eth

Tips for trading ETH

The price test at $1,677 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the negative zone, confirming the correct selling entry point for Ethereum.

As a result, there was a drop to nearly the support level of $1,634, which was missed by a hair's breadth. It seems the pressure on Ethereum may persist, and we should anticipate further sharp declines in the trading instrument, given the decrease in buying incentives and market optimism since last week.

The fact that ETH buyers missed out on $1,815 sooner or later had to lead to what we currently observe on the chart. It is better to be ready for the instrument's further decline, relying on scenarios 1 and 2.

 

 

Buy signal

Scenario 1: One can buy Ethereum today at the entry point near $1,684 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward $1,707 (thicker green line on the chart). Near the level of $1,707, it is better to close long positions and open short ones. Ethereum is unlikely to grow today, especiall

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Fed Officials Shift Focus to Inflation Amid European and British Currency Upside Momentum

Strong Bid In The USD

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 14.10.2020 08:48
Daily EdgeIt was turnaround Tuesday as risk-off came back rather aggressively leading to a steady bid in the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and a surprisingly strong Canadian Dollar, decoupled from the underperformance of other commodity-related assets (AUD or Gold). The Pound also suffered from the lack of clarity on Brexit.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket. After scanning through the news, there was no specific catalyst that may have been pin pointed to spark the run to safe haven assets. The dominant themes remain the fiscal stimulus talks, with a positive outcome ahead of the US election rather illusive while the Presidential polls continue to show Biden pulling further away in the lead. The deterioration in COVID-related cases worldwide and some setback in vaccine news was attributed as a factor not helping either.When it comes to today’s hot trade of the day, I’ve made a video where I walk viewers through a potential short setup in the AUD/USD during the last European session. This was a short clearly identified via my proprietary order flow script. Traders could have been exposed to a ridiculous 15:1 risk reward assuming they let the position run as it turned out to be a monster of a trade off an hourly supply area.Hot Trade Of The DayTo see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.   Insights – Hot Trade Of The DayIn this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice. 
GBP/USD Analysis: GBP Maintains Growth Momentum, Market Awaits US Inflation Report

Hot Trade: GBP/CHF

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 21.11.2020 08:42
The Daily EdgeThe first thing that comes to mind when analysing the currency space is how focused the market has become to the immediate future. In other words, short-term economic jitters due to stricter lockdowns in many parts of the world appear to be overriding any hopes for the longer-term vaccine-fuelled positivism and Trump’s presidential departure.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. The underperformance of the Aussie, despite positive economic news in the form of an upbeat Australian jobs report, is a telling sign of precisely the narrative I am referring to. The market remains very cautious to commit capital into risky assets at a time when the surge in COVID-19 cases globally may see economies take another hard hit.Very narrow ranges dominateAnother observation that reflects the convoluted state of affairs in the forex market includes the narrow ranges. Even if the Aussie was the weakest on Thursday, the net gains in the rest of forex indices were so minuscule, that the extension of the AUD bear trends became largely limited when compared to normal dynamics. In fact, by matching the EUR (strongest) vs the AUD (weakest), the EUR/AUD only rose 60 pips for the day, which is way below the daily ATR.This week has been unusually quiet in the forex market. It’s a major rarity to see the overall performance of currencies being encapsulated within excruciatingly narrow ranges of -/+ 0.10% through the London session. Remember, this session in the UK is characterised by being the most volatile for currencies given the amount of customers’ volumes. As traders we must remain patient and let the market come to us. This is one of those times when patience pays off.Hot trade of the dayIn this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity based on the concepts I teach. My video analysis below elaborates on the logic behind the trade.Global Prime offers one account type. ECN only, for all clients.Ivan Delgado
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

USD continues to weaken on hopes of further stimulus

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.12.2020 10:36
Euro Rises To The Highest Levels Since 2018The euro currency is posting strong gains, rising over one percent on the day. The gains largely on the back of a weakening US dollar.Earlier on Monday, the euro gave back the gains after testing the 1.2000 level. However, this decline saw prices retesting the trend line for support.A rebound from this trend line saw price action breaking past this previous resistance level.At the time of writing, the EURUSD currency pair is trading above the 1.2000 level.The Stochastics oscillator is however posting a lower high. This could signal a possible correction in the near term.The lower price level of 1.1900 is likely to act as support during this retracement.GBPUSD Attempts To Break The Trend LineThe British pound sterling is posting strong gains on the back of a weaker dollar. After price action consolidated above the 1.3300 level, the cable is attempting to push higher.For the moment, prices are stuck near the trend line. As long as the trend line holds as resistance, we could see the sideways consolidation to continue.However, in the event of a breakout off the trend line, then the GBPUSD will be aiming for the 1.3500 level next.For the moment, with the support level firmly established at 1.3300, the GBPUSD will be looking to make further gains to the upside.WTI Crude Oil Losing The 45.00 HandleOil prices are trading weaker on Tuesday. The declines come despite the US dollar taking a strong hit.The move to the downside comes after oil prices failed to make any big moves to the upside.As a result, WTI crude oil was consolidating around the 45.00 level for a considerable period of time.After losing this handle, oil prices are likely to push lower. The next key support is near the 43.50 level.However, we expect the pullback to see prices retracing the 45.00 handle.If resistance is firmly established here, then we could expect to see further declines down to the 43.50 level.Gold Prices Get A Boost From Weaker USDThe precious metal has been posting strong gains on the back of the US dollar. Gold prices are up nearly 2% intraday on Tuesday.The rebound also coincides with the impending correction in gold, as mentioned a day before. For the moment, we expect prices to retrace to the 1817.80 level.If this level holds, then gold prices could establish resistance. This will in turn renew the downside bias in the precious metal.The 1800 level once again comes into the picture, with the potential for gold to post further losses.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

USD remains soft as US stimulus talks drag on

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.12.2020 09:09
EURUSD Pulls Back Off Recent HighsThe euro currency was trading soft on Monday with price action closing nearly flat.This comes as the euro continues to post a modest descent after briefly testing above 1.2170 last Friday.For the moment, a local swing low has formed near 1.2080. As long as this low holds, we could see price action resuming the uptrend.However, a close below this low and a potential retracement back to this level could confirm the downside.The key support area is likely to come from the dynamic support of the trend line. This is likely to coincide near the 1.2000 level in the near term.GBPUSD Drops As Brexit Trade Concerns MountThe British pound sterling was trading rocky on Monday as prices were in a steady decline since morning.This comes as the UK and the EU continue with the post-Brexit trade talks which have failed. The GBPUSD fell, as a result, briefly slipping below the 1.3300 level of support.However, price recovered off the lows before managing to close above this level once again.For the moment, it seems like the 1.3300 level will hold out as support. But if price breaches this level, then we could expect further declines.The Stochastics oscillator is currently nearing the oversold levels, which could suggest a possible retracement in the near term.WTI Crude Oil Gives Back GainsOil prices are trading weaker, down about 0.18% on the day. The declines come after oil price posted steady gains into last Friday’s close.However, price action is pulling back after testing new highs of above 46.50. The declines could see price stalling near the 45.26 level of support.As long as this support holds, we could expect the upside to resume. Oil prices will need to break past the previous highs to confirm the continuation to the upside.However, failure to post new highs could signal a move lower.A close below 45.26 could potentially expose oil prices to test the support level of 43.50 next.Gold Prices Rise 1%, Breaking Past 1850The precious metal is posting a strong recovery as price action zoomed past the 1850 handle.The gains come after gold prices managed to settle comfortably above the key price level of 1818.80.With the 1850 level giving way to further gains, gold prices could continue higher.The next key level of interest is the 1911.50. But prices could likely test this level if there is some support forming near the current levels.This could mean that gold prices might retrace back to the 1817.80 or the 1850 levels.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

USD rises slightly off the two- and half-year lows

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 09.12.2020 16:00
Euro Drops As ECB Meeting LoomsThe euro currency’s declines accelerated on Wednesday. The common currency is trading below the 1.2100 level which it held over the past few days.The declines come as the ECB will be holding its monetary policy meeting. Speculation is high that the central bank will increase its bond purchases.The current declines could stall near the dynamic support off the rising trend line. This could see a confluence of the 1.2000 level holding up for the moment.However, if the 1.2000 level breaks, then the next key support to look for will be the 1.1900 level.To the upside, price action could stall near 1.2100.GBPUSD Volatile Within A Flat RangeThe British pound sterling is giving back the gains made earlier. The volatility stems as Brexit negotiations drag on with no clear plan yet.The GBPUSD is currently settled within 1.3483 and 1.3300 levels. While the lower end of the range was briefly tested earlier this week, it has held up.The current pace of declines could see the 1.3300 support level coming under pressure once again.If the cable loses this support, then we could expect to see further declines.The next key support level is near 1.3122.Crude Oil Falls Back To 45.50 SupportOil prices continue to trade weak above the 45.50 level. Prices fell once again on Wednesday, testing the 45.50 level of support.So far, no new highs have formed. This consolidation could lead to a potential correction if support gives way.Below the 45.50, the next key support area is seen at the 43.50 level. We could expect this support level to hold in the near term.It would also mean that oil prices could continue trading flat within the newly established range below the 45.50 level.The Stochastics oscillator is also signalling a move lower. This could possibly confirm the downside bias for the moment.Gold Edges Down To 1850 SupportThe precious metal is seen retesting the support level of 1850 once again.This comes as prices barely rose close to the 1880 level before giving back the gains. The market sentiment remains mixed leading to the rather flat price action for the moment.However, the 1850 level will be critical. If gold prices lose this handle, then we could expect further declines to the 1800 level once again.This would come as gold prices will likely test the 1817.80 level to the downside.
Tokyo Core CPI Falls Short at 2.8%, Powell and Ueda Address Jackson Hole Symposium, USD/JPY Sees Modest Gains

USD rebounds on vaccine and stimulus hopes

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.12.2020 09:40
Euro Drops As ECB Meeting LoomsThe euro currency’s declines accelerated on Wednesday. The common currency is trading below the 1.2100 level which it held over the past few days.The declines come as the ECB will be holding its monetary policy meeting. Speculation is high that the central bank will increase its bond purchases.The current declines could stall near the dynamic support off the rising trend line. This could see a confluence of the 1.2000 level holding up for the moment.However, if the 1.2000 level breaks, then the next key support to look for will be the 1.1900 level.To the upside, price action could stall near 1.2100.GBPUSD Volatile Within A Flat RangeThe British pound sterling is giving back the gains made earlier. The volatility stems as Brexit negotiations drag on with no clear plan yet.The GBPUSD is currently settled within 1.3483 and 1.3300 levels. While the lower end of the range was briefly tested earlier this week, it has held up.The current pace of declines could see the 1.3300 support level coming under pressure once again.If the cable loses this support, then we could expect to see further declines.The next key support level is near 1.3122.Crude Oil Falls Back To 45.50 SupportOil prices continue to trade weak above the 45.50 level. Prices fell once again on Wednesday, testing the 45.50 level of support.So far, no new highs have formed. This consolidation could lead to a potential correction if support gives way.Below the 45.50, the next key support area is seen at the 43.50 level. We could expect this support level to hold in the near term.It would also mean that oil prices could continue trading flat within the newly established range below the 45.50 level.The Stochastics oscillator is also signalling a move lower. This could possibly confirm the downside bias for the moment.Gold Edges Down To 1850 SupportThe precious metal is seen retesting the support level of 1850 once again.This comes as prices barely rose close to the 1880 level before giving back the gains. The market sentiment remains mixed leading to the rather flat price action for the moment.However, the 1850 level will be critical. If gold prices lose this handle, then we could expect further declines to the 1800 level once again.This would come as gold prices will likely test the 1817.80 level to the downside.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Tech Leads Market Declines on a Down Wednesday

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.12.2020 17:22
After the market rose to intraday highs on Wednesday (Dec 9), the indices pulled back and closed in the red - largely led by the tech sector.News RecapThe Dow closed 105 points lower for a loss of 0.35%, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9% for its worst day since Oct. 30. The tech-heavy index also snapped a four-day winning streak. The small-cap Russell 2000 also fell by 0.82%.Wednesday was a resumption of the rotation out of tech that we saw in early November. Tech led the declines, and in particular, chip stocks such as Lam Research (LRCX) which fell by nearly 3.5%.Other big 2020 winners fell sharply on Wednesday as well such as Tesla (TSLA) which fell nearly 7% and Netflix (NFLX) which fell 3.72%.Stocks reversed downwards after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Politico that Republicans and Democrats were “still looking for a way forward” on stimulus negotiations.COVID-19 continues to worsen in the U.S, but Tuesday’s rollout of Pfizer’s vaccine in the U.K., has spurred optimism. However, there are some concerns about people with a history of allergic reactions receiving the vaccine.Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may be just days away from approving Pfizer’s vaccine.COVID-19 continues surging to uncontrolled and grim levels. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the U.S. hit 3,000 deaths in one day.We may have reached a crossroads in the market between mixed short-term sentiment, and mid-term and long-term optimism. In the short-term, there will be some optimistic days where investors rotate into cyclicals and value stocks, and pessimistic days where investors rotate into tech and “stay-at-home” names. On other days, such as Wednesday, the markets may broadly decline, and be led by specific sectors. On Wednesday, for example, the leading laggard was tech - specifically high flying chip stocks.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.According to Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, “Renewed lockdown restrictions in response to the third wave of the pandemic are likely to weigh on the economy in coming months, but we don’t expect a double-dip…(but) the economy could be booming next spring if enough of us are inoculated against the virus.”Other Wall Street strategists are bullish on 2021 as well. According to a JPMorgan note to clients released on Wednesday, a widely available vaccine will lift stocks to new highs in 2021.“Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year,” JPMorgan said. “We expect markets to be driven by recovery from the COVID-19 crisis at the back of highly effective vaccines and continued extraordinary monetary and fiscal support.”JPMorgan’s S&P 500 target for 2021 is 4,400. This implies a nearly 20% gain from Wednesday’s closing price.On the other hand, for the rest of 2020, and maybe early on into 2021, markets will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound.Additionally, since election week, the rally has invoked concerns of overheating with bad fundamentals. Commerce Street Capital CEO, Dory Wiley, advised caution in this overheated market. He pointed to 90% of stocks on the NYSE trading above their 200-day moving average as an indication that valuations might be stretched.“Timing the market is not always well-advised and paring back can miss out on some gains the next two months, but after such good returns in clearly a terrible fundamentals year, I think taking some profits and moving to cash, not bonds, makes some sense here,” he said.Amidst the current fears of a stall in economic recovery with further COVID-19-related shutdowns and no stimulus, it is very possible that short-term downside persists. However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, it could mean more market gains.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with conviction that another crash or bear market will come. If anything, the mixed sentiment will keep markets relatively sideways.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Can the Dow Stay Above 30,000?Since piercing the 30,000 level for a second time last Friday, and reaching record highs, the Dow Jones has largely traded sideways and hovered around the 30,000 level. There are some questions in the short-term as to whether or not the Dow can maintain this level. Outside of the Russell 2000, the Dow may be the index most vulnerable to news and sentiment.Volume has also quietly declined this week as well, which poses doubts on how sustainable the 30,000 level is. Low volume, especially a declining trend in volume, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.On pessimistic “sell the news” kinds of days, the Dow may have more downside pressure than other indices. Many cyclical stocks that depend on a strong economic recovery trade on this index, and any change in sentiment can adversely affect their performances.It is hard to say with certainty that a drop in the index will be strong and sharp relative to the gains since March - let alone November. But for now, as seen in the last week, I believe that we could be in a sideways holding pattern while investors digest all the news being thrown at them on a daily basis. For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

US dollar unmoved as euro brushes aside ECB stimulus

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.12.2020 09:03
Euro Firms Up After ECB MeetingThe euro currency regains its bullish momentum on the day. The gains came after the common currency posted declines for four consecutive days.This led prices to fall and test the trend line which offered dynamic support. Following this, the euro made a quick rebound and is attempting to rise higher.For the moment, price action will need to challenge the previous lows near 1.2150.If the euro can break past this level, then we expect to see new highs forming.However, if the common currency reverses near this level we expect a possible correction down to the 1.1900 level.GBPUSD To Remain Volatile Into Sunday Brexit MeetingThe GBPUSD currency pair continues to trade volatile, in reaction to the Brexit trade talks.Both the EU and the UK have until Sunday to finalize the deals. We expect the GBPUSD will therefore continue trading mixed into the weekend.For the moment, consolidation is taking place near the 1.3300 level of support.If price action closes firmly below this level, then further downside is possible. The bias remains completely mixed at this point.To the upside, GBPUSD will need to retest the 1.348 – 1-3500 level. Only a strong close above this level could confirm further gains.WTI Crude Oil Attempts To Log New HighsOil prices are trading bullish following days of consolidation near the 45.00 level.The gains are driven by news about two oilfields in Iraq under attack.For the moment, with the support level at 45.00 being establishing oil prices have room to rise.Furthermore, the next key challenge will be the psychologically important 50.00 level. However, the rise to this level is likely to be gradual.Oil prices will need to establish support near the upper levels to continue maintaining the bullish momentum.Gold Prices Continue To Remain Trading FlatThe precious metal did not react much to the news of the ECB’s stimulus expansion. As a result, gold prices remain fairly settled above the 1850 levels for the moment.As long as this support holds, we can expect price action to trade flat.To the upside, gains will be very likely capped near the 1900 -1911 levels.To the downside, if the support level gives way, then gold prices could be looking at steeper declines.Prices will likely fall back to the next key support area near 1817.80.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Is the Vaccine a Game-Changer for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.12.2020 16:25
The vaccines are coming – we’re saved! Although the arriving vaccines are great for humanity, they are bad for the price of gold.In November, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, had demonstrated evidence of an efficacy rate above 90% against COVID-19, in the first interim efficacy analysis. As Dr. Albert Bourla, Pfizer Chairman and CEO, said:Today is a great day for science and humanity. The first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine’s ability to prevent COVID-19.Indeed, the announcement is great news! After all, the vaccine is the ultimate weapon against the virus. There’s no doubt that we will get the vaccine one day. Thank God for scientists – they are really clever people who work hard to develop a safe vaccine! Why can’t we have more of them instead of so many economists? As well, the pandemic triggered unprecedented global cooperation to develop a vaccine as quickly as possible. The funds are enormous, while the bureaucrats eventually decided to behave like decent human beings for once and eased their stance in order to speed up the whole process. Great!But… there is always a “but”. You see, there are some problems related to Pfizer’s vaccine . First, all we know comes from the press release, but the company didn’t provide any data for a review. Second, the efficacy rate announced by the company pertains only to the seven days after the second dose is taken – we still don’t know how effective the vaccine is in the longer term, and how long immunity lasts. Third, we still don’t know the efficacy of the vaccine among the elderly and people with underlying conditions – or, the most affected people by COVID-19. Fourth, the vaccine is based on mRNA technology, and such a vaccine was never approved for human use. There is always a first time, but new technologies always give birth to some concerns, which could ultimately reduce the public’s preference to get vaccinated.Another problem is that this vaccine requires two doses that are taken 21 days apart. It delays the moment of immunization and again reduces the motivation to take the vaccine – yes, some people are so lazy, and/or they don’t like injections so much (for whatever reason; we’re not debating whether it’s justified or not) that they can refuse to be vaccinated.Moreover, Pfizer’s vaccine must be stored at a temperature of about -70°C (-94°F), which is quite low indeed, and can be quite chilly in shorts (unless you are Wim Hof ). The problem is transportation and distribution – you see, many hospitals - to say nothing of rural physicians and pharmacies, and healthcare systems in developing countries - do not have adequate freezers to store the vaccine. Last but not least, even if scientists develop the best possible vaccine, it remains useless unless people accept to take it – and this is far from being certain, given the pandemic denial movement and fear of vaccines.Sure, one could say that all these points are not very problematic. After all, Pfizer is not the only company working on the vaccine. There are actually more than 150 coronavirus vaccines in development across the world. For example, Moderna’s vaccine can be stored at a much higher temperature – a more comfortable -20°C (-4°F), So even if Pfizer’s vaccine turns out to not be the best, other, even better vaccines will arrive on the market – and a lack of any vaccine can transform into a crisis of abundance.That’s true, but the sad truth is that it’s unlikely that any vaccine will be widely available until mid-2021 . Pfizer, for example, announced that it hoped to produce 50 million doses by the end of 2020. As the vaccine needs two doses, only 25 million people could be vaccinated this year. So don’t count on being among this group – countries will prioritize healthcare workers, social workers and uniformed services first, and the elderly next. It means that we will not return to a state of normalcy very soon, and most of us will still need to wear masks, practice social distancing and… wash hands!In the meantime, the U.S. is about to enter Covid hell , as Michael Osterholm, one of Biden’s advisers on the epidemic , said . Indeed, the country is nearing 11 million reported COVID-19 cases, and the coronavirus has already killed more than 240,000 Americans. But the worst can still lie ahead for the U.S. As one can see in the chart below, the epidemiological curve is clearly exponential and the daily number of new cases has touched 200,000! Yup, you read it correctly, about two hundred thousand people are infected each day. You don’t have to be a mathematician to figure out that at such a rate of infections, the healthcare system will collapse soon.What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, although the arriving vaccines are great for humanity, they are bad for the price of the yellow metal. The pandemic greatly supported gold prices. So, the expected end of the epidemic in the U.S. should be negative for the shiny metal.However, there are two important caveats to this statement. First, there is still a long way to go before widespread vaccination and a true end to the pandemic. In the interim, we still need to face the COVID-19 challenge, so gold shouldn’t suddenly fall out of favor.Second, gold reacted not only to the pandemic itself, but also – or even more – to the world response of governments and central banks to the health and economic crisis . The easy monetary policy and accommodative fiscal policy will not disappear only because of the vaccine’s arrival. Actually, the harsh winter or “Covid hell” that awaits America will force the Fed and Treasury to continue or even to expand their stimuli, which is good news for gold prices from the fundamental perspective .Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Stocks Close Mixed Amid Poor Jobless Data, COVID-19 Fears, and Stimulus Doubts

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.12.2020 16:27
Stocks closed mixed on Thursday (Dec. 10) after a new report showed that new jobless claims resurged to their worst level in months, while COVID-19 cases climbed to record numbers, and stimulus gridlock continues.News RecapThe Dow Jones fell 69.55 or .23%, the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.54%.For the week ended Dec. 5th, 853,000 new jobless claims were reported. This is the worst level since September, the first increase in 4 weeks, and well above the market estimates of 725,000.A U.S. FDA advisory panel voted 17 to 4 to approve Pfizer’s vaccine for emergency use. The full FDA approval could grant emergency use authorization of Pfizer’s vaccine as early as Friday.Stimulus talks continued to slog forward . While lawmakers plan to pass a one-week government funding extension through to Dec. 18, to buy more time to craft a stimulus deal before year’s end, there are still significant hurdles to cross. Democrats and Republicans apparently have found consensus in some areas such as PPP loans, but issues including state and local aid, liability protections, unemployment assistance and stimulus checks are still dividing Congress.After DoorDash (DASH) IPO’d on Tuesday, and surged, AirBnB (ABNB) followed suit and closed nearly 113% higher on Thursday.This has been the most lethal week yet for COVID-19 in the U.S. Thursday saw a record 229,000+ cases and over 3,100 deaths. The worst may not be over yet either. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.There is simply too much short-term uncertainty right now to predict what the next 1-3 months will be like. In the short-term, there will be optimistic days where investors rotate into cyclicals and value stocks, and pessimistic days where there will be a broad sell-off or rotation into “stay-at-home” names. Thursday’s session, for example, was a reflection of pessimistic sentiment, and a rotation back into tech. Other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 9), tech may sharply sell-off and lead the declines.In the mid-term and long-term, however, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will likely stabilize, while optimism and relief will permeate the markets. The FDA advisory committee’s approval of Pfizer’s vaccine for emergency usage is certainly a step in the right direction. We could be just days away from vaccinations finally happening in America. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Markets will continue to wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for a 2021 economic reopening. This is simply the lay of the land nowadays. More positive vaccine news seemingly trickles in by the day despite increasingly horrifying COVID-19 numbers, economic news, and political news.Because of how much the markets have heated the last 6-7 weeks, a correction could be a welcome sign. While short-term downside pressure could certainly persist based on days where bad news outweighs good news, due to this “tug of war” between sentiments, any subsequent move downwards would likely be modest in comparison to the gains since the bottom in March and since the U.S. election at the start of November. The vaccine is simply the “injection” that the markets need right now. It is truly hard to say with conviction that another crash or bear market will come. If anything, the mixed sentiment could keep markets trading relatively sideways.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of one “driver” and one “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingMaterials (XLB) The materials sector, as represented by the XLB ETF (shown above) , has been one of the largest beneficiaries of the vaccine rally. Vaccine news briefly sent the XLB ETF to its 2020 high in November. However, since then, the ETF has traded relatively sideways, and has slightly declined this week.Cyclical sectors such as materials are set to be the biggest winners from an economic reopening in 2021. However, ever since peaking at $72.41 a share, the ETF’s volume has plummeted and stayed low. There are not enough strong fundamentals to justify calling this sector a BUY at this time.I do like this ETF’s modest decline on Thursday (Dec. 10), and generally this week. But for me, it is not a large enough pullback for a convincing buy. I believe that the sector could pull back further or stay in a sideways pattern for the rest of the month. For the materials ETF to come back, exceed its 52-week high, and pierce that $72 resistance level, a stimulus package MUST pass ASAP, and a COVID-19 vaccine must be efficiently rolled out and scalable. If this happens and a near-term economic slowdown can be somewhat averted, then materials could benefit. But for now, my view is muddled.For the time being, there is too much uncertainty to make a conviction call. Therefore, this is a HOLD for the short-term. However, I am considerably more bullish on materials in the long-term. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)Although the U.S. Dollar somewhat recovered earlier in the week and pierced the 91 level, it plunge again on Thursday. I have been calling this dollar weakness for weeks despite the low level and expect the decline to continue.The world’s reserve currency is still hovering around its 2-year low and has plunged in excess of 12% since March. After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30, it has also returned right back towards that level. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while emerging market indices and currencies continue to grossly outperform this perceived safe asset.Further illustrating the dollar’s decline has been its performance relative to emerging markets. Just compare the performance of the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) relative to the Invesco DB USD IDX Bullish ETF (UUP) since January. The difference continues to widen too.Many believe that the dollar could fall further as well due to a multitude of headwinds.If the world returns to relative normalcy within the next year, investors may be more “risk-on” and less “risk-off.” Which means that the dollar’s value will decline further.Additionally, because of all of the economic stimulus combined with record low-interest rates, the dollar’s value has declined and could have more room to fall. Do not forget that the Fed plans on holding interest rates this low for at least another two years. For the dollar’s value, rates remaining this low for two years is an eternity.As the world’s reserve currency, this plunge in value is concerning both in the short-term and mid-term for the US economy. A declining dollar means the strengthening of other foreign currencies- and this has already been happening. For example, the Australian dollar has now officially hit its highest level in 2 ½ years against the U.S. dollar . This may not be the end either.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount. The RSI at nearly 30 reflects this. But I just have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

What Markets To Focus On This Monday?

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 14.12.2020 02:22
The Daily EdgeThe Sterling has been given a major boost in the open of the Asian session as the UK and the EU agreed to extend post-Brexit trade talks beyond Sunday following a call between leaders earlier on Sunday. In a joint statement, Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was "responsible at this point to go the extra mile".To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. Amid the absence of fundamental catalysts elsewhere, the Pound continues to dominate the headlines. The volatility around the currency is not for the faint-hearted as liquidity in the market quickly dries up each and every time that a Brexit-related headlines alters the market perception towards a deal or not deal in the trade talks. Not the safest conditions for market makers.By going through my scan of the key movers in the currency space, aside from the perky Pound, the commodity-linked currencies have been the best movers as of late. The Euro, the Swissy and the USD are off to a rocky start this week, especially the latter, extending its multi-month downtrend whose origin dates back to the COVID-19 led spike from March this year. Quite a trend!Aside from the Brexit talks going down to the wire, the events to pencil in the calendar for traders this week include. The European and US PMIs, alongside US retail sales, all on Wednesday. The very same day, in the American afternoon, the biggest event in the form of the FOMC takes place. Early Thursday in Asia, volatility is expected to be rich as well with the release of the New Zealand GDP data, followed soon after by the Australian jobs report. Later on Thursday, in European hours, the BoE and the SNB will meet. Lastly, on Friday, the BoJ must be accounted for.Analysis of the Forex trendsIn my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.https://youtu.be/nNVGXm7rFTc20 Commodities available to trade at Global Prime.Ivan Delgado
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

The Silver Permabull

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.12.2020 11:08
As experienced traders, you rarely want to take an extreme position. Being biased isn’t useful for objective chart analysis. Many dare to do that anyhow since no one remembers you making a bad call 15 years ago, but if you were right you can quote: “I told you so”. The other side of the coin is that trend needs to be identified early and then played just right since there is no grander edge than directional momentum. The Silver Permabull. We aren’t after fame and glory. Midas Touch provides data as accurately as possible supporting good wealth preservation and wealth creation. We provided many principles and data about Silver over the last two years to shed light on a possible bull run in Silver. It was spot on to advise entries in March when Silver was trading still at US$12.00. We also provided readers with quite a few more low-risk entries. These to build a long term position with remainder runners (see our quad exit strategy) for the long term hold. Silver, Weekly Chart, The second leg: Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 10th, 2020 Now that we have the first successful leg with substantial profit-taking completed, we find a high likelihood for continuation into a possible second leg. After a sideways zone from September this year we see a progression from the lows of this sideways channel through its range. After that a possible initiation through a breakout of its upper bounds into a second leg. Our projections are extremely conservative since typically second legs are the longest legs and as such a doubling in price from here is more than likely.     Silver, Daily Chart, May be like this: Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 11th, 2020 It isn’t quite clear how the painted scenario of much higher prices will unfold from a small time frame perspective. We drew the most likely scenario above on the daily chart. This, that or the other entries will be posted in our free Telegram channel in real-time. The emphasis here is on the general probability. It points from a seasonality perspective to typically higher prices in December and January for this commodity. Typical year end hiccups especially this year can not distract the professional from the larger picture. Silver, Monthly Chart, Where are we heading? Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of December 11th, 2020 Where thinking in extremes starts making sense is in not limiting projections, if reasonable substantiated factors speak for extended moves. These can have beyond the typical three-legged extensions a fourth and a fifth leg as well. Here it is important to add to technical tools fundamental analysis. Why extremes in this one rare instance are useful is that exits are way more meaningful than entries. Realistic target assessment is the key factor of profitability. One fundamental fact about Silver easily overlooked is its rarity in comparison versus other precious metals in terms of “loss”. What we mean by “loss” is that in terms of weight there is about twice as much mined Silver in bullion in the world than Gold. But the rate of “loss” due to industrial use is much grander than Golds. From over fifty billion troy ounces ever mined, less than five billion remain. It is important to keep that in mind when comparing the estimate of about forty times Silver in weight being still unmined in comparison to Gold. In short, due to the high industrial demand for Silver and its high “loss” rate (it is hard to recycle), it qualifies from a long-term view as a permabull´s friend. It is this “loss” rate that can make it more and more precious over time. Silver the permabull You can call it what you like. What it comes down to is taking low-risk trades. If you can do so in the direction of a trend, even better. After Silver broke a multiyear sideways range to the upside a new long-term phase for Silver has been confirmed. With a trend on your side in alignment with fundamentals that are substantially supporting especially physical Silver long-term holds, you can not only preserve your wealth but also expand your wealth too. An opportunity that arises rarely and might be suitable for a permabull. We post real time entries and exits for the silver market in our free Telegram channel. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Korbinian Koller|December 11th, 2020|Tags: low risk, Silver, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments
Bitcoin riches through a routine

Bitcoin riches through a routine

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.12.2020 19:24
For some, the hair stands up when they hear the word “routine”. For market participants, it is one of the best ways to stop losing money. How often have you violated your best intentions? “I will never run a stop again”. “I will be patiently waiting for my target and not exit too early”. “Why did I not wait for my entry signal and not…”. The list is long and still, you feel like Sisyphus despite best intentions violating your own rules over and over and over again. Why? Bitcoin riches through a routine. The reason being that under stress is that we resort to our unconscious mind where we run programmed patterns. The subconscious being stronger than our motivations will always win. The only chance one has is to reprogram these patterns and that is best done by a daily routine that repeats as often as it takes to overpower the old subconscious unuseful programming. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Holding on to long positions: BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2020 Looking at the weekly chart, anybody exited their trades early, must with agony look back asking “why didn’t I just ride the trend”. This agony will continue if a better routine isn’t implemented. We developed a quad exit strategy that supports better exit management from a psychological perspective. With prices quintupling since March this year, we currently do not see low-risk entry points. We also do not find ourselves forced just yet to take further partial profits with Bitcoin showing continuous strength even at these levels. BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, One last time: BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 7th, 2020 If you give the second weekly chart a look, in last week’s Bitcoin chartbook publication you will see that we forecasted a bounce at US$18,089. This prognostic manifested as the above daily chart shows in detail and we were able to post this trade in our free telegram channel. The already partial profits taken ensuring risk elimination and as such a free your mind to enjoy unencumbered position management for the remaining position. This is also a fruit of routine. A weekly routine, that we share through our weekly publications. The daily chart shows that prices push into the distribution zone from the highs in 2017 (red horizontal box). A volume analysis for prices of the last two weeks shows support at US$19,045. The signs of strength for prices not immediately bouncing with this strong overhead shows a strength that makes us hold on to our entire long exposure. This allows for further profits should prices break to new all-time highs without the need to open a new high-risk breakout trade. BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, It is worth it: BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2020 It doesn’t stop there. Just like the lack of a business plan is a near grantee of failure to a business, long term routines in trading are essential. Only with a clear vision from a top-down approach in time frame addressed routinely, warrants for a successful outcome. If you have a brief look at our chart book from October 6th 2020, you will find detailed target anticipation from a timing perspective which came to fruition with astounding accuracy. At Midas Touch, we pride ourselves to go the extra mile to not procrastinate in all time aspects of disciplined planning. That being said, the above chart is an extension in the forecast, this time from a price prediction perspective. We employ partial profit-taking based on our quad exit strategy. Bitcoin riches through a routine One can’t expect to overwrite a useful strong subconscious pattern like fight-flight which urges us strongly to take early profits. For that, a solution like our quad exit strategy is more useful. For any self-inflicted limiting belief though, a daily routine can be the cure for a long painful past in the markets where well-intended motivations were not effective to stop money-losing behavior in the markets.  Diligent practice and repetitive rehearsal as professional athletes do, does the trick. The importance is to accept this being a bit more work than just making up your mind and promise to not do the unwanted behavior ever again but rather rehearsing the newly wanted behavior for an extended period in your daily routine. We post real time entries and exits for many cryptocurrencies in our free Telegram channel. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Korbinian Koller|December 8th, 2020|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

How Will Gold Perform This Winter?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.12.2020 15:14
  Brace yourselves, winter is coming! It may be a harsh period for the United States, but much better for gold. Some of you may have seen snow this year already, but the astronomical winter is still ahead of us. Unfortunately, it could be a really dark winter. Instead of joyful snowball battles and making snowmen, we will have to contend with the coronavirus . The vaccines will definitely help (the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered this week), but their widespread distribution will begin only next year. So, we still have to deal with the pandemic taking its toll here and now – as the chart below shows, the number of daily COVID-19 cases is still above 200,000 in the U.S. The increasing cases are one thing, but the soaring numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalizations is another, even more terrifying, issue. As one can see in the chart below, the number of patients in U.S. hospitals has reached a record of 100,000, due to a surge in the aftermath of Thanksgiving. Importantly, the situation may get even worse , as people spend more time indoors in winter, and large family gatherings during Christmas and Hanukkah are still ahead us… I know that you are fed up with the date about the epidemic . And I don’t write about the pandemic because I’ve become an epidemiologist or want to scary you; for that all you need to do is read the press headlines or watch TV for a while. I cover the pandemic because it still impacts the global economy, and in particular, it explains why the U.S. economic growth is slowing down. You see, in the summer and autumn of 2020, America’s economy roared back. But that might be a song of the past. As I wrote in Tuesday’s (Dec 8) edition of the Fundamental Gold Report , November’s employment situation report was disappointingly weak, and the high frequency data also point to a slowdown. For example, the number of diners and restaurants, as well as hotel and airline bookings, have declined in recent weeks. So, the increased spread of the coronavirus slows the economy down. A growing share of Americans, even those who were previously skeptical about the epidemiological dangers, worry about catching the virus, thereby reducing their social activity. However, there are also other factors behind the most recent economic slowdown. First, the previous recovery was caused by a low base and the end of the Great Lockdown . The deep economic crisis seen in the spring, with accompanying coronavirus restrictions, will not happen again. Therefore, the initial recovery was fast, but the pace of economic growth had to slow down. Second, the easy fiscal policy helped to increase the GDP , but Congress has so far failed to agree on another stimulus package.   Implications for Gold What does it all mean for the yellow metal? Well, the economy could rise again when the vaccines become widely available. However, we will face a harsh winter first. It means that the coming weeks might be positive for gold – especially considering that in recent years, the shiny metal rallied in January (or sometimes even in the second half of December). But what’s next for gold prices? Will they plunge in 2021 after the rollout of the vaccines? Well, the vaccines are in a sense, a real game changer for the world next year. As they revived the risk appetite, they hit the safe-haven demand for gold. So, yes, there is a downward risk, although it could already be priced in. However, the vaccines are a game changer only in a sense . You see, the vaccines might protect us from the virus, but they will not solve all our economic problems , therefore, caution is still required. On Monday (Dec 7), the Bank of International Settlements warned the public that “we are moving from the liquidity to the solvency phase of the crisis”. Actually, the post-winter, post-pandemic environment might be beneficial for gold. You see, gold is a portfolio-diversifier which serves as a safe haven asset during a period of turmoil, but it performs the best during the very early phase of an economic recovery – especially as the central banks will continue the policy of zero interest rates . Thus, the new stimulus package, low real interest rates , worries about the U.S. dollar strength and debt sustainability, and fears of inflation , which will accompany the economic revival in 2021, should support gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

PMs: Looking for Key Triggers

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.12.2020 15:15
  The question on everyone’s mind is: when is it a good time to buy some gold or silver after they bottom? The answer to that question is simple: when key triggers are met. Count-trend rallies in gold or silver don’t mean that they have enough energy and momentum to keep climbing. Miners also don’t have enough strength to lead the way in a fresh climb upwards for the PMs, so everything we see now only speaks of corrective action. Gold moved higher yesterday (Dec 8), while silver and mining stocks went in the opposite direction. It seems that the latter moved in tune with the trend, while the move in the former was rather accidental. Why? Because gold already invalidated yesterday’s daily rally at the moment of writing these words (in the overnight trading). Yes, the closing prices matter the most, but if gold was really after an important breakout, it wouldn’t have wiped out the previous day’s entire rally just several hours after the closing bell. I previously wrote that it had been quite possible for gold to rally up to its September lows, and the low in gold futures in terms of the closing prices was $1,866.30. Monday’s closing price for gold futures had been exactly $1,866, and yesterday, gold closed at $1874.90. At the moment of writing these words, it’s trading at $1,864.60. So, did anything particularly bullish happen on the gold market yesterday? Not really. But can gold move even higher from here? As discouraging (or encouraging, depending on one’s perspective) as this answer may be, it’s a “yes”. The US Dollar Index is currently trading at about 90.8, and its downside target is at about 90, so there is room for another short-term slide. Such a slide would be likely to trigger a rally in the yellow metal. How high could the rally go during this final part of the counter-trend corrective upswing? Perhaps to the mid-November high of about $1,900. Even though gold might theoretically rally all the way up to the early-November high, I don’t see this as being likely. Meanwhile, silver formed a tiny reversal yesterday and it’s moving lower today. Silver reversed after touching the declining resistance line, which is also the upper border of the triangle pattern. Did we just see a top in silver? That’s quite likely, but not certain. I wouldn’t be surprised if silver took one final attempt to break higher and rally and topped close to the early November high. After all, silver is known for its fake breakouts . Moreover, please note that silver has a triangle-vertex-based reversal point in the final part of the month, which could imply that this is where silver forms a final, or temporary bottom. This could have implications also for the rest of the precious metals sector, as its parts tend to move together in the short and medium term. Given the bearish post-Thanksgiving seasonality in the case of PMs and the tendency for them to form local bottoms in the middle or second half of December, it seems likely that the above is likely to be some kind of bottom.   Mining stocks moved 0.41% lower yesterday, despite a higher close in gold futures and the GLD ETF . The general stock market moved slightly higher yesterday, so it wasn’t the reason behind miners’ weakness. This lack of strength confirms the points that I made yesterday and further validates the bearish picture: What we see in the PMs is just a correction, not the start of a new, powerful upleg. If it was, miners would have been leading the way higher. We currently see the opposite. Over a week ago, I wrote that miners could move to the previous lows and by moving to them, they could verify them as resistance . The previous – October – low is at $36.01 in intraday terms and at $36.52 in terms of the daily closing prices. Yesterday, miners closed at $36.50. So, while gold closed at its September low (in terms of the daily closing prices), gold miners closed at their October low. If the USD Index declines one more time before bottoming, and gold rallies, miners could also move temporarily higher. How high could they move? I think that the mid-November high of about $38 (intraday high: $38.35, daily close: $38.01) would provide the kind of strong resistance that miners might not be able to breach. Still, this upside is based on two big IFs. The first “if” is if the USD Index declines to 90 or slightly lower – it’s extremely oversold, and the CoT reports confirm it. The second “if” is if the precious metals sector really reacts to USD’s decline with a visible rally. In the past few weeks, gold shrugged off quite a few USDX declines. And miners shrugged off even more positive news. Consequently, it seems that trying to take a profit from the possible, but not very likely, immediate-term upswing is not the best idea from the risk to reward point of view. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the downside target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

USD flat amid new talks of stimulus bill

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 16.12.2020 09:16
EURUSD Likely To Challenge Previous HighsThe euro currency is once again back on the front foot as price action inches closer to test the previously established two and a half year high at 1.2176.The gains come as the common currency eased back from its declines earlier this week. Currently, the upside momentum is held by the support from the trend line.However, it will now be critical for the euro to break past the previous barrier. Failure to break out from this two and half year high could result in a possible reversal in price action.This would in turn once again shift focus to the downside.The key support level is near 1.1900. Therefore, in the event that the EURUSD fails to break out any higher, we could probably expect a near term correction in price action.GBPUSD Continues To Trade Flat, Above 1.3300The British pound sterling continues to trade flat albeit, price action is firmly supported above the 1.3300 level.Following the gap higher at the start of the week, the GBPUSD has been pushing lower. For the moment, there remains an unfilled gap from Monday’s open.To the upside, price action is trading well below the key upper range of 1.3483. The weakness in the US dollar is currently helping the British pound to push higher.However, it is unlikely to see any major gains coming in the near term.We expect the sideways range to be held until there is some kind of a resolution to the ongoing Brexit talks between the EU and the UK.WTI Crude Oil Advances To A Nine-Month HighOil prices are trading bullish once again following the previous few sessions where price action was rather subdued.As the bullish momentum slowly grips, oil prices are seen advancing to the previously formed nine-month high.A continuation to the upside could possibly see prices testing a new ten-month high shortly. This would mean that prices would near the 48.00 level for the moment.It would also put oil prices just $2 away from the psychological barrier of $50. The current gains to the upside are supported both by the technicals and the fundamentals in the markets.The key support level at 45.00 remains the downside for the moment.However, it is unlikely that we would see a sharp correction coming anytime soon.Gold Prices Back Near 1850 Technical ResistanceThe precious metal is trading over 1% on Tuesday.The gains come amid fresh talks in the US Congress about a new proposed coronavirus stimulus bill. If this bill is passed, this would put an end to the weeks of speculation in the markets.Gold prices have been trading rather flat after rising above the key support level of 1818.80 in early December this year.For the moment, the technical resistance level of 1850 is being tested once again.However, the stochastics oscillator on the four-hour chart is likely to print lower.This could mean that gold prices could once again retreat back and settle within the range of 1850 and 1818.80.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

USD subdued on US Stimulus and Brexit deal outcome

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 14.12.2020 08:00
EURUSD Fails To Post New Highs The euro currency’s rebound after the ECB meeting saw prices rising only to highs near 1.2150. Following this, price action retreated, edging closer back to the rising trend line. We expect the trend line support to once again come into the picture. As long as this support holds, the EURUSD might be looking to aim higher. In the event that the common currency loses the trend line support, then we expect price action to fall toward the 1.2050 level, marking the December 9 lows. To the upside, the EURUSD will have to break out above the previous highs of 1.2178 to continue the uptrend. GBPUSD Loses The 1.3300 Support The British pound sterling slipped below the support level of 1.3300 on Friday. This comes as Brexit talks come to a head. For the moment, the lower support near 1.3122 remains the key price point. As long as this support level holds, there is scope for the GBPUSD to push higher. However, prices will need to break out strongly above the 1.3300 level to continue the uptrend. This will then open the GBPUSD to the upper resistance level of 1.3483. To the downside, a close below 1.3122 could open the way for the cable to retest the 1.3000 round number support once again. Oil Prices Pull Back From A Nine-Month High WTI Crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday to rise close to the 48.00 level. However, prices pulled back into Friday’s close. This comes as the 45.00 level is firmly establishing as support. Thus, a pullback could see this support level being tested once again. The Stochastics oscillator on the 4-hour chart remains mixed. There is enough room for prices to breakout higher. Above the 48.00 level, oil prices will be contending with a retest of the 50.00 level. To the downside, below the 45.00 support area, a correction could bring the commodity down to test the 44.00 handle next. Gold Settles Within The 1850 And 1825 Range The precious metal continues to trade flat for the second consecutive session. As a result, price action is trading within a tight band of the 1850 and the 1825 levels in the near term. The Stochastics oscillator remains biased to the downside. This could mean that if gold prices lose the 1817.80 level of support, then we expect the downside to continue. The next key level of support will be near the 1750 level. It would also mean that gold prices will be moving lower beyond the 30th November lows of 1764.22. To the upside, price action will need to firmly close above 1850 and continue to the 1900 level to establish the uptrend.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Bitcoin – mastering the turning point

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.12.2020 12:04
What we mean with the very first is that only for the reversal pattern of a “V” formation one wants to be the very first one to enter into a trade. This is the rarest occurrence of a turning point and for any other tuning points i.e.: double/triple bottoms, ranges, diamonds, rounding bottoms, divergences to name a few you’re always too early and as such not just a sitting duck for possible stops to be triggered but have additional risk due to capital exposed over time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, No need to be first:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 15th, 2020In the daily chart, we can see our principle in action. Shorting the market on a triple top into the distribution resistance zone (red box) would make you a sitting duck. A closer look shows prices already trading above POC (point of control) of a volume analysis, indicating strength. This is confirmed by a strong trend overall (yellow trend line) and strong price behavior (daily price closes are indicating strength). You do not want to be always first just based on a price level. It requires more in-depth analysis and stacking of odds to enter or exit positions. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Overbought:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 15th, 2020A view from a linear regression perspective (directional lines red, turquoise, green) shows how extended prices are in the weekly time frame. It puts Bitcoin into a sell zone. Bitcoin is trading in stretched standard deviation levels and could easily snap back to its mean (thin red line). Taking partial profits if exposed from lower levels provides insurance for a possible retracement. Our quad exit strategy provides a guideline on taking profits like this.Nevertheless, recent weeks still point towards price behavior that indicates strength like last week’s candlestick hammer formation.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, And the winner is:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 15th, 2020As always the bigger picture is what matters most. Looking back, Bitcoin has accomplished what most doubted. Its biggest opponents have joined the club and invested now themselves. This left us trading at 2017 highs and congesting there. Clearly representing strength. The monthly chart above shows that with the past “W” formation alone a presence of probabilities is set that makes even the worst scenario (a retracement to 14k) attractive (white dotted line). The highest likelihood is a breakout through all-time highs. This, in turn, allows for a continuation move to higher price levels (turquoise dotted line).Bitcoin - mastering the turning pointFrom the three most dominant aspects of trading (price, volume, and time), time seems to be the most overlooked in the trading approach. Traders are in principle too early in and out of trades. It is essential to at least add an edge like a volume analysis or otherwise high probability strategy if one trades form a price level perspective. Especially to not be caught by professionals who are aware of amateurs trading a support resistance approach only. At Midas Touch, we employ a complex stacking of odds to cut through a turning point in an effective way extracting low-risk entry points at the appropriate time. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 16 – Dec. 22, 2020

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 14:19
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Energy stocks and one Financials stock again. In the last five trading days (December 9 – December 15) the broad stock market has been trading within a short-term consolidation following its recent record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,712.39 a week ago on Wednesday. Then it retraced some of the advance before going back up on Monday-Tuesday this week.The S&P 500 index has lost 0.31% between December 9 open and December 15 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have gained 1.32%. Stock picks were relatively much stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have gained 0.91% and short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 1.73%. So short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): XOM (+0.77%), EOG (+0.62%), PGR (+4.73%), BK (+0.51%), MMM (-2.10%)Short Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): LNT (-0.81%), CNP (-1.64%), ABBV (-4.28%), DHR (-0.16%), APTV (-1.75%)Average long result: +0.91%, average short result: +1.73%Total profit (average): +1.32%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 16 – Tuesday, December 22 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 16) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 22).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Energy, 2 x Financials, 1 x Communication Servicessells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesXOM Exxon Mobil Corp. - EnergyStock broke above its short-term downward trend line, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $40 and resistance level is at $44-47 (short-term target profit level)COP ConocoPhillips – EnergyPossible short-term bull flag pattern, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $42 and resistance level is at $45-50WFC Wells Fargo & Co. – FinancialsPossible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $29.50 and resistance level is at $30.00Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Energy and Financials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stocks Surge on Stimulus Hopes

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 17:48
Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday (Dec. 15) as optimism grew that Congress could pass another economic stimulus package before year’s end.News RecapThe Dow Jones gained 337.76 points, or 1.1%, and closed at 30,199.31. The S&P 500 also gained 1.3% and snapped a four-day losing streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and reached a new record closing high of 12,595.06. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 2.40%.In the strongest indication yet that we may be coming closer to a stimulus agreement, the top four congressional leaders-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - all were set to meet after market close on Tuesday (Dec. 15).Democrats and Republicans still remain deeply divided on certain matters, but a two-part bipartisan stimulus plan proposed on Tuesday (Dec. 15) has a chance of passing.The stimulus package would provide around $908 billion in total aid. The first part would be a $748 billion stimulus package that includes an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits and another $300 billion for more PPP loans. This segment would also include money for vaccine distribution, education, and rental assistance. The second segment would be a $160 billion aid package and cover the more partisan issues of business liability protections and financial aid to state and local governments.The first round of shots from the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech were given in the U.S. on Monday (Dec. 14) with further distributions occurring Tuesday (Dec. 15).FDA staff announced that they endorsed emergency usage of Moderna’s vaccine. The FDA’s vaccine advisory panel will meet Thursday (Dec. 16) to decide whether to recommend clearance for emergency use. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer doses already in distribution.Apple led the Dow higher, jumping 5% after Nikkei reported that the company will increase iPhone production by about 30% in the first half of 2021.All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained on Tuesday (Dec. 15) and were led by energy and utilities.We are approaching the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic yet. 300,000 people across the country have now lost their lives to the disease. However, the worst may not be over yet. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.The short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment due to two major catalysts - the lack of stimulus and an out-of-control virus.According to Art Hogan , chief market strategist at National Securities:“There’s been a tug of war between the vaccine news and the virus news. The only tiebreaker that’s kept the averages on their way higher seems to be the potential for getting stimulus out of gridlock...It certainly feels like one of the proposals that’s on the table ... can go through.”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before a mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”On the other hand, the mid-term and long-term optimism is very real. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain, and focus on the longer-term gains.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, like Monday (Dec. 14), the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, like Tuesday (Dec. 15), there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. On other days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty.However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly a challenge to predict the future with certainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingEnergy (XLE)Energy is a sector largely dependent on sentiment, with several question marks.On one hand, if you are bullish, all of this vaccine news bodes well for a full economic reopening by the second half of 2021. That means travel, and therefore fuel demand, could surge back to pre-pandemic levels. WTI crude futures on Tuesday (Dec. 15) extended gains to trade around 1% higher at $47.5 a barrel due to cautious optimism on further US stimulus in addition to the vaccine(s).On the other hand, there are very real short-term concerns. There are fresh concerns over global fuel demand as countries, states, and cities across the world tighten coronavirus restrictions. Germany and the Netherlands will enter a new lockdown, while the UK government imposed tighter Covid-19 measures on London. In New York City, Mayor Bill De Blasio warned that the city is on the path towards a second full shutdown. Governor Andrew Cuomo already banned all indoor dining. The newly inaugurated Mayor of Baltimore, Brandon Scott, also banned all dining - both indoor and outdoor. OPEC also lowered its projections for global fuel consumption in Q1 2021 by 1 million barrels a day as well. The organization will meet on January 4th to evaluate if they can move on with supply increases. Much anticipated data from the EIA is also due on Wednesday.This is such an unpredictable sector experiencing great volatility. It is almost as if energy is either the S&P 500’s leader or its laggard. There is never anything in between. These are simply risky and major percentage swings on a day-to-day basis.It is a very difficult sector to make a bullish call on. There are still simply too many headwinds to be overly euphoric. While energy is still largely undervalued, and the RSI is no longer overbought, the volume is not stable. Most importantly, nobody truly knows what oil’s long-term prospects are, with the increased adoption of renewable energy and ESG investing.This year we have seen that when energy rallies, it eventually pulls back. Judging from the chart, that inevitable pullback could possibly come again. For the month of December, the ETF is up nearly 8%. But I would be more confident in either calling BUY or HOLD or a pullback - not during such a volatile time.While there is vaccine optimism now that there wasn’t before, conditions are largely the same on the ground with regard to COVID-19 and travel demand. Therefore, my call is to take profits and SELL. DivingCommunication Services (XLC)I really don’t like this sector and I will explain why. Although the Communication Services ETF touched a 52-week high recently, the gains have not been as stable or as robust compared to other sectors. But this is generally par the course for communications stocks. This is a sector that continuously underperforms other sectors both in the short-term and long-term.While traditionally this is a good sector to find value in, right now I just don’t see it. I see downside risk without the same type of upside potential as exists in other sectors that may benefit more from a successful vaccine roll-out and economic reopening.Furthermore, the ETF’s volume is already low, and has been in decline. This screams volatility to me.I just can’t see how you would benefit buying into this sector. It is hard to foresee how this sector will truly benefit from a vaccine and 2021 reopening relative to other sectors. Therefore, I give it a SELL call.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show – Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 16.12.2020 18:20
In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline.  We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline.  Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market.  This past research article - How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II - is an excellent review item for today's Part II conclusion to our current article. Custom Metals Index Channels & TrendsOur Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals.  If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” - where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so.  This half-cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse.Recently, the upside price trend on this Custom Metals index page suggests a price channel has setup and may continue.  The recent pullback in price has just recently touched the lower price channel and started to stall near these lows.  If precious metals prices resume any upward price trends after reaching these lows, the technical pattern will stay valid and we believe Gold will attempt to rally above $2350 to $2500 in this next leg higher.  Longer-term, we feel it us just a matter of time before precious metals begin another breakout rally.Longer-term Cycle Phases – Why They Are ImportantLastly, we want to leave you with the following longer-term market cycle chart showing the US Dollar, the SPX500 and GOLD.  We know this chart is a bit complicated and cluttered, but we'll try to highlight the key elements for you to understand.  First, look for the rallies and declines in the US Dollar Index in alignment with the “Appreciation” and “Depreciation” phases.  Remember, the left and right edges of this chart are in a “Depreciation” phase thus, the dramatic selloff in the US Dollar index on the left edge of this chart took place near the beginning of a Depreciation Phase.  The rally in the US Dollar Index from 1992 to 2000 took place in an Appreciation Phase.  Currently, we believe we have ended an Appreciation Phase and started a new Depreciation phase in the markets.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Now, take a look at the SPX500 line on this chart.  Notice how bigger rallies take place in Appreciation phases and sideways trending (with massive volatility) take place in Depreciation phases?  The last Appreciation Phase started in 2010~11 (or so) and ended in 2018~19 (or so).  If our research is correct, this new Depreciation phase will last until 2027~28 (or so) and may prompt a very big volatility cycle in the US Dollar and the US/Global stock markets.Now, pay attention to how Gold setup a major bottom in late 2015 (mid-cycle phase).  Could this be an indication that precious metals reacted to the peak in the US Dollar index rally phase early 2015 and subsequent peak in the US Dollar in December 2016 (remember, that date was just after a major US election)?  Could the early phase rally in precious metals be warning us that another 600%+  rally in precious metals (just like what happened from 2000 to 2011) take place from the 2015 Gold lows near $1080?  If so, does this mean the ultimate upside price target for Gold is some where above $6,800?If our research is correct, the longer term rotations in the global markets aligned with these major market phases will mean traders will have to learn to identify and trade the best performing assets at all times.  The shifts in how assets and sectors are valued will continue to roll in and out of favor as capital moves from one sector to another.  Precious metals and the US Dollar are just one component of the broader markets – there are hundreds of sector ETFs  and thousands of individual stock symbols to select from.  Skilled traders need to know when sectors perform the best and which asset classes/symbols are poised for the best returns – that is the only way to really try to beat the markets over the next 9+ years.Precious metals should continue to find support and attempt to rally higher if our longer-term research is accurate, but skilled technical traders know we can't simply rely on precious metals over the next 8+ years – we need more diversity and we need to protect our trading capital from losses.  The only way to do that is to learn how to spot the best performing assets and to stay ahead of emerging trends.  Get ready, the next few years are certainly going to be interesting and full of opportunities.We publish this free research to help you stay ahead of broad market trends and to illustrate how we apply our technical analysis skills in helping you find and trade the best performing assets. We are proud of the research we deliver to you fro FREE, but if you want to profit from our knowledge then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about our BAN trading and review an example of my daily pre-market reports. Please take a minute to visit our web site to see how we can help you survive and prosper from these big future trends.Happy Trading!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Nasdaq Hits Yet Another Record Close

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.12.2020 18:23
The major indices closed mixed on Wednesday (Dec. 16), as the Nasdaq hit yet another record close amidst stimulus optimism and the Fed’s dovish tone.News RecapAlthough the Dow Jones closed lower by 44.77 points, or 0.15%, the S&P 500 gained for the second day in a row and rose by 0.18%. The Nasdaq closed once again at a record high and gained 0.5%.Sentiment for the day started negatively after the Commerce Department reported a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales. The department stated that retail sales fell by 1.1% in November compared to estimates of 0.3%.Cautious optimism that some sort of stimulus could be passed before the end of the year encouraged investors.According to Politico , Congress was on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal that would include a new round of direct payments to consumers. However, that package would exclude the more contentious areas of liability shields for businesses and state and local aid.We have reached the deadliest weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 300,000 total COVID-19 related deaths have now been confirmed in the U.S., with over 16 million confirmed cases. Additionally, US officials reported 3,400 new COVID-19 deaths - a daily record.After an FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna (MRNA) - following a review which confirmed safety and efficacy earlier in the week – the big day is finally here. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the FDA will officially vote on Moderna's vaccine. This will strongly complement the mass deployment of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech’s (BNTX) vaccine.The Federal Reserve ’s announcement on monetary policy was largely as dovish as expected. The Fed vowed to continue its asset purchase program at the current rate, “until substantial further progress has been made toward the committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.”Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) led the Dow with gains of 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while Walgreens (WBA) was the laggard and declined 2.15%.Moderna (MRNA), despite its big week ahead, dropped 6.9%.While there is some short-term uncertainty and mixed sentiment, there is some general consensus: While the short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment, it may be worth it for the medium-term and long-term optimism.The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021- despite near-term risks. Outside of the pandemic raging to out of control levels, another near-term risk that has been largely overlooked is the Senate runoff election in Georgia. Investors have largely already priced in a divided government - however, if Republicans end up losing both seats in Georgia, this could potentially upend everything.According to Jimmy Lee, CEO of the Wealth Consulting Group ,“I think that we can get a little bit of consolidation before year-end just due to normal selling at the year-end for rebalancing or tax loss harvesting. Also, depending on where the pulse is for the Senate race in Georgia, investors might want to get ahead of that if they think that capital gains taxes may go up in the future...So that could cause some additional selling before year-end and we could get a little bit of a pullback. But I am very bullish on equities at this point. And I do think we may get a little bit more of a rotation into the economy-opening sectors.”Meanwhile, progress on the stimulus package appears to be more optimistic than many expected in the near-term.“The odds of a fiscal deal before year’s end have been improving,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Tuesday (Dec. 15). “While we had expected a smaller package to pass now with a larger package waiting until early 2021, it appears increasingly likely that most of this could pass this week.”While markets for the rest of 2020 (and perhaps early 2021), will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound, the general consensus appears to be looking past the short-term painful realities, and focusing more on the longer-term - a world where COVID-19 is expected to be a thing of the past and we are back to normal.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 16) (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. Therefore, it is truly hard to say with conviction what will happen with markets in the next 1-3 months. However, if a stimulus deal passes within the next week, it could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed to the general public, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty whether another crash or bear market will come.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Nasdaq Hits Another Record Close - Too Good to Be True?Is the Nasdaq’s performance since its sharp sell-off last Wednesday (Dec. 9) too good to be true? Truthfully, I don’t know. But it’s very possible - especially if shut down measurements become harsher and stricter and investors return to the “stay-at-home” trade that led markets from April through the end of October.Additionally, I still have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. Last week’s IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this and invoke traumatic memories of the dotcom bubble era. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of last Wednesday (Dec. 9) could inevitably come in the short-term. Frankly, it would make me feel far more confident about initiating tech positions as well for the long-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. Last Wednesday’s (Dec. 9th) Nasdaq pullback after it exceeded a 70 RSI reflects that.The Nasdaq has sharply rallied in the week since then. But its RSI is nearly 69. Monitor this . If the index goes on another bull-run and hits more record closes, it could surely exceed an RSI of 70 by the end of market close on Thursday (Dec. 17). I did not make a conviction call last week but I will now- if the RSI exceeds 70 this time, take profits- but don’t fully exit .One thing I do like is how stable the volume has been this week and since the sharp sell-off last week. Stable volume is a good thing, especially if one is concerned about volatility. Low volume, especially a declining trend, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.On pessimistic days, having NASDAQ exposure is crucial because of all the “stay-at-home” trade. However, positive vaccine-related news always induces the risk of downward pressure on tech names - both on and off the NASDAQ. What concerns me most are sharp sell-offs due to overheating and mania. Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets.It is very hard to say with conviction to sell your tech shares though. However, as I said before - if the RSI exceeds 70 again - consider selling some shares and taking profits. For now, however, the NASDAQ stays a HOLD .For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART I

METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.12.2020 20:34
The recent bottom in Metals/Miners has everyone excited to see what this next upside price leg is capable of achieving.  The extended Pennant/Flag formation that setup a peak in August 2020 has nearly reached the Apex.  The upside move in Gold and Silver, as well as Junior Miner ETFs, over the past few weeks suggests a new upside price trend is setting up.  The concept that commodities and metals are very new to historically low price levels sets up expectations that a longer-term price advance could send Gold above $3750 and send Silver above $50 as expectations adjust to the new price cycles.WHERE ARE WE IN THE COMMODITY/METALS CYCLE?Some of my team’s recent research has highlighted our belief that we are just starting a Depreciation cycle for the US/Global stock market which aligns with the historic lows for Commodities/Metals. Take a look at our analysis of the Gold and the US$ cycle, Gold and the SPY and QQQ, and our price targets for Gold using our proprietary ADL tool for some additional background.Using our proprietary price modeling and Adaptive Learning technology, we’ve identified a broad market cycle that lasts between 9 to 9.5 years (on average) and we believe a US stock market appreciation phase ended in 2018~2019.  We feel the current rally in the US stock market is an “excess phase” (blow off top) rally that may extend well into early 2021 before suddenly shaking out the hype.  This same type of enthusiasm is taking place across the globe and in various classes of assets (Cryptos, various market sectors, Metals and Essential Minerals, and others).  The US Fed, and global central banks, are fueling the rally with easy monetary policies – attempting to keep the party going.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next research report!We suggest traders watch how hedging instruments react to this excess phase over the next 12 to 24 months.  When precious metals, miners and Cryptos (which have now become a new hedging instrument) begin to rally when the US stock market is flat or devaluing – then we may be very close to the end of the excess phase.BLOOMBERG COMMODITIES INDEX BOTTOMThese long-term Bloomberg Commodities Index and Silver to M2Money Supply charts highlight the extended downtrend in commodities over the past 12 years.  Interestingly, this decline in the Commodities Index,hart below, aligns with our longer term Appreciation phase in the US stock market from 2009 to 2018~19. Source : www.Bloomberg.comThe deep lows of the COVID-19 market collapse may have setup a major bottom in the Commodities Index going forward.  If our research is correct, commodities should start a major upward price trend which lasts for 5 to 7 more years.  We have highlighted a mean price range (in RED) from the 2009 to 2013 area suggesting commodity prices could recover to this level fairly quickly in a new Appreciation phase.BLOOMBERG SILVER TO MONEY SUPPLY RATIOThe following Silver to Money Supply Ratio chart highlights how inexpensive Silver is in comparison to historical values.  Even though Silver is trading near $26 per ounce right now, historical mean levels in Appreciation phases suggest Silver could rally 200% to 300% (or more) from these lows.  We’ve highlighted an area in RED on this chart showing a moderate mean average of the last Appreciation phase (2004 through 2011).  www.Bloomberg.comIn the second part of this research article, we’ll go over the setups in various Gold and Silver miner charts that may represent an incredible opportunity for traders.  If you understand the scope and consequences of these broad market cycles, the Appreciation/Deprecation cycles, and what this means for commodities, metals, miners and other assets, then you will quickly understand we are in the midst of a shift in these cycles.  We must prepare for what is next so we can adapt our trading style to profit from these new big trends.Take a minute or two to read the other research articles I’ve linked to at the start of this article.  It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders.  Then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy where we identify the best ETFs and other assets in any market trend.  BAN allows us to quickly identify when and how to invest our capital in top performing asset classes. Trading the hottest sectoral ETFs helps us beat market returns without having to scan and pick from thousands of stocks.Happy Trading!
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 18.12.2020 14:16
In the first part of our research, we highlighted our broad market super-cycle trend analysis.  This analysis suggests the global markets are shifting away from a stock market appreciation phase into a depreciation phase.  This shift will likely prompt a new commodities sector appreciation phase to begin fairly quickly.If you remember how Gold started to move higher in 2003~04 after reaching low price levels in 2001?  My research team and I believe a 9 to 9.5 year appreciation/depreciation cycle takes place in stocks and commodities, and the relationship between the two is inverted.  For example, the bottom in Gold which took place in 2001 also aligned with the end of a US stock market appreciation cycle that started in 1992.  The rally in Gold after 2001 was directly inverted to the new depreciation cycle in the US stock market at that time.  Let's review these past long-term Appreciation/Depreciation cycles:Long-Term Appreciation/Depreciation Cycle PhasesCycle Year StartStock MarketUS DollarPrecious Metals1983DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation1992AppreciationAppreciationDepreciation2001DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation2010AppreciationAppreciationDepreciation2019DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation2027 (proposed)AppreciationAppreciationDepreciationIf our research is correct, the current Depreciation phase has just started and we are experiencing an “excess phase” (blow-off) top formation in the US and Global stock markets.  This longer-term cycle phase chart (below) helps to illustrate how these cycles work.  Even though some of you may be able to find areas on this chart where the US Stock market did not decline within a depreciation phase, watch how the US Dollar and Gold reacted throughout these phases as well.  It is critical to understand that each of these assets can, and often do, engage in counter-trend phases (at times) when shifts in phase dynamics are more evident.  For example, the peak in the US stock market in 2000 was an example of how the US stock market reacted to a pending phase shift before Gold and the US Dollar began to react efficiently to this phase shift.Notice how we've also drawn the current and next phase of the markets highlighting target ranges out to 2036 and beyond. We suggest taking a minute to read some of our earlier research posts related to these cycle phases so you can better understand how to prepare for the big trends.Junior Gold Miners Should Rally In Legs – Targeting $95 or higherOur research team believes the end of the current stock market excess phase will happen sometime in early-to-mid 2021.  The end of this phase will usher in a new phase of capital deployment where investors seek out undervalued assets and hedge risk in the global markets.  Just like what happened after the bottom of the global markets after the 2009-10 credit market crash, it took nearly 2+ years for the markets (including precious metals) to come to the realization that a new stock market appreciation phase had setup.  This took place from 2012 to 2013.  After that shift in thinking took place, investors moved capital into the US stock market and away from hedge assets which resulted in a very strong upward price trend reaching the peak levels we see today.Our researchers believe the appreciation phase ended in 2019 and we are currently experiencing the same type of “excess phase” (blow-off top) that took place in precious metals in 2012~2013.  The end phase rotation of assets chasing a potentially weakening trend in the global stock market.  When and IF this excess phase ends, commodities and precious metals should really begin to skyrocket higher. Junior miners, seen in this GDXJ chart below, should begin to move higher in advancing legs.  We've drawn these legs on the chart (below) as arrows – showing you how price may advance in the future.  Each advancing leg will “reset” after a brief pause/pullback, then another advancing leg will begin.  Remember, this is a longer-term appreciation phase in commodities and metals that should last through 2026~2027 (or longer).Junior Silver Miners Should Also Rally In LegsJunior Silver Miners, SILJ, should begin to advance to levels near $21, then stall for a few days/weeks, then attempt to advance to levels above $28~$30 if our research is correct.  This advance in the Junior Silver miners will not likely peak near $30 though. This rally in metals, miners, and other commodities may last well beyond 2026~27 based on our research.  This type of trend could really turn into a life-changing appreciation/depreciation phase for traders.It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders and investors alike.  We deliver these free research articles to highlight our skills and technology solutions which help you stay ahead of market trends.  Our long-term cycle analysis can help long-term investors stay ahead of the pack, and give traders an edge by identifyingthe Best Assets Now to hold and trade. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you protect and grow your investment and trading accounts.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Will Biden Trigger Inflation for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.12.2020 17:40
President-elect Joe Biden is expected to increase further government spending. For this and also other reasons, there is a risk that inflation under Biden’s presidency could be higher than under Trump’s. That would be great news for gold.Let’s face it, Biden won’t have an easy presidency. And I’m not referring to the fact that he will be sworn in as the oldest president in U.S. history or that he will have to deal with the coronavirus pandemic and the process of vaccine distribution across the country. I’m referring to Biden inheriting an economy with slow growth and too much public debt . Given the debt burden, it should be clear that under Biden’s presidency, real interest rates will remain at ultra-low levels. This is how a debt trap works – the more the debt grows, the less the economy (Treasury) can afford higher interest rates .Moreover, Biden will have to face the risk of inflation . Actually, some analysts say that the new POTUS could contribute to the rise of prices. Is it true? Will we finally see an acceleration in the inflation rate?So far, consumer inflation has been subdued. As the chart below shows, the CPI overall annual rate has declined from 2.3 percent before the epidemic to 1.2 percent in October.For some people, this is all really surprising given all the money pumped by the Fed into the economy. However, the disinflation is perfectly in line with our predictions from the May edition of the Gold Market Overview : “In the short run, we expect disinflation , but we think that the risk of inflation later in the future is higher than a decade ago.”Indeed, in the short-run, the negative demand shock outweighed other factors, and people simply increased their demand for money because of the enormous uncertainty and limited opportunities to spend money in the offline economy.But didn’t the Fed significantly increase the money supply ? It did, but the central banks create only a monetary base , while the majority (more than 90 percent) of the broad money supply is created by the commercial banks. So, for inflationary trends, what really matters is not the Fed’s balance sheet , but rather the commercial banks’ credit expansion, since whenever the banks grant loans, they also create deposits, i.e., money supply.Hey, wait a moment, but didn’t the pace of expansion of the banks’ credit and broad money supply also rise? They did! Just look at the chart below. And this is the reason why I believe that the risk of inflation in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis is higher than after the Great Recession , when banks were strongly hit and didn’t want to expand credit.Now the situation is different. However, banks expanded loans not to the consumers but to the entrepreneurs, probably because they needed credit to stay afloat during the Great Lockdown . So, the acceleration in the bank credit could be temporary – indeed, the pace of its expansion has been slowing down recently. But when the pandemic is over, consumers may again tap credit cards and real estate loans.Indeed, this is an important upward risk for inflation . Some economists point out here the pent-up demand, i.e., the strong increase in demand for a service or product, usually following a period of subdued spending. The idea is that consumers tend to hold off their demand during a recession, only to unleash it during recovery. It makes sense; during a crisis, the uncertainty rises, so people try to cut expenses and accumulate cash. When confidence returns to the marketplace, people spend money more freely.The same could happen during the current pandemic – not only did uncertainty rise, but people also had to practice social distancing and obey sanitary restrictions, which forced them to reduce their expenditures. Hence, when the pandemic is over, the demand for cash may fall, while spending could increase, thereby accelerating inflation . Of course, some demand will simply stay unrealized forever (it would be impossible to make up for all these missed opportunities to drink beers with friends), but when the storm is over and vaccines boost people’s confidence, they will spend a substantial part of their extra savings accumulated during the pandemic.Just take a look the chart below – as you can see, the U.S. personal savings rate has increased from about 8 percent before the epidemic to almost 34 percent in April. Now it is staying above 14 percent, so there is still potential to increase consumer spending in the future.In other words, people and businesses have not yet used all the stimulus they got from the Fed or the government. Because of this uncertainty, they spent as little as they could, and saved as much they could. Why this is so important? Because when people decide to spend their mountain of money, inflation could accelerate, boosting the demand for gold as an inflation hedge .Hence, when the pandemic storm is over, the demand for money should decrease, or the velocity of money should increase. Actually, this is what we have observed in the third quarter of this year – the velocity of M2 money supply has rebounded somewhat , as the chart below shows. So, although the second wave of COVID-19 infections would hamper this process, it’s possible that in 2021 we will see a rise in inflation. Higher inflation also means lower real interest rates, which is another piece of good news for the yellow metal.Last but not least, Biden is a supporter of major economic relief, including a second round of stimulus checks, so consumers’ spending power should increase further next year, thus contributing to higher consumer prices. So, although it’s not determined, there is a risk that inflation under Biden’s presidency could be higher than under Trump’s presidency. It would be great news for gold , especially that the Fed’s new regime means that it will not strongly react to rising inflation.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Stocks Surge to New Records on More Optimism

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.12.2020 17:41
Major averages hit both all-time intraday and closing highs on Thursday (Dec. 17), riding on vaccine optimism and hopes that a stimulus package could be passed in a matter of days.News RecapThe Dow Jones climbed 148.83 points, or 0.5%, to 30,303.37 for a record close. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday and closing records as well and gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30%.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday (Dec. 17) said that a stimulus deal was closing in. Congress appears to be nearing a $900 million stimulus package that would include direct payments to individuals. However, the package would exclude the partisan issues of liability protections for businesses and aid to state and local governments.Despite the optimistic tone of the day, jobless claims disappointed for a second consecutive week. Jobless claims totaled 885,000 last week, hitting their highest levels since early September. This was also significantly worse than the expected 808,000.An FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna's (MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine. It could officially be cleared for emergency usage as early as Friday (Dec. 18), and be distributed as soon as after the weekend. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Real estate, materials and health care were the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, each gaining over 1%. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 2.6% to lead the Dow higher.Tesla (TSLA) gained 5.32% and will now officially join the S&P 500.We are in the darkest days of the pandemic. On average, the U.S. is recording at least 215,729 additional COVID-19 cases a day . More than 114,200 Americans are also now hospitalized , and over 3,400 new deaths were recorded. According to the CDC Director, Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.While sentiment has been positive over the last two trading sessions, there will still be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. It’s quite simple really - until a stimulus is passed and the virus is somewhat brought under control, there will be negative pressure on the markets. Even though a stimulus package passing appears to be imminent, time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.For now, though, hopes that a deal could pass through are sending stocks higher.“Stimulus is still the main driver in the market right now until they get something done, and it does appear there is some motivation on that front to get something done,” said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial, further stating that “the market’s benefiting from that (enthusiasm).”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021 though, despite near-term risks. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. The mid-term and long-term optimism is very real.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty that a correction will happen or more record high rallies will occur.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible, but it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30% on Thursday (Dec. 17). I truly love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for a long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relatively normalcy in 2021.I do have some concerns of overheating in the short-term however, especially with the headwinds that still exist. The Russell keeps outperforming no matter what the market sentiment of the day or week is. For example, although the week ended December 11th was an overall down week, the Russell 2000 STILL managed to outperform the larger indices and eek out another weekly gain of 1.02%. While it is remarkable, I do not see how this is sustainable in the short-term.The performance of the Russell 2000 index since early November has been nothing short of staggering. Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap value cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy, and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has not cooled off in the slightest.Since the start of November, the Russell 2000 has skyrocketed and considerably outperformed the other major indices. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), in comparison to the ETFs tracking the Dow (DIA), S&P (SPY), and Nasdaq (QQQ), has risen 28.62%. This is at least 13% higher than all of the other major indices. Since the start of December, the Russell ETF has also outperformed the other ETFs between 4%-5%.However, when looking at the chart for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. These are stocks that will experience more short-term volatility. Stocks don’t always go up but the Russell’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The IWM ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels. I would SELL and trim profits for the short-term but do not fully exit these positions. A stimulus could be imminent and send these stocks soaring more. But if there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)The U.S. Dollar’s plunge continues to its lowest levels in years. I called the return to oversold levels this week despite the currency piercing the 91-level last Wednesday (Dec. 9). I knew it was “fool's gold” and not the sign of any sort of breakout. I have been calling the dollar’s weakness for weeks despite its low levels, and I expect the decline to continue.For the first time since April 2018, the world’s reserve currency is now trading below 90.Why did the dollar plunge so much on Thursday (Dec. 17)? You can thank the Fed! After the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone and reassurance on Wednesday (Dec. 16) that it won’t be soon tapering its bond purchases, bearish traders took this as a sign to continue selling the dollar.“The latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects,” said Joe Manimbo , senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.After hitting a nearly 3-year high in March, the dollar has plunged in excess of 13%.Meanwhile, other currencies continued strengthening on Thursday (Dec. 17), relative to the dollar:The euro rose 0.6% to $1.2270, hitting its highest level versus the dollar since April 2018. The euro is up more than 9% year to date.The dollar fell to a more-than-three-year low versus the Japanese yen and declined 0.4% to ¥103.07.The British pound was up 0.5% at $1.3575 - its highest since April 2018.Both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar each gained 0.6% versus the US dollar.The US dollar was off 0.1% vs. the Canadian dollar.After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is at an alarmingly low 22.96. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.Many believe that the dollar could fall further too.If the world returns to relative normalcy within the next year, investors may be more “risk-on” and less “risk-off,” meaning that the dollar’s value will decline further.Additionally, because of all of the economic stimulus and seemingly imminent additional stimulus, the dollar’s value has declined and could have more room to fall. With a dovish Fed and record low-interest rates projected to remain this low for at least another two years, the dollar may not appreciate again for a very long time.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount - at least for a quick short-term trade. The low RSI reflects this.But I just have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

The freedom through Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.12.2020 19:28
There are many benefits of owning physical Silver. We mentioned in prior chartbooks various benefits for Silver as a wealth preservation method. Another field of assurance is the protection of your privacy through untraceable transactions. What is mentioned less is the independence from the grid. We got used to the conveniences of the modern world, but imagine a scenario where you simply out of electricity. Just the loss of your smartphone can be a dilemma. A step further being that the dependency on a computer should not have that much power you not being able to purchase groceries or gasoline. The freedom through Silver.What we mean to say is that in case of hyperinflation where cash renders its value, Gold and Bitcoin might not be enough of a hedge.Silver, Daily Chart, Last weeks high probability assumption held true:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 11th, 2020We posted the above daily chart in last week’s Silver chartbook publication. In addition we guided this anticipated price move manifesting, through our “Silver daily calls” with real-time entries posted in our free Telegram channel. Silver, Daily Chart, A week later:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 17th, 2020The market kindly moved as planned. A gentle dip of price shortly after the publication of the chartbook into the extremely low-risk entry zone (support) allowed for core position establishment. Followed by partial profit-taking based on our quad exit strategy to eliminate risk. Allowing (in addition to reload positions) for remainder position size to possibly see higher price levels for further targets.A conservative method for position building and consistent profit-taking.Silver, Weekly Chart, Clean chart:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2020Stepping away from the noise of smaller time frames and exploring the larger picture, we can see that Silver is trading very clean and precise. As volatile as this instrument is trading on intraday charts it is due to its high liquidity one to be relied on through thorough technical analysis.A closer look at the weekly time frame reveals a steep move up starting in March this year. For a stunning 156 percentage gain. From the high price retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level to build there a eleven-week wide double bottom. This marked the bottom of a bull flag which two weeks later broke through its upper resistance line.Most importantly is the volume analysis of this entire move, which substantiates the newfound support. It is precisely in the middle of the sideways trading zone between US$26 and US$22, at US$24.14. Consequently, we find this to be the most likely bounce point for the next retracement. A low-risk entry point in case you are not positioned just yet. With this precision trading in the present and past, projections into the future become higher probable. “A=B” is as such our next major target point identified. We took the liberty to point out assumed resistance points along the way until we reach this target. Silver prices for possible partial profit-taking in assumed distribution zones.The larger time frame shows a high probability of this last turning point one to be counted on. This warrants for a physical silver acquisition that has a good chance to in time provide for the mentioned conveniences and freedom of being independent. Consequently, there is also a strong likelihood to add to your wealth preservation a degree of wealth growth.The freedom through Silver:What represents the most power of a commodity barter is its accessibility when you need it and the independence within limiting circumstances. With a possibility of rising princes per ounce for precious metals, Gold will be even in small denominations not ideal for smaller transactions. Consequently, Silver takes over a major role. In times where governments can control the internet and natural disasters or cyberattacks can wipe out electricity supplies for lengthy periods, holding physical Silver seems a no-brainer for diversified wealth preservation and day-to-day liberties. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Stocks Fall but Close Week Positive

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.12.2020 16:45
Quick UpdateDear readers, before we get into today’s news and stock analysis and because I’ve been receiving many questions from you, I’d like to first clarify what I mean by BUY, SELL, or HOLD. Here, I am largely referring to outperforming the S&P 500. When the conditions favor adding risk and buying the U.S. market overall, I will be issuing an "alert." I am not sure yet whether I will be moving to entry prices or target prices & stop losses, however, I have discussed this internally with the team at Sunshine Profits. In the current market environment, when fundamentals have essentially fallen to the wayside, I prefer to invest directionally rather than being married to certain levels in the market. In my view, trading with specific figures in mind can hurt long term returns if you do not let your winners run and cut your losers fast. I do update my calls daily, though, and any changes will be highlighted! Thank you again for being such great readers - I truly value your trust. Stay tuned for updates and let me know if you have any other questions!Let’s begin Monday by reviewing what happened at the close of last week.Volatile trading occurred on Friday (Dec. 18), with Congress struggling to close out a stimulus package, causing stocks to slip from record highs.News RecapThe Dow Jones fell 124.32 points, or 0.4%, to 30,179.05. At its session low, the index fell more than 270 points. The S&P 500 also dipped 0.4% and snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq fell only 0.1%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.41%.While Congress claims to be on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal , it is working against time. In public, leaders are speaking optimistically that a deal will pass, however, there are last-minute partisan disputes on direct payments, small business loans, and a boost to unemployment insuranceThere was an unusually large amount of trading volume on Friday (Dec. 18) as Tesla (TSLA) was set to officially join the S&P 500 after the closing bell. Tesla is being added to the index in one fell swoop, marking the largest rebalancing of the S&P 500 in history. After surging 700% in 2020, from day 1, Tesla will be the seventh-largest company in the S&P in terms of market cap.The FDA officially approved Moderna’s vaccine for emergency use. Government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Despite Friday’s (Dec. 18) losses, the indices closed out the week with mild gains. The Dow closed up 0.4%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, and the NASDAQ closed up 3.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 continued its strong run as well and gained 2.5% for the week.Meanwhile, the pandemic has reached its darkest days and is hitting unforeseen and unprecedented numbers . The U.S. shattered the previous record of daily deals on Wednesday (Dec. 16), recording over 3,600 deaths. As of Friday (Dec. 18), the country has also now surpassed 17 million confirmed cases, with death totals soaring past 300,000. California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Texas alone reported more than 1,000 deaths in the past week.While the general focus between both investors and analysts appears to be on the long-term potential in 2021, there are certainly short-term concerns. Inevitably, there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. For now, though, the main catalyst is the stimulus package. If a stimulus package is passed before Christmas, the markets could benefit. If it doesn’t, markets will drop. Time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.According to Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”However, despite near-term risks, the overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021, especially for the second half of the year. While there may be some short-term worries, the consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. Although the economic recovery could stutter in the early half of the year, the general focus is on the second half of the year when we could potentially return to normal. Many analysts expect double-digit gains to continue in 2021, with strategists in a CNBC survey expecting an average 9.5% rise in 2021 for the S&P 500.Additionally, according to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.Despite the optimistic potential, the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps. While it is truly hard to say with conviction that a short-term rally or bear market will come, I do believe that some consolidation and a correction could be possible in the short-term on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021.Outside of economic damages and an out-of-control virus, the market itself is flashing potential signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%. With an overabundance of cocky, euphoric, and optimistic investors, the market becomes more vulnerable to selling pressure. Corrections are very common though. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because there has not been one since the lows of March, we could be due for one in the early part of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction in early 2021 is very possible, but I do not believe, with certainty, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Has the Nasdaq Officially Overheated?Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets. I have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. The recent IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of Wednesday, December 9th’s session could inevitably come in the short-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. The December 9th Nasdaq pullback, after it exceeded a 70 RSI, reflects that.The RSI is now above 70. Monitor this . With unstable volume to start the week on the horizon, as Tesla officially joins the S&P 500, I am calling for some short-term volatility. I did not make a conviction call last week but I am not making that mistake again. Because the RSI is officially above 70, and because I foresee unstable volume thanks to Tesla, take profits and SELL some shares, but do not fully exit .While tech has overheated, there is still some very real long-term optimism based on stimulus hopes and 2021’s potential.Furthermore, on pessimistic days, having Nasdaq exposure is crucial because of the “stay-at-home” trade.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Bitcoin Rally Similarities – Is This The Peak?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.12.2020 02:12
The recent rally in Bitcoin is strangely similar to the rally that took place in 2017.  Although the range of price throughout the rally is somewhat different, the structure of price throughout the rally phase is very similar.  Our researchers believe this similarity suggests a peak may be forming in Bitcoin and the big volume on Monday, December 21, 2020, may have represented a “blow-off peak” in price.BITCOIN 2017 PEAK STRUCTUREThe following Weekly Bitcoin chart highlights the three rally phases that took place before the peak level was reached in December 2017. Pay very close attention to the structure you are seeing on this chart and the highlights we've made to help you understand how the price structure is being mirrored in the current rally phase.Initially, we saw a $2100 rally in Bitcoin which setup a peak near $2980 that initiated near March 26, 2017 (the first Green Arrow on this chart).  After, a mild correction took place which setup a deep trough on the RSI indicator (in the lower pane of this chart).  Notice how this deeper low level in RSI set up a momentum base for future trends.  Then, a second rally phase pushed Bitcoin prices higher to $4979 – spanning a rally phase of nearly $3050 (the second Green Arrow). This second rally initiated near July 2017 and was followed by another brief consolidation period.  Lastly, a breakout rally initiated in October 2017 and reached the peak price level on December 17, 2017 near $19,666.Next, pay attention to how the end of the rally phase broke below the support channel on the RSI (in RED) and began a excess phase contraction of over $16,000 (-84%) that lasted until December 2018 (near $3135). Are we witnessing a mirror example of this same type of price action in the current Bitcoin rally?BITCOIN 2020 PEAK STRUCTUREThis next current Bitcoin Weekly chart, below, highlights the similarities between the 2017 rally and the current rally phase.  Although there are minor price range variances related to the size and scope of the different price wave structures, the technical setup is almost identical to the 2017 rally phase.First, the bottom after the COVID-19 decline setup on March 13, 2020 – only about 14 trading days away from the March 26, 2017 bottom.  Next, the initial rally in 2017 consisted of a $2082 (+233%) rally phase whereas the current rally from the March 13 lows consisted of a $6750 rally (+186%) in price.  We believe the similarities in the rally percent ranges align close enough to consider both initial rally phases similar.Next, a moderate price decline setup after that first rally phase which setup a deep RSI low level in July 2020. Remember, in 2017, this first contraction phase ended in July 2017 also – just an odd similarity, or is this something more critical to understand?Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!After this contraction phase ended, in July 2020, another rally phase initiated pushing Bitcoin prices higher by about $3225 (+35.75%) which ended in August 2020.  In 2017, this second rally phase consisted of a $3061 price rally (+166%) which ended on September 15, 2017.  In this instance, we are focused on the similarities in the price ranges of these second rallies and the dates of these rallies.  The actual price ranges of these second phase rallies are very similar and the start and end dates of these rallies are strangely similar – even though the end dates are more than 30 days apart.Lastly, the final rally phase in 2017 initiated near the end of September 2017 and really broke-out in October 12, 2017 – then peaked about 60 days later near December 17, 2017.  The current rally phase in 2020 initiated near a low price level on September 8, 2020 and generated a break-out rally on October 20, 2020 – only 8 trading days difference between the 2020 breakout bar and the 2017 breakout bar.The final phase rally in 2020 has, so far, consisted of a $14,435 price rally (+146%) whereas the 2017 final phase rally consisted of a $16,704 price rally (+553%) and the current 2020 final rally phase has moved $14,435 (+146%).  Even though one could argue the price ranges and percent ranges are far enough away from one another to qualify as a “mirror” of the two examples, we feel the similarities are very difficult to dismiss – even if this final phase rally size/scope is 14% smaller than the one in 2017.Notice how the RSI technical pattern has continued to set up almost exactly like the 2017 rally phase setup – an initial low price level set in July acts as critical support while the subsequent rallies setup an upward sloping support channel – which will eventually be broken. Does this mean that Bitcoin has reached its peak levels – just like in 2017?  Are the similarities between the December 17, 2017 price peak and the December 20, 2020 price peak simply an odd curiosity or aligning dates, price phases, and similar structures or is it something more ominous?Time will tell if our research plays out as we suspect.  We are simply pointing out that similarities between the 2017 rally and the current rally are strangely aligning to suggest the current peak price level in Bitcoin may be ending soon.  It is a very rare situation where price triggers and trends align so closely to a previous trend that spanned nearly 9 months – but we do understand that these types of price patterns do exist.  Some people have built complete trading systems around historical patterns that repeat with a high degree of accuracy over the past 15 to 20+ years.  So it is not uncommon for these types of patterns to exist.  We find it incredibly interesting to see this type of extended price pattern aligning so closely to the 2017 setup in Bitcoin.If a future selloff does happen – it will be an incredible example of a “mirror-like” setup taking place on very similar dates nearly 3 years apart.  Keep this article in your focus as we move closer to the start of 2021.  Remember, the big breakdown in Bitcoin in 2017  first took place on December 22, 2017, then broke down further on January 16,2017.  Those might be very important dates in the future.Our proprietary BAN (Best Asset Now) strategy allows us to know which assets are potentially the best performers in any type of market trend.  If you want to learn more about how we can help you with our proprietary tools and strategy then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more. Sign up today to get my daily pre-market analysis of the markets that walks you through the technical indicators of the major asset classes. Less than two trading sessions before the holidays - stay healthy!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 23 – Dec. 29, 2020

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.12.2020 12:29
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Technology stocks and one Energy stock this time.In the last five trading days (December 16 – December 22) the broad stock market has extended its short-term consolidation following record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 3,726.70 on Friday, before retracing most of last week’s advances.The S&P 500 has lost 0.24% between December 16 open and December 22 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.04%. Stock picks were relatively slightly stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have lost 3.94%, however short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 3.86%. Short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside, but the whole portfolio followed broad stock market very closely.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 16 open – December 22 close % change): XOM (-5.74%), COP (-8.91%), WFC (-2.29%), BK (+0.02%), FB (-2.79%)Short Picks (December 16 open – December 22 close % change): DUK (-3.10%), EVRG (-4.03%), SPG (-5.23%), CBRE (-5.37%), KO (-1.57%)Average long result: -3.94%, average short result: +3.86%Total profit (average): -0.24%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 23 – Tuesday, December 29 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 23) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 29).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Technology, 2 x Energy, 1 x Financialssells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesCRM Salesforce.com, Inc. - TechnologyStock remains above its short-term upward trend lineUptrend continuation playThe support level is at $220 and resistance level is at $240-250 (short-term target profit level)NVDA NVIDIA Corp. – TechnologyStock trades above medium-term upward trend linePossible breakout above short-term consolidationThe support level is at $490-500 and resistance level is at $550PSX Phillips 66 – EnergyPossible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $60 and resistance level is at $70Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Technology and Energy sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Stimulus Hopes Fail to Rally Markets

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.12.2020 15:59
The S&P 500 closed down for the third consecutive day (Dec. 22), despite Congress’s long-overdue approval of an economic stimulus package.News RecapThe Dow Jones declined 200.94 points, or 0.7%, to 30,015.51. The S&P 500 closed down for a third consecutive day and fell 0.2%. Reflecting a return to the “stay-at-home” tech trade, the Nasdaq gained 0.5% on the day (Dec. 22). The small-cap Russell 2000 index managed to outperform yet again, rising 1.01%.Congress finally voted on and approved a $900 billion stimulus package to aid struggling Americans. Attached to this bill was also a $1.4 trillion measure to fund the government through Sept. 30. President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law within the next few days.A mutant strain of COVID-19 discovered in the UK weighed on markets for a second consecutive day. While the vaccine(s) could still be effective on this strain, the strain appears to be more contagious than others. The discovery of this virus strain has caused stricter lockdown measures and travel restrictions worldwide.Travel stocks were the laggards of the day due to fears of the new strain of COVID-19. American Airlines (AAL) fell 3.9% and United (UAL) dropped 2.5%. Cruise lines all fell as well. Carnival (CCL) fell nearly 6%, Royal Caribbean (RCL) dropped nearly 3%, and Norwegian (NCL) plummeted 6.9%Apple (AAPL) led the Nasdaq higher as it jumped 2.9% due to investor excitement about their EV plans to challenge Tesla (TSLA) by 2024Mixed economic data came in on Tuesday (Dec. 22). The final reading on Q3’s GDP growth found that the US GDP grew 33.4% on an annualized basis, compared to the estimated 33.1%. On the other hand, US consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row and missed expectations - despite vaccine optimism.COVID-19 has now killed over 318,000 Americans (and counting). The CDC announced that this is now the deadliest year in American history as total deaths are expected to top 3 million for the first time. Deaths are also expected to jump 15% from the previous year. This would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when WWI and fatalities from the Spanish Flu Pandemic caused deaths to rise an estimated 46%.Markets have officially stumbled before Christmas and experienced a predictable tug-of-war between good news and bad news. While the general focus of both investors and analysts has appeared to be the long-term potential of 2021, there are some very concerning short-term headwinds.Although there was some anticipation that a stimulus deal could send stocks higher in the near-term, investors may be simply taking profits before the year’s end and rebalancing for 2021. On the other hand, it is very possible that the stimulus package was “too little too late,” and is being overshadowed by a more contagious strain of COVID-19 discovered over the past weekend in the U.K.While nobody predicted a renegade mutant virus weighing on market sentiment, short-term battles between optimism and pessimism were quite predictable.According to a note released on Monday (Dec. 21) from Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli“The market has been in a tug-of-war between the very grim near-term COVID backdrop and the increasingly hopeful medium/long-term outlook (driven by vaccines) – the latter set of forces are more powerful in aggregate, but on occasion, the market decides to focus on the former, and stocks suffer as a result.”Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of market strategists, including myself, are bullish on equities for 2021. It might just be a bit of a bumpy road getting there. I believe that a correction and some consolidation could be very likely in the short-term, on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021. While it is hard to say with conviction WHEN we could see a correction, I believe that the market’s behavior as of late could be a potential preview of what’s to come between now and the end of Q1 2020. There is optimistic potential, but I believe a potential 5% pullback before the year’s end is possible, as well as a minimum 10% correction before the end of Q1 2020.According to Jonathan Golub , Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, choppiness in the economy and markets in the coming months could be expected before a surge in consumer spending by mid-2021. Golub said, “I don’t think that there’s a smooth, easy straight-line story on this...I think for the next three or four months, the reopening process is going to be sloppy.”I believe that the S&P’s three-day losing streak could be an ominous sign of what’s to come in the near-term. I do believe though that this is healthy and could be a good thing.Before Monday’s (Dec. 21) session, I had warned that the market was flashing signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%.A correction could be just what this market needs. Corrections also happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one because there has not been a correction since the lows of March. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.The mid-term and long-term optimism are very real, despite the near-term risks. The passage of the stimulus package only solidifies the robust vaccine-induced tailwinds entering 2021, specifically for small-cap value stocks.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, such as Tuesday (Dec. 22), the “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and COVID-19 recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, a broad sell-off based on virus fears may occur as well. Additionally, there will also be days where there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. And finally, there will be days (and in my opinion, this will be most trading days), that will see markets trading largely mixed, sideways, and reflecting uncertainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)The Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the larger-cap indices and gained 1.01% on Tuesday (Dec. 22). Despite the profit-taking and negative sentiment during Tuesday’s (Dec. 22) session, small-caps didn’t get the memo.I do love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relative normalcy by mid-2021.I do have some concerns about overheating in the short-term though. As I mentioned before, I believe that the S&P’s losing streak is only a preview of what could come in the next 1-3 months.According to the chart above for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. Stocks won’t always go up, but the IWM’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels as the volume shows instability.Since November, the Russell index has been on a run nothing short of astounding. Just look how the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) compares to the ETFs tracking the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq in that time frame. Since November, the IWM has risen nearly 28% and has at least doubled the returns of the ETFs tracking the other major indices.Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has seemingly not cooled off as much as other indices and sectors.But I believe this will eventually happen in the short-term, and I hope it does for a long-term buying opportunity.In the short-term, small-cap stocks may have overheated and could experience the greatest volatility. SELL and take short-term profits if you can, but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)If the dollar rallies at all again soon, do not be fooled.Ever since I called the dollar’s rally past the 91 level two Wednesdays ago (Dec. 9) a mirage, the dollar has declined by 1.25%.I believed it to be “fool's gold” then and I believe any subsequent rally that could come will be “fool’s gold” too.I still am calling out the dollar’s weakness after several weeks, despite its low levels. I expect the decline to continue as well thanks to a dovish Fed.The world’s reserve currency is still trading below 90 and has not traded this low since April 2018. Joe Manimbo , a senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, seemingly agrees with me as well and said that “the latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects.”Since hitting a nearly 3-year high on March 20th, the dollar has plunged nearly 13% while emerging markets and other currencies continue to strengthen.On days when COVID-19 fears outweigh any other positive sentiments, dollar exposure might be good to have since it is a safe haven. But in my view, you can do a whole lot better than the US dollar for safety.I have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years. Meanwhile, the US has $27 trillion of debt, and it’s not going down anytime soon.Additionally, according to The Sevens Report , if the dollar falls below 89.13, this could potentially raise the prospect of a further 10.5% decline to the next support level of 79.78 reached in April 2014After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is now at an alarmingly low 27.87. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount as the RSI is oversold. But I just feel you can do a whole lot better than the USD right now.I’m not a crypto guy either myself, but Bitcoin’s run compared to the dollar’s disastrous 2020 has to really make you think sometimes….For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
As USDX is Poised to Pop, What Happens to Gold?

As USDX is Poised to Pop, What Happens to Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.12.2020 16:50
After awakening from its slumber last week, the USD Index may be in the early innings of a short-term breakout. Bursting with energy, the dollar basket closed (on Dec. 22) above its declining resistance line (although more data is needed to confirm a larger move).And to quote Francis Bacon, because “we rise to great heights by a winding staircase of small steps,” Tuesday’s ‘small step’ may be the beginning of an epic comeback.Please see below:In this week’s early trading, the USDX moved lower and then rallied back up, after touching its previous resistance line, which now appears to have turned into support. Despite the initial decline, the USDX is now more or less where it had started this week’s trading. Its ability to reverse the initial decline appears bullish.While the USDX traded lower-to-flat from Dec. 23 – 25, the price action still follows a familiar playbook: In 2018, the USDX dipped below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level before circling back with a vengeance (The initial bottom occurred in early 2018, with the final bottom not far behind.) Moreover, the 2018 USDX bottom also marked the 2018 top in gold, silver and the gold miners (depicted in charts 2 and 3 below).I previously wrote that the USDX was repeating its 2017 – 2018 decline to some extent. The starting points of the declines (horizontal red line) as well as the final high of the biggest correction are quite similar. The difference is that the recent correction was smaller than it was in 2017.Since back in 2018, the USDX’s bottom was at about 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the size of the correction, we could expect something similar to happen this time. Applying the above to the current situation would give us the proximity of the 90-level as the downside target.“So, shouldn’t gold soar in this case?” – would be a valid question to ask.Well, if the early 2018 pattern was being repeated, then let’s check what happened to precious metals and gold stocks at that time.In short, they moved just a little higher after the USDX’s breakdown. I marked the moment when the U.S. currency broke below its previous (2017) bottom with a vertical line, so that you can easily see what gold, silver, and GDX (proxy for mining stocks) were doing at that time. They were just before a major top. The bearish action that followed in the short term was particularly visible in the case of the miners.Consequently, even if the USD Index is to decline further from here, then the implications are not particularly bullish for the precious metals market.And as we approach the New Year and beyond, I expect a similar pattern to emerge.Why so?First, the USDX is after a long-term, more-than-confirmed breakout. This means that the long-term trend for the U.S. currency is up.Second, the amount of capital that was shorting the USDX was excessive even before the most recent decline. This means that the USD Index is not likely to keep declining for much longer.In addition, after last week’s drawdown in gold and the gold miners, the sun appears to be setting on the yellow metal. As ‘buy the dip’ morphs into ‘sell the rally,’ gold’s downtrend is likely to resume. Furthermore, the 2018 analogue signals that the SPX’s (S&P 500 Index) days are also numbered (If you analyze the chart above, you can see that the USDX bottom coincided with the SPX top.)Fundamentally, the USDX is also poised to pop.On Tuesday (Dec. 22), I highlighted the misguided narrative plaguing the U.S. dollar. In short:With liquidity spigots on full blast around the world, the U.S. isn’t the only region expanding its money supply (And remember, currencies trade on a relative basis.) In fact, the European Central Bank (ECB ) has more assets on its balance sheet than the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED).And after another update, the ECB’s spending spree has now reached a record €7 trillion (As a point of reference, the Dec. 22 ECB chart was relative to the FED, so both balance sheets were presented in U.S. dollars. The chart below depicts the ECB’s balance sheet in euros).Week-over-week, the ECB’s balance sheet increased by €59 billion. But the real story? The ECB’s total assets now equal 69% of Eurozone GDP – nearly double the FED’s 35%. So while EUR/USD clawed back some of its early-week losses (after the EU and the U.K. reached a Brexit agreement), its prior three-day downtrend (Dec. 18 – 22) is likely to continue (Remember, movement in the euro accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USDX.)Consequently, the implications for the precious metals market are not as bearish as everyone and their brother seems to tell you. Conversely, the forex market could provide the PMs and mining stocks with a substantial bearish push in the coming weeks – or even days.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Bitcoin Rallies Above $28,300 – Is This The Peak?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 29.12.2020 02:58
We hope you enjoyed the brief holiday break... it seems Bitcoin has been busy while the markets have been resting! Bitcoin enthusiasts are adamant that the price rally has just started a parabolic move higher.  From a technical standpoint, this current rally certainly appears to have gone parabolic.  As any trader already understands, what goes up may eventually come crashing downward.My research team and I believe failure at the current highs would represent a clear technical divergence pattern between price and the RSI indicator. Additionally, the current rally that started on December 20 consists of a $10,850 rally phase.  The previous rally that took place from October 20 to December 2 consisted of a $9,200 rally phase.  We believe this current rally phase from December 11 could be a Wave 5 rally (almost equal to the Wave 3 rally range).  If our researchers are correct, this final rally phase could come crashing downward after reaching these peak levels above $28,000.This 4 Hour Bitcoin chart highlights the incredible price rally that has taken place over the past 16+ days – a rally of over $10,000.  It also highlights two very clear price rally phases – creating an A-B-C price wave pattern.This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights the two, almost identical in size, that we believe has created a price peak above $28,000.  It also highlights the technical divergence between price and the RSI indicator in the lower pane.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!We believe this current peak may become a near term top in Bitcoin – possibly resulting in a downward price decline.  Critical support near $18~$20k is still very valid.  If Bitcoin prices collapse from these peaks, we believe the $18k to $20k level will become the next level for price to find support.Overall, this incredible rally in Bitcoin prices before the end of 2020 has certainly proved the Bitcoin skeptics wrong and set the enthusiasts on fire.  At this point, we get to see what happens in early 2021 and if this $28k level will hold up.  One thing is certain, the past 30+ days have shown a massive rally potential in Bitcoin and other Cryptos – is this an excess phase peak or the start of a massive uptrend in 2021?Our proprietary BAN (Best Asset Now) strategy allows us to know which assets are potentially the best performers in any type of market trend.  If you want to learn more about how we can help you with our proprietary tools and strategy then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more. Sign up today to get my daily pre-market analysis of the markets that walks you through the technical indicators of Bitcoin and the major asset classes.Stay healthy!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Dollar rises as Trump signs Stimulus bill

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.12.2020 08:56
EURUSD Heading LowerThe euro currency attempted to rise higher but gave back the intraday gains. The rebound off the 1.2177 level of support was met with resistance from the trendline.With prices heading lower, the previous support level near 1.2177 comes under pressure.The Stochastics oscillator is also signaling a hidden bearish divergence. This could mean that price action will drift lower if the support breaks.Below 1.2177, the next key area of support will be the 1.2050 level.Given that this support area was not firmly tested before, we expect to see a possible test of this level.GBPUSD Gives Back Gains As Brexit Euphoria FadesThe British pound sterling is down over 0.6% on Monday. The declines come following last week’s rebound above the 1.3506 level of support.But as the trade deal euphoria fades, prices are drifting lower. As a result, the cable is likely to continue pushing lower.The next key level of support comes in at 1.3210. There is a possibility that the GBPUSD could establish minor support ahead of the decline to 1.3210.To the upside, a rebound could see the 1.3506 level being tested once again.If resistance forms here, then we expect to see a possible confirmation of prices heading lower.WTI Crude Oil Could Likely Form A TopOil prices maintained their bullish continuation with prices rising in early Monday trading. However, after rising to intraday highs of 48.94, the commodity gave back the gains, forming a lower high.If prices break down below the pivot lows of 47.76, then this will confirm that a top is in place. The next support level of interest comes near the 47.17 level.Below this minor support, oil prices could be on track to post further declines.The support area near 45.26 will come into the picture.The Stochastics oscillator is overbought at the moment, validating the short term move lower.Gold Prices Trade Flat Near Previous Swing HighsThe precious metal is on track to close flat on the day for Monday. This comes as prices attempted to rise intraday.However, as the momentum fizzled out, gold prices form a lower high. This could potentially trigger a short term decline.For the moment, the initial support level near 1859.50 comes into the picture. As long as this swing low from December 22 holds, there is scope for a rebound.But a failure at this level will open the way for further declines. The 1850 level of support comes into the picture.Despite the short term declines, gold prices are likely to remain supported at or near the 1850 level for the moment.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Major Averages Hit More Record Highs

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.12.2020 19:27
Quick UpdateAs a quick update to kick off today’s newsletter, I would like to summarize my correct calls and what I profited on since beginning to publish these updates. While nobody can predict the future, the major calls I am most proud of since producing these letters are 1) adding emerging market exposure and 2) hedging or selling the U.S. Dollar.Emerging markets have been some of the best performers in 2020, and I have made some bullish calls on specific regional markets for 2021 as well. I have been touting emerging markets since my first report, but when I switched my focus to specific regions, my calls became even more correct. On December 3rd, I called Taiwan ( EWT ETF) the best bet for emerging market exposure while avoiding the risks and baked in profits of China. Since then, the EWT ETF which tracks Taiwan has gained over 4.3% while the MCHI ETF which tracks China has fallen over 3.3%. The Taiwan ETF has also outperformed the SPY S&P 500 ETF and the IEUR ETF which tracks Europe.My calls on the U.S. dollar were also correct. Since I started doing these newsletters about a month and a half ago, I consistently reiterated that the dollar should be hedged or avoided because of the Fed’s policies, effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation. I also said that any minor rally the dollar would experience would be fool’s good. In the last month and a half, the dollar has fallen around 2.3%, and since it briefly pierced the 91-level on December 9th , it has fallen another 1%.Markets kicked off the final week of 2020 with a surge towards record highs after President Trump finally signed off on the stimulus bill.News RecapAll major indices closed at record highs. The Dow Jones rose 204.10 points higher, or 0.7%, to close at 30,403.97. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 3,735.36, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7% to 12,899.42. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed and declined 0.38%.After President Trump called the $900 billion stimulus package an unsuitable “disgrace,” and alluded to possibly vetoing the bill, over the weekend the president signed the bill into law . By signing off, a government shutdown was averted while unemployment benefits were extended to millions of Americans.After President Trump demanded stimulus checks for Americans to be raised from $600 to $2,000 each , the Democrat-led House voted for this measure on Monday (Dec. 28). The ball is now in the GOP-led Senate’s court on the measure. They are not expected to approve the measure.Apple led the Dow higher, and gained 3.6%. Disney also climbed nearly 3%.Communication services, consumer discretionary and tech were the best performing sectors in the S&P 500, with each rising over 1%.Amidst fears of a COVID-19 “surge on top of a surge” after the Christmas holiday, over one million people in the U.S. have now been vaccinated. Meanwhile, the U.S. has averaged at least 184,000 new infections per day.Markets cheered President Trump’s signing of the stimulus package and are further encouraged by the possibility of larger stimulus checks. After the market traded flat last week, it kicked off the final week of 2020 with a bang. Although it is still very possible that consolidation, profit taking, and rebalancing could happen in this shortened week, the general focus of both investors and analysts has appeared to be the long-term potential of 2021.As Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report said :“The five pillars of the rally (Federal stimulus, FOMC stimulus, vaccine rollout, divided government and no double dip recession) remain largely in place, and until that changes, the medium and longer-term outlook for stocks will be positive.”While I still do believe that there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news, I am now convinced that these moves are manic and based on sentiment. There has not been a pullback to end the year as I anticipated. But I still do believe that markets have overheated, and that between now and the end of Q1 2020 a correction could happen.There is optimistic potential, but the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps.I do believe though that a correction is healthy and could be a good thing. Corrections happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one since there has not been one since the lows of March. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.The mid-term and long-term optimism are very real, despite the near-term risks. The passage of the stimulus package only solidifies the robust vaccine-induced tailwinds entering 2021.The general consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks, despite short-term headwinds. According to a new CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000 - a roughly 16% gain from Thursday’s close of 30,199.87. Five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000 by the end of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Will the Dow Approach 31,000 or 29,000 Before Mid-2021?Figure 1 - Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)After trading as low as around 29,650 at one point last Monday (Dec. 21), the Dow has been firmly back above 30,000 for the last week. The blue-chip index also closed at yet another record high on Monday (Dec. 28).I do think that the Dow has some more room to run in the next few days to close off the year. Trump’s signing of the stimulus bill was a belated Christmas gift for investors everywhere. If the Senate approves $2,000 stimulus checks, then another short-term pop can certainly happen.My short-term questions though still remain as to whether or not the Dow can not only stay above 30,000 for more than a week at a time but also hit more all-time highs before March. The volume has also been very unstable as of late, but that is likely due to shortened trading weeks to close off the year.In the short-term, I believe it is just as likely for the Dow to approach 29,000 as it is to approach 31,000 in the early months of 2021.While I think a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, I do believe that the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.This is a very challenging time to make calls with conviction. But one thing I do believe is that if and when there is a drop in the index, it will not be strong and sharp relative to the gains since March, let alone November. I believe that more likely than not we will be in a sideways holding pattern until vaccines are available to the general public by mid-2021.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold Seeks Direction as USDX Slips

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.12.2020 17:36
As of Wednesday (Dec. 30) morning, gold is range trading and remains more or less flat as it seeks momentum. As we wait for the precious metals to act on a catalyst, let’s also take a look at the Euro’s relation to the U.S. Dollar and how both impact gold.Over the last 24 hours, the precious metals market did more or less nothing, despite the new daily decline in the USD Index. The latter is now testing its monthly and yearly lows, while the PMs are not. PMs – as a group – are not reacting to what should make them rally, and this is yet another bearish sign for the precious metals market.Figure 1 - USD Index (Sept – Dec 2020)The USDX is at its monthly and yearly lows and at the same time…Figure 2 - COMEX Gold Futures (Jan – Dec 2020)Gold is about $30 below its monthly high, and about $200 below the yearly low.After a temporary breakout, gold is back below its 2011 high. The breakout above the latter was clearly invalidated.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver Futures (Jan – Dec 2020)Silver is not even close to its 2011 high, and while it’s relatively strong compared to gold and miners on a short-term basis, it’s not at its December high right now. It’s also a few dollars below its yearly high.Figure 4 - GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Feb – Dec 2020)Miners remained relatively quiet on Tuesday (Dec. 29).We see that the GDX ETF moved lower once again despite the intraday attempt to rally. During Monday’s (Dec. 28) session, miners once again moved back to their 50-day moving average and… Once again verified it as resistance. The implications are bearish.Let’s get back to silver once again. On its chart, you can see a triangle-vertex-based reversal at the end of the year. Before the price moves close to the reversal, it’s relatively unclear what kind of implications a given reversal is likely to have. Well, including today’s (Dec. 30) session, there remain only two sessions until the end of the year, so we’re likely to see the reversal shortly.Based on the likelihood that the next big move is going to be to the downside, it would fit the overall picture more if the upcoming reversal was a top, not a bottom. A bottom would imply a rally in the following days or weeks, and the relative performance (as described above) along with other factors continues to favor a bigger decline.This means that we might not see a meaningful decline for a few more days, and we might even see one final move higher before the top is formed. This could be something that takes place in silver only, or something that we see in gold and miners as well. Still, I don’t expect it to be really significant in case of the latter. They are underperforming the metals, after all.Before summarizing, let’s discuss the USD Index’s main part – the EUR/USD currency pair in greater detail. After all, this pair often moves in tandem with gold.EUR/USD Decouples from FundamentalsJohn Maynard Keynes once said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”And right now, EUR/USD is putting his theory to the test.Because the euro accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USD Index, its rise (and likely fall) will determine if/when the war is won.But brimming with confidence and unwilling to wave the white flag, the EUR/USD has been green for five straight days and has rallied during nine of the last 12 trading days. And while sentiment and momentum are warriors that don’t die easy, the euro is losing fundamental soldiers left and right.Please see the chart below:Figure 5 - European Central Bank (ECB) Balance SheetAnother weekly update shows the European Central Bank’s (ECB) money printer continues to work overtime. And as I mentioned on Monday (Dec. 28), the ECB’s total assets now equal 69% of Eurozone GDP – nearly double the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) 35%.And why is this necessary?Because the Eurozone economy is in free-fall.Remember, currencies trade on a relative basis. Thus, a less-bad U.S. economy is good news for the U.S. dollar.Please see below:Figure 6 - 2020 Economic Indicators for Germany, France, Italy, SpainAcross Europe’s largest economies – Germany , France, Italy and Spain – economic activity is rolling over (To explain the chart, alternative economic indicators are high-frequency data like credit card spending, indoor dining traffic, travel activity and location information.)And underpinning the irrationality, the deceleration is happening as the euro is strengthening.Makes sense?Well, considering Spain’s retail sales dipped further into negative territory on Monday (Dec. 28) – coming in at – 5.8% vs. – 5.3% expected – the data speaks for itself.Figure 7 - Spain Retail Sales Constant Prices (Source: Bloomberg/Daniel Lacalle)The bottom line is: the euro bulls are fighting a war they’re unlikely to win. And as the fundamental data worsens, it’s analogous to a platoon losing more and more soldiers. Eventually, the infantry runs out of reserves and it’s time to wave the white flag.And then what happens?Well, then history tries to explain how it all went wrong.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest Stock Market Peak in Early April

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 31.12.2020 04:04
In the first part of this research article, we highlighted some of W.D. Gann's research, particularly the theory of price vibrations, angles, slopes, and how they relate to future price projections/targets.  We also showed how important it was to understand what price does when it reaches these critical inflection points.  In this second part of our research, we are going to explore Gann time/price cycles and how they relate to our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.Our research will show you exactly why we believe an early April 2021 peak may be setting up in the US/global markets and why you need to prepare for this now.  We believe the remainder of the bullish price trend may continue to push higher, scaling very close to the CYAN trendline on the chart below over the next 60+ days before starting to break lower as we near the end of March 2021.  Let's explore why we believe this is likely to happen.We highlighted the importance of the CYAN trend line and the multiple Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that are arcing through the recent price range in Part I.  It is our belief that these critical levels represent a major inflection point in the advance of price and that price may continue to attempt to push higher – but may align itself below the CYAN trendline as it inches closer to the early April Gann price/time arc that we believe will set up a major top in the markets.Weekly SPY Chart Showing Key Price Trendline & Time FactorsWhen we apply time-factoring to the SPY chart below, we are inclined to support the theory that a 200% time factor applies to the current market setup from the lows established in 2009.  If we measure price trend and vibration from the 2009 low point, we immediately come to the October 13, 2014 lows – which were subsequently retested multiple times over the next 3+ years (August 2015, January 2016, February 2016).  Our researchers believe these lows represent the end of one cycle/vibration phase and the beginning of another.  By aligning a mirror-image of the original Gann Time-Arcs to the October 2014 lows, we can see that another critical Gann Vibration cycle is likely ending near mid-April 2021 through early July 2021.We believe the next few weeks and months, as well as almost all of 2021 and beyond, will be full of major trend changes and fluctuating price activity as global investors attempt to navigate the changes in the global markets.  Currently, many of the foreign markets are nearing what appear to be peak levels and, if our Gann research is correct, the US stock market is only about 90 days away from reaching the start of another Gann Time-factoring Vibration energy phase/cycle.  This means there is going to be another shift in how investors perceive value in investments and where capital moves to attempt to hedge/profit from this cycle phase.Weekly SPY Chart Showing Key Price Trendline & Time FactorsThis next Weekly SPY chart shows a closer look at the Gann Time-factor arcs and how they aligned with the previous price corrections.  Pay attention to how accurate these Gann Time-factor arcs predicted the downward price “vibrations” over the past three years.  Remember, these Gann phases are a replica of the 2009 bottom to 2014 peak – applied to the 2014 low price levels.  They represent an exact replica of the same price vibrations that took place between 2009 and 2014.  They also show a period of time between April 2021 and July 2021 which may represent a very big, deep vibration in price which may target low price levels near $292 on the SPY.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!The bigger question in our minds is “do our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs align with W.D. Gann price/time theories and the Law Of Vibration?”  If so, then our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs may be somewhat close to what W.D. Gann attempted to describe relating to his Law Of Vibration and the universal key to unlocking the secrets of identifying and predicting future price peaks/troughs accurately.  If not, then we are confident they will lead us to even more breakthroughs as we continue to attempt to adapt and improve our technical analysis research.One thing is for certain, 2021 appears to be setting up as a traders market where trends may change very quickly and aggressively.  2021 is going to be a year where traders need to stay ahead of the risks and shifting market cycles to find the best assets to own and profit from.  Our BAN technology was designed specifically to address this issue – always being able to find and identify the best assets to own within any type of trend.Our researchers believe increased price volatility will likely be seen near the end of March 2021 and by mid-April 2021, we may already start to see signs of a broad market decline setting up.  Our research suggests a deep bottom may setup in October 2021 or later.  Are you ready for this type of move in the markets?  If not, learn how BAN can help you trade the best assets by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

MicroStrategy Stock Up Over 200% Since Initial Bitcoin Purchase

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 01.01.2021 08:15
One of the most aggressive investments in Bitcoin during the past year has come from MicroStrategy, a NASDAQ-traded business intelligence firm. Led by CEO and Bitcoin mega bull, Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has purchased over $1.3 billion in BTC. This $1.3 billion does not include the hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC that Saylor owns personally. Since MicroStrategy’s initial purchase of Bitcoin, not only has it made $1 billion in unrealized profits, but its stock increased by over 200 percent over the course of five months. MicroStrategy Enters the Bitcoin Arena Saylor was initially skeptical of Bitcoin, but once he changed his mind, things moved fast. A big catalyst to Saylor’s switch was the ongoing inflation the U.S. dollar is facing. In 2020 alone, the U.S. has printed about 35 percent of all dollars ever created, a staggering and scary amount for anyone who stores the majority of their wealth in USD. With continued economic uncertainty due to a global pandemic and increased inflation, Saylor decided that it would be safer to convert a portion of MicroStrategy’s treasury reserves into Bitcoin. Since this first transaction, Saylor has become one of the most prominent proponents of Bitcoin in the industry. He even said that he thinks Bitcoin will one day overtake gold’s market cap, Tweeting out; “It’s dangerous to think that gold and Bitcoin are similar & complementary investments. When the Bitcoin Dragon emerges from its lair, the first thing it will eat is the Kingdom of Gold.” So far, MicroStrategy has purchased over $1 billion in Bitcoin at different prices through different fundraising methods. In its most recent purchase, MicroStrategy raised $650 million in a debt offering and used the proceeds to purchase more BTC for its treasury reserves. Looking At the Charts When looking at the year-to-date MicroStrategy (MSTR) price chart, we can see a relatively flat line throughout the whole year as the price hovered around the $150 range. Starting in November, when Saylor first started purchasing Bitcoin for MicroStrategy, the stock price began to rise. By the end of November, the stock price jumped up to over $340 before eventually falling back down to $280. The price drop didn’t last long though, as MSTR quickly recovered and is now just dollars away from breaking the $400 mark. The post MicroStrategy Stock Up Over 200% Since Initial Bitcoin Purchase appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Will Central Banks Hold Bitcoin in 2021?

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 01.01.2021 20:31
Famed cryptocurrency trader and Aike Capital founder Alex Krüger tweeted on Jan. 1 that the bitcoin – gold relationship needs closer examination. Central banks (CB) will hold bitcoin sooner or later, says Krüger. The reason, he says, has to do with gold and how central banks treat it. In a series of tweets, Krüger shows how demand for gold has changed in 2020.  I've changed my mind.Major central banks will eventually hold #Bitcoin as a reserve asset.So let's explore how central banks' gold demand looks like — Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 1, 2021Habits Are Hard To Break Krüger starts by showing that central bank demand for gold remained steady for much of the past ten years. However, it dropped tremendously in 2020. He also draws attention to the point that adding liquidity drives gold prices higher. So, who bought gold? Without going into detail as to why CBs cut their gold intake so much, Krüger does point out that institutional investors dominated demand in 2020. Jewelry, on the other hand, fell off, as the demand is price sensitive. The Big ‘If’ At this point, Krüger makes an assumption. He tweets: Assume now in five years central bank's demand for bitcoin stands at 5% of their gold demand. That would generate $1.2 billion in additional bitcoin buying pressure.— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) January 1, 2021If CBs buy into bitcoin with just 5% of their gold demand, that would increase demand for the leading crypto by over $1 billion. Krüger sees the entry of the first CB as an event with some consequences. Prices would jump on the news, and speculators would pile in. However, CB for gold demand would only rise. As Jorge Schneider put it: Small becomes a tidalwave…— Jorge schneider (@Jorgeschneide64) January 1, 2021Can Krüger Make a Case for It? Can Krüger make a case for central banks holding bitcoin? Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are on the horizon. But are they a bitcoin killer?  Regarding CBDCs, the answer is that they are probably not bitcoin killers. In fact, there is the possibility that a digital stablecoin could come of it. But the purpose of most CBDCs currently under testing is to create a viable means of transactions. As BeInCrypto reported, China is testing its digital yuan for retail purchases already. A pilot launch for P2P transfers started in December. So far, the European Central Bank and others are declaring the same: digital currencies extend our ability to make transactions. Bitcoin, however, appears to be a store of value more than anything else. The 2020 bull run was not about buying pizza or coffee with bitcoin. In part, it was connected to the long-predicted increased interest by institutional and enterprise investors such as GrayScale and MicroStrategy. Is Krüger right about CBs investing in bitcoin in five years? Or perhaps even this year? Institutional investors took time to become pro-crypto. Only time will tell whether this store of value becomes interesting for the mother of all buyers as well. The post Will Central Banks Hold Bitcoin in 2021? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

2021 May Be A Good Year For The Cannabis/Marijuana Sector

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 03.01.2021 17:03
Great progress in terms of legalization was made for the Cannabis/Marijuana sector in 2020 that will.  The 2020 elections resulted in a number of US states engaging in new Cannabis friendly policies and laws being approved by voters. This suggests a new rally in the Cannabis sector may be setting up in 2021 and beyond for traders. Our BAN - Best Asset Now - trading strategy is always looking out for the next sector to make a trade, and the Cannabis sector is certainly one we are keeping our eyes on! Make sure you sign up for my FREE webinar to find and trade the Best Assets Now just like me.Weekly MJ Price Flag SetupMy research and I team believe the recent longer-term bottom in the MJ ETF, the Alternative Harvest ETF, suggests a broad bottom is setting up in the Cannabis/Marijuana sector.  If this bottom in the Cannabis sector continues to profit support for the entire sector, then we may see price appreciation across many individual Cannabis stocks over the next 12+ months.  Additionally, this price appreciation may prompt quite a bit of consolidation across the entire Cannabis/Marijuana sector.The global use and demand for CBD & THC related products may continue to expand as medical and personal use expands across the US and into other nations.  We are still near the infancy of understanding the true medicinal benefits of this all-natural product.  A new upward price trend in this sector may prompt a global expansion/consolidation event where the Cannabis/Marijuana industry attempts to restructure into true global power companies.Our research team is focused on the possibility that an early 2021 price decline in this sector may setup a broad sector bullish trend near March/April 2021 (or earlier).  We believe the process of this longer-term bottom setup will still require another attempt to consolidate near the MAGENTA support channel before a more substantial breakout will take place.  The current bottom setup is very similar to a Bullish Price Flag setup and we believe the next price low may be an area where real opportunity exists for a final bottom in price.Monthly MJ Bottom SetupThe following Monthly MJ chart highlights the same bottom setup on a longer-term chart basis.  Pay very close attention to how much volume has poured into this sector in October and November 2020.  It is very likely that a new price low, below $11.90~$12.00, will setup within 4 to 8+ weeks that will represent the final downside price move before the Price Flag pattern attempts an upside breakout.  We expect to see stronger volume surge into this final bottom as traders load up before the breakout move begins.As we've been suggesting for a number of months, the broader, longer-term market cycles and trends suggest the next 3 to 5+ years are going to be very dynamic for various market sectors.  Our research team believes the US and global markets have just recently started a broad depreciation phase which may last another 5 to 7+ years.  Typically, within these phases, commodities and other sectors rotate in and out of favor as capital is forced to seek out undervalued and potentially explosive sector trends.This bottom setup in MJ may prompt a number of individual Cannabis and CBD suppliers, processors, end-user manufacturers, and technology providers to engage in a series of acquisition and consolidation steps over the next few years if this sector becomes hot fairly quickly.  Rising prices and expectations may prompt this industry into a consolidation and technology/distribution expansion over the next 4 to 5+ years.  Very similar to the DOT COM/Technology bubbles recently, when a sector gets hot, it tends to prompt quite a bit of investment and activity surrounding the growth and consolidation of industrial components and technology.Do you want to stay ahead of these sector trends and learn which sectors are the best opportunities for your trades?  Our BAN Trader trades the Best Asset Now using to consistently earn better-than-market returns.  Learn how our BAN Trader solution can help you keep focused on the best trading opportunities in 2021 and beyond while helping you protect and grow your wealth.  Go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about BAN Trader, or let me teach you how to trade this strategy yourself by watching my FREE webinar! Scroll below to register for your seat now and make 2021 your year to PROFIT!!Happy Trading!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

GBPUSD Settles Comfortably Higher. Dollar strengthens slightly on year end flows

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.01.2021 08:22
EURUSD Drops Into The Year-End The euro currency was down over 0.63% into the yearly close. The declines come amid thin trading and the US dollar posting a modest rebound. The euro currency has been consolidating near the rising trend line over the past few days. While price action was making modestly higher highs, the pace of gains was gradual. The slowing momentum has led to a decline off the trendline consolidation. If the current declines continue, the euro could be looking to test the 1.2177 level of support. However, with the Stochastics oscillator somewhat oversold we may expect to see a modest rebound in prices. The British pound sterling is maintaining a bullish hold with prices posting a gradual rally since 29 December. The pace of gains, however, is likely to stall given the Doji candlestick patterns near the current levels. A bearish follow-through is required in order to confirm the downside. This could potentially see the GBPUSD falling to the 1.3500 level of support. As long as this support holds, the GBPUSD could be looking to make a rebound once again. With the threat of a hard Brexit now out of the way, the GBPUSD is likely to focus back on the fundamentals. The Stochastics oscillator remains overbought at the moment, indicating a possible correction in the near term. WTI Crude Oil Consolidates Near Current Highs Oil prices are trading flat ever since prices touched intraday highs of 49.29 on 21 December. Since then, oil prices pulled back and are trading in a sideways range. For the moment, this sideways range is likely to continue. However, the OPEC+ meeting today could offer something for oil investors. Depending on the outcome, oil prices could see a possible move in either direction. To the downside, support at 47.17 remains. As long as this support holds, oil prices are likely to maintain the upside bias. To the upside, a close above the 21 December highs of 49.29 is required in order to confirm further gains. Will Gold Breakout Higher? The precious metal was seen consolidating near the 1900 level. Price action previously tested this level before pulling back recently. In the process, we have a potential ascending triangle pattern emerging. If the 1900 level of resistance breaks, then we expect to see further gains coming. A breakout above 1900 will validate the bullish ascending triangle. It puts the next minimum target in price action toward 1922 at the very least. But this would also put gold prices above the 1900 level which has proven hard to break as both a resistance and support level previously.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Polkastarter to Launch Polkacover DeFi Insurance and IDO

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 04.01.2021 08:19
The decentralized exchange built upon the Polkadot network is now launching its own DeFi insurance products and an Initial DEX Offering. Polkastarter has been touted as an Ethereum and Uniswap-rivalling automated market maker and dApp platform. It was launched on Dec. 15 with the purpose of enabling projects to raise capital on the Polkadot network. There have been a few minor partnerships but the new DEX has yet to gain much traction in an already crowded market place. It has now announced the Jan. 21 launch date of a new Polkacover DeFi insurance product and associated token. The day is coming !! We are ecstatic to announce that the PolkaCover #IDO will take place on the rockstar @Polkastarter DEX on Jan21st Join the whitelist on https://t.co/wim3K8FFG9Save the Date!#Polkadot #Bitcoin #polkastarter #DeFi pic.twitter.com/3U6oPfqCD4— Polkacover (@Polkacover) January 3, 2021More DeFi Insurance 2020 has been rife for hacks, scams, smart contract exploits, rug pulls, and flash loan attacks in the DeFi sector so insurance products are in big demand. Polkacover touts itself as the ‘first DeFi insurance marketplace for the global crypto ecosystem’, however, there are already a couple of insurance providers doing something similar. Nexus Mutual offers DeFi insurance and something called ‘shield farming’ to incentivize liquidity providers. The Cover Protocol is another decentralized insurance marketplace, but it was recently exploited in late December. Polkacover aims to collaborate with multi-national insurance providers that offer global insurance products such as crypto-related protection, health, life, education, and family insurance plans. It also aims to provide a fully comprehensive cover that is not currently available with current crypto-insurance offerings. The whitepaper explains; “Presently, the crypto insurance options are mainly either to niche in their coverage or too complex to understand for mass market adoption. This has resulted in a substandard experience for customer and policy management who are faced with a low penetration rate of adopting customers.” It does mention the Binance Security Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) which allocates 10% of trading fees to be used to cover extreme cases. The Polkacover platform will have four development phases; crypto insurance products, a global marketplace, peer-to-peer cover, and decentralized administration and arbitration. It will also offer cover from losses involving company negligence such as the recent Ledger data breach which resulted in a wave of phishing and physical attacks on its unfortunate customers. A New Insurance DAO Token In addition to the POLS DEX token, there will be a new CVR token for the governance of the Insurance DAO and liquidity purposes to create the P2P DeFi insurance platform. Users will be able to provide liquidity to insurance pools for different products, with the investments being allocated in the Polkadot DOT token and redeemable for CVR tokens. There is currently a private sale in process and according to the whitepaper, a total supply has been set at 135 million CVR. It intends a final circulation of 70 million and will buy back and burn tokens quarterly. The post Polkastarter to Launch Polkacover DeFi Insurance and IDO appeared first on BeInCrypto.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.01.2021 15:16
The fate of the U.S. Dollar will weigh heavily on the future of the precious metals in 2021. At first glance, the USDX’s prospects look rather bleak in the first months of the year, but as the pages of the book turn, the dollar’s likely later ascension could prove rather bearish for gold and the PMs.Breaking hearts as the USD Index falls in and out of love, the greenback continues to leave bulls at the altar, which is likely to have important implications for the gold market in the following weeks . Dressed to impress, investors lined the cathedral aisles as the USDX looked ready to commit to the 90-level.But as cold feet turned into a dash for the exit, 2020 ended without a celebration.However, as we enter 2021 and net-short futures positions (non-commercial traders) remain at their highest level since 2006, the slightest shift in sentiment could have wedding bells ringing again.Please see below:Figure 1 – Net-short Futures PositionsIf you analyze the second red box (on the right side), you can see that the 2018 top in net-short futures positions ended with a violent short-covering rally, which propelled the USDX nearly 11% higher from trough to peak.Figure 2 – U.S. Dollar IndexIn this week’s early trading, the USDX moved lower, almost back to the 2020 lows. This was disappointing to anyone hoping that the December 31 rally was the beginning of a sharp rally, somewhat similar to what we saw in early September. In reality, the Dec. 31 rally and today’s decline don’t change much. It is not the immediate-term that is particularly important right now, but the medium and long-term pictures. The indications coming from them are much more decisive, and more important.And while the USDX remains indecisive right now, its price action still follows a familiar playbook: In 2018, the USDX dipped below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level before circling back with a vengeance (The initial bottom occurred in early 2018, with the final bottom not far behind.) Moreover, the 2018 USDX bottom also marked the 2018 top in gold, silver and the gold miners (depicted in the below).Figure 3 – USDX, USD, GOLD, GDX, and SPX ComparisonAlso reprising its former role, the USDX’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) mirrors the double-bottom seen in 2017-2018 (the green arrows at the top-left of the chart). As the initial pattern emerged (with the RSI below 30 in 2017), it preceded a significant rally, with the USDX’s RSI surging to nearly 70. And just like the chorus from your favorite song, the pattern repeated in 2018 with nearly identical results.Today, it’s more of the same.If you look at the pattern at the top-right of the chart (the green arrows), the only difference is time. And in time, the USDX’s likely ascension will put significant pressure on gold, silver and the gold miners. In addition, the precious metals’ underperformance relative to the USDX further implies that a drawdown is the path of least resistance.Moreover, let’s keep in mind the similarity in cryptocurrencies – we now have a parabolic upswing, just like what we saw in early 2018. The history does seem to be rhyming, and this doesn’t bode well for the stock market (there are some individual opportunities, e.g. Matthew Levy, CFA managed to reap great gains in the Taiwanese ETF – it gained over twice as much as the S&P since Dec. 3 ), as well as the precious metals market.It appears that the USD Index is repeating its 2017 – 2018 decline to some extent. The starting points of the declines (horizontal red line) as well as the final high of the biggest correction are quite similar. The difference is that the recent correction was smaller than it was in 2017.Since back in 2018, the USDX’s bottom was at about 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the size of the correction, we could expect something similar to happen this time. Applying the above to the current situation would give us the proximity of the 90 level as the downside target.“So, shouldn’t gold soar in this case?” – would be a valid question to ask.Well, if the early 2018 pattern was being repeated, then let’s check what happened to precious metals and gold stocks at that time.In short, they moved just a little higher after the USDX’s breakdown. I marked the moment when the U.S. currency broke below its previous (2017) bottom with a vertical line, so that you can easily see what gold, silver, and GDX (proxy for mining stocks) were doing at that time. They were just before a major top. The bearish action that followed in the short term was particularly visible in the case of the miners.Consequently, even if the USD Index is to decline further from here, then the implications are not particularly bullish for the precious metals market.To summarize, gold’s recent strength is underpinned by a dormant U.S. dollar. But with the greenback more unloved than the villain in a superhero movie, it won’t take much to change the narrative. Furthermore, with net-short futures positions going from excessive to extreme, the game of musical chairs is likely to end with the shorts capitulating and the USDX moving higher. The implications may be unclear for the next few days, but they are bearish for the next few weeks to months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

DeFi Total Value Locked Nears $20 Billion as ETH Price Increases

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 04.01.2021 13:30
Institutional investors may still have their eyes on Bitcoin, but Ethereum has been attracting a great deal of attention so far in 2021. Ethereum has followed the meteoric price growth that Bitcoin has recently seen, smashing through $1,000 per ETH and eclipsing a $100 billion market cap. With these increases in price, we are also seeing a coinciding increase in total value locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. As evident from a tweet by Quantum Economics founder, Mati Greenspan, “When Ethereum pumps it takes all the markets built on top of it along for the ride.” When #Ethereum pumps it takes all the markets built on top of it along for the ride. pic.twitter.com/P7PP0iVUn9— Mati Greenspan (tweets ≠ financial advice) (@MatiGreenspan) January 4, 2021Is 2021 the ‘Year of DeFi?’ 2020 was a huge year for decentralized applications. At the beginning of January, there was less than $1 billion in total locked value (TVL) across all DeFi apps. Now, just one year later, that number is closing in on $20 billion. With the majority of the DeFi system built on Etheruem, the rise in Ethereum prices after increased usage of applications on its platform was not a coincidence. The more value that is locked into DeFi applications, the more underlying value that the Ethereum ecosystem captures. This also works for the increase in total locked value in DeFi increasing alongside the rise in Ethereum prices. Greenspan explains why this happens, “The TVL figure is measured in US Dollars while much of the value is locked in Ethereum. So when the price per ETH rises, the TVL goes up with it.” Finance in the Digital Age DeFi, short for decentralized finance, is the implementation of traditional financial systems on decentralized platforms. DeFi applications allow users to conduct financial transactions without oversight from a third party, such as a bank or exchange. These applications allow for transactions such as the issuance or receiving of loans, exchanging of assets, providing or receiving insurance, and more. Usually, these applications are peer-to-peer, meaning two users are directly interacting with each other. Without the oversight and charges from third parties, users get to benefit by recapturing the value that was previously profit for financial firms This has led to massive innovations in the financial industry and is allowing for financial interactions to take place that were not possible before. The post DeFi Total Value Locked Nears $20 Billion as ETH Price Increases appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Chinese Lottery Winners to Receive Free Digital Yuan

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 04.01.2021 18:51
China is looking to continue establishing its financial capabilities globally by extending the number of lottery winners using its central bank digital currency, the digital yuan. The central bank digital currency, or CBDC, is a permissioned, state-run cryptocurrency that allows China to track the spending habits of its yuan users. It can also adjust inflation rates and even block citizens from accessing their accounts. In a world where many countries face extreme financial instability, the digital yuan acts as a somewhat easily accessible intermediary currency. Although the introduction of the digital yuan gives China a lot more control over its users, it is nevertheless being widely adopted. In the latest initiative to increase adoption and normalize the CBDC, Chinese authorities have arranged a lottery for citizens from certain towns, giving them the chance to earn free digital currency. According to an official announcement from the Shenzhen Government, a city in China with a population of 12 million people, citizens are eligible to sign up for a municipal lottery reward. The lottery was available on a government-run app for three days with registration officially closing today. 100,000 Yuan Winners The city will choose 100,000 lottery winners, each of which will receive 200 digital yuan, worth a little over $30. The Chinese Government will likely continue promoting these lotteries in cities across the country. This one, in particular, cost slightly over $3 million. One perhaps disturbing aspect of Chinese digital fiat is the ability of network administrators to control certain outcomes. Lucky lottery winners can spend digital yuan winnings at 10,000 preregistered merchants, but they’ll only have ten days to do so before the winnings are no longer active. One of the Government’s goals for the CBDC appears to be to make it widely accessible and compete globally against other dominant currencies, like the US dollar. Since all users will need to interact with the digital yuan via a compatible wallet, it may appeal to citizens of other countries looking for a better store of value. Whether or not this plays out, though, is still largely unproven. The digital yuan is already widely adopted in China, with over four million individual transactions at the end of November 2020. The value transacted equates to more than two billion yuan, approximately $300 million. The post Chinese Lottery Winners to Receive Free Digital Yuan appeared first on BeInCrypto.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

ESG Flows Drive Clean Energy to Fresh Highs

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 05.01.2021 00:04
The ESG theme has taken the capital markets by storm in 2020. Fund flows into this space have been relentless, helping to drive the clean energy sector to fresh highs. In the first half of 2020, 23-new exchange-traded funds were launched under the ESG umbrella. By the end of the Q3, ESG index funds hit $250 billion in value. The ESG umbrella focuses on many different areas and has flourished during the pandemic. With a vaccine on the horizon, the question for investors is whether this sector will remain sustainable.What is ESG and ESG InvestingThe term ESG stands for:EnvironmentalSocialGovernanceThe term brings to mind concepts like climate change, diversity and inclusion, and resource scarcity. While these are forms of ESG, it also covers social practices, including labor and talent management and data security and product safety. It includes employee experience, executive pay, and ethics. There is a wide divide amongst stakeholders on what the term means and how to communicate and manage the concept.ESG investing appears to be a derivative of socially responsible investing (SRI), which has been in existence for decades. While profits have always been considered the "mothers milk" of stocks, modern investors have realized that shortchanging stakeholders is a high price for society to pay. A company's stakeholders include its employees, customers, suppliers, as well as the environment, which play a crucial role in the functioning of the corporation.There is a fine line between ESG investing and SRI. ESG investors actively look for companies that show robust environmental, social, or governance attributes. SRI focuses on excluding industries that have failed to demonstrate compliance in socially responsible areas. ESG provides broader flexibility into specific companies' practices and the different management attributes that make up a corporate initiative.Inflows Into ESG Have Been ImpressiveInflows to ESG have been robust. ESG ETFs surged to $22 billion in the first half of 2020, which was more than 3X the 2019 total, according to Bloomberg. One of the issues that regulators face is that there is no clear definition of what constitutes ESG.The Concept is Here to StaySome corporate actions show me that ESG is here to stay. Stakeholders at public companies are getting assurances from management that their contributions will remain an essential aspect of management's focus. In 2020, Starbucks Corp. announced that the company would mandate antibias training for executives and tie their compensation to increasing minority representation in its workforce. Their diversity and inclusion mandate's target is to have 30% of corporate employees be minorities by 2025. While profits at any level are key, it's hard to imagine that an executive will allow their bonus to be eroded by failing to meet a corporate ESG mandate.The Best Asset Now ProcessI have mentioned this before and I have not wavered. I like to use a BAN strategy (Best Asset Now) to find leading sectors. Two ETFs have largely outperformed the rest that conforms to the ESG concept. These ETFs represent sectors that have shown leadership and are currently two of the top-5 best performing ETFs in 2020. These ETFs have generated bullish chart patterns that point to much higher prices following their recent breakouts.There is a reason to be bullish. President-elect Joe Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry to lead his administration's climate change efforts. Kerry will be the "climate czar" and will be in charge of coordinating programs that are expected to stretch across multiple agencies. This could include executive orders issued by the new President-Elect to provide avenues beyond Congress to advance climate priorities. This is positive news for clean energy ETFs. If you are a stock trader, these are the BAN ETFs to look at which will outperform.*source - https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-ytd-returns/TAN Hits Fresh HighsThe Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Solar ETF accelerated to multi-year highs in November and is poised to test resistance near the 2011 highs at $91.70. This would add another 11% to its already robust 162% return in 2020. While prices could temporarily consolidate near this $92, a close above this level would lead to a test of the 2010 highs at $115. A close above $115 could lead to a test of the all-time highs near $307. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.*source TradingviewPBW Invesco Exchange-Traded Wilderhill Clean Energy ETFHas broken out and is poised to test the 2008 highs near $119.50. Support is seen near the 10-week moving average of $71.70. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory, which points to higher prices.Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!*source TradingviewDo you want to stay ahead of these sector trends and learn which sectors are the best opportunities for your trades?   Learn how our BAN Trader Pro education and alerts can help you keep focused on the best trading opportunities in 2021 and beyond while helping you protect and grow your wealth.  Go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about BAN Trader Pro, or let me teach you how to trade this strategy yourself by watching my FREE webinar! Scroll below to register for your seat now and make 2021 your year to PROFIT!!I wish you all a healthy and profitable New Year!!
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

On-chain Metrics Suggest Ethereum Could Still be Undervalued

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 05.01.2021 06:43
Ethereum prices revisited the four-figure territory again this morning following a minor pullback that threatened heavier losses. Some on-chain metrics are suggesting it is still undervalued even after its recent rally. After hitting $1,150 on some exchanges on Jan. 4, Ethereum prices retreated sharply following Bitcoin as the CME gap closed resulting in a 10% correction for BTC. ETH prices slid back to $850 within six hours but did not remain there long. At the time of press, Ethereum prices were battling to hold on to the $1,000 level. Industry commentator Alex Saunders tweeted his bullish prospects for Ethereum making new all-time highs. Record high for $ETH was on @coinbase at $1500. Currently trading at $1050 puts us 45% away. But after everything we've witnessed in the past 12 months, would it really surprise you to see a 50% sling shot over this weekend or even a day? I feel it's about to shock us all. pic.twitter.com/InlrjzYsV2— Alex Saunders (@AlexSaundersAU) January 4, 2021Other analysts and observers have suggested that the real monetary fundamentals for Ethereum have yet to kick in. Additionally, one metric is also suggesting that the asset has further to go. Ethereum Still Undervalued According to the latest Glassnode Insights report, Ethereum spent less than one month in the four-figure territory before entering a painful bear market that lasted two and a half years. “However, on-chain signals suggest that we are still in the earlier stages of a bull market, relative to the same price levels in 2018.” The report analyzed the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio which is the relationship between market capitalization and realized capitalization. The metric, created by David Puell and Murad Muhmudov, gives an indication of when the traded price is below a ‘fair value.’ Glassnode stated that the MVRV ratio is still extremely low relative to early 2018 when the price was equivalent to current levels. When the ratio was this low previously, in the lead-up to the 2017 bull run, ETH prices were still below $25. “This indicates that in the current market, there is room for significant further growth before ETH becomes overvalued.” New Highs in Sight As we’ve seen countless times before, Ethereum has yet to fully decouple from the movements of Bitcoin, so its next move is likely to follow along. On the downside, there is immediate support in the mid-$800 range and even heavier support around $725 where ETH consolidated for nearly a week. Another leg up could meet resistance at $1,230 where previous weekly candles closed. At current levels, Ethereum is just under 40% away from a new all-time high. The post On-chain Metrics Suggest Ethereum Could Still be Undervalued appeared first on BeInCrypto.
DeFi TVL Reaches $20 Billion While ETH Locked Dwindles

DeFi TVL Reaches $20 Billion While ETH Locked Dwindles

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 07:50
The total value locked (TVL) figure for the decentralized finance ecosystem has reached a record level just shy of $20 billion. However, more and more Ethereum is being withdrawn from the space. Decentralized finance (DeFi) has hit another milestone in terms of total value locked according to metrics provider DeFi Pulse. On Jan. 6, the figure hit $19.87 billion, an all-time high and an increase of 2,800% since the same time last year. Many have questioned this method of measuring market sentiment and performance since numbers can be duplicated from the same asset being farmed or wrapped for use on different protocols.  However, it’s one of the few DeFi metrics we have and does provide some insight on the overall performance of the fledgling financial ecosystem. DeFi TVL Chart – DeFi PulseDeFi Positive Feedback Loop Writing in the latest Defiant newsletter, researcher Owen Fernau labeled the TVL growth a “positive feedback loop,” noting that it should also serve to push the price of ETH higher as has happened in recent weeks; “TVL’s growth serves as a positive feedback loop: increases in value locked suggest increased utility of Ethereum,” Ethereum currently constitutes around 35% of the TVL which is measured in USD. Its price surge and other metrics suggest ETH is still undervalued. So while TVL is increasing, it doesn’t necessarily mean that more ETH is being locked in DeFi. In fact, the opposite is occurring. The amount of ETH locked in DeFi has fallen by 26% since its peak of 9.5 million ETH in October 2020. Today, that figure stands at just below 7 million ETH. Where is the ETH Going? There could be a number of reasons for this exodus of ETH. speculation on spot markets could be driving Ethereum holders to trade the asset since its volatility has increased along with the price. Arbitraging could also be occurring, but this is likely to be done by the whales since smaller trades and swaps would be eaten up in gas fees at the moment. The amount of the asset locked in the Beacon Chain deposit contract also continues to climb and has now reached 2.27 million ETH, or roughly 2% of the total supply. This is a third of the 6% that is currently locked in DeFi. At today’s prices, the amount of ETH staked and locked for at least another year is valued at $2.45 billion. According to the ETH 2.0 Launchpad, it’s currently yielding just over 10% for investors. The numbers are all bullish for Ethereum which is proving its versatility time and time again despite the exorbitant current cost of using it. The post DeFi TVL Reaches $20 Billion While ETH Locked Dwindles appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Stock Pick Update: Jan. 6 – Jan. 12, 2021

Stock Pick Update: Jan. 6 – Jan. 12, 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.01.2021 14:04
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Materials stocks and one Energy stock this time.In the last five trading days (December 30 – January 5) the broad stock market has fluctuated following its record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,769.90 on Monday before retracing most of its December advances.The S&P 500 has lost 0.25% between December 30 open and January 5 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.29%. So stock picks basically followed the broad stock market’s performance last week. Our long stock picks have gained 0.46%, but short stock picks have resulted in a loss of 1.04%.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 30 open – January 5 close % change): NVDA (+3.19%), INTC (+3.05%), ABBV (+1.32%), VRTX (-2.73%), FB (-2.51%)Short Picks (December 30 open – January 5 close % change): DUK (-0.19%), SO (-0.53%), MPC (+2.88%), VLO (+3.07%), SPG (-0.05%)Average long result: +0.46%, average short result: -1.04%Total profit (average): -0.29%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, January 6 – Tuesday, January 12 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (January 6) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (January 12).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Materials, 2 x Energy, 1 x Technologysells: 2 x Real Estate, 2 x Utilities, 1 x IndustrialsBuy CandidatesECL Ecolab, Inc. - MaterialsStock remains above the support level of $212.50Possible breakout above short-term consolidationThe resistance level is at $220-225CE Celanese Corp. – MaterialsPossible breakout above month-long downward trend lineThe support level is at $125.00 and the resistance level is at $137.50KMI Kinder Morgan Inc. – EnergyStock broke above the downward trend line – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $13.40 and resistance level is at $15, among othersSumming up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Materials and Energy sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold at or Near Top

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.01.2021 16:13
The thing that most likely raised quite a few eyebrows this week was – in addition to gold’s recent move by itself – the fact that gold rallied mostly without the dollar’s help. Yesterday (Jan. 5) I wrote that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and that a single session rarely changes much.We didn’t have to wait for long – the situation seems to be getting back to normal.Figure 1 - COMEX Gold FuturesAfter the January 4th rally, gold moved only insignificantly higher, and it’s even a bit lower in today’s pre-market trading.Figure 2 - USD IndexWhile the USD Index didn’t decline on Jan. 4, it did in the following days – yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading. So, the gold-USD link seems to be relatively normal after all; it doesn’t – by itself – indicate further relative strength in gold .There are three important things that one needs to note here.The first one is what I already wrote previously – gold is not even above its Nov. 2020 high, while the USDX is below its 2020 low, which means that gold is weak relative to the USD Index and Monday’s (Jan. 4) rally seems to have been an exception.The second one is also something that I wrote about previously – gold is right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal and it might have just topped (given its tiny decline despite a decline in the USDX).The third one is that the USD Index has quite a steep declining resistance line that’s based on the early-November and late-November highs. Each previous attempt to break above it that we saw in the last few weeks failed. But thanks to the steepness of the line, the USD Index is at this line even despite today’s decline. All it takes for the USD Index to break above it is for it to do… nothing. This should be relatively easy given how excessive the bearishness is in this market, how similar it is to what we saw in early 2018, what’s happening in the RSI and even given the similarity between 2018 and now in the cryptocurrencies. You can see details on the chart below.Figure 3 - USDX, USD, GOLD, GDX, and SPX ComparisonBy the way, someone who is not interested in markets or investments at all just called me yesterday to ask if I can help an individual they knew with cryptos – this is a classic case study of something that you see in the final stages of a price bubble. It’s an example of the general public buying, and they tend to enter at the tops. Bitcoin is at about $35,000 when I’m writing these words - you have been warned.How does it all combine? The gold-USD link is intact and a soaring USDX would likely trigger a sell-off in gold. There are many reasons due to which the USDX is likely to rally soon, even the situation in the cryptocurrency market makes the current time similar to early 2018. The triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold is right about now, so it seems that we won’t have to wait for long.Figure 4 - COMEX Silver FuturesAdditionally, silver is showing strength.Figure 5 – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFMiners, however, are not showing strength. They even declined yesterday (by just one cent, but still) while gold moved a bit higher, but this is just a small confirmation of what we’ve been seeing for many weeks.Let’s study the above chart:Miners were underperforming gold for many days and weeks, and they showed strength on Monday (Jan. 4). Just like in the case of gold – it was a one-day phenomenon, and one swallow doesn’t make a summer.During the day, the GDX ETF managed to rally above its 50-day moving average – just as it did at its November top. Unlike gold, miners are not very close to their November high. They corrected about 61.8% of the decline from this top. Moreover, please note that miners have corrected about 38.2% of the August – November decline. They haven’t even erased half of the decline that occurred in the previous months – so it’s definitely too early to say that miners started a new powerful rally here. Instead, we see that miners are making lower lows and lower highs.Moreover, please take note of the spike in volume that we saw on Monday. There were very few cases when we saw something similar in the previous months, which was at the November high and at the July high, right before the final 2020 top. The implications are bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Cypriot Hospital Tracks Covid-19 Vaccination Records With VeChain

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 13:53
Tracking records safely and immutably is important when dealing with health records. A hospital in Cyprus has stored its first 100 Covid-19 vaccination records using the VeChain Thor blockchain. With all the growth in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other ‘mainstream’ cryptocurrencies, other useful blockchain applications are being overlooked. One of those may be VeChain, a decentralized supply chain management platform. This particular use-case has become more important following the outbreak of the global pandemic in Wuhan, China. The VeChain Foundation confirmed the news via its Twitter account: “The first 100 COVID-19 vaccination records for medical personnel at The Mediterranean Hospital of Cyprus are now securely stored on the #VeChain public blockchain. With this tech, govs and individuals are assured of the quality and validity of results.” The first 100 COVID-19 vaccination records for medical personnel at The Mediterranean Hospital of Cyprus are now securely stored on the #VeChain public blockchain.With this tech, govs and individuals are assured of the quality and validity of results.https://t.co/yKzLuF06mj— VeChain Foundation (@vechainofficial) January 5, 2021Is Storing Medical Records Using Blockchain Useful? The medical field is likely looking to maintain accurate medical records, especially when the world is under a massive, novel virological threat. If an organization decides to maintain its records on a distributed and decentralized ledger, it can theoretically guarantee the ‘quality and validity’ of the results. Third parties cannot manipulate immutable blockchains. VeChain’s VeThor platforms offer a variety of tracing methods, one of those being temperature tracking. The Covid-19 vaccine needs to stay within a specifically low temperature to maintain its efficacy. According to Moderna, the temperatures are even lower than what a refrigerator can provide. Could decentralized vaccine tracing ensure they remain at the correct temperature before being distributed? That’s the goal, but it has yet to be proven. What is Vechain? VeChain is a decentralized supply chain management platform created to provide increased insight and tracking of product supply chains. VeChain claims that users can track the life of a product across its entire supply chain, guaranteeing its authenticity and making sure all necessary steps were taken to deliver a quality product. In theory, this model could be applied to various products, such as food, medicine, luxury goods, collectibles, and anything else that needs verifiable authenticity. As the medical crisis from the novel coronavirus unfolds, vaccine distribution may play a vital role for the project and other blockchains that depend on immutable data. The post Cypriot Hospital Tracks Covid-19 Vaccination Records With VeChain appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Stellar’s XLM up Almost 150% in Last 7 Days

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 17:09
Has alt season arrived? It just might have. Stellar Lumens (XLM) has appreciated dramatically over the past week. Before altcoin season commences, bitcoin and ether may need to see drastic price increases. Bitcoin has already broken the $35,000 handle for the first time, and ether is up over 50% in the last week. Although the number one and two cryptocurrencies have been stealing the show, Stellar’s XLM token has been the biggest gainer of the week, by far. In the last seven days, XLM is up over 140%, increasing its price by over 90% in the last 24 hours alone. According to CoinGecko, an online cryptocurrency market capitalization aggregator, this makes XLM the top-performing cryptocurrency out of the 100 largest tokens. What Caused the Recent Price Spike? It’s hard to pinpoint what caused XLM to take off, as there have been few announcements that would point to such a massive increase in growth. The US Treasury of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the largest US-based banking regulator, recently issued guidance on banks using stablecoins for settlement. Some users think Stellar is particularly positioned well for adoption. Since the announcement doesn’t point to any specific blockchain protocol, those users are mostly just speculating, though. XLM massively appreciating this week against the dollar | Source: TradingViewWhat is Stellar and XLM? The Stellar network is a decentralized, open-source protocol that allows cross border transactions between any pair of currencies. Its native cryptocurrency, XLM, is a governance token that serves as a reward mechanism for users who help secure the network. As the ninth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization with a current valuation of almost $9 billion (according to CoinGecko), the Stellar network is one of the biggest players in the blockchain space. Managed by the Stellar Foundation, a non-profit oversight board, Stellar is looking to position itself as an easy and accessible bridge between cryptocurrency and fiat currencies. Since the inception of the Stellar network in 2015, the network has processed over 450 million unique transactions made by over four million individuals. With Stellar’s open-source and decentralized technology, both small-sized developers and gigantic conglomerates can take advantage of the network to potentially increase transaction efficiency. Stellar is looking to continue its mainstream adoption growth by offering users transactions with any currency on the blockchain. It’s unclear whether Stellar will rise at the astronomical rate it currently is, but it may be a project to keep an eye on. The post Stellar’s XLM up Almost 150% in Last 7 Days appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

ShapeShift Removes KYC Requirements with Decentralized Protocol Integration

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 06.01.2021 18:48
Long-running cryptocurrency exchange ShapeShift has announced the integration of decentralized protocols in a fundamental shift to its business model. The change allows the exchange to do away with the controversial Know-Your-Customer (KYC) checks added in 2018. Under the previous model, ShapeShift itself was the counterparty to all trades. Advances in exchange protocols, like those underlying popular decentralized exchanges (DEXs), allow trading directly between platform users. With ShapeShift integrating such protocols, it no longer needs to collect user data. ShapeShift Reverts to Non-KYC Model Earlier Wednesday, ShapeShift founder and CEO Erik Voorhees announced the radical shift. As detailed in a Medium post, the cryptocurrency exchange will no longer require users to submit personal information to trade on the platform. Tomorrow is here https://t.co/4y1ril0ftc— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) January 6, 2021The post explains the founding of ShapeShift in the wake of the 2014 Mt. Gox hack. Its goal was to reduce counterparty risk for those trading digital assets. ShapeShift’s model allowed users to trade directly from their own wallets. By contrast, centralized exchanges require traders to first deposit to the platform. This places their assets at the mercy of the trading venue’s own security. In the years since ShapeShift’s founding, numerous security breaches at trading venues has put users’ assets and personal information at risk. Until 2018, ShapeShift neither custodied user assets or collected their data. In Sept. 2018, ShapeShift announced the inclusion of KYC checks to its services. The company attracted immense criticism from cryptocurrency observers at the time: Oh I agree, but then you still have the option to shut your business down (in jurisdictions where necessary) or become a KYC honeypot. I have no issue with exchanges doing KYC/AML. Shapeshift's business model was that it was free of that.— WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) September 5, 2018In Wednesday’s post, Voorhees explained that this former business model had placed it under the purview of the Bank Secrecy Act, forcing it to collect user data. ShapeShift CEO: KYC Dissolves the Privacy of All Individuals Voorhees’ post suggests that the CEO is strongly opposed to the collection of user data. Describing such practices as “dangerous,” he cites the 20 million people that suffer from identity theft each year in the United States. Indeed, leaked user data recently grabbed cryptocurrency headlines. As BeInCrypto previously reported, a 2020 security breach at the hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger resulted in victims receiving death threats over the Christmas holidays. The post further explains that KYC data collection is “ineffective”  and that he finds it “plainly unethical.” He writes: “KYC dissolves the privacy not of certain specific individuals accused of wrongdoing, but the privacy of all individuals, none of whom have been accused of anything.” Shift Towards Decentralization Already Begun As part of the announcement, Voorhees revealed that trading support for Ethereum and ERC-20 tokens under the new model was already live. He added that the company would extend the service to bitcoin and “several other leading chains” during Q1 2021. Trading of non-ETH assets will continue for a period under the old model. However, users wishing to do so will still need to prove their identities. Voorhees added that the company hadn’t given up in the fight against “bad guys” and “sinister activity.” ShapeShift will reportedly continue to collaborate with those in the industry monitoring for illicit activity but says KYC checks are an ineffective way to do so. The post ShapeShift Removes KYC Requirements with Decentralized Protocol Integration appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Uniswap Liquidity Surges to $3 Billion Amid Gas Price Crisis

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.01.2021 06:52
Liquidity on the world’s most popular decentralized exchange, Uniswap, has skyrocketed despite a massive surge in gas prices. It seems that cryptocurrency traders can’t get enough of token swapping as decentralized exchange popularity continues to grow and eat the market share of their centralized cousins. Uniswap suffered a major liquidity decline when yield farming incentives ended in mid-November 2020. A governance vote was carried out and the decision was not to extend them, resulting in an exodus from the DEX. Fast forward six weeks and that liquidity has returned despite the lack of yield farming pools on the platform. Uniswap Liquidity Tops $3 Billion Uniswap founder Hayden Adams noted the achievement stating that liquidity had surpassed $3 billion and was approaching its all-time high. According to the exchange’s own analytics, that number was $3.36 billion on Nov. 13.   Liquidity on @UniswapProtocol just passed $3.1b, approaching an all time high This time without any UNI liquidity mining incentives Just hundreds of thousands of real users generating millions of dollars in daily trading fees ($14.1M this week) pic.twitter.com/w8OpIK9gXV— Hayden Adams (@haydenzadams) January 6, 2021The liquidity spike began on Jan. 2 and a billion dollars was added over the next five days according to those charts. The top pair on the DEX is wBTC/ETH generating $43 million in volume and $129,000 in trading fees over the past 24 hours. Without any token farming incentives, liquidity providers only get a share of the 0.3% trading fee for their respective pools. 24-hour trading volumes are currently around $750 million according to Uniswap. Better yields can be found elsewhere, but Uniswap still appears to be the preferred choice for token swaps. DeFi Pulse reports slightly different figures with a total value locked of $2.65 billion, but the trend and chart pattern is similar. It also reports that the TVL figure has increased by 7.6% over the past 24 hours but the amount of ETH locked continues to decline. The surge in DeFi activity, and Ethereum’s pumping prices, has added to the gas crisis as average transaction fees hit a record high of $16 on Jan. 4 according to BitInfoCharts. Fee costs have retreated a bit since and the analytics website is currently reporting the average fee at around $9, which is still very painful for anyone not shifting large quantities. UNI Price Update Uniswap’s native UNI token has been flying recently, along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market. UNI prices are flat on the day at $6.24 according to Coingecko but have made an impressive 50% over the past seven days. Prices for the DEX governance token are now not far off its all-time high of just over $7 which came in mid-September when its token farming incentives were launched. The post Uniswap Liquidity Surges to $3 Billion Amid Gas Price Crisis appeared first on BeInCrypto.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

GBPUSD Gives Back Gains From Previous Day

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.01.2021 09:47
Dollar recovers from a fresh two and half year lowEURUSD Pares Gains Near Trend-LineThe euro currency is down about 0.20% intraday. The declines come right after the common currency rose to a new two and a half year high.However, the test of the trendline from below indicates strong resistance here. For the moment, the current continuation remains questionable.The euro currency will need to post a strong decline and a lower high to confirm the start of a correction.For now, the initial support is near the 1.2215 level. As long as this level holds, the upside bias in the euro remains intact.The Stochastics oscillator is also quite overbought and gives scope for further declines in the common currency.The British pound sterling is seen giving back the gains made on Tuesday. This puts price action to trade rather flat but increases the downside bias.On the short term charts, the formation of a lower high indicates that the pound sterling could push lower.However, prices will contend with the initial support level near 1.3506. As long as this level holds, there is scope for the GBPUSD to make gains.However, if prices close below this level convincingly, then there is scope for a continuation to the downside.This will bring the sideways range of 1.3500 and 1.3100 back into focus.Oil Gains As Saudi Cuts OutputWTI crude oil touched $50.00 a barrel on Wednesday in the early Asian session. The gains came after the OPEC+ meeting saw Saudi Arabia cutting oil output by one million barrels per day.The rise to $50.00 marks the first time testing this level since February 25, 2020. For the moment, price action is seen retesting the rising trendline from below.If the trendline holds, then we expect to see a possible reversal off the $50.00 handle.A breakout above the trendline could see further gains likely. However, for the moment, oil prices could consolidate between the 50.00 and 47.00 price levels.Gold Price Retreats Off 1950 ResistanceThe precious metal once again failed to breakout above the key 1950 level of resistance.Following the failure, gold prices lost close to 2.30% intraday. The declines push gold prices back to the key support level near the 1900 – 1911 price area.As long as this support level holds, gold is likely to post a rebound.However, if price closes convincingly below the 1900 level then that could potentially put an end to the current rally.For the moment, the bias in gold prices remains mixed.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Markets Surge Despite Unprecedented Violence at U.S. Capitol

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.01.2021 16:11
In a news-filled day, the Dow Jones hit an all-time high on Wednesday (Jan. 6), despite unprecedented unrest taking place in Washington D.C.News RecapThe Dow climbed 438 points or 1.4% and briefly rose more than 600 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 also gained 0.6% and hit an intraday record, while the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 surged by nearly 4%.The day began with investors focused on the Georgia U.S. Senate special election runoff . Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler, with other Democrat Jon Ossoff announced as the winner over incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue later in the day.With a Democrat sweep in Georgia, the party now has control of the Senate. Although it is a 50-50 split (with two independents) in the Senate, both Democrats win, they have full control because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will serve as the tiebreaker vote.Many believe that because President-elect Biden, a Democrat, has a House and Senate under Democrat control, he could more easily pass higher taxes and progressive policies that may hurt the market. On the other hand, others believe that this Democrat sweep could bring into effect a larger and quicker stimulus relief bill.The real news of the day was what happened at the U.S. Capitol building. After President Trump (and his family) led a “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington, D.C. to protest Congress’ certification of Joe Biden as the next president, angry MAGA supporters did the unthinkable and stormed the Capitol.Wednesday (Jan. 6) was the first time since 1814 that the Capitol building was physically breached by hostile actors.The invasion of the Capitol occurred after Vice President Mike Pence rejected President Trump’s calls to block Joe Biden’s election confirmation. Shortly after, the Capitol went into full lockdown.Later that night, the Capitol was secured and Congress reconvened to officially certify Biden as the president. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) moved higher due to the unrest at the Capitol.Caterpillar (CAT) surged 5.5%, while big banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) gained 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Other names and sectors that could be aided by Biden’s agenda rose as well such as the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) which boomed 8.4%.Tech lagged on the day due to fears of higher taxes and higher stimulus potential. Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) each fell more than 2%, while Netflix (NFLX) dipped 3.9%.The 10-year Treasury note yield topped 1% for the first time since March.What a newsworthy day Wednesday (Jan. 6) was. What started as a day focused on Senate runoff elections with the balance of Senate power at stake, ended with President-elect Biden being officially confirmed as the next president. But in between? A mob took over the capitol building! Did you ever think you would read that sentence in your lifetime?Love him or hate him, President Trump is an eccentric character to put it lightly. Scorned, and still convinced that he won the election, Trump and his bruised ego whipped his supporters into a frenzy during a “Stop the Steal” rally and encouraged them to march towards the Capitol and make their voices heard. Somehow the protest turned into a storming of the Capitol after Vice President Mike Pence refused to overturn the election. Pence was later ushered out of the Senate and the Capitol went into lockdown.What’s truly shocking here is that the markets still went up! In fact, the Dow hit yet ANOTHER all-time high! Whether you like it or not, this has to give you some sort of faith in the resiliency of capitalism,The results of the Georgia election can be credited for the market surge.Although some sectors plummeted due to fears of higher taxes and stricter regulations, with full Democrat control of the Presidency, Senate, and House, there is clarity for one, and expectations of further spending and government stimulus.Goldman Sachs expects another big stimulus package of around $600 billion . While this could be bad for the national debt and have long-term consequences, in the short-term, it could send the economy heating. Small-cap stocks surged as a result.I still believe that there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. Many of these moves upwards or downwards are based on emotion and sentiment, and I believe there could be some serious volatility in the near-term. Although markets on Wednesday (Jan. 6) may have been overly excited from the “Blue Wave” thanks to Georgia, consider this: the Capitol was invaded and the pandemic is still wreaking havoc! Even though the markets gained and the 10-year treasury ticked above 1% for the first time since March, the VIX still rose which means that fear is on the rise.There was no pullback to end 2020 as I anticipated, but I still believe that markets have overheated in the short-term, and that between now and the end of Q1 2020 a correction could happen.Carl Icahn seemingly agrees with me, and told CNBC on Monday (Jan. 4) that “in my day I’ve seen a lot of wild rallies with a lot of mispriced stocks, but there is one thing they all have in common. Eventually they hit a wall and go into a major painful correction.”National Securities’ chief market strategist Art Hogan also believes that we could see a 5%-8% pullback as early as this month.I believe though that corrections are healthy and could be a good thing. Corrections happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one since there has not been one since the lows of March 2020. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.While there will certainly be short-term bumps in the road, I love the outlook in the mid-term and long-term once vaccines become more widely available. The pandemic is awful right now, and these new infectious strains out of the U.K. and South Africa are quite concerning. But despite this, I believe the positive manufacturing data released on Tuesday (Jan. 5) is a step in the right direction, especially considering all the restrictions that most countries are living through.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Can Small-caps Own 2021?Small-caps are the comeback darlings of the week. Although I believed that the Russell 2000’s record-setting run since the start of November was coming to an end, it has rallied over 5% in the last two trading days. Thanks to a Democrat sweep in Georgia and hopes of further economic stimulus, small-cap stocks have climbed back towards record highs.I love small-cap stocks in the long-term, especially as the world reopens. A Democrat-dominated Congress could help these stocks too. But I believe that in the short-term, the index, by any measurement, has simply overheated. Before Jan. 4, the RSI for the I WM Russell 2000 ETF was at an astronomical 74.54. I called a pullback happening in the short-term due to this RSI, and it happened. Well now the RSI is back above 72, and I believe that a bigger correction in the near-term could be imminent.Stocks simply just don’t always go up in a straight line, and that’s what the Russell 2000 has essentially been between November and December.What this also comes down to is that small-caps are more sensitive to the news - good or bad. I believe that vaccine gains have possibly been baked in by now. There could be another near-term pop due to hopes of further stimulus, but I believe that it’s likely possible that small-caps in the near-term could trade sideways before an eventual larger pullback.I truthfully hope small-caps decline a minimum of 10% before jumping back in for long-term buying opportunities.SELL and take Wednesday’s (Jan. 6) profits if you can- but do not fully exit positions .If there is a pullback, this is a STRONG BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

South Korean Gaming Conglomerate to Purchase Bithumb for $460M

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.01.2021 14:58
Nexon, one of the largest gaming companies in South Korea and the world, has announced that it will be acquiring the Bithumb cryptocurrency exchange for approximately 500 billion won, approximately $460 million. South Korean agency Maekyung broke the news, stating that Nexon and Bithumb have officially signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to kickstart the process The deal will result in Nexon acquiring a ~65% stake in the Bithumb exchange. Bithumb is currently the largest cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea, so the acquisition may be a natural fit for both companies. Not Nexon’s First Foray Into Cryptocurrency If the deal goes through, this will be Nexon’s third acquisition of a major cryptocurrency exchange. The gaming giant is quickly becoming one of the most dominant players in the crypto exchange space. Nexon also owns other popular exchanges like Bitstamp and Korbit. Bithumb has reportedly been looking to offload ownership to a buyer for some time. Another firm almost acquired it in 2018, though, it may finally have found an ideal buyer in Nexon. The Deal Is Not Guaranteed Although an MOU has already been signed, it doesn’t guarantee that the deal will reach completion. There are still uncertainties surrounding the management practices at Bithumb. South Korea’s Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency investigated the exchange and its chairman Lee Jung Hoon in September. Authorities accused the firm of selling its native cryptocurrency, BXA, without listing the coin. Bithumb allegedly sold 30 billion won in tokens, almost $30 million, causing heavy investor losses after not listing the coin. Institutional Money Pouring In The investment reveals the organization’s confidence in the longevity of the cryptocurrency trading market. Several large international organizations have been investing or integrating crypto trading into their platforms. One such example is PayPal, which recently launched an internal trading platform that allows users to trade major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether. PayPal’s exchange just set a new milestone with $100 million in daily trading volume. This figure is particularly high for a firm that has basically just launched trading capabilities. With all-time high bitcoin prices and ether on the cusp of its own record, capital is likely to continue pouring in. The post South Korean Gaming Conglomerate to Purchase Bithumb for $460M appeared first on BeInCrypto.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Silver, you got to know how!

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.01.2021 13:47
We have identified the most commonly made mistake in technical analysis to be the representation. Representation equals psychology! Psychology being the most important aspect of trading means that the way charts are represented is extremely important. Rarely do we see trading supportive setups. Silver, you got to know how!Here are a few tips we find useful to get the best out of your chart space.Less is not always more.In our opinion charts from cell phones are useless. Their aspect ratios and general size do not allow for the professional to translate into a decision-making process that is conducive to execution. While larger handheld devices and small laptops are an upgrade to these stamp size representations, we still vote for a multi-screen trade setup for the following reasons. For back testing and chart analysis you want to see nuances of various time frames represented next to each other.For execution, you want a quiet workspace meaning it isn’t conducive to flip between workspaces or expand and collapse windows. Take small time frames. Sorting and execution windows should be outside your main visual sensory field as they produce a lot of data leading to data exhaustion over time. Split widescreen monitors into halves or thirds because stretched chart windows distort the ratio to the point that trend and range differentiation are hard to make out. This being one of the most important things to read out of a chart.Silver, Monthly Arithmetic Chart. Silver, you got to know how!Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Another aspect little known is the principle on how to use arithmetic versus logarithmic charts. You want to use arithmetic charts for shorter time segments to have an accurate representation of trends and ranges. For long term monthly data, it is advisable to use logarithmic representation. This is due to the fact that event proportions get swallowed once price ranges are stretched.Let us illustrate. If you compare the above arithmetic chart, from exactly ten years ago with the logarithmic one below, you will find a vast difference in how one can interpret price movement at first glance. Looking at a larger time segment with vast price movement the arithmetic representation “swallows” data through compression. What is interpreted as insignificant noise (to the very left of the chart) in the arithmetic chart, with a two-year sideways segment, becomes significant in the logarithmic chart where one can see much more clearly that we had a major downtrend of a 32% price drop.  Silver, Monthly Chart, Logarithmic, Silver, you got to know how!Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Secondly, the logarithmic representation shows much more clearly that from this price drop low at US$4.05 a clear uptrend established. This with two major up legs advancing to US$49.83, representing a 1,130% gain.Silver, Monthly Chart. Starting the year with a large time frame overview:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Why a correct representation like this is significant becomes obvious when looking at the present time. The recent directional advancement of Silver prices is birthed out of a previous 34% drop. This is even more significant if you include the quick washout, represented by the down wick, which accounts for a 45% drop. Prices have more than doubled since those lows. Enough reason to look in the past of Silver price behavior at the beginning of possible longer trends. Without the use of a logarithmic presentation, one might have not ever noticed a possible similarity.In short, it is essential once looking at larger time stretches on larger time frame charts to consider the use of a logarithmic representation. Otherwise, you might lose analysis opportunity through chart compression.Technology marketing tries to sell us all sorts of gadgets blinding us to believe that technological toys empower a better trading result. Wrong! Do not get lured into trading on the fly from your cell phone while driving. Trading is like a competitive sport. You do not win a gold medal at the Olympics while texting your buddies. If you want to win the game of market participation you need to dedicate your time in a quiet space with appropriate tools.Silver, you got to know how!Execution requires a maximum reduced data density to keep some powder dry for mental capacity in case of surprises, distractions, and other abnormalities to not get into a stress-induced reactionary intuitive field but rather stay focused. Only an anticipatory rule-based execution in this counterintuitive environment leads to success. This principle demands a chart representation as quiet as possible to keep data overloads at a minimum. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

The Gold Market in 2020 and Beyond

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.01.2021 17:48
Was the past year good for the yellow metal? What happened in 2020 and what will 2021 be like for the gold market?Nobody the Spanish Inquisition! And nobody expected a pandemic in 2020! Oh boy, what a year… How good that 2020 has already passed! It was an extraordinary year, unlike any other in many decades. Unfortunately, 2020 was a disastrous time for many people all over the world who suffered from COVID-19 or whose relatives and friends died because of the coronavirus or the collapse of the healthcare system… Our thoughts are with them. Many others lost their jobs or income, and all of us suffered from loneliness and limited freedom during the Great Lockdown . Indeed, it’s good that 2020 is over – and we hope that 2021 will be much better!And what did 2020 mean for gold? Well, it turned out that last year was gracious to the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, gold entered 2020 with a price of $1,515 per ounce, and finished the year at $1,888 (London P.M. Fix as of December 30). It means that the shiny metal rose over 24 percent – that’s not bad considering other assets were hit really hard during the economic crisis !Actually, 2020 was definitely better for gold prices than 2019 , when the yellow metal gained “only” over 18 percent. As I didn’t predict the global pandemic (who did?), I didn’t forecast such strong gains in my base scenario. However, given the inversion of the yield curve in 2019, I expected a kind of economic downturn that would positively impact gold prices. One year ago, in a January 2020 edition of the Gold Market Overview , I wrote:unless anything ugly happens, the macroeconomic environment could be less supportive for gold than in 2019. However, bad things do happen, and, according to Murphy’s law, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Hence, the gold fundamentals may turn out to be more positive for gold over the year. After all, the yield curve has inverted last year and we are already observing some recessionary trends, especially in the manufacturing sector and among the small-sized companies (…) given the amount of black swans flying just above the market surface, gold might provide us with some bullish surprises as well.And indeed, the black swan (or perhaps a white or gray swan) landed in 2020, pleasing the gold bulls. However, despite gold’s impressive performance, some people complain that gold didn’t rally more during the coronavirus turmoil. I completely understand this disappointment – after all, the world suffered its deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression , larger even than the Great Recession , and gold gained only 24.6 percent?However, the crisis was deep but very short, as we quickly learnt how to live with the virus, while our brilliant scientists swiftly developed vaccines. Moreover, this time banks were resilient and there was no financial crisis . Another factor is that gold actually rallied more than 36 percent until its peak in August (or more than 40 percent counting from the bottom), but it later corrected somewhat.Indeed, we can distinguish a few phases in the gold market in 2020:A pre-pandemic bullish phase caused by easy monetary policy and worries about the coronavirus, that lasted until mid-February, with the price of gold increasing from $1,515 to $1,604 (5.9 percent) on February 19, just before the stock market crash.The bullish period (with a short bearish correction) more closely related to the unfolding pandemic, the stock market crash and central banks’ panic and bold responses. It started on February 20 and ended on March 6, when the price of gold reached $1,684 (gaining 5 percent).The bearish phase caused by investors’ panic selloff of all assets in order to raise cash. It lasted until March 19, when the price of gold reached its 2020 bottom of $1,474 (a decline of 12.5 percent).A super bullish phase that lasted until August 6, when the price of gold reached its all-time peak of $2,067, soaring 40.2 percent in just four and half months. This period can be split into: the bullish phase, caused by the coronavirus shock, that lasted until mid-April; the consolidation period, that came when the financial markets calmed down as the initial doomsday scenarios didn’t materialize, and lasted from mid-April to mid-June; and another bullish phase, caused by disastrous economic data for the first half of 2020, and massive stimulus programs delivered by the central banks and governments.The bearish period , during which the yellow metal declined to $1,763 on the last day of November, or 14.7 percent, due to positive vaccine-related news and reduced geopolitical uncertainty after the U.S. presidential elections.The bullish remainder of the year, during which gold rose to $1,888, or 7 percent, caused by the dark COVID-19 winter, poor economic data, strengthened prospects of another government financial stimulus, and related worries about the rising U.S. debt.So, it’s pretty obvious that the course of the pandemic was one of the most important tailwinds for the gold prices in 2020. Thus, the correction caused by the vaccine breakthroughs is not surprising, given the scale of the previous rally . However, please note that gold reacted not to the pandemic itself, but rather to the investors, governments, and central banks’ reaction to it. The yellow metal gained the most when investors were fearful, and when the Fed and Treasury injected liquidity into the markets.This all bodes well for gold in 2021. After all, the U.S. central bank won’t cease conducting its very easy monetary policy , while a Biden-Yellen duo will continue the dovish fiscal policy inherited from the Trump administration. Such a policy mix should support gold prices. Of course, the scale of accommodation would be lower than in 2020, so gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year. But unless we see a normalization in the monetary policy and an increase in the real interest rates , the bull market in gold shouldn’t end.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

USD grinds higher despite poor payrolls report

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.01.2021 09:16
Euro Falls For A Second Consecutive SessionThe euro currency was down over 0.41% into Friday’s close, marking the second session of consecutive declines. The drop comes after the euro touched highs of 1.2284 on Wednesday last week.While it is too early to call for a correction, the current drop remains consistent with the overall view. The EURUSD has been in a strong uptrend with little to no major corrections.For the moment, the line in the sand comes in at the 1.2177 level of support. If the euro loses this handle, then we expect to see a move to the 1.2050 level of support next.While this could weaken the upside bias, there is still scope for a rebound. But a close below 1.2050 will no doubt accelerate the declines to 1.1900 next.GBPUSD Closes Flat As Consolidation ContinuesThe British pound sterling is seen trading flat as the consolidation near the top end of the rally continues.The cable has been in a strong volatile ride since late last year due to the Brexit trade talks. This has pushed the currency to test highs above 1.3650.However, following the gains, price has been trading rather flat. On the short term charts, we see the consistent lower highs forming.This could result in the descending triangle pattern likely to emerge. If the GBPUSD closes below the 1.3500 level of support, then we expect to see further declines lower.The cable will most likely move back within the sideways range of 1.3500 and 1.3150 levels.Crude Oil Rises To A Nine-Month HighOil prices continue to push higher with prices settling near 52.60 last Friday. It marks the highest levels since February.The gains also come with nine weekly consecutive gains so far. With price action cutting past the trendline from below, we expect to see a continuation higher.But if price action retraces the gains, then a correction back to the 49.00 level is quite possible. Establishing support at this level will continue to see the bullish bias intact.The next key level to the upside will come near the 55.00 level which marks a major support/resistance level back in late 2019/early 2020.Gold Prices Push Past 1850The precious metal continues to post strong declines. On Friday, the commodity lost over 3% into the close to settle at 1847.Prices are now trading near a three-week low. The weekly bearish price action candlestick is also likely to signal a continuation lower.The next key level of support comes near the 1817 level. If gold prices lose this handle, then we might get to see a stronger decline.The next main support level will be found near the 1671 level and would potentially mark a strong retracement after testing new all-time highs just a few months ago.
Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands

Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.01.2021 12:11
Jesse Livermore said: “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.” Easier said than done. We are wired to take quick small profits and find it as such extremely difficult to sit through lengthy-time periods to ensure larger profits should a trade develop into a sustainable trend.While trailing stops most often fail being set too tight motivated again by the fear of losing one’s gains, one solution is our quad exit method that we use in our free telegram channel in which we post-trade entries and exits in real-time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Taking profits into the extended move:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 9th, 2021Here is an example of the application of this psychological and money management tool. We entered a long trade on April 15th last year at US$6,726. Shortly thereafter, we took partial profits to erase risk at US$6,993 and locked in some more profits at US$7,248. This did not just provide for solid trade results. Most of all it satisfied the psychological hunger to now be able to sustain the idea of “sitting on one’s hands”. With a preset like this, we were able to let the remaining position size of twenty-five percent, fittingly named “the runner”, do its thing. We exited the trade last week on 1/9/2021 at US$40,729 (a 506% profit). An exhaustion move with a confirmed counter directional signal on a larger time frame warranted to do so. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Ten runners still on the move:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 9th, 2021 bStill, we would be in trouble without another additional methodology in play. We call these reloads. Far from a typical form of a high-risk methodology of pyramiding, this way of adding an individual low-risk trade allows for ending up with multiple runners should a trend develop as it has over the last three quarters in Bitcoin.With this methodology, there is no need to pick tops and bottoms. Surviving runners extend into building a large position size. In the same way, partial profit-taking of such a position through closing out trades, meaning reducing overall position size is possible. Useful if possible trend exhaustion, distribution zones, or otherwise target zones establish themselves throughout the upward move.The weekly chart above shows with yellow arrows entry points of trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel where we still have the runner portion exposed to the market. It is this combination of tools we apply that allows us to be left with choices. This in regard to additional entries and various partial profit taking points. It allows us to let a good portion ride while sitting on our hands.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 10th, 2021 cNow that the cat is out of the bag and mass media has pointed out Bitcoin´s staggering gains last week, professionals typically fade the money coming in from amateurs stimulated by the hype. But not so fast. Are we seeing Bitcoin’s typical extreme retracement? In the weekly chart above we have identified four (A to D) major retracement support zones.All-time new highs from 2017, retested in November last year near US$19,888 (D).The most dominant supply zone marked by a “POC” of the 4th leg up volume analysis near $23,512 (C).Fibonacci retracement 0.618 with price zone near US$27,392 (B).Fibonacci retracement 0.786 with price zone near US$33,945 (A)Yes, we had a four-leg move up from US$3,782 and we are extended without a doubt, but who says we won’t find ourselves in a few years at levels tenfold from here. Livermore was right in his approach of sitting on one’s hands. Luckily our approach takes the worry and guesswork out of these debates. We let the runners run. Should we see a deep retracement we get additional low-risk entries with their runners possibly surviving as well. And yes, if you are relying on an, in part, income-producing system this is certainly a spot right here to take partial profits off the sum of your runners. What is not wise is to tighten stops here or typically place them somewhere where they are emotionally comfortable in the middle and have the typical experience that they just get nicked out before prices advance further again.Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s handsJesse Livermore also said: “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.” With the above-described methodology, one doesn’t need to. This self-regulatory system allows taking the agony of being right, the need for perfect timing, and most of all the hardship of not letting the cash register ring out of the equation. Livermore also stated: “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon”. We find that the illustrated approach is one way to circumvent the difficulties of participating in a steep trend without its typical pitfalls. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

What Underperforms Gold and Heralds More Declines?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.01.2021 17:03
With the gold miners underperforming gold, and gold underperforming the USDX, it was only a matter of time before the house of cards came crashing down.The writing has been on the wall all along with signs for all to see. On Jan. 5, I warned that the GDX was approaching an inflection point in the following way:The GDX ETF managed to rally above its 50-day moving average – just as it did at its November top. Moreover, please take note of the spike in volume that we saw yesterday. There were very few cases when we saw something similar in the previous months, which was at the November high and at the July high, right before the final 2020 top. The implications are bearish.And despite Friday’s (Jan. 8) 4.82% sell-off, the GDX’s last hurrah is likely to end with even more fireworks.Please see the chart below:Figure 1 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), GDX and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart Comparison – 2020With technicals foretelling the decline, many bullion bulls closed their eyes to the plethora of warnings signs that you can find in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alerts.For example:A huge volume spike in the first session of 2021 was very similar to what we saw at the November 2020 and July 2020 tops – this heralded declines.The GDX’s stochastic oscillator bounced above 80, mirroring similar readings that preceded five pullbacks since September.Arguably the most important indication that keeps on flashing the very bearish signals , the GDX’s underperformance relative to gold remained intact.In addition, the GDX is on the cusp of forming a head and shoulders pattern . If you analyze the chart above, the area on the left (marked S) represents the first shoulder, while the area in the middle (H) represents the head and the area on the right (second S) represents the potential second shoulder.Right now, $33.7-$34 is the do-or-die area. If the GDX breaks below this (where the right shoulder forms) it could trigger a decline back to the $24 to $23 range (measured by the spread between the head and the neckline; marked with green).Since there’s a significant support at about $31 in the form of the 50% retracement based on the 2020 rally, and the February 2020 high, it seems that we might see the miners pause there. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a pullback from these levels to about $33, which could serve as the verification of the completion of the head-and-shoulder pattern. This might take place at the same time, when gold corrects the decline to $1,700, but it’s too early to say with certainty.Also, let’s not forget that the GDX ETF has recently invalidated the breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2011 – 2016 decline.Figure 2 - GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (2009 – 2020)When GDX approached its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it declined sharply – it was right after the 2016 top. Are we seeing the 2020 top right now? This is quite possible – PMs are likely to decline after the sharp upswing, and since there is just more than one month left before the year ends, it might be the case that they move north of the recent highs only in 2021.Either way, miners’ inability to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and their invalidation of the tiny breakout is a bearish sign.The same goes for miners’ inability to stay above the rising support line – the line that’s parallel to the line based on the 2016 and 2020 lows.In summary, the GDX’s train has likely gone off the rails, with silver in the front car and gold in the back. And as the technical derailment unfolds, a resurgent U.S. dollar is likely to accelerate the impact. Furthermore, if the S&P 500 hops on board – and declines from its current state of euphoria – damage to the precious metals mining stocks could be particularly violent.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Revisiting Our October 23 Four Stocks To Own Article – Part I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 12.01.2021 03:28
Just before the US Elections, we authored an article related to four stocks/sectors that we thought would do well immediately after the November 2, 2020 elections.  The article highlighted how sector rotation in almost any market trend can assist traders in finding solid trading triggers.  We picked four stocks from various sectors for this example:AALAmerican AirlinesTravel/LeisureACBAurora CannabisCannabisGEGeneral ElectricIndustrial/Specialty IndustrySILJJunior Silver Miners ETFPrecious Metals MinersWhen you review my Yahoo! Finance article from October 23 and the November 6 follow up article related to these stock picks, you will quickly see that all of these stocks exhibited similar types of technical patterns.  They were all bottoming in an extended rounded bottom formation and had all started to near a Pennant/Flag Apex in price.  Additionally, many of them, with the exception of SILJ, had set up a very clear RSI technical divergence pattern over the course of setting up the extended bottom in price.My research team and I selected these stocks because of key expectations related to the post-election mentality of investors related to various sectors.  First, the cannabis sector had a number of new US states approve cannabis legislation – providing for an expected increase in business activity for the entire cannabis sector.  Second, no matter who won the election, another round of stimulus was likely to be approved resulting in increased economic opportunity for companies like GE and AAL.  The Travel and Leisure sector still had its risks as a surge in COVID cases could greatly disrupt future travel expectations.  Junior Silver Miners was our “hedge trade”.  If none of these other stocks started to rally, then Silver Miners would likely move 15% to 20%+ higher over time.We thought it would be a good time to check in with our picks to share the importance of using sector trends to your advantage.  Currently, there are dozens of sectors that are either in a solid bullish trend or are shifting into new bullish trends.  Being able to catch these setups early and having the confidence to act on these trends is very important. We highlighted some of these setups in our October 23 article, but they happen all the time in various market sectors.What is important is being able to see the setups, identify the sectors that have the strongest capability for future trends, then determining if you should trade the Sector ETF or some individual stocks within that sector.  Generally, the Sector ETFs provide enough liquidity and opportunity that you don't need to worry about the individual stocks.  Yet, sometimes, applying the same techniques to the strongest sector stocks can add a very valuable component to your trading.Below, we have highlighted the accomplishments of each stock symbol over the past 60+ days.  For this example, we will estimate a $20k allocation for ALL TRADES ($5k each) and use a simple 33% target allocation for Target 1, Target 2, and the Trailing Remainder.  That means, we take 33% of the position off at Targets 1 and 2, then let the remaining 33% trail with a protective stop.SymbolEntry PriceTarget 1 %Target 2 %Last Price %AAL$12.6039.81%NA22.44%ACB$4.68124.35%NA114.72%GE$7.6322.77%NA48.56%SILJ$14.68NANA10.11%Our $20k sample account would look something like this right now...SymbolEntry PriceTarget 1 $Target 2 $Last Price $AAL$12.60$656.87NA$6,408.61ACB$4.68$2,068.28NA$10,802.59GE$7.63$375.71NA$6,995.44SILJ$14.68NANA$5,505.50   Total =>$29,712.14Overall, this represents a +48.5% net account profit in just over 60 days by focusing on sector trends and rotations.  In the future, if any of our higher Target levels are reached, we'll pull another 33% of these trades and lock in these gains while we let the remaining position carry forward with a trailing stop.  The trailing stop should be based on the last completed target level reached.  For example, if Target 1 is reached, then the stop should be placed just below the Entry Price level.  If Target 2 is reached, then the stop should be placed just below the Target 1 level and it should begin to trail higher as new price highs are reached.Usually, we will pick an exit price level based on some type of trend failure or reversal point.  In most cases, this happens when the longer-term (Weekly based) moving averages change direction and price activity displays a clear technical pattern showing the bullish trend has ended.  Most traders are capable of determining their own exit points using technical indicators and other tools as they wish.  Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!When some sector is trending very strongly, we don't want to attempt to second guess the peak level or end of the trend.  We just want to ride that trend for as much profit as we can – unless some other sector sets up a new opportunity where we can better deploy our assets for profits. We like to let the trend work itself to an eventual end and use our Target Levels to lock in gains along the way.American Airlines TradeThe following Weekly chart of American Airlines (AAL) highlights the simple trade we suggested on October 23, 2020.  As you can see, the upward sloping lows in price aligned with the upward sloping RSI trend (in the lower pane).  AAL has reached our first target level (the MAGENTA line) and has recently settled near $15.13.  Our stop level should be just below our entry price level, near or below $12.60 at this time as we wait to see how the bullish trend continues.In Part II of this article, we'll go over the remaining three stock symbols we initially suggested on October 23, 2020 and highlight even more details related to sector trending.Many years ago I was researching Japanese Candlesticks and the teaching of Seiki Shimizu (The Japanese chart of charts: Shimiz) settled well with my thinking.  In his writing, he suggests that more than 60% of the time traders are waiting for new setups/trades.  This is something that many traders need to fully understand in order to balance aggressive trading tendencies with their abilities to create profits and protect assets.If this theory is correct, then trades only need to focus on the 30% to 40% of any 12-month span of time  (three to four months) where the bigger sector trends/trades setup and initiate.  Otherwise, these trends may continue, in some form, over the remainder of the time to generate profits (or not).  This type of thinking suggests that traders only need to focus on the best immediate setups in any market trends/sectors and ignore the “froth” in the markets on a day-to-day basis.  Doing so will allow most traders the freedom to create profits by taking skilled and effective entry triggers while being able to enjoy life, family, and other hobbies.  Trading does not need to be a full-time, 24/7 effort.  The global markets generate big sweeping sector trends sometimes 2 to 4 times a year as capital moves in and out of various trend cycles (short, intermediate, and long term).  All we have to do is find the best sectors to trade, then wait for the trigger/entry setup. Now, imagine what it would be like if you could accomplish something like this every week or month with technology? You can with my BAN Trader Pro strategy and Hotlist.BAN Trader Pro can help you identify and trade the Best Asset Now.  The BAN Hotlist helps us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to profit from sector rotation with my strategy. You can sign up here for my 100% educational webinar for free.Have a great week!
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Blue (Wave) Beats Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.01.2021 14:15
What a week! First gold soared to almost $1,960, but then its price (London P.M. Fix) plunged to $1,863 on January 8, as the chart below shows.This is quite strange (and bearish) behavior, given what happened last week. First, there were violent pro-Trump protests in Washington D.C. The rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol. During these riots, five people died. Given the chaos in the capital, gold, which is a safe-haven asset , should shine.Second, the December Employment Situation Report came out . It turned out that the nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 last month . The numbers fell short of expectations, as the pundits expected that the U.S. economy would add 50,000 jobs. The contraction in the nonfarm payrolls means that the winter wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S. labor market rather significantly.Third, despite the rollout of vaccinations (which is rather sluggish), the epidemic in the U.S. is taking its toll . The number of daily new cases of the coronavirus is above 250,000, the record high, as the chart above shows. So, we see the impact of the winter holidays showing up in the data.Rioting will also not help in limiting the spread of the coronavirus . Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths are also rising. The past week saw the first time the U.S. reporting more than 3,900 deaths in a single day, as the chart below shows.Lastly, both Democratic candidates won the runoffs in Georgia , which means that Democrats took control over the Senate. The unexpected blue wave raised expectations for higher taxes and larges fiscal deficits , which should be positive for gold.Implications for GoldThese factors should have been bullish for gold and they should have made the price of the yellow metal rally, but they weren’t and they didn’t. It seems that investors generally welcomed the blue wave and focused on a positive side of that development, or it might have been the case that the gold market was reacting to technical developments, not the fundamental ones. In any case, we can see the replay of the 2016 presidential election when everyone expected that Trump’s victory would be bad for the equity markets and positive for the precious metals market. But back then shares soared while gold plunged. We are currently witnessing something similar. Everyone thought that a blue wave would be the best scenario for gold, but the yellow metal dropped again.Why? Well, maybe it was just a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” phenomenon. Or maybe investors just don’t care about the long-term consequences of larger fiscal stimulus, such as rising public debt . Instead, they assumed that more government spending would accelerate GDP growth . This is why the real interest rates rose (see the chart below), which pushed the gold prices lower.Another issue is that when Trump didn’t support the riots, investors assumed that there will ultimately be a peaceful transition of power and started to sell safe-haven assets such as gold. With Democrats taking control of both the White House and the whole of Congress, investors increased their risk-appetite, which created downward pressure on gold prices.Moreover, the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting published last week indicate that further monetary easing is not likely in the very near future.However, sooner or later the Fed will have to step in. The worsening condition of the U.S. labor market and rising bond yields will prompt the central bank to provide further accommodation. After all, the main task of the central banks is to provide the governments with fiscal room. And at some point, investors will start to worry about the rising fiscal deficits and public debt.So, as long as the real interest rates are rising, gold will be in trouble . But at some point the rates should stabilize, or they could even decline again – especially if inflation emerges – which would help the gold prices.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

3 Price Drivers in a Globalized World

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.01.2021 16:02
Do you want to know how gold will be doing soon? Or the USDX? You have to look at the German and French economies. You may ask “What? How can they be tied together?” Well, the globalization of markets is one of the core foundations of the modern world. With everything interrelated, nothing in economics can be examined in a vacuum state. That includes the three precious metals price drivers: stocks, yields and currencies.The EUR/USD currency pair is a perfect example of this interconnectivity. Being the most popular and most traded currency pair in the world, the EUR/USD is influenced by many factors, including the price action in the USD Index as well as the strength of the European and American economies at any given time. The same level of interconnectedness can be applied to the other price drivers.Let’s take a fundamental look at stocks, yields and currencies.As you can see in our Correlation Matrix , the 30-trading-day correlation values are strongly negative in the case of all key parts of the precious metals market (gold, silver, senior miners, junior miners) and the USD Index, while they remain generally positive in case of the link with the stock market. Both links are most visible when we take the 250 trading days into account (effectively about 1 year).Figure 1The closer to -1 the number gets, the more negatively correlated given assets are, and the closer to 1 it gets, the stronger the positive correlation. Numbers close to zero imply no correlation.So, what do these markets tell us about future movements in the price of gold?Future HistoryYesterday , I highlighted the record excess that’s building up across U.S. equities. And as we approach the middle of January, investors are giving new meaning to Paul Engemann’s Push It to the Limit .Last week, the S&P 500’s option Gamma (21-day moving average) reached the top 0.37% of all-time readings. And on Monday (Jan. 11), the 10-day MA set a new record.Please see the chart below:Figure 2Keep in mind, Monday’s record was set on an absolute basis (by analyzing the number of outstanding options contracts). However, relative to the S&P 500’s market cap (which biases the reading lower as stocks move higher), it’s the fourth-highest since 2011. More importantly though, the last three times Gamma exposure reached the current level, the S&P 500 fell by 7.9%, 7.3% and 31.0% over the following two months (the vertical red lines above).From a valuation perspective, the derivatives frenzy has also helped push the NASDAQ (4.17x), S&P 500 (2.85x) and Russell 2000’s (1.49x) price-to-sales (P/S) ratios to their highest levels ever.Please see below:Figure 3 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Liz Ann Sonders)And a day after the milestones were set, U.S. small business confidence (the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index) fell to a seven-month low (Jan. 12).Figure 4 - (Source: Bloomberg/Daniel Lacalle)In addition, while economists expected a print of 100.2 (the red box on the left), the reading came in at 95.9 (the red box on the right), more than two points below the index’s historical average. Furthermore, nine out of 10 survey categories indicated that economic conditions are worse than they were in November.Figure 5As another wonder to marvel at, U.S. Treasury yields are also surging (which I’ve mentioned during previous editions). And because corporate profits are still on life support (due to the lack of real economic activity), the spread between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield just hit its lowest level in over two years.Please see below:Figure 6 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Lisa AbramowiczTo explain, the earnings yield is the inverse of the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (calculated as earnings divided by price). The percentage is often compared to the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury to gauge the relative value of stocks versus bonds. If you look at the middle of the chart, you can see that the spread between the two peaked at more than 6% in 2019 (as companies’ EPS rose and bond yields fell). However, with the opposite occurring today, the spread between the two has fallen below 2.23%.Thus, with bond yields beginning to breathe new life, Jerome Powell’s (Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve) argument that P/E multiples are “not as relevant” in a world of low interest rates is starting to lose its luster.EUR/USD Struggles with RealityDespite bouncing yesterday (as declines rarely happen linearly), the EUR/USD is still treading fundamental water.Over the last few weeks, I’ve been highlighting the increased economic divergence – as a weak U.S. economy is overshadowed only by an even-weaker Eurozone economy (Remember, currencies trade on a relative basis.)And as another data point of validation, yesterday, Bloomberg Economics reduced its first-quarter GDP forecast (for Europe) from a rise of 1.3% to a decline of 4.0%. Furthermore, the team also reduced their full-year GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 2.9%.Please see below:Figure 7If you analyze the red box, you can see the massive drop in economic activity that’s expected during the first three months of 2021. And even more pessimistic, Peter Vanden Houte, ING’s Chief Economist wrote (on Jan. 7) that he believes “it will take until the summer of 2023 for the Eurozone to regain its pre-crisis activity level.”Also plaguing Europe, please have a look at the sharp decline in the Eurozone household savings rate:Figure 8 – (Source: Refinitiv/ING)To explain, the huge spike in 2020 was a function of government programs to replace lost wages at the onset of the pandemic . However, as the crisis unfolded and the level of government spending became unsustainable, the household savings rate in Germany and France (Europe’s two largest economies) sunk like a stone.Moreover, with Eurozone retail sales plunging by 6.1% in November, and assuming the household savings rate followed suit, you can infer that households are allocating resources to necessities and not discretionary items that boost GDP.The bottom line?The European economy is underperforming the U.S. economy and the deluge of bad data is slowly chipping away at the euro. And as the fundamental damage continues, the EUR/USD should come under pressure and help propel the USD Index higher.As part of the fallout, gold will likely drop below its rising support line and then decline further. Once it bottoms, we’ll have a very attractive entry point to go long in the precious metals and mining stocks.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USD recovers from Tuesday's declines

USD recovers from Tuesday's declines

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.01.2021 08:55
Euro Pares Gains As USD Bounces BackThe euro currency is resuming its decline as the USD is making a rebound following the one-day slump on Tuesday. As a result, the euro currency formed a lower high above the 1.2200 level.With the Stochastics oscillator also signaling a bearish move, further declines are likely.Following the break down below Monday’s lows near 1.2138, the euro currency could post steeper declines. The next main target is seen near the 1.2050 level of support.To the upside, any rebound is likely to stall near the 1.2179 level. The downside bias changes only if the euro currency can rise above Wednesday’s highs of 1.2220.GBPUSD Pulls Back After Strong GainsThe British pound sterling is posting losses following the solid gains made from earlier in the week.After briefly rising close to 4th Jan highs near 1.3702, the cable gave back the gains intraday. This has led to a bearish close.For the moment, the bias still remains to the upside. Price action could potentially form a reversal near the trendline around the 1.3600 level.If price crashes through this level then we could see a move back to the 1.3500 handle.With the Stochastics oscillator also moving out from the overbought levels, the downside is likely to prevail in the near term.WTI Crude Oil Pulls Back From An Eleven-Month HighCrude oil prices are likely to signal a correction if the price action closes with a Doji.This comes after a steady patch of gains that pushed the commodity to an 11-month high. Given the strong pace of gains, prices are likely to make a short term correction.For the moment, the long term trend line continues to offer support. But if price loses this handle, then we expect to see a move lower.The support level near 49.00 remains within reach. The Stochastics oscillator is also moving out from the overbought levels at the moment, adding to the downside bias.Gold Prices Continue To Consolidate Into A Bearish PatternPrice action in the precious metal remains mixed. In the medium-term outlook, the current consolidation near the 1850 level is likely to signal a bearish flag pattern.But price action needs to post a strong close below the 1850 level to validate this pattern.The Stochastics oscillator remains currently in the overbought level, keeping the bias somewhat mixed.To the upside, a move from the 1850 level could see prices attempting to retest the 1911.50 level where resistance could once again form.But if prices break down lower, then we could see a strong correction taking place.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Higher Yields Hit Gold, But for How Long?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.01.2021 14:38
The price of gold remains at $1,850, and the key drivers are higher bond yields and a stronger risk appetite.Last week, the yellow metal tanked below $1,900 again, and it hasn’t rebounded since the plunge – instead, the price of gold has stayed at around $1,850.What happened? The main driver of the recent weakness in the precious metals market has been the Democratic victory in the Georgia Senate elections. Thanks to this trifecta, the Democrats have taken control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. Consequently, there are lower chances of a political gridlock in Washington and higher chances of smooth cooperation between Congress and the incoming administration of Joe Biden. So, the expectations of additional economic support have risen, thereby strengthening hopes for a quicker economic recovery.Hence, investors went euphoric and increased their risk appetite. They sold safe havens such as gold and disposed of treasuries, pushing the bond yields higher (see the chart below), which in turn hurt the yellow metal .However, the interest rates are still historically low, and the real interest rates remain deeply in negative territory. Although some measure of normalization is standard, the return to pre-pandemic levels is unlikely . The unprecedented increase in worldwide debt implies that we are stuck in a high debt and low interest rate trap. After all, all these debts have been sustainable only because the yields have been low, so I doubt whether we will see an important rebound in them.But the recent episode shows how sensitive gold is to the changes in the real interest rates and that gold investors – as we wrote in the latest Gold Market Overview – shouldn’t forget about the possibility of an increase in the real interest rates, which is a serious downward risk for gold.Implications for GoldIs gold doomed now, given that the Democrats swept both the White House and Congress? Not necessarily. The macroeconomic outlook for 2021 might be worse than for 2020, as the economy should recover and monetary policy should be less dovish – but it’s still positive for gold. After all, historically, gold has shined during the early phases of various economic recoveries. Some analysts even claim that we have not reached the phase of an economic recovery yet – as the liquidity crisis has transformed into a solvency crisis.In other words, it’s always important to distinguish the short-term outlook from the longer-term potential. Gold currently suffers because of the higher yields, but the long-term picture seems to be more positive. The real interest rates, which are more important for the precious metals market, have increased to a lesser extent – and they have stayed well below zero (as the chart above shows).At some point, investors will start factoring in that a large fiscal stimulus projected by the Democrats could increase the public debt to uncomfortable levels, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis . They could also begin pricing in the risk of higher inflation and a larger Fed’s balance sheet , as the U.S. central bank and the Treasury wouldn’t welcome much higher interest rates . As a reminder, gold benefited from the easy fiscal policy in the aftermath of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic , so it shouldn’t go out of favor now. Indeed, the huge fiscal deficit combined with the current account deficit will take the so-called twin deficit to a record 25 percent of the GDP , which shouldn’t be without an impact on the price of gold.Instead, gold still has a material upside in the upcoming months, although it could shine less brightly than it did last year , at least until inflation rebounds, or until the Fed expands its accommodative monetary stance. Yes, the U.S. central bank remains dovish, but it’s not eager right now to shoot from its bazooka again. So, the monetary policy will be relatively more hawkish than it was in 2020, which could limit potential gains in the gold market.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.01.2021 19:07
Silver is trading sideways. Time to evaluate stops and targets. When the mind is overwhelmed due to data overload or too many variables in a probable outcome, it likes to simplify. In its extreme, it resorts to intuitive responses like fight-flight. What is overwhelm? In most cases, it is an emotional response to an unsolved problem. For trading, this means a data stream evaluation that accumulates to too many questions and results in a desire for simplicity. In the case of exits, most beginning and intermediate traders resort to a support and resistance stop. But that is a very simple way to get taken out of the market. Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops.It is foolish to find a rigid module like a line in the sand (a single price level) in a game with a high degree of variables. Variables that are in constant flux in a dynamic model. Driven by collective psychology, even irrational at times. It would be best if you had real likelihoods based on movement in price, volume and time (at a minimum).If you learn how to drive a car, the dynamics aren’t just pushing the various pedals at the appropriate time. After years of experience, you find the deciding value of surviving this game to be all surrounding factors. For example, slowing down when you see children playing near the street or in heavy rain on the freeway. You create more distance between the car in front of you if its driver is swerving and you suspect a drunk driver. You can feel if something is wrong, but it isn’t an intuitive response due to feeling overwhelmed. It is a subconscious filled with many rules that you have over time hip pocketed that in their sum alarm you to slow down or even stop.Silver, Daily Chart, Stacking Odds:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of January 13th, 2021.A traffic route needs readjustments in the event of a new force affecting traffic. Trading targets are affected by real-time factors, as well. Aspects like new data releases, momentum, volume, and price behavior as a whole. This, in alignment with the time component, weakens a static approach that tries to insist on a simple number of a support resistance price level. To get to a more accurate probability prediction, one needs first to widen a single target number to a target zone (A, B). A zone that is more in alignment with a distribution zone based on prior fractals.Most importantly, look at the way of how prices move towards such zones. An action-reaction principle comes into play if prices moved fast towards a distribution zone (C). In turn, this increases the likelihood of a bounce. On the other side of the spectrum, a slow directional creep of prices much more easily can penetrate a support/resistance price zone.  Silver, Weekly Chart, Exit Management:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 13th, 2021.Proper exit management requires a similar complex strategy mixed of experience and a clearly defined approach of targets versus a flawed system of a support and resistance trailing stop.In the weekly chart above, you can see an example of how targets and stop levels change throughout time. Directional support resistance lines update with each candle printing. Standard deviation bands, which work great for the Silver market, are moving along with price behavior. They also work as flexible target and stop levels.Silver, Monthly Chart, Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 14th, 2021.Right now, Silver is trading sideways. It is important to know when to get out with our established positions. We post those in real time in our free Telegram channel.Entries are exits, and exits are entries. In principle, your entry system can be applied for your partial profit-taking as well. It is futile to try to pick tops and bottoms; resorting to an inadequate support resistance approach isn’t a lucrative solution.You want to stack odds in your favor. Also, a core element is a multi exit approach. It provides choices widening one’s possibility to catch larger moves (see our quad exit strategy). Certainly, counter signals at the same time frame are an excellent way to take some profits off the table.When prices trade in regions that it has traded in before, you might consider tools like fractal analysis, linear regression channels (A), and fixed range volume analysis (B). These, amongst others, to identify high probability supply and demand distribution zones.Should prices trade at all-time highs, the main focus needs to be on momentum analysis, counter signals on the same and higher time frames as the entry and signal time frame, and tools like Fibonacci extensions. Volume analysis is a precious component to determine where it is wise to lighten up the load. Novices predict price level. For instance, an analysis where one expects a high probability in time when price changes direction, is more valuable in opposition to a fixed price zone.Target accuracy versus support and resistance stopsExits are the holy grail of trading. In alignment with risk control, they determine the level of profitability. For most, it is here where the rubber meets the road. Above all, exits are the deciding factor if a system is consistent (winning) or an endless string of losers. Here, an advanced system approach that takes many analysis factors into account brings actual value to your trading results.Targets are changing quite substantially through time. The market is in motion, and as such, forces in play need constant reevaluation to be genuinely accurate in their probabilities. Just like driving a car, you can’t just expect to reach your destination each time to work the same way. It would be best if you considered all factors. From the health of the driver to the mechanical condition of the car. From traffic and weather conditions to any unexpected influencing factors of each ride. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Sterling Rebounds As BoE Negative Rate Talk Fades

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.01.2021 09:12
USD steadies on prospects of new stimulus talksEURUSD Rebounds From A 4-Week LowThe euro currency is posting a modest rebound intraday after falling to a four week low earlier on Thursday.The rebound comes as the recent dollar gains take a pause, awaiting more news on the new stimulus talks.Price action in the euro remains currently below the 1.2177 level. Therefore, a continuation to the upside could see this level coming in as resistance.Only a strong breakout above this level could rekindle the upside bias. The Stochastics oscillator is currently signaling a bullish divergence in this aspect.Therefore, the price action near 1.2177 will be critical. To the downside, a continuation below current lows could see the 1.2050 level coming into the picture next.The British pound sterling is posting strong gains, recovering from the declines on Wednesday. The rebound comes following speculation that the Bank of England will not be considering negative interest rates.This has proven to be bullish for the cable which has made a strong rebound. Price action will now be testing Wednesday’s highs of 1.3701.A breakout above this level could post further price gains in the currency pair.To the downside, support is firmly established near 1.3624 which could hold against any pullbacks for the moment. The Stochastics oscillator is also likely to turn higher, adding to the bullish bias.Oil Prices Consolidate Near Highs As Bullish Momentum Slows WTI crude oil prices are trading flat having risen to highs of 53.90 intraday on Wednesday.The declines push the price action back below the rising trend line. This could potentially see the trend line being retested from below.The Stochastics oscillator is nearing the oversold levels and therefore could see a possible move higher once again.However, oil prices will need to break out above the recent highs to continue higher. The next key target will be the 55.00 level.To the downside, if the trendline acts as resistance, then a close below 52.20 is required.Only a strong daily close below this level will open the way for a correction toward the 49.00 handle.Gold Prices Continue To Remain Muted The precious metal is trading subdued, in anticipation of further news on the stimulus proposal from the new Biden administration.Price action is strongly consolidating near the 1850 handle for the moment. This could continue for a while before leading to a strong breakout.The bias also remains mixed at the moment. To the upside, gold prices need to post a strong breakout above the 1850 handle, which will open the way to the 1911 – 1900 resistance level next.To the downside, the 1817.80 level of support once again comes into the picture.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.01.2021 11:52
Hurray! The disastrous year of 2020, which brought about the COVID-19 pandemic , the Great Lockdown , and the economic crisis , is over! Now, the question is what will 2021 be like – both for the U.S. economy and the gold market.To provide an answer, below I analyze the most important economic trends for the next year and their implications for the yellow metal.Society gains herd immunity by vaccination and the health crisis is overcome.With herd immunity approaching, the social fabric returns to normality, and the economy recovers.The vaccine rollout increases the risk appetite, reducing the safe-haven demand for both gold and the greenback .The return to normality and realization of the pent-up demand (comeback of spending that was put on hold during the U.S. epidemic ) accelerates the CPI inflation rate .The Fed stays accommodative, but the recovery in the GDP growth and the labor market makes the U.S. monetary policy less aggressively dovish than in 2020.However, the Fed continues to use all of its tools to support the economy in 2021 and, in particular, it does not hike the federal funds rate , even if inflation rises.As a result, the real interest rates stay at ultra-low levels. However, the potential for further declines, similar in scale to 2020, is limited, unless inflation jumps.The American fiscal policy also remains easy, although relative to 2020, government spending declines, while the budget deficit narrows as a share of the GDP.However, the public debt burdens continue to rise. Although the ratio of debt to GDP decreased in Q3 2020 amid the rebound in the GDP, it’s likely to increase further in the future, especially if Congress approves the new fiscal stimulus.Given the dovish Fed conducting a zero-interest rate policy , increasing debt burden, and strengthened risk appetite amid the vaccine rollout, the U.S. dollar weakens further. The American currency has already lost more than 11 percent against a broad basket of other currencies since its March peak.What does this macroeconomic outlook imply for the gold prices? This is a great question, as some of the trends will be supportive for the yellow metal, while others might constitute headwinds, and some factors could theoretically be both positive and negative for the price of gold. For instance, the end of the recession seems to be bad for the yellow metal, but gold often shines during the very early phase of an economic recovery, especially if it is accompanied by reflation , i.e., a return of inflation.The tailwinds include the continuation of easy monetary and fiscal policies . The federal debt will remain high, while the interest rates will stay low, supporting the gold prices, as was the case in the past (see the chart below).There is also an upward risk of higher inflation. In such a macroeconomic environment, the U.S. dollar should weaken against other currencies, thus supporting gold prices . As a reminder, the relative strength of the greenback in recent years (see the chart below) limited the gains in the precious metals market.However, there are also headwinds . You see, levels are significantly different concepts than changes. The latter often matter more for the markets. What do I mean? Well, although both monetary and fiscal policies will remain accommodative, they will be less accommodative than in 2020. Although the real interest rates should stay very low, they will not decline as much as last year (if at all).In other words, the economy will normalize this year after suffering a deep downturn in 2020, so the economic policy will be less aggressive. Hence, the level of bond yields and the ratio of federal debt to GDP should stabilize somewhat – actually, thanks to the rebound in the GDP in the third quarter of 2020, the share of public indebtedness in the U.S. economy has decreased, as the chart below shows.Hence, although the price of gold could be supported by the continuation of easy monetary and fiscal policies, low real interest rates, and weak dollar, it’s potential to rally could be limited. The accommodative stance of central banks and unwillingness to normalize the monetary policy for the coming years should prevent a significant bear market in gold , but without any fresh triggers of further declines in the bond yields or without the spark of inflation, the great bull market is also not very likely. So, unless we either see a serious solvency crisis or sovereign debt crisis , or an substantial acceleration in inflation, gold may enter a sideways trend . Or it can actually go south, if it smells the normalization of monetary policy or increases in the interest rates.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Stocks Decline - Don’t get Caught

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.01.2021 17:09
This market reminds me of the days leading up to Christmas Eve 2018. For those who don’t remember, it was a pretty dark day for those trading in financial markets.I was in the office, alone, and felt particularly responsible for my clients that day. You see, since October of that year, markets had been in a tailspin lower.“Fundamentals look good, add some exposure to equities here” I found myself saying, more than once. And just when I thought I would get a break, have a half day in the markets, and take a couple days off - boom. Markets fell 2 to 3 percent on the day .I still remember the feeling, it was like a gut punch. We were unprepared and had added more equity exposure for most of our clients in the prior few weeks. My boss was furious, as I was responsible for allocating hundreds of millions of dollars and we were having our worst quarter ever. I vowed to never be caught unprepared and foolhardy about markets ever again after that quarter.It was a great lesson, and one that allowed me to flourish in 2020. While I did not foresee a global pandemic, back in January of 2020, things were looking eerily similar to 2018. Markets were frothy, and it appeared that no downside was possible. And I cut exposure for my family assets significantly.That allowed me to avoid the worst of the pullback, and in March, with an eye on the long run, I took my family assets and picked up several companies at mouth watering valuations, some we hadn’t seen in years.So far, so good. My old boss would have been pleased - not that it matters…And now? Well. We’re falling into the same song and dance lately, aren’t we. I have some tips below for those interested, and if you want to know how my personal portfolios have performed, slip into my DMs.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra high net worth. Hopefully, you’ll find the below enlightening from my perspective, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.Although stocks closed mildly lower on Thursday (Jan. 14), stocks have overall had a strong start to 2021.Be that as it may, I am still concerned about overheated valuations for stocks and the return of inflation. The S&P 500 is trading at its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, and the 10-year treasury is at its highest level since March. The Russell 2000 is also up over 37% from its 200-day moving average for the first time in its history.Overvalued stocks combined with inflation returning by mid-year is quite concerning for me. I feel that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely.I like how economist Mohammed El-Erian described the market as a “ rational bubble .” But he did caution against four major risks that could cause a downturn.The first two risks, and the least likely are the Fed pulling back on monetary stimulus and the potential for corporate bankruptcies. As Fed Chair Jay Powell said himself Thursday though, (Jan. 14) “be careful not to exit too early,”The last two risks could be riskier.The first is “some sort of market accident” akin to the dot-com bubble popping in 1999. THIS is what concerns me most right now. The IPO market is simply absurd right now. The DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) IPOs were ridiculous, and other IPOs are looking more and more like a circus. Lender Affirm went public on Wednesday (Jan. 13) and nearly doubled. Shares of Poshmark also surged more than 130% in its debut Thursday (Jan. 14).The other risk is the bond market and its effect on inflation. According to El-Erian, “If we were to see another 20 basis point move in yields, that would be bad news.”Despite my concerns, it is clear to me that investors are loving the potential for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package under President-elect Biden.Although a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news could continue, it seems to me that investors (for now) would just prefer to ride this out for what could be a strong second half of the year. According to CNBC’s Jim Cramer , there appears to be a lack of “people willing to sell”.Be that as it may, jobless claims surged to their highest levels since August, and the pandemic is still out of control. According to Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, U.S. stocks and bond markets could possibly “ take more of a breather ” in the near term.Generally, corrections are healthy, good for markets, and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because we haven’t seen a correction since March 2020, we could be well overdue.This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.The consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks. According to a CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000, while five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. I don’t think that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen.Hope everyone has a great day. Best of luck, and happy trading! S&P 500’s Valuation is its Highest in Years Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXConventional wisdom would tell you that the S&P had overheated and valuations are crazy. The index’s forward P/E ratio is the highest it’s been in two decades.But did you just see JP Morgan ’s (JPM) earnings report?Wow.The big bank crushed both top and bottom line estimates, and saw a net income growth of 42% from a year ago.But look deeper into the earnings call, and there are some things to worry about. JP Morgan reported a net benefit of $1.89 billion in credit reserves and is maintaining a reserve topping $30 billion.Why is this worrying? According to CEO Jamie Dimon, this is because of “significant near term uncertainty” due to the pandemic.Dimon further added that despite vaccine and stimulus-related optimism, JP Morgan is holding onto these reserves in order to “withstand an economic environment far worse than the current base forecast by most economists.”That’s a bit troubling.The S&P 500 has been trading in a streaky matter as of late and reflects the broader tug-of-war between good news and bad. The index seemingly goes on multiple day winning streaks and losing streaks on a weekly basis. After seeing its worst sell-off since October last Monday (Jan. 4), for example, it went on a four-day win streak and broke past 3800.We are now back below 3800. Although I always cheer stocks going up and hitting records, I want buying opportunities. I would like to see a drop to around 3600 or below before making a BUY call for the long-term.For now, my near-term outlook is murky. A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am calling the S&P a HOLD. I would like to see a sharp correction before initiating S&P exposure at a discount. There is clear upside for the second half of 2021, but I would just prefer to maximize the upside from a lower level.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Our Custom Valuations Index suggests Precious Metals will decline before their next attempt to rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.01.2021 22:50
My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields.  The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions.  Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector).  Let's explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.Weekly custom valuations index chartThe first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below.  The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020.  Gold also peaked at this very same time.  This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector.The peak in the Custom Valuations Index on March 20, 2020 (near the height of the COVID-19 market collapse) presented a very clear upside target which was confirmed with a second peak level in August 2020.  The fact that the Custom Valuations Index reached that peak level again and that peak level also aligned with the peak price in Gold may just be a coincidence.  As we continue to explore this unique alignment, we'll explore more unique characteristics to see if there is a link that is more than mere chance.There have been two very clear Pennant/Flag formations as you can see on the above weekly Custom Valuations Index chart.  The first one is highlighted in BLUE and the second one is highlighted in GREEN.  In both of these instances, the Custom Valuations Index broke lower and Gold followed this trend.  Currently, the Custom Valuations Index has begun to breakdown into a new bearish trend. This suggests that Gold and Silver may also move lower as this Custom Index attempts to find a bottom.Now, let's do a more in-depth analysis of Gold and the Custom Valuations Index.  In the following charts, we've attempted to highlight key price traits that took place in Gold over the past 9+ years and wanted to see if these key price points were reflected in the Custom Valuations Index chart.  The purpose of this is to identify if our assumption that the Custom Valuations Index chart is aligned to Gold (in some way) shows any additional (past price) alignment to validate our thinking.Weekly Gold chartFirst, we'll start with a Weekly Gold chart that highlights key price points, peaks, bottoms, and breakout/breakdown events.  We want to see if the Custom Valuations Index chart also aligned with these key price moves/dates.The following Gold Futures Weekly chart highlights the Appreciation/Depreciation cycles we've identified in earlier research as well.  The GREEN ARCs near the bottom of the chart show you where each cycle starts and stops.  The RED descending line represents a Depreciation Cycle and the GREEN Ascending line represents an Appreciation Cycle.  We are focusing on the September 2011 peak price in Gold and the key price events after the “Failure Peak” that took place to set up the bottom in early 2015, the rally in early 2016, and the breakout rally in June 2019.  Does the Custom Valuations Index chart show these same characteristics and dates?weekly customs valuation chart and gold price historyThis next chart is the Weekly Custom Valuations Index chart with the same highlighted price points/dates.  The first thing we see from this chart is that the “Failure Peak” (October 2012) was a higher price peak on this Custom Index chart than the setup on the Gold chart at the same time.  Thus, the Custom Valuations Chart represented the extended “excess phase” top in Gold as a continued upward trend.  The downtrend after the October 2012 peak on this Custom Valuations Index chart does align with the big breakdown on the Gold chart (above).Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!Additionally, the early 2015 bottoming on the Custom Index chart represented a very early sign that Gold may be looking for a bottom as well.  Gold did move lower throughout the next 11+ months, but so did the Custom Valuations Index price. It makes sense that the Custom Valuations Index may be representing underlying key market dynamics that could be applied to the Gold chart in some way.The Initial Gold Rally in February 2016 was the first real clear trigger on both these charts that coincided with a breakout/rally trend in Gold.  This rally attempt eventually stalled near the end of 2016 and began an extended “momentum base” setup.  Notice how the Custom Valuations Index chart represented this momentum base as and extended sideways Pennant/Flag formation that ended near June 2019.  Also, notice how the stalling in the Custom Valuations Index chart initiated many weeks before Gold actually peaked in 2016.From the February 2019 Breakout, we can clearly see the impressive rally in the Custom Index chart aligned with a big rally in Gold.  What is interesting is the DUAL PEAK in the Custom Index chart that first setup from the lows of the March 2020 COVID-19 bottom.  Could it be that extreme price move somehow represented a key future target for Gold and for the Custom Index chart? There is very little corresponding data to compare to – so we'll have to continue to try to dig deeper for any confirmation of this unique setup. Yet, we can't underestimate the DUAL PEAK setup on the Custom Index chart and the fact that the second peak, August 2020, also aligned perfectly with the current peak price in Gold. Since that August 2020 peak, both Gold and the Custom Index chart have continued to breakdown and trend lower.  It makes sense that Gold will continue to move lower, in alignment with the Custom Index chart, attempting to find a new bottom/momentum base.  We believe the 200 to 240 level on the Custom Valuations Index chart may be a suitable range for this new bottom.One thing we can say with a moderate degree of certainty is that the Custom Valuations Index chart appears to lead the precious metals in many instances and it appears to perfectly align in other instances.  Our research suggests the US and global markets have recently entered a Depreciation Cycle phase which may last many years.  The Custom Valuations Index chart is suggesting that the US, global and precious metals sectors are weakening and attempting to find/set up a new momentum/base. This would suggest that capital will move away from precious metals as well as major market sectors and attempt to find opportunities in undervalued or other hot sectors.  Eventually, once the new momentum base/bottom is firmly established in Gold and the Custom Valuations Index chart, the US and Global major market sectors will likely resume a very strong upside price trend.The key take-away from this research is that sector rotations related to precious metals, major global markets and potential early warning signs of strength or weakness may be attainable by focusing on how the Custom Valuations Index trends in comparison to Gold and the major indexes.  Currently, the Custom Valuations Index is suggesting that precious metals will move lower and try to find a new bottom/base.  This means other market sectors will perform better than precious metals for a period of time.This is also an important reason to focus your attention on finding the best and hottest sectors for new trade opportunities.  When broad components of the market enter bearish trends, like the Custom Valuations Index is suggesting for precious metals, it is best to have a proven system for identifying the best sector trends and trade opportunities.  While one sector may stall, others are rallying.  Long term success is found by focus your trading capital on the strongest opportunities while avoiding weaker trends.2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using my BAN strategy.  You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors right now in my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you. Those who want even more trades use my BAN Hotlist to make sure their trades are going with the momentum to maximize their odds of success.Don't miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months.  2021 and beyond are going to be incredible years for traders.  Staying ahead of these sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets.  As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher.  Learn how BAN Trader Pro can help you spot and trade the best trade setups while mitigating risks at every turn. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Please take a minute to visit my website to learn about our BAN Trader Pro and our other services and courses that are all designed to give you that edge you need to be a successful trader. Enjoy your weekend!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

USD rises to a three-week high despite weak retail sales

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.01.2021 08:46
Euro Inches Closer To 1.2050 The euro currency resumes the declines with prices now inching closer to the 1.2050 level of support.The declines come as the euro currency remains in a short term downtrend for the moment. This is evident from the lower highs that have been forming since prices retested the trendline from below on the 6th of January.The current declines to the 1.2050 could see a possible rebound taking place. This will most likely keep the EURUSD within a sideways range of 1.2177 and 1.2050.A break out from this range could possibly set the direction for the next leg.The stochastics oscillator is oversold and therefore coincides with the support level near 1.2050 likely to hold up in the short term.GBPUSD Double Top Pattern In Play The British pound Sterling has formed a double top pattern on the four-hour chart and prices broke down below this level on Friday.As a result, this bearish pattern could possibly see the cable likely to continue to push lower. The previous support level near 1.3506 will likely come in as the downside target.However, considering that the stochastics oscillator is also oversold but a possible rebound is likely to occur. This would see the GBPUSD pushing back to retest the 1.3611 level.Establishing resistance at this level could further validate the downside by his.However, if the cable manages to close above the 1.3611 level, then it would invalidate the double top pattern and as a result, we could possibly see either a consolidation or a possible move higher.Oil Prices Give Back Gains Crude oil prices were down close to 3% on Friday. This comes even as prices attempted to make a rebound earlier in the week on Thursday.However, this rebound led to a lower high emerging. Following this, prices gave back the gains on Friday and lost the support from the trend line as well.For the moment, the bias still remains to the upside. We need to wait for evidence to see a lower high forming in order to confirm the downside.For the moment, the lower target remains the support area near 49.00.In the short term, any rebound in prices could see the previous swing low near 52.30 playing a key role. If there is any rebound, then prices are likely to stall near this level.A strong close above 52.30 could potentially see another short term game in prices.Alternately, if we see a reversal near 52.30 or a continuation from the current levels, then we could expect the retracement towards 49.00.Gold Prices Hold Steady In A Sideways Range The precious metal was also trading weaker on Friday with prices down over 1%.However, price action remains subdued for the moment with the sideways range between 1850 and 1818 levels holding up for the moment.The lack of further bearish momentum is likely to see this possible consolidation resulting in either a strong retracement back to the upside. Alternatively, failure of support near 1818 could accelerate the decline.The stochastics oscillator currently remains well above the oversold levels thus indicating further room to the downside.However, the support level near 1818 is likely to hold up for the moment. As a result, gold prices are likely to continue trading in a sideways range for a while.To the upside, only a strong breakout above the 1850 level is likely to accelerate any gains that might come its way. The next key target will be the 1911.50 level of resistance.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Bitcoin, no exits necessary

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.01.2021 12:04
Well, maybe it isn’t quite that simple. If you want to have both, an income-producing approach and wealth preservation long-term investing strategy, you still need to take partial profits at times; you still need to use a tool like our quad exit. Generally speaking, though, you do not need to worry about exits regarding Bitcoin trading.While bitcoin is consistently exploring new all-time highs since 11/30/2020, many wonder how high will this go. It is even harder to predict good exit points when price enters the uncharted territory of new all-time highs. Wall Street gurus speak of sell points with various six, seven, and eight-figure numbers of all sorts. But isn’t it evident that if Bitcoin reaches these higher echelons, you do not want to sell it? Sell it for what? What would be more interesting to own than Bitcoin if it trades at US$700,000 or US$7,000,000 or US$7,000,000,000? All you want is just to own Bitcoin. It will be the currency that will purchase you whatever you need. Being limited at twenty-one million, Bitcoin is a scarce “digital commodity”.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Roadmap overview:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 18th, 2021The above chart shows in blue to the right in histogram style average volume traded on Bitcoin. We marked in green horizontal lines peak volume regions where bulls and bears had extended battles of buys and sells. Supply and distribution zones. The highest volume peak, called POC (point of control), is marked in a yellow horizontal line. Bitcoin prices will likely see much higher price levels than recent all-time highs, but we find a roadmap like this essential. A market crash in the stock market could temporarily drag Bitcoin along, but Bitcoin will recover with much vigor and quick speed. In such a scenario, these supply zones will provide an opportunity for reload entries to the runners which we are already holding as a core position. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Time cycle and Fibonacci projections:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 18th, 2021Bitcoin is consolidating right now, and we see a bottom to be established soon. Afterwards Bitcoin might be heading towards the recent highs, followed by a breakthrough again. The weekly chart above tries to keep the bigger picture in check. We stacked exit odds projections by using a time cycle instrument and a Fibonacci extension tool. We shared the target numbers of where we find partial profit-taking sensible over the next six years marked in red to the chart’s right. But let the runners (the last 25% of each initial position) run! No exits are necessary for those.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Real-time partial profit prediction zones:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 18th, 2021Zooming now into a smaller time frame, we are trying to illustrate on this daily chart how these volume measurement tools (available in almost all charting software packages) can also help to predict partial profit-taking zones. To the right, we plotted volume again, to the left mirrored green box zones show sensible profit taking zones should bitcoin prices retrace. After smart entry places those zones are needed to take some profit off the table.But that isn’t all. With a volume histogram open like this, you can see distribution zones establishing in real-time. Establish meaningfulness by comparing the volume peak levels with prior peaks. This volume analysis approach is advantageous when bitcoin should be extending in new all-time high territory again.Bitcoin, no exits necessaryAt Midas Touch, we advise our clients to hold a portion of their wealth in Bitcoin. We use the quad exit strategy as a risk reduction tool for entries. We do recommend taking partial profits if income-producing profit-taking fits your investment style. But in general, we are holding on to what we call runners, the last 25 % of a trading position, and while we have in any other commodity exit targets for those as well when it comes to Bitcoin, we just let them run add infinity.In other words, while one was thinking in the last hundred years of one’s wealth and profits measured in fiat currencies, it might be sensible to now instead think of one’s net worth in Bitcoin! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stocks Decline, More May be Coming

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.01.2021 22:15
We’ve reached a very critical juncture in the markets. Last week, I mentioned how this reminded me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ), and still maintain that there is way too much complacency in this market. Stock markets are risky for a reason, something many Robinhood traders are sure to find out this year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you’ll find the below enlightening from my perspective, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.Stocks closed the week with their first weekly declines in nearly a month.The pullbacks weren't anything astronomical, but it could potentially be the start of the Q1 declines that I have been predicting.For one, valuations are insane, and the tech IPO market is looking like clown school. The S&P 500 is trading near its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, while the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.Signs are starting to point towards the return of inflation by mid-year as well. As the 10-year yield ticked up to its highest level since March, economist Mohammed El-Erian said “if we were to see another 20 basis point move in yields, that would be bad news.”Expectations haven’t been this high for inflation in years either. According to Edward Jones , the 10-year breakeven rate hit its highest level since 2018 last week due to rising commodity prices, a weaker dollar, and broad stimulus policy. The 10-year breakeven rate is a market-based measure of inflation expectations.What’s also concerning is that investors didn’t seem to bat an eye at Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package !What does this tell me?That maybe this was anticipated and priced in already. According to Jim Cramer on his Mad Money show on CNBC, “When an event occurs and the market gets exactly what it wants, but nothing more, it’s treated as a reason to sell, not to buy.”Although this week's decline was moderate, I still feel that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely amidst a tug of war between good news and bad news.Generally, corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). The last time we saw one was in March 2020, so we could be well overdue.Corrections are healthy market behavior and could be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.I hope everyone has a great day. Best of luck, and happy trading! Time to Wager - Is the Dow Over/Under 31,000 Before the End of January?Figure 1- Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDUIs it possible to choose "push" on this gamble?I have too many short-term questions and concerns about the Dow Jones to unequivocally say it's overheated like the Russell or tech IPOs, or if it's at the right buying level.Although the Dow's RSI is comparable to the Nasdaq's on the surface, it has also not exceeded overbought levels as much.I do like the Dow's decline this week. But I'd like to see a more profound dip before buying back in.If someone wanted to make an over/under bet with me on the Dow's 31,000 level by the end of January, the truth is I'd probably choose "push." You'd have better luck betting on the AFC Championship game this year (but only if Mahomes plays).I don't like how COVID-19 is trending (who does?), I am disappointed in the vaccine roll-out (although it's improving), and I am concerned about short-term economic and political headwinds. But I think it's more likely than not that the Dow hovers around 31,000 by month's end rather than make any significant move upwards or downwards. It is very hard right now to make a conviction call on this index.If and when there is a drop in the index, it probably won't be anything like we saw back in March 2020.While a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index once vaccines are available to the general public.With so much uncertainty, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD. I am closely monitoring the RSI if it exceeds 70.For an ETF that looks to directly correlate with the Dow's performance, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBPUSD Trades Flat Above The 1.3050 Technical Support

GBPUSD Trades Flat Above The 1.3050 Technical Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.01.2021 09:12
USD rises to a one-month high as Yellen TestifiesEURUSD Reversing Just Off 1.2050 Technical Support The euro currency posted a steady decline as price action reversed just a few pips of the 1.2050 level of support. The declines come on the back of a strengthening US dollar.Speculation that the new Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen will not be pursuing a weaker dollar policy has pushed the greenback higher. This has led to the euro posting a steady decline over the week.Despite the rebound just above the 1.2050 level, the bias remains to the upside. Any gains are likely to stall near the 1.2177 level at best. A reversal near this level will confirm a further continuation lower.On the other hand, we could expect the EURUSD to firmly test the current support near 1.2050.The British pound sterling extended declines but managed to post a reversal above the 1.3050 level of technical support. The rebound comes as prices fell through the 1.3611 level of support late last week.The declines open the way for the cable to retest the support level near the 1.3506 region. However, at the current reversal, we could expect the cable to retest the 1.3611 level once again.Establishing resistance at this level will likely confirm further downside. But this could change if the GBPUSD manages to close back above the 1.3611 level.To the downside, the declines could stall near the 1.3506 level of support keeping prices to move in a sideways range.Oil Prices Attempt A Modest Rebound WTI crude oil prices posted a rebound following the declines from last week. Prices got a boost early on Monday following stronger GDP numbers out of China.However, the current retracement remains somewhat subdued. Unless we see a breakout above the previous highs of 53.74, we could expect a continuation lower.This will mark a correction in crude oil prices which has been in a steady trend for a while.The immediate downside target for oil prices is the 49.00 area. Establishing support there could potentially mark a correction into the longer-term uptrend that oil prices are in currently.Gold Rebounds Off 1817 Support Level The precious metal touched down below 1817 intraday to a one-month low. However, prices quickly reversed losses to rise above this technical support.For the moment, prices remain above the 1817 level and could see some upside. But only a close above the 1850 level can confirm this.In such an event, gold prices are likely to extend gains further. This will open the way for the precious metal to test the next key resistance level near 1911.50.To the downside, only a strong close below the 1817 level will confirm further downside in prices.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds are now available in Europe

Raph Antoine Raph Antoine 19.01.2021 09:35
Imagine, that your Dad or cousin didn’t invest in that pharma stock a while ago that initially surged, then stagnated and in the end underperformed the market.  Because most of them do. Now, he doesn’t even want to sell it anymore because of the emotional attachment. Imagine he didn’t have to think about when selling or buying. Or even rebalancing. He/she almost certainly isn’t following Banker on Wheels to realize that, as of December 2020, there is a new kid in town. Vanguard LifeStrategy is now available to European Investors! Your financial advisor may not like that, given the fees he’s charging, but who cares – the Golden Retriever Portfolio (with a little nuance) is now available in one UCITS ETF! WHAT IS VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY? It may not necessary be your cup of tea – I get it. Some investors like flexibility.  But learn more about these funds to make that comment during a (post Covid-19) family reunion when someone asks about the best investment. Whether it’s a bull or a bear market, it could save them lots of money.  And stress. If they ask about Bonds, tell them the Babushka doll includes that as well. The advantage of this investment is that it’s easy to explain, even a Golden Retriever gets it. [Read more]
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.01.2021 11:27
The price of gold has declined further amid incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus and poor economic data, which is a bearish sign.The weakness in the gold market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix declined below $1,840 last Friday (the price of the yellow metal later declined even further, i.e., below $1,830).The downward trend is a bit disturbing given the poor economic data reported last week. First, the jobless claims increased from 784,000 on January 2 to 965,000 on January 9, 2021 , as one can see in the chart below. This increase surpassed market expectations and indicates that there is a long way ahead for a full recovery in the U.S. labor market.Second, U.S. retail sales declined 0.7 percent in December from the previous month . Importantly, the decrease was larger than the expected 0.1 percent drop. Third, the Empire State Index increased 3.5 percent in January. Although the index grew, it rose at a slower pace than in December and below expectations.All these economic reports show that the U.S. economy has slowed down, and that we could see more stimulus coming in an effort to stimulate economic growth. Indeed, on Thursday, Jerome Powell excluded any tapering of the quantitative easing in the near future , saying that he “expect[s] that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time”. The recent weak economic data that show slack remaining in the labor market can only reassure the Fed that it should continue providing accommodation and not think about raising interest rates .Moreover, on Thursday (Jan. 14), Biden unveiled a massive stimulus plan worth $1.9 trillion to support the economy amid the COVID-19 epidemic . The aid package, that would be on top of the $900 billion stimulus adopted by Congress in December, includes $1 trillion in direct checks to Americans, about $440 billion for small businesses particularly strongly hit by the epidemic, and about $415 billion to fight the coronavirus and speed up the distribution of vaccinations.The continuation of the dovish monetary policy and expansion of the easy fiscal policy should theoretically send the price of gold higher.Implications for GoldThey should, but gold has gone south instead. Therefore, the drop in the price of gold amid poor economic data, Powell’s remarks, and Biden’s announcement is a bearish signal .However, it might be also the case that we will see a replay of March, when the first wave of the pandemic initially hit the precious metals market. Investors were stocking up cash then, selling both equities and gold. We observed a similar pattern on Friday, so we could see a reversal after some time.Moreover, Biden’s fiscal aid, if adopted, would increase U.S. government spending, budget deficit and public debt even further. As a reminder, the federal government spent a record $6.5 trillion in fiscal 2020, while the national debt has already risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s presidency. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s projection from early January, the U.S. fiscal deficit would total $2.3 trillion for fiscal 2021. However, with Biden’s new stimulus, it would be much larger and could even surpass the record deficit of $3.1 trillion for the last fiscal year.So, the ballooning fiscal deficits and debts, together with a recession caused by the pandemic and the Great Lockdown , should be sufficient reasons to be cautious and hold part of one’s investment portfolio in safe-haven assets such as gold . Yet many investors are still turning a blind eye to the negative effects of a fiscal stimulus. But just because they cover their eyes, the elephant will not disappear from the room. Indeed, the gold elephant – and gold bull , his cousin – will not disappear, although they may hide for a while .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.01.2021 15:52
Gold moved higher as the USD Index moved lower in today’s pre-market trading. Before providing you with my thoughts on why that happened and what the implications are, let’s see exactly what transpired.Figure 1 - USD IndexIn yesterday’s (Jan. 19) analysis , I commented on the above USD Index chart in the following way:The USD Index is after a major breakout above the declining resistance lines and this breakout was confirmed. Consequently, the USD Index is likely to rally, but is it likely to rally shortly? The answer to this question is being clarified at the moment of writing these words, because the USD Index moved back to its rising short-term support line that’s based on the 2021 bottoms.If the USD Index breaks below it, traders will view the 2021 rally as a zigzag corrective pattern and will probably sell the U.S. currency, causing it to decline, perhaps to the mid-January low or even triggering a re-test of the 2021 low.If the USD Index performs well at this time and rallies back up after touching the support line, and then moves to new yearly highs, it will be then that traders realize that it was definitely not just a zigzag correction, but actually the major bottom. In the previous scenario, they would also realize that, but later, after an additional short-term decline.The weak performance of mining stocks that we saw last week, and relatively strong performance of silver (up by 1.24%) compared to gold (up by 0.34%) in today’s pre-market trading suggest that PMs are very ready to slide right now. This – as markets are interconnected – might make the strength in the USD Index more likely than not. In this case, the second above-mentioned scenario would be realized, and the price moves that I’ve been describing for some time now, would gain momentum quickly.In either case, it seems that the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish for the short and medium-term. It is only the immediate and very short term that have any notable differences. Therefore, it seems to make sense to keep the short positions in the mining stocks intact.The USD Index moved lower, and at the moment of writing these words, its trading slightly below the rising support line. Is the more bearish (on a temporary basis) forecast for the USDX and more bullish forecast for gold being realized?Let’s take a look at gold.Figure 2 - COMEX Gold FuturesGold is rallying today, but overall, it remains in a back-and-forth consolidation pattern, which continues to be similar to what we saw in November after a very similar (yet smaller) sharp decline.Gold moved slightly above its September low in intraday terms, but not in terms of the closing prices.Figure 3 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Miners were barely affected yesterday. They moved slightly higher, but it seems to have been just a pause, similar to what we saw in mid-November – nothing more than that.Ok, so that’s what happened. Before stating that the USD’s breakdown and gold’s strength today are game changers for the very short term, let’s think about the possible explanation for these price moves. Is anything special happening today that makes today’s session at least a bit different than other sessions? Something that could be affecting the USD Index and gold?Of course, there is something like that! It’s the U.S. President’s inauguration day!In any case, such a day could affect the temporary market movement, but this year it’s particularly the case, because of the recent Washington D.C. riot and popular conviction that “something might happen” that would prevent the inauguration and effectively allow Donald Trump to remain the U.S. President.As I explained previously, I think that the probability for seeing the above is extremely low, but at this time, the markets and investors might be worried that this really is something that’s at least somewhat possible. If so, then the USD Index should be moving temporarily lower and gold – being a safe-haven asset – is likely to be moving higher. Of course, only temporarily, because it will soon become clear that the inauguration takes place without any major obstacles. There might be some local protests etc., but nothing that would change the situation in any meaningful manner. Consequently, this is most likely the day when the uncertainties and tension regarding the transfer of power in the U.S. start to decrease. At the same time, it’s likely that they will peak right before decreasing. Therefore, what we’re seeing in the USD Index and gold right now is perfectly understandable and natural. And likely temporary.This means that the breakdown in the USD Index could be invalidated soon – perhaps even tomorrow (or later today) and the opposite would be likely in the case of gold and silver’s strength. They might fade away quite quickly. Either way, the outlook remains bearish in my view.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Dollar muted as Joe Biden sworn in as president

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.01.2021 08:10
EURUSD Reverses Near 1.2144, Will It Push Lower? The euro currency is trading with some modest losses on Wednesday. The declines come after price action made a rebound just a few pips above the 1.2050 technical support.This rebound pushed prices to test their technical resistance level near 1.2144. Following this small rally, price action reversed gains.At the moment, prices remain stuck within the 1.2144 resistance and 1.2050 support. With the stochastics oscillator moving out from the overbought levels, we expect to see a retest back to the 1.2050 level, a bit more firmly.If the euro currency loses the support near 1.2050, then we expect a gradual decline towards the 1.1900 level next.To the upside, a close above the 1.2177 – 1.2144 level, will open the way to further gains.GBPUSD Briefly Rises Above 1.3700 But Fails To Hold The British pound sterling continued its bullish rally with prices briefly rising above the 1.3700 handle once again.However, the intraday gains were quickly scaled back as prices pulled back later in the day. As a result, the GBPUSD is currently trading within the sideways range of 1.3700 and 1.3611.The stochastics oscillator is currently overbought but is likely to head lower. This would mean that if the cable loses the support near 1.3611, then we expect to see price action falling back to the previous lows.This would open up the way towards 1.3506 level of technical support.In the medium-term outlook, we expect the GBPUSD to maintain a sideways range between 1.3700 and 1.3500.WTI Crude Oil Gains Lose Steam Near 53.77 WTI crude oil prices continue to hold a bullish front with price once again testing the 13th January and 15th January highs near 53.77.However, the strong pace of gains is showing signs of weakening. Price action has failed to make any significant highs beyond this level.The failure to close above 53.77 could potentially open the way for a move back lower. This would mean that the previous swing low formed near 51.85 is likely to be the short term support for the moment.If price action breaks down below this level of support, then we could expect to see further continuation lower.For the moment, given the bullish momentum in oil markets, we might see another attempt being made to the upside.In the event that crude oil prices close above 53.77, then it would open the way to further gains.Gold Prices Rise To An Eight-Day High The precious metal has managed to rise to an 8-day high following a close above the 1850 handle on an intraday basis.The Stochastics oscillator currently looks somewhat bullish with the possibility that the overbought conditions may persist.If price closes above 1850 on a daily basis, then we expect to see further gains. The next key technical resistance for gold is the 1911.50 level.In the near term, gold prices will need to establish support once again near the 1850 handle. Given that there has been a strong consolidation taking place near this technical support, there is a good chance that price action might continue to push higher.To the downside, a close below the 1850 handle will open up to the 1817.80 level of technical support.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

What's next for Bitcoin – $56k or $16k?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 21.01.2021 21:21
Bitcoin traders and enthusiasts are riding the wave after the incredible rally from $9,000 to $42,000 throughout Q4:2020.  It certainly was an incredible run – more than quadrupling in value in less than three months. Now we find ourselves in an early 2021 corrective phase which will end in either another Breakout/Rally attempt or an Excess Phase (Blow-off) Top.  This article highlights both potential outcomes because at this stage it is difficult to determine a single high-probability outcome.Before I continue, I urge readers to review our How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase article from November 27, 2020. You can re-read it here. This is an excellent primer for the content of this current research article.What A Bitcoin Breakout Would Look LikeLet's take a look at what a Breakout/Rally technical setup in Bitcoin would look like in the near future.  Looking at the chart below, price must hold above critical support near $27,800 as any new lower low would constitute a continuation of the Bearish downtrend.  Therefore, any renewed rally attempt would likely initiate from levels near $28k (or just below this level). Using a Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see the $46,280 (0.618) and the $56,190 (1.0) Fibonacci Extension levels are key potential upside price targets if a breakout/rally resumes.  We are measuring the most recent bottom, in late November, to the current high price level, then aligning the Fibonacci price extension bottom to the current price lows (near $30,260).  This allows us to see future potential price target levels if this rally/uptrend continues.Again, it is critical that the support level near $27,800 holds and price lows do not breach this level.  Any breach of this support level would constitute a “new lower low” in Fibonacci Price Theory – which suggests a downtrend is continuing.What A Bitcoin Breakdown Would Look LikeThe opposite aspect of this recent peak is that it may be setting up as an Excess Phase (blow-off) Top, as we can see the #1 (extreme rally) and #2 (sideways flag) setup in price recently.  The completed Excess Phase pattern consists of five total processes:The extreme upside price rallyThe TOP, followed by a moderate downside price trend that sets up the FLAGThe breakdown of the FLAG trend, which then targets a broader support levelThe breakdown of that support level, which then targets the ultimate bottom/momentum base levelOnce the ultimate bottom/base is established, then a new momentum/bottom begins and trend usually attempts another rally attempt.Be sure to sign up for my webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own FREE RIGTH NOW!Obviously, when you look at the Bitcoin to USD chart (below), it is fairly easy to identify the #1 and #2 setup of the Excess Phase Top.  The next question is will price breakdown and attempt to move below the $27,800 recent low support level or will it hold above this level, prompting another rally attempt.  If price breaks below the $27,800 support level (near recent lows on January 11, 2021), then we need to be very cautious of the broader Excess Phase Top process continuing and a continued breakdown resulting in lower price trends.  If the $27,800 support level holds, as we suggested in the Breakout/Rally example above, then there is a strong chance that $42k to $56k could be the next upside targets.I understand that readers and traders want to have more clarity on the direction Bitcoin will go, but ultimately, we need price to complete the next phase of this process. It all hinges on the current $27,800 support level right now.  As long as that support level holds, then there is a very strong possibility that another upside price rally will begin at some point in the future.  If it is broken and the Flag Breakdown continues, then it would appear the Excess Phase Top has moved into Phase #3 and will likely continue to unfold.Why wait for Bitcoin to begin a new trend – Stock sectors are movingEven though we will wait and see on Bitcoin, we see a wide variety of other sectors to play instead of holding out for the right Bitcoin trade. We have seen some explosive trading opportunities in sectoral ETFs despite the pullback in Bitcoin and other assets. One of our Best Asset Now Hotlist ETFs has grown by 23.55% since we identified its trigger a short 9 days. Some of our subscribers that traded options on that BAN Hotlist trigger did really, really well!If you love Cryptos or not, don't miss out on the opportunities that are setting up in the broader, global market and stock sector ETFs with our BAN strategy. If you want to improve your own trading strategy and win-rate, then you need to subscribe to BAN Trader Pro to get my daily BAN Hotlist, my pre-market video walkthrough of the charts every morning, and my BAN strategy trade alerts. Happy Trading!
New administration spurs risk on sentiment

New administration spurs risk on sentiment

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.01.2021 09:17
EURUSD Gains On A Weaker Dollar And ECB Meeting The euro currency made a rebound, led by a weaker greenback and the ECB meeting on Thursday.The central bank did not make any changes which saw the euro rising as a result. However, the gains were capped near the familiar resistance area between 1.2177 and 1.2144 levels.This has led to another bearish signal from the intraday Stochastics oscillator. As a result, if the euro fails to close above 1.2177, then a drop is likely.This opens the way for the common currency to test the lower support at 1.2050. However, the daily price action looks somewhat bullish at this point. Therefore, only a close above 1.2177 will confirm further gains.This potentially puts the 1.2050 level into the picture at the moment.GBPUSD On Track To Settle Above 1.3700 The British pound sterling continues to keep a bullish hold. After failing to break out above 1.3700 level, prices managed to do so on Thursday.With intraday gains pushing the GBPUSD somewhat higher, we expect the 1.3700 level to hold for the moment.This will potentially open the way for the currency pair to post further gains. The next key target will of course be the 1.3950 level which was briefly tested as support back in April 2018.However, the gains will continue only on a strong continuation to the upside.At the current levels near 1.3700, price action is testing the support from 2018 March. Therefore, with this level now likely to act as resistance, we could see a decline.WTI Crude Oil Settles Into A Sideways Range Crude oil prices trade mixed as the developments on the ground unfold. With the new President Biden being quick to rejoin the Paris climate accord, speculators expect further changes on fossil fuel.President Biden was quick to announce new curbs on the US oil industry. The current sideways range in the oil markets reflect this sentiment. Speculators remain on the sidelines for now in order to ascertain more data.As a result, WTI crude oil prices are likely to maintain a sideways range within 53.77 and 51.87 levels for the near term. Only a strong breakout from this range will set the next direction.The intraday Stochastics oscillator is also currently turning flat. To the downside, a close below 51.87 will open the way toward the 49.03 level of support.While to the upside, a close above 53.77 could see oil prices building up the bullish momentum.Gold Prices Trade Flat As Investors Weight Stimulus Prospects The precious metal is giving back some of the gains made on Wednesday, after rising to a nine-day high on an intraday basis, prices are pulling back.This comes as investors wait on further announcements from the new Biden administration. Speculation is high that the new Democrats government, which also now holds a thin majority in Senate could announce new stimulus measures.For the moment, price action in gold remains flat in anticipation of the news. The current pullback could see gold prices retesting the 1850 level.If strong support is established here, then we expect further gains. The 1911.50 level of resistance becomes the next upside target.If the 1850 handle is lost, then gold prices are likely to head lower. The 1817.80 level comes in as support.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Silver, one system isn’t enough

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.01.2021 11:53
When you start freshly entering the trading arena, it is fascinating that all it takes is pushing a button to be in a winning trade (or a losing one). The ease of participation isn’t the only unusual aspect of trading. In this week’s chartbook, we want to illuminate that many traders fail in assuming that one trading system is sufficient. If you, like many others, have after years of struggle finally established an edge, let’s say through a trend following system approach, you risk getting into serious trouble if a market transform into a multi-year sideways market. With only one screwdriver, it is hard to get a nail into the wall. Silver, one system isn’t enough.No matter if you use someone’s trading system or have developed your own, you need to identify its functionality, strengths, and weaknesses.Your system might be one that only provides entry timing. It could be one that requires for all trading signals the market produces to be taken in their entirety or otherwise mathematical expectancy skewed. You might find yourself using a system that, irrespectivly of market direction, trades price patterns in isolation.Silver, Weekly Chart, Silver, One system isn’t enough, Range trading:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 20th, 2021.The daily chart above shows a sideways range that can be traded both from the short and the long side by looking for support and resistance zones through fractal volume analysis (blue histogram) and then verifying it through an oscillator. Useable for identifying range extremes.We used a Commodity Channel Index oscillator (CCI) developed by Donald Lambert with settings 6/14.The very last setup shows a low risk bullish long entry where we find a good likelihood of a breakout through the upper bounds of the range.  Silver, Daily Chart, Trend trading:Silver in US Dollar, dayly chart as of January 20th, 2021.This daily chart shows a directional move that can be exploited by fading retracements in the trend direction. An indicator helps measure the development of a trend and specific reentry points as well. In this case, a Stochastic pair with settings: 5/3 and 21/10. Useful to identify overbought and oversold trading zones in a directional market. More precisely, you will find the interception points of the vertical lines to the left of the chart matching the low point of the fast settings line of the Stochastic pair. We call this indicator formation “loops,” which are a good additional tool to measure low-risk entry points within the trend.These readings will again come in useful should we break the sideways range. This we expect to be the case in Silver shortly.Silver, Weekly Chart, Silver, one system isn’t enough:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 20th, 2021. bStacking principle-based edges, in a way to identify the appropriate times when each system comes into play, is key as well. This weekly chart gives guidance for direction through linear regression lines. Clearly identifying a long-term trend in Silver (red, blue, green directional lines). Fractal volume analysis of the temporary range in Silver identifies the last weekly long entry to be low risk. We posted this entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel.The key is to know what you are trading. Each trading system has an Achilles heel, and it is essential to see that weakness. Eliminate these vulnerabilities by trading multiple systems. Still, the first step is to know where one needs to look for possible drawdowns. We aim to encourage examining your system in detail where its Achilles heel lays. Do this before the market chops out a leg right under you. Quantify your strategy from this perspective to realize that multiple systems are required. They are required for the various market cycles and market environments. Both on a shorter term and long term basis to not find yourself in a market cycle useless to your approach for a long time.Silver, one system isn’t enough:The benefit of a systematic trading approach is keeping emotions in check in a counterintuitive environment. Once established on a principle basis, it can be a handy tool to be applied to various markets and time frames. It is consequently allowing for flexibility and scalability. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Emerging Markets Stocks and ETFs for 2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.01.2021 16:41
There’s not a rigid definition of what an emerging market is. For example, China is still the leading country in many emerging market ETFs and funds. But is it fair to consider China an emerging market any longer? It has nearly 1.4 billion people and was the only major economy globally to see GDP growth in 2020.That’s like calling Giannis Antetokounmpo an up and coming superstar despite winning the last two NBA MVP awards.But even if I did see China as an emerging market, it wouldn’t be my top choice for 2021.If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know that I love emerging market exposure this year. The dollar is weakening and should continue to weaken with trillions more in stimulus and rising commodity prices.Meanwhile, emerging markets are perfectly positioned to exploit this and grow as a result.You also know that I’ve been talking about specific emerging markets like Taiwan, Thailand, and Russia.But in this special emerging markets newsletter , I will aim to further talk about what to look for when investing in a country, what other emerging markets to consider, and why I think they are set to outperform the US markets this year, after many years of underperformance.Why emerging markets?For several reasons!For one, did you know these facts about emerging markets? They have:-85% of the world population-77% of the land mass-63% of global commodities-59% of global GDP (using PPP)-12.5% of world’s market capConsider this for long-term investing too. Advanced economies are aging rapidly while emerging economies have youthful demographics.That’s why PWC believes that emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average.For emerging markets, this could be very advantageous in the coming decades.With American debt building up at an alarming rate, and the U.S. Dollar set for broader declines, this trend could begin sooner than we realize.U.S. investors also usually have >5% exposure to emerging markets, making this an even more untapped opportunity.Aren’t emerging markets risky?Of course, you have to consider political risk, credit risk, and economic risk for emerging markets.But did you see the U.S. Capitol two weeks ago? Have you noticed how its currency has performed since March? Figure 1- U.S. Dollar $USD Have you also seen the Fed’s balance sheet? Have you seen the S&P’s valuation and the tech IPO market?I would even argue that emerging markets could hedge against America’s political, economic, and currency risks right now. The pandemic only exacerbated this.Furthermore, if you look at the returns of the emerging markets I will discuss today: Taiwan (EWT), Russia (ERUS), Thailand (THD), Vietnam (VNM), South Korea (EWY), Indonesia (EIDO), Chile (ECH), and Peru (EPU), you will see that all have outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) since September. Figure 2-SPY, EWT, ERUS, THD, VNM, EWY, EIDO, ECH, EPU comparison chart- Sep. 1, 2020-Present Taiwan iShares ETF (EWT) Figure 3-iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) The Taiwan iShares ETF (EWT) has overheated more than the other emerging market ETFs based on its RSI that I will discuss. But if you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know I love Taiwan.Taiwan has also arguably been the best call I’ve made since starting these newsletters.I have been consistently calling Taiwan a better buy than China, despite China’s undeniable upside. Taiwan has the same sort of regional upside, without the same kind of geopolitical risks.Consider this too. Despite China’s robust economic response to COVID-19, retail sales still fell 3.9% over the full year, marking the first contraction since 1968. Lockdowns have also returned to China with a vengeance thanks to a new wave in COVID-19 infections.Ever since I called the EWT a buy on December 3rd, it has gained nearly 16% and outperformed the MSCI China ETF (MCHI) by approximately 3%.It has also outperformed the SPY S&P 500 ETF by nearly 11%.Taiwan also is unique for a developing country because of its stable fundamentals. It has low inflation, low unemployment, consistent trade surpluses, and high foreign reserves.It also has a diverse and modern hi-tech economy, especially in the semiconductor industry. With a diverse set of trade partners, Taiwan could only be scratching the surface of its potential.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold’s Mini-Rally

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.01.2021 16:49
Gold seems to be sleeping off its latest mini-rally and lacks the momentum to reach new highs. What happens from here? Has the USD bottomed? And what does it mean when we factor in the EUR/USD pair and poor economic indicators from Europe into the equation?Not much happened yesterday (Jan. 21), but what happened was relatively informative. And by “relatively” I mean literally just that. Gold moved lower yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading, doing so despite another small move lower in the USD Index. The moves are not big, but they are meaningful. They show that gold’s inauguration-day rally was likely a temporary blip on the radar screen instead of being a game-changer.Figure 1 – COMEX Gold FuturesLooking at the above gold chart, I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. Consequently, there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.Besides, there’s also a declining resistance line just around the corner.And that’s not even the most important thing. The most important thing is that based on the similarity to how things developed between 2011 and 2013, gold’s downward trajectory is likely to have periodic corrections at this time – up to a point where it simply plunges.Figure 2 - GOLD Continuous Contract (EOD)When the current situation is compared to what we saw about a decade ago, it shows what one should expect, assuming that the history repeats itself.Gold kept on declining with corrections along the way until April. In April, the decline accelerated profoundly. The biggest problem with the latter was that practically nobody expected this kind of volatility. Those who were thinking that it’s just another move lower that will be reversed were very surprised.Right now, you know in advance that a bigger move lower is likely just around the corner, and you won’t be surprised when it comes. Whether we have to wait an additional few days or first see gold rally by $10 or $30 is not that important, if it’s about to slide $150 and then another $200 or so.I would like to add that gold is declining today and based on the similarity to the November consolidation, it’s exactly the day when we should expect to see a decline. Of course, the similarity doesn’t have to persist, and the history doesn’t have to repeat itself to the letter, but what’s happening right now seems to be confirming the analogy in a considerable way. This means that more declines are likely just around the corner. If not immediately, then shortly.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver FuturesSilver turned south after reaching (approximately) the price level that stopped the rally in July and November 2020, and also earlier this year. This seems relatively natural and the outlook for silver remains bearish for the next several weeks.Silver corrected a bit more of this year’s downswing than gold, which is normal given the bearish outlook. The same goes for miners’ underperformance. Let’s keep in mind that silver’s “strength” is temporary – once the decline really starts, and it moves to its final part, silver is likely to catch up big time.Figure 4 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETFAs far as the miners are concerned, mining stocks didn’t correct half of their 2021 decline. They didn’t invalidate the breakdown below the rising support line, either. In fact, the GDX ETF closed yesterday’s session below the 50-day moving average. Technically, nothing changed yesterday.Please note that the November – today consolidation is quite similar to the consolidation that we saw between April and June (see Figure 4 - green rectangles). Both shoulders of the head-and-shoulder formation can be identical, but they don’t have to be, so it’s not that the current consolidation has to end at the right border of the current rectangle. However, the fact that the price is already close to this right border tells us that it would be very normal for the consolidation to end any day now – most likely before the end of January.If we see a rally to $37, or even $38, it won’t change much – the outlook will remain intact anyway and the right shoulder of the potential head-and-shoulders formation will remain similar to the left shoulder.However, does the GDX have to first rally to $37 or $38 to decline? Absolutely not. It could turn south right away, thus surprising most market participants.Figure 5 – USD IndexIn Tuesday’s (Jan. 19) analysis , I commented on the above USD Index chart in the following way:The USD Index is after a major breakout above the declining resistance lines and this breakout was confirmed. Consequently, the USD Index is likely to rally, but is it likely to rally shortly? The answer to this question is being clarified at the moment of writing these words, because the USD Index moved back to its rising short-term support line that’s based on the 2021 bottoms.If the USD Index breaks below it, traders will view the 2021 rally as a zigzag corrective pattern and will probably sell the U.S. currency, causing it to decline, perhaps to the mid-January low or even triggering a re-test of the 2021 low.If the USD Index performs well at this time and rallies back up after touching the support line, and then moves to new yearly highs, it will be then that traders realize that it was definitely not just a zigzag correction, but actually the major bottom. In the previous scenario, they would also realize that, but later, after an additional short-term decline.It’s now clear that the former scenario is being realized. The support levels that could trigger the USD’s reversal are based on the potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern – the red line that’s slightly above 90, and the horizontal line that’s slightly below it. It’s also possible that the USD Index tests it yearly lows. None of the above would be likely to change the outlook for the precious metals sector, at least not beyond the immediate term.Later yesterday (Jan. 21) and also in today’s overnight trading, the USD Index moved to the upper of the above-mentioned support lines. Is the bottom already in? This seems likely, but it’s not crystal-clear yet. However, it doesn’t really matter, because the precious metals market responded to the USD’s strength for just one day (in a meaningful way that is) and taking a closer look at that day reveals that it was not the USDX’s performance that gold reacted to, but to the underlying news – the inauguration-day-based uncertainty. So, even if the USD Index declines some more here before soaring, gold doesn’t have to move significantly higher. In fact, it would be unlikely to do so.Stocks have rallied, and based on this rally, the weekly RSI moved close to 70 once again.Figure 6 – S&P 500 IndexThis is important because the last two major declines were preceded by this very signal. We saw the double-top in the RSI at about 70, exactly when the stock market started its big declines, and we’re seeing the same thing right now. If this was the only thing pointing to much lower stock values on the horizon, I would say that the situation is not so critical, but that’s not the only thing – far from it. Before moving to these non-technical details, let’s recall why the stock market analysis and the USD index analysis matters for precious metals investors and traders.The analyses matter because gold, silver, and mining stocks are likely to decline in parallel with a decline in stocks and the USD’s rally. This is likely to take place up to a certain point, when precious metals show strength and refuse to decline further despite the stock market continuing to fall and the USDX continuing to rally. This kind of performance happened many times, including in the first half of last year.Since the S&P 500 futures are down in today’s overnight trading, perhaps we have indeed seen a top. Even if not, it doesn’t seem that one is very far away, based on how excessive the situation looks from the fundamental point of view. Let’s discuss some of those non-technical issues.Mind Over MatterDespite Janet Yellen’s recent assertion that “the United States does not seek a weaker currency,” her tongue-in-cheek comments are actually doing just that. The newly minted U.S. Treasury secretary urged lawmakers to “act big” with regard to prospective stimulus, saying that the benefits “far outweigh the costs.”And since her worst-kept secret became public on Jan. 18, the USD Index has been under fire ever since. Furthermore, as her words instill the EUR/USD with borrowed confidence, the precious metals are displaying the same bold behavior.Please see below:Figure 7However, despite the narrative overpowering reality, the Eurozone fundamentals don’t support the recent rally. And why is this important? Because as you can see from the chart above, as goes the EUR/USD, so go the PMs.Yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde revealed that the Eurozone economy likely shrank in the fourth quarter – all but sealing a double-dip recession.Please see below:Figure 8 – (Source: Bloomberg/ Holger Zschaepitz)In contrast, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting model (as of Jan. 21) has the U.S. economy expanding by 7.5% in Q4. Furthermore, even if we take the Atlanta Fed’s estimate with a grain of salt, the Blue Chip consensus (forecasts made by private-sector economists) is for growth of nearly 4.0% (tallied as of early January). And even more telling, economists with a bottom 10% Q4 GDP forecast ( see Figure 9 - the shaded light blue area below) still expect positive growth.Figure 9The bottom line?We can now add the Eurozone GDP to the long list of relative underperformances.Expanding on the above, European consumer confidence (released yesterday) went backwards again in January and is now less than 10 points above its April low. Furthermore, the current reading is still well-below the long-term average.Figure 10On Jan. 8, I highlighted the significant divergence between European CPI and U.S. CPI (inflation). For context, European CPI was – 0.30% in December (negative for five-straight months), while U.S. CPI was 0.40% in December (positive for seven-straight months).I wrote:Weak CPI is a precursor to a weaker euro. Why so? Because since asset purchases fail to produce any real economic growth, the ECB will be forced to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. As a result, the cocktail of paltry economic activity and lower bond yields leads to capital outflows as foreign (and domestic) investors reallocate money to other geographies (like the U.S.). Thus, capital will likely exit the Eurozone and lead to a lower EUR/USD.And today?Well, it’s exactly what the ECB is doing.Due to the economic malaise confronting Europe, the ECB is targeting its bond-buying activity toward financially weaker counties (like Italy) as opposed to financially stronger countries (like Germany). Essentially, it’s conducting a shadow operation of yield curve control (YCC).Please see below:Figure 11If you analyze the red box above, you can see that Europe’s weighted-average bond yield has increased in 2021. And why is this happening? Because as Europe’s economic deterioration merges with Italy’s fiscal plight, this cocktail has made European bonds riskier, and thus, investors demand a higher interest rate. And while higher interest rates are bullish for a country’s currency when they’re a function of economic growth, a crisis-like spike in yields (due to solvency concerns) means the exact opposite.Furthermore, if you follow the gray bars at the bottom-half of the chart, the ECB actually decreased its bond purchases toward the end of December (2020), Then, once January hit (2021), it was back to business as usual.As a result, the ECB’s attempt to scale back its asset purchases was (and will be) short-lived. And as the economic conditions worsen, the money printer will be working overtime for the foreseeable future.To that point, Bloomberg Economics expects the ECB to purchase €15 billion worth of bonds per week until 2022 – more than doubling its pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) to nearly €1.85 trillion.Please see below:Figure 12And in real-time?Well, the ECB’s balance sheet hit another record-high on Friday (Jan. 15) – with total holdings still at 69% of Eurozone GDP (nearly double the U.S. Fed’s 35%).Figure 13And why does all of this matter?Because, as I highlighted on Jan. 12, the ECB’s relative outprinting is a precursor to a lower EUR/USD.Figure 14I wrote:Turning to the second chart (Figure 6 - on the right), notice how the EUR/USD tracks the FED/ECB ratio? To explain, the ratio (the light blue line) is calculated by dividing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) balance sheet by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet. Essentially, its direction tells you which monetary authority is printing more money. If you analyze the EUR/USD (the dark blue line), it trades higher when the FED is out-printing the ECB (the light blue line is rising) and trades lower when the ECB is out-printing the FED (the light blue line is falling). The key takeaway? With the light blue line falling, it means that the ECB is outprinting the FED . And if this dynamic continues, the EUR/USD (the dark blue line) should move lower as well.The top in the FED/ECB total assets ratio preceded the slide in the EUR/USD less than a decade ago and it seems to be preceding the next slide as well. If the USD Index was to repeat its 2014-2015 rally from the recent lows, it would rally to 114. This level is much more realistic than most market participants would agree on.In conclusion, the EUR/USD’s recent strength is built on a foundation of sand. Instead of following the hard data, traders are letting the narrative cloud their judgment. Moreover, due to their strong correlation with the EUR/USD, gold and silver are falling into the same trap. However, once the semblance of strength evaporates, a decline in the EUR/USD is likely to usher a move lower for the PMs. Furthermore, with gold already approaching the upper trendline of its November consolidation channel, the momentum may wane sooner rather than later.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Recent triggers in these sectors suggest US Stock Markets may enter a rally phase

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 22.01.2021 21:30
Recently, our Best Asset Now (BAN) Hotlist generated a new trigger on the SPY chart.  Typically, this type of trigger suggests the SPY is starting a new, potentially explosive, upside price rally.  But what really interests us is the potential that the strongest sectoral ETFs may continue to see a much stronger upside price rally as a result of this new trigger.RECENT BAN SPY TREND TRIGGERThe strength of the BAN Hotlist is not the general market triggers it gives, such as the SPY, Dow Jones, or NASDAQ, but instead the ability to align these major market triggers with the strongest performing sectoral ETFs. This allows those using the Hotlist and BAN strategy to take advantage of the best-performing assets in the markets in any market trend.  The new SPY trigger, seen on the chart below, suggests the US stock markets may be starting a new upside price trend, which will cause capital to rotate into different sectors.  Our simple BAN Hotlist and strategy helps us identify these sectoral opportunities.QQQ GENERATES A SIMILAR TYPE OF BREAKOUT TRIGGERTraders love when ideas drawn from one chart is corroborated by other charts. As we can see from the chart below, the QQQ appears to have confirmed this BAN trigger with a similar type of upside price breakout. This upside move in the QQQ aligns with some of our recent research that suggested the Technology sector had stalled after having been one of the fastest-growing sectors for several months now.  We may start to see certain sub-sectors of technology really start to advance faster than the SPY/QQQ – which creates explosive opportunities for traders/investors.Recently, we published a research article suggesting a lower US Dollar would prompt major sector rotations in the US and global markets. Within that article, we highlighted the fact that the Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Discretionary sectors had been the hottest sectors of the past 180 days, but the Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials had shown the best strength over the past 90 days.  Technology had fallen/stalled dramatically over the past 90+ days.Overall, we believe the best performing sectors are likely to be sub-sectors of the SPY and QQQ. Potentially, certain components of the Technology, Health Care, Discretionary & Utility sectors.  Beyond that type of general analysis, we rely on the BAN Trader system to rank the “Best Assets Now” and tell us when new trade entry triggers are generated. It is very likely that this new SPY BAN trigger will prompt an extended upside price rally across a number of assets over the next few days/weeks.  Are you ready for these big market rotations expected in 2021?  Do you want to learn how BAN can help you find and trade the “Best Assets Now”? You too can also trade Best Assets Now with no proprietary indicator, scanners, or algorithms just by watching my FREE webinar. Not only will it show you a strategy you can implement tomorrow, but you will also receive over $100 worth of free goodies designed to make you an even better trader... no strings attached. Go ahead and watch the webinar now - click here to start! If you want to improve your own trading strategy and win-rate, then you need to subscribe to BAN Trader Pro to get my daily BAN Hotlist, my pre-market video walkthrough of the charts every morning, and my BAN strategy trade alerts.Happy Trading!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Technology & Energy Sectors Are Hot – Are You Missing Out?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.01.2021 21:22
We have seen some really big moves in various S&P sectors over the past 60+ days and these trends look like they may continue for a while.  Near the end of 2020, in October and November, the markets seemed to stall a bit before the US elections, but they have really started to trend much higher over the past 60+ days.  Technology and Energy seem to be leading the charge in some respects. The most important thing for traders is to find decent breakout trends in stocks and sectors that have a real potential for strong continued trending.  When we find these types of longer-term trends, we can scale in and out of the typical up/down price trends, over time, to generate some incredible returns.Technology Heating Up AgainThe move in the IXN Global Technology ETF charted below, looks like it is starting to accelerate higher.  It has already moved +17% over the past 60+ days, but there is a real potential that global investors are starting to pile back into technology ahead of the Q4:2020 earnings reports.  This may prove to be one of the hottest sectors in 2021 – so keep an eye on this new breakout rally.Energy and Exploration Setting Up For Another Move HigherOne of the biggest movers over the past few months has been the recovery of the Oil/Gas/Energy sector after quite a bit of sideways/lower price trending.  You can see from this XOP chart, below, a 44% upside price rally has taken place since early November, and XOP has recently rotated moderately downward – setting up another potential trade setup if this rally continues.  Traders know, the trend if your friend.  Another upside price swing in the XOP, above $72, would suggest this rally mode is continuing.Recently, we published a research article suggesting a lower US Dollar would prompt major sector rotations in the US and global markets where we highlighted the fact that the Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Discretionary sectors had been the hottest sectors of the past 180 days, but the Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials had shown the best strength over the past 90 days.  Technology, Healthcare, Financials, Energy, Consumer Products/Services, Foreign Markets have all been hot over the past 4+ months, but what is trending right now?  We believe the best performing sectors are likely to be sub-sectors of the SPY and QQQ. My research team and I believe Technology and Energy still have lots of room to run.  Financials could be a big winner too if the recent upside trend continues. We rely on the BAN Hotlist to rank the “Best Assets Now” and tell us when new trade entry triggers are generated.In short, 2021 is going to be an incredible year for BAN Trader subscribers because of the big trends, high volatility, stimulus, and policies with the Biden administration. The time is now to learn and trade the Best Assets Now Hotlist using our proven sector rotation strategy. Our BAN Trader Pro strategy is proving to be an incredible advancement that allows us to dominate and generate Alpha. We urge you to take advantage of the BAN Trader Pro technology and prepare for the big trends that we expect to continue throughout all of 2021 and into 2022 and beyond.I am teaching my BAN trading strategy in a 1-hour FREE webinar. The webinar is 100% educational and you will get everything you need to trade my powerful strategy on your own, with no proprietary trading tools or indicators, and with no strings attached. Learn this strategy now and join me in my webinar at https://joinnow.live/s/EPdGTI.Enjoy the rest of the weekend!Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategistwww.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

After Your Recent High - Where to Now, Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.01.2021 17:39
Gold is suffering a hang-over after it’s early January highs, while the EUR/USD pair is buckling - so when gold declines, where will its bottom be?After injecting itself with Janet Yellen’s stimulus sentiment, gold came down from its highs on Friday (Jan. 22).And like the GDX ETF, it’s important to put gold’s recent run into context. For starters, gold is still trading below its August declining resistance line, it topped at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point (which I warned about previously ) and the yellow metal remains well-off its January highs.Figure 1Looking at the chart below, we can see gold approaching the upper trendline of its November consolidation channel.Figure 2I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. I wrote about this previously (Jan. 21), saying that there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.And what happened last Friday?Well, gold fell by 0.52% as the Yellen -led intoxication began to wear off. Gold also continues to decline in today’s pre-market trading, despite a small move lower in the USD Index.Also adding to the upswing, one of the most popular gold indicators – the stochastic oscillator (see below) dipped below 20 last week. Itching to move off oversold levels, the yellow metal responded in kind. However, if you analyze the green arrows below (at the bottom of the chart), you can see that the first green arrow has a red arrow directly above it (marking gold’s November top).Currently, the stochastic oscillator is right near that level, and with November acting as a prelude, the yellow metal could suffer a similar swoon in the coming days or weeks.Figure 3 – Gold Continuous Contract Overview and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart ComparisonBack in November, gold’s second decline (second half of the month) was a bit bigger than the initial (first half of the month) slide that was much sharper. The January performance is very similar so far, with the difference being that this month, the initial decline that we saw in the early part of the month was bigger.This means that if the shape of the price moves continues to be similar, the next short-term move lower could be bigger than what we saw so far in January and bigger than the decline that we saw in the second half of November. This is yet another factor that points to the proximity of $1,700 as the next downside target.Moving on to cross-asset implications, Yellen’s dollar-negative comments tipped over a string of dominoes across the currency market. Ushering the EUR /USD higher, the boost added wind to the yellow metal’s sails.Figure 4And because the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USD Index, the currency pair is an extremely important piece of gold’s puzzle. However, beneath the surface, the euro is already starting to crack. After breaching critical support last week, Yellen’s comments basically saved the currency, as a rally in the EUR/USD was followed by a rally in the EUR/GBP.Figure 5However, with Eurozone fundamentals drastically underperforming the U.S. (and many other countries as well), a come-to-Jesus moment could be on the horizon.In summary, Friday’s detox – with the EUR/USD flat-lining and gold moving lower – could be a precursor to a rather messy withdrawal. Right now, the euro is hanging on for dear life, as technicals, fundamentals and cross-currency signals all point to a weaker euro. As a result, due to gold’s strong positive correlation with the EUR/USD, the yellow metal is unlikely to exit the battle unscathed.So, why is gold likely to bottom at roughly $1,700 (for the interim)?One of the reasons is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent 2020 rally, and the other is the 1.618 extension of the initial decline. However, there are also more long-term-oriented indications that gold is about to move to $1,700 and more likely, even lower.(…) gold recently failed to move above its previous long-term (2011) high. Since history tends to repeat itself, it’s only natural to expect gold to behave as it did during its previous attempt to break above its major long-term high.And the only similar case is from late 1978 when gold rallied above the previous 1974 high. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details (courtesy of chartsrus.com)Figure 6 - Gold rallying in 1978, past its 1974 highAs you can see above, in late 1978, gold declined severely right after it moved above the late-1974 high. This time, gold invalidated the breakout, which makes the subsequent decline more likely. And how far did gold decline back in 1978? It declined by about $50, which is about 20% of the starting price. If gold was to drop 20% from its 2020 high, it would slide from $2,089 to about $1,671 .This is in perfect tune with what we described previously as the downside target while describing gold’s long-term charts:Figure 7 - Relative Strength Index (RSI), GOLD, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ComparisonThe chart above shows exactly why the $1,700 level is even more likely to trigger a rebound in gold, at the very minimum.The $1,700 level is additionally confirmed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2015 – 2020 rally.There’s also a good possibility that gold could decline to the $1,500 - $1,600 area or so ( 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracements and the price level to which gold declined initially in 2011). In fact, based on the most recent developments in gold and the USDX (how low the latter fell without a rally in the former), it seems that $1,500 is more likely to be the final bottom than $1,700. The $1,700 level is likely to be a bottom – yes – but an interim one only.Before looking at the chart below (which is very similar to the chart above, but indicates different RSI, volume, etc.), please note the – rather obvious – fact: gold failed to break above its 2011 highs. Invalidations of breakouts are sell signals, and it’s tough to imagine a more profound breakout that could have failed. Thus, the implications are extremely bearish for the next several weeks and/or months.Figure 8 - RSI, GOLD, and MACD ComparisonThe odd thing about the above chart is that I copied the most recent movement in gold and pasted it above gold’s 2011 – 2013 performance. But – admit it – at first glance, it was clear to you that both price moves were very similar.And that’s exactly my point. The history tends to rhyme and that’s one of the foundations of the technical analysis in general. Retracements, indicators, cycles, and other techniques are used based on this very foundation – they are just different ways to approach the recurring nature of events.However, every now and then, the history repeats itself to a much greater degree than is normally the case. In extremely rare cases, we get a direct 1:1 similarity, but in some (still rare, but not as extremely rare) cases we get a similarity where the price is moving proportionately to how it moved previously. That’s called a market’s self-similarity or the fractal nature of the markets. But after taking a brief look at the chart, you probably instinctively knew that since the price moves are so similar this time, then the follow-up action is also likely to be quite similar.In other words, if something looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. And it’s likely to do what ducks do.What did gold do back in 2013 at the end of the self-similar pattern? Saying that it declined is true, but it doesn’t give the full picture - just like saying that the U.S. public debt is not small. Back then, gold truly plunged. And before it plunged, it moved lower in a rather steady manner, with periodic corrections. That’s exactly what we see right now.Please note that the above chart (Figure 8) shows gold’s very long-term turning points (vertical lines) and we see that gold topped a bit after it (not much off given their long-term nature). Based on how gold performed after previous long-term turning points (marked with purple, dashed lines), it seems that a decline to even $1,600 would not be out of ordinary.Finally, please note the strong sell signal from the MACD indicator in the bottom part of the chart. The only other time when this indicator flashed a sell signal while being so overbought was at the 2011 top. The second most-similar case is the 2008 top.The above-mentioned self-similarity covers the analogy to the 2011 top, but what about the 2008 performance?If we take a look at how big the final 2008 decline was, we notice that if gold repeated it (percentage-wise), it would decline to about $1,450. Interestingly, this would mean that gold would move to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire 2015 – 2020 rally. This is so interesting, because that’s the Fibonacci retracement level that (approximately) ended the 2013 decline.History tends to rhyme, so perhaps gold is going to decline even more than the simple analogy to the previous turning points indicates. For now, this is relatively unclear, and my target area for gold’s final bottom is quite broad.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Russell 2000 ETF Initiates New Rally Trend

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 26.01.2021 22:38
Last week my team and I alerted our readers to the current trends and shifting sectors that are getting hotter every day.  Technology, Energy, Financials, Industrials and others are experiencing bullish trends we haven't seen in years.  The Russell 2000 ETF, URTY, is starting a new breakout uptrend just after our BAN Trader Pro system suggested the SPY may initiate a new bullish rally.  You can read relevant research posts here: Recent triggers in these sectors suggest US Stock Markets may enter a rally phase and Technical Traders are using the BAN Hotlist triggers with huge success using regular ETFs, Leverage ETFs, and Options.As we can see in the chart below, the Russell 2000 has been one of the top performers since just after the November 2020 elections. Originating a breakout trigger on November 3, near $43.46, and confirming a “New High Breakout” on November 9, near $51.37, the Russell 200 sector has been rallying very strongly over the past 60+ days. The current “New Price High” breakout suggests this rally may continue.  Fibonacci price extensions show a peak may target levels near $125~$130 – nearly 20%+ higher than current prices.These sector trends that initiated in early November 2020 are a result of capital being deployed in sectors that are expected to benefit from new policies, Q4:2020 earnings, and renewed investor interest in 2021. Billions in capital have been redeployed into the markets with very high expectations.  This will result in big trends, increased volatility and even more opportunities for efficient traders. My Best Asset Now strategy that I teach to you for free helps you find these hot sectors and ride them out for explosive gains.The strength of this uptrend in URTY, breaking above the January 2020 highs, suggests any continued rally from this point may be reflective of the incredible -$80.34 collapse that took place as a result of COVID-19.  Using this range as a basis for future upside price expansion, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a $130 to $141 upside target level. If these levels are accurate, we may see another 25%+ upside move in the Russell 2000 ETF, URTY.With so much opportunity in ETFs and other stocks/sectors, it is important for traders to be able to identify the best setups, triggers and trends.  Our BAN Trader Pro newsletter service is designed to help you accomplish that with our easy to follow trade alerts and my daily pre-market report.  The daily BAN Hotlist, also included in the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service, provides a very clear ranking and trigger system that shows you to trade the very best trend setups given their relative strength and momentum for more active traders who want to enhance their own strategies.One of our members recently wrote us this email:Hello Chris– I want to share a success story but do not want my real name shared (you can use my first name  - “Dave”)I signed up in late December and have taken 7 trades using the BAN system.  I did get into HAIL and SILJ not on a new system signals but as part of the “pre-launch” of the actual BAN system that started in January. All 7 trades I exited in profit.  I’ve been using the signals to go in and out of swing trades as “New” alerts are added.  I’m looking forward to the market turning over and entering into 3 trades at the top of the list (sic).I signed up for the quarterly plan at $250 per quarter, that means I have already gotten a 2,189% ROI on my initial investment.  I’ve more than paid for my subscription for the whole year 5x over in 1 month.Chris – Thank you very much for setting up this system.  It is easy to use, easy to understand and frankly gives you great entry signals.  I very much like quick in and out trades in addition to the longer horizon trades that you teach.  Just waiting for the market to turn over to get into those trades and use your system but in the meantime, your signals are giving great entry points. Dave, sent by email on January 21, 2021. Dave's public review can be found at The Technical Traders - Verified Reviews.I publish these articles and research posts to teach our readers the importance of using efficient trading strategies to grow their wealth, achieve financial goals, and have more free time.  2021 is going to be full of great trading opportunities for those who know how to take advantage of sector rotations, relative strength and momentum. Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months for those subscribers using BAN strategy.  Sign up now and I will teach you how to create and trade your own hotlist in my FREE (less than) one-hour tutorial on the Best Asset Now.For those that don't have the time to research and create their own BAN Hotlist, you can get my Hotlist, research, and trade alerts delivered to you with the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service. Subscribers of BAN Trader Pro will also receive my daily pre-market video where I walk through the charts of all the major asset classes, my BAN Hotlist, and other trade setups and things to watch out for in the markets.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to only trade the Best Assets Now to generate incredible results.Happy Trading!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

GBPUSD Edges Higher But Remains Range-Bound

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.01.2021 08:17
Dollar trades mixed ahead of FOMC meetingEuro Recoups Losses The euro currency pared losses from Monday as the US dollar weakened on Tuesday.Price action continues to remain to consolidate near the key resistance area of 1.2177 – 1.2144.Since Friday, the euro currency has been stuck in this resistance area. Meanwhile, the ascending triangle pattern continues to remain in play.For price to continue to push higher, a breakout above the 1.2177 level is needed.To the downside, a breakdown of the trend line could open the way for the euro to retest the 1.2050 level a bit more firmly.The British pound sterling followed suit with many of its peers by paring losses from Tuesday.Price action posted a strong rebound, which coincides with the medium-term trend line. This rebound saw prices breaking past the 1.3700 handle once again.Further gains are needed to confirm the continuation of the upside.For the moment, the Stochastics oscillator shows that there could be further room to the upside.However, if prices reverse, then watch for the trend line to break. This will open the way to the 1.3500 level for the GBPUSD.Crude Oil Maintains A Hold On The Sideways Range WTI crude oil prices continue to remain trading flat within the larger horizon. Price action gave back the short term gains made.For the moment, oil prices remain firmly entrenched within the 53.70 and 51.87 levels.With prices failing to push higher, we could see an eventual breakdown.A strong close below 51.87 will no doubt see the 49.00 level coming into play.But for the moment, the sideways range could continue, unless the breakout is driven by some strong fundamentals.Gold Prices Subdued On Stimulus Worries The precious metal was seen trading subdued albeit, trading flat. Price action managed to post intraday gains before giving them back.As a result, gold prices are back trading strongly near the 1850 handle. A close below this level could open the way toward the 1817.80 level of support once again.However, the direction is likely to be determined by some fundamental catalyst for the moment.To the upside, the 1911.50 level is within reach if gold prices can close out above the 1874.00 level.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

The Sky Has Just Cleared for Stocks in the Short Run

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2021 16:38
Yesterday, I highlighted the seesaw nature of the S&P 500 grind just in time for the intraday bear raid to hit. How much of a damage has it done, should we pay attention to hanging man candlestick? My article discussed not so smooth sailing ahead in the month of February. Muddling though, yes – start of a real correction, no. Why should it be on the immediate horizon anyway? Quoting my yesterday‘s analysis: (…) The Fed‘s foot is back on the pedal, but inflation hasn‘t reared its ugly head yet – the path of least resistance for stocks remains higher. Unless the corona vaccination programs disappoint the markets, hurting cyclicals and the breadth of stock market advance, that is. Such a turn would take quite some activist economic policy steps to counter, as you can imagine. In today‘s article, I‘ll shine light upon yesterday‘s tremors, and the S&P 500 sectoral outlook, demonstrating that we‘re merely experiencing another rotation within the ongoing stock bull market. And the stock pickers will also benefit. Now that you know what‘s up, let‘s dive into the technicals (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook Long lower knot with the bears temporarily flexing their muscle before the bulls stepped in. Improving volume shows a certain degree of conviction, which is a welcome sign for today‘s session. While the daily indicators are extended, they don‘t support any call for a great rollover to the downside. My yesterday‘s words are valid also today, with us having seen the opening push lower already: (...) The daily indicators seem to favor largely sideways to mildly higher trading action in the nearest days. That‘s one point of view, with the other being that prices haven‘t declined enough to lure in the buyers yet. Given the volume examination, I lean towards sideways trading coupled with an unsuccessful push lower as the most probable scenario over the coming 1-2 weeks. Then, higher prices. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) have also held ground quite well yesterday. While slowing down in pace, the ascent isn‘t broken with a lower low. Investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) had a much better day yesterday. Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – support the stock bull market to continue. With the latter one refusing to budge yesterday, we have likely seen local lows for January already. The stocks to 10-year Treasuries ($SPX:$UST) ratio shows the preference for risk-on assets as intact. The post-election performance is contained within a quite tight, upward sloping channel. The spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries is telling me about increasing willingness to park funds on the sidelines. That‘s the very short-term, daily interpretation. The big picture view reveals that money is flowing away from the long end of the curve (understandably so given the surefire prospects for the return of inflation, in my view), and stocks are benefiting. Volatility spiked yesterday before retreating soundly. Another push higher is likely to come soon, but I am not looking for it to overcome yesterday‘s highs really. I view $VIX as rangebound for the coming weeks with a spike here and there, within the pattern of lower highs. What would make me change my mind? A new narrative replacing the current one of a spending-heavy administration making its moves hand in hand with the Fed. Hand on your heart, how likely is that this soon in the game? S&P 500 Sectoral Performance Technology (XLK ETF) smartly recovered from the intraday plunge but might not be yet out of the woods as the coming sessions would show. Considering its appreciation since the early September climactic top that I‘ve called, the sector has visibly slowed down after leading the S&P 500 from the vicious bear market bottom on March 23. Semiconductors (XSD ETF) belong among the leaders too. While they have performed much stronger than technology since Sep 03, they haven‘t recovered the daily setback to the same degree. Still, they keep trading within their steeper upward sloping channel comfortably thus far. Even after a one way elevator ride, a period of consolidation sooner or later comes, and we might be on the doorstep of one here. Healthcare (XLV ETF) is the second S&P 500 sectoral heavyweight, and it keeps doing fine. Pushing higher, being among the better performing sectors recently, which is supported by its internals. Enter biotech. What semiconductors are to tech, biotech (XBI ETF) is to healthcare. And this leading segment continues to outperform healthcare as a whole, which bodes well for the S&P 500 as such. Financials (XLF ETF) are the third heavyweight, and appear to be done in the very short run with their corrective move. That‘s the message of rising volume and long lower knot to me. The value to growth sectoral ratio (VTV:QQQ) shows we‘ve reached levels consistent with another rotational wave into growth. Just look at the sectors trading with low price/book and price/earnings ratios, and you‘ll see the defensives (utilities, consumer staples), financials and real estate rebounding. Materials, industrials and energy are also ready to rebound, displaying the same price patterns as financials. Summary A sharp intraday correction has come and gone, and the tech performance remains the key precondition of its return. And given the short-term relative weakness in the sector, the nearest days may bring another push lower that won‘t however jeopardize the bull market in the least.  
Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast

Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2021 09:20
With Biden in the White House, Trump's hallmark policies with the exception of 2017 tax cuts, are being undone. Would that be true also about the stock bull market that I called back in spring 2020? Still in autumn that year, I‘ve been saying that there isn‘t any stopping of the bulls (for now). The Fed‘s foot is back on the pedal, but inflation hasn‘t reared its ugly head yet – the path of least resistance for stocks remains higher. Unless the corona vaccination programs disappoint the markets, hurting cyclicals and the breadth of stock market advance, that is. Such a turn would take quite some activist economic policy steps to counter, as you can imagine. Can there be a better indicator than the dollar having rolled over to the downside, which I called in early summer to have happened? Ever since, the dollar has been largely on the defensive, and I projected that to last well into 2021. Here we are, with mammoth stimulus plans, reparations for slavery, minimum wage hikes, Green New Deal coming – you name it, we have it – and my prediction is naturally valid also today. Wait, there is one more clue, and that‘s interest rates. Slowly but steadily, they‘re rising, especially on the long end. With the decreasing foreign appetite (did you know that Russia‘s gold reserves already surpassed its dollar reserves in value terms?) for U.S. government bonds, the Fed will have to step forward increasingly more. Rising rates will be reinforcing inflation as the two go hand in hand. Rising rates thus can‘t be viewed exclusively as bullish spirits returning into the real economy, but as an inflationary surprise looming that will also be reflected in growing outperformance of international stocks vs. the U.S. stock indices. Hi, my name is Monica and I‘m finally back, with truly mine and free Stock Trading Signals, and own website to boot! Nothing is standing now in the way of my personal blog and active trading style. Yes, I am so happy to be making a return with my very own daily free analyses and intraday updates after being the author of Stock Trading Alerts since early 2020. What a great and rewarding experience I could have delivered to you, the truly grateful ones. Check out my fresh bio, drop me your questions anytime, and I‘ll answer to the benefit of all. Now that you know what‘s up, let‘s dive into the technicals (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook 2021 is about stocks trading near the upper range of their Bollinger Bands volatility spectrum. The weekly indicators haven‘t flashed sell signals, yet volume isn‘t at its strongest. Still, it‘s representative of an ongoing bull market, where 2021 won‘t however be as good a year for the stock market as 2020 was. Still, it‘ll be a good year where S&P 500 would comfortably beat not only the 4,000, but 4,200 mark. We‘ll also experience significant corrections but the nearest one won‘t arrive in February in earnest. I see the coming month as a relatively weak one, muddle through if you will. The daily chart shows the upward sloping trend channel nicely, with the breakdown attempt at the turn of the year soundly defeated. The daily indicators seem to favor largely sideways to mildly higher trading action in the nearest days. That‘s one point of view, with the other being that prices haven‘t declined enough to lure in the buyers yet. Given the volume examination, I lean towards sideways trading coupled with an unsuccessful push lower as the most probable scenario over the coming 1-2 weeks. Then, higher prices. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) aren‘t pushing higher as vigorously as they had been recently. A sell signal? Hardly. Sign of caution? Don‘t jump the gun. I count on the pattern of higher highs and higher lows to continue, supporting the stock market rally. The ratio of high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) isn‘t flashing danger yet either. Visually, there is no relative overextension to S&P 500, and the recent moves favor muddling through with an upward bias over the coming weeks. Inspecting S&P 500 relative to the high yield corporate bonds to all bonds (PHB:$DJCB) ratio shows quite clear skies ahead. Risk appetite isn‘t really waning. Rising Treasury yields (i.e. falling Treasury prices) are synonymous with economic expansion but a bit more is at play in 2021. This year, I am turning towards the explanation of inflation slowly but surely making a return, which is nowhere better seen than with the food price indices. The Fed also says that food price inflation is the best predictor of forthcoming, broader inflation. That explains quite nicely the rising rates in the face of the real economy waiting for months for the stimulus to arrive. With the dollar stuck deep in its bear market as one more sign of the inflationary storm striking this year, who would want to take the other side of the trade? Emerging Markets, Smallcaps, and S&P 500 Market Breadth It‘s my view that we‘ve entered the era of emerging markets (EEM ETF) outperforming the U.S. indices. That doesn‘t mean the S&P 500 would crater, but it would lag behind in appreciation. The emerging markets support the stock upswing to go on still. The Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) keeps trading in sync with the S&P 500, helping in its rebound from the mid-Jan lows. Their strong performance shows that they expect smooth sailing for the announced $1.9T stimulus plan. New highs new lows are the only (temporary) fly in the bullish ointment here. Spelling solid potential for a bear raid, I look for the downside from this divergence in the making to prove rather temporary and shallow. Precious Metals and Bitcoin Let‘s talk real money, these safe haven assets. Yes, given the 2020 performance and cues from monetary policy taken, it‘s hard to argue that Bitcoin didn‘t behave as another fiat currency nemesis. Still, I‘ll focus on precious metals within this section, because I‘ll be introducing Gold Trading Signals in the near future, so stay tuned for yet another daily publication of mine. Another market call that proved correct – gold didn‘t really give up all its summer rally, and the prolonged base building is in its latter stages. Yes, it‘s my view that we‘re going to see gold fireworks enter this spring, and that these prices represent a favorable entry point for a medium-term oriented investor. As for the short-term one, I‘ll cater to their needs in my upcoming daily publication, and today, with my first 2021 analysis, aim to provide you with a big picture view over the financial landscape at large, kind of my gameplan for the first half of 2021 if not more. The gold miners to gold ratio is trading at favorable levels for the buyers, and I look for the miners to start performing better over the next few weeks. The healthy period of long base building is drawing to an end. Silver would also join in the party, and the gold chart is sending a signal that this is going to unfold before too long. Bitcoin, the greatest beneficiary of aggressive monetary policy in 2020, agrees. Its chart pattern would favor some more sideways trading as a healthy precondition of another upleg, but don‘t be surprised if the cryptocurrency correction doesn‘t flatten the 50-day moving average. Yes, I‘m looking for the bulk of the corrective move in terms of prices, to be over already. Summary Over the coming two weeks of earnings reports, stocks are in for some short-term volatility. Sizable correction? Not really. But we‘re trading at quite elevated levels, and the month of February is shaping up to be weaker than January. No doubt about it, but there won‘t be a correction to speak of this early in 2021. With the Fed stepping up its balance sheet expansion, the monetary policy hasn‘t yet lost its charm, and inflation isn‘t on the radar screen of most. Investor sentiment is at greed, but not extreme greed. The put to call ratio is rising, which points to a not so smooth sailing ahead. Still, the bull market has better days in its future, but given the momentary balance of forces and especially the risk-reward ratio, I‘m not jumping in with both feet. As this is my first analysis in 2021, I‘m actually waiting on the sidelines for now. Subscribers to Monica‘s Insider Club, which features the trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals, would know right away when I make any move.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

When to adjust your stop loss

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 26.01.2021 09:35
When to adjust your stop loss   I have already written a lengthy report with plenty of examples on how to manage your risk when in a trade in THIS article. But I wanted to provide a template here to give you an idea of exactly when I normally adjust the stop loss.  Let's get straight to the point. The diagram below describes how I normally adjust the stop loss for a long trade and the opposite of this for a sell trade: Source: TradingCandles.com   To show you how I use the above template to manage the stop in some of my most recent trade signals for the private group, here are a couple of real world examples: Example 1: USD/CAD The USD/CAD was one of my recent trade signals. The idea was to sell the rallies into resistance in a downtrend. So, after a two- or three-day rebound into the bearish trend line, I thought it was the right time to issue a sell trade idea:  Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com   In addition to the above chart, I posted the below hourly chart showing the specifics of the trade entry, as well a short rationale behind the idea: "USD/CAD daily sows price reaching a potential resistance area (trend line and 21-day eMA) after a counter trend rebound off the lows. The long-term trend is bearish. So we will look for a sell setup here." "USD/CAD short trade idea on H1 chart – the idea is based off the daily and the fact that on this timeframe rates have rallied to and stalled at the 61.8% Fibo. The invalidation level is above the most recent high on H1 and also the trend line above the daily. The main target is the liquidity below the recent low " Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com     After providing the above trade signal, rates started to go down as we had envisaged, prompting me to provide the following update, as my focus now was on reducing the risk (as we always do after entering a trade): "USD/CAD update – lower the stop on this so we can lock in some profit as price has now created some structure below our entry range. It is important to continually monitor your positions, especially at times like now when the markets are all over the place. " Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    As can be seen from the above 4-hour chart, the reason why I moved the stop lower was because of the fact price had created a structure of interim lower highs and lower lows. I did not take into account the entry range and didn't just move the stop loss just for the sake of moving it to breakeven or better. But there was good reason for us to do so, and price action told us when it was the right time.  As it happened, the USD/CAD stalled just ahead of our intended target, which, together with the fact the US dollar was weakening against some other currencies, meant it was probably the best time to close it manually. So I provided the following rationale and chart for the subscribers behind my decision to close it ahead of the target: "USD/CAD closing it manually here for at least +125 pips profit. Oil prices have stalled and the US dollar has shown signs of life against some currencies already e.g. against euro and gold. So let's not take any chances and close this for a very good profit."  Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    Example 2: GBP/JPY Another of our trade ideas which required management of the stop was the long GBP/JPY setup, which was issued on 11th January 2021. This is what I wrote to the group: "GBP/JPY is looking quite bullish and think more gains are likely in my view as ongoing risk rally keeps the pressure on the safe haven yen and I think the pound will bounce back because no-deal Brexit has been avoided. The next key objective is the long-term bear trend and previous high around 142.71ish " Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    I then issued the specifics of the GBP/JPY long trade idea on the 4-hour chart as rates were testing the bullish trend line. The stop low below the most recent lows on 4H candles and thus the trend line: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    The GBP/JPY hit our first target for at least +100 pips and by now I had tightened the stop on the small portion still left open as shown on the updated chart to lock in some profit in case price reversed: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    As it turned out, this trade reversed and stopped us out of the second portion (for a small profit). But on reflection, perhaps I shouldn't have adjusted the the stop too tightly as price subsequently rebounded again after re-testing our entry area: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com    Final words It is impossible to know ahead of time whether adjusting the stop loss is better than not doing anything at all. The way I see it is that you should adjust the stop loss as price action evolves and the market makes new price structures. On occasions, you might regret adjusting the stop loss. But essentially, what you want to do is reduce risk and remain in control of the trade. A small win is, after all, a win, and certainly not a loss. I would rather make a small win than lose a full 1R on any given trade.   
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Bitcoin, a peaceful future

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 27.01.2021 09:55
Part of the government being able to lend against your savings is the need to deposit your currency into the banking system. You’re forced to do so since it is impracticable to make long-distance financial transactions with cash tucked under your mattress and the risk of theft. Bitcoin allows for long-distance trade in a short time. This, without exposure to the government and as such not vulnerable to devaluation. This is more than just attractive.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, From last week’s chart book:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 18th, 2021Last week we posted this daily chart to find ourselves taking four profitable long entries (posted in real time in our free Telegram channel) within this sliver of a forecasted support zone (see chart below). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Just like Ordered:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 25th, 2021BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Large time frame precision forecasting:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 18th, 2021We also posted this monthly chart (see above) with a single-entry price in our last week’s chartbookpublication. Bitcoin dropped from US$35,770 to US$28,850. It turned around only 38 points below the predicted entry-level of US$28,888. Trading entry risk of less than 0.13 percent (see chart below).BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Extremely low-risk large time frame turning points:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2021We didn’t point this out as our achievement but rather illustrating that Bitcoin is tradeable with high accuracy. It is a likely tradeable instrument. If you are new to this market instrument, we encourage you to educate yourself about its various aspects and possible benefits for your wealth preservation and wealth creation portfolio.We see bitcoin from these levels quickly rising to all-time highs and beyond.Bitcoin, a peaceful futureWe are not naive to realize there is a simplification underlying this hypothesis, but nevertheless, we find it compelling that such a way to peace is at least a possibility. We are confronted with a future from various aspects pointing towards a need to change in a shorter period than we are used to. Finances presenting such a huge element of our life, at least allowing for such a paradigm shift to transpire, is, in our humble opinion, an essentially needed first step and an encouraging thought for a better tomorrow. In other words, as Paul Tudor Jones stated: A Bet on Bitcoin Is a Bet on Human Ingenuity. And he is not alone in pointing towards a better future. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

How the Eurozone Affects Gold, and Why You Should Care

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.01.2021 16:14
In our globalized economy, currency pairs have a negative correlation with gold, so how does the current EUR/USD situation impact the yellow metal?It pays to pay attention to what is happening in Europe. As is well known, there are many currency pairs in the world, but the most traded one is the EUR/USD. How does that affect you as a gold investor? The equation goes something like this: if the economy of the Eurozone sinks and takes the EUR down with it, the USD rises – and vice-versa. Gold, which is usually inversely related to the dollar, will also either rise or decline based on the latter’s behavior.Before we get to Europe though, let’s take a look at what gold is currently doing.Once again, yesterday’s (Jan. 26) session was relatively uneventful on the technical front, but that doesn’t mean that the outlook is any more bullish.Conversely, it remains bearish because of multiple developments that happened before the current pause. For instance, the invalidation of gold’s breakout above its 2011 high. Even though it had help from a sliding USD Index, the yellow metal still failed to hold above this critical support level.It seems that the only thing that made gold rally in the recent past was the U.S. inauguration-based uncertainty. As it fades away, gold is losing its gleam. In fact, the previous relative weakness seems to have already returned.Figure 1 – USD Index futures (DX.F)Taking the previous two days into account (precisely: yesterday and today’s pre-market trading), we see that the USD Index declined. In such a situation, gold should have rallied or at least paused, but what did it do?Figure 2 - COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)Gold declined. This means that gold’s weakness relative to the USDX is back.Looking at the above chart, I marked the November consolidation with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation, based on the end of the huge daily downswing. Gold moved briefly below it in recent days, after which it rallied back up, and right now it’s very close to the upper right corner of the rectangle.This means that the current situation remains very similar to what we saw back in November, right before another slide started – and this second slide was bigger than the first one. Consequently, there’s a good reason for gold to reverse any day (or hour) now.Let’s get back to the USD Index for a minute.I think that the USD Index is likely to rally in the following weeks, but as far as the next several days are concerned, the situation is relatively unclear.The USD Index finds itself after the breakout above the declining medium-term resistance line, but it’s also after a breakdown below the rising short-term support line. Consequently, it’s very short-term outlook is relatively unclear. In all cases, I don’t see it moving visibly below the previous 2021 low.And since the situation is unclear with regard to the short-term in case of the USDX, it would be natural for gold to hesitate. Since it’s already declining, it seems that even if the USDX tested its previous 2021 low, gold would not rally far.Figure 3 - COMEX Silver Futures (SI.F)Similarly to gold, silver is not doing much. The white metal is moving back and forth after the big January slide and it seems to be preparing for another move lower.Let’s keep in mind that silver has a triangle-vertex-based reversal in late February – close to Feb. 23. Based on what we’ve seen so far, it seems quite likely that it will be a major bottom (not likely the final one for this slide, though).Figure 4 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Miners didn’t do much yesterday either, so my previous comments on them remain up-to-date. To explain the pattern, I wrote on Jan. 11 :If you analyze the chart above, the area on the left (marked S) represents the first shoulder, while the area in the middle (H) represents the head and the area on the right (second S) represents the potential second shoulder.Right now, $33.7-$34 is the do-or-die area. If the GDX breaks below this (where the right shoulder forms) it could trigger a decline back to the $24 to $23 range (measured by the spread between the head and the neckline; marked with green).And after analyzing Thursday’s (Jan. 21) price action, I wrote the following (on Jan. 22):As far as the miners are concerned, mining stocks didn’t correct half of their 2021 decline. They didn’t invalidate the breakdown below the rising support line, either. In fact, the GDX ETF closed yesterday’s session below the 50-day moving average. Technically, nothing changed.Regarding the GDX ETF’s current consolidation pattern (November to present), it mirrors what we saw between April and June of last year (the shaded green rectangles above).I added:Both shoulders of the head-and-shoulder formation can be identical, but they don’t have to be , so it’s not that the current consolidation has to end at the right border of the current rectangle. However, the fact that the price is already close to this right border tells us that it would be very normal for the consolidation to end any day now – most likely before the end of January.If we see a rally to $37, or even $38, it won’t change much – the outlook will remain intact anyway, and the right shoulder of the potential head-and-shoulders formation will remain similar to the left shoulder.But with many paths to get there, is hitting $37 or $38 a prerequisite to the eventual decline? Absolutely not. The GDX ETF could reverse right away and catch many market participants flat-footed.Remember, it’s important to keep last week’s rally in context. Despite the Yellen-driven bounce, the GDX ETF is still down considerably from its January highs.Having said that, let’s take a look at the market from a more fundamental angle.The Widening Economic DivergenceFor weeks, I’ve been highlighting the economic malaise confronting the Eurozone. And like a fork in the road, the U.S. and Europe continue to head in opposite directions. More importantly though, the fundamental fate of the two regions, and the subsequent performance of the EUR/USD, will go a long way in determining the precious metals’ destiny.Figure 5If you analyze the chart above, you can see that gold and silver tend to track the performance of the EUR/USD. And while gold bucked the trend on Tuesday (Jan. 26), silver still remains a loyal follower. Thus, as the European economy sinks further into quicksand, its relative underperformance is likely to pressure the EUR/USD and usher the PMs lower.On Friday (Jan. 22), the IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in January (down from 49.1 in December), with services falling to 45.0 (from 46.4) and manufacturing falling to 54.7 (from 55.2).Please see below:Figure 6To explain, PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data is compiled through a monthly survey of executives at more than 400 companies. A PMI above 50 indicates business conditions are expanding, while a PMI below 50 indicates that business conditions are contracting (the scale on the left side of the chart).In contrast to the Eurozone, the U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58 in January (up from 55.3 in December), with services rising to 57.5 (up from 54.8) and manufacturing rising to 59.1 (up from 57.1).Figure 7In addition, after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde revealed (on Jan. 21) that the Eurozone economy likely shrank in the fourth-quarter (all but sealing a double-dip recession), Germany (the Eurozone’s largest economy) cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast from 4.4% to 3.0%.And not looking any better, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook Report – which covers IMF economists' analysis over the short and medium-term – has the U.S. economy expanding by 5.1% in 2021 versus only 4.2% for the Eurozone. More importantly though, the Eurozone economy is expected to contract by 7.2% in 2020 versus 3.4% for the U.S. As a result, Europe has to dig itself out of a much larger hole.Please see below:Figure 8Also noteworthy, the IMF downgraded its GDP growth forecast for Canada. And because the USD/CAD accounts for more than 9% of the movement in the USD Index (though still well below the nearly 58% derived from the EUR/USD) it’s an important variable to monitor.Continuing the theme of Eurozone underperformance, U.S. consumer confidence (released on Jan. 26) rose from 87.1 in December (revised) to 89.3 in January (the red box below).Figure 9 - Source: Bloomberg/ Daniel LacalleIn contrast, Eurozone consumer confidence (released on Jan. 21) retreated in January. And while both regions’ readings are still well below pre-pandemic levels, currencies trade on a relative basis. As a result, the relative underperformance of the Eurozone is bearish for the EUR/USD.Figure 10If that wasn’t enough, the ECB essentially admitted it wants a weaker euro. On Tuesday (Jan. 26), reports surfaced that the ECB will investigate the causes of the euro’s appreciation relative to the greenback. Translation? The central bank is studying ways to devalue the currency.Adding more fuel to the fire, the yield differential between the U.S. and Europe foretells a higher USD Index. Dating back to 2003, after the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield troughed and began rising, the USD Index (except for 2008-2009) always followed suit.Please see below:Figure 11 - Source: Daniel LacalleIn contrast, if you analyze the area at the bottom, you can see that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has bounced by 57 basis points from its August low. But moving in the opposite direction, the USD Index is lower now than it was it August.Furthermore, notice the large divergence that’s occurred since the beginning of December?Figure 12The abnormal behavior above highlights the power of sentiment. Because U.S. investors ‘want’ a lower USD Index, they’re willing to overlook technicals, fundamentals, historical precedent and essentially, reality. However, if the dynamic reverses, the USD Index is ripe for a resurgence.Circling back to the euro, the currency is already starting to crack. On Monday (Jan. 25), I wrote that Janet Yellen’s pledge to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package ushered the EUR/GBP back above critical support.However, on Tuesday (Jan. 26), the key level broke again.Please see below:Figure 13More importantly though, a break in the EUR/GBP could be an early warning sign of a forthcoming break in the EUR/USD.Figure 14If you analyze the chart above, ~20 years of history shows that the EUR/GBP and the EUR/USD tend to follow in each other’s footsteps. As a result, if the EUR/GBP retests its April low (the next support level), the EUR/USD is likely to tag along for the ride (which implies a move back to ~1.08).Figure 15And like a falling string of dominoes, if the EUR/USD retests ~1.08, the PMs should come under significant pressure.Figure 16If you analyze the chart above, you can see that over the last ~20 years, gold and silver tend to live and die with the EUR/USD. Naturally, there are also other factors, but the point is that the performance of this currency pair shouldn’t be ignored. As a result, a euro collapse (or at least a significant decline in it) could deliver plenty of fireworks. Conversely, once order is restored and weak Eurozone fundamentals are accurately priced into the EUR/USD, the precious metals will present us with an attractive buying opportunity.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

US Stock Market Rolls Lower After 18% Rally Since November 2020

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.01.2021 03:23
Price action is usually conducted in a series of up and down price phases – or waves/cycles.  Typically, price will move higher or lower in phases- attempting to trend upward or downward over time. This type of price action is normal.  Extended upward trends with very little downward price retracements happen sometimes – but not often.  They usually happen in “excess phase” rallies or after some type of news event changes expectations for a symbol/sector.Putting Concerns Into Perspective – Still BullishSince early November 2020, the US stock market has continued to rally in a mode that is similar to an excess phase rally – showing very little signs of moderate price rotation. While price volatility has continued to stay higher than normal, you can see from the SPY Daily chart below that it has rallied from $324.40 to $385.95 (over 18%) in just under 90 days.  At some point in the future, a moderate price rotation/retracement will happen that may be in excess of 6% to 11% - as has happened in the past.The purpose of this research post is to alert readers that the markets appear to have started a period of downside price rotation – which is normal. This SPY Daily chart, above, highlights the upward support channel originating from the March 21, 2020, COVID-19 lows (CYAN line) and also the upward support channel originating from the early November 2020 lows (YELLOW line). It is important to understand that any downside price retracement which stays above the CYAN line level should be considered a normal range price rotation within a bullish trend.  This suggests a -3% to -4% downside price trend from current levels would simply qualify as downward price rotation within a bullish trend – nothing more.If price were to break below the CYAN upward trending support channel, then we would become more concerned that a deeper price downtrend is setting up which may target lows from Mid-November 2020 (-6.5%) or the late October 2020 lows (-13% to -14%) from current SPY price levels.  Obviously, a deeper downside trend targeting the October 2020 lows would suggest the US stock markets are potentially entering a new phase of trending – possibly a sideways consolidation trend.TRAN Testing Support Near 12,180The following Transportation Index daily chart shows a very clear picture of how this “rollover” in the markets has setup and where real support is likely to be found.  The early January lows, near 12,180 are the most likely immediate support level on the TRAN Daily chart, below.  If the US stock market attempts to find immediate support to sustain the current bullish rally trend, then this level in the TRAN will likely hold up well over the next few days/weeks. Otherwise, if the TRAN breaks below this level, then the next viable downside target become the November 2020 lows (or somewhere close to those levels).Be sure to sign up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find and trade my BEST ASSET NOW strategy on your own!Using Fibonacci Retracement Theory from the early November 2020 lows to recent highs, we achieve the following levels:25% retracement: 12,628.9238.2% retracement: 12,331.4450% retracement: 12,065.4761.8% retracement: 11,799.51The 12,180 level we are suggesting will turn into critical support is just above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.  Therefore, any further downside trending would be predicated by a breach of both the 12,180 level and the 12,065.47 level.  If price holds above either of these support levels confidently, we would consider further downside risks unlikely.VIX Spike Higher BeginsThe upward spike in the VIX recently is indicative of how volatile the markets have become after nearly 90 days of continued upward trending.  Whenever the US stock market enters a decidedly bullish price trend for an extended period of time, the VIX naturally “normalizes” into a lower boundary and becomes hypersensitive to moderate price rotations.  We've seen this happen many times in the past.Because of the way the VIX is calculated, when these breakout moves happen while the market is conducting a relatively normal price rotation/correction, the VIX can sometimes spike above 35 or 45. To put this into perspective, the 2008-09 market crash prompted a VIX move to near 95.  The COVID-19 market crash prompted a VIX move to near 85. Many other moderate market downtrends over the past 10+ years prompted VIX moves above 30~40.  Three of the biggest “normal range” VIX moves happened in August 2011 (VIX level near 48),  August 2015 (VIX level near 53.50), and February 2018 (VIX level near 50).If another big market rotation were to take place in the near future, we believe early February would be the time/place for it to happen based on our predictive modeling system's expectations (see this research article: (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-to-expect-in-2021-part-ii-gold-silver-and-spy/).  We also believe this downside price swing will end fairly quickly and that a continued bullish price trend will resume in March or April 2021.The potential for a broader market rotation and trend “reset” is aligning with our December 2020 predictions for 2021.  Quite possibly, the downside price trending we are seeing now is the start of a 15 to 25+ day market rotation which will likely “reset” the bullish trending bias and allow for broader market trends to continue higher. We consider this an opportunity for traders to take advantage of this rotation in major markets and sectors.2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using the Best Assets Now strategy.  Are you ready for these big market rotations expected in 2021? You can trade my BAN ETF strategy with no proprietary indicator, scanners, or algorithms just by watching my FREE webinar. Not only will it show you a strategy you can implement tomorrow, but you will also receive over $100 worth of free goodies designed to make you an even better trader… no strings attached. Go ahead and watch the webinar now – click here to start. If you want to improve your own trading strategy and win-rate without doing the research yourself, then you need to subscribe to BAN Trader Pro newsletter service to get my daily BAN Hotlist, my pre-market video walkthrough of the charts every morning, and my BAN strategy trade alerts.Happy Trading!
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

S&P 500 and Gold Bulls, Get Ready to Meet the Bears

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2021 09:08
Yesterday‘s recovery ended on a weak note as stock bulls gave up the opening gap. Disappointing in the very short run, especially given that other key markets acted likewise weak. Neither corporate bonds, nor gold, nor oil could get their act together, and are hanging in the balance. Inviting the bears to probe the defences, how far south will they be able to get? We have the Fed meeting later today, and while I am not looking for hawkish surprises or any outright optimism, the investors aren‘t taking chances. Sell now, ask questions later seem to be the mantra before the U.S. open. While Monday‘s hanging man candlestick predictably didn‘t bring follow through selling on Tuesday, I am looking for the bulls to get tested today. Once the dust clears, we can go on making new highs, but the short-term storm (storm in a teacup, more precisely) hasn‘t started yet. In today‘s article, I‘ll examine the S&P 500 standing, look into precious metals, and finally answer a pointed question about gold. Let‘s start (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook Stocks are hanging in the short-term balance following yesterday‘s weak close. Unconvincing volume, inviting a premarket push to the low 3800s as we speak. The aftermath of the Fed will set the tone for the coming sessions, but I would look for early credit market clues before buying any dip. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) had a weak day yesterday, missing the opportunity to rise. Quite to the contrary, they traded relatively weaker than the S&P 500 did. Any time corporate bonds start underperforming stocks, I am watching closely, and often from the sidelines. Investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) closed about unchanged while Treasuries paused and didn‘t really advance compared to Monday. They appear waiting for the Fed, unwilling to move before discounting possible hawkish surprise (positive assessment of the economy would do that trick) as a false alarm. The ratio of high yield corporate bonds against short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) with the S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows the very short-term vulnerability in stocks. How low will these go as the greed sentiment gets taken down a notch? You see, yesterday I did strike an optimistic tone in the runup to the regular session‘s open, but the bulls missed a good opportunity to act, and the resultant signals favor the bears to step in now. That‘s the essence of my trading style – neither a permabull, nor a permabear, and always ready to turn on a dime should the facts change. The market breadth indicators show we‘re on the doorstep of a push lower. Instead of holding ground, new high new lows solidly declined, while both the advance decline line and advance decline volume muddled through. That‘s not exactly a bullish constellation. Precious Metals in Focus Gold also appears to be acting a bit weak in the short run. No surprise as I don‘t see the lengthy consolidation as quite over yet. This one will more likely wear you out than scare you out. Simply put, the gold bulls better wait for spring to usher in another precious metals upleg as the miners to gold ($HUI:$GOLD) ratio isn‘t sending any kind of confirmation that the sector has made a turn. The gold to silver ratio keeps treading water, and isn‘t declining below its early September lows. On the other hand, it‘s not trading too far from them either, which translates into silver not acting at its weakest exactly. That‘s a bullish sign, showing that this 5-month long consolidation is really getting long in the tooth. Completing the picture, miners (GDX ETF) reveal lackluster short-term performance. Long upper knot and volume as low as could have been, mean that we better brace ourselves for a down session today. From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hi Monica, congratulations and best wishes on your new venture and I look forward to following your work. I'm an English working class boy, now very Grey who follows the gold market like a hawk. I'm a longterm investor in PM's sector and I have a largish position in PM miners (still in profit on most) but the last six month are playing havoc with my nerves. The best metaphor I have that describes my current situation is that I have a large bowl of golden soup with a big fly swimming in it and its name is Mr Radomski. His latest missive of 25 Jan outlines "where to now Gold" with a possible/probable decline of gold to between $1500 - $1600. I was rather hoping you might comment on his analysis and on how you see things developing over the coming months. I appreciate that you don't give financial advice but his very bearish view is discomforting given the mad world we have around us and if Gold could crash to these levels in the current situation it begs the question why bother investing in PM's. A: Thank you for the question and for authorizing me to print it just the way it arrived. I‘ll answer solely from my personal perspective, and won‘t comment on personalities. I understand your frustration with gold being unable to really move, but as I tweeted already yesterday, this months-long correction is one to wear you out, not to scare you out. Please check my Aug 07 article written for Sunshine Profits called S&P 500 Bulls Meet Non-Farm Payrolls, where in the section Calling out gold, I discuss the yellow metal‘s prospects. Compare that with my Monday‘s article Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast to see how things turned out in the sector precisely. It‘s with the same conviction that I say today again that this long consolidation in gold is in its latter stages. For now, gold is still rangebound, and I don‘t see a deflationary crash repeating that would bring it to said $1,500 - $1,600 levels. Definitely not. Looking at the real world around us, the Fed is becoming more active in expanding its balance sheet, new stimulus checks are coming (money flowing directly into the real economy, not sitting on commercial banks‘ balance sheets), and fiscal policy isn‘t tame exactly either. Inflation is making a steady return, and it‘s a question of time (think months) before it becomes broadly acknowledged. In such an environment, a gold drop would be bought with both hands, thank you very much. Copper is rising, base metals aren‘t doing badly, and food price inflation is hot. We‘ve entered a decade of commodities, which would outperform paper assets. Who could tell me why gold would crash, even temporarily? What kind of mayhem in the bond markets would have to trigger that? Make no mistake, no single market moves in a vacuum. Quite to the contrary, I look at gold and Bitcoin as the safe haven plays, with Bitcoin being the wild and volatile one. I am saying that Bitcoin has clearly decoupled, and once gold does the same, it means a vote of no confidence in the financial system. But this is not where we are currently. Gold is taking its cues from interest rates, real ones to be precise. The king of metals is also doing well during times of rising inflation. Take the Fed keeping rates as low as can be for as long as eye can see (practical view of things), rising inflation bringing down opportunity costs of holding precious metals, and you have a great driver of higher gold prices. Given the economic policy steps, how likely is a deflationary shock now? Instead, look for the newly created money to keep entering the real economy, battling the high savings rate. Once you see the velocity of money to pick up, that would be the cherry on the cake. Gold unbound next. For now though, arm yourself with patience, and don‘t let any gloomy forecasts not matching your real world experience of what‘s truly going on in this Brave New World, drive you to abandon your prior decision. Have the facts, the rationale changed? Constantly evaluate these, honestly and truthfully without getting scared. No, the answer is that the drivers are still in place, and will be gaining an upper hand increasingly more over time. I see gold as breaking higher from this lengthy consolidation in spring, and as I‘ve explained in Monday‘s article, miners are set to outperform the metal early in this move when it comes, because they‘ve been beaten down quite sufficiently already. Look also at the gold to silver ratio. Spikes in favor of gold are what I would look for in the next monetary crisis, or liquidity crunch. Currently, none is on the horizon. Summary Time has come for another daily downswing in stocks, and it remains to be seen whether it entices the buyers to act. Technology, communications and consumer staples were among the best performing sectors yesterday, which doesn‘t paint a picture of broad short-term strength. Repeating the final sentence of yesterday‘s summary, the nearest days may (see today‘s session for proof) bring another push lower that won‘t however jeopardize the bull market in the least.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Powell: Inflation Can Rise In 2021 – So What Happens to Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.01.2021 16:51
The first FOMC meeting in 2021 has concluded without any changes in monetary policy, while Powell sent a few dovish signals during his press conference.The FOMC released on Wednesday (January 27) its newest statement on monetary policy . Generally speaking, the statement was little changed. The main alteration is that the U.S. central bank has acknowledged that “the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months”. Wow, how did they notice that? They really must hire professionals! All jokes aside, this modification in the FOMC statement is dovish . Consequently, when analyzed separately, it’s positive for the price of gold.Another change is that the FOMC now believes that “the ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook”. In December, the Fed thought that the pandemic would impact inflation only in the “near term”, with risks to the outlook “over the medium term”.However, when considered holistically, the January statement is rather bad for the yellow metal , as the Committee neither changed the federal funds rate nor expanded its quantitative easing program . So we have another month without any additional easing of the U.S. monetary policy. Luckily, the ECB also didn’t loosen its stance, but still, the lack of any fresh dovish moves by the Fed is not helpful for gold.Luckily, Powell comes to the rescue! Although he generally sounded rather neutral during his press conference , the Fed Chair has sent a few important dovish signals. First, he clearly excluded the possibility of premature tapering and the replay of 2013’s taper tantrum , saying that “the whole focus on exit is premature if I may say. We’re focused on finishing the job we’re doing, which is supporting the economy, giving the economy the support it needs.” The continuation of the quantitative easing, which will take years, is positive for gold.Second, Powell acknowledged that inflation will increase in 2021, admitting that the Fed will not react to this rise, as it would be only transitory: “We’re going to be patient. Expect us to wait and see and not react if we see small, and what we would view as very likely to be transient, effects on inflation”. This is great news for gold, which is considered by many investors as an inflation hedge . Higher inflation, with the central bank behind the curve, also implies lower real interest rates , which will support gold prices.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent FOMC meeting imply for the gold market? Well, so far, it has reacted little to the Fed’s statement on monetary policy. The reason is simple: the lack of any moves was widely expected, so the markets got no surprises and reacted weakly.However, the easing of the monetary policy could provide a fresh bullish signal that gold seems to need right now. Without such a spark, gold may continue its bearish trend for a while (see the chart below). And, although the markets did not expect any significant announcements from the Fed, some analysts speculated that the U.S. central bank could provide some guidance about the yield curve control. But it didn’t – so further declines wouldn’t be surprising in the short-term.Some analysts even say that the gold’s price pattern of 2020-2021 resembles the period of 2011-2012. If true, it would be a terrible news for the gold bulls. However, history never repeats itself, but only rhymes. The current fundamental outlook is different. Why? Well, this time, in addition to quantitative easing and ZIRP , we also have a very easy fiscal policy with ballooning federal debt and new large fiscal deficits in the pipeline.Another difference is the Fed’s stance. Right now the U.S. central bank openly admits that there is a possibility of upward pressure on inflation , but ask the markets to “expect us to wait and see and not react” (emphasis added). Well, the rise in inflation may be indeed only transitory – but, hey, didn’t they say the same before the 1970s stagflation ?If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Dollar gives back gains after Fed meeting

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.01.2021 07:29
Euro Trades Mixed As Trend-Line Being Tested From BelowThe euro currency is attempting to pare losses from Wednesday. However, price action remains biased to the downside.The short term intraday bounce led the common currency to briefly rise to the 1.2144 level of resistance.A confluence of both the trendline and the horizontal resistance level is keeping prices capped below this level.We expect the EURUSD to probably consolidate within 1.2144 and 1.2050 levels for the near term.Given the fact that the support level near 1.2050 has not been tested yet, we expect prices eventually sliding to test this support level.GBPUSD Rebounds Amid A Mixed BiasThe British pound sterling is posting gains after a rebound from the trendline.Prices remain confined within the ascending wedge pattern. A breakout above the previous highs could confirm further upside.For the moment, price action is likely to range within the ascending wedge pattern.The trend line is currently being tested and a close above this level could signal further gains.However, if price retreats near the trend line, then this will open the risk to the downside.A break down from the ascending wedge pattern will open the way for the GBPUSD to test the 1.3500 level next.Oil Prices Drift Between 53.77 And 51.87WTI crude oil prices continue to maintain a sideways range within the said levels. Prices attempted to make some modest gains, but at the time of writing, oil prices are giving back those gains.The current slide could see the lower end of the range being tested once again. With the previous uptrend now coming to a halt, the current consolidation could see a breakout.The overall bias remains mixed, but a breakout below the 51.87 level could see a possible correction down to the 49.00 level of support.To the upside, above the 53.77 level, we could expect price to test the 55.00 level next.Gold Prices Manage To Recover LossesThe precious metal is seen recovering from the losses from Wednesday. After losing the 1850 handle, gold prices are back above this level once again.However, the pace of the rebound remains weak and we could see price losing the 1850 handle once again.In the medium term, gold prices are firmly above the 1817.79 level of support. As long as this support holds, we expect the precious metal to possibly rise toward the 1874 handle.But in the near term, we could see price action consolidating around the 1850 level for a while.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

A million reasons to buy Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.01.2021 10:05
Silver, Weekly Chart, Multiyear range break, significant trend, range, and?Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 28th, 2021.We are at such a significant point in history where fundamentals are more important for long term wealth preservation prediction than usual. Here is why:U.S. debt is at US$27 trillion.With the transition of the current presidency and the need to print enormous amounts of money to fund national vaccinations, future monetary expansion is inevitable.Silver is the only deflationary asset that’s left that has lost value since the 1980s. While some investors might think this is a good reason not to buy Silver, a contrarian or counter-intuitive approach would find an opportunity in something so undervalued.The greater the amount of currency in circulation, the greater the potential money flow they can trail into precious metals. When the economy collapses and cashflow comes flowing out of the stock market, it will find its way back into precious metals, and prices will rise.  Gold/Silver Ratio, Monthly Chart, Still room to catch up:Gold-Silver Ratio, monthly chart as of January 28th, 2021.But this isn’t all. As of December 11, 2020, Silver’s one-year price change is up 41.94%, and gold’s one-year price change is up 24.75%. Looking at the monthly Gold/Silver-Ratio chart above, we can see that there is still plenty of room for Silver to catch up. We even have support here right now, which would point out that gold runs first again, and then Silver is under pressure to follow.Monthly Chart of Silver, Forecast:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 28th, 2021.Silver is looking very bullish by not having retraced deep in its sideways range since March of last year (27.5%). Therefore, we find it sensible to look at fundamentals more closely when it comes to larger timeframe target projections. Metal prices are strongly correlated with the economic meltdown. Hence, if the banks are too big to fail and keep forestalling inevitable problems into the future by ongoing money printing, we can continue to see prices remain less than stellar. Only when fear strikes the masses will the money leave the stock market and ultimately find itself into precious metals. Is COVID-19, the pandemic, that catalyst?A million reasons to buy Silver:The disparity between economic conditions in corporate earnings will not post well for equities forever. Investors are building up alternative hedges. We have seen massive profits in Bitcoin. If “exotics” get attention like this, a more radical shift in common alternatives like Silver might be ahead.JP Morgan has decreased their short positions after years of accumulating Silver. It leads one to believe that with rumors of J.P. Morgan’s massive silver accumulation, it’s relinquishing recent silver short positions. It could portend a future where silver prices can no longer be manipulated as they once were, as the main manipulator has decided to cash in.With history changing so fast and a million reasons for owning Silver, it is wise to look at markets from both sides. A fundamental and a technical one. More than ever! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Stocks Pop as “Stonks" Controversial

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.01.2021 15:44
In two weeks, Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes will battle in the Super Bowl as the old guard vs. the new era. What's happening in the market right now is no different.Think of Tom Brady as the hedge funds. As old Wall Street. As the suits. Think of Patrick Mahomes as the Reddit/Robinhood investor. The young renegade who could change the face of football or the stock market as we know it.What's happened so far in 2021 is more significant than "stonks." What's happened is deeper than GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) surging by an astounding 1914.55% and 890.05%, respectively, year-to-date, thanks to these small-time investors.We can make all the goofy stonk memes and laugh about how two has-been companies have suddenly become the new Bitcoin all we want.But what happened is the potential changing of the guard of who the market-makers are.I've been talking about a tug of war between good news and bad news and overvalued stocks (and "stonks") for weeks. But we have a new tug of war between the suits at Wall Street hedge funds and Reddit/Robinhood traders. The parallels between Brady vs. Mahomes are palpable.The suits, aka the Tom Bradys, have been controlling the market for decades, manipulating it at their will.But recently, a Reddit group called "WallStreetBets," i.e., the Patrick Mahomes traders, caught on to their game. This group made a joke about how poor GameStop's prospects were and how hilarious it was that hedge funds were shorting it en masse. So they banded together, bought enough shares of the stock to send it soaring, then forced the hedge funds to cover their shorts by buying it up some more!WallStreetBets succeeded so much that they ended up closing a hedge fund’s entire GameStop position !Mahomes beat Brady in a blowout.Granted, what happened on Thursday (Jan. 28) when Robinhood and other trading platforms halted all trading of GME, AMC, and other "stonks" of the like is disturbing. People are complaining about censorship on social media, and this is no different. It's a war against the little guy.But what does this show you? The power is in your hands now.The suits are officially quaking in their fancy shoes and had to resort to drastic moves like this. These multi-billion dollar hedge funds probably called Robinhood in tears saying to stop the trades. Hedge-fund manager Leon Cooperman said as much when he appeared on CNBC Thursday with a sob story. It's quite similar to someone prominent who demanded to "stop the count" and "stop the steal" a few months ago.Don't let this deter you from chasing your goals.Now would I buy these stocks? No. It's not my style and not my philosophy. I think it's detached from reality and a dot-com bust all over again.GameStop, AMC, Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) had predictable crashes on Thursday (Jan. 28) (partially thanks to the brokerages). Complacency is the most significant near-term risk to stocks by far, and I have been warning about this for weeks. But I tip my hat to all those who profited.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, I still think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven't seen one since last March. The manic moves of the past week excite me but concern me greatly.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions, and wish you the best of luck.We’re all in this together! The S&P 500 Recovered After a Needed Breather This Week Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXThe S&P briefly turned negative for 2021 after seeing its worst sell-off in nearly three months on Wednesday (Jan. 27). It saw a reliable recovery Thursday (Jan. 28) and is now up roughly 2.40% for the year.However, it’s down nearly 1.75% week-to-date. It’s a much needed cool-off period of the S&P, and I feel that there could be more dips to come. The S&P remains around the 3800-level and has not been moved by what has been a week full of quality earnings. Remember- when the market usually gets what it expects, it’s usually a reason to sell more than buy. While they are largely beating estimates, earnings are not beating them to the point of exciting investors.I also remain concerned about the S&P’s valuations. Although its RSI is not overbought and in hold territory, I’m still worried about the S&P’s forward P/E ratio, which is the highest it’s been since the dot-com bust.Ned Davis Research also noted that the trailing P/E ratio of the median U.S. stock has never been higher in history, and fewer than ⅓ of S&P 500 stocks are trading under the long-term average 15 P/E.What intrigues me about this index is that it seems to go on multiple day win streaks and lose streaks. After seeing a similar sell-off to what it saw on Wednesday (Jan. 27) three weeks ago, it went on a four-day win streak and broke past 3800. It went on a three-day losing streak this week before seeing its recovery Thursday (Jan. 28).I like this decline in the S&P, and if Friday’s (Jan. 29) futures hold-up, it could mean the S&P’s second losing week in three. I would like to see a more profound drop to around 3600 or below before making a BUY call for the long-term.There is a legitimate upside for the second half of 2021, but I would prefer to maximize it from a lower level. Discount shopping can be fun in the long-term.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Late Yesterday, I Called the S&P 500 Ambush As Likely Over

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2021 16:30
The downswing potential I warned about yesterday, came. Heavy selling continued as the Fed threw cold water in assessing the pace of the recovery, and didn‘t signal readiness to prop it up even more than it does currently. That‘s a disappointment even though nobody really discusses V-shaped recovery anymore. Its pace is uneven – one of the few things that were quite „equally distributed“ yesterday, were sectoral losses in the S&P 500. The investors jumped on the selling bandwagon, confirming my yesterday‘s reservations: (…) We have the Fed meeting later today, and while I am not looking for hawkish surprises or any outright optimism, the investors aren‘t taking chances. Sell now, ask questions later seem to be the mantra before the U.S. open. With volatility spiking to levels unseen since September and October 2020, the question on everyone‘s mind is whether this is the start of another corrective move, and how fast would stocks recover. Make no mistake about it, they will recover – the bull isn‘t over by a long shot, and as I‘ve written in my Monday‘s 2021 prognostications, this year will be still a good one for stocks. Let‘s assess the damage yesterday‘s selling has done, and look at the course ahead (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook The selling wave in the S&P 500 didn‘t stop with yesterday‘s Fed, and picked up steam instead. While the daily indicators flashed their sell signals, this doesn‘t rule out stabilization next, which would disappoint those calling for a (10% or similar) correction. The bull market is intact, and one tough Fed assessment of the situation on the ground, won‘t end it. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) held up much better than than stocks did, and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries haven‘t broken below their recent lows either. Unless they do, that‘s a good sign for stocks to get their act together, regadless of the weak price recovery attempts thus far. The ratio of high yield corporate bonds against short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) with the S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows how far the very short-term vulnerability in stocks that I highlighted yesterday, had reached. While I did strike an optimistic tone in the runup to Tuesday‘s regular session open, the bulls missed a good opportunity to act, and the resultant signals favored the bears to step in on Wednesday, which they did. Changing the tone, that‘s the essence of my trading style – assessment of momentary outlook, and drawing conclusions accordingly. So, what about follow through selling and the reflexive rebound – which of the two would win the day? More S&P 500 Clues The Force index in S&P 500 plunged deeply into negative territory. Short-term damage has been done while Bollinger Bands (a measure of volatility) barely budged, and both moving averages‘ slope remains intact. As I have called publicly and verifiably outside of my website at the onset of today‘s Asian session that we‘re likely to witness partial recovery in today‘s regular session, it appears well underway. And little wonder, if you look at volatility ($VIX) to get a feel for how extraordinary yesterday‘s move was. The spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries shows that the game hasn‘t really changed. That has also made me vocal about not getting scared out by yesterday‘s slide in stocks. Where is the rally in Treasuries (TLT ETF)? The intraday performance would have been expected to be much better thanks to the gloomy Fed views. Yet it wasn‘t. While Treasuries may pause at these levels or even rise next, they don‘t look to me to exert momentary pressure on stocks in any way. Long upper knot, selling into temporary strength, that‘s all there was to a dollar rally? That‘s another clue that stocks have overreacted. Summary The anticipated downswing brought a bloodbatch across the board, and it indeed enticed the buyers to act – just as the odds favored. Gold held relatively well, and none of the other indicators were in place to declare the move to be the start of a real correction. My open long position is in the black! Again, see today‘s action for proof that the bull market wasn‘t endagered in the least... Trading position (short-term; futures; my take): the already initiated long positions (100% position size) with stop-loss at 3525 and initial upside target at 3900 are justified from the risk-reward perspective. Below, you‘ll find my time-tested approach to money management per trade. If you’re using e-mini S&P 500 futures, 1-point move in the S&P 500 amounts to $50. Multiply that with the difference between the entry and stop-loss, and better don’t risk more than 6% or maximum 8% of your trading account on this trade alone. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and the upcoming Gold Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Here’s What’s More Important than the Recent Reddit Mania

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.01.2021 16:36
GameStop! Reddit! Silver manipulation (that’s been discussed for over two decades)! It’s exciting but pay attention to these more important factors.Is the above really the key thing that’s happening in the markets right now? No, it’s only the most interesting thing. I admit, what we’re seeing on the Internet right now is truly absorbing, but one should realize that it’s what used to happen multiple times in history. This time it’s simply more visible as the conversations and associated images are publicly available and widely distributed.In yesterday’s intraday Alert , I commented on the issue of the likely implications of these cumulative purchases on the precious metals market as a whole and what difference they are likely to make over the course of the following months and weeks – next to none.Well, there is one effect that I’m expecting to see. It’s the increased volatility during the following price declines – likely proportionate to what was so vigorously bought in the last few days.Figure 1 – GameStop Corporation (GME) - NYSEThe above GameStop chart shows a near-vertical rally, and it also shows the spike in volume. The purchasing power seems to have dried up and the price – as expected – fell. Those, who bought at $300, were already at a 33% loss as of yesterday’s close.The various forums (other forums joined in, it’s not just Reddit anymore) are filled with messages and images encouraging to “hold”. But sooner or later people will realize that without fresh buyers the price is going to fall, and one by one, they are likely to panic and sell – especially knowing that they won’t be “punished” by the “forum community” in any way, as it’s not known to the forum participants who is selling and when.The topic of silver manipulation , paper silver and paper gold really is older than 20 years, and it’s been mostly the same argument over all those years. The price managed to rally from below $5 to about $50 – if there was a massive long-term manipulation, then it wasn’t particularly effective. If it didn’t prevent silver from rallying so far, then why would it prevent silver from rallying from below $20 to $200? Anyway, this topic is too broad to be fully discussed, even in a lengthy Alert – the point that I want to make here is that nothing new happened in the silver market – it just got more spotlight.So, what’s more important and timelier than the above topics, even though it doesn’t get as much attention – and can herald a decline in the precious metals?Figure 2 – S&P 500 (ES.F)First, the almost-confirmed medium-term breakdown in stocks!On Wednesday, the S&P 500 futures moved visibly below the rising support line and closed below it for the first time. Despite yesterday’s strength, stocks were unable to rally back above it and so far, today, stocks are moving lower. If the S&P 500 futures close today below this line, the breakdown will be confirmed by both: three consecutive daily closes and a weekly close. This will be a bearish sign for the short term.If stocks slide further shortly, it will be particularly bearish for silver and mining stocks, which means that those who bought yesterday based on forum messages etc. would be likely to find themselves at a loss relatively soon. This, in turn, means that the decline could be quite volatile.Second, there is also another market that could ignite the powerful decline in the PMs and miners – the rallying USD Index.Figure 3 – USD Index (DX.F)Despite the intraday decline, the USDX is once again close to its 2021 highs.The USD Index is testing its previous 2020 highs, and it might (!) be forming the right shoulder of a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern. The key word here is “might”. If the USDX rallies above its previous highs (about ~91), this pattern will be invalidated and the short-term outlook for the USDX will be clearly bullish. This would also serve as a breakout above the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern (mid-Dec. low being the left shoulder, the early 2021 low being the head, and the recent low being the right shoulder), which would have even more bullish implications (with the price target above 92).Would this be enough for gold to decline to $1,700? It might not be enough, but it might be enough for the miners to move to my above-mentioned initial downside targets ($31 and $42.5 for GDX and GDXJ, respectively).So, the bearish storm seems to be brewing. How are the precious metals responding? Let’s take a look at gold.Figure 4 – COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)Gold shrugged off yesterday’s “exciting news” coming from the internet’s forums. It rallied initially, almost touched its declining resistance line, and then reversed, thus erasing the previous gains. It’s now trading pretty much at the same levels where it was trading two days ago. The outlook remains bearish and yesterday’s reversal actually makes it even stronger.Figure 5 – COMEX Silver Futures (SI.F)Silver is visibly stronger than it was a few days ago, but if the precious metals sector is about to head lower (especially given the breakdown in stocks) this would be normal even without the entire “let’s buy silver” forum theme.And miners?Figure 6 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Miners invalidated the breakdown below the neck level of the head and shoulders pattern. Invalidations of these breakouts tend to be “buy” signals. BUT yesterday’s session has “ this time really was different” written all over it.Part of the purchase encouragements on forums were for mining stocks. While silver has indeed rallied yesterday (and so did AG, which was particularly promoted), the GDX ETF moved higher only somewhat. It still closed more or less at its mid-January low and it didn’t manage to erase Tuesday’s decline.Overall, I think that the proper context is the relative weakness of miners and not the direct implications of the technical invalidation.Moreover, please note that if the symmetry in terms of shape between both green boxes on the above chart is to be upheld, then it shouldn’t be surprising to see a quick volatile upswing that’s very short. In fact, since the volatility now is smaller than it was in late April 2020, what we saw yesterday might have already been the analogy to what had happened back then.All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish for the following weeks, regardless of what the next few days will bring.Also… Do you remember about bitcoin? Some time ago, I wrote that the bitcoin situation made the overall situation in currencies similar to late 2017 / early 2018.Figure 7 - Bitcoin Vault (BTC.V)Just as we saw back then, bitcoin soared while the USD Index plunged. Then both markets reversed .Figure 8That was also the time when precious metals and miners (and stocks) topped.So, what’s new?We just saw another clear confirmation that this is the very final inning of the rally. You probably heard that in the final part of a bull market, everything that’s in it soars. If it’s a gold bull market, then even stocks that have “gold” in their name will likely rally even though they might have nothing to do with the precious metals market. People don’t care to check, and emotions are too high to bother checking what they are actually buying.Well, there’s a cryptocurrency that started as a joke, but then became a relatively big market.Dogecoin .The reason why I’m mentioning it is that dogecoin just soared…Figure 9And it had previously soared in this way in early 2018, a few weeks after bitcoin topped.This is exactly what one would expect to see at a market top, based on common sense (analogy to buying just about anything close to the top), but the fact that we already saw pretty much the same thing in bitcoin, dogecoin, and the USD Index at the top 3 years ago should be flashing a big red light even for the most bearish of USD bears and most bullish crypto bulls.Remember, early 2018 was also the moment when the stock market and PMs topped.The above indications are on top of myriads of other factors pointing to lower precious metals and mining stock prices – this is all much more important than forum posts – even very convincing ones.Please note that today’s volatility is somewhat expected - it’s Friday (options expire) and it’s also the final session of the month. Quite many people and entities might want to push prices and indices in their favor, so that options expire on their preferred side of their options’ strike prices. So, whatever happens today might easily be erased in early February.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Silver May Rally Above $39 On Range Breakout

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 29.01.2021 21:21
Nearly 6+ months ago, our research team highlighted a unique price range that appears to be repeating itself in Silver.  This price range consists of a $5.40 bullish or bearish price phase.  Using our 100% measured move techniques, we've seen silver move higher and lower by this range over the past 10+ months and, quite interestingly, the current sideways price range in Silver is almost exactly a $5.40 range. After a bit of research related to the explosive upside price move in June 2020, where Silver rallied from $17.75 to levels over $28.75 – an $11 Candle Body Range (nearly 2x the $5.40 range), our researcher team believes the next breakout move in Silver may be another 2x or 3x rally – ranging from an $11+ rally to a $16.50+ rally.  This suggests a potential upside price target in Silver near $39 to $45 if our research is correct.Potential Silver Blastoff Once Price Clears $30This Daily Silver Futures chart highlights the continued $5.40 range that has “bound” silver over the past 4+ months.  The peak in price, near $30 represents the high price level that would have to be breached if any breakout attempt is confirmed.  Initially, we expect to see the $28 (upper channel) level breached, then we need to see the $30 breached as the breakout move continues/confirms.The news that the Reddit group is targeting Silver, as one of the most heavily shorted markets on the planet, suggests we may see a very explosive move higher in the near future if enough pressure is put on the shorts to present a real short-squeeze.  The other interesting facet of this setup is that Silver has already initiated a bullish price phase while the global markets appear to be in a Depreciation phase.  My team and I have written about this in a previous research article entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals – Part II.If our research is accurate and correct, the combination of the Reddit targeting, extreme short positions, longer-term Depreciation cycle phases and the current Bullish Silver price phase may prompt a very big and explosive breakout move once Silver prices clear $30.Reddit Focuses Attention On Silver – What Next?The interesting component to all of this is the renewed focus on extremely heavily shorted symbols because of the Reddit group.  Silver was trading near the middle of the $5.40 price range and price was stalling/declining price to the sudden shift by the Reddit group.  Maybe this renewed focus in the Silver short positions focused the broader market into the unique setup that has continued in Silver over the past 12+ months – a rallying market in a Depreciation phase with a very heavy short interest.  It has all the makings of a potentially very big upside break move.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Recently, if you've been following my research, I have been expecting a shorter-term downward price trend in Silver – with a longer-term outlook still Bullish.  After reaching the peak of the channel in late December 2020, I expected Silver to move a bit lower before building enough momentum to attempt a breakout move. Now that a renewed focus on Silver has taken over, there is a very real potential that a breakout above $28~$30 is in the works – possibly initiating a very explosive upside trend.The last explosive upside move in Silver, from June 2020 to August 2020, only about 90 days, prompted an $11.50 to $12.50 rally (about 2x the $5.40 range).  This next upside breakout trend may see a similar, or larger, scale of a price advance – targeting $39 to $45 (or higher).In short, any breakout above $28 to $30 may prompt a very big upside price advance.  Any failure of this breakout attempt will likely prompt a downside price move to levels near $24 to $25.50 (again).  This renewed attention into Silver, one of the most heavily shorted commodities on the planet, may prove to be an incredible opportunity for traders – possibly pushing miners and other precious metals much higher over time.As a reminder, this increased volatility and price range will create some opportunity for euphoric enthusiasm by many traders.  Please don't get caught up in all of the hype.  This may be a once in a blue-moon setup in precious metals because of the renewed focus on Silver.  It may also prompt a big pullback move after any rally attempt.  Play this smart – don't get caught up in the hype.2021 is going to be full of these types of trend rotations and new market setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using my BAN strategy.  You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors right now in my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Don't miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you in determining what to buy, when to buy, and when to take profits. You will be kept fully informed of the market with my short pre-market report every morning along with the BAN Hotlist for those looking for more trades.Have a great weekend!
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Risk off sentiment caps off a volatile week

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.02.2021 07:32
EURUSD Back Near 1.2144 Resistance AreaThe euro currency has now posted back-to-back gains for two consecutive sessions. As a result, price action is trading back near the technical resistance area of 1.2144.However, price action remained somewhat mixed as the buyer still remains to the upside. A strong reversal of the resistance area near 1.2144 could potentially confirm the downside.For the moment, we expect the EURUSD to consolidate between the 1.2144 and 1.2050 levels. Further gains can only be expected if the common currency can close strongly above the 1.2177 level.The stochastics oscillator continues to remain rather subdued and points to a possible drop towards the 1.2050 technical support.GBPUSD Consolidates Within The Ascending Wedge PatternThe British pound Sterling continues to trade rather mixed albeit near the recent highs. The consolidation has formed the ascending wedge pattern which could potentially signal a correction lower upon a bearish breakout.On Friday, the currency pair managed to pull back from the recent loss only to give back the gains towards the end of the week.The stochastics oscillator remains trading flat. This suggests the sideways price action in the GBPUSD currency pair.As long as no new highs are forming, the GBPUSD currency pair is likely to eventually post a correction towards the 1.3500 level.Crude Oil Closes Almost Flat For The Third Consecutive WeekConsolidation in the crude oil markets continues to stretch into the third week. Price action continues to trade nearly flat for three weekly sessions so far.As a result, price action is firmly entrenched within the sideways range between 53.77 and 51.87.The flat trading comes amid concerns of the vaccine rollout which could potentially delay the global economic recovery. Price action has been repeatedly testing the 51.87 level of support which has held up so far.However, a breakdown below this level could potentially see a short-term correction on the horizon.We continue to maintain that the downside target remains near the 49.00 handle for the moment.Gold Gives Back Gains After Testing 1874 ResistanceThe precious metal attempted to post modest gains on Friday as price action tested the 1874 level of resistance.However, prices gave back the gains rather quickly intraday to settle back near the 1850 handle. Failure to break out above the 1874 level of resistance could signal a possible move lower.However, price action remains flat within 1874 and 1818 levels for the moment. Given the current positioning of the stochastics oscillator, we might expect to see prices pulling over and possibly testing the 1818 level of support.But, on a weekly basis, we see price action trading within the range from the previous week. As a result, a breakout is likely to occur in the medium term.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Has the “Stock Market Bubble” Started to Pop?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.02.2021 15:51
After what happened last week with beaten-down stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC), there are indeed signs of a bubble forming. While these stocks don’t necessarily reflect the broader market, I have been calling a downturn for weeks.Complacency is by far the most significant risk in the markets right now, along with overstretched valuations beyond the GameStop “stonks,” and the possible return of inflation if the Fed lets the GDP run hot like I think they will.According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.Complacency.I still think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven't seen one since last March. The manic moves of the past week excite me but greatly concern me.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Thus far, what has occurred in January could be the potential start of the correction I have been forecasting. A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.We could also finally be approaching BUY levels on many of the SELL and HOLD calls I’ve made the last few weeks.Outside of my BUY call on the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT), which has gained 10.12% since I made the call on 12-3, I called the Nasdaq and the Russell both overbought and foresaw last week’s downturn.I made the SELL call on the QQQ Nasdaq ETF 1-25, and since then, it has declined 4.13%. I made the SELL call on the Russell 2000 IWM ETF 12-16 anticipating this eventual pullback. The Russell is now at its lowest level since the beginning of the year declined 4.30% in the last week.I also called the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) a BUY on 12-3, and it has gained 8.33%.Meanwhile, I’ve called the Dow Jones a HOLD for the last two months, and since 12-3, it is practically flat and up 0.15%.I’m not highlighting these calls to brag or toot my own horn. I’m highlighting these calls to remind everyone to please be level headed during these manic times and to please understand that stocks don’t only go up. The market saw its worst week since October last week, and has now declined in two of the last three weeks. More could come in the short-term.While GameStop and AMC are exciting, understand the risks you’re taking and don’t follow the herd.On the other hand, do not run and hide from a market decline, and do not let this deter you from chasing your goals. The market has overheated, but it is still not quite a broad sector-specific bubble like it was back in 2000. Yes, there are sectors more overvalued than others. But as we saw last week it’s more stock-specific. People still forget that shares of Eastman Kodak skyrocketed by 1,481% in three days last July. The broader indices seem to have done just fine since then.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions, and wish you the best of luck.We’re all in this together! The S&P 500 May Be One More Pullback from a “BUY” Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXHow quickly things change.Before the start of last week, the S&P was hovering around a record-high. Its forward P/E ratio was the highest it’s been since the dot-com bust, and the RSI consistently approached overbought levels.Now the question is, how soon before it’s a BUY? The index declined over -3.3% last week and has fallen in two of the previous three weeks. The S&P is also an index that trades in a streaky manner and can rip off multiple-day win streaks and lose streaks.I said before that once the S&P approaches a 3600-level, that we can start talking about it as a BUY. There are short-term concerns, with long-term optimism. The S&P briefly dipped below 3700 on Friday, and the RSI is sitting around 43.25. To me, this keeps it at a HOLD, with maybe one or two pullbacks away from a BUY.What does worry me a bit is a week full of more earnings beats did not impress the index. Investors likely anticipated this. Remember- when the market usually gets what it expects, it’s usually a reason to sell more than buy.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD. You can definitely start “nibbling” though.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

How Will Silver’s (SLV) Recent Spike End?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.02.2021 16:11
When Joe Public buys shares during a wave of euphoria, they do it close to a market top or before the beginning of a decline. Looking at you, SLV!Silver rallied on Friday (Jan. 29), gold reversed its direction before the end of the day and so did miners, with the latter slightly underperforming gold. I wrote this before, and I’ll stress this once again today – the above is a perfectly bearish indication of an upcoming downturn in the precious metals market. This is not the first time it’s happening, and this combination of relative strengths worked reliably in the past. And we are not only just seeing that happening – we are seeing that at precisely the moment that is similar to previous patterns that were followed by sizable declines, which means that the relative bearish factors are even stronger.This also applies to the huge inflows to the SLV ETF that we just saw most recently. Let’s take a look below.Figure 1The inflows were huge, which means that a lot of capital poured into this particular silver ETF . No wonder – it was very popular among Reddit (and other forums) participants last week. Naturally, these investors are – in general – not professionals and they are not institutions either. They are part of the “investment public”, which tends to buy massively close to market tops and/or before important price declines.This indication might work on an immediate basis, but it could also work on a near-term basis – it depends on other circumstances. Did this work previously? Let’s check – after all, there were two other cases when we saw big spikes in SLV inflows – at the end of 2007 and at the beginning of 2013.What did silver do back then? I marked those situations with blue, vertical lines on the chart below.Figure 2The beginning of 2013 was when silver was not only already after its top, but was also in the final part of the back-and-forth trading that we saw before the bigger declines in that year.In late 2007, silver was still rallying, but it topped soon after that and subsequently plunged. At the 2008 bottom, silver was well below the levels at which the huge SLV inflows occurred.Consequently, the spike in inflows is not a bullish sign. It’s a major bearish sign for the medium term, especially knowing that it was the investment public that was making the purchases.Also, please note that the late-2007 spike wasn’t preceded by sizable inflows, but both the early 2013 and 2021 spikes were. Also, back in 2013, silver was already after a major top (just like right now) while in early 2007 it was breaking to new highs.As of now, silver just broke to new highs, but since this move is not confirmed yet, it seems that the current situation is still a bit more similar to what we saw in 2013 than in 2007. Therefore, the scenario in which we don’t have to wait long for silver’s slide is slightly more probable.The current volatility in silver suggests that the price moves are likely to be quick in both directions, so when the white metal tops it might be difficult to get out of one’s long position at prices that were better than one’s entry prices (provided that one joined the current sharp run-up).Especially since stocks just declined visibly and confirmed the breakdown below the rising support line in terms of three consecutive trading days, a weekly close, and a monthly close.Figure 3Stocks have also invalidated their breakout above their rising red support/resistance line. And it all caused the RSI to form a double-top near the 70 level, which preceded the two biggest price declines in the previous years.Figure 4It seems that while the bigger investors head for the hills, the individual public continues to focus on Gamestop and its recent gains. However, remember that they have to cash in above their entry price to make a profit, which is not that probable.The most important detail that we saw on Friday was the relatively low volume, on which Gamestop rallied. The buying power seems to be drying up and it seems that it won’t be long before everyone that wanted to buy, will already be “in”. And then, the price will start to slide as that’s what it simply does when there are no buyers and no sellers. Afterwards, a part of the public will sell, further adding to the selling pressure, which will see more declines, and so on. And as the final stock buyers turn into sellers, the top in stocks could be in.If stocks slide further shortly, it will be particularly bearish for silver and mining stocks , which means that those who bought yesterday based on forum messages, etc., would be likely to find themselves at a loss relatively soon. This, in turn, means that the decline could be quite volatile.Figure 5On a short-term basis, silver showed strength – also today, when it rallied slightly above the early-September high. Perhaps the final part of those who might have been inclined to buy based on the “ silver manipulation ” narrative and the forum encouragements in general, have decided to make their purchases over the weekend, and we’re seeing the result in today’s pre-market trading.This, coupled with the miners’ relative weakness means that the bearish outlook remains intact. If it “feels” that the precious metals market is about take off, but the analysis says otherwise (please remember about the first chart from today’s analysis), then it’s very likely that the PMs are topping. That’s what people see and “feel” at the top.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Expectations for Silver given the GameStop price action and the Reddit Revolution

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 01.02.2021 21:40
Near the end of 2020, my research team identified trends, pullbacks, and overall upward/downward trends in US major markets as well as those for Gold and Silver.  It is time we revisited these early 2021 predictions in relation to what is happening in the markets currently. You can revisit our original publication entitled What To Expect in 2021 Part II - Gold, Silver, and SPY.At the time we made these predictions, we were unaware of the global phenomenon, the Reddit #wallstreetbets movement, that was taking place.  Our expectations are based on our advanced predictive modeling system and what it sees as the highest probability outcome for price.  The recent news that this Reddit group has targeted a number of symbols (GME, AMC, BB, amongst others), as well as SILVER, may change the dynamics/liquidity of the markets very quickly.What we are witnessing is the incredible strength of the retail trader when they act in a “pack-form”.  The retail traders of the world, using a social media platform, have found new strength as the global markets continue to struggle with COVID-19 and institutional weakness. In a way, these retail traders are focusing on an institutionally authorized “exploit”, like a game exploit, where short-sellers have been permitted to overrun many smaller traders and companies over the past decade or so – ever since the “Uptick Rule” was removed.  This has created an environment where excessive risks were allowed by many institutions as short sellers were able to enter short positions far in excess of the floating shares available.  With extreme leverage in place, these positions were ticking time-bombs waiting to explode. And then along comes the Reddit group – hungry, happy, and en mass.  They identify this structural weakness, which was legally allowed to happen, and begin their “autist wave” of buying these heavily shorted symbols.  Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Gamestop became a “shot across the bow” for these hedge funds and has sent a liquidity ripple across the global markets.  Is the financial system at risk because of excessive leverage, derivatives, and institutional manipulation?  What would it take to completely disrupt these hedge funds and what are the consequences of these short-squeeze runs?  Is this issue bigger than many people expect?  Could it turn into a “liquidity trap”?These are all questions that are certainly going to be answered over the next 6+ months and no one really has a true understanding of how the “deleveraging process” will take place.  If push comes to shove and institutional shorts are forced into excessive losses, then we may see a bigger corrective trend setup in 2021 as a result of this capital/liquidity trap that has sprung.Now, before we continue to review some of our 2021 expectations, let's review a couple of important charts...SPY Must Hold Above SupportThe following Daily SPY chart highlights the major support channel originating from the March 2020 lows.  If this channel is breached, we may begin a deeper downside trend that could align with a volatility/liquidity trap event.  Losses generated by these excessive, leveraged, short positions will prompt firms to pull profits from other symbols/sectors.  This wave of volatility may be just starting.Silver Targets $55 Or HigherSilver has recently been targeted by the Reddit group as one of the most heavily shorted precious metals on the planet.  Currently, silver has rallied above $30 in early trading on Monday, February 1, but has come down closer to the opening (which gapped significantly).  If Silver rallies above $35 and continues to trend, $50 to $55 is the next target level.  After that level is reached, we move into uncharted territory (above $55) and the sky's the limit for Silver and Gold.revisiting our 2021 ExpectationsNow, onto our 2021 Expectations and how this new dynamic of volatility and liquidity may change things. If the increased volatility and liquidity issue persists beyond February 2021, we would expect the global markets to begin to immediately reflect a transition away from excessive risks and leverage.  This would take place by off-loading positions in at-risk and in-profit trades throughout the world to position portfolios in a means to mitigate 3x+ std deviation risks.  This deleveraging process may prompt a huge upside move in precious metals because any global deleveraging event, if it aligns with a moderate price correction event, may push institutions to urgently address leverage issues.  This urgency, in combination with the retail trader revolt, may prompt an excessive liquidity trap in certain sectors/symbols – almost like a “flash-rally” event.Overall, we believe the global markets will settle back into our expected 2021 ranges – although Gold and Silver may rally far beyond our upside 2021 expectations if the Reddit group continue to push Silver higher like they did with Gamestop.  So, at this point, be prepared for massive volatility ranges and continued upside price trends in Gold and Silver while the markets address these global institutional and leverage issues.What this means for traders is that we should expect to see some really big trends through almost all of 2021.  Most importantly, we will end up with more rational price trends and a potentially reduced leverage environment for many sectors and symbols.  This should prompt various market sectors to initiate or resume trends as capital is put to work in sectors that have a stronger growth potential over the next few years.2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using my BAN strategy.  You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors yourself with no proprietary indicators or algorithms just by taking my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don't have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you. In addition to trade alerts that can be entered into at the end of the day or the following morning, subscribers also receive a 7-10 minute video every morning that walks you through the charts of all the major asset classes. For traders that want more trading than our 20-25 alerts per year, we provide our BAN Trader Pro subscribers with our BAN Hotlist of ETFs that is updated each day.Happy trading!
Bitcoin - Consolidation brings new opportunities

Bitcoin - Consolidation brings new opportunities

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 02.02.2021 08:33
ReviewSource: Messari December 31st, 2020After a massive rally from the beginning of October, Bitcoin almost reached prices around US$20,000 on December 1st. Despite a heavily overbought situation, the bulls only needed a two-week breather. The successful breakout immediately caused a further acceleration, so that bitcoin prices continued to explode until January 8th 2021 and were able to rise to almost US$42,000. Bitcoin had thus increased more than tenfold in less than 10 months since the Corona crash! Looking at 2020 as a whole, Bitcoin pretty much outperformed everything, gaining 318%.Source: Dan Held on TwitterOver the last three weeks, however, there was, not surprisingly, a wave of profit-taking hitting the bitcoin market. Hence, prices retraced all the way back down toward just under US$29,000. This rapid correction represented a drop of 31% in just 14 days. In the big picture, however, this is not unusual. Instead, bitcoin has seen countless corrective price moves like this over the past 10 years. In the last bull market between autumn 2015 and December 2017, there were a total of six sharp pullbacks, all of which amounted to sell offs between 29% and 38%.Source: Dan Tapiero on TwitterIn the bigger picture however, volatility is still relatively low. Rather, the relative volatility indicates that the range of fluctuation is only just slowly beginning to rise again and should spike towards the later stages during the course of this current bull market.Overall, bitcoin has been in a new bull market since the Corona Crash in March 2020 and is likely to head for much higher price regions in the coming 10 to 24 months. Daily fluctuations of US$10,000 and more will then become increasingly common.Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith the breakout above the all-time high around US$20,000 on December 16th, 2020, the Bitcoin rally that had been underway since March 2020 already accelerated once again significantly. Although the market was already heavily overbought on all timeframes, bitcoin doubled within the following four weeks and reached a new all-time high at around US$42,000 on January 8th, 2021. After such a price explosion, it takes time to digest this strong rise. The pullback towards and slightly below US$29,000 is therefore perfectly normal and healthy.From the perspective of the weekly chart, however, there are no clear signs for an end of that correction yet. Looking at the “old” support zones and the overbought stochastic oscillator, a return to the breakout level around US$20,000 would be quite conceivable. Beyond that, there are two long-term upward trend lines that could also act as possible targets on the downside.Using the classic Fibonacci retracements from the low at US$3,850 to the recent high at US$42,000, the 38.2% retracement at US$27,425 would be the minimum correction target. If bitcoin can continue to hold above this retracement, this would be an extremely bullish sign of strength. A first retest of the recent lows at US$29,000 was also successful and thus far created a nice double low which might already have marked the turning point. However, prices below those lows would confirm a larger and deeper type of correction. Prices around US$27,500 and lower towards US$20,000 to US$22,000 would then become increasingly likely.However, since bitcoin is undoubtedly in an established bull market and in an overarching uptrend, the surprises are generally happening to the upside. Therefore, the only thing to note here is that new prices above US$40,000 would probably signal a continuation of the steep rally. In this case, prices around the next psychological level at US$50,000 should follow quickly.To summarize the weekly chart remains bullish above US$20,000. At the same time, there are still no signals for an end to the recently started pullback. In view of the relatively fresh stochastic sell signal, there is a distinct possibility that the correction of the last four weeks could extend significantly. However, if the bulls can keep the prices above US$29,000, the rally can continue at any time.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the correction of the last three weeks had created a pretty oversold situation and thus a low-risk entry opportunity. Now that bitcoin quickly recovered from those lows around US$29,000, the good low-risk set up is certainly gone. Especially since a third attack pullback US$29,000 would now have to be interpreted as weakness.But although the 200-day moving average (US$16,738) as well as the established support zone at US$20,000 are far away from current pricing around US$34,000, the setup looks promising. Based on the principle that a trend in motion is more likely to continue than to suddenly turn around, it is important to look for entry opportunities on the long side only (“buy the dip”). Bitcoin now has to surpass its recent high above US$38,600 to establish a short-term series of higher lows and higher highs. This would shift the daily chart clearly back into bullish territory.Overall, the daily chart is coming out of an oversold setup recovering quickly, but somehow is still stuck in a downtrend short-term. However, bitcoin has now been trading around and above USD 30,000 for more than four weeks already. This means that a base is being formed from which the rally should continue rather sooner than later.Sentiment Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesBitcoin Optix as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe quantitative sentiment indicator “Bitcoin Optix” signaled a short-term exaggeration at the end of December and then especially at the beginning of January. However, the sharp pullback in the order of 31% completely cooled down any excessive optimism and even created a small panic among the weak hands in the short term.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of February 1st, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the other hand, continues to measure an increased level of greed in the entire crypto sector. However, such conditions did persist for many months in the past.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn a long-term comparison, however, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also declined significantly and currently reflects a rather balanced sentiment picture.Overall, the overly optimistic sentiment has been cleared up surprisingly quickly due to the price decline from US$42,000 down to US$29,000. Hence, nothing stands in the way of a continuation of the rally from a sentiment perspective. Seasonality Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunities –Bitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, bitcoin has been most often moving sideways from mid o January until mid-April. Accordingly, the recently started correction could well drag on for at least a few more weeks.Bitcoin seasonality in bull market years. Source: SeasonaxHowever, if we only use the price development in bull market years, the data set shrinks to the years 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017. But at the same time, it becomes clear that in these years bitcoin always found an important low between mid-January and mid-February.Overall, one would be well advised not to expect any exaggerated price explosions in the coming weeks. Statistically, these tend to occur in the months of April to June and October to December. However, the seasonal outlook for the next one to two months is not really unfavorable either.Sound-money: Bitcoin vs. GoldSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of January 25th, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith current prices of US$33,650 for one bitcoin and US$1,864 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold ratio is currently around 18.05, i.e., you currently have to pay more than 18 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. In other words, one troy ounce of gold currently costs only 0.055 bitcoin.Goldbug´s Achilles Heel, Source Midas Touch Consulting January 25th, 2021.This means that bitcoin´s outperformance against gold has clearly intensified in the past two months. An end to this major trend is not in sight. Quite the contrary, despite possible short-term fluctuations and countertrend moves, gold and silver are more likely to lose further against bitcoin.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and of 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to Bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is normally also invested in equities and real estate, more than 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile Bitcoin is already a lot!Opposites compliment. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin you have a complimentary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro OutlookSource: Investing.comWith the inauguration of Joe Biden, the political circumstances in the USA have shifted significantly, but the loose monetary policy of the last twenty years is likely to continue and intensify significantly. The prices for gold and silver, as well as for bitcoin, will therefore continue to be driven upwards in the medium term by the constant expansion of the money supply.US Total Debt, © Holger Zschaepitz. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 20. Januar 2021The monetary policy, backed by nothing but the blind trust of the citizens, had already led to an unprecedented debt orgy in the USA since the end of the gold standard in 1971. The record-high US national debt was further exacerbated by the Corona crisis in 2020 and is now rising parabolically. The same applies to pretty much all other countries and currency zones on our planet.Global Stock Market Cap, © Holger Zschaepitz.. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 24. Januar 2021Driven by the constant currency creation, the market capitalization of global stock markets therefore continues to rise. It is important to realize that the stock markets no longer reflect the real economy as they used to. The only thing that matters is the constant expansion of liquidity via central bank balance sheets.Source: Bitcoin ResourcesThe unregulated and decentralized Bitcoin is therefore increasingly a thorn in the side of central bankers and politicians. After all, the irresponsible central bank policy can be recognized quite easily here. One can even say that in view of Bitcoin prices above US$30,000, the hyper-inflationary tendencies of fiat currencies are already becoming visible here. Whereas in the gold market one can always intervene in a depressing way on prices via so-called paper gold, the short-selling attacks on the Bitcoin markets are collapsing like a soufflé due to the digital scarcity. The decentralized structure of bitcoin is also a phenomenon that the technocrats will not be able to deal with, even with a ban.However, we have to assume that in the coming months or years there will be a concentrated attack on bitcoin by central bankers and politicians. However, the more institutional capital is invested in Bitcoin, the more difficult this undertaking will be.Source: Flipside CryptoA real point of criticism, on the other hand, is the extremely unbalanced distribution of the Bitcoins mined so far. Slightly more than 2% of the wallets hold 95% of the Bitcoins. This threatens to create a new power structure that can manipulate Bitcoin prices in its favor at will.Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesSource: Messari December 28th, 2020Bitcoin is undoubtedly in the middle of a new bull market. The final top has not yet been reached by a long shot. Prices around US$100,000 and possibly even above US$300,000 are quite conceivable in the next 10 to 24 months. The main drivers will be an institutional buying spree, as these institutional investors will come under an increasing pressure due to rising prices.Of course, there will be some brutal pullbacks on the way to higher prices. To be able to profit from this bull market, you need to be patient. And you really need to have internalized the so-called “Hodl” strategy.In summary, bitcoin is consolidating at high level trying to build a new base. This consolidation may well last a few more weeks and could also bring lower prices. More likely, however, is a continuation of the rally towards US$50,000 in the near future already.Source: Regard NewsAlso, it more an more smells like “altcoin season”. Bitcoin prices have already doubled from the old all-time high. Then, in the last four weeks, Ethereum also reached its December 2017 high around US$1,400. In the next phase, Ethereum should outperform Bitcoin. Afterwards, the smaller altcoins will explode. This time, the highflyers are likely to be in the booming DeFi sector. However, anyone who wants to play along here has to practice tough risk management and take profits regularly and quickly.Analysis sponsored and initially published on January 26th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

USD rises to a two-week high

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.02.2021 08:39
Euro Resumes Slide, After A Two-Day GainThe euro currency is trading weaker on Monday following two daily sessions of gains previously. Price action remains confined below the 1.2144 level of resistance.Given the current pace of declines, the EURUSD currency pair is likely to test the 1.2050 level of support more firmly.We expect the support level near 1.2050 to hold up for the moment. As a result, the EURUSD could maintain a sideways range within 1.2144 and 1.2050 levels.The stochastics oscillator is currently moving closer to the oversold levels. Therefore, we could expect to see prices rebounding off the 1.2050 handle.In the unlikely event that the EURUSD loses the 1.2050 support, we could expect to see a larger correction down to 1.1900.GBPUSD Testing The Lower Trend-LineThe British pound sterling is also on track to post declines following a period of consolidation since last week.Price action is currently testing the lower trendline of the ascending wedge pattern. A continuation to the downside could potentially open the way for the GBPUSD to test the 1.3500 level of support.However, for this to materialize, the GBPUSD will need to post a convincing breakdown lower.Given that price action closed rather flat on a weekly basis, a bearish close this week could potentially strengthen the downside bias.This could mean that the cable could be looking to post further declines in the medium-term outlook.Crude Oil Bounces Off Lower End Of The RangeWTI crude oil prices are posting modest gains rising over 1% on Monday. This comes as prices briefly slipped below the lower end of the range near 51.87.Despite the current pace of gains, oil prices remain stuck within the range between 53.77 and 51.87. Only a strong breakout from this level will potentially confirm further direction in the commodity.For the moment, the continuation to the upside could see the 53.77 level being tested.On a weekly basis, we see that oil prices are trading flat for three consecutive weeks so far.The stochastics oscillator is currently moving out from the oversold levels and gives support to the upside bounce.Gold Prices Struggle To Breakout Above 1874The precious metal continues to trade flat amid the US dollar strengthening. While prices have managed to stay afloat above the 1850 level of support, the upper resistance level near 1874 is proving hard to break.As a result, gold prices remain caught within the 1874 and 1850 levels for the moment. The stochastics oscillator also signals the rather choppy movement within the said levels.Price action on the higher chart timeframes also continues to remain mixed. As a result, we could expect to see gold prices staying below the 1874 level for becoming few sessions.The bias still remains to the downside, however, a swing low is being formed near the 1835 level.A close below this level will potentially open the way for gold prices to retest the lower support near 1817.79.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

2021 Should See Improved Gold Demand

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.02.2021 16:16
The World Gold Council recently published two interesting reports. Gold demand plunged in 2020, but 2021 should be positive for the yellow metal.On Thursday (January 28), the WGC published its newest report about gold demand trends: Gold Demand Trends Full Year and Q4 2020 . The key message of this publication is that the gold demand of 783.4 tons (excluding over-the-counter activity) in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 28 percent lower year-over-year. As a result, it was the weakest quarter since the midst of the Great Recession in Q2 2008. The weak quarter made the whole year quite disappointing, as the annual gold demand in 2020 dropped by 14 percent to only 3,675.6 tons, making it the lowest level of demand since 2009 .The main driver of this decline was the COVID-19 pandemic, that triggered the Great Lockdown and the subsequent surge in gold prices. In consequence, jewelry demand plunged 34 percent to 1,411.6 tons, the lowest annual level on record. It shows that – contrary to popular opinion – consumers are price takers, not price setters, in the precious metals market.So, what is really interesting for me is that the investment demand, the true driver of gold prices, grew 40 percent to a record annual high of 1,773.2 tons . Although there was a slight increase in bar and coin investment, the surge in investment demand was caused mainly by the great inflow into global gold-backed ETFs , whose holdings grew by 877.1 tons last year, a record level.These inflows were, of course, fueled by the spread of the coronavirus and the fiscal and monetary policies that followed in response. Gold was actually one of the best performing major assets in 2020 amid high uncertainty and low real interest rates . Importantly, there were net outflows from the gold ETFs in the Q4, but they were concentrated in November, so the worst may be behind us.When it comes to other categories, the central banks added a net 273 tons in 2020, the lowest level since 2010, as some central banks sold gold amid recession to obtain liquidity. It confirms gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and portfolio-diversifier . Indeed, gold had one of the lowest drawdowns during 2020, reducing investors’ losses. The technology demand fell seven percent in the last year to 301.9 tons due to the economic disruptions of the pandemic . Total supply fell four percent to 4,633 tons, the first annual decline since 2017, as the pandemic disrupted mine production.The WGC’s demand report is, as always, interesting, but it should be taken with a pinch of salt . The reason is that the WGC wrongly defines the demand and supply for gold, narrowing it to the annual supply and its use, and omitting the great bulk of transactions in the gold market. In consequence, the report contradicts simple economic logic. According to the WGC, gold supply fell four percent, while gold demand declined 14 percent – but the average yearly price of gold gained 27 percent (see the chart below)! Whoa, when I learnt economics, the drop in demand (higher than the decrease in supply) was pushing the prices down!Implications for GoldBut let’s leave the past and now focus on the future! In January 2021, the WGC also published its gold outlook for the new year . Not surprisingly, the industry organization is generally bullish , but it notices the headwinds as well . According to the WGC, the hope of economic recovery and easy money will increase the risk appetite, creating downward pressure on gold prices.However, the WGC believes that the low interest rates and potential portfolio risks will support the investment demand for the yellow metal. In particular, ballooning fiscal deficits , the growing money supply and the possibility of higher inflation and the risk of the stock market correction (who knows, maybe the GameStop saga will trigger some broader bearish implications?!) should support gold prices.The WGC’s conclusion turns out to be similar to my own 2021 outlook for gold: that it could be a positive year for the yellow metal, but less so than 2020 – at least under the condition that the global economy will experience a steady recovery without too much inflationary pressure. But inflation may arrive, ending the era of the Goldilocks economy – and possibly starting the year of gold. Only time will tell!If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Correction in Stocks Almost Over While Gold Is Basing

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.02.2021 16:30
In line with expectations and probabilities, the stock bulls returned, and I closed Friday initiated long position for a solid 40-point gain in S&P 500! All right, but are the bulls as strong as might seem from looking at this week‘s price performance? Such were my yesterday‘s words: (…) is this the dreaded sizable correction start, or the general February weakness I warned about a week ago? I‘m still calling for the S&P 500 to be in a bullish uptrend this quarter and next, though I‘m not looking for as spectacular gains as in the 2020 rebound. That‘s still my call. Fears from the Fed talking taper contours, GameStop and silver squeeze are taking a back seat to the realities of leading economic indicators rising, stimulus coming, and the central bank more than willing to mop it up. Commodities are red hot, leading precious metals, and inflation will rear its ugly head this year for sure. The momentary dollar resilience which I called both preceding Mondays to happen, will give way to much lower values. Twin deficits are a curse. Such were my observations on gold – please read yesterday‘s extensive analysis. It‘s one of the most important ones written thus far on gold: (…) I don‘t see gold plunging to any dramatic number such as $1,700 but given that the dollar looks to have stabilized for now, and may even attempt a modest and brief rally from here, gold may get again under corresponding (and weak) pressure – should the silver squeeze be defeated. After the margin raise, it is certainly on the defensive now. Yet I see encouraging signs for the new precious metals upleg to emerge (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook I laid out the case clearly on Friday as to why we‘re witnessing another downswing lacking internal balance. We didn‘t have to wait long for the recovery from options expiry plunge, yet the volume leaves a little to be desired. Wasn‘t weak really, just Monday‘s regular, lower volume. Lower volume days can get challenged. I would prefer to see follow through in price advance coupled with a volume reading I could interpret positively so as to be able to call this correction as fully over. Credit Markets & Risk Metrics Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – are trading at their local lows, neither rising nor breaking below – given the bullish price action in S&P 500, I treat their short-term underperformance as a watchout. Volatility is still elevated, yet calming down – slowly but surely.That‘s pointing out we‘re in the latter stages of the correction. The put/call ratio has retreated again, reflecting my yesterday‘s point that the fear in the markets is in a generally declining trend. Both moving averages are still falling, and the spike didn‘t reach the pre-elections and early September peaks either. Still no change in sentiment, and we‘re well on the preceding path marking further stock market gains. Shining Light on Gold The king of metals is still ill positioned to keep the silver short squeeze gains. Yes, I am not trusting the daily indicators one bit, and look instead at the lower volume and repeated inability to keep intraday gains. This is the sign of an approaching upleg in the precious metals – miners rebounding relative to gold after preceding breakdown. Should the mining companies keep their relative gains, that would be encouraging for the whole sector. What if the stock market though puts the carefully laid plans to rest? The above chart shows that there has been in recent months no clear relationship either way and interconnectedness of reaction between the two assets. Let‘s stay objective and don‘t succumb to the plunge in stocks fear mongering. The gold to silver ratio is similarly to the $HUI:$GOLD ratio showing that the tide in precious metals is turning, and the time for the bears is running up. I like the fact that love trade is starting to kick in as opposed to fear trade. Love trade, that means rising preference for gold because the economy is doing better, while fear trade is about hiding in the bunker. On one hand, gold is vulnerable to rising (long-term Treasury) yields, and it‘s also lagging behind the commodity complex. It‘s also trading with the negative correlation to the dollar, which is set to put up a some fight in the short run again – please see my yesterday‘s extensive gold market analysis bring proof for these assertions as these form the short-term watchouts for the gold bulls. From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hi Monica, I wanted to say a big thank you for responding to my question last week which I did find reassuring. Little did we see what a week we would have to follow hey, especially in silver. I know that it has to cross the Rubicon at $30 and hold but I would like to get your observations. Can silver get going now (you thought Spring more likely) I also like platinum and wondered what you see there and finally can gold shuffle of its winter blues sooner rather than later. A: Always welcome – it‘s common knowledge that I love to engage in discussion with readers and everyone concerned. I called for gold to get going through spring, and now with WallStreetBets, silver has sprung to life. Platinum I see as notoriously lagging behind, and its catalyst demand in a challenged market is one of the fundamental culprits – jewellery demand won‘t save it. Palladium has much better prospects, not to discuss the wild swings in rhodium to get an idea what PGMs can deliver. Gold is still within its basing pattern, and unless it attracts the attention of internet crowd (see my yesterday‘s reply on how to play the silver squeeze), will take its time in breaking higher. Look at the gold-silver ratio – it‘s the white metal‘s turn to deliver stronger returns now, which is in line with the economic recovery underway (silver is an industrial metal, too). Summary The stock market recovered, and looks set to digest today‘s premarket gains on top of Monday‘s ones, signifying that the correction is in its latter stages. Credit market recovery is a missing piece of the puzzle. Gold though isn‘t out of the woods yet in the short run, but I see its medium-term bullish case getting stronger even as it remains rangebound for now. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals. * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Dollar Rises to a Two-Month High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.02.2021 08:06
EURUSD Touches Down To 1.2050 Level Of Support The euro currency finally fell to the support level of 1.2050, testing the level more firmly. While price action is trading below this level, we could expect to see some consolidating taking place.The Stochastics oscillator is also firmly in the oversold level, it supports the possibility of price action consolidation near this level.However, if the bearish momentum continues, then the euro currency is likely to extend declines further.The next main support level is near 1.1900. However, if resistance forms near the 1.2050 level, the declines can be confirmed.GBPUSD Breaks Down From Ascending Wedge The British pound sterling is extending declines after losing the support from the trendline of the ascending wedge pattern.With price action now clearing the ascending wedge pattern, further downside is likely.As the Stochastics oscillator is now near the oversold level, we could expect to see a rebound in the near term. This could see a short term retracement back to the breakout level once again.To the downside, price action is likely to find support near the Jan 26 swing lows of 1.3610. A break down below this level will confirm further declines to the 1.3500 level of support.WTI Crude Oil Rises To A One-Year High Crude oil price finally broke out from the range it has been in for nearly three weeks. The strong upside breakout pushed the commodity toward a new one-year high.A pullback is likely to occur in the near term toward the upper range near 53.77. Price action will need to break out strongly above the 55.00 level in order to maintain the upside.Given the current momentum, the downside looks a bit limited for the moment.However, this could change if oil prices lose the 53.77 support level. It would once again put price action back within the sideways range.Gold Prices Slip Below 1850 Technical Support The precious metal broke past the 1850 level of support on Tuesday.The declines come as price action was consolidating between the 1850 and 1874 levels. If the current pace of decline continues, then we expect to see a move to the 1817.80 level of support once again.The Stochastics oscillator is moving closer to the oversold levels. Therefore, the support area near 1874 is likely to find support once again.This will keep prices supported above this level for the near term.Given the current momentum, the precious metal is unlikely to breakout above the 1874 level of resistance.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Bitcoin profits through quad exit strategy

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.02.2021 11:23
We use quad exits to honor the principle of “Choices.” Our approach is an “all in” system with a high expectancy of immediate profits based on the action-reaction principle. We are contrarians and are fading moves. As such, we exit half of the position shortly after entry for small gains to mitigate risk. Then we take another 25% off the position on our first target and another 25% on our 2nd final target.Here are the significant advantages of the Quad Exit Strategy: It is typically getting more and more stressful for the mind through increased fear that gained profits might disappear. The quad exit supplements by making you emotionally an instant winner on your first exit.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Risk taken out before the breakout:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of February 1st, 2021The principle is that the more extended a move, the more extensive the possible snap back to the mean. Fear of missing out on profits tends for amateur traders to either make a tight stop, which takes them out or worse, they use a stop somewhat in the middle, taking quite big profits away and still getting stopped out. Principle-based though is to have either an extensive stop or take a profit target. However, both are very hard to do due to our human psychology. With the Quad Exit Strategy, you erase these hardships. You exit with half to mitigate risk and create a psychological balance following the instinct to cash in. Now you have two segments of each 25% of the total position size still left to be very flexible in maneuvering.The daily chart above shows the various points of interest within a trade sequence. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Volume analysis supportive of runner success:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2021In our personal experience, after the second exit with yet another profit booked, one is very much at ease to let the runner (= the last 25% of the position size) do what it needs to do: RUN!With price sitting right on a high volume analysis support node as seen on the weekly chart above, it’s survival has a good chance. Even if the trend continuation should fail it will get stopped out at break even entry levels and we still took profits on 75% of our original position size.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin profits through Quad exit strategy:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2021.The large time frame chart shows supportive of the trend. With a healthy Fibonacci retracement of .618%, the odds for trend continuation are in favor.Of course, no one knows when a trend is over, but you don’t have to worry using the Quad Exit Strategy.Bitcoin profits through Quad Exit Strategy:Typically, one is glued to the screen when prices go into one’s favor with a biased emotional emphasis on up and downticks. With the Quad Exit Strategy however, you have an emotionally balanced mindset since 75% of the positions are successfully cashed in already. Now you can apply reliable technical analysis for the runner part. That means evaluating how much risk you are willing to take for this position part versus how likely the projections are for it to go further. You can do this unbiased and with a fresh mind. It also allows for wide and accurate stop placement and makes you see the market for what it truly is. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

GameStocks - Fun While It Lasted..

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.02.2021 15:45
So how about GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC)? That Silver short-squeeze? Fighting the man? That was fun while it lasted.I don't want to lecture anyone or say that I told you so. During one of my newsletters last week, I even said that I tip my hat to anyone who profited from this—all the respect in the world.Me personally, though, I would never trade like this. Monday (Feb. 1) and Tuesday's market (Feb. 2) was nothing more than a reality check. GameStop's stock has lost nearly half of its value, and other Reddit darlings like AMC, Blackberry (BB), Koss (KOSS), and Silver (SLV) tanked.Stocks don't go up forever.Stonks especially don’t.Who knows, maybe the party's not over. But I think the plummet in the Reddit stocks was bound to happen. Bubbles always eventually pop.The market seems happy that the earth is back on its axis in stockland. The indices have recovered nearly all of last week's losses already.I didn't call the GameStop short-squeeze, but I had called last week's downturn for a while. The recovery so far this week wasn't entirely surprising either.Be that as it may, I remain concerned about complacency in the markets and overstretched valuations, plus the potential return of inflation. But the breather last week was needed and brought the indices to less overbought levels.Generally, investors and analysts are bullish these days. According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.We have still not declined 10% from the record highs- the minimum needed for a correction. Although the market needed last week's downturn, we're once again mostly right where we were several days ago.I know what you’re thinking. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are the latest companies to crush their earnings estimates, how could we possibly have a correction?For one, there are still things to be concerned about from a public health and economic perspective.We are also long overdue for one. We haven't seen one since last March. Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.We're no longer as close to those same BUY levels as we were after market close on Friday. But we're not quite at SELL again, and I still think we're a few pullbacks away from making more BUY calls with conviction. In other words, welcome to no man's land.In my last newsletter, I cautioned against making manic moves and trading with emotions. We saw our worst week since October last week and declined in two of the previous three. Much of that was due to the GameStops and AMCs freaking out Wall Streeters. But I reminded you then, and I'll remind you again. Shares of Eastman Kodak surged by 1,481% in three days last July, and the broader market seems to have done just fine since then.Do not let the noise deter you from your goals. My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.We're all in this together! Is It Safe to Buy Tech Again?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPEarnings season for tech stocks hit record numbers last week, and is set to continue this week with Amazon and Alphabet clobbering estimates. Usually, when investors get what they expect, it’s more of a reason to sell rather than buy.But the Nasdaq so far this week has already recovered almost all of last week’s losses, and then some.I’m not ready to call this a BUY though, or recommend buying into momentum. There are still concerns. Tech valuations, especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. SPACs don’t help either. The Nasdaq last week declined to a more "normal" level, and in the span of two days, hit an RSI approaching 63 again.Last week's decline was needed, but there are still echoes of the dot-com bubble 20-years ago. I remain bullish on earnings and tech sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021, but please monitor the RSI.The RSI is how I have called the Nasdaq since December. While an overbought or oversold RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, it has with the Nasdaq.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again around Christmas time. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.When I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.Before the Nasdaq exceeded an RSI over 73 prior to January 25th, I switched my call back to SELL, and the QQQ promptly declined 4.13% for the week.The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.I still like tech and am bullish for 2021. But for now, I'm going to stay conservative and say HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

EUR and Silver: Going Down a One-Way Street

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.02.2021 17:25
Since the precious metals like to ride along with the EUR/USD, and the latest Eurozone data looks grim, what are the implications for the PMs?Just when everyone and their brother thought that silver was going straight to the moon… it plunged. And that’s not the end of the decline.Figure 1 – COMEX Silver FuturesI previously emphasized that silver’s volatile upswing is likely just temporary, and I discussed the Kondratiev cycle which implies much higher gold prices but not necessarily right away, because the value of cash (USD) would be likely to soar as well. The latter would likely trigger a temporary slide in gold – and silver.Well, was silver’s rally just temporary?This seems to have been the case. The white metal declined back below not only the 2020 highs, but also back below this year’s early high. Please remember that invalidations of breakouts have immediately bearish implications and we just saw more than one in case of silver.So far today (Feb. 3), silver is quiet, but let’s keep in mind that back in September, it took only a few sessions for the white precious metal to move from approximately the current price levels to about $22.Will silver slide as much shortly? This is quite likely, although the downswing doesn’t have to be as quick as it was in September.Terms like the silver shortage , the size of the silver market and silver manipulation became incredibly popular in the last couple of days, which - together with huge SLV volume, and this ETF’s inflows - confirms the dramatic increase in interest in this particular market. This is exactly what happens close to market tops: silver steals the spotlight while mining stocks are weak. I’ve seen this countless times , and in most cases, it was accompanied by multiple voices of people “feeling” that the silver market is about to explode. For example, please consider what happened in early September 2020 on both (above and below) charts. Silver jumped and almost reached its August 2020 high, while the GDX was unable to rally even to (let alone above) its mid-August high.Don’t get me wrong, I think that silver will soar in the following years and I’m not shorting silver (nor am I suggesting this) right now and in fact I haven’t been on the short side of the silver market for months. In fact, I expect silver to outperform gold in the final part of the next massive upswing, but… I don’t think this massive upswing has started yet.Gold had it’s nice post-Covid panic run-up, but it didn’t manage to hold its breakout above the 2011 highs, despite multiple dovish pledges from the Fed, the open-ended QE, and ridiculously low interest rates. Plus, while gold moved above its 2011 highs, gold stocks have barely corrected half of their decline from their 2011 highs. Compare that to when the true bull market started about two decades ago – gold miners were soaring and multiplying gold’s gains in the medium run.Let’s take a look at mining stocks, using the GDX ETF as a proxy for them.Figure 2 – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Are miners weak right now? Of course, they are weak. It was not only silver that got attention recently, but also silver stocks . The GDX ETF is mostly based on gold stocks, but still, silver miners’ performance still affects it. And… GDX is still trading relatively close to the yearly lows. Silver moved a bit above its 2020 highs – did miners do that as well? Absolutely not, they were only able to trigger a tiny move higher.And based on yesterday’s decline, most of the recent run-up was already erased.Interestingly, the most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder ( figure 2 - both marked with green) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Due to the uncanny similarity between the two green rectangles, I decided to check what happens if this mirror-similarity continues. I used purple, dashed lines for that. There were two important short-term price swings in April 2020 – one shows the size of the correction and one is a near-vertical move higher.Copying these price moves (purple lines) to the current situation, we get a scenario in which GDX (mining stocks) moves to about $31 and then comes back up to about $34. This would be in perfect tune with what I wrote previously. After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.All in all, it seems that silver’s run-up was just a temporary phenomenon and the next big medium-term move in the precious metals and mining stocks is going to be to the downside.Having said that, let’s take a look at the markets from the fundamental point of view.EUR-on to SomethingFor weeks , I’ve been warning that the fundamental disconnect between the U.S. and Eurozone economies could pressure the EUR/USD.And on Jan. 29, I wrote:The economic divergence between Europe and the U.S. continues to widen. On Jan. 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that U.S. GDP (advanced estimate) likely expanded by 4.0% in the fourth-quarter.Figure 3Making its counter move, Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP was released on Feb. 2, revealing that the European economy shrank by 0.7% (the red box below). Even more revealing, France and Italy – Europe’s second and third-largest economies – underperformed the bloc average, contracting by 1.3% and 2.0% respectively (the blue box below).Figure 4 - Source: EurostatIn addition, German retail sales (released on Feb. 1) declined by 9.6% in December – well below the 2.6% contraction expected by economists. And why is this relevant? Because the month-over-month decline was the largest since 1956 and speaks volumes coming from Europe’s largest economy.Please see below:Figure 5If that wasn’t enough, Spain’s (Europe’s fourth-largest economy) Q4 GDP inched up by only 0.40% (the red box below). And not only did the figure come in well below the Spanish government’s December estimate (of an increase of 2.40%), the country’s exports declined by 1.4%, while business investment plunged by 6.2% (the blue boxes below).Figure 6 - Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Spain’s National Statistics Institute)Moreover, as the fiscal situation worsens across Europe’s four-largest economies, the European Central Bank (ECB) has no choice but to pick up the slack. As of Feb. 2, the ECB’s balance sheet now totals more than 70% of Eurozone GDP (up from 69%). More importantly though, the figure is more than double the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) 34.5% (down from 35%).Please see below:Figure 7Thus, while the ECB’s money printer works overtime relative to the FED’s, the dominoes are lining up for a material fall:The ECB’s relative outprinting causes the FED/ECB ratio to declineA declining FED/ECB ratio causes the EUR/USD to declineA declining EUR/USD causes the precious metals to declineTo explain, please see below:Figure 8The red line above depicts the movement of the EUR/USD, while the green line above depicts the FED/ECB ratio. As you can see, when the green line rises (the FED is outprinting the ECB), the EUR/USD also tends to rise. Conversely, when the green line falls (the ECB is outprinting the FED), the EUR/USD tends to fall.As it stands today, the FED/ECB ratio has declined by 0.26% week-over-week and is down by nearly 18% since June. And if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the EUR/USD is starting to notice. As the FED/ECB ratio tracks lower, the EUR/USD is starting to roll over. And if history is any indication, the EUR/USD has plenty of catching up to do.Also signaling a profound EUR/USD decline, I warned on Jan. 27 that the EUR/GBP could be the canary in the coal mine.On Monday (Jan. 25), I wrote that Janet Yellen’s pledge to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package ushered the EUR/GBP back above critical support.However, on Tuesday (Jan. 26), the key level broke again.Please see below:Figure 9More importantly though, a break in the EUR/GBP could be an early warning sign of a forthcoming break in the EUR/USD.Figure 10If you analyze the chart above, ~20 years of history shows that the EUR/GBP and the EUR/USD tend to follow in each other’s footsteps. As a result, if the EUR/GBP retests its April low (the next support level), the EUR/USD is likely to tag along for the ride (which implies a move back to ~1.08).As it stands today, the wheels are already in motion. On Feb. 2, the EUR/GBP made another fresh low and the initial support level is all but gone.Figure 11Furthermore, notice how the EUR/USD is tracking the EUR/GBP lower? Despite being a fair distance from the ~1.08 level, the euro’s weakness relative to sterling is a sign that the Eurozone calamity is finally starting to weigh on its currency.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the EUR/USD has already broken below its December and January support.Figure 12More importantly though, we could be approaching a point of no return.Figure 13Barely breaking out of a roughly 12-year downtrend, the EUR/USD has yet to invalidate the declining long-term resistance line. As a result, and with the EUR/USD already rolling over, a break below the 1.16/1.17 level puts ~1.08 well within the range of the 2015/2016 lows.And how could this affect the PMs?Well, notice how they like to tag along for the EUR/USD’s ride?Figure 14Despite silver’s short squeeze providing a short-term reprieve, it’s no surprise that the EUR/USD’s weakness has been met with angst by the PMs.Please see below:Figure 15As a result, the floundering euro is ushering the PMs down a one-way street. And while they may veer off to view the scenery from time to time, they all remain on a path to lower prices. Thus, yesterday’s sell-off highlights the superficiality of Monday’s (Feb. 1) surge. But while finding a true bottom requires time and patience, once it occurs, the PMs long-term uptrend will resume once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

USD Struggles to Breakout from a Two-Month High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.02.2021 08:18
Euro Posts Declines For Three Consecutive Days The euro currency is posting declines for three consecutive days. Price action is now trading below the 1.2050 level.This comes even as the Stochastics oscillator is firmly below the oversold level. Price action posted a modest rebound back to the 1.2050 level where resistance has been established.Given the current pace of declines, we could expect the common currency to fall to the 1.1900 level. The downside bias will only change if price rises above the 1.2050 level.GBPUSD Turns Flat But Downside Bias Rises The British pound sterling pushed below the rising wedge pattern and price action is likely to fall further.The short term resistance level near 1.3678 is likely to keep a lid from price posting further gains. To the downside, we expect the declines to continue toward the 1.3500 level.On the daily chart, price action is trading flat for the second daily session. However, a strong bearish candlestick is required to confirm further downside.The daily Stochastics oscillator is also moving lower from the overbought levels for the moment.WTI Crude Oil Rises For Third Daily Session Crude oil prices are posting solid gains for the third consecutive session.The gains come on the back of declining crude oil inventories. It’s further due to news that the Democrats took first steps toward advancing President Biden’s proposal of $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid.Price action is now inching closer to the next main resistance level of 57.35. The Stochastics oscillator is also showing further room to the upside.In the near term, any declines could see the price retesting the 53.77 level. However, it is unlikely that we will see any short term pullbacks currently.Gold Prices Subdued Below 1850 The precious metal is posting modest declines a day after the precious metal fell over 1.2%. However, price action remains well supported above the 1817.80 level.In the near term, we expect price action to remain trading flat within the 1850 and 1817.80 levels.The Stochastics oscillator is currently slipping into the oversold level. This could indicate further near-term downside.Stronger price action is, however, expected on the back of fundamentals. This is especially regarding the Coronavirus stimulus bill.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.02.2021 16:00
After Monday‘s great rise, stocks continued without much of a pause yesterday too. Did they get ahead of themselves, or not really? And what about those correction calls, is the alarm over now? As said yesterday, the bulk of the correction in stocks, is over. Is it clear skies ahead now? In my very first 2021 analysis 10 days ago, I‘ve called for a not so rosy February ahead. Last Friday, options expired with stocks taking a plunge, so the current month will get an optical boost. I am looking for higher prices, and no correction around the corner. Gold is in a different situation, still basing and unable to keep intraday gains. Having predictably given up the silver short squeeze boost, the search for the local bottom in largely sideways price action continues. That‘s likely to be the case given that the dollar has stabilized and is peeking higher (before eventually moving to new lows, is still my call). Let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook The daily S&P 500 chart looks bullish at first glance – that‘s the V-shape rebound effect. The volume though isn‘t the greatest really. But what about yesterday‘s upper knot though? It looks to me we‘re in for a period of gains digestion. Right now, stocks look vulnerable to retracing part of the advance. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) relative to the S&P 500 (black line) posture improved, and no dissonance to speak of remains. The 3-month Treasuries though haven‘t relented much, and remain well bid. There is not much willingness in the market place to push short-term yields higher, and that‘s a short-term sign of caution. S&P 500 Sectoral Peek Technology (XLK ETF) has recovered, and gapped higher on quite low volume. Approaching its Jan highs, it‘s not though optically in the strongest position, and would do best if it were able to maintain gained ground. Financials (XLF ETF) have rebounded in a sign of cyclicals‘ strength. It‘s very good for the health of the stock bull market to see them perform this well, spreading strength across other sectors. Broad based advance is the hallmark of health. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold has declined, yet Stochastics hasn‘t turned lower just yet, and the volume of the yesterday‘s trading doesn‘t tip the scales either way. In short, gold remains rangebound for now still, and its range isn‘t really a wide one. Silver did slide, as the margin adjustments also thake their toll. The post-December trend of higher highs and higher lows is intact though, and given my yesterday-presented views about the gold-silver ratio, the white metal has a great future ahead of it still. The economy is recovering, this is an industrial metal, and the mining surplus/deficit optics is favorable to silver outperforming gold in the next upleg of this precious metals bull market. The miners, seniors represented by GDX ETF, are still bobbing near the Dec and Jan lows, yet the pattern is thus far still a basing one. Would it bring another push lower as in late January? Looking at the subsequent demand, I don‘t think such an attempt would have an overly long shelf life. Let‘s overlay the GDX chart with GDXJ, which are the junior miners. The riskier, and generally thinly traded ones. Seeing their attempts to outperform since the late November low, is an tipping sign of the sector not really wanting to keep declining much longer. That‘s another reason why I;m calling for much higher precious metals price before spring is over. Just in time for inflation... From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hey Monica…I had wondered where you'd disappeared to for a while there. Welcome back Regarding silver, the gap from monday's breakout filled nicely there, negating an island reversal. Yet, having been out since july, every time I look at the chart, the upside breakout gap of 21 july stares at me like a gaping crevasse on the everest of uptrend beginnings. I know we are going to the moon and back at some point in the next two or three years, but what do you think is the probability of a short term deflationary spike coming up? Maybe another black swan, which would fulfil the dual function of shakeout the nouveau buying masses, and put my mind at rest by filling the gap before takeoff? A: I am back, fully independent thankfully, and won‘t disappear. Well, as you‘ve seen this week, nothing goes to the moon for there are always willing parties to trim the wings… when it starts to hurt. I am also very bullish about precious metals prices as the conditions facilitating them are in place. But I have publicly called the March 2020 crash as the only deflationary spike we‘re going to see. That year, and this year won‘t bring a new crash either. See how well the financial system recovered from GameStop and silver? Margin debt is still rising, and the Fed won‘t contract any time soon. Inflation – not just food, but all commodities (copper, oil, lumber, base metals, agriculture) are broadly advancing, and a great measure of inflation to come and be felt more broadly. I am not really looking for a giant shakeout in precious metals this year really – and by the shape of things, neither in 2022 pr 2023. But remembering how the $1,050 gap in gold got filled in late 2015, I understand your concern, and say that we would get advance signs of such a potential outcome, which aren‘t present currently though. Summary The stock market recovered, and looks set to be digesting prior gains today. The correction indeed remains largely over in terms of prices. Gold is still bidding its time, which is both expected and desirable for the upcoming bull leg. Patience is the name of the game in precious metals currently still. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.
Will Interest Rate Increase Cause Gold to Plunge in 2021?

Will Interest Rate Increase Cause Gold to Plunge in 2021?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.02.2021 17:50
The decline in the real interest rates is the most important downside risk for gold. Will it materialize, plunging the price of the yellow metal?The rise in inflation is the most significant upside risk for gold this year, but there are also a few important downside risks. The most disturbing for us is the possibility that the real interest rates will increase. Why? Please take a look at the chart below.As you can see, there is a strong negative correlation between the real yields and gold prices . When the interest rates go up, the yellow metal falls, and when the rates go down, gold rallies . Indeed, the real interest rates peaked in November 2018 at 1.17 percent, just one month before the last hike in the Fed’s last tightening cycle . Since then, they were falling, reaching their historical bottom below -1.0 percent in the summer of 2020. Not coincidentally, gold was experiencing a bull market during this period, reaching its record high of almost $2010, just when the rates bottomed. And, as the rates normalized somewhat, the price of gold corrected to the level below $1,900.Now, the obvious question is whether there is further room for real interest rates to go down . In 2019, they were falling amid the economic slowdown and the dovish Fed cutting the interest rates. Last year, they plunged even further (with a short spike because of the surge in the risk premium ), as a result of the COVID-19 related economic crisis and the U.S. central bank slashing the federal funds rate to practically zero.However, the Great Lockdown and resulting deep downturn are behind us. When we face the second wave of the pandemic and people become vaccinated, there will be an economic recovery. As well, the Fed has already brought the interest rates to zero – meaning that without the U.S. central bank implementing NIRP , the nominal policy rates reached their lower bound. So, assuming that the Fed will not cut interest rates further and that investors will not expect a further slowing down of the economy, the room for further declines in the real interest rate is limited.The only hope lies in the increase in inflation expectations, which is actually quite probable, as I explained in the previous part of this edition of the Gold Market Overview . Given the surge in the broad money supply , the pent-up demand, and some structural shifts, reflation in 2021 is more likely than it was in the aftermath of the great financial crisis .However, gold investors should also be prepared for a negative scenario of low inflation. After all, the Fed has repeatedly undershot its annual inflation target. In this case, the real interest rates may stay roughly the same or they could even rise.Let’s take a look at the chart below, which shows the gold prices and real interest rates after the Great Recession . In the very aftermath of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy , they surged, but after the panic phases ended, they were falling until the end of 2012, just when, more less, the bear market in gold started.Now, somebody could say that the real interest rates were falling for four years until reaching bottom at the end of 2012, so we shouldn’t worry about the normalization of interest rates. However, the COVID-19 related economic crisis was very deep, but also very short. Everything is happening now at an accelerated speed, so we could already be reaching the local bottom in the interest rates (or be close to it).Of course, there are important differences between that period and today . First, as I’ve already emphasized, there is now a higher risk of an increase in inflation. Second, in 2013, there was a taper tantrum , while today, the Fed maintains an ultra-dovish stance and does not signal any interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future. Although the U.S. central bank didn’t expand its quantitative easing in December, showing that it feels comfortable with some increases in the bond yields , it’s not going to accept substantial rises in the interest rates. The dovish Fed’s bias is one of the main factors behind the downward trend in the real interest rates (even if they normalize somewhat, they reach further lower peaks and bottoms over time).Third, the U.S. dollar looks different. As the chart below shows, the greenback started to appreciate in 2011, pushing gold prices down. But today it is more likely that the U.S. dollar will weaken further due to a changing administration in the White House, the economic stabilization and cash outflows into developing countries, soaring public debts, a zero-interest rate policy, and the risk of an increase in inflation.If so, the normalization of the real interest rates (if it happens, which is far from being certain) doesn’t have to plunge the yellow metal . In other words, there are important downside risks to the bullish case for gold this year, but 2021 does not have to look like 2013 in the gold market.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

USD strengthens on the back of strong economic data

John Benjamin John Benjamin 05.02.2021 07:29
EURUSD Falls To A Two-Month Low The euro currency continues its descent, now for the fourth consecutive session. The declines accelerated following two days of subdued price action earlier this week.The current pace of decline opens the downside target to the 1.1900 level of support. But in the near term, the common currency could reverse losses.A retest of the 1.2050 level to establish resistance will be ideal.This will also potentially confirm the downside as the Stochastics oscillator is very oversold under current market conditions.GBPUSD Rebounds On BoE Meeting The British pound sterling reversed losses in one single session, intraday. Price action posted strong gains following the BoE coming out slightly hawkish than expected on negative rates.As a result, the GBPUSD was back near the ascending wedge breakout level of 1.3678.While this coincides with the Stochastics oscillator recovering from just off the oversold conditions, prices are struggling to breakout higher.Therefore, if the GBPUSD fails to move above 1.3678 then we could expect prices to continue to drift lower.But with the recent swing low forming near 1.3585, we could expect this level to hold in the near term.Oil Rally Takes A Pause WTI Crude oil prices are trading weaker following the previous strong bullish sessions.Price action is reversing gains after testing the 56.00 level. The declines could, however, see near term gains once again.For the moment, the bullish bias remains in place. If the declines continue, then oil prices could be testing the 53.77 level of support in the near term.Establishing support here could potentially confirm the long term bias to the upside.For the moment, above 56.00, oil prices could be testing the 57.35 level of resistance next.Gold Prices Fall To A Two-Month Low The precious metal is down over two percent on an intraday basis.The declines accelerated after the precious metal lost the footing near 1817.89 support.The sharp declines could see the precious metal touching down to 1764.22 where the next key support level resides. This will put gold prices down to a three-month low.The formation of a lower low will no doubt change the bias in gold prices to the downside.However, we expect the declines to hold near the 1764.22 level in the medium term.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

New POTUS, New Gold Bull Market?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.02.2021 16:34
Joe Biden’s election as president and his first economic proposal proved negative for gold prices, but the presidency might yet turn positive.The 46 th presidency of the United States has officially begun. What does that mean for the U.S. economy, politics and the precious metals market?Let’s start by noting that this will not be an easy presidency. The epidemic in the U.S. is raging, the economy is in recession , and public debt is ballooning. Foreign relations are strained while the nation is strongly polarized, as the recent riots clearly showed. So, Biden will have to face many problems, with few assets .First, as he turned 78 in November, Biden has been the oldest person ever sworn in as U.S. president. Second, his political capital is rather weak, as the 2020 election is more about Trump’s loss than Biden’s victory. In other words, many of his voters supported Biden not because of his merits but only because they opposed Trump. Third, he will have the smallest congressional majorities in several years. Democrats have only ten more seats than Republicans in the House and the same number of seats in the Senate. And even with Kamala Harris as a tie-breaker, Biden could not lose a single Democrat senator’s vote to pass any legislation in Senate.On the one hand, Biden’s tough political position seems to be negative for gold prices, as it lowers the odds of implementing the most radical, leftist political agenda. On the other hand, Biden’s difficulties also lower the chances of sound economic reforms, which is good news for the yellow metal. A divided Congress and Democratic Party with an old president at the helm, who has a weak personal base could result in political conflicts and stalemates which would prove positive for gold.When it comes to economics, Biden has already presented his pandemic aid bill, worth of $1.9 trillion. The proposal includes direct payments of $1,400 to households, $400 per week in supplementary unemployment benefits through September, billions of dollars for struggling businesses, schools, and local governments, as well as funding that would accelerate vaccination and support other coronavirus containment efforts. Biden also wants to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, which will not appeal to Republicans. The big size of the package will also be disliked by the GOP.The fact that Democrats have won the Georgia Senate runoffs, taking control over the Senate, increases the chances that Biden will implement his economic stimulus. The equity markets welcomed the idea of another large aid package, in contrast to bond investors who sell Treasuries, causing the yields to go up. The increase in real interest rates pushed gold prices down , as the chart below shows.It seems that investors liked the idea of big stimulus, hoping for acceleration in economic growth. However, printing more money (I know, the Treasury technically doesn’t print money – but it issues bonds which are to a large extent bought by the Fed ) and sending checks to people doesn’t increase economic output. Another problem is that the U.S. can’t run massive fiscal deficits forever and ever , hoping that interest rates will always stay low.So, although Biden’s economic stimulus may add something to the GDP growth in the short-term, it will not fundamentally strengthen the economy. Quite the contrary, the massive increase in government spending and public debt (as well as in taxation) will probably hamper the long-term productivity growth and make the already fragile debt-based economic model even more fragile. What is really worrisome is that Biden doesn’t seem to care about U.S. indebtedness – he has already spoken strongly against deficit worries and hasn’t proposed any actions to reduce the debt – and plans to unveil the additional economic stimulus.Hence, although gold declined initially in a response to Biden’s economic stimulus proposal, the new president could ultimately turn out to be positive for the yellow metal. After all, gold declined in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers’ collapse , but it shined under Barack Obama’s first presidency. And Biden is likely to be even more fiscally irresponsible than Obama (or Trump), while the Fed under Powell is likely to even more monetarily irresponsible than under Bernanke (or Yellen ). Indeed, according to The Economist , Biden’s proposal is worth about nine percent of pre-crisis GDP, nearly twice the size of Obama’s aid package in the aftermath of the Great Recession . And, in contrast to previous crises, the Fed has announced the desire to overshoot its inflation target. All these factors should support gold prices in the long run.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

The profit maze of Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.02.2021 10:35
We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Will 2021 Prompt A Big Rotation In Sector Trends? - PART I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.02.2021 19:41
An interesting question was brought to my research team recently related to sector trends in 2021 and what may shift over the next 10 to 12+ months.  It is very difficult to predict any future trends that may set up over the next year or longer, but we took the effort to consider this question and to consider where trends may change over time. The one thing my research team and I kept returning to is “how will the global economy function after COVID and how much will we return to normalcy over the next 12 to 24+ months?”  We believe this key question will potentially drive sector trends and expectations in the future.  When COVID-19 hit the globe, in early 2020, a forced transition of working from home and general panic took hold of the general public.  Those individuals that were able to continue earning while making this transition moved into a “protectionist mode” of stocking, securing, preparing for, and isolating away from risks.  This shift in our economy set up a trend where certain sectors would see benefits of this trend where others would see their economies destroyed.  For example, commercial real estate is one sector that has continued to experience extreme downside expectations while technology and Healthcare experienced greater upside expectations.Longer-term Sector Trends – What's Next?When we look at a broad, longer-term, perspective of market sectors, we can see how many sectors have rallied, some are relatively flat, and others are still moderately weak compared to pre-COVID-19 levels.  The top row of these charts, the $SPX (S&P500), XLY (Discretionary), XLC (Comm Services), and XLK (Technology) sectors have all shown tremendous rallies after the COVID-19 lows in March 2020.  We can also see that XLI (Industrials), XLB (Materials), and XLV (Healthcare) have all started to move higher recently.One needs to consider the manufacturing component of technology, S&P 500/Industrial related companies, Technology and Healthcare services/products in relationship to Materials and Material/Chemical manufacturing.  Many of these industries require massive amounts of raw materials in order to build and supply finished products to the marketplace.  This suggests a broad commodity sector rally may be setting up while other stronger sectors continue to rally.Any resurgence of the global economy after nearly a year of efforts to find an effective cure vaccine/cure for COVID-19 will likely prompt capital to search out undervalued and strong sector trends.  Given the strength of the NASDAQ & Technology sectors as well as the Discretionary sector recently, we believe a shift this likely to focus on Healthcare, Commodities (Basic Materials, Agriculture and Metals), and certain manufacturing sectors – almost like a resurgence of the manufacturing/industrial economy.SPY Monthly Chart Shows Clear Breakout Rally AttemptWhen we compare the longer-term rally in the SPY to the QQQ (see the two charts below), we can clearly see the SPY has just recently rallied above the YELLOW trend line from the lows established in 2009 & 2010.  These lows represent a critical support/resistance channel for the markets moving forward from the 2009 market bottom.  They also represent an acceleration phase cycle in price when the price moves above this level. Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Throughout almost all of 2011~2020, we can clearly see the price trend stayed below this YELLOW level.  Recently, though, the SPY price has rallied above this level for the first time since early 2011.  This suggests a broad SPY rally as initiated and that further upside price trending is likely as long as prices stay above the YELLOW support level.  If this level fails in the future, then a larger downside price trend may prompt a deeper price correction.The important factor for this chart is the recent rally above the YELLOW support channel.  The resurgence of the global economy and global central bank support may be prompting a very strong upward price phase – something we have not seen in more than a decade.QQQ Has Continued A Very Strong Rally Since 2009Comparing the same levels of the SPY chart to the QQQ chart presents a very different picture.  The QQQ price activity has, almost continually, stayed above the same YELLOW support/resistance level originating from the 2009 bottom.  This suggests that the strength of the technology sector, a major component of the NASDAQ, drove quite a bit of upward market expansion over the last 10+ years and is continuing to drive market prices higher.  This incredible trend related to technology services, products, support, and infrastructure has really served as a technological revolution over the past 2 decades.  Yet, will these expectation last if the market changes dynamics?It appears the QQQ is poised to target the $356~$357 level, which would complete a full 200% Fibonacci Measured Move to the upside. If and when that happens, we may see some increased volatility/rotation in the NASDAQ/Technology sector after watching this sector rally more than 100% from the March 2020 COVID-19 lows.Of course, technology will still continue to play a major role in our lives, but we may see these sectors attempt to restructure and re-balance if a new Commodity/Basic Material/Manufacturing phase takes root.  This process may take place over many months or years, but we believe it is very likely given the extent of the rally phases of these sectors and the process of rebuilding a functioning global economy.In Part II of this article, we'll dive deeper into the trends and setups that make this shift in global market sector a real potential for future profits.  Remember, we are not making any call that the market it topping or collapsing from these levels.  We believe the resurgence in the global economy may prompt a restructuring of value in many sectors over the next 2 to 3 years – where Commodities, Basic Materials, and Manufacturing may suddenly become hot sectors as the global economy attempt to rebuild after COVID-19.  This does not detract from the bullish trending in current sectors, it just means many undervalued sectors may become very hot over the next 15+ months.Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Learn how the BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups because staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Have a relaxing Sunday!
Stimulus bets rise as labor market continues to remain weak

Stimulus bets rise as labor market continues to remain weak

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.02.2021 07:45
EURUSD Snaps A Four Day Losing Streak The euro currency posted gains on Friday, marking an end to four consecutive daily declines. The rebound comes after price reversed near a three-month low of 1.1951.As a result, prices pared losses to close on Friday near 1.2050. This level initially served as support.If price action forms resistance here, then we expect to see the EURUSD trading within the price band of 1.2050 and 1.1951.A breakout from this range will further set the direction.To the downside, the next support level is at 1.1900. To the upside, a strong close above 1.2050 could open the way for price to test the 1.2144 level next.GBPUSD Price Action Invalidates Ascending Wedge Pattern The British pound sterling continues to hold a strong bullish momentum. The strong reversal after price fell to a two-week low has now invalidated the ascending wedge pattern.This keeps price action biased to the upside. After Friday’s close, the GBPUSD is trading back close to the three and half year high.The currency pair has also now closed with bullish gains for four consecutive weeks.Still, the momentum is slowing and unless the GBPUSD closes strongly above 1.3755, we expect price action to remain flat near the current highs.Oil Prices Settle Near A 13-Month High WTI Crude oil prices continued to advance with price action closing near a 13-month high. Prices briefly traded close to the next key resistance level of 57.35.We could expect a push higher for the commodity to test this level firmly. Further gains can be expected only on a strong breakout above this level.This means that a reversal near 57.35 will potentially see a possible retracement coming.The previously held resistance level near 53.77 remains the initial downside target for the moment.The price level near 40.55 however marks the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level for the decline from 65.62 in January 2020 through the zero level on 20th April.Therefore, the correction, if applicable could see a stronger pullback.Gold Prices Pull Back From A Three-Month Low The precious metal managed to recover some of the losses on Friday. Price action closed with over one percent gains on the day, after falling to a three-month low previously.The retracement puts gold prices close to the 1817.80 level where resistance could form.Unless we see a strong close above 1817.80, gold prices could hold a sideways range between 1817.80 and the recent lows near 1784.81.Despite the current pullback, gold price closed on a bearish note for the week. Therefore, a continuation to the downside cannot be ruled out.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

More Than a Snapback Rally in Gold As Stocks Keep Marching

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.02.2021 16:30
Stock bulls aren‘t wavering, and the upswing continues without a pause. Is the move (still) in balance with the relevant markets as one catches up to the other, or is a digestion of prior sharp gains nearby? It didn‘t come earlier this week, and in today‘s article, I‘ll lay down the rising probabilities of seeing at least a short-term pause in the stellar pace of gains since Monday. Gold pause gave way to selling pressure yesterday, spurred to a degree by the post-Monday‘s trading action. As both metals declined by around 2.5%, this move probably appears overdone to more than a few. Me included, as I called it a kneejerk reaction before yesterday‘s close. In today‘s analysis, I‘ll demonstrate why precious metals investors shouldn‘t be afraid of a trend change – none is happening. Let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook Stocks continue higher without stopping, and the daily volume rose a little. The bulls are strong, and took prices almost to the upper Bollinger Bands border amid positive moves in CCI and Stochastics. The daily of daily increases looks set to slow down as minimum though – starting today. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) are still pushing higher. While I ignored Tuesday‘s and Wednesday‘s upper knot, yesterday‘s one is arguably a more respectable one, and that‘s because of the drying volume. It wouldn‘t be unimaginable to experience HYG to pause shortly, which would support my prior assessment about SPX. High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio with S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows that the two are tracking each other tightly in recent days. Actually, stocks are reaching for the leadership position, which given their performance since the start of November is very short-term suspect (stocks have lagged a little relative to the credit markets, and now they‘re trying to lead). That‘s yet another reason why to be cautious about (at least today‘s) trading – and for all the coming days, you know now where to find my daily analyses. Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Smallcaps aren‘t weakening vs. the 500-strong index in the least, which means that the stock bull market continues unabated. It also disproves the recent significant correction ahead calls on the internet that aren‘t hard to come by. Here we are after Friday‘s bloodbath that I called as out of whack with the internals, here we are at new index highs, this soon. In yesterday‘s analysis, I presented the value to growth ratio‘s message of the rotation from tech into value as value having to try once again. Technology (XLK ETF) had a strong week, so let‘s inspect its performance vs. the smallcaps – see the above chart. It shows that the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) has carved a nice, almost rounded bottom, and is primed for higher values ahead, which also supports the notion of no stock market top ahead. Gold in the Spotlight The yellow metal is attempting to stage a recovery – a modest one thus far as it has been rejected at $1810 earlier. How disappointing is that? We‘ll see at the closing bell (my assumption is that the bulls will prevail today comfortably), but the implications of the moves thus far doesn‘t change my thesis of a break higher from the 5-month long consolidation in the least. It‘s that the technical (not to mention fundamental) factors propelling it higher, are still in place. The caption says it all – we‘re in the closing stages of the prolonged consolidation, and prices will rebound next, as so many preceding sizable red candles had trouble attracting follow through selling, and yesterday‘s candle is in a technically even more difficult position to achieve that. The moving averages aren‘t seriously declining, and I look for the death cross (50-day moving average puncturing the 200-day one) to fail relatively shortly. The Force index in gold agrees that we aren‘t seeing a really serious push to the downside here. Look at the start of 2021, how deep it went back then – we‘ll carve out a nice bullish divergence as I look for gold to get serious about turning up. Yes, the Force index won‘t decline as low as in early January. Silver didn‘t yield all that much ground as the short squeeze got squeezed. The chart is still bullish, and I stand by the calls mentioned in the caption here – a great future ahead for the white metal in 1H 2021 and beyond. Ratios and Miners The gold to silver ratio also continues favoring the white metal, whose this week‘s retreat (post-Monday) didn‘t affect the downward trending values in the least. The miners to gold ratio continues supporting my call of breakdown invalidation leading to a new precious metals upleg. I made the calls along these lines both on Tuesday and prior Monday, when I featured my 2021 prognotications on stocks, gold, dollar and Bitcoin – please do check them if you hadn‘t done so already. Senior gold miners (GDX ETF) are taking a back seat to juniors (GDXJ ETF), andthat‘s a hallmark of bullish spirits returning – first below the surface, then very apparently. While we have to wait for the latter, its preconditions are here. Summary The stock market keeps powering higher, and despite the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution given the speed of the recovery and its internals presented, is in place even as the stock bull run shows zero signs of having topped. It‘s time for the gold and silver bulls to reappear after yesterday‘s outsized setback. Crucially, it hasn‘t flipped the short- and medium-term outlook bearish as the factors powering the precious metals bull run, are in place. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

What’s Next for the Silver Roller Coaster?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.02.2021 16:32
After a frenzy of Reddit induced activity that captivated everyone, silver painfully gave back what it gained. What’s next for the white metal?As the precious metals’ version of moral hazard, silver tipped over the flowerpot, and left gold to clean up the mess. After silver’s short squeeze mania ended in tears on Feb. 2, the white metal gave back 97% of its squeeze -induced gains. Conversely, bearing the brunt of the market’s wrath, gold gave back 237% of the momentum-induced gains.Please see below:Figure 1As a result, silver is doing what it normally does near market tops: outperforming among comments regarding silver shortage .Positioning itself for an epic blow-off top, silver’s Feb. 1 surge ended in less than 24 hours. In addition, silver is approaching two triangle-vertex-based reversal points – which could come to a head by the end of February or early March. However, given the two set ups, they could be signaling one climactic reversal or two separate reversals of differing magnitudes. As it stands today, it’s still too early to tell.Figure 2 - COMEX Silver FuturesHowever, supporting the argument of a single blow-off top, I mentioned last week that the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) took in nearly $1 billion in daily inflows on Jan. 29. For context, that was nearly double the previous record.Please see below:Figure 3 - Source: Bloomberg/Eric BalchunasBut because too much of a good thing can often be bad, the frantic buying mirrored an ominous period in SLV’s history.Please see below:Figure 4 - COMEX Silver FuturesIf you analyze the volume spikes at the bottom of the chart, 2021 and 2011 are a splitting image. To explain, in 2011, an initial abnormal spike in volume was followed by a second parabolic surge. However, not long after, silver’s bear market began.SLV-volume-wise, there's only one similar situation from the past - the 2011 top. This is a very bearish analogy as higher prices of the white metal were not seen since that time, but the analogy gets even more bearish. The reason is the "initial warning" volume spike in this ETF. It took place a few months before SLV formed its final top, and we saw the same thing also a few months ago, when silver formed its initial 2020 top.The history may not repeat itself to the letter, but it tends to be quite similar. And the more two situations are alike, the more likely it is for the follow-up action to be similar as well. And in this case, the implications for the silver price forecast are clearly bearish.Based on the above chart, it seems that silver is likely to move well above its 2011 highs, but it’s unlikely to do it without another sizable downswing first.In conclusion, if silver meets its maker, the white metal is likely to lead gold and the miners to slaughter. Moreover, silver is well known for its false breakouts and its relative strength is often a precursor to substantial declines. As a result, last week’s short squeeze was much more semblance than substance. In contrast, once the metals rebase and trade at more appropriate levels, an attractive buying opportunity will emerge.For more insight, let’s look at the relative performance of gold, silver and the gold miners, and compare how they’re impacted by the USDX and the SPX. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the precious metals all broke down in September, after the USDX broke above resistance.Figure 5To explain, I wrote on Jan. 18:Like traffic lights flashing red, notice how the HUI Index (proxy for gold stocks) is trading well below its early 2020 highs? In stark contrast, gold remains moderately above its early 2020 highs, while silver is significantly above its early 2020 highs. The misaligned performance – with silver outperforming and gold miners underperforming – puts a bow on this bearish package.The bottom line?It is not only the case that silver was strong and miners were weak in the last several days – it’s been the case over the past several months as well. The implications are bearish.Also troubling is that the stock market that’s soaring in the medium term, hasn’t shined its light upon the PM market. Contrasting the mantra that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats,’ equity market strength hasn’t triggered a sustainable rally in silver or the gold miners. And this “should have” been the case – both are more connected to stocks than gold is. Gold stocks because they are, well, stocks. Silver, due to multiple industrial usesAll in all, based on what we saw in silver recently, it doesn’t seem that we’re likely to see much higher precious metals prices without seeing a major decline first.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Gold About To Spring As Stocks Cool Off At Highs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.02.2021 16:15
Stock bulls aren‘t yielding an inch of ground, and technically they have precious few reasons for doing so. It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, and the anticipated slowdown in gains over Friday, where is the momentary balance of forces? As the proverbial rubber bands gets pushed upwards still, what about those rising probabilities of seeing at least a short-term pause in the stellar pace of gains since last Monday? Gold did recover on Friday, and didn‘t disappoint after Thursday‘s slide. The weak non-farm employment data certainly helped, sending the dollar bulls packing. It‘s my view that we‘re on the way to making another dollar top, after which much lower greenback values would follow. Given the currently still prevailing negative correlation between the fiat currency and its shiny nemesis, that would also take the short-term pressure of the monetary metal(s). What would you expect given the $1.9T stimulus bill, infrastructure plans of similar price tag, and the 2020 debt to GDP oh so solidly over 108%? Inflation is roaring – red hot copper, base metals, corn, soybeans, lumber and oil, and Treasury holders are demanding higher yields especially on the long end (we‘re getting started here too). Apart from the key currency ingredient, I‘ll present today more than a few good reasons for the precious metals bull to come roaring back with vengeance before too long. Let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook and Its Internals Stocks keep pushing higher, and the bulls are strong regardless of the little contraction in the daily volume. The daily indicators attest to the strength of the uptrend, but the pace of daily increases looks set to slow down as minimum though. Imagine that all the constituent shares in the S&P 500 had equal weight (i.e. forget about $NYFANG) – this is the chart you get. RSP ETF is only now challenging its highs, which is however not a disappointment or a red light flashing divergence at all. The march to new highs in the S&P 500 still looks satisfactorily broad based. Market breadth confirms that very clearly. Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume aren‘t disappointing in the least, and new highs new lows have made a strong comeback from preceding setback. The intermediate picture is one of strength. Credit Markets and S&P 500 Sectoral Ratios High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio with S&P 500 overlaid (black line) shows that the two are tracking each other tightly in recent days. Stocks haven‘t yet yielded in their attempt at taking leadership position, regardless of their performance since the start of November (which makes the attempt suspect in the very short-term, as stocks have lagged a little relative to the credit markets back then). Bearish prospects? No way, dips are still to be bought. The financials to utilities (XLF:XLU) ratio still broadly supports the stock market advance. Looking at the bond market dynamics, I expect utilities to remain under pressure while financials would gain faster. I‘m not worried by the current relatively depressed ratio‘s value, and don‘t consider it a warning sign for the S&P 500 in the least. Consumer discretionaries to consumer staples (XLY:XLP) is another leading ratio worth watching. It‘s currently at quite elevated levels, as I view the discretionaries as extended while the staples have undergone an appealing pullback. Even though that makes for short-term headwinds in the ratio, it‘s still primed to support the stock market bulls. Gold & Silver Friday‘s gold session still is cause enough for optimism among the gold bulls about an important low being made. The other option would be a brief dip below Thursday‘s lows, which I however due to more powerful $USD reversal on Friday (erasing all Thursday‘s gains on the heels of poor non-farm payrolls data), don‘t look at as the more likely scenario currently. For now, it still remains most probable that Thursday‘s bottom in gold won‘t be overcome by much, not going down to more than $1760 (though I am obviously not betting all in my trading plans on this strong support) – if at all. It‘s the „if at all“ part that I subscribe to most heavily. Silver‘s chart is the livelier one, less under pressure but given the recent squeeze-driven run, the white metal might need to cool down a bit here. The 1H real economy recovery outlook is though guaranteed to put a solid floor below any sub $26 dip should that – which is as questionable as in case of gold – happen at all. Base building at roughly current levels would be a healthy development for the bulls to rejoice. Precious Metals Ratios Checking out on the gold to all corporate bonds ($GOLD:$DJCB) ratio reveals relative strength in the yellow metal currently. It‘s trading much farther above its late Nov low than the metal itself. Similarly to the case junior miners to senior ones are making, this is a hidden sign of strength in the precious metals sector, whose next upleg is knocking on door. The miners to gold ($HUI:$GOLD) ratio‘s false breakdown announcing another upleg that I discussed on Feb 01 already, is still intact, and sending the very same signals of internal strength inside the precious metals complex. The 1H 2021 future is bright, and approaching fast. Summary The stock market keeps powering higher, and despite the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution given the speed of the recovery and its internals presented, is in place. I wouldn‘t be surprised to see today or tomorrow a brief and weak whiff of lower prices – nothing to call home about if you were a bear, that is. The gold and silver bulls apprear to be staging a return, slowly but surely, which is consistent with the price damage repair pattern frequently experienced after sizable red candles that felt to at least part of the marketplace as out of the left field. The case for the next upleg remains as strong as it has ever been in my view. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

PMs Charging Higher As Stocks Keep Pushing On a String

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.02.2021 16:23
Stocks keep cooling off at their highs, and calling for a correction still seems to be many a fool‘s errand. Does it mean all is fine in the S&P 500 land? Largely, it still is.Such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, and the anticipated slowdown in gains over Friday, where is the momentary balance of forces?Still favoring the bulls – that‘s the short answer before we get to a more detailed one shortly.The anticipaded gold rebound is underway, and my open long position is solidly profitable right now. In line with the case I‘ve been making since the end of January, the tide has turned in the precious metals, and we are in a new bull upleg, which will get quite obvious to and painful for the bears. Little noted and commented upon, don‘t forget though about my yesterday‘s dollar observations, as these are silently marking the turning point I called for, and we‘re witnessing in precious metals:(…) The weak non-farm employment data certainly helped, sending the dollar bulls packing. It‘s my view that we‘re on the way to making another dollar top, after which much lower greenback values would follow. Given the currently still prevailing negative correlation between the fiat currency and its shiny nemesis, that would also take the short-term pressure of the monetary metal(s). What would you expect given the $1.9T stimulus bill, infrastructure plans of similar price tag, and the 2020 debt to GDP oh so solidly over 108%? Inflation is roaring – red hot copper, base metals, corn, soybeans, lumber and oil, and Treasury holders are demanding higher yields especially on the long end (we‘re getting started here too). Apart from the key currency ingredient, I‘ll present today more than a few good reasons for the precious metals bull to come roaring back with vengeance before too long.Finally, I‘ll bring you an oil market analysis today as well. So, let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsA strong chart with strong gains, and the volume isn‘t attracting either much buying or selling interest. That smacks of continued accumulation, with little in terms of clearly warning signs ahead.The market breadth indicators are all very bullish, and pushing for new highs, as the caption points out precisely.The intermediate picture remains one of strength.Credit Markets and TechnologyHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is powering higher significantly stronger than the investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) one. The bullish spirits are clearly running high in the markets.Technology (XLK ETF) as the leading heavyweight S&P 500 sector, keeps charging higher vigorously after not so convincing post-Aug performance. Crucially, its current advance is well supported by the semiconductors (XSD ETF – black line), meaning that apart from the rotational theme I‘ve been been mentioning last Thursday, we have the key tech sector firing on all cylinders still.Gold & SilverLet‘s overlay the gold chart with silver (black line). The disconnect since the Nov low should be pretty obvious, and interpreted the silver bullish way I‘ve been hammering for weeks already. Please also note that the white metal has been outperforming well before any silver squeeze caught everyone‘s attention.Let‘s go on with gold and the miners (black line). See that end Jan dip I called as fake? Where are we now? Miners are no longer underperforming, and the stage is set for a powerful rise.Just check the gold miners to silver miners view to get an idea of how much the white metal‘s universe is leading everything gold. Another powerful testament to the nascent bull upleg in the precious metals.Continuing with gold and long-term Treasuries (black line), we see that the king of metals isn‘t giving in. Instead, it‘s rising in the face plunging Treasuries that are offering higher yields now. No, the yellow metal is decoupling here, as the new precious metals upleg is getting underway. The greenback is the culprit – and again in my yesterday‘s analysis, I called the headwinds it‘s running into. The world reserve currency will indeed get under serious pressure and break down to new lows as the important local top is being made.From the Readers‘ Mailbag - OilQ: "Hi Monica, I am glad I found you after you 'disappeared' from Sunshine Profits! As you had been back then already covering gold and oil at times, I wonder what's your take on black gold right now. A little great birdie told me oil will be the next Tesla for 2021 - what's your take?"A: I am also happy that you found me too! Thankfully, my „disappearance“ is now history. I‘ll gladly keep commenting, in total freedom, on any question dear readers ask me. Back in autumn 2020, seeing the beaten down XLE, I wrote that energy is ripe for an upside surprise. I was also featuring the fracking ETF (FRAK) back then. Both have risen tremendously, and it‘s my view that the oil sector (let‘s talk $WTIC) is set for strong gains this year, and naturally the next one too. Think $80 per barrel. Part of the answer is the approach to „dirty“ energy that strangles supply, and diverts resources away from exploitation and exploration. Not to mention pipelines. Did you know that the overwhelming majority of ‚clean‘ energy to charge electric cars, comes from coal? And that the only coal ETF (KOL) which I also used to feature back in autumn, closed shop? Oil is clearly the less problematic energy solution than coal.These are perfect ingredients for an energy storm to hit the States by mid decade. I offer the following chart to whoever might think that oil is overvalued here. It‘s not – it‘s just like all the other commodities, sensing inflation hitting increasingly more.SummaryThe stock market keeps powering higher, and despite the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution given the speed of the recovery and its internals presented, is in place. Expect though any correction to be a relatively shallow one – and new highs would follow, for we‘re far away from a top.The gold and silver bulls are staging a return, as last week‘s price damage is being repaired. The signs of a precious metals bull, of a new upleg knocking on the door, abound – patience will be rewarded with stellar gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.Thank you,Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co* * * * *All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

USD extends decline for three-days

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.02.2021 08:59
EURUSD Gains But Watch The Hidden Bearish Divergence The euro currency snapped strongly above the 1.2050 level, but price action formed a lower high.The hidden bearish divergence on the chart could, however, see prices pushing lower.To the downside, the euro currency is forecast to push down lower to the 1.2050 level of support.If price breaks down below this level, then we expect further downside.The previous low near 1.1953 will however need to crash lower to continue the downtrend.But the support level near 1.2050 level will act as the line in the sand.GBPUSD Rises To A New Three-And-Half Year High The British pound sterling continues to push higher with price action rising to a new three and a half year high. The gains come as the GBPUSD moves closer to the 1.3777 level.Given that this level has served as support in the past, we could expect GBPUSD to form resistance at this level.If price reverses near this level, then we might expect price action to slip back to the 1.3500 level of support. But in the near term, GBPUSD will need to break down below the 1.3758 level of support to confirm the downside.In the event that the currency pair rises above 1.3777 level, then we expect a further upside that could see the next level near 1.4368.WTI Crude Oil Breaks From A 6-Day Winning Streak WTI crude oil prices are pushing lower following a six-day winning streak. Price action rose to a 13-month high prior to the pullback.But for the moment, the declines are likely supported near the 57.35 level of support. If price action loses this support, then we expect to see further declines.The next main support level near 53.77 will be the level to watch. For the moment, watch how the daily price action will unfold near the current highs.We would need to see a bearish follow through to the downside to confirm the correction.In the event that the support level near 57.35 holds, we could expect to see further gains.Price action will need to break out above the current highs of 58.59 in order to confirm further continuation to the upside.Gold Prices Rise For Three-Consecutive Days The precious metal is posting strong gains, rising for three consecutive days. Despite the gains, prices are below the 1850 level of resistance.In the near term, we might expect prices to move sideways within the 1850 and 1817.80 level. If price breaks out above 1850 level, we could expect to see further gains.The next key level will be near the 1874.00 resistance level. To the downside, the support level near 1817.80 will likely keep prices supported from any further declines.Meanwhile, we continue to see the hidden bearish divergence forming on the 4-hour chart.Therefore, it is quite likely that the 1817.80 level could be tested in the near term.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stocks Ripe for a Breather As Gold and Silver Remain Strong

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.02.2021 15:44
Both the upside and downside in stocks appears limited as these keep cooling off not far away from recent highs. Yesterday‘s session sent us a telling signal that the bears might wake up from their stupor briefly. Largely though, all remains well in the S&P 500 land. The anticipated gold rebound is underway, and the significant upper knot of yesterday‘s session isn‘t concerning – gold is not rolling over to the downside here. Let alone silver. I view yesterday‘s trading as consistent with a daily pause within an unfolding uptrend. My open long position is growingly profitable, and I‘ve covered the bullish case in detail both on Monday and Tuesday. Today‘s analysis will strengthen the story even more. Given the dollar performance, I can‘t underline enough the importance of what we‘re witnessing – let‘s move to my Monday‘s dollar observations, which are silently marking the turning point I called for, directly relevant to precious metals: (…) The weak non-farm employment data certainly helped, sending the dollar bulls packing. It‘s my view that we‘re on the way to making another dollar top, after which much lower greenback values would follow. Given the currently still prevailing negative correlation between the fiat currency and its shiny nemesis, that would also take the short-term pressure of the monetary metal(s). What would you expect given the $1.9T stimulus bill, infrastructure plans of similar price tag, and the 2020 debt to GDP oh so solidly over 108%? Inflation is roaring – red hot copper, base metals, corn, soybeans, lumber and oil, and Treasury holders are demanding higher yields especially on the long end (we‘re getting started here too). Apart from the key currency ingredient, I‘ll present today more than a few good reasons for the precious metals bull to come roaring back with vengeance before too long. Finally, I‘ll bring you uranimum market analysis today as well. By popular demand, I‘ll dive into the commodity and its miners. You know already that my focus goes much further than the key topic of these analyses (stocks and precious metals). I am regularly covering oil, commodities and currencies too – just check out my trading story if you hadn‘t done so already. So, let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook and Its Internals A first day of hesitation into a very strong chart with non-stop gains recently, yet it‘s exactly these moments when the bears might try to raise their heads once again. Just to rock the boat, that‘s all. The Force index is warning that its solid upswing is due a reprieve here in what I perceive to be initial signs of selling into strength. Not too much, but distribution had an upper hand yesterday over accumulation. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) didn‘t perform fine yesterday at all. On declining volume, the bulls couldn‘t close above Monday‘s opening prices, which given the post Jan 20 performance doesn‘t bode well for the short term. The steep uptrend simply appears in need of a rest. Smallcaps, Emerging Markets and Oil S&P 500 vs. the overlaid Russell 2000 (black line) isn‘t sending any warning signs of internal weakness when the two are compared. The rising tide is lifting all (stock) boats. Neither the emerging markets (black line) are diverging – the many stock bull markets around the world, they are all doing fine. The oil to gold ratio keeps leaning in favor of oil, just as it‘s expected during an economic recovery, coupled with inflation that‘s lighting fire across commodities. The stock bull isn‘t going down really. Gold & Silver Let‘s overlay the gold chart with silver (black line). My yesterday‘s words are a good fit also today – the disconnect since the Nov low should be pretty obvious, and interpreted the silver bullish way I‘ve been hammering for weeks already. Please also note that the white metal has been outperforming well before any silver squeeze caught everyone‘s attention. The gold to silver ratio sends a similarly clear message – the coming precious metals upleg will be characterized by silver outperforming gold for a variety of reasons beyond the industrial demand and versatility ones. Silver‘s above ground stockpile isn‘t being added to at the same pace as gold‘s is, and its recycling is less feasible practically speaking. Solar panels are but one of the ever hungry industrial applications, making heavy demands on silver reserves. Let‘s overlay the senior gold miners chart with both junior mining stocks (also gold) and silver mining stocks. See the late Nov turning point, where silver miners started outperforming both the gold juniors and gold seniors. That‘s another proof of the precious metals bull waking up. From the Readers‘ Mailbag - Uranium Q: Hi Monica, despite all the dire warnings of $1500 on gold, you seem to be spot on so far. Where do you think uranium might be headed. It looks risky but some say nowhere but up others nowhere but down! A: Thank you very much! That‘s honest analysis, free from fearmongering. I have been very vocal in writing here, on Twitter, and within comments everywhere that hypothetical technical targets divorced from reality (nonsensical) are dangerous to those who take them without a pinch of salt or two. Whenever I turn from a precious metals (or stock market) bull to a more cautious tone, you all my dear readers, will be the first ones to know. Just as now, the technical signs supporting the bullish (PMs) case are appearing increasingly forcefully (hello, dollar), the same way I‘ll present to you the weakening bullish factors whenever their time comes. We are far away from that in both markets, and in oil too (you‘ll hear me cover that one more often as well). Uranium was hit pretty hard with the Fukushima disaster of 2011 that brought about a long bear market. In 2016, a bottom was reached, and the commodity is slowly but surely on the mend. No spectacular gains, but modest positive returns that not even coronavirus managed to bring down. The same though couldn‘t be said about uranium miners as the below chart shows. Having taken a plunge, they‘ve recovered with the veracity of Bitcoin (called right in my first 2021 analysis), outperforming uranium as a commodity greatly. Still, these remain considerably below their 2011 highs (over $105), and given the energy mix and policies, I am clearly on the bullish side of the uranium opinion spectrum. Summary The stock market keeps holding gained ground, but regardless of the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution is called for given the weakening credit markets, which may prove to be very temporary indeed. Expect any correction to be relatively shallow – and new highs to follow, for we‘re far away from a top. The gold and silver bulls are consolidating gains amid their return, and the bullish case for precious metals is growing stronger day by day. Crucially, it‘s not about the dollar here, but about the sectoral internals, and decoupling from rising Treasury yields. The new upleg is knocking on the door, and patience will be rewarded with stellar gains. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.
That Wasn’t Much of a Down Day..

That Wasn’t Much of a Down Day..

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.02.2021 15:55
Technically, the Dow and S&P snapped their 7-day winning streak.Technically.I hardly consider a decline of 0.03% and 0.11% for the Dow and S&P, respectively, a down day.Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and Russell saw a record close for who knows how many consecutive days.Can the market keep this up? Who even knows anymore. Everything seems to defy expectations and logic. Yeah, it's possible. But I'd be surprised if we don't see at least one sharp pullback before the end of the week.The sentiment is surely rosy right now. The economic recovery appears to be gaining steam, and the Q1 decline everyone predicted might not be as swift as we anticipated- if at all. President Biden's stimulus could officially pass within days as well and provide much-needed relief to struggling businesses and families.Have you seen the vaccine numbers lately, too? More people in the U.S. have now been vaccinated than total cases. On Monday (Feb. 8), vaccine doses outnumbered new cases 10-1. New daily COVID cases have also reached their lowest levels since October.With Johnson and Johnson's (JNJ) one dose vaccine candidate seemingly days away from FDA approval, the outlook is certainly more positive at this point than many anticipated.But we're not out of the woods yet, and three non-pandemic related factors still concern me- complacency, overvaluation, and inflation.Jim Cramer's "Seven Deadly Sins" from Mad Money Monday night (Feb. 8) reflect many of my concerns too:Source: CNBCYes, I know I keep saying to beware. I also know that earnings are on pace to rise by over 20% in 2021. Since 1980, only 12 years have earnings increased by 15% or more. Except for 2018, the market gained an average of 12% in all of those years.But consider some valuation metrics that scream “bubble.”As of February 4, 2021, the Buffett Indicator , or the ratio of the total US stock market valuation to the GDP, was at a level not seen since the dotcom bubble. If you take the US stock market cap of $48.7 trillion and the estimated GDP of $21.7 trillion, we're nearly 224% overvalued and 84% above the historical average.Keep in mind; this chart was dated February 4. This number has only grown since then. Tuesday (Feb. 9) was hardly a down day. If anything, it was plain dull.Fears of a bubble are genuine. The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is back to above 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are again approaching dot-com bust levels.Bank of America also believes that a market correction could be on the horizon due to signs of overheating.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. They are also way more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and ‘as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”The key word here- buyable.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Small-Caps are Officially Overbought Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)This pains me to write this because I love Russell 2000 small-cap index in 2021.But this is getting ridiculous now.As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks have been on a rampage since November. Since the close on October 30, the IWM has gained nearly 50% and more than doubled ETFs' returns tracking the larger indices. What happened to the Nasdaq being red hot? This chart makes it look like an igloo.Since the close on January 29, the Russell has done just about the same again and gained 11.10%. It’s outperformed all the other major indices by a minimum of 5% in that period.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up a staggering 18%.Small-caps are funny. They either outperform and underperform and can be swayed easily by the news. I foresaw the pullback two weeks ago coming for over a month, and unfortunately, I see the same thing happening now. But only for the short-term.I remain bullish due to aggressive stimulus, which could be put in motion this week.I also love small-cap stocks for the long-term, especially as the world reopens and this Biden agenda gets put in motion. It seems like things are finally trending in the right direction.For now, though, the index is once again overbought.The RSI is at a scorching 75, and I can't justify calling this a BUY or HOLD right now. It's an excellent time to take profits.SELL and take profits. If and when there is a deeper pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Gold and Silver: Is Recent Rally Cause for Concern?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.02.2021 16:54
Does gold’s most recent rally and the inflow of capital into silver change the fundamental outlook of the PMs? If so, what about equities?In short, yes, the U.S. dollar is down, thereby boosting gold. Yes, the recent massive interest in silver has everyone talking about getting in on the action. However, one must remember that markets don’t move in a straight line and countertrend rallies are expected along the way. Keep your eye on the ball. Now, let’s examine what exactly is happening.Gold moved higher once again yesterday (Feb. 9), but it reversed and declined before the closing bell. Miners declined as well. Does it mean that the next top is in or about to be in? That’s exactly what it means. Especially considering that gold’s reversal took place almost right at the triangle-vertex-based reversal and during USD’s breakout’s verification.Figure 1 - USD IndexI previously wrote that because assets don’t move in a straight line, it’s plausible that the USD Index retests its declining resistance line, while gold retests its rising support line. If this occurs, the USDX is likely to decline to the 90.6 range, while gold will receive a short-term boost . I emphasized that the outcome does not change their medium-term trends and the above confirmations signal that the USDX is heading north and gold is heading south.The part that I put in bold is exactly what is being realized right now. The USDX is correcting after the breakout, likely verifying the previous resistance as support.Unless the USDX breaks back below the declining medium-term support line in a meaningful way, the bullish implications for the following weeks will remain intact. At the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is practically right at the support line, which means that it’s quite likely to reverse shortly.Figure 2 - COMEX Gold FuturesGold formed a reversal yesterday, but it ended the session slightly higher. The latter might seem bullish, until one compares that to the size of the daily decline in the USD Index. The move lower in the latter was quite visible, so what we saw in gold should be viewed as USDX’s underperformance and thus a bearish sign.Let’s keep in mind that gold was just at its triangle-vertex-based reversal (based on the declining black resistance line and the rising red support line), which perfectly fits the shape of yesterday’s session – the shooting star reversal candlestick. The implications are bearish.Today, gold moved slightly higher, but the move was too small to change anything. Gold didn’t move above yesterday’s intraday high, which means that the short-term top might already be in.What about silver, did the white metal change anything?Figure 3 - COMEX Silver FuturesNot really. Just like gold, silver is taking a breather after the increased volatility. This is normal.Speaking of silver, please note how big the silver inflows were last week.Figure 4This might seem bullish at first sight – a lot of capital entering the silver market is bound to push the silver price higher, right?Wrong. This could simply be an indication of a temporary (yet massive) increase in the white metal’s potential (which no doubt will be realized, but not necessarily yet), which is something that we tend to see at market tops along with increased interest in terms like “ silver squeeze ” or “ silver manipulation ”.Please compare the first spike that you can see on the above chart with what silver did next (on the following chart).Figure 5Silver declined severely in the first half of 2013. Also please note that at that time, the silver market was already well after the massive monthly volume spike. We saw the same thing in mid-2020.The outlook for silver is very bullish for the next years, but the implications of the above factors are very bearish for the medium term.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, stocks’ day of reckoning is coming . And it might be very, very close.Eyes Wide ShutAs the NASDAQ Composite records yet another all-time high, investors are sleepwalking through one of the most dangerous equity markets ever.On Feb. 4, I warned that fund managers’ cash positions were frighteningly low.I wrote:Mutual fund managers are now holding less than 2% of their portfolios in cash – an all-time low.Figure 6 - Source: SentimenTraderMoreover, with fear of missing out (FOMO) taking a sledgehammer to valuation, pension funds are also following the bad behavior. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that pension fund cash positions have fallen to 2.6% – also an all-time low.Figure 7 - Source: SentimenTraderAnd with daydreams of riches continuing to transfix rationality, the upward inertia has left equity bears nearly extinct. As of Jan. 15 (the latest data available), S&P 500 short interest has hit its lowest level since the peak of the dot-com bubble.Please see below:Figure 8To explain the importance, fund managers’ cash positions and short sellers are akin to airbags in your car. In the event of a crash, airbags serve their purpose by cushioning the blow. Similarly, when the market crashes, short-sellers cover their positions (by purchasing the underlying asset), helping to alleviate the downward impact. Similarly, when fund managers’ cash positions are high, they have more ‘dry powder’ at their disposal to hit the bid and support prices. As a result, with both variables being excommunicated, nearly every investor is now driving with their pedal to the metal.Also encapsulating the speculative euphoria, last week, technology companies recorded their highest-ever weekly inflow.Please see below:Figure 9And not to be outdone, the Russell 2000 (a proxy for U.S. small caps) is also earning its fair share of speculative gold medals. On Feb. 4, I warned that money was pouring into companies that are on the brink of financial distress.I wrote:Figure 10The red line above represents companies with ‘weak balance sheets.’ Essentially, these are companies with high leverage ratios that rely on a strong economic backdrop to service their debt. At the end of 2019, these companies made up roughly 6% of the Russell 2000 index. Today, that figure has nearly doubled to an all-time high of more than 11%.Moreover, amid investors’ foray into the riskiest corners of the U.S. equity market, they’ve also bid the Russell 2000 (as of Feb. 8) to more than 39% above its 200-day moving average (also an all-time high).Please see below:Figure 11 - Source: thedailyshot.comIgnoring a sound diet, bond investors also continue to feast on junk food. On Feb. 8, the average yield on junk bonds (represented by Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield index) fell below 4% for the first-time ever.Please see below:Figure 12In addition, issuances of CCC-rated debt – the riskiest tier of junk – have been massively oversubscribed , as yield-hungry investors throw caution to the wind. More importantly though, the frenzy has lured even riskier companies to the market, with the group raising a record $52 billion in January alone.Even more indicative of the reckless behavior, the riskiest companies are also negotiating the riskiest loan terms. Peddling payment-in-kind (PIK) interest, junk bond issuers are now paying investors with IOUs. Unlike traditional bonds, where fixed cash flows are paid at pre-defined dates, PIK bonds are essentially loans on top of loans. Here, investors forego cash payments and add hypothetical interest payments to their bond’s principal balance. Then, at maturity, investors receive the entire proceeds.And what’s the problem?Well, as I’m sure you can tell, the IOUs are worthless if insolvency strikes first.Moving up the speculative ladder, in January, small traders bought call options at nearly 9x their 2019 pace. For context, ‘ s mall traders’ purchase 10 or less call option contracts and have exposure to 1,000 shares or less. As such, they’re usually the least sophisticated market participants.But because their Delta/Gamma splurge continues to impact dealers’ hedging activity, U.S. equity volume has gone completely parabolic. On Feb. 8, U.S. equities (trading at record prices) exchanged hands at nearly 4x their historical average.Please see below:Figure 13In addition, as more and more first-time buyers dip their toes into the equity pool, the ripple can be felt across Google Search trends. As of Feb. 8, online searches for “penny stocks” have exploded.Figure 14 - Source: thedailyshot.comEven more telling, retail interest in the stock market usually peaks during bouts of volatility. In a nutshell: when the stock market crashes and news outlets cover the story (that otherwise wouldn’t during normal times), it piques the interest of the general public. As a result, crashes tend to bring about investing tourists.Please see below:Figure 15 - Source: SentimenTraderTo explain the chart above, the blue line depicts the trend in “buy stocks” in Google searches over the last ~17 years. If you analyze the first two spikes in October 2008 and March 2020, they occurred alongside extreme market stress. However, if you look at the third spike on the right side of the chart (almost as high as March 2020), it’s occurred alongside U.S. equities current melt-up.The key takeaway?As the equity bubble grows larger, it’s sucking in more and more unsophisticated investors. However, as 2000 proved, overconfidence can give way to fear at the blink of an eye.As the final chart in today’s edition, investors’ belief in a utopian future has also come full circle.Please see below:Figure 16To explain, the white line above depicts the movement of Citigroup’s Global Risk Aversion Macro Index – which uses credit spreads, swap spreads and implied volatility to quantify investors’ perception of risk. As you can see, the index is now back to its pre-pandemic lows. More importantly though, the reading encapsulates all of the above and highlights the excessive complacency underwriting global equities.In conclusion, global stocks are living on a razor’s edge and their margin for error continues to dwindle. And due to gold and silver’s moderate-to-strong correlation with the S&P 500 (250-day correlations of 0.71 and 0.87 respectively), one false step could knock over the entire house of cards. As a result, it’s prudent to consider these cross-asset implications when assessing the future performance of the precious metals. However, once the events reach their precipice, the PMs will be able to resume their long-term uptrend.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 10.02.2021 21:58
If you were not paying attention, Platinum began to rally much higher over the past 3+ days – initiating a new breakout rally and pushing well above the $1250 level.  What you may not have noticed with this breakout move is that commodities are hot – and inflation is starting to heat up.  What does that mean for investors/traders?DAILY PLATINUM CHART SHOWS CLEAR BREAKOUT TRENDFirst, Platinum is used in various forms for industrial and manufacturing, as well as jewelry and numismatic functions (minting/collecting).  This move in Platinum is more likely related to the increasing inflationary pressures we've seen in the Commodity sector coupled with the increasing demand from the surging global economy (nearing a post-COVID-19 recovery).  The most important aspect of this move is the upward pricing pressure that will translate into Gold, Silver, and Palladium.We've long suggested that Platinum would likely lead a rally in precious metals and that a breakout move in platinum could prompt a broader uptrend in other precious metals.  Now, the combination of this type of rally in Platinum combined with the Commodity rally and the inflationary pressures suggests the global markets could be in for a wild ride over the next 12 to 24+ months.This Daily Platinum chart highlights the recent upside breakout rally that has prompted a rally from $1050 to $1250+.  If this rally continues to target the 100% Fibonacci price extension, near $1300, then it will become very clear that Platinum is rallying away from other precious metals.  If this coincides with a continued general Commodity price rally, then we may start to see an inflationary cycle setting up that really change things – very quickly.This type of “triple-whammy” is very similar to the commodity/inflationary price rally that took place in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  For those of you that don't remember this trend, commodities started to rally in the early/min-1970s, prompting Gold to rally a low price near $100 (in 1976) to a higher level near $195 (in 1978) – but that was just the beginning.  After that rally stalled a bit, a bigger commodity price rally took place in 1979 that prompted a much bigger Gold price rally and started an inflationary price cycle that prompted the US Fed to take aggressive action in curtailing inflation.  Gold rallied from $169 in late 1978 to over $870 in early 1980 – a 420% increase.PLATINUM MAY LEAD A COMMODITY PRICE RALLYWe believe the rally in Platinum is a strong signal that a Commodity price rally is initiating and that an inflationary price cycle may be starting.  If our research is correct, evidence of this cycle phase will continue over the next 6+ months where commodities will continue to rally overall and where market inflation will become very tangible in the US and across the globe.  This will prompt the US Fed, and global central banks, to begin to take immediate action to contain any potential run-away inflation concerns – obviously tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Platinum may rally above $1500 if this rally extends to the 200% Fibonacci price extension level – and that move may come very quickly.  This weekly Platinum chart, below, shows a green arrow that points to the 200% Fibonacci price extension level (near $1500). Remember, the commodity price rally in 1979/1980 lasted more than 24 months and prompted a big 400%+ rally in Gold.  If that type of rally were to happen today, Gold would rally to levels near $7500 (or higher).Pay attention to what is happening with Platinum and you'll start to understand the inflationary/institutional demand for this unique metal.  If our research is correct, we may see a new rally in Gold and Silver fairly quickly as Platinum acts as a catalyst for an inflationary cycle paired with a Commodity rally (very similar to the 1979 to 1980 rally). It is a great time to be an active trader in these markets.  One of our recent BAN trades just closed out for a 47% gain.  These big trends may be here for the next 24+ months and 2021 is going to be full of these types of trends and setups.  Quite literally, hundreds of these setups and trades will be generated over the next 3 to 6 months using the BAN Trader Pro technology.  The BAN Trader Pro technology does all the work for us.Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Learn how the BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups because staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Have a great day!
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Soft inflation data keeps USD pressured

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.02.2021 08:41
EURUSD Rises To A Two-Week High The euro currency continues to push higher, rising for the third consecutive day, to a two-week high.The gains, however, are slowing as price moves closer to the 1.2144 – 1.2177 level of resistance. We also continue to see the hidden bearish divergence on the chart, which could suggest a pullback.To the downside, price is likely to stall near the 1.2050 level of support for the moment. However, a close below this level could see the Feb 5 lows of 1.1952 come into the picture.If the current bullish moment continues, then the euro currency will need to break out above 1.2177 to confirm further upside.GBPUSD Pushes Higher But Gives Back Gains The British pound sterling continues to rise higher, marking a new high of 1.3866 intraday. But price action is pulling back after testing this level.The Stochastics oscillator is firmly in the overbought levels supporting the upside bias. For the moment, the downside remains limited until we see a lower high forming.Given the current pace of gains, the GBPUSD is seen testing the support area of 1.3790.A strong close on a weekly basis above this level is needed to confirm further upside.For the moment, the untested support level near 1.3759 will be the likely downside target in case of a correction.Oil Price Grinds Higher To A New 13-Month High WTI crude oil prices continue to maintain a strong bullish moment.Price action rose to fresh highs of 58.73. This makes price action likely to test the unfilled gap from January 20 last year at 59.47However, with price now trading below the trend line, this could act as a potential resistance for price action.To the downside, the support level at 57.35 is already tested albeit only slightly.Therefore, any declines could see this level coming under a firm re-test. Only a strong close below 57.35 will confirm a move down to the 53.77 level of support.Gold Prices Rejected Near 1850 The precious metal is struggling to breakout above 1850 as price action was firmly rejected near this level intraday.Overall, gold prices remain trading subdued compared to the gains made in the previous sessions.We expect the precious metal to maintain a sideways range between the 1850 resistance and 1817.80 level of support in the near term.The Stochastics oscillator is also starting to move a bit down from the overbought levels currently. This will likely mark an end to a three-day winning streak in gold.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

There is no “Wall of Money”

David Merkel David Merkel 05.02.2021 04:26
Photo Credit: Crypto360 aka Cryprocurrency360.com [sic] || When will this stupid concept die? Recently as I was reading Barron’s online, I ran across the following article: Small-Cap Stocks Could Keep on Rising. There’s a ‘Wall of Cash.’ I’ve subscribed to Barron’s for at least 20 years of my life. Really, I expect better of them. The meme that money flows in and out of the market is hard to kill. Stocks rise; money must have flowed in. Stocks fall; money must have flowed out. Some of this comes from the impulse that journalists must find a reason for the market action of each day, when really — there’s a lot of noise. I have a few simple ways to explain this. Imagine that market player A wants to buy 100 shares of XYZ Corp at $50/share, and market player B wants to sell 100 shares of XYZ Corp at $50/share. Bam! Shares flow from B to A, and money flows from A to B. Total shares are the same. Total money in brokerage accounts is the same. The total amount of money is unaffected by trading. Now, there are commissions. At least, intelligent people pay commissions. When I was a corporate bond manager, if my broker said, “I’ll just cross them to you to get the deal done,” I would say, “No, I will give you a plus. (1/64th of a dollar per $100 of principal) My broker must always be paid.” Why did I do this? It kept the relationships neat. When brokers don’t get paid, they look for hidden ways to earn their money. I much prefer my costs be explicit and fixed. (And, as a corporate bond manager, I valued loyalty. I had good relationships with my brokers.) But by and large, trading does not affect aggregate cash levels. What does affect aggregate cash levels? Increases Cash DividendsMergers and acquisitions where cash is paid, whether partly or in full.Stock buybacksDecreases Cash Primary and secondary public offerings of stock.Conversion of convertible securities.Rights offeringsAnd, there are probably more than what I have listed here, but the key condition for aggregate cash levels to change is that money must flow into or out of corporations, and shares must flow the opposite way. But none of these changes happen through trading. They happen as a result of corporate actions. Then Why Do Stock Prices Change? Stock prices change because of two reasons, one minor, one major. The minor one: as trading goes on, either buyers or sellers are more desperate to get the trade done. Whichever side is more desperate pushes the price. The major one: when markets are closed, people change their minds. Data builds up, and before any significant amount of trading happens, prices shift to reflect changed estimates of what the securities in question are worth. To prove this, I will tell you that intraday trading is noise, and little return happens there. But while the market is closed — that is when returns happen. The difference between the prior close and the next market open explain all of the returns of the market over the last 20+ years. The difference between the current days open and close are close to zero. Most of the reason why stock prices change is that people as a group change their minds as to the value of stocks. Trading has a modest impact on that. But most of the change in value happens while the market is closed. (Remember that corporations mostly break news while the market is closed.) If you understand this, you get the following benefits: You will ignore most media explanations of moves in the stock marketThe primary market will guide you — looking at M&A and IPOs.You will ignore the so-called “wall of money” which does not exist.Instead, you might notice how much of the total assets in aggregate portfolios are in stocks versus everything else.Prices matter. Buy low, sell high. But don’t attribute anything to the “wall of money.” It is a bogus concept, and should be ignored. The biggest changes in prices happen when the market is closed, and trading is limited.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.02.2021 16:03
Yesterday was a prelude, a little preview of things to come. We better get used to brief and shallow corrections again, after being lulled by the many preceding sessions. It appears that we‘re now going to get the consolidation period even as the overall S&P 500 metrics remain in a healthy territory. This is the (print-and-spend-happy) world we live in, and we better not fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. So, for all the tech bashers, we‘re going higher – like it or not. Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Its Internals A second day of hesitation, this time with a thrust to the downside. Comfortably repelled, but still. Is it just one of a kind, or more would follow over the coming sessions? I think this corrective span has a bit further to run in time really. Remember my yesterday‘s words though – the bears are just rocking the boat, that‘s all. The caption describes nicely the mixed momentary situation in market breadth. I am looking especially at new highs new lows right now for whether they would be able to keep the relative high ground, or not, and what would accompany that. Now, it‘s amber light. A supportive warning sign comes from the put/call ratio – we‘re getting a bit too complacent here again. Well worth watching. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) wavered yesterday as well, yet bottom fishers appeared, pushing up the volume. The bond markets are clearly buying the dip here. High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still lining up closely with the S&P 500 index. Pulling in tandem, these aren‘t showing any momentary divergence. When it comes to the high yield corporate bonds to all corporate bonds (PHB:$DJCB) ratio, the picture gets different, as the riskier end of the corporate bond spectrum isn‘t firing on all cylinders. That‘s part of the watchout story justification. Technology, Value and Growth Technology (XLK ETF) hadn‘t suffered a profound setback really yesterday. The volume wasn‘t there, and half of the intraday losses were recouped – the bears weren‘t serious, and as the caption says, be wary of tech bubble callers constantly warning about significant corrections with unclear timings. Both tech and S&P 500 are primed to go to much higher levels before things get really ridiculous. Also, remember that since September, the sector has been not at its strongest really. Here comes the rotation between value and growth – given the current status, tech has been underperforming. It‘s the other sectors that are now catching up since the start of Feb. All in all, the chart doesn‘t scream imbalance – the accompanying S&P 500 advance has been relatively orderly. Gold & Silver Today‘s precious metals section will be shorter than usually, because the many bullish factors discussed throughout the week, remain in place. Just check out the metals & miners ratios, or yet another timely call of the dollar top. Let‘s dive into the gold and silver price action that I tweeted about earlier today. My open long position remains profitable, and the very short-term question remains what‘s next. Regardless of the upper knots, I don‘t see the short-term uptrend as exhausted, and you all know pretty well my medium- and long-term bullish case (stronger for silver than for gold in 2021 really). Despite being quite hot in the short run, silver isn‘t willing to correct to any kind of reasonable target. I view the current indecision as part of an ongoing consolidation, and don‘t discount the bullish implications. The key takeaway however is, how much would have to happen to flip this (and gold‘s) chart bearish. I remain cautiously optimistic in the short run, and very optimistic as regards the medium- and long-term. Summary The stock market keeps holding gained ground, having defended yesterday‘s values largely. Given the signs of creeping deterioration, which is however not strong enough to break the bull‘s back, let alone jeopardize it, the short-term caution in the 3,900 vicinity is still warranted. The gold and silver bulls are consolidating gains, and the bullish case for precious metals remains strong. Crucially, it‘s not about the dollar here, but about the sectoral internals, decoupling from rising Treasury yields, and holding firm against corporate ones. The new upleg is knocking on the door, and patience will be richly rewarded. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.02.2021 17:08
Tesla has supported the price of Bitcoin, but it can affect gold as well.The bull market in cryptocurrencies continues. As you can see in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has recently increased to almost $47,000 (as of February 10). The parabolic rise seems to be disturbing, as such quick rallies often end abruptly.However, it’s worth noting that the price of Bitcoin has partially jumped because of the increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate form of currency by the established big companies. In particular, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has recently published a series of tweets that significantly affected the price of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other cryptocurrencies.Furthermore, Tesla updated its investment policy to include alternative assets as possible investments. In the last 10-k filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2021, Tesla stated:In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity.Importantly, these assets also include gold :As part of the policy, which was duly approved by the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, we may invest a portion of such cash in certain alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds, and other assets as specified in the future.This means that Tesla wants to diminish its position in the U.S. dollar and to diversify its cash holdings. In other words, the company lost some of its confidence in the greenback and started to look for alternatives. So, it seems that Musk and other investors are afraid of expansion in public debt , higher inflation , and the dollar’s debasement .And rightly so! The continued fiscal stimulus will expand the fiscal deficit even further, ballooning the federal debt. With the budget resolution passed last week, only a simple majority will be needed in the Senate to get Biden’s $1.9 trillion package approved, a majority that Democrats have.Remember also that the U.S. economy added only 49,000 jobs in January , while 227,000 jobs were lost in December (revised down by 87,000!). The poor non-farm payrolls will strengthen the odds of a larger fiscal stimulus and easier fiscal and monetary policies.Hence, combined with the ultra-dovish monetary policy and a Fed more tolerant to inflation, the upcoming fiscal support could ultimately be a headwind for the dollar. Initially, the prospect of fiscal support caused positive reactions on the financial markets, but as the euphoria passes, investors start to examine the long-term consequences of easy money and the large expansion of government spending. Importantly, the larger the debt, the deeper the debt trap , and the longer the zero interest rates policy will stay with us, as the Fed won’t try to upset the Treasury.Implications for GoldWhat does Tesla’s move imply for the precious metals market? Well, we are not observing the kind of rally in gold that we are currently witnessing in the cryptocurrencies sphere (see the chart below). And – given the size of the gold market – it’s unlikely that Musk & Co. could ignite a mania similar to the one seen in Dogecoin. The gold market is simply too big. Even the silver market could be too large for similar speculative plays – as the failure of the recent attempt of a short squeeze has shown.However, the update of Tesla’s investment policy is a confirmation of gold as a safe-haven asset and portfolio diversifier . If other big companies follow suit, and we see an actual reallocation of funds from the U.S. dollar towards gold, the price of the yellow metal will get an invigorating electric impulse .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Grayscale Dives Deeper Into DeFi with Yearn, SushiSwap Trust Filings

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 12.02.2021 06:18
Less than a month after institutional crypto fund giant Grayscale first pivoted to decentralized finance (DeFi), it has filed a number of new trust filings, including Yearn Finance and SushiSwap. The world’s largest crypto asset trust for institutional investors, Grayscale, is diving deeper into the DeFi sector, with more trust flings in addition to Aave and Polkadot which it filed last month. The Delaware corporate registry, Grayscale’s statutory trustee for the state, received the filings on Feb. 10, following six filings on Jan. 27. In addition to the two above, uniswap (UNI), cosmos (ATOM), monero (XMR), and cardano (ADA) trust filings were added and on Feb. 1 it registered a theta (THETA) trust. The new filings include DeFi aggregator Yearn Finance, Uniswap clone SushiSwap, Compound Finance, crypto lending stalwart MakerDAO, synthetic asset platform Synthetix, and decentralized storage platform Blockstack. In late 2020, Grayscale also registered trusts for chainlink (LINK), basic attention token (BAT), decentraland (MANA), tezos (XTZ), filecoin (FIL), and livepeer (LPT). Grayscale now has 33 registered trusts in the state, however just nine are currently active. In mid-January 2021, the firm dissolved its XRP trust following Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The filings do not mean that these trusts will definitely be launched, they have just been registered as limited liability companies in preparation. AUM Hits $36.8 Billion The firm’s latest assets under management figure is a whopping $36.8 billion, an increase of 47%, since BeInCrypto reported Grayscale’s first DeFi trust filings on Jan. 29. 02/11/21 UPDATE: Net Assets Under Management, Holdings per Share, and Market Price per Share for our Investment Products.Total AUM: $36.8 billion$BTC $BCH $ETH $ETC $ZEN $LTC $XLM $ZEC pic.twitter.com/d7I2sPMwZ4— Grayscale (@Grayscale) February 11, 2021Grayscale’s current trusts are dominated by bitcoin (BTC), which represents about 82% of the total with $30.2 billion. The ethereum (ETH) trust has around 15%, with $5.5 billion, and the rest is distributed between a number of smaller crypto trusts including litecoin (LTC), bitcoin cash (BCH), stellar lumens (XLM), ethereum classic (ETC), and zcash (ZEC). DeFi Tokens Hit ATHs The news appears to have given a boost to these DeFi-related tokens, as YFI has skyrocketed 26% to reach a new all-time high of $47,400, according to CoinGecko. Following somewhat lackluster price action, YFI has finally awoken and is moving upwards again. SUSHI also hit an ATH a couple of hours ago of $17.30, while COMP is close to its own trading just below $500, at the time of writing. MKR is trading flat on the day just over $2,500, while SNX has also made an all-time high of $27. DeFiPulse is reporting the total TVL across the DeFi sector at a record $40 billion, but it is likely to be higher since some listings are omitted. The post Grayscale Dives Deeper Into DeFi with Yearn, SushiSwap Trust Filings appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Gold During the Pandemic Winter

Gold During the Pandemic Winter

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.02.2021 14:36
The pandemic winter will take longer than we thought. The longer we struggle with the coronavirus, the brighter gold could shine.A long, long time ago, there was a bad virus, called the coronavirus , that killed many people all around the world and severely hit the global economy. Luckily, smart scientists developed vaccines that defeated the coronavirus and ended the pandemic . Since then, humankind lived happily – and healthy – ever after.Sounds beautiful, doesn’t it? This is the story we were all supposed to believe. The narrative was that the development of vaccines would end the pandemic and we would quickly return to normalcy. However, it turns out that this was all a fairy tale – the real struggle with the coronavirus is more challenging than we thought .First, the rollout of vaccinations has been very, very slow . As the chart below shows, on February 1, 2021, only about 1.77 percent of Americans became fully vaccinated against COVID-19.Of course, full protection requires two doses, so it takes some time. But in many countries, the share of the population which received at least one dose of the vaccine is also disappointingly low, as the chart below shows.It means that our progress towards herd immunity is really sluggish . At such a pace, we are losing the race between injections and infections. And we will not reach herd immunity until the second half of the year or even the next winter…Second, there is the problem of mutations . The new strains are rapidly popping up which poses a great risk in our fight with the coronavirus. One of these new variants was identified in the United Kingdom and quickly spread through the country. Although it’s not more lethal, it’s more infectious, which makes it more dangerous overall. And the more variants emerge, it’s more likely that we could see a mutation resistant to our current treatments and vaccines. Indeed, some of the mutations change the surface protein, spike, and have been shown to reduce the effectiveness of combating the coronavirus by monoclonal antibodies.The really bad part is that these two problems are strongly connected. The longer the vaccinations take, the more active cases we have. The more active cases we have, the more mutations happen, as each new infection implies more copies of the coronavirus, which gives it more chances to mutate. The more mutations occur, the higher the odds of a really nasty strain. Therefore, the longer the vaccination process takes, the more probable it is that it will not work and that vaccine-resistant variants might emerge.Given that in many countries vaccinations are practically the only rational strategy to fight the virus, the vaccine-resistant strain would be a serious blow. Surely, some vaccines could be relatively easily updated, but their rollout would still require time – time we don’t have.What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, the more sluggish the vaccinations, the higher the risk that something goes wrong and that our battle with COVID-19 will take more time. The longer the fight, the slower the economic recovery. The longer and bumpier road toward herd immunity, the slower lifting sanitary restrictions and social distancing measures, and the later we come back to normalcy. The longer we live in Zombieland, the easier fiscal and monetary policies will be, and the brighter gold will shine.Another issue is that we shouldn’t forget about the possibility of the pandemic’s long economic shadow. A recent paper has examined the effects of 19 major previous pandemics, finding a long shadow of the economic carnage. Although financial markets are still (wrongly, I believe) betting on a V-shaped recovery, the history suggests that a double dip is likely, as eight of the last 11 recessions experienced it. Recessions sound golden, don’t they?However, there is one caveat here. The sensitivity of economic activity to COVID-19 infections and restrictions has significantly diminished since the Great Lockdown in the spring of 2020. There are three reasons for that. First, people fear the coronavirus less. Second, epidemic restrictions are better targeted and implemented. Third, entrepreneurs adopted better to cope with the epidemic.The greater resilience of the economy means a smaller downturn and fewer long-term scars, which will limit any upward COVID-19 related impact on gold prices . But a softer economic impact also implies a quicker recovery, which – together with the upcoming big government stimulus – could increase consumer prices, thus supporting gold prices through the inflation channel. Indeed, commodity prices have been surging in 2021, so gold may follow suit.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not?

S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.02.2021 16:50
Stocks are clinging to the 3,900 level, and the bulls aren‘t yielding. Without much fanfare, both the sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed and compacent end of the spectrum again. How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.Gold‘s hardship is another cup of tea, standing in stark comparison to how well silver and platinum are doing. At the same time, the dollar hasn‘t really moved to the upside – there is no dollar breakout. If the greenback were to break to the upside, that would mean a dollar bull market, which I don't view as a proposition fittingly describing the reality – I called the topping dollar earlier this week. The world reserve currency will remain on the defensive this year, and we saw not a retest, but a local top.This has powerful implications for the precious metals, where the only question is whether we get a weak corrective move to the downside still, or whether we can base in a narrow range, followed by another upleg (think spring). February isn't the strongest month for precious metals seasonally, true, but it isn't a disaster either. As has been the case throughout the week, I‘ll update and present the evidence of internal sectoral strength also today.One more note concerning the markets – in our print-and-spend-happy world, where the give or take $1.9T stimulus will sooner or later come in one way or another, we better prepare on repricing downside risk in the precious metals, and also better not to fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this just doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. All those serious correction calls have to wait – in tech and elsewhere, for we‘re going higher overall – like it or not.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsThird day of hesitation, this time again with a thrust to the downside. Marginally increasing volume, which speaks of not too much conviction by either side yet. As the very short-term situation remains tense, my yesterday‘s words still apply today:(…) I think this corrective span has a bit further to run in time really. (…) the bears are just rocking the boat, that‘s all.The market breadth indicators are deteriorating, without stock prices actually following them down. Thus far, the correction is indeed shaping to be one in time and characterized by mostly sideways trading. Unless you look at the following chart.Volatility has died down recently, yet a brief spike (not reaching anywhere high, just beating the 24 level) wouldn‘t be unimaginable to visit us by the nearest Wednesday. In all likelihood, it would be accompanied by lower stock prices. Well worth watching.Credit Markets and TechThere is a growing discrepancy between high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and its investment grade counterpart (LQD ETF). Both leading credit market ratios have been diverging not only since the end of Jan, but practically throughout 2021. The theme of rising yields is exerting pressure on the higher end of the debt market as the stock investment fever goes on – that‘s my take.No, this is not a bubble – not a parabolic one. The tech sector is gradually assuming leadership in the S&P 500 advance, accompanied by microrotations as value goes into favor and falls out of it, relatively speaking. Higher highs are coming, earnings are doing great, and valuations aren‘t an issue still.Gold, Silver and RatiosUnder pressure right as we speak ($1,815), the yellow metal‘s technical outlook hasn‘t flipped bearish. Should we get to last Thursday‘s lows, it would happen on daily indicators ready to flash a bullish divergence once prices stabilize. But for all the intense bearish talk, we haven‘t broken below the late Nov lows.For those inclined so, I am raising the arbitrage trade possibility. Long silver, short gold would be consistent with my prior assessment of the gold-silver ratio going down. Similarly to bullish gold bets, that‘s a longer-term trade, which however wouldn‘t likely take much patience to unfold and stick.A bullish chart showing that gold isn‘t following the rising yields all that closely these days. Decoupling from the Treasury yields is a positive sign for the sector, and exactly what you would expect given the (commodity) inflation and twin deficits biting.Silver continues to trade in its bullish consolidation, and unlike in gold, its short-term bullish flag formation remains intact. The path of least resistance for the white metal remains higher.Gold juniors (black line) keep their relative strength vs. the senior gold miners, and the mining sector keeps sending bullish signals, especialy when silver miners enter the picture.SummaryThe stock market tremors aren‘t over, and the signs of deterioration keep creeping in. The bull run isn‘t however in jeopardy, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction right now.The gold bulls find it harder to defend their gains, unlike the silver ones. That‘s the short-term objective situation, regardless of expansive monetary and fiscal policies, real economy recovery, returning inflation and declining U.S. dollar. The new upleg keeps knocking on the door, and patience will be richly rewarded.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Microsoft and Enjin Roll Out NFT-Based Reward System to Praise Women in Science

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 12.02.2021 10:26
Microsoft has teamed up with gaming-based blockchain platform Enjin to roll out customizable non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The tokens will be compatible and transferrable with sandbox-adventure video game Minecraft. According to an announcement made on Feb. 11, the initiative, the brainchild of both companies, has been launched to mark International Day of Women and Girls in Science. To mark the occasion, Microsoft has unveiled Enjin’s blockchain-based Azure Space Mystery mini-game which distributes exclusive NFTs as rewards among the community for performing learning tasks. “Players will work to save the International Space Station, while learning from and celebrating prominent European female scientists, including Caroline Herschel, Mary Somerville, Hypatia and Raymonde de Laroche,” the announcement reads. Following Azure Mystery Mansion and Azure Maya Mystery we present to you: #AzureSpaceMystery https://t.co/JEeQeJD2x8 Complete this text-based game and get to know amazing women in (space) technology pic.twitter.com/j5e4DGo0O0— Microsoft Developer Western Europe (@Msdev_WE) February 11, 2021Enjin’s Other Recent Developments In recent months, Enjin has been actively partnering with tech companies around the world. Last December, the blockchain firm revealed a collaboration with Atari, one of the oldest names in the video game industry. The partnership is set to bring the development of a decentralized gaming ecosystem, wherein Enjin will be creating Atari-based NFTs usable in its gaming portfolio. Last month, the world saw the partnership between Enjin and Kizuna and Miss Bitcoin to launch an NFT charity program. Kizuna is a hub for bitcoin (BTC) donations with no handling fees, and Miss Bitcoin is a popular blockchain entrepreneur. As BeInCrypto previously reported, the first campaign of the philanthropic program will involve tokenized art created by Japanese artists. Funds raised from the campaign will be directed to the Dream Possibility (DxP), a non-profit organization providing help for teenagers facing coronavirus-related issues. Moreover, in January, Enjin gained approval from the Japanese Virtual Currency Exchange Association to have its native ENJ token approved in Japan. To receive it, Enjin went through a year-and-a-half regulatory due diligence. NFTs Have Become Increasingly Popular NFTs are indeed gaining traction these days. On Feb. 10, for example, Pokemon-inspired blockchain gaming platform Axie Infinity reported the largest NFT sale in history. A user going by the moniker “Flying Falcon” doled out 888.25 ethereum (ETH) (approximately $1.5 million, at the time). The new owner of the NFT set commented: “We’re witnessing a historic moment; the rise of digital nations with their own system of clearly delineated, irrevocable property rights. Axie land has entertainment value, social value, and economic value in the form of future resource flows.” As DeFi researcher Cooper Turley outlined in his recent blog post, there are already almost 50 different platforms to mint NFTs. The post Microsoft and Enjin Roll Out NFT-Based Reward System to Praise Women in Science appeared first on BeInCrypto.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

The profit maze of Silver - 13.02.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.02.2021 15:55
We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Grayscale Purchases 53,000 ETH in One Day

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 13.02.2021 17:30
Cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode points out that Grayscale has bought 195,000 ETH in February. Grayscale continues to have an appetite for cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode. Since the beginning of 2021, the value of Grayscale’s Ethereum under management has doubled. Glassnode tweeted that the ETH under Grayscale’s management now equals $5.5 billion. Some of this increase, no doubt, is due to the token’s new all-time-high prices. However, Grayscale made a series of purchases as well. One of these purchases, on Feb. 11, included 53,000 ETH. Since the Grayscale #Ethereum Trust reopened in February, at total of 195,000 ETH have flown into the trust.53,000 #ETH were added yesterday alone.The current AUM of the ETHE Trust is $5.5B – more than double since the beginning of the year.Chart https://t.co/vMSR92txy9 pic.twitter.com/SgZ3ntLDqk— glassnode (@glassnode) February 12, 2021Grayscale itself posted a tweet on Feb. 11 regarding its holdings. 02/11/21 UPDATE: Net Assets Under Management, Holdings per Share, and Market Price per Share for our Investment Products.Total AUM: $36.8 billion$BTC $BCH $ETH $ETC $ZEN $LTC $XLM $ZEC pic.twitter.com/d7I2sPMwZ4— Grayscale (@Grayscale) February 11, 2021February Reopening The Ethereum purchases come after Grayscale reopened its Ethereum trust to qualified investors on Feb. 1. The fund had been closed over the winter holidays, and so institutional investors wanting to ride the ETH rising tide had to sit it out. Also in the first week, Grayscale purchased 83,678 ETH for a total of $139 million.This brought the company’s total Assets Under Management to $30 billion at then-current prices. Grayscale Diversifying The tweet from Grayscale also shows how much the company has diversified since bursting onto the scene in 2020. There are now trusts for Litecoin, Stellar, and ZCash. An XRP fund has been delisted, however. This is due to the potential exposure to (not to mention lack of demand for) XRP because of the SEC lawsuits against Ripple and two of its CEOs. In spite of the XRP removal, the company continues to grow. It filed with the State of Delaware for a variety of trusts related to DeFi projects. These include Aave, Polkadot, Uniswap (UNI), Cosmos (ATOM), Monero (XMR), Theta, (THETA) and Cardano (ADA). In total, Grayscale has filed for 33 registered trusts with the State of Delaware. Nine are currently live. Is this the End? Grayscale is by far the biggest active participant in the cryptocurrency market at the moment. However, it is possible that this will change over the course of 2021. On Feb. 11, the Canadian firm Purpose Investments launched North America’s first Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). The Purpose Bitcoin ETF will trade on the Toronto Exchange.  As ETFs have been the holy grail of institutional investment into cryptocurrency since 2017, when Gemini Trust applied for a bitcoin ETF, this news could shake the institutional investment world. If an American bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC, the future flow of money to Grayscale by institutions who cannot or will not directly hold BTC is no longer guaranteed. The post Grayscale Purchases 53,000 ETH in One Day appeared first on BeInCrypto.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.02.2021 20:20
The recent rally in Marijuana and Alternative Pharma/Agriculture stocks has been impressive, to say the least.  One thing we have to remember about this sector is that it rallied to highs in 2018 and 2019, then fell out of favor for many months.  The anticipation of this new sector emerging within the US, and across many areas of the globe, prompted quite a bit of excitement after 2016 when many US states voted to legalize Marijuana. Even before this date, the alternative medicine and consumer product use related to Marijuana has been heavily speculated on by investors/traders.If we were to consider the out-of-favor phase of this sector over the past 15+ months, after the rally/hype phase which took place in 2017 and early 2018, we've seen many cannabis stocks collapse 70% to 85% or more recently.  This downward price trend likely set up a number of incredible opportunities based on expanded marketplace opportunities, enterprise valuations, and longer-term consumer/pharmaceutical use applications for CBD and other chemical extracts.  Additionally, we need to also consider what would happen if a consolidation phase were to take place in this industry – how would cannabis leaders play a role in acquiring smaller, yet important, firms with innovative technology/solutions.The MJ Alternative Harvest ETF Weekly chart below highlights the incredible decline in the cannabis sector after the August 2018 peak. MJ fell from a high of $45.40 to a low of $9.34 – representing a -86% decline.  Aurora Cannabis (ACB) peaked at 150.34 in October 2018 and recently bottomed near $3.71 – representing a massive -97.5% decline.Over the past two months or longer, this sector has started to heat up again with a moderately strong rally setting up.  Over the past 14+ days, a big upside rally initiated pushing price levels upward by +80% to +150% or more from recent lows.  Historically, when one considers the longer-term potential for growth, revenues and consolidation within this industry sector, we believe this rally may be just starting.If we were to consider a potential continued focus on the Cannabis/Alternative Agriculture supply and industry sector over the next 4+ years, we would have to take a look at the deep decline in price levels recently and the opportunity for some type of industry consolidation over the next 5 to 10+ years.  Obviously, this industry/sector is here to stay, and, much like the Alcoholic Beverage industry in the 1960s to early 2000s, we are in a very early stage of the legalization, expansion, and consolidation phase of this sector.Using these two sectors for comparison, the first question is just how big is the Cannabis/Alt marketplace compared to similar types of markets?  The Cannabis sector currently makes up about 1/10th of the total US Alcoholic beverage annual sales ($25.3B Cannabis: $252.82B Alcohol - https://www.statista.com/topics/1709/alcoholic-beverages/).  From a conservative standpoint, Cannabis consumers very likely cross-over into the Alcoholic beverage consumer market on a fairly high basis.  This means the consumer market for Cannabis is very likely 60% to 75%, or more, of the Alcoholic-beverage market.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!The second question should be what additional advantages does the Cannabis/Alt sector have that differentiate it from the Alcoholic-beverage industry?  That answer lies in an unknown factor – the pharmaceutical/consumer product use that is currently in its infancy.  CBD has already shown great promise, but the long-term capabilities, use, and application of various alternative chemical compounds found in various strains of plants, mushrooms, and other organic sources are still part of the “X-Factor”.The third question in our minds becomes, how long before these unknowns/X-Factor components become a reality?  We can't attempt to put the answer into dates or predictions, but we do believe the speed at which these organic compounds will be introduced and mapped-out into potential medical-use solutions has been clearly illustrated by the speed at which the COVID-19 vaccines/medical advancements have been delivered.  These solutions only took “months” to come to market.  If the same type of capabilities were applied to the Cannabis/Alternative marketplace, and thus toward the multiple supply/innovation companies within this sector, a massive boost of growth, innovation, and consolidation within this sector over time. Let's take a look at some current statistics & data below.Marijuana Tax Revenues by state appear to be strong and growing.  One thing to consider about this Tax data is that a relatively large portion of actual sales are still going unreported (as illicit transactions).Source: https://loudcloudhealth.com/resources/marijuana-tax-revenue-by-state-map/Legalization & Acceptance of Marijuana within the US has now reached almost every state – with only six states still showing Marijuana is fully illegal.  All other states have adopted Marijuana use in some form over the past 5+ years.Source: https://disa.com/map-of-marijuana-legality-by-stateThe US Cannabis Consumer Market is expected to increase by more than 15 to 20% in 2021 after more than doubling in 2020.  From 2018 to 2021, the total consumer market was expected to increase by more than 350%.  By the end of 2022, that ratio increases to levels beyond +450% compared to the 2018 levels.Source: https://mattermark.com/vc-investment-sparks-high-times-american-cannabis-industry/Obviously, the deep price decline in the Marijuana sector, which recently ended, did not properly reflect the market capabilities and expectations for future growth and earnings.  We believe this sector could become one of the hottest sectors for growth over the next 2+ years and it may prompt a massive consolidation phase within this industry which will create potential behemoth conglomerate Cannabis firms – very much like the Alcoholic Beverage industry.I am able to find these trends, like MJ, by using my Best Asset Now strategy. My subscribers and I are loving the strategy as we closed our MJ trade last week after taking profits at the 7,%, 15%, 20%, and 48% levels in two weeks! This is how we make consistent profits from the BAN strategy while still getting that awesome, excitable feeling from being in an explosive trade!!Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Learn how the BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups because staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.In the second part of this article, we'll explore various Marijuana sector charts showing where traders may find real opportunities for profits if the current rally phase continues.  This exciting industry sector may become one of the hottest sectors for traders and may prompt a massive consolidation phase within this industry over the next 5+ years.  Get ready for some big trends and opportunities.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce Calls for Clarity on Regs

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 14.02.2021 15:22
As Bitcoin closes in on $50,000, a significant psychological price level, one of the SEC’s top brass calls for additional regulatory oversight. Nicknamed “Crypto Mom” by her supporters due to her positive outlook regarding cryptocurrencies, Securities and Exchange (SEC) Commissioner Hester Pierce is calling for additional clarity into cryptocurrency regulatory oversight. This comes following the recent announcement by Telsa stating that it purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. Furthermore, Mastercard, one of the world’s leading transaction platforms, will be integrating cryptocurrency payment options. When asked about the future of crypto regulations, Pierce said, “It’s not only that there have been calls for clarity for some time and that a new administration brings the chance to take a fresh look, but it also is a moment where it seems others in the marketplace are also taking a fresh look”. No One Wants Another XRP Debacle As cryptocurrencies garner more users and continue to smash through record highs, regulators may deem additional oversight necessary. This can affect stakeholders throughout the ecosystem, companies, project founds, partners, investors, traders, and more. The potential trouble with the lack of regulation is being experienced by Ripple Labs and two of its executives. Charges recently filed by the SEC accuse the parties of selling over $1 billion worth of unregulated securities. They state that XRP is a security and its lack of regulatory compliance is illegal. The SEC has made definitive statements about Bitcoin and Ether. It deems neither a security, but has not provided much insight outside of those two assets. This has heavily irritated some XRP investors, claiming that the SEC had over seven years since XRP’s creation to bring this up, and that bringing it up now only harms investors. Since the announcement, many trading platforms and XRP partners have removed the asset or temporarily ceased operations with the network. We may not know precisely how this suit will turn out. However, it shows that the lack of clear regulatory oversight leads to massive blunders. These may hurt every day traders when it comes to an end. Although it has since begun to recover, XRP saw a gigantic price decrease following the charges. Potential Wall Street Collusion Pushes the Masses Towards Decentralization The debauchery displayed by Wall Street exposed another fundamental reason for enhanced cryptocurrency regulations. Following an uprising from a community of Redditors who decided to fight back against institutional investors, many exchanges shut down trading, stopping the ability to purchase specific stocks and directly benefiting the elite shorting the market. This unadulterated display of greed has shown a whole new generation of investors just how corrupt the financial ecosystem is. They must do something to change it. With the growth of decentralized exchanges, and some hoping to one day host and trade regulated securities, more clarity is needed on how to run operations. Hopefully, Pierce and her fellow regulators can implement user focused regulations that provide a safety cushion to stakeholders in the industry. The post SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce Calls for Clarity on Regs appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Mark Cuban: Ethereum Better Than Bitcoin as Store of Value

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 14.02.2021 19:54
TV personality and investor Mark Cuban thinks Ethereum might be a better store of value than Bitcoin. Shark Tank: Ethereum vs Bitcoin In a recent podcast with DeFi blog The Defiant, billionaire investor Mark Cuban suggests Ethereum (ETH) could be the future of stores of value. Cuban, famous for his appearance on the television series Shark Tank, says cryptocurrency’s second token could even outdo Bitcoin (BTC) in that area. Cuban’s comments surprise few who know him. He questioned BTC in the past, and called its price surges bubble-like. Moreover, the sports billionaire also made clear in the podcast his excitement for smart contracts. More generally, however, Cuban is a fan of cryptocurrency. He instructed his basketball team, the Dallas Mavericks, to accept cryptocurrency payments. Moreover, in a recent ask-me-anything (AMA) on Reddit, Cuban revealed his cryptocurrency holdings, which include decentralized finance project Aave (AAVE). The Celebrity Effect Cuban isn’t the only celebrity or billionaire for that matter with a keen interest in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. As has been thoroughly covered, Tesla’s Elon Musk is an enthusiastic participant in the cryptocurrency world. The eccentric billionaire owner of SpaceX tweets on cryptocurrency’s own everlasting meme, Dogecoin (DOGE). Last year, when Musk tweeted “One word: Doge”, the canine-themed cryptocurrency leapt over 1000%. Indeed, the continuous tweeting by the billionaire on the topic of cryptocurrencies led to a study that looked at the effects of those tweets on crypto-prices. Unsurprisingly, the study found a significant “abnormal effect” by Musk on both DOGE and BTC. Musk’s popularization of cryptocurrencies on Twitter even led to a number of other celebrities, Snoop Dogg among them, endorsing DOGE, approving its mainstream meme status. A New Class Although celebrities potentially treat cryptocurrency space as a vehicle for entertainment, a new class of cryptocurrency owning business is seriously investing in the space. Take MicroStrategy, for example. The business analytics firm made headlines in December for its bid to raise $600 million, all of which was destined for BTC. Recently, it purchased $10 million worth of the top-cryptocurrency in one go. Moreover, Musk’s own Tesla recently revealed in a filing that it scooped up $1.5 billion worth of BTC in January. Celebrities tend to follow the popular culture and vice versa. When Cuban, Musk and Snoop Dogg show interest in the industry, investment advice aside, they reflect public interest. As Bitcoin currently hovers under $50,000, more will likely have something to say. The post Mark Cuban: Ethereum Better Than Bitcoin as Store of Value appeared first on BeInCrypto.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

GBPUSD Rebounds, Brushing Aside Weak GDP Numbers

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.02.2021 07:23
Slow start to the week with China and US markets closedEURUSD Recovers From A Three-Day Low The euro currency touched a three-day low on Friday at 1.2080 before recovering. Price action is subdued for the past three sessions with a lower high currently forming.This comes after price slipped to a three-month low at 1.1951 on February 5th. The downside bias is starting to build up.The common currency will need to rise above the recent swing high of 1.2187 in order for the upside bias to hold.Failure to do so could potentially open the way for further declines, especially if the swing low of 1.1951 gives way.For the moment, the support area near 1.2050 will be critical to the downside. The Stochastics oscillator is moving up and could signal another test to the resistance area near 1.2144 – 1.2177.The British pound sterling made a sharp recovery with price action on Friday posting a strong rebound.The gains put the GBPUSD back near the previous highs at 1.3866. But with the Stochastics oscillator signaling a lower high, we could see a pullback.The support level near 1.3759 remains in scope to the downside. As long as the cable holds gains above this level, there is room for further gains.But a close below this level could potentially see a larger correction taking place.For the moment, the uptrend remains intact with price making consistently higher lows.Oil Advances To A New Eleven-Month High WTI Crude oil prices resumed the bullish momentum following three days of subdued trading. Prices settled at 59.55 on Friday, marking a new 11-month high.The rebound comes after oil prices briefly fell to the support area near 57.35. This potentially cements the 57.35 level as a strong support area in case of any downside.Despite the gains, oil prices are now nearing a multi-year resistance area between the 65.5 and 61.5 levels.Price action has on previous occasions failed to break past this level.Therefore, unless there is a strong momentum led breakout, we could see price action consolidating in this resistance area.Gold Prices Find Support Near 1817.89 The declines in the precious metal stalled after prices once again tested the 1817.89 level of support. A retest of this level, alongside the Stochastics oscillator attempting to move out from the oversold levels, could keep prices to the upside for the moment.This will mean that gold prices will continue to maintain a sideways range between 1850 and 1817.89 levels in the near term.On the daily charts, gold prices closed flat following the losses from the previous day.Therefore, if price action turns bearish today, we could expect to see the previous lows at 1784.81 from 4th February coming under test once again.To the upside, price action needs to post a strong close above the 10th of February highs of 1855.30 for any signs of further gains.
Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) take the Limelight at Ethereum Conference

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) take the Limelight at Ethereum Conference

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 15.02.2021 06:00
Non-fungible tokens have been gaining momentum over the past few months. Plenty of new projects were showcased at last week’s Ethereum Denver hackathon event. This year’s ETHDenver event ran from Feb. 5 to 12 but due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was hosted online. This year, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have been all the rage and industry data provider DeFiPrime has been looking into what has been grabbing the attention. The hackathon brings the Ethereum community together and allows developers to showcase new projects, some of which end up integrating themselves into the Ethereum ecosystem Most interesting #defi and NFT projects from @EthereumDenver hackathon in this thread(in no particular order)— defiprime (@defiprime) February 14, 2021NFTs Making an Impact In essence, non-fungible tokens are uniquely distinguishable digital assets which means no two are the same. They are usually issued on the Ethereum ERC-721 standard which creates verifiable digital scarcity. An NFT for a virtual plot of land recently sold for a record $1.5 million. Masterfile is a new platform that ties digital rights management to an NFT, securing it against copyright infringement. Its native MFT token is focused on Digital Rights Management (DRM) and the team hopes to enable permission-based NFT experiences. Another interesting platform is NFTea Room which is a DAO for determining accurate prices and information for NFTs. Currently, there are several different marketplaces such as OpenSea and Rarible but no platform offering accurate pricing information. A platform called HEATDEX aims to track the ‘hype’ and social sentiment of popular NFTs. Crypto artists can then use this to gauge what is hot and what is not in the world of digital art. Multiple prizes were also awarded to the winners of a number of bug bounties and competitions held over the week-long event. Cheers to another amazing year Spork Marmots! And congratulations to all who BUIDLed Here is our list of bounty, track & quadratic funding winners for #ETHDenver & #ColoradoJam 2021 https://t.co/JpM6eUylH2 #putasporkinit— ETHDenver (@EthereumDenver) February 13, 2021DeFi and Gas Savings In addition to the big NFT presence were a number of DeFi-oriented projects and proposals. Sublimate.Finance is one that lets users accept continuous financial support from anyone, paid automatically over time in ERC-20 tokens per block. FreeFund is a similar project that provides a decentralized crowdfunding platform that accepts crypto to kickstart projects. A project called Gasless Wallet allows users to pay transaction fees in any ERC-20 tokens, which means they do not have to buy ETH to interact with smart contracts. The Gasless Chain Agnostic Minter also helps improve the NFT minting process by offering gasless transaction and cross-chain compatibility. A protocol called Verager was introduced, allowing traders to use leverage without having to worry about liquidation. Another called JamBot works as a collective intelligence platform for DeFi education. It’s likely that many of these projects and proposals will disappear into the digital dust, but one or two could become the next big thing in the ever-evolving crypto and DeFi landscape. The post Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) take the Limelight at Ethereum Conference appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto Market Downturn Forces Nearly $2 Billion in Liquidations

Crypto Market Downturn Forces Nearly $2 Billion in Liquidations

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 15.02.2021 08:05
After Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high just under $50,000 on Feb. 14, a sharp correction caused problems for many optimistic crypto traders. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin made another new all-time high of $49,531 in the late hours of Feb. 14. With the magical $50,000 milestone closer than ever, excited crypto traders went in heavy on long positions. The market had other plans, however. As Bitcoin fell back to a local low of under $46,000 in the early hours of Feb. 15, the entire crypto market cap saw $1 billion wiped away. This downturn acted to liquidate many over-leveraged long positions. Data from Bybt is showing that in the last 24 hours, $1.89 billion in losses were incurred. Cryptocurrency Liquidations Data from BybtBitcoin and Ethereum made up the bulk of the liquidations as per usual, totaling over $9 million between the two. It also seems that XRP traders were caught off guard. XRP had been steadily climbing its way back up after losing 50% following the announcement of an SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs. Traders lost nearly $100 million betting on a continued revival. Other notable losses include EOS, Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA), all of which have enjoyed recent spikes to multi-year highs. Each saw more than $50 million in liquidated losses. This marks the third-highest figure for liquidations since the beginning of 2021. On Jan. 10, long traders were squeezed for $2.5 billion after Bitcoin fell from $41,000 to $30,000. This was also on the same day that Ethereum fell from a then-all-time-high of $1,350 back to $900. It appears that the bleeding has paused for the time being. At the time of press, Bitcoin had recovered slightly and is back to trading at the $47,400 level. The post Crypto Market Downturn Forces Nearly $2 Billion in Liquidations appeared first on BeInCrypto.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.02.2021 14:15
The window of opportunity for the stock bears is slowly but surely closing down as Friday‘s gentle intraday peek higher turned into a buying spree before the closing bell. The sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed, euphoric and compacent end of the spectrum again. I asked on Friday:(…) How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.Today, I‘ll say that waiting for a correction is like waiting for Godot. Trust me, I have come to experience quite some absurd and Kafkaesque drama not too long ago. What an understatement.One week ago, I called the dollar as making a local top, and look where we are in the process. Coupled with the steepening pace of rising long-dated Treasury yields, that‘s a great environment for financials (XLF ETF) as they benefit from the widening yield curve.Gold remains a drag on the precious metals performance, with silver and platinum flying. The miners‘ outlook and internal dynamics between various mining indices, provides a much needed proof to those short on patience. Little wonder, after 5+ months of downside correction whose target I called on Aug 07 in the article S&P 500 Bulls Meet Non-Farm Payrolls. Little wonder given the monstrous pace of new money creation beating quite a few prior interventions combined.Yet, the precious metals complex is coming back to life as the economic recovery goes on, and will get new stimulus fuel. Commodity prices are rising steeply across the board, yet inflation as measured by CPI, will have to wait for the job market to start feeling the heat, which it obviously doesn‘t in the current pace of job creation and low participation rate. Until labor gets more powerful in the price discovery mechanism (through market-based dynamics!), the raging inflationary fire will be under control, manifesting only in (financial) asset price inflation. That‘s precisely what you would expect when new money is no longer sitting on banks‘ balance sheets, but flowing into the economy. Again quoting my Friday‘s words:(…) One more note concerning the markets – in our print-and-spend-happy world, where the give or take $1.9T stimulus will sooner or later come in one way or another, we better prepare on repricing downside risk in the precious metals, and also better not to fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this just doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. All those serious correction calls have to wait – in tech and elsewhere, for we‘re going higher overall – like it or not.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsThe weekly S&P 500 chart is still one of strength, without a top in sight. And the lower volume, I don‘t view as concerning at all.After a three day sideways consolidation, stock bulls forced a close higher on Friday. Low volume, but still higher prices. The bears missed an opportunity to act, having hesitated for quite a few days. Not that the (big picture) path of least resistance weren‘t higher before that, though.The market breadth indicators got a boost on Friday, but it‘s especially the new highs new lows that have a way to go. One would expect a bigger uptick given Friday‘s price advance, but the overall message is still one of cautious but well grounded optimism.Credit Markets, Treasuries and DollarThe high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio performance is lining up nicely with the S&P 500 one, and definitely isn‘t flashing a warning sign for the days to come.Long-term Treasuries are declining at a faster pace than has been the case in late 2020, which is (not immediately right now, but give it time and it‘ll turn out to be) concerning. Thus far though, the money flows are positive for the stock (and other risk on) markets as the liquidity tide keeps hitting the tape.Who suffers? The dollar. No, it‘s not breaking higher (retracing breakout before a run higher – no) above the 50-day moving average or any way you draw a declining resistance line on higher time frames. The greenback is getting ready for another powerful downleg.Gold and SilverGold bulls have repelled another selling wave, which was however not the strongest one. The fact there was one in the first place even, is more (short-term) concerning for the gold bulls. But please remember that it was first gold that got it right in jumping higher on the unprecedented money printing spree as we entered spring 2020, followed by copper, base metals, agricultural commodities, and also oil now (remember my recent bullish calls for over $80 per barrel in less than 2 years). Gold keeps catching breath, frustrating the bulls who „know“ it can only go higher, but its spark isn‘t there at the moment. A perfect example is Monday‘s session thus far – spot gold 0.25% down, spot silver 1.25% up. It‘s been only on Friday when I touted the gold-silver spread trade idea as not having exhausted its potential yet, not by a long shot:(…) For those inclined so, I am raising the arbitrage trade possibility. Long silver, short gold would be consistent with my prior assessment of the gold-silver ratio going down. Similarly to bullish gold bets, that‘s a longer-term trade, which however wouldn‘t likely take much patience to unfold and stick.Silver keeps acting in a bullish way, tracking commodities ($CRB) performance much better than gold does at the moment. While both are a bullish play with the many factors arrayed behind their upcoming rise, it‘s silver that will reap the greatest rewards – today and in the days and weeks ahead. Gold and Silver MinersBack to the beaten down and underperforming gold. See that the yellow metal still isn‘t following the rising yields all that closely these days. Decoupling from the Treasury yields bodes well for precious metals universally, and it‘s precisely what you would expect given the (commodity) inflation, twin deficits biting, and the dollar balancing on the brink.The miners examination also proves no change in the underlying bullish dynamic that is largely playing out below the surface. We‘re seeing the continued outperformance of junior gold miners vs. the seniors, and also the great burst of life in the silver miners – these are outperforming ever more visibly the rest of the mining companies.This is a long awaited chart to flip bullish. Thus far, we have had one recent bullish divergence only (the GDX refusal to break to new lows when gold broke below its Jan lows) – once gold miners start leading the yellow metal, the sentiment in the precious metals community would get different compared to today really.SummaryThe deterioration in stock market got postponed with the latter half of Friday bringing in fresh buying pressure. Would the bears appear, at least to rock the boat a little? They had a good chance all the prior week, but didn‘t jump at the opportunity. Their window is closing, slowly but surely. The stock bull run is on, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction soon.The gold bulls continue lagging behind their silver counterparts, predictably. That‘s the objective assessment regardless of unprecendented monetary and fiscal policies, unfolding real economy recovery, inflation cascading through the system, and the dollar struggling to keep its head above water. The new upleg keeps knocking on the door, and patience will be richly rewarded (unless you took me up on the gold-silver arbitrage trade, and are popping the champagne already).
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Five Biggest Altcoin Gainers From Feb. 8 – Feb. 15

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 15.02.2021 14:35
BeInCrypto breaks down some of the biggest altcoin movers and shakers from the previous week. Will their momentum continue? During the week of Feb 8 -15, these five altcoin picks rallied the most: Bitcoin Gold (BTG) – 125% Ravencoin (RVN) – 125% DASH (DASH) – 124% Graph Token (GRT) – 113% Lisk (LSK) – 109% Biggest Altcoin Gainers BTG has increased considerably over the past two weeks but has yet to move above an important resistance area at $32. RVN reached an all-time high price of $0.09 on Feb. 14 and is currently in the process of validating the previous all-time high resistance area as support. DASH has already moved above the long-term $236 resistance area and should continue increasing at an accelerated rate. Despite reaching an all-time high of $2.81 on Feb. 11, the lack of price history for GRT makes analysis of the token difficult. LSK reached an all-time high price of $4.93 on Feb. 14 but has fallen slightly since, retesting the all-time high resistance area, above which it previously broke out from. BTG The BTG chart shows a massive upward move that has been going on since a breakout from it validated a long-term descending resistance line as support (green arrow). Since then, the BTG increase has turned parabolic, reaching a high of $33 so far. All three of the: RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator are still increasing, suggesting that the trend is bullish. However, until BTG breaks out from the $32 area and validates it as support, the upward move is not yet confirmed. BTG has not reached a close above this level since Jul. 2018. If it does so successfully, the rate of increase should significantly accelerate. BTG Chart By TradingViewRVN RVN increased considerably last week, reaching an all-time high price of $0.09 in the process. While RVN has fallen slightly since, it’s in the process of validating the previous all-time high resistance area at $0.075 as support. Technical indicators are bullish since all three of the: MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator are increasing. Once RVN manages to clear this area and validate it as support, the rate of increase is likely to accelerate. RVN Chart By TradingViewDASH Last week’s rally took DASH above the $236 resistance area, the 0.382 Fib retracement level of the most recent downward move. Previously, DASH had traded below this level since Apr. 2018. Currently, DASH is in the process of moving above this area, something which could trigger an accelerated rally towards the next resistance area at $571. Technical indicators are bullish and support the continuation of the upward movement. DASH Chart By TradingViewGRT The GRT chart shows a significant upward movement that has been going on for the past week. This led to an all-time high price of $2.81 on Feb. 12. GRT fell shortly afterward but has regained the majority of its losses since then. Before Dec. 17, 2020, the lack of price history makes it difficult to construct a proper analysis of the token. GRT Chart By TradingViewLSK LSK has increased immensely over the past three days, reaching an all-time high price of $4.70 on Feb. 14. While it has dropped significantly since then, the decline served to validate the $2.90 area as support, leaving a long lower wick behind. Technical indicators are bullish, and since there is no resistance above the current price, the rate of increase may significantly accelerate from here on out. LSK Chart By TradingViewFor BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here. The post Five Biggest Altcoin Gainers From Feb. 8 – Feb. 15 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
USD Trades Weaker Amid Bank Holiday

USD Trades Weaker Amid Bank Holiday

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.02.2021 08:31
EURUSD Subdued Amid Thin TradingThe euro was trading subdued, with price action once again attempting to retest the resistance level near 1.2144.Price action in the EURUSD is somewhat flat with the US markets closed on account of the president’s day holiday today.The short term trend appears to be flat for the moment unless the common currency is able to break out above the resistance area between 1.2144 and 1.2177.Meanwhile, the stochastics oscillator is posting a lower high. This could suggest a short-term correction to the downside.The support level near 1.2050 is likely to remain the downside target for the moment.GBPUSD Surges Past 1.3900The British pound Sterling continues to surge ahead with price action rising above 1.3900.So far, GBPUSD has been posting gains for nearly five consecutive weeks.A continuation to the upside could see price action rising towards the 1.4400 level. This would mark the highest level since mid-2016.But the current pace of gains has seen no meaningful pullback just as yet. Therefore, the lack of any support to the downside is likely to open the downside risk.The recent swing high near 1.3867 is likely to act as support. But if the GBPUSD loses this handle, we expect a correction down to 1.3759 next.Oil Prices Rally On Cold WeatherOil prices opened on a bullish note in the Asian trading session rising to a new 13 month high.The gains came as the cold winter has fueled demand for the fossil fuel.Price rallied to a new high of 60.75 before giving back some of the intraday gains. However, towards the late European trading session, oil prices were seen giving back some of these gains.If oil prices continue to pull back, then we might get to see prices covering the gap from Monday’s open. To the upside, the next main resistance level is near 61.35.The current rally in the oil prices also comes as the US dollar has been trading weaker over the past few weeks.Gold Price Confined To Friday’s RangeThe precious metal is trading subdued with price action firmly stuck within Friday’s range.With both the Asian and US markets closed, trading in the precious metal is slow. Price action is back near the support level of 1817 region.For the moment, the support level seems to be holding up which could provide a short-term boost to the upside. The resistance level near 1850.00 will likely once again act as resistance keeping a lid on any further gains.However, watch the stochastics oscillator which is likely to signal a shift in the momentum.In the event that gold prices lose the 1817 support, we could expect price action toward the 4th February lows at 1784.79.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Bitcoin, be a contrarian

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.02.2021 10:50
It is easier said than done since we like seeing the confirmation. We enjoy seeing prices go up and then would be willing to commit to buying. Unfortunately, it is too late to participate at that point since the risk is increasing the more prices advance. The result is that many novices trade breakout trades. This is one of the most apparent form of market participation. Since the whole world can identify such a trade, it is a low probability technique.A real edge is created by conditioning oneself to ask the right questions at the right time. When prices retrace within a general uptrend having a clear rule set of participation is very useful. When prices go up, using a supporting exit strategy like our quad exit to take partial exits and generally asking oneself where to get out is the right behavior.The following three charts describe the essential scenarios we see for Bitcoin to progress further.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Minor dip with high risk:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.As much as a minor retracement would point for the most aggressive trend direction from a risk perspective regarding mid and long-term market participation, we see no low-risk entries to take part in. In this case, we prefer the price to penetrate 50k successfully and would like to enter on a bounce of this significant number. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Consolidation zone below US$50,000:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.The next way prices could unfold is consolidation below the larger 50k marker. We find entries on the low end of the trend rage attractive as participation by taking partial profits on the range box’s upper rim and possible continuation of the remaining position size to all time new highs.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin-be a contrarian:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.The real contrarian opportunity would lay in a larger retracement to fade for the well-prepared trader. Bitcoins’ nature has been to show substantial retracements. A move like this would evoke emotions of doubt. Contrarian to these emotions, the larger the decline, the more aggressive an entry in position size should be.All three scenarios require a well-prepped plan. Instead of following the market’s evolution with emotional observation, focus on the prepared battle plan and engage only if your preconceived ideas are matched by price behavior.Bitcoin, be a contrarianIf you follow prey to your intuitive, emotional response, you will find yourself in the urge of wanting to get into the market once prices show a clear direction. This is also precisely at that spot where “fear of missing out” comes into play, another emotional trigger. Conscious efforts have to be made to overwrite these non-quality questions from a market participation perspective. Write notes into your charts and rehearse quality-question-timing for market participation until they become second nature. A low-risk entry methodology starts with these quality questions, and doing so within a trade, is one of the best performing trading methods out there. Be a contrarian to market direction and be a contrarian to your emotions.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 15th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Still No S&P 500 Correction, Still No Real Change in the Metals

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.02.2021 16:11
Yesterday‘s thin volume session didn‘t bring any material changes as the window of opportunity for the stock bears to act, is slowly but surely closing down. Friday‘s intraday move brought increasingly higher prices, and Monday‘s trading extended gains even more. Euphoric, complacent greed as evidenced by the sentiment readings and put/call ratios, is on.I asked on Friday:(…) How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.Both on Monday and today, I‘ll say that waiting for a correction is like waiting for Godot. Right from the horse‘s mouth as my personal experience with quite some absurd and Kafkaesque drama got richer recently.The dollar keeps topping out, which I called it to do a week ago – and its losses have been mounting since. Long-dated Treasury yields are rising in tandem, which is a great environment for financials (XLF ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF). The former benefit from the widening yield curve, the latter from plain devaluation.Gold performance is still short-term disappointing, and silver and platinum are leading. But it‘s the miners and the moves between various mining indices, that work to soothe the bulls‘ impatience. Understandable as we are in 5+ months of downside correction whose target I called on Aug 07 in the article S&P 500 Bulls Meet Non-Farm Payrolls, witnessing record pace of new money creation.The ongoing economic recovery will get new stimulus support, and that will work to broaden the precious metals advance. Commodity prices are universally rising, and over time, inflation as measured by CPI, will do so too. But not until the current pace of job creation picks up and participation rate turns – we‘re far from that moment. Until then, inflation will be apparent only in (financial) asset prices, which is in line with new money no longer sitting on banks‘ balance sheets, but flowing into the real economy. Again quoting my Friday‘s words:(…) One more note concerning the markets – in our print-and-spend-happy world, where the give or take $1.9T stimulus will sooner or later come in one way or another, we better prepare on repricing downside risk in the precious metals, and also better not to fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this just doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. All those serious correction calls have to wait – in tech and elsewhere, for we‘re going higher overall – like it or not.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsThe bulls had an opportunity to act for quite a few days in a row, yet missed it. Their inaction confirms that the path of least resistance for stocks is to still rise.The market breadth indicators have improved on Friday, but especially the new highs new lows has a way to go. It could have ticked upwards more given Friday‘s price advance, but didn‘t. The put/call ratio has moved upwards (see chart below), but the overall message is still one of cautious yet reasonable optimism – not enough to trigger the sizable correction quite some participants are constantly awaiting.Credit Markets, Treasuries and DollarThe high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio performance isn‘t out of whack with the S&P 500, but the investment grade corporate bonds to longer dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) are not confirming exactly. Before the corona crash, the high yield ones were leading the investment grade ones for countless quarters. From the Mar 2020 bottom, the investment grade ones were in the pool position. And since the end of Dec 2020, the high yield ones are leading again, but investment grade ones aren't going up anymore, but down the way long-term Treasuries do. One more sign of the euphoric stage in stocks we're in.Long-term Treasuries are the chart to watch for the market to throw a fit – or not. They‘re declining at a faster pace than has been the case in late 2020, which can bring about trouble - not immediately right away, but over time it can turn out so. The dynamic of money moving into the stock market is thus far still positive as the many risk on assets are gaining on the fast pace of new money creation. The worry about a sudden, sharp reversal is misplaced for now.The dollar is on the receiving end – there is no breakout verification before a run higher in progress – no. Neither above the 50-day moving average, nor any way you draw a declining resistance line on higher time frames. The greenback is about to test and break below its 2021 lows. Solidly below.Gold and SilverGold bulls stood their ground on Friday, yet their yesterday‘s and today‘s performance is rather weak. Not disastrously so, but still indicative of the headwinds gold bulls face. Gold‘s spark isn‘t there at the moment. Putting it into context, please remember that it was first gold that jumped in the unrivalled money printing era arrival in spring 2020, followed by copper, base metals, agricultural commodities, and also oil now (remember my recent bullish calls for over $80 per barrel in less than 2 years). Silver price action is the bullish one, in line with commodities ($CRB) performance being much stronger now. Silver is definitely better positioned to benefit from the upcoming precious metals rise – today and in the days and weeks ahead. Gold and Silver MinersThe heat gold is taking from rising Treasury yields, is also progressively weaker. The decoupling from rising nominal (real) yields bodes well for precious metals universally, and it‘s precisely what you would expect given the (commodity) inflation, twin deficits, and the dollar on the brink.Gold to all corporate bonds chart reflects the current dillydallying nicely. Gold isn‘t breaking down into a bearish downtrend. The miners examination also proves no change in the underlying bullish dynamic playing out below the surface. Junior gold miners are oputperforming. the seniors, and there is also the great burst of life in the silver miners – these are outperforming ever more visibly the rest of the crowd.Once this chart flips bullish, we have the new upleg clearly visible. Thus far, we have had one recent bullish divergence only (the GDX refusal to break to new lows when gold broke below its Jan lows) – once gold miners start leading the yellow metal, the sentiment in the precious metals community would get different compared to today really.SummaryThe deterioration in stocks got postponed as both Friday and Monday brought new buyers into the market. Would the bears appear, at least to rock the boat a little? I stand by my call that they had a good chance all the prior week, but didn‘t jump at the opportunity – their window is closing, slowly but surely. The stock bull run is on, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction soon.The gold bulls continue lagging behind their silver counterparts, predictably, with both under pressure in Tuesday‘s premarket. Coupled with the miners‘ signals, and unprecendented monetary and fiscal stimulus, unfolding real economy recovery, inflation making its way through the system, and the dollar struggling to keep its head above water, the new PMs upleg is a question of time.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.02.2021 16:53
Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.Please see below:Figure 1Destined for devaluation after hitting its triangle-vertex-based reversal point (which I warned about previously ), the yellow metal is struggling to climb the ever-growing wall of worry.Mirroring what we saw at the beginning of the New Year, gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal point remains a reliable indicator of trend exhaustion.And when you add the bearish cocktail of rising U.S. interest rates and a potential USD Index surge, $1,700 remains the initial downside target , with $1,500 to even ~$1,350 still possibilities under the right curcumstances.Please see below:Figure 2 - Gold Continuous Contract Overview and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart ComparisonTo explain the rationale, I wrote previously:Back in November, gold’s second decline (second half of the month) was a bit bigger than the initial (first half of the month) slide that was much sharper. The January performance is very similar so far, with the difference being that this month, the initial decline that we saw in the early part of the month was bigger.This means that if the shape of the price moves continues to be similar, the next short-term move lower could be bigger than what we saw so far in January and bigger than the decline that we saw in the second half of November. This is yet another factor that points to the proximity of $1,700 as the next downside target.In addition, as a steepening U.S. yield curve enters the equation, I wrote on Jan. 27 that the bottom, and subsequent move higher, in U.S. Treasury yields coincided with a USDX rally 80% of the time since 2003.Figure 3 - Source: Daniel LacalleAnd while the USDX continues to fight historical precedent, on Feb. 12, the U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield closed at its highest level in nearly a year. As such, the move should add wind to the USDX’s sails in the coming weeks.Please see below:Figure 4In conclusion, gold is under fire from all angles and dodging bullets has become a near impossible task. With the USD Index likely to bounce off its declining resistance line (now support), a bottom in the greenback could be imminent. Also ominous, a steepening U.S. yield curve signals that the yellow metals’ best days are likely in the rearview. However, as the situation evolves and gold eventually demonstrates continued strength versus the USD Index, its long-term uptrend will resume once again.Before moving on, I want to reiterate my previous comments and explain why $1,700 remains my initial target:One of the reasons is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent 2020 rally, and the other is the 1.618 extension of the initial decline. However, there are also more long-term-oriented indications that gold is about to move to $1,700 or lower.(…) gold recently failed to move above its previous long-term (2011) high. Since history tends to repeat itself, it’s only natural to expect gold to behave as it did during its previous attempt to break above its major long-term high.And the only similar case is from late 1978 when gold rallied above the previous 1974 high. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details (courtesy of chartsrus.com)Figure 5 - Gold rallying in 1978, past its 1974 highAs you can see above, in late 1978, gold declined severely right after it moved above the late-1974 high. This time, gold invalidated the breakout, which makes the subsequent decline more likely. And how far did gold decline back in 1978? It declined by about $50, which is about 20% of the starting price. If gold was to drop 20% from its 2020 high, it would slide from $2,089 to about $1,671 .Figure 6 - Relative Strength Index (RSI), GOLD, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ComparisonIf you analyze the red arrow in the lower part of the above chart (the weekly MACD sell signal), today’s pattern is similar not only to what we saw in 2011, but also to what we witnessed in 2008. Thus, if similar events unfold – with the S&P 500 falling and the USD Index rising (both seem likely for the following months, even if these moves don’t start right away) – the yellow metal could plunge to below $1,350 or so. The green dashed line shows what would happen gold price, if it was not decline as much as it did in 2008.However, as of right now, my initial target is $1,700, with $1,500 likely over the medium-term. But as mentioned, if the S&P 500 and the USD Index add ripples to the bearish current, $1,400 (or even ~$1,350) could occur amid the perfect storm. ~$1,500 still remains the most likely downside target for the final bottom, though.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

USD trades mixed on comments from Fed officials

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.02.2021 07:49
Euro Gives Back Intraday GainsThe euro currency rose to a four-week high after GDP numbers came out better than forecast.But price action soon gave back the gains as the resistance level proved too hard to breach.Price action briefly rose past 1.2144 before retreating from the resistance level between 1.2177 and 1.2144. For the moment, the EURUSD remains well above the 12th February lows.However, a close below this level could see further short term declines. The main support level at 1.2050 remains the downside target for the moment.GBPUSD Slips But Upside Remains IntactThe British pound sterling continues to post steady gains. Price action was seen trading a bit weaker after testing highs of 1.3951 on Tuesday.But a quick recovery from the intraday lows is keeping the upside bias intact.Further gains could likely see the cable testing the 1.4000 round number level in the near term.To the downside, the current intraday lows near 1.3869 and the highs from 10th February at 1.3866 form the initial support.Only a strong close below this level will open the downside toward the 12th Feb lows at 1.3775.Crude Oil Retreats From 60.92WTI crude oil prices are giving back the gains after prices touched a new 13-month high earlier this week.The declines come after prices fell to fill the gap from last Friday at 59.55. With most of the intraday declines already pulling back, the upside could resume.The fundamentals remain bullish for oil markets especially with the cold winter in the US. This could see oil prices likely to test the 61.00 level next to the upside.Any corrections could likely stall near the 57.35 level for the moment. Establishing support here could also further strengthen the potential for more gains.Gold Slips Below 1817 Technical SupportThe precious metal lost the 1817.79 technical support on Tuesday.However, after prices fell to intraday lows of 1789.37, there was a quick recovery.The current pullback could see gold prices retesting the 1817.79 level once again. The bias remains mixed as we could see some consolidation taking place near this level.Only a strong close below 4th Feb lows of 1784 will see further downside.The next key target for gold is near the 1764.22 level of support. To the upside, gains could be limited to the 1850 handle once again.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.02.2021 16:21
The stock bears finally showed they aren‘t an extinct species – merely a seriously endangered one. Yesterday‘s close though gives them a chance to try again today, but they should be tame in expectations. While there is some chart deterioration, it‘s not nearly enough to help fuel a full on bearish onslaught in the S&P 500. There is no serious correction starting now, nothing to really take down stocks seriously for the time being.The Fed remains active, and monetary policy hasn‘t lost its charm (effect) just yet. Commodities and asset price inflation has been in high gear for quite some time, yet it‘s not a raging problem for the Main Street as evidenced by the CPI. Food price inflation, substitution and hedonistic adjustments in its calculation, are a different cup of tea, but CPI isn‘t biting yet.Meanwhile, the real economy recovery goes on (just check yesterday‘s Empire State Manufacturing figures for proof), even without the $1.9T stimulus and infrastructure plans. Once we see signs of strain in the job market (higher participation rate, hourly earnings and hours worked), then the real, palpable inflation story can unfold. But we‘re talking 2022, or even 2023 to get there – and the Fed will just let it overshoot to compensate for the current and prior era.Meanwhile, the wave of new money creation (we‘re almost at double the early 2020 Fed‘s balance sheet value - $4T give or take then vs. almost $7.5T now – and that‘s before the multiplier in commercial banks loan creation kicks in) keeps hitting the markets, going into the real economy, predictably lifting many boats. It‘s my view that we have to (and will) experience a stock market bubble accompanied by the precious metals and commodities one – to a degree, simultaneously, for the stock market is likely to get under pressure first. Again, I am talking the big picture here – not the coming weeks.Meanwhile, the intense talk of S&P 500 correction any-day-week-now is on, just as outrageous gold, silver and miners‘ drop projections. Let‘s examine the bear market is gold – some say that the late 2015 marked bottom, I‘m of the view that the 2016 steep rally was a first proof of turning tide. But the Fed got serious about tightening (raising rates, shrinking its balance sheet), and gold reached the final bottom in Aug 2018. Seeing through the hawks vs. dove fights at the Fed in the latter half of 2018 (December was a notable moment when Powell refused to the markets‘ bidding, remained hawkish in the face of heavy, indiscriminate selling across the board – before relenting).Since then, gold was slowly but surely gathering steam, and speculation in stocks was on. The repo crisis of autumn 2019 didn‘t have a dampening effect either – the Fed was solidly back to accomodative back then. These have all happened well before corona hit – and it wasn‘t able to push gold down really much. The recovery from the forced selling, this deflationary episode (which I had notably declared back in summer 2020 to be a one-off, not to be repeated event), was swift. Commodities have clearly joined, and the picture of various asset classes taking the baton as inflation is cascading through the system, is very clear.Quoting from my yesterday‘s analysis:(…) The dollar keeps topping out, which I called it to do a week ago – and its losses have been mounting since. Long-dated Treasury yields are rising in tandem, which is a great environment for financials (XLF ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF). The former benefit from the widening yield curve, the latter from plain devaluation.Gold performance is still short-term disappointing, and silver and platinum are leading. But it‘s the miners and the moves between various mining indices, that work to soothe the bulls‘ impatience. Understandable as we are in 5+ months of downside correction whose target I called on Aug 07 in the article S&P 500 Bulls Meet Non-Farm Payrolls, witnessing record pace of new money creation.The ongoing economic recovery will get new stimulus support, and that will work to broaden the precious metals advance. Again quoting my Friday‘s words:(…) in our print-and-spend-happy world, where the give or take $1.9T stimulus will sooner or later come in one way or another, we better prepare on repricing downside risk in the precious metals, and also better not to fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this just doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. All those serious correction calls have to wait – in tech and elsewhere, for we‘re going higher overall – like it or not.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookFinally, there is a whiff of bearish activity. Will it last or turn out a one day event as thus far in Feb? The chances for a sideways correction to last at least a little longer, are still on, however the short- and medium-term outlook remains bullish.Credit Markets and TreasuriesHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) wavered yesterday, trading in a sideways pattern during recent days. Encouragingly, yesterday‘s session attracted increasing volume, which I read as willingness to buy the dip. One dip and done?Long-term Treasuries (TLT ETF) are the key chart on my radar screen right now. The rise in yields is accelerating, and if progressing unmitigated, would throw a spanner into many an asset‘s works. Even though it‘s not apparent right now, there is a chance that we‘ll see a slowdown, even a temporary stabilization, over the coming sessions. The larger trend in rates is higher though, and in the dollar to the downside.Gold, Silver and CommoditiesThe heat gold is taking from rising Treasury yields, has gotten weaker recently, with the decoupling from rising nominal (real) yields being a good omen for precious metals universally. The dynamics of commodity price inflation, dollar hardly balancing under the weight of unprecedented economic policy and twin deficits, attests to the gold upleg arriving sooner rather than later.Let‘s step back, and compare the performance of gold, silver, copper and oil. The weekly chart captures the key turns in monetary policy, the plunge into the corona deflationary bottom, and crucially the timing and pace of each asset‘s recovery. Gold and silver were the first to sensitively respond to activist policies, followed by copper, and finally oil. Is their current breather really such a surprise and reversal of fortunes? Absolutely not.SummaryThe bearish push in stocks has a good chance of finally materializing today. How strong will its internals be, will it entice the bulls to step in – or not yet? The stock bull run is firmly on, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction with today‘s price action.The gold bulls continue lagging behind their silver counterparts, predictably, with both under continued pressure. The yields are rising a bit too fast, taking the metals along – temporarily, until they decouple to a greater degree. Combined with the miners‘ signals, and unprecendented monetary and fiscal stimulus, unfolding real economy recovery, inflation making its way through the system, and the dollar struggling to keep its head above water, the new PMs upleg is a question of time.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.02.2021 20:44
There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately.  The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?GOLD SUPPORT NEAR $1765 MAY BECOME A NEW LAUNCHPADMy research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level.  As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.The February 2021 Gold contract expires on February 24 – only a few days away.  The CME Delivery Report shows an incredible amount of contracts already giving notice of a “Delivery Request”. This suggests that on or near February 25, a supply squeeze for Gold and Silver may become a very real component of price.For example, there are 32,831 contracts requesting delivery for February 2021 COMEX 100 Gold Futures as of February 16, 2021. That reflects a total delivery obligation of 3,283,100 ounces of Gold. The Silver contract deliveries are similar in size.  As of February 16, 2021, here are 1,865 February 2021 COMEX 5000 Silver contracts requesting delivery. That translates into over 9,325,000 ounces of Silver.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!We still have another five trading days to go before the February contract expires.  How many more futures contract holders will pile into the Delivery Que at COMEX and how will this translate into any potential price advance or decline?SILVER TRENDS HIGHER – ALREADY SHOWING STRONG DEMANDSilver has already begun to move higher while Gold continues to wallow near recent lows.  Our research team believes the next few days of trading in Gold and Silver could become very volatile as global traders suddenly realize the demand for Deliveries may squeeze prices much higher.  Traders should stay keenly aware of this dynamic in the Precious Metals markets as we may continue to see futures contract delivery requests out-pace supply as Precious Metals prices continues to move higher.The 100% Fibonacci measured move technique we are showing on these charts helps us to understand where and how upside price targets become relevant.  If support on these charts hold and the February 24, 2021 futures contracts expire with strong demand for physical deliveries, then we believe an upside price squeeze may setup fairly quickly (over the next 5 to 15+ days) in both Gold and Silver.We need to watch how Gold reacts near this support level and to pay attention to the delivery data from COMEX.  If these levels continue to increase over the next few days, before the February 24 expiration date, then we need to consider how and when the price will start to reflect this strong demand.  Currently, Gold price activity does not properly reflect what is happening in Silver and Platinum related to the demand for metals.  We believe, over the next 30 to 60+ days, this will change as Gold may enter a new bullish price phase – targeting $2400.  At this point, we believe the answer to this question will become known by February 25th or so.Precious Metals, Miners, Rare Earths, and Junior Miners may set up some really interesting opportunities for traders.  The entire Metals/Miners sector has been under moderate pressure recently and we believe that trend may be ending soon. 2021 is going to be full of these types of trend rotations and new market setups.   Staying ahead of these sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets.  As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher.  Learn how BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups. You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors right now in my FREE one-hour BAN tutorial. Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you in determining what to buy, when to buy it, and how to take profits while minimizing downside risk. In addition, you will be kept fully informed of the market with my short pre-market report delivered to you every morning along with the BAN Hotlist for those looking for more trades.Happy trading!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

GBPUSD Signalling A Bearish Correction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.02.2021 07:28
Dollar gains afer retail sales surprises to the upsideEuro Weakens To A Seven-Day LowThe euro currency is accelerating the pace of declines comparing to the previous few days. On an intraday basis, the euro slipped to a seven session low before recovering slightly.The declines come as the EURUSD has now breached the rising long term trendline once again.Still, given the recent rebound after the trendline breach on 5th February, we could see a recovery once again.Therefore, to the downside, only a confirmed close below 5th February lows of 1.1951 will see further declines coming.Meanwhile, to the upside, a reversal could see the trendline coming in as resistance or the euro could possibly breakout above the trendline once again.The long term correction could see the 200-day moving average being tested which currently sites around the 1.1800 region.The British pound sterling is extending declines following a flat close on Tuesday. Still, price needs to close below Tuesday’s low of 1.3901 to confirm further downside.The next immediate downside target is seen near 1.3733 where price established strong resistance previously. This price level forms the ideal target to the downside with support likely to come in.But in the event that the GBPUSD loses this handle, we might get to see further declines. This will push the cable down to the 1.3500 level which is pending a retest anyways.To the upside, price action will need to post a reversal and possibly rise above the Tuesday highs of 1.3950 in order to maintain the uptrend.WTI Crude Oil Inches Higher But Likely To Close FlatWTI crude oil is showing signs of losing its bullish momentum. Price action is seen struggling to get a foothold above 60.00.This has led to price action being rejected over the past three trading sessions. For the moment, the overall bias remains firmly to the upside.But this could change if oil prices close below Tuesday’s low of 59.31. This will potentially confirm the downside for the short term. The long term trendline will act as support in case of such a move.To the upside, oil prices are nearing the 61.35 level which marks the highs from 8th January. Given the current momentum it is unlikely to see oil prices rising further unless there is a strong breakout above 61.35.Gold Prices Fall To A Two-Month LowThe precious metal resumes its declines with price action currently trading near the 1777.50 level.The decline marks a new two-month low in the commodity. A break down below this level could further accelerate declines.Still, considering that this support level has held up previously around early December last year, the precious metal could post a rebound.The daily Stochastics oscillator is also nearing the oversold levels. This could coincide with the support level holding up.However, if the precious metal loses this support, we could see prices potentially falling to the next key support level near 1650.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.02.2021 16:09
Yesterday‘s bearish price action in stocks was the kind of shallow, largely sideways correction I was looking for. Not too enthusiastic follow through – just rocking the boat while the S&P 500 bull run goes on. Stocks are likely to run quite higher before meeting a serious correction. As I argued in yesterday‘s detailed analysis of the Fed policies, their current stance won‘t bring stocks down. But it‘s taking down long-term Treasuries, exerting pressure on the dollar (top in the making called previous Monday), and fuelling commodities – albeit at very differnt pace. The divergencies I have described yesterday, center on weak gold performance – not gaining traction through the monetary inflation, instead trading way closer in sympathy with Treasury prices. Gold has frontrunned the other commodities through the corona deflationary shock, and appears waiting for more signs of inflation. It didn‘t make a final top in Aug 2020, and a new bear market didn‘t start. It‘s my opinion that thanks to the jittery Treasury markets, we‘re seeing these dislocations, and that once the Fed focuses on the long end of the curve in earnest, that would remove the albatross from gold‘s back.I can‘t understate how important the rising yields are to the economy (and to the largest borrower, the government). Since 1981, we‘ve been in one long bond bull market, and are now approaching the stage of it getting questioned before too long. The rates are rising without the real economy growing really strongly, far from its potential output, and characterized by a weak labor market. Not exactly signs of overheating, but we‘ll get there later this year still probably.It‘s like with generating inflation – the Fed policies for all their intent, can‘t command it into happening. The Treasury market is throwing a fit, knowing how much spending (debt monetization) is coming its way, and the Fed‘s focus is surely shifting to yields at the long end. Bringing it under control would work to dampen the rampant speculation in stocks, and also lift gold while not hurting commodities or real economy recovery much. Sounds like a reasonable move (yield curve control), and I believe they‘re considering it as strongly as I am talking about it.Let‘s quote yesterday‘s special report on gold, inflation, and commodities:(…) the wave of new money creation (we‘re almost at double the early 2020 Fed‘s balance sheet value - $4T give or take then vs. almost $7.5T now – and that‘s before the multiplier in commercial banks loan creation kicks in) keeps hitting the markets, going into the real economy, predictably lifting many boats. It‘s my view that we have to (and will) experience a stock market bubble accompanied by the precious metals and commodities one – to a degree, simultaneously, for the stock market is likely to get under pressure first. Again, I am talking the big picture here – not the coming weeks.Let‘s examine the bear market is gold – some say that the late 2015 marked bottom, I‘m of the view that the 2016 steep rally was a first proof of turning tide. But the Fed got serious about tightening (raising rates, shrinking its balance sheet), and gold reached the final bottom in Aug 2018. Seeing through the hawks vs. dove fights at the Fed in the latter half of 2018 (December was a notable moment when Powell refused to the markets‘ bidding, remained hawkish in the face of heavy, indiscriminate selling across the board – before relenting).Since then, gold was slowly but surely gathering steam, and speculation in stocks was on. The repo crisis of autumn 2019 didn‘t have a dampening effect either – the Fed was solidly back to accomodative back then. These have all happened well before corona hit – and it wasn‘t able to push gold down really much. The recovery from the forced selling, this deflationary episode (which I had notably declared back in summer 2020 to be a one-off, not to be repeated event), was swift. Commodities have clearly joined, and the picture of various asset classes taking the baton as inflation is cascading through the system, is very clear.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsFinally, a daily downswing – not meaningful, but it‘s as good as it gets. The slightly lower volume though shows that there is not a raging conviction yet that this sideways move is over.The market breadth indicators aren‘t at their strongest. Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume dipped negative, which isn‘t worrying unless you look at new highs new lows as well. While still positive, $NYHL is showing a divergence by moving below the mid-Feb lows. Seeing its decline to carve a rounded bottom a la end Jan would be a welcome sight to the stock bulls. Before then, nothing stands in the way of muddling through in a shallow, corrective fashion.Credit Markets and TreasuriesThe divergence in both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – show the bond market strains. HYG:SHY clearly supports the S&P 500 rally, while LQD:IEI isn‘t declining in tandem with long-term Treasuries. Instead, it‘s carving out a bullish divergence as it‘s trading well above the Sep and Oct lows – unlike the TLT.Speaking of which, such were my words yesterday, calling for a Treasury reprieve to happen soon:(…) Long-term Treasuries (TLT ETF) are the key chart on my radar screen right now. The rise in yields is accelerating, and if progressing unmitigated, would throw a spanner into many an asset‘s works. Even though it‘s not apparent right now, there is a chance that we‘ll see a slowdown, even a temporary stabilization, over the coming sessions. The larger trend in rates is higher though, and in the dollar to the downside.The dollar is still topping out, and a new daily upswing doesn‘t change that – I look for it to be reversed, and for the new downleg reasserting itself.Gold, Silver and CommoditiesThe encouraging, budding short-term resilience of gold to rising Treasury yields, got a harsh reality check yesterday. While the latter ticked higher, gold declined regardless. Closing at the late Nov lows, it‘s still relatively higher given the steep rise in long-term Treasury yields since. A bullish divergence, but a more clear sign of (directional) decoupling (negating this week‘s poor performance) is needed.Let‘s look again at gold, silver, and commodities in the medium run. Silver decoupled from gold since the late Nov bottom in both, while commodities haven‘t really looked back since early Nov. Till the end of 2020, gold wasn‘t as markedly weak as it has become since, and actually tracked the silver recovery from the late Nov bottom. And the reason it stopped, are the long-term Treasury yields, which quickened their rise in 2021. It looks like an orderly decline in TLT is what gold would appreciate – not a rush to the Treasury exit door.SummaryThe bearish push in stocks has a good chance of finally materializing also today. How strong will its internals be, will it entice the bulls to step in again? Signs are for this correction to run a bit longer in time – but the stock bull run is firmly on, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction right away.The gold bulls recovered a little of the lost ground, but that doesn‘t flip the short-term picture their way in the least. While the yellow metal is leading silver today, its overall performance in the short run remains disappointing, and the silver-gold spread trade I introduced you to a week ago, a much stronger proposition. Still, given the miners‘ signals, unprecendented monetary and fiscal stimulus, unfolding real economy recovery, inflation making its way through the system, and the dollar struggling to keep its head above water, the new PMs upleg is a question of time.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.02.2021 16:43
With the yellow metal just posting its lowest close since June and a bearish pattern forming, how vulnerable is gold to a further decline?Gold and mining stocks just broke to new yearly lows – as I warned you in my previous analyses. And that’s only the beginning.Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold.Figure 1 - COMEX Gold FuturesIn early February, gold broke below the rising red support line and it then verified it by rallying back to it and then declining once again. It topped almost exactly right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal, which was yet another time when this technique proved to be very useful.Gold has just closed not only at new yearly lows, but also below the late-November lows (in terms of the closing prices, there was no breakdown in intraday terms). This means that yesterday’s (Feb. 17) closing price was the lowest daily close since late June 2020. At the moment of writing these words, gold is also trading below the April 2020 intraday high.Gold was likely to slide based on myriads of technical and cyclical factors, while the fundamental factors remain very positive – especially considering that we are about to enter the Kondratiev winter, or we are already there. As a reminder, Kondratiev cycles are one of the longest cycles and the stages of the cycle take names after seasons. “Winter” tends to start with a stock market top that is caused by excessive credit. In this stage gold is likely to perform exceptionally well… But not right at its start. Even the aftermath of the 1929 top (“Winter” started then as well), gold stocks declined for about 3 months before soaring. In the first part of the cycle, cash is likely to be king. And it seems that the performance of the USD Index is already telling investors to buckle up.And speaking of stocks, what about mining stocks? As you might already well know, just as with gold, the miners moved below the November lows in terms of both the intraday prices and daily closing prices. What does that mean? If you’d like to explore mining stocks in detail and are curious to know more about their prices and possible exit levels, then our full version of the analyses contains exactly what you need to know.Getting back to gold…Figure 2If the fact that gold invalidated its breakout above its 2011 high, despite the ridiculously positive fundamental situation, doesn’t convince you that gold does not really “want” to move higher before declining profoundly first, then the above chart might.As I wrote above, gold is currently more or less when it was trading at the April 2020 top. Where was the USD Index trading back then? It was moving back and forth around the 100 level.100!The USD Index closed a little below 91, and gold is at the same price level! That’s a massive 9 index-point decline in the USDX that gold shrugged off just like that.There’s no way that gold could “ignore” this kind of movement and be “strong” at the same time. No. It’s been very weak in the previous months, which is a strong sign (not a fundamental one, but a critical one nonetheless) that gold is going to move much lower once the USD Index finally rallies back up.Right now, waiting for gold to rally is like waiting for the light to turn green, arguing that eventually it has to turn green, while not realizing that the light is broken (gold just didn’t rally despite the huge decline in the USDX). Yes, someone will fix it and eventually it will turn green, but it doesn’t mean that it makes much sense to wait for that to happen, instead of looking around and crossing the street if it’s safe to do so.Yes, gold is likely to rally to new highs in the coming years. And silver is likely to skyrocket. But in light of just two of the above-mentioned factors (gold’s extreme underperformance relative to the USD Index and the invalidation of a critical breakdown) doesn’t it make sense not to purchase gold right now (except for the insurance capital that is) in order to buy it after several weeks / few months when it’s likely to be trading at much lower levels?We live in very specific times. Getting a “like” on a post or picture becomes a necessary daily activity and means of self-validation. Not “liking” something that others posted or that is massively “liked” may be frowned upon or even viewed as being disrespectful. Plus, it seems that no matter what you do, everyone gets offended very easily. When did honesty, independence and common-sense stop being virtues?When it comes to gold investment analysis, it’s surprisingly similar. You either like gold and think that it’s going higher right away or you’re “one of them”. “Them” can be anyone who tries to manipulate gold or silver prices, “banksters”, or some kind of unknown enemy. “ Analysts' ” goal is often no longer to be as objective as possible and to provide as good and as unbiased an analysis as possible, but to simply be cheering for gold and provide as many bullish signals as possible regardless of what one really thinks about them. The above may seem pleasant to readers, but it’s not really in their best interest. In order to make the most of any upswing, it’s best to enter the market as low as possible and to exit relatively close to the top. What happens before a price is as low as possible? It declines. Why would something like that (along with those describing it) be hated by gold investors? It makes no sense, but yet, it’s often the case.Top of FormBottom of FormThe discussion – above and below – can be viewed as something positive or negative for any investor, but while reading it, please keep in mind that our goal is the same as yours – we want to help investors make the most of their precious metals investments. Call us old-fashioned, but regardless of how unpleasant it may seem, we’ll continue to adhere to honesty, independence and common-sense in all our analysesOk, but why on Earth would the USD Index rally back up? The Fed is printing so much dollars – why would they be worth more?!Because the currencies are valued with relation to each other and whether or not the USD Index moves higher or lower doesn’t depend only on what the Fed is doing.Figure 3What other monetary authorities do matters as well and right now the ECB is outprinting the Fed (that’s what the decline in the green line above means), which means that the euro is likely to fall more than the U.S. dollar. Therefore, the EUR/USD currency exchange rate would be likely to decline and since this exchange rate is the biggest (over 50%) component of the USD Index, it makes perfect sense – from the fundamental point of view – to expect the USD Index to move higher.Can gold rally despite higher USD Index values? Absolutely. However, it would first have to start to behave “normally” relative to the USD Index, and before that happens it would have to stop being extremely weak relative to it. And the fact that gold is at the same price level despite a 9-index-point decline in the USDX is extreme weakness.To make the technical discussion easier, I’m attaching the previous chart once again.Figure 4On Monday (Feb. 15), I wrote the following about the above chart:The size and shape of the 2017-2018 analogue continues to mirror the current price action . However, today, it’s taken 118 less days for the USD Index to move from peak to trough.Also, it took 82 days for the USDX to bottom in 2017-2018 (the number of days between the initial bottom and the final bottom) and the number amounts to 21.19% of the overall duration. If we apply a similar timeframe to today’s move, it implies that a final bottom may have formed on Feb. 12. As a result, the USDX’s long-term upswing could begin as soon as this week.Also noteworthy, as the USDX approached its final bottom in 2017-2018, gold traded sideways. Today, however, gold is already in a downtrend. From a medium-term perspective, the yellow metal’s behavior is actually more bearish than it was in 2017-2018.Also supporting the historical analogue, the USD Index’s current breakout above its 50-day moving average is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. Case in point? After the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is roughly 94.5.Based on this week’s rally it seems that the final bottom formed on Tuesday (Feb. 16) – just 2 trading days away from the analogy-based target, and in perfect tune with what I wrote back then. The breakout above both: the declining blue line, and the 50-day moving average was verified, and the short-term outlook here is clearly bullish.But isn’t the current situation similar to what happened in mid-2020? The correction that was followed by another decline?In a way, it is. In both cases, the USD Index moved higher after a big decline, but that’s about it as far as important similarities are concerned.What is different is the entire context. Even a single look at the above chart provides an instant answer. The mid-2020 correction was like the mid-2017 correction, and what we see right now is the post-bottom breakout, just as we saw in the first half of 2018.There are multiple details on the above chart that confirm it, including the sizes of the medium-term declines, the position of the price relative to the declining support/resistance lines, as well as relative to the 50-day moving average, and even the green arrows in the RSI indicator show how similar the preceding action was in case of this indicator. The vertical dashed line shows “where we are right now” in case of the analogy.Also, the fact that the general stock market has not yet declined in any substantial way only makes the short-term outlook worse (particularly for silver and miners). When stocks do slide, they would be likely to impact the prices of miners and silver particularly strongly.And please remember, we’re looking for the bottom in the precious metals sector not because we’re the enemy of gold or the precious metals investor . On the contrary, we’re that true friend that tells you if something’s not right, even if it may be unpleasant to hear. We want to buy more and at better prices close to the bottom, and we’ll continue to strive to assist you with that as well.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Large Silver cycles

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 19.02.2021 11:13
It´not a secret anymore that Silver is in a boom.The investor is digesting pandemic news for nearly a year now. And the newly termed phrase at the World Economic Forum: “In 2030, you will own nothing and be happy” makes one think twice.The chartist finds himself for almost a year in a bullish trend in Silver. This after Silver trading in a range for seven years. He/She sees Gold on the top of the list of ‘Top assets by market cap’ with Silver ranking 6th and Bitcoin ranking 9th.The market participant focused on fundamentals and market cycles is wondering how long the dollar will hold up as a fiat currency. Typically (over the last 600 years), a fiat currency hyperinflates after 93 years.Nevertheless, the question of “How much” is one to be answered, and it could be much larger time cycles that provide guidance there.The world viewed from a different angle might give clues:Toddlers have anxiety symptoms which can manifest in not eating properly, quickly getting angry or irritable, and being out of control during outbursts as well as constantly worrying or having negative thoughts and feeling tense and fidgety.Social Media addiction among  teens and young adults has exploded leading to an inability to stop or curb this addictive behavior despite suffering losses in friendship, decreased physical social engagement, and a negative impact at school.Worldwide obesity has nearly tripled since 1975. In 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults, 18 years and older, were overweight. Of these over 650 million were obese.The elderly are unwanted in a production-oriented society that measures human value by productivity rate.Yet, pet clothing stores and fresh pet food sections in grocery chain stores are becoming the norm.Any endeavors, including the arts, are measured against the benchmark of profitability. Resulting in the worship of money over beauty, ethics, and principles.The list goes on and could point as far back as to decadent times before the fall of Rome.Daily Chart of Silver, Range Trading:Silver in US Dollar, dailly chart as of February 18th, 2021.One part that has changed over time is the integrity of the markets. Free markets and their principle benefits are endangered. And then typically lies have short legs, and truth prevails.While Silver prices are still held in a range by artificial shorts, the cost of physical Silver much more accurately describes its value increase.  Weekly Chart of Silver, One deep breath and go:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 18th, 2021.Once desperate bears have to give way to Silver’s real value and demand, we most likely see price-advances much more significant than generally assumed.S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, Monthly Chart, Large Silver cycles:S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 18th, 2021.A view at the S&P500 chart above from a professional chartist’s perspective would qualify the hypothetical crash scenario, not as an abnormality but rather a typical scenario after advances this extended in time.In Rome, the leading coin used was The Denarius. With a 90% silver content (4.5 grams per coin), it was equal to a day’s work wages. Rome’s prosperity came from barter, and a finite amount of Silver came into the empire. Within 75 years, the Silver content per coin was diluted down to only 5%. Various emperors did this to finance wars and extravaganza. It was mainly hyperinflation that broke the empire. Sounds familiar?Large Silver cyclesOur intent is not to judge the world and the state it finds itself in, but markets reflect in cycles, and any view larger than one’s lifetime is hard to gauge. We might be in the midst of a market phase where next time around, we get a severe market correction; it might get ugly in a hurry. The result might be more dramatic than the corrections we have seen in the last 20 years. In this case, a look as far back as the Romans could be useful to determine how aggressively we hedge our bets, how much we buy into physical Silver. It looks like a few extra ounces couldn’t hurt.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 19th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

For stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.02.2021 15:38
In keeping with last week’s theme, the market has mainly traded sideways this week. However, that correction I’ve been calling for weeks? We have potentially started.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said last week that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”Yes, the sentiment is still positive. That won’t change overnight. Vaccines seem more effective than we thought, especially against other variants of the virus. All that extra stimulus money and record low-interest rates could keep pushing stocks to more records and stimulate pent-up consumer spending. It’s not like the Fed is going to switch this policy up anytime soon, either.They don’t call it a stimulus for nothing.For weeks we’ve likely been in a rational bubble. Dhaval Joshi , the chief European investment strategist for BCA Research, has said that low bond yields meant the rally we’ve seen with stocks made sense.“Rational, because the nosebleed valuations are justified by a fundamental driver. And not just any fundamental driver, but the most fundamental driver of all – the bond yield.”Take a look at this chart comparing a “rational bubble” to an “irrational bubble.”But now? Things have possibly changed. Complacency, valuations, surging bond yields, and inflation concern me.They’re all connected. But look especially into the 10-year yield. It’s hovering around 1.30% for the first time in over a year.Why is this concerning?Rising interest rates=less attractive stocks.Look at this other chart. Forward P/E ratios are continuing to rise along with bond yields. In high-growth sectors, such as tech, this is especially concerning. The chart shows, in fact, that tech earnings yields have now been surpassed by the bond yield plus a fixed amount.The only three ways this can be resolved are for stock prices to decline, bond yields to fall, or earnings to rise and improve stock valuations. Considering earnings season is over, only options 1 or 2 seem feasible in the near-term.You combine this info with the Buffet Indicator (Total US stock market valuation/GDP), and you have a market that could be 228% overvalued.I’ve already correctly called the Russell 2000’s pullback after how much it’s overheated. Since February 9th, when I switched the call to a sell, it’s declined roughly 3.40%.More could follow.Look. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. A Needed Cool Down for the Russell 2000Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Since February 9, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has lagged behind the other indices after significantly overheating. I switched my call to a SELL then, and it promptly declined by 3.40%.I do love small-caps for 2021, though, and I really like this decline. If it declines about another 1.50%, I’d feel more confident switching the call to a BUY.As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks have been on a rampage since November.Since the market’s close on October 30, the IWM has gained nearly 44.5% and more than doubled ETFs’ returns tracking the larger indices. If you thought that the Nasdaq was red hot and frothy, you have no idea about the Russell 2000.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up a staggering 14%.Judging from these types of returns, the IWM’s decline since February 9 is hardly shocking. But for me, it’s still not enough, outside of switching the call to a HOLD.It pains me not to recommend you to BUY the Russell just yet. I love this index’s outlook for 2021. Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world could bode well for small-caps. Consumer spending, especially for small-caps, could be very pent-up as well.But we need to just hold on and wait for it to cool down just a little bit more for a better entry point.HOLD. If and when there is a deeper pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.02.2021 16:03
Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back. Credit markets are largely behaving – with the exception of long-term Treasuries, which I see as highly likely to draw the Fed‘s attention – just as I discussed in detail yesterday. The S&P 500 keeps doing fine, and so does my open position there – in the black again. On one hand, volatility remains low regardless of intraday attempts to rise, on the other hand, the put/call ratio has risen quite high yesterday – it‘s as if the traders are expecting a shoe to drop, similarly to the end of Jan. Will it, is there any on the horizon?Treasuries at the long-end are falling like a stone, and those on the short end (3-months) are seeing higher prices in 2021. The bond market is clearly under pressure, and exerting influence primarily upon precious metals (and commodities such as oil, which are experiencing a down day today, after quite a string of foreseeable gains). The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I answered a question on ominous head and shoulders patterns in the making, at my own site. This clearly illustrates the razor edge we‘re at in precious metals:(…) This is more often than not the case with H&S patterns – they are not the most reliable ones, highly judgemental at times, and their targets are more often than not far away, which makes them a not fully reliable trading proposition when a long enough time (trade) series is taken. I rather look at what is driving individual moves – which asset classes influence it the most at a given time? Where to look for so as to get most precise information? With gold and gold miners (they still trade quite tightly together), it's the Treasury yields on the long end.As I wrote in today's (Feb 18) precious metals report, despite the new 2021 lows in TLT, gold isn't amplifying the pressure – it's trading well above the $1,770 level, and enjoys a stronger session today than silver. Look at the gold – TLT evolving relationship, as that's the key determinant right now. The post-Nov dynamic speaks in gold's favor – under the surface. Don't underestimate the Fed either.Plenty to talk and cover in the precious metals really – just as usual at such crossroads. Let‘s briefly recap all the ducks lining up in stocks first.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and VolatilityRepeated lower knots mark a refusal to decline as the daily dips keep being bought. Given the constructive developments in high yield corporate bonds and its key ratio (HYG and HYG:SHY), I fully expect the uptrend to keep reasserting itself once again. The talk about a top, imminent correction or stretched valuations, is still premature.The best known volatility measure is still refusing to rise on a lasting basis, indicating that the environment remains favorable to higher stock prices.Dollar and TreasuriesThe world reserve currency is on the doorstep of another powerful decline, and not initiating a bull market run. The caption says it all – this is the time for antidollar plays to thrive in our era of ample credit, unprecedented money creation that‘s triggering a Roaring Twenties style of speculative environment, not a Kondratieff winter with a deflationary shock as you might hear some argue.Look around, check food, energy, or housing prices, and you‘ll see how connected to reality are the calls of those writing that inflation isn‘t a problem (monetary inflation lifting many asset classes). Check that against Fed President Daly stating that the inflationary pressures now point downwards… and make your own conclusions about the new money wave hitting the real economy.Gold, Silver and MinersJust as gold is challenging (resting on) the late Nov lows, so is the miners to gold ratio. That‘s a key one – I mentioned at the very end of Jan that I would like to see it start to lead higher. Seeing the latest two-day losing streak, it‘s not happening, and the late Jan breakdown which might have turned out to be false, may not materialize in the short run. Let‘s get a proper perspective by displaying this chart in weekly format.Is this the dreadful breakdown threating doom and gloom in the precious metals? Zooming out definitely provides a very different take – a more objective one than letting (fear) emotions run high and tickitis to take over.We‘re still consolidating, and not making lower lows – regardless of this week‘s increased gold sensitivity to rising yields as seen in the plunging TLT values. Inflation is making its way through the system as surely as Titanic‘s watertight compartments were filled with water. I‘ve discussed on Wednesday at length inflation, past Fed action and asset appreciation, and yesterday explained why the central bank will be tied into a war on two fronts as it gets to seek control over the yield curve at the long end too.Another short-term worrying chart as silver miners are caught in last days‘ selling whirlwind. Even the juniors lost their short-term edge over the seniors, making me think that a potential washout event before a more universal sectoral rebound, might be at hand.Pretty worrying for those who are all in gold – unless they took me up on last Friday‘s repeated idea that silver is going to outperform gold in the next precious metals upleg, which I formulated that day into a spread (arbitrage) trade long silver, short gold. Check out the following chart how that would have worked out for you.The dynamics favoring silver are unquestionable – starting from varied and growing industrial applications, strengthening manufacturing and economy recovery, poor outlook in silver above ground stockpile and recycling, to the white metal being also a monetary metal. Silver is bound to score better gains than gold, marred by the Bitcoin allure, would. SummaryThe bearish push in stocks didn‘t indeed take the sellers far – just as I wrote yesterday, there was no reason to hold on to your hat. The stock bull run is firmly entrenched, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction right away as all we‘re going through, is a shallow correction (in time especially).Bearish dollar, $1.9T or similar stimulus not priced in, and yet gold isn‘t taking a dive. Amid very positive fundamentals, it‘s the technicals that are short-term challenging for gold – we‘re in truly unchartered territory given the economic policies pursued. I stand by my call to watch the TLT chart very closely – it looks like an orderly TLT decline is what gold needs, not a selling stampede. Despite the current disclocation with gold being the weakest of the weak (I am looking at commodities for cues), I still stand by the call that a new PMs upleg is only a question of time – a shortening one, at that.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

GBPUSD Steadies Over A Three-And-Half-Year High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.02.2021 07:47
Risk on sentiment pushes dollar lowerEuro Closes The Week Almost FlatThe euro currency managed to pull back after hitting a two-week low during the week. Price action remains steady within the 1.2050 and 1.2144 levels for the moment.The overall trend remains flat with the key price level established. Only a strong break out from either of these levels will indicate further direction in the trend.The Stochastics oscillator on the daily chart could likely signal a move to the upside.However, for this to happen, the euro currency will need to break out above 1.2177 – 1.2144 levels.To the downside, support is firmly established at 1.2050 which has held up on the previous retest.The British pound sterling has closed with gains for six consecutive weekly sessions so far.The gains put the GBPUSD over a three and half year high, closing on Friday at 1.4018. This puts the currency pair near a multi-year support/resistance level.A continuation to the upside could see further gains coming.In the short term, price action is able to make consistent higher lows in maintaining the bullish trend. Therefore, further gains are likely as long as the current moment holds.The daily Stochastics oscillator is in the overbought levels since 9th February. This could, however, change if the momentum shifts to the downside.For the moment, the initial level near 1.3851 will be key ahead of any short term corrections.Oil Prices Pullback From A 13-Month HighOn Friday, WTI Crude oil prices closed with back to back losses. This led to the weekly price action closing in the red after prices briefly rose above 61.35 earlier in the week.The declines come after oil prices have been moving in a sharp and steady trend.On the 4-hour charts, we see the trendline breached. This has led to a modest pullback with prices rejected ahead of moving lower.If oil prices continue to move lower, then we could see the 57.35 level of support being tested. Establishing support here could potentially boost the upside.The Stochastics oscillator is currently near the oversold levels and could see some recovery in prices.To the upside, the price level of 60.87 needs to be breached in order for oil prices continue pushing higher.Gold Pulls Back From A Seven-Month LowThe precious metal fell to a seven-month low over the week before managing to recovery with bullish gains on Friday.Price action closed with gains after Thursday’s doji pattern. This also comes near the support level of 1764.With the Stochastics oscillator also turning higher, the current rebound could see gold prices likely to test the 1817.79 level of to establish resistance once again.Overall, price action could remain trading within these levels for the near term. Further downside is likely if gold loses the support near 1764.For the moment, there is a possibility that the precious metal could move to the upside.This is especially true with the Stochastics oscillator on the daily chart moving deeper into the oversold levels.
VALUE ONE AND NUVEEN REAL ESTATE TO ENTER POLISH PBSA MARKET

VALUE ONE AND NUVEEN REAL ESTATE TO ENTER POLISH PBSA MARKET

Stock market news Stock market news 22.02.2021 13:06
Eagle JVCo, the investment vehicle established in 2019 between Vienna-based Value One and Nuveen Real Estate on behalf of its parent TIAA, has agreed to acquire a portfolio of purpose-built student housing and two development sites in Poland. The portfolio comprises approximately 800 beds of investment and development assets, and will be operated by Value One’s student housing platform, MILESTONE, Austria’s leading provider of premium student housing with a portfolio of over 4,600 student beds in operation and under development in Austria, Portugal, Germany, Poland, Italy and the Netherlands. Nuveen Real Estate is one of the largest real estate investment managers in the world with $129 billion of assets under management. The company is the investment advisor to the venture while Value One and MILESTONE provide origination, development management and operational expertise. Eagle’s professional advisory team comprised Akron Management, Savills, Crido Legal, B2RLaw and Linklaters. Kamil Kowa, Director, Savills Poland Board Member, said: “We are delighted to have advised Nuveen Real Estate and Value One in their debut on the Polish PBSA market. Despite Covid-19 challenges the outlook for this sector remains very positive. Poland proved that it can attract international students and the lack of quality purpose-built accommodation creates an opportunity for new-commers. Investors experienced in western markets can help to increase the development pace of the student housing sector in Poland and relatively quickly deliver high-quality properties.” Marcus Roberts, Savills Head of European Investment & Development, Operational Capital Markets, says: “Savills is proud to continue to support the pan-European expansion of the JV’s student housing platform, having advised the parties involved since its inception. This is another great example of cross border client collaboration.”
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

The Yield Harbinger for Stocks

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.02.2021 15:32
Indices, for the most part, closed fractionally higher to end the week. But a new headwind for stocks could be more concerning - rising bond yields.That correction I’ve been calling for weeks could have potentially started.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said last week that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”But rather than looking at the past, let’s take a look at what’s on tap this week to get you ready for what could potentially be a volatile week ahead.This coming week, be on the lookout for the January leading indicator index, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending.On Tuesday, we will also receive the February Consumer Confidence Index; on Wednesday, the Census Bureau will release upcoming home sales. On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index.Of course, as we’ve seen in weeks past, jobless claims from the previous week will be announced on Thursday too. After outperforming the last few weeks, the jobless claims announced last Thursday (Feb. 18) grossly underperformed and reached their worst levels in nearly a month.Earnings season has been outstanding but is winding down now. Be on the lookout this week for earnings from Royal Caribbean (RCL) on Monday (Feb. 22), Square (SQ) on Tuesday (Feb. 23), Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday (Feb. 24), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Moderna (MRNA) on Thursday (Feb. 25).We have the makings of a volatile week, and as I mentioned before, a possible correction.Look. Don’t panic. We have a very market-friendly monetary policy, and corrections are more common than most realize. Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.While it won’t happen for sure, I feel like it’s inevitable because of how much we have surged over the last few months.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Will the Russell 2000 Overheat Again?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)The Russell 2000 popped on Friday (Feb. 19) after seeing a bit of a pullback since February 9. Between February 9 and the close on February 18, the Russell 2000 lagged behind the other indices after significantly overheating. I switched my call to a SELL then on the 9th, and it promptly declined by 3.40% before Friday’s session.I foresaw the pullback but cautiously saw a rally and switched to a HOLD call before it popped over 2% on Friday (Feb. 19).I do love small-caps for 2021, and I liked the decline before Friday. However, I feel like the index needs a minimum decline of 5% from its highs before switching it to a BUY.As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks have been on a rampage since November.Since the market’s close on October 30, the IWM has gained nearly 47.56% and more than doubled ETFs’ returns tracking the larger indices. If you thought that the Nasdaq was red hot and frothy, you have no idea about the Russell 2000.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up a staggering 16.38%.It pains me not to recommend you to BUY the Russell just yet. I love this index’s outlook for 2021. Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world could bode well for small-caps. Consumer spending, especially for small-caps, could be very pent-up as well.But we just need to hold on and wait for it to cool down just a little bit more for a better entry point.HOLD. If and when there is a deeper pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Kiss of Life for Gold

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2021 16:24
The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.Plenty of action that‘s bound to decide the coming weeks‘ shape in the precious metals. And not only there as oil experienced 2 days of lossess in a row – practically unheard of in 2021 so far. On Saturday, I‘ve added a new section to my site, Latest Highlight, for easier orientation in the milestone calls and timeless pieces beyond the S&P 500 and gold. Enjoy!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe weekly indicators suggest that a reversal is still not likely. There is no conviction behind the weekly decline, and signs are still pointing to a sideways consolidation underway.The daily chart reflects the relatively uneventful trading – we‘re in a phase of bullish base building before powering off to new highs. See how little the daily indicators have retreated from their extended readings, and the barely noticeable price decline associated.S&P 500 InternalsAll the three market breadth indicators show improved readings, and my eyes are on new highs new lows throwing their weight behind the prior two indicators‘ advance. The overall impression is one of balance.The value to growth (VTV:QQQ) ratio shows that tech (XLK ETF) has fallen a bit out out of step recently – we‘re undergoing another microrotation into value stocks. The stock market leadership is thus broadening, confirming the findings from the advance-decline line (and advance-decline volume) examination.Credit MarketsOne chart to illustrate the bond market pressures – high yield corporate bonds are holding gained ground while investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries are plunging like there is no tomorrow. With each of their rebound attempt sold, the dislocations are increasing – a great testament to the euphoric stage of the stock market advance. Gold and TreasuriesGold price action isn‘t as bearish as it might seem based on last week‘s moves. Yes, the readiness to decline in sympathy with rising yields, is diconcerting, but the yellow metal stopped practically at the late Nov lows, and refused to decline further. Low prices attracted buying interest, and due to the overwhelmingly negative sentiment for the week ahead, the yellow metal may surprise on the upside. Time for the bulls to prove themselves as the tone of coming weeks‘ trading in gold is in the balance.The daily chart‘s correlation coefficient has moved into strongly positive territory in 2021, illustrating the headwinds gold faces. Despite the prevailing wisdom, such strongly positive correlation isn‘t the rule over extended periods of time. That‘s the message of the daily chart – but let‘s step back and see the bigger picture similarly to the way I did on Friday witht the $HUI:$GOLD ratio.Not an encouraging sight at the moment. The tightness of mutual relationship is there, and given the decreased focus on timing (one candle representing one week) coupled with the correlation coefficient being calculated again over a 20 period sample, the week just over shows that regardless of the post-Nov resilience, gold is clearly getting under more pressure.Gold and DollarLet‘s do the same what I did about long-term Treasuries and gold, also about the dollar and gold. Their historically negative correlation is receding at the moment as the two face their own challenges. The key question is when and from what level would the fiat currency and its nemesis return to trading in the opposite directions. Such a time is highly likely to be conducive to higher gold prices.On the weekly chart, the negative correlation periods are winning out in length and frequency. Certainly given the less sensitive timining component through weekly candlesticks and 20-period calculation, the current strength and level of positive correlation is rather an exception and not a rule. Combining this chart‘s positive correlation between the two with the daily chart‘s negative yet rising readings, highlights in my view a potential for seeing an upset in the momentary relationship.In other words, the gold decline over the past now almost 7 months going hand in hand with mostly sliding dollar, would turn into higher gold prices accompanied by lower dollar values. How much higher gold prices, that depends on the long-term Treasuries market – that‘s the one playing the decisive role, not the dollar at the moment.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is doing fine, platinum very well, while gold struggles and needs to prove itself. That‘s the essence of the long silver short gold trade idea – the silver to gold ratio attests to that.Quoting from Friday‘s analysis:(…) The dynamics favoring silver are unquestionable – starting from varied and growing industrial applications, strengthening manufacturing and economy recovery, poor outlook in silver above ground stockpile and recycling, to the white metal being also a monetary metal. Silver is bound to score better gains than gold, marred by the Bitcoin allure, would. Final chart of today‘s extensive analysis is about the two miners to gold ratios, and the divergencies they show. The ETF-based one (GDX:GLD) is sitting at support marked by both the late Nov and late Jan lows, while $HUI:$GOLD is probing to break below its late Jan lows, and these were already lower than the respective late Nov lows.Both ratios are sending a mixed picture, in line with the theme of my latest reports – gold is on razor‘s edge, and the technical picture is mixed given its latest weakness. That‘s the short run – I expect that once the Fed‘s hand is twisted enough in TLT and TLH, and speculation on yield curve control initiation rises, the focus in the precious metals would shift to inflation and its dynamics I‘ve described both on Wed and Fri. SummaryThe sellers in stocks aren‘t getting far these days, and signals remain aligned behind the S&P 500 advance to reassert itself. Neither the Russell 2000, nor emerging markets are flashing divergencies, and the path of least resistance in stocks remains higher.Gold‘s short-term conundrum continues - positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so in the near future, yet the key charts show the king of metals under pressure, with long-term Treasury yields arguably holding the key to gold‘s short-term future. The decoupling events seen earlier this month, got a harsh reality check in the week just over. Yet, that‘s not a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players have rushed to the short side in the short run too.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.02.2021 17:26
The recent FOMC minutes are hawkish and negative for the price of gold, but the Fed will remain generally dovish for some time.Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published minutes from its last meeting in January . They reveal that Fed officials became more optimistic about the economy than they were in December. The main reasons behind the more upbeat economic projection were the progress in vaccinations, the government’s stimulus provided by the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021, and the expectations of an additional sizable tranche of fiscal support in the pipeline:Most participants expected that the stimulus provided by the passage of the CAA in December, the likelihood of additional fiscal support, and anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity.The Committee members were so convinced that the longer-run prospects for the economy had improved, that they decided to skip reference to the risks to the outlook in their official communications:in light of the expected progress on vaccinations and the change in the outlook for fiscal policy, the medium-term prospects for the economy had improved enough that members decided that the reference in previous post-meeting statements to risks to the economic outlook over the medium term was no longer warranted.Hence, the recent minutes are generally hawkish and bad for gold . They show that the FOMC participants turned out to be more optimistic about the U.S. economy over the medium-term, as they started to expect “strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confidence, as well as accommodative fiscal and monetary policy.”And, although they acknowledged that inflation may rise somewhat in 2021, the Fed officials generally were not concerned about strong upward pressure, with “most” participants still believing that inflation risks were weighted to the downside rather to the upside. In other words, they expect more growth than inflation.Implications for GoldThe Fed officials that have become more optimistic about the economy are proving negative for gold prices. Gold shines most when the Fed is pessimistic about GDP growth and the labor market, as these two factors are more prone to loosen the Fed’s monetary policy . In other words, gold prices need more inflation than economic growth in order to grow. Alternatively, gold needs the Fed to do something and expand its monetary accommodation.Indeed, the last week hasn’t been good for the price of the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, it declined below $1,800 to $1,773 on Thursday (Feb. 18), the lowest level since November 2020.Of course, the decline in the gold prices was more related to the significant selloff in the U.S. bond market than to the FOMC minutes. The bond yields increased sharply. For instance, the 10-year TIPS yields rose from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.87 on February 18, 2021, as one can see in the chart below.However, both events clearly show elevated expectations about the medium-term economic growth. Both investors and central bankers have become more optimistic about the future amid progress in vaccinations and greater prospects for additional fiscal stimulus. The strengthened risk appetite has supported equity prices, making some investors head for the exits in the gold market .Having said that, although gold prices still have some room to go lower – especially if real interest rates rally further – the fundamentals are still positive . I’m referring here to the fact that the U.S. economy has fallen into the debt trap . Both private and public debt is enormous. In such an environment, the interest rates cannot significantly increase, as they would pose a great risk to an overvalued equity market and Treasury. So, the Fed wouldn’t allow for really high interest rates and would intervene, either through expanding its quantitative easing program or through capping the yield curve .Another issue is that the Fed is not going to change its dovish monetary policy anytime soon. Even in the recent, relatively upbeat minutes, Fed officials acknowledged that economic conditions were far from the central banks’ targets:Participants observed that the economy was far from achieving the Committee’s broad-based and inclusive goal of maximum employment and that even with a brisk pace of improvement in the labor market, achieving this goal would take some time (…) Participants noted that economic conditions were currently far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the stance for policy would need to remain accommodative until those goals were achieved.Moreover, the Fed’s staff assessed the financial vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system as being notable . The asset valuation pressures are elevated, and vulnerabilities associated with business and household debt increased over the course of 2020, from levels that were already elevated before the outbreak of the pandemic . So, given all these fragilities, it is unlikely that we will see a really hawkish Fed or significantly higher interest rates. There is also a possibility of the next financial crisis, given the high debt levels. All these factors should support gold prices in the long-term, although more declines in the short-term are possible of course, due to the more positive sentiment among investors and rising bond yields.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

USD falls for the third consecutive day

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.02.2021 07:15
EURUSD On Track For A Three-Day GainThe euro currency is on track for a three-day back to back gain. Price action is recovering sharply following the declines during the middle of last week.For the moment, price action will be challenging last week’s highs of 1.2168. A convincing breakout above the resistance area of 1.2177 will put the bullish bias back on the table.Currently, the 4-hour chart is also shaping up to show an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, a successful breakout above 1.2177 will push the euro currency toward 1.231 level at the very least.This will mark a lower high comparing to the highs from January this year.GBPUSD Maintains Its Impressive RallyThe British pound sterling maintains a strong hold on the bullish momentum with six consecutive weekly gains so far.Price action is nearing the April 2008 highs of 1.4376. The strong uptrend could be further cemented if the cable breaks out sharply from the rising price channel.The immediate support to the downside is near the 1.3951 level at the moment. However, with the current pace of gains, we expect prices to continue rising above the 1.4000 level.On the daily chart as well, price action remains biased to the upside following the strong bullish reversal pattern on Thursday last week.Crude Oil Attempts To Pare LossesWTI crude oil prices are looking bullish with price action posting a strong recovery after the declines from Thursday and Friday last week.For the moment, price is yet to breakout above last Thursday’s highs of 62.22. But this is essential for the commodity to maintain its bullish position.Following the reversal in the direction on Monday, we expect the minor support near 58.85 to hold prices from declining further.To the upside, oil prices will be battling the confluence of the horizontal resistance level and the trendline around the 60.87 region.If price fails to close out above this level, we could see a correction down to the 57.35 level eventually.Gold Prices Rise To A Four-Day HighThe precious metal is posting strong gains on Monday, capitalizing on a weaker greenback. As a result, price action is up over 1.5% intraday and is trading near a four-day high.Despite the current gains, XAUUSD will need to breakout above the 1817.79 level of resistance. A breakout above this level will also push price action out from the falling price channel.This could potentially signal the end of the correction in gold prices as the upside resumes.However, ahead of further gains, a high low within the 1817.79 – 1764.22 levels could give it more upside bias. This will potentially confirm the end of the current declines.Above 1817.79, gold prices will challenge the 1850 levels next.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motion

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.02.2021 11:19
Bitcoin surpassed another milestone trading well over 50k last week. Even the strongest doubters start joining in. All professionals have begun to take a bite, and we are far from speculating if this idea has merit. Now the question is how long it will hold steadfast under the attack of possible government coin inventions.It isn’t easily replaced since it already has a history. New inventions might not become an immediately acceptable standard. After all, the large part is trust. We are always rushing to Gold and Silver because of its long historical trust established as a means of barter. With a world much more intertwined geographically, we need a third payment method to allow for large-distance transactions. Something Gold and Silver cannot easily provide.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, When to get in:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2021.The question isn’t any longer if Bitcoin will make it or whether it is a bubble or whether it is a temporary thing. The question all that are not holding Bitcoin should be asking is: “Where can I get in?”With bitcoin´s past volatility, it is safe to say we will find ourselves in a retracement in the not-to-distant future where entries near US$51,500 and at the levels below of US$47,500 and US$37,500 are entry zones to keep an eye on. No need to bet the farm but ignoring Bitcoin to wait for another round of next advances isn’t advisable. BTC-USDT, Hourly Chart, Know when to get out:BTC-USDT, hourly chart as of February 22nd, 2021.One can tell what type of money has entered the arena by the way price is advancing. When breakout trades in frequency dominate all other chart pattern formations, it is evident that less-educated funds entered the arena. Last Friday, we advised channel members in our free Telegram channel to take partial profits at US$55,500, a smart point of exit. Yes, prices did advance even higher to US$58,352, but we perceive markets not from maximizing profits but from a risk perspective. This chart shows how volatile noise came in right after these price levels and bears and bulls started their struggle. A time where one would want to be exposed with less position size and stay sidelining from an entry perspective.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motion:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2021.One might think that 58k is high. Especially looking back that Bitcoin at some point could be acquired for less than US$2. Those exposed for a more extended period to this investment vehicle, remember the fierce retracements of up to 80-90%. The future does not have to equal the past. With most of the money from a volume perspective not being allocated yet, we still find an immense potential for much higher price levels than Bitcoin trading right here. Yes, we might find ourselves in a steep retracement once this first bull wave is over. All this should be perceived is as an opportunity and not feared of Bitcoin going away. It won’t.With second legs typically being much larger than the first and a three-leg advancement being modest, we find our projections conservative.Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motion:In times where hyperinflation again destroys much that some hoped for and others worked for, by over-borrowing, the need for a barter method that cannot be diluted, Bitcoin fits like a glove. Its mathematical standard of limitation to the number of twenty-one million allows for the trust given not to be disappointed. Like times where we had the gold standard, one can rely on its stability. It found its stable place alongside precious metals to be a safe haven and a way to continue doing business and measure one’s wealth against. Its mathematical beauty provides the safety and freedom needed to return to truthful value exchange.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

It‘s Only Tech That‘s Sold – Not S&P 500, Gold Or Silver

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2021 15:52
S&P 500 is getting under modest pressure, and technology is to blame. Is the correction about to turn nasty from sideways? Still no signs of that, even as the investment grade corporate bonds are being sold of as hard as long-term Treasuries. Yet, these corporate instruments have only now broken below their late Oct lows – unlike long-dated Treasuries, whose price action resembles free fall.These government debt instruments are arguably the key asset class for every precious metals investor to watch. What used to be gentle decoupling signs over the latest weeks and months, got thoroughly tested the prior week. Yet, I stood firm in not calling gold down and out. The support zone at late Nov lows generated a rebound that was oh so likely to materialize.Silver naturally outperformed, both copper and oil had a strong day, and agrifoods are making new highs. The inflation dynamics described in Friday‘s article aptly called Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals, continues unabated, and the pressure keeps building inside the metals and commodities. Not even the dollar managed to benefit from the rising yields – the resumption of its bear market I called on Feb 08, is one of the 2021 themes. Money keeps flowing from the Treasuries market, and there is plenty sitting on the sidelines (corporate or private) to still deploy and power stocks and precious metals higher. Also those ready to withstand Bitcoin volatility (hello, the weekend Elon Musk tweet follow through), stand to benefit – cryptos are behaving like a store of value, a hedge against currency debasement. I wrote in my very first 2021 analysis that the Bitcoin correction wouldn‘t get far.Powell‘s testimony is about to bring volatility, but does it have the power to change underlying trends? Not really – while his latest high profile assessments brought about a downswing, stocks recovered in spite of the GameStop (contagion?) drama too. Should we see a replay of the above, new highs are coming – and they are, in both stocks and precious metals. We‘re in a commodities supercycle on top!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe daily chart shows yesterday‘s turn of events clearly. The volume increased, indicating that the bulls will need to grapple with more downside.Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have curled noticeably, yet new highs new lows continues higher. That‘s a confirmation of the broad based nature of the stock market advance, further illustrated with the following chart.What if all the constituent shares in the S&P 500 had equal weight (i.e. there is no $NYFANG)? The above chart is the reflection – and it‘s challenging the latest highs. The rotation theme I‘m discussing so often, means in this case taking the baton from tech, and seeing it pass to value stocks. Such broad advance is a healthy characteristic of bull runs far from making a top.TechnologyHere is the culprit behind yesterday‘s decline – on increasing volume, technology (XLK ETF) has plunged. Yet it‘s the semiconductors (XSD ETF) that I am looking at for clues as to how reasonable has the decline been. And given how the tech is holding up, it‘s a bit accentuated.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still behaving reasonably – the overlaid S&P 500 prices (black line) aren‘t accelerating to the downside. Thus far, everything keeps pointing to stocks behaving a bit more sensitively than throughout 2021 mostly, yet far from crashing or showing their readiness to. The real correction has to wait still – this is not the real deal.Gold, Silver and TreasuriesGold price action indeed proved not to be as bearish. Finally, we‘re seeing a clear refusal to move down even as Treasury yields continue to plunge. How long will this new dynamics stick, where would it take the yellow metal? I treat it as a valuable first swallow.The scissors between gold and silver keep widening, and the white metal again outperformed yesterday. That‘s exactly the dynamics of the new precious metals upleg that I‘m expecting.Both depicted miners to gold ratios show a clear pattern of post Nov resilience. GDX:GLD is not breaking to new lows, while $HUI:$GOLD rejected them. Bobbing around, searching for a local bottom before launching higher? That‘s my leading scenario.SummaryThe unfolding correction got a new twist with yesterday‘s downswing in stocks, and unless tech gets its act together, appears set to run further. Emerging markets fell harder than the Russell 2000 yesterday, which is another proof that the correction isn‘t yet over.Gold and silver price action remain encouraging, and the same can be said about oil and many other commodities. Once the stimulus bill is passed, the positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so, given the Fed‘s accomodative policies. Will these work to stave off the rising Treasury yields as well? If so, then gold‘s fundamentals got a crucial boost, which would soon be seen in the technicals too. As I wrote yesterday, the metals didn‘t get a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players on the short side in the short run, means a high likelihood of a reversal – which is precisely what we saw.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

GBPUSD Steadies On Lockdown Lifting Optimism

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.02.2021 07:26
USD turns volatile as Powell testifies to CongressEURUSD Perched In Resistance Area The euro currency is strongly consolidating within the resistance levels of 1.2177 and 1.2144.Price action managed to rise to the upper level of the range before giving back the gains. The volatility in the tight range comes as the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress.A breakout above 1.2177 could open the way for the common currency towards wider gains. This will potentially see price action rising to test the highs from January this year.Alternately, if prices fail near the resistance level then we expect a move back lower.To the downside, support at 1.2050 should hold the declines for the moment.The British pound sterling, which has already seen a strong bull run got another boost on Tuesday.The UK Government prepared a roadmap towards re-opening its economy. This puts further upside pressure on the currency pair which is already enjoying a strong rally.Price action is trading outside the rising price channel currently. With the Stochastics oscillator firmly in the overbought levels, the upside momentum could fail.Any downside corrections could stall near the 1.3951 level of support for the moment.Given that the currency pair has been pushing higher on a steady note, we could expect a brief pullback in the near term.WTI Crude Oil Pulls Back From A New 13-Month High Oil prices surged higher intraday on Tuesday. Prices tested a new 13-month high of 62.96 in the early Asian trading session.However, since then, oil prices gradually drifted back lower. The test of support near 60.87 confirms that prices are well supported at this level.However, for the short term, oil prices will need to breakout higher and continue further to maintain the bullish trend.The Stochastics oscillator on the four-hour chart is also likely to signal another push to the upside.For the moment, the line in the sand is the 60.87 technical support. If oil prices lose this support, then we expect a deeper correction down to 57.35 or toward the 19 Feb lows of 58.56.Gold Gains Slow As Price Approaches 1817.79 The precious metal pulled back just a few points away from the 1817.79 level of technical resistance.The Stochastics oscillator which is currently signaling a hidden bearish divergence could see a continuation in price to the downside.This is unless, of course, the precious metal manages to breakout above the 1817.79 price level. Such a move will potentially open the way toward the 1850 handle.Meanwhile, if prices drift lower then we could expect a move closer to the 1764 level of support. However, it is unlikely that this level of support will be tested once again.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Tech Holds the Key to S&P 500

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.02.2021 15:38
The Powell inspired, coinciding (have your pick) S&P 500 stop run is almost history now, with the futures trading over 3,880 again as we speak. No surprise here, but since the long-term Treasuries plunge went on largely unabated, that‘s concerning.Even if not now as in right away, TLT and TLH have to power to trouble the stock bulls seriously. And the financials benefiting from the greater spread, won‘t save the day, as the key chart to watch now is technology and also healthcare. Healthcare especially because biotech didn‘t get its act together yesterday really, while semiconductors did better. With consumer discretionaries hurt, utilities and consumer staples can‘t be relied on in a rising rates environment, and communications can‘t save the day either. The sectoral outlook remains mixed, even as value continues greatly outperforming growth this month. The stock bulls simply need tech clearly stabilized and turning here so as to think about new S&P 500 highs again. Long-term Treasuries are starting to hold greater sway over the stock market fate now, too. The dollar‘s woes thus far continue playing out largely in the background.Did gold shake off the TLT shackles? Still early to say, but the clear, directionally opposite move gives the bulls benefit of the doubt thus far. Yesterday‘s gold session didn‘t convince me, so I am not trumpeting the end of yellow metal‘s downside yet. Still, cautious optimism remains – even in the short run, let alone for the medium- to long-term: there, the (bullish) picture is simply clearer.Let‘s remember my yesterday‘s words about trends and flashes in the pan:(…) Powell‘s testimony is about to bring volatility, but does it have the power to change underlying trends? Not really – while his latest high profile assessments brought about a downswing, stocks recovered in spite of the GameStop (contagion?) drama too. Should we see a replay of the above, new highs are coming – and they are, in both stocks and precious metals. We‘re in a commodities supercycle on top!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookYesterday‘s intraday reversal reached just a little above Monday‘s closing prices, highlighting that more needs to be done for the index to regain upside momentum. The Powell testimony reversal was a good start, and stock bulls need to do more once this event gets in the rear view mirror later today. Given the premarket action reaching 3,890, the case is not lost.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) recovered, and crucially did better than stocks. The volume comparison is also a tad more positive. Should this credit market outperformance in the short run hold, then the S&P 500 is more likley to advance than not, too.High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still behaving reasonably – the overlaid S&P 500 prices (black line) aren‘t accelerating to the downside. The cue to move higher in stocks is apparent.TechnologyIt‘s the tech (XLK ETF) again – its yesterday‘s reversal is not nearly enough for the S&P 500 to think about taking on new highs. Semiconductors (XSD ETF) subtly outperformed, but they don‘t give outrageously bullish signs either. The tech jury is still out, and this heavyweight sector remains vulnerable, with consequences to the S&P 500 if it doesn‘t keep on the muddle through recovery path at the very least.Treasuries and DollarNo spike in TLT volume shows there isn‘t real willingness to buy the dip the way it were in mid Feb – back then, I could call for a moderation in the decline‘s pace for at least a day, now I can‘t do that. This chart presents the greatest challenge for the markets – going well beyond stocks, precious metals and commodities. Dollar bulls are predictably on the run. Truly bearish chart targeting much lower lows, in line with the theme I‘ve been banging throughout 2020‘s latter half – the dollar has gotten on the defensive, and would remain there throughout 2021. The technical rebound is over, and not even higher yields can help the greenback much.Gold, Silver and PlatinumTrue, gold‘s yesterday‘s candle leaves much to be desired for the bulls, but once again, we‘re seeing a clear refusal to move down even as Treasury yields continue to plunge. It‘s still a valuable first swallow, and more has to follow. Gold isn‘t getting anywhere in today‘s premarket while silver, copper, oil and soybeans are all up mildly. Agrifoods reached a new 2021 high yesterday – commodities clearly like and anticipate the inflationary Fed speak message they get.One look at the precious metals group – gold the laggard, silver leading, and platinum even more so – check out on the caption when the latter decoupled – 2 weeks before silver did. The anatomy of the unfolding precious metals upleg goes on in this predictable fashion, where platinum has the power to keep running more along the lines of commodities such as copper. That means powerfully.Yesterday‘s watchout though are the miners, which dragged down both the $HUI:$GOLD and GDX:GLD ratios – not below their lows, but still. A great illustration of the yellow metal‘s woes, and low credibility of its yesterday‘s candle with a sizable lower knot.SummaryStock bulls are far out of the woods yet, and technology stabilization must kick in first. Little proof thus far it‘s there, and I view the rising rates as starting to bite the stock market too.Gold and silver also got under the Powell pressure yesterday, and haven‘t escaped the confines of Treasury yields pressure thus far. The markets are clearly wary of the testimony‘s part II still.
How Bond Yields Are Affecting Gold

How Bond Yields Are Affecting Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.02.2021 17:54
As U.S. Treasury yields rise, gold, which is seen as an inflation hedge, is hurting. Despite the obvious warning signs, investors remain bullish.After Monday’s (Feb. 22) supposedly “groundbreaking” rally, the situation in gold developed in tune with what I wrote yesterday . The rally stopped, and miners’ decline indicated that it was a counter-trend move.Figure 1Despite Monday’s (quite sharp for a daily move) upswing, the breakdown below the neck level of the broad head-and-shoulders remains intact. It wasn’t invalidated. In fact, based on Monday’s rally and yesterday’s (Feb. 23) decline, it was verified. One of the trading guidelines is to wait for the verification of the breakdown below the H&S pattern before entering a position.What about gold stocks ratio with other stocks?Figure 2It’s exactly the same thing. The breakdown below the rising long-term support line remains intact. The recent upswing was just a quick comeback to the broken line that didn’t take it above it. Conversely, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio declined once again.Consequently, bearish implications of the breakdowns remain up-to-date . Having said that, let’s consider the more fundamental side of things.Swimming Against the CurrentAfter trading lower for six consecutive days, gold managed to muster a three-day winning streak. However, with the waves chopping and the ripple gaining steam, every swim higher requires more energy and yield’s decelerating results.For weeks , I’ve been warning that a declining copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio signaled a further downside for gold. And with the ratio declining by 2.88% last week, gold suffered a 2.51% drawdown.Please see below:Figure 3Over the long-term, the ratio is a reliable predictor of the yellow metal’s future direction. And even though the weekly reading (3.04) hit its lowest level since May 2020, it still has plenty of room to move lower.Figure 4For context, I wrote previously:To explain the chart above, the red line depicts the price of gold over the last ~21 years, while the green line depicts the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio. As you can see, the two have a tight relationship: when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is rising (meaning that copper prices are rising at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield), it usually results in higher gold prices. Conversely, when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is falling (meaning that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is rising at a faster pace than copper prices), it usually results in lower gold prices.As the star of the ratio’s show, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has risen by more than 47% year-to-date (YTD) and the benchmark has surged by more than 163% since its August trough.Please see below:Figure 5On Jan. 15 , I warned that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) had painted itself into a corner. With inflation running hot and Chairman Jerome Powell ignoring the obvious, I wrote that Powell’s own polices (and their impact on real and financial assets) actually eliminate his ability to determine when interest rates rise.As a result, the central bank had two options:If they let yields rise, the cost of borrowing rises, the cost of equity rises and the U.S. dollar is supported (all leading to shifts in the bond and stock markets and destroying the halcyon environment they worked so hard to create).To stop yields from rising, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) has to increase its asset purchases (and buy more bonds in the open market). However, the added liquidity should have the same net-effect because it increases inflation expectations (which I mentioned yesterday, is a precursor to higher interest rates). Opening door #2, Powell’s deny-and-suppress strategy is now playing out in real time. On Feb. 23 – testifying before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee – the FED Chairman told lawmakers that inflation isn’t an issue.“We’ve been living in a world for a quarter of a century where the pressures were disinflationary,” he said.... “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals.”And whether he’s unaware or simply ill-informed, commodity prices are surging. Since the New Year, oil and lumber prices have risen by more than 24%, while corn and copper prices are up by more than 14%.Please see below:Figure 6In addition, relative to finished goods, the entire basket of inputs is sounding the alarm.Figure 7To explain the chart above, the blue line is an index of the price businesses receive for their finished goods. Similarly, the green line is an index of the price businesses pay for raw materials. As you can see, the cost of doing business is rising at a torrent pace.More importantly though, Powell’s assertion that inflation is an urban legend has been met with eye rolls from the bond market . To repeat what I wrote above: Powell’s own policies (and their impact on real and financial assets) actually eliminate his ability to determine when interest rates rise.Case in point: the U.S. 10-year to 2-year government bond spread is now at its highest level since January 2017.Please see below:Figure 8To explain the significance, the figure is calculated by subtracting the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield from the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. When the green line is rising, it means that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is increasing at a faster pace than the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield. Conversely, when the green line is falling, it means that the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield is increasing at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield.And why does all of this matter?Because the above visual is evidence that Powell has lost control of the bond market.At the front-end of the curve, Powell can control the 2-year yield by decreasing the FED’s overnight lending rate (which was cut to zero at the outset of the coronavirus crisis). However, far from being monolithic, the 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields have the ability to chart their own paths.And their current message to the Chairman? “We aren’t buying what you’re selling.” As such, the yield curve is likely to continue its steepening stampede.Circling back to gold, all of the above supports a continued decline of the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio. With yields essentially released from captivity, even copper’s 8.02% weekly surge wasn’t enough to buck the trend.As a result, gold’s recent strength is likely a mirage. The yellow metal continues to bounce in fits and starts, thus, it’s only a matter of time before the downtrend continues. Furthermore, with the USD Index still sitting on the sidelines, a resurgent greenback would add even more concrete to gold’s wall of worry.And speaking of gold’s wall of worry, the sentiment surrounding it is far from being negative.Figure 9 - Source: Investing.comThe above chart shows the sentiment of Investing.com’s members. 64% of them are bullish on gold. As you can see above, there are also other popular markets listed: the S&P 500, Dow Jones, DAX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD Index, and Crude oil. The sentiment for gold is the most bullish of all of them. Yes, the general stock market is climbing to new all-time highs every day now, and yet, people are even more bullish on gold than they are on stocks.When gold slides, the sentiment is likely to get more bearish and particularly high “bearish” readings – say, over 80% would likely indicate a good buying opportunity. Naturally, this is not the only factor that one should be paying attention to.The bottom line? As it stands today, being long the precious metals offers a poor risk-reward proposition. However, in time (perhaps over the next several months), the dynamic will reverse, and the precious metals market will shine once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends And Shifting Capital

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 25.02.2021 03:36
Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength.  The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from increased yield rates. In addition, historically low interest rates have pushed the Real Estate sector, including commodities towards new highs.  We also note Miners and Metals have shown strong support recently as the US Dollar and Bonds continue to collapse.  The way the markets are shifting right now is suggesting that we may be close to a technology peak, similar to the DOT COM peak, where capital rushes away from recently high-flying technology firms into other sectors (such as Banks, Financials, Real Estate, and Energy).The deep dive in Bonds and the US Dollar aligns with the research we conducted near the end of 2020, which suggested a market peak may set up in late February. We also suggested the markets may continue to trade in a sideways (rounded top) type of structure until late March or early April 2021.  Our tools and research help us to make these predictions nearly 4 to 5+ months before the markets attempt to make these moves.  You can read this research here:2021 MAY BE A GOOD YEAR FOR THE CANNABIS/MARIJUANA SECTORPRICE AMPLITUDE ARCS/GANN SUGGEST A MAJOR PEAK IN EARLY APRIL 2021 – PART IIWHAT TO EXPECT IN 2021 PART II – GOLD, SILVER, AND SPYIf our research is correct, we may have started a “capital shift” process in mid-February where declining Bonds, rising yields and the declining US Dollar push traders to re-evaluate continued profit potential in the hottest sectors over the past 6 to 12+ months.  This would mean that Technology, Healthcare, Comm Services and Discretionary sectors may suddenly find themselves on the “not so hot” list soon.Bonds Collapsing While Yields Continue To RiseThe following TLT Weekly chart highlights the extended downward trend taking place in Treasury Bonds.  This downside pricing pressure would usually support a rising stock market and moderately weaker precious metals.  But given the way the US Dollar is also declining, we are seeing fear become more of an issue as the high-flying stock market starts to look quite a bit over valued.  Rising yields also puts Financials and banking/lending near the top of the list for future profit potential.US Dollar Struggling To Find SupportThe Invesco US Dollar ETF, (UUP) Weekly below chart shows how weak the US Dollar has been after the COVID-19 price rotation.  The continued decline in price levels after May 2020 is a very clear indication that the US Dollar is reacting to the continued stimulus efforts as well as the decreased economic expectations.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Combined, the Bonds and US Dollar decline are raising the fear-factor among global investors and causing many to rethink where future growth and profits will originate.  Many are landing on the Financial and Energy sectors right now.Financial Sector Begins To Skyrocket HigherThe following Direxion Financial Bull 3x ETF (FAS) Weekly chart shows the incredible advance in the Financial Sector over the past 6+ months.  Almost like a sleepy rally, Financials have been rallying while traders have been focused on Technology, Healthcare and other sectors that seemed hot.  This shifting trend in sectors, and the associated shifting capital, suggests we may be nearing a tidal shift in sector trends – moving away from Technology and into Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and others.Volatility is still 2x to 3x what we have seen 4 to 5+ years ago.  This suggests any breakdown in trends could prompt a very volatile price correction/transition.  As sectors continue to shift, we urge traders to pay attention to the risks in the markets related to this elevated volatility which seems to be present in every sector. We believe we may be starting an extended “capital shift” process which may last well into March/April 2021 before real opportunities setup possibly in May or June.  The markets will do what they always do, react to traders, capital, and global central bank influence.  There are times when certain sectors enter a euphoric phase and there are times when the global markets revalue risk.  We may be nearing an end to a euphoric phase and starting a revaluation phase. This means many various sectors and symbols will present some very real opportunities for profits over the next few weeks and months.  Marijuana, Cryptos, Metals, Miners, Financials & Real Estate appear to be leading opportunities related to sector trends.  If these trends continue throughout 2021, we may see a revaluation/capital shift to propel these trends higher.Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Learn how the BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups because staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Have a great rest of the week!
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Silver, when everything fits

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.02.2021 10:14
One factor supporting our theory that Silver will find itself in its next leg up is the early release data from “The Silver Survey 2021” (a significant annual report from “The Silver Institute” in conjunction with the research firm “Metals Focus”). Their research suggests a total demand increase to an eight-year high of 1,025 billion ounces of Silver.Suppose you think of ease of covid as a catalyst. In that case, that to one side will provide more supply in the mining industry workers to return to their workplace, the other side of demand easily outweighs through a whole world returning to business as usual.Suppose demand from Solar cells to jewelry, from physical investments to Wall Street traded silver products generally increase. In that case, we find our temporary sideways range breather soon to break out above US$30 to enter the next up leg.Daily Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, Slowly but surely:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 25th, 2021.As you can see on the daily chart, Silver is starting to push higher through its smaller ranges within the range to prepare for a breakout and obeying the trendline (yellow dotted line) as directional support.  Gold/Silver-Ratio, Weekly Chart, The ratio suggests for Silver to catch up:Gold/Silver-Ratio, weekly chart as of February 25th, 2021.Once desperate bears have to give way to Silver’s real value and demand, we most likely see price-advances much more significant than generally assumed.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, And the future is bright, Silver, when everything fits:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 25th, 2021.The last eleven month’s price advances might seem staggering regarding percentage. Especially if you consider that a physical ounce of Silver is currently sold around US$40. Hence, we still see Silver prices reaching three-digit numbers at some point in the next few years. Midterm projections already show Silver prices sitting right above major support from a volume based analysis. And linear regression channel projection points at substantial advances within this year.Silver, when everything fits:We find ourselves in an uptrend in Silver. It just has established its first foundation and has a great range of expansion to offer. Consequently, this results in an excellent risk/reward-ratio for participation. In addition, fundamental long-term data supports the sustainability of that trend. Most importantly a world fiscal policy forces investor into safe havens. Also, the Gold/Silver-Ratio suggests Silver to be the underdog with much ground to catch up. We might see Silver prices in an entirely different echelon in the not too far distant future.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 25th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Why Tech Is Giving Me Jeepers – Watch Out, Gold

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.02.2021 16:08
Powell testimony is over, with markets rejoicing the promise of still accomodative Fed. Value keeps surging over growth, and regardless of yesterday‘s great performance, tech has a vulnerable feel to it – semiconductors lead higher, fine, but communications didn‘t confirm, and the healthcare-biotech dynamic isn‘t painting an outperformance picture either. Real estate isn‘t taking as strong a cue while consumer discretionaries recovery could also be stronger. Thus far though, no need to think about taking losses to optimize your gains elsewhere.Just as I wrote yesterday:(…) the financials benefiting from the greater spread, won‘t save the day, as the key chart to watch now is technology and also healthcare. … The sectoral outlook remains mixed, even as value continues greatly outperforming growth this month. … Long-term Treasuries are starting to hold greater sway over the stock market fate now, too. The dollar‘s woes thus far continue playing out largely in the background.Did gold shake off the TLT shackles? I‘m getting increasing doubts that only a strong move to the upside would dispel. As long-term Treasuries were staging an intraday reversal, gold took an intraday plunge before recovering. Not a good sign of internal intraday strength. Could it be a bullish flag? Still possible, but again, gold would have to rally from here. Doing so would result in a bullish divergence in its daily indicators.The precious metals sectoral dynamics remains positive though – silver and platinum are bullishly consolidating, and as I‘ll show you in today‘s final chart, the many mining indices are doing fine as well. The overly strong reflationary (I would call a spade a spade, and say inflationary) efforts are driving commodities higher in a supercycle just starting out.Not to get complacent, GameStop (GME) squeeze has made a comeback yesterday. Will it coincide with broader stock market woes on par with late Jan? Way too early to say – let‘s jump right into the charts for an objective momentary view instead.Here they are, all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.S&P 500 and Its InternalsStrong S&P 500, everything looks fine on the surface – just as should be, befitting buy the dip mentality. Strong volume, no meaningful intraday setback, so far so good.The equal weight S&P 500 chart is looking better and better day by day. New highs, strong uptrend, broadening leadership. It‘s a mirror reflection of the big names‘ woes, and a testament to value outperforming growth. This bull run is far from making a top.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) had a good day yesterday, and so did the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio. Yet it‘s the daily stock market outperformance that is noticeable here – optimistic sign of an all clear signal. I‘m not taking it totally at face value given tech performance – in a short few days, I can easily become more convinced though.TechnologyStrong daily tech (XLK ETF) upswing, yet only half the prior downside erased so far, and the volume could be higher compared to the preceding downswing. Semiconductors (XSD ETF) are leading again, fine. Yet it‘s the heavyweight names that matter the most to me right now – check out yesterday‘s observations:(…) The tech jury is still out, and this heavyweight sector remains vulnerable, with consequences to the S&P 500 if it doesn‘t keep on the muddle through recovery path at the very least.DollarLook how little the Powell tremors achieved – the dollar bulls are still on the run. Upswings are being sold as the greenback remains on the defensive, targeting much lower lows this year. The technical rebound is over, and not even higher yields can help the greenback much.Gold, Silver and MinersFor a second day in a row, gold‘s performance isn‘t convincing – the willingness to clearly and directionally decouple from rising yields, is being questioned. On the other hand, e.g. the 10-year UST yield is approaching the summer 2019 lows – it‘s at 1.38% now. I‘m looking for the rising rates to slow down and possibly even pull back a little from here over the coming weeks. Or would the market just like to slice through that resistance? Inflation isn‘t universally that strong right now yet I think – just look at the velocity of money.Everything silver related is doing fine, silver miners (SIL ETF) rebounded strongly, First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) and Hecla (HL) are in clearly bullish patterns. The white metal‘s every dip is being bought, the silver-to-gold ratio keeps improving, and even gold juniors (GDXJ) started once again outperforming the seniors (GDX). The bullish signals under the surface keep increadingly more coming to the fore, and the miners to gold ratio‘s ($HUI:$GOLD and GDX:GLD) is the final ingredient missing.SummaryStock bulls did great yesterday, but everything isn‘t fine yet in the tech realm. Due to its sheer weight in the S&P 500 index, pulling the cart a bit more enthusiastically is what the 500-strong index needs to take on new highs, because value stocks can‘t do it all.Gold and silver fared mostly well during the Powell testimony part II, yet gold didn‘t convince me really again. I look for the yellow metal bulls to get tested soon. The wildcard is reaction to the rising Treasury yields as they‘re in a key resistance zone of summer 2019 lows overall (10-year approaching it, and as regards 30-year, it‘s been overcome already). Plunging dollar and short-term gold-dollar correlation moving to positive figures, isn‘t a pleasant sight for coming days.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Gold Declines Despite Powell’s Easy Stance

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.02.2021 18:13
Powell testified before Congress and reiterated the Fed’s dovish stance, but nevertheless, gold continued to slide.On Tuesday, Powell testified before the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. He offered no big surprises, so the markets were little changed. But the price of gold ended that day with a slight loss, as the chart below shows – perhaps just because Powell didn’t surprise, and struck a dovish tone.Anyway, what did the Fed Chair say? In his prepared remarks, Powell acknowledged the improved outlook for later this year . As I noted in the last edition of the Fundamental Gold Report about the recent FOMC minutes , a more optimistic Fed about the U.S. economy is bad news for gold.Additionally, Powell downplayed concerns about the recent rises in the bond yields (see the chart below), calling them “a statement of confidence” for an improving U.S. economic outlook, or “a robust and ultimately complete recovery”. This is also a negative comment for the yellow metal, as it would prefer the Fed reacting more aggressively to the increasing rates, and, for instance, implementing the yield curve control . The higher the yields, the worse it is for gold, which is a non-interest bearing asset.However, Powell also made some dovish comments . First of all, he reiterated that the Fed’s easy stance will last very long – longer than it used to be in the past . This is because the Fed implemented last year a new monetary framework, according to which the U.S. monetary policy will be informed by the assessments of shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rather than by deviations from its maximum level. Moreover, the Fed will seek to achieve inflation that averages two percent over time. These changes imply that the Fed will not tighten monetary policy solely in response to a strong labor market, but only to an increase in inflation . However,But inflation must not merely reach two percent – it should rise moderately above two percent for some time in order to prompt the U.S. central bank to taper the quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate .The second reason why the interest rates will stay lower for longer is that the economy is a long way from the Fed’s employment and inflation goals, and “it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved”. On Wednesday, Powell acknowledged that it may take more than three years to reach these goals. This means that the Fed will treat any possible increases in inflation this year as temporary and will leave interest rates unchanged.Implications for GoldWhat does Powell’s testimony imply for the gold market? Well, gold bulls may be disappointed as the Fed Chair didn’t sound too dovish . He neither announced an expansion in the quantitative easing, nor the yield curve control, nor negative interest rates , nor a “whatever it takes” approach. And it seems that the yellow metal needs such things right now in order to survive – just like fish need water.However, the rising bond yields could become a problem at one point for the Fed. If they continue to rise, Uncle Sam will not be happy, and the Fed will have to step into the market to buy government bonds. The central bank and Treasury are good old friends and the close relationship between Powell and Yellen may only strengthen this beautiful friendship – and support gold prices.Moreover, the increasing bond yields (despite an ultra-dovish Fed) imply that reflation trade is strong. So far, investors just expect a return of inflation to a moderate level, but given the enormous surge in the broad money supply (see the chart below) and Biden’s mammoth fiscal plan, the risk of overheating is non-negligible.It would be really strange if such an aggressive monetary expansion wouldn’t affect the prices. As one can see, the growth in the M2 money supply is 2.5 times faster than during the Great Recession . Actually, we are already seeing inflation – but in the asset markets, not the CPI . The stock and house prices are surging. The commodity sector has also already been gaining and gold may follow suit .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Dead Cat Bounce? Bears Aren‘t Taking Prisoners Now

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.02.2021 15:30
Right from the open, stocks have been losing altitude yesterday, and value couldn‘t indeed overpower the tech slide. Long-dated Treasuries had a climactic day of incomplete reversal on outrageous volume. Regardless of the evidence of asset price inflation, there is almost universal short-term vulnerability, and yesterday‘s broad based selling spanning precious metals and commodities, confirms that. The dollar has been missing from the party though, only having reversed prior losses to close little changed on the day.Are we seeing a trend change, or a time-limited yet powerful push lower? That depends upon the asset – in stocks, I look for the tech big names and healthcare to do worse than value (the VTV:QQQ ratio jumped up greatly through the week, portending the tech issues). Both silver and gold would be under pressure, and I look for the white metal to be mostly doing better overall. Oil and copper would take a breather while remaining in bull markets.That roughly matches my very short-term idea for where the markets would trade, echoing the expressed, tweeted need to watch oil and copper turn the corner still yesterday (copper didn‘t, not confirming any intraday turnaround notions as valid) – the below being written 7hrs before the U.S. open:(…) As yesterday's session moved to a close, the dollar erased opening losses, and went neutral. TLT's massive volume shows that yields are likely to stabilize here for now, and even decline a bit – HYG absolutely didn't convince me. The oil-copper tandem didn't kick in yesterday. Right now, we're in a weak constellation with both silver, oil, and stocks down. Copper's modest uptick doesn't cut it. So, the outlook for the European session on Fri is more bearish than bullish for stocks really, and gold rather sideways in the coming hours. Would we get a bounce during the U.S. session? It‘s possible to the point of likely. The damage done yesterday though looks to have more than a few brief sessions to run to repair. If you were to be hiding in the not too greatly performing S&P 500 sectors before the uptrend reasserts itself, you would be rather fine. The same for commodities and metals which were solidly trending higher before – oil, platinum, copper. E.g. look at yesterday‘s low platinum volume, or at the modest Freeport McMoRan decline – these charts are not broken while I see silver relegated to sideways trading (with a need to defend against the bears sternly) and silver miners taking their time.Just as I wrote yesterday, technology is the most precarious spot as long-term rates are turning and the dollar hasn‘t moved yet. Should it start coming to life (it did yesterday as the 10-year yield retreated from 1.60% back below 1.50%), overcoming the 91 – 91.5 resistance zone, that would help put into perspective the concerted selling we saw yesterday, especially if it continues in future days in similar fashion.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsThe Force Index shows that the bears have the upper edge now, and volume coupled with price action, shows no accumulation yet. The chart is worrying for it could reach the Jan lows fast if the sellers get more determined.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) reveal the damage suffered, underlined by the strong volume. High yields in TLT and LQD are starting to have an effect on stocks.Another stressed bond market chart – long-term Treasuries show a budding reversal to the upside. Given yesterday‘s happenings in the 10-year bond auction with the subsequent retreat from high yields since, and the dollar moving over 90.50 as we speak, the signs are in place for the TLT retracing part of the steep slide as well.TechnologyThe momentum in tech (XLK ETF) is with the bears as the 50-day moving average got easily pierced yesterday again. It‘s still the heavyweights that matter (roughly similar to the healthcare situation here), and the sector remains very vulnerable to further downside.VolatilityThe volatility index rose, but is far below the two serious autumn 2020 and the late Jan 2021 corrections. It even retreated on the day, regardless of the heavy S&P 500 selling. Neither the options traders are taking yesterday‘s move as a true game changer, even though it was (for the bond markets). Would the anticipated stock indices rebound today bring it down really substantially, spilling over into commodities too, and show that this indeed wasn‘t a turning point? Gold, Silver and MinersGold didn‘t rise in spite of the falling long-term Treasuries for too long, as Tue and Wed hesitation (which I view with suspicion on both days) was resolved with a strong decline. This time, I am not calling for the yellow metal to rise the way I did a week ago. It‘s that the many precious metals market signals have become less constructive too. Silver is being taken down a notch or two, and the miners are already reflecting that in yesterday‘s close. Silver miners steeply declining, the bullish outperformance of gold juniors vs. gold seniors was lost yesterday. Given the red ink on Thursday already in copper, and its arrival into oil today, the bears are having the short-term (more than several sessions) upper hand. The miners to gold ratio ($HUI:$GOLD and GDX:GLD) as the final ingredient missing, can keep on waiting.SummaryStock bulls got a harsh reality check, and everything isn‘t very fine yet in the tech arena. By the shape of things thus far, today‘s rebound is more likely than not to turn out a dead cat bounce, and more short-term downside remains likely since Monday, regardless of all the value stocks performance.Gold and silver didn‘t escape the bloodbath either, and aren‘t out of the woods – neither gold, nor silver. Treasury yields are taking a good look around, having a chance to stabilize and retreat to a degree, but gold appears unfazed thus far, and the commodities‘ dynamics doesn‘t bode well. On the other hand, the dollar looks getting ready to move higher over the coming days, and thanks to the short-term correlation between the two turning positive, that would help the embattled yellow metal down the road.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Will There Be Roaring Twenties for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.02.2021 16:59
The 2020s might be less roaring than the 1920s, which seems like good news for gold.The United States is strongly polarized, with blue versus red, liberals versus conservatives, and so on. People are divided along many lines, but the biggest division line is between those who count decades from 0 to 9 and those who count them from 1 to 10. It is intuitive for many people to adopt the first method, especially that we think of decades as ‘the 20s’, ‘the 30s’, and so on. However, the catch is that there was no Year Zero, so the first decade of the common era was years 1 to 10. Following this logic, the current decade started on January 1, 2021, not January 1, 2020.So, I feel fully entitled to investigate how gold will behave in the new decade. The issue is especially interesting as some analysts claim that we are entering the Roaring Twenties 2.0. Are they correct?On the surface, there are some similarities. The 1920s were a decade that followed the nightmare of World War I and the Spanish Flu pandemic . It was a time of quick economic growth (the U.S. GDP grew more than 40 percent in that period) and rapid technological innovation fueled predominantly by the rising access to electricity and big improvements in transportation (automobiles and planes).Fast forward one century and we land in the 2020s, which is a decade following the nightmare of the coronavirus pandemic . There are hopes for an acceleration in technological progress driven mainly by the rising scope of remote work, digital solutions, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 5G networks, robotization, super-batteries, electric vehicles, and so on. And given the pent-up demand and months spent in lockdowns, consumers are ready to congregate and spend!However, there are good reasons to be skeptical about the narrative of the Roaring Twenties 2.0 . The era of post-war prosperity was fueled by the return to the normalcy in the sphere of economic policy. I refer here to the fact that after WWI, there was a successful transition from a wartime economy to a peacetime economy. In contrast, in the aftermath of the Great Recession , there is a gradual transition from the peacetime economy to a wartime economy, that was only accelerated during the epidemic and the Great Lockdown .In particular, both the government spending and the fiscal deficits were sharply reduced in the post-war era. In consequence, the U.S. public debt declined, especially in real terms. Similarly, the Fed reversed its monetary policy and allowed for monetary contraction (and quick recession) in 1919-20 to reverse wartime inflation .In other words, the tighter monetary and fiscal policies led to an environment of economic prosperity. Also helpful for the U.S. were developments such as trustbusting and an economic recovery in Germany after its hyperinflation – all developments that will not replay in the 2020s.In contrast, neither the fiscal policy nor the monetary policy are going to normalize anytime soon , even if the COVID-19 pandemic is brought under control. The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion under Trump’s presidency – a level that rivals Italy’s. The debt-to-GDP ratio has soared, as the chart below shows. And Joe Biden doesn’t worry about deficits – instead, with his plan of $1.9 trillion economic stimulus, he is going to balloon the public debt even further by increasing government spending.But maybe we shouldn’t worry about the debt? After all, after WW2, the public debt was even higher, but the economy didn’t collapse – actually, it grew so rapidly that the debt-to-GDP ratio diminished significantly. Yup, that’s correct, but after the pandemic, the economy will not recover as quickly as in the aftermath of WW2. Oh, and by the way, the economy grew its way out of debt only thanks to several years of high inflation .Therefore, the current complacency and naïve belief in low- interest rates and debt-driven economic recovery makes the scenario of the Roaring Twenties 2.0 not very likely, despite all the fantastic technological progress we are observing. So, instead of acceleration, we could rather observe an economic slowdown due to the poor economic policy that hampers the expansion of the private sector. Indeed, the recent report by the World Bank warns about the lost decade: “If history is any guide, unless there are substantial and effective reforms, the global economy is heading for a decade of disappointing growth outcomes.” This is good news for the gold market.But even if the Roaring Twenties 2.0 do happen, it wouldn’t have to be very bad for the yellow metal. It’s true that the 1920s was a period of wealth, prosperity, and decadence in which people didn’t think about preserving capital and investing in safe-haven assets such as gold . In contrast, there was a lot of risk-taking fueling the boom in the stock market. However, the Roaring Twenties were an inflationary period of debt-driven growth that ended in the systemic economic crisis called the Great Depression – and gold can shine in such an macroeconomic environment .Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold – Final Sell-Off

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.02.2021 14:37
Precious metal and crypto analysis exclusively for Celtic Gold on 27.02.2021Gold has been in a long and tenacious correction for nearly seven months already. On Friday the gold-market shocked traders and investors with yet another bloodbath similar to the one seen end of November last year. However, this capitulation probably means: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!ReviewThe price for one troy ounce of gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020 and has been in a tough correction since then. After a first major interim low on November 30th at around US$1,764, gold posted a rapid yet deceptive recovery up to US$1.959. Since that high point on January 6th, the bears have taken back control.Obviously, the two sharp sell-offs on January 6th and January 8th had demoralized the bulls in such a strong way that they have not been able to get back on their feet since then. And although the bullish forces were still strong enough to create a volatile sideways period in January, since early February the bears were able to slowly but surely push prices lower.Just yesterday day gold finally broke below its support zone around US$1,760 to 1,770, unleashing another wave of severe selling into the weekly close. Now after seven month of correction, spot gold prices have reached a new low at US$1,717.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 18th 2021On the other hand, the relative strength of silver remains strikingly positive. In this highly difficult market environment for precious metals, silver was able to trade sideways to up since the start of the new year. The same can be said of platinum prices.Overall, the turnaround in the precious metals sector has not yet taken place but seems to be extremely close. Since the nerves of market participants were significantly tested either with a tough and tenacious volatile sideways stretch torture or with sharp price drops like yesterday, most weak hands should have been discouraged and shaken off by now. At the same time, however, the sector has become pretty oversold and finally shows encouraging signs of being a great contrarian opportunity again.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart gold lost the support of the middle trend line with the large uptrend channel in January. With a weekly close at US$1,734 the bears are clearly in control. However, Friday lows around US$1,725 hit pretty much exactly the long standing 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the whole wave up from US$1,160 to US$2,075. Hence, gold is meeting strong support right here around US$1,715 to US$1,730. Looking at the oversold weekly stochastic oscillator the chances for a bounce and an important turning point are pretty high. Hence, the end of this seven-month correction could be very near.However, only a clear breakout above the downtrend channel in red would confirm the end of this multi-month correction. Obviously, the bulls have a lot of work to do to just push prices back above US$1,850. If the Fibonacci retracement around US$1,725 cannot stopp the current wave of selling, then expect further downside towards the upper edge of the original rather flat uptrend channel in blue at around US$1,660. The ongoing final sell-off can easily extend a few more days but does not have to.In total, the weekly chart is still clearly in a confirmed downtrend. Prices have reached strong support at around US$1,725 and at least a good bounce is extremely likely from here. However, given the oversold setup including the sell-off on Friday there are good chances that the correction in gold is about to end in the coming week and that a new uptrend will emerge.Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of February 27th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the price of gold has been sliding into a final phase of capitulation since losing contact with its 200-MA (US$1,858). Not only predominating red daily candles but also lots of downtrend-lines and resistance zones are immersing this chart into a sea of red. That itself should awake the contrarian in any trader and investor. However, it is certainly not (yet) the time to play the bullish hero here as catching a falling knife is always a highly tricky art. But at least, the daily stochastic oscillator is about to reach oversold levels. Momentum remains bearish for now of course.Overall, the daily chart is bearish. Last weeks sell-off however might be overdone and has to be seen in conjunction with the physical deliveries for February futures at the Comex. However, a final low and a trend change can only be confirmed once gold has recaptured its 200-MA. This line is currently far away, and it will likely take weeks until gold can meet this moving average again. Further downside can not be excluded but it should be rather shallow.Commitments of Traders for Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Commitments of Traders for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: CoT Price ChartsSince the beginning of the year, commercial traders have reduced their cumulative net short position in the gold futures market by more than 21% while gold prices corrected from US$1,965 down to US$1,770.Commitments of Traders for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the long-term comparison, however, the current net short position is still extremely high and does actually signal a further need for correction. However, this situation has been ongoing since mid of 2019. Since then, commercial traders have not been able to push gold prices significantly lower to cover their massive short positions.We can assume that since the emergence of the “repro crisis” in the USA in late summer 2019, the massive manipulation via non-physical paper ounces no longer works as it did in the previous 40 years. The supply and demand shock caused by the Corona crisis in March 2020 has certainly exacerbated this situation. In this respect, COMEX has lost its mid- to long-term weight and influence on pricing. This doesn’t mean however, that short-term sell-offs like yesterday won’t happen anymore.Nevertheless, the CoT report on its own continues to deliver a clear sell signal, similar to the last one and a half years already.Sentiment: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Sentiment Optix for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: Sentiment traderThe weak price performance in recent weeks has caused an increasingly pessimistic mood among participants in the gold market. The Optix sentiment indicator for gold is now below its lows from November 30th. In a bull market, however, these rather pessimistic readings are rare and usually short-lived. In this respect, even the currently not extreme negative sentiment could well be sufficient for a sustainable ground and turnaround.Overall, the current sentiment analysis signals an increasingly optimistic opportunity for contrarian investors. The chances for a final low after seven months of correction are relatively good in the short term already.Seasonality: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Seasonality for Gold as of February 22nd, 2021. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal point of view, the development in the gold market in recent weeks is in stark contrast to the pattern established over the last 52 years. Thus, a strong start to the year could have been expected well into February. Instead, gold fell sharply from US$ 1.959 down to US$1.717 so far.If one pushes the statistically proven seasonal high point from the end of February to the beginning of January, a grinding sideways to lower phase including interim recoveries as well as recurring pullbacks is still to be expected until April. The beginning of the next sustainable uptrend could therefore theoretically be estimated approximately starting in May. Of course, these are all just abstract seasonal mind games.In any case, statistically speaking, the seasonality for gold in spring is not very supportive for about four months. In this respect, the seasonal component continues to call for patience. At the latest in early summer however, gold should be able to trend higher again. The best seasonal phase typically starts at the beginning of July and lasts until the beginning of October.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of February 22nd, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith prices of US$47,500 for one Bitcoin and US$1,734 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently sitting at 27.39. That means you have to pay more than 27 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. In other words, an ounce of gold currently only costs 0.036 Bitcoin. Bitcoin has thus mercilessly outperformed gold in the past few months. We had repeatedly warned against this development since early summer 2020!© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 17th, 2021Generally, you should be invested in both: precious metals and bitcoin. Buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in these two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals (preferably physically), while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin, one should hold at least 1% to 5%. Paul Tudor Jones holds a little less than 2% of his assets in Bitcoin. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate higher percentages to Bitcoin and maybe other Altcoins on an individual basis. For the average investor, who usually is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is already a lot!“Opposites complement. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin (BTC-USD) you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven in the 21st century. You want to own both!”– Florian GrummesMacro update and conclusion: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 19th, 2021.In the big picture, the “confetti party” continues. As usual, the Fed’s balance sheet total rose to a new all-time high of US$7,557 billion. The increase in assets again concentrated almost entirely in the securities holdings. The Fed balance sheet total now corresponds to 35% of the US GDP.© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 17th, 2021In the eurozone, the unprecedented currency creation continues as well. Here, the ECB’s balance sheet climbed to 7,079 billion EUR reaching a new all-time high. The ECB balance sheet now represents 71% of the euro-zone GDP.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 12th, 2021.But the Chinese are doing it the most blatantly. Here, the money supply has increased by US$5.4 trillion since March 2020!© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 15th 2021.As repeatedly written at this point, the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheets has far-reaching consequences. The GSCI raw materials index has risen significantly in the past 11 months. Accordingly, inflation expectations are also rising more and more and still have a lot to catch up.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 20th 2021.Wood prices in the USA provide a good example of the rapidly rising commodity prices. Lumber saw the fastest increase since 1974 and has risen by more than 35% since the beginning of the year. During the same period, gasoline increased by 20%, natural gas by 26%, agricultural raw materials are around 25% more expensive and base metals jumped over 20% higher! Hence, inflation is coming, and central bankers won’t be able to stop it.While silver and platinum have been anticipating this “trend” for weeks and have been holding up much better than gold, the precious metal sector is still in its correction phase. This correction began after a steep two-year rally in last August and can be classified as perfectly normal and healthy until now.© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 18th, 2021.After seven months and a price drop of nearly US$360, the worst for gold is likely over. In view of the recent slight increase in real US yields (currently -0.92%) the pullback over the last few weeks can be justified. Yet, it is important to focus on the bigger picture. This is where the international devaluation race to the bottom continues unabated and will sooner or later lead to significantly higher gold prices too.Technically, Friday’s sell off might have marked the final low for this ongoing correction. As well, the slide could continue for a few more days, but the remaining risk to the downside seems rather shallow. In the worst-case Gold might drop to US$1,650 to US$1,680.To conclude, this means for Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here! The Bottom may arrive soon within the next week or has already been seen on Friday.Source: www.celticgold.euFeel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin/gold-ratio, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold correction, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, Silver, The bottom is in|0 CommentsFlorian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.euAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
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Worst for Stocks Over?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.03.2021 15:39
Is the worst of what the last few weeks brought over? February started off with so much promise, only to be ruined by surging bond yields.The way that bond yields have popped has weighed heavily on growth stocks. Outside of seeing a minor comeback on Friday (Feb. 26), the Nasdaq dropped almost 7% between February 12 and Friday’s (Feb. 26) close.Other indices didn’t fare much better either.The spike bond yields, however, in my view, are nothing more than a catalyst for stocks to cool off and an indicator of some medium to long-term concerns. But calling them a structural threat is a bit of an overstatement.Rising bond yields are a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bond investors see the economy reopening and heating up. On the other hand, with the Fed expected to let the GDP heat up without hiking rates, inflation may return.I don’t care what Chairman Powell says about inflation targets this and that. He can’t expect to keep rates this low, buy bonds, permit money to be printed without a care, and have the economy not overheat.He may not have a choice but to hike rates sooner than expected. If not this year, then in 2022. I no longer buy all that talk about keeping rates at 0% through 2023. It just can’t happen if bond yields keep popping like this.So was the second half of February the start of the correction that I’ve been calling for? Or is this “downturn” already over?Time will tell. While I still do not foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of this month could happen.Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in almost a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.Pay attention to several things this week. The PMI composite, jobs data, and consumer credit levels will be announced this week.We have more earnings on tap this week too. Monday (March 1), we have Nio (NIO) and Zoom (ZM), Tuesday (March 2) we have Target (TGT) and Sea Limited (SE), Wednesday (March 3), we have Okta (OKTA) and Snowflake (SNOW), and Thursday (March 3) we haveBroadcom (AVGO).My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:The downturn we experienced to close out February could be the start of a short-term correction- or it may be a brief slowdown. A further downturn by the end of the month is very possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- a Buyable Slowdown?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe Nasdaq’s downturn was so overdue. Even though more pain could be on the horizon, I like the Nasdaq at this level for some buying opportunities.If more losses come and the tech-heavy index dips below support at 13000, then it could be an even better buying opportunity. It can’t hurt to start nibbling now, though. If you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.Plus, if Cathie Wood, the guru of the ARK ETFs that have continuously outperformed, did a lot of buying the last two weeks, it’s safe to say she knows a thing or two about tech stocks and when to initiate positions. Bloomberg News ’ editor-in-chief emeritus Matthew A. Winkler wouldn’t have just named anyone the best stock picker of 2020.Before February 12, I would always discuss the Nasdaq’s RSI and recommend watching out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted almost 7% since February 12 and is closer to oversold than overbought. !While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony last week (even if I don’t totally buy into it). Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after its recent slowdown, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . Its RSI is now around 40.I follow the RSI for the Nasdaq religiously because the index is merely trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded an overbought 70 RSI, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is almost at its support level of 13000, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now.I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Bitcoin on the move

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.03.2021 11:00
Our optimism for further advances is principle-based. The following analysis shows why we perceive a continuation in price advances with low-risk entry possibilities.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, A healthy breath:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of March 1st, 2021.A glance at the monthly chart above shows that as much as the trend is steep, it is in good health. The upper wicks on the monthly candles indicate a healthy breath. What expands must retrace. And Bitcoin does just that. It has strong pushes upwards but then gives profits partially back. It takes a deep breath up to be followed by harmonious breathing out. We see no indication from the most critical larger time frame why Bitcoin prices could not continue to advance soon, even to surpass their all-time highs within the next months. There is no blow-off volume plotted nor irregular fractal volume distribution of supply and demand zones. There are no warning signals of ill health. This athlete is fit for a marathon. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Most likely:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2021.All trading instruments have their probabilistic personality. Bitcoin is volatile and has typically larger retracements in size. These personalities provide for a good mathematical guideline of what is most likely to happen. Of course, they can also change over time).A closer look at the weekly chart above shows prices to sit right below a distribution zone indicated by a volume analysis showing resistance overhead at US$47,396. Bitcoin most likely gets pushed one more time to lower price levels before advancing. Therefore, we are buying into the market within a range center at prices of US$37,630 (+/-1k).BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Bitcoin on the move:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 1st, 2021.We see three possible scenarios. The daily chart shows in their most likely probability scenario: number one likely, scenario two the second likely, and scenario three the least likely. One should participate in all three events with entries and use our quad exit strategy to protect these events from costing any money. Instead, irrespective of their longer outcome, provide for at least a small profit.Bitcoin on the move:With larger time frames in mind, technical analysis isn’t the only factor pointing towards higher prices. The sustainability of Bitcoin and demand for this technology are more and more transparent. Some argue that Bitcoin’s anonymity creates crime. We find the true principle there to be an aspect of criminal behavior within humanity. Cash is used for some unlawful transactions. That doesn’t render cash transactions inherently to be illegal. In a world where excessive data eradicates privacy, one needs to be asking if the need for a payment system that allows for some of that privacy isn’t something necessary. That is to say protection of human potential that is born out of personal privacy.Less philosophical, there is a need for wealth preservation right now. Worldwide monetary policy eradicates the value of fiat currency fast. For the short term, we find there to be a threat of further value dilution. Upcoming stimulus package payments require money printing again. For the midterm, we see the first signs of a different attitude towards the risk of the printing machine between European countries and the US. Ill-gotten behavior has an extended shelf life when the whole world dances the same waltz. Once opinions diverge, resulting in various diverging actions, the house of cards is tumbling fast. In this case, while Bitcoin might be dropping temporarily and take one of its deeper breathing out phases, it will be the first that takes an inhale on a level astounding even its fans.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller| March 1st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

What Correction in Stocks? And Gold?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.03.2021 16:30
Stocks thoroughly rebounded yesterday, and corporate credit markets did even better. These are optimistic signs as the shape of the correction has been decided – again, as shallow, less than 5% one. Long-termTreasuries are no longer in a free fall, volalility has retreated back to the low 20s, and the put/call ratio swung back towards the bottom of its recent range.Technology has rebounded as well, and the microrotations in the stock market keep being the haollmark of stock bull‘s health, and the risk-on (high beta) sectors and segments such as financials, semiconductors, or capex (capital expenditure such as construction and engineering) - and airlines are catching breath too.Such was the sectoral themes likely to do well that I mentioned yesterday:(…) That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).In such an environment, the defensives with low volatility and good earnings are getting left behind, as it‘s the top earners in growth, and very risk-on cyclicals that do best. They would be taking the baton from each other, as (micro)rotations mark the stock market bull health – and once tech big names join again, new highs would arrive. Then, the $1.9T stimulus has made it past the House, involves nice stimulus checks, and speculation about an upcoming infrastructure bill remains. Coupled with the avalanche of new Fed money, this is going into the real economy, not sitting on banks‘ balance sheets – and now, the banks will have more incentive to lend out. Margin debt isn‘t contracting, but global liquidity hasn‘t gone pretty much anywhere in February. Coupled with the short-term dollar moves, this is hurting emerging markets more than the U.S. - and based on the global liquidity metrics alone, the S&P 500 is oversold right now – that‘s without the stimulus package. It‘s my view that we‘re experiencing ... not a reversal of fortunes. … this remains one of the dips to be bought in my view.All right, we‘re seeing a rebound in progress, on the way to new highs – but what about the embattled gold? Its seasonality component was „slated“ to help the bulls in Feb, and the king of metals instead succumbed to nominal yields pressure. Would the Mar historically negative slant be likewise invalidated – and again precisely for the reason called long-dated Treasuries?Regardless of the immensely positive fundamentals behind the precious metals (including real rates, the true determinant, little changed and at -1%), it has thus far been commodities and Bitcoin who rose and held on to their gains since the 2H 2020. Please remember the big picture chart about commodities and precious metals taking turns in rising that I presented on Feb 17. The bullish case for gold (let alone silver) isn‘t lost – merely thoroughly questioned these weeks of sordid $HUI:$GOLD underperformance.Are we seeing signs of decreasing financial asset price inflation – or an accelerating one? It‘s the inflation and inflation expectations that are weighed against the nominal rates trajectory. As the rate of inflation accelerates, rising nominal rates would bite the yellow metal less – and there is no denying that the risk of inflation is running as high as can be.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookSo far, so (very) good in stocks – volume is lagging but the Force index still flipped positive, indication that at worst, we‘re likely to muddle through in a sideways to higher trading pattern over the nearest days.Credit MarketsAfter a worrying move on Friday, high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) are once again assuming leadership, and I see this chart as the one with more bullish implications for the coming days than the S&P 500 alone. That‘s the dynamic I am looking for in a good run.Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated ones (LQD:IEI) – are looking to get back in closer sync than has been the case in 2021 thus far. It would take time, but would prove that the stock market can still keep on rising when faced with even higher nominal rates than we saw thus far.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) clearly reversed, and while the volume isn‘t convincing on a standalone basis, coupled with semiconductors (XSD ETF) and other value stocks performance, it‘s encouraging enough to treat any significant correction calls heard elsewhere, as again plain wrong and premature, for the full picture view didn‘t support such calls in the first place, and you know what is being said about every broken clock being right twice a day…Having said so, let‘s turn to precious metals, which offered more than a few bullish signs way earlier in Feb. Based on the evolving charts and gold‘s failure to gain credible traction, I was at least able to time most of the downside before it happened – such as last week. Still, there has been little bullish that could be said about the PMs complex, as encouraging signs emerged only to be gone shortly. So, where do we stand at the moment?Gold and Copper to Oil RatioRising TLT rates are turning a corner, but the yellow metal is staying at the strong volume profile support zone that marks the April-May consolidation zone. Earlier today, gold cut all the way to its lower end (that‘s low $1,700s) before rebounding. The danger zone hasn‘t been cleared in the least yet, but the signs of silver reversing once again from a double test of $26, is as encouraging as copper rising again, and oil not tanking.The copper to oil ratio whose long-term perspective I featured yesterday, is making a clear turn on the daily chart. Coupled with the TLT stabilization, and the dollar trading with relatively little correlation to gold these days, the table is set for a short-term rebound in the metals. How far would these take the sector? The numerous bears would have you believe that not too far & that another downleg to ridiculously low values is at hand, but I am not convinced and prefer reading the tape instead. Yes, even in the mostly bearish PMs chart setups where nothing bullish has stuck for longer than several day over the past weeks. I repeat that the $1.9T stimulus bill (and infrastructure bill, even slavery reparations if we get that far really) hasn‘t been truly factored in by the markets – and yesterday‘s S&P 500 action proves that.Silver and MinersSilver keeps consolidating in a bullish pattern well above $26 still (not that it would be the line in the sand though), and when the silver miners (SIL ETF) start leading again, a new silver upleg would be born. For now, these are still mirroring the weak gold miners‘ performance, which is free from bullish signals for the yellow metal still. The gold sector isn‘t yet ready to run, plain and simple.SummaryStock bulls are on a solid recovery path, and new all time highs are again closer in sight. Crucially, the corporate credit markets and S&P 500 sectoral performance confirm, and once emerging markets join (the dollar weakens again), more fuel to the rally would be available.Gold remains precariously perched, yet isn‘t breaking down – the bull run off last spring‘s consolidation remains intact – regardless of the short-term gloom and doom. I see the metals as likely to recover next as the Treasury yields stop biting. Restating the obvious, gold is far from out of the woods.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

So, Where Is the Corrective Upswing?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2021 15:07
Can the precious metals move lower before a short-term correction, and after correcting, will they continue their medium-term downtrend?Gold & silver reversed yesterday (Mar. 2) and the GDX rallied after bottoming right in my previous target area, but it’s still unclear if the bottom is in.Let’s check what’s happening in the charts.Figure 1 – COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)In short, gold reversed yesterday after touching the upper border or my target area. Can the temporary bottom be in? Yes. Is it likely to be in? Not necessarily. Most likely it’s not in yet, because gold still hasn’t moved to its strong support levels.The size of the first part of the move sometimes tends to be identical or near-identical to the size of the final move. The size of the initial, August decline was almost just like the November decline. Now, copying the January 2021 decline to the current situation (blue, dashed lines), provides us with the target at about $1,675.The above price area coincides with the previous 2020 lows, and it’s also slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2020 upswing. Gold would be likely to at least reach this retracement before forming the temporary bottom.Consequently, it would not be surprising to see gold suffering another ~$50 decline before finding a short-term bottom. More importantly though, if the initial move lower coincides with an S&P 500 correction, it would be likely to push mining stocks and silver lower in a more visible way.On the bullish front, the shape of yesterday’s candlestick does indeed look like an intraday reversal. And we saw the same kind of intraday reversal in silver.Figure 2 – COMEX Silver FuturesThe fact that silver’s triangle-vertex-based reversal is approximately today / was approximately yesterday (it’s unclear) further validates the scenario, in which precious metals move higher in the short term.I previously wrote that silver is likely to catch up with the decline at its later stage, while miners are likely to lead the way. That’s exactly what we’ve been seeing in the last few months. Silver is still likely to catch up with the declines when silver investors panic – just as they tend to do close to the end of given price moves (selling close to the bottom and buying close to the top). So far, miners remain the asset of choice for trading, but sometime during the next downswing, we might move to silver in order to magnify gains from both declines. As a reminder, please consider what happened on March 13 and March 16, 2020 and consider that the GDX ETF bottomed (in terms of the daily closing prices) on March 13. That was when silver was only in the middle of its decline.Speaking of mining stocks, let’s take a look at the GDX ETF chart.Figure 3 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)The GDX moved higher shortly after we successfully exited our short positions, relatively close to the bottom. But is this rally about to take miners much higher before they turn south once again? It’s unclear at this time.It could be the case that we see an immediate move lower once again as gold declines to $1,675 or so, but it could also be the case that miners correct to $33 - $34 now, and then move to new lows later.All in all, it seems that we are already seeing the corrective upswing, or one is about to start after another very short-term downswing. Once this corrective upswing is over, the downtrend is likely to resume.Why would this be the case? There are myriads of reasons and I’m going over most of them each week in my flagship Gold & Silver Trading Alerts , but to name just a few, it’s gold’s invalidation of the breakout above its 2011 high, despite having an extremely positive fundamental picture, gold’s weak performance relative to the USD Index, miners’ relatively weak performance compared to gold, and the medium-term breakout in the USDX.And speaking of the USD Index, let’s take a look at its chart.Figure 4While the medium-term breakout continues to be the most important technical development visible on the above chart (with important bullish implications for the following months), there is one factor that could make the USD Index decline on a temporary basis.This factor is the similarity to the mid-2020 price pattern. I previously commented on the head and shoulders pattern that had formed (necklines are marked with dashed lines), but that I didn’t trust. Indeed, this formation was invalidated, but a bigger pattern, of which this formation was part, wasn’t invalidated.The patterns start with a broad bottom and an initial rally. Then it turns out that the initial rally is the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern that is then completed and invalidated. This is followed by a sharp rally, and then a reversal with a sizable daily decline.So far, the situations are similar.Last year, this pattern was followed by a decline to new lows. Now, based on the breakout above the rising medium-term support line, such a bearish outcome doesn’t seem likely, but we might see the pattern continue for several more days, before they disconnect. After all, this time, the USD Index is likely to really rally – similarly to how it soared in 2018 – and not move to new lows.What happens before the patterns disconnect? The USD Index could decline temporarily.This means that the temporary bottom in the precious metals and miners could have already formed, but it’s far from being crystal-clear.All in all, markets tend to reverse only after reaching important support or resistance levels, which means that PMs and miners might still move lower before their short-term corrective upswing, but it could also be the case that the latter is already underway. Depending on how many confirmations we get of the bullish outlook, it might or might not be a good idea to enter temporary long positions here. After all, the medium-term downtrend started in August 2020 and it remains intact – thus, quick long positions are against the trend and thus riskier.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Weak Jobs Data, Stocks and Gold

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.03.2021 16:19
Stocks gave up some of Monday‘s strong gains, but I find it little concerning in the sub-3,900 pre-breakout meandering. It‘s about time, and a play on the tech sector to participate meaningfully in the coming rally (or at least not to stand in the way again). Talking obstacles, what about today‘s non-farm employment change, before the really key Fri‘s release? A bad number makes it less likely for market participants to bet on the Fed raising rates soon – but frankly, I don‘t understand where this hawkish sentiment is coming from, now when we‘re not at even talking taper. Raising rates in the current shape of the recovery, where we have commodities and financial asset prices rising, and that‘s about it? No, the current economic recovery isn‘t strong enough to entertain that thought. The need for stimulus asap is obvious. Thus, prior trends in the commodities and currency arenas are likely to continue, and not even the current long-term Treasuries stabilization can prevent the greenback from falling more than temporarily.Just as I wrote yesterday about stocks:(…) All right, we‘re seeing a rebound in progress, on the way to new highs.Gold scored modest gains yesterday, but these aren‘t enough to flip its short-term outlook bullish. Yes, it‘s sitting within the strong support zone (with another one over $40 further lower), and it isn‘t breaking down. It could actually stage a rebound precisely off this support zone next, as sharp rallies are born during the opposite sentiment clearly prevailing, which is what we have in gold now.Silver remains relatively solid, and commodities aren‘t breaking down. We have a month historically strong for copper, and I talked both yesterday and Monday what that means for the copper to oil ratio – and its relationship to gold, given the very accomodative monetary policy without real end in sight. This is then checked against nominal rates matching up against inflation, inflation expectations.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsYesterday‘s downswing didn‘t attract much volume, making it a short-term hesitation That‘s the meandering, the search for direction just below the 3,900 mark that I had been tweeting about yesterday. If you look at the equal weighted S&P 500 chart (RSP ETF), it‘s clear that new highs are still a little off given the sectoral balance of power.The market breadth indicators reflect the daily indecisiveness fittingly. While not worrying in themselves, they‘re showing that Monday‘s session wasn‘t the beginning of an endless bullish streak. Rather, it‘s just a part of the bullish turn that would over time prevail more convincingly.Credit MarketsThe key leading credit market ratio – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) – is slightly leaning bullish here. And that‘s good given the talk of bubble bursting, significant correction just ahead (started) – that‘s what I am looking for in uncertain times. Ideally though, such a bond market leadership should last a bit longer than one day, to lend it more credibility.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) once again reversed to the downside, or so the chart says. While high, the volume isn‘t trustworthy – it doesn‘t stand comparison to the visually similar early Sep pattern, which was followed by a break to new lows in the latter half of the month. Then, as the overlaid S&P 500 (black line) shows, high beta pockets and value sectors have assumed leadership, powering the S&P 500 advance.DollarThe USD index is keeping close to the 91 mark, and yesterday‘s candle reveals that the potential upside isn‘t probably all that great. This is consistent with the dollar being in a bear market, sliding to new lows in 2021 with likelihood bordering on certainty. Plain and simple, it‘ll be on the defensive regardless of where long-term rates go.Gold and SilverGold had a good chance to rebound higher throughout this week, but didn‘t – given its Monday‘s performance, I had some reservations even as the support zone held, and upswing could easily follow – especially given the positive copper to oil ratio‘s move, or TLT not putting fresh pressure. But that‘s not happening in today‘s pre-market session, as the support‘s lower border is being tested again.Silver keeps holding the $26 level, and still trades at the 50-day moving average. While it‘s lagging behind both platinum and copper, its chart is (unlike gold‘s) bullish. Remember, the most bullish thing prices can do, is to rise. Not to rebound and fizzle out, only to rebound and fizzle out again, the way we see in gold as it keeps offering both bearish and bullish signs.OilOil keeps trading in a bullish fashion, and the 3-day long correction hasn‘t broken even Feb local lows yet. While we‘re for increased volatility in here, the uptrend remains strong, and volume currently doesn‘t support a deep correction theory. Just look how little have the retreating daily indicators achieved when it comes to the underlying price move? That‘s a reflection of a strong uptrend, which would be however best advised to resume sooner rather than later so as not to lose the technical advantage.SummaryStock bulls are on a recovery path, and new all time highs are basically a question of when the tech would step up to the plate again. Despite today‘s premarket weakness reaching well below the 3,870 level, the S&P 500 internals and credit markets performance (including foreign bonds) doesn‘t indicate that much downside potential currently. This correction‘s shape is largely in, and I mean the price downside – patience though will be needed before seeing new highs.Gold remains stuck in its support zone, unable to rally, not breaking down. The copper advantage of yesterday is lost for today, but seeing it and silver recover would be the most likely outcome once the immediate threat of rising Treasury yields retreats more noticeably. Gold is far from out of the woods, and flirting with the support level without a convincing rebound, is dangerous to the bulls.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Gold Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Rally Targeting $2300+, But When Will it Start?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 04.03.2021 15:12
One of our readers' favorite tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system.  This tool maps out technical and price patterns into an array of similar setups using historical data, then applies that data to current and future price bars.  Using the ADL predictive Modeling tool, we can see into the future based on historical technical analysis that maps statistically relevant price activity and shows us the highest probability outcomes. Monthly ADL Gold PredictionsIn this research article, we're going to focus on Gold and how current price action suggests a bottom is likely near the $1720 level.  The YELLOW price channels on this Monthly Gold chart highlight exactly where we believe support is located for Gold.  If this $1700 price level is breached to the downside, then the previous lows, near $1400, are the next support level for Gold.Our ADL predictive modeling system suggests the $1720 support level will hold, prompting a new rally to levels above $2200 within 30 to 60+ days.  The ADL system predicts an aggressive move in Gold near May or June 2021.  The move higher may happen earlier than the ADL Monthly predictions indicate.  There is a chance that a move back above $1850 starts the move higher before the end of March or April 2021 – propelling Gold toward the $2300+ peak.  The actual peak level predicted by the ADL predictive modeling system is $2315.2-Week ADL Predicts Gold May Start To Rally near Mid-MarchThis 2-Week Gold Chart highlights a similar ADL price prediction.  What we find interesting about this ADL outcome is the similar price predictions originating from vastly different origination points.  The Monthly ADL prediction originates from a date of August 1, 2020 – the peak price bar.  This 2-Week ADL prediction originates from a date of November 23, 2020 – the intermediate low DOJI bar before the recent continue downward trend targeting the YELLOW price channel. Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!The similarities between these two unique ADL predictions suggest that Gold may attempt to find support fairly quickly near the $1700 to $1720 level, then attempt to move above $1795~1825 as an early stage rebound off the lower YELLOW price channel.  The 2-Week ADL price prediction suggests that Gold will quickly attempt to move higher, before or near March 20th, targeting levels above $1900.  Then, as you can see from the YELLOW DASH LINES on this chart, Gold will attempt to move moderately higher over the next 2 to 3+ months targeting levels above $2030.If these ADL price predictions are accurate and Gold does find a solid bottom near $1700, then we would want to watch for an upward price trend to start to setup near March 15th or so, attempting to push Gold prices above $1850 to $1900.  If that happens, then the next phase of the ADL price predictions would become even more relevant.  That means the upward price trend would attempt to target the $2050 level, then the $2300 level before June or July 2021.Our ADL predictive modeling system accurately called the rally in gold in 2019 and has delivered some incredible predictive analysis over the past few months.  You can read some of our earlier ADL predictions here:November 22, 2020: ADAPTING DYNAMIC LEARNING SHOWS POSSIBLE UPSIDE PRICE RALLY IN GOLD & SILVERAugust 4, 2020: REVISITING OUR SILVER AND GOLD PREDICTIONS – GET READY FOR HIGHER PRICESMarch 28, 2019: PRECIOUS METALS SETUP FINAL BUYING OPPORTUNITYMiner ETFs May See Big GainsIn terms of sector ETF trends, a stronger upside move in Gold would likely prompt Miner ETFs to also move dramatically higher over the next 30 to 60+ days.  This GDXJ Weekly chart highlights a Fibonacci 100% measured move higher which suggests the $73.91 and $91.71 levels could become our next upside targets. Additionally, one has to consider the process that would likely prompt Gold to move higher throughout this span of time.  A continued commodity rally could prompt some of this move to happen, but fear would also have to be factored into this move if Gold were to rally above $2300 as the ADL system predicts.  Any renewed fear would likely come from global financial or credit market concerns or be related to hyper-inflation concerns.  We'll have to see how things progress throughout the rest of 2021 to really get a better feel for what may be driving this upward price trend.We suggest traders pay very close attention to what happens in Gold over the next 2 to 4+ weeks.  If our ADL predictions are accurate, we could see some really big moves in the global markets, various sectors and metals/miners very quickly. If the markets start to roll over and volatility rises, we can benefit from it with our Options Trading Signals which we use non-direction trades to sell premiums. This allows options traders to profit from volatility and not worry about which way the market moves.Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors in 2021, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.
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Are S&P 500 and Precious Metals Bears Just Getting Started?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2021 16:19
Scary selling yesterday? See how little the downswing has achieved technically, check out the other characteristics, and you‘ll probably reach the same conclusion I did. It‘s still about the tech getting its act together while much of the rest of the market is doing quite fine.The credit market confirm, as is obvious from the HYG:SHY ratio chart I‘m showing you. True, long-term Treasuries are under pressure, but I wrote on Monday that not even considerably higher rates would break the bulls‘ back. The dollar isn‘t getting far, and given tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls, which are expected to be rather bad… Check instead another chart I am featuring today, and that‘s volatility – this correction appears in its latter stages as the crash callers „now, this quarter, whenever because it‘s allegedly overdue“, will be again surprised and backtracking in tone once the market gets what it wants: more liquidity.That was stocks, what about gold? No shortage of gloomy charts there, accompanied by various calls for a local bottom. The most bullish one (me included, talks about a possible bottom being made here, with the $1,700 to $1,690 zone able to stop the downside. I am though also raising the lower border of the Apr-May 2020 consolidation, which is around $1,670, as an even stronger support (over $40 lower than the above one) than the volume profile based one we‘re still at currently – and based on different tools, I am far from alone. The doomsayers‘ scary clickbaitish targets of $1,500 or $1,350 are in the minority, and about as helpful as calls for $100 silver before years‘ end. As I always say, let‘s be realistic, honest, and act with real integrity. People deserve better than to be played around through fear or greed.Silver remains in a solid uptrend, and so does platinum. Regardless of today‘s premarket downswing taking copper over 4% down as we speak, commodities are happily running higher in the face of „no inflation here, move along“ calls. How far is the Fed announcing yield curve control, or at least a twist program? Markets crave more intervention, and those calling for rate hikes to materialize soon, are landing with egg on their faces – mark my words, the Fed is going to stay accommodative longer than generally anticipated – have we learned nothing from the Yellen Fed?Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsYesterday‘s downswing didn‘t attract outstanding volume, and didn‘t overcome Fri‘s one. Regardless of the visit to the lower border of recent trading range, the bears would have to become more active to flip this chart bearish really.Credit MarketsThe key leading credit market ratio – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) – hasn‘t really broken down yesterday. Just a consolidation that has an inverse head and shoulders shape on top. Of course, until the neckline is broken, there are no bullish implications, but I am looking for higher HYG:SHY values regardless.VolatilityYesterday‘s volatility – and put/call readings too – are very tame, and that detracts from the credibility of a significant downswing starting here considerably.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) compared to the value stocks (VTV ETF) shows clearly once again the performance difference – tech still taking time and basing, while value sectors and high-beta segments keep doing largely fine. This view isn‘t one that‘s associated with the onset of real corrections – but with waiting for the tech to start behaving for new highs to be attainable once again.Gold and SilverGold still has a good chance to rebound higher, even though it missed yesterday‘s opportunity that would have resulted in a nice hammer candlestick. Nevermind, we have to live with what we have – and the support is still unbroken, not ruling out an upswing in the least. Yes, regardless of the deeply negative Force index which really wasted each prior opportunity to turn positive this winter. The metals would do well to get used to living with higher nominal rates really, when the real rates are little changed. Silver keeps doing much better, which is little surprising given the economic recovery, leading indicators not weakening, manufacturing activity doing fine – it‘s a versatile metal, both industrial and monetary after all. Compare how little has its Force index declined vs. gold – this is rather a bullish chart, unlike gold still searching for direction (i.e. without an established uptrend).CopperLet‘s compare the red metal (perched high, digesting steep Feb gains) to platinum and silver. I‘m featuring copper as the key determinant for precious metals, also given the positive Mar seasonality. The above chart fittingly illustrates the bull market‘s strength – and the waiting on gold to join.SummaryStock bulls have to once again take the trip to the 3,900 mark, and when that happens, depends on the tech the most. The S&P 500 internals and credit market performance remains sound, and new highs are a question of time (and stimulus).Gold remains stuck in its support zone, unable to rally, not breaking down. While copper is retreating today, the technical odds favor a rebound off this support. Once that happens, it would be though still too early to call for the new gold bull upleg to resume – much more would need to happen, such as the miners doing really well, and so on. But we‘ll get there.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Gold Approaches $1,700 on Rising Economic Confidence

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.03.2021 16:39
Gold remains in a bearish trend as economic confidence has improved, however, inflation can change all that around.The chart presenting gold prices in 2021 doesn’t look too encouraging. The yellow metal continued its bearish trend at the turn of February and March. So, as one can see, the price of gold has declined from $1,943 on January 4 to $1,711 on Wednesday (Mar. 3) This means a drop of 232 bucks, or 12 percent since the beginning of the year.What is happening in the gold market? I would like to blame the jittering bond market and increasing bond yields , but the uncomfortable truth is that the yellow metal has slid in the past few days despite the downward correction in the bond yields. If you don’t believe, take a look at the chart below. This is an important bearish signal, given how closely gold is usually linked to the real interest rates .So, it seems that there are more factors at work than just the bond yields. One of them is the recent modest strengthening of the greenback , probably amid rising U.S. interest rates and ECB officials’ remarks about possible expansion of the ECB’s accommodative stance if the selloff in the bond market continues.Another piece of bearish news for the gold market is that President Joe Biden struck a last-minute stimulus deal with Democratic Senators that narrows the income eligibility for the next round of $1,400 stimulus checks. It means that the upcoming fiscal stimulus will be lower than previously expected, negatively affecting inflation expectations and, thus, the demand for gold as an inflation hedge .Lastly, I have to mention the high level of confidence in the economy. Indeed, the recent rise in the bond yields may just be a sign of more optimism about the economic recovery from the pandemic recession . Hence, despite all the economic problems the U.S. will have to face – mainly the huge indebtedness or actually the debt-trap – investors have decided to not pay too much attention to the elephants in the room. As the chart below shows, the credit spread (ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread), which is a useful measure of economic confidence, has returned to the pre-pandemic level, indicating a strong belief in the state of the economy. This is, of course, bad for safe-haven assets such as gold.Implications for GoldWhat does this all mean for gold prices? Well, from the long-term perspective, the recent slide to almost $1,700 could just be noise in the marketplace. But gold’s disappointing performance is really disturbing given the seemingly perfect environment for the precious metals . After all, we live in a world of negative interest rates , a weak U.S. dollar, rising fiscal deficits and public debt , soaring money supply and unprecedented dovish monetary and fiscal policies . So, the bearish trend may be more lasting, as market sentiment is still negative. Investors usually turn to gold, a great portfolio diversifier and a safe haven , when other investment are falling. But the worst is already behind us, the economy has already bottomed out, so confidence in the economy is now high, and equities are rising.Having said that, the recent jump in the bond yields also means rising inflation expectations . Indeed, as the chart below shows, they have already surpassed the levels seen before the outbreak of the pandemic .Actually, the 5-year breakeven inflation rate has reached 2.45 percent, the highest level since the midst of the Great Recession . So, in some part, investors are selling bonds, as they are preparing for an reflation environment marked by higher inflation . At some point, if the fear of inflation strengthens, then economic confidence will waver, and investors could again turn toward gold.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Silver, don’t be fooled

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 05.03.2021 12:25
Here are the facts why there is a higher likelihood for Silver prices to advance:A lot of news items attract buyers. Silver is in the limelight.Physical Silver prices trade up to 30% over the spot price.We had a bullish twelve-month period for Silver prices. Consequently, describing the first leg of a trend. With a high probability of two more legs to be following.We see money inflow into the precious metal sector as a whole. These are safe haven seeking investments due to the threat of hyperinflation caused by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.Possible highest ever physical delivery months within this year for Silver futures traded on the COMEX exchange.Daily Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, Good support:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 5th, 2021.Looking at this sideways range, we find ample support of prices within the range right now as a healthy spot to acquire physical Silver. We pointed out that last time around prices touched the simple 200 moving average, Silver prices exploded. We expect a similar scenario now. There is a likelihood that prices might already take off in the upcoming week here from the secondary volume analysis support point (POC=point of control). These stacked up edges of support provide for tighter stops and great risk-reward ratios.  Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Stacking Odds:Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 5th, 2021.A great way timing your Silver entry is also looking at inter-market relationships. Once Gold, the sector leader, will find its support, Silver will follow. This technique might help distinguish if Silver will be bouncing from primary or secondary POC in the upcoming week (as indicated in the first chart of this article).The monthly chart above shows that Gold has entered a prime buy zone between US$1,650 and US$1,700. Both the Fibonacci retracement and the fractal volume analysis demand zone substantiate that fact.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, don’t be fooled:Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 5th, 2021.Another view at Gold reveals that it bounced strongly last time it touched its simple 20 months moving average. It is a confirmation that we might be able to temporarily bottom here and support a possible Silver up move. In such a case Silver might be temporarily topping by mid-August to mid-September this year. At that time, Silver will be ripe for partial profit taking to reduce long-term risk by using our quad exit strategy.Our thinking is all programmed for a hundred years to benchmark against dollars. I am sure you have noticed your groceries to be more expensive now or better said, everything being more expensive. Maybe thinking the dollar is worth less is a more somber way of perceiving the change. Benchmarking against Silver or Gold or even Bitcoin might be a more accurate measure of value perception. Average monthly wages in Venezuela representing a value of US$6 are an excellent example of what hyperinflation can look like.If you are holding your wealth in US-Dollars only, you are at extreme risk. We are not too specific on Silver or Gold or mining companies or Bitcoin or land, but we are risk averse. We urge you to look critically at fiat currency holdings. The risk/reward-ratio of Silver at this time is excellent. Usable as a hedge against this risk!Silver, don’t be fooled:When you hear from many various sources that Silver “is the thing to buy,” it feels like “too good to be true.” Sound fundamental analysis shows that holding physical Silver is, in fact, a prudent course of action. Silver prices are manipulated. They do not reflect true value. Physical prices trading much higher than the spot price. Once truth can’t be suppressed anymore, we see a fair likelihood for Silver prices to advance rapidly. Our conservative targets for the Silver market point at annual highs near Labor Day. At that point we aim to take partial profits.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 5th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
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Great ADP Figures But Things Can Still Turn Nasty

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.03.2021 15:48
Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500 plunged, breaking far outside the Bollinger Bands confines, illustrating the extraordinary nature of the move. Rebound would be perfectly natural here (and we‘re getting one as we speak) – but will it be more than a dead cat bounce?Stocks partially recovered from last Friday‘s intraday plunge, and good news about the stimulus clearing House followed after the market close – stock bulls took the opportunity, and Monday‘s session gave signs that the worst is over. Tuesday‘s move partially negated that, but even after Wednesday, the short-term case was undecided (even as tech kept acting relatively weak).Yesterday‘s session though gives the short-term advantage to the bears, and that‘s because of the weak performance I see in other stock market indices and bonds. The Russell 2000 got under pressure, negating what by yesterday still looked like a shallow correction there. So did the emerging markets and their bonds. More downside can materialize either suddenly or slowly over the coming say 1-2 weeks. It depends on the tech and its heavyweight names, where these find support. Corporate credit markets aren‘t weakening as dramatically though – as you‘ll see illustrated later on, both high yield corporate bonds and the HYG:SHY ratio are holding up much better than stocks. While that‘s bullish, the S&P 500 apparently hasn‘t yet learned to live with higher rates – let alone considerably higher ones.The key element playing the markets now, is the Fed‘s approach to inflation, rising long-term Treasuries in the face of central bank inaction and inflation denialism, which translates into the dollar taking the turn higher courtesy of the stresses induced across many asset classes. I asked yesterday:(...) How far is the Fed announcing yield curve control, or at least a twist program? Markets crave more intervention, and those calling for rate hikes to materialize soon, are landing with egg on their faces – mark my words, the Fed is going to stay accommodative longer than generally anticipated – have we learned nothing from the Yellen Fed?The ostrich pose on inflation isn‘t helping – it‘s sending Treasuries down, turning much of the rest red. Does the Fed want to see the market forcing some kind of answer / action the way it did in Dec 2018? The Fed is risking such a development now, this time through inaction, and not thanks to monetary tightening as back then.While some argue that inflation just brings a Fed rate hike closer, I really doubt that this option is treated seriously inside the Eccles building. It would be the right choice if you were serious about fighting inflation before it takes root – but in whose interest is that? Just look at the transitory statements, Fed official beliefs that to see it hit even 3% would be extraordinary, and you understand that their models understating it considerably in the first place, aren‘t even sending them the correct, magnitudinal signals.I see it as more probable that they would just try to suppress its symptoms, and succumb to the markets even more vocally demanding some action, by going the twist route. In effect, they would be then fighting the war on two fronts, as I explained in the middle of Feb already.Food inflation running hot, commodities on fire, and gold is going nowhere still. The bears are vocal, and I‘ve laid down a realistic game plan yesterday, discussing the gold support levels and perspectives. If you‘re disappointed that gold isn‘t doing as well as commodities, consider the mid-Feb described cascading inflation process as it devours more and more of the financial landscape – we still have a weak job market that doesn‘t contribute to the inflationary pressures, relegating the true, undeniable inflation to the 2022-3 timeframe.Let‘s keep the big picture – gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – I am not capitulating to (hundreds dollars) lower numbers below $1,650 on a sustainable basis. The new precious metals upleg is a question of time even though the waiting is getting longer than comfortable for many, including myself. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsReasonably heavy volume with most of yesterday‘s candle, pushing vigorously to start a new downtrend. Given yesterday‘s move, some kind of retracement is likely today as a minimum, but the bears have the upper hand now.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) haven‘t declined below last week‘s lows, and are still at bullish divergence readings. Will they keep above these? Doing so is essential for the still unfolding S&P 500 correction.High yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) aren‘t as panicky as stocks here, which is more than mildly optimistic.Put/Call Ratio and VolatilityThe put/call ratio is well below the Feb or Jan highs, while the volatility index is much higher relatively to these. While that‘s an opportunity for even more panic, volatily would quickly die down if today‘s S&P 500 upswing sticks. Then, it would be time to evaluate the changes in posture. Either way, this correction appears to have longer to run still.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) compared to the value stocks (VTV ETF) shows where the engine of decline is – and it‘s starting to have an effect on value, high beta plays. Not until tech stabilizes, can the correction be called as really close to over – just check how the equal weighted S&P 500 (RSP ETF) suffers right now.Gold, Silver and MinersAnother bite into the volume profile support zone, and the gold upswing isn‘t here still. Another missed daily opportunity to rebound. The yellow metal is still in a precarious position until it shakes off the rising (nominal, not real) rates albatross.Silver is in a technically stronger position, but signs of deterioration are creeping here too. It‘s painfully obvious when the miners are examined – the silver ones are leading to the downside, and the gold ones, well seniors outperforming juniors isn‘t a sign of strength really. The sky isn‘t definitely clear here.SummaryStock bulls have to once again try to repair the damage, and their success depends on the tech the most. The S&P 500 internals are slightly deteriorating, but the credit market performance remains more solid. New highs remain a question of time (and the stimulus carrot).Gold remains acting weak around the lower border of its support zone, and silver is joining in the deterioration, not to mention the mining indices. The yellow metal is though short-term holding up rather well, when the TLT and USDX pressures are considered.
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3… 2… 1… Let the Corrective Rally Begin

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.03.2021 16:43
Folks, it seems that gold has formed an interim bottom, and a short-term corrective upswing is now likely, before the medium-term downtrend resumes.Any further declines from this point are not likely to be significant for the short-term. The same applies to silver and the miners.In yesterday’s (Mar. 4) intraday Gold & Silver Trading Alert , I described briefly why I think that the very short-term bottom is already in (or is at hand), and in today’s analysis, I’ll illustrate my points with charts. Let’s start with gold.Figure 1 – COMEX Gold Futures (GC.F)Gold just reached its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the entire 2020 rally), and it just bounced off the declining red support line based on the August and November 2020 bottoms.Gold didn’t reach the previous 2020 lows just yet, but it moved very close to them and the two strong above-mentioned support levels could be enough to trigger a corrective upswing. After all, no market can move up or down in a straight line without periodic corrections.I previously wrote that when gold moves $1,693 we’ll be closing any remaining short positions, and when gold moves to $1,692, we’ll automatically open long positions in the miners. Since gold moved below $1,690, that’s exactly what happened.Yesterday (Mar. 4), gold futures were trading below $1,692 for about 10 minutes, so if you acted as I had outlined it in the Gold & Silver Trading Alerts, you made your purchases then. The GDX ETF was trading approximately between $30.80 and $31 (NUGT was approximately between $49.30 and $50) at that time – this seems to have been the exact daily bottom.One of the bullish confirmations came from the silver market .Figure 2 – COMEX Silver FuturesI previously wrote that silver is likely to catch up with the decline at its later stage, while miners are likely to lead the way.While gold miners showed strength yesterday, silver plunged over 4% before correcting part of the move. Yesterday’s relative action showed that this was most likely the final part of a short-term decline in the precious metals sector, and that we should now expect a corrective rebound, before the medium-term decline resumes. If not, it seems that the short-term bottom is at hand and while silver might still decline somewhat in the very short term, any declines are not likely to be significant in case of the mining stocks. At least not until they correct the recent decline by rallying back up.Speaking of mining stocks, let’s take a look at the GDX ETF chart.Figure 3 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Mining stocks showed strength yesterday. Even though gold moved visibly to new yearly lows, the GDX didn’t move to new intraday lows. The GDXJ did move to new intraday lows, but the decline was relatively small compared to what happened in gold and to what happened on the general stock market. The latter declined substantially yesterday and the GDXJ is more correlated with it than GDX – hence GDXJ’s underperformance was normal. Still, compared to both gold’s decline and stocks’ decline, the GDXJ and GDX declined very little.The price level at which miners showed strength matters greatly too. Miners stopped their decline practically right in my target area, which I based on the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 2020 highs and lows. Moreover, the proximity of the $31 level corresponds to the 2019 high and the 2016 high. Since so many support levels coincide at the same price (approximately), the latter is likely to be a very strong support.Moreover, the RSI was just close to 30, which corresponded to short-term buying opportunities quite a few times in the past.How high are miners likely to rally from here before turning south once again? The nearest strong resistance is provided by the neck level of the previously broken head and shoulders pattern, which is slightly above $34.Also, let’s keep in mind the mirror similarity in case of the price action that preceded the H&S pattern and the one that followed it. To be precise, we know that the second half of the pattern was similar to its first half (including the shape of pattern’s shoulders), but it’s not yet very clear if the follow-up action after the pattern is going to be similar to the preceding price action. It seems quite likely, though. If this is indeed the case, then the price moves that I marked using green and purple lines are likely to be at least somewhat similar.This means that just as the late-April 2020 rally was preceded by a counter-trend decline, the recent decline would likely be followed by a counter-trend rally. Based on the size of the April counter-trend move, it seems that we could indeed see a counter-trend rally to about $34 this time.There’s also an additional clue that might help you time the next short-term top, and it’s the simple observation that it was relatively safe to exit one’s long positions five trading days after the bottom.That rule marked the exact bottom in November 2020, but it was also quite useful in early February 2021. In early December 2020, it would take one out of the market only after the very first part of the upswing, but still, let’s keep in mind that it was the “easy” part of the rally. The same with the October 2020 rally. And now, since miners are after a confirmed breakdown below the broad head and shoulders pattern, it’s particularly important not to miss the moment to get back on the short side of the market, as the next move lower is likely to be substantial. Therefore, aiming to catch the “easy” part of the corrective rally seems appropriate.So, if the bottom was formed yesterday, then we can expect to take profits from the current long position off the table close to the end of next week.Finally, let’s take a look at the USD Index.Figure 4 – USD IndexWhile the medium-term breakout continues to be the most important technical development visible on the above chart (with important bullish implications for the following months), there is one factor that could make the USD Index decline on a temporary basis.This factor is the similarity to the mid-2020 price pattern. I previously commented on the head and shoulders pattern that had formed (necklines are marked with dashed lines), but that I didn’t trust. Indeed, this formation was invalidated, but a bigger pattern, of which this formation was part, wasn’t invalidated.The patterns start with a broad bottom and an initial rally. Then it turns out that the initial rally is the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern that is then completed and invalidated. This is followed by a sharp rally, and then a reversal with a sizable daily decline.So far, the situations are similar.Last year, this pattern was followed by a decline to new lows. Now, based on the breakout above the rising medium-term support line, such a bearish outcome doesn’t seem likely, but we might see the pattern continue for several more days, before they disconnect. After all, this time, the USD Index is likely to really rally – similarly to how it soared in 2018 – and not move to new lows.What happens before the patterns disconnect? The USD Index could decline temporarily.Back in November 2020, the second top was below the initial one, and we just saw the USD Index move to new yearly high. Did the self-similar pattern break yet? In a way yes, but it doesn’t mean that the bearish implications are completely gone.In mid-2020, the USD Index topped after moving to the previous important intraday low – I marked it with a horizontal line on the above chart.Right now, the analogous resistance is provided by the September 2020 bottom and at the moment of writing these words, the USD Index moved right to this level.Consequently, it could be the case that we see a decline partially based on the above-mentioned resistance and partially based on the remaining self-similar pattern. The latter would be likely to lose its meaning over the next several days and would be decisively broken once the USD Index rallies later in March. The above would create a perfect opportunity for the precious metals sector to correct the recent decline – and for miners (GDX ETF) to rally to $34 or so.Please note that if gold rallies here – and it’s likely to – then this will be the “perfect” time for the gold and stock market permabulls to “claim victory” and state that the decline is over and that they were right about the rally all along. Please be careful when reading such analyses in the following days, especially if they come from people that have always been bullish. If someone is always bullish, the odds are that they won’t tell you when the next top is going to be (after all, this would imply that they stop being bullish for a while). Just because anyone can publish an article online, doesn’t mean that they should, or that others should follow their analyses. The internet is now replete people who claim to have expertise in the markets, and we all saw what happened to the profits of those who bought GameStop at $300. It’s the same thing that happened to the profits of those who were told since the beginning of this year that gold is going to rally – they turned into losses. What we see as well are internet echo chambers, where you are more likely to only read articles that express what you already agree with, instead of being exposed to differing viewpoints that shed light on other critical factors.Gold is likely to rally from here, but it’s highly unlikely that this was the final bottom, and that gold can now soar to new highs. No. The rally in the USD Index has only begun and while it could pull back, it’s likely to soar once again, similarly to how it rallied in 2018. And gold is likely to respond with another substantial wave lower. This doesn’t mean we’re permabears either or that we want to see gold fail. On the contrary, gold has a bright future ahead, but not before it goes through a medium-term decline after this corrective rally is over.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys To Further US/Global Economic Recovery – Part I

Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys To Further US/Global Economic Recovery – Part I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 08.03.2021 03:55
At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities.  The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises.  The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”.  We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP.  It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand equilibrium functioning properly.  The participation of the consumer within an economy is essential for a healthy growing economy.WHERE ARE CONSUMERS NOW & WHERE WILL THEY BE IN THE FUTURE?The US has passed more than $4 Trillion in COVID-19 stimulus over the past 12+ months.  At the same time, global central banks have also engaged in various easy money policies to spark global economic activity.  When we combine the efforts of world governments and central banks, we've seen an unprecedented amount of money deployed throughout the globe recently – and that money needs to find its purpose and use in the global economy quickly of the global economy is going to recover enough to spark a new wave of economic growth.We believe two key components of consumer engagement are at play right now; investing/trading in the US and global markets and Real Estate.  Whereas US consumers have been reducing debt exposure on credit cards and tightening their spending in other ways, trading volumes in the stock market Indexes and ETFs have increased dramatically over the past 12 months.  Additionally, low supply and low interest rates have kept the US housing market active, in addition to the boost in activity from people moving to more rural areas as the work-from-home phenomenon settles into the new normal.CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEXThis Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index chart, below shows how quickly home prices have rallied over the past 12 months. Just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, this index was flattening.  Then the moratorium on foreclosures and extended assistance for homeowners pulled many homes back off the market in early 2020.  That reduced supply and prompted a rally in home prices across the US.The assistance provided to these “at-risk” homeowners accomplished two very important economic benefits.  It eliminated a wave of new foreclosures (albeit possibly temporarily) and it prompted a seller's market because supply had been constricted.  The result is that many homeowners witnessed a 6% to 10% increase in their home values over the last 12+ months.DELINQUENCY RATES ON CONSUMER LOANSUnlike in 2006-2008 when delinquency rates skyrocketed during the housing crisis, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, delinquency rates collapsed to the lowest levels over the past 25+ years.  Consumers took their extra capital, stimulus checks, and federal assistance and used the past 12+ months to eliminate certain debts.  Even though we are starting to see an uptick in delinquency rates in Q4 2020, these levels would have to climb considerably before we get close to the levels before the COVID-19 pandemic.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!This suggests that a broad spectrum of US consumers are in a much better economic position related to revolving debt, or credit card debt, than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic.  If these consumers begin to engage in a new economic recovery by engaging in a healthy credit expansion, we may see a boost to certain sectors of the economy over the next 24 to 36+ months.REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESUnlike many other indicators, Real Personal Consumption has risen past the pre-COVID-19 peak levels.  This suggests that consumers are still spending money on Durable Goods and are continuing to buy essential items to support their lifestyles and families.  Yes, there are a number of people that are unemployed or have transitioned to other types of work, but the stimulus efforts and extended unemployment assistance has translated into real consumer engagement for Durable Goods, as we can see from the chart below.Remember, Durable Goods are not typically found at Grocery Stores or Walmart.  They are items that have extended life-cycles (greater than three years); such as cars, planes, trains, furniture, appliances, jewelry, and books.  This rise in Durable Goods suggests that a large segment of the US consumer is actively engaged in making bigger-ticket purchases recently – possibly as a result of buying a new home, transitioning away from traditional work environments, and/or repositioning family essentials in preparation for a post COVID-19 world.  This type of economic engagement may continue for many months forward.CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – ALL URBAN CONSUMERSThe following Consumer Price Index chart shows that general consumer prices briefly dipped when COVID-19 hit in March 2020, but they have since rallied to new highs.  This is partially a result of the rise in home prices and rising commodity prices, which contribute to a rise in price levels for consumers.All of this data is showing that the US consumer is actually much more economically healthy than consumers were in the midst of the 2007-08 housing crisis. The stimulus efforts and partial economic shutdown did result in a large number of displaced or disadvantaged consumers, but it also shows that many US consumers were able to quickly transition into a different type of economic environment with very little extended economic risks.The new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package will offer even more assistance to consumers.  This new stimulus will be spent as new COVID-19 vaccines are being rolled out, suggesting the US is quickly moving away from extended risks related to the pandemic.  This means consumers will likely start attempting to go back to normal in certain ways.  Does this mean that the recovery efforts will strengthen the bullish price trend in the future and the US stock markets will continue to rally?In our effort to better identify opportunities for traders and investors as the post-COVID-19 recovery unfolds, we will continue to identify various market sectors that my research team and I believe have a strong potential for increased bullish price trends.  All of the data we've presented so far suggests the US consumer is much healthier than many people consider and that many US consumers are still actively engaged in some type of work/income solution.  The only reason why housing, durable goods, CPI, and other economic indicators continue to rise is because US consumers are actively engaged in buying/consuming bigger, durable goods.  This suggests the new $1.9 Trillion COVID relief effort may begin to push the US economy further into overdrive, and possibly pushing the supply/demand balance even further beyond the equilibrium zone.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.In Part II of this article, we'll take the data we've reviewed already and apply it to current market conditions, trends, and technical setups as we look for new opportunities in consumer-based sectors.  My team and I believe some very big sector trends are going to set up as a result of everything that is converging on the US and global markets.  It's time to get ready for some big trends. 
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

No More Rocking the Boat in Stocks But Gold?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.03.2021 15:23
Stocks sharply reversed intraday, and closed just where they opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite some searching for direction in this correction that isn‘t over just yet. Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?So, I am looking for stocks to do rather well as they are absorbing the rising nominal rates. It‘s also about the pace of such move, which has been extraordinary, and left long-term Treasuries trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. Thus, they‘re prone to a quick snapback rally over the next 1-2 weeks, which would help the S&P 500 regain even stronger footing. And even plain temporary stabilization of theirs would do the trick.This is taking me directly to gold. We have good odds of long-term rates not pressuring the yellow metal as much as recently, and inflation expectations are also rising (not as well anchored to 2% as the Fed thinks / says). As I‘ll show you in the charts, the signs of decoupling have been already visible for some time, and now became more apparent. And that‘s far from the only suggestion of an upcoming gold upswing that I‘ll bring you today.Just as I was calling out gold as overheated in Aug 2020 and prone to a real soft patch, some signs of internal strength in the precious metals sector were present this Feb already. And now as we have been testing for quite a few days the first support in my game plan, we‘re getting once again close to a bullish formation that I called precisely to a day, and had been banging the bearish gold drum for the following two days, anticipating the downside that followed. Now, that‘s what I call welcome flexibility, extending to accentuated, numerous portfolio calls.And the permabears keep (losing capital through many bullish years in a row in some cases) calling for hundreds bucks more downside after a respite now, not even entertaining the thought that gold bottom might very well not be quarters ahead. It‘s easier to try falsely project own perma stickers onto others. Beware of wolves in ill-fitting sheep clothing. Look at full, proven track records, compare varying perspectives of yesteryear too, and wave off cheap halo effects.It‘s the above dynamic between nominal rates taking a breather, dollar getting back under pressure, commodities continuing their rise and stocks gradually resuming theirs – see the ebbing and flowing that I‘m laying down in the daily analyses on the revamped homepage, and you‘ll get a knack for my timings of local tops or bottoms just the way I did in the early Sep buying climax or in the corona crash.True mastery is in integrating and arguing opposing views with experience and adaptability daily. People are thankfully able to recognize these characteristics on their own – and they have memory too. Who needs to be told what to read and consider by those embracing expertise only to turn against it when the fruits were no longer theirs? Sour grapes. Narrow thinking is one of the dangers of our era replete with empty and shallow shortcuts. Curiosity, ingenuity and diligence are a gift to power mankind – and what you get from financial analysts – forward in a virtuous circle.If gold prices rise from here, they have bounced off support. Simple as that, especially given the accompanying signs presented. There is time to run with the herd, and against the herd – in both bull and bear trends, constantly reevaluating the rationale for a position, unafraid to turn on a dime when justified.Whatever else bullish or bearish I see technically and fundamentally in rates, inflation and dollar among much else, I‘ll be duly reporting and commenting on as always. It‘s the markets‘ discounting mechanism of the future that counts – just as gold cleared the deflationary corona crash in psring 2020, just as it disregarded the tough Fed tone of 2H 2018, just as it sprang vigorously higher in early 2016 stunning bears in all three cases with sharp losses over many months, or just as stocks stopped declining well before economic news got better in April 2020 or March 2009. Make no mistake, the markets consider transitioning to a higher inflation environment already now (the Fed timidly says that reopening will spike it, well, temporarily they say), when inflation expectations are still relatively low, yet peeking higher based on the Fed‘s own data. Such were my Friday‘s words:(…) Let‘s keep the big picture – gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – I am not capitulating to (hundreds dollars) lower numbers below $1,650 on a sustainable basis. The new precious metals upleg is a question of time even though the waiting is getting longer than comfortable for many, including myself. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsStrong rebound after more downside was rejected, creating a tweezers bottom formation, with long lower knots. This is suggestive of most of the downside being already in. The Feb 25 upswing had a bearish flavor to it, while the Mar 1 one looked more constructive – and Friday‘s one is from the latter category. That doesn‘t mean though this correction won‘t be in the 5% range. The 3,900 zone is critical for the bulls to pass so as to clear the current precarious almost no man‘s land.The market breadth indicators are actually quite resilient given how far this correction has reached. New highs new lows are holding up still very well, yet they too indicate that this correction has further to go in time. While the bullish percent index still remains in the bullish territory, it indicates how far the correction has progressed technically, and that we can‘t declare the bullish spirits as having returned just yet.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) ilustrate this fragility for they haven‘t rebounded as strongly as stocks. This correction doesn‘t appear to be as really over just yet, also given the sectoral picture that I am showing you next.S&P 500 Sectoral LookTech reversed, but higher volume would be welcome to lend the move more credibility. This sector is still the weakest link in the whole S&P 500 rebound, and not until I see the $NYFANG carve out a sustainable bottom (this needn‘t happen at the 200-day moving average really), I can declare this correction as getting close to over. The bullish take on the volume is that the value sector has undergone strong accumulation, as can be readily seen in the equal weight S&P 500 index (RSP ETF). The above chart shows that cyclicals are performing strongly – with industrials (XLI ETF) and energy (XLE ETF) leading the charge as the tech and defensives are trying to stabilize, and the same is true about consumer discretionaries (XLY ETF).Gold‘s Big Picture ViewGold‘s weekly chart shows two different stages in the reaction to rising long-term rates. The first half was characterized by the two tracking each other rather closely, yet since late Dec, the nominal rates pressure has been abating in strength within the mutual relationship. While TLT plunged, gold didn‘t move down as strongly. Real rates are negative, nominal rates rose fast, and inflation expectations have been trending higher painfully slowly, not reflecting the jump in commodities or the key inflation precursor (food price inflation) just yet – these are the factors pressuring gold as the Fed‘s brinkmanship on inflation goes on. Once the Fed moves to bring long-term rates under control through intervention – hello yield curve control or at least twist – then real rates would would be pressured to drop, which would be a lifeline for gold – the real questions now are how far gold is willing to drop before that, and when that Fed move would happen. Needless to add as a side note regarding the still very good economic growth (the expansion is still young), staglation is what gold would really love.Copper and Silver Big Picture ViewThe red metal keeps rising without end in sight, reflecting both the economic recovery and monetary intervention. This is a very bullish chart with strong implications for other commodities and silver too. That‘s the essence of my favorite play in the precious metals – long silver short gold spread, clearly spelled out as more promising than waiting for gold upswing to arrive while the yellow metals‘ bullish signs have been appearing through Feb only to disappear, reappear, and so on.As you can see, silver performance approximates commodity performance better than gold one. And as the economic recovery goes on, it‘s indeed safer to be a silver bull than a gold bull – another of my early Feb utterances.Miners to Gold Big Picture ViewThis gold sectoral ratio made an encouraging rebound last week, but isn‘t internally as strong as it might appear, because the juniors (GDXJ ETF) aren‘t yet outperforming the seniors (GDX ETF), which had been the case in early 2021 and late in Feb as well – right till I sounded the alarm bells on Feb 23-24. This is precisely why I was not bullish in tone at all in the past week, as gold hadn‘t been acting as strongly now as it had been right before the Feb 22 upswing that I called. And I am missing this ingredient at the moment still.SummaryStock bulls stepped in and repaired much of Thursday‘s damage, flipping the balance of power as more even at the moment. While the medium-term factors favor the bulls, this correction is slated to go on still for longer, as all eyes are on tech (big names) as the deciding sector.Gold still remains acting weak around the lower border of its support zone, silver is refusing to decline more, and signs overall favoring a rebound, are appearing. It‘s still a mixed bag though, with especially gold being far from out of the woods yet.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

How to Join the Mining Party… Before it Ends

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.03.2021 18:39
Forget gold and silver for a moment. Do you hear the music? Yes, it’s coming from the mining ETFs club. But how long will the party last?And more importantly, why miners, you may ask? Because miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally.After closing only $0.10 below my initial downside target of $31 on Mar. 1 , the GDX ETF could be ripe for an upward revision. Able to ignore much of last week’s chaos, the GDX ETF’s outperformance of gold and silver signals that the tide has likely turned.Please see below:Figure 1To that point, I warned on Mar. 1 that help was on the way:The GDX ETF has garnered historical support at roughly $29.52. The level also coincides with the early-March high, the mid-April low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, a corrective upswing to ~$33/$34 could be the miners’ next move.Furthermore, after alerting subscribers on Mar. 4 – writing that when gold moves to $1,692, we’ll automatically open long positions in the miners – the GDX ETF ended Friday’s (Mar. 5) session up by 3.2% from my initial entry of ~$30.80 - $31. Thus, from here, the GDX ETF has roughly 3.8% to 7.0% upside (as of Friday’s close) before the $33/$34 levels signals that the momentum has run its course.For now, though, positioning for more upside offers a solid risk-reward proposition . Prior to the initial decline, miners were weak relative to gold . However, after outperforming on Mar. 5, their steady hand was a sign of short-term strength. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the size and shape of the current price action actually mirrors what we witnessed back in April.Please see below:Figure 2 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), GDX and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart Comparison – 2020For context, I wrote on Mar. 5:Miners stopped their decline practically right in my target area, which I based on the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 2020 highs and lows. Moreover, the proximity of the $31 level corresponds to the 2019 high and the 2016 high. Since so many support levels coincide at the same price (approximately), the latter is likely to be a very strong support. Moreover, the RSI was just close to 30, which corresponded to short-term buying opportunities quite a few times in the past.In addition, a short-term upswing could provide a potential pathway to $35 – as this level also corresponds with the GDX ETF’s late-February high, its monthly declining resistance line and its 50-day moving average. The abundance of resistance levels – combined with the fact that an upswing would further verify the GDX ETF’s breakdown below the neckline of its potential head and shoulders pattern – should keep the upward momentum in check.Over the medium-term, the potential head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes above – also deserves plenty of attention.For context, I wrote previously:Ever since the mid-September breakdown below the 50-day moving average , the GDX ETF was unable to trigger a substantial and lasting move above this MA. The times when the GDX was able to move above it were also the times when the biggest short-term declines started.(…)The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder (figure 2 - both marked with green) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Due to the uncanny similarity between the two green rectangles, I decided to check what happens if this mirror-similarity continues. I used purple, dashed lines for that. There were two important short-term price swings in April 2020 – one shows the size of the correction and one is a near-vertical move higher.Copying these price moves (purple lines) to the current situation, we get a scenario in which GDX (mining stocks) moves to about $31 and then comes back up to about $34. This would be in perfect tune with what I wrote previously. After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, stocks’ day of reckoning is coming . And it might be very, very close.As I explained previously, based on the similarities to the 1929 and 2008 declines, it could be the case that the precious metals sector declines for about 3 months after the general stock market tops. And it seems that we won’t have to wait long for the latter. In fact, the next big move lower in stocks might already be underway, as the mid-Feb. 2021 top could have been the final medium-term top.In conclusion, the gold miners should continue to glisten as oversold conditions buoy them back to the $33-$35 range. Due to the GDX ETF’s recent strength, combined with gold rallying off of the lows on Mar. 5, the PMs could enjoy a profitable one-week (or so) party. However, with the celebration likely to be short-lived, it’s important to keep things in perspective. While this week’s performance may elicit superficial confidence, medium-term clouds have already formed. As a result, positioning for an extended rally offers more risk than reward.(We normally include the "Letters to the Editor" section in the full version of Gold & Silver Trading Alerts only, but today I decided to include it also in this free version of the full (about 10x bigger than what you just read) analysis, so that you get the idea of how this part of the analysis looks like. It might be quite informative too. Enjoy:)Letters to the EditorQ: Could you update your thoughts regarding physical [gold and silver] for those looking to acquire additional positions - specifically, what do you think premiums and availability are going to look like when/if spot goes a $100 or $200 down from here? By way of example, I bought some U.S. gold buffaloes at $1854 spot at $1954. Those same coins at $1710 spot are still around $1930, if there are any to be found.A: It’s a tough call, because the premium values don’t follow the technical patterns. Still, based on the analogy to situations that seem similar to what we saw recently, it seems that we can indeed say something about the likely physical values close to the likely $1,450 bottom.Figure 43 - Source: didthesystemcollapse.orgThe above chart shows the eBay premium for 1 oz Gold American Eagle coins over the spot gold price.In April 2020, the premium spiked at about 14%. It was likely even higher in March (we don’t have the direct data), but the volatility back then was bigger than it is right now, so it seems that the current premium and the April 2020 premium values are a better proxy for the future bottoming premiums than the March 2020 bottom premium would be. If the volatility increases, one could see the premium at about 15% or so.With gold at about $1,450, the above-mentioned information means Gold American Eagle coins can cost about $1,670.Still, since gold futures prices seem more predictable than the prices of bullion coins, I’d focus on the former even while timing the purchase of the latter.Moreover, please note that I’m planning to focus on buying mining stocks close to the bottom and move to metals only later. The reason is that miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally (just like they did in the first quarter of 2016). The fact that the premium is likely to be high when gold bottoms in a volatile manner is yet another reason for the above. When switching from mining stocks to physical holdings several weeks or months later, one might be buying at a smaller premium over the spot, and also after having gained more on miners than on the metals. Of course, the above is just my opinion, and you can purchase whatever you want – after all, it’s your capital and your investment decisions.Q: Please note that I am glad to see gold moving downwards but I am a little confused – the trading report I just received recommends selling at 1690ish but the mailing previously said 1450ish - please see attached.Could you please investigate and advise.A: If anything in the Gold & Silver Trading Alerts seems confusing, please refer to the “Summary”, the trading/investment positions, and the “Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline” sections for clarification. In this case, we exited the remaining short positions when gold hit $1,693 and almost immediately entered long ones (when gold hit $1,692). We now have long positions in the mining stocks with the plan to exit them in a week or so, and re-enter short positions then, because the next big move is likely to be to the downside (perhaps as low as $1,450 or so). Also, the above is just my opinion, not a recommendation or investment advice.Q: Hi P.R., thanks for the advice on this trend, it’s been an amazing trade.As I’m trading on XAUUSD, are you also able to advise the targets for a gold long entry,or should I wait for the final bottom before opening any longs?A: I’m very happy that you’re making profits thanks to my analyses. While I think that the very short-term (for the next 5 trading days or so) outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks is bullish, I think the targets are more predictable for mining stocks than they are for gold and – especially – silver. Still, this time, the short-term upside target for gold is also relatively clear – at about $1,770. That’s why I put the $1,758 in the “For-your-information target” for gold in the “Summary” section below.Q: Are we looking for the short-term upside move to be 1-5 weeks before the final decline into the 1350-1500 zone? I'm a little unsure of the timing you're laying out.A: I’m looking for the short-term upswing to take place between 1 and 3 weeks – that’s the part of the “Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline” section about it:It seems to me that the initial bottom has either just formed or is about to form with gold falling to roughly $1,670 - $1,680, likely this week.I expect the rebound to take place during the next 1-3 weeks.After the rebound (perhaps to $33 - $34 in the GDX), I plan to get back in with the short position in the mining stocks.In my opinion it’s most likely that this counter-trend rally will take about 1 – 1.5 weeks. Then, I think that the decline to about $1,450 in gold will start.Q: Thank you for sending out the Alert # 2 with the new changes in the Gold and Silver trades today. This is necessary, so please send out the alert once you enter back to the short positions, please.A: I’m happy that you enjoyed this intraday Alert. I will indeed send you – my subscribers – an intraday confirmation that the long positions were closed and when we enter new short positions. Still, please note that we already have binding profit-take exit prices in place, which means that when prices move to the target levels (e.g., GDX to $33.92), the long positions should be automatically closed, and profits should be taken off the table – even without an additional confirmation from me (it takes time for me to write and send the message and then some time usually passes before one is able to act on my message).Q: You have informed us to make the move when the Gold price “REACHES” $1693.00. My question is; Does the word “Reach” mean when the price touches that point, if only for a moment, or does “Reach” mean when it closes the day at or below $1693.00?Thank you for your response to this question.A: “Reaching” a price means the same thing as “touching” the price or “moving to” the price. This means moving to this price level on an intraday basis – even for just one tick . If I mean closing prices, I will specifically describe them as such.For instance, I currently have binding exit positions for the current long position in the mining stocks – and these are exactly the price levels that I have put in my brokerage account as a limit sell order.Q: Please comment on the Hindenburg Omen for stocks:Figure 44 - Source: RefinitivA: Thanks. The Hindenburg omen is not one of the most reliable indicators - even on the above chart, it’s clear that most of the signals were not followed by declines. Please note how many fake initial signals there were before stocks finally declined in 2019 or 2020. There are many other reasons to think that stocks are going to move much lower, though. In the very short-term they could still move higher, but this move could be fake and could turn out to be the right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders top formation.Q: 1) for shorter-term trades such as the potential 10% pop in the GDX, is NUGT better?2) the plan after we re-enter a short trade when the GDX gets to $33/$34 might mean a longer haul before we hit rock bottom . You have mentioned time-scales up to 20 weeks (ish). Due to a longer holding period , would the CFD route be a cheaper route when compared to NUGT? I’m asking in general terms because each provider imposes different fees and I don’t expect you to comment on the fees charged by IG, which is the service I use.I also recognize that NUGT only offers 2 X leverage, whereas CFD’s offer up to five times leverage.Finally, the manner in which you detail the rich tapestry of the economic forces that impact PMs is revealing and educational. I find this all fascinating.I have my own views which can be summed up like this: How many inflationary false-dawns and panics has the bond market had? Ever since 2008, when the FED launched QE, there have been numerous bouts and hissy fits of inflationary expectations that have subsequently sunk like a dodgy soufflé. I think this time is no different and it’s entirely possible the 30-year bond could drop to ZERO. I am in the deflationary camp.How might the 10 year at zero or possibly sub-zero and longer, out on the duration curve to (TLT ETF) dropping to 0.5%, affect the price of gold?Your thoughts as ever, are much appreciatedA: 1) That depends on whether one seeks leverage or not, and how much thereof. Please note that some short-term trades could sometimes become medium-term trades if the market decides to consolidate or move in the other direction before continuing the predicted trend. In this case, non-leveraged instruments are at an advantage over the leveraged ones, because they don’t suffer from the back-and-forth trading as much as the leveraged ones do.If one’s desired exposure to the GDX ETF wouldn’t exceed the cash that one dedicated to trading, then in order to have the same exposure one would simply have half of the capital employed in NUGT (which is 2x leveraged). This way, the exposure would be identical, but the NUGT would imply additional risk of losing more capital if the trade takes much longer than planned and/or if the price moves adversely first.Please note that there is also an additional way to gain leverage (it’s not available for everyone, though) and that is through the use of margin on one’s brokerage account. I’d prefer to use margin for the GDX before aiming to gain leverage through NUGT.In other words, I’d first use more cash for GDX before I’d go into NUGT. If I wanted to have even bigger exposure than the one achieved by employing more capital to GDX, I would then consider using margin, and then I would consider using NUGT if I still wanted to get more leverage.There might be some traders who would seek to combine both for even bigger leverage (buying NUGT on margin), but this is definitely not something that I’d recommend to most people. In fact, it seems that in many cases, sticking to the GDX would be a good way to go.2) I think I already replied to the first part of your question (NUGT vs. CFD) above. Also, for other people reading this reply – please note that CFDs (contracts for difference) are not available in many areas, including the USA and Canada.I’m glad to read that you enjoy reading my explanations of the current situation in the markets (precisely, my opinions on it).Real interest rates are one of the most important drivers for gold (along with the USD Index), so a drop in the 10-year rates to zero or sub-zero levels would likely be very beneficial for the gold prices.Figure 45Also, based on the pace at which the rates have rallied recently, they might be topping here, but… There was no decline in the previous 40 years that was as big as what we saw between 2018 and 2020. Consequently, the corrective upswing might be bigger as well. Also, the above chart is not necessarily the scale that is big enough to make very long-term conclusions.Figure 46Over the past centuries, whenever the rates fell very low, they then rallied back up with vengeance. After WW2, it theoretically would have been a “good idea” to keep stimulating the economy with low rates – and yet, they soared. Right now, the monetary authorities strive to be very dovish and keep pumping liquidity into the system, and yet the rates are rallying anyway.So, while the analogy to the previous years – or the past few decades – suggests that the rally in the rates might be over or close to being over, the very long-term chart suggests otherwise.To make the situation even more complicated, if the stock market has already topped in February, and we have already entered the Kondratiev winter cycle, it means that we can theoretically expect the rates to fall, then rise in a credit crunch, and then fall much lower.All in all, the outlook for the interest rates is anything but simple and clear. Perhaps what we see right now already IS the credit crunch and the 10-year rates are on their way to above 2% - after all, they used to return above their 200-day moving average after the previous medium-term declines. It seems to me that the move above 2% in the 10-year rates could correspond with gold’s decline below $1,500.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis: US Dollar In Bullish Continuation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.03.2021 11:17
EURUSD tumbles in falling channelThe US dollar continues to push forward as prospects of a strong US recovery take root.After conceding the intermediate support of 1.1950, the euro came under renewed pressure and is now sliding towards the daily support level of 1.1750.A bullish RSI divergence and the price testing the lower band of the bearish channel suggest that a rebound is overdue. A better-than-expected GDP data from the eurozone might just give the single currency the relief it needs. Though the upper band (1.1970) will be a tough nut to crack.AUDUSD remains under bearish trendlineThe Aussie might not be out of the woods yet as market fever over the greenback is still in full swing. The pair is heading towards the daily support level of 0.7580, a critical level where a failure to bounce could signal an upcoming reversal.A fairly neutral RSI says there is still room for a retracement in the next few hours.The price action is then likely to go sideways between the support and the bearish trendline (0.7720) before a breakout would lead to a new direction.SPX 500 rallies back from daily supportThe S&P 500 climbed back after the US Senate passed the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. The demand zone around 3700 from the daily timeframe has seen strong bids.On the hourly chart, a bullish MA cross and a rally above 3845 have prompted the short side to cover. 3900 is the immediate resistance and its breach could resume the upward movement.An overbought RSI might signal a potential pullback but as long as the index stays above 3730, the bias remains bullish.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

9 March 2021

Stock market news Stock market news 09.03.2021 11:47
Savills: 2021 will see the stars align for sale and leaseback transactionsSale and leaseback transactions (S&LB) in Europe reached a total of €8.4bn in 2020, 8.5% higher than the five year average, with the trend set to continue into 2021 according to Savills. Also in Poland, Savills sees an increasing number of companies willing to take the sale and lease back route mainly in industrial and retail sectors.Data from the international real estate advisor shows that although the 2020 volume was 10% lower than 2019, historically there has been a significant correlation between property prices and S&LB activity, which translates into an increasing number of S&LB transactions when yields are moving in. This current period is indeed an ideal time for S&LB transactions to take place as rising prices trigger owner-occupiers’ interest in selling their properties, whilst investment opportunities are scarce on the market.Oli Fraser Looen, Joint Head of Regional Investment Advisory, EMEA, Savills, commented: “The increased need for businesses to find liquidity to shore up balance sheets or make acquisitions in the current and post-Covid environment, will help S&LB transactions to become increasingly popular during 2021. Our view is that H2 2021 will see a record number of corporate-led S&LB deals. These sales will be welcomed by the increasing wall of capital which will be hunting long income assets as they try to match liabilities.”Logistics leadsIn terms of sector breakdowns, logistics popularity continues to gain momentum off the back of rising e-commerce. Lydia Brissy, Director, European Research, Savills, commented: “With limited product on the market, strong competition has naturally driven down yields by around 312 bps to as low as 3% in core locations, over the past 10 years. With strategic footprint, omnichannel improvement and the integration of automation processes to consider, many ecommerce operators are having to inject large investment volumes to maintain market share. As such, a S&LB transaction makes strong commercial sense for some logistics owner-occupiers.”As a result, European logistics S&LB activity increased regularly since the end of 2013 and reached a record level last year, €3.4bn, approximately 15% higher than in 2019. At the same time, the overall logistics investment market increased by 4% only, confirming that limited supply is restraining the overall activity in the sector.In terms of other sectors, retail S&LB transactions were largely confined to supermarket and hypermarket retailers with the grocery sector proving its resilience during country lockdowns. Such resilience has caught investors’ attention seeking to maintain their retail exposure resulting in the compression of supermarket yields. On average across Europe, prime supermarket yields moved in by 14bps between 2019 and 2020 whilst during the same period, prime shopping centre yields softened by 39bps. For offices, despite a strong prime yield compression recorded since 2009 (270bps on average across the major European cities), office S&LB has only risen slightly and sporadically since 2013. Nevertheless last year the office S&LB investment totalled €3.4bn.Lydia Brissy continued: “The office sector has gone through a reassessment of its fundamental role over the past 12 months, leaving most office occupiers in a status quo situation. Although S&LB is one potential exit towards flexibility, potential investors will be wanting to asses the combination of location, occupier sector and covenant in order to consider a purchase.”Location location locationIn terms of geographical spread, it was France that led the charge, by a number of large transactions , including most notably the sale of the future large office scheme named Harmony located in La Garenne-Colombes, which will be the headquarters of Engie.In Germany, which follows as the second biggest S&LB beneficiary, the volume was predominantly boosted the sale of the Hamburg Commercial Bank HQ bought buy Signa Holding and the sale of Randome House from Bertelsmann to Allianz Real Estate.In the Netherlands, the S&LB volume nearly tripled last year, predominantly due to many sales from logisticians, including notably the sale from DSV of a 115,0000 warehouse to Savills IM. Nevertheless, the sale & leaseback of the Jumbo supermarket portfolio was the largest deal recorded last year.In the UK, S&LB activity was also mainly driven by the logistics sector although supermarket brands including most notably Waitrose and LondonMetric have also been active in selling.Focus on PolandLukasz Frominski, Associate Director, Investment, Savills Poland, commented: Over the past two years we have observed that owner occupiers in Poland are becoming more educated in understanding and in turn pursuing a SLB strategy. They see the benefit in this solution to help them boost and grow their business faster in our dynamically expanding and developing economy. Also professional net lease investors are conducting deals in a fast track mode that is particularly attractive to companies who otherwise have to deal with often slow performing banks. To succeed the property owner needs a good story, a strong covenant and attractive real estate.John Palmer, Director, Head of Industrial Investment, Savills Poland, adds: Despite the downward pressure on yields across all jurisdictions, Poland still benefits from a significant and appealing pricing gap compared to Western European opportunities. Therefore a purchaser acquiring a S&L in Poland can purchase an investment, often with the same named corporate covenant found on similar deals in Western Europe, whilst delivering significantly better returns to the ultimate investors.-ends-For further information, please contact:Isabel Stoddart, Savills press office Tel: +44 (0) 7580 587746Jan Zaworski, Communication Manager Tel: +48 (0) 666 363 302Founded in the UK in 1855, Savills is one of the world's leading property agents with 600 offices across the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services.Should you not wish to receive Savills press releases, please email us at: kontakt.rodo@savills.pl. Click here for our Privacy Policy.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

STIMULUS AND CONSUMERS ARE THE KEYS TO FURTHER US/GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY – PART II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2021 13:46
This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/stimulus-and-consumers-are-the-keys-to-further-us-global-economic-recovery-part-i/. In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors.   The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function.  We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before... and that changes certain things.The Components Of A Frenzied Global MarketThe first and most notable change is to create volatility at levels we have really never seen before.  The average daily price range on the QQQ or SPY charts is more than 3x historical price range levels.  This simple fact shows that a 1% price range, which used to be considered a moderately large price range for the price to move, is now considered a below normal range.  This new level of volatility has applied to many of the largest SPY and NASDAQ-related stock symbols over the past few years as capital was deployed into various sectors with increasing speed and volition.We profit from volatility by using non-directional options trading strategies.Watch our webinar on How To Become An Options Strategy Master now!The US and global central banks have continued to deploy easy money policies since the 2008-09 Housing/Credit crisis which has perpetuated a Roaring-20s type of mentality throughout the world.  Even though we could point out certain nations that are underperforming economically, generally the world has seen an unprecedented rise in credit, debt, and associated spending capabilities over the past 10+ years.  This level of unusual economic expansion comes with certain consequences, similar to the expansion that led up to the 2008-09 Housing/Credit crisis.It also has to be noted that COVID-19 has really altered the way consumers are engaging in the economy right now.  Online, stay-at-home, avoid outside risks type of activities have really become the new normal. Many sociologists continue to suggest consumers may be slower to move back into old economic habits (pre-COVID-19 spending habits).  This change in how people perceive risks and adopt new economic processes will likely lead to a rise in digital productivity, the adoption of technology solutions, and a change of spending habits, which could prompt a much bigger transition for certain market sectors that have been overlooked recently.Watch Chris and Neil Present at The Mad Hedge Traders and Investors Summit - Click to Register for FREE!One thing that has certainly benefited from COVID-19 is the number of new investors/traders plying their skills (and hard-earned cash) in the markets.  We've never seen anything like this explosive growth in retail market participation over the past 20+ years.  The closest we've come to this level of retail trader participation in the equities and financial markets was in 1998~99 during the height of the DOT COM bubble.  This incredible consumer participation in the global equities trends/trading has helped propel many US major indexes/sectors to incredible heights – and it may not end any time soon.The following Monthly ratio chart, comparing the growth in the QQQ, SPY, and GOLD since January 1, 2009 (the anchor price) highlights how the frenzy of investing really started to accelerate after 2012 and began to move into a parabolic trend in 2016.  If you follow the MAGENTA QQQ ratio after the vertical dateline on this chart, you will see how early 2017 started a dramatic acceleration in volatility and trending as the QQQ accelerated higher by more than +186%.  Meanwhile, the SPY, which was somewhat overlooked throughout this rally phase, moved higher by only +85%.Where is the Consumer?  Has The Consumer Really Retreated Because Of COVID-19?One prime example of this frenzy is this recent Yahoo! Finance story about burned Banksy Art which sold for over $390,000 as a Non-Fungible Token. The idea that anyone would buy a burned piece of art for this price shows that money has turned into a game for some people.  The gamification of wealth has likely transitioned into global social thinking in ways that we have not even considered yet.Even though we've highlighted how the global equity/financial markets have rallied considerably over the past 5+ years, we still need to see the consumer reenter the economy in a more traditional sense. This M1 Velocity of Money chart shows that after the 2009 peak, the velocity of money, the rate at which money is exchanged within an economy, has collapsed to levels we have not seen in 60+ years, and quite possibly below levels relative to the Great Depression (1930s).So, what's happening in the world right now to present these types of charts/data?  How can the world be flush with capital/cash and the data show that the consumer is still actively engaged in purchasing various items, which include very active engagement in the global equity markets and speculative trading positions, while the M1 Velocity of Money data shows an incredible collapse after COVID-19 hit?The answer is simple.  The US Federal Reserve has pushed more cash into the global economy over the past 10+ years than at any time in history (more than $16 Trillion since 2009).  Prior to that date the total amount of capital/debt the US Fed only pushed a total of $10.6 Trillion into the economy over a 40-year time span.  There is nearly 3x the total number of US dollars floating around the globe right now than at any time since prior to the 1950s.Eventually, we are certain that, this extended cash will translate into GDP growth – which will strengthen the Velocity of Money ratio over time.  What it will take is for the economy and the consumer to transition into a new form of expansion related to the post-COVID-19/post Technology euphoria that is currently taking place.Over the next 20 to 30+ years, we are going to see some very big trends in various sectors and commodities.  The global central banks have pushed so much capital out into the world that, once it finds its true economic purpose, we believe the function of this capital will be deployed into various economic components in ways we have not even considered yet.  New industry, new forms of consumer products, and consumer participation will likely evolve where capital can be put to use to improve the GDP levels.  Cryptos may be the start, a stepping stone, toward a much more dynamic solution for how capital is used and deployed within the global marketplace.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.In Part III of this research article, my team and I will continue to explore the future possibilities and make some suggestions as to how you can prepare for these big trends right now.  Remember, this is a longer-term outlook of opportunities for traders/investors.  The real gains related to this research will come 5 to 10+ years out into the future if you are able to identify how and where capital is being deployed for gains. Have a great day!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Bitcoin, how not to lose

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.03.2021 14:01
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Conservatively Bullish:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2021.One of the best ways to keep one’s emotions in check is reducing position size. It allows for accepting risk and, as such seeing the market for what it is. Looking at the monthly chart above, this size reduction on new entries is also in accordance with the risk at these more extended levels. We see prices progressing higher, but entry risk once the price has moved up this far aligns to our risk control parameters from a psychological perspective and a statistical one. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Steep and steady:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2021.This weekly chart shows price behavior even more clearly. For nearly three years, Bitcoin prices meandered around the mean (yellow line). Last year in October, Bitcoin prices broke out of this range. Already four weeks later, in November 2020, prices extended above typical standard deviation levels. Nothing atypical for Bitcoin, which loves sharp advances. And again, we do not see prices decline from here rapidly. However, what is affected are stop levels and entry probabilities, which makes the astute trader behave more risk-averse both in exposure size and trading frequency.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Bitcoin, how not to lose:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 8th, 2021.The green arrows on the daily chart show our long entries last week. We posted these in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Each of these entries had a position size reduced by thirty-five percent. We were also able to finance all three trades (=take partial profits shortly after entry based on our Quad exit strategy to eliminate risk). For now, we are holding remainder small position sizes for possible price advances without a skewed view due to the more than usual conservative approach (= minimal position size).Bitcoin, how not to lose:It takes quite some experience to judge oneself on emotions of over- self-confidence. If you had an excellent run on investments, take some money off the table. Wire it from your brokerage. Consider self-gifting, vacation, or otherwise reward yourself. Make sure your daily self-assessment routine contains this checkpoint of possible over-confidence. Reduce size for upcoming trades and pat yourself on the shoulder for a job well done.You could give more considerable amounts of profits up due to negligence and being complacent, not abiding as diligent to your trading rules, as usual. This can be especially painful in these heightened emotional states. Consequently, this causes even more dramatic setbacks trying to brush early warning signals of over trading and under-selecting signal quality off and trying to prove yourself. Like the market, you need to take a breath, celebrate, and return light footed on half size for the next run-up.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold Drops below $1,700, while Senate Passes Biden’s Plan

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.03.2021 14:14
Gold remains inert to President Biden’s large and hazardous economic plan, and ended up dropping below $1,700.President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus is coming! On Saturday, the U.S. Senate passed the American Rescue Plan on a party-line 50-49 vote. This means that after the House’s vote on Tuesday, Biden could sign the bill into law soon, and those $1,400 payments to most Americans could start to go out as soon as this month.The final bill includes not only $400 billion in checks of $1,400 to most Americans, but also $300 a week in extended unemployment benefits, and $350 billion in aid to state and local governments.The American Rescue Plan would be one of the largest stimulus packages in U.S. history. It would also be one of the most frivolous and superfluous economic programs. There is simply no need for such a large plan. Please take a look at the chart below.As one can see, U.S. personal income has increased during the pandemic, not decreased. Once again, people are now receiving higher income than one year ago. So, Biden’s stimulus with another round of $1,400 checks is not economically or socially justified.Indeed, the U.S. economy is already recovering. On Friday (Mar. 5), we got surprisingly good data about the American labor market , that showed the economy added 379,000 jobs in February, much above expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has slightly decreased further, as one can see in the chart below. Employment is still down by 9.5 million, or 6.2 percent, from the pre-pandemic level seen one year ago, but additional unemployment benefits or plain checks will not help bring people back into employment – in fact, the effect may turn out to be the reverse.Hence, Biden’s fiscal stimulus will bring little benefit to the economy, while significantly expanding the federal debt and risking overheating the economy. Indeed, the plan is estimated to increase the already high public debt (see the chart below) by an additional ten percentage points as a share of GDP .Implications for GoldWhat does this all mean for gold prices? From the fundamental point of view, Biden’s plan should be positive for the yellow metal. This is because it can increase inflation in the long-run, if people finally decide to spend all the money they got from Uncle Sam. It will not happen in the immediate future, as households will initially save the received payments, and some of them will repay their debts, but they are likely to spend more this year, to compensate for curbed consumption in 2020.However, whether Biden’s plan turns out inflationary or not, it will expand the already mammoth public debt. It should weaken the position of the greenback and increase the odds for a debt crisis or paying out this debt through inflation or financial repression. The higher the debt, the more difficult it will be for the Fed to normalize interest rates (welcome to the debt trap , my friends). All these factors should support gold prices in the long run.However, gold remains deaf to Biden’s disharmonious symphony. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the yellow metal has declined below the important level of $1,700 last week. It seems that the fiscal stimulus (together with the rollout of vaccinations and the economic recovery) has so far strengthened the risk appetite among investors who don’t focus on long-term consequences of the fiscal stimulus.This may change one day, but the sentiment in the gold market is clearly negative right now, and the fundamentals are more positive. The fundamentals may come to the fore in the end. However, gold may struggle further, especially if real interest rates go up again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Stocks Shaking Off Weak Tech As Gold Bottoms?

Stocks Shaking Off Weak Tech As Gold Bottoms?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2021 15:28
Stocks spiked higher, but not before going sideways to down prior on the day. And the close to the session hasn‘t been convincing either – does it count as a reversal? In my view, we haven‘t seen one yesterday really, regardless of this correction not being over just yet. There are still some cracks I tweeted yesterday about in need closing first, such as the worrying corporate bonds performance, manifest in the HYG:SHY ratio, or the tech searching for the bottom (it‘s $NYFANG precisely). Quoting from yesterday‘s extensive analysis spanning beyond stocks, metals and the Fed:(…) Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?Stocks are well positioned to keep absorbing the rising nominal rates. What has been the issue, was the extraordinarily steep pace of such move, leaving long-term Treasuries trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. While they can snap back over the next 1-2 weeks, the 10y Treasury bond yield again breaking 1.50% is a testament to the Fed not willing to do anything at the moment. Little does the central bank care about commodities moves, when it didn‘t consider any market moves thus far as unruly.Gold market offered proof of being finally ready for a rebound, and it‘s visible in the closing prices of the yellow metal and its miners. Being more than a one day occurence, supported by yesterday presented big picture signals, the market confirmed my yesterday‘s suggestion of an upcoming gold. It appears we‘ll get more than a few days to assess the legs this rally is made of, facilitating nimble charting of the waters ahead my usual way:(…) Just as I was calling out gold as overheated in Aug 2020 and prone to a real soft patch, some signs of internal strength in the precious metals sector were present this Feb already. And now as we have been testing for quite a few days the first support in my game plan, we‘re getting once again close to a bullish formation that I called precisely to a day, and had been banging the bearish gold drum for the following two days, anticipating the downside that followed. Flexibility and broad horizons result in accentuated, numerous other portfolio calls – such as long Bitcoin at $32,275 or long oil at $58 practically since the great return with my very own site. We‘re now on the doorstep of visible, positive price outperformance in the gold miners (GDX ETF) as gold prices didn‘t break the higher bullish trend by declining through both the Mar 4 presented supports of my game plan. As I wrote yesterday, if prices move higher from here, they have simply bounced off support, especially given the accompanying signs presented, not the least of which is the dollar getting back under pressure. Make no mistake, the greenback isn‘t in a bull market – it‘s merely consolidation before plunging to new 2021 lows. I have not been presenting any USDX declining resistance lines and breakout arguments, because prices can be both above such a line, and lower than at the moment of „breakout“ at the same time – ultimately, rising and declining supports and resistances are a play on the speed of the move, where pure inertia / deceleration / reprieve doesn‘t break the prior, higher trend. And as I called in summer 2020 the dollar to roll over and keep plunging, that‘s still what‘s unfolding.How does it tie in to commodities and stocks? We‘re not at extreme moves in either, and I see copper, iron, oil, agrifoods as benefiting from the reflationary efforts greatly. Similarly and in spite of the $NYFANG travails, it would be ill-advised to search for stock market tops now (have you seen how well the Dow Industrials is doing?) – no, we‘re not approaching a top that I would need to call the way I did in the early Sep buying climax. This is still the time to be running with the herd, and not against it – you can ignore the noise to the contrary for both the S&P 500 and commodities have a good year ahead. As for precious metals, we might have seen the bottom already – and in any case by the current shape of things, I don‘t see it occuring quarters ahead and hundreds buck lower.Bringing up the constant reevaluation of position‘s rationale, market reactions and narratives:(…) It‘s the markets‘ discounting mechanism of the future that counts – just as gold cleared the deflationary corona crash in psring 2020, just as it disregarded the tough Fed tone of 2H 2018, just as it sprang vigorously higher in early 2016 stunning bears in all three cases with sharp losses over many months, or just as stocks stopped declining well before economic news got better in April 2020 or March 2009. Make no mistake, the markets consider transitioning to a higher inflation environment already now (the Fed timidly says that reopening will spike it, well, temporarily they say), when inflation expectations are still relatively low, yet peeking higher based on the Fed‘s own data. Gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – and it‘s one of the scenarios that it has just happened, especially if gold convincingly closed back above $1,720 without undue delay.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWe have seen two intraday reversals to the downside yesterday, yet I think the effects would prove a temporary obstacle to the bulls only. Such candlestick patterns usually slow down the advance, but don‘t end it – and that‘s consistent with my yesterday‘s words of most of the downside being already in. Once the 3,900 zone is confidently passed, the bears would have missed the chance to reach below Thursday‘s lows.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) still ilustrate ongoing fragility for they have plunged below their Feb lows. This correction doesn‘t appear to be as totally over just yet, also given the sectoral picture that I am showing you next.Put/Call Ratio and VolatilityOption players clearly aren‘t concerned by yesterday‘s S&P 500 price action, and the VIX is painting a similarly neutral picture – just as the sentiment overall. Very good, we‘re primed to go higher next, from a starting position far away from the extreme greed levels.Technology and ValueThe sectoral divergence continues, and tech is still the weakest link in the whole S&P 500 rebound. The big $NYFANG names, the Teslas of this world, are the biggest drag, and not until these carve out a sustainable bottom (this needn‘t happen at the 200-day moving average really), I can declare this correction as getting close to over. It‘s the cyclicals, it‘s value stocks that is pulling the 500-strong index ahead, with financials (XLF ETF), industrials (XLI ETF) and energy (XLE ETF) leading the charge.Treasuries and DollarNominal, long-term Treasury rates have at least slowed their quickening Feb pace, even in the face of no action plan on the table by the Fed – the dollar moved higher on the realization next, and it‘s my view that once new Fed intervention is raised, it would have tremendous implications for the dollar, and last but not least – the precious metals.Gold and SilverFinally, this is the much awaited sign, enabling me to sound some bullish tone in gold again – the miners are outperforming the yellow metal with more than a daily credibility, which I view as key given the lackluster gold price action before yesterday (absence of intraday rebounds coupled with more downside attempts). It would turn stronger once the gold juniors start outperforming the seniors, which is not the case yet.Coupled with the 4-chart big picture view from yesterday, it‘s my view that the gold market is laying the groundwork for its turning:(…) Real rates are negative, nominal rates rose fast, and inflation expectations have been trending higher painfully slowly, not reflecting the jump in commodities or the key inflation precursor (food price inflation) just yet – these are the factors pressuring gold as the Fed‘s brinkmanship on inflation goes on. Once the Fed moves to bring long-term rates under control through intervention – hello yield curve control or at least twist – then real rates would would be pressured to drop, which would be a lifeline for gold – the real questions now are how far gold is willing to drop before that, and when that Fed move would happen. Needless to add as a side note regarding the still very good economic growth (the expansion is still young), stagflation is what gold would really love.Silver is carving out a bottom while both copper and platinum are turning higher already – these are That‘s the essence of one of my many profitable plays presented thus far – long silver short gold spread – clearly spelled out as more promising than waiting for gold upswing to arrive while the yellow metals‘ bullish signs have been appearing through Feb only to disappear, reappear, and so on.SummaryStocks haven‘t seen a real reversal yesterday, but more backing and filling till the tech finds bottom, appears due. The medium-term factors favor the bulls, but this correction isn‘t over yet, definitely not in time.Now, gold can show some strength – and silver naturally even more. The signs overall favoring a rebound, are appearing with increasing clarity for the short term, and the nearest weeks will show whether we have made a sustainable bottom already, or whether the $1,670 zone will get tested thoroughly. The bulls have the upper hand now.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Gold, Miners: How Long Will Short-Term Rally Last?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.03.2021 16:45
Gold rallied, gold miners soared to new March highs and the USD Index finally moved lower; and most likely, these price moves are not yet over.The precious metals market finally moved yesterday (Mar. 9) after providing us with bullish indications for quite a few days. Let’s jump right into charts and examine the details, starting with the part of the precious metals market that showed particular strength – mining stocks.Figure 1 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Even though gold moved lower in early March, gold miners stopped declining after reaching my target area based several techniques – most importantly the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2020 rally, and the previous lows and highs. Just as miners’ relative weakness had previously heralded declines for the entire precious metals sector, their strength meant that a rally was about to start. And that’s just what we saw yesterday (Mar. 9).Ultimately, it seems that the above corrections will result in the GDX ETF moving to about $34 or so.The resistance levels in the $34 - $35 area are provided by:The late-February 2020 highThe rising neck level of the previously completed head and shoulders patternThe analogy to how big miners’ correction was in April (assuming that the mirror similarity continues)The declining blue resistance lineThe 50-day moving averageAdditionally, please note that the last few local tops were accompanied by RSI at about 50. The latter is currently below 45, suggesting that this rally has more potential, but that it’s not particularly extreme.The confirmation that the top is indeed in might come from the volume. Please note that the last three times when we saw really important tops, the GDX rallied on particularly strong volume. If we see something like that within the next 5 trading days or so (quite likely on Monday or close to it), we’ll have an even bigger chance of catching the reversal.Consequently, the GDX is likely to form a top in the above-described area.After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, the day of reckoning for stocks is coming , and it might be very, very close.As I explained previously, based on the similarities to the 1929 and 2008 declines, it could be the case that the precious metals sector declines for about three months after the general stock market tops. And it seems that we won’t have to wait long for the latter. In fact, the next big move lower in stocks might already be underway, as the mid-Feb. 2021 top could have been the final medium-term top.Let’s consider what the GDX and GLD did on an intraday basis yesterday.Figure 2 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Gold ETF (GLD) ComparisonAs I already wrote, mining stocks rallied to new monthly highs, and the above 4-hour chart (each candlestick represents 4 hours of trading) makes it crystal-clear that the late-February bottom was the moment after which miners stopped declining and started to trade sideways. Gold (here: the GLD ETF, which I’m using to have an apples-to-apples comparison – both ETFs trade on the same exchange) continued to decline in March. Well, to be precise, miners did form new yearly lows in March, and we went long almost right at one of those intraday lows , but the moves were not significant enough to really change anything.So, since miners no longer wanted to decline, and there were only two other things left for them to do: either nothing or rally.They had been doing nothing for several days, due to the lack of bullish leadership in gold. They just got this leadership yesterday, and they soared.Now, let’s keep in mind what I wrote in yesterday’s intraday Alert – namely, that mining stocks tend to rally particularly well in the initial part of the upswing, and then they underperform during the final part of the rally . So, when gold is above $1,750 or so, miners might already be rallying to a limited degree. Consequently, miners might rally above $34.27, but that is far from being certain. They might actually rally slightly less – perhaps to exactly $34 or so.I applied the Fibonacci retracement levels to the above chart, but I actually used them as Fibonacci extensions. My current upside target for gold is at about $1,770 (which corresponds to about $166 in the GLD ETF) and it’s at about $34 for mining stocks (GDX ETF). The Fibonacci extensions emphasize that if both targets were to be reached, then it means that gold so far rallied (intraday) about half of its entire rally, while mining stocks rallied (intraday) about 61.8% of their entire rally. This perfectly fits miners’ tendency to outperform in the initial part of a given move, which makes both price targets more reliable.Having said that, let’s move to gold.Figure 3 - COMEX Gold FuturesGold rallied strongly after bottoming right in the middle of my target area and after moving almost right to its June 2020 bottom, and after almost doubling its initial January decline. Yesterday’s rally also meant invalidation of the brief breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire 2020 rally. Thus, the very short-term trend is up.Please keep in mind that the upswing might be relatively short-lived – perhaps lasting only one week or so. There’s a triangle-vertex-based reversal point on Monday, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see an interim top at that time, especially considering that:The triangle-vertex-based turning points have been working particularly well in the recent past – they marked the January and February tops.The corrective upswings during this medium-term decline (especially in mining stocks) often took about a week to complete – at least the easy part of the upswing took a week.The USD Index has been rallying relentlessly – just like in 2018 – in the last couple of days, but a quick pullback would not be surprising. In fact, it seems that one is already underway.Figure 4 - USD Index (DX.F)On March 8, the USD Index had closed above its lowest daily closing price of August 2020 (92.13), but yesterday, it closed back below this resistance. This means that we just saw an invalidation of the breakout – which is a bearish sign for the short term.How low could the USD Index move during this pullback? Not particularly low, as the similarity to 2018 implies a rather unbroken rally. The February 2021 high of 91.6 seems to be a quite likely target, but we might see the USDX move a bit lower as well – perhaps to one of the classic Fibonacci retracements based on the recent upswing – lowest of them (the 61.8% one) being at about 90.8.This pullback might trigger a question about the validity of the analogy to the 2018 rally, which seems to have taken place without any interruptions.Figure 5The analogy seems to remain intact when looking at it from the long-term point of view. Let’s keep in mind the recent decline was a bit sharper and it took less time to complete.The 2017 – 2018 decline took 387 day (between the top and the first low) and then there were 82 days between the initial and the final low (21.19% of the decline).This time, there were 269 days between the top and the first low. Adding 21.19% to this time, points to Feb. 12 as the "proportionately identical" bottom time target. The final bottom formed on Feb. 25 - just 9 trading days away from the analogy-based target. The analogy remains clearly intact.“So, doesn’t it imply that there shouldn’t be any pullbacks until the USD Index rallies above 94? ”No. And this becomes obvious once we zoom in.Figure 6You see, it’s not true that there were no pullbacks during the 2018 rally. There were, but they were simply too small to be visible from the long-term point of view.The first notable pullback took place in early May 2018, and it contributed to a corrective upswing in the precious metals market. To be precise, the USD Index declined after rallying for 56 trading days, but gold rallied earlier – 51 trading days after the USD Index’s final bottom. The USDX’s immediate-top formed 16 trading days after its final bottom, and gold’s bottom formed 10 trading days after the USD’s final bottom.Comparing this to the size of the previous decline in terms of the trading days, it was:51 – 56 trading days / 283 trading days = 18.02% - 19.79%10 – 16 trading days / 283 trading days = 3.53% - 5.65%Now, let’s examine the current situation.Figure 7The preceding decline lasted for 200 trading days and there were 41 – 42 trading days between the final USDX bottom and the short-term reversals in gold and USDX. Comparing this to the final USDX bottom, we get 7 – 8 trading days.Applying the previous percentages to the length of the most recent medium-term decline in the USD Index provides us with the following:18.02% - 19.79% x 200 trading days = ~36 - ~40 trading days3.53% - 5.65% x 200 trading days = ~7 - ~11 trading daysThe above estimation of about 36 – 40 trading days almost perfectly fits the current 41 – 42-day delay, and the estimation of about 7 – 11 trading days almost perfectly fits the current delay of 7 – 8 trading days.In other words, the analogy to the 2018 performance does not only remain intact – it actually perfectly confirms the validity of the current corrective upswing. Once again, it’s very likely just a pullback, not a big trend reversal.Also, please note that back in 2018, the USD Index corrected after moving back above its mid-2017 lows and now we see the analogy to that – the USDX corrects after moving back above its mid-2020 lows. Back in 2017, the USD Index corrected to approximately its previous short-term high (the January 2018 high). Now, the February high is providing strong support at about 91.6 – that’s where this brief correction might end – on an approximate basis.The above perfectly fits the scenario in which the precious metals market rallies on a very short-term basis (likely to about $1,770 in gold and about $34 in GDX), and then resumes its medium-term decline.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Intraday Market Analysis – Dow Jones Reaches New Highs

John Benjamin John Benjamin 12.03.2021 08:29
US 30 surges from daily supportUS Congress’s green light on the $1.9 trillion relief package seems to have put stock markets back on track. This came in as half-expected on the technical side as the index bounced off the year-long bullish trendline on the daily chart.From the hourly perspective, the breakout above the previous high (32050) has triggered a broader rally fuelled by short-coverings.As the RSI shows signs of overheating, a limited pullback might attract more buyers. 32300 near the short-term trendline would be the support to watch for.XAGUSD recovers from key supportLower treasury yields have made the non-yielding metal more attractive, right when buyers bid up the price from its daily support level (24.80).Following the previously mentioned RSI divergence, an indication of a potential reversal, silver saw a limited drop then rallied above the first resistance of 26.20.After a brief consolidation, the price could rise towards the next target around 27.00 as long as it stays above 25.60.To the downside, 24.80 is critical in keeping the bullish sentiment intact.NZDUSD looks for a bullish breakoutThe New Zealand dollar is having its fair share of markets’ renewed affection for risk assets. A rebound from the psychological level of 0.7100, a two-month low has brought the pair to its first hurdle: 0.7270 where strong selling pressure could cap the rally.The kiwi is gathering momentum near the rising trendline as the RSI falls back into the neutral zone. If buyers can overcome this resistance, an extended rally may push the price towards 0.7400.A drop below 0.7160 though could lead to a retest of the daily support.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Marks

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.03.2021 16:12
Stock bulls went right for all time highs yesterday, clearing the 3,900 threshold in this correction – one that is in its very late innings indeed. But the preceding upswing has been sharp, and not all the internals support such a swift recovery, which is why I am still looking for consolidation to strike at any moment.We might be actually experiencing such a daily one right now, as today‘s premarket session has sent S&P 500 futures a few dozen points down. The big picture is though one of of the stock market getting used to rising rates, which are rising in reflection of the economic growth. But what about the snapback short-term rally in long-term Treasuries? It‘s not materializing as the instrument went down again yesterday – unconvincingly bobbing above recent lows. The defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities, reversed yesterday (at a time when technology rose), sending a warning that we‘re about to see higher rates again. Probably not happening as fast as through Feb, but still. Let‘s bring up my recent perspective on high rates, what they are exactly:(…) the „high rates“ we‘re experiencing currently, do not compare to the early 1980s, which underscores the fragility of the current monetary order. The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle. The market will see through this, and the central bank would be forced to move to bring long-term rates down through yield curve control or a twist program, which would break the dollar, drive emerging markets, and not exactly control inflation – real rates would drop like a stone in such a scenario, turning around gold profoundly. But the market knows the Fed isn‘t getting ready to really do anything more than it does right now. Gold rebounded on Tuesday, and the rally took it above $1,730 but the daily reversal is concerning. As I wrote yesterday in the title, the gold bulls can‘t rest – but they are resting, and prices are back at the lower end of the $1,720 volume profile.Assessing the damage in the early stages of today‘s session will clarify whether the rally‘s dynamics are still intact, or not – regardless of today‘s headwinds. Silver isn‘t exactly at its strongest today, and we‘re likely to get soon into the session an idea about where miners‘ strength is. And it‘s more likely that it won‘t be anything to write home about.Let‘s recall my yesterday‘s words, and pick what‘s relevant to the metals:(…) While the Fed is prepping the markets for (temporary, they say) higher inflation readings, gold didn‘t react too bullishly to yesterday‘s mildly positive CPI data – just wait for PPI data which would reflect the surging commodity prices more adequately. At the moment, evaluating the strength and internals of precious metals rebound, is the way to go as we might very well have seen the gold bottom, with the timid $1,670 zone test being all the bears could muster. Time and my dutiful reporting will tell.Commodities are likely to do well in this reflationary phase, and the same goes for its turn to inflation. With precious metals, much depends upon their discounting mechanism‘s timing – when would they start doubting the transitory inflation utterances.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 upswing continues in pretty much a straight line, and the frequency of upper knots raises the probability of a short-term reprieve. Yes, it‘s risk-on, but a little pause would be healthy. Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have moved higher yesterday, mirroring the S&P 500 advance. That‘s encouraging even though the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still visibly lagging behind stocks. The non-confirmation‘s seriousness has though decreased markedly over the two last sessions, pointing to improving internals of the upcoming stock market upleg.Technology and ValueTechnology has been rallying on decreasing volume, also demonstrating a prominent upper knot. If there is one sector where the coming S&P 500 consolidation would originate, it would be here. Value stocks held their own yesterday, in a nod to the high beta reopening trades. I am not looking for VTV to weaken distinctly here.Gold and YieldsThe gold upswing reversed intraday while long-term Treasuries (TLT ETF) hadn‘t really moved in their tight daily range. Erasing much of the overnight selling today, would be probably the most the bulls would be able to achieve today. But even that isn‘t the deciding factor to determine the fate of the recovery off the $1,670 area.Upswing in the BalanceGold miners are still painting a positive picture. They are outperforming gold while silver isn‘t spiking – the white metal is under even more pressure today than gold itself. So, the signs from miners and silver balance each other out to a degree. The whole sectors keeps hanging in the balance after yesterday‘s session. Each day or even hour the bulls don‘t utilize to reverse today‘s setback, is questioning the upswing continuation. Not much to add here as the daily momentum apprears shifting to the bears again.SummaryHaving conquered the 3,900 zone, the S&P 500 is likely to consolidate the gains next. The put/call ratio and volatility are at relatively lower readings, and the next setback for stocks would come from tech again. Not overly dramatic, but a brief challenge still.The gold upswing stalled, and its fate is being decided. Having fallen through the volume profile defined support at $1,720, the bulls objective is to recapture this zone. Tall order..
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Silver, Process over intuition

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.03.2021 11:07
This principle is significant in times like right now where Silver is seeming, say intuitively, trading sideways and might even feel bearish most of the time in this trading range. The truth however is, that Silver is in a major bull run and will be so for quite a while coming.Market manipulation and the fact that the market itself is counterintuitive by nature make continuous entry discipline on low-risk trading especially difficult for beginning traders who try to follow their hunches.Weekly Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, On the move:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 11th, 2021.Looking at the weekly chart above, we see a steep trend leg up. Next, prices meandering through a sideways range. Significant is the latest behavior through the range from the range low to the range high, retracing only moderately through the range when bouncing from the range high to a Fibonacci retracement of 0.38, where it bounced strongly – a clear sign of strength.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Supporting factors:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 11th, 2021.But that isn’t all. Another weekly chart representation also shows that this Fibonacci level is supported by the round number US$25. Here we find a significant supply zone based on our volume analysis tool. Here most transactions have been happening over time at around a price level of US$25.25.In addition the intensity of the price bounce is indicating strength. Price didn’t retest but moved strongly up for a reversal of direction.This “stacking of odds” is part of the process to qualify entries instead of “feeling” that prices might change.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver-Process over intuition:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 11th, 2021.In conclusion, we find that the process-oriented trader has significant evidence for a trend continuation. This is especially drawn from the first leg up with a high likelihood of further advancements and a range break in the near future.The weekly chart above shows through its regression channel why prices can quickly advance towards the upper rim (red upper channel line). There we would take partial profits based on our quad exit strategy whole prices should then increase further from there through time. Prices still near the mean (red dotted line) can also from a mathematical, statistical perspective within reason advance further. What also points towards the overall interest in Silver is the increased volume within the last six months. Shown in the red and turquoise horizontal bars.Silver, Process over intuition:It isn’t practice alone. Only a refined rule set for this process will make it possible to follow one’s own instruction. If there are holes where intuition can step in to make a partial decision, failure is near. Our need to be right (ego) is strong, and it will try to get its needs met. So it might try to lure you into fulfilling your hunch needs by altering money management. Don’t let your subconscious trick you into manipulating your position size because you have intuitions or hunches. Starting with paper trading and growing slowly with a minimal position size is the best bet not to lose one’s shirt in the early years. Constant refinement of your process rules and accepting trading to be a boring endeavor while executing is the way to consistency and riches.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 12th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

History Rhymes: Does USDX’s Uprising Mean Gold’s Climax?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.03.2021 16:48
The yellow metal’s behavior looks more bearish now than it did in 2017-2018. The USDX has a lot of bullets in its chamber, and gold can be riddled with them.Plenty of warning signs on the near-term horizon: The USDX is after a long-tern breakout, traders are reducing net-short positions, and the slightest shift in U.S. dollar sentiment can lead the rest of the herd to follow. If a USDX resurgence is combined with an equity shock, then the precious metals are in for trouble.Last Friday (Mar. 12), we focused quite a bit on the moves in the gold miners and how their related ETFs (GDX and GDXJ) are faring and which will suffer most during the next phase of the decline. We also touched on this subject last Wednesday as well. It was important to shed light on the miners because they’ve been leading the charge in the corrective upswing. I also wanted to explain the Eurozone’s impact on the precious metals and how crucial it is to examine the bigger picture and how the pieces are all connected. Today, let’s shift our attention over to the currency perspective, namely the USDX.The price shape and time analogies are truly remarkable right now. It’s quite often the case that history rhymes, but it’s rare for it to rhyme so closely and clearly to what we now see in the case of the USD Index. And the implications for precious metals investors are profound.On Mar. 8 , I warned that with the USD Index confronting its mid-2020 lows (resistance), a short-term dip could occur in the coming days. But after declining by 0.34% last week, the negativity could be short lived.Case in point: the 2017-2018 analogue is already in full swing, and while short-term dips were part of the historical journey, the USDX could be about to exit its consolidation phase.Please see below:You can also see the similarity between two periods and the technical patterns that they included in the chart below:Even while looking at the price moves for just a second, the size and shape of the 2017-2018 analogue clearly mirrors the 2020-current price action . Although this time, it took less than 118 days for the USD Index to move from peak to trough.In 2017-2018, it also took 82 days for the USDX to form a final bottom (the number of days between the initial bottom and the final bottom) and the duration amounts to 21.19% of the overall timeframe. If we applied a similar timeframe to today’s move, then the USD Index should have bottomed on Feb. 12. It actually bottomed (finally) on Feb. 25, which was just 8 trading days away from the former date. Taking into account the sizes of the moves that preceded the previous declines (they took approximately one year to complete), this is extremely close and an excellent confirmation that the self-similar pattern remains intact.In addition, as the USDX approached its final bottom in 2017-2018, gold traded sideways. Today, however, gold has been in a downward spiral. From a medium-term perspective, the yellow metal’s behavior is actually more bearish than it was in 2017-2018.Finally, the USD Index’s breakout above its 50-day moving average (which it still holds today) is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. Case in point: after the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is roughly 94.5.Moreover, gold’s trepidation alongside the USD Index strength on Mar. 12 adds even more validity to the 2017-2018 analogy.I wrote on Mar. 10:It’s not true that there were no pullbacks during the 2018 rally. There were, but they were simply too small to be visible from the long-term point of view.The first notable pullback took place in early May 2018, and it contributed to a corrective upswing in the precious metals market. To be precise, the USD Index declined after rallying for 56 trading days, but gold rallied earlier – 51 trading days after the USD Index’s final bottom. The USDX’s immediate-top formed 16 trading days after its final bottom, and gold’s bottom formed 10 trading days after the USD’s final bottom.Comparing this to the size of the previous decline in terms of the trading days, it was:51 – 56 trading days / 283 trading days = 18.02% - 19.79%10 – 16 trading days / 283 trading days = 3.53% - 5.65%More importantly though, when the USD Index turned a short-term decline into consolidation in mid-2018, gold’s hesitant reaction highlighted the yellow metal’s anxiety. And what followed? Well, gold’s next move was significantly lower, while the USD Index’s next move was significantly higher. This means that it was likely a good idea that we took profits from our long positions recently when the GDX moved to $32.96 (opening at $30.80 - $31).Please see below:In addition, if we analyze the pairs’ very recent price action, it’s a splitting image.On Friday (Mar. 12), the USD Index rallied by 0.28%, while gold was (roughly) directionless despite the intraday volatility. And just like in 2017-2018, the yellow metal’s behavior signals a forthcoming climax . As a result, gold and the USD Index are behaving exactly as they did before going their separate ways in 2017-2018. And this means a bearish gold price prediction for the following weeks (not necessarily hours, though).Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Mar. 10:Let’s examine the current situation: the preceding decline lasted for 200 trading days and there were 41 – 42 trading days between the final USDX bottom and the short-term reversals in gold and USDX. Comparing this to the final USDX bottom, we get 7 – 8 trading days.Applying the previous percentages to the length of the most recent medium-term decline in the USD Index provides us with the following:18.02% - 19.79% x 200 trading days = ~36 - ~40 trading days3.53% - 5.65% x 200 trading days = ~7 - ~11 trading daysThe above estimation of about 36 – 40 trading days almost perfectly fits the current 41 – 42-day delay, and the estimation of about 7 – 11 trading days almost perfectly fits the current delay of 7 – 8 trading days.In other words, the analogy to the 2018 performance does not only remain intact – it actually perfectly confirms the validity of the current corrective upswing. Once again, it’s very likely just a pullback, not a big trend reversal.The bottom line?Given the size of the 2018 upswing, 94.5 on the USD Index is likely the first, of many, potential upside targets.Adding to the list of upside catalysts, the USD Index still has plenty of other bullets in its chamber. For instance, we’re also in the early innings of a shift in U.S. dollar sentiment. With short interest hitting an all-time high in late-2020, it was a complete fire sale. Today, however, short interest may have peaked.Please see the below chart based on the CoT report :Please consider how big rallies followed the moments when the net speculative position as % of total open interest started to rally back up after being oversold for months. The situation here is still more extreme than it was in early 2018 and 2014, suggesting that the upcoming rally might be bigger than the ones that we saw then.As further evidence, speculative futures traders ( non-commercial ) actually reduced their net-short positions by 1,216 contracts last week (the net of the two values in the red box below). As a result, the slightest shift in sentiment could lead the rest of the herd to follow.Finally, let’s not forget that the USD Index is after a long-term, more-than-confirmed breakout. This means that the long-term trend for the U.S. dollar is up.In conclusion, the USD Index is likely shifting from consolidation to ascension. With the size, scope and duration of the recent price action mirroring 2017-2018, it’s only a matter of time before the USD Index’s medium-term breakout gives way to a material breakthrough. What’s more, the USD Index is finally reacting to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields . Initially ignoring the late-2020 surge, a bottom, and subsequent rally in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has lifted the USD Index 80% of the time since 2003. And with the relationship seemingly restored in 2021, the combination is profoundly bearish for the PMs, especially given today’s triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Are The US Markets Sending A Warning Sign?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 16.03.2021 01:05
After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we've seen certain sectors rally extensively.  Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling?  We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week.  Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)?  Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher?  What's really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs.  Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced. Be sure to sign up for our FREE market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!We are also concerned about an early TWEEZERS TOP pattern that has set up early this week.  If price continues to move lower as we progress through futures contract expiration week, FOMC, and other data this week, then we may see some strong resistance setting up near $35.25.  Have the markets gotten ahead of themselves recently?  Could we be setting up for a moderately deeper pullback in price soon?The following SSO, ProShares S&P 500 ETF Weekly chart, shows a similar setup.  Although the rally in the SSO is not quite the same range as the XLF, we are seeing a solid TWEEZERS TOP pattern setup on the SSO chart over a period of many weeks.  We also found the moderate weakness in the US indexes interesting this morning.  Last week, we continued to see very strong buying trends.  Today, we see those trends have almost vanished.  Are the markets setting near highs waiting for some announcement or news to push them into a new trend?The US stock markets have not experienced a moderate price pullback since August 2020 – when the SPY pulled back almost 11%.  Volatility is still quite high with 2% to 3%+ swings between trading days.  A moderate pullback from these levels could represent another -8.5% to -14% decline before true support is found.Watching the Yields, Precious Metals, and the moderate weakness in trend that started this trading week, we can only suggest that active traders/investors remain moderately cautious.  Our BAN Trader Pro strategy is currently 100% CASH (no trades) for a reason.  Pay attention to this rotation in the markets and the moderate weakness recently.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.Have a great week!
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis – US Dollar Starts Consolidation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.03.2021 08:22
USDCHF stays in rangeAfter its meteoric rise, the US dollar is likely to go sideways as traders await a new catalyst from this week’s FOMC.The break below 0.9260 along with a bearish MA cross was a sign that the price action has gone into a consolidation if not a reversal. A brief rally is not excluded but the recent high of 0.9375 may cap any advance in the short-term.The lower band of the trading range is 0.9180, a resistance-turned-support which also lies around the 20-day moving average on a larger time frame.EURGBP finds support above the bearish trendlineProfit-taking seems to be the theme at the beginning of the week, and in the case of the sterling, buyers have reduced their bets in anticipation of the BoE meeting.The euro took a chance to bounce from the key short-term support area around 0.8550 after a week-long consolidation. The rise above the bearish trendline coupled with the previously mentioned RSI divergence would confirm the bullish bias.Clearing the psychological level of 0.8600 would open the path towards the next target 0.8650.GER 30 looks for support after the new highThe DAX is looking to consolidate its gains on the high ground after global markets regained optimism.A declining RSI indicator from a previously overbought situation is good news for traders looking to join the rally. As the bull market has seemingly resumed, a momentary pullback could see strong buying interest in bidding up the index.14390 is the immediate support but a failure to bounce would suggest a protracted retracement towards the rising trendline (14250).
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

When to trade Bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.03.2021 11:40
All markets are related. Looking for liquidity provides times when execution is guaranteed, and slippage minimized. Professionals tend to gravitate towards the futures and forex markets. These markets are leveraged and least regulated (no uptick rule for shorting the market).Stacking Liquidity, When to trade Bitcoin:Stacking Liquidity, GMT daily chart as of March 15th, 2021The chart above tries to show when these prime times occur daily to place one’s trades. For the long-term investor, these times guarantee good fills and good times to get in and out of their positions. For short- to mid-term trades, these times represent in addition opportunities to find themselves in transactions at the right time. To clarify, whenever a market opens around the globe, it means an abnormality, a possible imbalance. These imbalances can be the seed to a directional move more significant than at other times.If you visit Wall Street, you will find market makers on typical days trade the market open for about ninety minutes, then handing over operations to their assistants while enjoying elaborate lunches and returning for the last 90 minutes of the trading session. You want to focus alongside this more meaningful time in the market rather than being caught in the noise.It is stacking one’s odds that provide for a consistent outcome of profitable trading. In this case, we minimize risk by entering and exiting the market at Prime Time. Prime Time being liquidity stacked session overlaps (Asia+London and London+New York). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, The weekend fake:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 15th, 2021That leaves us with weekend moves that have a lower probability of follow-through. Last weekend’s move to all-time new highs is a good example. Old highs got penetrated, but actual price behavior reveals once the Asia session starts on Monday.Short-term trading as such is directionally neutral for now. For the midterm, we plotted possible reentry zones in the daily chart above.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, A bright future:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2021We find the long-term price expansion of Bitcoin still in place as long as prices do not runaway towards the upside exuberantly in fast motion.Even if you have high time frame entries or exits, it is wise to pick market times of a high degree of liquidity and strong participation.When to trade Bitcoin:It is essential to look at one’s desired trading instrument for abnormalities like the weekend night moves on Bitcoin. Position yourself before breakouts to such moves to avoid traps and volatility that requires larger stops, representing larger risk.Bitcoin has a relationship with the precious metal sector. Gold leading this sector typically shows price moves at the London session open (4:00 am EST), and as such, these are times to have an eye out for Bitcoin as well. Gold also is known to move at the U.S. premarket hours (8:30 am EST), and the actual NYSE opens at 9:30 am EST. Picking one’s battles timed to suggested hours in the first chart of this publication allows for risk minimization. Consequently, it provides a scheduled trading routine versus the risk of struggling to pay 24/7 attention and deal with a lot of price noise and fatigue risk.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 16th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stock Bulls Run – Will Gold Ones Too?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.03.2021 15:37
Resting on Friday, surging on Monday. Feeble downswing attempt defeated right after the open, and then just bullish price action. Retail data today, and another FOMC meeting tomorrow – I view the former as not too likely to spoil today‘s market action. About the latter, remembering the latest reactions to Powell pronouncements, I look for the markets to be affected to a much greater degree.Don‘t look for material surprises, or be spooked by bets on the Fed tightening through dot plot adjustment or other forward guidance tools.I expect no change from what I wrote yesterday:(…) Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.Global liquidity isn‘t retreating exactly, emerging markets are building a solid base regardless of the dollar going higher two days in a row, and emerging market bonds are fighting to recover just as much as long-dated Treasuries. Coupled with the sectoral analysis, this is conducive for the unfolding stock market upswing and for commodities as well. We‘re still in a constructive environment for both, and I look within the latter at especially copper, nickel and iron to do well. Meanwhile, the precious metals upswing is going fine, and the miners keep outperforming – both gold and silver ones. The time for the bulls isn‘t running out, and the real battles will come once the gold bulls conquer the volume profile thin zone around $1,760. Will the bulls reach it on tomorrow‘s Fed underplaying the threat of inflation and showing tolerance to its overshoot? That‘s certainly one of the possibilities.The best course of action is to keep a pretty close eye on the metals – no bullish / bearish change from Thursday‘s words:(…) At the moment, evaluating the strength and internals of precious metals rebound, is the way to go as we might very well have seen the gold bottom, with the timid $1,670 zone test being all the bears could muster. Time and my dutiful reporting will tell.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 upswing is ready to proceed further now, and slight volume hint tells me to look for higher prices today. Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) continue trading in a weak pattern, which however hasn‘t been able to force the stock market down. And not that I looked at it to have a chance to. I continue to view the junk corporate bond market as under pressure in sympathy with investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries, which scored modest gains yesterday too. It‘s a euphoric rush into stocks simply. VolatilityThe volatility index shows no signs of panic returning, and the put/call ratio is getting very complacent again. Doesn‘t look like the boat will capsize today really.Value Stocks and TechValue stocks (VTV ETF) repelled a daily downswing attempt, which is positive considering that technology (XLK ETF) rose more strongly. The leadership in the stock market advance is broadening, and that‘s good news for the bulls.Gold Upswing AnatomyGold added modestly to its recent gains, and would do well to clear the $1,730 area some more really. The low volume is a sign that current prices aren‘t attracting enough interest to step in, and either buy or sell. Given the below chart though, the initiative is still within the bulls.It‘s that the miners keep outperforming gold without really slowing down, and that‘s still what I like to see well before the upswing makes an intermediate top. The daily indicators remain far from extended. Will the bulls take advantage accordingly?Silver, Copper and OilSilver is consolidating and by no means outperforming, as it so often does at the very late stage of precious metals upswings. The deductive conclusion is that the days of the upswing aren‘t likely over just yet.Both copper and oil are consolidating within their bullish patterns, and today‘s downswing taking both down around 1.5% from yesterday‘s prices shown above, is taking them nearer to where I would increase weighting. Yes, I‘m bullish stocks and commodities still, and look for precious metals to be gradually joining in some more.SummaryAfter the brief consolidation of S&P 500 gains, we‘re again in the full upswing mode, and the credit markets aren‘t a show stopper. The stock market bull is alive and well, and deeper correction has been yet again delegated to the dustbin. The top is very far off as this still nascent recovery gets so much stimulus fuel that overheating becomes a very real possibility this year already.Gold keeps turning an important corner on, but the bulls could get more comfortable only with an upswing that clears the $1,730 zone now, given the strong performance mining indices are showing. Adding to that even more decreased sensitivity to rising yields would compound the pleasant sight for the bulls. The runup to tomorrow‘s Fed will be telling.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stock March Madness - Who you got?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.03.2021 14:42
Prepare yourself. March Madness could be here. No, I’m not talking about the college basketball tourney either.Stocks will be hanging onto Jay Powell’s every word and every breath on Wednesday (Mar. 17) and scrutinize his thoughts on interest rates and inflation.Pretty much, we’re the Fed’s hostages until this thing gets some clarity. Even if Powell says nothing, the markets will move. That’s just how it’s going to work.Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO for global fixed income, echoed this statement. “I think the last press conference, I think I watched with one eye and listened with one ear. This one I’m going to be tuned in to every word and the markets are going to be tuned in to every word. If he says nothing, it will move markets. If he says a lot, it will move markets.”Jay Powell is the biggest market mover in the game now. What’s coronavirus anymore?So far, it’s been a relatively tame week for the indices. The Nasdaq’s continued playing catch-up and has outperformed, while the Dow and S&P are still hovering around record highs.The wheels are in motion for pent-up consumer spending and a strong stock rally. Plus, we have that $1.9 trillion stimulus package heating up the economy and an army of retail traders with an extra $1,400 to play with.Inflation fears and surging bond yields are still a concern and have caused significant volatility for growth stocks. But let’s have a little perspective here. Plus, jobless claims beat estimates again and came in at 712,000. This is nearly the lowest they’ve been in a whole year. Last week’s inflation data also came in more tamer than expected.But bonds yields still remain the market’s biggest wild card. Yes, yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%. But depending on how things go around 2 pm Wednesday (Mar. 17), yields could potentially pop again, reinvigorating the rotation into value and cyclical plays and out of tech and growth plays.Time will tell what happens.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Russell 2000- Lessons LearnedFigure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)The Russell 2000 was the biggest laggard on Tuesday (Mar. 16). I think I’m starting to figure this index out, though, for a solid entry point.I have been kicking myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn when the markets got rocked in the second half of February. I may have broken my own rule about “not timing the market” also. I’ve wanted to buy the Russell 2000 badly forever but never thought it dipped hard enough (whenever it did). I was waiting for it to at least approach a correction.But I think I figured out a pattern now. Notice what happened with the Russell almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average. It reversed. Look at the above chart. Excluding the large crash and subsequent recovery in late-March and April 2020, 5 out of the last 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.Now, look at the index. As tracked by iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , its rally since November and year-to-date have been mind-blowing. Pretty much, this is the one reason why I’m more cautious about buying the index.Since the market’s close on October 30, the IWM has gained about 51.04% and more than doubled ETFs’ returns tracking the more major indices.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up 19.12% and around at an all-time high.With that $1.9 trillion stimulus package set to greatly benefit small businesses, the Russell 2000 could pop even more.Unfortunately, I’m keeping this a HOLD. But I am monitoring the Russell 2000 closely.Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for. The next time the index approaches its 50-day moving average, I will be a little more aggressive.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, if small-caps are buyable, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Squaring the Bets Prior to the Fed

Squaring the Bets Prior to the Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.03.2021 15:14
Barely visible, but still a red candle – does yesterday mark a turning point? Even the volatility index refused to decline further on the day, and the option traders increased their put allocations. Is this a real reason to be cautious, or it represents mere window dressing before the Fed?When it comes to the sectoral view, not much has really changed in the S&P 500. Technology rose yesterday but gave up all intraday gains. Value stocks appear ready for a breather, and financials, energy and industrials all declined. That doesn‘t bode extraordinarily well for today‘s session, but this is not the place to look at when it comes to trading today‘s markets.It‘s the long-term Treasuries that I am focused on the most. Still as extended as lately ever relative to their 50-day moving average, they‘re weighing heavily on the markets. Stocks have gotten used to their message of rising inflation and economic recovery as we‘re still in the reflation phase, and not in the inflation one – but it‘s the precious metals that are suffering here, showing best in the copper to 10y Treasury yield ratio.I am not looking for the Fed to act today by adjusting its forward guidance stance or language, or taking a U-turn on inflation. No, they‘ll maintain the transitory stance even though markets are transitioning to a higher inflation environment already. The Fed won‘t do much this time.My prior Monday‘s words ring true also today:(…) Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?So, I am looking for stocks to do rather well as they are absorbing the rising nominal rates. And this still translates into yesterday‘s throughts:(…) Global liquidity isn‘t retreating exactly, emerging markets are building a solid base regardless of the dollar going higher two days in a row, and emerging market bonds are fighting to recover just as much as long-dated Treasuries. Coupled with the sectoral analysis, this is conducive for the unfolding stock market upswing and for commodities as well. We‘re still in a constructive environment for both, and I look within the latter at especially copper, nickel and iron to do well. For gold, the key question remains whether copper upswings will outpace any yield increases on the long end, which have moderated their increases in Mar compared to Feb. That‘s good but not nearly enough given that even gold afficionados have come to expect lower prices lately quite en masse. Sign of capitulation off which the upswing was born? Yes, and the key questions now are whether we‘re seeing a pause, or a top in the upswing, and whether the next selling pressure would break below the $1,670 zone or not – see my early March game plan. The volume profile thin zone around $1,760 appears out of reach for now, without a Fed catalyst. I don‘t look for the central bank to invite any speculation on when the next rate hike might come (forget Brazil‘s example). They might not even talk about bringing down rates at the long end through a twist program. I certainly don‘t look for clues as to increasing the $120bn monthly pace of monetary injections. Unless the market perceives the Fed as underplaying the threat of inflation and showing tolerance to its palpable overshoot, the overall mix of positions and conference statements might bring gold under renewed pressure as it meanders a little below $1,730 as we speak.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 upswing took another daily breather yesterday in the end, and the volume doesn‘t send clear signals either way. Consolidation followed by new highs appears though the most likely scenario.Credit MarketsAfter quite some time, stocks are trading at very elevated levels relative to the high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio. Now, it‘s three days in a row that the latter doesn‘t confirm the stock market upswing. The bulls better be cautious here over at least a few sessions as the latest historical evidence shows that Fed pronouncements haven‘t been accompanied by fully risk-on moves exactly.Let‘s not forget the big picture, and that‘s of the stock market rising at the expense of debt instruments. Please note how little has the early Mar correction achieved in denting the S&P 500 appeal. The stock market bull is alive and well, very well actually.Gold in the StraitsGold still remains resilient to rising yields, but its inability to rally convincingly is worrying for the bulls. After all, this $1,730 zone shouldn‘t have been any real obstacle after three days of the rally, yet the yellow metal had to rise from the dead on Friday to fight another day. And given that it hasn‘t progressed since, it makes me think the bulls are hanging around for a remotely possible Fed surprise only.It‘s only the miners that are kind of still positive here. Yet, even their upswing was challenged yesterday, but that was on low volume. And that‘s constructive for the bulls when it comes to interpreting yesterday‘s events.The lack of silver outperformance before the sellers take over, is another sign why the upswing might not be over just yet. Still, these are just secondary clues, for nothing is more bullish than rising prices, which is what we obviously haven‘t seen in the metals much really.Key Ratio SpeaksWhile not tracking each other as closely as lately, the copper to 10y Treasury yield is sending an ominous signal still. The key question is whether long-dated Treasuries rise, or gold falls – I am not looking for copper to deviate from the current steeply rising trajectory much.SummaryS&P 500 is again entering daily consolidation mode, justifying my decision to take some of the prior profits off the table earlier today. While the Fed won‘t likely deliver real surprises later today, the credit markets are flashing warning signs more noticeably than yesterday. Still, the stock market bull is very far from making a top.Gold is being increasingly more challenged and stuck in the $1,730 zone, instead of clearing it.The yellow metal awaits today‘s Fed pronouncements, and barring a dovish(ly perceived) surprise, it looks ready to give up a portion of recent gains. All eyes on long-term Treasuries remains the battle cry.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Have the Ides of March Come for Silver?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.03.2021 16:25
Gold’s volatile little brother had an interesting run thus far, with internet forums buoying its price. But will fundamentals prevail? Where is silver headed?“The Ides of March are come,” said Caesar. “Aye Caesar; but not gone,” replied the soothsayer. The Ides of March quotation is often bandied about in financial articles midway through the month. Caesar was assassinated on March 15 th in 44BC (or BCE), at a meeting of the Roman Senate. Written about by Plutarch and further popularized by Shakespeare (who dramatized the event), the day has been used as a harbinger of ill fortune. So, if we’re to look at silver, should we be concerned about anything at this time?Silver is moving similarly to what we saw in the second half of 2019 and early 2020, before the huge slide. I marked the very broad tops that followed a quick rally in the red-shaded rectangles, and I also created solid-line red rectangles based on the last two – normal – tops and the initial decline that followed them.Based on the sudden increase in silver’s popularity, it spiked 1.5 months ago, but this move to new highs was quickly invalidated. The nature of this move was more or less random – it didn’t stem from a change in fundamentals or from a specific technical pattern , but rather from a sudden growth of interest in silver based on forum posts. Because of that, and because this upswing was quickly invalidated, this quick upswing didn’t really break the self-similarity pattern .Right now, we see a corrective upswing between – approximately - the 50- and 200-day moving averages (marked with blue and red). This upswing corresponds to the corrective upswing in gold and mining stocks (which allowed us to profitably go long in case of the latter). We saw – approximately – the same thing about 12 months ago, right before the huge slide.And speaking of time, please note that the final corrective upswing of early 2020 took place in very late February and early March, while the two – normal – tops that created the red-line rectangle formed more or less at the turn of the year and in late February. This year, it’s all taking place at almost exactly the same time of the year.If this self-similar pattern is indeed materializing, then the implications are very bearish, and we can expect a major downturn any day or week now.Let’s be realistic - so far, the analogy might seem too unclear to be viewed as a reliable base for making a silver forecast .But what if… What if there was a very similar pattern in the past that also preceded a massive decline? This would greatly increase the reliability of the above self-similarity.There was indeed such a pattern!That’s what silver did in 2008 before it declined.The August 2007 – March 2008 rally (please note the interim top in November 2007 that was followed by a zigzag decline, more or less in the middle of the rally) is similar to the March 2020 – August 2021 rally (please note the interim top in June 2020 that was followed by a zigzag pattern, more or less in the middle of the rally).Afterwards, we saw a double top in both cases that was followed by a sizable slide. Then silver formed a specific U-shaped broad top, where the final top was below the initial one (exception: in this case the forum-based rally took silver slightly above the previous high, but due to the specific / random nature of the move, it “doesn’t count” as something that invalidates the analogy).After the top, silver declined, and the final corrective upswing took place approximately between the 50- and 200-day moving averages.Please note that in both previous (2008 and 2020) cases silver then truly plunged, and it kept on declining until it moved below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension based on the initial downswing. The above charts illustrate that by showing the first decline at the 38.2% retracement (1 / 0.382 = approximately 2.618). Applying the same to the current situation (the initial decline took silver from below $30 to below $24) provides us with the minimum decline target at about $13.50. Will silver really decline as low? In my view, it’s imperative to watch other markets for indications as they might have more reliable targets (for instance gold), but I wouldn’t say that this target (or lower price levels) is out of the question. Of course, that’s just on a temporary basis – silver will likely soar in the following months and years (after this decline).Before summarizing, please note silver’s tendency to decline sharply in March – that’s what happened in 2008 and 2020. Even if the entire self-similar pattern doesn’t continue, based on this seasonality, silver is likely to decline soon, anyway.Summing up, if the similarity to what happened in 2020 and 2008 is upheld, then it seems that we’re about to see a big decline in the price of the white metal . Naturally, that’s not the only reason to expect silver’s weakness in the following weeks and months (not necessarily days) – you will find other reasons in my previous analyses .Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – Post-FOMC Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.03.2021 08:41
NAS 100 challenges key resistanceFOMC officials’ pledge to keep the monetary policy accommodative has pumped up the appetite for risk assets. After reaching near the March high of 13330, the tech index saw profit-taking as the RSI shot into the overbought zone.The price has bounced off the demand zone around 12900. As the bullish sentiment makes its return after the recent correction, a neutral low RSI could prompt bargain hunters to get onboard.A rally above the previous high may extend the recovery towards 13700.AUDUSD breaks above the consolidation rangeA fall in Australia’s unemployment rate has confirmed the country’s strong fundamentals and put the Aussie back on track. After hitting the supply area around 0.7800, the price action has previously gone sideways for the lack of a catalyst.An oversold RSI indicator has raised traders’ interest to buy the dip at the psychological level of 0.7700. A rally back above 0.7835 could resume the medium-term uptrend.In the case of a pullback, the area between 0.7670 and 0.7700 would see strong buying interests.NZDUSD attempts a U-turnDespite a worse-than-expected GDP, the kiwi rallied on the back of a dovish US Federal Reserve. Having established support at 0.7100 on the daily chart, the pair is gathering momentum for the next round of rally.A low RSI suggests there is plenty of room on the upside, though the price action will first need to clear the origin of the latest sell-off at 0.7270.That would pave the way for a rise above 0.7300. The reversal would gain traction as long as the pair stays above the immediate support at 0.7150.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Reversing the Fed Moves?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.03.2021 15:22
Fed messaging was rightfully interpreted as dovish – full employment is in effect its single mandate now. Yes, the central bank will tolerate higher inflation, and has prepped the markets for its advent (as if these didn‘t know already). Powell managed to walk the fine line between economic optimism, pushback on the idea of raising rates or taper, and yet implicitly acknowledged the growing liquidity concerns with one little, gentle prod. Markets naturally liked the tone, overlooking no mention of action on rising yields, and stocks, metals and commodities turned positive on the day – quite strongly so. The dollar declined visibly as long-term Treasuries recovered intraday losses on high volume. Highly charged finish to the day, but today‘s analysis will show that little has actually changed in its internals. Rates are rising for the good reason of improving economy and its outlook, reflation (economic growth rising faster than inflation and inflation expectations) hasn‘t given way to all out inflation, and stocks with commodities remain in a secular bull market. We‘re in the decade of real assets outperforming paper ones, but that will become apparent only much later into the 2020s.So, the central bank confirmed my yesterday‘s assessment of its tone and Treasuries take:(…) I am not looking for the Fed to act today by adjusting its forward guidance stance or language, or taking a U-turn on inflation. No, they‘ll maintain the transitory stance even though markets are transitioning to a higher inflation environment already. The Fed won‘t do much this time.They might not even talk about bringing down rates at the long end through a twist program. I certainly don‘t look for clues as to increasing the $120bn monthly pace of monetary injections. Unless the market perceives the Fed as underplaying the threat of inflation and showing tolerance to its palpable overshoot, the overall mix of positions and conference statements might bring gold under renewed pressure as it meanders a little below $1,730 as we speak.Long-term Treasuries … are weighing heavily on the markets. Stocks have gotten used to their message of rising inflation and economic recovery... – but it‘s the precious metals that are suffering here, showing best in the copper to 10y Treasury yield ratio.For gold, the key question remains whether copper upswings will outpace any yield increases on the long end, which have moderated their increases in Mar compared to Feb. That‘s good but not nearly enough given that even gold afficionados have come to expect lower prices lately quite en masse. Sign of capitulation off which the upswing was born? Yes, and the key questions now are whether we‘re seeing a pause, or a top in the upswing, and whether the next selling pressure would break below the $1,670 zone or not – see my early March game plan. The volume profile thin zone around $1,760 appears out of reach for now, without a Fed catalyst.And while we got a good confidence building one yesterday, I don‘t see it as strong enough to power precious metals higher immediately. It‘s nice that gold is decoupling from the rising yields but I view its upswing as demanding on current and future patience. Gold miners are still showing the way, and will be a key barometer in telling whether today‘s premarket downswing in antidollar, risk-on plays is a meaningful turn or not. For now, the renewed long-term Treasury yield increases (and tech selloff to a degree) point to reemergence of lingering Fed doubts.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe upper knot in the S&P 500 upswing spells short-term caution. The chart posture would be stronger without it, but at the same time, the volume and candle itself aren‘t ones of reversal. The most likely outcome of upcoming sessions still appears as resumption of the prior grind higher, which is in line with my yesterday‘s message of consolidation followed by new highs as the most likely scenario.Credit MarketsThe long upper knot in the high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio shows that the bond market isn‘t on board with the Fed – at a time when stocks aren‘t panicking in the least. Given the big picture in the economy and the combo of monetary and fiscal policy initiatives, I look for this to be a storm in the tea cup when it comes to (higher future) stock prices, and I am keenly on the lookout for possible deterioration in the corporate bond markets as relates to the S&P 500.Technology and ValueThe tech upswing wasn‘t really convincing, but it‘s been value stocks‘ turn to drive higher S&P 500 prices. No change in dynamic here. It‘s however the relation to not as strong Russell 2000 or emerging markets yesterday that hints at headwinds in stocks for today. A play on patience, again.Inflation ExpectationsYesterday‘s Fed message gave no reason for these to decline, and prior uptrend continues unabated. Bond yields haven‘t though frontrunned them yesterday, which I however look to see changed today.Precious MetalsThe gold ETF formed a bullish candle, tracking the rising miners well. But likewise to the HYG:SHY ratio‘s upper knot message, this one is concerning as well. The key question is about the staying power of GDX outperformance – the key argument for the gold market character having changed with the Mar 08 bottom, which might very well be THE bottom, and not a local one. The decoupling of the yellow metal from rising yields is even more visible now than when I first showed you the weekly $GOLD - TLT overlay chart two weeks ago.Platinum goes down while the copper engine runs (and silver did join in yesterday). This chart sends a message of short-term indecision extending to other commodities, including oil. SummaryS&P 500 is in my view merely testing the buyers‘ resolve, and doesn‘t want to turn the consolidation on declining VIX into a rush to the exit door. Despite the surprisingly early turn against the Fed day move, this doesn‘t represent a trend change or arrival of the dreaded steep correction. The stock market bull is very far from making a top.Gold is again under pressure today, back in the $1,730 zone instead of having cleared it. Understandable given the dollar and Treasuries reversal of yesterday‘s Fed moves, but not rushing to the downside head over heels.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis – Sterling Tests Key Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.03.2021 08:18
GBPUSD builds bullish momentumThe Bank of England followed the US Fed’s dovish footstep on Thursday in an attempt to rein in inflation expectations. This has led the pound to hit a wall once again at the psychological level of 1.4000.Those who believe in the third time’s a charm may find support at 1.3850 after the pair made a series of higher lows.A bullish breakout could push the price towards 1.4150 or even end the three-week-long consolidation. A drop below 1.3800, however, may dent the upward bias from a medium-term perspective.USDJPY in rectangle consolidationRally in risk assets come at the expense of a safer Japanese yen. Though the BoJ would sit on its hands and find no issue in a weaker currency as global trade makes a comeback.The US dollar has so far found support above the previous lows around 108.30. The RSI has dropped back into neutral territory from an overbought situation, which may prompt more buyers to get in the game.A breakout above the horizontal range (109.30) could extend the rally to last June’s high at 109.80.XAGUSD bounces off ascending trendlineA softer US dollar is exactly what commodity traders have been waiting for. Silver is looking to safeguard its gains after the latest pop above the resistance at 26.40.An over-extended RSI was followed up by profit-taking in the supply area. However, a nascent rising trendline hints at buyers’ strong interest in bidding up the price.A reversal is in the making if the price action succeeds in staying above 25.80.A bullish breakout above 26.90 could trigger a broader rally into the 28s.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Return of the Rising Yields

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.03.2021 14:47
March Madness started on Thursday (Mar. 18), but stocks got the jump on their own brackets this week. Let’s dive in.Although Wednesday (Mar. 17) saw the indices have a nice St. Patrick’s day green reversal thanks to Jay Powell babying us on inflation thoughts again, Mr. Market isn't stupid. Manic, but not stupid. We saw a return to the strong rotation trend out of growth stocks the day after Powell's testimony (Mar. 18).Thursday (Mar. 18) saw bond yields surge to their highest levels in what seems like forever. The 10-year yield popped 11 basis points to 1.75% for the first time since January 2020, while the 30-year rate climbed 6 basis points and breached 2.5% for the first time since August 2019.Predictably, the Nasdaq tanked by over 3% for its worst session in 3-weeks.Jay Powell and bond yields are the most significant market movers in the game now. Get ready for the market next week when he testifies to Congress. That'll be a beauty. What's coronavirus anymore?So after what's been a relatively tame week for the indices, we can officially say bye-bye to that.Bond yields, though, are still at historically low levels, and the Fed Funds Rate remains at 0%. With the Fed forecasting a successful economic recovery this year, with GDP growth of around 6.5% -- the fastest in nearly four decades -- the wheels could be in motion for another round of the Roaring '20s.The problem, though, is that the Great Depression came right after the first Roaring '20s.Many are sounding the alarm. However, like CNBC's Jim Cramer, others think the current headwinds are overblown, and a mirror of the 2015-2016 downturn is based on similar catalysts.Figure 1: Jim Cramer TwitterCramer argued that Powell is a talented central banker willing to "let the economy continue to gain strength so that everyone has a chance to do well."Nobody can predict the future, and these growth stock jitters from rising bond yields may be overblown. But for now, it's probably best to let the market figure itself out and be mindful of the headwinds.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- Another Buyable Dip?Figure 2- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe last time I switched my Nasdaq call to a BUY on Feb 24 , that worked out very well. I will use the same criteria again for the Nasdaq as the market figures out bond yields: The RSI and the 13000 support level. I need the Nasdaq’s RSI to dip below 40 while also falling below 13000 before buying.We’re not quite there. This is an excellent dip, but it’s really only one down day and its worst down day in weeks. I think we may have some more buying opportunities next week if bond yields pop due to Jay Powell’s testimony. I mean, it seemingly always happens after he speaks.Pay very close attention to the index and its swings.If the tech sector takes another big dip, don’t get scared, don’t time the market, monitor the trends I mentioned and look for selective buying opportunities. If we hit my buying criteria, selectively look into high-quality companies and emerging disruptive sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.HOLD, and let the RSI and 13000-support level guide your Nasdaq decisions. See what happens over subsequent sessions, research emerging tech sectors and high-quality companies, and consider buying that next big dip.For an ETF that attempts to correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ directly, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as a potentially overbought Dow Jones, small-caps, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Breaking the Spell of Rising Yields

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.03.2021 15:00
Markets didn‘t buy into the Fed messaging, and quite a few moves were reversed. Stocks declined, commodities got under pressure, and oil took it on the chin. Long-dated Treasuries plunged again as the dollar reversed Wednesday‘s losses. Overall picture is one of nervousness as the Fed‘s statements and their consistency are getting a second look. Plus, triple witching can exaggerate today‘s trade swings, getting reversed in subsequent sessions too.The greatest adjustment is arguably in the inflation projections – what and when is the Fed going to do before inflation raises its ugly head in earnest. There is still time, but the market is transitioning to a higher inflation environment already nonetheless. In moments of uncertainty that hasn‘t yet turned into sell first, ask questions later, let‘s remember the big picture. Plenty of fiscal support is hitting the economy, the Fed is very accomodative, and all the modern monetary theory inspired actions risk overheating the economy later this year. As I wrote yesterday:(…) Rates are rising for the good reason of improving economy and its outlook, reflation (economic growth rising faster than inflation and inflation expectations) hasn‘t given way to all out inflation, and stocks with commodities remain in a secular bull market. We‘re in the decade of real assets outperforming paper ones, but that will become apparent only much later into the 2020s.The largely undisturbed rise in commodities got checked yesterday just as stocks did, but the higher timeframe trends (technical and fundamental drivers) hadn‘t changed, which will be apparent once the dust settles. As I‘ll lay out in today‘s analysis, the gold market is springing back to life, and the precious metals upswing rationale is still very much on the table, and the decoupling from rising nominal yields goes on – I view yesterday‘s selloff in the miners as partially equity markets driven.Bottom line, I made good decisions to subscribers‘ benefit by closing profitable stock market positions before the downswing hit, and not writing off gold.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookOrderly downswing yesterday that wouldn‘t stand out on the chart in a few weeks really. The only stunning thing about it is how soon after Wednesday‘s FOMC it came. Yet, this chart isn‘t sending signals of a key reversal just in.Credit MarketsThe non-confirmation in the high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio caught up with the 500-strong index yesterday. Is a new downtrend starting here? While high yield corporate bonds for the all the Treasuries market turmoil haven‘t arguably bottomed yet, the degree to which they can pull stocks down still, is an open question. Conversely, once HYG swings higher again, stocks would get on a firmer footing.Technology and ValueThe tech sold off again, and the interest-rate sensitive defensives (utilities, consumer staples and REITs) suffered yesterday. Yes, even the sharply recovering real estate sector did. Coupled with value stocks giving up intraday gains, the stock market internals have (not insurmountedly, but temporarily) deteriorated.Gold and SilverGold not following the declining TLT path is the most important green shoot within the market. The yellow metal held up very well in yesterday‘s selling pressure across the board, and not even gold miners (viewed through a $HUI overlay or $HUI:$GOLD ratio) gave up on the upswing – more downside price action in the latter would have to come today to cast real doubts.Weekly chart examination of essentially equivalent metrics (enriched with the key copper ingredient) shows clearly the PMs decoupling stage – silver cast off the shackles still in 2020 while gold is doing so now. It‘s still early on in the process, but invalidating excessively bearish targets – gold has the benefit of my doubt, until I call that one off. I don‘t think that would happen today.Crude OilThe one-way trip starting in Nov met its largest downswing yesterday, signifying we better get used to oil no longer moving in one direction only. Amid the reports of excess stockpiles and European lockdowns denting the demand, OPEC+ is keeping up with the production cuts, undermined largely by Iranian exports only. But look how little has the oil index ($XOI) declined – it‘s relative position shows the excessive nature of yesterday‘s move. In my view, oil would be rangebound once it bottoms, before breaking higher again. The world economy is improving, leading indicators are rising, and the only fly in the ointment are yields, and a stronger dollar pressuring emerging markets. The forces of reflation, liquidity and demand growth will outweigh this unfolding, temporary setback. SummaryS&P 500 is once again experiencing downswing, yet the VIX hasn‘t truly spiked – and neither has the put/call ratio. While there is no stampede to the exit door, the market internals have deteriorated, and may take more than a few sessions to get repaired. For one, tech is again in the driving seat.Gold has been quite resilient lately, and yesterday‘s developments also outside of the bonds arena are boding well for the $1,670 bottom hypothesis. Especially given the hints presented above, and that stock market weakness coupled with safe haven play attraction, might help here further.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Silver, simple and effective

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 21.03.2021 10:12
Why we find Silver to be the number one hedge towards an uncertain future, an excellent investment to make stellar returns, and a simple way to protect your wealth is as follows:Precious metals have a history of perfect risk mitigation of a portfolioPrecious metals have an intrinsic tangible commodity value if held in physical formSilver is the underdog in its sector, needing to catch up with gold, providing for an additional edgeSilver is trending (now in a consolidation period – and within this consolidation strong – after a potent first trend leg up)Fundamental facts point overwhelmingly towards a strong Silver demandSilver is in the public eye, the news, creating demand in various investor and consumer classesActual proof of demand outweighing supply through the now consistently for a year divergence between spot and physical acquisition price for Silver (a 35% difference at the moment).Monthly Chart of Gold/Silver-Ratio, The turbo edge:Gold-Silver ratio, monthly chart as of March 18th, 2021.A look at the monthly chart of the Gold/Silver-Ratio above shows that historically price violations of the 40 moving average result in a move much more closer towards a median zone. Imbalance, principle-based, returning to balance. This, even with the most moderate early area of a 43.50 level (our studies show a reasonable likelihood of a value of 18), provides a turbo stack-able edge for a Silver purchase. These additional boosters for a higher likelihood of success of your investment make all the difference.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, A healthy trend:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 18th, 2021.The weekly chart of Silver shows that even though the last six months were one of consolidation for Silver prices, within that consolidation, there was consistent follow-through of strength for direction. You can make this out by eyeballing price within this sideways period (after the stellar advance from March 2020 to August 2020) creeping upward on the blue midline for the linear regression channel. Strong volume node price support at US$25 is now substantiated by holding through the Fed announcement this week. Consequently providing good support and low risk for more physical Silver acquisition.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver, simple and effective:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of March 18th, 2021.The last 50 years on a monthly Silver chart bring to light that Silver can move for substantial distances. These bull trends live above the 100-moving average. The bears have their upper hands below this average line. Silver jolted out of a six-year bear range cycle far above the 100-moving average. Consequently, probability is now on the side for Silver investors. That with quite some upside potential for the long run. We feel confident that Silver sees new all-time highs in the not-so-distant future and most likely three-digit figures not too far out as well.Silver, simple and effective:A mistake here and there is human. If you miss an entry once in a while, that’s fine. But right now, we see a tendency of hope replacing sound wealth preservation strategy. A typical move of the subconscious when exposed for too long to a stressful situation. A hopeful mindset is not a good point of origin for investing. Emotional states aren’t the best investment advisors. The future is far from clear may this be fiscal or monetary, political or economical. A simple and effective way right now is what is needed to get grounded. Consequently, finding oneself on an emotionally sound foundation to operate from.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 18th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

After The FOMC – What's Next?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 22.03.2021 03:01
I have received numerous emails and questions regarding the market's set up and what to expect after the Triple-Witching event (FOMC, Futures/Options expiration) last week.  It appears many traders/investors are seeking some clarity related to price trends and the potential opportunities that are setting up in the US markets right now.  In this research article, my research team and I provide some greater detail related to what we believe is likely to happen over the next 5 to 8+ weeks.Our recent Gann/Fibonacci research article drew quite a bit of attention from readers.  Their biggest concern was that we were suggesting a major peak in the markets could setup in early April 2021.  We want to be clear about this longer term market setup to make sure our readers and followers fully understand the implications of this technical pattern. A peak/top could start to setup anytime after April 1, 2021, based on the Gann/Fibonacci research we've completed.  But, that peak/top setup could also happen anytime between April 2021 and August 2021 (or slightly later).  Timing this pattern is not something we can accomplish very easily as the range of dates where this Gann/Fibonacci inflection level exists consists of about 5+ months.  The one key factor we continued to stress in that article was to “watch for a technical breakdown in price above the $379 to $380 price level on the SPY”.  Many readers may be able to comprehend what we are trying to say by this statement, but we'll try to help clarify it by showing what it would look like on a price chart.Back in November 2020, we published a research article about how to spot an Excess Phase Top and the 5 unique phases that take place when this type of top executes.  You can read this article here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/how-to-spot-the-end-of-an-excess-phase-part-ii/.  It is important to understand how capital continues to seek out opportunities within any market trend and how the current shift away from the NASDAQ and into the Dow Jones, Russell 2000 and other various sectors has started to shift the way the markets are reacting right now.  We are seeing more weakness in the Technology and Internet sector now than we've seen in almost a decade.  This could be setting up the first technical patterns of an Excess Phase Top already.Monthly NQ Chart Shows Excess Phase Top May Already Have StartedThe following Monthly NASDAQ chart highlights the five unique stages of an Excess Phase Peak and shows the recent weakness in the NASDAQ price trend may have already started the Phase B (Price Flagging) stage.  Within this phase, price trends moderately higher for many weeks as weakness in the bullish price trend sets up a “rollover” type of peak.  Obviously, the previous excess phase rally is stalling and traders are not yet fully aware of the risks that may continue to be present if this pattern persists.  This Phase C (Breakdown of the Flagging pattern) would prompt a move to intermediate support, which will likely become the Critical support level in the NQ that may prompt the bigger Breakdown event(See the “D” setup).So, what would price activity look like if our research is correct?  How does this translate into opportunity for traders/investors right now and what should they look for in the future?Expect Many Weeks of Flagging In The NQLet's focus on the Weekly NQ Futures chart, below, and how the price has already set up into a potential sideways Bullish Flagging trend.  The first thing we want you to focus on is the broken YELLOW bullish trend line.  We would expect any continued sideways Flagging trend to trade within the CYAN price channels we've drawn on this chart.  If this happens, we should continue to expect some moderate upside price trending throughout the sideways Flagging price channel before a bigger breakdown in price happens (as we've drawn in MAGENTA).  This is why traders and investors need to fully understand the scope of our Gann/Fibonacci research article and to understand this setup may last into July/August of 2021 before finally entering a deeper downside price trend.We profit from volatility by using non-directional options trading strategies so watch our webinar on How To Become An Options Strategy Master now!If our research is correct, the sideways Flagging trend will prompt a moderate upside price trend for many weeks (possibly 4 to 8+) before a moderate breakdown event will see price levels fall -12% to -16% - targeting #D (the critical support level).  At that point, the trend may firm up near support and begin a moderate upside price trend for many weeks or months; or we may see a technical price bounce near this level before a more immediate breakdown of price takes place.  Either way, the Breakdown Zone is where we would consider a “technical price failure” to have confirmed – validating our Gann/Fibonacci peak prediction.Currently, numerous sectors are generating new bullish trend triggers – many of which have already rallied 20 to 40% or more.  As we suggested earlier, the shift in how capital is being deployed in the markets has prompted various sectors,many of which have been overlooked over the past 12+ months,  to really begin to accelerate higher.  This is because the froth near the peak in the NASDAQ, as well as the new geopolitical landscape, has prompted traders/investors to shift focus into new opportunities in sectors they believe have continued growth opportunities.  For example, the Marijuana, Consumer Discretionary, Infrastructure and Real Estate sectors appear to be entering new bullish trends while the Technology, Healthcare, BioTech and Chip Manufacturers appear to be stalling.What this means for traders/investors is that there is still lots of opportunity to trade the best opportunities in the markets.  This is the focus of my BAN trading Strategy.  Until we see a confirmed technical breakdown in the major markets, various sectors continue to present very strong opportunities for skilled technical traders.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  Learning to profit from these bigger trends and sector rotation will make a big difference between success and failure.  We want to be clear, we are not calling for an April 1 peak in the markets based on our Gann/Fibonacci research.  We are suggesting that a bigger “topping” pattern is already setting up in the markets and skilled technical traders should already be preparing for underlying risks related to this technical pattern.  If you are not prepared for this, then please pay attention and learn from our research. You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.In Part II of this research article, we'll attempt to share more information about the Excess Phase Peak setup that may be setting up in the US markets and what to watch out for.  Additionally, we'll take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial chart to compare the NASDAQ setup to the INDU setup.  Where we are seeing weakness in the NASDAQ right now, the Dow Jones Industrial chart appears to show a much stronger price trend right now.Enjoy the rest of your weekend!!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – Finding Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.03.2021 07:50
AUDUSD tests key supportIn Australia’s worse-than-expected retail sales, traders saw not a reason to dump, but rather an opportunity to get in for cheap.After the RSI shot into the overbought territory post-FOMC, the indicator cooled off as the price came down to test the support at 0.7700.The subsequent rebound above 0.7770 was a sign that buyers are still in the business. 0.7850 is the intermediate resistance and its clearance could propel the Aussie above 0.79.On the downside, 0.7620 is the major daily support buyers should be aware of.GBPJPY tumbles after over-extensionThe BOJ’s tweak to widen the long-term rates cap to 0.25% from the previous 0.2% came off as a rate hike in disguise, sending the yen higher across the board.Technically speaking, the RSI’s bearish divergence was a warning on an overstretched rally. Zooming out on the daily chart an overbought RSI suggests a pullback towards the 20 or 30-day moving average (149.00).On the hourly chart, successive breaks below 151.30 then 150.80 have confirmed the turnaround. 151.80 is the resistance after the first round of sell-off.USDCAD breaks bearish momentumDespite an improvement in retail data, the Canadian dollar came under pressure as the price of oil tanked.The RSI divergence from last week indicated a loss of momentum in the sell-off. Then a breakout above the resistance at 1.2490 and a bullish MA cross have heightened the odds of a reversal.1.2570 is the next hurdle and a close above that level could trigger a new round of rally. In the case of a retracement, the demand zone between 1.2360 and 1.2460 may see strong buying interest.
Tide Is Turning in Stocks and Gold

Tide Is Turning in Stocks and Gold

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.03.2021 13:51
Friday‘s session ended in a tie, but it‘s the bears who missed an opportunity to win. Markets however dialed back their doubting of the Fed, which has been apparent in the long-term Treasuries the most. One daily move doesn‘t make a trend change likely though, especially since the Mar pace of TLT decline is on par with Feb‘s and higher than in Jan. While Treasuries paused in early Mar, they‘re now once again as extended vs. their 50-day moving average as before.And that poses a challenge for interest rate sensitive stocks and to some degree also for tech - while I expect value to continue to lead over growth, technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. And it‘s true that the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.Inflation expectations are rising, and so is inflation – PPI under the hood thus far only. Financial assets are rising, perfectly reflected in (this month consolidating) commodity prices. Cost-driven inflation is in our immediate future, not one joined at the hip with job market pressures – that‘s waiting for 2022-3. The story of coming weeks and months is the stimulus avalanche hitting while the Fed still merrily ignores the bond market pressures.And stocks are going to like that – with tech participating, or at least not standing too much in the way, S&P 500 is primed to go to new highs rather shortly. Given the leadership baton being firmly in the hands of value, smallcaps are likely to outperform the 500-strong index over the coming weeks and months. The volatility index is confirming with its general downtrend, commodities, including oil, will be the 2021+ place to be in – just see how fast is Thursday‘s steep correction being reversed. I‘ll be covering black gold more often based on popular demand, so keep your questions and requests coming!The precious metals upswing goes on, and landed the yellow metal comfortably above $1,740. Not too spectacular, but the miners are still painting a bullish picture. I view the increasing appeal of the yellow metal (alongside the bullish sentiment hitting both Wall and Main Street) as part of the inflation trades, as decoupling from rising yields which increased really fast. As gold is arguably the first asset to move in advance of a key policy move, it might be sensing the Fed being forced (i.e. the markets betting against the Fed) to moderate its accomodative policy. Twist, taper – there are many ways short of raising the Fed funds rate that would help put pressure off the sliding long-dated Treasuries, not that these wouldn‘t be susceptible to move higher from oversold levels. And just like the yellow metal frontrunned the Fed before the repo crisis of autumn 2019, we might be seeing the same dynamic today as well.For the cynical and clairvoyant ones, we might sit here in 3-6 months over my notes on „the decoupling that wasn‘t“ - all because rates might snap back from the current almost 1.8% on the 10-year bond.For now, my Friday‘s words remain valid also today:(…) The greatest adjustment is arguably in the inflation projections – what and when is the Fed going to do before inflation raises its ugly head in earnest. There is still time, but the market is transitioning to a higher inflation environment already nonetheless. In moments of uncertainty that hasn‘t yet turned into sell first, ask questions later, let‘s remember the big picture. Plenty of fiscal support is hitting the economy, the Fed is very accomodative, and all the modern monetary theory inspired actions risk overheating the economy later this year. Rates are rising for the good reason of improving economy and its outlook, reflation (economic growth rising faster than inflation and inflation expectations) hasn‘t given way to all out inflation, and stocks with commodities remain in a secular bull market. We‘re in the decade of real assets outperforming paper ones, but that will become apparent only much later into the 2020s.The largely undisturbed rise in commodities got checked yesterday just as stocks did, but the higher timeframe trends (technical and fundamental drivers) hadn‘t changed, which will be apparent once the dust settles.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and InternalsFriday‘s session on understandably high volume and with some intraday volatility, closed with prices little changed. While the daily indicators are weakening, I see that as a temporary move that would be followed by higher highs in the index.Market breadth indicators are largely constructive, attesting to the broad base of the current S&P 500 advance. Even on little changed days such as Friday, both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have risen. I wouldn‘t be concerned with the weak new highs new lows here much as the sectoral structure remains positive – both technology (XLK ETF) and value stocks (VTV ETF) have rejected further intraday declines.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have turned higher, and so did their ratio to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY). This is a positive factor for further gains in stock prices.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsThe Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) isn‘t flashing any warning signs, and continues performing as robustly as the 500-strong index. Given the stage of the bull market we‘re at, smallcaps can be expected to start outperforming at some point in the future, just the same way their underperformance was over since early Nov. As regards emerging markets, their base building accompanied with Friday‘s upswing when faced with rising yields and solid dollar, is encouraging.Gold and SilverThe gold upswing is progressing along, and the daily consolidation in the miners (GDX ETF) isn‘t an issue when compared to a stronger gold performance. Friday was also characterized by a bigger upswing in the junior miners (GDXJ ETF) than in the seniors (GDX ETF), which is positive. The overall impression is of GDX readying a breakout above late Jan and early Feb lows, which bodes well for the precious metals sector as such next – especially given that this decoupling is happening while nominal yields aren‘t truly retreating.Both silver and platinum continue their base building while copper, the key ingredient within the copper to Treasury yields ratio, keeps bullishly consolidating. Silver miners aren‘t sending signals of underperformance, which means that the precious metals upswing dynamics remain still healthy on a closing basis. As regards premarket silver weakness, putting it into context with other markets is key – thus far, it‘s the odd weak one, so I am not jumping to conclusions yet.SummaryS&P 500 trading was undecided on Friday, yet didn‘t bring any clues invalidating the bullish outlook. Volatility remains low, but the put/call ratio has risen, even without a corresponding downswing (or danger of seeing one). The Fed doubting induced pullback appears more than likely in its closing stages.Gold had another resilient week, and the precious metals upswing examination bodes well for the move higher to still continue. Miners are leading, and the yellow metal keeps breaking the spell of higher Treasury yields, supported by copper not yielding ground either.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold Miners: Why Apparent Strength is Just a Facade

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.03.2021 16:41
Despite everyone saying the bottom is in, and that gold and miners are set for takeoff, the signs still point south. The real question: how low can they go?Let’s take a look at some price targets for where the GDX and GDXJ mining ETFs might land up.With the miners attempting to reclaim Pride Rock, it won’t be long until the GDX ETF is singing Hakuna Matata.Rising U.S. Treasury yields? No problem.A reinvigorated USD Index? Who cares.But while strength is often viewed through the eyes of the beholder, the GDX ETF is far from being The Lion King. Sure, its bravery in the face of familiar foes is reason for optimism. However, we’ve seen this movie before. While the recent rally may resemble Mufasa, beneath the surface, the GDX ETF’s tepid price action looks a lot like Simba.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the GDX ETF moved to the upper level of my initial target range. However, with the Mar. 19 close eliciting a sell signal from the stochastic oscillator (the black and red lines at the bottom section of the chart), a historical reenactment (repeat of the early-2021 performance) could deliver another sharp move lower.In addition, the shape of the early-January swoon is eerily similar to today’s price action. Case in point: back in January, the GDX ETF enjoyed a material daily rally, consolidated , then sunk like a stone. Because of that, the recent move higher and a few days of back-and-forth trading ( consolidation ) is nothing to write home about.To explain, I wrote on Mar. 18:Mining stocks followed gold higher, and they moved to the upper part of my previous target area, but not yet to its upper border. As you may recall, I mentioned the possibility of GDX moving to the $34 - $35 area and my original target for this rally was slightly below $34.The GDX ETF now encountered the strongest combination of resistance areas, while the Stochastic indicator moved above the 80-level. Technically, the situation is now much more bearish in the GDX ETF chart than it was at the beginning of the year. Back in January, the GDX ETF was only at the declining blue resistance line.Now, in addition to being very close to the above-mentioned line it’s also at:The neck level of the previously broken broad head and shoulders patternThe 50-day moving averageThe previous (late-February) highs.Consequently, it’s highly likely that we’ve either just seen a top or one is close at hand.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, while the S&P 500 is a key variable in the equation, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: the interim downside target is based on the assumption of a steady S&P 500 . If the stock market plunges, all bets are off. For context, when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF fell below $17, and it took less than two weeks for it to move as low from $29.67. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.If gold forms an interim bottom close to $1,600, this could also trigger a corrective upswing in the mining stocks, but it’s too early to say for sure whether that’s going to be the case or not.Also supporting the potential move, the GDX ETF’s head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes above – signals further weakness ahead.I wrote previously:Ever since the mid-September breakdown below the 50-day moving average , the GDX ETF was unable to trigger a substantial and lasting move above this MA. The times when the GDX was able to move above it were also the times when the biggest short-term declines started.(…)The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Turning to the junior gold miners , the GDXJ ETF will likely be the worst performer during the upcoming swoon. Why so? Well, due to its strong correlation with the S&P 500, a swift correction of U.S. equities will likely sink the juniors in the process.What’s more, erratic signals from the MACD indicator epitomizes the GDXJ ETF’s heightened volatility.Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Mar. 12:The above chart is a big red warning flag for beginner investors . The flag reads: “verify the efficiency of a given tool on a given market, before applying it”.The bottom part of the above chart features the MACD indicator . Normally, when the indicator line (black) crosses its signal line (red), we have a signal. If it’s moves above the signal line, it’s a buy sign, and if it moves below it, it’s a sell sign.But.If one actually looks at what happened after the previous “buy signals” in the recent months, they will see that in 5 out of 6 cases, these “buy signals” practically marked the exact tops, thus being very effective sell signals! In the remaining case, it was a good indication that the easy part of the corrective upswing was over.I’m not only describing the above due to its educational value, but because we actually saw a “buy signal” from the MACD, which was quite likely really a sell signal.More importantly though, the MACD indicator is far from a light switch. While false buy signals often precede material drawdowns, the reversals don’t occur overnight. As a result, it’s perfectly normal for the GDXJ ETF to trade sideways or slightly higher for a few days before moving lower. This is what we saw last weekBut how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, just like the GDX ETF, the S&P 500 is an important variable . However, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range and if the stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Some people (especially the permabulls that have been bullish on gold for all of 2021, suffering significant losses – directly and in missed opportunities) will say that the final bottom is already in. And this might very well be the case, but it seems highly unlikely to me. On a side note, please keep in mind that I’m neither a permabull nor a permabear for the precious metals sector, nor have I ever been. Let me emphasize that I’m currently bearish (for the time being), but earlier this month, we went long mining stocks on March 4 and exited this trade on March 11.Another reason (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) is the situation in the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM), which is not yet at the levels that triggered a major reversal in the past. The Index is now back above 27. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 17 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.Thus, with sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing had caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.But has it already run its course?Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that an unwinding of NASDAQ speculation could deliver a fierce blow to the gold miners. Back in 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ lost nearly 80% of its value, while gold miners lost more than 50% of their value.Please see below:Right now, the two long-term channels above (the solid blue and red dashed lines) show that the NASDAQ is trading well above both historical trends.Back in 1998, the NASDAQ’s last hurrah occurred after the index declined to its 200-day moving average (which was also slightly above the upper border of the rising trend channel marked with red dashed lines).And what happened in the first half of 2020? Well, we saw an identical formation.The similarity between these two periods is also evident if one looks at the MACD indicator . There has been no other, even remotely similar, situation where this indicator would soar so high.Furthermore, and because the devil is in the details, the gold miners’ 1999 top actually preceded the 2000 NASDAQ bubble bursting. It’s clear that miners (the XAU Index serves as a proxy) are on the left side of the dashed vertical line, while the tech stock top is on its right side. However, it’s important to note that it was stocks’ slide that exacerbated miners’ decline. Right now, the mining stocks are already declining, and the tech stocks continue to rally. Two decades ago, tech stocks topped about 6 months after miners. This might spoil the party of the tech stock bulls, but miners topped about 6 months ago…Also supporting the 2000 analogue, today’s volume trends are eerily similar. If you analyze the red arrows on the chart above, you can see that the abnormal spike in the MACD indicator coincided with an abnormal spike in volume. Thus, mounting pressure implies a cataclysmic reversal could be forthcoming.Interestingly, two decades ago, miners bottomed more or less when the NASDAQ declined to its previous lows, created by the very first slide. We have yet to see the “first slide” this time. But, if the history continues to repeat itself and tech stocks decline sharply and then correct some of the decline, when they finally move lower once again, we might see THE bottom in the mining stocks. Of course, betting on the above scenario based on the XAU-NASDAQ link alone would not be reasonable, but if other factors also confirm this indication, this could really take place.Either way, the above does a great job at illustrating the kind of link between the general stock market and the precious metals market that I expect to see also this time. PMs and miners declined during the first part of the stocks’ (here: tech stocks) decline, but then they bottomed and rallied despite the continuation of stocks’ freefall.Even more ominous, the MACD indicator is now eliciting a clear sell signal . And displaying a reading that preceded the dot-com bust in 2000, the NASDAQ Composite – and indirectly, the PMs – continue to sail toward the perfect storm.As further evidence, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio has broken below critical support.Please see below:When the line above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.For further context, the ratio is mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018. After breaking below its rising support line, the ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete today – with the ratio rallying back to its initial breakdown level (now resistance) last week – a sharp reversal could occur sooner rather than later.In addition, because last week’s bounce was merely a technical development, the HUI Index’s recent strength is nothing to write home about. What’s more, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme again, the outlook for the PMs remains profoundly bearish.Moreover, please note that the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline at all (it just closed the week at 3913.10), the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.In conclusion, with the miners’ recent confidence likely to fade, it’s only a matter of time before they show their true colors. With the USD Index raring to go and U.S. Treasury yields seemingly exploding on a daily basis, the PMs recent move higher is akin to swimming against a strengthening current: while they’re making progress, each stroke requires more and more energy. In addition, if a drawdown of U.S. equities enters the equation, the metaphor will be akin to swimming against a tsunami. The bottom line? Long positions in the PMs offers more risk than reward over the next several weeks or so. However, once the medium-term climax is complete, it will be smooth sailing once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Will Trump-Biden Twin Deficit Support Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.03.2021 17:48
Twin deficits could negatively affect the U.S. economy, thereby supporting the yellow metal.Twins. Many parents will tell you that they double the blessing. But economists would disagree, claiming that twins – i.e., twin deficits – could be negative for the economy. The recent deterioration in the U.S. current account and fiscal balance has sparked renewed debate over the twin deficit and its impact on the exchange rate – and the price of gold.A twin deficit occurs when large fiscal deficits coexist with big trade deficits . The former happens when the government spends more money than it raises with taxes, while the latter is the result of imports exceeding exports. A historical example of the U.S. twin deficit occurred in the 1980s, when a significant expansion in the federal budget deficit accompanied a sharp deterioration in the nation’s current account balance. According to the Institute for International Economics’ report , “from 1980 to 1986, the federal budget deficit increased from 2.7 percent of GDP to 5 percent of GDP ($220 billion) and the current account deficit increased from 0 to 3.5 percent of GDP ($153 billion).”Another example might be the 2000s. According to the New York Fed’s research paper , from 2001 to 2005, the U.S. current account and fiscal balances plunged by 3 and 4 percent of GDP , respectively. So, there is some correlation between these two. And some economists even believe that there is a causal relationship, i.e., that increases in budget deficits cause an increase in current account deficits. The link is believed to work as follows: higher deficits increase consumption, so imports expand and the trade deficit widens. However, both deficits actually have a common root: the increase in the money supply . When the Fed creates money ex nihilo to monetize the federal debt , it enables America to both borrow and consume more goods from abroad.Regardless, in absolute terms, these old twin deficits were miniscule compared to the current one. As the chart below shows, the U.S. current account deficit (green line) has expanded significantly under Trump (despite all the trade wars !) and is approaching the historical record of $800 billion seen in 2006.But what happened to the U.S. trade deficit is nothing compared to the fiscal deficit! As you can see in the chart above, it ballooned from $984 billion in fiscal year of 2019 to $3.1 trillion in 2020!So, if we simply add these two deficits together, we will see that that the U.S. twin deficits have reached a record level . As the chart below shows, it has expended from $850 billion in 2014 to $3.8 trillion in 2020!Now, the question is how the twin deficits could affect the price of gold. Well, from looking at the chart above, it’s hard to tell. Gold rallied in the 1970s, when the twin deficit was miniscule, while it entered a bear phase when the twin deficit started to increase. However, the yellow metal skyrocketed both in the 2000s and in the 2020s, when the twin deficit ballooned.The key issue is what distinguishes the 1980s from the 2000s (and 2020)? I’ll tell you. In the former period, expansionary fiscal policy coincided with tight monetary policy . In consequence, the real interest rates increased, which encouraged capital inflows and strengthened the U.S. dollar. So, gold was melting.Luckily for the yellow metal, this time, the easy fiscal policy is accompanied by the accommodative monetary policy . The Fed has already slashed the federal funds rate and it’s conducting quantitative easing to suppress the bond yields . Actually, some analysts believe that the U.S. central bank will implement the yield curve control to prevent any significant increases in the interest rates .Hence, the combination of American monetary drunkenness and fiscal irresponsibility that largely contributed to the great expansion in the twin deficits should result in the weakening of the greenback . This, at least, is what we observed in the 2000s, as the chart below shows.And this depreciation of the U.S. dollar should ultimately support gold prices , especially if we see reflation and the next commodity boom. It’s true that since its peak in August 2020, gold has been positively correlated with the greenback, but the inverse relationship can be restored one day. Investors shouldn’t forget that the dollar is not the only driver of gold prices – other factors also play a role. In the second half of the past year, both the real yields and the risk appetite increased, which outweighed the impact of the weakening dollar. Luckily, the Fed is ready to prevent any significant upward pressure on the Treasury yields coming from the twin deficits. That’s good for gold.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
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After The Fed Week – What's Next? Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 22.03.2021 18:41
In the first part of this research article, we shared more detail related to the Excess Phase Peak technical pattern that is setting up in the NASDAQ and to highlight the validity of our Gann/Fibonacci Technical research which suggested a peak in the markets may set up sometime after April 1, 2021.  We've received many questions and comments from our readers and followers related to these articles.  Many people seem to believe we are calling for an April 1 market peak based on this research, yet the technical patterns we are highlighting suggest a longer-term market peak may already be setting up. In this second part of our more detailed “what next” article, my research team and I will highlight exactly why we believe traders and investors need to be prepared for an extended technical topping pattern and how it will likely set up over the next 60 to 90+ days.  Let's continue our research from Part I and go into more detail related to this technical setup.In Part I, we focused on the NASDAQ and how the recent downside price rotation may align with our Gann/Fibonacci research as well as align with the Excess Phase Topping pattern highlighted in our November 2020 research.  Now, we're going to focus on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and our Custom US Stock Market Index showing how these two market sectors have yet to react like the NASDAQ already has.Dow Jones Has Yet To Break Key Price ChannelLooking at the chart below, we can see that the INDU has yet to break the YELLOW upward price trend line.  We  have not seen price move below this support channel yet, thus we don't have any confirmation that a weakening in price trend is taking place.  In fact, recently the INDU has rallied higher over the last few weeks as capital has shifted away from the NASDAQ and into various other sectors. Next, we believe the INDU still has another 3% to 5% to rally further before reaching the GREEN 1.618% Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc on the chart below.  This suggests the INDU may continue to rally a bit further before reaching resistance while the NASDAQ may attempt a more moderate price rally within the sideways (#B) Flagging channel.  This setup suggests the INDU and SPY have not yet reacted to price weakness like the NASDAQ already has.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!We've drawn a MAGENTA line on this chart highlighting what we believe a “technical breakdown” in price will look like for the INDU.  First, a rollover top sets up, prompting a downward price trend to set up the sideways Flagging trend.  After 4 to 8+ weeks of sideways Flagging, a broad downtrend will take place where price will fall -10% to -15% - targeting the CYAN support level near $29,000.  Much like the NASDAQ, this critical support level is the last line of defense before a bigger breakdown in price may occur – possibly resulting in a very deep price correction.Custom US Stock Market Index Chart Mirrors INDUThis final Custom US Stock Market Index Weekly chart, below, shows a similar type of setup as the INDU.  These Custom Index charts are tools we use to help gauge the overall market trends and possible technical setups.  They help to normalize price trends and variances between the major US indexes and provide a different perspective of price on a chart.The first thing we notice when looking at this chart is that the Custom US Stock Market Index has yet to break the YELLOW upward price channel – just like the INDU chart.  Secondly, we can see the Custom US Stock Market Index chart is much closer to the heavy MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc than the INDU chart is – this suggests there may only be a 3% to 5% upside potential left in the markets related to any potential rally attempt.  Readers need to understand this does not mean that markets are limited to +3% to +5% at this stage – many sectors may trend +10% or more while the Custom US Stock Market Index chart rallies only 1.5% or so.  The stock market is a “market of stocks” - not a single entity related to the Custom US Stock Market Index chart.  Therefore, we may see various rally ranges in various sectors while we see more muted trends in some of these major indexes.The last thing we want to point out on this chart is the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that originates from February 2020 (pre-COVID-19 highs).  It appears there is a high likelihood of a weakening uptrend on this chart after April 15, 2021.  It also appears there is a likely APEX inflection point near May 5 through May 10.  This APEX in price may become a key date for a potential breakdown in the trend on this Custom US Stock Market Index chart.Overall, what we are seeing on this chart is that we have yet to break below the YELLOW upward price trend line and we are nearing the key Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc levels – this suggests the markets may be nearing a period of consolidation and/or weakening upward price trending. The key to all of these setups is the process of the Excess Phase Peak setup - where price must complete the four phases (A through D) before finally attempting a larger breakdown event (#E).Additionally, traders should stay keenly aware that various sectors will likely continue to trend in wide ranges with varying degrees of trend slopes while this extended pattern continues to setup.  On this Custom US Stock Market Index chart, we are suggesting that the #C breakdown event (targeting #D), may take place in July or August 2021.  This suggests we have about 3+ months of rotational sideways trending to navigate before the extended Excess Phase Peak #C breakdown event takes place.As these trends continue to setup, we want you to understand how various opportunities for trend will continue to setup over the next few months in various sectors and indexes.  These price rotations will likely prompt 8% to 25% price trends in a number of the best performing sectors and symbols.  The key to finding and targeting this success is to know which sectors/trends are have the highest probability for success.  That is what our Best Asset Now strategy does for us – it shows us when to engage with the market trends and which assets are the best performing assets to invest in.Don't miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months.  2021 and beyond are going to be incredible years for traders.  What we expect to see is not the same type of market trend that we have experienced over the past 8+ years – this is a completely different set of market dynamics. You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribersHave a great week!
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – Awaiting A Breakout

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.03.2021 07:47
EURUSD consolidates near the support area The US dollar stayed subdued as Treasury yields retreated on Monday, relieving pressure on its European counterpart. The pair has fallen back from the double top at 1.1990 after it went into an overbought situation. The euro is looking for support while hovering above the major demand area around 1.1830. The current consolidation is an opportunity to build up momentum. The resistance at 1.1990 is a tough nut to crack but a bullish breakout could send the price towards 1.2050. GER 30 retreats after being overbought Equity markets are treading water at the start of the week as investors remain cautious about the inflation outlook. The DAX 30 has pulled back from the all-time high at 14810 after the RSI continuously ventured into the overbought area. Instead of chasing the momentum buyers may likely wait for a discount before jumping on the trend. The previous low at 14400 coincides with the rising trendline and could be a key zone of congestion where trend-followers would bid up the index. USOIL recovers from daily support The oil price has recouped some losses from concerns about vaccine rollouts and new lockdowns in parts of Europe. The RSI has recovered into the neutral zone as the price found support in the demand area around 58.50 on the daily chart. WTI is now at a crossroad as a deeper retracement could trigger a reversal. Otherwise, what is happening could be a mere three-wave correction. As for now, the 38.2% Fibonacci level (62.00) is the next resistance. The uptrend may only resume if buyers can push through 64.80 once again.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Dangerous Game of Chicken

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.03.2021 15:32
Monday‘s higher stock prices don‘t mean that the sky is the limit now – there were quite a few signs of weakness in related markets as well. The put/call ratio moved lower agains, and so did VIX. But it‘s the market internals that are the giveaway sign – technology has been the predictable upswing driver, reflecting my yesterday‘s thoughts on the rising yields pressure:(…) One daily move doesn‘t make a trend change likely though, especially since the Mar pace of TLT decline is on par with Feb‘s and higher than in Jan. While Treasuries paused in early Mar, they‘re now once again as extended vs. their 50-day moving average as before.And that poses a challenge for interest rate sensitive stocks and to some degree also for tech - while I expect value to continue to lead over growth, technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. And it‘s true that the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.We got that reprieve yesterday, and tech jumped on board enthusiastically, while other usual beneficiaries didn‘t – utilities didn‘t move, but at least consumer staples swung higher. Coupled with the value stocks mostly treading water yesterday, it makes for a weak daily market breadth. The key events of today and tomorrow are the Congress testimonies – while Powell is set to downplay inflation, inflation expectations and still overall elevated / rising long-dated Treasury yields, it‘s my view that the market is again squaring the bets, best seen in the commodities lately (think Thursday and today) – but I look for the Fed to project the same messaging it did on Wednesday, and perhaps double down on it.I don‘t view the market as in danger of a deflationary collapse, not when the stimulus avalanche is hitting and the Fed is reluctant to change course. I am not looking for them to telegraphs such a turn today or in the weeks to come, and that would mean recovery in the commodity prices.Gold is an island of relative, temporary peace, but the miners are concerningly weakening – both gold and silver ones. Darkening clouds here regardless of the support the copper to 10-year Treasury yields can offer. Still, the yellow metal has decoupled from rising nominal yields to a remarkable degree lately.Let‘s quote yesterday‘s observations:(…) As gold is arguably the first asset to move in advance of a key policy move, it might be sensing the Fed being forced (i.e. the markets betting against the Fed) to moderate its accomodative policy. Twist, taper – there are many ways short of raising the Fed funds rate that would help put pressure off the sliding long-dated Treasuries, not that these wouldn‘t be susceptible to move higher from oversold levels. And just like the yellow metal frontrunned the Fed before the repo crisis of autumn 2019, we might be seeing the same dynamic today as well.For the cynical and clairvoyant ones, we might sit here in 3-6 months over my notes on „the decoupling that wasn‘t“ - all because rates might snap back from the current almost 1.8% on the 10-year bond.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookBoth the volume and upper knot are short-term suspect on yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing – I wouldn‘t be surprised by continued consolidation unless the testimonies today and tomorrow, bring a game changer.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF), and the volume comparison to preceding day looks here better than in stocks. Still, it can‘t be said the move either in HYG or in investment grade corporate bonds (LQD) was a bullish rush. These two markets merely joined in the long-dated Treasuries recovery, not signalling return of animal spirits.Technology, Financials and UtilitiesSuch a sectoral view of rising tech (XLK ETF), for a few sessions weakening financials (XLF ETF) and unconvinced utilities (XLU ETF) isn‘t a bullish constellation to drive the 500-strong index reliably ahead at breakneck speed really.Gold in the SpotlightSimilarly to Mar 12, the precious metals upswing is being challenged – miners (GDX ETF) are underperforming. Today‘s session will tell whether we‘re witnessing consolidation, or a renewed rollover to the downside, the chances of which have risen yesterday.The weekly view remains positive – the pace of gold‘s decline became less sensitive to nominal yields move, turning higher before these did, and currently not making much headway. Still, that‘s arguably the clearest sign of the turning tide in the gold market.Silver, Silver Miners and CopperSilver is getting under pressure on rising volume, and its miners are declining too, highlighting increasing risks to the white metal. Disregarding today‘s premarket action, that alone makes it worthwhile to dial back (take profits off the table) in the long silver short gold spread I introduced you to on Feb 12. It‘s that the degree of momentary commodities underperformance looks like taking a meaningful toll on the white metal (and that concerns oil as well, which would turn short-term bearish with a breakdown below $57 to $57.50 on a closing basis and on high volume without a prominent lower knot.SummaryS&P 500 upswing isn‘t as strong as it might seem, and today‘s deceptively small downswing has the potential to turn ugly on Fed missteps. Seeing these happen, I don‘t view as a leading scenario for today or tomorrow, however.Gold and for that matter silver bulls too, have to prove shortly that the upswing isn‘t taking more than a pause – that is, that it isn‘t rolling over. The signals from the commodities space aren‘t encouraging, and platinum trading isn‘t helping to clarify the outlook for today‘s session either.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Bearish Breakout

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.03.2021 07:31
GBPUSD cuts through major supportThe pound saw fresh sell-off despite a fall in the UK’s unemployment rate as average earnings, an indication of inflation remained subpar.Two failed attempts to breach the psychological level of 1.4000 have put the short side back in control. The bearish breakout below 1.3800 has intensified the selling pressure by triggering stop-losses and would call 1.3650 as the next target.In the meantime, as the RSI dipped into the oversold area, a brief pullback to around 1.3850 might fill more sell orders.XAUUSD breaks out of consolidation rangeGold came under pressure as the US dollar claws back losses from previous sessions.On the daily chart, the price is entangled between the 20 and 30-day moving averages which act as resistance after the February sell-off.Zooming into the hourly chart, the precious metal has been struggling near the supply area 1750-55.The narrowing trading range between the resistance and the rising trendline is a prelude to a breakout, and a close below 1728 would resume the downtrend with 1700 as the target.SPX 500 slides on profit-takingAs a reminiscence of the trade war, brewing international tensions with China could derail investor sentiment once again. After a two-week-long rally, the S&P 500 has retreated from its peak at 3989 in search of stronger support.Divergence between the price action and the RSI was a sign of exhaustion. Then successive breakouts below 3936 and 3911 prompted short-term traders to take profit.The latest rally could be a dead cat bounce unless it achieves a new high. To the downside, 3860 would be the next stop.
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Bitcoin, no genius required

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 24.03.2021 09:44
Why do we mention this? Bitcoin is in a massive uptrend right now, and we are about to see another leg up. Typically, the choice of participating or staying sidelined is with more minor consequences than this time around. We are in a wealth transferring market cycle. An event happening typically every 93 years. An event at the end of a fiat currency dissolving into hyperinflation and leaving many in despair. E.g. have you noticed your grocery bill being over 20% higher and mass media not mentioning it? Get informed and not mislead and do not wrongly be instructed that this bitcoin ship has sailed and there are no ways to participate at these levels. They will look timid in a few years to come.S&P-500 Index, Weekly Chart, Warning signs of a larger cycle ending:S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 19th, 2021.We posted a similar to the above chart on February 19th in our weekly Silver chartbook to indicate a possible extended stock market with a more than typical retracement possibility.S&P-500 Index, Weekly Chart, Double top with Indicator divergence confirmation:S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2021.Now only five weeks later, we see the first possible cracks. The weekly chart shows a possible directional change with divergences in both a directional indicator (Stochastic in yellow) and a momentum oscillator (Commodity Channel index in white), confirming this suspicion through divergences. Hence, we might get a trend reversal over the next few weeks or months. BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Possible breakout (Short to midterm):Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.While due to the need to cover margin calls an actual market crash would temporarily drag all asset classes down, in the early stages of a trend direction change, money would flow from the stock market into safety asset classes like Bitcoin. The chart above shows Bitcoin in a consolidation phase that looks to resolve through a breakout to the upside. Besides, we find fractal volume transaction support at the US$50,870 price level.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, no genius required:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2021.The weekly chart of Bitcoin illustrates the health of the recent trend extension. Price is trading above directional support (yellow trendline) and within the norm of Fibonacci retracement levels.Bitcoin, no genius required:Systems promising more than a hundred percent returns earned within a year, sell at exorbitant prices. You do not need to have such returns as compound interest takes very well care for those getting consistent. Why would vendors sell these unique methodologies instead of making their own fortunes with them?In short, you need high-quality principle-based guidelines, apply hard work and be independent of the good opening of others versus getting fooled by “rich quick” schemes and fool’s gold promises. There is no genius required, just good old hard work like in any other field that requires mastery for competition level.If trading were a mathematical competition, we would find all rocket scientists to be the winners in this game. But the is far from the truth. Instead, it is precisely the opposite based on a simple principle distinction. The mathematical mind seeks a precise and optimal solution. It aims at a reduction to a constant. This approach fails the high degree of aspects defining the human psyche and all the grey zones that come with it. It is much more essential to find a trading approach that fits your personality.Consequently, eliminate any system purchase. One needs to work refining one’s own path. One needs to find a niche in the time frame, market, and volatility to one’s specific personal makeup.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
One Year From Stocks Bottom

One Year From Stocks Bottom

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2021 14:37
Next edition of this newsletter, we’re going to do a special on REITs. We will discuss which real estate sectors could see significant recovery after a brutal 2020.Which real estate sectors could be long-term solid bets? There are a few you might not be thinking of, and we will also discuss why REITs could be a great hedge against rising bond yields and inflation scares.Do you realize what Tuesday (Mar. 23) marked? One year since the market bottomed. Can you believe that it’s already been a year? Calling it a roller coaster is an understatement.One of the most crucial market concepts is that the market never looks back. It is a forward-looking instrument. Talking about the past as it relates to the market really doesn’t do anyone any good.However, after the year we’ve had, it’s essential to take a breath, reflect, and see what lessons we can learn from.Ethan Wolff-Mann, a Senior Writer for Yahoo! Finance, put out a great article, “ What we have learned in the 12 months since ‘the bottom ’” and discusses several key points:‘Every crisis is the same’Panic can hurt a portfolioYou genuinely don’t know what’s going to happenRebalancing comes out as a huge winnerAs we sit here a year later, we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Vaccines are weeks away from being available to all adults over 16 in the U.S., while COVID numbers continue to drop. But we are still confronting the reality of a pandemic that is still raging in Europe and other parts of the world. Inflation signs are flashing, and unstable bond yields are scaring tech investors every few days. But keep the above lessons in mind.My personal biggest takeaway from the last year that I have applied since the several market downturns we’ve had thus far in 2021? Nobody can predict the future and never ever try to time the market. Many investors a year ago didn’t stick it out through the volatility and lost out. Some panic sold near the bottom and never bought back in.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:A year after we bottomed, there is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. More volatility is likely, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Russell 2000- Time to Pounce?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn during the second half of February. I also realized I may have broken my own rule about “not timing the market.” I’ve wanted to buy the Russell 2000 forever but never thought it dipped hard enough (whenever it did). I was waiting for it to at least approach a correction.But once I looked at the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) chart, I had an epiphany. I noticed that almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.The chart does not lie. Look at it above. Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.Fast forward to Tuesday (Mar. 23). The Russell 2000 saw its worst day since February 25- and I loved every second of it. I felt almost similar to how I felt over the weekend during March Madness when I correctly called 13 seed Ohio to upset 4 seed defending NCAA champion Virginia. Finally, after weeks of waiting for a time to pounce on the Russell 2000 and missing golden opportunities, I think the time has come. We’re back right below its 50-day.Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.I’m finally switching this to a BUY.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as inflation fears and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Why Retreating Yields Don‘t Lift All Boats

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.03.2021 15:09
Stocks declined but won‘t they run higher next? Tuesday‘s downswing changed precious little, and the Congressional testimony was a non-event. The key happening was in long-dated Treasuries, which rose yet again – the much awaited rebound is here, and brings consequences to quite a few S&P 500 sectors.The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise. This will hold true for as long as TLT is at least somewhat rising:(…) technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. ...the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.Technology though declined yesterday, and so did value stocks. Many markets went through selloffs yesterday, among commodities most notably oil. While nothing has substantially changed, we got a serious whiff of risk-off environment, pertaining precious metals too.Especially concerning was the miners underperformance, given that none of the moves indicated accumulation within the sector. Reason number two to expect PMs short-term vulnerability was ignorance of retreating yields that stretches a bit further below what can be viewed as a run of the mill PMs upswing correction. A short-term crack in the TLT decoupling dam that can still be reversed even though it doesn‘t look likely at the moment – better not to wave it off it though.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookRegardless of yesterday‘s setback, the outlook in stocks hasn‘t changed. Once the current corrective move is over and value reassumes leadership, expect the gains to be more pronounced than what we would experience rather shortly.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) moved higher, and in the latter, the upswing was backed by a rising volume. The bond markets are coming back into favor, taking a little luster off the stock market appeal on the daily basis.Nowhere is yields influence better seen than in financials (XLF ETF), which give the impression of expecting futher retreat in yields, and haven‘t thus far reached any meaningful support. That would provide headwinds to the S&P 500 advance, especially as it translates into other cyclicals.Gold and SilverGiven the above chart, my yesterday‘s words ring even truer seeing Tuesday‘s closing prices:(…) Similarly to Mar 12, the precious metals upswing is being challenged – miners (GDX ETF) are underperforming. Today‘s session will tell whether we‘re witnessing consolidation, or a renewed rollover to the downside, the chances of which have risen yesterday.The bearish turn is just as visible in silver and silver miners, and it would be premature to declare it a bullish divergence. Given that silver bulls didn‘t attempt a rebound, and volume isn‘t consistent with capitulation, the risks to the downside materially increased.Precious Metals and CopperThe full precious metals sector got under serious pressure yesterday, and so did copper. Given the upswing having rolled over to the downside yesterday (especially when viewed through $HUI:$GOLD metrics), the bulls have to prove themselves through a stronger action than a dead cat bounce.SummaryS&P 500 upswing has better prospects of continuing than not, and the volatility and put/call ratio readings confirm we aren‘t in for a true setback really. The stock bull market is far from having made a top, and will continue grinding higher.Gold and silver decline going hand in hand with even weaker miners, means that the upswing was effectively ended – the only thing that can bring it back, is renewed miners outperformance and expected alignment of the yellow metal to Treasury yield moves, which is absent at the moment.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Mining ETFs: Headed for Their Next Slide?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2021 16:34
The mining ETFs (the GDX and GDXJ) have hit resistance and look tired. After their corrective rally, a slide looks promising. The miners are done correcting and if they were at a water amusement park, would they head for the lazy river? How about the wave pool? Nah… they’d be headed straight for the slides. If you’ve been waiting for a high-quality sign that the next big move in the precious metals sector is underway – you just got it.There are days on the markets when nothing happens, there are days when what happens is visible only to some ( like Monday’s session ), and there are days when the market’s signals are crystal-clear – as if the charts were practically screaming at the person examining them. Yesterday, was one of the latter kind of days.Without further ado, let’s take a look at the key development that we just saw in the precious metals’ world – the big decline in the GDX ETF – proxy for mining stocks.After the tiny breakdown that I described yesterday (Mar. 24), the GDX ETF declined significantly, and it even opened the session with a price gap. If you look at the left side of the chart, you’ll see that this is the way in which the big January decline started. In the next 2 months, the value of the GDX ETF declined by over $8.But is the corrective upswing really over? Did the move higher end at a price level that was likely to stop it? Yes, definitely so.On March 10 (when we were already long), I wrote the following :Even though gold moved lower in early March, gold miners stopped declining after reaching my target area based several techniques – most importantly the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2020 rally, and the previous lows and highs. Just as miners’ relative weakness had previously heralded declines for the entire precious metals sector, their strength meant that a rally was about to start. And that’s just what we saw yesterday (Mar. 9).Ultimately, it seems that the above corrections will result in the GDX ETF moving to about $34 or so.The resistance levels in the $34 - $35 area are provided by:The late-February 2020 highThe rising neck level of the previously completed head and shoulders patternThe analogy to how big miners’ correction was in April (assuming that the mirror similarity continues)The declining blue resistance lineThe 50-day moving averageConsequently, it makes sense for the GDX ETF to slide form here, as the corrective rally that was likely to take place is most likely already over.The clearly visible sell signal from the stochastic indicator (lower part of the chart) confirms the above as well.Having said that, let’s take a look at even bigger decline in the GDXJ ETF – proxy for junior mining stocks.While senior gold miners declined 2.54% yesterday, junior miners declined by 4.04%.The remarkable thing about both declines is that they took place almost without gold’s help. GLD ended yesterday’s session just 0.73% lower. The general stock market – another market that could temporarily impact the prices of mining stocks – declined by 0.76% yesterday.In comparison, the declines that we saw in both proxies for mining stocks were huge. This is very important , because the recent declines in the precious metals sector and the recent rallies in the precious metals sector were preceded by – respectively – the relative weakness of miners compared to gold and the relative strength of miners compared to gold.What we saw yesterday is a crystal-clear sign that the waiting for the next big move lower is over.This month’s “buy” signal from the MACD indicator seems to have once again marked a great shorting opportunity. On March 12 , I wrote the following:The above chart is a big red warning flag for beginner investors . The flag reads: “verify the efficiency of a given tool on a given market, before applying it”.The bottom part of the above chart features the MACD indicator . Normally, when the indicator line (black) crosses its signal line (red), we have a signal. If it’s moves above the signal line, it’s a buy sign, and if it moves below it, it’s a sell sign.But.If one actually looks at what happened after the previous “buy signals” in the recent months, they will see that in 5 out of 6 cases, these “buy signals” practically marked the exact tops, thus being very effective sell signals! In the remaining case, it was a good indication that the easy part of the corrective upswing was over.I’m not only describing the above due to its educational value, but because we actually saw a “buy signal” from the MACD, which was quite likely really a sell signal.I recently added that the MACD indicator is far from a light switch. While false buy signals often precede material drawdowns, the reversals don’t occur overnight. As a result, it’s perfectly normal for the GDXJ ETF to trade sideways or slightly higher for a few days before moving lower. This is what we saw last week.And yesterday, we saw the 4%+ daily slide, which means that everyone who shorted the market based on the MACD’s “buy” signal is already profitable.Once again – please remember to check whether a given technique or indicator actually worked for your favorite market before applying it and entering a trade.Another market that appears to confirm the bearish narrative is silver.Silver moved lower in a more visible manner, which might be surprising to some investors (especially those that went long based on the “ silver short squeeze ” movement almost two months ago), but it’s not surprising to me. If the history repeats itself to a considerable degree, then it’s not odd to see the same kind of performance that we saw in the similar stage of a given price move.In this case, I already discussed the self-similarity present in the silver market, and I marked the similar patterns with red rectangles. The current situation seems similar to early March 2020, when silver was just starting a major decline while being between its 50- and 200-day moving average. Let’s keep in mind that gold actually moved to a new high in early March, and silver was very far from doing so. Back then, silver underperformed, so it’s no wonder that it’s underperforming right now. While the silver shortage was the topic of the day for many days about two months ago, it seems that more bearish headlines will soon be more popular.Please note that a move below ~$24 in silver will imply that everyone who bought in late January or February, when silver was particularly popular is already in the red. As silver then moves even lower, those investors will most likely feel significant emotional pressure to sell – and some will, most likely making the decline bigger and sharper.Gold seems to have topped in the lower part of my target area and the levels reached by its price as well as the levels reached by the stochastic indicator seem to indicate that the top is indeed in.Gold reversed after failing to break above the declining short-term resistance line, relatively close to its triangle-vertex-based reversal , which is a bearish combination. The stochastic (lower part of the chart) didn’t move to the 80 level, but it was very close to it and it was the proximity of this level that was enough for the tops to form in quite a few previous cases – including the November 2020 top. Based on yesterday’s closing price, we didn’t see a sell signal in this indicator yet, but once we see just a little more weakness, we’ll get this confirmation. Based on what we saw in mining stocks yesterday, it seems that we’ll see it shortly.Right now, traders are likely taking the wait-and-see approach with regard to the USD Index. The latter just moved to its previous yearly highs. It’s already after verification of the breakout above the February highs, so it seems that it’s ready to break higher any day – or hour – now. When that happens, I expect the rally to take the USDX to at least 94, perhaps to 94.5 or 95. The September 2020 high is 94.8, so this level is the most likely upside target for the short term. I don’t think that the rally in the USD Index would end once it reaches the proximity of 95, but that’s when we might see another breather (perhaps after a breakout above this level and perhaps before the breakout, it’s too early to tell at this time).All in all, it seems that the next move lower in the precious metals market is already underway and that we’re going to see new 2021 lows in gold and mining stocks in the next several weeks or days.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

How to Stop Being Scared or Shaken Out Of Winning Trades

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.03.2021 23:29
The markets really frightened a lot of people in the last month. We've received lots of emails and comments from people wondering what's happening in the markets and why thedeeper downtrend didn't prompt new trade triggers. Well, the quick answer is “this downtrend did prompt new BAN trade triggers and this pullback is still quite mild compared to historical examples”. Allow me to explain my thinking.The recent FOMC meeting as well as the expiration of the future contracts usually prompts some broad market concerns. Many professional traders refuse to trade over the 7+ days near an FOMC meeting – the volatility levels are usually much higher and this can throw some trading strategies into chaos. Our BAN Trader Pro strategy handles volatility quite well most of the time.Recently, theBAN Trader Pro strategyinitiated new trade triggers of subscribers and myself. Our members are engaged in the best-performing assets for the potential upside price rally that may take place over the next couple of months. Our strategies target opportunities based on proven quantitative technology – not emotions and use proven position management to maximize gains while reducing drawdowns.Transportation Index Daily Chart Is BullishThis leading index shows early strength in the market with an upside target of $14,668. That is a 3.5%-4.5% upside move ahead of us.Recently, we've seen some substantial support in the Transportation Index that aligns with our BAN Trader Pro strategy. The rally in the Transportation Index, which usually leads the US economy by at least 2 to 4 months, suggests the markets are actively seeking out a support level/momentum base for another rally phase. Using a Fibonacci Extension tool, we can clearly see the TRAN has another 3.5% to 4.5% to rally before reaching the 100% measured move target near $14,668. This level represents a full 100% rally phase equaling the initial rally from levels near $12,000 which started back in February 2021.Dow Jones Industrial Index Daily Chart is BullishThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has already reached the 100% Fibonacci Measured move – and broken above that level. If the markets rally from this recent pullback, webelieve a 4% to 5%+ rally in the Dow index is very possible. This type of bullish price trend suggests a target level near $34,000.One thing, many traders fail to consider is these 4% to 5% rallies in the Transportation Index and/or the Dow Jones Industrial Average will likely prompt an 8% to 20%+ rally in some of the best-performing assets/sectors. For example, after the bottom in early February, during a time when the index rallied less than 1%, the best-performing assets we tracked rallied more than 7% to 25%. The strength of these top-performing sectors/symbols can be very powerful – even while the US major indexes are drifting sideways.If the Transportation and Dow Index rally 4% or more over the next few weeks, then some of the best performing sectors will strong gains in our favor. It depends on how strong these top-performing sectors react to the underlying momentum associated with each symbol though.How to Avoid Emotional Trading DecisionsTrading based on emotions can lead to early, and sometimes foolish, entry and exits of positions. The market has a way of faking/shaking price which often prompt traders to react to the 2% to 4% swings in the markets as if they are catastrophic. Some of the best advice we can offer active traders other than becoming part of our trading group and pre-market analysis and trade alerts are..._ Trust your system/strategy and follow it from entry to exit trigger._ Define your risks and run the strategy efficiently_ Develop ways to identify andresolve strategy failure early and often_ Trading involves risks – learn to execute the strategy within your risk parameters (position sizing)_ Don't let emotions control you. Trade rules should protect you during high & low volatility conditions.If you don't have a strategy and can't see yourself sticking to these simple rules, then maybe it is time to find a better strategy or to attempt to develop some of these tactics into your existing strategy. You can follow me to success with my ETF Swing Trading Strategy, or our Options Trading Strategy at any time if you want all the work done for you.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now|soyou don’t miss our next special report!Far too many people get lucky with a strategy then leverage their trading because they feel they will never fail. Failure of any strategy, often represented as the largest drawdown amount, should be multiplied by at least 3x when comparing risks. Just because your strategy showed one period of drawdown representing a -$5,500 loss does not mean that type of price activity is an isolated event. That type of drawdown could happen repeatedly, over a very short period of time, representing a -$16,500loss.The strongest strategy components are those that help to contain losses, manage risks and allow for the protection of capital. Remember, “living to trade another day” is far more important than huge gains off of one or two trades followed by a string he big losers that blow up your account.In closing, get ready for a recovery in stock prices. With the indexes poised to move higher by another 3.5% - 5% before reaching the next 100% measured move suggests some sectors will post spectacular gains. Don't let emotions dictate your decisions – run your strategy (or find a better strategy to trade with). The best performing sectors/symbols usually continue to outperform the US major indexes when trending higher.Don't miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months. 2021 and beyond are going to be incredible years for traders and investors. Staying ahead of these sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success. As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher. Learn how BAN Trader Pro can help you spot the best trade setups and deliver alerts to your phone and inbox.We've built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Risk-off Is Back Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.03.2021 15:44
Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness instead of muddling through in a tight range. Especially the sectoral reaction to still retreating yields, is worrying. Yesterday‘s session means a reality check for prior reasonable expectations:(…) The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise. Tech faltered yesterday, and neither the other sectors were convincing. Rotation within stocks didn‘t work yesterday or the day before, and that‘s short-term concerning for the stock market bull health – as in, the path ahead would be truly rockier, and accompanied by brief, sharp selloffs such as the one bringing S&P 500 futures to 3,865 moments ago. The bull market isn‘t though over by a long shot – all we‘re going through is a recalibration of the rising inflation – I still stand by my year end call for $SPX at 4200.It‘s commodities that are under the greatest pressure now, and the copper and oil signals doesn‘t bode well for the immediate future. These are likely starting consolidation of post-Nov 2020 sharp gains – they are no longer frontrunning inflation expectations. This has also consequences for silver, which is more vulnerable here than the yellow metal now.Gold is again a few bucks above its volume profile $1,720 support zone, and miners aren‘t painting a bullish picture. Resilient when faced with the commodities selloff, but weak when it comes to retreating nominal yields. The king of metals looks mixed, but the risks to the downside seem greater than those of catching a solid bid.That doesn‘t mean a steep selloff in a short amount of time just ahead – rather continuation of choppy trading with bursts of selling here and there. What could change my mind? Decoupling from rising TLT yields returning – in the form of gold convincingly rising when yields move down. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWhile yesterday‘s volume isn‘t consistent with a true reversal, it still says we‘re not done with the downside, which however shouldn‘t reach all too far. Force index on the other hand, looks as starting its decline, so the short-term picture is mixed. Whether the 50-day moving average test would lead to a rebound, is an open question – but I think it will.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio gave up all of yesterday‘s gains, but isn‘t leaving stocks as extended here. Much depends upon whether squaring the risk-on bets would continue, or not. Both stocks and the ratio appear consolidating here, and not rolling over to the downside.Technology and FinancialsTechnology (XLK ETF) showing weakness while financials (XLF ETF) aren‘t yet ready to run – that‘s a fair description of the moment. What‘s most concerning, is the tech weakness on still rising long-term Treasuries.Treasuries and Inflation ExpectationsVolume behind the TLT upswing is drying up, and S&P 500 sectors are sensing another turn to the downside. Utilities aren‘t getting anywhere while $NYFANG is as weak as could reasonably be, which doesn‘t bode well for stocks.Commodities showed daily resilience as inflation trades meekly turned around – but make no mistake, inflation expectations runup appear getting questioned on a short-term basis, and the more volatile commodities feel that.Gold and MinersThe precious metals sector remains under pressure, and the renewed and visible miners underperformance highlights that. Yesterday‘s gold upswing happened on lower volume than the preceding downswing, adding to the woes. Silver though remains more vulnerable to the downside than gold, and miners aren‘t painting a bullish picture at all.SummaryWith the tech underperformance returning to the fore, the S&P 500 is short-term exposed, but the momentarily elevated put/call ratio looks as marking not too much downside left as prices approach the 50-day moving average. Once value stocks turn upwards, the stock bull market would be running again.Until gold and silver miners show outperformance again, both metals remain vulnerable to short-term downside – silver more so than gold, which could catch a bid as a safe haven play. But should gold strength return on declining yields, that would be another missing ingredient in the precious metals bull market.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Have Commodities Peaked? We doubt it

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 25.03.2021 19:47
While everyone was paying attention to the FOMC, Gold & Silver, and the Treasury Yields, it appears the recent commodity rally trend took a big hit on Thursday, March 18, 2021.  Our guess is that the FOMC statement did nothing to support the continued commodity price rally as the US Fed continued with near-zero interest rates and economic support through 2023.  The rally in commodities was likely based on expectations of a much stronger economic recovery as the COVID vaccines take the pressure off economic shutdowns and further restrictive economic conditions, but that may not be the case.Commodities Rollover May Be Misleading TradersThe rollover in commodities suggests the markets are reacting to renewed expectations, post-FOMC.  They may continue to consolidate near support (near $16.30) before attempting to move higher as traders digest the Fed comments and fall back into economic recovery expectations.  Any move below $16.00 as seen on the chart below may likely prompt a consolidation phase within historical support channels (see the Weekly DBC chart below).Commodities Attempting to Base Near SupportThe following weekly DBC chart shows how the COVID-19 event collapsed commodity prices and how they've just recently rallied back to levels above the pre-COVID price range – above $15.00. When we start to look at longer-term trends, we start to see a number of key price levels that become important technical factors related to future trends.  The support levels that setup in 2019, pre-COVID, are still very valid current support levels for commodities.  If a continued economic recovery takes place, DBC will likely find support above $15 and then begin another rally phase targeting prices above $19 to $20.  This current rollover in commodity prices may be nothing more than a pause in price before another rally starts.Commodities Break Major Monthly Price ChannelLastly, looking at the Monthly DBC chart, below, highlights the very long-term price trends and what becomes immediately evident is that price has recently broken above the RED downward sloping price channel line. The momentum of the price rally that recently broke this downward price channel was strong enough to pierce this downward sloping channel – and it would not be uncommon for price to pause after this price breach.  The YELLOW support levels, from the weekly DBC chart, continue to confirm the $15 to $16 as active support.  Any price rotation or pause near this level will likely hold within this support range before attempting another move higher.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals nowso you don’t miss our next special report!We targeted price lows from 2012~2014 as a potential upside price target if the rally phase continues.  After breaking the major downward sloping price trend, it is very likely that once DBC prices rally above $18.50, a continued rally phase may target the $25 price level with an extended run over many months.Historically, a rally in commodities does not always prompt a rally in the US major indexes.  In 2007~08, commodities rallied extensively while the US stock market collapsed.  In 2010~11, commodities rallied as the US stock market rallied more than 27%.  In 2016~2018, commodities rallied as the US stock market rallied more than 62%.  The current breakout above the RED longer-term price channel suggests we may see a stock market rally aligned with a commodity price rally based on the recent comments by the US Fed.  Unless a major credit market or other catastrophic event takes place, we believe this upward trend in commodities may prompt an extended recovery rally in both commodities and the US stock market.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and manage positions for maximum profits from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets, and this year we see a change in leading sectors taking place from what they were last year.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with educational daily market video, updates, research, and my trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist, which ranks the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my subscribers.Happy Trading!
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Intraday Market Analysis – Double Top Breakout

John Benjamin John Benjamin 26.03.2021 07:03
USDCHF rallies above double top The US dollar continues its advance against the Swiss franc after solid GDP growth last month. The buck’s previous bounce from the 20-day moving average (0.9220) and then a close above 0.9300 have put the uptrend back on track. The bullish breakout above the double top at 0.9375 would trigger a new round of rally. An overbought RSI may lead to a brief pullback where the pair would be looking to gain momentum. If that happens the former resistance area around 0.9350 would be the support to monitor. USDNOK rises along the trendline Sliding oil prices have forced the crude-dependent Norwegian krone to take a backseat. The dollar has been grinding up along a week-long rising trendline. Lifting offers around the previous top at 8.6700 has confirmed that buyers are still in control. An RSI in the neutrality area suggests there is still room on the upside and a bullish breakout above 8.6800 could lead to a broader rally. In the case of a pullback, the demand zone between 8.5400 and 8.5800 could see strong bids from trend followers. EURJPY bounces off major support Tensions around the EU’s vaccine supply have put a strain on the euro as traders rush into a safer Japanese yen. The pair has broken below the 30-day moving average, a bearish movement that could trigger an extended consolidation if not an outright reversal. On the hourly chart, after being oversold, price action is making an attempt to rebound from 128.20. 129.20 is a key area of congestion as it coincides with the falling trendline. Needless to say, traders would try to sell into strength as the pair recovers.
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Is Silver the New Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.03.2021 14:30
Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold this year. It’s possible, but investors shouldn’t count on improving economic conditions and industrial demand.Silver has recently become a hot investment theme. For months, if not years, some analysts claimed that silver is undervalued relative to gold. Then, at the beginning of 2021, Reddit revolutionaries tried to trigger a short squeeze in silver. Although that attempt failed, silver has, so far, clearly been outperforming gold this year , as the chart below shows. So, is silver now a better investment than gold?Well, why would it be? After all, many investors buy silver for the same reasons that they purchase gold – it’s a rare, monetary metal which may be used as an inflation hedge , a safe-haven asset against tail risks , or a portfolio diversifier . It’s just cheaper than gold – and this is why it’s often called the poor man’s gold.Indeed, silver has a very high positive correlation with gold . Just take a look at the chart below, which illustrates the movement of gold and silver prices since April 1968. The shapes of the lines are very similar and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0.90!On the other hand, silver may indeed outperform gold. After all, silver has a dual nature. It is not only a monetary asset – like gold – but also an industrial commodity. This implies that silver is more business cycle -sensitive than gold. Therefore, given that the global economy is recovering from the deep recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the Great Lockdown , silver may outperform gold. In other words, although both gold and silver could benefit from reflation during the recovery, improving economic conditions could support the latter metal more .Another argument for silver shining brighter than gold in 2021 is the historical pattern according to which silver prices tend to follow gold prices with some lag, just to catch up with them later – often overreacting compared with gold’s behavior.So much for theory. Let’s move on to the data now and analyze the previous economic crisis , i.e., the Great Recession , and the following recovery. As the chart below shows, both metals moved generally in tandem, however, silver was more volatile than gold .For example, from its local bottom in mid-2007 to its local peak in early 2008, silver rose 79 percent, while gold “only” 57 percent. Then, in the first phase of the global financial crisis , silver plunged 58 percent (from $20.92 to $8.88), while gold slid 30 percent (from $1011.25 to $712.5). Subsequently, silver skyrocketed 448 percent, reaching a peak of $48.7 in April 2011. Meanwhile, the price of gold reached its peak of $1875 a little bit later, in September 2011, gaining 166 percent. Finally, silver plunged 46 percent by the end of 2011, while gold dropped only 19 percent. This shows that the economic recovery and industrial revival that followed the Great Recession didn’t help silver to shine. Actually, the bluish metal underperformed gold .Similarly, silver plunged more than gold (25 versus 17 percent) in the run-up to the burst of the dot-com bubble , as one can see in the chart below. It also gained less than gold in the aftermath of the 2001 recession (25.4 versus 27.5 percent), and then it plunged in the third quarter of 2002, significantly underperforming gold.Therefore, the recent history doesn’t confirm the view that silver should be outperforming gold in the early stages of a recovery, because it’s an industrial commodity that benefits from improving economic conditions. Silver was never in a bullish mode when gold was in a bear market, and it rather tends to rally rapidly in the late stage of the commodity cycle, like in the 2000s.Actually, one can argue that silver has the best period behind itself. After all, it soared 141 percent from late March to September 2020, while gold rallied “only” 40 percent. So, it might be the case that the catch-up period, in which silver outperforms gold, is already behind us. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the gold-to-silver ratio has recently declined to a more traditional range of 60-70.This, of course, doesn’t mean that silver cannot rise further. However, it seems that the metal has already caught up somewhat with its more precious cousin . So, it’s possible that silver can outperform gold in 2021, as Biden’s focus on renewable energy may help silver – as a major part of the metal used in industry is now linked to solar panels and electronics, but history teaches us that investors shouldn’t count on industrial demand . Silver didn’t outperform gold during recoveries from the previous recessions. Although silver has a dual nature, its price is highly correlated with gold prices. Therefore, macroeconomic factors, such as the U.S. dollar , real interest rates , risk appetite, inflation , public debt , monetary policy , fiscal policy , etc., should have a stronger impact on silver than industrial demand . As always, those entering the silver market should remember that silver price movements are more violent than in the gold market.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

The REIT Special - An Inflation Hedge

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.03.2021 15:01
In the premium editions of my newsletters, you know that I have been consistently touting the iShares Cohen & Steers REIT ETF (ICF) as a potential hedge against inflation.In this REIT Special Edition, I will break down the WHY. But not, we aren’t going to just talk about the ICF ETF. We will dig into what specific real estate sectors you might want to consider when looking at REITs to invest in.But first and foremost, what is a REIT, and why are they such strong bets right now?Let’s just say, if you want to invest in real estate but do not necessarily have the capital, you will want to read on. If you don’t have the patience for illiquid assets like buildings, you will want to read on. And suppose you want the easiest, most convenient way to diversify your portfolio and add real estate exposure. You will want to read on.A REIT, or real estate investment trust, is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-producing real estate assets. Think of REITs as mutual funds for real estate. REITs pool the capital of numerous investors.For the most part, REITs trade on public exchanges like stocks, which makes them highly liquid, unlike physical real estate assets. But the thing I love most about REITs? They also almost mirror the consistent income streams you can get from real estate assets. REITs pay some of the best and most consistent dividends on the market. All while you as an investor don’t have to get your hands dirty and buy, manage, or finance the property.REITs invest in almost every real estate sector. However, in this edition, we will focus specifically on multifamily, hospitality, industrial, and healthcare. Why? Multifamily and hospitality could see substantial recoveries after 2020. Industrial and healthcare had strong 2020s and could continue to succeed in 2021 and long after.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. MultifamilyFigure 1- iShares Residential Real Estate ETF (REZ)Multifamily or residential REITs own and operate apartment buildings and/or manufactured housing.The most important factors to focus on when researching multifamily REITs are affordability, population growth, and job growth. For example, large cities such as New York and LA have higher living costs and more renters. But their job growth and population growth are severely lagging right now. You want large urban centers that show strong in-migration trends and job growth.Figure 2: Marcus & Millichap Forecast Consider the multifamily market in the Sunbelt and Mountain region. Even before COVID, there was a migration boom and significant employment growth, especially in the Sunbelt region. Plus, this region didn’t lock down as strictly as big cities like New York and LA and saw fewer job losses during the pandemic.The Mountain region is also seeing a rapidly growing population, a strong quality-of-life, and affordable living costs. Do you know the ONLY state that saw year-over-year job growth for total nonfarm payrolls in January 2021 while also leading in year-to-date growth? Idaho .While multifamily growth will be likely be fragmented based on region, there are two ways you can play this:Research individual REITs with the most exposure to growing regions.Add broad-based exposure to multifamily assets through ETFs like the iShares Residential Real Estate ETF (REZ) . While this ETF does not focus EXCLUSIVELY on residential REITs, as it has exposure to healthcare and self-storage, too, this is an easy and convenient way to give yourself multifamily exposure.For more of my thoughts on REITs focusing on hospitality, office, industrial, and healthcare, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold

Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.03.2021 15:02
Another day, another reversal – and a positive one for stocks. Universal sectoral weakness gave way to a unison rebound amid constructive outside markets. After weeks of on and off fits over rising Treasury yields, S&P 500 ran into headwinds on their retreat, and recaptured its luster yesterday as long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF) rolled over to the downside. I guess nothing boosts confidence as much a troubled 7-year Treasury auction.While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.Now, look for the fresh money avalanche, activist fiscal and moterary policy to hit the markets as a tidal wave. Modern monetary theorists‘ dream come true. Unlike during the Great Recession, the newly minted money isn‘t going to go towards repairing banks‘ balance sheets – it‘s going into the financial markets, lifting up asset prices, and over to the real economy. So far, it‘s only PPI that‘s showing signs of inflation in the pipeline – soon to be manifest according to the CPI methodology as well.Any deflation scare in such an environment stands low prospects of success. That concerns precious metals – neither rising, nor falling, regardless of the miners‘ message. After the upswing off the Mar 08 lows faltered, the bears had quite a few chances to ambush this week, yet made no progress. And the longer such inaction draws on, the more it is indicative of the opposite outcome.Yes, that‘s true regardless of the dollar continuing down for almost a month since my early Feb call before turning higher. When I was asked recently over Twitter my opionion on the greenback, I replied that its short-term outlook is bullish now – while I think the world reserve currency would get on the defensive and reach new lows this year still, it could take more than a few weeks for it to form a local top. Once AUD/USD turns higher, that could be among its first signs.Regarding gold, yesterday‘s words are true also today:(…) Gold is again a few bucks above its volume profile $1,720 support zone, and miners aren‘t painting a bullish picture. Resilient when faced with the commodities selloff, but weak when it comes to retreating nominal yields. The king of metals looks mixed, but the risks to the downside seem greater than those of catching a solid bid.That doesn‘t mean a steep selloff in a short amount of time just ahead – rather continuation of choppy trading with bursts of selling here and there. What could change my mind? Decoupling from rising TLT yields returning – in the form of gold convincingly rising when yields move down. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookYesterday‘s reversal was overall credible – more so in its internals than as regards the daily volume. On a positive and contrarian note, the put to call ratio reached higher highs yesterday, leaving ample room to power a swift upswing should it come to that. And it could as quite many investors are positioned for a downswing in stocks.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio gave up all of yesterday‘s gains, but isn‘t leaving stocks as extended here. Much depends upon whether squaring the risk-on bets would continue, or not. Both stocks and the ratio appear consolidating here, and not rolling over to the downside.Value and TechnologyValue stocks (VTV ETF) finally showed clear leadership yesterday, the volume didn‘t disappoint, and technology (XLK ETF) recovered from prior downside on top. Closing about unchanged, it‘s key to the S&P 500 upswing continuation with force as opposed to muddling through.Gold in the SpotlightThe troubled miners got a little less problematic yesterday. The GDX ETF recovered from intraday losses while gold didn‘t exactly plunge. Its opening strength was a pleasant sight as more often than not, miners‘ weakness while gold goes nowhere, is a signal for going short the metal. But as this sign didn‘t result in a gold slide, my viewpoint is turning bullish again because we might be seeing fake miners weakness that would be resolved over the coming week with an upswing. Now that the Wall and Main Street expectation for the coming week aren‘t probably as bullish as for the week almost over, an upswing would be easier to pull off (should it come to that).Big picture view remains (positively) mixed – the selling pressure is retreating but gold isn‘t yet reacting to declining yields. Once it clearly does, the waiting for a precious metals upswing would be over.Silver and MinersSilver staged an intraday reversal, which copper couldn‘t pull off. Not that it attempted to, but still the commodities selloff appears a bit overdone, given that nothing has fundamentally changed. Both gold and silver miners stabilized on the day, meaning that the sector is in a wait and see mode, unwilling to turn bearish just yet.SummaryThe odds of an S&P 500 upswing have gone up, and volatility made a powerful retreat below 20 once again. Value stocks have turned upwards, and the stock bulls appear readying another run.Miners closed at least undecided yesterday, but gold and silver miners showing outperformance again is missing. Both metals still remain vulnerable to short-term downside. Once gold strengthens on declining yields, that would be another missing ingredient in the precious metals bull market.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Bullish Case

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.03.2021 08:00
USDJPY accelerates rallyThe US dollar climbs as the US economy is gaining steam while other parts of the world face new Covid restrictions.The pair has shot up to last June’s high at 109.85 after it broke out of the consolidation range under 109. The bias remains strongly bullish, though an overbought RSI would suggest a temporary pullback as traders take profit.In that case, the rising trendline and 20 and 30-hour moving averages would become the demand zone. A deeper retracement may find support from the former resistance at 109.20.XAUUSD awaits breakout catalystA firm US dollar is weighing on gold as Treasury yields hold ground. The recovery stalled after the price broke below the rising trendline, denting the optimism for a swift rebound.The precious metal is likely to stay range-bound until a catalyst, be it fundamental or technical, triggers a breakout.1718 is a key support and a bearish breakout could deepen the correction towards 1700.To the upside, bulls will need to remove 1745 to bring back confidence. After that, an extended rally may carry the price to 1780.GER 30 surges to new highEquity markets recovered swiftly after lower-than-expected US personal consumption expenditure quelled the fear of reflation.The DAX has bounced off the key short-term support at 14430 to challenge the all-time high at 14800.Solid momentum above a bullish MA cross confirms that buyers are still in control of the price action. A close above 14800 may convince more trend followers to join in and push the index higher.To the downside, 14590 would be the immediate support for the RSI to cool off.
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What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.03.2021 15:31
Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the rising yields dynamic sending value stocks higher – and this time technology didn‘t stand in the way. What an understatement given the strong Friday sectoral showing, acocmpanied by the defensives swinging higher as well. And that‘s the characterization of the stock market rise – it‘s led by the defensive sectors with value stocks coming in close second now.Still last week, the market confirmed my early Friday‘s take:(…) While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.Commodities have indeed turned again higher on Friday, as seen in both copper and oil – and so did inflation expectations. While some central banks (hello, Canada) might be ahead in attempting to roll back the emergency support, the Fed isn‘t yet forced by the bond market to act – which I however view as likely to change over the coming months.With 10-year Treasury yields at 1.67%, last week‘s decline didn‘t reach far before turning higher. Remembering stock market woes the first breach of 1.50% caused, stocks have coped well with the subsequent run up – while in the old days of retirees actually being able to live off interest rate income, a level of 4% would bring about trouble for S&P 500, now the level is probably just above 2%. Yes, that‘s how far our financialized economy has progressed – and I look for volatility to rise, and stocks to waver and likely enter a correction at such a bond market juncture. As always, I‘ll be keeping a close eye on the signs, emerging or not, as we approach that yield level.Again quoting my Friday‘s words, what else to expect as the bond markets takes notice:(…) Now, look for the fresh money avalanche, activist fiscal and moterary policy to hit the markets as a tidal wave. Modern monetary theorists‘ dream come true. Unlike during the Great Recession, the newly minted money isn‘t going to go towards repairing banks‘ balance sheets – it‘s going into the financial markets, lifting up asset prices, and over to the real economy. So far, it‘s only PPI that‘s showing signs of inflation in the pipeline – soon to be manifest according to the CPI methodology as well.Any deflation scare in such an environment stands low prospects of success. For deflation to succeed, a stock market crash followed by a depression has to come first. And as inflation is firing on just one cylinder now (asset price inflation not accompanied by labor market pressures), it isn‘t yet strong enough to derail the stock bull run. The true inflation is a 2022-3 story, which is when we would be likely in a full blown financial repression and bond yields capped well above 2% while inflation rate could run at double that figure. Then, the Fed wouldn‘t be engaged in a twist operation, but in yield curve control, which the precious metals would love, for they love low nominal and negative real rates.Gold might be already sensing that upcoming pressure on the Fed to act – remember their run for so many months before the repo crisis of autumn 2019 broke out:(…) After the upswing off the Mar 08 lows faltered, the bears had quite a few chances to ambush this week, yet made no progress. And the longer such inaction draws on, the more it is indicative of the opposite outcome.Not only that gold miners outperformed the yellow metal on Friday, with their position relative to silver, the king of metals is sending a signal that it would be the one to take leadership in the approaching precious metals upswing. And the dollar wouldn‘t be standing in the way – let‘s continue with my Friday‘s thoughts:(…) When I was asked recently over Twitter my opionion on the greenback, I replied that its short-term outlook is bullish now – while I think the world reserve currency would get on the defensive and reach new lows this year still, it could take more than a few weeks for it to form a local top. Once AUD/USD turns higher, that could be among its first signs.Once higher rates challenge the stock market bull, the dollar would do well in whiff of deflationary environment (remember the corona runup of spring 2020), but it would be the devaluation that would break it – and it‘s my view that devaluation would not happen against other fiat currencies, but against gold (and by extension silver). With devaluation (it‘s still far away in the future), a true inflation would arrive and stay, which forms a more drastic scenario to the more orderly one I discussed earlier in today‘s article.Another challenge for the stock market bull comes from taxes, as the current and upcoming infrastructure stimuli (wait, there is the $2T one to move the U.S. to a carbon-neutral future on top) would result in higher tax rates next year, which would further hamper productive capital allocation as people and institutions would seek to negate their effect. Needless to say, gold, miners and real assets would do very well in such an environment.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookStrong S&P 500 upswing on Friday, on a not too shabby volume. The key question is whether the bulls can keep the momentum on Monday, and ideally extend the gains at least a little. Signs are they would be able to achieve that.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) reached the mid-Mar highs, and need to confirm Friday‘s upswing – odds are they would continue higher on Monday as well, because the volume comparison is positive and daily indicators don‘t appear yet ready to turn down.Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectation as measured by Treasury inflation protected securities to long-dated Treasuries (TIP:TLT) ratio, keep making higher highs and higher lows – the market is recalibrating towards a higher inflation environment, but not yet running ahead of the Fed as the 10-year Treasury yield (black line) shows. It‘s so far still orderly.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsThe Russell 2000 (IWM ETF, upper black line) is underperforming the S&P 500, and so are the emerging markets (EEM ETF) – both signals of the defensive nature of the stock market upswing. The animal spirits aren‘t there to the full extent (don‘t be fooled by the strong VTV showing), but have been making a return since Thursday.Gold, Silver and MinersA new turn is taking shape within the Tuesday-challenged precious metals upswing – the miners appear yet again assuming leadership. The call I made on Thursday, hinting at a change, appears materializing to the bulls‘ benefit.Comparing gold and silver at the moment, results in the conclusion of the yellow metal leading higher after all – and the positive turn in copper (which is also reflected in the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio) confirms that.Crude OilBlack gold keeps defending the 50-day moving average, showing the reflation trade in both commodities and stocks isn‘t over yet. The oil index ($XOI) is once again pointing higher, and so is the energy ETF (XLE). While Friday‘s volume was relatively modest, oil has good prospects to keep recovering this week.SummaryThe odds of an S&P 500 upswing were confirmed by the Friday‘s upswing, in line with the put/call ratio indications. Credit markets concur, and while the sectoral constellation isn‘t totally bullish, it can still carry the index to new highs.Miners made an important turn higher relative to gold, and the sector can enter today‘s trading on a stronger footing than was the case on Friday. The green shoots in the precious metals sector appear likely to take a turn for the better this week and next. As always, keeping a close eye on the gold‘s relationship to nominal yields, is essential – be it decoupling from rising ones, or a strong upswing on retreating ones.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

How To Spot Boom and Bust Cycles

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 29.03.2021 16:04
One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending.  Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well.  For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated.  Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock MarketWhen an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50.  Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big-ticket consumer spending. Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak.  Let's take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer-term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart below.First, the 1992 to 2005 ratio levels represent a moderately low Gold price level compared to a somewhat inflated Lumber price level.  You can see how that dramatically changed between 2005 and 2012 – this was a time when Gold started a historic rally phase just before the Housing/Credit crisis of 2008-09.Since that time, the Lumber to Gold ratio has stayed below historical low reference points (near 0.6).  This shift in the Lumber to Gold ratio suggests that demand for Gold outpaced demand for Lumber over the past 10+ years.  Now, the Lumber to Gold ratio is climbing back to levels near or above that 0.6 level and may soon move higher if the post-COVID economic recovery continues while demand for Gold stays somewhat muted.Traders need to pay attention to this current rally in the Lumber vs. Gold ratio because a breakout rally above the 0.60 level would likely mean a continued rally phase for the US stock market and strong sector trending related to consumer spending, housing, and speculative sectors.  Whereas, a failure to rally above the 0.60 level at this stage may indicate that the US stock market will begin to stall and potentially move into a sideways correction before starting a new trend.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals nowso you don’t miss our next special report!Lastly, we have drawn some Std Deviation channels on this longer-term Lumber to Gold Weekly chart above.  It is very important to understand that a continued rally in the Lumber to Gold ratio will break above the upper downward sloping channel from the 1999 peak and potentially prompt a big upside price rally – likely pushing the US stock market to extended new highs.A Closer Look At The Current SetupWhen we zoom into the current price trends on the following Lumber to Gold ratio chart below, we can clearly see the two recent rally trends; the first after the 2016 US elections and the second after the COVID-19 bottom.  The most important aspect of this chart right now is that any continued rally in the Lumber to Gold ratio may quickly breach the 0.60 historical range and potentially prompt a very big rally in the US stock market over the next few months.The new COVID stimulus and the continued efforts to pass an Infrastructure Bill in the US Congress may prompt enough of a capital injection into the US economy to set off a “booster phase” rally at this stage in the economic recovery.  One simply can't rely on the fact that the Lumber to Gold ratio is near a historically critical level, we need to actually wait to see confirmation of a breakdown in this trend before we can say what is likely to happen in the near future.  If the ratio climbs above 0.60 and continues to rally higher, then it is very likely that the US and Global stock market trends will also continue much higher.Historical Peaks & Rallies – When To Be ConcernedThis longer-term Lumber to Gold ratio chart shows how the SPY continued to rally through various stages of the rally in the ratio level. We also have to remember the peak in 2000 was related to two important economic events; the DOT COM bubble burst and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  Subsequently, the breakdown in the Lumber to Gold ratio that started in 2004 was related to a broadly weakening housing market trend – prompted by an ever-increasing Fed Funds Rate which began in 2004-05.  Currently, we have the US Fed promising “near-zero” rates through 2022 and an easy money policy throughout that time to support stronger global market recovery.  Barring any unforeseen credit, economic, or global market event, we believe a breakout rally in the Lumber to Gold ratio, assuming Gold stays below $2250 and does not enter a breakout rally phase, will coincide with a moderately strong US stock market rally.When should you start to be concerned that a top is setting up based on this ratio?Very simply put, when you see Gold start to rally above $2150~$2250 and breakout into a true rally while the price of Lumber begins to fall somewhat sharply, then we believe traders should start to actively protect positions and prepare for a bigger breakdown in the stock market trend.  Until Gold starts to react as a proper hedge, this speculative “excess phase” rally will likely continue higher.As a warning for all our friends and followers, a breakdown of this upside rally trend could be sudden if a major market event takes place.  For example, if a sudden collapse in the credit/debt markets were to happen (related to risk exposure or bank/financial firm failures), then we may see a very sudden breakdown in this ratio.  Additionally, if war or geopolitical economic tensions break out where excessive global risks become a factor, then we may also see this ratio turn negative quickly.Traders need to understand the potential for a continued stock market rally near these current levels is quite strong, but there are still risks of a sudden breakdown in trending.  The question that nobody can answer is “what will the catalyst event be and when could it happen?”. Until then, trade the hottest sectors using my Best Asset Now strategy, which you can learn NOW by signing up for my FREE webinar that will teach you how to find the best sectors to trade.Until the end of the trend is upon us, get ready for some really interesting global market trends and sector opportunities.  It is very likely that volatility will stay higher than normal prompting 2% to 4%+ rotations in market trends.  These next few years are going to be a trader's dream market in terms of trending and price rotation. For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.Enjoy your Sunday!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

The Three Pillars for Stocks

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.03.2021 16:42
We’re officially almost through with the first quarter of 2021. While a broad correction did not happen by now, as I thought, the Nasdaq dipped into correction territory twice.There might also be as much uncertainty for tech stocks today as there was at March’s start.However, let’s look at the big picture almost a week after we hit the 1-year anniversary of the market’s bottom. Three pillars remain in motion as a strong backdrop for stocks:VaccinesDovish monetary policy full of stimulusFinancial aidWhile the major indices are still positive for 2021, every month this year has been marked by hot starts, marred by mid-month uncertainty and downturns. We’re dealing with rising bond yields, inflation scares, volatile Reddit trades, and an improving yet slowing labor market recovery.Plus, although earnings came in strong this past quarter, stock valuations are still at an overly inflated point not seen in years. In fact, Ray Dalio , founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, says there’s a bubble that’s ‘halfway’ to the magnitude of 1929 or 2000.We could see some more volatility on tap this week as the market continues to figure itself out.Suez Canal- There’s been a gigantic tanker blocking arguably one of the most crucial waterways for global trade for the last 6 days. There are indications that the tanker may be on the way to being freed. But the sooner this happens, the better. The Suez Cana controls about 10% of global trade, so you can only imagine the hundreds of billions of dollars bleeding per day the more this drags on.Economic Data- Consumer Confidence, the March job’s report, the unemployment rate, and the PMI Manufacturing index will be released this week.Earnings- Chewy (CHWY) will report Tuesday (Mar. 30) after market close, and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Dave & Busters (PLAY), Micron (MU) will all report after market close Wednesday (Mar. 31).My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:Over a year after we bottomed, there is optimism but signs of concern.The market has to figure itself out. More volatility is likely, and we could experience more muted gains than what we’ve known over the last year. Inflation and interest-rate worries should be the primary tailwind. However, a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely to happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Russell 2000- Time to Pounce?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn during the second half of February. I wasn’t going to make that mistake again.After the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) went on its latest rally to start March, I checked out the chart. I noticed that almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.Fast forward to Tuesday (Mar. 23). The Russell 2000 saw its worst day since February 25, dropped below its 50-day, and I switched the call to a BUY.Now, as we start the final week in March, we may be looking at the 6th reversal after dipping below its 50-day. The IWM has been up about 4.25% since March 24.Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.Based on the RSI and where we are in relation to the 50-day moving average, I still feel that this is a BUY.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.03.2021 17:17
Positions in the USDX are shifting from shorts to longs, so gold investors should look closely. Why? Because it’s an inverse relationship.We’ve discussed the negative correlation between the dollar and the precious metals many times before, but it can never be discussed enough, particularly as the situation develops and the outlook for the USD Index becomes more positive.Once the USD Index lands some knockout punches, the precious metals will be hurting, as they tend to do when the dollar rises. Gold, silver and the miners will eventually rise, but for the medium-term, they are still in bearish territory.Counted out, counted down and rarely counted on, investors threw in the USD Index’s towel long before the fight even began. However, after shaking the cobwebs and landing a few haymakers, the greenback’s Rocky-like comeback is proof that ‘it ain’t over till it’s over.’Let’s look at the factors influencing rise of the USD Index as well as some of the historical patterns:1. Repositioning from Short to LongNow, with thousands of screaming fans chanting “USD, USD,” the eye of the tiger could be eying another move higher. As evidence, if you analyze the chart below, you can see that non-commercial (speculative) traders have quietly repositioned from net-short to net-long.To explain, notice how oversold periods in 2014 and 2018 – where net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest was extremely high – preceded sharp rallies in the USD Index? Thus, with 2021 the most extreme on record, the forthcoming rally should be significant.How significant? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Let’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, so without paying attention to tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer), let’s focus on the more meaningful ones (like the one that we see right now – the net positions just became visibly positive – over 16%, after being very negative for quite some time.In short, that’s how the following profound rallies started:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114.Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.2. The 10-Year Treasury YieldAdding to the momentum, in 2020, the USD Index sat out the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield’s ferocious upswing. Defying historical precedent, a bottom and subsequent move higher in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has coincided with a rise in the USD Index 80% of the time since 2003 . But now in sync, 2021 has been a much different story. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the USD Index has been moving in lockstep with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield since the New Year.3. Reclaiming 200-Day Moving AverageIn addition, not only has the USD Index broke above its previous highs, but the basket just reclaimed its 200-day moving average (which is often indicative of a long-term uptrend). As a result, the greenback continues to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee .For historical context, after recapturing its 200-day MA in 2018, the USD Index only suffered mild pullbacks before surging above 95. As such, with the mid-2020 highs the USD Index’s next opponent, 94.5 is unlikely to put up much of a fight.Keep in mind though: in the very-short term, the USD Index could move lower and retest its prior 2021 highs. However, the damage should be minimal, and it wouldn’t invalidate the USD Index’s medium-term breakout. Because of this, the outlook remains profoundly bearish for the gold, silver , and mining stocks over the medium term. If you analyze the table below, you can see that the precious metals tend to move inversely to the U.S. dollar.4. The History Really Rhymes: The 2017-2018 UpswingBut saving the best for last, the 2017-2018 analogue could be the USD Index’s knockout punch. With this version likely to be titled “The Resurgence: Part 2,” while history often rhymes, it’s rare for it to rhyme with this level of specificity .Please see below:Even more revealing, while it took less than 118 days for the USD Index to move from peak to trough in 2020-2021, the uprising could occur at a much faster pace. In 2018, the USD Index’s breakout above its 50-day moving average is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. And after the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is 94.5 .Furthermore, in 2017-2018, it also took 82 days for the USDX to form a final bottom (the number of days between the initial bottom and the final bottom) and the duration amounts to 21.19% of the overall timeframe. If we applied a similar timeframe to today’s move, then the USD Index should have bottomed on Feb. 12. It actually bottomed (finally) on Feb. 25, which was just 8 trading days away from the former date. Taking into account the sizes of the moves that preceded the previous declines (they took approximately one year to complete), this is extremely close and an excellent confirmation that the self-similar pattern remains intact.Also noteworthy, as the USDX approached its final bottom in 2017-2018, gold traded sideways. Today, however, gold has been in a downward spiral and it doesn’t seem that the decline is over. From a medium-term perspective, the yellow metal’s behavior is actually more bearish than it was in 2017-2018.And while the self-similar pattern is already playing out as predicted, please read below for further explanation as to why the USD Index’s current and historical price action remains a spitting image:It’s not true that there were no pullbacks during the 2018 rally. There were, but they were simply too small to be visible from the long-term point of view.The first notable pullback took place in early May 2018, and it contributed to a corrective upswing in the precious metals market. To be precise, the USD Index declined after rallying for 56 trading days, but gold rallied earlier – 51 trading days after the USD Index’s final bottom. The USDX’s immediate-top formed 16 trading days after its final bottom, and gold’s bottom formed 10 trading days after the USD’s final bottom.Comparing this to the size of the previous decline in terms of the trading days, it was:51 – 56 trading days / 283 trading days = 18.02% - 19.79%10 – 16 trading days / 283 trading days = 3.53% - 5.65%Also indicating a messy divorce, when the USD Index turned a short-term decline into consolidation in mid-2018, can you guess what happened next? Well, the USD Index moved significantly higher, while gold moved significantly lower.Please see below:Moreover, when comparing the pairs’ behavior in mid-2018 to today, it’s ominously similar.Please see below:For additional context, I also wrote on Mar. 10:Let’s examine the current situation: the preceding decline lasted for 200 trading days and there were 41 – 42 trading days between the final USDX bottom and the short-term reversals in gold and USDX. Comparing this to the final USDX bottom, we get 7 – 8 trading days.Applying the previous percentages to the length of the most recent medium-term decline in the USD Index provides us with the following:18.02% - 19.79% x 200 trading days = ~36 - ~40 trading days3.53% - 5.65% x 200 trading days = ~7 - ~11 trading daysThe above estimation of about 36 – 40 trading days almost perfectly fits the current 41 – 42-day delay, and the estimation of about 7 – 11 trading days almost perfectly fits the current delay of 7 – 8 trading days.In other words, the analogy to the 2018 performance does not only remain intact – it actually perfectly confirms the validity of the current corrective upswing. Once again, it’s very likely just a pullback, not a big trend reversal.Likewise, a potentially bearish pattern that I have been monitoring – where the USD Index’s price action from July to October 2020 mirrored the price action from December 2020 to February/March 2021– has officially been broken . With the USD Index’s medium-term breakout trumping the former, the potentially bearish pattern has been invalidated and the USD Index is likely to continue its ascension.But to what end?Well, if we look back at 2020, the USD Index attempted to recapture its previous highs. But lacking the upward momentum, the failure was followed by a sharp move lower. Today, however, the USD Index has broken above its previous highs and the greenback verified the breakout by consolidating, moving back toward the previous lows and rising once again. Now, the USD Index is visibly above its previous highs .Taken together, and given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. And in the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.In conclusion, the USD Index went from being on the ropes to winning the crowd. And with the momentum building and the adrenaline rising, it’s only a matter of time before the USD Index lands another haymaker. Moreover, given the precious metals’ negative correlation with the U.S. dollar – combined with the fact that technicals, fundamentals and sentiment are now riding with the greenback – an uprising could leave the gold, silver, and mining stocks battered and bruised. However, after a tough period of soul searching, the precious metals will regain the heavyweight championship once again. Or, if one wants to put it in more technical terms, gold, silver, and miners are likely to start a massive rally, but only after declining visibly first.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Bitcoin is invaluable

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.03.2021 08:27
In fact, Bitcoin is a decentralized global digital network which in essence is transforming analog assets into digital assets. It has been growing at 200% a year. Now after 12 years in existence Bitcoin is a digital trillion-dollar network.What supports its long-term stability is that its decentralization and transparency are immune against policy. While we typically at the mercy of policymakers and as such a middleman that can manipulate the use of a payment method, with Bitcoin, the individual is genuinely safe. Looking at the world around us where it is hard to find any field not infiltrated by groups who seek to take advantage, manipulate, and flat out lie, it is a true need one can trust a store of value to benchmark against.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Our chart from last week’s chartbook:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.We posted the above short to midterm chart prediction in our last week’s chartbook publication.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, As anticipated-another leg up:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 29th, 2021.The market unfolded quite as planned. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Health and sustainability:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.If we analyze Bitcoin prices advancing from last August’s lows, we can find an intact Elliot impulse wave pattern. The Health and sustainability of this trend are derived from the three propulsion proportions. While advancing strongly in the first wave with a 323 % advancement, the pace cooled down to a 99% second leg upward. These stunning advancements followed yet again by a more moderate increase of 44% to its recent all-time highs. This abstinence of a blow-off top or run-away train allows us to believe that prices could march higher.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is invaluable, Projections:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.When examining projections, we like to stack odds by looking at both a time and a price component. The above chart shows this blend using a time cycle approach (vertical lines) and a Fibonacci extension probability measurement. Stacking these projection tools would lead us to a price target near ninety-seven thousand for the mid-next year. Our “conservative” projection is marked with the yellow circle on the top right of the chart.Bitcoin is invaluable:Looking around, and you will find that the Dollar is what around the world most value storage is bench-marked against. It seems frightening to us since the Dollar has no gold standard or otherwise intrinsic value that we still give it this much power only based on a belief. With economic powers shifting towards the east and a lack of political and economic leadership, beliefs can change, and as such, currency stability is endangered. Hedging your store of value through an instrument that holds intrinsic value based on principles over beliefs seems more than logical.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 30th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – Fading Sell-Off

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.03.2021 08:31
USOIL sees bearish momentum stallingWTI climbed back in anticipation of extended production cuts by OPEC+ in their upcoming meeting in April. The pullback would be temporary as an RSI divergence showed a loss in the sell-off.Following a rebound from the support at 57.20, an RSI double top in the overbought area suggests that the US crude has been consolidating in search of momentum.The latest breakout above the psychological level at 62.00 is a confirmation that buyers have regained control and the price could be on its way to 65.USDCAD recovers towards supply areaThe recent retreat in oil prices has weighed on the loonie while the US dollar kept the high ground across the board. The pair is grinding higher towards the supply zone near 1.27.However, selling pressure is likely to intensify as the US dollar tests the 20 and 30-day moving averages on the daily chart, within a year-long downtrend.1.2540 is the immediate support and a bearish breakout could further depress the price action.To the upside, 1.2680 is the hurdle to lift before the bulls could press for a reversal.US 30 tests a record highStock markets recouped losses from previous choppy sessions as investors saw the dip as an opportunity.After rallying above the former resistance at 32500, the Dow Jones is making an attempt at the previous high at 33250. A bullish breakout could extend the rally to new record highs.While market sentiment remains positive, an overbought RSI could prompt a pullback driven by profit takings.The demand area between 32500 and 32700 could see strong buying interest if the index cools off.
Liquidity Boost for Stocks and Gold?

Liquidity Boost for Stocks and Gold?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.03.2021 15:53
Friday‘s great run gave way to yesterday‘s consolidation, and stock bulls appear in need of more before taking out the psychological 4,000 mark. The Archegos crash isn‘t causing contagion fears the way GameStop in late Jan did. The current volatility and put/call ratio simply doesn‘t reflect that.The theme is still one of reflation – while inflation expectations are rising, and so are the inflation data for those who care to examine them closely enough, true inflation isn‘t yet here with us. Markets are merely transitioning to a higher inflation environment already, not buying the Fed‘s transitory explanation. Commodities are basing at the conquered levels before another run higher.Make no mistake though, the current S&P 500 upswing is heavily reliant on the defensive sectors – technology isn‘t standing in the way, utilities and consumer staples are doing great, and so are several areas within the real estate sector such the residential one, or REIT ETFs that can be expected to keep doing well. Couple that with value stocks not really retreating, and you get the current view of S&P 500 advance structurally.Credit markets though are a little lagging behind – thanks to the return of rising yields, working its predictable magic on investment grade corporate bonds as well. Such were my points from yesterday‘s extensive analysis, diving into the big picture across the markets and the economy:(…) With 10-year Treasury yields at 1.67%, last week‘s decline didn‘t reach far before turning higher. Remembering stock market woes the first breach of 1.50% caused, stocks have coped well with the subsequent run up – while in the old days of retirees actually being able to live off interest rate income, a level of 4% would bring about trouble for S&P 500, now the level is probably just above 2%. Yes, that‘s how far our financialized economy has progressed – and I look for volatility to rise, and stocks to waver and likely enter a correction at such a bond market juncture. As always, I‘ll be keeping a close eye on the signs, emerging or not, as we approach that yield level.The bond market isn‘t merely anticipating an economic recovery that has good chances of overheating still this year, it‘s also reacting to:(…) the fresh money avalanche, activist fiscal and moterary policy to hit the markets as a tidal wave. Modern monetary theorists‘ dream come true. Unlike during the Great Recession, the newly minted money isn‘t going to go towards repairing banks‘ balance sheets – it‘s going into the financial markets, lifting up asset prices, and over to the real economy. So far, it‘s only PPI that‘s showing signs of inflation in the pipeline – soon to be manifest according to the CPI methodology as well.Any deflation scare in such an environment stands low prospects of success. Continuing:(…) For deflation to succeed, a stock market crash followed by a depression has to come first. And as inflation is firing on just one cylinder now (asset price inflation not accompanied by labor market pressures), it isn‘t yet strong enough to derail the stock bull run. The true inflation is a 2022-3 story, which is when we would be likely in a full blown financial repression and bond yields capped well above 2% while inflation rate could run at double that figure. Then, the Fed wouldn‘t be engaged in a twist operation, but in yield curve control, which the precious metals would love, for they love low nominal and negative real rates.As I wrote on Twitter, it‘s a question of time when gold starts anticipating the policy turn, snifffing it out just like the Fed having to abandon hawkish positions of late 2018, or the runup to the repo crisis of autumn 2019. We got quite a few decoupling signs, some on prolonged basis, but gold isn‘t yet leading commodities the way it did both before and after the corona deflationary shock. Let‘s not forget about the currencies and arbitrage opportunities there – the yen carry trade is still very much alive, making it a no brainer to borrow in declining currency while parking the proceeds elsewhere – and the one-way trading in $USDJPY in 2021 is a fitting testament thereof. A powerful argument against deflation on our doorstep, by the way.Quite to the (deflationary shock) contrary at the moment – both commodities and precious metals are under pressure in today‘s premarket session. Another undoing of the miners‘ outperformance?Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookDaily consolidation on average volume – no hinting at serious troubles down the road. Buy the dip mentality still rules the day.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) chart looks a bit tired to the upside – the bulls had to defend against a serious downswing yesterday first. Contracting volume precedes rising volume, and the best the bulls can hope for, is sideways trading coupled with downswing rejection followed by another move higher.Technology and ValueTechnology (XLK ETF) repelled an intraday downswing while value stocks (VTV ETF) merely couldn‘t keep up all the gained ground during the day. So far so good in the run up or base building on the path to new all time highs.Gold in the SpotlightThe daily resilience in the miners would come under heavy pressure today, and GDX can be expected to close lower. Would they still show outperformance vs. the yellow metal? I wouldn‘t bet the farm on it – it appears the Mar 04 game plan will be tested soon instead.Miners to gold (black line) still keeps painting a bullish picture on the weekly chart, as it refuses to follow the yellow metal to the downside. Where would it be should the $1,670 support zone get tested again – would that level be sufficient enough to power a rebound?Silver, Miners and CopperSilver clearly illustrates the sectoral weakness – the selling waves get harder to repel, and upswing attempts are happening on lower volume. While copper goes sideways, the white metal is breaking lower, and its miners aren‘t showing any strength at all.SummaryS&P 500 keeps consolidating Friday‘s gains without signs of upcoming, groundbreaking weakness. With volatility at around 20, the path of least resistance remains overall higher – until tech says no more. Again, no hint at that today still.Gold is again approaching the $1,670 support, and miners‘ performance will send as valuable clues just as before the Mar 08 bottom. Given today‘s downswing, that will be an even more important indication, bearing medium-term consequences as well.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Has Gold “Ever Given” to You?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.03.2021 17:01
Neither the Suez Canal blockade nor the SLR exemption’s expiration should significantly affect gold, whose price is likely to be soon shaped by other factors.Do you think you’ve had a bad day? If yes, then imagine the helmsman of the Ever Given who somehow managed to get his giant container ship stuck in the Suez Canal, disrupting global trade and causing economic damage worth millions of dollars each hour. Sure, the blockade won’t sink the global economy (pun intended), but it won’t help it either. After all, the Suez Canal is the gateway between Europe and Asia, through which around 12-13% of world trade flows, as does 30% of the world's daily shipping container freight. So, every day of obstruction disrupted the movement of goods worth about $9 billion, having a significant impact on global trade.Of course, the world won’t end, and ships can always choose an alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, but this route takes several days longer. So, the blockade has significantly delayed the consignments of goods and fuel, and exacerbated the already pandemic-disturbed supply channels. As a reminder, there are shortages of containers, semi-conductors, and other inputs and finished goods, that have significantly lengthened delivery times and pushed prices up. Although the blockade of the Suez Canal was temporary, it added additional disruption on top of existing supply problems. Meanwhile, the central banks and governments interpret everything as demand problems that need to be addressed through easy monetary policy and loose fiscal policy .The accident of the Ever Given won’t significantly impact gold prices. And, as the chart below shows, we haven’t seen any substantial effects so far.However, the blockade could remind investors (if they somehow managed to forget amid the pandemic ) that black swans exist and fly low, and it’s reasonable to have a portion of one’s investment portfolio in safe havens such as gold (for instance, the insurance part of the portfolio ). Additionally, the upward pressure on prices (although limited) could strengthen the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge , especially considering that officially reported inflation is likely to jump next month because of the low base effect and all the recent supply disruptions.Fed Allows for Expiration of SLRAnd now for something completely different. The Federal Reserve Board announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio , or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. What does this mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market?The SLR is a regulation that requires the largest U.S. banks to hold a minimum level of capital. The ratio says how much equity capital the banks have to hold relative to their total leverage exposure (3% in the case of large banks and 5% in the case of top-tier banks). To ease strains in the Treasury market during the Covid-19 epidemic , the Fed temporarily excluded the U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves from the calculation. In other words, banks could increase their holdings of government bonds and central bank reserves without raising equity capital.But now, with the exemption expired, their equity capital will be calculated again relative to the banks’ total leverage exposure, including Treasuries and central bank reserves. So, it might be the case that the banks will have to either increase the amount of equity (which is rather unlikely) or reduce the amount of government bonds. And if they sell Treasuries, it would add to the upward pressure on the bond yields . This would prove rather negative for gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset.However, it doesn’t have to be the case. I mean here that the U.S. eight large and systematically important banks wouldn’t fall below their 5% regulatory minimum. Actually, they are said to have a roughly 25% buffer above minimum thresholds, so the expiry of the SLR exemptions doesn’t have to significantly affect the functioning of the Treasury market, at least not immediately. Hence, the impact of the expiration of the SLR exemption could have limited effect on the gold market , if any.It seems that the price of the yellow metal will be rather shaped by the real interest rates , the U.S. dollar, inflation, the level of confidence in the U.S. economy, etc. In the short-term, the focus on economic recovery could continue the downward pressure on gold prices, but in the long-term, the stagflation theme could resurface and push the price of the yellow metal up.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – Moving Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 31.03.2021 07:54
EURUSD capped by bearish moving averages The US dollar continues to advance across the board supported by improving economic outlook. After a short pause along the 20 and 30-hour moving averages, the sell-off renewed below 1.1760. A further drop below the psychological level of 1.1700 could drive the price towards 1.1600, a critical support level for the ten-month-long rally on the daily chart. As the RSI falls into the oversold area, a limited rebound could be met with selling pressure between the moving averages and 1.1775. NZDUSD weighed by bearish MA cross The New Zealand dollar is still struggling near its five-week lows as the appetite for growth-sensitive currencies fades. The kiwi has had a timid rally after the RSI went sharply into an oversold situation. It was probably due to profit-taking rather than fresh dip-buying. Buyers’ failure to hold onto 0.7000 suggests a lack of commitment after the daily chart showed a bearish MA cross. 0.6940 is the immediate support and a bearish breakout could trigger a new wave of sell-off towards 0.6900. XAGUSD sees limited bounce Silver slipped again amid rising long-term US yields as holding the precious metal would incur a higher opportunity cost. The price has retreated to January’s low at 24.00. Profit-taking from short-term traders may help lift bids while an oversold RSI recovers into neutrality. However, sentiment would remain bearish as long as the price stays below 24.80. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength in case of a rebound near the moving averages. A drop below 23.60 could trigger an extended sell-off into the 22s.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Tax Hikes are Coming

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 31.03.2021 15:54
End of the month and first quarter of 2021. Is time going fast or slow? Markets have been moving at a dizzying pace to start the year.As a side note, this will be our last newsletter for this week because the market is closed on Friday (Apr. 2).The first quarter of 2021 is officially almost finished. Time flies when you’re having fun, right? While a broad correction did not happen by now, as I expected, the Nasdaq did enter correction territory twice since February. Despite the Nasdaq’s muted moves on Tuesday (Mar. 30), it’s right on the edge of its third foray into correction territory.The market themes remain. There is still as much uncertainty for tech stocks today as there were at the start of March. Until there’s some clarity on inflation and bond yields, I can’t foresee this ending anytime soon.Consider this too. President Biden is about to unveil a $2 trillion infrastructure plan during Wednesday’s session (wasn’t it supposed to be $3 trillion?). While this is great for America’s crumbling infrastructure, let’s be honest- does this economy, while recovering, need anymore spending?Plus, how do you think he will pay for this? Hiking taxes- namely corporate taxes . Those gains that high growth stocks saw after Trump cut corporate taxes in 2017 could very well go away. The market may have priced in a lot of optimism. It may have already priced in some pessimism from potential inflation. But one thing it has not priced in is a possible tax hike.This concerns me.Rising bond yields + Rising taxes= A double whammy of bad news for tech stocks.However, despite the “what ifs,” for now, three pillars remain in motion as a strong backdrop for stocks:VaccinesDovish monetary policy full of stimulusFinancial aidMy goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:The market has to figure itself out.More volatility is likely, and we could experience more muted gains than what we’ve come to know over the last year. Inflation, interest-rate worries, and the potential for tax hikes should be the primary tailwinds. However, a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely for now.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Russell 2000- Time to Pounce?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)The climate right now supports the Russell 2000. The current economic policy is tailor-made for small-caps. The best part, though? The Russell is still very buyable.I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after it saw a minor downturn during the second half of February. I wasn’t going to make that mistake again.After the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) went on its latest rally to start March, I checked out the chart. I noticed that almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.Fast forward to Tuesday (Mar. 23). The Russell 2000 saw its worst day since February 25, dropped below its 50-day, and I switched the call to a BUY.Now, as we start the final week in March, we may be looking at the 6th reversal after dipping below its 50-day. The IWM has been up about 3% since March 24.Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.Consider this too. The Russell is on track for its first losing month in almost five months. According to the chart, it may have also found double-bottom support.Based on macro-level tailwinds, its first losing month in five, potentially finding double-bottom support, its RSI, and where it is in relation to the 50-day moving average, I feel that this is a solid time to BUY.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.03.2021 16:03
Yesterday‘s consolidation in stocks was a bullish one, and the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded. Strange but true if you consider that also a plan to considerably raise taxes would be announced today, so as to help pay for the stimulus wave. The bond markets are calmly overlooking that so far, enabling the run to the 4,000 mark.And it still appears a question of time. Inflation isn‘t yet biting (forget about the German CPI data for now), fresh money keeps hitting the markets, and Archegos is about to become a distant memory. Stocks seem immune to the rising yields spell at the moment, meaning that value trades can remain at elevated levels while technology is stuck in no man‘s land and defensives are consolidating recent sharp gains (consolidating until the rising yields come back with vengeance).And there is little reason given the Fed‘s stance why they shouldn‘t. Much of the marketplace is buying into the transitory inflation story, and inflation expectations aren‘t yet running too hot. As the economic growth is stronger than current or future inflation, we‘re still at a good stage in the inflation cycle – everyone benefits and no one pays.When such reflation starts to give way to decreasing or stagnant growth rates accompanied by rising inflation metrics, the stock market performance stops being as positive as it had been since the Mar 2020 bottom. At such a time, the current transitioning to a higher inflation environment would be at a very different (commodity prices) stage, and so would the bond yields (no longer well below 2% on 10-year Treasuries).Points made in my Monday‘s extensive analysis, ring true also today:(…) With 10-year Treasury yields at 1.67%, last week‘s decline didn‘t reach far before turning higher. Remembering stock market woes the first breach of 1.50% caused, stocks have coped well with the subsequent run up – while in the old days of retirees actually being able to live off interest rate income, a level of 4% would bring about trouble for S&P 500, now the level is probably just above 2%. Yes, that‘s how far our financialized economy has progressed – and I look for volatility to rise, and stocks to waver and likely enter a correction at such a bond market juncture. As always, I‘ll be keeping a close eye on the signs, emerging or not, as we approach that yield level.Gold isn‘t yet sensing the coming Fed intervention – similar to Europe or Australia, the central bank would have to take aim at the long end of the curve in earnest – yield curve control I raised mid-Feb already, as twist wouldn‘t be enough at that stage. Look for a full fledged financial repression and deflation standing no chance then – boon to all real assets, a time when gold would truly shine.For now though, Fed‘s credibility isn‘t being questioned and challenged in the markets. Bond yields are rising in an orderly fashion – if you can consider the 2021 run as orderly. I can‘t but I am not calling the shots at the Fed either so as to highlight the record 2021 TLT price extension below its longer-term moving averages. The unchallenged USD/JPY exchange rate shows that the yesterday mentioned yen carry trade is running hot:(…) making it a no brainer to borrow in declining currency while parking the proceeds elsewhere – powerful argument against deflation on our doorstep, by the way.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookStocks consolidated in a bullish fashion, and the stage is set for an upswing next. I see it as merely a question of time, and the early reaction to non-farm employment change, is neutral – look for the key Friday figure though.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) underperformed yesterday as both the investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries rose. The HYG daily volume shows that this upswing isn‘t a done deal yet.Russell 2000 and Emerging MarketsWhile the 500-strong index is basing, both smallcaps (IWM ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF) attempt a turn higher. See how elevated $SPX remained vs. the two – it‘s clear the current upswing is a defensive one.Gold in the SpotlightGold miners weren‘t able to repeat their Monday‘s feat exactly, but aren‘t plunging faster than gold either. Sending inconclusive signals, is the takeaway – unless you step back and look at exactly the same weekly chart, which reveals miners comfortably outperforming the yellow metal. Be still ready for a coming test of my Mar 04 game plan, though.Gold with the overlaid copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio (black line) shows that in the current (consolidation) phase of the commodities bull run, gold has lost its luster with yesterday‘s upswing. Again, how fast and from what level would it regain its footing, is the key question - $1,670 or not.Silver, Platinum and CopperSilver selling pressure unfortunately still dominates as the volume shows. White metal is in the straits much more than copper or platinum, which are merely going sideways (just as oil is).SummaryS&P 500 keeps consolidating Friday‘s gains without signs of upcoming, groundbreaking weakness. With volatility moving down again, the path of least resistance is still up – and tech isn‘t saying no.Gold is again in the proximity of the $1,670 support, and miners‘ performance will send as valuable clues just as before the Mar 08 bottom. Nothing convincing to draw conclusions either way at the moment.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Gold Just Can’t Seem to Breakout

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 31.03.2021 16:18
Confirmed, unconfirmed, verified, and invalidated: breakouts and breakdowns are now ubiquitous. And the implications are bearish for gold.Let’s start today’s analysis with a discussion of the key market that everyone is interested in – gold.Gold’s Failed Breakout – A Sell SignIn short, gold just invalidated its small breakout above the declining blue resistance line. The previous breakout was small and thus it required a confirmation. It never got one, and instead gold plunged, invalidating the move. This is yet another sell sign that we saw.It also serves as further proof that ever since the beginning of the year, gold permabulls (many people continue to claim that gold can only go up, even now) were destroying value rather than creating it. On a side note, we have nothing against checking out the work of other analysts, but we encourage you to check if someone was both bullish and bearish on a given market. If they never changed their mind, it seems that you can save some time by not reading what they come up with, as you already know the outcome. Besides it’s not like they would prepare you in advance for any decline (in case of permabulls).Getting back to the current market situation – since gold moved lower quite visibly yesterday (Mar. 30), and even (almost) reached its early-March high, it might be tempting to think that the decline is over. This seems unlikely in my opinion.The less important reason for the above is visible right on the above chart. Earlier this month, gold topped very close to its triangle-vertex-based reversal. The previous two triangle-vertex-based reversals also triggered declines. So, if something similar triggered similar moves, then it might be worth checking how big did the previous declines end up being.Both previous 2021 declines were followed by quite visible declines. The one that started in early Jan. took gold over $130 lower, and the one that started in mid-Feb. took gold over $170 lower. The current decline started at $1,754.20, so if the history is to rhyme (as it often does), gold would be likely to decline to at least $1,584 - $1,624. This target area corresponds quite well to the support provided by the early Mar. and early Apr. 2020 lows.The more important reasons due to which it seems likely that the decline will continue are: the rally in the USD Index and the rally in the long-term interest rates.The USD’s RallyAs far as the latter is concerned, it seems unlikely that we’ll see the Fed stepping into action with another Operation Twist until the general stock market slides. Otherwise, such a big intervention might seem uncalled for. Consequently, the long-term rates are likely to rally some more. And gold is likely to respond by declining further.As far as the USD Index in concerned, it just moved to new yearly highs, and since the nearest strong resistance is relatively far (from the short-term point of view), it seems that the move higher will continue with only small corrections along the way.The USD Index has not only confirmed the breakout above its Feb. highs, but it even managed to break above the rising red support line. This line, along with the rising black line based on the Feb. and mid-March lows, creates a rising wedge pattern that was already broken to the upside. The moves that tend to follow such breakouts often are as big as the size of the wedge. I used red, dashed lines for this target-determining technique. Based on it, the USD Index is likely to rally to about 96.65.The above target is slightly above the mid-2020 highs, so it might seem more conservative to set the upside target at those highs, close to the 94.5-94.8 area. The mid-2020 highs are likely to trigger a breather, but it doesn’t have to be the case that the USD Index pauses below these highs. Conversely, it could be the case that the USD Index first breaks above the mid-2020 highs and consolidates after the breakout. In fact, that’s what it did with regard to the breakout above the Feb. 2021 highs.Consequently, I’m broadening the target area for the USD Index, so that it now encompasses also the more bullish scenario in which the USDX takes out the mid-2020 highs before consolidating.Either way, we’re currently in the “easy part” of the USD’s rally. Even if it’s going to consolidate at or below the mid-2020 highs, it’s still very likely to first get there, and this implies a move higher by at least another full index point. This means that the gold price is likely to decline some more before finding short-term support. The scenario fits very well with the situation that I outlined based on the gold chart earlier today.Silver LossesSilver just broke to new 2021 lows. Everyone buying silver (futures) in Jan. / Feb. is now at a loss and in an increasingly inconvenient situation.Why would this be important? Because it means that everyone who jumped into the silver market with both feet based on just very brief research (“research”?) which in many cases was following instructions provided at various forums is in a losing position right now.Sometimes the losses are small – for the very few, who were early, but in some cases, the losses are already quite visible – especially for those, who bought close to $30.Why is this important? Because it emphasizes the need to verify the quality of the information that one chooses to act on, and because it’s a tipping point after which the previous buyers are likely to start becoming sellers, thus adding to decline’s sharpness.The “new silver buyers” losses are not huge yet, but after another move lower, they will likely become such and the sales from those buyers would likely make these declines even bigger.When everyone and their brother was particularly bullish on silver a few months ago, I wrote that they might be quite right, but the timing was terrible. So far, the losses for those, who bought silver earlier this year are not that big, but, in my opinion, they are likely to become much bigger in the following weeks.Of course, I expect silver price to soar in the following years (well over $100), but not without plunging first in the short and/or medium term.The Miners’ Relative StrengthLet’s take a look at the mining stocks. In yesterday’s analysis , I explained the likely reason behind the temporary strength in the mining stocks, and I emphasized that it’s not likely to last. This explanation remains up-to-date:Ultimately, it’s never possible to reply to the “why did a given market move” other than that “because buyers won over sellers”. It’s not particularly informative, though. The reason that seems most likely to me is that it was… a purely technical development that “needed” to happen for a formation to be complete.This hypothesis would explain also one odd thing that happened yesterday. Namely, while the GDX closed the day slightly higher, the GDXJ ended the day lower. This would make sense if the general stock market declined ( junior mining stocks – GDXJ tend to follow its lead more than seniors – GDX) – but the point is that the general stock market ended yesterday’s session basically flat (declining by mere 0.09% decline).“Ok, so what kind of formation are miners completing?”Quite likely the head and shoulders formations. The reason for yesterday’s underperformance of the GDXJ would be the fact that in case of this ETF’s head-and-shoulders formation , the neckline is descending much more visibly. These formations are more visible on the 4-hour charts – so, let’s zoom in.Currently – based on yesterday’s (Mar. 30) closing prices – both formations are completed, and while it could still be the case that both ETFs move back to their previous necklines to verify the breakdowns, the implications are already bearish for the short term.The price targets based on those formations are $29.6 and $40.7 for the GDX and GDXJ, respectively. However, let’s keep in mind that the H&S-based targets should be viewed as “minimum” targets, not necessarily the final ones.All in all, the technical picture currently favors lower precious metals (and mining stock) prices over the next several weeks. In my view, this is either the middle or the final part of the very final decline in the precious metals market, before it takes off based on multiple positive factors of long-term nature.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Stock ATHs and Gold Double Bottom

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.04.2021 15:25
Bullish run in stocks that lost steam before the close – does that qualify as a reversal? Given the other moves such as in the Dow Industrials, Russell 2000 and emerging markets, it‘s unlikely that the S&P 500 met more than a temporary setback. Just look at the rush into risk-on assets as an immediate reaction to the infrastructure and taxation plans – see the high yield corporate bonds moving higher (and this time also investment grade corporate bonds finally) as long-dated Treasuries keep losing ground, and the dollar noticeably wavered.Yes, emerging worries about how this will be all paid for – not that an ideological challenge to modern monetary theory would be gaining any traction, but rather what would be the (quite predictable) effect of steep tax increases? Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.So, the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded (more profits!) as:(…) Stocks seem immune to the rising yields spell at the moment, meaning that value trades can remain at elevated levels while technology is stuck in no man‘s land and defensives are consolidating recent sharp gains (consolidating until the rising yields come back with vengeance).And there is little reason given the Fed‘s stance why they shouldn‘t. Much of the marketplace is buying into the transitory inflation story, and inflation expectations aren‘t yet running too hot. As the economic growth is stronger than current or future inflation, we‘re still at a good stage in the inflation cycle – everyone benefits and no one pays.Neither the 10-year Treasury yield, nor inflation expectations as measured by TIP:TLT ratio or RINF, are signalling trouble for the stock market. It‘s only commodities ($CRB) that have been consolidating through March – but that‘s of little consequence if you switch the view to a weekly chart (a bullish flag). The path of least resistance remains higher, and that rings true for copper, base metals, agrifoods or oil. If in doubt, look at lumber marching unimpeded to new highs.Precious metals are noticing the changing leadership baton, and have rebounded. Anticipating the copper upswing next? So much of the red metal would be needed in the years to come, whatever the actual rate of car fleet electrification. The same for ubiquitous silver applications well beyond solar panels. The cry in our Roaring Twenties is for more copper, nickel, zinc – just wait when the industrial giants‘ hunger for raw materials turns its focus onto Wall Street as the key sourcing (prospecting) place.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsStocks haven‘t genuinely reversed yesterday – the slighly higher volume doesn‘t pass the smell test. Higher highs are the most likely scenario next.A bit mixed picture in the market breadth indicators at first sight, but not more concerning than on a daily basis only. More volume behind the upswings is missing, essentially – and new highs new lows are lagging behind their mid-Mar highs. I expect the situation to be resolved over the coming week, as tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls won‘t likely disappoint market expectation too much really.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) confirmed the stock market upswing with a bullish move on high volume, closing at daily highs. The slow motion run into risk-on again appears underway.Tech, Value and FinancialsTech (XLK ETF) rose, and so did industrials (XLI) before retreating similarly to consumer staples (XLP ETF) or real estate (XLRE ETF). Value stocks (VTV ETF) and financials (XLF ETF) scored modest declines too, but I chalk it down to the indiscriminate selling wave into the close – it‘s a temporary setback only.Gold in the SpotlightBoth gold and gold miners rebounded strongly yesterday as the futures touched $1,680. Rising volume behind both moves, yet a partial retreat before the close – not really worrying. The key point to note is the higher high miners made when compared to their pre-Mar 08 levels.Gold‘s Force index is likely to cross over into positive territory finally again, and the open question is for how long it remains there. Thus far, there is no reason to doubt the rebound‘s veracity. The missing piece in the puzzle is the copper to Treasury yields ratio, which should better start confirming the upswing so as to lend it more credibility.Silver, Platinum and CopperSilver jumped higher as well, being a little weaker than the yellow metal in comparison, which is fine given the upcoming precious metals upleg being led by the king of metals. The key move happened in copper, which would truly power the upswing once it clears the $4.10 zone. The other side of the coin is where would the 10-year Treasury yield trade at that time, of course.SummaryS&P 500 is likely to challenge the 4,000 mark before too long, and the stock market bull top remains very far in sight thereafter still.Precious metals rebounded, and miners confirm the gold move. Once the commodities consolidation is over and copper joins in the party, the sky would get clearer for both metals sensing the upcoming Fed (yield curve control) move.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.04.2021 17:23
Biden just announced an ambitious and expensive infrastructure plan. Will it rebuild gold?Yesterday (Mar. 31), President Joe Biden the big infrastructure plan , the second major legislative initiative after the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan passed in early March. The proposal includes about $2.2 trillion in new spending over eight years, boosting government expenditures even further .Despite the name, the plan assumes that only a part would be spent on infrastructure. To be more specific, Biden wants to spend $600 billion on transportation infrastructure (such as bridges, roads, airports, etc.), and more than $300 billion on improving utilities infrastructure (drinking-water pipes, electric grids, broadband). He also proposes to put more than $300 billion into building and upgrading housing and schools, $400 billion to care for elderly and disabled Americans, and almost $600 billion in research and development infrastructure, manufacturing, and job training.That doesn’t sound bad at all (after all, infrastructure is critical), but there is a catch. The plan assumes that all the spending will be financed by tax hikes. Biden proposes to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from the 21 percent set by Trump to 28 percent, as well as to eliminate all fossil fuel industry subsidies and loopholes. So, according to the proposal, the tax reforms will add about 0.5 percent of GDP in fiscal revenues, which are believed to fully pay for investments within the next 15 years.Implications for GoldWhat does Biden’s infrastructure plan mean for the U.S. economy? Well, I won’t argue that American infrastructure needs upgrading. There is a bipartisan agreement here. The problem is, however, that government spending programs are usually inefficient, and cost more than initially planned . Additionally, the plan seeks to give the government a significant role in new important areas, and to introduce anti-business and pro-labor unions regulations.So, generally speaking, the proposal stems from Biden’s progressive belief that government can and should be a primary driver for economic growth, which is just plain wrong. As both economic theory and empirics show, the private sector is inherently more efficient than the bureaucrats (you can ask people in the former communist countries whether it’s true). Such a revolution in U.S. economic policy will weaken the allocative efficiency and hamper the long-term pace of economic growth.Last but not least, the idea to raise taxes when the economy hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic recession is controversial, at least. Higher taxes will weaken corporate America and redistribute resources from the private sector to the public sector, negatively affecting the economy in the long-run. As well, I don’t believe that the tax revenues will fully finance the plan, so the fiscal deficits will increase further, ballooning even more the already mammoth pile of federal debt (see the chart below).And how will Biden’s infrastructure plan affect the gold market? Well, in the long-run, higher government spending, public debts, inflation , and corporate taxes should hamper the pace of economic growth and weaken corporate America and Wall Street. Hence, the proposal could be positive for gold prices, at least from the fundamental point of view .However, Biden’s bold actions seem to be welcomed so far by the financial markets. This is because the fiscal stimulus – and the rollout of vaccination – is strengthening the risk appetite. There are also hopes that the “go big” approach will allow the American economy to recover more swiftly than previously expected and quicker than its European peers. These expectations could propel the bond yields further up (see the chart below), also strengthening the U.S. dollar, and creating additional downward pressure on the gold prices .Therefore, although the Fed will have to step in and ease its monetary policy if the interest rates rise too much, the bond yields have room to move higher. This upward trend could continue to put gold under pressure , unless the yellow metal finds a way to diverge from its relationship with interest rates, for example, by attracting more investors worried about inflation.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – Rally Overheated

Intraday Market Analysis – Rally Overheated

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.04.2021 08:56
USDCHF sees rally over-stretchedThe US dollar tanked after an increase in US jobless claims tempered market optimism. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at 0.9470 since last July.The RSI has repeatedly ventured into the overbought area and suggested that the rally could have overextended itself.0.9400 is the immediate support and a bearish breakout could trigger a broader sell-off to 0.9350. Below that, a deeper pullback may lead the price action towards the medium-term support level at 0.9220 on the daily chart.AUDUSD bounces back to resistanceThe Aussie has found support from better-than-expected retail sales of -0.8% versus a consensus of -1.1%.Following the pair’s fall below the daily trendline and the key floor at 0.7580, the market has turned into a consolidation mood.An oversold RSI has triggered some short-covering, but the current rebound may attract more sellers in the supply zone around 0.7660.A bullish breakout could raise offers to 0.7750. Failing that, the price action would remain in a downward trajectory and test 0.7530 once again.EURNZD looks for Fibonacci supportThe euro is struggling to keep its balance between upbeat PMI and new lockdowns.The pair has been trying to rebound from last March’s bottom near 1.6330. After establishing a base around 1.65 the price action has surged with solid momentum.The current retracement is testing the 50% Fibonacci level (1.6730). A deeper correction would test the 61.8% level.1.6890 is a critical resistance on the upside, and if buyers succeed in clearing the way the euro could extend the rally above the psychological level of 1.7.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Silver, Focus on resilience

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.04.2021 07:25
Silver’s price faces just the same strain. Much influenced by various strings pulling. It is essential to stay focused on the prime fundamentals and the clear long-term case for the shiny metal. Numbers for demand are overwhelmingly positive, and the fact that news coverage is strong doesn’t justify the temporary price dip to be principle-based.It is not easy to be a contrarian, yet it is very rewarding. We firmly believe this to be another rare opportunity to add to one’s physical holdings of Silver.The four cornerstones for resilience are:You. Take care of yourself first. A year without gyms, cooped up at home, and social isolation took a toll. Make sure you are balanced.People. No matter if corporate or family. We all went through this. As a result, people, worn out and making more mistakes, have changed. Don’t take your spouse and kids for granted. Treat your loved ones with extra care and renourish. They are your backbone. Accept that people essential to your business might not be as reliable as they used to be. Reevaluate partnerships and supply chains and have a watchful eye where your business is vulnerable. This is especially important if you trade with other people’s money.Technology. With supply chains banged up, it is wise to have backup systems in place and not expect smooth operations in case of extraordinary circumstances. Have necessary parts stockpiled and be self-dependent.Operations. Check your operations for their processes, people, and technology. Think risk control over efficiency. Form KYC to regulatory changes and increased fraud; this isn’t a time to streamline and maximize. Instead, set up systems to monitor compliance, strengthen your partnerships and supply chain reliance. Overall under the motto: “Never assume!” as we are now living in a world of fast change.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Last week´s setup:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 24th, 2021.We posted this chart in last week’s Silver chartbook publication.  Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Execution on the plan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 1st, 2021.Since prices moved into our pre-planned entry zone of the yellow circle, we posted two entries live on our free Telegram channel. We were able to take already partial profits based on our Quad exit strategy to eliminate risk and are now holding two runners.Sideways range entries like these with quick risk elimination are representative of resilience. One doesn’t know which one of these entries will be the one where the remainder position size will break through the upper boundary of the range. One doesn’t need to. As long as the entries are low risk, this engagement in a tough sideways zone with the clarity of great success once the range breaks in the direction of the trend supports persistent efforts.Monthly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver-Focus on resilience, The edge on our side:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.It is a misconception that one needs to be right to make money. But the ego constantly suggests us to find that best entry price. However, there is no such thing. We need to try resiliently until we get it right and control risk and reward ratios over sample sizes. An effort that requires a resilient mindset.A look at the most critical large time frame chart above shows three crucial factors.A preceding strong directional leg from US$12 to US$30 indicating a trend.A very favorable risk-reward ratio for the large time frame players.And if you have a closer look within the red box, you will find excellent volume transaction support below the price we are trading right now.Trading is a business no matter what time frame. You are in charge of wealth preservation and creation and you are the core anchor. Hence, you need to be in the best shape. Review your business plan and be aware that resilience requires a review of your breaking points. While we typically streamline business for efficiency, resilience points towards risk control and a look at dependencies. Ask yourself what can be learned from last year’s challenges and what can be done that similar surprise events do not negatively impact your business.Silver, Focus on resilience:Why did we pick this topic? Because trading and investment systems are only as good as their weakest link. With human error in trading being the number one equity curve killer, you are the weakest link. With change gaining speed, we find a top-down approach necessary to assure resilience to act upon the opportunities that change offers, maturely and fittingly. It isn’t business as usual; these times require extra preparation for the long haul.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 2nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.04.2021 15:13
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).The Fed thus far quite succeeded in passing the inflation threat off as transitory, but the rebalancing into a higher inflation envrionment is underway – just look at the bullish consolidation across many commodities.The crucial copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio is slowly turning higher as the red metal defends gained ground, oil rebound is progressing and lumber is moving to new highs. And don‘t forget the surging soybeans and corn either. Apart from having positive influence upon S&P 500 materials or real estate sectors, precious metals have welcomed the turn, rebounding off the double bottom with miners‘ leadership and silver not getting too hot yet. And that‘s positive for the white metal‘s coming strong gains – let alone the yellow one‘s.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsSlightly lower volume during the whole week and Friday is merely a short-term non-confirmation. It isn’t a burning issue as stocks closed the week on a strong note. The bullish price action on the heels of improving credit markets and technology-led S&P 500 upswing, has good chances of going on.See by how much market breadth improved vs. Thursday – both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume turned reasonably higher, and given the tech leadership in the upswing, new highs new lows merely levelled off. For them to turn higher, value stocks would have to step to the fore again.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio confirmed the stock market upswing with its own bullish move, and the two are overlaid quite nicely at the moment. No whiff of non-confirmation here.Tech and ValueTech (XLK ETF) rose strongly, and value stocks (VTV ETF) stocks more than defended prior gains. Even financials (XLF ETF) moved higher, regardless of the rising Treasuries. The breadth of the stock market advance isn‘t weak at all, after all.Gold in the SpotlightLet‘s quote the assessment from my Easter update:(…) There had been indeed something about the gold decoupling from rising Treasury yields that I had been raising for countless weeks. The rebound off Mar 08 low retest is plain out in the open, miners keep outperforming on the upside, and the precious metals sector faces prospects of gradual recovery, basing with a tendency to trade higher before the awaited Fed intervention on the long end of the curve comes – should the market force its hand mightily enough. Either way for now, given the rising inflation and inflation expectations, a retreat in nominal rates translates into a decline in real rates, which is what gold loves.That‘s the dynamic of calm days – once the Fed finally even hints at capping yields, expect gold fireworks. Remember, the ECB, Australia and others are in that fight at the long end of the curve already. And with so much inflation in the pipeline as the PPI underscores, an inflationary spike is virtually baked in the cake.Another weekly gold chart, this time with miners overlaid. Since the Mar 08 bottom, their outperformance has become very apparent, and miners made a higher high as gold approached the bottom last week. Coupled with the waning power of the sellers, these are positive signs for the precious metals sector.Gold‘s daily chart reveals the rebound‘s veracity – just as sharp as the dive to the second bottom was. Silver moved higher, scoring smaller gains than the yellow metal, which isn‘t however an issue as the white metal tends to outperform in the latter stages of precious metals upswings. We aren‘t there yet, and haven‘t seen it outperform in mid-Mar either.SummaryS&P 500 has challenged and conquered the 4,000 mark, and the upswing‘s internals keep being aligned bullishly. No sharp correction in sight indeed.Precious metals rebound lives on, accompanied by the miners‘ outperformance. Copper and many commodities keep consolidating, which is actually bullish given the retreat in yields. Another confirmation of the approaching upleg in commodities and precious metals as inflation starts running hotter and hotter.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Bitcoin is invaluable - 06.04.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.04.2021 10:10
In fact, Bitcoin is a decentralized global digital network which in essence is transforming analog assets into digital assets. It has been growing at 200% a year. Now after 12 years in existence Bitcoin is a digital trillion-dollar network.What supports its long-term stability is that its decentralization and transparency are immune against policy. While we typically at the mercy of policymakers and as such a middleman that can manipulate the use of a payment method, with Bitcoin, the individual is genuinely safe. Looking at the world around us where it is hard to find any field not infiltrated by groups who seek to take advantage, manipulate, and flat out lie, it is a true need one can trust a store of value to benchmark against.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Our chart from last week’s chartbook:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.We posted the above short to midterm chart prediction in our last week’s chartbook publication.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, As anticipated-another leg up:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 29th, 2021.The market unfolded quite as planned. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Health and sustainability:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.If we analyze Bitcoin prices advancing from last August’s lows, we can find an intact Elliot impulse wave pattern. The Health and sustainability of this trend are derived from the three propulsion proportions. While advancing strongly in the first wave with a 323 % advancement, the pace cooled down to a 99% second leg upward. These stunning advancements followed yet again by a more moderate increase of 44% to its recent all-time highs. This abstinence of a blow-off top or run-away train allows us to believe that prices could march higher.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is invaluable, Projections:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.When examining projections, we like to stack odds by looking at both a time and a price component. The above chart shows this blend using a time cycle approach (vertical lines) and a Fibonacci extension probability measurement. Stacking these projection tools would lead us to a price target near ninety-seven thousand for the mid-next year. Our “conservative” projection is marked with the yellow circle on the top right of the chart.Bitcoin is invaluable:Looking around, and you will find that the Dollar is what around the world most value storage is bench-marked against. It seems frightening to us since the Dollar has no gold standard or otherwise intrinsic value that we still give it this much power only based on a belief. With economic powers shifting towards the east and a lack of political and economic leadership, beliefs can change, and as such, currency stability is endangered. Hedging your store of value through an instrument that holds intrinsic value based on principles over beliefs seems more than logical.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 30th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Bitcoin – Grab it while you can

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.04.2021 10:11
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Accelerated moves:Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of April 5th, 2021.Looking at the logarithmic monthly chart of Bitcoin above, you can see Bitcoin’s unique trading behavior. Each of the five thrusts in the last ten years were unique in their structure. After a brief steep decline (red) follows a strong bounce to the break-even point (yellow). This consistent strength in itself is notable. Truly remarkable is what comes after. Prices accelerate substantially further up (turquoise). It is these boost moves in their consistency that we have not seen in any other instrument. It makes Bitcoin unique and creates an edge for the trader as well as the investor.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Favorable abnormalities:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 5th, 2021.What has changed over the years is the substructure of moves within smaller time frames. The weekly chart above shows clearly how retracements are very flat within the last twelve months. Supply-demand imbalances are widening since the number of coins free in the markets for speculation and trade is shrinking due to corporate hoarding of coins. Larger size offers are quickly gobbled up, which leads to small percentage retracements. This lines up with our fundamental findings observing exchange and corporate Bitcoin wallets. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Exploiting stacked edges:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 5th, 2021.This stacking of odds both fundamentally and charts-wise on the larger time frames leads us to market participation. When low-risk opportunities presented themselves in fulfillment of our daily call pre-setup, we posted a trade entry in our free Telegram channel on April 5th 2021. We were already able to eliminate risk based on our Quad exit strategy. With prices now trading above our volume fractal analysis representing support (green horizontal line), we are positioned in case Bitcoin should break out to new highs.Bitcoin – Grab it while you can:The fundamental reason for these price explosions is hoarding. One aspect is hodlers. Another aspect is the limited amount of Bitcoin. Only 21 million coins will exist with the final coins being minted in around 2140. Once the circulating supply reaches its maximum, Bitcoin miners will no longer receive block rewards. Currently, just over 18.5 million BTC has been produced, equivalent to minting 88.3% of the maximum supply in just over a decade. This alone would have a negligible effect, though, on overall trading behavior. What started supporting these accelerated moves was when many newbies came into the market to buy a Bitcoin or two to just let them sit on an exchange. Still not atypical for a multi-wave acceleration. Now the common picture has turned. We see many sizeable withdrawals from exchanges into wallets that typically do not show any distribution. This genuinely aggressive hoarding behavior of prominent players like hedge funds and pension funds, and large corporate players cause another more dramatic supply imbalance on the already limited supply of Bitcoin. Facts that fundamentally support the general belief that Bitcoin is a genuine alternative to Gold as wealth storage.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 6th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.04.2021 15:59
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill. Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.Both the VIX and put/call ratio are at extended levels – the first below 18 (formerly unimaginable to stock market non-bulls), the second approaching local lows again. As I have written yesterday:(…) Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.It‘s the (extra Archegos related?) liquidity that has helped to erase quite steeper intraday decline in the long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF) but the dollar took it on the chin. Quoting my yesterday‘s dollar observations:(…) As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.The Fed thus far quite succeeded in passing the inflation threat off as transitory, but the rebalancing into a higher inflation envrionment is underway – just look at the bullish consolidation across many commodities.Apart from oil, there have been quite a few commodity moves up yesterday – copper leading the rebound out of its sideways pattern, lumber reaching for new highs, agrifoods far from breaking below consolidation lows. These are the pockets of strength as the $CRB index moved down yesterday.Not the case of precious metals, if a joint view is taken. The rebound off the double bottom goes on, miners are in the pool position (senior ones, that is), and silver isn‘t reaching for the stars yet.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookQuite an overshoot above the mid-Feb and mid-Mar highs, daily indicators are quite extended, and sideways trading today would be a bullish achievement. The upswing continuation next isn‘t in jeopardy in the least though.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is trading in lockstep with the stock market upswing, sending no warning signs.Tech, Finance and UtilitiesTech (XLK ETF) rose strongly, and financials (XLF) as one of the value stocks (VTV ETF) bellwethers moved higher regardless of the intraday turn in TLT, which was however embraced by defensives such as utilities (XLU ETF). Quite good market breadth still.Gold and SilverGold not moving much while miners rose still, which is bullish for the full precious metals sector – the upswing simply continues, and as each of the resistances ($1,760s being the next one) is cleared, the odds of no retest of the second bottom rise. Needless to say, seeing gold and miners roll over from here, wouldn‘t be a bullish development at all.Silver didn‘t rise yesterday, which is of little consequence though, as the white metal is famed for moving in bursts at times. Given the copper performance, especially in the face of barely budging Treasury yields, both precious metals stand a good chance of rising today. The degree of miners‘ outperformance would provide further clues.SummaryS&P 500 run above 4,070 is likely to be consolidated but I‘m not looking for a sharp correction starting here in the least. Tech could face short-term headwinds now given its upcoming resistance test, but that‘s about it.Precious metals rebound goes on, with the miners still outperforming. Copper though appears pointing the way higher now too as the approaching upleg in commodities and precious metals in response to inflation running hotter and hotter, gains traction.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Dollar is Back

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.04.2021 16:43
Previously dismissed, the USDX may now be back with a vengeance. Sentiment is swinging away from shorts and there is an uncanny historical pattern.With a potential bearish pattern already broken, the USDX is resuming its journey northward. And why is it geared to do well? Is it because the U.S. economy is ripping head? Definitely not - that’s not happening. It’s rather because other regions (think Europe and Japan) are doing even worse.The dollar’s imminent rise doesn’t mean that gold can’t still experience some very short-term upswing, but for the medium-term, the precious metals continue to face bearish headwinds.With the greenback laying back and enjoying a well-deserved Easter vacation, gold, silver and the gold miners avoided a dollar-drama for at least another day. However, with the USD Index working to regain its supremacy, along with investors’ respect, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has quietly dissipated from the investing zeitgeist.Case in point: the USD Index has broken above its monthly declining resistance line and has already made four new highs since the New Year. More importantly though, because the precious metals have a strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, the upward momentum has coincided with an 8.78% drawdown of gold, a 6.18% drawdown of silver and a 6.41% drawdown of the GDX ETF.Please see below:And showing no signs of slowing down, with a well-rested USD Index itching to get back to work, we could see ‘business as usual’ in the coming days. On Apr. 2, I warned that a short-term correction could usher the USD Index back to its March high.That’s exactly what happened yesterday (Apr. 5).However, with the corrective culmination approaching the finish line, the USD Index remains poised to resume its uptrend.Adding to the optimism, the tide has already gone out on a sea full of USD Index shorts. And because Warren Buffett once said that “only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked,” highly leveraged speculators could be the next to follow.Please see below:To explain, notice how oversold periods in 2014 and 2018 – where net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest (based on the CoT data) was extremely high – preceded sharp rallies in the USD Index? Thus, with 2021 the most extreme on record, the forthcoming rally should be significant.How significant? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Wayback PlaybackLet’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, so without paying attention to tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer), let’s focus on the more meaningful ones (like the one that we see right now – the net positions just became visibly positive – over 16%, after being very negative for quite some time.In short, that’s how the following profound rallies started:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114.Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the very bullish analogy to the 2018 rally remains intact. Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Friday (Apr. 2):What we saw yesterday definitely qualifies as a small correction. In fact, even if it was doubled it would still be small. And – more importantly – it would be in perfect tune with what happened in 2018 during the big rally.After rallying visibly above the:93 level200-day moving average61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the final part of the declinethe USD Index moved back below the 93 level. This happened in May 2018 and it happened last week.Since both rallies are so similar, it’s nothing odd that we see a pullback in a similar situation.Back in 2018, the pullback was small and quick. It ended without the USD Index reaching its 200-day moving average. The pullback ended when the USDX moved approximately to its previous high and slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Applying this to the current situation (previous high at about 92.5, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at about 92.7, and the 200-day moving average at 92.66), it seems that the USD Index would be likely to find its bottom in the 92.3 – 92.7 area.Because of this, the outlook remains profoundly bearish for the gold , silver , and mining stocks over the medium term (even though the next few days are relatively unclear, especially due to gold’s triangle-vertex based reversal that’s due this week ). If you analyze the table below, you can see that the precious metals tend to move inversely to the U.S. dollar.The 2017-2018 AnalogueBut as the most important development affecting the precious metals, the USD Index’s 2017-2018 analogue is already unfolding before our eyes. With this version likely to be titled ‘The Resurgence: Part 2,’ while history often rhymes, it’s rare for it to rhyme with this level of specificity . For context, in 2018, the USD Index’s breakout above its 50-day moving average is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. And after the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is 94.5.Even more ominous for the precious metals, when the USD Index turned a short-term decline into consolidation in mid-2018, can you guess what happened next? Well, the USD Index moved significantly higher, while gold moved significantly lower.Please see below:USDX Broke a Potential Bearish PatternLikewise, a potentially bearish pattern that I had been monitoring – where the USD Index’s price action from July to October 2020 mirrored the price action from December 2020 to February/March 2021– has officially been broken . With the USD Index’s medium-term breakout trumping the former, the potentially bearish pattern has been invalidated and the USD Index remains on a journey to redemption.But to what end?Well, if we look back at 2020, the USD Index attempted to recapture its previous highs. But lacking the upward momentum, the failure was followed by a sharp move lower. Today, however, the USD Index has broken above its previous highs and the greenback verified the breakout by consolidating, moving back toward the previous lows and rising once again. Now, the USD Index is visibly above its previous highs .Taken together, and given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. And in the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.No, not because the U.S. is doing so great in economic terms. It’s because it’s doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative performance that matters, not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, while the USD Index’s decline on Apr. 5 created a goldilocks environment for the precious metals, the latter should have enjoyed a much larger upswing. However, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield jumping by another 2.37% and the precious metals still shaken from a string of false breakouts, their relatively weak performance was quite revealing. Think about it: if gold, silver and the gold miners can’t make up ground when their main adversary retreats, how are they likely to respond when the USD Index regains its mojo? As a result, with the USD Index’s attitude about to shift from accommodating to unkind, gold, silver and the gold miners will likely see lower levels before forming a lasting bottom.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 06.04.2021 20:49
In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher.In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup.  The way the US Dollar reacts to stress factors in the global markets is to strengthen as a safe haven as capital is constantly seeking the best environment for investment and profits.  When the markets enter a period of turmoil, the US Dollar typically begins to strengthen before the global markets really begin to react to the fear or turmoil.The recent news of large financial institutions and hedge funds taking large losses and closing operations is somewhat similar to the Lehman event of 2008.  These types of larger corporate debt collapses have wide-range global market effects.  Sometimes, these events can ripple into other global corporations who engaged in this level of financing or credit functions.  For example, Credit Suisse's attempt to recoup potential losses from the Greensill collapse may be a very complicated and fruitless process according to a recent Wall Street Journal article.Weekly US Dollar Shows Uptrend StartingThe current US Dollar Weekly chart, below, shows how the US Dollar has strengthened over the past 3 months and how this current uptrend aligns with the $89 lows from early 2018.  One of the most interesting aspects of this chart is the peak in early 2020, as the COVID-19 virus market collapse bottomed, which was followed by an extended decline.  As mentioned earlier, the US Dollar acts as a safe haven during times of uncertainty and chaos.  Obviously, the initial COVID-19 market selloff prompted quite a bit of uncertainty and chaos, prompting the US Dollar to rise nearly 9% in just two weeks.  Does the current upside trending in the US Dollar translate into more uncertainty and chaos in the markets?Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!The recent bottom on this Weekly US Dollar chart happened on January 6, 2021. This was the day that Congress certified the US state electors.  It was also the day that chaos took place in Washington DC.  From that point onward, the US Dollar began a decidedly upward price trend.  Since that low on January 6, the US Dollar has risen over 4.60%.  Over that same time, the SPY has rallied more than 7.5%, which obviously fails to show any US or global market concerns.Weekly Smart Cash vs. US Dollar CorrelationsThe following chart shows the US Dollar (as a GOLD line) and our Custom Smart Cash Index (as a BLUE line) and highlights the threshold of the US Dollar that usually prompts a breakdown in price in the stock market.  The ORANGE threshold level on this chart for the US Dollar is 94.10 and the PURPLE threshold level on this chart 99.50.  Once the US Dollar reaches levels above the ORANGE threshold, the SPY becomes much more volatile and tends to retrace lower over time.  Once the US Dollar reaches above the PURPLE threshold, it appears the US Dollar reaches major resistance, stalls, and contracts, which prompts a fairly large upside price trend in the SPY.Currently, the US Dollar Index is trading just above 93.00 and it just 1.1 away from the ORANGE threshold.  Should the US Dollar continue to rally over the next few weeks and months, our research suggests the US stock market will enter a period of increased volatility with broad sector trending/rotation.  As you can see on this chart, near the end of 2018, the US Dollar Index rallied above the ORANGE threshold while the Custom Smart Cash Index entered a period of extended price volatility (2019 through the COVID-19 bottom in 2020).  Once the US Dollar Index fell back below the ORANGE threshold (July/August 2020), the Custom Smart Cash Index began to rally estensively.The current rally in the US stock market will likely continue until the US Dollar Index moves comfortably over the ORANGE threshold, there is a strong possibility the US stock market will enter a period of extended volatility and trending.  That means that the current bullish price trend may enter a broader rally phase – targeting a new excess phase peak.  Or, it may shift into more of a sideways price trend with a broad range of price rotation – like what happen in 2015 to 2016.Interestingly enough, near the end of 2016, as the US stock market bottomed and began to rally, the sectors that lead that rally included precious metals, miners, utilities, regional banking, and technology (later in 2017).  This suggests we need to watch metals & miners as well as utilities and regional banking sectors later in 2021.Currently, the leading sector trends are Real Estate, REITS, US Financials, Global Infrastructure, Global Natural Resources, Technology, Consumer Services, and Aerospace & Defense.  These leading sectors suggest many traders/investors believe the next few years will be filled with various advantages in technology, raw materials, consumer activities and infrastructure/defense spending.  Get ready for some really big trends in various sectors and be prepared to jump into some of these bigger trends.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.Happy Trading!
On the Verge of Stocks Pullback

On the Verge of Stocks Pullback

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.04.2021 15:51
S&P 500 is still consolidating Monday‘s sharp gains, showered with liquidity. Yet it seems that eking out further gains is getting harder as the price action took the index quite far from its key moving averages. If I had to pick one sign of stiffer headwinds ahead, it would be the tech sector‘s reaction to another daily retreat in Treasury yields – the sector didn‘t rally, and neither did the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Value stocks saved the day, and it appears we‘re about to see them start doing better again, relatively speaking.Yes, the risk-reward ratio for the bulls is at unsavory levels in the short run. What about being short at this moment then? It all depends upon the trading style, risk tolerance and time horizon. I‘m not looking for stocks making a major top here as the bull run is intact thanks to:(..) Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill. Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.My prognosis for yesterday‘s session materialized, and we have seen quite a record number (around 95%) of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, which is similar to the setup right after the post-dotcom bubble bear market 2002/3 lows, or 1-2 years after the bull market run off the Mar 2009 lows. Hard to say which one is more hated, but I see the run from Mar 2020 generational low as the gold medal winner, especially given the denial accompanying it since.Gold made a run above $1,740 in line with retreating yields and copper not giving up much gained ground, but the immediate run‘s continuation to the key $1,760s or even better above $1,775 looks set to have to wait for a few sessions. I don‘t expect today‘s FOMC minutes release to change that. While the metals are likely to take their time, the healthy miners‘ outperformance supports its continuation once the soft patch we appear entering, is over.The Thursday called dollar downswing is playing out, putting a floor below the commodities, which are undergoing a much needed correction from their late Feb top. It‘s not over yet, and the shy AUD/USD upswing is but one clue. Given the oil price meandering around $60 (by the way, not even the unlikely decline to $52 would break black gold‘s bull run), the USD/CAD performance as of late is disappointing, as the greenback got mostly stronger since mid Mar. More patience in the commodities arena appears probable as we‘re waiting for both Treasury yields and inflation expectations to start rising again.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe SPX headwinds are readily apparent, and a brief pullback would be healthy. Don‘t look though for too much downside.Russell 2000 and Emerging MarketsSmallcaps are still underperforming for now, but emerging markets scored gains thanks to improving yield differentials and another down day in the world reserve currency.Focus on TechnologyTech (XLK ETF) was the key retreating sector yesterday – little wonder the mid Feb resistance it‘s approaching. The big names ($NYFANG, black line) are lagging behind still, showing that the sector got a little ahead of itself on a short-term basis.Gold and SilverGold‘s Force index finally crossed into positive territory, but the yellow metal isn‘t taking yet advantage of retreating yields in a visually outstanding way. Quite some resistance in the $1,740s needs to be cleared first, which would likely take a while, but the rally‘s internals are still on the bulls‘ side.Gold miners keep strongly outperforming the yellow metal, with the seniors (GDX ETF) doing particularly great – better than gold juniors or silver miners. Seeing signs of the silver sector getting too ahead, wouldn‘t likely be bullish at all unless sustained – at the current stage, I can‘t underline these words enough in the ongoing physical silver squeeze.Gold to Silver RatiosSince the gold bottom was hit in early Mar (that‘s still the leading hypothesis), the precious metals‘ leadership has moved to the yellow metal – and it‘s visible in both the gold to silver ratio and gold miners to silver miners one. The time for the white metal to (out)shine would come, but clearly isn‘t and won‘t be here any day now.SummaryS&P 500 is likely to keep consolidating gained ground, and (shallow) bear raids wouldn‘t be unexpected here – in spite of solid corporate credit markets performance. Yet, it‘s the extraordinary nature of VIX trading and put/call ratio moves, that point to the bull market run as intact and merely in need of a breather.Precious metals are likely to run into short-term headwinds before clearing out the next major set of resistances above $1,760s. The upswing though remains healthy and progressing, and will be led by the gold sector.
Fed Officials Shift Focus to Inflation Amid European and British Currency Upside Momentum

Intraday Market Analysis – Deeper Correction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.04.2021 08:14
USDJPY continues to pull back The US dollar struggles to find buyers amid dovish FOMC minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the psychological level of 111.00 from last March. An RSI divergence was an indication that the rally was already losing steam. A breakout below 109.30 could trigger a deeper correction to the demand area between 108.40 and the 30-day moving average found on the daily chart. A rebound will need to lift offers around 110.55 first before more buyers would commit their chips. USOIL awaits breakout Oil prices came under pressure after data showed an increase in US oil production at the end of March. The upbeat sentiment has softened after the US crude dipped below the 20 and 30-day moving averages for the first time in four months. The bearish MA cross may attract more sellers. On the hourly chart, the price action is currently in a rectangle consolidation between 57.20 and 62.20. A bearish breakout could trigger a broader sell-off towards 52s, while 64.70 would be the immediate target on the upside. UK 100 tests major resistance The FTSE 100 has reached a three-month high after Boris Johnson confirmed that the UK’s economy would reopen next week. The index is rising along the 20-hour moving average and is heading towards the previous high at 6960. A breakout above that major resistance could open the door to the pre-covid level (7400). The RSI has entered the overbought area and may draw a temporary pullback. In this case, the resistance-turned-support 6805 would be the level to watch for trend followers.
Investors Are Worried That Elon Musk Is Losing His Focus | The Eurozone Recession Can Dampen Investors’ Hopes

Morgan Stanley: you risk if you don’t have Tesla stock

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 08.04.2021 14:38
Morgan Stanley, a huge investment bank, has warned investors about a “risk” not having Tesla stock. It means that those people who don’t have Tesla shares will regret it as Musk’s company will continue increasing its value. Why is Morgan Stanley so sure about Tesla’s growth? The key reason is Biden’s infrastructure plan, which is positive for Tesla. The US President intends to fight climate change and make the USA carbon-free by 2050. He will spend $174 billion to develop the US electric-vehicle ecosystem, where Tesla is the top performer. “Auto investors face greater risk not owning Tesla shares in their portfolio than owning Tesla shares in their portfolio.” However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that Tesla’s way up won’t be easy and fast. Indeed, this year the carmaker is down about 5%, which is not so bad actually. It can be viewed as a great opportunity for investors to buy Tesla at a lower price. In comparison, Tesla rose 743% last year. So, there is a high chance Tesla will catch up. By the way, last week, Musk’s company has published better-than-expected car deliveries even despite the global chip shortage. Forecasts Morgan Stanley set a price target for Tesla at $880. According to Bloomberg, the average analysts’ target is $651, with 17 buy recommendations, 13 holds, and 12 sells. Technical analysis Tesla has formed the ascending triangle pattern. The ascending triangle pattern shows that bulls are getting stronger. As a result, its slope goes up. If the price manages to break the high of April 5 at $708.00, the way up further to the next round number of $750.00 will be open. In the opposite scenario, the move below the low of March 31 at $640.00 will drive Tesla down to the lower trend line at $600.00. You can trade stocks in the FBS Trader app or in MetaTrader 5!
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Navigating the Tidal Wave of Liquidity

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.04.2021 15:50
S&P 500 moved marginally higher in spite of its short-term very extended position, powered by liquidity and almost defying the odds. Credit markets were hinting at deterioration, the yen carry trade I talked a week ago has run into a brick wall as viewed by the USD/JPY exchange rate reversal – but stocks didn‘t listen, and their market breadth indicators are actually quite healthy.We‘re still in the rare constellation I discussed two days ago – Treasury yield moves are exerting no real pressure either on value stocks or technology including heavyweights, which are picking up the tech upswing slack. Microrotations still pointing higher are the name of the game, on the wave of infrastructure bill expectations as well.Still, the risk-reward ratio for the bulls is at unsavory levels in the very short run even as the longer time frame perspectives remain really bright. Consider these points made yesterday:(…) we have seen quite a record number (around 95%) of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, which is similar to the setup right after the post-dotcom bubble bear market 2002/3 lows, or 1-2 years after the bull market run off the Mar 2009 lows. Hard to say which one is more hated, but I see the run from Mar 2020 generational low as the gold medal winner, especially given the denial accompanying it since.Gold kept its run above $1,740 intact and regardless of the daily weakness in the miners – should that one be repeated more consistently, it would become worrying for the bulls. Looking though again at the USD/JPY chart, I‘m increasingly optimistic that the currents working against the king of metals, have turned. That‘s because whenever yen, the currency perceived by the market place as a safe haven one, strengthens, gold tends to follow its cue – and that‘s where we are now. The precious metals run to the key $1,760s or even better above $1,775 is approaching, and has already sent my open gold position solidly into the black. The soft patch I cautioned against at the onset of yesterday‘s session, has materialized in the miners, and might be very well over by today‘s closing bell. Yes, I look for mining stocks to reverse yesterday‘s weakness even in the competition for money flows with the S&P 500 holding up gained ground.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 keeps hugging the upper border of Bollinger Bands, and the willingness to trade at these extended levels, has decreased as the volume shows. Long-term investors correctly perceive higher highs as coming, short-term ones view the entry point as unfavorable.Credit MarketsBond markets wavered yesterday – both corporate and Treasury ones. Yet, note the turn higher in both high yield corporate bonds and investment grade ones, defying TLT – this bodes well for the stock market upswing health.Focus on Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) reversed its Tuesday‘s retreat, and $NYFANG (lower black line) powered upwards while value stocks (upper black line) or Dow Jones Industrial Average didn‘t yield an inch. The advance is broad-based but tech heavyweights might take a moment in overcoming their mid-Mar highs.Inflation ExpectationsThe Treasury inflation protected securities to long-dated Treasuries (TIP:TLT) ratio appears ready to move upwards, and the rising yields are clearly doubting its recent dip.Gold in the SpotlightGold miners compared to gold, don‘t paint a daily picture of strength. Jumping to conclusions on account of the hanging man formation in gold, would be premature though.Zooming out, the weekly gold chart with overlaid copper to 10-year Treasury yield, paints a picture of (bullish) turnaround and decoupling. Gold has been clearly attempting to move higher lately, and that will reflect upon the precious metals complex positively as it undergoes its own rotations lifting gold, silver or miners at different stages and magnitudes.SummaryS&P 500 is likely to keep consolidating gained ground, and (shallow) bear raids wouldn‘t be unexpected here – in spite of the strong market breadth. We‘re witnessing VIX trading well below 20 for four sessions in a row while the put/call ratio has risen to the approximate midpoint of its usual range – the bull market is intact, and a breather wouldn‘t be surprising here.Miners moving higher again is the first step to power gold upwards sustainably again, but the shifting currency winds would help here as strengthening yen would facilitate beating the next major set of resistances above $1,760s.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

U.S. Labor Market Is Recovering. Will Gold Too?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.04.2021 16:55
The March nonfarm payrolls were surprisingly strong. If the current favorable trend in the U.S. labor market continues, gold may struggle.As the chart below shows, in March 2021, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 916,000 , following gains of 468,000 in February (after an upward revision). The latest gains were the largest since August 2020. It’s important to note here that job growth was widespread, although led by gains in leisure, hospitality, education, and construction.Furthermore, the U.S. economy added significantly more jobs than expected . Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecasted 675,000 additions, but it turned out that employment in January and February combined was 156,000 higher than previously reported. Also on the positive side, the unemployment rate declined from 6.2 to 6 percent , as the chart below shows. As the unemployment rate is much below its high from April 2020, it’s clear that the U.S. labor market is recovering from the pandemic recession .However, significant slack remains. First, the unemployment rate is still 2.5 percentage points higher compared to February 2020, before the pandemic started. Second, the broader unemployment rates, which paint a more accurate picture of unemployment, are even further from their pre-pandemic levels. For instance, the broadest U-6 rate was 10.7 percent in March, i.e., 3.7 percentage points above the level seen in early 2020. Third, the labor-participation rate is 1.8 percentage points lower than its pre-pandemic level, which means that many people simply dropped out from the labor market instead of searching for a job.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for the yellow metal? Well, gold’s reaction to a generally good employment situation report was positive . As the chart below shows, the London price of the shiny metal increased from $1,726 on April 1 to $1,745 on April 6, 2021, when the fixing resumed after the holidays.The explanation for gold’s positive reaction might lie in the fact that although the employment report was positive, it won’t be enough to alter the Fed’s monetary policy . As a reminder, the U.S. central bank wants to see “substantial further progress” towards labor market repair before tapering the asset purchases and raising the interest rates . Of course, further such reports with almost one million job gains would force the Fed to admit that the situation improved substantially.However, the Fed would like to see a continuation of the current trend for a while before it will alter its stance. Indeed, as Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans recently said, “those conditions will not be met for a while (…) Policy is likely on hold for some time.”And it won’t be easy to sustain the current favorable trend in the labor market. This is because the large share of the unemployed are long-term unemployed, roughly 43 percent, and there is a risk that these people will get discouraged and drop out from the labor market. It’s easier to put short-term unemployed than long-term unemployed into work again.Regardless, gold’s reaction amid the surprisingly strong nonfarm payrolls report and the accompanying rise in the bond yields could be seen as encouraging . Some analysts even believe that the yellow metal has bottomed out.However, given that the U.S. outpaces its major peers in the pace of economic recovery, it might be too early to call the return of the gold bulls . So, the medium-term downside risks remain present in the gold market. Although the single report won’t cause an immediate shift in the Fed’s stance, if this trend continues, the market expectations of the Fed’s tapering and hikes in the federal funds rate could move up, exerting downward pressure on gold prices.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stocks: Q1'2021 earnings reports coming!

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 09.04.2021 15:21
What will move the market on April 12-16? The third full week of April is expected to be relatively quiet on Forex - with a few exceptions. Primarily, it will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that announces its Cash Rate on Wednesday – that may create shifts in NZD/USD and other pairs with NZD. Also, Australian labor authorities will announce the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate – some upbeat data may push AUD. Other than that, no major events are planned for the Forex week. In the meantime, the stock market is opening the earnings reports season – that’s the prime time for stock market movers. The US corporate landscape may be experiencing turbulence through the middle of the next month. Therefore, fasten your seatbelts, and prepare to see your stocks moving in MT5 and FBS Trader. Trade ideas JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs These major banks will release their earnings on Wednesday before the US market open. Both brought strong financial performance results in the previous quarter, and the market is not expecting any less than that this time. Both stocks are now slightly below the recently made all-time highs and will likely beat them if the outlook is optimistic. Bank of America and Citigroup Another couple of the largest US banks, these two are notably different in their stock price performance. While BAC has been pretty bullish lately – probably, the most bullish among all the banks – and its stock has been busy making a new all-time high, Citigroup has not yet reached the pre-virus levels. That’s why the release of the earnings report may be crucial for Citi to possibly form a stronger uptrend. That is, if investors are satisfied with the results on Thursday. PepsiCo PepsiCo releases its earnings report on Thursday, too. Its stock price performance has been notably turbulent, with a clear resistance in the area of $145-147: this was the pre-virus all-time high that was challenged only once since the virus kicked in. In December, the stock price moved up and even inched above it but then plunged to $130 – another key level that has been supporting the stock price all along since May. Currently, Pepsico stock is very close to the resistance area again. Therefore, a strong earnings report may finally push it through to new all-time highs. General Electric Friday will bring us the report of General Electric. This stock’s performance has been quite peculiar: it was going flat until the very end of 2020 where it suddenly took off to currently trade slightly above the pre-virus high that corresponds to an important level of 2018. Beating that level and moving into the upside may start a whole new strategic uptrend for General Electric which has done a lot to restructure its financial layout and make investors happy. You can trade stocks in the FBS Trader app or in MetaTrader 5!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Stocks are Heating Up

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.04.2021 15:40
In keeping with its historical performance, April has started off white-hot. We ended March, and Q1 for that matter, with more questions than answers.But April 2021 started with a blowout jobs report, and the indices haven't looked back since. Right now, the S&P 500 is at yet another record, the Dow is just about at a record, and we've seen a furious comeback for Big Tech and growth stocks.The sentiment is certainly better now than it was just a couple of weeks ago. However, I implore you to remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback/volatility occur in the second half of the month.Think about it. In January, we had the GameStop trade spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won't just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would've been over yesterday.But, as I mentioned before, April historically is a strong month for stocks. According to Ryan Detrick , chief market strategist at LPL Financial, "Other than my Cincinnati Bengals breaking my heart, few things are more consistent than stocks higher in April."During April, the S&P 500 has gained in 14 of the past 15 years. April has also been the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years.The market concerns, though, are still intact. We still have to worry about inflation, bond yields, and stocks peaking. According to Binky Chadha , Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, we could see a significant pullback between 6% and 10% over the next three months.Another thing I'm a bit concerned about is the $2 trillion infrastructure plan. While this is great for America's crumbling infrastructure, do we really need to spend any more trillions?Plus, how do you think this will be paid for? Hiking taxes- namely corporate taxes . Those gains that high growth stocks saw after Trump cut corporate taxes in 2017 could very well go away. While President Biden has indicated a willingness to negotiate his 28% corporate tax proposal, it's still a tax hike.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:We're hot right now.However, we could see more volatility and more muted gains than what we've come to know over the last year.April is historically strong, but please continue to monitor inflation, yields, and potential tax hikes. Be optimistic but realistic. A decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely. Yet, we could eventually see a minor pullback by the summer, as Deutsche Bank said.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Russell 2000- Still Buyable?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)I proudly switched my call on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) to a BUY on March 24. I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn during the second half of February and swore I wouldn’t make that mistake again.We’re up to over 5% since then.The climate right now supports the Russell 2000. The current economic policy is tailor-made for small-caps. The best part, though? The Russell is still very buyable.The RSI is still hovering around 50. I also checked out the chart and noticed that almost every time the IWM touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.Fast forward to now. The Russell 2000, despite its gains since tanking on March 23, remains right at about its 50-day moving average.Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.According to the chart, we may have found double-bottom support too.Based on the chart and macro-level tailwinds, I feel that you can still BUY this index. In fact, it may be the most buyable of them all.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

The Curious Staircase Rally in Stocks

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.04.2021 15:58
Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially close it. With some credit market hints at deterioration present, the yen carry trade is getting a new lease on life today, and that‘s generally bullish for risk-on assets such as stocks – but not really for precious metals.With all the Fed support, the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.The key question is the rotation‘s degree – now that the yields appear ready to retreat still a little more (the 10-year yield appears targeting the low 1.50% figure if not declining further), which is what technology anticipates even though utilities and consumer staples have been dragging their feet a little lately. But value stocks aren‘t selling off in the least (yet?). Is the TINA still strongly in effect when those stock market segments that could have been expected under more stringent monetary policy to be sold, aren‘t no more? Rising tide lifting really all boats – in stocks.Gold has retreated from yesterday‘s almost $1,760 highs accompanied by continued miners‘ outperformance. That‘s likely on account of the yen getting under pressure today, even though gold defended the Mar 08 bottom in spite of $USDJPY peaking in the closing days of Mar. The yellow metal is still sensitively reacting to the nominal yield moves, which are serving as a tailwind – both in the short run and when you zoom out and add copper into the picture (final chart of yesterday‘s analysis).One of the key things that I am still waiting for before declaring the gold bottom to be absolutely in, is its run above the key $1,760s or even better above $1,775 level. Let‘s though first watch for the miners not running out of steam.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 keeps hugging the upper border of Bollinger Bands, yet the willingness to trade at these extended levels has slightly returned yesterday. Hard to time any bear raid in these circumstances really.Credit MarketsVery tight correlation indeed as the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio keeps tracking the stock market moves. Not even the HYG volume picked up yesterday, making it impossible to call for a turnaround as investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) keep rising in sympathy with TLT.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) sprang to new highs on TLT erasing its Wednesday‘s losses while value again kept gained ground. Broad-based advance not pointing to much downside really unless $NYFANG turns in earnest.Gold and SilverGold turned strongly higher on the retreat in rising nominal yields (even as inflation expectations ticked lower yesterday) and the yen tailwind, but the volume behind the rally off the second imperfect bottom, is quite weak overall (concerning).Silver joined in yesterday‘s party, and both copper and platinum moved higher as well. Seeing the white metal not spiking yesterday is actually a positive sign of the precious metals upswing health, daily woes notwithstanding.Crude OilPrecious few directional signals in oil, yet higher prices are still favored by the oil index ($XOI). This consolidation is still relatively young, and not even a crash to roughly $52.50 would break the uptrend.SummaryS&P 500 keeps consolidating in a vulnerable and stretched position, yet offers no signs of an immediate retracement of a portion of prior gains. The current setup is unfavorable for short-term oriented (bullish leaning) traders who prefer higher signal clarity to the tight correlation we‘ve seen this week.After yesterday‘s fireworks, miners hold the key in today‘s session as the $1,760s are still a tough nut to crack – the precious metals‘ upswing health will be tested.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Will Upcoming Inflation Take Gold With It?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.04.2021 16:25
Inflation is coming. Gold may benefit from it, especially if inflation turns out to be more long-lasting than central bankers and markets believe.Brace yourselves, inflation is coming ! Importantly, not only grumblers such as myself are talking about rising prices right now, but even the Fed officials themselves admitted that inflation will jump this year. Indeed, in the latest dot plot , the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects that the PCE annual percent change will soar from 1.3 percent in December 2020 to 2.4 percent at the end of this year. Importantly, their projections increased significantly in the last three months when they amounted to 1.8 percent.And remember, we are talking here about the official inflation figures. The real inflationary pressure, which also affects asset prices, is much stronger. Furthermore, the pandemic changed the composition of consumption, as people are buying more goods and less services. And guess what, the prices of goods are rising more than the prices of services, so many people’s actual consumption baskets have become more expensive than official ones, implying that true inflation is higher than the officially reported one, as the IMF has recently admitted .Does this mean that the FOMC members have all suddenly become monetary hawks worried about higher inflation? Not at all. The Fed believes that inflation will be temporary, caused by the base effects (very low inflation readings in the second quarter of 2020) and by the reopening of the economy that will trigger higher consumer spending and some increases in prices.The U.S. central bank might be right. After all, there will be some temporary forces at play. There always are, but – oh, what a funny thing! – the Fed always cites “transient effects on inflation” when it’s increasing, but not when it’s declining. The problem is, however, that the markets don’t believe the U.S. central bank . Please take a look at the chart below, which displays inflation expectations over the next five and ten upcoming years.As you can see, both medium-term and long-term inflation expectations have significantly increased in the last few months. It means that investors don’t only expect a temporary rise in inflation – on the contrary, they forecast a more persistent increases in prices . Indeed, Mr. Market believes that inflation will be, on average, 2.5 percent in the next 5 years and almost 2.3 percent in the next 10 years, significantly above the Fed’s target of 2 percent.Of course, it might be the case that Mr. Market is wrong, and Mr. Powell is right. But what is disturbing is the Fed’s confidence – or, rather overconfidence – that it can contain inflation if it turns out to be something more than only a temporary phenomenon. Such a conceit led to stagflation in the 1970s. Gold shined at that time.Then, as today, the central bank focused more on the maximum employment than inflation, believing that it can always control the latter by raising the federal funds rate if necessary. But, as Robert J. Barro, from Harvard University, points out , “the problem is that hiking short-term rates will have little impact on inflation once high long-term expected inflation has taken root.”And the recent Fed’s actions, including the new monetary framework, according to which the U.S. central bank tries to overshoot its target for some time, may easily waste the reputational capital that was created by Paul Volcker and de-anchor inflation expectations.In other words, a negative shock can be accommodated by the central bank without long-lasting effects, as people understand that it’s a unique one-off event, after which everything will return to normalcy. But the Fed is far from normalizing its monetary policy . On the contrary, it has recently signaled that it wouldn’t raise interest rates preemptively to prevent inflation, as it could hamper the economic recovery. The risk here is that if people start to view exceptional as the new normal, their inflation expectations could shift, and become unanchored.To sum up, it might be the case that markets are overstating short-term inflation risks. But it’s also possible that politicians and central bankers understate the longer-term inflationary dangers , as Kenneth Rogoff, also from Harvard University, argues . After all, unlike in the aftermath of the Great Recession , when only the monetary base skyrocketed, the pace of growth of the broad money supply also soared this time – and it’s still increasing, as the chart below shows.In other words, while all the created liquidity after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 flowed mainly into the financial markets, during the pandemic , it flowed into the real economy to a much larger extent, which can create more inflationary pressure.What’s more, the easy monetary policy is now accompanied by a very loose fiscal policy and the unprecedentedly large fiscal deficits , which could push the economy deeper into the debt trap . This could undermine the central-bank independence and prevent a timely normalization of interest rates , not to mention the weakening of globalization’s downside impact on inflation, caused partially by demographic factors and reshuffling in supply chains. Last but not least, the rising commodity prices and international transport costs, accompanied by the weakening U.S. dollar, may be harbingers of an approaching inflation monster.What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the jump in inflation in 2021 should be positive for the yellow metal , which could gain as an inflation hedge . The downward pressure on the real interest rates should also be supportive for gold prices, although the rally in the bond yields may counteract this effect. But if Powell is right and inflation turns out to be only temporary, then gold may be hard hit, and we could see a goldilocks economy again (i.e., fast economic growth with low inflation). However, if markets are right, or if the long-term inflationary risks materialize, which even investors may understate, gold should shine.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – Last Chance To Rebound

John Benjamin John Benjamin 12.04.2021 09:58
GBPUSD meets critical supportThe pound falls back as traders take profit after a strong performance from the start of the year.The price action has retreated to March’s low at 1.3670, a support on the daily chart to keep the uptrend intact. The pair is likely to consolidate from that major level while the RSI recovers from the sub-30 area.1.3770 is the immediate resistance and a bullish breakout may convince buyers that the correction is over.To the downside, 1.3600 would be the target if the pair struggles to find bids.USDCAD struggles to bounce higherA fall in Canada’s unemployment rate from 8.2 % to 7.5 % in March helped lift the loonie against its US counterpart.The pair has met strong selling pressure around the supply area (1.2640) found on the daily chart.An overbought RSI has prompted short-term traders to take profit. However, the price’s subsequent failure to make a higher high signals weakness in the past week’s rally.A drop below 1.2535 could trigger a broader sell-off in the continuation of the downtrend with 1.2470 as the next target.EURAUD pierces through multiple resistancesThe Aussie was spoiled by the government’s restrictions on the AstraZeneca vaccine which would delay its vaccination campaign.After bouncing off a three-year low (1.5260) the euro has been building up its momentum. The latest surge above the key resistance at 1.5600 suggests that buyers are gaining confidence and aiming for 1.5690.An overbought RSI might temper the optimism and 1.5530 is first support in case of a pullback. As long as the price is above the base of the recent rally (1.5430), the bias will remain bullish. 
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.04.2021 15:13
S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep defying gravity. But the corporate credit markets are sending a gentle warning sign as they failed to move higher in unison on Friday. Given the Fed support and liquidity injections talked on Friday:(…) the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.The spanner in the works proved to be long-dated Treasuries as these gave up all intraday gains, and closed in a non-bullish fashion. The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50% figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday – and so did industrials and technology, all without tech heavyweights‘ help. Utilities and consumer staples went mostly sideways, disregarding the danger of yields about to rise again.The rotation simply isn‘t much there, and the TINA trade isn‘t letting much air to come out of the S&P 500 sectors that would be expected to sell off in a more relaxed monetary policy. Treasury holders keep demanding higher rates, disregarding the soft patch in inflation expectations since mid-Mar. And they‘re right in doing so, for the PPI missed badly on Friday – the development I had been anticipating since mid-Feb.Inflation in the pipeline is one of the reasons behind gold‘s resilience – and its continued rebound off the imperfect double bottom test.While the yellow metal‘s candlestick on Friday mirrors the USD/JPY one, the miners erased opening losses in a bullish show of outperformance. Given the continued consolidation in commodities keeping a partial lid on silver, that‘s bullish – gold appears sensing the upcoming pressure on the Fed to act once yields reach levels high enough to cause havoc across the markets, starting with stocks, just as I described on Mar 29.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsS&P 500 keeps pushing higher, into the upper border of Bollinger Bands that are now widening. Taking into account prior week‘s Easter-shortened trading, the weekly volume behind the upswing just in, is considerably lower than before – and that‘s not bullish.Market breadth indicators aren‘t arrayed in an overly bullish way. Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have been lately unconvincing, but at least new highs new lows turned up. They‘re still below the early April peak, revealing that not as many stocks are pushing to make new highs.Credit MarketsVery tight correlation between the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio and the stock market ended on Friday, and it remains to be seen whether that was a one day occurence only. Investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) gave up half of intraday gains as long-dated Treasuries declined – the downward pressure appears returning into the debt markets.Technology and FinancialsTech (XLK ETF) turned from the sector most heavily extended to the south of its 50-day moving average, to the north of it. And given the hesitation a ka reversal in TLT reflecting upon $NYFANG, the sector‘s steep gains are likely to meet a headwind soon – and value stocks appear to be anticipating that with an upswing of their own, reflected in the financials (black line).Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations as measured by the TIP:TLT ratio are basing, but bond yields refuse to budge, clearly agreeing that there is higher inflation coming. Gold and SilverGold miners are keeping the sector above water, and the daily gold downswing becomes much less credible as a result.Silver and copper daily downswings are in line with the gold one – there is no indication of a pocket of underperformance in commodities or elsewhere about to spill over and exert pressure on the precious metals sector.SummaryS&P 500 upswing is leaving the index in a vulnerable position, and especially the tech‘s reversal is leaving it in a perched place where no sector is however being really sold off. The current setup is still unfavorable for short-term oriented (bullish leaning) traders who prefer higher signal clarity to the tight correlation we‘ve seen this week, even more so given the corporate credit markets non-confirmation.Miners did their job on Friday, and the precious metals upswing hasn‘t lost its spark in spite of both metals closing down. The $1,760s are still a tough nut to crack, but I look for these levels to be challenge in the near future.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Gold Miners: Corrections are Normal

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.04.2021 16:41
Keep your eye on the ball. Just because the GDX ETF went up last week doesn’t mean that it’s in an uptrend. Corrections are part of the game.Just as the USD Index recently (last week) suffered a countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend, so has the GDX ETF experienced a corrective upswing within a medium-term downtrend.Nothing moves in a straight line, so recent developments in both the gold miners and the USD Index are nothing to worry about. Everyone is still on track. Gold and the miners are headed for a medium-term downtrend and the USD Index is still gathering steam and will be leaving the station.With the gold miners attempting to dig themselves out of their 2021 hole, the labor of love could end as quickly as it began. With a temporary retreat of the USD Index last week and dormant U.S. Treasury yields doing much of the heavy lifting, the GDX ETF had plenty of help breaking down its wall of worry.However, with April showers likely to derail further construction activity, off-site momentum may not be as kind. Case in point: the GDX ETF is still trading below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, and while the senior miners’ bounce above their March high may seem like a ground-breaking event, the synthetic strength is likely to hammer the miners over the medium term. Why so? Well, like a current running on extremely low voltage, Friday’s (Apr. 9) intraday bounce occurred on relatively low volume – with the positive momentum evaporating into the close.Please see below:As further evidence, the March/April corrective upswing took the form of a zigzag pattern, which is indicative of a countertrend move within a medium-term downtrend. In addition, if you analyze the chart above, notice how fits and starts were part of the senior miners’ price action back in January? In both cases, the GDX ETF moved above the declining blue resistance line and the 50-day moving average. Yet … the GDX ETF is lower now than it was then.Furthermore, back in January, the GDX ETF initially ignored gold’s daily (Jan. 6) weakness. Thus, Friday’s (Apr. 9) outperformance by the GDX ETF is far from an all-clear. In fact, it could be the final creak before the foundation crumbles.Some might say that mining stocks are showing strength compared to gold as the GDX to gold ratio broke above its declining resistance line.However, I don’t think it’s fair to say so. I think that seeing a breakout in the GDX to gold ratio is not enough for one to say that the miners to gold ratio is breaking higher.After all, the GDX ETF is just one proxy for mining stocks, and if miners were really showing strength here, one should also see it in the case of other proxies for the mining stocks when compared to gold.For instance, the HUI Index to gold ratio, the XAU Index to gold ratio, and the GDXJ ( junior mining stocks ) to gold ratio.There is no breakout in the HUI to gold ratio whatsoever. In fact, the ratio is quite far from its declining resistance line. Even if we chose other late-2020 tops to draw this line, there would still be no breakout.There is no breakout in the XAU to gold ratio either. The previous attempts for the XAU to gold ratio to rally above their 2020 high marked great shorting opportunities, which is very far from being a bullish implication.But the most bearish implication comes from gold’s ratio with another ETF – the GDXJ.The breakout in the GDXJ to gold ratio is only tiny and unconfirmed. These moves always (since Oct. 2020) provided sell signals – the small breakout below the declining resistance line were always invalidated and they were then followed by visible short-term declines.Five out of five previous attempts to break above the declining resistance line failed and were followed by short-term declines. Is this time really different?It seems to me that the five out of five efficiency in the GDXJ to gold ratio is more important than a single breakout in the GDX to gold ratio, especially considering that the latter was preceded by a similar breakout in mid-March. That breakout failed and was followed by declines.Taking all four proxies into account, it seems that the implications are rather neutral to bearish. Especially when taking into account another major ratio - the one between HUI and S&P 500 is after a major, confirmed breakdown.When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.Playing out as I expected, a sharp move lower was followed by a corrective upswing back to the now confirmed breakdown level (which is now resistance). Mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018, after breaking below its rising support line, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete, the current move lower still has plenty of room to run. Likewise, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme, the greenback could spoil the miners’ party once again.In addition, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.Also supporting the potential move, the GDX ETF’s head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes in the first chart above – signals further weakness ahead.I wrote previously:The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Turning to the junior gold miners , the GDXJ ETF will likely be the worst performer during the upcoming swoon. Why so? Well, due to its strong correlation with the S&P 500, a swift correction of U.S. equities will likely sink the juniors in the process. Besides, junior miners have been underperforming recently even without general stock market’s help.Furthermore, erratic signals from the MACD indicator epitomizes the GDXJ ETF’s heightened volatility. Remember though that the MACD indicator is far from a light switch. While false buy signals often precede material drawdowns, the reversals don’t occur overnight. As a result, it’s perfectly normal for the GDXJ ETF to trade sideways or slightly higher for a few days before moving lower.Please see below:And unlike its senior counterpart, the GDXJ ETF cemented its relative underperformance by moving lower on Friday.So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Some people (especially the permabulls that have been bullish on gold for all of 2021, suffering significant losses – directly and in missed opportunities) will say that the final bottom is already in. And this might very well be the case, but it seems highly unlikely. On a side note, please keep in mind that I’m neither a permabull nor a permabear for the precious metals sector, nor have I ever been. Let me emphasize that I’m currently bearish (for the time being), but about a month ago, we went long mining stocks on March 4 and exited this profitable trade on March 11.As another reliable indicator (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that elicit a major reversal. The Index is now back at 40. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 30 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.Thus, with sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing had caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.But has it already run its course?Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.In conclusion, akin to Humpty Dumpty, “all the King's horses and all the King's men” are unlikely to put the GDX ETF back together again. With the HUI Index to gold ratio, the XAU Index to gold ratio and the GDXJ ETF to gold ratio all splintering beneath the surface, the GDX ETF’s recent strength simply masks all of the cracks in the precious metals’ foundation. Furthermore, with the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields threatening to swing the wrecking ball, the metals’ house of cards could soon face demolition. Thus, even though the long-term outlook for gold, silver , and mining stocks is very bullish, the short- and perhaps medium-term outlooks remain profoundly bearish, and investors that ignore the warning signs will likely find themselves submerged in the rubble.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – Testing Daily Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.04.2021 08:29
USDCHF retreats to major supportThe US dollar is treading water as traders await inflation data which would dictate the next movement.The greenback has fallen back to test the medium-term support (0.9210) from the daily chart after a three-month-long rally.An RSI divergence right above the key level is a sign that the correction has lost its momentum. Though a bullish breakout above 0.9280 will be needed to confirm a reversal.To the downside, a drop below the said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9140.XAUUSD looks for supportGold is striving to consolidate its latest gains after a fall in US yields last week. After having established a solid support base at 1677, the price has rallied back to March’s high at 1757.A bullish breakout could lead to a sharp recovery as a result of triggering stop-losses and momentum buying.But for now, an overbought RSI has prompted profit-taking within the supply area. 1730 is the first line of defense as the metal pulls back to rebuild support.A deeper correction may lead to test 1710.US 30 rises along the trendlineThe Dow Jones flies high after Chairman Jerome Powell expressed his optimism in an interview that the US economy was set for a strong rebound.Following a breakout above its latest consolidation range (33250), the index has been grinding up along a rising trendline.The psychological level of 33400 would be the next target for the bulls. Though an overshot RSI may lead to a temporary pullback.The 30-hour moving average is the immediate support. Further down, 33510 along the trendline may see more buying interests.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.04.2021 15:46
S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost touching 16 to close the week, VIX peeked higher yesterday only to reverse back down. Nice try but if you look at the put/call ratio turning down simulatenously, the alarm bells are far from ringing.The S&P 500 rise of late isn‘t without its good share of non-confirmations though. The ones seen in Russell 2000 and emerging markets got a fresh company in the corporate credit markets. No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.If you look at the put/call ratio again, its lows throughout Mar and Apr haven‘t been reaching the really exuberant levels of prior months, hinting at a less steep path of S&P 500 gains. And what about the volume print as stocks went about making new highs? Not encouraging either, and it‘s not that rising yields would be causing trouble:(…) The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50% figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday.And financials had a good day yesterday too. Technology welcomed the reprieve, and the heavyweights joined in increasingly more. Again though, more than a little stretched, these $NYFANG generals are rising while the troops (broader tech) are hesitating, which makes a down day / consolidation quite likely, especially should the TLT retreat again. As I wrote yesterday:(…) The rotation simply isn‘t much there, and the TINA trade isn‘t letting much air to come out of the S&P 500 sectors that would be expected to sell off in a more relaxed monetary policy. And that‘s probably what gold is sensing as it grew weak yesterday. The rising yields aren‘t yet at levels causing issue for the S&P 500, but the commodities‘ consolidation coupled with nominal yields about to rise, has been sending gold down yesterday – and miners confirmed that weakness by leading lower. This would likely be a daily occurence only unless and until copper gives in and slides – that‘s because of the inflation expectations having stabilized for now, but Treasury yields not really retreating. Yes, gold misses inflation uptick that would bring real rates down a little again – and is getting one in today‘s CPI as we speak.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 is no longer trading above the upper border of Bollinger Bands, but volume isn‘t picking yet up either. That makes a largely sideways consolidation the more likely scenario here.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and the investment grade ones (LQD ETF) declined yesterday while long-dated Treasuries went nowhere – but the bullish spirits in stocks didn‘t evaporate proportionately. This non-confirmation isn‘t too pressing at the moment.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) stumbled yesterday, and it wasn‘t because of $NYFANG (black line) – yet value stocks didn‘t sell off either during these lately turning vapid rotations.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsThe long underperformance in both indices vs. the S&P 500 goes on, and is actually a stronger watchout than the corporate credit markets at the moment. Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations as measured by the TIP:TLT ratio are basing, but bond yields are aiming higher again, making higher inflation on the horizon a virtual certainty.Gold, Silver and MinersThe daily underperformance in miners is worrying – this daily leadership to the downside, where gold and silver declined proportionately to each other. Given that commodities didn‘t point to greater weakness, I consider yesterday‘s precious metals downswing as a bit exaggerated. SummaryS&P 500 still appears as entering a consolidation, but I‘m not looking for way too much downside. The Big Tech names would decide, and if you look at Tesla doing well yesterday, the S&P 500 correction would play out rather in time than in price.Gold depends upon the miners‘ path, and nominal yields trajectory. Once more inflation spills over into CPI readings, that would work to negate temporary weakness caused by real rates pressures, which is what we are getting.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Many Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally - Are You?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 13.04.2021 21:42
As we start moving into the Q1:2021 earnings season, we need to be aware of the risks associated with the volatility often associated with earnings data and unknowns.  Nonetheless, there are other factors that appear to be present in current trends which suggest earnings may prompt a moderately strong upside breakout rally – again.One key factor is that the US markets are already starting to price in forwarding expectations related to a reflation economy – a post-COVID acceleration in activity, consumer participation, and manufacturing.  Secondarily, we must also consider the continued stimulus efforts, easy monetary policy from the US Fed, and the continued trending related to the 12+ month long COVID-19 recovery rally. In some ways, any damage to the economy related to COVID-19 may have already happened well over 6+ months ago.  Certainly, there are other issues we are still dealing with and recovering from, but the strength of the US economy since May/June of 2020 has been incredible.  When we combine the strength of the economic recovery with the extended support provided by the US Fed and US government stimulus/policy efforts, we are left with only one conclusion:  the markets will likely continue to rally until something stops this trend.Just this week, after stronger inflation data posted last week, and as earnings data starts to hit the wires, we are seeing some early signs that the US major indexes are likely to continue to trend higher – even while faced with odd earnings data.  If this continues, we may see the US major indexes, and various ETF sectors, continue to rally throughout most of April – if not longer.Come watch over 60 investment and trading LEGENDS share their secrets with you for free – click here for your FREE REGISTRATION!Today, Aphria (APHA), announced a third-quarter “miss” on sales, and net operating loss fell more than 14%.  This tugged many Cannabis-related stocks lower and pulled the Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) lower by over 4%.  Still, the Transportation Index, Financial sector ETF (XLF), and S&P500 SPDR ETF (SPY) rallied to new all-time highs.This suggests the market is discounting certain sector components as “struggling” within a broadly appreciating market trend.  In this environment, even those symbols which perform poorly won't disrupt the Bullish strength of the general markets.  Because of this, we believe the overall trend bias, which is Bullish, will continue to push most of the market higher over the next few days/weeks... at least until something happens to break this trend or when investors suddenly shift away from this trend.SPY Rally May Be Far From Over At This StageLet's start by reviewing this SPY Daily chart below (S&P500 SPDR ETF).  As you can see, the recent rally has already moved above the GREEN 100% Fibonacci Measured Move target level near $410.  Any continued rally from this level would suggest an upside price extension beyond the 100% Fibonacci Measured Move level is initiating.  This type of trending does happen and can often prompt a higher target level (possibly 200% or higher) above our initial targets.What is interesting in our review of these charts is the SPY may be rallying above recent price range targets, using the Fibonacci Measured Move technique, but other sectors appear to really have quite a bit of room to run.Transportation Index Continues To Suggest Stronger US RecoveryThis Transportation Index Daily Chart, TRAN, suggests a target level near $15,627 so it is reasonable to assume the Transportation Index may continue to rally more than 4% higher from current levels.  Ideally, if this were to happen, it would suggest the broader economic recovery is strengthening and we may expect to see the US major indexes continue to rally higher as well.At this time, when economic data and Q1:2021 earnings are streaming into the news wires, we usually expect some extended volatility in the markets.  The VIX may rally back above 19 to 24 over time if the markets reflect the varied earnings outcomes we expect.  Yet, we believe the overall bias of the markets at this stage of the trend is solidly Bullish.Financial Sector ETF Ready To Rally Above $37The Financial sector ETF (XLF), as seen in the following chart, is poised to break higher after a dramatic recovery in price after December 2020.  The rally from $29 to over $35 represents a solid +20% advance and the recent resistance level, near $35.30, is a key level to watch as this sector continues to trend.  Once that resistance level is breached, we believe a continued rally attempt will target $37, then $39.40.The expected recovery in the US economy will prompt more consumer spending and the use of credit.  Over the past 8+ months, US consumers have worked to bring down their credit levels and saved more money because of the change in how we addressed COVID work-styles and lack of travel (and extra money from the Stimulus payments).  That may not change right away, but eventually, consumers will start to engage in the economy as travel starts to recover and summer activities start to take place.  This suggests spending, travel, vacationing, eating out and other activities will prompt a new wave of economic activity within the Financial Sector.The US markets are uniquely poised to further upside price gains because the US has such a dynamic core economy.  Our base of consumers is, generally, working in jobs, saving more, and more capable of traveling within the US to engage in summer activities.  Because of this, we believe the continued recovery of the US economy will prompt another wave of higher prices throughout the Q1:2021 earnings season.  We believe a number of solid earnings and expectations will support the market and future expectations will support a continued moderate price rally in certain sectors.The strongest sectors are going to continue to be the best performers over time.  Being able to identify and trade these sectors is key to being able to efficiently target profits.  You can learn more about the BAN strategy and how to identify and trade better sector setups by registering for our FREE webinar here.  We've built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Happy Trading!
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

New Day, New ATHs with Gold in the Wings

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.04.2021 16:07
S&P 500 went up yet again yesterday, and the corporate credit markets‘ non-confirmation quite resolved itself. While the same can‘t be said about smallcaps or emerging markets in the least, S&P 500 doesn‘t care, and keeps up the staircase rally without real corrections to speak of.Not even intraday ones, unless you count the sharp and brief premarket one yesterday before the CPI figures came out. That‘s the result of the sea of liquidity in practice, and the avalanche of stimuli. The 1.50% yield scare on 10-year Treasuries is long forgotten, and technology welcomes every stabilization, every retreat from even quite higher levels, and value stocks barely budge. No real rotation to speak of and see here, move along.Such were my recent observations:(…) No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.Talking gold prospects early yesterday:(…) And that‘s probably what gold is sensing as it grew weak yesterday. The rising yields aren‘t yet at levels causing issue for the S&P 500, but the commodities‘ consolidation coupled with nominal yields about to rise, has been sending gold down yesterday – and miners confirmed that weakness by leading lower. This would likely be a daily occurence only unless and until copper gives in and slides – that‘s because of the inflation expectations having stabilized for now, but Treasury yields not really retreating. Yes, gold misses inflation uptick that would bring real rates down a little again – and is getting one in today‘s CPI as we speak.CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.The stalwart performance in the miners goes on after a daily pause as gold gathers strength and silver outperformed yesterday. Silver miners and gold juniors are pulling ahead reliably as well, not just gold seniors.The run on $1,760 awaits.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 is no longer trading above the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price action remains bullish, and volume is ever so slowly picking up (sending weak early signs thereof), but the bulls better watch out for a catalyst forcing a down day once in a while again.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and the investment grade ones (LQD ETF) turned around yesterday, and so did long-dated Treasuries – and that supports the bullish spirits in stocks. It was indeed right to view the prior non-confirmation as not too pressing at the moment.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) rose strongly yesterday, and so did the kingmaker $NYFANG (lower black line) and Tesla that I called out yesterday. But value stocks didn‘t sell off – a powerful testament to the TINA trades driving no real rotations to speak of as nothing gets really sold off just on its own.Gold and MinersGold isn‘t in a decline mode anymore, and appears picking up strength so as to take on the $1,760s. Volume is returning, and the current reprieve in rising yields is welcome.Miners returned to the limelight, and it‘s my view they would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly, as the tide in the metals has turned. Time and desirably a catalyst of such move, is all that is needed. Geopolitics (to the short-term rescue) or more unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates, that‘s I am looking for next.Silver and MinersSee the gold and silver miners trading in lockstep, remember gold juniors as well, and you get this bullish picture where the whole precious metals sector is slowly coming back to the limelight. In case of silver, the return in volume is boding well for the days ahead – all without the classic signs of bearish isolated silver outperformance. SummaryS&P 500 and the still elusive consolidation – the Fed speakers won‘t likely trigger one today, but bulls, watch out for some daily downside with little to no warning in your plans, after all.Gold and miners‘ paths are aligned, and nominal yields trajectory is boding well for the days ahead when patience is still needed before the nearest resistances in both assets are taken out with conviction.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Does Gold Want to Move Lower?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.04.2021 16:26
Gold’s slight rally might be getting some people excited, but appearances can be deceiving. USDX action hints at gold really wanting to move lower.The yellow metal has climbed, but only with lacklustre energy. If the USD Index is not rising, then gold should really be shooting up and breaking new monthly highs, but it isn’t. Readers have been asking what’s happening and some have been concerned with gold’s apparent strength. So, let’s break it down.History tends to rhyme and what happened before, will – to some degree - happen again. Gold is not immune to this concept, and the current implications are bearish.Let’s jump right into the charts for details.Gold topped right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal, just like it did in mid-March and in early January (please note the points that are marked on the above chart for confirmation – they are described in red). That happened on Thursday (Apr. 8), and since that time gold has continued to move lower.Gold invalidated the breakout above its mid-March highs, proving that what we saw was nothing more than just an ABC (zigzag) correction within a bigger downswing. The moves that follow such corrections are likely to be similar to the moves that precede it. In this case, the move that preceded the correction was the 2021 decline of over $150. This means that another $150+ decline could have just begun.It might appear bullish that gold rallied yesterday (Apr. 13), but it only appears this way until one compares this rally with what happened in the USD Index during the same time. Paying attention to today’s (Apr. 14) pre-market price moves further emphasizes the fake nature of yesterday’s rally in gold.The point is not that gold rallied, but that it hasn’t rallied enough.During yesterday’s session, the USD Index moved to new monthly lows and this decline continued in today’s pre-market trading. Consequently, if gold was at least reacting to the USD’s movement “normally”, it should move to new monthly highs. If gold “wanted” to rally, it would have likely exploded to the upside. But what happened instead? Gold moved higher only somewhat yesterday – not to new monthly highs – and in today’s pre-market trading it’s actually slightly lower.This tells us that gold “wants” to move lower now.The USD Index moved lower, and it can move even lower on a very short-term basis, perhaps to the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2021 rally, and the previous lows. And what would be the likely effect on gold? Based on what we saw yesterday, and what we see so far today, it seems that gold will likely ignore this decline in the USD Index, while waiting for the latter to finally show strength – so that it (gold) could decline.After all, gold has already topped right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point . Consequently, it’s no wonder that it now continues to trade sideways, waiting for a trigger to move much lower.Moreover, please note that the recent zigzag makes the situation similar (approximately symmetrical) to what we saw about a year ago – between April and early June. Once gold breaks to new yearly lows, one could view this as a breakdown below the neckline of a major head and shoulders pattern where the April 2020 – June 2020 and the recent consolidations are the shoulders of the pattern. Based on such a pattern, gold would be likely to slide profoundly, probably well below $1,500. And the relative performance of gold vs. the USD Index tells us that such a short-term breakdown (to new yearly lows) is a likely outcome in the following weeks.Gold stocks also failed to rally to new monthly highs, and they seem to be forming a relatively broad topping pattern, just as they did in mid-March and at the beginning of the year.The sell signal from the Stochastic indicator as well as the fact that miners failed to invalidate the breakdown below their broad head-and-shoulders pattern points to a bearish outlook for the following weeks (and perhaps months).All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish and the recent rally didn’t change anything.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

US Equities Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.04.2021 18:26
Low volume rallies have become a standard of trending recently.  We see higher volume when volatility kicks in near areas of broad market volatility.  Otherwise, we see lower volume trending push the prices higher recently in a “melt-up” type of mode.Two recent standout events confirm this type of trending and volatility phases of the markets: (1) the September 2020 to early November 2020 (pre-US Election) rotation in price; and (2) the recent February 2021 to late March 2021 sideways price rotation related to the FOMC meeting/comments.  Both of these events centered around external market components and prompted an extended period of price volatility related to uncertainty.  After these events passed, price fell back into a low volume rally mode for many months, where most of the actual price gains happened.The following Daily QQQ chart highlights my observations related to this type of price activity.  We start in the pre-COVID-19 price rally from October 2019 to the peak near mid-February 2020.  It is easy to see the decreased volume activity while prices climbed more than 27%.  Then, the COVID-19 even sent volatility skyrocketing higher and prices collapsed by 30%.  This type of “Wall Of Worry” trending is common and presents a very clear opportunity for traders.After the March 2020 bottom, prices began another low volume rally that lasted from April 2020 to August 2020 – totaling a substantial +45% gain.  Again, starting in mid November 2020 and ending in mid February 2021, the QQQ rallied over 15% in a low volume “melt-up” trend.Come watch over 60 investment and trading LEGENDS share their secrets with you for free – click here for your FREE TICKET!Currently, the volume has started to subside after the FOMC meeting/comments volatility and we are starting to see moderately strong upward price trending in the QQQ.  This suggests we have entered another “Wall Of Worry” trend which may continue for many weeks or months.The following Weekly XLY, SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF chart highlights how diverse this “Wall of Worry” trend really is.  It translates into other sectors with almost the same velocity as it does in the QQQ.  In this example, we can see the strong trending, highlighted by GREEN ARROWS, at the same time as the decreasing volume took place.  Each of these rally trends coincides with the QQQ trends.  The rally from April 2020 to August 2020 represented a +35% gain.  The rally from November 2020 to February 2021 represented a +21% gain.  The current rally attempt has already advanced over 17% higher and may continue to rally for many more weeks.If there is no future disruption of this low volume trending, then we may expect to see the US stock market continue to move in this manner for many weeks or months to come.  These low-volume “Wall Of Worry” trends can be very profitable and can prompt big moves in sector ETFs.Many traders continue to miss opportunities in these markets because of worry or concerns of a breakdown in the trend. Eventually, something will prompt a correction or breakdown of this rally trend.  But until that happens, traders need to be able to identify and profit from these strong low volume rallies as they present some of the lowest volatility price advances recently. Being able to identify and trade these sectors is key to being able to efficiently target profits.  You can learn more about the BAN strategy and how to identify and trade better sector setups by registering for my FREE Trading Course here. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Enjoy the rest of the week!
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Intraday Market Analysis – Bullish Turnaround

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.04.2021 09:07
NZDUSD recovers above daily MAThe New Zealand dollar gained support after the RBNZ kept its monetary policy unchanged.The Kiwi has found an effective floor above the psychological level of 0.7000 after a week-long sideways action.A breakout above the consolidation range (0.7070) has triggered a runaway rally as the short side scrambles to cover.On the daily chart, the surge above the 30-day moving average suggests that the recovery could extend further if 0.7180 is lifted. 0.7045 is the immediate support in case of a pullback.USDJPY falls to medium-term supportThe prospect of the Fed to maintain the low rate course continues to drive the US dollar lower.On the daily chart, the pair has come under pressure at the psychological level of 111.00 while the RSI made a double top in the overbought area. The sell-off is heading towards the first major support at 108.40.On an hourly chart, the RSI’s triple dip into the oversold territory could lead to a temporary rebound. 109.60 is the hurdle on the upside where intraday traders may look to sell into strength.NAS 100 breaks into new highGrowth stocks are making a comeback as receding Treasury yields make risk assets attractive again. A bullish close above February’s high at 13908 suggests that buyers have returned.The NASDAQ index may resume its uptrend as market sentiment improves.After hitting the milestone at 14000 the market may take a moment to digest the new record high while the RSI falls back into the neutrality area.The demand zone between the previous lows at 13670 and 13800 may be of trend followers’ interest.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stocks, Gold and Commodities Meet the Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.04.2021 15:56
S&P 500 in the red – unprecedented. Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, this time stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.As stated yesterday:(…) That‘s the result of the sea of liquidity in practice, and the avalanche of stimuli. The 1.50% yield scare on 10-year Treasuries is long forgotten, and technology welcomes every stabilization, every retreat from even quite higher levels, and value stocks barely budge. No real rotation to speak of and see here, move along.CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.And the Fed mightily confirmed the message yesterday, which is what commodities loved. Inflation has a free reign, all it has to do is to take advantage of it. And if I look at rising oil filtering into higher gasoline and food prices, the real inflation will keep on biting (even though black gold is excluded from CPI calculations).I don‘t expect these recent observations to change much, especially since we got the daily breather yesterday – but 3, let alone 2 red candles in a row? I haven‘t seen that in stocks for quite a while:(…) No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one [on Tuesday].Precious metals didn‘t swing higher immediately, but I expect them to take the commodities‘ cue next. When Powell says the Fed isn‘t thinking about selling bonds back into the market, and that he learned a lesson (hello, late 2018), real rates aren‘t probably rising much any time soon. It appears to me a question of time before inflation expectations squeeze the nominal yields some more, which is what gold would love.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookDaily downswing on marginally higher volume that doesn‘t shift the perspective towards a corrective territory in the least. The correct question instead is probably whether the S&P 500 upswing reasserts itself the next day or the day after.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and the investment grade ones (LQD ETF) reversed to the downside yesterday, and long-dated Treasuries didn‘t have a good day either. The reversals are though not to be trusted as I look for the upswing in both to continue.Technology and ValueTech (XLK ETF) driven by $NYFANG (lower black line) and then also Tesla (TSLA), were the key underperformers yesterday. Value stocks kept moving higher, and higher SPX prices are more likely next in this no real rotations to speak of environment, courtesy of all the extra liquidity.Inflation ExpectationsYields are not rising, but aren‘t yet retreating either. Have the rising inflation expectations been banished? I‘m not convinced even though they aren‘t running hotter in the wake of PPI and CPI figures, which are bound to get worse next – if copper and oil are to be trusted (they are). Remember that this is the Fed‘s stated mission for now – to let inflation run to make up for prior periods of its lesser prominence. Gold in the LimelightNominal yields are gradually taking the pressure off the yellow metal as the miners keep outperforming gold. Seniors (GDX ETF) would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly (solidly above $35 on rising volume and bullish candle shape), as the tide in the metals has turned. The unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates would do the trick.Silver, Copper and OilWhile silver recovered intraday losses, both copper and oil surged on the Fed reaffirmations. The table is set for miners and both precious metals to move higher next. outperformance.SummaryWhat a fast S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The bulls have yet again reversed the setback in today‘s premarket session, and the slow grind higher keeps going on.Gold and miners are likely to take a cue from the surging commodities, and grow emboldened by the nominal yields retreat. Patience is still needed before the nearest resistances in both assets are taken out with conviction.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Inflation Soared in March. Will Gold Jump Too?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.04.2021 17:42
Inflation accelerated its pace in March, which should support gold when economic confidence softens.The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose 0.6% in March , following a 0.4% increase in February. It was the biggest monthly jump since August 2012. The move was larger than most analysts expected. However, I’m not surprised at all, as after February’s CPI report, I wrote that inflation “may rise further in the coming months”.The acceleration in the inflation rate was driven mainly by a 9.1% spike in the gasoline prices over the past year (in March 2020, the price of oil plunged). But the core CPI monthly rate, that excludes energy and food prices, also accelerated to 0.3% in March, from 0.1% in February.So, inflation has finally reared its ugly head, which is even more clearly seen on an annual basis. The overall CPI soared 2.6% over the last 12 months ending in March, following a 1.7% increase in the preceding month. Meanwhile, the core CPI jumped 1.6%, following a 1.3% rise in February. Hence, as the chart below shows, inflation has not only increased significantly since the bottom in May 2020, but it has also substantially surpassed the Fed’s target.What’s important is that the recent jump in inflation is not a one-off event. We can expect that high inflation will stay with us for some time, or it can accelerate further next month, given the fact that oil prices plunged deeply in April 2020 (some oil futures even fell into negative territory!). So, the next CPI reading will have to factor in a quadrupling of oil prices over the year.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for the price of gold? Well, higher inflation should support gold , which is perceived as an inflation hedge . Furthermore, higher inflation should decrease or at least soften the rise in the real interest rates , further supporting the price of the yellow metal.As the chart below shows, gold’s immediate response was positive, yet rather limited, with the price of the yellow metal increasing to almost $1,748 on Tuesday (Apr.13). After all, the increase in inflation was widely expected given the base effects and the latest Fed’s economic projections. So, no big surprises here.However, I believe that inflation hasn’t said its last word yet . It could be just the beginning. You see, the current mainstream view is that inflation is no longer a problem in the contemporary economy, and that the 1970s-like stagflation will never happen again. Furthermore, the Fed believes that it would be able to contain inflation if it turns out to be really problematic. As Powell said in his recent interview ,The economy has changed. And what we saw in the last couple of cycles is that inflation never really moved up as unemployment went down. We had 3.5% unemployment, which is a 50-year low for much of the last two years before the pandemic. And inflation didn’t really react much. That means that we can afford to wait to see actual inflation appear before we raise interest rates.The Fed Chair is right. The economy has changed. But the economic laws haven’t. So, the combination of the recent surge in the broad money supply , the supply disruptions, demographic shifts, base effects, and the realization of the pent-up demand, may still lead to inflation. And remember that the Fed’s new monetary regime is more tolerant to upward price pressure, which increases the odds of inflation getting out of control.In other words, I believe that the risk of stagflation is underestimated. With increasing vaccination, unlocking the economy, and expectations of a vigorous recovery, economic confidence is high. So, investors should focus more on economic growth than on inflation. However, I bet that when this post-pandemic euphoria wanes, there will be a deterioration in economic confidence, caused either by more persistent and higher inflation than expected, or higher bond yields , or problems with the private and public debts . When this happens, gold should rally again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – Bullish Extension

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.04.2021 08:40
AUDUSD gains momentum as rally extendsMarkets bid up the Australian dollar after the country’s unemployment rate dropped from 5.8% to 5.6% in March.A brief pullback overnight near the 30-hour moving average (0.7700) was met with strong buying interest. The RSI’s easing from the overbought zone suggests that there could be more room on the upside.The latest rally above 0.7750 may attract more momentum players into the bidding war. This might open the path to 0.7850, a key resistance on the daily chart.USDNOK tests lower band of consolidation rangeSurging oil prices have put the commodity-sensitive Norwegian krone on the launchpad against a soft US dollar.Successive breakouts below 0.8470 then 0.8390 were a strong sign that the bias remains bearish.The US dollar may carry on its downtrend following a three-month-long consolidation between 8.3200 and 8.7200. There is a chance of a temporary rebound as the RSI rises back from the oversold area.8.3200 would be the next target while 8.4500 is the immediate resistance in case of a retracement.UK 100 lifts January’s resistanceThe FTSE 100 climbs higher as value stocks gain momentum amid the UK’s reopening.The bullish close above January’s high at 6963 indicates that the bulls are still in charge of the price action despite recent profit-takings.The next round of rally could set the pre-pandemic level above 7400 as the target in the weeks to come.In the short term, the index will need to lift the psychological level of 7000. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback, and 6920 would be the closest support in that case.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Plan, Scan, Execute

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.04.2021 14:31
Plan:First, you need to set a goal like: “I want to become a consistently profitable trader.”Secondly, you want each day to look at the market from a top-down perspective (large time frames first). Then plan your game plan for the next day (see our daily call).Thirdly, be precise in what you will be scanning for the next day (i.e., sideways days fade highs and buy double bottoms, directional days: fade in the direction of the trend and don’t counter-trend trade).Also, select times for execution (every day the same time segment).Scan:On the day of a possible execution, one is now fortified with a clear set of rules on what to look for and primarily on what not to do. This allows for participation with reduced risk to get sucked into market action on smaller time frames. Instead, you shouldidentify pre-planned patternsdetermine sensible low risk entry pointsand verify whether your daily call is still in play or if your prior day assessment is proven wrong (which would disqualify this day as an execution day).Execute:Once entry criteria are verified (price patterns, indicator readings, price levels, and so forth), your job is to evaluate if the math fits the trade.First, mark your stop based on a support resistance level. Secondly, identify the next reasonable resistance zone for your trade, and if the distance towards your stop is smaller in size of the distance towards your first target (r/r ratio=1:1.5, see our Quad exit strategy ), you’re in business. Identify your following two targets as well. If the trade fits preset criteria, you are obligated to execute the trade.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The plan:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 15th, 2021.Larger timeframe plays work much alike since your process sheet approach is principle-based and expandable to the larger picture. We looked for a wealth preservation vehicle and found in Silver what fits the bill due to overwhelming fundamental data.The monthly chart above shows a projection chart where we see prices heading. One can see how Silver prices were declining from 2011 highs till 2015. Then the Silver market traded sideways until March last year. From that point on, we quickly advanced in just five-month to US$30. We find evidence that prices should go higher from here.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, The scan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.The look at the weekly chart is confirming a possible play. The yellow trend-lines indicate direction. We are trading near the lows of this support channel and near the mean (red line). Silver extending to three standard deviations from a volatility model is within the norm. As such, our projection allows for a substantial expansion of price from here (see red vertical line). With four levels of support (green horizontal lines), we are confident that lower supply zones (two-volume transaction nodes at US$25.24 and US$24.36, the mean at US$23.39 and the round figure US$23) are holding up price. A third test of the US$30 resistance zone could break through that supply zone, promising higher price levels.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, The execution:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.With an entry near US$25.50, the long-term investor could engage into the market with a stop set at US$22.87 and a financing target near US$29.83. (see our Quad exit strategy). This would provide for a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.64. The next target being US$47.46, allows for ample profits to let the runner take its course for much higher price levels (triple-digit) until we get substantial counter signals to exit the final part of the position.Plan, Scan, Execute:Scrutinize all parts of this three-step instruction setup. People have set goals like becoming a millionaire and lost half their profits on the day they hit the seven-figure number. A subconscious part set in that they would be not worthy of such a sum. We mean to say the devil is in the details. Clearly, we are not trying to simplify trading here and make it sound easy. We see many traders make mistakes since they do not have a detailed, clear instruction plan that they follow religiously. Such a process sheet reduced to its mere bone structure is essential.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 15th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Earnings Season’s Hot Start

Earnings Season’s Hot Start

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.04.2021 15:42
“Other than my Cincinnati Bengals breaking my heart, few things are more consistent than stocks higher in April.”As a stock nerd and NFL fan, I love this quote from Ryan Detrick , the chief market strategist at LPL Financial.Historically in April, the S&P 500 has seen gains in 14 of the past 15 years. April has also been the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years.April 2021 has been no exception. Although March, and Q1, for that matter, ended with more questions than answers, this month has been nothing but white-hot.The month kicked off with a blowout jobs report. It then continued with two consecutive weeks of jobless claims crushing estimates, retail sales coming in almost ⅓ higher than projected, and bank earnings blowing past forecasts. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 seemingly hit fresh record-highs every other day, and despite complications with JnJ’s one-dose vaccine, all signs point towards our life returning to normal by this summer.While optimism is high right now, I implore you to remain cautious. I’m really not sure how much higher the Dow and S&P can go without pulling back somewhat. Not to mention, it still has not been smooth sailing for Cathie Wood stocks or SPACs for the last two months either. This rotation into recovery names is very real.Remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback and volatility occur by the second half of the month.We are now officially in the latter half of April. Although, as I said, April is historically a strong performing month, think about this. By the second half of January, we had Reddit trades spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won’t just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would’ve been over yesterday.According to Binky Chadha , Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist, we could see a significant pullback between 6% and 10% over the next three months because of potentially full valuations and inflation fears. Even if this $2 trillion infrastructure plan doesn’t pass in full, do we really need to spend any more trillions with an economy starting to turn red hot?Plus, how do you think this will be paid for? Hiking taxes- namely corporate taxes . Those gains that high growth stocks saw after Trump cut corporate taxes in 2017 could very well go away. While President Biden has indicated a willingness to negotiate his 28% corporate tax proposal, it’s still a tax hike.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:We’re hot right now.However, we could see more volatility and more muted gains than what we’ve come to know over the last year.April is historically strong, but please monitor overvaluation, inflation, bond yields, and potential tax hikes. Be optimistic but realistic. A decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely. Yet, we could eventually see a minor pullback by the summer, as Deutsche Bank said.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. The Dow Jones- How Much Higher Could We Go?Figure 1- Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDUThe Dow Jones remains red hot in 2021. Strong bank earnings, a recovering economy, and the potential for further infrastructure spending have sent the index to record highs in what seems to be every other day. Unfortunately, we are nowhere close to buyable any longer and are firmly overbought with an RSI over 72.For the longest time, I’ve said to HOLD the Dow and let the gains ride. Now, I think it’s an excellent time to trim and take profits. Many analysts believe the index could end the year at 35,000 or higher, and the wheels are still in motion for that to happen. The problem, though? We’re above 34,000, and we’re only in mid-April.You could do a heck of a lot better for a buyable entry point.Having Dow exposure is valuable. The index has many strong recovery cyclical plays that should benefit from what appears to be an economic recovery and reopening going even better than expected. The Dow could also be quite beneficial as a hedge against volatile growth stocks and SPACs. You won’t see bond yields spooking this index as much.But at this level, it’s probably better to SELL and consider trimming profits.For an ETF that aims to correlate with the Dow’s performance, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a great option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.04.2021 16:09
The S&P 500 red candle and then some – erased in a day, that‘s what you get with the Fed always having your back. The staircase climb certainly looks like continuing without any real breather. Whatever steep ascent you compare it to (Jun or early Sep 2020), this one is different in that it doesn‘t offer but token corrections. Not that it would be reasonable to expect a steep downswing given the tide of liquidity, but even sideways trading has become rarer than it used to be.With the VIX still below 17 and the put/call ratio in the middle of its slowly but surely less complacent range, the path of least resistance is higher – the signs are still aligned behind the upswing to go on: (…) Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, [on Wednesday] stocks listened to the weakening corporate credit markets, and the daily retreat in long-dated Treasuries inspired some profit taking in tech. Quite some run there as yields stabilized, which has turned XLK from very stretched to the downside of its 50-day moving average, to the upside extreme. Tesla also followed suit but I doubt this is a true reversal of tech fortunes.Just at yesterday‘s moves – technology surged higher without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. Even financials ignored the sharp retreat in yields. Yes, that‘s the result of retails sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.Gold loved the TLT upswing and Powell‘s assurances about not selling bonds back into the market in rememberance of eating a humble pie after the Dec 2018 hissy fit in the stock market (isn‘t this the third mandate actually, the cynics might ask). I called for the sharp gains across the precious metals board sending my open position(s) even more into the black – both on Wednesday:(…) CPI inflation is hitting in the moment, and its pressure would get worse in the coming readings. Yet the market isn‘t alarmed now as evidenced by the inflation expectations not running hot – the Fed quite successfully sold the transitory story, it seems. Unless you look at lumber, steel or similar, of course. None of the commodities have really corrected, and the copper performance bodes well for the precious metals too.and Thursday:(…) Precious metals didn‘t swing higher immediately, but I expect them to take the commodities‘ cue next. When Powell says the Fed isn‘t thinking about selling bonds back into the market, and that he learned a lesson (hello, late 2018), real rates aren‘t probably rising much any time soon. It appears to me a question of time before inflation expectations squeeze the nominal yields some more, which is what gold would love.The stalwart performance in the miners goes on after a daily pause as gold gathers strength and silver outperformed yesterday. Silver miners and gold juniors are pulling ahead reliably as well, not just gold seniors.The run on $1,760 awaits.This is just the beginning, and as I had been repeatedly stating on Twitter:(…) The GDX closing convincingly above $35 would usher in great gold and silver moves.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookNew ATHs, again and this time on rising volume – the momentum still remains with the bulls even though the daily indicators are waning in strength, and as said earlier, $NYFANG causes a few short-term wrinkles.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio performance got better aligned with the S&P 500 one, now that nominal yields have retreated.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsReflecting the turn in the Treasury markets, both the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF) clearly turned higher, confirming the direction the S&P 500 has been on practically non-stop since late Mar.Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations are going down, that‘s the conventional wisdom – and nominal yields duly follow. But the RINF ETF isn‘t buying the TIPS message all that much, proving my yesterday‘s point:(...) Have the rising inflation expectations been banished? I‘m not convinced even though they aren‘t running hotter in the wake of PPI and CPI figures, which are bound to get worse next – if copper and oil are to be trusted (they are). Remember that this is the Fed‘s stated mission for now – to let inflation run to make up for prior periods of its lesser prominence. Gold in the LimelightGold is surging higher ahead of the nominal yields retreat, as the bond vigilantes failed yet again to show up. In the meantime, the inflationary pressures keep building up...Gold, Silver and MinersAs stated the day before, seniors (GDX ETF) would lead gold by breaking above their recent highs convincingly (solidly above $35 on rising volume and bullish candle shape), as the tide in the metals has turned. The unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates would do the trick, which is exactly what happened. Silver scored strong gains as well, yet didn‘t visibly outperform the rest of the crowd. I look for the much awaited precious metals upleg to go on, and considerably increase open profits.SummaryThe daily S&P 500 downswing is history, and the relentless push higher (best to be compared with a rising tide), goes on.Gold and miners took a cue from the surging commodities, and nominal yields retreat. Patience has been rewarded, and a close above $1,775, is what I am looking for next as the gold bottom is in.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Will Rates Rally Further, Pushing Gold Down?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.04.2021 16:54
The recent rally in the bond yields pushed gold prices down, but this trend won’t continue forever, as the Fed will likely be forced to step in.In March, we saw a continuation of the rally in bond yields that started in February. As the chart below shows, the 10-year real interest rates have soared from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.66 percent on March 23.What is clear from the chart is the strong correlation between the 10-year TIPS yields and the gold prices. As a consequence, the rising bond yields made gold struggle. However, in March, the real interest rates were much more choppy compared to February, when they surged decisively. It may signal a lack of fuel for the further rally, at least for a while.Now, what is important here is that despite the recent jump in the real yields, they remain extremely low from the historical point of view . And they remain well below zero! This is good news for the gold market, as the yellow metal shines the most when real interest rates are negative.Of course, the direction of change is also very important, not just the absolute level. So, the question is, will the rates increase further? Well, it’s unfortunately possible, as the improving economic outlook and risk appetite are encouraging investors to buy stocks rather than bonds.On the other hand, the rising inflation expectations suggest that real yields may struggle to increase further , or they actually may go down. As the chart below shows, the market expectations of inflation in the next 10 years, derived from the Treasuries, have risen from 0.50 at the bottom in March 2020 to 2.31 on March 24, 2021.Given the increase that has already taken place, the further rise may be limited. But the broad money supply is still rising at an accelerating pace, and investors still don’t believe that the Fed will not hike the federal funds rate to combat rising inflation. They don’t buy the new monetary framework and all the talking about letting inflation overshoot the Fed’s target. Of course, the promise to be irresponsible in the future is not very credible, but investors shouldn’t underestimate the recklessness of central bankers .You see, we live in an era of weak policymakers unable to make serious commitments, or take unpopular actions, contrary to the needs of Wall Street and the government. For example, Janet Yellen , as a Treasury Secretary, should stress fiscal discipline – instead, she praised the “go big” approach of the new administration. Congress has already passed the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the next additional spending is coming . The legislative proposal of new government expenditures on infrastructure and other priorities (such as climate change and the labor market) could collectively cost more than $3 trillion.It’s true that the additional government spending and the necessary borrowing could push up the yields (this is an important downward risk for gold). But rising interest rates could hamper the economic recovery and make government financing more costly, further ballooning already mammoth fiscal deficits . So, the Fed will likely have to step in and expand its quantitative easing program or introduce other measures, such as the yield curve control, to curb the long-term interest rates. It will weaken the dollar, thus supporting gold prices.As a reminder, the Bank of Japan has started to target the yield on 10-year government bonds at around zero percent in 2016, as it decided that the rapid monetary base expansion via large-scale asset purchases was unsustainable. More recently, the European Central Bank has announced in March the acceleration in the pace of its QE in a response to the rally in bond yields.So, do you really think that the Fed won’t follow suit? That Powell will not help Yellen, his former boss from the Fed? The sharp increase in yields would be inconsistent with the Fed’s dovish policy and the overall debt-driven economic growth. Hence, if the interest rates increase too much, be sure that the Fed will do something, providing a long-awaited support for the price of gold.What is “too much”? Not so much, at least not in the debt-trap we live in. Some analysts believe that this could occur if nominal 10-year Treasury yields rise over 2 percent, not too far from the current levels, as one can see in the chart below.Should we be surprised, given the bond bubble created by the central banks? They have kept the bond yields artificially depressed for years, so even a modest normalization – perfectly justified by the expectations of economic recovery and rising inflation – could collapse the house of cards and cause a financial crisis . Hence, although markets have become more optimistic recently, I’m afraid that bears and black swans haven’t said the last word yet. And neither has gold.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
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Gold: You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.04.2021 16:54
Gold had a good day yesterday, but as it hits the $1,770 resistance line, it will be anything but easy for the yellow metal. The real test has begun.And so, it happened. Gold moved right to its target level that seemed to be the max that it could reach, but that didn’t seem to be the most likely outcome. Just because it wasn’t the most likely outcome, doesn’t make it impossible. The “most likely” can happen all the time – after all its only “most likely” not “certain” or “inevitable”.Gold declined right after its triangle-vertex-based reversal, but it appears that the market participants didn’t want to give up on the bullish tone until gold finally reached its previous lows and highs.Just like magnets, the strong support and resistance lines draw investors and traders, and it seems that we saw this play out once again.Gold moved slightly above its upper border of the near-perfect flag (zigzag) pattern and this small breakout is not completed. This particular breakout is not even close to being as important as the fact that the previous very strong resistance held yesterday (Apr. 15).Why? Because the level that was just reached – the $1,770 level – is the level that provided strong resistance in mid-2020 (several times) and it provided strong support in late-2020 and early 2021. These were mostly very important reversals, which make this price level particularly important.Moreover, the current move higher to this level is symmetrical to what we saw in mid-2020. Consequently, even though this week’s rally might seem like a game-changer, it very likely isn’t one.But miners moved higher, and they invalidated the breakdown below the neck level of the broad head-and-shoulders formation!…Did they, though?Mining Stocks: GDX and GDXJThe GDX ETF did indeed close yesterday above the dashed line that I used to mark the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. One might view this as an invalidation of the breakdown, and thus a bullish sign. This doesn’t add up with gold’s inability to move above its critical resistance at $1,770, and we see that miners moved only to the line that’s symmetrical to the line based on the recent bottoms.In yesterday’s intraday Alert , I wrote the following:Mining stocks are rallying too, but please note that they only reached their upper border of the zig-zag pattern. Back in early January, this was exactly where the rally had ended. The top formed on huge volume and based on the volume that we already see today, it’s almost certain that the volume for today’s session will be huge – just like what we saw at the January top.I realize that waiting for the next big slide is exhausting and discouraging, and it’s not easy to hold on to the current trading position. However, the outlook didn’t change, and the situation continues to fit the bearish narrative despite today’s intraday upswing. Consequently, exiting positions now seems not only pre-mature, but actually opposite to what appears to be a good trading move from my point of view. After all one wants to sell or short at the tops and tops can only form after rallies.The above remains up-to-date. Let’s get back to the reason why this invalidation of the breakdown in the GDX might not really mean the true, meaningful invalidation of the breakdown in miners in general. The reason is that other proxies for the mining stocks sector don’t confirm it.The GDXJ ETF is relatively far from the neck level (which I marked with a thick, black line). On a side note, the breakout that we saw recently (above the short-term declining resistance line) seems similar to the breakout that we saw in January – above the line that was important back then. Just as the January strength turned into declines, I expect to see the same thing this time.Let’s move to the two key indices for the mining stocks sector, the HUI and the XAU indices .In neither of them did we see the invalidation of the breakdown. Consequently, the GDX ETF is the odd one out in the entire pack, not to mention the lack of a breakout in gold. Therefore, it seems prudent not to give particular meaning to what happened in the GDX ETF alone.SilverAnd what about silver’s outlook ?Nothing really changed despite yesterday’s strength. Just as was the case in March 2020, silver is correcting after a visible decline. Back in March 2020, the correction ended between the 200-day (red) and 50-day (blue) moving averages. The same is happening right now. Silver’s 50-day moving average is currently at $26.15 and the white precious metal closed at $25.96.All in all, it seems that quite a lot happened yesterday, but nothing really changed as far as the outlook for gold is concerned.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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Are Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 19.04.2021 03:53
Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data.  Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin's new recent highs.All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets.  After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns.  Will the markets just continue to push higher and higher? Or are the market nearing some type of intermediate-term peak after rallying from November 2020? Only time will tell...The recent move in Gold and Silver prices suggests traders and investors are starting to act more aggressively to hedge against downside market risks.  My research team and I believe these upside trends may confirm an upside breakout trend in Precious Metals and Miners within 2 to 4+ weeks. You may find some of our earlier research articles related to metals, including our April 15th price targets for Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and our research from March 26th where we explore an impending miners breakout rally.Custom Metals Index Shows Breakout Starting – 433 Level Is ConfirmationLet's start by reviewing our Custom Metals Index Weekly chart, below.  The continued downward price slide from the early August 2020 peak has extended more than 8 months. Recent lows also align with the peak levels just before the COVID-19 market collapse (February 2020).  Our research suggests this level will act as a strong support level and may prompt a new bullish price leg in Precious Metals and Miners if we continue to see confirmation of this uptrend in the future. Confirmation for our research team would be a strong close above 433 on our Custom Metals Index chart – closing above the 2021 Yearly highs.We urge readers to pay close attention to the RED price channels on this Custom Metals Index chart.  These historic price channels may become very relevant in the near future.  A strong upside price breakout in precious metals may prompt a rally that extends aggressively higher – attempting to reenter this current price channel.  If this were to happen, Gold would have to rally above $2165 by July 2021.  This would certainly put Precious Metals into a new longer-term bullish price trend.Junior Gold Miners Need To Continue Higher To Confirm Breakout/Rally TrendThe following GDXJ chart highlights the base/bottom that has setup in Junior Gold Miners and also highlights the past failed breakout attempts following the CYAN downward sloping trend line.  If this current breakout attempt is valid, we will see a continued upward price trend that confirms the breach of this downward sloping trend line over the next 5 to 15+ days.  We expect this move to happen fairly quickly given how traders have shifted focus recently into hedging against downside price concerns.Miners and Junior Miners tend to lead Precious Metals prices in volatile price trends.  Junior Miners act as a leader for the Precious Metals sector as investors expect stronger Precious Metals prices to translate into stronger earnings for Junior Miners.  Therefore, when traders perceive Precious Metals prices are bottoming or starting a new uptrend, Junior Miners will likely lead the rally in metals because Junior Miners will directly benefit (bottom-line profits) if metals prices move higher. Ideally, we would like to see a strong close above $53~54 to confirm this upside breakout trend.  This past standout high/resistance level seems key for any continuation of any bullish breakout trends.14+ Months Into A New Depreciation Cycle – What Next?As the US stock market continues to push into new all-time highs almost every week and inflation concerns are starting to rise, while global central banks are still acting to support the global market recovery, it seems oddly similar to the 2001~2009 Depreciation Phase which prompted a rally in Gold from $262 to over $1900 (over 700%).  We wrote about this change in global cycle trends in our December 18, 2020 research entitled Metals & Miners Shifting Gears.The Monthly Gold chart below highlights our research into the broader Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the global markets.  Notice how Gold rallied during the last Depreciation phase (from 2001 to 2011) – even starting to rally higher just before the Depreciation phase started and continuing for nearly a year after it ended.  This happens because global traders/investors start shifting their focus into hedging against risk before the Depreciation Phase actually kicks into gear – just like what is happening right now; on the right edge of this chart.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!The price Appreciation Phase ended near the end of 2019 (just before the COVID-19 market collapse). Yet, the US stock market has continued to rally higher and higher over the past 24 months, well into the start of the Depreciation Phase cycle.  This is what we call an “Excess Phase Rally” - where prices continue to trend because of momentum and herd mentality from traders.  As we are seeing right now, certain sectors, technology, and the US major indexes are still pushing to new all-time highs.  This is partially because traders continue to pile into the momentum trades/trends – chasing those profits.Gold has started to react to the Depreciation cycle in a way that suggests the global markets may eventually transition into a bit of a sideways price trend or come under some type of renewed valuation concerns over the next 3 to 5+ years.  This type of general market concern, as well as the desire to hedge against risk, may prompt a continued rally in Gold to levels above $3000 - as shown on this chart. Staying ahead of these types of sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets.  As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher.  Learn how BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups. You can learn how to find and trade the hottest sectors right now in my FREE course. For those who believe in the power of relative strength, cycles and momentum then the BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you in determining what to buy, when to buy it, and how to take profits while minimizing downside risk. In Part II of this article, we'll highlight continued opportunities in various metals/mining stocks/ETF as well as continue to highlight our believe that Precious Metals and Miners are starting a broad market transition into the Depreciation Phase cycle.  Are you ready for it?  Are you ready for increased global stock market volatility and trends while Precious Metals may start a new 140% to 250% potential price rally?Have a great weekend!
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – Breaking All-Time Highs

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.04.2021 08:42
GER 30 resumes uptrendWith the fear of reflation now taking a backseat, improved risk sentiment is pushing equity markets into new highs.The DAX has built a floor around 15160 following the latest rectangle consolidation. Bullish candles above the previous high at 15360 could draw more momentum players into the game.The 20-hour moving average crossing the 30-hour one is the final confirmation that the uptrend is picking up speed again. 15270 is the demand zone if the index falls back in search of more bids.USDCHF falls below major supportThe greenback remains underwater as US yields retreat from recent highs. Selling pressure has increased after the pair broke below the critical support at 0.9220 on the daily chart.Recent rebounds have been opportunities for short-term trend followers to sell into strength.A neutral RSI may encourage more sellers to jump on board. 0.9140 is the next target on the way down.On the upside, the newly established supply area around 0.9240 could be a tough nut to crack.USOIL breaks above consolidation rangeWTI crude oil has rallied back after the US EIA reported falling inventories. After a four-week-long consolidation, the latest surge above 62.10 suggests that buyers may have retaken control of the price action.64.80 from last month’s sell-off is a key resistance to lift if the bulls expect to turn the sentiment around once for all.In the meantime, profit-takings driven by an overbought RSI may lead to a brief retracement.The psychological level of 61.00 would be the support to keep an eye on.
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Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.04.2021 16:44
A culminating point has been reached. With the USD Index being backed up by solid fundamentals, can gold hold the line?Have you ever noticed how often the language of war is used in finance and economics articles? A given company is on the defensive or the offensive, a stock is pushing forward, something else is rallying, positions are being taken… who will fire first? It’s the case of continuous push and pull factors that makes military strategies and concepts relevant to the subject of money.Now, when it comes to gold and the USD Index, it’s not the great battle of our time (in reference to today’s title), as Gandalf explained to Pippin in The Lord of the Rings, but it’s a battle, nonetheless. For the yellow metal, it could even be the deep breath before the plunge. We’ll soon find out.With an epic struggle for supremacy set to unfold in the coming weeks, battle lines have officially been drawn: with the USD Index hovering near its 50-day moving average and gold recapturing its 50-day MA, negatively correlated assets have officially collided. And, as the rules of engagement specify that to the victor go the spoils, which one is likely to wave the white flag?Well, with the USD Index built on a foundation of relative fundamentals and gold a beneficiary of shifting sentiment, the former remains locked and loaded and poised to neutralize the threat. Case in point: despite the USD Index’s recent recoil, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders actually increased their net-long positions last week .Please see below: Source: COTMoreover, let’s keep in mind that when net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest (based on the CoT data) became extremely high in 2014 and 2018, the USD Index recoded two of its sharpest rallies in history. How sharp? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Let’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, without paying attention to tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer).In short, rallies that began with extreme pessimism include:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114. Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.In addition, let’s keep in mind that the very bullish analogy to the 2018 rally remains intact. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that back in 2018, the USD Index rallied sharply and then corrected back to its previous highs. And in similar fashion, the current weakness is nearly identical. More importantly, though, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sitting just below the USD Index’s 50-day MA, the cavalry is already on the way.Please see below:The current correction is much bigger than what we saw in mid-April 2018, so it seems that what we see right now is more of an analogy to what we saw in June 2018. That was the first big correction after the breakout – above the 50-day moving average and the declining blue resistance line – that definitively ended the yearly decline.I marked the situation from 2018 that seems similar to what we see right now with a dashed, horizontal line. Back in 2018, the pullback ended when the USD Index moved to its first Fibonacci classic retracement level (the 38.2% one). In case of the current rally, I marked those retracements with red. The USD Index is already below the first two (taking today’s pre-market decline into account) and it seems to be on its way to reach the final – most classic – 61.8% retracement. This kind of retracement provides substantial short-term support and it’s something that’s likely to trigger a rebounding.This retracement is slightly above the 90.7 level, and at the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is trading at 91.14. This means that the USD Index can reach its very strong short-term support any day – or hour – now.The very important detail about the June 2018 decline (and bottom) is that while this was the moment after which the USD Index’s started to move higher at a slower pace, it was also the moment after which the precious metals market started to decline faster.At the beginning of the year, I wrote that the precious metals market was likely to decline and that the preceding rally was likely fake. That’s exactly what happened.Right now, I’m writing that the recent rally was also fake (a correction within a medium-term decline) and – even more importantly – it seems likely that the next downswing could take place at a higher pace than what we saw so far this year. And – just as was the case in 2018 – this upcoming (fast) decline is likely to lead to the final bottom in the precious metals sector.Of course, just because the bottom is likely to be formed in the following months, doesn’t mean that it’s in at this time or that it’s a good idea to ignore the bearish implications of the situation in the USD Index (as well as other indications pointing to lower gold prices).As further evidence, the USD Index’s 2020 decline has not invalidated its long-term breakout. And with the long-term implications taking precedence over the medium- and short-term ones, the USDX still has its guns pointed in the right direction.Adding reinforcements to its infantry, the USD Index also has another ally in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. After sitting out much of the rally in 2020, the former has been following in the latter’s footsteps since the New Year’s Day. And while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield’s frailty has been a negative over the last two weeks, the dynamic could be about to flip.Please see below:Trending in the opposite direction of the USD Index futures, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders have moved from net-long to net-short the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note . For context, bond prices move inversely of yields, so a lower U.S. 10-Year Treasury results in a higher U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. And after non-commercial (speculative) futures traders reduced their long positions by nearly 43,000 contracts and increased their short positions by more than 44,000 contracts, speculators went from being net-long nearly 84,600 contracts to net-short nearly 2,700 contracts.Please see below:As a result, if the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the USD Index engage in an all-out offensive, their military might could indicate the death knell for the precious metals. Case in point: if you analyze the table below, you can see that gold, silver and the mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar.The bottom line?Given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. And in the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates, and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, the generals have mapped out their strategies, soldiers have manned the perimeter, and the loser of the upcoming battle will likely end up losing the war. However, with the precious metals being outmanned and outgunned, the USD Index will likely plant its victory flag, while gold, silver and the mining stocks are forced to retreat and regroup. As a result, a major fallback is likely before the precious metals can resume their long-term uptrend. Due to the USD’s breakdown below the 50% retracement, they could decline in the very near term (while gold rallies a bit more – say to $1,800 or so), but don’t let that trick you into thinking that the next big move is going to the upside. In my view, that’s actually likely to be an important top that’s then going to be followed by an even more important decline in the precious metals and mining stocks. Then, after several weeks or months of declines, PMs can bottom and finally soar without huge declines on the horizon.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Reversal? Have No Fear!

Gold Reversal? Have No Fear!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.04.2021 15:38
S&P 500 closed in the the red, vindicating my bearish sentiment going into Monday‘s session. And as I have tweeted during the day, the sellling doesn‘t appear to be over. Friday‘s:(…) selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far.While VIX rose yesterday, it finished only a little above 17 – the tide in stocks hasn‘t turned to fear even temporarily in the least, and the current consolidation would still be one to be bought.That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields moved higher yesterday, and defensives including tech or Down Jones Industrial Average rightly felt the pressure more than value stocks.Gold got caught in the daily selling, but again the miners and commodities reveal how little has changed. Oil and copper keep doing very fine, and the precious metals upleg appears undergoing a daily correction only – one that doesn‘t change the larger trend, which is higher (and for the dollar by the way, it‘s pointing down – I‘m not placing much weight upon the USD link arguing that gold is acting weak to the weakening dollar, and thus has to fall). I look at the ratios, yields and other commodities for stronger clues.And the matter of fact is that inflation expectations have yet again turned higher, confirming my earlier calls about transitioning to a higher inflation environment made either recently or more than a month ago. Remember that the Fed wants inflation above all, and made so amply clear:(…) Now, it‘s up to gold and silver to catch up on what they missed since the early Aug 2020. Inflation is running hotter, and the Fed is tolerant of it, amply supplying liquidity. The gold bottom is in, and much brighter days ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookStocks are visibly in a vulnerable position as not enough new buyers have stepped in. The volume print attests to having to go some more on the downside before a local bottom emerges.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and investment grade ones (LQD ETF) weakened, and more so than the TLT did – that‘s what a risk-off environment looks like. Thus far, no change on the horizon – this overdue, little correction can keep going on.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsBoth smallcaps and emerging markets are revealing the concerted selling yesterday – unless these turn higher next, the S&P 500 has further to go to the downside still.Gold in the LimelightGold‘s daily reversal may look ominous, but really isn‘t – it‘s merely a temporary setback. The miners have held up relatively well, and I consider the yellow metal‘s selloff as a reaction to the retreat in nominal yields and first red day in the S&P 500 in quite a while. I‘m standing by the call of decoupling from nominal yields getting more pronounced, and by increasingly lower dollar values powering precious metals higher, especially in the second half of this year – the USD/JPY pair offers clearly clues for the king of metals even now.Look how stubborn the miners to gold ratio is – no, this precious metals upleg isn‘t ending here, no way, it‘s merely getting started, and the panicked bears doubling down this early from the imperfect second bottom, is telling you as much about the state of the market as the ongoing silver squeeze driving relentlessly PSLV stockpile higher, bypassing the SLV.Silver and CopperSilver retreated in tandem with gold but again the fierce copper (copper to 10-year Treasury yields ratio) reveals that this isn‘t a move to be trusted. The trend in precious metals remains higher.SummaryThe S&P 500 consolidation is here, and is a shallow one just as anticipated. The risk-off moves were evident across the board yesterday, and might very well not be over just yet (when looked at from a larger than daily perspective).Gold and miners are undergoing a shallow correction as well, but nothing more than that. Before too long, precious metals will shake off the setback, and revert to breaking above another resistance, the $1,800s. Since we broke above the two levels I discussed recently (the $1,760s and closing above $1,775 on solid internals), the lows can be comfortably declared as in across the precious metals board, and I look for miners to keep leading the upleg.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – Bullish Continuation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.04.2021 08:58
GBPUSD breaks to 4-week highThe pound rallied across the board after the UK’s unemployment rate fell from 5.1 % to 4.9 %.The pair has surged to a four-week high, breaking above the consolidation range on the daily chart in the process. This is a signal that the uptrend may have resumed.The previous high at 1.4200 could be the next on the list. But for now, profit-taking around the psychological level of 1.4000 may drive the price lower while the RSI returns to the neutrality area. The resistance-turn-support 1.3900 would be the area of interest.AUDUSD hovers under major resistanceThe Australian dollar struggles to keep the high ground following the RBA’s dovish meeting minutes overnight.The Aussie has come under pressure in the major supply area between 0.7800 and 0.7850. The RSI’s repeated indication of an overbought situation may keep the price action subdued. 0.7700 is the immediate support to test buyers’ commitment.On the upside, a breakout would see a pick up in the bullish momentum and open the door to last February’s high at 0.8000.NZDUSD tests critical daily resistanceThe New Zealand dollar grinds higher as the CPI improved from 1.4% to 1.5%. The kiwi’s rally has gained traction after offers around 0.7180 were lifted.0.7270, a key resistance from the daily chart is the next hurdle. A bullish breakout may help the pair resume its thirteen-month-long rally. In a similar fashion to its Australian counterpart, an overshort RSI could mean a brief consolidation in search of buying interest.0.7120 is the first line of defense in case of a retracement.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis – Whipsaw Catalyst

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.04.2021 08:20
USDCAD breaks out of rangeThe Canadian dollar surged after the BoC announced a reduction of its asset purchasing program.After a month-long consolidation, the loonie may have finally found momentum to break free. The sell-off below 1.2470 suggests strong selling interest and potential for bearish continuation. The price may retrace briefly after the RSI shot into the oversold zone.1.2650 is the immediate resistance and 1.2420 would be the next target. A combination of short-covering and fresh buying could send the price to 1.2360.EURGBP falls from key resistanceSterling rises higher as the UK’s core CPI accelerates to 1.1% YoY. The euro has met stiff selling pressure at 0.8720, a key resistance on the daily timeframe.Successive breakouts below 0.8670 then 0.8640 are a sign that sellers have taken control of the short-term direction.The RSI has recovered into the neutrality area, leaving the price vulnerable at the end of the current consolidation. The support-turned-resistance 0.8670 may cap a rebound.A drop below 0.8590 could trigger a new round of sell-off.XAUUSD grinds along rising trendlineBullion advances higher as the dollar index stays muted at a seven-week low. The price action has been in consolidation following a recent rally above 1757.A neutral RSI may suggest there is still room on the upside. 1814 from the daily chart is a major resistance, and its breach could trigger a reversal. On the downside, 1777 is the immediate support in case of a pullback.Further down, 1760 along the bullish trendline is a congestion area and may see strong buying interest from short-term trend-followers.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

USD/TRY: testing all-time highs

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 22.04.2021 10:05
Today, USD/TRY is peaking above 8.30 - that's the zone of the all-time highs! The first time the Turkish lira dropped that much value was in November 2020. Back then, a new Turkish Central Bank governor was appointed to put it back onto a healthy course - and Naci Aqbal managed to do it countering double-digit inflation. Eventually, USD/TRY dropped below 7.00. However, unfortunately for the Turkish lira, Naci Aqbal had to leave his post in February - and the national currency of Turkey responded by losing value again. Taking into account these constant staff changes in the highest ranks of the Turkish Central Bank, it's not a surprise that the national Turkish currency behaves in such an unstable manner. On top of that, see that, global investors are increasingly losing faith in the Turkish economy that is becoming less attractive for investment and hence propels the lira's depreciation. One of the reasons for the current upswing of USD/TRY may be the announcement that Joe Biden may officially recognize the actions of the Ottoman Empire in 1915 towards the Armenian population as genocide - a move that will definitely strike hard at the US-Turkish relations, and the Turkish authorities already warned their American counterparts of that. In the meantime, this move may be considered as US warning to Turkey as well: so far, while being in the NATO, Turkey did not hesitate to purchase Russian arms raising questions - at least, on the American side - about the true nature of its intentions and loyalty to the military alliance. In any case, the US-Turkish relations are becoming worse day by day, and that's pressing on the Turkish lira. If it continues like that, USD/TRY may well reach 9.00 in the nearest future. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Gold Continues to Rebound, Despite Hawkish Powell’s Letter

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.04.2021 15:52
The price of gold rebounded further, despite hawkish Powell’s letter to Senator Rick Scott.The second quarter of 2021 started much better than the first one for the gold bulls . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to $1,778 on Tuesday (April 20).Is it a temporary recovery in a long, downward slide or a return to the bull market that started in 2019? Well, it’s probably too early to determine whether that’s the case. What is, however, crucial here is that the yellow metal has managed to go up, despite some bearish news. The most important fact is that Powell has replied to the letter from Senator Rick Scott on rising inflation and public debt . The Fed Chair’s reply was rather hawkish , as he said that any overshoot of inflation target would be limited:We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period (…) we are fully committed to both legs of our dual mandate – maximum employment and stable prices (…) We understand well the lessons of the high inflation experience in the 1960s and 1970s, and the burdens that experience created for all Americans. We do not anticipate inflation pressures of that type, but we have the tools to address such pressures if they do arise.Although Powell didn’t say anything surprising, his tone and emphasis on the commitment to stable prices could be interpreted as generally hawkish and, thus, negative for the gold prices. However, the yellow metal continued its rebound, which is encouraging .Implications for GoldSo why has gold been rising recently? Well, in a sense, the reason might be simple: the sentiment was so negative that the downward trend had to reverse. However, there are also some fundamental factors at play here. First of all, the rallies both in the bond yields and the US dollar have stalled . As the chart below shows, both the greenback and the real interest rates have receded from their March peaks..The declines in the bond and forex markets enabled gold to catch its breath. Of further importance is that they started falling when it became clear that the Fed would be more dovish and tolerant of higher inflation than was originally believed by the markets.Second, there has been a surge in global coronavirus cases which renewed a demand for the safe-haven assets, such as gold . Also, in the US, the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations is increasing in some areas of the country, despite the vaccination progress. That is the effect of the new variants of the virus and the pandemic fatigue, i.e., many people tired of it have dropped their infection control measures.Third, inflation is accelerating , which is becoming increasingly visible. For example, the latest IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI shows that costs and charges have historically elevated in March.Supplier lead times lengthened to the greatest extent on record. At the same time, inflationary pressures intensified, with cost burdens rising at the quickest rate for a decade. Firms partially passed on higher input costs to clients through the sharpest increase in charges in the survey’s history.Commenting on the numbers, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:Raw material prices are increasing at the sharpest rate for a decade and factory gate selling prices have risen to a degree not seen since at least 2007. The fastest rates of increase for both new orders and prices was [sic] reported among producers of consumer goods, as the arrival of stimulus cheques in the post added fuel to a marked upswing in demand.What matters here is that the inflationary pressure is likely to remain with us for a while, despite the pundits’ claims that it’s triggered merely by temporary factors. In the 1970s, they were talking the same – until stagflation emerged and gold shined .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

SPX Short Squeeze – Here Or Not?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.04.2021 16:07
S&P 500 turned around at the open, and didn‘t look back. Is the selling over, have the markets turned the corner? Buy the dip looks to have won the day, VIX has been beaten back, and corporate credit markets scored strong gains. The benefit of the doubt would go with the bulls as the Russell 2000 and emerging markets joined in the buying spree. Heck, even the option traders turned more complacent again.The table looks set for brighter days, but it‘s the odd performance in value (the reopening fireworks don‘t seem to go stale ever really) ignoring retreating yields, which the tech heavyweights strangely neither rejoiced. That reminds me of the dog that didn‘t bark story. I‘m thus looking for a daily consolidation of surprisingly easily gained ground without ruling out a weak downswing attempt – but it‘s the upside potential that‘s looking short-term limited here. The daily SPX chart doesn‘t give me confidence yet to declare this correction as not returning next week.Nominal yields have again retreated a little, and inflation expectations are sending inconclusive messages – but don‘t forget that inflation is what the Fed ultimately wants. It just has to balance that with the Treasuries market not going into a tailspin – for now, mission accomplished, inflation expectations have peaked, move along, nothing to see here.But the higher commodity prices are sending a clear message to the contrary – look for the PPI readings to be affecting CPI increasingly more. Markets aren‘t waiting for the Fed, and have been transitioning to a higher inflation environment already, even though the Fed sold the transitory talking points quite well – it would indeed be a 2022-3 story when inflation supported by the overheating job market would kick in. That‘s the context decreasing nominal yields should be interpreted in.Gold welcomes this reflation period with nominal yields becoming a tailwind, as reflation is also a time when commodities do great, not just the stock market. And we‘re in the decade of precious metals and commodities super bull runs – and these are well underway. The debasement of fiat currencies against real assets is set to continue, and will accelerate given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support already and ahead – sorry dollar bulls, the greenback declines are resuming – just look at the yen and yields nodding to the metals upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe dip was bought right at the open yesterday, in a tentative sign of strength. A superficial one, precisely, for the correction might not be over.Credit MarketsBoth the high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and investment grade ones (LQD ETF) rose in tandem, but the volume wasn‘t entirely there – similar to stocks. Regardless of the sectoral imbalances discussed below, it‘s a strong argument for why any resumption of selling won‘t likely get too far.Technology and ValueValue keeps pulling the 500-strong index ahead while the leadership in tech remains outside the woefully underperforming heavyweights. I‘m looking at that to change over time, though.Gold and SilverGold upswing is still in a healthy shape, with miners outperforming. The retreating nominal yields have turned into a tailwind as gold gathers strength to break the $1,800 level shortly.Yesterday was characterized by silver‘s strength, and that means an issue of varying proportions usually ahead. But I am interpreting the chart as a weak setback only, a very temporary one – this isn‘t any kind of turnaround.Gold‘s Big PictureThis is the key chart proving that the precious metals upleg has started weeks ago – the caption says it all. Look for much higher prices ahead as weeks and months roll by.SummaryThe shallow S&P 500 consolidation won‘t likely continue today as another good unemployment figure came in, and I look for the sectoral imbalances to improve later today and tomorrow.Gold and miners are taking a little breather, together with silver. Nothing unexpected or groundbreaking, the precious metals upleg is well established already, and $1,800 will be history as early as next week, when the rip your face off rally continues.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Silver, Read the moves

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.04.2021 12:14
Not every price advance is the same in its validity. Let us have a look at why recent Silver price movements are so promising:Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The giveaway:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 21st, 2021.A glance at the daily chart above shows with green arrows our entry points on Silver over the last three weeks. We post all entries (and exits) in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The very first three entries (green arrows to the left) were based on momentum. We stepped up to the plate finding fractal volume support, and use the contrarian approach to step into momentum to take advantage of the action/reaction principle supporting our Quad exit strategy for quick risk mitigation of early partial profit-taking.Another look shows that at points A, B, and C, the lows of each retracement (leg 1,2,3) are very modest in percentage. Meaning the bears didn’t get a foot in the door. Consequently, we built a more aggressive position size. We took advantage of low-risk entry points again.The final giveaway that price might pierce through the central heart at US$26 of a previous congestion zone is marked with a yellow circle. For four days, price rejected this distribution zone, represented by the long wicks to the upside. But at no time was there a follow-through of price decline to the downside from bears attempting to short US$26.We now find ourselves positioned well with ten runners left:SymbolDATEentryfin 50%1st target 25%2nd target 25%(= runner)XAGUSD3/3023.780000023.870000023.9500000XAGUSD3/3124.300000024.380000024.8300000XAGUSD4/124.280000024.710000024.8400000XAGUSD4/424.588000024.688000024.8440000XAGUSD4/524.780000025.000000025.1400000XAGUSD4/1224.690000024.930000025.3500000XAGUSD4/1325.300000025.420000025.9700000XAGUSD4/1925.715000025.800000026.0700000XAGUSD4/2025.755000025.940000026.5470000XAGUSD4/2025.930000026.000000026.0350000  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The original plan and its risk:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.We posted this monthly chart three weeks ago in our weekly chartbook. Our long-term plan is in motion just as strategized. It is necessary now that we have eliminated the risk to expand our projections and set target zones for our ten runners. We consider them as one whole position unit. We visualize this progression in the following chart.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, Read the moves:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 21st, 2021.We find ourselves not only in a risk-free position but have pocketed some substantial profits. We also carry a 2.5 typical position size in runners (10x 25% of standard size).This allows for opening up to a more significant risk/reward-ratio. We changed our original target near all-time highs to a runner target now at US$73.33 (based on Fibonacci number sequencing). The financing target for half of the position size is set to US$28.77. We will exit another 25% position size as well at US$47.63. These targets are based on fractal volume analysis of distribution zones.Silver, Read the moves:When dealing with more complex methods of risk elimination, position building, transfer time frames, and money management, it is essential to read the market right. While most follow hunches, leverage, or simplified money management and are at most times not even aware of the risk they are taking on, we scrutinize the market in its development of turning points to not arrive at unrecoverable risk positions. Trading isn’t about maximizing profits. It is a constant evaluation of probabilities and market behavior to ride market cycles like surfer ocean waves.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 22nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Gold: a trend change coming?

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 23.04.2021 14:12
We've been talking a lot about the long-term downtrend of gold that's been the case since July 2020. Frequently, the price goes above and below that channel but then inevitably gets back into it. Since the end of 2020, that channel's upside has been mostly coinciding with the 100-MA. Now, golf is up there testing 100-MA below $1,800. Will it break the trend then?First, even if it does, the trend may still stay valid just like it's been before: 80% of the time, the price was within the channel, but 20% still saw it deviate from the trend. Therefore, what we see now is just a possible breakout - whether it'll be a true trend change, only time will show: fo that, the changing configuration of the Moving Averages will serve as an indicator; so far, they're all aligned in a downward formation.Second, gold may go as high as 200-MA at $1,850 just as it did twice previously. That all will not be an impediment for it to get back down into the channel: whatever the bullish breakaway is, it won't change the trend unless it goes beyond the resistance of the 200-MA at $1,850. Lastly, observe an interesting thing: there is a double top at $1,955, and there is a double bottom at $1,680. The gold price failed to cross either. That suggests a possibility that in the coming months, it'll trade between the two revolving around the core channel of $1,800-1,850. Let's watch it!Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

The Tax Plan to Slay the Stock Bull?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.04.2021 16:11
A day like almost any other – S&P 500 about to take again on the ATHs until the capital gains tax hike proposal came, shaving off 50 points in stocks within an hour. The 4,415 support held though, both before and after the closing bell. Are we ready to shake off the cold water and resume running higher again?Depends on where you look – stocks have quite some recovering still to do, and it‘s the precious metals and commodities that are performing best today. Both as an index and sectoral collection, the S&P 500 sustained broad damage, concentrated in the tech heavyweights. The volatility spike has been partially repelled but option traders seem expecting another shoe to drop, which attests to us better dampening expectations of a fast return above 4,170.Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year). As the Chinese say, may you live in interesting times, and I am glad to have caught the April 2020 turnaround reasonably well. I‘m bringing this up just to say that this isn‘t the time to turn bearish on stocks yet – not in the least. The initial panic is over, real economy keeps recovering (amazing how fast were the reasonably good unemployment claims of yesterday forgotten, right?), inflation expectations aren‘t running progressively hotter, and Treasury yields continue retreating.Another argument for why this is a storm in a tea cup (I‘m talking merely stock market perspective now, not the very real consequences about to hit the economy like a trainwreck in slow motion), is the Russell 2000 and emerging markets performance yesterday – reasonably bullish given the setback most keenly felt in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Unless the latter recaptures $52,500 promptly and convincingly, it‘s going to remain in hot water as yet another tax cash cow on the horizon, which aligns nicely with the Yellen weekend cryptos announcement. A bit over 24hrs ago in response to a question from my great West Coast subscriber, I highlighted Bitcoin vulnerability as it has been unable to revert back above the 50-day moving average, drawing the $52,500 line in the „bulls still have a chance“ sand. Now, I would have to be convinced by the upswing‘s strength recapturing said level, which I‘m not expecting even though the asset trades quite extended relative to the lower border of its daily chart Bollinger Bands.Thus far, precious metals, copper, oil and other commodities are holding up best – little surprising given the risk-off nature of yesterday‘s move and potentially misplaced hopes that the 28% collectibles tax on the metals would survive. These things tend to creep.Gold or miners held up reasonably well yesterday, and I look for them to be fastest in recapturing the lost ground, followed by silver. The precious metals upleg has started, we‘re in a real assets super bull market, and this little hiccup won‘t derail it. The sad implication would actually drive it as capital formation would be hampered, unproductive behaviors encouraged, and potential output lowered. Pretty serious consequences – add to which inflation as that‘s what the Fed ultimately wants, and the recipe for more people falling into higher tax brackets through illusory gains, is set. Then, as inflation starts firing on all cylinders – a 2022-3 story when the job market starts overheating – the pain would be felt more keenly. And this is supposed to be the environment where the dollar would be in a bull run, now and ever? Wake up:(…) we‘re in the decade of precious metals and commodities super bull runs – and these are well underway. The debasement of fiat currencies against real assets is set to continue, and will accelerate given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support already and ahead – sorry dollar bulls, the greenback declines are resuming – just look at the yen and yields nodding to the metals upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe intraday reversal is thus far lacking volume and follow through. That means it would be premature to jump to conclusions as to the shallow correction extending deeper.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio isn‘t panicking either. So far, the move has been hesitant and orderly.Technology and ValueValue keeps being most resilient, and the tech sector stands in the middle, dragged lower by the heavyweights. I would like these to stop leading to the downside so as to declare the correction as approaching its end in terms of prices.Inflation ExpectationsThe inflation expectations are in a momentary limbo, but seem as likely to rise again shortly. That would be one more piece of the puzzle bringing real rates down, making the yellow metal‘s fundamental outlook more positive (as if it hadn‘t been already).Gold and SilverThe decline across the gold sector has been orderly yesterday, and the retreating yields (helped by the stock market turmoil) are putting a nice floor below the king of metals. I look for miners to keep leading higher shortly again.The key message is the one by the copper to 10-year Treasuries yield – a little hesitation yesterday, hinting at a little more time being necessary to overcome the $1,800 barrier next.SummaryThe S&P 500 is at a crossroads determining how low would the shock-facilitated consolidation stretch. Thus far, signs are modestly leaning in favor of the worst being in, and a gradual repair coming next.Gold and miners took a daily dive in sympathy with stocks yesterday, but I look for the precious metals sector to recover fastest, and overcome the next resistance convincingly.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Will a Fiscal Revolution Raise Gold to the Throne?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.04.2021 16:29
Revolution, baby! There is growing acceptance for an aggressive fiscal policy, which could be supportive for gold prices from the fundamental, long-term point of view.We live in turbulent times. The pandemic is still raging and will most likely have lost lasting effects on our society. But a revolution is also happening right before our eyes. And I don’t mean another storming of the U.S. Capitol or the clash of individual investors with big fish on Wall Street. I have in mind something less spectacular but potentially more influential: a macroeconomic revolution.I refer here to the growing acceptance of easy fiscal policy . In the aftermath of the Great Recession , the central banks adopted an aggressive monetary policy , slashing interest rates to almost zero and introducing quantitative easing . It has become a new norm since then.But fiscal policy was another kettle of fish. Although almost nobody cared about balanced government budgets, people at least pretended to worry about overly large fiscal deficits and an overly quick accumulation of public debt . For example, while Obama wanted $1.8 trillion in fiscal stimulus in a response to the global financial crisis of 2007-09, Congress passed a package of about $800 billion, as Republicans opposed larger spending. But in March 2020, Congress passed the CARES act worth about $2 trillion (and additional significant stimulus in December 2020), with the full support of Republicans.Even Germany – the country famous for its fiscal conservatism – ran a fiscal deficit in 2020 and – what’s more – agreed to issue bonds jointly with other EU countries, although it was previously a taboo. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), another bastion of economic orthodoxy, which advocated for austerity and balanced budgets for years, gave up during the epidemic and started to call for more fiscal stimulus to fight the economic crisis .And this fiscal revolution is already seen in data. As the chart below shows, the U.S. fiscal deficit has increased from 4.6 percent of GDP in 2019 (which was already at an elevated level) to 15 percent of GDP in 2020, the highest level in the post-war era.According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Update from January 2021 , fiscal deficits amounted to 13.3 percent of GDP , on average, in advanced economies, in 2021, a spike from 3.3 percent seen in 2019. As a consequence, the gross global debt approached 98 percent in 2020 and it’s projected to reach 99.5 percent of the world’s GDP by the end of this year.What is important to note here is that government support wasn’t limited mainly to the financial institutions and big companies (such as automakers), as was the case in 2009, but it was distributed more widely. There was a huge direct money transfer to Main Street, including checks for practically all citizens. This is important for two reasons.First, money flowing into the economy through nonfinancial institutions and people’s accounts may be more inflationary. This is because money doesn’t stay in the financial market where it mainly raises asset prices, but it’s more likely to be spent on consumer goods, boosting the CPI inflation rate . Higher officially reported inflation (and relatively lower asset prices) should support gold , which is seen by investors as an inflation hedge .Second, the direct cash transfer to the people creates a dangerous precedent. From now, each time the economy falls into crisis, people will demand checks. It means that fiscal responses would have to be increasingly larger to meet the inflated expectations of the public. It also implies that we are approaching a universal basic income, with its mammoth fiscal costs and all related negative economic and social consequences.Summing up, we live in revolutionary times. The old paradigm that “central banks are the only game in town” has been replaced by the idea that fiscal policy should be more aggressively used. Maintaining balanced budgets is also a dead concept – who would care about deficits when interest rates are so low?However, assigning a greater role to fiscal policy in achieving macroeconomic goals increases the risk of higher inflation and macroeconomic instability, as politicians tend to be pro-cyclical and reckless. After all, the economic orthodoxy that monetary policy is better suited to achieve macroeconomic stability didn’t come out from nowhere, but from awful experiences of the fiscal follies of the past. I’m not a fan of central bankers, but they are at least less short-sighted than politicians who think mainly about how to win the next election and stay in power.Hence, the growing acceptance of easy fiscal policy should be positive for gold prices , especially considering that it will be accompanied by an accommodative monetary policy. Such a policy mix should increase the public debt and inflation, which could support gold prices. The caveat is that investors have so far welcomed more stimulus flowing from both the Fed and the Treasury. But this “go big” approach of Powell and Yellen increases the longer-term risk for the economy, which could materialize – similar to the pandemic – sooner than anyone thought.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.04.2021 15:35
The tax hike proposal shock is over, and S&P 500 took again on the ATHs on Friday. Buying pressure throughout the day lasted almost till the closing bell, and is likely to continue this week as well. And why shouldn‘t it – has anything changed? The artificial selling any capital gains tax hike would generate, is likely to come before year end – not now:(…) Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year). The move towards risk-on was clearly there, overpowering the USD bulls yet again as the dollar bear market has reasserted itself. It‘s not just about EUR/USD on the way to its late Feb highs, but about the USD/JPY too – the yen carry trade is facing headwinds these days, acting as a supportive factor for gold prices. While these went through a daily correction, commodities pretty much didn‘t – lumber is powering to new highs, agrifoods didn‘t have a down day in April, copper and oil scored respectable gains. The market is in a higher inflation environment already, and it will become increasingly apparent that commodity-led inflation is here to stay.Back to stocks and bonds, the S&P 500 took well to a daily rise in Treasury yields – and that‘s the key factor overall. The turnaround was most clearly seen in tech heavyweights but defensive sectors such as consumer staples or utilities didn‘t do well (they‘re interest rate sensitive, after all), and Dow Jones Industrial Average traded closer to the optimistic side of the spectrum. The second piece of the puzzle came from value stocks and financials, which are working to put an end to their own shallow correction – just as you would expect when rates take a turn higher.So, another volatility spike has been banished, but option traders aren‘t yet satisfied, and keep piling into protective instruments. I view this as a fuel of the upcoming rally continuation, unless the tech‘s earnings batch doesn‘t disappoint as Netflix subscriber base growth did.One more argument in favor of the S&P 500 upswing, comes from the smallcaps – the time of their outperformance, is approaching. Likewise emerging markets are starting to do better, and the dollar effect is part of the explanation.Gold took sensitively to the rise in yields, and retreating dollar didn‘t lift it up really. The yellow metal disregarded proportional increase in inflation expectations, and so did the miners – indicating that a brief soft patch in the precious metals sector can‘t be excluded. This doesn‘t change my Friday‘s thoughts that:(…) The precious metals upleg has started, we‘re in a real assets super bull market, and this little hiccup won‘t derail it. The sad implication would actually drive it as capital formation would be hampered, unproductive behaviors encouraged, and potential output lowered. Pretty serious consequences – add to which inflation as that‘s what the Fed ultimately wants, and the recipe for more people falling into higher tax brackets through illusory gains, is set. Then, as inflation starts firing on all cylinders – a 2022-3 story when the job market starts overheating – the pain would be felt more keenly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookIt‘s not an issue that the two latest upswings happened on decreasing volume as I view the preceding modest volume spike as a sign of weak selling turning into accumulation. There is plenty of doubt to drive further S&P 500 gains.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG ETF) and investment grade ones (LQD ETF) have risen on Friday, and the divergence to long-dated Treasuries is another key factor driving the risk-on return conclusion.Technology and FinancialsThe $NYFANG strength was the key deciding factor in the S&P 500 upswing, and value stocks didn‘t stand in the way much either. Financials joined in the upswing by tech are a sign of the shallow correction drawing to its end.Gold & Miners WeeklyCompare this chart to the one that I published on Thursday – the red candle smacking of reversal is actually just an initial rejection in my view. It‘ll take a while to return back above the 50-day moving average, but that‘s a question of time merely. Gold miners are still outperforming, and the upside momentum in the gold sector merely paused. We may see a brief pullback as the bears try their luck, but it will be only a temporary setback – there is no telling weakness in any of the markets I am looking at that would indicate otherwise.Gold, Silver and Key RatioThe copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio shows that the markets aren‘t buying the transitory inflation story – the rush into commodities goes on, and justifiably so. Just look how much silver has been resilient, and the white metal is uniquely positioned to benefit both from the economic recovery, forced shift into green economy, and building monetary pressures.Seniors vs. JuniorsThroughout the 10+month long correction, juniors had been the more resilient ones, but it was the seniors that I called to lead gold out of the bottom. And they did, meaning that juniors had underperformed over the coming month clearly. Once animal spirits return even more to the precious metals sector, their outperformance is likely to return as the market appetite for ounces in the ground grows. We aren‘t there yet, but the new upleg is well underway.SummaryThe S&P 500 turned around convincingly, and new highs are a question of a rather short amount of time – be prepared though for headline risks should we get an (unlikely) earnings disappointment.Gold and miners are in consolidation mode as they failed to take advantage of plunging dollar and rising commodity prices, but the precious metals sector is likely to play a catch up relative to commodities as its sluggish post Aug performance would get inevitably forgotten.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Gold Miners: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.04.2021 16:22
Indicators are pointing to gold and mining ETFs running out of breath. They don’t seem to have what it takes to the move to the finish line.Despite gold, silver and mining stocks’ recent corrective upswings, the precious metals are running out of steam. After bursting off of the lows – while failing to recognize that it’s a marathon and not a sprint – the precious metals’ late-week breather signals that their stamina isn’t what it used to be.Moreover, with false breakouts and sanguine sentiment causing an adrenaline rush that’s likely to fade, the precious metals’ transformation from stalwart to sloth could leave investors feeling increasingly dejected.Case in point: with the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) already verifying the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern – which didn’t occur until later in 2008 – the miners’ outlook is actually more bearish now than it was then.Please see below:To explain, note that the 2007 – 2008 and the 2009 – 2012 head and shoulders patterns didn’t have the right shoulders all the way up to the line that was parallel to the line connecting the bottoms. I marked those lines with green in the above-mentioned formations. In the current case, I marked those lines with orange. Now, in both cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw – the recent high was slightly above 299.This means that the recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short-term only.The thing is that the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. During the walk, this might result in getting lost, and the implications are no different in the investment landscape.From the day-to-day perspective, a weekly – let alone monthly – rally seems like a huge deal. However, once one zooms out and looks at the situation from a broad perspective, it’s clear that:“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” (-Ecclesiastes 1:9)The rally is very likely the right shoulder of a broad head and shoulders formation. “Very likely” and not “certainly”, because the HUI Index needs to break to new yearly lows in order to complete the pattern – for now, it’s just potential. However, given the situation in the USD Index (i.a. the positions of futures traders as seen in the CoT report , and the technical situation in it), it seems very likely that this formation will indeed be completed. Especially when (not if) the general stock market tumbles.In addition, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the decline exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.Can we see gold stocks as low as we saw them last year? Yes.Can we see gold stocks even lower than at their 2020 lows? Again, yes.Of course, it’s far from being a sure bet, but the above chart shows that it’s not irrational to expect these kind of price levels before the final bottom is reached. This means that a $24 target on the GDX ETF is likely conservative.In addition, mining stocks are currently flirting with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early 2020 high.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.I know, I know, this seems too unreal to be true… But wasn’t the same said about silver moving below its 2015 bottom in 2020? And yet, it happened.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, the sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500 . However, with the words ‘all-time high’ becoming commonplace across U.S. equities, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.Senior Miners: GDX ETFMoving on to the GDX ETF, the senior miners were unable to hold the upper trendline of their corrective zigzag pattern. Similar to the price action in late 2020/early 2021, the GDX ETF rallied slightly above the upper trendline of its roughly one-and-a-half-month channel before eventually rolling over. More importantly, though, the GDX ETF’s failure in early 2021 ended up being a prelude to the senior miners’ severe drawdown.Please see below:Furthermore, with the senior miners likely to peak in the coming days, the GDX ETF is poised to move from the right shoulder of its bearish H&S pattern. Following in the HUI Index’s footsteps, the GDX ETF’s correction back to the high of its left shoulder signals that the upward momentum has likely run its course.If that wasn’t enough, the GDX ETF’s stochastic oscillator is also flashing a clear sell signal. If you analyze the two red arrows positioned at the bottom of the chart above, you can see that the black line has once again crossed the red line from above. As a result, the GDX ETF’s days are likely numbered.Junior Miners: GDXJ ETFAs further evidence on this bearish scenario, let’s take a look at other proxies for the mining stocks. When analyzed through the lens of the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners remain significant underperformers.Please see below:To explain, the GDXJ ETF is now back below its late-Feb. highs - please note how weak it remains relative to other proxies for mining stocks. Unlike the HUI or the GDX, the GDXJ didn’t move visibly above its late-Feb. highs and it had already invalidated this small breakout.Moreover, the GDXJ/GDX ratio has been declining since the beginning of the year, which is remarkable because the general stock market hasn’t plunged yet. This tells us that when stocks finally slide, the ratio is likely to decline in a truly profound manner – perhaps similarly to what we saw last year.So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Also, contrasting the GDX ETF’s false breakout, both the HUI and the XAU indices ended the week below the necklines of their previous (based on the rising necklines) bearish H&S patterns. Moreover, if you analyze the right side of the charts below, while both the HUI and XAU indices initially bounced above their necklines, investors quickly sold the rallies.Mirroring the GDX ETF, both indices are also eliciting sell signals from their stochastic oscillators. And with the GDX ETF the only wolf still howling at the moon, expect the senior miners to follow the rest of the pack lower in the near future.Also, eliciting bearish undertones, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio has recorded a major, confirmed breakdown. And with the ratio nowhere near recapturing its former glory, it’s another sign that the GDX ETF is a significant outlier.Please see below:When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.Playing out as I expected, a sharp move lower was followed by a corrective upswing back to the now confirmed breakdown level (which is now resistance). Mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018, after breaking below its rising support line, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete, the current move lower still has plenty of room to run. Likewise, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme, the greenback could spoil the miners’ party once again.In addition, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM)As another reliable indicator (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now approaching 47. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 37 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.Thus, with the sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.But has it already run its course?Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.The NASDAQCircling back to the NASDAQ Composite, the unwinding of excessive speculation could deliver a fierce blow to the gold miners. Case in point: when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the NASDAQ lost nearly 80% of its value, while the gold miners lost more than 50% of their value.Please see below:Right now, the two long-term channels above (the solid blue and red dashed lines) show that the NASDAQ is trading well above both historical trends.Back in 1998, the NASDAQ’s last hurrah occurred after the index declined to its 200-day moving average (which was also slightly above the upper border of the rising trend channel marked with red dashed lines).And what happened in the first half of 2020? Well, we saw an identical formation.The similarity between these two periods is also evident if one looks at the MACD indicator . There has been no other, even remotely similar, situation where this indicator would soar so high.Furthermore, and because the devil is in the details, the gold miners’ 1999 top actually preceded the 2000 NASDAQ bubble bursting. It’s clear that miners (the XAU Index serves as a proxy) are on the left side of the dashed vertical line, while the tech stock top is on its right side. However, it’s important to note that it was stocks’ slide that exacerbated miners’ decline. Right now, the mining stocks are already declining, and the tech stocks continue to rally. Two decades ago, tech stocks topped about 6 months after miners. This might spoil the party of the tech stock bulls, but miners topped about 6 months ago…Also supporting the 2000 analogue, today’s volume trends are eerily similar. If you analyze the red arrows on the chart above, you can see that the abnormal spike in the MACD indicator coincided with an abnormal spike in volume. Thus, mounting pressure implies a cataclysmic reversal could be forthcoming.Interestingly, two decades ago, miners bottomed more or less when the NASDAQ declined to its previous lows, created by the very first slide. We have yet to see the “first slide” this time. But, if the history continues to repeat itself and tech stocks decline sharply and then correct some of the decline, when they finally move lower once again, we might see THE bottom in the mining stocks. Of course, betting on the above scenario based on the XAU-NASDAQ link alone would not be reasonable, but if other factors also confirm this indication, this could really take place.Either way, the above does a great job at illustrating the kind of link between the general stock market and the precious metals market ( gold , silver , and mining stocks) that I expect to see also this time. PMs and miners declined during the first part of the stocks’ (here: tech stocks) decline, but then they bottomed and rallied despite the continuation of stocks’ freefall.Even more ominous, the MACD indicator is now flashing a clear sell signal . And because the current reading is analogous to the one that preceded the dot-com bust, the NASDAQ Composite – and indirectly, the PMs – continues to sail toward the perfect storm.With all of that said: how will we know when a medium-term buying opportunity presents itself?We view price target levels as guidelines and the same goes for the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (below 10), but the final confirmation will likely be gold’s strength against the ongoing USDX rally. At many vital bottoms in gold, that’s exactly what happened, including the March bottom.In conclusion, with the gold miners running low on strength, stamina and staying power, their fragile foundation is already crumbling beneath the surface. With the HUI, XAU and GDXJ proxies unable to match wits with the GDX ETF, the lone survivor is unlikely to put up much of a fight going forward. Moreover, with the USD Index poised to bounce off of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (the precious metals have a strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar), the foursome are likely to huff and puff their way to lower prices. However, after a period of medium-term recovery, the precious metals will be ready to run with the bulls once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Bitcoin, Exploration needs persistence

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.04.2021 18:36
Bitcoin is in a steep uptrend, and as such, the trader’s business is to exploit each retracement if it offers a low-risk entry point.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, The road map:Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of April 26th, 2021.We always advise finding the bigger picture first. The monthly chart illustrates clearly the directional market, which is the essence of edge for a trader. Anything that gives us an edge is of value, and all those edges mounting up together to a true edge is what we are after.Where interest arose was finding besides the trend two additional points of interest: First, we identified a significant volume support supply zone near US$47,680. Secondly, there seems to be a pattern if you look at the vertical lines we drew, that prices seem to bounce to the long side once the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) approached near the zero lines.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Stacking the odds:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 26th, 2021.The next step is finding supporting factors and other odds stacked in lower time frames. One way measuring retracements is through Fibonacci retracement tools. In the above weekly chart, we did this by measuring from each leg lows (1-4) to the highs to find an overlapping high probability point of support for a possible turning point to occur.The yellow circle provided just such a zone of odds in our favor with a carpet of support under the price. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Fine-tuning the entry:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 26th, 2021.Now zooming into the daily chart time frame, we are looking to extrapolate an ideal time to enter the market with the most negligible risk. When prices were rejected twice into the zone below US$48,000, we were alerted to act (wicks within the yellow circle).We bought the opening session on Sunday the 25th of April at US$49,000 and immediately eliminated risk through our Quad exit strategy, taking half of the position off once it reached US$50,750. Now we find ourselves positioned riskless and look fearless into the unknown future.Bitcoin, Exploration needs persistence:No one knows the future. Yes, prices might retrace even further to the next high probability zone near US$37,310 (see monthly chart above). A thirty-nine percent chance, as our systems indicate. But as explorers, we never have ideal circumstances. We get a window of opportunity, and often explorers need to retreat. However, with persistence, they do make their goals come true, even if it takes a few attempts. It is entry risk minimization and our quad exit strategy that allows us to try persistently without losing money to find those trades that pay off handsomely. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
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Intraday Market Analysis – In Search Of Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.04.2021 08:11
EURUSD pulls back to supportThe euro popped higher after the Eurozone’s bond yields rose on improved sentiment. The pair maintained its recovery trajectory after it turned 1.1990 from resistance into support.The euro has met strong selling pressure at March’s high at 1.2110 while the RSI shot into the overbought area.The current retracement would test the demand zone between the psychological level of 1.2000 and 1.2045.A rebound followed by a rally above 1.2110 would suggest a bullish continuation towards 1.2180.NZDUSD rises above consolidation rangeRisk sentiment makes its return at the start of the week driving higher the commodity-linked New Zealand dollar.The pair has found strong support by the demand area above 0.7120. The current rebound is heading towards the key resistance (0.7270) from the daily chart.A bullish breakout could end the two-month-long consolidation and put the kiwi back on track.A rise above 0.7210 is the final confirmation for the bullish MA cross as the upward momentum accelerates. 0.7165 is the closest support in case of a retracement.XAUUSD tests major supportGold keeps the high ground as the US dollar index remains subdued near an eight-week low. Price action is currently sideways as buyers are trying to accumulate momentum after the latest series of higher highs.The RSI has cooled down from the overbought zone. The area around 1764 and the rising trendline (1770) is important support on an hourly basis.A rebound could propel the precious metal back to 1815.On the downside, however, a drop to 1744 may extend the consolidation by shaking out weak hands.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

The Inflation Tsunami About to Hit

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.04.2021 15:59
Stocks went on to push higher yesterday – the pressure is building. Trends in place since last week, remain in place for this earnings rich one too. Reflation still rules, reopening trades are well underway, and inflation expectations are modestly turning up again without putting too much strain on the Treasury markets.While Monday wasn‘t an example of a risk-on day, the markets are clearly moving there:(…) overpowering the USD bulls yet again as the dollar bear market has reasserted itself. It‘s not just about EUR/USD on the way to its late Feb highs, but about the USD/JPY too – the yen carry trade is facing headwinds these days, acting as a supportive factor for gold prices. While these went through a daily correction, commodities pretty much didn‘t – lumber is powering to new highs, agrifoods didn‘t have a down day in April, copper and oil scored respectable gains. The market is in a higher inflation environment already, and it will become increasingly apparent that commodity-led inflation is here to stay.Yesterday was a great day for commodities again as these scored stronger gains than tech or $NYFANG, the main winners within the S&P 500 (defensives took it on the chin – seems like we‘re about to see rates move higher again). Anyway, VIX didn‘t object as options traders piled into the clearly complacent end of the spectrum again. Both the Russell 2000 and emerging markets loved that – the best days for smallcaps are clearly ahead:(…) the time of their outperformance, is approaching.Gold miners didn‘t outperform the yellow metal yesterday while silver did – are the ingredients for a metals‘ top in place? I don‘t think so, and have actually called out on Twitter the GDX downswing as likely to be rejected and ending with a noticeable lower knot. And here we are. No changes to my Friday‘s thoughts that:(…) The precious metals upleg has started, we‘re in a real assets super bull market, and this little hiccup won‘t derail it. The sad implication would actually drive it as capital formation would be hampered, unproductive behaviors encouraged, and potential output lowered. Pretty serious consequences – add to which inflation as that‘s what the Fed ultimately wants, and the recipe for more people falling into higher tax brackets through illusory gains, is set. Then, as inflation starts firing on all cylinders – a 2022-3 story when the job market starts overheating – the pain would be felt more keenly. When even Larry Summers starts talking the dangers of an inflationary wave, things are really likely getting serious down the road. On a side note, my tomorrow‘s analysis will be briefer than usual, and published probably a bit later as I have unavoidable dental treatment to undergo. Thank you everyone for your patience and loyalty – it‘s already a little over 3 months since I could start publishing totally independent. Thank you so much for all your support!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe bears are certainly running (have certainly run) out of time, and the upper knot of yesterday‘s session looks little concerning to me. Tesla enjoying the Bitcoin moves, more tech earnings soon, and favorable sectoral composition of the S&P 500 advance favor the coming upswing.Credit MarketsDebt instruments got under pressure – high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and investment grade ones (LQD ETF) have declined in a signal of non-confirmation, and joined the long-dated Treasuries in their downswing. I am not yet convinced this is a serious enough more to warrant a change in S&P 500 outlook.Technology and FinancialsThe $NYFANG strength continues, powering tech higher – and that‘s the engine behind solid S&P 500 performance. Notably, financials weren‘t waiting yesterday on other value stocks turning higher, and that‘s bullish.Gold, Silver and MinersGold caught a bid, and refused to decline intraday, which almost matches the miners‘ performance. Given these two daily stands, I‘m in favor of disregarding the usual outperformance warning of silver doing considerably better.This is the proper view of the miners and miners to gold ratio – noticeable outperformance in the latter while the former is getting ready to rise again.Gold and the Key RatioAs is visibly even more true today than yesterday, the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio shows that the markets aren‘t buying the transitory inflation story – the rush into commodities goes on, and justifiably so. This chart is clearly unfavorable to lower metals‘ prices.SummaryThe S&P 500 keeps pushing for new all time highs, which looks to be a matter of relatively short time only. Credit markets non-confirmation is to be disregarded in favor of strong smallcaps, emerging markets and cornered dollar in my view.Gold and miners are in consolidation mode, but this is little concerning to the bulls. No signs of an upcoming reversal and truly bearish plunge - the precious metals sector is likely to play a catch up relative to commodities as its sluggish post Aug performance would get inevitably forgotten.
Will Euro and Gold Go Up With Pandemic Upturn in Euro Area?

Will Euro and Gold Go Up With Pandemic Upturn in Euro Area?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.04.2021 16:39
The worst may already be behind the euro area’s economy. This bodes well – both the euro, as well as gold, can benefit from it.The Governing Council of the European Central Bank met last week, keeping its monetary policy unchanged. The inaction was widely expected - no surprises here. The June meeting could be much more interesting as the ECB will have to decide whether or not to slow its bond buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that was accelerated in the second quarter of the year. Given the dovish stance of the European policymakers, and the bank’s pledge to provide the markets with favorable financing conditions during the pandemic, we shouldn’t expect any tapering soon.Certainly, there are important dovish parts of the latest ECB’s statement on its monetary policy . It stems from the grim economic situation in the euro area. The real GDP declined by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it is expected to decrease again in the first quarter of 2021. The nearest future doesn’t look promising:The near-term economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty about the resurgence of the pandemic and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns. Persistently high rates of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection and the associated extension and tightening of containment measures continue to constrain economic activity in the short term.However, investors should always look beyond the near-team outlook. In the medium-term, the situation in the euro area looks much better. As the ECB notes, this is because the current virus wave seems to have peaked in Europe, while the pace of vaccination is accelerating:Looking ahead, the progress with vaccination campaigns, which should allow for a gradual relaxation of containment measures, should pave the way for a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021.Furthermore, the European Union’s 750 billion euro recovery fund has cleared a key court challenge. Last week, the Germany’s constitutional court dismissed objections to the European aid package.All these factors are positive for the euro and, thus, also for the price of gold. As you can see in the chart below, gold was highly correlated with the spread between the American and German long-term government bond yields - the widening divergence in the US and European interest rates that started in August 2020 pushed the yellow metal down.Implications for GoldThe third wave of pandemic has already peaked in Europe; therefore, the old continent may somewhat catch up with the US. This could narrow the divergence in yields, creating downward pressure on the greenback while supporting the gold prices .Another positive factor for the euro and the yellow metal is the fact that although inflation jumped in both the US and the euro area, it’s much higher in the former country as the chart below shows. So, the purchasing power parity could support the common currency, as well as gold, against the greenback.What’s funny here is that Lagarde , just as Powell , argued that inflation “has picked up over recent months on account of some idiosyncratic and temporary factors and an increase in energy price inflation”. Sure, some idiosyncratic and temporary factors helped inflation to soar, but there are always some idiosyncratic and temporary factors. All the same, the central bankers point to them only when inflation rises, never when it declines. They always refer to these factors to justify their dovish bias and easy monetary policy.Of course, it might be the case that inflation won’t materialize, just like it never did after the Great Recession . But this time may be really different due to the surge in the broad money supply and a huge increase in government spending in the form of direct cash transfers to citizens who are hungry for traveling, eating in restaurants, and generally a normal life with all its money-spending. So, inflation is the wild card, which makes it reasonable to have some gold in investment portfolios . Investors should remember that gold is an investor’s asset rather than a demand asset, which means that in periods of reflation , gold initially lags commodities, only to outperform them and shine brightly in later phases.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.04.2021 00:35
A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.  There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels.  Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles. The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history.  Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have prompted some traders and investors to move into a more highly leveraged position expecting the rally to stay endless.  Although, the reality of the global market trends may be starting to cause traders and investors to become a bit unsettled.  Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds have all started reacting to perceived fear related to this extended bullish rally trend recently.https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/04/24/uh-oh-market-leverage-at-all-time-high/?sh=29eadac1e8a9My research team and I believe the current market rally will likely continue as capital shifts away from extended market sectors.  We believe the transition away from the new US President and the new policies associated with this change of leadership has already started taking place – which is why Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds are starting to trend.  Yet, we believe the momentum behind this current rally is likely to extend through the end of April and into early May 2021. Custom Volatility Index Shows Bullish Trending & Price Volatility RisksOur Custom Volatility Index chart, below, shows the US markets have just recently rallied back to previous bullish market trending levels (above 13 on this chart).  Once this Custom Volatility Index reaches these levels, we normally expect two market traits to continue.  First, we expect bullish trending because the Volatility Index above 10~11 strongly suggests an extended bullish trend is in place.  Secondly, we expect moderate price rotation to take place after the Volatility Index reaches levels above 13~14.It is very common for the Volatility Index to move above the 13~14 level in extended rally trends.  Yet, it is also common for the markets to rotate or retrace after reaching these levels.  Therefore, this Custom Volatility Index chart shows the US markets have moved into extreme bullish price trending and has already reached a peak level near 15 – which suggests we can expect some moderate price rotation within the next 3 to 5+ weeks.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Whenever the US major indexes trend higher in longer-term extended trends, the Custom Volatility Index typically stays above 10~11 and continually attempts to rally above 12~13.  The “Peak Volatility Channel” on this chart highlights areas of extreme peaks in the markets.  When the Custom Volatility Index reaches this level, price becomes more likely to rotate or retrace a bit before attempting to move higher.  Smart Cash Index Shows Global Markets Need To Break Above 210 TO Begin A New Rally PhaseOur following Custom Smart Cash Index shows the global markets have been struggling to move higher over the past few months.  Even though the US markets have attempted to rally to new highs, the Smart Cash Index chart shows this recent rally has not been seen in the global markets. My team and I believe the next rally phase in the markets must initiate with the Smart Cash Index chart rallying above 210 and representing a moderately strong global market push higher throughout the May/June 2021 time span.  If the Smart Cash Index fails to move above the 210 price level, the we believe a moderate price correction may be setting up for May or June 2021 where the US markets may move moderately lower, attempting to retest recent support, then begin another rally attempt.Currently, the global stock market and financial system leverage may be an unknown catalyst for some type of future market movements.  The Forbes article suggests these new all-time high leverage levels are likely the result of global central bank policies where traders and investors believe the central banks will continue to support the markets indefinitely.  As much as we would like to think this may be the case, the reality is that, at some point, normalization will take place in the global markets and that presents an ominous deleveraging event in the future.We are watching how the market's sectors are shifting trends and how some of the strongest sectors are shifting and weakening over the past 60+ days.  For example, the Russell 2000 had been one of the strongest market sectors up until about 2 months ago.  Now it appears to be trading in a sideways trend – attempting to move back into a bullish price trend.Our research team believes traders and investors need to be prepared for quickly shifting sector trends over the next 6+ months as this highly leveraged global market event plays out.  Our research suggests a price rotation event is near and the global markets are still trending in a moderately strongly bullish trend. The strongest sectors are going to continue to be the best performers over time.  Being able to identify and trade these sectors is key to being able to efficiently target profits.  You can learn more about how I identify and trade these sectors by registering for my FREE course here. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!
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Intraday Market Analysis – From Support To Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.04.2021 08:14
USDJPY rises to major resistanceThe Japanese yen stayed muted after the Bank of Japan revised down its inflation forecasts.The bearish MA cross on the daily time frame may weigh on the US dollar as it recovers towards 108.90, a previous daily support now turned into a resistance.The rally above 108.20 in the short-term has prompted some sellers to cover reducing the downward pressure. A close above 108.50 would help gain momentum.As the RSI shows an overbought situation, 108.20 would be the first support In case of a retracement.EURGBP tests triple topEuro buyers are encouraged by news of easing of restrictions in Italy and France. The pair has risen back to the major support area around 0.8720-0.8730.After the failure of the first test, strong bids have supported the price to form a triple top. Would the third time be the charm?A neutral RSI gives buyers enough space to play around. A breakout above 0.8730 would confirm the bullish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger a rally towards 0.88s.On the downside, a drop below 0.8670 may drive the correction down to 0.8630.GER 30 consolidates near a record highThe German index stagnates as the earnings season kicks off in Europe. Last week’s sell-off below 15180 was a sign that buyers took profit after the index made a series of record new highs.On the daily chart, the uptrend is so far intact as the price action hovers above the 20-day moving average. 15410 is the immediate resistance and a bullish breakout would resume the upward movement.However, a breach below 15090 could dent the short-term optimism and trigger a new round of sell-off to 14800.
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USDX: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.04.2021 15:50
Even the smallest moves can be of utmost importance to a number of investors. This time, the USDX was the one to give a subtle nod to the upcoming changes.In yesterday’s analysis , I wrote about the subtle, yet very important short-term detail that likely indicated a major turnaround in the USD Index. This is huge news for the precious metals investors, as a major turnaround in the USDX (and the subsequent rallies) would be very likely to translate into a severe price slide.The important change was that the situation regarded the USD’s 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Last week , I wrote the following:I wouldn’t be surprised to see this week end without any major reversal, but we could see one on Monday. Some traders won’t be able to adjust their stop-loss levels at that time, so if anyone “big” wants to squeeze the profits out of individual traders shorting the USDX before the latter rallies, it would be a perfect time. The idea could be to trigger a small sell-off early on Monday, which would then trigger stop-loss selling, and it would allow the “big” market participant to re-enter the long positions at lower prices.The fact that the USD Index moved slightly below its very important short-term support (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) on Monday (Apr. 26) and then it invalidated this breakdown yesterday (Apr. 27) perfectly fits the above quote.The invalidation of the breakdown is a bullish phenomenon, and even though the price moves are still small, they already suggest that a bigger rally is likely just around the corner. In today’s pre-market trading, the USD Index moved higher once again, which means the invalidation was not accidental.If we zoom in, we’ll see the full importance of what just happened on a short-term basis.We just saw a short-term breakout! Finally, after many days of declines, the USD Index showed enough strength to rally above its short-term declining resistance line.This is yet another sign that the recent price action – despite not being very visible – is a game-changer for the short term.Naturally, the bullish situation in case of the USD Index has bearish implications for the precious metals market.In fact, we can see the implications on the gold market already.As the USD Index broke higher, gold broke below its rising support line, and at the moment of writing these words, it’s already trading below the $1,770 level. The odds that the final top was formed last week – at $1,798.40 – have further increased.In the previous analyses, I wrote quite a lot about the broad head and shoulders pattern in the mining stocks. I discussed that in detail on Monday , so I don’t want to cover the same ground once again today, but as a quick reminder, the HUI Index (proxy for gold stocks) – based on this (hypothetical) pattern and the analogy to previous broad H&S patterns (ones preceding the 2008, 2013 slides) – was likely to form a top close to 300. It topped at 299.09.Now, the thing that I would like to add today is that we see a possibility of seeing a similar broad head-and-shoulders pattern in gold . I marked gold’s April – June 2020 performance with a blue rectangle, and I copied it to the current situation (the rectangles are identical). As you can see, the current price action and the recent short-term, corrective upswing are near-perfectly aligned.Of course, back in 2020 the volatility was huge, and investors were very anxious due to the start of the pandemic-based lockdowns and their immediate follow-up. Consequently, it’s no wonder that back then we saw many back-and-forth movements, and this time – when investors calmed down – the correction is simply a zigzag.We have an analogy in price and time, and a good reason to think that we shouldn’t have analogy in terms of shape. We can also see a breakdown in gold (and a breakout in the USD Index) suggesting that the correction is over.Therefore, it’s likely that what we’re witnessing now will eventually (once gold moves to new yearly lows) turn out to be a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, with very bearish implications.Relative Performance SignThose who have been following my analyses for some time know that right before bigger declines, the precious metals market tends to behave in a specific way. There’s also a specific way in which it behaves during a bottoming process. Consequently, I’m on a constant lookout for these relative signs in order to better forecast gold’s and silver’s outlook . The good news is that we just saw one, and it perfectly fits the rest of today’s analysis.Namely, yesterday was the session during which the following happened at the same time:Gold declined – but only slightly.Gold stocks declined much more visibly, showing weakness relative to gold.And silver showed strength by rallying somewhat.This combination of silver’s outperformance of gold and mining stocks’ underperformance of gold is profoundly bearish for the short term. Consequently, it seems very likely to me that the corrective upswing in the precious metals market is already over and the final short-term top was formed last week.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Want To Invest In Real Estate But Don’t Have The Down Payment?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.04.2021 15:51
As an asset class, real estate should be a part of every balanced investment portfolio. That's because real estate investments generally have a low correlation to stocks, can offer lower risk, and provide greater diversification.Today about 65% of Americans own a home, but that means that tens of millions of Americans have no exposure to real estate. Making matters worse, becoming a homeowner today is harder than in previous generations, with 1 in 5 millennials believing they will never be able to afford a home. Is there a way to get exposure to the real estate market for as little as $100?Residential real estate market trendFrom the chart below, we can see that the residential real estate market continues to climb and the median price of houses sold in the US is near recent all-time highs of $347,500. Even though mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the appreciation of prices in certain pockets of the country are making many cities and areas simply unaffordable for most. Things look much the same for industrial, commercial, agricultural, and most other specialized real estate subsectors.how can you invest in real estate through the stock marketThe stock markets offer three different ways you can invest in real estate, and today we will be looking at three of them: REITs, ETNs, and ETFs.A REIT is a real estate investment trust and it generally owns, manages, and/or finances income-producing real estate assets. REITs are generally highly liquid (trading like stocks) and are known to produce steady income through dividends as opposed to focusing on capital appreciation.There are hundreds of REITs, with the most popular focused on retail, residential, healthcare, office, and mortgages. Having REIT status enables those companies to avoid paying taxes at the corporate level as taxes are paid by the investors when they receive distributions of income in the form of dividends.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!A real estate ETN is unsecured debt of real estate assets, essentially a type of bond with a maturity date (but without interest payments). ETNs do not provide ownership of the underlying assets, but their performance is directly correlated to the performance of those assets.Investors need to be wary that they can lose all of their ETN investment if the underlying debt goes into default. They also face closure risk if the issuer closes the ETN before maturity by paying the prevailing price in the market (potentially creating a loss for the investor). Despite these risks, some investors prefer ETNs because of the tax treatment for long-term ETN holdings.A real estate ETF is the same as any ETF, being a basket of securities in the real estate sector that can be bought and sold on the stock market. Real estate ETFs often focus on a collection of REITs, offering investors a way to diversify their real estate bets without the torture of researching hundreds of REITs. REIT ETFs offer investors to earn dividend income like REITS while also benefiting from higher diversification and greater market liquidity, which are the hallmarks of all ETFs.  what makes a good reit etf?First, you need to decide if you want a mortgage or equity REITs, as well as if you are looking for an objective-specific REIT (like storage facilities) or something more broad and big-picture (like residential real estate). Your REIT ETF should also have a good amount of assets under management in order to keep expense ratios down, and always check to see if the ETF you are interested in has sufficient liquidity.The charts below show you the performance of the three largest real estate ETFs. Each of these ETFs have over $5 billion of assets, are highly liquid, and a slightly different focus in either the index they track or the real estate assets they are comprised of.Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (NYSEARCA: VNQ)Vanguard focuses on US equity REITS with a small allocation to specialized REITS and real estate firms.iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: IYR)The iShares REIT, above, follows the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, whereas Schwab’s REIT ETF (below) follows the smaller Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index. Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHH)For those of you that get my daily BAN Hotlist, you will know that real estate triggered a signal more than a month ago indicating the sector to be in an uptrend. Real estate continues to be a top-performing sector, with all three of the biggest ETFs gaining more than 15% so far in 2021. In fact, more than 90% of all real estate ETFs have outperformed the S&P500 this year. When you add in the fact that some of the REIT ETFs are also producing annual dividend rates as high as 7-8%, it becomes clear that real estate ETFs should be part of your portfolio.The strongest sectors are going to continue to be the best performers over time.  Being able to identify and trade these sectors is key to being able to efficiently target profits.  You can learn more about the BAN strategy and how to identify and trade better sector setups by registering for our FREE step-by-step guide. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts.More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Happy Trading!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Calm Down, It‘s a Shallow Gold Correction

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.04.2021 17:55
Stocks keep pushing higher after a day of indecision yesterday, and the signals are largely still very constructively aligned behind another upswing. Yes, stocks are moving overall up as we approach the Fed statement and press conference. It‘s the precious metals that are on the defensive – a fact I had been writing about both on Monday and Tuesday, as well as tweeting out extensively before leaving for the dentists‘ - I wish that visit was both easier and took less time, and I could prepare a longer analysis for you today instead.Let‘s talk today‘s moves and charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe sectoral composition of the SPX upswing, isn‘t exactly strongest, but that‘s no obstacle to the unfolding move higher. A measured one, prone to brief and shallow intraday pullbacks whose upward bias can‘t be denied though. That‘s the path of least resistance, and I do like also both smallcaps and emerging markets.Gold Before the Opening BellThe outlook for gold deteriorated during the second half of yesterday‘s trading as copper gave up some of its gains while long-dated Treasuries plunged. And overnight, gold felt obliged to fill the void, and went $10 down.Precious Metals in the NowThe situation is far from bleak – gold is nibbling at the bearish gap, but it‘s the miners that are providing more than a glimmer of hope. And as silver is losing altitude (short-term painful but of little consequence given how great a future awaits the white metal shortly), we‘re witnessing short-term rebalancing in the precious metals sector. Namely since long-dated yields have barely moved thus far and copper almost erased its overnight losses already.SummaryThe S&P 500 keeps pushing for new all time highs, and today‘s Fed isn‘t likely to change that materially. No, I‘m not looking for them making any noises about taking away the punch bowl.Gold‘s downswing would likely prove short-lived, and miners would be pulling the PMs sector ahead again. Once the sector stabilizes in both time and price, silver would catch up again. Let‘s see how successful the Fed is today in selling the transitory inflation story and defending Treasuries, really.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Intraday Market Analysis – Bearish Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.04.2021 08:21
USDCHF breaks below consolidation rangeThe US dollar remains subdued as the Fed offers no signs of tapering.After falling below the key level at 0.9220, the bearish MA cross on the daily time frame may keep buyers at bay. Their failure to lift offers around 0.9180 despite a week-long consolidation strongly suggests that sellers are in control.Any rebound was seen as an opportunity to join the downward movement. A close below 0.9115 could render the greenback vulnerable.0.9040 would be the next target should there be a new round of sell-off.AUDUSD tests double topThe Australian dollar shrugged off March’s weaker-than-expected CPI as risk appetite grew.The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 0.7820, the origin of last month’s sell-off. However, the Aussie has established a solid base above 0.7700.As the RSI bounces back into the neutral area from the sub-30 level, the bullish momentum from 0.7725 is a sign of buying the dip.A breakout above 0.7815 may trigger a runaway rally to 0.7950, a prerequisite to resuming the fourteen-month-long uptrend.XAGUSD gathers bullish momentumSilver strengthens as the US dollar’s sell-off continues after the Fed’s cautious tone on inflation. The precious metal has come to rest after reaching the major resistance (26.60) on the daily chart.The bullish MA cross is an indication of strong buying interest. A breakout above that resistance would confirm the bullish bias and send the price to 28.20.On the hourly chart, sentiment remains upbeat as long as the price action stays above 25.70.A bearish breakout could extend the correction towards 25.20.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Silver, Lies have short legs

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.04.2021 14:26
Now, how do these men in charge manipulate the markets precisely? Our findings show that one can see almost infinite creativity to manipulate the investor. You hear endless stories about the use of Silver in green energies. Fact is that we have only 2% of battery-used vehicles in place in the auto industry. Only 5% of green energy based on solar panels using Silver is at present opposing 95% of traditional energy production. So we are talking about long-term projections that are already reflected in the current price speculation.When it comes to industrial use, numbers are more transparent. Still, few see the cycle push back. As soon as silver prices rise, the industry walks away from intense Silver usage. Rather it economizes or uses alternative ways to produce their merchandise. Here we have a near self-regulative counter mechanism from the influences of investor-driven price spikes kept Silver mostly range-bound.What is recently often spoken about is spoofing.While it is true that this method of price speculation, a way where laddering prices and volume distribution manipulate order presentation into the depth of bid and ask, can drive prices artificially, this way of market manipulation is affecting markets only short-term. Meaning you might have found yourself in the less liquid times of the day feeling awkward trading since the bid-ask spread behavior is uncommon. And yes, this can affect stop levels and cause difficulties for order execution.Nevertheless, the significant picture, the long-term picture of monthly and annual charts, is nearly unaffected. These manipulation techniques merely aim to get investor psychology out of balance. Lies have short legs meaning they run themselves out. No one can manipulate a market as deep as the Silver market over extended time frames to the extent that the wealth distribution we are talking about and where your purchase of physical Silver can make the difference of ending up with hyper-inflated currency near worthless or an early stance right now accumulation commodity value that is sustainable for the long term both on the preserving of wealth and creation of wealth.Accept the presence of these short-term lies and liars. Walk steadfastly through this commotion undisturbed with one’s psyche to follow one’s plan. Accumulate repeatedly small amounts of Silver on market dips.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver, Taking Profits:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 29th, 2021.The daily chart clearly shows that despite many efforts of trying to keep Silver prices low, Silver has advanced twelve percent – a substantial move within four weeks.This warranted us to take partial profits on the overall exposure we created within these weeks (see our last week’s chartbook release for more details). While we see prices continue to rise within the upward green channel, our approach is a conservative one, and with the possibility to retrace to US$25, it seems prudent to take some profits off the table. All our entries and exits are posted in real time on our free Telegram channel.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Always be prepared:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021.A different view from a larger time frame shows that there is a possibility that prices might retrace as far as US$25. We are less focused on what prices might be doing in their highest likelihood. Instead, we take on the extra work to be prepared for any eventuality. This to never find ourselves being surprised by the market. Having a plan for any eventuality allows us to follow price along, and if a price or time picture matches our prepared plans, we execute.We identified the slightly higher probability of prices to advance immediately since we overcame a distribution zone marked with a dark green horizontal line, which now serves as support.Nevertheless, US$25 works like a magnet from what we coined the “beauty principle” and, as such, would be an excellent opportunity for reentry should the market decline to a supply zone of US$24.75 to US$25.27 (see turquoise circle).Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver, Lies have short legs:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021. bLooking at the weekly chart above, we find prices trading above the point of control (POC) in yellow at US$24.21. This is the core volume node from a volume transaction perspective. Coupled with the harmonious advance and retracement percentage patterns, we find the larger picture bullish and intact. Unharmed of any manipulation tactics that could deter the longer-term picture.In professions where the complex language for relatively simple procedures is used to make these procedures nearly impossible to be transparent, these rules are created to extract participants’ money. While in typical law interpretations, the motive has limited application for sentencing in the regulative markets, the motive is the distinguishing factor of right or wrong. This fact alone should tell one that small investors have the short end in this game. Accepting the realities of being the underdog versus trying to fight it and taking the game and its rules for what it is and still developing systems and edges to come out as a consistent winner is more effective than complaint about injustices. There is always a way… lies have short legs, and the truth will always beat those who only marginally and temporarily get the upper hand briefly at best.Silver, Lies have short legs:The market game is rigged. Which one isn’t? But you can learn the rules and beat them at their own game. The market isn’t the casino where the rules make certain you lose.It is possible to be a consistent winner. You can still find your niche in the market. Yes, you have to improve your performance and stack your odds even more, but you can certainly be on the up and up. Do not be discouraged but instead inspired by the hurdles the market holds for you in-store, and there are plenty. This sport isn’t for the faint-hearted, but the rewards compensate for the hardships more than enough.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 22nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Enough Consolidation Already!

Enough Consolidation Already!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.04.2021 15:43
Stocks are readying another push higher, and not just on the heels of the still accomodative Fed. The Fed won‘t simply remove the punch bowl, let alone discuss removing it, and will keep repeating the transitory inflation mantra ad nauseam. The ingredients are in place for a continued upswing in stocks and commodities. Look for nominal yields to continue rising, and my hunch is that won‘t be enough to turn the dollar around. We‘re about to experience continuously rising inflation expectations, rising nominal yields, and declining dollar:(…) When even Larry Summers starts talking the dangers of an inflationary wave, things are really likely getting serious down the road. (…) we‘re in the decade of precious metals and commodities super bull runs – and these are well underway. The debasement of fiat currencies against real assets is set to continue, and will accelerate given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support already and ahead – sorry dollar bulls, the greenback declines are resuming – just look at the yen and yields nodding to the metals upswing.And the emerging markets are embracing the unfolding currency moves – they are rising with more vigor than the Russell 2000 lately. Little wonder for they are farther from their prior highs than the smallcaps. When it comes to S&P 500 sectors, yesterday brought us a rare rotation out of tech while the heavyweights still eked out minor gains – and that rotation is as telling a sign of a risk on sentiment returning as much as the credit market performance is.The key more in the gold sector was in the miners, whose continued resilience is a good omen. In other words, what a recovery from the daily setback I covered amply between the regular trading sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Enriching the examination with copper and yen performance, let alone real yields, leads to a universally bullish verdict on the precious metals upcoming price path.What‘s not to love about this reflation before inflation starts to bite noticeably more? Forget about those pesky commodities and my incessant bullish calls within the sector too…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookStocks are merely gathering strength before another upswing. Enough consolidation already, seems to be the rallying cry here.Credit MarketsA strong sign of risk-on returning here – high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) clearly outperformed investment grade ones (LQD ETF), and these mirrorer the long-dated Treasuries performance.Technology and FinancialsAnother proof of risk-on is in both the technology performance disregarding $NYFANG holding ground, and in the Dow Jones Industrial Average weakness. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials (XLF ETF) are having a field day, and as will be apparent from today‘s oil analysis, energy (XLE ETF) is a great pick as well.Gold, Silver and MinersGold caught a bid, and refused to decline intraday, but the miners scored gains – that‘s as bullish as it gets. It might seem disappointing in light of nominal yields not going anywhere, but only until you examine the great copper performance.Gold‘s volume hints at accumulation within this flag-approximating consolidation, where the next upswing would be ushered in by the miners. Note how silver gave up prior day‘s gains, and remains ready to join strongly next.Crude OilOil is in an upswing mode, and the bullish spirits are confirmed by the oil sector ($XOI) moves. The multiweek consolidation is in its closing stages.SummaryThe S&P 500 keeps pushing for new all time highs, and remain well positioned to close there any day now, especially since the credit markets favor risk on, and the defensives underperformance concurs.Gold and miners are ready for another upswing, and the commodities performance, inflation expectations and nominal yields trajectory favor that. The inability of the sellers to push prices below $1,760 speaks volumes.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.04.2021 16:20
The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged. However, the lack of any action amid economic recovery is dovish – good news for gold.On Wednesday (Apr. 28), the FOMC has published its newest statement on monetary policy . The statement wasn’t significantly altered. The main change is that the Fed has noticed the progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, and that, in consequence, the economic outlook has improved.Previously, the US central bank said that indicators of economic activity and employment “have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak”, while now these indicators “have strengthened”, while “the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement”. So, the Fed acknowledged the fact that the economy has significantly recovered .Similarly, the US central bank is no longer considering the epidemic as posing “considerable” risks to the economic outlook. Instead, the pandemic “continues to weigh on the economy, and risks to the economic outlook remain”. It means that the Fed has become more optimistic and does not see risks as considerable any longer. This is bad for the price of gold although it’s not a very surprising modification, given the progress in vaccinations. However, no hawkish actions will follow, so any bearish impact for gold should be limited.Another important alteration is that inflation no longer “continues to run below 2 percent”, but it “has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors”. This would be normally a hawkish change with bearish implications for gold. But the Fed doesn’t worry about inflation and is not going to hike the federal funds rate anytime soon, even when inflation remains above the target for some time. As Powell pointed out, “the economy is a long way from our goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.” Thus, gold bulls may sleep peacefully .Implications for GoldIndeed, they can relax with Mr. Powell on guard. The Fed Chair has reiterated during his press conference that the US central bank is not going to tighten its dovish stance and reduce the quantitative easing:It’s not time to start talking about tapering. We'll let the public know well in advance. It will take some time before we see substantial further progress. We had one great jobs report. It is not enough to start talking about tapering. We'll need to see more data.Uncle Jay and his bedtime stories… about inflation that is only “transitory”. Once upon a time,the PCE inflation [is] expected to move above 2% in the near term. But these one-time increases in prices are likely to have only transitory effects on inflation.Well, sure. Nonetheless, this is the favorite story of central bankers all over the world told to naive citizens. Just wait for the April inflation readings – they will be something! Of course, it is going to be too early to declare persistently higher inflation, but I’m afraid that the Fed may be too carefree about such a possibility.So, in the aftermath of the generally dovish FOMC meeting, the dollar slid yesterday, while the price of gold went up . Gold continued its recovery from the March bottom, as depicted in the chart below. This makes sense: after all, the Fed reiterated that it would maintain its current ultra easy stance for the foreseeable future, despite the fact of acknowledged improved economic outlook.In other words, the Fed’s inaction made the US central bank more dovish given the better economic outlook and higher inflation. The statement’s language about the coronavirus and the economy was more optimistic, but inflation was considered to be transitory and no hawkish actions were signaled. So, the recent FOMC meeting should be positive for the gold prices from the fundamental point of view , although gold may continue its recent, generally lackluster performance for a while. Of course, the expansion of Fed’s accommodative monetary policy would be much better for the yellow metal, but the lack of any hawkish signals could still clean the room for gold for further upward moves.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – Extended Rally - 30.04.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.04.2021 08:40
USOIL speeds up runaway rallyWTI crude oil gained momentum after EIA data showed a sharp reduction in US inventories.The bullish momentum has accelerated following a breakout above the intermediate resistance level at 64.3. The previous high at 66.40 would be next as sentiment turns around.There is limited risk to the downside as the RSI shows a double top in the overbought area. The 20-hour moving average has acted as support and may do so in case of another retracement.Failing that, 63.60 would be the second line of defense.NAS 100 meets tough resistanceStronger-than-expected quarterly results lift market optimism as the earnings season is in full swing.The index has been struggling to keep its head above 14070 after it resumed the uptrend above February’s high at 13900. The RSI’s repeated incursions in the overbought area are a sign of exhaustion in the supply zone.A bearish breakout below 13880 suggests a lack of conviction so far from the buy-side.13720 between the 20 and 30-day moving averages on the daily chart would be a critical support to monitor.USDCAD rebounds briefly after sell-offThe US dollar struggles as core personal consumption expenditures fell short of expectations. After falling below the short-term support at 1.2370 the greenback has come under increasing pressure.An oversold RSI may prompt sellers to take profit, offering the pair a chance to claw back some losses. Though the price action remains vulnerable to the downside. 1.2420 is a major resistance that would cap any velleity to rebound.1.2200 would be the next target when selling pressure picks up again.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.04.2021 15:45
Gold started its decline without anyone’s assistance. And when the USDX takes off, that downhill tumble can only increase.The USDX declines and the precious metals sit by idly, twiddling their thumbs. If they had the strength that’s being talked about, they should be soaring by now, or getting ready to. So, what’s their problem?In the previous days, I discussed the signals coming from the precious metals market or for the precious metals market, as they kept on emerging, and we just received yet another round of indications. And yes, they also confirm the bearish outlook for the following weeks - or a few months.Let’s start by looking at the USD Index.On the above chart you can see that this week, the USD Index broke to new monthly lows. And you can also see that gold didn’t move to a new monthly high. In fact, it was not even close to doing so – it just closed the day below $1,770. This is a clearly bearish sign for gold.And what about the USD Index?It’s making a second attempt to break below its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Will it be successful? It might be, but… Another support level is just around the corner. Perhaps the proximity to the rising support line based on the January and February lows was actually enough to trigger the rebound yesterday. In this case, the bottom in the USDX is already in. But, we’ll know with much greater certainty when the USDX finally breaks above the declining resistance line and then confirms this breakout.On the above 4-hour USD Index chart we see that the previous short-term breakout was invalidated, which triggered a substantial sell-off, but… Whatever was likely to happen based on this invalidation seems to have already happened. And it seems that we’re about to see another attempt to break higher. Will the USD Index be successful this time? That’s quite likely, but that’s not the most important thing from the precious metals investors’ and traders’ point of view.PMs Play the Fiddle While USDX BurnsThe key thing is that during the recent declines in the USDX (and during the move to new highs in case of the general stock market), gold , silver, and mining stocks didn’t soar. They “should have” if the situation was normal or bullish. They declined instead, which means it’s highly likely that even if the USD Index doesn’t break out now (but a bit later), the decline in the PMs will not be avoided but only delayed.In fact, to be more precise, it’s unlikely to be delayed as well – what might be delayed is the increase in the pace at which gold, silver, and miners are about to slide. After all, gold and gold stocks are already moving lower (while silver is trading sideways).By the way, silver’s lack of movement recently is perfectly normal in the early stage of a decline – the white metal tends to catch up big-time in the final part of a given move.On the above gold chart, you can clearly see how gold moved back up to its rising short-term resistance line this week, and – instead of invalidating the breakdown – it bounced from it and declined once again. This is what verifications of breakdowns look like.Also, let’s keep in mind that the situation now seems to be a mirror image of what we saw in April – June 2020, and at the same time it’s somewhat similar to what we saw at the beginning of the year. You can see the former (the rectangles are identical) on the above chart, and you can see the similarity to the early January action below.Just as was the case in early January, we first saw a pause – a rebound – and the decline continued only thereafter. It seems that the Jan. 7, 2021 price action is quite similar to what we saw yesterday (Apr. 29). Moreover, please note that both happened just above the declining blue support line. It was the final pause before the move higher was invalidated.Having said the above, let’s move to gold stocks:Miners: GDX and GDXJ ETFsIn yesterday’s analysis, I described the GDX’s previous performance in the following way:Gold stocks’ intraday recovery that we saw yesterday may seem profound, but not if we consider what happened in the USD Index and the general stock market. The former declined substantially while the latter was close to its all-time highs. This is a combination of factors that “should have” made gold miners move to new highs – and a daily gain of less than half percent is a sign of weakness, not strength.In today’s pre-market trading the S&P 500 futures moved to new highs, and gold miners showed gains in the London trading, but they are nothing to write home about – and more importantly, nothing that would change the bearish forecast for gold I described more broadly previously .The bearish interpretation of the previous “strength” turned out to have been correct – the GDX ETF declined yesterday.The decline was even more visible and important in the case of the GDXJ ETF, where we have trading positions.This ETF for junior gold and silver miners ( gold miners have much bigger weight in it, though) moved and closed back below its March 2021 highs.Consequently, we have a situation in which:The USD Index is about to reverse and rally.Gold signals that it just can’t wait for the USD Index to rally, and it’s already declining (the pace at which it declines is likely to greatly increase once the USD Index takes off).Gold miners behave relatively normally, which in this case means that they are declining more than gold does (GLD just closed 1.14% below the highest daily close of April, while the GDX just closed 5.59% below the highest daily close of April). Besides, their recent move back to the May 2020 highs and the subsequent decline further increases the odds that the decline is going to shape the right shoulder of a huge head and shoulders formation with extremely bearish implications (once completed).GDXJ is underperforming GDX just as I’ve been expecting it to. While GDX declined by 5.59% so far (in terms of the closing prices), GDXJ declined by 5.67%. This might seem an unimportant level of underperformance, but the perspective changes once one realizes that GDXJ is more correlated with the general stock market than GDX is. Consequently, GDXJ should be showing strength here, and it isn’t. If stocks don’t decline, GDXJ is likely to underperform by just a bit, but when (not if) stocks slide, GDXJ is likely to plunge visibly more than GDX.The above combination tells me that we are very well positioned in case of our short position in the GDXJ.Besides, as an analytical cherry on the bearish GDXJ cake, please note that we just saw a sell signal from the MACD indicator (lower part of the chart) while it was visibly above 0, and after a relatively big short-term rally. We saw this kind of performance only several times in the previous year, and it meant declines in almost all cases. We saw it only once before this year – in early January, and a sizable decline followed.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

One More Day of Hesitation?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.04.2021 16:18
Stocks reached for new ATHs but got slammed down only to recover next. VIX doesn‘t provide a picture of calmness really even though the put/call ratio seems still uneventful, and credit markets leaning risk-on. The Fed naturally didn‘t draw any hawkish cards on Wednesday to disconcert the markets, yet they‘re throwing a fit a day later, starting from equities, bonds, all the way to precious metals.One would have said that as:(…) The Fed won‘t simply remove the punch bowl, let alone discuss removing it, and will keep repeating the transitory inflation mantra ad nauseam. The ingredients are in place for a continued upswing in stocks and commodities. But stocks are questioning that in today‘s premarket session, in spite of nominal yields not exerting a real pressure on the sensitive S&P 500 sectors. Technology has recovered from an intraday plunge, and semiconductors (XSD ETF) didn‘t lead lower in any way. The defensives had a good day really while the usual suspects (value, cyclicals) benefiting from rising yields, did great – even though long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF) almost closed the bearish gap.Treasuries though took their toll upon gold – the nominal yield going up did bite, even though inflation expectations rose in tandem, and not at all hesitantly. It‘s as if the market place didn‘t deem inflation at the moment too high, i.e. as if real rates were actually rising (those believing so are in for a surprise). Personally, I find it odd that the transitory inflation story is still getting some ear, and wonder when last have the lumber, oil, copper, iron, nickel, zinc, corn, soybean (and soon also coffee) prices been checked.Dollar bulls, remember:(…) we‘re in the decade of precious metals and commodities super bull runs – and these are well underway. The debasement of fiat currencies against real assets is set to continue, and will accelerate given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support already and ahead – sorry dollar bulls, the greenback declines are resuming.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookStocks made the move, were rebuffed, and returned. Some backing and filling would be hardly surprising though.Technology and FinancialsTechnology recovered from steep intraday losses, and their chart doesn‘t look to be breaking down. $NYFANG isn‘t in a decline mode, and your typical defensive sectors scored strong gains yesterday. And as the sectors usually embracing rising rates did well, chances are yesterday‘s S&P 500 setback would shortly be forgotten.Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations are rising again, and so do the Treasury yields. These aren‘t frontrunning expectations by much, but the brief respite in the bond market surely seems to be about over.Gold, Silver and MinersGold yet again caught a bid, and recovered a good portion of intraday losses. The buyers stepped in but given the lull in the nominal yields drawing to its end, seeing gold mirroring the rise in yields is disconcerting. On the other hand, copper consolidated on the day, and thus didn‘t counter the Treasuries effect.While gold is under short-term pressure and well bid, miners had a worse day, and didn‘t outperform the yellow metal. It‘s only within GDX that the chart is more optimistic – not within HUI. Talking silver, it‘s actually good the metal didn‘t move at all on the day – in spite of the challenging setup, the precious metals appear to be making a low.SummaryThe S&P 500 is still meeting headwinds, remaining vulnerable to more backing and filling. The bullish signs are still there, but not getting all the short-term follow through (HYG, IWM, EEM), and it looks that closing at new ATHs won‘t happen today. Patience.Gold and miners are likely making a bottom here, in spite of inconclusive HUI performance. Silver resilience along with base metals is tipping the scales towards maintaining even the very short-term bullish outlook – let alone the medium-term one. The next upswing is approaching.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Gold Sings a “Hot N Cold” Song

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.04.2021 18:18
Although spring has begun, we can still find ourselves in winter, or even summer. Gold may benefit from such a seasonal aberration.Oh, how wonderful, spring has finally started, hasn’t it? We have April, after all. Well, in calendar terms, it’s indeed spring, but economically it can be summer already or still the beginning of winter. How so? I refer here to Kondratiev cycles (also known as Kondratieff cycles or Kondratyev cycles).As a reminder, Nikolai Kondratiev was a Russian economist who noted in the 1920s that capitalist economies experience long super-cycles, lasting 40-60 years (yup, it’s not a very precise concept). His idea was that capitalism was not on an inevitable path to destruction, but that it was rather sustainable and cyclical in nature. Stalin didn’t like this conclusion and ordered a prison sentence and, later, an execution for Kondratiev. And you thought that being an economist is a boring and safe profession!The Kondratiev cycles, also called waves, are composed of a few phases, similar to the seasons of the year. In 2018, I defined them as follows:Spring : economic upswing, technological innovation which drives productivity, low inflation , bull market in stocks, low level of confidence (winter’s legacy).Summer : economic slowdowns combined with high inflation and bear market in stocks, this phase often ends in conflicts.Autumn : the plateau phase characterized by speculative fever, economic growth fueled by debt, disinflation and high level of confidence.Winter : a phase when the excess capacity is reduced by deflation and economic depression, debt is repaid or repudiated. There is a stock market crash and high unemployment rate , social conflicts arise.However, other economists define these phases in a slightly different manner. For them, spring is an inflationary growth phase, summer is a period of stagflation (inflationary recession ), autumn a deflationary growth period, while winter is a time of deflationary depression.So, which phase are we in? That’s a very good question. After all, the whole concept of Kondratiev cycles is somewhat vague, so it’s not easy to be precise. But some experts believe that we are likely in the very early part of the winter after a very long autumn . Indeed, there are some important arguments supporting such a view.First, we have been experiencing a long period of disinflation (and later just low inflation), a decline in the bond yields , and economic growth fueled by debt. I refer here to the time from the end of the Great Recession until the Covid-19 pandemic , but one can argue that autumn lasted since the early 1980s, when both interest rates and inflation peaked, as the chart below shows.Second, winter is believed to be a depression phase with stock and debt markets collapsing, but with commodity prices increasing. And this is exactly what we are observing right now. I refer here to the rally in several commodity prices. This is at least partially caused by the disruption in the supply chains amid the epidemic in the U.S. and worldwide pandemic, but if the bull market in commodities sets in for good, this could be a negative harbinger for the stock market. After all, more expensive raw materials eat into corporate profits.Third, winter is thought of as a period that tears the social fabric of society and deepens the inequalities. The data is limited, but the coronavirus crisis has been one of the most unequal in modern U.S. history, as its costs have been borne disproportionately by the poorer parts of society that have been unable to work online.So, “winter is coming” may be a belated warning, as winter could have already begun. Later during this period, we could see bankruptcies of firms and financial institutions, and even some governments, as a delayed consequences of the coronavirus crisis. This is bad news for the whole of Westeros and its economy, but good for gold. Investors who don’t like the cold should grab a golden blanket to hedge them from the winter.However, in 2018, I expressed the opinion that summer may come in the 2020s, as the debts are rising and the inflationary pressure is growing:As the global economy recovered and now expands, inflation is low, while stocks still rally, we enjoy spring. This is why gold has remained in a broad sideways trend in the last few years. However, as we are on the edge of the next technological revolution, confidence is finally rising and there are worries about higher prices, and we could enter the summer phase in the not-so-distant future.And I still believe that my opinion makes sense. Indeed, after the global financial crisis of 2007-9, we have seen several spring features: low inflation, a bull market in stocks, and a low level of confidence (after all, there was “the most hated rally in the stock market”), which was a legacy of winter, i.e., the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the following economic crisis .And summer is generally a period of stagflation, which is exactly what I’m expecting. You see, after a strong economic recovery in the nearest quarters, the U.S. economy is likely to return to a mediocre pace of economic growth, but with much higher inflation. After all, there is strong monetary and fiscal stimulation ongoing right now, another feature of summer. Meanwhile, winter is generally a deflationary period, so the specter of inflation rather suggests that summer may be coming and investors should hedge themselves against waves of gold.Luckily, gold offers its protection not only against winters, but also against summers . Indeed, gold performs the worst during autumns, when there is disinflation, like in the 1980s and the 1990s, and the best during winters (due to the economic crisis – remember the 2000s?) and the summers (due to high inflation – remember the 1970s?).Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Intraday Market Analysis – Psychological Level

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.05.2021 08:52
EURUSD retraces to major supportThe euro pulled back after the block’s CPI dropped to 0.8% in April. Though the pair maintains its bullish trajectory from the daily chart’s perspective, a healthy pullback seems necessary for buyers to catch up after it rose back above the last leg of sell-off (1.1990).With an RSI deep in the oversold area, the psychological level of 1.2000 near the 20-day moving average would be a critical level to test buyers’ confidence.The rally would only resume if the euro climbs back to the previous high at 1.2150,GBPJPY exhibits bearish MA crossThe Japanese yen gained traction after the unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. The pound falls back in search of the next support as the yen recoups losses across the board.The RSI’s double top in the overbought area was an indication of exhaustion past the key resistance at 152.00. A breakout below 151.00 would confirm the bearish MA cross.The next level to find potential buying interest would be around 150.10. On the upside, the long side will need to lift 152.10 to resume the U-turn.SPX 500 tests resistance-turned-supportThe S&P 500 consolidates recent gains as rebounding corporate profits raise investors’ risk appetite. Buyers are striving to hold above 4180 after they cleared the former supply zone.A rally above 4219 would open the path to a new high above 4300. However, a slide below could dent the short-term fever and trigger profit-taking.4140, the lower band of the previous consolidation range would be a major support to monitor.Its breach could lead to a deeper correction towards the rising trendline (4050) on the daily chart.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Bitcoin – Fail, Learn, Improve

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.05.2021 10:33
The good news is: We still see Bitcoin to be the number one asset class in your wealth preservation portfolio. And this with a good chance to see higher prices in the near future.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Whatever works:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3rd, 2021.One healthy way for progress is to walk the road less traveled by and be independent of the good opinion of others. Stacking odds means backtesting any and all ways to find probabilities in your favor to stack your odds against the market. In Bitcoin, we found a high likelihood in specific trading patterns. The daily chart isn’t atypical for Bitcoin to produce the pointed-out price movement series (A, B, C, D, E) in sequence. You will find in comparing our lines not only similarities in percentage moves but also steepness of angles. In this case, our future projection is noteworthy because the distance between points C and D in the right side of the chart is much shorter than in the same white-lined picture to the left. This means a minor retracement – meaning a more aggressive step in of the bulls.What is also essential is that Bitcoin might seem to be ranging and indeed has large retracements but is trading in a wide range up-sloping directional channel (yellow lines), which further indicates strength. We conclude that a progression of price to the upside has a higher likelihood than downward movement and that a taking out of all-time highs is a possibility in store.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Don’t trust your feelings:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3rd, 2021.Another glance at the daily chart illustrates another principle we follow: “Don’t trust your feelings.” The linear regression channel indicates short-term drift elements to the sideways/downside. When Bitcoin isn’t advancing, it has temporary sideways periods of a few days where stops are taken out. Observing the market these days, one has the feeling of continuous downward movement. These brief periods resolve when the overall “feel consensus” is discouraged, in an upward jolt trend day.Looking at “a,” you find such a drift along the midline of the regression channel. We might see a few days following such a movement (similar to the past), but we advise you to look out for low-risk long entry opportunities not to miss a possible next steep leg up. The higher probability nevertheless is an immediate rise of price towards all-time highs as indicated in the prior chart. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Last week´s entry:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 26th, 2021.We posted this entry chart in our last week’s chartbook publication, and the trade matured nicely through the previous week’s price advances from our entry at US$49,000 near to currently US$58,000. This leads us to the more significant larger weekly time frame observation.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, Fail, Learn, Improve:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of May 3rd, 2021.Here the picture has significantly changed. A bullish engulfing pattern marked within the white square has turned the larger time frame more bullish. This candlestick price pattern states nothing more than all bear traders within the week of the red candle have now been proven wrong. They have either been stopped out or are underwater now. A reversal pattern that gives the bull traders an edge.More importantly, price trades now above a meaningful supply zone marked in yellow from a volume node transactional analysis point of view.We are confident that shortly all-time highs will be tested. A spot where we take partial profits and expect follow-through to new all-time highs.Bitcoin – Fail, Learn, Improve:In a world changing more rapidly than ever since the start of the industrial revolution, one needs to keep on one’s toes if one wants to be ahead of the curve and bet one’s money on perceptions about the future. Statistical edges in isolation or a purely fundamental approach are just not enough. A flexible mind is required most to accept failure and an immediate process to learn from one’s mistakes and implement the gained wisdom, improving and adjusting one’s bets. The times of “set it and forget it” is from a past that does not equal the future. “Adapt or die” comes to mind. And as much as this might seem extreme, markets are very unforgiving, and wealth preservation is key to ensure in part a happy future for yourself and your loved ones. Each extra step taken might create that additional edge necessary to beat the game of finance to your advantage.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 3rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Taper Smoke and Mirrors

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.05.2021 15:03
Once in a while, stocks closed in red – is that a reversal or the most the bears could hope for these days? Thursday‘s hanging man got its follow through, yet the bulls staged a rebound into the close. Perhaps that‘s as good as the selling pressure gets, for I think the path of least resistance is still higher in S&P 500.If you look at the VIX or the put/call ratio, Friday‘s setback is readily apparent, and stocks seem ripe for an upswing now. Fed‘s Kaplan did its job s with the taper talk, yet I think he played the bad cop part – the Fed will really act ostrich in the face of not so transitory inflation, for as long as the Treasuries market doesn‘t throw a tantrum.And the 10-year yield has been quite well behaved lately, closing at 1.65% only on Friday. The April calm seems to be over, and I‘m looking for the instrument to trade at 1.80% at least at the onset of summer. Then, let‘s see how the September price increases telegraphed by Procter & Gamble influence the offtake – will the price leader be followed by its competitors? That‘s one of the key pieces of the inflation stickiness puzzle – and I think others will follow, and P&G sales and profitability won‘t suffer. The company is on par with Coca Cola when it comes to dividends really.Once there, we would progress further in the reflation cycle when inflation is no longer benign and anchored. We‘re though still quite a way from when the Fed tries to sell rising rates as proof of strengthening economic recovery – once the bond market would get to doubt this story though, it would be game over for its recent tame behavior.Friday‘s retreating Treasuries though didn‘t lift gold, and neither helped miners – it‘s not that inflation expectations would be sending a conflicting signal, as these slightly receded too. Inflation at the moment is probably still too low for the complacent market lulled to sleep by the transitory story, but look for that to change.Once the reality of modern monetary theory driven spending in eternity does result in higher inflation biting into real rates even more, the below quote would need to be updated:(…) It‘s as if the market place didn‘t deem inflation at the moment too high, i.e. as if real rates were actually rising (those believing so are in for a surprise). Personally, I find it odd that the transitory inflation story is still getting some ear, and wonder when last have the lumber, oil, copper, iron, nickel, zinc, corn, soybean (and soon also coffee) prices been checked.The taper story being revealed for a trial baloon that it is, would quickly reverse Friday‘s sharp USDX gains, where particularly the USDJPY segment is worth watching. In the end, the debasement of fiat currencies against real assets would continue, and accelerate as the dollar goes fully onto strategic defensive in 2H 2021 again.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookStocks declined, volume remained elevated – so is this the start of a downswing, or rather its closing stage? In spite of weak smallcaps and emerging markets, it‘s the latter – thanks to the credit markets, including emerging market ones.Credit MarketsIt‘s the high yield corporate bonds intraday recovery that appears key here, for the junk bonds joined the investment grade ones and long-dated Treasuries. The dip is being bought in the credit markets.Technology and FinancialsTechnology recovered from steep intraday losses, and so did $NYFANG. To complete the picture, value stocks were out of the daily favor too.S&P 500 Market BreadthIt‘s not just the advance-decline line or advance-decline volume to pay attention to right now, but the new highs new lows too. All three indicate that we are nearing a local bottom.Gold and Miners Short-TermGold is quite holding up, yet not totally convincingly, especially when miners are examined. This setup screams danger as the retreating nominal yields were ignored on Friday. But...Gold and Miners Long-TermThe copper to 10-year Treasury yield isn‘t breaking lower, and neither is gold. The stage is set for the yellow metal (and silver naturally too) to catch up and start outperforming the commodities, especially in the 2H of 2021. The miners to gold ratio‘s posture is curious to say the least. Is it a fake breakdown along the late Mar lines, or it it attempting to lead lower in earnest? The 2018 and 2019 gyrations are more applicable than the uniquely deflationary corona crash in my view – but the miners need to turn higher and lead relatively shortly to confirm.Crude OilCrude oil quite steeply declined on Friday, but the daily downswing doesn‘t have the characteristics of a reversal. The post-correction pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, and black gold is like to return to scoring gains shortly.BitcoinSuch was the Bitcoin chart on Sunday when I tweeted about this go long opportunity. Since then, prices have risen to almost $59,000 as we speak. The uptrend is reasserting itself, but might take a while longer before the Bollinger Bands‘ upper border is reached.SummaryThe S&P 500 is probably almost done meeting headwinds, and the risk-on trades are likely to return before too long – the top of this bull market is still far away.Gold and miners need to prove themselves – especially the miners. With gold holding $1,760 and miners rebounding, the benefit of the doubt given to the precious metals upswing, would be justified – this precious metals upleg is quite well established already.
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals

USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.05.2021 16:10
The USD Index let out a roar heard across all markets. The king of the financial jungle arrived, along with the greenback’s largest single-day gain.Just as the African landscape sometimes needs to show the strongest of its inhabitants, so does the less remote but equally ferocious financial environment. This time, the USDX seems to have won the fight – its fangs and claws turned out to be the sharpest, and so are the rallies. There is nothing left for gold and its acquaintances than to run through the forest… run.Sometimes, even jackals need to find shelter to lick their wounds in patience, waiting for a better time to come back to fight. However, they will come back eventually – they always do.What About Gold, One of the Jackals?With a triple-top in gold’s stochastic oscillator akin to three warning signs of a nervous breakdown, the yellow metal is still recovering from last week’s crisis of confidence. And with the price action mirroring what we witnessed in early January – right before gold suffered a significant slide – the yellow metal could soon need therapy.Please see below:To explain, while gold’s corrective upswing was slightly bigger than I had anticipated, please note that the length thereof was in tune with the border of the green ellipse I used to mark the likely upside target area. In other words, the recent rally was not a game-changer . The yellow metal’s inability to crack $1,800 highlights the medium-term implications that I’ve been warning about. As a result, it’s become increasingly clear that gold’s recent strength was nothing more than a short-term upswing within a medium-term downtrend.For more on the significance of gold’s stochastic oscillator, I wrote previously:The first sell signal occurred slightly below the 80 level, the second was above it, and the same was the case with the third one.Since back in early 2021, the stochastic indicator moved to new highs – and so far it hasn’t – and since the USD Index might even move slightly lower before finding its short-term bottom, gold could move slightly higher on a temporary basis, before topping. Perhaps (there are no certainties on any market, but this seems quite possible in the near term) it would be the round nature of the $1,800 level and the 300-day moving average that’s very close to it that would trigger a reversal and another massive decline. From the medium-term point of view, another $20 rally doesn’t really matter. It’s the few-hundred-dollar decline that’s likely to follow that really makes the difference.In addition, it seems that gold is moving in a way that’s somewhat similar to what we saw between mid-April 2020 and mid-June 2020. It’s trading sideways below $1,800 but above ~$1,660. Back in 2020, the range of the back-and-forth movement (size of the short-term rallies and declines) was bigger, but the preceding move was also more volatile, so it’s normal to expect smaller short-term volatility this year (at least during this consolidation).Why is this particularly interesting? Because both consolidations (the mid-April 2020 – mid-June 2020 one and the March 2021 – today one) could be the shoulders of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, where the mid-June 2020 – early-March 2021 performance would be the head. The breakdown below the neck level – at about $1,660 – would be extremely bearish in this case because the downside target based on the pattern is created based on the size of the head. The target based on this broad pattern would be at about $1,350 (I marked it with a thin dashed red line on the chart below – you might need to click on it to expand it for this line to become visible). Is this level possible? It is. When gold soared above $2,000, almost nobody thought that it would decline back below its 2011 highs (well, you – my subscribers – did know that). Gold below $1,500 seems unthinkable now, but with rallying long-term rates and soaring USD Index, it could really happen.The Lion - USD Index (USDX)After delivering a ferocious 0.75% rally on Apr. 30 – the greenback’s largest single-day gain since Mar. 4 – the USD Index let out a roar that was heard across all corners of the financial markets. And while gold, silver and mining stocks are still cackling in disobedience – as evidenced by the trios’ decelerating correlations over the last 10 days – every once in a while, the lion has to show the jackals who he is.To explain, as the USD Index’s recent plight elicits whispers of a new order in the currency kingdom, the greenback’s stoic behavior has been misjudged as weakness. And while the vultures circle and prophecies of the USD Index’s demise become louder, the lion is slowly moving to his feet.Case in point: with the zeitgeist forecasting new lows for the greenback, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders are still holding firm. Despite the greenback’s suffering, the immaterial decline in net-long positioning last week was relatively muted and highlights investors’ quiet respect for the U.S. dollar.Please see below: Source: COTMoreover, with prior periods of extreme pessimism followed by monumental rallies in the USD Index, unless ‘this time is different,’ it’s simply a matter of when, not if, the U.S. dollar feasts on the precious metals’ overconfidence.To explain, I wrote previously:When net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest (based on the CoT data) became extremely high in 2014 and 2018, the USD Index recoded two of its sharpest rallies in history. How sharp? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Let’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, without paying attention to any tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer).In short, rallies that followed periods of extreme pessimism include:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114. Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.In addition, let’s keep in mind that the very bullish analogy to the 2018 rally remains intact. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that back in 2018, the USD Index rallied sharply and then corrected back to (roughly) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. And while the current decline is of a much larger magnitude than what we saw in mid-April 2018, the USD Index is still following its June 2018 analogue by declining slightly below another critical Fibonacci retracement – the 61.8% one. Moreover, amid the greenback’s surge on Apr. 30 – which I warned was forthcoming – the USD Index invalidated its breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The bottom line? The sharp reversal is extremely bullish for the U.S. dollar.More importantly, though, when the USD Index resumed its uptrend in June 2018 – marked by the vertical dashed line near the middle of the chart – the measured move higher also coincided with an accelerated drawdown of gold , silver and mining stocks.Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Apr. 21:I marked the situation from 2018 that seems similar to what we see right now with a dashed, horizontal line. Back in 2018, the pullback ended when the USD Index moved to its first Fibonacci classic retracement level (the 38.2% one). In case of the current rally, it seems that another classic retracement worked – the 61.8% one.The very important detail about the June 2018 decline (and bottom) is that while this was the moment after which the USD Index’s started to move higher at a slower pace, it was also the moment after which the precious metals market started to decline faster.At the beginning of the year, I wrote that the precious metals market was likely to decline and that the preceding rally was likely fake. That’s exactly what happened.Right now, I’m writing that the recent rally was also fake (a correction within a medium-term decline) and – even more importantly – it seems likely that the next downswing could take place at a higher pace than what we saw so far this year. And – just as was the case in 2018 – this upcoming (fast) decline is likely to lead to the final bottom in the precious metals sector.As further evidence, I warned on Apr. 30 that the USD Index was ripe for a reversal. And while entering long positions in the USD Index is an appetizing thought, shorting the gold miners offers much more bang for our buck.I wrote (with regard to possible long positions in the USD Index futures):I would be looking to re-enter long positions as soon as the USD Index confirms the breakout above the declining resistance line. At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is already trading back above this line, so the only thing that it needs to do now is to stay there. Still, given today’s pre-market movement, it seems that we might even see an invalidation of the move below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A weekly close above both levels would be very bullish for the short term and a sign for me to get back to the long positions .But – that is all based on the assumption that I would want to have any position in the USDX. And I don’t because I think that having a short position in mining stocks provides a much better risk-to-reward ratio.That’s exactly what we saw – a weekly close above both levels.Adding even more ferocity to the USD Index’s roar, the recent downtrend has not invalidated its long-term breakout. And with the long-term implications taking precedence over the medium- and short-term ones, the USDX’s uptrend remains intact.Please see below:The bottom line?Given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates, and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, with mischievous market participants nipping and clawing at the USD Index’s mane, it’s only a matter of time before the greenback strikes back with a vengeance. And while the precious metals consider the USD Index’s territory up for grabs, the greenback’s pride is unlikely to stay hidden for much longer. As a result, while gold, silver and mining stocks’ gaze across the grassland, the sun has likely set on their recent rallies. However, once the wet season washes away the litany of financial-market imbalances, the eventual bloom will allow the precious metals to grow stronger in the long run.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Will Biden Build Back Better… Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.05.2021 13:22
New spending is coming! And because of that, Biden’s speech to Congress was fundamentally positive for gold.Last week was full of big events. The FOMC released its newest statement on monetary policy meeting, while Powell held the press conference. On the same day, President Joe Biden made his first speech to Congress . Let’s take a look at his words.First of all, Biden laid out his American Jobs Plan , which proposes more than $2 trillion to upgrade US infrastructure and create millions of jobs. No matter that infrastructure spending has no stimulus effect, according to economic research .Second, if you think that $2 trillion is a lot of money, given America’s huge indebtedness, you are clearly wrong. Two trillion is practically nothing and definitely not enough, so Biden proposed another $1.8 trillion American Family Plan in investments and tax credits to provide lower-income and middle-class families with inexpensive childcare.Third, Biden understands that all these expenditures cannot be funded solely by increasing already huge fiscal deficits (see the chart below) and issuing new bonds.So, he proposed a hike in tax rates:It’s time for corporate America and the wealthiest 1% of Americans to pay their fair share. Just pay their fair share (…) We take the top tax bracket for the wealthiest 1% of Americans –those making $400,000 or more – back up to 39.6%.No matter that corporate taxes are implicit taxes on labor and that the current proposals for tax hikes are unlikely to fund the White House’s ambitious plans.Biden also proposed several reforms of the labor market: a 12-week paternal leave for families and an increase of the minimum wage to $15 an hour.So, in short, his speech called for several bold economic policies aiming to increase government spending and strengthen the American welfare state. Sounds good… for gold.Implications for GoldWhat does the Biden speech, and more generally his economic agenda, imply for the precious metals market? Well, it seems that the President cares not only about the workers, but also about the gold bulls. His plan is fundamentally positive for the yellow metal . After all, Biden wants to further increase government spending, which will weaken the long-term pace of economic growth and add to the mammoth pile of the public debt .There are also hints that this massive government spending flowing directly to the citizens could ignite inflation . After all, the US economy has already recovered from the pandemic recession , at least in the GDP terms, as the chart below shows. So, Biden’s economic agenda risks that the economy will overheat igniting inflation.He also adopted a more confrontational stance toward China, which could elevate the geopolitical worries and increase the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold .Another potential benefit is the proposal to raise corporate taxes, which is clearly negative for the US stock market and the greenback . Hence, gold could gain at their expense, especially if we see a pullback in the equity market…Last but not least, the increase in the minimum wage, and other labor market reforms, will not help in a quick employment recovery, so the Fed will maintain its dovish policy for longer. Indeed, we should look at Biden’s message together with the Fed’s signals. Biden proposed trillions of dollars in new spending, while Powell reiterated no hurry to raise interest rates . What a policy mix! We have both easy monetary policy and loose fiscal policy , a golden policy mix , indeed.Gold didn’t react strongly to these events, which is a bit disturbing, but this can be explained by the gains on Wall Street, as investors felt reassured that a financial bonanza would last undisturbed. So, the economic confidence remains high, but if it wanes, especially if inflationary threats come to the surface, gold may perform better.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

SPX Correction Arriving or Not?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.05.2021 16:26
One more day of upside rejection in S&P 500, in what is now quite a long stretch of prices going mostly sideways. As unsteady as VIX seems at the moment, it doesn‘t flash danger of spiking in this data-light week, and neither does the put/call ratio. As I wrote yesterday about the selling pressure, these tight range days accompanied by 30-ish point corrections is as good as it gets when the Fed still has its foot on the accelerate pedal. Yes, you can ignore the Kaplan trial baloon (have you checked when he gets to vote on the FOMC?) that spiked the dollar on Friday but didn‘t put all that a solid floor before long-dated Treasuries as seen in their intraday reversal. Highlighting the key Treasury, inflation and reflation thoughts of yesterday, as these are still here to power stocks higher:(…) the 10-year yield has been quite well behaved lately, closing at 1.65% only on Friday. The April calm seems to be over, and I‘m looking for the instrument to trade at 1.80% at least at the onset of summer. Then, let‘s see how the September price increases telegraphed by Procter & Gamble influence the offtake – will the price leader be followed by its competitors? That‘s one of the key pieces of the inflation stickiness puzzle – and I think others will follow, and P&G sales and profitability won‘t suffer. The company is on par with Coca Cola when it comes to dividends really.Once there, we would progress further in the reflation cycle when inflation is no longer benign and anchored. We‘re though still quite a way from when the Fed tries to sell rising rates as proof of strengthening economic recovery – once the bond market would get to doubt this story though, it would be game over for its recent tame behavior.Gold market enjoyed its fireworks, aided mightily by the silver squeeze run. The inflation theme is getting rightfully increasing attention, and commodities are on the run across the board. Just check yesterday‘s oil analysis or the bullish copper calls of mine. I could just as easily say that copper is the new gold – it has been certainly acting as one over the past many months, yet the yellow metal‘s time in the limelight is about here now. And don‘t forget about silver bring you the best of two worlds – the monetary and industrial applications ones.When it comes to USD/JPY support for the unfolding precious metals upswing, we indeed got the reversal of Friday‘s USD upside:(…) The taper story being revealed for a trial baloon that it is, would quickly reverse Friday‘s sharp USDX gains, where particularly the USDJPY segment is worth watching. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe declining volume tells a story of not enough conviction to go higher or lower – the market remains vulnerable to brief spikes either way such as those seen and covered in both today‘s intraday Stock Trading Signals.Credit MarketsAs inconclusive intraday the corporate credit markets may seem, the pressure to go up is there, regardless of the high yield corporate bonds reversal. Long-dated Treasuries aren‘t standing in the way but it must be noted that these have given up their intraday upswing completely, and opened with no bullish gap.Technology and FinancialsTechnology lost the advantage of higher open, and wasn‘t helped by the poor daily $NYFANG performance. At the same time, value stocks continued higher but gave away a portion of intraday gains. The markets are on edge, and a bigger move this or more likely next week, shouldn‘t come as a surprise.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsThe Russell 2000 turned higher on Monday, and emerging markets seem waiting for more signs of dollar weakness. Overall, the U.S. indices still continue outperforming the international markets.Gold and Miners Short-TermVolume returned into the gold market, and so did miners‘ outperformance. While these didn‘t close anywhere near their mid-Apr highs unlike gold, they had extremely undeperformed on Friday – what happens over the next few sessions would provide clue as to whether strength genuinely returned yesterday.Gold and Miners Long-TermThe copper to 10-year Treasury yield is edging higher again, and the miners to gold ratio strongly rebounded, proving my yesterday‘s point that the real parallels are the 2018 and 2019 gyrations, not the uniquely deflationary corona crash.SummaryThe S&P 500 remains vulnerable to short-term spikes in both directions, but the medium-term picture remains positive – the strong gains since late Mar are being worked off here before another upswingGold and miners proved themselves yesterday, and scored strong gains in a universally supportive array of signals across commodities, Treasuries, and also the USD/JPY daily move. Well worth not retiring the benefit of the doubt given to the precious metals bulls – more gains are in sight.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – NASDAQ In Search Of Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 05.05.2021 08:48
NAS 100 tumbles after exhaustion Tech stocks slip as investors’ bet on a US recovery favors traditional sectors in their asset rotation. The recent peak above 14000 could lead to a pullback as investors may think twice before chasing higher highs. A quadruple top near 14050 and a repeatedly overbought RSI are a sign of exhaustion. After a halt at 13950 a breach below 13720 triggered a sell-off exacerbated by profit-taking. This would add pressure on traders who are still on the long side. 13340 would be the next support level. AUDUSD drops below consolidation range The Australian dollar eased off following the RBA’s commitment to keeping the policy loose for another three years. The pair has so far failed to overcome the supply area at 0.7820 on the daily chart. The two-week-long consolidation suggests a lack of conviction from the long side. A bearish close below the lower band of the current range would trigger a sell-off as buyers try to bail out. 0.7675 could be temporary support.On the upside, 0.7766 is the first hurdle to lift before a recovery could carry on. NZDUSD falls from supply area The New Zealand dollar clawed back some losses after the country’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%. The pair is heading south after having met tense selling pressure near the daily resistance at 0.7300. Strong momentum below 0.7150 then 0.7125 is an indication that buyers are currently out of the picture. 0.7210 may cap a brief rebound after the RSI went into oversold. A fall below 0.7120 could deepen the correction.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Forex majors: short-term and long-term

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 05.05.2021 12:19
EUR/USD: a downswing loomingAt the beginning of the virus hit, EUR/USD was in the zone of 1.10. By the end of 2020, it rose to 1.2350. Since then, it’s been going mostly downwards as the USD is gaining momentum with the recovering US economy. Currently, it trades around 1.20, and if the US economic optimism stays for another month or two, we are likely to see the pair challenge the tactical supports of 1.17 and 1.16.GBP/USD: post-BrexitFrom the depths of 1.20 at the beginning of the pandemic, this pair has been going upwards almost in a straight line to reach 1.42 in February. Since then, it dropped some of the gains and has been floating below 1.40. Pound’s offensive may have stopped due to the accumulating effect of Brexit as the UK is seeing a lower financial dynamic than before. Locally, 1.38 and 1.38 are the supports bears may be aiming at. If these get broken in the coming weeks, it may be a start of a whole new multimonth downswing back to 1.20.EUR/GBP: bouncing upwards or five-year lowsWhile this pair dropped to 0.83 in the first part of 2020, it has been trading around 0.90 in the second part. However, it ceded most of the gains during previous months going down to 0.85 in April. That level turned out to be a tactical low that sent the currency pair into the upside. EUR/USD bounced off that level a month ago to reach 0.87 – this is the current resistance level. Currently, the pair is on the way downwards after bouncing off it a few days ago. If bears keep pulling, it may reach 0.86 and aim at 0.85 once again. In the larger perspective, the behavior of EUR/GBP in the coming weeks will indicate if it is going to re-take the gains made through 2020 or go further downwards to the five-year lows of 0.83.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

NASDAQ: The Leaders Lead. Or Attempt to, and Fail

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.05.2021 15:20
The most bearish development for gold came from… the NASDAQ. And no, these are not six typos in a row. Let me explain.The tech stocks were the strongest part of the stock market in the previous year or so, and for a good reason. Due to the lockdown-induced surge in remote work, the need for all sorts of tech improvements (in both: software and hardware) soared. So, it’s no wonder that the NASDAQ was the strongest part of the market. It was the sole leader.Now, there’s a rule in every market that leaders… Well, lead. This makes perfect sense, no surprise yet. But, there’s a point after which the leaders stop leading and stocks that are relatively weak or have less favorable fundamentals are catching up, eventually rallying more than the leaders. Why would this be the case? Because those who understand the markets and what’s going on are already invested, and those who are neither as knowledgeable nor experienced – the investment public – enter the market.The investment public makes purchases often without any regard to fundamentals (or technicals) – they buy because a given asset seems cheap compared to other assets. And what would be cheap in the final part of the upswing – after the market professionals have already established their positions in well-positioned assets? The poorly positioned assets. The stocks/markets that were – for a good reason – neglected previously. So, they start buying those, and the laggards become the new leaders.The NASDAQ was the leader that started to underperform while other stocks soared. The last few months were as clear as it gets in terms of emphasizing that. While the S&P 500 Index soared to new all-time highs, the only thing that the tech stocks managed to do was to attempt to break to new highs.Attempt.And fail.Last week’s shooting-star-shaped weekly reversal was bearish on its own, but considering that it was also a failure to break to new highs, the bearish fire got gasoline poured over it.Now, this could have been accidental, and it was prudent to wait for another decline before stating that the top in the stock market is most likely in…Until we saw yesterday’s slide. The NASDAQ is already over 2% lower this week, and it’s only after two sessions.Why is this important? Because if we have indeed seen a major top on the stock market , then it tells us a lot about the next moves on the precious metals market. And – in particular – about mining stocks.The history might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and those who insist on ignoring it are doomed to repeat it.And there’s practically only one situation from more than the past four decades that is similar to what we see right now.It’s the early 2000s when the tech stock bubble burst. It’s practically the only time when the tech stocks were after a similarly huge rally. It’s also the only time when the weekly MACD soared to so high levels (we already saw the critical sell signal from it). It’s also the only comparable case with regard to the breakout above the rising blue trend channel. The previous move above it was immediately followed by a pullback to the 200-week moving average, and then the final – most volatile – part of the rally started. It ended on significant volume when the MACD flashed the sell signal. Again, we’re already after this point.The recent attempt to break to new highs that failed seems to have been the final cherry on the bearish cake.Why should I – the precious metals investor, care?Because of what happened in the XAU Index (a proxy for gold stocks and silver stocks ) shortly after the tech stock bubble burst last time.What happened was that the mining stocks declined for about three months after the NASDAQ topped, and then they formed their final bottom that started the truly epic rally. And just like it was the case over 20 years ago, mining stocks topped several months before the tech stocks.Mistaking the current situation for the true bottom is something that is likely to make a huge difference in one’s bottom line. After all, the ability to buy something about twice as cheap is practically equal to selling the same thing at twice the price. Or it’s like making money on the same epic upswing twice instead of “just” once.And why am I writing about “half” and “twice”? Because… I’m being slightly conservative, and I assume that the history is about to rhyme once again as it very often does (despite seemingly different circumstances in the world). The XAU Index declined from its 1999 high of 92.72 to 41.61 – it erased 55.12% of its price.The most recent medium-term high in the GDX ETF (another proxy for mining stocks) was at about $45. Half of that is $22.5, so a move to this level would be quite in tune with what we saw recently.And the thing is that based on this week’s slide in the NASDAQ that followed the weekly reversal and the invalidation, it seems that this slide lower has already begun.Wait, you said something about three months?Yes, that’s approximately how long we had to wait for the final buying opportunity in the mining stocks to present itself based on the stock market top.The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008.All in all, the precious metals sector would be likely to bottom about three months after the general stock market tops. If the last week’s highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were the final highs, then we might expect the precious metals sector to bottom in the middle of the year – in late July or in August.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Janet Smoke and Mirrors

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.05.2021 15:44
Weak overnight trading gave way to tepid European session with a predictable buying interest at the U.S. open - which fizzled out though after a few minutes. The tight range consolidation of late gave way to heavy selling as Janet Yellen talked rate hikes and inflation. Friday‘Kaplan trial baloon, and now this – she walked back her statement in the aftermarket, and stocks kept recovering since. Even the VIX upper knot doesn‘t look so spooky anymore, but the options traders aren‘t convinced. But how many such headline shocks have we seen recently? Capital gains tax plans, anyone? See how the market did next, shaking off the shock and rising on the Fed‘s continued liquidity wave next. Watch what they do, not what they say – and for now, the ingredients are still in place for further stock gains, and I made a good decision to buy yesterday‘s dip on signs of intraday stabilization.Even long-dated Treasuries dialed back their gains and inflation expectations receded on this perceived readiness to take that pesky „transitory“ inflation seriously. The dollar though had a hard time reversing Monday‘s losses that were virtually guaranteed once the 2021 mini-taper tantrum played out on Friday in currencies. The big picture is still the same – we‘re still living the good reflation, and even if it doesn‘t miraculously rekindle lasting inflationary flames, the print & spend magic recipe will be tried again until it does.Gold rose on the S&P 500 selloff only to reverse lower, but has anything materially changed? Miners keep doing better – they declined less, and the volume wasn‘t just there to the same extent as with the yellow metal.And the other commodities? I‘m known for incessantly beating the copper bullish drum, and also the oil one, and here we are with further gains added since my latest oil analysis. Silver might pull back a little here, but look for it to mirror the insatiable appetite for base metals and other commodities. Beyond the Green New Deal mandates, the monetary demand is set to help power the white metal higher.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookQuite a steep increase yesterday, and more upside price action returning SPX back into the range over the coming days, is needed to fix that dicey look in the daily indicators. Nothing unimaginable in this data-light week (don‘t look at non-farm payrolls), unless a black swan arrives. No signs thereof in the credit or currency markets, luckily.Credit MarketsPlunging in line with stocks, junk corporate bonds made an intraday recovery on high volume – their dip was also bought. And as the investment grade bonds maintained their opening gains as much as long-dated Treasuries did, the stage is being set for stocks to shake off yesterday‘s plunge.Technology and ValueHas technology found the bottom, or not? Semiconductors (XSD ETF) aren‘t overly positive, and a similar statement can be made about $NYFANG performance. Tech didn‘t join in much sturdier moves across the defensives, and didn‘t welcome retreating rates the way it used to earlier. Value stocks are the ones to rely upon as even financials (XLF ETF) rose on such a TLT move – but stellar S&P 500 gains require both parts of the stock universe to do well simultaneously.Gold and Miners Short-TermGold and miners need to stand their ground, and return to gains. It looks that miners would once again lead the yellow metal higher, now that nominal yields are biting less, and USD/JPY isn‘t exerting pressure.Gold and Miners Long-TermGold is struggling to overcome $1,800 for a few weeks already, but both the black lines shown in the above chart, support the eventual break higher. I assume that when that comes, it would just leave the bears in the dust.SummaryS&P 500 looks ready to continue its gradual recovery, and take on the all time highs next. A key enabler would be the tech heavyweights no longer standing in the way – tentative signs of their local bottom are appearing.Gold and miners suffered a minor setback yesterday, and the signals from related markets continue supporting further gains in spite of prolonged hesitation in the yellow metal lately.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – USDCAD Struggles To Bottom Out

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.05.2021 07:16
USDCAD reaches a 3-year lowThe US dollar remains under pressure as downbeat ADP jobs data fails to impress the market. General sentiment remains bearish as the pair grinds down along the 30-day moving average.The price action is about to test the February 2018 low of 1.2250. The recent bounce to 1.2350 indicates that sellers may be taking some chips off the table.A briefly overbought RSI might have prevented bidders to get into the action. One may expect traders to buy the dip when the greenback reaches the said support level.EURGBP tests key supportThe euro weakened after PMIs in Germany and France came out below consensus. The pair has struggled to clear the major supply area around 0.8720 on the daily chart.The triple top has kept the price action in check, which suggests that profit-takings have prevailed for the lack of further commitment from the buy-side.0.8590 is key support as a bearish breakout could make the euro vulnerable to the downside.On the upside, 0.8688 is the immediate resistance from the latest sell-off.USOIL rises above major resistanceWTI crude price consolidates gains as US inventories slash another 8M barrels. By clearing the resistance at 66.30, a major level from the previous sell-off the price action has signaled a bullish continuation.March’s high at 67.90 would be a formality as the rally gains impetus. However, an overbought RSI shows signs of over-extension.There is limited downside risk if trend followers wait for a pullback to jump onboard. 65.00 would be the first support to look for.Further down, 62.90 is critical in keeping optimism intact.
Lumber and Copper Are Surging. Will Gold Join the Party?

Lumber and Copper Are Surging. Will Gold Join the Party?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.05.2021 15:47
There’s no inflation … None at all. Only, completely by accident, lumber prices are skyrocketing. Gold is likely to remain silent, but it may catch up later.The rise in lumber prices can be seen in the chart below:What a surge! It happened because of the limited supply and strong demand for new houses. But it’s not just lumber. Many raw commodities are rallying too. The price of copper, for example, has just approached its record height (from February 2011), as the recovery of the global economy boosted demand. Just take a look at the price below.Indeed, the trend is up. Commodity prices are on the rise as a whole as the chart below clearly shows. Even Warren Buffet warned investors against a “red hot” recovery, saying that his portfolio companies were “seeing very substantial inflation” amid shortages of raw materials.Of course, commodity price inflation and consumer price inflation are quite different phenomena, as consumers don’t buy lumber or copper directly but only finished products made from these materials. However, at least part of this producer price inflation may translate into higher consumer prices, as producers’ ability to pass higher costs on consumers has recently increased – people have a large holding of cash and are willing to spend it.Implications for GoldWhat do rallying commodity prices imply for the precious metals? Well, rising commodity prices signal higher inflation, which should increase the demand for gold as an inflation hedge . Of course, there might be some supply disruptions and bottlenecks in a few commodities. However, the widespread character and the extent of the increase in prices suggest that monetary policy is to blame here and that inflation won’t be just transitory as the Fed claims.What’s more, the commodity boom is usually a good time for precious metals . As the chart below shows, there is a strong positive correlation between the broad commodity index and the precious metals index.There was a big divergence during the pandemic when commodities plunged, while gold at the same time shined brightly as a safe-haven asset . So, the current lackluster performance of the yellow metal is perfectly understandable during the economic recovery.Indeed, the rebound in gold has been weak, and gold hasn’t even crossed $1,800 yet, although it was close this week, as the chart below shows.There was a rally on Monday (May 3) amid a retreat in the US dollar, but we were back in the doldrums on Tuesday, amid Yellen’s remarks about higher bond yields . She said that interest rates could rise to prevent the economy from overheating:It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn't overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economyHowever, Yellen clarified her statements later, explaining that she was not recommending or predicting that the Fed should hike interest rates. Additionally, several FOMC members made their speeches, presenting the dovish view on the Fed’s monetary policy . For example, Richard Clarida, Fed Vice Chair, said that the economy was still a long way from the Fed’s goals and that the US central bank wasn’t thinking about reducing its quantitative easing program .Anyway, the price of gold has been trading sideways recently as it couldn’t break out of the $1,700-$1,800 price range. This inability can be frustrating, but the inflationary pressure could help the yellow metal to free itself from the shackles. The bull market in gold started in 2019, well ahead of the commodities. Now, there is a correction , but gold may join the party later . It’s important to remember that reflation has two phases: the growth phase when raw materials outperform gold and the inflation phase when gold catches up with the commodities. So, we may have to wait for a breakout a little longer, but once we get it, new investors may flow into the market, strengthening the upward move.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Stocks and Gold – Hot and Hotter

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.05.2021 15:50
The rebound off Tuesday‘s lows continued semisuccessfully yesterday – further upside was rejected in spite of signs of strength both within the S&P 500 and outside markets. Technically, the bulls are still on a dicey, vulnerable ground – but increasingly less so. It‘s that VIX is calming down, and the put/call ratio has sharply moved into its complacent spectrum. And not only that – new highs new lows are rising in spite of the advance-decline line being little moved.These are all budding signs of the upcoming break higher, and no change in the reflationary positive dynamics for stocks, let alone the red hot commodities. These (copper, agrifoods, base metals, lumber, oil) continue appreciating in spite of nominal yields pulling back a little these days. Make no mistake though, deflation isn‘t about to break out. Lower yields no longer work in support of all the defensive sectors – technology has passed the leadership baton long ago to value stocks (think Mar), but appears to be bottoming here in spite of the reversal late yesterday. That‘s positive as any S&P 500 advance has to count on both value and tech pulling ahead more or less simultaneously. A welcome sign of returning animal spirits in the 500-strong index would be the Russell 2000 juices flowing again. Thus far, even the emerging markets are hesitating.Not that they should be – the USD Index looks very vulnerable to me here, and its anticipated downside move (the smoke and mirror games I talked about on Monday and Wednesday are nothing but a distraction) would help lift international markets, and is also part of the explanation behind the strong commodity performance these days. This CRB Index move is key, and shows how far have real assets progressed in shaking off the dollar link – if you compare the dollar‘s value in early Feb and now, you are looking at very meaningfully higher commodity prices over that same time period.Gold and silver are about to shake off the dollar shackles as they catch up to commodities that have left them in the dust since Aug or Nov. The key metrics such as nominal or real yields support the precious metals rebound increasingly more – don‘t be fooled, gold would break above the $1,800 resistance, whether you look at it as a purely psychological one, or as a neckline of an inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart. The advance across the real assets, the precious metals and commodities super bull, would be more well rounded then. As I wrote yesterday:(…) I‘m known for incessantly beating the copper bullish drum, and also the oil one, and here we are with further gains added since my latest oil analysis. Silver might pull back a little here, but look for it to mirror the insatiable appetite for base metals and other commodities. Beyond the Green New Deal mandates, the monetary demand is set to help power the white metal higher.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookShort-term vulnerability and drying up volume as we‘re waiting for the daily indicators to turn brighter. Some more sideways trading would do that trick.Credit MarketsThe corporate credit markets keep signalling higher stock prices next, though. Notably, both HYG and LQD rose in spite of long-dated Treasuries turning up as well.Technology and ValueDid it bottom, did it not? For much of yesterday‘s session, the tweezer bottom approximating formation was in place. Both semiconductors (XSD ETF) and heavyweights ($NYFANG) gave up the encouraging intraday gains, and value (VTV ETF) wasn‘t strong enough to save the day. The question of a tech bottom remains of crucial importance, and looking at the distance between both XLK and $NYFANG price swings relative to the 50-day moving average, the odds are good for higher tech prices right next.Inflation ExpectationsInflation expectations have moderated their run, and are currently consolidating. The key sign here is that Treasury yields are no longer frontrunning them, but have come modestly down lately. Coupled with the USD/JPY below 109.20 making a rounding top, that‘s one less headwind for gold.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners aren‘t underperforming, and the tentative signs of strength beyond the intraday flavor returning, are there.Silver didn‘t outperform yesterday, which means that the precious metals sector isn‘t approaching short-term overheating. At the same time, the copper to 10-year Treasuriy yields is increasingly supportive of the coming gold upleg.SummaryS&P 500 is short-term consolidating only, and getting ready for a new upswing whenever the technology behemoths turn. These are the decisive factor of sustainable and noticeable stock market gains. Gold and miners have bullishly consolidated yesterday, and are amply supported by related markets to score strong gains next.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 06.05.2021 17:17
Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver.Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in MetalsWe interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope.  For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many Bullish Advancing and Declining cycle phases take place – one after another.  Conversely, we may see many Bearish cycle phases take place in an extended downtrend.  Another type of cycle phase can also exist, the Reversal Cycle Phase – where price Advances in one direction and Declines in the opposite direction.  This type of Rotation Cycle Phase exists as the current completed Cycle on the Gold chart, below.As we are nearing the end of the current Declining Cycle Phase as seen in the chart below, we will soon begin the new Advancing Cycle Phase in Gold.  Gold's Reversal Cycle Phase that took place between December 21, 2020, and May 10, 2021, will likely close higher than the midpoint (or Apex) of the total Cycle Phase.  This suggests a new bullish price trend has taken over and the price is more likely to move higher in the next Advancing Cycle Phase. If this trend continues, then the price will continue to rally higher in the Declining Cycle Phase as well – as we saw in the first Cycle Phase: between March 16, 2020, and August 3, 2020.Gold & Silver Phase Tables – Will Price Continue A New Bullish Cycle Phase?To help explain our Cycle research, we've put together these tables to detail the Cycle Phases and price logic we use to interpret each Advancing and Declining phase.  Each table entry consists of an Advancing, then Declining Cycle Phase.  Combined, they make up a complete Cycle Phase.  We are measuring price at the midpoint (Apex) of the Cycle Phase to determine if any Advancing or Declining Cycle Phase is Bullish or Bearish in trend.  If both Advancing and Declining Cycle Phases show the same trend direction, we define that completed Cycle Phase as Bullish or Bearish.  If they differ in trend types, we define that completed Cycle Phase as a Reversal Phase.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Gold has been in a downtrend recently while Silver has continued to stay somewhat bullish in a sideways price trend.  You can see from the tables below, Gold recently completed a Reversal Cycle Phase (ending with a Bullish Declining Phase) while Silver has continued to exhibit Bullish Cycle Phases since March 9, 2020.Both Gold and Silver ended their last completed Cycle Phases recently.  Gold will end the last completed Cycle Phase on May 10, 2021.  Silver ended its last completed Cycle Phase on April 12, 2021. The next Advancing Cycle Phase for both Gold and Silver will begin this week and next week – and will continue until July 19, 2021.  After that, the Declining Cycle Phase will begin and last until late September, for Gold, and late October for Silver.If our research is correct, we may see extended bullish trending over the next 6+ months in both Gold and Silver.Silver Cycle Phases Continue To Show Stronger Bullish TrendingThe following Silver Weekly Chart highlights the Cycle Phases and highlights the price trends for each Advancing and Declining Cycle Phase.  While Gold has experienced an extended Bearish Cycle Phase over the past 5+ months, Silver has continued to show stronger bullish price Cycle Phases and continues to attempt higher closing price levels at the end of each Cycle Phase.  We believe this suggests Silver is likely to see some explosive upside price trending when the $28.42 level (the higher YELLOW line) is breached.  This level represents historical price resistance for Silver.  Once this level is breached, we believe Silver will begin to advance higher very quickly.Remember, we have until July 19, 2021, before the first Advancing Cycle Phase in Silver ends.  This Advancing Phase may prompt a move above the $28.42 level and may attempt to rally above $30.00 as we have drawn on the chart (below). If the Declining Cycle Phase continues this bullish trend, we may see Silver trading above $32.00 ~ $33.00 before Halloween 2021.  This would represent a +26.5% rally in Silver from the last completed Cycle Phase price level.In closing, we want to suggest that a rally as we are proposing in Gold and Silver will also present a renewed risk factor for the US and global markets (potentially). In the past, we have seen precious metals rally while the US stock market rallies.  It is not uncommon for precious metals to begin to move higher while the US stock market continues to move higher.  This type of price activity simply suggests that global traders/investors are moving capital into Precious Metals as the US stock market climbs a strengthening “wall of worry”.  This type of price action happened from 2004 to 2009 – prior to the Credit Crisis/Housing Crisis.As we've been suggesting for many months, the next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for traders and investors. Smart traders will quickly identify these phases of the market and will understand how to position themselves to take advantage of this next phase. You can learn more about how I identify and trade Gold, Silver, and the markets by watching my FREE step-by-step guide to finding and trading the best sectors. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers. Sign up today!Happy Trading!
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Silver eats doubt for breakfast

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.05.2021 09:39
The good news is: You do not need to know how the future unfolds to preserve your wealth. And Silver eats doubt for breakfast.Silver prices will continue to rise. Why are we so sure about this? Unlike most who try to gain clarity about how the future might look like, we instead eliminate all scenarios where Silver prices wouldn’t be rising. Even if you are not a specialist in trading fundamentals, by now, it intuitively feels just wrong that central banks put this much freshly printed currency into circulation. Historically, precious metals are the most common safe haven in times of trouble and doubt. This will be no different this time around.Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Last week’s chart:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021.In last week´s publication, we posted the above chart with this comment:“We identified the slightly higher probability of prices to advance immediately since we overcame a distribution zone marked with a dark green horizontal line, which now serves as support.”…and spot on we were:  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Like we hoped:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 6th, 2021.While these weekly charts might appear somewhat similar, something significant has happened. The following the daily chart shows this more clearly.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Resistance penetration:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 6th, 2021.Zooming into the smaller time frame, we can see the significance of last week’s price movement. Not only did the POC (point of control) support supply zone based on volume transaction (green horizontal line) get cemented by three rejected candle wicks, but the original breakout through significant resistance at US$26.55 all the way to prices above US$$27 paves the way to further advances.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, When to cash in some chips:Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 6th, 2021.While entries are essential for risk minimization, exits distinguish the good trader. They should be as such the true focus in one’s trading approach. Looking at the Gold chart above, the leader of the precious metal sector and as such followed by Silver shows a clear seasonal pattern. We identified a high probability for precious metal prices peaking in the first week of September and will, as such, take partial profits (see our quad exit strategy) at that time from our Silver holdings.Silver eats doubt for breakfast:Our mind craves certainties in an uncertain world and even more when predicting an unknown future. It is the process of accepting these uncertainties and applying principles of wealth preservation that supports the outcome of sound investment strategies.One of these principles is the process of elimination. We were asking if there is a scenario where Silver wouldn’t rise, which is much more fruitful than trying to predict a precise model of the future. We literally couldn’t come up with a scenario that would work against the Silver price advance over the long term.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 7th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Ready for More Hot Gold and Stocks Profits

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.05.2021 16:22
One final attempt to go down before reversing to strong gains all the way to the closing bell – the S&P 500 returned to trading back at the upper border of its prolonged consolidation range. Again at 4,200, new ATHs are back in sight – that‘s at least what the impression from declining VIX says, and the option traders might disagree here all they want, they‘re likely to be the next cannon fodder in the bullish advance.Needless to say that my reasonably and justifiably aggressive long positions in both S&P 500 and gold, are innundated with rising profits. Initiated in the vicinity of Tuesday‘s lows, I look for more gains in stocks (we‘ll get to the metals shortly) in spite of smallcaps still lagging behind (don‘t worry, they‘ll catch up over time, and I will cover that), and precisely because emerging markets are rejoicing over further dollar woes. Yes, the glitzy and fake tightening show is officially over since I first vocally called for it in Monday‘s analysis.Keep an eye on the big picture presented yesterday:(…) no change in the reflationary positive dynamics for stocks, let alone the red hot commodities. These (copper, agrifoods, base metals, lumber, oil) continue appreciating in spite of nominal yields pulling back a little these days. Make no mistake though, deflation isn‘t about to break out. Lower yields finally coincided with (supported) the defensive sectors the way it ideally should – technology bottom searching is over, Dow Jones Industrial Average is spurting higher, utilities recovered, and consumer staples continued upwards as if nothing happened at all. Maybe is this heavy on P&G sector placing faith in the market leader‘s pricing power to result in a success once September arrives with the rest of crowd following? That‘s the part of the cost-push inflation I discussed on Monday. I truly hope that people are paying attention, and don‘t put all their eggs into e.g. the dollar basket when it comes to commodities:(…) the USD Index … anticipated downside move ... would help lift international markets, and is also part of the explanation behind the strong commodity performance these days. This CRB Index move is key, and shows how far have real assets progressed in shaking off the dollar link – if you compare the dollar‘s value in early Feb and now, you are looking at very meaningfully higher commodity prices over that same time period.Gold and silver fireworks arrived, and more is to come! What a better proof than a broad based advance across the sector, starting with both metals, and extending to gold and silver miners left and right. Not to mention the copper fires burning brightly – if you were listening to my incessant red metal bullish calls, you‘re very happy now. And just as in the precious metals, there is more to come here too. So happy for all you who had the patience to wait out a couple of adverse sessions, because:(…) The key metrics such as nominal or real yields support the precious metals rebound increasingly more – don‘t be fooled, gold would break above the $1,800 resistance, whether you look at it as a purely psychological one, or as a neckline of an inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart. The advance across the real assets, the precious metals and commodities super bull, would be more well rounded then. As for Bitcoin, such was my yesterday‘s (still valid) assessment in a series of updates of the leading, but currently lagging crypto when compared to Ethereum or Dogecoin, the latter being a true middle finger to the financial system. GameStop, silver squeeze, Doge...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookYesterday‘s rebound happened on rising volume, lending it credibility for the sessions to come. The bears weren‘t obviously convinced enough to sell as yesterday‘s volume lagged behind Tuesday‘s one.Credit MarketsThe corporate credit markets kept yesterday and still keep today signalling higher stock prices next. Notably, both HYG and LQD rose again in spite of long-dated Treasuries turning up as well.Technology and ValueTechnology did indeed bottom, and the heavyweights contributed reasonably enough to its advance. Semiconductors could have fared a little better, but that‘s not a major issue. At the same time, value stocks continued their steep ascent, as reliably as ever.S&P 500 Market BreadthThe S&P 500 advance wasn‘t accompanied by either new highs new lows or the advance-decline line turning up noticeably. Might be disappointing at first sight, but the overall impression is still of a healthy and quite broad advance.Gold and Miners Short-TermMiners and gold are in tune with each other, jointly pulling the cart of the precious metals advance. No further words are necessary here, I believe.Gold, Silver and Miners Long-TermJust as strongly when I doubted the miners to gold plunge on Monday, the ratio swiftly recovered starting Tuesday and extending gains yesterday. Please note silver springing to leadership position again – gradually first, more obviously throughout this week on the silver squeeze heels, which would be a volatile ride, but once again, silver is the best of both worlds – the monetary and industrial applications ones.Crude OilCrude oil pulled back a little yesterday, but the series of higher highs and higher lows since April hasn‘t been violated. The table remains set for further gains, and the only question is how fast these come – I‘m standing by my calls for at least $80 West Texas Intermediate before 2022 is over. Seasonality is still good for black gold, so enjoy the ride!SummaryS&P 500 is readying another reach for the highs, finally supported (a ka not being hampered by) technology. Risk on is returning and high beta stock markets pockets are expected to keep doing well. Gold, silver and miners have firmly positioned themselves to extend yesterday‘s much awaited and well deserved gains. The upleg is just getting started, now that the few weeks‘ consolidation is over.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Inflation Knock-knock-knockin’ On Golden Door

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.05.2021 16:43
Inflation is not coming. It is already here! Gold should benefit, given that it could be higher and more lasting than the pundits believe.“Knock, knock, knockin’ on heaven’s door”, so sing Bob Dylan and Guns N’ Roses. Now, inflation is knocking on the golden door. According to the BLS , the U.S. CPI inflation rate recorded a monthly jump of 0.6% in March, while soaring 2.6% on an annual basis. And the core inflation has also accelerated. So, inflation has significantly surpassed the Fed’s target of 2% , as one can see in the chart below.And remember that this is what the official data shows, which rather underestimates the true inflation. This is because of several issues, including hedonic quality adjustments, shifts in the composition of the consumer baskets and methodological changes. It is enough to say that the rate of inflation calculated by the John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics that uses methodology from the 1980s is over 10% right now.There are some controversies about this alternate data, but I would like to focus on something else. The CPI doesn’t include houses (or other assets) into the consumer baskets, as they are treated as investments. The index only takes rents into account. But homeowners don’t pay rents, so for them, the cost of shelter, which accounts for about one-fourth of the overall CPI, is the implicit rent that owner-occupants would have to pay if they were renting their homes. And this component rose just 2 percent in March, while the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures the actual house prices, soared more than 11% in January (the latest available data). According to Wolf Street , if we had replaced the owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence with the Case-Shiller Index, the CPI would have jumped 5.1 instead of 2.6%. The chart below shows the difference between these two measures.Hence, inflation has come, and even the official data – which can underestimate the level of inflation that ordinary people deal with in their daily lives – confirms this. If you’ve been buying food lately, you know what I mean. Now, the question is whether this inflation will be temporary or more lasting.Powell , his colleagues and the pundits claim that higher inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon caused by the base effect. The story goes like this: the CPI plunged in March 2020, which created a lower base for today’s annual inflation rate. There is, of course, a grain of truth here. But let’s take a look at the chart below. It shows the CPI, with both March 2020 (red line) and February 2020 (green line) as a base. As you can see, in the latter case the index jumped 2.3%. Yes, lower, but not significantly lower than 2.6% when compared to March 2020. So, the Fed shouldn’t blame the base effects for accelerating inflation (and funny thing: have you heard the pundits talking about the base effect when they were talking about vigorous GDP recovery?).Instead, central bankers should blame themselves and their insane monetary policy . After all, as the chart below shows, the Fed’s balance sheet has soared $3.4 trillion (or 81%), while the broad money supply (measured by M2) has increased more than $4 trillion (or 26%) from February to date.They could also blame reckless fiscal policy . Growing government spending, enabled by a rising pile of debts monetized indirectly by the Fed, has headed for Main Street. This, combined with a jump in the broad money supply, is the key change compared to the Great Recession when almost all stimuli flowed into Wall Street and big corporations. Sure, some people use the received money to increase savings and repay debts. But with the reopening economy, some of the pent-up demand will be realized. Actually, many Americans have already started spending free time traveling like crazy after being locked in homes for so long.And this is very important: consumers are therefore more eager to accept higher prices. It shouldn’t be surprising given all the checks they got and how hungry for normal life they are. As I reported last month , companies are reporting rising prices of commodities and inputs (partially because of the supply disruptions too), but so far their power to pass the producer price inflation to consumers has been limited. However, this is changing . The April report IHS Markit U.S. Services PMI observes thatRates of input cost and output charge inflation reached fresh record peaks, as firms sought to pass on steep rises in input prices to clients (…) A number of companies also stated that stronger client demand allowed a greater proportion of the hike in costs to be passed through. The resulting rate of charge inflation was the quickest on record.All these reasons suggest that higher inflation could be more lasting than most of the so-called experts believe (although the officially reported inflation doesn’t have to show it). This is good news for the yellow metal . Higher inflation implies lower real interest rates and stronger demand for gold as an inflation hedge . What is important here is that we have more inflationary pressure in the pipeline exactly at the time when the Fed has become more tolerant of inflation. So, the combination of higher inflation with a passive central bank position sounds bullish for gold . The key issue here is whether the markets believe that the Fed will allow for higher inflation. So far, they have been skeptical, so the expectations of interest rates hikes accumulated and the bond yields rallied. But it seems that the Fed has managed to convince the markets that it’s even more incompetent than it is widely believed. If the distrust in the Fed strengthens, gold should return to its upward trajectory from the last year.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – DAX Aims For New Record High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.05.2021 08:06
GER 30 tests previous record highThe DAX has recouped recent losses as risk sentiment made its way back in the market. By clearing the previous crash point at 15270 the price action has confirmed the bullish MA cross.The index then established support at 15100. As it climbs back towards the peak at 15520, an overbought RSI could be the rally’s Achilles’ heel.Profit-taking near the resistance level may trigger a brief retracement.On the upside, a breakout could extend the rally to a new record high.USDCAD tumbles towards 2017’s lowThe US dollar fell as the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in April from a previous 5.8%.The February 2018 low at 1.2250 has failed to contain the bearish mood. The market remains unidirectional to the south.The RSI has dipped into the oversold territory and could trigger some short-covering from intraday players. Though selling into strength is likely to be the motto if the price climbs back towards 1.2280.September 2017’s low at 1.2060 would be the next target when the sell-side doubles down.EURGBP looks to break out of rangeThe euro rose after ECB official Martin Kazaks said the ECB could reduce emergency bond purchases (PEPP).The pair has found strong buying interest in the demand zone above 0.8600. An RSI divergence on this major support was a foresign that the selling pressure had lost steam.The current rebound is still within a consolidation range between 0.8610 and 0.8720.A bullish breakout may open the path towards 0.8780. A failure to do so would lead to a pullback to test bids at 0.8655.
What‘s Not To Love About These Great Bull Runs?

What‘s Not To Love About These Great Bull Runs?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.05.2021 14:39
A bit of selling at the open, and off to new highs – the S&P 500 bulls are taking no prisoners. The long recent consolidation has been broken, and it was again to the upside. Option traders are still having a hard time agreeing with the declining VIX, which is pointing to them serving as still some more cannon fodder next in the bullish advance. In fairness though, it can‘t be denied that the average put/call ratio has been rising over the last 3 months.Still, that doesn‘t change the reality that my reasonably and justifiably aggressive long positions in both S&P 500 and gold, are going even more profitable. No problem that the Russell 2000 didn‘t climb as much – emerging markets stepped into the void on account of predictably cratering USD. Friday didn‘t bring any changes to the narratives – the very weak non-farm payrolls weren‘t a selling catalyst in the least. All eyes remain on reopening trades to the effect that value stocks are rising effortlessly whatever the nominal rates direction. In spite of inflation and inflation expectations not being negligible, we‘re in still in the reflationary period where economic growth is higher than either of these two.Not only is the S&P 500 advance a very broad one as evidenced by the number of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (with tech playing a positive role once again), commodities continue being on fire. Especially the base metals such as copper welcomed the uptick in inflation expectations. With the recent two trial baloons (Kaplan and Yellen), the Fed might be exploring market reactions if it had moved to counter inflation at least to some degree. Hold not your breath though, that would tank the risk-on assets – they won‘t do that any time soon.Gold is making its run, unhampered by nominal yields rising on the day. Miners have continued their advance, and the precious metals upleg offers a sight of health. Note also that the silver miners have been doing overall better than the gold ones throughout the long soft patch starting in Aug 2020, just as silver did. That‘s precisely what to expect in an environment of inflation running hot:(…) Gold and silver fireworks arrived, and more is to come! What a better proof than a broad based advance across the sector, starting with both metals, and extending to gold and silver miners left and right. Not to mention the copper fires burning brightly – if you were listening to my incessant red metal bullish calls, you‘re very happy now. And just as in the precious metals, there is more to come here too.And as the Fed continues playing ostrich when it comes action, commodities including oil continue doing great. While black gold consolidated over the last few sessions, it remains primed to go higher.Bitcoin is also enjoying upside momentum as it aims to clear the 50-day moving average vicinity. Its uptrend is gradually reasserting itself – patience required still. But it‘s the steep gains in other cryptos such as Ethereum making new highs practically on a daily basis, that is catching much attention. ETH/USD looks short-term extended though, and I would prefer waiting for a pullback, especially given the last two candles‘ shape (both having significant knots – today is shaping up to be a day of more upside rejection).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWe‘re again at the upper border of the Bollinger Bands, and the daily indicators are constructive with more room to grow. We‘re staring at a positive week ahead.Credit MarketsThe corporate credit markets did waver a little on the day, investment grade bonds more so than the high yield ones, which is understandable given the long-dated Treasuries setback.Technology and ValueTechnology rebound continues, and should so aided by the recent earnings announced. I am not looking for a meaningful dip in $NDX or whichever part of the tech sector over the nearest days as $NYFANG did its job quite well on Friday. Yet again, value stocks continued their steep ascent come hell or high water.Inflation ExpectationsA rare sight indeed – Treasury yields have run behind inflation expectations on Friday.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners continue running higher together, and neither gold‘s upper knot nor miners reaching visually escape velocity compared to the yellow metal, is an issue, because copper had a great day.Silver consolidated daily gains, lagging behind both gold and copper. No issues, the white metal has great days ahead still, and Friday‘s session proves that the precious metals upswing is nowhere near overheated.Crude OilCrude oil bulls defended Thursday‘s lows, and the bullish consolidation continues. Look for an upside breakout next as this isn‘t a double top. I‘m standing by my calls for at least $80 West Texas Intermediate before 2022 is over. Seasonality is still good for black gold, so enjoy the ride!SummaryS&P 500 is at new highs, and its ascent is far from over – no signs of a major or even local top to be made. The index will have an easier time now that the short term tech / Nasdaq outlook has flipped bullish as well. Gold, silver and miners continue to be well positioned to reap further gains as the well balanced rally continues. The copper and nominal yields combo balances each other out, so the factors speak for a bullish consolidation in the short term as a minimum.Crude oil is getting ready to resume its upswing in a modest fashion, and I look for its early Mar top to be challenged this or next week.Bitcoin upswing is very gradually reasserting itself, and the bulls would be well advised to pay attention as the 50-day moving average is likely to start sloping upwards perhaps as early as this Friday, thus supporting the prices above the late Apr base.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.Thank you,Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading SignalsOil Trading SignalsBitcoin Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co* * * * *All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

GDX, HUI: Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.05.2021 16:29
The GDX and HUI Index are enjoying a blissful moment. With HUI behaving civilly, will the GDX cling to the unrealistic and try to leap to cloud “ten”?With the GDX ETF punching a hole through its glass ceiling, the senior miners are now witnessing an environment that’s beyond their wildest dreams: sunshine, clear skies and a utopia that’s eluded them since the beginning of the New Year. However, while leaving paradise is often more difficult than arriving, the GDX ETF’s recent vacation is likely coming to an end. And with the senior miners about to resume the daily grind of real life, their optimism will likely fade with the tropical sun.To explain, while the GDX ETF remains on cloud nine, the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) has already left the resort. With the latter’s long-term outlook still intact and its broad head & shoulders pattern remaining on schedule, I wrote previously that the right shoulder would likely form after the HUI Index reaches 300. And after closing at 301.72 on May 7, the BUGS (after all, HUI is called the Gold Bugs Index) are currently living up to expectations.Please see below:Moreover, while corrective short-term upswings within a medium-term downtrend can feel discouraging, it’s important to remember that similar instances occurred in 2008 and 2012. Remember: Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers warned us that the waiting is the hardest part. However, in the end, the wait should be more than worth it.To explain, note that the 2007 – 2008 and the 2009 – 2012 head and shoulders patterns didn’t have the right shoulders all the way up to the line that was parallel to the line connecting the bottoms. I marked those lines with green in the above-mentioned formations. In the current case, I marked those lines with orange. Now, in both cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw. To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.For more context, I wrote previously:The recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short-term only.The thing is that the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. During the walk, this might result in getting lost, and the implications are no different in the investment landscape.From the day-to-day perspective, a weekly – let alone monthly – rally seems like a huge deal. However, once one zooms out and looks at the situation from a broad perspective, it’s clear that:“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” (-Ecclesiastes 1:9)The rally is very likely the right shoulder of a broad head and shoulders formation. “Very likely” and not “certainly”, because the HUI Index needs to break to new yearly lows in order to complete the pattern – for now, it’s just potential. However, given the situation in the USD Index (i.a. the positions of futures traders as seen in the CoT report , and the technical situation in it), it seems very likely that this formation will indeed be completed. Especially when (not if) the general stock market tumbles.In addition, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the decline exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.Can we see gold stocks as low as we saw them last year? Yes.Can we see gold stocks even lower than at their 2020 lows? Again, yes.Of course, it’s far from being a sure bet, but the above chart shows that it’s not irrational to expect these kind of price levels before the final bottom is reached. This means that a $24 target on the GDX ETF is likely conservative.In addition, mining stocks are currently flirting with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early 2020 high.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.I know, I know, this seems too unreal to be true… But wasn’t the same said about silver moving below its 2015 bottom in 2020? And yet, it happened.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, the sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500 . However, with the words ‘all-time high’ becoming commonplace across U.S. equities, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.Circling back to the GDX ETF, on May 7, the senior miners inched closer to their May 2020 high. And while the development may seem bullish on the surface, the price action actually creates symmetry between the GDX ETF’s left and right shoulders. With May 2020’s peak occurring at nearly the same level, a move lower from here would only enhance the validity of the GDX ETFs H&S pattern.On top of that, this is the third time that the GDX ETF has poked its head above the upper trendline of its roughly one-and-a-half-month channel. An ominous sign, the GDX ETF’s swoon in late 2020/early 2021, occurred precisely after the senior miners delivered their third act. Furthermore, a small breakout without confirmation is akin to a promise from a friend that can’t keep his word. Thus, with the GDX ETF still underperforming gold on a relative basis, it’s important to analyze the recent price action within its proper context.Please see below:For more context, I wrote on May 5:The history might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and those who insist on ignoring it are doomed to repeat it. And there’s practically only one situation from more than the past four decades that is similar to what we see right now.It’s the early 2000s when the tech stock bubble burst. It’s practically the only time when the tech stocks were after a similarly huge rally. It’s also the only time when the weekly MACD soared to so high levels (we already saw the critical sell signal from it). It’s also the only comparable case with regard to the breakout above the rising blue trend channel. The previous move above it was immediately followed by a pullback to the 200-week moving average, and then the final – most volatile – part of the rally started. It ended on significant volume when the MACD flashed the sell signal. Again, we’re already after this point.The recent attempt to break to new highs that failed seems to have been the final cherry on the bearish cake.Why should I – the precious metals investor care?Because of what happened in the XAU Index (a proxy for gold stocks and silver stocks ) shortly after the tech stock bubble burst last time.What happened was that the mining stocks declined for about three months after the NASDAQ topped, and then they formed their final bottom that started the truly epic rally. And just like it was the case over 20 years ago, mining stocks topped several months before the tech stocks.Mistaking the current situation for the true bottom is something that is likely to make a huge difference in one’s bottom line. After all, the ability to buy something about twice as cheap is practically equal to selling the same thing at twice the price. Or it’s like making money on the same epic upswing twice instead of “just” once.And why am I writing about “half” and “twice”? Because… I’m being slightly conservative, and I assume that the history is about to rhyme once again as it very often does (despite seemingly different circumstances in the world). The XAU Index declined from its 1999 high of 92.72 to 41.61 – it erased 55.12% of its price.The most recent medium-term high in the GDX ETF (another proxy for mining stocks) was at about $45. Half of that is $22.5, so a move to this level would be quite in tune with what we saw recently.And the thing is that based on this week’s slide in the NASDAQ that followed the weekly reversal and the invalidation, it seems that this slide lower has already begun.“Wait, you said something about three months?”Yes, that’s approximately how long we had to wait for the final buying opportunity in the mining stocks to present itself based on the stock market top.The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008. Consequently, we might see the next major bottom – and the epic buying opportunity in the mining stocks – about three months after the general stock market tops. The NASDAQ might have already topped, so we’re waiting for the S&P 500 to confirm the change in the trend.The bottom line?New lows are likely to complete the GDX ETF’s bearish H&S pattern and set the stage for an even larger medium-term decline. And if the projection proves prescient, medium-term support (or perhaps even the long-term one) will likely emerge at roughly $21.But why ~$21?The target aligns perfectly with the signals from the GDX ETF’s 2020 rising wedge pattern. You can see it in the left part of the above chart. The size of the move that follows a breakout or breakdown from the pattern (breakdown in this case) is likely to be equal (or greater than) the height of the wedge. That’s what the red dashed line marks.The target is also confirmed when applying the Fibonacci extension technique. To explain, if we take the magnitude of the GDX ETF’s recent peak-to-trough decline and extrapolate it by multiplying it by the Fibonacci sequence, the output results in a target adjacent to $21. I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to show that in the above chart. Interestingly, the same technique was useful in 2020 in order to time the March bottom.The broad head-and-shoulders pattern with the horizontal neckline at about $31 points to the $21 level as the likely target.Likewise, when analyzing the situation through the lens of the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners are eliciting the same bearish signals. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that despite the recent strength, the GDXJ ETF is still trading below its medium-term rising support line (the thick black line below). More importantly, though, with the junior miners failing to reclaim this key level, their bearish H&S pattern remains intact.Even more ominous, the GDXJ ETF remains a significant underperformer of the GDX ETF. Despite sanguine sentiment and a strong stock market creating the perfect backdrop for the junior miners, the GDXJ ETF has failed to live up to the hype.To explain, I wrote previously:GDXJ is underperforming GDX just as I’ve been expecting it to. Once one realizes that GDXJ is more correlated with the general stock market than GDX is, GDXJ should be showing strength here, and it isn’t. If stocks don’t decline, GDXJ is likely to underperform by just a bit, but when (not if) stocks slide, GDXJ is likely to plunge visibly more than GDX.Expanding on that point, the GDXJ/GDX ratio has been declining since the beginning of the year, which is remarkable because the general stock market hasn’t plunged yet. However, once the general stock market suffers a material decline, the GDXJ ETF’s underperformance will likely be heard loud and clear.Please see below:So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Moreover, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio has recorded a major, confirmed breakdown. And with the ratio nowhere near recapturing its former glory, it’s another sign that a storm is brewing. Moreover, after moving back and forth for the last few months, not only has the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio broken below its rising support line (the upward sloping black line below), but the ratio has also broken below the neckline of its roughly 12-month H&S pattern (the dotted red line below). As a result, given the distance from the head to the neckline, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is on a collision course back to (at least) 0.050.Please see below:When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.Playing out as I expected, a sharp move lower was followed by a corrective upswing back to the now confirmed breakdown level (which is now resistance). Mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018, after breaking below its rising support line, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete, the current move lower still has plenty of room to run. Likewise, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme, the greenback could spoil the miners’ party once again.In addition, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.In conclusion, with gold, silver and mining stocks staying at the same springtime resort, their departure from reality implies plenty of jet lag at the end of their trip. And with the clock ticking, passengers boarding and their flight nearing takeoff, a return to real life is just around the corner. Moreover, with the USD Index long overdue for some R & R, a reversal of fortunes could leave the precious metals suffering severe envy. Thus, while gold, silver and mining stocks have enjoyed nothing but sun, sand and surf over the last few weeks, the pile of work that awaits them will likely keep them swamped over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Sees Limited Upside

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.05.2021 07:58
USDCHF faces strong resistanceThe US dollar struggled to bounce back after the US labor market showed inconsistencies. Despite a week-long consolidation above 0.9075, the bearish momentum was a reminder that sellers are still in charge of the price action.The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold territory may prompt short-term traders to take some chips off the table triggering a limited rebound.0.9100 is a tough resistance where trend-followers could be on standby. A failure to break out would lead to renewed pressure towards 0.8940.AUDUSD rallies towards February’s highThe Australian dollar has found solid support from rallies in commodity prices. The pair saw strong momentum after it cleared the triple top at 0.7810.From the daily chart’s perspective, a bullish close above the supply zone around 0.7850 could confirm the bullish MA and resume the uptrend from March 2020.The previous high at 0.8010 would be the next target. 0.7835 near the 30-hour moving average struggles as a support, which means that 0.7760 is the second line of defense in case of a deeper correction.XAGUSD hovers under major resistanceBullions prices grind higher as the US dollar remains under pressure. The recovery accelerated after silver broke above the daily resistance at 26.60.28.30 is a major hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout could extend the rally towards 30. Though an overbought RSI would suggest a potential retreat to attract more buying interest.The resistance-turned-support 27.10 is the first level to monitor. Further down, the demand zone between 26.15 and 26.56 is key in keeping the upward bias intact
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Tesla is at local dips. Time to buy?

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 11.05.2021 13:09
This article describes how Tesla is positioned now on the stock market, what headwinds and tailwinds it has, and what analysts forecast.US-China tensionsJoe Biden has left 25% tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles imposed by Donald Trump. As a result, Elon Musk’s plans to expand its Shanghai plant and make it a global export hub have been ruined. It’s not beneficial for Tesla, that’s why the company now is likely to decrease the proportion of China's output in its global production. What happens in China, stays in China There were disputes over how Tesla handles consumer data and whether it can violate the national safety rules. As a result, Tesla agreed to build a data center in Shanghai by the end of June and store the data gathered by Tesla’s cars locally.Tesla’s sales in China growTesla's sales in China have been rising even despite the regulatory pressure from the Chinese government. The company has generated $3 billion in revenue in China in the first quarter of 2021, it’s three times more than a year ago and accounts for 30% of total Tesla’s revenue.Competition is getting hotterHowever, Tesla is not the only electric vehicle producer in China. It’s competing with Nio, which is quite popular in China. Besides, electric-vehicle competition is growing around the globe: Lucid Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen. Chip shortageThere is a chip shortage around the world, and it creates some significant problems for electric-vehicle producers and Tesla as well. However, it cannot be viewed as a negative factor only for Tesla, it’s a challenge for the whole EV industry and also other sectors dependent on chips. Besides, it will only be a temporary setback.Buy or not to buy?It’s a tricky question as some analysts believe that Tesla has more room to fall further, while at the same time others forecast Tesla to skyrocket. For example, Wedbush's Dan Ives expects Tesla to reach $1000! Isn’t it too optimistic, what do you think?As you may have noticed, there are more headwinds than tailwinds for now, but Tesla tends to rise no matter what. So when such a company as Tesla is at the local dips, it’s likely to attract buyers as it has many investors that believe in the company and it’s still the #1 electric vehicle producer. Let’s look at what the charts will tell us!Tech analysisTesla has dropped out of the ascending channel. It’s approaching the psychological mark of $600.00. Since the RSI indicator is not yet below the 30.00 level, the stock may drop to this support level. However, the falling should stop at that point as the stock is already below the lower line of Bollinger Bands and the 200-day moving average just below $600 will be a strong barrier. When it reverses up, it may meet resistance levels at the 50-day moving average of $680.00 and late-April highs of $750.00. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.05.2021 15:49
Seemingly uneventful and tight range day in S&P 500 gave way to extraordinary selling once the 4,220 intraday support broke – extraordinary by recent standards. The bulls obviously have quite some damage to repair before thinking about taking on new highs. Prices have moved back into the prolonged consolidation, in what isn‘t a true breakdown though yet. Neither the smallcaps, nor the emerging markets, let alone S&P 500 fell on sharply rising volume, which speaks in favor of a bad day, chiefly driven by tech (yes, I‘m looking at you, $NYFANG) and weak credit markets. Look at market breadth – new highs new lows stunningly rose yesterday in spite of the 500-strong index losing quite a few dozen points.Classic risk off positioning, if only the defensives as a group did a lot better – but it could have been worse had commodities joined in the melee. They didn‘t, and they are thus the dog that didn‘t bark, detracting credibility from yesterday‘s stock market plunge (unless they catch up next, that is).Both copper and lumber reversed, but won‘t this turn out as another buying opportunity, especially in copper? Little has changed in the reflationary and reopening trades – financials managed to shake off the rising yields easily yesterday. True, VIX and put/call ratio aren‘t painting a picture of calmness, but especially the option traders are positioned a bit too bearishly at the moment. Again, it‘s a question of how long before the tech bottom hunters step in. Make no mistake though, growth is going to keep lagging behind value.Gold, silver and miners are in a vulnerable position even though neither the technical nor fundamental reasons behind their rally changed. The rising yields are a testament of rotation out of stocks into bonds not having worked yesterday, and should commodities such as copper get hurt again, precious metals would land in hot water likely. Thus far though, no sign thereof – the momentum remains with the bulls overall, and higher time frames confirm that.Miners are not flashing outrageous underperformance, merely a modest daily one – the short-term fate of the precious metals upleg will be determined by long-dated Treasuries, copper and should the dollar (or USD/JPY) move, then through the contribution of fiat currencies. Even a brief comparison of the USD Index and the dollar-yen pair reveals though that risk-on is the prevailing move of 2021.Crude oil was less hurt by all the selling yesterday, but should it break below $64 on a closing basis, $62 could very easily come next. The daily indicators have weakened, and the bulls don‘t appear ready to break above $66 next.Cryptos are also in a wait and see mode, yet with noticeably less bearish undertones than black gold. Bitcoin remains choppy around its flat 50-day moving average, and should better return trading above it – no prodding by Ethereum though helps. The bulls are still taking a short-term break.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 suffered a sizable daily setback, and the recent consolidation‘s lows are likely to have to be defended next. Deceleration of the daily declines accompanied by a lower knot ideally would be the first sign that I would be looking for – alongside a positive turn in the credit markets.Credit MarketsCorporate bonds showed no strength relative to long-dated Treasuries, and that doesn‘t bode well for today‘s session. High yield corporate bonds have though still been performing better in April than the two instruments represented by black lines on the above chart, which attests to risk-on being still the environment we‘re in.Technology and ValueTechnology gave up all the gains since Thursday, and $NYFANG broke below its rising blue support line, and the deterioration among the heavyweights continues. Besides tech, $TSLA illustrates that eloquently just like $ARKK. The rotation out of the behemoths is weighing down the index – this is the area where bleeding needs to stop.VolatilityThe VIX open within the body of Friday‘s candle (harami position) didn‘t bode well, and volatility having closed significantly above Friday‘s open, attests to the strength of yesterday‘s move. This spike doesn‘t appear as over yet.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners are in a vulnerable position, and consolidation of recent sharp gains would be healthy and desired. The volume in both gold and silver shows the sellers don‘t have enough conviction, and pullbacks remain buying opportunities regardless of the threatening nominal yields move (inflation expectations made a similarly sharp uptick yesterday).The weekly chart shows how little has changed, how minuscule power has been sapped yesterday. The upleg across the precious metals remains alive and well as we aren‘t crashing into a deflation.BitcoinBitcoin reverted back below the 50-day moving average, and neither Ethereum is crashing. The technical outlook is though turning neutral, and the bulls will have to prove themselves. Until prices return back above the blue moving average, Bitcoin remains short-term vulnerable.SummaryS&P 500 got under selling pressure that is showing no signs of abating, yet the weakness remains concentrated in quite a few tech names. Besides these, credit markets aren‘t doing fine either.Gold, silver and miners continue being resilient, and the coming correction would likely be a shallow one. Increasing nominal yields are countered by rising inflation expectations and copper prices, helping to keep the metals out of harm‘s way.Crude oil bulls will have to step up to the plate, and defend the unfolding upsing that‘s threating to crash below the recent lows.Bitcoin is getting sold off today as well, and the bullish to neutral short-term outlook of yesterday, is turning to a neutral one as a minimum.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Gold Jumps above $1,800. What’s Next?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.05.2021 16:54
Gold jumped above $1,800, and it’s the disappointing jobs data that added fuel to the fire.The gold market is a funny place. On Thursday (May 6), I complained that the yellow metal couldn’t surpass $1,800:The price of gold has been trading sideways recently as it couldn’t break out of the $1,700-$1,800 price range. This inability can be frustrating, but the inflationary pressure could help the yellow metal to free itself from the shackles.And voilà, just later that day, the price of gold finally jumped above $1,800, as the chart below shows. Hey, maybe I have to complain about gold more often?But jokes aside. The move is a big deal, as gold has finally broken above the key resistance level. What’s important here is that the breakthrough wasn’t caused by some negative geopolitical or economic shock, but rather by fundamental and sentiment factors.So, what happened? First, there is a weakness in the US dollar . With global economic recovery progressing, the safe-haven appeal of the greenback is simply vanishing. Another issue here is – and I pointed this out in the Fundamental Gold Report dedicated to the latest ECB’s meeting – that the pandemic in the Eurozone has reached its peak. So, the worst is already behind the euro area, and it can catch up with the US now, supporting the euro and gold against the dollar.Second, the bond yields have been heading lower recently . As one can see in the chart below, the real interest rates have corrected significantly since their peak in March. In early May, the 10-year TIPS yields slid further, returning to almost -0.90 percent.What is noteworthy here, the real interest rates declined more than the nominal interest rates. It resulted from the increase in the expected inflation. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate jumped in early May . As a reminder, I wrote on Thursday that “the inflationary pressure could help the yellow metal to free itself from the shackles” and this is exactly what happened.Implications for GoldWhat does gold’s jump above $1,800 imply for its future? Well, the crossing of an important obstacle is always a positive development. The decline in the interest rates, coupled with the weakness in the US dollar, means that the markets are convinced that the Fed would remain very dovish, even despite the rising inflation .Other positive news for the gold market is April’s nonfarm payrolls that came in below the forecasts. The US economy added only 266,000 jobs last month (see the chart below), although many analysts and even the FOMC members expected a nearly 1 million increase in employment. Such a disappointment made traders slash the bets on the pace of the Fed’s monetary tightening. A softer expected path of the federal funds rate is a fundamentally positive factor for gold.In other words, the weak employment report relieves a lot of the pressure put on the Fed to tighten its monetary policy. So, the US central bank will continue to provide monetary support, despite all the progress observed in the economy, and that easy stance will stay with us for longer than previously expected. In that sense, April’s disappointing jobs data may be a game-changer for gold, and it could add fuel to the recent rally that started on Thursday.Of course, one weak employment number doesn’t erase the impressive economic recovery. Moreover, I would like to see that gold hold the recent gains through the coming days before organizing a party for the gold bulls. However, it seems that I was right in saying that the second quarter would be much better than the first one. Gold is indeed gaining momentum! And, what’s really important, the yellow metal started to rise amid a strong economic recovery – it implies that we can be observing important, bullish shifts in the market sentiment towards gold.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – NASDAQ Tests Bulls’ Commitment - 12.05.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 12.05.2021 08:41
NAS 100 heads towards important supportThe tech index retreats as investors continue to rotate out of growth-sensitive stocks. A dead cat bounce to 13800 has met stiff selling pressure, turning the former support into a resistance.The nosedive below the temporary support level at 13400 is an indication that the short side has gained the upper hand.12880 is a critical support from the daily chart as a bearish breakout could initiate a reversal in the medium term.On the upside, the index may see a limited rebound while the RSI recovers into the neutrality area.EURUSD tests major resistanceThe US dollar consolidates as traders await inflation data later today.The price is currently hovering under the daily supply zone around 1.2200. A breakout would confirm the bullish MA and put the euro back on track towards 1.24.However, the pair could be vulnerable to the downside as an overbought RSI indicates overextension. 1.2055 is the immediate support should there be a lack of momentum buyers.Further down, 1.1990 near the 30-day moving average is a critical level to keep short-term sentiment upbeat.GBPAUD breaks above double topThe Australian dollar softens as commodity prices pull back. The pair has been grinding up steadily from its support base at 1.7780.The latest breakout above 1.8060 has shifted the action to the upside after two previous failed attempts.1.8200, a major resistance level on the daily chart would be the next on the list. Its breach could reverse the pound’s misfortune and turn the thirteen-month-long downtrend around.In the meantime, a retracement on the back of an overbought RSI may meet buying interest around 1.8000.
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War

Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.05.2021 16:00
Gold scored some victories over the past days, but it’s playing a risky game. One misstep and the yellow metal might lose the war.Sometimes, a good strategist needs to give up a few battles to eventually win the war. Or, at least, convince their enemy that they’re defeated while preparing a counterattack. Just the same, a chess player may need to sacrifice a piece in order to checkmate a king. Sun Tzu has spoken, and the Art of War translates well here.In the world of trading, the same rules often apply. A good investor needs to give up a few unfavorable days to eventually score a final victory. Again, controlling one’s emotions and adhering to patience are key. These principles are important when waiting out gold’s temporary upswings in a medium-term downswing, and also when waiting for gold’s eventual ascent. Don’t let short-term intraday moves cloud your vision.Yesterday (May 11), I wrote that the rally in gold and stocks might have just burnt itself out, and the markets didn’t wait long to agree with me.Is it 100% certain that the top is in? Absolutely not, as there are no certainties in any market, and sound position management should be utilized at all times. But based on what happened yesterday, and what we saw in today’s pre-market trading, the odds that the corrective top is already in have greatly increased.Let’s take a look at the charts for details, starting with the stock market .The Influence of the Stock MarketThe markets are self-similar (which is another way of saying that they have a fractal nature), which generally means that while the history tends to rhyme, it also tends to rhyme in similar shapes of alike or various sizes.For example, the rally from 2018–2020 seems very similar to the rally from 2020 to the present.Both rallies started after a sharp decline, and the first notable correction took the form of back-and-forth trading around the previous high. I marked those situations with green rectangles.Then the rally continued with relatively small week-to-week volatility. I created rising support lines based on the final low of the broad short-term consolidation and the first notable short-term bottom.This line was broken, and some back-and-forth trading followed, but it was only about half of the previous correction in terms of price and time.Then, we saw a sharp rally that then leveled off. And that was the top . The thing that confirmed the top was the visible breakdown below the rising support line right after stocks invalidated a tiny breakout to new highs. That’s what happened in February 2020, and that’s what happened this month.Combining this with the recent underperformance of the NASDAQ (the previous leader which just moved to new monthly lows) suggests that this might have indeed been the top.“But why didn’t the mining stocks or silver end yesterday’s session higher given the above, and the fact that stocks declined yesterday? Any tips on that?”I see two likely reasons.One is that the stock market reversed before the end of the day, so many investors and traders might have thought that the correction was already over, and they were eager to jump back into the market. This would explain why mining stocks (and GameStop) ended yesterday’s session higher.The second reason is that miners don’t necessarily slide right after the top. Sometimes, they tend to move back and forth, testing the previous high (on lower volume).That’s what happened in early January 2021, and that’s what happened yesterday. Did it change anything with regard to the bearish implications of the current situation? Not at all. Besides, the most bearish thing about gold stocks is visible on the long-term HUI Index chart.The HUI IndexWhile corrective short-term upswings within a medium-term downtrend can feel discouraging, it’s important to remember that similar instances occurred in 2008 and 2012. And to some extent also in early 2000.The head and shoulders patterns from 2007 – 2008 and from 2009 – 2012 had the final tops – the right shoulders – very close to the price where the left shoulders topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.This week’s intraday high in the HUI Index was 307.56, and yesterday’s closing price (the highest closing price we saw recently) was 302.92. That’s one-tenth of an index point away from the left shoulder’s top; if the HUI slides from here – which seems likely – we’ll have a near-perfectly symmetrical H&S pattern with very bearish implications for the following weeks and months.I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw. To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.Consequently, the recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short term only.Let’s get back to the broader tops for a while.Gold, Its Battles and the WarIn August 2020 – at the top – gold’s peak was forming over approximately 4 trading days, and it plunged on the fifth day.At the beginning of this year – at the yearly top – gold was peaking for 2-4 trading days (depending on how one treats the initial daily decline that was then followed by a small corrective upswing) and it plunged on the fifth day.Today is the fourth day of what is likely to become a topping pattern (we will know for sure only after gold slides). Consequently, the fact that gold didn’t slide profoundly yesterday (except for the intraday decline) is not odd at all. Conversely, it’s in tune with the previous topping patterns.Moreover, please note that since gold is repeating (to some extent) its 2011-2013 performance (actually, more of an average of gold’s trading performances from the above period and from 2008), it’s particularly normal for it to form a broader top here.I previously wrote that the situation is similar to 2008 in a way and to 2012-2013 in a slightly different way. When I’m looking at it now, it’s quite normal that the gold market is mixing both previous performances. But it’s always easy to see things with the benefit of hindsight.In 2008, before the final slide, we had clearly lower lows as well as lower highs. During the 2012-2013 consolidation we had a more or less horizontal pattern that was then followed by the final slide. Right now, we have something in between – we have lower highs and lower lows, but it’s not as clear as it was in 2008.Back in 2008, it took gold 29 weeks to move from the initial (March 2008) top to the final (October 2008) top.Back in 2011-2013, it took gold 55 weeks to move from the initial (September 2011) top to the final (October 2013) top.The arithmetic average of the above is 42 weeks, and last week was the 39 th week after the August 2020 top. If gold stops here or shortly, it will be almost right in the middle of the similarity between both periods.Consequently, the way gold and mining stocks are performing now is perfectly normal for a medium-term decline – it’s not a game-changer. The medium-term forecast for gold remains bearish.What’s Going on With the Euro?Let’s get back to the issue of head and shoulders patterns – this time in the context of the currency markets.What one might not notice at first sight, but what is very important, the USD Index just invalidated a small breakdown below the head-and-shoulders pattern, and it rallied back above its neckline. This is a classic buy sign and a sign that the breakdown below the rising support line will be invalidated shortly.There’s also a potential head and shoulders pattern present in the euro.The European currency moved to the line that’s parallel to the rising neck level of the potential head and shoulders pattern. If it now declines and moves to new yearly lows, the situation will be extremely bearish – what is more, not only for the euro but also for the precious metals market, which tends to move in tune with the dollar competitor.As far as silver is concerned, there’s not much new to report – my forecast for silver hasn’t become more bullish recently. The white metal continues to repeat its 2019-2020 performance, and it’s after a short-term period of outperformance relative to gold, which indicates major tops. Unlike gold or mining stocks, silver recently moved to its early-2021 high.Interestingly, please note that silver is repeating more or less the same pattern from the past that the general stock market does. And we all know what happened to silver (and mining stocks) when the general stock market plunged in March 2020.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Where's The Beef? Is The US Fed Behind The Inflation Curve?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 12.05.2021 17:24
We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) - weighted by the US Dollar and VIX.  We've been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values.  Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective.We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, and confluence price levels.  Historically, when we see a chart that channels in a sideways range, one can often identify high and low price thresholds while also trying to find a confluence level (where a continued rise or decline in price is likely to continue). We can see how the US Fed reacted to rising inflationary concerns almost immediately as the C2SC Index rose near or above 6.5 (the RED Confluence level) throughout the past 25 years.  Each time, in 1994, 1999, and 2005, when a period of increasing inflationary trends, the Fed was quick to act to contain inflation.  The only time the Fed acted differently was in 2013~2015 and in 2020~now.Where's The Fed?  Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of PanicIn 2013~2015, the C2SC Index rose above the Confluence level (the RED line) multiple times, yet the Fed kept rates extremely low – ignoring inflationary risks at that time.  Then, in 2016, the Fed raised rates very slightly in an effort to test the global market's reaction to tightening financial policy ahead of a big US election event.  By mid-2017, the C2SC index started rising and the US Fed continued to raise interest rates.  By late 2017, the C2SC index had risen past the RED Confluence level again and the US Fed continued to raise rates well into early Summer 2018. In August 2018, the Fed attempted another 0.25% raise that broke the market trend and prompted a broad market decline into December 2018.  In reaction to this breakdown in US markets, the US Fed dropped the Fed Funds Rate from 2.5% to 1.5% in a panic move.  It stayed at that level until COVID-19 hit in February/March 2020.Looking at the C2SC index, commodities have rallied more than 300% above the past 25 years of historic highs recently while Yields and Gold/Silver continue to stay rather muted in trends.  Our concern is that the US Fed, in an effort to spark a solid post-COVID-19 economic recovery, has ignored the risks related to the extreme excess phase rally taking place throughout the globe in commodities, Cryptos, non-tangible speculative assets (NFTs, digital and others) as well as the risks associated with an eventual raising of interest rates to curb this inflationary excess phase.  Gold and Silver have just started what appears to be a new bullish price trend.  Will the US Fed be pushed to raise rates soon to curb this incredible bubble rally?We started bouncing around the idea that the US Fed was inadvertently prompting a South Seas Company type of bubble event by allowing gross amounts of capital into the markets and artificially keeping interest rates near zero.  For those of you who don't know the story of the South Seas  Company in London (1720), you can read more about it here: https://www.britannica.com/event/South-Sea-BubbleFOMO Hyper-inflation Continues (until it ends)In short, The South Seas Company was awarded £7 million to finance the war against France by the House of Lords.  This bill, known as the South Sea Bill, allowed the South Sea Company a monopoly on the trade to South America (mostly Slave trade) and was expected to be a boost to the companies bottom line as the war with France ended with the Treaty of Utrecht (1713).  Over the next 5+ years, the South Seas Company enjoyed robust profits and trade. Shares of the South Sea Company rose to 10x their value.  Then, the South Seas Company, with King George I of Great Britain as governor of the company in 1781, suggested taking over the national debt of Great Britain in 1720. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The South Seas Company accomplished this incredible feat and shares started to skyrocket higher from $128.5 to over $1000 in just 7 months.  As the hype continued to drive speculation and rumors, other stocks (some newly formed companies) were quick to catch the hype and quickly rallied to extreme highs as false statements, word-of-mouth hype and a general hyperbolic frenzy continued to drive speculation.What brought down the South Seas Company was unbridled rumors, outright lies, hyperbolic speculation, and, eventually, a flood of money from France's modernized economy.  When the trend finally broke down, it took about 12 months for the entire bubble to deflate – leaving speculative investors holding empty bags.The rally of the South Seas Company is very similar to what we are seeing right now in the US economy and in digital assets.  There were a number of facets in place to drive this type of hyperbolic rally.  First, the South Seas Company took over the national debt – essentially acting like the US Federal Reserve for Great Britian.  Secondly, the wild speculation related to ongoing business activities and future expectations prompted an over-enthusiastic buying frenzy – driving prices higher by 10x traditional valuation levels.In the end, with all the speculation, hype and people of title involved, the expected profits and returns from the South Seas Company never really materialized.  The stock price started to decline and finally broke downward very sharply near late 1720 – almost 3 months after it peaked.Is The US Fed Preparing To Make A Move Soon?The recent rally in the US stock markets has seemed to stall recently, as can be seen in this Smart Cash Index chart below.  Still, the recent rally since the November 2020 elections is nothing short of amazing – very similar to the rally in 2017 and into early 2018 – almost straight up.Our research team believes a continued market rally may keep attempting to “melt-up” as long as the US Fed does not step in to try to curb inflationary aspects of the markets.  It is hard to argue that traders and investors are going to suddenly change their minds in the midst of this FOMO rally - although, it does happen at some point.There are really two concerns related to how this may end: the US Fed suddenly acting to curb inflation by raising rates and/or the consumers suddenly realizing the valuation levels have exceeded realistic expectations.  We feel the rise in commodity prices as well as the current uptrend in precious metals and Copper may be pushing consumers closer and closer to that sudden realization that valuations are grossly advanced in comparison to real expectations.When you look at this Smart Cash Index Monthly chart, below, you see that the Fed Funds Rate is still anchored near ZERO while the Smart Cash Index is nearing the highest levels since the January 2018 Ultimate Peak.  The primary difference is that the US Federal Reserve is not acting to raise rates like they were in 2018 or even just before the Housing Bubble (2005~06).  This suggests the rally may continue in a hyper-inflation trend and may push well beyond anyone's expectations in the near future. Remember, our C2SC Heat Index is showing the current rally is nearly 300%+ above normal upper ranges.  How far will it go?  We really don't know how far this could continue to rally or where the ultimate peak is going to set up.  All we can suggest at this point in time is that we've entered uncharted waters and we don't have many historical reference points to use for our analysis. All we can do is ride this trend out using our advanced price modeling systems and watch for signs of a breakdown in support and correlative assets (like Precious Metals, Bonds, Utilities, and the Fed Funds Rate). If the Fed suddenly starts making moves to address pending inflation, then we may see some big volatility hit the markets.  We feel the Fed will slowly move to address inflationary concerns over the next 12+ months – not move in a sudden, aggressive manner. We need to watch how commodities continue to rally and how consumers react to these inflationary price concerns.  If global consumers suddenly shift away from spending as prices continue to rally, then we may start to see a dynamic shift in how the economy continues to expand/recover.  Consumers become very protecting of capital/resources when an economy shifts from expansion to contraction.Either way, there are going to be some really big trends in 2021 and 2022 for traders/investors.  This is the type of setup that can make fortunes for skilled traders/investors.  The bigger question is, will you be ready to jump into the strongest sectors when this downside trending ends?  Do you know which sectors present the best opportunities for future profits?  You can learn more about how I identify and trade the markets by watching my FREE step-by-step guide to finding and trading the best sectors. Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months.  Staying ahead of these sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets. My BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers. Sign up today!Have a great week!
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – US Dollar Bounces Off Key Levels

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.05.2021 08:12
USDJPY rebounds from Fibonacci levelThe US dollar jumped after April’s CPI rose 3% YoY nearly doubling markets’ expectations.The greenback has found solid support after a double-dip at the 61.8% (108.30) Fibonacci retracement level.The bullish momentum above 109.20 indicates buyers’ commitment to pushing beyond the recent consolidation range. A close above 109.70 could open the path towards 110.50.With the RSI in the overbought area, profit-taking may briefly drive the price south, 108.65 is the closest support in case of a pullback.GBPUSD reaches supply zoneSterling retreats as the greenback rallies across the board on upbeat inflation. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone (1.4200) on the daily chart.A combination of profit-taking and surging interest for the US dollar could trigger a deep correction. An RSI divergence suggests a loss in the upward momentum, and when this happens in the proximity of a major resistance may foreshadow a reversal.1.4010 then 1.3890 are the next support levels if buyers start to dump their stakes.USOIL rises towards March’s highWTI crude climbed after the International Energy Agency said demand would outpace supply.The price action has kept its bullish bias after it bounced back from the demand zone around 64.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A close above the previous peak at 66.60 would prompt more buyers to join the rally.Last March’s high at 67.90 would be the next target and its clearance may send the price towards 70s. On the downside, the previous resistance at 64.90 has turned into a support.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 13.05.2021 12:41
It’s been a massive rally over the last 15 months in the crypto sector since bitcoin bottom at US$3,800 on March 13th, 2020. reaching price at around US$65,000 bitcoin saw a price explosion of more than 1,600%! Now however the sector seems ripe for some form of a healthy pullback and a breather. Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term!ReviewBitcoin year to date, Daily Chart as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewSince the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 100%. Thus, the outperformance of Bitcoin compared to almost all other asset classes continued mercilessly. It seems as if bitcoin, or rather the crypto sector, wants to suck up everything like a black hole.Bitcoin´s waning momentum is a warning signalHowever, the Bitcoin markets have also been witnessing an increasingly waning momentum since late February. In particular, the pace of the rise had slowed down more and more since prices pushed above US$60,000 in March for the first time. Although another new all-time high was reached on April 14th at around US$65,000, the bulls are showing more and more signs of fatigue after the spectacular rally. Interestingly enough, this last new all-time high coincided exactly with the stock market debut of Coinbase.Only a few days later, a significant price slide down to just under US$50,000 happened, which was caused by a huge wave of liquidations. According to data provider Bybt, traders lost a total of more than US$10.1 billion that Sunday through liquidations forced by crypto exchanges. More than 90% of the funds liquidated that day came from bullish bets on Bitcoin or other digital currencies. In this regard, the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance was at the center of the earthquake with liquidation worth nearly US$5 billion. As the price of bitcoin fell, many of these bets were automatically liquidated, putting further pressure on the price and leading to a vicious cycle of further liquidations. Many (especially inexperienced) crypto traders were wiped out without warning.Year to date gains sorted by market-cap. Source Messari, May 10th 2021.After a quick recovery back to US$56,000, bitcoin continued its correction and fell back to US$47,000 by April 25. Since then, it has managed a remarkable recovery, as the bitcoin bulls are trying hard to restart the uptrend. So far, this recovery has at least reached a high of US$59,600. Nevertheless, the price development of bitcoin remains rather tough until recently, while numerous altcoins and so called “shitcoins” experienced incredible price explosions in recent weeks.The exciting question now is whether the current recovery remains just a countermove within a larger correction or whether the turnaround has already been seen and Bitcoin is therefore on the way to new all-time highs?Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the weekly chart, bitcoin has been stuck at the broad resistance zone between US$58,000 and US$65,000 for the past two and a half months. At the same time, the bulls continue trying to break out of the uptrend channel which is in place since 14 months. However, the recent pullback has so far only begun to clear the overbought situation, if at all. A somewhat larger pullback or simply the continuation of the consolidation would certainly do the market good. On the downside, the support zone between US$41,000 and US$45,000 remains the predestined support zone in case the bears should actually show some more penetration. If, on the other hand, price rise above approx. US$61,000, the chances for a direct continuation to new all-time highs increases quite a lot.Weekly Chart with a fresh sell signalOverall, the big picture remains bullish and higher bitcoin prices remain very likely in the medium to longer term. However, since reaching US$ 58,000 for the first time at the end of February, bitcoin has been increasingly weakening in recent weeks. Another healthy pullback towards the support zone of US$41,000 to US$45,000 USD could recharge the bull´s batteries. With fresh powers a breakout to new all-time highs in the summer is likely. Obviously, a good buying opportunity cannot be derived from the weekly chart at the moment. Rather, the stochastic sell signal calls for patience and caution.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, bitcoin slipped out of a bearish wedge on April 14th and has been attempting a countermovement since the low at just under US$47,000. However, this recovery is somewhat tenacious and currently hangs on the upper edge of the uptrend channel. Given the overbought stochastic and the relatively large distance to the exponential 200-day moving average (US$41,694), another pullback has an increased probability. The liquidation wave on April 18th clearly showed how quickly the whole thing can slide, given the exuberant speculation with derivatives and leverage.Of course, the bulls (and thus rising prices) have always a clear advantage in a bull market. Also, in view of the huge monetary expansions, speculation on the short side is not recommended. One is better advised with regular partial profit-taking (without selling one’s core long positions completely) as well as a solid liquidity reserve, with which one can take advantage of the opportunities that arise in the event of more significant pullbacks. The blind “buy & hold” or “hodl” strategy has also proven its strengths and can rightfully be maintained given the bullish medium to longer-term outlook.Daily Chart now on a sell signalSummarizing the daily chart, bitcoin is so far “only” in a countermovement within the pullback that began on April 14th. Only with a breakout above approx. US$61,000 the bulls would clearly be gaining the upper hand again. In this case, a rally towards approx. US$69,000 USD becomes very possible. On the downside, however, bitcoin prices below US$53,000 would signal that the bears have successfully fended off the breakout above the upper edge of the uptrend channel in the short term. The next step would then be a continuation of the correction and thus lower prices in the direction of the support zone around US$44,000 as well as the rising exponential 200-day moving average.Sentiment Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin Optix as of May 9th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe rather short-term “Bitcoin Optix” currently reports a balanced sentiment. What is striking is the fact that the last sentiment highs since February have always been weaker. I.e. the sentiment momentum is falling. At the same time, the temporary panic on April 25th brought an exaggeration to the downside (panic low = green circle), with which the ongoing recovery can be explained.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex and rather long-term “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” currently indicates a slightly exaggerated optimism or “increased greed”.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the very long-term comparison, sentiment is somewhat overly optimistic.Overall, quantitative sentiment analysis is increasingly sending warning signals. In particular, the decreasing momentum of the sentiment peaks with simultaneously exploding altcoin prices must be taken seriously. Therefore, a contrarian entry opportunity is definitely not present in the crypto space. Instead, one is well advised to wait patiently for the next wave of panic or liquidation.Seasonality Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxStatistically, the sideways spring phase for bitcoin ends at the beginning of May. This has often been followed by a sharp rally into June. However, this year bitcoin only reached an important high on April 14th and has been consolidating since then. Hence, the seasonal pattern doesn’t really match up with this year’s price action so far.In conclusion, the seasonality is basically changing from neutral to green these days. However, the course of the year has not been in line with the seasonal pattern. A continuation of the consolidation therefore seems more likely.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewAt prices of US$58,075 for one bitcoin and US$1,835 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold-ratio is currently trading at around 31.7. This means that you currently have to pay almost 32 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Put the other way around, one troy ounce of gold currently costs about 0.03 bitcoin. Thus, bitcoin has been running sideways against gold at a high level for a good month and a half.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro Outlook and Crack-Up-BoomFED Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 7th 2021.The U.S. Federal Reserve’s total assets continued to rise in recent weeks, reaching a new all-time high of USD 7,810 billion. The biggest increase was in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, which rose by USD 25.66 billion to a total of USD 5,040 billion.ECB Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 4th 2021.The ECB balance sheet also reached a new all-time high of EUR 7,568 billion. Driven by ultra-lax monetary policy (quantitative easing), total assets rose by a further EUR 9.7 billion. The ECB balance sheet is now equivalent to 76.2% of euro area GDP.Bloomberg Commodity Index. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Due to these massive monetary expansions, the consequences of this irresponsible central bank policy are now slowly but surely becoming more and more apparent. For example, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has more than doubled since March 2020 and most recently rose to its highest level since 2011. Numerous commodities are reaching new highs, fueling inflation fears. The loss of confidence in fiat currencies typical of the crack-up boom is taking hold. This mass psychological phenomenon is gradually building up and may already be unstoppable. The accelerating crack-up boom is the ideal environment for precious metals, commodities and cryptocurrencies.Mentions of Inflation. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Even Bank of America (BofA) recently acknowledged in a commentary that “inflation is here.” In doing so, they referenced the exploded number of mentions of “inflation.”Conclusion: Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termEthereum new all-time highs © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.One of the main beneficiaries of the increasing flight out of the fiat systems in recent months has been cryptocurrencies. First and foremost, it was bitcoin which led the way up for the entire sector. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, has risen to a new all-time high well above $4,300. Ethereum dominance reached a new record of 19%. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has thus gained nearly 500%.Bitcoin Dominance © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.The market capitalization of the entire crypto sector did reach more than US$2.5 trillion. Mainly due to the price explosion in Ethereum and Altcoins during recent weeks, Bitcoin dominance had been fading down to below 44%.Ethereum Market Capitalization © Messari via Twitter @RyanWatkins_, May 10, 2021.With a Bitcoin dominance of below 40%, however, the air has always been very thin for altcoins in the past, and sharp pullbacks followed in 2017 and 2018. The speculative madness became particularly dramatic in the case of the fun and meme coin Dogecoin. This essentially worthless coin has been rising from US$0.005 to US$0.672 in just a few months, making it worth almost as much as the Daimler Group. Once again, the markets are thus providing an example of the extent to which the vast quantities of fiat currencies created out of thin air are distorting everything and fueling wild speculation.Be careful, be patient!Overall, it is imperative to advise caution in the current environment. While a long-term top in bitcoin is not yet in sight, a significant correction or sharp pullback should not come as a surprise and would be good for the overheated sector. The “worst case” envisages a pullback in the direction of around US$44,000. In this area, bitcoin would already be a buying opportunity again. In this scenario, the altcoins would temporarily but very likely take a severe beating. Subsequently, bitcoin could take the lead again and march on towards US$100,000 once this pullback is done. Alternatively, the tenacious sideways consolidation continues until bitcoin prices above US$61,000 confirm the continuation of the rally to new all-time highs.Analysis sponsored and initially published on May 10th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on May 13th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|May 13th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin crashing, Bitcoin dominance, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum correction, Gold, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
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Everything Going Down the Inflation Drain?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.05.2021 15:41
The inflation scare amplified by CPI data caught the mainstream off guard, and the S&P 500 made no attempt at the opening gap. Both the VIX and put/call ratio sharply rose to levels unseen in quite a while – while volatility remains well below the late Jan, Feb, or early Mar spikes, the options ratio keeps trending higher since late Feb.Technology disappointed and so did the tech heavyweights, but these might put up a fight in the tentative support zone reached. The heavy selling didn‘t spare value stocks or the Russell 2000 either. Emerging markets suffered too, amplified by the rush into the dollar. While steeply up on the day, the greenback is having issues meaningfully extending gains today as not only the USD/JPY pair highlights.Are there any bright spots in the indiscriminate selling across the many assets?Credit markets certainly aren‘t one – neither corporate nor Treasury ones. Unless these turn thus facilitating the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebound, the relief stock market rallies can‘t be trusted yet. Commodities and precious metals held up relatively well, but their test is coming – should the Fed get serious about fighting inflation, commodity superstars such as lumber, copper (extending to silver) would suffer – don‘t look for that though – all we‘re experiencing now, is:(...) a risk-off move driven by the growing inflation threat – the market is getting attentive again. How long before it forces the Fed to talk, act and not play ostrich? The evidence isn‘t strong thus far, but there is a lot of time left till the Jun Fed meeting. Needless to say, bold moves would crater risk-on assets, which is why I‘m not expecting any real action yet with the 10-year yield...… at 1.69% only, which isn‘t yet serious enough to spur the Fed into action.Gold and miners remain relatively resilient, and one isn‘t leading the other to the downside. With high inflation already here (don‘t look for too much relief once the low year-on-year comparison base is history), real rates are turning more negative – and nominal ones aren‘t yet catching up onto what‘s coming. Seriously, I don‘t know why majority of market participants have been caught this much off guard by the inflation data, which is the basis of cost-push inflation I had been talking quite many times already.Caught in the selling wave eventually, black gold cratered overnight but not before I took sizable oil profits off the table. The tide appears to be turning though as the low $64 held earlier today, so I have issued an Intraday Update for Oil #1 featuring new trading position details.And the same profit-taking happened in Bitcoin too, via a waiting exit order right below the rising support line connecting its Apr and May lows that I talked yesterday. What a headline-facilitated plunge it brought (as if Elon Musk didn‘t know about the real world costs of crypto mining earlier etc.), not sparing Ethereum either. No surprise here, let‘s keep an eye on the bottom forming next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookBottomless S&P 500 pit that doesn‘t attract buyers to step in just yet. The obvious support in sight is the 50-day moving average, but how much of an undershoot it would take to turn stocks around? We haven‘t yet seen deceleration of the daily declines accompanied by a lower knot ideally, though today‘s session is shaping up promising for precisely this outcome.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio with overlaid S&P 500 prices shows that the latter are taking a lead (i.e. being more panicky) when it comes to the unfolding selling wave. HYG certainly didn‘t enthuse yesterday, and neither did the less risky counterparts.Technology and ValueValue and growth sold off in tandem, and the question remains whether $NYFANG support zone would hold. Examining the volume and steepness of the price declines, chances are it would, which has positive implications for $NDX naturally as well. Once yields stabilize, animal spirits would start returning, but don‘t look for them arriving in force very soon – there is quite some technical damage to repair first.Inflation ExpectationsTreasury yields are slowly but surely catching up on to the inflation scare. The long consolidation in yields is in its latter stages, and inflation expectations didn‘t wait in continuing their upward march. One more reason why gold is taking the selling left and right, in its stride.Gold, Silver and MinersThe caption says it all – gold keeps up bullishly consolidating, and odds are that the nominal yields won‘t bite now that inflation is finally broadly recognized to be an issue. What a wait!Silver didn‘t lead to the downside yesterday either, and the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio is still underpinning the precious metals upleg, which I am not really looking to sink into the early spring desperation.BitcoinBitcoin waterfall arrived, and prices haven‘t convincingly stabilized so far. Even Ethereum was hurt in the selling, but no issues, it seems a question of time only before cryptos turn up again. Stay tuned!SummaryS&P 500 is showing signs of stabilization, and much depends upon the tech and credit markets performance next. Today should provide modestly optimistic signs, by no means though guaranteed in the panic gripping the markets since Monday. Once S&P 500 and Nasdaq come to terms with the rising inflation and stop worrying about a Fed response this early, the 500-strong index would take on the recent highs once again. Gold, silver and miners are still well positioned to repel the downside pressures, with silver being arguably the most (short-term) vulnerable now. The basebuilding continues, and the only question remaining is how much of it is still ahead before the next upswing (amply supported by negative real rates) arrives.Crude oil lived up to its volatile reputation, but the tide appears turning here as well. Amid the headlines and positive seasonality, my outlook on black gold remains bullish.Bitcoin has quite some recovering ahead, and its stabilization has started. I would look for indications of decreased vulnerability next, which are obviously at a much lower level in Ethereum.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Inflation Monster Rears Its Ugly Head. Will Gold Beat It?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.05.2021 16:33
Inflation surged 4.2% in April, but gold declined in response. What is happening?Unbelievable! The “non-existent” inflation keeps getting stronger. The CPI increased 0.8% in April , after rising 0.6% in March. The pundits cannot blame energy prices for this jump, as the energy index decreased slightly. This shows that the surge in inflation wasn’t caused just by the base effect. Apart from energy, all major component indexes increased last month. In particular, the index for used cars and trucks rose 10.0%, which was the largest monthly increase since the series began in 1953.As a result, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, soared even stronger in April, i.e., 0.9%, following a 0.3% jump in March. It was the largest monthly increase since April 1982. But still, there is no inflationary pressure in the economy…And now for the best part, the true crème de la crème of the recent BLS report on inflation : As the chart below shows, the overall CPI surged 4.2% over the 12 months ending in April , while the core CPI jumped 3.0%. These annual rates followed, respectively, 2.6% and 1.6% increases in March.So, there was a huge acceleration in inflation last month! The last occurrence of such high inflation was in 2008 during the Great Recession . The quickening was a surprise for many analysts, but not for me. When analyzing the March CPI report , I wrote that it wasn’t an outlier:What’s important is that the recent jump in inflation is not a one-off event. We can expect that high inflation will stay with us for some time, or it can accelerate further next month.And indeed, inflation escalated in April. In May, however, inflation could be softer, but it will remain relatively elevated, in my view.Implications for GoldWhat does the hastening in inflation imply for the precious metals market? Well, the London P.M. Gold Fix has barely moved, as the chart below shows. What’s more, the New York spot gold prices have decreased in the aftermath of the April report on the CPI.What happened? Shouldn’t gold have reacted more positively to the surprising speeding up of inflation? As an inflation hedge – it should. But this is far more complicated. First, the bond yields have increased to reflect higher inflation, as traders started to bet that the Fed would have to hike interest rates faster than previously expected.But the April CPI report won’t force the U.S. central bank to alter its monetary policy and adopt a more hawkish line . After all, they expected acceleration in inflation, and they will simply describe it as a transitory development. As a reminder, the Fed focuses now more on the labor market than price stability – and with employment still more than 8 million short of the pre-pandemic level, the Fed will likely maintain its dovish stance .Indeed, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated that the U.S. central bank is far away from tightening its monetary policy and confirmed that higher inflation than anticipated won’t alter the Fed’s course, as it would prove to be temporary:The economy remains a long way from our goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved (…) This is one data point, as was the labor report (...) We have been saying for some time that reopening the economy would put some upward pressure on prices.What’s more, although traders focused initially on the implications of higher inflation on the federal funds rate and the U.S. monetary policy, in the longer-term gold should come into more favor as a hedge against higher inflation or even stagflation – after all, in April, we witnessed surprisingly disappointing nonfarm payrolls and a surge in inflation. Of course, single reports are not enough, but inflationary risks have definitely risen recently, and we could see some portfolio rebalancing toward gold later this year.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
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Intraday Market Analysis – S&P 500 Sees Bids On Trendline

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.05.2021 08:09
SPX 500 rebounds from daily trendlineThe S&P 500 reverses sharp decline as investors digest soaring consumer prices.On the daily timeframe, the index saw strong buying interest on the rising trendline (4040) from March 2020. In conjunction with the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory, traders were eager to pick up bargains. The sharp correction may end as swiftly as it started if buyers succeed in pushing above 4150.That would confirm the bullish MA cross off the major support. From there the price could rally back to the previous peak at 4144.NZDUSD bounces off supportThe risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar swings up as the ‘risk-off mood recedes. The pair has found support along with the 30-day moving average, above the demand zone around 0.7120.An oversold RSI could have led the sell-side to take profit at the support, turning the price around in the process. However, the kiwi faces multiple technical headwinds.The bulls will need to close above 0.7240 to regain the upper hand. Then 0.7305 is another key resistance. 0.7045 is the second support in case of a bearish breakout.XAUUSD finds Fibonacci supportGold struggles to hold on to its gains after the US dollar’s latest surge. The price action has met strong selling pressure at 1845, resistance from last February’s sell-off.It would be too soon to call a reversal, however, as the underlying momentum remains bullish. The precious metal has bounced back from the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1811) with the RSI skimming over the oversold area.The psychological level of 1800 sits at the 50% retracement level. A breakout above 1845 may extend the rally towards 1870.SPX 500 rebounds from daily trendlineThe S&P 500 reverses sharp decline as investors digest soaring consumer prices.On the daily timeframe, the index saw strong buying interest on the rising trendline (4040) from March 2020. In conjunction with the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory, traders were eager to pick up bargains. The sharp correction may end as swiftly as it started if buyers succeed in pushing above 4150.That would confirm the bullish MA cross off the major support. From there the price could rally back to the previous peak at 4144.NZDUSD bounces off supportThe risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar swings up as the ‘risk-off mood recedes. The pair has found support along with the 30-day moving average, above the demand zone around 0.7120.An oversold RSI could have led the sell-side to take profit at the support, turning the price around in the process. However, the kiwi faces multiple technical headwinds.The bulls will need to close above 0.7240 to regain the upper hand. Then 0.7305 is another key resistance. 0.7045 is the second support in case of a bearish breakout.XAUUSD finds Fibonacci supportGold struggles to hold on to its gains after the US dollar’s latest surge. The price action has met strong selling pressure at 1845, resistance from last February’s sell-off.It would be too soon to call a reversal, however, as the underlying momentum remains bullish. The precious metal has bounced back from the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1811) with the RSI skimming over the oversold area.The psychological level of 1800 sits at the 50% retracement level. A breakout above 1845 may extend the rally towards 1870.
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Silver’s market manipulation is your way in

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.05.2021 09:44
The only chance to participate in a rigged game and come out ahead is beating them in their own game. One way of stacking the odds in your favor is to recognize patterns within the markets, and market manipulation is just that, a pattern.We believe strongly that Silver prices will see new all-time highs by the end of the year. We also believe in a high probability for Silver prices to reach near triple-digit price levels. And we know just because one knows direction and targets does not mean one arrives at these prices with a position intact or a position at all.Here are a few examples of what we mean.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The minefield:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 13th, 2021.We tried to illustrate that a single event of chart characteristics could point towards volatility or otherwise trading instrument characteristics on the daily chart above. The sum of all variances of Silver events, although points clearly at aiming to discourage the investor and short-term traders alike. Typically the daily time frame is the entry time frame for longer-term plays like weekly and monthly time frame setups. It is challenging to find propper low-risk entry points. Here are the obstacles for the market participant to enter the market:dark cloud cover and bullish engulfing candlestick patterns are extreme reversal patterns typically much rarer in occurrenceeach range gets its highs and lows taken out which can be described “fishing for stops” (orange boxes)the sheer amount of yellow wicks shows the general volatility and challenges for low-risk stop placementconsistent pattern failuresfollow up day retracement levels of 70 to 90 percent are outside the normrare but extreme trend days irrespective of the market is trending or rangingJust to name a few. Silver in US-Dollar, 60 Minute Chart, But that is not all:Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of May 13th, 2021.Since our recent chartbook release about spoofing activities in the Silver market, we have been feverishly working on identifying various intraday market behaviors that are atypical to typical market behavior as a whole and the Silver market specifically. Our findings confirmed that individual patterns aren’t uncommon, but the sheer sum of patterns is definitely not normal.A look at the intraday 60-minute chart above, a time frame entry tool often used for daily and weekly time frame setups, is concerning:Every extreme gets faded.Reversal patterns are dominating the field.Previous days lows get gunned for stops.Ranges get spiked out for stops to be hit in both directions.Range expansions are happening in both directions.And all this by observing just a few days back. There is much more.Silver in US-Dollar, 60 Minute Chart, The cure:Silver in US-Dollar, 60 minute chart as of May 13th, 2021.So what can be done? Let us rather focus on solutions versus a minefield of obstacles. The most predominant patterns we found were volume and time-based. A market this thick can not sustain manipulation through the significant market hour activity of the world taking place. Moves getting artificially faded mainly before the Asian session open and the British market open for Silver. To protect your risk, you need to enter the market at the following time slot and counter fade: 20:30 EST to 21:30 EST. We found this time segment the one of least risk when used in conjunction with our Quad exit strategy, which allows for risk mitigation by taking shortly after entry half of the position of the table.The chart illustrates with green and red horizontal lines that at each day at this same time, an imminent move follows to allow for this first target of risk elimination to get hit. It also shows that volume increases at this point to substantiate a more real move versus the prior artificial fades. We also suggest trading small in size and instead build long-term position out of runners (again, view our Quad exit strategy).In addition, we advise against scalping and frequent intraday trading. Instead, we find stepping away from the noise and trading monthly charts to be an intelligent way to protect wealth. The most secure way of participating in the Silver market is to accumulate physical holdings.Gold in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver’s market manipulation is your way in:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 14th, 2021.Pick your spots wisely. Overtrading in minefield conditions is risk expansive. A top-down approach from a longer-term directional perspective should guide when to engage in the market. The daily chart above shows one such substantial directional support. When prices reach the green line again (linear regression channel), the 60 min entry strategy based on time of day (20:30 EST to 21:30 EST) and a keen eye on your volume bars is vital to participate in a low-risk manner to get a piece of the pie.One more thing! It is much more proficient to work with a volume-based support measurement tool (yellow line) for transactional support versus typical TA tools of horizontal support and resistance lines.Silver’s market manipulation is your way in:Market participation is an endless path of hurdles overcome and a honing of difficult to acquire skillset in a challenging profession. Market manipulation is as old as time. Complaining about it doesn’t benefit but your ego. Taking the role of a detective instead and examining the market with curiosity for its complexity of rules or, in this case, manipulated rules to then build in opposition a rule set that provides advantages for your market plays is a more proper approach.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 14th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Is the Selling Madness About Over?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.05.2021 15:43
The inflation scare amplified by CPI data has died down yesterday a little. Buying returned into the S&P 500, lifting Nasdaq ever so little too. VIX steeply rejected moving higher, and looks ready to decline today, but the put/call ratio doesn‘t share the optimism as obviously the bearish scenarios, powered by the inflation scare forcing a deflationary outcome in an overleveraged financial system is emboldened by the downfall‘s steepness since Monday and ineffective attempts to coutner it on Tuesday. While one swallow doesn‘t make a summer, the technical picture in the hardest hit tech is gradually improving, worthy of benefit of the doubt while you dance close to the Nasdaq exit door.Credit markets have crucially improved, with the junk corporate bonds leading the way, and value stocks being soundly bought again. All it took was a decent daily stabilization in long-dated Treasuries coupled with an intraday upswing attempt – no issue that it fizzled out before the close, apparently. The markets are coming to terms with higher inflation, and the commodities hit starting with lumber, stretching to copper, and eventually also oil and soybeans yesterday, would likely recover – first those that hadn‘t been all that overheated. The Fed isn‘t serious about fighting inflation, otherwise it wouldn‘t be rolling out the speaking procession on an almost daily basis. Occam‘s razor at work:(…) all we‘re experiencing now, is:(...) a risk-off move driven by the growing inflation threat – the market is getting attentive again. How long before it forces the Fed to talk, act and not play ostrich? The evidence isn‘t strong thus far, but there is a lot of time left till the Jun Fed meeting. Needless to say, bold moves would crater risk-on assets, which is why I‘m not expecting any real action yet with the 10-year yield...… at 1.66% only, which by no means serious enough to spur the Fed into action.We‘ve been there already, and as stated, 10-year yields above 2% would start to bite stocks, but it‘s only higher levels that would force the Fed into action and pegging them in the 2 to 2.5% range. We‘re far away from that, these are just (mild) birthing cramps, a premature alarm. We‘re still in a reflation – so far.Gold and miners resilience leading to further upswings, is on – and it seems that precious metals would lead select pockets of commodities (yes, silver looks ready to do that job, and that extends to the so far still range bound silver miners one day too) higher as we keep transitioning to a higher inflation environment for months already:(…) With high inflation already here (don‘t look for too much relief once the low year-on-year comparison base is history), real rates are turning more negative – and nominal ones aren‘t yet catching up onto what‘s coming. Seriously, I don‘t know why majority of market participants have been caught this much off guard by the inflation data, which is the basis of cost-push inflation I had been talking quite many times already.Negative real rates would start supporting the metals increasingly more as the decoupling from nominal yields gathers more steam. The precious metals upleg is still in its early stages, and about to add more to my open gold profits.Crude oil would be positively affected by the anticipated rebound in commodities from the weekly setback, as these would balance out the rising yields in a way, and would do well past reflation time. Right on cue, my new oil position is already profitable.Bitcoin had a high volatility day yesterday, but closed almost where it opened. Tentative signs of stabilization and accumulation are here, and Ethereum isn‘t wasting time in returning to growth, which is a positive signal for the best known crypto.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 recovered, but it‘s all about volume and the upper knot pointing to stiffer headwinds just next.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) made a steep and credible recovery, and the investment grade ones didn‘t perfom all too badly either upon the daily TLT „miracle“.Technology and ValueTech recovery left much to be desired, and the long upper knot isn‘t appetizing. Obviously much depends upon the next TLT and inflation expectations moves, but $NYFANG seems to be readying a temporary respite next. Given how value performed yesterday, that would be overly positive for the S&P 500 as the index needs to be firing on both cylinders to make real progress.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners keep trading in harmony, and new precious metals upswing is in the making. See how little an TLT uptick coincided with that turn.Silver daily downswing might not appear to confirm the bullish assessment, but I think that‘s a daily occurence only.Crude OilCrude oil dipped a bit too far yesterday, but doesn‘t appear to be breaking down. I look for more backing and filling before the upswing resumes.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting to (and should) flex some muscles, and not muddle through in the 4,130 ramge for too long. The weak retail sales aren‘t exactly a positive catalyst but at least it puts to rest the misguided notions of the Fed springing to action.Gold, silver and miners are well positioned for the upswing resumption, and much of the downside indeed appears to be in already.Crude oil meandering goes on, but without bearish overtones – the chart remains bullish.Bitcoin has started to timidly repair the damage inflicted while Ethereum is back to growth already. The leading crypto‘s position still remains murky at the moment.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Junior Miners Should be Rallying – What’s Holding Them Back?

Junior Miners Should be Rallying – What’s Holding Them Back?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.05.2021 15:50
Junior miners may soon suffer a breakdown of the short-term support line. So, what’s responsible for their underperformance of gold and stocks?Today’s technical part of the analysis is going to be brief, as I have discussed multiple things this week and my comments remain up-to-date. There’s not much to add today, and we’ll go over only one technical chart – the one where we have trading positions – the GDXJ ETF chart. Unlike in the previous days, today I’m going to look at it from the more short-term point of view – through the 4-hour chart.Before looking at it, please note that yesterday’s (May 13) session was relatively boring in the case of gold futures (they ended the day $1.20 higher), and quite positive for the GLD ETF, at least at first sight, as it closed $0.70 higher. The seemingly odd discrepancy between the two is just a result of different times that are taken into account for calculating both markets’ performance. All in all, yesterday’s session was positive for gold.The S&P 500 index ended yesterday’s session 1.22% higher. At face value, this seems positive. Technically, it was just a comeback to the previously broken lows (mid-April and early May ones), which was followed by a small move lower before the end of the day, so from this point of view, this session was bearish.Taking day-to-day price changes, though, yesterday’s session was positive for both: gold and the general stock market. Consequently, the GDXJ ETF should have rallied as its price is generally influenced by both. And what actually happened?The GDXJ ETF declined by 1.18%.This is an extremely bearish short-term sign as its obvious that exactly the opposite happened to what was actually supposed to happen. The most likely reason? Junior miners simply can’t wait to decline.Junior mining stocks (the GDXJ ETF is often used as a proxy for them) declined to their rising short-term support line yesterday and ended the session close to it. There was no breakdown, but given the weak trading performance compared to gold and stocks, it seems that we won’t have to wait for it to materialize.And speaking of relative performance – it’s not just the day-to-day performance. Yesterday’s intraday low in the GDXJ ETF was just one cent above the intraday March high. For comparison, gold’s intraday low yesterday was over $50 above its intraday March high. And the S&P 500 was 91.12 index points (over 2%) above its intraday March high.My May 11 comments on the additional reason behind juniors’ weakness remain up-to-date:But what about juniors? Why haven’t they been soaring relative to senior mining stocks? What makes them so special (and weak) right now? In my opinion, it’s the fact that we now – unlike at any other time in the past – have an asset class that seems similarly appealing to the investment public. Not to everyone, but to some. And this “some” is enough for juniors to underperform.Instead of speculating on an individual junior miner making a killing after striking gold or silver in some extremely rich deposit, it’s now easier than ever to get the same kind of thrill by buying… an altcoin (like Dogecoin or something else). In fact, people themselves can engage in “mining” these coins. And just like bitcoin seems similar to gold to many (especially the younger generation) investors, altcoins might serve as the “junior mining stocks” of the electronic future. At least they might be perceived as such by some.Consequently, a part of the demand for juniors was not based on the “sympathy” toward the precious metals market, but rather on the emotional thrill (striking gold) combined with the anti-establishment tendencies ( gold and silver are the anti- metals, but cryptocurrencies are anti-establishment in their own way). And since everyone and their brother seem to be talking about how much this or that altcoin has gained recently, it’s easy to see why some people jumped on that bandwagon instead of investing in junior miners.This tendency is not likely to go away in the near term, so it seems that we have yet another reason to think that the GDXJ ETF is going to move much lower in the following months – declining more than the GDX ETF. The above + gold’s decline + stocks’ decline is truly an extremely bearish combination, in my view.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Hold Gains

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.05.2021 08:47
USDCHF drops after bearish crossThe US dollar came under renewed pressure after retail sales showed a flatline in April. The latest rebound has struggled to clear 0.9090.An overbought RSI at this key resistance was a warning of exhaustion. Then a fall below 0.9030 was a confirmation of the bearish MA cross. This is a strong signal that the price action has reversed its course to the downside.A breakout below 0.8985 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.8930. 0.9050 is the closest resistance if the price goes sideways.AUDJPY bounces from supportThe risk-sensitive Australian dollar rebounds as risk appetite returns. The pair has bounced off the 20-day moving average on the daily chart which coincides with the short-term support at 84.25.General sentiment remains upbeat as the Aussie carries on the fourteen-month-long rally. Strong momentum above 84.85 points to 85.80 as the next target.The bullish MA cross is another indication of recovery. As the RSI shows an overbought situation a temporary pullback towards 84.55 is possible.UK100 recovers above psychological levelFTSE 100 bounces back as inflation fears take a back seat. The index saw strong buying interest at 6840, a demand zone on the daily chart.The rally above 6980, the origin of the latest sell-off then the psychological level of 7000 is an indication that buyers have strong conviction to push back.The crash seemed to be an opportunity to buy the dip once again. A close above 7045 would prompt more buyers to join and send the price towards the peak at 7165.On the downside, 6940 is the immediate support.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin are in a technical ‘Excess Phase Top”

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.05.2021 14:58
Yesterday I highlighted thebroad market cyclesand what technical analysts call the “Excess Phase Top” process, which usually takes place after the markets peak and setup a downward price trend.There are a number of technical setups that take place throughout this process. Today, I will be exploring the charts of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Bitcoin (BTC) to see where they are in the process.The suggestion I am making by highlighting these market trends and setups is that a Cash Position is a viable allocation of capital away from risks and losses. Many traders don't view a cash position as a properly allocated use of capital. We believe taking a cash position at the right times can anddoes provide very clear benefits, including:Eliminating risks of further losses/drawdowns.Setting up a process of protecting cash and waiting for a confirmed re-entry trigger.Avoiding the failure of buying into a declining market – which is one of thebiggest faults of active traders.Using the Cash position as a hedge against shifting currency/market valuations.Remember, in many cases, broad market downtrends are often associated with bigger trends in currencies and global market sectors. Chasing these trends can lead to further risks if you are not careful and skilled in your trading decisions. Keeping your capital in a Cash Allocation/Position is often the easiest and safest way for you to ride out volatile downside price trends and allows you tore-deploy your cash into new trades when the time is right.Understanding Broad Market Cycles & TrendsBefore we get started, we are going to share the broader market cycles chart with you to refresh your memory (or if you missed the first part ofthis research article).Before looking at the charts, please bear in mind that these patterns often take place over many months. Usually, the initial topping (#1) phase and flagging formation (#2) take place over a 60 to 90+ day span of time. Yes, sometimes these setups can take place over shorter spans of time, but usually, they last over 60+ days.Additionally, the breakdown of the Flag formation (#2), which leads to the setup of intermediate support (#3), can often take many months to complete aswell. My research team and I have seen the Flagging setup last well over 30 days at times and after the immediate support level is reached, markets sometimes attempt to move sideways for many weeks/months before attempting to break below that support level.APPL Continues To Flag Out – Watch for potential breakdown below $115.The Weekly AAPL chart below highlights the rally from $35 to over $140 over the past 2.5 years (notice the price split that happened in 2020). This rally reached a peak near January 25, 2021 (#1) and has fallen nearly 20% from the peak levels before starting a sideways Flag formation (#2). This type of setup completes the first two processes of the Excess Phase Top setup and aligns with the broader market cycles to suggest we mayhave entered the “Complacency” phase of price trending.The sideways Flagging pattern (#2) on this chart suggests AAPL may continue to move within this price channel before attempting to either recover, by moving to new highs or to break below the $115 level (#3), which would confirm the next phase of the Excess Phase Top pattern. If we see any continued breakdown in price, traders need to prepare for the markets to attempt to move downward, targeting historical support levels, where we expect price toconsolidate for many weeks/months. I have drawn a YELLOW line near a very clear support level for AAPL near $80 as a potential downside price target. If this Excess Phase Top pattern fails, we will likely see AAPL rally back above $145 and attempt to break into a new bullish trending phase.Tesla Breaks Below Flag Channels – What's Next?The following Weekly TSLA chart highlights the rally from $73 to over $900 over the past year (note the price split that happened in 2020). This rally also reached a peak near January 25, 2021 (#1) and has fallen nearly 40% from the peak levels before starting a sideways Flag formation (#2). At this phase of price action, we can see TSLA has recently broken below the lower Flag price channel and may be attempting to start a downward price trend where price will seek out intermediate support.I have drawn a YELLOW line near a very clear support level for TSLA near $430 as a potential downside price target for this next phase of the Excess Phase Top pattern (#3). From atechnical standpoint, if the support level near recent lows, near $540, holds, and price is unable to move below this level, then we may see a technical failure of the Excess Phase Top pattern. The move to the intermediate support level, which must be lower than the lows of the Flag formation, is critical in confirming the move into “Complacency” and the transition into “Anxiety” on the Broad Market Cycle example. Without this subsequent breakdown in price happening, we would consider the Excess Phase Top pattern potentially invalid (or failed) and start to watch for any new upside price trending – eventually targeting recent highs near $780. At this point, the $540 lows have become the new critical price level for TSLA and we are expecting price to continue to move lower, possibly breaching the $540 level.Bitcoin Gaps Lower After Peak & Breaks Flag Lows – What's Next?This last chart for Daily BTC Futures highlights the rally from $10,200 to over $65,500 over the past 7.5 months. This rallyreached a peak near April 14, 2021 (#1) and Gapped lower on April 19, 2021. The recent downside price move from that peak totaled nearly -27% before starting a sideways Flag formation (#2). In order to confirm the next phase of this Excess Phase Top pattern, we would watch for price to break lower, breaking the Flag formation channels, and attempt to break below the recent support level near $47,440. If we see a strong breakdown in price where closing price levels break below $47,440, I would expect price to move quickly below $40,000 and attempt to seek out critical support.I have drawn a YELLOW line near a very clear support level for BTC near $34,250 as a potential downside price target for this next phase of the Excess Phase Top pattern (#3).Recently, Bitcoin broke below the Flag formation lower channel and briefly traded below support near $47,440. If we continue to see downward price trending where price closes below this level, I would consider this technical confirmation of the Excess Phase Top pattern, suggesting price will attempt to continue moving lower while trying to seek out intermediate support (near the YELLOW line possibly).At this point, Bitcoin is showing moderate weakness and has already attempted to break recent support. Any confirmation of further downward trending could push us out of the Complacency phase and into the Anxiety phase of the broad market cycles. Are you ready for what's next?The question of “Should You Be In Cash” right now is a very valid concern for many traders/investors. Learning how to identify and understand risks and technical patterns/setups in the markets is critical to understanding how to protect and grow your wealth. Additionally, learning to use the Cash Position, and proper position sizing, asa valid type of trading allocation is essential, in our thinking, to protect your assets throughout volatile market trends. The next 12 to 24 months are almost certain to include much higher price volatility and big price rotations/trends, which will translate into incredibleopportunities for traders/investors.Over the next 6+ months and beyond, there are going to be incredible market moves. Staying ahead of these index and sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success. As somesectors fail, others will begin to trend higher, and this is the type of research and work I share every day at The Technical Traders Ltd.Happy Trading!Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategistwww.TheTechnicalTraders.com
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Watch Out As Gold Appears To Be Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Upside Move

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.05.2021 15:03
Although Gold has continued to drift downward after reaching a peak near $2089.20 in early August 2020, our Custom Gold Inverse Trending Index suggests this weakness has actually built a very strong momentum base – preparing for a big move higher.The relationship of Gold to the US Dollar is a fairly widely known correlation.  When the US Dollar is weaker, Gold tends to rally.  When the US Dollar is stronger, Gold tends to be weaker.  Yet the combination of EURUSD and JPYUSD (plotted in INVERSE) in combination to the trend of the US Dollar related to Gold is difficult to ignore.  Let's explore this unique correlation a bit deeper.Exploring Currency/Gold Correlations – Are We Starting A New 7 Year Gold Rally?The Weekly Gold vs Currencies Chart, below, may seem a bit complicated, so let me try to explain what I'm trying to illustrate. First, the CYAN colored line is the US Dollar Index.  What I want to share with you is the US Dollar enters periods of strength or weakness for extended periods of time.  You can see the US Dollar Index weakening near the left edge of this chart near 2006-07, then strengthening again after a moderate bottom near 2013~14, then starting to weaken again after the recent peak in March 2020.  These roughly 7-year cycles act as major US Dollar Index bias trends.  We are current within a weakening US Dollar Index bias based on our research.Second, the 85 to 86 level on the US Dollar appears to be a moderately critical support level.  When the US Dollar falls below this level, entering a period of broad overall weakness, Gold tends to react to US Dollar strength more aggressively than when the US Dollar stays above the 85~86 level.  A good example of this can be seen by the 2019 to 2020 rally in Gold while the US Dollar Index traded moderately higher while above the 86 level.Next, when the EURUSD and JPYUSD move into a position of strength compared to the US Dollar, Gold tends to trend generally higher as the US Dollar weakness is persistent in driving traders/investors into safe-havens.  The 0.65 level, the BLUE line, on this chart highlights the combined threshold for the US Dollar Index and the EURUSD/JPYUSD trend bias.Lastly, we want to highlight how Gold reacted to US Dollar bottoming rotations in different bias trends.  We've highlighted a number of US Dollar bottoms with MAGENTA arcing arrows.  Notice how stronger upside moves in the US Dollar Index while trading below the 85~86 level prompted fairly deep downside price trends in Gold.  You can see this happen over and over again in 2008, 2010, and 2011.  Now, compare the US Dollar rallies/bottoms in 2014, 2016, and 2018 to how Gold reacted while the US Dollar Index had transitioned into a bullish bias (moving above the 85~86 level, or trending towards this bias). The deep low in the US Dollar Index in 2011 prompted a very big change of trend for Gold – prompting a -20% decline followed by a deeper -38% decline before starting to bottom in 2015.  The US Dollar bottom in 2015 prompted another-20% decline in Gold prices, yet the transition of the US Dollar moving to levels above 85~86 while the EURUSD/JPYUSD fell below 0.65 prompted a shift in how Gold started reacting to US Dollar weakness.  The US Dollar bottom in 2016 actually prompted some moderate strength in upside trending in Gold and continued a new bullish bias for Gold over the past 6+ years.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Now, with Gold rallying off the current US Dollar weakness while trading quite strongly above $1800, we are starting to see a transitional shift in the US Dollar Index and the EURUSD/JPYUSD correlation.  Just like in 2006-07, if the US Dollar continues to weaken and trail below the 85~86 level, the current bullish trending in Gold will likely continue to strengthen.  At that time, reactions to US Dollar bottoms may prompt some Gold volatility and rotation, yet the bias of the trending appears to be starting a new 7-year bullish Gold trending phase (just like what happened between 2007 and 2014).  All we need to see happen is for the US Dollar to continue to weaken to levels below 85~86 (or continue to drift lower) while the EURUSD/JPYUSD correlation continues to strengthen.Comparing Inverse EURUSD/JPYUSD to Gold TrendsOur research team decided to try to use the EURUSD/JPYUSD correlation and attempt to align it to the price of Gold.  In order to do this, because of the inverse price relationship between the two, we had to invert the EURUSD/JPYUSD price structure.The Japanese Candlesticks on the chart, below, are reflective of our EURUSD/JPYUSD correlation to Gold.  The GOLD line on the chart, below, is the real Gold Futures price level.We are starting to see an upward price correlation between these two symbols as well as a potential technical correlation setting up over the next few weeks.  If the US Dollar continues to weaken, pushing the EURUSD/JPYUSD higher, we'll likely see an RSI bullish breakout confirm the price trigger that has just broken the downward price channel on this chart (the MAGENTA line).It appears the recent weakness in Gold translates into the building of a new momentum base for precious metals near $1700.  Are you ready for what may come next?Although it may be difficult for you to see and understand these broad market bias phases and cycle trends, there are two key elements I hope you to conclude from our research:It appears a, roughly, 7-year currency/gold cycle phase takes place where the US Dollar becomes decidedly weaker while the EURUSD/JPYUSD becomes decidedly stronger – then these two switch directions/strengths.  When the US Dollar is weaker throughout this 7 year cycle phase, Gold tends to become a bit more reactive to US Dollar strength, yet Gold continues to trend higher showing a very defined bullish trend bias.The transitional process of this cycle phase appears to be shifting into US Dollar weakness right now.  The recent downward price trend in Gold appears to be a new Momentum Base in price near, or above $1700.  If our research is correct and the proposed current transition takes place in the near future (the new cycle phase), we may see Gold enter a very defined bullish trend bias lasting more than 4~5+ years.If you believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers. Sign up today!In Part II of this article, I will explore longer term charts and how this currency correlation may be confirming a big upward price trend in Gold and what it means for traders/investors.  I will also explore how this new potential rally phase in gold translated into proper positioning of assets and preparations for broad market volatility.Have a great weekend!
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Being a Gold Bull Is Now Far Too Easy - Don’t Be Deceived

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.05.2021 15:18
Easy choices lead to a hard life (or at least losses), and because gold’s downside move is delayed, it’s extremely easy to be bullish on gold right now.It’s easy to get carried away by the day-to-day price action, and it’s even easier to feel the emotions that other market participants are feeling while looking at the same short-term price action. Right now, it’s tempting to be bullish on gold. It’s “easy” to be bullish on gold while looking at what happened in the last 1.5 months. But what’s easy is rarely profitable in the long run.“Easy choices – hard life. Hard choices – easy life” – Jerzy GregorekLet’s get beyond the day-to-day price swings. The Fed has been keeping the interest rates at ultra-low levels for many months, and it has just pledged to keep them low for a long time. The world is enduring the pandemic, and the amount of money that entered the system is truly astonishing. The savings available to investors skyrocketed. The USD Index has been beaten down from over 100 to about 90. And yet, gold is not at new highs. In fact, despite the 2020 attempt to rally above its 2011 high, gold’s price collapsed, and it invalidated the breakout above these all-important highs. It’s now trading just a few tens of dollars higher than it had been trading in 2013, right before the biggest slide of the recent years.Something doesn’t add up with regard to gold’s bullish outlook, does it?Exactly. Gold is not yet ready to soar, and if it wasn’t for the pandemic-based events and everything connected to them, it most likely wouldn’t have rallied to, let alone above its 2011 highs before declining profoundly. And what happens if a market is practically forced to rally, but it’s not really ready to do so? Well, it rallies… For a while. Or for a bit longer. But eventually, it slides once again. It does what it was supposed to do anyway - the only thing that changes is the time. Everything gets delayed, and the ultimate downside targets could increase, but overall, the big slide is not avoided.Let’s say that again. Not avoided, but delayed.And this is where we are right now. In the following part of the analysis, I’m going to show you how the situation in the USD Index is currently impacting the precious metals market, and how it’s likely to impact it in the following weeks and months.Riding investors’ emotional roller coaster, the love-hate relationship between financial markets and the USD Index is quite absurd. However, with alternating emotions often changing like the seasons, the greenback’s latest stint in investors’ doghouse could be nearing its end. Case in point: with the most speculative names in the stock market enduring a springtime massacre, beneath the surface laughter has already turned into tears. And while gold, silver and mining stocks have been buoyed by the intense emotional high that’s only visible on the surface, it’s only a matter of time before the veneer is lifted.To that point, while I won’t romanticize the USD Index’s recent underperformance, it’s important to remember that extreme pessimism is often the spark that lights the USD Index’s fire.Please see below:To explain, the bars above track various market participants’ four-week allocations to the U.S. dollar, while the horizontal light blue line above tracks the USD Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that fund flows have fallen off of a cliff in recent weeks. However, if you analyze the behavior of the USD Index near Jan-20, Jan-21 and Mar-21, you can see that extremely pessimistic fund flows are often followed by short-term rallies in the USD Index. As a result, with the latest readings already breaching -4 (using the scale on the left side of the chart), USD-Index bears have likely already offloaded their positions.What’s more, not only did the USD Index end last week up by 0.10%, but the greenback invalidated the breakdown below its head & shoulders pattern – which is quite bullish – and also invalidated the breakdown below its rising dashed support line (the black line below). Moreover, while the greenback fell below the latter again on May 14, the short-term weakness is far from a game-changer as the breakdown is not confirmed.Please see below:On top of that, with the USD Index hopping in the time machine and setting the dial on 2016, a similar pattern could be emerging. To explain, I wrote on May 11:While the self-similarity to 2018 in the USD Index is not as clear as it used to be (it did guide the USDX for many weeks, though), there is also another self-similar pattern that seems more applicable now. One of my subscribers noticed that and decided to share it with us (thanks, Maciej!).Here’s the quote, the chart, and my reply:Thank you very much for your comprehensive daily Gold Trading Reports that I am gladly admitting I enjoy a lot. While I was analyzing recent USD performance, (DX) I have spotted one pattern that I would like to validate with you if you see any relevance of it. I have noticed the DX Index performing exactly in the same manner in a time frame between Jan. 1, 2021 and now as the one that started in May 2016 and continued towards Aug. 16. The interesting part is not only that the patterns are almost identical, but also their temporary peeks and bottoms are spotting in the same points. Additionally, 50 daily MA line is almost copied in. Also, 200 MA location versus 50 MA is almost identical too. If the patterns continue to copy themselves in the way they did during the last 4 months, we can expect USD to go sideways in May (and dropping to the area of 90,500 within the next 3 days) and then start growing in June… which in general would be in line with your analysis too.Please note the below indices comparison (the lower represents the period between May-Dec 2016 and higher Jan – May 2021). I am very much interested in your opinion.Thank you in advance.And here’s what I wrote in reply:Thanks, I think that’s an excellent observation! I read it only today (Monday), so I see that the bearish note for the immediate term was already realized more or less in tune with the self-similar pattern. The USDX moved a bit lower, but it doesn’t change that much. The key detail here would be that the USDX is unlikely to decline much lower, and instead, it’s likely to start a massive rally in the next several months - that would be in perfect tune with my other charts/points.I wouldn’t bet on the patterns being identical in the very near term, though, just like the late June 2016 and early March 2021 weren’t that similar.As soon as the USD Index rallies back above the rising support line, the analogy to 2016 will be quite clear once again –the implications will be even more bullish for the USDX and bearish for the precious metals market for the next several months.Please note that back in 2016, there were several re-tests of the rising support line and tiny breakdowns below it before the USD Index rallied. Consequently, the current short-term move lower is not really concerning, and forecasting gold at much higher levels because of it might be misleading. I wouldn’t bet on the silver bullish forecast either. The white metal might outperform at the very end of the rally, but it has already done so recently on a very short-term basis, so we don’t have to see this signal. And given the current situation in the general stock market – which might have already topped – silver and mining stocks might not be able to show strength relative to gold at all.If that wasn’t enough, the USD Index’s long-term breakout remains intact . And when analyzing from a bird’s-eye view, the recent weakness is largely inconsequential.Please see below:Moreover, please note that the correlation between the USD Index and gold is now strongly negative (-0.92 over the last 10 days) and it’s been the case for several weeks now. The same thing happened in early January 2021 and in late July – August 2020. These were major tops in gold.The bottom line?After regaining its composure , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, with investors and the USD Index likely headed toward reconciliation, the greenback’s medium-term prospects remain robust. With macroeconomic headwinds aligning with technical catalysts, investors’ risk-on inertia is already showing cracks in its foundation. And with the USD Index considered a safe-haven currency, a reversal in sentiment will likely catapult the USD Index back into the spotlight. Moreover, with gold, silver and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, the mood music will likely turn somber across the precious metals market. The bottom line? With the metals’ mettle likely to crack under the forthcoming pressure, their outlook remains profoundly bearish over the next few months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Same Old Song and Dance – Almost

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.05.2021 16:21
Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about their direction. Just as sharply the VIX rose, that steeply it retreated over the past two days, hinting that stocks are returning back to the old normal, which means about to go upwards. Option traders didn‘t agree that profoundly, but they aren‘t sending a trustworthy warning sign.I care more about corporate bond markets returning to life, and the retreating yields once the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI has been digested. The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.Gold and silver enjoy the retreating yields, unequivocally. And not even copper‘s short-term vulnerability as the red metal consolidates, is spoiling the technical picture much. Gold miners continue leading higher as silver ones keep lagging behind, but that‘s not an issue – the precious metals sector is primed to go up and extend my open gold profits.As the hottest running commodities take a breather (lumber sorely needs consolidation instead of down limit moves, copper‘s most bullish outcome would be sideways to a little lower trading, with soybeans being best positioned to weather last week‘s setback):(…) it seems that precious metals would lead select pockets in commodities (yes, silver looks ready to do that job, and that extends to the so far still range bound silver miners one day) higher as we keep transitioning to a higher inflation environment for months already.The Fed isn‘t serious about fighting inflation, otherwise it wouldn‘t be rolling out the procession on almost daily basis. Negative real rates would start supporting the metals increasingly more as the decoupling from nominal yields gathers more steam. The precious metals upleg is still in its early stages.Crude oil recovered from Thursday‘s setback, hitching a ride alongside other commodities on Friday. Still within its latest range, and on not stellar volume, but the bulls deserve continued benefit of the doubt as bullish spirits return, making the open oil position even more profitable.Bitcoin has been struggling over the weekend, giving up Friday‘s gains and then some. The next bottom remains elusive but the cryptocurrency isn‘t down and out. Outshined by its competitors though, oh yes – Ethereum continues bullishly basing, making the open Ethereum position profitable.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 recovery continues – just as sharply as the index went down. Makes you think to what degree were the algos‘ risk-adjustments per volatility implied, exacerbating the selloff and driving powerfully the comeback,Credit MarketsCorporate bonds – whether high yield or investment grade ones – confirmed the stock market recovery with upswings of their own, and long-dated Treasuries aren‘t likely to stand in the way next.VolatilityFurther confirmation of how fast the correction came, and disappeared, came from the volatility spike getting lost faster than it could influence its moving averages anyhow.Technology and ValueTech recovery is confirmed by the $NYFANG one, and I view the lower volume as little concerning. The TLT breather and inflation expectations calming down a little, would be more important, and value stocks show that their return of bullish spirits is to be taken seriously.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners keep trading in harmony, and the miners‘ outperformance reasserting itself bodes well for the week ahead. Just as I wrote on Friday, check once again how little an TLT uptick coincided with that turn.Silver isn‘t wildly outperforming gold in any way, pointing to this precious metals upswing as having further to run. In spite of the sideways to down consolidation in copper, its ratio to 10-year Treasury yield remains healthy and supportive of further metals‘ run, and of commodities in general – but these are likely to take a breather (compared to their prior perfomance) once Treasury yields would go sideways. So, keep the overt bullishness in check.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin continues building a base, but the volume behind the downswings looks to favor the sellers now. Ethereum is another cup of tea, continuing to form a bullish flag before another advance, but it must return to outperformance first. We aren‘t there yet.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to defend and extend gains, and credit markets confirm the drive higher both in tech and value as Russell 2000 catches its daily breath too.Gold, silver and miners are well positioned for the upswing continuation, powered by further retreat in real rates. Higher precious metals prices are ahead.Crude oil is still bullishly range bound, and the resumption of deliveries to the South and East won‘t crater it. Neither would the Middle East tensions spike it tough, but that‘s relevant to the precious metals too.Bitcoin‘s short-term outlook isn‘t yet bullish, but this can‘t be said about Ethereum to the same degree, which would be outperforming the best known crypto hands down. For those in favor of spread trades, going long Ethererum while shorting Bitcoin (the positions‘ relative moves with equal risk exposure), seems a great idea. Ethereum outlook remains bullish, and the sole question remains how far and for how long it would pull back before another upleg.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Metals Preparation For A Big Upside Move (Part II)

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 18.05.2021 05:23
In the first portion of this research article, I highlighted the correlation between Gold and the US Dollar as well as the correlation between the US Dollar and the EURUSD and JPYUSD.  The purpose of this example was to highlight the different phases of US Dollar appreciation vs depreciation compared to the EURUSD/JPYUSD.  The EURUSD and JPYUSD are often compared to the US Dollar as major global currencies.  Therefore, when the US Dollar moves into a depreciation phase, we expect to see the EURUSD and JPYUSD move into an appreciation phase.How this correlated to the price of Gold and the phases of advancing vs declining precious metals is simple to understand.  Gold will stall, or more broadly downward, while the US Dollar is within an advancing/appreciation phase.  Gold will move higher or begin an upward trend bias when the US Dollar begins to generally weaken or moves into a declining/depreciation phase.Understanding Cycle Phases & Correlative Gold Price Trend BiasIn the first portion of this research article, I highlighted this relationship by detailing the 2007-08 US Dollar depreciation phase that lasted until a major bottom setup in 2014 (almost exactly 7 years).  That next US Dollar appreciation phase lasted until a recent major peak in March 2020 (almost exactly 7 years).  If the US Dollar continues to decline in value after the COVID-19 virus event and the change in cycle phases, we can expect another 5 to 7+ years of advancing precious metals prices as a result.The recent bottoming in Gold, just above the $1700 price level, set up a very unique scenario related to potential future advances in price.  The current Gold rally from the 2015 lows, near $1045.40, to recent highs near $2089.20 represents almost a 100% price advance.  In my opinion, this rally in Gold is similar to the rally that took place between 2000 and 2005 – starting near the end of a US stock market appreciation phase and lasting about 3.5 years into a US stock market depreciation phase.  Our researchers believe the US stock market has completed a recent price appreciation phase in 2018~2019 and that we are only about 1~2 years into a new US stock market depreciation phase – which may last until 2027~2029.The Monthly Gold Futures chart, below, highlights these Appreciation/Depreciation phases and the advancing/declining price of Gold over the past 25+ years.  We want you to pay very close attention to how Gold started to rally in 2000 as the markets peaked because of the DOT COM rally.  This rally started in the midst of a US stock market appreciation phase – just like what happened in 2015.  Gold prices rallied from the 2000 lows to reach the initial +100% advance by early 2006 (in the midst of a housing market rally and in the midst of a Depreciation US stock market phase).  After that, Gold rallied another +265% reaching a peak price level $1923.70 in September 2011.Currently, Gold has rallied approximately 100% from the 2015 lows – similar to the 2000~2006 rally.  The current downside price move in Gold suggests the recent highs, near $2089.20 in August 2020, complete a Cup-n-Handle pattern.  Additionally, because we have just entered a US stock market Depreciation phase, we believe the price of Gold will continue to advance to levels highlighted in the chart above.  The first target level is $2600, then $3200, then $3790.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Our Currency Correlation Inverse Trend Index also aligns with the Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phases.  If the US Dollar continues to decline in value over the next 2 to 5+ years, attempting to consolidate below $84 as it has done in the past, then we believe the EURUSD/JPYUSD currency values may advance above the threshold (near 0.65) to prompt a stronger rally in precious metals over the next 4+ years.US Dollar & Currency Correlations Suggest Big Advance In Metals Is PendingThe primary driver of this move is the declining US Dollar – not the move higher in the EURUSD or JPYUSD.  These other currencies are simply barometers of the global perception of the strength of the US Dollar.  A weakening US Dollar will usually be prompt a moderate advance in Gold prices.  We believe the correlation between the US Dollar value (above or below the 85~86 level), as well as the correlation of the strength of the EURUSD and JPYUSD in comparison to the US Dollar, may prompt a change in how Gold reacts to moderate trend bias as well as how Gold reacts to changes in the US Dollar trends.  The bias trend of Gold within this extended market cycle phase tends to mitigate Gold price volatility as the US Dollar temporarily bottoms/bases and starts to rise.  This suggests a broader rally in Gold throughout this new market cycle phase may extend much higher than many people expect.The following Monthly Custom Metals Inverse Trend chart, below, highlights the bottoming/basing formation in the currency correlation compared to Gold.  You can see the moderately deep bottom that set up in Gold between the peak in 2011 and the bottom in 2015, as well as the recent rally in gold to the new highs.  The recent moderate selloff in Gold correlated to a very minor decline in the Inverse Currency Index – suggesting that a bigger rally is setting up as currencies rotate into the new cycle phase.Our Custom Metals Index Weekly chart, below, highlights the recent upward price rotation in the precious metals/miners sectors.  Pay very close attention to the RED price channels on this chart and the LIGHT BLUE arching GANN Fan resistance levels near the recent tops in price.  We believe any upside price advance above these current GANN arcs will prompt a rally that may push metals prices back into the RED price channels – advancing possibly +10% to +30% higher before the end of 2021.  This advance may prompt Gold to rally to levels near our $2600 price target before the end of 2021.  Silver may advance to levels above $39~$44, more than 30% to 40% from current price levels if Gold continues to advance as we expect.US Dollar Flirting With Massive Price Decline Once $89.00 Is BreachedOne key factor that is likely to drive this new advance in Gold and Silver – the US Dollar trends.  I am watching two critical support levels in the US Dollar right now; $89.70 and $89.20.  If the US Dollar falls below either of these support levels, Gold will likely advance higher as the currency depreciation cycle phase appears to be continuing to engage as we expect.  Remember, the key level for the US Dollar is that 85~86 level. The closer we get to those levels, the more conviction traders and investors will have regarding the advancing precious metals prices.  The 89 price level for the US Dollar is likely the breaking point for this cycle phase to really break loose so watch that level very closely.As the US stock market attempts to shrug off inflationary concerns and worries that the US Fed may be forced to raise rates to curb inflationary trends, Traders and Investors should start to pay attention to precious metals and the currency correlations related to these broader market cycle phases.  My research team and I have published a number of articles related to these Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phases and attempted to warn of potential market volatility events over the past 8+ months, including: How To Spot The End of an Excess Phase (November 27, 2020); Are We Days Away From Potential GANN/Fibonacci Price Peak? (March 17, 2021); Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally In Gold & Silver (November 22, 2020).What is important to understand about this potential cycle phase shift and new precious metals trend bias is that it may take many weeks or months to complete before the bigger rally really starts to build momentum.  Yet, the evidence is starting to build that a decreasing US Dollar trend may prompt this new cycle phase shift in the currency correlation and that may prompt a big shift in how precious metals and miners start to rally higher.  Right now, we are seeing Gold and Silver start to shift into a new bullish trend bias – therefore, we may be starting to see a shifting in expectations; which is very similar to what we saw in 2000~2005 – just before Gold exploded higher.Make sure you stay on top of the prices of precious metals if you want to be able to take advantage of the expected rally. Every morning I share my market analysis and review the price action of precious metals with my premium subscribers of BAN Trader Pro. Join now to get my pre-market video analysis deilvered to your inbox every morning, and get ready for a great ride in Gold and Silver over the coming months and years!Enjoy the rest of your weekend!!
Bitcoin, the beauty principle

Bitcoin, the beauty principle

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.05.2021 12:33
Bitcoin is for 14 months in a bull run, and we see future price levels take out all-time highs within this year. That is not all. When you look back through all time frames over the last twenty years, you will find Bitcoins’ trading behavior to be unusually directional. While most heavily traded market instruments trade most of the time in a sideways zone, any directional tools used in charting for Bitcoin come in handy. Bitcoin is also volatile and accelerates fast in its directional legs, not ideal for low-risk reentries with the conventional use of fixed indicator settings. Consequently, we will illustrate our termed “beauty principle” on moving averages in the following chart.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Thinking from the market’s perspective:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 17th, 2021.Looking at this year’s price action from a daily time frame perspective, we find support near US$30,000 at the beginning of the year and a low-risk long entry at a double bottom near the end of January. From there, the price explodes to the upside.A. Once prices trend higher and point A is identified as a significant low, we import a moving average indicator. We set it that the price precisely touches the indicator line. The settings turn out to be 52.B. Like A, another major low got identified, and again we import a moving average and set its settings for a precise price touch to the indicator line. The settings turn out to be 37.C. We enter the market once the price touches the 37 MA and the price bounces for an 8% move. Enough for generous financing if you use our quad exit strategy and walk away with profits with the rest position stopped out at break-even entry levels. In this case, we generously allowed this trade to be a small losing trade should you use a different exit strategy that doesn’t mitigate risk.D. Another extremely low-risk entry point provides a profitable trade of more than 28% if measured to the ATH, equaling a risk-reward ratio of over 1:55 with our 0.5% stop size.E. Like D, prices turn precisely at the moving average touch, and advances exceeding 17% could have been made (r:r 1:34).F. Shows that once both moving averages touch and flat line, the temporary trend is invalidated.We are trying to illustrate that thinking from the market’s perspective, being principle-based, provides better results. Better than insisting on the market price to bounce from random assumed settings as fixed parameters.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Visual harmony:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 17th, 2021.The beauty principle is wide span. Since the all-time high in April this year, the price has tapered off. Over the last week, the price decline has accelerated. While the most typical technical analysis was at a loss to identify the low-risk entry point near US$42,280 (we post all our entries and exits in real-time in our free telegram channel), a linear regression channel only based on user settings that made the point a and point b touch precisely these two market highs, allowed us to pinpoint this precision low-risk entry.At a closer look, you will find no help from TA tools like support resistance lines or transactional volume support, which was at a void Chanel at US$42k.Instead, you will find at point d exactly the same candlestick overshoot length through the bottom line of the linear regression line as on point c.Please don’t take our word for it. Experiment with this way of accommodating the market versus rigid methods in a fluid environment. You will find the beauty principle to be principle-based and very useful.  BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, the beauty principle, Room to go:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 17th, 2021.Let us zoom out to the bigger picture using a weekly chart. We can see that Bitcoin only had two major legs yet in this uptrend. Consequently, if the price closes within the sideways zone Nr.2 (red box) above US$44,500 by the end of this week, we have excellent chances for further price advances.Bitcoin, the beauty principle:What we termed the beauty principle isn’t only applicable to directional indicators but most technical interpretations. Inventors and, more importantly, interpreters of technical tools that manipulate the values a chart is made of (like price, volume, transactions, time, range) insist on strictly defined rules. They create, in a world of uncertainties, a tool to try to gain certainty. They support the ego’s need of being right. While this can help partially for confidence and the psychology of trading, it is, in our humble opinion, a limited way of trying to restrict a field that in principle has a vast number of variables and, as such, needs more room for interpretation. Instead of insisting on a rigid number setting of an indicator being matched by the market, it is much more useful to look back at the most recent event and instead adjust ones’ setting to the way it fits what the market did at that time. Ride the wave and let the market dictate your behavior versus trying to please the ego. This is much more principle-based versus hoping for the market to behave as you want it to. Especially knowing that the market does not care what you want in the first place.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 17th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Gold Rebounds After Fainting Due to Inflation Spike

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.05.2021 14:00
Gold recovered after a downward response to the surge in inflation. What’s next for the yellow metal?Gold rebounded after an initially bearish reaction to the BLS report showing that inflation soared 4.2% in April year-to-year. This means we have an inflation annual rate doubling the Fed’s target and the highest since the Great Recession as the chart below shows.It might now seem counterintuitive, but traders worried that the jump in the CPI would force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy earlier than anticipated. However, it seems that the US central bank managed to convince the markets that it would remain dovish for a very long period and that April’s inflation reading wouldn’t accelerate the first hike of the federal funds rate .Indeed, on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the Fed would need “several more months of data” before considering modifications to its stance. He added “now is the time we need to be patient, steely-eyed central bankers, and not be head-faked by temporary data surprises.” So, don’t fight the Fed, interest rates will stay at zero for several months, thus supporting the yellow metal!After all, the Fed’s narrative is that the current inflation is transitory . Of course, the April surge was partially caused by a 10% increase in the cost of new, as well as used cars and trucks – this accounted for a great part of the overall rise. Interestingly enough, the massive spike in car prices was in part generated by temporary supply-chain disruptions, i.e., the shortage of microchips used in automobile production.However, one can almost always find an element without which inflation is smaller. But one can also almost always find an element without which inflation is higher. This is how the consumer baskets work: some goods are getting more expensive, others are getting cheaper, etc.So, although May’s inflation reading will likely be smaller, inflation may be more lasting than many analysts believe. There are many arguments for this. First, the surge in the broad money supply . Second, rising producer prices in China, so there might be an import of inflation. Third, the realization of the pent-up demand. Fourth, the rising input prices and more room for passing them on consumers. Fifth, April’s sluggish job creation signals that wages will have to rise to entice people to return to work (all the recent unemployment benefits have made current wages less appealing). So, producers could try to pass these increases in wages on consumers, just as with rising input prices.Implications for GoldWhat does inflation imply for the gold market? Well, from the fundamental perspective, higher and more permanent inflation is positive for the yellow metal . Inflation lowers the real interest rates and the purchasing power of the greenback , supporting gold. Of course, the short-term relationship between inflation and gold is more complicated (and less bullish than in theory), especially when higher inflation translates into higher nominal bond yields and expectations of a more hawkish Fed .However, gold is a proven long-term hedge against inflation , so “gold can be a valuable component of an inflation-hedging basket”, as the WGC’s Investment Update shows . What is important here is that the Fed has become more tolerant of higher inflation. Therefore, we will have an environment of higher inflation and dovish Fed behind the curve, which implies lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar.Hence, gold should attract attention as a hedge against inflation – actually, it’s already happening, as market sentiment toward gold has recently improved, while outflows in gold ETFs have slowed . And, as the chart below shows, the price of gold has jumped this week above $1,850.So, as I repeated several times earlier, although the threat of higher interest rates will remain, the second quarter of 2021 should be better than the first one, unless the Fed radically changes its stance.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.05.2021 15:59
SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq underwent daily consolidation on long-dated Treasuries retreating a little. Key point though was rejection of the intraday downside, making the S&P 500 pendulum likelier to swing this week again bullish. The VIX spike was rejected while option traders didn‘t give up much of their bearish resolve, which doesn‘t spoil the bullish picture though.Stock trading yesterday was accompanied by the bond markets moving down. Such a non-confirmation is encouraging in its implications, as the markets are still taking seriously the transitory inflation messaging in light of the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI. Seems like we‘re in for a few relatively stable weeks of Treasury yields undeperforming inflation expectations before the yield climb returns:(…) The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.Final sign of encouragement for the S&P 500 bulls comes from the Russell 2000 and emerging markets, which had a better day than the 500-strong index. At the same time, the dollar went on to challenge its May lows, and is likely to break below them – in line with my dollar bearish calls.Gold and silver fireworks go on, and the miners support these moves – including silver ones springing to life. Just as I stated a month ago, the unavoidable inflation data are bringing down real rates, are at work. What started as a decoupling from rising nominal yields that I talked in early Mar, continues in a more obvious day, sharply increasing my open gold profits.Crude oil upswing is unfolding according to plan, and the lower volume isn‘t as concerning so as to invalidate it. Crucially, the oil sector ($XOI) continues pulling ahead, and remains fully supportive of making the open oil position even more profitable.Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded off their daily bottom yesterday, and in spite of choppy trading throughout the session, the Ethereum position was profitably closed. Bitcoin doesn‘t appear to be out of the woods yet, but the Ethereum chart is looking more constructive as time passes by.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 bullish consolidation goes on, and amid the sideways trading of the present, bulls are still the favored party.Credit MarketsCorporate bonds – whether high yield or investment grade ones – disagreed with the stock market daily resilience, and followed long-dated Treasuries to the downside. Such action though looks as a daily fluctuation, and isn‘t reason good enough to reevaluate the bullish outlook. Technology and Value$NYFANG didn‘t participate in the daily tech setback while value mostly held gained ground. Technology is giving an impression of being ready for rebound continuation which would tie in well with the relative Treasury market calm.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners are gaining speed, the latter especially – and that bodes well for the former, extending into silver naturally as well. Please note that this is happening against the backdrop of modestly rising nominal rates (see my earlier words about the ever more apparent decoupling).Silver confirms and so does the copper to 10-year yield ratio. Just as I talked on May 06, precious metals are assuming the baton from commodities – catching up.Crude OilCrude oil is back in the growth mode, yet the lower daily volume advises patience, and perhaps also indicates less volatile trading the day ahead (today). Either way, I am not looking for its sharp downside reversal.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting ready amid all the backing and filling for further advance, unless the corporate credit markets throw a fit. That‘s though unlikely to be of lasting importance.Gold, silver and miners upswing goes full speed ahead, so look up as higher prices are on the immediate horizon.Crude oil is yet another bullish bet, and its chart and oil index performance support higher prices still.Bitcoin woes continue, and Ethereum is better placed to return to growth sooner. All doesn‘t seem calm though in the crypto land at the moment.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Tests February’s Peak

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.05.2021 09:31
GBPUSD grinds to 3-month high Sterling carries on its ascent as Britain’s jobless rate dropped to 4.8% between January and March. The pound was supported by rising bids after it broke above 1.4150. The breakout confirms the bullish MA cross from last Friday. February’s peak at 1.4240 is a major resistance ahead. Its breach could extend the rally to 1.44s. In the meantime, there is a limited risk to the downside as an overbought RSI within this supply zone may trigger profit-takings. 1.4130 is the immediate support should this happen. USOIL retraces from major supply zone Oil prices stay high as reopenings across Europe raise expectations of demand recovery. WTI is currently hovering under March’s peak at 67.90, a critical supply area where stiff pressure can be expected from profit-taking and fresh shorting. The price is likely to go sideways in the short term to build up momentum. The RSI has returned to the neutrality zone. A rebound from the area near 64.30 would suggest solid support. Further down, 63.30 is critical in safeguarding the current uptrend. XAUUSD tests daily resistance Weakness in the US dollar continues to fuel demand for bullions. Gold has been inching up along the 30-hour moving average. Bullish sentiment takes a foothold after a series of higher highs. The price action is now testing a key resistance level at 1874 from the daily timeframe. Combined with an overextended RSI, the supply pressure could prompt short-term traders to cash in. 1844 would be the first support in case of a correction. On the upside, a bullish breakout may send the price to the psychological level of 1900.
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Gold: Reversal Is the Name of the Game

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.05.2021 15:47
When the USDX declines, the PMs usually celebrate and rise as a result. However, this was not the case yesterday – and we can’t ignore it.“Reversal” is the name of the game, at least when it comes to the precious metals market.The USD Index declined profoundly once again yesterday (May 18), and gold, silver, and mining stocks ignored this move. They didn’t want to follow in its footsteps anymore.As you can see, the USD Index reached its horizontal support provided by the previous important low. Low that was formed after a fake breakdown below the neck level of a supposedly bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The USDX is not only at similar price levels; it’s also right after a supposedly bearish breakdown below. The reversal could be just around the corner, or we might have already seen it, given today’s (small, but still) pre-market move higher.As I mentioned above, yesterday’s sizable decline in the USDX should have triggered substantial rallies in the PMs. What happened instead?Reversals .What Happened to Gold?Gold reversed right at its triangle-vertex-based… well, reversal, and the combination of resistance lines.The reversal in gold took place after gold moved very close to its mid-January highs and the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the August 2020 – March 2021 decline.The sizes of the current rally (taking the second March bottom as the starting point) and the rally that ended at the beginning of this year are practically identical at the moment.Just as the rallies from early 2012 and late 2012 (marked with blue) were almost identical, the same could happen now.The March 2021 low formed well below the previous low, but as far as other things are concerned, the current situation is similar to what happened in 2012.The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.Interestingly, the 2012 rally had ended in huge volume, which is exactly what we saw on Friday. To be 100% precise, the 2012 rally didn’t end then, but it was when over 95% of the rally was over. Gold moved very insignificantly higher since that time. Most importantly, though, it was the “dollars to the upside, hundreds of dollars to the downside” situation. And it seems that we are in this kind of situation right now once again.Interestingly, back in 2013 gold started its gargantuan (…) slide from about $1,800 and it is not far from this level also today.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the RSI indicator just topped slightly above 70, which is what tends to happen when gold tops. The upside seems very limited. In fact, it seems that the top in gold is already in.The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped. I don’t want to get into too many USD-related short-term details, as I did that yesterday, but let’s take a closer look at the short-term developments on the stock market .Stock MarketIn short, the situation doesn’t look pretty. To explain, I wrote the following on May 11:The markets are self-similar (which is another way of saying that they have a fractal nature), which generally means that while the history tends to rhyme, it also tends to rhyme in similar shapes of alike or various sizes.For example, the rally from 2018–2020 seems very similar to the rally from 2020 to the present. Both rallies started after a sharp decline, and the first notable correction took the form of back-and-forth trading around the previous high. I marked those situations with big rectangles.Then the rally continued with relatively small week-to-week volatility. I created rising support lines based on the final low of the broad short-term consolidation and the first notable short-term bottom.This line was broken, and some back-and-forth trading followed, but it was only about half of the previous correction in terms of price and time.Then, we saw a sharp rally that then leveled off. And that was the top . The thing that confirmed the top was the visible breakdown below the rising support line right after stocks invalidated a tiny breakout to new highs. That’s what happened in February 2020, and that’s what happened this month.“Time is more important than price; when the time comes, the price will reverse”. Both rallies took an almost identical amount of time: 60 weeks vs. 59 weeks.Stocks moved a bit higher recently, but yesterday’s and today’s pre-market decline seem to be telling investors that the initial slide was not just another correction in the bull market. This is the first time when the S&P 500 was unable to get back above its rising support line after temporarily breaking below it. Instead, we saw an attempt to rally, and now we see another slide lower.This is bearish for gold’s forecast , but also very bearish for silver and mining stocks, which are more correlated with the stock market than gold is.Speaking of silver, let’s take a look at its price chart.The white metal has clearly reversed yesterday (May 18), and at the moment of writing these words, it’s trading back below its May 10 high and the $28 level. Just like it is the case with gold, it seems to me that the outlook for silver is bearish.Mining stocks seem to have reversed in a rather odd manner, but in one that’s ultimately in tune with how tops are formed based on technical analysis principles.The same (or very similar) opening and closing price levels accompanied by an intraday reversal after an intraday decline – when seen after a short-term rally – are called a “hanging man” candlestick. In short, it’s one of the reversal candlestick patterns. It should have been confirmed by a huge volume – it wasn’t, so it’s not that important, though.The most important details are still based on the preceding day’s huge volume, the RSI, and the way the GDX ETF topped in the past.The GDX ETF soared to new highs on volume that was much greater than 40M shares. This happened only three times in the past 12 months. In each of those three cases, it was a major top, or it was very, very close to it.The RSI just moved above 70, and it happened only twice recently. One time it heralded the 2020 top, and the other time we saw it in late February 2020 – right before a huge slide started.Consequently, taking all the above into account, it seems to me that the situation in the precious metals market is very bearish right now, as it seems to be either topping or after the top. If I didn’t have a short position in the junior mining stocks right now, I would have opened it today.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Bug in Search of Windshield

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.05.2021 15:54
S&P 500 lackluster performance gave way to heavy selling right before the close, when the wheels came simultaneously off the stock and corporate bond market just as the prior Wednesday. This time though, VIX isn‘t spiking to force algos to rebalance their volatility weighted positions, meaning there‘s one less support for the bulls in the short run. Equally dangerously, the put/call ratio moved to its second lowest May reading yesterday, highlighting plenty of room to jack up risk-off positioning next.The Fed minutes aren‘t likely to quell the inflationary fears when the central bank‘s manual consists mostly of transitory inflation talking points and tolerance to upside overshoots. The market is thinking otherwise, and the speed with which stocks seem to be discounting the P&L impact of cost-push inflation, sends a warning as clear as the dissipating PPI effects. Just wait for when the job market pressures add in. In my view, the market is worrying that the Fed is losing / has lost the inflation battle.Inflation expectations are running hotter (and so is inflation on the ground and in the pipeline hitting shortly), yet bond yields aren‘t compensating enough. That‘s the dynamic I described on May 10 right when it first appeared. As said, inflation is the tool to eventually sink stocks, and the fear is hitting value and tech alike. The S&P 500 pendulum swinging again bullish gets thus delayed until the market regains confidence as the sea of red would likely encompass the more inflation-sensitive part of precious metals (silver is much more vulnerable than gold), hottest commodities (lumber, copper) and (driven also by different reasons but still) cryptos as well. Hard to hide somewhere when even the dollar keeps tanking in line with my almost weekly calls of late (such move just helps emerging markets).Gold and silver survived the pressure quite fine unless you look at today‘s premarket figures. The consolidation I warned about on Monday, is arriving into the sector, and miners are about to send a valuable signal as to what we can expect next with respect to the pullback unfolding. Keep in mind though that as I stated a month ago, the unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates, are forming a bid below the metals, mainly below gold. What started as a decoupling from rising nominal yields that I talked in early Mar, will continue in a more obvious way, the more the markets would worry about Fed‘s perceived control over inflation.Crude oil is being hit alongside commodities, and it hasn‘t been the star performer in the least. Nonetheless, it suffers without breaking below its recent range, and the oil sector ($XOI) isn‘t leading the selling spree thankfully for the bulls.Bitcoin and Ethereum gave up yesterday‘s intraday gains, facilitated by the China crackdown, which is pointing to my way earlier Twitter comments about better partying wisely as the greatest risk is the regulatory one (Elon aside). Out of the Monday introduced long Ethereum short Bitcoin spread, only the increasingly profitable short Bitcoin part remains on. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 turned lower from the 4,180 level, never making it above my target that would flip the posture bullish again. The downside risks remain for now.Credit MarketsCorporate bonds – whether high yield or investment grade ones – disappointed with the slide into the closing bell, and Monday‘s daily fluctuation is no longer merely a fluctuation.Technology and Value$NYFANG, $XLK or $VTV, it didn‘t make much difference, and the uniform selling across the board is an ill omen.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners hit stall speed yesterday, and I am looking at the latter for clues as to where the fuel meter in the precious metals rally stands. The nominal yields effect right now is getting less relevant.Silver paused as well, and the copper to 10-year yield ratio remains vulnerable.Bitcoin and EthereumThe downswing continues unabated in both cryptos shown, and there are no signs the bottom has been reached yet.SummaryS&P 500 bulls need to prove themselves, and there is no guarantee it would happen today. The VIX says it‘s little likely actually.Gold and miners will have to defend the upswing as silver is getting under selling pressure alongside hot or not too hot commodites.Crude oil chart and oil index performance support higher prices, but the commodity is caught in the selling pressure in spite of not rising too steeply before.Bitcoin woes continue in a dramatic fashion, and so do the Ethereum ones. The bottom isn‘t yet in.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stock Market Attempts To Break Support Channel – What's Next?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 19.05.2021 22:12
The recent price volatility related to the surprise Jobs number, nearly ten days ago, and the potential for inflationary price trends extended beyond the Fed expectations has created a unique type of sideways price rotation on the INDU chart.  This recent price volatility suggests the markets are struggling to identify future trend bias as well as attempting to shake out certain traders and investors (running stops).Additionally, the downside price trend we've recently seen in Lumber, breaking away from the continued rally mode, and Bitcoin, breaking downward nearly -54% from recent highs, suggests a broad market “washout” is taking place.  How far will this trend continue?  Will the US stock market break downward like Bitcoin has recently done?  Let's take a look at the charts and try to answer some of these questions.Before we continue exploring charts, I suggest readers review some of my recent research posts relating to this potential downward price trend in the US/Global markets, including: Are We Days Away From Potential Gann/Fibonacci Price Peak? (March 17, 2021); Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues (April 25, 2021); and Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering a Technical ‘Excess Phase Top’? Should You Be In Cash Right Now? Part II (May 15, 2021).Expect Continued Price Volatility As Markets Attempt To Establish New TrendsWe'll start by exploring the Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily chart, below, and the first thing we want to highlight is the extended upward (YELLOW) price trend channel.  This upward sloping price channel has been in force since the March 2020 COVID-19 lows.  It was confirmed by the November 2020 lows and retested in March 2021.  Typically, when price channels this strongly over an extended period of time, the price channel becomes a psychological barrier/wall for price trending.  When it is breached or broken, price trends often react moderately aggressively – with excessive volatility.Over the past 10+ days, near the right edge of this chart, we can see that price has started to react with much higher volatility and broad sideways price trends.  It appears the INDU chart has entered a new phase of market price activity – moving away from moderately low volatility bullish trending and into much higher volatility sideways rotation.  We attribute this to a shift in how traders and investors perceive the future actions of the US Fed and how risks are suddenly much more prominent than they were 3+ weeks ago.  It appears the “rally euphoria” has ended and traders are starting to adjust expectations related to a slower economic reflation of the global economy.Depending on how traders and investors perceive the future growth opportunities in the US and global markets, as well as how new strains of the COVID-19 virus may continue to disrupt global economies, we may see a fairly big change in trend throughout the rest of 2021 and possibly into 2020.  In our opinion, the tremendous rally phase that took place between October 2020 and now has been anchored on the perception that the COVID vaccines would allow for an almost immediate and nearly full economic recovery attempt.  Now, after we are seeing various new strains of COVID ravage India, Europe, Africa and parts of South-East Asia, expectations may be changing quickly.Everything Hinges On How Price Reacts Near The YELLOW Support Channel LineThis Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average chart highlights the same upward sloping price trend from the March 2020 COVID-19 lows.  It also shows the start of the broad market rotation over the past three weeks and highlights three key “standout lows” that we interpret as critical support levels.  These support levels are at $32,090, 30,575, and $29,875.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!If we continue to see downward price trending which breaks through the YELLOW upward sloping price channel line, it is very likely that price will continue to move lower while attempting to find new support near these standout low price levels.  This suggests any breakdown in the INDU may prompt a further -5% to -11% downside price move.If the recent price rotation stalls and continues to find support above the YELLOW upward sloping price channel line, then we expect the US markets to transition into a sideways bottoming formation which will prompt another rally attempt in the near future. Everything hinges on what happens over the next few weeks related to this key YELLOW upward sloping price channel.What this means for traders and Investors is that certain market sectors are still posed for strength and growth over the next 6 to 12 months.  The recent downside price volatility suggests broad market concerns related to a continued reflation trade are certainly evident in how the markets are trending.  Yet, within this potential sideways rotation, there are sectors and trends that still present very real opportunities for profits. If the major US indexes find support above the YELLOW price channel line and attempt to mount another rally, traders need to be prepared for this potential opportunity in the markets – attempting to target the best and strongest market sectors.As I just mentioned, everything hinges on what happens over the next few days and weeks related to the YELLOW price support channel.  One way or another, the markets are either going to attempt to rally higher while this support channel holds or a bigger breakdown event may take place as price breaks below the support channel and attempts to find new, lower, support.Learn why we moved our BAN clients into CASH over a week ago and learn how we use the BAN trading strategy to manage risks and take advantage of the strongest market sectors. Please take a minute to learn about our BAN Trader Pro strategy and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Enjoy the rest of your day!!
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Intraday Market Analysis – Euro Searches For Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 20.05.2021 07:43
EURUSD retreats from resistanceThe euro slowed its advance after April’s CPI dropped to 0.7% YoY.The pair has met selling pressure at February’s peak at 1.2240. An overbought RSI is likely to prompt short-term players to take profit, pushing the price into a deeper correction.The divergence is a sign of loss of momentum in the bid war. The previous supply zone near 1.2150 has turned into a support where buyers may wait for a bargain.On the upside, a bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally above 1.2300.USDCAD rebounds to resistanceThe US dollar climbed back after the Fed minutes left the door open for discussing tapering. The pair had previously dipped below September 2017’s low at 1.2060, increasing the downward pressure.The rebound may turn out to be elusive just to let the RSI recover into the neutral area. The price action faces multiple layers of resistance.After clearing the closest one at 1.2135 early bulls will need to lift 1.2200 to force sellers to start to fold.On the downside, a return to 1.2010 may send the exchange rate towards 1.1920.UK 100 consolidates above major supportFTSE 100 remains under pressure after the UK’s inflation doubled to 1.5% last month. The surge from the demand area near 6840 indicates buyers’ commitment to keep the boat afloat.Recent whipsaws are a strong sign of the market’s indecision in the short term. Sideways action may offer opportunities for range trading.The psychological level of 6900 is a demand area. An oversold RSI could help lift the index temporarily.7066 is the immediate resistance and its breach could send the price back to 7166.
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10-Year Note Yields: Opportunity to Benefit?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.05.2021 15:43
Given yesterday’s headlines with Bitcoin plunging, did you take a peek at interest rates? Could a stronger dollar lie ahead with higher rates?While everybody’s eyes are peeled on cryptocurrencies and a crowded short DXY trade, let’s revisit the potentially polar opposite of a crypto instrument: 10-year notes. Yields rose on Wednesday, settling at 1.683%, just off the intraday high of 1.692%. I like to take a look when few others are looking. As yields closed near the highs of the day, with other risk assets seeming out of favor, at least temporarily, let’s revisit the 10-year notes.Figure 1 -CBOE 10-year US Treasury Yield Daily Candles January 19, 2021 - May 19, 2021. Source stockcharts.comBonds and equities have an interesting relationship. The trade that has worked in recent years has been long the bonds or 10-year notes (short yield) and long the $SPX . That trade has worked for a long, long time, overall. However, trends eventually change and given the current environment of the US Dollar Index approaching a key long-term Fibonacci retracement level, and yields looking like they want to climb, things could turn out differently in the short run.In my May 11th publication , we were eyeing potential precision entry levels for a short trade in the June 10-year notes (higher yields). Remember, bond prices and yields move inversely to one another . We discussed some key technical indicators, and the idea was sound. Reviewing this analysis, the 50-day moving average was a key level that was analyzed and discussed. That idea was put on pause due to the bounceback that occurred in the $SPX , and a trader would usually not want to be caught short bonds with a snapback rally and $VIX crush in the cards. Since that is so “last week”, we can now take a look and see what has transpired since then. The 50-day moving average has held like a rock in $TNX over 4 trading sessions. We can see what appears to be a “cup and handle(y) type of bullish continuation pattern that is forming here. It just feels like rates want to rise, and therefore the 10-year note futures could fall.Figure 2 -June 10-year T-Note Futures CBOT (ZNM2021) 4 Hour Candles April 12, 2021 - May 19, 2021. Source tradingview.comIt really doesn’t get more textbook than this , as we can see a clear head and shoulders formation occurring here in the June 10-year notes. Rallies to the neckline have stalled, and yields have been finding support at the 50-day MA. Notice the potentially bearish MACD (12,26,9) action on the 4-hour candle chart, trading just south of the zero line. RSI(14) appears to be anything but bullish.But, what do you think? The Fed says rates will remain “lower for longer”. That theme still exists. However, please remember that the Fed only sets the overnight lending rate and not the longer-term duration rates. Thankfully, free markets determine such rates. What is the market telling us? And what about the DXY? As we approach some longer-term important technical levels, how could this affect the price of 10-year notes? There is a flux of data pulling markets in bipolar directions at this time, in my opinion, and this could create opportunity.Based on the recent price action, there could be a potential opportunity to benefit from a market curve pricing discrepancy between the actual short-term rate levels set by the Fed, and what the charts are showing us with the recent action in the 10-year note.Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s dig into the ZNM2021 short-term technicals and the potential key levels for today. In addition, we have been stalking the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) , which is especially interesting, given yesterday's action in Bitcoin. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian ContributorSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Markets Rising from the Ashes

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.05.2021 15:52
S&P 500 caught a partial bid yesterday, enough to stave off the break of prior Wednesday‘s lows. All isn‘t fine under the surface though as yet another Fed trial baloon emerges – this time, talking about talking taper, doing predictable wonders for the dollar. As I have stated, it‘s when the Fed would really move that the greenback would go up again. The important word here is „really“ - this doesn‘t qualify yet, but the noises can‘t be ignored.That‘s taking me to the partial bid mention as it shows in the S&P 500 sectoral action – tech rises and value continues trembling. The Russell 2000 keeps lagging while emerging markets seem to still doubt the Fed‘s seriousness. But the VIX daily move is positive as the daily spike has been clearly rejected – another, this time a smaller and pickier algo repositioning at work. At the same time, option players got positioned for another shoe to drop, tying in well with their moves overall since late Feb.Inflationary fears aren‘t by any means quelled just yet – Treasuries disregarded yesterday‘s retreat in inflation expectations. The Fed approach needs a refresher:(...) when the central bank‘s manual consists mostly of transitory inflation talking points and tolerance to upside overshoots. The market is thinking otherwise, and the speed with which stocks seem to be discounting the P&L impact of cost-push inflation, sends a warning as clear as the dissipating PPI effects. Just wait for when the job market pressures add in. In my view, the market is worrying that the Fed is losing / has lost the inflation battle.At the same time, the Fed is prepping / making noises it‘s prepping for the inflation specter. As said, inflation is the tool to eventually sink stocks, and the fear is hitting value and tech alike. Yet similarly to Nasdaq upswing yesterday, corporate credit markets are sending a glimmer of hope that the return to risk-on is approaching, and could lift the challenged value stocks, which typically don‘t take well to retreating yields lately. At the same time, we‘re still in the phase of their outperformance of tech, which is in line with the reflation and reopening themes. The discrepancies in sectoral performance of late are the explanation behind the S&P 500 pendulum swinging bullish delayed again.Gold caught a safe haven bid but the miners hesitated to a degree. Silver sold off in sympathy with most commodities, but not much has changed overall in the precious metals upswing anatomy. Yes, the upcoming soft patch I first mentioned on Monday, isn‘t over yet – but the miners to gold ratio says this is just white noise aka pullback within an uptrend. Metals bulls needn‘t worry, and could time it the way I did – to take off the table sizable open profits in the maxed out position sizing limits of mine that had been accumulating since the march to imperfect second bottom in late Mar. Keep in mind the big picture:(…) as I stated a month ago, the unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates, are forming a bid below the metals, mainly below gold. What started as a decoupling from rising nominal yields that I talked in early Mar, will continue in a more obvious way, the more the markets would worry about Fed‘s perceived control over inflation.By the same token, the more the Fed moves to control nominal rates, the more under pressure real rates would get. Patience still though as I am looking for the 10-year yield to trend modestly lower over the coming weeks, and for return of rising yields in early autumn. For now, metals keep looking forward, discounting…Crude oil isn‘t happy about the Iranian deal, and keeps searching for a bottom. It would however come back once the risk appetite returns. For now, let‘s see where the bulls would step in – the oil sector ($XOI) still favors that to happen relatively soon.Bitcoin and Ethereum are recovering from yesterday plunge, and more than a few bulls are dipping their toes in. The worst certainly appears to be over, and the very profitable Bitcoin short (closed yesterday) resulted in smashing gains. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 is far out of the woods just yet – the market breadth attests to weakening leadership. While the bullish percent index remains okay for now, new highs new lows better start recovering alongside value.Credit MarketsCorporate bonds – whether high yield or investment grade ones – show an early sign of S&P 500 support, the junk ones especially.Technology and ValueTech rose without much help from $NYFANG, but it‘s value that needs to be watched closely. Fed-driven change in gears wouldn‘t serve the sector well.Gold, Silver and MinersGold bulls better get ready to defend gained ground as a move lower appears increasingly likely, not only the miners say.The copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio spells short-term caution for both gold and silver.Crude OilCrude oil is about to form a local low quite soon, and the starting signs of accumulation are there.SummaryS&P 500 bulls have the initiative and budding credit market support. How well they defend the gains, needs to be watched closely next.Gold and miners still indicate we haven‘t left the soft patch as silver waits for more support from the commodities space.Crude oil is stabilizing and the oil index supports higher prices, but the local bottom isn‘t yet formed.Bitcoin and Ethereum recovery goes on, making it worthwhile to eye an opportune entry point after the washout.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold Approaches $1,900 amid FOMC Minutes and Crypto Sell-Off

Gold Approaches $1,900 amid FOMC Minutes and Crypto Sell-Off

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.05.2021 16:31
The latest FOMC minutes were dovish, especially in light of the recent increase in inflation and elevated asset valuations. What does it mean for gold?Yesterday, the FOMC published minutes from its last meeting in April . They’ve shown two things doing that: first, that some of the central bankers are worried about the inflation and elevated asset valuations; and, second, that the Fed is going to remain dovish despite all these concerns .Indeed, some FOMC participants noted that the demand for labor had started to put some upward pressure on wages. Moreover, a number of them pointed out the protracted supply disruptions and the insufficient pre-emptive hawkish reaction from the Fed as potentially inflationary factors:A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year. They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs. (…)A couple of participants commented on the risks of inflation pressures building up to unwelcome levels before they become sufficiently evident to induce a policy reaction.When it comes to financial stability and asset valuations, several FOMC members pointed out elevated risk appetite and very low credit spreads . And certain participants noted dangers related to the low interest rates and excessive risk-taking: if the risk appetite fades, the asset prices could decline with potentially harmful consequences for the financial sector and the economy:Regarding asset valuations, several participants noted that risk appetite in capital markets was elevated, as equity valuations had risen further, IPO activity remained high, and risk spreads on corporate bonds were at the bottom of their historical distribution. A couple of participants remarked that, should investor risk appetite fall, an associated drop in asset prices coupled with high business and financial leverage could have adverse implications for the real economy. A number of participants commented on valuation pressures being somewhat elevated in the housing market. Some participants mentioned the potential risks to the financial system stemming from the activities of hedge funds and other leveraged investors, commenting on the limited visibility into the activities of these entities or on the prudential risk-management practices of dealers’ prime-brokerage businesses. Some participants highlighted potential vulnerabilities in other parts of the financial system, including run-prone investment funds in short-term funding and credit markets. Various participants commented on the prolonged period of low interest rates and highly accommodative financial market conditions and the possibility for these conditions to lead to reach-for-yield behavior that could raise financial stability risks.So, given all these concerns about financial stability and higher inflation, the Fed should send some hawkish signals, right? Not at all! On the contrary, the US central bank reiterated its ultra-dovish stance, justifying that the economy was far from achieving full employment.Participants commented on the continued improvement in labor market conditions in recent months. Job gains in the March employment report were strong, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent. Even so, participants judged that the economy was far from achieving the Committee's broad-based and inclusive maximum-employment goal. Payroll employment was 8.4 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level. Some participants noted that the labor market recovery continued to be uneven across demographic and income groups and across sectors.After all, higher inflation would only be transitory, and when these short-term factors fade, inflation will decrease:In their comments about inflation, participants anticipated that inflation as measured by the 12-month change of the PCE price index would move above 2 percent in the near term as very low readings from early in the pandemic fall out of the calculation. In addition, increases in oil prices were expected to pass through to consumer energy prices. Participants also noted that the expected surge in demand as the economy reopens further, along with some transitory supply chain bottlenecks, would contribute to PCE price inflation temporarily running somewhat above 2 percent. After the transitory effects of these factors fade, participants generally expected measured inflation to ease. Looking further ahead, participants expected inflation to be at levels consistent with achieving the Committee's objectives over time (…) Despite the expected short-run fluctuations in measured inflation, many participants commented that various measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored at levels broadly consistent with achieving the Committee's longer-run goals.Yeah, sure, but why should we believe the Fed if they were surprised by the CPI readings in April? They anticipated inflation moving above 2 percent, and meanwhile the CPI inflation surged above 4 percent as the chart below shows!But at least inflation expectations remain well-anchored, don’t they? Well, not exactly . As the chart below shows, the market-based expectations of inflation have significantly risen recently. Similarly, the University of Michigan’s index that measures inflation expectations for the next five years rose from 2.7 percent in April to 3.1 percent in May – it’s the highest level in a decade.Interestingly, even the Fed staff doesn’t believe in transitory inflation. After all, they forecast that the actual GDP would be above its potential until 2022-2023:With the boost to growth from continued reductions in social distancing assumed to fade after 2021, GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023. However, with monetary policy assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate that real GDP growth would outpace that of potential over much of this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels.Economics 101 teaches us that when the economy operates above its potential, it implies overheating and inflation that reflects more fundamental or lasting factors than base effects and short-term supply disruptions.Implications for GoldWhat do the recent FOMC minutes imply for gold? Well, the Fed remaining dovish despite all the inflationary risks and elevated asset valuations (many assets plunged yesterday, especially cryptocurrencies) is bullish for gold .Sure, a few members became ready to start talking about tapering the quantitative easing and tightening the monetary policy :A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the (policy-setting) Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.However, “a number” is not “the majority”, so we shouldn’t expect such a discussion in the mainstream anytime soon, especially in light of the disappointing April nonfarm payrolls and recent declines in the stock market.The price of gold rose yesterday, approaching $1,900. It might have been due to the FOMC minutes, but also the sell-off in cryptocurrencies and the following outflow of money from them into old, good gold.Given these shifts in the marketplace, it seems that Fed’s worries about fading risk appetite were justified. If risk appetite wanes further, gold should shine as a safe-haven asset .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Holds Onto Major Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.05.2021 09:35
AUDUSD treads water above supportThe Australian dollar recovered as last month’s jobless rate fell to 5.5%. The pair is currently in an extended consolidation above the key daily support at 0.7690.Buyers’ failure to hold could send the Aussie back to 0.7600 which is critical to the integrity of the uptrend. 0.7815 acts as a gatekeeper after a rebound stopped short of pushing higher.Only by clearing this resistance would buyers commit more chips to the table. A bullish breakout may resume the rally with 0.7890 as the first target.CADJPY goes into temporary correctionThe Canadian dollar bounced back after the job market showed the third straight month of gains. The strong bearish momentum below the psychological level of 90.00 was an indication of profit-taking.The RSI has recovered to the neutrality area following the initial dip. Though it would be too soon to call a reversal as the price action has built support on its way up. 89.60 is the closest one.Further down 89.05 is important to maintain the bullish bias. A rally above 90.60 may prompt more trend followers to jump in.SPX 500 consolidates above key supportUS equity markets remain subdued as risk appetite takes a backseat. The S&P 500 has pierced through the 30-day moving average, adding pressure on the buy-side.The price action is again testing the demand area around 4040 after a short-lived rebound. A bearish breakout could trigger a new wave of sell-off to 3900. On the upside, 4185, former support turned into resistance is a major obstacle before the rally could carry on.In the meantime, sideways actions within a 140-point range may last into the weekend.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Will Bitcoin Replace Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.05.2021 13:47
Bitcoin’s popularity and price are rising. However, cryptocurrencies could be seen as complementary, not substitutive to gold.What a rally ! Unfortunately, I’m not referring to gold, but to Bitcoin . As the chart below shows, the price of the first and the biggest of cryptocurrencies rose to above $60,000 in April 2021 from scratch (or $124) in October 2013 when the chart starts. I wish I had bought more coins in these early years of cryptocurrencies and held them for longer! More recently, Bitcoin has skyrocketed almost 1200% from its bottom of $4,945 during the asset sell-off in March 2020.OK, but why am I writing about Bitcoin in the Gold Market Overview? The reason is the narrative that the cryptocurrency has already become or will become soon the substitute for gold. Some people even call Bitcoin “new gold” or “millennial gold”. And this is what Jerome Powell has recently said about cryptocurrencies:Crypto assets are highly volatile and therefore not useful as a store of value. They are not backed by anything. It is a speculative asset that is essentially a substitute for gold rather than for the dollar.Others echo Powell’s remarks, claiming that Bitcoin is displacing gold as an inflation hedge , or that it could supplant gold as a safe-haven asset . Are they right?Well, there are, of course, some similarities between Bitcoin and gold which make these two assets substitutes to some extent . It would be surprising if that wasn’t the case, given the fact that Bitcoin’s system was designed to mimic the gold standard . In particular, there is a cap on the number of bitcoins to make this cryptocurrency rare just like the yellow metal. In other words, the idea is to make its supply inflexible, just as – or even more – in the gold standard. So, both Bitcoin and gold are anti-inflationary currencies whose supply cannot be arbitrarily changed like in the case of national fiat currencies . And both these assets have a libertarian, anti-government flavor – in the sense that demand for them stems from the lack of confidence in the government monies.However, there are also important differences between Bitcoin and gold. First of all, although Bitcoin is believed to be an alternative anti-fiat asset, it’s actually also fiat money . It’s a private, decentralized, non-governmental currency, but it doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not backed by anything, and it has no intrinsic value. Of course, value is subjective, but gold has some non-monetary use (in jewelry or technology), which implies that its price is not likely to drop to zero in a worst-case scenario in which people cease to see gold as a monetary asset. Unlike the shiny metal, Bitcoin has only monetary value – i.e., you cannot use it either as a consumer good or as an input in a production process – so there is no floor below its price (if the officials try to ban Bitcoin, its price could plunge really deeply).Second, Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold . Sure, it might be just a problem of Bitcoin’s young age. But it doesn’t change the fact that price declines in the cryptocurrency are a few times bigger than in the gold market. Hence, although – thanks to the network effects and speculative appeal – Bitcoin offers potential for quicker and larger gains, it’s also associated with higher downward risks. It makes the cryptocurrency an inferior store of value and a safe haven. So, Bitcoin could be seen rather as a risky asset, not necessarily a safe haven that goes up together with risk appetite. This may explain the recent divergence in cryptocurrencies and gold.What does it all mean for the gold market ? Well, it’s true that some money has flowed from gold into Bitcoin and that some investors may prefer now to treat Bitcoin as a major alternative asset in their investment portfolios . However, such flows and rebalancing of portfolios as we’ve seen recently are perfectly normal, especially given that Bitcoin is still benefiting from the network effects, i.e., the accelerating institutional interest and mainstream acceptance.More importantly, there are important differences between gold and Bitcoin, which imply that the latter won’t replace the yellow metal . The correlation coefficient between the weekly prices of these two assets is only 0.38 percent, so they are really far away from being perfect substitutes. Also, please take a look at the chart below which shows their prices in 2019-2021.As you can see, gold reached its peak in early August, while the rally in the cryptocurrency started in October, two months later. Hence, it should be clear that Bitcoin didn’t cause the plunge in gold prices . We could even hypothesize that gold has undergone (or is undergoing) a healthy correction, which is still ahead of Bitcoin. After all, its price chart looks parabolic, which brings to mind the possibility of a bubble (although network effects can be partially responsible for this shape).Anyway, for us, these two assets are rather distinct despite all the similarities. And they both can coexist together as hedges against national fiat currencies, as they complement each other. Bitcoin can be used in instant payments, cross-border payments and as a highly risky speculative asset, while gold has non-monetary value and provides long-term stability. But Bitcoin’s rise in popularity doesn’t pose an existential threat to gold. After all, the yellow metal has an exceptional track record of being the ultimate money, proving its value over millennia .Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Gold, Silver, Miners: The Zenith and Its Shadows

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.05.2021 14:49
Most likely we saw the precious metals reach their zenith on May 19, like the tropical sun on the day of the equinox. What will come afterward?Usually, when we think about the zenith, we have in mind a natural phenomenon caused by the tropical sun being exactly over our heads. But the zenith can also mean that something reached its peak – and just as the sun starts casting increasingly longer shadows after retreating from the highest point in the sky, the same happens when an asset on the market starts backing out after topping.Its shadow – i.e., its ramifications – is cast in one particular direction, and it usually goes this way until the sun sets. Therefore, just as the shadows are getting longer, and longer, and longer, the drop after the top could go lower, and lower, and lower…During yesterday’s (May 20) session, we saw more or less the repeat of the previous day’s indications – gold stocks reversed once again, and gold is trading where it was trading two days ago. Silver is already trading lower. Consequently, much of my previous comments remain up-to-date.On Wednesday, gold miners reversed in a classically bearish way, and yesterday’s low-volume session (also a reversal) looks like Wednesday’s reversal’s shadow.The GDX ETF first tried to rally to new highs, then it failed to hold them. Wednesday’s reversal took place on big volume (important bearish confirmation), and the “shadow reversal” took place on relatively low volume. The low volume doesn’t confirm the reversal, but it more or less invalidates the seemingly bullish fact that miners closed yesterday’s session higher.Moreover, please note that the volume was similarly low to what we saw on January 7, 2021, when the 4-day top was ending. Yesterday was the fourth day of what appears to be a broad top.Let’s also keep in mind that the RSI indicator just moved back below 70 after being above it. This happens rarely, and when it happened previously (in the past 1.5 years), it meant that a huge price decline was about to follow.Silver reversed in a different manner.The white metal didn’t move to new highs yesterday. Conversely, it moved lower, and then it only recovered intraday decline without moving visibly higher ( silver futures ended the day only $0.04 higher). The true reversal happened on Tuesday – and what we saw yesterday and on Wednesday was just its consequence. It’s quite often the case that the tops and bottoms in the precious metals market take place more or less (!) simultaneously, but not necessarily exactly on the same day. Consequently, what we saw this week is quite normal.Gold didn’t manage to move to new intraday highs yesterday – however, it didn’t decline visibly either.It moved a bit lower in today’s pre-market trading, and overall, it’s just $8 higher than it was at the end of Tuesday’s session. This might seem positive given that gold managed to move slightly above its declining medium-term resistance lines. However, given what’s happening in the mining stocks and all the signals from them, I doubt this breakout will really hold.Here’s another reason: the Fed is attempting to control the long-term rates, and we just saw a short-term exodus from the cryptocurrency market. Theoretically, capital should be flowing into gold as a safe-haven / inflation-hedge asset, and it should be soaring . But it’s not. It did move higher recently, but compared to what “should have” happened given the importance of the above-mentioned developments, the reaction is barely noticeable.Instead, gold seems to be insisting on repeating – to some extent – its 2012 performance, and – to some extent – its 2008 performance. Either way, it seems that gold is about to slide.The reversal in gold took place after gold moved very close to its mid-January highs and the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the August 2020 – March 2021 decline.The sizes of the current rally (taking the second March bottom as the starting point) and the rally that ended at the beginning of this year are practically identical at the moment.Just as the rallies from early 2012 and late 2012 (marked with blue) were almost identical, the same could happen now.The March 2021 low formed well below the previous low, but as far as other things are concerned, the current situation is similar to what happened in 2012.The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended in huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year.What is even more interesting is that back in 2013 gold started its gargantuan (…) slide from about $1,800 and it is not far (from the long-term point of view) from this level also today.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the RSI indicator just topped slightly above 70, which is what tends to happen when gold tops. The upside seems very limited. In fact, it seems that the top in gold might already be in.The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Tug of War and Its Profitable Resolution

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.05.2021 15:57
S&P 500 bid is improving in breadth, and the fake moves rich consolidation‘s lows are getting more distant. And they are likely to stay that way as the market reassesses the Fed intentions to talk about talking taper – making the dollar catch a bid at first, the greenback keeps predictably tanking now, meaning that the Fed noises aren‘t to no surprise of mine taken seriously in the currency arena:(…) It‘s when the Fed would really move that the greenback would go up again. The important word here is „really“ - this doesn‘t qualify yet, but the noises can‘t be ignored.The market simply isn‘t convinced the Fed is serious about taking on inflation through (gradual) removal of the punch bowl – or about shaping its forward guidance credibly this way (yet). Inflation expectations are cooling down a little, and the Treasury market is tracking them closely. But this doesn‘t mean that bonds are taking the central bank seriously – this move is part and parcel of the transitory vs. getting (practically permanently unless a Fed game changer arrives – still unlikely) elevated inflation readings debate that I discussed on Monday:(..) while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.Thus I see the Treasury market reprieve as likely to continue, affecting positively tech and the defensive sectors such as utilities (currently forming a bullish flag), or the more bullish consumer staples and industrials posture. We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. The discrepancies in sectoral performance of late have been the explanation behind the S&P 500 pendulum swinging bullish delayed again. Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).VIX is confirming the coming calm and so does the put/call ratio – bulls rejoice as the credit markets point in the same direction too. Inflation sinking P&L and stocks isn‘t yet on the cards, not by a long shot – my open S&P 500 profits keep growing.Gold and silver aren‘t crashed by the Fed noises about prepping for the inflation specter. Quite to the contrary, miners are pulling ahead, and copper offers still a positive view when combined with yields. The precious metals upleg is in no jeopardy as we work through this short-term soft patch in its closing stages – my new gold positions are profitable already.The miners to gold ratio says this is just white noise aka pullback within an uptrend – nothing to disturb the bulls. Keep in mind the big picture:(…) as I stated a month ago, the unavoidable inflation data bringing down real rates, are forming a bid below the metals, mainly below gold. What started as a decoupling from rising nominal yields that I talked in early Mar, will continue in a more obvious way, the more the markets would worry about Fed‘s perceived control over inflation. The more the Fed moves to control nominal rates, the more under pressure real rates would get – more than a single kiss of life for precious metals.Crude oil declined once again but is about to carve out a local bottom. The recent selloff has been a little overdone – that‘s what headline risk usually does. The oil sector ($XOI) isn‘t panicking, and still favors the bulls.Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded from extremely oversold levels, and both are chopping around their 50-day moving averages. Bitcoin is the stronger one here, as can be seen from the strength of yesterday‘s rebound compared to the preceding day‘s selloff starting position. Still, even this choppy environment allowed me to grab some very modest long Ethereum profits as this second oldest crypto isn‘t yet ready to offer more.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWe‘re quite close to the 4,180s level, closing above which I view as key for further S&P 500 gains.Credit MarketsCorporate bonds – whether high yield or investment grade ones – have turned very supportive of S&P 500 gains. I would look next for junk bonds to catch up more vigorously to give the stock bulls some more real legs.Technology and ValueTech and $NYFANG keep rising, bullish Nasdaq bets paying off – and finally value has turned. Watch out though as Fed-driven change in gears wouldn‘t serve VTV well – but again, there is still time.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners are indicating that the upswing pause shouldn‘t be overrated – and nominal yields won‘t stand in the way.The copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio is turning supportive again as the red metal is holding up well in spite of nominal yields retreating or China attempting to cool down domestic speculation in this and other commodities.Bitcoin and EthereumThe caption says it all – the crypto rebound hasn‘t elicited full interest of neither the bulls nor the bears thus far.SummaryS&P 500 bulls still have the initiative and increasing credit market support. I expect the outlook would turn clearly bullish shortly as this correction is much closer to its end that the start of the April started tired sideways trading full of fake breaks higher or lower.Gold and miners posture keeps improving, but look for silver to remain vulnerable to the downside thanks to the pressure on commodities that I expect from both the bond markets and inflation expectation moves.Crude oil is stabilizing and the oil index supports higher prices, but the local bottom isn‘t yet convincingly formed.Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound has stalled, and we‘re in the backing and filling stage with Bitcoin being the stronger one here. The dust hasn‘t settled yet in the crypto land.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Basel 3 the Silver bull

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 21.05.2021 16:12
Gold being the leader in the precious metal sector has a massive effect on Silver, and this is again another factor for our strongly bullish consensus.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Last weeks chart:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 21st, 2021.We published the green part of the daily chart above in our last week’s chartbook release pointing towards the consistency of the lower green regression channel line. With the additional transactional support supply line from our fractional volume analysis at US$26.85, odds were stacked. The astute reader took a low-risk entry below US$27 , the day after chartbook release.  The right side of the chart illustrates the target near US$28.50. This has been the 4th trade in this upward move that allowed for these low-risk market engagements. A part of time closing in towards Basel 3. Typically more significant retracements would follow after such an extension, but we continue to advocate the lower green line to be one for low-risk entries. Only because the situation with Silver due to Basel 3 is unique.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Acquiring coins and bullion:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 20th, 2021.The weekly chart above shows how Silver’s strength doesn’t ease even after a significant up-leg from March 2020. A bullish continuation triangle shows a minor trend within. Transaction volume has cemented a carpet of support below the price. It is again the lower green line that we find most attractive for low-risk trades (acquisitions). Just do not be deterred by the price difference between the spot price and the actual physical acquisition price.It would also come as no surprise if a triangle break would already manifest soon. Especially since US$27 has built itself out to be the significant volume analysis support zone for price.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Easily underestimated:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 20th, 2021.The monthly time frame shows how significant moves can get once the US$20 mark gets penetrated by price. We expect this time around for the price to exceed the US$50 mark. This because, typically, the length of the congestion zone before a range expansion directly influences the size of the following move.We would not be surprised to see a bull trend for many years to come. Doubters that find prices right now to be expensive will look back with agony why they didn’t grab some physical Silver when it was cheap.Basel 3 the Silver bull:A word of advice. Abnormalities like this bring with them changed market behavior. If you came late to the party or weren’t otherwise able yet to take advantage of low-risk entries, do not be discouraged. We mentioned market manipulation in our last two chartbooks. Banks have the resources to participate with an edge towards the market to get their desired physical acquisitions at a price that makes trading bumpy for the individual investor. Don’t bet the farm. Trade small size. Precision trading isn’t required for physical acquisitions since you do not aim to sell a week later.And do not use times like these to change your approach to the market. Generally speaking, you should not change your system when you struggle but either before or after market abnormalities. Confidence is the most crucial part of trading and investing. You do not want to jeopardize this confidence by altering your trading approach if your system might not have produced the desired results yet.Simplify if you feel you have to alter your approach with the toolset that you are familiar with. We are confident that even very small physical Silver acquisitions will make you smile down the road.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 21st, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 24.05.2021 10:15
Yes, a trillion US-Dollar was lost last week in the crypto space, and yes, Elon Musk’s tweets influence Bitcoin that can make one weary or doubtful. More substantial, regulatory concerns got cemented by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell calling cryptocurrencies risky and talking about the implementation of digital currency. This aligning with Chinas crypto ban and their digital yuan release planned. The treasury department was putting a cherry on top of the worry cake, stating that any US$10,000 or more transaction value shall require reporting to the IRS in the future.These shakeup attempts are nothing new, neither are steep price declines. It is pretty common once new inventions start hitting the mainstream, prominent figures gain temporary influence with their opinions. Regulation is THE battle in the discussion about Bitcoin since Bitcoin offers decentralization. That is precisely the reason why bans and centralized digital currencies will gain neither the trust nor the attractiveness of use. In short, Bitcoin isn’t just here to stay. Bitcoin as usual, will after more significant retracements like the one last week, not just advance on a near term basis but also rise to new all-time highs in the long term.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Keep calm and keep trading Bitcoin:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 24th, 2021.Our optimism about Bitcoin’s trend continuation isn’t based on emotional beliefs but factual past of this volatile trading instrument’s volatility. The weekly chart above shows clearly that large retracements from significant highs are standard. It also indicates that consistently old highs are taken out, and a strong directional trend throughout the years has been persistent.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Up-Sideways-Down-Sideways-Up:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 24th, 2021.A common mistake made by market participants is perceiving the market in up and down moves. When emotions flare up in a substantial decline, one asks: “Where do I get in? What is the next support level?” Only in a “V” shaped recovery, an early entry like this is applicable. These “V” rallies are rare. The highest probability is that markets after steep declines or advances trade for a while sideways.Consequently, one doesn’t get a trophy being first. Instead one is sitting duck in a position exposed with time risk without movement. Typically, double bottoms and long stretched-out sideways movements following. As such, we see no urgency to buy into the Bitcoin market. Instead pick Your low-risk entry spot wisely without insisting on being right (=aiming to buy at an ideal low price). BTC-USD, Hourly Chart, Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out, When to buy?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of May 24th, 2021.While professionals might attempt to fade extreme moves, for typical long-term investors, it is a futile endeavor to try to “catch a falling knife” on a massive down day like last Wednesday. After all, who knows if Bitcoin was to turn at US$40,000, US$34,000 or US$30,000.In the above 60 minute chart, we illustrate how to time the following entry from a low-risk perspective. Low-risk perspective being the most meaningful perspective in our view.We had four legs down. Price got cut in half from near US$60,000 down to below US$ 30,000. Very likely, you are emotionally exhausted trying to pinpoint the lows in this ten-day lasting high volatility sale. On top, prices reversed in a “V” shaped fashion from an intraday point of view. They gained 41%. This was another emotional roller coaster. Within the white square these accumulated energies of emotions typically get released by the novice market speculator through entering into a long trade to find him/herself exposed at high risk.We find the very first opportunity that is reasonable on much-reduced size at the double bottom. Still, what we are looking for is an additional washout spike through the new lows set at around US$30,000. This would result in a hammer formation or other Doji-shaped daily bar. Consequently, allowing to then engage the following day with tight stops after bottom building. This setup might as well establish this week.Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out:In principle, two things would need to happen for Bitcoin to be endangered to not outpace any and all other payment methods.First, the opposing digital payment method would need to be limited in supply as Bitcoin is. Secondly, no central figure could be in charge of a system that is self-regulative.Suppose citizens would lose faith in either yuan or dollar as a payment vehicle, for example, due to extreme inflation. Why would the same people find instant trust in their digital counterparts freshly offered as their replacements?Bitcoins’ worth is principle-based. Principles being ultimate truths where one does not need to extend good faith and unearned trust but can lean on a truthful certainty. It will be this truth that will outshine all efforts to keep control.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 24th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Gold: The Past Years Are Often the Best Guides

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.05.2021 15:36
As we know, history tends to rhyme. It’s never the same, but when you zoom out, the bigger picture often looks very similar. What does it mean for gold?Short-term implicationsWith gold’s back-and-forth price action mirroring its behavior from 2012, the yellow metal is likely destined for devaluation.Back then, gold zigzagged with anxiety before suffering a material drawdown. In fact, in early October 2012, it moved slightly above the initial highs right before sliding.Moreover, while the yellow metal has bounced above its declining resistance line (the black line below), the price action mirrors gold’s behavior from early January. If you analyze the blue line below, you can see that investors’ optimism regarding gold’s short-term breakout quickly faded and the yellow metal sunk like a stone. In addition, with gold’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) moving slightly above 70 before the January swoon occurred, an identical development is already playing out in real time.Gold seems to be insisting on repeating – to some extent – its 2012 performance, and – to some extent – its 2008 performance. Either way, it seems that gold is about to slide.The reversal in gold took place after gold moved very close to its mid-January highs and the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the August 2020 – March 2021 decline.The sizes of the current rally (taking the second March bottom as the starting point) and the rally that ended at the beginning of this year are practically identical at the moment.Just as the rallies from early 2012 and late 2012 (marked with blue) were almost identical, the same could happen now.The March 2021 low formed well below the previous low, but as far as other things are concerned, the current situation is similar to what happened in 2012.The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended on huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year. Consequently, forecasting much higher gold prices here doesn’t seem to be justified based on the historical analogies.The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped.Back in 2008, gold corrected to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but it stopped rallying approximately when the USD Index started to rally, and the general stock market accelerated its decline. This time the rally was not as volatile, so the lower – 50% Fibonacci retracement level will hold the rally in check.Taking into consideration that the general stock market has probably just topped and the USD Index is about to rally, then gold is likely to slide for the final time in the following weeks/months. Both above-mentioned markets support this bearish scenario and so do the self-similar patterns in terms of gold price itself.MACD and the Long TermApproaching the subject from a different side, remember the huge gap between the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate? The situation in the very long-term MACD indicator is yet another confirmation that what we saw recently is similar to what we saw before the huge 2012 – 2013 slide. We get the same confirmation from the gold to bonds ratio, and I’ll move to that a bit later.With February’s monthly close the last piece of the puzzle, the MACD indicator’s sell-signal is now perfectly clear. If you analyze the chart below (at the bottom right), you can see that the MACD line has crossed the signal line from above – a development that preceded significant drawdowns in 2008 and 2011.Based on gold’s previous performance after the major sell signals from the MACD indicator, one could now expect gold to bottom in the ~$1,200 to ~1,350 range. Given the price moves that we witnessed in 1988, 2008 and 2011, historical precedent implies gold forming a bottom in this range. However, due to the competing impact of several different variables, it’s possible that the yellow metal could receive the key support at a higher level.Only a shade below the 2011 high, today’s MACD reading is still the second-highest reading in the last 40 years. More importantly though, if you analyze the chart below (the red arrows at the bottom), the last four times the black line cut through the red line from above, a significant drawdown occurred.Also ominous is that the magnitude of the drawdowns in price tend to coincide with the magnitude of the preceding upswings in MACD. And with today’s reading only surpassed by 2011, a climactic move to the $1,250/$1,450 range isn’t out of the question for gold. The above is based on how low gold had previously declined after a similarly important sell signal from the MACDNow, the month is not over yet, so one might say that it’s too early to consider the sell signal that’s based on monthly closing prices , but it seems that given the level that the MACD had previously reached and the shape of the top in the black line, it makes the situation so similar to 2011/2012 that the sell signal itself is just a cherry on the bearish analytical cake.Considering the reliability of the MACD indicator a sell signal for major declines, the reading also implies that gold’s downtrend could last longer and be more severe than originally thought. As a result, $1,500 remains the most likely outcome, with $1,350 still in the cards.As further evidence, if you focus your attention on the monthly price action in 2008, you can see that gold is behaving exactly as it did before it suffered a significant decline.Please see below:To explain, after making a new all-time high in 2008 (that was a breakout above the 1980 tops), gold declined back to its rising support line before recording a short-term corrective upswing. This upswing ended approximately at gold’s previous monthly closing price. I marked it with a horizontal, blue, dashed line.Similarly, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that an identical pattern has emerged. With gold’s corrective upswing following a reconnection with its rising support line, history implies that a sharp decline should occur in the coming months and that the reversal is at hand or already behind us. After all, the thing that triggered the decline almost a year ago was the fact that gold made a new all-time high . Moreover, the recent high was very close to the previous high in terms of the monthly closing prices (Dec. 2020 - $1,895.10 vs. the recent intraday high of $1,891.30).What about the HUI Index?Not only are ominous signs emerging from gold’s medium-and-long-term charts, but beneath the surface, the gold miners are also folding their hands. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the HUI Index back-and-forth price action mirrors its behavior from 2008 and 2012 and its bearish head & shoulders pattern is also gaining similarity. In addition, the BUGS (after all, HUI is called the Gold Bugs Index) stochastic oscillator has moved all-in like the 2012 analogue (depicted at the bottom part of the chart below), and thus, it seems to be only a matter of time before the HUI Index completely blows its bankroll.Please see below:To explain, the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over. And with investors rejecting the HUI’s recent attempt to break above the 61.8% level, the house of cards is slowly coming down.The bottom line?If the HUI Index hasn’t already peaked, history implies that a top is increasingly imminent. As a result, in my opinion, now is the time to enter short positions and not exit them.Now, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw (a move above 320 is still close to 300 from the long-term point of view). To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.In addition, the recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short term only.The thing is that the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. During the walk, this might result in getting lost, and the implications are no different in the investment landscape.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Your Week Ahead: S&P 500 to Commodities Ratio May Tell a Story

Your Week Ahead: S&P 500 to Commodities Ratio May Tell a Story

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.05.2021 16:37
As commodities rise, are there any clues about the direction of broader US markets? Measuring correlations can help to spot trends across asset classes.As we head into the new week, we want to be aware of the impending data releases that can affect timing and sentiment. This week is a mild to moderate week on the US economic data side of things, with the largest market impact event happening on Thursday, May 27th, in the form of Preliminary GDP q/q (quarter over quarter) . This number is reported in an annualized fashion (so it is the quarterly change x4). Market participants are forecasting a print of 6.4%. Also, bear in mind that this is the Preliminary GDP number. There are three different GDP data releases, the Advance GDP (earliest indication and usually most impactful on markets), Preliminary GDP (this one), and then Final. A bullish print usually strengthens the US Dollar (not always, but usually).Other than the GDP print, FOMC members Brainard, and Bostic speak on Monday morning, FOMC member Evans speaks on Tuesday morning, and we have Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday, as well. More Fedspeak is in store for Wednesday, with FOMC member Quarles speaking, leading up to the GDP print on Thursday. Thursday also features US Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales. Finally, on Friday, we get the Core PCE Price Index which measures the price of services and goods (ex-food and energy) purchased by consumers (not businesses). This data release could warrant some attention due to the inflationary pressure that has been present in the markets as of late .Overall, it will be a moderate economic data release in the US. I always like to know what data will be coming out, and when, as a trading week begins.Correlations. Traders love them. They tell a story that really cannot be quantified unless studying the raw data. As we have had so much attention going to inflation lately, it is a good time to review the broader market S&P 500 vs. commodities to get an idea of the relationship between them.Figure 1 - SPX/SPGSCI TVC Monthly Candles November 1992 - May 2021. Source tradingview.comHere we have a long-term chart of the SPX (S&P500) divided by the SPGSCI (S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index). So, we have the ratio between the two instruments to inspect. We can see the large blowoff top price action that occurred in this ratio in Q1 2020 as a result of the pandemic (Crude trading negative, anyone?). There is a nice pullback from the blowoff top levels of the pandemic. The question becomes, is that the top or is it time to be long equities and short commodities? Friday’s PCE data could give us another clue. If buying pullbacks tickles one’s fancy in a contrarian fashion, this could be some food for thought.Figure 2 - SPX/SPGSCI TVC Daily Candles October 28, 2019 - May 21, 2021. Source tradingview.comDrilling down to the daily candles, we do see an interesting formation that could potentially indicate support of this trade between the 7.70-8.00 levels. The level has been key on the last three tries. Notice the horizontal price support and the MACD (12,26,9) starting to look bullish here. In addition, we have the RSI(14) crossing the 50 line.So, what does all of this mean? Trading ratios does require some knowledge and arithmetic. A trader would need to be long an identical X dollars worth of one instrument and short X dollars of the other to make it work. Do you have experience with this type of pairs trading?For now, let’s just explore the potential that the S&P 500 could be inexpensive compared to the commodity basket that the SPGSCI measures. Is one of them “cheap” or is the other “expensive”? Or both? Given the S&P 500 earnings multiple, money printing, and other policy directives from the new US administration, it may be simple to conclude that stocks are overpriced, and commodities will go up in a straight line. H owever, is trading really that easy? Bull markets, such as the one in the S&P 500, do not tend to go out in a whimper. Instead, they tend to go out with a bang.In the May 10th publication , we were examining the Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF (ERTH) given the US infrastructure bill, new administration, and other factors. Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s revisit ERTH , and see what the price action may be telling us, given recent market developments. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – DAX Surges To A New High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 25.05.2021 06:57
GER 30 jumps above previous highThe DAX 30 recoups last week’s losses as the EU sets to reopen its borders. The psychological level at 15000 has proven to be a solid demand zone.The rally above the intermediate resistance at 15400 acts as a confirmation of the bullish MA cross.By lifting offers around the previous peak at 15540 the index would break free of its recent consolidation range. Renewed interest from momentum buyers may send the market to new record highs.15350 is the first support in case of a retracement.XAUUSD trades in consolidationGold consolidates its gains as the US dollar index stays subdued at the start of the week.The rally gained momentum after it broke above the daily resistance at 1855.The latest sideways action has enabled the RSI to retreat into the neutrality area. This may attract more buyers without raising concerns of overextension.A bullish close above 1890 could swiftly lift resistance at 1900 and resume the rally to 1917. On the downside, 1853 is the closest support if the price action requires more bids.NZDJPY bounces off psychological supportThe New Zealand dollar saw support after retail sales showed a 2.5% increase in Q1. The pair is hovering above a major support (77.70) from the daily chart.The psychological level at 78.00 has seen strong buying interest after the bears’ failed to push lower on several occasions. The support-turned-resistance at 78.50 has so far capped the kiwi’s rebounds.A bullish breakout would send the price towards 79.00. An overbought RSI may signal a brief pullback for the bulls to gather momentum.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Rising Cost Pressure - What Will Mr. Powell and Mr. Gold Do?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.05.2021 15:53
The latest IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI signals very fast economic expansion – but also strong inflationary pressure. Good news for gold, overall.On Friday, the recent IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI has been published . There are two pieces of news for gold - one good and one bad. Let’s start with the negative information. The report signals an unprecedentedly fast expansion in business activity in May . Indeed, the composite index surge from 63.5 in April to 68.1 this month established a new record.More importantly, both manufacturing and services sectors’ markets have shown strong growth. The former index rose from 60.5 in April to 61.5 in May (also a new record), while the PMI for services soared from 64.7 to 70.1, marking the sharpest jump since data collection for the series began in October 2009. Such an unprecedentedly fast acceleration of growth in the PMI signals strong economic growth, which is clearly bad news for the safe-havens such as gold (however, strong economic growth is something everyone expected, so it might be already priced in as well).The good information is, however, that at least part of this growth is inflationary , as soaring demand greatly improved the firm’s pricing power. And the input costs have surged, leading to the sharpest rise in output charges since the end of the Great Recession when the data collection started:Increasing cost burdens continued to be keenly felt, as the rate of input price inflation soared to a new survey record high, often linked to a further marked worsening of supplier performance. Commonly noted were increases in PPE, fuel, metals and freight costs amid significant supplier delays.The steep rise in costs fed through to the sharpest increase in output charges since data collection began in October 2009, with record rates of inflation registered for both goods and services as soaring demand boosted firms’ pricing power.What’s more, wage inflation is also coming , as the report says that entrepreneurs couldn’t find people to fill the vacancies. It seems that generous benefits introduced in a response to the recession discouraged people from searching for work, and slack in the labor market is greatly exaggerated.Although a solid expansion in staffing levels eased some pressure on backlogs in the service sector, manufacturers registered the fastest rise in work-in-hand on record amid raw material shortages. While job creation was again seen in the goods-producing sector, the rise was the slowest for five months, linked in part to difficulties filling vacancies.In other words, the post-pandemic natural employment will be simply lower because of the institutional changes, not because of weak aggregate demand. How would you explain otherwise the fact that entrepreneurs cannot find workers amid employment lower by 8 million when compared to the pre-pandemic level?But this is good news for gold. The subdued employment would be a great excuse for the Fed to say that there is slack in the labor market, the aggregate demand is weak, and the economy remains fragile and below the Fed’s targets, so it still needs easy monetary conditions. Hence, Powell would stay passive and would even avoid starting to think about tapering the quantitative easing and hiking interest rates . Dovish Fed and rising prices would support gold prices.So, high inflation (see the chart below) should remain with us for a while . Indeed, manufacturers worry that raw material shortages “could extend through 2021” and producer price inflation translates into consumer price inflation with a certain lag. Anyway, high inflation won’t disappear in one or two months, but it could last for at least a few or even several months if the Fed remains ultra- dovish and people lose confidence in the central bank’s ability to maintain price stability.If this scenario happens, inflation expectations could cease to be “well-anchored” and inflation could get out of control, just as it did during stagflation in the 1970s. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, seems to agree with me in his comment on the report:The May survey also brings further concerns in relation to inflation, however, as the growth surge continued to result in ever-higher prices. Average selling prices for goods and services are both rising at unprecedented rates, which will feed through to higher consumer inflation in coming months.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI imply for gold? Well, strong economic activity is bad for gold, given that it usually shines during bad times. However, the yellow metal doesn’t like genuine, real growth, but it performs pretty well during inflationary periods . Of course, part of the growth comes from the reopening of the economies, but there is no doubt that this expansion is accompanied by high inflation.I’ve been warning readers since the very early part of the pandemic that the following expansion will be more inflationary than the previous one. This is excellent news for gold, which entered a bear market in 2011-2013 (i.e., when the former expansion settled down). What’s important here is that the economic environment is more inflationary (we have easier monetary and fiscal policies ) while at the same time the Fed is highly tolerant of high inflation – this is a truly dangerous cocktail, but it could be quite tasty for gold.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Option Traders Are a Bit Too Calm Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.05.2021 16:18
S&P 500 rose once again, and the slight retreat before the close isn‘t an issue in light of constructive credit markets. Tech, communications, industrials, value, real estate and financials rose while healthcare and notably utilities didn‘t play along. VIX has calmed down yet again, but the put/call ratio scored bullish complacency readings not seen for months. The boat is increasingly getting tilted towards the bullish side - but open long profits can keep growing.Credit markets though aren‘t flashing warnings signs – be that corporate bonds, Treasuries of various maturities, or different Treasury spreads such as the 10 to 2 year one. It‘s just the dollar that is tanking here on the Fed telegraphing taper vs. the market continued bet that it‘s still bluffing, for now:(…) Stocks, bonds and currencies aren‘t reacting much – it‘s only commodities that are in consolidation mode, but this can be chalked down to inflation expectations calming down over the prior three trading days. Until the Fed truly moves or makes its forward guidance as unequivocal as can be in this respect, the markets would be in a doubting attitude (or at a minimum, a wait and see one).The S&P 500 is firing on both cylinders at the moment, with technology jumping higher off very oversold levels, and $NYFANG not lagging too noticeably behind. Nasdaq is well bid at the moment, and it remains to be seen how value takes to retreating yields in the still ruling reopening trades atmosphere.Gold and miners aren‘t flashing warning signs, and the silver outperformance isn‘t a call to the exit door. The charts and macroeconomics speak in favor of continued bullish consolidation before a spurt higher in all three assets. And as the Fed isn‘t perceived in the least as about to get tough(er) (whatever that means, cynics would say), the path of least resistance remains up as the copper to 10-year yield ratio confirms. No, not too much cream has come off in commodities. Open gold profits can keep growing at their own pace but I wouldn‘t be surprised by a brief setback first either..Crude oil bulls have proved themselves on the Iranian (no) sanction news, and the oil index ($XOI) remains overall constructive, but favoring a little pullback in black gold first. The downswing attempt I wrote about yesterday, is increasingly unlikely now while the upside potential got greatly exhausted. Time to wait for another mispricing – one that would offer corrections to join the budding trend.Bitcoin and Ethereum still remain vulnerable as the prior buying fizzled out without taking on the upper border of the $38,000 - $40,000 zone that would let the bulls start turning the tide. It hadn‘t happened yet, and the retracement of yesterday‘s upswing is reaching a bit too far for both Bitcoin ($37,000) and Ethereum ($2,435) – the lookout remains tense.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 path of least resistance still looks to be up, and Nasdaq 100 definitely feels like joining (black line). The tired chart look still favors some consolidation first, though.Credit MarketsThe debt markets, whether corporate or Treasury ones, favor the stock market upswing to continue. The sentiment is turning back to risk-on.Technology and ValueTech driven by both riskier segments and $NYFANG is equally participating as value is in the S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersGold sector keeps cooling off, unchallenged on the downside. Nominal yields posture remains positive.Silver offers a little roller coaster ride, but the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio is still in quite fine shape, and real rates aren‘t biting.Bitcoin and EthereumThe tug of war is at a precarious stage – how much of yesterday‘s gains would be erased today? The bulls don‘t seem to be out of the woods yet.SummaryS&P 500 faces little immediate danger of plunging lower – we are about to have a likely uneventful session today.Gold and miners aren‘t however remotely seriously challenged by the bears, and consolidation before another upswing (also in silver) seems most probable.Crude oil has reached the top of its recent range, expecially when the oil sector is considered.Bitcoin and Ethereum still remain at crossroads, but the coming upper or lower knot‘s prominence, would be telling.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Eerily Serene Risk-off Markets

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.05.2021 15:29
S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds recovered the intraday downside but value sold off all the way to the closing bell. Well, rising yields used to add to tech‘s problems since mid Feb, and retreating yields don‘t breathe enough life into the sector now. It‘s clearly visible that the high beta segments are facing the yields‘ headwinds while $NYFANG is in the black, but more than a little lagging.The Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a good few weeks, is here. While it works to lift tech and hamper value, the days of value doing fine are far from over as the VTV:QQQ ratio illustrates:(…) We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. ... Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).Emerging markets are welcoming the dollar woes and yields reprieve, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t too much of a drag either. VIX refused further downside yesterday, and is hedging off bets as much as the option players do – no change in prior trends here, just a move away from the complacent end of the spectrum. The stock bull run is still about dips being bought.The key move is in the debt markets, and concerns inflation (expectations). For now, it appears that the Fed trial baloons (Kaplan, even Yellen – thinking about talking taper, suggesting rate hikes) have worked in dialing back the inflation trades to a degree (stock market correction isn‘t thus necessary for players to pile into Treasuries) – more about the Fed‘s „coming soon“ taper bluff:(…) The market simply isn‘t convinced the Fed is serious about taking on inflation through (gradual) removal of the punch bowl – or about shaping its forward guidance credibly this way (yet). Inflation expectations are cooling down a little, and the Treasury market is tracking them closely. But this doesn‘t mean that bonds are taking the central bank seriously – this move is part and parcel of the transitory vs. getting (practically permanently unless a Fed game changer arrives – still unlikely) elevated inflation readings debate.While I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.The much awaited Jun 10 CPI readings would likely come on the hotter side of the spectrum, but would be part and parcel of a continued move to a higher inflation environment where commodities‘ pressures are amplified by job market ones – not that the distortions and disincentives to work wouldn‘t be there.Gold and silver are set to benefit, either way you look at it. Be it through the Fed or market‘s perceptions of the Fed (i.e. buying into its bluff), nominal rates are retreating while real rates remain very constructive for continued precious metals run. The only short-term warning sign comes from miners that aren‘t surging higher. Open gold and silver profits can keep growing at their own pace but I wouldn‘t be surprised by a brief setback first either:(…) The charts and macroeconomics speak in favor of continued bullish consolidation before a spurt higher in all three assets. And as the Fed isn‘t perceived in the least as about to get tough(er) (whatever that means, cynics would say), the path of least resistance remains up as the copper to 10-year yield ratio confirms. No, not too much cream has come off in commodities. Crude oil traded with little volatility yesterday, but the bulls are a little short-term exposed as the oil index ($XOI) shows. Downswing attempt, however modest, shouldn‘t be surprising.Bitcoin and Ethereum are recovering in fits and starts, and the picture is turning bullish especially for the latter. With Bitcoin, the upper border of the $38,000 - $40,000 zone hasn‘t been cleared yet, but the signs from both Ethereum and Cardano are bullish already. It surely seems the market doesn‘t want to crash some more right now as the rally hasn‘t run out of steam yet.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 wavered a little yesterday, with signs pointing to more significant overnight deterioration not materializing. Nasdaq 100 is likewise probably going to consolidate its gains next – unless the value trade kicks in again, disregarding the yields‘ growing calm.Credit MarketsThe debt markets recovery is on, and I am looking at high yield corporate bonds for clues as to the S&P 500 upswing veracity.Technology and ValueTech was driven just by $NYFANG yesterday, pointing to the strong risk-off nature of yesterday‘s session.Inflation ExpectationsBond yields and inflation expectations are turning down relatively sharply, continuing to track each other closely. It certainly looks like we‘re in for a calm summer (my prior words).Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver rising while miners keep lagging behind, isn‘t a truly bullish sign. Wait and see is the right course of action as there hasn‘t been any reversal (let alone attempt at it), protecting sizable open profits.The weekly perspective offers mixed view of miners to gold ratio‘s breather while the copper to 10-year yield isn‘t budging – yet (see above what I wrote about taking the cream off commodities).Crude OilBlack gold is a little extended here, and consolidation of recent sharp gains is the most likely outcome, the oil index says so too.SummaryYesterday‘s S&P 500 posture deterioration is likely to remain temporary unless the credit markets move down, taking Nasdaq 100 with them. Muddle through seems most likely for today.Gold and silver upswing would be on sounder footing when the miners decide to join, and do away with the stark non-confirmation.Crude oil has reached the top of its recent range, expecially when the oil sector is considered – an opportunity after readjustment to no Iranian sanction news, is in the making.Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to continue their recovery, overcoming the key resistance zone in the first, and reasserting upside momentum in the latter (the overnight price action has been very positive).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

US Economic Data Prints Softly, US Dollar Mostly Flat

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.05.2021 16:22
US economic data disappointed yesterday. The SPX remained largely unaffected as the dollar remained quiet. Does this remind you of anything?When a market is in Goldilocks mode, the “data doesn’t matter”. However, is the current landscape very Goldilocks-like? There seems to be lingering uncertainty behind the curtain that would not lend itself well to such a scenario.Yesterday’s US CB Consumer Confidence data showed some weakness, missing market expectations of a 119.2 print, and coming out at 117.2. It is not the worst miss in the world, and I don’t think it surprised many US-based market participants. This data release is a medium impact announcement historically and does not pack the punch of a Non-Farm Payroll number. But, it is still a weak print keeping in mind that the previous month’s release was revised downward, from 121.7 to 117.5. It seems that the shine from the US reopening trade may be fading.Figure 1 - CB Consumer Confidence Monthly Releases March 2019 - May 2021. Source investing.comNo doubt rising inflation has US consumers a bit more cautious with their dollars these days.On the same day, market participants heard from the Census Bureau with the latest new home sales data. Another bearish print here, with a print of 863K vs. market expectations of 950K. If you are in the US and live in a hot market, this data may come as a surprise. New Home Sales is also not the heaviest market impact release out there, but I have always paid attention to it. When New Home Sales slow, the trickle effects are real in several industries, including furniture, mortgages, and appliances. Some local real estate markets are so overheated, that one would think that reality has to set in at some point soon. Is this just a temporary blip?Figure 2 - United States New Home Sales May 2020 - May 2021. Source tradingeconomics.comInterestingly enough, these soft prints had little impact on the US Dollar. Usually (and I use the word usually in a liberal sense here), bearish US economic data will send the US dollar lower. The dollar actually bounced intraday off these data releases, which could be a clue that traders may be covering some hefty short dollar positions. The data releases create liquidity, and traders with large positions need liquidity to get out of the other side of such a trade. Just a theory, folks.I suggest reviewing our publication from May 19th here , which outlines some key technical levels in the US Dollar Index that we are currently monitoring. The DXY is trading very close to a key level.Figure 3 - US Dollar Index 15 Minute Candles May 25, 2021 - May 26, 2021. Source tradingview.comAs we can see above, the DXY did not get sold on the bearish data releases. The data came out at 10 AM ET yesterday. In fact, it popped intraday and then slid off its highs, rebounding as the European session approached on May 26th. Interesting, right?When data releases are bearish, and the impacted markets do not necessarily trade in the consensus direction, it takes me back to a time in 2007 - 2008. Data seemed to pour in on the bearish side, yet the equity markets just went up, up, up. More on that soon.Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s review the markets that we are following. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Stock Market Cycles Tipping The Balance From Euphoria To Complacency - Is Gold Setting Up For A Rally Above $2000 Again?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 27.05.2021 01:28
Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently.  This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs.  This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.Recently, my team and I published a series of articles related to these longer-term cycle phases and how they related to the current market trends.  The biggest concept we want to highlight is that we've transitioned away from an Appreciation cycle phase and into the early stages of a Depreciation cycle phase.  Often, near this type of transition, the global markets experience a unique type of Excess Phase Peak.  This type of price pattern happens because traders/investors are slower to identify the end of a trend and often attempt to continue the Thrill/Euphoric phase of the previous market trend – until the markets prove them wrong.You can review some of our most recent research posts about these topics here: US Dollar Breaks Below 90 - Continue To Confirm Depreciation Cycle Phase (May 23, 2021); Bitcoin Completes Phase #3 Of Excess Phase Top Pattern - What Next? (May 20, 2021) and; What To Expect - A Critical Breakout Warning For Gold, Silver & Miners Explained (May 18, 2021).Stock Market CyclesThe custom graphic shown below highlights the phases of typical market trends through various stages of market trends.  My team and I believe we have crossed the peak level (or are very near to that crossover point) and have begun to move into the Complacency and Anxiety phases of the market trend.  As suggested, above,  the psychological process for traders/investors at this stage is to hope and plan for the never-ending bullish price trend while the reality of the market trend suggests a transition has already started taking place and the market phase has shifted.Our research suggests the last Appreciation phase in the market took place from mid/late 2010 to mid/late 2019.  That means we started a transition into a Depreciation cycle phase very near to the beginning of 2020.  Our belief that a moderate price rotation is pending within the markets stems from the excess phase rally that took place after the COVID-19 virus event.  We've witnessed the sideways price trend in precious metals over the past 8+ months which suggested that global traders were confident an economic recovery would take place (eventually).  Yet, the question before everyone is, as we move away from an Appreciation cycle phase and into a Depreciation cycle phase, what will that recovery look like?  Can we expect the recovery to be similar to levels seen in the previous Appreciation cycle phase?  Let's take a look at how these phases translated into trends in the past.Appreciation and Depreciation Cycle PhasesThe first Depreciation cycle phase (1983~1992) took place after an extended deflationary period where the debt to GDP was rather low comparatively. It also took place within a decade or so after the US moved away from the Gold Standard.  The strength in trending we saw in the US stock market was directly related to the decreasing interest rates and strong focus on credit/equities growth throughout that phase.The second Depreciation cycle phase (2001~2010) took place after the DOT COM rally prompted a huge boom cycle in equities and as a series of US/global events rocked the US economy.  First, the September 11, 2001 attack in New York, and second, by the engagement in the Iraq War.  Additionally, the US Fed was actively supporting the US economy after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which prompted many American's to focus on supporting a stronger US economy.  This, in turn, prompted a huge rally in the housing market as banks and policies supported a large speculative rally (FOMO) in Real Estate.The current Depreciation cycle phase (2019~2027+) comes at a time where the US Fed has been actively supporting the US/global economy for more than 11 years and after an incredible rally in Real Estate and the US stock market.  Additionally, a new technology, Crypto currencies, has taken off throughout the world as an alternate, decentralized, asset class – somewhat similar to how the DOT COM rally took off. As we've seen this incredible rally in global equities, Cryptos, commodities and other assets over the past 7+ years, we believe the last Appreciation cycle phase is transitioning into an Excess Phase Peak (see the Euphoria/Complacency phases above), which may lead to some incredibly volatile price trends in the future.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!You may be asking yourself, “how does this translate into precious metals cycles/trends?” after we've gone through such a longer-term past cycle phase review...The recent upside price trends in precious metals are indicative of two things; fear and demand.  First, the economic recovery and new technology are increasing demand for certain precious metals and rare earth elements (such as battery and other technology).  Second, the move in Gold and Silver recently is related to credit, debt, economic and cycle phase concerns.  As we've seen Bitcoin move dramatically lower and as we start to move into a sideways price trend in the US stock market, there is very real concern that the past price rally has reached an intermediate Excess Phase Peak.Please take a moment to learn about our BAN Trader Pro strategy and how it can help you identify stock market cycles, which phase we are in, and how that will lead us to trade better sector setups.  Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the BAN Trader Pro system trades.  You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.Have a great day!!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

You Should Never Trade Options If You Don’t Know This..

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 27.05.2021 12:50
Have you ever heard someone say “90% of people that trade options lose money.”? I certainly have. Looking at an options chain can be a dizzying exercise for the uninformed. Delta, Gamma, Theta, Rho, Vega - and let's not forget - implied volatility? Single, spread, butterfly, condor. What does it all mean? So what is an option from a high level view? At the end of the day, an options contract is just a derivative like any other stock, bond, ETF, or other tradable security based on an underlying asset. Most people will look at these other forms of derivatives and have an understanding of why the price fluctuates. For example, if a company posts a strong earnings report and the price of the stock goes up, it is easy to understand what is going on. In the case of options contracts, however, things do get a bit more complicated. Let’s break things down a little bit to start to get an idea of why many investors are afraid to trade options. Simple and Straight Forward Options BasicsThere are two forms of options contracts, Puts and Calls, and two things you can do with each type. For each of these, I can either buy or sell them. Buying a call option gives me the right to buy the underlying security at an agreed price or “strike” price. Selling a call option gives me the obligation to sell the underlying security at the strike price. On the other hand, buying a put option gives me the right to sell a stock at the strike price, while selling a put option obligates me to buy a stock at the strike price. Here is a diagram:Seems simple enough right? In fact, if you think about it, it might seem similar to your car insurance. You give your insurance company premiums every month, and they are obligated to cover you in the event of damage to your car. So in many ways, you are correct, it is like insurance. The price of an option is even called the “premium!” As you can imagine, the price of the premium would have a big impact on whether or not you decided to trade it. Taking insurance as an example, why would you want to pay $500 dollars per month to your insurance company if they only cover you up to $1000 in damage? Many beginners don’t understand what is really being exchanged in the options market and how the prices are calculated. How are options premiums calculated? This is where things get much more complicated and one of the most overlooked factors in options pricing is the current market volatility.The Price of an Option ExplainedIn simple terms, options prices are generally broken out into two different components: intrinsic and time value. These two values combined make up the option premium. The intrinsic value of a call option is calculated as the difference in the current price of the underlying security and the strike price of the option.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!For example, if I buy a call option with a strike price of 100 when the underlying is 100, the difference between the two numbers is 0, thus the call option has no intrinsic value. If the price of the underlying goes up to 105 dollars, my call option now has 5 dollars of intrinsic value. Put options are reversed - their intrinsic value is the difference between the price of the put option minus the price of the underlying security. Time value is calculated by taking the price of the option and subtracting the intrinsic value. This will tell you how much the option writer is compensated for taking on the obligation to buy or sell the underlying for the pre-determined amount of time. The price of an option is typically calculated using a few industry standard models. These models use historical data and many variables to calculate the price of an option including the current stock price, the strike price of the option, the risk-free rate and the option expiration. All of these variables are plugged into the mathematical models such as the Black-Scholes and ultimately a price is calculated.  This is typically where people get bogged down by the complexity. Each of these variables can make a big difference in the price of an option, and when looking at an options chain, most people simply don’t have the knowledge to make an educated decision about what sort of trade they should make. In reality, options can be used in so many different ways. They can be used to hedge, speculate, or make a profit all on their own. Having a basic understanding of the options market can help you enhance your existing positions and allow you to reduce your risk. Or you can trade options as their own individual positions which is what we teach and provide at Options Trading Signals. Once you have a complete understanding of options, the possibilities are endless. If you are just starting out on trading options and want to learn more about the different strategies, follow me on https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/ots/ and look out for more articles where we’ll take you step by step through real live options trades with members.
Hanging by a Proverbial Thread

Hanging by a Proverbial Thread

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.05.2021 15:34
S&P 500 in a tight range with bearish undertones in the credit markets – but where is the decline? Given the ample Fed support, don‘t count on too much unless the 4,180s zone gives in yet again. Highly unlikely according to the VIX, and even option traders have turned more complacent again. The S&P 500 may be in a precarious balance all it wants, but will gladly take any bullish clue (hello, unemployment claims) – unless the markets lose the faith in the Fed, the bulls are quite safe:(…) For now, it appears that the Fed trial baloons (Kaplan, even Yellen – thinking about talking taper, suggesting rate hikes) have worked in dialing back the inflation trades to a degree (stock market correction isn‘t thus necessary for players to pile into Treasuries) – more about the Fed‘s „coming soon“ taper bluff.The market simply isn‘t convinced the Fed is serious about taking on inflation through (gradual) removal of the punch bowl – or about shaping its forward guidance credibly this way (yet). Inflation expectations are cooling down a little, and the Treasury market is tracking them closely. But this doesn‘t mean that bonds are taking the central bank seriously – this move is part and parcel of the transitory vs. getting (practically permanently unless a Fed game changer arrives – still unlikely) elevated inflation readings debate.The much awaited Jun 10 CPI readings would likely come on the hotter side of the spectrum, but would be part and parcel of a continued move to a higher inflation environment where commodities‘ pressures are amplified by job market ones – not that the distortions and disincentives to work wouldn‘t be there.While inflation expectations dipped a little yesterday, bond yields mostly refused to decline – that‘s a short-term phenomenon, a daily noise worth keeping an eye on, together with the performance of red hot commodities. Copper being in better shape, with sound fundamentals underlined by the speculative stockpiling, rose a little yesterday, but lumber lacking the longer-term advantage of timber confirming its advance, reversed to the downside. Commodities are for now a mixed bag in consolidation mode, but their secular bull market is unquestionable, and so far it‘s only the precious metals that are calling the Fed‘s taper bluff. All the excess liquidity has to find a home somewhere, and it‘s in the financial markets, driving up asset prices – with the pace of appreciation the only variable until Fed‘s true game changer arrives. Again, that‘s unlikely.Precious metals are behaving as if the inflation battle has been lost, with all that‘s going on being about managing perceptions only. And boy and girl, these are attended to finely – the Fed balance sheet keeps expanding but inflation is cascading through the PMI, PPI and CPI. The lull having arrived, would prove of fleeting shelf life as I am looking for the inflation fires to reignite in the autumn surely. Crude oil is refusing to budge much, and keeps (bullishly) consolidating near the upper end of its recent range, with the oil index not too visibly underperforming. Bitcoin and Ethereum are recovering in fits and starts, and have rejected overnight downside. That‘s encouraging, and the picture keeps turning bullish especially for the latter. With Bitcoin, the upper border of the $38,000 - $40,000 zone hasn‘t been cleared yet, but the signs from both Ethereum and Cardano are strong already. No matter the many hit jobs (another China miner one for ESG superficial consumption), unless punitive taxation of crypto profits and / or digital national currencies arrive, the market is safe from another takedown. In this light, the summer Fed report on cryptocurrencies could be insightful, but don‘t pin your hopes for great impact too high.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 took a daily breather unlike Nasdaq 100, but everything isn‘t fine below the surface.Credit MarketsThe struggling corporate credit markets epitomize the daily uncertainty. The long-dated Treasuries rise doesn‘t appear to be over, which would underpin especially Nasdaq 100.Technology and ValueTech was driven just by $NYFANG yesterday, pointing to the strong risk-off nature of yesterday‘s session – in spite of solid VTV performance. These two messages are non-congruent.Gold, Silver and MinersGold is short-term perched high, especially should nominal yields rise some more than they did yesterday. Coupled with the tamed inflation expectations of latest days, the yellow metal is short-term vulnerable.Silver is taking the copper to 10-year Treasury yield cue, and would be more volatile than gold in the near term.Bitcoin and EthereumEthereum is taking a daily breather while Bitcoin is working off its prior retreat. The pressure to go higher is slowly building.SummaryS&P 500 is likely to remain choppy with a general upward bias that only a clear break of 4,180 would invalidate, which is unlikely to happen though.Gold and silver upswing would be on sounder footing when the miners decide to join, and do away with the stark non-confirmation. Dips are still being bought.Crude oil offered a modest intraday downswing that tellingly didn‘t attract new sellers.Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to continue their recovery, but it won‘t happen in a clear line pointing one way.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Russell 2000 Closes Above 50-Day SMA. Reconstitution Play!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.05.2021 18:32
Do you have exposure to small-cap equities? How do the small-caps measure up versus the large-caps at this moment?There is always opportunity somewhere, and we do our best to find it. Not only in trading and business, but in life too. So, what can we find today in the markets?Yesterday, the Russell 2000 ($RUT) closed above its 50-day simple moving average, a welcome sign for small-cap bulls. The index has lagged behind its large-cap counterparts as of late and hasn’t closed above its 50-day moving average since May 7th.After taking the pulse of the markets and digesting the opinions of other participants, it can be challenging to get excited about an $SPX at 4200 and with a 44.58 P/E ratio (trailing twelve months). So, more aggressive swing traders tend to look elsewhere in the hunt for return.A quick note on the $SPX P/E ratio (ttm): Figure 1 - S&P 500 PE Ratio 1870 - 2021. Source multpl.comTalk about a long-term chart. Anyway, this does look like a potential head and shoulders setup here, although it looks like current levels have exceeded the neckline. Food for thought. At what point is the S&P 500 fundamentally overvalued?Let's get back to small caps.Figure 2 - IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF December 10, 2020 - May 26, 2021. Source stockcharts.comAbove, we see the close above the 50-day moving average, the MACD(12,26,9) fast/slow line cross approaching the zero line, and the RSI(14) crossing 50. This, my friends, is visual Mozart to me; a confluence of indicators . Of course, nothing works all of the time, but when multiple technicals can be stacked in your favor, a distinct advantage can be created.Wednesday’s settlements had the SPY up 0.20% on the day, the DIA up 0.03%, the QQQ up 0.35%, and the IWM up 1.87%. A whopping change in tune from the recent large-cap money flow theme. It is certainly worth noting and perhaps utilizing for adjustment and/or speculation.Why Were the Small-caps Up So Much Comparatively on Wednesday?One thing to know is that the Russell indices are reconstituted yearly in June. This reconstitution is designed to remove underperforming stocks from the index and add new stocks to the index. The goal is to have and maintain a more accurate representation. This process begins on June 4, 2021, and ends with the reconstituted index ready on June 25. The new index components take effect after the market closes on June 25, which would be for Monday’s open on June 28.Isn’t this a valuable nugget?Another viable way to play the Russell reconstitution would be to pair it with another index ETF like SPY . If you are overall bearish on the market, this could be a great way to reduce risk, and still participate in the “Russell reconstitution trade” .Take a look:Figure 3 - IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF / SPY S&P 500 ETF Ratio August 27, 2020 - May 26, 2021. Source stockcharts.comThis chart is the IWM divided by the SPY . The IWM to SPY ratio. You can see that the small-cap index had fallen out of favor versus the large-cap index from March until now. Again here, we see the MACD looking to tilt bullish and the RSI(14) looking to bullishly cross the 50 line.So, this can be a way to take advantage of the Russell Index reconstitution even if you are bearish. This can be achieved by buying IWM and selling SPY , on a dollar-for-dollar basis. It is a way to look for one index to outpace the other (or not decrease as much as the other). Got it?Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s examine some strategy ideas that surround the Russell 2000 reconstitution and review the other markets and key levels that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian ContributorSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – USDJPY Confirms Bullish Reversal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.05.2021 07:31
USDJPY breaks above critical resistanceThe US dollar rallies on solid growth and jobless claims data. The pair has found bids in the daily demand zone between 108.30 and 108.60. Repeated tests of the support without breach have suggested strong interest in keeping the price afloat.The latest impetus above 109.70, the upper band of a three-week-long consolidation range, reverses the gear in favor of the dollar.110.50 then the psychological level of 111.00 would be the next target.In the meantime, an overbought RSI may initiate a brief pullback towards 109.00.XAGUSD bounces off rising trendlineJitters in US Treasury yields put a cap on bullions’ advance. Silver has been grinding up along a rising trendline since late March.The breakout above 28.30 has put the psychological level of 30 in buyers’ line of sight. This is an indication that the bulls are still in charge.A rally back above 28.20 would bring in momentum and turn what looks like a short-term recovery into the continuation of the medium-term uptrend.As the price tests the trendline (27.50), a neural RSI may attract more bids.UK 100 consolidates in pennantThe FTSE remains subdued after the number of Covid cases in the UK broke above 3,000 for the first time in over six weeks.The index is trading in a narrowing range between 6980 and 7075. This is a sign of the market’s indecision intraday. A break above the pennant would boost momentum and lead the price to 7160, eventually turning into a bullish continuation.A bearish breakout, however, may trigger a cascade of sell-off to 6925 and then towards 6820 as buyers try to bail out.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Buy the Dip, Again?!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.05.2021 16:16
S&P 500 attempted a breakout, but retreated. Is that a reversal, or proof of more pressure building up? Much starker move in the high yield corporate bonds would speak in favor of a reversal, but only until the higher end of the debt markets is examined. Or the volume for that matter, as these would put the reversal hypothesis to rest.VIX continues turning lower, and option traders are getting the message – finally, the put/call ratio appears to be on a declining path, meaning that fewer market participants are expecting another shoe to drop. As if one fell in the first place, really. Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.One more proof why the stock market bears are at a disadvantage, comes from other indices, namely the Russell 2000 (look for value to benefit), and emerging markets. The magic of ample Fed support is making its way through the system, lifting prices in many asset classes amid still rampant speculation. It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.Gold is holding up strongly, and has been in little need of miners‘ support lately. Both are consolidating, readying for another push higher that would coincide with further retreat in long-dated Treasury yields – unless these are counterbalanced with the collapse of inflation trades. Once again, I am not looking for that to happen – soft patch, prolonged commodities consolidation yes, turn to deflation no. In such an environment, silver would have a tougher ride and be vulnerable to volatile swings defined by how the inflation, yields, expectations and Fed action bets play out.Crude oil isn‘t offering but token discounts to enter on the buyers‘ side, and remains reasonably well supported by the oil index price action. The lower daily volume isn‘t an issue – the daily chart remains bullish.Bitcoin and Ethereum went through a steep overnight correction, and they would enter the Memorial weekend stormy waters not exactly in a rising mode. While the sellers appear to be in control, odds are that Ethereum would turn around first, followed by Bitcoin moving with less veracity, but still – even later today. The daily indicators are likely to carve out a bullish divergence next. I‘ll discuss it more in the nearest upcoming analysis, which would be on Tuesday – enjoy your long weekend!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 OutlookS&P 500 daily hesitation goes on, for as long as Nasdaq 100 plays ball and carves out its own modest consolidation pattern.Credit MarketsDaily struggle in high yield corporate bonds needs to be read in the context of high open, and intrasession reallocation to the quality debt instruments. Unless we push lower in earnest, this is a storm in the tea cup for equities as the HYG:SHY ratio confirms.Technology and Value$NYFANG wasn‘t strong enough to drive tech yesterday, but the many sectors forming value such as financials or consumer discretionaries, performed solidly – and the industrials did smashing too. More market breadth is though what the S&P 500 needs.Gold, Silver and MinersGold very modestly declined even as the miners opened threateningly down. The temporary woes might not be over, but illustrate the yesterday mentioned limited scope for gold to decline.Supported by the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio, the precious metals sector stood the test yesterday, but we might be at the higher range of the ratio‘s range, which would send especially silver under pressure once the ratio‘s correction occurs.Crude OilCrude oil‘s slow march higher continues, and neither the oil index nor the volume signal weakness ahead today.SummaryS&P 500 is likely to remain choppy with a general upward bias that only a clear break of 4,180 would invalidate, which is unlikely to happen though – especially with the end of month window dressing.Gold and silver might see modest profit taking today, but the upswing remains on solid footing, awaiting the miners to join and lead again.Crude oil offered an even more modest intraday downswing than the day before – one that tellingly didn‘t attract new sellers.Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to refuse lower prices, but the only open question remains when that would happen – still before the Memorial weekend, or after.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Silver, time is on your side

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.05.2021 19:00
Daily Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Income producing:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 27th, 2021.We were again able to profit last week from lower trendline entry trades by taking half off after the initial price moves in our favor (see our quad exit strategy). We overall lightened up on our positions near options expiry (5), since a possible more significant retracement is likely. Our reentry projections are US$27.38 and US$26.41.From a daily trading perspective, we are now stepping away from aggressive short-term reloading. Think exits versus entries! The above daily chart shows that principle-based entry density should be in the establishment zone of a trend and not when the world wakes up to Silvers directional run.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Just getting started:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 27th, 2021.While it is sensible to get modest with aggressive trade frequency on daily timeframe, the weekly chart is still bullish. At the beginning of this year, a double top in price was firmly rejected, and prices were forced back into range. Over the last two months, Silver has advanced enormously from US$24 to US$28. Two weeks ago, we had a failed breakout through a significant resistance trendline. This week prices managed to trade above what was previously resistance and has now become support. No need to cash in the chips just now! We see a bullish consensus confirmed.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Persistent strength:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 27th, 2021.Trustworthy guidance needs to be taken by the more significant player participation represented on the larger time frame charts. A look at the monthly chart shows volume supported buying. We can also see a strong supply zone below actual trading prices based on our fractional volume analysis at US$26.68 (yellow line). With this much focus on the precious metal sector and Gold coming to the forefront, we see Silver to rise into a stellar future in tech mid- to longer-term.Silver, time is on your side:We use a hybrid model of income-producing trading and long-term investing. We take partially initial profits quickly to mitigate risk. And we leave small portions of each winning trade exposed to the market and do not trail stops. Why no stops? The further one stretches a rubber band, the more extreme it snaps back. As such, in principle, trailing stops are a flawed methodology to protect profits. By taking partial profits early instead but leaving remainder positions exposed with only a break-even stop, the likelihood is that these runners survive significant retracements and end up in a trending environment to outpace any other profit-taking methodology. Result:” If you catch a long-term trend, the rewards are enormous.” In the case of Silver, this long-term trend has a very high probability. With the intent of wealth preservation and long-term investments, we find the Quad exit strategy contrarian to “hodling”, Martingale strategies, pyramiding, and any other high-risk approach the one to surpass typical expectations.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 27th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – USDJPY Looks For Buying Interest

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.06.2021 10:20
USDJPY retraces in search of supportThe US dollar’s rally ran out of steam for lack of liquidity during the long weekend in the US and the UK.Traders are cautious in bidding up amid thin trading volume especially after last week’s surge above the psychological level of 110.00. The RSI is retreating into the neutrality area. The bearish MA cross may attract some selling interest in the near term.The zone between 109.00 and 109.30, a former resistance, would be a key support to watch for. The peak at 110.20 is the resistance in case of rebound.XAUUSD breaks out of horizontal consolidationGold stays on high ground following a retreat in Treasury yields at the end of last week. The precious metal is consolidating its gains after the previous round of rallies.The general direction remains upward despite a choppy path. A bullish breakout above 1911.00 after a brief pause suggests strong buying interest.1900.50 is the immediate support as buyers build up their stakes. 1927.50 would be the next target. Then an extended rally may send the price back to January’s peak at 1959.00.US 30 recovers towards peakUS stock markets remain well-supported by recovery momentum into the summer. The Dow Jones index is still rising steadily towards the previous high at 35100.The rally above the supply zone around 34500 suggests that the bulls were willing to pay up to reverse the sell-off. A break above the intermediate resistance at 34700 could increase the bullish momentum.As the price achieves a series of higher highs again, an overbought RSI may briefly temper the bullish fever. 34220 is the closest support.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Bitcoin, change of mind required

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.06.2021 14:47
Too many players try to make the markets fit into their cookie-cutter technical analysis beliefs versus looking at the specific trading vehicles’ intricacies. While chart patterns could be blindly traded for the more significant part of the last century, many edges have dissipated. It is critical to accept that certain edges work for some time and then vanish. With the rapid changes of Bitcoin´s main trading and investing groups, a frequent change of mind is necessary. Only then will you be able to profit from Bitcoin’s stellar rise.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Directional trendlines work:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 31st, 2021.When back testing which elements of technical analysis are valid, it is essential to pin the findings to their specific time frames.The above daily chart shows that directional trend-lines for entries and stops are suitable.While typical, a top-down approach is essential, in this case, the daily time frame supersedes importance. It holds significance for shorter-term trades as setups and is an entry time frame tool for larger time frame players. Clearly an excellent time frame to start one’s investigations.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, High volume transactions as support and resistance:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 31st, 2021. bBitcoin eludes old-school technical analysis suggesting to draw horizontal support and resistance lines. Mainly due to the degree of volatility inherent from Bitcoin, amongst other factors.What suits this trading vehicle very well, though, is transactional volume-based supply and demand zones. As the daily chart above shows clearly, Bitcoin abides high volume nodes pointed out by the fractional volume analysis diagram to the right side where high transaction volume points are represented through horizontal white lines. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, First signs of life:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 31st, 2021. cLooking at last week’s chartbook publication, we find that prices have adhered to our expectations. After the double bottom near US$32,000 at the time, prices now moved upwards and touched precisely our upper bound sideways channel line marked in yellow near the US$41,000 price mark. An excellent point to take partial profits for those who established early entries. This represents roughly a US$9,000 advance or a 28% move).Since then, the price has declined to its high-volume node supply zone near US$34,000. There we took low-risk entries in the hopes of further price advances. All trades are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel.We eliminated risk out of all entries by taking 50% of position size out after initial price movements in our favor. Again, we will take some profits off the table once the upper range boundary is touched near US$41,000.Bitcoin, change of mind required:Even more important than knowing what works is knowing what doesn’t work. Classical chartists will find Bitcoin´s behavior on breakouts, upper directional trendlines in smaller time frames, and Fibonacci extension targets on larger time frames to be performing poorly, to name just a few.We follow the principle of “never assume.” Never assume just because it has worked for a hundred years that it still does. Instead, do your homework. Make sure to check what still provides an edge and what doesn’t. You will be amazed how much of classical technical analysis has vanished. Getting these kinks out of one’s stacking odds tools and instead replace with true odds of newly found edges will make all the difference between a performing system and a frustrating journey of consistent losses.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 31st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Your Week Ahead: PMI, Payrolls, Ranges, and Higher Volatility?

Your Week Ahead: PMI, Payrolls, Ranges, and Higher Volatility?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.06.2021 16:02
Thinking back to 2007 - 2008, I remember a time when the economic data just kept coming out rosy, even though I deeply suspected there was an underlying shoe to drop due to real estate and overlending. At the time, it seemed like every economic print was bullish, and the $SPX just kept climbing and climbing. It can be frustrating; when you may have the correct outlook, but just too early.This concept is one of the most important things a trader can recognize; his or her timing. The market will dictate when you are right, and your wallet will reflect the harsh reality of when you are wrong.With that being said, we turn our attention to the big data releases scheduled for June.The Big One : Traders are looking to the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, June 4th, at 8:30 AM ET. The market is expecting a gain of 645K - 670K here after last month's huge miss of 266K actual vs. 990K expected. Friday ought to be a doozy, with Fed Chair Powell speaking beginning at 7:00 AM ET and then the big jobs number.But before we get to Friday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is slated for release on Tuesday, June 1st, at 10:00 AM ET. This data will give market participants a view into business conditions, including employment, supplier deliveries, production, and more. This data release can be viewed as a precursor or clue to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll Data. Then there is ISM Services PMI on Thursday. It is a big week for economic data releases in the US, with the granddaddy of all of them on Friday.So, heading into the week, what is the S&P 500 telling us?Figure 1 - $SPX S&P 500 SPX November 6, 2020 - May 28, 2021 Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThere are several interesting things happening with the S&P 500. Coming out after a practically flat month of May (thanks to jobs data and inflation data), we see the MACD(12,26,9) throwing a bullish signal here, with the fast line crossing the slow line. RSI(14) is above 50, and we are currently trading well above the 50-day SMA of 4115.23.While it may not seem logical, most signs seem bullish at this time, after a month of sideways trading and consolidation . One could reason that the jobs data and inflation that has been gaining steam should hurt the index. However, wouldn’t inflation make stocks more expensive too? It is something to think about. We have to keep a pulse on the US Dollar Index for clues.What is happening in the $VIX ?Figure 2 - $VIX Volatility Index 2000 ETF February 21, 2019 - May 28, 2021 Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThere are no surprises here in the $VIX over the longer term. The massive spike caused by the pandemic has been steadily sold, with options sellers sucking up premiums akin to a vacuum cleaner. Although, there have been spikes along the way. Around the close on Friday, the $VIX caught my eye due to its close as the $SPX gave up around 10 handles between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM ET.Figure 2 - $VIX Volatility Index 2000 ETF March 29, 2021 - May 28, 2021 Hourly Candles Source tradingview.comThe hourly candles show $VIX down near its April lows and catching a nice hourly pop on Friday near the close. Friday was the last day of the month, so there could have been some book squaring and month-end activity that contributed to the pop. It was nothing outrageous, but this action coupled with being near the bottom end of the recent range caught my attention.There are some mixed signals for the S&P 500 at the moment.Since this week has so much data coming in, I would expect volatility to get bid up and options to become more expensive due to higher implied volatility. Given the flat month of May in the $SPX , I would view it as an overall bullish continuation pattern when factoring in the daily technicals. However, at the same time, the $VIX is near its lower end of the range.Therefore, I am prepared for sideways trading in a wide range in the $SPX until the market gets a read on the NFP data.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's further review the $SPX and the other markets and key levels that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

No More Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.06.2021 16:06
S&P 500 again rejected within sight of ATHs – again, but not totally convincingly. Especially the credit markets‘ mixed picture leans in effect slightly bullish, yet for the 500-strong index, the source of short-term worry would likely be the tech sector again. Either not pulling ahead as strongly, or taking a breather, which should be more noticeable in XLK than in Nasdaq 100.VIX looks to be done declining, and the option traders have hedged their Thursday‘s bets. Given the wavering risk-on segment of the credit markets, it‘s probably justifiably enough. Inflation expectations rose a little though, faster than the Treasury yields moved, which could be taken as a sign of value likely to do overall fine next – and that‘s also confirmed by smallcaps and emerging markets. As I wrote on Friday:(…) Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.In other words, I am not buying into the taper smoke and mirrors. The Fed knows that it can‘t (seriously) take away the support – it can only talk that, and look what the market does next. It‘s a long journey of preparation, and I am not looking for the central bank to move any time soon:(…) soft patch, prolonged commodities consolidation yes, turn to deflation no. In such an environment, silver would have a tougher ride and be vulnerable to volatile swings defined by how the inflation, yields, expectations and Fed action bets play out.Gold upswing remains well supported by the little lagging miners, and the broader view shows just how little breathing space the bears have. Not enough hot air has left commodities while nominal yields look as likely to retreat further. Silver is similarly bullish as it shows no signs of overheating.Crude oil suffered a daily setback, not nearly enticing enough for the buyers – but the oil index doesn‘t favor more downside at the moment. The daily chart remains bullish, and the pressure to go higher is building up.Bitcoin and Ethereum entered into the long weekend on a weak note, but the buyers stepped in. Having convincingly defended the rising support line, carved out a bullish divergence, and the initiative has moved to the bulls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 daily reversal that may or may not be threatening – and in my opinion, it isn‘t. Nasdaq 100 closed higher on the day, signifying that the risk-off shouldn‘t be overrated.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds are in no mood to steeply decline, and attest to a risk-off whiff merely. As I am looking for TLT to turn up shortly, HYG wouldn‘t likely suffer too much.Technology and ValueSimilarly, the tech downswing shouldn‘t be taken at face value – $NYFANG did fine but value did even better. More market breadth is though what the S&P 500 needs.Gold, Silver and MinersGold rejected yet another downswing attempt, and so did the miners. The chart remains bullish, and the path of least resistance higher.The copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio remains on fire, amply supporting the precious metals sector – and as silver isn‘t taking the copper cue in full exactly, the appreciation potential is especially juicy.Bitcoin and EthereumThe long weekend volatility was resolved at the rising black support line, and Ethereum trades now at $2,550 with Bitcoin changing hands for $36,100. The path taken to conquer the red resistance will be insightful, and the below ratio is tipping the scales in the bulls‘ favor.A lot of upside pressure building in the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio, with the weekend attempt at the lows revealing the turning tide. SummaryS&P 500 is upside bias remains unchanged in spite of Friday‘s woes. Any dip would likely be temporary.Gold and silver remain primed to go higher, as much as the miners. The upleg is very far from over, and the only watchout is for the white metal not to get caught in the commodities consolidation trade.Crude oil downswing came on cue, but the bulls might not have gotten a discount steep enough to join, solid oil index performance notwithstanding. At the same time, the largely sideways consolidation is taking a bit too long already.Bitcoin and Ethereum have turned, but expect still volatile trading ahead, albeit with a bullish flavor.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Major Indexes Consolidate Into Sideways/Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 01.06.2021 16:14
Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel.  This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we've seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021.  My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors. When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.After Many Weeks Of Sideways Price Trending – What's Next?The Weekly SPY chart, below, highlights the seven weeks of moderate sideways price activity and shows the extended resistance level (MAGENTA Line) which represents an almost extreme rally trend originating from the 2009~2011 initial price bottom/rally after the housing/credit crisis. My research team and I are cautious of how the SPY has rallied recently, targeting the prior MAGENTA Line trend level and then dramatically stalled after briefly touching this level.Long Term SPY Chart Highlights Incredible Price - “Fuzzy Double Top” From 2009 Bottom LevelsThe following Monthly SPY chart shows you the bigger picture.  As the bottom setup in 2009-2010, price rallied sharply and set up an upward sloping price channel off these highs. Usually, as prices move away from the bottom, a sharp recovery may take place initially after the bottom completes.  This initial upward price trend often represents some of the strongest upward price momentum one will see as the bullish trend continues to unfold.  It is very unusual for price to rally very strongly after a deep price bottom, then move into weaker bullish trending, then begin to accelerate into a very aggressive upward price trend targeting or reaching the initial bullish momentum after the initial deep bottom level. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!This is exactly what happened in this case with the SPY.  Price rallied off the bottom, began to stall in a bullish trend while still moving higher, then after COVID-19 began to rally excessively back to the original MAGENTA upward sloping price channel.  This type of price activity is very unusual and typically relates to a hyper-parabolic price trend.Transportation Index Forming Tight Price Flag – Which Way Will It Break?This Weekly Transportation Index highlights the Flagging price formation that has recently set up.  Although one could argue the current trend is still very bullish overall, the recent sideways price formation suggests the momentum behind the recent bullish price trend has weakened.  We have drawn both bullish and bearish arrows on this chart to illustrate that the Apex of the Flag formation may prompt some type of wild, volatile price activity.  This Apex has nearly completed as of last week.  It is very likely that a more volatile price trend will begin over the next few weeks and we believe this could be the beginning of a bigger price trend lasting through August or September 2021.If the trend resumes as a bullish price trend, then we may continue to see a melt-up in price targeting the $16,500 level (or higher).  If the trend breaks lower, then we believe the Transportation Index may attempt to move below the $14,000 level and possibly attempt to retest the early 2021 lows near $12,000.Custom Volatility Index Confirms Bigger, Aggressive Price Trends/Breakouts Are PendingLastly, we want to highlight our Custom Volatility Index Weekly chart – which we use to measure and gauge market peaking and bottoming setups as well as overall trend direction and momentum.  When the Custom Volatility Index moves above 12~13, it is nearing an extreme bullish trend phase (or potentially nearing a peak price level where bullish momentum may stall).  When the Custom Volatility Index moves below the 9~10 level after reaching the 12~13+ level, we are experiencing a moderate price pullback (usually).  When the Custom Volatility Index falls below the 9~10 level, this suggests the markets are breaking major support channels and falling into a new type of Bearish trending (possibly attempting to target the 3~5 level – or lower).Currently, the Custom Volatility Index has reached levels above 14 on April 12, 2021.  That is the origination of this recent stalling in the Weekly SPY chart (near the top of this article).  The current sideways price action in the SPY after April 12 was illustrated in the Custom Volatility Index as the large candlestick bars rotating near the 10~11 level.  This period represents a fairly large range price volatility period where prices have stalled.Now, the Custom Volatility Index is back above 13.50 and reached a high of 14.33.  This move higher suggests the markets are back into bullish exhaustion/peaking range while the SPY and Transportation Index are still suggesting a sideways price Flag formation is Apexing.  We expect some very volatile price action to pick up throughout most of June 2021 which may prompt a new major price trend in the US Major Indexes because of this setup.As various assets seek out critical support and resistance levels in early June 2021, pay attention to how markets react near past critical stand-out lows and highs.  For example, The Transportation Index chart, above, highlights a “stand-out” low near $12,000 that is a likely downside price target if we see a breakdown trend in early June.  These past stand-out price levels often represent very important support and resistance levels for technical traders.Again, we are not making a prediction that a breakdown event is going to crash the markets right now.  We are suggesting that a price volatility event is about to happen in early June based on our research.  This volatility event may prompt a new major price trend if the event is big enough to break through historic support/resistance levels.  If not, then we may see a moderate 8 to 11% price rotation take place before the markets resume the bullish trending phase again.We are suggesting that traders prepare for this volatility event which appears to likely happen in early June 2021 and may last many weeks (through August or September 2021).  Only time will tell how this plays out, but we are fairly certain a spike in the VIX is near and that we may see a moderate downside move in the SPY – possibly below $400.  Many various sectors will likely rotate as well and set up excellent opportunities for active traders throughout this volatility event.For those of you who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers. Sign up today!Enjoy the rest of your Memorial Day Weekend!
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

USDX: Trick or Treat, Looks Like an Early Halloween

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.06.2021 16:24
The FED has recently been tricked with its own money. Could the central bank’s scary reverse repos become a treat for the USDX?The USD Index (USDX)With the ghosts of 2015 attempting to scare the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) into tapering its asset purchases, the latest reverse repo nightmare could be gold, silver and mining stocks version of the boogeyman. Case in point: with the liquidity fright helping the USD Index sleep better at night, the greenback should benefit from the FED’s latest house of horrors: And with the central bank’s daily reverse repos hitting an all-time high of $485 billion on May 27 (with another $479 billion sold on May 28), Halloween may come early this year.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the daily reverse repo transactions executed by the FED, while the red line above tracks the federal funds rate. If you focus your attention on the red line, you can see that after the $400 billion level was breached in December 2015, the FED’s rate-hike cycle began. Thus, with current inflation dwarfing 2015 levels and U.S. banks practically throwing cash at the FED, is this time really different?Likewise, with reduced liquidity poised to bolster the USD Index, not only are the fundamentals trending up but also the technicals. The USD Index jumped above its declining resistance line based on May’s highs, as well as the declining resistance line that started with the late-March high. This is important not only (and not primarily) because of the double-breakout. It’s important and particularly bullish, as it emphasizes that the third – and quite likely the final – short-term bottom in a row is already in.In addition, the USD Index might be in the early innings of forming an inverted head & shoulders pattern. For context, an inverted H&S pattern is a bullish development that if formed, could usher the USD Index well above 94.5 (to about 97-98). However, completing the right shoulder requires an upward breach of 93 (the blue line), so at this point, it’s more of an indication than a confirmation.Please see below:For more context, I wrote previously:This week’s move lower is a continuation, and most likely the final part, of a specific multi-bottom pattern that the USD Index exhibited recently.I marked those situations with green. The thing is that the U.S. currency first declined practically without any corrections , but at some point it started to move back and forth while making new lows. The third distinctive bottom was the final one. Interestingly, the continuous decline took place for about a month, and the back-and-forth declines took another month (approximately). In July 2020, the USDX fell like a rock, and in August it moved back and forth while still declining. In November 2020, the USDX fell like a rock (there was one exception), and in December it moved back and forth while still declining.Ever since the final days of March, we’ve seen the same thing all over again. The USD Index fell like a rock in April, and in May we’ve seen back-and-forth movement with lower lows and lower highs.What we see right now is the third of the distinctive lows that previously marked the end of the declines.And what did gold do when the USD Index rallied then?In August, gold topped without waiting for USD’s final bottom – which is natural, given how extremely overbought it was in the short term.In early January, gold topped (which was much more similar to the current situation given the preceding price action) when the USDX formed its third, final distinctive bottom.I received a few questions recently asking what would need to happen for me to change my mind on the precious metals sector’s outlook. There are multiple reasons, and it’s impossible to list all of them. However, one of the reasons that would make me strongly consider that the outlook has indeed changed (at least for the short term) would be a confirmed breakdown in the USD Index below the 2021 lows to which gold would actually react.As further evidence, the Euro Index might be in the midst of forming a bearish H&S pattern. If you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that the symmetrical pattern has the current rally mirroring the summer of 2020. And while we’re still in the early innings of forming the right shoulder, three peaks were recorded during the second half of 2020 before the Euro Index eventually rolled over. Likewise, with a symmetrical setup that seems to already be in motion, the Euro Index may be heading down a similar path of historical ruin. In the second half of 2020, the decline was not that big, but it’s no wonder that this was the case as that was only the left shoulder of the pattern. Completion of the right shoulder, however, would imply another move lower, at least equal to the size of the head – to about the June 2020 lows or lower.Gold and the EuroFurthermore, last week’s decline actually ushered the Euro Index back below the dashed resistance line of its monthly channel. And with its recent triple top mirroring the price action we witnessed in mid-to-late 2020 – before the Euro Index plunged – it won’t take long for confidence to turn into fear.Please see below:More importantly, though, the completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign, and if the Euro Index reverses, it could weigh heavily on the precious metals over the medium term.If that wasn’t enough, with the USD Index hopping in the time machine and setting the dial to 2016, a bullish pattern is slowly emerging. To explain, I wrote on May 11:While the self-similarity to 2018 in the USD Index is not as clear as it used to be (it did guide the USDX for many weeks, though), there is also another self-similar pattern that seems more applicable now. One of my subscribers noticed that and decided to share it with us (thanks, Maciej!).Here’s the quote, the chart, and my reply:“Thank you very much for your comprehensive daily Gold Trading Reports that I am gladly admitting I enjoy a lot. While I was analyzing recent USD performance, (DX) I have spotted one pattern that I would like to validate with you if you see any relevance of it. I have noticed the DX Index performing exactly in the same manner in a time frame between Jan. 1, 2021 and now as the one that started in May 2016 and continued towards Aug. 16. The interesting part is not only that the patterns are almost identical, but also their temporary peeks and bottoms are spotting in the same points. Additionally, 50 daily MA line is almost copied in. Also, 200 MA location versus 50 MA is almost identical too. If the patterns continue to copy themselves in the way they did during the last 4 months, we can expect USD to go sideways in May (and dropping to the area of 90,500 within the next 3 days) and then start growing in June… which in general would be in line with your analysis too.Please note the below indices comparison (the lower represents the period between May-Dec 2016 and higher Jan – May 2021). I am very much interested in your opinion.Thank you in advance.”And here’s what I wrote in reply:“Thanks, I think that’s an excellent observation! I read it only today (Monday), so I see that the bearish note for the immediate term was already realized more or less in tune with the self-similar pattern. The USDX moved a bit lower, but it doesn’t change that much. The key detail here would be that the USDX is unlikely to decline much lower, and instead, it’s likely to start a massive rally in the next several months - that would be in perfect tune with my other charts/points.I wouldn’t bet on the patterns being identical in the very near term, though, just like the late June 2016 and early March 2021 weren’t that similar.As soon as the USD Index rallies back above the rising support line, the analogy to 2016 will be quite clear once again –the implications will be even more bullish for the USDX and bearish for the precious metals market for the next several months.”Please note that back in 2016, there were several re-tests of the rising support line and tiny breakdowns below it before the USD Index rallied. Consequently, the current short-term move lower is not really concerning, and forecasting gold at much higher levels because of it might be misleading. I wouldn’t bet on the silver bullish forecast either. The white metal might outperform at the very end of the rally, but it has already done so recently on a very short-term basis, so we don’t have to see this signal. And given the current situation in the general stock market – which might have already topped – silver and mining stocks might not be able to show strength relative to gold at all.On top of that, the USD Index’s long-term breakout remains intact . And when analyzing from a bird’s-eye view, the greenback’s recent weakness is largely inconsequential.Please see below:Moreover, please note that the correlation between the USD Index and gold is now strongly negative (-0.90 over the last 30 days) and it’s been the case for several weeks now. The same thing happened in early January 2021 and in late July – August 2020; these were major tops in gold.The bottom line?After regaining its composure , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, ghouls, goblins and ghosts are popping up everywhere, and while the USD Index has been under investors’ negative spell, the curse may have just been broken. Moreover, with plenty of skeletons in the financial markets’ closet and liquidity slowly being drained from the system, the narrative of excessive money printing has become an old wives’ tale. More importantly, though, with the greenback finding technical support at roughly the same time, we could be witnessing a paradigm shift in U.S. dollar sentiment. The bottom line? With gold, silver and mining stocks benefiting from the USD Index’s recent struggles, a coven is gathering, and it will likely torch the precious metals over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Struggles To Clear Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.06.2021 07:14
AUDUSD returns to major supportThe Australian dollar stays muted after a dovish RBA kept the official interest rate unchanged overnight.Despite a rebound above the resistance at 0.7750 the pair is struggling to gain momentum. The supply zone around 0.7800 is a major hurdle that has foiled the Aussie’s previous attempts.The RSI has retreated into the neutral area and may allow buyers greater leeway in making another push.On the downside, the support (0.7680) on the daily chart is critical in keeping the price afloat in the short term.USDCAD meets resistanceThe Canadian dollar rallied on better-than-expected March GDP growth. The US dollar’s recent bounces have failed to clear the key resistance at 1.2140. An overbought RSI in that supply area was rather a signal to sell into strength.The selling pressure intensified after the price dipped to the psychological level of 1.2000. The bearish MA cross indicates a new round of sell-off which would carry the greenback towards May 2015’s low at 1.1920. Any rebound might be capped by the resistance at 1.2090.EURCHF gathers rebound impetusThe Swiss franc inched lower after the Q1 GDP came in worse than expected. From the daily chart’s perspective, the euro is in a flag-shaped consolidation following February’s surge. There is potential for continuation after a bullish breakout.The pair has seen solid support above 1.0930. The current retracement has allowed the RSI to cool down. A break above 1.1020 could bring in momentum.A combination of short-squeezing and fresh buying may extend the rally towards 1.1070.
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US Equities: Mixed Signals, Inflation, Waiting Game

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.06.2021 17:51
The June E Mini S&P 500 futures contract traded well early yesterday morning before the cash open. Cash traders, however, had different ideas when the opening bell rang in New York.The June E mini S&P 500 (ESM2021) traded as high as 4230.00 right at 9:31 AM yesterday (June 1) as cash trading began. Traders were waiting on the PMI data release at 10:00 AM. Sellers came into the market right at the cash open, selling it down to 4213.00 in the minutes leading up to the data print. The data signaled inflation once again, with the PMI data printing 62.1, above market expectations of 61.5, and above the last measure of 61.5. Inflation became a concern here. Will the Fed eventually raise their overnight Fed Funds Rate? Will yields rise? This data print created uncertainty in the market, and the ESM2021 settled around 4199.75 at 4:15 PM ET yesterday.This type of price action came as no surprise to me, as the prevailing macro theme of this week seems to revolve around Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data. As mentioned yesterday, I view this type of trading week as “sideways trading in a wide range in the $SPX until the market gets a read on the NFP data.” Let’s see how this plays out heading into Friday.The Cash $SPX settled almost flat, giving up 2.09 points (-0.05%) on the day. That’s what I would call sideways. The $VIX , however, tacked on 6.80%, furthering the potential of yesterday’s weekly outlook for volatility to get bid up this week, as the market waits for Friday’s jobs number. S&P 500 options implied volatilities got more expensive, with the uncertainty of Friday’s jobs number being a partial contributor.Figure 1 - June Emini S&P 500 Futures 7:30 AM June 1, 2021 - 6:46 PM June 1, 2021 One-Minute Candles Source tradingview.comA picture is worth a thousand words. In the above chart, we can see how the cash S&P 500 open was sold, and how the PMI print was sold.However, with muted trading expected this week in a range, this doesn’t seem too surprising. The $SPX closed flat on the day, and the $VIX caught a bump. So, what would be the expected ranges for Wednesday’s and Thursday’s session?We could actually consult the weekly options and determine the price range probabilities for the week, but that will include Friday trading data. Let’s just examine the recent ranges to get an idea for Wednesday and Thursday.Figure 2 - S&P 500 Index $SPX March 25, 2021 - June 1, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe can see that today’s high prints in the index (4234.12) at the US cash market open were getting close to the all-time high of 4238.04, set on May 7th. This level was denied and seems to lend some credibility to a rangebound market ahead of Friday’s NFP data.The 50-day SMA sits at 4121.01 and this coincides well with the lows of the range towards the end of April, near 4118.00 - 4125.00. These figures could give us a range to look for over the next couple of days. Could volatility strike before the data? It could, however, I would expect it to be short-lived and mild. Nobody knows for sure, but let’s look for a rangebound $SPX on Wednesday and Thursday.Figure 3 - Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund DBC April 1, 2021 - June 1, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWith inflation back in the spotlight yesterday, commodities rose overall, as can be seen in the above daily chart of DBC . In addition, there is news of the JBS Beef Plant Cyberattack that did not help with the inflationary theme. However, there is now news that the plans are coming back online.The daily candle that was formed here could be an abandoned baby bear or exhaustion gap; note the gap up with the open and close levels almost identical. We will have to see how commodities trade tomorrow to see if this new high holds.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's recap the markets and key levels that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. 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Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Forms Bearish Divergence

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.06.2021 07:45
GBPUSD retreats from major resistanceThe pound slips due to concerns over possible delays to June 21 lockdown lifting. The pair saw strong selling interest at the supply zone (1.4200) from last February. The RSI’s failure to achieve a higher high as opposed to the price action indicates exhaustion.Divergence near a key resistance could be a forward warning for a correction. The drop below 1.4160 is a confirmation of weak demand. A break below 1.4100 may send the pound to the psychological level of 1.4000.On the upside, the peak at 1.4250 has become resistance.GER 30 grinds towards new highThe DAX stays muted following Germany’s downbeat retail numbers in April. The index is looking to hold on to its recent gains after it broke into new highs.On the daily chart, the 20-day moving average crossing above the 30-day one suggests an acceleration in the rally after a month-long consolidation. 15800 would be the next target as trend followers rejoin the action.In the meantime, the latest surge has sent the RSI into the overbought area. A temporary pullback is likely to seek support above 15410.USOIL climbs to 3-month highOil rallies as markets expect delays in the Iran nuclear talks. WTI crude has rallied above the March peak at 67.90. This is an indication that buyers have regained control of the direction.The bulls have cleared the way to 70.00 even though the path could be choppy due to intraday volatility. The price is inching up along the 30-hour moving average. A high RSI may prevent traders from chasing after the momentum.Around 66.70 is a key area of congestion after it turned from resistance into support.
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Gold Seems Stuck at $1900. Are Inflationary Fears Exaggerated?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.06.2021 14:06
Gold is fluctuating around $1,900 amid a sideways trend in real interest rates and a decline in inflationary expectations.Gold surpassed $1,900 at the end of May. However, it has been struggling since then to rally decisively above this level. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has been oscillating around this level, as the chart below shows.Why is that and what does it mean for the gold market? Well, on the one hand, we could say that the yellow metal is in a normal pause during an uptrend. However, the lack of more aggressive price appreciation amid high inflation , ultra-loose monetary policy , depreciating dollar and super easy fiscal policy could be seen as disturbing.From a fundamental perspective, the timid price behavior of gold could be explained by a sideways trend in real interest rates . Their lackluster movement, in turn, could have resulted from the downward correction in long-term inflationary expectations (blue line), as the chart below shows.Investors’ inflation bets have lost some steam, starting a debate about whether expectations of inflation have already peaked. After all, it might be the case that inflation fears have been exaggerated and investors have overshot, as they often do. In addition, some of the FOMC members signaled that it could be a good idea to begin discussing tapering quantitative easing .If this was really the peak of inflationary expectations, the news would be bad for gold, which is seen as a hedge against inflation . However, many analysts expect that inflation expectations have room for further rises and could reach levels close to 3%.Implications for GoldWhat does all this mean for the price of gold? Well, market-based inflationary expectations have recently declined, dragging the real interest down and restraining gold from moving upward. However, inflation worries won’t disappear anytime soon . After all, the PCE inflation , the favorite Fed’s inflation gauge, jumped 3.1% in April, beating the expectations. Even in the Eurozone, where price pressure is usually lower than in the US, the inflation rate rose from 1.6% to 2% in May, which is the highest level since October 2018.Furthermore, consumer-based inflationary expectations jumped from 3.4% to 4.6% in May, so inflation worries are still around. They could increase the uncertainty and increase the safe-haven demand for gold . Although higher uncertainty could limit some spending, we should remember that households have accumulated more than $2 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic . So, inflation may be more lasting than many policymakers and pundits believe . If inflation doesn’t turn out to be merely transitory, gold could gain some fuel for the upward march.Higher inflation implies weakened purchasing power of the dollar. If we add America’s growing public debt problem to constantly rising prices, the downward trend in the greenback could continue, supporting the price of gold.Of course, only time will tell whether or not current inflation worries are justified. However, please note that the economy didn’t collapse last year due to a lack of liquidity but due to the Great Lockdown . The implication is that the Fed has increased money supply well above demand , injecting a lot of liquidity into the system. The expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet and commercial banks’ credit (after all, this time not only the monetary base has jumped, but the broad money supply as well), combined with the Great Unlocking, generated a great inflationary wave that lifted all asset classes: from commodities, through equities, to cryptocurrencies , including crypto-memes like Dogecoin.And it might be just a coincidence, but the Fed introduced a new monetary regime that is prone to higher inflation also during the last year. A cynical interpretation could be that the Fed knew very well that its last year’s monetary expansion could result in higher inflation.Hence, inflationary expectations didn’t have to peak, and they could increase later this year supporting gold prices . Having said that, if inflation really turns out to be only transitory, the current situation wouldn’t be much different from 2011-2013, when gold prices struggled amid expectations of monetary policy tightening . Of course, the Fed is even more dovish now under Powell than under Bernanke or Yellen , but higher inflation would be an additional argument for a bull market in gold .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Gold: First Steps Down in the Short Term

Gold: First Steps Down in the Short Term

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.06.2021 16:03
Gold rallying on low volume yesterday was a clear bearish sign; the yellow metal dropped about $15 in today’s pre-market trading. What will happen next?Yesterday’s (Jun. 2) and today’s sessions were quite rich in signals for gold, silver, and mining stocks, but only if one knows where to watch.Gold: Short-Term MovesGold closed ~$5 higher yesterday, and this move took place on relatively low volume. In fact, gold hasn’t rallied on volume this low since Apr. 26. This is a bearish sign for the short term, and indeed after the Apr. 26 session, gold moved lower in the following days.And, right on cue, gold was about $15 down in today’s pre-market trading . While this decline might seem surprising to some, it’s actually a perfectly natural thing for gold to do right now.The low-volume daily rally was only a confirmation, as we knew that Tuesday’s daily reversal was critical all along – based on the triangle-vertex-based reversal we recently saw. Combination of this with highly overbought RSI, a sell signal from the stochastic indicator, and, most importantly, the analogies to how the situation in gold developed in 2008 and 2012, provides us with an extremely bearish outlook for gold.Many other factors are pointing to these similarities, and two of them are the size of the correction relative to the preceding decline and to the previous rally. In 2012 and 2008, gold corrected to approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold was very close to this level this year, and since the history tends to rhyme more than it tends to repeat itself to the letter, it seems that the top might already be in.In both years, 2008 and 2012, there were three tops. Furthermore, the rallies that took gold to the second and third top were similar. In 2008, the rally preceding the third top was bigger than the rally preceding the second top. In 2012, they were more or less equal. I marked those rallies with blue lines in the above chart – the current situation is very much in between the above-mentioned situations. Also, the current rally is bigger than the one that ended in early January 2021 but not significantly so.Since I realize that it’s most difficult to stay on track right at the top, let me remind you about two key facts:We have open-ended QEs – money is being pumped into the system at an unprecedented pace, even when stocks are well beyond their all-time highs. The world has been in a pandemic for over a year, and the economies were hit hard. And yet, gold – the king of safe hedges – did not manage to soar above its 2011 highs and then stay above them. Given how extremely positive the fundamental situation is, gold’s reaction is even more extremely bearish. This market is simply not ready to soar without declining significantly first. The bull market and bear markets move in stages, and the final slide was postponed multiple times, but it’s clear that gold is not ready to soar to new highs without completing this final stage – the downswing.Remember what happened when gold previously attempted to break above major long-term highs? It was in 2008 and gold was breaking above its 1980 high. Gold wasn’t ready to truly continue its bull market without plunging first. This downswing was truly epic, especially in the case of silver and mining stocks; and now even gold’s price patterns are like what we saw in 2008.Lessons Learned From HistoryMy previous comments on the analogies to 2008 and 2012 remain up-to-date:Back in 2008, gold corrected to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , but it stopped rallying approximately when the USD Index started to rally, and the general stock market accelerated its decline.Taking into consideration that the general stock market has probably just topped, and the USD Index is about to rally, then gold is likely to slide for the final time in the following weeks/months. Both above-mentioned markets support this bearish scenario and so do the self-similar patterns in terms of gold price itself.What would change my mind with regard to gold itself? Perhaps if it broke above its January 2021 highs and confirmed this breakout. This would be an important technical indication on its own, but it would also be something very different from what happened in 2008 and 2012. If that happened along with strength in mining stocks, it would be very bullish. Still, if the above happened, and miners didn’t react at all or they declined, it would not be bullish despite the gains in the gold price itself.The March 2021 low formed well below the previous low, but as far as other things are concerned, the current situation is similar to what happened in 2012.The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended on huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year. Consequently , forecasting much higher silver or gold prices here doesn’t seem to be justified based on the historical analogies.The thing I would like to emphasize here is that gold didn’t form the final top at the huge-volume reversal on Sep. 13, 2012. It moved back and forth for a while and moved a bit above that high-volume top, and only then the final top took place (in early October 2012).The same happened in September and in October 2008. Gold reversed on huge volume in mid-September, and it was approximately the end of the rally. The final top, however, formed after some back-and-forth trading and a move slightly above the previous high.Consequently, the fact that gold moved a bit above its own high-volume reversal (May 19, 2021) is not an invalidation of the analogy, but rather its continuation.There’s one more thing I would like to add, and it’s that back in 2012, gold corrected to approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level – furthermore, the same happened in 2008 as you can see in the below chart. Consequently, the fact that gold moved above its 50% Fibonacci retracement doesn’t break the analogy either. And even if gold moves to $1,940 or so, it will not break it. It’s not likely that it is going to move that high, as in both cases –in 2008 and 2012 – gold moved only somewhat above its high-volume reversal before forming the final top. So, as this year’s huge-volume reversal took place close to the 50% retracement and not the 61.8% retracement, it seems that we’ll likely see a temporary move above it, which will create the final top. And that’s exactly what we see happening so far this week.The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped.Also, please note that while it might seem bullish that gold managed to rally above its declining black resistance line recently (the one based on the 2020 top and the 2021 top), please note that the same happened in 2012 – I marked the analogous line with red. The breakout didn’t prevent gold from sliding. When the price reached the line, we saw a short-term bounce, but nothing more than that – the gold price fell through it in the following weeks.Meanwhile, the USD Index has just confirmed its short-term breakout, suggesting that the analogy to 2016 and the similarity to how it bottomed (triple bottom with lower lows) in mid-2020 remains intact – and so does the bullish outlook for the universally-hated-and-massively-shorted U.S. currency.The USD Index reversed yesterday in a supposedly bearish manner, but today’s pre-market price action shows that it was just a fake reversal. It seems that a major bottom in the USDX is already in, as the breakout above the declining short-term resistance line (that started with the April top) was verified. And with the outlook for the USD Index being bullish, the implications for the precious metals market are bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Sees Deeper Correction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.06.2021 09:48
EURUSD confirms bearish divergenceThe US dollar further recovers after the ADP showed nearly a million jobs added last month.A bearish RSI divergence in the supply area (1.2255) was a forward warning that the previous rally was losing steam.The fall below 1.2185 suggests that the bulls may start to unwind their positions. A brief rebound around 1.2200 saw strong selling interest. Sentiment has turned bearish and the drop below 1.2130 could trigger a broader sell-off towards 1.2070, the first support found on the daily chart.AUDJPY sold from major resistanceThe Australian dollar slipped after muted retail sales in April. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near 85.15. Four failed attempts to clear this resistance level suggest exhaustion from the buy-side.The break below 84.75 could be the straw that broke the camel’s back as buyers start to bail out. The sell-off could gain momentum once it goes below 84.55. Then 84.25 is the next support.An oversold RSI may lead to a temporary pullback, which could turn out to be a dead cat bounce.NAS 100 falls from daily resistanceEquity markets dip on upbeat jobs numbers as the inflation scare resurfaces.The Nasdaq 100 has been struggling near 13800, a major resistance level on the daily chart. The first dip below 13620 has prompted cautious buyers to get out near 13710 while they still could.13400 is the base of the latest rally and a key support in the short term. Its breach could send the index to 13160. An oversold RSI may temporarily alleviate the selling pressure as new sellers await a rebound before joining in.
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The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.06.2021 12:49
Inflation broke into the economy violently. It’s a destructive, dark force. But gold can resist it, being after all a much stronger asset than Anakin Skywalker.Last month, I wrote that “inflation is knock, knock, knockin’ on golden door”. I was wrong. Inflation didn’t knock, it broke down the door! Indeed, as the chart below shows, the core CPI surged 3%, while the overall CPI annual rate soared 4.2% in April – this is twice the Fed’s target!Now, the question is whether this elevated inflation will turn out to be just “transitory”, as the Fed and the pundits claim, or become more permanent. On the one hand, given that April-May 2020 was the worst phase of the pandemic with the deepest price declines, the current high inflation readings are perfectly understandable, and we could see lower numbers later this year.On the other hand, inflation may be higher and/or more persistent than many analysts believe . After all, the April reading came as a shock for them and even for the top US central bankers. For example, Richard Clarida, the Fed Vice-Chair, said: “I was surprised”. It shows that there is more in high inflation than just the base effect. Indeed, the CPI index with February 2020, i.e., the last pre-pandemic month as a base, has jumped 3.1% so far – lower but still significantly above the Fed’s target.It shouldn’t be surprising given the surge in the broad money supply and increase in fiscal transfers to citizens. Incomes are higher and people are ready to spend their money. Stronger demand met with supply shortages, so the prices rose. And what is important, the increases are widespread: from commodities to used cars and houses.However, there are a few important upside risks to inflation . First, a rise in wages. Although employment is far from the pre-epidemic level, entrepreneurs struggle to find workers. Therefore, they could be forced to increase wages to pull employees away from generous government benefits. If passed on, higher input costs would translate into higher consumer prices.Second, a housing boom . Rising housing prices show that inflationary pressure is something more than just CPI inflation, and all this could drive shelter inflation higher. More importantly, though, as shelter dominates in the CPI basket, the official inflation would rise as a result.Third, an increase in inflationary expectations. In May, the University of Michigan index that gauges near-term inflation expectations surged to 4.6%from 3.4%in April. What’s important, the index that measures inflation expectations for the next five years also rose – from 2.7% in April to 3.1% in May, which is the highest level in a decade. As the chart below shows, the market-based inflation expectations have also been surging recently.This is a very important development, potentially even a game-changer. You see, inflation remained low for years partially because Americans didn’t expect high inflation. They used to see persistent inflation as a thing of the past. They had strong confidence in the Fed , believing that the US central bank would quickly intervene to prevent inflation.However, that belief could go away now . The Fed’s new monetary framework and officials’ speeches clearly indicate that the US central bank has become more tolerant of higher inflation. The Fed has returned – just like in the 1970s – to focus on full employment and its “shortfalls” instead of deviations, forgetting that economies can become too hot as well as too cold. Given the dominance of doves in the Fed – but also in the Treasury with Yellen as a Secretary – one can reasonably doubt whether or not the US central bank is ready to hike the federal funds rate in response to higher inflation. Just like in the years before the Great Stagflation , the Fed could decide that it’s better to live with inflation than bear the pain of combating it.More importantly, such a fight would be challenging now, as the public debt is a few times higher.As the chart below shows, the federal debt held by the public is now 100% of the GDP , four times larger than throughout the 1970s. Hence, the increase in interest rates would amplify fiscal deficits even more. To paint the perspective, April’s core CPI was the highest since 1982, when the Fed was trying to control inflation, and interest rates were double-digit. So, the government would be obliged to cut its expenditures, while the climate is rather to spend as much money as possible. Therefore, the Fed is under strong pressure not to tighten its monetary policy .What does all this mean for the gold market? Well, when people question the willingness or ability of the government and central bank to tame inflation, they expect it to go higher, which increases the actual inflation and make it more persistent. Such a negative surprise, with inflation expectations unanchored, would make prices rise abruptly – but also the demand for gold as an inflation hedge would increase . Given the widespread economic repercussions and elevated uncertainty triggered by higher inflation – which is one of the biggest threats to this economic cycle – gold could gain as a safe-haven asset .Of course, gold is not a perfect inflation hedge in the short term. If interest rates increase or the Fed tightens monetary conditions in response to inflation, gold may struggle. Actually, a start of normalization of the monetary policy could push gold downward, just as it happened in 2011.However, given the current pretending that “there is no inflation” by the Fed, it’s likely that the US central bank won’t react promptly, remaining behind the curve. The delay in tightening could de-anchor inflationary expectations and trigger an inflationary spiral, pushing real interest rates down but also gold prices up.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
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Another Taper Mirage Comes and Goes

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.06.2021 16:01
S&P 500 succumbed to the bears – partially. The ADP figures lifted the dollar and put Treasury yields under pressure, which equals encouraging speculation that taper is coming. Rest assured, it isn‘t in practice, apart from communication exercises otherwise known as forward guidance, all happening during a week when the Fed injected $32bn into the markets. Today‘s non-farm payrolls can modestly boost that fata morgana, but it‘s a taper bridge too far. They can‘t meaningfully tighten, and they know it – look what happened last time Powell emphatically insisted (Dec 2018).But the market reaction is what matters, and yesterday‘s session in (not only tech) stocks, precious metals and commodities, highlights the degree to which the transitory inflation story has been swallowed hook, line and sinker, dialing back the inflation commodity trades meaningfully (sideways). Should the transition into a higher inflation environment be appreciated for what it is, the dive in gold, silver and copper wouldn‘t have been that steep. On the other hand, the sharpest moves tend to be the countertrend ones – yes, I‘m still of the opinion that the current reflationary period with reopening rush (more juice left in value over growth trades) is conducive to higher stock market and commodity prices. Including precious metals, naturally.For more proof, look at the barely budging inflation expectations (TIP:TLT rather than RINF which got spooked a bit too much – similarly to tech yesterday), and have a read of my extensive Wednesday and Thursday analyses, well worth it each but best when combined for your daily dose of countenance in the markets. What‘s new now, are the taper starting date (as if the discussion was initiated in the first place at all) considerations:(…) what‘s holding stocks then? Neither uncertainty about the Fed policy, nor surging inflation cutting into P&L, nor crashing bonds – what we‘re seeing is run of the mill volatility as stocks move both into a structurally higher inflation environment, and await Fed moves which are much farther down the time line than the markets appreciate. Heck, even the option traders keep undergoing the earlier announced shift to complacency.Yes, the taper talk has dialed back the inflation trades to a degree, but hasn‘t knocked them off in the least. In a reflation, both stocks and commodities do well, and we‘re still far away from worrying about weakening GDP growth rates (today‘s ADP and unemployment data are a good proof thereof) – in my view, worries about inflation not retreating nearly enough during this Treasury market lull (taking up this summer) would come into the picture first.Moreover, the taper talk and market reaction to it, are exposing a key vulnerability in the Treasury market. The Fed is well aware that its ample support is a condition sine qua non, and that rising yields (rising real rates) aren‘t in the largest borrower and real economy‘s interests. Financial repression has to come into the picture, and that‘s one of the reasons why precious metals have been on a tear lately. We‘re also a long way from inflation breaking the back of stock market bulls:(…) we‘re undergoing stock market and commodities‘ gyrations as we‘re settling into the new reality of higher inflation including expectations, which isn‘t yet putting the stock market to test. Neither the 10-year yield rising way over 2.5% would derail the sttock bull run – but the associated volatility would be keenly felt already at the 2% level. We‘re very far from that, meaning I am not worried about the stock market leadership baton passing exlusively over to tech (growth) stocks. That would equal panic.Gold got spooked, and the PMs dive bore signs of panic, but like it or not, the weakness has been consistent with the commodities retreat. While gold is the ultimate currency, real money in the JPM‘s own admission, it‘s sensitive to real rates moves – and expectations thereof. These took a hit yesterday, and it was as I warned earlier, more readily apparent in silver. Quoting yesterday‘s comment at my own site:(…) ADP data came in positive, dollar rose and so did yields as the market (incorrectly) thinks that taper is closer. And tomorrow’s strength in non-farm payrolls would only reinforce that. The truth is though that the Fed can’t withdraw some liquidity, raise rates or even slow down the monetary expansion. Gold and commodities beyond copper (not oil though) are reacting, and miners don’t offer clues that this daily setback would be over. The taper smoke and mirrors game got a new lease on life, but the inflation trades aren’t over.In other words, we have a way to go in stabilizing the metals, but these prices would prove a buying opportunity – not a selling one.Oil is a different cup of tea – rising but not yet exerting enough pressure to sink the GDP growth story. Elevated, but supported by the oil index. A breather next would not be unimaginable – it would be welcome.Cryptos got hit by the broken heart emoji Elon tweet, well what can I say about such tweets. Doge to the moon next? The bulls need to regain footing, and rather fast.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 took a smaller hit than Nasdaq, and the volume in either isn‘t consistent with a reversal storyline. As said yesterday, I am looking for the bears to ultimately fail.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds intraday reversal is equally worrying as the long-term Treasuries dive to its daily lows.Technology and ValueTechnology including $NYFANG overreacted in my view – but value continued to cheer the rise in yields. That‘s one more reason why stocks aren‘t dipping anywhere far.Gold, Silver and MinersGold plunge doesn‘t reveal weakness through miners leading to the downside, and while respectable, the volume could have been bigger. The plunge seems overdone when nominal yields are concerned.Silver and copper have been the missing pieces in the puzzle of gold‘s steep move yesterday. Note however that the copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio isn‘t breaking down in any way.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum plunged on the headline, but would likely recover as the unrealistic taper expectations are dialed back.SummaryS&P 500 bears served us the raid yesterday, but I am looking for a swift recovery of the ground lost. The taper myth isn‘t simply to be taken seriously.Gold and silver remain well bid, and not even yesterday‘s plunge was a chart game changer. Dips remain to be bought, and the bull run is very far from over. As I wrote yesterday, the bears might come out from hibernation – only to be repelled though. Look for copper to stabilize as a precondition, with miners not falling through the floor.Crude oil is relentlessly rising, and as long as other commodities join in the party, a meaningful correction isn‘t favored. In other words, today‘s price action won‘t almost definitely see one.Bitcoin and Ethereum aren‘t as weak as the chart would suggest, and once yet another Elon disappointment is worked off (high hopes, disappointment, new hopes – wash, rinse, repeat), no thinking about thinking about talking taper would support the crypto bulls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Finds Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.06.2021 10:09
XAUUSD grinds short-term resistanceGold is recouping recent losses as the US dollar dips on unconvincing jobs data.The price has met strong buying interest at the key support at 1855, which lies near the 20-day moving average. The V-shaped recovery is likely to meet resistance below 1910. An overbought RSI could prompt short-term players to take profit.Bullish sentiment remains unchallenged from the daily chart’s perspective despite short-term volatility. A bullish breakout could resume the rally towards 1950.EURCAD bounces from demand zoneThe Canadian dollar slipped after the unemployment rate rose to 8.2% in May.The euro has so far been capped by the 30-day moving average on the daily chart.From an intraday point of view, the pair has established a support base around 1.4640-1.4660, after a lengthy consolidation. The sellers’ struggle to reach lower could be a sign of exhaustion, which may attract early buyers in the hope of a reversal.A rally above 1.4750 could challenge the major supply area at 1.4820.SPX 500 rallies to previous peakThe S&P 500 rallied after mixed US nonfarm payrolls tempered reflation fears.The short-lived correction saw solid bids at 4165, the base of a previous rally.Bullish momentum above the immediate resistance of 4125 is an indication that the short side has rushed to cover their bets. 4245 is a critical resistance and its breach could propel the index to a new record high.The RSI has ventured into the overbought area. A temporary pullback is likely to look for support above 4185.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Where Next in the Taper Drama

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.06.2021 12:02
S&P 500 duly rose on the little weaker than expected non-farm payrolls as the taper theme (start of discussions moving to serious contemplation) got dialed back. The Fed‘s forward guidance manouevers can continue, and inflation trades breathed a sigh of relief. Encouragingly for the S&P 500, reflation trades weren‘t affected as evidenced by value stocks rising again regardles of the long-dated Treasuries action.Of course, volatility welcomed the retreat in yields as much as technology did – but the option traders aren‘t buying into the upswing nearly as much. Practically speaking, Friday‘s moves in the dollar, some commodities and precious metals, reversed a great chunk of the preceding day‘s bigger swings. The guessing game on the Fed‘s taper goes on, and the upcoming CPI readings won‘t add to the markets‘ peace. Most likely, fuelling the sense of taper urgency as the inflation figures won‘t be coming on the low side. Add in the job market slowly catching fire, and you‘ll understand why I have been calling for months for elevated inflation readings.It‘s the market reaction what matters – what is at stake, is how much the Fed is still expected to fight inflation, whether it plays ostrich in toeing the transitory line much to the satisfaction or dismay of the marketplace. As I wrote on Friday:(…) Should the transition into a higher inflation environment be appreciated for what it is, the dive in gold, silver and copper wouldn‘t have been that steep. On the other hand, the sharpest moves tend to be the countertrend ones – yes, I‘m still of the opinion that the current reflationary period with reopening rush (more juice left in value over growth trades) is conducive to higher stock market and commodity prices. Including precious metals, naturally.Moreover, the taper talk (...is…) exposing a key vulnerability in the Treasury market. The Fed is well aware that its ample support is a condition sine qua non, and that rising yields (rising real rates) aren‘t in the largest borrower and real economy‘s interests. Financial repression has to come into the picture, and that‘s one of the reasons why precious metals have been on a tear lately. We‘re also a long way from inflation breaking the back of stock market bulls.So stocks have taken the risk-on cue, amply reversing Thursday‘s losses – but the same can‘t be said about gold, silver or copper. Precious metals pared Thursday‘s setback to a good degree only, and these words apply to miners as well. Not that conducive conditions hadn‘t been in place to facilitate more gains, but the optimism over Fed moves being dialed back to a more distant future, is more guarded. Understandably so when Janet Yellen would welcome higher inflation and higher rates as per her G7 meeting proclamation. The bulls aren‘t out of the woods – all eyes on nominal yields, inflation expectations and the dollar now.Oil is refusing to budge, and the oil index doesn‘t favor too much downside. Should commodities stall again though, oil would be no exception – in spite of its next upleg getting underway after the long sideways consolidation (with a bullish slant, however).Cryptos can‘t get their mojo, but aren‘t falling through the floor either. The consolidation goes on, and bulls better step in and overcome Thursday‘s highs for the recovery to continue. That‘s not unimaginable for Ethereum or Cardano, though – it‘s only that Bitcoin is acting really weak relatively speaking.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBoth S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 grew sharply, and if you look under the hood, the signals are positive. If only higher volume confirmed them.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds met an intraday setback, which is part of the short-term watchouts.Technology and ValueTechnology including $NYFANG dialed back Thursday‘s overreaction – just as was likely, and the value stocks confirming in the upswing stretching over to high beta plays in tech as well, are a positive sign for Monday.Gold, Silver and MinersIt‘s nice that gold recovered from yet another dive but, its white candle could have closed nearer to the daily highs – it‘s concerning that it didn‘t, and the same applies to miners. The return of strength has been suboptimal when nominal rates solely are assessed. Of course, that ties in to the retreat in inflation expectations being the other side of the coin, coupled with rising rates expectation underpinning the dollar.Silver recovered stronger than copper, but the red metal‘s ratio enriched with 10-year Treasury yield view, could have driven stronger gold gains. However, silver‘s outperformance isn‘t worrying here.Crude OilCrude oil is continuing its low volatility rise, volume isn‘t drying up, and the oil index supports the upleg to proceed.SummaryS&P 500 bears got on the defensive again, and credit markets give the bulls benefit of the doubt. How will another attempt at all time highs unfold, is to be closely observed for signs of strength / weakness.Gold and silver remarkably rebounded, but could have recouped even more of Thursday‘s losses. It remains a (short-term) red flag they didn‘t. The bulls haven‘t proved themselves entirely, which can be explained by yields, inflation and dollar.dynamics.Crude oil bullish chart message hasn‘t weakened one iota on Friday, and black gold‘s upleg remains underway – while a meaningful correction isn‘t favored, taking a breather would be healthy.Bitcoin and Ethereum meek recovery, bottom searching after Elon‘s broken heart emoji tweet goes on, and the Miami show didn‘t help much. The longer prices stay this low without steadily attempting a march higher, the more vulnerable they are.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold Miners: Which Door Will Investors Choose?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.06.2021 16:14
With the current situation suggestive of a Monty Hall problem, investors are clinging to the first, bullish door. But what if a different option is more likely?The Monty Hall problem is a form of a probability puzzle, and what it shows is immensely unintuitive. Suppose you are on a game show, and you need to choose one of three doors. Behind one of them is a car and behind the others, goats. You pick a door, and then the host (who knows what’s behind them) opens one of the remaining doors, behind which there is a goat. The host now asks: “Do you want to change your door choice for the remaining doors?” So, what do you do?It turns out that if you change the door, the probability of winning the car increases… two times! You have a 2/3 chance, instead of a 1/3. Tremendously unintuitive, indeed, but what if the same is happening on the market now? With a bullish prospect representing the door of the first choice, and the technicals and fundamentals the host’s help, wouldn’t it be safer to switch the door to win eventually?The Gold MinersWith investors stuck in their own version of the Monty Hall problem , guessing ‘what's behind door No.1’ has market participants scrambling to find the bullish gateway. However, with doors two and three signaling a much more ominous outcome for gold, silver and mining stocks, the key to unlocking their future performance may already be hiding in plain sight.Case in point: with the analogue from 2012 signaling a forthcoming rush for the exits, there are no fire escapes available for investors that overstay their welcome. And because those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it (George Santayana), doubters are likely to lose more than just their pride.While the most recent price action is best visible in the short-term charts, it is actually the HUI Index’s very long-term chart that provides the most important details (today’s full analysis includes 44 charts, but the graph below is one of the key ones). The crucial thing happened two weeks ago, and what we saw last week was simply a major confirmation.What happened two weeks ago was that gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains.That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks. And it has important historical analogies.Back in 2008, right before a huge slide, in late September and early October gold was still moving to new intraday highs, but the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market declined then. If stocks hadn’t declined back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance of gold would likely be present but more moderate. In fact, that’s exactly what happened in 2012.The HUI Index topped on September 21, 2012, and that was just the initial high in gold. At that time the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs – so a bit more bearish than the current back-and-forth movement in this stock index. What happened in the end? Gold moved to new highs and formed the final top (October 5, 2012). It was when the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite both, the HUI Index didn’t move to new highs.The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) ended is uncanny. The implications are very bearish for the following weeks, especially given that the gold price is following the analogy to 2008 and 2012 as well.All the above is what we had already known last week. In that case, let’s move to last week’s confirmation. The thing is that the stochastic oscillator just flashed a clear sell signal . This is important on its own as these signals often preceded massive price declines. However, extremely bearish implications come from combining both: the sell signal and the analogy of 2008 and 2012. Therefore, we should consider the sell signal in the HUI-based stochastic oscillator as yet another sign serving as confirmation that the huge decline has just begun.Thus, if history rhymes, as it tends to, the HUI Index will likely decline profoundly. How low could the gold stocks fall? If the similarity to the previous years continues, the HUI could find medium-term support in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though it seems unthinkable.But which part of the mining stock sector is likely to decline the most? In my view, the junior mining stocks.The Junior MinersGDXJ is underperforming GDX just as I’ve been expecting it to. Once one realizes that GDXJ is more correlated with the general stock market than GDX is, GDXJ should be showing strength here, and it isn’t. If stocks don’t decline, GDXJ is likely to underperform by just a bit, but when (not if) stocks slide, GDXJ is likely to plunge visibly more than GDX.Expanding on that point, the GDXJ/GDX ratio has been declining since the beginning of the year, which is remarkable because the general stock market hasn’t plunged yet. And once the general stock market suffers a material decline, the GDXJ ETF’s underperformance will likely be heard loud and clear.Please see below:Why haven’t the juniors been soaring relative to senior mining stocks? What makes them so special (and weak) right now? In my opinion, it’s the fact that we now – unlike at any other time in the past – have an asset class that seems similarly appealing to the investment public. Not to everyone, but to some. And this “some” is enough for juniors to underperform.Instead of speculating on an individual junior miner making a killing after striking gold or silver in some extremely rich deposit, it’s now easier than ever to get the same kind of thrill by buying… an altcoin (like Dogecoin or something else). In fact, people themselves can engage in “mining” these coins. And just like bitcoin seems similar to gold to many (especially the younger generation) investors, altcoins might serve as the “junior mining stocks” of the electronic future. At least they might be perceived as such by some.Consequently, a part of the demand for juniors was not based on the “sympathy” toward the precious metals market, but rather on the emotional thrill (striking gold) combined with the anti-establishment tendencies ( gold and silver are the anti- metals, but cryptocurrencies are anti-establishment in their own way). And since everyone and their brother seem to be talking about how much this or that altcoin has gained recently, it’s easy to see why some people jumped on that bandwagon instead of investing in junior miners.This tendency is not likely to go away in the near term, so it seems that we have yet another reason to think that the GDXJ ETF is going to move much lower in the following months – declining more than the GDX ETF. The above + gold’s decline + stocks’ decline is truly an extremely bearish combination, in my view.In conclusion, once gold, silver and mining stocks’ doors finally slam shut, over-optimistic investors will likely go down with the ship. And with the most volatile segments of the precious metals market eliciting the most bearish signals, those left holding the bag will likely wonder how it all went wrong. Moreover, with gold’s relative outperformance signaling waning investors’ optimism, the miners – and more specifically, the GDXJ ETF – will likely suffer the brunt of the forthcoming selling pressure. The bottom line? With the walls closing in on gold, silver and mining stocks, the game show will likely end with investors left empty-handed.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 07.06.2021 18:52
Gold and silver prices experienced quite a roller coaster ride over the last few days. Given the fast recovery on Friday we see two potential scenarios for the precious metal markets to unfold. Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?ReviewThe double low at US$1,676 in mid-March and at US$1,678 at the end of March marked the end of the eight-month correction in the gold market. In the past two months, gold was able to recover from this double low by a whopping US$240. Our conservative recovery targets of US$1,785 and US$1,855 were quickly achieved. Furthermore, gold continued its recovery until US$1,916 so far.Over the last two weeks however, the bulls (despite various attempts) failed to recapture the psychological US$1,900 level. Not surprisingly, a fast pullback brought prices back to US$1,856 on Friday early morning in the Asian markets. From here, gold came roaring back to US$1,895 as the latest non-farm payroll US job data missed expectations later during that day.The silver price, on the other hand, was able to hold up somewhat better than the gold price during the entire correction since last august. However, once the attack on the resistance zone around US$30 failed at the beginning of February, silver prices got beaten down together with the falling gold price. Accordingly, Silver reached its low on March 31 at US$23.78. But in contrast to gold, this level thus marked a higher low within the correction that began on August 7th. Currently, silver is trading just below US$28 keeping eye contact with the crucial hard resistance zone around US$30.Overall, thanks to the significant recovery over the last two months, the picture for the precious metals sector has improved significantly. The healthy pullback has been completed. The bull-market is intact. The question now remains how much time gold and silver will need to break out to new all-time highs and what type of pullback(s) we are going to see during the run up to new all-time highs.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – Clear Breakout from the Downtrend ChannelGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of June 6th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold prices had managed to easily jump above the downtrend line of the previous nine and a half months in mid of May. Thus, the correction, which began with the new all-time high at US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020, has now most likely ended. Ultimately, this healthy correction seems to have unfolded in a bullish flag pattern.At the same time, gold has been reaching the midline of the three-year uptrend channel (currently around US$1,920). In addition, the 61.8% retracement of the correction at US$1,923 has been missed so far. Thus, the zone between US$1,920 and US$1,925 remains a strong hurdle. If the bulls would manage to break through US$1,925 a quick rally towards the next resistance zone around US$1,950 to 1,960 is extremely likely. This zone around US$1,960 however is a concrete resistance as gold had failed miserably in early November and early January at this level.Overall, the weekly chart is bullish with a slightly overbought stochastic. But there aren't any signals pointing to a pullback or a trend change here. In fact, the bullish momentum makes the continuation of the rally towards US$1,960 quite likely. If on the other hand the pullback from last week gains strength, expect a target zone of US$1,820 to US$1,845. Here, a very good buying opportunity would probably arise shortly before the seasonally best time of the year.Daily Chart – Stochastic With A Fresh Sell SignalGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of June 6th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart gold had to weather a quick pullback last Thursday and early Friday morning. This pullback led prices back to the upper edge of the former downtrend channel, hence testing the resting breakout. So far, bulls managed to come back immediately, and the daily cycle might have ended in an extremely quick fashion with a low Friday morning in Asia.In the best case, the bulls still have enough fuel to extend the recovery towards the 61.8% retracement at US$1,923 and especially towards the hard resistance around US$1,960. Such an advance would likely free some more momentum (especially in silver) and could even create an escalation until midsummer. An escalation would mean that gold would test the US$2,000 to US$2,025 range before any more significant pullback can unfold.A more defensive perspective on the other hand would be, that a healthy but larger pullback has already started last Wednesday. Gold would likely come under some more selling pressure in this scenario. This could mean a continued sell-off down to the 200-day moving average (US$1,843) and the 38,2%-retracement at US$1,825 within June and July.In both cases gold will test its 200-day moving average at some point. In the “escalation” scenario it would take quite some more time and gold would first explode towards around US$2,000 before a larger pullback would then wipe out all the euphoria later in autumn again. Alternatively, we will get the pullback towards the upper edge of the former downtrend now and gold uses this little correction as a launch-pad for higher prices later in the summer. Subsequently, an attack on the US$2,000 level is expected sooner or later this summer (July to September). Overall, the picture in the precious metals sector has certainly improved considerably thanks to the strong recovery over the last two months. As well, it needs to be noted that the real momentum is going to be in silver market, once the resistance at US$30 is has been overcome.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Commitments of Traders for Gold as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderDue to the gold price recovery over the last two months, the Commitment of Trades Report (CoT) has deteriorated again. The cumulative net short position stood at 248,175 contracts as of last Tuesday. In the long-term comparison, this set-up however, is rather high and continues to urge caution and patience. Hence, the CoT-report delivers a sell signal.Sentiment for Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Sentiment Optix for Gold as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderSentiment numbers for gold are showing a rather neutral rating at the moment. So far, the recovery has not created any significant optimism let alone extreme euphoria. It is however extremely likely that the ongoing recovery will at least see some form of exaggerated optimism before it rolls over or pauses. Thus, sentiment does not stand in the way of a continuation of the rally.Seasonality for Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SeasonaxOver the last 53-years a strong seasonal pattern has evolved for the gold market. Accordingly, gold would find its typical early summer low somewhere in June or July. Subsequently, a strong advance would follow in the next step pushing gold prices to a seasonal top around late September or early October.In the current situation this could mean a continuation of the pullback that started last Wednesday over the next few weeks. From a projected low around US$1,820 to US$1,840 gold would then be ready to strongly rally during midsummer.Seasonality for Gold over the last 5-years as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SeasonaxHowever, reducing gold´s historical movements to the last five years shows quite a different seasonal cycle! Hence, in the current bull market since 2016 gold tends to show strength up until mid to end of August before rolling over significantly in September. The weakness in June and July has not been evident over the last five years.Given this statistical evidence gold has quite a high probability of simply continuing its rally towards US$1,960 and US$2,000 to US$2,025 over the next two to three months! Only after such a rally a large pullback would be likely.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of June 6th, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith prices of approx. US$36,000 for one Bitcoin and US$1,890 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently sitting at around 19. That means you now have to pay only 19 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. Put the other way around, an ounce of gold currently only costs 0.052 Bitcoin. Thus, Bitcoin has lost around 45% against gold to where it traded in March and April.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro update and Crack-up-Boom:FED Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, June 3rd, 2021.As in almost every other week, the Fed balance sheet has hit a fresh all-time high. Fed chairman Jerome Powell keeps the printing press rumbling despite rising inflation. The total assets expanded by 0.4% to a new record of US$7.94 trillion. The Fed’s balance sheet now equals 36% of the GDP for the U.S..ECB Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, June 5th, 2021.Of course Madame Lagarde is pushing even harder and the ECB balance sheet is now on course to 80% of Eurozone’s GDP. This rise to the moon looks more and more parabolic as the total assets rose by another 14.5 billion EUR on QE . You can be sure that none of these irresponsible central bankers will have the guts to return to a more sustainable monetary policy.World total stock market cap. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, June 6th, 2021.One of the most obvious consequences is asset price inflation of course. While the worldwide economic has been rather muted the market cap of all stock markets combined hit a new all time driven by the overflowing liquidity provided by nearly all central banks on this planet.But while further rising equity portfolios are certainly to be welcomed by most investors, the increased cost of living is becoming a serious problem for many people. This is true especially since the vast majority of people in any society is always struggling to meet ends needs. They simply don´t own anything that they could invest. Hence the rising tension within most western societies. Those who at least understand what’s going on are forced to become speculators and often use credit and margin to somehow profit from the asset price inflation. However, with credit and margin but without experience they only increase the imbalances in the system.Inflation pops © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 31st, 2021.Overall, the crack-up-boom is up and running and accelerating. Like a dance on the volcano. And Central bankers are doing everything to outpace any deflationary forces by simply printing more and more. Yet, the worldwide race to the bottom has no exit but is a dead end.Conclusion: Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Never before in the last 50 years it was more important to own some physical gold and silver. Independently of any price appreciation or any potential speculative gains. Simply as a protection against the loss of purchasing power and many other looming worst case scenarios.As well from a technical point of view it is vital to now own a full physical position in precious metals. The 8-month pullback from the new all-time high is done and the bulls are back in the driving seat. Once gold sustainably takes out its all-time high at US$2,075 expect an acceleration and a rather quick rally towards approx. US$2,500 and probably higher. By then you will only run behind a train that has left the station. Physical supply is already tight, and premiums are often absurdly high.Technically speaking, gold is in a recovery since March 31st which still has room to continue towards US$1,960 and approx. US$2,025. Judging from the past, gold bulls should have enough strength to push prices towards those two numbers over the coming two to four months. Any pullback or breather on the way higher should be welcomed as one of the last chances to buy gold below US$2,000 and silver below US$30.Hence, the “healthy pullback” scenario over the coming weeks might be perfect for anybody who still needs to get positioned. However, in a bull market surprises are usually happening to the upside and a direct escalation until midsummer would leave many marveling at the wayside.To conclude, buy any dip.Source: www.celticgold.euFeel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is also chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Attempts Reversal

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Attempts Reversal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.06.2021 16:02
AUDUSD rallies from key demand zone The Australian dollar claws back losses against a weaker dollar after a mixed bag of US jobs data. The pair saw a strong rebound off the demand zone (0.7650) from the daily chart. The initial surge above 0.7740 is a sign of commitment from the buy-side. As the short side rushes to cover their positions, we can expect more momentum. The zone around 0.7730 has turned into a support. After the RSI drops from its overbought condition, a break above 0.7770 could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7850. USDJPY tests rising trendline The Japanese yen advanced after a slower-than-expected GDP contraction in Q1. The US dollar has come under pressure in the supply zone near 110.30, the origin of April’s sell-off. The RSI’s repeated rise into the overbought area is an indication of exhaustion in the upward momentum. The pair is now testing the trendline from April which coincides with the psychological level of 109.00. As the RSI recovers into the neutral area, we could expect strong buying interest. 109.80 is an intermediate resistance on the way up. UK 100 holds firm after breakout The FTSE 100 consolidates its gains as investors await confirmation of the June 21 reopening. Price action has found support at 7010 after it broke above the flag consolidation. This is a sign of a bullish continuation now that the sellers could be out of action. 7115 is the immediate resistance and its clearance would lead to the previous peak at 7165. A bullish close above this critical level would lift the index to 7200. On the downside, a drop below 7040 may extend the consolidation towards the psychological level of 7000.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

US Government Stimulus Went Wrong. How Will Gold React?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.06.2021 19:18
Gold may benefit from government money flooding households and people less willing to work – as evidenced by the low value of nonfarm payrolls.According to the recent BLS Employment Situation Report , total nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 in May, following disappointing increases of 278,000 in April, as the chart below shows. What is disturbing here is that this time the US economy also added significantly fewer jobs than expected – economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecasted 671,000 additions. Moreover, labor force participation and employment-population rates were little changed, remaining significantly below the pre-pandemic levels.On the positive side, the unemployment rate edged down from 6.1% to 5.8%, as the chart above shows. However, even though the number of unemployed people fell considerably from its recent high in April 2020, it remains well above the level seen before the Covid-19 epidemic. In February 2020, 5.7 million Americans were without a job, while now it is 9.3 million. It means that the labor market is still far from recovery . Or, actually, given all the generous unemployment benefit supplements introduced during the pandemic, the new equilibrium unemployment rate may be simply higher than in the past.Implications for GoldAnyway, the new employment situation report is positive for the gold market . May nonfarm payrolls report is disappointingly weak and missed expectations for the second month in a row. It means that the April report wasn’t just an accident, and the US labor market has to face some serious problems.The sad truth is that Americans don’t want to work. Even the decline in the unemployment rate was caused to a large extent by the drop in the labor participation rate, as workers just left the labor market. This fact explains why employers report worker shortages despite an army of a few million unemployed people. According to the recent Fed’s Beige Book , many companies have difficulties finding new employees, so they had to boost their wages to attract candidates:It remained difficult for many firms to hire new workers, especially low-wage hourly workers, truck drivers, and skilled tradespeople (…) A growing number of firms offered signing bonuses and increased starting wages to attract and retain workers.Even the BLS admitted that “rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages”. Indeed, wage increases accelerated to 2% in May year-over-year, up from just 0.4% in the previous month. They could add to the inflationary pressure or reduce companies’ margins and investments, reducing the pace of real economic growth. So, the jump in wages seems to be good for gold . Hence, the yellow metal could continue its long-term upward trend after the recent pullback below $1,900 (see the chart below).Additionally, disappointing employment situation news will postpone tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing . The weak nonfarm payrolls report gives a strong hand to the doves within the FOMC who don’t want to even start talking about talking about tapering. Hence, the US monetary policy should remain very dovish , with the real interest rates at ultra-low levels supporting gold prices . Indeed, the expected path of the federal funds rate , derived from the Fed Fund futures , has declined from the prior levels.In other words, although May nonfarm payrolls report is an improvement when compared to April, the level of employment is still 7.6 million below its pre-pandemic peak. So, even if we see further improvement later this year (which is likely, as many states end the unemployment benefit supplements this month), it will take several more months to fully eliminate the slack in the labor market. The implication is clear: precious metals investors shouldn’t bet on a change in the Fed’s stance anytime soon. And as the yellow metal is very sensitive to tapering fears, this is positive news for gold bulls.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Gold: Do Not Underestimate My… Copper?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.06.2021 16:03
Copper is often overlooked when looking for gold price movement clues. But this time, its breakout invalidation may have the high ground.Do you know what the key commodity in today’s world is? Crude oil. It’s the most commonly used good on the planet. In terms of versatility and number of applications, silver is not far behind, but there is also one more market that definitely comes to one’s mind when one hears “world commodity” – copper. And for a good reason – while it doesn’t have as unique properties as silver or gold, copper is much cheaper and thus more widely available.Consequently, what’s happening in copper prices might have quite profound effects on the rest of the world, including the precious metals market. And the thing is: something very important happened to the price of copper recently.The Importance of the Brown MetalNamely, copper has just invalidated its breakout to new highs, which means that – just like in the case of gold in August 2020 – it wasn’t strong enough to soar higher. Well, it’s not to say that copper is weak, as it has more than doubled its price since the 2020 lows. However, it does mean that it’s likely time for a bigger corrective downswing, especially given that we haven’t seen one in many months. For instance, when gold invalidated its breakout above the 2011 high despite very bullish fundamentals, it meant that forecasting gold at lower levels was very much justified.Likewise, when copper failed to hold its breakout above the 2008 high back in 2011, it was followed by a multi-year decline. Will the same happen this time? I wouldn’t bet on that given the amount of money being pumped into the system, but even if this is not the case, copper is likely to suffer a significant drawdown on a temporary basis. No market can move up or down in a straight line, and neither copper nor gold nor silver are exceptions to this rule.Ok, but why is it important for the precious metals investors?Because of two things:Both markets tend to move in a big way at similar times. The more local moves can vary, but the really big price moves are usually aligned. For example, the 2008 – 2011 rally and the fact that they both bottomed in late-2015 / early-2016.The copper price is quite closely related to the general stock market and the former’s inability to hold above its previous highs seems to be an indication of a change in the trend in the general stock market as well.As I wrote before, the general stock market’s decline is not required for the precious metals sector to decline, but it would likely exacerbate the decline, just like it did in 2008 – especially in the case of silver and mining stocks.And speaking of stocks, let’s check what the S&P 500 is doing.The markets are self-similar (which is another way of saying that they have a fractal nature), which generally means that while the history tends to rhyme, it also tends to rhyme in similar shapes of alike or various sizes.For example, the rally from 2018–2020 seems very similar to the rally from 2020 to the present. Both rallies started after a sharp decline, and the first notable correction took the form of back-and-forth trading around the previous high. I marked those situations with big rectangles.Then the rally continued with relatively small week-to-week volatility. I created rising support lines based on the final low of the broad short-term consolidation and the first notable short-term bottom.This line was broken, and some back-and-forth trading followed, but it was only about half of the previous correction in terms of price and time.Then, we saw a sharp rally that then leveled off. And that was the top . The thing that confirmed the top was the visible breakdown below the rising support line right after stocks invalidated a tiny breakout to new highs. That’s what happened in February 2020, and that’s what seems to be taking place right now.Back in 2020, the rally ended when the weekly RSI moved above 70 once again and when the S&P moved slightly to its new highs. While the history doesn’t have to repeat itself to the letter, if we see another small move higher – to new highs – that also takes the RSI above 70, please keep in mind that it’s not really a bullish development, but actually history forming its final rhyme. And the implications appear bearish for the precious metals sector, as it’s likely to be hit by the first wave of stock market declines – just like it was the case in 2008, 2020, and… 1929.Moreover, mining stocks’ performance relative to hold has been heralding the declines across the precious metals market for some time now.While gold is not doing much today, it’s important to note that yesterday it moved quite close to its previous highs (and visibly above $1,900) before declining. And how did gold miners react?In short, they didn’t. And the GDX ETF has just closed at a new monthly low.Even without considering the invalidation of the breakout to new highs, the sell signal from the RSI and stochastic indicators, and even without noticing that the GDX corrected to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement without invalidating it, one can clearly see that gold stocks refused to follow gold higher during the most recent rebound. This is bearish – and quite profoundly so.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Timber! What Do Insane 2021 Lumber Prices Mean for You?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.06.2021 16:56
As many commodities have continued to climb impressively, one stands out like a sore thumb to me: lumber . What can the price of lumber mean, or more importantly, do f or you?Before diving into the lumber market, let’s review the current state of the S&P 500.There weren’t too many surprises in the S&P 500 in Tuesday's cash session, as the $SPX settled practically flat on the day. $SPX is at the higher end of its recent range, as discussed in yesterday’s publication . It will most likely require a catalyst of some sort to push through higher or break lower from here. Will Thursday’s CPI data be the catalyst? I think it could be.After last month’s monster CPI print , traders are on their tippy-toes waiting for this data release. It is important to know that the $SPX was already down for two consecutive sessions when last month’s CPI print came out. It then sold off further intraday (May 12) and closed sharply lower.Figure 1 - $SPX S&P 500 Index April 28, 2021 - June 8, 2021, Hourly Candles Source tradingview.comIt seems like everyone is talking about inflation, and with good reason! It is real and is impacting lives. All eyes are peeled for Thursday's CPI data release.Speaking of inflation, have you noticed the price of lumber lately? We all know that commodities are much higher and that homes are priced ridiculously high across most of the US. What amazes me is the demand and ability for borrowing at such high prices...but that is a subject for another time.Check out this long-term chart of Lumber Futures (front-month):Figure 2 - LBS1! Random Length Lumber Futures Continuous Contract December 1972 - June 2021 Monthly Candles Source tradingview.comThat’s a 48-Year chart for lumber, folks. Again, that is a chart for lumber. There is no Bitcoin or Dogecoin inside the lumber. There isn't any 24K gold hiding in there. It is wood, and it managed to go ~ 8X from the pandemic lows.This monster clearly decided that the average prices over nearly half a century just didn’t apply anymore. What a move!I want to put this in big bold letters here: I strongly suggest against trading in Lumber Futures. They can be illiquid, and experience many limit up and limit down days. You could be stuck in a losing position and not be able to get out. The only traders in Lumber futures should be hedgers that are in the wood business or deep pocket institutional traders that have real money to burn. Futures trading entails unlimited risk. I am sure that many fortunes have been made, and many more have been lost during this insane lumber market. Being on the wrong side of a futures market like that can be brutal.Now that we have that out of the way, is there another way to participate in this market?Yes, there is. But first, have you been following along with the GRID ETF trade that was covered in the May 6, 2021 publication? We were targeting an idea buy range of $86.91 - $88.17.Figure 3 - First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (GRID) Daily Candles January 7, 2021 - June 8, 2021. Source tradingview.comGiven the infrastructure bill theme that is currently in play in the US, the $100 Billion aimed at upgrading and building out the nation's electrical grid , and the fact that the new administration is still in its very early days, I don’t think it is too late to get aboard. I like pullbacks, and we will be covering them.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's explore a potential opportunity in the lumber sector. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels. For a limited time, there is a 14-day trial available for only $9!Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Bitcoin market, the ultimate enforcer

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.06.2021 17:52
The market doesn’t care. It isn’t budging to any of your moves. The market can evoke inappropriate responses on your side by depleting your financial security and self-confidence. This can have a similar effect for a trader in the situation of execution. They freeze. Another failure confronted with the shock of yet another stop level hit makes the speculator incapable of acting. They watch victimized how prices go way beyond their comfort level and planned exit price. Intimidated, they sit and might lose their livelihood in a single trade.This Bitcoin trend is worth the extra effort to face the enforcer.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, First things first, overview:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 7th, 2021To escape the ‘enforcer’, the most crucial factor is emotional removal. Markets trigger emotions, and the top-down approach on a quiet chart (not moving) is critical here. Whether you are a long-term investor or a short-term position trader, you always want to be on the side of the most potent force. The most significant player is the monthly chart´s direction.While recent events might dampen the mood if you are positioned in Bitcoin, the monthly chart above shows that everything is in a healthy order of Bitcoins directional expansion move. Bitcoin had broken a multiyear sideways range and advanced nearly fourfold after its breakout from the channel highs. It retraced by 50%, which is conservative for Bitcoin. A fractal volume analysis shows precisely at the same supply zone as the Fibonacci analysis support (green horizontal line).Should emotions have cooled off for participating in the Bitcoin market, then these emotions are deceiving. The retracement might have intimidated you, while with a fresh view at this chart, the professional trader should think: “Entries”. This month and maybe even the next month might represent a sideways market. More importantly be prepped for large time frame entries.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Making Plans:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 7th, 2021To stay emotionally balanced and independent of the market’s possible intimidating moves, it is best to be prepared with a plan.On the weekly chart above, you see part of one of our strategies of how the future might unfold. Once price penetrated the 18 simple moving average (red) prices declined swiftly.Right now, they creep up the 40 simple moving average (orange), but probabilities are in favor of a retest of recent lows near US$30,000. (= a break of the 40 SMA). While this price level is also equivalent to the neckline of a head and shoulders formation (yellow), we anticipate, after a swift spike through the 52 simple moving average to hold and prices (white dotted line), to advance from there.This leaves us with an entry zone near levels of US$27,000 to US$31,000, which we will fine-tune on a smaller frame at the time of entry. All our entries and exits are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Low risk first:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 7th, 2021Safety first is critical. In trading, this means risk mitigation at all costs. No one knows a specific level of entry where the markets will turn. Gladly you do not need to. What you do need is a methodology to protect your capital. Keeping your losses small in the case you are wrong. We use quad exits to ensure this risk reduction. The daily chart above shows a confirmation of our prior higher time frame assessments. As much as we are generally in an attractive long-term investment entry zone, we do not trade from a time cycle in a low-risk environment just yet.The bear flag formation with prices right below POC warrants patience to wait for time cycles to provide more low-risk entries in the future. POC = point of control = high volume node as a strong distribution zone.Bitcoin market, the ultimate enforcer:In the case of Bitcoin, the market isn’t the only intimidator. An accumulation race around the globe has ensued. Governments, central banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, large investors, and now you are all after the digital currency. Naturally, the big players throw every trick in the book at their opponents. Minor players quickly are squashed by altered chart patterns and unusual market behavior on all time frames.Therefore, what is required is a humble determination not to be intimidated out of this market. Certainly, a rare source of wealth protection over the following years, if not decades. We have managed by applying ourselves daily in analysis and research to extract fundamental data and technical principles that work as stacked edges in trading this complex market throughout various time frames. We share our findings in our free Telegram channel with full transparency. In addition, you will also find there our real-time entry and exit signals to encourage investors and traders alike not to be bullied out of this significant market niche. Consequently, being part of what we foresee as the biggest bull run in Bitcoin´s history.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 7th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Volatility? All Eyes on CPI – Looking Beyond the Data Release

Volatility? All Eyes on CPI – Looking Beyond the Data Release

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.06.2021 13:15
Market participants are all waiting with bated breath ahead of today’s CPI data release. It’s an important one after last month's shocker. So, what’s your plan?In general, data releases can be fickle and tricky events. While they may provide opportunities for algorithmic traders due to short-term spats of volatility, it can be challenging to initiate or exit a position as the market digests the data upon release. Longevity in trading can be achieved by being flat around data releases (or at least not highly leveraged); and/or having a what-if plan already in place.Today’s CPI data (this publication is being written before the data release) could provide some fireworks. Last month, the expectations were for a 0.2% print, and we got 0.8%. Today, the market is looking for 0.4% for the CPI print (includes food and energy) and 0.5% for Core CPI (excludes food and energy). Could this be on the lofty side? Or, will inflation begin to spiral out of control?Keep in mind that we are heading into a Fed Meeting June 15 -16 . If prices continue to rise at an exponential rate, will the Fed really be willing to raise interest rates? It would be appropriate by many standards to do so. However, the theme has been “lower for longer”; and this creates a sense of uncertainty as to what the plan may be if we get another huge CPI print. While neither you nor I have a crystal ball available, my inclination is that the print could be below expectations. If that happens, it would fit the Fed’s “transitory inflation” theme that was discussed in the past. We will find out at 8:30 AM ET today.As traders wait on this data, the $VIX certainly caught a bump in yesterday’s trading.Figure 1 - $VIX Volatility Index March 10, 2021 - June 8, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe can see some technically bullish signs in the $VIX above, with some long daily tails on the candles coinciding with the April lows. RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) are showing bullish crossover signs. The $VIX can be a bit of a tricky barometer to trade technically.Figure 2 - SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF March 9, 2021 - June 8, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThe SPY indeed put in a down session yesterday with the $VIX higher. As we have been discussing, the S&P 500 is near the higher end of its range and will most likely need a catalyst to get moving one way or the other.The 50-day moving average is $414.58 right now, which is only 1.676% away from the current price. A move down to the 50-day moving average could be of interest.In addition, we can see the Fibonacci retracement levels of interest in the SPY from the May 19th low to the June 8th highs. We see the 50% retracement level @ $414.38 and the 61.8% retracement level at $412.26. I like how the 50% retracement level lines up with the 50-day moving average here.Figure 3 - SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF March 9, 2021 - June 8, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comNext, no one knows with any degree of certainty how the equity markets will react to the CPI print, whether it exceeds or misses expectations. Here is what we do know: the last data release brought the cash S&P 500 near the 50-day moving average, which held up well. It then tested the 50-day moving average four trading sessions later, and it once again held up very well. Could the same type of price action be in store this time?Nobody knows. However, I am inclined to look for a move for a potential pullback opportunity, between $412.26 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level above) and the 50-day moving average ($414.58 as of the close on June 8th). If the market moves higher off the CPI data, so be it. The market will be there tomorrow. Remember to monitor the 50-day moving average level, as it changes each day!Now, for our premium subscribers, let's recap the eight markets that we are currently covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. 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Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Will Gold Rally Continue in the Upcoming Months?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.06.2021 15:25
May was certainly a positive month for the yellow metal. Gold could keep its momentum later this year, but a lot depends on the Fed and inflation.We left May in the rearview mirror, and as the chart below shows, it was the second positive month in a row for the yellow metal. Gold rose 7% last month – this is 12.3% since the local bottom on March 31, 2021 . The jump was driven mainly by inflation fears, a weak greenback and a decrease in real interest rates .Hence, I was right: the second quarter has been so far much better for the shiny metal than the first one, in which it declined by 11%. Gold even jumped temporarily above $1,900 at the turn of May and June. Since then, it has been fluctuating around this level. All this means that the yellow metal fully recovered its Q1 losses, finishing last month virtually flat year-to-date.Now, the key question is: what’s next for gold? Outlooks are, as always, divided. Some analysts point out that gold’s struggle to move decisively north above $1,900 amid all the increase in the money supply , public debt and inflation is disturbing and has bearish implications for the future. For instance, the French bank Société Générale still believes that we will see $2,000 per ounce by the end of the year, but its conviction towards this forecast has weakened. I have to admit – the lack of a stronger rally in gold is something I also worry about.But on the other hand, some believe that gold is still in a long-term bull trend . For instance, the World Gold Council , in its latest Gold Market Commentary , points out that sentiment towards gold became more bullish in May , as net positioning on COMEX futures rose to its highest level since February. Moreover, not only gold ETFs recorded their first monthly inflows since January 2021, but also the highest ones since September 2020.Furthermore , the WGC’s 2021 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey reveals a slightly stronger conviction towards gold , as there is a growing recognition among central banks of gold’s performance during periods of economic crises . The report notes that 21% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves within the next year (value relatively unchanged from last year’s survey) and that no central bank expects to sell gold this year – down from 4% in 2020.Also, Commerzbank remains bullish on gold despite recent volatility . Although the German bank expects that the Fed will start tapering its quantitative easing by the fourth quarter, it’s forecasting rising inflation. As a result, nominal interest rates will stay below the inflation rate leaving real bond yields significantly below zero.Implications for GoldWhat does all this imply for the gold market? Well, there are both downside and upside risks for gold in the future . Possible drawbacks are the unwinding of the Fed’s bond-buying program and the new tightening cycle . Strengthening expectations of asset purchases tapering and normalization of the ultra-dovish monetary policy could trigger an increase in the interest rates and outflows from the gold market.To the other group of factors, I would include higher inflation. After all, we have never seen such coexistence of dovish monetary policy and easy fiscal policy . Not surprisingly, investors started to worry about record-breaking inflation. As the chart below shows, market-based probabilities derived from options (calculated by the Minneapolis Fed , which computes probabilities from option prices) show that the previous expectations of the CPI annual rate above 3% over five years have significantly increased recently. Higher inflation would increase demand for gold as an inflation hedge and decrease real interest rates, supporting gold prices.So, gold’s future depends on the Fed’s reaction to rising inflation , or whether or not investors will focus on nominal and real interest rates. If the US central bank stays behind the inflation curve, real interest rates will stay in the negative territory, supporting the price of gold. However, if the Fed tightens its monetary policy decisively, or if investors focus on rising nominal bond yields in a response to inflation, the yellow metal may go down.To that point, the most recent changes in the Fed’s framework, comments from the FOMC members and disappointing data about the US labor market suggest that we are far away from any serious tightening. So, gold has room for moving higher.Having said that, it seems that gold needs more negative events (or even a kind of financial crisis ) to rally decisively further . So far, the US economy remains in the boom phase and higher inflation doesn’t seem to significantly disrupt the functioning of the markets. Perhaps gold bulls will have to wait a bit longer until we move from reflation to stagflation . Today’s report on inflation and upcoming FOMC meeting could provide more clues about gold’s future – stay tuned!If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. 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European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Inflation Storm Coming

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.06.2021 16:15
S&P 500 going nowhere, repelling selling pressure concentrated to value as tech mostly defended the daily ground – that‘s a fair summary of the stock market going into today‘s CPI. VIX rising and the put/call ratio as complacent as can be, are signs of quite some moves ahead.I won‘t go into the transitory vs. getting permanently elevated inflation arguments too much today – see them covered in detail namely on Jun 08, Jun 02, May 27, May 17, and May 12.Over the coming month – most likely starting with the CPI readings for September – the low yearly base effect and reopening rush would be sufficiently history. But the strained and disrupted supply chains beyond microchips, high cost base as evidenced by the CRB index lumping many commodities together, difficulties hiring, and not exactly labor market friendly policies a la minimum wages, would deliver a one-two punch to the transitory concepts – because transitory as in temporary, brings up to my mind J. M. Keynes „In the long run, we‘re all dead“ quote.As I‘ve stated on Twitter, commodities with silver, then gold are more in danger than stocks for today - but even these would eventually recover. The Fed isn‘t in a position to do more than token steps to satisfy public consumption, so keep in mind the big picture regarding taper, rate raising, or even the (market declared so historically) balance sheet contraction success on a lasting basis (we‘re not in the post WWII era when the U.S. could grow its way out of debt as in the „City on the Hill“ inspirational speech decades later.(…) The dollar doesn‘t look to be turning around – Thursday‘s upswing has been erased, but look for the greenback to reflexively rise when confronted with „taper now“ prospects. But is the Fed ready to welcome higher rates, and work towards them? I look for plenty of assurances that the support would be very gradually withdrawn so as not to affect the markets…Toothless compromises for public consumption fit into the picture greatly too...Look, the $6T boondoggle is dead on arrival, and won‘t turn out nearly so in the end and fast enough, which would take a little pressure off the still hot inflation trades. Commodities, followed by silver, and finally gold would feel (by extent of reaction) the short-term pinch, but remember that inflation fires on two engines - and the job market one is arriving.Commodities exerting cost-push influence, and job market pressures, would be a one-two punch to the transitory inflation arguments. Deflationary shock simply isn‘t likely at the moment – the market will more probably find out the Fed isn‘t as serious about taper as it pretends to be – the ostrich pose. Or we might be cushioned into a higher inflation environment actually (thank you, Janet), being told it‘s for our own good.Gold is confirming yesterday mentioned point of being more vulnerable than silver to a scared dump, and the miners weakness still shows it won‘t be smooth sailing for the yellow metal either. And it isn‘t. Copper is worrying down even more, hinting that today‘s session will be far from a calm one in the bond arena. Remember though the big picture once again:(…) the red metal‘s bullish bias is clearly there, both in the short run and medium-term as I had been stating months ago that you can‘t (attempt to) build a green economy without copper, silver, or nickel, among much else. It‘s massive and we‘re in a commodities superbull already – and the lumber arguments (not confirmed by timber weakness as I remarked) can be easily refuted by the $CRB index performance.Crude oil would likely be among the more hesitant movers today, still consolidating.Bitcoin has shown rare daily strength yesterday – one that wasn‘t reflected universally in the crypto space. However impressive daily run, residual doubts remain, and Ethereum is still range bound.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 again didn‘t move much, and neither did Nasdaq. Both calm and nervousness before today‘s CPI, likely to be resolved higher.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds‘ yet another black candle looks ominously – but only for the short term. Quality debt instruments rising is a sign of rush to safety and uncertainty ahead of CPI. As said yesterday too, it‘s though still a bullish sign that HYG rose.Technology and ValueTechnology including $NYFANG again had a relatively good day, and the unease shown by its black candle is to be seen foremost in value.Inflation ExpectationsThey‘re moving lower, but the TIP:TLT ratio isn‘t to be trusted even as the lull in yields remains on through the summer.Gold, Silver and MinersThe above is a picture of momentary stress to be reversed like a spring board, exactly in line with either of these two tweets before that happened: first on inflation, second on transitory vs. permanently elevated.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bulls aren‘t out of the woods yet, but it‘s not unreasonable to expect the biting inflation to improve their stance.SummaryS&P 500 remains well positioned for further gains, and it paid off to wait through the premarket tremors in Nasdaq too.Gold and silver are well positioned to withstand the pressures, and the miners to invalidate their recent weakness.Crude oil would likely hitch a ride in a tight range on the bullish side, without sprinting.Bitcoin and Ethereum look to be entereing a wait and see session today – the bulls have much work ahead, not only in bringing Ethereum out of its sideways consolidation.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Fakes Rebound

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 11.06.2021 09:53
USDCHF fails to bounce backThe US dollar surged after May’s core CPI rose by 3.8% yoy.The pair remained under pressure after it broke below the lower band of the consolidation range at 0.8930. An oversold RSI has led to a brief whipsaw, which has turned out to be more of an opportunity to sell into strength.Unless the greenback can lift the offers around the psychological level of 0.9000, the price could see another round of sell-off. February’s low at 0.8870 would be the next target should the pair dip below 0.8920.EURJPY capped by key resistanceThe euro weakened after the ECB maintained its accommodative monetary stance.The pair has so far kept its bullish bias following a rally above April 2018’s high at 133.48. The price action has bounced off 132.90, the base of a previous rally which also coincides with the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.133.80 is a major resistance, as its breach could clear the path for an extended rally above 134.However, a drop below the aforementioned congestion area may prolong the sideways actions towards 132.50.GER 30 seeks support on key daily levelThe DAX consolidates gains as investors weigh high valuation against the pace of recovery.On the daily chart, a bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration in the rally after a six-week-long consolidation.The index is currently looking for support from the 20-day moving average (15475). Bullish sentiment remains strong as long as buyers hold above this key level. Failing that, 15350 would be the next line of defense.On the upside, a recovery to 15720 would bring in momentum players for a runaway rally.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Silver, there’s so much more going on

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.06.2021 10:42
This means the environment where you can extract the financial gains to live a more free life is first squeezing you into a very unfree daily exercise, for most an unsustainable task.In addition, the only way to succeed is to overcome an endless array of obstacles. Setbacks are the norm, and most expect riches to come soon, but it takes experience to be a consistent trader.It is especially now, with Silver being right before breakout to new highs, essential to have one’s ducks in a row. Professional market makers are all in line to get their piece of the pie and make this market with all its potential not easy to trade for individuals.Monthly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Good risk/reward ratio:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 11th, 2021.We find the only way to consistency is by looking at the market always from a risk perspective. If risks are acceptable, exposing one’s capital is fair. The monthly chart above shows prices heading for the third time to the US$30 mark with a reasonable chance of a breakout. A fractal volume transaction analysis of the Silver market from March last year up to recent data shows a strong supply zone at US$27.50.If you take a low-risk trade near the levels we are trading at publishing date, above US$27.50, a reasonably tight stop can be placed below the US$27,50 support zone. Liquidating half of your position into the momentum of a breakout slightly above US$30 would eliminate risk. Consequently, a second partial profit target (another 25% of total exposed capital) near US$39 with a final target to close out the position at US$47.83, just shy of ATH (all-time highs), would create a more than favorable total risk/reward-ratio on this trade (=acceptable low risk for the reward). Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Various forces at work:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 11th, 2021.Zooming into the smaller weekly time frame, we can make out what forces are at work. Bulls and bears are at a tug of war, and both are defending their turf. It is hard to make out when the final attack at the US$30 mark will occur, with Gold also playing a role as the leader of the precious metal sector.Nevertheless, this chart shows the primary support and resistance levels and is supportive of our monthly chart assessment of a low-risk idea. With either the secondary channel supporting price right now or a few weeks ahead of the main channel lower trendline providing the support, we might have various opportunities for this play to pan out.Important here is to stick to one’s plan and not be deterred by real-time market behavior evoking emotions that are not principle-based in the alignment of our explicit risk control.We are sharing our attempts to place trades in real-time in our free Telegram channel. There, more importantly, you will find a community of professional traders exchanging their ideas, and you can find support for your way of market interpretations.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Anticipatory positioning:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 11th, 2021.While Fridays are typically days where Silver can give back some of their directional profits gained through the week, like everything, this is just a probability. While many make their bets on confirmed breaks, one gets more often a low-risk entry if acting anticipatory.In addition to the previously pointed out US$27.50 supply zone, the daily chart shows support near US$27.76. With stacked odds and relatively little distribution volume at the resistance zone at US$28.29, we gave it a shot. We traded more aggressively than usual towards a possible breakout.Only time will tell if these trades stay within income-producing profits or if some of these runners are getting rewarded on a different scale. But with a strong directional advantage (see the linear regression channel red/ blue/green and quite a few other edges as well), we are confident that sooner or later, recent highs in Silver will have to give way.Silver, there’s so much more going on:The only way to overcome all these hurdles is to seek out support. Do not hide your losses from your family and friends. Look for traders and, ideally, a mentor. Accept the steep learning curve and, most of all, the extended timeline it takes to become consistent in this business. Treat it like a profession with a business plan and accept a disciplined daily routine to come out ahead.Mastering oneself is the real task here. It takes self-responsibility, dedication, and sacrifice. One needs to accept that this isn’t a hobby but needs to become a career to work out in your favor. This is the only way to overcome the juggernaut you are up against.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 11th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.06.2021 15:59
With investors discrediting fundamentals to follow the FED’s instruction, it seems everything relies now on a few people’s say-so.It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's the FEDWith Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), donning his cape like Superman and his monetary crew akin to The Avengers, investors’ faith in the FED was on full display on Jun. 10. Case in point: with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging by 4.93% year-over-year (YoY) – the highest YoY percentage increase since 2008 – the bond, stock and currency markets barely flinched.The commodity PPI surged by 17.25% YoY in April. And if you exclude the 17.36% YoY jump in July 2008, it was the largest YoY percentage increase since December 1974. For context, the commodity PPI often leads the headline CPI and that’s why tracking the former’s movement is so important. Moreover, reconnecting with the green line implies a ~5.50% YoY percentage increase in the headline CPI.Please see below:And with the indicator proving quite prescient once again, the gap on the right side of the chart was nearly filled on Jun. 10.Furthermore, while investors continue to see the world through the FED’s X - Ray Vision, “base effects” are now the primary defense among the superhero’s supporters. However, as I’ve mentioned on several occasions, it’s important to remember that the core CPI increased by 0.74% month-over-month (MoM). And if you exclude April’s rise of 0.92% (which was only one month ago), it was the highest MoM percentage increase since 1982.Please see below:The FED Has Become Independent Thought’s KryptoniteOn top of that, with the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI running extremely hot, the real federal funds rate is now at its second-lowest level ever . For context, the federal funds rate is the overnight lending rate set by the FOMC, while the real federal funds rate is adjusted for inflation by subtracting the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI.Please see below:So how can we explain investors’ lack of prudence?Well, as Bloomberg eloquently put it on Jun. 10… Source: BloombergThus, with the FED mesmerizing investors and keeping them under its spell, market participants have determined that it’s easier to follow the FED rather than fight it. However, when screaming fundamentals are dismissed as irrelevant, it often ends badly for those who fail to heed the warnings. To that point, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) – which will be released on Jun. 15 – will provide important clues on the inflationary trajectory, Nordea’s trend model signals that YoY CPI prints still have plenty of room to run.Please see below:To explain, the light blue line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI, while the dark blue line above tracks the projected YoY percentage change in Nordea’s trend model. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that April and May’s prints were accurately forecasted. More importantly, though, with the dark blue line signaling that the headline CPI should rise by more than 7% YoY in the coming months, investors’ faith in the FED will be put to the test over the medium term.Likewise, even though the FED has become independent thought’s kryptonite, if investors dismiss the scorching inflationary summer, they’ll likely incur deeper burns in the fall.To explain, I wrote on Jun. 10:With the Jun. 15/16 policy meeting not leaving enough time for FED officials to “communicate very early, very often what we’re going to do” (spoken by Philadelphia FED President Patrick Harker) and the Jul. 27/28 policy meeting excluding a summary of the FED’s economic projections, either the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (late August) or the Sep. 21/22 policy meeting is when the fireworks will likely begin.With the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealing on Jun. 8 that U.S. job openings surged to an all-time high of 9.286 million – and came in well above the consensus estimate of 8.300 million – the only thing depressing the U.S. labor market are ill-advised enhanced unemployment benefits.Please see below:To explain, the red line above tracks U.S. nonfarm payrolls, while the green line above tracks U.S. job openings. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the latter is often a strong predictor of the former. However, with enhanced unemployment benefits still in effect until mid-to-late June or early July (across ~25 states) – and nationwide until Sep. 6 (expected) – the shift likely won’t occur overnight. But once the benefits expire, U.S. nonfarm payrolls will likely spike in August (reflecting July’s data) and September (reflecting August’s data) and lift the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the USD Index in the process.The bottom line? With a potential spike in the Shelter CPI likely to coincide with a major resurgence in the U.S. labor force, September has all of the necessary ingredients to force the FED’s hand .The ECB Is Not Reducing AnythingOn top of that, I warned that prophecies of the European Central Bank (ECB) reducing its bond-buying program in June were much more semblance than substance.I wrote on Apr. 27 :Recent whispers of the ECB tapering its bond-buying program are extremely premature. With the European economy still drastically underperforming the U.S., it’s actually more likely that the ECB increases the pace of its bond-buying program.And after the ECB released its monetary policy decision on Jun. 10, what was clear before now is the reality.Please see below: Source: ECBIn addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the following during her press conference:"The U.S. economic situation and the Euro Area economic situation are very different stories. The two economies are at different points in the recovery cycle. ""Any discussion about exit from the PEPP would be premature, too early, and it will come in due course, but certainly, for the moment it is too early and premature – simple as that.""Any kind of transition, exit, whatever you call it, has not been discussed"And although the ECB increased its Eurozone GDP growth, as well as inflation expectations, and Lagarde even said that “there was [a] debate on the pace of the purchase, on some of the analytical aspects of the use of our instruments,” she reiterated: Source: ReutersThe bottom line?While the EUR/USD remains materially overvalued, the ECB’s policy is not the only fundamental data point that supports this thesis. Case in point: it was a trifecta for Germany (Europe’s largest economy) on Jun. 9, with imports, exports, and consequently the German trade balance, all missing economists’ consensus estimate. To explain, exports rose by 0.30% MoM versus 0.5% expected, imports fell by 1.7% MoM versus a decline of 1.1% expected and the trade balance came in at €15.9 billion versus €16.3 billion expected.Please see below:The S&P 500 Is Losing MomentumFinally, while it may not be visible on the surface, the S&P 500’s momentum continues to decelerate. Even though the U.S. equity benchmark followed the ‘ don’t fight the FED’ mantra to another all-time high on Jun. 10, optimism is waning. Case in point: while the YoY percentage change in the FED’s balance sheet (released on Jun. 10) was roughly flat this week, the YoY percentage change in the S&P 500 continues to move lower. And with a summertime soirée likely the last “hurrah!” for the S&P 500 and the FED’s balance sheet – with all signs pointing to the latter tightening in September – a move lower for both variables will likely occur over the medium term.Please see below:The red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the S&P 500, while the green line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the FED’s balance sheet. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that investors’ optimism often rises and falls with the pace of the FED’s asset purchases. To that point, the FED’s YoY rate of expansion of its balance sheet peaked (for good) during the third week of February and has been in free fall ever since. Similarly, the S&P 500’s YoY rate of expansion peaked during the third week of March and has declined substantially.The bottom line? With the weekly metric hitting a 2021 low on Jun. 3 and a reduction of the FED’s bond-buying program poised to push the YoY percentage change into negative territory in the coming months (again, likely in September), the S&P 500 is slowly running out of gas.In conclusion, the FED has mesmerized the investing public once again, and saving the day doesn’t even require the central bank to do anything anymore. However, with reality undefeated and a major regime shift likely to occur in September, there are only a few hours left until the clock strikes midnight. Moreover, with bond market imbalances at or near their all-time highs, the PMs will likely detest the forthcoming climax. Think about it: if the PMs can only muster tepid rallies when the fundamentals are historically (though synthetically) tilted in their favor, the price action could get ugly once the sanity finally prevails.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.06.2021 17:19
Inflation is back, and that’s usually depicted as good for gold. But is the yellow metal still a hedge against inflation, or has something changed?Inflation has returned. This is partly understandable. After all, during the Covid recession , consumers and businesses accumulated a lot of cash as their spending was reduced, while revenues were sustained by money transfers from the government. These funds are now entering the economy, which makes demand grow much faster than supply, thus boosting prices. After some time, supply may catch up, curbing inflation. However, there is an important risk that inflation will turn out to be higher and/or more permanent than many analysts believe.From the fundamental point of view, gold should benefit from higher inflation. But why? In theory, there are several channels by which inflation supports the yellow metal. First, the inflationary increase in the money supply makes all goods and services more expensive, including gold. Indeed, the scientific paper by Lucey and others finds a reliable long-run relationship between gold and the US money supply.Second, gold is a real, tangible and rare good with limited supply that cannot be increased quickly or at will. These features make gold a key element during the so-called flight into real values or into hard assets, which happens when inflation gets out of control. In other words, gold is the ultimate store of value which proved to hold its worth over time , unlike paper currencies that are subject to inflation and lose their value systematically.Third, inflation means the loss of purchasing power of the currency, so when the greenback depreciates quicker than its major peers, the dollar-denominated price of gold increases. Fourth, when inflation is unexpected or when the Fed remains behind the curve and doesn’t hike nominal interest rates , real interest rates decline, supporting gold prices.Fifth, high inflation increases economic uncertainty, which increases safe-haven demand for gold . In other words, an outbreak of inflation introduces some turbulences and leads to portfolio rebalancing, thus increasing gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier . During inflation, bonds underperform, so gold’s attractiveness increases.And last but definitely not least, gold is perceived as an inflation hedge . But is it really a good hedge against inflation? I analyzed this issue a few years ago – it would be nice to provide an update in light of more recent developments. So, let’s take a look at the chart below, which shows gold prices and CPI annual inflation rates.As one can see, the relationship between these two series is far from being perfect. Actually, the correlation coefficient is significantly below zero (-0.41), which means that the correlation is negative ! It means that although there are certain long-term trends – for example, gold rallied during stagflation in the 1970s and entered a bear market during the disinflation period in the 1980s and 1990s – there is no positive relationship between the CPI annual percentage change and the price of gold on a monthly basis.In other words, the data shows that gold may serve as an inflation hedge only in the long run , as gold indeed preserves its value over a long time (for example, in the period from 1895 to 1999, the real price of gold increased on average by 0.3% per year). It is a good choice for investors also when there is relatively high and accelerating inflation, usually accompanied by fears about the current state of the U.S. dollar and a lack of confidence in the Fed and the global monetary system based on fiat monies .However, let’s not draw conclusions too hastily. The chart below also presents the CPI and gold – but this time both series are year-on-year percentage changes (previously we had gold prices, now we have annual percentage changes in these prices).Have you noticed something? Yup, this time both series behave much more similarly . Indeed, the correlation coefficient is now positive (0.44). Hence, there is a positive relationship between gold and inflation although not always seen in absolute prices (but in changes in these prices), and not always seen in the CPI (as inflation has broader effects not limited only to consumer prices).Summing up the above analysis, it seems justified to claim that gold could benefit from the current elevated levels of inflation, especially if it turns out to be more lasting than commonly believed. It will also be good for gold if the Fed remains dovish and tolerant of inflation surpassing its target significantly.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.06.2021 17:20
S&P 500 shook off another record making inflation reading, and bond markets couldn‘t be happier. Volatility is back down, but the option traders turned cautious – that‘s fodder for the next upswing eventually. Many signs are pointing towards it – emerging markets rising with the dollar on the defensive, for example. Yes, the dollar with yields are key to watch now.S&P 500 was led higher by Nasdaq, which more than welcomed further retreat in yields. The tech led rally is here, and value while not down and out, is taking a breather. Especially financials don‘t like the move in yields, and we aren‘t at the 1.40% mark on 10-year Treasury bond yet. The summer lull in bonds is here, and my views on inflation getting permanently elevated, Fed‘s taper plays, bond yields retreat, inflation rearing its ugly head later this year before a growth scare strikes, can be found in the Latest Highlights and this week‘s articles amply discussed.So, stocks don‘t look like retreating, as the bond market momentum doesn‘t favor much downside, and tech would likely overpower that.Let‘s briefly check the reactions of other markets to yesterday‘s well telegraphed CPI springboard theme in stocks and precious metals.Gold moves better be viewed through the leading miners – these recovered from their prior underperformance. The yellow metal‘s swings best be viewed now through the optics of how much inflation is perceived as burning, declining TIP:TLT ratio notwithstanding. And the premarket moves throughout commodities mean that the marketplace isn‘t convinced about the Fed‘s seriousness in tackling inflation, justifying my earlier deep skepticism on the taper smoke and mirrors games.Crude oil chart is about decreasing upside momentum, and rising volume smacking of distribution as the lower knots show. I‘m looking for relatively shallow drop maximunm, and a correction in time rather than in price.Bitcoin is still challenging the declining resistance line connecting May and Jun rebound highs, and Ethereum isn‘t confirming Bitcoin‘s strength. The bears have an opportunity to strike, weekend including.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing was clearly driven by the Nasdaq surge, which is a defensive reaction to retreating yields taking their toll on high beta plays.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have underperformed on the day, but the picture doesn‘t uproot the risk-on trades in the least.Technology and ValueTechnology including $NYFANG was again in the driver‘s seat as value just can‘t take to the sharply retreating yields.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners rising is the most important feature, with gold reliably refusing its premarket decline coming in as second. Look for passing the baton between gold and silver alongside the inflationary winds affecting commodities.Silver isn‘t visibly outperforming, and the copper to 10-year yield ratio is increasingly putting a firm floor below precious metals declines.Crude OilCrude oil is hanging in the balance, but a sharp correction isn‘t favored.SummaryS&P 500 remains well positioned to survive and thrive in the inflation fears as it‘s too early these take a toll on P&L or bring about doubts about economic growth.Gold and silver are well positioned to reap the benefits of higher inflation and lower real rates, and the miners keep confirming.While ripe for a breather, crude oil would probably trade in tandem with other commodity inflation trades, so look for shallow pullbacks only.Bitcoin and Ethereum are stuck at the moment, and break higher above resistance or its rejection, would reveal the next short-term direction.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Inflation and SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.06.2021 06:18
Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.Figure 1 - SPDR S&P 500 ETF February 13, 2021, 8:45 PM - June 11, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comNotice the long “tail” or “wick” on the 8:30 AM candle above. The initial reaction was to sell the big CPI number, but it was quickly bought and ended up just being liquidity for the long/buy-side to gobble up and take the market higher. The retest that occurred hours later held up, and a new range was established for the remainder of the week.The S&P 500 closed at an all-time closing high level on Friday.What can this tell us? This market wants to move higher. Perhaps the higher inflation trickles into stocks as well; if used trucks cost more, couldn’t shares of stocks cost more too? It is plausible and also somewhat concerning. Higher inflation should not be construed as a bullish event, but as we know, markets can remain irrational - and for extended periods.Drilling down to the intraday candles, we can see the price action that occurred when the CPI data was released. The September S&P 500 Futures quickly moved lower on the release, but within minutes, snapped back and reversed to the upside. The price area was retested hours later (see below), and this area held up very well as support.Figure 2 - September Emini S&P 500 Futures June 9, 2021, 8:45 PM - June 11, 2021, 15-minute Candles Source tradingview.comSo, we have a bit of a conundrum on our hands in the US equity indices, in my opinion. We have the S&P 500 closing at all-time highs on Friday. The breakout (if you want to call it that) is a bit anemic as of now, and the other major indices have yet to close at all-time highs.The Week AheadThe major event this week: the FOMC meeting on June 15-16, with the Fed statement coming out on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. Prior to the Fed statement, we do have PPI and Retail Sales data coming out on Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. The retail sales data will give us some additional insight into the US consumer, and the PPI is known to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.While Retail Sales and PPI could provide a spat of movement in the indices, I am expecting a quiet week leading up to the Fed decision on Wednesday afternoon. This type of quiet trade has been the prevailing theme lately; last week was quiet leading up to CPI, and the week prior was quiet leading up to Non-Farm Payrolls. Both of those numbers were anything but bullish by the way, but here we are at all-time highs in the S&P 500.What is WorkingWhile a pullback in the S&P 500 to the 50-day moving average would catch my attention for a potential long entry, there seem to be better places to focus on at this moment. The US infrastructure plays have been playing out well, even with the back and forth negotiations by the two parties.ERTH Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF has been working well since we identified it for a long entry near its 200-day moving average in our May 10th publication , and it is still in the middle of its 2021 range.Figure 3 - Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF (ERTH) Daily Candles October 21, 2020 - June 11, 2021. Source stockcharts.comI think that this name has legs over the long run given the current US administration and the fact that ERTH seeks to track the investment results of MSCI Global Environment Select Index. You can read more about ERTH here. If we get a pullback, I will be monitoring the 50-day Moving average level. I do think there is still time to get on board this one, and the holding period could be extended. Remember to monitor the 50-day moving average level, as it changes each day!Now, for our premium subscribers, let's review the eight markets that we are covering, and see if anything changed upon the close of last week. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Walks On Thin Ice

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 14.06.2021 09:57
USDJPY enters supply areaThe US dollar struggles to bounce higher as high inflation seems temporary.The previous sell-off below the demand area near 109.80 has spoiled the recovery mood. The former support has turned into a resistance and so far capped the greenback’s advance.The pair is in horizontal consolidation while the RSI returns to neutral conditions.110.30 would be the next hurdle if the price action turns around. A fall below 109.20 could trigger another round of sell-off towards 108.60, a major support on the daily chart.NZDUSD capped by falling trendlineThe New Zealand dollar sees profit-taking in anticipation of this week’s FOMC.The pair has been in extended consolidation after it broke above the daily resistance at 0.7300. The descending trendline indicates increasing selling pressure.The kiwi has a well-established demand zone around 0.7115, a key support from the daily chart. As the RSI rises back from an oversold situation, buying interest could push the pair towards the trendline (0.7180).The ten-week-long rally may resume only if the price breaks out.US 30 consolidates gainsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rallies as the recovery goes in full swing in the US.The latest whipsaw barely dented investors’ faith. The index has recouped most of the losses from the May sell-off. Buyers have been building their stakes above the 30-day moving average (34350). 34750 is the key resistance intraday, its breach may send the price action to the peak at 35100.On the downside, a deeper correction would test the critical demand area between 33500 and 33700 from the daily chart.
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry

USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.06.2021 15:20
The precious metals seem to be ready for vacation deep dives, but all signs indicate that the USDX will stay on the side of the pool, perfectly dry.The USD Index (USDX)With the USD Index washing away its sins in recent weeks, the greenback has recorded five daily rallies of more than 0.40% since May 26. And with the up days growing stronger and the down days growing weaker, the change in the trend will be clear to more and more traders, which eventually would likely cause a shift in the sentiment. Case in point: while gold, silver and mining stocks are looking forward to their summer vacations (deep dives seem to be in the vacation plans, especially given today’s pre-market ~$20 decline in gold) , the USD Index has been hard at work rehabbing its reputation. And with the U.S. dollar easily the cleanest shirt among the currency basket of dirty laundry, the smell of fresh linen has begun to pique investors’ interest.For one, not only are the USD Index’s fundamentals trending up, but the technicals are also moving in the same direction. And after the USD Index closed visibly above its previous weekly close, the greenback’s verified breakout above its declining resistance line remains a source of optimism. Moreover, while the USD Index still remains below its dashed rising resistance line and its 50-day moving average, subtle signs signal that the dollar is slowly cleaning up its act.Please see below:Second, while the USD Index’s rally occurred slowly at first in 2016, the momentum gathered steam as sentiment shifted. And while we’re only in the first stage of the two-stage process, it’s important to remember that investors are forward-looking.Third, the USD Index recently bounced off of a triple (declining) bottom and prior instances were followed by significant rallies (the identical patterns formed in mid-and-late 2020 and are marked by the shaded green boxes above). During that time, the USD Index originally declined steadily before zigzag corrections culminated with new lows. However, with the third time being a charm, the third distinctive bottom was the final one.For context, the USDX sunk like a stone in July 2020, before moving back and forth while still declining in August. Similarly, in November 2020, the USDX fell from grace once again (there was one exception) before moving back and forth while still declining in December. More importantly, though, ever since the final days of March, we’ve seen the same thing all over again. After the USD Index lost its confidence in April, we saw back-and-forth movement with lower lows and lower highs in May. However, with the third distinctive low likely already achieved, the USD Index’s best days may lie ahead.Head & Shoulders Patterns AheadAnd what happened to gold, silver and mining stocks in the time of the two previous analogues?Well, in August, gold topped without waiting for USD’s final bottom – which is natural, given how extremely overbought it was at the time. Likewise, in early January gold topped (which was much more similar to the current situation given the preceding price action) when the USDX formed its third and final distinctive bottom.In addition, while the development is more of a wildcard at the moment, the USD Index might be in the early innings of forming an inverted head & shoulders pattern. For context, an inverted H&S pattern is a bullish development that if formed, could usher the USD Index to about 97-98. However, completing the right shoulder requires an upward breach of 93 (the blue line on the chart above), so at this point, it’s more of an indication than a confirmation.However, if we turn the pattern upside down, the Euro Index might be in the midst of forming a bearish H&S pattern . If you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that the symmetrical pattern has the current price action mirroring the summer of 2020. And while we’re still in the early innings of forming the right shoulder, three peaks were recorded during the second half of 2020 before the Euro Index eventually rolled over. Likewise, with a symmetrical setup that seems to already be in motion, the Euro Index may be heading down a similar path of historical ruin. In the second half of 2020, the decline was not that big, but it’s no wonder that this was the case as that was only the left shoulder of the pattern. Completion of the right shoulder, however, would imply another move lower, at least equal to the size of the head – to about the June 2020 lows or lower.Please see below:Moreover, with the USD Index’s triple bottom mirrored by a likely triple top in the Euro Index , last week’s decline actually ushered the Euro Index materially below the dashed resistance line of its monthly channel. And with the price action mirroring what we witnessed in mid-to-late 2020 – right before the Euro Index plunged – investors’ confidence could soon turn into fear.Furthermore, the completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign, and if the Euro Index reverses, it could weigh heavily on the precious metals over the medium term. That’s another point for the bearish price prediction for gold.The 2016 AnalogueAlso, foretelling another revival, the USD Index has hopped into the time machine and set the dial to 2016. With the flashback scrubbing the stains off of the USD Index’s 2016 downswing, Mr. Clean could be arriving at just the right time.As you can see on the above chart, what we saw this year is quite similar to what happened in 2016. If the analogy continues, the back-and-forth trading is likely to be followed by an upward acceleration. The trigger for it could be the rally back above the 50-day moving average and the rising dashed line. The confirmed breakout above both in 2016 resulted in sharper rallies in the USDX and much lower gold prices (gold declined about $200 between early October 2016 and its December 2016 lows).Finally, the USD Index’s long-term breakout also remains intact . And when we steady the binoculars and observe the currency landscape, the greenback’s recent weakness is largely inconsequential.Also, please note that the correlation between the USD Index and gold is now strongly negative (-0.93 over the last 10 days). The same thing happened in early January 2021 and in late July – August 2020; these were major tops in gold.The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is outperforming the Eurozone and the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index – the relative performance is what really matters .In conclusion, investors are well aware of the USD Index’s dirty laundry, and the euro’s squeaky-clean image is starting to show stains. Moreover, with the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) poised to come clean and scale back its asset purchases in September, the USD Index should shine over the medium term. More importantly, though, with gold, silver and mining stocks exhibiting strong negative relationships with the U.S. dollar, the greenback’s eventual shower could send all of the precious metals’ gains down the drain.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Why Inflation Trades Have Further to Run

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.06.2021 16:04
S&P 500 ran out of steam shortly after Friday‘s open, yet caught fire before the close. The sectoral disbalance driven by retreating yields went on, and tech remains still the engine of stock market growth – but look for the leadership to broaden into financials, industrials or energy as we go forward. Volatility made a new 2021 low while the put/call ratio has sharply risen to more neutral readings. Paring the bets is getting underway before this week‘s FOMC – the Fed is perceived to perhaps want to at least start debating taper, if not present the sketch of its seriously watered down shape. They‘ll make taper hints and noises at most, it would be much ado about nothing – the markets are just getting spooked now, most notably the dollar (having risen on the unreasonable expectation something palpable and material would come out of that – but remember, talk is cheap, and Jackson Hole is the more likely venue and time that would happen, with 2022 most probably being the year of taper).Another example of undue anticipatory reaction is Friday‘s gold weakness, in all likelihood to Thursday‘s Macron push to make G7 sell their gold to bail out Africa. Gold market appears taking it seriously, which wouldn‘t benefit the G7 populations during these times of still uneasy monetary activism left and right.Back to stocks – the 500-strong index increase was defensive in nature, with tech delivering the lion‘s share. Value is sputtering during the yields reprieve that I see lasting through the summer. Autumn, that would be another cup of tea – apart from the unyielding $CRB index, rising oil prices affecting sectors beyond transportation, and the job market heating up (hiring difficulties), the serene period in Treasuries would be over. Yes, that means I think the bond markets have it wrong with their sudden appreciation, and that equities and commodities are right not to tumble.Deflationary episode or a noticeably disinflationary one isn‘t in our future – the disconnect between inflation expectations expressed as TIP:TLT and RINF, is growing. Just as the experience on the ground. Even if we take a look at 2-year basis (May / Apr 2019 as a starting period to take out "low base argument“), we get per annum CPI for May 2021 at 2.55% and Apr 2021 at 2.23%. Hardly a deceleration, but a continuously building up inflation momentum when prior months are equally robustly examined.Inventories are down across many sectors beyond autos, and need to be replenished as economic activity isn‘t going down and parts of the world are reopening. That would help put upside pressure upon prices, even to the point of inflation surprise spikes – economic activity isn‘t moving down, and the inventory buildup would spill over into 2022.When I stated on Tuesday that inflation would be sold as being for our own good, it indeed is – remember that both the Fed and Treasury want higher inflation. One more sign to put the transitory argument at bay, and one more nail in the dollar‘s coffin. As if the heavy spending wasn‘t breaking the camel‘s back already – and no, the $6T boondoggle reshaping and adjourning doesn‘t count as making a difference.Gold is getting inordinarily spooked while neither miners nor silver nor commodities would call for that – Macron effect and taper fears in play. When I look at the key ratios, including copper to 10-year yield, the yellow metal‘s weakness is unjustified, especially as relates to silver. Keeping in mind the big picture, it‘s when the Fed moves, or declines to move as per market perceptions, that precious metals would benefit. The current on guard position in case they did the right thing and fought inflation, is misplaced. At the same time though, the miners to gold ratio had a third consecutive week of retreating – quite a consolidation waiting to be reversed.Crude oil knows no respite, and doesn‘t mind rising in spite of weaker oil index or XLE, the energy ETF. Part of its allure apart from the supply situation comes from the real assets drive, the unyielding $CRB index, and the rising economic activity. Corrections remain to be bought, and $68 remains a memory.Bitcoin has broken above the declining resistance line connecting May and Jun rebound highs, but Ethereum isn‘t thus far mirroring its relative strength. Both cryptos remain rather choppy, and the Saturday down, Sunday up trading shows that.On a different note, tomorrow there will be no regular analysis, only brief updates should the market conditions including retail sales data require that. I need to set aside serious time and give color to the important and beneficial negotiations about the future. Thank you for your support and understanding – I hope that one day would be enough. I have thus prepared a longer piece for today, and will be back in time well before the Fed with the regular daily report on Wednesday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing was once again clearly driven by the Nasdaq surge, which didn‘t look at the daily pause in yields.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have wavered, but given the rest of the credit markets‘ performance, the HYG close wasn‘t all too weak.Technology and ValueSelect technology segments apart from $NYFANG continued rising better than the heavyweights or merely pausing value stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners declined, but refused to lead gold to the downside. The yellow metal‘s decline is most probably the Macron effect and Fed fears result as the move in either real or nominal rates doesn‘t justify that in the least. But again, I think this Treasury rise would ultimately fail, and rates would be back to rising.Silver outperformance isn‘t stark as regards commodities, and the copper to 10-year yield ratio isn‘t flashing warning signs for the white metal. Once the uncertainty in the king of metals is removed (needless to say, no new flush of supply through the open market a la central bank sales decades ago, is what the gold market would welcome the most), the current consolidation can be resolved through another upswing.Bitcoin and EthereumA little mixed picture in cryptos where Bitcoin relative strength isn‘t confirmed by Ethereum‘s moves. The bulls haven‘t entirely reasserted themselves.SummaryS&P 500 remains well positioned to push higher unless value stocks panic over retreating yields again or to a greater degree than before. Nasdaq upside momentum is strong enough to cushion stock market downside at the moment, and credit markets aren‘t in a risk-off mode.My Wednesday‘s words about gold being more vulnerable than silver to a scared dump, came true – only the catalyst was different. Miners weren‘t spooked to such a degree on Friday though, meaning the gold storm might not be as serious as the mounting fears indicate.While ripe for a breather, crude oil once again didn‘t take one, but the oil index weakness (sideways consolidation) warrants short-term caution – the oil outlook though remains bullish.Bitcoin moves aren‘t yet mirrored at least equally strongly in Ethereum. While encourating gains, the bulls can‘t celebrate just yet.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Bitcoins’ actual value

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.06.2021 18:34
No hype lasts that long. What can stay this long is doubt, if not fear, about something new. Change is certainly something many are afraid about. You can touch Gold, build real estate, see land, and it all has history, but that history also includes in all tangible asset classes there to be times when it got taxed or seized.What we are facing now could be a larger cycle that one might intellectually grasp, but who does believe that we see times of hyperinflation and the dollar rendering worthless. Very few. Hope is a natural tendency of the human spirit to be trusted in at times of adversity.In our opinion, that is the only reason why Bitcoin is still so cheap. And herein lies the opportunity for each individual to still preserve their wealth and or create it.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Worthwhile a shot:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 14th, 2021Consequently, to our conviction that Bitcoin can not be thought away anymore, we took three low-risk entries after Bitcoins’ recent decline into the congestion range. We posted these entries in real-time  in our free Telegram channel. We took partial profits on all three trades to eliminate risk and by now have raised the stops to break even entry levels for the remainder of exposed capital.After news that Tanzania might join El Salvador in accepting Bitcoin as one of the main payment method methods, prices soared to break through the upper triangle resistance line. What was resistance has now become support. The most substantial supply zone to price is near the POC (point of control, most transaction volume at this price level).Another sign of strength is that at the last decline, prices only managed to go as far down at US$35,000, a far cry from previous US$33,000 levels, indicating strength.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Two bullish scenarios:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 14th, 2021Looking at the weekly chart, we can determine that Bitcoin now has cemented a nice double bottom slightly above US$30,000 (yellow line) after a strong down move. We find three high-volume nodes supporting price (green horizontal lines).Noteworthy as well is that the point of this reversal has happened right at the mean (white directional channel with blue dotted line). Consequently, we anticipate two scenarios (A, B) to be the most likely price behavior of the future. Should more fundamental data flow into the market supporting Bitcoins recently gained upward momentum, scenario A is expected to be found over the third quarter.If the bears would be temporarily successful, we anticipate them not driving prices lower than US$27,500. We would see price only briefly giving way to the downside to snap back up with vigor. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Up, up, and up:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 14th, 2021What always reveals the fundamental forces at play and the leading guidance for a trader’s choice of trading tools/systems are the larger time frames. Examining the monthly chart, we can see the strength and direction where Bitcoin is most likely to head. Price turning at the midpoint of the linear regression channel is no accident.We see a high likelihood for this month to end in a green candle and consequently for July as well.It doesn’t matter where you look; the opinions are always torn into two camps for Bitcoin. Recent attacks of Bitcoin not being green due to its energy consumption provided for much debate again. We are not taking sides. It again seems more principle-based to view from a larger perspective why people put numbers on value output ranges of energies merely based on an emotional basis. Electric cars and wind energy were fought at their time just as well.Bitcoins’ actual value:As investors, we never have a sure bet. We try to stack the odds in our favor, and with sensible money management produce in the trades, we engage in more profits on the winning trades versus the losing trades losses. Bitcoin is no different! Don’t bet the farm and pick low-risk entry points. We do not think it to be wise to have extreme opinions in either direction. Or in other words, any form of emotional engagement in the markets is typically not producing favorable results. What we are empathetic about though is, that doubting Bitcoin on a fundamental basis is simply being ignorant of a vehicle with proven facts. Engaging in this market has its rewards for sure. It might turn out to be one of the better long-term trades in challenging times. Bitcoins’ actual value is yet to be determined by a future no one knows, but its credibility is unquestioned.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

The ETF You Want for Sunny and (Potentially) Cloudy Days

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.06.2021 08:23
Are you getting frustrated waiting for a meaningful pullback in US equity ETFs? There have been pullbacks in some sectors if you know where to look.If you like to buy on pullbacks in bull markets (like me), you may have trouble swallowing some of the price levels and medium-term overbought technicals on many instruments right now.Digging deeper into the trenches, some areas have had meaningful pullbacks, and we are going to get into one ETF right now that is currently trading at/near key technical levels.Figure 1 - Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) August 21, 2020 - June 14, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comI like to find bullish short to medium-term technicals, and the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) just closed over its 50-day moving average yesterday. This technical action comes after a period of retracement and consolidation that dates back to the beginning of 2021. Its 52-week high close is $121.94, put in back on February 9, 2021.The TAN ETF strategy and top holdings can be viewed here .So, while everyone is still talking about inflation and the upcoming Fed decision, we can focus our attention on an ETF that has pulled back nicely over a four + month time period and is exhibiting some signs of bullish technical strength. Also, take note of the RSI above 50 (57) and the MACD poised to cross the zero line.We can see that June 14th's candle was a gap higher and a close above the 50-day moving average. More clarity can be obtained by viewing an intraday 15-minute chart:Figure 2 - Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) June 10, 2021 - June 14, 2021, 15 Minute Candles Source stooq.comThe gap-up volume and TAN ’s ability to stay above and close above its 50-day moving average could be a bullish signal.US Administration and Solar OutlookJust like some of the other markets that I am currently following, TAN seems to make sense given the current US administration and democratic congressional majority. In fact, just as I am writing this, Reuters published an article about first-quarter US solar installations soaring . I do wish that this article would come out later instead, but it is out now.Although there are some supply chain concerns in solar right now (think commodities), there ought to be many initiatives and subsidies put forth by the Biden administration in the coming years. Regardless of your personal opinion on solar vs. fossil fuels, the idea is to try to profit from economic conditions. TAN could be a great addition to holdings to get exposure from a sector that has already experienced a meaningful pullback; brought on partially by the buy the rumor, sell the fact type of trading action that we saw in TAN from November 2020 (US presidential election) and January 2021 (inauguration).Based on the technicals that we have covered above and the pullback/consolidation that we have seen in the medium-term in TAN , this seems like a potentially solid entry point area.For additional details on the US Solar Market, the SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) just released their Q2 2021 report. You can view it here . It contains numerous datasets, charts, and other data, including projected residential and commercial installation projections.Figure 3 - Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) April 14, 2008 - June 14, 2021, Weekly Candles Source stockcharts.comLet’s also take note that TAN has traded at these levels before. It traded north of $220 back in the Summer of 2008. Hint, hint: there was $4 per gallon retail gasoline in the US at that time. I think it is wise to know the long-term trading history of instruments that are covered.What could TAN do if additional solar subsidies are issued by the Biden administration and residential + commercial installations increase? Time will tell.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's look to pinpoint potential entry levels in TAN , and recap the eight other markets that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.06.2021 15:56
With the CPI annual inflation rate spiking 5% in May, gold could have gained a lot in response. However, it rallied only $20. Should we prepare for more?Whoa! Inflation soared 5% in May – quite a lot for a nonexistent (or transitory) phenomenon! But let’s start from the beginning. The CPI rose 0.6% in May, after increasing 0.8% in April. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, soared 0.7%, following a 0.9% jump in April. So, given that the pace of the monthly inflation rate decelerated, we shouldn’t worry about inflation, right? Well… we should.First of all, inflation was higher than expected , as the consensus forecast was a 0.4% increase. Inflation surprised pundits once again, but not me. Last month, I wrote in the Fundamental Gold Report that “Inflation escalated in April. In May, however, inflation could be softer, but it will remain relatively elevated, in my view” – and this is exactly what happened. However, the unexpected rise in inflation is positive news for gold, as such a surprise should decrease the real interest rates .Second, pundits cannot blame energy prices for this jump, as the energy index was flat. Apart from energy and medical care services, which decreased slightly, all index components increased last month. In particular, the index for used cars and trucks soared again (7.3%). Also, the indexes for new vehicles and apparel surged in May, which shows that inflationary pressure is broad-based .Last but definitely not least, the latest BLS report on inflation reveals that the overall CPI skyrocketed 5% for the 12 months ending May (before seasonal adjustment), followed by a 4.2% spike in April. For context, the annual inflation rate has been trending up every month since January, when the 12-month change was just 1.4%. Therefore, we’ve just seen the largest move since a 5.4% jump for the period ending in August 2008 , just one month before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers that triggered the global financial crisis and deflationary Great Recession .But that’s not all! The annual core CPI rate soared 3.8% last month after rising 3% in April, as the chart below shows. It was the fastest pace since June 1992. So, the Fed cannot by any manner of means blame higher inflation on food or energy prices.Supply disruptions are not a credible explanation either, as the inflation acceleration is broad-based. How likely would it be, that the production of virtually all goods and services would face supply bottlenecks at the same time and extent? Indeed, a significant boost in the broad money supply is a much more convenient explanation for widespread price increases.Implications for GoldWhat does accelerating inflation imply for the gold market? Well, on the one hand, higher inflation should be positive for the yellow metal , as it means a stronger demand for gold as an inflation hedge . Additionally, higher inflation could lower the real interest rates, also supporting gold prices. And indeed, the price of gold has risen from about $1,870 to $1,890 in a response to the inflation spike.On the other hand, some analysts point out that stronger inflation could be rather negative for the yellow metal , as the Fed would have to tighten its monetary policy , taper its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate to contain inflation. After all, the overall CPI annual rate is more than twice as high as the Fed’s target. Moreover, the mediocre gold’s reaction to the surge in inflation suggests that investors are worried about a normalization of the ultra-dovish monetary policy .However, the Fed has recently become more tolerant of higher inflation, and Powell is likely to continue claiming that inflation is merely transitory. Also, on Thursday, the European Central Bank held its regular monetary policy meeting and maintained its elevated flow of stimulus, even though recovery takes hold. And the Fed may do the same, i.e., nothing, tomorrow.Nevertheless, the relaxed stance of the ECB and the Fed could come out as incorrect. We have the economy operating above potential, with big fiscal injections along with a very easy monetary policy. Such a combination could bring us to an environment of higher and more lasting inflation, which could disrupt the market later in the future.After all, many indicators suggest that financial markets believe in the narrative of “transitory” inflation. But if inflation proves to be more permanent than expected, there could be some turmoil in the markets – and gold could benefit from it. Gold is not always a good inflation hedge, and it could suffer somewhat if the nominal interest rates increase; however, it should prosper if the real interest rates decline further.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

16 June 2021

Stock market news Stock market news 16.06.2021 11:16
SAVILLS REVEALS THE CITIES THAT MAY MIGRATE FASTER TO HYBRID WORKINGSavills has examined both employee-driven and occupier/employer-driven factors to assess which global cities may see a faster transition to hybrid working post Covid-19. From an office occupier perspective, New York, Paris, London, Berlin and Frankfurt may be primed for a faster transition to hybrid working, given comparatively high office costs, already flexible working practices and extended lockdowns, while less flexible working cultures in Mumbai, Shanghai and Ho Chi Minh City mean that any transition to hybrid working may be slower.As part of its 2021 global Impacts research programme, the international real estate advisor looked at metrics such as the size of people’s homes, broadband speeds and commute times, alongside employer/occupier-focused factors, such as the cost and efficiency of offices, workplace culture, and lease lengths to grade cities on their possible speed of migration to hybrid working. Large homes and long commutes make Los Angeles, for instance, ripe for hybrid working from an employee perspective, says Savills, though comparatively low office costs, long leases and a diversified economic base mean employer incentives to cut space may be lower than in some other cities. Smaller cities such as Lyon and Amsterdam, meanwhile, are likely to see a slower shift to hybrid working, given shorter commutes for employees and lower costs to office occupiers.Jeremy Bates, Head of EMEA Occupier Services at Savills, comments: “Transition to a hybrid workforce is the biggest challenge businesses are going to face in the next five years. Even if you’re in a city set to switch more slowly it’s likely going to be something you’ll have to manage, and given low office availability in many locations, it’s better to start looking sooner rather than later to find space that will work for you in a hybrid model. With more collaborative space and increased room per employee likely, even if you have fewer people in the office you’re likely to still need a similar quantum. But this space will need to deliver efficient hybrid working, which involves designing a balanced physical-digital ecosystem that effectively bridges the gap between remote and office-based workers in terms of experience, accessibility and reliability.”Savills Hybrid Working Index: Employee-driven factorsSource: Savills World ResearchPaul Tostevin, director, Savills World Research, adds: “Locations such as Paris, London, Berlin, Frankfurt and New York which have higher office rents and relatively flexible working practices could see firms examining a hybrid working strategy more rapidly than other cities. But this may be outweighed by longer lease lengths, slower home broadband speeds and – in some cases – smaller homes, which may mean employees themselves push for a return to the office. As Asian cities experienced much shorter lockdowns and some – notably in China – returned straight to full-time office working, most will be slowest to transition to hybrid working. Small dwelling sizes mean that employees also support working from the office.”Savills Hybrid Working Index: Employer-driven factors – Source: Savills World ResearchAccording to the report, Warsaw, the largest office market in Poland, positions roughly in the middle of the ranking. Factors which favours companies’ faster transition to the hybrid model include the length of standard lease terms and a certain degree of flexibility that was slowly implemented by companies even before the pandemic. On the other hand, factors that are slowing the transition process are internet speed in some locations and rental level, which is still competitive with Western Europe and creates conditions for all employees to be provided with physical/traditional workplace in the office. Jarosław Pilch, Head of Tenant Representation, office Agency, Savills Poland, says: “Remote work, especially in the home edition, is associated with a numerous challenges. Many people, when arranging their homes, did not arrange a place to work, especially one that is suitable for working in full-time for a long time. The introduction of a hybrid work model is a process whose pace will vary depending on country and the specificity of the industry in which a given company operates. Many employers in Poland have not yet decided how they want their work model to look like after the pandemic. The reasons for that, among others are the ongoing analysis of the expectations and experiences of employees, wating for the changes in the labour law, or the time needed for observations of the real estate market and exploring new opportunities that market currently creates for tenants.”-Ends -Notes to Editors: Impacts is Savills global thought leadership publication and research programme. This year, Impacts is centered around the theme of “Evolve”: Covid-19 led to many changes in how we use and view real estate, but many sectors were already evolving significantly in response to ongoing market, technological, social and environmental trends. Impacts 2021 puts these changes in historic context to consider what comes next. For further information, please contact: Paul Tostevin, Savills World Research Tel: +44 (0) 20 7016 3883Natalie Moorse, Savills UK press office Tel: +44 (0) 20 7075 2827Jan Zaworski, Savills Poland press office Tel: +48 666 363 302Founded in the UK in 1855, Savills is one of the world's leading property agents with 600 offices across the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services.Should you not wish to receive Savills press releases, please email us at: kontakt.rodo@savills.pl. Click here for our Privacy Policy.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

What’s Your Trade Ahead of the Fed? Wooden Opportunity?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.06.2021 11:26
US equity markets sold off a bit in Tuesday’s session ahead of today’s FOMC statement. What is your plan?Major US equity indices traded lower ahead of the Fed meeting, and the debate over growth versus value stocks continues. Is there any magic language or policy stance that can come out of today’s Fed meeting to provide clarity in this market?PPI data came out stronger than expected yesterday. This data adds more fuel to the inflationary theme, while Retail Sales were weak. The markets should have been lower from this data, and they were, albeit slightly.As the anticipation builds to today’s FOMC statement at 2:00 PM ET today and the subsequent press conference at 2:30 PM ET, it seems like a good time to revisit a market that we are following - lumber .If you have been following along and read the June 9th publication , you know that we are eyeballing the lumber markets for an ETF trade possibility. While the lumber market has been just insane to the upside in 2021, it has recently pulled back substantially. The question remains: are these higher lumber prices sustainable? If so, is there a way to participate via an ETF?While this may seem like an obscure sector or at least an underappreciated one, let’s take a look at the front-month lumber futures to get caught up on the most recent price action.Figure 1 - Random Length Lumber Futures Continuous Contract February 21, 2020 - June 15, 2021 Daily Source stooq.comFront-month lumber futures made a pandemic low of 251.50 on April 1, 2020. Its recent and all-time high is 1733.30, which was put in on May 10, 2021. Taking a 50% retracement of this move, we have a value of 992.40. Yesterday’s low in front-month lumber futures was 943.70 and a close of 1009.90. Yesterday’s trading was also on higher than average volume. It is important to note that it traded below the psychologically important level of 1000, through the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and then reversed intraday and closed higher. This kind of price action really gets me going.Let’s also illustrate this price action described above via weekly candlesticks:Figure 2 - LBS1! Random Length Lumber Futures Continuous Contract September 2019 - June 2021 Weekly Candles Source tradingview.comIsn’t that something? I wanted to illustrate this via the weekly candlesticks to add a little more clarity. The weekly candlestick that is being formed this week could be a sign of things to come. Now before we go any further:I strongly suggest against trading in Lumber Futures. They can be illiquid, and experience many limit up and limit down days. You could be stuck in a losing position and not be able to get out. The only traders in Lumber futures should be hedgers that are in the wood business or deep pocket institutional traders that have real money to burn. Futures trading entails unlimited risk. I am sure that many fortunes have been made, and many more have been lost during this insane lumber market. Being on the wrong side of a futures market like Lumber can be brutal.Lumber is a very thin contract and may only trade a few hundred contracts per day. But with such intriguing technicals, I want to circle back to an ETF that we covered in the June 9th publication : WOOD iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF.Figure 3 - iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD) Daily Candles November 10, 2020 - June 15, 2021. Source stockcharts.comSo, we see some interesting potential weekly candlestick formation in the Lumber futures and an interesting daily candle in WOOD. While the 2 instruments do not trade a perfect or near-perfect correlation, a correlation exists.I like the idea of getting long the WOOD ETF based on the action in the Lumber futures markets.While trying to catch a falling knife can be a precarious proposition, I view this as buying a pullback in a bull market. While we discussed certain levels in the June 9th publication , I would like to explore some different levels and a potential scaling/tranche entry strategy today.And, while the price of gold certainly hasn’t caught an inflation bid (at least not yet), this could be a wooden opportunity. Maybe a wooden opportunity is the new golden opportunity.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's look to pinpoint potential entry levels in WOOD , and recap the eight other markets that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Inflation Tipping Point

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.06.2021 15:45
S&P 500 hasn‘t extended Monday‘s gains, continuing to trade in a cautious, tight range. Not that it would be driven by Treasury yields that much on a daily basis – the tech breather was one day delayed, but still didn‘t erase Monday‘s gains in full. Yes, Nasdaq didn‘t reverse, and I‘m looking for it to reassert its strength in spite of having approached the rising resistance line connecting the Feb and Apr highs.Sure, a little rotation later today wouldn‘t be unimaginable as I am looking for the Fed to largely bypass bringing up taper, which would mean continued ostrich pose when faced with rising inflation (did you see yesterday‘s PPI beating expectations? Another confirmation of my Monday‘s points of inflation being baked in the cake, and in spite of all the transitory rhetoric, working its way through the system as reliably as water through Titanic‘s compartments. The coming Fed disappointment in doing the right thing (fighting inflation even as late as it is now before the expectations become obviously unanchored, eventually turning velocity of money around).Let‘s check my Monday‘s assumptions and where we stand in the run up to today‘s FOMC:(…) Paring the bets is getting underway before this week‘s FOMC – the Fed is perceived to perhaps want to at least start debating taper, if not present the sketch of its seriously watered down shape. They‘ll make taper hints and noises at most, it would be much ado about nothing – the markets are just getting spooked now, most notably the dollar (having risen on the unreasonable expectation something palpable and material would come out of that – but remember, talk is cheap, and Jackson Hole is the more likely venue and time that would happen, with 2022 most probably being the year of taper).The yields reprieve … I see lasting through the summer. Autumn, that would be another cup of tea – apart from the unyielding $CRB index, rising oil prices affecting sectors beyond transportation, and the job market heating up (hiring difficulties), the serene period in Treasuries would be over. Yes, that means I think the bond markets have it wrong with their sudden appreciation, and that equities and commodities are right not to tumble.Deflationary episode or a noticeably disinflationary one isn‘t in our future – the disconnect between inflationary expectations expressed as TIP:TLT and RINF, is growing. Just as the experience on the ground. Even if we take a look at 2-year basis (May / Apr 2019 as a starting period to take out "low base argument“), we get per annum CPI for May 2021 at 2.55% and Apr 2021 at 2.23%. Hardly a deceleration, but a continuously building up inflation momentum when prior months are equally robustly examined.Inventories are down across many sectors beyond autos, and need to be replenished as economic activity isn‘t going down and parts of the world are reopening. That would help put upside pressure upon prices, even to the point of inflation surprise spikes – economic activity isn‘t moving down, and the inventory buildup would spill over into 2022.When I stated on [prior] Tuesday that inflation would be sold as being for our own good, it indeed is – remember that both the Fed and Treasury want higher inflation.So, the S&P 500 won‘t be broken by today‘s Fed moves, and tech would withstand the move in yields. The sectoral leadership would broaden to include e.g. financials, industrials and energy as the cyclical trades are far from over. Volatility has risen a little over these tow days, and option traders are raising their guard again, but today‘s FOMC would largely turn out to be a non-event – in stocks.The dollar would get frightened, but the 2021 lows have held in May, and are holding up in June. Unless they break (I‘m not looking for that to happen this month), the greenback is likely rangebound for now. It would be during autumn when both the continuous rise in inflation and the European recovery getting more broadly recognized and established, would start biting the world reserve currency more again.Gold has inordinarily suffered through the taper fears, and silver remains the stronger metal. Obviously, as I am not looking for the inflation trades to roll over – quite to the contrary, I expect them to grow in strength, which extends to yesterday‘s bloodbath in copper too. Just like I called for springboard price action before the CPI release on Thursday, I am calling for gold to welcome the Fed‘s inaction, leading to break through the $1,900 mark. Probably not today, but tomorrow‘s action should be pretty bullish – you know what they say about the first moves on key event days, being the false ones…Anyway, inflation expectations seem to be getting it right again, in rising back above the April lows. The copper to 10-year yield ratio has been beaten down badly, and both fundamentals and technicals are arrayed behind the red metal, which would positively reflect upon silver too. And miners, they‘re likely to get their act together alongside gold.Crude oil remains the reliable commodity star, refusing to yield much ground at all. And since the oil index confirms its yesterday‘s strength, buying the dips in expectation of more gains, is the way to go.Bitcoin closed for a second day above the declining resistance line connecting May and Jun rebound highs, peeking above 41,000. Its current move to 39,000 represents an opportunity to join in on the long side, as both the daily and weekly chart look incresingly bullish, in accumulation. Ethereum is lagging a little at the moment, but the base ushering return of its outperformance, is getting long in the tooth. I see that not animal spirits of an outrageously bullish variant, but bullish spirits climbing the wall of worry, are returning to the crypto space.That was yet another long daily analysis, which won‘t likely need much updating post the Fed. Some throw off moves in the opposite direction of the real move, are to be expected, and barring a needed change in open positions, I will be covering the very short-term reactions and takeaways on Twitter. It means that in all likelihood tomorrow, and surely on Friday, there will be no regular analysis, only brief updates should changed market conditions require that. The unfolding important and beneficial negotiations about the future require that. Thank you for your support and understanding – Monday 21st marks the return to usual programming during the next week.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 downswing was led by Nasdaq yesterday, but is nothing more than a daily fluctuation – gains for the 500-strong index are probably nearer than they are for tech, but it‘s a question of relatively short time for both to rise in tandem once again.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds went through a little correction but overall, the corporate credit markets are standing on firmer ground than the long-dated Treasuries.Technology and ValueTechnology was weighed down by $NYFANG as value continued its shallow basing. That‘s a picture of daily caution overall, as high beta plays surely aren‘t dumped en masse. As a sidenote, the Russell 2000 continues holding up well, and that‘s constructive.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners are more resilient in their decline than gold, which increases odds of a sharp turnaround in the yellow metal next.Silver has been and is likely to outperform gold, and the washout in the copper to 10-year yield ratio highlights the excessive nature of both moves – I‘m looking for copper to rebound, which would have greater effect upon silver than gold.Crude OilCrude oil offers one long, drawn out upswing with precious few and less than shallow interruptions. It seems that only a serious short-term blow to (hesitation in) the bullish commodities trade, reopenings and economic activity rising environment, would make black gold decline somewhat.SummaryS&P 500 remains well positioned to shake off the inflation worries over the Fed doing nothing. Inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to dent P&Ls, and brighter days for both the 500-strong index and Nasdaq, are ahead.Gold is likely to recover strongly today, but would be outperformed by silver – reliably. Miners won‘t stand aside as the yellow metal takes on $1,900 again.The breather in crude oil is looking once again to be deferred. Pullback are to be bought (the oil index confirms), and the oil outlook remains bullish.Bitcoin and Ethereum are in accumulation mode and the bears look to have run out of time – look for today‘s downswing to be decisively invalidated over the coming week.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Fed Dot Plot Changes. US Equities Lower Post-FOMC Statement

Fed Dot Plot Changes. US Equities Lower Post-FOMC Statement

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.06.2021 03:47
Is the Fed moving too quickly? Can the equity markets handle a Fed taper without the tantrum? What about inflation? Yesterday’s FOMC statement creates more questions than answers.So, we now know that the Fed expects to hike interest rates in 2023.That could be ok. However, there was some contradictory language yesterday surrounding inflation. Is it transitory in the eyes of the Fed, or is it something more? Yesterday’s press conference seemed to play both sides of this coin, and stocks sold off on the uncertainty.That’s ok too.In reality, the selloff wasn’t too bad, with the $SPX losing 0.54%; and the $VIX rising by 6.64% on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year yield $TNX tacked on 4.67% and finished yesterday’s session at a 1.568% yield. There was a pocket of strength in financial names and a few select market sectors. However, it makes me wonder, will asset managers be taking a different view on equities going forward? 2023 is a long time from now, but the idea of the punch bowl being taken away combined with an uncertain inflationary environment could paint a different picture going forward. We just don’t know yet.Fortunately, some of the ETFs that we have been following fared well on Wednesday. Strength surfaced in solar and green names, which shows that we are on the right path, as capital had to make its way into something other than cash, financials, and volatility yesterday.Figure 1 - SPDR S&P 500 ETF February 17, 2021 - June 16, 2021, Daily Source stockcharts.comSo, even though it seemed like the sky was falling if you were watching business news coverage after the Fed statement, it was just a pedestrian down day on decent down volume. For SPY traders that have been waiting for a pullback, there could be an opportunity in the cards soon; if we get some follow-through selling. However, I personally favor the IWM at this time, as discussed thoroughly in the May 27th publication.Turning bearish of an event like today usually turns out to be the wrong move, in my experience. So what, rates will go up in 2023. They have to go up at some point; there is plenty of warning and plenty of time between now and then. Buying the pullback would still be the prudent move based on probabilities (it is still a bull market).Speaking of the IWM , it fared better than the SPY in Tuesday’s session, giving up only 0.21%. It could be due to the reconstitution theme that we have been discussing.Figure 2 - iShares Russell 2000 ETF December 29, 2020 - June 16, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThat is a pretty healthy daily candle for the type of session that the major indices experienced on Wednesday.So, keeping the above in mind, is it really prudent to suddenly get bearish on the indices based on the Fed guidance towards rate hikes in 2023? Probably not. At least not today, anyway. Bull markets like this don’t just go out with a whimper on most occasions. Let’s see how things transpire across the major indices once the new Fed guidance is digested by market participants.Now, for more bearish folks, I’d like to turn our attention to the IWM/SPY ratio that we discussed in our May 27th publication surrounding the Russell 2000 reconstitution trade.Figure 3 - IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF / SPY S&P 500 ETF Ratio August 27, 2020 - May 26, 2021. Source tradingview.comWhile the spread hasn’t moved too much to the upside since May 26th, it has tacked on a penny, moving from 0.53 to 0.54. Percentage-wise, there is nothing wrong with that, and this is a theme that could continue to work through June 28th. This trade is long the IWM and short the SPY .While it may be too early to tell how the broader markets will react to the Fed’s change in stance, it is also not necessarily a time to make rash decisions. Looking for pullbacks when more emotional traders decide to short the market could be a good idea. For now, we will see how Asia and Europe digest the message of the Fed in the overnight session followed by another US trading session. Time will give us more clues regarding the market’s interpretation of the Fed.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's look at what was working, even in yesterday’s down session ( a few of the ETFs we have been analyzing were green on the day ). There are also more buy idea levels that could be triggered soon. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Silver with a turbo

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.06.2021 13:36
Recent trading sessions have driven Silver and Gold to lower levels. Still, Silver already shows relative strength within the precious metal sector. As a result, we might witness one of the last cheap points for adding to one’s physical silver holdings.Gold/Silver-Ratio, Monthly Chart, How much?Gold/Silver-Ratio, monthly chart as of June 17th, 2021.The Gold/Silver-ratio can help identify relative strength/relative weakness relationships between the two metals. Consequently, it is mighty helpful to guestimate which of the ones is moving first. Furthermore, one can time one’s trade placements. In addition, it is a barometer of the overall larger picture for long-term assessments from a fundamental perspective.A look at the monthly Gold/Silver-ratio shows that Silver is pushing against a support level, which, if breaking, could lead to a two-legged move, adding a 50% turbo boost to silver prices in relation to Gold (red arrows down).  Gold/Silver-Ratio, Weekly Chart, Trending down:Gold/Silver-Ratio, weekly chart as of June 17th, 2021.Now zooming in to the weekly time frame, we can see that the ratio is trending down. Consequently, Silver is catching up with Gold. Typically, once the ratio price meets the upper red regression line (yellow circles), it consequently declines.Trading in a triangle would mean that a lower white support line break could initiate a more volatile downward movement. Consequently, this would represent added turbo fuel to a more sustainable Silver upward movement.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Think long term:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 17th, 2021.Looking at the isolated silver price from a long-term perspective (monthly chart), we can clearly see the bullish consensus (bullish triangle in white lines). Moreover, the thick volume supply zone between US$22 to US$25 suggests that reaching US$20 once again has a much lower probability.Silver with a turbo:Your typical weekly market newsletter sounds something like: “Maybe up, but it could also be sideways and down is also an option”—a protective means never to be wrong for the author. More rarely, you will find extreme opinions which give a doomsday picture to hope five or ten years later, a market crash gets the author noticed, and if not, no one remembers what was said 5-10 years ago. Nevertheless, there are market wizards. Decades of track records supporting sound market analysis. Stanley Druckenmiller is such a genius with 30 years in a row producing an average of more than 30% profits return per year on his client’s money. More impressively, his worst year is still a double-digit number. When we heard him recently stating that the dollar would lose within 15 years its status as a leading currency globally, the hypothesis that motivated us nearly two years ago, starting as a permabull in our publications, felt confirmed. Another turbo in play. It is these puzzle pieces more and more now coming together that support our firm belief that inter-market relationships paint a picture where Silver could become the predominant shade of a futuristic picture of wealth preservation. In this context, we are aggressive buyers here for physical Silver in this temporary price dip.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 17th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.06.2021 15:59
The US GDP has already recovered from the pandemic recession. What’s next for the economy and the gold market?Ladies and Gentlemen, the economic crisis has ended. Actually, not only is the recession over but so is the recovery! This is at least what the recent GDP readings are indicating. As the chart below shows, the US nominal GDP has already jumped above the pre-pandemic level . The real GDP, which takes inflation into account, remained in the first quarter of 2021 below the size of the economy seen at the end of 2019, but it will likely surpass this level in the second quarter of the year.As one can see in the chart below, in terms of GDP growth, the situation is a bit worse, as the annual percentage changes are still below the pre-epidemic level . However, this should change in the second quarter of 2021 when the growth pace is likely to peak amid base effect and reopening of the economy.So, the question is: what’s next? Will the economic boom become well-established or will we see a lot of volatility or even new slumps? Given the recent flux of disappointing high-frequency indicators that fell considerably short of expectations (just think about April’s nonfarm payrolls ), the question is very relevant.Well, there are many threats to growth , that’s for sure. The first is, of course, the ever-evolving coronavirus and its new variants. However, judging by preliminary evidence, the vaccines should remain effective, allowing economies to function freely.The second obvious danger is clearly the economy overheating and higher inflation . The Fed and the Congress injected a lot of liquidity into the economy although it would recover if it was left to its own devices thanks to the rollout of vaccinations and easing lockdowns. So, much of government funds arrived just when the economy practically recovered, which is a recipe for higher prices and inflation-related turbulences in the financial markets.Third, the increase in debt – both private and public – makes the global economy more fragile. Given the level of indebtedness, even small increases in real interest rates would be dangerous. They would increase the costs of servicing debts for the governments and could hit the asset prices. The fact that the Fed will be under great pressure to remain very dovish is, of course, positive for gold prices . Even if we see some effort to normalize the monetary policy , interest rates and the Fed’s balance sheet will never return to the pre-recession levels.Last but not least, there is a threat of financial crisis . Many people are worried that there is a bubble in the stock market (and in other markets as well, such as the cryptocurrency market). Indeed, the equities have been reaching new peaks and the valuations are elevated. The margin debt has also jumped. Not surprisingly, the relative frequency of Google searches for the “stock market bubble” has recently risen (just as for the word “inflation”).Even the Fed in its latest Financial Stability Report expressed some concerns. This is what the Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in a statement linked to the report :Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising. Valuations across a range of asset classes have continued to rise from levels that were already elevated late last year. Equity indices are setting new highs, equity prices relative to forecasts of earnings are near the top of their historical distribution, and the appetite for risk has increased broadly, as the "meme stock" episode demonstrated. Corporate bond markets are also seeing elevated risk appetite, and the spreads of lower quality speculative-grade bonds relative to Treasury yields are among the tightest we have seen historically. The combination of stretched valuations with very high levels of corporate indebtedness bear watching because of the potential to amplify the effects of a re-pricing event.To sum up, the US economy has already recovered from the coronavirus recession, which is bad for safe-haven assets such as gold , as the yellow metal doesn’t like economic expansions. However, there are important threats to sustainable economic growth, which should support the price of gold.Actually, there is still room for gold to rally further . This is because we are in an inflationary phase of the economic expansion (this boom will be more inflationary than the post- Great Recession period), and all the money created during the pandemic has flowed into the asset markets, pushing their prices into elevated levels not necessarily justified by fundamentals (just think about Dogecoin). Gold could benefit from such a bubble, as well as from an inflationary and hot environment. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.06.2021 17:02
Gold declined yesterday, or I should say, it rushed down at breakneck speed. And while it might have been a surprise for some, it wasn’t for me.However, we should stay alert to any possible changes, as no market moves in a straight line. Tread carefully.On a side note, while I didn’t check it myself (well, it’s impossible to read every article out there), based on the correspondence I’m receiving, it appears I’ve been the only one of the more popular authors to be actually bearish on gold before the start of this week. Please keep that in mind, along with me saying that yesterday’s decline is just the beginning, even though a short-term correction might start soon. Having that in mind, let’s discuss what the Fed did (and what it didn’t do) in greater detail.Look What You DidWith the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) reverse-repo nightmare frightening the liquidity out of the system, I highlighted on Jun. 17 that the FED raised the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) from 0.10% to 0.15%.I wrote:The FED hopes that by offering a higher interest rate that it will deter counterparties from participating in the reverse repo transactions. However, whether it will or whether it won’t is not important. The headline is that the FED is draining liquidity from the system and increasing the IOER is another sign that the U.S. federal funds rate could soon seek higher ground.Please see below:To explain, the red line above tracks the U.S. federal funds rate, while the green line above tracks the IOER. If you analyze the behavior, you can see that the two have a rather close connection. And while we don’t expect the FED to raise interest rates anytime soon, officials’ words, actions and the macroeconomic data signal that the taper is likely coming in September.And in an ironic twist, while the question of whether it will or whether it won’t seemed reasonable at the time, the tsunami of reverse repurchase agreements on Jun. 17 signal that 0.15% just isn’t going to cut it. Case in point: while the FED hoped that the five-basis-point olive branch would calm institutions’ nerves, a record $756 billion in excess liquidly was shipped to the FED on Jun. 17 . For context, it was nearly $235 billion more than the daily amount recorded on Jun. 16.Please see below:To explain the significance, I wrote previously:A reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the FED in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the FED at an alarming rate.The green line above tracks the daily reverse repo transactions executed by the FED, while the red line above tracks the U.S. federal funds rate. Moreover, notice what happened the last time reverse repos moved above 400 billion? If you focus your attention on the red line, you can see that after the $400 billion level was breached in December 2015, the FED’s rate-hike cycle began. Thus, with current inflation dwarfing 2015 levels and U.S. banks practically throwing cash at the FED, is this time really different?Furthermore, I noted on Jun. 17 that the FED’s latest ‘dot plot’ was a hawkish shift that market participants were not expecting.I wrote:The perceived probability of a rate hike by the end of 2022 sunk to a 2021 low on Jun. 12. However, after the FED’s material about-face on Jun. 16, I’m sure these positions have been recalibrated.Please see below:And as if the chart above had been inverted, the perceived probability of a rate hike by the end of 2022 has now surged to more than 90%.The Death Toll of June 17thIn addition, while I’ve been warning for months that the bond market’s fury would eventually upend the PMs, not only has the FED’s inflationary misstep rattled the financial markets, but the U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) jumped to 3.25% on Jun. 17.Please see below: Source: Mortgage News DailyFurthermore, please read what Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily, had to say:“Markets were somewhat surprised by the Fed's rate hike outlook. Granted, the Fed Funds Rate (the thing the Fed would actually be hiking) doesn't control mortgage rates, but the outlook speaks to how quickly the Fed would need to dial back its bond buying programs (aka "tapering"). Those programs definitely help keep rates low. The sooner the Fed begins tapering, the sooner mortgage rates will see some upward pressure .”To that point, with tapering prophecies officially morphing from the minority into the consensus, the PMs weren’t the only commodities sent to slaughter on Jun. 17. For example, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) plunged by 2.37% as the inflationary unwind spread. For context, the S&P GSCI contains 24 commodities from all sectors: six energy products, five industrial metals, eight agricultural products, three livestock products and two precious metals.Exacerbating the selling pressure, China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced on Jun. 17 that it would release its copper, aluminum and zinc supplies “in the near future” in a bid to contain the inflationary surge that’s plaguing the region. As a result, if the psychological forces that led to the surge in cost-push inflation come undone, the USD Index could move from the outhouse to the penthouse.To explain, I wrote on Apr. 27:Why is the behavior of the S&P GSCI so important? Well, if you analyze the chart below, you can see that the S&P GSCI’s pain is often the USD Index’s gain.To explain, the red line above tracks the USD Index, while the green line above tracks the inverted S&P GSCI. For context, inverted means that the S&P GSCI’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising green line represents a falling S&P GSCI, while a falling green line represents a rising S&P GSCI. More importantly, though, since 2010, it’s been a near splitting image.Inflation Is Still ThereIn the meantime, though, inflationary pressures are far from contained. And while the S&P GSCI’s plight would be a boon for the USD Index, the greenback still has plenty of other bullets in its chamber. Case in point: with the FED poised to taper in September and investors underpricing the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy, VANDA Research’s latest FX Outlook signals that over-optimism abroad could lead to a material re-rating over the summer.Please see below:To explain, the chart on the right depicts investors’ expectations of economic strength across various regions. If you analyze the second (CAD) and the third (GBP) bars from the right, you can see that positioning is more optimistic than the economic growth that’s likely to materialize. Conversely, if you analyze the first bar (USD) from the left, you can see that positioning is more pessimistic than the economic growth that’s likely to materialize. As a result, with U.S. GDP growth poised to outperform the U.K., Canada, and the Eurozone, an upward re-rating of the USD Index could intensify the PMs selling pressure over the medium term.On top of that, while the inflation story is far from over (and will pressure the FED to taper in September), the Philadelphia FED released its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey on Jun. 17. And while manufacturing activity dipped in June, “the diffusion index for future general activity increased 17 points from its May reading, reaching 69.2, its highest level in nearly 30 years .”In addition, “the employment index increased 11 points, recovering its losses from last month,” and “the future employment index rose 2 points … [as] over 59 percent of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months, compared with only 5% that anticipates employment declines.” For context, employment is extremely important because a strengthening U.S. labor market will likely put the final nail in QE’s coffin.But saving the best for last:“The prices paid diffusion index rose for the second consecutive month, 4 points to 80.7, its highest reading since June 1979 . The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (82 percent) was higher than the percentage reporting decreases (1 percent). The current prices received index rose for the fourth consecutive month, moving up 9 points to 49.7, its highest reading since October 1980 .”Please see below: Source: Philadelphia FEDInvestment Clock Is TickingAlso, signaling that QE is living on borrowed time, Bank of America’s ‘Investment Clock’ is ticking toward a bear flattener in the second half of 2021. For context, the term implies that short-term interest rates will rise at a faster pace than long-term interest rates and result in a ‘flattening’ of the U.S. yield curve.Please see below:To explain, the circular reference above depicts the appropriate positioning during various stages of the economic cycle. If you focus your attention on the red box, you can see that BofA forecasts higher interest rates and lower earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies during the back half of the year.As further evidence, not only is the FED’s faucet likely to creak in the coming months, but fiscal stimulus may be nearing the dry season as well.Please see below:To explain, the blue bars above track the U.S. budget deficit as a percentage of the GDP. If you analyze the red circle on the right side of the chart, you can see that coronavirus-induced spending was only superseded by World War Two. Moreover, with the law of gravity implying that ‘what goes up must come down,’ the forthcoming infrastructure package could be investors’ final fiscal withdrawal.The Housing MarketLast but not least, while the S&P 500 has remained relatively upbeat in recent days, weakness in the U.S. housing market could shift the narrative over the medium term.Please see below:To explain, the red line above tracks the S&P 500, while the green line above tracks U.S. private building permits (released on Jun. 16). If you analyze the arrows, you can see that the former nearly always rolls over in advance of the latter . For context, the S&P 500 initially peaked before building permits in 2018 and alongside in 2015. However, in 2018, when the S&P 500 recovered and continued its ascent – while building permits did not – the U.S. equity benchmark suffered a roughly 20% drawdown. Thus, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that building permits peaked in January and have declined significantly. And if history is any indication, the S&P 500 will eventually follow suit.In conclusion, the PMs imploded on Jun. 17, as taper trepidation and the USD Index’s sharp re-rating dropped the guillotine on the metals. And with the FED’s latest ‘dot plot’ akin to bullet holes in the PMs, the walking wounded is still far from a recovery. With inflation surging and the FED likely to become even more hawkish in the coming months, the cycle has materially shifted from the goldilocks environment that the metals once enjoyed. And with the two-day price action likely the opening act of a much larger play, the PMs could be waiting months for another round of applause.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

FOMC Announced Two Rate Hikes in 2023. Gold Didn’t Like It!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.06.2021 17:47
The newest Fed’s statement and dot-plot indicated a much more hawkish tone among the FOMC members than the markets expected, and gold dropped.On Wednesday (June 16, 2021), the FOMC has published its newest statement on monetary policy . The statement was barely changed. The main alteration is that the Fed has ceased saying that “the pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world”. Furthermore, with the CPI annual rate jumping to 5% in May, the US central bank acknowledged that inflation is not any longer “running persistently below this longer-run goal”. Hence, both modifications are slightly hawkish , as the Fed noticed an improvement in the epidemiological situation, as well as higher inflation. Bad news for gold.However, the statement was only slightly changed, so the investors focused more on the accompanying dot-plot and Powell’s press conference instead. According to the fresh economic projections , the Fed forecasts higher GDP growth and higher inflation this year, as the table below shows.As one can see, the FOMC expects that the GDP will soar 7% in 2021, compared to a 6.5% rise expected in March. They also assume that the pace of economic growth will be slightly higher in 2023. Meanwhile, the Fed officials believe now that the PCE inflation (core PCE) will jump to 3.4% (3%) this year , compared to 2.4% (2.2%) seen in March. They also forecast a slightly lower unemployment rate in 2022.But the most impactful change occurred in the expected path of the federal funds rate . The FOMC members now forecast that the US policy rate will be 0.6% at the end of 2023, an important upward change from 0.1% projected in March. In other words, the US central bankers believe that two interest rate hikes will be appropriate in 2023 . It means that they started to think about tapering, which is fundamentally negative for gold prices.Indeed, Powell said during his post-meeting press conference that we can “think of this meeting that we had as the talking about talking about meeting [at which the Fed will start tapering], if you like”.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent FOMC meeting imply for the gold market? Well, the Fed struck again. As a result, the price of gold plunged. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix slid from about $1,865 on Tuesday to $1779 on Thursday.The reason is simple : the fresh dot-plot shows that a majority of the Fed officials currently forecasts two quarter-point rate hikes in 2023 . 13 of 18 FOMC members see some interest rate increases in 2023 compared to just 7 members in March. Moreover, 7 participants now predict some upward moves next year. These changes lifted market expectations of future interest rates . In consequence, the bond yields increased, which raised the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding bullion . Furthermore, the more hawkish stance of the Fed strengthened the US dollar, creating downward pressure on gold prices. In other words, the new economic outlook revealed some hawks among the FOMC members and that there might be less tolerance toward higher inflation than previously thought.However, the bullish case for gold is not over yet . After all, the Fed maintained its very accommodative monetary policy, and it will not hike interest rates this year and probably not also in 2022. Additionally, the dot-plot is not the official projection of the future path of the federal funds rate, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. A lot may happen by 2023. Also, the Fed leadership seems to be more dovish than many of the regional Fed presidents.Last of all, Powell repeated that inflation is merely transitory. But why hike interest rates if inflation is merely transitory and federal debt is ballooning? Hence, it might be the case that the Fed is testing the markets. High inflation is still with us, and it may be more lasting than the Fed believes. Even with two interest rate hikes, the real interest rates should stay negative.Having said that, the hawkish Fed’s statement and hawkish economic projections are fundamentally negative for the yellow metal in the medium term . The chances of a replay of 2013 have increased. It seems that gold may struggle without an inflationary turmoil, stagflation , the dovish counter-strike at the Fed, or a debt crisis .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

What a Welcome US Equity Market Pullback! Fading Emotion

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.06.2021 13:51
Are you as glad to see the pullback in the US equity indices as I am? Yes, rates are going up faster. Inflation has been acknowledged at a higher rate by the Fed. So what?!It was no secret that rates could not remain near-zero forever. It also is no secret that inflation has been real in the US . If you live in the US, you already know this from your day-to-day life. So, why the big fuss? Did you need someone to tell you?I know it is painful when long positions move against a trader quickly. Nobody expected the Fed to come out with the language that appeared this week, at least not anybody that I know. I also realize that it may seem logical to sell equities as a result. But, since when does the obviously logical approach win?So, the overnight Fed Fund rate is scheduled to begin increasing in 2023 (potentially late 2022 if you listened to Bullard on Friday). This news must mean that the Ten-year note yield had to go up, right? Nope. Down she went on Thursday and Friday; after catching a bid on Wednesday off the news.Figure 1 - $TNX Ten-year note treasury yield February 10, 2021 - June 18, 2021, Daily Source stockcharts.comPerhaps taking a trade like that is just too obvious; too logical. Now, will $TNX increase over time? Most likely it will, but 2023 is a long time from now. We have to wait and see how the new information is digested by the market and go from there.Can we look to apply similar logic to the S&P 500? For that question, I would like to refer back to the May 12th publication where we discussed $SPX pullbacks to the 50-day simple moving average.From May 12th:$SPX found support around the 50-day moving average on 2 of its last 3 attempts.When $SPX broke the 50-day on 1 of the last 3 attempts, it traded below it for 2 sessions.When $SPX broke the 50-day in September 2020 & October 2020, it closed below it between 7 - 9 sessions.Let’s keep in mind that the $SPX traded to the 50-day SMA on May 12th and May 19th, and is now below the 50-day SMA as I write this.Today, for the SPY ETF traders out there, let’s take a fresh look at recent pullbacks.Figure 2 - SPDR S&P 500 ETF December 04, 2020 - June 18, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comCan the previous price action near the 50-day SMA give us any clues about what could happen this time? Well, we have the 50-day SMA, and we also have the 414.15 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 411.79 key 61.8% retracement level. We have been waiting for such a pullback and I don’t think the recent Fedspeak is any reason to negate consideration of buying pullbacks. I know it seems somewhat illogical; that’s why I like it even more.Keep in mind that such pullbacks to certain price levels could take place in the overnight futures sessions. In that case, ETF traders may not get the exact price they are looking for if markets reverse to the upside during NY trading hours. At least this gives us some levels to consider.Why I Welcome this Pullback So MuchIf you have been following along and are a premium subscriber, you know that I have been waiting for pullback opportunities across many markets. In fact, out of the eight markets that I am covering, I have been waiting for pullback opportunities in six of them . The current price action and additional downside momentum could give us the opportunities that we have been patiently waiting for in several ETFs.Now, for our premium subscribers, we have a lot to cover. As we approach potentially key levels that we have been waiting for with patience and discipline, a plan is required. There are buy idea levels that could be triggered soon and were very close to triggering on Friday. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Have Gold Stocks Lost All Their Vigor?

Have Gold Stocks Lost All Their Vigor?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.06.2021 16:10
Gold sank profoundly on Jun. 17, taking its crew along. While it has the strength to go up for one more breath, other PM assets may not be that tough.The Gold MinersWhile investors believed that superficial strength indicated clear skies ahead, I warned on Jun. 14 that storm clouds were likely to rain on gold, silver and mining stocks’ parade.I wrote:Not only has gold’s RSI fallen precipitously, but the yellow metal’s stochastic oscillator is also at levels that preceded significant historical drawdowns. As a result, while a $100+ decline is likely to materialize in the short term , an even larger decline will likely occur over the medium term. And with the 2008 and 2012-2013 analogues becoming even more valid by the day, gold’s ominous path forward will likely catch many market participants by surprise.And with the technical realities finally drowning the yellow metal, it was a tough pill to swallow for those that didn’t heed the warning.Please see below:As part of the problem, the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. However, once one zooms out and looks at the situation from a broad perspective, it’s clear that: “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” (-Ecclesiastes 1:9)Therefore, while investors often focus all of their attention on the yellow metal, I warned on Jun. 14 that the HUI Index’s ominous behavior signaled significant downside for gold, silver and mining stocks.I wrote:With the HUI Index acting as the PMs’ canary in the coal mine, the bearish implications are as clear as day when eyeing the long-term chart. In the past three weeks, two key events unfolded:The stochastic oscillator delivered a clear sell signal.The self-similarity patterns became increasingly valid.And with last week’s price action adding further confirmation, investors’ optimism is showing severe cracks in its foundation.On top of that, even though the HUI Index plunged by more than 10% last week , the carnage may not be over. Case in point: the HUI Index is in the midst of forming the right shoulder of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, and if completed, could result in a profound decline over the medium term. For context, with gold approaching its late-April bottom and its rising medium-term support line, the yellow metal could bounce at roughly $1,750. In the process, the gold miners may follow suit. However, the bearish implications remain intact over the medium term, and a significant slide is likely to follow.Please see below:To explain, if you held firm in 2008 and 2013 and maintained your short positions, you almost certainly realized substantial profits. And while there are instances when it’s wise to exit one’s short positions and re-enter at more attractive prices, the smooth declines of gold, silver, and mining stocks mean that the risk-reward of doing so is tilted toward the downside. Or to put it more bluntly, the prospect of missing out on the forthcoming slide makes exiting the short positions a risky investment decision. For context, we believe that holding the short position is the most prudent course of action. However, if gold, silver and mining stocks become extremely oversold, we may consider covering on a short-term basis.If that wasn’t enough, I warned previously that the recent plunge was weeks in the making:I wrote the following about the week start started on May 24 :What happened three weeks ago was that gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.To that point, the HUI Index is still following two medium-term historical analogies. To explain, back in 2008, right before a huge slide, in late September and early October gold was still moving to new intraday highs, but the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market declined then. If stocks hadn’t declined back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would likely be present but more moderate.Moreover, in 2012, the HUI Index topped on Sep. 21, and that was just the initial high in gold. At that time the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs – so a bit more bearish than the current back-and-forth movement in this stock index. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold moved to new highs and formed the final top (Oct. 5). It was when the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite both, the HUI Index didn’t move to new highs. Thus, the similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) ended is uncanny .On top of that, the stochastic oscillator (which flashed a clear sell signal ) is singing a similar tune. Not only do these signals often precede massive price declines on their own, but the analogies of 2008 and 2012 serve as confirmation that the huge decline has only just begun and that forecasting lower gold prices is currently justified.Thus, if history rhymes, as it tends to, the HUI Index will likely decline profoundly and find medium-term support in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though it seems unthinkable.The HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over. Now, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw (a move above 320 is still close to 300 from the long-term point of view). To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.Furthermore , three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early 2020 high.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, the sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500 . However, with the Fed turning hawkish and investors extremely allergic to higher interest rates, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.Let’s zoom in.To explain, the senior miners’ weekly decline occurred relatively uninterrupted, with little buying pressure witnessed on Jun. 18. Moreover, not only did the GDX ETF close below its April lows and its March highs, but it also dipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Thus, while the senior miners’ RSI (Relative Strength Index) signals a buying opportunity (by falling below 30), the technical damage (breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) justifies the bearish outlook even in the short run. Of course, I remain on the lookout for this breakdown’s invalidation as it would be a sign of potential strength.Finally, let’s consider the size of the possible corrective upswing based on the analogy to 2012. Back then, the GDX ETF’s corrective upswing didn’t recapture 61.8% or even 38.2% of its previous decline, and the bullish correction was rather “muted” relative to gold. Thus, the notable detail here is that the GDX ETF started its November 2012 correction with the RSI close to 30, but also when it moved slightly below its previous (August) lows, and the final short-term bottom took place after the second (!) day when it declined on big volume.So, if history is going to continue to rhyme (which seems likely), even if gold corrects quite visibly, gold stocks’ corrective upswing might not be that significant. If we see “screaming short-term buy signals” or something like that, we might close or even briefly switch to the long side, but for now, the trend remains down.In conclusion, gold, silver and mining stocks’ plight was a humbling experience for many investors. And while the recent slide highlights the importance of investing without emotion, we remain confident that the precious metals will soar once again. However, because secular bull markets don’t occur in a straight line, based on the similarity to how similar situations developed in the past, a final profound decline will likely occur before the metals resume their resurgence. As a result, even though gold, silver, and mining stocks are poised to shine in the long run, I still think that short positions in the precious metals sector – especially in the junior miners – currently remain attractive from a risk-reward perspective.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Fed Didn‘t Tame Inflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.06.2021 16:45
As resilient as it had been before Wednesday, S&P 500 met selling pressure on Friday, including the best performing tech sector. Bullard‘s comments on the „inflation surprise“ and first rate hike before 2022 is over – are they full of hot air, testing the waters before taper, or serious intent? Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too..Money in the system isn‘t flowing into production or capacities expansion – inventories have instead been drawn down, and need to be replenished. Just as I have written the prior Monday, that would be putting upside pressure on prices as much Europe awakening or hard hit countries such as India springing back. So, fresh money results in excess liquidity, trapped in the system, and flowing to bonds, which explains the Fed‘s need to act and fix repo rate at 0.05%. So much for the recent spike in Treassuries – this whiff of „almost deflation“ has it wrong, and yields will revert to rising – regardless of when exactly (or if) other parts of the intended $6T stimulus package get enacted.Sure, the Fed actions have shortened the (sideways) lull in Treasuries, made the dollar spike, but haven‘t changed the underlying dynamic of the free market not willing to pick up the slack in credit creation should the Fed indeed taper. Chances are, they would still taper, but later in 2022 – such was and still is my expectation, with bank credit creation being (hopefully) the key variable on their watch as a deciding factor. In the meantime, the inflation problem will get even more embedded – not a fast galloping inflation or hyperinflation, but a serious problem raising its ugly head increasingly more through the years to come.In short, the Fed played the dot plot perceptions game which amounts to no serious attempt to nip inflation in the bud. The markets (precious metals, commodities) got thrown off prior trends, but will see through the bluff that can‘t be followed by actions. The inflation trades (and by extension modest rise in yields as we drift towards 2.50% on the 10-year before that tapering actually starts, with positive consequences for financials and cyclicals) haven‘t been killed off, and will reassert themselves when the markets test the Fed (and they will). To be clear, I am calling for persistently elevated (not hyper) inflation (PCE deflator readings coming soon) with the 10-year yield reverting to its more usual trading range – so essential to financial repression reducing the real value of all obligations.Keep also the following macroeconomic point on your mind – inflation isn‘t strong enough currently to knock off the P&L to make stocks roll over, we‘re still in a reflation and commodities super bull market. Lower GDP growth potential equals growth (tech) doing fine, but expect the stock market leadership to broaden yet again to include the beaten down industrials and financials.So, there is no taper (wait for Jackson Hole), but we‘re enduring almost a taper tantrum, and stocks might need to test the 4,050 – 4,100 broad support zone that has more chances of holding than not. Doing so, it would confirm that value is far from down and out, and that we have further to run. As menacing as the VIX looks, the put/call ratio is already positioned on a rather cautious side, meaning that no great S&P 500 correction is starting here. It doesn‘t look so currently – the dislocation in credit markets (high yield end) appears temporary.Gold and silver are being hit by the hawkish Fed bets, and so are the inflation expectations. Miners are buying into it, meaning that the miners to gold ratio is threatening a downswing on the weekly chart. Has the true downtrend in the metals started? The yellow metal is actually sitting at two strong supports, and silver to gold ratio remains still in an uptrend. Simply put, the last 3 days trading action appears too exagerrated given the bond market disequilibrium amplifying the dollar upswing. Sure, it‘s a stiff headwind, but the Fed is still as easy as can be, and the copper to 10-year yield ratio remains constructive on the weekly chart, and starting to doubt the decline‘s veracity on the daily one.Oil is a great example of the commodities fever being far from over, and I‘m looking for more (basing) strength in black gold in spite of the oil index getting inordinarily spooked alongside many real assets. That‘s consistent with the persistent inflation not yielding much at all.Bitcoin and Ethereum also appear buying into the hawkish Fed narrative, when in reality money is still loose. But the dollar effect is in play in cryptos too – even if the dollar is range bound on high time frames, its current upswing hasn‘t fizzled out yet – the markets aren‘t yet near doubting the Fed.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 daily downswing still looks to be part of a correction, and no topping pattern. Nasdaq has held up relatively well, and I‘m expecting more strength in tech, followed gradually by value.Credit MarketsThe intraday reversal in high yield corporate bonds is what matters the most, and better be followed by local bottom forming here.Technology and ValueTechnology has been quite resilient, contrasting with the doom and gloom in value or more lag in smallcaps.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners are reacting as if tightening was already on, and real rates actually not declining. While the dollar link has been more influential, gold price action next would decide the fate of both technical factors mentioned in the caption. Another, stronger support line including 2019 lows, is below.Silver has been and is likely to outperform gold, and in hindsight, the current storm would be of the rea cup variety. While copper rebound isn‘t here yet, the ratio to 10-year yield indicates a reprieve.Bitcoin and EthereumNeither Bitcoin nor Ethereum chart is bullish, and the only argument not to boot, is the presence of two BTC supports.SummaryS&P 500 is approaching a deciding point in its still reflationary era. Value stabilizing in the face of rising tech and Treasuries would be the next bull market run objective.Gold and silver aren‘t out of the woods just yet but tentative signs of stabilization look to be here. Conquering the pre-FOMC levels, attacking $1,900 seems for now to be more than a few weeks away.Crude oil remains well positioned to extend gains as the commodity selloff on Thursday barely touched it. The oil outlook remains bullish.Bitcoin and Ethereum aren‘t on an immediate winning streak, and the recent closing lows in Bitcoin (below 33,000) remain to be monitored for a turn in sentiment. The weekly basing pattern though can‘t be ignored, making a break below 30,000 unlikely to succeed the earlier we were to move into the 35,000 – 40,000 range. That‘s a big if.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Bitcoin or bonds

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 21.06.2021 23:35
One of the bigger doers is Ray Dalio. A principle-based manager of people and money with US$140 billion under management in his company Bridgewater Associates. Dario recently stated that he’d rather own Bitcoin than bonds. Do we need to say more?US Government Bonds 30Year Yield in USD, Monthly Chart, Where is it heading?US Government Bonds 30 YearR Yield in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 21st, 2021.A glance at the 30-year bonds over the last ten years shows a clear downtrend. We used a linear regression channel to illustrate this price decline. In 1987 bonds were trading at US$10 and have been declining ever since.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Strong up-thrusts:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 21st, 2021.A logarithmic representation of Bitcoin, on the other hand, over the same time span shows a continuous up movement. But that isn’t all. One of Bitcoin’s characteristic patterns is its strong up thrusts after retracements. This represents very favorable risk/reward-ratios, and eyeballing the figure scale to the right gives you an idea of the potential percentages of these up thrust gains. Thus, we find the recent retracement to be an invitation to participate in this market with low risk and, for the first time, ample confirmations from leaders on Wall Street. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, One or the other:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 21st, 2021.With prices moving away from POC (point of the control-white horizontal line), the rubber band gets stretched in this sideways zone of Bitcoin. The daily chart shows that two support zones are of interest to us, and we are posting our low risk entry attempts live in our free Telegram channel. Prices have just entered zone 1, and we positioned ourselves. Should this support fail to draw prices back to the US$38,800 price region (and beyond), we will again be aggressive buyers in zone 2.Bitcoin or bonds:The core problem is leverage. If you are well off, you have earned a level of comfort that provides little incentive to do the work it takes to familiarizes yourself with Bitcoin. The fact is that we are at an inflection point in history where a wealth transfer might be in process that leaves those reluctant to educate themselves out and diminishes their prosperity holdings. We do not share the belief in scarcity motivations. Still, We want to encourage you to consider that the recent increase of prominent players in the financial world stacking up on Bitcoin or, better said, getting public with their beliefs about Bitcoin after they stacked up might be the last time before this rocket is off to the moon.Consequently, this makes your wealth preservation much more expensive in the not too far distant future. As such, pulling up one’s sleeves to gain some more in-depth knowledge might result in data of what the fuss is all about. Thus, in our humble opinion, it is a strategically smart move.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 21st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

22 June 2021

Stock market news Stock market news 22.06.2021 09:40
SAVILLS PREDICTS DEMAND FOR OPERATIONAL REAL ESTATE ACROSS EUROPE, FORECASTING TOP ‘YOUTHFUL’ AND ‘AGED’ CITIESAs part of its latest Global Living research, Savills has identified the cities and regions in Europe that in five years’ time will be particularly ‘youthful’, having the largest share of people aged 20-39, and those that will be the most ‘aged’, with the highest number of people aged 65 or older. The global real estate advisor expects this to drive an increase in demand for purpose built student housing, co-living and multifamily in ‘youthful’ cities, as well as senior housing and housing with care in ‘aged’ ones.By country, the UK will have the most ‘youthful’ cities in 2026 (22), followed by Germany (18) and France (14). Germany will be the country with the most ‘aged’ cities (25), with France (15) and Italy (14) making up the top three.Paul Tostevin, Director in Savills World Research team, says: “These two groups are not mutually exclusive. Germany may be home to the most ‘aged’ cities in Europe, but it is also home to the second largest number of youthful cities. Scale is an important factor too. The number of 20-39 year olds in Berlin, for example, is lower only than London and Paris in Western Europe.”Marcus Roberts, Head of Europe for Savills Operational Capital Markets, says: “Operational residential real estate has proven to be extremely resilient in a time of exceptional global upheaval. Global investment into the ‘living’ sectors held up better than the office, retail or hotel sectors last year and that positive sentiment has continued in 2021. “Given the amount of capital chasing the sector and the limited amount of high quality stock available, our analysis allows developers, investors and operators to look five years into the future and anticipate in which cities demand for senior living, healthcare, student housing, co-living and multifamily is likely to grow.”The pandemic has also served to emphasise how social humans are and has shone a light on the ‘loneliness issue’. Purpose-built operational residential schemes can help to tackle this problem, according to Savills. For example, many housing with care and senior living schemes offer private rooms for residents as well as a support network and sense of community, while co-living can provide contacts for people moving to a new city and student housing can help young people to build networks and find relationships. With an emphasis on the social impact and value of real estate taking centre stage, and its importance expected to continue to grow in the coming years, developers, investors and operators are already ensuring their assets provide not just a place to live but access to amenities and strong integration with the wider community. Demographic trends in Poland, though often considered grim, can spur new opportunities for real estate investors. “Poland takes the fourth place among countries with the largest expected number of ‘aged’ cities within next five years. Eleven ‘aged’ cities set us ahead of some Western European countries, such as Spain or Netherlands but also make Poland stand out in the CEE. In the forthcoming years this can translate into attractive investment opportunities for international investors as there is an undersupply of quality senior living assets” says Jacek Kałużny, Associate Director, Residential Capital Markets, Savills Poland. “On the other hand Poland still boasts a number of ‘youthful’ cities such as Cracow or Wroclaw, that will undoubtedly attract new investors interested in operational assets, such as student housing or residential”.-ends-For further information, please contact: Kai Störmer, Savills Europe Press Office        Tel: +44 (0) 207 075 2885Jan Zaworski, Savills Poland Press Office Tel: +48 (0) 666 363 302Founded in the UK in 1855, Savills is one of the world's leading property agents with 600 offices across the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services.Should you not wish to receive Savills press releases, please email us at: kontakt.rodo@savills.pl. Click here for our Privacy Policy.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

S&P 500 Snapback, USD Strength. What’s Next for US Equities?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.06.2021 14:18
Monday gave us a fast snapback rally in the major US indices, with the S&P 500 adding 1.40% and erasing Friday’s losses. What’s on tap for the remainder of this week?Good morning folks. Today we hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell again at 2:00 PM, as he provides testimony on the Fed’s lending programs and policies. I am sure the market will be hanging on every word . However, what else could be said at this moment to either spook or encourage market participants? On Friday, the Fed’s Bullard talked about Q4 2022 for an initial hike and said that Chair Powell has already opened up talks of tapering. This commentary spooked the markets on Friday and led to the decline. But, we have already regained those losses (on Monday at least).All of this hawkishness sure has moved the US Dollar to the upside. As I discussed in the May 19th publication, the $DXY had been approaching a key long-term Fibonacci retracement level before all of this hawkish talk even began. It never actually traded to it ($88.36); however, it got very close: around $89.60, and found support. Time will tell if the US dollar strength is sustainable. By looking at the technicals, it looks like it could be.Figure 1 - US Dollar Index December 20, 2019 - June 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe can see the breakout about the 50 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages. In addition, we have the MACD crossing the zero line to the upside. The next test of strength will be to see if the $DXY can hold its 200-day moving average on a test, which sits at 91.58 as of the close on June 21st.Commodities, however, have broadly held their strength with the $DXY increasing. The big exception being interest-rate-sensitive precious metals. The general inflationary theme seems to be sticking right now.Figure 2 - $CRB Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index February 3, 2021 - June 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comCommodities are still firmly entrenched in an uptrend. It is an interesting phenomenon to see the US Dollar moving higher and commodities moving higher simultaneously. That could portend things to come in the future. Combined with higher rates, the overall market picture could change significantly over time in the long run. However, that’s a story for another time.Instead of getting caught up in the longer-term picture for the markets, we want to stay focused and dialed in on the short and medium-term to capture potential opportunities. Based on the snapback that our subscribers were prepared for in the broader markets, we start to get a sense of how the market may react to the more hawkish Fed rhetoric in the short term .Until things appear differently, buying the dips is still the higher probability move, in my opinion, especially in select names and themes.Figure 3 - S&P 500 Index February 3, 2021 - June 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comI want to emphasize the aforementioned select names and themes . A broader market rally like we saw yesterday is fantastic and was something that we were looking for based on a 50-day moving average pattern repetition. I think we can look to further stack the odds in our favor by drilling down to specific names, sectors, and stories .Market Themes Change Over TimeLet’s not discount the fact that the Fed has changed its stance. Rates will most likely increase in the future. There should be some tapering coming soon, and tapering will not be instant; it is a process that occurs over many months or even over a year. These things will certainly impact overall market sentiment . Trading the S&P 500 via the ES, SPY, or $SPX (for equity options) is a solid strategy. However, I am beginning to realize the importance of individual names and themes in what could very soon be more of a stock pickers market versus a broader market story.This is one reason I am currently covering nine markets for premium subscribers (S&P 500 and eight others). We just got great pullback action at the end of last week, and we were ready for it. Yesterday’s broader market action was just what we wanted to see.Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s recap the nine markets that we are covering to see if anything has changed since yesterday. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Will Gold Survive Hawkish Fed?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.06.2021 15:58
The recent Fed’s hawkish turn is fundamentally negative for gold prices but there is still some hope.The hawkish counter-revolution within the Fed continues. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the recent FOMC shift towards a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to faster economic growth and higher inflation than anticipated:We were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but this is a bigger year than we were expecting, more inflation than we were expecting, and I think it's natural that we've tilted a little bit more hawkish here to contain inflationary pressures.Bullard also noted that “Powell officially opened the taper discussion this week”. Indeed, in my Friday edition of the Fundamental Gold Report , I focused on the changed dot-plot , which suggested that FOMC members were ready to hike interest rates twice in 2023. However, the second major shift in the stance of the US central bank was that the Fed officials started to “talk about talking about” tapering.In his prepared remarks for the press conference, Powell said:At our meeting that concluded earlier today, the Committee had a discussion on the progress made toward our goals since the Committee adopted its asset purchase guidance last December. While reaching the standard of “substantial further progress” is still a way off, participants expect that progress will continue. In coming meetings, the Committee will continue to assess the economy’s progress toward our goals. As we have said, we will provide advance notice before announcing any decision to make changes to our purchases.In plain English, it means that the Fed could announce tapering at any of its future meetings, depending on the assessment of the incoming data. However, to avoid a replay of the taper tantrum , the Fed will “give advance notice before announcing any decision”. So, September is the first probable date of a hawkish announcement about tapering of quantitative easing , which could be preceded by some clues as early as in July:That is, you know, the process that we're beginning now at the next meeting. We will begin, meeting by meeting, to assess that progress and talk about what we think we're seeing, and just do all of the things that you do to sort of clarify your thinking around the process of deciding whether and how to adjust the pace and composition of asset purchases.Another hawkish shift in the Fed’s thinking, which is worth pointing out, is that it dropped the phrase in the statement saying that the pandemic is weighing on the economy. So, although it’s still cited as a risk, Powell and his colleagues officially ceased to see the pandemic as a constraint on economic activity. It means that, as I already wrote earlier in my reports, the US economy has returned to the pre- epidemic level or has shifted from the recovery to the expansion phase.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for the yellow metal? Well, the Fed triggered some panic selling in the gold market last week. Actually, on Thursday, there was the largest one-drop of 2021 in response to the more hawkish stance of the US central bank, as the chart below shows.The bearish reaction is understandable, as the Fed’s readiness to reduce its asset purchases and end the policy of zero interest rates is fundamentally negative for the yellow metal . More hawkish FOMC implies higher real interest rates and a stronger dollar, the two most important drivers of gold prices. Furthermore, when the US central bank becomes more hawkish, it means that it’s more confident in the economy – and gold struggles when the economy is strong.However, some analysts claim that the selloff was exaggerated . After all, the Fed still maintains that higher inflation is transitory; but transitory inflation doesn’t mix with earlier interest rate hikes. So, we will have either more lasting high inflation (but the Fed is slow to admit it), or the Fed doesn’t really want to increase its interest rates substantially. In both cases, gold should benefit, either from higher inflation and lower real interest rates, or from more dovish Fed than it’s currently perceived.So, the bullish case for gold is not dead yet, but if the Fed really becomes more hawkish and determined to tighten its monetary policy (while high inflation turns out to be transitory), gold may struggle during the upcoming tightening cycle , unless it triggers some economic turmoil.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

XAUUSD tests critical daily support

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 23.06.2021 10:17
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Looks For Rebound CatalystThe US dollar catching its breath offers bullions some respite.Gold is now hovering above May’s low at 1760, an important support from the daily chart. Its breach could invalid the rally from late March.The bullish RSI divergence indicates that the sell-off may have lost steam in this demand zone. A combination of profit-taking and fresh buying could help the metal recover.A confirmation would be close above the psychological level of 1800, which would then convince buyers to join in.USDCHF struggles on high groundThe US dollar softens, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists on not raising interest rates too soon.The pair has come under pressure near 0.9250, previously a support that has turned into a key resistance. The RSI divergence suggests a loss in the upward momentum and buyers may close out at the first sign of weakness.0.9170 is the immediate support. Its breach could trigger a 100-pip fall to the next level at 0.9070. A rally above the said resistance may propel the price to above 0.9300.NAS 100 grinds along bullish trendlineThe US tech index shrugged off inflation fear and recovered to an all-time high.Price action has bounced off of the rising trendline established in late March. This is a strong bullish indication amid sell-offs across equity markets.The RSI has returned to the neutral area, allowing buyers to accumulate without appearing to overdo it. The Nasdaq has broken above 14220 and may trigger a runaway rally towards 14400 as momentum players stake in. 14080 near the trendline is a key support to monitor.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Fed’s Liquidity Circus and Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.06.2021 11:23
Fed pumped so much money into the financial system, that the latter started sending it back. How will this and Fed’s more hawkish tone impact gold?With Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), testifying before Congress on Jun. 22, his prepared remarks signaled that the FED remains on autopilot. Despite saying that “job gains should pick up in coming months as vaccinations rise,” he added that “we at the FED will do everything we can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery.”And while Powell supported our thesis by saying that “labor demand is remarkably strong and over time we will find ourselves with low unemployment and wages going up across the spectrum,” when asked if inflation is transitory, he responded:“[Perhaps] all of the overshoot in inflation comes from categories such as rising used car and trucks, airplane tickets, hotel prices that have been affected by the reopening of the economy. [And while] these effects have turned out to be larger than we expected , the incoming data are consistent with the view that these factors will wane over time .” For context, of course inflationary pressures will “wane over time.” That’s not up for debate. However, “when” is the key question.But in a bid to remove any doubt, he added:" We will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation . We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances."Thus, while investors clearly cheered the FED Chair’s dovish sentiment on Jun. 22, Powell (for better or worse) still remains out of touch with reality. Case in point: the Philadelphia FED released its Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey on Jun. 22. And while “the full-time employment index fell 20 points to 4.3 in June after rising 17 points last month,” the report revealed that “both future activity indexes suggest that the respondents expect overall improvement in nonmanufacturing activity over the next six months.”Please see below: Source: Philadelphia FEDMore importantly, though, with the inflation drama still unfolding, the report showed more of the same:“After reaching its all-time high in May, the prices paid index mostly held steady in June at 49.0 Forty-nine percent of the firms reported increases, none reported decreases , and 33 percent of the firms reported stable input prices. Regarding prices for the firms’ own goods and services, the prices received index rose 12 points to 28.9 in June, its highest reading since June 2018.”Please see below: Source: Philadelphia FEDSimilarly, the Richmond FED also released its Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Jun. 22. And while the report cited that “average growth rates of both prices paid and prices received by survey participants declined slightly but remained elevated in June,” employment was more optimistic, with the report revealing that “many manufacturers increased employment and wages in June and [expect] further increases in the next six months.”Please see below: Source: Richmond FEDWhat’s more, while the FED admitted its inflation error on Jun. 16 – as evidenced by the increase in its forecast for the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – Powell is now pretending that growth doesn’t exist. For context, the FED increased its 2021 real GDP growth estimate from 6.5% to 7.0% on Jun. 16, so Powell’s assertion on Jun. 22 that the economy "is still a ways off" is quite the contradiction.Moreover, absent a severe spread of the Delta variant – which White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said was “the greatest threat in the U.S. to our attempt to eliminate COVID-19” – U.S. economic growth should easily outperform its developed-market peers.For example, many deflationists cite the slowdown in loan activity as a sign of a weak U.S. economy. However, with U.S. commercial banks releasing their deposit figures on Jun. 22, the argument is much more semblance than substance.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks deposits held by U.S. commercial banks, while the red line above tracks consumers’ revolving and credit card loans. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that a material gap is present. However, with unprecedented fiscal policy (stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits) flooding consumers’ bank accounts with dollars, why borrow money if you already have the cash to make the purchase?To that point, if we compare U.S. commercial banks’ deposits to the U.S. federal debt, the connection is even clearer.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks deposits held in U.S. commercial banks, while the red line above tracks the U.S. federal debt. If you analyze the sharp move higher in 2020, it’s another sign that U.S. citizens don’t need to borrow money when the government is already writing the checks. For context, there is a slight lag because the U.S. federal debt references Q1 data and U.S. commercial banks’ deposits reference Q2 data.Likewise, while rising U.S. nonfarm payrolls remain the key piece to solving the FED’s puzzle, the idea that monetary support is helping the real economy lacks credibility. To explain, the FED sold a record $792 billion worth of reverse repurchase agreements on Jun. 22. Moreover, when the FED buys $120 billion worth of bonds per month, the cash filters throughout the U.S. banking system and then financial institutions exchange that cash for Treasury securities on a daily basis, is QE really helping anyone?Please see below: Source: NY FEDFor context, I wrote previously:A reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the FED in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the FED at an alarming rate.More importantly, though, after the $400 billion level was breached in December 2015, the FED’s rate-hike cycle began. On top of that, the liquidity drain is at extreme odds with the FED’s QE program. For example, the FED aims to purchase a combined $120 billion worth of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities per month. However, with daily reverse repurchase agreements averaging $520 billion since May 21, the FED has essentially negated 4.33 months’ worth of QE in the last month alone.To that point, the flood of reverse repurchase agreements signals that financial institutions have no use for the FED’s handouts. Think about it: if commercial banks could generate higher returns by originating loans for consumers and businesses, wouldn’t they? And with 74 counterparties participating on Jun. 22 – up from 46 on Jun. 7 – the FED’s liquidity circus is now on display every night.If that wasn’t enough, I’ve highlighted on several occasions that gold exhibits a strong negative correlation with the U.S. 10-Year real yield (inflation-adjusted). And unsurprisingly, when the latter peaked in late 2018 and began its descent, it was off to the races for gold.Please see below:To explain, the gold line above tracks the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price , while the red line above tracks the inverted U.S. 10-Year real yield. For context, inverted means that the latter’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising red line represents a falling U.S. 10-Year real yield, while a falling red line represents a rising U.S. 10-Year real yield.More importantly, though, if you analyze the relationship, you can see that before the U.S. 10-Year real yield plunged, gold was trading below $1,250 (follow the arrow). Conversely, once the U.S. 10-Year real yield hit an all-time low of – 1.08% in 2020, gold was trading above $2,000.Thus, what emotional gold investors fail to appreciate is that the yellow metal benefited from abnormally low interest rates. And with further strength dependent on another all-time low, the FED’s tightening cycle (which is already subtly underway) paints an ominous portrait of gold’s medium-term future.To that point, with Morgan Stanley telling its clients that “ We are past “Peak Fed” for the cycle and the market knows it ,” overzealous gold investors ignore the difficult realities that lie ahead.Please see below:To explain, the blue line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield and important fundamental developments are marked in red. If you analyze the “Peak Fed” labels near 2012 and 2020 and compare them with gold’s behavior on the first chart above, you can see how abnormally low U.S. 10-Year real yields coincided with abnormally high gold prices. As a result, with the former poised to move higher in the coming months, the yellow metal will likely head in the opposite direction.What’s more, not only are the PMs dodging bullets from the bond market, but the USD Index has barely made its presence felt. For example, while the FED’s hawkish shift (even if Powell won’t admit it) is extremely bullish for the greenback, market participants – who are willing to give the FED the benefit of the doubt – still remain skeptical of the recent rally.Please see below:To explain, the black line above tracks Citigroup’s USD Positioning Alert Indicator (PAIN). For context, the index gauges whether or not positioning is crowded in the currency market. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that U.S. dollar sentiment has fallen off of a cliff. However, with all signs pointing to a September taper, a violent short-covering rally could catch many investors off guard.As further evidence, when the FED delivered its taper announcement in December 2013, the USD Index recorded (with a delay) one of its sharpest rallies ever.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that after the FED revealed its hand, the USD Index found a bottom and surged roughly six months later. Thus, with a similar announcement likely in the fall, the PMs could be confronted with even more negativity.And no, Basel 3 is not likely to be a game-changer for the gold market in the near term – I discussed that on June 2 .In conclusion, while the gold, silver, and mining stocks remain ripe for a short-term rally (no market moves in a straight line and PMs are no exception), their medium-term outlook remains extremely treacherous. And though Powell calmed investors’ nerves on Jun. 22 and market participants remain loyal followers, it’s important to remember that he is far from omniscient. After a significant about-face regarding the future trajectory of the headline PCE Index – a forecast that he made only three months ago – his confidence game is all about sentiment. Thus, while investors will give him the benefit of the doubt until the bitter end, the recent behavior of the bond market, the USD Index and the precious metals signal that the winds of change have already begun to blow.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dialing Back the Fed Fears for Now

Dialing Back the Fed Fears for Now

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.06.2021 16:17
S&P 500 extended gains as the Powell testimony calmed the markets that the punch bowl isn‘t going away „any day now“ - that urgent it might have felt to some given the post-FOMC hit first to precious metals, and then to select commodities with stocks. If the dollar is getting second thoughts about buying into the hawkish Fed (at least a little), then Treasuries certainly are. And it‘s the performance of value stocks that‘s signalling a certain paring of the tightening bets. While reflation or inflation trades aren‘t over, value is still set to underperform tech, and only select sectors are to rejoin its stock market leadership. Yes, the market breadth is going to widen as stock bull run is far from over, and what we have seen (despite the special alarm bells attached), is a run of the mill shallow correction. That‘s what bull markets do, they climb a wall of worry. Open profits are growing.So, we got a preview of what a true tightening attempt could look like at its earliest stages, and at the same time the Powell pledge not to raise rates unless the recovery is complete, so to say. So as not to disturb the the job market recovery, assuring us at the same time that 1970s stagflation isn‘t on the horizon. For now, it indeed isn‘t as economic growth is still running faster than (current) inflation, which means that any growth scare is far down the road. Yet, the no stagflation assurances smack of this inflation narrative progression, so a healthy dose of suspicion is well placed. It‘s my view that the inflation expectations jawboning bought the central bank just a little time before the inflation trades regain traction. The Fed simply doesn‘t appear to want to act decisively.With more taper discussions deferred to Jackson Hole, the best the Fed can do now, is to attempt to reinterpret the meaning of the word transitory – and that‘s exactly what Bostic is already doing. Suddenly, the phase of higher inflation won‘t be less than 3 months as originally expected, but perhaps 2 to 3 quarters. That‘s a world of difference!Gold and silver are bound to like this shift in meanings, and market based inflation expectations are starting to see through that language. Even though miners and miners to gold ratio aren‘t marking such a turning point yet, the wait and see posture is there already. Given the commodity moves (CRB not too far from prior highs already, copper recovering from its bearish overshoot, oil stubbornly extending gains little by little), silver is likely to lead gold during the next meaningful upswing. For now, basing isn‘t over just yet – but the below Fed posture will come back to haunt it as much as opting to focus on PCE deflator (taken to extremes, you downgrade from a steak to a hamburger to what next? Cat or dog food?):(…) In short, the Fed played the dot plot perceptions game which amounts to no serious attempt to nip inflation in the bud. The markets (precious metals, commodities) got thrown off prior trends, but will see through the bluff that can‘t be followed by actions. The inflation trades (and by extension modest rise in yields as we drift towards 2.50% on the 10-year before that tapering actually starts, with positive consequences for financials and cyclicals) haven‘t been killed off, and will reassert themselves when the markets test the Fed (and they will). To be clear, I am calling for persistently elevated (not hyper) inflation (PCE deflator readings coming soon) with the 10-year yield reverting to its more usual trading range – so essential to financial repression reducing the real value of all obligations.Crude oil welcomes the current tightening perceptions reprieve, and the oil sector is running ahead in the anticipated stock market breadth broadening. Steep downswings aren‘t favored, and black gold would suffer only should the Fed turn genuinely hawkish, which they objectively can‘t do now. So, more oil profits are ahead.Cryptos have rebounded after the 30,000 support in Bitcoin held on a closing basis. It‘s up to the bulls now to prove that the washout marks the start of accumulation as favored by the weekly charts.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 daily upswing continued, driven yet again by Nasdaq – more gains are likely, with or without preceding sideways consolidation.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds extended gains more vigorously than the defensive, higher quality debt instruments.Technology and ValueTechnology driven by $NYFANG was the engine of yesterday‘s growth, with value unable to extend gains (still consolidating within its current underperformance).Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners are holding on to the recent lows, giving impression of being about to peek higher as the Fed noises die down for now.Silver hasn‘t yet gotten its mojo back but the copper to 10-year yield ratio suggests an upswing attempt isn‘t that far away.Bitcoin and EthereumLocal bottom looks to be in place, and the bulls need to defend current levels as a very minimum in order to keep in the game.SummaryS&P 500 looks ready to consolidate and extend gains, with Nasdaq still in the driving seat.Gold and silver upswing attempt is coming next as in Fed hawkishness gets duly reassessed. Even though miners don‘t favor much lasting success currently, the base building before renewed push higher (above $1,820) is underway.Crude oil looks likely to extend gains thanks to reflation, and money is flowing back into commodities now that the Fed is reinterpreting the „context of tightening and transitory“.Bitcoin and Ethereum have staved off further downside for now, but the bulls would need to break above 44,000 minimum in Bitcoin so as to regain bull market momentum. That‘s tall order for now.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

S&P 500 Near All Time Highs and What We Got Right

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.06.2021 18:01
It was a thunderous day for equity indices yesterday, with the S&P 500 approaching all-time highs. Our analysis has worked well. What comes next for the benchmark US index?Greetings! What a move in the $SPX from its 50-day moving average touched on Friday and Monday. In fact, the S&P 500 had its best two days since May 14th!We heard from Chair Powell yesterday during his testimony at the House of Representatives. It was a politically fueled discussion , with Republicans highlighting the lack of desire of many workers to return to work in some states. The market moved higher off the testimony, with Chair Powell reiterating that inflation was indeed transitory and very sector-specific. Is this correct? I suppose time will tell. What matters for us is that the broader markets moved higher during and after the testimony; while beginning to retreat in the final 30 minutes of the NY session.If you have been following along or are a Premium subscriber, you know that we had been waiting for an entry into the S&P 500 at or near the 50-day simple moving average for quite some time. After waiting with patience and discipline, we got our signal on Friday and Monday with the $SPX briefly trading below this key level and ultimately reversing to the upside on Monday.Figure 1 - S&P 500 Index March 19, 2021 - June 23, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWhat a wonderful move for us. It takes patience and discipline to wait and execute . Now, if you are a Premium subscriber , you received an email alert at approximately 3:38 ET yesterday, suggesting to consider exiting long S&P 500 positions. There were several reasons for this:I realized this was the best two-day period in five weeks .Hourly RSI(14) was approaching the 70 level - indicating short-term overbought conditions.Being greedy is never a good thing.S&P 500 was within 10 handles of all-time highs.So, around 3:30 PM ET yesterday, all of this came together in my mind and indicated that it may be a good time to sell. What if it keeps going up? Who cares. Nobody catches exact tops and bottoms in trading. The idea is to catch the meat of the move before the market takes it away. And with everything going on including inflation, higher rate environment digestion, and numerous other factors, it was a good time to take chips off the table.Figure 2 - S&P 500 Index June 22, 2021 - June 23, 2021, 10:58 AM, 15 Minute Candles Source stooq.comI have been in and around the S&P 500 long enough to know when the index throws you a bone; you take it.In addition, trading the $SPX around and near all-time highs can be tricky business. What would be the catalyst to break out above the old high? This morning, we got a mixed bag of mostly bearish economic data including New Home Sales, and PMI metrics. Courtesy of our friends at FX Empire :Figure 3 - Certain US Economic Data Releases for June 23, 2021 Source fxempire.comAs we can see from the above table, this morning's economic data was nothing to write home about. However, markets can remain illogical for extended periods. For the moment, my attention turns away from the indices and goes back to select names and themes until more time passes. You have to know when to stay away, too.Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s recap the markets that we are covering to see if any key levels have changed or new opportunities have been found. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Powell Didn’t Come to Gold’s Rescue – What Now?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.06.2021 16:50
Powell’s testimony to Congress failed in generating a rebound in gold prices; thus, the bearish trend could continue.On Tuesday (June 22) the Fed Chair testified before the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, U.S. House of Representatives . Before Powell’s appearance in Congress, there were some hopes that he would soften the Fed’s hawkish signals from the previous week. However, these hopes only partially materialized.This is because Powell’s testimony was basically a confirmation of the last FOMC meeting . In particular, he reiterated the view that higher inflation would be transitory, as “a substantial part or perhaps all of the overshoot in inflation are from categories directly affected by reopening.”Actually, some of his remarks were quite hawkish , as he said that the price pressures “don't speak to a broadly tight economy, but these effects have been larger and may persist longer than expected”. The admission that strong inflationary pressure could last longer than expected suggests that Powell is more worried about inflation than several months ago. He even explicitly admitted that “5% inflation is not acceptable.”Luckily for the gold bulls, there were also some dovish comments . In particular, Powell said that the Fed wouldn’t hike the federal funds rates too quickly based only on inflationary worries:We will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation. We will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.Of course, it doesn’t make any sense, as actual inflation is already 5%, more than twice the target, and the Fed hasn’t reacted. The US central bank remains passive because it believes that inflation will prove to be transitory. However, it means that it actually acts based on expectations, not the current data, contrary to what the Fed is saying when justifying its ultra-dovish stance.And Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also sent some dovish signals in an interview with National Public Radio’s Morning Edition he gave the next day after Powell’s testimony. He adhered to the view about temporary inflation, but he explained that the time horizon of this temporariness would be longer than previously thought:The recent jump in prices will prove temporary, but "temporary is going to be a little longer than we expected initially... Rather than it being two to three months it may be six to nine months.However, Bostic didn’t mention the necessity to hike in the face of prolonged high inflation. On the contrary, he pointed out that the Fed shouldn’t announce the victory in the jobs battle too quickly: “We have to make sure our policies don't pivot in ways that make it look like we are declaring victory prematurely.”Implications for GoldWhat does all this mean for the yellow metal? Well, theoretically, more lasting high inflation with unchanged dovish stance of the US central bank s hould be positive for gold prices , as an unresponsive Fed implies lower real interest rates , which usually support the yellow metal.However, gold hardly reacted to either Powell’s or Bostic’s comments . As the chart below shows, contrary to some hopes, Powell’s testimony failed in sending strong dovish signals that would be able to overwrite the hawkish turmoil triggered by the recent dot-plot . So, there was no rebound in gold prices. Instead, the price of the yellow metal merely stabilized at about $1,775.The lack of any rebound is a bad sign, indicating gold’s weakness (especially given that some other assets rebounded a bit this week after the post-FOMC turmoil ). This suggests that gold prices have room for further declines. It seems that gold would need a very dovish surprise from the Fed to go the other way, which is not likely without some kind of economic crisis or at least an influx of significantly negative economic data.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

The Silver island within CBDCs

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.06.2021 11:27
To us, the answer is quite simple. Money is personal. It feels inherently good to have cash in your wallet or under the mattress. It might be fun to some to have apple pay at a time of the iPhone craze, but do you want to give up on your privacy and a feeling of control over your savings at times of uncertainty. Change needs to be incentivized, and we do not see anything that typical card and payment systems haven’t done there already? In short, we know the stability of the inherent value and the historical proof of attraction of precious metals to outweigh any appeal central banks could try to entice us with. Our money is on Silver.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Physical purchase opportunity:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of June 25th, 2021Some countries already gave way to their cash due to hyperinflation. Even if you live under the rule of the mighty dollar, you can feel inflation with each grocery shop. Meaning there is a risk that the dollar isn’t so mighty after all anymore. Not everybody has that much wealth to invest in the housing market or real estate. Quickly your options diminish. With Gold being pricey and Bitcoin not being everybody’s cup of tea, our suggested bet on a physical silver purchase is not so far-fetched.The monthly chart of Silver reflects these assumptions showing a strong breakout from a multi-year sideways trading range. Recent behavior provides an investment opportunity since prices declined, and a low-risk entry scenario is unfolding.A physical purchase transaction for a long-term play has its obstacles, you might say. There is a premium to be paid over the spot price, and as such, it doesn’t provide quite as much transaction speed as the click of a button on a trade.Review our chart above one more time and enter anywhere between the red and green horizontal lines. You will find that you have an exceptionally favorable risk-reward ratio. More so if considering that we would only exit half of our position near the US$50 mark and expect the remainder to go much higher. The risk assumption is the unlikeliness for the price to penetrate much into the previous multi-year channel resistance (now support) of the US$20 mark.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Confirming the bull:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of June 25th, 2021Let us zoom now into the smaller weekly time frame. We find that the chart shows nicely how the strength of the multi-year breakout last year persisted. When you look at the neutral sideways zone, you can tell that it entails inherent strength. Foremost, we didn’t see a dramatic decline. Secondly, this sideways trading zone nearly persisting now for a year will make the next breakout to higher price levels magnify in both price and time duration. Clearly, another part of the puzzle why we see the US$50 level not only be reached but also taken out at some point. Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Tricky but manageable:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of June 25th, 2021.Silver spot price trading is a bit trickier right here. Volatility is high around options and futures contract expiry time. Typically, we fade momentum as contrarians. In these scenarios, we prefer a late confirmed entry to avoid the increased risk volatility early entry. The daily chart above shows the various stacked odds of support. We are sitting on a supply support zone (green box). In addition, the price is also above the simple 200-day moving average. Most dominantly, we are trading right at directional support of the lower rim of a congesting triangle (yellow line).The Silver island within CBDCs:Some might argue the lack of long-distance transaction capability with precious metal payment options, and rightfully so. We are not opposed to say Bitcoin, for example, within your wealth preservation portfolio. We are highly confident that history has shown that the stability of money and payment methods are all about trust. In time of the information age and shaky economic grounds, we doubt that individuals blindly accept their greenbacks, even if exchanged over time, to be transferred into bits and bytes. Especially if this means that every purchase is documented, and privacy erased. It feels too natural and too safe to be able to either carry or store at home your true treasures without a ledger at the bank.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 25th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

FED: What’s Going On Behind the Scenes?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.06.2021 15:49
The FED allows banks to do much more than what is proper based on the “economy is still bad” narrative. What does this mean for a private investor?Banking on a ComebackWith the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) releasing its annual bank stress tests on Jun. 24, Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said that “the banking system is strongly positioned to support the ongoing recovery." For context, the FED’s stress tests analyze the health of U.S. banks’ balance sheets and reveal how they would fare if hypothetical economic doomsdays were to occur.And while Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Jun. 22 that the U.S. economy "is still a ways off," the results of the stress tests are a contradiction. Case in point: the report revealed that since “all 23 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements […] the additional restrictions put in place during the COVID event will end .”Translation? The FED will allow U.S. banks – like JPMorgan , Bank of America and Citigroup – to resume share buybacks and standard dividend payments (roughly $130 billion worth) as of next month.Please see below: Source: U.S. FEDOn top of that, the FED considers the following a scary situation:“The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession accompanied by a period of heightened stress in CRE and corporate debt markets. The U.S. unemployment rate climbs to a peak of 10-3/4 percent in the third quarter of 2022, a 4 percentage point increase relative to its fourth quarter 2020 level. Real GDP falls 4 percent from the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 to its trough in the third quarter of 2022. The decline in activity is accompanied by a lower headline consumer price index (CPI).”However, even if this hypothetical malaise occurs, the FED believes that all 23 banks will pass the test with flying colors.Please see below: Source: U.S. FEDTo explain, the third column from the left depicts the banks’ regulatory capital ratios under the “severely adverse scenario.” Moreover, if you compare the results with the fourth column from the left, you can see that even if an economic meteor strikes, participants’ ratios will still remain above their regulatory minimums. For context, common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) is the most liquid source of banks’ capital, and the CET1 ratio is used to gauge banks’ ability to absorb losses should an economic shock occur.But why is all of this so important?Well, if the FED was so worried about the U.S. economy, would it allow financial institutions to frivolously spend their collateral on dividends and share buybacks? Remember, U.S. banks supply credit card loans, mortgages, commercial loans and finance the sectors that were hardest hit by COVID-19 (commercial real estate, hospitality, energy, etc.). Thus, with the FED giving banks the ‘all-clear,’ it’s a sign that the U.S. economy is much stronger than the FED lets on.In addition, The White House announced on Jun. 24 that a $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal was reached . And calling the milestone “the largest federal investment in public transit in history and the largest federal investment in passenger rail since the creation of Amtrak,” lawmakers want to cook the U.S. economy until it boils. For context, the agreement includes $579 billion of new spending with the rest being diverted from untapped coronavirus-relief funds.Please see below: Source: The White HouseMore importantly, though, with U.S. lawmakers hell-bent on pushing the limits of inflation and economic growth, the ominous impulse remains bullish for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the USD Index. Regarding the latter, if U.S. GDP growth outperforms the Eurozone, the EUR/USD – which accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index – should suffer in the process. Likewise, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield materially undervalued relative to realized inflation and prospective GDP growth , unprecedented spending should put upward pressure on interest rates. Furthermore, the bullish cocktail should force the FED to taper its asset purchases in September .To explain, while the PMs are allergic to a rising U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, the latter doesn’t have to move for the metals to suffer. For example, following the FED’s announcement on Jun. 16, the U.S. 2-Year, 3-Year and 5-Year Treasury yields surged. And while the development flattened the U.S. yield curve – meaning that short-term interest rates rose while long-term interest rates stood pat – the PMs still suffered significant drawdowns. Thus, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield remains ripe for an upward re-rating, even if it stays in consolidation mode, short-term interest rate pressures are just as ominous.Will We See Another Inflation Surprise?To that point, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index scheduled for release today, another inflation ‘surprise’ could rattle the bond market once again. To explain, I wrote on Jun. 22:The FED increased its year-over-year (YoY) headline PCE Index forecast from a rise of 2.40% YoY to a rise of 3.40% YoY on Jun. 16. However, with the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) surging by 18.98% YoY – the highest YoY percentage increase since 1974 – the wind still remains at inflation’s back. Moreover, with all signs pointing to a YoY print of roughly 4% to 4.50% on Jun. 25, the “transitory” narrative could suffer another blow on Friday.As further evidence, the Kansas City FED released its Manufacturing Survey on Jun. 24. And with the composite index rising from 26 in May to 27 in June, Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the KC FED, had this to say about the current state of affairs:“Regional factory activity rose again in June and expectations for future activity were the highest in survey history . While the majority of firms continue to face increasing materials prices and labor shortages, many firms have also increased selling prices and capital expenditures for 2021.”To that point, while the KC FED’s prices paid and prices received indexes declined slightly from their all-time highs, both gauges remain above their prior historical peaks.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the KC FED’s prices paid index, while the red line above tracks the KC FED’s prices received index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that both remain extremely elevated.On top of that, survey respondents provided the following anecdotal evidence: Source: KC FEDAlso supportive of future economic growth, U.S. manufacturers spent $36.218 billion on machinery in May (the data was released on Jun. 24) – only a slight decrease from the all-time high of $36.364 billion set in April. And with machinery representative of long-lived assets that have high breakeven costs, the recent splurge signals that manufacturers remain optimistic about the recovery.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks manufacturers’ machinery orders, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the Private Employment Cost Index (ECI). If you analyze the relationship, you can see that when manufacturers invest in long-term equipment, wage inflation often follows. As a result, if the two lines continue their ascent, it will only increase the odds that the FED tapers in September. Forecasting more hawkish, not more dovish FED seems to be appropriate at this time.Knock Knock? It’s China, We Want More MoneyOn top of that, with the U.S. goods trade balance (exports minus imports) revised to -$88.11 billion on Jun. 24, foreign production is required to stock U.S. shelves. And with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (the cost to ship from China) unrelenting in its parabolic rise, it’s another indicator that inflationary pressures are unlikely to abate anytime soon.Finally, with the FED selling another $813 billion worth of reverse repurchase agreements on Jun. 24 (~$53 million below the all-time high set on Jun. 23), the liquidity drain remains on schedule.Please see below: Source: NY FEDTo explain the significance, I wrote previously:A reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the FED in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the FED at an alarming rate.More importantly, though, after the $400 billion level was breached in December 2015, the FED’s rate-hike cycle began. On top of that, the liquidity drain is at extreme odds with the FED’s QE program. For example, the FED aims to purchase a combined $120 billion worth of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities per month. However, with daily reverse repurchase agreements averaging $520 billion since May 21, the FED has essentially negated 4.33 months’ worth of QE in the last month alone.In conclusion, while the PMs should recover a meaningful chunk of last week’s downswing, their medium-term outlook isn’t so sanguine. With FED hawks and doves splintered down the middle, the fundamentals are firmly tilted in the former’s favor. And with inflation and U.S. GDP growth both accelerating concurrently, unemployment is the only card left for the doves to play. However, with enhanced unemployment benefits expiring in early July for roughly 30% of claimants, U.S. nonfarm payrolls should show strength in August and September. Thus, with the FED’s taper talk likely to grow louder over the next few months, the PMs may not like what they will hear.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Jumping the Fed Tightening Ship

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.06.2021 15:55
S&P 500 powered higher after the daily pause, yet its solid gains don‘t have such a risk-on feel as the credit markets do. Depending on tech heavyweights for the lion‘s share of gains isn‘t though an immediate concern – the market breadth is slowly improving after value stocks were bombed out post-FOMC. Signs of life are returning, facilitated by the Fed‘s $8.1T and growing reasons to celebrate, so don‘t be spooked too many lower knots in VIX when there is no panic in the options arena either.As tech-reliant as the S&P 500 is, the path of least resistance is still higher – and in the same way (tight trailing stop-loss) Nasdaq could be approached too, so as to protect our open profits while letting them grow.PCE deflator readings often come below CPI thanks to the „weighted substitution effect“ at play, and it would come back to haunt the Fed. Taken to extremes, you downgrade from a steak to a hamburger, and then what? Cat or dog food? Obviously, this measure is favorable to the Fed as it defers the taper speculation further to the future. Together with the redefinition of how long transitory used to last earlier, and what transitory (inflation) means now, the central bank wins in leaving the punch bowl available for longer (the job market offerrs plenty of excuses too). If last week gave us any lesson, it was that market players are all too quick to sell both the winners and losers. The spike in Treasuries was a clear warning sign of stress.Gold and silver keep basing, for my taste a little bit too long. Not even silver is waking up – it isn‘t inspired by CRB. First stocks, then commodities, and finally precious metals would recover from the tightening speculation – it‘s thus far working this way. As I wrote yesterday, it‘s that the copper to 10-year yield ratio doesn‘t favor much precious metals downside (nominal yields aren‘t a risk here – only the dollar that appears consolidating before another push higher, seriously is).The greenback though missed an opportunity to rise, and quelling the inflation fears through an „understated“ (different approach in accounting) figure, wouldn‘t be a bullish driver. USD/JPY also hasn‘t been trading favorably to the yellow metal lately, meaning the (gold) inflation trades may have to retrace a little more of their recent run before continuing higher. Again, gold is spending too much time at its recent support while silver isn‘t showing signs of life – miners to gold ratio isn‘t taking initiative either. Better clear off that zone...Crude oil keeps trading with a bullish outlook, and oil stocks have a great future ahead – the intraday and upcoming volatility might not be always pleasant, but black gold is far from making a top..Cryptos base building hypothesis hasn‘t been invalidated, but the current downswing better gets solidly retraced, otherwise we‘re in for another hot weekend.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is going higher, reliably powered by tech stocks (heavyweights, precisely).Credit MarketsRisk-off Wednesday gave way to some animal spirits returning yesterday.Technology and ValueThe sectoral S&P 500 view isn‘t though a true picture of risk-on yesterday.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners keep going nowhere – there is no momentary sign of strength, just temporary stability. Bigger move is coming. Silver isn‘t yet leading gold, and the copper leadership is thus far being lost. Precious metals are obviously afraid of tightening, and had been hurt hardest in last week‘s liquidation.Bitcoin and EthereumPrices are again approaching danger zone.SummaryS&P 500 led by Nasdaq looks set to extend gains, and the leadership supporting the advance, will broaden.Gold and silver still haven‘t regained short-term bullish momentum, and the longer they fail to do that, the more precarious their position in this long base building.Crude oil seesaws in the short run, but the consolidation is likely to be resolved with higher prices, and oil equities rising again.Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls better step in, and vigorously defend the 32,500 before the bears‘ appetite increases.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Is There a Next Housing Bubble That Will Make Gold Shine?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.06.2021 16:33
Home prices are surging, making some investors worry about the housing market. These fears seem to be exaggerated, but bubble-like conditions are widespread.House prices are surging. As the chart below shows, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has reached 239 in February 2021, the highest number in history and about 30% higher than during the 2006 peak.What’s more, the National Home Price Index has jumped 12% year-over-year in February , which is the highest annualized gain since January 2006 when the housing bubble started deflating as can be seen in the chart below. At the same time, inventory in many regions has hit record lows.Not surprisingly, some analysts started to worry about the formation of the next housing bubble . The previous one led to the global financial crisis . However, at least some part of the recent increases can be explained by other factors than mere expectations of price increases, which characterizes a bubble.The mortgage rates plunged thanks to the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy and accommodative monetary policy . The easy fiscal policy with stimulus checks also added fuel to the fire, especially given that people couldn’t spend money on services, so they spent more on housing.The demographic factors also helped to move prices up. Many Millennials have just entered the prime home-buying age, and the pandemic made a lot of people demand more space as they work remotely.In other words, the recent surge in prices is likely a result of an imbalance between tight supply (that rises too slowly to meet booming demand fueled by low interest rates ) and income growth rather than an irrational exuberance. Furthermore, lending standards are also tighter now. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows the home price index vis-à-vis the GDP (presented also as an index).As one can see, in the 2000s there was a clear, huge divergence between the pace of GDP growth and the pace of home prices’ appreciation that lasted a few years before the bubble burst. But since the end of the Great Recession , the growth in house prices was below the GDP growth. Therefore, I would say that there is no bubble in the housing market. Not yet, at least – house prices started to diverge from GDP growth during the pandemic recession …Hence, it would be smart to monitor the housing market carefully. However, so far, gold bulls shouldn’t count on the housing bubble and its burst as important factor that could support the price of the yellow metal. Nevertheless, the recent ultra-low real interest rates and high inflation should support both: gold and houses . After all, they are both hard assets sensitive to interest rates and are being eagerly bought during inflationary periods.More importantly, despite the fact that it’s maybe too early to call the national bubble in the housing market (although some locations are really hot), in many markets there are bubble-like conditions. Just think about soaring stock market indices reaching one record after another. Or negative-yielding bonds worth about $18 trillion. Or surging used car prices that have just hit an all-time high. Or lumber that has become America’s hottest commodity.Or Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that was created as a joke. It has gained about 8,500% this year, despite the recent sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. As a popular tweet commented on this, “Moderna created a lifesaving vaccine in record time and is worth $70 billion. Dogecoin became a meme and is worth $87 Billion.”The widespread character of these price increases is the reason why some analysts refer to the “everything bubble”. It might be an exaggeration, but the scope of bubble-like conditions clearly shows that markets are awash in liquidity. All this new money supply and excess liquidity simply entered the economy, exerting inflationary pressure across the board and boosting mainly risk assets.Indeed, there is inflation, but still mainly in the asset markets, not in the consumer sphere. However, this is changing, as the April CPI reading has clearly indicated. Producer/commodity inflation could advance into the next stage in which consumer prices are also generally increasing. Inflated asset valuations and rising prices of goods suggest that caution is warranted, and it would be smart to allocate some portion of the investment portfolio toward gold.The bottom line is that the global expansion will continue, which is bad for gold. However, the growth is fueled by excessive liquidity and ultra-low interest rates, which also creates inflationary pressure and bubble-like conditions. Gold could be supported by all this – it may even thrive if inflation turns out to be higher and more lasting than it’s widely believed.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunity

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 28.06.2021 11:52
In view of the sharp price declines, crypto investors are asking themselves these days whether the sector is already being stuck in a new “crypto winter” since almost seven weeks or whether the brutal pullback may have been just a healthy shakeout after all, laying the foundation for significantly higher prices in the medium term. Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunity.ReviewSince the new all-time high at US$64,895 on April 14th, prices for Bitcoin have come under tremendous pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is “only” trading around US$33,000 USD and thus almost 50% lower than in early April! While Ethereum and numerous small altcoins were just getting ready for the grand finale, Bitcoin´s increasing fatigue was gradually becoming more and more obvious. Finally, the spectacular crypto bull run ended on May 12th with Ethereum´s parabolic new all-time high at US$4,375.Consequently, the entire sector topped, and a merciless wave of liquidation followed, taking pretty much everything down with it. Bitcoin only temporarily found a low at US$29,500, as this low was slightly undercut again on Monday 24th of June at US$29,250. Ethereum, on the other hand, did not find any support at all in recent weeks and kept falling towards a new low at US$1,711 this week. This low was well below the panic low of June 21st at US$1,896. In the last 4 days, however, crypto bulls are trying to get back on their feet posting a nice transitory bounce from extremely oversold levels (Bitcoin +17.91%, Ethereum +19.5%).You have been warnedSix weeks ago, we had warned of an imminent pullback in a timely and pretty aggressive manner. However, the fact that the crypto sector then took such a heavy beating just a few days later surprised us, too. The enormous volatility in May was mainly due to the preceding excessive speculation with leverage and borrowed money. For example, positions worth more than US$8 billion were closed on numerous exchanges within a few minutes on May 19th through forced liquidations. Also, in the last week falling prices have yet created another wave of liquidations.Overall, bitcoin has at least managed to trade sideways between roughly speaking US$29,000 and US$41,000 in the last five weeks. However, things have not calmed down (yet). The bottom line is that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has experienced turbulent ups and downs and a small gain of about 20%.Technical Analysis for Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin in USD, weekly Chart as of June 27th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the weekly chart, bitcoin temporarily slipped out of its major uptrend channel to the downside. However, with a strong bounce it managed to return to this trend channel. If the bulls can actually defend this steep trend channel, prices below US$30,000 would not be seen in the future. Due to the violent correction in recent weeks, the stochastic oscillator is clearly oversold and would now offer more than enough room for a significant recovery.Overall, bitcoin has been running sideways between US$29,000 and US$41,000 on its weekly chart for several weeks in a very volatile fashion. However, the up-trend is still intact. Hence in case of doubt, the bulls will now at least rehearse a larger recovery.Bitcoin in USD, daily Chart as of June 27th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the daily chart, bitcoin failed to regain the lost exponential 200-day moving average (US$40,200) in recent weeks. As the last attempt failed on June 15th, the bears directly counterattacked. Due to this violent price slide in the order of US$11,000 within only eight days and the resulting extreme oversoldness, the balance of power may now have shifted again in favor of the bulls. The stochastic oscillator for example is not oversold but showing diverging higher lows. Nevertheless, the long wick of Tuesday's daily candle suggests a trend reversal.In summary, the daily chart is still in the short-term downtrend and thus actually bearish. However, the rapid recovery back to US$35,500 within three days allows us to rate the daily chart as slightly bullish. With the Fibonacci retracements, two realistic recovery targets between US$40,000 and US$42,000 as well as between US$49,000 and US$51,000 can be defined. Whether the strength of the bulls will be sufficient towards the second target, however, cannot be said at the moment. If Bitcoin drops below US$30,000 once again, we must assume that lower lows are still to come.Sentiment Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunityBitcoin Optix as of June 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe short-term sentiment data for the Bitcoin reached the panic zone again.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of June 27th, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed IndexAlternative.me’s much more complex and rather long-term sentiment model has been reporting extreme levels of fear in the crypto sector for weeks now. At the start of the week, the model recorded rarely seen lows around 10. Currently its sitting at 22. The panic in the sector might thus have reached an absolute extreme and short-term top.Crypto Fear & Greed Index long-term as of June 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the big picture, the mood is beaten down and depressive.Overall, the quantitative sentiment analysis thus provides clear contrarian buy signals. Of course, the mood can still fall further, but a contrarian entry opportunity looks just exactly like this!Seasonality Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunityBitcoin Seasonality. Source: SeasonaxStatistically, the typical sideways phase for bitcoin during spring ends at the beginning of May. This is often followed by a sharp rally into June and then a sell-off towards October. However, this year bitcoin only reached an important high on April 14th and has been sharply correcting since then. Obviously, the seasonal pattern doesn’t really match up with the price action so far this year.In conclusion, seasonality is basically changing from neutral to red these days. However, the course of the year so far has not been in line with the seasonal pattern.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of June 27th, 2021.Source: TradingviewAt prices of approx. 33,000 USD for a Bitcoin and 1,780 USD for a fine ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio is currently trading at around 18.5. This means you currently have to pay slightly more than 18 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. Put the other way, one troy ounce of gold currently costs about 0.053 bitcoin. Compared to the highs in March and April, bitcoin had initially lost over 56% against gold. However, in recent weeks, the Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio has been consolidating sideways. Looking at the heavily oversold stochastic, a recovery in favor of bitcoin is actually more likely on the short- to medium time horizon. The difficulty, however, is that any movement in bitcoin has a much stronger impact than the other way around due to the larger numbers.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, a maximum of 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold and bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense, you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro Outlook and Crack-Up-Boom UpdateECB Balance sheet as of June 22nd, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB expanded its balance sheet again by EUR 35.6 billion, so that total assets once again jumped to a new all-time high of EUR 7,736.5 billion last week. The ECB’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to 77.7% of the eurozone GDP.However, after the FED on the other side of the Atlantic mentioned 10 days ago that they plan to raise interest rates in two years, there was a significant pullback, especially in the commodity and precious metals markets due to a stronger U.S. Dollar. The crypto markets also sold off significantly again as a result.Actually, it is a bad joke that financial markets are trembling before a possible US interest rate hike in 2023. However, the global financial drama is now completely dependent on the central banks. They use their unprecedented power to play their mass psychological games. So far, this has always worked out well somehow in the past decades. The fact that the required rescue sums have steadily increased over the past 23 years since the first hard intervention in 1998 (long-term capital management crisis) receives only a marginal note in the mainstream media. Even though, it is no longer millions and billions that are needed for rescue, but trillions and soon probably even quadrillions. A truly free financial market, on the other hand, would have long since buried numerous unprofitable business models and probably driven interest rates worldwide to double-digit heights. But this must not and cannot be allowed to happen under any circumstances, as the drop height has become too high and public order could quickly be jeopardized during the overdue cleanup. Therefore, politicians and central bankers simply carry on doing what they are doing. As long as it just somehow works….FED Balance sheet & US Home Prices as of June 23rd, 2021. Source: Holger ZschaepitzThe result is a rampant crack-up-boom in which everything becomes more expensive due to the expansion of the money supply. For example, U.S. house prices have been rising for years in tandem with the expansion of the U.S. money supply. Recently, a new all-time high was reached in tandem.Commodities/Equities-Ratio as of June 21st, 2021. Source: Incrementum AG 2021 and Crescant CapitalIn the big picture, the current pullback in commodities, precious metals and cryptocurrencies should therefore only represent a small dent. Soon, the Fed will have to row back its interest rate statements. Otherwise, the real estate market in the US will quickly get cold feet. A departure from the constant expansion of the currency supply had not been announced anyway. Since global economic growth is on extremely shaky ground and was only artificially generated with the help of global central bank acrobatics, there is no escape from the devaluation policy. All central banks are competing with each other, forcing millions of investors in all countries of the world to flee into real assets (even outside the fiat system). This flight movement will only accelerate. In the short term, however, one is quite well advised to act cautiously and wait and see, because there are still no clear signs of an end to the temporary “risk-off mode”.Conclusion: Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunityThe negative coverage of Bitcoin and Ethereum reached an absurd peak at the start of the week. Of course, the pullback in recent weeks has been hard and deep. But then, that has always been the case in the highly volatile crypto sector. Most weak hands may have been thrown off initially during the 56% setback. The extremely high level of panic (as seen in the sentiment data) now clearly point to a fast approaching turning point.Presumably, the recovery might has already started on Monday afternoon with the low at US$29,250. Possible recovery targets in the coming months are initially sitting around US$40,000 to US$42,000 and US$49,000 to US$51,000.Bitcoin-Future in USD, weekly chart as of June 25th, 2021. Source: TradingviewDepending on how the bitcoin will behave at these marks, it will be easier to assess whether the correction is already over or whether there will have to be another downward wave. In the worst case, there is still an open gap in the bitcoin future between US$24,000 and US$26,500. However, as the situation currently stands, the open gap in the Bitcoin Future on the upside in the range of US$46,650 to US$49,100 might be closed first.Analysis sponsored and initially published on June 23rd, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on June 27th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|June 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Ethereum, Ethereum correction, Gold, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
Stock ATHs, Hesitant Metals and Simmering Inflation

Stock ATHs, Hesitant Metals and Simmering Inflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.06.2021 15:42
S&P 500 keeps powering to new highs, and little wonder – thanks to the infrastructure stimulus euphoria. The return of (at least some) strength into value stocks at expense of tech outside $NYFANG, clearly marks the risk-on shift as much as credit markets do. And what about the much awaited PCE deflator data? The figure aligned with the inflation camp much better, yet the marketplace arguably expects better inflation data ahead - the transitory inflation thesis is the mainstream one, but I‘m still of the opinion that inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated. Markets‘ inflation optimism can be seen in the relatively muted Treasury yields increase. If they were worried as much as before, the spike would have been larger, but we‘re well into the summer lull in the bond markets I announced back in May, with yields rising again in autumn – gradually moving well beyond 2% on the 10-year yield.Contrast the modest yields increase with financials rising, real estate consolidating, and you‘ll come to the conclusion that the path of least resistance for the S&P 500 is still higher. Tech is unlikely to be derailed – and hasn‘t been as value continued its recovery. VIX keeps pushing for new lows, making consecutive series of lower highs, and I also remarked on Friday about the option traders:(…) Depending on tech heavyweights for the lion‘s share of gains isn‘t though an immediate concern – the market breadth is slowly improving after value stocks were bombed out post-FOMC. Signs of life are returning, facilitated by the Fed‘s $8.1T and growing reasons to celebrate, so don‘t be spooked by too many lower knots in VIX when there is no panic in the options arena either.PCE deflator ... is favorable to the Fed as it defers the taper speculation further to the future. Together with the redefinition of how long transitory used to last earlier, and what transitory (inflation) means now, the central bank wins in leaving the punch bowl available for longer (the job market offers plenty of excuses too).As we have to square hawkish-turned-dovish Fed talk with growing monetary (and fiscal) support, the biggest risk would be a hawkish miscalculation. Certainly the evolving position on inflation at the central bank is illustrative of deferring the problem to the future, for it to perhaps go away on its own as job market is talked instead. If only inflation expectations (be they TIP:TLT or RINF) cooperated… It looks to me the inflation trades are merely consolidating now before another upleg – CRB index has already erased all the post-FOMC plunge, with materials (XLB ETF) having much further to go before the damage there gets repaired too.Gold and miners remain petrified for now, modestly resilient vs. the daily increase in nominal yields, and not reacting to the stubborn current inflation, let alone future one. Treasury yield spreads though show the markets aren‘t expecting inflation to run out of control. Even the red metal dipped on the positive inflation news, sending the copper to 10-year yield ratio to the bottom of its recent range. The explanation lies in the dollar resilience, keeping a lid on precious metals in the on-off tightening rhetoric, regardless of where real rates and TIPS are now and about to go.Crude oil keeps though trending higher, offering brief dips that are all too fast reversed. The bullish outlook is on, and oil stocks paint a great future ahead – the associated volatility might not be always pleasant, but black gold is far from making a top..Cryptos base building hypothesis still hasn‘t been invalidated, and the weekend rebound actually confirmed it. Steep upswing on high volume though is missing as much as moving back to the upper ranges of the post mid-May plunge.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is going higher, with tech stocks taking a breather as the stock market breadth widens.Credit MarketsThe return of risk-on in credit markets, is on.Technology and ValueUnder the sectoral S&P 500 hood, we see the advance being driven by value stocks rebound, and $NYFANG, which is a little contradictory message – explained only by the market taking note of persistent inflation.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and miners still keep going nowhere – there is no momentary sign of strength, and actually creeping deterioration as also seen in the selling into GDX strength. Bigger move is coming – keep an eye on the miners. Silver isn‘t yet leading gold, and the copper move was at odds with the 10-year Treasury yield one. Precious metals are obviously afraid of tightening, but they would be led by real assets (commodities including copper) in readjusting to the current MMT on steroids still reality.Crude OilAdd in the reopenings, increased economic activity, and supply picture, and you‘ll get the highly resilient crude oil – bullish chart primed for further gains.SummaryS&P 500 keeps reaching higher as value is coming back to life, and Nasdaq consolidates – yet another rotation in the ongoing bull market.Gold and silver short-term bullish momentum is absent, miners are weak, and the dollar upswing risk can‘t be overlooked – precious metals are ignoring real rates and inflation at the moment, and are still basing.Crude oil seesaw ended shortly after Friday‘s open, and the consolidation has indeed been resolved with higher prices, supported by rising oil equities.Bitcoin and Ethereum are no longer hanging by a thread, but need to approach the upper border of their recent range to improve their short-term outlook noticeably.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

USDX, Gold: The Hunter and the Prey

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.06.2021 16:44
Just before the hunt begins, the hunter needs to be sure its prey feels safe. Will we see a promising short-term rally in gold?After the USD Index reasserted its dominance once again, its bellowing howl sent shivers down the spine of currency traders. When the U.S. Dollar Index is on the hunt, the precious metals are often its prey. The alpha wolf is poised to lead the pack over the medium term, and the sheep will likely be sent to the slaughter, but the predator needs to gather force first; a peaceful period of prosperity should ensue over the next several days. And this short-term decline could help uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks.To explain, I warned last week that a short-term decline was likely after the USD Index’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) jumped above 70. And after eliciting some weakness, another pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level also aligns with the price action that we witnessed in 2016.Please see below:To that point, after the USD Index broke above its short-term declining resistance line in 2016, it followed that up by retreating a bit below its rising support (dashed) line and then consolidated for about a month before rallying sharply. In the process, the USD Index corrected to approximately its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level before rallying once again (in fact, it moved slightly below it). For context, there was also a huge intraday reversal in the following days, but it was an event-driven one (it was when Donald Trump won the elections), so it’s unlikely to be repeated. As of today, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at about 91.3, the USDX could bottom close to this level. Now, this might not seem like a big deal, but it becomes quite important once one considers what happened in gold during the final part of the move to the 38.2% retracement in 2016. That was when gold made most of its gains.However, given the yellow metal’s inability to bounce after its profound decline, the forthcoming rally will likely be weaker than originally expected. For context, the initial projection was based on the similarity to gold’s behavior in 2012. However, with the yellow metal struck in neutral and failing to gain any traction, the current environment seems more bearish than it was in 2012. The bearish gold price forecasts currently seem justified , in the medium term.Moreover, if the USD Index can surpass 93, the greenback will complete its inverse head & shoulders pattern, and the milestone implies a short-term target of roughly 98.Let’s keep in mind that the near-term decline in the USD Index is likely to be small – and nothing more than a blip on the radar screen, when viewed from the long-term point of view. The USD Index often records material upswings during the middle of the year. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that summertime surges have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record. Likewise, double bottoms often signal the end of major declines and often ignite significant rallies. For example, in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights. In addition, back in 2008, U.S. equities’ plight added even more wind to the USD Index’s sails. And if the general stock market suffers another profound decline (along with gold miners and silver ), a sharp re-rating of the USDX is likely in the cards.Please see below (quick reminder: you can click on the chart to enlarge it):If that wasn’t enough, the thesis is also supported by the USD Index’s long-term chart. To explain, the USDX’s long-term breakout remains intact, and if we steady the binoculars, the greenback’s uptrend is clearly in place.Please see below:Moving on to the Euro Index, the recent symmetrical decline mirrors the drawdown that we witnessed in mid-2020. And if the Euro Index breaks below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, the slide could be fast and furious. For context, completion of the right shoulder signals a decline to (roughly) the June 2020 lows or even lower. However, with a short-term corrective downswing in the USD Index likely to usher the Euro Index higher, the development should help support gold, silver, and mining stocks this week.Please see below:For context, I wrote previously:The completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign. That’s another point for the bearish price prediction for gold.Circling back to the 2016 analogue, the USD Index has already hopped into the time machine. And with the flashback eliciting memories of past glory, a reenactment won’t be applauded by the PMs.As you can see on the above chart, what we saw this year was quite similar to what happened in 2016. The analogy that I described previously worked just like in the past. Namely, the back-and-forth movement after the breakout was followed by a quick rally.The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is outperforming the Eurozone and the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index – the relative performance is what really matters .In conclusion, while wolves will likely circle gold, silver and mining stocks over the medium term, the leader of the pack – the USD Index – is well-fed for now and shouldn’t disrupt the precious metals’ short-term corrective upswing. However, when its stomach growls and the hunt continues, the alpha’s bared teeth, fixed stare, and horizontal ears may scare gold, silver and mining stocks to death. Thus, while the precious metals are likely safe in the short term, the nights might grow colder and darker even amid the summer sun.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Hits Resistance

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 29.06.2021 09:58
USDJPY struggles to clear offersThe Japanese yen bounces back after a rise in April’s retail trade figure, while the US dollar struggles to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 111.00.Yesterday’s bullish momentum above 110.85 has faded. This suggests a lack of commitment from the buy-side. Short-term price action could become vulnerable if 110.40 fails to hold. The pair may retest 109.80 should that happen.Otherwise, by lifting offers around 111.10 the bulls could expect a runaway rally towards February 2020’s peak at 112.00.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar pulls back as risk appetite abates earlier this week. The pair has met resistance at 0.7610, previously a demand zone now turned into a supply zone.Sentiment remains mixed after the mid-June sell-off. Indeed, buyers are likely to test the water before committing themselves.The Aussie may seek support at 0.7540. Further down, 0.7500 is a critical level to keep the rebound relevant. On the upside, a break above 0.7610 may attract momentum players and open the path towards 0.7700.GER 30 awaits breakoutThe Dax 30 inches up, thanks to the support from last week’s recovery momentum.Price action has spent the past week consolidating gains after a V-shaped rebound. The narrowing range indicates stiff pressure from both sides and a breakout would dictate the direction for the days to come.The bulls are striving to push back to the previous high at 15800. Then the psychological all-time high of 16000 would be within reach. On the downside, a drop below 15500 would prolong the correction to 15400.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Bitcoin, eighty percent rule based

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.06.2021 13:04
In short, what to do and when to do it is leveraged since you make a sizeable money bet, and your typical resource for such stress (e.g., intuition) is not just worthless but the worst choice in a counterintuitive environment. In addition, we use a tool called “the daily call” to plan ahead. The daily call is a strategy planning outside trading hours to gauge the market and lay strict rules of “what not to do” to reduce losing trades.It is these refined rule structures and plans that allow us to always stay calm when Bitcoin trades with its volatility nerve-racking around turning points for the unprepared. We see little alternative to catch important low-risk entry points for long-term trades like the one coming up right now for this digital currency.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, What happened since last week?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 29th, 2021.Opportunities are plentiful when it comes to Bitcoin. Which makes this sequenced rule-based behavior especially necessary. Our last weekly chartbook publication posted the chart above (left side with grey background). Less than 48 hours after publication, the assumed scenario manifested. It was this precise planning that allowed us an entry at US$29,176.3. We took half of the position off at US$31,804.3. Therefore, eliminated risk and locked in some partial profits (see our quad strategy). This trading method allowed for stress-free observation of the quick retest of lows following with wiggle room for the stop level. It isn’t clear if this was the ultimate turning point in this sideways zone that Bitcoin is trading right now. More likely than not, one of our efforts grabbing the lows of this range might succeed. If not, income-producing partial profit-taking pays for our efforts.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Long term entry validation:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 29th, 2021.A weekly chart analysis grants a view that monthly/yearly charts have now a confirmed weekly entry setup. Present is a low-risk long entry with lower price rejections set (see wicks in yellow ellipse). We would aim in more partial profit taking slightly below recent all-time highs. We would expect these highs to give way for prices to climb much higher. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, And the winner is:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 29th, 2021.It is an incredible feat to time, no matter how high a timeframe, a millisecond entry of a push of a button which might have significant effects on your future, and consequences materialize years from that little action of your finger. Such steps are far removed from a typical task where you shovel a hole in the ground and see with each stroke of the spate your results in real-time. In the familiar environment, cognitive aspects are aligned with intuitive physical behavior.But it isn’t the ‘doing’ that gets you rich in the markets, but rather good planning, little work, and lots of patience. Due to these circumstances, it is imperative to always look at the larger timeframes. This will create a much broader perspective and will help to not get lost in the casualties of Bitcoin´s daily volatility. Temptations that easily lure one in for overtrading.Observing the monthly chart, we find beauty in its simplicity. Prices trade above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Fractal volume analysis in addition grants support. And with this month nearly closing, we seem to be having two months showing wicks to the downside rejecting lower price levels. To us a setup for taking a low-risk entry at the beginning of July. Given that present levels hold till the end of the second quarter.If prices decline sharply before month’s end, all bets are off.You will find confirmations within our free Telegram channel, where we post all our market entries and exits in real-time.Rarely do stars align that nicely, yet we have found the mind again playing tricks, especially for easy trades. Without a precise rule-based sequence and detailed entry and exit planning, human errors are guaranteed.Why is it eighty percent and not a hundred? The market has too many variables to be tamed by a purely left-brained approach. It requires experience (=screen time), creativity, and some thinking outside the box to make the market give up profits consistently to the trader.Bitcoin, eighty percent rule-based:Why a tightly knitted web of rules is necessary is to be able to execute one’s plan. Have you ever wondered why you ran a stop or, numerous times in a row, betrayed your own plan? Simple! When too many question marks arise within the flow to commit to trade by actually pressing the button, it gets harder and harder to pull the trigger. Conflicts are eating away confidence. There is a necessity of a clear, sequenced rule-based event chain to act without hesitation consistently. We found that a well-rehearsed scenario with clarity to act in your own best interest is one way to step into this field of uncertainty and repeatedly act on your plan. The alternative is a bad relationship between a well-developed edge and the ability to act upon these edges. Most of the time, this causes human errors. Consequently, the edge is mitigated to that extent that one consistently loses money.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto buying opportunity, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Credit Spreads Declined Unprecedentedly. Will Gold Follow?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.06.2021 16:23
When credit spreads narrow, it’s bad for gold. But this time there is a silver lining we can look for, although it’s quite adverse for the economy.There are several important factors affecting gold prices. Many analysts focus mainly on the US dollar and real interest rates . However, what is sometimes even more important is economic confidence. Of course, the level of economic confidence is partially reflected in the strength of the greenback and the bond yields . However, I would like to focus today on credit spreads , an often overlooked indicator of economic confidence.Why such a topic? It’s simple, just take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread, which is a proxy for a spread between the yield on below-investment-grade-rated corporate debt and Treasuries of the same duration, has recently declined to a very low level. To be more precise, the analyzed indicator slid from almost 11 in March 2020 to 3.1 at the end of June (the lowest reading since July 2007 , the time just before the Great Recession started).Implications for GoldOK, great, but what does this mean for the gold market? Well, this is a negative development for gold prices, but with a silver lining . Let me explain. When credit spreads are narrow or in a narrowing trend, it means that economic confidence is high or in a rising trend. In such an environment, risk appetite is strong and demand for safe-haven assets such as gold is low. The fact that credit spreads have reached their multi-decade lows indicates that the economic expansion is doing well. If the boom continues, the Fed will eventually normalize its monetary policy a bit, and the interest rates will increase. Additionally, US banks have cleared the Fed’s recent stress tests, which means that they will no longer face restrictions on how much they can spend buying back stock and paying dividends. This change might strengthen the financial sector, additionally boosting economic confidence among investors. And this is all bad for the yellow metal.However, we can look at very low credit spreads from the other side. After all, they have already decreased profoundly and further significant declines are not very likely. Furthermore, the last time they were so narrow was mid-2007, i.e., just a couple of months before the outbreak of the global financial crisis .Hence, it might be the calm before the storm . The economic crisis , by definition, occurs when confidence is high and almost nobody expects any problems. A related issue here is whether the markets are properly assessing the risk. The low risk premium partially results from the low Treasury yields, which push investors who seek profits into riskier securities.Some analysts point out the risks related to the surge in the public debt or inflation . For example, David Goldman notes that the rising gap between prices paid by the producers and prices received by customers ( June Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey ) could depress output in the future, as companies wouldn’t be able to maintain profit margins in such an environment.The bottom line is that the US economy has recovered and the economic expansion continues undisturbed. Given this trend and high economic confidence, despite the soaring prices and indebtedness, gold may struggle for some time .However, credit spreads may widen abruptly when the next crisis hit, as they did in the aftermath of the collapse of the Lehman Brothers . In other words, although the economic confidence is strong, some important downside risks for the US economy are still present, and they could materialize later in the future . Perhaps investors know this – according to the WGC , we saw inflows to the gold ETFs last week, despite the plunge in gold prices. It shows that investors could have been taking advantage of lower prices to buy gold as a portfolio diversifier and protection against tail risks .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Getting a TAN and Sticking with Working Strategies

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.06.2021 18:05
Another day, another all-time high seems to have been the prevailing theme lately. Sticking with working strategies and themes may seem challenging, but fighting the tape is not the answer.It can feel counterintuitive for traders to go with the trend sometimes. I know! A trader may see a chart going from the bottom left of the chart to the upper right-hand corner and wants to take the other side of the trade badly, even though it is counter-trend. Logic might dictate that whatever market you are following should be selling off, and it continues roaring higher like a roaring bull. While I am not trying to be oversimplified here, I want to reiterate that the trend is indeed your friend .Even when many technical indicators might indicate that a market is overbought (or oversold), a market will oftentimes continue moving in the same direction, leaving many counter-trend traders in its wake. This is the reason that buying pullbacks in a bull market has been the focus here, opposed to trying to pick tops. It is never easy picking tops and bottoms in any market.This is the major reason that I like to revisit what has been working.Looking back at the US equity markets over the last couple of weeks, the theme seemed to be bipolar at face value; but has it really? If we take out the fundamental development of the Fed changing stance on interest rates, has the price action been anything more than typical?Figure 1 - S&P 500 Index May 18, 2021 - June 29, 2021, 10:00 AM, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comI know it felt like the sky was falling when the Fed changed its stance on future interest rate guidance. In reality, the pullback was pedestrian on the day of the event, and the subsequent market digestion brought the S&P 500 to the 50-day SMA (slightly below) for a short period. There is nothing so spectacular about that. It is just the sign of a healthy bull market.Looking at the pullback that we saw two weeks ago, it was approximately 2.24%. It felt like it was a larger selloff than that, right? That is what happens when the markets are fired up with emotion, and everyone has their take on what is going to happen next.In reality, if a trader had a plan to buy the pullback at a predefined level, the news of the projected interest rate hikes was just a vanilla buying opportunity. Our readers were prepared, as we have been analyzing what has been working recently: buying the $SPX at the 50-day moving average as detailed on several occasions - including the June 10th publication . It was on our shopping list, and waiting for the pullback was indeed the right move.It takes discipline, patience, and execution.As the S&P 500 has marched higher since touching the 50-day moving average, we currently have the daily RSI(14) sitting near 65-66 and the index trading near the psychologically round number of 4300. Many traders may use these metrics to take some chips off the table . However, is shorting the market there the right thing to do? Some traders may try, some may succeed, and some will lose. The important message of the day is to trade with the trend, and have a plan in place when conditions are right.It is not to say that buying dips is the only way. For example, our Premium subscribers were alerted to TAN Invesco Solar ETF in our June 15th publication.Figure 2 - TAN Invesco Solar ETF April 27, 2021 - June 29, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comOn June 14th, TAN closed above its 50-day moving average for the first time in a long time. While this entry seems like more of a momentum-based entry, it is important to note that TAN had undergone a long period of consolidation and pullback .Figure 3 - TAN Invesco Solar ETF May 8, 2020 - June 29, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comSo, in this case, we identified a market with a good theme that has pulled back for an extended period. For a trigger, a close above the 50-day SMA made sense.Let’s take a look in more detail at TAN for any premium subscribers that have open positions. Did I mention that TAN was the top-performing ETF of all unleveraged ETFs yesterday? It was up 6.29% on June 28, 2021.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
High Returns in Real Assets and Tech

High Returns in Real Assets and Tech

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.06.2021 16:06
S&P 500 at new highs, is the predictable daily refrain almost. Risk-on credit markets and not so risk-on stock market sectoral overview, aren‘t an obstacle as tech can be depended upon for the delivery of gains. The degree of value underperformance is the other variable – market breadth though keeps improving under the surface as declining yields aren‘t biting value stocks as much. Real estate and homebuilders keep doing fine, healthcare in spite of the significant biotech underperformance too, and energy with materials and industrials haven‘t said their last word either.VIX keeps behaving and so does the put/call ratio – we‘re into the summer lull in the bond market, and the mostly sideways trading in the benchmark 10-year yield, is highly conducive to the above sectoral snapshot. The slowly strengthening dollar is what to keep an eye on, especially as regards precious metals and commodities. As I wrote yesterday:(…) there is little to upset the cart – Thursday‘s ISM manufacturing will probably show solid expansion, and it would be only Friday‘s non-farm payrolls (better said what effect these could have on the Fed‘s labor market rationale for keeping the punch bowl available) to bring about volatile trading.Inflation would do the unsettling trick, but inflation expectations are telling us indeed to be patient this season – I‘m still of the opinion that:(…) inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated. The Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation even according to El-Erian, and its monetary actions support both the Treasury markets and the red hot real estate. The lull in Treasuries is likely to last into the autumn, and the ensuing yields increase would reflect both the economic recovery and newfound appreciation of inflation. I maintain we‘re still in a reflation – a period of economic growth stronger than inflation – in a multi-year economic expansion, and also that inflation will surprise those considering it transitory (as if this word had any meaning still attached, after all the time length redefinitions). As a side note, if only consumer price inflation was measured without substitution, hedonistic adjustments, and owner‘s equivalent rent.Precious metals are on the defensive – on one hand, being hurt by the inflation-had-peaked assumptions, on the other, disregarding the ample monetary support. PMs sentiment is negative, and miners aren‘t offering a glimmer of hope – just a daily rebound attempt yesterday that partially fizzled out. Good for starters, but a lot more needs to happen. On a bullish note though, copper and CRB performance is boding well – the money printing tide lifting all boats, at various rates and times.Crude oil remains arguably most resilient of the pack, and the rising economic activity prospects are likely to outweigh the production quota increase uncertainty. Oil stocks though need more time to catch their breadth, and the commodity remains likely to outperform them.Cryptos gave up some recent gains, in what appears to be merely a correction. Ethereum keeps doing relatively better, which is a strong indicator in favor of the base building hypothesis turning into accumulation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is going higher, with tech stocks still in the driver‘s seat – without as much as a daily consolidation.Credit MarketsCredit markets are back to risk-on, with TLT visibly having issues to rise too much.Technology and ValueTech remains primarily driven by $NYFANG, with value having another weak day on retreating yields.Inflation ExpectationsTreasury yields aren‘t following the TIP:TLT inflation expectations to the downside – bonds aren‘t entirely buying the inflation retreat story. Rightfully so, because it‘s temporary in perspective only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold reluctantly followed miners to the downside – the pressure had been building over many prior days. The retrace in both signifies that the bulls aren‘t throwing in the towel. Looking at copper and silver, rightfully so.Crude OilI‘m taking the energy sector‘s underperformance with a pinch of salt.SummaryS&P 500 keeps consolidating yesterday‘s lackluster session gains, preparing for a fresh upswing whenever Nasdaq is ready to rise again.Gold and silver are on the defensive in the short-term, and it would be too early to declare stabilization in the miners as completed. As precious metals keep ignoring real rates and inflation, sustained bullish momentum is far away.Crude oil chart remains bullish above the weak $72 or stronger $70 supports, and the steep energy sector decline won‘t likely last long.Bitcoin and Ethereum are having a daily pullback, but the Ethereum outperformance hasn‘t been lost. The base building hypothesis grows in strength, and overcoming the recent corrective highs followed by the 200-day moving averages, are the next medium-term objectives.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Tests Important Support

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 01.07.2021 09:43
GBPUSD rests on daily supportThe sterling fell back after the UK’s GDP contracted more than expected in Q1. Indeed, the pair is now back to square one after it gave up gains from the previous rebound.The psychological level of 1.4000 has been a tough resistance to crack. The lack of momentum suggests that sentiment remains downbeat. The pair is retesting 1.3790, a key support from the daily timeframe.A bearish breakout would trigger a new round of sell-off to 1.3700. On the upside, a recovery may be choppy with 1.3940 as the first resistance to lift.USDCAD rises towards recent peakThe Canadian dollar remains underwater after April’s negative growth.Sentiment has turned in favor of the greenback once again as it climbs above 1.2400. This indicates buyers’ commitment to recoup all losses from previous sessions.The bullish MA cross out of the short-lived consolidation may pull more trend followers to the rally. A break above 1.2480 would trigger an extended rally towards 1.2600.The RSI has slipped back into the neutral area. The former resistance at 1.2330 is a support in case of a limited pullback.USOIL bounces off bullish trendlineWTI rose back after data showed US inventories dropped by 8.2 million barrels last week.Price action has bounced off the rising trendline (72.00) from late May while the RSI was in an oversold situation. This indicates that the ball is still on the bulls’ side. The uptrend is valid as long as the trendline remains intact.Volatility helps buyers accumulate stakes. 72.80 is the closest support along the line. For more cautious traders, a break above 74.40 would confirm trend continuation.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold Suffered in June - Will It Rebound in 2021?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.07.2021 15:29
June was a terrible month for gold. Without a fresh crisis or a strong dovish signal from the Fed, gold may continue its disappointing performance.June wasn’t too kind to gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal plunged more 7.2% in the last month , the biggest monthly decline since November 2016. In consequence of the June rout, the whole first half of this year was awful for gold, which lost 6.6% in that period, the worst performance since H1 2013.The dive was a result of the latest Fed’s dot-plot published in the aftermath of the June FOMC meeting which showed that the US central bankers could want to hike the federal funds rate earlier than previously thought . Although the dot-plot is not a reliable forecast of what the Fed will do, and a quarter-point hike in the interest rates in two years from now isn’t particularly hawkish , the change was sufficient to alter the crowd psychology. As a result, the market narrative has shifted from “the Fed will tolerate higher inflation, staying behind the curve” to “the Fed won’t allow inflation to run wild and will hike earlier because of the stronger inflationary pressure”.The subsequent comments from the Fed officials helped to consolidate the new narrative . For example, only this week Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, noted that the US central bank has made “substantial further progress” toward its inflation goal in order to begin tapering quantitative easing . Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Fed could begin tapering as soon as this year to have an option of hiking interest rates by late next year. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, went even further, saying that he “would prefer [a] sooner” start of reducing the pace of Fed’s asset purchases than the end of the year.The hawkish U-turn among the Fed led to higher nominal bond yields , real interest rates , and a stronger US dollar , which also contributed to gold’s weakness. Meanwhile, inflation expectations reversed in June after a peak in May, which increased the real yields and also hit gold prices.Implications for GoldWhat do the changes in the Fed’s stance on the monetary policy and the market’s new narrative imply for gold? Well, the hawkish revolution is fundamentally negative for the yellow metal . Investors are now less worried about higher inflation , as they believe that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy sooner than previously thought. Such expectations boost the market interest rates, making the dollar more attractive compared to its major peers, while non-interest-bearing assets such as gold become less alluring.However, this narrative, like all narratives, may quickly change. If we see more disappointing economic data coming, the Fed could return to its previous dovish stance . Also, if high inflation turns out to be more persistent or disruptive than expected, the demand for inflation hedges or safe-haven assets such as gold may increase again.Furthermore, if inflation turns out to be merely transitory, as the Fed and the pundits believe, the US central bank will remain behind the curve, and gold may survive . Or, the Fed will have to lift the interest rates aggressively, increasing the risk of recession .What is important here, the yield curve has already flattened. It is still high and far from the negative territory, but the peak is behind us. Thus, gold will suffer initially because of the hawkish Fed only to rebound later during the next economic crisis . But well, it seems that gold indeed needs a new catalyst to rally , and without any crises or dovish signals sent by the Fed, it will struggle .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Silver, all aboard

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.07.2021 16:20
We find various cycles aligning, both historical time cycles and price trading cycles. When inter-market inflection points fall in place in addition, we know sooner or later the train will depart.It will be of little consequence what final match will launch the rocket thrusters, but you do not want to be late for the firework.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Don’t miss out!Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 1st, 2021.There are times where you want to trade confirmed (late entries), and there are times where you need to be ahead of the curve.When we last year advised physical silver purchase at US$12.00, it took only two days until the spread from spot prices versus actual physical silver acquisition prices spread wide open. This spread reached eventually beyond a 25% difference. Quickly small denomination coins were sold out as well.The early entry provided a 150% gain compared to the multiyear range breakout with 50% gains. The significant difference is risk. A breakout scenario always carries inherent risk and on a typically already volatile trading instrument like Silver especially.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Early means low risk:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 1st, 2021.Furthermore, when silver moves, it moves quickly. If entry prices move away quickly, it represents a risk: the later your move, the more comprehensive your stop.The weekly chart above shows how prices doubled in just three weeks. Trading along with the crowd (confirmed late entries) isn’t the game, and the term “you snooze, you lose” comes to mind. With the physical acquisition comes a whole other bag of flees along. Nibbling at least on a small position size at an earlier stage might be the more advisable course of action. Should you then miss the train, you still have some skin in the game.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Realistic projections:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 1st, 2021.From a large timeframe perspective, there are risks as well. With Gold trading at high levels per ounce and an evident demand of banks and other prominent players, Gold could become unaffordable for small retail investors. This would force typical gold investors to look for the next best thing, Silver.While many boast spectacular targets with precise numbers, we try to stay humble not to evoke unnecessary emotions (greed, fear of missing out), hindering trading. A simple study of second legs in Silver and related markets as a sum typically is approx. 2.3x factor of the first leg (US$11,64 to US$30.09). This suggests a good risk/reward ratio.Silver, all aboard:Our confidence about a substantial Silver move stems from the fact that historically news-loaded congestion zones break eventually for significant price changes. We find that both, fundamentals and technicals, point towards a second-leg development that could be nothing short of astounding in price movement. Physical prices will mirror that with a high likelihood of supply shortages and, as such, an even more volatile move where acquisition prices could be substantially higher than the spot price.In times of monetary uncertainties, holding physical Silver is more than just insurance. In our humble opinion more likely a necessity. It doesn’t have to be sizeable but should be present in your wealth-creating and even more wealth-preserving portfolio.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 1st, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Roaring Comeback of Reflation and Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.07.2021 15:45
S&P 500 broadening leadership and fresh reflationary ATHs are here – the FOMC „tightening“ hit notwithstanding. Energy, financials and industrials I discussed yesterday and before, were among the leaders, with tech not staying far behind. Crucially, the tech breadth was also improving – such rotations are the stock bull market‘s health. Neither the VIX nor the put/call ratio are arguing. The sentiment going into today‘s non-farm payrolls, remains constructive, and unlikely to result in reconstruction of the Fed tightening bets. Such was my real-time Twitter interpretation.Credit markets remained constructive, and risk-on this time – that‘s in line with value upswing, accompanied by the Treasury yields‘ inability to retreat further. Near the top of its recent range, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading within the summer bond market calm atmosphere, and so are the beaten down inflation expectations at a time when:(…) the dollar is catching a strong bid. We‘re still in a reflation, in the reopening trades stage – one where inflation expectations have been (unduly) hammered down while inflation hasn‘t taken a corresponding turn. Notably, commodities haven‘t been derailed in the least, so pay no attention to lumber – the real assets‘ world is much richer and profitable.Remember the big picture – fiscal stimulus very much on, monetary accomodation aggressive, no worries about the economic expansion slowing down. Pickup in economic activity associated with inventories replenishment is sure to be kicking reliably on. Open long profits in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can keep growing!Precious metals are waking up from their slumber, not meaningfully led higher by the miners yet, but base building and peeking higher. Yesterday‘s thoughts apply for days and weeks to come:(…) stabilized post FOMC, as the real rates effect and underestimated inflation is working in their favor. Coupled with commodities on fire, more than partially suspect Fed tightening and tapering promises, silver is the metal that would do better on the rebound after the smackdown. And it did yesterday.Crude oil was catapulted higher on the Saudia Arabia – Russia negotiation speculation, but the production increase is the figure to watch today. Below 500,000 barrels per day, it‘s expected to be $WTIC bullish, but a bigger figure shouldn‘t be surprising. The $76 - $77 area in oil looks tough to crack this week, so taking respectable oil profits off the table early yesterday, was a good move. Regardless of the oil stocks strength, a temporary, volatile (countertrend) move shouldn‘t surprise today.Crypto bears are still probing lower values in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the short-term balance of forces appears flipping into their favor - Ethereum is getting hit comparatively more.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is going higher, with tech marginally contributing to the advance.Credit MarketsCredit markets performance was clearly risk-on yesterday, but the time for quality debt instruments to play a little catch up (in the corporate space), looks approaching.Technology and ValueThe anticipated value upswing extended gains yesterday, bringing it almost within spitting distance of prior highs. At the same time, tech scored gains too.Gold, Silver and MinersGold rebounded even though miners didn‘t confirm – as said yesterday, the yield-inflation spread is getting too out of whack here, let alone the mispriced inflation expectations.Silver and copper declined yesterday, but their recent consolidation patterns haven‘t been broken – upswing continuation remains likely here.Crude OilCrude oil remains strong, but vulnerable to today‘s headline risk.SummaryS&P 500 keeps trading near its highs, with a bullish bias, characterized by sectoral rotations and improving market breadth including in Nasdaq.Gold and silver bulls are getting on the move, as the depressed nominal yields are helping attract buying interest – real rates at work.Crude oil is momentarily vulnerable, but its strongly bullish chart isn‘t in danger of being derailed in the still solidly expanding real economy across the world.Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls are again on the short-term defensive, but the weekly charts posture isn‘t yet in jeopardy. The bulls though are losing a tactical advantage.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

FED: U.S. Cocktail of Growth and Inflation

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.07.2021 16:06
The inflationary cauldron continues to boil. However, the USDX and Treasuries are undervalued relative to U.S. GDP growth prospects. What’s going on?The Rising Tide of InflationWhile investors are all-in on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) “transitory” narrative, the inflationary cauldron continues to boil. Case in point: the IHS Markit released its manufacturing PMI on Jul. 1 and the report read that “June PMI data from IHS Markit signaled the joint-fastest improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector on record.”Please see below:Moreover, demand remained resilient:“New orders growth remained substantial in June, despite the rate of expansion easing from May's historic high. The pace of increase was the second-fastest on record, with firms continuing to note marked upturns in demand from both new and existing clients.”More importantly, though:“Suppliers' delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent on record in June, as component shortages and transportation issues exacerbated supply-chain woes. Subsequently, vendors hiked their charges. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since data collection for the series began in May 2007 , as greater global demand for inputs put pressure on material shortages. Manufacturers were able to partially pass on higher costs to clients, however, as the rate of charge inflation matched May's historic peak .”Please see below: Source: IHS MarkitOn top of that, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI (also released on Ju1. 1) had a similar message: Source: IHS Markit, J.P. MorganThus, while FED Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on Jun. 22 that the U.S. economy "is still a ways off” and that "we will not raise interest rates preemptively because we fear the possible onset of inflation., we will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances:”The FED increased its 2021 real GDP growth forecast from 6.5% to 7.0% on Jun. 16.The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index rose by 3.91% year-over-year (YoY) on Jun. 25 and came in ahead of the FED’s revised forecast of 3.4%.The bottom line? Powell’s gambit is a classic case of ‘do as I say, not as I do.’To that point, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast from 4.6% to 7.0% on Jul. 1 (pending the passage of U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent infrastructure package).Please see below: Source: ReutersSimilarly, The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) doubled its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast on Jul. 1. Excerpts from the report read:“As the pandemic eases and demand for consumer services surges, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is projected to increase by 7.4% and surpass its potential (maximum sustainable) level by the end of 2021.In CBO’s projections, employment grows quickly in the second half of 2021 —reflecting increased demand for goods and services and the waning of factors dampening the supply of labor, including health concerns and enhanced unemployment insurance benefits.”In addition, the group’s “PCE price index” forecast of a 2.8% YoY rise is still too low, and forthcoming prints will likely surprise to the upside.Please see below: Source: CBOPiecing it all together: with economic growth projected to reach the levels last seen in 1984, does the FED need to purchase a combined $120 billion worth of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities per month? As a reminder, the FED’s daily reverse repurchase agreements averaged $642 billion in June and the transactions essentially negated 5.35 months’ worth of QE in the last month alone. However, the psychological effect isn’t the same as an actual taper announcement.Please see below:The U.S. 10-Year Treasury YieldOn top of that, the last time U.S. economic growth hit 7%, the USD Index and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield reached highs of 151 and 11% respectively. And while similar strength is unlikely to emerge this time around, it’s still a reminder of how low the pair’s current readings are relative to the prospective GDP growth.To that point, while the long-end of the U.S. yield curve remains in its own little world, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield to end 2021 at 1.90% (roughly 44 basis points higher than the Jul. 1 close).Please see below:Likewise, Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), predicts that the U.S. cocktail of growth and inflation should result in higher long-term interest rates in the coming months. Source: ReutersAs further evidence, following the spike in the headline PCE Index on Jun. 25, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is now trading at its lowest level relative to realized inflation since the mid-1970s.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline PCE Index. If you analyze the relationship, it’s been nearly 50 years since the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has underperformed to this degree. As a result, while the front-end of the U.S. yield curve (2s, 3s, 5s) is destined to move higher as the taper talk heats up, participation from the long-end (10s, 20s, 30s) will only add to the PMs’ ills.The USD Up, the EUR DownFurthermore, with the FED’s hawkish shift lighting a fire under the greenback, U.S.-Eurozone growth differentials should also propel the USD Index higher over the medium term. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index.To that point, I warned on Apr. 8 that a shift in the central bank sentiment would uplift the U.S. dollar over the medium term.I wrote:On Mar. 31, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its fourth quarter Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). The U.S. dollar’s fourth-quarter share of allocated FX reserves fell to its lowest level since 1995, and coincidentally, the USD Index often tracks global central banks’ net-purchases of U.S. dollars (25-year correlation of 0.70).And with a current reading of 59%, you may be thinking: the ‘death of the dollar’ is unfolding before our eyes. Keep in mind though: global central banks often behave like average investors. Meaning? They buy after an uptrend is already in place. Case in point: since 1995, 83% of major USD Index bottoms were followed by an increase in allocated FX reserves . For context, the largest increase occurred from 2014 to 2015 (2.67%), while the lone decrease occurred from 2018 to 2019 (– 1.21%).Please see below:In addition, because the current reading of 59% is 1.70 standard deviations (SD) below the 25-year average, there is a ~4.5% chance that dollar-share declines in the coming months and a ~95.5% chance that dollar-share increases (applying standard normal probabilities).Fast forward to the present, and the IMF announced on Jun. 30 that the U.S. dollar’s share of allocated FX reserves increased from 58.94% to 59.54%.Please see below:In addition, I warned that the euro would likely head in the opposite direction:The euro is another critical component. Following the same script, global central banks often buy the euro after it rises and sell the euro after it falls. More importantly though, euro-share has a seven-year correlation of 0.92 with the EUR/USD . For context, euro-share is currently 0.30 SD above its seven-year average, which implies a ~62% chance of moving lower in the coming months.And surprise, surprise, the euro’s share of allocated FX reserves decreased from 21.29% to 20.57%.Please see below:The bottom line?While central banks have warmed up to the U.S. dollar once again, its current share of allocated FX reserves is still 1.53 SD below its 25-year average (which implies a ~93.7% chance of moving higher). Thus, if the momentum continues, it could add to the PMs selling pressure in the coming months.Nonfarm Payrolls Incoming!Finally, with U.S. nonfarm payrolls scheduled for release today, I noted that outperformance likely won’t materialize until August or September. However, with initial jobless claims (released on Jul. 1) coming in better than expected – at 364,000 vs. 390,000 expected – the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) revealed that “this is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020, when it was 256,000.”Please see below: Source: DOLAnd while it’s more of a wild card at this point, U.S. nonfarm payrolls have been lagging behind the recent decline in initial claims.To explain, the red line above tracks U.S. nonfarm payrolls, while the green line above tracks inverted initial jobless claims. For context, inverted means that the latter’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising green line represents falling initial jobless claims, while a falling green line represents rising initial jobless claims. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that U.S. nonfarm payrolls have some catching up to do. Thus, while we don’t expect any substantial progress until August or September, a strong print for June would serve as a pleasant surprise.In conclusion, the PMs remain range-bound, as they debate whether the next catalyst will be bullish or bearish. However, with U.S. economic growth poised to outperform in the coming months, not only are the USD Index and Treasury yields (both long and short) undervalued relative to U.S. GDP growth prospects, but inflation is surging, and a forthcoming taper should only add to their upward momentum. As a result, the medium-term outlook remains bearish for the precious metals market, even though the long-term outlook is bullish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Will Fed Hawks Peck Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.07.2021 17:13
Although gold doesn’t have to suffer during the actual tightening cycle, the Fed’s hawkish turn is fundamentally negative for gold prices.Oh no, my worst nightmare related to the precious metals has materialized. In the June edition of the Gold Market Overview, I wrote:Of course, gold is not a perfect inflation hedge in the short term. If the interest rates increase or the Fed tightens the monetary conditions in response to inflation, gold may struggle. Actually, the start of normalization of the monetary policy could push gold downward, just as it happened in 2011.And indeed, the Fed turned hawkish in June . The FOMC members started talking about tapering quantitative easing , and at the same time the recent dot-plot revealed great willingness among them to hike interest rates . And, in line with the prediction, gold prices plunged in response to the Fed’s hawkish signals about possible normalization of the monetary policy . As the chart below shows, the London (P.M. Fix) price of gold declined from $1,895 to $1,763 in June.Now, the key question is: what’s next for gold? Was the June slide just a correction? An exaggerated reaction to the not-so-meaningful economic projections of the FOMC members? After all, “they do not represent a Committee decision” and they “are not a great forecaster of future rate moves”, as Powell reminded in the prepared remarks for his press conference in June.But maybe it's the other way around? Did the Fed’s about-face mark the end of the bull market in gold ? Are we witnessing a replay of 2013, where expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle and higher interest rates (and later the taper tantrum ) sent gold lower, pushing it into bears’ embrace?To find out, let’s check how gold behaved in the previous tightening cycles. As one can see in the chart below, the last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 wasn’t very detrimental for the yellow metal ; gold prices weren’t declining, they remained in the sideways trend.Of course, the tightening created downward pressure on gold. We can see that its price started to rally when the normalization ended, and it accelerated when the Fed turned dovish and started the cycle of interest rate cuts. However, gold didn’t enter a bear market ; it’s consoling news for all gold bulls.Neither the tightening cycle of 2004-2006 was negative for gold prices . On the contrary, the price of gold appreciated in that period. Interestingly, it was a period of rising inflation , as the chart below shows. Similarly, the tightening cycle of the mid-1970s was accompanied by accelerating CPI annual rates , and it was also a positive period for gold.Hence, the upcoming tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for the yellow metal . If it is accompanied by rising inflation, gold may rise in tandem with the federal funds rate . So, it turns out that the key is not the actual changes in the Fed’s policy and interest rates, but the expectations of these changes, which translate into the real interest rates .Indeed, the chart below reveals a strong positive correlation between gold prices and real interest rates. It shows that gold suffered not from the actual previous tightening cycle, but from the expectations of the tightening cycle . As one can see in the chart, the yellow metal definitely entered a bear market in late 2012, just when the real interest rates bottomed out. And then, gold prices plunged in 2013 amid the taper tantrum, when the surprising announcement of tapering of asset purchases by Ben Bernanke pushed the bond yields much higher. Importantly, the actual tapering began a few months later, while the first interest rate hike came only in December 2015.So, what does this short review of the previous tightening cycles imply for the gold market? Well, the good news is that gold doesn’t have to suffer from the tightening cycle , especially if higher inflation turns out to be more lasting than commonly believed. This is because the real interest rates will remain low. And, given the increase in the public debt , Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, and the Fed’s dovish bias, the upcoming tightening will probably be less tight than the previous ones.However, I also have some bad news. First, it might be the case that inflation and inflation expectations have already peaked in May, while the real interest rates have reached the bottom. In this scenario, the outlook for gold is rather grim .Second, although gold may be fine with the actual tightening cycle, we are in the expectations phase. And what do I mean by that? Investors are betting that the Fed will start tightening its monetary policy soon; for example, they expect the official announcement on tapering as early as September 2021. And the expectations are what matters. The Fed’s meeting in June could have been a mini taper-tantrum, as it surprised investors, the bond yields rose, and the price of gold plunged. So, if history is any guide, it seems that gold still has more room to slide .Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Bank of America: GBP will rise in 2021

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 05.07.2021 11:50
The British pound has advanced in the first half of the year, especially against the euro. Will this trend sustain in the second part of 2021?Bank of America has published its mid-year forecast on the GBP. The bank believes the pound has more room to rally up further. The reasons are the UK's successful vaccination rollout and the Bank of England hawkish pivot. The BoE is likely to raise interest rates in 2022, ahead of many G10 peers.The group of Ten (G10) is made up of eleven (yes, it’s strange) industrial countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States) that meet on annual basis to consult each other and cooperate on international financial matters.According to Bank of America, the British pound will mostly outperform the Japanese yen and the Swiss Franc - both currencies with ultra-low interest rates.Besides, the UK PM Boris Johnson claimed that he would cancel the coronavirus restrictions, which would be positive for both the pound and UK stocks. Many global investors consider that the UK stocks are undervalued, suggesting the potential growth. By the way, you can trade not only US stocks, but also UK stocks with FBS. Today the US markets are closed due to the Independence Day holiday. Thus, it’s the perfect time to pay attention to the UK stocks.Technical outlookEUR/GBP has bounced off the 50- and 100-day moving averages and reversed to the downside. The move below the low of June 24 at 0.8530 will press the pair down to the next round number at 0.8500. The pair is likely to move down in the mid and long term. Still, if some fundamentals shock the markets and the pair breaks above the upper trend line at 0.8600, it may jump to 0.8650.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support Post-NFP

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 06.07.2021 08:48
EURUSD struggles to bounceThe US dollar drops after an uptick in last month’s unemployment rate. Sentiment towards the euro grew a tad more bearish after it fell below 1.1850, the support of the recent consolidation range.However, an RSI divergence suggests a loss in the downward momentum, and its double-dip into the oversold territory may make sellers reluctant to double down. Buyers will need to lift offers around 1.1880 before they could push for a reversal.Below 1.1800, the pair would be heading towards the daily support at 1.1710 by default.XAGUSD rallies above resistanceBullions bounce back as weaker-than-expected jobs data take a toll on the US dollar.On the daily chart, silver has found support at the 61.8% (25.70) Fibonacci retracement level from the late March rally. 26.50 has so far capped the bulls’ attempts.The latest breakout is a confirmation of the previously mentioned bullish RSI divergence. The bears may rush to cover their bets before it becomes too expensive to do so.27.20 would be the next target when the rebound gains traction.GER 30 looks to break out of triangleThe DAX 30 consolidates near its recent peak as the euro zone’s economy picks up steam.The index is in an ascending triangle as buyers are willing to pay up. This often occurs as a continuation pattern as the price will typically breakout in the same direction as the underlying trend.A close above 15750 may prompt the last sellers to cover. The RSI stays neutral, laying the groundwork for a breakout. A runaway rally could lift offers towards the milestone at 16000.A drop below 15500, however, may trigger a correction to 15280.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support Post-NFP - 06.07.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support Post-NFP - 06.07.2021

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 06.07.2021 08:48
EURUSD struggles to bounceThe US dollar drops after an uptick in last month’s unemployment rate. Sentiment towards the euro grew a tad more bearish after it fell below 1.1850, the support of the recent consolidation range.However, an RSI divergence suggests a loss in the downward momentum, and its double-dip into the oversold territory may make sellers reluctant to double down. Buyers will need to lift offers around 1.1880 before they could push for a reversal.Below 1.1800, the pair would be heading towards the daily support at 1.1710 by default.XAGUSD rallies above resistanceBullions bounce back as weaker-than-expected jobs data take a toll on the US dollar.On the daily chart, silver has found support at the 61.8% (25.70) Fibonacci retracement level from the late March rally. 26.50 has so far capped the bulls’ attempts.The latest breakout is a confirmation of the previously mentioned bullish RSI divergence. The bears may rush to cover their bets before it becomes too expensive to do so.27.20 would be the next target when the rebound gains traction.GER 30 looks to break out of triangleThe DAX 30 consolidates near its recent peak as the euro zone’s economy picks up steam.The index is in an ascending triangle as buyers are willing to pay up. This often occurs as a continuation pattern as the price will typically breakout in the same direction as the underlying trend.A close above 15750 may prompt the last sellers to cover. The RSI stays neutral, laying the groundwork for a breakout. A runaway rally could lift offers towards the milestone at 16000.A drop below 15500, however, may trigger a correction to 15280.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Bitcoin prices are deceiving

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.07.2021 13:10
With more volatility, the risk gets higher to buy breakouts, and the fear towards market participation when prices decline is magnified as well.Consequently, Bitcoin is, from an emotionally intuitive perspective, hard to trade.Should you struggle with such emotions while Bitcoin is right now to be attained at a bargain, consider the following:Bitcoin has had 15 corrections in 12 years, just like this one.El Salvador, Paraguay, Panama, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are heading for full Bitcoin adoption. Altcoins hype is losing momentum, and that money flows into Bitcoin.Gold and Silver prices are still suppressed by big players, leaving room for Bitcoin to move.Paul Tudor Jones increased his Bitcoin exposure from one to five percent.Bitcoin has a 200% annualized rate of return over the last ten years. Fiat currency’s value loss in purchasing power is rapidly increasing.Bitcoin reached a critical mass with its 150 million users, that could quickly expand into the billions.Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, Daily Chart, Performance versus insurance:Bitcoin in US-Dollar versus Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 6th, 2021.Gold outperforms inflation by about a percent over the last 100 years, but Bitcoin is necessary for your wealth preservation portfolio to not only have a basic insurance but also some growth. Looking at the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio daily chart above for the last 12 months, you can see how Gold flat lined over this period while an investment in Bitcoin more than tripled your trading capital.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Short term risk:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 6th, 2021.Bitcoin seems to struggle to cement price support above US$30,000, but the short-term perspective often gets overvalued. Price attempted three times to surpass its -1 standard deviation (white dotted line) but failed to reach the mean (blue dotted line).We have a significant supply zone based on fractal volume analysis near US$32,900. Still, it wouldn’t surprise us if Bitcoin temporarily breaks through its directional support (white directional line). And again, this is the very short-term daily picture. Let us have a look at a more suitable time frame for wealth preservation. A time frame that is immune to Bitcoins volatility. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Time on your side:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 6th, 2021.Large time frame guidance is, in principle, the most important one. Time perspective analysis gets greatly overlooked. Looking at the monthly chart above, you will find that upthrusts in Bitcoin are quite cyclical. Stars seem to align with a healthy retracement, the time cycle having matured and Bitcoin overall being ready for its second leg. Typically, this leg is the largest in size from a technical analysis perspective. As such, we find large time frame plays to be in favor both in risk/reward-ratio and in timing. In our humble opinion, six-figure targets are certainly within reach over the next 6 to 9 month period.Bitcoin prices are deceiving:Anti-cyclical purchases can provide for a massive edge. When you buy a motorcycle in winter, you can get up to thirty percent discounts. Purchasing Bitcoin on one of its typical declines is no different. Like watching for seasonal patterns, it pays to be a contrarian. Professional traders get accustomed to the emotional discomfort. It provides the edge needed to consistently come out ahead in one’s placed trades. To gain the required confidence stepping into the market at times when it is hard to press the button is planning and practice. Write down the reason why you want to own something. Start with paper trading and small position size to accept the risk and try to execute while your intuition would tell you otherwise. Over time, you will find these efforts to be handsomely rewarded, and it substantially changes your overall performance.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 6th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto buying opportunity, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

HUI: The Illusionist's Trick Left Investors Speechless

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.07.2021 15:52
The gold miners’ 2021 gains prompted a standing ovation among investors. However, they didn’t notice a magic trick until everything vanished.The Gold MinersAfter the HUI Index plunged by more than 10% and made all of its 2021 gains disappear, the magic trick left investors in a state of shock. But while Mr. Market still hasn’t sawed the HUI Index in half, the illusionist is likely gearing up for his greatest reveal. Case in point: while the Zig Zag Girl captivated audiences in the 1960s, the HUI Index’s zigzag correction leaves little to the imagination. And with the recent swoon a lot more than just smoke and mirrors, the HUI Index’s short-term optimism will likely vanish into thin air.To explain, despite the profound drawdown, the HUI Index hasn’t been able to muster a typical relief rally. Moreover, with ominous signals increasing week by week, if history rhymes (as it tends to), the HUI Index will likely find medium-term support in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.Please see below:Furthermore, the underperformance of gold stocks relative to gold is also worthy of attention. With the junior miners often performing the worst during medium-term drawdowns, short positions in the GDXJ ETF will likely offer the best risk-reward ratio. To that point, if you held firm in 2008 and 2013 and maintained your short positions, you almost certainly realized substantial profits. And while there are instances when it’s wise to exit one’s short positions, the prospect of missing out on the forthcoming slide makes it quite risky.To explain, I warned that the recent plunge was weeks in the making:I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:What happened three weeks ago was that gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.Thus, while the HUI Index remains steady for the time being, back in 2008, the ominous underperformance signaled that trouble was ahead. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks hadn’t declined back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, the HUI Index’s bearish head & shoulders pattern is extremely concerning. When the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.In addition, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite the bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 high.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500. However, with the Fed turning hawkish and investors extremely allergic to higher interest rates, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.If we turn our attention to the GDX ETF, lower highs and lower lows have become mainstays of the senior miners’ recent performance. Moreover, while the GDX ETF’s swift drawdown occurred on significant volume, the recent bounce hasn’t garnered much optimism. As a result, we’re likely witnessing a corrective upswing within a medium-term downtrend.Please see below:Finally, comparing the current price action to the behavior that we witnessed in 2012, back then, the GDX ETF corrected back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and then continued to make lower highs before eventually rolling over. And today, the senior miners are displaying similar weakness. Gold stocks are declining even while correcting, and the lack of meaningful upswings signals that the current environment is very bearish.In conclusion, while gold, silver, and mining stocks will attempt to pull rabbits out of their hats, the bunnies’ bounce will likely fade over the medium term. Moreover, with the precious metals searching for a magic bullet that likely doesn’t exist, another disappointment could leave investors without an ace in the hole. The bottom line? While gold, silver, and mining stocks will likely dazzle the crowd in the years to come, their wizardry could resemble black magic in the coming months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

The Rise of Precious Metals and Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.07.2021 16:15
S&P 500 closed Friday on a strong note, and as the holiday-shortened week is usually accompanied by positive seasonality, it would be reasonable to expect extension of gains. Is therre any show stopper at the moment? Credit markets are strong and in a risk-on mode – but what about the odd strength in long-dated Treasuries? Are the stock traders getting it right – or the bond ones? Remember that such divergencies can take a long time to resolve, and don‘t require immediate action. It‘s the same with the Industrials and Transports in the Dow theory. So, don‘t jump to S&P 500 bearish conclusions just yet.The stock market advance is characterized by improving market breadth, and a fresh push of reflationary trades. It would have been all too easy to lose one‘s cool post the June FOMC, and declare value to have topped – while tech amply helped by heavyweights powers the S&P 500 advance, value performance ain‘t too shabby. Even financials are weathering relatively well the retreating yields pressure, counterbalanced by the Fed relaxing share buybacks and dividend rules. Real assets including energy are surging again, and the Fed‘s bluff is being called.Little wonder when all the central bank did, was influence inflation expectations, and precisely nothing about current inflation – let alone pressures in the pipeline. I‘ve discussed the cost-push pressures building up, leading to inflation becoming unanchored. Add job market pressures beyond the difficulties in hiring, and the issue grows more persistent. While it‘s not biting overly noticeably for the financial markets to take notice the way they did in Mar and early May, left unattended, inflation would come to bite in the not so distant future. The takeaway is that with the constant redefinitions of what transitory should mean now, the concept of Fed as inflation fighter is subject to well deserved mockery.Look for the lull in Treasury market to continue, it‘s almost goldilocks economy as the monetary and fiscal support rivals wartime footing circumstances. Makes you wonder what would be on the table if we were faced with a recession. Thankfully, that‘s not on the horizon – we‘re in a multi-year economic expansion that won‘t end with the tapering or tightening games this year or next, not in the least.As I wrote on Friday, thinking also about the value strength:(…) accompanied by the Treasury yields‘ inability to retreat further. Near the top of its recent range, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading within the summer bond market calm atmosphere, and so are the beaten down inflation expectations at a time when the dollar is catching a strong bid. Notably, commodities haven‘t been derailed in the least, so pay no attention to lumber – the real assets‘ world is much richer and profitable.Remember the big picture – fiscal stimulus very much on, monetary accomodation aggressive, no worries about the economic expansion slowing down. Pickup in economic activity associated with inventories replenishment is sure to be kicking reliably on. Open long profits in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can keep growing!Precious metals are duly reacting today to the pressures to go higher, building up for weeks. Look for miners to confirm the upswing that isn‘t going unnoticed in the commodities arena either.Crude oil took off on the absence of OPEC+ deal, but I am looking for it to base in the $70s before we see triple digit crude prices next week. The Brent crude lag looks a bit suspicious to me, so a little breather might be in order here.Crypto bears are getting a beating, with the odds favoring upswing to continue – the Ethereum outperformance of Bitcoin is conducive to the accumulation thesis I had been mentioning for weeks.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is going higher, and so is Nasdaq. The decreasing volume might usher in a little consolidation over time but there is no imminent reason to call for one today.Credit MarketsCredit markets performance remains strong across the board, but I am looking for TLT to face headwinds soon.Technology and ValueTech is up, value is up – what else to wish for? Defending the gained ground, that is.Gold, Silver and MinersGold is attempting to go higher, and based on the yield-inflation spread getting ever more compressed and a tad off inflation expectations, I‘m looking for miners to confirm the upcoming gold advance.Silver and copper are also building energy to go higher, and it‘s my view they would surge to recapture a good portion of the post FOMC decline before taking a breather.Bitcoin and EthereumStrong base building in the cryptos continues, and the bulls have the tactical advange at the moment.SummaryS&P 500 keeps trading near its highs, with a bullish bias, characterized by sectoral rotations and improving market breadth including in Nasdaq. A little sideways consolidation appears looming, but I am looking for a positive week.Gold and silver bulls are getting ever more strongly on the move, and Friday‘s upper knot is a preview of things to come – the depressed nominal yields with unrelenting inflation are helping attract buying interest.Crude oil enjoyed more than its fair share of good news, but remains bullish today‘s tremors notwithstanding. Great future ahead for black gold, the Saudi Arabia – UAE spat regardless.Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls are the favored side these days as the weekly charts posture isn‘t yet in jeopardy. The basing pattern looks to be one of accumulation rather than distribution.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the four publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Will Strong June Nonfarm Payrolls Add To Gold's Problems?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.07.2021 17:30
The US economy created 850,000 jobs in June. It could be another nail in gold’s coffin – what will the yellow metal do?850,000. This is how many jobs the US economy added in June. It means that the recent nonfarm payrolls came above the forecasts (economist predicted 700,000 created jobs) and are much higher than the 583,000 in May or the deeply disappointing 269,000 in April (see the chart below). Big gains occurred in sectors heavily hit previously by the pandemic, i.e., in leisure and hospitality (343,000), public and private education (269,000), professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.Furthermore, employment in April and May was revised upward by 15,000. The acceleration in the pace of job increases is a good sign for the US post-pandemic economy and a bad development for the gold market.The only relief for gold could be the fact that the unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 5.9%, as the chart above shows. This increase was a negative surprise, as economists forecasted a decline to 5.6%. This is also quite paradoxical –unemployment remains relatively high despite a record number of job openings.Another potentially supportive factor for the gold market could be the 3.6% annual increase in wages, which means there will be higher wage inflation that could add to the consumer inflationary pressure. On the other hand, stronger wages could also support the Fed’s hawkish arguments for reducing quantitative easing and raising interest rates rather sooner than later.Implications for GoldThe newest employment situation report is negative for the yellow metal mainly because it strengthens the position of hawks within the FOMC. With strong labor market, there are higher chances that the Fed will normalize its monetary policy earlier. As a reminder, some of the central banks believe that the Fed has already reached its inflation targets. So, the labor market target is what’s left. Strong job gains in June moved the US economy much closer to achieving this Fed’s goal and erasing worries that came in the aftermath of the extremely disappointing April reading.In other words, the strong employment report may add to the current weakness in gold in the medium-term. What the yellow metal needs right now is the flux of unambiguously poor economic data that could trigger the dovish counterrevolution within the US central bank, not the positive reports that strengthen further the expectations of earlier hikes in the federal funds rate. So, the recent report could increase the bond yields and support the American dollar, creating downward pressure on gold.However, the initial response of the yellow metal was positive. As the chart below shows, the price of gold increased on Friday. This is probably because the report wasn’t as good as it could be – i.e., although the nonfarm payrolls release beat expectations, the unemployment rate increased, suggesting that the Fed may, after all, not taper as soon as some investors believe.Gold’s performance amid strong payrolls data is reassuring a bit. The yellow metal is still in the game; it may even return more decisively to the spotlight if investors cease to be relaxed about higher inflation. So far, the US central bank believes that inflation is transitory and markets are calm, but inflation may turn out to be more persistent than the Fed officials and the pundits claim. In such a scenario, the FOMC will have to catch up, which could trigger volatility or even recession; this is an environment in which investors could again switch to gold. But this is still a song of the future, and in the meantime, gold may struggle.Anyhow, for now, investors are focused on the upcoming (tomorrow!) minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. They should provide us with more clues about the Fed’s monetary policy and the direction of gold prices in the future.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Finding Opportunity During a US Holiday Trading Week

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.07.2021 18:09
It’s the week of the Independence Day Holiday, and that typically leads to lighter volume trade. There is little in the way of economic data this week, so let’s find some potential opportunities.Last week’s Non-Farm Payroll data was a refreshing change of pace for market participants. As the market expected 700K jobs added during June, the market got a print of 850K. The S&P 500 moved higher on Friday, tacking on about 25 handles from the time the data was released, and the close.It was one of those Fridays where the market was up off of economic data and just kept drifting higher. The pre-holiday trade factored in here too, and volumes seem to dry up in the afternoon. On days like that, you would have to find a very compelling reason to get long or short anything. Most professionals are closing up their books ahead of the long weekend and just wanting to be flat. Over a period of years, I came to learn that Fridays were my least productive trading days, so I personally look to be flat, and/or have only longer-term swing trades or position trades on heading into a weekend.That is useful insight, but it is so last week. What can we find this week?First, I want to mention that this week is a light one on the economic data front. On Tuesday, we get the ISM Services PMI (manufacturing expansion or contraction). On Wednesday, we get the FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide some additional depth to the last Fed statement. We expect a light volume, holiday-week style trading week on the major exchanges this week.Tropical Storm ElsaWe also have Elsa - currently a Tropical Storm (and will hopefully stay that way). Trade themes tend to center around energy, insurers, orange juice during Florida storms. I am currently writing to you from the projected path of Elsa, and hopefully, it will be weaker than expected! Personally, I would be looking to fade Elsa. I somewhat kid, but did you know that you can actually trade weather?Figure 1 - SPDR S&P 500 ETF January 29, 2021 - July 6, 2021, 10:10 AM, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comA simple observation: The S&P 500 has been higher in nine of the ten last trading sessions. It has been unfadable and looking forward to this week on lighter volume; it may take a surprising catalyst to send the index lower in any meaningful fashion. We are approaching technically overbought levels according to RSI (14), but what could be a catalyst for substantially lower prices? Sideways consolidation could be the next theme in the short-term on light holiday week volume.Given the expectations for the style of this week, and not wanting to chase an index higher that is approaching daily overbought levels (but not looking to get short either), we can look to particular stories and themes in order to find a potential opportunity.Let’s Talk Banks & KBENow that we have the first Fed interest rate hike hint out of the way, we can think about bank stocks over the longer term. Higher interest rates can create net interest margin expansion for banks and can boost the bottom line.Many bank stocks sold off on the Fed news initially (a buy the rumor sell the fact type trade). Now that we have pulled back a bit in the bank names, I begin analyzing ETFs for opportunities.Figure 2- KBE S&P Bank ETF October 30, 2017 - July 6, 2021, Weekly Candles Source stockcharts.comAbove, we have the KBE S&P Bank ETF. You may be thinking - banks? They are so boring! The truth is I do like boring. There is a meaningful pullback off the highs in the banking sector of the S&P 500 already. We like to buy pullbacks in bull markets, right? The above chart is a weekly chart, and we can see that the price is approaching the previous highs made in late 2019 and that we are at the bottom of the most recent consolidation range.Perhaps a quieter S&P 500 this week can provide an opportunity in an ETF that has pulled back over 9% from its 2021 highs; as the S&P 500 has continued to make new highs.Turning to the Daily Charts:Figure 3- KBE S&P Bank ETF September 1, 2020 - July 6, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe have several levels to consider here. First, we are very close to the recent low point of the consolidation range ($49.15) combined with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $49.02.However, what if the broader market finally pulls back/consolidates? A move lower could give us a dip in the KBE, potentially to the 2019 highs near $48. This pullback could be soon and could coincide with a daily RSI (14) reading at oversold levels near 30 or lower.That’s the kind of stuff I like to see, and I like having a plan in place for when it happens. I like looking at the key 61.8% retracement level of $47.39 and the 2019 highs of $48.11.Now, since we are covering so many markets, let’s start the week off correctly and see where the nine covered markets are trading for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Interest Rates: Making the Improbable Today’s Reality

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.07.2021 17:38
The US Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate guidance for 2023; and potentially late 2022. Oddly enough, interest rates have moved lower since the last Fed meeting.I see an opportunity today.You would think that the higher interest rate guidance would have created a bump higher in the $TNX (Ten-Year Note Yield). However, wouldn’t that make too much sense? The more trading experience I have gotten over the last two decades, the clearer it is, that logic doesn’t always work - unless you are early enough.If you have been following along, you know that yesterday, I discussed the S&P Banking sector, namely KBE, as we wait for a pullback to some key technical levels.It got me thinking: the Ten-Year Note yield should be very similar to that trade.Figure 1 - Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield November 3, 2020 - July 7, 2021, 10:10 AM, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe can see that the 10-year note yield has declined since June 16th’s Fed meeting. We are approaching daily oversold levels via the RSI(14). I think it is safe to say that many traders that took this trade (especially with leverage) have reached or are reaching their point of maximum pain. Notice how this chart looks very similar to the chart regarding KBE in yesterday’s publication.Higher interest rates can create net interest margin expansion for banks and can boost the bottom line. Lower rates may have contributed to the fall in KBE over the last few weeks.But Wait, There’s MoreThere were simply too many technical indicators to fit on one chart on this one. So, let’s take another look at interest rates, but this time in the form of TLT iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF. Let’s further out in time with daily candles here.Figure 2- TLT iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF September 10, 2018 - July 7, 2021, DailyCandles Source stooq.comI like the fact that numerous indicators are showing that interest rates may be due to head back in the “correct” direction. We have a long-term potential head and shoulders pattern, the 200-day moving average in TLT. We also have the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in $TNX. Putting all of this together makes sense for a trade opportunity.Perhaps since most traders that took the “logical” trade on the Fed announcement back on June 16th have had enough and reached a point of maximum pain, it can be our turn for a trade.There are indeed numerous ways that a trader can trade interest rates. There are different products, durations, and instruments. Many traders are not familiar with interest rate futures; they are quoted differently and have margin requirements that may not be suitable for many traders.I happen to like the TLT as the preferred instrument here. It is the longer end of the curve (20+ years) and is extremely liquid. The longer end of the yield curve can provide more price volatility versus the shorter end, and I strongly like the longer-term head and shoulders pattern that could be forming in the TLT.Putting all of this together makes me consider Selling TLT when $TNX trades between 1.291% - 1.310% or at the 200-day near moving average of TLT ($148.47). Let's call it $148.47 - $148.00.It looks like this TLT trade could be triggered at any time today.Now, since we are covering so many markets, let’s cover the rest of them and see where the nine covered markets are trading for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Silver, by endurance, we conquer

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.07.2021 11:56
We consider wealth preservation the most important one right now. Unfortunately, this very long-term play has its tricky part since it encompasses large cycle thinking and planning. The principle being the longer the time frame, the harder to predict. As such, it is wise to give more weight typically to one’s fundamentals in addition to one’s technicals. We find one aspect specifically significant. We all know that money has been printed to a large extent throughout the world. Why aren’t we in hyperinflation yet? Yes, we get a lot less bang for the buck in the supermarket, but it seems modest in relation to the currency dilution. After all, from all dollar notes ever printed in more than a hundred years, half have been printed in the last 18 months.The answer is that due to the unusual pairing with Covid, money hasn’t reached the market yet. It hasn’t circulated. It hasn’t diluted yet. People hoarded money, and the actual effects of inflation will manifest with this delay until people spend money again.In other words, once public confidence is regained, it might fuel economic problems. Consequently, we are now positioning in Silver ahead of the storm.Gold in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Watch out for Gold!Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 8th, 2021.Over the last year, Gold was mostly outperformed within the precious metal sector (Silver, palladium, platinum). Consequently, we have a close look now at the sector leader. Once Gold gets going, it could easily be the last domino falling to cause a chain reaction for Silver running wild, fast, and furious.Why with a vengeance? For every ounce of Gold mined, 7 to 9 ounces of Silver are dug out of the ground. The price between the metals isn’t 1:7 or 1:9, though. Current price is 1:70 between Gold and Silver.This means Silver has some catching up to do, or at least when Gold starts to be moving, a stretch larger than 1:70 is not sustainable for an extended period.The weekly chart above illustrates that long-term entries in the gold market have a favorable setup regarding the risk/reward-ratio. It will come as no surprise if professionals are already in a silent accumulation phase. Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, A low-risk move lining up:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 8th, 2021.Timing, the trickiest part in investing, is favorable since we see Gold possibly moving over the short term due to Russia’s intent to buy 651 tons of the shiny metal within the next two quarters.Since more than one year, physical silver for purchase is only available with a hefty premium. Supply might continue to diminish since a US-based movement called “Wallstreetsilver” advertises to buy physical Silver. And “Wallstreetsilver” has an impressive growth rate signing up new members.The weekly chart of Silver above could unfold favorably in the sense that typically a brief overshoot through the linear regression line has led to a reversal in price direction (see white circles). With the additional fractal volume support slightly above US$25, we would not be surprised to find low-risk entry points within the next two-week time period. Recent swift up moves have also all started near the mean (yellow up sloping line).  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, When it moves, it moves:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 8th, 2021.To us, the question is always one of risk. Do we have a risk to the downside or the upside? Typically, this involves a pretty lengthy debate and evaluation. Rarely do point so many fundamental and technical data towards one side. We find not to be exposed to the physical holding of Silver (and other raw materials) the part of the risk. Holding fiat currencies without this counterpart insurance is, in our humble opinion, quite a risky business.The monthly chart above shows that Silver has a history that once prices are in motion, they excel explosively. We find the anticipatory accumulation of physical Silver to be less risk involved versus sitting it out. The US mint already had shortages, and we anticipate a more severe Silver shortage to be on the horizon.Silver, by endurance, we conquer:This isn’t the only time trading feels challenging, like exploring the pole. It is in principle aligned, constantly stepping into the unknown and dealing with terrain unfamiliar. Market participation requires a unique mindset and isn’t for the faint-hearted. Taking risks isn’t anyone’s game and needs special preparation as well. What is striking is that we are dealing with an occurrence that happens, maybe two or three times in a century. An inflection point, one could say, for wealth preservation. It is hard to make money, but preserving it is now an additional challenge. We find it no understatement when headlines state a “transfer of wealth.” Being aware of the magnitude of one’s action for the long-term effects of ones’ financial affairs is key to maneuver ones’ ship through the tricky waters.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 8th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold: The Tapering Clock Is Ticking

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.07.2021 15:42
With the FED increasingly hawkish and the USDX rising from the ashes, don’t be fooled by the recent upswing in gold. The bears are getting ready.With the reflation trade getting cut off at the knees, the only asset class not feeling the pain is U.S. equities. However, while shorts capitulate and send the U.S. 10-Year Treasury higher (and the yield lower), the flattening of the U.S. yield curve screams of a potential recession. However, while the development is bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, investors are putting the cart before the horse.To explain, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield languishes in its depressed state, J.P. Morgan told clients on Jul. 6 that the Treasury benchmark is roughly three standard deviations below its model-implied fair value. For context, J.P. Morgan believes that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield should trade at roughly 1.60%, and, given the three-sigma underperformance, standard normal probabilities imply a roughly 99.9% chance that the Treasury benchmark will move higher over the medium term.Please see below:However, while the bond market ‘wants what it wants’, it’s important to remember that a flattening of the U.S. yield curve has the same effect on the PMs. For example, while I’ve been warning for months that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) will likely taper its asset purchases much sooner than investors expect, the minority view is now the consensus. And with that, the hawkish shift reduces inflation expectations, reduces growth expectations and often results in lower long-term interest rates. However, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield still remains significantly undervalued in our view, ‘the ghost of tapering past’ has investors aiming to front-run a September reveal.As evidence, the FED released the minutes from its Jun. 15/16 policy meeting on Jul. 7. An excerpt from the report read:“Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of in-coming data.”And surprise, surprise, while I’ve been warning for some time that surging inflation will likely force the FED’s hand, the report revealed:Source: U.S. FEDThe Container WarBut with long-term yields signaling the death of inflation, is a regime shift already underway? Well, I warned previously that inflationary pressures are unlikely to abate anytime soon:I wrote:With the U.S. Census Bureau revealing on Jun. 8 that U.S. imports from China (goods) totaled nearly $38 billion in April, more and more data signals that the U.S. economy will continue to feel the inflationary burn. Shipping costs are also exploding at an unprecedented rate.Please see below:To explain, the lines above track the shipping costs to-and-from various regions. If you analyze the dark blue line sandwiched in the middle ($6.5K), average shipping costs continue to skyrocket. Moreover, if you’re shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam, New York or Genca, global businesses are nowhere near solving these “transitory” issues.And providing another update on Jun. 28, the situation has only worsened.To explain, if you compare the first chart to the one directly above, you can see that the composite container rate (the dark blue line) has increased from $6.5K to $8.1K in only two weeks. What’s more, shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam (the gold line) has increased from $10.5K to $12.0k, while Shanghai to New York (the gray line) has risen from $7.6K to $11.2K. As a result, does it seem like inflationary pressures are a thing of the past?To that point, with the old adage implying that ‘the third time’s the charm,’ the surge lives on.Please see below:To explain, the composite container rate has now gone from $6.5K through $8.1K to $8.4K in less than a month. And with shipping costs from China (Shanghai) leading the charge, the FED’s “transitory” narrative still lacks empirical credibility.To that point, can you guess which trading partner accounts for 17.3% of U.S. imports?Source: U.S. Census BureauThe bottom line? While the bond market may ‘wish upon a star,’ inflationary pressures are unlikely to subside until the FED tapers its asset purchases (and/or raises interest rates).What Can the Services PMI Tell Us?As further evidence, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its services PMI on Jul. 6. And while the headline index declined from 64 in May (an all-time high) to 60.1 in June, inflation remained abundant:“Prices paid by service organizations for materials and services increased in June, with the index registering 79.5 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than May’s reading of 80.6 percent. 17 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of June … [with] only [one] industry reporting a decrease.”In addition, ISM Chair Anthony Nieves added:“According to the Services PMI, 16 services industries [out of 18] reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 13th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. The rate of expansion in the services sector remains strong, despite the slight pullback in the rate of growth from the previous month’s all-time high. Challenges with materials shortages, inflation, logistics and employment resources continue to be an impediment to business conditions.”For context, the ISM requires written permission before redistributing any of its content, and that’s why I quoted the findings rather than including a screenshot of the report. However, if you want to review the source material, you can find it here.Likewise, IHS Markit also released its U.S. services PMI on Jul. 6. An excerpt from the report read:“Contributing to the robust rise in activity across the service sector was a further marked increase in new business at the end of the second quarter. Alongside strong customer demand, firms attributed the upturn in new sales to the acquisition of new clients. Although the rate of new business growth slipped to a three-month low, it was still the third-fastest on record.”And following right along:Source: IHS MarkitFurthermore, while oil prices have surged in 2021 so far, major companies haven’t increased their capital investments. As a result, not only are U.S. crude oil inventories still ~6% below their historical average (as of Jun. 30), but dormant supply could put upward pressure on prices in the coming months.Please see below:To explain, the gold line above tracks the Brent price, while the blue line above tracks major oil companies’ capital expenditures. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that investments in drilling infrastructure have fallen off a cliff. And with demand likely to remain abundant as economies reopen, fuel, gasoline and heating oil prices will likely remain elevated.The Swagger of the USDXFinally, with the USD Index regaining its swagger and the EUR/USD falling from grace, the cocktail of a hawkish FED and fundamental underperformance is weighing heavily on the euro. Moreover, with growth differentials poised to widen in the coming months, U.S. dollar strength could cast a dark shadow over the PMs.Please see below:To explain, the various lines above track Bank of America’s quarterly projections for G6 real GDP levels. If you focus your attention on the dark blue (U.S.) and light blue (Eurozone) lines, you can see that the former is leading the pack, while the latter is vying for the last place. On top of that, the U.S.’s projected outperformance of Japan, Canada, and the U.K. is bullish for the USD/JPY and the USD/CAD but bearish for the GBP/USD.In conclusion, while the PMs remain upbeat, it’s likely another case of ‘been there, done that.’ For example, it was roughly four months ago that falling real yields helped uplift gold before it eventually collapsed. And with a similar event unfolding once again, gold has demonstrated rational (though, superficial) strength. However, with the clock ticking toward a taper announcement and the USD Index rising from the ashes, the corrective upswing is likely another head fake within gold’s medium-term downtrend.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

FOMC Minutes: A Confirmation of Fed’s Hawkish Shift?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.07.2021 15:55
The latest FOMC minutes were… mixed. The discussion between hawks and doves continues giving gold no comfort. Who will gain the upper hand?Yesterday, the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting in June. Investors who counted on some clear clues are probably disappointed, as the minutes can please both hawks and doves. Indeed, the report showed that the Fed officials are divided on their inflation outlook and the appropriate course of action. The dovish side believes that the recent high inflation readings are transitory and they will ease in the not-so-distant future, while the hawkish camp worries that the upward pressure on prices could continue next year:Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effect of these transitory factors dissipated, but several participants remarked that they anticipated that supply chain limitations and input shortages would put upward pressure on prices into next year. Several participants noted that, during the early months of the reopening, uncertainty remained too high to accurately assess how long inflation pressures will be sustained.Importantly, most FOMC members recognized that the risks to inflation forecasts leaned more to the upside. This means that the hawkish shift is indeed real, although the Fed will remain very accommodative:Although they generally saw the risks to the outlook for economic activity as broadly balanced, a substantial majority of participants judged that the risks to their inflation projections were tilted to the upside [emphasis added] because of concerns that supply disruptions and labor shortages might linger for longer and might have larger or more persistent effects on prices and wages than they currently assumed. Several participants expressed concern that longer-term inflation expectations might rise to inappropriate levels if elevated inflation readings persisted. Several other participants cautioned that downside risks to inflation remained because temporary price pressures might unwind faster than currently anticipated and because the forces that held down inflation and inflation expectations during the previous economic expansion had not gone away or might reinforce the effect of the unwinding of temporary price pressures.As a consequence of fast economic growth and higher inflation than expected, some participants suggested that it would be appropriate to taper the quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate sooner than previously thought. Or, to be at least prepared if higher inflation turns out to be more persistent than the consensus sees it:In light of the incoming data and the implications for their economic outlooks, a few participants mentioned that they expected the economic conditions set out in the Committee's forward guidance for the federal funds rate to be met somewhat earlier than they had projected in March (…)Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data (…)Participants generally judged that, as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than-anticipated progress toward the Committee's goals or the emergence of risks that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.However, despite all these hawkish commentaries, the majority of FOMC members remains extremely cautious and believe that the economy has still a long way to achieve the Fed’s targets, especially full employment:Many participants remarked, however, that the economy was still far from achieving the Committee's broad-based and inclusive maximum-employment goal, and some participants indicated that recent job gains, while strong, were weaker than they had expected.So, given that the economy hasn’t yet fully recovered, inflation will likely be just transitory, and there is high uncertainty about the economic outlook, it would be premature to tighten the monetary policy and raise the interest rates:Participants generally agreed that the economic recovery was incomplete and that risks to the economic outlook remained. Although inflation had risen more than anticipated, the increase was seen as largely reflecting temporary factors, and participants expected inflation to decline toward the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective (…)Several participants emphasized, however, that uncertainty around the economic outlook was elevated and that it was too early to draw firm conclusions about the paths of the labor market and inflation. In their view, this heightened uncertainty regarding the evolution of the economy also implied significant uncertainty about the appropriate path of the federal funds rate (…)Participants discussed the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases and progress toward the Committee’s goals since last December when the Committee adopted its guidance for asset purchases. The Committee’s standard of “substantial further progress” was generally seen as not having yet been met, though participants expected progress to continue (…) Some participants saw the incoming data as providing a less clear signal about the underlying economic momentum and judged that the Committee would have information in coming months to make a better assessment of the path of the labor market and inflation. As a result, several of these participants emphasized that the Committee should be patient in assessing progress toward its goals and in announcing changes to its plans for asset purchases.Implications for GoldWhat do the recent FOMC minutes imply for gold? Well, in some sense, not so much. The minutes don’t include any revolutionary insights we are not aware of. Moreover, they lacked any clear guidelines about the future US monetary policy, as we could find both hawkish and dovish remarks in them.And indeed, the price of gold was little changed in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes, and it remained slightly above $1,800 it reached the day before (see the chart below).However, the minutes haven’t offered any significant dovish counterweight to the recent hawkish statement and the dot-plot. The statement is often more aggressive than nuanced and soft. Hence, although the minutes do show the discussion among the Fed’s officials, the hawkish shift is real. Perhaps the most important part of the document is the paragraph about the transition into a post-pandemic world.Members judged that the economic outlook had continued to improve and that the most negative effects of the pandemic on the economy most likely had occurred. As a result, they agreed to remove references in the FOMC statement that noted that the virus was "causing tremendous human and economic hardship" and that "the ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on the economy." Instead, they agreed to say that progress on vaccinations had reduced the spread of COVID-19 and would likely continue to reduce the negative economic effects of the public health crisis.So, although the recovery is not completed and the economy hasn’t reached the Fed’s goals yet, the normalization of the US monetary policy has begun. It’s a fundamentally negative development for the gold market. Of course, gold bulls may find some comfort in the fact that it will still take at least a few meetings to develop and announce a plan of tapering the asset purchases; the interest rates cycle will start only later. Another positive factor is, of course, that gold managed to stay above $1,800 despite the lack of any clear dovish signals in the minutes.Nonetheless, the Fed’s hawkish U-turn – unless reversed because of another economic crisis, or unless accompanied by stagflation – should imply higher bond yields, a stronger greenback and, thus, weaker gold.In other words, the minutes won’t change the current market narrative, which assumes that the economic recovery is on track while inflation is just transitory. As a reminder, the latest job gains were surprisingly strong, which moves the US economy closer to full employment. Such a narrative implies strong economic confidence and limited demand for safe-havens such as gold.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
S&P 500 Lower in Early NY Trade, Bonds Bid Near Key Levels

S&P 500 Lower in Early NY Trade, Bonds Bid Near Key Levels

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.07.2021 17:11
Overseas markets were lower overnight on the chatter of Covid variants and the ECB. The S&P 500 is lower by over 60 handles in early NY cash trading.US equity futures were lower overnight ahead of the cash open with several headlines moving the market; the ECB confirms that they are raising their inflation goal to 2%, there is talk of Covid variants, and a potential spectator-free Olympic games. It is one of those mornings. To put matters into perspective, let’s take a look at a daily candlestick chart of the S&P 500.Figure 1 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures March 13, 2021 - July 7, 2021, 8:42 AM, Daily Candles Source stooq.comAfter the slow grind higher, we finally have a meaningful pullback so far at the open today. It was hard to see that one coming, and we will find out if the pullback has any legs to it throughout the day. The 50-day SMA is still quite a distance away (4214.14), so I would not be in any rush to buy the index here, and also don’t see any reason to get emotional and sell into it, either.Figure 2 - Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield September 16, 2020 - July 7, 2021, 9:04 AM, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comIt is a somewhat rough open today, with capital fleeing into Bonds (even further) and the S&P 500 opening down ~1.4%. Is rushing into buying bonds (expecting lower yields) the right thing to do right now?I don’t think so. Taking all of the emotion out of the market, the 10-year note yields are in oversold daily territory and hitting a 61.8% retracement level, with the 200-day moving average in sight.Yesterday, the ten-year yield gapped lower and looked like it was putting in a low, with a doji candle formation after gapping down on the session. As it turns out, today may be an even more favorable day to consider getting long interest rates in one shape, form, or fashion.Speaking of bond yields, we examined them yesterday, and they are indeed lower again this morning. We looked at TLT, and let's take a look early this morning.Figure 3 - TLT iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF September 10, 2018 - July 7, 2021, DailyCandles Source stooq.comThis potential head and shoulders (long-term) formation in TLT has a left shoulder high of $148.90. We are currently trading higher than this as I write this, at $149.24. It is up by 0.83% on the day so far. It is not the biggest up day in the world, but not too much fun when short from $148.00.Emotions and trading do not mix. Today, all of the talking heads are making it sound like the sky is falling with capital moving out of stocks and into bonds. The SPX was up for eight of the last nine sessions, I believe, and the index is currently trading where it was last Monday. Is that really a big deal? That is why I love to consult the charts and technicals; there is no human emotion in there.Another key observation: The Ten-Year note yield has not had a daily RSI(14) level this low (29) since the Covid-19 meltdown. Oversold much?Now, let’s cover the stop loss, take profit, and other key levels in TLT, along with analyses on the other eight markets we are covering for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – NASDAQ Holds Despite Whipsaw

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 09.07.2021 10:30
NAS 100 bounces off trendlineThe Nasdaq index whipsaws as investors fear that the economic recovery may stall.Sentiment remains upbeat as the composite rebounds from a seven-week-long rising trendline. This congestion area includes the former resistance at 14560 which has turned into key support.Trend followers were quick to see the oversold RSI as an opportunity to double down on the bullish bandwagon.14830 has now become a hurdle and a bullish breakout could lead the index to the historic high at 15000.USDCHF falls from daily resistanceThe Swiss franc shot up as markets grew weary of the Delta variant spread. Whereas, the US dollar has stumbled on the supply area around 0.9275 from the daily timeframe.Last Friday’s attempts below 0.9200 have shown weakness in the upward impetus. Following a feeble rebound, the dollar’s clean-cut through said support confirms the bearish turn. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound.Once below 0.9140, the greenback could be vulnerable to an extended sell-off towards 0.9080.EURJPY slips below psychological supportThe Japanese yen rallies amid surging demand for safe-haven currencies.The break below the psychological level of 130.00 has invalidated the rebound in late June. Sellers are still in control of the action after the bearish MA cross.The euro is now hovering near the critical support (129.60) on the daily chart. A bearish breakout could push the pair towards 128.90.In the meantime, an oversold RSI may prompt early bulls to test the water. The base of the latest sell-off at 131.00 is a major resistance ahead.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold Miners: The Underperformance Screams “Bearish!”

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.07.2021 15:35
While gold moved slightly above its recent highs yesterday, the gold stocks moved to their previous lows. Can you hear the bears approaching?Gold made another reversal yesterday, and the miners declined profoundly – also once again. Just as in early 2013 – that’s extremely bearish.Gold futures moved to new intraday highs yesterday, but they ended the session $1.90 lower, creating yet another shooting star reversal candlestick. Seeing just one reversal is bearish on its own, but seeing more than one in a row is profoundly bearish.Please note that gold reversed after moving slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent decline. The minimum one of the likely correction sizes was reached, so the decline can now continue. The RSI is no longer oversold, but rather close to the middle of its trading range. This tells us that bearish gold forecasts are clearly justified. Also based on the reversals that we just saw, this move is likely to be to the downside.The Gold MinersAnother detail that serves as a bearish confirmation is the performance of the mining stocks.While gold moved slightly above its recent highs during yesterday’s session, the gold stocks moved to their previous lows. If this is not a shocking proof of extreme underperformance, then I don’t know what would be one.The mining stocks simply can’t wait to break to new lows. In fact, the junior miners – my proxy of choice for the current (profitable) short trade – already broke to new lows.On June 29 (the June low), the GDXJ ETF closed at $45.83, and yesterday it closed at $45.53. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a breakdown.Of course, it was not confirmed yet, but the fact that we saw a new low while gold made a new short-term intraday high is extremely bearish.The interesting detail about both (GDX and GDXJ) ETFs is that the recent price moves created bearish head-and-shoulders formations in them. The targets based on such formations are based on the size of their heads. I marked the height of the head and the targets with red, dashed lines.It seems that we might see a move below $38 in the GDXJ before it corrects in a more meaningful way.Ok, but shouldn’t March lows provide strong support and trigger a rebound?Yes, the previous lows provide relatively important support, but:Miners have been very weak relative to gold recently, and they don’t even need to keep it up in order to slide below the March lows – they could behave “normally” for this to happen.Gold seems to be ready to slide significantly – to its March lows or so. In order to do it, it would need to approximately repeat its June slide.If gold repeats its June slide, it will decline by about $150.Taking the entire decline into account (since August 2020), for every $1 that gold fell, on average, the GDX was down by about 4 cents (3.945 cents) and GDXJ was down by about 6.5 cents (6.504 cents).This means that if gold was to fall by about $150 and miners declined just as they did so far in the past year (no special out- or underperformance), they would be likely to fall by $5.92 (GDX) and $9.76 (GDXJ). Given yesterday’s closing prices, this would imply price moves to $27.76 (GDX) and $35.78 (GDXJ).Interestingly, both above-mentioned price levels are in perfect tune with the target areas that I placed on the charts based on the head and shoulders patterns and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (which is based on the entire 2020 rally). This adds to their credibility. Naturally, I will be making updates as the situation develops and we get more information.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Struggles At Resistance

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 12.07.2021 11:43
XAUUSD rally slows downGold grinds higher as the US dollar softens amid lower Treasury yields.The rally slowed as the bulls pushed towards the key resistance at 1824. A bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally and further confirm the reversal.However, the RSI divergence may temper the enthusiasm. Its failure to follow the price and achieve a higher high is a warning sign of fading momentum.1790 is the immediate support and its breach could send the price to 1775, where the precious metal first broke out of its bearish range.CADJPY recovers temporarilyThe Canadian dollar bounces back after a fall in June’s unemployment rate.The drop below 88.00, the origin of the previous rebound, has put the loonie back on the correction path.The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold zone has prompted intraday players to take profit, momentarily driving up the price.This may turn out to be a dead cat bounce as the pair tests the supply area around 88.80. A drop below 87.40 could lead to another round of sell-off towards the major demand zone around 86.50 on the daily chart.UK 100 holds above daily supportThe FTSE 100 recovers as lackluster GDP growth may keep the BOE off the hawkish path.The index is in consolidation between the daily support at 6940 and 7200. As long as the bulls bid up the price above the support, the medium-term rally is still intact.The current volatility is a sign of short-term turnover. After the RSI rose back from an oversold situation, price action found support at the psychological level of 7000.7150 is the resistance ahead, a breakout could challenge the peak at 7200.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Bitcoin, stay on course

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 12.07.2021 14:07
We post live entries and exits of trades in our free Telegram channel . We are not doing this to encourage shadow trading since, in principle, one should not trade another person’s trading system. This free service is provided for confidence-building, especially when jittery markets like right now tempt amateurs to stray from their approach. Confidence to use it as a confirmation tool when your signals align and provide a discussion board to share doubts and ask questions in difficult times.Don’t let Bitcoin get away, it has a high probability to take off soon.Bitcoin is going through a rough patch of building a bottom. When inherently volatile Bitcoin gets squeezed into tight sideways ranges, low-risk entry points get harder to execute. Over time, there is no directional follow-through, and a trader’s confidence gets weary. Typically, this leads to a low probability of being exposed to the final push-through move. One quickly can accumulate losing trades now trying to chase or otherwise catch a trade with a different than usual entry approach.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Cyclical probabilities:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 11th, 2021.Why are we warning to keep focused here? Looks can be deceiving. Most find Bitcoin less in the limelight right now. Do not underestimate Bitcoins’ explosive volatility! The weekly chart above shows Bitcoin at precisely the same week in July a year ago. A similar picture is presented. A ten-week congestion zone of price uncertainties and battles between bulls and bears. Then in less than a month, prices shot up by 36%. We were followed by a quick retracement, not even retesting breakout levels. The rest is history with a steep push to US$64,895, a 560% move.In other words, we saw from the week of the 13th of July last year a more than 6x move out of the blue.Who says this could not happen again this year around?BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Anything is possible:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 11th, 2021.No one knows the future, but we know that Bitcoin is a highly cyclical and seasonal trading vehicle. It would be nothing less than foolish to rule out Bitcoin moving quickly again.All it takes is a surprise news item, and the picture of the market can change.The chart above, again a weekly picture, shows a similar high volume fractal support zone (see histogram to the right side of the chart). Again, battles for seven weeks now between bears and bulls, with a likely high point of resolve within reach. When there is a trading zone with long candle wicks, there is a chance that both bears and bulls experienced losing trades getting stopped out. At this time, confidence can wane, and it is at this time, staying on course is critical. Plan your trades and trade your plan.S&P 500, Monthly Chart, Stock market blow-off top:S&P 500 in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 11th, 2021.But cyclical reasons aren’t the only edge considered. We stack a minimum of twelve edges before we consider a play and look for low-risk entry points. The monthly chart of the S&P 500 index shows staggering advances over the last twelve years. What is different in this final leg up over the previous fifteen months is its size. The price has nearly doubled. In addition, you can find the absence of a significant retracement. Also pointing towards a possible blow-off top is the steepness of the angel of price advancement (see while lines, the final stretch to the very right is much steeper versus the previous legs up).While prices have continuously revisited either the twenty simple moving average or the forty simple moving average (turquoise line), the recent price shoot-up has stretched far from these averages. What goes up must come down. Should the stock market surrender some of its profits, money could likely flow towards Bitcoin again.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, stay on course:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 11th, 2021.A final look at Bitcoin from a monthly time frame perspective shows a possibility of a harmonious continuation pattern. Bitcoin seems to find support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. In addition, it gets fractal volume analysis supply support (green horizontal box). The candlestick wicks to the downside of the last three months indicate support, and prices get rejected from lower levels. So far, and this month’s candle isn’t finished printing yet, we have a smooth rollover turning point in the making.Bitcoin, stay on course:We recommend not to experiment with a different approach to the markets when you are in a rut. Never follow other people’s recommendations as a reason for making a trade. Use principles only as reasons to stack your edges. Follow as close as possible a prefabricated plan you made for executing your trades to be emotionally uninfluenced by surprising market behavior in real-time. When in doubt, stay out is also a term that comes to mind, and it is undoubtedly always a good decision to reduce position size when unexpected losing trades make you feel uneasy. Use any methods to keep your confidence and coolness to accept the risks when exposing your money to the market.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 12th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold: High Time to Move Out of the Penthouse

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.07.2021 14:29
Gold’s days in a glamorous apartment at the top of the PMs’ building are numbered. We’d better prepare for a rapid elevator ride to the first floor.The Gold MinersWith the gold miners essentially running laps on the treadmill, the HUI Index, the GDX ETF, and the GDXJ ETF are working extremely hard but making little progress. And with the gambit resulting in ‘one step forward, two steps back,’ frustrating exhaustion has mining stocks questioning their every move. To that point, even though the trio transitioned from the conveyor belt to the stairs in recent weeks, history shows that slow climbs often culminate with elevator rides lower. Should we expect a different outcome this time around?Gold ended the week in the green (up by $27.30), but the HUI Index was stuck in the red (down by 1.39). This is extremely noteworthy, as a similar divergence occurred at the end of May. For context, when the yellow metal rallied by $28.60 in a week back then, the HUI Index fell by 1.37 index points.In the following weeks, the HUI Index declined by about 50 index points, while gold declined by about $150.And with the ominous imbalance preceding the pair’s precipitous declines, again, should we expect a different outcome this time around?Please see below:To explain, with the HUI Index unable to muster any meaningful relief rallies, I warned that the recent plunge was weeks in the making:I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:What happened three weeks ago was that gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for the gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.To that point, with the HUI Index’s ominous signals only increasing, if history rhymes (as it tends to), medium-term support will likely materialize in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.Furthermore, with the junior miners often suffering the most during medium-term drawdowns, short positions in the GDXJ ETF will likely offer the best risk-reward ratio. For context, if you held firm in 2008 and 2013 and maintained your short positions, you almost certainly realized substantial profits. And while there are instances when it’s wise to exit one’s short positions, the prospect of missing out on the forthcoming slide makes it quite risky.Even more bearish, a drastic underperformance by the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, the HUI Index’s bearish head-and-shoulders pattern is already sounding the alarm. When the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.In addition, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500. However, with the Fed turning hawkish and investors extremely allergic to higher interest rates, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.As further evidence, let’s analyze the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the senior miners celebrated gold’s strength by falling to their previous lows on Jul. 8. If this is not a shocking proof of extreme underperformance, then I don’t know what would be one.Please see below:Regarding the latter, on Jun. 29 (the June low), the GDXJ ETF closed at $45.83. And on Jul. 8, it closed at $45.53. Ladies and gentlemen, we had a breakdown.Of course, we see that the breakdown was invalidated, but the fact that it moved to new lows while gold rallied is extremely bearish. It seems like the junior miners simply can’t wait to break to new lows.The bottom line?If gold repeats its June slide, it will decline by about $150. Taking the entire decline into account (since August 2020), for every $1 that gold fell, on average, the GDX was down by about 4 cents (3.945 cents) and GDXJ was down by about 6.5 cents (6.504 cents).This means that if gold was to fall by about $150 and miners declined just as they did so far in the past year (no special out- or underperformance), they would be likely to fall by $5.92 (GDX) and $9.76 (GDXJ). Given the Jul. 8 closing prices, this would imply price moves to $27.76 (GDX) and $35.78 (GDXJ). So, the profits on the current short position are likely to soar.In conclusion, while the HUI Index, the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF are likely to have some small breathers along the way, their sprints lower are likely far from finished. When we combine their extreme underperformance relative to gold with the bearish 2008 and 2012 analogues, the gold miners might just huff and puff and blow their own houses down. As a result, while 2021 has already delivered two desperate pleas for more oxygen, the trio will likely require a third ventilator in the coming months. The outlook for the following weeks remains very bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Banks Kick Off Earnings Season, Are You Fading the CPI Fear?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.07.2021 18:11
It is the start of earnings season for US equities, with major banks reporting this week. Let’s see how bank earnings pair up with the much anticipated CPI data on Tuesday morning.After last week’s sudden Thursday dip and subsequent rebound on Friday to close at all-time highs in the $SPX, I hope the weekend has you feeling relaxed and rejuvenated. I say that because this week could provide some elements of fireworks; given the economic data on tap and the beginning of the Q2 earnings season.The Banks.In the second half of last week, our analyses focused on interest rates and the banks. In case you missed it, we were specifically looking at interest rates via TLT and banks via KBE. Friday was a great day for the banks...could this be a harbinger of things to come for bank earnings?Figure 1 - KBE S&P 500 Bank ETF January 18, 2021 - July 9, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comPlease refer to the July 6th publication where we analyzed KBE in depth. I think there are so many reasons to like the banks here. If you are a premium subscriber, you received an alert email on Wednesday regarding some intraday trading activity and levels.Note that the RSI(14) has not even crossed the 50 line yet. These levels could indicate that there is still time to get on board the banks ahead of earnings. Some folks are fundamentally predicting a big bank's earnings season this week.For example, we have Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research looking for the second-best YOY quarterly gain in the last 25 years for the banks.KBE tacked on 3.83% on Friday. If you recall, part of the reason we initially started to love the banks (KBE) was that it had pulled back over 9% from its 2021 highs; as the S&P 500 had continued to make new highs.Putting that together with the technical action late last week and heading into earnings, it could be a great place to continue to be. We will be looking for exit levels in the coming days and weeks, with Premium Subscribers receiving the intraday alerts.Interest Rate Action and ReactionAs banks surged on Friday ahead of earnings, interest rates rose along with them. That is part of a goldilocks scenario for banks. Has the time for banks come and the turn in interest rates along with it?Figure 2 - Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield January 7, 2020 - July 9, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comTen-year note yields rose on Friday in tandem with bank stocks. Please see the July 7th and July 8th publications for more detail on $TNX.So far this morning, it has been a quiet session in equities and bonds. Since we have CPI data on tap for tomorrow at 8:30 AM, it is to be expected.Our interest rate analysis led us to TLT and a potential long-term head in shoulders pattern being created. As bond yields rose on Friday, TLT fell nicely.Figure 3 - TLT iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF July 2, 2021 - July 12, 2021, 10:35 AM, 15-Minute Candles Source stooq.comThe 15-minute candles in TLT show an exhaustion gap up to levels we were watching on Thursday; and a gap lower on Friday. Notice what may be a short-term head and shoulders pattern forming here on the intraday charts that coincides with the long-term head and shoulders pattern that we identified. I like to call this the matching pattern within the pattern. More on that another time.This morning, we do see the equities beginning to gain a bit of steam and the bond yields dropping slightly. We have CPI data tomorrow morning, so it could be a quiet session as traders look to tomorrow's CPI release.Are you fading the CPI data fear? Is it possible that tomorrow’s inflation data release is not so bad, and that the inflation is indeed transitory, as the Fed has spoken about on multiple occasions? I think there is a possibility of this, and it has never been a good idea to fight the Fed.I like the idea of being long the banks and short bonds (higher interest rates) heading into tomorrow’s CPI release and this week’s bank earnings releases.Now, let’s cover the stop loss, take profit, and other key levels in KBE and TLT, along with analyses on the other seven markets we are covering for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Big CPI Data, Bank Earnings Beat Expectations, Mixed Sectors

Big CPI Data, Bank Earnings Beat Expectations, Mixed Sectors

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.07.2021 19:16
Today’s CPI release is in focus as inflation doubles expectations. Tech is leading in morning trade today in New York.Bank earnings were strong this morning; with JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) having big beats versus analyst expectations. These strong earnings results are being overshadowed mid-session with yet another giant print in CPI data.Giant CPI Data PrintThis morning, the market consensus was for a CPI print of 0.5%, but yet again, we got a huge number at 0.9%. This level is the highest since 2008 and has seemed to put a cloud over today’s trade in New York. The S&P 500 is essentially flat so far today, after dipping 20 handles on the 8:30 AM data release and recuperating all of the CPI news release losses by 10:00 AM. It is one of those kinds of trading sessions so far, but we still have several hours to go today. Tech continues to be strong today, with many individual names lighting up green on the screen. Is the tech trade getting somewhat crowded at these levels?Figure 1 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (September Contract) July 12, 2021 - July 136, 2021, 5 Minute Candles Source stooq.comCash traders wouldn’t even know the movement took place.As today progresses, it feels like the market is digesting the monster CPI print and where capital will be allocated going forward. Interest rates initially fell hard off the data release; but have since been climbing back intraday, as the $SPX has been gaining a little bit of some steam.There is no question that the S&P 500 is in full resilience mode here. Shaking off the large CPI prints without hesitancy and resuming the upside tells us a story. What the end result of that story is going to be is still up for interpretation. As more time passes and more digestion occurs, the picture will become clearer.At times like this, I like to allow the data to be digested before making new decisions. This reflection period allows time to manage perspective and outlook on existing opinions/positions.Figure 2 - TLT iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF June 1, 2021 - July 13, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comIt is starting to look more and more that we have experienced a key reversal day in TLT and interest rates. The candle formation July 7th - 9th resembles an “Evening Star” formation, and the uppermost candle on July 8th looks like it marks a short-term top.An evening star formation is a bearish reversal pattern that continues an uptrend with a long green (up)body day followed by a gapped up small body day, then a down close with the close below the midpoint of the first day.If you are looking to beef up your candlestick knowledge, I highly suggest checking out ChartSchool on Stockcharts. It has been a valuable resource for 20 years and continues to be an excellent reference and knowledge resource.Right now, let’s see how the remainder of the session plays out given the big bank earnings results so far; and the large CPI data print.I still like the idea of staying long the banks and short bonds (higher interest rates) at this time.Now, let’s examine the nine markets that we are covering for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Gold: Ominous Clouds Gather Above the Metals

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.07.2021 14:39
The news hitting the market is clouding the precious metals outlook – higher U.S. Treasuries and a hawkish FED are turning into a dangerous concoction.Running Out of ExcusesWith investors’ attention span rivaling that of a young child, the inflationary carousel has gone from hot to cold and to hot once again. For example, after short-covering, the Delta variant and the FED’s hawkish shift dropped the guillotine on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, the long-term benchmark languished in defeat. However, with inflation’s reincarnation once again shifting the narrative, I warned on Jul. 9 that investors are still underestimating the inflationary fervor.I wrote:With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Jul. 13, another dose of reality could be forthcoming. Case in point: with the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) surging by 18.98% year-over-year (YoY) in May – the highest YoY percentage increase since 1974 – the print implies a roughly 5% to 5.5% YoY increase in the headline CPI. To explain, when the commodity PPI increased by 17.4% YoY in July 2008, the headline CPI rose by 5.3% in August. Thus, with the commodity PPI surging by 18.98% in May, all signs point to another ‘surprising’ headline CPI print for June.To that point, with the headline CPI surging by 5.32% YoY on Jul. 13 (vs. 4.90% expected), the “transitory” narrative suffered another body blow. For context, all inflation is transitory. However, there is a profound difference between three months of transitory inflation and 12 months of transitory inflation.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the commodity PPI, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair have a close connection.Likewise, while investors comb through the print and search for aberrations that support their outlook, they’re missing the most important link. For example, with the Used Cars and Trucks CPI surging by 45.2% YoY in June, disbelievers suggest that once the outlier recedes, it will quell the inflationary momentum. For context, I’ve been warning since April that the Manheim Used Vehicle Index signaled a profound jump in the Used Cars and Trucks CPI.Despite that, while investors lament the obvious (of course the Used Cars and Trucks CPI will decelerate in the coming months), the commodity PPI is still the most important indicator of where the inflation story is headed next.Please see below:To explain, the scatterplot above depicts the relationship between the headline CPI and the commodity PPI (since 1994). For context, the headline CPI is plotted on the vertical axis, while the commodity PPI is plotted on the horizontal axis. If you analyze their movement, you can see that the pair have a strong linear relationship (correlation). Moreover, if you focus your attention on the right side of the chart, you can see that the commodity PPI has only risen by 15% YoY or more (for a month) five times since 1994. On top of that, if you follow the red arrow, you can see that the PPI/CPI relationship remains on trend. The bottom line? If the commodity PPI (which is scheduled for release today) remains hot, then expect the headline CPI to follow suit.The Economy Growing… Too Much?Furthermore, while the Used Cars and Trucks CPI is poised to slow over the medium term, I warned on Jun. 3 that rent inflation could easily take its place. For context, the Shelter CPI accounts for more than 30% of the movement of the headline CPI. And with The Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) projecting that the Shelter CPI will increase from “2.0%annualized to about 4.5%” and “last through at least 2022,” the “‘transitory’ increases to the rate of overall inflation may be more prolonged than many are expecting.”Please see below: Source: Fannie MaeLikewise, with inflation surging and the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) pouring gasoline on the fire, St. Louis FED President James Bullard told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Jul. 12 (released on Jul. 13) that “I am a little bit concerned that we’re feeding into an incipient housing bubble ... [and] I think we don’t need to be doing that with the economy growing at 7%.”Please see below:Source: WSJIn addition, Conagra Brands CEO Sean Connolly also warned on Jul. 13 that “this is an atypical level of inflation [and] it’s the highest inflation level our company has seen in as many years as we can remember.” For context, Conagra Brands is an American food manufacturer and is home to well-known brands such as Marie Callender’s, Healthy Choice and Slim Jim.Please see below:Source: BloombergIf that wasn’t enough, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon was asked during the company’s Q2 earnings call on Jul. 13 about how the current recovery compares to the recovery following the global financial crisis (GFC). He responded:“I think they're completely different fundamentally…. The consumer, their house value is up, their stock rises up, their incomes are up, their savings are up, their confidence are up. The pandemic is kind of in the rearview mirror. Hopefully, nothing gets worse with it. And they're ready to go.”He added:“Jobs are plentiful, wages are going up. These are all good things. And so, obviously, if the inflation can be worse than people think, I think it will be a little bit worse with these kinds of things. I don't think it's all temporary, but that doesn't matter if we have very strong growth.”Even more revealing, while Dimon said that he’s “not predicting” that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield “goes to 3%,” he mentioned that “you may have growth in the second half this year [that’s] stronger than it's ever been in the United States of America.” Furthermore, CFO Jeremy Barnum said that the largest bank in the U.S. is putting its money where its mouth is and that’s why the cash on its balance sheet has not been invested in U.S. Treasuries.Please see below:Source: JPMorgan/Seeking AlphaFinally, with the Chicago FED releasing its Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC) on Jul. 13, its labor cost index is now at an all-time high and its non-labor cost index remains materially elevated. Thus, the FED is running out of excuses for not scaling back its bond-buying program.Source: Chicago FEDIn conclusion, the PMs continue to hope for a bullish catalyst, but the news hitting the market is clouding their outlook. While conventional wisdom suggests that surging inflation is bullish for the gold, silver, and mining stocks, the cocktail of higher U.S. Treasury yields and a hawkish FED more than offsets the optimistic long-term argument. As a result, while the PMs may generate short-term bursts of strength, and their very long-term outlook remains favorable, their medium-term outlook is extremely ominous. With the USD Index gunning for 93, and surging inflation likely to force the FED’s hand, a September taper is unlikely to elicit a positive response from the metals.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Technical Analysis – GBP Finds Buying InterestFOREX

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 15.07.2021 09:40
GBPUSD bounces off Fibonacci levelThe better-than-expected UK CPI in June has lifted the sterling across the board.Price action has seen strong support above 1.3730, a critical demand zone on the daily chart. After the initial rally, the pair has bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3800) while the RSI recovered back to the neutral area.Following a previous failed attempt, a bullish breakout above the supply zone around 1.3920 could boost confidence on the buy-side and trigger a reversal.Then the psychological level of 1.4000 would be the next target.USDCAD gains key supportThe Canadian dollar softened after the BOC cut its bond-buying less aggressively than expected. The pair previously saw profit-takings near the recent top at 1.2550.The RSI’s triple top in the overbought area was already a sign of overextension. The price has once again bounced off 1.2430, a former resistance turned into a support. A bullish breakout could extend the rally beyond 1.2600.But if buyers struggle to hold the range, the greenback could be vulnerable to a sell-off. Then 1.2300 would be the next stop.NZDUSD rallies to major resistanceThe New Zealand dollar soared after the RBNZ cut its QE program in anticipation of policy tightening.The initial surge above 0.7010 reveals renewed buying interest after the kiwi spent weeks above the important daily support at 0.6920.The psychological level of 0.7000 saw its role reversed into a support. A rally above 0.7060 brings the kiwi closer to the critical supply area at 0.7100. Its breach may trigger a bullish reversal.In the meantime, an overbought RSI can lead to a limited pullback as buyers build their momentum.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Silver, a new way to think

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.07.2021 15:33
For example, let us assume grocery prices have increased by 33% within the last twelve months. This would mean that if you had US$150,000 in your bank account, they would now only be worth US$100,000. But you rarely think this way. Usually, you always take your currency as the base and instead think that grocery prices went up.What is required is to compare values. This is especially essential when it comes to wealth preservation. Let us assume you have a 401k. What this means is you have your value stored in the stock market. The stock market is highly overvalued. And you get for your stocks and bonds dollars at maturity. Hence, you own something expensive, but you receive possibly little purchasing value in exchange. In other words, you are exposed to risk.If you would like to add something to your long-term investment plan, you should look for value compared to what you already own. You should purchase cheap value. And Silver is a good bet.S&P 500 versus Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, History repeats itself:S&P 500 versus Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 15th, 2021.Starting from the left on the above monthly chart comparing the S&P 500 versus Gold, the stock market began to explode in 1995. While the stock market had a bubble build up tripling in price in the following six years, Gold lost 33% of its luster. Eight years later, the picture was reversed. Now Gold had run up three hundred percent, and the stock market was cut in half.As of late, we see a similar picture. While the Gold market is trading sideways to down, the stock market had another substantial seventy percent run-up. From a technical perspective view, this run-up has characteristics of a blow-off top. We expect a reversal and would not be surprised to see the stock market losing 40% or more and, in turn, Gold nearly doubling.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Bet on the strong horse:Silver versus Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 15th, 2021.Gold is the leader in the precious metal sector and enjoys popularity in wealth preservation, but we find Silver’s price development to be the more aggressive one. If you look at the weekly chart above, you will find Silver pushing stronger towards another leg up than Gold has over the last eleven months. Hence, we suspect Silver to outpace Gold by percentage in the next leg up. Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Fifty/fifty and rising:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 15th, 2021.We can make out that Silver broke out of a multi-year sideways range on the monthly chart above. It moved substantially, building the first leg last year and building a one-year-long bull flag, which is about to resolve itself.As of right now, the odds are only 50/50 for Silver monthly prices to rise, but if prices hold current levels, these odds can change dramatically within the next two weeks. A price close above US$26.07 by the end of this monthly candle will make us an aggressive buyer in August.Silver, a new way to think:One way to illustrate how deep the thinking in currency reaches is the phenomenon of the 99-cent store. The illusion that anything below a dollar is cheap created an empire (99only).Another one is the abnormal behavior of the markets in the denomination units of the currency at 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 dollars, for example. Below each of these units, value is perceived cheap, and above these increments, value is expensive. Consequently, stops are placed closely near these figures. Meaning it shouldn’t be underestimated how deeply these behaviors in relationship to currency are rooted. It requires proactive reconditioning, training, if you will, to think, in other units as a benchmark. You can use ounces of Gold or Silver and even Bitcoin. Practice this new way of translating cost and value to you, and you will have a heads-up to procrastinators who hang on to an old paradigm that does not actively reflect a measurement tool translating their wealth.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 15th, 2021|Tags: Gold/Silver-Ratio, low risk, S&P500/Gold-Ratio, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Bond Yields Slipping, How Long Can Inflation Be Transitory?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.07.2021 20:28
Since the big CPI and PPI prints earlier this week, markets have been trying to figure out direction and sentiment. What will be the outcome of continued higher inflation prints?Capital markets seem to be a bit confused as to what to do next. As Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified in front of House and Senate committees over the last two days, there doesn’t seem to be any additional clarity in my eyes.I wanted to wait until the Fed’s 2-day testimony concluded before publishing today’s opinion piece to gain any additional clarity on the markets.There is a conundrum that exists right now. We keep getting higher inflation readings, and the Fed has already telecasted that higher rates are in the cards in 2023 (maybe 2022). Inflation is a problem and needs to be tamed. One way of taming it is to raise interest rates. There are other tools at the Fed’s disposal to tame interest rates like tapering and more. The question becomes, at what point is action going to be taken?As the Fed testified in Congress yesterday and today, interest rates fell and the price action seemed anything but typical following Wednesday’s poor 30-year bond auction. We get it, the markets are addicted to low interest rates, but unless hyperinflation is the goal, it feels like something needs to change soon. When will the Fed begin tapering bond buying? How about some incremental tapering or very fractional interest rate increases such as an eighth of a percentage point or something? If something doesn’t change soon, we could be heading for a 1981 style inflationary environment. Rates are going to have to rise, and the stock market is not going to like it. However, action needs to be taken.Will the US equity markets be able to maintain their upward trajectory?All of this stimulus, decade-plus near-zero interest rates, bond buying, and market addiction to easy monetary policy will have repercussions eventually.Since we have been analyzing TLT, let’s take a look at the 30 Year Bond Futures:Figure 1 - U.S. Treasury Bond Futures July 8, 2021 - July 15, 2021, 1 Hour Candles Source stooq.comThe puzzling price action (or perhaps not so puzzling in retrospect given the 2-day Fed testimony) is the creep higher after the weak demand shown in Wednesday’s 30-year bond auction. If you were short bonds at this time via TLT or any product, things were looking good. Since that auction, we had the Fed testimony, which showed many select congress members pleading for interest rates to be kept low. Unfortunately, if rates remain at rock bottom levels, it seems like inflation could spiral out of control. This continued inflation would be bad for the American people.It is unusual price action; to say the least. The 30-year bond auction was priced at 2%, and demand was extraordinarily weak. There is a solid explanation of this most recent bond auction on Barrons.However, today, we have 30-year bonds catching a bid near 1.94%. Yes, it is illogical. Yes, markets can be illogical for extended periods.Looking at the 30-year bond from a perspective of yield:Figure 2 - U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield July 7, 2021 - July 15, 2021, 1 Hour Candles Source stooq.comFed’s James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President urged for tapering of bonds earlier today.At the time of writing, we have the bonds continuing to be bid with the $SPX moving lower. The message of the market is exhibiting signs of change in my eyes. I don’t want to sound any overall warning bells just yet, but I am tuned in all day, every business day.Now, let’s review the markets we are monitoring along with analyses on the other seven markets we are covering for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Struggles To Bounce

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.07.2021 06:40
AUDUSD tests key supportThe Australian dollar softens as the state of Victoria goes into a five-day lockdown.Last week’s bearish breakout below 0.7450 has given the bears the upper hand. The price’s failure to lift offers around 0.7500 further confirms the downward bias. The current consolidation is likely an accumulation phase for the sell-side.Buyers are struggling to hold above the critical support at 0.7410. A drop could invalidate the timid rebound and trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.7300.EURGBP capped by resistanceThe Pound rallied after average earnings jumped in the past three months. The euro’s latest rebound was capped by 0.8565, where strong selling interest pushed it back to the base.From the daily chart’s perspective, the pair moves south in a falling channel in spite of a choppy path. A break below the floor at 0.8510 could send the price towards 0.8480, key support from April’s rally.On the upside, even if buyers succeed in clearing 0.8565, 0.8595 could be a tough resistance to crack in the short term.US 30 rally seems overstretchedThe Dow Jones consolidates as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed again on the temporary nature of inflation. The rally has halted at May’s high at 35090.The RSI divergence shows a loss in the upward momentum, suggesting that buyers were eager to take profit. A shooting star at the latest high is another indication of a lack of commitment from the buy-side, which may foreshadow a correction.34660 is the key support and its breach would prompt short-term buyers to bail out, confirming the U-turn in the process.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Is FED Playing Cat and Mouse with Investors?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.07.2021 15:18
Investors prick up their ears to front-run the FED’s taper. It looks like a tricky game though, given its contradictory statements – what’s the truth?You Don't Say!At first it was nothing, then it was something, and now it’s…Source: CNBCSpeaking with CNBC on Jul. 15, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen – who preceded Jerome Powell as the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) – said that declining long-term Treasury yields is “the market expressing its views that inflation does remain under control.” However, while the contradictory statements of “several more months of rapid inflation” and “inflation does remain under control” are quite humorous, she has a point: with bond investors eager to front-run the FED’s forthcoming taper, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has been the main casualty. And with gold often moving inversely of the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the development has strengthened the yellow metal.Please see below:To explain, the gold line above tracks the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price, while the red line above tracks the inverted U.S. 10-Year real yield. For context, inverted means that the latter’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising red line represents a falling U.S. 10-Year real yield, while a falling red line represents a rising U.S. 10-Year real yield.If you analyze the relationship, you can see that one’s pain is often the other one’s gain. And if you focus your attention on the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. 10-Year real yield’s recent malaise has uplifted the yellow metal.Despite that, while Powell and Yellen continue to make excuses for their lack of foresight, Powell actually told Congress on Jul. 15 that surging inflation caught ‘everyone’ by surprise.Please see below:Source: CNBCHowever, while I’ve been warning for months that inflation was likely to boil, both policymakers are underestimating the lasting effects. And in the process, bond investors have buried their heads in the sand. Conversely, while “temporary” and “transitory” remain Powell’s favorite buzzwords, supply chain disruptions still haven’t fully filtered into the core Consumer Price Index (CPI).Please see below:Source: Robin Brooks/Institute of International Finance (IIF)To explain, the chart on the left depicts the effect of supplier delivery times on the core Producer Price Index (PPI). If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the red and light blue lines are roughly three standard deviations above their historical average (follow the scales on the right side of both charts). Conversely, if you analyze the chart on the right, you can see that the core CPI (the light blue line) is still less than two standard deviations above its historical average. As a result, the core CPI still hasn’t felt the brunt of the inflationary surge.What’s more, the New York FED released its Empire State Manufacturing Survey on Jul. 15. And with one header reading “Selling Prices Increase at Record-Setting Pace,” cost-push inflation remains alive and well.Please see below:Source: NY FEDIn addition, New York’s’ manufacturing sector expanded rapidly and supply chain disruptions (delivery times) remain an issue. An excerpt from the report read:“Business activity grew at a record-setting pace in New York State, The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-six points to 43.0. New orders and shipments increased robustly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories expanded. Employment grew strongly, and the average workweek increased. Input prices continued to increase sharply, and selling prices rose at the fastest pace on record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with the index for future employment reaching another record high.”Turning to the second major player in gold’s bearish forecast, the USD Index is hitting its stride. And as sentiment shifts, the U.S. dollar is gaining significant support from speculators.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue, gray and light blue lines above represent net-long positions of non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds. When the lines are falling, it means that the trio have reduced their net-long positions and are expecting a weaker U.S. dollar. Conversely, when the lines are rising, it means that the trio have increased their net-long positions and are expecting a stronger U.S. dollar. And if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that non-commercial futures traders and asset managers have completely changed their tune (though leveraged funds’ movement has been minimal).On top of that, the latest USD Outlook from Vanda Research offers an interesting take on the FED’s forthcoming taper. Predicting that a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event will unfold over the next several weeks, the firm believes that speculators will likely front-run the expected announcement.Please see below:To explain, if you analyze the first chart on the left, the pink bars (two months before), the dark blue bars (actual event) and the light blue bars (two months after) depict speculators’ USD positioning before, during and after hawkish FED announcements. And if you analyze the relationship, more often than not, speculators buy the U.S. dollar in anticipation, hold throughout the event and then bail after the drama unfolds. As further evidence, if you turn to the chart on the right, you can see that leveraged funds are notorious for front-running the FED’s actions. With eight weeks preceding major FED events often resulting in significant increases in net-long positioning, leveraged funds aim to strike while the iron is hot. The bottom line? With the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium scheduled for Aug. 26-28 (roughly six weeks away), another front-run could already be underway.Finally, while I’ve been warning for some time that the FED’s daily reverse repurchase agreements are the fundamental equivalent of a shadow taper (though, it doesn’t have the same psychological effect), the FED sold $776.261 billion worth of reverse repos on Jul. 15 and $859.975 billion worth of reverse repos on Jul. 14. More importantly, though, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield often moving inversely of the FED’s international reverse repos, bond investors are behaving as if the taper is already underway.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue line above tracks the quarterly percentage change in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, while the light blue line above tracks the FED’s inverted (scale flipped upside down) international reverse repos. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the larger the liquidity drain, the more bond investors position for slower growth, lower inflation and a hawkish FED.Conversely, the dynamic has the opposite effect on the USD Index. With U.S. dollars being siphoned out of the system, it’s akin to the FED reducing its QE program. As such, the liquidity drain (lower supply of dollars) is extremely bullish for the greenback.In conclusion, while the PMs have been buoyed by falling real yields, their relative performance has been extremely subdued. From March through May, gold rallied sharply once the U.S. 10-Year real yield reversed course. This time around, however, the bounce has been tepid, as concerns over a prospective taper counters the bullish optimism. As a result, with the USD Index gaining steam, inflation surging and a taper announcement likely to commence in September, the PMs’ optimism could evaporate at the drop of a dime. Thus, it’s prudent to avoid reading too much into their recent strength.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.07.2021 22:41
Inflation surged in May, and some worry that it has already reached its peak. Has it indeed? This issue is key for the Fed and the gold market.Inflation has soared recently. The CPI annual rate surged 5% in May, which was the fastest jump since the Great Recession. However, the Fed officials still maintain that inflation will only be temporary. Some of the analysts even claim that inflation has already peaked, and it will decelerate from now on. Are they right?Well, they present a few strong arguments. First, there is no doubt that the recent rise in prices has been partially caused by the problems with the supply chains. But, luckily, the bottlenecks are short-lived phenomena, and they always resolve themselves, i.e., by the magic of market mechanism. The best example may be lumber prices which were skyrocketing earlier this year but which have recently declined, as production surged in response to rallying prices.Second, the detailed data on inflation shows that the surge in the overall inflation index was partially driven by categories that were heavily distorted by the pandemic, such as used cars or airline fares. The increases in these categories are not surprising or worrying, given the current recovery from the epidemic.Third, the market-based inflation expectations have already peaked. As the chart below shows, both 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates have reached their heights in May. Since then, the former ones have declined from above 2.7% to about 2.3%, while the latter from above 2.5% to about 2.2%It means that the markets bought the Fed’s narrative about temporary inflation and started to worry less about it.Should gold investors do the same? I’m not so sure. To be clear, I acknowledge and always acknowledged that the supply problems contributed to the acceleration in inflation. However, the risk of inflation doesn’t solely depend on continuously rising commodity prices. And the Fed officials always say that increases in inflation rates are temporary, as they don’t want to admit they failed in maintaining price stability.Some fundamental factors supporting high inflation are still in force. First, as the chart below shows, the broad money supply is still increasing fast (although there was a deceleration since February), as the monetary impulses probably haven’t been fully transmitted into the real economy yet.Second, both the monetary and fiscal policies remain very easy. Given President Biden’s fiscal agenda and the continuous increase in the public debt, the Fed is unlikely to materially normalize its monetary policy.Third, we know that in response to input cost inflation, producers raised their charges at an unprecedented pace. It means that their power to pass on greater costs has increased, which could increase both inflation and consumers’ expectations of inflation in the future.Fourth, we have just finished recovering from the economic crisis. Usually, inflationary pressures only intensify with the progress of the business cycle. With a developing and then maturing economic expansion, employment will rise, manufacturing capacity will be more fully utilized, and inflation could prove to be more persistent than anticipated by the pundits. Please remember that the fiscal stimulus the economy got was greater than the estimated size of the output gap, so the risk of overheating is still present, even if some bottlenecks have resolved.Last but not least, the rise in inflation wasn’t driven solely by the recovery from the pandemic. Some categories which were severely hit by the epidemic are not surging. For example, the index for food away from home rose annually by 4% in May 2021. Meanwhile, some core components surged. For instance, the index for shelter, which makes almost one-third of the overall index, increased from 1.5% in February to 2.2% in May 2021, as the chart below shows. It suggests that inflation may be more broad-based than many analysts think.What does all this mean for the gold market? Well, if inflation remains high or even continues to rise, the real interest rates will remain in negative territory, supporting gold prices. However, there is an important caveat: upward inflationary surprises could force the Fed to send fresh hawkish messages or even taper its quantitative easing earlier than planned, pushing the nominal bond yields higher and creating selling pressure on gold prices.It seems that so far investors were more worried by the sooner-than-expected hikes in the federal funds rate than by the rising inflation and the fact that the FOMC members have raised their inflation forecasts by an entire percentage point. Gold bulls need a shift in investors’ focus. Otherwise, the markets could remain optimistic about the future, purchasing risky assets rather than safe havens such as gold.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Rebound Gains Traction

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Rebound Gains Traction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.07.2021 08:43
USDJPY challenges key resistanceThe Japanese yen weakened after the BoJ slashed growth forecasts due to pandemic curbs.The greenback has met buying interest at 109.70, a major demand zone on the daily timeframe. A successful rebound would safeguard the rally in the medium term.An oversold RSI has prompted the bulls to stake in for a bargain as it recovers to the neutral area.The support-turned-resistance at 110.50 is the first hurdle, its clearance could propel the price to the psychological level of 111.00.USDCHF bounces towards daily supply areaThe US dollar claws back losses as June’s retail sales beat the consensus. The pair has found support on the 30-day moving average (0.9120).The bullish breakout above 0.9195 indicates that buyers may have turned the tide in their favor. The bullish MA cross also points to an acceleration to the upside.0.9260 is a major resistance ahead. Its breach would resume the rally and open the path towards April’s peak at 0.9450. 0.9170 is the immediate support in case of a pullback.EURAUD rallies to previous highThe euro rises as the eurozone’s CPI meets the market’s expectation in June. Sentiment remains bullish after the price broke above the major resistance (1.5940) from the daily chart.The latest correction could be mere accumulation to lay the groundwork for the next round of rallies. The pair bounced back from the 50% (1.5790) Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish breakout above 1.5980 would trigger a runaway rally towards 1.6100.On the downside, 1.5870 is the first support to let the RSI cool down.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

USDX: A Crocodile Just About To Strike

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.07.2021 15:06
Taking a sip from a crocodile pond is risky, but some animals try anyway. And die. Beware, as trying to profit from the PM’s pool now could end alike.Just as ignoring a crocodile hiding in plain sight, ignoring the USD Index is a dangerous activity. And while investors continue to drink from the pond, the greenback’s nose is literally perched at the water’s surface. The USD Index is currently consolidating below the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern, so its wide eyes are also glaringly visible. And with a strike liable to happen at any moment, a leap above 93 could make the USD Index devour gold, silver and mining stocks.To explain, the USD Index often soars during the summer months (major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year), and while the greenback’s back-and-forth movement has uplifted the PMs, once the USDX resumes its likely uptrend, the former’s optimism could dissipate rather quickly. As a result, if the ambush ushers the USD Index above 93, the next stop is likely 98.Please see below:Furthermore, the seasonal thesis remains intact: I mentioned above that the USD Index often records material upswings during the middle of the year. And with the hunter’s disguise nearly always catching overzealous investors by surprise, will the next trap be any different?In fact, the USD index seems to be breaking above the neck level of its inverse head-and-shoulders formation at the moment of writing these words.The week started with a breakout, so there’s plenty of time for the markets to react before the next bigger break takes place (the next weekend). In other words, this week could be quite volatile and nothing like the previous weeks’ boredom. Gold, silver, and mining stocks might slide quite profoundly before we hear Friday’s closing bell.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that summertime surges have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and double bottoms often signal the end of major declines or ignite significant rallies. For example, in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights. In addition, back in 2008, U.S. equities’ plight added even more wind to the USD Index’s sails. And if the general stock market suffers another profound decline (along with gold miners and silver), a sharp re-rating of the USDX is likely in the cards.Please see below (quick reminder: you can click on the chart to enlarge it):On top of that, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, a profound uptrend is already in place.Please see below:As another important variable, the Euro Index’s recent symmetrical decline mirrors the drawdown that we witnessed in mid-2020. And if the Euro Index breaks below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, the steep decline could usher the index back to the June 2020 lows or even lower. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index.In addition, when the Euro Index reached the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern in early April 2021, late September 2020, and late October 2020, a fierce rally ensued. However, this time around, the corrective upswing has been extremely weak. As a result, with lower highs and lower lows plaguing the Euro Index in recent weeks, it’s likely only a matter of time before the neckline breaks.Please see below:Even more relevant, the completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign. That’s another point for the bearish price prediction for gold.The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, while gold, silver and mining stocks are increasingly treading water, the USD Index’s jaws are expanding. And with the greenback poised to take a bite out of the trio’s performance over the medium term, the precious metals could be in for a long and arduous recovery. However, after the drama unfolds, gold, silver and mining stocks are poised to continue their long-term secular uptrends.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Bitcoin, reinvent yourself

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.07.2021 11:12
The weekly snapshot taking isn’t picked at random.Each trade should have at least three timeframe components.A trade setup time frame where the edges get stacked, and risk/reward is determined, with targets and a stop level.A time frame higher than the setup timeframe, which needs to confirm trading direction. If you have a long entry set up on a daily chart, but the weekly chart has a downtrend of price, this setup is invalid and should therefore not be executed.And an entry time frame is the next lower time frame below the setup time frame, allowing for more precise entry timing and stacking odds to minimize risk.For example, suppose you are a position trader with a typical holding period of 2-4 weeks. In that case, you are looking for a trend on the weekly chart. Find a setup on a daily chart in the direction of that trend. And fine-tune the entry on the sixty-minute timeframe.This makes the weekly chart a part of even the largest time frame market participants and day-traders should not ignore its trend, hence our choice for weekly publications.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Monthly time frame for direction:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 20th, 2021.One of the best ways to reinvent yourself, meaning to get in a proper neutral state, is finding a relatively quiet trading spot within the 24/7 Bitcoin trading environment. Or even better, turn your real-time data feed off, so that the charts can not stimulate you with movement. Start with the largest time frame from your triple time frame set up and get a sense of the long-term direction (sideways, up, steep up, down, steep down) and only consider setups in the time frame below (the setup time frame) that follow this direction.In this week’s chart book, we take as an example the monthly time frame for a long-term Bitcoin position. Bitcoin, reinvent yourself.We can see on the monthly chart above a clear long-term bullish note on Bitcoin. In addition, we see good support based on our overlaying two Fibonacci retracements. In retracement A from the absolute lows of the latest strong up-leg from March last year, we get good price support. From the second measurement of the pure breakout leg through US$20,000, we have already had a bounce with a doji indecision bar of last month. Consequently, we are looking for long setups only on the next lower time frame, the weekly chart.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Weekly time frame for setups:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2021.Having identified the monthly time frame to a bullish trend on Bitcoin, we wouldn’t consider even a beautiful short setup since we insist on all edges stacking in our favor. This already cuts our entry horizon of possibilities in half.The weekly chart above shows an entry possibility on low risk near prices on the bottom of a sideways range right now (yellow box). This ten-week trading range between US$30,000 and US$39,000 has substantial fractal volume support, as shown in the histogram on the right side of the chart. We also find previous price support (see a green horizontal line). In addition, prices trade at the mean, also a typical reversal and support spot (yellow directional line). BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Daily time frame for execution:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 20th, 2021.The weekly chart time frame planning sets the tone for our daily calls. A daily review for what execution setups we would be looking for and, most of all, filtering out any trades we are NOT interested in.  See our daily call methodology. We post these daily calls for various asset classes daily in our free Telegram channel.By focusing on what not to do, we avoid the blue car syndrome and use a tool to reinvent ourselves.In the daily chart above, you can see a possible turning point in the making. We would not be surprised if prices penetrate the range violently to quickly reverse, creating a wick, as it has in the past (white circles).No matter what methodology you use in fine-tuning your entries and reducing risk, right now is the time to pay attention.Bitcoin, reinvent yourself:The neutral mindset isn’t the only aspect of trading that calls for a daily reinvention. The mind that observes is a different one than the mind that executes trades. The observer evaluates, compares, and debates, necessary to find edges and build systems. The executioner must follow a clear set of rules blindly and can’t afford debate. Last-minute evaluation creates stress and an unwanted reach for intuition-an aspect not valuable for a counter-intuitive environment.Consequently, this means a scheduled daily routine where one reinvents oneself repeatedly to be a valuable tool in market participation or otherwise; the vast sea of choices within the market swallows you and exploits the lack of discipline.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 20th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
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Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.07.2021 14:41
Powell admits that inflation is well above the Fed’s target, but he still considers it transitory. Gold increased in response – only to fall again.Last week, Powell testified before Congress. On the one hand, Powell admitted in a way that inflation had reached a level higher than expected and is above the level accepted by the Fed in the longer run:Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.It means that the Fed was surprised by high inflation, but it doesn’t want to admit it explicitly. Instead, Powell admitted that inflation would likely stay at a high level for some time. The obvious question here is: why should we believe the Fed that inflation will really moderate later this year, given that the US central bank failed in forecasting inflation in the first half of 2021?What’s more, Powell acknowledged that he hasn’t felt comfortable with the current level of inflation:Right now, inflation is not moderately above 2%; it is well above 2%. The question is, where does it leave us six months from now? It depends on the path of the economy.It means that, at some point in the future, if high inflation turns out to be more persistent than expected, the Fed will act to bring inflation back to lower levels. However, nobody knows when exactly it could happen – and I bet that, for political reasons, it would happen rather later than sooner.Indeed, even though inflation turned out to be higher than previously thought, Powell downplayed the danger of rising prices, reiterating the view that inflation is transitory. In particular, Powell maintained that recent price hikes were closely related to the post-pandemic recovery and would fade after some time:The high inflation readings are for a small group of goods and services directly tied to reopening.I dare to disagree. It’s true that the hike in the index for used cars accounted for one-third of the June CPI jump. But two-thirds of 5.4% is 3.6%, still much above the Fed’s target! Anyway, in line with its narrative, the Fed doesn’t see a need to rush with its tightening cycle. After all, the US labor market is – according to Powell and his colleagues from the FOMC – still far from achieving “substantial further progress”, with 7.5 million jobs missing from the level seen before the start of the pandemic. So, the tapering of quantitative easing is – as Powell noted – “still a ways off”. So, overall, Powell’s remarks were dovish and positive for the yellow metal.Implications for GoldWhat does Powell’s recent testimony imply for the gold market? Well, the yellow metal initially rose after his appearance in Congress. This is probably because investors bought the narrative about transitory inflation and decided that monetary taps would stay open for a long time and tapering would start later than investors expected in the aftermath of the recent dot-plot. The rising cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus is another reason why investors could bet that the Fed would maintain its accommodative monetary policy. So, the bond yields declined, while the price of gold increased as the chart below shows.However, gold’s reaction was disappointingly soft given the dovishness of Powell’s remarks, and the yellow metal declined again later last week amid some better-than-expected economic data. It seems that there is hesitancy among precious metals investors about whether or not to take a more decisive step with purchases of gold. The reason is probably that, sooner or later, the interest rates will have to rise in response to inflation. It means that the opportunity costs of holding gold will increase, exerting some downward pressure on gold.Nevertheless, the real interest rates should remain low, so gold prices shouldn’t drop like a stone. Actually, in the longer run, when inflation creates some economic problems while the economic growth slows down, the yellow metal could finally benefit from the stagflationary conditions.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
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Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.07.2021 15:07
After the sharp drop in the first half of June and a tenacious sideways bottoming out, the gold price recovered to US$1,834 and thus reached its 200-day moving average (US$ 1,827) again. Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?ReviewSince gold prices reached a new all-time high at US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020, the entire precious metal sector has been in a multi-month correction. After eight months within this correction, gold fell back to an important double low at around US$1,676 in mid and late March. From there, prices recovered strongly in April and May. This wave up ended at US$1,916 (+14.3% in eight and a half weeks). Subsequently, gold prices came under strong selling pressure once again. A quick and steep sell off took prices down by US$142 within just one week between June 11th and 18th. But it was not until June 29th that the gold market finally found its turning point at US$1,750. From here, an initially tenacious but step by step more dynamic recovery towards US$1,834 began. Over the last few days, gold slipped back below US$1,800 only to recover quickly back to US$1,815.While central bankers, politicians and the media have been talking down the increasing fears of inflation (US consumer price index +5.4% in June), gold was only able to recover slowly from the severe pullback in June. Nevertheless, gold current trades about US$65 higher than at its low point a three weeks ago. Is this the end of the typical early summer correction in the precious metals sector or is there still some more downside to come?Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – The series of higher lows remains intactGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold has been moving higher within a clearly defined uptrend channel (dark green) since autumn 2018. The lower edge of this trend channel was tested in April 2019. The sharp pullback in June, on the other hand, has so far ended at US$1,750 and thus at the connecting line (light green) of the last three higher lows. At the same time, the upper edge of the former downward trend channel (red) was successfully tested for support.If the correction is now over, gold could already be on the way to its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,911). In any case, the stochastic has turned upwards again and thus provides a new buy signal.Overall, the weekly chart is not (yet) convincing, but the bullish tendencies prevail. To confirm the uptrend, a higher high is needed in the next step, which would require gold prices above US$1,916. Until then, however, the bulls still have a lot of work to do. If, on the other hand, the low at US$1,750 is being taken out, another retracement towards the lower edge of the uptrend channel at around US$1,670 to US$1,700 is very likely.Daily Chart – Around the falling 200-day moving averageGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, gold had good support at the cross of a downtrend and an uptrend line. Starting from that zone and the low at US$1,750, gold did already recover slightly above the still falling 200-day moving average (US$1,824). However, as the stochastic oscillator has already moved into the overbought zone and created a new sell signal. As well, the upper Bollinger Band (US$ 1,831) is blocking the bulls. Hence, a consolidation around the 200-day moving average would be a highly conceivable scenario.Bulls need to gain confidence againOnce the important 200-day moving average will have been sustainably recaptured and the bulls will have gained some confidence, the rally could continue and transform into the typical summer rally. The next target would then be the downward trend line from the all-time high via the high from the end of May. This line is currently sitting at around US$1,892 and is falling a few dollars a day.In summary, the daily chart is overbought in the short term. This means that the risk/reward ratio is not good right now. Ideally, however, the bulls will succeed in consolidating around the200-day moving average for at least a few days or even several weeks. This would provide the launching pad for the summer rally and higher gold prices. If, on the other hand, prices fall below US$1,790 again, the correction will likely continue. However, only below US$1,765 the promising setup for a midsummer rally would be destroyed.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Commitments of Traders for Gold as of July 19th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe commercial traders used the sharp pullback in June to cover their short positions again. This has eased the setup in the futures market somewhat. Nevertheless, with 221.028 contracts sold short as of last Tuesday, commercial traders still hold a relatively high short position on the gold future in a longer-term comparison.In summary, the current Commitment of Trades report (CoT) still does not provide a contrarian buy signal but calls for caution and patience.Sentiment for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Sentiment Optix for Gold as of July 19th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe Sentiment in the gold market fell to a low at the end of June and has since recovered quite a bit. However, this low did not represent an extreme, but rather showed only a slight increase in pessimism. The last “real” panic low in the gold market, on the other hand, was last seen in August 2018 with the sell-off at that time down to US$1,160. No one can predict when and if such a good contrarian opportunity will arise again in this bull market. It remains to be said that the correction in June did not lead to any extreme pessimism, and that confidence has already prevailed again.The sentiment thus tends to reinforce the doubts about a sustainable and imminent wave up.Seasonality for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of July 14th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderA strong green light, on the other hand, currently comes from the seasonal component! Statistically, a major bull move in the gold market begins precisely in these days. This wave up usually lasts until the end of September or even mid-October. Although the price action of the last three weeks left the impression of an early summer doldrums, it is precisely this price behavior that fits the seasonal pattern.Hence, as soon as the gold market will start to move, the chances of a strong movement up are very favorable from a seasonal perspective.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith prices of around US$29,500 for one bitcoin and US$1,815 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently around 16.25. This means that you currently must pay a bit more than 16 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Conversely, one ounce of gold currently costs 0.0615 bitcoin. Since the sharp sell off at the beginning of May, the bitcoin/gold ratio has mainly been running sideways. Another price slide does not seem out of the question given the continued weakness of bitcoin. However, the long-term uptrend in favor of bitcoin remains intact, while the stochastic on the ratio chart is heavily oversold.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro update and Crack-up-Boom:FED Balance sheet as of July 10th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzIn terms of monetary expansion, the global uptrend continued in recent weeks, of course. The balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve grew by US$19 billion to a total of US$ 8,097.8 billion and thus once again reached a new all-time high. The Fed’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to 37% of the GDP in the USA.ECB Balance sheet as of July 13th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB’s balance sheet rose by another EUR 18.7 billion last week to a new all-time high of EUR 7,926.6 billion. With this, the ECB also created new billions out of thin air, as it does every week, completely irrespective of which of its various goals (symmetric or average price target, pandemic emergency purchase program PEPP or quantitative easing) is currently supposedly being pursued.ECB Balance sheet in percentage of Eurozone GDP as of July 10th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to over 75% of the GDP of the entire Eurozone, reflecting the ECB’s huge increase in power. The central bank has long since been unable to concentrate on its actual goal of price stability. Instead, it has taken on too many other tasks in the ECB Tower in Frankfurt. And these fiscal and monetary interventions are becoming increasingly vertical.Central banks are destroying the free marketDigital Euro as of Jul 14, 2021. Source: European Central BankHowever, printing money has never worked in the history of mankind. It will not work this time either. The question remains how long the music will continue to play for the dance on the volcano, and whether it will still be possible in time to finally and completely eliminate the free markets with a new digital EUR currency.ECB = Reichsbank 2.0 as of July 8th, 2021. ©Stefan SchmidtIn the end, Madame Lagarde, just like Rudolf Havenstein, is a prisoner of the absurd financial policy that has maneuvered itself into a dead end thanks to an unbacked paper money system. Havenstein, by the way, was also an inflationist and, until his death in November 1923, interpreted the Weimar hyperinflation as a product of the unfavorable balance of payments and did not get the idea that it had come about through the unbridled use of the printing press.Conclusion: Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?After the sharp pullback in June and an initially tenacious bottoming phase, gold recovered towards US$ 1,834 in the last two weeks. Even though this rally took quite some effort, gold makes the impression that there is more upside to come. The summer rally has probably already started. After a temporary consolidation around the 200-day moving average, August should bring significantly higher gold prices (US$1,865 and US$1,910). Short-term pullbacks towards and below US$1,800 are therefore buying opportunities.However, the performance of the mining stocks does not quite fit into this optimistic picture. The GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average. And heavyweights such as Newmont Corporation and Barrick Gold have not been able to get back on their feet at all since the sell-off in mid-June. Despite this weakness in gold mining stocks, the call for a summer rally in the sector will have to be canceled if gold moves back below US$1,765.Analysis initially written on July 15th and published on July 19th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on July 20th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|July 20th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin/gold-ratio, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold correction, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is also chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
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Intraday Market Analysis: AUD In Correction Territory

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.07.2021 10:41
AUDUSD drops along moving averageThe Australian dollar remains underwater as the RBA minutes say no to a rate hike before 2024.The sell-off has accelerated after the Aussie fell through 0.7410, the last stronghold from a previous bounce. The pair is sliding along the 20-day moving average, and the downtrend is heading towards the next support at 0.7230 from the daily chart.However, a repeatedly oversold RSI may prompt sellers to take some chips off the table, causing a temporary rebound. 0.7440 is likely to cap the buyers’ push.USDCAD breaks above major resistanceThe commodity-linked Canadian dollar took a hit after risk appetite receded. The pair saw strong momentum plays after it cleared 1.2650, a major resistance from last April.Short-covering in a crowded bearish trend may have contributed to high volatility. This could be an inflection point for the greenback in the medium term.In the meantime, February’s high at 1.2870 is the next target. Meanwhile, the RSI is back to the neutral area, and the direction is up as long as the price stays above 1.2600.NAS 100 recovers from moving averageThe Nasdaq index seeks support as investors grow wary of the Delta sell-off. The bearish breakout below the key short-term support at 14550 has put buyers under pressure.Price action has so far bounced off the 30-day moving average but buyers will need more assurance to commit again. 14550 is the first support after a rebound above 14680.A high RSI may slow down the pace of the rally. A recovery may only see the light of day if the bulls succeed in pushing above the major hurdle at 14880.
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Junior Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.07.2021 13:38
It seems that choosing GDXJ to short the PMs was a good decision – juniors closed the day at new 2021 lows. Will our profits only grow from now on?Gold’s yesterday’s intraday attempt to rally was not bullish. On the contrary, it was what usually happens right before a big slide. Especially given the USDX’s breakout.Let’s start with the latter.Yesterday there was a second session in a row when the USD Index closed above the neck level of the broad (~yearly) inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Furthermore, it’s been moving slightly higher in today’s session, at least so far.This is a very bullish price action – the USDX’s breakout was not accidental, nor was it based on geopolitical news (the latter tends to trigger temporary moves that are then reversed). Additionally, it was preceded by a consolidation. Consequently, it seems that this breakout has a huge chance of being confirmed (we need just one more – today’s – daily close) and followed by another sharp rally. The previous highs at about 94.5 are the initial upside target, but based on the inverse H&S pattern, the USDX is likely to rally to about 98.Therefore, what just happened (the breakout above the formation’s neckline) has really bullish implications for the U.S. currency. And since the latter tends to move in the opposite direction to gold, silver, and mining stocks, it’s also very bearish for them.Gold and Its StocksThat would be enough on its own to make the outlook for the PMs bearish, but we have many more bearish indications, and some of them are truly profound. The most bearish confirmation of the bearish price prediction for gold doesn’t come from the USD Index but from the extreme underperformance of gold stocks relative to gold.The GDX ETF (senior gold miners) moved below the recent lows, and it closed the day below the neck level of a head-and-shoulders pattern based on the 4-hour candlestick chart. At the same time, the GLD ETF is still relatively close to the middle of its previous decline. If the comparison is still unclear, please consider the mid-May bottom. The GLD ETF closed just slightly below it, while the GDX a few dollars below it.And if you think this kind of relative weakness is bearish, just wait until you see what the junior mining stocks did.Junior miners declined not only below the neck level of the recent head-and-shoulders pattern (very clearly in both: intraday and closing price terms), but they actually closed the day at new 2021 lows! And they didn’t invalidate this breakdown yesterday, despite the intraday attempt!There are two markets that primarily impact the performance of the junior mining stocks. One is gold, and the other is the general stock market. Gold is now about $140 above its 2021 lows, while the S&P 500 is over 16% above its 2021 highs. And yet, the GDXJ is below its previous 2021 lows. It seems that choosing junior miners as a proxy for shorting the precious metals sector was a good decision – our profits are rising rapidly, and it seems that they are going to soar much more in the following weeks.What’s more, juniors are underperforming senior gold miners too. You can see that by comparing the two previous charts and by examining their ratio.The ratio declines when junior miners underperform seniors. This happens often when the general stock market declines – juniors are more correlated with the latter than the seniors. Interestingly, juniors underperformed recently, even while stocks were strong. If the general stock market declines from here, the underperformance is likely to take an epic form – just as it did in early 2020.This level of underperformance and weakness is truly breathtaking.If miners – in particular, juniors – were able to decline so much without meaningful help from gold and the general stock market, just imagine the carnage they will suffer once this “help” finally arrives.And given the breakout above the neck level of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD Index, it seems like the key trigger to set the wheels in motion is already here.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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S&P 500 Bounces from 50-Day SMA, What is Different?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.07.2021 21:34
The repeating technical pattern in the large-cap index has repeated itself once again. How long can this phenomenon last, and what is different in the underlying market this time?Greetings. I hope this article finds you well and that you are using the strength in the equity markets today and yesterday to shore up your overall long exposure and getting some dry powder available.Usually, I would be feeling like this is the easy part of the $SPX bounce; a quick move lower to the 50-day SMA, then the second up day where it just creeps higher on low volatility. That has been the pattern since the pandemic lows in March 2020.Figure 1 - S&P 500 Index March 5, 2020 - July 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comWe have discussed the 50-day SMA phenomenon at length in previous articles and used them as a basis for entries, so please feel free to peruse them for additional detail.However, this time, I just couldn’t get as enthusiastic about it.Yesterday, in an article for Premium Subscribers, we mentioned the percentage of stocks that are currently trading below their 200-day standard moving averages.Figure 2 - MMTH Index Percentage of Stocks Trading Above 200-Day Moving Average July 3, 2018 - July 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source tradingview.comWe can see above that the percentage of stocks trading above their key 200-day standard moving average peaked back in February. Many stocks dipped below their key 200-day moving average during the selloff earlier on Friday and Monday. However, we do still have this internal market indicator showing weakness.We also have the interest rate conundrum that is currently facing the markets. Please see the July 15th publication for additional color in this area.CPI Data & Interest RatesWe have higher prices across the board for many goods and services. What continues to fuel the demand at higher prices? Direct stimulus and artificially low interest rates are partially to blame for this. When you logically think about this, what will happen when interest rates rise? Will they rise? What about if the Fed begins to taper bond purchases and the market throws a “taper tantrum”?Delta Variant & OlympicsAs the delta variant has been making its way around the newswires for several weeks, markets finally began to take notice last Friday. As the start of the Olympic Games is slated for July 23, 2021 (just 2 days away), there has been some chatter about the Olympic Games being canceled due to the delta variant. Let’s hope the games take place as scheduled.Getting back to the equity markets, you may have noticed that the sectors that have been moving higher in the past several weeks have been limited; and only select names. This lack of broad market participation illustrates the percentage of stocks that are trading above the 200-day moving average. In today’s and yesterday's session, we have more of a broader market participation due to oversold conditions. Small-cap stocks have led the way, as they were a very oversold group heading into Friday’s and Monday’s price action.In a healthy market, we want to see broad market participation with a high percentage of stocks trading above their key 200-day moving averages. I feel like we are close to an inflection point in the broader markets, and there are several risks that skew to the downside, more so than the upside.From 1980 - 2019 ($SPX):July: +0.79%August: -0.15%September: -0.70%The $SPX is up 1.32% in the month of July right now.At a certain point, one would expect these factors to collide and for market participants to begin to view things differently; therefore selling the rip instead of buying the dip.I can’t be the only one.Now, let’s cover the markets we are monitoring for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

The Delta Variant Spreads. Will It Mutate Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.07.2021 14:35
The coronavirus strikes back! It’s bad news for almost everyone and everything… except for merciless gold.So, were you hoping that the epidemic was over? After all, millions of people got vaccinated, and the economy is booming. Restrictions have been generally lifted, the Fed removed the parts related to the pandemic from its monetary policy statement… why bother then?The answer is: Delta. And I’m referring to the Sars-Cov-2 variant that causes Covid-19. As you know, viruses mutate from time to time as they spread and replicate. Delta is one of such mutations. Most mutations are not dangerous or even dumb (they weaken the viruses). But the problem with Delta is that it’s “the fastest and fittest” of all coronavirus variants, as the WHO described it. Just think about Rambo on steroids or a witcher that has just taken all his potions. Oh… Anyway, you got the point.In particular, Delta is much more contagious than the original strain, and is spreading about twice as fast. A person infected with the classic version of the coronavirus can spread it to 2.5 other people, while a person with Delta can infect 3.5-4 other people. Delta might also be more severe and more lethal than the original strain.The good news is that many people have been vaccinated and the vaccines (especially the mRNA-type) protect nicely against Delta. However, the bad news is that many people still haven’t gotten the shots, for many reasons. The tricky part here is that, given the high transmission rate of Delta, we would need 90% or even more people to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity, which is still a song of the future.High transmissibility is the reason why Delta has become the dominant strain in the globe. It also increases the risk of further, potentially even more dangerous, mutations (more transmissions, more chances to evolve into Terminator). In other words, Delta’s fast transmission could reignite the pandemic. As the chart below shows, this is actually already happening.As one can see, Delta reversed the trend of the declining number of new cases, spreading particularly quickly in the United Kingdom. But the U.S. Covid-19 cases also soared, surging 70% last week, while deaths went up 26%.Implications for GoldWhat do rising cases of Delta mean for gold? Well, I would say that Delta is fundamentally positive for gold and could mutate it into a more bullish strain. If the pandemic accelerates, governments may reintroduce some of the sanitary restrictions or even lockdowns. A new wave of the epidemic would also increase the chances of a big infrastructure bill in the US and other fiscal stimuli, while the Fed would likely remain dovish for longer than it would without Delta. So, inflation could intensify even further, while the real interest rates would drop. Therefore, concerned investors would turn to inflation hedges and safe havens such as gold.However, what’s described above is the medium-term effects that Delta would cause if it triggered a new wave of cases and restrictions. In the short run, however, gold may decline, as worried investors would sell the assets and turn to the US dollar. This is what we saw in March 2020 but also on Monday (July 19, 2021). As the chart below shows, the London price of gold has declined, as the stronger greenback counterweighted the decline in the equities (Dow plunged more than 2%) and bond yields.Furthermore, the next Great Lockdown is unlikely. Even if the government reintroduces some restrictions, their economic impact will be much smaller than during the earlier waves, as economies have adapted to operating under the epidemiological regime. Importantly, a new wave would be mainly limited to unvaccinated people, which would reduce the burden of health care systems and chances of hard lockdowns.However, Monday’s equity selloff suggests a change in the market narrative. Investors have possibly realized that they had too optimistic expectations – economic growth may actually be slower than they thought. They have priced in a very strong recovery, which doesn’t have to materialize if a new pandemic wave hits the economy. Slower growth plus high inflation equals stagflation, gold’s favorite environment.Having said that, it may take a while until gold rallies, as the end of reflation trade may also imply that some investors will sell commodities, including, to some extent, gold. Also, please note that the optimism and gains have quickly returned to the stock market, so the economic impact of Delta may be limited.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities

Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.07.2021 07:04
Equities traded quietly higher in Thursday's NY session. Simultaneously, bonds were bid rather firmly, sending interest rates even lower. What is going on beneath the surface?Greetings. I hope this article finds you and yours well. Today, we are taking a look at some additional market indicators and internals to get an unbiased perspective on things.First, I want to preface things by mentioning that I am not suggesting that I am fully bearish on the S&P 500 or stocks right now. However, I am taking more of a cautious stance at the moment.Figure 1 - S&P 500 Index April 15, 2021 - July 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comNothing new to see here. Just another pedestrian pullback to the 50-day SMA and a bounce back. This pattern has repeated itself several times since the pandemic lows in the $SPX. It won't repeat itself forever - that would be too easy.Since it is earnings season, let’s talk earnings multiples.Feeling bullish? It can be challenging to get excited about an $SPX at 4400 with an estimated 46.40 P/E ratio (trailing twelve months). We are in the middle of earnings season, so we will have a clearer figure soon.Figure 2 - S&P 500 PE Ratio 1870 - July 22, 2021. Source multpl.comStocks are not cheap by any measure, folks. However, with easy monetary policy and low rates, this is to be expected. What could be the catalyst to derail this freight train?How about the Dow Transports? This index used to be talked about much more frequently and is followed closely by students of Dow Theory. We just don’t hear much analysis about it on Fox Business, CNBC, or Bloomberg these days.The Dow Transports (Dow Jones Transportation Average) $TRAN is an index comprised of 20 companies.Here are the index components and weighting as of December 2020:Alaska Air Group, Inc. 2.55%American Airlines Group Inc. 0.76%Avis Budget Group, Inc. 1.80%C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. 4.61%CSX Corporation 4.39%Delta Air Lines, Inc. 1.94%Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. 4.61%FedEx Corporation 13.10%J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. 6.70%JetBlue Airways Corporation 0.70%Kansas City Southern 9.73%Kirby Corporation 2.51%Landstar System, Inc. 6.60%Matson, Inc. 2.79%Norfolk Southern Corporation 11.42%Ryder System, Inc. 3.12%Southwest Airlines Co. 2.26%Union Pacific Corporation 9.91%United Airlines Holdings, Inc. 2.11%United Parcel Service, Inc. 8.39%Figure 3- Dow Jones Transportation Index January 4, 2021 - July 21, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comHere, and in contrast to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we can see that the Transports topped back on May 10, 2021. Proponents of Dow Theory would argue that this creates a lack of confirmation and that the subsequent highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are not valid due to this lack of confirmation.What could be the reason for the stall in the Transports? Input Costs? While fuel costs have risen, what about the rise in retail spending? Is the stimulus-powered consumer pocket not enough to counterbalance the rising input costs?If input costs are the reason for the stalling, what about the other companies that rely on raw materials to make their products? Recent inflationary data has not affected these companies' stock prices yet (for the most part).What if the Fed eases off the gas pedal?While it is very difficult (if not impossible) to pick market tops (and I don't advocate trying to do that), it is wise to look at certain market indicators to get an understanding of what is going on beneath the surface.It is easy to look at the chart of the $SPX and see that it is moving higher, from the bottom left-hand corner of the chart to the top right-hand corner. However, that does not tell the whole story of what is happening in the US equity markets.We will be monitoring the above and previously mentioned market internals and indicators for more clues in the coming days, weeks, and months. I think it is critical to be aware of metrics such as the above as the broader indices trade near all-time highs.Now, let’s cover the markets we are monitoring for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Silver, the exception

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.07.2021 11:28
We highly advocate to never throw good money after bad money and only use Anti-Martingale strategies. However, the rare situation that Silver finds itself in right this moment allows for adding paper plays to your physical silver holdings. The reasons are as following: While the spot price dipped below US$25, physical acquisition prices held relatively steady. This stretch between spot and actual Silver purchase prices shows an imbalance that works like a rubber band effect. As such, we would even be as confident to say this is still a physical acquisition of silver opportunity.First and foremost, recent silver price drops shouldn’t cause you to sell your physical holding. Secondly, it is worth considering taking on small position-sized spot silver trades to leverage one’s physical holdings.Fundamentally thinking: Has anything changed?Are supply chain discrepancies fixed?Is the economy on solid grounds?Has money printing stopped, as the FED Balance sheet hits a new all-time high?FED balance sheet as of July 21st, 2021. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve (US central bank) has hit another all-time high as FED president Jerome Powell keeps the printing press rumbling despite spiraling inflation. Just last week alone, total assets rose by another US$39billion to US$8,240.5billion. This is equal to around 37% of US’s GDP.Do not be deterred by temporary price imbalances, but look at the larger picture and the necessity of some wealth preservation insurance.Gold/Silver-Ratio in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Stretched and ready to snap back:Gold/Silver-Ratio, daily chart as of July 22nd, 2021.It isn’t only the “stretch play” between spot and actual physical silver acquisition price that is an edge on silver entries right now. The Gold/Silver-ratio also has had a recent run-up in price, where Silver eventually will have to catch up to its big brother Gold. The daily chart above shows how the “stretch” between the two precious metals rose from a level of 62 to 73 over the last six months. An imbalance extreme that will have to return to its mean (and beyond) at some point.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver, the exception, Buying zone opportunity:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 22nd, 2021.If you give the up-sloping green buying channel a look at the weekly chart above, you will find that each time price penetrated this zone, a sturdy leg up followed. You will find a histogram of fractal volume analysis to the right of the chart. It illustrates extended bars, meaning good support, at price levels between US$24 and US$25. You can also find an indicator divergence on the “turbo” (thin yellow line) on the Commodity Channel Index oscillator (indicator below the volume bars).With the round number of US$25 showing good previous support for price reversals, we are confident in a longer-term play to be engaged at these levels. As contrarians, we take entries at the lower part of this up sloping bull flag. Consequently, possibilities open up to finance trades at higher levels. In addition, we are already positioned if prices break through the upper resistance line (red horizontal line).  Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Good timing for risk reduction:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 22nd, 2021.The daily chart provides the opportunity to fine-tune one’s entry. Consequently, we stack our odds one more time and reduce risk. Silver prices already reversed from US$24.80 levels to the upside, and we posted real-time entries for this trade in our free Telegram channel. We use our quad exit strategy to reduce/eliminate risk early on.A closer look at the chart above shows that this first attempt might not be successful right away for follow-through. We have strong resistance above us (red horizontal box). In addition, the yellow line represents the simple 200-moving average. Probably the most observed moving average, and as such significant in technical analysis.Consequently, we expect prices to decline from there and providing a low-risk double bottom entry near the US$25 levels. This would allow the reader ample time to compare their findings. Compare your charts and trading system with our approach to plan a possible trade setup. We are fully transparent and as such, feel free to ask questions in our free Telegram channel.Silver, the exception:Things that are hard to do are most of the time the right actions in trading. Doubling up at a time when the hard thing was to honor your stop does not reduce your cost average. Even though, your broker makes it sound so alluring, instead it increases your risk massively. And yet, this 100-year cycle has dealt us right now an unusual card. Times require us to pay extra attention to making the right moves not to get train wrecked.The stern action right now is to be a contrarian early enough to hold cards or, better said, physical Silver before it will be unattainable. This allows for exceptional moves, but not by adding more risk. Instead, by identifying unusual opportunities in alignment with timing and not insisting on old paradigms. There is no shame in easing into this with prudence and small position size. Ignoring exceptional circumstances and procrastinating might become a costly path of action. We invite you to our free Telegram channel to ask questions of any kind to form a self-directed opinion to take care of your financial future actively.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 23rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.07.2021 12:44
The current high inflation could theoretically transform into hyperinflation, disinflation, stagflation, or deflation. What does each mean for gold?Inflation, inflation, inflation. We all know that prices have surged recently. And we all know that high inflation is likely to stay with us for a while, even if we assume that the CPI annual rate has already peaked, which is not so obvious. But let’s look beyond the nearest horizon and think about what lies ahead after months of high inflation, and what consequences it could have for the gold market.From the logical point of view, there are three options. Inflation rates could accelerate further, leading to hyperinflation in an extreme case. They could remain more or less the same, resulting possibly in stagflation when the pace of GDP growth decelerates. And, finally, the rates of annual changes in the CPI could slow down, implying disinflation, or they could even become negative – in this scenario, we would enter the world of deflation. So, which of these “flations” awaits us?Although some commentators scare us with the specter of hyperinflation, I would reject this variant. Surely, the inflation rate at 5% is relatively high, but it’s not even close to 50%, which is an accepted hyperinflation threshold. We also don’t see people getting rid of depreciating money as quickly as possible – instead, the demand for money has been rising recently (or, in other words, the velocity of money has been decreasing).It’s also worth remembering that hyperinflation usually occurs when fiscal deficits are financed by money creation, especially when the government cannot raise funds through borrowing or taxes, for example because of a war or other sociopolitical convulsions. Sure, the budget deficits are partially monetized, but we are far from the situation in which the US government would be unable to collect taxes or find lenders ready to buy its bonds. Hence, gold bugs counting on hyperinflation may be disappointed – but I doubt that they would really want to live during the collapse of the monetary system.The opposite scenario, i.e., deflation, is also unlikely. To be clear, asset price deflation is possible if some of the asset bubbles burst, but the absolute declines in the consumer prices, similar to those observed during the Great Depression, or even the Great Recession, are not very probable. The broad money supply is still increasing rapidly, the fiscal policy remains easy as never, and the Fed remains ultra-dovish and ready to intervene to prevent deflation. For deflation to happen, we would need to have the next global financial crisis which would severely hit the aggregate demand and oil prices.Although there are significant vulnerabilities in the financial sector, it’s definitely too early to talk about significant deflation risks on the horizon. As with hyperinflation, this is bad news for gold, as the yellow metal performs well during the deflationary crises (although at the beginning, people usually collect cash, disposing of almost all assets).So, we are left with two options. Inflation will either diminish to its previous levels (maybe to slightly higher readings than before the pandemic), and we will return more or less to the Goldilocks economy, or inflation will stay relatively high (although it may subside a bit), while the economic growth will slow down significantly (and more than inflation). It goes without saying that the latter option would be much better for gold than the former one, as gold doesn’t like periods of decelerating inflation rates and of a decent pace of economic growth (remember 1980 and the 1990s?). So, could gold investors reasonably ask whether we will experience disinflation or stagflation?Well, the Fed believes that the current high inflation readings will prove to be temporary and we will return to the pre-epidemic era of low inflation. But you can’t step in the same river twice, and you can’t step in the same economy twice. You can’t undo all the monetary and fiscal stimulus nor the surge in the broad money supply and the public debt (see the chart below).So, the pre-pandemic low inflation readings are not set in stone. And the impact of some deflationary forces could be exaggerated by the central bankers and the pundits – for example, the recent ECB research shows that “the disinflationary role of globalization has been economically small”.Hence, I worry about stagflation. And I’m not alone. The results of the latest biannual survey of the chief U.S. economists from 27 financial institutions for the U.S. Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association also highlight the risks of high inflation and stagnation. They reveal that 87% of respondents consider “stagflation, as opposed to hyperinflation or deflation, as the bigger risk to the economy.”Actually, the GDP growth is commonly projected to slow down significantly next year. For example, according to the recent Fed’s dot-plot, the pace of the economic growth will decline from 7% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2022. It’s still fast, but less than half of this year’s growth. And it’s likely to be slower, as the FOMC members tend to be overly optimistic.The stagflation scenario could be positive for gold, as the yellow metal likes the combination of sluggish (or even negative) growth and high inflation. Indeed, gold shined in the 1970s, the era of The Great Stagflation. Of course, there are important differences between then and now, but the economic laws are immutable: the mix of easy fiscal policy and monetary policy superimposed on economic reopening is a recipe for overheating and, ultimately, stagflation.However, so far, the markets have bet on transitory inflation. Moreover, they are focused on fast economic expansion and the Fed’s hawkish signals. But we could see more uncertainty later this year when higher interest rates and inflation hamper the economic activity. In that case, gold could get back on track.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – S&P 500 Resumes Rally

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 26.07.2021 09:56
SPX 500 breaks to new highThe S&P 500 rose back to its previous high on strong corporate earnings.The index has met strong bids around 4250, the top range of the late June consolidation. The subsequent surge gave no room for sellers to get a foothold.An overbought RSI may prompt intraday traders to take profit at the peak (4392). 4380 has been established as fresh support where buyers could be lurking around. Further below, 4350 may provide another layer of support.On the upside, a bullish breakout would extend the rally towards 4440.USDCAD hovers above supportThe Canadian dollar stays muted despite a slight improvement in retail sales in May. The greenback has met stiff selling pressure near February’s high (1.2800).The sharp drop is likely due to profit-taking after a rally above the resistance of 1.2650 from the daily chart. If longs succeed in holding 1.2500, the sentiment would remain bullish. Failing that, the pair may retreat to 1.2300.The RSI is rising back to the neutrality area, a sign of buying interest in the demand area. 1.2730 would be the immediate resistance ahead.EURGBP bounces off demand zoneThe pound remains under pressure after lackluster retail sales ex-fuel in June. The pair’s advance beyond 0.8610 has forced sellers to cover their positions.The price has dropped back to the demand zone at 0.8550 for accumulation.The RSI has recovered back to the neutral area. A rally above 0.8585 would confirm the bullish bias and rekindle buyers’ enthusiasm.0.8610 is the next resistance, then a break above 0.8660 may trigger a runaway rally. On the downside, 0.8510 is still key support.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

USDX Defends Its Growth Thesis - Will It Pass With Honors?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.07.2021 16:10
The USDX rose above its inverse H&S pattern neckline. After months-long preparation, is it ready to take its final test… and shine?The USD Index (USDX)With investors putting the USD Index through a rigorous exam last week (ending Jul. 23), months of study helped the greenback pass the test with flying colors. Case in point: with the USD Index rising above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern, the head implies a medium-term target of roughly 98. On top of that, with the USD Index’s textbook validation adding to the bullish momentum last week – with the greenback verifying its recent breakout and responding with further strength – the U.S. dollar is likely to graduate with honors in the coming months.What’s more, the bullish breakout was further validated when the USD Index closed the week above the neck level of its H&S pattern, and it’s difficult to imagine a more sanguine sign for the U.S. dollar. Thus, with the greenback poised to move sharply higher in the coming weeks, gold, silver and mining stocks are likely to head in the opposite direction.In addition, the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun. To explain, major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year, and with the dollar’s bullish IQ often rising with the temperature, gold, silver and mining stocks will likely feel the heat over the medium term.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that summertime surges have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and double bottoms often signal the end of major declines or ignite significant rallies. For example, in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights. In addition, back in 2008, U.S. equities’ plight added even more wind to the USD Index’s sails. And if the general stock market suffers another profound decline (along with gold miners and silver), a sharp re-rating of the USDX is likely in the cards.Please see below (quick reminder: you can click on the chart to enlarge it):On top of that, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the smart money is already backing the greenback.Please see below:As further evidence, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows that non-commercial (speculative) futures traders have increased their long exposure to the U.S. dollar (the light blue line below). More importantly, though, with longs bouncing off a roughly 10-year low and the current positioning still well below the highs set in previous years, the U.S. dollar still has plenty of room to run.Source: COTFinally, as the polar opposite of the USD Index, the Euro Index’s recent symmetrical decline mirrors the drawdown that we witnessed in mid-2020. And while the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern still requires further verification, a continuation of the trend could usher the index back to the June 2020 lows or even lower. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index.In addition, when the Euro Index reached the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern in early April 2021, late September 2020, and late October 2020, a fierce rally ensued. However, this time around, the corrective upswing has been extremely weak. As a result, with lower highs and lower lows plaguing the Euro Index in recent weeks, it’s likely only a matter of time before the neckline officially breaks.Please see below:Even more relevant, the completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign. That’s another point for the bearish price prediction for gold.The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, the USD Index will likely emerge victorious in this epic battle of wits. Moreover, with the GDXJ ETF (our short position) avoiding mirroring gold’s recent strength, it seems that when the USDX finally does rally profoundly, junior mining stocks will fall substantially. However, following a profound climax, gold, silver and mining stocks will likely resume their secular uptrends.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 27.07.2021 10:56
Once in a high likely entry zone, like the daily sideways channel on Bitcoin over the last weeks, the questions arise:Will prices break higher or lower?If to buy, when and where to buy?How much should I risk?BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit, What has changed since last week?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021.The daily chart above shows what has changed since last week’s chartbook release.A week ago, we wrote: “In the daily chart above, you can see a possible turning point in the making. We would not be surprised if prices penetrate the range violently to quickly reverse, creating a wick, as it has in the past (white circles).”A good plan was created, and the markets matched our expectations. But how were we able to end up with six long positions that all produced already booked partial profits? Let us explore the answers to the three questions asked earlier.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Will prices break higher or lower?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021.Answer to question 1: No one knows for sure in which direction a channel breaks, but one way to stack the odds in your favor is trading across multiple time frames. If you get signals within a short period for monthly, weekly, daily (yearly) time frames, the likelihood for a reversal just got stacked in your favor.We got a yearly signal entry on July 18th and a weekly entry signal on July 19th. A daily entry on July 20th followed. On July 21st, we were filled on yet another weekly and a monthly setup long for Bitcoin. And the next day, on July 22nd, we had yet another daily long signal.This entry frequency across all time frames in a very short time gave us confidence that the turning point had a high probability, and indeed, prices turned. We already were able to take early profits through our quad exit strategy to eliminate risk and book partial profits (all entries and exits were posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel).So, in short, you do not have to worry if you employ various systems for sideways markets and trending markets and trade all time frames; the worry gets taken off your shoulder by a self-regulatory system.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, If to buy when and where to buy?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021. cAnswer to question 2: Take every low-risk entry point as you would typically, even though you feel uncomfortable with them coming in such a short period of time. You will need a quad exit strategy or a similar exit strategy to reduce risk quickly.We posted about two dozen of these more significant turning points live in our Telegram channel over the last 3.5 years with a hit rate above eighty percent. No need for greed, though. Simply exit your targets, as usual, to mitigate risk, as we have.The chart above shows the actual values of our entries and exits so far. We touched the upper bound of the channel and have now still five units exposed to the market. That is more than one full trade size-wise, with the advantage now that these remaining parts of the trades are psychologically untainted and easy to let ride further should a true trend continuation on the larger time frames unfold.Two more points are noteworthy. All entries came within less than a week. And more than half of the total position size gets cashed in on the first burst up within a day. It is this low-risk exposure and risk elimination in a brief period of time that we are after. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, How much should I risk?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021.Answer to question 3: Assume a maximum of ten trades simultaneously, which reduces your typical 2% maximum risk per trade to 0.2% per trade on total investment capital. The idea here is not to leverage or pyramid, but to increase odds and minimize risk for a more significant turning point.This means you do not want to have a more extensive total exposure at any time of 2% of your total investment capital of correlated trades. Why? A 27% loss is about the breaking point of systems where you can still recover from a loss. Remember, when you lose 50% on a position, you now need to make a 100% gain to be at break even. You do not want to mess with this principle being stacked against you. There is a near 100% certainty of 13 losses in a row in a thousand sample size. Take these times two percent, and you find the logic of why the “maximum 2% rule” is sensible.Looking at the chart above, you can see why this aggressive entry behavior is almost necessary with Bitcoin. Once in motion, Bitcoin is hard to stop and moves without a breath through the entire range within a week. Later entries are higher-risk trades.While Bitcoin typically retraces quite strongly, we are confident that we might see a second leg coming shortly. We do not trail stops at this time any further than towards break-even entry levels.Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit:It is tough to step up to the plate and that with size, after a more extended period of drought of trades. And yet exactly this is one of the best ways to make money!It requires confidence, a lot of focus, discipline, and a clear, refined rule set. In the case of the above-described scenario, it is the self-regulating aspect of the trading system by trading through various time frames to identify a high likely turning point. While each trade is low risk, the sum of transactions and, more importantly, the tight time interval of occurrence of entries guides towards a higher likely probability of prices to move through a reversal phase. It is imperative to back and forward test one’s systems if it is in alliance with this principle. We have found that in more cases than not, it is and, as such, encourage you to have a look if our methodology might fit your trading system as well.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

China Soft Ahead of Fed, Big Tech Earnings. Transports Lower

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.07.2021 21:16
Markets are lower in afternoon trading in New York today. China fears have created uncertainty, and why we looked to short the Transports yesterday.It seems like rough markets have a way of originating in China.Thinking back to 2007, I remember watching the China markets meltdown. This process began well ahead of the US financial crisis of 2008.Looking back at markets that you have lived and traded through, you amass a mental library of history and look to learn from it. Before 2007, I spent years as a Real Estate Agent and remember the days of people being approved for home purchases on variable ARMs and very low-income requirements. You just knew the music would have to stop at some point as banks loaded up subprime borrowers with debt that logic would dictate as unpayable.The China markets started to crack ahead of the US markets back then.Figure 1 - Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index March 24, 2007 - May 2, 2008, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comI do remember watching this market at the time. Other China indices fared even worse. Around this time, the $SPX experienced a pullback too, but one of a much lesser magnitude.Figure 2 - S&P 500 Index August 1, 2007 - December 7, 2007 Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comAs we can see, the $SPX also pulled back around this time, but in more of a pedestrian manner, with a 5.4% pullback over an 11 day period versus 10.8% for China around the same time period.It is important to note that the $SPX had pulled back prior to this time and rebounded to all-time highs. I am mentioning all of this as markets have memories and accelerated moves in China catch my attention. Let’s also mention the obvious here: the Covid meltdown in Feb - March 2020.As China is grabbing all of the headlines today, let’s see how the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite has fared yesterday and today.Figure 3 - Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index March 17, 2021 - July 27, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comYes, the Shanghai Composite is lower over the last two days. However, the sky isn’t falling, at least not yet. It is lower by 2.9% or so over the past two sessions. Note the support that was found around its 200-day moving average.What All of This Means for UsI believe it is smart to avoid getting too caught up in the daily headlines, for the most part. Price and divergences can tell better stories than any news headlines, which often come out much too late.This is the reason that it made sense to target the Transports to the downside yesterday. We had a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with clear divergence from the direction of the broader markets since May 1st. In case you missed it, you can read about the analysis of the Transports in the July 23rd publication and in yesterday’s July 26th publication.As we targeted the short side of the IYT yesterday afternoon around $258.00, let’s see how the transports are faring in today’s market down day.Figure 4 - iShares Transportation Average ETF March 1, 2021 - July 27, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThe IYT is lower by 2.54% as of the time of this writing. As discussed, the Transports were already trading lower versus the broader indices.Right now, we see the RSI(14) at 40 and daily MACD crossover brewing to the downside with the fast line crossing the slow line.We will hear from the Fed tomorrow.The FOMC statement and subsequent press conference is slated for tomorrow. Those kinds of days can be tough to trade, and depending on the Fed’s tone, anything could happen.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's look cover some potential take profit levels and strategies in IYT, and recap the other markets that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Catalyst Breakout

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 28.07.2021 09:47
XAUUSD seeks supportGold bounces back as the US dollar retreats ahead of the Fed meeting later today.The price has been treading water above 1790 as the bulls struggle to save the rebound. The dip below the psychological level of 1800 has shaken out weak hands.The current consolidation is a sign of indecision ahead of a catalyst-driven breakout. 1824 is a major hurdle and its breach would heighten momentum and resume the stalled rally.Below the support, the bears may push gold towards 1755 and threaten the rebound.AUDUSD consolidates post-breakoutThe Australian dollar inched higher, supported by upbeat CPI, in Q2. Though price action struggles to bounce back after it broke below 0.7410, a support from the previous timid rebound.Sentiment has grown increasingly bearish and sellers are eager to offer at higher prices. 0.7440 has turned from a demand into a supply zone.If buyers fail to push above this threshold, 0.7290 would be the path of least resistance. A bearish breakout could trigger a new round of sell-off to last November’s lows around 0.7130.USOIL tests fresh supportOil prices continue to recoup previous losses as traders bet on tightening supply.WTI’s swift recovery above 71.10 is an encouraging sign that buyers are still hanging around. Following the breakout, 70.10 has established itself as a fresh support.The RSI has dropped back to the neutrality area and the bulls may have the last word if the support holds tight. Otherwise, price action could be seeing 66.00 sooner than expected.On the upside, 74.70 is the key resistance to clear before the bullish trend could carry on.
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead?

USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.07.2021 14:54
The USDX reportedly invalidated its bullish H&S pattern yesterday, but did it actually do so? The line based on daily closing prices says otherwise.Yesterday’s (Jul. 27) supposedly big news was the breakdown below the neck level of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD Index. Invalidations of breakouts are bearish, and what’s bearish for the USDX is usually bullish for gold, silver, and mining stocks. So, what happened? And what didn’t happen?What happened was that the USD Index moved a bit below the declining neckline based on the previous intraday highs.What didn’t happen was the move below the declining neckline based on the previous highs in terms of daily closing prices (dashed line).So, was the breakout really invalidated? Not necessarily, especially that the USDX is moving back up in today’s pre-market trading (at least at the moment of writing these words).Moreover, while the USD Index moved lower yesterday, gold refused to rally.To be precise, it did move higher, but only by $0.60, so it generally ignored the USD’s movement.Consequently, yesterday’s session might have seemed to be a game-changer at first sight, but it seems much more likely that it wasn’t one. In my view, yesterday’s price movement was the continuation of the back-and-forth trading that’s analogous to what we saw in the first half of June. Gold was moving back and forth in a boring manner then too. The boredom was over quite quickly and a big short-term slide followed – I think the same is likely to happen shortly.Gold Miners’ AidMining stocks’ performance also supports this scenario.If it was the beginning of another sizable move higher in the PMs and miners, the latter would be likely to show strength before gold. And that’s not taking place.Senior gold miners were practically flat yesterday, just as gold was – that is, only slightly higher. On the other hand, junior gold miners ended the session slightly lower – very close to their previous 2021 lows.Junior miners (the GDXJ ETF) haven’t invalidated the breakdown below the neck level of the bearish head and shoulders formation. Consequently, the very bearish implications of the breakdown remain intact.All in all, the precious metals sector seems poised for another move lower, quite likely to the previous yearly lows in the case of gold and well below the previous 2021 lows in the case of the mining stocks. Yesterday’s decline in the USD index doesn’t change that. To clarify, the above-mentioned targets will most likely be just interim stops within an even bigger decline that will get us to the ultimate buying opportunity for the PMs and miners later this year.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Fed Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.07.2021 04:22
It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.No surprises here.However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.First, let’s take a look at the daily chart of the $DXY:Figure 1 - US Dollar Index November 1, 2020 - July 28, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comAs we know, the US Dollar has been in a longer-term downtrend. The repeating pattern has been lower daily highs. Short the dollar was a heavily crowded trade recently that we examined and discussed. After reaching oversold conditions, a quick bounce occurred. However, with no rush to raise interest rates and Fed open market operations continuing, the $DXY could try the downside once again. This downward move could impact the prices of commodities even further to the upside. There is a key Fibonacci level that was not quite reached in the index on its last downside attempt (near $88.41).Figure 2 - US Dollar Index July 28, 2021 - July 28, 2021, 1-minute Candles Source stooq.comI find value in this type of analysis; when you can take a daily/longer-term trend/outlook and then take an intraday peek on a day such as a Fed day. I would have guessed that the market would be factoring in further inflation already. However, based on the $DXY behavior intraday, it appears that the US Dollar may want to get set to go and retest the recent low near $89.50.GDP Data, Core PCEOn Thursday morning, we are getting GDP (q/q), and on Friday morning we will get the Core PCE data. GDP can be a market mover, and the Fed does like to monitor the PCE data for inflation signals.As the US Dollar may weaken some, a place to park some cash could be in the UDN - Invesco DB US Index Bearish ETF. I wouldn’t expect any home runs here; the ETF is unleveraged, but a 2 - 3% pop could be in the cards here if the $DXY wants to test its recent lows.Figure 3 - Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund - September 4, 2020 - July 28, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comUDN is doing its job rather well and is inversely tracking the US Dollar Index at an efficient rate. Other traders could use the $DXY product on ICE if their accounts are enabled for it. ICE passes through the monthly fee for its products to retail traders (somewhere in the neighborhood of $110 per month) to trade these products and receive quotes.So, using UDN can give traders some pure exposure to a dollar decline. We will be eyeballing the $21.48 - $21.64 levels as potential TP targets for now. Levels and sentiment can change quickly, so stay tuned!Now, for our premium subscribers, let's review the other markets that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Behavior of Inflation and Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.07.2021 19:15
The bond yields dropped despite surging inflation. It’s not a usual thing on the market, so we have to ask: what does it mean for gold?The markets hide many mysteries. One of them is the recent slide in the long-term bond yields. As the chart below shows, both the nominal interest rates and the real interest rates have been in a downside trend since March (with a short-lived rebound in June). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield reached almost 1.75% at the end of March, and by July it decreased to about 1.25%, while the inflation-adjusted yield dropped from -0.63% to about -1%.What’s intriguing, this drop happened despite the surge in inflation. As you can see in the chart below, the seasonally adjusted annual CPI inflation rate surged to 5.3% in June, the highest level since the Great Recession. Even as inflation soared, the bond yields declined.Why is that? Are bond traders blind? Don’t they see that the real interest rates are deeply negative? Indeed, the TIPS yields are the lowest in the history of the series (which began in 2003), while the difference between the nominal 10-year Treasury yields and the CPI annual rates is the lowest since June 1980, as the chart below shows.The pundits say that the decline in the bond yields suggests that inflation will only be temporary and there is nothing to worry about. This is what the central bankers repeat and what investors believe. However, history teaches us that the bond market often lags behind inflation, allowing the real interest rates to plunge. This happened, for example, in the 1970s (see the chart above), when the bond market was clearly surprised by stagflation.Another issue here is that the central banks heavily influence the bond markets through manipulation of interest rates and quantitative easing, preventing them from properly reacting to inflation. Actually, some analysts say that the bond market is the most manipulated market in the world. So, it doesn’t have to predict inflation properly.Implications for GoldWhat does the divergence between the bond yields and inflation imply for gold? Well, as an economist, I’m tempted to say “it depends”. You see, if inflation is really temporary, it will start declining later this year, making the real interest rates rise. In that case, gold would suffer (unless inflation decreases together with the pace of economic growth).It might also be the case that the divergence will narrow as a result of the increase in the nominal interest rates. Such a move would boost the real interest rates and create downward pressure on gold.However, if inflation turns out to be more persistent than expected, investors will fear an inflation tail risk, and they will be more eager to buy gold as an inflation hedge. As I’ve explained, the decline in the bond yields doesn’t have to mean low inflation expectations. It may also indicate expectations of slower economic growth. Combined with high inflation, it would imply stagflation, a pleasant environment for gold.Another bullish argument for gold is the observation that the price of gold has recently lagged the drop in the real interest rates, as the chart below shows. So, it might be somewhat undervalued from the fundamental point of view.However, given the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and the record low level of real interest rates, I would bet that the above-mentioned rates will increase later this year, which should send gold prices lower. But if they rise too much, it could make the markets worry about excessive indebtedness and release some recessionary forces. Then, the current reflation could transform into stagflation, making gold shine. So, gold could decline before it rallies again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Sees Few Bids

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 30.07.2021 09:00
USDJPY tests key supportThe Japanese yen finds support as June’s unemployment rate fell below 3%.A bearish MA cross on the daily chart is likely to cloud buyers’ mood. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near 110.60.The FOMC whipsaw was a sign that sellers still retain control since the downturn started earlier this month. 109.40 is a key support and its breach would invalidate last week’s rebound. Sellers would then be eager to push below 109.00.On the upside, a bounce will need to clear 110.20 to make the mood turn around.USDCHF in a deeper correctionThe US dollar tumbled as US GDP growth in Q2 came out below market expectation.The breakout below 0.9120 was a confirmation that the bears have gained the upper hand following a three-week-long consolidation. Bearish sentiment accrued as momentum traders jumped in aggressively.The price is heading towards the psychological level of 0.9000, right above the critical support (0.8930) on the daily chart.An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound which is likely to be capped by 0.9165.US 30 breaks to new highsThe Dow Jones index found support from the prospect of continuous stimulus in the US.The index consolidated its gains after it rallied above the peak at 35100. 34800 is a fresh support as buyers have a stake in after the breakout confirmation.US indices lately have been exhibiting a volatility pattern in which a sharp drop is followed by strong bidding.While sentiment remains generally positive, a deeper pullback here may test 34500. As the rally resumes, 35500 would be the next target.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Be Ready to Sell AUD

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 30.07.2021 16:03
What is happening?The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a meeting on August 3. Analysts believe the bank may increase its quantitative easing program, while other banks are lowering their bond buys or discussing this decision.Why?Australia is poorly coping with the new Covid-19 wave. Sydney's current lockdown is expected to end on August 28 and there are some rumors that it might be extended. Five weeks of lockdown haven’t helped – infections continue to spread.What to expect?Westpac, an Australian bank, claimed that the RBA may lift the purchase pace from 5 billion Australian dollars to 6 billion. If the bank increases asset purchases, it may surprise the markets and send the AUD down.The AUD has already weakened. It has dropped against all major peers in July! Just look at the chart.ForecastAUD/USD is forecasted at 0.73 at the end of 2021 by Wells Fargo, 0.74 by the end of March 2022, 0.75 by the end of June 2022, and 0.76 by the end of September.Tech tipsAUD/USD is moving inside the descending channel. However, it has been stuck in a range between 0.7340 and 0.7400 since July 21. It’s touching the upper trend line now, therefore the pair is likely to reverse down. If it drops below the 0.7340 support level, it may fall to the low of July 20 at 0.7300. Resistance levels are high of July 29 at 0.7400 and the next round number of 0.7450.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold, USDX: Did Powell Spoil the Party?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.07.2021 16:05
The party was just gathering steam, and then… Powell entered, the ultimate spoilsport, making the Fed dovish again. How long till he gets kicked off?The War on DebtWith Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), struggling to adequately define “transitory” during his press conference on Jul. 28, the market narrative has shifted from ‘hawkish FED’ to ‘dovish FED.’ And with the U.S. dollar bearing the brunt of investors’ wrath, the ‘all-clear’ sign flashed in front of the PMs. However, with post-FED rallies mainstays in the PMs’ historical record, the recent euphoria is much more semblance than substance. Thus, while Powell’s persistent patience elicits fears of financial repression, today’s economic environment lacks many of the qualities that made the gambit viable in the past.To explain, financial repression includes measures such as direct government financing (the FED prints money and lends it directly to the U.S. Treasury), interest rate caps (yield curve control) and extensive oversight of commercial banks (reserve requirements, controlling the flow of credit). In a nutshell: governments use the strategy to keep interest rates low and ensure that they can finance their debt. And with the U.S. federal debt as a percentage of GDP currently at 128% (updated on Jul. 29), some argue that’s exactly what’s happening. Moreover, with the U.S. 10-Year real yield hitting an all-time low of -1.15% on Jul. 28, is the FED simply turning back the clock to the 1940s?To explain, during World War Two, surging inflation helped the U.S. government ‘inflate away’ its debt. Think of it like this: if an individual borrows $100 at a 2% interest rate and repays the balance in full after one year, the total outlay is $102. However, if inflation is running at 4% (negative real yield), putting that money to work should result in an asset that’s worth $104 by the end of the year. As a result, the individual nets $2 (104 – 102) due to the inflation rate exceeding the nominal interest rate. And as it relates to the present situation, if the FED keeps real yields negative, then asset price inflation and economic growth should outpace nominal interest rates and allow the U.S. government to ‘inflate away’ its debt.However, the strategy is not without fault. For one, financial repression occurs at the expense of bondholders. And with pension funds still required to meet the guaranteed outlays for retirees, suppressing bond yields hampers their ability to match assets and liabilities without incurring more risk.More importantly, though, the FED doesn’t control the long end of the U.S. yield curve. For one, the FED owns roughly 23% of the U.S. Treasury market, and it has a monopoly on confidence, not long-term interest rates. Second, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has dropped because investors fear that the Delta variant and/or the FED’s forthcoming taper will depress the U.S. economy. And eager to front-run the potential outcome, bond investors have positioned for slower growth, lower inflation, and, eventually, a reenactment of the FED cutting interest rates.For context, even Powell himself admitted on Jul. 28 that the decline has caught him off-guard:Source: BloombergLikewise, following WW2, the U.S. government implemented structural reforms that are not present today. For example, prudent fiscal policy emerged in the late 1940s, with the government reducing spending and prioritizing debt reduction. In stark contrast, today’s U.S. government is already finalizing an infrastructure package and the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is still growing. For context, a deficit occurs when the governments’ outlays (expenditures) exceed its tax receipts (revenues).Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the U.S. federal surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP. If you focus on the period from 1943 to 1950, you can see that after the deficit peaked in 1943, reduced spending and strong GDP growth allowed the green line to move sharply higher. Conversely, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that current spending still outpaces GDP growth (green line moving lower), and stoking inflation is unlikely to solve the problem.U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Decouples… By a LotCircling back to the bond market, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield currently trades at an all-time low relative to realized inflation.Please see below:To explain, the scatterplot above depicts the relationship between the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (available data dates back to 1967). For context, the headline CPI is plotted on the horizontal axis, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is plotted on the vertical axis. If you analyze the dot labeled “Current Reading,” you can see that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has never been lower when the headline CPI has risen by 5% or more year-over-year (YoY). In fact, even if the headline CPI declined to the FED’s 2% YoY target, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield at 1.27% would still be the lowest relative reading of all time.However, it’s important to remember that different paths can still lead to the same destination. For example, if inflation turns out to be a paper tiger, a profound decline in inflation expectations will have the same negative impact on the PMs as a sharp rise in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate. If you analyze the gap on the right side of the chart, it’s a decoupling of the ages. However, while the two lines are destined to reconnect at some point, if the red line falls off a cliff, the impact on the PMs will likely mirror the 2013 taper tantrum. For context, gold fell by more than $500 in less than six months during the event.Finally, and most importantly, U.S. Treasury yields are only one piece of the PMs’ bearish puzzle. Knowing that one shouldn’t put all their eggs in one basket, betting the farm on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield would be investing malpractice. That’s why self-similar patterns, ratios, technical indicators, the relative behavior of the gold miners, the USD Index and the FED’s taper timeline are all prudently considered when forming our investment thesis.As an example, if gold had a perfect correlation with the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the yellow metal would be trading at roughly $1,940. However, with many other factors worthy of our attention, gold’s material underperformance indicates that a mosaic of headwinds undermines its medium-term outlook.In conclusion, Powell’s party was in full swing on Jul. 29, as the PMs and the USD Index headed in opposite directions. However, with the yellow metal still confronted with a tough road ahead, the fundamental outlook remains dicey over the next few months. For example, with the all-time imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market eliciting little optimism, it took Powell’s dovish remarks to ignite the recent fervor. And with both developments likely to reverse in the coming months, the PMs’ upside catalysts may fade with the summer sun.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Silver, the race is on

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.07.2021 16:35
Official records show the US owns some 8,133 tonnes of Gold. While the official number of China’s holding is lower, a fair guesstimate is that China holds roughly 14,500 tonnes.Fintech and IT Benchmarks 2021 research found that nine in ten central banks are feverishly working on digital currencies. Who will have immediate trust to exchange all their currency nest eggs in a brand-new technology? Even Bitcoin, which has proven itself in its ‘sector,’ is allocated not more than one to fifteen percent in the most progressive funds.It can also be assumed that China, which has been working on digital currencies since at least 2014, has the most advanced development in its projects. Meaning, we could expect a possible shift in world power.These and many more facts point towards a physical acquisition of Silver at recently reduced prices in the Silver market to be a good insurance play for wealth preservation.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, What has happened since last week?Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 30th, 2021.We posted the grey section of the daily chart above in last weeks chart book publication with the following text: “We have strong resistance above us (red horizontal box). In addition, the yellow line represents the simple 200-moving average. Probably the most observed moving average, and as such significant in technical analysis. Consequently, we expect prices to decline from there and providing a low-risk double bottom entry near the US$25 level. This would allow the reader ample time to compare their findings. Compare your charts and trading system with our approach to plan a possible trade setup. We are fully transparent and as such, feel free to ask questions in our free Telegram channel.”Prices followed precisely our anticipated moves and allowed us to post real-time in our Telegram channel a daily trading signal at US$24.53 on July 27th and a weekly trading signal on July 28th at US$25.175 to go long the Silver market. Fear not; this doesn’t mean you missed the boat if you weren’t able to enter the Silver market just yet.Let us have a look at the weekly setup and possible entry points: Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Low-risk entry:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 30th, 2021.If you look at the weekly chart above, you will find a trade entry near US$25, offering a long setup with enough room towards US$26 to get the trade financed (risk-free, see our quad exit strategy). Though the price struggles at US$26 (see the fractal volume analysis histogram showing a distribution zone near that price zone), we are confident this entry is worth a shot.What can also be found is a very similar oscillator divergence (b) like last time price touched the up-sloping green trend-line (a). While price moved down, the turbo (yellow line on Commodity Channel Index) went up. In addition, the stochastic (with setting five) also shows similarly an oversold setup slightly below the 20 mark (green circles).Evidence supports that price might retest the price zone near US$25 with the next weekly candle opening. This allows again for a low-risk weekly entry, should you not be positioned yet. Hence, it’s prudent to watch the early days next week for a possible low-risk entry spot.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The big picture, Silver, The race is on:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 30th, 2021.A closer inspection of the monthly chart provides compounding evidence of the long-term bullish trend in Silver. Recent price development for a possible turning point is supported through multiple technical analysis facts:Price bounced from a harmonic Fibonacci level.Price bounced from the 15-simple moving average, which is a significant average for this time frame (bright green line).Bears are struggling to force prices lower after a significant double top near US$30.A sequence of higher price lows along the mid-line of the Linear Regression channel (blue line) warrants a bullish tone after the significant up-leg from US$11.64 March 2020 to US$30.09 this year.With this much evidence of a possible second leg up being underway for much higher price levels than smaller time frames illustrate, we are aggressively buying into lower time frame low-risk entry opportunities.Silver, the race is on:We have no clue how governments will try to hold on to monetary control and power. History shows that they always had a trick up their sleeves like confiscation (this is why we prefer Silver over Gold since Silver is less likely to become an illegal commodity to be owned).We rather avoid the risk based on “the early bird catches the worm.” Bitcoin carries the risk of becoming unlawful since it is relatively new in the mix. Gold is so highly priced that soon even small denominations will become less accessible for everybody. Silver, as of now, seems to fit the bill the best, both in wealth preservation and wealth creation.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 30th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Gold at a Crossroads of Hawkish Fed and High Inflation

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.07.2021 18:27
Gold has been trading sideways recently, but this won’t last forever – the yellow metal is likely to move downward before continuing its rise.So, so you think you can tell heaven from hell, a bull market from a bear market? It’s not so easy, as gold seems to be at a crossroads. On the one hand, accelerating inflation should take gold higher, especially that the real interest rates stay well below zero. On the other hand, a hawkish Fed should send the yellow metal lower, as it would boost the expectations of higher bond yields. The Fed’s tightening cycle increases the interest rates and strengthens the US dollar, creating downward pressure on gold.However, gold is neither soaring nor plunging. Instead, it seems to be in a sideways trend. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold has been moving in a trading zone of $1,700-$1,900 since September 2020.Now, the obvious question is: what’s next? Are we observing a bearish correction within the bull market that started in late 2018? Or did the pandemic and the following economic crisis interrupt the bear market that begun in 2011? Could a new one have started in August 2020? Or maybe gold has returned to its sideways trend from 2017-2018, with the trading corridor simply situated higher?Oh boy, if I had the answers to all the wise questions that I’m asking! You see, the problem is that the coronavirus crisis was a very special recession – it was very deep but also very short. So, all the golden trends and cycles have intensified and shortened. What used to be years before the epidemic, took months this time. Welcome to a condensed gold market!Hence, I would say that the peak of July 2021 marked the end of the bull market which started at the end of 2018, and triggered a new bear market, as traders decided that the vaccines would save the economy and the worst was behind the globe. This is, of course, bad news for all investors with long positions.I didn’t call the bear market earlier, as the combination of higher inflation and a dovish Fed was a strong bullish argument. However, the June FOMC meeting and its dot-plot marked a turning point for the US monetary policy. The Fed officials started talking about tapering, divorcing from its extraordinary pandemic stance.So, I’ve become more bearish in the short-to-medium term than I was previously. After all, gold doesn’t like the expectations of tapering quantitative easing and rising federal funds rate. The taper tantrum of 2013 made gold plunge.Nonetheless, the exact replay of the taper tantrum is not likely. The Fed is much more cautious, with a stronger dovish bias and better communication with the markets. The quantitative tightening will be more gradual and better announced. So, gold may not slide as abruptly as in 2013.Another reason for not being a radical pessimist is the prospects of higher inflation. After all, inflation is a monetary phenomenon that occurs when too much money is chasing too few goods – and the recent rate of growth of the broad money supply was much higher than the pace needed to reach the Fed’s 2% target. The inflationary worries should provide some support for gold prices. What gold desperately needs here is inflation psychology. So far, we have high inflation, but markets remain calm. However, when higher inflation expectations set in, gold may shine thanks to the abovementioned worries about inflation’s impact on the economy – and, thanks to stronger demand for inflation hedges.In other words, gold is not plunging because the Fed is not hawkish enough, and it’s not rallying because inflation is not disruptive enough. Now, the key point is that it’s more likely that we will see a more hawkish Fed (and rising interest rates) sooner than stagflation. As the chart below shows, the real interest rates haven’t yet started to normalize. When they do, gold will suffer (although it might not be hit as severely as in April 2013).Therefore, gold may decline shortly when the US central bank tapers its asset purchases (and the bond yields increase) while the first bout of inflation softens. But later, gold may rise due to the negative effects of rising interest rates and the second wave of higher inflation.In other words, right now, the real economy is thriving, so inflation is not seen as a major problem, as it is accompanied by fast GDP growth. However, the economy will slow down at some point in the future (partially because of higher inflation) – and then we will be moving towards stagflation, gold’s favorite macroeconomic environment.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Intraday Market Analysis – Euro Gains Momentum

Intraday Market Analysis – Euro Gains Momentum

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 02.08.2021 09:10
EURUSD breaks resistanceThe euro inched higher after the eurozone’s Q2 GDP growth topped estimates.The pair has crossed above the 30-day moving average on the daily chart, a sign of unwavering interest from the demand zone at 1.1750. Strong momentum above 1.1880 could be a short squeeze.With sellers out of the picture, for now, buyers will need to consolidate their gains before they could stage a reversal beyond 1.1910. An overbought RSI has led to a limited pullback as intraday bulls take profit. 1.1840 would be the immediate support.USDCAD tumbles through supportThe Canadian dollar rallies as Canada’s GDP showed a smaller contraction in May. The US dollar’s break below 1.2430, a key support from the daily time frame, indicates that sentiment still favors its northern neighbor.The RSI has risen back to the neutrality area, which may give the bears enough room to sell the next rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 1.2550 could be the key hurdle.On the downside, renewed momentum below 1.2420 may push the greenback to the base of July’s rally at 1.2300.XAGUSD attempts bullish reversalSilver extends the rally as the US dollar weakens across the board.An RSI divergence has previously revealed a slowdown in the bearish momentum. The price bounced sharply after the sellers’ last tentative push. The surge above 25.40 suggests broad profit-taking.Once the dust settles and the RSI drops back from its overbought situation, buyers could be looking to initiate a reversal from the psychological level of 25.00 which sits in a former supply zone. 26.20 would be the target if they can gather enough impetus.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Best Assets to Profit Now On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.08.2021 16:10
S&P 500 is in consolidation mode, underpinned by the Fed liquidity inflows. The mid-July dip has been readily bought, and the ascent‘s steepness bodes well for the bulls. No need to be spooked by the tech weakness or valuations just yet – with the Fed having the markets‘ back e.g. via the newly introduced $500bn backstop or repo market interventions, the buy-the-dip crowd will wake up to any discounts like Pavlovian dogs to a bell.As market breadth is on the mend, the VIX is still making lower highs and lower lows – the July winds though have changed that dynamic a little. Summer doldrums are about volatility, which is justifiably keeping the stock bulls on edge in the last few days. While the Fed‘s bluff has been called and the inflation / reopening trades haven‘t gone the way of the dodo bird, some caution is in place if you‘re also focused on portfolio performance (see the upper third of my homepage) – my Jul 06 words are valid also today:(…) Little wonder when all the central bank did, was influence inflation expectations, and precisely nothing about current inflation – let alone pressures in the pipeline. I‘ve discussed the cost-push pressures building up, leading to inflation becoming unanchored. Add job market pressures beyond the difficulties in hiring, and the issue grows more persistent. While it‘s not biting overly noticeably for the financial markets to take notice the way they did in Mar and early May, left unattended, inflation would come to bite in the not so distant future. The takeaway is that with the constant redefinitions of what transitory should mean now, the concept of Fed as inflation fighter is subject to well deserved mockery.Look for the lull in Treasury market to continue, it‘s almost goldilocks economy as the monetary and fiscal support rivals wartime footing circumstances. Makes you wonder what would be on the table if we were faced with a recession. Thankfully, that‘s not on the horizon – we‘re in a multi-year economic expansion that won‘t end with the tapering or tightening games this year or next, not in the least.The economic expansion is set to continue, and Treasury yields aren‘t signalling an impending recession. The Fed is ill-positioned to withdraw liquidity the way it attempted to in 2018, which means that asset price inflation is here to stay – both in the paper and real assets. I‘m still looking for more gains in stocks, precious metals and commodities in general as the tapering / tightening June drama has worked as much (cheap) magic as it could have already. Inflation expectations are tame at the moment, but look for inflation to be way stickier that the pundits see it to – apart from all the arguments I have made in the weeks and months before, there is the real estate market and owners' equivalent that‘s making up roughly a third of CPI. The dollar though looks range bound – I‘m not looking for it to break to new lows any time soon.Gold is well suported by retreating real rates, and the miners‘ underperformance is slowly getting better. I‘m not too worried by the underperforming silver at the moment – the white metal is notorious for its fake shows of weakness, on time frames higher and lower. The commodities bull train (star performer copper – I hope you‘re also enjoying sizable long profits in the red metal that I‘m covering in newly introduced Copper Trading Signals).Oil is a mixed bag with the oil sector and energy underperformance, but that‘s no obstacle to riding enormous open long profits from my Jul 19 call. Triple digit oil looks set to have to wait till next year – I‘m looking for $80 to be reliably capping the upside for now as OPEC+ is (should be) also aware of demand destruction should prices rise too high.Cryptos have sprung to life over July, and the continued Ethereum outperformance bodes well. Considerable patience is still needed though before we can talk of bull trend resumption – but the worst certainly appears to be over.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 isn‘t offering conclusive short-term clues either way, which is why I prefer waiting for an opportune entry point (remember my portfolio focus) – the bears would try their luck this month definitely, but I‘m not looking for their lasting success. Credit MarketsCredit markets performance remains generally supportive – in spite of HYG lagging behind, and Friday‘s whiff of risk-off trading. Encouragingly, TLT is starting to lag behind in the medium run, and that carries implications for growth and interest rate sensitive sectors.Technology and ValueTech heavyweights are taking a noticeable breather, but the rest of the crowd is stepping in – and that equals rotation, still more juice in the reflation trades.Gold, Silver and MinersGold hasn‘t rolled over, far from it – I look for the slow and steady march higher to continue in the medium term. Miners are improving, and Friday‘s show of strength would deserve a companion one of these days too. I‘m still looking for miners to confirm the upcoming gold advance.Silver and copper are diverging, and I look for it to be resolved with the white metal‘s upswing eventually, just as various Treasury or real assets to Treasury ratios point to.Crude OilBlack gold is perched a bit too high after the strong rebound, and upcoming energy sector performance would help the commodity tremendously. Keep the price appreciation expectations tame though – crude oil will do better next year.SummaryS&P 500 remains in a bull market, with no signs of having topped out. As volatility looks to be picking up, expect quite a few buying opportunities in the days and weeks ahead.Gold and silver bulls‘ patience is getting tested, but the underlying dynamics behind the bull run are unbroken. Silver would join the yellow metal in rising, and miners‘ springing back to life on a more consistent basis, would be a key sign to watch for.Crude oil lacks the strength to take on $80 at the moment, let alone $75, and sideways trading looks likely to rule the coming days and probably weeks. Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls have done a great job thus far, and the accumulation hypothesis has been almost fully confirmed by now – taking out 44,000 in Bitcoin is what would provide the final confirmation.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold Jumps for Joy Only to Hit the Ceiling… Hard

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.08.2021 16:19
Powell’s recent dovish remarks started a sugar high among investors. However, it seems like the hangover has already begun.The Gold MinersWhile gold, silver and mining stocks jumped for joy following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Jul. 28, their sugar high ended on Jul. 30. And while I warned that FOMC press conferences often elicit short-term bursts of optimism, it was likely another case of ‘been there, done that.’I wrote prior to the announcement:While the PMs may record a short-term bounce – which often occurs following Powell’s pressers – lower lows are still likely to materialize in the coming months.In the meantime, though, did you notice the tiny buy signal from the HUI Index’s stochastic indicator? And taking that into consideration, is it time to shift to the long side of the trade? Well, for one, it seems very likely that gold miners are declining similarly to how they declined in 2008 and 2012-2013. In both cases, there were local corrections within the decline. As a result, the recent strength does not justify adjusting our short positions in the junior mining stocks, and I continue to view them as prudent from the risk to reward point of view.Second, after the HUI Index recorded an identical short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the HUI Index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff.Please see below:Can you see the HUI’s rally at the end of 2012 that followed a small buy signal from the stochastic indicator? I marked it with a purple, dashed line.No? That’s because it’s been practically nonexistent. The HUI Index moved higher by so little that it’s impossible to see it from the long-term point of view.With the shape of gold’s recent price action, its RSI, and its MACD indicators all mirroring the bearish signals that we witnessed back in December 2012, the current setup signals that we’re likely headed for a similar swoon. Thus, with both gold and the HUI Index sounding the alarm, if the bullish momentum continues, it’s likely to be very limited in terms of size and duration. Conversely, the following slide is likely to be truly profound.For context, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:(…) gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for the gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.If it wasn’t extreme enough, we saw this one more time. Precisely, something similar happened during the week beginning on July 6. The gold price rallied by $27.40, and the HUI Index declined by 1.39.Likewise, with the HUI Index’s ominous signals still present, if history rhymes (as it tends to), medium-term support will likely materialize in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.In addition, the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, bearish head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.Furthermore, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.As further evidence, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the senior miners’ (GDX) RSI rose above 50 last week. However, the milestone preceded several corrective tops in 2020 and 2021. Thus, last week’s Fed-induced strength has only broadened the right shoulder of its bearish H&S pattern, and if completed, the size of the head implies a drawdown to roughly $28.Please see below:Meanwhile, the GDXJ ETF invalidated the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern last week. However, with the milestone likely a speed bump along the junior miners’ bearish journey, a mosaic of indications signal that their medium-term outlook remains quite somber. For context, with the junior miners’ RSI at 48.35, several flirtations with 50 coincided with the short-term peaks in 2021 and were followed by material declines. I marked these cases with red ellipses. And yes, it was also the case during the final corrective pre-slide upswing in March 2020.The bottom line?If gold repeats its June slide, it will decline by about $150. Taking the entire decline into account (since August 2020), for every $1 that gold fell, on average, the GDX was down by about 4 cents (3.945 cents) and GDXJ was down by about 6.5 cents (6.504 cents).This means that if gold was to fall by about $150 and miners declined just as they did in the past year (no special out- or underperformance), they would be likely to fall by $5.92 (GDX) and $9.76 (GDXJ). This would imply price moves to $27.76 (GDX) and $35.78 (GDXJ).In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks received a helping hand from the Fed last week, as the charitable contribution uplifted the precious metals. However, while the central bank achieved its objective and talked down the U.S. dollar, prior bouts of short-term optimism faded once reality reemerged. As a result, with the USD Index now in season and the 2012 analogue looking more prescient by the day, gold, silver, and mining stocks will likely suffer profound declines in the coming months. However, with their long-term fundamentals still extremely bullish, new highs will likely dominate the headlines in the coming years.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Breaks Lower

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.08.2021 08:26
USDJPY struggles for supportThe Japanese yen strengthened on better-than-expected Tokyo CPI in July. The bearish MA cross from the daily timeframe may have put the bulls on the defensive.The dollar’s struggle to keep its head above 109.60 suggests a lack of commitment from the long side. 109.90 has established itself as a fresh resistance.The RSI has risen back into the neutrality area, giving sellers room to push lower. 109.00 is the closest support and its breach could deepen the correction for the days to come.USDCHF falls towards daily supportThe US dollar inches lower as July’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations.The pair dipped further in the bearish territory after 0.9070 failed to keep the price afloat. An oversold RSI has helped the greenback to claw back some lost ground.However, the rebound may be short-lived as sentiment favors selling into strength. 0.9090 is the hurdle where sellers could be waiting to jump in at a better price0.8980 at the origin of the June rebound is a critical demand zone on the daily chart.NAS 100 extends consolidationUS stock markets remain supported thanks to strength among corporate earnings.The Nasdaq 100 has slowly ground its way up from the 20-day moving average. The price action has once again bounced off the demand zone above 14800.As the index recoups its previous losses, there is high hope that the rally could resume to new all-time highs. For this, the bulls will need to lift offers around the peak at 15140. Failing that, a pullback towards 14550, a key level on the daily chart would be the path of least resistance.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Allocation to Gold Is Set to Rise. How Will Prices Respond?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.08.2021 15:17
The latest WGC reports show that institutional allocation to gold will increase. What if there is more to it than just “higher demand, higher price”?In July the WGC published three interesting reports. The first one, Rethink, Rebalance, Reset: Institutional Portfolio Strategies for the Post-Pandemic Period, is an interesting survey of 500 institutional investors around the world ran by Greenwich Associates between October 2020 and January 2021. The study investigated investors about portfolios, allocations and views on various markets, gold, and other individual asset classes.The main result of the survey is that institutional allocations to gold are expected to increase over the next three years. To be more specific, the study finds that, currently, only 20% of institutions have an allocation to gold in their portfolios, which amounts to 4% of their portfolios, on average. However:Almost 40% of current gold investors expect to increase their allocations in the next three years, and about 40% of institutional investors who do not have gold exposure but have a target or have considered it, plan to make an investment in that time frame.The growing allocation to gold partially reflects rising concern about inflation and a search for inflation-protection assets. According to the WGC, gold performs well in periods of high inflation: in the years when the US CPI annual rates were higher than 3%, gold prices rose 15%, on average. My own research shows that gold doesn’t protect against low inflation readings; it hedges only against high and accelerating inflation.However, the study suggests that institutional investors have a broader view of gold than just as an inflation hedge. Actually, portfolio diversification tops inflation-hedging as the major role gold plays in the portfolios. After all, market downturns often boost demand for gold, as the yellow metal has a negative correlation to risk assets, which often increases when these assets sell off. Also, institutions use gold for long-term risk-adjusted return enhancement, especially in the environment of negative interest rates.Importantly, gold may be useful not only for commercial financial institutions but also for the central banks. The second recent WGC report, Monetary gold and central bank capital, discusses the vulnerabilities specific to central bank balance sheets and discusses how gold holdings can mitigate the risks posed. The publication points out that gold provides central banks with extra protection, as it mitigates the risk of asset losses. In particular, gold offsets gains and losses in the US dollar held as a reserve by central banks all around the world:Gold can play a role as a counter-cyclical hedge to USD exposure because, as the dollar weakens, gold strengthens. Hence, revaluation gains on a central bank’s gold portfolio should offset losses suffered on its USD portfolio and help to maintain its core equity.The last report is Gold mid-year outlook 2021: Creating opportunities from risks. The main thesis is that the negative impact of higher bond yields would likely be offset by inflation and stronger demand for gold as a portfolio-diversification in an environment of ultra-low real interest rates and strong risk-taking.The WGC’s thesis corresponds with my observation that gold is at a crossroads of a more hawkish Fed and higher inflation (I will elaborate on this in the upcoming edition of the Gold Market Overview). The report rightly states that gold’s performance in H1 2021 was driven primarily by higher interest rates, which could continue to create headwinds for the yellow metal in the second half of the year.However, the WGC believes that the Fed will be cautious with its tightening cycle. Although that may be true, gold is likely to struggle during the period of strengthening expectations of quantitative tightening and rising interest rates.Implications for GoldWhat can we learn from the recent WGC reports? Well, I believe that the most important information is that the institutional allocation to gold is going to increase in the upcoming years. Given that investment demand for gold is the most important driver of its price, this is positive news for gold bulls.The survey results should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but the recent ETF flows confirm that there is still significant interest in gold. In June, the inflows to gold ETFs slowed down, as the chart below shows, but remained positive (+2.9 tons) despite the plunge in gold prices.According to the WGC, this adjustment suggests that “investors may have taken advantage of the lower price level to gain long gold exposure”. In other words, gold could decline even more, but inflation concerns provided some support. What’s important, the recent dynamics of the ETFs flows don’t look as bad as in 2013 (at least not yet) when gold definitely sank into the bear market. So, although ETFs flows don’t necessarily drive the gold prices, there is a hope that the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle will be less harmful to gold than the infamous 2013 taper tantrum.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Oil – the Odd One Out?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.08.2021 16:24
In line with the pressing circumstances I told you about on Jul 29 at my site, today's report will have to be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 keeps going sideways, but the indicator view suggests increasing vulnerability to a bear raid – just as much as in the tech sector, which wasn‘t outrageously helped by the risk-off start to this week.Credit MarketsCredit markets turned ugly yesterday as the HYG dive shows. Quality instruments outperformed in what could be prelude to selling pressure in stocks emerging.Gold, Silver and MinersGold holding ground is a testament to the risk-off sentiment in the markets – through these lens, miners‘ underperformance better be viewed. The whole PMs sector tiptoes at the moment, remaining stabilized.Crude OilYesterday‘s downswing without a noticeable rebound attempt, highlights the downside risks for oil. Energy sector didn‘t convince either, and the bulls are likely to remain under pressure. Good call to have taken profits off the table today.CopperCopper keeps being relatively resilient in face of steep downswing in commodities overall. At the same time though, it had been underperforming woefully since early Jun, and therefore remains vulnerable to another dip should broader selling in real assets reemerge. And indeed, the profitable stop-loss has been triggered, resulting in further gains. Check out the portfolio chart on my homepage.Bitcoin and EthereumEthereum outperformance is encouraging, but Bitcoin has to find a floor in the recent flag-approximating pattern, which would mark the positive turn‘s continuation in cryptos.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Slope Dope? S&P 500 Monthly Candles Aim for Asteroids

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.08.2021 21:58
It’s no secret that the S&P 500 has been leaving all bears in the dust. How does the recent rate of change measure up to previous bull runs?After seeing many bull and bear markets over the years, I have never quite seen a slope of this magnitude. Of course, a picture is worth a thousand words, so:Figure 1 - S&P 500 Index June 1988 - August 2021, Monthly Candles Linear Chart Source stooq.comThe angle of the ascent has dwarfed previous bull markets by far. Of course, there is more than one way to skin a cat. The above chart is a linear chart (most traders, especially short-term traders use linear charts).However, looking at the recent rally in a logarithmic chart, the ascent does not seem quite as steep.Figure 2 - S&P 500 Index June 1988 - August 2021 Monthly Candles Logarithmic Chart Source stooq.comOn a regular (or linear) price chart, each value change is expressed in the same way. This means that a change of $2 to $4 looks identical to a change of $28 to $30.On a logarithmic chart, the amount of percentage change is what is treated identically.Knowing the difference between the two chart types can be beneficial for traders, and keep price moves in perspective. As we can see in the first chart, the upward move in the S&P 500 looks extreme, while shown in the logarithmic price chart, its angle doesn’t look as sharp.Expressing the runup as a percentage of the S&P 500 since the pandemic lows, we are higher by approximately 103% in eighteen months.In comparison, I would like to take a look at the runup from the tech bubble selloff in 2002 to the highs that were made in 2007.Figure 3 - S&P 500 Index January 1995 - April 2010 Monthly Candles Linear Chart Source stooq.comFrom trough to peak (October 2002 - October 2007), it took the S&P 500 five years to move 105%. Let’s keep in mind that the sell-off from the March 2000 peak to the October 2002 lows was over a 2 year and 7-month period.This is more reminiscent of how bear markets used to be in US equities; there were lower prices over longer time periods.In comparison, the coronavirus meltdown in 2020 was a two-month affair, and we have now been moving higher for 17 months since the lows. Was the coronavirus meltdown a flash crash or indeed a bear market?The meltdown was so short-lived and was obviously nothing that we have ever experienced before.What Do I Emphasize Long Term Charts?Markets do have memories. In fact, I find that longer-term charts are more valuable than short-term charts in almost all timeframe comparisons. Since we are in uncharted territory in the US stock indices, we could gain some kind of insight into the previous trough to peak bull runs.In Summary:From pandemic low to current highs in the S&P 500: 103% in eighteen monthsFrom dotcom low to highs before US Financial Crisis: 105% in five yearsIt can be challenging to get a read on where the US equity markets are trading as a whole these days, given that there is no more chart resistance. In addition, market participants are now accustomed to higher highs, and every dip seems like it is bought more quickly than the last. Although using comparisons like this will not provide insight into exact entry and exit levels, such analysis can provide some long-term comparisons in an otherwise incomparable market. I do hope you find value in this perspective.Now, for our premium subscribers, let's review the markets that we are covering (IYT, UDN, ERTH, & TAN). Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Gold: What's Going To Happen After the Dust Settles?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.08.2021 15:59
When the market wants to move down and gets short-term bullish signals, it often ignores them or reacts weakly – and that’s exactly what gold is doing.This week’s back-and-forth movement in gold, silver, and mining stocks is neither particularly exciting nor interesting. There is, however, some fundamental news that I would like to cover today.Nonetheless, let’s start with the charts. The single notable technical thing is today’s pre-market performance of gold vs. the performance of silver.Here’s what gold did so far today:It moved slightly higher in a relatively boring manner; it moved a bit higher after having moved a bit lower. Nothing to write home about.And here’s what silver did so far today:Silver moved higher as well, and while this move was relatively insignificant in nominal and percentage terms (+0.78%), it was much bigger than what we saw in gold (+0.22%); the difference is crystal-clear when we compare today’s pre-market moves to the most recent short-term highs in both precious metals.Silver moved to its recent short-term high while gold is not even close to being halfway back up. This means that on a very short-term basis, silver is clearly outperforming gold.This is also what tends to happen shortly before significant declines across the precious metals sector.Now, the sizes of both moves were not that significant, so this performance could also be more or less random, and, if that was the case, the outperformance would be just accidental. Consequently, it’s not a game-changing signal in terms of its importance. It is something that’s on top of multiple other indications that we have, and the most important ones are not of a short-term nature at all. The long-term self-similarities in gold and the HUI Index (gold stocks) are the true key to understanding where the precious metals sector is likely to head next, and you already know about those, as I described them thoroughly on Monday.Should We Fear Countertrends?Having said that, let’s move to the less technical details and more fundamental ones. Before I proceed, though, I would like to reply to a question that I just received that will serve as a good segue from the world of the technicals into the world of the fundamentals. Here’s the question (the bold formatting was added by me):You have made a compelling case and a very thorough one for the decline in the precious metals market, and yet the US treasury Bond yields decline and the USD-DXY continue to decline. The analysis needs to include the countertrend that exists and how this countertrend occurred. You refer to this in one-sentence statements which are not very clear. There have been many short-term moves in Gold that have been fairly substantial, and the current trend in the USD and US 10yrT yield is significant. Explaining how the countertrends could and would move within your analysis and projections would help everyone... The daily analyses are much appreciated and I would like to have better understanding of the countertrend moves within your analyses, as well as the US Fed and the ECB influence.And here’s my reply.As far as the USD Index (USD-DXY) is concerned, then I wouldn’t say that it “continues to decline”, as it’s been on the rise since the beginning of this year. But let’s say that we’re talking about the last 2 weeks or so. In this case, the USD Index is indeed declining. The highest recent closing price was 92.98 (July 20). Yesterday’s closing price for the USD Index was 92.09, so the USDX is down by 0.89 – almost a full index point.What did the 10-year yield do between those dates? The $TNX (10-year US Treasury Index) declined from 12.09 to 11.76. But if we took July 13 as the starting date (the recent short-term high in the $TNX), we would see that it moved from 14.15 to 11.76 – a substantial decline.Ok, what did gold do during these times? Almost nothing. Gold moved from $1,811.40 (July 20) to $1,814.10 (August 3). So, while the USD Index declined by almost a full index point, gold moved higher by a mere $2.70.And in the case of the TNX, between July 13 and yesterday, gold moved from $1,809.90 to $1,814.10 (it moved higher by a mere $4.20).Based on this comparison, the reply is already quite evident. What if these trends continue? If these trends continue, gold is likely to do… Nothing.Based on how gold tends to perform (based on the 2008 and 2011-2013 analogies), it’s time for gold to fall, and to fall hard. If it was just gold that was performing just as it did in all those years, it might not have been as critical. But gold stocks (the HUI Index) are doing the same thing! They are also repeating what happened in all those years. And based on these analogies, the markets are about to slide.Now, what does the market do if it wants to move in a given direction (here: down) and it gets bullish signals from other markets or the from news? It ignores them. This could take the form of reacting in a weak manner and then, after the dust settles, moving slowly back down. That’s exactly what gold has been doing.The bullish indications from the USD Index (reminder: they are of a very short-term nature only; the USDX tends to rally after bottoming in the middle of the year) and bond yields are simply delaying the PMs’ slide. At the same time, gold, silver, and mining stocks act like a spring that’s being coiled with bigger force. It doesn’t move, but when something finally changes (yields and the USDX move higher), something big (here: decline in the PMs) is likely to happen.Having said that, let’s move to the more fundamental part of the analysis. I will also discuss the situation in bond yields more thoroughly in the upcoming analyses.Work in ProgressWith the USD Index patiently waiting for the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Aug. 6, the greenback has recorded a muted start to the month. However, if payrolls outperform and investors accelerate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) taper timeline, a U.S. dollar surge could happen sooner rather than later.In the interim, though, the U.S. labor market is trending in the right direction. Case in point: while Gusto – a software company that provides cloud-based payroll, benefits and human resource management solutions for U.S. businesses – largely downplayed the end of enhanced unemployment benefits in many states, an excerpt from the Jul. 27 report read:“Looking at employment trends by employee age, we observe that around the time of governors’ announcements in the first week of May, hiring rates for workers 25 and older rose in states ending these benefits early, which indicates that UI did play a role in the labor supply decisions of a group of adult workers.”Please see below:To explain, the black line above tracks the cumulative headcount of adults 25 and older in the states where enhanced unemployment benefits ended early, while the brown line above tracks the same cohort in states where enhanced unemployment benefits are still in play. If you analyze the acceleration of the black line, it’s clear that fiscal benefits have impacted U.S. citizens’ desire to find employment.Also noteworthy, Indeed revealed on Aug. 3 that U.S. job openings fell by “two points from last week” and that “job postings increased in May, June, and July at a slower pace than in March and April.”Please see below:At first glance, the results may seem disappointing. However, it’s important to remember that if job postings are declining, businesses have likely filled the vacancies. Think about it: when a person is hired, the job posting is no longer necessary. And with the latter declining at a time when enhanced unemployment benefits have ended for roughly 30% of Americans, the ‘coincidence’ signals that a restocking of the U.S. labor force is already underway.Allocation to the Dollar RisesCircling back to the USD Index, as indicated in the CoT reports, the non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds’ allocation to the U.S. dollar are now at 2021 highs.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue, gray and light blue lines above represent net-long positions of non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds. When the lines are falling, it means that the trio have reduced their net-long positions and are expecting a weaker U.S. dollar. Conversely, when the lines are rising, it means that the trio have increased their net-long positions and are expecting a stronger U.S. dollar. And if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the trio have upped their bullish bets in recent weeks (with leveraged funds moving notably higher last week).On the flip side, euro sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. And because the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, the performance of the currency pair is extremely important.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue, gray and light blue lines above track the trio’s allocation to the euro. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that speculative euro bulls are throwing in the towel.Furthermore, the relative fundamentals also favor the greenback. With U.S. GDP growth poised to outperform the Eurozone, growth differentials still signal a stronger U.S. dollar. For example, Stellantis NV – a European automaker that was created following the merger of PSA Group and Fiat Chrysler in 2021 – increased its full-year 2021 earnings guidance on Aug. 3. The main reason? Higher output in North America.Please see below:Source: Stellantis NVHouseholds in the US Are… Wealthier?On top of that, with U.S. fiscal benefits plumping consumers’ balance sheets, household savings in the U.S. far outweighs the Eurozone. For context, the construction of the European Union makes it difficult for the bloc to find common ground on fiscal policy. And while the lack of spending decreases the supply of euros relative to U.S. dollars, the growth outperformance should result in capital flowing into the U.S. and investors buying the U.S. dollar.Please see below:To explain, the stacked bars above depict various regions’ household savings over the last six quarters. If you analyze the column on the right side of the chart labeled “Q2,” you can see that the U.S. (the dark blue section) has much more household savings built up than the Eurozone (the light blue section). As a result, when U.S. citizens’ willingness to spend matches their ability to spend, the prospective economic outperformance is bullish for the greenback.To that point, while the U.S. is about to recoup its pre-pandemic GDP growth trajectory, the Eurozone isn’t expected to reach the milestone until late 2022.Please see below:To explain, the chart on the left compares the Eurozone’s current growth trajectory (the blue line) with its pre-pandemic trend (the pink line). If you analyze the gap, you can see that the Eurozone is still a ways away from recapturing its past glory. Conversely, if you turn your attention to the chart on the right, you can see that the U.S. has already recouped its pre-pandemic GDP level (100) and the region is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic trend in the third or fourth quarter of 2021.Finally, with the momentum shifting across emerging markets, foreign portfolio flows have stalled once again.Please see below:To explain, the stacked bars above categorize non-resident portfolio flows into emerging markets, while the black line above tracks the consolidated total. If you analyze the sharp fall in early 2020 and the sharp rise in late 2020, the former coincided with a sharp rise in the USD Index, while the latter coincided with a sharp fall in the USD Index. More importantly, though, if you focus your attention on the right side of the chart, you can see that non-resident portfolio flows into emerging markets continue to lose momentum. And if the dynamic persists, it will likely add even more fuel to the USD Index’s fire.In conclusion, the precious metals’ performance was mixed on Aug. 3, as payrolls uncertainty has many assets stuck in consolidation mode. However, whether reality resurfaces on Aug. 6 or the PMs bask in what’s left of the summer sun, the bearish medium-term implications remain intact. With the U.S. labor market moving closer to the FED’s taper threshold, the PMs have become increasingly anxious. And after the U.S. 10-Year real yield hit another all-time low on Aug. 2, the metals’ inability to muster a relief rally is a sign of extreme weakness. The bottom line? While short-term bursts of strength are definitely possible and expected along the way, the PMs’ medium-term trend still remains down. And it seems that the current short-term corrective upswing in gold, silver, and mining stocks is over or about to be over.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Risk-Off Moves Returning

Risk-Off Moves Returning

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.08.2021 16:31
In line with the pressing circumstances I told you about on Jul 29 at my site, today's report will again have to be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookIn spite of yesterday‘s upswing, S&P 500 keeps going sideways, and the indicators aren‘t all clear on the bulls‘ great prospects. The vulnerability to a bear raid is still very much there.Credit MarketsCredit markets didn‘t really reverse yesterday – the risk-off sentiment remains very much on in spite of HYG erasing intraday losses. The stock market bulls aren‘t out of the woods in spite of the improving market breadth.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners‘ strong showing yesterday bodes well for both precious metals, and I‘m looking for more gains in the sector. Remember that declining real rates on account of the risk-off bond moves, increase gold‘s appeal just as much as any worries about a decelerating economy or external shocks.Crude OilYesterday‘s downswing was partially bought, and the energy sector increase (great performance within the S&P 500) would point to a reversal soon. I‘m though not convinced that the bottom is in and that the bears have said their last word. CopperCopper has traded on a weak note yesterday, and hasn‘t convincingly stabilized just yet. The volume indicating buying interest isn‘t there.Bitcoin and EthereumTrading little changed, both cryptos are more than likely to go higher next, even if the indicators aren‘t yet hinting at that possibility strongly. Should they turn from here (likely in the current atmosphere, alongside with PMs), that would be a promising sign for the bulls.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

S&P 500 Slips at Close, Sector Strength Tells Defensive Story

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.08.2021 00:13
As the S&P 500 chugs higher and higher, have you been monitoring the sector strength over the last month? Taking a deeper look into leading sectors paints a different picture.Broader markets have been quiet over the last few days and trading in narrow ranges. While the overall trend in the short term has been higher, albeit, with a sideways tone, one cannot help feeling that this market is a bit on the defensive side.Today, we saw the S&P 500 slip at the close, finishing the day lower by 0.46%, featuring some selling at the close.As we noted on Monday, the $VIX had been rising, even with the S&P 500 up fractionally. Although the $VIX settled down in yesterday’s session, we can certainly take away that protection was being bought during an otherwise quiet session on Monday.Sector StrengthLooking Back at the past 30 days, here is where the sector strength has been:Figure 1 - Leading Sectors July 6, 2021 - August 4, 2021, Source stockcharts.comHealth Care certainly makes sense with the vaccine administration and the overall macro news theme that has been featured over the last month surrounding the delta variant.However, coming in at number two, we see Utilities taking the spotlight, almost up as much as Health Care. Utilities tend to connote highly to a defensive or even overall bearish market stance. Let’s take a look at the XLU (Utilities Sector Fund):Figure 2 - XLU Utilities Select Sector Fund ETF February 15, 2021 - August 4, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comAs you most likely know, utility stocks are high dividend-paying (for the most part), defensive plays when more aggressive growth plays become out of favor. It is concerning for the broader markets when utilities catch such a bid that is in place right now.In our July 23rd publication, we covered the price divergence in the Dow Jones Transports. The Transports put in a high on May 10th, and they have been falling ever since. This price action is in sharp contrast to the broader market averages making fresh highs.We were ready when the IYT bounced and traded near the top of its recent downward channel.Figure 3 - IYT iShares Transportation Average ETF February 1, 2021 - August 4, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.comThe setup in IYT was a nice one and the day after identification rewarded traders with a gap lower. Our initial short entry zone that was identified was between $257.00 and $259.99. Prices traded in this area on the same day and the next day IYT gapped down. Our current price target is $243.01. This level can change over time, so stay tuned for updates.Now, let’s examine the other markets that we are covering for Premium Subscribers.Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael ZorabedianStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

More Chop Before NFPs, Or Not?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.08.2021 16:09
Again, today's report will be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTuesday‘s intraday reversal looks to mark the meek bearish push I talked about on Monday – I‘m looking for the bulls to be today on the initiative. Today, that‘s a key word here, especially given the (a bit too one-way extended but still) risk-off credit markets, and tomorrows non-farm payrolls of course.Credit MarketsThe plunge in high yield corporate bonds is going a bit too far in my view – and unless the 500-strong index joins, I don‘t see HYG as leading to the downside to usher in a sizable correction. HYG deceleration followed by stabilization and upswing would be the best the stock bulls can hope for.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners‘ strong showing was relegated to history yesterday, but we haven‘t seen a reversal to the downside – upswing rejection is all that happened. Silver weakness had more to do with yesterday‘s commodity (namely copper and oil) woes than anything else.Crude OilThe oil downside wasn‘t indeed over, and resulted in fresh oil short profits yesterday, taking my portfolio results to new highs. The rising volume shows that we‘re potentially approaching a reversal, but so far there isn‘t any proof thereof.Natural GasSteady uptrend in the other key energy asset, natural gas. The break above the prior sideways to slightly lower flag / triangle approximating structure, happened on higher volume, and is thus more credible. Good that the fundamentals support the upcoming appreciation higher, too.Bitcoin and EthereumYesterday‘s crypto gains haven‘t been entirely defended, but it would be premature to talk about downside reversal. Consolidation playing out with Ethereum‘s continued outperformance of Bitcoin, is the kind of surefire conclusion here.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Will the Fed Bring Gold to the Bottom?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.08.2021 13:05
The Fed’s reverse repos reached almost $1 trillion in June. Brace yourselves gold bulls – tightening is coming!Something interesting is happening in the financial markets. As you probably know, the Fed’s reverse repurchase operations have been increasing recently. At the very end of June, their volume almost reached one trillion dollars ($991.9 billion)! It’s a record high, as the chart below shows.Oh boy, what a spike! What does it mean? Well, when the Fed purchases assets, it injects liquidity into the markets. On the contrary, when the US central bank engages in reverse repurchase operations, it drains liquidity from the markets. This is because reverse repurchase agreements are purchases of securities with the agreement to sell them at a higher price at a specific future date – of course, we refer here to buying and selling from the point of view of financial institutions. They are purchasing assets from the Fed to resell them later, so they basically lend some money to the US central bank.In other words, the record high volume of repos means that financial institutions pour cash into the Fed like mad. We could say that there is an excessive liquidity problem in the financial markets, so commercial banks and other institutions deposit abundant cash at the Fed (you can think of reverse repos as short-term loans).So, we have a somewhat paradoxical situation. The Fed is still purchasing assets under its quantitative easing program, injecting liquidity into the financial sphere. However, market participants don’t need this liquidity, so they buy back some assets from the Fed in the form of reverse repo operations. Given that the Fed buys about $120 billion per month in Treasuries and MBS, the reverse repos have already undone more than eight months of QE!Part of the problem here is the crazy world of negative real interest rates. In such an environment, commercial banks prefer safe, close-to-zero interest rates from the Fed to risking anything in the market. In other words, the bond yields are so low that banks don’t want to deploy funds productively but prefer to hold them safely at the Fed. Such behavior is completely understandable in the world of negative yields, but it will lead to sluggish investment and economic growth. Well, abundant liquidity that becomes a hot potato, as well as slow real growth, sound like positive factors for gold, which likes stagflation-like conditions.However, the reverse repos are strictly linked to the Fed’s plan to normalize its monetary policy at some point in the future. But hiking the federal funds rate is not simple with such a mammoth balance sheet. You see, the Fed’s balance sheet is simply too big. As the chart below shows, the US central bank’s assets amount to above $8 trillion.Such a giant balance sheet creates downward pressure on the interest rates. If left alone, they could even drop below zero. This is why the Fed started the overnight repurchase operations – to drain some excessive liquidity from the markets in order to regain control over the interest rates. So, the current developments in the repo market are a strong signal that the Fed is preparing for raising the interest rates. Actually, the Fed has already lifted its repo rate from 0% to 0.05%, allegedly as a technical adjustment. This is a fundamentally negative factor for the gold market.Nonetheless, gold bulls may find comfort in the fact that it’s not easy to return to normalcy. Remember the Fed’s previous attempt to normalize its monetary policy? The US central bank had to reverse its course in 2019, just two years after starting the balance sheet’s reduction. It turned out that quantitative tightening was too harsh for fragile financial markets, and the Fed had to pump liquidity again (in the form of repo operations), as well as cut the interest rates – even before the pandemic and the following economic crisis started. Similarly, by paying trillions in reverse repos at 0.05% now, the Fed makes them more attractive, planting the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.In other words, the Fed’s tightening cycle practically always ended up in a recession. Moreover, there were many indicators that the recession would take place in 2020 or 2021 anyway, even without the coronavirus and the Great Lockdown. So, this time won’t be different. Well, actually, it could be different –in such a way that the next recession will be accompanied by higher inflation. If stagflation really occurs, gold will shine as it did in the 1970s.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Risk-on Friday and NFPs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.08.2021 15:10
Again, today’s report will be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNasdaq did better than the S&P 500 yesterday, and the bulls look primed to extend gains today. The lower volume in a sluggish day before today‘s non-farm payrolls isn‘t an issue – the key question for the coming week is digestion of the anticipated not too bad numbers, which would bring taper closer in the marker‘s mind.Credit MarketsThe plunge in high yield corporate bonds was more than decisively reversed yesterday, and the quality instruments suffered. Risk-on going into Friday, that‘s a good sign.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners‘ renewed weakness isn‘t a good signal going into today‘s session as precious metals were hit by the yield moves and faltering TIPS. Once again, inflation expectations are sending mixed signals with RINF being more resilient than TIP:TLT, and I continue to lean in favor of inflation turning out more stubborn than too many think. The notion of approaching taper is biting too.Crude OilOil was indeed very close to reversing, and the strong showing in the energy sector bodes well for the nearest days. Local bottom looks to have formed, accompanied by greater resilience in the oil sector than was the case in mid-Jul.CopperCopper has turned, modestly thus far – the commodity index increase is more pronounced. Lower volume is a watchout, but the unfolding upswing should overpower it, letting open copper profits grow.Bitcoin and EthereumResolute downswing rejection in both Ethereum and Bitcoin – what more could the bulls wish for? It wasn‘t evidently sell the news day for ETH – the accumulation in cryptos can continue.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

The Tapering Clock Is Ticking: Fed Gives Gold Some Time

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.08.2021 16:55
The Fed acknowledged the economy’s progress, but it’s still not “substantial progress.” In short, Powell merely slowed the hand of the tapering clock.Last week (July 28, 2021), the FOMC published its newest statement on monetary policy. The publication was barely altered. The Fed noted that the US economy has continued to strengthen, although the sectors most heavily hit by the pandemic haven’t fully recovered yet. According to the FOMC members, the economy continues to depend on the course of the coronavirus, but not “significantly” anymore. So, the Fed acknowledged that the American economy has strengthened (even with the recent worries about delta variant) and that we are returning to post-epidemic normalcy. Theoretically, it’s bad news for gold, but this is something we all know, so the practical impact should be minimal.A much more interesting change in July’s FOMC statement is the part about the Fed’s asset purchases:Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.As one can see, the US central bank admitted that the economy had made progress towards its goals, but it was just “progress”, while the Fed needs “substantial further progress” to normalize its monetary policy. So, we still have some distance to the tapering of quantitative easing.However, the emphasis that economy has made progress towards Fed’s goals is a hawkish signal that the tightening cycle is on the way. This is, at least, how markets interpreted the message, as the likelihood of a 2022 interest rate hike has initially increased after the FOMC meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.This would be bad for gold, but Powell held out a helpful, dovish hand. During his press conference, Fed Chairman noted that the US economy is far away from reaching “substantial further progress” toward the maximum employment goal.So, what would substantial further progress be? I'd say we have some ground to cover on the labor market side. I think we're some way away from having had substantial further progress with max -- toward the maximum employment goal. I would want to see some strong job numbers. And that's kind of the idea.Powell also reiterated that the Fed would provide advance notice before tapering its asset purchases and that the liftoff of the interest rates is still a long way ahead of us, as the Fed won’t raise the federal funds rate before tapering:In coming meetings the Committee will again assess the economy’s progress toward our goals, and the timing of any change in the pace of our asset purchases will depend on the incoming data. As we have said, we will provide advance notice before making any changes to our purchases (…)We’re clearly a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now. You know, so when we get to that question, when we start to get to the question of liftoff, which we are not at all at now or near now, that’s when we’ll ask that question. That is when that will become a real question for us (…)And, again, it’s not timely for us to be thinking about raising interest rates right now. What we’re doing is we're looking at our asset purchases and judging what is right for the economy and judging how we -- how close we are to substantial further progress and then tapering after that.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent FOMC meeting imply for the gold market? Well, as the chart below shows, the recent statement on monetary policy wasn’t particularly impactful on the yellow metal. Gold declined slightly below $1,800 on the day of the publication, but it increased to $1,829 the next day. Since then, the price of the yellow metal has returned to the level of around $1,800.However, the FOMC’s decision may have some longer-term implications for the gold market as well. On the one hand, the statement and Powell’s press conference were dovish, as they emphasized that – despite some progress – the substantial progress hasn’t materialized yet, so we are still ahead of the tapering, not even mentioning any hikes in the interest rates. So, gold could catch its breath.On the other hand, the tapering clock is ticking. In June, the Fed started talking about tapering, while last month it noted that some progress has been made towards its goals. It’s likely that within a few months mere progress will transform into substantial progress, especially given that the job gains in July were strong and above the forecasts. With further improvements in the labor market, the expectations of a more hawkish Fed should strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the gold prices.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold Slides Massively – Be Ready For More!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 09.08.2021 14:01
What a week! Gold has dropped almost $60 since Friday, and silver came along reaching new yearly lows! Are you prepared for a wild ride downwards?The USD Index (USDX)While many investors forecasted a sharp decline in the USD Index, I warned on Aug. 2 that the stars were aligning for the greenback. And with gold, silver and mining stocks exhibiting strong negative correlations with the U.S. dollar, the latter’s rise could result in the former’s demise.I wrote:With the USD Index demonstrating late-week strength and bouncing off of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the greenback may have recorded a short-term bottom. In both 2008 and 2014, small moves lower solidified the USD Index’s short-term bottoms and remarkable rallies followed. In fact, the rapid reversals in both cases occurred with RSIs near 50 (close to the current reading of 53.32) and it’s likely a matter of when, not if, the greenback records a significant upward re-rating. The bottom line? The PMs will likely bear the brunt of the USD Index’s forthcoming strength.And after the USD Index soared back above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern last week – and caused gold, silver and mining stocks to plunge in the process – the USDX remains poised to recapture ~98 over the medium term.Please see below:To explain, the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. For example, summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights.What’s more, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. And with the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration.Please see below (quick reminder: you can click on the chart to enlarge it):Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices here is likely not a good idea.As further evidence, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the smart money is already backing the greenback.Please see below:The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, the USD Index’s comeback dropped the guillotine on gold, silver and mining stocks, and with the GDXJ ETF (profits on our short position here increased further) also plunging by more than 5% last week, the greenback is having a profound impact on the precious metals. Moreover, with the latter also pressured by rising interest rates and the Fed’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric, lower lows are likely to materialize over the medium term. However, with robust fundamentals signaling a significant comeback over the long term, we eagerly await the opportunity to go long the precious metals once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold and Silver Massacre to Continue?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.08.2021 15:59
Again, today’s report will be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe tightly tracking each other indices – S&P 500 and Nasdaq – are likely to part ways to a degree soon. As Treasury yields made a double bottom, look for more tech to give way to cyclicals as they come back. Inflation, reopening trades and interest-rate sensitive spreads (e.g. financials over utilities) should start doing better.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds resilience is a good sign, and credit spreads likely to start widening again would confirm the continued albeit questioned economic expansion. Not hiccup-free but still continuing – unless the Fed tightens prematurely and too much. The market isn‘t worried about that though at the moment.Gold, Silver and MinersGrim price action in the metals, and more be yet to come (looking at overnight price action, in all likehood we‘re done with shakeouts) – gold and silver usually do better once the waiting for taper is over. The Bernanke experience is the right one to compare taper prospects to, but the Fed will have a much harder time mopping up the excess liquidity than it did in 2018 – commercial bank credit creation isn‘t still there to make up for lost central bank purchases. Gold is getting inordinarily scared even as inflation isn‘t showing signs of retreating and real rates remain deeply negative – only inflation expectations have been jawboned. As neither miners to gold ratio nor TIPS signal panic, the only question is when the metals would stabilize and whether a fresh washout would occur or not. My view is that we‘re way closer to the pain‘s end than to its June beginning.Crude OilOil staged another reversal, and it was intraday to the downside. How credible is that? Again trading within the $60-$80 range, I‘m of the opinion that prices are interesting to the buyers here, as black gold got caught in the taper fears selloff just as gold with silver or copper did. Oil demand may be also coming under pressure through all the restrictions even though APT doesn‘t signal its sharply rising odds (yet).CopperCopper retreated from promising upswing, but its indicators are slowly turning positive. While it has mirrored the yields compression (signs of weakening growth / growth worries), it looks ready to gradually come back to life and play catch up with the commodity index.Bitcoin and EthereumResolute downswing rejection of Sunday‘s retracement in both Ethereum and Bitcoin – the bulls are on the march still. Cryptos have turned the corner very evidently indeed. With so much bearish sentiment out there, the dips might be short-lasting and shallow.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

The Newest Nonfarm Payrolls Crushed Gold Like a Sandcastle

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.08.2021 11:52
The US economy added almost 1 million jobs in July, building solid ground for tapering. Meanwhile, the PMs’ sandy foundations crumbled spectacularly.Another blow to gold! July’s nonfarm payrolls came in strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 943,000 jobs last month, following 938,000 additions in June (after an upward revision). More than one-third of all gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, reflecting the economy’s reopening after the Great Lockdown.What’s more, the nonfarm payrolls surprised the markets on the positive side. The economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecasted “only” 845,000 gains. Additionally, the employment in May and June combined was 119,000 higher than previously predicted. Another positive revelation was the decline in the unemployment rate from 5.9% to 5.4% – a much lower level than it was expected (5.7%), as the chart above shows.Although the number of employed people is still down by 5.7 million from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020, it’s much higher than in April 2020 (by 16.7 million) – a clear sign that the US labor market is recovering from the last year’s recession and heading into full employment.Importantly, the July nonfarm payrolls came in one week after the strong advance estimate of the US GDP in Q2 2021. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the real GDP increased 12.2% year-over-year (or 1.59% quarter-to-quarter or 6.5% at an annual rate). As the chart below shows, it was the quickest pace of economic growth since the fourth quarter of 1950. Of course, the number results from a very low base last year, but it doesn’t change the fact that the economy has strengthened recently.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent employment report imply for the gold market? Well, in the last Fundamental Gold Report, I pointed out that the Fed started the countdown to the tapering of its quantitative easing and would announce it later this year:The tapering clock is ticking. In June, the Fed started talking about tapering, while last month it noted that some progress has been made towards its goals. It’s likely that within a few months mere progress will transform into substantial progress, especially given that the job gains in July were strong and above the forecasts. With further improvements in the labor market, the expectations of a more hawkish Fed should strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the gold prices.The latest surprisingly strong nonfarm payrolls bring us closer to the beginning of the Fed’s tightening cycle. You see, the thing the Fed lacked to recognize “substantial progress” towards its goal of maximum employment was a few strong employment reports. Last month, the US economy added almost 1 million jobs, which significantly reduced the slack in the labor market.If August turns out to be similarly strong, the FOMC could announce the start of the tapering of its asset purchases in September. Actually, some analysts believe that Powell could signal it in his speech in Jackson Hole at the end of August.So, in line with my previous commentary, the strong nonfarm payrolls lifted the expected path of the federal funds rate, sending gold prices much lower. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of an interest rate hike in December 2022 increased after the publication of the employment report from 58.8% to 66.2%. As a result, the price of gold plunged from around $1,800 to $1,760, as the chart below shows.Unfortunately, gold has further room to continue its slide. Each positive economic news or any hawkish signal from the Fed (e.g., Richard Clarida, Fed Vice Chair, expressed his belief last week that “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022”) could add to the expectations of higher interest rates and to the downward pressure on the yellow metal.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – USD To Test Key Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – USD To Test Key Resistance

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 10.08.2021 15:32
USDCHF approaches key hurdleThe US dollar continues to make up lost ground thanks to post-NFP momentum.The break above 0.9150, the last leg of the previous sell-off, suggests solid commitment from the bulls. The rebound has originated from the demand zone around 0.9030 on the daily chart, and it is heading towards the major resistance at 0.9230.A bullish breakout may help the dollar break free of a narrowing consolidation range and resume the rally from the start of the year.0.9140 is the first support in case of a pullback to let the RSI cool down.EURGBP tumbles through floorThe sterling rises as traders bet that the BOE would start to tighten its policy sooner than most of its peers.The daily support at 0.8470 has failed to contain the firesale. The bearish breakout has invalidated April’s rebound as sellers became more aggressive.The downward momentum is pushing the price towards 0.8400.An oversold RSI may have caused a limited bounce as intraday traders take some chips off the table. Sentiment remains downbeat though, as long as the euro is under 0.8520.GER 30 struggles to break higherThe Dax 30 hits a speed bump as investors fret about tapering in the wake of strong US jobs data. The rebound has come to a halt right at the peak at 15800.Buyers’ struggle to push past the all-time high indicates stiff pressure from both profit-taking and fresh selling.The RSI divergence in this kind of major supply area is a warning sign as buying has lost its impetus.The break below 15660 could prompt the bulls to bail out. 15440 would be the next support as the index goes into a correction.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Inflation Trades – Rebounding or Sinking

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.08.2021 15:43
Again, today’s report will be shorter than usual, and focus on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookYesterday‘s S&P 500 downswing was driven by tech, and it wasn‘t the heavyweights that pulled it down. Yes, Nasdaq is in as precarious short-term position as the 500-strong index – about to fall steeply just as gold did? Probably not, but vulnerable to a corrective move that could easily reach a few percent. The infrastructure bill is rather factored into the expectations, and similarly to Fed taper looming, any surprise could serve as a selling catalyst. The drying up volume may not be a sign of no more sellers here, but rather of combination of timid sellers and drying up pool of buyers. With the strong CPI data likely to be announced tomorrow, the bears would likely try their luck.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds are only relatively resilient – they are under the same kind of pressure as quality debt instruments. Credit spreads are likely to start widening again in confirmation of the continued albeit doubted economic expansion – as yields start their (slow) march higher again, look for the ride in equities to get rockier, and for tech to start diverging. Last but not least, the market breadth indicators aren‘t exactly at their strongest – signs of weakening (warranting caution in stocks) are impossible to miss.Gold, Silver and MinersWeekly gold chart shows just how overdone the plunge has been – and that it went at odds with both TIPS and (understandably once again) rising inflation expectations. The chart also reveals the success of Fed‘s June actions in i.a. driving gold down. Does the market seriously believe that the Fed would turn into an inflation fighter? That they wouldn‘t lag behind both the incoming forward looking and lagging inflation metrics? Make no mistake, the June ISM services PMIs were the highest ever – there is plenty of inflation in the pipeline, and you‘re in essence making a bet whether the central bank will duly mop up the excesses, or not. I‘m in the latter camp, and that means the current gold and silver values are highly interesting to the medium-term investor and trader.Crude OilOil has rebounded off the premarket lows, and is likely to turn higher from here. Note the oil sector resilience vs. what would likely turn out as overdone selling before yesterday‘s regular session kicked in.CopperCopper has likewise stabilized in the PMs induced selloff hitting commodities as well. On one hand the volume doesn‘t indicate local low being reached already, on the other the 4.20s zone is likely to hold unless a game changer strikes. That‘s unlikely at the moment – the inflation data this week are more than likely to support real assets, even if they give the Fed an excuse / justification to indicate improving economy conditions in Jackson Hole, and announce taper in September. Look for commodities to recover then fast, faster than precious metals.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto upswing goes on, without respite, with every dip promptly bought. As the $48-50K resistance in Bitcoin approaches, look for air to become a little thinner – it would take time to overcome it, and Ethereum can be relied upon in showing the direction. It‘s also positive to see both leading cryptos rebound almost as strongly off the capitulation July lows.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – US Stocks Continue To Soar

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 11.08.2021 09:18
US 30 shoots to new highThe Dow Jones 30 rose to a record high after the US Senate passed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The initial surge above 35100 was a sign of strong buying interest.The index has then found support at 35030 near the top of the previous consolidation range.A series of higher highs indicates that the bullish bias is still intact.The RSI has popped up into the overbought area once again, and a temporary pullback may allow the bulls to raise their stakes. 35500 would be the next stop as the rally picks up steam.EURUSD lacks supportDownbeat economic sentiment in the eurozone further depresses the euro against a roaring US dollar.The break below 1.1760 from the daily chart has put buyers on the defensive. Strong inertia in favor of the greenback fuels the bearish ride as momentum traders pile in.The former support has turned into resistance (1.1770). The euro is testing the next support at 1.1710, where a bearish breakout may extend the sell-off to last November’s low at 1.1600.Then a reversal could be in the making in the medium term.XAGUSD sinks to major supportBullions struggle as US bond yields rise amid hawkish Fed comments about a taper in the fourth quarter.Silver’s latest rally may turn out to be a dead cat bounce as sentiment remains extremely cautious. Price action is grinding down along the moving averages.24.35 is now the new resistance. Sellers would be eager to dump at a better price before the RSI goes oversold again.The psychological level of 22.00 from last November would be a critical test of the rally from March 2020.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Gold Miners: Celebration Time

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.08.2021 12:48
Another day, another decline in junior miners – and another increase in profits from short positions in them. Shouldn’t we expect a rebound though?Well, no. The rebound already happened in late July and early August, and what we see now is the trend being resumed. Consequently, even if it wasn’t for all the long-term analogies to the 2012-2013 declines in gold and gold stocks (HUI Index), one should expect the current short-term decline to be significantly bigger than the counter-trend upswing which ended earlier this month. At this time, the move lower is just somewhat bigger than the preceding rally. Thus, it’s not excessive and can easily continue.However, let’s keep in mind that periods of very high volatility usually need to be followed by periods of relatively low volatility. That’s when investors verify if the “new reality” – the price levels after the decline – are justified or not. If the market votes “no”, we get huge rebounds and breakdowns’ invalidations. So far this week, the markets have been voting “yes”.Consequently, the current back-and-forth trading is perfectly normal, and it’s in tune with what I wrote in the previous days – even in the case of the details. While the precious metals are taking a breather, the gold mining stocks continue to decline, but in a steadier manner. That’s what happened earlier this year (in February and in late-June / early-July 2021) and during the 2013 slide.While a steady decline might not get as many heads turning as big daily slides, it also serves a very important purpose. You see, the mining stocks (GDX includes both: gold stocks and silver stocks) are now verifying the breakdown below the neck level of the head and shoulders pattern. Once this breakdown is verified (just one more daily close is needed), miners will be likely to fall much lower, as the target resulting from this formation is based on the size of its head. In this case, it implies a move to about $28.In the case of the junior gold miners, the situation is even more bearish, as they just moved below the previous yearly lows, and they are confirming the breakdown.Please note how the junior miners lost their momentum right after declining on relatively big volume. In yesterday’s analysis (Aug. 10), I commented on junior miners’ breakdown in the following way:This move was not yet confirmed, but with the significant volume on which it took place, it looks quite believable. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few days of consolidation before senior miners move much lower.As I wrote earlier today, gold and silver were not doing much yesterday (and in today’s pre-market trading at the moment of writing these words), but it’s a perfectly normal phenomenon.In fact, if gold moves back to the previously broken lows at about $1,750, it won’t invalidate the bearish narrative.The Most Powerful Tool – Self-SimilarityGold has a triangle-vertex-based reversal close to the end of the next week, which means that it could continue to consolidate or move a bit higher in the next several days, and then slide once again. Please note that this would make the current decline very similar in terms of its pace to the decline that we saw in June. While the moves don’t have to be identical, the gold price quite often moves in similar patterns – I’ve seen this many times in the past decade (and beyond). For example, please note how similar the short-term declines that we saw between August 2020 and December 2020 were.And while gold is consolidating after breaking below its June lows, the GDX is doing so after breaking below the neck level of the head-and-shoulders pattern and the GDXJ is trading sideways after breaking to new yearly lows, silver is also consolidating after a breakdown to new yearly lows.Unless silver manages to soar back above the March lows shortly (and it seems unlikely that it does), it will be likely to fall profoundly once again soon.The inverse of the above is likely the USD Index, which is verifying its second attempt to break above its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.The August 2020 highs are the next short-term resistance for the USD Index, but I don’t expect it to decline significantly from there. Instead, it seems to me that the USDX will rally to almost 98 based on the inverse H&S pattern, and then it might consolidate.So, while the USD Index and the precious metals market might consolidate for a few days (or even up to two weeks), they are likely to continue their most recent sizable moves shortly thereafter. Consequently, while I can’t make any promises with regard to the performance of any asset, it seems that the profits on the short positions in junior miners are going to increase substantially in the coming weeks.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

CPI Fuel and the Smoldering Inflation Fire

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.08.2021 16:04
For all the CPI hoopla, remember that this is a monthly figure – all data tend to fluctuate, especially those heavily massaged ones (substitution, hedonistic adjustments, owners‘equivalent rent coupled with exclusion of certain essentials for their prices are deemed too volatile).The Fed keeps walking a very fine line, and it‘s a success that the market isn‘t revolting – given the infrastructure bill passing Senate, calls on OPEC+ to increase production, it‘s clear to me that whatever today‘s figure, inflation will keep being a thorn in its side for a long time – as simple as putting 2 + 2 together. Again, today’s report will be shorter than usual, and focus on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 keeps holding up but Nasdaq not very much so – quoting from yesterday‘s analysis:(…) Yes, Nasdaq is in as precarious short-term position as the 500-strong index – about to fall steeply just as gold did? Probably not, but vulnerable to a corrective move that could easily reach a few percent. The infrastructure bill is rather factored into the expectations, and similarly to Fed taper looming, any surprise could serve as a selling catalyst. The drying up volume may not be a sign of no more sellers here, but rather of combination of timid sellers and drying up pool of buyers. With the strong CPI data likely to be announced tomorrow, the bears would likely try their luck.Credit MarketsCredit market weakness is catching up ever more with high yield corporate bonds as they are getting under the same kind of pressure as quality debt instruments. Credit spreads are likely to start widening again as we‘re still in an economic expansion, and that would lift stock market spreads such as financials to utilities. Anyway, with rising yields look for the ride in equities to get rockier, and for tech to be diverging – yesterday was a preview of things to come. Gold, Silver and MinersYesterday, I made a case for why we‘re at an interesting valuation point in gold and silver. The daily chart view though still looks as bleak as ever – merely price stabilization while miners continue leading lower. The dust hasn‘t indeed settled and the success of Fed‘s June actions is still with us as inflation expectations and TIPS are being ignored:(...) Does the market seriously believe that the Fed would turn into an inflation fighter? That they wouldn‘t lag behind both the incoming forward looking and lagging inflation metrics? Make no mistake, the June ISM services PMIs were the highest ever – there is plenty of inflation in the pipeline, and you‘re in essence making a bet whether the central bank will duly mop up the excesses, or not. I‘m in the latter camp, and that means the current gold and silver values are highly interesting to the medium-term investor and trader.Crude OilOil has rebounded off Monday‘s premarket lows, but has met selling pressure even before today‘s message to OPEC+ was announced. I‘m counting on the oil sector continued resilience, but am not looking for similarly smooth sailing in black gold all that fast. Not at all.CopperCopper paints a brighter picture by quite a few hues, and the commodity index has likewise sprang to life vigorously. The 4.20s support zone is likely to hold unless a game changer strikes, which has gotten a little more unlikely compared to yesterday (watching the news tape). The inflation data are more than likely to support real assets, even if they enable the Fed to declare improving economy conditions in Jackson Hole, and announce (watered down) taper (with strings attached) in September. Look for commodities to recover then fast, faster than precious metals.Bitcoin and EthereumThe slow motion crypto upswing goes on, without respite – consolidating and likely to continue. More fighting is expected around $48-50K in Bitcoin, but shouldn‘t affect Ethereum all that much. SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

August Starts Illy for Gold. Could September Change Anything?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.08.2021 15:14
The WGC believes that gold will shine in September. Given the whole context, I’m not so sure – in fact, not sure at all.Following three previous reports, the WGC revealed two more interesting publications at the turn of July and August. The first one is the report about gold demand trends in Q2 2021. As we can read, the demand for gold was virtually flat in Q2 (y-o-y), but in the first half of the year it decreased 10.4%. Importantly, there were modest inflows into gold ETFs in Q2 and also in July, but they only partially offset the huge outflows of the previous quarter. Hence, investors’ sentiment turned more positive in the second quarter, which helped gold prices rebound somewhat after Q1.Indeed, as the chart below shows, the price of gold plunged 10% in Q1 2021. Then, it rebounded 4.3% in the second quarter, but it was not enough to offset the blow from the first three months of the year. In July, the price of gold jumped 3.6%, although it retraced most of that increase in August (it decreased 2.1% in a single day – Aug. 6). So, gold prices declined more than 6% year-to-date.Unfortunately, there is potential for further declines. After strong July’s nonfarm payrolls, the Fed has no excuses not to start tapering of its quantitative easing. What’s more, the current levels of the real interest rates are very low, so they are likely to normalize somewhat later this year.The second WGC publication is the newest edition of the Gold Market Commentary entitled Equity yields support gold as investors position for historical September strength. The main thesis of the article is that “August could be the opportune time to position for the historically strong September gold performance”. Well, given last week’s plunge in gold prices, this suggestion looks rather amusing, but who knows? There is plenty of time until September, which is historically quite positive for gold.The justification for this thesis is two-fold. First, central banks focus now more on employment than inflation, which could prolong tapering activity. It’s true that the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle will be very gradual, and the Fed’s balance sheet (as well as the federal funds rate) won’t probably return to the pre-pandemic levels. However, it’s also true that the Fed has already started the tapering clock and will likely tighten its monetary policy somewhat this year. This is what the markets are pricing in, and such expectations boost the real interest rates and create downward pressure on gold prices.Second, the S&P 500’s real yield (i.e., companies’ earnings yield plus the dividend yield minus inflation) has turned negative, which reduces the opportunity costs of holding gold. Well, the equity market looks overbought, but with low interest rates, high inflation and the Fed always ready to reach out a helping hand, investors may continue to flow into this market.Implications for GoldWhat can we learn from the recent World Gold Council reports? Well, just like the WGC, I’m bullish on gold in the long run, but I’m more bearish in the shorter timeframe. In other words, I believe that gold may go down first before it rallies again. September is a historically good month for gold, but this year it might also be the month when the Fed announces the start of the tapering of its asset purchases. The hawkish Fed would push bond yields higher and strengthen the dollar, sending the price of the yellow metal down in the short-to-medium term.Luckily, an abrupt taper tantrum similar to the one from 2013 is not likely to happen again. Moreover, a bit later either the post-tightening recession or inflation running out of control could make gold shine again. After all, inflation is well above the Fed’s target, while the real yields will likely remain negative for a long period. These factors should provide support for gold over a longer horizon, but investors shouldn’t downplay the upcoming tightening cycle and rising interest rates.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
FBS Becomes Principal Partner of Leicester City

FBS Becomes Principal Partner of Leicester City

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 12.08.2021 16:25
FBS, an international trading company, signed a partnership agreement with Leicester City Football Club. The partnership commemorates the mutual vision of the two teams by harnessing the growing strength of Leicester City’s story to showcase the unique capabilities of FBS to transform the way the world invests and to make investing in financial markets accessible to everyone. In August 2021, FBS international trading company and Leicester City Football Club, 2021 FA Cup and Community Shield winners, officially launched their partnership following the ceremonial signing of the three-year partnership agreement between FBS’ CEO Yulia Ivanova and Leicester City’s CEO Susan Whelan, which was held online due to the ongoing pandemic. Yulia Ivanova, FBS’ Chief Executive Officer, said: “We are delighted and very proud to become a principal partner of Leicester City Football Club. Leicester City is a very talented and ambitious team, as we are. So together, we are excited about a very successful partnership. We believe that Leicester City will continue to excel on-and-off the pitch and to make their fans proud, and FBS clients, as usual, will continue to get the best service, comfortable, and up-to-date trading solutions. We want to empower people to fulfill their dreams and enjoy their lives because FBS is always by your side.” Susan Whelan, Leicester City’s Chief Executive Officer, said: “This three-year partnership is a marvellous new chapter in  Leicester City’s history. We’re proud to collaborate with such an ambitious and fast-developing top trading company as FBS. Together, we have an opportunity to engage and inspire our fans and our communities – both locally and on a global scale. We’re looking forward to exciting times ahead together!” The partnership between one of the trading industry leaders and one of England’s top football clubs creates further opportunities for people globally. Any person, whether a fan, trader, or investor, can benefit from different activities, joint events, and gifts, including the home game tickets and merchandise. After 12 years in the market, FBS has grown its solid ecosystem of convenient and accessible investment and trading solutions. Their innovative and client-oriented approach to service, marked by more than 60 international awards, has already attracted over 17 million clients from almost all countries, including Thailand, England, India, Brazil, China. Leicester City have created a global community of fans spanning cultures and continents following their famous Premier League win in 2015/16 and FA Cup in 2021, making the club an ideal fit for FBS. The partnership will enable the club to continue to improve and grow while enhancing the profile of both the Club and FBS around the world.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Struggles For Support

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 13.08.2021 09:46
GBPUSD fails to break higherThe sterling inched lower after the NIESR GDP estimate for the past three months fell short of expectations.The rally above the daily resistance at 1.3890 may have saved the pound’s 17-month long rally. Though the combination of overextension and lack of support in the short-term may prolong the retracement.The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area may lead to a limited rebound.The bulls will need to lift 1.3890 in order to reverse gears. Otherwise, a breach below 1.3770 may send the pair to 1.3600.NZDUSD tests key supportThe New Zealand dollar finds support after a rise in RBNZ inflation expectations in Q3.The kiwi has built several layers of support above the key level of 0.6900 with the latest one at 0.6990. This is an indication that buyers are willing to bid up the price.After a hiatus at the resistance at 0.7060, the RSI has dropped back to the neutral area to give the bulls a chance to make another push. The narrowing range would culminate in a breakout-raising momentum in the process.SPX 500 surges to new highThe S&P 500 continues to climb as weekly jobless claims meet estimates.A series of higher highs suggests that the bullish sentiment is still intact. 4480 would be the next stop as momentum traders jump in. The RSI has broken into the overbought territory, which could temper buyers’ fever to raise their stakes.The index may look to consolidate its gains after a new all-time high. 4440 is fresh support in case of retracement. 4425 near the upper band of the previous consolidation range would be the second line of defense.
Silver, the value price spread

Silver, the value price spread

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.08.2021 13:39
The value regarding a concerning future is more represented in prices for gold and silver stocks, which weren’t as dramatically affected as they are in more meaningful selloffs. We also encourage the reader to google 1-ounce coins or 100 oz bars of Silver on eBay to find physical acquisition prices not to be reduced as they should be. For 17 months, the spread between physical and spot price in Silver is now present. This means buyers are willing to purchase at an exuberantly higher premium than the paper price.With no indications of fundamental reasoning that justifies paper prices going down, we find risk reduction to our physical holdings. Risk being our most dominant concern is as such more to the side this being a spread between value and price, and as such, we have added to our exposure on a physical level finding this to be a buying opportunity.Looking at trading “paper precious metals prices”, either exuberant emotions of traders and/or price manipulation I present. Hence, we still see a pretty risky environment. While we see a possibility of even lower price levels, such trading behavior is temporary. Typically, extreme states are short-lived.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Don’t get rattled:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 13th, 2021.The debate about the possibility of market manipulation in the precious metal sector is exhausting, to say the least. While we understand a possible frustration of market participants this to be the cause for losses, it is yet another reason for emotional behavior in market participation which we extremely discourage no matter the reason for triggering. Emotional behavior does principle-based find no place in market play. It clouds the mind and limits the ability for proper trade execution.Gold is the big brother to Silver and is used as a barometer for the health of a nation. It makes Gold political and should be reason enough to find possible strong forces to influence such a barometer. But this should still be irrelevant to the principles on how one allocates money in speculative spot price plays.Keeping one’s emotions in check is one of the best ways to ensure a chance of a positive outcome on a series of one’s bets.The daily chart shows that last Friday’s price action was the precursor setup for the exuberant move when Asian markets opened for the week. Friday’s close (see 1) at the day’s lows, after a strong down trending day near a significant supply zone (see2), weakened this support. It took little pressure to open the flood gates for a self-perpetuating motion. A chain of stops got triggered when markets opened for the week. Once the rubber band was stretched, we had a quick V-shaped bounce for most of the previous down move.This down move was followed by the typical small range indecision sideways day. Prices advanced modestly on Wednesday and again sold on Thursday. It is now the focal point to follow price behavior for a possible retest near the week’s lows zone.We are looking for a possible aggressive entry on a half-size position size. But we will only expose capital if a supply zone is hit with speed to take advantage of an action/reaction principle. Should the price steadily but slowly decline, we will not engage in the markets from a long perspective. Daily Chart, Gold in US-Dollar, Silver relatively weak:Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 13th, 2021.Another reason why we are relatively conservative in taking a long position right now in Silver is its relative weakness towards Gold.A look at the daily chart of Gold above reveals that the price bounce within this week was nearly double as strong as the one of Silver (see 1/2). Gold’s price decline on Thursday was also a lot more modest. As such, we are not in a hurry to expose capital. We rather trade a possible turning point reactionary after price confirmation.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Silver, the value price spread:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 13th, 2021.But it isn’t our concern at this point, where speculative short-term entries on spot price trading in Silver are to be determined. What we want to point out is the value stretch. An extreme example would be the fact, that one ounce of silver is enough to feed a family of five for 38 days in Venezuela right now (equaling 3.8 million Bolivars). It is foolish and extreme to argue, “oh well, this is in Venezuela, and something like this could never happen where I live.” Moderate, which in our opinion is the way to go, is thinking in insurance terms and low-risk opportunities to purchase such an insurance, Silver.The larger weekly time frame already indicates that we might be at an entry opportunity for just such a positioning of physical Silver for a long-term wealth preservation perspective.Prices have held a bit above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Recent price low extremes are within the last thirteen months’ sideways range extremes from US$21.66 to US$30.14. With the relative weakness divergence to Gold, a decline towards a 50% retracement level would spell “opportunity” to us. In general, from a large time frame perspective of a multi-year hold, physical silver acquisitions at spot price levels here, irrespective of the premium to be paid, seem decent to us in the entry range between US$20.70 to $23.75.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The big picture counts:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 13th, 2021.Where clarity cements itself is on the monthly timeframe. One can make out how substantial the move up from last year’s lows at US$11.64 was. On top, the price retracement from this year’s highs is proportionally harmonious. Most likely it’s nothing, but just taking a breath before the possibility of a trend continuation.Supportive to this bullish picture are two significant fractal volume analysis support zones (1,2), right below current price levels (see histogram to the right of the chart).Silver, the value price spread:It is essential to differentiate market speculation and wealth preservation regarding engagement into the silver markets.We do not claim to have a crystal ball to see clearly into the future. Still, when joggling with numbers, it is hard to believe a statement that all is honky dory. That the economy is sound, and that Federal Reserve policy and money printing aren’t having any adverse effect.We have seen irrational trader behavior over and over again. With the ego’s domain on insisting on being right and a lack of accepting responsibility for losing trades, emotions get out of hand pretty quickly. Minds cannot find reasons for prices declining. Promptly a dam can break, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is in motion. We urge you not to participate in further confusing, more emotion triggering mental debates. Avoid letting rage run rapidly. Value price spread opportunities cease to exist for those individuals tied in emotional frictions and frustrations. Take a step back and examine sound fundamental reasoning for your longer-term holdings and extended multiple-decade wealth preservation opportunities.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 13th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Connection: When Gold Rises, Will Bitcoin Fall?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.08.2021 15:41
What do the portents say? Well, we’ve been looking for connections between gold and bitcoin, and we see a chance to fatten the coffers. Read on.But first, let’s talk about gold and the miners. Yesterday’s session provided us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish case in the precious metals sector for the short term.The reason is that what happened was bearish in two ways:Nothing happened in goldDaily declines in mining stocksShort Term: Miners Still Looking WeakFirst, the decline in mining stocks. A price action following a confirmed breakdown was exactly what I expected to happen to both junior miners and senior miners.Senior miners – the GDX ETF – declined after verifying the breakdown below the neck level of the head and shoulders pattern.Junior miners – the GDXJ ETF – declined after verifying the breakdown to new yearly lows.Both are very bearish on their own as the confirmed breakdowns imply that another – bigger – short-term slide is about to start.But they are even more bearish when compared to what happened in gold.Nothing happened in the case of the gold price, which means that miners had no good reason to decline yesterday. Well, except for the reason that they have been in a medium-term downtrend and due to myriads of technical reasons that I discussed previously. However, on a day-to-day basis, since gold didn’t move, miners shouldn’t have moved either, if their outlook was at least neutral.Their outlook, however, is not neutral. It’s clearly bearish as they showed weakness relative to gold. What just happened is the exact opposite of what one should see at or after an important bottom – at that time gold stocks should outperform gold.Consequently, the precious metals sector is likely to slide shortly, and profits from our short positions in the junior miners are likely to increase sooner rather than later.That’s as far as the short-term implications are concerned.Gold and Bitcoin: What’s in It for Me?There is something else that I’d like to share with you today, though. I previously wrote that there’s a tendency for gold and bitcoin to move in the opposite directions in the short run, despite that they both moved higher in the long term – since 2014. I wrote that I’ll get back to this topic at some later date – and that day is today.The upper part of the above chart features gold (regular colors) and bitcoin (blue), and the lower part of the chart features the USD Index.At first glance, the performance of gold and bitcoin doesn’t seem to be that connected, besides the fact that they both moved higher in recent years. However, taking a closer look reveals that the link between them is not only present, but it’s actually quite strong.I used the vertical, dashed lines to mark the moments when gold formed short-term bottoms and when bitcoin responded with declines. There were multiple cases like that! What’s remarkable is that even if bitcoin was soaring, it managed to correct a bit when gold was regaining strength. There were also some cases when bitcoin did nothing after gold’s bottom, but the moments when bitcoin ignored gold’s bottom and just continued to rally were rare.I marked the first two (2014) cases with bold lines as that’s when the USD Index had been rallying particularly strongly. Since it seems that the USDX is starting a sizable upswing, these analogies might be most important.Bitcoin declined in 2014 and the decline took the form of two smaller declines. One of them started close to the middle of the year (practically right at the vertical line) and the second started in the final few months of the year. What is most interesting, is that both bitcoin declines started when gold was forming short-term bottoms.Bitcoin has been on the rise in the last several days, and given what we saw in gold – and in light of the above-discussed link – it’s perfectly normal, since gold has been declining (the recent pause seems too small to trigger any price moves). But most importantly, it tells us that when gold rebounds, it could be bitcoin’s chance to slide.The 2014 decline might not seem like a big deal on the above chart, but that is only due to the perspective. When you look at the prices (the axis on the left side of the chart), you’ll see that bitcoin actually declined from about $600 to about $150. In other words, its price was reduced fourfold. That’s a huge decline. And a huge opportunity for those who are able to see it in advance.This might or might not provide us with a great shorting opportunity in case of bitcoin, when gold rebounds (likely close to the previous 2021 lows), increasing this year’s profits, but it’s too early to say so with certainty at this time. I’ll keep looking for confirmations and I’ll report accordingly.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Fresh Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.08.2021 16:13
Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and new ones growing today.The countdown to the Jackson Hole is on though, with the Fed practically having to do something – something in all likelihood face saving only as the record deficit spending gives it little to no maneuvering room.Again, today’s report will be shorter than usual, and focus on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBroader base advance across the S&P 500 has lifted the 500-strong index, but the credit markets show short-term confirmation only. The air is getting thinner but bulls don‘t mind yet.Credit MarketsCredit markets‘ modest turn continues, and on even lower volume than was the case on Wednesday, which is a little suspicious but at least quality corporate debt is joining in this fragile rally.Gold, Silver and MinersDaily pause in gold, with the miners‘ weakness looking a bit too deceptive to me. The recovery from Friday and Monday‘s smackdowns is likely to go on as the inflation expectations and real yields provide fresh support again. Or does anyone expect high yields with such budget deficits? The market will wake up from giving the Fed the misguided benefit of the (inflation fighter) doubt.Crude OilOil has repelled intraday selling while the oil sector was more or less stable. The only question it seems is whether we would have to face another dip before the upswing slowly but surely resumes.CopperCopper was rejected, but only temporarily in my view – the commodity index is merely stalling, and that‘s a bullish sign given the PPI data increasing pressure on the Fed to act.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto pause is over, and bulls can go on extending gains – the signs of the bullish strength returning are materializing as we speak.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – Dax Sees Bullish Acceleration

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 16.08.2021 10:27
GER 30 rises along trendlineThe Dax 30 soared to a new all-time high backed by a strong earnings season.The rally is in full swing after a break above the previous peak at 15810. The index is climbing along a rising trendline since late July. The price has gone vertical and suggests an acceleration in the bullish momentum.A repeatedly overbought RSI indicates an overextension. A limited pullback would help the bulls catch their breath.15850 on the trendline is a key support should this happen. Then a rebound would lift the index to 16100.USDJPY seeks supportThe Japanese yen strengthens on upbeat GDP growth in Q2.The pair is looking for support after a close above the daily resistance at 110.60. This is an indication that the medium-term rally may resume.A pullback is necessary however after the RSI showed exhaustion. Analysts can expect buying interest at the psychological level of 109.00. An oversold RSI would make this a congestion area and prompt the bulls to buy the dip.109.70 is a fresh resistance ahead. A bullish breakout would lead to 110.50.XAGUSD bounces above resistanceSilver claws back losses as US Treasury yields remain flat on mixed US data.Price action has so far found support above the psychological level of 23.00.The RSI has risen back to the neutral area as traders bought the dip in an attempt to reverse course. However, the bearish mood would prevail as long as the metal stays under 24.35, the last leg of sell-off.A rebound may meet strong selling interest from trend followers. A fall below the said support would send the price to November’s low at 22.00.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Gold: The General Left Alone

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.08.2021 15:15
Gold commanded its unit to make another raid only to find itself stranded. The gold miners had already fled as fugitives, retreating without orders.The Gold MinersWhile gold shrugged off the Aug. 8 ‘flash crash’ and bounced back above its June lows, the yellow metal’s renewed sense of swagger hasn’t been mimicked by its precious metals peers. For example, while gold ended the week up by 0.86%, the GDXJ ETF (our short position) ended the week down by 1.72%.Please see below:Furthermore, while gold jumped by roughly $15 last week, the HUI Index declined by five index points. And with the bearish underperformance often a precursor to profound medium-term drawdowns, the precious metals are behaving like its 2012-2013. Last week is yet another confirmation of the analogy.Case in point: after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff.Please see below:To explain, can you see the HUI’s rally at the end of 2012 that followed a small buy signal from the stochastic indicator? I marked it with a purple, dashed line. No? That’s because it’s been practically nonexistent. The HUI Index moved higher by so little that it’s impossible to see it from the long-term point of view. On top of that, with the shape of gold’s recent price action, its RSI, and its MACD indicators all mirroring the bearish signals that we witnessed back in December 2012, the current setup signals that we’re likely headed for a similar swoon.For context, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:(…) gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for the gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.And why is this quote so important? Well, because the bearish phenomenon still remains intact. As mentioned, with gold rising by roughly $15 and the HUI Index declining by about five index points, the bearish underperformance is accelerating. Precisely, something similar happened during the week beginning on July 6. The gold price rallied by $27.40, and the HUI Index declined by 1.39. As a result, with the HUI Index’s ominous signals still present, if history rhymes (as it tends to), medium-term support will likely materialize in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.In addition, the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, bearish head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.Furthermore, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.As further evidence, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the senior miners (GDX) are in the midst of forming an ominous bear flag and the volume that accompanied Friday’s (Aug. 13) corrective upswing was relatively weak and it declined while the flag pattern was formed – just as it should if the formation was valid.Conversely, the GDX ETF did invalidate the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern (which is a bullish sign). However, the GDXJ ETF did not. And with the junior miners’ initial plunge (the pole) implying a continuation of the downtrend (following a consolidation that forms the flag), there are more indicators weighing down the gold miners than lifting them up.Please see below:Wave the Flag! The Bear Flag!Speaking of the GDXJ ETF, not only are the junior miners lagging behind their senior counterparts, but the four-hour chart provides a clear visual of the initial breakdown and the formation of the current bear flag.Please see below:The flag is perfect, and it took place on relatively declining volume, suggesting that another move will also be to the downside. After all, the moves that follow flags tend to be similar to the ones that preceded them.The price levels at which the flag was formed are also very important, and it’s clearer on the daily chart.Junior miners broke below the previous 2021 lows, and they held this breakdown, even though gold rallied quite visibly last week. This serves as a great confirmation that the move lower is about to take place.And how should we expect the climax to unfold? Last week, I wrote the following:Well, the GDXJ ETF may consolidate in the short term, but lower lows are still likely, and initial support should materialize at roughly $37 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Thereafter, a short-term corrective upswing should follow before the GDXJ ETF reverses course once again and records its final bottom near the end of the year – at much, much lower price levels. All in all, it seems that our profits on the GDXJ (short position in it) are going to become MUCH bigger before this decline is over.The above remains up-to-date. In fact, we already saw the short-term consolidation last week, so the decline could resume any day now.In conclusion, the gold miners’ continued underperformance of the yellow metal is akin to a fire alarm signaling an impending blaze. And while many investors have forged through the smoke in 2021 and suffered a loss of breath in the process, our medium-term forecast does not change our outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks over the long term. With the trio underpinned by robust long-term fundamentals and their medium-term drawdowns likely to elicit secular buying opportunities, we’re confident that the precious metals will remain atop investors’ wish lists for years to come.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

The Long Shadow Over Reflation Trades

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.08.2021 16:13
Consumer confidence undershoot didn‘t bring down stocks as the retreat in yields (away from the reflation trades) didn‘t spook value stocks, and only lifted tech. It‘s true that XLK isn‘t firing on all cylinders, and the semiconductors‘ lag is just as concerning as Russell 2000 underperformance – so much for explaining the risks in stocks. But as I wrote on Friday:(…) Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and growing today.Regarding the taper noises many Fed speakers made during the week (it isn‘t just about Dallas), some form of taper looks indeed coming, even though they would have a hard time pulling it off against decelerating economy and massive fresh spending. Mission impossible if you will. Still, they make the appearance of wanting to try – wouldn‘t tanking markets and fresh calls to do something be a perfect excuse to expanding balance sheet solidly again? But they must at least internally in the Eccles building understand that a move against inflation is long overdue, and perhaps a repetition of June FOMC wouldn‘t do the trick this time.Again, today’s report will be shorter than usual, and focus on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTech continues catching up with value overall holding ground, and that means S&P 500 is ever so slightly ahead over Nasdaq these days. But once another phase of rising yields returns, look for the divergence between the two to reappear.Credit MarketsCredit markets upturn continues, and on lowest volume in recent months – suspicious, but not enough given the lackluster moves elsewhere. Bond performance was still positive for stocks‘ fragile rally.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners‘ weakness that I wrote about on Friday, was indeed deceptive. The yellow metal surged higher, surpassed only by silver (the white metal was the odd one out with its Thursday‘s fake weakness). What a welcome bullish turn of events driven by retreating dollar and nominal yields, with the weakening consumer confidence casting a shadow over the economy too.Crude OilOn one hand, crude oil decline on lower volume is less credible, on the other hand, the oil sector fell even more. Sideways trading in black gold looks set to continue (closer to $60 than $80 within the range I mentioned lately), but I look for it to be eventually resolved with an upswing.CopperCopper upswing was again rejected, and the commodity index went nowhere. Still, the red metal managed to rise on the week – no small feat given the creeping doubts about where the real economy‘s growth path is headed.Bitcoin and EthereumSome more base building in cryptos, and encouragingly it‘s above the 200-day moving average in Bitcoin while Ethereum isn‘t weak. The benefit of the doubt is still with the bulls.SummaryIn place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Your low-risk option is Bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.08.2021 11:42
Bitcoins low risk from a trading perspective:Short-term traders appreciate volatility. Bitcoin is liquid and not choppy. A long-term trader’s biggest fear is six sigma events. Consequently, any time the market is closed, more significant holdings are at risk of surprising news resulting in gap openings. Professionals go as far as to close out positions that are not in the green yet on a Friday after a trend-down day. The statistical fact is that on Mondays, market reopening, the downtrend is likely to continue. We have just recently witnessed that phenomenon in the flash crash of the gold market. They cannot take such weekend risks easily. With bitcoin trading 24/7, it is a much risk-reduced investment tool.Bitcoins low risk from a fundamental perspective:Any centralized instrument is attack-able. May it be by technology or legislative. We had times of gold being confiscated, even illegal to own.In the recent trading behavior of the precious metal sector, we can see that it might not be wise to put all your eggs in the golden basket alone.Bitcoin/Gold comparison, Weekly Chart, Bitcoins relative strength towards Gold:Bitcoin/Gold comparison, weekly chart as of August 17th, 2021.Like with everything else, it is wise nevertheless to keep an eye out for a few pitfalls. One of them being a misrepresentation of bitcoin measuring against a fiat currency. With fiat currency losing value, it is more accurate to compare against gold. The chart above shows how bitcoin gained strength towards gold and, as such, notoriety in its value.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Adapting to hurdles:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 17th, 2021.Another essential part of keeping bitcoin your low-risk wealth preservation of choice is adapting to its unique trading features. Bitcoin is deceiving with its significant retracements-grabbing stops for those too greedy, and once it turned it is hard to get in as bitcoin speedily advances steeply. What is essential here for the trader is not to be insisting on a time frame, but rather be on the lookout for a variety of time frames to find low-risk entry spots and profit-taking target zones.It typically remedies what we call the emotional yo-yo effect. Market participants feel at ease when the bitcoin market declines to say to themselves: “I knew bitcoin isn’t worth a thing.” Days/weeks later, when bitcoin turned sharply and advances steeply, they find themselves in a state of a feeling of “missing out” in disbelief of the significant move they just missed.The daily chart above illustrates bitcoins behavior in this aspect—quick steep advances represented in Heikin-Ashi charting format (color green). In addition, we can see on the standard deviation cloud indicator how bitcoin is compared to most other instruments, able to be suspended to extreme deviation for extended periods. The last turning point up produced a sixty-four percent move up in less than a month.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Prepping the trade:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 17th, 2021.In our last chart book published, we posted a chart with various likely future price movement scenarios. Now, we are expecting a high likelihood of the second scenario of A (white line) to unfold. The daily chart above describes this scenario from last week now in more detail.We enter a low-risk entry, at the supply zone of US$39,450 to US$41,240. The fractal volume support zone is only of interest to us, with prices declining from tops between US$50,875 to US$47,230. Your low-risk option is Bitcoin:Bitcoin, which by the way, is not that young of a market anymore, gets a low rap also because it caused a whole movement of other seemingly decentralized altcoins. At the mass internet adoption, we have seen a similar effect with penny stocks that went to zero, giving fuel to critics. Thirty years later, we do not have to ask you if the internet itself is of value. We see the first steps in motion of a mass adoption of bitcoin as well. Your risk is now listening to critics’ unfounded doubts over facts that point clearly to a future with a very high probability of bitcoin taking a central role in the financial market worldwide.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 17th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.08.2021 15:45
No, it‘s not about stocks, however well they hang on to recent gains. ATHs hit again amid recovering corporate credit markets, with both tech and value contributing. Value though was looking more vulnerable going into yesterday‘s session, and just one look at financials or energy confirms that – in the world of question marks over high pace of economic growth, it‘s the Fed that‘s between a rock and hard place.On one hand, they have stubborn and quickening inflation to deal with (or pretend to deal with through the FOMC, the federal open mouth committee) – getting ahead of the curve means serious tightening (okay, first getting less loose monetarily, which is what taper is about). Given China‘s slowdown and corresponding U.S. figures projected, it would be a tall order to turn off the spigot into a weakening (but still growing) economy – that has potential to trigger quite a correction in stocks and risk-on assets. Note copper and oil paring recent gains, and going largely sideways for weeks – not rolling over, but the light is amber, irrespective of the infrastructure bill.On the other hand, if the central bank does nothing, inflation would grow even more entrenched, sinking the stock market and economy over time, anyway. Don‘t forget about the massive spending – the Fed turning restrictive isn‘t the math favored outcome here.Bond yields aren‘t squeezing the Fed‘s hand – the market is paying more attention to growth than inflation at the moment. And that means headwinds for the reflation and commodity trades as these would find rising rates more conducive. Copper to gold ratio is seeing every spike sold since June, underlining the tug of war between the prospects of economy roaring ahead vs. hunkering down.In such an environment of uncertainty, gold is the winner – just as I summarized it yesterday:(…) Regarding the taper noises many Fed speakers made during the week (it isn‘t just about Dallas), some form of taper looks indeed coming, even though they would have a hard time pulling it off against decelerating economy and massive fresh spending. Mission impossible if you will. Still, they make the appearance of wanting to try – wouldn‘t tanking markets and fresh calls to do something be a perfect excuse to expanding balance sheet solidly again? But they must at least internally in the Eccles building understand that a move against inflation is long overdue, and perhaps a repetition of June FOMC wouldn‘t do the trick this time.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAgainst all odds euphemistically said, the slow grind higher in stocks continues, with tech getting momentarily a little stronger than value. Volume is so far still behind the upswing – regardless of what the VIX and put/call ratio look like, the bulls aren‘t yet challenged.Credit MarketsCredit markets upturn continues, but not before having to repel heavy selling at the open. The chart offers no warning signs for the bulls at the moment, with the exception of risk-on optimism being vulnerable to a suddent souring that would hit many advancing stocks hard. Financials weakness yesterday is a watchout reflective of Treasury yields path.Gold, Silver and MinersGiven the growth fears sentiment of the moment, miners‘ underperformance is more understandable – the yellow metal is set to do well in such circumstances. Silver weakness reflects select commodities such as copper getting under pressure, which equals risk-off undercurrents.Crude OilEnergy stocks do a little worse in such an environment, making the daily oil resilience a temporarily good sign – one that I wouldn‘t read too much into for now as the volume isn‘t consistent with a budding reversal.CopperLikewise in copper, the modest rebound off the lows isn‘t convincing – there are no signs of heavy buying thus far, making the local bottom still elusive.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto base building goes on, and the recent price action remains positive for the bulls.SummaryWhile the risk of a correction in stocks grows, in many commodities it‘s already here. The decelerating economy as evidenced by today‘s retail sales, is lifting primarily gold, and isn‘t any obstacle to cryptos just yet – the dollar isn‘t biting and yields remain range bound, therefore I look for inflation trades to eventually return to strength.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold Rallies on Softening Inflation. What’s Going On?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.08.2021 17:17
Inflation softened slightly in July and gold prices rose, but the bullish joy may be premature. How should we respond?Inflation eased a bit in July, but it remained disturbingly high. According to the latest BLS report on inflation, the CPI increased 0.5% in July after rising 0.9% in June. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also softened, as it rose 0.3% in July after increasing 0.9% in June. The deceleration was mainly caused by a much smaller advance in the index for used cars, which increased only 0.2% (it was 10.5% in June).However, on an annual basis, inflation practically stayed unchanged since June, as the chart below shows. The overall index surged 5.4% for the second month in a row (on a seasonally unadjusted basis), while the core CPI soared 4.3%, following a 4.5% jump in the previous month.So, at first glance, it seems that inflation has peaked. This might be true, but please notice that it remained disturbingly high despite the deceleration in several subindexes, including the index for used cars. I dread to think what would be if these categories didn’t moderate!What’s more, the producer price index for final demand rose 1% in July (MoM) and 7.8% over the past 12 months, as one can see in the chart below. It was the largest advance since the 12-month data was first calculated in November 2010. Part of this increase could be passed on to consumers later, as companies have recently gained more ability to lift prices seeing weak resistance to price increases.Additionally, the index for shelter – the biggest component of the CPI, not hit by the pandemic as strongly as restaurants and hotels industries – has been rising gradually since February 2021, and it has accelerated to 2.8% in July. Last but not least, the US Senate passed Biden’s infrastructure plan, which could also add something to the inflationary pressure by an increase in the money supply. All these developments suggest that inflation isn’t going away just yet.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent inflation report imply for the gold market? Well, theoretically, softer inflation should be negative for gold, which is seen as an inflation hedge and which historically shined during periods of high and accelerating inflation.However, as the chart below shows, the price of gold has rebounded somewhat from last week’s low, gaining about $50 from Tuesday to Friday. It seems that steady (and partially below expectations) inflation gives the Fed room to maintain its ultra-dovish monetary policy. Indeed, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the expectations for the Fed’s tightening cycle have diminished slightly from the previous week, which supported gold prices.However, a bullish hurray might be premature. Inflation is still high and significantly above the Fed’s target. Inflation expectations remain elevated, and some measures even increased slightly in July. Unfortunately, markets seem not to worry significantly about inflation any longer, and the stock market continues its rally.Even if inflation really softens later this year, which is likely given that some supply disruptions will probably resolve, it shouldn’t suddenly dive below 2%. So, the July report shouldn’t materially change the Fed’s stance, especially that the US central bank focuses more on the labor market now. Hence, gold investors should brace themselves for the upcoming tapering of quantitative easing.However, just as day comes after night, upward waves come after bearish trends. The most likely macroeconomic scenario is that inflation will remain high, while the economic growth will slow down, which means stagflation. Indeed, the downward trend in the bond yields – despite high inflation – could signal weak growth, requiring dovish monetary policies. If history is any guide, gold will shine during stagflation.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – NZD Sees Bearish Whipsaws

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 18.08.2021 09:49
NZDUSD tests major supportThe New Zealand dollar struggles as the RBNZ postpones its rate hike against expectations.The pair had failed to push above the supply area near 0.7100 from the daily chart. The RSI’s double top was a sign of overextension.The sell-off below the psychological level of 0.7000 and then 0.6960 indicates that sentiment has turned sour. A recovering RSI could be an opportunity to sell into strength.A break below 0.6890 may extend the sell-off towards 0.6700. 0.7030 is the first resistance in case of a rebound.AUDUSD falls through supportThe Australian dollar fell after the RBA minutes tempered the taper optimism amid COVID-19 restrictions.The pair has been under pressure at the 20-day moving average. The drop below 0.7290 may have resumed the downtrend after a four-week-long consolidation.Strong bearish momentum is an indication of high turnover between buyers bailing out and sellers piling in. 0.7170 would be the next target. The key resistance at 0.7340 will likely cap a limited rebound, while the RSI climbs from the oversold area.XAUUSD rises to key resistanceGold extended its recovery supported by a retreat in US Treasury yields.The price has recouped most losses from the previous sharp liquidation. A break above the intermediary resistance at 1762 has confirmed strong buying interest.Buyers will need to close above the origin of the firesale and the psychological level of 1800 to seal the deal in their favor. Then 1830 would be the last hurdle before a full-blown reversal.A repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback with 1755 as key support.
Ignorance Always Backfires. Pay Attention to Gold Miners!

Ignorance Always Backfires. Pay Attention to Gold Miners!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.08.2021 14:33
The junior mining stocks’ extreme underperformance is the “new normal” that barely anyone talks about. Ignorance is pleasant, but it comes at a cost.To be clear: it’s something very important right now. Juniors, as well as senior mining stocks, are very weak compared to gold, which means that they are not reacting to gold’s gains but multiplying gold’s declines instead. This doesn’t just mean that the profits on our short positions in juniors are increasing almost constantly – it also means that the entire precious metals sector is about to fall much further. This kind of underperformance preceded the 2013 slide, and we haven’t seen it – to this extent – in years. This is huge.Junior gold miners – the GDXJ ETF – just moved to new 2021 lows after completing a flag pattern. This is bearish not only on its own but especially when compared to what gold did.And gold….Gold moved just $2 lower yesterday. This near-nothing was enough to trigger a breakdown to new lows in the related sector – junior mining stocks. Gold junior miners’ current performance is truly one of the weakest that I’ve ever seen.And just imagine what horrors await the prices of the mining stocks if a mere $2 decline in gold was enough to trigger a breakdown to new lows. And gold seems to be about to slide once again!Now, based on the triangle-vertex-based reversal that’s due on Monday, it could be the case that gold waits a bit before sliding. However, given the similarity to how it declined in the first quarter of the year, it seems that the top in gold is either in or at hand.I explained the similarity to Q1 before, but here’s a quick recap.After declining sharply (January and June) and forming a double bottom with the second bottom slightly lower, it then corrected half of the decline forming more than one top close to the 50% retracement and then declined sharply once again.Back in February 2021, gold corrected about 76.4% of the decline (which is a less popular but still a Fibonacci retracement level – marked with blue). Right now, this retracement is just below the $1,800 mark. So, if history rhymes once again, gold will be likely to move close to $1,800 and then decline once again.I’ve recently been asked to compare the performance of the 10-year yields and gold on one chart and to comment on them.There are a couple of interesting things that the 10-year-yield chart and gold can tell us.One of them is that when the ROC (rate of change) indicator based on the yields rallies above 50, it tends to correspond to medium-term bottoms in gold. This happened 3 times in the past 40+ years, and it worked in each case. This is likely to be important in a couple of months, but it's not that relevant today.Another interesting feature is that, overall, gold has not been performing well relative to the long-term yields. Between 2001 and 2011, gold was performing very well relative to yields – soaring when the yields were declining. However, that has not been the case since late 2012. Sure, gold managed to briefly move above its 2011 highs before invalidating the breakout and declining, but please compare how huge a decline in yields it took to trigger this move.The decline in rates that made gold more than double its price from the 2008 bottom was relatively small (from ~2% to about ~1.5%). And the decline in yields from 1.5% in mid-2019 to about 0.5% in mid-2020 made gold increase its value by “only” 1/3. Again – a decade ago it took half a percentage point to make gold double, and now it took a full percentage point to make gold increase its value by only 1/3. Sure, 1/3 of gold’s price is a lot on a nominal level, but when compared to doubling its value, it’s much smaller. And when compared with the size of the moves in rates, it turns out that gold was now about 6 times less inclined to rally when the rates declined.This seems bearish for gold at first glance, and it is such in reality.The final observation is the most concrete and the most actionable. As I described in my previous gold trading analyses, what we are seeing now in gold is very similar to what we saw in 2012-2013, and the above-mentioned super-weak performance of gold stocks confirms it.What’s very interesting is that after gold’s final top and yield’s final bottom (mid-2012), the yields rallied, and then they corrected to more or less their 50-week moving average. And when that was taking place, gold moved close to their previous lows (that was before the biggest part of the plunge).Why would the above be very interesting? Because gold is also after a corrective upswing and the yields are after a corrective downswing that took them to more or less their 50-week moving average. If history rhymes, it seems that we’re about to see another big move higher in the rates and another big move lower in the price of gold.The Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole and the news coming from it could trigger the above-mentioned moves. The September FOMC is another candidate. Then again, since markets are forward-looking, any piece of news that could hint at the upcoming tapering could trigger the moves. That’s what the weak performance of gold juniors vs. gold tells us – the market is ready to slide, and when the trigger comes is not that important. In fact, the precious metals market is likely to decline even without a specific news-based trigger.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Taper Tantrum a Week Before Jackson Hole

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.08.2021 17:16
Stocks have recovered off the intraday lows yesterday, in what is one of the less severe battles of the unfolding taper tantrum – commodities such as copper and oil bear the brunt thereof, which is perfectly understandable given the slowdown in economic expansion. My yesterday‘s analysis coupled with Monday‘s one has all the details of the fundamental backdrop and Fed positioning (little changed with yesterday‘s Powell virtual townhall meeting).Markets are simply being nervous here, and it‘s my view that the economic recovery hasn‘t yet peaked, for when I look at various yield spreads, we haven‘t reached levels consistent with the peak (e.g. in the 10-year over 2-year Treasury, by far not). I continue to think we‘re approximately midway into the expansion, and only yield curve inversion would herald an approaching recession to me.Again, today’s report will be a little shorter than usual, and focus on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe bears made their appearance, finally – and the increasing volume tells that they‘re probably not done yet. Sideways trading is the best the bulls can hope for, and looking at the credit markets, I‘m not looking for a swift bullish resolution before a thorough test first. Yes, the odds of a serious correction in the S&P 500 have increased again.Credit MarketsNoticeable hiccup in the credit markets appeared yesterday, making the short-term outlook definitely not bullish. Sideways to down seems to be the most likely scenario.Gold, Silver and MinersIn spite of continued miners‘ underperformance, gold resilience is understandable in the current risk-off environment with safe haven assets such as Treasuries being sought in order to take cover from the reflation trades getting under fire (and that affects silver too, for it trades as both a precious metal and a commodity).Crude OilEnergy stocks paint a grim picture, and crude oil‘s downside doesn‘t appear to be over in spite of momentary and relative resilience.CopperThe local bottom has been indeed elusive, as yesterday‘s price action shows. No signs it‘s in either today – the volume is slowly rising, and the bulls haven‘t made their presence known much. When the taper bets get reversed though, look for a swift reversal to the upside – probably not as steep as in gold lately, but still clearly noticeable.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos gave up solid intraday gains yesterday, and haven‘t quite come back today – the outlook is a bit unclear at the moment, with the decisive break of either $48,000 or $44,000 in Bitcoin serving as a litmus test of where next we‘re going.SummaryWhile the risk of a correction in stocks grows, in many commodities it‘s already here – and getting more pronounced. The decelerating economy and margin debt retreat are taking their toll as much as taper fears, making the dollar rise in what can be described as a (mini) taper tantrum already here.Does it change the reflation and economic expansion story? I don‘t think so as this has farther to go before rolling over, therefore I look for inflation trades to eventually return to strength, and for gold to take advantage of continued monetary accommodation.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Keeps Bullish Bias

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 19.08.2021 09:59
EURUSD breaks critical supportThe US dollar rose after the Fed minutes suggested tapering later this year.The euro’s previous rebound had met stiff selling pressure at 1.1800. The slide below 1.1710 (a critical support from last March) is an indication that sellers still have control of the direction.A temporary bounce while the RSI recovers to the neutrality area can be an opportunity to sell into strength.The former support at 1.1740 has turned into a supply zone. Below 1.1700 renewed momentum may drive the pair to October’s low at 1.1600.GBPUSD sees limited reboundThe sterling remains under pressure after the UK’s lower-than-expected core CPI in July. The break below the intermediate support at 1.3800 has accelerated the downward impetus.An oversold RSI has helped lift the price but this could be a dead cat bounce with sellers eager to double down at a better fill.1.3780 is a fresh resistance and likely to check the pound’s advance. 1.3700 is the closest support which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July rally.Further down, 1.3600 is a demand zone on the daily chart.USDCAD resumes rallyUpbeat BOC CPI failed to outweigh the US Fed’s hawkish July minutes. The US dollar’s rally has gained traction after it cleared the supply area at 1.2600.A combination of short-covering and fresh buying suggests that the uptrend may have resumed after a month-long consolidation. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback.The resistance-turned-support at 1.2580 would see buying interest in that case. On the upside, a break above 1.2700 could open the door to the peak at 1.2800.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Taper Squeeze Is On!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.08.2021 15:44
Fed minutes as the straw to break the camel‘s back? This time, they weren‘t as uneventful as so often before, making the markets look for taper to indeed come – and sooner than expected. Quite a courageous proposition given that commercial bank credit creation isn‘t ready to take up the slack, and then some. The markets thus reassessed the short-term prospects, reacting with a modest degree of panic not only in select commodities, but finally also in stocks. Seems like the few percent correction I warned about on Tuesday as approaching, is finally here and unfolding:(…) in the world of question marks over high pace of economic growth, it‘s the Fed that‘s between a rock and hard place.On one hand, they have stubborn and quickening inflation to deal with (or pretend to deal with through the FOMC, the federal open mouth committee) – getting ahead of the curve means serious tightening (okay, first getting less loose monetarily, which is what taper is about). Given China‘s slowdown and corresponding U.S. figures projected, it would be a tall order to turn off the spigot into a weakening (but still growing) economy – that has potential to trigger quite a correction in stocks and risk-on assets. Note copper and oil paring recent gains, and going largely sideways for weeks – not rolling over, but the light is amber, irrespective of the infrastructure bill.On the other hand, if the central bank does nothing, inflation would grow even more entrenched, sinking the stock market and economy over time, anyway. Don‘t forget about the massive spending – the Fed turning restrictive isn‘t the math favored outcome here.Bond yields aren‘t squeezing the Fed‘s hand – the market is paying more attention to growth than inflation at the moment. And that means headwinds for the reflation and commodity trades as these would find rising rates more conducive. Copper to gold ratio is seeing every spike sold since June, underlining the tug of war between the prospects of economy roaring ahead vs. hunkering down.Looking at market reaction to the approaching taper (no mention of tightening – Powell learned his 2018 lesson though I still say that the Fed would have a much harder time withdrawing liquidity now), quite universal selling followed next – with the exception of the dollar, gold and to a degree Treasuries.Taking on inflation through the dollar doesn‘t come without its own risks, though – while taking down commodities a notch or two, global growth would face headwinds too. Treasury yield spreads aren‘t yet thankfully signalling more slowdown ahead – yields look ready to keep chopping, and only very gradually to start rising again. Rising greenback though isn‘t a silver bullet in extinguishing inflation given still stubborn rent prospects (it‘s one third of CPI) and wage pressures, let alone mounting supply chain issues when it comes to smooth international shipping (yes, China terminals restrictions etc). And I‘m not even raising corona anymore but look for the official start of flu season (Sep 15) to get interesting, if you know what I mean.This is the time to be picky about where to be exposed to risks, which asset classes are likely to ride the taper and growth storms best. I think it would be copper over oil, and gold over silver. The stock market correction appears in its opening stages indeed, and cryptos still chopping around would be a great result. It‘ll take a while for the dollar to roll over to the downside, but look for it to do so over the medium to longer term, and keep an eye on Treasuries – would be great if they confirmed my midpoint economic cycle hypothesis and didn‘t spike. Finally, I expect the Fed to come to its senses as not enough of what‘s left of the free market, would step up to the plate and finance growing „building back better“ deficits. So far, so good.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookVolume hasn‘t increased all that much, but look for it to change as we approach a fresh buying opportunity. For now, look for the downside risks to continue.Credit MarketsPowerful reversal in credit markets, spelling more trouble for the riskier parts of the spectrum. Indeed as I wrote yesterday, the risk-on optimism was vulnerable to a suddent souring that would hit many advancing stocks hard. Gold, Silver and MinersGold resilience in the face of weakening miners, is a good sign – look for the yellow metal to lead precious metals sector higher. Miners‘ weakness reminds me of the setup before 2016, and we know what happened over the coming months back then. Silver together with copper would improve, and the same is true about nickel – all three are a must for green economy.Crude OilEnergy stocks keep doing worse in such an environment, and while a solid support in oil is approaching, we aren‘t there yet – the selling pressure hasn‘t really decreased.CopperCopper is closer to its support than oil, but the knife didn‘t stop falling yet. The volume examination is though more encouraging than in the case of black gold.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos have pared gains, and are treading water at the moment – look for vulnerabilities to likely manifest here over the coming days too. It would be very premature and unreasonable to talk about shift to bearish outlook, though.SummaryThe Fed looks decided to try walking the fine line and taper, but that wouldn‘t come without its own set of consequences as described in the opening part of today‘s extensive report. Continuing with the paragraph right before the chart section…Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Intraday Market Analysis – NASDAQ In Consolidation

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 20.08.2021 11:04
NAS 100 tests new resistanceThe Nasdaq 100 slipped after the Fed meeting minutes raised odds for tapering. The fall below 14880 has triggered strong bearish momentum as leveraged buyers were forced to close their positions.The market remains cautious while the RSI rises back from an oversold situation. A rebound could be short-lived unless it lifts offers near 15040.A lack of support may send the index to the critical support at 14600 on the daily chart. A breakout could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.AUDJPY sees limited bounceThe Australian dollar struggles as jobs data suggest fewer people looking for work amid lockdowns.The pair is heading towards 77.50 as momentum traders took over control of price action.The divergence between the 20 and 30-hour moving averages suggests an increase in the sell-off. Sentiment would stay downbeat as long as the Aussie is below the averages.Though a limited bounce is likely to let the RSI return to the neutrality area. The bears would be eager to add stakes near the resistance at 79.50.USOIL drops to daily supportOil prices plunge amid concerns over weaker demand and higher US inventories.The downtrend picked up steam after WTI fell below the double bottom at 65.20. Last May’s low at 61.70 is major support from the daily time frame.As the RSI recovers from an oversold situation, traders could be waiting to buy the dip in the demand zone. However, its breach could threaten the 16-month long rally.On the upside, buyers will need to clear 67.50 before they could expect a meaningful rebound.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold Stocks Break to New Yearly Lows!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.08.2021 15:20
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a breakdown! Gold stocks underperformed the yellow metal so much that they reached the lowest levels seen this year…The HUI Index (gold stocks) broke to new 2021 lows while the USD Index broke to new 2021 highs. Just as I’ve been warning you.Mining stocks’ extreme weakness relative to gold continued yesterday, and while it may seem like the weakness has to have a limit, this limit is likely still quite far from the markets right now.Let’s take a look at the long-term HUI Index chart for details.Remember when I told you that the tiny buy signal from the stochastic indicator was unlikely to trigger anything more than a brief pause? That was based on the analogy to what happened in late 2012 when miners paused, and then the decline simply continued. Well, gold stocks did exactly that and gold stocks declined once again. Right now, they are right after the breakdown to new yearly lows, and this has profound implications in light of the analogy to the 2012 – 2013 decline.You see, when the HUI Index declined below the previous lows back in 2013, it meant that the biggest part of the slide was underway. The profit potential was still there, as it was still the first half of the biggest decline, but it meant that waiting for another big rebound in order to add to one’s short positions was not a good idea.To clarify, there were two short-term consolidations soon after the breakdown in 2013. One of them took the HUI about 4% higher (in February 2013) and then we saw a decline. Afterwards, about 7%-8% correction (in March 2013) followed and then the biggest part of the decline took place.Consequently, we might see a consolidation in gold stocks quite soon, but I wouldn’t expect it to be anything to write home about. At the current price levels, 4% – 8% means a decline of about 9 – 19 index. In the case of the GDXJ (if it moved in tune with the HUI), it would imply a move up by $1.5 - $3.Of course, this is a hypothetical discussion of what might happen when gold stocks correct, but it doesn’t imply that they are likely to correct now. Actually, the opposite seems likely because of the HUI’s breakdown and the USD’s breakout. Again, forecasting gold stocks at higher levels in the near term might be a dangerous thing to do.So, to clarify, the above-mentioned corrective upswing is likely to take place after another short-term move lower. If the GDXJ bottoms at about $35, then seeing it correct to about $36.5 - $38 will be quite normal.As far as the short-term price moves in the mining stocks are concerned, my previous comments remain up-to-date. Yesterday, I wrote the following about the GDX ETF:What happened? Senior gold miners finally broke decisively below the neck level of their head-and-shoulders formation, while juniors’ freefall continued.Yesterday, senior miners closed below the neck level of the pattern for the second day, which means that the breakdown is almost confirmed.The GDX has encountered strong support provided by the previous 2021 lows, but it doesn’t mean that we have to see a rebound here. Why? Because other proxies for mining stocks are already after the breakdown. This is the case with the GDXJ ETF, the HUI Index, and also the XAU Index. Even silver stocks – the SIL ETF –closed below the previous 2021 lows for the second day in a row.So, did mining stocks encounter strong support here? Not really, only one of the proxies did – the GDX ETF. The remaining ones are already after a breakdown to new 2021 lows, and if we get a weekly close below them as well, the breakdown will be confirmed.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Making the Fed Blink

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.08.2021 15:51
Sea of red in stocks, reversed shortly after the open – is the worst behind? Remembering my Tuesday‘s words bringing up again downside risk (these have been growing for quite a few days before already), I don‘t think so – I consider yesterday‘s volatility as likely not to have yet peaked, and the VIX close above 21 could be overcome perhaps as early as Tuesday.It‘s that the shift in sentiment to risk off is everywhere to be seen – surging dollar, declining yields, value doing way worse than tech, gold outperforming silver, gold holding up very well, copper and oil striving to bottom, inflation expectations approaching the lower end of its recent range, and quite a few more signs including from select currency pairs – pretty consistent with the takeaways from yesterday‘s extensive analysis. If you hadn‘t read this taper navigation game plan already, have a look, as the feedback was very positive:(…) This is the time to be picky about where to be exposed to risks, which asset classes are likely to ride the taper and growth storms best. I think it would be copper over oil, and gold over silver. The stock market correction appears in its opening stages indeed, and cryptos still chopping around would be a great result. It‘ll take a while for the dollar to roll over to the downside, but look for it to do so over the medium to longer term, and keep an eye on Treasuries – would be great if they confirmed my midpoint economic cycle hypothesis and didn‘t spike. Finally, I expect the Fed to come to its senses as not enough of what‘s left of the free market, would step up to the plate and finance growing „building back better“ deficits. So far, so good.Today’s report will be shorter than usual, and focus on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookRising volume isn‘t yet strong enough, and the rally‘s internals spell caution still. The overhead resistance above 4,425 would likely stop any advance on first encounter, and the bulls better think about convincingly defending (equals not letting price action anywhere near) 4,370s already today, and especially on Monday.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds haven‘t reversed powerfully, not nearly enough. The selling pressure isn‘t likely over even as Treasury yields are reaching for thin air again. The next two sessions will be particularly enlightening.Gold, Silver and MinersAs said yesterday, gold resilience in the face of weakening miners, is a good sign – look for the yellow metal to lead precious metals sector higher. The parallels to early 2016 are hard to miss. Given that we‘re near Mar lows in the miners, capitulation is approaching – perhaps as soon as it becomes apparent what would come out of Jackson Hole.Crude OilEnergy stocks keep plunging, and attracted high volume yesterday, which means an oil bottom could be approaching. That‘s not yet my leading scenario as I look for price declines to slow down a little first – and it‘s an open question whether that happens above or below $60.CopperCopper erasing half of the intraday slide, is a good intial sign, but the road to flip the very short-term outlook bullish is more than a few days away still. The steadily rising volume spells accumulation, but FCX also says we aren‘t out of the woods in the red metal yet.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls replied solidly yesterday, but prices are still rangebound for now, and are likely to chop a little more before another upleg develops.SummaryFed taper prospects are being reassessed, and the decreasing liquidity is putting pressure on quite a few markets. With margin debt standing first in the line, the risks are skewed mostly to the downside as safe haven assets don‘t look to have topped just yet – I mean the deepest ones such as USD and Treasuries. We‘re getting there, and all it takes is for the Fed to blink.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Inflation Accelerates in June. Will Gold Finally React?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.08.2021 17:11
Inflation surged in June to 5.4%. It may retrace soon, but there’s a good chance that it will increase again later, boosting gold at last.The inflation monster has reared its ugly head. The CPI annual rate surged to 5.4% in June, accelerating from already mind-blowing 5% in May. It was the hottest pace since the Great Recession. However, Powell and his colleagues from the FOMC still claim that inflation will only be temporary, as it was boosted by the reopening from the Great Lockdown, while others predict a replay of the stagflation from the 1970s. Who is right?Well, it’s true that some inflation measures will decline in the near future. After all, the economy faces supply chain bottlenecks, which are causing price spikes. The global shortage in the supply of semiconductors chips is one of the temporary problems that led to the annual 45.2% spike in the price of used cars in June, accounting for more than one-third of the surge in the overall index.However, used vehicle prices are skyrocketing not just because of the problems on the supply side, but also because of a higher-than-expected demand. And where did this strong demand come from? You got it – from the extra cash that has been created and distributed to people. There is so much liquidity in the markets thanks to very easy fiscal and monetary policies that people just want to buy stuff, no matter the price.As Milton Friedman notes, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” – prices cannot keep on rising without the expansion of money supply. So, supply bottlenecks are only one driver of rising inflation – the surge in the broad money supply, the reduced pace of globalization and the complacent stance of central banks are other factors.What’s more, even if we drop the subindex for used cars from the calculation, the annual inflation rate would be 3.6%, almost twice the Fed’s target. Indeed, there is still some base effect, but even if we compare the recent inflation readings to February 2020, we see in the chart below that the CPI is 4.7% higher than before the pandemic.So, some improvement in the supply of semiconductors (if we drop out low CPI readings from the calculation) could soften inflation somewhat in July or later this year. However, even if inflation backs out of its current pace, it will likely remain elevated; even experts admit it. The economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast that inflation will drop to 3.2% by the end of this year and stay above 2% through 2023.There is still high inflationary pressure that should keep consumer prices boosted. For instance, the ISM® Prices Index registered 92.1%in June, indicating that raw materials’ prices increased for the 13th consecutive month. The index has risen to its highest level since July 1979. Producer prices are also rising, while transportation costs, in particular freight prices, are skyrocketing. All this should add to the inflationary pressure, possibly translating into higher consumer prices in the future.Another important issue is that inflation often comes in waves. So, even if the first bout ends soon, it won’t mean that the threat of high inflation is going to disappear. It might be the case that we are just in a transitional phase, slowly moving into a period of higher inflation. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the stagflation from the 1970s didn’t show up overnight.Instead, the first wave started in 1965 and peaked a year later. However, in 1967, the second wave began, which peaked in 1970. Then, inflation eased, giving false hopes, but it accelerated again in 1973-1975, and – after another temporary retreat –in 1978-1980.So, the first bout of inflation always looks temporary, but it may lay the groundwork for even higher inflation, especially if inflation expectations de-anchor. And, indeed, although medium-term consumer expectations remain stable, one-year expectations have recently risen, as the chart below shows. In the case of New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (red line), they have soared 0.8 percentage points, reaching 4.8% – a new series high.What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the impact of inflation might be negative. This is because the markets will eventually react to higher inflation and the more hawkish Fed. So, the bond yields will rise, increasing the opportunity costs of holding gold.However, after some time, higher inflation will become disruptive for the economy. Either real household incomes or corporate profits will decline (depending on the companies’ ability to pass surging costs), while higher interest rates will trigger some defaults. When inflationary psychology sets in and people start to worry about all the bad consequences of inflation, gold should shine. So far, the party goes on; but a hangover lurks just around the corner.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Important patterns for silver

Important patterns for silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.08.2021 22:43
It might be different this time around because the housing market isn’t your best bet as the earliest warning signal. With possible hyperinflation on the horizon, the housing market as a “money to commodity” transfer might be lagging.Consequently, we must look at the Russel 2000 first:Russell 2000 in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Early warning signals already present:Russell 2000 Index in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 20th, 2021.What also might be different is that typically, greed changes to uncertainty and uncertainty changes to fear. It means that markets trade up, then sideways, then down. Be alerted this time that human nerves are already frail. People struggle to make ends meet, and the limitations due to Covid have strained personal lives. It could mean that we might not see a typical roll-over, but rather an exuberant top and a sharp reversal from greed to fear without the usual sideways reaction time.The monthly chart above shows what’s typically called a blow-off top from a very steep, sharp move up (from US$966 in March last year to US$2,360 in less than twelve months, a 144% move), that could collapse anytime. The double top formation right now could very well develop in a down move. Weekly Chart, Gold to S&P 500 comparison, Quick recoveries in troubled times:Gold to S&P 500 index comparison, weekly chart 2008-2009If we see a sharp market decline, precious metals are typically drawn down due to margin calls needing to be covered by freeing liquidity from this sector. However, once gold and silver find their bottom, they tend to rally early out of which a more robust and longer-term uptrend can emerge.The weekly chart above shows that in the last market crash in 2008/2009, S&P500 prices fell dramatically and dragged gold (blue line) down as well. But then gold turned up from its double low in late October and early November 2008, way earlier than the S&P500, where prices continued to decline for another five months.  Gold to Silver comparison in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Gold, a leading indicator to silver:Gold to Silver comparison in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 20th, 2021.Another unique pattern is the delay between the gold to the silver move. When gold breaks out, it takes a while till silver follows, a great way to time ones’ positioning into the silver market. With silver providing more bang for the buck (=percentage moves), it is an ideal trading instrument to, besides holding it physical long term, trade it as a “booster” within one’s wealth preservation portfolio.The chart above shows how gold breakouts are followed by silver breakouts with quite some time delay. Consequently, gold on the longer-term time frames is a leading indicator for timing silver entries.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, waiting for the signal:Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 20th, 2021.Regarding timing, we see gold as the leader within this next turning point, and as such, silver is timed alongside once gold has shown solid confirmation of a larger time frame cycle long entry.That being said, we would want a gold price trading above US$1,815 in September and then prices of silver building a low-risk entry pattern on a weekly chart with prices above US$23.23 for long entry considerations.You will find more detailed silver entry setups for September coming up in our future weekly chart book publications.Important patterns for silver:We wish market play would be as simple as providing support and a resistance line, simply stating “enter here at…, and get out here at…”. Many try to make you believe just that, but this chess game is more complex and requires market observation. With your family’s future at stake in exceptional times, we find each minute given to market education time not wasted. We try to support you in demystifying the markets and hope you find your profitable patterns to identify low-risk opportunities.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

U-Turn and Quite for Real

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.08.2021 13:38
What doesn‘t go down, must go up? With a little Kaplan help, sideways S&P 500 trading well above 4,370 – 4,375 area spurted higher as the taper prospects rebalancing worked its magic. As I had been writing thoughout the week and well before, mathematics of growing deficits doesn‘t favor decreasing asset purchases. On top, the economy appears a little slowing down – while no recession this year or next is likely – we‘re midpoint in the expansion cycle as per my credit spread indicators – the slowdown looks inevitable, and the only question is the extent and seriousness of any Fed tapering.The talking has thus far lifted the dollar, enabling the central bank to take on inflation through the back door. Combined with the decreasing margin debt (first sign that something with the M2 rate of growth is amiss), the reflation and commodity trades have suffered, and all it took was a mere 2.5% from S&P 500 ATHs to make the Fed blink as per the title of my prescient Friday article.Treasuries though aren‘t yet convinced, having merely wavered – they‘re overestimating the odds of economic growth turning negative. The same trading action describes the dollar, and inflation expectations dipped on the day as well. As a result, expect the turn to risk on beyond stocks, to continue in fits and starts – Friday was but a first swallow revealing that the Fed is ready to step in when things start to look bleak for the „generally accepted metric of economic success“, the stock market.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookReversal continuation on not outstanding but still good volume – it‘s the high beta internals that bode well for the coming week, as it‘s about the degree of value and tech outside $NYFANG performance.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have led the reversal in credit markets, while the quality debt instruments remain elevated, with especially Treasuries still doubting the stock market rebound. That‘s but one of the signs of caution for the S&P 500 bulls.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners finally stopped falling, but much more needs to happen so as to brighten the PMs outlook considerably. Thus far, just gold can be counted on to be resilient while silver is being challenged alongside commodities during any selloffs.Crude OilEnergy stocks stopped their daily decline, and the sellers might be getting exhausted here – anyway, the local bottom appears approaching, and today‘s premarket trading taking black gold over $64, highlights that.CopperCopper rebounded, and very strongly. The volume didn‘t disappoint either – some trading between the two moving averages appears likely next. I‘m not counting on a steep and immediate rebound above the 50-day moving average in spite of the positive fundamentals behind copper and other base metals just yet.Bitcoin and EthereumMore base building over the weekend gave way to upswing continuation – the path of least resistance is still up.SummaryMonday‘s trading shows the markets are taking the dialing back of Fed‘s taper seriously, and risk-on assets are surging, accompanied by the dollar retreating. And that bodes well for value stocks today as opposed to tech behemoths. Thus far, it‘s only precious metals where the upswings are much tamer, compared to copper or oil.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

USDX Resurgence: Don’t Let It Catch You Flat-Footed!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.08.2021 15:45
With its negative correlation to the metals, the USDX rally weighed heavily on gold, silver and stocks. Stop and think: what would be if it continued?While the overwhelming majority of investors entered 2021 with a bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar, our optimism has proved quite prescient. The USDX bottomed at the beginning of the year. With the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high last week – combined with the EUR/USD, the GDX ETF, the GDXJ ETF, and the price of silver (in terms of the closing prices) hitting new 2021 lows – the ‘pain trade’ has caught many market participants flat-footed. Even silver stocks (the SIL ETF) closed at new yearly lows.Moreover, after the USD Index surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern and confirmed the breakout above its cup and handle pattern, the combination of new daily and weekly highs is quite a bullish cocktail. Given all that, even if a short-term pullback materializes, the USDX remains poised to challenge ~97.5 - 98 over the medium term — perhaps even over the short term (next several weeks).Please see below:Furthermore, as the USD Index seeks higher ground, the euro has fallen off a cliff. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the currency pair’s performance is so important. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the Euro Index has confirmed the breakdown below its bearish head & shoulders pattern, and the ominous event was further validated after the back-test of the breakdown failed and the Euro Index hit a new 2021 low.Please see below:Eye In the Sky Doesn’t LieWhat is signaling trouble for dollar bears as well, the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around).What’s more, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration.Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices here is likely not a good idea.Ok, but didn’t we just see strength in gold – the one that you just wrote about? The USD Index soared last week by a full index point, and yet gold didn’t decline…That’s a good question, but the context is very important when analyzing specific price moves and their relative strengths. As I wrote earlier, we saw new yearly lows in practically every other important asset used for determining next moves in the precious metals sector: the EUR/USD, silver, and mining stocks (including practically all noteworthy ETFs and indices). So, did gold really show strength by not declining despite the USD’s strength, or was gold’s performance just a small, local deviation from the ongoing trend? Since practically everything else points to lower PM prices in the next weeks, the latter is more probable.Besides, there are both: technical and fundamental reasons for gold to behave in this way right now.The technical reason comes from the looming triangle-vertex-based turning point in gold, which is due today.The rising black support line starts at the 2020 low, which is not visible on the chart.Since these points work on a near-to basis, we might see a turnaround today or within the next few days.Seen Anything on the News Recently?Fundamentally, did anything important from the geopolitical point of view happen recently? Like, for example, the U.S. withdrawing from Afghanistan? Exactly…Geopolitical events tend to impact gold much more than they impact other parts of the precious metals sector, which serves as a perfect explanation of why gold didn’t decline along with the rest of the PMs. As a reminder, geopolitical events usually have a visible but temporary impact on the gold price. They change its short-term price moves, but they don’t change the forecast for gold in general.Consequently, it was not really the strength in gold vs. the USD Index that took place last week. It was a mix of the above and gold’s weakness relative to what happened in a geopolitical arena sprinkled with technicals. All in all, it’s not bullish for the PMs.On top of that, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the smart money is already backing the greenback.Please see below:Finally, while short covering helped propel the USD Index higher last week, speculators’ positioning still has room to run. For example, while the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows that net-positioning (long 19,211 contracts) by non-commercial (speculative) futures traders is near its 2021 highs, enthusiasm for the U.S. dollar is still well below the highs witnessed in previous years.Source: COTThe bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, the U.S. dollar’s resurgence has weighed heavily on gold, silver and mining stocks. And with the technicals, fundamentals and shifting sentiment supporting a higher USD Index over the medium term, the metals’ strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar should give investors a cause for pause. To that point, while we’re bullish on gold, silver and mining stocks’ long-term prospects, sharp declines will likely materialize over the medium term before they continue their secular uptrends.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

How to Trade Oil and Gas (Part 1)

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.08.2021 17:31
Oil, gas, and other energy news is everywhere, but “how do I get in on the action? What type of trading instruments do I use?” Read on and find out.You might be thinking “should I use stocks, ETFs, CFDs, or futures to trade oil and gas? What about solar energy?” Picking the right instrument depends on many factors such as types of businesses, regions, risk profiles, and psychology.In today’s article, I’ll provide you with some ideas about the various products that you can use to trade oil and gas, but also more generally the energy markets. A thank you goes out to Mark, one of our readers, who asked this question – one that some of you may be wondering about. By the way, please feel free to send me questions. That’s what you come here for – the extra context.First, let’s focus mainly on non-leveraged securities (stocks and ETFs), while showing some stable and/or fast-growing stocks and indexes. Major leveraged products, such as futures contracts, will be emphasised in a second part this week, so bear with me, as I provide you with some ideas as to their usefulness.StocksCommon shares in stocks is one of the most popular types of security and widely used by portfolio managers, whether they are hedge funds, investment funds, pension funds or retail investors.Shares in stocks are easy to trade. Since they are non-leveraged instruments, they present some attractive characteristics to get one foot into investing such as the fact that they do not necessarily require a large amount of capital to get started. Furthermore, these days there is a growing number of brokers offering to invest into a fraction of shares, so it helps mitigate the risk and optimise a portfolio return with better diversification and more accuracy in exposure.Here are some interesting companies that you can use to diversify your portfolio (click on link below each chart to see more information, data, holdings, etc.)::ALB, a chemical manufacturing company, large provider of lithium for EV batteries;DCP, a natural gas company dedicated to midstream petroleum services;ENB, a multinational pipeline company, focusing on the transportation of oil and gas;ENPH, a tech company providing residential/commercial solar plus storage solutions;SPWR, a company specialising in solar power generation and energy storage.Figure 1 – Albemarle Corp (ALB) stock (monthly, logarithmic scale)Figure 2 – DCP Midstream Partners LP (DCP) stock (monthly, logarithmic scale)Figure 3 – Enbridge Inc. (ENB) stock (monthly, logarithmic scale)Figure 4 – Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) stock (weekly, logarithmic scale)Figure 5 – SunPower Corp. (SPWR) stock (monthly, logarithmic scale)Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)On the ETF market, you can invest directly in a basket of stocks directly or indirectly linked to the energy sector. For example, investing in a portfolio of natural gas, oil and alternative or renewable energy companies will be seen as directly linked to the energy industry. On the other hand, investing in some other sectors such as the maritime/shipping and transportation sectors, the construction/utility sectors, or even – to another extent – the crypto/mining sector, could be seen as indirect assets (the latter having a relative impact on energy demand and supply.)The following are some ETFs worth checking out (click on link below each chart to see more information, data, holdings, etc.):FCG, index with exposure to the exploration and production of natural gas;QCLN, index designed to gauge the performance of U.S. clean energy companies;TAN, index comprised of companies focusing on the solar energy industry.Figure 1 – First Trust Natural Gas (FCG) ETF (monthly, logarithmic scale)Figure 2 – First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN) ETF (weekly, logarithmic scale)Figure 3 – Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) ETF (weekly, logarithmic scale)In conclusion, if your trading perspective is rather short-term, pick the most volatile assets and you may want to associate your trading strategy with the use of stops and targets. If your goal is longer-term, then you may prefer investing in stocks and ETFs with progressive entry.Since those are non-leveraged assets, you may get better control on your exposure and leave more room to let the market breathe and take the opportunity of lower dips to average down.The companies I listed are definitely worth looking at, but it’d be too easy if I just listed them – anyone can do that. I do the hard work and give you signals and ideas on entry and exit points. That’s my job, that’s what I do best, and it’s that knowledge that makes the difference. It’s all found in the premium version. Benefit today and sign up to get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Best Real Assets to Catch Fire Now

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.08.2021 16:37
Friday‘s optimism carried over to Monday, and far from only in stocks. Pendulum swinging the taper tough talk being just talk, worked powerfully to lift the beaten commodities – and unlike on Friday, oil joined in. The celebrations were a little too powerful, and I‘m looking for at least a modest daily consolidation in yesterday‘s star performers today.What was most powerful though, was the daily reversal in the dollar while yields remained pretty much unchanged. The dialing back of taper didn‘t lift the dollar exactly – the repo market being fixed through meager 5 basis points rate, served it better. Anyway:(…) As I had been writing thoughout the week and well before, mathematics of growing deficits doesn‘t favor decreasing asset purchases. On top, the economy appears a little slowing down – while no recession this year or next is likely – we‘re midpoint in the expansion cycle as per my credit spread indicators – the slowdown looks inevitable, and the only question is the extent and seriousness of any Fed tapering.And with much of the tapering done through the repo market in a way already, the focus will shift to the balooning deficits and debt ceiling so as to confront the disappointment creeping in through Monday‘s PMIs and more. I‘m not looking though for a deterioration strong enough to derail the stock market and commodities bull runs. Let alone the precious metals one. A good signal thereof would be widening credit spreads on the long end as the short end has been flattened already.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookReversal continuation on still strong volume – the 500-strong index is likely to consolidate the sharp 2-day gains, and so is Nasdaq, the more so if a slight risk-off whiff appears again. All it takes is one less than dovish Fed pronouncement.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds gapped higher, and closed on a strong note – daily consolidation wouldn‘t be out of the question. Overall positive turn in credit markets – one that is able to carry the stock indices during the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersMiners joined in the gold upswing, in what reflects more than a daily weakness in the dollar. Silver is catching fire too, and yesterday‘s summary about the PMs upswing being the tamest thus far, might need revisiting once the fiscal and monetary realities sink in.Crude OilEnergy stocks stabilization facilitated the oil rebound, and black gold mustered strength seen last in mid Jul. The local bottom is in, and too much of a retracement would be a gift to the bulls.CopperCopper rebound continues, and stabilization at around 4.25 would be very constructive for the bulls so as to take on the 50-day moving average next. The copper chart retains strongly bullish flavor even if we might go a little sideways first still.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are still short-term undecided – backing and filling before another upswing wouldn‘t be at all surprising.SummaryFollowing Monday‘s gains, consolidation in the risk-on sentiment is likely for today, except for the most beaten down commodities and precious metals (these can continue extending gains). Thereafter, look for more short-term trigger happiness as the markets strive to decipher the upcoming Jackson Hole statements, and preposition themselves accordingly.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold-GameStop Connection? It's an Emotions Game

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.08.2021 15:54
There are many factors affecting gold prices on a daily basis, but… how can GameStop stock be one of them?Given today’s pre-market slide in gold, it seems that the triangle-vertex-based turning point worked once again. Declines are likely next.In yesterday’s analysis, I explained why the situation remains very similar to what happened in 2013, and that remains up-to-date. On top of that, two interesting things happened yesterday: one quite obvious and one less obvious.White Metal OutperformanceThe more obvious one was that silver outperformed gold on a short-term basis.While miners and gold were almost flat yesterday, silver’s daily upswing was notable. Nothing to write home about, but it was visibly bigger than what we saw in gold and miners. These moments – when silver outperforms on a very short-term basis – tend to take place right before the prices of the precious metals and mining stocks decline.Remember the early-August breakout in silver that turned out to be a fakeout? Silver broke above new highs while gold didn’t, so it outperformed on a very short-term basis. And just as lower prices followed then, lower prices are likely to follow soon (not necessarily immediately, though).Have You Heard About GameStop?The less obvious indication of a turnaround in gold came from the… GameStop stock price.Yesterday’s sizable price spike is something that we saw several times this year. I’m not taking into account the January rally, as it was a specific forum-activity-based upswing that seems to be of one-of-a-kind nature. Except for yesterday’s price spike, there were also four other similar spikes. Let’s check if there was any kind of regularity on the gold market at the same time.It turns out that in all four cases when the GameStop stock price spiked, gold was topping. Does it make any sense, and can one, therefore, count on this being repeated?Actually, it does make sense. The assets are not really directly related, but they are related in terms of people’s emotions. The GameStop trade was quite an emotional one, people were jumping on board based on fear of missing out regardless of anything else. And nothing really changed since that time. The current valuations of the stock seem to be based on the same emotional aspect along with people’s ability to finance the purchases, perhaps based on leveraged stimulus-based funds. Consequently, the price spikes in GameStop might be a barometer for a specific type of emotionally driven purchases. And if the market is emotional in one specific way, it could impact more (all?) assets in one way or another. In the case of gold, it seems that when emotions (as indicated by GameStop stock) spiked, gold was topping.Actually, it could be the case that the reason why silver outperforms gold on a short-term basis is related to the above. Silver is a smaller market, and it’s much more popular among individual investors than among institutions. No wonder that emotions play a part here, as the former are generally more emotional than the latter.Having said that, let’s take a look at gold.The yellow metal moved lower today, close to its triangle-vertex-based reversal. Consequently, the top might be in based on just that indication, and there are plenty more coming from other markets.The USD Index, for example.The Dollar’s BehaviorYesterday, I commented on the above chart in the following way:The USD Index invalidated the breakout to new 2021 highs, but it didn't invalidate the previous inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, so the downside seems very limited.There’s a rising short-term support line based on the June and July lows that currently “says” that the USD Index is unlikely to fall below ~92.75. At the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is trading at about 93.07, so it’s very close to above-mentioned level.And even if the USDX declines below it, there’s support at about 92.5 provided by the neck level of the previously confirmed inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This means that the USDX is unlikely to decline below this level, and this in turn means that the downside seems to be limited to about 0.6 index point. That’s not a lot.Remember when the USD Index previously invalidated the breakout above the inverse H&S pattern? I wrote then that it could decline to the nearest support level provided – then – by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Now the nearest support is provided by the rising support line at about 92.75.This doesn’t mean that gold will necessarily rally from here or that the rally will be substantial. On the lower part of the above chart, you can see that gold moved to its declining resistance line, which means that it could decline right away.The USD Index didn’t move to the above-mentioned rising support line, but it was very close to it. The USD Index has been relatively flat so far today, but gold is already down, so it seems that even if the USD Index bottoms slightly lower, it might not take gold to new short-term highs.All in all, it seems that the precious metals sector is ready for another sizable decline.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Jackson Hole Positioning

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.08.2021 16:04
More optimistic follow through yesterday brought additional gains to commodities while stocks and gold treaded water. Just as I wrote yesterday, the celebrations of the taper tough talk being just talk, were a little too powerful, and at least a modest daily consolidation arrived.Credit markets point to the risk-on moves to continue, favoring the reflation trades as yields and inflation expectations would slowly but surely pick up. The dollar has gone on the defensive again but look for it to recover some ground as metals and cryptos are gently hinting at today. Are the commodities and precious metals bull runs in jeopardy though? Not in the least as the conditions haven‘t and won‘t change with the Fed taper plays that have rocked the boat last week quite well.As stated yesterday:(…) And with much of the tapering done through the repo market in a way already, the focus will shift to the balooning deficits and debt ceiling so as to confront the disappointment creeping in through Monday‘s PMIs and more. I‘m not looking though for a deterioration strong enough to derail the stock market and commodities bull runs. Let alone the precious metals one. A good signal thereof would be widening credit spreads on the long end as the short end has been flattened already.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily pause is all we‘ve seen in stocks yesterday, with Nasdaq hit a little on account of the rising nominal yields. As even value found it hard to sustain gains, we‘re likely to see the consolidation to continue next as big moves before the Jackson Hole is over, are unlikely.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds continued the march higher, closing on a strong note again – the daily consolidation hasn‘t thus far arrived there. Overall positive turn in credit markets that‘s however leaving it a little extended for today and tomorrow unless the quality instruments rise modestly.Gold, Silver and MinersNot too much interesting has happened in the gold sector – only silver joined in the copper and oil upswings. Look for the sensitivity to the dollar moves to continue to a modest, yet decreasing degree as the taper suspense gets resolved – I say temporarily resolved as I don‘t believe in crystal clarity after Jackson Hole.Crude OilCrude oil rebound continues, and a little breather next wouldn‘t be unexpected. Reasonable prices have been reached, and the local bottom is in.CopperCopper rebound continues, and stabilization at around 4.25 is very constructive for the bulls – bullish chart and fundamentals even if we might go a little sideways first still (the red metal is slowing down a little vs. the CRB).Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are bidding their time – haven‘t breached any important support just yet. As stated yesterday, backing and filling before another upswing wouldn‘t be at all surprising.SummaryBefore the Jackson Hole, I‘m not looking for extensive and sustainable moves one or the other way. Return of the risk-on trades should be the lens to watch the markets through even though a discreet liquidity tightening is going on under the surface as e.g. margin debt data show. And don‘t look for M2 movements to put a stop to inflation.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Excited About Market Highs? Don’t Be – Looks Like a Topping Pattern

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.08.2021 17:02
Stocks changed little on Tuesday, but the S&P 500 reached a new record high. Is the market able to break above 4,500, or is it running low on fuel?The S&P 500 index gained 0.15% on Tuesday (Aug. 24) and it reached yet another new record high of 4,492.81. The market is getting closer to the 4,500 price level as investors await the Jackson Hole Symposium that begins tomorrow. And on Friday we will get a speech from Fed Chair Powell.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index is now at 4,450. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,490-4,500. The S&P 500 bounced from its four-month-long upward trend line last week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Dow Jones in a Topping Pattern?Let’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index is trading within a potential rising wedge downward reversal pattern. Recently it was relatively weaker, as it didn’t reach new record high like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The support level remains at around 35,000, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Struggles at $150 Price LevelApple stock got back to the resistance level of $150-152, marked by an August 17 record high of $151.68. We can still see negative technical divergences between the price and indicators. Overall, it looks like a medium-term topping pattern. The two-month-long upward trend line is now at around $145.Short Position is Still JustifiedLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. We opened a short position on Thursday, August 12 at the level of 4,435. The position was profitable before the recent run-up. We still think that a speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index reached new record high yesterday, but it gained just 0.15%. The market will most likely turn south again and extend its weeks-long consolidation. Therefore, we think that the short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.Here’s the breakdown:The market reached a new record high as it got closer to the 4,500 mark.Our speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective.We are expecting a 5% or bigger correction from the new record high.As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers, well-informed.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Time to Get Selective

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.08.2021 16:29
Decreasing volatility gives way to rising one, but don‘t look for it to happen just today. More paring the risk-on bets seems the order of the day as even the dollar and nominal yields went down together. Gentle signs of deterioration were visible in copper wavering intraday and oil getting a bit too optimistic. Stocks though continue running, or should I better say crawling, ahead as value repelled a downswing attempt.Margin debt is contracting, M2 not exactly at the prior rates of growth, but celebrations in the paper and real asset markets largely go on. Gold and silver are understandably lagging in the drummed up taper expectations, but I‘m not looking for any kind of dramatic statement from the Fed. The two steps forward, one step backwards melodrama is likely to continue into the September FOMC, and even that may very well leave the markets guessing. The Fed is in no position to tighten, the economic recovery is likely to continue, and the central bank won‘t kill it – which means continuous noises, and data dependecy as they like to call it.Seeing through the bluff and long journey ahead towards anything even remotely resembling normalized monetary policy, markets would return to the risk-on stance while being more selective in the stock and commodity bull runs. Gold would also benefit from the returning inflation pressures, and the dollar will resume its bear market.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookMarket participants are reluctant to move one way or the other too much next. A little paring back of recent optimism looks most probable to me before the Jackson Hole.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds are getting way too stretched here, and that increases the odds of a downswing surprise reaching well beyond stocks, into commodities too.Gold, Silver and MinersGold took the nominal yields cue, ignoring the dollar – the yellow metal‘s downswings prior to key events are almost a ritual. Watch for the miners, yields and USD to tip their hand before – my bet is on not too much downside followed by shaking off the little clarity to be introduced by the Fed. Purposely, they won‘t release anything market moving, and that could very much disappoint the taper crowd.Crude OilCrude oil rebound is getting short-term extended, but is unlikely to roll over hard and fast.CopperCopper ran into resistance, and I‘m not looking for it to be overcome very fast. The commodity index though keeps sending positive signals mid-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are momentarily undecided but the upswing is very far from rolling over. Some more consolidation followed by a new upleg, appears most likely.SummaryBefore the Jackson Hole, I‘m not looking for extensive and sustainable moves one way or the other – that‘s still true. With enough appetite in the risk-on trades reaching short-term saturation point, look for renewed upleg to modestly continue once the Fed meeting gets out of the way.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Jackson Hole Ahead! What Should We Expect?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 26.08.2021 16:39
Gold prices fluctuate around $1,800, waiting for signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole. Which way will we go after the conference?Finally! The price of gold returned above $1,800 this week, as the chart below shows. It’s a nice change after the slide in early August. Although gold has rebounded somewhat, bulls shouldn’t open the champagne yet. A small beer would be enough for now, as the yellow metal already retreated from $1,800 on Wednesday (the fact that gold was unable to stay above this level is rather disappointing).So, what is happening on the gold market and what are its prospects? Well, it seems that two narratives are competing with each other ahead of the Jackson Hole conference. The first one is that Powell could provide some clues about the Fed’s tightening cycle, signaling when the tapering would start and how this process would look like. In other words, after July’s FOMC minutes, which came in more hawkish than expected, some analysts expect another hawkish signal from the Fed this week. Gold may suffer due to this, although tapering of the quantitative easing is already priced in to a large extent.On the other hand, the recent rebound in gold prices might have been caused by investors positioning for a more dovish Fed than before. This is because of the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which is spreading quickly through the US, as the chart below shows.The rising number of new cases could soften the Fed’s stance or temper its tapering plans. Indeed, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that “COVID-19 delta variant matters a lot”, while Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan admitted that he might “rethink his call for the Fed [to] start to taper its 120 billion per month and bond purchases if it looks like the spread of coronavirus Delta variant is slowing economic growth.” Of course, both presidents are not voting members of the FOMC this year, but their comments may still be indicative of the thinking within the Fed.After all, the US central bank says that it’s data-dependent, and some data seems to confirm recent worries about Delta’s impact on the GDP growth. For instance, the HIS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index declined from 59.9 in July to 55.4 in August. This means that U.S. business activity growth slowed for the third month in a row, partially due to Delta and softer consumer demand. The Fed’s more dovish tone and postponement should be positive for gold prices.Having said that, investors have to remember that Delta’s impact on the economy would be rather limited, as economic agents have already accommodated to the pandemic and nobody wants further lockdowns.Implications for GoldWhat does all this mean for the gold market? Well, the Jackson Hole conference might determine gold’s future direction, as many investors are waiting on the sidelines just to hear what Powell and other central bankers have to say. However, it’s also possible that this year’s symposium will be less impactful than expected. I mean, Powell could refrain from announcing any timeline of the Fed’s tightening cycle, preferring to wait until the FOMC September meeting when August non-farm payrolls are available and it is easier to assess the economic impact of Delta.However, the lack of hawkish action is dovish action. So, it’s possible that gold investors will find delight in Jackson Hole. However, this “a bit dovish scenario” might already be priced in, so a lot depends on the details of Powell’s speech. My bet is that he will point out both the economy’s strength and the threats of the Delta variant. Nonetheless, I don’t expect that Delta will radically change the Fed’s stance on tapering, so medium-term downward pressure on gold should remain intact.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Awaits Catalyst-Breakout

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 27.08.2021 09:34
USDJPY about to test resistanceThe Japanese yen weakened after a lower-than-expected Tokyo CPI in August. The US dollar is grinding its way back up after the mid-month correction.A double test at 109.50 suggests strong buying interest. Layers of support indicate buyers’ willingness to pay up, the freshest one is at 109.90.Momentum has slowed down as the price approaches the major supply area around 110.40. A bullish breakout would tip the balance to the long side again and open up the path to the psychological price tag of 111.00.AUDUSD rebound cools offThe Australian dollar fell back after a drop in July’s retail sales numbers.A close above 0.7270 has forced sellers to cover their bets. The pair is recovering towards the 30-day moving average on the daily chart which coincides with the support-turned-resistance at 0.7320.However, the rebound is likely to be choppy. After a double top in the overbought area, the RSI’s divergence indicates a loss in the rebound momentum.A drop below 0.7235 would lead to a deeper correction to 0.7150.US 30 recoups previous lossesThe Dow Jones index pulls back as traders await updates from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting.Price action’s V-shaped rebound is typical of buying-the-dips from the demand zone near 34600. By lifting offers around 35450 the bulls have signaled their commitment to maintaining the uptrend in the medium-term.The index is seeking support after it erased losses from last week. 35200 is the first support as the RSI dips into the oversold territory.A break above the peak at 35600 would extend the rally to new all-time highs.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

S&P 500 On a Win Streak – More Guns Aim to Take it Down

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.08.2021 14:58
The best gamer always emerges victorious from a duel, racking up his win streak. However, being this conspicuous – who doesn’t want to take him down?The same is the case with the S&P 500, which hasn’t recorded a two-month decline in nearly 10 months. It’s the fourth-longest streak on record! What’s more, the general stock market suffered another bout of volatility recently — with everyone teamed up to take the index lower, the only remaining question is: when?Fuel to the FireWith Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), scheduled to speak at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Aug. 27, the Delta variant has clearly paved a dovish pathway. However, could the magician actually reveal his secret? Well, as a not-so-subtle hint of what’s to come (whether today or over the next few months), Fed hawks were out in full force on Aug. 26. Speaking with CNBC, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that “what we’re seeing in these [lower-income] communities is inflation affects them disproportionately. I think at the Fed we have to take that very seriously.”And what does this mean for his taper timeline?Source: CNBCLikewise, Kansas City Fed President Esther George also told CNBC on Aug. 26 that “I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”“When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario.”Even more hawkish, she actually downplayed the economic impact of the Delta variant:“Both the anecdotes I hear from our contacts in the region and the data so far do not show a material change in the outlook.”Upping the ante, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard led the hawkish brigade on Aug. 26. Also, speaking with CNBC, Bullard said that “we do have a new framework we did say that we would allow inflation to run above target for some time, but not this much above target.”“I think that there is worry that we’re doing more damage than helping with the asset purchases because there is an incipient housing bubble in the U.S. The median house price, at least the number I saw, was approaching $400,000,” he said. “We got into a lot of trouble in the mid-2000s by being too complacent about housing prices, so I think we want to be very careful on that this time around.”And not only does Bullard want the taper to begin immediately, but he’s advocating for net-zero asset purchases by the end of Q1 2022.Please see below:Source: CNBCS&P 500 – A Correction Coming?Furthermore, as the taper drama unfolded on Aug. 26, equity investors responded with expected disdain and the negativity ushered the USD Index back above 93. More importantly, though, with the gold price exhibiting strong negative correlations with the U.S. dollar, a profound correction of the S&P 500 could capsize the PMs. To explain, while the general stock market suffered another bout of volatility, the S&P 500 hasn’t recorded a two-month decline in nearly 10 months. For context, it’s the fourth-longest streak on record.Please see below:Moreover, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing PMI is highly correlated with the S&P 500. And with the former falling from its recent high and poised to turn lower in the coming months, the S&P 500 may find itself running out of upside catalysts.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in the ISM’s manufacturing PMI, while the light blue line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the S&P 500. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the former’s decline has already outpaced the latter’s. And with Bank of America predicting that the ISM’s manufacturing PMI (in YoY terms) will turn negative by October, the S&P 500 may follow in its footsteps.Adding to Wall Street’s trepidation, Morgan Stanley also expects a profound correction. Chief equity strategist Michael Wilson told clients on Aug. 20 that unprecedented fiscal spending fueled “a hotter but shorter cycle” and that a reversion to the mean could hammer the S&P 500 in the coming months.He wrote:“With Congress expeditiously providing record amounts of fiscal stimulus last year, the table was set for a major consumer stand against the downturn. Fast forward 16 months and it's fair to say the US consumer has not disappointed. But, after a year of remarkable resilience from the US consumer, it begs the question: ‘Is it sustainable?’ While there is little doubt about the US consumers' willingness to spend, the other key variable to consider is their ability to spend.”Please see below:To explain, the dark blue line above tracks the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), while the light blue line above tracks the S&P 500’s consumer discretionary/consumer staples ratio. When the light blue line is rising, it means that consumer discretionary companies (cyclicals) are outperforming staples (risk on). Conversely, when the light blue line is falling, it means that consumer staples companies (defensives) are outperforming consumer discretionary (risk off). If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light blue line has already rolled over. And with the dark blue line now at a 2021 low, the ratio has plenty of catching up to do. Moreover, with the cyclical basket home to some of the S&P 500’s most expensive stocks outside of the technology sector, an unwinding of the excess could have a profound impact on the USD Index, and therefore, the performance of the PMs.As further evidence, with investors throwing caution to the wind, the S&P 500 is running low on capital.Please see below:Source: Bank of AmericaTo explain, the dark blue line above tracks the S&P 500, while the gold line above tracks the net free credit balances held in investors’ cash and margin accounts (data from FINRA). In a nutshell: it’s the amount of purchasing power (cash and debt) that investors can use to buy more stocks. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that historical lows in investors’ net free credit balances often coincide with historical peaks in the S&P 500. More importantly, though, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that investors’ net free credit balances are easily at an all-time low. As a result, with the bulls all in and little dry powder available to accelerate the momentum, the S&P 500’s pain could turn into the USD Index’s gain.Volatile Times AheadFinally, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) – which measures the expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days – surging by more than 12% on Aug. 26, seasonal signals imply that uncertainty could reign supreme over the next few months.Please see below:To explain, the blue bars above track the average value for the VIX during each month of the year. If you analyze the arrow in the middle, you can see that VIX spikes often occur in August, September and October. And with this year’s edition coinciding with the Fed’s taper timeline and investors’ all-time high exposure to stocks, the U.S. dollar could be in high demand if (when) volatility erupts.In conclusion, the PMs suffered another pullback on Aug. 26 and their medium-term downtrends remain intact. And while Powell’s presser may result in ‘PMs up, USD Index down’, the short-term sugars highs often have very short shelf lives. Moreover, with the Fed’s taper timeline poised to reach its climax in the coming months and the uproar likely to upend the S&P 500, the USD Index’s medium-term fundamentals remain robust. As a result, the PMs are unlikely to find a true bottom until these developments subside.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Nixon’s Closure of Gold Window Still Supports Gold Prices

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.08.2021 14:58
August marks the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s closure of the gold window, the end of the gold standard that still affects the global economy.It’s been 50 years since one of the most important events in contemporary – or, perhaps, all of – economic history. And, no, I don’t mean the foundation of the Nasdaq stock exchange nor the bankruptcy and nationalization of Rolls-Royce. Half a century ago, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon closed the gold window. It meant that America unilaterally canceled the convertibility of the US dollar to gold. Nixon’s action was a nail in the coffin of the Breton Woods system and the beginning of the current monetary system (or, actually, the current non-system) based on freely floating fiat currencies (the ultimate end of the gold standard came in 1973). So, for the first time in history, money ceased to have any intrinsic value, use value, and any links to the precious metals or other commodities. Humankind has begun an experiment with national fiat monies that weren’t in any, even the loosest way, backed by gold.How did this experiment go then? Not very well… The idea was that unshackling the dollar from gold would allow the Fed to conduct independent and ‘scientific’ monetary policy to boost economic growth and provide full employment while avoiding harmful recessions. Nixon’s shock was also presented as an action that would halt inflation and strengthen the stability of the dollar. As President Nixon promised himself in a television speech on August 15, 1971:The third indispensable element in building the new prosperity is closely related to creating new jobs and halting inflation. We must protect the position of the American dollar as a pillar of monetary stability around the world (…)I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets, except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interests of the United States. (…)The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar.Well, it didn’t work out as planned. The greenback plunged by a third during the 1970s. It also lost a lot of its domestic purchasing power. The average annual inflation rate between August 1971 and May 2021 was almost 4%, generating a cumulative price increase of about 560%. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the Consumer Price Index is now 6.6 times higher than in mid-1971.It means that $1 then is equivalent in purchasing power to about $6.6 today, an increase of $5.6. In other words, a dollar today only purchases less than 18% of what it could buy back then (so, it has lost more than 82%of its purchasing power since 1971). So much about curbing inflation and stabilizing the dollar.Other promises have also been broken. The unemployment rate was, on average, higher, while the GDP growth was slower in the period after 1971. And since Nixon terminated the gold standard, there have been a lot of financial instability and several economic crises, including the stagflation in the 1970s and the global financial crisis in 2008-09.The post-1971 monetary system was good at only one thing: at boosting the money supply and the public debt. Without the gold anchor, the Fed could create money (as well as the Treasury) and spend it more freely than under the gold standard. Indeed, as the chart below shows, both the monetary base and the federal debt have accelerated since the 70s, surging to a level about 650 times greater.Hence, the closure of the gold window still has an impact on the global economy and the precious metals markets. If gold continued to serve as the ultimate money, monetary and fiscal policies would be more rational and the public debt wouldn’t exceed 100% of GDP in peacetime.It means that the lack of the gold standard is, somewhat paradoxically, good for gold prices. When Nixon killed the Breton Woods, some analysts claimed that the price of the yellow metal would decline without being linked to the dollar. As we all know, and as the chart below shows, the opposite happened.Over the past fifty years, the price of gold has soared about 4100% – or more than 7.7% annually, on average. Additionally, given all the instabilities present in the contemporary monetary system based on fiat currencies, unlimited money-printing and monetization of debt, in the long run, the price of gold may only continue its upward trend.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Taper Shock That Never Was

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.08.2021 16:42
Yes, more paring the risk-on bets came yesterday, indiscriminately taking down stocks (tech and value alike), oil and copper. The overall shape of the consolidation in real assets (commodities and precious metals) remains bullish though – it‘s mainly in the S&P 500 that the hanging man candle is giving me a pause – temporarily lower stock prices would be favored by the VIX too.Regardless of that:(…) Margin debt is contracting, M2 not exactly at the prior rates of growth, but celebrations in the paper and real asset markets largely go on. Gold and silver are understandably lagging in the drummed up taper expectations, but I‘m not looking for any kind of dramatic statement from the Fed. The two steps forward, one step backwards melodrama is likely to continue into the September FOMC, and even that may very well leave the markets guessing. The Fed is in no position to tighten, the economic recovery is likely to continue, and the central bank won‘t kill it – which means continuous noises, and data dependecy as they like to call it.What we have seen thus far, and are likely to see next, are stealth real attempts to test the markets‘ tolerance to the continuing monetary largesse to the extent permitted by actual fiscal realities (nice qualifier to say „don‘t expect too much“), verbal interventions projecting the (sooner than anticipated, and most importantly, actually viable in the marketplace) taper (and later tightening) images while seeing the dollar hovering in a position of relative strength (useful tool to take on cost inflation). Make no mistake, Powell is keen to cement his legacy, and that doesn‘t involve succumbing to the hawkish (ehm, considered as hawkish in our loose monetary era) calls during a slowdown in the real economy growth.As I wrote in the extensive daily analysis a week ago:(…) Taking on inflation through the dollar doesn‘t come without its own risks, though – while taking down commodities a notch or two, global growth would face headwinds too. Treasury yield spreads aren‘t yet thankfully signalling more slowdown ahead – yields look ready to keep chopping, and only very gradually to start rising again. Rising greenback though isn‘t a silver bullet in extinguishing inflation given still stubborn rent prospects (it‘s one third of CPI) and wage pressures, let alone mounting supply chain issues when it comes to smooth international shipping (yes, China terminals restrictions etc). And I‘m not even raising corona anymore but look for the official start of flu season (Sep 15) to get interesting, if you know what I mean.As you can see, there are plenty of potential headwinds, and Monday‘s slowdown in PMIs illustrates that perfectly. The Fed will continue walking a fine line, not willing to rock the (stock market namely) boat too much. They‘ve done a good job in preparing the markets for the taper, and should they decide to actually start it in Sep or Oct, it wouldn‘t make for a smooth market experience.The risks of a policy mistake are still with us, and that‘s why I‘m not looking for overly courageous and ambitious taper path taken. Whenever taper comes, it‘s going to momentarily shock, but a keen eye would be cast so that it doesn‘t derail the status quo.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStocks aren‘t willing to move too much, but their current position is perilous. Short-term perilous as the willingness to rebound off last week‘s lows shows.Credit MarketsCredit markets are sending conflicting signals, highlighting risk-on trades‘ vulnerability, but an actual downswing in these hasn‘t happened yet. A taper surprise would do the job, and close the shears wide open between HYG and the rest of the crowd.Gold, Silver and MinersQuite some bullish consolidations going on in gold and silver – their bullish flag approximations are ready to spring higher once the taper uncertainty gets removed to a degree. As I wrote yesterday, my bet was still on not too much downside followed by shaking off whatever little clarity is introduced by the Fed. Crude OilSo far so good for the bulls – the brief time for a short in oil came and went. The rebound is unlikely to roll over to the downside hard and fast.CopperCopper consolidates even more bullishly than oil does – the 50-day moving average resistance will be challenged soon again.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos keep on consolidating, and just as precious metals, aren‘t rolling over to the downside in the least. Fresh upleg looks approaching.SummaryI‘m looking for the risk-on trades to continue performing well, in spite of any Jackson Hole curveballs introduced. The thinning monetary fuel air at markets‘ disposal would power different assets more selectively than was the case in first half of 2021, though.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Silver is a real purchasing power

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.08.2021 17:24
You get bombarded with financial terms and economic and historical theories that make the mysteries of the market even harder to decipher. In effect, market workings aren’t as difficult to understand. They are psychological in nature and, when left alone, regulate themselves quite efficiently. We mean to say that without outside interference, the market is like a breath, and prices go up, sideways, down, sideways, and up again. It is a pendulum from averages to extremes and again returns to the mean. Once interfered, things get out of whack. One such interference was the abandonment of the gold standard. It served as a limitation to the discretionary monetary policy. It prevented extremes, prevented the economy from running out of breath. Now, silver is a real purchasing power.What do we mean by that? When fiat currency gets a regulating hand not by a free market but the meddling of politics trying to micromanage a market mainly through narrative, manipulation of the psyche of market participants, restraints are out the door. Human greed is taking over and worse, the ego suggesting that we can control an entity like the market with a degree of variables so high that any intervention is speculation at best. Such failing efforts typically turn markets sour..What this means for you is that unnatural extremes are at work, affecting your portfolio disproportional.Easily, an illusion is created to be fooled that one’s monetary gains in the market are plentiful. However, the reality is that when comparing your percentage gains to the actual purchasing power of what this money buys you, a rude awakening is guaranteed.When looking at your monthly expenditures for basic needs like living costs and food, it is astounding why that narrative has not found its way into the news yet. What is real is what precious metals like gold and silver are buying you now and in the future. A change of thinking is necessary to think in real purchasing power and not in percentage gains on fiat currency advancements.S&P 500 in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Too clean:S&P 500 Index in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 28th, 2021.The weekly chart of the S&P 500 above shows how unnatural the growth of the stock market is. Typically, in a self-regulating market, you will find no such clean up-drift. Why would all these companies have doubled in value in a time of economic crisis? Printed money flowing directly into the market has more than doubled the index value in less than 18 months? We would call this rather an upward market crash, where your purchasing power loses value. We are watching the lower green line of the linear regression channel for a price violation. It would indicate a confirmation that exuberance has come to an end and an early indication for watching larger time frame silver entries after a brief steep decline.Monthly Chart, Gold/Silver-Ratio, Ready for an extra boost:Gold/Silver-Ratio, monthly chart as of August 28th, 2021.Another indicator we have an eye on is the gold/silver ratio. We entered the early stages (orange line) of a ratio level where silver might be turning. Consequently, silver could be gaining momentum towards gold. Should prices reach the red box, we aggressively look for a smaller time frame, low-risk silver entry spots.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Bullish between the lines:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 28th, 2021.A monthly look at silver shows a decisive breakout from a multiyear sideways range. Exhausted after a 159% advance, silver is trading within a range again for more than a year. We first had a double bottom, followed by a double top to define the range, and right now, a triple bottom showed strength. This strength could prove to be very significant if held through this month. We identified two essential details as well. For one, the white dotted line shows higher lows on the range lows, indicating strength. And secondly, prices did not return towards the mean(blue line), indicating directional strength as well.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, A bullish tone:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 28th, 2021.Zooming into the daily time frame, we can see that we have entered into a short-term, low-risk advancement window after Friday’s strong close. For one between US$24 and US$24.50, the price finds itself not obstructed by a support/ resistance zone. Secondly, from a fractal volume analysis point (green histogram to the right of the chart), prices can also advance easier between the prices of US$23.90 and US$ 25.15. There are two edges derived from this data. A significant fending off the low range from US$23 to US$24 will make a strong point for higher timeframes if this month closes above US$24.25 and a bullish tone for the upcoming week.Silver is a real purchasing power:Precisely 50 years ago, Richard Nixon gave up the gold standard. And greed got yet again hold on to the market. We find these extremes in the stock market unsustainable and investments into the precious metal sector to be a prudent hedge for balancing your REAL purchasing power. Probabilities speak against a long-term outcome that human nature finds its way naturally back to the mean. More likely, we crash as we have in the past. A scenario that can result in a rude awakening for the many who trusted in narratives well-orchestrated. Most follow their intuitions to hold on to outdated paradigms at a time when buying insurance in the form of physical precious metal investments is one’s safest bet.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.By Korbinian Koller|August 29th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Profiting From Financial Stress Abating

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.08.2021 14:57
Powell didn‘t disappoint… Wall Street, that is. The hazy taper silhouette remains just that, and his speech brought more implicit assurances that any dreaded hawkish turn, which was what the markets were clearly fearing given the jubilee thereafter. Practically everything caught a spark – tech, value, amazingly smallcaps, silver, gold, copper, a little lagging oil. It‘ll take a while for the currently undervalued emerging markets to catch up – look for that to happen once the dollar bids farewell to its trading range (it looks getting ready to test its lower border, in due time).Credit market spreads haven‘t yet decidedly turned, but it‘s my view they‘re in the process of doing so, in confirmation of the medium-term risk-on turn. The 10-year to 2-year, or to 3-month, all signal that the financial stress of recent weeks is abating. While stocks went sideways, commodities took it on the chin while precious metals and cryptos stood kind of in between. September taper surpise appears banished, so look for more of Friday‘s dynamic to have the upper hand.The leading indicators‘ slowdown, strained supply chains and need for replenishment of investories almost across the board, is though set to carry the bull markets ahead – as stated in Friday‘s extensive analysis, Fed isn‘t interested in pulling the rug from beneath. It‘s still more about sweet sugar than bitter medicine, so look for the reasonably loose monetary conditions to continue. Reasonably – what‘s that, is always in the eye of the beholder.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStocks welcomed the pleasantly dovish tone with open arms – path of least resistance remains sideways to up no matter the distance from the 50-day moving average.Credit MarketsCredit markets got back behind the stock market upswing, and while the quality debt instruments are underperforming, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls.Gold, Silver and MinersGold, silver and miners are catching up in the risk-on moves, as immediate monetary policy uncertainty is removed, and remain primed for more gains.Crude OilCrude oil bulls dutifully stepped in, but the upswing wavered a little. Neither the volume was stellar, but prices are likely to trade up over the next few days. I‘m a bit on guard though as consolidation around $68 may continue beforehand.CopperCopper participated in the risk-on moves more vigorously than oil, and looks likely to leave the 50-day moving average in the dust before the week is over.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos keep on consolidating, base building, making mostly higher highs and higher lows. It appears only a question of time before the fresh upleg comes. SummaryRisk-on traders had a field day on Friday, and are well positioned to extend gains over this week. Jackson Hole didn‘t bring any curveballs, and Powell made sure that smooth sailing ahead is in our immediate future.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bittersweet Truth for Gold Stocks: What You Need to Know

Bittersweet Truth for Gold Stocks: What You Need to Know

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.08.2021 15:42
When the Fed entices grown up kids with sweet words, they hit the candy store and stock up on gold, silver, and stocks. A sugar hangover follows.Beware of the candyman!With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performing his usual dovish dance on Aug. 27, gold, silver, and mining stocks were like kids in a candy store. However, with the short-term sugar highs often leaving investors with nasty stomach aches, the sweet-and-sour nature of the precious metals’ performances may lead to pre-Halloween hangovers.HUI Index: Harbinger of Things to ComeTo explain, while the HUI Index invalidated the breakdown below its previous lows, the bullish reversal may seem quite sanguine. However, an identical development occurred in 2013 right before the index continued its sharp decline. Moreover, I warned previously that the HUI Index could record a corrective upswing of 4% to 8% (that’s what happened after the breakdown in 2013) and that it would not change the medium-term implications. And after the index rallied by more than 6% last week, the bounce is nothing to write home about.Furthermore, after recording a similar breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern in 2000, a short-term corrective upswing followed before the HUI Index resumed its swift decline. As a result, gold, silver, and mining stocks may not behave like Jolly Ranchers for much longer.Please see below:What’s more, the vertical, dashed lines above demonstrate how the HUI Index is mirroring its decline from 2012-2013. After a slight buy signal from the stochastic indicator in 2012, the short-term pause was followed by another sharp drawdown. For context, after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff. Thus, the HUI Index is quite likely to decline to its 200-week moving average (or so) before pausing and recording a corrective upswing. That’s close to the 220 level. Thereafter, the index will likely continue its bearish journey and record a final medium-term low some time in December.Furthermore, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. There were several weeks when gold rallied visibly and the HUI Index actually declined modestly. Last week, we finally saw gold miners moving back up along with gold. But just like one swallow doesn’t make a summer, this move up doesn’t change the fact, that in general, performance of gold stocks has been truly terrible.After all, gold stocks are trading close to their previous 2021 lows, while gold is almost right in the middle between its yearly high and its yearly low.And why is this quote so important? Well, because the bearish implications of gold stocks’ extreme underperformance still remain intact.Let’s keep in mind that the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008 as well as in 2012 and 2013. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October 2008, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline so profoundly back then, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, broad head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern. As a reminder, the HUI Index recently completed the same formation.Yes, the HUI Index moved back below the previous lows and the neck level of the formation, which – at face value – means that the formation was invalidated, but we saw a similar “invalidation” in 2000 and in 2013. And then, the decline followed anyway. Consequently, I don’t think that taking the recent move higher at its face value is appropriate. It seems to me that the analogies to the very similar situation from the past are more important.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.GDX and GDXJ ComparisonFor even more confirmation, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the senior miners (GDX) also rallied above the neckline of their bearish H&S pattern. And while Friday’s (Aug. 27) euphoria occurred on high volume, prior volume spikes in buying sentiment actually marked four peaks (or close to) within the last 12 months. Thus, while the bullish bids may push the GDX ETF slightly higher in the near term, history implies that investors’ excitement often does more harm than good.Please see below:In all 4 out of previous 4 cases, the spike-high volume during GDX’s upswing meant a great shorting opportunity.Meanwhile, the junior miners (GDXJ) didn’t invalidate the breakdown below the neckline of their bearish H&S pattern; and Friday’s close still left the GDXJ ETF below its previous lows. Moreover, while the juniors’ future direction following volume spikes isn’t quite as clear as it is with the GDX ETF, more often than not, euphoric spikes are followed by medium-term declines.Please see below:As further evidence, if you analyze the GDXJ ETF’s four-hour chart below, you can see that historical volume spikes (marked by the red vertical dashed lines) nearly always coincide with short-term peaks. As a result, Friday’s rally was more of an event driven surge – courtesy of Powell – and it’s unlikely to disrupt the GDXJ ETF’s medium-term downtrend.Finally, while the GDXJ/GDX ratio moved slightly higher last week, its downtrend also remains intact. For one, when the ratio’s RSI jumped above 50 three times in 2021, it coincided with short-term peaks in gold. Second, the trend in the ratio this year has been clearly down, and there’s no sign of a reversal, especially when you consider that the ratio broke below its 2019 support (which served as resistance in mid-2020). When the same thing happened in 2020, the ratio then spiked even below 1.Please see below:The Bottom Line?If the ratio is likely to continue its decline, then on a short-term basis we can expect it to decline to 1.27 or so. If the general stock market plunges, the ratio could move even lower, but let’s assume that stocks decline moderately (just as they did in the last couple of days) or that they do nothing or rally slightly. They’ve done all the above recently, so it’s natural to expect that this will be the case. Consequently, the trend in the GDXJ to GDX ratio would also be likely to continue, and thus expecting a move to about 1.26 - 1.27 seems rational.If the GDX is about to decline to approximately $28 before correcting, then we might expect the GDXJ to decline to about $28 x 1.27 = $35.56 or $28 x 1.26 = $35.28. In other words, $28 in the GDX is likely to correspond to about $35 in the GDXJ.Is there any technical support around $35 that would be likely to stop the decline? Yes. It’s provided by the late-Feb. 2020 low ($34.70) and the late-March high ($34.84). There’s also the late-April low at $35.63. Conservatively, I’m going to place the profit-take level just above the latter.Consequently, it seems that expecting the GDXJ to decline to about $35 is justified from the technical point of view as well.In conclusion, investors showcased their sweet tooth for gold, silver, and mining stocks on Aug. 27. However, with the USD Index hovering near two key support levels and the yellow metal confronting its second triangle-vertex-based reversal point, the taste may turn bitter over the medium term. Moreover, with prior upswings underwritten by the Fed resulting in lower lows soon after, the precious metals’ bullish behavior is nothing new. As a result, their prior weakness will likely persist before reliable bottoms emerge later this year.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – Dow Jones Tests All-Time High

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 31.08.2021 09:46
US 30 challenges peakThe Dow Jones 30 index holds near its historic high on upbeat investor sentiment.The break above 35330 has signaled the bulls’ commitment to maintain the upward bias, while 35200 is fresh support.An oversold RSI has attracted the buying-the-dips mentality.Price action has recouped the most recent losses and is now testing the peak at 35630. A bullish breakout may extend the rally towards the milestone at 36000. A deeper pullback would lead to the critical floor at 34700.USDJPY awaits breakoutThe Japanese yen inched higher after a drop in July’s unemployment rate. The pair is in a narrowing trading range following its bounce off the demand zone at 109.10.Sentiment remains optimistic as long as price action stays above this critical level.However, the bulls may encounter selling pressure at 110.50 from the August sell-off. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and extend the rally to above 111.00.On the downside, a break below 109.50 would lead to a retest of buyers’ resolve.NZDUSD tests major resistanceThe US dollar continues to weaken across the board from the post-Jackson Hole hangover. The Kiwi is at a crossroads as it climbs back to the daily resistance at 0.7050, the origin of the previous sell-off.A bullish breakout would prompt sellers to cover their bets and lay the groundwork for a reversal.0.7100 would be the next target. However, the RSI’s multiple ventures into the overbought territory may temper the bullish fever.The base of the momentum at 0.6940 is the key to keeping the recovery valid.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold Moves Above $1,800 After Jackson Hole

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 31.08.2021 13:03
The Jackson Hole is over — we left it in the rearview mirror. Gold moved higher in an immediate reaction, but bullish joy may be premature.The 2021 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy” is already a thing of the past. It was a stimulating conference with a few interesting presentations. But the key appearance for the financial markets was Powell’s speech. Let’s dig into it!So, the Fed Chair started his remarks with the observation that even though the pandemic recession was the briefest yet deepest on record, the pace of the recovery has exceeded expectations. That being said, the economic expansion has been uneven, and its continuation is threatened by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, high inflation and the remaining slack in the labor market. However, Powell was generally optimistic about the future, saying that the prospects were good for continued progress toward maximum employment, while the elevated inflation would likely be temporary:The baseline outlook is for continued progress toward maximum employment, with inflation returning to levels consistent with our goal of inflation averaging 2 percent over time.Actually, Powell was so optimistic about the US economy that he stated that the criteria for tapering of the quantitative easing had been met. The key passage from his speech is as follows:We have said that we would continue our asset purchases at the current pace until we see substantial further progress toward our maximum employment and price stability goals, measured since last December, when we first articulated this guidance. My view is that the "substantial further progress" test has been met for inflation. There has also been clear progress toward maximum employment. At the FOMC's recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year. The intervening month has brought more progress in the form of a strong employment report for July, but also the further spread of the Delta variant. We will be carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks. Even after our asset purchases end, our elevated holdings of longer-term securities will continue to support accommodative financial conditions.This passage is clearly hawkish, as it implies that the Fed will probably end its asset purchases this year if nothing bad happens.However, the price of gold futures increased on Friday (after Powell’s remarks) from around $1,790 to almost $1,820, as the chart below shows. Why? Well, it seems that the markets read between the lines and interpreted the Fed Chair’s speech as actually quite dovish, or less hawkish than expected.After all, Powell didn’t present any clear timeline of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Although the Fed Chair mentioned that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year, he also noted some uncertainty about the spread of Delta and its economic aspect.What’s more, Powell reminded the public that the tapering doesn’t automatically imply hiking the federal funds rate, as raising interest rates would require much more progress towards the Fed’s goals:The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test. We have said that we will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level until the economy reaches conditions consistent with maximum employment, and inflation has reached 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. We have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment, and time will tell whether we have reached 2 percent inflation on a sustainable basis.So, we will not see higher interest rates anytime soon, despite higher inflation. This is clearly a dovish signal, and it supports gold prices. After all, the Fed’s monetary policy will remain accommodative, even after the start of tapering. The Fed will still be purchasing assets — the only difference is that it will do so at a slower pace, which means that its balance sheet will remain enormous (see the chart below), implying still large reinvestments of principal repayments.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for the gold market? Well, although Powell stated that the Fed’s test of “substantial further progress” had been met for inflation and suggested that it would soon be met for employment as well, his speech didn’t include any revolutionary insights. And, more importantly, it didn’t include any tapering statement. As a result, gold caught its breath.However, the bullish joy may be premature. The Fed is likely to taper this year, especially if August nonfarm payrolls prove to be strong. Also, the FOMC may issue a tapering statement after its September meeting, announcing the start of reducing the pace of asset purchases in the last quarter of the year. So, the downward pressure on gold prices could stay with us in 2021. On the other hand, the Fed clearly pointed out that the timeline for tapering is not the timeline for interest rates, which could stay at ultra-low levels for months, if not years, working in favor of gold.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Dialing Back the Euphoria

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.08.2021 15:49
Fireworks largely continued yesterday. In stocks, it must be said – but the picture isn‘t one of universal strength as tech and value diverged again. As VIX is trading near the lower end of its recent spectrum, the bulls better wait for when Friday‘s Powell euphoria gets questioned in the markets. The most important turn of last week had been the removal of immediate and hard hitting taper (together with misplaced tightening notions) – now, we‘re enjoying the kiss of life this breathed into quality assets. Quality, that means those in strong, established bull uptrends, and those beaten down a bit too much in the prior whiff of fear.We‘ll have to be selective as the fuel supply powering the „practically everything“ statement below, is getting tighter:(…) The hazy taper silhouette remains just that, and his speech brough more implicit assurances that any dreaded hawkish turn, which was what the markets were clearly fearing given the jubilee thereafter. Practically everything caught a spark – tech, value, amazingly smallcaps, silver, gold, copper, a little lagging oil. It‘ll take a while for the currently undervalued emerging markets to catch up – look for that to happen once the dollar bids farewell to its trading range (it looks getting ready to test its lower border, in due time).Credit markets confirm the risk-on moves to continue – there is no immediate warning to the contrary. But as you‘ll read further on, daily gyrations are likely to come back, and that has implications for the daily rotations between tech and value. Crucially, the dollar isn‘t protesting, and remains subdued. Given the crosscurrent of real economy slowdown in incoming economic data, and inventories replenishment needs amid challenged supply chains, the USD price action hints at the world reserve currency getting ready to welcome lower values. Understandably, that has positive implications for emerging markets as these saw their valuations decline a bit too much.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStrong upswing on the surface, but stocks look likely to consolidate the move next. By consolidate, I mean I am not looking for any kind of overly sharp a drop.Credit MarketsCredit markets are supporting the stock market upswing, but getting a little tired – a brief pause wouldn‘t be unimaginable.Gold, Silver and MinersGold, silver and miners got under modest pressure yesterday, but the silver downswing points to its temporary nature. Precious metals look primed to do better in the coming days.Crude OilCrude oil bulls barely closed the day unchanged, and a modest setback looks likely before higher prices reestablish themselves.CopperCopper is sending even more bullish signals than silver does – don‘t look at the red metal to escape the brief consolidation coming first though.Bitcoin and EthereumAs stated yesterday, cryptos keep on consolidating, base building, making mostly higher highs and higher lows. It appears only a question of time before the fresh upleg comes. SummaryRisk-on trades look to be questioned a little next – what else to expect followintg the Powell dovish speech. Look for it to be a temporary move only though as there isn‘t enought reasons or catalysts to derail the bull market runs.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Sees Limited Rebound

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 01.09.2021 10:44
EURUSD continues to recoverThe US dollar continues to soften from weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment in August.The euro bulls gained confidence after the single currency rallied above 1.1800, an important supply zone from the mid-August sell-off. Now, this has turned into an area of congestion along a rising trendline. Furthermore, it is a clear indication of a bullish bias in the short term.However, an overbought RSI may lead to a limited pullback. A bounce off 1.1795 would propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1900.USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar stalled after the Q2 GDP fell short of expectations. The US counterpart is testing the 30-day moving average and last week’s rebound failed to make an impression.The fall below 1.2580 suggests a lack of buying interest. 1.2500 on the daily chart is a critical floor. A deeper retracement would put buyers on the defense with 1.2300 as a potential target.On the upside, buyers will need to rack up offers at 1.2700 before they could hope for a second chance. Then 1.2900 would be within reach.AUDUSD rises to major resistanceThe Australian dollar edges higher on upbeat Q2 GDP. The pair continues to recover along a rising trendline after it bounced back from the daily demand area near 0.7100.The bullish pace accelerated after the first resistance at 0.7170 was lifted. Buyers are pushing towards the major hurdle at 0.7400 from the daily time frame.A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as medium-term sellers cover their positions. That in turn could end a three-month correction. 0.7290 is fresh support to let the RSI return to neutrality.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Cyclical Nature of Labor Day: Let’s Make Some Money On It!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.09.2021 12:40
The U.S. Labor Day is almost there, and thus the time for gold’s rally is running out. Tick-tock, tick-tock… and then the party stops.Chart analysis is a very interesting activity. You need to keep your mind open, your cognitive and emotional biases at bay, you have to stay humble, as you always have something new to discover, and you might need to change your mind in a flash. Moreover, the indications can arrive from all over the place. You can expect that the key signal will come from this price analysis technique, or that one, or maybe based on the price link between some assets. Or it could even be the case that it will not be the price or volume that will be critical in a given situation… but time.The cyclical nature of many areas of life is present in the markets, and it is usually the case that the seasonal factors have only a mild effect on the prices and other factors are much more important, as they are specific to a given situation. Sometimes, however, we have a recurring event that’s so precise in its implications and so accurate that its importance could dwarf other techniques.This could be the case with gold’s post-U.S.-Labor-Day performance.A poet might say that at that time a golden dolphin jumps joyfully into the air, shining briefly in the evening sun, preparing for a deep and dangerous dive.A data scientist might say that 10 out of 10 efficiency with regard to short-term implications and 8 out of 10 performance with regard to medium-term implications is something that seems opposite to the efficient market theory, even in its weak form.And a trader might say “great! let’s make some money on it!”I’ll let you be the judge as to which approach is best, while I will feature my observations regarding gold’s price performance around the U.S. Labor Day.And yes, I did feature this chart yesterday, but I think I haven’t given enough emphasis on how important it is currently.We’re now less than one week away from the U.S. Labor Day, which is particularly important for the gold price movement.You see, in the previous 10 years, gold almost always declined profoundly right after the U.S. Labor Day — I marked that on the above chart with red, dashed lines. There were only two cases (in 2015 and in 2018) when gold didn’t slide profoundly after that day, but… it was when gold declined in the short term anyway. There was simply no major downswing later.In other words, in all 10 out of the previous 10 years, gold moved lower in the short term after the U.S. Labor Day. Of course, it’s debatable what one describes as the short term. In this case, I mean a period between a few days and a few weeks. Then again, if you look at the chart, it’s clear what we can expect. Please have a look at how far gold usually fell (red lines) and how far it fell during the exceptionally bullish years when it declined just in the short run.This is very important, as it tells us that even if gold doesn’t decline this week, it will be very likely to do so based on this surprisingly accurate cyclicality.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

The Bitcoin train left the station

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.09.2021 13:31
Some of these sub-trends are:El Salvador is about to integrate bitcoin as a legal tender.The Cuban Central Bank is working on rule implementation for the use of bitcoin.Venezuela is for a while now using crypto to fight hyperinflation.Iran has dabbled with bitcoin usage.Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, BNY Mellon, and Goldman Sachs have been moving aggressively into the crypto space, both in acquiring actual exposure to Bitcoin like purchasing Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust shares and investing in solutions for their firms.Hotels around the world start implementing bitcoin payments as an option for their guests.So, governments, banks, and corporate businesses are in. Who does that leave out?BTC-USD, Daily Chart, What is the holdup?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 31st, 2021.In charts as well, it can be observed that participation has changed trading behavior. After three legs up and a 72% up move, bitcoin, as seen in the daily chart above, is not getting rejected from the big 50k mark. With an eye on the yellow box, one can see that despite the extended move, multiple tests of the highs, and a resistance zone based on transactional volume, bitcoin clings to the top of the range for a mere eleven sessions. Any bear attempt so far has been met by a counterattack of the bulls. It is a far cry from typical bitcoin trading behavior.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Slowly churning:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 31st, 2021.Stepping up a time frame, we see a different picture. After five consecutive steep green bars up, a Doji formed that typically is a breather and a sign of uncertainty. Consequently, it invites bears to step in aggressively for a low-risk entry to push prices quickly lower. Especially noteworthy is that a fractal volume analysis (green histogram to the right of the chart) provides for a strong distribution zone at US$ 49,250, typically an edge bears to lean on as a support for their efforts to push prices lower. All in all, typical behavior of bitcoin in a situation like this, but much slower than usual. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, A healthy trend:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 31st, 2021.Again zooming out to a larger time frame, the monthly one, we can see that bitcoins latest up-move over the last year and a half has merely produced a single initial leg. After a minor retracement, we are starting to form out the early stages of the second leg right now. Consequently, the underlying bullish tone in lower time frames is natural.We have chosen a logarithmic chart presentation for a better representation of the actual percentage moves. Consequently, we can make out that, measured by past performance (orange directional lines), a projection for a much higher price level is to be likely.The Bitcoin train left the station:Speculators bought at US$3, professionals at US$3,000, and big business at $30,000. This train is in motion now, and it would take a powerful force to stop it. More likely, it will stop at fewer and fewer train stations and become harder to board from both a psychological and trading perspective. Do not wait for this to turn into a bullet train with fewer low-risk opportunities.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 1st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

We‘re Not Done Yet

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.09.2021 15:54
Creeping deterioration gave way to early selling that took S&P 500 to 4,515, but no further. The bears fumbled again, and credit markets don‘t look like giving them another opportunity (judging by yesterday‘s close). VIX barely moved higher, and the shape of daily sectoral rotations doesn‘t favor a larger decline. Some meandering sideways to up as I wrote yesterday, for sure though.Today‘s ADP employment change isn‘t likely to be favorable to the roaring economy story, but the deceleration of economic growth should still prove temporary – the credit spreads point to a revival that‘s coinciding with financial stress abating. As the Fed isn‘t likely to pull the rug from underneath, the slow grind higher in paper and real assets, is about to continue as financial markets remain the destination for the fresh money created. And no shaddow tapering of M2 or debt ceiling is likely to change that. Moreover, look for inflation woes to keep gaining steam and prominence going into the year end – an ever bigger problem for 2022 and the years ahead. The dollar isn‘t in a position to take too much of the cost pressures off, and the job market isn‘t either:(…) Crucially, the dollar isn‘t protesting, and remains subdued. Given the crosscurrent of real economy slowdown in incoming economic data, and inventories replenishment needs amid challenged supply chains, the USD price action hints at the world reserve currency getting ready to welcome lower values. Understandably, that has positive implications for emerging markets as these saw their valuations decline a bit too much.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookYesterday‘s consolidation looks to have done the job thus far, and the bulls are likely to embrace even a poor jobs figure as that indicates the Fed wouldn‘t likely even think about taking the punchbowl away a little.Credit MarketsCredit markets are facing daily crossroads – either HYG consolidates without meaningful downside breaking below yesterday‘s lows while quality debt instruments rebound, or the high yield corporate bonds would show daily weakness and join LQD and TLT. An outcome closer to the first scenario is more likely in my view.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and gold miners scored an upswing yesterday, and the price recovery is likely to go on. The headline risk is certainly to the upside these weeks.Crude OilCrude oil keeps consolidating without rolling to the downside. There isn‘t too much conviction behind yesterday‘s downswing, making the market positioned for an upside surprise.CopperCRB Index is pointing lower, but copper stubbornly held ground. That‘s not likely to stay that way, but I‘m looking for any dip to be reversed relatively soon, and not to take the red metal below the 50-day moving average for too long.Bitcoin and EthereumIf there is one thing that Ethereum performance shows, it‘s that there‘s a lot of life in cryptos, but Bitcoin isn‘t reaping the rewards at the moment. Look for the upswing to continue, and for Bitcoin to join in eventually.SummaryRisk-on trades still appear to be questioned some more – yesterday‘s move didn‘t convince one way or the other. After the taper uncertainty got tapered, look for attention to shift to the real economy growth. Underneath the surface, the potential for precious metals to take cue from any hiccup and rebound, is increasing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Surging Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.09.2021 14:17
US home prices are surging, increasingly raising worries about inflation. Could gold follow houses? If so, why?Home price growth in the US has accelerated even further, reaching a new record. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose from 255.3 in May to 260.9 in June, boosting the annual percentage gain from 16.8% to 18.1%, as the chart below shows. That’s the largest jump since 1988 when the series began.Why is it so important? Well, for two reasons. First, such quick growth in home prices increases the risk of a housing bubble and all related economic problems. Please note that home prices are surging now even faster than in the 2000s, which ended in a financial crisis and the Great Recession.Second, rallying home prices add to the inflationary pressure. What’s important, this year’s impressive home inflation hasn’t shown up in the CPI yet. It will though, as increases in house prices translate into housing inflation, which lifts consumer price measures. This effect may be substantial, given that shelter represents one-third of the overall CPI and about 40% of the core CPI.Indeed, the recent research from the Dallas Fed, entitled “Surging House Price Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation”, finds that rising housing prices are usually a leading indicator for rents that are included in the CPI. According to the authors, the correlation between house price growth and rent inflation is the strongest with about an 18-month lag. It means that rent inflation is likely to increase substantially over the next two years, contributing materially to consumer price indexes:Our forecasting model shows that rent inflation and OER inflation are expected to increase materially in 2022 and 2023. Given their weights in the core PCE price index (which excludes food and energy), rent and OER together are expected to contribute about 0.6 percentage points to 12-month core PCE inflation for 2022 and about 1.2 percentage points for 2023. These forecasts also suggest that rising inflation for rent and OER could push the overall and core PCE inflation rates above 2 percent in 2023, when current supply bottlenecks and labor shortages may have subsided.So, this research suggests that inflation could stay significantly above the Fed’s target in the coming years and that it might be more persistent than it’s widely believed by the central bankers and Wall Street. In other words, the Fed’s own research suggests that the US central bank might be wrong in claiming that inflation will prove to be temporary – after all, the core inflation is expected to stay above 2%, even when supply-side disruptions resolve.Importantly, soaring home prices are not the only factor adding to inflation worries. Another one is the fall in consumer confidence in August, partly because of stronger expectations of inflation. According to the Conference Board, consumers’ inflation expectations over the next year increased from 6.6% in July to 6.8% in August.Last but not least, inflation in the Eurozone has also surged recently. It soared from 2.2% in July to 3% in August, far above expectations and the ECB’s target. The global character of inflation (although it’s stronger in the US) suggests that it’s not caused merely by idiosyncratic factors (as Powell claims), but rather by the combination of supply-side disturbances and demand factors, such as an increase in the money supply entering the economy through consumer spending.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for the gold market? Well, rising home prices imply that inflation will be higher in the future than widely expected. Higher inflation could increase the demand for gold as an inflation hedge. It’s also the best guarantee that real interest rates will stay low, which should support gold. More persistent inflation increases the odds of stagflation, gold’s favorite macroeconomic environment.However, higher inflation could force the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance and, for example, accelerate its tapering of quantitative easing, which could exert some downward pressure on gold. Actually, this is what is happening right now. Given high inflation, low bond yields and the US dollar in a sideways trend, gold seems undervalued to many analysts. On the other hand, the narrative about transitory inflation combined with the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle could make gold struggle.Having said that, gold has recently managed to return above $1,800 again, while September is historically a good month for gold. So, we will see – this month’s FOMC meeting could be crucial in determining the yellow metal’s path.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Natural Gas: How Are Futures And ETFs Correlated?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 02.09.2021 16:50
Buckle up, time for a ride to the energy ETFs’ world. If you've ever wondered how to trade the energy markets – read on, you are in the right place!Correlation AnalysisFor the sake of this study, we will take the Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) futures contract as a parameter and draw the correlations on each ETF chart to better visualize their relationship.United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG):“This fund offers exposure to one of the America’s most important commodities, natural gas, and potentially has appeal as an inflation hedge. While natural gas may be appealing, UNG often suffers from severe contango making the product more appropriate for short-term traders.” (ETFdb.com)As you can see on the chart below, the correlation coefficient remains 1 all the time, which is an indication of a perfectly correlated asset to the Henry Hub Natural Gas futures.To read more about Contango versus Backwardation, I suggest checking these out:o   “Trading the Curve in Energies” (CME Group);o   “What is Contango and Backwardation” (CME Group).ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD):“This ETF offers 2x daily inverse leveraged exposure to natural gas, an asset class that is capable of delivering big swings in price over a relatively short period of time. Combining this volatility with explicit leverage results in a fund that has the potential to churn out big gains or losses, meaning that KOLD is really only appropriate for sophisticated, active investors.” (ETFdb.com)This instrument is particularly useful when you want to short-sell natural gas with leverage of 2:1. So, buying it (w/ a long position) is equivalent to short/selling the underlying asset. As you can see on the chart below, the correlation this time is perfectly inverted (or negative).ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL):“This ETF offers 2x daily leveraged exposure to natural gas, an asset class that is capable of delivering big swings in price over a relatively short period of time. Combining this volatility with explicit leverage results in a fund that has the potential to churn out big gains or losses, meaning that BOIL is really only appropriate for sophisticated, active investors.” (ETFdb.com)This instrument is very similar to the first one — the only difference is, you can buy natural gas with leverage of 2:1.United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund LP (UNL):“This fund offers exposure to one of the America’s most important commodities, natural gas, and potentially has appeal as an inflation hedge. Unlike many commodity products UNL diversifies across multiple maturities, potentially mitigating the adverse impact of contango.” (ETFdb.com)This fund is similar to the first one (UNG), but more adapted to longer-term traders.iPath Series B Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN (GAZ):“This ETN is one of the options available to investors looking to establish exposure to natural gas prices through futures contracts. As such, this product isn’t very useful for those building a long-term, buy-and-hold portfolio; its appeal will be to those looking to express an outlook on movements in natural gas prices over the short term. There are several noteworthy elements of this product. First, GAZ is an ETN, meaning that investors are exposed to the credit risk of the issuer. Second, this ETN won’t generally correspond to changes in spot natural gas prices, as the underlying index is comprised of futures contracts (in many cases, the difference over extended periods of time can be significant). GAZ is really only appropriate for those with a short holding period; investors seeking longer-term exposure to natural gas may want to consider NAGS or UNL. Finally, this ETN has often traded at a significant premium to NAV historically as a result of limitations on the number of shares outstanding; before establishing a position, take careful note of the relationship of price to NAV.” (ETFdb.com)This instrument is actually an exchange-traded note (ETN) for short-term traders.To better understand the difference between ETFs & ETNs, I suggest that you read:o   “Exchange-Traded Notes (ETN) Definition” (Investopedia);o   “ETF vs. ETN: What's the Difference?” (Investopedia).In summary, you can trade natural gas with high leverage (NG futures), little leverage (BOIL/KOLD), no leverage at all (UNG/UNL) or via an ETN (GAZ). You have various options to adopt depending on your personality, risk appetite, and trading strategy. So, let’s get rolling!The ETFs I listed are definitely worth looking at, but it’d be too easy if I just listed them – anyone can do that. I do the hard work and give you signals and ideas on entry and exit points, as well as assets to use. That’s my job, that’s what I do best, and it’s that knowledge that makes the difference. It’s all found in the premium version. Benefit today and sign up to get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – USD To Break Out Of Range

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 03.09.2021 09:05
USDCHF awaits catalystThe US dollar consolidates as traders reposition themselves ahead of nonfarm payrolls.The pair has been changing hands in a narrow range between 0.9100 and 0.9200. Multiple attempts at both ends suggest a lack of commitment.A catalyst-driven breakout would dictate the direction for the days to come. A rally would test the recent peak at 0.9240, a prerequisite for a reversal above 0.9300.On the downside, a sell-off may dampen optimism and lead to a retest of the demand zone at 0.9050.XAGUSD tests major resistanceBullions await a breakout as Treasury yields stabilize going into today’s high-impact jobs report.Silver’s recovery above the psychological level of 24.00 has attracted more buying interest. However, the price has met resistance at the supply zone near 24.35, which coincides with the 30-day moving average.A bullish breakout would trigger an extended rally as sellers rush to cover. Then 25.00 would be the next target.However, a plunge below 23.80 may cause a correction towards the daily support at 23.00.NAS 100 shows exhaustionThe Nasdaq 100 holds onto the high ground as investors ponder how the labor data may affect the QE.The index is looking to extend gains from the all-time high of 15700. Nonetheless, sentiment remains bullish with signs of overextension.An RSI bearish divergence is a heads-up that a correction might be due. A break below 15520 may pull the trigger and 15300 on the 20-day moving average would be an important support.On the upside, 15800 would be the immediate target if the bulls can keep up with the momentum.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Bond Conundrum - Boom or Bust for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.09.2021 16:12
Inflation has risen, but bond yields have declined. Such a divergence is strange — beware gold bulls!Would you like to see something mysterious? If yes, please look at the chart below. It shows the yields on 10-year US Treasuries (red line) and CPI annual inflation rates (blue line) in recent years. As you can see, a huge divergence emerged this year: while inflation surged above 5%, nominal bond yields declined from 1.6% to 1.3%.Why is it so strange? Well, economic theory says that when inflation goes up, it erodes the purchasing power of bonds’ coupon payments. Thus, the price of bonds declines, and yields increase. In other words, when inflation accelerates, investors demand higher inflation premium to protect their real returns.But now we can observe rising inflation and declining bond yields at the same time. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is 1.3%, which is 4 percentage points below the inflation rate, so investors who buy bonds lose a lot of money in real terms. Something is clearly wrong here. Let’s solve this bond conundrum!The first potential explanation is that bond investors trust the Fed and believe that high inflation is mainly transitory. If so, the bond yields are more or less accurate and could stay around current low levels, and the inflation rates will adjust. The supply disruptions caused by the pandemic will eventually resolve, while the Fed is going to tighten its monetary policy, adding to disinflationary forces.At first glance, the scenario in which inflation is declining seems to be negative for the yellow metal, as it implies lower demand for gold as an inflation hedge. However, in this case, interest rates could stay at very low levels for a long time. And gold likes the environment of low yields.The second possible reason for the decline in interest rates is that bond investors expect slower economic growth than previously thought. Indeed, recent data suggests that the pace of GDP growth could be peaking. The spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus, smaller infrastructure plan than initially outlined, a slowdown in China’s economic growth and the Fed’s tightening cycle – all these factors could soften the US growth prospects, translating into lower yields.It goes without saying that this scenario would be very positive for gold prices. High inflation plus a slowdown in economic growth equals stagflation, a dream environment for gold. However, the stock market didn’t weaken, as one could expect after a downward revision of investors’ growth prospects. On the other hand, the spread between yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has narrowed substantially since March, as the chart below shows. The flattening of the yield curve often indicates a slowdown in economic growth.But it’s also possible that technical factors or the central bank’s interventions trumped the fundamentals. Strong demand for the US Treasuries that pushed yields down despite rising inflation could be the case here. After all, the Fed has been purchasing $80 billion a month in Treasuries (and $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds) since June 2020. In other words, quantitative easing could disrupt the functioning of the bond market.Indeed, the unprecedentedly easy monetary policy conditions with ultra-low interest rates and abundant liquidity could explain why both stock and bond prices are so high right now (and bond yields so low). In an environment of negative real interest rates created by Powell and his colleagues, asset managers search for yield in every possible asset, even if it is not economically viable — including cryptocurrencies that are just memes (like Dogecoin) or bonds with yields lower than inflation rates.What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, I have good and bad news. So, the bad news is that the real interest rates seem to be excessively low (see the chart below) and they are likely to move up over the economic expansion (especially when the Fed tightens its monetary stance), whereas inflation expectations could ease somewhat later this year. Unfortunately for gold bulls, the increase in the real interest rates would likely push gold prices lower.The good news is that that an increase in interest rates would put the governments and other debtors in a very difficult position, potentially leading to a debt crisis. Asset valuations could decline and financial crisis could follow suit. In other words, the Fed’s tightening cycle could sow the seeds of another recession and rally in gold.Having said that, we have just recovered from one economic crisis, and it will take some time for another to unfold. Until that happens, real interest rates may normalize somewhat without entailing substantial perturbations, which would be negative for gold prices.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Feeling the Heat of Slowing Economy

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.09.2021 16:17
S&P 500 got ahead of itself early in the session, and corrected somewhat. Credit markets though didn‘t paint a picture of caution – it‘s risk on there. VIX didn‘t make much progress rising or falling, but today‘s NFPs day would bring a more eventful trajectory. I‘m not looking for any meaningful derailment of the reflation trades – yesterday‘s outperformance of value vs. tech, was encouraging just as much as CRB getting back within spitting distance of prior highs. The market sentiment appears to be up, and yesterday‘s moves telegraph no disappointment expected, just as I tweeted prior to the data release. The real economy recovery still has reasonable traction, and while slowing down, the financial stress is abating – and the steady return of risk appetite in smallcaps, emerging markets, oil or copper, highlight that just as much as the dollar getting under pressure again.But the figure came at 235k vs. 720k expectated – that‘s a serious undershoot. Off the bat, gold and silver would benefit tremendously, while the dollar not so much. Let‘s see how well the corresponding rise in Treasury yields would help to underpin the world reserve currency and value stocks…In short, forget about tapering into a weakening economy that doesn‘t see labor participation or hours worked rising. The Fed won‘t take that gamble soon, and we know what that means for real assets (and stocks too as inflation and yields aren‘t yet breaking the bull) – fresh money finding its way into financial markets, lifting prices. Time to reap the rewards as I did overnight in the oil arena, or keep doing in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookYesterday brought higher prices and tight range in S&P 500 while Nasdaq declined on the risk-on moves returning to the stock and bond markets.Credit MarketsCredit markets strongly turned up. And the HYG-LQD-TLT dynamics is conducive to further gains in value stocks especially. Simply put, the quality instruments upturn has been encouraging.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are approaching decision time, and I‘ve been for many days looking for an upside surprise – the bulls are likely to attend to it really soon.Crude OilCrude oil bulls took the opportunity, and ran with it – the oil sector reasonably confirms the upswing.CopperCRB Index continues its strong recovery, and copper won‘t remain below the 50-day moving average for too long – look for the red metal to shake off the August blues.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are springing higher again, and Bitcoin is joining in while I look for Ethereum to lead.SummaryEven though NFPs disappointed, risk-on trades should welcome the Fed‘s inability to taper, which would help Treasury yields rise. Precious metals, cryptos and real assets will likely be today‘s clear winners while stocks consolidate. As I wrote yesterday, no fresh Fed speculations were invited by today‘s data.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Feeling the Heat of Slowing Economy - 03.09.2021

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.09.2021 16:22
S&P 500 got ahead of itself early in the session, and corrected somewhat. Credit markets though didn‘t paint a picture of caution – it‘s risk on there. VIX didn‘t make much progress rising or falling, but today‘s NFPs day would bring a more eventful trajectory. I‘m not looking for any meaningful derailment of the reflation trades – yesterday‘s outperformance of value vs. tech, was encouraging just as much as CRB getting back within spitting distance of prior highs. The market sentiment appears to be up, and yesterday‘s moves telegraph no disappointment expected, just as I tweeted prior to the data release. The real economy recovery still has reasonable traction, and while slowing down, the financial stress is abating – and the steady return of risk appetite in smallcaps, emerging markets, oil or copper, highlight that just as much as the dollar getting under pressure again.But the figure came at 235k vs. 720k expectated – that‘s a serious undershoot. Off the bat, gold and silver would benefit tremendously, while the dollar not so much. Let‘s see how well the corresponding rise in Treasury yields would help to underpin the world reserve currency and value stocks…In short, forget about tapering into a weakening economy that doesn‘t see labor participation or hours worked rising. The Fed won‘t take that gamble soon, and we know what that means for real assets (and stocks too as inflation and yields aren‘t yet breaking the bull) – fresh money finding its way into financial markets, lifting prices. Time to reap the rewards as I did overnight in the oil arena, or keep doing in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookYesterday brought higher prices and tight range in S&P 500 while Nasdaq declined on the risk-on moves returning to the stock and bond markets.Credit MarketsCredit markets strongly turned up. And the HYG-LQD-TLT dynamics is conducive to further gains in value stocks especially. Simply put, the quality instruments upturn has been encouraging.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are approaching decision time, and I‘ve been for many days looking for an upside surprise – the bulls are likely to attend to it really soon.Crude OilCrude oil bulls took the opportunity, and ran with it – the oil sector reasonably confirms the upswing.CopperCRB Index continues its strong recovery, and copper won‘t remain below the 50-day moving average for too long – look for the red metal to shake off the August blues.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are springing higher again, and Bitcoin is joining in while I look for Ethereum to lead.SummaryEven though NFPs disappointed, risk-on trades should welcome the Fed‘s inability to taper, which would help Treasury yields rise. Precious metals, cryptos and real assets will likely be today‘s clear winners while stocks consolidate. As I wrote yesterday, no fresh Fed speculations were invited by today‘s data.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Silver, the big picture

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 04.09.2021 09:47
We have all heard it, and we have all done it—the typical mistakes of trading. We ran stops, over traded, shadow traded, ignored probabilities, traded too large, and revenge traded. In addition, we ignored even the bluntest signals the market sent, like ill-liquidity, volatility, and chop. What is a lot less spoken about is the lack of a big picture. Yet, ignoring the larger time frame players who rule and steam over small-time frame setups is one of the most detrimental influences on your trading if ignored. Silver, the big picture.The problem stems from the difficulty of prediction. The further an event is in the future, the harder it is to predict. This fact lures amateurs to the smaller time frames in the desire to be correct. In addition, trade frequency is higher the smaller the time frame regarding signal generation. That makes smaller time frames more alluring since there is more action. Nevertheless, the long-term plays provide for the big profits and regarding silver physical acquisition right now is favorable.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, the big picture:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 3rd, 2021.We find traditional value in a fundamentally large time frame analysis first. A story, if you will, that supports what charts are showing us. Regarding the monthly view above, we nearly had a decade where metals weren’t favored, which ended with last year’s lockdown. The lesser talked about underlying current for a bullish narrative is that many raw materials are needed for the decarbonization process. Consequently, in addition to inflation and a supply to demand disbalance, we have another reason for continuing this first burst to new highs. With news shining a light on the neglected commodity sector as a whole and silver especially, we will also see at these lower levels after the new highs to be attractive to investors woken up by news and trying to step in here for cheap.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, great risk-reward ratios:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of September 3rd, 2021.Another aspect we find significant from a more broad view is that due to new Covid variants, another lockdown is a possibility. Consequently, this is a probability for another trigger point. Precious metals might shoot out of their last 13 months range to reach new all-time highs.The chart above shows projections that allow for guesstimated risk/reward-ratios on entries into the silver market. It does so from a perspective of a hedge against inflation, and a general wealth preservation option for the long term.You can make out that both scenarios of trading anticipatory below US$24, or confirmed above US$24 have a risk/reward-ratio toward the first financing point of about 1:1. at the moderate and aggressive highs of the last thirteen months range (see our quad exit strategy). The second target would be at just below US$38 and US$43.50. As always, we would let our runners (the last 25% of the initial position)  run without a trailing stop methodology. Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Anticipate, execute, take profits:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 3rd, 2021.An important factor in market speculation and, possibly, one of the top three aspects supporting the principle why the larger picture is so essential for a speculator is that the market tries to preempt the future. While we typically follow suit with action in a reactionary way in market play, it is essential to anticipate versus fact proof. This timing from a psychological factor needs this story from the removed larger perspective to support a trader’s action. Proper trade execution is near futile without the conviction on why to nourish a trend with one’s money.The daily chart above shows a chart we posted last week when we anticipated a long move under the following premises at the time: “We can see that we have entered into a short-term, low-risk advancement window after Friday’s strong close. For one between US$24 and US$24.50, the price finds itself not obstructed by a support/ resistance zone. Secondly, from a fractal volume analysis point (green histogram to the right of the chart), prices can also advance easier between the prices of US$23.90 and US$ 25.15. There are two edges derived from this data. A significant fending off the low range from US$23 to US$24 will make a strong point for higher timeframes if this month closes above US$24.25 and a bullish tone for the upcoming week.”We placed a trade (green arrow up), sharing that data in real-time in our free Telegram channel, and our predictions came true. Consequently, we took partial profits on Friday at US$24.80, based on our quad exit strategy.Silver, the big picture:Silver is more than fifty percent below its all-time highs. In relationship to gold, it is the most undervalued precious metal with an excellent risk/reward-ratio. As a safe haven wealth preservation tool, it is also the most undervalued investment opportunity compared to bitcoin, which trades at US$50,000, slightly below its all-time highs. In the price zone right now, we find below US$25 silver to be in a low-risk entry zone with a desirable risk/reward ratio.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 4th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles For Momentum

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 07.09.2021 09:50
USDCHF awaits breakoutThe US dollar recovers thanks to firm US Treasury yields at the start of the week.The pair is still stuck in a horizontal consolidation between 0.9100 and 0.9190. Sentiment has leaned to the upside after a break above the resistance at 0.9230.A near oversold RSI around the lower band may trigger some buying interests. A close above 0.9190 may lead to a test of July’s high at 0.9270. A drop below the lower band would send the price to the daily support at 0.9020, putting the rebound at risk in the process.NZDUSD shows overextensionThe New Zealand dollar consolidates recent gains as the country lifts its lockdown this week.The rally has accelerated after it cleared another resistance at 0.7150. 0.7210 is the next hurdle and a bullish breakout would push the kiwi to the major resistance at 0.7300 on the daily chart.But before that, the RSI’s bearish divergence may cast a doubt on the sustainability of the vertical ascent. 0.7100 would be the first support in case of a pullback. Further down, the former resistance at 0.7030 is a key demand zone.UK 100 tests major hurdleThe FTSE 100 rises as moderate global growth boosts hopes of continued monetary stimulus.The index has bounced off the demand area around 7125 which lies on the 30-day moving average. This is an indication that the bulls are still in control.7210 is the main hurdle from the August sell-off and its breach could put the rally back on track. Then 7300 would be the next target. Though an overbought RSI may temporarily hold the bullish bias back.On the downside, 7075 would be another support if the sideways action lingers on.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Weak August Payrolls: Why We Should Care

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.09.2021 14:44
A disappointing nonfarm payrolls report came. If the Fed postpones the tapering announcement considerably, gold might be able to rally for longer.They say that September is a good time for gold. Indeed, historically, gold used to shine during the ninth month, and the yellow metal also started this year’s September on a good note. As the chart below shows, it jumped above $1,800 on the last day of August, and it has continued its rebound since then.So, what happened? Well, on Friday, the newest report on the US labor market was revealed. The publication showed that the American economy added only 235,000 jobs in August, as one can see in the chart below. The number came much below expectations (of more than 700,000) and much below the impressive gains in July (above one million, after an upward revision). It was also the worst report since January 2021.To be clear, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report included some positive news as well. For instance, the unemployment rate declined from 5.4% to 5.2%, as the chart above shows. Additionally, it turned out that employment in June and July combined was 134,000 higher than previously reported. However, these strong revisions are not enough to outweigh the disappointing nonfarm payrolls.Implications for GoldWhat does the fresh report on the US job market imply for the gold market? Well, the slowdown in employment growth lowers the odds that the FOMC will announce the timeline of its tightening cycle this month. Before the employment report was published, many analysts bet that the Fed would present a plan of tapering of its asset purchases as early as at the September meeting. Now it’s not so clear, as it seems that the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus weighs on the economic activity. And, as a reminder, the Fed focuses now more on its employment mandate rather than the price stability. Weak payrolls mean that the shortfall from full employment will be eliminated later than previously anticipated.It goes without saying that a more dovish Fed is positive for gold prices, as the postponement of normalization of the US monetary policy provides relief for the yellow metal. The prospects of the tightening cycle were creating downward pressure on gold earlier this year.Another hidden positive factor for the gold market is the stagflationary character of the recent employment report. You see, job growth slowed down while wage inflation accelerated. According to the BLS, wages jumped 0.6% in August, up from a 0.4% increase in July. Indeed, we have inflation above 5%, while the economy is slowing down despite all the monetary and fiscal stimulus it got. It doesn’t sound good, does it? Given the size of monetary and fiscal injections, the economy should be booming, but it’s far from doing so. Well, prices are booming, but the economic activity is far from being spectacular right now.The bottom line is that the August nonfarm payrolls might be, in a sense, a game-changer for the gold market. To be clear, the Fed won’t drop its plans to tighten monetary policy entirely (especially that August nonfarm number often disappoints initially), but it may postpone the beginning of tapering and reduce its asset purchases even more gradually than it was previously thought.However, they can still announce tapering this year. Another caveat is that gold failed to rally above $1,835, despite the softened expectations of the future path of the federal funds rate. But it seems that gold bulls can enjoy the ride – at least for a while – until some hawkish comments from the Fed rattle markets again. One thing is sure: a long quiet summer has ended and a more windy fall has started. The upcoming FOMC minutes should provide some clues as to whether or not gold will face more headwinds or tailwinds later this year.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Dovish Assassins of the USD Index

Dovish Assassins of the USD Index

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.09.2021 14:54
“I’ve got you in my sights” – the USDX heard that a lot over the last two weeks. While it was bullish for gold, the dollar might take revenge soon.With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doubling down on his dovish dialogue on Aug. 27 and the Delta variant depressing U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Sep. 3, the stars aligned for a profound decline in the USD Index. However, while the greenback came under fire from all angles, the USD Index demonstrated immense resiliency in the face of adversity. Moreover, the bullish determination helped reinforce our expectation for another move higher over the medium term.To explain, the USD Index suffered a breakdown below the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern on Sep. 3 (following the release of the payrolls). However, once cooler heads prevailed, the dollar basket recouped the key level during futures trading on Sep. 5/6/7. As a result, U.S. dollar sentiment still remains quite elevated, and at the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is trading back (not much but still) above the neck level of the pattern (dashed, thick line) that’s based on the closing prices.Please see below:No Pain, No GainFurthermore, with the USD Index’s pain the Euro Index’s gain, the latter invalidated the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index. And while the uprising is bad news for the greenback, could the Euro Index actually prolong gold, silver, and mining stocks’ party?Well, for one, if I was trading the EUR/USD pair, I would be concerned about any short position that I might possibly have in this currency pair, and I could even close it based on this invalidation alone.However, I’m not concerned about our short position in the junior miners at all because of the invalidation in the Euro Index. Why? Because of the situation in the USD Index and – most importantly – because of the way the mining stocks refuse to react to the USDX’s weakness right now. Thus, while the situation is worth monitoring, it’s unlikely to move the needle over the medium term.Please see below:What a Scorching Heat!Adding to our confidence, the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around).Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration.Moreover, as the journey unfolds, the bullish signals from 2014 have resurfaced once again. For example, the USD Index’s RSI is hovering near a similar level (marked with red ellipses), and back then, a corrective downswing also occurred at the previous highs. More importantly, though, the short-term weakness was followed by a profound rally in 2014, and many technical and fundamental indicators signal that another reenactment could be forthcoming.Please see below:Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver)here is likely not a good idea.Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the greenback’s back.Please see below:The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, the USD Index was a marked man over the last two weeks, and the dovish assassins had the dollar basket right in their crosshairs. And while the barrage of bullets fired at the greenback was bullish for gold, silver and mining stocks, the former’s ability to escape the infirmary highlights the shift in sentiment surrounding the USD Index. As a result, with technicals, fundamentals and sentiment supporting a stronger U.S. dollar over the medium term, the precious metals won the recent very short-term battle, but they’re still unlikely to win the medium-term war. Of course, I continue to think that gold is going to soar in the following years, but not before declining profoundly first. At the moment of writing these words, gold futures are already down over $15 from their Friday’s close and about $20 below their last week’s high – it could be the case that the news-based rally is already over.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

September Smackdown Coming Next?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.09.2021 15:47
S&P 500 declined, with tech holding up best – the volatility spike is here as real economy deceleration is joined by Evergrande fears. Both paper and real assets took it on the chin, and yields together with the dollar rose. As for greenback and Treasuries upcoming price path:(…) Treasury yields moved up, but don‘t expect to see them gallop just yet. Slow and steady, orderly grind higher is the most likely trajectory ahead, and even that won‘t propel the dollar higher, or keep it really afloat. Greenback‘s support is at 91.70, and I‘m looking for it to give in over the nearest weeks, which carries tremendous implications for commodity and precious metals trades. And for risk assets in general.Precious metals, copper and oil bore the brunt of souring sentiment, with cryptocurrencies joining in the slide later through the day. But have the material facts changed, or all we got was a whiff of risk-off? September is likely to be volatile, it seasonally is, and August had been a surprisingly calm month. You know what they say about periods of lower volatility giving way to those of higher readings… Time to buckle up.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe S&P 500 downswing was a value driven one. Risk-on has to wait for now.Credit MarketsCredit market slide would have to stop before the stock market bulls can think about recovery – yesterday‘s picture gives a daily scare impression.Gold, Silver and MinersHigher yields and rush into the dollar did hurt precious metals, but I‘m not looking for a fresh and steep downleg to be starting here. When the momentary sense of panic calms down (it can happen relatively fast), precious metals would have an easier time rising on the monetary policy and inflation projections.Crude OilCrude oil ran into another setback, but the buying interest bodes well – I‘m looking for a gradual price recovery to continue.CopperWhile copper is hurt by the weakening real economy and underperforming the CRB Index, commodities haven‘t rolled over to the downside – the commodities superbull remains intact. Copper bulls are bidding their time, and would likely step in on the heels of positive news out of China.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin looks to have found a temporary floor, but it would be very premature to declare a fresh upswing to be about to start – medium-term chart damage has been done.SummaryYesterday‘s risk-off day is likely to get at least partially reversed today, and I‘m not looking for it to break the stock market and commodity bull runs. As for precious metals and cryptos, I‘m looking for their recovery to start in earnest once the dollar and yields once again paint a favorable picture.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

S&P 500: More Short-Term Weakness Despite Tech Rally?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.09.2021 16:03
Stocks backed off from last week’s high yesterday, as investor sentiment worsened following Friday’s jobs data. But more downside may be coming.The broad stock market index lost 0.34% on Tuesday (Sep. 7), as it bounced from the resistance level of around 4,550. Last Thursday (Sept. 2) saw the index reach a new record high of 4,545.85. This morning the market is expected to open virtually flat. However, it retraced the overnight decline.The index remains elevated after the recent run-up, so we may see some more profound profit-taking action at some point.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index remains at 4,500, and the next support level is at 4,465-4,470, marked by the previous Thursday’s low. On the other hand, the nearest important resistance level is at 4,550. The S&P 500 bounced from its four-month-long upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):S&P 500 Continues to Climb Along the Trend LineThe S&P 500 index remains close to its almost year-long upward trend line. The nearest important medium-term support level remains at 4,300, as we can see on the weekly chart:Dow Jones Broke DownLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index broke below a potential two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern yesterday. It remains relatively weaker, as it didn’t reach a new record high like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The support level remains at around 35,000, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Reached Yet Another Record HighApple stock weighs around 6.3% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. Yesterday it reached a new record high of $157.26. We can still see negative technical divergences between the price and indicators and a potential topping pattern. The two-month-long upward trend line remains at around $145, and the nearest important support level is now at $150-152.Is Short Position Still Justified?Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. We opened a short position on August 12 at the level of 4,435. The position was profitable before the recent run-up. We still think that a speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its last week’s record high of 4,545.85. However, we can see some short-term profit-taking action, although yesterday’s decline has been stopped by the relatively strong tech sector. Today we will most likely see a neutral opening of the trading session followed by another profit-taking action.The market seems short-term overbought, and we may see some profit-taking action soon. Therefore, we think that the short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.Here’s the breakdown:The market extended its advance last week, as the S&P 500 index broke above the 4,500 level.Our speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective.We are expecting a 5% or bigger correction from the new record high.As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers, well-informed.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and CareLike what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Intraday Market Analysis – CAD Struggles For Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.09.2021 09:39
USDCAD grinds higherThe Canadian dollar weakened after the BOC left the current QE unchanged.Following the pair’s bounce off the daily support at 1.2500, the break above the congestion area near 1.2640 suggests strong commitment from the buy-side.Lifting offers at 1.2705 may have opened the door to the recent peak at 1.2950. However, the RSI’s overbought situation may temper the bullish fever in the meantime.The former resistance at 1.2620 has turned into support to test buyers’ resolve.NAS 100 breaks supportThe Nasdaq 100 slumps as investors worry about moderating growth. The index is holding onto recent gains in the hope of reaching the next all-time high at 15800.On the daily chart, the price’s divergence with moving averages combined with an overbought RSI could trigger mean reversion trades. The hourly chart is also painting an overextension.The RSI’s bearish divergence indicates a loss in upward momentum.A fall below 15520 would prompt traders to take profit. 15300 is key support on the 30-day moving average.GBPJPY tests supportThe sterling underperformed after the British government announced its plan to raise taxes.The pair has broken below the rising trendline from the support at 149.20. This is an indication that the recovery momentum has slowed down.An oversold RSI may attract buying interest at 151.30. Then a rebound will need to clear 152.50 to keep the bullish bias intact.Failing that a fall below would trigger a sell-off as short-term buyers scramble for the exit. Further down, 150.50 would be the next target.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Top 3 stocks to buy in September

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 09.09.2021 11:25
Do you want to know what companies can rocket in September? Here you go! Top 3 most promising stocks!Walt DisneyThe House of Mouse has been moving gradually up for the last three months. This month should be the most successful one as this week, Disney starts selling new annual passes to Disney World for the first time in over a year. The company raised its price and has more premium-priced options than before. Do you remember how Disney encouraged investors with a fast return to profitability for its theme park segment in the second quarter? This quarter is going to be even better!If we look at the chart, you’ll notice that the stock price of Disney has broken above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $185.00. If it manages to stay above this strong resistance level, it has all chances to jump to the next Fibo level near $190.00. Support levels are $180.00 and $178.00.NVIDIANVIDIA keeps showing strength across all the company’s products: from AI to data analytics and gaming, and even cryptocurrencies! Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings results were encouraging. The revenue grew by 68% year-over-year. In late August, NVIDIA has launched NVIDIA AI Enterprise, a software that offers even more powerful AI tools than before. NVIDIA’s AI leadership in the booming cloud market can double its current stock price.Don’t be confused when you look at the chart. NVIDIA has recently made a stock split. Great opportunities for investors to buy the company at a lower price. If NVIDIA breaks above the recent high of $230.00, it will jump to the next round number of $250.00. Support levels are $210.00 and $190.00.* A stock split is when a company divides the existing shares of its stock into multiple new shares to make the price of one share lower.AppleSeptember can be important for Apple as it usually releases its latest iPhone version at this time. This event will result in another wave of sales growth for the company. The iPhone ecosystem includes apps, extra devices, and other services that also add to overall Apple’s growth. Wider availability of high-speed 5G networks continues to increase demand for new iPhones. Let’s look at the chart! Apple is currently at its all-time highs. The way up to the psychological mark of $160.00 is open now. If the price jumps above it, it may rally up to the next round number of $165.00. Support levels are $155.00 and $150.00.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

9 September 2021

Stock market news Stock market news 09.09.2021 13:18
SAVILLS: RETAIL IS ATTRACTING OPPORTUNISTIC INVESTOR INTERESTAccording to Savills, the European retail sector is increasingly looking more attractive to opportunistic investors. In the UK, there was a rise in opportunistic interest in the sector in the last quarter, supported by significant yield correction. In Poland, secondary retail assets are being traded at double-digit yields.In a world where high yields are increasingly hard to find, whether in real estate or other sectors, good UK shopping centres where there is a credible story around tenant demand and consumer need are starting to look attractive again. Prime achievable yields for shopping centres in Q2 were at 6.75% according to the international real estate advisor.Against the general trend of falling investment in retail, investors are showing confidence in the food and convenience segments.Jörg Krechky, Chairman European Retail Investment Board, Savills, says: “Assets related to the food sector, such as discounters, supermarket anchored retail schemes and, to a lesser extent, hypermarkets have been attracting multiple bids and yields are moving in. The stability and length of income streams make this segment desirable especially for investors with long-term liabilities. The sector was traditionally capturing 5-6% of total retail investment, but this year soared to 23%.”Eri Mitsostergiou, director, Savills European research, says: “We expect that in the coming quarters there may be a rise of opportunistic interest in the European retail segments that show significant repricing. Given the market context, understanding and selecting the ‘right’ retail stock is fundamental. Currently the factors that drive prices down are structural, which may allow some assets to adapt to new consumer habits, while others may need to change use altogether. Strong recovery in consumer spending may support some optimism for retailer performance and covenants in some locations and resilient assets. This may lead to further polarisation between prime and secondary pricing. In the long term we do not expect the recovery of retail yields to be as strong as in the previous cycle.”Michał Stępień, Associate, Investment, Savills Poland, says: “Subsequent lockdowns and pandemic related restrictions accelerated the e-commerce growth and the ongoing wider transformation of retail that has been affecting retail investment since 2016 Europewide (in Poland since 2019) and amplified polarization between ‘prime’ and ‘secondary’. This is reflected in the investor activity in Poland, which in H1 2021 in the retail sector did not exceed EUR 300 million and constituted less than 15% of total investment, reflecting approximately 40% drop year-on-year. Investor activity shifted from the retail sector towards logistics, significantly limiting the pool of buyers targeting retail. This is still a live process and activity in the prime end of the market is nearly non-existent, as the future is still uncertain and even the dominant centres need some time to adjust and stabilize. With the softening of prime yields by ca. 75 – 100 bps, it is also not the most comfortable time for vendors to divest. On the other hand, it is the time of opportunities, attracting buyers seeking high-yielding assets and/or value-add potential, especially in the long-term, as the gap between prime and secondary grew up to 350 bps, which resulted in secondary assets being traded at double-digit yields. We believe this will continue, with the consequences of the pandemic to unfold for a long time to come, however, once the sector recovers, driven by the synergy of traditional retail and on-line, retail investment will be back on track.”-ends-For further information, please contact: Kai Störmer, Savills Europe Press Office        Tel: +44 (0) 207 075 2885Jan Zaworski, Savills Poland Press Office Tel: +48 (0) 666 363 302Founded in the UK in 1855, Savills is one of the world's leading property agents with 600 offices across the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services.Should you not wish to receive Savills press releases, please email us at: kontakt.rodo@savills.pl. Click here for our Privacy Policy.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Retreating Bears and Dollar Struggles

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.09.2021 16:15
S&P 500 decline leaves something to be desired – conviction of the bears. Credit markets and the dollar have sent not so subtle signs that we‘re in the latter innings of this week‘s corrective move, and a snapback attempt in stocks is likely. That‘s even more so true in commodities – these didn‘t wait (with the exception of copper). Stocks though remain wavering, without a clear tech or value leader. But did you notice the degree of bearishness that such a measly downswing elicited? Given where the Fed and Treasury are in monetary and spending plans, nothing has changed – the debt ceiling drama is still out of the markets‘ focus alongside pretty much everything else including Evergrande and similar fears. Who could have forgotten the late Jan GameStop, or then Archegos? And the markets keep rising on the staircase liquidity wave interrupted by a fresh stimulus here and there:That‘s why I‘m not concerned that the day before yesterday:(…) Precious metals, copper and oil bore the brunt of souring sentiment, with cryptocurrencies joining in the slide later through the day. But have the material facts changed, or all we got was a whiff of risk-off? September is likely to be volatile, it seasonally is, and August had been a surprisingly calm month. You know what they say about periods of lower volatility giving way to those of higher readings… Time to buckle up.Time to buckle up indeed, as a brief ambush of the generally rising markets, is likely to come in autumn. Either the Fed tapers before Dec, forcing it effectively to happen now, or its inaction would defer it to 2022 (the downswing catalyst would then be inflation).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe S&P 500 downswing was stopped in its tracks by the intraday reversal – the bulls are likely to attempt to take prices higher still.Credit MarketsCredit market slide had been arrested, and the uptick across the board is a positive sign. The bulls have something to build on.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are stable in the very short run, and can surprise on the upside – the dual spike in the dollar and yields hasn‘t helped, but these headwinds won‘t last.Crude OilCrude oil had a positive day in spite of the energy sector weakness – its volatile trading is likely to continue as the 50-day moving average presents an obstacle still.CopperCopper declined in spite of the rising CRB Index – its relative weakness continues even if the red metal is likely to score gains today, making up for yesterday‘s excessive weakness.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum still looks to have found a temporary floor, and the selling pressure appears abating. The bulls‘ chance is approaching.SummaryRisk-off appears getting long in the tooth as those who have gotten used to two day corrections could say. Time for a pause in selling is at hand, but the volatile September is far from over. In the big picture, the stock market, PMs and commodity bull runs remain intact, and their upcoming trajectory will be dictated by the dollar and yields.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – The Euro Attempts To Bounce

Intraday Market Analysis – The Euro Attempts To Bounce

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.09.2021 10:33
EURUSD tests supportThe euro steadied after the ECB signaled it would reduce its bond-buying under PEPP.The pair is looking for support after it met strong selling pressure at the daily resistance near 1.1900. An oversold RSI has attracted buying interest as the price tests the support at 1.1800.A rebound above the double top (1.1900) would put the single currency back on track and extend the rally to 1.1970.A close below said support would deepen the correction to 1.1740 at the origin of the late August breakout.US 30 struggles to reboundThe Dow Jones 30 recoups losses over new low jobless claims. Price action’s struggle near the top at 35630 suggests a lack of commitment for a new high.The subsequent drop below the consolidation range (35200) has prompted short-term buyers to take the exit. However, an oversold RSI has drawn a buy-the-dips crowd.After a bounce above 35150, the index will need to clear 35400 before the rally could resume. 34600 is critical support on the daily chart to keep the bullish bias valid.USOIL consolidates gainsWTI crude tumbled after the EIA reported only a slight decrease in stockpiles.Sentiment has shifted to the bullish side after a recovery above the daily resistance at 69.50. The sideways action has allowed buyers to hold onto recent gains.The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has soaked up bids with 67.20 as fresh support.If the bulls succeed in lifting the hurdle at 70.50, 74.10 could be the next target when momentum makes its return. 65.40 would be the second line of defense in case of a pullback.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Intraday Market Analysis – The Euro Attempts To Bounce - 10.09.2021

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 10.09.2021 11:02
EURUSD tests supportThe euro steadied after the ECB signaled it would reduce its bond-buying under PEPP.The pair is looking for support after it met strong selling pressure at the daily resistance near 1.1900. An oversold RSI has attracted buying interest as the price tests the support at 1.1800.A rebound above the double top (1.1900) would put the single currency back on track and extend the rally to 1.1970.A close below said support would deepen the correction to 1.1740 at the origin of the late August breakout.US 30 struggles to reboundThe Dow Jones 30 recoups losses over new low jobless claims. Price action’s struggle near the top at 35630 suggests a lack of commitment for a new high.The subsequent drop below the consolidation range (35200) has prompted short-term buyers to take the exit. However, an oversold RSI has drawn a buy-the-dips crowd.After a bounce above 35150, the index will need to clear 35400 before the rally could resume. 34600 is critical support on the daily chart to keep the bullish bias valid.USOIL consolidates gainsWTI crude tumbled after the EIA reported only a slight decrease in stockpiles.Sentiment has shifted to the bullish side after a recovery above the daily resistance at 69.50. The sideways action has allowed buyers to hold onto recent gains.The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has soaked up bids with 67.20 as fresh support.If the bulls succeed in lifting the hurdle at 70.50, 74.10 could be the next target when momentum makes its return. 65.40 would be the second line of defense in case of a pullback.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Stagflation: A Stagnation Breaker?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.09.2021 16:07
One word shakes the markets, causing a lot of fear: stagflation. Is it coming? Will it push gold out from stagnation? Let’s find out.One of the greatest risks cited currently by the markets is stagflation. The term means a situation in which there is high inflation and stagnation at the same time. So far, we have only had high inflation (CPI annual rate has soared 5.4%, and almost 5% if we take the quarterly average), but some analysts believe that inflation has already peaked. However, the economic growth is fast (the GDP surged 12% in Q2 2021 year-over-year), as the chart below shows. So, why bother?Well, although a recession is rather not lurking around the corner, slowing economic momentum quite clearly is. The GDP growth for the second quarter (although impressive) came below expectations, the consumer confidence declined, and, more generally, the index of US data surprises has recently turned negative.Among negative surprises, we should point out the decline in retail sales by 1.1% in July, which was worse than expected (0.3%) and the drop in the New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index from 43.0 in July to 18.3 in August, much below the expected 29.0. So, the recent decline in the bond yields may not be as nonsensical as it may seem.I warned my readers a long time ago that the recovery from the pandemic would be spectacular but short-lived and caused mainly by the low last year’s base. If you lock the economy, it plunges; when you open it, it soars, simple as that. Now the harsh reality steps in, and it’s yet to be seen how the US economy will perform in a post-pandemic reality with the spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus, a slowdown in China’s economy, and without government stimulus.When it comes to the price front, it’s also highly uncertain. Inflation has softened a bit in July, but it remains high, and I’m afraid that it could prove to be more persistent than it’s believed by the Fed and some analysts. The latest Empire Index, mentioned above, tells us: although the index of manufacturing activity fell more than expected, the inflationary pressure strengthened. As the report says, “input prices continued to rise sharply, and the pace of selling price increases set another record”.What’s disturbing in all this – and this is why inflation may stay with us for longer – is that the Fed is downplaying the inflation risk. And even the monetary policy 101 says that the best way of preventing inflation is acting early as inflation pressure builds up. Friedrich Hayek, a great economist and a Nobel Laureate, once compared taming inflation to catching a tiger by the tail – it’s not an easy task when the cat has already escaped the cage. The problem is that when central bankers wait to see the whites of inflationary tiger’s eyes before acting, it’s already too late. If you stare at the tiger in the eyeballs, you are probably to be eaten soon – unless you hike interest rates abruptly, choking economic growth off.Going into specifics, the Fed’s view that inflation is transitory mainly rests on the belief that price increases are caused by supply disruptions related to the epidemic. However, inflation is not limited to just a few feverish components — it’s broad-based. In particular, the cost for shelter, the largest component of the CPI, has also been gradually rising, even though the owner’s equivalent rent component doesn’t reflect properly the recent record surge in U.S. home prices (see the chart below). If this is not inflation, I don’t know what is!The increase in house prices is important here, as Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Department, IMF, admitted at the end of July: “More persistent supply disruptions and sharply rising housing prices are some of the factors that could lead to persistently high inflation”.What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, stagflation should be negative for almost all assets. When we have a stagnant economy coupled with high inflation, stocks and bonds are selling off together. In such an environment gold shines, as it is a safe haven uncorrelated with other assets.Stagflation is so terrifying because the Fed won’t be able to rescue Wall Street simply by cutting interest rates, as it could only add fuel to the inflation fire. The only viable solution would be to engineer another ‘Volcker moment’ and tighten monetary policy decisively to combat inflation. Given that debts are much higher than in the 1970s and some analysts even point to a debt trap, it could put the economy into a severe economic crisis. So far, investors seem not to worry about high inflation, but just as things go well until they don’t, investors are relaxed until they don’t. For all these reasons, it seems smart to own such portfolio diversifiers as gold.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Risk On Is Back!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.09.2021 16:08
S&P 500 decline was at odds with the credit markets doing fine yesterday – it looks to me the bears mustered all the strength they could. And that wasn‘t too much really – this week‘s woes look to be over, and VIX ready to decline once again, which means that both tech and value can look forward for higher prices.Keeping in mind yesterday‘s big picture:(…) did you notice the degree of bearishness that such a measly downswing elicited? Given where the Fed and Treasury are in monetary and spending plans, nothing has changed – the debt ceiling drama is still out of the markets‘ focus alongside pretty much everything else including Evergrande and similar fears. Who could have forgotten the late Jan GameStop, or then Archegos? And the markets keep rising on the staircase liquidity wave interrupted by a fresh stimulus here and there:I‘m looking for a solid close across the paper and real assets, and for cryptos to join in next week. As for precious metals, the basing continues – but the miners to gold ratio (HUI:GOLD) isn‘t breaking to new lows. Gold and silver are waiting for the right catalyst, the downside is limited, and outshined by the upside potential.Anyway, time to lock in significant open profits in oil and copper while letting them grow!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe S&P 500 downswing appears stronger than it internally is at the moment – we have likely seen the lows for quite a few trading sessions ahead.Credit MarketsCredit market continues turning up, and this is the most encouraging element for me in looking for a full-fledged return to risk-on.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are stable in the very short run, and can surprise on the upside – yesterday‘s stabilization is merely a starting point. As real rates go more negative, look for attention to shift to this tailwind for higher precious metals prices.Crude OilCrude oil confirmed how volatile it can be as the U.S. inventories report facilitated selling, but the high volume hints at accumulation. I continue leaning bullish.CopperCopper and CRB Index exchanged directions yesterday, and I am looking for a good day in both later today – even if in the context of real economy deceleration.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are modestly down today, but not breaking down. The serious upswing attempt looks to have to wait for next week.SummaryRisk-on is likely to gain the upper hand shortly as yet another weak selling wave is drawing to its end. Crucially, the dollar is rolling over, and that bodes well for both real and paper assets.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

S&P 500: Does It Have the Strength to Run Higher?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.09.2021 16:13
Stocks closed at a local low yesterday, but today the market will likely be trying to retrace the decline. So, is the S&P 500 heading lower soon?The broad stock market index lost 0.46% yesterday as it got back to Wednesday’s local low. It even went below the 4,500 level! Last Thursday (Sept. 2) the index reached a new record high of 4,545.85. This morning it is expected to open higher. The index remains elevated after the recent run-up, so we may see some more profound profit-taking action at some point.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index remains at 4,490-4,500, and the next support level is at 4,465-4,470, marked by the previous Thursday’s low. On the other hand, the nearest important resistance level is at 4,550. The S&P 500 bounced from its four-month-long upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Dow Jones Extended Its Short-term DowntrendLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index broke below a potential two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern this week. It remains relatively weaker, as it didn’t reach a new record high like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The support level is now at around 34,750 and the near resistance level is at 35,000, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Retraced the Recent AdvanceApple stock weighs around 6.3% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. On Tuesday it reached a new record high of $157.26. Since then it has been declining. We can still see negative technical divergences between the price and indicators and a potential topping pattern. The two-month-long upward trend line remains at around $145, and the nearest important support level is now at $150-152.AAII’s Sentiment Is Less BearishOn Wednesday we’ve got the latest reading of the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey. There was a relatively big decline in bearish sentiment last week and an accompanying drop of neutral votes. So, individual investors are clearly less bearish right now, and that may be another sign of a topping action of the stock market. (chart by courtesy of http://www.aaii.com)ConclusionYesterday, the S&P 500 index went below the 4,500 level again. For now, it looks like a correction within an uptrend. Today we will most likely see a higher opening of the trading session – we may see another profit-taking action later in the day though.The market seems short-term overbought, and we may see some downward correction soon. Therefore, we think that the short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers, well-informed.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Will China Tolerate Higher Inflation on Energy Prices?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 10.09.2021 17:23
How does inflation impact energy markets? Is it of any importance to them? If you’ve ever asked yourself these questions, I’m here to answer them all.Inflation in BriefConsumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), etc.To measure US inflation rates, we currently use the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks a basket of consumer goods and services that involves food prices & energy prices.Is underlying inflation really high or has it peaked? Well, it’s difficult to say, as some indicators may contradict each other on that matter…Tuesday’s CPI report showed the traditional core Consumer Price Index staying at an elevated level of +4.3% year-on-year, according to the Bloomberg survey.In the case of China’s consumer inflation, it remained generally stable in August, while factory-gate prices registered expansion largely due to the increasing commodity prices: the Chinese CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in August, a bit lower than 1% in July. The Producer Price Index (PPI) went up 9.5% over the same period in August, so a little faster than 9% in July.On the U.S. side, the PPI rose +8.3% year-on-year in August (versus estimates at +8.2%) while the Core PPI progressed +6.7% over the same period. It’s higher than the expected +6.6%, but it rose at a slower pace compared to the last month’s increase. Actually, this slowdown in progression might be seen as inflationary pressures being moderated at the moment.What Impact Does It Have From the Energy Perspective?Yesterday, we saw that oil prices had fallen due to the announcement that China was using its strategic oil reserves. The Chinese announcement mentioned that millions of barrels were put up for sale in July, according to Bloomberg, which quoted an anonymous government source. In fact, China, as the leading importer of crude, seeks to fight against rising energy prices, signaling that the economic giant will not tolerate too high inflation. However, oil prices rebounded quickly into the same support zone ($67.53-67.94) that we had projected (Fig.1) with the prospect of dwindling reserves in the US, which is the world's largest consumer.Moreover, even if we know that China has decided to sell a part of its strategic reserves to limit the pressure of rising raw material prices on industrial production, there is still no information on the amount of oil that is going to be put on the market.Figure 1 – WTI Crude Oil (CLV21) Futures (October contract, daily)Today, oil prices rose again – back to yesterday morning’s levels – and the market is turning more optimistic on China-US relations after a phone call between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Indeed, that phone call had the same effect on the oil market as it had on other assets because any signal that Sino-US relations are improving is seen as positive for global trade and therefore for global financial markets.On the geopolitical scene, we also noticed that Libya aspires to produce two million barrels of oil per day from 2022, which may indeed sustain the supply.In summary, we can highlight that China has limited tolerance for the impact of higher inflation on the energy prices - and this is perfectly understandable from the perspective of the leading importer of crude oil. Inflation is certainly an important indicator to keep an eye on in the forthcoming weeks, particularly for anyone interested in energy prices.Have a nice weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Silver is your best strategy

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 12.09.2021 09:11
There are two software development strategies. “Waterfall,” which produces a product sequential, sending stages of development through various departments until it is finished. And “Agile strategy,” which, on the other hand, is all focused on “time to market.” It identified that product placement is doomed to fail if the rate of change outside a company is faster than the rate of change inside the company. It focuses on a parallel effort of teams to produce an MVP (minimum viable product). Investing isn’t much different. If you follow sequentially through news and buy an investment when the media finally shouts it off the rooftop, you most likely are the one holding the bag and are beyond late to low-risk entry timing. Right now, Silver is your best strategy. A contrarian and more “agile strategy” is not following a stream of data but individually make an overall independent assessment of a sum of data and purchase a product like physical silver when it is out of favor, hence cheap.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Accuracy through principles and experience:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 11th, 2021.A subset of agile software development is “Scrum”. In “Scrum” meetings, various departments meet to reach a common goal quickly. We have emulated this outcome-oriented parallel effort in our daily call. It gets posted daily for free in our free telegram channel. It is a 24-hour outlook that comprises market analysis in a principle-based fashion, from variables like risk, market psychology, statistical edges, inter-market relationships, time of the week, seasonal relations, relative strength/weakness, and money management, to name a few. We have, throughout the decades, stacked odds in a way for these daily forecasts to be highly accurate.The daily chart above shows how bears dominated this week’s price action. It doesn’t show that traders who followed our daily calls avoided many losing trades. Even though there might have been areas of interest and seemingly valuable entry points, inter-market relationships and choppy trading made it sensible to keep market exposure to a minimum regarding new entries. It is especially true for Friday’s silver price movement. We warned to stay sidelined, expecting that the bounce wouldn’t hold up based on the time of the week. Our indications showed there would rather be a likelihood of further price declines in the upcoming week.It is fool’s gold trading from a support/ resistance perspective only, assuming certain price levels will work as borders. While this might be true for a brief period, it is not proof of a turning point. Even worse, getting stopped out in an overall environment that is not conducive for low-risk entries only to see the turning point work out eventually is damaging to a trader’s psyche. Our focus is magnified on a low-risk approach.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, purchase physical silver now for cheap:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 11th, 2021.While in the microanalysis, bears still are at even keel with the bulls, a monthly chart analysis shows that low prices like right now for physical silver acquisitions favor the long-term investor who aims to hedge bets for wealth preservation purposes. We would even go as far as speculating that the micro-environment price behavior is purposefully trying to discourage and distract the longer-term speculators for various reasons. Again, this shows that a contrarian investment approach might be the most profitable and low-risk one. Gathering fundamental data outside the trading noise and distraction commentary of media is the most prudent way to the long-term success of your objectives.With another look at the chart above, we can see that “the mean” (blue line) plays a significant role in silver’s price support. Moreover, we have additional support (green rectangle) from a transactional volume analysis. On the commodity channel index oscillator, we can also make out a possible pattern repeat (orange circles)  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Already within entry zone:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of September 11th, 2021.Trading a monthly chart for a multi-year long-term hold position, we fine-tune our entries on the lower weekly chart. We can make out on the weekly chart the significant rejection of the US$22.00 price level (long yellow wick to the downside, forming a “hammer” candlestick formation five weeks ago). With many other edges examined, we see a high likelihood for prices to stabilize above that zone. Consequently, we consider the entire yellow square as a range to add to our physical silver holdings. With a triple-digit target projection, an ultra-precise entry timing for a physical silver position is less important. Realizing that owning physical silver in this political and economic climate is an essential risk hedge is much more important.Silver is your best strategy:The principle of today’s topic between sequential actions and parallel efforts becomes even more illuminated in the learning curve to market participation itself. It is speculated that most market players give up shortly before a breakthrough after years of effort. They are either running out of funds or find themselves psychologically drained. It is based on our tendency as humans to focus on a complex problem by trying to master one aspect after another of the challenge sequentially. Technical analysis typically has the biggest allure, and successively market entries come first.Consequently, after years of mastering low-risk entry points, finding out that exits are much more important can be frustrating, to say the least. It is imperative to focus on all aspects of system development at the same time. Psychology, money management, technical analysis, execution skills, and so forth need to have an equal place within one’s development curve. Otherwise, the rate of change of the market itself will catch up with your efforts. You will not get a foot in the door.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author´s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 11th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Intraday Market Analysis – Dax Extends Consolidation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.09.2021 08:56
GER 30 tests key supportThe stock markets recover as a discussion between Biden and Xi raises hopes of a thaw in US-China relations.The Dax 30 has found buying interest on the daily support (15450).A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss in the sell-off momentum. Traders were eager to buy the dip in this area of congestion when the RSI showed an oversold situation.A rally above 15740 would confirm the rebound. 16000 would be the target when buyers regain confidence. Otherwise, a slide below 15450 may trigger an extended correction.CADJPY hits key resistanceThe loonie stalled after Canada’s mixed employment data in August. The pair has previously broken below the demand zone at 86.60, putting buyers on the defensive.The latest rebound has turned out to be a dead cat bounce after the price saw strong selling pressure at 87.35. An overbought RSI was an opportunity for sellers to step in.Sentiment remains bearish in line with the downtrend initiated in early June. 86.40 is the last line of defense for the bulls and a fall below may trigger a sell-off to 85.50.XAGUSD sees bearish breakoutBullions weakened after the US dollar advanced on better-than-expected producer prices.The break below the rising trendline has put silver’s recovery at risk. Then the bears’ push below the critical support at 23.80 was an indication that they have gained the upper hand.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce.The bulls have the daunting task of lifting offers around 24.40 to turn the downbeat bias around. If momentum traders join in, a cascade of sell-offs may target 23.40 and then the psychological tag at 23.00.
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine

Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.09.2021 16:00
Autumn is just around the corner, and while the precious metals tasted some success most recently, the medium-term is still set for a downtrend.With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sticking to his dovish guns and U.S. nonfarm payrolls elongating the central bank’s perceived taper timeline, gold, silver, and mining stocks were extremely happy campers. However, with event-driven rallies much more semblance than substance, I warned on Sep. 7 that the rollercoaster of emotions would likely end in tears.I wrote:With the 2013 analogue leading the gold miners down an ominous path, the HUI Index and the GDX ETF have rallied by roughly 8% off their recent lows. However, identical developments occurred in 2013, and neither bout of optimism invalided their bearish medium-term outlooks.And after the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF (our profitable short position) plunged by 5.35% and 6.98% respectively last week, summertime sadness confronted the precious metals. Likewise, with more melancholy moves likely to materialize over the medium term, gold, silver, and mining stocks should hit lower lows during the autumn months.To explain, the HUI Index also plunged by nearly 6% last week, and the reversal of the previous corrective upswing mirrors its behavior from 2013. In addition, with its stochastic oscillator and its RSI (Relative Strength Index) also a spitting image, an ominous re-enactment of 2013 implies significantly lower prices over the medium term.Please see below:What’s more, the vertical, dashed lines above demonstrate how the HUI Index is following its 2012-2013 playbook. For example, after a slight buy signal from the stochastic indicator in 2012, the short-term pause was followed by another sharp drawdown. For context, after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff. Thus, the HUI Index is quite likely to decline to its 200-week moving average (or so) before pausing and recording a corrective upswing. That’s close to the 220 level. Thereafter, the index will likely continue its bearish journey and record a final medium-term low some time in December.Furthermore, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. There were several weeks when gold rallied visibly and the HUI Index actually declined modestly. And now, gold stocks are trading close to their previous 2021 lows, while gold is almost right in the middle between its yearly high and its yearly low.And why is this so important? Well, because the bearish implications of gold stocks’ extreme underperformance still remain intact.Let’s keep in mind that the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008 as well as in 2012 and 2013. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October 2008, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline so profoundly back then, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, broad head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern. As a reminder, the HUI Index recently completed the same formation.Yes, the HUI Index moved back below the previous lows and the neck level of the formation, which – at face value – means that the formation was invalidated, but we saw a similar “invalidation” in 2000 and in 2013. And then, the decline followed anyway. Consequently, I don’t think that taking the recent move higher at its face value is appropriate. It seems to me that the analogies to the very similar situation from the past are more important.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.For even more confirmation, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, investors rejected the senior miners (GDX) attempt to recapture their 50-day moving average and the failure was perfectly in tune with what I wrote on Sep. 7:Large spikes in daily volume are often bearish, not bullish. To explain, three of the last four volume outliers preceded an immediate top (or near) for the GDX ETF, while the one that preceded the late July rally was soon followed by the GDX ETF’s 2020 peak. Thus, when investors go ‘all in,’ material declines often follow. And with that, spike-high volume during the GDX ETF’s upswings often presents us with great shorting opportunities.Please see below:Even more bearish, not only did last week’s plunge usher the GDX ETF back below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern (the horizontal red line on the right side of the chart above), but the sell signal from the stochastic oscillator remains firmly intact. As a result, ominous clouds continue to form.And with the GDXJ ETF stuck in a similar rut, I wrote on Sep. 7 that overzealous investors would likely end the week disappointed:With the current move quite similar to the corrective upswing recorded in mid-May, the springtime bounce was also followed by a sharp drawdown. As a result, the GDXJ ETF could be near its precipice, as its 50-day moving average is right ahead. And with the key level now acting as resistance, investors’ rejection on Sep. 3 could indicate that the top is already here.Moreover, while the junior miners followed the roadmap to perfection, the GDXJ ETF still remains ripe for lower lows over the medium term.Please see below:Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, after another sharp move lower last week, the downtrend remains intact. For example, when the ratio’s RSI jumped above 50 three times in 2021, it coincided with short-term peaks in gold. Second, the trend in the ratio this year has been clearly down, and there’s no sign of a reversal, especially when you consider that the ratio broke below its 2019 support (which served as resistance in mid-2020). When the same thing happened in 2020, the ratio then spiked even below 1.More importantly, though, with the relative weakness likely to persist, the profits from our short position in the GDXJ ETF should accelerate during the autumn months.The bottom line?If the ratio is likely to continue its decline, then on a short-term basis we can expect it to decline to 1.27 or so. If the general stock market plunges, the ratio could move even lower, but let’s assume that stocks decline moderately (just as they did in the last couple of days) or that they do nothing or rally slightly. They’ve done all the above recently, so it’s natural to expect that this will be the case. Consequently, the trend in the GDXJ to GDX ratio would also be likely to continue, and thus expecting a move to about 1.26 - 1.27 seems rational.If the GDX is about to decline to approximately $28 before correcting, then we might expect the GDXJ to decline to about $28 x 1.27 = $35.56 or $28 x 1.26 = $35.28. In other words, $28 in the GDX is likely to correspond to about $35 in the GDXJ.Is there any technical support around $35 that would be likely to stop the decline? Yes. It’s provided by the late-Feb. 2020 low ($34.70) and the late-March high ($34.84). There’s also the late-April low at $35.63. Conservatively, I’m going to place the profit-take level just above the latter.Consequently, it seems that expecting the GDXJ to decline to about $35 is justified from the technical point of view as well.In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks went from delighted to despondent, as the technical downpour continues to rain on their parade. And while a major buying opportunity may present itself in December, the next few months will likely elicit more tears than cheers. As a result, while we eagerly await the opportunity to go long the precious metals and participate in their secular uptrends, bearish breakdowns, stock market struggles, and the Fed’s taper timeline will likely dampen their moods over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Where Are the Fireworks?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.09.2021 16:18
Stocks and credit markets gave up promising opening gains, and it was only commodities that had a really good day. Seems like the beneficiary of inflation would be indeed real assets as I had been harping about so often, and that the S&P 500 is starting to run into headwinds. Not on account of taper expectations, which appear to have been indeed pushed to the Nov-Dec time window, but thanks to inflation. Whenever you start seeing heavyweights roll over to the downside, it‘s time to pay attention.Yes, enter tech behemoths – worthwhile to watch. Stagflation would be a powerful environment to facilitate stock market declines – who could forget the 1974-5 slump? Real assets stand positioned to reap the rewards as the cost push inflation that I‘ve been discussing since early this year, is very much intact. Throw in some serious supply chain disruptions that won‘t be resolved this year, and all you end up with, is waiting for precious metals to catch up in the commodities appreciation – bringing in very nice profits in oil and copper… My total portfolio performance chart is at a fresh high!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBears took the opportunity, and managed to close quite a few opening gaps on Friday. Would the 50-day moving average again cushion the downswing?Credit MarketsCredit market turned sharply lower, and the only encouraging sign, is the lack of volume when compared to the prior upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are stable in the very short run, and can stillsurprise on the upside. However bleak the miners to gold ratio looks like, precious metals are approaching Sep FOMC disappointment as the Fed won‘t taper then – and that equals celebrations in the metals. Meanwhile, inflation keeps biting, and real rates are going ever more negative.Crude OilCrude oil predictably rose, erasing the poor U.S. inventories‘ effect. Oil stocks performance is actually reasonably strong given the broad stock market slide – black gold can keep on surprising on the upside.CopperCopper played strong catch up to the CRB Index, and on heavy volume. This is as bullish short-term as it gets.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum downswing is approaching juncture – will it break below the Sep lows? The 44,000 level is once again key, but I‘m looking for any bearish move to be invalidated, and for the golden cross to happen.SummaryRisk-on was in the end selective on Friday, with real assets outperforming paper ones strongly. Such a dynamic is likely is likely to carry over to the week just starting as a crucial test awaits S&P 500 – and it appears the stock market dip would be bought once again.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Lacks Rebound Strength

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.09.2021 08:21
EURUSD seeks supportThe US dollar advanced after the Philadelphia Fed President commented in favor of tapering this year.The single currency has not looked back after it turned away from the daily resistance at 1.1920. The bulls’ effort to bid at 1.1800 has been futile.An oversold RSI has attracted some buying interest, but they will need to clear the fresh hurdle at 1.1840. Then 1.1900 would be the next stop.Failing that, the rebound could be an opportunity to sell into strength. 1.1740 is a key support in case of an extended pullback.USDNOK tests supply areaThe Norwegian krone held onto its gains thanks to a recovery in oil prices.The drop below the daily support at 8.7200 suggests that sentiment has turned sour in the short term. The US dollar’s failure to rally back above the supply zone at 8.7300 adds more pressure to the long side.An oversold RSI has led to a limited rebound. If buyers can clear said resistance, they may gain confidence to claim back 8.8400.Otherwise, a new round of sell-off would push the price to another support (8.5200) on the daily chart.UK 100 bounces off daily supportThe FTSE 100 recoups losses supported by strong performance in cyclical stocks. The index has bounced off the critical support (6970) from the daily chart.An oversold RSI near the psychological level of 7000 has attracted bargain hunters. A bullish MA cross confirms the upward bias. 7100 from the latest sell-off is key resistance and its breach could raise bids to the triple top at 7210.In the meantime, the RSI’s overbought situation may temporarily limit the buying power and the bulls would have to wait to buy the dip.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Bitcoin and the beauty principle

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.09.2021 10:51
Expansions of the “golden mean” in the form of the Fibonacci ratio have found their stronghold in technical analysis as a long used edge for predicting retracement levels and future distribution zones as exit targets. We have extracted edges in the often-underestimated trading aspect, time.If you want to learn more about “The Beauty Principle”, we recommend taking a look at some our past chart-books:May 17th, 2021, Crypto Chartbook – Bitcoin, the beauty principleFebruary 22nd, 2021, Crypto Chartbook – Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motionJuly 2nd, 2018, Crypto Chartbook – The Beauty PrincipleBTC-USD, Daily Chart, Time as support:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 25th, 2021.We posted the above chart on August 25th in our weekly chart book publication at that time. If you compare to the recent chart below, you will find a progression of price stunningly adhering to the predictive value of the white time arcs.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Stacking edges for low-risk entries:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 14th, 2021.You can make out that price made a double bottom (yellow horizontal line) precisely at the time when arc two was reached from a time perspective. The time element served as an extra edge for low-risk entry points. Price adhered to the rising arc and again found support when arc three was reached. Using lesser-known edges like these helps for low-risk entry timing. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Time and price:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 14th, 2021.Another edge tailored to bitcoin is a combination of both, price and time. You will find in the chart above that bitcoin, when trading near the statistical mean (red line), has substantial advances after building a double bottom. This fact is advantageous, since many mathematical edges cease when the price is near the mean. If prices originated from a previous up-leg, we find these times to be sensible looking for additional edges to low-risk entry points.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, early warning signals:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 14th, 2021.On July sixth, we posted another chart that involved time analysis under our beauty principle edge structure, and projections came true. If you followed us at the time with the entries we posted live in our free Telegram channel, you were able to nearly double your money. Now we have taken substantial profits off the table. Should the monthly candle to the very right, representing September, close as a bearish red candle, a second down leg could be in store for bitcoin.From a fundamental beauty perspective, bitcoin has found itself transcended from a practical philosophical idea and inspired bodies collecting it at the time. Now it is already a store of value of over a trillion-dollar value. While not yet a unit of account, we see more and more significant cases where bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange. There is still a lack of understanding of bitcoin and its beauty at present. But nature shows that beauty typically persists, and mass adoption is undoubtedly a highly likely possibility.Bitcoin and the beauty principle:Due to the high degree of variables in the market present, it provides a vast field of possibilities of interpretation. Consequently, it allows generous room for new edges to be extracted. Critics of technical analysis often claim that technical analysis is nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is only partially true. By definition of a principle being a fundamental truth or proposition that serves as the foundation for a system of belief or behavior or a chain of reasoning, it is an ultimate truth with inherent high value. We find the laborious effort to search for new ways to define market behavior as essential. After all, a significant edge is only the one known by a few.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.09.2021 14:13
The ECB tapered its asset purchases. Only that it didn’t taper at all. Are you confused? Gold isn’t – it simply doesn’t care.Tapering has begun. For now, in the Eurozone. This is at least what headlines suggest, as last week, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting. The European central bankers decided to slow down the pace of their asset purchases:Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council judges that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) than in the previous two quarters.The financial markets were only slightly moved by the ECB’s action. The price of gold also barely changed, as the chart below shows. One reason is that such a step was widely expected. Another one is that this “tapering” is actually “pseudo-tapering”, or not tapering at all. Why?The answer is: the ECB will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme with an unchanged total envelope of €1,850 billion. So, the total number of assets bought under this program won’t necessarily change, as the ECB could still spend all of the envelope. Only the pace will slow down, but please remember that it was boosted earlier this year. Hence, even Christine Lagarde admitted during her press conference that the ECB’s move was rather a “re-calibration of PEPP for next three months” than tapering.What’s more, the net purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme, the original quantitative easing program, will continue at an unchanged pace of €20 billion per month. Last but not least, the ECB left its interest rates unchanged. And it reiterated that it was not going to normalize interest rates anytime soon, even in the face of strong price pressure. In other words, the ECB signaled once again that it would tolerate higher inflation:In support of its symmetric two percent inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two percent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realized progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilizing at two percent over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.Implications for GoldWhat does the ECB’s last meeting imply for gold? Well, although Lagarde and her colleagues didn’t signal any further reduction of monetary accommodation, the slowdown in asset purchases under PEPP is a small step toward normalizing the monetary policy after the pandemic. Additionally, please note that the ECB’s September economic projections boosted both the expected pace of the GDP growth and inflation in the coming years, which should provide the bank more room for hawkish actions. In this context, the ECB could be seen as a shy harbinger of the withdrawal of emergency measures introduced during the epidemic. This is probably why the euro has strengthened slightly after the ECB meeting.However, the ECB remained very dovish in fact. It will just reduce the pace of asset purchases under PEPP, which was boosted earlier this year. And the European central bankers didn’t provide any timeline, nor any clues about the possible end of its quantitative easing programs. The Fed will also likely maintain its very accommodative stance, especially given the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the disappointing August nonfarm payrolls.Having said that, the recent comments from the Fed officials suggest that they are determined to start or at least announce tapering by the end of the year. For instance, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an interview that “The big picture is that the taper will get going this year and will end sometime by the first half of next year”.Hence, the big picture for gold remains rather negative, as the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle could still exert downward pressure on gold. However, the actual beginning of the process, especially if accompanied by more dovish signals from the Fed than expected, could provide some relief for the yellow metal, in line with “sell the rumor, buy the fact”. My intuition is that 2022 may actually be better for gold than this year, but a lot will depend on the future economic developments, as well as the US central banks’ actions and communication. This week we will get fresh CPI data, and the FOMC will gather next week. Stay tuned!If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Tame Inflation and the Risk-On Fuse

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.09.2021 16:01
Stocks and credit markets sent conflicting messages – weakness in the S&P 500 wasn‘t matched by bonds losing ground. Though elevated by recent standards, VIX doesn‘t look to be in the appetite for further sustained gains, which would speak for gradual stabilization in stocks before these decide to move again.CPI coming in neither too hot, nor too cold, would be in line with my recent expectations of inflation becoming entrenched and elevated. Still, the figures support the transitory notion to a degree – the markets are obviously afraid of high inflation forcing Fed‘s mistake, and any reading that won‘t light the immediate inflation fires, would be considered good for the risk-on assets. More so probably for real ones as opposed to stocks. Finally, more time for the Fed to act implies better possibilities for precious metals bulls.As stated yesterday:(…) tech behemoths – worthwhile to watch. Stagflation would be a powerful environment to facilitate stock market declines – who could forget the 1974-5 slump? Real assets stand positioned to reap the rewards as the cost push inflation that I‘ve been discussing since early this year, is very much intact. Throw in some serious supply chain disruptions that won‘t be resolved this year, and all you end up with, is waiting for precious metals to catch up in the commodities appreciation – bringing in very nice profits in oil and copper…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookWhile the bears fumbled, the bulls didn‘t take the opportunity convincingly. The 50-day moving average looks to be holding for now still, especially when credit markets are considered.Credit MarketsCredit markets turned noticeably higher, and that‘s positive for the stock market bulls.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are rather stable in the very short run, and can still surprise on the upside – the miners to gold ratio is already turning up in preparation for the Sep FOMC disappointment as the Fed won‘t announce taper then. Meanwhile, inflation isn‘t disappearing, and real rates are going increasingly more negative.Crude OilCrude oil rise was associated with energy sector moving up as well, and the upswing outlook is slowly but surely improving. Black gold stands to benefit from the return of risk appetite and the dollar stalling – just as copper would.CopperCopper reversal has the power to reach a bit further still, but I‘m not looking for the 50-day moving average to fold like a cheap suit.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin keeps up the odds of golden cross happening, and Ethereum isn‘t at its weakest either. The crypto bulls can gather strength over the coming sessions.SummaryPerceptions of cooling down inflation stand ready to support risk taking, and both real assets (including precious metals of course) and stocks, stand to benefit. The dollar would get under renewed pressure, and not even yields moving up, would help reverse its slow but steady decline.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Attempts Rebound

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.09.2021 08:57
USDCHF seeks supportThe US dollar initially tumbled after a minor drop in August’s core CPI. However, the pair can capitalize on strong buying interest from the trough near 0.9150.A tentative break of August’s high at 0.9240 suggests that buyers are in control of price action. Though an overbought RSI has tempered the bullish drive, the latest pullback to 0.9180 can be an accumulation phase.A rebound may lift bids to July’s high at 0.9275. A breach of that ceiling would attract momentum buying and resume the greenback’s rally.XAUUSD bounces off demand zoneGold surged thanks to a decline in Treasury yields. The precious metal had met stiff selling pressure at the triple top (1830) from the daily chart.Short-term sentiment has turned positive after a week-long consolidation above the demand area of 1780. The break above 1803 would prompt the bears to cover their bets. An overbought RSI may trigger a temporary pullback.A rebound would challenge the critical level of 1830 once again, where a bullish breakout may resume the five-week-long rally.US 30 breaks supportThe Dow Jones 30 retreated as last month’s US inflation remained above the Fed’s target. The index was bought out of the dip over the daily support at 34580.The rebound turned out to be short-lived after a breakout invalidated this key floor. A bearish MA cross indicates that sentiment has become increasingly downbeat.The psychological level (34000) from last July would be the next target. On the upside, 34950 is a fresh resistance where sellers would be eager to erase any rebound.
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S&P 500: Striking Similarity to the September Last Year

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.09.2021 15:06
Stocks extended their short-term downtrend as the S&P 500 index fell slightly below its Monday’s daily low. Is more downside trading action coming?The broad stock market index fell to the daily low of 4,435.46 on Tuesday and it was the lowest since August 20. On September 2 the index reached a new record high of 4,545.85. Since then it has lost over 110 points. This morning stocks are expected to open virtually flat.The index remains elevated after the recent run-up, so we may see some more profound profit-taking action at some point.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index is at 4,435 and the next support level is at 4,400-4,410. On the other hand, the nearest important resistance level is now at 4,465-4.475, marked by the recent support level. The S&P 500 got back close to its over four-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Dow Jones – Short-term ConsolidationLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index broke below a potential two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern last week. It remained relatively weaker, as it didn’t reach a new record high like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The support level is now at around 34,500 and the near resistance level is at 34,750, marked by the recent support level, as we can see on the daily chart:September Last Year – S&P 500 Fell Almost 11%In 2020, the S&P 500 index reached a local high of 3,588.11 on September 2 and in just three weeks it fell 10.6% to local low of 3,209.45 on September 24. This year, September’s downward correction has started at the new record high of 4,545.85 on September 3, so there is a striking similarity between those two trading actions. However, the index is just 2.4% down this time.Apple Stock at Trend LineApple stock weighs around 6.3% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. Last week it reached a new record high of $157.26. Since then it has been declining. So it looks like a bull trap trading action. On Friday the stock accelerated its downtrend following an unfavorable federal judge's ruling. We can still see negative technical divergences between the price and indicators and a potential topping pattern. The two-month-long upward trend line remains at around $147.ConclusionYesterday, the S&P 500 index extended its short-term downtrend following breaking below 4,500 level on Friday. For now, it still looks like a correction within an uptrend. Today we will most likely see a flat opening of the trading session – we may see some more short-term consolidation.The market seems overbought, and we may see some more profound downward correction soon. Therefore, we think that the short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.Here’s the breakdown:The market retraced more of its recent advances this week, as the S&P 500 index extended its decline below 4,450 level.Our speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective.We are expecting a 5% or bigger correction from the record high.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – CAD Claws Back Losses

Intraday Market Analysis – CAD Claws Back Losses

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.09.2021 08:45
USDCAD capped by key resistanceThe Canadian dollar recovered after a rise in the August CPI.The previous attempt to break below 1.2500 has put the bulls under pressure. The rebound met offers at 1.2760 when the RSI was in an overbought situation. A bullish breakout would send the price to the peak around 1.2900.On the downside, 1.2600 is fresh support as buyers try to hold onto recent gains. Its breach could force them to abandon ship and trigger a sell-off to 1.2500, which would be the ultimate test of the bulls’ commitment.NZDUSD seeks supportThe New Zealand dollar inched higher after the Q2 GDP beat expectations.The bulls are looking to consolidate their gains after they cleared the daily resistance at 0.7100. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias. However, the kiwi’s struggle to stay above 0.7100 is a sign of overextension in the short term.A controlled pullback is necessary to gather momentum after a rebound stalled at 0.7150. 0.7055 is the immediate support. Then the psychological level of 0.7000 is a crucial floor.USOIL rally gains momentumWTI crude shot higher after the EIA reported a large drop in US inventories.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment has turned positive. After a brief consolidation, price action has lifted the psychological level of 70.00, turning it into fresh support.As the upward momentum picks up speed, the oil price is heading to 74.10. The quick recovery would put the August sell-off behind and resume the 17-month long rally. A limited retracement may occur as the RSI inches into the overbought area.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

False Dawn or Not

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.09.2021 14:52
S&P 500 rose after an initial consolidation, and its advance was broad based. Modest dollar weakness accompanied by a daily increase in yields powered value and tech alike as the pendulum swang to risk-on again. VIX indeed had trouble rising, and the volatility metric has decidedly cooled down for now. These September storms seem quite tame, compared to last year or before.Commodities though remain on a tear – base metals, energy, and finally to be joined by agriculture. Oil resolved the two day consolidation with an upswing, and didn‘t dink on the inventories report. Precious metals didn‘t have a good day, and the only positive sign was some miners resilience – the disconnect between copper and silver grows wider in spite of both metals (just as much as nickel) being needed for the green economy. Staying with copper, the red metal though has dealt me a nice opportunity to swiftly grab sizable daily profits yesterday, bringing the portfolio chart to a fresh high. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe bears lost initiative, and the 50-day moving average once again stood firm – for the n-th time this year. Seems like no correction can make it too far too fast...Credit MarketsCredit markets erased the prior risk-off turn, and HYG kicked into solid (not high, but very solid) gear again, confirming the daily upswing in S&P 500 as having legs.Gold, Silver and MinersGold remains stuck since the Jun FOMC taper verbal plays capped further upside – the yellow metal has for now trouble overcoming 1,800, and could very well slowly grind a little lower in a fake show of weakness, only to rally on the no Sep taper announcement. As stated yesterday, the bulls better arm themselves with patience.Crude OilCrude oil bulls had a field day, and oil stocks overwhelmingly approved of the upswing. As we‘re nearing the $74 - $76 area of prior local highs, expect a bit of consolidation before higher prices follow, with triple digit oil sticker slated for 2022.CopperAfter trading a bit too much at odds with the CRB, copper indeed staged an upside reversal yesterday. As its underperformance vs. the broad commodities index grows, look for not entirely smooth sailing in the red metal ahead.Bitcoin and EthereumBrief consolidation after the Bitcoin golden cross is here as both leading cryptos consolidate last two days‘ gains.SummaryRisk taking in real assets has been to a degree joined by the paper ones yesterday. Big picture, both classes are expected to do well unless the Fed presses the break pedal, and decreases its pace of monetary activism. As that‘s unlikely to happen over the nearest weeks, we can look forward for riding out the Sep storms, to be followed by more price gains namely in commodities and stocks.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Softening Inflation: Gold Jumps Again

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.09.2021 14:55
Inflation softened further in August, and gold reacted positively. Look closely at what the Fed’s doing, as that’s where the clues for the future are.Consumer inflation eased further in August. According to the latest BLS report on inflation, the CPI increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.5% in July. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also softened — it rose 0.1% after increasing 0.3% in the preceding month. It was the smallest increase since February 2021. The deceleration was mainly caused by declines in the index for used cars and trucks, which fell 1.5%, and in the index for transportation services, which decreased 2.3% (driven by a sharp fall of 9.1% in airline fares).However, on an annual basis, the overall inflation stayed practically unchanged, rising again at a disturbingly high pace, as the chart below shows. The overall index surged 5.3% in August, following 5.4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core CPI soared 4%, following a 4.3% jump in July.So, as one can see in the chart above, inflation peaked in June and decelerated for the second month in a row. However, what I wrote last month remains valid: “[inflation] remained disturbingly high, despite the deceleration in several subindexes, including the index for used cars. I dread to think what inflation would be if these categories weren’t moderate!”Inflation did soften, but it remains elevated and above 5% on an annual basis. Moreover, it doesn’t have to go away anytime soon. Why? The first reason is that the supply-chain crisis hasn’t ended yet. The supply-side problems are keeping the producer prices hot. In August, the PPI for final demand rose 0.7%, following 1% in July. Although the monthly pace decreased, it was still above expectations. But over the past 12 months, the producer price inflation soared 8.3%, significantly faster than 7.8% in July. It was the biggest jump since November 2010, when the series started, as the chart below shows.The unresolved supply-chain crisis and stubbornly high producer price inflation imply that inflationary pressures are likely to persist and to be translated into higher consumer prices in the future. Because inventories are tight and because the mindset has changed, producers are relatively easily passing on higher costs to consumers.Secondly, the index for shelter – the biggest component of the CPI – has been rising gradually since February 2021, and it accelerated from 2.79% in July to 2.82% in August, as the chart above shows. As a reminder, home prices – which are not covered by the CPI – have been surging recently, which should translate into further increases in the index for shelter.Last but not least, the annual growth of the M2 money supply has stabilized at about 12%, as the chart below shows. It’s of course much lower than the 27% recorded in February 2021, but it’s still almost twice as fast as the 6.8% seen just before the pandemic started. And the easy fiscal policy could also add something to the inflationary pressures if the fiscal deficits are monetized. All these developments suggest that inflation isn’t disappearing just yet.Implications for GoldWhat does the August report on the CPI imply for the gold market? Well, theoretically, softer inflation should be negative for assets sensitive to inflation such as gold. The yellow metal is seen as an inflation hedge, but the data says that it shines when inflation is high and accelerating. So, the deceleration should be bad news for gold.However, as the chart below shows, the price of gold has increased after the publication of the inflation report, jumping again above $1,800. Just as one month ago, slightly softer inflation has offered some hopes that inflation would prove to be transitory, in line with Powell’s narrative, and provide the Fed with an excuse to continue its ultra-dovish monetary policy. Indeed, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the expectations for the Fed’s tightening cycle have diminished slightly from the previous week. For instance, the odds for the interest rate hike in December 2022 have declined from 54% to 50%, so it’s a coin toss. The softening of these expectations has supported gold prices.However, the dark clouds are still present on the horizon. Although the August CPI eases somewhat the need for the Fed to begin to taper its quantitative easing, the inflation report shouldn’t materially change the Fed’s stance. After all, inflation is still significantly above the target and partial normalization of the monetary policy is coming anyway.What’s more, this month the FOMC statement will be accompanied by a fresh dot-plot. As a reminder, the latest Fed’s projections plunged gold prices, as they revealed that the US central bankers were eager to hike the federal funds rate earlier than previously thought. Given the increase in inflation since June and all the employment progress the economy made, the upcoming dot-plots could be hawkish and send gold prices lower. You have been warned.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – Dax Extends Consolidation

Jing Ren Jing Ren 13.09.2021 10:49
GER 30 tests key support The stock markets recover as a discussion between Biden and Xi raises hopes of a thaw in US-China relations. The Dax 30 has found buying interest on the daily support (15450). A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss in the sell-off momentum. Traders were eager to buy the dip in this area of congestion when the RSI showed an oversold situation. A rally above 15740 would confirm the rebound. 16000 would be the target when buyers regain confidence. Otherwise, a slide below 15450 may trigger an extended correction. CADJPY hits key resistance The loonie stalled after Canada’s mixed employment data in August. The pair has previously broken below the demand zone at 86.60, putting buyers on the defensive. The latest rebound has turned out to be a dead cat bounce after the price saw strong selling pressure at 87.35. An overbought RSI was an opportunity for sellers to step in. Sentiment remains bearish in line with the downtrend initiated in early June. 86.40 is the last line of defense for the bulls and a fall below may trigger a sell-off to 85.50. XAGUSD sees bearish breakout Bullions weakened after the US dollar advanced on better-than-expected producer prices. The break below the rising trendline has put silver’s recovery at risk. Then the bears’ push below the critical support at 23.80 was an indication that they have gained the upper hand. An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls have the daunting task of lifting offers around 24.40 to turn the downbeat bias around. If momentum traders join in, a cascade of sell-offs may target 23.40 and then the psychological tag at 23.00.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Find Bids

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.07.2021 09:52
EURUSD attempts reversal The US dollar tumbled after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it is nowhere near a rate hike. The RSI divergence was a giveaway that the sellers may have taken their feet off the pedals. The break above 1.1820 suggests that buyers were trying to get back into the game. As the pair grinds its way up, a close above 1.1850 may foreshadow a U-turn in the coming days, prompting sellers to cover. 1.1880 could be the last hurdle and its clearance may trigger a runaway rally. 1.1770 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. CADJPY tests psychological level The Canadian dollar inched higher after a better-than-expected CPI in June. The bulls are looking to extend the rebound from 85.50, a major support on the daily chart, in order to resume the fifteen-month long uptrend. The break above the support-turned-resistance of 87.60 has put the bears under pressure. The psychological level of 88.00 has so far capped the loonie’s advance. However, an oversold RSI may help gather more buying interest. 86.60 is the immediate support if the consolidation drags on. NAS 100 recoups losses The Nasdaq 100 recovers from profit-takings as investors continue to digest Q2 earnings. The technical pullback has found bids on the 20-day moving average (14800). Buyers were quick to see the oversold RSI as a bargain indicator. The bullish mood remains intact as long as the price is above the previous demand zone near 14550 from the daily chart. Consolidation may run its course for a few more hours as short-term bulls rebuild their stakes. Those armed with patience may wait for a clean break above the peak at 15140.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Lifts Key Resistance

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.06.2021 08:57
EURUSD plunges in search of support The US dollar surges as the Fed signals interest rate hikes in 2023. The pair has been in a steady retracement after it broke above the daily resistance at 1.2240. Though the breach of the major support at 1.2070 may have dented the bullish fever. The RSI is deep in the oversold zone. The demand area between 1.1990 and the psychological level of 1.2000 could see a limited rebound as a result of profit-taking and dip-buying. 1.1940 could be the next target while 1.2130 has become the new resistance. USDCAD cuts through critical resistance The Canadian dollar slumped against its buoyant US counterpart despite Canada’s upbeat CPI. The greenback has pierced through the key resistance at 1.2200. The bullish breakout could initiate a reversal as sellers scramble to cover. The pair is looking to consolidate its gains above the 30-day moving average. 1.2300 is the next resistance. The RSI has ventured again in the overbought area and could face a pullback as momentum players take chips off the table. 1.2155 is the immediate support in case of a retreat. EURGBP tests lower band of consolidation range Sterling rallied after the UK’s core CPI jumped to 2% yoy in May. The euro’s last rebound has once again failed to clear the supply zone near 0.8630. Stiff selling pressure has pushed the pair below 0.8580, the origin of the latest rally. This suggests that sellers still have the upper hand in the general direction. An oversold RSI may prompt intraday traders to take profit. The demand zone between 0.8560 and 0.8570 at the lower range of consolidation is critical. Its breach could trigger a sell-off towards 0.8500.
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Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Needs Rebound Catalyst

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.06.2021 09:39
GBPUSD bounces off key support The pound consolidates as the unemployment rate falls to 4.7% in the three months to April. The pair has found support at the lower range of its horizontal consolidation (1.4040). This demand zone from the daily chart is critical in keeping the bullish trend intact. An oversold RSI at this level may have prompted the bulls to buy the dip. 1.4125 from the latest sell-off is the immediate resistance. Its clearance could pave the way to the peak at 1.4250. On the downside, a breakout could trigger a sell-off towards 1.3900. NAS 100 retreats towards support The Nasdaq 100 pulls back ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting. The breakout above the previous high at 14070 is a confirmation of bullish continuation. The bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an acceleration in the rally. Short-term retracement could meet buying interest from trend followers. 14170 is the immediate resistance and the psychological level of 14000 is the closest support. Further down, 13800 on the 20-day moving average would be a test for the bulls’ commitment. XAGUSD consolidates ahead of breakout Silver holds on to recent gains as the US dollar softens on lackluster retail numbers. Sentiment has recovered after the price rallied above the daily resistance at 28.30. The precious metal is grinding along the 30-day moving average in search of bids. 27.00 is a major support while the sideways action goes on. A bearish breakout could extend the correction towards 26.10. On the upside, a close above 28.00 may lead the price to challenge the upper band of the range at 28.70 for the third time.
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Intraday Market Analysis - NASDAQ Rises Above Major Resistance

Jing Ren Jing Ren 09.06.2021 09:42
NAS 100 climbs back towards peak Equity markets hold high as investors weigh stronger economic rebound against reflation concerns. The Nasdaq’s surge above the daily resistance at 13800, suggests that buyers have regained control of the direction. The bull market may resume when trend followers jump in again. 13960 is the resistance up ahead. Its breach could trigger an extended rally to the peak at 14070. The RSI has retreated into the neutral zone. 13700 has turned into a demand zone in case the index needs to consolidate its gains. EURGBP forms head and shoulder The euro rallying after the eurozone’s Q1 GDP showed a smaller contraction than expected. The major support at 0.8560 has held well against sellers’ multiple attempts to break out. The rally above 0.8605 could shift the balance in favor of the demand side. The formation of a head and shoulder may suggest a reversal in the coming hours. A break above the neckline which coincides with the resistance level of 0.8618, acts as a confirmation. 0.8645 would be the next hurdle, while 0.8590 acts as the immediate support. NZDUSD bounces off demand zone The New Zealand dollar is recovering on improved risk appetite across the board. The pair has found solid bids in the demand area (0.7120) on the daily chart. The subsequent breakout above 0.7230 indicates strong buying interest. 0.7140 is the key support to keep the bullish momentum going. The RSI has returned to the neutrality area, leaving room for another round of rally. On the upside, 0.7285, a critical resistance, would be the next target. Its breach could open up the highway towards 0.7400.
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Intraday Market Analysis – CAD Claws Back Losses - 16.09.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.09.2021 15:07
USDCAD capped by key resistance The Canadian dollar recovered after a rise in the August CPI. The previous attempt to break below 1.2500 has put the bulls under pressure. The rebound met offers at 1.2760 when the RSI was in an overbought situation. A bullish breakout would send the price to the peak around 1.2900. On the downside, 1.2600 is fresh support as buyers try to hold onto recent gains. Its breach could force them to abandon ship and trigger a sell-off to 1.2500, which would be the ultimate test of the bulls’ commitment. NZDUSD seeks support The New Zealand dollar inched higher after the Q2 GDP beat expectations. The bulls are looking to consolidate their gains after they cleared the daily resistance at 0.7100. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias. However, the kiwi’s struggle to stay above 0.7100 is a sign of overextension in the short term. A controlled pullback is necessary to gather momentum after a rebound stalled at 0.7150. 0.7055 is the immediate support. Then the psychological level of 0.7000 is a crucial floor. USOIL rally gains momentum WTI crude shot higher after the EIA reported a large drop in US inventories. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment has turned positive. After a brief consolidation, price action has lifted the psychological level of 70.00, turning it into fresh support. As the upward momentum picks up speed, the oil price is heading to 74.10. The quick recovery would put the August sell-off behind and resume the 17-month long rally. A limited retracement may occur as the RSI inches into the overbought area.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Finds Bullish Impetus

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.09.2021 09:22
AUDUSD struggles for supportThe Australian dollar softens as lockdowns led to sharp job losses in August.The pair has struggled to hold on to gains after 0.7400. Traders are testing supports as the initial surge fades.A break below 0.7310 is a sign of weak buying interest. Then a breach below 0.7290 would lead to a test of 0.7245 which happens to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the daily chart.The resistance could cap a rebound at 0.7345 and rather be an opportunity to sell into strength.USDJPY bounces off daily supportThe US dollar surged after August’s upbeat retail sales took the market by surprise.The greenback was bid up by a buying-the-dips crowd on the daily support (109.10) when the RSI showed an oversold situation. The indicator’s bullish divergence pointed to a loss in the sell-off momentum.The break above the immediate resistance at 109.75 would prompt sellers to cover their positions. 110.15 is a key hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout may raise volatility and jump-start a new round of rally in the dollar.GBPUSD falls through trendlineThe US dollar’s rally across the board puts the sterling on the defense.The pair has been climbing along a rising trendline. Then it met stiff selling pressure in the daily supply zone near 1.3900. An initial fall below 1.3800 indicated a lack of conviction in the rebound after a repeatedly overbought RSI.The invalidation of the trendline would turn sentiment upside down with buyers cashing in.1.3730 is the next support as the firesale gains traction. On the upside, the bulls will need to lift 1.3840 before they could hope for a bounce.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Finds Bullish Impetus - 17.09.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.09.2021 09:31
AUDUSD struggles for support The Australian dollar softens as lockdowns led to sharp job losses in August. The pair has struggled to hold on to gains after 0.7400. Traders are testing supports as the initial surge fades. A break below 0.7310 is a sign of weak buying interest. Then a breach below 0.7290 would lead to a test of 0.7245 which happens to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the daily chart. The resistance could cap a rebound at 0.7345 and rather be an opportunity to sell into strength. USDJPY bounces off daily support The US dollar surged after August’s upbeat retail sales took the market by surprise. The greenback was bid up by a buying-the-dips crowd on the daily support (109.10) when the RSI showed an oversold situation. The indicator’s bullish divergence pointed to a loss in the sell-off momentum. The break above the immediate resistance at 109.75 would prompt sellers to cover their positions. 110.15 is a key hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout may raise volatility and jump-start a new round of rally in the dollar. GBPUSD falls through trendline The US dollar’s rally across the board puts the sterling on the defense. The pair has been climbing along a rising trendline. Then it met stiff selling pressure in the daily supply zone near 1.3900. An initial fall below 1.3800 indicated a lack of conviction in the rebound after a repeatedly overbought RSI. The invalidation of the trendline would turn sentiment upside down with buyers cashing in. 1.3730 is the next support as the firesale gains traction. On the upside, the bulls will need to lift 1.3840 before they could hope for a bounce.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Shaking Off the Taper Blues

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.09.2021 15:50
S&P 500 recovered from the selling at open, but the picture is hardly one of universal strength. Tech rose while value erased half of the intraday decline, and high yield corporate bonds closed little changed. Risk-on seems as slowly returning unless you look at the retail sales surprise boosting the odds of Sep taper. Is it though really going to happen?I continue to think the Fed won‘t move too far, too fast, and that no real action would follow later this month. The job creation isn‘t at its strongest, and yesterday brought us a daily overreaction to positive data, which coupled with the preceding manufacturing ones reveals that the moderation in economic growth would be indeed shallow and temporary. This daily panic was nowhere better seen than in gold and silver – neither USD nor yields moved much.Unless the 4,440 level in S&P 500 is broken to the downside, stocks appear on the verge of yet another accumulation while commodities are best positioned to rise strongly (the Fed isn‘t mopping up excess liquidity, no). Crude oil hasn‘t spoken the last word, and looks ready to continue upwards following a little consolidation around $72. Copper‘s wild ride continues, and I‘m not looking for the red metal‘s 50-day moving average to start declining.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe overall shape is one of cautious accumulation, with the final questions apparently being whether the bears mount some more strength and attempt breaking below the 50-day moving average, which had held since mid Mar.Credit MarketsCredit markets though look like hanging in the danger zone still – return to daily strength in both HYG and quality debt could invalidate it. The overall message is unclear still.Gold, Silver and MinersInstead of the yesterday mentioned slow grind a little lower in a fake show of weakness, the yellow metal declined more profoundly. Miners and silver got spooked too, but the HUI:GOLD ratio hasn‘t broken below late Aug lows. The bears have a short-term technical advantage, and the $64K question is when the bulls step in.Crude OilOil stocks are supporting a little breather in oil now – the coming correction is likely going to be a buying opportunity.CopperCopper once again outperformed other commodities on the downside, but its corrections are likely to be bought.Bitcoin and EthereumBrief consolidation after the Bitcoin golden cross is here, and it could still be a bull flag even if a dip below the 200-day moving average is likelier.SummaryStealth accumulation or one more bear raid in stocks? Commodities seem unfazed, with only the precious metals (and copper) under pressure from the taper nearby fears. Even cryptos are retreating a little, but dollar‘s inability to stage a strong rebound tells us not to overestimate the Fed‘s willingness to act and throw the markets off kilter.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold Downturn: Why Strong Fundamentals Are Not Everything

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.09.2021 15:52
So much money printed. Excessive debt. Even pandemic! And gold failed to hold gains. But that’s how markets work, no matter what gold permabulls say.Gold plunged yesterday, just as it was likely to. The fake reason? U.S. retail sales exceeded expectations. The real reason? A major downtrend.On the above gold chart, I added annotations that show what happened in the previous 3 cases after the retail sales reports. We saw the following:gold declined after retail sales disappointed in Junegold topped after retail sales outperformed in Julygold paused its rally after retail sales disappointed in Augustgold declined after retail sales outperformed in SeptemberWhat should one make of that?Nothing.There is no clear link (and perhaps no link whatsoever) between U.S. retail sales and the price of gold. If gold had declined based only on great retail sales, then it surely should have soared based on disappointing retails sales in June, right? It plunged then.For many weeks, months, and years, I’ve been writing that markets don’t need a trigger to move in a certain way. Getting one could speed things up, but the markets might eventually rally or decline on just about any piece of news, provided that they really “want to”. By markets “wanting” to move in a given way, I mean the fact that markets move in trends and cycles, and even if a given market has a very favorable fundamental situation for the long run, it doesn’t mean that it won’t slide in the short or medium term. That’s how markets work, and that’s been the case for decades, regardless of what gold permabulls might tell you.Let’s face it, the monetary authorities around the world are printing ridiculous amounts of money, stagflation is likely next, and gold is extremely likely to soar based on that in the following years, just like what we saw in the 1970s.But.This is already the case – lots of money has been already printed, and the world has been suffering from the pandemic for well over a year. Gold should be soaring in this environment! Silver should be soaring! Gold stocks should be soaring too!And what’s the reality?Gold failed to hold its gains above its 2011 highs. Can you imagine that? So much money printed. Excessive debts. Even pandemic! And gold still failed to hold gains above its 2011 highs. If this doesn’t make you question the validity of the bullish narrative in the medium term in the precious metals sector, consider this:Silver – with an even better fundamental situation than gold – wasn’t even close to its 2011 highs (~50). The closest it got to this level was a brief rally above $30. And now, after even more money was printed, silver is in its low 20s.And gold stocks? Gold stocks are not above their 2011 highs, they were not even close. They were not above their 2008 highs either. In fact, the HUI Index – the flagship proxy for gold stocks – is trading below its 2003 high! And that’s in nominal prices. In real prices, it’s even lower. Just imagine how weak the precious metals sector is if the part of the sector that is supposed to rally first (that’s what we usually see at the beginning of major rallies) is underperforming in such a ridiculous manner.And that’s just the beginning of the decline in the mining stocks.More to Come!The breakdown below the broad head and shoulders pattern (marked with green) was verified. The previous three similar patterns (also marked with green) were followed by huge declines, and I copied the moves to the current situation (marked with dashed lines). This simple analogy tells us that the HUI Index could slide to the 100 – 150 range, meaning that it could even decline to its early 2016 low.Can it really happen? With the precious metals market as weak as it is right now (from the medium-term point of view, not the long-term one) — of course.On a short-term note, please take a look at what silver just did.It broke to new 2021 lows in terms of the closing prices. Indeed, back in August, silver’s intraday low was lower, but it didn’t close as low. That’s a major confirmation of the bearish price forecast for silver.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.09.2021 15:54
August marked the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s abandonment of the gold standard. It caused so many problems for the economy…and gold didn’t take over?Last month marked the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s suspension of the convertibility of US dollars into gold. This move broke the last, thin link between world currencies and the yellow metal, effectively ending the ersatz of the gold standard that we still had back then (the official end came in March 1973, marking the start of an era of freely-floating fiat currencies).I wrote about the collapse of the Bretton Woods in the last edition of the Gold Market Overview, but as it was a truly revolutionary event that paved the way for today’s monetary conditions, it’s worth mentioning the topic again.You see, as weak the diluted post-war version of the gold standard was, it limited the US central bank’s ability to increase the money supply, as there was still a possibility that other participants of the system would redeem their dollars for gold. But Nixon “suspended temporarily” the convertibility of the dollar into gold, and while gold is away, the mice will play. Without any true constraints, the pace of annual money growth hit double digits. The CPI inflation rates followed, and the great stagflation of 1970s emerged, as the chart below shows.What’s more, without the discipline imposed by the gold standard, the central bank could much easier monetize the public debt. The governments could spend more, maintain fiscal deficits and increase their indebtedness. In short, without gold as an anchor for monetary policy, we got more money printing, more debt, higher inflation, and more severe financial crises.Now, one could ask: if the current monetary system, or – as some analysts prefer to call it – non-system is so bad, why isn’t the price of gold higher? Shouldn’t it be rallying, indicating how rotten our fiat-money-debt-fueled economy is?Well, there are many answers to this questions. First of all, let’s note that the price of gold has already surged about 4100%, or more than 7.7% annually, on average, since 1971 (see the chart below), which is really something!Second, financial markets are great supporters of the current monetary system, as they love loose monetary policy and liquidity drips from the central banks. Please remember that the US stock market welcomed the closure of the gold window by increasing 3% the next day after Nixon’s infamous speech.Third, even poor systems can work for a while. Communist economies didn’t collapse immediately, despite their obvious inefficiency. The Breton Woods worked for almost 30 years despite its evident flaws. Furthermore, there were some institutional changes implemented in order to strengthen the current system, such as central banks’ independence, inflation targeting, prohibition of direct monetization of public debt, etc.However, probably the most important reason is that the gold standard was in a way replaced by the US dollar standard, as the greenback substituted gold as the world’s reserve currency. In such a system, there is simply no alternative to the US dollar as a global reserve. This is because America became even more central to global finance than it was in 1971 and because practically all countries conduct similarly unsound monetary and fiscal policies (and some central banks like the ECB or BoJ are even more radical than the Fed). The greenback’s strength limits dollar-denominated gold prices.However, it’s worth remembering that unlike the gold standard, under which currencies were backed by gold (or: they were actually defined as units of gold’s weight), today’s currencies are backed only by the reputation of their issuers, which is not set in stone. This is actually why the Breton Woods eventually collapsed. Initially, the US enjoyed a great reputation, and no one even dared to question Uncle Sam’s ability to convert dollars to gold. But the prolonged war in Vietnam, Johnson’s great social programs, increased government spending and growing deficits undermined this reputation, and other countries started to demand gold for their dollars.The same may happen in the future, especially given that Trump has left some scratches on America’s reputation. With Biden continuing his predecessor’s populist economic doctrine, the greenback should face further headwinds. What’s more, with ultra-low interest rates and a mammoth pile of debt, the room for inflating the economic bubble is limited. Although the return to the gold standard seems unlikely, the recurring business cycles and economic crises are more than certain. That’s great news for gold.In other words, the current system persists mainly thanks to the faith in the central banks’ ability to control inflation, even without the discipline of the gold standard. However, this belief can break down one day. The Fed might be right that the current high inflation is temporary. But if not, we could have “Powell’s shock”, which could strengthen gold, just as Nixon’s shock did.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Will Quadruple Witch Send Stock Prices Lower?

Will Quadruple Witch Send Stock Prices Lower?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.09.2021 15:57
Stocks are going sideways since last Friday. Will they break higher and go back to the record high? Or the opposite? It still doesn’t look bullish.The broad stock market index lost 0.16% on Thursday as it fluctuated within a short-term consolidation following last week’s declines. On September 2 the index reached a new record high of 4,545.85. Since then it has lost over 110 points. This morning stocks are expected to open virtually flat again following a pre-session rebound from overnight lows.The index remains elevated after the recent run-up, so we may see more profound profit-taking action at some point.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index is now at 4,435-4,450 and the next support level is at 4,400-4,410. On the other hand, the nearest important resistance level is now at 4,490-4,500, marked by the previous support level. The S&P 500 bounced off its over four-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):S&P 500’s Medium-Term Downward Reversal?The S&P 500 index broke below its medium-term upward trend line a few weeks ago. However, it is still relatively close to the record high. The nearest important support level is at 4,300, as we can see on the weekly chart:Dow Jones Trades Within a ConsolidationLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index broke below a potential two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern recently. It remained relatively weaker in August - September, as it didn’t reach a new record high like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The support level is now at around 34,500 and the near resistance level is at 35,000, marked by the recent support level, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple at Support LevelApple stock weighs around 6.3% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. Last week it reached a new record high of $157.26. And since then it has been declining. So it looked like a bull trap trading action. On Friday the stock accelerated its downtrend following an unfavorable federal judge's ruling. We can still see negative technical divergences between the price and indicators and a potential topping pattern. The stock is at an over two-month-long upward trend line – it’s a ‘make or break’ situation.ConclusionThe S&P 500 index continued to trade within a short-term consolidation yesterday. It’s been a week since the market reached the current price levels. So is this a flat correction within a downtrend or some bottoming pattern? Today we will most likely see another flat opening of the trading session – later in the day we may see some more volatility because of a quarterly derivatives expiration known as ‘quadruple witching Friday’.The market seems overbought, and we may see some more profound downward correction soon. Therefore, we think that the short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.Here’s the breakdown:The market retraced more of its recent advances this week, as the S&P 500 index extended its decline below 4,450 level.Our speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective.We are expecting a 5% or bigger correction from the record high.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Stock Market Drops. Will Correction Continues?

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 20.09.2021 13:22
The US broad-market index, S&P 500, has been pressed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since March! Why?Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve to hold a meeting on Wednesday. The central bank isn’t likely to take some hawkish actions, but it may hint at tapering this year. This will be good news for the US dollar and negative for the stock market. The anticipation of this decision is already setting the market in motion. The overall sentiment is pressing not only the US stock indices but also the Hang Seng index and an Australian one. Besides, most of the risk-on assets are losing their value while the US dollar is getting stronger. Quadruple witching is adding to the increased volatility as well. It is the simultaneous expiration of four kinds of options and futures contracts.Tech outlookThe S&P 500 index (US500) has dropped below the lower line of Bollinger Bands, which means that the price is at extreme lows and it’s going to reverse up soon. However, the correction may continue if the index breaks below the support line of 4380. The stock index may reach the 100-day moving average of 4335. Not to miss the reversal, we highly recommend you add the MACD indicator to your chart and monitor the breakout above the zero line. When it occurs, it would signal the upcoming reversal up. Resistance levels are the 50-day moving average of 4430 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 4500. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Lights Flashing Red

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.09.2021 15:56
S&P 500 gave in to weakness, shifting the balance of power to the bears – this close at the 50-day moving average doesn‘t look to be as appealing as the prior ones, buy the dip isn‘t likely to work this time around. Yes, I‘m saying that after the prior week‘s long hesitation / consolidation above this key support looked as if it would work, but I became not conviced on Wednesday‘s strength lacking believable follow through on Thursday. And Friday‘s quad witching dispelled the remaining question marks – the long overdue 5%+ correction is on the doorstep. The earlier today opened short S&P 500 position is already solidly in the black.As I wrote on Friday:(…) Unless the 4,440 level in S&P 500 is broken to the downside, stocks appear on the verge of yet another accumulation while commodities are best positioned to rise strongly (the Fed isn‘t mopping up excess liquidity, no). Crude oil hasn‘t spoken the last word, and looks ready to continue upwards following a little consolidation around $72. Copper‘s wild ride continues, and I‘m not looking for the red metal‘s 50-day moving average to start declining.The stock accumulation hypothesis fans are in for a reality check, and the tandem of rising USD and yields is likely to translate into commodity headwinds (including for copper, and to a somewhat lesser degree for oil), and especially (initial) precious metals headwinds. Gold will for now remain the more resilient metal while silver is being taken for a ride as wild as copper – these are debt contagion fears, after all.As Q3 and Q4 GDP growth would be underwhelming in spite of recent strong retail and manufacturing data, that‘s going to affect the red metal. Though contained to China (for now but watch for USD-denominated bond yields of Chinese financial companies), the Evergrande situation won‘t help the commodity. The recession callers would be disappointed though, and the Fed will eventually taper (no, I‘m not looking at Sep). Still, commodities are likely to remain medium-term resilient.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBears have the upper hand now, and the selloff wasn‘t isolated to tech or value. If you look at market breadth, the 500-strong index is internally weaker than prices show.Credit MarketsCredit markets declined across the board, and the HYG on Thursday got follow through that doesn‘t appear as over just yet.Gold, Silver and MinersGold held up better than silver but it might very well be just a daily breather – the bears have an advantage, and miners are leading lower.Crude OilOil stocks are supporting a little breather in oil now – the coming correction is likely going to be a buying opportunity (after the dust settles).CopperCopper wants to lead to the downside, but is more or less range bound. Unless commodities give in (that would require a genuine taper surprise), the red metal is likely to recover from any selloff, however steep, yet remain underperforming the broader commodity index.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are joining the selloff, and the golden cross is in danger of being invalidated fast. SummaryThe short-term outlook has shifted to bearish in stocks and cyclically sensitive commodities, and continues being challenged in precious metals. Not until the dollar stalls and yields stabilize can we look for price increases in the mentioned asset classes, affecting the crypto bull markets too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

USD Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 20.09.2021 16:06
The declining medium-term outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks will eat away at the honey pot of US dollar bears. Get ready for bee stings.With headline after headline attempting to knock the USD Index off of its lofty perch, I warned on Sep. 13 that dollar bears will likely run out of honey sooner rather than later.I wrote:While the USD Index was under fundamental fire in recent weeks, buyers eagerly hit the bid near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. And after positive sentiment lifted the greenback back above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern last week, the USDX’s medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish.More importantly, though, after the USD Index rallied by 0.63% last week and further validated its bullish breakout, gold, silver, and mining stocks ran in the opposite direction. And with the divergence likely to accelerate over the medium term, the swarm should sting the precious metals during the autumn months.Please see below:Conversely, if the USD Index encounters resistance as it attempts to make a new 2021 high, gold, silver, and mining stocks could enjoy an immaterial corrective upswing. However, the optimism will likely be short lived, and it’s likely a matter of when, not if, the USD Index reaches the illustrious milestone.Equally bullish for the greenback, with the USD Index’s technical strength signaling an ominous ending for the Euro Index, I warned on Sep. 13 that the latter faced a tough road ahead.I wrote:While I have less conviction in the Euro Index’s next move relative to the USD Index, more likely than not, the Euro Index should break down once again and the bearish momentum should resume over the medium term.And after the Euro Index sunk below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern last week, lower lows remains the most likely outcome over the medium term.Please see below:Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around).Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration.Moreover, as the journey unfolds, the bullish signals from 2014 have resurfaced once again. For example, the USD Index’s RSI is hovering near a similar level (marked with red ellipses), and back then, a corrective downswing also occurred at the previous highs. More importantly, though, the short-term weakness was followed by a profound rally in 2014, and many technical and fundamental indicators signal that another reenactment could be forthcoming.Please see below:Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea.Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the greenback’s back.Please see below:The bottom line?Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop, ~98 is likely the next stop after that, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters.In conclusion, the USD Index’s sweet performance left sour tastes in the precious metals’ mouths. And with the former’s bullish breakout signaling an ominous future for the latter, gold, silver, and mining stocks will likely confront new lows over the medium term. However, once the autumn months fade and the winter weather approaches, buying opportunities may present themselves. And with unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy likely to underwrite new highs in the coming years, the long-term outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks remains extremely bright.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

September 20-25 Trade Ideas

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 21.09.2021 11:55
US stock market corrects, gold recovers and the crypto market drops hard! Best trade opportunities during this week in the article! Let’s check the charts and set some goals!NASDAQ (US100)The US100 index plunges as the US dollar strengthens. The US stock market will face a big correction at the end of September!Daily chartNASDAQ faces the correction everybody has been waiting several months. US stock index gained by more than 120% since March 2020 drop. Targets are 14600 (2,7%) and 14000 (7,1%).GOLD (XAU/USD)Gold has always been the best safe-haven asset. This market turbulence period will not be an exception. XAU/USD already shows strength against the whole market, and we suppose this trend to continue. Targets are $1777 and $1783.Bitcoin (BTC/USD)Bitcoin price demonstrates that the community does not recognize crypto as a safe haven. Bitcoin plunges by 8% on Monday. Despite this, we expect the pullback to happen during this week if Bitcoin steaks above $44 200 by the end of Monday's trading session. Target is $47 000. If it breaks, $42 850 support level and holds below it, we will see a drop with the target at $40 500.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Time to Buy the Dip?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.09.2021 16:06
S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might not be over, and the question is how far will it reach on a fresh attempt – 4,350s look attainable.There, the fate of this correction would be decided, but we‘re on the verge of the historically more volatile part of Sep, and tomorrow‘s FOMC would up the ante. The dollar though was unable to rally, to keep intraday gains – on one hand a certain show of strength given the retreat in Treasury yields, on the other hand, proof of stiff headwinds as the world reserve currency isn‘t in a bull market. I‘m leaning towards the latter explanation.As stocks rebound in what may still turn out to be a dead cat bounce, commodities got clobbered too – just as cryptos did. Gold attracted safe haven demand as money flew to Treasuries as well. Miners with silver holding ground, are a good sign for the sector – the overwhelmingly negative sentiment looks getting long in the tooth.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookHalf full body, half lower knot – such are the trickiest of candles. The fate of the downswing is being decided, and the bears need to break below 4,350s to regain initiative. I wouldn‘t be surprised to see stocks diverge from credit markets as buy the dip mentality hasn‘t spoken its last word.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds haven‘t made a strong enough comeback – their behavior through Wednesday, is of key importance now.Gold, Silver and MinersGold has a chance to prove its local bottom is in, even if miners aren‘t yet confirming. Should the rebound in stocks hold, silver alongside commodities stands to benefit the most.Crude OilOil stocks and oil dived in sympathy, but black gold looks quite resilient to wild price swings. The bounce appears to have paused for the day.CopperCopper doesn‘t look as stabilized as oil does at the moment – prices haven‘t yet meaningfully decelerated, and the buying power isn‘t convincing.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are joining the selloff, and the golden cross is in danger of being invalidated fast. Breaking below the early Aug lows would mean a fresh downleg is here. Let‘s see first the degree of liquidity returning to cryptos.SummaryIs the selling over, is it not? Still inconclusive, but time for the bears is running short. The selling doesn‘t appear to be over, but I‘m not calling for a break of yesterday‘s lows before tomorrow is over. The degree of commodities outperformance today will be insightful as to the overall rebound strength.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Trading Energy ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.09.2021 17:37
Trading energy ETFs outside of US exchanges can be tricky, as it often means lower liquidity and some latency, but is it worth trying? Definitely!Let’s do a comparative study between the WTI Crude Oil (CL) and an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) tracking this energy commodity as the underlying asset.PreludeIn the previous two-part series (see Part I & Part II), we presented different ways to trade energies such as stocks, ETFs, CFDs and futures. We saw that picking the right instrument or vehicle depended on businesses, regions, risk profiles, psychology, etc. So, today, as an example, we will compare the well-known WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract (quoted in US dollars) with a 2:1 (2x) leveraged ETF traded in Toronto, in Canadian dollars.Crude Oil (CL) Futures Vs. Horizons BetaPro Crude Oil Leveraged Daily Bull ETFHere is a comparison table between the two products:CME/NYMEX WTI Crude Oil FuturesCodes: CL (Standard), MCL (Micro)Currency: USDSpecs: CME (standard), CME (micro)Horizons Crude Oil 2x Daily Bull ETFCode: HOUCurrency: CADSpecifications: Horizons ETFsWTI Crude Oil Futures:CL (Exchange: CME Group)Higher liquidityNo management feesHigher leverage24-hour accessCross-marginingTighter correlation to physical marketOther Crude Oil ETFs (quoted in USD):USO/UCO/DBO/USL/SCO/OILK/OILLower liquidityLow management feeLower leverage (2:1) and less riskEasy access to the marketLess maintenance for position rollingRead more: CME Group – ETF DatabaseBrent Crude Oil Futures:B (Exchange: ICE)Brent Crude Oil ETF:BNO (ETF Database)And here are the latest charts:CL:HOU:As an example, we take our last oil trading alert about CL Futures that we somehow “translate” into HOU (ETF). It is noticeable that the prices on the HOU ETF are completely different from the Futures, even though the correlation coefficient is 1 since they are perfectly correlated. Therefore, if both assets move similarly together (as the ETF by definition tracks the WTI Crude Oil futures), it is quite simple to draw the same levels that we give for CL to HOU (or any other ETF trackers).However, some pricing discrepancies may appear on the ETF chart sometimes. Those are due to a delay in tracking the underlying asset, notably due to the fact that the ETF tracker has to catch-up with the Futures prices at the open (because there is no complete market close for the futures the latter benefits from extended market hours). Some other slight discrepancies in the ETF pricing are also present due to the fact that the fund offering the product automatically processes to contract-rolling on the underlying futures. In short, we could equate the ETF to a hypothetical lagging (delayed) indicator of the WTI CL futures.Volume Profile AccuracyBy comparing the volume profiles respectively for both products, we can also notice some differences. For example, the Volume Point of Control (VPOC) is not always located at the same place, since there are much fewer trade prices (and obviously much less traded volume) for ETFs than Futures. So, the accuracy of Volume Areas and their respective VPOCs (red horizontal lines) could be discussed. However, would that make them less reliable levels for ETFs? Not sure.Actually, it may sometimes give another view of the market by removing some noise - therefore, they could potentially be used to confirm levels in a clearer way while ignoring/excluding the Asian-Pacific trading session as well as the first half (morning and early afternoon) of the European one, since the HOU prices will be based solely on the Canadian trading session that overlaps most of the Western region, including the U.S. trading session.Dichotomy MethodA good way to spot the same levels on such a chart (of a product quoted in a different price scale or in another currency) could be to use some sort of “dichotomy” method: drawing the supports and resistance levels from extremities to the center to mark the swing lows/highs and then recentre the scope by taking some mid-point levels. For example, by drawing each support and resistance levels in the same manner as we provide them on futures charts to “translate” them into the desired correlated instrument such as an ETF. This method could help spot the equivalent entry/exit levels, stop loss, targets, etc.An alternative would consist of using the same indicators on both charts to show similar data at similar levels, like, for example, Fibonacci levels, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Pivot Points, etc.And finally, setting price alerts on the underlying chart in order to enter the trade through a market order in the ETF is possible as well, however it’s not very convenient…In conclusion, we explored in this article the different ways to trade our Oil and Gas Trading Alerts using a broader range of products: instruments with more or less leverage, in your local currency, different time zones and other price scales. However, the abovementioned methods are practicable as long as the main condition is respected: it requires at least a very high correlation between the main instrument(s) for which we provide alerts and your favourite product(s).Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

How Do You Get Inflation Under Control?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.09.2021 16:20
Raise the dollar, drop the metals. Under most possible scenarios, things don’t look good for gold, silver, and mining stocks – for the medium-term.With the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields the main fundamental drivers of the PMs’ performance, some confusion has arisen due to their parallel and divergent moves. For example, sometimes the USD Index rises while U.S. Treasury yields fall, or vice-versa, and sometimes the pair move higher/lower in unison. However, it’s important to remember that different economic environments have different impacts on the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields.To explain, the USD Index benefits from both the safe-haven bid (stock market volatility) and economic outperformance relative to its FX peers. Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields only benefit from the latter. Thus, when economic risks intensify (like what we witnessed with Evergrande on Sep. 20), the USD Index often rallies while U.S. Treasury yields often fall. Thus, the economic climate is often the fundamental determinant of the pairs’ future paths.For context, I wrote on Apr.16:The PMs suffer during three of four possible scenarios:When the bond market and the stock market price in risk, it’s bearish for the PMsWhen the bond market and the stock market don’t price in risk, it’s bearish for the PMsWhen the bond market doesn’t price in risk, but the stock market does, it’s bearish for the PMsWhen the bond market prices in risk and the stock market doesn’t, it’s bullish for the PMsRegarding scenario #1, when the bond market and the stock market price in risk (economic stress), the USD Index often rallies and its strong negative correlation with the PMs upends their performance. Regarding scenario #2, when the bond market and the stock market don’t price in risk, U.S. economic strength supports a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S, Treasury yields reduce the fundamental attractiveness of gold. For context, the PMs are non-yielding assets, and when interest rates rise, bonds become more attractive relative to gold (for some investors). Regarding scenario #3, when the stock market suffers and U.S. Treasury yields are indifferent, the usual uptick in the USD Index is a bearish development for the PMs (for the same reasons outlined in scenario #1). Regarding scenario #4, when the bond market prices in risk (lower yields) and the stock market doesn’t, inflation-adjusted (real) interest rates often decline, and risk-on sentiment can hurt the USD Index. As a result, the cocktail often uplifts the PMs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.The bottom line? The USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields can move in the same direction or forge different paths. However, while a stock market crash is likely the most bearish fundamental outcome that could confront the PMs, scenario #2 is next in line. While it may (or may not) seem counterintuitive, a strong U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs. When U.S. economic strength provides a fundamental thesis for both the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields to rise (along with real interest rates), the double-edged sword often leaves gold and silver with deep lacerations.In the meantime, though, with investors eagerly awaiting the Fed’s monetary policy decision today, QE is already dying a slow death. Case in point: not only has the USD Index recaptured 93 and surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern, but the greenback’s fundamentals remain robust. With 78 counterparties draining more than $1.240 trillion out of the U.S. financial system on Sep. 21, the Fed’s daily reverse repurchase agreements hit another all-time high.Please see below:Source: New York FedTo explain, a reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the Fed in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the Fed at an alarming rate. And while I’ve been warning for months that the activity is the fundamental equivalent of a taper – due to the lower supply of U.S. dollars (which is bullish for the USD Index) – the psychological effect is not the same. However, as we await a formal taper announcement from the Fed, the U.S. dollar’s fundamental foundation remains quite strong.Furthermore, with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) publishing a rather cryptic article on Sep. 10 titled “Fed Officials Prepare for November Reduction in Bond Buying,” messaging from the central bank’s unofficial mouthpiece implies that something is brewing. And while the Delta variant and Evergrande provide the Fed with an excuse to elongate its taper timeline, surging inflation has the Fed increasingly handcuffed.As a result, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle expects the Fed to provide “advance notice” today and set the stage for an official taper announcement in November. He wrote:“While the start date now appears set, the pace of tapering is an open question. Our standing forecast is that the FOMC will taper at a pace of $15bn per meeting, split between $10bn in UST and $5bn in MBS, ending in September 2022. But a number of FOMC participants have called instead for a faster pace that would end by mid-2022, and we now see $15bn per meeting vs. $15bn per month as a close call.”On top of that, with stagflation bubbling beneath the surface, another hawkish shift could materialize.To explain, I wrote on Jun. 17:On Apr. 30, I warned that Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), was materially behind the inflation curve.I wrote:With Powell changing his tune from not seeing any “unwelcome” inflation on Jan. 14 to “we are likely to see upward pressure on prices, but [it] will be temporary” on Apr. 28, can you guess where this story is headed next?And with the Fed Chair revealing on Jun. 16 what many of us already knew, he conceded:Source: CNBCMoreover, while Powell added that “our expectation is these high inflation readings now will abate,” he also conceded that “you can think of this meeting that we had as the ‘talking about talking about’ [tapering] meeting, if you’d like.”However, because actions speak louder than words, notice the monumental shift below?Source: U.S. FedTo explain, if you analyze the red box, you can see that the Fed increased its 2021 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index projection from a 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) rise to a 3.4% YoY rise. But even more revealing, the original projection was made only three months ago. Thus, the about face screams of inflationary anxiety.What’s more, I highlighted on Aug. 5 that the hawkish upward revision increased investors’ fears of a faster rate-hike cycle and contributed to the rise in the USD Index and the fall in the GDXJ ETF (our short position).Please see below:And why is all of this so important? Well, with Mericle expecting the Fed to increase its 2021 PCE Index projection from 3.4% to 4.3% today (the red box below), if the Fed’s message shifts from we’re adamant that inflation is “transitory” to “suddenly, we’re not so sure,” a re-enactment of the June FOMC meeting could uplift the USD Index and upend the PMs once again. For context, the FOMC’s July meeting did not include a summary of its economic projections and today’s ‘dot plot’ will provide the most important clues.Please see below:Finally, with CNBC proclaiming on Sep. 21 that the Fed is “widely expected to indicate it is getting ready to announce it will start paring back its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” even the financial media expects some form of “advance notice.”Source: CNBCThe bottom line? While the Delta variant and Evergrande have provided the Fed with dovish cover, neither addresses the underlying problem. With inflation surging and the Fed’s 2% annual target looking more and more like wishful thinking, reducing its bond-buying program, increasing the value of the U.S. dollar, and decreasing commodity prices is the only way to get inflation under control. In absence, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will likely continue its upward momentum and the cost-push inflationary spiral will likely continue as well.In conclusion, the gold miners underperformed gold once again on Sep. 21 and the relative weakness is profoundly bearish. Moreover, while the USD Index was roughly flat, Treasury yields rallied across the curve. And while Powell will do his best to thread the dovish needle today, he’s stuck between a rock and a hard place: if he talks down the U.S. dollar (like he normally does), commodity prices will likely rise, and inflation will likely remain elevated. If he acknowledges reality and prioritizes controlling inflation, the U.S. dollar will likely surge, and the general stock market should suffer. As a result, with the conundrum poised to come to a head over the next few months (maybe even today), the PMs are caught in the crossfire and lower lows will likely materialize over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

S&P500 - Expect Volatility Upon FOMC Release

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.09.2021 16:46
The S&P 500 index closed virtually flat on Tuesday following Monday’s sell-off and late-day rebound off the 4,300 price level. Is the correction over?The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since July 20 on Monday, as it reached the daily low of 4,305.91. It was 239.9 points or 5.28% below the September 2 record high of 4,545.85. We’ve witnessed an intraday rebound as the market closed around 52 points above the daily low. And on Tuesday it got back to the 4,400 price level before closing 0.08% lower, at 4,354.19.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index is now at 4,300-4,330 and the next support level is at 4,200. On the other hand, the nearest important resistance level is now at 4,400-4,450, marked by the previous support level. The S&P 500 broke below its over four-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Medium-Term Downward Reversal or Just a Correction?The S&P 500 index broke below its medium-term upward trend line a few weeks ago. On Monday it fell to the nearest important support level is of 4,300, as we can see on the weekly chart:Dow Jones Remains Relatively WeakLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. In early September the blue-chip index broke below a two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern. It remained relatively weaker in August - September, as it didn’t reach new record high like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. And on Monday it fell below its July local low of around 33,740 before bouncing back to the 34,000 mark. The resistance level is now at 34,000-34,500, and the support level remains at around 33,500, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Is At the Previous Local lowsApple stock weighs around 6.3% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. In early September it reached a new record high of $157.26. And since then it has been declining. So it looked like a bull trap trading action. On Monday the stock sold off to the previous local lows along $142 price level. They act as a support level. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around $145-146, marked by the recent local lows.ConclusionOn Monday, the S&P 500 index accelerated the downtrend from the early September record high and yesterday it bounced to the 4,400 price level before closing virtually flat. It looked like a short-covering rally and a short-term upward correction. Today, we will have the important FOMC release at 2:00 p.m. We will likely see an increased volatility and the index may fluctuate within its Monday’s daily trading range.There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Therefore, we think that the short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.Here’s the breakdown:The market accelerated its downtrend on Monday, as the S&P 500 index got close to 4,300 level.Our speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective.We are expecting some more downward pressure and a correction to 4,200-4,250 level.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

So Much for Hawkish Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.09.2021 15:54
So long – better said (as if it did apply in the first place). If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans, cushioned with the „may be appropriate“ and Nov time designations. Coupled with the few and far away rate hikes on the dot plot, something fishy appears going on.While the real economy recovery progress has been acknowledged (how does that tie in with GDP downgrades and other macroeconomic realities I raised in yesterday‘s extensive analysis?), I think that the bar is being set a bit too high. Almost as if to give a (valid) reason for why not to taper right next. And the theater of taper on-off could go on, otherwise called jawboning, as markets reaction to this fragile phase of the economic recovery (marked by increasing deflationary undercurrents as shown by declining Treasury yields and contagion risks – make no mistake, Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg, real estate has been heating up over the last 1+ year around the world, and in the U.S. we have BlackRock mopping up residential real estate supply, underpinning high real estate prices especially when measured against income). Don‘t forget the weak non-farm payrolls either when it comes to the list of excuses to choose from.At the same time, we have not been entertained by the debt ceiling drama nearly enough yet. Right, the Fed is projecting the aura of independence, which made a Sep decision all the more unlikely. And who says we‘re short of drama these days?So, S&P 500 looks seeing through the Fed fog, but don‘t forget about the historical tendency to fade the first day (FOMC day) move during the next 1-2 days. So, I‘m looking for a certain paring off of yesterday‘s upswing in both paper and real assets. And that includes backing and filling in both commodities, precious metals and cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe bulls are on the move, running into headwinds though – more intraday hesitation (inan overall up day with a notable upper knot) is expected.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds again merely kept opening gains – there is still hesitation, but the bullish spirits are ever so slowly returning.Gold, Silver and MinersGold was still stunned by the taper plans presented, and miners are bidding their time. We haven‘t turned the corner yet.Crude OilOil stocks confirmed the oil upswing, and black gold‘s chart still maintains bullish posture.CopperCopper didn‘t really hesitate – the red metal produced another wild upswing, but the volume and base is lacking, and might take a moment to establish itself.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum rebounded, but the volume could have been larger – what was amiss there, could be compensated by prices hanging above at least the midpoint of yesterday‘s white candle.SummaryThe balance of power is shifting to the bulls, who are about to face a retracement attempt of yesterday‘s upswing, however. The degree of its mildness would hint at what to expect next – crucially, the dollar is getting the Fed (not a hawk) message, which would serve to cushion any hiccups taking markets lower over the nearest days.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

So Much for Hawkish Fed - 23.09.2021

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.09.2021 15:55
So long – better said (as if it did apply in the first place). If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans, cushioned with the „may be appropriate“ and Nov time designations. Coupled with the few and far away rate hikes on the dot plot, something fishy appears going on.While the real economy recovery progress has been acknowledged (how does that tie in with GDP downgrades and other macroeconomic realities I raised in yesterday‘s extensive analysis?), I think that the bar is being set a bit too high. Almost as if to give a (valid) reason for why not to taper right next. And the theater of taper on-off could go on, otherwise called jawboning, as markets reaction to this fragile phase of the economic recovery (marked by increasing deflationary undercurrents as shown by declining Treasury yields and contagion risks – make no mistake, Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg, real estate has been heating up over the last 1+ year around the world, and in the U.S. we have BlackRock mopping up residential real estate supply, underpinning high real estate prices especially when measured against income). Don‘t forget the weak non-farm payrolls either when it comes to the list of excuses to choose from.At the same time, we have not been entertained by the debt ceiling drama nearly enough yet. Right, the Fed is projecting the aura of independence, which made a Sep decision all the more unlikely. And who says we‘re short of drama these days?So, S&P 500 looks seeing through the Fed fog, but don‘t forget about the historical tendency to fade the first day (FOMC day) move during the next 1-2 days. So, I‘m looking for a certain paring off of yesterday‘s upswing in both paper and real assets. And that includes backing and filling in both commodities, precious metals and cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe bulls are on the move, running into headwinds though – more intraday hesitation (inan overall up day with a notable upper knot) is expected.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds again merely kept opening gains – there is still hesitation, but the bullish spirits are ever so slowly returning.Gold, Silver and MinersGold was still stunned by the taper plans presented, and miners are bidding their time. We haven‘t turned the corner yet.Crude OilOil stocks confirmed the oil upswing, and black gold‘s chart still maintains bullish posture.CopperCopper didn‘t really hesitate – the red metal produced another wild upswing, but the volume and base is lacking, and might take a moment to establish itself.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum rebounded, but the volume could have been larger – what was amiss there, could be compensated by prices hanging above at least the midpoint of yesterday‘s white candle.SummaryThe balance of power is shifting to the bulls, who are about to face a retracement attempt of yesterday‘s upswing, however. The degree of its mildness would hint at what to expect next – crucially, the dollar is getting the Fed (not a hawk) message, which would serve to cushion any hiccups taking markets lower over the nearest days.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Attempts Reversal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.09.2021 08:49
GBPUSD bounces off triple bottomThe pound surged after the Bank of England raised its inflation forecast.The pair has met strong buying interest at the triple bottom (1.3600) on the daily chart. A bullish RSI divergence was an indication that the sellers have taken their feet off the pedal.A subsequent rally above 1.3690 would prompt more bears to cover. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the initial impulse.Patient buyers would be waiting for a pullback before jumping in. A rebound above 1.3800 would challenge the September high at 1.3900.USDCHF tests Fibonacci levelThe Swiss franc softened after the Swiss National Bank pledged to keep its policy loose.The US dollar saw an acceleration in its momentum after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9260. The RSI’s double top has triggered a pullback to let the bulls catch their breath.The pair has found bids at the 61.8% (0.9220) Fibonacci retracement level. A break above 0.9280 would resume the rally towards April’s peak at 0.9460.A bearish breakout could send the greenback to 0.9160, a key floor to keep the uptrend afloat.USDCAD tests key supportThe Canadian dollar halts its advance as July’s retail sales unexpectedly show a contraction.The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the August high (1.2950). The pullback is testing the key support at 1.2635. An oversold RSI may attract some bids. Then the bulls need to lift 1.2795 for continuation.Failing that, a bearish breakout would dent the optimism and those who previously bought in this demand area would have to get out. Then 1.2500, a is major support on the daily chart, would be the second line of defense.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Attempts Reversal - 24.09.2021

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 24.09.2021 08:49
GBPUSD bounces off triple bottomThe pound surged after the Bank of England raised its inflation forecast.The pair has met strong buying interest at the triple bottom (1.3600) on the daily chart. A bullish RSI divergence was an indication that the sellers have taken their feet off the pedal.A subsequent rally above 1.3690 would prompt more bears to cover. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the initial impulse.Patient buyers would be waiting for a pullback before jumping in. A rebound above 1.3800 would challenge the September high at 1.3900.USDCHF tests Fibonacci levelThe Swiss franc softened after the Swiss National Bank pledged to keep its policy loose.The US dollar saw an acceleration in its momentum after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9260. The RSI’s double top has triggered a pullback to let the bulls catch their breath.The pair has found bids at the 61.8% (0.9220) Fibonacci retracement level. A break above 0.9280 would resume the rally towards April’s peak at 0.9460.A bearish breakout could send the greenback to 0.9160, a key floor to keep the uptrend afloat.USDCAD tests key supportThe Canadian dollar halts its advance as July’s retail sales unexpectedly show a contraction.The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the August high (1.2950). The pullback is testing the key support at 1.2635. An oversold RSI may attract some bids. Then the bulls need to lift 1.2795 for continuation.Failing that, a bearish breakout would dent the optimism and those who previously bought in this demand area would have to get out. Then 1.2500, a is major support on the daily chart, would be the second line of defense.
Deflationary Winds Howling

Deflationary Winds Howling

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.09.2021 15:54
Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV is considered.The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates?As I have written yesterday:(…) If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans, cushioned with the „may be appropriate“ and Nov time designations. Coupled with the few and far away rate hikes on the dot plot, something fishy appears going on.While the real economy recovery progress has been acknowledged (how does that tie in with GDP downgrades and other macroeconomic realities I raised in yesterday‘s extensive analysis?), I think that the bar is being set a bit too high. Almost as if to give a (valid) reason for why not to taper right next. And the theater of taper on-off could go on, otherwise called jawboning, as markets reaction to this fragile phase of the economic recovery (marked by increasing deflationary undercurrents as shown by declining Treasury yields and contagion risks – make no mistake, Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg, real estate has been heating up over the last 1+ year around the world, and in the U.S. we have BlackRock mopping up residential real estate supply, underpinning high real estate prices especially when measured against income). Don‘t forget the weak non-farm payrolls either when it comes to the list of excuses to choose from.At the same time, we have not been entertained by the debt ceiling drama nearly enough yet. Right, the Fed is projecting the aura of independence, which made a Sep decision all the more unlikely. And who says we‘re short of drama these days?Given the S&P 500 sectoral performance and not exactly stellar market breadth, this is the time to be cautious, if you‘re a bull. Precious metals haven‘t yet caught the safe haven bid, but aren‘t decisively declining either. Dialing back the risk in stocks makes select commodities more vulnerable – copper more so than oil or natural gas, and cryptos are a chapter in its own right.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe bulls closed yesterday on a strong note, but the upswing was arguably a bit too steep on a very short-term basis.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds giving up their intraday gains coupled with rising yields in quality debt instruments, that‘s not entirely a picture of strength in the credit markets.Gold, Silver and MinersGold declined on the no Fed taper celebrations, and the sectoral weakness is concentrated in the miners. When it comes to silver, the white metal would be influenced by the copper woes – look for good news on the red metal front before expecting the same for silver, that‘s the short-term assessment.Crude OilOil stocks performance lends credibility to the oil upswing, and black gold‘s chart is still bullish – energies are likely to do well even if any CRB hiccups occur.CopperCopper hesitation is back, and both the bulls and bears are waiting as shown by the low volume. The bears have the advantage here.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are suffering on renewed China headlines about cracking on crypto trading. The bears haven‘t gained full traction, though.SummaryYesterday‘s risk-on turn is likely to get questioned, with one day delay – revealing that it‘s not about the Fed setting a tad unrealistic taper pace and conditions. With no fresh stimulus coming, financial assets are facing a fiscal cliff in their own right, that‘s the big picture conclusion, which should temper the bullish appetite across many an asset class.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.09.2021 15:57
Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go?Fundamental UpdatesThe crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021.The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4!Geopolitical SceneThursday evening, Lebanese Hezbollah announced the arrival of a new shipment of oil from Iran to the Syrian port of Banians — the party’s television channel Al Mana reported on its Telegram account this morning. Hezbollah argues that the shipments are intended to help the Lebanese people, who are suffering severe fuel shortages due to the financial crisis the country has been experiencing for the last couple of years.On the other hand, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mimait, expected at the Elysée Palace (Paris) on Friday, said that the shipments from Iran violated Lebanon's sovereignty, as both Syria and Iran are subject to US sanctions.Figure 1 – WTI Crude Oil (CLX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart)Figure 2 – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGV21) Futures (October contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale)With the black gold now attempting to pierce through its all-time highs, it will be interesting to see how oil demand will progress at those levels, as well as whether OPEC+ will face some new pressures to intervene on the supply side in the forthcoming weeks.And… what do you think? We would like to hear from you! What’s your opinion on how high the WTI Crude could go before the end of the year? Do not hesitate to let us know!Have a nice weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.09.2021 16:18
Biden scaled back on his infrastructure bill. However, with all the remaining cards still in play, his economic agenda should be positive for gold.Inflation, bond yields, monetary policy… that’s all interesting and crucial to understand trends in the gold markets – but, hey, what’s up in politics? A lot has happened recently on this front. In particular, last month, the world was shocked by the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The messy pullover and the quick takeover of the country by the Taliban is not only the end of Biden’s honeymoon but also America’s great failure. Some analysts even say that the fall of Kabul is another Saigon time for the US. Indeed, it goes without saying that the collapse in Afghanistan is a huge blow to America’s reputation. So, it could weaken the faith in Uncle Sam and its currency, which could be positive for gold in the long run.However, the end of the US mission in Afghanistan doesn’t pose any direct threats to America (although terrorism could thrive under the Taliban regime) or to the greenback. So, I don’t expect any substantial, long-lasting moves in gold prices (always remember that geopolitical events cause only short-lived fluctuations, if any).Another recent important development in the US policy was that the Senate passed a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which is a big step in pushing Biden’s economic agenda through Congress. The economic effect will probably be smaller than expected, as public stimulus rarely works as intended. So, I don’t expect any material impact on gold prices, especially given that this additional government spending has already been priced in.However, I would like to point out that Biden has scaled back his infrastructure plans from $2.2 trillion and agreed to spend these funds over a longer period. It means that the US fiscal policy, although still unprecedentedly easy, is normalizing somewhat (see the chart below), at least compared to Democrats’ initial huge plans (however, they are still working on a budget resolution that would allow them to approve a complementary $3.5 trillion spending plan). A normalization of the fiscal policy is bad for gold prices, especially when coupled with the Fed’s tightening cycle.Let’s step back — it turns out that it’s quite fruitful to look at Biden’s economic agenda from a bit broader perspective. It becomes clear that Biden – despite his hatred for Trump – actually continues Trumponomics. Nouriel Roubini calls Biden’s doctrine “neo-populist” and sees the paradox in the fact that it “has more in common with Trump’s policies than with those of Barack Obama’s administration, in which the current president previously served”.Indeed, every president from Bill Clinton to Obama favored trade liberalization and a strong dollar while respecting the Fed’s independence. They were also understanding the importance of the moderate fiscal policy (although the practice differed, especially after the financial crisis of 2007-9). They were far from being laissez-faire advocates, but at least they didn’t question the economic orthodoxy.Then Trump stepped in, inaugurating a trade war with China, and imposing tariffs on goods from other countries as well. He also questioned the Fed’s actions, which supported a weak greenback and ballooned fiscal deficits even before the epidemic started.Biden’s rhetoric is softer and his actions less erratic, but he has maintained Trump’s tariffs, pursuing similar nationalist and protectionist trade policy. He even widened the already large budget deficit, continuing the spending spree financed by public debt. Although Biden doesn’t openly favor a weak dollar, the current administration is far from pursuing a strong-dollar policy. He also supported large direct cash transfers to citizens that Trump started in response to the pandemic. Last but not least, Biden fights with Big Business, introducing some anti-monopoly policies.What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the continuation of neo-populist economic doctrine and shifting away from sound economics (I wrote about this earlier this year) implies generally looser monetary and fiscal policies. Larger debts create a risk of a debt crisis, while downplaying the inflationary pressures (as for populists, price stability is less important than employment gains, rising wages, or reducing inequalities) increases the odds of inflation crisis or even stagflation (big government and huge indebtedness could hamper the pace of GDP growth).As we know from Latin America, the rules of populists and MMT-like policies never end well. And, as we know from the 1970s, constant stimulation of the economy (because there is still some slack) and neglecting the dangers of inflation could be disastrous. So, Bidenomics should be generally supportive of gold.Having said that, investors should remember that many more factors influence gold prices than just the President’s actions. A part of Biden’s presidency will coincide with the economic expansion from the pandemic recession and normalization of the interest rates that will likely create downward pressure on the yellow metal.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – DAX 40 Struggles To Rally

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.09.2021 08:58
GER 40 hits tough resistanceEuropean markets struggle as embattled property giant Evergrande faces more coupon payments this week.The Dax 40’s tentative break below the major support at 15050 weighs on traders’ risk appetite. Unless the bulls can push back and absorb offers at 15780, the index could be vulnerable to a deeper correction.An overbought RSI has caused a stall in the recovery. A bearish MA cross may attract selling interest. 15400 is an important gatekeeper and a breach could trigger a sharp sell-off to 14900.NZDUSD retraces to major supportThe US dollar continues to creep up after the Fed’s hawkish tilt. The RSI’s overbought situation suggests that the kiwi’s initial breakout has over-stretched itself.Buying interest could lie between 0.6980 and the psychological level of 0.7000. The bulls will need to clear the origin of the September sell-off (0.7110), and then they could seal the continuation of the rally towards 0.7210.However, if this turns out to be a false rebound, a bearish breakout would dent the hope of recovery and send the pair to 0.6880.XAGUSD tests critical supportThe rising Treasury yields and US dollar weigh on precious metals. Some bargain hunters were eager to buy silver at the psychological level of 22.00, which is also critical support from the daily timeframe.However, the rebound has seen strong selling interest at 23.10. Should buyers gather enough momentum to break free, 23.80 would be the next target.On the downside, a bearish breakout would shake the last buyers out and conclude an eleven-month-long consolidation with a bearish reversal.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Reflation vs. Stagflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.09.2021 13:17
S&P 500 didn‘t give in to the opening weakness, and eked out minor gains. There was no selling into the close either – the table looks set for the muddle through to continue on Monday. Tech and value – uninspiring on the day, and the same could be said of the credit markets. Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.As I wrote on Friday:(…) The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates?Precious metals should love the ever more negative real rates, and the financial repression that does accompany them. Commodities and real assets are bound to do great long-term, and stocks would enjoy the most the reflationary stage, the early stage of inflation where everyone benefits and no one pays. In spite of all the real world inflation, we‘ve not yet entered its nasty, late phase.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFriday brought a daily pause in the upswing – the bulls however didn‘t yield to the sellers through the day.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds gave up less ground than quality debt instruments, whose downswing was arguably a bit too steep. The non-confirmation of the stock market advance though is barely visible.Gold, Silver and MinersGold managed to hold ground in spite of the steep rise in yields, but miners keep on being more and more undervalued – if you‘re a long-term investor, these are very interesting prices throughout the PMs sector. Silver keeps trading at odds with copper, and both metals (including a couple more), are required for the green economy shift.Crude OilOil stocks paused on Friday, and so will the oil upswing likely too next. Energies though remain bullish, and dips are to be bought.CopperCopper closed at weekly highs, but hesitated still when compared to the CRB Index. All isn‘t well if you look at BHP (or FCX), which is a proxy for both copper and China.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum have recovered from the China crypto trading crackdown notice, and keep repelling the bears successfully.SummaryRisk-on wasn‘t dethroned on Friday, but didn‘t convince either. Apart from select commodities, strong gains were absent. Wait and see on low volume day – one that is likely to carry over into Monday. Risk-on assets still haven‘t cut the corner (no recapturing of the 50-day moving average), and the VIX below 19 is slowly approaching the lower border of its recent range, meaning that volatility can surprise us shortly again.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Gas and Oil Are at Record Highs

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 27.09.2021 13:22
What is happening with gas?Analysts of HSBC revealed their outlook on energy prices. They expected the gas price to be “exceptionally high” this winter because a global shortage pushed some energy firms to close. Supply is going to be weak, while demand will rise sharply in the winter season, pushing gas prices even higher. According to Bloomberg, ‘European gas prices surged by almost 500% in the past year and are trading near record’. The high energy prices in turn forced producers in Europe to decrease production, which can lead to higher costs for farmers and potentially add to global food inflation. Source: Bloomberg What is happening with oil?A combo of strong demand and poor supply have sent oil prices to the high unseen since 2018. This winter is going to be good for oil suppliers but not for its consumers, who are switching from gas to cheaper oil. Vitol Group, the world’s largest oil trader, anticipates oil demand to rise by half a million barrels a day this winter. It will support oil prices. Why is it important for traders?There are oil and gas trading instruments that are becoming more popular among traders: XBR/USD (Brent oil), XTI/USD (WTI oil), and XNG/USD (gas). Tech outlookJust look at the XBR/USD. It has opened today with a gap up, getting closer to the psychological level of $80.00 a barrel. The jump above this mark will open the doors towards the three-year high of $84.00. Support levels are $75.00 and $70.00.XTI/USD tends to move together with XBR/USD, but it has outrun its peer. It has already approached the three-year high, which is at $75.00. WE might expect a short pullback before oil prices will continue rallying up. When oil closes above $75.00, it may surge to $80.00. Support levels are $70.00 and $65.00. A cup and handle pattern has almost occurred on the XNG/USD chart. If gas breaks out the mid-September high of $5.50, it may rocket to 5.70! Support levels are at the 50 and 100-period moving averages: $5.15 and $5.00. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Medium-Term Downtrend: Gold Miners in the Lead

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.09.2021 16:08
Gold, silver, and mining stocks don’t need any help from the USDX or the stock market; they can decline all on their own – the miners in particular.Last week, mining stocks declined quite visibly, and it happened without significant help from the USD Index and from the general stock market. Silver and gold were practically flat week-over-week, so was the USD Index, and the general stock market (S&P 500) was up by 0.51%. This means that gold stocks and silver stocks should have closed the week relatively unchanged (as gold and silver did), or move somewhat higher (similarly to other stocks, as sometimes miners take their lead).Instead, all important proxies for the mining stocks moved lower and closed the week at new daily and weekly 2021 lows. The HUI Index and the GDX ETF were down by about 3%, the silver stocks (SIL ETF) were down by 3.6%, and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior miners) was down by 3.83%, which means that our short position in the latter just became even more profitable.Most importantly, it means that mining stocks continue to show weakness relative to gold, which tells us that the medium-term downtrend remains well intact. It also tells us that what I wrote previously about the medium-term link between the general stock market and mining stocks was most likely correct. Namely, that miners can decline without a decline in other stocks. A decline in the latter, will (as I still expect to see it sooner or later) simply exacerbate the decline’s volatility.Let’s take a look at the charts, starting with the long-term HUI Index chart – the flagship proxy for gold stocks.The clearest and most important thing that you can see on this chart is that gold miners continued their decline after completing – and verifying – the breakdown below the broad head and shoulders pattern (marked in green). Just like in the case of the previous similar patterns (also marked in green), mining stocks are likely to now decline profoundly. The 3% decline that we saw last week is likely just a small beginning of the entire slide.Yes, the Stochastic indicator is very oversold, but please note that it was the same in 2013 during the powerful post-head-and-shoulders-breakdown slide. And it didn’t cause the decline to end or reverse.The breakdown to yearly lows is also crystal-clear in case of the GDX ETF. The weekly close below the previous 2021 lows is critical, but it’s worth noting that it was also a close below the psychologically important (as its round) $30 level.The next target for the GDX ETF is based mainly on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire 2020 rally. The previous retracements worked quite well, so it seems that this technique shouldn’t be ignored.The 38.2% retracement served as support in November 2020. The decline below this level triggered a short-term rebound.The 50% retracement served as support in March and August 2021. This level was particularly strong as it corresponded to the previous – May and June 2020 – lows. Reaching this level triggered rebounds. The first one was quite significant, and the second one was of only short-term importance.When the GDX ETF moves to its 61.8% it’s likely to rebound in the short term (and probably in the short term only), not only because of the retracement itself, but also because two additional techniques confirm this level as a short-term target. One is the support provided by the late-March 2020 high, and the other is the previous head and shoulders pattern that formed between April and early August 2021. Based on the size of the head (red, dashed lines), GDX is likely to decline to about $28.And while the GDX is likely to decline, so is its counterpart focused on junior mining stocks – the GDXJ ETF.In the case of the GDXJ, the downside target is broader, as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the late-March 2020 high, and the head-and-shoulders-based target are not so aligned.A decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement here would more or less correspond to the analogous move in the GDX in percentage terms. However, if the junior miners underperform (as they’ve been underperforming seniors for months), they could move even lower before rebounding.On a different note, let’s take a look at what’s happening in a less popular part of the precious metals sector – palladium.On Sep. 7, I wrote the following:Also adding credibility to the conclusions drawn from the volume spikes in the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF, last week, the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) ETF recorded a new 2021 high for weekly volume. And with abnormal volume offering a window into investor sentiment, historical euphoria preceded minor-to-massive declines in gold and silver (the red vertical dashed lines below). As a result, several areas of the precious metals market are sounding the alarm.Last week’s volume spike was an anomaly, and whenever we see one on a given market, it’s useful to check what happened when we saw it previously. At times, you can notice some regularities – a pattern. And such a pattern could have important trading implications. That’s the case with palladium volume spikes, which – while rather inconsequential for palladium itself – were practically always followed by lower gold, silver, and mining stock prices. The implications for the said markets for the following weeks are thus bearish.And indeed, the precious metals sector declined right after that volume spike. So far, the decline was only modest from the long-term point of view. Since some of the declines that followed the previous huge-volume signals from palladium were much bigger (especially the one following the 2020 top), we might see even lower prices of PMs and miners in the next weeks and months as well.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

As Brent Moves Towards $80, Should You Enter a Trade?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.09.2021 17:13
While oil rebounds, $80 is the key price level to watch for.Time for Some Fundamental AnalysisWith supply slipping and solid prospects for demand, the black gold continues to rise, notably dragged by natural gas along with it, as we may see a shift in demand from natural gas to oil. A barrel of North Sea Brent for November delivery peaked at $79.50, up 1.4% from Friday's close. After four consecutive sessions in the green, buyers are not weakening. According to Goldman Sachs, the recovery in global demand is indeed faster than expected.On the supply side, U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico is still cut by some 300,000 barrels per day, a month after Hurricane Ida hit, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). In this environment, the OPEC+ meeting next Monday should raise more attention, even though an immediate change in the cartel’s policy seems unlikely for now.On the UK side, BP said 30% of its gas stations ran out of fuel on Sunday as a rush of panicked consumers to pumps forced the British government to suspend competition rules. According to major oil groups, a shortage of truck drivers makes it difficult to get fuel from refineries. Some operators had to implement rationing while others have closed stations.Figure 1 – WTI Crude Oil (CLX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart)Figure 2 – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart)In brief, crude oil is surging. Natural gas rebounded to get back to its previous highs. I’ll assess the current moves and be waiting to see how the $80 level will act both as a psychological and technical resistance level on the Brent prior to drawing new projections. Detailed positions can be found in my premium Oil Trading Alerts. For the time being, given the increasing volatility, my conclusion is that there is too much risk to enter any trade right now.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Tests Supply Area

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.09.2021 08:45
EURUSD tests major supportThe US dollar found support from better-than-expected durable goods orders.The pair gave up all its gains from the rally in late August. This indicates an erosion in the bullish sentiment.The euro’s latest rebound has been capped by 1.1750. Sellers are pushing towards the critical floor at 1.1665. And its breach would lead to the last line of defense at 1.1600 from November last year.An oversold RSI may bring in some buying interest, though buyers will need to lift 1.1820 before they could hope for a bullish reversal.EURJPY seeks supportThe Japanese yen weakened after the BOJ warned of a recovery delay in its meeting minutes. The euro has capitalized on its rebound from the daily demand zone around 128.00.A close above 129.65 may have tipped the balance to the upside. A break above 130.10 would pave the way to the key resistance of 130.70 on the daily chart.However, a descending RSI from the overbought zone is in contrast with the price’s higher highs. There is a risk of a pullback as the momentum slows down. 129.40 is the immediate support.SPX 500 struggles to reboundThe S&P 500 halted its advance as the Fed’s taper is closing in.The V-shaped recovery has met selling interest at 4482, the origin of a recent sell-off. A diverging RSI suggests a loss of momentum in the rebound.The long side may regain confidence in case of a bullish breakout and 4540 would be the next target. Failing that, a drop below 4425 would prompt buyers to bail out, leaving the index vulnerable to a sharp fall.4340 would be the last support before a deeper correction drives the index to July’s lows near 4240.
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November!

Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.09.2021 15:35
It’s Powell’s doing, as always... the Chair signaled that tapering could be announced as soon as next month. What does this mean for gold bulls?In the latest edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I covered the FOMC’s newest statement on monetary policy and the dot-plot. I concluded that “gold will struggle until the Fed’s tightening cycle is well underway”. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal has been struggling for the most part of this year, and I don’t expect any shifts from that trend anytime soon.Now, it’s high time to analyze Powell’s press conference! In his prepared remarks, the Fed Chair offered a rather upbeat view on the US economy:Real GDP rose at a robust 6.4% pace in the first half of the year, and growth is widely expected to continue at a strong pace in the second half (…) Looking ahead, FOMC participants project the labor market to continue to improve.Powell also downplayed the inflationary risk. He acknowledged that inflation has stayed at a high level for longer than the Fed expected, but, at the same time, he reiterated the Fed’s view of the transitory nature of elevated inflation:These bottleneck effects have been larger and longer-lasting than anticipated, leading to upward revisions to participants’ inflation projections for this year. While these supply effects are prominent for now, they will abate, and as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal.However, the question is: why should we trust the Fed’s current inflation outlook, given that its previous forecasts were clearly wrong and underestimated greatly the real persistence of inflation?Last but not least, Powell offered more clues about tapering of quantitative easing. Although no decision has yet been made, “participants generally view that, so long as the recovery remains on track, a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate”. So, my conclusions would be: given that tapering is said to be very gradual, it’s likely that it will start sooner rather than later.Powell and GoldIndeed, the Q&A session suggests that the Fed could announce tapering as soon as November. It all depends on whether the substantial further progress test for employment will be met or not. For Powell it is now “all but met”, even though it could happen as soon as the next meeting. After all, many of the FOMC members believe that this test has already been met:So if you look at a good number of indicators, you will see that, since last December when we articulated the test and the readings today, in many cases more than half of the distance, for example, between the unemployment rate in December of 2020 and typical estimates of the natural rate, 50 or 60 percent of that road has been traveled. So that could be substantial further progress. Many on the Committee feel that the substantial further progress test for employment has been met. Others feel that it's close, but they want to see a little more progress. There's a range of perspectives. I guess my own view would be that the test, the substantial further progress test for employment is all but met. And so once we've met those two tests, once the Committee decides that they've met, and that could come as soon as the next meeting, that's the purpose of that language is to put notice out there that could come as soon as the next meeting. The Committee will consider that test, and we'll also look at the broader environment at that time and make a decision whether to taper.It seems as though the only condition to be yet fulfilled is that the September employment report has to be “decent”. It doesn’t have to be fantastic, but it can’t be a disaster. Powell says:So, you know, for me, it wouldn't take a knockout, great, super strong employment report. It would take a reasonably good employment report for me to feel like that test is met. And others on the Committee, many on the Committee feel that the test is already met. Others want to see more progress. And, you know, we’ll work it out as we go. But I would say that, in my own thinking, the test is all but met. So I don’t personally need to see a very strong employment report, but I’d like it see a decent employment report.Implications for GoldWhat does Powell’s press conference imply for the gold market? Well, the Fed Chair sounded generally hawkish. He was rather optimistic about the GDP growth and progress in the labor market. Powell also downplayed risks related to Evergrande’s indebtedness.And, most importantly, he signaled that tapering could be announced as soon as November, as many FOMC members believe that the substantial progress towards the Fed’s goal has been already achieved. This is bad news for gold prices.There is, however, a silver lining. There will be no interest rate hikes while the Fed is tapering. So, the real interest rates should stay at ultra-low levels, providing some support for the yellow metal.Having said that, the dot-plot shows that half of FOMC members forecast the first interest rate hike by the end of next year. As a consequence, the market odds for the liftoff in December 2022 increased from 52.9% on September 16 to 72.7% on September 23, 2021. If the federal funds rate goes the hawkish way, it should continue to create downward pressure on gold prices.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Gauntlet to the Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.09.2021 15:49
S&P 500 was unable to sustain intraday gains, and both VIX and volume show the bears want to move. Arguably, the key market to watch, are the Treasuries – the 10-year yield continues rising, knocking on the 1.50% door again. On the day of Powell‘s testimony, that‘s quite a message to the central bank.As I wrote yesterday:(…) Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.The Fed can adjust (and even reverse) the tapering projections any time it pleases – it has played the job market card already. The dollar failing to gain traction though, is telling. Not even commodities as such are rolling over to the downside – actually, energies (oil, natural gas) have been the star performers (even within the S&P 500 sectors), and agrifoods are well positioned to do great as well. Copper and precious metals are feeling the short-term heat (still, the red metal offered a great entry point earlier today, making the open position profitable from the get-go), but the metals would stop reacting to the bad news while ignoring negative real rates (yes, transitory inflation is another myth the market place believes in) at some point. All roads lead to gold – inflationary and deflationary ones alike.What can the Fed do? Underestimate inflation, be behind the curve, carefully play expectations while real world inflation coupled with shattered supply chains wreck the stock market bull over the quarters ahead? Or throughtfully slam on the brakes (which is what the markets think it‘s doing now), which would force a long overdue S&P 500 correction that could reach even 10-15% from the ATHs? Remember that the debt ceiling hasn‘t been resolved yet, so an interesting entry to the month of October awaits.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe real question mark is where the bulls step in next, and whether they could carry prices over Monday‘s highs (4,470s) – this question is a bit too early to ask.Credit MarketsCredit markets haven‘t moderated their pace of decline, but the yield spreads show we have higher to go once the current dust settles.Gold, Silver and MinersGold managed to hold ground yesterday, but further yields pressure is likely to affect it, whether or not it translates to (marginally) higher USD Index.The bears have the short-term initiative till bonds turn.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t treat us to much of an intraday dip, and the oil sector shows the rush into energies is on – no matter how short-term extended and approaching the late Jun highs black gold is.CopperCopper hesitation goes on, with the red metal failing to gain traction the CRB Index way. Still, it‘s range bound, and FCX (which is important for gold too) is showing signs of life.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum bears have reasserted themselves, and would confirm the initiative with a break below $44K in BTC. For now, it‘s too early to declare the end of the trading range.SummarySeptember storms aren‘t over yet, and declining bonds are a warning sign. Commodities are the most resilient, and will likely remain so, until precious metals sniff out the room for Fed‘s hawkishness as radically decreasing. The question marks over the timing and actual pace of taper, are persisting.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Breaks Lower

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.09.2021 09:13
XAUUSD lacks supportGold slumps due to rising US Treasury yields. The demand zone around 1745 has failed to contain the market’s pessimism.The latest bounce has been an opportunity to sell into strength, reinforcing the bearish bias. A combination of loss-cutting and fresh selling would raise the downward momentum.The precious metal is heading towards 1720. A breakout would trigger an extended sell-off to the August low at 1680. The bulls have the daunting task of lifting 1760 before they could expect a meaningful rebound.AUDUSD hits resistanceThe Australian dollar inched higher after a smaller contraction in August’s retail sales.The pair has found strong support at 0.7220. Three consecutive tests are an indication of solid interest in keeping the Aussie afloat.0.7320 is the first resistance ahead. Its breach may shake the sellers out and trigger a rebound to 0.7410.Otherwise, a fall below the said support would cause a deeper correction to the critical level of 0.7105.  Erasing all of the gains from late August would seriously dent buyers’ optimism for a rally.USDCAD bounces off supportThe Canadian dollar is under pressure as oil prices retreat. The pair saw buying interest at 1.2600, which is major support for a four-month-long rally on the daily timeframe.The RSI’s bullish divergence indicates that the selling pressure may have waned.A break above the immediate resistance (1.2670) would prompt sellers to cover. 1.2800 near September’s peak could be the target should a rebound gain traction.On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the price to the psychological level of 1.2500.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Wishing Away Inflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.09.2021 15:44
S&P 500 bears did indeed move, and the dip wasn‘t much bought. VIX with its prominent upper knot may not have said the last word yet, but a brief consolidation of the key volatility metrics is favored next. Even the overnight rebound (dead cat bounce, better said), is losing traction, prompting me to issue a stock market update to subscribers hours ago – fresh short profits can keep growing:(…) Following yesterday’s slide, the S&P 500 upswing appears running into headwinds as credit markets keep putting pressure on the Fed. Rising dollar is thus far having little effect on commodities, and precious metals have retraced a sizable part of the intraday downswing. Tech remains more vulnerable than value, and this correction appears as not (at all) yet over.While the dollar upswing hasn‘t been strongest over the prior week, higher yields are causing it to rise somewhat still. The commodity complex is remarkably resilient – the open long positions are likely to keep doing well – and I don‘t mean only energies. Copper is holding up in the mid 4.20s while precious metals are giving the bears a break – a tentative one, but nonetheless encouraging – as I have written yesterday:(…) the metals would stop reacting to the bad news while ignoring negative real rates (yes, transitory inflation is another myth the market place believes in) at some point. All roads lead to gold – inflationary and deflationary ones alike.What can the Fed do? Underestimate inflation, be behind the curve, carefully play expectations while real world inflation coupled with shattered supply chains wreck the stock market bull over the quarters ahead? Or throughtfully slam on the brakes (which is what the markets think it‘s doing now), which would force a long overdue S&P 500 correction that could reach even 10-15% from the ATHs? Remember that the debt ceiling hasn‘t been resolved yet, so an interesting entry to the month of October awaits.Bonds are signalling that the Fed‘s image of inflation fighter (right or wrong, have your pick) is losing the benefit of the doubt it was given with the Jun FOMC – bond yields have abruptly ended their descent and subsequent trading range. This spells not only inflation (the risk of Fed‘s policy mistake – warnings it would take longer with us than originally anticipated coupled with the professed faith it would just naturally subside all by itself), but smacks of stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookRising volume and some lower knot hint at the possibility of overnight rebound, but the real question is whether that would stick. So far, it doesn‘t seem so.Credit MarketsCredit markets haven‘t moderated their pace of decline, but TLT attempted to find bottom intraday, which would coincide with tech temporarily pausing as well. The dust hasn‘t yet settled.Gold, Silver and MinersGold is having harder and harder time declining, and the miners pause makes yesterday‘s modest downswing suspect. When silver joins in showing some relative strength, we would know the focus is shifting to inflation again, in precious metals as much as in Treasuries – this hasn‘t happened thus far.Crude OilCrude oil finally paused, and its candlestick favors consolidation – oil stocks have remained well performing, pointing out still more upside in the current black gold upleg.CopperCopper hesitation goes on, with the red metal once again trading at odds with the CRB Index, which makes further downside rather limited. Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum bears haven‘t confirmed the initiative with a break below $40K in BTC (sorry for yesterday‘s typo stating $44K – corrected on my site). It‘s too early to declare the end of the trading range – similarly to gold, cryptos have a hard time falling, and that means something.SummaryStocks aren‘t out of the woods yet, and monetary policy has turned into a headwind. Damned if you do, damned if you don‘t – the Fed is having a hard time walking the fine taper line. Rising Treasury yields are a warning sign – commodities are likely to remain the most resilient, and precious metals would join just like cryptos. The question marks over the debt ceiling, the timing and actual pace of taper, keep persisting.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.09.2021 16:31
With a more hawkish Fed disposition, non-commercial traders remaining dollar-strong, and the EUR/USD sinking, it doesn’t bode well for the metals.With U.S. Treasury yields continuing their ascent on Sep. 28, the mini taper tantrum pushed the NASDAQ 100 over a cliff. And with the USD Index loving the surge in volatility, the greenback further cemented its breakout above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern. And looking ahead, the momentum should continue. Case in point: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Sep. 28. In his prepared remarks, he said:“Inflation is elevated and will likely remain so in coming months before moderating. As the economy continues to reopen and spending rebounds, we are seeing upward pressure on prices, particularly due to supply bottlenecks in some sectors. These effects have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, but they will abate, and as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run 2 percent goal.”Furthermore, while I’ve been warning for months that Powell remains materially behind the inflation curve, his prepared remarks didn’t have a single mention of “base effects” or “transitory.” Instead, the Fed chief’s new favorite buzz word is “moderating.”In any event, while I warned on several occasions that the composite container rate has gone from $6.5K to $8.1K to $8.4K to 9.4K, Powell finally admitted that the supply chain disruptions have “gotten worse:”“Look at the car companies, look at the ships with the anchors down outside of Los Angeles,” he said. “This is really a mismatch between demand and supply, we need those supply blockages to alleviate, to abate, before inflation can come down.”For context, the composite container rate is now at $10.4K (the blue line below):To that point, with inflation surging and the Fed materially behind the eight ball, even the doves have turned hawkish since Powell unveiled his accelerated taper timeline on Sep. 22.New York Fed President John Williams told the Economic Club of New York on Sep. 27:“I think it’s clear that we have made substantial further progress on achieving our inflation goal. There has also been very good progress toward maximum employment. Assuming the economy continues to improve as I anticipate, a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”Likewise, Fed Governor Lael Brainard added that labor-market conditions may “soon” warrant a reduction in the Fed’s bond-buying program:“The forward guidance on maximum employment and average inflation sets a much higher bar for the liftoff of the policy rate than for slowing the pace of asset purchases,” Brainard told the National Association for Business Economics on Sep. 27. “I would emphasize that no signal about the timing of liftoff should be taken from any decision to announce a slowing of asset purchases.”For context, she tried to calm investors’ nerves by separating rate hikes from tapering. However, with “a much higher bar” for “liftoff” implying a much lower bar for tapering, QE is likely on its deathbed.Rounding out the hawkish rhetoric, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans also told the National Association for Business Economics on Sep. 27 that “I see the economy as being close to meeting the 'substantial further progress' standard we laid out last December. If the flow of employment improvements continues, it seems likely that those conditions will be met soon and tapering can commence.”And why are these three voices so important?Well, with Powell ramping up the hawkish rhetoric on Sep. 22 and his dovish minions following suit, their messaging is much different than the hawk talk that we normally hear from Bullard, Kaplan and Rosengren. For context, the latter two actually resigned for ethical reasons after their questionable day trading activity became public.Please see below:To explain, the graphic above depicts Bank of America’s FOMC dove-hawk spectrum. From left to right, the blue areas categorize the doves, while the red areas categorize the hawks. If you analyze the third, fourth and fifth columns from the left, you can see that Evans, Powell, Brainard and Williams are known for their dovish dispositions. However, with all four materially shifting their stances in the last week, the hawkish realignments are bullish for U.S. Treasury yields, bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs.For example, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has risen by 19% over the last five trading days. What’s more, the U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield has risen by 24% over the last seven trading days and ended the Sep. 28 session at a new 2021 high. For context, the last time the U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield closed above 1% was Feb. 27, 2020.Please see below:Source: Investing.comOn the opposite end of the double-edged sword slashing the gold price, the USD index is also reasserting its dominance. And with the greenback’s fundamentals also uplifted by higher U.S. Treasury yields, the current (and future) liquidity drains support a stronger U.S. dollar. For one, after 83 counterparties drained more than $1.365 trillion out of the U.S. financial system on Sep. 28, the Fed’s daily reverse repurchase agreements hit another all-time high.Please see below:Source: New York FedTo explain, a reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the Fed in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the Fed at an alarming rate. And while I’ve been warning for months that the activity is the fundamental equivalent of a taper – due to the lower supply of U.S. dollars (which is bullish for the USD Index) – as we await a formal announcement from the Fed, the U.S. dollar’s fundamental foundation remains robust.Second, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds’ allocations to the U.S. dollar remain strong.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue, gray, and light blue lines above represent net-long positions of non-commercial (speculative) futures traders, asset managers and leveraged funds. When the lines are falling, it means that the trio have reduced their net-long positions and are expecting a weaker U.S. dollar. Conversely, when the lines are rising, it means that the trio have increased their net-long positions and are expecting a stronger U.S. dollar. And while asset managers and leveraged funds’ allocations (the gray and light blue lines) remain slightly below their 2021 highs, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders’ allocation to the U.S. dollar has now hit a new 2021 high. As a result, a continuation of the theme should uplift the U.S. dollar and negatively impact the performance of the gold and silver prices.Finally, with the EUR/USD accounting for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, the currency pair has sunk below 1.1700 once again. And with the Fed’s inflationary conundrum dwarfing Europe’s predicament, I warned on Jul. 20 that the dichotomy is bullish for the U.S. dollar.I wrote:Not only is the U.S. economy outperforming the Eurozone, but the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the U.S. HICP. If you analyze the right side of the chart, it’s not even close. And with the U.S. HICP rising by 6.41% YoY in June and the Eurozone HICP rising by 1.90%, the Fed is likely to taper well in advance of the ECB.To that point, with the rhetoric above guiding the Fed down a hawkish path, the ECB is heading in the opposite direction. For example, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Sep. 28 that there are “no signs that this increase in [Eurozone] inflation is becoming broad-based. The key challenge is to ensure that we do not overreact to transitory supply shocks that have no bearing on the medium term…. Monetary policy should normally ‘look through’ temporary supply-driven inflation, so long as inflation expectations remain anchored.”As a result:Source: the Financial TimesThe bottom line? With U.S. Treasury yields and the USD Index firing on all cylinders, the PMs remain caught in the crossfire. And with both variables still having the fundamental wind at their backs, the Fed’s hawkish shift should help underwrite further gains over the medium term.In conclusion, the PMs declined on Sep. 28 and the gold miners continued their underperformance. And with the Fed’s inflationary anxiety sparking a mini taper tantrum, the PMs remain stuck in no man’s land. Furthermore, with the general stock market also feeling the heat, a sharp correction could accelerate the ferocity of the PMs’ current downtrend. As a result, their medium-term outlooks remain quite bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

How to Trade Oil and Gas (Part 2)

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.09.2021 17:23
Oil, gas, and other energy news is everywhere, but how can you actually get started with investing in all this? Read on and find out.You might be thinking about using stocks, ETFs, CFDs, or futures to trade oil and gas. Well, picking the right instrument depends on many factors such as types of businesses, regions, risk profiles, and psychology.In the first episode we focused mainly on non-leveraged securities (stocks and ETFs) linked to the energy industry by showing some stable and/or fast-growing stocks and indexes. The second part is devoted to leveraged instruments such as CFDs and futures contracts.Contracts for Difference (CFDs) & Fraction of StocksA Contract for Difference (CFD) is an OTC (over-the-counter) derivative contract that is replicating the price moves of its underlying asset. Many retail brokers offer those contracts, allowing to trade a wide range of products (incl. forex, indexes, commodities and now stocks). Such OTC contracts were banned in the U.S. due to the fact that trades are not passing through regulated exchanges. In Europe they are allowed, even though a broker that offers them has to comply with a layer of regulations which were put in place by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) a few years ago. These regs were notably set to limit the leverage (as some brokers were previously offering up to 1:200 or 1:500 leverages), consequently increasing the margin requirements, and – this is, in my opinion, something that turned out to be their main advantage – to offer guaranteed stops!Indeed, those “guaranteed stops” switch the execution risk into the broker’s side. Since the execution of such stops is guaranteed at the set price, you don’t worry too much about any slippage... Another advantage of trading CFDs is that you can decide which fraction of your capital you want to allocate to your trade since those are non-standardized contracts. Therefore, if you are a beginner, you can trade mini (0.1) or even smaller micro-contracts (0.01). This specificity allowed many brokers to offer their retail clients the option to invest in a fraction of stocks. So, let’s say you’ve got a $5000 portfolio, and you want to buy an Amazon share that is currently trading at $3300.Thus, if you bought one full stock at that price, then it would mean that 2/3rd (66%) of your portfolio would be exposed to Amazon’s stock price fluctuations, and you wouldn’t have the possibility to get a good diversification ratio. But if you were able to buy a custom-made fraction of that share, then you could potentially decide that you just want to invest in 1/6th of that Amazon stock. By doing so, you would only have $550 of your portfolio exposed to Amazon’s stock price fluctuations, which is an 11% risk in equity instead of 66%! If you want to learn more about those contracts, you will find a lot of information on the Web… Since we are not affiliated with any broker, we won’t suggest any of them, as this would present an obvious conflict of interests. So, please do your own research prior to investing or trading.Futures ContractsFutures contracts are standardized (centralized) derivative contracts allowing traders to obtain fairly good liquidity when they place trades through regulated exchanges. Furthermore, they can trade with certain leverage, which implies some margin requirements. Given the fact that margin requirements which allow to trade full futures contracts may be a barrier to retail traders, the main exchanges have created new products to decrease their margin requirements, allowing traders to get smaller exposure and better size their position. This helps hedgers get a more accurate hedge when they cover their physical trades, notably with the use of currency E-Mini/E-Micro futures contracts to cover the exchange risk.So, it goes without saying that futures attract more and more players to take part in the markets.Regarding the energy sector in particular, at Sunshine Profits we set our focus on the main energy futures contracts, like West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil (CL) and Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG), but occasionally we may also look at the Brent Crude Oil (B) and the petroleum refined products such as Reformulated Blend-stock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Gasoline (RB), Heating Oil (HO), Low Sulphur Gasoil (G), Carbon Emissions, etc.If you want to get some exposure to energies with less leverage, we are going to provide you with some ETF trackers which are highly correlated in the table below, with pros & cons:Energy Futures productsEnergy ETFs productsWTI Crude Oil Futures:CL (Exchange: CME Group)Higher liquidityNo management feesHigher leverage24-hour accessCross-marginingTighter correlation to the physical marketCrude Oil ETFs:USO/UCO/DBO/USL/SCO/OILK/OILLower liquidityLow management feeLow leverage and less riskEasy access to the marketLess maintenance (no forward-rolling)Read more: CME Group – ETF DatabaseBrent Crude Oil Futures:B (Exchange: ICE)Brent Crude Oil ETF:BNORead more: ETF DatabaseNatural Gas Futures:NG (Exchange: CME Group)Natural Gas ETFs:UNG/KOLD/BOIL/UNL/GAZRead more: ETF DatabaseRBOB Gasoline Futures:RB (Exchange: CME Group)Gasoline ETF:UGARead more: ETF DatabaseCarbon Emissions Futures:CC (CME Group)/EUA (ICE)Carbon Allowances ETF:KRBN/GRNRead more: ETF DatabaseEthanol Futures:CU (CME Group)Biofuel ETF:FUERead more: ETF DatabaseBroad Energy Futures:N/ABroad Energy ETFs:DBE/RJN/JJERead more: ETF DatabaseIn conclusion, in this series, we explored not only all the different ways to trade Oil and Gas but also a broader range of products that allow to take advantage of the energy commodity price moves depending on the risk you want to take when trading instruments with bigger or smaller leverage.In future articles, we might focus on the existing correlations between the above-mentioned futures contracts and some of their ETF equivalents, as well as study the price relationship between them.The vehicles I listed are definitely worth looking at. However, I also do the hard work and give you signals and ideas on entry and exit points in some of those instruments. That’s my job, that’s what I do best, and it’s that knowledge that makes the difference. It’s all found in the premium version. Benefit today and sign up to get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP In Bearish Reversal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.09.2021 09:04
GBPUSD turns bearishThe sterling struggles to stabilize as the UK braces for a fuel supply shock.After three months of sideways action, the break below the daily support at 1.3600 could be the confirmation that the pound has sunk into a downtrend.Strong momentum suggests that those who bought the dips had to bail out. 1.3300 is the next target.A deeply oversold RSI would cause a limited rebound when short-term sellers take profit. 1.3550 is likely to cap the bounce with bears waiting to sell into strength.NAS 100 tests crucial supportThe Nasdaq 100 tumbles as surging bond yields weigh on growth stocks.The retest of the demand zone around 14750 from the daily chart has put the bulls under pressure. The break below 14850 has invalidated last week’s rebound, raising the odds for another round of sell-off.The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has offered some temporary respite. However, unless buyers can lift 15220, a rebound would be an opportunity to sell. Below the said critical floor, the index could be vulnerable to a plunge towards 14500.USOIL seeks supportWTI crude dipped after the EIA reported an increase in US inventories.The rally has met stiff selling pressure near July’s high (77.00). The RSI’s bearish divergence signaled a halt in the upward momentum.Then a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has pushed the price below the first support at 75.20. A bearish MA cross also points to a U-turn.A pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. The resistance-turned-support at 73.00 would be a key level to keep the sentiment unscathed.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Inflation Waking Up Bonds

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.09.2021 15:52
S&P 500 bulls didn‘t make much progress even though the credit markets initially favored the daily rebound to stick. Bouncing between the daily highs and lows, the 500-strong index gave up a few moderately good opportunities to take on 4,390 again. VIX understandably calmed down on the day, but doesn‘t give impression of yielding too much to the downside – on the contrary, it seems to be on a general uptrend since early Jul. Volatility is returning, and that‘s characteristic of the unfolding correction.How far lower would it reach? The 4,340 followed by 4,300 and lower to mid 4,250 are the key supports. The bulls haven‘t (and face quite many headwinds from related markets, including the dollar) stepped in to close Tuesday‘s gap, which would be a game changer. For now, we‘re in a trading range where the bears have the advantage. The stock market bull hasn‘t topped, we‘re merely in an unpleasant correction, of which the daily upswing in utilities or consumer staples is a testament.Yields and the dollar are taking turns at pressuring inflation plays, and precious metals are feeling the heat especially, ignoring the debt ceiling being still unresolved. Treasury yields are returning to more reasonable levels in order to reflect the Fed‘s dillydallying:(…) Bonds are signalling that the Fed‘s image of inflation fighter (right or wrong, have your pick) is losing the benefit of the doubt it was given with the Jun FOMC – bond yields have abruptly ended their descent and subsequent trading range. This spells not only inflation (the risk of Fed‘s policy mistake – warnings it would take longer with us than originally anticipated coupled with the professed faith it would just naturally subside all by itself), but smacks of stagflation.The slowly but surely acknowledged inflation surprise will come back to bite the central bank as inflation expectations are finally surging again, reflecting the cost-push inflation (hello commodities superbull), job market challenges and increasingly strained supply chains characterized by order cuts, delays, shortages and general issues in getting merchandise where it‘s awaited (hello port congestion, docking plus trucking staff shortages and full container ships anchored and awaiting unloading). And I‘m not even talking record drought through the West Coast stretching into Rockies and Midwest, or China electricity rationing. Precious metals seem to be the most undervalued asset class these weeks really.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 paused for a day, and the bulls wasted a few chances to move higher.Credit MarketsCredit markets opened on a strong note (HYG did), but gave up the advantage – lower values still seem a question of (relatively short) time.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals remain under pressure, and silver was hammered by the daily upswing in the dollar. Gold volume didn‘t correspondingly jump higher, indicating that the selling pressure taking gold to silver ratio to 80, is a tad overdone. As stated days ago, look to copper to show signs of life first – outperformance of CRB Index would be a first welcome sign.Crude OilCrude oil consolidation continues, and the volume behind last two days, shows healthy accumulation.CopperCopper couldn‘t keep the unfolding flag intact – the hesitation goes on, and the red metal is increasingly trading in the rather undervalued end of its spectrum. Overall, it remains range bound for now.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum bulls are on the move, and the $40K in BTC held up – the daily indicator posture is improving, and we can look for the upswing to continue – remarkable in the face of rising dollar, which is in my view closer to a top than generally appreciated.SummaryStocks aren‘t out of the woods yet, and the yields are putting pressure on tech. Commodities are largely ignoring the taper timing and pace speculation, which can‘t be said about precious metals reacting once to the dollar, then to yields – but not to rising inflation, inflation expectations, or deeply negative real rates.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.09.2021 15:59
At a panel discussion, Fed Chair finally admitted that inflation could be more (!) long-lasting than expected. What does it mean? Hawks. Lots of them.CapitulationWith Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally having his ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment on Sep. 29, the central bank chief’s skittish words helped light a fire under the USD Index. For context, I’ve been warning for months that Powell remains materially behind the inflation curve. And with his indecisive speech upending the Fed’s confidence game, the gambit is showing signs of unraveling.Speaking at an ECB panel discussion on Sep. 29, he said:“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end. It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime or how long they last.”For context, first it was “base effects,” then it was “transitory” and now “it’s very difficult to say.”He continued:“It’s also frustrating to see the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better – in fact, at the margins apparently getting a little bit worse. We see that continuing into next year probably, and holding up inflation longer than we had thought.”What’s more, Powell actually admitted that the Fed is facing a conundrum that it hasn’t dealt with “for a very long time.”“Managing through that process over the next couple of years is… going to be very challenging because we have this hypothesis that inflation is going to be transitory. We think that’s right. But we are concerned about underlying inflation expectations remaining stable, as they have so far.”Wow. If that’s not capitulation, I don’t know what is.For context, I wrote on Sep. 24:I’ve warned on several occasions that the only way for the Fed to control inflation is to increase the value of the U.S. dollar and decrease the value of commodities. However, with commodities’ fervor accelerating on Sep. 23 – a day when the USD Index declined – the price action should concern Chairman Jerome Powell. As a result, FOMC participants’ 2022 inflation forecast is likely wishful thinking and they may find that a faster liquidity drain (which is bullish for the U.S. dollar) is their only option to control the pricing pressures.Speaking of which, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) has rallied by ~5% for the month of September. For context, the S&P GSCI contains 24 commodities from all sectors: six energy products, five industrial metals, eight agricultural products, three livestock products and two precious metals. However, energy accounts for roughly 54% of the index’s movement.Please see below:Source: S&P GlobalAs well, if you analyze the graphic below, you can see the impact that rising energy prices had on the S&P GSCI’s performance in September (MTD returns as of Sep. 27).To that point, with Brent and WTI surging recently and the latter on track for six straight weeks of weekly gains, Goldman Sachs has upped its year-end Brent target to $90 a barrel. Calling it the “revenge” of the old economy, Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, said that “poor returns saw capital redirected away from the old economy to the new economy. It’s not unique to Europe, it’s not unique to energy, it’s a broad-based old-economy problem.”Thus, in his view, commodity prices need to be “much higher to get returns sufficient to start attracting capital. People wanted a quick return, and now you’re paying the price for it.”Please see below:Supporting the thesis, Bank of America commodities strategist Francisco Blanch told Bloomberg on Sep. 28 that Brent could hit $100 a barrel in 2022 and that a “cold winter” could actually pull forward the forecast.He said:“First, there is plenty of pent up mobility demand after an 18 month lockdown. Second, mass transit will lag, boosting private car usage for a prolonged period of time. Third, pre-pandemic studies show more remote work could result in more miles driven, as work-from-home turns into work-from-car. On the supply side, we expect government policy pressure in the U.S. and around the world to curb cap-ex over coming quarters to meet Paris goals. Secondly, investors have become more vocal against energy sector spending for both financial and ESG reasons. Third, judicial pressures are rising to limit carbon dioxide emissions. In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022.”Now, the important point isn’t whether or not Currie and Blanch are correct. The important point is that higher oil prices are mutually exclusive to Powell’s 2% inflation goal. For example, the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) – which is a reliable indicator of the next month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) – recorded its highest monthly year-over-year (YoY) percentage increase in August since 1974. What’s more, the sky-high reading occurred with the S&P GSCI declining by ~2% in August (that’s why monitoring surging container rates is so important). However, as mentioned, the S&P GSCI has already risen by ~5% in September and container rates have also made new highs. As a result, Powell’s hawkish shift isn’t nearly hawkish enough to solve his inflationary dilemma.Inflation Isn’t Going AnywhereAs further evidence, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Sep. 28. And while the headline index turned negative as output slumped, pricing pressures remained materially elevated.Please see below:Source: Richmond FedLikewise, the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey on Sep. 27. The report revealed:“Prices and wages continued to increase strongly in September. The price indexes climbed further, with the raw materials prices index at 80.4 and the finished goods prices index at 44.0, an all-time high. The wages and benefits index held steady at a highly elevated reading of 42.7.”For a visual of the overall index, please see below:Furthermore, the Dallas Fed also released its Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and its Texas Retail Outlook Survey on Sep. 28. And though the U.S. service sector has suffered the brunt of the Delta variant’s wrath, pricing pressures remained. The report revealed:“Wage pressures eased in September, though remained at historically high levels, while price pressures remained highly elevated. The wages and benefits index declined from 32.6 to 26.9. The selling prices index was largely unchanged at 20.2, with nearly a quarter of firms reporting increased prices compared with August, while the input prices index inched up one point to 42.9.”More importantly, though, the Texas Retail Outlook Survey revealed:“Retail price pressures surged once again in September after some signs of moderation in August, while wage pressures held steady. The selling prices index surged nearly 11 points to 50.4 – with 58 percent of retailers increasing prices compared with August – while the input prices index increased from 41.3 to 50.1. The wages and benefits index was flat at 24.6.”For a visual of the overall index, please see below:And as the drama unfolds and Powell’s inflationary conundrum intensifies, his hawkish rhetoric on Sep. 29 helped sink the EUR/USD. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index. And with the currency pair collapsing below 1.1600 on Sep. 29 and closing below key 2020 support, the European dam could be about to break.Please see below:Reverse Repos Hit Another All-Time High!Also bullish for the U.S. dollar, with Powell’s liquidity circus still on full display, there is too much money floating around with too little use. And upping the ante on what I’ve been highlighting for months, after 80 counterparties drained nearly $1.416 trillion out of the U.S. financial system on Sep. 29, the Fed’s daily reverse repurchase agreements hit another all-time high.Please see below:Source: New York FedTo explain, a reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the Fed in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the Fed at an alarming rate. I’ve been warning for months that the activity is the fundamental equivalent of a taper due to the lower supply of U.S. dollars (which is bullish for the USD Index). Thus, while we await a formal announcement from the Fed, the U.S. dollar’s fundamental foundation remains robust.The bottom line? Powell’s only hope to curb inflation is to strengthen the U.S. dollar and weaken commodity (including gold and silver) prices. For context, major futures contracts are priced in U.S. dollars. And when the dollar rallies, it’s more expensive for foreign buyers (in their currency) to purchase the underlying commodities. As a result, a stronger U.S. dollar often stifles demand. And with the current supply/demand dynamics favoring higher commodity prices, Powell will have to work his magic — strengthen the dollar and reduce demand — if he wants his inflation problem to subside.In conclusion, gold, silver (ouch) and mining stocks sunk like stones on Sep. 29. And with the USD Index cutting through 94 like a knife through butter, new 2021 lows in the EUR/USD were accompanied by new 2021 highs in the USD Index. Moreover, with the momentum poised to continue, the PMs’ medium-term outlooks remain quite somber. As a result, further weakness will likely materialize before brighter days emerge (probably) near the end of the year.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
We’re Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care

We’re Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.09.2021 16:07
Another fiscal year, another governmental fight to raise the debt limit. A failure spells a crisis, but gold turns a blind eye and continues its fall.So, America has a new tradition! The government shutdown is coming. A new fiscal year starts tomorrow, and if Congress fails to agree on a budget by the end of today, the government will shut down.What does it mean for the US economy? According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the failure to lift the debt ceiling could be a catastrophe:If the debt ceiling is not raised, there would be a financial crisis, a calamity. It would undermine confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency (…) It would be a wound of enormous proportions (…) It is imperative that Congress swiftly addresses the debt limit. If it does not, America would default for the first time in history. The full faith and credit of the United States would be impaired, and our country would likely face a financial crisis and economic recession.She also clarified in a separate letter sent to Congress that the Treasury could run out of money by October 18, 2021:We now estimate that Treasury is likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by October 18.  At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly.  It is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date.Her rhetoric was rather gloomy. As a result, the risk aversion softened, while stock prices dropped. So, gold prices had to increase, right? Well, not exactly. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal continued its downward trend that accelerated in September, partially caused by more hawkish expectations for the tapering timeline and future path of the federal funds rate.So, what is happening in the gold market? I would point out three crucial factors right now. First, the US dollar has appreciated recently. Yes, despite worries about the debt ceiling, the greenback has strengthened. It shows that there is simply no alternative. Another issue is that people have seen this movie before, and they know how it ends. At some point, Congress will pass a new debt limit and return to its spending spree.Second, the bond yields have increased. For example, the nominal yields on 10-year Treasuries jumped from about 1.3% last week to almost 1.5% on Monday (September 27, 2021), as the chart below shows. The recent dot-plot revealed that the FOMC members want to raise the federal funds rate earlier than previously thought, which has been transmitted into the yield curve, creating downward pressure on gold. Higher interest rates imply higher opportunity costs of holding bullion.Third, the market sentiment still seems to be negative toward gold. It’s partially justified by the macroeconomic environment ⁠— namely, the rapid recovery from the pandemic recession. As the global economy is improving, the central banks are about to tighten their monetary policy.Implications for GoldWhat does it all imply for the gold market? Well, the environment of strengthening dollar and rising bond yields is negative for the yellow metal. Higher interests make bonds more attractive relative to gold. The worries about the debt ceiling will likely be short-lived and won’t provide gold with a needed lifeline. The current downward trend in gold shows that the market simply doesn’t care about the government shutdown. The only hope is an inflationary crisis, but (so far) worries about inflation have been entailing higher interest rates rather than strong demand for gold as an inflation hedge.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Now That US Stocks Pushed Oil Higher, Is It Correction Time?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.09.2021 22:55
Oil prices had a choppy day on Wednesday, rebounding after the U.S. crude stocks report before retreating late in the session. Will we see a new dip?Fundamental AnalysisWith US stocks increasing – whereas a decrease was expected – exchanges were marked by a continuation of profit-taking, which started the day before, prior to the publication of the weekly report of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories: (Source: Investing.com)During the week ending on Sep. 24, crude inventories rose 4.6 million barrels (Mb), even though analysts had forecast another decline. However, while this surprising rise could have been likely to put pressure on prices, the price of black gold rose after this publication.It was the first increase after a streak of seven straight declines. Nevertheless, it was not until the end of the session for the oil market to integrate this increase in stocks.Is the Petroleum Crisis Over in the UK?The British government has just said that the crisis caused by fears of fuel shortages is now over, even though many fuel stations remain closed in major cities across the United Kingdom.https://twitter.com/NoContextHumour/status/1443468835554725889?s=19New Deal of Washington and TehranOn the UN Security Council agenda, we might see some progress happening towards the end of the year, as Joe Biden’s administration – weakened by the Afghanistan debacle and the Maricopa County (Arizona) Election Audit presented before the Senate last Friday, which lets new suspicions of irregularities in the US election to re-emerge – will now probably focus on making successful negotiations for the return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. Figure 1 – WTI Crude Oil (CLX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale)In brief, after a surge in crude oil prices at the beginning of the week, we could see some pullback happening. In the future, such retracements could be driven by new supplies if, for example, the operations in the Gulf of Mexico were returning to their full capacity, crude oil inventories kept building up, or even the negotiations with Iran were improving.Imagine a point where new talks lead to presenting a realistic plan aiming at lifting sanctions on Tehran, which would have an effect on reopening the Iranian oil tap... So many elements to keep an eye on in the forthcoming months! However, nobody said it’s impossible to navigate through such a complex market. That’s what I do, and that’s what I do best – I keep an eye on everything energy-related happening in the world. Detailed positions for oil/natural gas trading can be found in my premium Oil Trading Alerts.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

S&P 500 Fell To Previous Low: When in Doubt Get Out!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.10.2021 15:54
The S&P 500 index fell very close to its recent local low yesterday. Will the market break below the 4,300 level? It may fluctuate for some time.The S&P 500 index retraced almost all of its recent advance yesterday, as it extended its short-term downtrend. The index fell 1.2% vs. its Wednesday’s closing price and it got back closer to the 4,300 price level. In the previous week, the market fell the lowest since July 20, as it reached the local low of 4,305.91. The S&P 500 was 239.9 points or 5.28% below the September 2 record high of 4,545.85. And yesterday’s daily low was at 4,306.24. This morning the market is expected to open 0.3-0.4% higher and we may see a short-term consolidation.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index is now at 4,300, marked by the mentioned local low. The next support level is at around 4,250. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,445-4,455, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 continues to trade below its month-long downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):S&P 500 Below Medium-Term Upward Trend LineThe S&P 500 index is trading below its almost year-long upward trend line. The nearest important medium-term support level is at 4,200-4,300, as we can see on the weekly chart:Dow Jones Is Also Closer to the Previous Local lowsLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. In early September the blue-chip index broke below a two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern. Last week it has bounced from the 33,600 price level up to around 35,000. But since Monday it has been declining towards the local low again, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Remains at Support LevelApple stock weighs around 6.1% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. Since early September it has been declining from the record high. Recently the stock sold off to the previous local lows along $142 price level. It is acting as a support level, so it is still a “make or break” situation.ConclusionSince last Tuesday we’ve witnessed a short-covering rally fueled by the Wednesday’s FOMC Monetary Policy release. But it was just an upward correction within a downtrend and the S&P 500 index’ mid-September short-term consolidation acted as a short-term resistance level. The market fell close to its recent local low. We may see a short-term consolidation at that support level.There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. However, the risk/reward perspective seems less favorable right now and no positions are currently justified.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 got back to its previous low yesterday and it may act as a short-term support level.Our speculative short position has been close right before the opening of today’s cash market’s trading session.However, we are still expecting more downward pressure and a correction to 4,200-4,250 level.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.10.2021 15:55
With earnings season beginning in October, a profound correction of the S&P 500 could add fuel to the fire of the already well-supported U.S. dollar.While the USD Index was largely flat on Sep. 30, the EUR/USD closed at a new 2021 low. And because the currency pair accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, its performance is material. Moreover, while I’ve been warning for months that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the EUR/USD still hasn’t priced in the magnitude of the divergence.Please see below:To explain, the chart on the right is where you should focus your attention: the purple bars above depict the change in investors’ hawkish central bank bets since Sep. 20, while the pink diamonds above depict the performance of various currencies during that same timeframe. If you analyze the column labeled “USD,” you can see that the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has ramped up bets on further tightening. However, if you analyze the pink diamond near the bottom of the purple bar, you can see that the U.S. dollar’s performance hasn’t matched the fervor. Conversely, if you analyze the column labeled “EUR,” you can see that investors’ expectations of lower-for-longer Eurozone interest rates haven’t budged, and the euro has held up quite well. For context, the GBP (11.9% of the USD Index’s movement) and the CAD (9.1% of the USD Index’s movement) have largely offset one another. With the former not pricing in any of investors’ hawkish bets and the latter pricing in nearly all of investors’ hawkish bets, the divergence is largely a wash. However, with the U.S. dollar still underpriced and few upside catalysts available for the euro, more EUR/USD downside should commence over the medium term.Supporting that argument, Jeremy Stretch, Head of G10 FX Strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, told clients that “the ECB is intent upon maintaining favorable financing conditions to perpetuate the recovery narrative. As a consequence, we expect the central bank to consider PEPP transitioning into the Asset Purchase Programme [APP].” And with that, “slower growth into 2023 will help limit medium-term price gains. Although headline HICP risks testing 13-year highs, the ECB’s adjusted inflation remit will allow the bank to look through short-term price spikes, especially as core prices are expected to remain relatively well-contained. Alongside fiscal policy developments, that will promote a lower-for-longer trajectory for interest rates, and as a result, a weaker EUR in 2022.”And advocating for just that, ECB Governing Council Member Mario Centeno told CNBC on Sep. 27 that “we were fooled by some news on inflation in the past, which prompted us to act in the wrong way, so we don’t want, definitely, to commit the same sort of errors this time.... We need to guarantee favorable financing conditions to all sectors in our economy as we go out of [the] crisis, and we are not yet there, we are not yet out of the woods.”And how does all of this impact Centeno’s taper timeline?Source: CNBCIn addition, while the ECB’s PEPP program should conclude at the end of March 2022, its APP program isn’t going anywhere. And when the central bank announced its PEPP “recalibration” on Sep. 9, I warned that the ECB’s liquidity spigot should remain on full blast much longer than the Fed’s.I wrote:While the deceleration may seem like a monumental shift, the move is much more semblance than substance: net APP purchases will still be reinvested “for an extended period of time past the date when [the ECB] starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.”Likewise, with many ECB officials aiming to avoid a “cliff effect” when the PEPP program unwinds, Reuters reported that the central bank could expand its APP program to offset the damage. The bottom line? Tapering in Europe is nothing like tapering in the U.S.Please see below: Source: ReutersReverse Repos Strike AgainAlso supporting a stronger U.S. dollar, the Fed’s waterfall of QE is running out of reservoirs. And after 92 counterparties drained nearly $1.605 trillion out of the U.S. financial system on Sep. 30, the Fed’s daily reverse repurchase agreements hit another all-time high.Please see below:Source: New York FedTo explain, a reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the Fed in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the Fed at an alarming rate. And while I’ve been warning for months that the activity is the fundamental equivalent of a taper – due to the lower supply of U.S. dollars (which is bullish for the USD Index) – as we await a formal announcement from the Fed, the U.S. dollar’s fundamental foundation remains robust.Furthermore, with the Fed’s daily reverse repos averaging $642 billion in June, $848 billion in July, $1.053 trillion in August, and $1.211 trillion in September, the accelerated liquidity drain further supports a stronger U.S. dollar.Stock Market On Its Last Legs?What’s more, with the safe-haven bid also an important piece of the USD Index’s puzzle, the stock market’s recent struggles still haven’t manifested into a full-blown correction. However, with seasonal factors signaling more weakness ahead, a profound drawdown of the S&P 500 could accelerate the pace of the USD Index’s uprising.Please see below:To explain, the blue and green bars above track the average monthly performance of the S&P 500 after a new U.S. President takes office. If you analyze the columns labeled “Sep” and “Oct,” you can see that the end of summer often elicits the worst monthly performances. And while the S&P 500 capped off September with a 1.19% decline, the weakness should continue in October.As evidence, Bed Bath & Beyond’s stock plunged by more than 22% on Sep. 30. And with supply chain disruptions and weak demand clashing with U.S. policy uncertainty, optimism is on shaky ground. For example, the retailer’s second-quarter adjusted EPS came in at $0.04 vs. $0.52 expected, while revenue came in at $1.99 billion vs. $2.06 billion expected. Moreover, the company slashed its third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance to between flat and $0.05, with revenue ranging from $1.96 billion to $2 billion. Analysts were expecting figures of $0.28 and $2.02 billion respectively.And while I’ve highlighted the issue on several occasions, CFO Gustavo Arnal lamented the fervor of surging freight costs. He said during the company’s Q2 earnings call:“What we're seeing now in the second quarter is, look, significant freight cost increases well above what we had anticipated. We had anticipated 240 basis points. We got 360 basis points. We're still projecting some sequential increase in freight costs as we go from Q2 to Q3.”Furthermore, CEO Mark Tritton said that the Delta variant has also “created a challenging and volatile environment:”“In August, the final and largest sales month of Q2, traffic unexpectedly slowed, and, therefore, sales did not materialize as we had anticipated. External disruptive forces such as the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and growing Delta fears created a challenging and volatile environment. This is particularly evident in large southern states, such as Florida and Texas, as well as California, which, in aggregate, represent approximately 30% of our total sales. From July to August, traffic trends evolved in this state and worsened by double-digit percentages.”As a result:“As the quarter progressed, particularly in August, conditions worsened relative to our thoughtful preparations. The speed of industry inflation and lead time pressures outpaced our plans to offset these headwinds, and as a result, we did not pivot fast enough, especially on price and margin recovery.”The bottom line? With the U.S. dollar already supported by a strong technical and fundamental foundation, a profound correction of the S&P 500 could be the next spark that lights the bullish fire. And with earnings season beginning in early/mid-October, more disappointments like what we witnessed with Bed Bath & Beyond could encourage the next correction. More importantly, though, given the PMs’ strong negative correlations with the U.S. dollar, a sharp move higher in the greenback could coincide with a sharp move lower in the PMs.In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Sep. 30, but the bearish thesis remains unchanged: the USD Index is poised for an upward re-rating and U.S. Treasury yields still have the medium-term wind at their backs. Moreover, with the general stock market showing signs of stress, a real bout of panic could also uplift the USD Index and upend the PMs. As a result, lower precious metals prices should materialize over the next few months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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Sharp Market Turns Not To Miss

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.10.2021 15:58
S&P 500 steeply declined, yet the credit markets offered a glimmer of hope to suck in the bulls – and thus far, the premarket bounce is sticking. The fact that buying the dip didn‘t work in the 4,350s area, needs some digesting today – the overnight stampede didn‘t develop. The sectoral view though doesn‘t allow to declare the bottom to be in just yet. The technical bounce would be probably led by value, with tech lagging behind regardless of the anticipated daily stabilization / retreat in yields.Neither the VIX has calmed down considerably yet. The bulls must be perplexed why buying the dip hasn‘t worked this time around (and before). The sizable open short profits can keep growing. As stated yesterday:(…) VIX understandably calmed down [Wednesday], but doesn‘t give impression of yielding too much to the downside – on the contrary, it seems to be on a general uptrend since early Jul. Volatility is returning, and that‘s characteristic of the unfolding correction.How far lower would it reach? The 4,340 followed by 4,300 and lower to mid 4,250 are the key supports. The bulls haven‘t (and face quite many headwinds from related markets, including the dollar) stepped in to close Tuesday‘s gap, which would be a game changer. For now, we‘re in a trading range where the bears have the advantage. The stock market bull hasn‘t topped, we‘re merely in an unpleasant correction, of which the daily upswing in utilities or consumer staples is a testament.The key fundamental events Thursday were Powell acknowledging that pesky inflation and China ordering its state-owned enterprises to secure oil supplies for the coming winter at any cost. The former finally lit the fuse behind precious metals (did you see how profoundly silver recovered from that $8bn futures contract drop representing 40% of worldwide mining output before Powell spoke on Wednesday?), the latter keeps crude oil prices underpinned.That‘s why I wasn‘t spooked by the copper plunge yesterday (really out of tune with the commodities sentiment and CRB Index performance) – the commodities superbull is merely getting started. Bringing up the key inflation thoughts of yesterday:(…) The slowly but surely acknowledged inflation surprise will come back to bite the central bank as inflation expectations are finally surging again, reflecting the cost-push inflation (hello commodities superbull), job market challenges and increasingly strained supply chains characterized by order cuts, delays, shortages and general issues in getting merchandise where it‘s awaited (hello port congestion, docking plus trucking staff shortages and full container ships anchored and awaiting unloading). And I‘m not even talking record drought through the West Coast stretching into Rockies and Midwest, or China electricity rationing. Precious metals seem to be the most undervalued asset class these weeks really.Once we look back at autumn 2021 a few short years down the road, we would all say that precious metals have been outrageously undervalued indeed. And have you seen the great crypto breakout that‘s making bulls such as myself very happy... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 pause is very clearly over, and the bears keep having the upper hand.Credit MarketsCredit markets let the bulls have second thoughts, and the high HYG volume indicates a brief pause in the stock market selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals sprang to life – first swallow of a turnaround. The bottom looks to be in, and would be confirmed by silver increasing in price faster than gold in order to bring the gold to silver ratio back down from its 80 local top. Reinforcing that move would be copper catching up and outperforming the CRB Index too.Crude OilCrude oil consolidation continues, and every dip is being bought. Upswing continuation appears a question of time only.CopperCopper downswing could have attracted higher volume but that doesn‘t detract from a vigorous response of the bulls coming most likely next. The pattern of lower highs is likely to be broken to the upside the cryptos way (discussed next), in due time.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum bulls confirmed they were on the move, and the early Sep highs are next in their sights. The chart is very bullish, and the daily indicators have plenty of room to go before reaching overbought levels.SummaryStocks aren‘t out of the woods yet, but the bears are likely to take a daily pause today. Inflation is coming back into focus, today‘s core PCE price index confirms it isn‘t going away any time soon, and Treasury yield spreads (10-year over 2-year) are coming back from the false breakdown earlier in Sep, which would feed into the hunger for commodities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.10.2021 17:00
What’s happening in the natural gas markets? Prices are surging like crazy. The answer may be complex, but I’m here to provide it.Market AnalysisToday, we expect the market to be accumulating since the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 88 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas into storage for the week ending on Sept. 24. This could indeed be explained by warmer temperatures and entering the month of October.New Futures Market in TurkeyFor those interested in watching foreign energy markets, please note that today marks the start of the Turkish Natural Gas Futures Market (NFM), a new milestone in the Nat-Gas trade.(Source: Turkey Energy Outlook)European GasGas prices are still fuelled by supply concerns in Europe, where inventories are recording multi-year lows. FYI, we also talked about this in a previous edition of Oil Trading Alerts.(Source: EnergyScan)The sudden spike in Asia JKM November 2021 prices could be explained by the fact that European buyers are forced to keep competing aggressively with their Asian counterparts to attract LNG cargoes (Liquefied Natural Gas Transportation).Figure 1 – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGX21) Futures (November contract, daily, logarithmic scale)Figure 2 – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGV21) Futures (October contract, weekly chart, logarithmic scale)In brief, today we provided you with some recent updates regarding the market developments for various natural gas markets in order to get a wider view of what’s happening in them. Nobody said it’s impossible to navigate through them. That’s what I do best – I keep an eye on everything energy-related happening in the world. Detailed positions for oil/natural gas trading can be found in my premium Oil Trading Alerts.Have a nice weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Have We Bought a Golden Ticket to the 1970s?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.10.2021 17:31
It turned out that time travel is possible, after all. All you need is reckless monetary policy and, boom, you are back in the 1970s. Gold seems to like such voyages!Have you ever dreamed about time travel? Now it’s totally possible, courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Thanks to its dovish monetary policy, we are going back to the 1970s. Just as fifty years ago, the US central bank is letting inflation rise, claiming that the employment goal is much more important and that the Philips Curve has flattened. In the 1970s, they thought similarly, but it turned out that you can overheat the economy, after all! And just as Arthur Burns half a century ago, Jerome Powell believes that inflation is caused only by a few particular categories, and it will prove to be transitory.I’ve been pointing out these disturbing parallels for months. Now, as Kenneth Rogoff, Professor at Harvard University, noted, with the US humiliating exit from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul, the similarities between the 1970s and the 2020s are growing. Other dangerous resemblances are relative fast growth in the money supply (see the chart below), fiscal deficits, and the presence of supply-side shocks (but instead of oil shocks we suffer from semiconductor shock and disruptions in other supply chains).Rogoff also points out some important differences, namely, the independent central bank readiness to hike the federal funds rate if inflation gets out of control, and much lower interest rates that provide the Treasury with room for its lax spending.There is a grain of truth in Rogoff’s claims. The central bank’s independence is much more strongly established, and Powell is a far cry from Burns who was submissive to President Nixon. However, please note that both private and public debts are much higher than fifty years ago. This mammoth pile of debt makes interest rate hikes much more politically painful. The high indebtedness is already a reason why the Fed maintains a dovish stance and will normalize its monetary policy at very a gradual pace.Remember the Fed’s recent attempts to roll back quantitative easing and bring interest rates back to more normal levels? The economic slowdown and the repo crisis forced the Fed to cut the federal funds rate again and return to the asset purchases. It was in 2019, much before the pandemic started. So, never underestimate the power of the debt trap!What does it all mean for gold? Well, if we are really going into the 1970s, gold could be one of the biggest winners. The yellow metal enjoyed a bull market then, so a similar positive scenario could replay now.Although, fifty years ago the US economy entered stagflation, i.e., a period of high inflation and economic stagnation. The current situation is clearly not so bad — inflation is lower than in the 1970s, while the GDP growth is positive. However, the recent slowdown in economic growth, despite massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, suggests that a mini-stagflation may be underway. The spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus hampers the economic growth, and both monetary and fiscal policies remain loose, contributing to the upward price pressure.If the Fed’s story about transitory inflation is wrong, it will need to tighten its policy more decisively than expected. An abrupt tightening cycle could be negative for gold prices, as the yellow metal prefers an environment of low bond yields. However, aggressive steps to combat inflation could also cause a plunge in the prices of risky assets or even a financial crisis. So, if the Fed stays long behind the curve, gold should ultimately benefit – either from accelerating inflation or from the Fed’s harsh tightening triggering a sovereign debt crisis or an economic crisis (as a reminder, Paul Volcker contained inflation, but the US economy entered into a recession).Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Rally Slows Down - 04.10.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.10.2021 08:52
USDCAD awaits breakoutThe Canadian dollar recovered after July’s GDP growth beat expectations.The daily chart still favors the greenback even though the hourly price action is stuck in a narrowing range between 1.2600 and 1.2800. The indecision would end with a breakout that will dictate the direction for the next few days.Multiple tests of the demand zone around 1.2600 suggest solid interest in keeping the uptrend intact. A bullish breakout would cause another attempt at August’s peak (1.2950), whereas a bearish one would lead to a revisit of 1.2500.EURGBP tests demand zoneThe pound swings higher likely due to profit-taking, following a sharp sell-off. The euro’s surge has hit a speed bump at July’s high (0.8660).An overbought RSI and its bearish divergence have prompted short-term buyers to take chips off the table. The support-turned-resistance at 0.8620 capped a rebound.The upside bias is still valid as long as the pair is above 0.8525, the base of the latest rally. The bulls may trigger an extended rally if they can lift 0.8625. Failing that, the price may drop to 0.8485.SPX 500 faces key hurdleThe S&P 500 struggles as concerns over economic slowdown spread. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates that sentiment has turned sour.The fall below 4340 has shattered the hope of a quick rebound. The index is testing last July’s low at 4270. A repeatedly oversold RSI has triggered a buying-the-dips mentality.The early bulls will need to close above 4400 before they could attract momentum buyers’ attention. Otherwise, the bears would be eager to sell into strength.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Waiting For Inflation to Hit

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.10.2021 15:48
S&P 500 didn‘t make it to the overnight lows during the regular session, and almost fully reversed Thursday‘s slide. After an intraday tug of war, the credit markets leaned the bullish way, and VIX looks like it would try to move a little lower next. Coupled with the put/call ratio, that means a slight advantage for the bulls.The daily retreat in yields spurred a strong tech upswing – stronger one than in value. Given that yields are likely to keep rising due to the red hot inflation and in order to force Fed‘s hand on taper, that‘s a watchout for the bulls not to get carried away with Friday‘s upswing.Forget for a moment about the debt ceiling drama or the postponed vote on the $3.5T infrastructure bill. As I wrote on Thursday regarding inflation, commodities and supply chains, add in the question marks over economic growth and job market strength, and you‘ll get the stagflationary picture. Should this theme gather steam, it would lit the fuse under precious metals and commodities – just as it did in the 1970s,, and that‘s why rising interest rates needn‘t be gold‘s death knell, and why silver would rise in price and popularity. Such a time would correspond with a certain malaise in the stock market, to put it mildly. Real assets stand to gain much – and this time, cryptos as a then non-existent asset class, would benefit too. Earliest, I‘m looking for profits in energy, base metals, agrifoods and the other real assets – indeed, the open long oil and copper positions are solidly profitable again.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebound holds more than one day‘s promise, but a fair observation is that the bullish – bearish forces are roughly even early this week.Credit MarketsCredit markets lack the strength of stock market conviction, and look to need a bit more time to confirm. If they don‘t, erasure of Friday‘s bullish uptick comes next – and as the bond guys usually get it right...Gold, Silver and MinersGold consolidated while silver dealt with that daily slide. Gold volume could have been higher really, to lend more credibility to the nascent upswing. Once silver starts outperforming gold, we would know the focus is turning back to inflation consistently – we aren‘t there yet.Crude OilThere is no stopping crude oil, and oil stocks confirm – in spite of the lower volume on Friday, the path of least resistance is higher.CopperCopper recovered from that odd Thursday weakness, yet still continues woefully underperforming the CRB Index. I remain optimistic the red metal would rise next into the mid 4.20s at least.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum confirmed the upswing by not retreating, and the early Sep highs are next in sight. The daily indicators have reached consolidation levels, which means the upswing may take a while to develop.SummaryStock market bears have taken a daily pause, and credit markets point to a tight range entry to the week. Rising yields is no fluke – inflation is coming back into focus, which would be a boon to precious metals and commodities well beyond energy. Cryptos stand to do great, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stocks Bounced, but Bulls Are Not Out of the Woods Yet

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.10.2021 15:54
Stocks bounced from the new local low on Friday. Is this the end of a downward correction or just some consolidation before another leg down?The S&P 500 index slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday, as it reached the local low of 4,288.52 right after the opening. But bulls took over and the market gained 1.15% on a daily basis. It came back above 4,350. This morning the market is expected to open slightly lower and we may see more short-term consolidation.The nearest important support level of the broad stock market index is now at 4,300-4,320, marked by the recent local lows. The next support level is at around 4,250. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,380-4,400. The S&P 500 continues to trade below its month-long downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Dow Jones Didn’t Reach a New LowLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. In early September the blue-chip index broke below a two-month-long rising wedge downward reversal pattern. Last week it got back closer to its mid-September local low. However, unlike the broad stock market’s gauge, it managed to stay above that support level. The nearest important resistance level is at around 34,500, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple is Still at Support LevelApple stock weighs around 6.1% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. Since early September it has been declining from the record high. Recently the stock sold off to the previous local lows and on Friday it sold off to around $139 before going back up. The $142 price level is acting as a support level, so it is still a “make or break” situation.We Closed Our Profitable Short Position on FridayLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. We opened a short position on August 12 at the level of 4,435 and closed it on Friday at the level of 4,315 with a gain of 120 points because the risk/reward perspective seemed less favorable (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionLast week the broad stock market got back to its mid-September local low and the S&P 500 index fell briefly below 4,300 level. Then we’ve witnessed a short-covering rally. Most likely it was just an upward correction within a downtrend. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. However, the risk/reward perspective seems less favorable right now and no positions are currently justified.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 bounced from 4,300 support level on Friday, but for now it looks like a short-term upward correction.Our speculative short position has been closed right before the opening of Friday’s cash market’s trading session.However, we are still expecting more downward pressure and a correction to 4,200-4,250 level.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Miners: What the HUI Index Says About the Medium-Term

Miners: What the HUI Index Says About the Medium-Term

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.10.2021 16:34
Ignoring cycles, trends, and technical patterns is a potential recipe for disaster. The HUI index can tell us a lot about the near future.After the HUI Index sunk to a new 2021 low last week, the index further validated the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern. For context, H&S’ breakdowns have coincided with the largest declines in the HUI Index in recent decades. And while gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal point may stop the bleeding in the very short-term, the HUI Index’s wounds are far from healed. To explain, I’ve been sounding the alarm on the HUI Index since the New Year (the index has declined by more than 29% YTD) and I wrote the following on Sep. 13:The HUI Index plunged by nearly 6% last week, and the reversal of the previous corrective upswing mirrors its behavior from 2013. In addition, with its stochastic oscillator and its RSI (Relative Strength Index) also a spitting image, an ominous re-enactment of 2013 implies significantly lower prices over the medium term.Please see below:Furthermore, while I’ve also been warning about the ominous similarity to 2012-2013, the HUI Index continues to hop into the time machine. To explain, the vertical, dashed lines above demonstrate how the HUI Index is following its 2012-2013 playbook. For example, after a slight buy signal from the stochastic indicator in 2012, the short-term pause was followed by another sharp drawdown. For context, after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff. Thus, the HUI Index is quite likely to decline to its 200-week moving average (or so) before pausing and recording a corrective upswing. That’s close to the 220 level. Thereafter, the index will likely continue its bearish journey and record a final medium-term low some time in December.Furthermore, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. There were several weeks when gold rallied visibly, and the HUI Index actually declined modestly. And now, gold stocks are trading close to their previous 2021 lows, while gold is almost right in the middle between its yearly high and its yearly low.And why is this so important? Well, because the bearish implications of gold stocks’ extreme underperformance still remain intact.Let’s keep in mind that the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008 as well as in 2012 and 2013. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October 2008, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline so profoundly back then, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.Nonetheless, broad head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern. As a reminder, the HUI Index recently completed the same formation.Yes, the HUI Index moved back below the previous lows and the neck level of the formation, which – at face value – means that the formation was invalidated, but we saw a similar “invalidation” in 2000 and in 2013. Afterwards, the decline followed anyway. Consequently, I don’t think that taking the recent move higher at its face value is appropriate. It seems to me that the analogies to the very similar situation from the past are more important.As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months.For even more confirmation, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the GDX ETF closed at a new 2021 low last week and sunk below $30 for the first time since April 2020. For context, I warned of a forthcoming calamity on Sep. 7:I wrote:Large spikes in daily volume are often bearish, not bullish. To explain, three of the last four volume outliers preceded an immediate top (or near) for the GDX ETF, while the one that preceded the late July rally was soon followed by the GDX ETF’s 2020 peak. Thus, when investors go ‘all in,’ material declines often follow. And with that, spike-high volume during the GDX ETF’s upswings often presents us with great shorting opportunities.Moreover, even after the forecast became reality, the GDX ETF’s medium-term outlook remains quite bearish. For example, while gold bounced late last week and recouped its losses, the GDX ETF’s tepid rise further validated the senior miners’ underperformance.As a result, the relative weakness implies lower lows over the next few months.Please see below:As for the GDXJ ETF, I wrote on Sep. 7 that overzealous investors would likely end the week disappointed:With the current move quite similar to the corrective upswing recorded in mid-May, the springtime bounce was also followed by a sharp drawdown. As a result, the GDXJ ETF could be near its precipice, as its 50-day moving average is right ahead. And with the key level now acting as resistance, investors’ rejection on Sep. 3 could indicate that the top is already here.And while the junior miners followed the roadmap to perfection, the GDXJ ETF still elicits material weakness. As a result, the GDXJ ETF remains poised to reach the ~$35 level over the medium term.Please see below:Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the downtrend remains intact. And with the ratio reversing lower after reaching its declining resistance line, the medium-term implications remain unchanged. On top of that, if a stock-market swoon enters the equation, the ratio’s drawdown could be fast and furious (like what happened during the March 2020 crash).To explain, when the ratio’s RSI jumped above 50 three times in 2021, it coincided with short-term peaks in gold. Second, the trend in the ratio this year has been clearly down, and there’s no sign of a reversal, especially when you consider that the ratio broke below its 2019 support (which served as resistance in mid-2020). When the same thing happened in 2020, the ratio then spiked even below 1.The bottom line?If the ratio is likely to continue its decline, then on a short-term basis we can expect it to decline to 1.27 or so. If the general stock market plunges, the ratio could move even lower, but let’s assume that stocks decline moderately (just as they did in the last couple of days) or that they do nothing or rally slightly. They’ve done all the above recently, so it’s natural to expect that this will be the case. Consequently, the trend in the GDXJ to GDX ratio would also be likely to continue, and thus expecting a move to about 1.26 - 1.27 seems rational.If the GDX is about to decline to approximately $28 before correcting, then we might expect the GDXJ to decline to about $28 x 1.27 = $35.56 or $28 x 1.26 = $35.28. In other words, ~$28 in the GDX is likely to correspond to about $35 in the GDXJ.Is there any technical support around $35 that would be likely to stop the decline? Yes. It’s provided by the late-Feb. 2020 low ($34.70) and the late-March high ($34.84). There’s also the late-April low at $35.63. Conservatively, I’m going to place the profit-take level just above the latter.Consequently, it seems that expecting the GDXJ to decline to about $35 is justified from the technical point of view as well.Speaking of ratios, there was also a major breakdown in the gold to gold stocks ratio which most likely heralds severe declines in the following weeks/months, and if you’re interested in it, I recorded a (or search for “Sunshine Profits” on YouTube – it’s the Oct. 2 video).In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks have all broken down technically, and their fundamental outlooks also remain quite treacherous over the next few months. With the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high last week and U.S. Treasury yields also rallying, the pairs’ upward momentum should continue over the medium term. Moreover, with the general stock market also showing signs of stress, a profound decline could add to the precious metals’ ills. As a result, gold, silver, and mining stocks’ weakness should continue before lasting bottoms likely form near the end of the year.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

How the Recent Natural Gas Surge Boosts Crude Prices

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.10.2021 18:00
This could be an interesting week for both energy commodity markets!Market AnalysisWhile most of the UK fuel crisis is resolved, the British government suggested that the military truck drivers will be helping out to facilitate the arrival of fuel to the South-East region, including London, where shortages still remain to be fixed around the capital.(Source: Matt Cartoons)As I already mentioned in a number of previous editions of our Oil Trading Alerts, we are still witnessing a very particular phenomenon of gas demand shifting to oil demand, as crude is nowadays relatively more competitive. Thus, this switch in energy demand could come in the following forms:From a slowdown in electricity production in Asia.From a hedging effect in the anticipation of a colder than normal winter in the northern hemisphere.OPEC+ members are meeting today and, therefore, might increase their production a little more than expected to rebalance supply. So, would it help the black gold to make a new dip?Check out my premium analysis for full trading positions.Figure 1 – WTI Crude Oil (CLX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale)Figure 2 – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 05.10.2021 09:04
At a closer look:Bitcoin is divisible to a much higher degree than gold. This means even small purchases can be made in dire times.It is also scarcer than gold since a maximum of twenty-one million coins defines it, while gold supply is speculative and continuously mined.Where bitcoin truly shines is in its portability. A long-distance payment in gold can provide quite some hurdles, while a bitcoin transaction is verified typically within less than an hour anywhere in the world.Verifiability is an easy one for bitcoin on a computer, and not so easy for gold. From a security perspective, a tiny “USB-like” stick can hold all your wealth when it comes to bitcoin, while a Fort Knocks is necessary for a more extensive gold amount for protection.Now that we have established bitcoins validity to measure up to the big boys, let us look at its desirability from a chart perspective regarding acquisition timing.Housing Sector Index in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Clouds on the horizon:Housing Sector Index in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 4th, 2021.With China’s real estate bubble in bloom and markets intertwined throughout the globe, early warning signals also start to show in the US. The daily chart above of the HGX (Housing Sector Index) gives such an indication clearly. We see a similar picture of a previous swift decline (-50%) setting up at the 200 moving average (orange line) right now. The index, composed of companies whose primary lines of business are directly associated with the U.S. housing construction market, already lost more than 18% from its recent top last May.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Everything is possible:Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 4th, 2021.Most of the time, real estate is the first turning point for the market to come undone. Closely followed by the Russel 2000, then the S&P500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100. Precious metals are not spared since money is needed to pay for margin calls. All asset classes get in motion, and so will Bitcoin; rather sooner than later, since “exotics” typically are cannon fodder. No worries, though; it will be in turn also in the early recovery field alongside precious metals.A look at a monthly gold chart shows a ten-year bullish uptrend followed by a ten-year wide sideways range. Consequently, we are left with two likely scenarios. A trend continuation initiated by a breakout to new highs. And equally a possibility after the wide double top built in August last year that prices decline further down. This especially if Gold comes under pressure of an altogether market crash. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 5th, 2021.China isn’t just the forefront threat regarding real estate but also an insight into how strong regulation of a market, in this case, bitcoin, can have detrimental effects on a market already in a retracement. It is likely that the crypto space and bitcoin will see a second wave of regulatory attacks in the US.The weekly bitcoin chart illustrates that price is stuck in a distribution zone, with a second resistance zone right above (red squares). We find these price levels less attractive from a market low-risk entry perspective. Consequently, we see a more attractive entry point once the market has shown its hand. Now is the time to keep the powder dry and act sensibly after the possible storm shows first signs of clearing skies.Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold:Evolution churns slowly, and gold outperforms bitcoin by far when it comes to established history. But as much as change might come slowly to human behavior, it is yet a fact that once fuel injection was outperforming carburetors, that sooner or later, everyone wants the better performing car. What we did not mention yet is bitcoins advantage over gold in the aspect of decentralization—a new element to money that could come to the forefront of importance faster than assumed just yet.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 5th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Lacks Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 05.10.2021 09:26
USDJPY retreats below resistanceThe dollar bounced back against the yen after a weak Tokyo CPI in September.As the pair rose to the peak from February 2020 (112.20), a bearish RSI divergence revealed weakness in the momentum. A break below 111.20 and a bearish MA cross may have dented optimism.The US dollar has seen bids at 110.90 when the RSI neared the oversold area. However, the bounce has been capped by 111.50 as trapped buyers were waiting to get out. A new round of sell-off would send the price to the psychological level of 110.00.USDNOK tests critical supportRally in oil prices helped lift the Norwegian krone against the greenback.The pair had met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 8.8000. A sharp drop below 8.6500, which has turned into resistance, suggests that sellers have regained control of the action.A close below 8.5500 (a major support from the daily chart) would invalidate the latest rebound and put the dollar on a bearish trajectory. An oversold RSI may cause a temporary bounce. 8.4500 would be the next stop when momentum traders stake in.GER 40 hovers over major supportStock markets still jitter over ongoing supply chain disruptions.The Dax 40 has been treading water over the psychological level of 15000. A bullish RSI divergence in this important demand zone indicates that selling has become less aggressive.However, it may be too soon to call for a U-turn. The bulls must take out 15330 before they could convince trend-followers of a turnaround. Then, 15700 would be the next hurdle.On the downside, a bearish breakout would trigger a wave of stop-losses, sending the index towards 14500.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 05.10.2021

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.10.2021 15:43
S&P 500 stopped consolidating in the 4,340s shortly after the open, and went largely one way since – except for the run up to the closing bell, which I used to grab short profits off the table. The overnight pump is at work today – not vigorously, but still. Given the credit market posture (yields not rising much on the day), a brief retracement in tech can be expected – especially since yesterday‘s outage news were what powered it in the first place.VIX has gone nowhere yesterday, and looks unwilling to spend much time below 21 really. We‘re at crossroads where the supports I mentioned on Thursday, are giving way one after another. 4,260s are next in line, followed by 4200s – it would take time to get there, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls could be the catalyst. Unless they come in outrageously weak, the Fed is likely to announce taper in Nov – monetary policy deceleration into a weakening economy while inflation expectations are rising, supply chains increasingly strained to the point that the International Chamber of Shipping has issued a red alert warning of a global transport systems collapse – make you go hmm. Something tells me the Fed won‘t be as successful jawboning inflation as in June – its favorite metric, the PCE deflator, isn‘t yielding, and the realization that inflation is here to stay, is creeping in. I don't know how so much of the financial universe could have been duped by the transitory narrative... for so long.The energy squeeze is on – I cashed in sizable oil profits yesterday (check at my site the portfolio performance at fresh highs!) – the dollar is stalling, cryptos are rising and adding to open profits too, while precious metals are waking up. I‘m looking for silver to lead and be more resilient – the gold to silver ratio falling first below 73 would be a welcome confirmation of the budding broad recognition of inflation across the markets.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume doesn‘t show the buyers are serious here. This downswing isn‘t over.Credit MarketsHYG was really weak yesterday, but the quality debt instruments positioning hints at a reprieve, at a risk-off led S&P 500 pause next.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver upswing was finally joined by the miners – the sentiment is warming up to further gains.Crude OilThe crude oil elevator hasn‘t stopped yet, but I wouldn‘t be surprised by a consolidation of gained ground next.CopperCopper upswing was a bit too readily sold into, and the volume wasn‘t stellar. This long sideways trend isn‘t over yet.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are approaching the early Sep highs – and look likely to overcome them.SummaryStock market bears still have the upper hand, and credit markets are signalling caution. None of the intraday reversals to the upside have stuck, and we haven‘t reached a local bottom yet. Coupled with the stagflationary undertones, the cyclically sensitive commodities have a harder time than oil. The dollar is likely to come under increasing pressure, which would underpin precious metals and commodities alike.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Will Q4 2021 Be Better for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 05.10.2021 16:57
The third quarter of 2021 was bad for gold, with a particularly awful September. Could the remainder of the year be any better for the yellow metal?September is believed to be, from the historical point of view, one of the best months for gold. Well, September 2021 definitely wasn’t very good for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold declined almost 4% in that month (from $1,814.85 at the end of August to $1,742.80 at the end of September).Actually, the whole third quarter was rather disappointing for the yellow metal, which lost 1.15% over the last three months. However, it was still much better than the disastrous first quarter of the year in which gold plunged more than 10%. So far, the yellow metal is 7.67% down year-to-date.But why did gold perform so poorly last month despite elevated inflation and all the risks present to the US economy? Long story short, rising bond yields and the stronger greenback were the main headwinds for gold in September and, more generally, in the whole Q3 2021, as one can see in the chart below.In the first half of the year, the US dollar performed rather poorly, but a more hawkish Fed helped to revive the greenback and push interest rates higher. In such an environment, any safe-haven bets – amid the uncertainty about the debt ceiling, debt problems in China, etc. – were channeled into the US dollar alone. In other words, because of the expectations of the Fed’s tapering, the recent risk-off sentiment has benefited only the greenback, not gold. So, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset has diminished recently. The same applies, actually, to gold’s status as an inflation hedge.To be clear, the whole issue is more nuanced. I believe that gold still has anti-inflationary features, especially when inflation is very high and accelerating. I also think that gold will retain its purchasing power over the long run. It might simply be the case that rising interest rates counterweighed the reasons for investing in gold during inflation, especially given that it seems that the Fed convinced the markets that inflation would only be temporary.However, if inflation turns out to be more persistent, the Fed could find itself behind the curve, while the real interest rates could stay at very low levels. In such a scenario, the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation could rise again. As a reminder, there are many arguments for high inflation staying with us for longer. Even Powell admitted last week that inflationary pressure would run into next year:It’s also frustrating to see the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better — in fact at the margins apparently getting a little bit worse (…) We see that continuing into next year probably, and holding up inflation longer than we had thought.Implications for GoldWhat does it all imply for the gold market? Well, the recent jump in gold prices is quite welcoming. However, it doesn’t change gold’s bearish outlook for the fourth quarter of 2021. Gold has been unable to surpass $1,800, and it looks like it wants to keep falling. In particular, any new hawkish comments from the Fed could push gold prices down even further.Having said that, I’m more optimistic about gold in 2022. One reason is that, over time, the narrative about transitory inflation will look less and less convincing. Meanwhile, the odds of some inflationary crisis, or stagflation, should be higher and higher.Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle seems to already be priced in to a large extent. So, the actual moves could start supporting gold at some point, in line with the logic of “sell the rumor, buy the fact”, especially if the moves are accompanied by dovish rhetoric, as it was partially the case during the last tightening cycle of 2015-2019.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Sell-Off Fades

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.10.2021 09:30
XAUUSD tests resistanceGold hit a speed bump after an upbeat ISM Services PMI boosted the dollar’s appeal.The metal saw buying interest in the major demand zone around 1720. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the pace of the sell-off. The initial surge above 1745 could be due to profit-taking from the short side, a prerequisite for a reversal.1775 is the main hurdle and its breach may lead to the psychological level of 1800. On the downside, the area between 1720 and 1740 is the floor to keep price action afloat.AUDUSD attempts to reboundThe Australian dollar consolidated its gains after the RBA played down the rate-hike pressure.The rally above 0.7250 has prompted short-term traders to take some chips off the table. However, the bulls will need to clear the main hurdle at 0.7310 before they could extend upward. The RSI’s double top in this congestion area may momentarily restrain their optimism.In case of a pullback, 0.7190 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Failing that, the pair could tumble towards the daily support at 0.7120.NAS 100 breaks key supportThe Nasdaq 100 struggles as investors rotate out of growth stocks amid an uncertain outlook.The break below last July’s low (14450) has pushed the index into a deeper correction. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart points to a downgrade in market sentiment.An oversold RSI has caused a temporary rebound, which would be an opportunity for trend followers to sell into strength. 14330 is the next support. Short-term traders who are brave enough to buy the dips must push through 14850 to secure a foothold.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Getting Cornered

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.10.2021 15:38
S&P 500 rally fizzled out overnight as stagflation worries are gaining firmer ground. The focus shifted to more Chinese property developers, and German factory orders drop was larger than expected – and at the same time, both inflation and inflation expectations keep rising.VIX indeed hasn‘t declined below 21, and today‘s session has bearish understones again. The cynics could ask how long before the Fed rides to Treasuries rescue, breaking the dollar upswing (not that signs of its weakening wouldn‘t be there), which would help stocks crawl back somewhat? Tech already defied rising yields yesterday, but can its upswing stick? Not too likely, for there is a shift happening, and that merits attention of commodities, PMs and crypto investors. The paper asset bears have the advantage while inflation is getting increasingly a recognized issue, underpinning real assets and cryptocurrencies.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume doesn‘t confirm the upswing‘s strength.Credit MarketsHYG holding up better could be interpreted as mildly risk-on, but given the bond market sentiment, it remains suspect.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are feeling the heat of rising rates / underpinned dollar, but notice that the bears have a harder and harder time to drive down these paper prices.Crude OilCrude oil ascent is approaching $80 resistance, and will likely back and fill before taking up on this level. Given the celebrations in oil stocks, this time is approaching.CopperCopper keeps struggling in spite of broader commodities strength – the red metal is bidding its time.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum keep consolidating gained ground, and the bears are likely to make a very temporary appearance.SummaryStock market bears continue having the upper hand, and credit markets are thinking twice about every upswing. As the stagflationary atmosphere intensifies, look for the commodities to do much better than stocks or bonds, and for precious metals to join once the Fed wobbles again, or sees its bluff called.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Fed: Singing the Inflation Blues

Fed: Singing the Inflation Blues

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 06.10.2021 16:49
With inflation surging and Powell praying for a “transitory” miracle, the troubles confronting the Fed are accelerating, not decelerating.“I got the blues, Got those inflation blues”-- B.B. KingTo explain, I wrote on Sep. 24:I’ve warned on several occasions that the only way for the Fed to control inflation is to increase the value of the U.S. dollar and decrease the value of commodities. However, with commodities’ fervor accelerating on Sep. 23 – a day when the USD Index declined – the price action should concern Chairman Jerome Powell. As a result, FOMC participants’ 2022 inflation forecast is likely wishful thinking and they may find that a faster liquidity drain (which is bullish for the U.S. dollar) is their only option to control the pricing pressures.To that point, with energy prices increasingly unhinged and WTI on pace for its seventh-straight week of weekly gains, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) has been on fire recently. For context, the S&P GSCI contains 24 commodities from all sectors: six energy products, five industrial metals, eight agricultural products, three livestock products and two precious metals. However, energy accounts for roughly 54% of the index’s movement.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the S&P GSCI’s current rally off of the bottom, while the red line above tracks the S&P GSCI’s rally off of the bottom in 2009-2010 (following the global financial crisis). If you analyze the middle of the chart, you can see that the S&P GSCI has completely run away from the 2009-2010 analogue. For context, at this point in 2009-2010, the S&P GSCI had rallied by 77% off of the bottom. However, as of the Oct. 5 close, the S&P GSCI has now rallied by 154% off of the April 2020 bottom.Furthermore, with higher energy and materials prices exacerbating the cost-push inflationary spiral, signs of stress remain abundant. For example, IHS Markit released its U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Oct. 1. And while the headline index declined from 61.1 in August to 60.7 in September, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said that “prices charged for those goods leaving the factory gate also surged higher again in September, rising at a rate exceeding anything seen in nearly 15 years of survey history.”Please see below:Source: IHS MarkitSinging a similar tune, the Institute for Supply Management (ISI) released its Services PMI on Oct. 5. For context, the U.S. service sector has suffered the brunt of the Delta variant’s wrath. And though pricing pressures aren’t as feverish as they are in the U.S. manufacturing sector, the report revealed that inflation increased at a “faster” pace and that “all 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of September.”In addition, PepsiCo released its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 5. And after beating analysts’ estimates on both the top and bottom lines, the beverage giant raised its full-year guidance. However, while demand remains resilient, 11.6% year-over-year (YoY) consolidated net revenue growth coincided with a 3% decline in diluted earnings per share (EPS).Despite that though, CEO Ramon Laguarta told analysts during the company’s Q3 earnings call that “what we're seeing across the world is much lower elasticity on the pricing that we've seen historically,” and as a result, price hikes are scheduled to commence in the coming months. For context, ‘elasticity’ attempts to quantify the change in demand that results from a change in price. And with CFO Hugh Johnston expecting charge inflation to outpace cost inflation going forward, “lower elasticity” is materially problematic for the Fed.Please see below:Source: PepsiCo/The Motley FoolIf that wasn’t enough, BMO Harris Bank announced on Oct. 5 that it will increase its minimum hourly wage for all branch and call-center employees by a “20 Percent Minimum” to $18 an hour. For context, BMO Harris Bank has more than 500 branches and more than 12,000 employees in the U.S.Please see below:Source: BMO Harris BankMore importantly, though, with Powell’s inflationary conundrum helping swing the double-edged sword that’s been fundamentally slashing the PMs, the USD Index rallied by 0.20% on Oct. 5 and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened across the board.Please see below:Source: Investing.comAs it relates to the dollar story, the USD Index’s fundamental strength is underwritten by the ‘dollar smile.’ To explain, when the U.S. economy is trudging along, the U.S. dollar tends to underperform. However, when the U.S. economy craters and a safe-haven bid emerges, the U.S. dollar often outperforms. Conversely (and similarly), when the U.S. economy is booming and higher interest rates materialize, the U.S. dollar also outperforms.By the way, I’ve discussed the situation in the USD Index at length in today’s video.For context, I indicated on Sep. 22:The USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields can move in the same direction or forge different paths. However, while a stock market crash is likely the most bearish fundamental outcome that could confront the PMs, scenario #2 is next in line. When U.S. economic strength provides a fundamental thesis for both the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields to rise (along with real interest rates), the double-edged sword often leaves the PMs with deep lacerations.To that point, with a mix of both playing out in the present, Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea, signalled clients that the dollar smile remains alive and well:“The dollar should continue to be supported by expectations of an eventual series of Fed rate hikes and the value of the dollar as a safe haven against a potential equity correction…. The downward trend in EUR/USD is likely to return in the coming weeks and months, suggesting EUR/USD around the 1.10 handle and potentially below that before moving higher.”As for the yield story, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial, told clients that “markets appear increasingly jittery as the realization of a higher sustained level of inflation eventually resulting in a higher level of rates appears to be finally sinking in.... Against the backdrop of elevated inflation and rapidly rising energy costs, many market participants are skeptical the FOMC will be able to maintain these low rates for another year, let alone two.”The bottom line? With inflation running away from the Fed, suppressing commodity prices (by strengthening the U.S. dollar and/or raising interest rates) is the only way to calm the inflationary pressures. If not, surging commodity prices will likely further suppress consumer confidence, upend corporate profit margins, culminate with demand destruction and the stock market should suffer mightily (which is also bullish for the U.S. dollar). As a result, with Powell creating an even larger inflationary wildfire the longer he waits, the PMs could confront immense volatility over the medium term.In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Oct. 5, though trouble looms large in the months ahead. With the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields ripe for upward re-ratings, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative hasn’t aged well. And with the PMs’ main villains doing a lot of their fundamental damage since Powell turned hawkish, more upside catalysts should emerge over the medium term. As a result, the PMs’ outlook remains profoundly bearish over the next few months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Gold Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.10.2021 15:45
With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?QE InfinityWhile I’ve warned on several occasions that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the latter now wants to provide more QE once it concludes QE. To explain, with the ECB’s PEPP program set to expire at the end of March 2022, the central bank is increasingly worried about a bond market sell-off. And with sluggish Eurozone growth, exorbitant sovereign debt and a lack of fiscal impulse increasing the ECB’s anxiety, officials are studying “alternatives” to suppress interest rates in the Eurozone’s most debt-ridden countries.Please see below:Source: BloombergFor context, I’ve been warning for months that the ECB would disappoint euro bulls.I wrote on Apr. 27:Recent whispers of the ECB tapering its bond-buying program are extremely premature. With the European economy still drastically underperforming the U.S., it’s actually more likely that the ECB increases the pace of its bond-buying program. Case in point: while the EUR/USD ignores the reality, last week’s PEPP purchases (€22.2 billion) by the ECB were the highest since June 2020. Moreover, since its March meeting, the ECB has increased its average daily PEPP purchases per week from €2.90 billion to €3.60 billion.To that point, with reality in fashion once again, the EUR/USD closed at a new 2021 low on Oct. 6 and sunk to its lowest level since July 2020. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the performance of the currency pair is material.Please see below:Furthermore, with the Fed closing in on a taper announcement and the ECB searching for new ways to extend QE, the divergence is profoundly bullish for the U.S. dollar. To explain, rising Eurozone inflation (which pales in comparison to the U.S.) underwrote misguided optimism for a hawkish shift. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated her dovish stance on Oct. 5, saying that “we should not overreact to supply shortages or rising energy prices, as our monetary policy cannot directly affect those phenomena.”The Inflation Divergence Is ProfoundMoreover, while the Eurozone headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in September (released on Oct. 1), the U.S. headline HICP surged by 6.77% in its latest print (released on Aug. 18). Even more revealing, if you exclude the inflationary impacts of food and energy prices, the Eurozone core HICP only increased by 1.9% YoY in September.Please see below:Source: EurostatIn stark contrast, the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which also excludes the inflationary impacts of food and energy prices and the latest release is more current than the U.S. HICP – increased by 4% YoY in August (released on Sep. 14).Please see below:In addition, while the Eurozone headline HICP at 3.4% YoY is still higher than the ECB’s 2% annual inflation target, it’s important to keep things in perspective. For example, since Lagarde has been leading the ECB, the Eurozone headline and core HICP have trended 0.8% and 1.7% below her annual targets. What’s more, when indexed from the beginning of 2012, Eurozone headline HICP is still 8% below the ECB’s 2% annual inflation trend.Please see below:Source: Frederik DucrozetTo explain, the red and blue lines above track the index levels of the Eurozone headline and core HICP, while the gray line above tracks the index level assuming the ECB has been meeting its 2% annual inflation target since the beginning of 2012. If you analyze the material gap on the right side of the chart, you can see that the ECB is far from achieving its objectives.Likewise, if we zoom in on the roughly two-year chart, both the Eurozone headline and core HICP are still tracking materially below the ECB’s annual inflation targets.Please see below: Source: Frederik DucrozetCyclical Slowdown Ahead?Furthermore, while the ECB studies “alternatives” to prevent interest rates from spiking in high-debt countries like Greece, Italy and Portugal, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – has suffered a significant economic setback. To explain, Germany is a manufacturing-heavy economy and exports are an important component of German GDP. However, with German factory orders plunging by 7.7% on Oct. 6 – with foreign demand down by 9.5% and domestic demand down by 5.2% – it was the sharpest month-over-month (MoM) decline since April 2020. For context, the consensus estimate was for a 2.1% decline.Please see below:Piecing it all together, with interest rate anxiety merging with a cyclical slowdown in Europe, Danske Bank expects lower-for-longer ECB policy to contribute to a lower-for-longer EUR/USD. The Danish bank’s strategists told clients:“There has been no shortage of calls for EUR/USD to 1.30, of pieces written on a regime shift having happened in fiscal policy, oversubscription to social bonds and much more. However, narratives change…. Stagflation, rapid cyclical slowdown, rising interest rates and a correction in valuations may prove to be a very negative capital shock to the euro area and its asset prices. We target 1.13 in spot EUR/USD in the next year but if stagflation, cyclical slowdown and rising rates become dominant themes, then there seem to be clear downside to such estimate.”Adding to the bearish euro thesis, with U.S. nonfarm payrolls scheduled for release on Oct. 8, a strong print could usher the EUR/USD even lower. For example, ADP’s private payrolls came in at 568,000 vs. 428,000 expected on Oct. 6. And though ADP’s data is an extremely poor predictor of U.S. nonfarm payrolls, Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, provided the following context:“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter. Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months.”And expecting those “solid job gains” to materialize sooner rather than later, J.P. Morgan strategists told clients that “we are looking for a 575,000 gain in jobs [on Oct. 8]. The driver for an above-consensus forecast is the expected rebound in the leisure and hospitality sectors.” For context, the consensus estimate is for 500,000 jobs added.The bottom line? While the EUR/USD is finally starting to reflect fundamental reality, more downside should materialize in the coming months. With the Fed accelerating its hawkish rhetoric (and Chairman Jerome Powell’s shift the most noteworthy), the ECB is headed in the opposite direction. And while I’ve been warning for months that the Eurozone’s economic recovery is much more fragile than the U.S.’, the seeds are now sown for a profound divergence in central bank policy.Moreover, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls may or may not accelerate the timeline on Oct. 8, it’s important to remember that the medium-term implications remain intact: the Fed should taper at a much faster pace than the ECB and the liquidity drain should pressure the FED/ECB ratio and the EUR/USD in the coming months. More importantly, though, with the EUR/USD’s pain the USD Index’s gain, the latter’s strong negative correlation with gold, silver and mining stocks should result in further downside for the PMs over the medium term.In conclusion, the PMs were mixed once again on Oct. 6, though silver, was the worst performer of the bunch. Moreover, with the USD Index recapturing 94, and the front-end of the U.S. yield curve rallying as well, a recovering U.S. labor market should add more upward momentum to the PMs’ fundamental villains. As a result, the precious metals’ current consolidations will likely give way to sharp drawdowns in the coming months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and silver that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Risk-On Turnaround

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.10.2021 15:48
S&P 500 – done declining, not spooked by bearish credit market open, stocks reversed and rallied into the finishing line. HYG almost managed to close the opening, exhaustion gap. On such days, it‘s extremely important to be subscribed, and catch the benefits of fresh trading decisions – here, going long stocks, as early as possible. So, I hope you were served by the intraday stock market update, which I issued right away after that long white candle on 5min TF, 50min into the regular session. The open long positions is going great, thank you very much.Today‘s rally is powered by debt ceiling relief, postponing the drama. Declining oil and natural gas prices are also taken (correctly) as risk-on confirmations as crude oil tends to serve as a kind of shaddow Fed funds rate in regulating economic activity. Make no mistake, this respite is temporary as we‘ll have to live with triple digit oil next year. Bottom line, risk-on is back, and the dollar is likely to get under pressure here, and Treasuy yields should continue their rise. Powerful implication for the antidollar plays, including precious metals turning around, and cryptos dealing further profits.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rose on respectable volume and improving market breadth – looking for follow through buying.Credit MarketsHYG was the key mover yesterday, bought on solid volume – the exhaustion gap would soon be history.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are getting ready for an upswing, led by silver. The upper knots and failed silver‘s breakdown are the clues as much as the daily miners revival.Crude OilCrude oil fever calmed down yesterday, but the volume says correction, not a reversal. Let‘s see when the bulls can jump back in.CopperCopper seems done declining for now, yet solid buying interest isn‘t there yet. Still looking range bound to me.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum keep consolidating yesterday‘s sharp gains, and the bears look to have made the yesterday discussed very temporary appearance already.SummaryStocks have turned, and the oil prices respite and debt ceiling relief are helping to extend the rally. The bottom is in as the bears couldn‘t push S&P 500 down anymore. It‘s back to risk-on again, even though the macro picture of increasing stagflationary risks hasn‘t changed – that would be an environment where commodities do much better than stocks or bonds, and precious metals are ready to join once the Fed wobbles again, sees its bluff called, or confronted with reality.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Inflation Finally Meets Wall Street’s Ears! Is Gold Next?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.10.2021 15:50
At last, something is happening! Rising oil and gas prices sparked inflation worries among investors. However, gold hasn’t benefited so far…It took Wall Street a while to find out about inflation above 5%, but it seems that investors have finally noticed that we live now in a world of elevated inflation. I have always known that only the smartest minds work on Wall Street! So, right after they finally learned how to operate a computer and found the BLS website, they got scared and started selling equities. As a consequence, the U.S. stock index futures declined yesterday morning.All right, I was a bit mean to the Wall Street traders. They panicked not because of the CPI rates but because of soaring oil prices. As the chart below shows, the WTI crude oil has recently approached $80 per barrel, while the price of natural gas has more than doubled in recent weeks (left axis). A propos, if you want to know more about oil, gas and the energy sector, as well as keep track of all price moves happening there (and possibly profit from them!), I can recommend a great place to do so - Oil Trading Alerts.The rising oil prices triggered inflation worries, as higher energy prices could translate into higher consumer inflation, and higher consumer inflation could trigger a more hawkish Fed’s action than previously anticipated. In particular, the US central bank could taper its quantitative easing faster than expected, especially if September nonfarm payrolls turn out to be decent. After all, good news is right now bad news for stocks, not to mention gold.I’ve been warning for a long time now that inflation could be more lasting than the pundits claim. And here we are, the high inflation readings couldn’t be downplayed any longer, so the IMF admitted yesterday in its flagship report World Economic Outlook that elevated inflation could last by mid-2022:Headline inflation is projected to peak in the final months of 2021, with inflation expected back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022 for both advanced economies and emerging markets country groups, and with risks tilted to the upside.However, the baseline scenario assumes that inflation expectations remain anchored. And although the IMF is right that market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations have stayed relatively anchored so far, the measures based on surveys of consumers have clearly de-anchored recently, as the chart below shows.I don’t know on which planet IMF economists live, but in my world such a graph shows anything but well-anchored inflation expectations. So, I would say that upside risks to the IMF’s baseline scenario are more probable than the authors are willing to admit. In fact, even they acknowledge that risks remain tilted slightly to the upside over the medium term:Sharply rising housing prices and prolonged input supply shortages in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and continued food price pressures and currency depreciations in the latter group could keep inflation elevated for longer.Implications for GoldWhat does it all imply for the gold market? Well, as usual, I’m obliged to say that, theoretically, higher inflation should be positive for gold, which is considered to be an inflation hedge. However, theoretical links, which we can analyze in isolation, in reality work together with other forces, as economy is a complex system. In our case, gold is not getting much benefit from strengthening inflation worries as bond yields are rising in tandem, supporting the real interest rates. Gold’s disappointing performance in the inflationary environment (see the chart below) is also caused by the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle.So, it seems that gold could remain in the downward trend in the near future, especially if the Employment Situation Report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, doesn’t disappoint. However, the Fed will have to reverse its course at some point –they will not hesitate whether they should fight with the overheating or stimulate the economy during a crisis. And this will allow gold to shine again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Wall of Worry Meets NFPs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.10.2021 15:28
S&P 500 reached my target, and then folded like a cheap suit – into an overnight correction, without attempting to overcome 4,420. As much as the prior advance was broad based, so was the retreat. Tech, value, credit markets – but the decline wasn‘t sold into heavily, and that means the bulls can recover. Still, sizable long profits had been taken overnight automatically, as neither the buyers nor the sellers got anywhere.The non-farm payrolls thesis goes like this – unless the figure is truly disappointing, the Fed would have to execute on the practically promised Nov taper announcement. Treasury yields aren‘t though buying it, and have ventured higher on their own already, just as inflation expectations did. The debt ceiling has turned into a drama that wasn‘t as the can was kicked down the road into early Dec. The dollar didn‘t react much to the wrangling, but the selling will soon revisit the world reserve currency that is taking its time.Commodities aren‘t budging, and cryptos continue appreciating while precious metals see encouraging, yet intermittent signs of life that would be delivered through monetary stance reevaluation (that equals no taking the foot off the gas pedal). More follow through is needed in gold and silver, and the white metal should lead the upswing. Copper did confirm it on a daily basis yesterday, but the red metal remains still internally weak – unlike oil that didn‘t even properly pierce the $75 level.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 formed more of a consolidation than a true reversal candle – the volume wasn‘t there, but the bears can attempt to take on yesterday‘s gap.Credit MarketsHYG signalled the retreat, and moved practically in a straight line lower after reaching the daily top. Closing at daily lows on significant volume isn‘t a bullish sign.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are directionless, but attempts to move to the downside, are being rejected, and miners keep improving. Much more needs to happen, and be confirmed by the turn in copper, too. Stagflationary data would be the catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil downswing was immediately bought – the bulls aren‘t yielding yet, and energy remains the key commodity upswing driver. Whether the bulls keep most of the high ground and consolidate there, is the key question. My answer is that they likely will.CopperCopper continues oscillating in a narrowing range, and the volume is declining – it‘s slowly getting ready for a sizable move, which would help precious metals too.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum arte pushing higher after a daily pause, and the open profits are rising. Similarly to oil, the reprieve is being immediately bought – little wonder given the macro environment of stagflationary worries and Fed doubts.SummaryStocks are pausing, and have to broadly turn into risk-on mode so as to extend gains above 4,420. We aren‘t yet there, but the bulls will keep climbing the wall of worry once NFPs disappointment wears off. The most beneficial effect would be on real assets – in line with my latest tweet.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stocks’ Breakout May Be Short-Lived, NFP Release Leaves Question Marks

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.10.2021 15:51
Stocks broke above their consolidation yesterday. Is this an upward reversal or just another upward correction? The NFP release leaves question marks.The S&P 500 index gained 0.83% on Thursday following breaking above the recent local highs and the 4,400 price level. The market retraced most of its late September’s decline yesterday as investors awaited today’s monthly jobs data release, among other factors. The Nonfarm Payrolls release has been worse than expected at +194,000. However, the main indices are expected to open 0.1-0.5% higher this morning.The support level is now at 4,365-4,385, marked by yesterday’s daily gap up of 4,365.57-4,383.73. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,430-4,450. The S&P 500 broke above its month-long downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):S&P 500 Remains Above Medium-Term Support LevelThe S&P 500 index is trading below its almost year-long upward trend line. The nearest important medium-term support level remains at 4,200-4,300, as we can see on the weekly chart:Dow Jones Got Back to Its Downward Trend LineLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index also broke above its short-term consolidation yesterday. However, it remained below a month-long downward trend line. The nearest important resistance level is at 35,000, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Is Back Above $142 Price Level AgainApple stock weighs around 6.1% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. The stock broke above $142 price level yesterday but for now it looks like a correction within a downtrend or a consolidation following the September’s decline. The resistance level is now at $144, marked by the previous local highs.ConclusionThe S&P 500 index has been trading within a short-term consolidation since last Thursday. Yesterday the index broke above that consolidation and it got back above the 4,400 level. For now it looks like an upward correction following the late September’s declines.The risk/reward perspective seems less favorable right now and no positions are currently justified.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 broke above its week-long consolidation, but bulls are not out of the woods yet, as the worse-than-expected jobs data release may lead to some more uncertainty.Our speculative short position has been closed last Friday at a much lower level.We are still expecting more downward pressure and a correction to 4,200-4,250 level.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Will the Surge in Spending on Goods Include Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.10.2021 16:14
Consumers’ expenses on goods soared amid the pandemic crisis. Will gold benefit from this spending spree?“We need lower [consumer demand] growth to give the supply chain time to catch up, or differently spread out growth”, said Morten Engelstoft, chief executive of Maersk-owned APM Terminals, in September. Even though I’m fully aware of the supply-chain crisis, Engelstoft’s remarks struck me. Companies usually complain about soft consumers’ appetite, not about strong demand, and they don’t call for a reduction in expenditures!Something strange is happening here, indeed. So, I decided to dig into this issue a bit deeper, and I was even more struck by the data I found. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows the US real personal consumption expenditures on services (red line) and on goods (green line). As you can see, people’s spending on goods has increased about 15% since February 2020.Let’s repeat it, adding some context: we experienced the deepest recession since the Great Depression, but the personal expenditures on goods are not lower, but higher! And they are substantially higher, as 15% is a giant disturbance to the production system, which is very difficult to be accommodated in such a short time.Why is it so important? Well, it’s a unique development. As the chart above shows, after the global financial crisis in 2007-2009, consumer spending on goods has returned to the pre-crisis level only in 2012. This difference is caused by two things. The first is enormous fiscal stimulus passed in response to the epidemic. As a result, the demand for goods, especially durables, surged, boosting inflation.The second is the fact that the Covid-19 crisis wasn’t a crisis of aggregate demand, but it was a structural crisis, i.e., it was characterized by the substantial shift in the structure of spending. As you can see in the chart above, the personal consumption expenditures on services haven’t yet returned to the pre-pandemic level. In other words, because of the Great Lockdown, people couldn’t leave their money in restaurants, hotels, movie theatres, etc., so they started to buy more stuff. However, the government and central banks acted as if the problem was aggregate demand, so they boosted the money supply and fiscal deficits, contributing to the rising prices of goods.What does it all mean for the gold market? The first implication is that the current expansion is and will be, as I warned shortly after the economic crisis, more inflationary than the recovery from the Great Recession. Inflation is already high, and it may increase even further, or at least stay at the elevated level for a while, given the scale of supply-side challenges.According to Brian Sondey, chief executive of Triton International, the world’s largest container leasing company, “consensus in the industry is we’re unlikely to see a cleaning up of the situation until deep into next year”. This means that inflation could be more lasting than the Fed claims. Gold should benefit from higher inflation and lower real interest rates, but only if Powell and his colleagues don’t become more hawkish in response to persistent price pressure and interest rates don’t rise significantly. Luckily for gold, the FOMC seems to be focused on employment much more than inflation.The second implication is that the current expansion may prove to be unsustainable; the economy could slowly revert to the structure and trends from before the pandemic. In this scenario, the demand for services would rise, but the demand for goods would fall. If the demand for goods declines, companies could reduce their investments. Then, the supply-chain disruptions could become aggravated, while the economy could enter a new recession. What’s important, in this case, a recession could be accompanied by relatively elevated inflation. In such a stagflationary environment, gold might shine.Of course, this is just a scenario, and it might turn out that the structure of demand for goods and services won’t return to the pre-pandemic level and the economy will enter a new, steeper path of growth. In this more optimistic scenario, gold would struggle. The coming months will be crucial for the future of the economy and the precious metals market.One thing is certain, however. We are not yet on a nice, riskless post-pandemic path and important structural shifts are still ahead of us. Last year, the shifts in consumer spending and mammoth monetary and fiscal stimulus perhaps helped to avoid a more serious recession, but at the expense of higher inflation. We can still enter a recession though — at this time, with stronger price pressure. Nonetheless, given all the risks ahead of us, gold should still be of interest to investors.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Silver is your inflation protector

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.10.2021 07:05
Gold in US-Dollar, weekly Chart, Gold trending down:Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 8th, 2021.At first, glance, looking at price percentage declines of the gold chart, one could assume silver to be the weaker of the two precious metals in the race to make it into your wealth preservation portfolio.Silver in US-Dollar, weekly Chart, Silver trading sideways:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 8th, 2021.Once comparing the gold chart with the above silver chart, one can see that gold traded in a trending fashion lower since its October 2020 highs, while silver traded sideways. It can be speculated that once inflationary fears spread further, silver will outperform gold by a generous margin.Gold/Silver-Ratio, Monthly Chart, a need to catch up:Gold/Silver-Ratio, monthly chart as of October 8th, 2021.In addition, once the upward direction for the larger time frames is reestablished after a likely crash scenario looming over the markets, silver also needs to catch up. We find a real relationship between the two shiny metals somewhere in the teens and not at excessive levels of 78 right now.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, timing is everything:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 8th, 2021.Now that we have found the preferred speculative vehicle, it is essential to point out that the physical acquisition is the most desirable exposure to this market. We are still in a corrective phase of the precious metal sector. Consequently, patience is key to time one’s purchases. One advantage, the silver investor has is that silver typically follows gold with a slight delay from the larger long-term time frame perspective.A look at the monthly chart above reveals silvers strength. After a stunning move up from March last year from US$ 11.64 to US$ 29.85, prices retraced modestly. Price in relationship to Ichimoku cloud analysis also suggests a bullish continuation. Most significantly, we can see that a volume price analysis over the last fifteen years shows a strong supply zone at US$ 19.80. Where bears get, a breath of air is at the slow stochastic readings near 80 (red line on bottom indicator).Silver is your inflation protector:It is timing that is elusive here. Crash scenarios fall out of the norm. This typically affects charts and clouds a neutral stand and interpretation towards the market. Here, silver shines in its typically lagging behavior regarding entries compared to its brother gold. Most often followed by its explosive follow-through and, as such, bang for the buck. As such, we are keeping a keen eye on the gold prices to lead us to find low-risk entry zones. Noteworthy is also the lower risk of regulative interference from the government of physical ownership in comparison to gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 8th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Plunges Below Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.10.2021 09:00
USDCAD falls through critical floor The US dollar tumbled after weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in September. The pair has struggled to bounce back over the past few weeks. The break below 1.2500, a major demand zone on the daily chart, is the straw that broke the camel’s back. 1.2430 is the next support. And its breach could trigger an extended sell-off towards July’s low at 1.2300. As buyers bail out, high volatility has pushed the RSI into the oversold territory. A bounce is likely to be capped by 1.2600, and it could be an opportunity to sell into strength. XAUUSD attempts bullish reversal Gold surges as a slowdown in the US job market weighs on the US dollar. A bullish candle above the first resistance on the daily chart (1775) has forced the bears to cover their positions, exacerbating the momentum in the process. Now that the selling pressure is out of the way, the bulls may consolidate their gains and build strength for a reversal. The psychological level of 1800 would be the next target. However, an overbought RSI has caused a temporary pullback towards the demand area between 1740 and 1755. GER 40 bounces off major support The Dax 40 rallies as risk sentiment returns. The index has bounced off last May’s lows around 14820. A depressed RSI in this major demand area has attracted solid buying interest. A close above 15200 may have prompted short-term sellers to cover. The bulls will have the challenging task of clearing several resistance levels, the first being 15470 on the 30-day moving average. A pullback may test the psychological level of 15000. Further down, 14820 is a critical floor to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Flirting with Fed Policy Mistake

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.10.2021 15:58
S&P 500 didn‘t like the underwhelming NFPs, but didn‘t collapse either. Orderly reaction to a bad number powerful enough to postpone Fed‘s Nov taper, to be followed by celebration of continued monetary support, or creeping worries about Fed policy mistake in letting inflation become an even bigger problem than it is already? Not that it‘s not set to become one – even the lazy and slow PCE deflator has scored a jump not seen in decades.The doubts are starting to be seen in the pressure on USD – the dollar looks set to swing lower next. Not breaking down, but gradually trending lower. It‘s telling that not even higher yields could power it up over the past week. Tech was relatively resilient, and value didn‘t react much to TLT moves, making me think we‘re in for a brief retracement of the prior downswing in the credit markets. And that includes the soundly beaten HYG – a bit too much, and the corrective move would take VIX even lower to the border of its most recent (and worryingly slowly rising) border.Precious metals should like the inflation spurt, and rising inflation expectations outpacing the nominal yields increase. Real rates (short duration maturities are virtually flat) look to be getting more negative, miners to gold ratio turning, silver to gold ratio rising – good news for the precious metals sector as oil continues its run, and copper presents just one question mark: when it would catch up with other base metals. Cryptos are also set to be doing good when everyone and their brother talks inflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 formed more of a consolidation than a true reversal candle – the volume wasn‘t there, and prices haven‘t moved much. No need to be outrageously bearish unless prices close Thursday‘s gap.Credit MarketsHYG moved down alongside quality debt instruments, but a reprieve wouldn‘t be too surprising here.Gold, Silver and MinersSome life is returning to precious metals, even though it‘s not apparent when looking at gold only. The yellow metal‘s upper knot isn‘t though necessarily bearish, and can be reversed over the nearest week – the key thing is that silver and miners are waking up.Crude OilCrude oil hesitation didn‘t reappear on Friday, and oil stocks continue moving up – the chart remains bullish as there is no hint of follow through selling to heavy volume days with a slight upper knot.CopperCopper continues underperforming both the CRB Index and other base metals, and its upswing appears a question of shortening time. Is silver sniffing out copper awakening soon?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum arte pushing higher after calm weekend trading, look set to be rising and lifting the open profits up! SummaryStocks are likely to pause and recover from Friday‘s inconclusive downswing, and precious metals together with cryptos remain positioned for an upswing as stagflation growingly permeates everyday vocabulary. Fed response, and whether it would be willy nilly made to taper by rising inflation, or whether it misses the boat even more.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

S&P 500 Uphill Battle

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.10.2021 15:46
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity, and credit markets close doesn‘t add to bullish sentiment. High yield corporate bonds led the selling in what turned out a strong risk-off day in debt. Light volume, holiday days often don‘t end up on a weak note, which highlights the challenges the bulls are faced with. Yes, today‘s overnight upswing will likely get tested.Sure, credit market could take the reprieve I was looking for instead of yesterday, today. Would stocks enthusiastically follow through? Value had great trouble yesterday even when faced with rising yields. All that‘s necessary is a spark, and tomorrow‘s CPI is likely to deliver that. I‘m looking for a reasonably hot number that wouldn‘t show the massaged figure‘s further deceleration. Talking numbers powerful enough to make the Fed move – and more importantly to make the markets force the Fed to move – I asked yesterday whether there are:(…) creeping worries about Fed policy mistake in letting inflation become an even bigger problem than it is already? Not that it‘s not set to become one – even the lazy and slow PCE deflator has scored a jump not seen in decades.For perspective, wholesale prices in Germany just jumped over 13% year on year. The increasing doubts would be seen in the pressure on USD – the dollar looks set to swing lower next. Not breaking down, but gradually trending lower. It‘s telling that not even higher yields could power it up over the past week. Whatever the chart pattern it‘s in, the inflation expectations dynamics is likely to catch up with it as real rates will have trouble keeping up. And that‘s a boon in this war of attrition, in this waiting game in precious metals.Meanwhile, commodities aren‘t hesitating, and the shallow intraday oil declines are promptly being bought up. Faced with slowing real economy, even copper is waking up after a long slumber. Bitcoin is around 15% off its all time high. What else to add?Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 reversed on solid volume – not outstanding one, but good enough to leave the medium-term advantage with the bears.Credit MarketsHYG kept plummeting as the session drew to its close, and the credit markets assessment for this week, isn‘t a positive one.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals didn‘t send bullish signals yesterday, but the fireworks can be expected tomorrow. All it takes is a few Fed speakers underplaying the evolution of inflation.Crude OilCrude oil retreated from $82, yet remains perched above $80. Its trading range is likely to remain quite narrow, and a sideways consolidation (consolidation in time) shouldn‘t be surprising.CopperCopper finally having come alive, is a good sign for precious metals as well. It‘s an encouraging sign of daily outperformance.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin is rising while Ethereum pauses – the daily indicators are vulnerable to a consolidation, but overall, the path of least resistance is still up. SummaryStock market rebound will likely run out of steam, and consolidate before the next major move. Odds are that the bears aren‘t done yet – as I often say, it‘s the bond markets that usually have it right, and stocks are more often than not catching up with being on the wrong side. Despite seasonal tendencies to appreciate now, the focus is rightfully on Fed‘s inflation brinkmanship. I view this as Treasuries making the move without waiting for the Fed‘s blessing. Real assets and cryptos stand to benefit as inflation expectations keep trending up.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Gold Can’t Rise on Weak Payrolls

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.10.2021 15:56
The US economy added only 194,000 jobs in September, falling short of expectations, but the Fed can still taper soon — and gold knows it.Another disappointment from the economy! The September nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly weak. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added only 194,000 jobs last month, much below the expectations (analysts forecasted about half a million added jobs). The disappointing numbers followed the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision). The most recent job gains were the weakest since December 2020.However, the overall report was generally more positive than the headline. First of all, the unemployment rate declined from 5.2% to 4.8%, as the chart above shows. It’s a positive surprise, as economists expected a drop to only 5.1%. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed people fell by 710,000 - to 7.7 million. It’s a considerably lower level compared to the recessionary peak, but still significantly higher than before the pandemic (5.7 million and unemployment rate of 3.5%).Second, taking revisions into account, the employment in July and August combined is 169,000 higher than previously reported. It means that the monthly job growth has averaged 561,000 so far this year and about 550,000 over the last three months.Third, the main reason for the very weak nonfarm payrolls was a decline in local and state government education - by 161,000. Most back-to-school-hiring typically occurs in September, but the recruitment last month was lower than usual, which some analysts attribute to early retirement of some teachers, mask-wearing mandates and vaccination requirements. Another issue is that the report is based on data that was collected when the Delta variant of the coronavirus was reaching its peak, and now the situation looks better.Implications for GoldWhat does the recent employment report imply for the Fed’s monetary policy and the gold market? Well, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters during his press conference in September that he would like to see a “reasonably good” or “decent” employment report before deciding that the Fed’s threshold for reducing its asset purchasing program has been met.So, you know, for me, it wouldn’t take a knockout, great, super strong employment report. It would take a reasonably good employment report for me to feel like that test is met. And others on the Committee, many on the Committee feel that the test is already met. Others want to see more progress. And, you know, we’ll work it out as we go. But I would say that, in my own thinking, the test is all but met. So I don’t personally need to see a very strong employment report, but I’d like it see a decent employment report.Now, the question is whether 194,000 job gains are decent enough to taper the quantitative easing. Interpreting words of an oracle is never an easy task. The September payrolls are neither strong nor a catastrophe. However, given the level of expectations and the fact that job gains were weaker than in August (commonly considered a great disappointment) I wouldn’t describe the latest payrolls as “decent”.However, we have to remember that the overall report was much better than the payrolls analyzed in isolation. Given the significant decline in the unemployment rate, the September employment report can be defended as “decent”. So, the Fed can still taper in November, or announce it at least, especially that some members of the FOMC were ready to tighten US monetary policy already in September.It seems that my line of thinking is in line with the market’s interpretation of the Fed’s likely course of action. The price of gold jumped briefly on Friday above $1,780, but it could not break the resistance or hold this position and returned quickly to its recent comfort zone of $1,750-1,760. The rather shy reaction of the yellow metal can be seen on the chart below.Gold’s inability to shine in response to the second weak nonfarm payrolls in a row or to the inflation worries is quite disappointing. Well, Mr. Market decided that the September employment report wouldn’t restrain the Fed from tapering. The focus on the upcoming tightening cycle creates downward pressure on gold prices, which counterweighs worries about the labor market or inflation.However, it might be the case that the price of the yellow metal will bottom somewhere around the actual start of tapering, and, without all that pressure around the tapering announcement, it could be free to move upward again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Awaits FOMC Catalyst

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.10.2021 09:04
GBPUSD tests supply areaThe pound climbs as solid payrolls support the Bank of England’s first post-pandemic interest rate hike.A series of higher highs have prompted sellers to cover their bets. The pair is now testing the supply zone around 1.3650, this was previously major support on the daily chart.Sentiment remains bearish judging by falling moving averages. Strong selling interest could be below 1.3750 as sellers wait to fade the rebound. 1.3550 is the immediate support and its breach would send the sterling back to 1.3420.EURUSD lacks supportThe US dollar consolidates gains as traders await the FOMC Minutes to confirm the tapering in November.The pair has sunk into bearish territory after it broke the daily support at 1.1620. The latest rebound has been capped by the fresh supply area around 1.1585. As the RSI recovered into the neutral zone, short-term trend followers may continue to sell into strength.The psychological level of 1.1500 would be the next target when the current consolidation ends. A deeper correction would drive price action to 1.1400.The UK 100 recovers to major resistanceThe FTSE 100 inched higher after Britain’s unemployment rate fell to 4.5%.The index has met strong buying interest over the key support (6830) on the daily chart. The triple bottom is an indication of the bulls’ commitment to maintaining the uptrend.A surge above 7085 has attracted more attention as the price swiftly recovered above the psychological tag of 7000 once again.A breakout above 7170 would signal a bullish continuation, triggering a runaway rally as those who are patiently waiting on the sidelines bid up.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Punch Bowl Removal

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.10.2021 15:49
S&P 500 intraday upswing fizzled out in spite of credit markets remaining mildly conducive. But tech just couldn‘t and couldn‘t rise, and value remained weak throughout as well. VIX is having trouble declining some more as seen through the last three days‘ lower knots. In short, the TLT upswing standing out in bonds, reveals that risk-off hasn‘t thrown in the towel – fresh S&P 500 downswing looks to be a question of time only. Could it be thanks to a hot CPI print, or will a lower inflation reading bring instead joy that Fed‘s Nov taper might not be coming after all? That‘s the key calculation moving the markets these weeks. Apart from the debt ceiling and $3.5T infrastructe bill, that is.Precious metals look to have an answer, and the pressure to go higher without hesitation, is building up. As said yesterday:(…) All that‘s necessary is a spark, and tomorrow‘s CPI is likely to deliver that. I‘m looking for a reasonably hot number that wouldn‘t show the massaged figure‘s further deceleration. Talking numbers powerful enough to make the Fed move – and more importantly to make the markets force the Fed to move – I asked [Monday] whether there are:(…) creeping worries about Fed policy mistake in letting inflation become an even bigger problem than it is already? Not that it‘s not set to become one – even the lazy and slow PCE deflator has scored a jump not seen in decades.Crude oil is consolidating, and so are cryptos – both in line with my yesterday‘s expectations. What bears significance, is the copper drive lining up with other base metals – the momentum appears returning, and that also bodes well for precious metals.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 weakened yesterday, thanks to heavier selling before the close. More (intraday) chop appears likely before the bears step in again – and they better did so relatively soon so that the daily indicators don‘t carve out bullish divergencies.Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but visibly lagged behind quality debt instruments, leaving a mixed impression. The high volume spells reversal, but there isn‘t enough power to force it higher.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are showing very encouraging signs of life, and follow through higher across the board looks a question of time. Just as I wrote yesterday - the fireworks can be expected Wednesday.Crude OilCrude oil consolidation is here, and the bears can make a move – but don‘t look for miracles and way too low prices any time soon.CopperCopper endured a daily consolidation, and the red metal‘s short-term fate would tell a lot about the unfolding precious metals upswing. The bulls who looked for one more trip to the low 4.20s, can keep a close eye on when the momentum stalls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe expected crypto pause is here, but the bull run continues!SummaryStock market rebound will likely run out of steam, and the elevated CPI reading would add to the bulls‘ woes. No upswing is sticking, credit markets aren‘t raging risk-on, and yields keep forcing Fed‘s hand by preempting the taper announcement – with tech increasingly suffering. Precious metals love the inflation prospects and real rates going more negative. Real assets stand to benefit greatly, and so do cryptos.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Stocks Are Going Sideways, Is This a Month-Long Bear Flag Pattern?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.10.2021 15:55
The S&P 500 index extended its short-term decline yesterday. Is this a new downtrend or still just a correction following last week’s breakout?Stocks went slightly lower yesterday, as the S&P 500 index lost 0.24%. The broad stock market index got back to the 4,350 level. Investors were taking short-term profits off the table following last Thursday’s rally. It looks like a downward correction so far, as the index remains above the late Sep. - early Oct. consolidation. This morning the main indices are expected to open between -0.1% and +0.2% vs. their yesterday’s closing prices. So we may see a consolidation along the mentioned support level of 4,350 following today’s mixed Consumer Price Index number release.The support level is now at around 4,350 and the next support level is at 4,300-4,320, marked by the recent local lows. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,400-4,420. The S&P 500 remains slightly above its month-long downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Dow Jones Remains Relatively WeakerLet’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index remains below its month-long downward trend line. So it is relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The nearest important resistance level is at 35,000 and the support level is at 33,800, among others, as we can see on the daily chart:Apple Is Still At the Crucial $142 Price LevelApple stock weighs around 6.1% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. The stock continues to trade along the $142 price level. And on Monday it bounced from the resistance level of $144.Is It Better to Stay Out Of the Market Right Now?Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market bounced back from the 4,400 level on Monday and now it is trading within a consolidation along the 4,350 level. The support level is at 4,260-4,300, and the downward trend line is at 4,400. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Tuesday, as investors awaited today’s CPI number release, among other factors. It came back to the 4,350 level after bouncing from the 4,400 level once again on Monday. We may see some more short-term uncertainty and the market will most likely extend its almost a month-long consolidation here.The risk/reward perspective seems less favorable right now and no positions are currently justified.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 broke above its consolidation last week, but for now it looks like an upward correction within an over month-long downtrend.We are still expecting more downward pressure and a correction to 4,200-4,250 level.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

Folks, Inflation Ain’t Transitory

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 13.10.2021 16:30
With inflation getting worse, has the Fed woken up? And with the USD looking bright, gold, silver, and mining stocks continue to feel the pinch.By the way, I most recently discussed the short and medium-term outlook for silver in both charts and a Please check them out.With U.S. nonfarm payrolls coming in weaker than expected on Oct. 8, the Fed’s taper timeline was once again in the spotlight. However, with the U.S. unemployment rate falling to 4.8% (versus 5.1% expected) and the weakness mainly driven by a decline in government payrolls (private payrolls increased by 317,000), the lukewarm print should still meet Chairman Jerome Powell’s taper threshold.To explain, July’s data was revised upward by 38,000 (increased for the second time), while August’s data was revised upward by 131,000. As a result, 169,000 more jobs were added than previously reported.Please see below:Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)What’s more, with inflation surging and the “transitory” narrative suffering a slow and painful death, the Fed is having its ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment. For context, I’ve been warning for months that the central bank remains materially behind the inflation curve.I wrote on Apr. 30:With Powell changing his tune from not seeing any “unwelcome” inflation on Jan. 14 to “we are likely to see upward pressure on prices, but [it] will be temporary” on Apr. 28, can you guess where this story is headed next?To that point, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Oct. 12:“I believe evidence is mounting that price pressures have broadened beyond the handful of items most directly connected to supply chain issues or the reopening of the services sector.... Up to now, indicators do not suggest that long-run inflation expectations are dangerously untethered. But the episodic pressures could grind on long enough to unanchor expectations.”More importantly, though, he admitted:“Transitory is a dirty word…. It is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures – mainly the intense and widespread supply chain disruptions – will not be brief. By this definition, then, the forces are not transitory.”And how does this impact his taper timeline?Source: the Financial TimesAlso making the rounds, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida supported the hawkish rhetoric on Oct. 12. Speaking at the Institute of International Finance’s virtual annual meeting, he said that “the risks to inflation are to the upside.” And after conceding that “the big unknown right now is how long it will take for these bottleneck effects to work their way through,” he admitted:Source: ReutersFor context, if the Fed concludes the taper by the “middle of next year,” the timeline is extremely hawkish. To explain why, I wrote on Sep. 23:With ~$120 billion worth of bond purchases poised to hit zero in roughly nine months, the accelerated liquidity drain is extremely bullish for the USD Index.Please see below:To explain, the dark blue line above tracks the pace of the Fed’s taper following its announcement in December 2013, while the orange line above tracks the consensus estimate this time around. However, if you focus your attention on the light blue line, you can see that Powell’s taper timeline pushes QE to zero in advance of both the precedent set in 2014 and the current consensus estimate.On top of that, while the Fed has finally opened its eyes to persistent inflation, the central bank is still operating in the rearview. To explain, while Fed officials seem to agree that tapering is necessary to calm inflation (which we also agree on), at the current rate, the hawkish shift isn’t nearly hawkish enough.For example, while I’ve been sounding the alarm on the cost-push inflationary spiral for months, Brent and WTI prices are now trading north of $80 per barrel and Citigroup said that winter weather could uplift the former to $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter. For context, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are all forecasting $90+ per barrel Brent this year. And while The White House called on OPEC (for the second time) to “do more” (increase supply to reduce oil prices), the cartel has ignored the pleas. As a result, if oil’s upward momentum persists, the Fed is materially underestimating the inflationary impact.Second, while commodity prices remain the most important driver of inflation, even “transitory” factors have leaped to new highs. For context, I wrote on Apr. 16:The Manheim Used Vehicle Index – compiled from a database of more than five million annual used vehicle transactions – increased by 5.87% month-over-month to a record high 179.2 in March. What’s more, the pace of the surge is unlike anything that we’ve ever witnessed before.And after a brief pause – which even we conceded given that abnormally high used car prices should be “transitory” – Manheim revealed that wholesale used vehicle prices “increased 5.3% month-over-month in September” and “brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Index to [a record high] 204.8.”Please see below:In addition, Oshkosh Corporation – an American manufacturer of specialty trucks, military vehicles, truck bodies, airport fire apparatus and access equipment – reduced its full-year revenue and earnings guidance on Oct. 8. The company cited “significant supply chain and logistics disruptions as well as material and freight cost inflation similar to other companies that are beyond the company’s prior expectations.”CEO John C. Pfeifer added:“We implemented multiple price increases in our non-defense segments over the past six to nine months to combat unprecedented raw material inflation and freight cost escalation. Based on current conditions, we expect that our pricing actions will cover our higher input costs. However, due to our backlogs, we do not believe this price catch-up will occur until the end of the second quarter of Calendar 2022. If cost escalation persists, we will take additional pricing actions.”On the other side of the inflationary coin, the NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index on Oct. 12. And while the headline index declined from 100.1 in August to 99.1 in September, wage inflation rose to levels unseen since the 1970s.Please see below:Source: NFIBFurthermore, while “the net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased 3 points to a net 46 percent,” output inflation still remains at a more than 30-year high.Please see below:Source: NFIBFinally, I’ve mentioned on several occasions that the commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) will likely determine when/if the inflationary momentum subsides. For context, its relationship with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains right on trend (follow the black arrow below):And with the headline CPI the most important fundamental data point released today, I wrote on Sep. 15 that “another headline CPI print of roughly 5.25% to 5.75% should hit the wire when the data is released on Oct. 13.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the commodity PPI, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair have a close connection.The bottom line? While the headline CPI remains pinned in the 5%+ range (expected) for now, the metric is still well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. What’s more, with the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) making new highs alongside Brent and WTI, the future impact on the commodity PPI should be material. And if the Fed doesn’t accelerate the liquidity drain and calm commodities’ fervor, we may see a 6% headline CPI print before we see 4%. Conversely, if companies can’t pass through the higher input inflation, the impact on corporate profit margins could upend the general stock market and leave the Fed handcuffed.As a result, whether the Fed accelerates its taper timeline or margin pressures lead to a stock market correction, both outcomes are profoundly bullish for the U.S. dollar. And with the PMs exhibiting strong negative correlations with the greenback, they could suffer materially as the events unfold.In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Oct. 12. However, with the EUR/USD hitting a new 2021 low and the USD Index hitting a new 2021 high, the dollar’s medium-term outlook remains quite bright. Moreover, with the Fed upping the hawkish ante and an accelerated liquidity drain poised to chip away at the PMs, new lows should materialize over the next few months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 14.10.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.10.2021 08:46
USDCHF tests short-term supportThe US dollar eased after the FOMC minutes failed to pinpoint the first rate hike next year. The drop below 0.9280 was a sign of profit-taking after the RSI showed that the rally had overextended.The pair has then found support along the 20-day moving average (0.9220). This is a major level for the bulls to keep the uptrend intact after a short-lived bounce revealed weakness.A bearish breakout would send the pair to 0.9150. A rebound could propel the pair to 0.9400 if it succeeds in absorbing offers around 0.9330.AUDUSD tests key resistanceThe Australian dollar rallied after the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in September. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near 0.7480, a supply zone from the sell-off in early September.The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and its bearish divergence are signs of exhaustion. This has led cautious buyers’ to take some chips off the table with a drop below 0.7335.0.7290 would be the support to monitor in case of a pullback. On the upside, a greater high would pave the way for September’s peak at 0.7460.EURGBP hovers above major supportThe pound inched higher after Britain’s GDP returned to positive territory in August. The euro, on the other hand, has fallen victim to the selling pressure after it broke below 0.8530.Price action is heading to 0.8450, a daily support from the August rally. To the bulls’ relief, the RSI’s divergence shows a slowdown in the bearish impetus.They will need to lift 0.8520 before they could attempt a reversal. Failing that, a breakout below the said floor would trigger an extended sell-off towards 0.8360.
Key Market Shift Confirmed

Key Market Shift Confirmed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.10.2021 11:57
S&P 500 bulls didn‘t look back, and the credit markets spurt at close confirmed. The VIX is getting serious about reaching for early Sep lows, and it shows in the sharp upside reversal of value. The tech upswing hasn‘t been sold into either, and the overall picture is of improving market breadth. Such was my assessment going into yesterday‘s session: (…) So, how far could the bulls make it? 4,420 is one resistance level, and then prior local highs at 4,470 await. The fate of this correction is being decided right there, and it‘s my view we have lower than 4,260 to go still. Therefore, I‘m taking a big picture view, and that is one of continuous inflation surprises to the upside forcing the Fed to taper, which it may or may not do. The policy risks of letting inflation run wild are increasing, so the central bank would find it hard not to deliver fast – the market would consider that a policy mistake. The tone of yesterday‘s FOMC minutes has calmed the Treasury market jitters, and the dollar succumbed. So did inflation expectations, but the shape of the TIP:TLT candle suggests that inflation isn‘t done and out. The Fed is in no position to break it, supply chain pressures, energy crunch and heating job market guarantee that it will be stubbornly with us for longer than the steadily increasing number of quarters Fed officials are admitting to. Counting on the Fed being behind the curve, inflation has the power to derail the S&P 500 bull run – the more so it runs unchecked. The 1970s stagflation brought several wild swings, cutting the index in half as it spent the decade in a trading range. And given the breadth characteristics of the 500-strong index these days, the risks to the downside can‘t be underestimated. What‘s my target of 4,260 in this light? Let‘s consider that from the portfolio point of view – purely stock market traders might prefer to short exhaustion at 4,420 or the approach to 4,470, or balance the short position‘s risk in the stock market with precious metals, cryptos and commodity bets they way I do it – and it‘s working just fine as the precious metals and crypto positions do great while I‘m waiting for retracement in oil and copper (in price or in time). Let‘s check that against the following market performance – bonds aren‘t throwing a tantrum anymore, and continue being pleased by the Fed‘s pronouncements. Inflation expectations haven‘t been revolting over the last three days either. S&P 500 has a great chance of confirming the break back above the 50-day moving average. Neither oil nor copper have offered a reasonably modest retracement of their recent upswings (orderly in the former, stellar in the latter). Reassessing the developments way earlier today (have you already subscribed to enjoy the real-time benefits?) – both from the total portfolio and stock market point of views – has unequivocally led me to join the profitable bullish S&P 500 side (the upswing is likely to easily overcome 4,470s and then 4,510s too) and enjoy the meteoric long copper gains. This represents more conviction behind the still rising tide of accomodative monetary policy (undaunted by the taper prospects, crucially) that is likely to keep positively affecting the open precious metals positions, and further extend the extraordinary crypto gains. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 early stage bullish upswing goes on, and the next two days are likely to confirm – the cyclically sensitive sectors are behaving favorably. That‘s consumer discretionaries, financials and real estate. Credit Markets Quality debt instruments and HYG are rebounding accordingly, and I like particularly the HYG strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold is having trouble overcoming $1,800 but miners and silver are saying the issues are only temporary. Lower volume and lower knot yesterday mean that a brief consolidation is likely ahead. Crude Oil Crude oil consolidation in a very narrow range is likely to give way to price gains extension, if oil stocks are to be taken seriously. Likely, they are to. Copper Copper steep upswing continues unabated, and volume isn‘t drying up. Just as in the CRB Index, the path of least resistance is up – and continued copper outperfomance in the face of downgraded economic growth, is the most encouraging sign. Bitcoin and Ethereum The expected crypto pause came, and is again gone. Fresh highs await, and Ethereum is closer to these than Bitcoin is. Summary Stock market rebound has good odds of extending gains, but the most profitable case is to be made when it comes to commodities, cryptos and precious metals. Finally, if ever so slowly, the truth about no transitory but permanently elevated inflation that I had been hammering since early spring, is being acknowledged by even the Fed officials for what it is – let alone the banking sector. Remember, we‘re getting started, and I wouldn‘t be surprised if 5-7% inflation rates were being the predictable, ongoing result. At the same time, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to force S&P 500 into a bear market, let alone extend the way less than 10% correction just experienced. The path of slowly but surely increasing resistance in the S&P 500 remains up for now as the break above 50-day moving average foretells. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Inflation Peaked Again, Right?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.10.2021 08:32
S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance bodes well for further advances. Financials and consumer discretionaries liked the daily upswing in yields while tech and real estates fared well regardless. VIX is likely to probe even lower values, it seems. So, the open S&P 500 long position is working out well, and will likely continue to do so as higher yields just can‘t help the dollar rise. Inflation expectations are again turning up as we have moved from 1H 2021 Fed saying that inflation was transitory to the current phrase that inflation is transitory, but would last longer than we though. The next stage (arriving latest in Q1 2022) will likely be that inflation is sticky but we have tools to deal with it, followed by putting up a happy face that it‘s a good thing we have inflation after all. Silver will likely keep leading gold, and the nearest target for the gold to silver ratio is 73. Crucially, miners keep confirming the upswing, and the copper example bodes well for silver as both metals are essential for the green economy, talking which means that crude oil is also likely to keep rising. Time to extend the commodity profits even more at a time when crypto gains keep doing great. Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook   S&P 500 again gapped up and closed at daily highs – the path of least resistance remains up. Credit Markets Debt instruments declined across the board, showing that adjusting to unyielding inflation takes precedence over raging approval of growth prospects. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold is having trouble overcoming $1,800, but I‘m looking for it to reverse Friday‘s decline before too long if silver and miners are any clue. Crude Oil Crude oil again continues extending gains while oil stocks confirm – dips are to be bought as $90 look to be taken on still this year. Copper Copper steep upswing was finally sold into, a little. Sideways consolidation of the high gained ground looks to be most probable next, followed by even higher prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum Weekend consolidation of crypto gains continues today, and is likely to give way to the bulls reasserting themselves – further gains are ahead. Summary Stock market rebound is likely to continue once HYG kicks in, and overcome 4,520 as the Fed‘s perceptions management regarding inflation seems to be working – Treasuries have mostly bought it, but I‘m looking for the long end of the curve to do particularly poorly. At the same time, inflation isn‘t yet breaking the stock bull run – new highs are ahead this year still, but the same goes for spending some time then in a trading range. Commodities and precious metals led by silver are best positioned to rise once the Fed moves to the above described fresh rationalization as to why inflation is running so hot. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you,   Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co   * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.10.2021 08:55
EURUSD cuts through resistanceThe euro surges as the market prices in inflation pressure despite the ECB’s dovish message.Bullish candles have pushed the single currency above the triple top (1.1665) which sits on the 30-day moving average, paving the way for a reversal. Strong momentum is a sign of short-covering from those caught on the wrong side of the market.An overbought RSI could temporarily limit the range of the rally. However, renewed optimism may send the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1750. 1.1620 is the support in case of a pullback.USDJPY tests demand zoneThe Japanese yen recouped losses after the BOJ sees a weak yen as positive for Japan’s economy. And the US dollar has come under pressure near a four-year high.An overbought RSI on the daily chart points to an overextension. On the hourly level, the pair has found bids around 113.30 near a previous consolidation range.A bearish breakout would test the round number at 113.00, which lies on the 20-day moving average and is critical in safeguarding the uptrend. The bulls need to lift 114.30 before they may resume the rally.US 30 pulls backs for supportThe Dow Jones consolidates as investors digest earnings near the all-time high.A breakout above the August peak at 35600 and a bullish MA cross from the daily timeframe indicate an acceleration on the upside as the rally continues.Pullbacks could be an opportunity to buy low. An overbought RSI has triggered a minor sell-off below 35600, shaking out weaker hands in the process. A drop below 35450 would lead to the psychological level of 35000. 35830 is now a fresh resistance.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Grinds Key Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Grinds Key Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.11.2021 09:31
USDCHF bounces off demand zoneThe US dollar inched higher after a solid core PCE reading in September. The pair is testing the major demand area from last August’s lows (0.9100).A bearish MA cross on the daily chart has dented buyers’ optimism. An oversold RSI may attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd while short-term sellers take some chips off the table.However, 0.9190 could be a challenging hurdle to lift as the bears would be eager to fade the rebound. A new round of sell-off would send the greenback to the daily support at 0.9020.EURGBP attempts to reboundThe euro found support from better-than-expected growth and inflation data. A bullish RSI divergence suggests that the downtrend may have lost its momentum.A break above 0.8470 has prompted sellers to cover some of their bets. But the RSI’s overbought situation has so far tempered the optimism.The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.8485 which sits on the 30-day moving average before they could turn the tables. Failing that, a drop below the demand zone between 0.8400 and 0.8420 would deepen the correction.GER 40 finds supportThe Dax 40 bounces back thanks to upbeat European stock earnings.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a sign of recovery. Though the index has hit a speed bump at 15775 which is a major resistance from last September’s sell-off.The drop below 15630 has led intraday buyers to bail out, driving short-term price action downward. As the RSI ventured into the oversold zone, the pullback attracted dip-buying interest at the lower range of the previous consolidation (15400). This is a congestion area along the MA cross.
Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower

Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 29.10.2021 15:30
  Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern. The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached New Record! Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index was relatively weaker than the broad stock market recently, as it was still trading below the early September record high of around 15,700. But this week it rallied to the new record highs. The nearest important support level is now at 15,700, marked by the recent resistance level, as we can see on the daily chart: Dow Jones Is Relatively Weaker Again The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached the new record high of 35,892.92 on Tuesday and on Wednesday it sold off to around 35,500. Yesterday the blue-chip index didn’t retrace that decline. The support level remains at around 35,500-35,600, marked by the previous local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Rallied Before Earnings, and Microsoft Went Hyperbolic Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple released its earnings after yesterday’s close and the first reaction was negative. But the stock gained 2.50% at yesterday in regular trading hours. The resistance level remains at $154-156. It is still trading below the record highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Now let’s take a look at the MSFT. It rallied after Tuesday’s quarterly earnings release and on Wednesday it reached the record high price of $326.10. The market remained above its month-long upward trend line. Microsoft extends its long-term hyperbolic move higher. This week it got close to the $2.5 trillion dollar market cap! So the question is how much higher can it get? And it’s already not that cheap at all with its price to earnings ratio of around 40. Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced its Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline yesterday and it got close to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53. For now, it looks like a consolidation following an uptrend. However, the market is still overbought and we may see a bigger downward correction. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Today the main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.8% lower after yesterday’s earnings releases from AAPL and AMZN, and we will likely see an intraday correction. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 got close to the record high yesterday but today it may retrace some of the advance. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 3% or higher correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bitcoin’s trading psychology - 02.11.2021

Bitcoin’s trading psychology - 02.11.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.11.2021 09:49
BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, leg analysis:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of October 25th, 2021.From a pure price perception, it might seem that the consistency bitcoin holds in price bubbles might be of the same origin, but they are not. In 2009, the value of the coin was zero, and fans exchanged it more like reminding of a seedy Star Wars bar exchange of true fans for a new idea, technology, beliefs, and freedom. Even so, bubbles arose a year later, and the price was driven by extreme supply and demand imbalances due to ill-liquidity when news hit the media.Since these times, we have seen all sorts of traders, speculators, investors, banks, hedge funds, governments join the speculation in a profitable market. Each with their specific mindset, interests, and trading psychology. The latest shift is now the race of governments getting a hold on the worldwide dominance reign. They will be true hodlers. Before that last influx, the bitcoin market was dominated by pure speculators for the most part. In a sense, they were forced into this market to stay competitive. Wide swings were the result since there was little incentive to stay in this game for the long term or, in other words, taking the risk on the large downswings.One first step, identifying in which market and cycle one is competing, are comparing up-legs in size (percentage) and steepness (time).The daily chart above shows such measurements of the last two significant moves in bitcoin this year.It has taken bitcoin only three months to more than double in price.BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Projections:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 26th, 2021.With governments and the wider population now being the last to come to the party, we will see a shift in the trading behavior of bitcoin. This needs adjustment in one’s trading style to be part of this craze for the virtual, decentralized future.One such shift in the process may be a reduction of retracements depth within the second leg from a weekly perspective. We have drawn a projection of the second leg highly conservative in the chart above. Conservative, since second legs are typically longer, and we only assumed an identical extension to the first leg (1=2=3 in length and angle). BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, time accuracy:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 26th, 2021.Bitcoins’ childhood days have long passed. Seedy bar purchases have changed for high liquidity and professional exchanges with advanced order execution functionality. The big guns sit on the table, and as such, trading has shaped up. The individual is now playing against the best in the world, like in any other asset class, and risk should be perceived as such.Nevertheless, a larger time frame play for wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation is controllable in risk. Market participation analysis allows for a better grip on what to expect and scales in on targets from a time perspective. The above monthly chart illustrates our view of a possible future. The logarithmic chart shows best what inherent strength bitcoin possesses.Bitcoin´s trading psychology:The largest group that is not invested in bitcoin yet is the more significant part of average citizens. Consequently, we will find ourselves in an extreme supply demand imbalance due to bitcoins fixed limit of 21 million coins. More importantly, we will discover new trading behavior with a new group participating, with new psychology. These purchases will be made by amateurs who are motivated by fear more than greed. This market participant will be a long-term speculator trying to hold on to his investment versus making a quick buck. We anticipate more moderate overall retracements percentagewise. As well, we expect steeper legs up. These will result in a different system needed to participate in a market with low-risk entry points.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver’s fuse is about to be lit

Silver’s fuse is about to be lit

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.10.2021 16:45
The average investor is news-driven. As much as the Federals Reserve  (the Fed) might be criticized, this large investor group is not commonly doubting news. In other words, it has generally believed the Fed’s narrative that inflation is transitory. The bad news is rarely released shortly before Christmas. However, it would not surprise if tapering started in early 2022. And maybe not just begin but be more aggressive throughout the year as expected. With this, the narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation. Therefore, this could easily be the fire to the fuse of the Silver rocket. We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, low-risk entry points: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 30th, 2021. It isn’t only that the overall narrative on transitory inflation is starting to get holes. We like the silver play, for instance because gold is somewhat in the limelight in battle with bitcoin. Consequently, allowing for silver to shine while it is typically in the shadow. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long term bull market. This is a play where everything is coming together. A multi stream both in fundamental and technical edges stack upon each other. As of right now, we have identified four low-risk entry points on the daily silver chart, which are marked in bright green horizontal lines. We would take off 50% of the position near the US$26 mark to mitigate risk (see our quad exit strategy). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, good risk reward ratio: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 30th, 2021. The weekly chart offers a low-risk opportunity as well. We illustrated above a play that assumes an entry point in the lower third quadrant of the yellow marked sideways zone. It would provide for a risk/reward-ratio between 1:1 and 1:2 towards the financing point. As well we assume an exit of half of the position at the top near US$28 of the yellow sideways channel (see our quad exit strategy). With two more exits of each 25% of total trade equity at targets US$34.83 and US$48.72, we find the weekly play to be conducive to our low-risk policy.  Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, favorable probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 30th, 2021. With its most considerable weight, the monthly chart provides the necessary overview. It shows how likely a success rate to a long-term play outcome is. We find three dominant aspects supporting our aim for a bullish long-term play. Trend: The linear regression channel is marked in diagonal lines (red, blue, green). It shows a clearly bullish trend with a high likelihood of continuation. Support: The Ichimoku cloud analysis provides solid evidence of support to the recently established bullish tone in silver. Probabilities: Price highs from 1980 to 2011 built a double top price formation. As a result, it prevented prices from getting higher than the price zone marked with a white box. The third attempt of price reaching this price zone nevertheless has a much higher statistical probability of penetrating this distribution zone and allowing the price to go higher. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit: We find ourselves in challenging times. Certainly, not only in market play. One of the essential pillars to come out ahead is bending in the wind and staying flexible. Should the FED indeed raise interest rates to a degree non-reflected in the anticipated market price of speculators and come as a surprise, we might see a stock market decline next year of a substantial percentage. Consequently, this would temporarily drag silver prices down as well. We share methods in our free Telegram channel to build low-risk positions within the market that reduce risk through partial profit-taking. Our quad exit strategy allows us to hedge physical acquisitions by trading around these positions on smaller time frames in the silver paper market. Our approach provides a way to maneuver through a delicate environment to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Fed Game Plan

Fed Game Plan

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.11.2021 14:54
S&P 500 hesitation against weakening bonds – what gives? The yield curve keeps flattening, but long-dated Treasury yields seem again on the verge of another upswing, which hasn‘t propped up the dollar yesterday much. The only fly in the ointment of a risk-off atmosphere, was value outperforming tech. Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations, which s why: (…) The bears haven‘t thus far made any serious appearance, and 4,550s held with ease in spite of the dollar reversing Thursday‘s losses. All the more encouraging is the relative strength of both gold and silver when faced with one more daily decline in inflation expectations – as if balancing before the Fed act changes anything. I ask, how serious can they be about delivering on taper promises when prices increase relentlessly (look at Europe too), these are being blamed on supply chain bottlenecks without acknowledging their persistent and not transitory nature, and the real economy is markedly slowing down (not in a recession territory, but still)? Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is entering a brief consolidation, with 4,590s being first support, followed by the high 4,550s (if the bears can make it there). Given though yesterday‘s sectoral rotation, that‘s not likely happening today. Credit Markets HYG keeps acting really weak, volume is picking up, and buyers aren‘t able to force at least a lower knot. Rising yields aren‘t reflecting confidence in the economic recovery, but arrival of stagflation bets. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold indeed swung higher, but needs more follow through including volume, otherwise we‘re still waiting for the catalysts mentioned at the opening part of today‘s analysis, which would also help the silver to gold ratio move higher. Crude Oil Crude oil keeps going up again,and is likely to extend gains above $84 even as this level presents a short-term resistance. Copper Copper buying opportunity is still here, and the red metal is primed to play catch up to the CRB Index again. Probably not so vigorous as before, and taking more time to unfold, but still. Bitcoin and Ethereum The Bitcoin and Ethereum upswings can and do go on – as stated yesterday, it was a question of a relatively short time when cryptos are done with the sideways correction. Summary S&P 500 is likely to pause today, and the bond market performance would be illuminating. Ideally for the bulls, some semblance of stabilization would occur, tipping the (bullish) hand for tomorrow. That‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be disappointing, and eventually reversed. Cryptos, commodities (first oil, then copper) would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Lip Service to Inflation, Again

Lip Service to Inflation, Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.11.2021 14:54
S&P 500 quick downswing attempt indeed didn‘t come – fresh highs were confirmed by bonds. Even if just on a daily basis, that‘s where the bias is – long stocks still, but with a wary eye as Treasuries and corporate bonds need to kick in on a more than daily basis. I‘m taking it as that the bullish expectations for today are really high – so much so that better than expected non-farm employment change resulted in a sell the news reaction. So, how does that line up with today‘s FOMC? Dovish undertones are obviously expected – at least in attempting to sweep the hot inflation under the rug, spinning it somehow else than with the tired transitory horse. Discredited one too. So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. Let‘s recall my yesterday‘s words about how that‘s likely to translate into market moves: (…) Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations. Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. The Fed turning even more dovish than expected, would light the fireworks – they‘re likely to pay lip service to inflation similarly to Jun, but it won‘t pack the same punch. Inflation expectations haven‘t peaked, and the yield curve is about to steepen again as rates would mostly be moving higher. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps rising, and is setting itself up for a brief disappointment. We aren‘t though making a top with capital t. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market, on volume that didn‘t disappoint, which just confirms the bulls‘ overall technical advantage. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing left a lot to be desired – we aren‘t likely staring at a true slide next. I actually look for silver (and the cyclically sensitive commodities such as copper, and also oil) to outperform gold in the wake of the Fed move. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t move much on a closing basis, but the bulls need more time to retake the reins. Copper Copper really doesn‘t want to decline, and remains slated to play catch up to the CRB Index again. The improving bullish outlook requires just time now – selling volume is drying up, tellingly... Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls haven‘t yielded, and keep the overall technical advantage. Should prices dip below $58K in BTC without solid buying materializing, now that would make me wary. But the Fed won‘t be hawkish., no. Summary Potential S&P 500 bear raid is approaching, and the more dovish the Fed would be, the shallower dip in stocks can be expected. Yes, the bulls keep having the upper hand – credit markets have behaved. As mentioned yesterday, that‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be reversed higher. Cryptos, oil, copper would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later – unless the Fed negatively surprises, in which case cryptos would be prone to wilder swings (but not downside reversal in earnest). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Bounce Back

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Bounce Back

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.11.2021 08:38
EURUSD claws back lossesThe US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve called for patience on raising interest rates.The pair has met strong resistance at 1.1690, a previous demand zone on the daily chart that has turned into a supply one. The latest sell-off has been contained by 1.1535, near the base of the recent rebound as an oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters.A surge above the intermediate resistance of 1.1620 would bring in more momentum traders. Then a break above 1.1690 could kickstart a bullish reversal in favor of the euro.XAUUSD tests resistanceGold recovers as the US dollar softens across the board following a neutral FOMC.Price action had previously struggled to clear the supply area around 1810, the origin of the September correction. The subsequent fall below the support at 1785 has prompted buyers to take profit.However, the RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught buyers’ attention at the daily support at 1760. 1785 is the hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout would resume the recovery. Failing that, the bears may push towards 1740.USOIL falls back for supportWTI crude slipped after the EIA reported a larger increase in US inventories. The psychological level of 85.00 has been an effective hurdle so far.The previous fall below 81.00 has put the bulls on the defensive, especially after their failure to achieve a new high above 84.70. This is a confirmation that sentiment has grown cautious after the price’s recent vertical ascent.The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart could call for a pullback. 79.50 is the closest support. Its breach may send the price to 76.50.
Crude Eyeing OPEC+ Meeting – Where is Oil Headed?

Crude Eyeing OPEC+ Meeting – Where is Oil Headed?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 03.11.2021 15:32
With the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, oil looks to be in a corrective phase, as pressure is on for more crude. Are we looking at bearish winds ahead? Crude oil prices have started their corrective wave, as we are approaching the monthly OPEC+ group meeting on Thursday, with some market participants now considering the eventuality of a larger-than-expected rise in production. U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks, American Petroleum Institute (API) via Investing.com Regarding the API figures published Tuesday, the increase in crude inventories (with 3.594 million barrels versus 1.567 million barrels expected) implies weaker demand and is normally bearish for crude prices. Meanwhile, in the United States, the average price of fuel stabilized on Tuesday after several weeks of increase, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), however, that’s 60% higher than a year ago. Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, we are now getting some context on how the oil market might develop in the forthcoming days, with some crucial events to monitor as they could have a strong impact on the energy markets, and particularly on the supply side. My entry levels for Natural Gas were triggered on Monday (Nov.1), and I’m updating my WTI Crude Oil projections. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Leading the Taper Run

Leading the Taper Run

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.11.2021 15:02
No S&P 500 pause to speak of – bonds support the buying pressure. The broad turn to risk-on has value holding up relatively well while tech remains in the driver‘s seat. The daily weakness in financials looks misleading, and as a function of retreat in yields – I‘m looking for stabilization followed by higher prices. Real estate though is starting to smell a rat – I mean rates, rising rates. Slowly as the Fed didn‘t give the green light, but they would acommodate the unyielding inflation.There was something in the taper announcement for everyone – the hawks are grasping at the possibility to increase taper pace should the Fed start to deem inflation as unpleasantly hot. I wrote about the dovish side I take already on Wednesday when recapping my expectations into the meeting.Coupled with non-farm payrolls coming in above expectations, the table is set to reassure the stock bulls that further gains are possible while the lagging commodities move up. Precious metals would continue recovering from the pre-taper anxiety, and miners with copper kicking back in, would be the confirmation. The dollar should welcome the figure corresponding to yields increase, buying a little more time.One more note on oil – its downswing is positive for the stock bulls as its retreat works to increase disposable income, and in the zero rates environment, kind of acts as a shadow Fed funds rate. Regardless, I‘m standing by the call for triple digit oil prices in 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 fireworks are continuing with improving participation, and the path of least resistance remains higher.Credit MarketsUniversal risk-on move in the credit market still continues, and the long HYG knot isn‘t a sign of a reversal – the bulls merely got ahead of themselves, that‘s all.Gold, Silver and MinersGold easily reversed the pre-taper weakness, and so did silver. I‘m now looking for the miners to catch up, and a good signal thereof would be a fresh commodities upswing. No, CRB Index hasn‘t peaked.Crude OilCrude oil hasn‘t peaked either, and appears attracting buying interest already. While $80 were breached, the commodity is getting ahead of itself on the downside – the oil sector doesn‘t confirm such weakness.CopperCopper has stabilized in the low 4.30s, and an upswing attempt is readying – its underperformance of CRB Index would get reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation goes on, and nothing has changed since yesterday – stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next.SummaryS&P 500 stands to benefit from real economy revival, earnings projections and taper being conducted in the least disruptive way, apparently. Credit markets have made up their mind, and aren‘t protesting the risk-on sentiment, which has come from a temporary commodities retreat (hello, China). Inflation worries should though still return to the fore as the rising rates aren‘t as much a result of improving economy and yield spreads, which the precious metals are sensing already.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold FINALLY Breaks Free Amidst S&P INSANITY

Gold FINALLY Breaks Free Amidst S&P INSANITY

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 08.11.2021 08:13
Gold, after 18 weeks of being stuck in a maniacal Short trend without price really going anywhere, FINALLY broke the bonds of the M word crowd by flipping to Long -- but not without a mid-week scare: more later on that affair. But we begin by assessing the stark INSANITY besetting the parabolic performance of the S&P 500, +25% year-to-date. It settled yesterday (Friday) at 4698 (reaching 4718 intra-day), a record closing high for the seventh consecutive session. Such phenomenon has occurred but five other times in the past 41 years! So here's a multiple choice question for you: Ready? Across all those years (i.e. from 1980-to-date), what is the longest stretch of time between all-time highs for the S&P 500? â–  a) eight monthsâ–  b) just over three yearsâ–  c) slightly less than six yearsâ–  d) all of the above (for you WestPalmBeachers down there)â–  e) none of the above If having answered "e)", you are correct: the longest stint was almost seven-and-one-quarter years from 24 March 2000 through the DotComBomb up to 13 Jul 2007. 'Twas the complete antithesis of the current paradigm of an all-time high every single trading day. But wait, there's more: those of you who were with us way back in the days at AvidTrader may recall our technically having "mild", "moderate" and "extreme" readings of both oversold and overbought conditions for the S&P. Well, get a load of this: yesterday was the S&P's 12th consecutive day with an "extremely overbought" reading. During these 41 years, that has only happened once before, 36 years ago in 1985. And the price/earnings ratio then was a respectable 10.5x: today 'tis five times that much at 54.4x (!!!) easily more than double the S&P's lifetime median P/E (since 1957) of 20.4x. And still more: Every time the S&P moves from one 100-point milestone to the next, 'tis a FinMedia "big headline deal", albeit the percentage increase comparably narrows. Nonetheless, trading gains and losses are measured by the point, not the percentage. And from 1980-to-date, the S&P has gone from 100 to now 4700, (i.e. through 46 milestones. Upon having just achieved the 4600 level on 29 October, the average number of trading days over these past 41 years to reach each 100-point milestone is 236 (just about a year's worth). But now from 4600-4700 took just five days! Cue John McEnroe: "You canNOT be SERious!!" 'Course, every trend reaches a bend, if not its end. And whilst the market is never wrong, something will the S&P upend. You regular readers already know the "earnings are not there" to support even one-half the S&P's current level. Moreover, 'tis said when the Federal Open Market Committee does nudge up its Bank's Funds rate, 'twill be "Game Over" for the S&P, (something of which the Fed is very fearful). "But mmb, even a rise from just 0.25% to only 0.50% maintains a really low rate..." Nominally still low, yes Squire: but upon it occurring, the Fed shall have doubled the cost for every bank that comes to the borrowing window, from which one can then ask banking clientele: "How's that variable rate loan workin' out for ya?" And thus falleth the first domino. And the S&P. Have a great day. Gold had a great day yesterday in settling out the week at 1820. But as noted, 'twas not before a mid-week scare. With Gold wallowing on "The Taper of Paper" Wednesday -- down at 1758 (a three-week low) -- the tried-and-true, widely followed daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossed to negative. Such previous 11 negative crossings had averaged downside follow-through of 86 points. Thus within that technical vacuum, another run sub-1700 was placed on Gold's table. What instead followed was a one-day whipsaw, Gold's MACD finishing the week with a positive cross, and even better, the weekly parabolic Short trend FINALLY being bust per the first Gold-encircled dot in our weekly bars graphic: FINALLY too Gold had its first Friday in five of not being flogged ostensibly by the M word crowd. Should they thus have left the building, in concert with both the daily MACD back on the positive side and the weekly parabolic again Long, the door is open for Gold to glide up into the 1900s toward concluding 2021. As for the five primary BEGOS Markets, here are their respective percentage tracks from one month ago (21 trading days)-to-date, the S&P having swiftly replaced Oil as the leader of the pack. Of more import, note the rightmost bounce for Gold and the Bond. Why are those two stalwart safe havens suddenly getting the bid? (See our opening commentary on S&P INSANITY): Meanwhile as we waltz into the waning two weeks of Q3 Earnings Season, of the S&P's 505 constituents, 426 have reported (450 is typically the total within the seasonal calendar), of which 340 (80%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q3 of a year ago when much of the world purportedly was "shut down". Thus such significant improvement was expected: "They better have bettered!" Yet as noted, our "live" P/E is at present 54.4x. Thus to bring earnings up to snuff such as to reduce the P/E to its lifetime median of 20.4x, bottom lines need increase by 167%: but the median year-over-year increase (for those 396 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is only 19%. Thus for those of you scoring at home, a 19% increase is nowhere near the "requisite" 167%. "Look Ma! Still no earnings!" (Crash). Still earning to grasp good grace is the track of the Economic Barometer, which bopped up a bit on the week's headline numbers. To be sure, October's Payrolls improved with a decline in the Unemployment Rate and a jump in the Institute for Supply Management's Services Index. But with a return of folks to the workplace (excluding those who've post-COVID decided they don't need to work) came a plunge in Q3's Productivity combined with a spike in Unit Labor Costs. As well, October's growth in Hourly Earnings slowed and the Average Workweek shortened, such combination suggesting temporary jobs materially lifted the overall Payrolls number. Also less highlighted was September's slowing in Factory Orders, shrinkage in Construction Spending, and the largest Trade Deficit recorded in the Baro's 24-year history. Here's the whole picture from one year ago-to-date with the S&P standing up straight: To our proprietary Gold technicals we go, the two-panel graphic featuring price's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with the 10-day Market Profile on the right. And note the "Baby Blues" of linear regression trend consistency being abruptly stopped in their downward path thanks to Friday's "super-bar" -- Gold's best intra-day low-to-high run in nearly four weeks -- and the highest closing price since 04 September. As well in the Profile, price sits atop the entire stack, which you'll recall for the prior two weeks was at best a congestive mess. But to quote Inspecteur Clouseau, "Not any moooure...": As for Silver, she's not as yet generating as much comparable excitement. At left, her "Baby Blues" continue to slip even as price gained ground into week's end. At right, the price of 24 clearly is her near-term "line in the sand". Still, our concern a week ago of her falling into the low 22s has somewhat abated, albeit the daily parabolic trend remains Short; however a quick move to 24.700 ought nix that condition. "C'mon, Sister Silver!": So there it all is. We see Gold as poised to FINALLY move higher toward year-end, (barring a resurgence of the M word crowd). And we see the S&P as poised for its off-the-edge-of-the-Bell-curve INSANITY to cease, (barring an economic erosion that instead furthers the flow of free dough). After all, bad is good, just as Gold is always good. In that spirit to conclude for this week, here are three good bits from a few of the smartest (so we're told) people in the world: Betsey "With an e" Stevenson says with respect to folks not returning to the workforce post-COVID that "...It’s like the whole country is in some kind of union renegotiation..." That is True Blue Michigan-speak right there. But think about it: when you've got a) the upper labor hand, and b) the aforementioned free dough that you popped into the stock market to thus gain some 38% since the economy first shutdown, why work, eh? Besides, the feeling of marked-to-market wealth is a beautiful thing. Elon "Spacey" Musk now notes that Tesla has not contracted with Hertz to sell 100,000 four-wheel batteries. Recall when that deal first was announced, the price of TSLA went up many times more than the additional incremental return of the transaction. But hardly has it since retracted. 'Course, the company's Q3 earnings were "fantastic", in turn nicely bringing down the stock's P/E to just now 345.8x. And comparably as you already know, the only other two S&P 500 constituents classified as being in the sub-industry category of "Automobile Manufacturers" are Ford (P/E now 26.1x) and General Motors (P/E now 7.7x). But a shiny object that rolls, too, is a beautiful thing. Peter "Techie" Thiel has just opined that the soaring price of bits**t is indicative of inflation being at a "crisis moment" for the economy. 'Tis not ours to question this notion; rather 'tis beyond our pay grade to understand it. What we do understand is that THE time-tested (understatement) indicator and mitigator of inflation -- i.e. Gold -- is priced at such an attractively low level versus where it "ought" be (i.e. 3981 per our opening graphic's decree), that never again such a beautiful opportunity shall we see! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
Target Hit! Another Successful Call on Natural Gas

Target Hit! Another Successful Call on Natural Gas

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 05.11.2021 15:10
  Have you ever tracked your progress during your oil and gas trading journey and seen such trades? Read on… and come aboard! In the previous edition published last week and updated on Monday, I projected the likelihood of a sturdy support level on the gas market – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures – for going long around the $5.268-5.361 zone (yellow band), with a relatively tight stop just below $5.070 and targets at $5.750 and $5.890. So, the market indeed sank just below that band to trigger an entry on Monday, and then it was suddenly pushed back up by the bulls waiting to take over the price to the upward direction. This long trade was also supported by the fundamentals, as the heating needs for the month of November were gradually increasing. The weather forecasts appeared to orientate the demand upwards backed by an uninterrupted demand for Liquefied Natural gas (LNG) US exports. Then, Nat-Gas hit the first target at $5.750 on Wednesday, and stopped at the $5.876 mark – located just $0.014 below the second projected target at $5.890 – on Thursday! Regarding Crude Oil, a new entry, provided to our premium subscribers on Wednesday has just being triggered. The black gold is now attempting to rebound onto that support, which acts as a new floor. Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In conclusion, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports - natural gas recently offered multiple opportunities to take advantage of dips onto those projected levels. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium Section. Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Meaning Of The Bull Market - The Opposition To The Bear One

Where‘s the Beef?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.11.2021 15:18
S&P 500 embraced the dovish taper - $10bn a month pace gives the Fed quite a breathing room without having to revisit the decision unless markets force it to. The taper is as dovish as can be, with rate raising escaping attention. Talk of no rocking the boat, for the markets, economy and fiscal policy initiatives just can‘t do without. The more dovish scenario of my yesterday‘s presentation came true: (…) So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. The initial reaction has been very positive in stocks, and overly weak in precious metals and commodities. The real assets downswings are though being reversed in line with my Tuesday‘s expectations – and in today‘s premarket tweets on the unfolding price moves. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rose without any brief disappointment – the top with capital t clearly isn‘t in, so don‘t think about standing in the bulls‘ way much. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market continues, and the sectoral reaction to rising Treassury yields is a very positive one. Bonds and stocks are obviously seeing through the taper fog. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold was afraid of the hawkish outcome, which had zero real chance of happening – and miners spurted higher decisively first. Let‘s see the initial and misleading weakness in real assets being reversed, one by one – and silver do great again. Crude Oil Crude oil has likewise flashed extraordinary weakness – one to be reversed with vengeance. The Fed can‘t print oil, and the energy crunch goes on as nothing has changed yesterday for black gold. Copper Copper gyrations don‘t change the fact the red metal is ready to swing higher next. Just wait for its reaction when broader strength returns to the CRB Index – we won‘t have to wait too long. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t been jubilant about the dovish news, but haven‘t come down beforehand either. Stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next. Summary S&P 500 benefited the most from the taper message delivery, and the bulls keep having the upper hand – with increasing confirmation from the credit markets. The very initial reaction to taper announcement – namely its bearish anticipation – is indeed being reversed higher within commodities and precious metals. No tantrum, no rocking the boat – and asset prices are going to love that. Get ready for rising yields that would gradually stop underpinning the dollar – patience with the latter. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

Ethereum reaches new all time high

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.11.2021 12:21
Ethereum reaches new all time high Moods in cryptocurrency markets have improved after positive news emerged from Asia and following the solid performance of Bitcoin, which closed October with the highest monthly gain in 2021, further boosting investor confidence. The second biggest cryptocurrency by market cap has now also managed to reach a new all time high with Ethereum breaking above the previous high and reaching a new one after gaining over 3% as the majority of coins appear to be rising. While it is unclear whether this move will continue, today's achievement could further boost confidence in the current market as it comes after an updated prediction of Ethereum by Goldman Sachs which projected the coin reaching $8000 before the end of the year. Furthermore, prospects for a potential Ethereum ETF after the approval and launch of Bitcoin ETFs appears to be a possibility in the near future, which in turn continues to point towards increased adoption of the new blockchain technologies along with a wider appeal of this type of asset as more investors shift towards the space.   BP announce positive quarter and boost share buyback BP announced another quarter of positive results, indicating rising commodity prices and improving conditions as main drivers for the company's continued growth. The company also announced an expansion of its ongoing share buyback program by adding a further $1.25billion which will be adding to the $1.4billion already executed in the first half of the year. While net debt remains a key area of concern, totalling around $32billion, investors may look favourably on today's report as it highlights the companies resilience and adaptability along with it's prioritization of cash flow to strengthen its financial position as future prospects of rising oil prices driven by increased demand and limited supply could also potentially improve the outlook, particularly for the next quarter. Download our Mobile Trading App:   Google Play   App Store
Silver, patience pays

Silver, patience pays

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.11.2021 08:13
Here is what you should consider when asking why it isn’t trading even higher. First, after an initial up-leg like this, a trend is set in motion, but it is just the beginning of a trend. It needs time to develop. Most of the reasons debated this year when silver stepped into the limelight were the reasons the traders anticipated fueling the first leg. A big part is that it takes time until the public digests the market, which is ahead of reality, a speculative prognosis on how the future might look. There is a trickle-down effect until silver can build up its second leg. From an active market speculator perspective, inflation is real, but years can pass until the crowd realizes what is going on. Then gold needs to move, which in turn awakens silver with a delay. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bull as bull can be: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The monthly gold chart above shows the strong bullish trend in gold over the last twenty years. Telltales are a higher high in 2020 versus 2011, and the price strength since. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, getting ready: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly chart has just come alive to an exciting inflection point. A closer look reveals that price has successfully built a second leg from the US$1,680 double bottom price zone (yellow lines). The upcoming weeks should show if a double triangle formation (red lines) was severed now that the price is trading above POC support of a fractal volume study (white line). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, looking good: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly silver chart is bullish as well. Bulls have successfully defended the yearly range lows zone (slim white box). They mutually are attacking an overhead resistance with quite some might, and upcoming weeks might find price successful in that attempt. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, history as a guide: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The above monthly chart shows an excellent example of how much patience is needed to earn significant profits from a silver investment. In this case, silver initiated a range break in 1973, where prices tripled within a year. Much like silver’s recent move from March last year to the current top in February this year. It showed a similar percentage move. This first leg of a bullish trend required more than three years of investor’s patience before the second leg was initiated. Those patient enough to hold on were rewarded with a near thousand percent price increase.   Silver, patience pays: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”Nothing has changed in the last hundred years about the principle value of this quote by Edwin Lefèvre (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, published in 1923). We are used to active participation in a process to earn one’s wages. In this aspect however, the market is counterintuitive. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” Lefèvre again points towards patience and a state of inactivity being just right in market play. We find the last phase of silver in a sideways range if anything is encouraging to a substantial second leg up in the making, It will therefore reward the patient owner of his physical holdings. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
The Moonshot Fizzled Out, Inviting Sellers Again

The Moonshot Fizzled Out, Inviting Sellers Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.01.2021 16:13
The reflexive rebound slowly but surely lost steam, rolling over into the close. The decline continued in the overnight session before a 3720-ish floor was established, indicating that the stock bulls are not yet out of the woods. It was indeed a good idea to take open long profits off the table yesterday for a quick 22-point gain in the S&P 500. Earlier, I called for a reflexive bounce post the Wednesday selloff, followed by some sideways trading. Let‘s look at the charts, and update the unfolding game plan – would the charts still support stabilization as the most probable outcome over the next few sessions? In short, the probability of more downside rather than selling having stopped, has increased (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook The sellers stepped in as the session approached the closing bell, and the daily volume was still lower than Wednesday‘s one. Not too shabby, but lower. My takeaway is that the selling hasn‘t ended yet as it‘s the bears‘ turn now. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) retreated even more on a daily basis, almost revisiting the opening gap. That makes it impossible for me to present a short-term bullish case to you. Especially given that investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) weakened – that would be expected if long-term Treasuries weakened as well (they did), but its the interplay of the three that warrants caution to me. High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) are still faring much better than stocks, highlighting that we‘re in a risk-off environment right now, where even utilities (XLU ETF) or consumer staples (XLP ETF) have a hard time keeping up their daily gains. Here they are, long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF). They have declined, right – but this move lower is a bit too moderate for my taste, and instead favors them to trade sideways to higher over the next few sessions. Such a move would be supported by the daily indicators as well, and stocks would have it tougher to score gains simultaneously. Market Breadth, Volatility & Tech I am not dazzled by the advance-decline line, and rather pay attention to the tame advance-decline volume, and the warning inability of new highs new lows to recover at all. A bit more time and substance is needed for the price recovery to play out. Volatility retreated but such a prior spike means that we aren‘t going to 25-26 range just right away. While the gyrations both ways aren‘t over yet, they are calming down. Technology (XLK ETF) retreated to where it opened, and wasn‘t among the best performing sectors. Financials (XLF ETF) and healthcare (XLV ETF) did better, and the same goes to a large degree for the emerging bull market trio of materials (XLB ETF), industrials (XLI ETF) and energy (XLE). Gold in the Spotlight Daily reversal on rising volume that has a coiled spring feel to it. The daily indicators are relatively undecided though, and don‘t rule out another push to the downside. Still, the overwhelming character of this market is sideways for now, and should a bear raid come, it would have to prove its staying power first. The medium-term picture naturally remains bullish just as I laid the case for it both on Monday and Wednesday. Summary Having approached Wednesday‘s gap, the S&P 500 rally fizzled out yesterday. Pointing lower in the premarket, today‘s session is shaping up to be one of bottom searching and attempts to gain the upper hand by both the buyers and the sellers. It‘s that the market internals aren‘t at their strongest exactly, while volatility hasn‘t died down sufficiently, and Treasuries appear ready for a short-term upside surprise too. Make no mistake though, the stock bull market isn‘t over and this is not the start of a significant correction. Just remember my Monday‘s article, and brace yourself for a weak February. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and the upcoming Gold Trading Signals.   * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Let's talk about Dax...

Let's talk about Dax...

Jason Sen Jason Sen 02.11.2021 10:55
Dax December hit our buying opportunity at 15580/530 with stops below 15500 but over ran to 15483. I am hoping you held on for the bounce to 15620 & 15670, with prices reaching 15715 EuroStoxx 50 December finally hit the next target of 4245/50 with a high for the year at 4254. FTSE 100 December unfortunately longs at first support at 7225/15 were stopped below 7200 & then we missed best support at 7160/40 by 8 ticks. Video analysis: Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax longs at 15580/530 (if you managed to hold the position) hit the target of 15700/750. Further gains are expected at the start of the towards 15950/16000. Downside is likely to be limited with minor support at 15630/10. If we continue lower try longs at 15500/500 with stops below 15470. (Targets are 15620, 15670, 15750). EuroStoxx finally hit the next target of 4245/50 as we look for 4265/69. If we continue higher look for 4295/99. Try longs at 4225/15 with stops below 4200. FTSE crawls slowly higher in volatile conditions - certainly making it tough to hold a long on Friday. Still, downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 7200/7180. Best support at 7155/45. Longs need stops below 7130. Above 7240 targets 7260 then 7290/99.
Trading Oil & Gas: Some Spicy MLPs to Choose From!

Trading Oil & Gas: Some Spicy MLPs to Choose From!

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 12.10.2021 16:00
 Let’s focus on less-popular securities to trade energies today: Master Limited Partnership (MLP). How do they work and how can they be profitable? By the way, a big “thank you!” goes to Simon, one of our readers, who asked us about this last Friday. Feel free to send us your questions or any topics that you would like us to write about in the forthcoming editions, and we’ll try our best to answer them! Note: Trading positions are available to our premium subscribers. A good way to diversify the construction of your oil and gas investment portfolio is to use a variety of assets for balanced exposure to the energy sector and its industrial components. What Is a Master Limited Partnership (MLP)? To learn in detail what a MLP is, we invite you to read the following articles that already contain the necessary basic information you need to know before starting investing in them. Master Limited Partnership (MLP), Investopedia.com The Benefits of Master Limited Partnerships, Investopedia.com Key Reason for Going Into Those Alternative Investments The most important advantage is the high-income potential. Indeed, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) typically pay high yields to investors, mainly due to the fact that they do not pay corporate income taxes. Stock Watchlist (Continued) In the first article about alternative investments, we started a watchlist with some major energy stocks. Today, let’s update it! As usual, our stock-picks will be shared through this link to our dynamic watchlist (which will be included in the position from now on). It will be updated from time to time as we progress through our portfolio construction process. Take a look below at a few examples of some indicative metrics: Today we picked five oil and gas Master Limited Partnership (MLP) companies that are quoted on the US exchange. Their revenues are as stated below: Revenue (in billion US dollars): Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) $26.67B Energy Transfer LP (ET) $38.95B Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) $2.37B MPLX LP (MPLX) $8.51B Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) $23.59B In summary, those alternative investments may present stable benefits and diversify your energy portfolio… So, what MLPs do you guys trade? I’ve already selected mine, as well as the exact positions associated with them. All of this (and much more!) can be found in my premium Oil Trading Alerts. As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers, well-informed. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Struggles For Support - 05.11.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Struggles For Support - 05.11.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 05.11.2021 08:51
GBPUSD tests key floor The pound plummeted after the Bank of England held interest rates against expectations. The plunge below the daily support at 1.3570 has caught buyers off guard. Those who bet on a rebound around 1.3600 have rushed to the exit, raising volatility in the process. The September low at 1.3430 would be the next target. An oversold RSI may attract some buying interest, though buyers might be cautious to avoid catching a falling knife. The supply zone between 1.3640 and 1.3700 could keep the sterling under pressure. USDJPY consolidates gains The US dollar consolidates recent gains as traders digest the start of the Fed’s taper. The pair is seeking support around the 20-day moving average after a parabolic rise sent it to a four-year high. An overbought RSI from the daily chart is a sign of exhaustion and traders may be reluctant to push higher. The greenback has found bids along the demand zone over 113.30. The bulls need to clear the fresh hurdle at 114.45 before they could resume the uptrend. A bearish breakout would trigger a sell-off towards 112.50. US 500 grinds to new highs The S&P 500 continues to climb as the Fed deliberately leaves rate hikes off the table. The rally has gained momentum after the index cleared the previous peak at 4550. Sentiment remains bullish, but an overbought RSI in the daily timeframe may call for a pause. Overextension is also on the hourly chart as the RSI repeatedly ventures above 70. The bulls are pushing towards the psychological level of 4700. 4620 on the 30-hour moving averages may attract trend followers’ bids in case of a pullback.
USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today

USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today

Jason Sen Jason Sen 02.11.2021 10:50
USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today. EURJPY up one day, down the next day in the sideways trend for over a week. Becoming more erratic & therefore difficult to trade. CADJPY also more random & more erratic last week, although shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 work again yesterday with a 70 pip profit offered this morning. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY first support again at 113.40/30. Longs need stops below 113.20 so the risk is very small. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 113.00/112.90 & 112.60/50 for profit taking on shorts. Longs at 113.40/30 target 113.80/90. We should pause here but further gains meet minor resistance at last week's high of 114.25/30. Strong resistance at the October high of 114.50/70. Shorts need stops above 114.80. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. EURJPY first support at 131.60/40, stop below 131.35. A break lower is a sell signal initially targeting 130.90 & we could hold here initially, maybe even bounce to 131.40/50. Further losses meet an important buying opportunity at 130.40/20 with stops below 130.00 First resistance at 132.20/30 . Above 132.40 can target 132.90, perhaps as far as strong resistance at October's high of 133.30/50. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 worth a try again targeting 9200 & 9175 (hit as I write). A buying opportunity at 9120/00 with stops below 9090. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 9240/60. However a break higher retests October's high at 9295/9305. Emini S&P December on the way to the next target of 4625/35 this week. Longs at first support at 4590/85 starting to work. Nasdaq December closed at the new all time high at 159864 keeping the outlook positive for this week as we hit the next target of 15900/950. Emini Dow Jones December making a clear break above the all time high at 35540/550 for a buy signal as we hit the next target of 35800/850 & now look for 36000/100. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P longs at first support at 4590/85 are expected to target 4625/35 but a high for the day is likely if tested today. Shorts are very risky of course in the bull trend. A break above 4645 is the next buy signal. First support at 4590/85. Longs need stops below 4575. Strong support at 4545/35. Longs need stops below 4525. Nasdaq December now expected to target 15900/950 (hit yesterday) & now 16050/080. Downside is expected to be limited ion the bull trend with first support at 15780/750. Stop below 15720. A break lower targets 15670 with strong support at 15580/540. Longs need stops below 15500. Emini Dow Jones December now targeting 35800/850 & 36000/100, even as far as 36250/280. Downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 35670/650 & 35525/500. A buying opportunity at 35320/280 with stops below 35250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
The more environmentally friendly, the more comfortable to work in

The more environmentally friendly, the more comfortable to work in

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 08.11.2021 13:03
Office buildings that have solutions to limit the negative impact on the environment and reduce operating costs, at the same time provide a friendlier, safer and better organized work space. What do they offer? The change in the way of thinking about the work environment that has taken place since last spring did not ultimately affect the status of offices. On the contrary, after several months of hibernation, offices experience a renaissance. They are still a strong support in building the organizational culture of companies and a base for the development and cooperation of teams, training new employees, and a meeting place with clients. However, the expectations of the users of office buildings have changed. In addition, issues concerning the way buildings affect the natural environment and the people working in them have come to the fore. - Decision-making processes aimed at environmental protection are gaining momentum, which more and more often carry specific declarations of investors and developers, in which they undertake to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by buildings to zero in a specific time perspective - says Bartłomiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO of Walter Herz. It became necessary to reevaluate the previously adopted standards and expand the scale of pro-ecological solutions, especially in the context of the climate change, which brings unexpected and dangerous weather phenomena. - The development of the market is focused on the implementation of intelligent, environmentally neutral buildings and the creation of innovative solutions that support the decarbonisation of the existing resources and adapting them to the current requirements in the field of sustainable development - explains Bartłomiej Zagrodnik. - The changes are also stimulated by such factors as rising electricity prices, costs of water consumption, heating and waste disposal. Office buildings are switching to green energy derived only from renewable sources, which not only has positive environmental effects, but also reduces operating costs. Hence, we also see the growing interest of tenants in real estate equipped with environmentally friendly solutions - says Bartłomiej Zagrodnik. Green energy and water saving The most modern buildings not only draw energy from renewable sources, but also use technologies that reduce its consumption by automating space management. There are also more and more common solutions enabling water retention, which is of key importance in the face of the water crisis. Facility owners are serious about the problem of shrinking water resources. They invest in gray water filtering and reuse systems and rainwater management, fittings and showers based on motion sensors to reduce network water consumption, as well as various types of water retention solutions. They create green roofs, terraces and rain gardens. Companies are also more likely to choose buildings that meet certain standards in this area, in order to take advantage of the possibility of reducing costs. In Poland, proper management of water resources is particularly important because in terms of our resources, we are on one of the last places in Europe, ahead of the Czech Republic, Cyprus and Malta. Unfortunately, the level of water consumption in the world is constantly increasing. Over the last century, it has increased sixfold. Crystal clear air, green enclaves and ecological crops There are many more factors that influence the efficiency of the office buildings. There are, among others, ventilation and air circulation systems that control and supply air of better quality than specified in the standards in high-class facilities, specialized filters and humidifiers, as well as carbon free finishing materials and solutions optimizing acoustics. Modern buildings expand the spectrum of solutions to become more work-friendly and environmentally friendly. Here, green also plays one of the main roles. We observe the creation of green enclaves around the buildings, the arrangement of courtyards, squares and recreation areas immersed in greenery, also with green concrete pavements that purify the air. Vegetation is usually selected in terms of low water demand and the possibility of producing a large amount of oxygen and absorbing toxins, and vines in the context of protecting the walls of the building from heating up. The complexes include refuges for birds and insects, as well as city apiaries and gardens for organic farming. Specially designed blocks, facades and roofs of buildings with elements reflecting sunlight are used to reduce the effect of the so-called urban heat islands. The interiors of office buildings are arranged in such a way as to activate users. For example, the central location of the stairs is to encourage the movement of pedestrians between the floors, which reduces the use of elevators. The promotion of infrastructure for cyclists in the office buildings is also conducive to the pro-health activity of employees and reducing the burden on the environment. Technologies that facilitate work organization The well-being of employees, so widely discussed today, is supported by the use of hybrid office management platforms in the most modern buildings, thanks to which the facilities can offer the so-called smart office. Applications available on smartphones improve the daily work organization. With their use, one can, among others, book an office arrival time or a parking space, enter the garage and take a lift to the selected floor avoiding contact with the other office users, book a conference room for a team or client meeting, and even report a printer issue. The key challenge was to provide people in the office environment with the greatest possible comfort and safety. It is to be guaranteed not only by generally available basic disinfectants, masks and gloves, but also by changes in the arrangement of offices. Such arrangement of office spaces, so that they are comfortable for everyone and provide various types of zones adapted to the new work profile. Therefore, companies most often decide to increase the distance between work stations, limit the number of large conference rooms that replace dedicated smaller rooms, boxes and booths for talks, as well as stands for creative team work. There are social zones, chill out rooms to rest, green terraces and winter gardens. The ambition of the office environment is also to create ecological spaces. Using as many recycled or reusable office supplies as possible, such as filter bottles instead of disposable plastic packaging. Undoubtedly, the reduction of the carbon footprint is also facilitated by the popularization of videoconferences, which significantly reduced business trips. Just as the already sanctioned electronic document flow previously contributed to minimizing the use of paper. Good service in the buildings is also increasingly important. The offer of additional services, similar to those provided by hotels, for example concierge service, is gaining in importance. The key condition is also direct access to the gastronomic offer, basic services and shops, preferably on the premises of the building. The changes taking place in the office market are generally aimed at perceiving space as a service. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Here We Go Again - Gold Simply Can’t Stand $1,800!

Here We Go Again - Gold Simply Can’t Stand $1,800!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 02.11.2021 15:05
  The yellow metal couldn’t face the downward pressure and declined abruptly on Friday. What happened, and why did it fail? Friday was a brutal time for gold. The price of the yellow metal dropped sharply from around $1,795 to $1,775 in the early morning hours in the US. Am I surprised? Not at all. In Thursday’s edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I wrote that “gold may struggle until the Fed’s tightening cycle starts. You have been warned!”, and, as if on cue, gold wasn’t able to maintain its position around $1,800 and declined. Actually, gold prices have been testing and failing to hold this key psychological level for the last three weeks. What exactly happened on Friday? Well, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the report on personal income and outlays in September 2021. The publication shows that U.S. nominal consumer spending increased 0.6%, while the disposable personal income declined 1.3%, reflecting a decrease in government social benefits. Additionally, the annual rate of change in personal consumption expenditures price index accelerated from 4.2% in August to 4.4% in September (see the chart below), the highest pace since January 1991. Wait. Inflation rose, but gold prices declined? Exactly. Inflation is fundamentally positive for gold in the long run, but so far – as I explained last week – “inflationary worries have been counterweighted by the expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle”. The relationship is simple: higher inflation translates into higher expectations of a more hawkish Fed. The odds of an interest rate hike in June 2022 increased from 23.1% - recorded at the end of September - to 61.6% on October 22 and 65.7% on October 29, 2021. As a result, the bond yields increased, while the greenback strengthened. There is also another possible driver of rising interest rates and an appreciating US dollar. CPI inflation in the euro area accelerated to 4.1% in October from 3.4% in September, reaching the highest value since July 2008. However, the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged last week despite quickly rising prices. Moreover, it’s not signaling any tightening of its stance, maintaining that high inflation is transitory even though Christine Lagarde acknowledged that the decline in inflation would take longer than the central bank had initially expected. The point here is that the ECB remains an outlier among central banks, which either have already tightened or signaled tightening of their monetary policy. This means that the US dollar is likely to appreciate against the euro, which should be another headwind for gold. Having said that, this scenario will occur if the markets believe in a dovish stance of the EBC. The rising yields on German bonds indicate that the markets don’t entirely trust Lagarde’s rhetoric and expect a more hawkish stance of the ECB, which would be fortunate for gold.   Implications for Gold What does higher US inflation imply for the gold market? Well, not so much in the short run. Even though I’ve seen some signs of a bullish revival in the gold market, the bulls remain too weak to challenge the $1,800 level. That’s too much, man! Luckily, better times are coming for gold. Have you seen the advance estimates of the durable goods orders (0.4% decline in September) or of the GDP in the third quarter of this year? According to the BEA, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% (annualized quarterly growth), much below the 6.7% reported in Q2 and much below the expectations of 2.8% growth. When it comes to the annual percentage growth year-over-year, real GDP rose 4.9% compared to 12.2% in Q2, as the chart below shows. So, the pace of growth remains historically fast, but it’s decelerating quickly. Given that the economy has already reopened and energy and transportation crises are hurting growth (not to mention inflation wreaking havoc), we should expect a further slowdown on the way. And this brings us closer to… yes, you guessed it, stagflation. To be clear: we are still far from stagnation, but the economic slowdown after a spectacular post-pandemic recovery is already unfolding. When we add it to high inflation, we should get an environment supportive of gold prices. However, supportive factors won’t be able to fully operate until the Fed starts hiking interest rates and gold prices bottom out. Sometimes one needs to hit rock bottom to succeed later; perhaps that’s also the case with gold. Time will tell. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
A New Profitable Call on Crude Oil: “The Yoyo-Trade”

A New Profitable Call on Crude Oil: “The Yoyo-Trade”

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 08.11.2021 16:54
Was the adage "buy the rumor, sell the news" also verified with that new trading position? It was Thursday (Nov. 4) that the following rumor had flourished: a possible coordinated action which was supposed to consist of drawing on the strategic reserves of several countries, including the United States, which were leading the dance. Meanwhile, our subscribers were just getting ready to go long around the $76.57-79.65 support zone (yellow band), with a stop placed on lower $76.48 level (red dotted line) and targets at $81.80 and $83.40 (green dotted lines). As a result, oil prices had contracted in stride (trading just into our entry area), just before the rumor effect faded shortly on Friday (Nov. 5), to push them back up. In fact, with oil prices picking up momentum on Friday, once again settling firmly above $80 per barrel, and with a market still showing doubts on the possible use of strategic crude reserves, the proposed trade entry on the black gold, triggered on Thursday – following my last post – was thus profitable since it already turned into a partial profit-taking at the end of the week. Then, on Saturday, Joe Biden said that his administration had the means to cope with the rise in energy prices, in particular after the OPEC+'s decision not to raise their production to more than 400,000 barrels per day. in a context of global imbalance between supply and demand. In addition, Joe Biden also insinuated that the organization (and its allies) might actually not do its best to pump enough volume of crude oil. Trading Charts Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above-mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports, as this dip on crude oil offered a great opportunity for the bulls to enter long whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at here. . Moreover, for those interested in Forex trading, please note that I am currently preparing some new series about the co-existing links and relationships between commodities and currencies. Stay tuned – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Getting Back To Risky Assets As A Result Of Russian Move?

Calling the Precious Metals Bull

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.11.2021 16:54
S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps. And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged. For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating. Don‘t look for the oil breather to last too long – black gold is well bid above $78, and hasn‘t made its peak in 2021, let alone 2022. As I wrote on Friday, its downswing that works to increase disposable income (serving as a shadow Fed funds rate in the zero rates environment), would prove short-lived. The real economy would have to come to terms with stubbornly high oil prices – and it will manage. The yield curve is starting to steepen modestly again, and fresh spending initiatives would breathe some life into the stalling GDP growth. Next year though, don‘t be surprised by a particularly weak (even negative) quarterly reading, but we aren‘t there by a long shot, I‘m telling you. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks getting ripe for taking a pause – the rising volume isn‘t able to push it much higher intraday. Credit Markets HYG strength indeed continues, and it‘s a good sign that quality debt instruments are joining – the reprieve won‘t last long though (think a few brief weeks before rates start rising again). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness, and miners are indeed joining in. I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought. Crude Oil Crude oil hasn‘t peaked, and looks getting ready to consolidate with a bullish bias again. $85 hasn‘t been the top, and the energy sector remains primed to do well. Copper Copper is deceptively weak, and actually internally strong when other base metals are examined. As more money flows into commodities, look for the red metal to start doing better – commodities haven‘t topped yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has come to an end, and the pre-positioned bulls have a reason to celebrate as my prior scenario– stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next – came to fruition. Summary S&P 500 breather is a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the credit markets don‘t support it. Commodities are catching up in the (dovish as assessed by the markets too) taper aftermath, and precious metals are sniffing the dollar‘s weakness a few short weeks ahead. With fresh money not needed to repair commercial banks‘ balance sheets, it flows into the financial markets, and the taper effects would be negated by the repo operations – yes, I‘m not looking for a liquidity crunch. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin rockets from best support at 60500/60000

Bitcoin rockets from best support at 60500/60000

Jason Sen Jason Sen 09.11.2021 08:27
Bitcoin rockets from best support at 60500/60000 & through he all time high at 66500/67000 as predicted, initially targeting 69500/70000 Ripple through 6 month trend line resistance at 12300/400 for a buy signal. Ethereum longs at best support at 4380/4340 work on the run to the next target of 4800.Today's Analysis Bitcoin longs from anywhere above 60000 this trade worked perfectly as we beat 66500/67000 as expected initially targeting 69500/70000. We should struggle so do not be surprised to see some profit taking. However a break above 70000 is a good buy signal & can take us as far as 70000/78000. Downside is expected to be limited with first support at 67000/66500. Longs need stops below 66000. Ripple break above 12400 is an important medium term buy signal initially targeting 12800/850 & 13050. Support at 12300/12200. Best support at 11800/11700. Longs need stops below 11600. Ethereum longs at best support at 4380/4340 worked on the bounce back above 4475/55 to the targets of 4600/50 & 4800 & hopefully as far as 4950/5000 this week. Downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 4650/40. Best support at 4520/4480. Longs need stops below 4430. Emini S&P December hitting the targets as far as 4696/99 before reversing from 4712 & we are closing in on first support at 4675/70 this morning. Nasdaq December seeing a little profit taking from our 16420/440 target but downside should be limited in the bull trend with no sell signal yet, despite overbought conditions. Emini Dow Jones December we wrote: hit the next target of 36000/100 & if we continue higher in the bull trend look for 36250/280. Target hit with a new all time high at 36375. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P meets first support at 4675/70. Longs need stops below 4665 but then expect strong support at 4650/45. Try longs with stops below 4635. Unlikely but further losses meet an excellent buying opportunity at 4615/05. Longs need stops below 4595. The only resistance is at 4710/15. You would have to brave or crazy to sell short in this endless bull market! A break above 4720 targets 4735/40 then 4760. Nasdaq December straight to the next target of 16420/440 with a new all time high only 8 ticks above!! Eventually we can reach 16700, perhaps this week. Then we look for 16850. First support at 16260/240 likely to be tested this morning, but below here meets second support at 16140/120. Unlikely but further losses meet a buying opportunity at 15970/920. Longs need stops below 15890. Emini Dow Jones December new all time high at 36375 but watch resistance at 36410/440. I certainly do not recommend a short but we could pause here. If we continue higher look for 36490/500 & 36750/800. First support at 36100/35950. Best support at 35700/650. Longs need stops below 35550. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.11.2021 10:24
Some might argue that it is best to sit on one’s hands and wait for a time when bitcoin prices are suppressed, and they have a point with the possibility of a market crash. And then again, they might have said that already when bitcoin was still trading at US$3,000 (we do not find it likely that bitcoin will ever retrace to those levels again.). Where are the uncertainties in bitcoins certainty? When you dissect a complex mechanism, you will always find a problem. It is like going to the bakery. It would be foolish to expect to get anything else but bread. Maybe it is better to look at a glass half full, meaning why not look at why bitcoin could be a certainty? BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, every buyer is a winner if he didn’t sell: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. The monthly chart above certainly shows that whoever bought in the past has made a profit by now. Yet, we know “hodling” isn’t an easy thing. Personal risk appetite determines the number of bitcoin that can be held throughout these boom and bust cycles. We solved this dilemma through our quad exit strategy. And we teach low-risk position size building in our free telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, new all-time highs: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 9th, 2021. Now, moving forward to real-time, we can make out a similar bullish picture on the weekly chart after our glimpse in the past. Recent events provide data that substantiates bitcoin’s long-term certainty. A look at the last two weeks of October (marked in white) reveals a very brief battle with a minimal retracement level at the double top of all-time highs. Bears barely get a foot in the door, where typically bitcoin experiences significant retracements. To us, a clear sign that the rush is on. Big player money is now rushing to accumulate the necessary size they aim to hold on their books for the long term. Consequently, reducing volatility, one of the most feared aspects of bitcoin, which in times to come will attract more market players to this trading vehicle.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, six figures in 2022: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. A look into the future from a monthly chart perspective is confidence building as well. With new all-time high prices printing at the time of publication of this chart book, our bet is still on bitcoin with a 63% over 47% chance that prices will advance from here rather than retracing to a substantially lower price level. So far, bitcoin has done nothing else but eradicate the uncertainties placed in its way. The most stubborn doubter would likely be happy if they had picked up a few coins when they traded at a dollar. What provides confidence for our forecast is the confirmation that bitcoin price retracements are now more modest. This lets us assume that the number of professional traders participating in this market has increased. In the monthly chart above, you can make out that closing prices of the month’s May, June, and July this year closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A conservative retracement for bitcoins historical standards. We project for the near term that bitcoin will reach six-figure prices in mid-February next year. The uncertain certainty of bitcoin: From the anticipatory perspective, it seems evident that holding bitcoin is a prudent move with a look into the future. A hedge is needed once the risk is apparent to all, and the house of cards will tumble.  From a real-time perspective, we also find bitcoin to be a “must-own.” The charts above showed the strength with which bitcoin is aching to claim its turf, and it is never good to wait till “fear of missing out” kicks in, and low-risk entry opportunities become scarce.  And from a reactionary perspective, a look in the past, it is evident that anybody would like a piece of the action where bitcoin has nothing but a stunning history of unheard percentage moves and made it from eight cents to US$ 67,000 in just a dozen years.  There are always uncertainties in speculative ventures, but bitcoin itself is a certainty, not to be rationalized away for the years to come. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Seeks Support

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Seeks Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.11.2021 09:01
EURGBP sees a temporary pullback The sterling inched higher as traders took profit after the BOE’s dovish shift last week. The rally above the supply area of 0.8570 is a sign of commitment from the buy-side. Strong momentum has forced the bears to rush for the exit door. 0.8620 is now the next resistance. Its break would bring the euro to September’s high at 0.8660, where a breakout may lead to a bullish reversal in the medium-term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI is causing a pullback. The base of the latest surge at 0.8465 is an important support. NZDUSD tests key resistance The New Zealand dollar recoups losses as risk appetite recovers. The pair has met buying interest at 0.7070 along the 20-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence is a sign that the bearish momentum has waned. When this happens in a demand zone, it makes a rebound of greater significance. 0.7180 is a major hurdle ahead following a previously botched bounce. Its breach may resume the kiwi’s uptrend above 0.7220. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may briefly limit the bullish impetus. GER 40 consolidates gains The Dax 40 continues to rally in hopes of a prolonged low-rate environment. The bulls are pushing towards 16200 after the index reached the milestone at 16000. However, the RSI’s multiple ventures into the overbought area and a bearish divergence indicate that the rally may have overextended. A temporary pullback would be necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. 15920 is the immediate support. Further down, 15730 on the 20-day moving average would be an area of interest.
Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher

Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.11.2021 11:02
Bitcoin is volatile and nosedives in some of these attacks. A historical look back illustrates how bitcoin each time is climbing higher right after: 2009 traded for free (zero value) between enthusiasts 2010 worth US$0.08 2011 from US$1 up to US$32 back down to US$2 2012 from US$4.80 up to US$13.20 2013 from US$13.40 up to US$1,156 and down to US$760 2014 – 2016 down to US$315 2017 up to US$20,089 2018 down to US$3,122 2019 up to US$13,880 2020 up to US$34,800 2021 up to US$67,016 And these last three years, bitcoin has been climbing higher, undeterred. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin, a true winner: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The monthly chart above illustrates bitcoin’s winning characteristics. We can see harmonious swings. Retracements are substantial, but bitcoin shows a persistent tendency to outperform previous all-time highs. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, explosive recent history: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The weekly chart points towards more explosive moves recently. After a breakout of a multi-year range, we can see that bitcoin has started to move substantially due to more widespread adoption. Swing behavior is getting more harmonious. At the moment, we are in the midst of a battle between bears and bulls at a double top formation. Consequently, the following days to weeks will show who will come out ahead. The fact that bulls cling to their winnings for this long gives price in this pat situation a slight edge for the bullish corner.   BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, stepping away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The daily chart can be pretty volatile. These smaller time frames are advised only to be traded if you are a professional. This applies particularly to struggle zones like the one we are currently in, for instance. Intraday swings can get substantial. In addition, once these battles between bears and bulls resolve, daily percentage moves can be staggering. Luckily, one doesn’t need to fear such challenging trading environments. To clarify, step up to larger time frames and reduce trade frequency and position size. Accept the risk based on adequate position size to your individual psychology and risk appetite. Consequently, buying for the long term will become much easier. It is essential as such to be familiar with a trading object’s typical behavior and, in bitcoins case, not to forget its ability to shine after a major setback. Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher: Overall, bitcoins’ technical personality makes it an easy choice for one’s wealth preservation portfolio. Especially when options for wealth preservation investments are limited! This year’s strength towards gold and silver price performance had us increase bitcoins percentage allocation within the long-term portfolio. It fulfills two valuable functions to firmly find its place under historically much longer established counterparts. Scarcity for stability, and a more considerable performance potential necessary to protect against inflation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Gold, Silver, and Miners Just Can’t Jump

Gold, Silver, and Miners Just Can’t Jump

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 03.11.2021 15:17
Let’s face it, the metals are not having an easy time breaking out. Short-term rallies end up going nowhere and bearish signs are still in abundance. Yesterday’s session was once again quite informative, and so is today’s pre-market trading. In yesterday’s analysis, I emphasized the importance of the relative weakness that we just saw in mining stocks, so let’s start with taking a look at what mining stocks did yesterday. At first glance, yesterday’s performance might look like a bullish reversal, but zooming in clarifies that something else was actually in the works. Let’s take a look at the GDXJ 1-hour candlestick chart for details. Yesterday’s “reversal” was actually a breakdown below the previous (mid-October) intraday lows along with the verification thereof. The GDXJ moved below the above-mentioned lows and – while it moved back up – it ended the session below them. This is a bearish type of session. Also, if you were wondering about the high volume in the final hour of trading – that’s relatively normal as that’s when bigger trades tend to take place. And while mining stocks were busy verifying the breakdown, gold tried to break above its declining, red resistance line, and verify that breakout. While yesterday’s session didn’t bring much lower gold prices (and the invalidation), today’s pre-market trading makes it clear that the attempt to break higher failed. Just like I had indicated yesterday. This time the rising short-term support line is not there to prevent further declines as the breakdown below it was also confirmed. What does it mean? It means that gold is likely to fall, and quite likely it’s going to fall hard. Besides, silver price is after a major short-term breakdown, too. After a powerful short-term rally, silver had reversed, and now it broke below its rising support line. That’s yet another bearish indication. Please note that at first silver was reluctant to decline while mining stocks moved decisively lower, which was normal during the early part of a given decline. Silver did some catching-up action yesterday, but since miners are not showing strength, I’d say that we’re getting to the regular part of a short-term move, not close to its end. And the move lower is likely to continue, just as the move higher is likely to continue in case of the USD Index. The USDX is after a verification of the breakout to new 2021 highs and after an about monthly consolidation above them. This is a perfect starting point for a major upswing, and we’re likely to see one soon. All in all, while the outlook for the precious metals sector is very bullish for the following years, it’s very bearish for the following weeks. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Great Profitable Runs

Great Profitable Runs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.11.2021 15:04
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 pause is here, and all that‘s missing, is emboldened bears. They may or may not arrive given that VIX keeps looking lazy these days – either way, the risks to the downside are persisting for a couple of days at least still.Credit MarketsHYG strength evaporated, but it‘s on a short-term basis only. The broader credit market weakness would get reversed, but it‘s my view that quality debt instruments would be lagging.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness – the upswing goes on, but is likely to temporarily pause as the miners‘ daily weakness foretells. Still, I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, no matter the relative momentary stumble in maintaining gains – the energy sector hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper is participating in the commodities upswing – not too hot, not too cold. Just right, and it‘s a question of time when the red metal would start visibly outperforming the CRB Index again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has indeed come to an end, and both leading (by volume traded) cryptos are primed for further gains. SummaryS&P 500 breather remains a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike as credit markets have weakened, and there isn‘t enough short-term will in tech to go higher still. The very short-term picture in stocks is mixed, but downside risks are growing. The dollar is already weakening, much to the liking of commodities and precious metals – there is still enough liquidity in the markets as any taper can be easily offset by withdrawing repo money sitting on the Fed‘s balance sheet.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls!

How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 09.11.2021 15:20
US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800! The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision). Additionally, the unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.6%, as the chart above shows. It’s a positive surprise, as economists expected a drop to 4.7%. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed people fell by 255,000 - to 7.4 million. It’s a much lower level compared to the recessionary peak (23.1 million), however, it’s still significantly higher than before the pandemic (5.7 million and the unemployment rate of 3.5%). Implications for Gold What does the recent employment report imply for the precious market? Well, gold surprised observers and rallied on Friday despite strong nonfarm payrolls. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix surpassed the key level of $1,800. To show gold’s reaction more clearly, let’s take a look at the chart below, which shows that the price of gold futures initially declined after the October Employment Situation Report release. Only after a while, it rebounded and rallied to about $1,820. It’s a surprising behavior, as gold usually reacted negatively to strong economic data. Until now, gold liked weak employment reports as they increased the chances of a dovish Fed that would continue its easy monetary policy. Now, something has changed. But what? Well, some analysts would say that nothing has changed at all. Instead, they would tell us that the latest employment report is not as strong as it seems. In particular, the labor force participation rate was unmoved at 61.6% in October and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4% to 61.7% since June 2020, as the chart below shows. The lack of any improvement in the labor force participation rate could be interpreted as a lack of full employment and used by the Fed as an excuse to leave interest rates unchanged for a long time. I’m not convinced by this explanation. “Full employment” does not mean that all people are working, but all people who want to work are working. And, as the chart above shows, the fact that after the Great Recession the labor participation rate didn’t move back to the pre-crisis level didn’t prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates in 2015-2019. There is also another possibility. It might be the case that investors are now focusing on inflation. The employment report showed that the average hourly earnings have increased by 4.9% over the past twelve months, raising some concerns about wage inflation and general price pressure in the economy. Remember: context is crucial. If the new narrative is more about high inflation, good news may be positive for gold if they also indicate strong inflationary pressure. Although I like this explanation, it’s not free from shortcomings. You see, stronger inflation concerns should increase inflation premium and bond yields. However, the opposite is true: the real interest rates declined last week (see the chart below), enabling gold to catch its breath. After all, the markets are expecting a more dovish Fed than before the announcement of tapering. This is a fundamentally positive development for the gold market. Having said that, it’s too early to declare the start of the breakout. If inflation stays high, the US central bank could have no choice but to hike interest rates next year. Also, although the recent jump despite strong payrolls is encouraging, gold has yet to prove that it can stay above $1,800. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Profiting on Hot Inflation

Profiting on Hot Inflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.11.2021 16:08
S&P 500 pause finally went from sideways to down, and might not be over yet. Credit markets aren‘t nearly totally weak – tech simply had to pause, so did semiconductors, and the Tesla downswing took its toll. Value though recovered the intraday downside, and VIX retreated from its daily highs – that may be all it can muster. I‘m looking primarily at bond markets for clues, and these reacted to the PPI figures with further decline in yields.At the same, inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. As stated yesterday:(…) The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 finally declined, and the very short-term picture is unclear – is the dip about to continue, or more sideways trading before taking on prior highs? It‘s a coin toss.Credit MarketsHYG recouped some of the prior downside, but the LQD and TLT upswings give an impression of risk-off environment. Sharply declining yields aren‘t necessarily positive for stocks, and such is the case today.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver look like briefly pausing before the upswing continues – miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates are powering it all.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, and oil sector is also pointing at higher black gold prices to come. Energy hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper went at odds with the CRB Index, but that‘s not a cause for concern. It‘ll take a while, but the red metal would swing upwards again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are briefly consolidating, and a fresh upswing is a question of shortening time. SummaryS&P 500 remains momentarily undecided, but the pullback shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike on yet another hot inflation numbers. This isn‘t transitory really as I‘ve been telling you for almost 3 quarters already. Needless to say, the fire under real assets is being increasingly lit – more gains in commodities, precious metals and cryptos are ahead as inflations runs rampant on the Fed‘s watch.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Cuts Through Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Cuts Through Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.11.2021 09:26
USDJPY attempts a bullish reversalThe US dollar broke higher after October’s CPI exceeded expectations.On the daily chart, the RSI has dropped back into the neutrality area. The greenback has secured bids around the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd at 112.70.The latest surge above the psychological level of 114.00 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for a bullish reversal above 114.25. Before that, an overbought RSI may lead to a pullback towards 113.05.XAUUSD breaks resistanceRising US CPI boosts the demand for gold as an inflation hedge.After being unable to clear the daily chart’s triple top at 1833 over the course of the summer, the precious metal has cut through the resistance like a hot knife through butter. High volatility suggests that sellers were quick to bail out.As momentum traders jump in, the bullish breakout would lead to an extended rally towards 1900. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback. In that case, 1823 at the base of the rally may see strong buying interest.USOIL retreats from resistanceWTI crude edged lower after the EIA reported a slight rise in US inventories. The price’s swift recovery above the sell-off point at 83.00 is an indication that sentiment remains overall optimistic.However, the previous peak and psychological level of 85.00 seems like a tough hurdle to overcome for now. An overbought RSI has triggered a temporary pullback with a break below 81.90. In turn, this is deepening the correction towards 79.30.Trend followers may see the limited retracement as an opportunity to stake in.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Keeps Bullish Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 12.11.2021 09:33
GBPUSD buried in bearish territory The pound continues to retreat after Britain’s growth fell short of expectations in Q3. A break below September’s low at 1.3420 has invalidated the latest rebound, putting buyers on the defensive once again. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may ease the bearish push momentarily. A bounce could be an opportunity to sell into strength. 1.3500 is the immediate resistance. On the downside, renewed momentum would drive price action towards last December’s lows around 1.3200. AUDUSD struggles for support The Australian dollar came under pressure after the unemployment rate returned above 5% last month. The sell-off continued after a brief pause over the 30-day moving average near 0.7390, turning the latter into a fresh resistance. The lack of support suggests increasingly downbeat sentiment. The base of October’s bullish breakout at 0.7240 is the next support. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound from the round number at 0.7300, though it is likely to turn out to be a dead cat bounce. US100 tests demand zone The Nasdaq 100 suffers losses as high inflation dents risk appetite. An RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the uptrend, a sign that the rally has overheated. Subsequently, a drop below 16200 has prompted leveraged buyers to exit for fear of a correction. As the RSI inched into the oversold territory, the index saw bids near the breakout zone (15900) from earlier this month. The support-turned-resistance at 16200 is the first hurdle. Then the bulls will need to clear 16400 before the rally can resume.
Netflix Stock (NFLX) Ahead Of Important Data, XAUUSD Chart's Reduced Amplitudes - Swissquote's MarketTalk

Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 11.11.2021 16:06
  Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up. Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices. On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0! Indeed, the CPI rose 0.9% last month after rising 0.4% in September. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, accelerated to 0.6% in October from 0.1% in the preceding month. And, as the chart below shows, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 5.4% in September to 6.2% in October, while the core CPI annual rate jumped from 4% to 4.6%. This surge (and a new peak) is a final blow to the Fed’s fairy tale about transitory inflation. As one can see in the chart above, the CPI rate has stayed above the Fed’s target since March 2021, and it won’t decline to 2% anytime soon. This contradicts all definitions of transitoriness I know. What’s more, the October surge in inflation was not only above the expectations – it was also the biggest jump since November 1990, as the chart below shows. Unfortunately for Americans, it might not be the last word of inflation. This is because over 80% of CPI subcomponents were above the Fed’s target of 2%, which clearly indicates that high inflation is not caused merely by the reopening of the economy but also by the broad-based factors such as the surge in the money supply.   Implications for Gold Ladies and gentlemen, gold finally reacted to surging inflation! As the chart below shows, the price of gold (Comex futures) spiked from below $1,830 to above $1,860 after the BLS report on CPI. Why did gold finally notice inflation and react as a true inflation hedge? Well, it seems that the narrative changed. Until recently, investors believed the Fed that inflation would be transitory. Reality, however, has disproved this story. Another factor I would like to mention is the FOMC’s recent announcement of tapering of its quantitative easing. That event removed some downward pressure from the gold market. By the way, this is something I also correctly predicted in the Fundamental Gold Report that commented on September inflation report: “it seems that until the Fed tapers its quantitative easing, gold will remain under downward pressure. Nonetheless, when it finally happens, better times may come for gold.” Indeed, yesterday’s rally suggests that gold recalled its function as a hedge against inflation. Until today, I was cautious in announcing the breakout in the gold market, as the yellow metal jumped above $1,800 only recently. However, the fact that gold managed not only to stay above $1,800 but also to continue its march upward (in tandem with the US dollar!) suggests that there is bullish momentum right now. Having said that, investors should remember about the threat of a more hawkish Fed. Higher inflation could support the monetary hawks within the FOMC and prompt the US central bank to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The prospects of a tightening cycle could weigh on gold. However, as long as investors focus stronger on inflation than on tightening of monetary policy, and as long as the real interest rates decrease, or at do not increase, gold can go up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
HK Rallies and PBOC Cuts, US Stocks Stabilize

Focus on the Real Gains

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.11.2021 15:51
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet. I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic: (…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either. S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either. Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 decline continues, and the very short-term picture favors a little consolidation – the selling might not be over just yet. Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look, without tangible signs of stabilization, which makes any S&P 500 upswings a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to be just getting started – the growing money flows aren‘t sufficient to push prices lower. Miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates coupled with surging inflation fears (and Fed policy mistake recognition) are powering it all. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls would have to step in around the $80 level again, and it seems they wouldn‘t find it too hard to do. Yesterday‘s downswing looks like a daily setback only. Copper Copper downswing was again bought, and I‘m not looking for the bears to make much further progress as commodities appear ready to turn up again regardless of temporary dollar strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are again briefly consolidating, and the bulls haven‘t really spoken their last word. It‘s a nice base building before another upleg. Summary S&P 500 is likely pausing for a moment here, and any further pullback isn‘t likely to reach far on the downside. The late day selloff in real assets was merely a brief, news-driven correction that would be reversed before too long, and precious metals are showing the way as inflation is moving back into the spotlight, and the talk about Fed‘s policy mistake is growing louder. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Red Hot and Running

Red Hot and Running

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.11.2021 15:44
S&P 500 really went through the brief pause in selling, but credit markets haven‘t stopped really. Their weakness continues, but is hitting value a tad harder than tech. Together with VIX turning south, that‘s one more sign why the bulls are slowly becoming the increasingly more favored side. Hold your horses though, I‘m talking about a very short-term outlook – this correction doesn‘t appear to be over just yet (the second half of Nov is usually weakner seasonally): (…) some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. … I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. There, it had been a one-way ride. TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely. Primarily tech would benefit, and the ever more negative real rates would put a floor beneath the feverish precious metals run. Make no mistake though, the tide in gold and silver has turned, and inflation expectations aren‘t as tame anymore. In this light, there‘s no point in sweating the commodities retracement of late. True, the rising dollar is taking some steam out of the CRB superbull, but that‘s only temporary – I‘m looking for the greenback to reverse to the downside once the debt ceiling drama reappears in the beginning of Dec. Then, the Treasury would also have to start issuing more (short-term) debt, which would put a damper on any upswing attempts. Meanwhile, inflation would keep at least as hot as it‘sx been recently, and the Fed policy mistake in letting the fire burn unattended, would be more broadly acknowledged. What a profitable constellation for precious metals, real and crypto assets! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is bidding its time – the shallow very short-term consolidation continues, with the bears slowly running out of time (for today). Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look continues, but LQD is hinting at a possible stabilization next. Unless that‘s more broadly followed in bonds, any S&P 500 upswing would remain a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver were indeed just getting started – a relatively brief pause shouldn‘t be surprising. Any dips though remain to be bought. All in all, PMs are firing on all cylinders currently. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be. The consolidation starting late Oct would though resolve to the upside in my view – it‘s just a question of shortening time. Copper Copper participated in the commodities upswing – not too enthusiastically, not too weakly. The volume seems just right for base building before another red metal‘s move higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 is looking at a mildly positive day today, but the correction isn‘t probably over just yet. With most of the downside already in, I‘m looking for bullish spirits to very gradually return. Precious metals will be the star performers for the many days to come, followed by copper and then oil. Crypto better days are also lyiing ahead. All in all, inflation trades will keep doing better and better. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Will Evergrande Make Gold Grand?

Will Evergrande Make Gold Grand?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 12.11.2021 18:57
  Evergrande’s debt issues are a symptom of China’s deep structural problems. If the crisis spills over wider, gold may benefit, but we are still far from such a scenario. Beijing, we have a problem! Evergrande, one of China’s largest real estate developers and biggest companies in the world, is struggling to meet the interest payments on its debts. As the company has more than $300 billion worth of liabilities, its recent liquidity problems have sparked fears in the financial markets. They also triggered a wave of questions: will Evergrande become a Chinese Lehman Brothers? Is the Chinese economy going to collapse or stagnate? Will Evergrande make gold grand? The answer to the first question is: no, the possible default of Evergrande likely won’t cause a global contagion in the same way as Lehman Brothers did. Why? First of all, Lehman Brothers collapsed because of the run in the repo market and the following liquidity crisis. As the company was exposed to subprime assets, investors lost confidence and the bank lost its access to cheap credit. Lehman Brothers tried to sell its assets, which plunged the prices of a wide range of financial assets, putting other institutions into trouble. Unlike Lehman Brothers, Evergrande is not an investment bank but a real estate developer. It doesn’t have so many financial assets, and it’s not a key player in the repo market. The exposure of important global financial institutions to Evergrande is much smaller. What’s more, we haven’t seen a credit freeze yet, nor an endless wave of selling across almost all asset classes, which took place during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Given that the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy was ultimately positive for gold (although the price of the yellow metal declined initially during the phase of wide sell-offs), the fact that Evergrande probably doesn’t pose similar risks to the global economy could be disappointing for gold bulls. However, gold bulls could warmly welcome my answer to the second question: the case of Evergrande reveals deep and structural problems of China’s economy, namely its heavy reliance on debt and the real estate sector. As the chart below shows, the debt of the private non-financial sector has increased from about 145% of GDP after the Great Recession to 220% in the first quarter of 2021. So, China has experienced a massive increase in debt since the global financial crisis, reaching levels much higher than in the case of other economies. The rise in indebtedness allowed China to continue its economic expansion, but questions arose about the quality and sustainability of that growth. As Daniel Lacalle points out, The problem with Evergrande is that it is not an anecdote, but a symptom of a model based on leveraged growth and seeking to inflate GDP at any cost with ghost cities, unused infrastructure, and wild construction. Indeed, the levels and rates of growth of China’s private debt are similar to the countries that have experienced spectacular financial crises, such as Japan, Thailand, or Spain. But the significance of China’s real estate sector is much higher. According to the paper by Rogoff and Yang, the real-estate sector accounts for nearly 30% of China’s GDP. On the other hand, China has a relatively high savings rate, while debt is mostly of domestic nature. China’s financial ties to the world are not very strong, which limits the contagion risks. What is more, the Chinese government has acknowledged the problem of excessive debts in the private sector and started a few years ago making some efforts to curb it. The problems of Evergrande can be actually seen as the results of these deleveraging attempts. Therefore, I’m not sure whether China’s economy will collapse anytime soon, but its pace of growth is likely to slow down further. The growth model based on debt and investments (mainly in real estate) has clearly reached its limit. In other words, the property boom must end. Rogoff and Yang estimate that “a 20% fall in real estate activity could lead to a 5-10% fall in GDP”. Such growth slowdown and inevitable adjustments in China’s economy will have significant repercussions on the global economy, as – according to some research – China’s construction sector is now the most important sector for the global economy in terms of its impact on global GDP. In particular, the prices of commodities used in the construction sector may decline and the countries that export to China may suffer. Given that China was the engine of global growth for years, it will also slow down, and, with lower production, it’s possible that inflation will be higher. Finally, what do the problems of China’s real estate sector imply for the gold market? Well, in the short term, not so much. Gold is likely to remain under downward pressure resulting from the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle. However, if Evergrande’s problems spill over, affecting China’s economy or (a bit later) even the global economy, the situation may change. Other Chinese developers (such as Fantasia or Sinic) also have problems with debt payments, as investors are not willing to finance new issues of bonds. In such a scenario, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset might increase, although investors have to remember that the initial rush could be into cash (the US dollar) rather than gold. Unless China’s problems pose a serious threat to the American economy, the appreciation of the greenback will likely counterweigh the gains from safe-haven inflows into gold. So far, financial markets have remained relatively undisturbed by the Evergrande case. Nevertheless, I will closely monitor any upcoming developments in China’s economy and their possible effects on the gold market. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Half a Dozen Things You Should Know about FX

Half a Dozen Things You Should Know about FX

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 12.11.2021 13:11
1.  The market is still digesting the implications of Wednesday's CPI shock. The dollar has strengthened, yields have risen, the stock market wobbled after a long advancing streak, and in any event, stabilized in light trading during the US and Canadian holidays. However, given the low year-ago reading, there is a significant risk that inflation (including the core rate) will accelerate over the next few months. As a result, the Federal Reserve needs greater flexibility to raise rates sooner than it has envisioned.   The main restraint now is the pace of tapering.  The FOMC committed to reducing its bond-buying by $15 bln in November and December.  Its statement indicated that it anticipated maintaining the rate afterward, but the FOMC also reserved the right to adjust the pace if necessary. Thus, accelerating the tapering is the most likely course of action.  Bullard had suggested completing the tapering by the end of Q1.  If this is to become the majority view, there may be some effort to prepare the market.   Recently a rally in US bonds was attributed to talk that Governor Brainard could replace Powell as Fed chair.  The argument was that Brainard was more dovish.  Is this really relevant now?  Does it count as a strike against her?  With Yellen's apparent support, Powell is most likely to get re-appointed, and given that CPI is at 30-year highs, conventional thinking favors maintaining a stable hand at the helm. 2.    The dollar's gains accelerated since the higher than expected CPI report.  The euro was in a $1.15-$1.17 range last month and broke out on Wednesday.  Follow-through selling Thursday brought to about $1.1445.  We have suggested the next target is a little below $1.1300.   The jump in yields helped lift the greenback from below JPY112.80 above JPY114.00.  The five-year high set on October 20 was around JPY114.70, while we project the upper end of the likely range closer to JPY115.00. 3.  Disappointing economic data contributed to the losses of sterling and the Australian dollar.   Economists (Bloomberg survey) expected Australia to have created 50k jobs in October, but, instead, it lost 46.3k jobs for the third consecutive monthly decline.  The bulk of the loss (40.4k) were full-time positions, which reversed the 26.7k increase reported in September.  The unemployment rate jumped to 5.2% from 4.6%, the highest since April.  The Australian dollar peaked near $0.7550 in late October and fell below $0.7300 on Thursday, for the first time in a month.  The next target is around $0.7240-$0.7260.   The UK reported a significant slow down in Q3 GDP to 1.3% from 5.5% in Q2. Expectations for a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter expansion  (Bloomberg survey) seemed on the high side.  However, the September monthly GDP rose 0.6%, and the better than expected rise was offset but a reduction in the August GDP to 0.2% from 0.4%. The industrial output contracted in September. The trade deficit deteriorated after a dramatic revision in the August balance (to -GBP1.880 bln from -GBP3.716 bln, while services accelerated (0.7% from a revised 0.1% gain that had initially reported at 0.3%).  Sterling, which had been pushing near $1.36 before the Bank of England's meeting and slipped to a marginal new low for the year on Wednesday but still held above $1.34 (barely).  It fell to $1.3360 on Thursday. The next chart support area is seen around $1.3165-$1.3185. 4.  The joint US-China statement at COP-26 is promising.  It was the key to the Paris Agreement in 2015.  There was a commitment to boost efforts to cut emissions and illegal deforestation.  The gap between current policies and what is necessary was acknowledged, and there appeared to be an agreement in principle to reach an agreement on climate finances and rules for a carbon market.  The joint statement must have been in the works even as Biden criticized Xi for the lack of commitment for not attending COP-26.  There is still much speculation about a "virtual summit," which is supposed to signal something more than two phone calls the leaders have held this year.  The environment was also recognized where cooperation was possible.  Still, Beijing refused to join the US-EU commitment to cut methane admissions and opted for its own plan.   The geopolitical competition is unaffected by the joint statement. Meanwhile, the more pressing geopolitical threat is coming from the movement of Russian forces to the Ukraine border.  Reports suggest the US has briefed Europe on a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Hostilities are said to have escalated recently.  Recall that Russia had amassed forces (~100k soldiers, tanks, and aircraft) in the Spring too.  It triggered a flurry of talks, and Moscow removed (redeployed) its forces.  Russia defended the troop movement within the country as an internal affair but has accused the US of provocation for sailing warships into the Black Sea, close to its territory last week.  Putin also reportedly was critical of Ukraine's alleged use of drones, which violated a previous agreement.  Meanwhile, tensions on the Polish-Belarus border remain tense.  Merkel sought Putin's help recently to defuse the situation, but he refused.   Belarus is thought to be instigating a migration crisis and has threatened to shut down a critical gas pipeline to the EU if Poland keeps its border closed.  These developments may have contributed to some pressure on the euro.   5.  The Mexican peso fell by around 0.5% after the central bank lifted the overnight rate to 5.00%. It is the third quarter-point move in the cycle that began in June.   The swaps market has nearly 90 bp of tightening discounted over the next three months and almost 220 bp in the next 12 months.  Banxico lifted its Q4 inflation forecast to 6.8% from 6.2%.  The one dissent (Esquivel, again) was to stand pat.  There was no vote for a 50 bp move, which contributed to the dovish read of the rate hike.  October CPI, reported earlier this week, is at 6.24% year-over-year,  6.   Friday's economic calendar is light.  Little new data from the large Asia Pacific and European countries.  The North American calendar is minimal.  The US JOLTS report on job openings and the University of Michigan's preliminary estimate of November sentiment and inflation expectations.   NY Fed's Williams is the lone speaker from the central bank and may not address monetary policy directly.  There are three sets of chunky options that expire tomorrow that may be relevant:  1.23 bln euros at $1.1460, $1.75 bln at JPY114.00, and GBP690 mln at $1.3320.   Disclaimer
Crude Oil Eyeing EIA Figures – “Yoyo-Trade” Exited After Hitting All Projected Targets!

Crude Oil Eyeing EIA Figures – “Yoyo-Trade” Exited After Hitting All Projected Targets!

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 10.11.2021 17:11
  Is crude really set to break its highs again? Fundamental Analysis Crude oil prices reached their last highs on Wednesday before pulling back, initially supported by US crude stocks falling as shown by API figures, and afterwards cooled by contrary prospects from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, our subscribers were exiting their last oil trade, after the black gold hit the second projected target at $83.40 (see technical chart). U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks, American Petroleum Institute (API) via Investing Regarding the API figures published Tuesday, the decline in crude inventories (with 2.485 million barrels versus 1.900 million barrels expected) implies greater demand and is normally bullish for crude prices (at least in theory). This was indeed the case yesterday, as those figures have supported crude prices in the first place. In the perspective of the figures to be published later today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and according to the median of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the market would expect an increase of 1.6 million barrels, so let’s see whether this figure will be confirmed. Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) In summary, with an oil market progressing (with some rallying limitations set by threats of the US administration to release some of its strategic crude reserves – to relieve the market by artificially increasing the supply) – there is currently no trade position justified from a risk-to-reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold: Don’t Fret the Small Stuff

Gold: Don’t Fret the Small Stuff

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 10.11.2021 14:38
  Do small upswings really matter if one has medium-term goals in mind? Have the bulls come home?  The medium-term back and forth movement in gold continues. If I could make the markets move in a certain direction sooner, and end the prolonged consolidation, I would. However, I can’t, and the only thing that I can do is to report to you what I see on the markets and describe what my course of action will be. During yesterday’s session we saw more of what we’ve been seeing in the previous days. Gold moved higher, and gold stocks moved higher (but in a weak manner), and even though gold moved to new monthly highs, the HUI Index is not even back to its late-October highs. It’s boring, discouraging, and demotivating. But the only thing that we can do is to react to what the market is willing to provide us with. What do yesterday’s and today’s pre-market price moves tell us? First of all, the market tells us that the breakout to new highs in the USD Index is not being invalidated. I know that I’ve written this tens of times, but this factor remains intact and it continues to have very important implications going forward. These are bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the precious metals sector. Second, as I had already written earlier today, gold stocks are not showing strength relative to gold. The gold price just made new monthly highs and is now visibly above its October highs, but the silver price and – most importantly - gold stocks are not. In fact, they are just a little above their mid-October highs. Consequently, the thing that one tends to see in the final parts of a short-term rally remains in place. So, when will the decline in PMs finally continue? Based on what I wrote on Monday – in particular about gold’s reversal points, it’s likely to start soon – perhaps as early as this week. As a quick reminder, you can see gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal on the chart below: And you can see gold’s long-term cyclical turning point on the chart below: The fact that gold moved to its recent medium-term highs is also a factor here. Resistance provided by those highs is quite likely to trigger a reversal in gold, and based on today’s pre-market action, it’s what we might already be seeing right now. The move lower is small so far, but all bigger moves have small beginnings, and given the reversal points and the resistance that gold just encountered, this could be “it”. Also, speaking of resistance levels, on today’s second chart I placed a red resistance line based on the previous highs. It might be tempting to view the price action below it as an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which could have bullish implications. However, let’s keep in mind that without a breakout above the neck level (approximately the previous highs), the formation is not yet complete, and as such it has NO bullish implications whatsoever, as it simply doesn’t exist yet. All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market is not bullish, even though the last several days / weeks might make one feel otherwise. Before viewing the recent move higher as something significant and/or bullish, please consider how tiny this upswing is compared to the decline in gold stocks between May and October. No market moves in a straight line, and periodic corrections are inevitable. It doesn’t make them a start of a new powerful upswing in each case, though. And if the part of the precious metals market that is supposed to rally the most at the start of a major upswing is so weak right now, then why should one expect the current upswing to be anything more than a corrective upswing within a bigger downtrend? Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500: Inflation Fears May Push Stock Prices Lower

S&P 500: Inflation Fears May Push Stock Prices Lower

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 10.11.2021 15:55
  Stocks’ short-term rally came to an end this week and the S&P 500 index entered a consolidation along the 4,700 level. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index lost 0.35% yesterday, as it fell below the 4,700 price mark following two-day-long consolidation along the Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seems overbought in the short-term and most likely it’s trading within a topping pattern. Today we may see another consolidation or a profit taking action following worse than expected inflation data release (the CPI monthly number came at +0.9% vs. the expected +0.6%). The nearest important support level is at 4,650-4,675 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Lost 0.7% on Tuesday Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level recently and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated parabolically above its short-term upward trend line. But yesterday it lost 0.7% and closed below that trend line. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple’s Further Consolidation and Microsoft’s Potential Topping Pattern Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to trade within a consolidation along the $150 level and it is still well below the record highs, and the Microsoft is close to breaking below its over month-long upward trend line. So the tech “megacaps” may be turning lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The broad stock market went slightly lower on Tuesday and we may see a downward continuation this morning. The main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.5% lower following worse (higher) than expected consumer inflation number release. It looks like a topping pattern and we may see a downward correction at some point. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its uptrend last week, but since Friday it is trading within a short-term downtrend. But still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.11.2021 08:53
USDJPY hits temporary resistance The Japanese yen pulled back after a larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q3. The US dollar is looking to hold onto its gains after a rally above 114.00. Sentiment has recovered and a surge above 114.45 around the October peak would resume the uptrend. However, the current rebound may lack the strength to clear the supply zone right away. An overbought RSI has held the bullish fever back. A breach below 113.70 would lead to a deeper correction towards 112.80, which is a key level to keep the rebound relevant. EURCHF struggles for support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s industrial production beat expectations in September. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart has attracted bargain hunters’ attention around 1.0530, a demand area from May 2020. Price action had three failed attempts to lift offers at 1.0600, a sign of strong selling pressure to keep the downtrend going. A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as sellers seek to exit a crowded short bet. A bearish one would send the single currency to 1.0490. UK 100 tests support The FTSE 100 edged lower after active job postings in the UK hit a record high. The index came under pressure at the psychological level of 7400. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence suggests that the rally was losing momentum. Sentiment remains upbeat and a pullback could be an opportunity to get filled at a better price. Trend followers may be waiting to buy the dip near the first support at 7315. A deeper correction would send the price to 7255 along the 30-day moving average.
Silver, the waiting game

Silver, the waiting game

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.11.2021 19:25
Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
XAUUSD (Gold) And XAGUSD (Silver) - A Technical Look

Gold 'n Silver 'n CPI Oh My!

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 15.11.2021 09:26
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 626th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 13 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com  Let's start with October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: its excitedly-disseminated reading was +0.9% (which annualized is a whopping +10.8%). "Oh, 'tis the worst in 30 years!", they say. "Oh, 'tis the worst in 40 years!", some say. We say: "C'est très exagéré." Why? Because Labor has established this level -- or higher -- three times prior during the 24 years of our maintaining the Economic Barometer: for September 2005 'twas +1.2%; for June 2008 'twas +1.1%; and recently for this past June 'twas (as is now) a like +0.9%. Here's that history: Such exaggerative reporting of this October's +0.9% CPI growth arguably does have merit, for 'tis a very concerning rate of inflation. However as Grandpa Hugh would encourage today's news desks : "Get it first, but FIRST, get it RIGHT!" as opposed to the current-day media mantra of "Fake it FIRST, but fake it as FACT!" 'Course there are other sources that find far greater inflation; however in sticking with Labor's "official" measure, glaringly missing from the subsequent reportage is that -- following those three prior inflationary pops -- came cooling over at least the few ensuing months. 'Tis per the rightmost column of "next" three-month CPI average growth in the below table: Again, ours is not to belittle the seriousness of October's +0.9% CPI rise; rather 'tis to simply show it in the context of historical fact. Please notify a media outlet near you. Seriousness, indeed. For of further practical import (on the assumption that neither do you eat, nor use petroleum-based products), October's Core-CPI growth of +0.6% has already been realized four times just in the prior 15 months. Critical concern there, and justifiably so given the price of Oil has risen from 39.82 at mid-year 2020 to 83.22 at October 2021's settle (+109%). For from the "That's Scary Dept." the cumulative rise in the full CPI across that same 16-month-to-date stint is only +7.3% ... solely by that metric, folks have been gettin' off easy despite higher petrol prices! Fortunately, Gold and Silver may be FINALLY gettin' off their respective butts via their inflation mitigative role. Which obviously points to their having so much farther up to go. Per our opening Gold Scoreboard, price settled out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1868, its second-best single-week performance thus far this year on both a points (+47.7) and percentage (+2.6%) basis. Thus comparatively, 'tis a fine leap forward for Gold. However as you ad nausea already know, even in accounting for its supply increase, Gold by StateSide M2 currency debasement "ought" today be 3986. As well is the ever-annoying fact of Gold first hitting the present 1868 level a decade ago on 19 August 2011 when the money supply was just 44% of what 'tis today, ($9.457 trillion vs. $21.343 trillion). "Got Gold?" And as for Sweet Sister Silver, 'twas her third best weekly performance year-to-date, albeit settling yesterday at 25.41 is a price first achieved 11 years ago on 04 November 2010. "Got Silver?" (Oh and from the "Gold Plays No Currency Favourites Dept." the Dollar recorded its fifth best up week of the year. "Got Bucks?" We'd rather Swiss Francs). Moreover, from our always revered "The Trend is Your Friend Dept." as we saw a week ago, Gold's weekly parabolic trend -- after an intolerably lengthy stint as Short with little net price decline -- did flip to Long. And as is the rule rather than the exception, price this past week continued higher. Which begs your question: "How much does price rise when this happens, mmb?" Bang on cue there, Squire. And the answer is: across the 43 prior Long weekly parabolic trends since 2001, the median increase in the price of Gold is +8.3%. Thus by that number, from Gold's trend flip price back at 1820, an +8.3% increase this time 'round would bring us to 1971. Modest perhaps by valuation expectations, but a start. Too, some of you may recall this sentence from our 02 October missive wherein we nixed our year's forecast high of 2401: "...The more likely scenario shall well be Gold just sloshing around into year-end, trading during Q4 between 1668-1849..." Fab to already be wrong there! For here are the weekly bars and parabolic trends from this time a year ago-to-date: Now in the midst of all this inflation trepidation came Dow Jones Newswires this past week with "The Economic Rebound From Covid-19 Was Easy. Now Comes the Hard Part." Makes sense given everything having been shutdown last year. But: how bona fide actually is "Rebound"? Let's look at corporate earnings, (now yer not gonna get this anywhere else, so pay attention): with but a week to run in Q3 Earnings Season, most of the S&P 500 constituents that report within this calendar timeframe have so done, and with fairly admirable results: 80% bettered their bottom lines, (or as we said a week ago "better have bettered" given the economic shutdown of last year). Yet here's the dirty little secret: many mid-tier and smaller companies have also reported, by our count 1,368 of 'em. And of that bunch, we found just 56% of them did better. That is a Big Red Flag given mid-to-small businesses drive the American economy. We doubt your money manager knows that number. In addition to the past week's inflation reports, lost in the shuffle were the Econ Baro metrics showing September's Wholesale Inventories as backing up, whilst November's University of Michigan Sentiment Survey fell to a 10-year low, the 66.8 level not seen since November 2011. 'Course the S&P loving bad news, its Index roared upward to finish the week at 4683, a mere 36 points below its all-time high. Together with the Baro, here's the year-over year picture: Now to some impressive precious metals' technicals via our two-panel graphic of Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right. "Impressive" as when the falling baby blue dots of trend consistency reverse course back up without having dropped to mid-chart, the buyers are clearly in charge: As for the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), life is good at the top: Good as well is Gold's buoyant positioning within its stack: The Gold StackGold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 3986Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 2089 (07 August 2020)Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 2075 (06 August 2020)2021's High: 1963 (06 January)The Gateway to 2000: 1900+10-Session directional range: up to 1871 (from 1759) = +112 points or +6.4%Trading Resistance: none per the ProfileGold Currently: 1868, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 25 points)Trading Support: Profile notables are 1864 / 1827 / 1793The 300-Day Moving Average: 1822 and falling10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1816The Final Frontier: 1800-1900The Northern Front: 1800-1750On Maneuvers: 1750-1579The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 16862021's Low: 1673 (08 March) The Floor: 1579-1466Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466The Support Shelf: 1454-1434Base Camp: 1377The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr '18 preceded by 1362 in Sep '17Neverland: The Whiny 1290sThe Box: 1280-1240 Next week brings 14 metrics into the Econ Baro; consensus expectations look for it to turn higher. To be sure, turning higher have been Gold and Silver as inflation their prices stir; and yet their levels now 10 years on are the same as they were; thus their doubling from here can well be a blur! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
MSFT, Johnson&Johnson and More Companies With Reports to be Released shortly

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 14 November 2021

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 15.11.2021 11:20
The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts. The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Hope you enjoy! p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!) Subscribe Now 1. Vacciversary: Can you believe, an entire year has passed since the Pfizer vaccine announcement. Markets had a strong immediate reaction, and since then have chalked up some 34% in gains. Of course a bunch of other factors are also at play, and we also had delta along the way, but you have to think at some level if there were no vaccine that the ride in markets might have been a little rougher. Source: @LarryAdamRJ 2. Investor Movement Index: The IMX moved down slightly in October - this continues the pattern of movement downwards from the peak in optimism of a few months ago. This is typically not a healthy sign for sentiment indicators i.e. reaching an extreme and then leveling off. Source: TD Ameritrade 3. Investment Manager Index: On the other hand, the Markit IMI rebounded further in November with risk appetite surging to multi-month highs and expected returns reaching a new (albeit short history - newish survey) high. Source: @IHSMarkitPMI 4. Euphoriameter: Even my own Euphoriameter composite sentiment indicator has ticked higher so far in November as valuations and bullish surveyed sentiment remain high and volatility lulls back towards complacency. Source: @topdowncharts 5. Investor Sentiment vs Consumer Sentiment: But not all sentiment indicators are at the highs: consumer sentiment has been decidedly less optimistic. I mentioned in a recent video that the UoM consumer sentiment indicator was perhaps overstating the extent of the decline, but the other 2 consumer confidence indicators I track for the USA have also started to drop off recently. This has left quite the divergence between consumer sentiment and investor sentiment. A large part of this is probably down to the inflationary shock that is currently facing the global economy due to pandemic disruption to the global supply chain *and* unprecedented monetary + fiscal stimulus (remember: supply shortages/backlogs and the associated inflation surge don’t exist if there is no demand —> demand has been boosted by stimulus —> and stimulus helps stocks ——> gap explained). Source: @takis2910 6. Real Earnings Yield: Another effect of the surge in inflation has been a plunge in the real earnings yield: again this can be squared up by noting that stimulus has been a key driver of the inflation shock and a key driver of the surge in asset prices —> surging asset prices (stock prices) leads to a lower nominal earnings yield (again: gap explained). So is this a problem? Perhaps, but one way or the other it will probably be transitory (if you can read between the lines a little there!!). Source: @LizAnnSonders 7. Valuations: Valuations rising = risks rising... but then again it's a bull market, so POLR is higher (for now). n.b. “POLR” = path of least resistance: basic notion that in markets and life when a force is set in motion an object will not change its motion/trajectory unless another force acts on it... That means a bull market will carry on until something changes e.g. a crisis, monetary policy tightening, recession, regulations/politics, (or a combination of all of those!). Source: @mark_ungewitter 8. Household Financial Asset Allocations: We all know by now that equity allocations by households is at/near record highs. But one surprise: cash holdings have jumped and are apparently on par with debt (bonds etc) ...even as cash rates suck (and are even suckier when you consider the real interest rate). Probably an element of booking gains, stimulus payments, and precautionary savings. Recall though: the job of cash is preservation of capital (and optionality) vs generating returns, as such. Source: @MikeZaccardi 9. S&P500 Constituents Return Distribution: I thought this was interesting - especially the tails of the distribution - a lot of heavy lifting being done at the tails. But also that ”s” — tails (i.e. big dispersion between left and right tails). Source: @spglobal via @bernardiniv68 10. The Five Biggest Stocks: The bigness of the biggest stocks in the index is biggening more bigly. Serious though: the market is increasingly lop-sided, this means diversification may be diminishing as systematic risk will be increasingly driven by specific risk. Source: @biancoresearch Thanks for following, I appreciate your interest! !! BONUS CHART: Leveraged ETF trading indicator >> Click through to the ChartStorm Substack to see the bonus chart section https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-14-november Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
The Greenback Slips at the Start the New Week

The Greenback Slips at the Start the New Week

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 15.11.2021 12:19
Overview:  While the Belarus-Poland border remains an intense standoff, there have been a couple other diplomatic developments that may be exciting risk appetites today.  First, Biden and Xi will talk by phone later today.  Second, reports suggest the UK has toned down its rhetoric making progress on talks on the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol.  Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mostly firmer, with China a notable exception among the large markets, even though the October data was generally stronger than expected.  Europe's Stoxx 600, which has fallen only once this month, is edging higher to new records, while US futures are enjoying a firmer bias.  Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower, which puts the Treasury yield near 1.55%.  The European periphery is outperforming the core.  The dollar is soft.  The Scandis and Antipodeans lead the move, while the euro, yen, and British pound are little changed.  Emerging market currencies are also mostly stronger.  Here the Philippine peso is notable as it falls the most in seven weeks as corporates bought dollars.  After falling by 0.65% last week, the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is edging higher today.  Gold is snapping a seven-day rally, stalling near $1868.  Support is seen in the $1842-$1845 area.  January WTI  was sold again as it poked above $80.  It is pinned near last week's lows (~$78.65) as the US response is awaited.  European natural gas futures are firm as the capacity auction results are awaited, and Europe faces its first cold snap of the season.  Iron ore and copper prices are posting small losses.   Asia Pacific Japan's Q3 GDP disappointed, but it is old news and will likely spur Prime Minister Kishida to support a large supplemental budget, which could be unveiled by the end of the week.  Economic growth in the world's third-largest economy contracted for the fifth quarter in the past eight.  The 0.8% loss of output in Q3 was more than the 0.2% expected by the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey.  Consumption (-1.1%), business spending (-3.8%), and public investment (-1.5%) did the most damage.  The GDP deflator was unchanged from Q2 at -1.1%.  The Japanese economy is recovering here in Q4.  Talk of the size of the supplemental budget has increased to around JPY40 trillion (~$350 bln) from JPY30 trillion.  It is expected to include a cash payment for 18-year olds and younger, a tax break for companies that boost wages, a new subsidy for domestic travel, snd pay hikes for caregivers. China's October data was stronger than expected but does not shake off concern that the world's second-largest economy is struggling.  The year-over-year pace of retail sales rose for the second consecutive month in the face of expectations for a decline.  The 4.9% increase follows the 4.4% gain in September and 2.5% in August. In October 2020, it rose 4.3% year-over-year.  Industrial output rose 3.5% from a year ago. It was the first increase since March. Last October, it had increased by 6.9%. The surveyed joblessness was steady at 4.9%.  Fixed asset investment and property investment slowed.  Chinese officials have not addressed the economic slowdown with large-scale fiscal or monetary initiatives.   We have suggested that the dollar-yen exchange rate has entered a new range after trending higher from mid-September through mid-October.  That new range is likely JPY113-JPY115, and to find the floor, the dollar briefly traded below JPY112.80 last week. After spiking back to JPY114.00 on the US CPI surprise, the greenback continues to hover around there, the middle of the range.  Tomorrow's expiring options ($830 mln at JPY113.40 and $1.6 bln at JPY114.30) may mark the near-term range.  The Australian dollar is building on its pre-weekend recovery.  It saw a low slightly above $0.7275 on Friday and settled on its highs (a little above $0.7330).  It has risen to $0.7365, and the intraday momentum is getting stretched.  Look for resistance near $0.7375.  The greenback edged slightly lower against the Chinese yuan to record a new six-month low (~CNY6.3785) before recovering within a narrow range.  It is trading slightly above CNY6.3830 in late dealings. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3896, a little below the median forecast of CNY6.3896 (Bloomberg survey).  The PBOC rolled over in full the policy loans (CNY1 trillion) coming due this month, and the overnight repo rate fell by seven basis points to 1.78%, the lowest in three weeks.   Europe Tensions between the UK and EU appear to have taken a step away from the brink.  A deal on medicine supplies from other parts of Great Britain to Northern Ireland may have been the critical catalyst.  Reports suggest a de-escalation of UK rhetoric threatening to invoke Article 16, which allows for unilateral over-riding of the Northern Ireland Protocol under certain circumstances of serious economic, environmental, or societal risks.  Separately, two polls have begun showing Labour is edging ahead of the Tories. The Opinium poll (published in the Guardian) gave Labour a one percentage point lead, the first since January.  The Savanta Com Res poll (for the Daily Mail) put Labour ahead by six percentage points at 40%.  The main issue appears to be Prime Minister Johnson's handling of several ethics issues.  His personal support has also waned.    The US was warning at the end of last week that Russian may be preparing to invade Ukraine. Moscow seems to be acting out of fear, fear of the US and Europe creeping presence in Ukraine.  If Ukraine is going to remain independent, Russia insists it can only be a (weak) buffer state.  US rhetoric seemed aggressive in Moscow.  Last month US Defense Secretary Austin argued that no third country [i.e., Russia] has a veto over NATO membership decision[i.e., Ukraine].    Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are considering formally requesting NATO consultations, while the EU is expected to announce new sanctions on Belarus later today.  Separately, we note reports that India has begun taking delivery of the S-400 air defense missile system from Russia (part of a $5.5 bln deal), which is the same that earned Turkey American sanctions.   The euro edged above the pre-weekend high, but the tone remains fragile, and for the third consecutive session has been unable to resurface above old support at $1.1500.  Since the US CPI report in the middle of last week, it has fallen, and the sideways movement could alleviate the overextended technical condition.  Sterling extended its pre-weekend recovery to reach $1.3440 before sellers reemerged to knock it to the session low of almost $1.3400.  We suspect it can move higher in North America today and target the $1.3480 area.   America The US seems more eager for the Biden-Xi call than Beijing  Expectations should be low, and with no actionable outcome likely (not even a statement), there appears to be little reason to spin it as a virtual summit. The top officials and the senior staff of the two largest economies should talk.  Previously, there were high-level meetings regularly.  Since their last call, a new US-UK-Australian alliance was announced that will result in Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, and it was confirmed that the US has had military personnel in Taiwan since last November.  China continues with its intimidation campaign of repeatedly entering Taiwan's air-identification zone. China's assessment of the US is unlikely to have changed.  Beijing sees the same thing many others do.  Biden's approval rating has fallen to near 41%, and less than that has a favorable view of his handling of the economy.  At the end of last week, the Univerity of Michigan's consumer sentiment measure (preliminary November) fell to its lowest in a decade.  Surveys continue to point to the likelihood that the Democratic Party will lose both houses of Congress in next year's mid-term.  And to underscore the pressure on Biden, the US Court of Appeals (5th Circuit) sustained a block on OSHA's ordered vaccine mandate (or weekly test).  With the sixth plenum over,  Xi has, by all accounts, confirmed his ascendancy and domination of Chinese politics for years to come.   The week's economic calendar for the US begins off slowly.  The November Empire State manufacturing survey is on tap.  It has been in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between gains and losses for the past five months.  It fell sharply (19.8 from 34.3) in October and is expected to have turned up in November.  The US reports October retail sales and industrial production figures tomorrow. Fed officials begin taking to the public stage starting tomorrow.  Over the course of the week, around 11 officials are scheduled to speak.  In addition to US bills, the Treasury Dept sells 20-year bonds, whose auctions have been among the most challenging for coupons, and 10-year TIPS at the end of the week.   Canada reports September manufacturing and wholesale sales today, but the October existing home sales may be more important.  Tomorrow Canada reports housing starts, but the highlight of the week is Wednesday's October CPI.  Price pressures are accelerating in Canada, and the headline CPI is likely to move toward 5% (4.4% in September).  The swaps market is pricing in about 65 bp of tightening in six months.  This week, Mexico has a light economic diary after last week's higher than expected CPI (6.24%) and Banxcio's 25 bp rate hike (to 5%).  Brazil also has a light economic calendar this week.  Last week featured a further rise in (IPCA) CPI (10.67% vs. 10.25%) and weak September retail sales (-1.3% vs. -0.6% median forecast in Bloomberg's survey after a revised -4.3% fall in August). Last week's US CPI shocker saw the greenback jump from around CAD1.24 to slightly above CAD1.26, roughly the 50% retracement of the slump from CAD1.2900 on September 20.  It settled last week on a soft note, and some follow-through selling has seen the US dollar eased to about CAD1.2525.  A break here sees CAD1.2500 and then possibly CAD1.2470.  Since last September, the greenback has moved into a new and higher range against the Mexican peso.  It has not traded much below MN20.12.  Nor has it spent much time above MXN20.90.  It is in the pre-weekend range (~MXN20.45-MXN20.72).  Look for the consolidative day to continue through the local session.  The Brazil real was the strongest emerging market currency last week, rising almost 1.6% against the US dollar.  The US dollar found support around BRK5.40. Trendline support (from June, August, and September lows) and the 200-day moving average are near BRL5.36.   Disclaimer
Will You Allow Gold to Break Your Heart?

Will You Allow Gold to Break Your Heart?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 15.11.2021 15:46
Infatuated with gold? Many people are, but love affairs with commodities (or stocks) are dangerous. They’ll steal your heart, then dump you.Our critics often forget that we’re focusing on the medium-term outlook in precious metals, not intraday price moves. They’ll say “Look, gold moved up today. You were wrong Radomski.” That’s nice, but where will it be one or two months from now?While gold, silver, and mining stocks’ optimism resurfaced with a vengeance last week, the trio have broken plenty of hearts since peaking in August 2020. Thus, will the current rallies end in marriage or be another mirage?To begin, while the HUI Index/gold ratio invalidated the breakdown below its rising support line, a similar development occurred in 2013 and the downtrend still resumed.On top of that, I marked (with the shaded red boxes below) just how similar the current price action is to 2013. And back then, after a sharp decline was followed by a small corrective upswing before the plunge, the ratio’s current behavior mirrors its historical counterpart. Furthermore, the end of the corrective upswing in 2013 occurred right before the gold price sunk to its previous lows (marked with red vertical dashed lines in the middle of the chart below). Thus, the ratio is already sending ominous warnings about the PMs’ future path.Even more revealing, the ratio is dangerously close to its 200-day moving average. And when a similar development occurred in 2013 – with the ratio rising slightly above its 200-day moving average (marked with the red vertical dashed line below) – a sharp reversal occurred, mining stocks materially underperformed, and the ratio plunged.Please see below:Likewise, while the GDX ETF rallied again last week, I warned previously that a corrective upswing to $35 was a possibility (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, the air should come out of the balloon sooner rather than later.Please see below:To explain, the GDX ETF rallied on huge volume on Nov. 11 and there were only 4 cases in the recent past when we saw something like that after a visible short-term rally.In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX was after a sharp daily rally.In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX-based RSI indicator (upper part of the chart above) was trading close to 70.The rallies that immediately preceded these 4 cases:The July 27, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 29-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 42% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 24% of time).The November 5, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 5- trading -day rally that took the GDX about 14%-15% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (20% of time).The January 4, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 26-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 17%-18% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (about 4% of time).The May 17, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 52-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 30% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 13% of time).So, as you can see, these sessions have even more in common than it seemed at first sight. The sessions formed soon before the final tops (4% - 24% of time of the preceding rally before the final top), but the prices didn’t move much higher compared to how much they had already rallied before the high-volume sessions.Consequently, since the history tends to rhyme, we can expect the GDX ETF to move a bit higher here, but not significantly so, and we can expect this extra move higher to take between an additional 0 and 7 trading days (based on the Nov. 12 session, so as of Nov. 15 it’s between 0 and 6 trading days).Why 0 – 6 trading days (as of today – Nov. 15)? Because with the 4% timeline now in the rearview, the latter represents the updated 24% timeline based on the preceding rally (that took 30 trading days).Since it’s unlikely to take the mining stocks much higher, and the reversal could take place as soon as today (also in gold and silver price), I don’t think that making adjustments to the current short positions in the mining stocks is justified from the risk to reward point of view.Is there a meaningful resistance level that would be likely to trigger a decline in mining stocks? Yes! The GDX ETF is just below its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the August 2020 – September 2021 decline. The resistance is slightly above $35, so that’s when the final top could form.As for the GDXJ ETF, the gold junior miners have already hit their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (potential resistance) and the top may be upon us. Moreover, when the GDXJ ETF’s RSI increased above (or near) 70 in mid-2020 and in mid-2021, sharp drawdowns followed.As a result, those historical readings provided us with great shorting opportunities.In conclusion, investors have fallen in love with gold, silver, and mining stocks once again. However, when it comes time for matrimony, the precious metals often leave investors at the altar. As a result, while we remain bullish on gold, silver, and mining stocks’ long-term prospects, timing is important. And while the recent upswings may seem like the beginning of a new bull market, several reliable indicators beg to differ. Thus, caution is warranted, and new lows will likely materialize over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Getting Real on PMs and Inflation

Getting Real on PMs and Inflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.11.2021 15:47
S&P 500 indeed rose but bond markets couldn‘t keep the encouraging opening gains. Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of maximum the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022).Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance – just look at VIX calming down again. It‘s that the debt ceiling drama resolution would allow the Treasury to start issuing fresh debt, and that would weigh heavily on the dollar. That‘s a good part of what gold and silver are sniffing out, and if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon.Precious metals are going to do great, and keep scoring excellent gains. Surpassing $1,950 isn‘t out of the realm of possibilities, but I prefer to be possitioned aggressively while having more conservative expectations. Not missing a dime this way. Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. If in doubt, look at cryptos, how shallow the corrections there are.A few more words on yields – as more fresh Treasury issued debt enters the markets, look for yields to rise. Coming full circle to stocks and my Friday‘s expectations:(…) TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely.TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are on the move, and let‘s see how far they make it before running into another (mild, again I say) setback.Credit MarketsCredit markets opening strength fizzled out, but the weakness is getting long in the tooth kind of. I view it as a short-term non-confirmation of the S&P 500 upswing only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are on a tear, and rightfully so – I am looking for further gains as both gold and silver miners confirm, and the macroeconomic environment is superb for PMs.Crude OilCrude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – after Friday, its test is looking as an increasingly remote possibility – the two lower knots in a series say. Anyway, black gold will overcome $85 before too long.CopperCopper ran while commodities paused – that‘s a very bullish sign, for both base and precious metals. The lower volume isn‘t necessarily a warning sign.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls – and they‘re peeking higher already.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are holding the short-term upper hand, but the rally may run into headwinds shortly. Still, we‘re looking at a trading range followed by fresh highs as a worst case scenario. Yes, I remain a stock market bull, not expecting a serious setback till probably the third month of 2022. Precious metals are my top pick, followed by copper – and I am definitely not writing off oil, let alone cryptos. Inflation trades are simply back!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Approaches Supply Zone

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Approaches Supply Zone

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.11.2021 09:28
XAUUSD tests trendlineGold continues on its way up as investors seek to hedge against inflationary pressures. The rally picked up steam after a break above the triple top at 1833. Price action is grinding up along a rising trendline.The bulls are pushing towards 1884, a major resistance where last June’s sell-off started. Strong selling pressure is possible in that supply zone as short-term buyers may take profit and reassess the directional bias.1855 on the trendline is the first support. A bearish breakout may trigger a correction to 1823.AUDUSD breaks above bearish channelThe Australian dollar softened after the RBA minutes reiterated that there will be no rate hike until 2024.The pair has found buying interest at the base of October’s bullish breakout (0.7280). A break above the falling channel indicates that sentiment could be turning around.0.7390 is a key resistance and its breach could prompt sellers to bail out. In turn, this would raise volatility in the process. Traders may then switch sides in anticipation of a reversal. An overbought RSI has so far limited the upside impetus.GER 40 rally gains tractionThe Dax 40 climbed after upbeat retail sales and industrial production in China lifted market sentiment.The index is seeking to consolidate its recent gains after it cleared the previous peak at 15990 which has now turned into support. Sentiment remains optimistic and 16300 would be the next step.An overbought RSI on the daily chart may temporarily put the brakes on the bullish fever. But a pullback may once again attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd above 15990. A deeper correction may send the price towards 15770.
The Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Market Watchlist this Quarter

The Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Market Watchlist this Quarter

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.11.2021 12:10
https://investmacro.com/2021/11/the-top-5-companies-added-to-our-stock-market-watchlist-this-quarter/ Body: By InvestMacro The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately halfway over and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. The QuantStock system is an algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall strength trends to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks halfway through Quarter 4 of 2021: Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care, Large Cap, 4.29% Dividend, Our Grade = A Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is first up and is a company engaged in developing innovative therapies for life-threatening diseases. Its medicine portfolio includes treatment for conditions ranging from HIV and hepatitis to coronavirus and cardiovascular disorders. If we talk about its financial performance, the bio-pharmaceutical company recently crushed expectations for the third quarter. It posted adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion for the quarter ended September 30. The results easily beat the consensus forecast of $1.76 per share for earnings and $6.29 billion for revenue. If we look at its key financial metrics, Gilead stock is currently trading around $67.48 against its 52-week range of $56.56 – $73.34. Moreover, its P/E value is 11.55, while the company’s total market value is just over $84 billion.   US Steel Materials, Small Cap, 0.77% Dividend, Our Grade = A- United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), founded in 1901, is one of the leading steel producers in the U.S. The strong demand for steel helped the company post better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter. United States Steel reported adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share for the three months ended September 30, beating expectations of $4.85 per share. Quarterly revenue of $5.96 billion also surpassed the consensus forecast of $5.79 billion. If we look at the recent price movement, United States Steel stock has gained more than 50 percent value so far in 2021. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.72 – $30.57, while the total market value of the company is approx. $7 billion.   Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 3.18% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is one of the world’s biggest hard disk drives (HDDs) makers. It still generates a large portion of its revenue by selling traditional HDDs. The company last month announced better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter, driven by solid demand from cloud data center clients. Seagate reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $3.12 billion for the three months ended October 1, while analysts were looking for earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $3.11 billion. The impressive financial performance drove Seagate stock higher in recent weeks. Seagate stock is now up nearly 80 percent on a year-to-date basis.   Synchrony Financial Financials, Medium Cap, 1.68% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) has vast experience in the financial sector. It is one of the biggest credit card issuers in the U.S., working with hundreds of retailers to support their credit card plans. The company last month announced a solid profit for the third quarter. Synchrony reported earnings of $2 per share, significantly higher than 52 cents per share in the comparable period of 2020 and better than the consensus forecast of $1.52 per share. If we see its recent price trend, Synchrony has grown its value at a decent pace so far in 2021. The company’s share price has increased about 47 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $29.32 – $52.49, while its P/E ratio stands at 7.10.   Lazard Ltd Financials, Small Cap, 3.98% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) specializes in financial advisory and asset management services. It mainly advises clients on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital structure, and restructuring plans. It has advised on some of the biggest and most complicated M&A deals of the last century. If we look at its financial performance, Lazard posted mixed results for the third quarter. Its earnings of 98 cents per share exceeded the expectations of 95 cents per share. However, the quarterly revenue of $702 million missed analysts’ average estimate of $715 million. Lazard stock traded mostly lower following the results. Nevertheless, the company’s share price is still up nearly 15 percent on a year-to-date basis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies. All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold!

Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 16.11.2021 14:13
Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead? I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years? A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate. B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy. C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy. D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general. Please guess which option the US government chose. Yes, the worst possible. Exam failed! At the beginning of November, Congress passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And President Biden signed it on Monday (November 15, 2021). To be clear, I’m not claiming that America doesn’t need any investment in infrastructure. Perhaps it needs it, and perhaps it’s a better idea than social spending on unemployment benefits that discourage work. I don’t want to argue about the adequacy of large government infrastructure projects, although government spending generally fails to stimulate genuine economic growth and governments rarely outperform the private sector in effectiveness. My point is that $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending is coming at the worst possible moment. The US economy is facing supply shortages and high inflation caused by surging demand, which choked the ports and factories. In short, too much money is chasing too few goods, and policymakers decided to add additional money into the already blocked supply chains! I have no words of admiration for the intellectual abilities of the members of Congress and the White House! Indeed, the spending plan does not have to be inflationary if financed purely by taxes and borrowing. However, the Fed will likely monetize at least part of the newly issued federal debt, and you know, to build or repair infrastructure, workers are needed, and steel, and concrete, and energy. The infrastructure spending, thus, will add pressure to the ongoing energy crisis and high producer price inflation, not to mention the shortage of workers. Implications for Gold What does the passing of the infrastructure bill imply for the gold market? Well, it should be supportive of the yellow metal. First, it will increase the fiscal deficits by additional billions of dollars (the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will enlarge the deficits by $256 billion). Second, government spending will add to the inflationary pressure, which gold should also welcome. After all, gold recalled last week that it is a hedge against high and accelerating inflation. As the chart below shows, gold not only jumped above the key level of $1,800, but it even managed to cross $1,850 on renewed inflation worries. The infrastructure bill was probably discounted by the traders, so its impact on the precious metals market should be limited. However, generally, all news that could intensify inflationary fears should be supportive of the yellow metal. You see, the narrative has changed. So far, the thinking was that higher inflation implies faster tapering and interest rates hikes and, thus, lower gold prices. This is why gold was waiting on the sidelines for the past several months despite high inflation. Investors also believed that inflation would be transitory. However, the recent CPI report forced the markets to embrace the fact that inflation could be more persistent. What’s more, tapering of quantitative easing started, which erased some downward pressure on gold. Moreover, despite the slowdown in the pace of asset purchases, the Fed will maintain its accommodative stance and stay behind the curve. So, at the moment, the reasoning is that high inflation implies elevated fears, which is good for gold. I have always believed that gold’s more bullish reaction to accelerating inflation was a matter of time. It’s possible that this time has just come. Having said that, investors should remember that market narratives can change quickly. At some point, the Fed will probably step in and send some hawkish signals, which could calm investors and pull some of them out of the gold market. My second concern is that gold could have reacted not to accelerating inflation, but rather to the plunge in the real interest rates. As the chart below shows, the yields on 10-year TIPS have dropped to -1.17, a level very close to the August bottom. When something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again. However, I’ll stop complaining now and allow the bulls to celebrate the long-awaited breakout. It’s an interesting development compared to the last months, that’s for sure! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
The Elephant in the Room

The Elephant in the Room

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.11.2021 15:42
S&P 500 is starting to run into a setback even if VIX doesn‘t reveal that fully. Credit markets going from weakness to weakness spells more short-term woes for stocks – a shallow downswing that feels (and is) a trading range before the surge to new ATHs continues, is likely to materialize in the second half of Nov. We may be in its opening stages – as written yesterday: (…) Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022). Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance. The elephant in the room is (the absence of) fresh debt issuance lifting up the dollar, making it like rising yields more. Not only that these are failing to push value higher, but the tech resilience highlights the defensive nature of S&P 500 performance. Crucially though, precious metals are seeing through the (misleading dollar strength) fog, and are sharply rising regardless. Make no mistake, with the taper reaction, we have seen what I had been expecting (or even better given that I prefer reasonably conservative stance without drumming up expectations either way) – I had been telling you that the hardest times for the metals are before taper. And the magnitude and pace of their upswing casts a verdict on the Fed‘s (likely in)ability to follow through with the taper execution, let alone initiate the rate raising cycle without being laughed off the stage as markets force these regardless of the central planners. The galloping inflation expectations are sending a very clear message: (…) if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon. Precious metals are going to do great… Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value. Let me add the Russell 2000 and emerging markets to the well performing medium-term mix. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls didn‘t make it too far before running into another (mild, again I say) setback – so far, a sideways one. Credit Markets Credit markets renewed their march lower, and unless they turn, the S&P 500 upswings would remain on shaky ground (if and when they materialize). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver remain on a tear, and even for the breather to unfold, it takes quite an effort. The bears clearly can‘t hope for a trend change. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – these consecutive lower knots keep favoring the bulls, just when the right catalyst arrives. Whether that takes one or two days or more, is irrelevant – it will happen. Copper Copper ran into an unexpected setback, which however doesn‘t change the outlook thanks to its relatively low volume. I‘m still looking for much higher red metal‘s prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are seeing an emerging crack in the dam that doesn‘t tie too well to developments elsewhere. The bulls should step in, otherwise this yellow flag risks turning into a red one. Summary S&P 500 bulls are now holding only the medium-term upper hand as the rally is entering a consolidation phase. Anyway, this trading range would be followed by fresh ATHs, which would power stocks even higher in early 2022. Precious metals have quite some catching up to do, and the long post Aug 2020 consolidation is over. Copper, base metals, oil and agrifoods are likely to keep doing great as inflation expectations show that inflation truly hasn‘t been tamed in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Strategy sessions - How to trade EURUSD and the EUR crosses

Strategy sessions - How to trade EURUSD and the EUR crosses

Chris Weston Chris Weston 16.11.2021 16:30
The recent EURUSD move could be considered a classic case study for traders, across strategies, and notably for those who cut their craft on timeframes larger than 30 minutes. On one hand, the attraction to own USDs is almost too obvious and that worries me as a USD bull – we have inflation far higher than where the Fed has been forecasting only back in September and unemployment is also trending towards what the Fed considers ‘full employment’. We get the November CPI print on 11 December and that promises to be even hotter than the October print of 6.2% YoY. The Fed meet on 16 December, and in response we should get some punchy upward revisions to their forecasts on labour and inflation. Given the potential revisions on economic projections, it feels incredibly likely that the pace of QE tapering should subsequently accelerate - this sets up an earlier finish for asset purchases and ultimately opens the door to potentially start hiking from as early as May 2022. The Fed’s median projection for the fed funds rate (the dots) in 2022 is for one hike – it’s feasible to believe this lifts to two hikes next year. So, it's straightforward to take a constructive view on the USD, especially when you hear from former Fed officials Bill Dudley and Jeffery Lacker that they think the fed funds rate may need to move to 3% to control inflation. That would get the USD bulls excited, although 3% would probably be seen as a potential policy mistake by many. Year-to-date moves vs the USD Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The market has some key event risks in its sight and are clearly running a progressively greater short EURUSD position into the Nov CPI print and FOMC meeting – and that has started now. We also have an important ECB meeting (also on the 16 December) and that too could be a volatility event – it promises to be a huge 24 hours for EURUSD and the EUR crosses! We can talk up the USD but looking across the FX universe this appears to be a EUR move, with our EUR spot basket (EURX on MT4/5) at the lowest levels since May 2020. Aside from the JPY, the EUR is the weakest G10 currency in 2021 – and is at the bottom of the pack on a 1-, 3- or 6- month basis – a true momentum play. EURUSD has been at the heart of the falls in our EUR basket and has been predictably well traded by clients. Maybe this is as simple as a central bank divergence play – with the ECB aggressively pushing back on expected rate hikes in 2022, hell-bent on the view that inflation is in fact ‘transitory’. While the Fed, on the other hand, are open-minded to hiking, if it's required, and the market certainly is adamant it will be in 2022 - and could soon be pricing 3 hikes in 2022. Trading diverging monetary policy paths is perhaps the most simplistic form of tactical trading, in essence, it's FX trading 101, and it's working and we’re all witnessing the trend lower. We’re seeing a similar theme play out in EURCAD and EURNZD, and EURCAD is especially interesting as the cross has broken its consolidation range and if we see a hot Canadian CPI print (Thursday 00:00 AEDT) then the market will expect a rate hike in January by the BoC. Diverging monetary policy expectation’s part explains the move in EURCHF, but it clearly doesn’t explain the one-way move in EURJPY from 133.50 to sub-130. As we explain here EURCHF should be on all FX traders’ radars. So the market is clearly happy to sell EURs and the order books at banks would have become quite one-sided. Trend-followers and momentum-based funds, many of them systematic, would have been all over this move lower adding to shorts as price broke level after level. And, while EURUSD implied or realised volatility hasn’t picked up markedly, the rallies from 1.2260 (in May) have been corrective in nature and short-lived Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The question I'm asking now and noting that US non-farm payrolls, CPI and FOMC meetings are still some way off, is how to best trade the EURUSD in the near term. That's of course determined by strategy – in this case, mean reversion or momentum. To buy EURUSD as a mean reversion play – personally, I feel the counter rallies should be limited so would change to an ultra-short-term moving average (such as the 5-day EMA) over a traditional 20-day MA Leave limit orders to sell into the former downtrend at 1.1415, or take the timeframe in and see the reaction, price action and behaviour into the former trend before initiating shorts Or, just to stay short as a pure momentum trade and have a stop above 1.1464. One way moves and mature trends eventually come to an end, notably when positioning becomes too extreme – over loved consensus trades rarely end well if you’re the last one in. However, while the street is clearly short of EURs, the fundamentals justify this and if heat come out of the move, then it should offer a renewed chance to short as we head into a huge December for FX traders.  That’s how I see it as we head towards a wild December of major event risk.
Bitcoin, a battle for freedom

Bitcoin, a battle for freedom

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.11.2021 08:01
We find ourselves ensued in various battles. Environmentally, economically, and from a human perspective. As much as it is questionable if coal and oil, centralized money, and wars (attacks on ourselves) hold a prosperous future, change is typically avoided. There have been moments in history where rapid change happened. Most often introduced by a charismatic human being with a compelling principle at a defining moment when a change was needed. S&P 500 Index versus BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin an answer to crisis? S&P 500 Index versus Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. The bitcoin idea was born as a response to the crash of 2008. In its principles, diametrical to fiat currencies. Bitcoin is decentralized, limited, deflationary and digital. There is no historical event where increased money printing has resolved economic turmoil. And yet, we have not come up with a better solution, or at least we have not implemented it yet. The chart above shows how shortly after the crash of 2008, the first transaction ever sent on the bitcoin blockchain was completed in January 2009.Coincidence? It took some time until the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto found traction with his idea reflected in bitcoin’s price rise. Still, it has not just caught up but outperformed the market by a stunning margin. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, don’t underestimate powerful ideas: Bitcoin versus gold and silver in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Covid provided like a steroid a means to illustrate many shortcomings in a magnified way. The chart above shows that bitcoin speculation was an answer to where many find a more prosperous future compared to precious metals. In addition to fundamentals and technical, the underlying idea and hope for a transitory future got traction when people were most afraid.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, sitting through turmoil with ease: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Dissecting markets like this in all their shades and facets is necessary for discovering underlying currents, motivation, and sustainability of trends. In bitcoins case, the found strength of application, beliefs, and principles inherent in bitcoin itself and its traders allows for sitting more easily through its volatility swings. Once the mind grasps reason, it tolerates easier, otherwise hardships to trade a volatile vehicle like bitcoin. With a battle ensured on this magnitude and for an expected long duration, one can accept deep retracements in a more tranquil fashion. The monthly chart above shows that bitcoin might face one of those quick dips that hodlers accept, knowing that the battle isn’t over yet. Bitcoin, a battle for freedom: Mills are grinding slowly. Change typically takes time, and those holding the reign over financial power will certainly not surrender such summoned energies lightly. While this world certainly needs a more adaptive behavior of humanity both for its wellbeing and the planet itself, it is unlikely that a shift, if at all, will be swift. This means that bitcoin is a continued struggle to establish itself. And this will result in continued high volatility for the years to come. As such, it will remain an excellent opportunity for the individual investor. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Finally Shining: Gold & Silver Rally Amid USD Strength

Finally Shining: Gold & Silver Rally Amid USD Strength

Topdown Charts Topdown Charts 17.11.2021 08:39
We are upgrading our view on gold given a positive turn in several technical indicators A bearish macro backdrop persists, however, and gold’s long-term valuation is still not very compelling Our Weekly Macro Themes report investigates interesting moves such as a rising US Dollar as precious metals rally Investors were ready to write off precious metals in September and October. After all, what should have been the perfect environment for a rally in gold and silver (immense monetary and fiscal stimulus, rising inflation fears, and negative real interest rates) turned out to be a period of significant losses. Moreover, the opportunity cost of owning precious metals (and related mining stocks) was extreme from Q3 2020 through much of 2021. Prices Turn Higher Things changed at the end of last quarter. The silver ETF and gold miners staged impressive rallies while the S&P 500 surged in October. And now gold is perking up. These bullish moves went under the radar given the massive equity market climb. The Weekly Macro Themes report dives into the many intriguing moves taking place in gold, silver, gold miners, and the US Dollar. We Turn Neutral from Bearish For a variety of reasons, we have turned neutral on gold from a bearish view. There has been significant improvement in gold’s technical picture, and sentiment & positioning trends lean bullish. The major headwind is, of course, a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. Other central banks are charging ahead with rate hikes. Investors Remain Underweight Relative to History It’s possible that the bearish macro/policy backdrop was discounted into the price of gold. Investors were also lightly positioned to the yellow metal. Our featured chart illustrates just how bearish market participants were (and still are) to gold. Implied ETF allocations peaked a decade ago near 8%, but then collapsed to the 1-2.5% range for the better part of the past seven years. Featured Chart: Implied ETF Allocations to Gold Are Skidding on All-Time Lows Better Flows and Momentum Gold’s recent jump is buttressed by a higher low in our ETF flow indicator. Moreover, the FX breadth indicator (which tracks the performance of gold versus a basket of currencies) says there is some momentum behind this past several weeks’ price action. Gold’s chart appears more bullish when priced in currencies other than the Greenback. Still, we await a more decided breakout before turning outright bullish. Long-Term Valuations Still Lean Expensive Another piece of evidence that makes us cautious is our gold valuation indicator which still reads as “expensive” despite a significant reset from 2020’s extreme level; gold’s composite long-term valuation Z-score is about 0.5 to the expensive side. Higher Gold with A Higher Dollar? What’s fascinating about the recent jump in precious metal prices is that it has transpired with a rising US Dollar Index. The DXY made an initial breakout last week. Conventional wisdom says a higher dollar is a negative for precious metals, but we find many examples where both gold and the USD have rallied in the past. The move often catches traders off-guard. Gold Miners and Silver Also in Focus Concerning gold miners, the Weekly Macro Themes report details an updated stance on the seemingly left-for-dead group of stocks. We also dig into what has been developing in the silver market. Bottom line: Our view on gold has shifted from bearish to neutral given a plethora of macro factors, but mixed monetary signals and somewhat elevated gold valuations still suggest caution. At the same time, our bullish stance on gold miners initiated two months ago is reiterated. Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Pushes Higher

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Pushes Higher

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.11.2021 09:08
EURUSD lacks support The US dollar inched higher after October’s retail sales beat expectations. There has been a lack of interest in the single currency following its fall below the daily support at 1.1530. The divergence between the 20 and 30-hour moving averages indicates an acceleration in the sell-off. The bears are targeting the demand zone around 1.1200 from last July. The RSI’s oversold situation may prompt momentum traders to cover. Though a rebound is likely to be capped by 1.1370 and sellers would be eager to sell into strength. GBPJPY attempts to rebound The sterling recouped losses after Britain’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. On the daily chart, the pair saw support near the 61.8% (152.60) Fibonacci retracement of the October rally. A bullish RSI divergence was a sign that the bearish pressure was fading. A break above 153.60 could be an attempt to turn the mood around. The initial surge may need more support after the RSI shot into the overbought area. Should the pound stay above 152.35-152.60, a rebound would lift it towards 155.20. NAS 100 tests peak The Nasdaq 100 bounces back supported by robust tech earnings. The index showed exhaustion after a four-week-long bull run. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence made traders cautious in buying into high valuations. A break below the psychological level of 16000 has triggered a wave of profit-taking. A deeper retreat below 16020 would send the index to the previous peak at 15700 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. On the upside, A rally above 16400 would resume the uptrend.
Gold Spot shorts at strong resistance at 1868/72 worked again as we held below 1877.

Gold Spot shorts at strong resistance at 1868/72 worked again as we held below 1877.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 17.11.2021 10:14
Gold Spot shorts at strong resistance at 1868/72 worked again as we held below 1877. Yesterday's bearish engulfing candle is a sell signal. Silver shorts at resistance at the 200 day moving average at 2535/40 also worked perfectly offering up to 55 pips profit so far. Yesterday's bearish engulfing candle is a sell signal. WTI Crude December longs at first support at 7990/60 work on the bounce to first resistance at 8150/80 for some profit taking. A high for the day exactly here which worked for anyone trying shorts. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. Gold holding strong resistance at 1868/72 re-targets 1857/55 before a retest of first support at 1842/39, which could be seen this morning. Try longs with stops below 1836. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 1832/30 & 1824/22 then a buying opportunity at 1819/16. Try longs with stops below 1812. Strong resistance at 1868/72. Shorts need stops above 1877. A break above here would be a buy signal for this week targeting 1885, 1895, 1900/03 & probably as far as 1914/16. Silver shorts at resistance at the 200 day moving average at 2535 hit minor support again at 2485/80 for profit taking. Be ready to sell a break below 2475 today targeting strong support at 2450/40, which could see a low for the day. Longs need stops below 2430. Sell again at resistance at the 200 day moving average at 2535/40. A break above 2540 however is a buy signal this week targeting 2570/80 then 2600, perhaps as far as 2640/50. WTI Crude December shorts at first resistance at 8150/80 work on the retest of first support at 7990/60. Longs need stops below 7930 for a retest of last week's low at 7835/25. A break lower targets 7760/50, perhaps as far as 7650/30. Shorts at first resistance at 8150/80 need stops above 8210 today. A break higher should target 8280/90, perhaps as far as 8340/50. Above here this week look for strong resistance at 8480/8500. https://youtu.be/wLHeL94ic3Y To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
OVERVIEW OF COVESTING

OVERVIEW OF COVESTING

Prime XBT Prime XBT 17.11.2021 09:37
Nearly everyone familiar with the world of cryptocurrency knows about the successful platform called ChainLink. Also called LINK, ChainLink is the fifth global cryptocurrency platform in terms of market capitalization.  The mission of this decentralized union is to enhance real-world data in connecting smart contacts. This platform has grown its worth by 100% since January 2020. If you are wondering what cryptocurrency platform to invest in gain as much as 100% returns, this article holds the answer. In this article, we will introduce you to Covesting, provide vital information about the platform, and guide you as to whether or not you should get involved in Covesting. What you need to know about Covesting Covesting is a financial technology (fintech company) operating globally and registered in Gibraltar.  The company handles a vast range of software needs and offers solutions to individual customers and institutions globally. Covesting is one of the international firms that received the Distributed Ledger Technology License by the Gibraltar regulatory authorities, which gives it a boost and assurance of great achievements in 2020. Traders and new users can connect on Covesting through the Copy trading or social trading feature. The copy trading or social trading feature allows users to identify expert traders on the platform. After selecting experienced traders, they can automatically copy their trading patterns. Copy-trading or social trading is a smart tactic for both traders and their followers to earn a profit. In practice, when a trade is profitable, the expert trader receives a share of the profit from their followers. Likewise, the followers can trade with fewer fees and greater ease even if they are a novice in trading crypto. Covesting also has a unique token called COV that traders on the platform can use for their activities. Read on to learn more about COV and other features in Covesting. PrimeXBT's partnership with Covesting Covesting is in partnership with a renowned and award-winning trading platform PrimeXBT. The firm won the 2020 ADVFN International Financial Awards as the Best Bitcoin Margin Trading Platform.  PrimeXBT offers Bitcoin trade, forex, indices, stocks, commodities, etc. on a global scale and has over 1 billion USD trading volumes. Other features on PrimeXBT 1: 100 cryptocurrency leverage Accumulated assets from different asset providers. A safe and secure platform for trade. Vast range of trading tools. How to use Covesting through PrimeXBT Users and traders can assess Covesting through PrimeXBT and create strategies for funding and trading in a transparent environment. Tracking records will be made visible to potential traders who can monitor the trade records of expert traders. The followers will see their capital investment and returns, and then decide whether or not to copy the trade. You can search traders through the Covesting area. From the search results, you can decide on a successful trader to follow and copy. Following a trade and copying the trading pattern helps you to earn passive income with little or no knowledge. The traders-followers pattern is also an avenue for the traders to build their reputation. It will earn them more profit if they know what to do. Is COV Likely to Skyrocket? Investors can use the Covesting token (COV) to invest in the platform. Investing with the token is very profitable when the value appreciates.  Those interested in serious investment and profits can avail themselves of the supply of token available on the platform. 18,000,000 tokens are in circulation out of a total of 20,000,000 tokens. Top investors referred to as 'strong hands' control 50% of the total token in circulation. Covesting differentiates its utilities into core and secondary token utilities. With an ambitious business goal and direction, Covesting is out to expand its frontiers in business and fintech. The firm aspires to obtain more partnership deals with other third-party trading platforms asides from PrimeXBT through the white-label licensing agreements. With its current partnership with PrimeXBT, the two companies want to integrate the COV token into PrimeXBT. The purpose of this integration is to reduce the trading fee, expand the success fee, and increase followers' limits. Reduced Trading Fee A reduced trading fee is achievable for strategy managers who hold COV. The deduction in trading fees will cover about 10%-100% of the COV token, although, the particular COV discount level has not been ascertained. Higher Success Fee Percentage Followers can earn a higher percentage of profits on their success fee when they stake with COV tokens. Presently, profits from closed trades on Covesting are shared between the platform, traders, and followers. The percentage distribution of profit is calculated depending on the current rates and market conditions, of which traders and followers will receive a greater percentage profit than the platform. Limits on Follower Numbers Covesting plans to enforce a limit on followers to keep their utility high. However, a trader can increase follower numbers when they start staking COV tokens. Token Burns Covesting will calculate and burn a specific amount from its monthly or quarterly generated fees. The token burn will exclude affiliate earnings, fee discounts, and other costs.  Covesting has an admirable customer base, and the COV has a strong medium-term potential. Traders can also trade COV on other platforms, including onKuCoin. Benefits of Covesting and its COV-token In summary, these are what you can benefit from trading on Covesting and using the COV token. Team of trustworthy holders. Higher token value. Reliable partnerships with other renowned platforms. Possibilities of utility and token burns. Recommended by analysts on TradingView. A community of dedicated followers. Legitimate, registered, and regulated platform Token is still under the radar Our Verdict Our review has shown that investing and trading on Covesting has many benefits. However, this should not be your final research before investing your funds in this platform.  Find out more about Covesting and COV before you invest and trade. To learn more about the COV token and trading, you can visit their website. Also, follow traders to learn about their trading strategy.  In all, our verdict is that Covesting is a very promising platform for investment and trading, but make sure you do not invest until you are convinced that it is the best platform for you.
Covesting

Covesting

Prime XBT Prime XBT 15.11.2021 09:47
The decentralised oracle network ChainLink works by connecting contracts with data from around the world. Now one of the most popular cryptocurrencies, it can make you wonder where the next big cryptocurrency will be coming from and, more importantly, how to get on board before it explodes in popularity. It is time to introduce you to Coversting. What Is Covesting? Covesting is an international fintech corporation which offers an array of software solutions for customers across the world. Recognising the importance of being based in a country where the government fully supports what the company is about, Covesting is based in Gibraltar. Quickly becoming one of the first companies in the world to receive a Distributed Ledger Technology License, also referred to as DLT, from the authorities in the British Overseas Territory, Covesting has its own token; COV. Developing their own platform, Covesting connects traders with a variety of followers, a little similar to social media, allowing for both the follower and the trader to make profitable gains. Traders earn a small fee from the equity of their followers, while the followers benefit from hassle free trading by following the trader’s most successful strategies. This process is known as ‘copy trading’. Partnership with PrimeXBT Now available to everyone via PrimeXBT, the Covesting platform allows traders to make profit from each other as well as their own followers. To make capital, transparency is key. Traders create funds with their best strategies which users can then easily verify, along with the track record of the trader and how much money has been invested into each fund. If traders are able to build and maintain a good reputation, they will be able to generate a second income by attracting new followers. Users can view traders objectively, looking at their results and only invest when they are comfortable they have selected the right trader for them. This way, capital can be generated passively without knowledge of the market or any trading skills. PrimeXBT Offering services such as foreign exchange and stock indices, PrimeXBT is a Bitcoin based trading platform. With trading volumes over $1 billion (USD), in 2020 the company won ‘Best Bitcoin Margin Trading Platform’ at the International Financial Awards. As a platform, PrimeXBT can provide up to one hundred times leverage for cryptocurrencies, a wide range of technical analysis tools and extra security for efficient and safe trading. Why Will COV Be Popular? With a limited supply of tokens, only 18 million COV tokens are in circulation and half of these are held in ‘strong hands’. Holders of the tokens gain access to benefits and COV utilities will be divided up between Secondary and Core token utilities. Moving forward, Covesting plans to partner with other third parties to increase the utilities offered to token holders. So what will a COV token be used for? Well, it will be integrated into PrimeXBT and will be used for a number of functions. These include: Trading Fee Reduction Fee reduction tiers will range from between 10% and 100%, and the level of reduction permitted will depend on the amount of COV tokens held. The number of tokens required for each level reduction will be announced at a later date though there are a variety of options and benefits available. Improving Success Fee Percentage Followers can favourably increase the percentage of success fees by staking tokens and taking advantage of its utility. At the moment, Covesting takes a percentage of success fees on closed profitable trades. Determined by the corresponding offer, Covesting then distributes the remaining percentage between the follower, the strategy manager and the platform. Offers are subject to change depending on the current market conditions. By staking a certain amount of COV tokens, Covesting has a smaller percentage, with a larger share going to the follower on profits made by the strategy manager. Increasing Following Limits In order to keep token utility levels high, Covesting implements limitations on the maximum number of unique followers permitted, in addition to imposing limitations on capital. Staking COV tokens unlocks followers and raises capital limits. Token Burns Covesting will burn a portion of fees generated at regular intervals throughout the year. Calculated fees will exclude affiliate earnings, fee discounts and various other revenue impacts. COV tokens have a lot of potential in a relatively short time frame, being traded on KuCoin and Inter Alia. Covesting is surrounded by a very supportive community with the price reaction to Covesting’s module launch on PrimeXBT being extremely positive. In Summary The best piece of advice you can get is to visit the Covesting website and carry out your own research about the token before deciding whether or not to invest. You may also wish to try your hand at trading cryptocurrency on PrimeXBT. If you follow this link, you will receive a welcome bonus of $50 when you sign up. When you start to follow traders, it is important to remember that their past results are not a guarantee of any future results. You should also look at how long a certain strategy has been live on the platform. For example, the newer the strategy the more risk it involves and following some strategies can result in financial losses. This said, if you cannot afford to lose capital, do not invest until you are prepared to accept the risk of loss. Reasons for Holding COV Main reasons for holding COV tokens include: Trusted, licensed company Limited token supply Under the radar at the moment Future utility plans Top TradingView analyst recommendations Token burns Strong sense of community
A Guide To PrimeXBT V2.0

A Guide To PrimeXBT V2.0

Prime XBT Prime XBT 15.11.2021 09:43
PrimeXBT, your award-winning trading platform, has been upgraded to deliver even more value to the trading community. This upgrade includes several improvements to the platform's appearance and interface. But the biggest reason for the upgrade is the addition of Ethereum and stablecoin based margin accounts. In this guide, you will find all you need to know about the introduction of ETH, USDT, and USDC margin accounts, as well as other features of PrimeXBT's upgrade to version 2.0. Welcome To Version 2.0 When you first log into your account (since the upgrade), you’ll be greeted with a message introducing the updates. There are a few slides that also inform you of all the new features that have been added. You’ll notice that the dashboard has been reorganized and now includes a Main account section. This section provides you with the information you need regarding your margin accounts, wallet, followings or Covesting accounts, and more. The New Main Page Shows You All You Need In One Glance You can execute several operations from the Main page because it provides you everything you need at a glance. Some of these tasks include initiating withdrawals, making deposits, viewing your balances, creating margin accounts, and more. No matter the cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH, USDC, and USDT), you can create a separate margin account for each. You can also deposit COV tokens, but these are not for your margin accounts. Their use will be explained further in this guide. To fund any account from your PrimeXBT’s Main page, you have to deposit funds into the secure cryptocurrency address for that account. You can find the address within your PrimeXBT account dashboard. Once funded, you will need to move the crypto into the margin account from your wallet. New Accounts In ETH, USDC, and USDT With the Bitcoin-based margin trading, PrimeXBT earned many awards. Now there’s more! PrimeXBT has added Ethereum, Tether, and USD Coin. This is one of the Version 2.0 upgrade's most significant features and has been merged into the same account system and internal trading engine. You can use these currencies beyond Bitcoin-based margin trading. Get a free account with PrimeXBT and start trading with a small minimum deposit. You can sign up in less than 59 seconds, so do so now if you haven't registered with PrimeXBT. There are more than 50 CFDs for you to trade on PrimeXBT, and they cut across stock indices, commodities, crypto, Forex, and more. You can trade all of these within each individual currency type. You will find isolated account details within each dedicated margin account. Your All-New Reports Section PrimeXBT has also added a Reports section which contains detailed vital account information. You can find information such as a log of all your transactions in this section. This makes tax reporting and bookkeeping very easy. The Updated Referral Section As a result of the inclusion of these new currencies, the referral section has also been upgraded. This section of the website now lists commissions in whichever currencies new users trade in. In order words, if a user trades in Ethereum, commissions are generated and paid out in Ethereum. So, when you refer anyone to PrimeXBT, you will get your commissions in the currencies the user trades in. The referral system includes simple referral links you can use on different media, including forums and social media. You can share it with friends and loved ones too. Depending on where you are on PrimeXBT’s four-level referral system, you can get as much as 20% commissions per referral. Enhancements To The Covesting Copy Trading The Covesting Trading Module has been an innovative copy trading system connecting followers to strategy managers. The system makes it possible for both parties to earn and profit. With the addition of ETH, USDC, and USDT, this module has also been upgraded to support these cryptos and given a facelift. How Covesting Copy Trading Works Strategy managers post their trades for followers to copy. When they close their positions, both parties earn. These more skilled traders earn a commission (success fees) off of followers’ capital commissions. These commissions can add up quickly, and the top Covesting traders have already earned millions in commissions, as well as generated millions for their followers. Traders are reviewed by a five-star system that spurs everyone to be at their best. They are then ranked accordingly and displayed on global leaderboards, with different success factors, including their wins, total profits, and even losses, highlighted. With the inclusion of other currencies in version 2.0 of PrimeXBT, followers can only follow strategy managers in like-currencies, thus encouraging a diversified Covesting community. Followers with ETH-based margin accounts can now only follow strategy managers with the same currency accounts. We mentioned the COV utility token earlier. It is at the heart of the Covesting copy trading module and can be used to unlock many other benefits within the module. More PrimeXBT Features PrimeXBT has so many incredible features for traders. Some of these include responsive customer service, Turbo, an official blog containing lots of trading tips, educational guides, and more. Turbo With Turbo, you (all traders) have access to unique ways to position yourself in the market. It also includes an analysis section that that seamlessly integrates with TradingView for an incredible technical analysis and risk management experience, and more. Blog & News The company's blog and news tabs keep you updated with news and market information and content to help you become your better version of the trader you are and make the most of your trades. Security PrimeXBT prioritizes security. The platform is highly secure and built on bank-grade security infrastructure. With the help of a distinctive wallet structure that involves cold storage, the platform has never been hack. Each account is secured with address white-listing and two-factor authentication. PrimeXBT also boasts a 99.9% uptime. 24/7 Responsive Customer Support Besides all the fantastic features of PrimeXBT, one of its best is its 24/7 live customer support staff. They are trained and ever-ready to assist you with whatever issues you might have. There’s also a help center containing tutorials to help you with anything. Advanced Trading Tools PrimeXBT’s upgrade to version 2.0 offers traders an all-in-one platform for the complete trading experience. It contains all the advanced trading tools necessary to become the successful trader you always dreamed of while also minimizing risks. It has the best slippage in the industry with stop-loss orders to ensure capital preservation. It also offers you excellent opportunities with its leverages and diverse ways to access the markets. Stable Coins For Added Risk Protection Bitcoin and Ethereum are known to be subject to base currency account volatility. This type of volatility spurred many users to request the addition of stablecoins. With the inclusion of USDT and USDC, traders can now eliminate all risks associated with such volatility. This is one of the fundamental reasons for the upgrade to version 2.0. Today Is Your Best Time To Trade CFDs On An Award-Winning Platform With PrimeXBT's upgrade to version 2.0, you can now use BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC for margin accounts. You can trade any combination of the most popular markets, including the S&P 500, Bitcoin, Forex, oil, and gold. And you can do this anywhere you are, digitally. All you need is our award-winning platform that has all the basic and advanced tools to help you reach your trading and financial dreams. Use PrimeXBT’s V2.0 Today!
Europe gas prices rise as Nord Stream 2 certification suspended

Europe gas prices rise as Nord Stream 2 certification suspended

Capital Capital 17.11.2021 20:50
Gas prices in Europe increased on Tuesday morning by 3.35% after the German energy regulator suspended the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The prices rallied past €83 a megawatt-hour in mid-November, the highest in three weeks, as investors reacted to the news. Moreover, the trading of gas futures on the month-ahead Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the key European benchmark, was up by 9.8% for December at €87 a megawatt-hour. Statement from Germany’s energy regulator Germany’s energy regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, announced the certification suspension of Nord Stream 2, the new export gas pipeline running from Russia to Europe across the Baltic Sea, in a statement. It said the Swiss-based consortium needed to form a company under German law to secure an operating licence. “Nord Stream 2 AG, which is based in Zug (Switzerland), has decided not to transform its existing legal form but instead to found a subsidiary under German law solely to govern the German part of the pipeline. This subsidiary is to become the owner and operator of the German part of the pipeline. The subsidiary must then fulfil the requirements of an independent transmission operator as set out in the German Energy Industry Act,” it said. The Bundesnetzagentur also said that the certification procedure will remain suspended until the main assets and human resources have been transferred to the subsidiary and the Bundesnetzagentur is able to check whether the documentation resubmitted by the subsidiary, as the new applicant, is complete.  Knock-on effect of the suspension In addition to the increased gas prices, according to analysts, traders are expecting Russia to increase supplies to Europe only when the project receives its final approval. “Meanwhile, Gazprom booked zero extra gas flows to Europe via Ukraine for December, an auction result showed. Prices were also supported by forecasts of cooler temperatures starting next week,” Trading Economics said. Opposition to the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 has faced opposition from some European states – and from the US. Those opposed to it in Europe argue that it will make Europe too reliant on Russian gas – despite surging prices due to a jump in demand fuelling some calls for more Russian supplies. Ukraine is also opposed to the gas pipeline as it will lose revenues if gas from Russia bypasses pipelines on Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2 said it had been notified by the regulator but said it is not in a position to comment on the details of the procedure, its possible duration and impacts on the timing of the start of the pipeline operations.
Oil prices ease as markets await fresh guidance

Oil prices ease as markets await fresh guidance

Capital Capital 17.11.2021 20:52
Oil prices retreated on Wednesday as markets are seeking for fresh clues while watching closely for any announcement from the US on its policy to cool gasoline prices. Brent crude oil futures, the international benchmark, dropped 0.59% at $81.94 per barrel (bbl). West Texas Intermediate fell 0.94% to $80/bbl. “The oil market continues to lack direction. Participants continue to wait for signals from the US administration on whether they will release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR),” ING Group said in its note on Wednesday. Short-term relief “The hesitation appears to be because the market outlook is more comfortable in 2022, while an SPR release would also only offer short-term relief to the market,” ING added. In addition, ING noted, there is potential for Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners (OPEC+), to counter US’ release of its SPR by delaying their supply increase. Markets also ignored the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil report released overnight. Brent crude price movement - Credit: Capital.com Oil demand strengthening The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its November oil report keeps its forecast for oil demand growth unchanged from last month’s report at 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2021 and 3.4 million bpd in 2022. The agency said it maintains its forecast because despite global oil demand is strengthening due to robust gasoline consumption and increasing international travel with more countries reopening their borders, new Covid-19 waves in Europe, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices will temper gains. Meanwhile, global oil production is already rising. In October, oil supplies leapt by 1.4 million bpd to 97.7 million bpd with the US post-hurricane recovery accounting for half the increase. US oil supply The agency expects an additional boost of 1.5 million bpd in November and December even as OPEC+ disregarded pleas from major consumers to ramp up beyond a monthly allocated 400,000 bpd to cool prices. “Over this period, the US is now poised to provide the largest increase in supply of any individual country,” IEA said in the report. IEA raised its forecast for US oil production by 300,000 bpd for the fourth quarter of this year and 200,000 bpd on average in 2022. The US is set to account for 60% of 2022 non-OPEC+ supply gains, now forecast at 1.9 million bpd. “Even so, the US will not return to pre-Covid rates until the end of 2022,” the agency said.
2 Tools Every Trader Needs: FBS Trader app & MetaTrader

2 Tools Every Trader Needs: FBS Trader app & MetaTrader

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.11.2021 10:37
MetaTrader & FBS Trader app are two essential tools that every trader should use. Don’t rely only on one, use the power of both as they suit different trader needs. In short, MetaTrader is for trading on a laptop/PC, while the FBS Trader app is perfect for mobile trading. Let’s look at how you can use them! MetaTrader When you want to use a personal computer or laptop for trading, you can choose MetaTrader 4 or 5. They are the two versions of one software program that traders use for opening orders and making an advanced technical analysis. MetaTrader offers different technical tools and allows using trading robots (expert advisors). Besides, you can use the FBS Forex broker app to manage your MetaTrader accounts and control finances. FBS Trader app If you want to trade with your mobile phone or just don’t have an opportunity to trade with a PC at the moment, the FBS Trader app is the best choice. Indeed, we can’t sit in front of our personal computers and monitor trades all day long. What to do? The solution is to have the FBS Trader app on your mobile phone and be able to open/close a trade in just one click wherever you are. It’s handy that all your active orders are gathered in a separate section. Besides, imagine that some economic news comes out that can impact your opened trades but you are not nearby your PC. It wouldn’t be a problem if you have the FBS Trader app on your phone. In addition, this app has a built-in economic calendar that allows traders to follow impactful news and analyze the charts without leaving the app. For example, the Bank of England left the rates unchanged during its meeting on November 4, while it was expected to raise them. As a result, the British pound weakened, and GBP/USD dropped. As you may notice in the chart below, you can add technical indicators in the FBS Trader app. In that case, Bollinger Bands could help a trader to confirm the bearish momentum as bands were moving in a narrow range and the price broke through the lower band. Finally, the FBS Trader app allows you to manage your funds freely without leaving the app. You can deposit and withdraw them easily in a few clicks. All in all, MetaTrader and the FBS Trader app are the perfect combination for trading. Enjoy using them!
Intraday Market Analysis – GBP To Test Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP To Test Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.11.2021 10:37
GBPUSD bounces higher The pound inched higher after the UK’s inflation soared to 4.2% in October. Sentiment remains pessimistic after a botched rebound from the demand zone at 1.3420. However, an oversold RSI has attracted some buying interest. Its bullish divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off, prompting momentum traders to take profit and look for the next breakout. The sterling may bounce back if the bulls succeed in keeping it above 1.3380. 1.3530 would be the first hurdle. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the pair to 1.3200. USDCAD reaches new high The Canadian dollar fell back after the annual inflation rate matched the consensus. Following the greenback’s rally from the demand zone at 1.2300, a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that the current rebound is picking up steam. As a sign of strong commitment, buyers were eager to keep price action above 1.2480 when the RSI flirted with the oversold area. A break above 1.2600 may trigger an extended rally towards the daily resistance at 1.2760. 1.2540 is fresh support in case of a pullback. USOIL falls through key support WTI crude tumbled after OPEC warned of supply surplus. The rally has stalled after the bulls struggled to lift offers at 85.00. On the daily timeframe, the RSI’s double top in the overbought area indicates an overextension. A break below 79.00 has led to profit-taking and put the long side under pressure. 81.60 is now a fresh resistance from the latest sell-off. The buy-side will need to achieve new highs before they could bring in momentum interest. Failing that, 75.00 is a key floor to keep price action afloat.
The Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Market Watchlist this Quarter

The Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Market Watchlist this Quarter

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.11.2021 10:56
By InvestMacro The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately halfway over and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. The QuantStock system is an algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall strength trends to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks halfway through Quarter 4 of 2021: Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care, Large Cap, 4.29% Dividend, Our Grade = A Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is first up and is a company engaged in developing innovative therapies for life-threatening diseases. Its medicine portfolio includes treatment for conditions ranging from HIV and hepatitis to coronavirus and cardiovascular disorders. If we talk about its financial performance, the bio-pharmaceutical company recently crushed expectations for the third quarter. It posted adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion for the quarter ended September 30. The results easily beat the consensus forecast of $1.76 per share for earnings and $6.29 billion for revenue. If we look at its key financial metrics, Gilead stock is currently trading around $67.48 against its 52-week range of $56.56 – $73.34. Moreover, its P/E value is 11.55, while the company’s total market value is just over $84 billion. US Steel Materials, Small Cap, 0.77% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Free Reports: Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis. United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), founded in 1901, is one of the leading steel producers in the U.S. The strong demand for steel helped the company post better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter. United States Steel reported adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share for the three months ended September 30, beating expectations of $4.85 per share. Quarterly revenue of $5.96 billion also surpassed the consensus forecast of $5.79 billion. If we look at the recent price movement, United States Steel stock has gained more than 50 percent value so far in 2021. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.72 – $30.57, while the total market value of the company is approx. $7 billion. Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 3.18% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is one of the world’s biggest hard disk drives (HDDs) makers. It still generates a large portion of its revenue by selling traditional HDDs. The company last month announced better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter, driven by solid demand from cloud data center clients. Seagate reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $3.12 billion for the three months ended October 1, while analysts were looking for earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $3.11 billion. The impressive financial performance drove Seagate stock higher in recent weeks. Seagate stock is now up nearly 80 percent on a year-to-date basis. Synchrony Financial Financials, Medium Cap, 1.68% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) has vast experience in the financial sector. It is one of the biggest credit card issuers in the U.S., working with hundreds of retailers to support their credit card plans. The company last month announced a solid profit for the third quarter. Synchrony reported earnings of $2 per share, significantly higher than 52 cents per share in the comparable period of 2020 and better than the consensus forecast of $1.52 per share. If we see its recent price trend, Synchrony has grown its value at a decent pace so far in 2021. The company’s share price has increased about 47 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $29.32 – $52.49, while its P/E ratio stands at 7.10. Lazard Ltd Financials, Small Cap, 3.98% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) specializes in financial advisory and asset management services. It mainly advises clients on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital structure, and restructuring plans. It has advised on some of the biggest and most complicated M&A deals of the last century. If we look at its financial performance, Lazard posted mixed results for the third quarter. Its earnings of 98 cents per share exceeded the expectations of 95 cents per share. However, the quarterly revenue of $702 million missed analysts’ average estimate of $715 million. Lazard stock traded mostly lower following the results. Nevertheless, the company’s share price is still up nearly 15 percent on a year-to-date basis. By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies. All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Copper & Bonds telegraphed the 2020 COVID collapse

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 10.12.2020 16:18
A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020.  T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020.  Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020. My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand” failure, while the breakout in Bonds suggests risks are elevating. This is something we should continue to watch for in the future as Copper and Bond prices typically move before the US stock market begins to react. THE 2020 COPPER/BONDS DIVERGENCE SETUP The following Daily chart showing the setups and breakdowns/breakouts of the DOW, Copper and Bonds clearly show the early breakout in Bonds and the subsequent breakdown in Copper – nearly 20+ days before the INDU (Dow Jones Industrial Average) began to breakdown and accelerate lower. It makes sense that Bonds and a highly utilized commodity like Copper would reflect a change in demand or elevated fear just before a contagion event takes place.  Consumers, manufacturers, and builders, as well as traders and investors, were all able to see the writing on the wall in this case.  Will any future contagion event be similar?  Will Copper and Bonds react to fears and demand concerns 10 to 20+ days before the next downside price event? THE CURRENT COPPER/BONDS SETUP (STILL BULLISH) Currently, the US markets are in a bullish price phase.  We've written extensively about how the markets are experiencing an unprecedented bullish/rally phase which we believe to be a euphoric/speculative phase of the broader trend.  Still, one can't ignore the strength and momentum behind this current bullish trend and take a pessimistic view of the markets. Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report! The Current INDU, Copper, and Bonds chart, below, highlights the strength and momentum of the current bullish INDU price trend. Even though Bonds appears to be very close to the downward sloping price channel, we have yet to see a real upside price trend in Bonds which would indicate fear has started to reengage in the markets.  Additionally, Copper is trading solidly above the upward sloping price trend which suggests demand for copper is still quite strong. As long as the bullish trend continues, we would expect Bonds to continue to consolidate below the downward sloping price trend and continue to drift lower while Copper continues to stay above the upward sloping trend line suggesting demand is strong and future expectations have not changed. When and IF Bonds move above the downward sloping trend line, then we have to watch Copper very closely for a breakdown event.  If we see this take place quickly (within a 5 to 7 day window), then we need to start to prepare for a broad market decline that may happen within 10 to 15+ days of the Bonds/Copper trigger date. The arrows on the Current Chart above show you what would happen IF a new contagion event were to happen and IF the Copper/Bonds set up replicates itself.  Bonds would begin to rally, Copper would begin to decline, and about 15+ days later, the US stock market would begin to decline. Again, we believe this setup may be a good way to determine a change in expectations related to the demand for an industrial commodity (Copper) and risk levels related to debt/credit (Bonds) that may trigger a warning before the major markets change trends.  If our research is correct, and the Copper/Bonds markets react to changing expectations before the broader US stock market reacts to the change in sentiment, then this may be a very valid setup for skilled technical traders to stay ahead of the major market trends. To be clear, the markets are currently in a strongly bullish price phase.  We are not calling for a top or any type of major downside rotation based on this setup today.  We are showing you what happened prior to the 2020 breakdown and suggesting something similar may happen in the future – which may allow you to have an early warning of a major US stock market reversal in trend. Either way, a skilled technical trader will be able to find success in an uptrend or a downtrend.  Our proprietary BAN (Best Asset Now) strategy allows us to know which assets are potentially the best performers in any type of market trend.  If you want to learn more about how we can help you with our proprietary tools, strategy, and daily analysis then visit our website. Stay healthy!  
PRIMEXBT: A REVIEW

PRIMEXBT: A REVIEW

Prime XBT Prime XBT 18.11.2021 14:45
Cryptocurrency traders are always seeking to top the trading list despite the competition. Most of these crypto traders have features that place them above others. One of such is PrimeXBT. The goal of the cryptocurrency marketers is to maximize sales, assets, and profits. Some exclusive features make PrimeXBT outstanding among other cryptocurrency platforms. These features also set the trading platform as an unequaled competition. The purpose of this article is to clarify, review, and educate readers on some of the significant characteristics of PrimeXBT that are distinct to others. After reading this article, you will be able to decide whether or not to sign up on PrimeXBT. WHY PRIMEXBT PrimeXBT is a bitcoin-based trading platform. It is also an award-winning platform for excellent service and creating the best crypto trading margin. The platform offers exchanges in stock indices, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrencies with up to 1000 times leverage. Below are some of the unique qualities and benefits that PrimeXBT offers. · Registration is easy and speedy on the platform. · Hassle-free withdrawals are based on bank-grade and address whitelisting. · Reliable, technical software · Leverage up to 100 times on commodities, crypto, and stock indices. · Gold, Forex, Silver has about 1000 times leverage. · Secured and fantastic trading engine · PrimeXBT has the option to stop loss and take profit. · A demo account is available for free. · Customer service is open for all live chats 24 hours, 7 days a week. · Learning materials are also available. · The trading platform has updated and new tools for crypto trade. The above-mentioned characteristics and factors make PrimeXBT a highly recommendable trading platform for new crypto traders. All these benefits also make the PrimeXBT attractive, satisfactory, reliable, and remarkable for experienced crypto traders. HOW TO GET STARTED PrimeXBT has the simplest registration process. Registration on PrimeXBT is easy and fast. You will be required only to give a valid email address and your country of residence. From there, you would be asked to proceed to confirm your email address. You will need to have a username and a secret code to enable you to log in another time. Once you have completed the registration process, you can proceed to make your initial deposit. HOW TO MAKE DEPOSITS PrimeXBT only allows payments to a BTC address. Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency for all registered accounts. The minimum deposit fee is 0.01 Bitcoin. Another means of the deposit is through a third-party channel called Changelly. All BTC deposits are immediately confirmed and converted to funds. You must transfer funds to your trading account upon deposit. Funds in the trading account will help you to save some capital separately for trading purposes. This is different from what you have in the trading account for margin. HOW TO MAKE WITHDRAWALS All withdrawals on PrimeXBT are processed once daily. Making withdrawal on PrimeXBT is also a simple process like the deposit. The system converts the Bitcoins to funds before you cash out. After that, the funds go to another BTC address. You may lose funds if you send them to other cryptocurrency exchange different from Bitcoin. The withdrawal window processes all withdrawals at once in a day on PrimeXBT. So, all pending withdrawals will wait until the rollover period. They will join the queue until the next rollover. All the payments from the platform are also officially addressed to the BTC addresses. TRADING ON PRIMEXBT Trading on PrimeXBT is subject to customers' preferences. The trading terminals are developed with excellent built-in software. They have a good number of trading indicators that include SAR, RSI, Ichimoku, and Parabolic, among others. All trading terminals are customized to suit the traders' satisfaction. The trading terminal has a good number of widgets like watch lists and charts. The reliability of the trading engine accounts to about 99.9%, which is known to be fast and error-free. Traders are positioned to enjoy maximum profit irrespective of market turnout. Traders can increase their profits and reduce all risks with the stop loss and take profit orders available on the platform. ASSETS There are about 50 distinctive traditional and digital assets that PrimeXBT offers. These assets create several means of making a profit on PrimeXBT, unlike other rival trading platforms. They include: · Different cryptocurrencies. For example, Bitcoin, Ripple, and Etherum. · Valuable metals. Gold and Silver. · Commodities. WTI Crude Oil, Natural gas, Brent. · Stock Indices and CFDs. Examples are ASX 200, S&P 500, and DAX 30. · Forex currencies. Like AUD, USD, JPY, etc. Considering the cryptocurrency trading market, PrimeXBT has the most attractive and exceptional value assets. REFERRAL Referrals on the platform also generate commissions for traders. Traders who refer customers to the site can generate up to 50 BTC. Traders who are on the leaderboard of the referral chain can even generate over 50 BTC. As the referral increases, the commission increases as well. The referral level and commission grow as each referred trader refer to other traders the platform. The trader who makes the first referral can benefit up to four levels of commission based on the growth of the chain. PrimeXBT also uses CPA offers for its traders. A trader can also enjoy ambassador relationships and personal customer agents as they continue to refer more clients to the platform. CUSTOMER CARE Through an online chat on a daily and weekly basis, customer service agents are available on PrimeXBT. They also give other help center guides, regular updates, and information through their blog. PrimeXBT also has social media platforms that are open to receiving customers' complaints and requests. The customer care representatives are trained and prepared to give any assistance needed to use the platform. SECURITY A secured transaction is one priority of PrimeXBT, which is why they take extensive measures to prevent the security threat of any trading account. PrimeXBT uses Cloudflare technology to ensure the security of all trading on its platforms. All withdrawal accounts are whitelisted and encrypted. The accounts are protected with two-step authentication. One way to test the security level of PrimeXBT is that no personal information is required. The simple step to register is to supply a valid email address, country of residence, create a username, and create a password. TURBO The company recently introduced a new and fantastic trading tool called Turbo. It is also a BTC trading platform with a slight difference from Prime XBT. Turbo works for short-term and synthetic Bitcoin transactions. Traders can select and book for any contract from 30 seconds, a minute or five minutes UP, and DOWN contract. They also order either a profit or loss contract with the new Turbo tool. This new tool is an innovative and exciting trend that makes PrimeXBT unrivaled. CONCLUSION PrimeXBT has won several awards like the ADVFN as the Best Bitcoin Margin Trading Platform. The platform also provides highly competitive features for its traders.  All these are summed in the extremely-fast registration process, rewarding tools, and a wide selection of modern and conventional assets.  If you are keen and concerned about secured and reliable cryptocurrency trade, PrimeXBT is a recommendation for you. PrimeXBT has the best, fast, and profitable assets and cryptocurrency trading. Study all the training tools available and register a free trading account on PrimeXBT to get started.
Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar

Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 18.11.2021 16:35
Summary:  The cost of your breakfast and food in general continues to rise, and following a few months of sideways trading, the Bloomberg Agriculture index, which tracks a basket of major food commodity futures, reached a fresh five-year high this week. Apart from troubled weather reducing available supply there are several other reasons playing a their part and in this update we take a look at some of those, including the reasons why coffee and wheat are two of the hottest food commodities this year. The cost of your breakfast and food in general continues to rise, and following a few months of sideways trading, the Bloomberg Agriculture index, which tracks a basket of major food commodity futures, reached a fresh five-year high this week. The table below shows the commodities with the biggest impact this year has been led by coffee, edible oils, wheat and sugar. There are individual reasons behind the strong gains, but what they all have in common has been a troubled weather year, a post pandemic jump in demand leading to widespread supply chains disruptions and more recently rising production costs via surging fertilizer prices and rising cost of fuels, such as diesel. The La Ninã weather pattern which can lead to floods, drought and cooler temperatures around the world returned to haunt producers this year, and recent forecasts say it will prevail through the coming northern hemisphere winter. In large swathes of South America and parts of North America a La Ninã is normally accompanied by drought, whereas in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia it is often resulting in heavy rainfall. Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed during the past few months as a result of soaring natural gas prices which have forced some European production plants to halt or reduce production. Fertilizer indices tracking prices in North America and Western Europe both trades more than 200% above their five-year averages. The surge has raised concerns farmers may reduce their usage of fertilizers or shift more acres into crops that require less nutrients. A drop in yields could drive prices even higher, thereby worsening already strong food inflation. Supply chain problems/disruptions: We are all familiar with stories about port congestion, lack of containers and surging prices on all the major routes around the world, especially from the production hub in Asia to major ports in Europe and the U.S. These problems began as a result of the pandemic which initially drove a major amount of order cancellations before the world a few months later went on a massive spending spree for consumer goods as the service sector grinded to a halt. These developments together with port disruptions due to continued Covid outbreaks helped trigger disruptions that to this day continue to cause problems for shippers of goods, including many of the food commodities that are transported in special containers. Arabica coffee trades at a nine-year high at $2.38 per pound with the supply outlook looking increasingly tight following an annus horribilis in Brazil where frost and drought dealt a blow to the 2021 crop. In addition to weather, the market also had to deal with lack of shipments and high container rates, surging fertilizer prices and roasters in Europe struggling to source supplies from alternative producers in Columbia and Vietnam. If that wasn’t enough, there is now also a growing risk of civil war in Ethiopia, the world’s third biggest grower of the Arabica bean. What may prove to be even worse over the coming months is that the flowering, or lack of, for the 2022 on-season crop is pointing to another low production year. The break above $2.25, the 2014 high may signal a market running towards $3, a record level that was last seen in 2011. Wheat: From a global food security perspective, the ongoing rally in global wheat prices is an even bigger concern. This week we have seen Chicago wheat futures climb to their highest level in nine years, while here in Europe, the benchmark Paris Milling Wheat contract trades just below €300 per tons, its highest price ever. Just like coffee, weather worries are the main driver, following a poor harvest in North America together with a year-on-year decline in exports from Russia, the world’s largest shipper. These developments have triggered increased demand for European sourced wheat, and with the prospect of another potentially challenging crop year in 2022 caused by weather and high fertilizer costs, some of the major importers have recently been stepping up their pace of purchase in order to cool local food prices, and to secure supplies ahead of winter. With buyers increasingly competing for supplies the market will look for some relief from the upcoming and promise-looking harvests in Argentina and Australia, taking place from now until January. One of the most actively traded ETF tracking the agriculture sector, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, broke higher last week to reach a four-year high. The index tracks the performance of 11 major futures markets spread across grains, softs and livestock. Source: Saxo Group
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead?

Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.11.2021 15:33
  Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears? In a , nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003. Houston, we have a problem, an unidentified object is flying to the moon! The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, which is the difference between the yields on ordinary Treasury bonds and inflation-protected Treasuries with the same maturity, soared to 2.76% on Monday. Meanwhile, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate surged to 3.17%. The numbers show the Treasury market’s measure of average CPI annual inflation rates over five and ten years, respectively. The chart is devastating for the Fed’s reputation if there’s anything left. You probably remember how the US central bank calmed investors, saying that we shouldn’t worry about inflation because inflation expectations are well-anchored. No, they don’t! Of course, the current inflation expectations oscillate around 3%, so they indicate that the bond market is anticipating a pullback in the inflation rate from its current level. Nevertheless, the average of 3% over ten or even just five years would be much above the Fed’s target of 2% and would be detrimental for savers in particular, and the US economy in general. I’ve already shown you market-based inflation expectations, which are relatively relaxed, but please take a look at the chart below, which displays the consumer expectations measured by the New York Fed’s surveys. As one can see, the median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon jumped 0.4 percentage point in October, to 5.7%. So much for the inflation expectations remaining under control!   Implications for Gold Surging inflation expectations are positive for the gold market. They should lower real interest rates and strengthen inflationary worries. This is because the destabilized inflation expectations may erode the confidence in the US dollar and boost inflation in the future. So, gold could gain as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven. And, importantly, the enlightened Fed is likely to remain well behind the curve in setting its monetary policy. This is even more probable if President Biden appoints Lael Brainard as the new Fed Chair. She is considered a dove, even more dovish than Powell, so if Brainard replaces him, investors should expect to see interest rates staying lower for longer. So, inflation expectations and actual inflation could go even higher. Hence, the dovish Fed combined with high inflation (and a slowdown in GDP growth) creates an excellent environment for gold to continue its rally. After all, the yellow metal has broken out after several months of consolidation (as the chart below shows), so the near future seems to be brighter. There are, of course, some threats for gold, as risks are always present. If the US dollar continues to strengthen and the real interests rebound, gold may struggle. But, after the recent change, the sentiment seems to remain positive. Anyway, I would like to return to the market-based inflation expectations and the famous Monty Python sketch. With an inflation rate of 3%, which is the number indicated by the bond market, the capital will halve in value in just 24 years! So, maybe it would be a too-far-reaching analogy, but Monty Python inquisitors wanted to use a rack to torture heretics by slowly increasing the strain on their limbs and causing excruciating physical pain (luckily, they were not the most effective inquisitors!). Meanwhile, inflation hits savers by slowly decreasing the purchasing power of money and causing significant financial pain. With the inflation rate at about 6%, hedging against inflation is a no-brainer. It’s a matter of financial self-defense! You don’t have to use gold for this purpose – but you definitely can. After several disappointing months, and the lack of gold’s reaction to inflation, something changed, and gold has managed to break out above $1,800. We will see how it goes on. I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Like Clockwork

Like Clockwork

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.11.2021 15:44
S&P 500 took a little breather, and sideways trading with a bullish slant goes on unchecked. Credit markets have partially turned, and I‘m looking for some risk appetite returning to HYG and VTV. Any modest improvement in market breadth would thus underpin stocks, and not even my narrow overnight downswing target of yesterday may be triggered. The banking sector is internally strong and resilient, which makes the bulls the more favored party than if judged by looking at the index price action only. Consumer discretionaries outperformance of staples confirms that too. When it comes to gold and silver: (…) Faced with the dog and pony debt ceiling show, precious metals dips are being bought – and relatively swiftly. What I‘m still looking for to kick in to a greater degree than resilience to selling attempts, is the commodities upswing that would help base metals and energy higher. These bull runs are far from over – it ain‘t frothy at the moment as the comparison of several oil stocks reveals. Precious metals dip has been swiftly reversed, and it‘s just oil and copper that can cause short-term wrinkles. Both downswings look as seriously overdone, and more of a reaction to resilient dollar than anything else. In this light, gold and silver surge is presaging renewed commodities run, which is waiting for the greenback to roll over (first). And that looks tied to fresh debt issuance and debt ceiling resolution – Dec is almost knocking on the door while inflation expectations are about to remain very elevated. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls continue holding the upper hand, and yesterday‘s rising volume isn‘t a problem in the least. Dips remain to be bought, and it‘s all a question of entry point and holding period. Credit Markets Credit markets stabilization is approaching, and yields don‘t look to be holding S&P 500, Russell 2000 or emerging markets down for too long. Especially the EEM performance highlights upcoming dollar woes. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver decline was promptly reversed, and the lower volume isn‘t an immediate problem – it merely warns of a little more, mostly sideways consolidation before another push higher. PMs bull run is on! Crude Oil Crude oil bulls could very well be capitulating here – yesterday‘s downswing was exaggerated any way examined. Better days in oil are closer than generally appreciated. Copper The copper setback got likewise extended, and the underperformance of both CRB Index and other base metals is a warning sign. One that I‘m not taking as seriously – the red metal is likely to reverse higher, and start performing along the lines of other commodities. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bears may be slowing down here, but I wouldn‘t be surprised if the selling wasn‘t yet over. We‘re pausing at the moment, and in no way topping out. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep banishing the shallow correction risks, leveling the very short-term playing field. The credit markets non-confirmation is probably in its latter stages, and stock market internals favor the slow grind higher to continue. Precious metals remain my top pick over the coming weeks, and these would be followed by commodities once the dollar truly stalls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Euro Bounces Back, but The Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Euro Bounces Back, but The Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 18.11.2021 15:17
Overview:  The US dollar's sharp upside momentum stalled yesterday near JPY115 and after the euro met (and surpassed) a key retracement level slightly below $1.1300.  Led by the Antipodean currencies today, the greenback is mostly trading with a heavier bias.  Among the majors, helped by a steadying of US yields, the yen is soft.  In the emerging market space, the Turkish lira continues its headlong plunge while the yuan softened and the Mexican peso is off.  Hungary's central bank surprised with a 70 bp hike in the one-week deposit rate.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is posting a small gain through the European morning.  Disappointing tech results in China (Baidu and Bilibili) weighed on Chinese shares, but most markets in the region fell but Australia and Taiwan.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling to extend the six-day advance.  US futures are also a little firmer.  After yesterday's four basis point pullback, the US 10-year yield is little changed near 1.58%.  European yields are 1-2 bp lower.  Gold remains within Tuesday's range (~$1850-$1877), but the moment seen earlier last week has faded, and the yellow metal is trading choppily in a consolidative phase.  The prospect of a coordinated sale of oil after China's announced it would tap its reserves for the second time saw the January WTI contract fall to $76.45, its lowest level since early October. Still, the price has stabilized in the European morning around $77 a barrel.  The benchmark European natural gas contract (Netherlands) has extended yesterday's pullback.  It settled a little below 75 euros last week, and after two days of declines, it is above 92 euros.  Iron ore is also falling for a second session and is now lower on the week.  Note that it settled October a little above $104 and is now around $86.40. Copper is lower for the fourth consecutive session.  It is trading around $424, off $20.5 this week.   Asia Pacific  Japan is expected to unveil the much-awaited supplemental budget tomorrow.  Prime Minister Kishida will get one bite of the proverbial apple, and he is expected to go big.  Talk of the size of the overall package has risen in recent days.  The Nikkei seemed to suggest a JPY79 trillion (~$690 bln) effort, while others report something on the magnitude of JPY56 trillion.  Still, it is recognized that part of the budget will include funds that were earmarked under previous budgets, which have not been spent.  The clear water is seen around JPY32 trillion.  Japan is one of the few countries that will provide new fiscal support.   New Zealand's central bank meets next week.  It is widely expected to hike rates for the second time in the cycle.   The swaps market has 200 bp of tightening priced in for the next 12 months.  The cash rate stands at 50 bp.  Earlier today, the central bank reported that the two-year inflation expectations (business survey)  rose to 2.96% in Q4 from 2.27% in Q3.  It is the highest in a decade.  The one-year expectation rose to 3.7% from 3.02%.  Still, with other countries slower to raise rates, a 50 bp move may not be necessary.  The Kiwi rose almost 4% last month and has given back nearly half so far in November.  Separately, the Philippines and Indonesia central banks met and left rates steady as expected.   The dollar posted a key reversal against the yen yesterday.  It made a new high for the move, a few pips below JPY115.00, and proceeded to sell-off and close (slightly) below Tuesday's low.  However, follow-through selling has been limited, and the greenback is trading firmly but may be absorbing sales related to the $1.34 bln in options in the JPY114.20-JPY114.25 area that expire today.  The Australian dollar initially extended its losses to almost $0.7250, where a A$575 mln option expires today. However, since early in the Asian session, it has posted corrective upticks and looks set to challenge yesterday's high and five-day moving average a little above $0.7300.   The Chinese yuan appears to have begun consolidating.  It remains in the range set on Tuesday that saw the dollar trade roughly between CNY6.3670 and CNY6.3965.  The small gain is the third this week.  The PBOC fix was at CNY6.3803, a bit firmer compared with expectations (CNY6.3786 in the Bloomberg survey) than seen recently.  Note that there is a $1 bln option at CNY6.3830 that expires today.   Europe The auto industry in Europe remained under pressure last month, though the US reported its first increase in sales in six months.  New car registration in Europe, including the UK, is a proxy for sales.  They tumbled by slightly more than 30% year-over-year in October.  This is considerably weaker than expected and is the poorest since May 2020.  The shortage of semiconductors is the likely culprit, and there are some signs of improvement.  The EC will propose modest tweaks in rules about how funds outside of its borders (UK) can be managed while avoiding more dramatic changes.   Draft proposals call for at least two full-time senior managers in the EU and for regulators to be notified when most of their assets are managed outside the EU.  These seem quite minor and unlikely to disrupt the UK fund business.  Earlier this month, the EU Commissioner for Financial Services indicated that temporary waivers would be granted to allow EU banks and money managers to clear trades in the UK. Meanwhile, the dispute over fishing appears to be worsening (Denmark complaining, not just France), and the UK continues to threaten to invoke Article 16.  Former Prime Minister Blair says he will propose a solution to the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol in the coming days.  Hungary delivered a 30 bp hike in the base rate earlier this week, which now stands at 2.10%.  It warned that it could make a separate decision on its one-week deposit rate.  It did so today, hiking it 70 bp to 2.50%.  It is a hawkish move that sent the forint higher.  Separately, as widely expected, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cut the one-week repo rate 100 bps to 15%. As a result, the lira is weaker for the eighth consecutive session.  The lira's weakness not only fuels inflation but also will challenge companies and banks with foreign exchange exposure.  The dollar finished last month near TRY9.60 and after the rate hike, pushed above TRY10.97 before stabilizing.   The euro overshot the (61.8%) retracement target of the rally that took it from near $1.0640 in March 2020 to high on January 6, around $1.2350.  That retracement target was about $1.1290, and the euro fell to around $1.1265 yesterday. It recovered to new session highs early in North America yesterday (~$1.1330), leaving bullish hammer candlestick, and follow-through buying lifted it to $1.1345 today.  The combination of higher inflation and stronger retail sales this week have helped sterling to recover.  It had traded near $1.3350 at the end of last week and has barely traded below $1.34 this week.  Indeed, sterling is rising today for the fifth consecutive session, the longest advance in nearly seven months.  It poked above $1.35, where an option for about GBP345 mln will expire today.  A convincing move above $1.3515 could signal another cent advance.  The euro slipped to below GBP0.8385 today before recovering.  It is testing the GBP0.8400, which holds options for 1.1 bln euros that also expires today.   America Leave aside the gaffes by President Biden over Taiwan.  Bloomberg counts four such verbal blunders that have required official walk back or explanation or clarification.  Reports indicate that Biden probed Xi about oil sales.  China has intervened in the commodities (industrial metals) and crude oil market recently.  Today it indicated it will provide more oil from its strategic reserves.  The September is action 7.1 mln barrels, according to reports, and privately sold more.  It is unclear whether today's sales were planned or grew out of the "virtual summit."  Still, it puts the ball back into the US court.  If the US does not sell or lend oil from its strategic reserves, it will look bad after China's move.  On the other hand, its own agency (EIA) projects that it may not be needed as oil will be in oversupply shortly.  Moreover, the pain for consumers is coming from gasoline prices, not oil per se.  Drawing down strategic reserves may not help the gasoline market.  Apparently, Japan has been approached by the US about coordinating the release of oil, though Europe was not.  The US reports weekly initial jobless claims today.  They have fallen for six consecutive weeks, and at 267k, it is the lowest since the pandemic struck.   That said, at the end of 2019, there were below 220k.  The Philadelphia and Kansas City Feds publish their November survey results.  Both surprised last month, with the former on the downside and the latter on the upside.  This time it may be the other way around, with the Philly survey showing strength and the KC survey softer.  Canada reports its monthly portfolio flow data ahead of tomorrow's retail sales report.  Mexico and Brazil have light economic calendars.   Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau and Mexico's President AMLO visit Washington today for the North America's Leaders Summit.  There is tension among the "three amigos."  The Build Back Better US initiative contains several elements that favor American producers. A key one is that substantial tax break for Americans buying electric vehicles if they are made in the US.  This would seem to put Canada and Mexico at a disadvantage, given the integration of the auto sector on a continental basis. Mexico and Canada are also concerned that the Biden Administration's interpretation of the domestic content requirement in the USMCA treaty is also narrow and puts them at a disadvantage.   Canada is also concerned about the pipelines after Biden nixed the Keystone Pipeline in one of his first acts in office, and the Line 5 pipeline is being challenged by Michigan.  The US, and to a less extent, Canada, is worried about the efforts by AMLO to increase the power of the state sector energy companies (oil and electricity), deterring private sector efforts.  The US may try pressing against this on environmental grounds.  Climate and immigration are reportedly on the top of today's agenda.  The US dollar reversed higher against the Canadian dollar on Tuesday, posting an outside up day.  Follow-through buying yesterday lifted the greenback a little above CAD1.2620.  It ticked ever so slightly higher today but has come back offered.  Support is seen in the CAD1.2555-CAD1.2575 area.  The $1.04 bln option at CAD1.25 that expires today is too far away to be impactful. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains within Tuesday's range against the Mexican peso (~MXN20.56-MXN20.85).  This range looks set to hold today.   Disclaimer
Time to take off some risk

Time to take off some risk

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 18.11.2021 16:05
Summary:  Today we issue another general note of caution on the status of global equity markets, which look stretched even if there are rational (real yields) and especially seasonal narratives in support of recent developments. Elsewhere, we dive into Amazon's broadside against Visa, whether that company and Mastercard could see eventual pressure on margins, other key equity stories and earnings, the dire potential supply situation for European natural gas, the very weak euro and a weak German 30-year bond auction, US treasuries and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Podbean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
A GUIDE TO PRIMEXBT VERSION 2.0

A GUIDE TO PRIMEXBT VERSION 2.0

Prime XBT Prime XBT 18.11.2021 17:27
 Just recently, PrimeXBT released an upgraded version, called the V2.0. This version brought about nothing short of a revolution to the trading platform, including greater access to the platform, improved interface, and enhanced visuals. V2.0 also supports Ethereum (ETH) and digital currency-based margin accounts. This is a guide to everything you should know about PrimeXBT V2.0, and all the upgrades you find on this trading platform, including the USDT, USDC, and ETH margin accounts. INTRODUCTION TO PRIMEXBT V2.0 When you visit PrimeXBT's website, you will get a welcome message if it is your first visit since the upgrade. Do a quick read of the new additions and features noted in the text. The dashboard, which has been upgraded and reorganized, consists of the main account from where you can view your margin accounts, Covesting details, available wallets, account followings, and other relevant details. VERSION 2.O MAIN PAGE AT A GLANCE You have all relevant information immediately you hit the main page, including how to make a withdrawal, deposit, or check your balance.  From the main page, you can deposit funds, make withdrawals, monitor your balance, and do so much more. You can also set up a different account for ETH, USDT, and BTC right from the main page. Funding your account is swift and easy; it starts by depositing funds to all your crypto addresses connected to your dashboard. The next step is to move your crypto deposit from your wallet to all the margin accounts you want to send it. INTRODUCING NEW FEATURES: USDT, USDC, AND ETH ACCOUNTS AND CURRENCIES Do you know what's hot? It is a fact that users now have more options apart from the Bitcoin margin trading that makes PrimeXBT famous. Once you're logged in, you can trade using new currencies like USD Coin, Ethereum, or Tether. PrimeXBT has everything in place for smooth operations as the upgrades and additions are well integrated into the accounts, site infrastructure, and trading engine. New Signings to PrimeXBT can enjoy all these features when they set up a free account and begin trading with little deposit. A GUIDE TO TRADING WITHIN MARGIN ACCOUNTS ON PRIMEXBT V2.0 With V2.0, you can trade with separate account details for each of your margin accounts. You can also trade with any CFD available on PrimeXBT V2.0., including stock indices, forex, commodities, crypto, and about 46 others.   BREEZE THROUGH ACCOUNTING AND TAX REPORTING WITH THE NEWLY-ADDED REPORTS SECTION A visit to the report section newly added to the V2.0 PrimeXBT website holds in-depth account information, including transaction history, basic account details, and movement of funds. All these features will make it easier to keep up with tax and other accounting activities. GET NEW USERS TO PRIMEXBT AND GET REFERRAL BONUSES WITH NEW CURRENCIES  If you have been referring users to PrimeXBT or you have plans of starting, there's a currency tweak you should know. The referral site has undergone some updates, particularly the addition of those new currencies. When you refer a person to PrimeXBT, you will receive your commission in the trading currency that the new user chooses to use in their trade. You can share PrimeXBT referral links on social media groups and amongst friends and family. If you leverage these links, you can get more revenue apart from your trading profit. You can get as much as 20% on commission when you leverage PrimeXBT's referral system. V 2.0 COVESTING COPY TRADING GOT REALLY SMOOTH If any section was left out of the upgrade, it wasn't the covesting module, which got upgraded to support USDT, ETH, and USDC, alongside the exiting Bitcoin trading currencies. PrimeXBT's copy trading system brings strategy managers and followers together for a profitable trading operation and mutual profitability. Followers can copy the trades of strategy managers, helping them to earn more. In return, followers will give a percentage of their earnings to the strategy managers that helped them trade successfully. This interaction has helped both followers and top traders to earn millions trading on PrimeXBT. The platform's ranking system showcases every trader and their rankings on the global leaderboard, alongside their trade profits, losses, wins, and other relevant information. You will also find a 5-star rating system for trades. With the introduction of PrimeXBT V2.0, followers and strategy managers can carry out their interactions with any of the new and existing currencies (USDC, ETH, USDT, and BTC).  Finally, on Covesting copy trading, we find the COV utility token that traders can explore to get more benefits from the copy trading module. BLOG, TURBO, CUSTOMER SUPPORT, AND MORE FROM PRIMEXBT  On PrimeXBT you can leverage Turbo for better positioning in the trade market, and access market information, news, and the company offers on the official blog. Many guides and articles exist on the company blog to guide traders, offer trading tips, and answer relevant questions. TradingView integration offers an analysis of trading strategies, risk assessment, and management, etc. PrimeXBT has 24-hour live customer support with helpful staff available to answer your questions and offer their help. The help center also has a lot of tutorials and helpful materials. PrimeXBT is solid and secure; with bank-level security and infrastructure, accounts have address whitelisting and two-factor verification. Since its creation, the platform has not been a victim of hacking, thanks to the secure wall structure. With a near 100% uptime, there's little wonder why PrimeXBT keeps receiving excellence awards. V2.0: MINIMUM RISK, HIGHER SUCCESS WITH STABLECOINS AND ADVANCED TOOLS PrimeXBT V2.0's advanced trading tools contain everything traders need to minimize risk and trade successfully. Capitals are protected by top industry slippage and stop-loss orders. Opportunities don't get any higher than this with leverage and diverse market access. With the new USDC and USDT, traders are safe from the possibility of base currency account volatility that is common with Ethereum and Bitcoin. Many users requested this upgrade, and PrimeXBT V2.0 provided it, with many more features. Traders are set for a complete trading experience within one platform with all these tools. PRIMEXBT IS THE BEST PLATFORM TO TRADE CFDs  If the awards and user reviews have not won you over yet, the PrimeXBT V2.0 should do it.  What do you say to trade on a renowned platform and leveraging the most advanced tools to trade with USDT, BTC, ETH, and USDC for margin accounts? May we add that you can trade forex, oil, gold, Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and other popular traditional and digital markets? If you say yes, then sign up for PrimeXBT V2.0 today!
It’s the most important job in finance...

It’s the most important job in finance...

Chris Weston Chris Weston 19.11.2021 08:03
It’s the most important job in finance, but the focus falls on whether Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed Chair expires in Feb 2022, is reappointed or whether he is replaced by Lael Brainard, or perhaps even Raphael Bostic. The earlier talk was this decision was slated before Thanksgiving (25 Nov), but the WSJ reported this week that the nomination could be announced over this weekend. The question then of gapping risk for the Monday open is one traders should consider. As the well-used term goes, markets hate uncertainty – and a Brainard appointment, at a time of impending monetary policy change, represents a small rise in uncertainty that many in the market could do without – well, except for those who like volatility which is most short-term traders. A wild December Still, my base case is we are headed into a period of higher volatility regardless, with a wild December ahead of us. Where we see the US Treasury exhausting measures by mid-December and the US debt ceiling potentially becoming problematic, just as the FOMC meeting (16 Dec) sees the central bank likely announce they are accelerating the pace of tapering from $15b to $20-$25b. Expectations of volatility from the Fed meeting should increase after the Nov non-farm payrolls (4 Dec) and then the Nov CPI print (11 Dec) – the latter a genuinely market-moving event. With the Fed due to ramp up the pace of tapering and potentially closing out its QE program far earlier than prior calls for mid-2022, it sets us up for the Fed to start hiking in July or August. The markets currently price just over two hikes over the coming 12 months. Is this the time to change captain? The concern the market naturally holds then is whether this is really the time to be changing the captain of the ship when we’re charging towards choppy waters? And, if the public have such great disdain for inflation - and US inflation is only getting hotter - why replace Powell with someone who most know is slightly more dovish? Brainard, in some market participants minds, could further slow the reaction function of the Fed and rising talk of the Fed being “behind the curve” could see volatility rise. OK, we know Brainard is a Democrat, and we know she is genuine Fed chair material, but when inflation is probably the number one point of contention and the Mid-term elections is in our sights, surely it makes little sense to allow inflation to run even hotter. A Brainard appointment may change the focus to one where the employment mandate is aimed at a greater inclusion – so, despite the headline employment rate headed to 4% in Q1 22, there could be a shift towards more targeted groups and at a simplistic level that could mean keeping rates lower for longer. In some eyes, when inflation is running hot, not just through supply-side issues, but through demand and wages, then rates simply need to go higher, and Powell is more likely to address this sooner. I am not so sure I share the market’s concerns, and I feel Brainard would be no less dovish than Powell, but this is a widely held view in certain circles. Betting sites have Powell as the firm favourite We can see the odds of Brainard getting the gig have beefed up after what was seen as a very positive meeting with the President recently. And we know there have been calls for change at the helm given the recent spate of controversial trading cases at the Fed. While progressives want tougher financial regulation and a Fed that can use policy to address climate change. Despite Brainard’s odds increasing, the market is clearly leaning that Powell gets a second term, and for what it’s worth, I think he should get the gig. The betting markets have Powell as chair at 76% (69% on Predicit) and that is fair, but there is a non-immaterial chance that we do see Biden nominate Brainard, so it certainly needs monitoring. If Lael Brainard does get nominated then the first place to look is short-term US Treasuries, and I’d expect 2-year yields to fall 3-4bp. If yields drop then the USD should follow, especially vs higher beta plays (AUD, NZD, MXN), while we may see some selling in US500 and US2000, with outperformance seen in the NAS100. Gold would probably find buyers and may even take out the recent highs of $1870. Given recent moves in rates and the bull move in USD, I’d argue the market is strongly leaning on a Powell reappointment, so news of him getting the gig may cause limited moves on open – if we do indeed see it announced this weekend. Still, it’s a risk to monitor – but the real issue remains to navigate the event risk in December in what is typically a period of lower participation.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Pullback Mode

Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Pullback Mode

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.11.2021 09:15
USDCHF seeks support The US dollar stalled after weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected. The pair’s attempt above the daily resistance at 0.9310 suggests that the bulls may have gained the upper hand. Intraday buyers’ profit-taking led by the RSI’s overbought situation has caused a limited pullback. Buyers may see dips as an opportunity to get in at a discount. Bids could be around the resistance-turned-support at 0.9235. 0.9330 is a fresh resistance. And its breach may trigger an extended rally towards last April’s peak at 0.9450. NZDUSD bounces off demand area The New Zealand dollar inches higher as traders are positioning for an RBNZ rate hike next week. From the daily chart’s perspective, the pair has bounced off the demand zone near the psychological level of 0.7000. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish momentum, a sign that sentiment could be turning around. An oversold RSI has attracted buying interest. A rally above 0.7060 would prompt sellers to cover, paving the way for a recovery towards 0.7175. A break below 0.6980 may drive the kiwi to 0.6900. US30 struggles to rally back The Dow Jones is under pressure as investors fear that inflation could choke off economic recovery. The index has been struggling to reclaim the landmark 36000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average. The faded rebound suggests exhaustion after a month-long breakneck rally. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has attracted buying interest. Though buyers may stay cautious unless the first resistance at 36180 is lifted. On the downside, the previous peak at 35500 has turned into the next support.
Divergences suggest at least tactical correction risk

Divergences suggest at least tactical correction risk

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.11.2021 11:43
Summary:  Today we run through some stark divergences as the US equity market posts new highs, noting weak breadth and other indicators that in the past have suggested higher risk of an episode of consolidation. We also look at interesting signs in the T-bill auctions that the market remains wary of the debt ceiling situation that hasn't yet gone away. Also, a look at crude oil, gold and rising food prices, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Podbean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Covid Wave Knocks Euro Down and to new 6-year Lows Against the Swiss Franc

Covid Wave Knocks Euro Down and to new 6-year Lows Against the Swiss Franc

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 19.11.2021 13:58
Overview:  Concerns about the virus surge in Europe cut short the euro's bounce and sent it back below $1.1300 and are also weighing on central European currencies, including the Hungarian forint, despite yesterday's aggressive hike of the one-week deposit rate.  Austria has reintroduced a hard 20-day lockdown.  Germany's health minister warned that the situation deteriorated and vaccines were not enough to break the wave.  He was explicit that a lockdown cannot be ruled out.  The US dollar is trading broadly higher.  Only the yen is resilient on the day, but sterling is the only major currency that has edged higher this week.  The Scandis and euro are off more than 1%.  Speculation that Turkey may announce measures over the weekend to stabilize the lira may be helping to deter new sales today after yesterday's rout.  In the nine-day drop through today, it is depreciated by almost 15%.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is off for the fourth consecutive session to bring this week's loss to more than 2%, the most in five months.  Equities do not know of the consternation in the foreign exchange market.  Disappointing Alibaba results weighed on the Hang Seng (~-1%), while most other large regional bourses but Taiwan and India closed the week on an up note.   Europe's Stoxx 600 snapped a six-day advance yesterday. It was only the second loss since October.  It began firmer today but has reversed lower, putting at risk the six-week rally.   US futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ outperforming.  Bond markets are in rally mode as well.   The US 10-year yield is off three basis points to approach the week's low near 1.53%.  European bonds are off mostly 3-5 basis points, even in the UK, where retail sales surprised on the upside.  Gold is steady, finding support near $1850.  Oil initially extended yesterday's recovery but is reversing lower, leaving the January WTI contract set to test yesterday's low near $76.45.  This is the fourth consecutive weekly fall in crude oil.  European natural gas (Netherlands benchmark) is off 4.4% today, the third drop in a row, and pares the week's gain to almost 19%.  In Singapore, iron ore prices jumped 5.7% to break a five-week slide that saw prices tumble by about 28%.   Copper is firmer and paring this week's loss to around 2%.   Asia Pacific There were two developments in Japan to note.  First, October CPI was largely in line with expectations.  Surging gasoline prices (seven-year highs) helped keep the headline rate positive for the second month (0.1% year-over-year).  Excluding fresh food, the core rate was steady at 0.1%.  However, the deflationary forces are evident when fresh food and energy are removed.  The measure deteriorated to -0.7% from -0.5%, the most since June (-0.9%).    Second, Prime Minister Kishida unveiled an overall package of JPY78.9 trillion (~$690 bln). It is larger than the previous two pandemic packages. "Fiscal measures" refer to spending, investment, and loans, and this is seen worth about JPY55.7 trillion.  It is not clear yet, how much represents new spending as opposed to the reallocation of funds from earlier budgets that were not used. However, it appears to be about JPY32 trillion of new spending.   The Chinese yuan, up a modest 2.1% for the year, is the strongest currency.   Against a trade-weighted basket (CFETS), the yuan is pulling back from a six-year high set earlier this week as the euro recovers a cent.  Consider that the yuan has appreciated by more than 9% against the euro and 11.5% against the yen this year.  That means that investment in China has the same tailwind as the dollar and is compensated a bit for the relative lack of transparency and liquidity.  The Financial Times estimates that foreign holdings of Chinese bonds and stocks rose to around $1.1 trillion at the end of September, about a 13% increase this year.  China's stock market has underperformed this year, and the CSI 300 is off around 7% this year.  On the other hand, China's bonds have fared well.  It is the only 10-year bond that has not weakened this year.  China's figures show foreign direct investment has risen by almost 18% this year through October to nearly $142 bln.   The dollar is posting an outside down day against the Japanese yen by first rising above yesterday's high before reversing and taking out yesterday's low. It is approaching the week's low near JPY113.75 in the European morning.  Below there, support is seen around JPY113.60.  A break would warn of a return to JPY113.00.  The Australian dollar has been sold to its lowest level since October 6, when it recorded a low of almost $0.7225.   It has broken the trendline that connected the August and September lows (~$0.7250).  The September low was around $0.7170 and maybe the next important technical target.  The dollar is trading with a firmer bias against the Chinese yuan, but the greenback remains in the range set on Tuesday (~CNY6.3670-CNY6.3965).  The dollar gained on the yuan four sessions this week, the most since July, but the net gain of less than 0.2% still shows an extraordinarily steady exchange rate.   With the yuan near six-year highs against its trade-weighted basket (CFETS), the PBOC warned against one-way moves and encouraged financial institutions to bolster fx risk management.  It set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3825, slightly above expectations (Bloomberg survey) for CNY6.3822.   Europe The stronger than expected October retail sales capped the week's data that points to a rebounding economy and boosts the chances of a rate hike next month.  A strong jobs report was followed by a larger than expected rise in CPI and PPI.  Retail sales jumped 0.8% in October, and the September series was revised to flat from -0.2%. It was the first increase since April.  Pre-Xmas sales were reported.  Separately, the UK government reported that the cost of servicing the national debt has risen more than three-fold over the past year, leaving the budget deficit higher than anticipated.  It appears that the swaps market is pricing in a 15 bp hike at the December 16 BOE meeting, though some are talking about a bigger move.    Several ECB officials, including President Lagarde, have successfully pushed back against expectations of a 20 bp rate hike next year that had appeared discounted by the swaps market earlier this month. The market has pushed it into early 2023.  The implied yield of the December 2022 Euribor futures contract has fallen 20 bp this month.  The December 2022 Eurodollar futures contract is moving in the opposite direction.  The implied yield has risen by about 4.5 bp this month.  The net result is the US premium has increased to over 125 bp, the highest since last March.  In late 2019, the premium was around 180 bp.  This is recognized as a factor helping lift the dollar against the euro, and it appears to have become more salient recently.   The euro's bounce yesterday, its first gain in seven sessions (since the US CPI shocker), stalled near $1.1375, where a 780 mln euro option expires today.   The euro traded quietly in Asia before being sold aggressively as news of the virus hit the wires.  The euro traded through $1.1285 before catching a bid.  Resistance now will likely be encountered around $1.1320.  The euro is posting its first back-to-back weekly of more than 1% since March 2020.  Sterling is also sliding back toward the week's lows, just above $1.3400.  A break could signal a test on the $1.3350 area, but it appears stretched on an intraday basis.  While the euro-sterling cross is practically flat, the euro has punched below CHF1.05 for the first time in six years.  It would not be surprising to learn that the SNB has been intervening.  There appears to be little chart support until closer to CHF1.0250. America The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office offered its evaluation of the Biden administration's Build Back Better initiative.  It sees $1.636 trillion in spending over the next decade and almost $1.27 trillion in revenue.  That leaves a deficit of $367 bln.  A notable difference between it and the administration is how much more revenue will be generated by increasing the number of IRS agents.  Even if it passes the House of Representatives, it will likely be marked up in the Senate.  The jockeying for position and spin around it will likely dominate the session, which sees no US economic reports outside of the rig count later today.  The Fed's Clarida and Waller speaker today.  It seems that most market participants still see the Fed behind the curve and disagree with our idea that to secure the ability to respond to a wide range of possible outcomes, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its tapering starting in January.   It is not clear exactly when the debt ceiling will be reached, but it is being played.  The Democrats do not want to lift it through the reconciliation process, though they have forced the Republicans to do so in the past.  The Republicans appear to have the discipline and will to oppose.  No one seems to think the US will really default, and getting even this close seems undignified.  Yet, the desire to avoid being caught out encouraged investors to demand a high yield on the four-week bill sold.  Yesterday's auction saw the yield more than double to 11 bp (annualized).  It is the highest yield since July 2020.  In contrast, the eight-week bill, which is thought to be beyond the shenanigans, yield slipped to 4.5 bp from six previously and a higher bid-cover ratio.   Canada reports September retail sales figures today.  After a 2.1% rise in August, some weakness is expected.  Ahead of it, the Canadian dollar is trading at new lows for the week, though it is faring better than the other dollar-bloc currencies.  The US dollar is approaching the (61.8%) retracement objective of the decline since the CAD1.29 level was tested on September 20.  The retracement level is near CAD1.2665, and a break would target CAD1.2700-CAD1.2750.  The upper  Bollinger Band is found near CAD1.2655 today.   The Mexican peso is also under pressure.  It, too, has fallen to a new low for the week today.  The greenback looks set to test the eight-month high set earlier this month near MXN20.98.  Note that the central bank's Deputy Governor warned that inflation was accelerating, and it could rise to 7% this month and 7.1%-7.3% next month.  In October, the CPI stood at 6.24% year-over-year.  Banxico meets next on December 16, the day after the FOMC meeting.  Lastly, we note that the Brazilian real is off for four consecutive sessions coming into today.  The dollar closed above its 20-day moving average against it yesterday and looks poised to probe above BRL5.60 today. The high for the month was closer to BRL5.70.   Disclaimer
Poland is doing well in the European warehouse race

Poland is doing well in the European warehouse race

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 19.11.2021 14:06
From quarter to quarter, more and more warehouses are built in our country, resulting in Poland ranking second in Europe in terms of resources under construction. New players are also entering our market Despite the record-high amount of space under construction, new supply on the warehouse market in our country is not keeping up with the ever-growing demand. Lease volume recorded in the first half of this year, was three times larger than the amount of the commissioned space. The largest number of warehouses appeared in Upper Silesia, Warsaw and the Tri-City. The amount of warehouse space under construction is similar to the level of lease recorded in the first 6 months of this year. In the second quarter, the warehouse space under construction increased by a third compared to the previous quarter. According to Walter Herz, most logistics facilities remain in Upper Silesia, in Western Poland and in Poznan. A total of over 1.5 million sq m. of space is under construction in these three regions. The scale of the increase in warehouse resources ranks Poland second in Europe, after Germany. New investors The group of investors active on our market in the warehouse sector is also growing. Recently, Scandinavian fund NREP started its expansion in Poland, finalizing the purchase of logistics portfolio of 130 thousand sq m. of space and planning activities in the segment of warehouses and apartments. LCube company, after starting the investment in Jasionka near Rzeszow, recently launched its second warehouse project near Wroclaw. - Developers are also taking up speculative ventures today, because the demand for warehouses remains at a record high level. Recently, facilities in the area of city logistics have been very popular. Nevertheless, all segments of the warehouse market remain on the path of growth. The largest transactions are concluded by companies from the e-commerce sector, logistics operators are also invariably in high demand - informs BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO of Walter Herz. - Market observers agree that the demand for warehouses in our country, as in Europe, will continue to grow. First of all, thanks to the forecasted, further increase in online sales and the development of e-commerce, as well as the expected expansion of tenants from the manufacturing industry - adds BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik. Emerging warehouse centers Warsaw remains the largest logistics hub in the country, where demand for warehouse space in 2020 reached 1.2 million sq m. and resources exceed 5 million sq m. The second, largest warehouse center in Poland is Upper Silesia, with stock reaching almost 4 million sq m. of space. The next position is occupied by the warehouse hub located in the central part of Poland, where approximately 3.3 million sq m. of space is located. Wroclaw and Poznan also belong to the group of the largest logistics centers. The potential of the largest warehouse markets in our country is constantly growing, but smaller logistics centers are also experiencing intense growth. The Tri-City, Szczecin and the center in Western Poland will join the centers offering over 1 million sq m. of warehouse space after the completion of the current construction projects. New warehouse investments are multiplying all over the country. In Lower Silesia, on the 20 ha plot, Panattoni has started the construction of Panattoni Park GÅ‚ogów investment, which will provide a total of 111 thousand sq m. of space. The first of the two scheduled buildings will provide 78 thousand sq m. of space. The developer is also starting the implementation of another project in this region - Panattoni Park BolesÅ‚awiec, which will bring 50 thousand sq m. of warehouses. In addition, Panattoni has started the next stage of construction of their largest investment in Lower Silesia - WrocÅ‚aw Campus 39 - in Wierzbice near Wroclaw. It will offer a total of 150 thousand sq m. of space. Large facilities near Wroclaw GLP is building WrocÅ‚aw V Logistics Center, the largest warehouse project currently under construction in the Wroclaw agglomeration. 5 buildings of approximately 240 thousand sq m. are to be erected on 50 ha of land. Moreover, the construction of a facility offering 41 thousand sq m. has already started in Magnice near Wroclaw. Hillwood Polska is also building in Lower Silesia. Nearly 90 thousand sq m. of warehouses will be built in Sycow. The first building will bring over 44 thousand sq m. of space. Mountpark Logistics has also started construction. The first phase of the investment will provide 35 thousand sq m. of space, and the entire warehouse and logistics complex Mountpark WrocÅ‚aw will offer 140 thousand sq m. of warehouses. In Gorzow Wielkopolski, MLP Group purchased a 12 ha plot designated for a modern logistics and distribution center MLP Gorzów Wielkopolski with a lease area of 52 thousand sq m. Accolade company has also invested in the expansion of warehouses in this city, acquiring further investment areas. The company is planning on constructing industrial warehouses of almost 100 thousand sq m. At the western border, by the national road No. 24, Hillwood Rokitno logistics center of 112 thousand sq m. is also being built. The company is currently also implementing Hillwood Bydgoszcz investment of a similar size. Also in Swiebodzin, in Lubuskie Province, Amazon has recently opened its tenth logistics center in Poland, providing 193 thousand sq m. Szczecin under development New warehouse facilities are also emerging in Szczecin. Accolade company has acquired two industrial properties there. Modern warehouse spaces with a total of 73 thousand sq m. will be built on the land. The currently implemented stage of the project at Kniewska Street in Szczecin will include 31 thousand sq m. of space. In Goleniow, Panattoni Park Goleniów with a target area of 54 thousand sq m. is under construction. Nearly 20 thousand sq m. has been built so far. Pruszcz Logistics is preparing an investment in Bedzieszyn, which will bring about 50 thousand sq m. Apart from the warehouse hall, the project will include an office building. GLP, in turn, plans to implement the next stage of the Pomeranian Logistics Center in Gdansk. Another 39 thousand sq m. of warehouse and production space is to be built in the vicinity of the DCT Gdansk container terminal. Further investments in Poznan MLP Group is expanding the MLP PoznaÅ„ West project near Poznan. Another 43,000 sq m. of warehouses will be built in the complex in DÄ…brówka. P3 is going to build a building providing 82.5 thousand square meters in P3 PoznaÅ„ park for Westwing, The company offers the possibility of extension with additional 27 thousand sq m. In addition, Panattoni Park PoznaÅ„ East Gate with 45 thousand sq m. will be built on a plot of 10 hectares in SwarzÄ™dz minicipality near Poznan. Good Point, a Real Management brand, is also planning the construction of warehouses and technology parks near Warsaw, on land in the municipalities of Gora Kalwaria and Karczew. In Strykow in the Lodz province, in the vicinity of the junction connecting the A1 and A2 motorways, Mountpark Logistics is preparing a warehouse and logistics center which will provide 245 thousand sq m. New warehouses in Upper Silesia The largest warehouse investment in Upper Silesia is GLP LÄ™dziny Logistics Center, where 111 thousand sq m. is to be delivered. In Gliwice, MDC2 company has purchased a plot of 13.4 ha designated for a warehouse and logistics facility. MDC2 Park Gliwice complex is to consist of three buildings with 52 thousand sq m. of warehouse space. In addition, European Logistics Investment has started the construction of a second warehouse building in Silesia. The implementation of Park Tychy II investment is to bring 43 thousand sq m. of space. In Miedzyrzecze, 7R company will also build a specialized warehouse with about 20 thousand sq m. for the production company Aluprof. Retailers are building facilities Chain brands are also investing in logistics. Jeronimo Martins is already building the seventeenth distribution center for Biedronka in our country. A complex of warehouse and logistics halls with 54 thousand sq m., will be built in Stawiguda near Olsztyn on a 9 hectare plot. ALDI chain, which plans to open 40 stores in Poland, is to have a new distribution center located near Bydgoszcz, with over 43 thousand sq m. Recently, Lublin province also issued a building permit for the largest logistics park in Europe. In Malaszewicze, a modern cargo transshipment hub between Asia and Europe is to be built in the current dry port, which after the expansion will quadruple its capacity. The construction of the logistics park, which will occupy a key place on the New Silk Road route, is planned to start in 2022, and its implementation will take 5 to 6 years. The investment will cost over PLN 3 billion. Half of the funds are to come from the state budget. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 21 November 2021

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 21 November 2021

Callum Thomas Callum Thomas 22.11.2021 09:40
The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts. The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Hope you enjoy! p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!) Subscribe Now 1. S&P 500 Seasonality Chart: It’s everyone’s favorite chart updated again (maybe for the last time this year?). The S&P500 has been sticking to the seasonality script through most of this year… makes me think about Murphy’s Law tho - maybe the market will start to improvise and go off-script? Either way, the next few weeks seasonally look like sideways action. Source: @topdowncharts 2. Volatility Seasonality: A twist on the previous chart — same concept, but this time with implied volatility. I find it interesting to note that the VIX has actually been a bit lower than usual for this time of the year (and trending up short-term…). One last VIX spike before year-end? Source: @topdowncharts 3. Stockmarket Statistics: What happens after the market goes up a “crazy overheated” 20%+ over the course of a year? More Gains. Historically most of the time if the market closed up 20%+ for the year, the next year was also positive (84% of the time). As of writing, the market is up some 27% YTD (albeit, this year ain't over yet!). Source: @RyanDetrick 4. Bad Breadth? Fully 1/3rd of stocks are in a downtrend. (defined as trading below their respective 200dma) Will this bearish divergence be a problem? Source: Index Indicators 5. GAARP vs GAAAP: On this metric, growth stocks are the most expensive ever vs value stocks. So it begs the question… Growth at a reasonable price? or Growth at *any* price? (but then again, who defines what "reasonable" is in a market like this!) Source: @TheOneDave 6. Low Energy: Energy stocks are attempting to turn the corner vs the rest of the market, but face high hurdles from the raging tech bull market, rise of ESG investing and regulatory/political hurdles, not to mention commodity market volatility. What comes down must go up? (or something else?) Source: @dissectmarkets 7. Buybacks Back: New all-time high for buybacks in Q3 (with 95% reported). Always makes me wonder these trends — you see the majority of buybacks occurring near market peaks… i.e. when valuations are extreme expensive. The opposite of value investing: buy more when its expensive, buy less when it’s cheap — seems like upside-down logic to me, but then again I am a simple man. Source: @hsilverb 8. Payout Ratio: As an interesting follow-on to the ATH in buybacks/dividends, it’s interesting to note that the dividend payout ratio is actually below average... Scope to return more cash to investors? Source: @ChrisDagnes 9. Buffett Indicator: Looks like this indicator has reached a permanently higher plateau! (kidding of course - echoing the famous last words of Irving Fisher back in 1929) Interesting stat to note: to make this indicator as cheap as where it got to during the financial crisis lows the market would need to fall over 70%. Definitely not a prediction, but interesting nonetheless. I would say I have multiple quibbles with this indicator, I think CAPE and ERP are better valuation metrics, but that’s a topic for another day. Source: @KailashConcepts 10. Buffett the Compounder: Speaking of Buffett, a lesson in compounding. Source: @DividendGrowth Thanks for following, I appreciate your interest! !! BONUS CHART: total stockmarket leverage >> Click through to the ChartStorm Substack to see the bonus chart section https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-21-november                   Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
Global Markets In Times Of Affection Of Situation In Eastern Europe

On the radar this week...

Chris Weston Chris Weston 22.11.2021 08:18
Powell vs Brainard Fed chair nomination  Covid trends and restrictions in Europe US core PCE inflation (Thursday at 2 am AEDT) RBNZ and Riksbank central bank meeting US cash markets shut Thursday for Thanksgiving (Pepperstone US equity indices still open)  Eurozone PMI (Tuesday 20:00aedt) – ECB speakers in play BoE speakers to drive the GBP – will they cast doubt on a December hike? With Covid risks on the rise in Europe and ultimately restrictions being implemented we’ve seen renewed selling interest in the EUR, and the oil-exporting currencies (NOK, CAD, MXN). Certainly, the NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, and GBPNOK has been a great long position – a pair to trade this week, but consider it is up for 9 straight days and has appreciated 5.2% since late October.  I questioned last week if the divergence in EURCHF plays out, and the break of 1.05 negates that, suggesting staying short this cross for now as the CHF is still a preferred safe-haven.  EURUSD has been in free-fall EURUSD has been in free-fall and will likely get the lion’s share of attention from clients looking for a play on growing restrictions and tensions across Europe. The pair has lost 3.5% since rejecting the 50-day MA on 28 Oct and has consistently been printing lower lows since May – predominantly driven by central bank divergence and a growing premium of 2-year US Treasuries over German 2yr - with the spread blowing out from 78bp to 128bp, in favour of USD. For momentum, trend followers and tactical traders, short EUR remains attractive here.  It will be interesting to see if we see any pickup in shorting activity in EU equities – notably the GER40, with the German govt warning of lockdowns ahead. A market at all-time highs (like the GER40) is a tough one to short, but if this starts to roll over then I’d go along for a day trade. There is a raft of ECB speakers also to focus on, notably with President Lagarde due to speak on Friday.  Playing restrictions through crude While we can play crude moves in the FX, equity and ETF space, outright shorts in crude have been looking compelling. Although we see SpotCrude now sitting on huge horizontal support and a break here brings in the 50-day MA. Of course, as oil and gasoline fall, the prospect of a release of the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) diminishes, however, the Biden administration could use this move lower move to their advantage and capitalize to keep the pressure on.  (SpotCrude daily) A rise in restrictions also means market neutral strategies (long/short) should continue to work, and long tech/short energy has been popular. We can express this in our ETF complex, with the XOP ETF (oil and gas explorers) -8.1% last week and that works as a high beta short leg. Long IUSG (growth) or the QQQ ETF against this would be a good proxy on the opposing leg. In fact, looking at the moves in Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon, and we can see these ‘safe haven’ stocks are working well again, as is Tesla although for different reasons.  Stocks for the trend-followers For the ‘buy strong’ crowd, I have scanned our equity universe for names above both their 5- and 20-day MA AND at 52-week highs. Pull up a daily chart of any of these names - they should nearly always start at the bottom left, and end top right. Playing the RBNZ meeting tactically By way of event risks, the RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEDT) is one of the more interesting events to focus on. Will the RBNZ raise by 25bp or 50bp? That is the question, and of 19 calls from economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) we see 17 calling for a 25bp hike – yet the markets are fully pricing not just a 25bp hike but a 43% chance of 50bp – from a very simplistic perceptive if the RBNZ hike by ‘just’ 25bp, choosing a path of least regret, then we could see a quick 25- to 30-pip move lower in the NZD. The focus then turns to the outlook and whether the 8 further hikes priced over the coming 12 months seems to be one shared by the RBNZ.  Traders have been keen to play NZD strength via AUD, as it is more a relative play and doesn’t carry the risk on/off vibe, which you get with the USD and JPY. I’d be using strength in AUDNZD as an opportunity to initiate shorts, especially with views that RBNZ Gov Orr could talk up the possibility of inter-meeting rate hikes.  GBP to be guided by the BoE Chief The GBP is always a play clients gravitate to, with GBPUSD and EURGBP always two of the most actively traded instruments in our universe. A 15bp hike is priced for the 16 Dec BoE meeting after last week’s UK employment and inflation data, but consider we also get UK PMI data (Tuesday 20:30 AEDT), and arguably, more importantly, speeches from BoE Governor Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill – perhaps this time around expectations of hikes can be better guided – although, a bit of uncertainty into central bank meetings is very pre-2008 and makes things a little spicy/interesting.  (BoE speakers this week) GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility is hardly screaming movement, and at 6.5% sits at the 10th percentile of its 12-month range. The implied move is close to 130pips, so the range at this juncture (with a 68.2% level of confidence), although I multiple this by 0.8 to get closer to the options breakeven rate. So at this stage, 100 pips (higher or lower) is the sort of move the street is looking for over the coming five days, putting a range of 1.3557 to 1.3349 in play – one for the mean reversion players. Personally, I would let it run a bit as that volatility seems a little low, and a break of 1.3400 could see volatility pick up. I’d certainly be looking for downside if that gave way.  Happy trading.
We Might Say Next FED Moves Are Not Obvious As Some Factors Differentiate Circumstances

Silver, shrugging off attacks

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.11.2021 13:32
Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2021 10:56
Summary:  Today we look at the lay of the equity market coming into this week, where we continue to note considerable market divergences, recapping the points from Friday, including the narrow market rally. We also look at whether credit spreads for high yield corporates are finally starting to deserve some attention. Focus in commodities on oil and especially gold this week as it is do-or-die time for bullish newcomers after the recent rally spike. The week ahead is a short one for US-based traders, with the Fed Chair nomination issue hanging over the market and the two key event risks for the week up on Wednesday, just before the long holiday weekend there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.11.2021 11:46
November 20, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 705,698 86 -3,826 34 -26,985 68 30,811 25 JPY 252,897 91 -93,126 10 115,758 94 -22,632 1 GBP 207,099 43 -31,599 51 41,182 54 -9,583 36 MXN 170,102 33 -47,655 2 46,127 99 1,528 50 AUD 166,688 57 -61,153 27 69,858 71 -8,705 31 CAD 148,955 30 8,709 62 -26,717 35 18,008 74 USD Index 59,387 88 34,908 86 -40,455 7 5,547 77 RUB 52,624 58 22,625 67 -23,936 31 1,311 70 CHF 49,320 27 -8,889 54 18,767 52 -9,878 34 NZD 42,945 30 13,965 95 -15,521 6 1,556 70 BRL 31,767 32 -15,698 48 15,743 54 -45 66 Bitcoin 13,648 78 -1,478 69 357 0 1,121 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.4 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 71.5 3.5 – Net Position: 34,908 -40,455 5,547 – Gross Longs: 47,959 2,000 7,621 – Gross Shorts: 13,051 42,455 2,074 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.0 7.4 77.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -2.7 -13.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 57.3 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.1 8.4 – Net Position: -3,826 -26,985 30,811 – Gross Longs: 198,181 404,266 90,261 – Gross Shorts: 202,007 431,251 59,450 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 68.1 25.4 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.2 -0.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 61.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 41.5 15.9 – Net Position: -31,599 41,182 -9,583 – Gross Longs: 50,443 127,197 23,322 – Gross Shorts: 82,042 86,015 32,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 54.0 35.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 9.2 -8.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 34.7 17.6 – Net Position: -93,126 115,758 -22,632 – Gross Longs: 24,635 203,468 21,790 – Gross Shorts: 117,761 87,710 44,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.4 93.7 0.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 15.5 -4.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 64.2 24.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 26.1 44.5 – Net Position: -8,889 18,767 -9,878 – Gross Longs: 5,502 31,663 12,048 – Gross Shorts: 14,391 12,896 21,926 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 52.0 34.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -12.2 11.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.1 27.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 60.0 15.0 – Net Position: 8,709 -26,717 18,008 – Gross Longs: 44,147 62,689 40,389 – Gross Shorts: 35,438 89,406 22,381 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.3 34.9 74.0 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -26.4 10.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 67.2 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.1 25.3 17.1 – Net Position: -61,153 69,858 -8,705 – Gross Longs: 30,760 112,044 19,744 – Gross Shorts: 91,913 42,186 28,449 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 71.0 31.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -29.0 24.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 24.1 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 60.2 7.8 – Net Position: 13,965 -15,521 1,556 – Gross Longs: 26,388 10,349 4,923 – Gross Shorts: 12,423 25,870 3,367 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 6.5 69.7 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 19.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 55.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.2 28.2 2.2 – Net Position: -47,655 46,127 1,528 – Gross Longs: 69,984 94,074 5,245 – Gross Shorts: 117,639 47,947 3,717 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.5 98.8 49.5 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 5.6 -1.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 64.6 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.1 15.0 8.2 – Net Position: -15,698 15,743 -45 – Gross Longs: 8,468 20,507 2,545 – Gross Shorts: 24,166 4,764 2,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.6 54.4 66.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 19.3 -12.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 37.7 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 83.2 2.1 – Net Position: 22,625 -23,936 1,311 – Gross Longs: 30,357 19,849 2,418 – Gross Shorts: 7,732 43,785 1,107 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.9 30.7 70.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -3.3 -20.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 5.0 14.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.2 2.4 6.5 – Net Position: -1,478 357 1,121 – Gross Longs: 8,649 678 2,008 – Gross Shorts: 10,127 321 887 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 71.4 22.9 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -20.8 4.5 Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
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ChiNext: The growth market that has defied Chinese equity trouble

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 22.11.2021 14:26
Summary:  ChiNext is up 19% this year while the rest of the Chinese equity market is down highlighting that there is a high quality pocket in China that investors should have on the radar. The ChiNext Index comprises of leading technology companies within battery and medical technology including biotechnology. It is a closed market for most investors but luckily a Hong Kong based asset management is offering a Hong Kong listed ETF providing exposure to this interesting market in China. China has a growth pocket nobody talks about This year has been a rollercoaster ride for Chinese equities. It all started with blistering growth and strong momentum in Chinese equities before rising US interest rates and inflation talks temporarily ended the trade in technology stocks. While technology stocks came back in the developed equity market Chinese equities went from crisis to crisis, first in housing during the summer months and which is still ongoing, to that of an energy crunch like in Europe as energy prices have galloped higher. But there is one pocket in the Chinese equity market that has defied the negative forces of higher energy prices and housing woes, and that is the ChiNext board on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. ChiNext is up 19% this year highlighting a stunning comeback following a 29% drawdown during the technology correction during February and March. CSI 300, the leading benchmark index of Chinese mainland equities, is down 4% this year, and Hang Seng in Hong Kong is down 6% this year. While ChiNext is the crown jewel in terms of innovation and growth companies within key technology, it has struggled to deliver against Nasdaq 100 which is up 29% this year, and since June 2010, Nasdaq 100 is up 23.2% annualized compared to 13.1% annualized for ChiNext. ChiNext is closed market for foreign investors In recent years China has opened up its capital markets making it easier for foreign investors to invest directly in mainland China equities listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, but the ChiNext board is still closed land for most investors due to prohibitive rules. In effect it is only accessible for few foreign institutional investors. Luckily the ETF market is providing an opportunity for retail investors to get access to this market through the CSOP SZSE ChiNext ETF (Saxo ticker is 03147:xhkg) managed by CSOP Asset Management which is a Chinese regulated asset management firm based in Hong Kong with $10bn in asset under management as of December 2020. The ETF consists of 160 securities with $110mn in assets and tracking the ChiNext Index and a total expense ratio of 1.16%. The ETF uses a combination of a physical representative sampling and a synthetic representative sampling strategy (swaps), which means that the fund is not holding the underlying index 1:1, but tries minimize the tracking error through sampling. This enables the fund to minimize tracking error while getting better liquidity conditions for investors. The 10 largest positions in the fund constitute 49.3% of the funds market value with Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) being the largest position with 19.1% weight and also the biggest company in our battery equity basket. CATL is one of the world’s largest manufacturers of lithium-ion batteries and is becoming China’s crown jewel within the fast-growing and emerging battery industry which will be transformational and essential to the green transformation including electric vehicles. The ETF also provides exposure to China’s largest financial and stock information provider East Money Information with $1.8bn in revenue and growing 82% over the past year. The ETF also gives exposure to some of the most interesting medical technology and biotechnology companies in China. The 10 largest holdings in the CSOP SZSE ChiNext ETF The history of ChiNext and why it will play a major role ChiNext was first discussed in August 1999 in the CPC Central Committee and the State Council during the height of the dot-com bubble. China was looking at the technological change in the US and especially what was going on with the Nasdaq exchange. In August 2000, China decided that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange should prepare to create a second board which should include innovative companies with key technologies in order to support growth industries. The ChiNext board was inaugurated on 23 October 2009. In 2020, more than 800 companies were listed on the ChiNext Market with the combined market capitalization approaching $1trn.
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die

Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 22.11.2021 15:11
While the dollar is on a tear, precious metal stocks have gotten away with it lately. But how long will their resistance last? The USD Index (USDX) After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX). Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated. What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level. You’ve probably heard the saying that time is more important than price. It’s the end of the month, so let’s check what happened in the case of previous turns of the month; that’s where we usually see major price turnarounds. I marked the short-term turnarounds close to the turns of the month with horizontal dashed blue lines, and it appears that, in the recent past, there was practically always some sort of a turnaround close to the end of the month. Consequently, seeing a turnaround (and a bottom) in the USD index now would be perfectly normal. And with the USD Index making quick work of 94, 95, and now 96, the greenback’s rally continues to gain steam. What’s more, the USD Index also surged above its late 2020 resistance and 98 should be the next bullish milestone. More importantly, however, gold, silver, and mining stocks are sensing that something is amiss. For example, while they largely ignored the USD Index’s recent ascent, their negative correlations resurfaced last week (on a very short-term basis, so far, but still). Moreover, while the precious metals’ recent rallies were likely euro-weakness-driven and not USD Index-strength-driven, the dollar basket’s uprising should elicit more pain for gold, silver, and mining stocks over the medium term. To explain, I wrote on Nov. 17: The euro recently declined and the prices of silver and gold recently rallied shortly after dovish comments from the eurozone. Namely, while the expansionary nature of fiscal and monetary decisions in the U.S. might be after its peak (with the infrastructure bill signed even despite high inflation numbers), the eurozone is far from limiting its expansionary (i.e., inflationary) policies, and it was just made clear recently. That was bearish for the euro and bullish for the gold price – as more money (euros in this case) would be chasing the same amount of physical gold. The point here is that it might have been the decline in the value of the European currency that caused gold to rally, and it had little to do with what happened in the USD Index. Don’t get me wrong, most of the time, the gold-USD link is stable and negative. In some cases, gold shows strength or weakness by refusing to move in tune (and precisely: again) with U.S. dollar’s movement. But in this case, it seems that it’s not about the U.S. dollar at all (or mostly), but rather about what happened in the Eurozone and euro recently. As a result, with the USD Index likely to take the lead in the coming months, the precious metals should suffer along the way. For context, the USD Index is approaching overbought territory and a short-term decline to ~95 isn’t out of the question. However, it’s more of a possibility than a given. Moreover, the greenback’s medium-term outlook remains robust, and any short-term pullback is likely a corrective downswing within a medium-term uptrend. Circling back to the euro, I’ve been warning for months that the Euro Index was materially overvalued and that a sharp re-rating would likely unfold. I wrote previously: The next temporary stop could be ~1.1500 (the March 2020 highs, then likely lower). For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the euro’s behavior is so important. And after the Euro Index sunk to a new 2021 low last week, the European currency has officially fallen off a cliff. To that point, after breaking below the declining support line of its monthly channel, a drawdown to ~111 is likely next in line (which is signaled by the breakdown below its bearish head & shoulders pattern). The Euro Index is near oversold territory and a short-term bounce may ensue, but the bearish medium-term implications remain intact. Please see below: Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line below would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. However, with the dollar basket’s weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) now above 70, a short-term consolidation may ensue. Conversely, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the dollar’s back. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, while the USD Index’s 2021 surge caught the consensus by surprise, I’ve been sounding the bullish alarm for many months. And with more strength likely to materialize over the medium term, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has been grossly over-exaggerated. Moreover, while gold, silver, and mining stocks recently ignored the greenback’s fervor, history implies that their relative strength won’t last. As a result, more downside will likely confront the precious metals over the next few months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
More And More Universities Are Including Metavers In Their Education Program

Fixed income market: the week ahead

Althea Spinozzi Althea Spinozzi 22.11.2021 14:23
Summary:  This week it's all about a surge of Covid-19 cases and inflation. The debt ceiling issue will keep long-term yields in check in the United States while spurring volatility in money markets. Lack of collateral and new lockdown measures are also compressing spreads in the Euro area. Yet, policymakers' engagement to the idea of less accommodative monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic indicates that yields will not remain rangebound for long. Once the lid is lifted, inflationary pressures will push yields higher. Therefore, it's safe to assume a continuous bear flattening of yield curves. US Treasuries: volatility in money markets will keep long-term yields in check. Yet, inflation concerns continue to grow, pointing to higher rates once the debt ceiling issue is resolved. This week, investors will need to focus on the Fed Minutes released on Wednesday, inflation numbers, and the White House's announcement concerning the Federal Reserve Chair nomination. The Fed’s minutes might unveil details regarding the decision that led to tapering this month and whether FOMC members begin to fret about inflationary pressures. Last week, several Fed’s speakers opened up about accelerating tapering and hiking interest rates in 2022. Among them, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida called for a discussion to expedite tapering to enable the central bank to hike interest rates sooner. At the same time, if Biden nominates Leal Brainard as Fed Chair, it could advance inflation worries. Brainard is known to be more dovish than Powell. In the case of her nomination, the market could anticipate interest rates to remain low for longer, implying stickier inflation, provoking a selloff in bonds. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, one of the inflation data most looked at after the Federal Reserve, will be released on Wednesday. The PCE core deflator index YoY is expected to rise to 4.1%, the highest in more than 31 years. As we mentioned in earlier editions of “Fixed income market: the week ahead”, we expect inflationary pressures to continue to rise and higher rents, housing and wages to make inflation stickier, putting at odds policymakers’ transitory narrative. Therefore, although the US yield curve has already flattened substantially, we cannot expect anything else than more flattening. The only difference is that once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, long term yields will need to rise together with short term yields, putting at risk weaker credits. The debt ceiling will be a crucial topic for December. Janet Yellen has said that the US Treasury will run out of cash soon after the 3rd of December if an agreement over the debt ceiling is not found. However, money markets have started to price a default during the second half of December. Indeed, last week's 4-week T-Bills auction was priced with a yield of 0.11%, more than double the Reverse Repurchase facility rate. We expect volatility in money markets to continue to remain elevated until the debt ceiling is lifted or suspended. Until then, the long part of the yield curve will serve as a safe haven causing yields to remain compressed. Yet, once the debt ceiling hurdle has cleared, long-term rates will resume their rise. European sovereigns: lack of collateral and a surge in Covid-19 cases will keep yields compressed. Yet, something is changing among policymakers. In Europe, governments are imposing new lockdown measures due to increasing Covid-19 cases, causing yields to drop significantly. Yet, inflationary forces have already been set into motion. Another lockdown might exacerbate inflation further as consumption will switch from services to goods, putting more pressure on prices. Meanwhile, policymakers have started to open to the possibility that upside inflation risk might remain throughout winter. Therefore, near-term hikes expectations are unlikely to reverse despite new lockdown measures. Yet, lack of collateral in the euro area contributes to keeping short-term yields compressed across the euro area, including the periphery. At the same time, swaps with the same maturity have widened as the market prices earlier interest rate hikes. Demand for collateral will remain strong until the end of the year. However, 2022 opens up to widening risk, as demand for bonds will start to wane, and the front part of the yield curve will shift higher according to interest rate hikes expectations. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group. However, it looks too early to call for higher yields in the Euro area, as a lot still depends on yields in the US and December's ECB meeting. Suppose more governments across the euro area impose lockdown measures. In that case, the central bank might look to extend the PEPP bond-buying program after March, compressing yields further. The next few weeks preceding Christmas are going to be critical to set direction in European sovereigns. Economic calendar: Monday, the 22nd of November  Spain:  Balance of Trade United States: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales (Oct),  2-year Note Auction, 5-year Note Auction Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov) Tuesday, the 23rd of November Germany: Markit Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Nov) Eurozone: Markit Composite and manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) United Kingdom: market/CIPS Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Nov) United States: Markit Manufacturing PMI flash (Nov), NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 7.5 to 30 years, 2-year FRN Auction, 7-year Note Auction Wednesday, the 24th of November New Zealand: Interest Rate Decision, RBNZ Press Confidence France: Business Confidence Germany: Ifo Business Climate (Nov), 15-year Bund Auction United States: Durable Goods Orders (Oct), GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q3),  Continuing Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (Oct),  Goods Trade Balance (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, retail Inventories Ex Autos (Oct), Core PCE Price Index (Oct), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov), PCE Price Index (Oct), Personal Income (Oct), Personal Spending (Oct), FOMC Minutes, 4-week and 8- week bill auction Thursday, the 25th of November New Zealand: Balance of Trade Japan: Foreign bond Investment, Coincident Index Final, Leading Economic Index Final (Sep) Germany: GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) Sweden: Monetary Policy Report, Riskbank Rate Decision France: Unemployment Benefit Claims Canada Average weekly earnings YoY Friday, the 26th of November Australia: Retail Sales MoM Prel (Oct) South Korea: Interest Rate Decision France: Consumer Confidence Switzerland: GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) Italy: Business Confidence (Nov)
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Bounces Back

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Bounces Back

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.11.2021 08:40
GBPUSD hits resistance The pound pulled back after Britain’s retail sales registered a steeper drop to -1.3% in October. The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1.3510, a support that has turned into resistance after a failed rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. However, a bearish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment is still pessimistic. 1.3380 is a key support to keep the sterling afloat. A bearish breakout may trigger an extended sell-off to last December’s lows around 1.3200. USDCAD breaks higher The Canadian dollar struggles after a contraction in September’s retail numbers. The US dollar bounced off the resistance-turned-support at 1.2580. This is a sign that the bulls are still in control. A bullish MA cross on the daily timeframe confirms the directional bias for the next few days. The daily resistance at 1.2770 would be the next target. Its break would lead to a test of the double top at 1.2900. In the meantime, the RSI’s overextension has temporarily held the bulls back. We can also expect buying interest during dips. GER 40 struggles for support The Dax 40 tumbles as lockdowns across Europe hurt sentiment. The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart has made buyers cautious in pursuing high valuations. On the hourly chart, a bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the upward momentum. Then a dip below 16200 confirms weakness in the rally, prompting leverage positions to liquidate. The psychological level of 16000 is a congestion area as it coincides with last August’s peak and the 20-day moving average. 16300 is now a fresh hurdle.
Ever Thought About Biofuels to Diversify Your Portfolio?

Ever Thought About Biofuels to Diversify Your Portfolio?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 19.11.2021 16:49
How do you feel about adding a broader range of stocks to our energy investment portfolio watchlist? Let’s see what we can do! By the way, feel free to send us your questions or topics that you would like us to write about in the forthcoming editions, so we’ll try our best to answer them! Trading positions are available to our premium subscribers. First, let’s quickly define what biofuels are: A biofuel is a liquid or gaseous fuel derived from the transformation of non-fossil organic matter from biomass, for example, plant materials produced by agriculture (beets, wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflowers, potatoes, etc.). So, it is considered a source of renewable energy. The combustion of biofuels produces only carbon dioxide (CO2) and steam (H2O) and little or no nitrogen and sulfur oxides. Therefore, biofuels – as being at the crossroads between energy and agricultural commodities – respond to economic drivers (crops/supply, demand, dollar strength, reserves, etc.) and geopolitics of both industrial sectors. Furthermore, they allow their producing countries to reduce their energy dependence on fossil fuels. Key reasons to invest in these alternative energy sources: Given the recent surge of oil and gas prices, biofuels have become somehow more attractive, and consequently one could witness a slight shift in demand from fossil to non-fossil fuels. This was also a central topic of talks during the recent United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP26), which recently took place in Glasgow (Scotland), and where world leaders finally agreed to preliminary rules for trading carbon emissions credits. In addition, as we all know, the combustion of fossil fuels contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regarding biofuels - the carbon emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion has been previously fixed by plants during photosynthesis. Thus, the carbon footprint seems to be a priori neutral. Stock Watchlist (Continued) In the first article, we started a watchlist with some major energy stocks. In the second article, we added some more spicy assets (MLPs). Today, let’s update it with some biofuel-based stocks! As usual, our stock picks will be shared through that link to our dynamic watchlist which will be updated from time to time, as we progress through this portfolio construction process... Below is an example of some indicative metrics: Daily Technical Charts Figure 1 – Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock (daily chart) Figure 2 – Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Stock (daily chart) Figure 3 – Tantech Holdings Ltd. (TANH) Stock (daily chart) In summary, those biofuel-related stocks may present some benefits to diversifying your energy portfolio while covering some alternative fuels as well. As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve a high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now

Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 19.11.2021 16:50
Powell maintains that inflation is transitory, but the monetary theory of inflation suggests otherwise. So, elevated inflation could stay with us!, Some economists downplay the risk stemming from elevated inflation, saying that comparisons to the 1970s style stagflation appear unfounded. They say that labor unions are weaker and economies are less dependent on energy than in the past, which makes inflationary risks less likely to materialize. Isabel Schnabel, Board Member of the European Central Bank, even compared the current inflationary spike to a sneeze, i.e., “the economy’s reaction to dust being kicked up in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing recovery”. Are those analysts right? Well, in a sense, they are. The economy is not in stagnation with little or no growth and a rising unemployment rate. On the contrary, the US labor market is continuously improving. It’s also true that both the bargaining power of workers and energy’s share in overall expenditure have diminished over the last fifty years. However, general inflation is neither caused by wages nor energy prices. Higher wages simply mean lower profits, so although employees can consume more, employers can spend less. If wages are set above the potential market rates, then unemployment emerges - not inflation. Similarly, higher energy prices affect the composition of spending, but not the overall monetary demand spent on goods and services. It works as follows: when the price of oil increases, people have to spend more money on oil (assuming the amount of consumed oil remains unchanged), which leaves less money available for other goods and services. So, the overall money spent on goods won’t change. As a consequence, the structure of relative prices will change, but widespread prices increases won’t happen. In other words, Milton Friedman’s dictum remains valid: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output”. It’s quite a simple mechanism, even central bankers should be able to understand it: if the stock of goods remains unaltered while the stock of money increases, this, as Frank Shostak put it, “must lead to more money being spent on the unchanged stock of goods – an increase in the average price of goods” Let’s look at the chart below, which displays the annual growth rates in the broad money supply (M2, red line) and in the CPI (green line). We can notice two important things. First, in the 1970s, the pace of broad money supply growth was relatively high, as it reached double-digit values at some point. As a consequence, inflation accelerated, jumping above 10% for a while. In other words, stagflation was born. Since then, the rate of growth in the money supply never reached double-digit numbers on a prolonged basis, including the Great Recession, so high inflation never materialized. And then the pandemic came. In March 2020, the money supply growth rate crossed the 10% threshold and never came back. In February 2021, it reached its record height of 27.1%. The pace of growth in the M2 money aggregate has slowed down since then, dropping to a still relatively high rate of 13%. This is a rate that is almost double the pre-pandemic level (6.8% in February 2020) and the long-term average (7.1% for the 1960-2021 period ). So, actually, given the surge in the broad money supply and the monetary theory of inflation, rapidly rising prices shouldn’t be surprising at all. Second, there is a lag between the money supply growth and the increase in inflation rates. That’s why some analysts don’t believe in the quantity theory of money – there is no clear positive correlation between the two variables. This is indeed true – but only when you take both variables from the same periods. The correlation coefficient becomes significant and positive when you take inflation rates with a lag of 18-24 months behind the money supply. As John Greenwood and Steve Hanke explain in opinion for Wall Street Journal, According to monetarism, asset-price inflation should have occurred with a lag of one to nine months. Then, with a lag of six to 18 months, economic activity should have started to pick up. Lastly, after a lag of 12 to 24 months, generalized inflation should have set in. If this relationship is true, then inflation won’t go away anytime soon. After all, the money supply accelerated in March 2020 and peaked in February 2021, growing at more than four times the “optimal” rate that would keep inflation at the 2-percent target, according to Greenwood and Hanke. In line with the monetarist description, the CPI rates accelerated in March 2021, exactly one year after the surge in the money supply. So, if this lag is stable, the peak in inflation rates should happen in Q1 2022, and inflation should remain elevated until mid-2022 at least. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, if the theory of inflation outlined above is correct, elevated inflation will stay with us for several more months. Therefore, it’s not transitory, as the central bank tells us. Instead, inflation should remain high for a while, i.e., as long as the money supply growth won’t slow down and go back below 10% on a sustained basis. What’s more, the velocity of money, which plunged when the epidemic started, is likely to rise in the coming months, additionally boosting inflation. So, I would say that Milton Friedman would probably forecast more persistent inflation than Jerome Powell, allocating some of his funds into the yellow metal. Gold is, after all, considered to be an inflation hedge, and it should appreciate during the period of high and rising inflation. Although so far gold hasn’t benefited from higher inflation, this may change at some point. Actually, investors’ worries about inflation intensified in October, and gold started to show some reaction to the inflationary pressure. My bet is that the next year will be better for gold than 2021: the Fed’s tightening cycle will already be inaugurated, and thus traders will be able to focus on inflation, possibly shifting the allocation of some of their funds into gold as a safe-haven asset. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
With Gold and the Buck, as Told, You're in Luck

With Gold and the Buck, as Told, You're in Luck

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 22.11.2021 08:17
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 627th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 20 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com As time is at a bit of a premium for penning this week's missive, (even as Gold is priced at a massive discount by valuation), let's jump right in. The macro question at large we oft receive is: â–  "How come Gold isn't much higher with all the money printing?" Macro indeed per the above Gold Scoreboard, price having settled yesterday (Friday) at $1847, just 46% of our valuation level of $3993. To be sure per the right-hand panel Gold is, on balance, in ascent toward chasing the unconscionable rise in the U.S. "M2" money supply; yet the gap from here to up there remains HUGE! The micro question of late we oft receive is: â–  "How come Gold is going up even if the Dollar is also going up?" Micro indeed as such phenomenon does on occasion occur given (for the ad nauseath time) Gold plays no currency favourites. To be sure, both Gold and the Buck have been on the rise per their percentage tracks for the 15 trading days thus far in November. Here as shown, Gold is +3.5% and the Dollar Index is +2.1%. Yes, Gomer, it really can happen: In fact "surprise, surprise, surprise" if measuring from mid-year 2014, (albeit their respective routes hardly are in linear harmony), Gold is +39.7% and yet the Dollar Index is +20.4%. So even more broadly there, no directional favoritism. And yet from that date some seven years ago, the supply of Gold is only +10.7% whereas the U.S. "M2" money supply is +88.4%. Further with specific respect (or lack thereof) to the Dollar, recall from Econ 101 class that more of something (in this case much more) makes it worth less, arguably in the Dollar's case worthless. And yet an inevitable -- some say forcibly imminent -- Federal Reserve interest rate increase (versus, for example, sovereign bank rates in Europe still seen as staying essentially negative for the foreseeable future), is therefore getting the Dollar a bid such as to push the Buck into the lead of the currencies' so-called Ugly Dog Contest. 'Course, attempting to explain irrationality is an exercise in same, in this case more Dollars nonetheless being worth more whatevers. And even irrespective of inflation, we read speculation this past week of the €uro ultimately collapsing ... and being replaced by the Dollar. "What?" But then, could such dual-continent currency still be deemed a "Federal Reserve Note"? Either way, we wouldn't recommend your losing sleep over this whimsy. For if you've Gold, you're fine. And looking .9999 fine is our chart of Gold's weekly bars with their parabolic long trend, now neatly in place these past three weeks. Yes, Gold put in an acceptable net loss for this recent week after having been up for five of the prior seven. However, the daily table therein of our BEGOS Markets "Breakout?" suggestions popped up last evening with "Sell" for both precious metals. So some further slipping may be seen into the ensuing week; yet on balance by the bars' structure in the chart, the 1800s not only appear safe, but the dashed regression trend line is now more perceptively rotating from negative toward positive. And that would tie in well (as historically noted last week) with Gold reaching 1971 during this new parabolic Long run: Thus having awakened the dip buyers, let's turn to the StateSide economy, by which our Economic Barometer had a sound week and sufficiently so as to put it on pace toward recording its second best month year-to-date. For the week's 14 incoming metrics, 12 were improvements over the prior period, the only two negatives being inflationary October Import Prices (even ex-Oil) and a slight slowing in that month's Housing Starts. But the latter was mitigated by growth in Building Permits, plus a firm increase in November's National Association of Home Builders Index. November also scored marked increases for both the New York State Empire and Philly Fed Indexes. Other positives included October's Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Conference Board's lagging read of Leading Indicators. "'Tis all good, right?" Well, just bear in mind there, Bunky, that much of Q3's Gross Domestic Product "growth" was mitigated by a very high Chain Deflator, (i.e. inflationary rather than real growth): And as to Q3 Earnings Season, it just ended as follows: for the S&P 500, 80% of reporting constituents beat both estimates and prior period results. 'Tis rare when the latter keeps up with the former. However more broadly, 1,440 other mid-cap and smaller companies by our tabulation found just 56% having actually improved over 2020's Q3 shutdown period. That's an uh-oh... But in toto, great economics (arguably inflationarily but not really) + great earnings (by estimates but not always actual growth) = S&P 500 all-time highs. Moreover, money is pouring into the stock market per the website's S&P Moneyflow page: "Let's all buy high!" 'Tis quite extraordinary. "So then maybe this a blow-off top, mmb..." Squire, we long ago stopped counting the number of would-be S&P blow-off tops. Remember: as we've herein put forth for many-a-year, this is now the age of the stock market being the Great American Savings Account. "You have to be IN!" they say. "Gold's for the BIN!" they say. And then there's the ever-annoying individual blurter: "I bought X back at blah and am now making BLAH!" For whom we have this important reminder: the market capitalization of the S&P 500 as of Friday night is $41.4 trillion; yet the liquid M2 money supply of the U.S. is but half that at $21.4 trillion. So when it all goes wrong, good luck in getting out with something. Meanwhile amongst it all going good, we read that a record number of StateSide workers are quitting their jobs, the notion being they can do better doing something else. Watch for this great mania of "There's a better way!" and "My stocks are so up!" ultimately ending with "What was I thinking?" Then from the "We Knew This Was Coming Dept." it seems just mere weeks go by before yet again U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet "Old Yeller" Yellen has to chase down the Legislature 'cause she's run out of dough to make the country go. For sanity's sakes: "Got Gold?" Hopefully as the Fed Chair passes to Lael "The Brain" Brainard, she and the Treasury Secretary can sort it all out. (See too: "In Like Flint", 20th Century Fox, '67). From steely flint to a wee loss of glint describes at present our precious metals. Per the two-panel graphic below, we see on the left a bit of a topping pattern in the daily bars, but again with structural support still well within the 1800s. Then on the right in Gold's 10-day Market Profile, 1864 clearly is the dominant price traded across these past two weeks: Silver, too, shows similar toppiness per her daily bars (at left) with the low 24s/high 23s as supportive; then in her Profile (at right), 25.15 is where the bulk of Sister Silver's action has been: In sum, we see a bit of near-term pullback for Gold and Silver, but nothing really materially daunting, especially given the notion of 1971 during Gold's current parabolic up run; (you'll recall from a week ago, arriving at that level equates to the median gain of the 43 prior parabolic Long trends since the year 2001). And at some point -- you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor, Maine to Honolulu and right 'round the word knows that -- the Buck ultimately shall run out of luck. Indeed to that end (and so much more), in having opened with a couple of questions, let's close with one that came in this past week from a highly-valued publisher of The Gold Update: "Do you think $1900 is nigh?" Our response in kind: "$4000 is nigh." Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.deMeadville.com
Intraday Market Analysis – Nasdaq Hits Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – Nasdaq Hits Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.11.2021 09:20
NAS 100 pulls back Investors took profit after Jerome Powell’s renomination as US Federal Reserve Chairman. The tech index saw an acceleration in its rally after a break above the previous peak (16450). Strong momentum suggests that buyers are committed to keeping the uptrend intact after a brief pause. However, the RSI’s triple top in the overbought area indicates exhaustion, and a fall below 16550 has triggered a correction. 16300 is the next support from a previous supply zone. A rebound needs to clear 16750 before the rally could resume. AUDUSD struggles for support China’s property slowdown and lower commodity prices weigh on the Australian dollar. The pair has given up most of its gains from the October rally, a sign that support is hard to come by. Nonetheless, a series of lower lows has attracted trend followers’ interest in maintaining the status quo. 0.7220 is an intermediate support. An oversold RSI may prompt the short side to cover, raising bids in the process. However, the bulls will need to lift offers around the former support at 0.7300 before they could expect to turn the tables. NZDJPY seeks support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure after disappointing retail sales in Q3. The kiwi is seeking support after a surge above last May’s peak at 81.20 led the daily RSI into an overbought situation. Short-term sentiment remains bearish as the pair struggles to achieve a new high. 80.55 is a major resistance after the bulls’ multiple failed attempts. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a reversal towards 82.00. Otherwise, a drop below 79.50 would send the pair towards September’s high at 78.50.
All alone with bitcoin

All alone with bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.11.2021 11:06
With this psychological burden, you want to stack your odds as good as possible to gain an edge for balance. Bitcoin provides such advantages. The inherent volatility allows for follow-through after an entry. In other words, one gets good risk/reward-ratios in midterm plays on bitcoin. Also, necessary for the long-term time frame player since hodling has another psychological hurdle that piled on top can be devastating. You won’t find many traders who bought a bundle of bitcoin when it traded at a dollar and are still holding it without ever having sold or rebought some. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, the Doji explosion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Quarterly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The quarterly chart of bitcoin shows how explosive moves to the upside can be. If you look at the yellow lines, you will see that a small Doji builds after a retracement, and then prices explode within the next quarter like rockets. This trading behavior provides for sensational risk/reward-ratios. The quarterly chart shows a bullish quarter. Even though all-time highs have been rejected, we see the year ending on a bullish note. The great thing about this self-directed profession, on the other hand, is that you get all the credit. Work directly translates into money, without the typical step in between, selling a product or a service. If you are good at what you are doing in the trading/investing arena, rewards can be more than plentiful. No gift baskets need to be sent to a boss or coworker. True rewards for arduous work to yourself. A very self-fulfilling profession indeed. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, most often trending: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The monthly chart illustrates the steepness of the trend, and yellow lines provide a possible long reload opportunity, which will take all-time highs out next year. Another benefit for individual traders choosing to trade bitcoin is its unique personality of trending much more than most trading instruments. This unique feature adds a massive edge to a trader’s trading arsenal. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, freeing investment capital fast: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. But this isn’t all. From a trading perspective, bitcoin supports the unsupported individual in comparison to gold or silver as alternate wealth preservation tools due to its speed. Risk is the most defining aspect for a trader, and consequently, capital exposure time is the most crucial aspect. After all, the longer money is in the market, the more exposed it is, let’s say, to unexpected news and six sigma events. Market money parked cannot produce elsewhere and is also emotionally draining. No such thing in bitcoin.A look at the weekly time frame illustrates what we mean by this. It took less than eight weeks for bitcoin to gain staggering percentage moves within the first and second leg in this steep regression channel up. We also just entered a low-risk entry zone again for a third leg to mature. In short, you are all alone with bitcoin, but at least you picked the most ideal alliance with this trading vehicle to stack the odds in your favor. All alone with bitcoin: The business of market play is unique. You’re not learning this skill in school, mentors are hard to come by, and it isn’t a group sport. It is advisable to seek out a community of like-minded traders like our free telegram channel, since spouses rarely can comprehend the steepness of the learning curve and the challenges of constant self-reflection and pain until the consistency is mastered.  While one typically can team up and is supported within a group at the mastery level required, it’s a solo sport in trading.  Statistics support that the likeliest reason for failure in this business is underestimating the time required to acquire all the important skills necessary for success. New traders run either out of money or patience.  The press makes it look so easy, and the fact that all one needs to do is press a button doesn’t help towards a more respectful attitude. Yet, the mere truth is that it is one of the most demanding businesses to find oneself into. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Betting on Hawkish Fed

Betting on Hawkish Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.11.2021 15:46
S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.We‘re experiencing an overreaction in real assets – as stated yesterday:(…) the Fed would have to reverse course once the tapering effects start biting some more – not now, with still more than $100bn monthly addition. Cyclicals and commodities that had massively appreciated vs. year ago (oil doubled), are feeling the pinch of fresh economic activity curbs speculation in spite of the polar shift of U.S. strength in energy of 2019 and before. Begging the OPEC+ to increase production might not do the trick, and with so much inflation already in (and still to come), the key investment theme is of real assets strength.Precious metals have broken out, are no longer an underdog, and the inflation data will not decelerate for quite a few months still. And even as they would, it would come at a palpable cost to the real economy, and the resolute fresh stimulus action wouldn‘t be then far off. As I wrote in Apr 2020, it‘s about the continuous stimulus that‘s the go-to response anytime the horizon darkens, for whatever reason. Wash, rinse, repeat.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls lost the momentary upper hand, and value recovery isn‘t yet strong enough to carry it forward. A less heavy move in bonds – temporary yields stabilization – would be needed to calm down stock market nerves.Credit MarketsTreasuries held up best, and that‘s characteristic of a very risk-off sentiment. The low volume in HYG isn‘t a promise of much strength soon returning.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals turned sharply lower, and haven‘t stabilized yet. Bond market pressures are keenly felt even though inflation expectations didn‘t follow with the same veracity. The next few days will be really telling.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength needs to follow. The fact that it would be happening when the dollar is strengthening, and many countries are tapping their strategic reserves, bodes well for black gold‘s recovery.CopperCopper springboard bulding goes on, and the CRB Index isn‘t tellingly yielding – the hawkish Fed bets better be taken with a (at least short-term) pinch of salt.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still going sideways, and today‘s resilience is a good omen – across the board for risk assets.SummaryS&P 500 bulls need tech to come alive again, and odds are it would with a reprieve in spiking yields. While bond markets are getting it right, yesterday‘s fear in corporate bonds was a bit too much – the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks. Markets are prematurely speculating on that outcome, which would be a question of second or third quarter next year. Treasuries have though clearly topped, and stocks do top with quite a few months‘ lag – we aren‘t there yet. Enjoy the commodities ride, and confidence gradually returning to precious metals.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks

S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 22.11.2021 16:46
The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch . The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached the New Record High Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high of 16,625.86 on Friday, led by megacap tech stock rallies. It accelerated above its short-term upward trend line after breaking above the resistance level of 16,400 on Thursday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions. Apple and Microsoft at New Record Highs Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend after breaking above the resistance level of around $152-154. It reached the new record high on Friday at $161.02. Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance, as it reached the new record high of $345.10. The two biggest megacap tech stocks reached new record highs, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% higher this morning. We will likely see some more short-term fluctuations along the record high level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation and a flat correction within an uptrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is fluctuating along the 4,700 level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation following the October-November rally. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Article by Decrypt Media

More Public Debt Is Coming. Another Gold’s Rally Ahead?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 23.11.2021 15:13
  Democrats are not slowing down - the social spending bill follows the infrastructure package. Will gold benefit, or will it get into deep water? Will the American spending spree ever end? On Monday last week (November 15, 2021), President Biden signed a $1 trillion infrastructure package, and just a few days later, Biden’s social spending bill worth another $1.75 trillion passed the US House of Representatives. Apparently, $1 trillion was not enough! Apparently, we don’t already have too much money chasing too few goods. No, the economy needs even more money! Yes, I can almost hear the lament of American families: “we need more money, we already bought everything possible, we already own three cars and a lot of other useless crap, but we need more! Please, the almighty government, give us some bucks, let your funds revive our land”. Luckily, the gracious Uncle Sam listened to the prayers of its poor citizens. Given the above, one could think that the US economy is not already heavily indebted. Well, it’s the exact opposite. As the chart below shows, the American public debt is more than $27 trillion and 125% of GDP, but who cares except for a few boring economists? Of course, neither infrastructure nor spending bill will increase the fiscal deficits and overall indebtedness to a similar extent as the pandemic spending packages. These funds will be spread over years. Additionally, the fiscal deficit should narrow in FY 2022 as pandemic relief spending phases out (this is already happening, as the chart below shows), while the economic recovery combined with inflation tax bracket creep increases tax revenues. However, both of Biden’s bills will increase indebtedness, lowering the financial resilience of the US economy. What’s more, the overall debt is much larger than the public debt I focused on here. Other categories of debt are also rising. For instance, total household debt has jumped 6.2% in the third quarter of 2021 year-over-year, to a new record of $15.2 trillion.   Implications for Gold What does the fiscal offensive imply for the precious metal market? In the short run, not much. Fiscal hawks like me will complain, but gold is a tough metal that does not cry. Both of Biden’s pieces of legislation have been widely accepted, so their impact has already been incorporated into prices. Actually, the actual bills could be even seen as conservative – compared to Biden’s initial radical proposals. In the long run, fiscal exuberance should be supportive of gold prices. The ever-rising public debt should zombify the economy and erode the confidence in the US dollar, which could benefit the yellow metal. However, the empire collapses slowly, and there is still a long way before people cease to choose the greenback as their most beloved currency (there is simply no alternative!). So, it seems that, in the foreseeable future, gold’s path will still be dependent mainly on inflation worries and expectations of the Fed’s action. Most recently, gold prices have stabilized somewhat after the recent rally, as the chart below shows. Normal profit-taking took place, but gold found itself under pressure also because of the hawkish speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He described inflation as a heavy snowfall that would stay on the ground for a while, rather than a one-inch dusting: Consider a snowfall, which we know will eventually melt. Snow is a transitory shock. If the snowfall is one inch and is expected to melt away the next day, it may be optimal to do nothing and wait for it to melt. But if the snowfall is 6 to 12 inches and expected to be on the ground for a week, you may want to act sooner and shovel the sidewalks and plow the streets. To me, the inflation data are starting to look a lot more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward. So, brace yourselves, a janitor is coming with a big shovel to clean the snow! Just imagine Powell with a long-eared cap, gloves, and galoshes giving a press conference! At least the central bankers would finally do something productive! Or… maybe shoveling is not coming! Although the Fed may turn a bit more hawkish if inflation stays with us for longer than expected previously, it should remain behind the curve, while the real interest rates should stay ultra-low. The December FOMC meeting will provide us with more clues, so stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Dax 40 December hit the buying opportunity at 16080/060. Try longs with stops below 16040.

Dax 40 December hit the buying opportunity at 16080/060. Try longs with stops below 16040.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 23.11.2021 13:31
EuroStoxx 50 December just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting minor support at 4310/00. FTSE 100 December a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 7240/60. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax holding minor resistance at 16140/160 to retest strong support at 16090/060. Try longs with stops below 16040. A break lower however is a sell signal with 16060/090 working as resistance targeting 16000 & a buying opportunity at 15960/930. Try longs with stops below 15900. A break above 16180 keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx holding the head & shoulders neckline resistance at 4330/40 targets 4310/00 then 4270/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. Resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Longs at 7170/50 target 7200 then first resistance at 7240/60 for some profit taking. If we continue higher look for 7300/10 this week. Emini S&P December new all time high exactly at the 4735/40 target in the bull trend, but severely overbought conditions finally kicked in with a sudden collapse to the 4670/68 target. This leaves a bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. We do have severely negative divergence on the daily chart so there is a risk of a further correction but I think there are too many retail traders betting on a crash for it to happen just yet. Nasdaq December hit the next target of 16640/660 next target then a new all time high at 16767. However prices then crashed leaving a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by a retest of last week's low at 35490. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the best support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4610. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December collapsed through first support at 16450/400 to target 16300/270 then best support for today at 16230/200. Try longs with stops below 16150. A break lower however sees 16200/230 working as resistance to target 16100 & 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15800. First resistance at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December strong support at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. First resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Qatar's Leniency Towards Crypto Violators Under Scrutiny: Global Watchdog Calls for Stronger Action

Bitcoin: the dark side of institutional love

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.11.2021 13:40
Bitcoin has suffered from the former institutional love affair with it. On Monday, a significant sell-off in the stock and bond market prevented the first cryptocurrency from returning to the upside. The recent sell-off confirmed a bearish scenario for bitcoin for now. And one should watch closely to see if this situation becomes toxic for the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin fluctuated widely on Monday, and at some point, it managed to recover an initially weak start. But pressure on equities in the US trading session and the ongoing strengthening of the dollar dragged crypto down. From intraday highs, bitcoin lost 6.3% by the end of the day, at one point falling to $55.6K. The bears showed who is in control now, clearly demonstrating that bounce attempts are stumbling into aggressive selling. In such an environment, it should come as no surprise that the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index moved into "fear" territory, losing 17 points to 33 - its lowest level since October 1st. Perhaps the following line of defence for the bulls could be the $52.0-53.5K area, where the previous extremes and the 61.8% retracement from the September-November rally are concentrated. One can only wonder how ETHUSD continues to hold its critical $4000 level amid such aggressive pressure on BTCUSD. The first cryptocurrency appears to be under pressure from institutional sell-offs, of which there are drastically less in Ether.
Tech Sell-Off Continues

Tech Sell-Off Continues

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 23.11.2021 22:41
November 23, 2021  $USD, EMU, Federal Reserve, Oil, OPEC+, SPR, UK, US Overview:  The markets are unsettled.  Bond yields have jumped, tech stocks are leading an equity slump, and yesterday's crude oil bounce reversed.  Gold, which peaked last week near $1877, has been dumped to around $1793.  The tech sell-off in the US carried into the Asia Pacific session, and Hong Kong led most markets lower.  The local holiday let Japanese markets off unscathed, though the Nikkei futures are off about 0.4%.  Australia and India managed to post minor gains as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth time in five sessions.  Europe's Stoxx 600 has slid around 1.5% today, its fourth consecutive decline, but has clawed back nearly half the gains.  It is the longest retreat in two months.  US futures are lower, with the NASDAQ leading the move.   Near 1.64%, the US 10-year yield is at the upper end of this month's range.  Last month it reached 1.70%.  European bond yields are mostly 4-6 bp higher, and peripheral spreads have widened a little.  The dollar is sitting in the middle of the major currencies.  The dollar bloc, sterling, and the Norwegian krone, which are the risk-on, levered to growth currencies, are weaker.  The euro, yen, and Swiss franc are little changed but firmer.  The dollar briefly traded above JPY115.00 in Asia, without Tokyo,  before being pushed back. The steady euro has taken some pressure off most of the regional currencies.  The Turkish lira has been in a virtual freefall following President Erdogan's spirited defense of his efforts to drive down rates.    There was around 10 lira to the dollar in the middle of November.  Today, at its peak, there is about 12.48 lira to the dollar.   Asia Pacific Over the weekend, Japan expressed willingness to cap its strategic reserves.  Press reports indicated yesterday that India is amenable to coordinating a release of some of its oil stocks.  South Korea may also participate.  It has been under consideration for a couple of weeks, at least, in the US, and China appears willing to repeat September's release of crude from its reserves.  However,  it seems naive to have expected OPEC+ to simply standby.  January WTI posted a bearish outside down day ahead of the weekend by trading on both sides of the previous day's range and settling below the previous session's low.  Follow-through selling yesterday took it down about $1.20 from the close, but when OPEC+ announced that a coordinated release of the oil could prompt it to reconsider its own plans.  It is to meet next week to review its strategy. Through yesterday's low, January WTI had retreated by nearly 11% from the October 25 higher near $83.85.   A band of resistance is seen between $78 and $80.   OPEC+ had previously agreed to boost output by 400k barrels a day per month to restore pre-pandemic output levels.  That said, not all the members can produce their quota, leading to a shortfall.  OPEC+, the IEA, and EIA all seem to agree that supply-demand considerations shift in next year, and the market will once again be in oversupply.  Moreover, OPEC+ argues that the real dislocation is not with oil as its with gas.   The US imports about 2.9 mln barrels a day, India, about 4.2 mln, and Japan, about 3.1 mln barrels a day.  South Korea imports around 2.5 mln barrels a day.  Together it is around 12.7 mln barrels a day of imports.   If together, 100 mln barrels are released, about eight days of imports would be covered.  This is a high estimate.  India, for example, has indicated it may release 5 mln barrels.   Australia's flash November PMI was better than expected.  Manufacturing edged up to 58.5 from 58.2, while services rose to 55.0 from 51.8.  This produced a 55.0 composite reading, a gain from 52.1 in October.  Recall, the pandemic and lockdown led to weakness in the economy in the May-August period.  The composite PMI bottomed in August at 43.3.  It has risen for three months but remains well off the peak in April of 58.9.  Separately, New Zealand real retail sales were hit in Q3 by the social restrictions, but the drop was not quite as bad as feared.  Reall retail sales fell 8.1% after a 3.3% increase in Q2.  Economists (Bloomberg median) had anticipated a 10.5% pullback.  The RBNZ meets the first thing tomorrow and is widely expected to hike 25 bp, to lift the cash rate to 0.75%. There is still a slight bias toward a larger move in the swaps market.   The dollar briefly traded above JPY115.00 for the first time since March 2017.  We note that Japanese dealers were on holiday and did not participate in the move.  As risk-off sentiment took over, the dollar was sold back to JPY114.50.  Resistance in Europe has been found near JPY114.80.  Note that there is an option for about $980 mln at JPY115.50 that expires tomorrow.  The Australian dollar initially edged lower to almost $0.7210, its lowest levels since October 1 before steadying. A break of $0.7200 signals a retest of the late September low near $0.7170.  Initial resistance is seen in the $0.7230-$0.7250 area.  The PBOC is sending plenty of verbal signals that it does not want to see strong yuan gains, and today's fixing underscores that point.  The dollar's reference rate was set at CNY6.3929, wider than usual above the market expectation (Bloomberg) for CNY6.3904.  The greenback is firm inside yesterday's range.  Caution is advised here as the PBOC could escalate its disapproval.   Europe The flash EMU November PMI was better than expected.  The aggregate manufacturing PMI rose to 58.6 from 58.3.  The market anticipated a decline.  The service PMI rose to 56.6 from 54.6, also defying expectations for a sequentially weaker report.  The composite snapped a three-month slide and rose to 55.8 from 54.2.   The cyclical peak was in July at 60.2.    A flash release is made for Germany and France.    German manufacturing slowed slightly (57.6 from 57.8) and held up better than expected (Bloomberg median 56.9).  Services actually improved (53.4 from 52.4).  The composite rose to 52.8 from 52.0 to end a three-month downdraft after peaking in July at 62.4.  French numbers were even better.  The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6 from 53.6.  The service PMI rose to 58.2 from 56.6.   The composite improved to 56.3 from 54.7 to snap a four-month fall.  Recall that yesterday the Bundesbank warned that the German economy may practically stagnate this quarter and that inflation may approach 6% this month.   The UK's flash PMI was more mixed.  The manufacturing PMI had been expected to have slowed but instead improved for the second consecutive month (58.2 from 57.8).  Services were nearly as weak as anticipated slipping to 58.6 from 59.1.  The composite eased slightly to 57.7 from 57.8, ending a two-month recovery from the June-August soft patch.  Meanwhile, Prime Minister Johnson's rambling speech yesterday hurt people's ears, and in terms of substance,  the changes to social care funding that may result in lower-income people having to sell homes to pay for support did not go over well.  It is spurring talk of a possible cabinet reshuffle.  The euro has edged to a new low for the third session today, slipping to almost $1.1225 before catching a bid that lifted it back to $1.1275.  There is an option for around 765 mln euros at $1.1220 that expires today.  The nearby cap is seen in the $1.1290-$1.1310 area.   The euro may struggle to sustain upticks ahead of tomorrow's US PCE deflator report (inflation to accelerate).    Sterling met new sellers when it poked above $1.3400. It has ground lower in the European session, and sterling fell to almost $1.3355.  Note that the low for the year and month was set on November 12, slightly above $1.3350.  We see little chart support below there until closer to $1.3165.   America We suspect many pundits exaggerated the link between the renomination of Powell for a second term and the sell-off in US debt and technology shares.  First, it was not a surprise.  Second, it assumes a substantive difference in the conduct of monetary policy between Powell and Brainard.  There isn't.  The difference was on regulatory issues and on the role of climate change.  Third, the idea that the Fed may accelerate its bond purchases next month was sparked by the high CPI reading on November 10.  Yesterday, Bostic joined fellow Fed President Bullard.  Two governors (Clarida and Waller) also seem to be moving in that direction (Waller may be faster than Clarida). The fact or the matter, nearly all of the high-frequency data for October, including employment, auto sales,  retail sales, industrial production, and inflation, came in higher than expected.  The US sees the preliminary November PMI today.  It is expected to have risen for the second consecutive month after fall June-September.   The reception to yesterday's US two- and five-year note auctions was relatively poor.  The higher yields (compared with the previous auctions) did not produce better bid-cover ratios.  Today the Treasury comes back with $55 bln seven-year notes and re-opens the two-year floater.  Many observers see the debt ceiling constraint being likely an early 2022 problem rather than this year.  Still, tomorrow's sale of the four-week bill may be the test.  Recall that at last week's auction, the 4-week bill yield doubled to 11 bp.   Europe's virus surge and social restrictions became a market factor last week.  Many think that the US is a few weeks behind Europe.  The seven-day infliction rate in the US rose 18% week-over-week.  Several states, including Colorado, Minnesota, and Michigan, are being particularly hard hit.  Nationwide 59% of Americans are reportedly fully vaccinated. However, it leaves about 47 mln adults and 12 mln teens unvaccinated.  The risk-off mood and the drop in oil prices are helping the US dollar extend its gains against the Canadian dollar.  The greenback, which started the month below CAD1.24, is now pushing close to CAD1.2750 to take out last month's high.  A move above here would target CAD1.28 and then the September high near CAD1.2900.  Still, the market is getting stretched, and the upper Bollinger Band is slightly below CAD1.2730.  The risk-off mood does not sit right with the Mexican peso either.  The dollar settled above MXN21.00 yesterday, its highest close in eight months.  The same forces have lifted it to MXN21.1250 today. However, the anticipated gain in September retail sales (0.8% Bloomberg median after a flat report in August) may not give the peso much support if the risk-off continues. The high for the year was set on March 8 near MXN21.6360.   Disclaimer
FX Update: USD kneejerks higher as Powell gets nod for second term

FX Update: USD kneejerks higher as Powell gets nod for second term

John Hardy John Hardy 23.11.2021 17:08
Summary:  US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair and will nominate Lael Brainard to be promoted to Vice Chair of the Fed, a move that sent the USD modestly higher and US yields sharply higher, though some of the reaction may have been on pent-up reaction to prior developments. Elsewhere, the descent in the Turkish lira is turning dire, while the kiwi is weaker ahead of an RBNZ meeting tonight. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term Surprising a sizable minority and perhaps myself to a degree, US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair, while seeking to promote Lael Brainard from her current position to Vice Chair. The most prominent reason given for not going with Brainard is that her confirmation process may have proven contentious, something Biden wanted to avoid, and given extensive Democratic party support for Powell, the progressive wing aside, it was always the “easy option”. Brainard will still have to go through a confirmation process with the Senate. More interesting is the Brainard was not nominated to Vice Chair in the banking supervision and regulation role that the soon-gone Quarles occupied, a role that many envisioned for her. Biden has more nominees to consider for Quarles’ replacement and other empty spots, but continuity appears assured, though a Vice Chair Brainard will carry more weight when she dissents on non-monetary policy issues in the future (she never dissented on FOMC votes but has dissented more than 20 times on board votes linked to loosening regulation on US financial institutions). Other positions at the Fed will need filling as well, including the replacement of Quarles as banking supervisor. The market reaction to the news was fairly straightforward and “as expected” algorithmically, i.e., Brainard was supposed to be the more dovish pick, so Biden going with Powell saw the USD stronger as the market priced in about 10 basis points more in the way of Fed hikes through the end of next year. It’s tough to tell whether some of the reaction was the market simply adjusting to have this important issue “out of the way” allowing traders to price in other recent developments, like hot US data and Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments on possibly speeding up the pace of the Fed’s taper of asset purchases at the December FOMC meeting. The next test for whether this USD move can extend will be with tomorrow’s October PCE Inflation print and the FOMC minutes. For USDJPY, as I argue below, an extension higher  likely needs more upside from longer US yields. US President Biden will speak today on the economy and “lowering prices for the American people” which many believe will include a release of crude oil from US strategic reserves. That’s a risky move if it fails. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY spilled over the 115.00 barrier in the wake of Powell getting the nod for a second term, with  the move now trying to decide whether it can stick. Arguably, the rise in Fed policy expectations don’t mean much if the longer end of the US yield curve remains anchored as it has lately, which continues to suggest that the market sees inflation as transitory and/or that Fed potential on rates will max out around 2.0% and crush the growth and inflation outlook. While 10-year US yields were sharply higher yesterday, they’re still bogged down in the range since the pivot high of 1.70% in October and the cycle high near 1.75% all the way back at the end of March. The logjam needs to break there and send US long yields higher for better fundamental support for a significant break above the 115.00 level in USDJPY. European politics in the spotlight – with Germany dealing with a new Covid ave and the ongoing natural gas and power crunch, it is time for the government coalition to announce itself and begin ruling. An announcement of the “stoplight” coalition could be imminent and we’ll have to watch the awkward combination closely, particularly the LDP Lindner’s attitude toward spending as the traditionally liberal party’s supply side principles are at odds with its Social Democratic and Green coalition partners inclinations, although energy emergencies are not political, but must be dealt with.  Elsewhere, Italian president Mattarella announced he will be stepping down. If, as some believe, an effort is made to replace his mostly ceremonial role with Mario Draghi, elections would have to be held. And the French election season will only heat up from here, where we watch whether Macron can keep the populists Zemmour and Le Pen at bay.  The Euro is getting very cheap – bigger fiscal, an ECB reverse repo facility, and a non-Covid constrained outlook by spring could have EURUSD in a very different place by then. Antipodean action- the Aussie has risen sharply versus the kiwi (NZD) over the last couple of sessions as the news flow for the  Aussie has improved notably, with China’s central bank possibly signaling it is ready to bring stimulus, some of the news flow in the property sector improving, and especially as iron ore prices have jumped sharply, particularly overnight, on all of the above plus anticipation that China will have to increase steel output soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was one of the quickest central banks to turn hawkish over the summer and abandon QE and was only delayed slightly in hiking rates by New Zealand’s first Covid outbreak in many months over the summer. The central bank chief Adrian Orr has made it clear that the bank is on the path or many more rate hikes to come and the market has priced in a policy rate of 1.50% by the April meeting of next year versus the current 0.50%. Most believe that the central bank will only hike 25 bps tonight but a significant minority believe that the bank will hike 50 bps. As important will be the market mood (if risk sentiment is weak on further US yield rises, for example, the impact of any RBNZ move may be muted) and whether guidance is able to meet lofty expectations for further tightening. The NZ 2-year yield has traded flat at elevated levels since late October, while NZDUSD has declined, arguably on the fresh momentum in Fed expectations, so moving the needle may require that the RBNZ deliver a 50 basis point hike and even more hawkish guidance. Turkish lira move getting downright disorderly – Turkish President was out yesterday complimenting the recent Turkish Central Bank chief’s decision to cut rates another 100 basis points and declaring that the Turkish government would concentrate on policies that encourage economic growth. In rather dire language, he drew parallels between the current situation and the struggle to form the modern Turkish state in 1923 in the wake of World War I. As of this writing, USDTRY traded near 12.50 after starting last week near 10.00, a breathtaking move. Much more of this kind of price action, and the risk of hyperinflation will swing into view. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe most important trend shift was yesterday’s huge dump in precious metals – look at the momentum scores for the last 2- and 5 days. Otherwise, most trends of late are extending with the exception of the badly fading NZD. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairsThe precious metals in for a rough ride on the USD- and US yield move in the wake of the Fed Chair nomination move yesterday. Elsewhere, getting some hefty trend readings in USD/SEK and UDS/NOK, which remain high beta to Euro weakness. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1445 – US Nov. Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI 1500 – UK BoE Governor Bailey at House of Lords 1500 – US Nov. Richmond Fed Manufacturing 1730 – ECB's Makhlouf to speak 1800 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Beaudry to speak 2130 – API’s Weekly Petroleum Stock Report 0030 – Japan Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate Announcement
Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Stays Under Pressure

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Stays Under Pressure

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.11.2021 09:15
EURUSD struggles to rebound The euro bounced back after PMI readings in the eurozone exceeded expectations. The pair is testing July 2020’s lows around 1.1200. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart may limit the downward pressure for now. We can expect a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd as price action stabilizes. Sentiment remains fragile though and sellers may fade the next rebound. The bulls will need to lift 1.1360 before a reversal could take shape. Failing that, a bearish breakout would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 1.1100. NZDUSD lacks support The New Zealand dollar softened after the RBNZ met market expectations and raised its cash rate by 25bps. The downward pressure has increased after 0.6980 failed to contain the sell-off. The pair has given up all gains from the October rally, suggesting a lack of interest in bidding up the kiwi. An oversold RSI caused a rebound as short-term traders took profit and the bears were swift in selling into strength. The directional bias remains bearish unless 0.7010 is cleared. The September low at 0.6860 is the next support. UKOIL bounces back Brent crude recovers on speculation that OPEC+ may lower production to counter a release of strategic reserves. A break below 79.30 has shaken out the weak hands. The price has met buying interest over the daily demand zone around 77.70, which coincides with last July’s peak. A surge above 82.00 puts the bears on the defensive. Short-covering would exacerbate short-term volatility. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pullback. Then 85.50 is a key hurdle before the uptrend could resume.
Market Quick Take - November 22, 2021

Market Quick Take - November 22, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2021 10:04
Summary:  Equity markets closed last week somewhat mixed, but the Asian session was mostly strong on indications that the Chinese PBOC is shifting its attitude on monetary policy toward easing. Elsewhere, the difficult wait for the Fed Chair nomination news continues this week ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Crude oil bounced after finding support overnight, but the risk of SPR release and Covid demand worries still linger. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - a new week following a new all-time high in US equities on the close on Friday, which is starting with Nasdaq 100 futures opening up higher trading around the 16,610 level in early European trading. Last week showed that investors and traders are utilizing the Covid-19 lockdown playbook selling off physical companies while buying online companies that are better equipped to navigate new lockdowns in Europe. With the US 10-year yield remaining in a range around the 1.55% there is nothing from preventing equities from extending recent gains. EURUSD and EURGBP – new Covid restrictions across Europe, which has become the center of the latest Covid wave, have crimped sentiment for the euro, as has the still very elevated power and natural gas prices. EURUSD has traded back down toward the lows of the cycle near 1.1265 overnight, with the next psychological magnet lower likely the 1.1000 area as long as the big 1.1500 break level continues to provide resistance. In EURGBP, last week saw the break of the prior major pivot low near 0.8400, with the next objective the post-Brexit vote low near 0.8275. USDJPY – threatened support on Friday on a spike lower in long US treasury, but a reversal of much of that action by this morning in late Asian trading is likewise seeing USDJPY trying to recover back into the higher range, with a focus on the recent top just short of 115.00. We likely need for long US treasury yields to sustain a move higher to support a major foray above this huge 114.5-115.00 chart area, which has topped the market action since early 2017. Meanwhile, if risk sentiment worsens further in EM and darkens the outlook for JPY carry trades there, while US treasuries remains rangebound or head lower, the JPY could squeeze higher as the speculative interest is tilted heavily short. Gold (XAUUSD) extended Friday’s drop below $1850 overnight, before bouncing ahead of key support in the $1830-35 area. The risk of a quicker withdrawal of Fed stimulus supporting real yields and the dollar has for now reduced gold's ability to build on the technical breakout. However, the price softness on Friday helped attract ETF buying with Bloomberg reporting a 10 tons increase, the biggest one-day jump since January 15. Gold’s biggest short-term threat remains the tripling of futures long held by funds during the past seven weeks to a 14-month. Most of that buying being technical driven with the risk of long liquidation now looming on a break below the mentioned support level.   Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) opened softer in Asia after Friday’s big drop but has so far managed to find support at $77.85, the previous top from July. The market focus has during the past few weeks shifted from the current tight supply to the risk of a coordinated reserve release, a renewed Covid-driven slowdown in demand and recent oil market reports from the EIA and IEA pointing to a balanced market in early 2022. Speculators who for the last six weeks have been net sellers of crude oil futures cut their combined WTI and Brent long to a three-month low in the week to November 16. Focus on SPR and Covid risks this week US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). Government bond yields worldwide dropped as new lockdown measures were imposed in Austria on Friday. Ten-year yields tumbled to 1.55%, and they are likely to continue to trade range-bound as the debt ceiling issue will continue to compress long-term yields as volatility peaks in money markets. Investors will focus on this week’s PCE index, FOMC minutes and any news regarding a change of leadership of the Federal Reserve. If Brainard is appointed as Fed chair, the market will expect low rates for longer, thus inflation expectations will advance putting upward pressure on yields. Thus, it is unavoidable to continue to see the 5s30s continue to flatten. German Bunds (IS0L). We expect European sovereigns, in general, to continue to benefit from news related to a surge of Covid cases and lack of collateral as the year ends. Yet, the perception of inflation is changing among ECB members with Isabel Schnabel last week saying that the central bank will need to be ready to act if inflation proves more durable. Therefore, as we enter in the new year, and collateral shortages will be eased, we anticipate spreads to resume their widening. What is going on? Fed Vice Chair Clarida suggests faster Fed taper - in comments on Friday, suggesting that the December FOMC meeting could speed the pace at which the Fed will reduce its asset purchases. “I’ll be looking closely at the data that we get between now and the December meeting...It may well be appropriate at that meeting to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we are reducing our asset purchases.” China’s central bank signals that it may ease policy. In a monetary policy report from Friday, the PBOC dropped language from prior reports, including phrase suggesting that the bank will maintain “normal monetary policy” and a promise not to “flood the economy with stimulus”. This comes in the wake of considerable disruption in the property sector as the government cracks down on an overleveraged property sector. Asian equities were mostly higher on the news, especially in Korea, although the Hang Seng index was slightly in the red as of this writing. Ericsson to acquire cloud provider Vonage in $6.2bn deal. This pushes the Swedish telecommunication company into the cloud communication industry seeking to add more growth to the overall business. Vonage has delivered 11% revenue growth in the past 12 months hitting $1.4bn with an operating margin of 10.4%. Global proceeds from IPOs hit $600bn in record year. This is the biggest amount since 2007 and almost 200% above the level in 2019 highlighting the excessive risk sentiment in equities. More confusing signals from Bank of England. Governor Bailey said in an interview for the Sunday Times that risks to the country are “two-sided” at the moment as growth slows and inflation rises, and that the cause of inflation problems is supply side constraints and that “monetary policy isn’t going to solve those directly.” Similarly, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday that the Bank of England said that the weight of evidence was shifting in favour of rate hikes but that he has not yet made a decision, encouraging observers to focus on the longer term rather than meeting-to-meeting decision. US shared intelligence with allies suggesting potential for Russia to invade Ukraine - according to Bloomberg sources. The intelligence noted up to 100,000 soldiers could be deployed in such a scenario, and that some half of that number are already in position.  Russian president Vladimir Putin denied Russia intends to invade, but seemed to pat himself on the back for “having gotten the attention of the US and is allies, which he accused of failing to take Russia’s ‘red lines’ over Ukraine seriously”, as the article puts it. What are we watching next? Who will US President Biden nominate to head the Fed next February? Powell is still seen as more likely to get the nod that Brainard by roughly two to one, and this Fed Chair nomination issue is hanging over the markets, as the current Fed chair term ends in early February and from comments made last week by President Biden, an announcement could come any day. One uncertainty that would come with a Brainard nomination is the potential difficulty of having her nomination approved by the Senate. The nomination news could generate significant short-term volatility on the choice of the nominally more dovish Lael Brainard over current Fed Chair Powell, though we see little difference in the medium-longer term implications for monetary policy, and the Fed is likely to get a prominent new regulatory role either way (under Brainard or someone else if she is nominated to replace Powell). Will Germany announce a Covid lockdown? - Friday saw some volatility on Austria’s announcement of a full Covid lockdown, with Germany’s health minister saying that a similar move in Germany could not be ruled out. Later that day, that was contradicted by comments from another minister. Meanwhile, resistance against Covid restrictions has turned violent in Netherlands. Earnings Watch – the number of important earnings is falling rapidly, but this week Tuesday is the most important day with key earnings from Xiaomi, XPeng and Kuaishou, both important Chinese technology companies. Also on Tuesday, US companies such as Medtronic, Autodesk and Dell Technologies are worth watching. Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Prosus, Zoom Video, Agilent Technologies Tuesday: Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, Compass Group, Medtronic, Analog Devices, Autodesk, VMWare, Dell Technologies, XPeng, HP, Best Buy, Dollar Tree Wednesday: Deere, Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 - Switzerland SNB weekly sight deposit data1330 – US Chicago Fed Oct. National Activity Index1500 – US Oct. Existing Home Sales1730 – ECB's Guindos to speak2145 – New Zealand Q3 Retail Sales2200 – Australia Nov. Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI0105 – Australia RBA’s Kohler to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
The unbearable sensitivity to rising yields

The unbearable sensitivity to rising yields

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.11.2021 10:51
Summary:  Today we try to quantify and illustrate the equity markets most sensitive to rises in long yields, i.e., duration sensitivity, noting particularly chunky declines in the most duration sensitive markets yesterday. As well, a look at the "buy the fact" reaction to the US release of strategic oil reserves, key FX stories, including the RBNZ proving less hawkish than the market hoped and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
COT Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Coffee, Mexican Peso & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

COT Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Coffee, Mexican Peso & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

Invest Macro Invest Macro 24.11.2021 08:11
November 23, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 16th 2021. This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top 5 Most Bullish and Top 5 Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market. To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table) Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes: Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels. These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.   Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions: Brent Oil The Brent Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brent speculator level is currently at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position totaled -12,900 net contracts this week which was a change by -1,049 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 45,201 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 58,101 contracts. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   Coffee Futures The Coffee Futures speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 66,081 net contracts this week, a change by 5,261 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 79,550 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,469 contracts. New Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The NZD speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 13,965 net contracts this week which marked a change by 1,083 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 26,388 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 12,423 contracts. 2-Year Bond The 2-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -5,445 net contracts this week and changed by 11,292 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 345,245 contracts against the total spec short position of 350,690 contracts. US Treasury Bond The US Treasury Bond speculator trader’s futures position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -16,368 net contracts this week which was a move of 11,704 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 144,973 contracts in comparison to the total speculator short position of 161,341 contracts. This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions: Mexican Peso The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MXN speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -47,655 net contracts this week, a weekly change of 752 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 69,984 contracts versus the total spec short position of 117,639 contracts. Palladium The Palladium speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -2,038 net contracts this week which was a change by 916 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 3,108 contracts compared to the total speculator short position of 5,146 contracts. Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The JPY speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -93,126 net contracts this week saw movement by 12,225 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 24,635 contracts against the total spec short position of 117,761 contracts. Nikkei 225 Yen The Nikkei 225 Yen (Japanese stock market) speculator trader’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level is at a 11 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -4,195 net contracts this week which was a change by -3,892 contracts on the week. The speculator long position was a total of 9,075 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,270 contracts. 5-Year Bond Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 20 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -344,595 net contracts this week and changed by 62,890 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 300,750 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 645,345 contracts. Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
FX Update: USD remains firm, RBNZ taps brakes on expectations

FX Update: USD remains firm, RBNZ taps brakes on expectations

John Hardy John Hardy 24.11.2021 13:44
Summary:  The US dollar remains firm after the news of Fed Chair Powell getting the nod for a second term on Monday, but a more aggressive extension of its recent strength is avoided as US yield rises were tempered yesterday. Elsewhere, a less hawkish than expected RBNZ saw the kiwi sharply weaker as the market removed a chunky bit of forward rate hike expectation on the latest guidance. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term The US dollar strengthening in the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he would tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair extended modestly yesterday and into this morning, somewhat tempered by a strong US 7-year treasury auction taking the steam out rises in yields yesterday – with the 7-year benchmark actually notching new highs for the cycle before retreating in the wake of the auction. The more widely tracked 10-year US treasury yield benchmark is still rangebound below the October pivot high of 1.7% and the post-pandemic outbreak high of 1.75%  from the end of March. This has kept USDJPY from extending notably above the sticky 115.00 area of the moment. Elsewhere, the euro remains relatively weak despite ECB Vice President de Guindos out speaking and hinting some concern on inflation rises: “the ECB is continuously pointingout that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” But just this morning we also have the ECB’s Holzmann out saying that inflation is likely to slow from next year. Later today we will get the expected German government coalition deal (SPD’s Scholz as Chancellor with Green’s Baerbock reportedly set for the foreign minister post and importantly, the liberal LDP’s Lindner set to lead the finance ministry), with a press conference set for 3 p.m. EURJPY and EURUSD are heavy this morning and note that  the 128.00 level in EURJPY is a well-defined range low, while EURUSD doesn’t have notable  support until well below 1.1200 and arguably not until psychological levels like 1.10. With covid spiking and a galloping energy crisis, I don’t envy the new German leadership. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand waxed a bit more cautious than was expected by the market, and not only by raising the rates 25 basis points rather than the 50 basis points that a minority were expecting to see. In the central bank’s new statement, the bank strikes a more cautious tone: yes, clearly further rate hikes are set for coming meetings, but the bank is clearly in a wait and see mode, given the tightening of financial conditions already in the bag and that which the market has already priced in: “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to householdsandbusinesses had already tightened monetary conditions. High levels of household debt, and a large share of fixed-rate mortgages re-pricing in coming months, could increase the sensitivity of consumer spending to these interest rate increases.” Later today, we have a stack of US data releases crammed into today because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow (and for most, Friday as well). The most important of these is the October PCE Infation data print. Not expecting much from the FOMC minutes later as all eyes are on whether we are set for an acceleration of the QE taper at the December FOMC meeting, with some arguing that Powell and company have more room to move and administer a bit more hawkish message, if they so desire, as the nomination news is out of the way and this reduces hyper-sensitivity to bringing any message that could risk cratering market sentiment. Chart: AUDNZDThe 2-year yield spread between Australia and New Zealand has risen sharply in recent days and especially overnight, where the more cautious than expected tones from the RBNZ inspired a 14 basis point drop in 2-year NZ yields. The price action in AUDNZD was sympathetic with the rally back toward local resistance near 1.0450, though the rally needs to find legs for a move up to 1.0600 at least to indicate we may have put a structural low in with a double bottom here. A brighter relative outlook for  Australia could be in the cards if China is set to stimulate and raise steel output, the anticipation of which has already sharply lifted iron ore prices this week, a key indicator for the Aussie. No notable expectations for the Riksbank tomorrow – as the central bank is expected to wind down its balance sheet expansion next year, while the policy forecast is thought to be in play (perhaps a late 2024 lift-off built into expectations, though the market is ahead of that as 2-year Swedish swap rates have risen close to 30 basis in recent weeks. This is the area where the Riksbank can surprise in either direction relative to expectations). The EURSEK rally has now reversed the entirety of the prior sell-off leg and double underlines the very weak sentiment on Europe, which remains “non-existential” in nature, i.e., so far the market is keeping this about policy divergence and dark clouds over the economic outlook, not about the longer term viability of the EMU, etc…, which in the past 2010-12 crisis inspired SEK upside as a safe haven. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthA bit of a relative pick-up in petro-currencies in the wake of yesterday’s oil rally, as the market bought the fact of US President Biden announcing a release of barrels from strategic reserves. Elsewhere, the NZD is losing relative altitude and the USD and especially CNH reign supreme. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Here, note AUDNZD flipping back to positive - a move that would be “confirmed” by a close solidly above 1.0450. Also note NOKSEK trying to flip positive on the latest oil rally, although beware the Riksbank meeting up tomorrow there. .Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Waking Up the Giants

Waking Up the Giants

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.11.2021 16:03
S&P 500 recovered from session lows, and is likely to keep chopping around in a tight range today. Tech found solid footing in spite of sharply rising yields, which value (finally) embraced with open arms. The riskier end of credit markets doesn‘t yet reflect the stabilization in stocks, which is a first swallow. Make no mistake though, the fresh Fed hawkish talking games are a formidable headwind, and animal spirits aren‘t there no matter how well financials or energy perform. These are though clearly positive signs, which I would like to see confirmed by quite an upswing in smallcaps. All in all, this is still the time to be cautiously optimistic, and not yet heading for the bunker – that time would probably come after the winter Olympics (isn‘t it nice how that rhymes with the post 2008 summer ones‘ price action too?). Market reaction to today‘s preliminary GDP data will likely be a non-event, and we‘ll still probably make fresh ATHs before stocks enter more turbulent times. In spite of the cheap Fed talk still packing quite some punch, let‘s keep focused on the big picture and my doubts as to the Fed‘s ability to carry out the taper, let alone (proactive? No, very much behind the curve) rate raising plans – as said the prior Monday or yesterday: (…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022. (…) True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation. Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018. Inflation expectation indeed held up during the day, marking modest, lingering doubts about Fed‘s ability to execute. Its credibility isn‘t lost, but would be put to a fresh test over the nearest weeks and months. The real economy can still take it, and not roll over – we are in the very early tapering stage so far still. Commodities are pointing the way ahead, and it‘s time for precious metals to shake off the inordinately high levels of fear, which mark capitulation more than anything else. Just when I was writing that it‘s as if the PMs bulls didn‘t trust the latest rally... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls stepped in, the volume is semicredible. I like the lower knot, and would look for increasing market breadth to confirm the short-term reversal. It‘s my view we haven‘t made a major top on Monday. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to pull its weight better. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t yet regained footing, but that moment is quickly approaching – in spite of the above bleak chart. Compare to the Jun period – Fed‘s talk was more powerful then. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength did indeed follow. The bottom is in, and many countries tapping their strategic reserves, proved an infallible signal. I look for consolidation followed by further strength next. Copper Copper springboard is getting almost complete, and I think the drying up volume would be resolved with an upswing. The daily indicators are positioned as favorably as the CRB Index is. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still correcting, and the upcoming Bitcoin move would decide the direction over the next few weeks. The takeaway from cryptos hesitation is that real assets can‘t expect overly smooth sailing yet. Summary S&P 500 bulls would ideally look to value outperforming tech on the upside, confirmed by HYG at least stopping plunging. A brief yields reprieve would come once the Fed steps away from the spotlight, which is another part of the bullish sentiment returning precondition set. Overall, the very modest S&P 500 moves keep favoring the bulls within the larger topping process. Keep in mind that the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks, it‘s just the forward guidance mind games for now. We are waiting for the bit more seriously than last time meant, but still a bluff, getting questioned again, as inflation expectations haven‘t broken down, and are facilitating the coming PMs and commodities runs. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Why Consider Dividend Growth Investing?

Why Consider Dividend Growth Investing?

Dividend Power Dividend Power 22.11.2021 08:31
Why Consider Dividend Growth Investing? Dividend growth investing is increasingly popular in the US and worldwide. The concept is simple and easy to understand. An investor buys a basket of stocks that annually increases the dividend. This strategy is a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. In contrast, it is the opposite of a trading strategy where an investor rapidly buys and sells stocks. Some investors think of dividend stocks as something that only retirees buy for income. However, some of the largest tech companies pay dividends, including Apple (APPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). Hence, investors can buy growth stocks that also pay a growing dividend. Why Dividends? Do dividends matter to investors? The short answer is yes for a few reasons. First, over time, stocks that pay dividends tend to outperform ones that don't pay dividends with lower volatility as measured by beta. The difference in total return is even more significant for comparing stocks that pay growing dividends and stocks that don’t pay dividends. Furthermore, research has shown that dividend and dividend growth stocks significantly outperform stocks that cut or eliminate dividends. The reason for this is that companies that cut or eliminate dividends are often performing poorly. In some cases, this poor performance is due to changing economic conditions. For instance, energy companies performed poorly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lower revenue and earnings caused many energy companies to stop paying a dividend. However, in many cases, it is because the company is facing increasing competition or changing technology. For example, Kodak's core technology was film, and digital cameras and smartphones made film obsolete. Another reason why dividends matter is dividends can be used to determine valuation. An estimate of a fair value can be calculated using the dividend per share and the expected constant growth rate. Dividends also indicate if the company is doing poorly or well since cash must be used to pay the dividend. Research has also shown that dividend stocks perform better than non-dividend-paying stocks in down markets. Types of Companies Not all companies pay a dividend or a growing dividend. In the US, there are over 6,000 stocks listed on stock market exchanges. Of these, more than 3,500 pay a dividend, and only about several hundred pay a growing dividend for 5+ years. The fact points to the difficulty a company has for growing the dividend over a more extended period. There are lists of companies that pay a dividend for extended periods. One group of stocks that are well known as dividend growth stocks are the Dividend Aristocrats. The stocks on this list have raised the dividend for 25+ years. In addition, the stocks must meet other criteria, including being a member of the S&P 500 Index and having a market capitalization of $3 billion or more. Currently, there are 65 stocks on the Dividend Aristocrats list. Investors can buy the individual stocks or buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that owns the entire list. A Top Dividend King Today An even more exclusive club of dividend growth stocks is the Dividend Kings 2021 list. These are stocks that have paid a growing dividend for 50+ years. There are only 32 stocks on this list. It is challenging for a company to raise the dividend for 50 or more years. Typically, a company must have a substantial competitive advantage to overcome economic cycles and competition. One top Dividend King today is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). The company is a global healthcare company with three primary business segments: Consumer Health, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices. Most investors know the company through its consumer health business. Major brands include Band-Aid, Neosporin, Tylenol, Zyrtec, Sudafed, Motrin, Benadryl, Pepcid, Listerine, Aveeno, Neutrogena, Stayfree, Carefree, o.b., and Clean & Clear. However, Johnson & Johnson's other two segments are much larger. For example, some of the drugs that Johnson & Johnson sells are blockbusters, with over $1 billion annually in sales. Johnson & Johnson’s stock price is relatively flat for the year, with a gain of ~3.5% year-to-date. However, results impacted by COVID-19 have pressured the stock price. In addition, Johnson & Johnson is faced with lawsuit risks from opioids and talcum powder that are also pressuring the stock price. The current quarterly dividend rate is $1.06 per share for an annual rate of $4.24 per share. The forward dividend yield is about 2.6%. The company’s dividend is relatively safe. The forward payout ratio is approximately 43%, a good value. Furthermore, Johnson & Johnson is one of two triple-AAA-rated companies from credit agencies. For this reason, Johnson & Johnson is often considered one of the best dividend growth stocks. Johnson & Johnson recently announced that it would split into two companies. The Consumer Health business will be divested, leaving the Pharmaceutical and Medical Device business. Johnson & Johnson will continue to grow organically through R&D and approvals for new medications and indications. The company will also probably buy smaller companies adding to its growing portfolio of products. Market Capitalization: $428.82 billion Stock Price: $162.89 Dividend Yield: 2.6% Payout Ratio: 43.3% Summary Dividend growth stocks should be considered by all investors, not just those in retirement. The reason is that they can provide excellent long-term returns with lower volatility. There are hundreds of stocks to pick from using this investment strategy, including many well-known ones. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 3% out of over 8,116 financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 
Danish equities are feeling the heat from interest rates

Danish equities are feeling the heat from interest rates

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 24.11.2021 14:14
Equities 2021-11-24 13:00 6 minutes to read Summary:  The last two trading days US technology stocks have been impacted by rising interest rates and rising market expectations of Fed rate hikes next year. US technology stocks have interest rate sensitivity due to their high equity valuation, but several other key equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, and Denmark are also having high equity valuation and thus high duration. These equity markets would likely underperform next year if the interest rates move considerably higher. In yesterday’s equity note, we showed how Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 are the yin and yang of interest rate sensitivity based on equity market reaction this year with Nasdaq 100 underperforming significantly when the US 10-year yield has a large increase. But outside these two major equity indices, investors felt what higher interest rates can do to sentiment. Danish equities were down 3% in its worst day since March 2020 during the panic days of the pandemic and Dutch equities were down 3.1%. What do these two markets have in common? They both have equity valuations that are well above many other markets, which simplistically can be translated into higher duration which means that these equity markets are more sensitive to big changes in interest rates. Why is that? Because high equity valuation implies that a larger part of the present value comes from the terminal value on cash flows (meaning way into the future) and this value is more sensitive to the discount rate. Dutch equities are the most expensive of 26 equity markets in the developed and emerging markets with a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 23.3x with Denmark and Switzerland less frothy at 14.3x and 14.7x respectively. If we exclude Australia, India, New Zealand and Singapore from yesterday’s market reaction because of the time delay to the US session then we do observe that equity markets with high equity valuations were hit harder yesterday confirming that we did observe a repricing related to a larger move in interest rates. It is all related to the value vs growth trade which is essentially STOXX 600 vs Nasdaq 100, but which can also be expressed between individual equity indices such as Norway vs Denmark. The main point of yesterday’s equity note and today’s observations is that we have a group of equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, USA, Switzerland, and Denmark that are in the high equity valuation group. These markets have higher interest rate sensitivity and would likely underperform in a rising interest rate environment and exacerbated if flows also favour value over growth. In our view the equity market is telling investors that tail risks are rising for high duration equities and in order to mitigate this investors should begin balancing their portfolios better between high valued growth stocks and value stocks such as energy, financials, and mining companies. Appendix: 5-year charts of OMXC25 (Danish equities) and AEX (Dutch equities)
Black Friday can squeeze supply chains and challenge Christmas

Black Friday can squeeze supply chains and challenge Christmas

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 08:31
Thought Starters 2021-11-24 14:00 Summary:  Black Friday is upon us and with the current pressure on supply chains the shopping frenzy may make it difficult for Christmas presents to reach stores in time for the Holidays. ‘Tis the season for shopping. While Thanksgiving still is primarily a tradition for Americans and people who are into American football, the Friday after, Black Friday, has become a global phenomenon, where shops across the globe make offers that can’t be refused.But, on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic, the act of getting goods from factories to shops, which is a task that’s previously been taken for granted, has become increasingly difficult.“Containers are generally shipped from the big ports in China to the big ports in Europe and on the US East and West Coast. The frequency with which this has happened has been challenged by a strong global economic recovery creating a strong demand for goods around the world. Simultaneously, we’ve all become accustomed to the fact that when we order something online, we get it delivered within a few days. That has broken down and we have to be much more patient now,“ says Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities at Saxo.In the picture below it can be seen that the amount of cargo being off-loaded and loaded in a port like Hong-Kong has fallen roughly 25 pct. on average from 2020 to 2021. This serves as an example of what Hansen describes above, i.e., that there are bottlenecks in the global supply chains, which make it harder for goods to go from one place to another and thus delivery takes longer. The picture also shows the massive price increase on shipping containers, which has almost tripled from 2020 to 2021. This indicates the imbalance between the “supply of logistics” relative to the demand of it. In other words, as a company it’s harder to get your goods in a container and on a containership and therefore get it to where it’s being sold. Therefore, you are willing to pay more for those containers. So where does that leave all the Black Friday shoppers?“Black Friday is going to happen even though I'm sure there's still a lot of stuff at harbours around the world, which is not going to reach the shops in time. But we have noticed something interesting; last month, the retail sales in the US surprised positively and it could potentially be consumers worrying that there won't be enough goods available when we get close to Christmas, so they're already stocking up on some of the goods they need to already now. Based on that it’s fair to assume we will have enough goods for Black Friday but Christmas is another matter,” says Hansen.What does this mean for investors?From an investor point of view, this is something to take note of, as it can have an impact on equities in both the logistics sector, as well as the e-commerce and consumer goods sectors. However, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo, Peter Garnry, notes that with the right investment strategy, it shouldn’t be seen as a fundamental crisis: “There's always something we can worry about in the equity markets, but, as I tell the young people here at Saxo, who wants to listen to me: it pays off to be an optimist. I think you have to be an optimist about the world and these things will solve themselves. And if you stay true to being long-term in your investments and you remember to diversify your portfolio, then I think you’re off to a good start,” he says. If you want to have a look at some of the global logistics stocks and read more about the sector and its risks, you can invest in and get exposure towards these challenges, have a look at Garnry’s Logistics theme basket here (will open in a new window and require log-in to Saxo). If you instead want to have a look at his E-commerce basket, which is also affected by the supply chain issues, and read about its construction and risks, then take a look here (will open in a new window and require log-in to Saxo).
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 24, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.11.2021 09:53
Macro 2021-11-24 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  US equity markets bounced back from an extension of the sell-off from the highs of Monday, perhaps in part as a firm US 7-year treasury auction saw yields settling back lower, just after that particular benchmark had notched a new high yield for the cycle. Today sees a flurry of US data and the FOMC Minutes all crammed into the last day before the long Thanksgiving weekend in the US, where markets are closed tomorrow and only open for short session on Friday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - Nasdaq 100 recovered from steep losses late in yesterday’s session which has extended this morning on a positive session in Asia driven by improved sentiment in Chinese equities on good earnings releases. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading 1.4% higher than yesterday’s lows. The key thing to monitor is still the US 10-year yield and the USD for clues of where US equities are going. If Nasdaq 100 futures can extend their momentum today the 16,443 level is the natural gravitational point in this market sitting at the 50% retracement level over the past three trading sessions. USDJPY – The  USDJPY outlook is predominantly a question of “will it or won’t it sustain a break above 115.00?” And the answer to that question is likely coincident with whether long US treasury yields will rise above the 1.75% highs established earlier this year. After a strong 7-year US treasury auction yesterday, US longer yields dipped from session highs, drawing out the suspense on USDJPY direction here. AUDNZD – after the RBNZ meeting proved far less hawkish than the market has priced, it feels as if it will be difficult for the momentum in higher RBNZ rate expectations to return as the bank likely waxed a bit cautious overnight (more below) to give itself more time to assess how quickly the tightening in the bag and a few more planned hikes already priced in are affecting the NZ economy. In Australia, meanwhile, the economy is emerging from lockdowns and rate expectations could close the gap, with an additional possible source of support from China, where stimulus may be on the way, and where the anticipation of a rise in steel output has sharply boosted iron ore prices (Australia’s largest export). AUDNZD may have bottomed out now and we watch for whether this sharply rally off the bottom could have legs for at least 1.0600 as AU vs. NZ yield spreads mean revert. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after finding support ahead of $1781. The slump this week below  $1835 area was triggered by rising Treasury yields following the renomination of Jerome Powell as Fed chair. The oversized downside reaction, however, was caused by long liquidation from hedge funds who had been rushing into gold before and after the recent CPI shock. Gold’s short-term ability to bounce will mostly depend on whether the washout has triggered a big enough reduction of recently established and now loss-making positions. A sharp drop in open interest in COMEX gold futures and two days with double the normal trading volume could indicate most of the adjustments have now been executed. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) jumped the most in two weeks yesterday after a US initiated release of strategic reserves underwhelmed in its size and details. Most of the oil being offered to refineries will have to be returned at a later date while international contributions were smaller than expected. Refineries are already processing crude near the seasonal pace so the market doubt how much extra oil they may need. Also, and more important, the OPEC+ alliance called the move unjustified given current conditions and as a result they may opt to reduce future production hikes, currently running near 12 million barrels per month. Ahead of today’s EIA stock report, the API last night reported a 2.3 million barrel increase with stockpiles at Cushing also rising US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). At the beginning of the day, the yield curve bear flattened with 7-year yields breaking above 1.55% before the 7-year auction. It led many to believe that it could be a catastrophic bond sale as demand for Monday’s 2-year and 5-year Treasuries was weak. Surprisingly, bidding metrics were strong with the bid-to-cover ratio being the highest since September 2020, and the yield stopping through by 1bps at 1.588%. Following the auction, the yield curve steepened slightly amid lower breakeven rates and less aggressive rate hikes for 2022. We expect the bond market to continue to be volatile as the market adjusts expectations for rate hikes next year. Yet, the long part of the yield curve is likely to remain in check until a resolution to the debt ceiling is not found. Todays’ Personal Consumption Expenditures might revive inflation fears reversing gains in the Asia trading session. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds sold off for the second day in a row as German and French PMI beat expectations, hinting at the inevitable end of the PEPP program. To weaken sentiment in BTPS was also news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to get that position to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi is leading the government will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? EU gas prices surged back above $30/MMBtu (€90/GWh) yesterday in response to rising winter demand, low power production from wind farms and increased competition from Asia which is ramping up its LNG imports. The US imposing additional sanctions aimed at Russia’s Nord Strem 2 pipeline also received some unwelcome attention. Sky-high day ahead prices for power adding to the pain with some countries approaching record highs. Power plants are burning more coal which is cheaper and more profitable and it has helped drive the emissions future (CFIZ1) to a new all-time high this week above €70 per tons. RBNZ hikes only 25 basis points, statement somewhat cautious. The majority of market participants were looking for a 25-basis point hike from the RNBZ overnight, but enough were looking for 50 bps that the 0.25% hike to take the official cash rate to 0.75%  rate triggered a sell-off in the kiwi. But it was the guidance that was a bit more of a surprise than the rate move, as the RBNZ noted that, while further rate rises would be needed, “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to households and businesses had already tightened monetary conditions.” The 2-year NZGB yield dropped 14 basis points overnight to 1.94% as the market lowered rate hike expectations out the curve. Turkish lira descent accelerates – yesterday was a wild day for the TRY, which fell almost 20% in a single day yesterday before stabilizing slightly, on fresh rhetoric from Turkish president Erdogan, who complimented the recent Turkish Central Bank decision to cut rates again and who continues to use belligerent rhetoric against the standard EM playbook for dealing with a devaluing currency (vicious belt tightening via rate hikes, etc.). Chinese equities are rebounding on good earnings releases. Yesterday’s earnings releases from Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, and XPeng  have lifted sentiment in Chinese equities. Kuaishou was a positive surprise given the technology crackdown in China and XPeng overtook NIO in Q3 on EV deliveries showing that the company can ramp up production. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says inflation drivers are becoming more structural. In a speech yesterday in Madrid, the central banker said that “the ECB is continuously pointing out that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” Euribor futures far out into 2024 and 2025 are several ticks lower from recent highs, but also up a few ticks from yesterday’s lows, as the market is only pricing for the ECB to move back to 0% rates by around the beginning of 2025. What are we watching next? Busy US Economic Calendar ahead of long holiday weekend - the majority of US office workers take a long weekend that includes Thanksgiving Day tomorrow and the Friday as well, with a lot of the data that normally would have been spread out over the rest of the week all piled up into a heap in early US hours today. The key number to watch today is the October PCE Inflation numbers, where the headline “PCE Deflator” and “PCE Core Deflator” are expected to show year-on-year readings of 5.1%/4.1% respectively vs. 4.4%/3.6% in September, which would mean the hottest pace of inflation since the early 1990’s. Much later in the day we have the FOMC minutes from the November 3 meeting, which should be interesting for whether the debate on whether the Fed needs to tighten policy more quickly is becoming more heated. Earnings Watch – the rest of the week in terms of earnings will be quite light with today’s focus on Deere which sells equipment to the agricultural sector and thus is a good indicator on this sector. Wednesday: Deere Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Nov. IFO Survey 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Product Inventory Report 1700 – EIA’s Natural Gas Storage Change 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
The Euro's oversold is a sign for more volatility to come

The Euro's oversold is a sign for more volatility to come

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.11.2021 08:32
The Euro fell against the dollar to 1.1200, a new 16-month low, having lost more than 4% in the last four weeks. The downward trend in the single currency accelerated in November on the divergence between Fed and ECB policies. And the latest news on business activity from Europe reinforces this divergence by feeding the bears in a single currency. The recovery in Europe appears to have peaked in May and June, after which business sentiment indicators are methodically falling. The latest data from Germany's Ifo marked the fifth consecutive month of deteriorating business conditions, driven by logistical problems, the energy crisis in Europe and a rise in coronavirus cases, followed by stricter lockdown measures. Technically, on the weekly candlestick charts, the EURUSD is oversold as last seen in 2015. Often this is a precursor for some recovery. However, historically for EURUSD, this oversold signal means we may see a further acceleration of the downside and increased volatility ahead. In 2014, 2010, 2008 and 1996, the dip of the RSI below 30 on the weekly charts followed the acceleration collapse, sometimes taking almost a free fall form. In those cases, the signal for a reversal was a rebound of the indicator above the oversold level (i.e. higher than 30), signalling the end of the sell-off in the Euro. It can take a long time between these points, e.g., in 2014-2015, it took more than half a year for the EURUSD exchange rate to collapse by 18%. The multi-year and repeatedly tested EURUSD support level is located around 1.07, and that is where the Euro could end up in the next six months. This will be especially true if economic growth in the Eurozone slows down while bond yields rise. These are conditions we are currently experiencing.
Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term

Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 24.11.2021 16:49
The market is struggling with further downward pressure, triggered by a stronger US dollar, and threats that the US and others will start using their strategic oil reserves. Trade Plan Review Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Saturday (Nov 20th) that his government was considering drawing on oil reserves in response to rising crude prices. Since Japan sources most of its oil from the Middle East, the recent surge in prices and the decline of the yen have pushed up import cost for the Japanese archipelago. As a reminder, last week I anticipated a lower dip that would take place onto the $75.25-76.22 yellow band. The recommended objective would be the $79.37 and 82.24 levels. My suggested stop would be located on the $74.42 level (below both the previous swing low from 7-October and the previous high-volume node and volume point of control (VPOC) from September). Alternatively, you could also eventually use an Average True Range (ATR) ratio to determine a different level that may suit you better. For now, that dip did happen Friday around that support area (likely to become a demand zone) where we might see some ongoing accumulation for the forthcoming hours. Now, we can observe a doji formation (candlestick figure), and more precisely a long-legged doji appearing on the daily chart, which is generally synonymous with indecision. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) To visualize how the price action is currently developing, let’s zoom into the 4H chart, which illustrates a much clearer downtrend: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) So, as you can see, even on that lower timeframe we have a doji pattern, where the bulls are trying to take over the bears to push the market towards higher levels. Will the current 4H downtrend extend lower, or will the longer-term (daily) uptrend resume its rally? Let’s see where this is going to end up. Here is the latest chart from today (Nov 24th): Figure 1 - WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, monthly chart) By the way, my trade target for WTI Crude Oil positions has almost been reached. Please check out more details on my latest oil targets in Monday’s article. That’s all for today, folks. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
November: Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Just Around the Corner?

November: Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Just Around the Corner?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 24.11.2021 15:18
  As expected, after the applauded increase, gold fell. But will it manage to bounce off the bottom or rather slide lower? Today’s analysis is going to be all about gold, and for a good reason. Based on yesterday’s and Monday’s sessions, November is now a down month for gold. Please let that sink in. Gold ended last week above $1,850, with almost everyone in the market cheering and making bets, on how soon gold will move above $1,900 and then rally to new yearly highs. It was after the completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, after all! Well, I warned you that there were more long-term-based factors in place than the above-mentioned inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and since longer-term patterns are more important than the shorter-term-based ones, the outlook was bearish, not bullish. In fact, it was the very short-term rally that made the outlook bearish, because of three separate time-based indications for a reversal. And I don’t even mean other bearish indications like gold’s invalidation of the small breakout above the declining red resistance line. Two of the indications that I described previously were the triangle-vertex-based reversals based on the below chart. When resistance and support lines cross, markets tend to reverse their previous course. There’s no good logical explanation for why it should work, but it does. Not in every case, and I’m not promising that it will work in all cases, but I’ve seen it work so many times in the precious metals market so that I can say that ignoring these indications is a very costly endeavor. Another indication came from gold’s long-term chart – its cyclical turning point was pointing to a major reversal, and the preceding move was up. Consequently, gold was likely to top. And that’s exactly what it did. Gold moved lower this week and taking into account the weekly high to yesterday’s closing price, it declined by over $100. Not bad for just two days. But perhaps the most interesting things are now visible on gold’s monthly chart (based on monthly candlesticks). The above chart is loaded with clues. Let’s start with the similarity between now and 2013 that we see from this perspective. The consolidation is similar not only in terms of the shape of the price move but also in terms of the decline in long-term volatility. The upper part of the above chart represents the width of the Bollinger Bands – a tool that is based on the volatility of the market. In short, greater volatility means broader Bands, meaning the above indicator would move higher. So, it’s essentially a proxy for volatility. Since we’re using monthly candlesticks here, it’s a proxy for long-term volatility. Please note that the BB width not only moved from similar levels in 2011 and 2020 to similar levels in late-2012 and now, but it took approximately the same time to get there (if we start both moves with the final monthly high). Like a Decade Ago? The interesting thing about long-term volatility is that periods of low volatility tend to be followed by periods of high volatility – in either way. I marked four previous cases when we saw very low volatility after gold’s several-year-long rally, and it was indeed very close to the start of big moves. One of those cases was the late-2012 case, which appears similar to what we see right now. Consequently, gold is likely to move quite significantly in the following months. If the similarity to 2013 continues, gold would be likely to decline just as the blue dashed line suggests. This implies a move below $1,300. Will gold indeed decline to that low? I doubt it, as there’s very strong support a bit below $1,400. It’s based on the previous highs and the rising support line based on the 2015 and 2018 lows. The decline to those levels would have been enough of a reaction that was likely to follow the failed 2020 breakout above the 2011 highs. Invalidations of breakouts are strong “sell” signals, and invalidation of a breakout that was extremely important (as well as a breakout to a new all-time high), is likely to have very dire consequences. Summing up, gold declined in tune with my long-term-based indications and the medium-term downtrend appears to have resumed. Based on the analogy to 2013 and other factors, a bigger decline in gold appears to be just around the corner (regardless of what happens in the very near term). Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly

Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.11.2021 10:49
Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. That call could not have been more accurate with a low for the day at 4240/30. A potential profit of up to 100 ticks. FTSE 100 December broke minor support at 7260/40 but held 18 ticks above the buying opportunity at 7170/50 Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax longs at strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly on the bounce with resistance at 15950/16000 for some profit taking. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. Minor support at 15880/860. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to strong support at 4240/30 with a low for the day here so longs also worked perfectly on the bounce to 4300/10. This is the only resistance of the day. Shorts need stops above 4320. A break higher targets 4340/50. Holding resistance at 4300/10 targets 4280/70 before a retest of strong support at 4240/30. Longs need stops below 4220. A break lower is a sell signal. FTSE shot higher to the 7300/10 target as I write this morning, perhaps as far as 7335/40 later on today, before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support again at 7260/40 before a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions, although my first support at 4670/68 was not accurate because we over ran again to 4656. Nasdaq December longs at best support for the day at 16230/180 worked as we held above 16100 for a bounce to first resistance again at 16400/450. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P seeing a recovery as expected reaching very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. I am still expecting the downside to be limited with first support at 4670/60 . Longs need stops below 4650. Next target & better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Nasdaq December up to 200 ticks profit on our longs as we hit first resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Best support for today at 16200/160. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to first resistance at 35850/950 for an easy 400 tick profit. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Minor support at 35750/700 but below here targets 35600. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
The Turkish Lira rebound, but hardly for long

The Turkish Lira rebound, but hardly for long

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.11.2021 13:55
The Turkish Lira added 10% against the dollar and Euro from lows at the start of Wednesday. At the beginning of trading on Thursday, there was also a relative calm in the exchange rate performance. However, an important question to be answered in the coming days is how temporary this calm will be. The fundamentals for the Turkish currency are unchanged: The Turkish central bank and the President continue to argue about the benefits of low-interest rates for the economy and benefits of competitiveness through a weaker currency. But it should not be forgotten that these factors only have a positive effect when the currency has stabilised, and the financial markets have a point of reference. Right now, the economy is suffering a severe shock from a 40% devaluation of the Lira against the USD so far this month to yesterday low. Even worse, such rate hikes are shaping expectations for further depreciation and further spurring sales of the Lira. Retailers and manufacturers in such circumstances prefer to fix prices of goods in harder currencies, which causes a shock freeze in economic activity. The example of Apple’s retail shops being closed because of the Lira’s devaluation is striking but hardly the only one. What we are likely seeing today, and perhaps for the next couple of days, is just a brief moment of stabilisation before a new wave of pressure on the Lira, which could continue right up to the policy changes. Whether it will be capital controls or rate hikes is an open question, but for sure, the answer won’t be easy.
Meta (FB) Has Some Things To Worry About, Amazon (AMZN) And Ford (F) Ahead Of Publishing Their Reports

Podcast Special Edition with Brent Donnelly of Spectramarkets

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 15:04
Podcast 2021-11-25 14:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  This special episode features a conversation on all things trading with Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and writer. Brent has more than 25 years of experience trading currencies and other assets with major international investment banks and hedge funds. Brent is a gifted writer who pens daily market thoughts on FX and macro with spectramarkets.com, peppered with insightful comments on market movements and ideas for what may happen next. His two books offer traders of all levels a roadmap for what successful trading looks like, never shying from describing the hard work that is necessary on all levels, from trader mindset, behavior and money management, to the fundamental and technical expertise. Listen to our podcast special edition Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 26, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.11.2021 09:25
Macro 2021-11-26 08:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Fears linked to a new and different covid variant discovered in South Africa helped send a wave of caution over global markets overnight. Stocks in Asia and the US slumped, Treasuries rallied while the dollar traded near a 16-month high. Crude oil shed 3% and gold rose with the detection of the new covid strain. US markets will have a shortened session today as many are still away for the holiday, aggravating liquidity concerns ahead of the weekend. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equity futures shot lower from the moment they opened overnight on the new Covid variant news, a jolting development after Wednesday’s pre-Thanksgiving holiday closed seemed to show risk sentiment trying to make a stand after some early last week, and perhaps in part in anticipation of the traditionally strong seasonal run into the winter holidays in late December. Given poor liquidity today in the US as many are away from their desks for a long holiday weekend and the market is only for a half session, any significant flows by traders looking to reduce risk could mean significant volatility. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - the main European equity futures contract is down 3.2% on the news of a new more infectious Covid strain as it increases the probability of new lockdowns to safeguard hospitals. We observe the pandemic playbook in equities with technology and online companies falling less than physical companies such as miners, energy, and retailers. Stoxx 50 futures have broken below the 50% retracement level measured on the recent runup since early October. The next critical support levels are at 4,125 and 4,058. As this is a Friday, the liquidity situation could be significantly worsened and exacerbate intraday moves. USDJPY and JPY crosses – The huge shift in market mood overnight saw risk aversion sweeping across global markets driving US treasuries back higher and US yields lower, and triggering a huge jolt of JPY buying, as the JPY trading up against all of its G10 peers. USDJPY is well back below the 115.00 level that was broken overnight and the classic “risk proxy” AUDJPY was blasted for steep losses, with GPJPY also in particularly steep retreat. Another pair worth watching is EURJPY, where there is a well-defined range low near 128.00. Further risk aversion and falling yields could support a significant extension of the JPY rally if we are seeing a sustained change of mood here. Gold (XAUUSD) traded higher overnight as renewed Covid fears spread to financial markets with US Treasuries trading sharply higher, thereby reducing the threat that earlier in the week helped send gold crashing below $1835. A combination of high inflation and the economic risks associated with the new virus strain could provide renewed demand following the recent washout. US ten-year real yields slumped to –1.09% while the nominal yield dropped to 1.54% just days after threatening to break above 1.7%. From a technical perspective, a break above $1816 would signal renewed strength and a possible fresh challenge towards the $1830-35 resistance area. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) slumped on renewed Covid concerns ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting. The market got caught up in a wave of caution overnight with Brent falling 3% as the new and fast mutating virus variant drives worries about renewed restrictions on mobility at the time when the existing delta is already triggering renewed lockdowns in Europe. Next week’s OPEC+ decision on production levels for January has suddenly been made extra hard with the risk of weaker Covid-related demand coming on top of the SPR release announcement earlier this week. US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). A new Covid wave is leading investors to fly to safety provoking yields to drop roughly 10bps across the whole US yield curve. However, we expect the bond rally to be short-lived for several reasons. First, the market has learnt through earlier new strains that Covid is temporary. Secondly, a renewal of lockdown measures would make supply chain bottlenecks worse, introducing even more inflationary pressures to the economy. Therefore, it’s necessary for central banks to stop stimulating demand, keeping intact the recent Fed’s hawkish tilt. We expect more aggressive monetary policies beginning with an acceleration of the pace of tapering in December, followed by earlier interest rate hikes expectations. It will be inevitable for yields to resume their rise and the yield curve to bear flatten. Today investors will find poor liquidity in markets due to the Thanksgiving holiday, cautious will be needed. German Bunds (IS0L). The new German government unveiled a governing coalition deal. Among the extensive list of policies, bond investors should focus on the accommodative fiscal policies for 2022 and 2023, the beginning of a “decade of investment” and the rejection of a new lockdown amid a record rise of Covid cases. More spending translates to higher Bund yields. However, yields remain muted as Europe becomes the new epicenter of Covid-19 infections. With news of the new South Africa strain, yields might fall until we’ll have a full picture of what is happening. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds remained in check as governments in Europe move forward to impose new restrictions due to a rise Covid-19 infections. Yet, investors should remain vigilant as the PEPP program will still end in March. To weaken sentiment in BTP’s further is also the news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to il Quirinale to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi entered in Italian politics will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? What we know about the new Covid virus variant that’s hurting markets. The new Covid virus variant, with a scientific description of B.1.1.529 but with no Greek letter yet designated, has been identified in South Africa and observers fear that its significant mutations could mean that current vaccines may not prove effective, leading to new strains on healthcare systems and complicating efforts to reopen economies and borders. Researchers have yet to determine whether it is more transmissible or more lethal than already known variants. As of Thursday, 90% of 100 positive PCR tests in a specific area of South Africa were of the new variant. The South Korean central bank raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.00% as expected and signaled further rate hikes to come, saying that rates are still accommodative after now having hiked twice for this cycle. The Swedish Riksbank kept rates at 0%, sees lift-off by the end of 2024. This is the first time the bank has indicated a positive rate potential in their policy forecast horizon. SEK tried to rally yesterday, but is stumbling badly overnight, with EURSEK is soaring this morning in correlation with the decline in global market sentiment, as the Swedish krona is very sensitive to the EU economic outlook and a weaker euro and to risk sentiment more generally. The 2021 EURSEK high near 10.33 is suddenly coming into view after the pair traded south of 10.00 less than two weeks ago. Australia Retail Sales leap 4.9% month-on-month versus 2.2% expected, as lockdowns ended across the country, but with the market is not in the right place to celebrate the news as new Covid strain fears elsewhere dominate the news flow and the Aussie traditionally trades weaker when risk sentiment tanks as it has done since last night. What are we watching next? This is a remarkable and violent shift in mood at an awkward time for markets - as the most liquid global market, the US, was out yesterday for a holiday and the Friday after Thanksgiving (today) usually sees the vast majority of traders and investors still on holiday, with the US equity market only open for a half session. Ahead of the weekend and with the new virus news afoot, markets may have a hard time absorbing new trading flows and the risk of gap-like moves rises. Black Friday consumer spending – retail sales during Black Friday today and over the weekend is often a good barometer on consumer confidence and causes big moves in retailers the following week as their weekend sales are announced. Earnings Watch – the new Covid-19 virus strain observed in South Africa is obviously overshadowing the two important earnings releases from Meituan and Pinduoduo, but they are important for investors investing in Chinese technology companies. Despite Chinese companies at the margin have fared better than expected on earnings in Q3, estimates for Q4 and beyond are still coming down. Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – ECB President Lagarde to speak0830 – Sweden Oct. Retail Sales1300 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak1330 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Stocks lurch pressured crypto on Friday

Stocks lurch pressured crypto on Friday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.11.2021 09:24
The cryptocurrency market opens Friday on a positive note, while traditional markets are experiencing a classic risk-off. Bitcoin has lost 2% since the start of the day, but this pullback has so far only brought it back to Tuesday’s levels at $57.5. Since the beginning of the week, bulls have been buying BTC and ETH on dips, forming higher lows sequence. However, this support looks like thin ice that may not withstand a heavy, more than 2% drop in key Asian indices from the start of the day on Friday and a decline of around 1% in US index futures. With increased equity market volatility, crypto investors should be on guard. Because of the institutional love affair, Bitcoin is substantially vulnerable to moments of exit from risky assets when it sells off everything, regardless of the outlook. And its severe sell-off risks dragging the entire cryptocurrency down with it. From a different perspective, retail investors have developed a reflex to buy crypto on coronavirus fears, with WHO discussing new virus variants and restrictions on air travel. This means that real crypto-enthusiasts and long-term investors in cryptos may consider buying it out of the severe downturn on the exit of traditional financial institutions.
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

This couldn‘t have come at a worse time

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.11.2021 10:44
Podcast 2021-11-26 09:55 20 minutes to read Summary:  Today we look at the news of the new Covid variant hitting global markets like a ton of bricks at almost the worst imaginable time, as liquidity is poor over the ongoing US Thanksgiving holiday, with most US market participants away from their desks on holiday and the most liquid global market in the US only open for half a session today. We underline that we have no idea what will happen in the ongoing development of this virus news, but that traders should tread with extreme care, given that near term volatility risks are extreme on the unfortunate timing, particularly giving the sudden shift in focus that this news brings relative to recent themes and current market positioning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Santa preparing to take back the reins of the market! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Silver on Christmas gift list

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.11.2021 11:06
Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New virus strain pulls back online vs offline bets in equities

New virus strain pulls back online vs offline bets in equities

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 26.11.2021 11:52
Equities 2021-11-26 11:20 7 minutes to read Summary:  Equities markets are selling off due to new virus strain due to this strain being much more infectious than the current dominant variants, but more importantly uncertainty over how effective the vaccines will be on this new strain. This uncertainty lifts the probability of more lockdowns and travel restrictions and as a result traders selling off physical companies in energy, mining, financials and consumer discretionary against health care, utilities, and technology stocks. While overshadowed of today's risk-off event there have been several key news out on Chinese equities related to Didi Global, Evergrande, and Meituan which we cover in today's equity update. Equities react to increased likelihood of new lockdowns Financials markets are in upheaval over a new Covid virus strain (called the Nu variant) has been identified in South Africa, which seems to be more infectious than the current dominant strains. With Europe and some northern parts of the US in a stretched situation to an already high number of new cases and hospitalizations, this new virus strain comes at the worst possible time. The good thing is that the more infectious the virus get the less likely it is to also get more virulent, but it can still put pressure on hospitals. Equities are reacting negatively because it is unknown at this point to what degree the vaccines will be effective against the new strain, and thus it increases risk of new lockdowns which leads to an economic hit. Another good thing is that South Africa has been open and transparent about the virus strain which means that countries can react faster and because societies are better prepared the impact overall on the economy such be less than initially during the pandemic. The online vs offline companies trade is expressed today Due to the rising probability of lockdowns, which was already in play before the news of the new virus strain, traders and investors are again pulling out the pandemic playbook on equities. The chart below shows Nasdaq 100 futures vs Stoxx 50 futures over the past 10 trading days which expresses the online/technology vs offline/physical companies. The idea is that online companies can better weather new lockdowns where as companies operating in the physical world obviously are more impacted by travel restrictions and potential lockdowns. Smaller companies are also more vulnerable which is why Russell 2000 futures and the global index on small cap companies are under pressure today. Liquidity is thin today going into the weekend and being on the backside of Thanksgiving in the US (trading in US equities ends today at 1300 EST) and thus the initial reaction in equities was aggressive, whereas a couple of hours into trading European equity futures have bounced back somewhat. Not surprisingly the worst performing sectors today in Europe are energy (lower demand for oil), financials (potential hit to loan books), industrials (more supply constraints and lower demand), consumer discretionary (lower demand for cars and other large consumer items), where as health care, utilities, and technology companies are less off as these sectors are necessities and can weather lockdowns better. China equities continue to weighed down by bad stories Besides the risk-off trade in equities several key stories have hit Chinese equities over the past 24 hours. The Chinese government has asked Didi Global to delist from NYSE emphasizing once again the hidden volatility in Chinese listed stocks in the US. Our view remains that investors that want exposure to China should do that through mainland and Hong Kong listings. Stocks related to the housing market was impacted negatively today from news that Evergrande’s founder Hui Ka Yan has sold shares worth $344mn which is seen as a negative for the company and the industry’s outlook, as the Chinese government is urging Hui to use his own wealth to bolster the company’s finances. Finally, Meituan has reported Q3 earnings showing revenue growth of 38% as expected but operating margins under pressure leading to widening losses as the technology crackdown and “Common Prosperity” are forcing Meituan to increase operating expenses on social security for its gig workers. Appendix: 5-year chart on Nasdaq 100 and Stoxx 50 futures
Covid Strikes Back

Covid Strikes Back

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 26.11.2021 12:44
November 26, 2021  $USD, Covid, Currency Movement, Hungary, Mexico, South Korea Overview: Concerns that a new mutation of the Covid virus has shaken the capital markets.  Equities are off hard, and bonds have rallied.  In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have rallied.  While there may be a safe haven bid, there also appears to be an unwinding of positions that require the buying back of the funding currencies, which is also lifting the euro.  The currencies levered from growth, the dollar-bloc and Scandis are weaker.   Oil has been knocked back by around  6.7%, with January WTI trading near $73. Led by 2%+ losses in Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and 1%+ losses in South Korea, and Taiwan, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has slumped to its lowest level since July.   Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped lower and is off around 2.4% near midday.  US futures are sharply lower (1.25%-2.5%).  The US 10-year yield has dropped around 12 bp to nearly 1.50%.  While UK Gilts have kept pace with US Treasuries, continental benchmark yields are off 6-8 bp.  The US 2-year yield is about 15 bp lower (~0.49%), while European 2-year yields are mostly 2-5 bp lower.  The 2-year Gilts yield has shed about 12 bp, as the market unwinds some of the chances of a rate hike next month.   Key Development: A new variant of the Covid virus was found.  It is thought to have the most mutations to date.  The EU, UK, Israel, and Singapore have quickly banned travel from South Africa and five neighboring countries.  This is coming on top of and is separate from the outbreak in Europe, where Germany has reported a record number of new cases and several other countries have introduced new restrictions.  Almost a third of Shanghai flights were canceled as three local cases were found.  US infections are also on the rise.  Asia Pacific  As widely expected, South Korea hiked its key 7-day repo rate by 25 bp to 1.0% yesterday.   It follows a 25 bp hike in August.  Consumer inflation rose 3.2% year-over-year in October, while the core rate rose 2.8%.  Growth in Q3 was 4.0%.  With today's roughly 0.3% decline, it brings this year's loss to almost 9%.  Only the yen (~-9.4%) and the Thai baht (~-11%) have performed worse in the region.   Australia reported stronger than expected October retail sales.  The 4.9% month-over-month surge was more than twice the Bloomberg median forecast (2.2%) and follows September's 1.3% gain.  It underscores the recovery that is taking place. The preliminary PMI showed the recovery continuing into November.  The composite rose to 55.0, its highest reading since June.   The dollar was fraying the upper end of the range we anticipated against the yen, pushing against JPY115.50.  The momentum looked to have been at risk of stalling when the news struck.  The dollar was sold to almost JPY113.65.  An option for $710 mln at JPY113.70 expires today.  The price action appears to be stabilizing a bit in the European morning, and the greenback is hovering around JPY114.00.    The trendline connecting the September and the previous two November lows comes in today near there today.  The JPY114.50 area looks to offer initial resistance.  The Australian dollar had been leaking through $0.7200, and the risk-off move sent it slightly through $0.7115, just above the low for the year set on August 20, closer to $0.7105.  A break could spur a move toward $0.7050, which is the (38.2%) retracement of the Australian dollar's recovery since March 2020, when it hit a low near $0.5500.  The $0.7140 area may provide the initial cap for the bounce.   The Chinese yuan is a rock.  It has hardly moved despite the broader developments.  The greenback is slightly (less than 0.05%) firmer and still a little below CNY6.39.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3936, a touch above the CNY6.3934 median projection (Bloomberg survey).   Europe Part of the limited reaction short-end of the European debt market derives from the fact that investors had not expected a change in ECB's monetary policy until the very end of next year, at the earliest.  The surge in the delta strain had already emerged as a weight on the euro.  We had put emphasis on the divergence with the US and saw it captured in the two-year interest rate differential between the US and Germany.  The US premium had risen from around 90 bp in mid-September to 140 bp in the middle of this week.  It has fallen back to about 128 bp today.  Some observers had focused on the year-end adjustments of European banks and the shifting of liquidity through the cross-currency swap basis.   The new German coalition has been announced, and it will have its work cut out.  A record number of new cases have been reported in Germany, and many countries are introducing new social restrictions.  Portugal will try something a bit different.  It is set to require people to work from home in early January for a week to avoid a spike in the virus after the holidays.   Hungary was more aggressive than expected yesterday.  It raised its one-week deposit rate by 40 bp to 2.90%.  Recall that on November 18, it had hiked the one-week deposit rate 70 bp to 2.50%.  Two days earlier, it lifted the base rate 30 bp to 2.10%.  The forint had fallen to a record low against the euro on November 23.   The euro's high was just shy of HUF372, and it fell back to about HUF364.80 yesterday before jumping back to almost HUF369.50 today.  It has steadied around HUF368 in the European morning.   The euro's downside momentum had begun easing as bids below $1.12 were being filled.  The virus developments have spurred what appears to a be short-covering rally that has lifted the single currency thought $1.1280, where a 460 mln euro option expires today.  Nearby resistance is seen near $1.1300 and then last week's high near $1.1375.  Sterling recorded a new low for the year near $1.3280 in late Asian turnover before finding support.  It recovered to about $1.3335 so far.  A move above yesterday's high (~$1.3355) could spur a move to $1.3400-$1.3425.    America The dollar's rally has been fueled by the prospect of a divergence of monetary policy that favored the Fed over the ECB and BOJ.  Indeed, since the November 10 surprise jump in the October CPI to above 6%, we had emphasized the likelihood that the Fed would have to taper quicker to give it the flexibility to lift rates earlier if needed.  Since then, 4-5 Fed officials and several large banks have also underscored this possibility. However, this scenario is being called into question today, which is evident in the swaps markets and the Fed funds futures.  The implied yield of the June 2022 Fed funds futures contract is 7.5 basis points lower, and the December 2022 contract implied yield is down 14.5 bp.  The US dollar rallied to CAD1.2775, its highest level since late September.  It tests a downtrend line connecting the August (~CAD1.2950) and September (~CAD1.2900) highs. A convincing break of the trendline would signal a test on those earlier highs.   We are inclined to see it hold but cannot be confident until CAD1.2720 yields.   The Mexican peso was trampled before today amid concerns about the implications of President AMLO pulling Herrera's nomination for central bank head.  Herrera is a seasoned hand, and although he worked closely with AMLO from the finance ministry, his appointment did not seem to jeopardize the independence of the central bank.  Perhaps the market has been influenced by developments in Turkey, but the nomination of a less experienced and less known candidate has weighed on sentiment.  The dollar, already bid, jumped to MXN22.1550, at its best level since September 2020.   It has pulled back to around MXN21.83, which leaves it up around 1.2%.  This would be the seventh consecutive decline in the peso.  Support is seen around MXN21.60.  Disclaimer
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year

Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 26.11.2021 15:46
  It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year. CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) Futures (daily chart) With the “indicator of fear” (also known as the VIX or Volatility Index) spiking over 13.5 % in the European session, propelling some precious metals (gold and platinum) and natural gas to the roof, while sending the crude and petroleum products to the lower ground, the volatility has just clearly reached a higher level. (Source: FINVIZ) Most of our premium subscribers enjoyed a last ride on the long side for WTI crude oil this month while following our trade projections. For more details of the last oil trading position provided last week, I have just released that trade as it got very close to reach its projected target on Wednesday (Nov. 24). WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) The main fears on the oil market come from the possibility of a demand slowdown starting from Q1 2022. Additionally, that timing happens when the United States, along with a larger group of countries (including China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and the UK) have made the decision to release some of their strategic oil reserves on the market, aiming at artificially increasing the supply, and thus lowering oil prices. Well, this may represent one driver of prices indeed, although a more general economic slowdown associated with a non-sustained demand as we are getting into the winter, may be the main concern now. On the other hand, the winter – expected to be colder in certain regions – is also supporting the gas prices, hence the recent surge on the Henry Hub futures, along with sustained US exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) that are also supporting natural gas prices. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) In conclusion, we could be entering a new volatile period on the global markets, associated with various fears maintained through headlines by media (Covid variants, restrictions, etc.). For now, I would suggest staying away from the noisy headlines and just relax and enjoy some new pieces of turkey leftovers, or whatever else if you don’t eat meat. Ignore the noise and trade what you see (not what you think). Stay tuned and enjoy your weekend! As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve a high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 25, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 09:49
Macro 2021-11-25 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Asian stocks and US equity futures traded higher overnight as traders weighed Chinese efforts to support its economy, and after solid US economic data combined with persistent price pressures added to market concerns, the Fed may speed up its removal of policy support to curb inflation. In Treasuries, shorter maturity advanced while longer dated retreated after failing to break key resistance. The dollar trades close to a 16-month high while the crude oil market held steady with focus on next week's OPEC+ meeting. US cash markets are closed for Thanksgiving today with limited price activity expected. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday’s less bad than feared PCE inflation for October reversed momentum in US interest rates and pulled equities and especially US technology stocks higher. With the recent Powell and Brainard statements it is clear, that the Fed will put more weight on inflation than employment as we go into 2022, and thus the pressure will remain on interest rates and high duration assets such as technology stocks. Nasdaq 100 futures sit at 16,414 in early European trading and will have to overcome the 50% retracement level at 16,435 in order to continue the upward momentum. USDJPY – while US equities and US interest rates turned around yesterday, the reaction in USDJPY was less muted ending the sessions higher underscoring the strong USD momentum. The outlook is still predominantly a question of “will it or won’t it sustain a break above 115.00” which depends on whether the US 10-year yield can push into new highs for the year above the 1.75% level. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again managing to find support in the $1780 area. Another strong read on US inflation, this time the Fed’s favored PCE Deflator, helped flatten the US yield curve with the yield on short dated maturities rising while US ten-year notes ended lower after failing to break key resistance in the 1.7% area. The big price slump below $1830 this week was primarily caused by long liquidation from funds who had been rushing into gold before and after the recent CPI shock. Gold’s short-term ability to bounce will mostly depend on whether the washout has triggered a big enough reduction of recently established and now loss-making positions. From a technical perspective, a break above $1816 is the minimum requirement for calm to emerge. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) has settled into a nervous wait-and-see mode with focus on the Dec 2 OPEC+ meeting after its advisory board said the US-led coordinated release of reserves may drive a crude oil surplus early next year. This comes after the alliance called the move unjustified given current conditions and as a result, they may opt to reduce future production hikes when they meet on Tuesday. Yesterday’s EIA report was price supportive with crude oil stocks only seeing a small 1 million barrels increase despite a sharp drop in exports and another injection from strategic reserves. US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). Yesterday, we received a thorough list of data, which might have just given more reasons to the Fed to accelerate the pace of tapering during the next FOMC meeting. The PCE index rose to 5%, the highest since 1981 while inflation expectations for the next 5 years stuck to 3%. Jobless claims fell to the lowest since 1969, indicating that jobs are recovering fast. Lastly, the FOMC minutes showed that members are beginning to worry about less transitory inflation, provoking rate hikes expectations to accelerate by the end of the day. However, due to the looming holiday, US Treasuries remained muted. 5-year UST futures this morning are down during the Asian session despite low liquidity, indicating that sentiment is bearish. Friday’s trading session will also be affected by low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving schedule. We will have a better picture on Monday, but it looks likely yields will continue their rise and the yield curve flattening. German Bunds (IS0L). The new German government unveiled a governing coalition deal. Among the extensive list of policies, bond investors should focus on an accommodative fiscal policy for 2022 and 2023, the beginning of a “decade of investment” and the rejection of a new lockdown amid a record rise of Covid cases. More spending translates to higher Bund yields. However, yields remained mutes as Europe becomes the new epicenter of Covid-19 infections. Yet, Bunds remain vulnerable, and rates might move higher as US Treasury yields resume their rise. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds remained in check as governments in Europe move forward to impose new restrictions due to a rise Covid-19 infections. Yet, investors should remain vigilant as the PEPP program will still end in March. To weaken sentiment in BTPS further is also the news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to il Quirinale to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi entered in Italian politics will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? Europe’s Covid problem is deteriorating, and with the region now accounting for almost 60% of global Covid deaths, the risk of more lockdowns and restrictions continue to rise. German business climate in November slumped slightly more than expected to its lowest in five months as local companies grapple with supply bottlenecks and the mentioned fourth wave of COVID-19. Fed officials at their last meeting were open to removing policy support at a faster pace to rein in inflation. Since then, data have shown accelerating price pressure, not least after the Fed’s favorite gauge, the PCE Deflator rose 5% YoY, the fastest pace in three decades. "Various participants" noted the FOMC should be ready to tweak the tapering pace and raise the target range for the Fed funds rate sooner than currently expected if inflation continues to run higher, minutes showed. By now, the market has priced in a total of three rate hikes for 2022. EU gas trades higher again today, reaching $30.7/MMBtu (€93.5/GWh) today in response to rising winter demand, low power production from wind farms and increased competition from Asia which is ramping up its LNG imports. Sky-high day ahead prices for power adding to the pain with some countries approaching record highs. Power plants are burning more coal which is cheaper and more profitable and it has helped drive the emissions future (CFIZ1) to a new all-time high this week above €72.5 per tons. What are we watching next? The USD and US interest rates will make or break equities - it is clear that interest rate sensitivity is picking up as a theme as US interest rates are trading just below the two recent local highs in March and October. The USD is strong which puts pressure on emerging markets and any indications that the USD is losing momentum will improve flows into emerging market equities and bonds. Black Friday consumer spending – retail sales during Black Friday tomorrow and over the weekend is often a good barometer on consumer confidence and causes big moves in retailers the following week as their weekend sales are announced. Earnings Watch – with Thanksgiving today in the US market activity will be significantly lower than normal. Only earnings release today is from Norwegian Adevinta, which has already reported with operating income in Q3 coming in a bit lower than consensus. Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0700 – German Q3 GDP 0700 – German GfK Consumer Confidence   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 29, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.11.2021 09:48
Macro 2021-11-29 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  The market is trying to brush off fears that the new omicron covid variant may significantly disrupt the global economy, with only partial success as cases of the variant have been discovered in multiple countries outside of the original outbreak area. Equities and crude oil markets have erased a portion of the enormous losses from Friday, but the Japanese yen strength actually accelerated at times overnight as Japan will move to halt entry by all foreign visitors. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equity futures with especially Nasdaq 100 futures are charging ahead trading above the 50% retracement level based on Friday’s price action. The new Covid variant has for now made the market put monetary tightening on pause for a while until we get a better picture of the new variant and its impact. This is supporting US technology stocks as it puts less upward pressure on interest rates. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - European equities were down the most on Friday logically bouncing back the most in today’s session with Stoxx 50 futures trading at the 50% retracement level of Friday’s selloff at the 4,151 level. The next big resistance level on the upside is 4,189. If the new Covid variant ends up restricting mobility and travelling we expect Europe and emerging markets to perform worse than US equities. USDJPY and JPY crosses – The Friday meltdown in risk sentiment saw the Japanese yen rallying strongly, with a classic risk proxy pairing like the AUDJPY suffering its worst single day draw-down since the pandemic outbreak in March of 2020. While other markets tried to put on a hopeful face at the start of the week in Asia today, it is notable that the JPY strength has actually accelerated, perhaps in part as Japan is taking the remarkable step of banning all inbound travel from foreign destinations starting tomorrow. In USDJPY, we watch the important pivot low of 112.73, a fall through which could set up a challenge of the 111.50-111.00 zone that supports the trend from the lows of early 2021. Speculative positioning is quite short the JPY, so there is considerable potential fuel for an extension of this JPY rally. EURJPY has broken down through the important 128.00 area support overnight. EURUSD – the squeeze higher in EURUSD on Friday appears linked with the market moving quickly to remove expectations of Fed rate hikes in the wake of the news of the new omicron covid variant, which improves the equation for the euro from a “yield spread” perspective. For EURUSD to trade to new cycle lows from here, we would likely either need to see a return to new highs for the cycle in Fed expectations or some new meltdown in sentiment that would reward the US dollar more as a safe haven. Resistance is perhaps 1.1350-1.1385. Gold (XAUUSD) failed to attract a strong safe haven bid on Friday to push it through resistance at $1816. This despite multiple tailwinds emerging from the omicron-driven carnage after bond yields slumped while the dollar and the VIX jumped. Instead, a slump across industrial metals spread to silver and platinum, thereby curtailing golds potential upside. Gold trades lower today with other markets making a tentative recovery in the belief Friday’s selloff was overdone. However, until we have more details about the virus (see below) the markets will remain nervous as can be seen in fresh yen strength this Monday (see above). Four failed attempts to break below $1781, a key Fibonacci level, may also offer returning bulls some comfort. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) suffered one of its largest one-day crashes on Black Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness caused by widespread lockdowns and travel bans. Equally importantly was probably the very bad timing with the news hitting the markets on a low liquidity day after the Thanksgiving holiday. The market traded higher in Asia as buyers concluded the selloff was overdone while also speculating OPEC+ may act to support prices when they meet on Thursday. The group may decide to postpone the January production increase or if necessary, temporary cut production into a period that was already expected to see the return of a balanced market. Ahead of the meeting and until we know more about the new strain and its associated risks, the market will remain very volatile. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). The omicron strain will be in the spotlight this week as well as monetary policies expectations and the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow and on Wednesday will be key as the Coronavirus and CARES act will be discussed. It’s likely that rates will remain compressed across the yield curve as there continue to be uncertainties surrounding the omicron strain. Yet, we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to their hawkish agenda and accelerate the pace of tapering in December as inflation will continue to be a concern. It implies, the yield curve will continue to bear flatten, and could even invert as economic expectations dive, pinning down long-term yields. If the White House looks to add more stimulus, that would imply more bond issuance, putting further pressure in the front part of the yield curve. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). This week’s focus will be the Eurozone CPI flash numbers and news concerning Covid lockdowns and restrictions. Friday’s flight to safety provoked yields to drop across the euro area, including among sovereigns with a high beta such as Italy. The reason behind it is that German Bunds are tightly correlated to US Treasuries and that the market was anticipating more accommodative monetary policies from the ECB, which have been benefitting mostly the periphery. Investors should remain cautious. Indeed, inflation remains a big focus and could drive towards less accommodative policies rather than more. What is going on? Market is grappling with what to do about the omicron covid variant. The worst impact so far is from the speed with which countries are moving to halt inbound foreign travel, with many countries stopping all flights from South Africa and other countries in the region, while Japan has taken the dramatic step of halting all inbound foreign travel from tomorrow. More hopeful indications from virologists in the virus origin area are anecdotally that this variant is not particularly virulent, although others point out that too little is known about the virus’ effects on more vulnerable patients. Weak Black Friday spending in the US, particular in-store sales. While up strongly from last year’s virus impacted activity at physical stores, US Black Friday spending in-store was down some 28% from 2019 levels and the online shopping on Friday was at $8.9 billion vs. $9.0 billion in 2019, rather disappointing totals, although some suggest that Americans have brought forward their holiday shopping this year because of widespread fears of shortages of popular products. What are we watching next? Whether market can quickly recover from fresh wave of virus concerns. The virus concerns triggered by the new variant were a jarring development, given the prior focus recently on inflation and central banks having to bring forward tightening plans to stave off inflationary risks. US stocks have been the quickest to try to put a brave face on the situation and there is some support for equities as rate hike expectations from the Fed have dropped sharply and long US treasury yields are also sharply lower, but it will take time to learn how transmissible and virulent this new omicron virus strain is, as well as how much damage will be done to growth and sentiment by new limitations on travel and other restrictions. We also have to recall that prior to this news, Europe was the epicenter of the latest wave of the delta variant and was already trading somewhat defensively. US President Biden is set to speak this evening on the new virus variant. The UN FAO will publish its monthly World Food Price Index on Thursday, and another strong read is expected, although the year-on-year increase look set to ease from 31.3%. November has been another strong month for the grains sector led by wheat due to strong demand and worries about the Australian harvest. Elsewhere Arabica coffee trades near a ten-year high on increased concerns about production in Brazil. Before Friday’s carnage across markets the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot index had reached a 5 ½-year high after rallying by 40% during the past year. Earnings Watch – earnings this week are light with the key ones to watch being Li Auto, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Elastic, and DocuSign. Monday: Sino Biopharmaceutical, China Gas, Acciona, Li Auto Tuesday: Bank of Nova Scotia, Salesforce, Zscaler, NetApp, HP Enterprise Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Q3 GDP 0830 – ECB's Guindos to speak 0930 – UK Oct. Mortgage Approvals 1000 – Euro Zone Nov. Confidence Surveys 1130 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Temporary relief as dark clouds are gathering

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 11:02
Podcast 2021-11-25 10:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  Ahead of today's Thanksgiving holiday, the US equity market led by technology and bubble stocks saw a relief rally in response to a lower than feared PCE core inflation. However, as we note today a big change has happened inside the Fed with their focus switching from employment to combatting inflation in order to protect US households. The market is adjusting its expectations for rate hikes next year to almost three suggesting 2022 will be a very different year from the previous two years. On commodities we discuss the upcoming OPEC+ reaction to the recent Biden administration release of strategic oil reserves to ease the pain from higher oil prices. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Knee-jerk conclusions are a dangerous thing

Knee-jerk conclusions are a dangerous thing

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.11.2021 11:38
Podcast 2021-11-29 10:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  Today we look at markets trying to stabilize after Friday's traumatic reaction, amidst poor liquidity, to the news of the new omicron covid variant outbreak. Most of all, we are reluctant to draw any conclusions or endorse the market's attempt to do so as it will take some time to determine the scale of the danger from the new variant, not least from strict travel bans that are already taking shape. We also preview the week ahead in earnings and macro event risks in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Gold's Gains Get Marred as Biden Bonks Brainard

Gold's Gains Get Marred as Biden Bonks Brainard

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 29.11.2021 08:32
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 628th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 27 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com  Five key points right off the top: â–  Indeed literally at the top: the above Gold Scoreboard displays valuation having crossed above the $4,000/oz. threshold; and yet you can own Gold for a fraction of that at $1,792/oz given yesterday's (Friday's) settle; "Got Gold?" â–  Both wrong -- and moreover shocked -- we were over Biden's handlers writing "Jerome Powell" rather than "Lael Brainard" on the FedHead index card for the President to read aloud this past Monday; a selection 180° anti-correlative with the Administration's endless money 'n climate change modus operandi; â–  The emphasis of last week's piece was for a near-term technical pullback in Gold's price, wherein 'twas stated "...the 1800s ... appear safe..."; rather, this past week's low was 1777, the "Powell" selection being the fundamental impetus justifying that technical condition; â–  Prior to The WHO's (not the band, but the U.N. organization) effort to maintain its raison d'être with Friday's "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we were prepared to state that "Powell" would push for a FedFunds rate hike in the 26 January Policy Statement; but if this instead is "The Beginning of the End, Part Deux", shall they ever raise again? â–  And "Oh my! Omicron!" in turn is credited as the catalytical scapegoat for the S&P 500's -2.3% loss on Friday, (recall the single-day COVID losses in 2020 were several times that amount); yet still not a FinMedia peep about the S&P's earnings levels simply not being supportive of the Index: our "live" P/E = 49.3x; its lifetime median = 20.4x; (ready for the next means reversion?) Now: but for two trading day's remaining in November's balance, let's go with the following usual month-end graphic, albeit both Monday and Tuesday can well blow us far from Kansas, Toto. Thus with that in mind and seat belts fastened, here are the BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date. The economically-driven markets dominate the top three podium spots whilst the safe havens remain the also-rans. "Everything's great!" right? Specific to Gold, as above shown -5.7% to this point in 2021, here below we've the weekly bars and parabolic trends, the ongoing blue-dotted Long stance now four weeks in duration. As measured from a year ago, this past week was Gold's third worst performance on both a points and percentage loss basis. A bit of a heartbreaker, that. Even as "Oh my! Omicron!" is wild-card bullish for Gold; yet "Powell" is the more hawkish-to-be FedHead selection (bearish, but not really) for Gold: "You're saying that because rising rates have actually found Gold to rise too, right, mmb?" Spot on there, Squire. Lest we forget, from 2004-2006 the FedFunds rate rose from 1% to 5% and Gold from 380 to 710. Further, to reiterate, Gold by U.S. monetary debasement (wildly bullish) is today worth the Scoreboard-noted 4001. Either way, Gold's year-over-year percentage track has been, on balance, sideways. Which in turn really emphasizes the "Live by the miners, Die by the miners" nature of precious metals-based equities as is starkly made obvious here: For the record from this time a year ago, as positive we've only Franco-Nevada (FNV) +5%, followed in decline by Gold itself -1%, Newmont (NEM) -3%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) -5%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) -6%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) -12%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -19%. (Note to those of you fortunate enough to be scoring at home: the U.S. Money Supply for the same period is +12% versus the supply of Gold just +1% ... Pssst: again, "Got Gold?"). As for our Economic Barometer, the past week's slate of incoming metrics found but one which was negative: October's Durable Orders (itself a volatile series). The balance of the bunch had improvements including Home Sales (both New and Existing), plus Personal Income and Spending. But the "turn a blind eye to it" Q3 Chain Deflator was revised upward: that's the party pooper, further highlighted by the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation -- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures -- doubling its October growth over that for September. "Hey Jay! Raise 'em 26 January anyway?" Here's the Baro along with the wee pullback in the S&P: Next as we go 'round the horn with the BEGOS Markets, their respective rightmost daily bars are indicative of Friday's "Oh my! Omicron!" effect. And note from the safe haven standpoint the net comparable under-performance of the precious metals vis-à-vis the leaps by the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. As well, the three year-to-late leaders in the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings turned tail toward butt ugly, namely Oil, Copper and the S&P 500. And with all those baby-blue dots of trend consistency on the skids, a Santa Claus rally doesn't at present appear in the bids: As for the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, be it for Gold on the left or Silver on the right, from each one's height, they now hardly look right. Indeed, the pick of "Powell" thus far trumps any Gold-positive fear of "Oh my! Omicron!": And thus Gold for November has gone from stud to dud, the rightmost monthly bar below barely green by a nub. Gold's trying to re-secure The Northern Front remains a Battle Royale: So there it all is. Gold was on a November roll -- up some 95 points (+5.3%) -- just over a week ago, albeit with momentum already perceptively slowing, our last missive showing. Then Monday came Biden's shocking bonking of "Brainard" toward maintaining "Powell" as FedHead, and from the month's high of 1880, Gold post-bonk was swiftly down over 100 points. Even as a safe-haven following Friday's WHO surprise "Oh my! Omicron!" cry, Gold bounced a bit, but failed to hold grip, the question now being: "Does Gold further slip?" Regardless, we answer: "Just buy Gold's dip!" Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.deMeadville.com
Things are not adding up any longer in the car industry

Things are not adding up any longer in the car industry

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 29.11.2021 13:49
Equities 2021-11-29 13:00 10 minutes to read Summary:  In today's equity research note we take a look at the global car industry. Since late 2005 it has been a low growth industry also reflected in the low total return of the industry prior to the pandemic. But during the pandemic and with the high revenue growth rates of pure electric vehicles makers the industry's combined market value across traditional carmakers and pure EV-makers has gone to unprecedented levels reflecting excessive expectations that we do not think can hold. The reason behind this is the acceleration in EV adoption and we provide concrete alternatives to bet on this transition without getting exposure to pure EV-makers with elevated equity valuations. Market value does not add up with structural growth profile This year should have been the year when the global car industry came back from the dismal 2020 impacted by the global pandemic and a 6% rise in global new passenger car registrations could be interpreted as the industry coming back. However, as the chart on car registrations in the US, Europe, and China shows, the global car market has been weakening the past couple of months and most notably in Europe. In fact, the combined new car registrations across the three largest car markets in the world are down 19% from the peak in August 2018. Since December 2015, global new car registrations have only grown by 1.8% annualized with a clear saturation starting in early 2017 and then turning into a longer term decline by late 2018. It seems that the global car market has become saturated and the pandemic exacerbated an already weak industry on the demand side. As demand came back, the car industry faced new issues on supplies of semiconductors. In the early days of the pandemic, car manufacturers cancelled orders on semiconductors as they believed demand to be weak for a long time, but as governments unleashed unprecedented stimulus economies weather the pandemic and with the vaccines approved in late 2020, the economy came roaring into 2021. But car manufacturers buy lower margin semiconductors and as they were late to come back ordering semiconductors, the semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers due to high demand on graphics cars for gaming and crypto, and semiconductors used in datacenters and computers. Car manufacturers were put back in line and have ever since scrambled to get priority causing production to be reduced on lack of semiconductors. The pandemic and climate change awareness also happened to ignite demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the EV transition may have reached an inflection point where it is beginning to drive postponement of buying a gasoline car. Why buy a technology that is being phased out and why not buy an EV when governments are providing incentives to do so? Despite these structural challenges and low growth profile the MSCI World Automobile Index has exploded in value over the past 18 months driven by a bonanza in EV-makers and excessive expectations best exemplified around the Rivian IPO. From December 2005 to the peak in new car registrations in August 2018, the index gained 5.2% annualized compared to 3.9% annualized gains over the period in new car registrations. This highlights that market value more or less follows volume plus/minus changes in price mix and operating margins. With the recent gain in the global index on car manufacturer the industry’s market value has become completely unanchored to the underlying structural growth rate. The only explanation that can justify this is new car registrations quickly closes the drawdown from August 2018 and that EVs can be manufactured at higher operating margins, but this requires that competitive forces do not force retail prices on new cars down to the old profitability level on gasoline cars. Source: Bloomberg EV bonanza will end in a graveyard The key change in the car industry is the production ramp-up of EVs as consumers are increasingly demanding these new cars. Public markets have been flooded with new car companies producing only EVs and the market is currently putting a higher market value on the 11 largest EV-makers compared to the 11 largest traditional carmakers. As we have written in previous research notes this reflects excessive expectations on EVs that we find difficult to justify given the structural growth profile of the overall car industry. Having said that the outlook for cars over the coming three decades is clearly in our view. ICEs will experience a negative growth profile while EVs will have a steep growth curve over the next 10 years before gradually slowing down. But are pure EV-makers the best play? At current market values, we believe expectations are set above what these companies can deliver and we encourage investors to find other ways to bet on the high growth rates in EVs. One way is to find exposure among semiconductor companies with exposure to cars, lithium miners or battery makers for the batteries to EVs. The list below highlights a few names across this supply chain for EVs. Infineon Technologies (semiconductors) NXP (semiconductors) Renesas (semiconductors) Texas Instruments (semiconductors) STMicroelectronics (semiconductors) Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (lithium miner) Albemarle (lithium miner) SQM (lithium miner) Livent (lithium miner) Orocobre (lithium miner) Panasonic (battery) QuantumScape (battery) TDK (battery) Gotion High-tech (battery) Varta (battery) Should carmakers spin off their EV units? Given the market value on pure EV-makers the traditional carmakers should in our view consider spinning out their EV units into separate businesses with their own public listing, but maintaining majority shareholder control. The higher market value for a pure EV-business could be used to raise significant amount of capital to accelerate growth in production, but a separate business unit could reduce friction from internal culture and political fights. The recent problems internally at VW show that labour unions and workers in the traditional internal combustion engine divisions will make the transition difficult. Porsche is a good bet on a specific EV spinoff from a traditional carmaker and something that could yield a significant valuation improvement. Porsche is aiming to get 40% of revenue from EVs in 2025. If traditional carmakers are not spinning off their EV units, we believe they will have difficulties keeping up with pure EV-makers.
Sentiment Remains Fragile

Sentiment Remains Fragile

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 29.11.2021 14:08
November 29, 2021  $USD, Covid, Currency Movement, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Japan Overview: The fire that burnt through the capital markets before the weekend, triggered by the new Covid mutation, burned itself out in the Asian Pacific equity trading earlier today. A semblance of stability, albeit fragile and tentative, has emerged. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 1%, led by real estate, information technology, and energy.  US index futures are trading higher, with the NASDAQ leading.  Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer.  The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen about six basis points to 1.53%.  European yields are mostly 1-2 basis points higher, while the UK Gilt yield is up four basis points. The dollar remains, as we say, at the fulcrum of the major currencies, but in an opposite way, with the funding currencies that rallied strongly before the weekend seeing their gains pared today, while the dollar bloc and Scandis trade firmer.  Among the emerging market currencies, the liquid and freely accessible currencies, such as the South African rand, Russian rouble, and Mexican peso are leading the recovery.  The Turkish lira and central European currencies, perhaps dragged down by the softer euro, underperform.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is slightly firmer after falling around 0.4% before the weekend.  Gold held support near $1780 but has been unable to resurface above $1800.  January WTI jumped by about 5% after the 13% drop at the end of last week.  Iron ore surged 6.5%, recouping in full the 5.6% decline in the last session to approach its recent highs.  Winter weather is beginning to be experienced in Europe, and natural gas (Netherlands) is up 7.75% after falling 4.8% ahead of the weekend.  Copper is recouping a little less than half of last Friday's nearly 4% fall.   Asia Pacific Faced with much unknown about the new mutation, several Asia Pacific countries are opting to close their borders to foreign travelers.  Initially, countries limited the travel ban to a handful or so of countries from Southern Africa.  It does appear that the omicron variant has been around before being sequenced in South Africa, and it is has been found in several countries. However, the origin is still not clear.  While some reports from South Africa suggest mild symptoms, there is good reason for the World Health Organization's caution.  If a new vaccine is needed for the variant, reports suggest it could take around 100 days.  Recall that Japan has lifted its formal emergency in late September, and the economy is rebounding as anticipated.  Today's data showed retail sales rose for a second month in October.  The 1.1% increase lifted the year-over-year rate to 0.9%.   Purchases of clothing and food surged by 9.2%.  Auto sales, still hampered by supply chain disruptions, was the only category that fell.  After a frustratingly slow start, Japan's inoculation efforts have been successful, and the vaccination rate is above 75%.   Before news of the new variant broke, the dollar was around JPY115.50.  It fell to nearly JPY113.00 before the weekend.  It recovered in early dealing to almost JPY113.90 before the weakness of the regional equities contributed to its push lower.  Bloomberg pricing data showed it recorded a JPY112.99 low near midday in Tokyo.  It bounced to almost JPY113.65 in late dealings and has been consolidating in the European morning.  The option for $350 mln at JPY113.40 that expires today has likely been neutralized.  The market appears to be waiting for a new development to push it out of the JPY113-JPY114 range.  The Australian dollar held the pre-weekend low slightly below $0.7115 and is making session highs late in the European morning near last Friday's high (~$0.7155).  Nearby resistance is seen in the $0.7180-$0.7200 area. Recall that last week's 1.55% decline was the fourth consecutive weekly loss and the largest in three months.  The greenback gave up its pre-weekend gain against the Chinese yuan and a bit more today.  It did not even trade above CNY6.39 today, settling above it at the end of last week.  As we have noted, it remains within the range set on November 16 of roughly CNY6.3670-CNY6.3965. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3872 and continued to set it above expectations (CNY6.3858, via Bloomberg).   Two issues seem to be receiving attention today.  First are the prospects of easing by the PBOC in the face of continuing weakening of the economy. The November PMI will be released starting first thing tomorrow.  Second, China's property developers have an estimated $1.3 bln in debt servicing next month, following $2 bln this month.   Europe Outside of the virus, two issues dominate investors' attention in Europe today.  First are the November inflation reports from Spain and Germany ahead of the preliminary aggregate figures tomorrow.  The other is the increasingly bellicose rhetoric between the UK and France over the channel crossings and fishing.   Spain's harmonized November CPI rose by 0.3% to lift the year-over-year rate to 5.6%.  It is the fastest pace since 1992.  It follows October's 1.6% increase and 5.4% 12-month rate.  Food and energy were the main drivers.  The increase was in line with forecasts.  In September, the central bank's chief economist had anticipated that November could be the peak in inflation and anticipated it falling back below the 2% target in 2022.  German states are reporting their November CPI figures, and the country's measure will be reported late today.  The states' measures are consistent with forecasts calling for the nation's harmonized measure to fall around 0.2%.  However, the year-over-year pace is projected to accelerate to 5.5% from 4.6% due to the base effect.  The EMU aggregate preliminary CPI is forecast (Bloomberg median) to be flat on the month for a 4.5% year-over-year pace (up from 4.1% in October).  The core rate is projected to climb to 2.3% from 2.0%.  The euro poked slightly above $1.1330 at the end of last week and settled just above $1.1315.  It traded near $1.1260 in late Asia/early Europe and caught a bid that brought it back to about $1.1290.  There is a 1.7 bln euro option at $1.13 that expires today.  The intraday momentum indicators are getting stretched, warning of the downside risk in early North American activity.  Sterling recorded a new low for the year ahead of the weekend, near $1.3280. It is trading in about a quarter-cent range today, around $1.3335, and staying within last Friday's range.  The pre-weekend high was closer to $1.3365.   After an eight-day rally, the December short-sterling interest rate futures contract is trading slightly heavier today.  The market expectations have shifted from a good chance of a hike next month to a bit more than a third of a chance.   America The US auto sales and jobs highlight this week, but Fed officials are out in force too.  Today Powell, Williams, and Hasson speak at an innovation conference, and Bowman discusses the central bank and indigenous economies. Tomorrow, Powell and Yellen testify before a Senate committee on the CARES Act.  Their prepared remarks are expected to be released later today that may also work for the testimony on Wednesday on the same topic before a House committee.    Tuesday, Clarida discusses the Fed's independence, while Williams will speak on food security.  The Beige Book, in preparation for next month's FOMC meeting, is due Wednesday too.  No fewer than five Fed officials speak in the second half of the week.  Our initial bias continues to be for faster tapering at the December FOMC meeting. It still seems to be the prudent course to maximize the Fed's ability to respond to a broad range of probable economic outcomes.  The US pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, due today, are not typically market movers.  And today is unlikely to be an exception.  Canada reports its Q3 current account surplus (expected to be around C$5.7 bln, up from C$3.6 bln in Q2.  It also reports raw material and industrial prices for October.  The week's highlight is tomorrow's September and Q3 GDP, followed by Friday's employment report.  Mexico reports October unemployment figures (median forecast in Bloomberg's survey calls for a 4.07% rate, down from 4.18% in September). Concerns about President AMLO's appointment to the central bank lingers even though the peso may benefit from the correction to the 1.6% pre-weekend drop.   The US dollar spiked to almost CAD1.28 before the weekend.  It fell to nearly CAD1.2720 today.  The pullback was seen in Asia, and it has been consolidating since then.  Still, the greenback looks vulnerable to a further retracement of the pre-weekend gains. Initial potential extends toward CAD.2680-CAD1.2700.   The broader risk appetites may be the key today for both the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.  The greenback jumped to MXN22.1550 amid the pre-weekend turmoil.  This now marks the high for the year.  It pulled back initially to MXN21.6850 in Asia, but the selling pressure eased, and it traded in an MXN21.7630-MXN21.9000 range in Europe.  We suspect the combination of the trajectory of US monetary policy plus the concerns about the central bank of Mexico boosts the chances that the peso underperforms generally.  Moreover, rising price pressures and a weak economy put officials in a difficult position, especially given AMLO's reluctance to deploy fiscal measures to support the economy.   Disclaimer
Day That Changed the World?

Day That Changed the World?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.11.2021 15:48
S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions. Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs. Looking at Friday‘s price action, PMs retreat shows that all won‘t be immediately well in commodities, where oil looks the most vulnerable to fresh bad news in the short run (while stocks would remain volatile, they would find footing earliest). Demand destruction fears are though overblown, but the dust looks to need more time to settle than it appeared on Friday above $72-$73: (…) New corona variant fears hit the airwaves, and markets are selling off hard. We can look forward for a light volume and volatile session today – S&P 500 downswing will likely be cushioned by the tech, but high beta plays will be very subdued. Commodities are suffering, and especially oil is spooked by looming (how far down the road and in what form, that’s anyone’s guess) economic activity curbs / reopening hits. Precious metals are acting as safe havens today (mainly gold) while the dollar is retreating – and so will yields, at least for the moment. Time for readjustment as the wide stop-loss in oil was hit overnight – it’s my view that the anticipated demand destruction taken against the supply outlook, is overrated. When the (rational / irrational) fears start getting ignored by the markets, we‘re on good track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and a good sign of better days approaching would be tech and healthcare sound performance joined by financials and energy clearly on the mend. Earliest though, HYG should turn. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to not merely retrace half of its daily trading decline. Money coming out of hiding in Treasuries, would be a precondition of prior trends returning. They will – they had been merely punctured. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals gave up opening gains, and with the hit to inflation expectations, lost the developing tailwind. It would though come back in an instant once calm minds prevail or fresh stimulus gets sniffed out. Crude Oil Crude oil had a catastrophic day – how far are we along capitulation, remains to be seen. The oil sector didn‘t decline by nearly as much, highlighting the overdone and panicky liquidation in black gold. Copper Copper decline didn‘t happen on nearly as high volume as in oil, making the red metal the likelier candidate for a rebound as the sky isn‘t falling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum marching up on the weekend, were a positive omen for the above mentioned asset classes. In spite of cryptos still being subdued, the overall mood is one of catious optimism and risk very slowly returning. Summary Friday‘s rout isn‘t a one-off event probably, and S&P 500 would turn higher probably earlier than quite a few commodities. Cynically said, the variant fears let inflation to cool off temporarily, even as CPI clearly hasn‘t topped yet. As demand destruction was all the rage on Friday, supply curbs would get into focus next, helping the CRB Index higher – and that‘s the worst case scenario. Precious metals certainly don‘t look to be on the brink of a massive liquidation – the current selloff can‘t be compared to spring 2020. For now, the price recovery across the board remains the question of policy, of policy errors. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Feeling the Quickly Changing Pulse

Feeling the Quickly Changing Pulse

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.11.2021 16:15
S&P 500 rebound still ran into selling pressure before the close – the bulls lost momentum however well the government and Fed‘s words were received. Credit markets hold the key – specifically, how corporate bonds and Treasuries perform compared to each other. This would be also reflected in the yield spreads, dollar moves, or cylicals vs. stay-at-home stocks.Today‘s analysis will be shorter than usually, so let‘s dive into the charts to fulfill my title‘s objective (all charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and the bulls have to decidedly repel any selling pressure - a good sign of which would be a close in the 4,670s.Credit MarketsAs encouraging as the HYG upswing is, it‘s too early to call a budding reversal a done deal. LQD to TLT performance is a good start, which however needs to continue. The worst for the bulls would be renewed rush into Treasuries, sending other parts of the bond market relatively down.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals retreated again, but the bullish case is very far from lost. As discussed in the caption, the upswing appears a question of time – gold and silver are ready to turn on soothing language of fresh accomodation.Crude OilCrude oil upswing left a lot to be desired and as I tweeted yesterday, remains the most vulnerable within commodities. The dust clearly hasn‘t settled yet within energy broadly speaking.CopperCopper held up considerably better than many other commodities, and gives the impression of sideways trading followed by a fresh upswing as having the highest probability to happen next.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum marching up today, is a positive omen for gradual and picky return of risk-on trades. The overall mood is still one of catious optimism.SummaryFriday‘s rout hasn‘t been reversed entirely, and markets remain vulnerable to fresh negative headlines. The degree to which current ones (relatively positive ones, it must be said) helped, is a testament of volatility being apt to return at a moment‘s notice. I‘m certainly not looking for the developments to break inflation‘s back – CPI clearly hasn‘t peaked. Precious metals are well positioned to appreciate when faced with any grim news necessitating fresh monetary or fiscal activism.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 30.11.2021 18:42
Commodities 2021-11-30 10:30 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. While a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since last Tuesday, it is nevertheless interesting, not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Finally, it also gives us an idea about the level of positioning ahead of Friday's omicron related sell off Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. The report normally released on Friday's was delayed due to last weeks Federal holidays, and while a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, its nevertheless interesting. Not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Also it gives a good idea about how funds and speculators were positioned ahead of the sharp risk off to the new omicron virus variant. Commodities The commodity sector saw sizable shift out of energy and metals into the agriculture sector where all 13 futures contracts covered in this update saw net buying. During the week the energy sector lost 2.1% while precious metals dropped 4.3% after gold broke below key support at $1830. A 1.5% rise in copper was not enough to convince speculators who cut their net long by 20%. Most noticeable however was the strong buying seen across the agriculture sector, with strong demand and weather worries more than offsetting the headwind caused by the stronger dollar. Energy: Crude oil, both Brent and WTI, were sold ahead of the coordinated SPR release announcement last Tuesday. The combined net long dropped by 14k lots to a one-year low at 514.6k lots. The loss of price momentum during the past few months has, despite an overriding bullish sentiment in the market, been driving the reduction, and following Friday's 10% price collapse these traders have been rewarded for sticking to the signals the market was sending instead of listening to bullish price forecasts. Hedge funds are not "married" to their positions hence their better ability to respond to changes in the technical and/or fundamental outlook.Metals: Having increase bullish gold bets by 65k lots during the previous two weeks, funds were forced to make 45k lots reduction last week in response to the Powell renomination sending gold sharply lower and below support in the $1830-35 area. Speculators have been whipsawed by the price action in recent weeks and it helps to explain why they are in no mood to reenter in size despite renewed support from Covid19 angst. Silver's 6% sell off during the week helped trigger a 17% reduction in the net long to 30k lots while in copper a small price increase was not enough to stem the slide in net length. Following seven weeks of selling, the net length has dropped by 64% to 19.5k lots, a 13-week low. Months of rangebound behaviour has reduced investor focus, and until we see High Grade Copper make an attempt to break its current $4.2 to $4.5 range, the level of positioning is likely to remain muted. Agriculture:  More concerned with other drivers such as weather, strong demand and supply chain disruptions helped trigger across the board buying of all 13 futures contracts split into grains, softs and livestock. The combined long held across these contracts reached a six-month high at 1.13 million lots, representing a nominal value of $43.5 billion. Buying was broad with the top three being corn, sugar and soybeans. Elsewhere the net long in Arabica coffee reached a fresh five-year high at 58k lots and KCB wheat a four-year high at 65.6k lots. UPDATES from today's Market Quick TakeCrude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) turned sharply lower in early European trading as the mood across markets soured on renewed concerns about the omicron virus strain. This after Moderna’s head told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale. The news come days before the OPEC+ group of producers meet to discuss production levels for January. Brent crude oil already heading for its biggest monthly loss since March 2020 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, a sign that more weakness may lie ahead, thereby raising the prospect for OPEC+ deciding to pause or perhaps even make a temporary production cut. Gold (XAUUSD) received a muted bid overnight in response to the omicron virus comments from the head of Moderna (see oil section above). In addition, comments from Fed chair Powell helped reduced 2022 rate expectations from three to two after he said the omicron virus posed risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment. Despite this development together with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, gold continues to struggle attracting a safe-haven bid. Silver (XAGUSD) looks even worse having dropped to a six-week low on weakness spilling over from industrial metals. Forex:Broad dollar buying following Fed chair Powell's renomination helped drive a 20% increase in the greenback long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar index to $25.4 billion and near a two-year high. All the currencies tracked in this saw net selling with the biggest contributors being euro (12.6k lots), CAD (11.8k) and JPY (4.1). The net short on the latter reached 97.2k lots or the equivalent of $10.6 billion, a short of this magnitude helps explain the strength of the sell off in USDJPY since last Thursday when safe haven demand picked up as the omicron news began to spread. Despite hitting a 16-month low last week the euro short only reached 12.6k lots, a far cry from the -114k lots reached during the panic month of February last year when the pair briefly traded below €1.08. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 1, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 01.12.2021 09:27
Macro 2021-12-01 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Even more whiplash for global markets yesterday as Fed Chair Powell has clearly set an entirely different tone ahead of his new term as Fed Chair, saying that it was time to retire the word transitory when discussing inflation and pointing to accelerating the slowing of Fed asset purchases, among other comments. This led to a sharp repricing of Fed expectations higher just after they had been taken sharply lower by the news of the omicron covid variant. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - the initial reaction to Powell’s statement about retiring “transitory” inflation was lower equities and higher interest rates, but the subsequent price action has not followed through. Nasdaq 100 futures, which are the most interest rate sensitive, are trading at the high end of the recent trading range around the 16,380 level with the obvious resistance level at 16,438. Short-term the price action way be confusing with low signal-to-noise ratio, but our view has been clear for over a year, and that is, that inflation is coming and in size not seen in many decades. This will have a negative effect on the most richly valued equities such as our bubble basket on stocks. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - one would think that Powell’s comments on inflation would lift value stocks and interest rates, and thereby creating a bigger rebound in European equities, but that is not what we are observing this morning. Stoxx 50 futures are trading around the 4,100 level with an important resistance level at 4,125; if this level can be overcome then our view is that Stoxx 50 futures could go to 4,200 and test the 200-day moving average. USDJPY and JPY crosses – whiplash for JPY cross traders yesterday, as the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell on inflation took Fed expectations for next year sharply back higher. Longer US yields, to which USDJPY is normally more sensitive, were less impacted, somewhat muting the impact on USDJPY, but the development came at a critical time, just after USDJPY had dipped below 112.73 range support yesterday. The reversal is a tentative sign that the pair will avoid pushing lower, but we would likely need to see the entire US yield curve lifting to have support for a renewed rally focusing on the 115.00+ recent top. EURUSD - will the ECB be forced to change its tune? Christine Lagarde’s insistence that inflation is a temporary phenomenon is under severe strain, even as she has been out this week defending this viewpoint, as was the ECB’s Schnabel, who boldly claimed that the November CPI data (more below) would prove the peak of the cycle. EURUSD churned sharply yesterday from a high of 1.1383 to a low of 1.1236 on the Fed Powell comments (below) before rebounding to 1.1336. The resilience later in the day despite a sharp repricing of Fed expectations is an interesting development, but the price action would need to threaten above 1.1500 to point to a technical reversal of the recent large sell-off. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades sharply higher after hitting a three-month low on Tuesday in response to omicron related demand worries and general weak risk sentiment following Fed chair Powell’s comments on inflation. The market attention now turns to tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting where the group may decide to pause production hikes while signaling a willingness to cut production should the demand suffer from fresh initiatives to curb mobility, especially for overseas travel. As a sideshow, the EIA will release its weekly inventory report later with the API reporting a 0.7m barrels draw in crude oil stock while fuel stocks rose. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again recovering from a Powell statement. Yesterday the Fed chair confirmed his recent change in focus away from creating jobs towards increasing efforts to curb elevated inflation. Risk appetite took another setback on the news but has recovered overnight as traders weighed positive regional economic data and divided views from drugmakers over how effective existing vaccines are against omicron. Overall, gold chart looks increasingly messy with no clear signal to be found at present. A break above the 21-DMA at $1820 is needed to spark fresh momentum interest while support continues to be found below $1780. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Powell’s testimony in front of the senate put things in perspective: inflation is not transitory, and the Federal Reserve will use its tools to stop it. These words provoked a fast bear-flattening of the yield curve where short term yields rose faster than log-term yields were dropping. We expect this trend to continue throughout winter as a new wave of covid will pin down the long part of the yield curve, but the Fed is likely to accelerate the pace of tapering. An inversion risk cannot be excluded. The 20s30s part of the yield curve is already inverted, while the 7s10s is just 7bps to get inverted. Although the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are much wider, any flattening can pose a threat to next year’s Fed’s interest rate hike agenda. Powell and Yellen will testify again in front of the Senate today. Job numbers remain a big focus for Friday. US junk bonds (HYG, JNK). According to Bloomberg Barclays indexes, junk bonds’ OAS widened by 30bps to 330bps amid Friday’s selloff reflecting the lack of liquidity in markets. Despite negative real rates continuing to support corporate bond valuations, it’s safe to expect junk bond spreads to widen throughout the end of the year amid poor liquidity. If the volatility in rates remains sustained, the widening of spreads could accelerate, posing a threat also for stocks. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). Inflation accelerated more than expected in the Eurozone during the month of November setting the yearly figure to 4.9%. Inflation figures together with the new German government adds to the catalysts of higher Bund yields. However, covid distortions are keeping yield in check. We exclude Bund yield to rise to test 0% until the new wave of covid eases. However, as soon as the worries concerning covid ease, they will resume their rise. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell confirms that Fed emphasis has shifted to inflationary risks. In testimony before a Senate committee yesterday, Fed Chair Powell waxed far more hawkish than the market anticipated on inflation concerns, saying outright that it is time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the description of inflation, that “the risk of higher inflation has increased” and that “the risk of persistent high inflation is also a major risk to getting back to such a labor market.“ (referring to the pre-pandemic labor market). Powell also pointed to the likelihood that the Fed would wind down Fed balance sheet expansion more quickly than previously anticipated: “perhaps a few months sooner”. In response, expectations for Fed rate hikes next year were jolted back higher, just after they had been jolted lower by the omicron covid variant news. Hot EU CPI numbers for November. Preliminary headline November EU CPI was out at 4.9% year-on-year, far above the 4.5% expected and the 4.1% in October and by far the highest inflation print since the launch of the euro. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, above the 2.3% expected and the October level of 2.0%. This is also the highest level since the launch of the euro in 1999. Germany’s incoming chancellor Scholz speaks on inflation, compulsory covid vaccination. The political pressure on the ECB to act is ratcheting higher after incoming German chancellor Scholz said that action must be taken if inflation fails to drop, though he seemed now to accept the notion that inflation is linked to covid measures and the spike in energy prices. He also spoke yesterday in favor of mandatory covid shots. Salesforce shares down 6% on Q4 guidance. Investors are used to being spoiled by Salesforce with consistently beating analyst expectations, but last night the cloud application software company disappointed on Q4 guidance with revenue in line and adj EPS at $0.72-0.73 vs est. $0.82. The company also announced that Bret Taylor will become co-CEO next to founder Marc Benioff in a sign that the founder may soon step down like so many other technology founders in recent years. What are we watching next? Markets adjusting to new reality of a more hawkish Fed. In particular if the omicron variant of the covid virus proves a temporary distraction, global markets will need to adjust the major adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s focus and what that could mean for the US dollar and asset valuations ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric yesterday likely mean a heightened reactivity to incoming data from here on out, all modulated in the very near term by headline risks in either direction on the omicron variant. The first major data points are the ISM Service index and November jobs report up on Friday. The Average Hourly Earnings could take over in importance from the payrolls change number if it shows more aggressive rises, as it seems clear that labor supply is the chief problem US companies face, as seen in record job availability and “quits” as workers leave jobs for greener pastures. ADP employment figures for November. With the US economy operating at full capacity according to estimates from CBO, continued strong job gains will add fuel to the “inflation fire”, so today’s ADP figures could more interest rates and equities. Economists are looking at 525K vs 571K in October which would be a significant two-month change for an economy that has closed the output gap, but on the other hand, the US economy is still short around 8.5mn jobs from current levels to where employment would have been if we did not have the pandemic. Earnings Watch – growth investors will have their eyes on Snowflake set to report after the market close with analysts expecting FY22 Q3 (ending 31 Oct) revenue growth of 92% y/y. Crowdstrike, being one of the fastest growing cyber security companies in the world, will also be key to watch today. Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – Switzerland Nov. CPI 0815-0900 – Euro Zone Final Nov. Manufacturing PMI 1315 – US Nov. ADP Employment Change 1330 – Canada Oct. Building Permits 1445 – US Nov. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.12.2021 08:17
USDCAD seeks support The Canadian dollar edged higher after Q3’s GDP beat expectations. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias in the US dollar’s favor. The break above the resistance at 1.2770 suggests that the bulls retain control of the direction. An overbought RSI has tempered the bullish fever temporarily, which may be an opportunity for buyers to accumulate. September’s high at 1.2900 is the next target. A bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally towards 1.3100. 1.2730 is now fresh support. AUDUSD falls towards 11-month low The Australian dollar bounced back on upbeat GDP in Q3. The break below 0.7170 has negated October’s rally. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart confirms that sentiment has turned sour. The Aussie is heading to October 2020’s low and the psychological level of 0.7000. An oversold RSI has prompted sellers to start to cover in that congestion area. 0.7190 is a resistance from the previous demand zone and trend followers are likely to sell a rebound. Buyers will need to take out those offers to ease the pressure. UK 100 to test daily support The FTSE 100 struggles with doubts about vaccine efficacy against the omicron variant. A drop below the daily support at 7190 triggered a sharp liquidation. Then a short-lived rebound has met stiff selling pressure at 7170. The index is hovering above the origin of the October rally at 6945. The bulls will need to clear the resistance before they could hope for a recovery. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to test the triple bottom (6830) from the daily timeframe. And that is the key to the uptrend’s integrity in the medium term.
Apple Stock Price and Forecast: AAPL still could reach $200 by year end

Apple Stock Price and Forecast: AAPL still could reach $200 by year end

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.11.2021 17:39
Apple stock recovers ground on Monday as it rises 2%. AAPL shares close above $160 and just below all-time highs. Apple and equity indices see increased volatility as Omicron data awaited. After a freaky Friday, it was back to business as usual on Monday with equity markets putting in a solid start to the week. All those rookie traders who panicked on Friday were likely given a stern rebuke from returning senior traders who know that this market in 2021 is a one-way bet. That is thanks to the flow of money from the Fed juicing markets, a huge earnings potential from mega tech names and now a large buyback season as companies are past earnings blackouts. That is certainly what happened on Monday as volumes returned from Friday's reduced levels and markets got back to rallying. Goldman Sachs had said it does not see Omicron as a risk, and the South Africans appear to see this as an overreaction, with cases being reported as mild so far. Hopefully, this plays out to be true, but while it is hard to derail this 2021 bull, we could be in for some volatile weeks ahead. Apple (AAPL) stock news We await more concrete evidence on how sales look for Black Friday/Cyber Monday, but initial reports were not positive with overall online sales down on previous years. Wedbush though sees Apple selling 10 million iPhones over the Thanksgiving weekend and predicts 40 million iPhone sales between now and Christmas. It should be noted Wedbush is strongly bullish on Apple. They have been largely correct with that stance. Apple did receive some good news yesterday in the form of a price target raise from HSBC. Apart from that, it was relatively calm on the news front. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast AAPL stock really needs to break above $162 to hold Monday's gains and push on. Above there, volume thins out, so a move to all-time highs should be achievable. Failure though will likely see a move lower to $150. Volume is light until then apart from a slight spike with support at $157. AAPL 30-minute chart The daily chart shows the strong trend intact and the $157 support. Large volume support sits at $148. AAPL 1-day chart
Twitter steps out of Dorsey’s shadow

Twitter steps out of Dorsey’s shadow

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 30.11.2021 17:54
Equities 2021-11-30 14:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Twitter's founder Jack Dorsey is stepping down as CEO leaving the reign to CTO Parag Agrawal. This is hopefully the beginning of a new trajectory for Twitter that has underperformed relative to its potential for way too long. The company has two main objectives. Lift revenue growth to around 30% which would put Twitter well above Facebook and Alphabet in terms of growth, and then drastically improve the operating margin to around 35% which would be almost double of the current level. Is this Twitter’s Nadella moment? Another technology founder in Silicon Valley is leaving the stage, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta is one of the few left, with Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO after presumed a lot of pressure from shareholders such as the activist hedge fund Elliott Management. His successor is the CTO Parag Agrawal and Dorsey will stay on the board for 2022. The main question is whether this is Twitter’s Nadella moment (Nadella is the current CEO of Microsoft and took over in 2014) meaning whether the new CEO with less strings attached and not being a founder can drastically change the growth and product profile of the company. Too much fat Our main issue with Twitter has always been the lack of consistency in operating margins. Given how consistent Google and Facebook are running their business it has always been a mystery why Twitter has not been more consistent in its operating performance. The company’s operating margin has come down for three straight quarters despite a healthy backdrop for online advertising spending in terms of demand and pricing. Free cash flow generation has been very disappointing over the past year and ultimately that has been driving the share price lower. Twitter has to fundamentally improve the EBITDA margin from its current 18.5% to somewhere closer to 35%; it will be a stretch to demand Facebook-like margin of 50%. If Twitter’s new CEO can deliver that then shareholders are in for some great returns. But more importantly there are no excuses for not delivering high revenue growth while improving the operating margin when you are generating $5bn in annual revenue. Facebook and many other technology companies have been able to grow revenue and operating margin at the same time. Twitter must do the same. Source: Bloomberg So there are two operating yardsticks for shareholders: revenue growth and operating margin. The latter should easily be done by either reducing headcount or at least stop hiring more people at the same pace as before. On revenue growth the key yardstick is to grow faster than the duopoly (Meta and Alphabet) which is expected to grow revenue around 20-25%. Twitter needs to take market share and get closer to Snap revenue growth in order not to lose the narrative and sentiment from investors. In our book, Twitter should be able to grow 30-35% on improved engagement, product features, more brand spending from large brands etc. and with analysts currently estimating 21% revenue growth in 2022, there is a heavy and urgent task ahead for the new CEO. Source: Bloomberg Twitter is an acquisition target With Dorsey gone as CEO and eventually leaving the board by late 2022, it clears the way for an acquisition of the company should the right buyer with the right price come by. Twitter could be an interesting bolt-on acquisition for a traditional media company that wants to enter the social media industry. Investors were initially trading the shares higher on the news of Dorsey stepping down, but the shares ended lower for the session now down 43% from the peak in late February. Given the expectations from earlier this year it is clear that the company has not performed as expected and the new CEO Agrawal will have to quickly earn the trust of investors. For Twitter we really hope this is the company’s Nadella moment. Analysts remain positive on the stock with a 12-month price target of $68 which 49% above yesterday’s close.
The Fed Worries About Inflation. Should We Worry About Gold?

The Fed Worries About Inflation. Should We Worry About Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 30.11.2021 16:43
Oops!... Gold did it again and declined below $1,800 last week. What’s happening in the gold market? Did you enjoy your roast turkey? I hope so, and I hope that its taste – and Thanksgiving in general – sweetened the recent declines in gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (London P.M. Fix) plunged from above $1,860 two weeks ago to above $1,780 last week. It has slightly rebounded since then, but, well, only slightly. What exactly happened? Funny thing, but actually nothing revolutionary. After all, the reappointment of the same man as the Fed Chair and the publication of the FOMC minutes from the meeting that had already took place earlier in November, were the highlights before Thanksgiving. Well, sometimes lack of changes is a change itself and information about the past can shed some light on the future. Let’s start from Powell’s renomination for the second term as the Federal Reserve chair. In response, the market bets that the Fed will hike interest rates more aggressively in 2022 have increased. At first glance, the strong investors’ reaction seems strange, given that the monetary policy shouldn’t radically change with Powell still at the helm. However, the continuation of Powell’s leadership implies that Lael Brainard, regarded as more dovish than Powell, won’t become the new Fed Chair – what was expected by some market participants. Hence, the dovish scenario won’t materialize, which is hawkish for gold. Just two days later, the FOMC revealed the minutes from its November meeting. The main message – the Fed decided to taper its quantitative easing – was, of course, included in the post-meeting statement. The minutes revealed, however, that the Fed officials had become more worried about inflation and had expressed a more hawkish stance than the statement suggested. First of all, we learned from the minutes that some central bankers opted for more aggressive tapering and a more flexible approach that would allow for adjustments in the face of high and persistent inflation: Some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions that would result in an earlier conclusion to net purchases (…). Some participants suggested that reducing the pace of net asset purchases by more than $15 billion each month could be warranted so that the Committee would be in a better position to make adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, particularly in light of inflation pressures. Various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee's objectives (…) participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives. This is because the FOMC members’ concerns about inflation strengthened. As we can read in the minutes, They indicated that their uncertainty regarding this assessment had increased. Many participants pointed to considerations that might suggest that elevated inflation could prove more persistent. These participants noted that average inflation already exceeded 2 percent when measured on a multiyear basis and cited a number of factors—such as businesses' enhanced scope to pass on higher costs to their customers, the possibility that nominal wage growth had become more sensitive to labor market pressures, or accommodative financial conditions—that might result in inflation continuing at elevated levels. Last but not least, the Fed officials also made other hawkish comments. Some participants argued that labor force participation would be lower than before the pandemic because of structural reasons. It implies that we are closer to reaching the “full employment”, so monetary policy could be less accommodative. What’s more, “some participants highlighted the fact that price increases had become more widespread”, while a couple of them noted possible signs that inflation expectations had become less anchored. So, the Fed officials’ worries about inflation strengthened. Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, both the reappointment of Powell as the Fed Chair and the latest FOMC minutes were interpreted as hawkish, which pushed gold prices down. The more upbeat prospects for monetary tightening are clearly negative for the yellow metal, as they boosted the bond yields (see the chart below). This is something I warned investors against earlier this month. I wrote in the Fundamental Gold Report on November 16 that “when something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again.” This is exactly what happened. Later, in the article on November 18, I added that “I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900”. Well, gold failed to do this, so I’m not particularly bullish on gold right now. We could say that gold did it again: it played with the hearts of gold bulls but got lost in the game, as it didn’t resist the pressure. Yes, the new Omicron variant of coronavirus has been noted, and uncertainty about this strain could provide short-term support for the yellow metal. However, it seems that the prospects of monetary tightening and higher real interest rates will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices. I agree, the rally looked refreshing after months of disappointment. However, it seems that we have to wait longer, possibly for the start of the Fed’s increasing the interest rates, to see gold truly shining. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Bitcoin retreats, but interest in meta-currencies and ether persists

Bitcoin retreats, but interest in meta-currencies and ether persists

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 30.11.2021 15:28
The cryptocurrency market remains in a state of apprehension, although the degree of it continues to weaken, as reflected in the rise in the relevant index from 33 yesterday to 40. The overall capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market, according to CoinMarketCap estimates, has fallen by 0.7% in the past 24 hours. However, the situation in the financial markets is firmly tied to the news of a new strain and therefore things could change very quickly. The main pressure during the last 24 hours was in the last hours, so it is worth being prepared for higher volatility later in the day. Fear in the financial markets, if entrenched, promises to seriously push down the price of bitcoin and ether, and through them spread negativity across the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is currently clinging to $56K. At 5% below, at 54 there is a signal support level, the capture of which could signal an acceleration of the sell-off. The opposite is also true, at 5% above the current price, at 59 lies an area of local highs. An ability to consolidate above this level would indicate strong buying demand. Despite Bitcoin's weak performance, which has been hovering around current levels for the past week and a half, the Ether remains up-trending. It has added 1.5% in the last 24 hours and over 6% in the last seven days. On the intraday charts, there is still a buying trend on the downtrends. In our view, this looks like a good trend. Bitcoin is often seen to preserve capital, while Ether and several other coins are working projects. In recent weeks, there has been an influx of interest in meta-currency projects, as crypto enthusiasts see a real business model behind them. All of this is bringing the crypto market closer to the stock market, only taking it to a new, less centralised, and regulated level. Everyone has their answer for good or bad. But it is almost certainly temporary.
EUR/USD: Sellers aligning around the 1.1300 level

EUR/USD: Sellers aligning around the 1.1300 level

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.11.2021 14:58
Concerns about the Omicron covid variant weigh on the market’s sentiment. German inflation peaked at 6% YoY in November, according to preliminary estimates. EUR/USD has lost bullish strength and may soon resume its decline. The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower on Monday around the 1.1280 price level after hitting an intraday high of 1.1313. The American dollar is slowly recovering some of the ground shed on Friday as the market’s mood improves. Asian stocks plummeted, although European indexes trade with modest gains, leading to an uptick in US futures. US Treasury yields are also recovering ground, with the yield on the 10-year note currently at 1.54%. Concerns about a new coronavirus variant firstly detected in South Africa spurred risk aversion on Friday and triggered some measures such as borders closures. Still, the variant, named Omicron, has already been detected in different European countries. So far, the WHO has called it a variant of concern, although there’s not much information about it. Pfizer is developing a study to understand whether their vaccine works against this new strain, while Moderna announced a new shot to combat it could be developed by early 2022. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said this Monday that European policymakers aim to avoid the premature tightening of the monetary policy, repeating that high inflation could be expected to be transitory, despite being stronger and more persistent than anticipated a few months ago. On the data front, the EU published the November Economic Sentiment, which came as expected at 117.5, down from the previous 118.6. Germany published the preliminary estimate of its November Consumer Price Index, which came in higher than anticipated, up by 0.3% in the month and 6% YoY. The US will publish October Pending Home Sales and the November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index after Wall Street’s close. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair was unable to advance beyond the 23.6% retracement of its November decline at 1.1305, the immediate resistance level. According to the daily chart, the latest advance seems corrective, as technical indicators bounced from extreme readings, now resuming their declines and hinting at a bearish continuation. The 20 SMA maintains its firmly bearish slope above the 38.2% retracement of the same decline, reflecting sellers’ strength. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair remains above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators retreat from oversold readings but remain within positive levels. The bearish case will be firmer on a break below 1.1245, the immediate support level. Support levels: 1.1245 1.1200 1.1165 Resistance levels: 1.1305 1.1340 1.1395
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 30.11.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 30.11.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.11.2021 09:27
USDJPY tests daily support The yen consolidates gains after a drop in Japan’s unemployment rate. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at March 2017’s high (115.50). The drop below 114.80 then 114.00 has forced short-term positions to bail out, exacerbating the sell-off. The US dollar is hovering above the key daily support at 112.70. An oversold RSI has brought in some buying interest. 114.20 is a fresh resistance. On the downside, a breakout could dent the optimism in the medium-term and pave the way for a bearish reversal. NZDUSD breaks major support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure as risk assets suffer from the omicron variant scare. A break below the daily support at 0.6860 has put the buy-side on the defense. Sentiment has become increasingly downbeat after the pair fell past last August’s low at 0.6805, which is a second line of defense on the daily chart. 0.6700 would be the next support. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has caused a temporary rebound. But buyers will need to clear 0.6890 before they could turn the tables. US 30 sees limited rebound The Dow Jones 30 struggled to bounce as investors grew cautious. A break below the demand zone near 35500 has prompted the bulls to exit and reassess the short-term sentiment. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as traders take profit. 35700 is now a resistance and the bears may see a rally as an opportunity to sell into strength. The demand zone between 34150 and 34400 from mid-October is a major floor to keep the uptrend intact. A deeper correction may send the index towards 33000.
Bitcoin, overcoming adversity

Bitcoin, overcoming adversity

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.11.2021 10:47
Nevertheless, this might be over soon. Regulation might kill the majority of the expanded crypto world. Bitcoin might be banned, as it has been in the past in various countries. And yet, once fiat currency value implodes, bitcoin will be the last man standing. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, last weeks call on the nose: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. We posted the above weekly chart of bitcoin in last week’s chart book release. We anticipated a low-risk entry. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, as planned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 29th, 2021. Since then, prices have swiftly penetrated our entry zone. We caught two trades, a daily and a weekly time frame position. We posted these trades (entries and the partial exits), as usual, in real-time in our free Telegram channel.Furthermore, we employ a quad exit strategy that ensures instant risk elimination by quickly taking half of the position off. With entries of US$ 53,877 (daily timeframe trade) and US$ 54,000 (weekly timeframe trade), we were able, with first exits at US$ 54,591 and US$ 55,797, to not only eliminate risk but ensure profits on half of the positions of 1.33% and 3.33%. As well our next following targets have been reached! We took another 25% of position size out at US$ 55,811.6 and US$ 57,317.7, which booked us another 3.59% return on the daily position and 6.14% on the weekly position. The remaining 25% of position sizes on each trade we call runners. With stops set now at break-even entry levels, we can only produce additional winnings for each trade. Each trade had tight stops, assuring less than half a percent of risk per trade.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, modest odds for follow through: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 30th, 2021. The possible contrarian short signal on the monthly chart makes the weekly trades success probabilities for the runner smaller. Nevertheless, this quad exit approach allows for low-risk positioning versus endless mind chatter and debate since it is typical that different time frames show different long, short and sideways plays. Here, bitcoin again overcomes adversity. Typically, tight ranged instruments erase many trade opportunities for profit margins relating to commissions and risk to small. The earlier mentioned profit percent numbers are typical for bitcoins volatility and, as such, allow for risk reduction and short- to midterm profitability being more extensive than the average S&P500 annual return. Bitcoin, overcoming adversity: Bitcoin will be the cure to inflation damage for those you invested in it in a timely manner. Inflation is a creeping disease to money. Humans seem to have in history always procrastinated towards dangers of inflation, mostly since inflation treads slowly. Inflation also holds illusions supporting hope, hope that also fuels procrastination. While most who suffer under inflationary times think prices for goods went up, the reality is that monetary value went down. With this illusion, we hold on to stock portfolios seemingly rising, bonds, 401ks, and Roth IRAs trusting governments for the status quo to be protected or at least trouble to be temporary. Much more likely, most citizens are drained of their savings and cheated out of their retirements. At the end of such a monetary devaluation cycle, it will be the last time bitcoin will defend its place.  Doubt will finally vanish. Unfortunately, too late for those who did not educate themselves early enough to find a haven in this principled way to protect one’s wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn

Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 29.11.2021 15:46
Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing. While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order. To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70. Why am I telling you this? To emphasize that what happened recently was neither random nor accidental. What you see is a true, short-term top that formed in tune with previous patterns. You also see a fake inverse head-and-shoulders formation that was invalidated. This means that the implications of what happened really are bearish. Let’s check why and how, in tune with the past patterns, the previous broad top really was. Please see below: The GDX ETF rallied on huge volume on Nov. 11 and there were only 4 cases in the recent past when we saw something like that after a visible short-term rally. In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX was after a sharp daily rally. In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX-based RSI indicator (upper part of the chart above) was trading close to 70. The rallies that immediately preceded these 4 cases: The July 27, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 29-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 42% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 24% of time). The November 5, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 5-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 14%-15% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (20% of time). The January 4, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 26-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 17%-18% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (about 4% of time). The May 17, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 52-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 30% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 13% of time). So, as you can see these sessions have even more in common than it seemed at the first sight. The sessions formed soon before the final tops (4% - 24% of time of the preceding rally before the final top), but the prices didn’t move much higher compared to how much they had already rallied before the high-volume sessions. Consequently, since history tends to rhyme, it would have been only natural for one to expect the GDX ETF to move a bit higher here (but not significantly so) and for one to assume that this move higher would take between additional 0 to 7 trading days (based on the Nov. 12 session). That’s what is wrote to my subscribers – to expect this kind of performance. The final top formed on Nov. 16 - 4 trading days after the huge-volume session, practically right in the middle of the expected 0-7 trading day range. Moreover, since the GDX topped very close to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it seems that miners corrected “enough” for another huge downswing to materialize. Having said that, let’s move on to more recent developments. Gold price declined heavily recently and the same goes for the silver price. What’s more, the proxy for junior mining stocks - the GDXJ ETF (our short position) materially underperformed on Nov. 26 – after it declined by nearly 3x the percentage of the GDX ETF – and, in my opinion, more downside is likely to materialize over the medium term. The GDXJ ETF ended the Nov. 26 session slightly below its 50-day moving average, and the milestone is often a precursor to sharp drawdowns. That’s what happened in late February 2020 and also in mid-June 2021. Big declines followed in both cases. Moreover, with the S&P 500’s weakness on Nov. 26 mirroring the onslaught that unfolded in early 2020, the GDXJ ETF’s underperformance follows a familiar script. As a result, another ‘flash crash’ for the pair may unfold once again. Keep in mind, though: while asset prices often don’t move in a straight line, a bullish pause may ensue if/once gold reaches its previous lows. All in all, though, lower lows should confront the GDXJ ETF over the short term and my $35 price target remains up to date. As a reminder, that’s only an interim target, analogous to the late-Feb. 2020 low. Interestingly, it is the February 2020 low along with its late-March 2020 high that created this target. Also, the GDXJ/GDX ratio is falling once again. And with the price action implying that the GDXJ ETF is underperforming the GDX ETF, a drop below 1 isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. In fact, it’s quite likely. As such, this is why I’m shorting the junior mining stocks. For context, I think that gold, silver and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward proposition due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets in the general stock market. Finally, the HUI Index/gold ratio is also eliciting bearish signals. For example, I marked (with the shaded red boxes below) just how similar the current price action is to 2013. And back then, after a sharp decline was followed by a small corrective upswing before the plunge, the ratio’s current behavior mirrors its historical counterpart. What’s more, the end of the corrective upswing in 2013 occurred right before gold sunk to its previous lows (marked with red vertical dashed lines in the middle of the chart below). Thus, the ratio is already sending ominous warnings about the PMs’ future path. In addition, with the S&P 500 acting as the bearish canary in the coal mine, the ratio plunged in 2008 and 2020 when the general stock market tanked. Thus, if a similar event unfolds this time around, the gold miners’ sell-off could occur at a rapid pace. For more context, I wrote previously: A major breakdown occurred after the HUI Index/gold ratio sunk below its rising support line (the upward sloping black line on the right side of the chart above). Moreover, with the bearish milestone only achieved prior to gold’s crash in 2012-2013, the ratio’s breakdown in 2013 was the last chance to short the yellow metal at favorable prices. And while I’ve been warning about the ratio’s potential breakdown for weeks, the majority of precious metals investors are unaware of the metric and its implications. As a result, investors’ propensity to ‘buy the dip’ in gold will likely backfire over the medium term. In conclusion, the crowd has turned on the precious metals, and the narrative has shifted once again. However, despite all of the drama and the volatility that came with it, the technicals have been predicting this outcome for several months. And with the GDXJ ETF down by more than 20% YTD (as of the Nov. 26 close), the junior miners’ 2021 performance is far from critically-acclaimed. As a result, the chorus of boos will likely continue over the short- and/or medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Chart of the Week - Crude Oil Capex Collapse

Crude oil year-long uptrend questioned but not yet broken

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.11.2021 15:13
Oil bounced back on Monday morning, adding 4% for Brent and 4.5% for WTI after a more than 11% plunge on Friday. At the end of last week, the collapse was triggered by reports of a new covid variant. Reduced liquidity due to the holidays and shortened trading hours in the US increased the fluctuation amplitude. The liquidation of long positions brought Brent back to the level of the 200-day moving average, a critical support line for the uptrend. A consolidation below this level is usually seen as a signal of a long-term trend change. Oil's strong uptrend and staying above the 200-day moving average line has come into question on reports that the variant detected is resistant against existing vaccines. These fears subsided somewhat over the weekend, accounting for a pullback of a third from Friday's failure. Investors are now waiting for news and clarifications from virologists and politicians to finally decide whether the current price is attractive to buy or whether we could see an even bigger discount in the coming weeks. The technical analysis so far is on the side of the bulls. The oil price correction over the last month fits into traditional patterns if we consider the movement from November 2020 to October 2021 as one market impulse. The 200-day moving average has so far acted as support. Oil now looks less red-hot than at the end of October, having cleared the way for a new upward momentum and should return to multi-year highs by the end of this year.
Omicron-driven oil slump raises risk of OPEC+ action

Omicron-driven oil slump raises risk of OPEC+ action

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 29.11.2021 13:35
Commodities 2021-11-29 12:45 Summary:  Crude oil suffered its largest one-day crash since April 2020 on Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness at a time where the US is about to release millions of barrels of crude oil from its strategic reserves. While many have already concluded Friday's slump was an overreaction caused by thin market liquidity, the focus is once again squarely on the response from OPEC+ who will meet on Thursday to set production levels for January and potentially beyond. Crude oil suffered its largest one-day crash since April 2020 on Black Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness at a time where the US and other major oil importing nations are about to unleash millions of barrels of crude oil into the market from strategic reserves. Equally importantly was probably the very bad timing with the news hitting the markets on a low liquidity day after the Thanksgiving holiday. Long held bullish conviction trades got stopped out as the sudden elevated level of risk aversion drove major position adjustments across most asset classes. As volatility spiked, the options market also kicked into gear with hedging of short puts adding an additional layer of pressure with sell orders being executed at whatever price available. On Friday the 30-day historical volatility jumped from below 25% to 44% and it has ticked higher today, an indication of some unfinished business from Friday, but also a market which is struggling to settle down with Thursday’s OPEC+ decision adding an additional layer uncertainty. So far today, the market is trading higher, but already off their overnight highs, but the reduction in hedge selling has allowed buyers to take a fresh look with some concluding the move on Friday was most likely an overreaction. Not least considering the prospect for support being provided by OPEC+ who may attempt to prop up prices when they meet this Thursday. The group may decide to postpone the January production increase or if necessary, temporary cut production into a period that was already expected to see the return of a balanced market. Brent crude oil’s 11.6% top to bottom slump on Friday was only arrested when the price reached its 200-day moving average at $72.70 and after the price retraced 61.8% of the August to October surge. A key reason behind that run up in prices was driven by increased switching demand from record priced gas to cheaper oil-based fuels such as diesel, heating oil and propane. Following the drop in crude oil and continued strength in gas and power prices, the prospect for continued and rising switching activity will remain a key source of extra demand that did not exist during the 2020 slump. Source: Saxo Group Adding to crude oil’s current bid are forecasts from the world’s top commodity traders, all speaking at the FT’s Global Commodity Summit, that oil prices could return to $100 over the coming years as investment in new supplies slows down with oil majors diverting capex towards renewables instead of continued oil and gas production. It highlights a potential rising dilemma where politicians and investors want to move towards renewables at a much faster pace than actual changes can be made. Thereby creating the risk of a supply shortfall before demand eventually begins to slow towards the second half of this decade. Brent crude oil has set its sight on the 2019 peak at $75.6 ahead of the downtrend (red line) from the 2008 peak. Some focus on today’s FOMC meeting which may yield a change in the interest rate outlook while the market seeks further clues about the Fed’s view on inflation, and with that the need for inflation hedges through long commodity exposure.
New coronavirus strain triggers short-lived Bitcoin dip – Crypto Roundup, Nov 29, 2021

New coronavirus strain triggers short-lived Bitcoin dip – Crypto Roundup, Nov 29, 2021

eToro eToro 29.11.2021 12:02
MANA makes 25% gains on metaverse mania Bitcoin is bouncing back towards $58K after coronavirus uncertainty dashed prices on Black Friday. Traditional markets and crypto plunged together on news that another Covid-19 variant had been detected in South Africa, putting Bitcoin briefly below $54K. China’s latest crypto crackdown was also blamed for the downturn, and some analysts even pointed towards the death of crypto-trading hamster Mr. Goxx. Regardless of the cause, the dip was a buying opportunity for El Salvador president Nayib Bukele, who scooped up 100 discounted Bitcoin for the country’s treasury. Meanwhile, multiple altcoins proved to be immune to coronavirus panic. Basic Attention Token (BAT) bucked the downtrend to reach all-time highs of almost $2, while Metaverse token MANA added another 25% and Zcash made 18% gains. This Week’s Highlights MANA makes 25% gains as Grayscale forecasts $1 trillion metaverse Zcash maintains bullish momentum MANA makes 25% gains as Grayscale forecasts $1 trillion metaverse Metaverse tokens MANA and Enjin made 25% and 7% gains respectively over the last week, driven by continued optimism about the metaverse and blockchain gaming. Crypto asset manager Grayscale claimed on Thursday that the metaverse could one day deliver $1 trillion in annual revenue, following investment bank Morgan Stanley, which said that metaverse gaming and non-fungible tokens could grow to represent 10% of the total luxury goods market by 2030. Taking advantage of the optimism, memecoin Shiba Inu attempted to muscle in on the metaverse with a new gaming venture, but failed to capture the enthusiasm with prices falling almost 10%. Zcash maintains bullish momentum Since announcing its transition to Proof of Stake, Zcash has risen 65%, with a jump of 17% in the last week alone. The privacy coin’s momentum has been helped by Twitter commentators, with Digital Currency Group founder Barry Silbert tweeting about the cryptoasset, and whistleblower Edward Snowden praising Zcash as his favored alternative to Bitcoin. Much of the excitement around the cryptoasset revolves around the role it could play in Decentralized Finance (DeFi), with a recent report from Grayscale suggesting it could become the default privacy coin for the entire ecosystem. Week ahead Although uncertainty about the emerging coronavirus strain continues to loom over the market, Bitcoin’s rapid recovery could set the stage for another swing higher in the week ahead. In the world of altcoins, Binance Smart Chain is set to undergo a hard fork on Tuesday that could boost native cryptoasset BNB.
Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.11.2021 10:01
EURJPY breaks double bottom The safe-haven Japanese yen soars on news of a vaccine-resistant covid variant. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates weakness in the euro’s previous rebound. The pair has closed below last September’s low at 127.90, a major floor to keep price action afloat in the medium term. This is a bearish signal that the sell-off is yet to end with 127.00 as the next support. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may attract some buying interest. However, the bulls will need to lift 129.50 before a reversal could take shape. GBPUSD struggles to bounce back The pound continues on its way down against the US dollar over divergent monetary policy. The pair is hovering near a 12-month low around 1.3280. Sentiment remains bearish after a failed rebound above 1.3420. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. 1.3390 is the first hurdle ahead. Its breach would prompt the short side to cover and open the door to the daily resistance at 1.3510. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to 1.3200. GER 40 to test major floor The Dax 40 plunged as investors fret that new lockdowns could wreck the recovery. The gap below 15760 has forced leveraged buyers to bail out, stirring up volatility in the process. The momentum is typical of a catalyst-driven sell-off. Below 15150 the index is testing the psychological level of 15000. The RSI’s oversold situation has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in the demand zone. Further down, 14820 is a key floor to maintain the uptrend. 15530 has become the closest resistance in case of a rebound.
Hawkish broadside from Powell roils markets further

Hawkish broadside from Powell roils markets further

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 01.12.2021 13:32
Podcast 2021-12-01 10:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  The market administered yet another round of whiplash as very hawkish comments from Powell cement the Fed's direction shift that was just getting focus before derailed late last week by the omicron covid variant derailment, leaving market participants chopped to bits. We try to sort through the implications, noting weakening credit conditions as a key focus, as well as value versus growth themes, individual equity stories, and the next important macro data points, which will gain increasing attention if the omicron impact eventually fades.Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Ether is once again a step away from historic highs

Ether is once again a step away from historic highs

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.12.2021 11:50
The cryptocurrency market is developing its growth, which is now also supported by Bitcoin. In the last 24 hours, the capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies has risen by 2.7% to 2.66 trillion, while the first cryptocurrency has risen by 0.8%. At the same time, it is important to note the continued pressure on BTCUSD, which is being kept off the ground by financial market worries. On Tuesday, Powell acknowledged the inflation problem in the US and suggested abandoning the term "transitory", which he coined at the start of the year. For the markets, this means that the world's top central bank has stepped up the inflation warpath and become more hawkish, promising a higher degree of volatility for traditional markets. Among cryptocurrencies, this promises to have the greatest impact on bitcoin as it is the most populated by financial institutions. Likely due to volatility and Bitcoin's inability to move to sustained growth, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has once again been pushed down 6 points to 34. However, note that ETHUSD is up almost 12% in the last seven days, continuing to climb the ladder again step by step. Its current level of $4720 is an arm's length away from the historical highs set in November at $4840 and has been gaining steadily for the fourth day in a row. Here we see a classic market pattern: consolidation at an important level in September, a breakout and subsequent steady and methodical buying throughout October and the first half of November, and finally a period of correction and cooling off in November while maintaining significant levels. Now, the correction and consolidation look complete, and the ether looks set to rewrite historical highs. Among the fundamental global drivers behind this sentiment are improvements in the network itself and its applicability to working projects, as well as the balance between supply and demand for coins. In choosing between the leading currencies, the cryptocurrency world is betting on Ether as the future of cryptocurrency as a business, with bitcoin still being a good savings vehicle, but now becoming vulnerable to the turmoil of the traditional financial.
Stocks - More Volatility Following Hawkish Powell

Stocks - More Volatility Following Hawkish Powell

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 01.12.2021 15:12
  Stock prices were volatile on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 fell to the new local low. But today it may rebound again. but will the downtrend continue? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 1.90% on Tuesday, Nov. 30. The market went lower following testimonies from the Fed Chair Powell and the Treasury Secretary Yellen. On Monday the broad stock market retraced more than a half of its Friday’s sell-off, but yesterday it fell to the new local low of 4,560.00. Today it is expected to open 1.0% higher again, so we will see more short-term volatility. The nearest important support level is at 4,560-4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,650, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 retraced most of its early November advance, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Stronger Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday, as it didn’t extend a short-term downtrend. It remained above its Friday’s local low and above the 16,000 mark, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Got Close to the Record High Again Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend a week ago and it reached the new record high of $165.70. However, it retraced almost all of its intraday advance that day. On Friday it got back to a support level of around $157. And yesterday it got back to the all-time high, as it closed slightly above the $165 price level. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.0% higher this morning following an overnight rebound from the yesterday’s new short-term low. We will likely see an intraday consolidation following a higher opening. And for now, it looks like a consolidation within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term downtrend yesterday, but today it is expected to open higher again. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron

It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.12.2021 15:51
S&P 500 plunged on accelerated tapering intentions, and much of the risk-on sectors and commodities followed – even precious metals declined a little in sympathy. But where is the larger reasoning? If the Fed truly intends to taper faster in its belated fight against inflation, it‘s a question of not only markets throwing a tantrum, but of the real economy keeling over. Inflation is a serious problem, including a political one, and here come the Omicron demand-choking effects if the fear card gets played too hard. Thankfully, reports indicate that the alleged variant is merely more contagious and having comparatively milder effects. That‘s how it is usually turns out with mutations by the way – remember that before the number 30 frequently thrown around, shuts off thinking including in the markets. The world‘s economic activity didn‘t come to a standstill with Delta, and it appears such a policy route won‘t be taken with Omicron either. That‘s why I was telling you on Monday that any inflation reprieve the scary news buys, would likely turn out only temporary. Unless the Fed decides to make it permanent, which is what I am doubting based on its track record and the more rocky landscape ahead that I talked in mid Nov extensive article. For now, the Fed‘s pressure is real, and premarket rallies that are sold into during regular sessions, must be viewed with suspicion. It‘s not that we‘ve flipped into a (secular) bear market, but the correction is palpable and real – I‘m not looking for the habitual Santa Claus rally this year. Big picture, the precious metals resilience is a good sign, and return of cyclicals with commodities is the all-clear signal that I‘m however not expecting this or next week. Cryptos resilience is encouraging as much as various stock market ratios (XLY:XLP offers a more bullish view than XLF:XLU – I‘ve been covering these helpful metrics quite often through 2020), which makes me think we‘re in mostly sideways markets for now. At least as I told you on Monday, the (rational / irrational) fears started getting ignored by the markets, meaning we‘re on a gradually improving track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 isn‘t out of the hot water, and it‘s still just a close in the 4670s that would mark the end of peril to me. The financial sector has to turn, strength has to come to smallcaps simultaneously – the 500-strong index is still performing in a too risk-off way. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence isn‘t enough – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed to establish stronger stock market foundations. Powell just added to the risk-off posture in bonds, and I‘m looking keenly at the expected, ensuing (in)ability to absorb less loose monetary conditions. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are acting weak, but not overly weak. When the markets get fed up with having to bear the tapering / tightening (real and verbal) interventions, it would be gold and silver that rise first. Crude Oil Crude oil turned out indeed weakest of the weak when fear overruled everything. Capitulation is a process, and it‘s quite underway already in my view. The way black gold crashed, the way it would rise once the sky meaningfully clears. Copper Copper weakness is what I don‘t trust here as other base metals did quite better. But again, yesterday was an overreaction to the Fed news that it would discuss speeding up taper. Just discuss. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum holding relatively high ground, is a reason to think the risk-on scales would tip positive. While BTC is still correcting, I‘m looking for it to join Ethereum. Summary S&P 500, risk-on and commodities aren‘t yet on solid footing as Powell pronouncements outweighed the dissipating corona uncertainty. Either way, the effects on inflation would be rather temporary – inflation indicators clearly haven‘t topped yet as the implicit Fed admission of dropping the word temporary confirms. Once the tightening mirage gets a reality check in the economy and markets, look for precious metals to truly shine. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Copper upside remains despite months of inaction

Copper upside remains despite months of inaction

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 01.12.2021 16:26
Commodities 2021-12-01 15:00 Summary:  Industrial metals spent most of November trading sideways with concerns about demand being offset by tight market conditions, especially in aluminum and copper. In fact, the price has during these past few months, when worries about Chinese demand took centerstage, been trading relatively close to the average price seen since April. A behavior which in our view highlights a strong underlying demand for copper, not least considering the prospect for inelastic supply struggling to meet green transformation demand towards electrification. Industrial metals spent most of November trading sideways with concerns about demand being offset by tight market conditions, especially in aluminum and copper. Apart from two failed upside attempts in May and October, copper has since April stayed mostly rangebound not swaying too far away from its average price, at $9550 per tons in London and $4.35 per pound in New York. During the past few months copper has performed relatively well considering heightened worries about the economic outlook for China, and more specifically its property sector which has seen near defaults as well as a slump in home sales. Additional headwinds have been created by the stronger dollar and central banks beginning to focus more on inflation than stimulus. In order to counter Chinese economic growth concerns, Vice Premier Liu He has been out saying growth this year should exceed targets, and the government plans more support for business. High Grade Copper has been averaging $4.35 since April with the current action confined to a range between $4.2 and $4.5 while major support can be found in the $4 area. The lack of momentum in recent months has driven a sharp reduction in the speculative long held by hedge funds, a development that could trigger a significant amount of activity once the technical and/or fundamental picture becomes clearer. Against these mostly demand focused macroeconomic headwinds, we have at the same time been witnessing an unusual synchronised tightness in stock levels monitored by the major futures exchanges in London and Shanghai. Unusual in the sense that price arbitrage between the two exchanges often drive changes in stock levels from one exchange to the other. Recently however we have been witnessing levels fall at both exchanges, with aluminum and copper stockpiles at the LME falling to their lowest levels since 2007 and 2005 respectively. In fact, the six industrial metals traded on the LME are currently all trading in backwardation for the first time since 2007. A condition where spot prices trade higher than futures, and driven by the mentioned drop in inventories in response to a post-pandemic surge in demand as well as supply-chain disruptions. On the subject of supply, especially during the coming years when the green transformation will account for an increased proportion of global copper demand, planned mining taxes in Chile, the worlds biggest producers have raised the alarm bells. Politicians are looking for a bigger share of mining profits to help resolve inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic, and with a potential approval moving closer BHP Group has warned it could derail investments thereby making it harder to meet future demand, especially considering the mentioned need for copper towards electrification. Source: Bloomberg An example of increased copper demand driven by the green transformation are the number of finished and planned subsea interconnectors which are paramount for cutting emissions and boosting the effectiveness of renewable energy production. Increased volatility in the production of power from renewable sources such as wind and solar as opposed to traditional sources like coal and gas will continue to increase the need for large scale transmission capabilities of power between countries and regions. The cable below has been used in the now finished 720 kilometer North Sea Link between Norway and the UK, as well in the under-construction Viking link between Denmark and the UK. It carries as much as 1.45 Gigawatt (about the capacity of a nuclear reactor) with most of the 50 kg/meter weight coming from copper. Several other subsea links are planned over the coming years, and together with the need for increased capacity on the electrical grid to support the roll out of EV’s, demand for copper, the king of green metals, look set to increase over the coming years. Electrification and urbanisation will drive growth in copper wrote my colleague Peter Garnry in this update from November 19. In it he also offered a table of mining companies providing exposure to copper. The table below shows 16 mining companies with exposure to copper with Codelco, the largest copper producer in the world, absent from the list as the Chilean miner is only listed in Chile and thus not investable for our clients. The copper mining industry has delivered a median total return in USD of 132.6% over the past five years beating the global equity up 105% in the same period. The rising copper prices the past year driven by investors positioning themselves in green metals (defined as metals that will play a key role in the green transformation) which in turn has pushed up revenue in the industry by almost 40%. Sell-side analysts are generally bullish on copper miners with a median upside of 16% from current levels. In our view investors should select one or two copper miners to get exposure and avoid the ETFs on the industry as they are too broad-based and lack the pure exposure profile needed to play the copper market. As the table also show, there is no such thing as pure exposure to copper except for futures, options and CFDs on the underlying copper. The miner with the highest revenue exposure to copper is Antofagasta with 84.8% revenue share from copper extraction and refining. Most copper miners also extract gold and silver as part of their copper operations, and out of the 16 copper miners in our list, only 6 of these miners have more than 50% of revenue coming from copper extraction and refining.
FX Update: Powell is now an inflation fighter, not a punchbowl spiker

FX Update: Powell is now an inflation fighter, not a punchbowl spiker

John Hardy John Hardy 01.12.2021 16:30
Forex 2021-12-01 15:25 4 minutes to read Summary:  Fed Chair Powell cemented recent evidence that the Fed has changed its stripes from a punch bowl refiller for the economy and the labor market to an inflation fighter at large. The market is finding it tough to absorb this message, given the recent market choppiness and virus distractions, but interesting that the US dollar has not found more strength on this momentous pivot. FX Trading focus: Hawkish broadside from Powell Fed Chair Powell cemented the impression that the Fed has shifted firmly into inflation fighting mode with an appearance yesterday before a Fed panel. The rhetoric was direct and of a make-no-mistake variety. Powell said that the end of balance sheet expansion would likely wind down a few  months sooner than originally foreseen, even with the current omicron variant of covid concerns. He also spelled out that it is probably time to retire the word “transitory” when discussing inflation, ad said that the risk of higher inflation has increased. Perhaps most interesting was a comment that persistent higher inflation brought a risk to getting the labor market back to where it was pre-covid. It is crystal clear at this point that the Fed has pivoted to inflation-fighting and tightening and will move in that direction as quickly as it can until the inflation numbers improve markedly. Of course, the market was already adjusting to clear signs that the Fed is moving into a far more hawkish stance early last week, only to be sidelined viciously by the omicron variant worries in recent days. Were it not for that interlude, Fed expectations would likely be at new cycle highs as yesterday’s signals from Powell make the Fed shift as clear as day. As it is, we have only clawed back a majority of the 2022 hikes priced in pricing of Fed rate hikes, still some 8 basis points to go for end of year Fed pricing (the “omicron discount” being perhaps 15 basis points or more?). The two curious things are that the US yield curve continues to viciously flatten and the market continues to price the terminal Fed rate for the coming hiking cycle at 2.00%. The inability for the longer yields to lift higher recently may be reining in the USD upside for. The other indicator besides yield-curve shifts that is making waves here on my radar screen of financial conditions is the measure of corporate credit, where spreads have blown wider, as discussed over the last couple of episodes of the Saxo Market Call podcast. The bluntness from the Fed yesterday may have driven the particularly bad day for junk bonds as the new style from the Fed could lead investors in the riskiest debt to conclude that they may be allowed to twist in the breeze down the road if inflation levels stay high, rather than receiving endless bailouts that keep zombie companies in business and able to forever roll forward their debts. We are set up for an interesting 2022 that will likely look very different from 2021. The shift in Fed rhetoric will make the market extra-sensitive to US data and developments that impact inflation, from energy prices, to the CPI/PCE data itself and the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the usual nonfarm payrolls change focus. Today’s Beige Book could be interesting for anecdotal evidence from interviews with companies on their impression of supply constraints, wage adjustments and issues finding qualified workers, etc. Today’s November ADP Payrolls was another strong 500k+ as expected. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY was handcuffed by developments yesterday – on the one hand with the USD supported by a rise in Fed expectations, but on the other hand, JPY traders finding no fresh reason to bid up the JPY as the long end of the US yield curve remains pinned at quite low yields and there has been no shift in the Fed’s “terminal rate” – where the market sees the Fed rate hike cycle peeking out. So the price action bobbed well back above the 112.73 range pivot level that was broken yesterday, but has a steep wall to climb to threaten the 115.00+ cycle highs again, something that would likely require the entire Fed yield curve to lift, and more aggressively than expectations for policy normalization elsewhere. Source: Saxo Group Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthAgain, the market is finding the reaction function increasingly difficult to the recent jolts in inputs. Note the huge momentum shift in SEK, where the market overdid the recent squeeze, but the strength there will likely only improve once the euro bottoms and the outlook for EU yields and fiscal improves. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Well entrenched trends are few and far between, but the EURCNH and EURCHF downtrends stand out, with the latter’s lack of volatility after recent direction changes remarkable. The Swiss franc does well as a safe haven and does well because the SNB can’t be seen weakening the currency when inflation pressures are rising. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance
Saxo Bank 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Saxo Bank 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.12.2021 14:35
Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2022. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2022, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising.  It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus. Commenting on this year’s Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:   “The theme for 2022 Outrageous Predictions is Revolution. There is so much energy building up in our inequality-plagued society and economy. Add to that the inability of the current system to address the issue and we need to look into the future with a fundamental view that it’s not a question of whether we get a revolution but a more a question of when and how. With every revolution, some win and some lose, but that’s not the point—if the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward. A culture war is raging across the globe and the divide is no longer simply between the rich and the poor. It’s also the young versus the old, the educated class versus the less educated working class, real markets with price discovery versus government intervention, stock market buy-backs versus R&D spending, inflation versus deflation, women versus men, the progressive left versus the centrist left, virtual signalling on social media versus real changes to society, the rentier class versus labour, fossil fuels versus green energy, ESG initiatives versus the need to supply the world with reliable energy—the list go on. We collaborated globally on Covid vaccines in 2020 and 2021. Now we need a new Manhattan Project–-type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment. Such a move would unleash the most significant productivity cycle in history: we could desalinate water, make vertical farms feasible almost anywhere, increase computer powers to quantum states, and continue to explore new boundaries in biology and physics.” Remember that the world is forever evolving if at varying speeds, while business and political cycles are always finite.” The Outrageous Predictions 2022 publication is available here with headline summaries below: 1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future. Realising the inflationary threat from surging commodities prices and the risk of an economic train wreck due to the unrealistic timeline for the green energy transition, policymakers kick climate targets down the road. They relax investment red tape for five years for oil production and ten years for natural gas production, to encourage producers to ensure adequate and reasonably priced supplies that bridge the gap from the energy present to the low-carbon energy future. This development has already jacked up prices and price volatility, not only for energy, but also for industrial metals, most of which are needed in greater quantities for the green transformation push. On top of this, surging energy prices have spiked prices for diesel and especially fertiliser, important farming costs that raise concerns about the production of key food crops. Market impact: The iShares Stoxx EU 600 Oil & Gas ETF (Ticker: EXH1:xetr) surges 50 percent as the whole energy sector gets a new lease on life 2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles. Facebook has gone from being a vibrant hub of young people, to a platform for older “boomers” as young people would say. Young people are increasingly turned off by Facebook’s algorithms turning their social media experiences into that of homogenous feedback loops of identical content, or even worse, hateful and disinforming content. Facebook’s own research suggests that teens spend 2 to 3 times longer on TikTok than on Instagram (which is Facebook’s youngest social media asset), and that Snapchat is the preferred way to communicate with friends. A new company name (Facebook is now called Meta) and brand identity to separate and shield Instagram (its most valuable current asset), together with creating a new product tailored towards young people, is the exact same playbook tobacco companies have used for years. But in 2022, investors will realise that Meta is rapidly losing the young generation and thus the future potential and profitability of the company. In a desperate move, Meta tries to acquire Snapchat or TikTok while throwing billions of dollars into building the creepy Metaverse, which is aimed at surveilling users more directly than ever before and getting young people back into Meta’s universe of social media platforms, in the perceived wisdom that being a first mover is always best in technology. The plan struggles to take off as the young generation fails to sign up. Market impact: Facebook parent company Meta struggles, down 30 percent versus the broader market and is urged to spin off its components as separate entities, shattering Zuckerberg’s monopolistic dreams. 3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023. The chaotic 2020 US Presidential Election was a scary moment for many US institutions. The sitting president Donald J. Trump initially refused to conceded defeat in the election and complained that the election was stolen, a claim that was never seriously challenged in a court of law but one which had widespread sympathy among the Trump base. A crowd of hard-core believers in the stolen election conspiracy was encouraged by the President’s rhetoric to a sufficient degree to storm Capitol Hill and “stop the steal”, i.e., to prevent the election result from being made official on January 6, 2021, in a scene unprecedented in US history. Prior to this, and then again later in the hotly contested Senate run-off elections in Georgia, dedicated election officials—many of them Republican—were doing their duty to tally the real results while risking their life amidst threats—even death threats—from extremists. In 2022, the Republicans ensure that no such traditional duty-bound officials are in the “wrong” place, with all election-related positions filled by toe-the-line partisans ready to do anything to tilt the results to suppressing voter turnout. In the wake of the 2022 election, a handful of key Senate and House races come down to the wire and one or both sides move against certifying the vote, making it impossible for the new Congress to form and sit on its scheduled first day of January 3, 2023. Joe Biden rules by decree and US democracy is suspended as even Democrats also dig in against the Supreme Court that was tilted heavily by Trump. A full-blown constitutional crisis stretches over the horizon over the stand-off as 2023 gets under way. Market impact: extreme volatility in US assets, as US treasury yields rise and the USD drops on hedging against the existential crisis in the world’s largest economy and issuer of the world’s reserve currency of choice. 4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, the wages for the lower half of US incomes are rising at an annualised 15% clip as companies scramble to find willing and qualified workers who are increasingly selective due to a rising sense of entitlement as jobs are plentiful relative to the meagre availability of workers at all skill levels. The official US CPI reached a peak at 11.8% in February 1975. It wasn’t until the recession of 1980-82 and brutal policy rate increases to levels as high as 20% that inflation was finally killed. In 2022, the Federal Reserve and Fed chair Jerome Powell repeats the same mistake all over again as the post-Covid outbreak economy and especially the labour market are severely supply constrained, making a mockery of the Fed’s traditional models. Powell believes millions of Americans will return to work and fill some of the 10.4 million open job positions as Covid-19 fades. But this is plain wrong. Some have retired early due to the crisis and thus have permanently left the US workforce. The big difference between today and yesterday is that the pandemic has fuelled a great awakening of workers. Across sectors and income classes they realise they are now more empowered than ever. They demand a better experience: better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and a sense of purpose from work. Coupled with persistent inflationary pressures coming from the production side, the energy crisis and labour shortage, this results in unprecedented broad-based double-digit annualised wage increases by Q4. As a consequence, US inflation reaches an annualised pace above 15% before the start of 2023, for the first time since WWII. This prompts the Federal Reserve into a too-little, too-late move to tighten monetary policy faster in a desperate effort to tame inflation. But the central bank has lost credibility; it will take time to regain it. Market impact: extreme volatility in US equity and credit markets. The JNK high-yield ETF falls as much as 20% and the VIXM mid-curve volatility ETF soars as much as 70%. 5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes. The security umbrella provided by the US during the Cold War and afterwards over much of Eastern Europe is rapidly fading and threatens to fail entirely in the years ahead as the US looks east at far more serious economic and military rivals. French President Macron, backed by a Draghi moving to stave off Italy’s own rise of the populists, rolls out a vision for an “EU Superfund” that will address the three-fold priorities of defence, climate and the related clean energy transition. Given the EU’s aging population and heavy tax burdens, policymakers know that it will be impossible to finance the Superfund with higher taxes on incomes or other traditional tax revenues. Instead, France has a light-bulb moment as it seeks to overhaul its pension system and looks at Europe’s enormous pensions. It decides that all pensions for all workers above the age of 40 must allocate a progressively larger portion of their pension assets into Superfund bonds as they age. This allows new levels of fiscal stimulus in the EU even with the sleight-of-hand trick of hiding the spending in inflation and negative real returns on low-yielding Superfund bonds that are actually EU bonds in disguise. At the same the younger generation enjoys a stronger job market and less unfair tax burdens as the system proves such a success that income taxes are lowered progressively. Market impact: Bond yields harmonise across Europe, leading to German Bunds underperforming. EU defence, construction and new energy companies are some of the best performers. 6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies. Women are not willing to wait any longer. Tired of the lack of progress, 2022 sees a massive grass-roots effort based on social media platforms to force companies that break civil rights laws to address unfair and sexist, racist, ageist and ableist practices. Although women have been struggling with lower salaries, they have higher saving rates than men. Those savings will now come in handy as they decide to take the situation into their own hands and throw their considerable influence around in a #metoo movement in financial markets. In contrast to the often-nihilistic original Reddit Army, the Women’s Reddit Army will be more sophisticated, with women traders coordinating a long squeeze by shorting stocks of selected patriarch companies. At the same time, they will direct funds to companies with the best metrics on female representation in middle management and among executives. Instead of condemning the development, politicians worldwide welcome and support their cause, putting even more pressure on companies with outdated patriarchal attitudes, poor gender equality in pay, and under-representation of women on boards and in management to address the errors of their ways. Market impact: The movement gets real results as the broader market catches on to the theme and joins in, forcing targeted company prices sharply lower, which sees companies scrambling to change their ways. It marks the beginning of a gender parity renaissance in markets. 7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices. Countries reliant on imports for the majority of their energy inputs in a rapidly deglobalising world will need to move fast to strategically reorientate strategic alliances and secure long-term energy supplies. One such alliance could involve India, with its mighty technology sector, joining the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as non-voting member, or in some sort of free trade zone. This alliance would see a reduction in India’s energy insecurity as it secures long-term import commitments. Interregional trading zones will secure “closer to home” production and investment, combined with the security of reliable supplies from India’s point of view, and a reliable destination market from the GCC’s point of view. The alliance helps lay the groundwork for the GCC countries to plan for their future beyond oil and gas and for India to accelerate its development via huge new investments in infrastructure and improvements in agricultural productivity together with fossil fuel imports, bridging the way to a post-carbon longer-term future. Market impact: The Indian rupee proves far more resilient than its EM peers in a volatile year for markets. The bubbly Indian stock market corrects with other equity markets in early 2022 but proves a strong relative performer from the intra-year lows. 8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues. While the early days of NFTs have looked chaotic and dangerous for asset buyers, the outlook is bright for NFT technology. Not only does an NFT-based platform offer a new way to verify the ownership of rights, but also a way to distribute rights without intermediaries, i.e., a completely decentralised system obviating the need for a centralised platform. The use case for NFTs could prove particularly compelling in the next step for the technology for content generators in the music industry as musicians feel unfairly treated by the revenue sharing models of the current streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music. These models don’t guide individual subscribers’ fees to the actual music an individual subscriber listens to. Rather, all subscription fee revenues are aggregated and distributed based on every artist’s share of total streams. In addition, the platforms take a substantial cut, which together with the cut paid to labels is some 75 percent or more of the total revenue. In 2022, an NFT-based service takes hold and begins offering music from notable stars – perhaps the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers and Jason Derulo, all of whom have recently backed an effort to create a new blockchain-powered streaming platform. Other well-known artists begin pulling their music from the now “traditional” streaming platforms, which suddenly find themselves terminally disrupted. Investors see the eventual writing on the wall for podcasts, movies and other forms of digitisable contents as well. Market impact: Investors recognise that Spotify’s future is bleak, sending its shares down 33 percent in 2022. 9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind. In 2022, it is clear from funding priorities that hypersonics and space are the heart of a new phase of the deepening rivalry between the US and China on all fronts—economic and military. Other major powers with advanced military tech join in as well, likely including Russia, India, Israel and the EU. Hypersonic capabilities represent a game-changing threat to the long-standing military strategic status quo, as the technology brings asymmetric new defensive and offensive capabilities that upset the two massive pillars of military strategy of recent decades. The first is the potential for devastating hypersonic tech defence against the conventional attack capabilities of long-range bombing aircraft, as well as the so-called “deep water” navy of ships that can bring the fight to any corner of the globe without refuelling. The second pillar of the old Cold War era was the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) in the event of nuclear war, under which it was pointless to launch a nuclear war as long as there was still time for the opponent to launch an equally destructive ICBM counterattack from land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles. But the speed and agility of hypersonic tech introduces the belief that superior defence could thwart an attack entirely and even allow for new first-strike capabilities. Market impact: massive funding for companies like Raytheon that build hypersonic tech with space delivery capabilities and underperformance of “expensive conventional hardware” companies in the aircraft and ship-building side of the military hardware equation. 10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions. The year 2022 sees a breakthrough from a multi-factor approach, as a cocktail of treatments is put together that tweaks cell-level processes in order to extend their life and thus the life of the organism composed of those cells. It’s not cheap, but it’s effective and has already been demonstrated on laboratory mice containing human DNA, extending their lives some 30% and more. The prospect of a massive leap in human quality of life and life expectancy are huge wins for mankind but bring an enormous ethical and financial quandary. Imagine that almost everyone can look forward to living to an average age of 115 and more healthily. What would this mean for private and government pensions, or even the ability or desire to retire? And what about the cost to the planet if it is set to support billions more people, not to mention whether or not there is enough food to go around? And then there is the ethical question of whether it is humane to not make the cocktail available to everyone. In short, how would our value systems, political systems and planet cope?
December Monthly

December Monthly

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 02.12.2021 15:00
December 01, 2021  $USD, Macro The pandemic is still with us as the year winds down and has not yet become endemic, like the seasonal flu.  Even before the new Omicron variant was sequenced, Europe was being particularly hard hit, and social restrictions, especially among the unvaccinated, were spurring social strife.  US cases, notably in the Midwest, were rising, and there is fear that it is 4-6 weeks behind Europe in experiencing the surge.  Whatever herd immunity is, it has not been achieved.  Moreover, despite plenty of vaccines in high-income countries, inoculation efforts in many low-income countries won't begin in earnest until next year.   That said, the new variant has injected a new element into the mix, and it is with a heightened degree of uncertainty that we share our December outlook.  Given the unknowns, policymakers can choose the kind of error they are willing to make. They are trying to minimize their maximum regret.  The utmost regret is that the mutation is dangerous and renders the existing vaccines and treatment significantly less effective.  This will leave them vulnerable to accusations of over-reacting if the Omicron turns out to be a contagious but less deadly variation.   Meanwhile, there has been some relief to the supply chain disruptions.  Covid-related factory closures in Asia, the energy shortage, and port congestion are easing. Large US retailers have stocked up for the holiday shopping season, some of which chartered their own ships to ensure delivery. There are also preliminary signs that the semiconductor chip shortage may be past its worst.  Indeed, the recovery of the auto sector and rebuilding of inventories will help extend the economic expansion well into next year, even though fiscal and monetary policy are less supportive for most high-income countries.  The flash November US manufacturing PMI saw supplier delivery delays fall to six-month lows.   We assume that the US macabre debt ceiling ritual will not lead to a default, and even though it distorted some bill auctions, some resolution is highly probable.  The debate over the Build Back Better initiative, approved by the House of Representatives, will likely be scaled back by moderate Democratic Senators and Republicans.  Besides assessing the risks posed by the new variant, the focus in December is back on monetary policy.  Four large central banks stand out.  The Chinese economy has slowed the People's Bank of China quarterly monetary report modified language that signals more monetary support may be forthcoming.  Many observers see another reduction in reserve requirements as a reasonable step.  Unlike in the US and Europe, which saw bank lending dry-up in the housing market crisis (2008-2009), Beijing is pressing state-owned banks to maintain lending, including the property sector.   The Federal Reserve meets on December 15.  There are two key issues.  First, we expect the FOMC to accelerate the pace of tapering to allow it to have the option to raise rates in Q2 22.  The Fed's commitment to the sequence (tapering, hikes, letting balance sheet run-off) and the current pace of tapering deny the central bank the needed flexibility.  The November CPI will be reported on December 10.  The headline will likely rise to around 6.7%, while the core rate may approach 5%.  Second, the new "Summary of Economic Projections" will probably show more Fed officials seeing the need to hike rates in 2022.  In September, only half did.  The rhetoric of the Fed's leadership has changed.  It will not refer to inflation as transitory and is signaling its intention to act.  The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet the day after the FOMC.  The ECB staff will update its forecasts, and the key here is where it sees inflation at the end of the forecasting period.  In September, it anticipated that CPI would be at 1.5% at the end of 2023.  Some ECB members argued it was too low.   It may be revised higher, but the key for the policy outlook is whether it is above the 2% target.  We doubt that this will be the case.  While the ECB will likely announce that it intends on respecting the current end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program next March, its QE will persist. The pre-crisis Asset Purchase Program is expected to continue and perhaps even expand in Q2 22.  The "modalities" of the post-emergency bond-buying program, size, duration, and flexibility (self-imposed limits) will be debated between the hawks and doves.  With eurozone inflation approaching 5% and Germany CPI at 6%, the hard-money camp will have a new ally at the German Finance Ministry as the FDP leader Linder takes the post.  On the other hand, the Social Democrats will name a Weidmann's replacement at the head of the Bundesbank, and nearly anyone will be less hawkish.   While we correctly anticipated that the Bank of England would defy market expectations and stand pat in November, the December meeting is trickier.  The decision could ultimately turn on the next employment and CPI reports due 1-2 days before the BOE meeting.  The risk is that inflation will continue to accelerate into early next year and that the labor market is healing after the furlough program ended in September.  On balance, we suspect it will wait until next year to hike rates and finish its bonds purchases next month as planned.   Having been caught wrong-footed in November, many market participants are reluctant to be bitten by the same dog twice. As a result, the swaps market appears to be rising in about a 35% chance of a 15 bp move that would bring the base rate up to 25 bp.  Sterling dropped almost 1.4% (or nearly two cents) on November 4, the most since September 2020 when the BOE failed to deliver the hike that the market thought the BOE had signaled.   The combination of a strong dollar and the Fed tapering weighed emerging market currencies as a whole.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by about 4.5% in November, its third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the year-to-date loss to almost 10%.  It fell roughly 5.7% in 2020.  Turkey took the cake, though, with the lira falling nearly 30% on the month.  It had depreciated by 15% in the first ten months of the year.  This follows a 20% depreciation last year.  Ten years ago, a dollar would buy about 1.9 lira.  Now it can buy more than 13 lira.  The euro's weakness was a drag, and the geopolitical developments (e.g., Ukraine, Belarus) weighed on central European currencies. The central bank of Hungary turned more aggressive by hiking the one-week deposit rate by 110 bp (in two steps) after the 30 bp hike in the base rate failed to have much impact.  The forint's 3.1% loss was the most among EU members.   Colombian peso was the weakest currency in Latam, depreciating by almost 5%. It was not rewarded for delivering a larger than expected 50 bp rate hike in late October.  Bannockburn's GDP-weighted global currency index (BWCI) fell by nearly 1% in November, the largest monthly decline since June.  It reflected the decline of the world's largest currencies against the dollar.  Three currencies in the index proved resilient  On the GDP-weighted basis, China has immense gravity, with a 21.8% weighting (the six largest EM economies, including China, account for a 32.5% of the BWCI). It appreciated by about two-thirds of a percent. The Brazilian real managed to rise (~0.25%) too.  Since the day before the Omicron variant was sequenced, the Japanese yen gained a little more than 2%, reversing the earlier decline that had brought it to four-year lows.  It rose by  0.7% in November, making it the strongest currency in the index.  Among the major currencies, the Australian dollar fell the most, declining about 5.2%.  The Canadian dollar was next, with around a 3% loss.   As it turns out, the dollar (Dollar Index) recorded its low for the year as shocking events were unfolding in Washington on January 6.  The bottomed against the yen and euro the same day.   The greenback did not bottom against the Australian dollar until February, but it took it until early June to put in a low against sterling and the Canadian dollar.  The BWCI peaked in early June and, by the end of last month, had retreated by about 2.7%.  We suspect it may decline by another 2%, which would return it the levels of late 2019.  That, in turn, implies the risk of a stronger dollar into the first part of next year.     Dollar:  The jump in US CPI to above 6%, and a strong sense that it is not the peak, spurred speculation that the Federal Reserve would likely accelerate the pace of tapering at the December meeting. Several Fed officials seemed sympathetic, including San Francisco President Daly, who is perceived to be a dove. The minutes of the November meeting underscored the central bank's flexibility over the pace of tapering.  At the same time, most of the high-frequency data for October came in stronger than expected, lending credence to ideas that after a disappointing Q3, the world's largest economy is accelerating again in Q4.  The divergence of monetary policy and the subsequent widening interest rate differentials is the primary driver of expectations for dollar appreciation against the euro and yen.  The market had been leaning toward three rates hikes in 2022 before news of the new Covid mutation emerged and trimmed the odds.  Powell was renominated for a second term at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Brainard was nominated to be Vice-Chairman.  There is still the Vice-Chair for supervision and an empty governor seat for President to Biden to fill.  In addition to the changes in leadership, the rotation of the voting members of the FOMC brings in a somewhat more hawkish bias next year.   Euro:  In contrast with the US, eurozone growth is set to slow in Q4. After two quarters that growth exceeded 2% quarter-over-quarter, growth is likely to moderate to below 1% in Q4 21 and Q1 22.  Food and energy are driving inflation higher.  The EC continues to negotiate with the UK over changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.  The dispute over fishing licenses and migrant crossing of the channel are also unresolved sources of tension with the UK. Tensions between the EC and Poland/Hungary over the rule of law, judicial independence, and civil liberties have also not been settled.  As was the case in the spring, Russia's troop and artillery movement threatened Ukraine, though the tension on the Poland/Belarus border has eased.  The ECB's leadership continues to maintain the price pressures are related to the unusual set of circumstances but are ultimately temporary.  Its December 16 meeting, the last one before Bundesbank President Weidmann steps down, is critical. In addition to confirming the end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program in March 2022, and the expansion of the Asset Purchase Program, the ECB staff will update its inflation forecasts.  The focus here is on the 2023 CPI projection of 1.5%.  There was a push back against it in September, and a slight upward revision is likely. Nevertheless, it will probably remain below the 2% target.  The swaps market is pricing in a 25 bp hike in 2023.   (November indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)   Spot: $1.1335 ($1.1560) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1375 ($1.1579)  One-month forward  $1.1350 ($1.1568)    One-month implied vol  7.1%  (5.1%)         Japanese Yen:  Japan has a new prime minister who has put together a large fiscal stimulus package that will help fuel the economic recovery that had begun getting traction since the formal state of emergency was lifted at the end of September.  After a frustratingly slow start, the inoculation efforts have started bearing fruit, with vaccination rates surpassing the US and many European countries.  Unlike most other high-income countries, Japan continues to experience deflationary pressures.  Food and energy prices may be concealing it in the CPI measure, but the GDP deflator in Q2 and Q3 was  -1.1%. However, the BOJ does not seem inclined to take additional measures and has reduced its equity and bond-buying efforts.  The exchange rate remains sensitive to the movement of the US 10-year note yield, which has chopped mostly between 1.50% and 1.70%. With a couple of exceptions in both directions, the greenback has traded in a JPY113-JPY115 range.  The emergence of the new Covid mutation turned the dollar back after threatening to break higher.  A convincing move above the JPY115.50 area would likely coincide with higher US rates and initially target the JPY118 area.    Spot: JPY113.10 (JPY113.95)       Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY113.30 (JPY112.98)      One-month forward JPY113.00 (JPY113.90)    One-month implied vol  8.2% (6.4%)   British Pound:  Sterling never fully recovered from disappointment that the Bank of England did not hike rates in early November.  Market participants had understood the hawkish rhetoric, including by Governor Bailey, to signal a hike.  The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures plummeted by 30 bp by the end of the month, and sterling has not seen $1.36, let alone $1.37, since then.  Indeed, sterling chopped lower and recorded new lows for the year in late November near $1.3200.  Growth in the UK peaked in Q2 at 5.5% as it recovered from the Q1 contraction.  It slowed to a 1.3% pace in Q3 and looks to be slowing a bit more here in Q4.  The petty corruption scandals and ill-conceived speeches by Prime Minister Johnson have seen Labour move ahead in some recent polls.  An election does not need to be called until May 2024, but the flagging support may spur a cabinet reshuffle.  The next important chart point is not until around $1.3165 and then the $1.30 area, which holds primarily psychological significance.       Spot: $1.3300 ($1.3682)    Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3375 ($1.3691)  One-month forward $1.3315 ($1.3680)   One-month implied vol 7.5% (6.8%)      Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar appreciated by almost 2.4% in October and gave it all back, plus some in November.  Indeed, the loss was sufficient to push it fractionally lower for the year (-0.4%), though it remains the best performing major currency against the US dollar.   The three major drivers of the exchange rate moved against the Canadian dollar last month.  First, its two-year premium over the US narrowed by 17 bp, the most in four years.  Second, the price of January WTI tumbled by around 18.2%.  Commodity prices fell more broadly, and the CRB Index snapped a seven-month rally with a 7.8% decline.  Third, the risk appetites faltered is reflected in the equity markets. The Delta Wave coupled with the new variant may disrupt growth.  Still, the swaps market has a little more than two hikes discounted over the next six months.   The government is winding down its emergency fiscal measures, but the spring budget and election promises mean that the fiscal consolidation next year will be soft.     Spot: CAD1.2775 (CAD 1.2388)  Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CAD1.2685 (CAD1.2395) One-month forward CAD1.2770 (CAD1.2389)    One-month implied vol 7.2% (6.2%)      Australian Dollar:  The Australian dollar fell by more than 5% last month, slightly less than it did in March 2020.  It did not have an advancing week in November after rallying every week in October.  Australia's two-year premium over the US was chopped to less than 10 bp in November from nearly 28 bp at the end of October.  The Reserve Bank of Australia pushed back against aggressive rate hike speculation.   The unexpected loss of jobs in October for the third consecutive month took a toll on the Australian dollar, which proceeded to trend lower and recorded the low for the year on November 30, slightly below $0.7065.  A break of $0.7050 would initially target $0.7000, but convincing penetration could spur another 2-2.5-cent drop.  The 60-day rolling correlation between- changes in the Australian dollar and the CRB commodity index weakened from over 0.6% in October to below 0.4% in November. The correlation had begun recovering as the month drew to a close.       Spot:  $0.7125 ($0.7518)        Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7195 ($0.7409)      One-month forward  $0.7135 ($0.7525)     One-month implied vol 9.7%  (9.1%)        Mexican Peso:  The broadly stronger US dollar and the prospects of more accelerated tapering weighed on emerging market currencies in November, but domestic considerations also weighed on the peso.   The Mexican peso fell by around 4.1%, the most since March 2020.  The economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% in Q3.  There is little fiscal support to speak of, while monetary policy is becoming less accommodative too slowly compared with some other emerging markets, such as Brazil.  Price pressures are still accelerating, and the bi-weekly CPI rose above 7% in mid-November. The swaps market discounts nearly a 25 bp hike a month for the next six months.  The government's policies, especially in the energy and service sectors, are not attractive to investors.  President AMLO dealt another blow to investor confidence by retracting the appointment of former Finance Minister Herrera for his deputy to head up the central bank starting in January.  This is seen potentially undermining one of the most credible institutions in Mexico.  Lastly, Mexico's trade balance has deteriorated sharply in recent months and through October has recorded an average monthly trade deficit of nearly $1.2 bln this year.  In the same period, in 2020, it enjoyed an average monthly surplus of almost $2.5 bln, and in the first ten months of 2019, the average monthly trade surplus was a little more than $150 mln.     Spot: MXN21.46 (MXN20.56)   Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast  MXN21.23 (MXN20.42)   One-month forward  MXN21.60 (MXN20.65)     One-month implied vol 14.9% (9.6%)      Chinese Yuan:  The Chinese yuan has been remarkably stable against the US dollar, and given the greenback's strength, it means the yuan has appreciated sharply on a trade-weighted basis.  Going into the last month of the year, the yuan's 2.6% gain this year is the best in the world.  Chinese officials have signaled their displeasure with what it sees as a one-way market.  At best, it has orchestrated a broadly sideways exchange rate against the dollar, mainly between CNY6.37 and CNY6.40. The lower end of the dollar's range was under pressure as November drew to a close.   Even though the Chinese economy is likely to accelerate from the near-stagnation in Q3 (0.2% quarter-over-quarter GDP), it remains sufficiently weak that the PBOC is expected to consider new stimulative measures.  It last reduced reserves requirements in July, and this seems to be the preferred avenue rather than rate cuts.  Yet, given the interest rate premium (the 10-year yield is around 2.85%), record trade surpluses ($84.5 bln in October), portfolio inflows, and limited outflows, one would normally expect a stronger upward pressure on the exchange rate.    Spot: CNY6.3645 (CNY6.4055) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CNY6.38 (CNY6.4430)  One-month forward CNY6.3860 (CNY6.4230)    One-month implied vol  3.5% (3.5%)    Disclaimer
Sundial Growers News and Forecast: SNDL back up in premarket after devastating 9% drop

Sundial Growers News and Forecast: SNDL back up in premarket after devastating 9% drop

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.12.2021 17:11
SNDL shares fell 9% on Wednesday as the entire sector becomes less attractive. Sundial is still up 19% YTD but down 41% since November 12 high. Indiana and Germany mull further legalization. Sundial Growers (SNDL) stock dropped another 9% to $0.5655 on Wednesday. This arrives after the 2.1% fall in Tuesday's session. SNDL stock has dropped 41% since mid-November's range high, which was a product of better than expected Q3 earnings. The cannabis grower and distributor saw its stock rebound 2.7% to $0.5810 in Thursday's premarket. Sundial Growers (SNDL) Stock News: Indiana, Germany next on the list for possible legalization The Indiana Democratic Party has announced its intent to push for the legalization of cannabis on both the medical and recreational front. As such, it is holding the first of several community meetings in the Midwest state next week to receive public input. Germany's new coalitional government has signalled in recent days that it intends to legalize cannabis for recreational use. The central European country is already the world's largest medical marijuana market. Kentucky State Rep. Nima Kulkarni (D) has filed bills that would work to legalize cannabis in her state. The first bill would decriminalize the growing and sale of small amounts of marijuana. The second bill would allow those over 21 years of age to possess, buy or sell up to one ounce of marijuana and grow as many as five plants for personal use. There is no word yet on whether or not the newfound takeover king of Canada's cannabis industry will announce yet another acquisition. Since the beginning of the year, Sundial has used its own shares to buy up multiple assets. It began the year by acquiring cannabis retailer Inner Spirit for C$131 million. It bought Canadian liquor distributor Alcanna for C$346 million. Alcanna owns two-thirds of Nova Cannabis, a retail operation that should drive future revenue growth. Nova Cannabis owns more than 60 cannabis retail shops in Canada. With more than C$500 million still on its balance sheet, many observers think the shopping spree is not yet over as Sundial seeks to grow itself via acquisition. If Sundial again issued new shares to pay for another acquisition instead of its cash, then-current investors would be even further diluted. This concern may be driving the current sell-off in the share price. SNDL key statistics Market Cap $1.2 billion Price/Earnings 5 Price/Sales 25 Price/Book 1 Enterprise Value $737 million Operating Margin -142% Profit Margin 0% 52-week high $3.96 52-week low $0.42 Short Interest 15% Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target Hold, $1.01   Sundial Growers (SNDL) Stock Forecast: Stock price headed to $0.50 On Wednesday, SNDL shares broke through long-term support from October 6 just above $0.61. This means the stock has little if any support until $0.50. From Wednesday's story: "If SNDL breaks this level to close below $0.60, then $0.50 is the next support. The stock danced around this level from December 2019 through January 2020. Tuesday saw a brief low below October 6, so expect the break lower to happen again." Though the stock is up about 2.7% in the premarket on Thursday, FXStreet expects it to keep tumbling. The 20-day moving average crossed over the 9-day moving average at $0.71 on Monday, meaning that level is the price to beat in order for bulls to ride to the rescue. Above here is only the mid-November swing high at $0.95 where the stock faced resistance two sessions in a row. XCAN, the S&P/TSX Cannabis Index, is down 34% year to date, while SNDL is up 17%. SNDL 1-day chart
The coronavirus pandemic has changed many things around the world.

The coronavirus pandemic has changed many things around the world.

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.12.2021 18:42
From an investor's perspective, volatility in the financial markets has never been so high. On the other hand, from the consumer point of view, prices did not change so dramatically in such a short time before. Where do the paths of investors and consumers cross? This usually takes place on the commodity market, and the most important raw material is, of course, crude oil and its processed products. From negative prices to nearly $ 100 a barrel The arrival of COVID-19 has led to unprecedented anomalies in the oil market. At one point, the price of a barrel of oil dropped significantly below zero. Due to restrictions around the world, many people have stopped traveling, flying or even going to shops. At one point, crude oil demand fell by as much as 1/3, or roughly 30 million barrels a day. Due to the huge disproportion between supply and demand, the organization of oil-exporting countries, i.e. OPEC, together with other important countries, decided to jointly limit production in order to restore the normal price situation on the market. Production restrictions by the OPEC cartel and other producers such as Russia continue to this day. In the meantime, however, measures have been taken to stimulate the economy after the coronavirus stagnation. Tons of cash poured from central banks and governments, leading to a significant recovery. There was a fear that oil might be running out, which is why OPEC + decided to moderately restore production. However, this process turned out to be too slow to meet market expectations, resulting in a 100% increase in prices. There was even speculation that the price would rise to $ 100 a barrel, which was a problem for consumers in the past. Too high prices could have curtailed demand. The coronavirus continues to haunt markets In recent months, we witnessed several coronavirus waves and limited restrictions. They did not have any real impact on the market, besides production expectations. Usually, the sell-off of riskier assets, such as oil, lasted about 2 weeks. In view of the next expected wave of Covid-19, OPEC + decided not to increase production. It turned out that the group was right. The Omicron variant suddenly impacted ordinary people and investors. Black Friday brought a huge discount not only in stores, but also in the financial markets. Crude oil fell by 15% in one session. The risk of imposing further restrictions, similar to those from the first lockdown, hit investors' moods. If you look at Austria, where another lockdown was introduced, the mobility dropped well below levels which we observed a few weeks ago, or even before the first wave of the pandemic. If current vaccines prove to be ineffective against Omicron, travel will be reduced, flights will be suspended, people will remain at home and the demand for oil will decrease. The vast majority of the population would prefer much cheaper oil, but not OPEC +. If the group already sees a clear oversupply of oil in Q1 2022, then with an additional decline in demand due to Omicron, further OPEC + actions are possible. Will we pay less at gas stations? Probably yes. However, it must be remembered that the price of gasoline depends not only on the price of crude oil. The price components are in most cases: Crude oil Refining margin Distribution and Marketing Taxes In the United States, the share of crude oil in the cost of fuel is as high as 50%. On the other hand, in non-oil producing countries, distribution costs and taxes account for a much larger share. Therefore, even if prices are now 25% lower compared to the high of the current bull market, it will lower fuel prices by just a few percent. That is why some countries decide to take other steps, such as reducing VAT or excise duty. What's next for oil? The world was very scared of expensive oil, but the seasonality still points to limited demand at the beginning of the new year. In such a case, the growth dynamics would be slowed down anyway. That is why we should not expect major efforts from OPEC +. On the other hand, the group would like to keep prices around $ 70-80 per barrel, which allows long-term planning of further mining projects. Therefore, in the future, we should expect further action from OPEC +, which will be aimed at keeping the price in this range.
RBA Jettisons Yield Curve Control but Continues to Resist Market Pressure

RBA Jettisons Yield Curve Control but Continues to Resist Market Pressure

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 03.11.2021 10:54
Overview: The third record close of the S&P 500 failed to lift Asia Pacific and European shares today.  In Asia, the large bourses fell, except South Korea, which rallied a little more than 1%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is threatening to snap a three-day advance, while US index futures are soft.  The US 10-year yield is firm, around 1.56%.  European bonds are rallying.  Peripheral yields are off 8-9 bp, while core rates are 3-5 lower.  The Reserve Bank of Australia formally abandoned its yield-curve control, and the local debt market was quiet, but the Australian dollar is selling off and dragging the other dollar-bloc currencies lower.  Only the yen, among the majors, is gaining on the greenback.  Emerging market currencies are faring better, led by Asian currencies and most central and eastern European currencies.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is rising for the first time in five sessions.  Gold continues to consolidate within the range set before the weekend (~$1771-$1801) but is a bit softer on the day.  Oil prices are firm, and the December WTI contract is at the upper end of the $80-$85 range that has prevailed since mid-October.  Copper initially moved higher but reversed lower, and a break of $432 could signal another two percent decline.   Asia Pacific The Reserve Bank of Australia formally jettisoned its yield-curve control of targeting the April 2024 bond yield at 10 bp.  The market expected this after the RBA had been missing in action as the yield soared.  Today, the on-the-run 3-year yield fell six basis points after falling 21 yesterday.  It has now returned below 1%.  Governor Lowe did not fully capitulate but is trying to hold on to a middle ground.  He said the central bank will be patient on rates, and it is still plausible not to raise rates until 2024. However, he acknowledged rates could be lifted in 2023.  The swaps market is pricing in almost 80 bp of tightening over the next 12 months, with a 10 bp hike seen in six months.   European and American equities have recovered from the wobble in mid-September that sparked fear that Evergrande's losses would trigger a Lehman-like event.  Yet, the problem with Chinese property developers continues, even though Evergrande took advantage of its 30-day grace period, it serviced its debt.  China's high yield bond market is dominated by the property development sector.  The yields rose for eight consecutive sessions through yesterday and briefly rose above 20% last week.  Estimate debt servicing costs amount to around $2 bln this month.  House sales and prices are falling, a separate challenge to the economy than the energy crunch and high commodity prices.  It is still unclear whether Chinese officials are prepared to take more decisive action to support the economy, like a cut in reserve requirements.  New economic initiatives may emerge from the Communist Party's Central Committee meeting (November 8-11).  Officially it will focus on the achievements in preparation for the 20th Congress next year that will likely confirm another term for President Xi but possibly shuffle other senior posts.   The dollar rose to almost JPY114.45 yesterday and has come back offered today.  It has slipped below the 20-day moving average (~JPY113.55) for the first time since September 23.  Last week's low was closer to JPY113.25.  A break of JPY113.00 could signal losses toward JPY112.60 initially.  The price action is lending credence to the JPY114.50-JPY115.00 being the top of the new range. The lower end of the range is less clear.  The Australian dollar's 4% rally led the majors last month, but it stalled near the 200-day moving average (~$0.7555) and is breaking down today.  It has taken out last week's lows (~$0.7465) marginally, but the downside momentum has continued in the European morning.  There is near-term scope toward $0.7435 and maybe $0.7410.   The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.4009, firmer than the median (Bloomberg) forecast of CNY6.3986. The gap was slightly wider than it has been.  The last time the gap was more than 20 pips was October 20. So if it is a protest, it is still faint. Meanwhile, stricter virus curbs took a toll on Chinese equities. The greenback has risen above CNY6.40 on an intraday basis but continues to struggle to sustain it on a closing basis.   Europe The EMU final manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than the preliminary estimate, owing to a softer than expected Spain reading and a downward revision in Germany.  The aggregate stands at 58.3, down from 58.5 initially and 58.6.  It is the fourth consecutive decline, but it can hardly be considered weak.  Germany's manufacturing PMI was lowered to 57.8 from the 58.2 preliminary projection and 58.4 in September.  The French reading was tweaked up to 53.6 from 53.5.  It is still down from 55.0 and is the fifth straight loss.  Spain disappointed with a 57.4 report.  It was projected to be unchanged at 58.1, which seemed optimistic from the get-go.  Italy offered an upside surprise.  Its manufacturing PMI rose to 61.1 from 59.7.  Economists had expected some slippage.   Some pressure on the euro appeared to be coming from the cross against the Swiss franc.  Since the Fed met in September through the end of last week, the euro fell about 3.35% against the franc. Sight deposits rose steadily in October after falling in the first half of September.  Last week's increase was the most in two months as the euro broke below CHF1.08 for the first time since  May 2020. The rise in sight deposits is consistent with stepped-up intervention by the Swiss National Bank.  Yesterday, the euro fell against the Swiss franc, even as it rose against the dollar.  Clearly, the intervention is not arresting the euro's weakness. SNB is more likely moderating the decline.   Moreover, if the SNB also seeks to maintain a certain currency allocation of its reserves, it needs to acquire dollars after acquiring euros.  And if it does not want to grow reserves like Japan or China, it will sell some of the euros for dollars, minimizing the intervention effect on reserve accumulation.  The value of the SNB's reserves declined slightly in the year through September.    The pace of the euro's decline against the franc has accelerated in the past two sessions and closed below the lower Bollinger Band (two standard deviations below the 20-day moving average) for the second consecutive session.  Last year's low was set near CHF1.05 and yesterday, the euro pushed briefly through CHF1.0550.  It is now near CHF1.0570. The next technical support may be around CHF1.0250. However, speculators in the futures market see it differently.   They have the largest net short franc position (~19.3k contracts) since December 2019 and the smallest gross longs (~1245 contacts) since 2003.   French President Macron is holding back from imposing retaliatory measures against the UK over the fishing license dispute.  Reports suggest that Jersey is considering granting temporary licenses to French trawlers.  Separately, despite some confusing gas flows yesterday (from Germany to Poland), Russia says Putin's promise to boost gas shipment to Europe starting next week, after Gazprom completely rebuilding its domestic inventories, remains intact.  Look for results shortly of the auctions for pipeline capacity.   After falling a little more than 1% before the weekend, the euro bounced back yesterday and managed to close above $1.16. Follow-through buying was limited to about $1.1615, but it has struggled to sustain the positive momentum.  There is an option for 1.8 bln euros at $1.1585 that expires today.  A break signals a test on nearby support seen in the $1.1540-$1.1560 area.  Last week's low was about $1.1535, and the year's low is closer to $1.1525.  Sterling is off for the third consecutive session.  It reached $1.3630, the lowest level since October 14, which is about the (50%) retracement objective of last month's rally.  Some sales may have been related to the GBP316 mln option at $1.3650 that expires today.  The next (61.8%) retracement is by $1.3575.  America Today is the quietest day of the week for North American economic data. However, there is one feature, monthly autos sales.  Due to the supply chain disruptions, especially semiconductor chips, auto production has been crushed, and by extension, auto sales.  This is not limited to the US by any means.   Yesterday, Japan reported that October auto sales are off slightly more than 30% year-over-year in October. European auto registrations, a proxy for sales, were down 23.1% year-over-year in September.  Last week's Q3 GDP showed that growth was halved to 4% but the problems in the auto sector.  In September, US auto sales were about 25.5% below September 2020 sales.  Bloomberg's survey found a median forecast for October sales of 12.5 mln vehicles (seasonally adjusted annual basis), which would be the first increase since April.  Cox Automotive warns of another decline to 11.8 mln vehicles. The US Treasury unexpectedly boosted its Q4 borrowing needs to about $1.02 trillion, or around $312 bln more than it anticipated in August.  It appears to be largely a function of adjusting its cash balances and the calculations around the debt ceiling.  It is projecting Q1 22 borrowing needs at less than half of the Q4 sum.  Of course, it is assuming that the debt ceiling will be raised or suspended. Still, tomorrow's quarterly refunding announcement is expected to reduce its coupon offerings for the first time since 2016.  Separately, but not totally unrelated, the Democratic Party is still struggling to agree on the infrastructure initiative.   The US dollar continues to consolidate against the Canadian dollar but is enjoying a firmer tone today.  The Bank of Canada met on October 27, and it surprised the market by ending its bond-buying program and acknowledging the risk of an earlier hike.  The US dollar covered a range of roughly CAD1.2300 to CAD1.2435.  It has remained in that range since then. We note that speculators in the futures market switched to a net long position for the first time since early September in the week through last Tuesday.  The greenback is knocking on initial resistance in the CAD1.2400-CAD1.2410 area, and a break could signal a move toward CAD1.2430-CAD1.2450.  An option for about $900 mln expires tomorrow at CAD1.2450.  The greenback has a five-day rally in tow against the Mexican peso.  Earlier today, it pushed above last month's high (~MXN20.90), but it has stalled.  It is trading little changed on the session around MXN20.8500 as the North American session is about to start.   Still, unless it can break below MXN20.80, we look for higher levels.  That said, the pace of the dollar's rally is threatening the upper Bollinger Band (~MXN20.95)
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.12.2021 09:42
XAUUSD tests key support Gold treads water as markets await US jobs data release. The metal remains under pressure after it failed to maintain bids above 1780. Sellers are testing the daily support at 1760. A bearish breakout would shatter hopes of a swift rebound and send the price to last September’s low at 1725. That move could then threaten the integrity of the uptrend on a longer timeframe. 1806 is a fresh resistance and sellers could be waiting to double down at a better price. On the upside, a bullish breakout may propel the metal to 1845. EURUSD attempts bullish reversal The euro recoups losses as traders reposition ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish push. The pair has found support near June 2020’s lows around 1.1190. Then successive breaks above 1.1270 and 1.1370 have prompted short interests to bail, paving the way for a potential reversal. 1.1460 next to the 30-day moving average would be the target and its breach may turn sentiment around. 1.1240 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. US 500 heads towards daily support The S&P 500 continues on its way down as investors jump ship amid the omicron scare. The latest rebound has been capped by 4650, a sign that the bears are in control of short-term price action. A combination of pessimism and lack of buying interest means that the index is stuck in a bearish spiral. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as intraday sellers cover their positions. 4450 at the origin of a previous bullish breakout would be the next target. 4360 is a second line of defense that sits in a daily demand zone.
Bridge Too Far

Bridge Too Far

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.12.2021 16:36
S&P 500 gave up sharp intraday gains on the first Omicron patient in CA. Corona packing punch still, and sending TLT far above yesterday‘s highs while the dollar remained unchanged. That‘s as risk-off as can be on a little surprising headline – the key difference is though that the Fed doesn‘t have the back of buy the dippers this time. The accelerated taper noises coupled with demand destruction thanks to Omicron, is delivering an inflation repreive. Make no mistake though, should demand be choked off too hard, fresh stimulus would have to come – for now in the heat increasingly being turned on, practically all asset classes suffer to varying degrees. The market isn‘t yet at a stage of sniffing out fresh stimulus countering the destructive policy effects which are being felt currently. Economic activity around the world hasn‘t been hampered, but markets are willing to err on the pessimistic side. For now and still – only when the riskier debt instruments such as HYG turn up to deal with the prior downswing, would be a reason to cheer for animal spirits returning. That idea sounds though hollow at this time. The bears have the upper hand unless proven otherwise – that is, by a close in the 4670s. Which is what the title says... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 breaking below the 50-day moving average, and taking time consolidating below, isn‘t bullish at all. The reversal was broad based, arguably hitting value more. Yes, market breadth is dismal. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence is gone – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed first to make stock market upswings trustworthy. It remains unclear how much would HYG be able to rebound when quality debt instruments cool off. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness remains, but isn‘t convincing enough to short the market, no. The coming reversal to the upside would be ferocious, but we aren‘t there yet. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is slowing down, and it‘s more than black gold that‘s looking for direction here – this concerns the commodities complex as such. I‘m looking for copper to show the way, and oil to follow. Copper Copper is sitting at a rising support line, undecided yet whether to take the Fed and Omicron threats seriously or not. It‘s wait and see for now, but the bullish side has the medium-term upper hand. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are cautious as well, but the bears are looking for an ambush – let‘s see how far they can get. Summary The ugly S&P 500 close concerns both value and tech – and there was no premarket upswing to speak of. The bears have the upper hand for today as markets look to be in the phase of sell first, ask questions later. Any reversal (in stocks or commodities) has to be accompanied by a credible upswing in riskier bonds, ideally with money coming out of the dollar as well. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Destruction unfolds beneath the surface in equities

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.12.2021 10:23
Podcast 2021-12-03 10:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  Equities were looking to skid further yesterday but mustered a comeback erasing the prior day's decline, but underneath the rebound overall in equities we observe outright destruction across many key bubble stock names. Evidence of this destruction was well on display in DocuSign plunging 30% in extended trading on a minor miss on revenue for Q4. We also discuss the market's pricing on interest rate hikes next year before cuts showing that the market has difficulties believing in higher interest rates over a longer period. On commodities we highlight the recent rebound in oil despite OPEC+ intentions to lift production and the recent slump in natural gas prices in the US on mild weather. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
FX Update: Omicron whiplash for USDJPY

FX Update: Omicron whiplash for USDJPY

John Hardy John Hardy 29.11.2021 13:42
Forex 2021-11-29 13:00 4 minutes to read Summary:  The Friday meltdown in USDJPY and JPY crosses was all about position squaring as we had just come from a place of anticipating a more hawkish shift from central banks, particularly the US Fed. The sense of whiplash was most acute in USDJPY, which had just been up testing multi-year highs before the deleveraging across markets on the new omicron covid variant clouding the outlook. FX Trading focus: Narrative whiplash for JPY traders on omicron variant concerns The news of the new omicron variant of covid could not have come at a more difficult time for the market to absorb for at least two reasons. First, of course, was the poor liquidity when US markets were closed Thursday and only open part of Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Second was that we had just earlier the same week seen Fed Chair Powell and Brainard elevating the relative focus and position of grappling with inflation in their acceptance speeches, which had sent Fed rate hike expectations to new highs for the cycle early last week before the news hit. That ratcheting up of Fed rate anticipation had helped take USDJPY to new highs since early 2017 above 115.00 and EURUSD to new lows below 1.1200. But the positioning build-up in USDJPY has been far more extreme and the reaction in JPY crosses on Friday was fully in fitting with the JPY’s old status as a safe haven. Note that AUDJPY had its worst single-day drop since the heart of the pandemic outbreak panic in March of last year, while EURJPY has poked below the important 128.00 area that would suggest a break-down if the move holds. EURUSD rose sharply, as the sudden repricing of the Fed saw the EU-US yield spread tightening sharply, but the move would have to extend as far as 1.1500 to start having more profound technical implications. Has the market taken the news too far? That is not for me to judge, as it will take some time to assess the status of the reach of the current outbreak transmissibility, virulence and vaccine-evading characteristics of this new variant, all while real damage is being done as some countries are limiting travel, some merely from the areas where the new variant was discovered in southern Africa, while Japan has announced a full ban on inbound travel starting tomorrow. US President Biden will speak on the new variant later today. What does the best outcome look like? The omicron variant proves very transmissible, but is considerably milder and/or not particularly good at getting around the existing vaccines. Worst case involves some combination of significant vaccine evading characteristics and virulence that is anywhere similar to prior variants. I suspect that without immediate good news (real news surely requires at least a week from here?), the uncertainty could see risk-correlated trades dragged lower before things can improve, but a significant further deterioration in risk assets would likely require actual bad news emerging rather than merely an extension of the uncertainty. Regarding a timeline for learning more about the risks from the omicron variant, it’s best perhaps to admit that I have no clue, but a Reuters article suggests the major vaccine makers may be able to determine efficacy of existing vaccines in about two weeks. Chart: USDJPYWhile other JPY crosses were bigger movers on Friday, the technical development in USDJPY was the most remarkable, as it came off new cycle- and multi-year highs. The damage is significant locally, but would turn more severe if the 112.73 pivot low from October is broken and then goes on to challenge the more structurally significant 111.50-111.00 area. Source: Saxo Group Looking at the week ahead, we would normally be touting the importance of the next set of US survey numbers (November Consumer Confidence and November ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday and ISM Services on Friday) and November jobs and earnings numbers on Friday, but instead, we’ll have to juggle the ongoing news flow and headlines from the new virus variant and may have to file these data away for a later “pent-up” reaction if the omicron variant impact dissipates. Besides the US dollar and the JPY, I will watch all points on the US yield curve and risk sentiment measures closely for how the market is reading the situation. Powell is out today with opening remarks at some event - more interesting is testimony tomorrow, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen, on the policy response to the pandemic, which could see interesting exchanges on inflation, etc.  Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe JPY is in a very different place from where it was a week ago or even two trading sessions ago and looks to remain the high-beta currency to whether the virus news drags market sentiment. The SEK reading looks extreme, but difficult to fade in terms of picking levels – downside put spreads in EURSEK the cautious way to proceed for those interested in fading this move now rather than waiting for a reversal pattern to develop. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Talking trends is treacherous business when the market goes into headline reactivity mode, but note that USDJPY and CNHJPY turning negative (if they close lower today) would make it a clean sweep for the JPY across the board. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production US President Biden to speak about omicron variant 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Accumulates Support

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Accumulates Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.12.2021 08:58
USDCHF to test key support The US dollar stabilized after Jerome Powell hinted at speeding up the taper pace. The break below 0.9270 has put the rally on hold. The support has turned into resistance with the latest rebound fading. But a bullish divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the retracement as the price approaches 0.9140. Buying could be expected in this demand zone around November’s low 0.9100. Sentiment remains upbeat as long as the greenback is above this level. A bounce above 0.9270 may resume the uptrend. XAGUSD remains under pressure Silver struggled after US Treasury yields jumped on Fed’s hawkish tilt. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a deterioration in the market mood after a drop below the floor at 23.00. An oversold RSI caused a limited rebound which was then capped by 23.30. This was a sign that the bears were still in control of the direction. The psychological level of 22.00 is the next support. Its breach would lead to September’s lows at 21.50, an important level to keep the metal afloat in the medium term. USOIL tests major demand zone WTI crude inches higher as OPEC+ discuss whether to let additional output flow as previously planned. The price is hovering above a major demand zone between 62.00 and 64.00. A bullish RSI divergence indicates that the selling pressure might have eased. A rally above 71.20 could force the short side to cover and bring in more buying momentum. Then 76.00 would be the next hurdle before a full-blown recovery. On the downside, a bearish breakout could trigger a broader sell-off and potentially derail a 19-month long rally.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: ETH outperforming its peers, BTC struggles and XRP bearish

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: ETH outperforming its peers, BTC struggles and XRP bearish

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.12.2021 17:11
Bitcoin refrains from making new highs as Tuesday’s gap-fill kills uptrend continuation. Ethereum outpaces its peers by barely hitting new all-time highs. XRP price again looking for direction as investors interest wanes. The Bitcoin bull rally got stopped in its tracks this week after BTC price came under more pressure from the Omicron story, and the resulting market turmoil. Ethereum price, however, came just $16 away from making a new record high, making gains in contrast to the other two majors. XRP saw investors buying the dip, but the uptrend hit a wall and got stopped in its tracks. Bitcoin price on the backfoot after a slowdown that made it lose bullish momentum Bitcoin (BTC) price popped higher at the beginning of the week, shrugging off investors' concerns about the new Covid variant. On Monday, BTC price opened up much higher than where it closed on Sunday, forming a gap in the chart. As a general rule, gaps get filled sooner rather than later, and this was the case on Monday, when bulls saw their early gains lost as BTC price retraced to fill the gap. Bears have seized the opportunity to defend the new monthly pivot for December at $59,586, which coincides with the start of a Fibonacci retracement.. Evidence of this weakening can be found in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), dipping back below 50, showing that bullish demand is starting to wane. BTC/USD daily chart As a result of current market uncertainty, expect potential investors to stay on the sidelines. Although the red descending trend line has been broken a little, it still holds importance and investors will probably only step in following a break back above it, helped, perhaps, by breaking news about vaccine effectiveness against the new strain. Either that or investors will sit on their hands and wait for another bounce off $53.350. Should that level fail to hold, however, and there is more bad news, expect a quick 6% drop towards the $50,000 psychological level and previous historical support. At that level bulls will likely mount a defence against a further downturn. Ethereum price outpaces its peers and could make new highs by the end of this week Ethereum (ETH) price, unlike Bitcoin and XRP, saw bulls run a tight and steep rally from $4,000 towards $4,936 in just five days. That was in a troubled market-facing considerable headwinds. That said, bulls now need to keep a tight stop on current ETH price action in order for a bull trap not to form, after the pull-back on profit-taking that occurred in the wake of price barely hitting an all-time high. ETH quickly reversed from its highs on Wednesday and tested the December pivot at $4,481. That is just $16 above the historical technical level marked up on the chart from November 12. This is a level of great importance and it will be very interesting to see if bulls can maintain price action above it, perhaps, helped by a possible bounce off the red top line that has so far been successfully capping price action to the upside. ETH/USD daily chart That red descending trend line, on the other hand, should support a break below $4,465, but if bulls flee the scene, expect a bull trap to form and price to run down lower. The first support tested in that decline is the historical double top at $4,060, with the monthly S1 support level at $4,000 just below there. The correction could already hold 18% of accrued losses from the highs of Wednesday, which would attract investors interested in the buying opportunity at those levels. Ethereum prices breaks all resistance barriers, with $5,000 within sight XRP price sees bulls rejected at $1.05, pushing price back towards $0.88 Ripple (XRP) price saw sparks fly in a nice uptrend on Wednesday, but then hit a bump in the road after the $1.05 level held firmly, following two failed tests to the upside. The rejection that squeezed prices to the downside on Tuesday, probably washed out quite a lot of investors and technical traders, and caused the lack of momentum and drive in XRP price action to tackle that $1.05 resistance. As the price fades further to the downside today, expect current market uncertainty to weigh further on XRP and see a possible retest of the short-term double bottom at $0.88. XRP/USD daily chart On a retest of that double bottom, a break looks more than likely, as the level holds no historical or other significance. That would hand bears the opportunity to push XRP price down towards either $0.84, for the third test of support at that level, or breakthrough and run down to $0.80, which is a prominent figure and the level of the monthly S1 pivot support level, combined with a historical significant support level at $0.78, originating from June 8. This would provide the perfect zone for a fade-in trade for XRP traders. XRP price appears to develop nasty bear trap
The Greenback Finds Traction ahead of the Jobs Report

The Greenback Finds Traction ahead of the Jobs Report

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 03.12.2021 12:19
December 03, 2021  $USD, Australia, Canada, China, Currency Movement, EMU, FOMC, Inflation, Japan, jobs, UK Overview:  The Omicron variant has been detected in more countries, but the capital markets are taking it in stride.  Risk appetites appear to be stabilizing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive session, though Hong Kong and Taiwan markets did not participate in the advance today.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling to hold on to early gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed.  The US 10-year yield is a little near 1.43%, down around six basis points this week.  European yields are slightly softer. Core yields are off 5-6 bp this week.  The dollar is firm ahead of the jobs data.  The Antipodeans and Swedish krona are the heaviest, falling around 0.6% through the European morning.  The Swiss franc and euro are up about 0.1% and are the most resilient so far today.   The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is trading lower for the third session and is set to extend its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week.  Accelerating inflation is the latest drag on the Turkish lira.  The 0.6% decline today brings the week's drop to around 10.5%.  Gold is little changed within yesterday's range.  Last week, it settled a little above $1802.  Now it is below $1775  Oil is extending yesterday's recovery. Although OPEC+  unexpectedly stuck with plans to boost output by 400,000 barrels a day next month, it warned it could change its collective mind at any point.  January WTI recovered from around $62.40 yesterday to close at $66.50.  It is trading close to $68.20 before US markets open.  US natural gas fell nearly 25.5% over the past four sessions but is bouncing by around 3.7% today. European gas (Dutch) is stabilizing after yesterday's 5.6% decline.  Still, it is posting gains for the fifth consecutive week and is up more than 35% over the run.  Iron ore and copper prices are little changed.   Asia Pacific At the same time that Chinese officials are cracking down on the "variable interest entity" form of offshore listings for domestic companies, the US SEC is moving to enforce the 2002 laws that require foreign companies to allow greater scrutiny by US regulators.  Didi, the ride-hailing service, which listed in the US over local official objections, is now in the process of reversing itself.  The press reports that China and Hong Kong companies are the only ones to refuse to acquiesce to US demands.  This seems to be another facet of the decoupling meme.  Note that the NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index that tracks 98 Chinese companies listed in the US has fallen for five consecutive sessions coming into today, for a cumulative loss of about 10%.  China's Caixin service PMI was weaker than anticipated at 52.1, down from 53.8.  This, coupled with the softer manufacturing reading, shaved the composite to 51.2 from 51.5.   In contrast, Japan and Australia's flash service and composite PMIs were revised higher.  In Japan, the service PMI was revised to 53.0 from 52.1 and 50.7 in October.  The composite was revised to 53.3 from 52.5, to rise for its third consecutive month.  Australia's service PMI stands at 55.7, up from the flash reading of 55.0 and 51.8 in October.  The composite PMI is at 55.7, its third consecutive monthly rise as well.  Japan and Australia's PMI contrasts with the disappointment in China and Europe, and the US. This is because they are recovering from the long emergency (Japan) and lockdowns (Australia).   Trading remains choppy, and market confidence is fragile.  The dollar remains in the range set against the yen on Tuesday((~JPY112.55-JPY113.90).  Today's high has been just below JPY113.50, where options for $520 mln expire today.   Options for around $1.3 bln at JPY113.00 also will be cut today.  The greenback settled last week slightly below JPY113.40.  The Australian dollar has been sold to new lows for the year a little lower than $0.7050.  We have noted that this area corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the Aussie's rally from the March 2020 low near $0.5500.  The next area of support is seen around $0.7000.  It is the fifth consecutive weekly decline that began in late October above $0.7500.  The US dollar's two-day rise against the Chinese yuan is ending with a minor loss today. Similarly, the greenback posted gains for the past two weeks and has given it all back this week.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3738, just below the median (Bloomberg survey) projection of CNY6.3740.   Offshore investors appear to have bought the most Chinese stocks today via the connect-link in a couple of weeks.  Also, note that China extended the tax exemption for foreign institutional investors from the interest tax through the end of 2025.    Europe German and French PMIs were revised lower, while Spain and Italy surprised on the upside.  The revisions shaved the gains initially reported for the service and composite PMIs.  Still, the German composite rose for the first time in four months to stand at 52.2 from 52.0.  The French composite PMI stands at 56.1, up from 54.7.  It is the first increase since June.  Separately, France reported a 0.9% rise in October industrial output, which is better than expected, but the September contraction was revised to -1.5% from -1.3%.   Spain's service PMI rose to \59.8 from 56.6 and was well above expectations.  The composite reading is 58.3, up from 56.2.  It is the first gain in five months and is the highest since August.  Italy's service PMI rose to 55.9 from 52.4.  Economists had expected something closer to 54.5.  The composite rose to 57.6 from 54.2.  It has softened in September and October, and the November reading is the best since August.   The UK's service and composite PMI were revised to show a slightly larger decline than initially seen in the flash report.  The service PMI slipped to 58.5, from 58.6 preliminary estimate and 59.1 in October.  The composite PMI was shaved to 57.6 from the 57.7 initial estimate and 57.8 in October.  The November weakness was disappointing after rising in September and October to snap a three-month decline.  The December short-sterling interest rate futures consolidated in a choppy activity this week after the implied yield fell for eight consecutive sessions previously.  The market is discounting about a 1 in 3 chance of a hike at the BOE meeting on December 16.  The euro slipped to a three-day low slightly above $1.1280 in late Asian turnover before resurfacing the $1.1300 area in the European morning.  Still, we suspect the upside is limited.  The 20-day moving average is near $1.1350, and the single currency has not traded above it since November 9.  The euro remains within the range set on Tuesday (~$1.1235-$1.1385).  Given the divergence of monetary policy, resistance looks stronger than support.  For its part, steering is holding barely above its three-day low near $1.3260.  It, too, remains within Tuesday's range (~$1.3195-$1.3370).  Recall that the $1.3165 area corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement objective of the rally from the March 2020 low near $1.14.  Meanwhile, the euro is pressing below CHF1.04.  It has not closed below there in six years.   America Fully cognizant of the irony here, but barring a shockingly poor report, today's US employment data may have little last impact on the market.  If there was any doubt about it before, since Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke, there isn't.  The Fed has shifted from helping to facilitate recovery to preventing inflation expectations from getting entrenched.  That means that even a mediocre report today will be overshadowed by next week's CPI, which will likely show that inflation is still accelerating.  Conventional wisdom holds that the White House prefers doves at the Fed, but that does not hold now.  President Biden's public approval rating is low, and the Vice President's is lower still. Polls suggest that inflation is a knock against the administration.  When Biden announced the re-nomination of Powell and Brainard's nomination to Vice-Chair, both candidates reaffirmed their commitment to combat inflation.  What is true of the employment data also holds for the final services and composite PMI, factory orders, and the service ISM.  There may be headline risk but little implication for policy.  The Senate passed the stop-gap measures to keep the federal government funded through February 18.  Meanwhile, the debt ceiling is expected to hit between December 21 and late January.   Canada's labor market has recovered quicker than the US.  Today's another constructive report will likely solidify expectations that the Bank of Canada may hike rates in the March-April period.  The Bank of Canada meets next week.  Of course, it may be cautious with the unknowns surrounding the Omicron variant, but the economic recovery is solid after the weakness in Q2.  Trade tensions with the US are rising.  The US doubled its anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs on Canadian softwood imports (almost 18%).  US January lumber prices were limit up ($45) Wednesday and yesterday and have risen by more than 19% so far this week to reach five-month highs. There is a dispute over Canadian potato exports as well.  There are also disputes over some US initiatives' "Buy American" thrust, including electric vehicles.   The US dollar is at its best level against the Canadian dollar since late September.  It is pushing near CAD1.2840. The September high was closer to CAD1.29, and the late August high, which is also the high for the year, was near CAD1.2950. Barring a reversal, this will be the sixth consecutive week of the greenback's gains.  The swaps market has the first hike discounted for March 2022.  The US dollar began the week with a seven-day advance against the Mexican peso in tow.  It ended with a 1%+ pullback on Monday and again on Tuesday.  It consolidated Wednesday and fell another 1%+ yesterday.  It is little changed today near MXN21.29.  Next week, the November CPI will be reported.  It looks set to accelerate from about 6.25% to around 7.25%.  The central bank meets on December 16, after the FOMC meeting.  A 25 bp rate hike is the consensus, but an argument can be made for a 50 bp increase from the current 5.0% target.   Disclaimer
Ready, set, silver, go

Ready, set, silver, go

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.12.2021 12:56
The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Brazilian Bovespa looks bottomed out

Brazilian Bovespa looks bottomed out

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.12.2021 13:34
Brazilian market index Bovespa earlier this week came close to the psychologically crucial round level 100,000, having lost around 23% from its peak six months ago. Despite this backdrop, the Brazilian market looks too depressed and is already showing some signs of recovery. Wednesday and Thursday's intraday dips met increasing demand with a noticeable 3.7% gain on Thursday. In addition, the Brazilian index outperforming its EM peers in recent days. The technical picture supports the idea of an imminent reversal to the upside or that it may have even already started yesterday. The RSI on the weekly charts has returned from the oversold territory - a signal of a potential rebound or reversal to growth. The divergence between the RSI and the index confirms the bullish sentiment, reflecting the reduced pressure on the Brazilian stocks. The positive dynamics of foreign indices are also on the buyers' side. Chinese indices have stopped falling since the beginning of the month, bouncing back from multi-month lows. US benchmarks gained support on Thursday, surfacing after briefly dipping below critical levels. Brazilian and many other markets look very attractive for downside buying without a principal reversal in US equities.
FX Update: EURCHF lower has been the Teflon trade

FX Update: EURCHF lower has been the Teflon trade

John Hardy John Hardy 03.12.2021 13:50
Forex 2021-12-03 13:28 4 minutes to read Summary:  A look across FX shows many of the usual suspects weakening with the recent bout of risk aversion, with commodity currencies near important levels versus the US dollar. While the JPY has traded erratically of late on conflicting themes and has not shown its safe haven status of yore, the Swiss franc has, managing to thrive when the focus is on inflation and when it is on weak risk sentiment as the SNB seems to have quietly stepped away from reining in franc strength. FX Trading focus: EURCHF lower has been the Teflon trade The most consistent trending pair in G10 FX of late has been the slide in EURCHF, which has even slipped below the prior six-plus-year low near 1.0500 over the last week. Remarkably, the pair has maintained its consistent ride lower through some remarkable jolts in the background, including the more hawkish shift from the Fed and the omicron news. This may suggest that the move is not being driven by strong speculative flows – which might have shown significant volatility in line with other currency pairs recently, but rather by consistent flows as the Swiss National Bank has apparently stepped away from the assumed stout defense of the 1.0500 level. The last two weeks of sight deposit data have shown no growth, i.e., no signs that the SNB is leaning against this move after doing so the prior four weeks. Also, when inflation fears dominate as they have at times recently, CHF strength is an easy way to avoid importing inflation without rocking the boat with monetary policy signals, while CHF strength is also a natural safe haven play when volatility spikes as it has in recent weeks. The consistent trend may be set to extend here, with parity in EURCHF a natural target. Elsewhere in FX, most of the smaller currencies are lining up on the usual risk-on, risk-off fault-lines, with commodities currencies and Scandies all weak as sentiment has softened again today, although it will be interesting to see if oil prices can make a stand after the reversal of the sharp sell-off yesterday despite nominally bearish news. Big next levels coming into view include 1.3000 in USDCAD and 0.7000 in AUDUSD. On the strong side, the EUR, USD and JPY are jockeying for the upper hand in addition to the strong CHF noted. The reaction function around today’s US jobs report (can a strong average hourly earnings add further energy to Fed upside expectations on top of an already momentous shift, and how much will residual omicron uncertainty hold back that pricing for now?). Chart: EURCHFEURCHF has weakened steadily since mid September in line with the weakening in EURUSD, but far more steadily than the latter, as this trend has managed to sustain through recent volatility elsewhere and shifting focus. The technical situation is without remarkable variation and there are no signs that the SNB is leaning against the move of late. Could the move extend all the way to within reach of parity? Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere, notable BoE hawk Michael Saunders was cautious sounding in comments today on the omicron variant uncertainty, prompting the sharp slide in sterling today. He said that the omicron development is a key consideration for whether to hike in December and sees some advantages in the BoE waiting for omicron data, which may sideline any hike potential at the December 16 meeting, with the market currently putting low odds on a move (difficult to measure – the idea has developed that the BoE will hike 15 bps to 0.25%, with about a 5-7 bps of hiking priced). Saunders still favors policy tightening soon and said today that the rate rise would be limited if the BoE gets going soon. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe impressive CHF rising nearly all the way to the top of the table here, as the left/right split of the G10 currencies is nearly perfect, with all of the five “smalls” in the red, most of them deeply so. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Plenty of bright orange readings in the daily ATR shadings – these indicate very significant volatility relative to the last 1000 trading days (top 10% ranking), , while it is interesting to note something like the EURUSD supermajor still trading with still quite low intraday volatility. AUDNZD is trying to flip back to negative, while USDCHF and USDJPY have yet to follow through lower after their recent flips to the negative in the “trend” reading. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1300 – ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane to speak 1330 – US Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 1330 – US Nov. Average Hourly Earnings 1330 – US Nov. Unemployment Rate 1330 – Canada Nov. Net Change in Employment 1330 – Canada Nov. Unemployment Rate 1415 – US Fed’s Bullard (voter in 2022) to speak 1500 – US Nov. ISM Services  1500 – US Nov. Factory Orders
Bubble stocks destruction continues with 30% plunge in DocuSign

Bubble stocks destruction continues with 30% plunge in DocuSign

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.12.2021 14:35
Equities 2021-12-03 14:15 7 minutes to readSummary:  As we have written about in several equity notes, the bubble stocks segment has been under enormous pressure this year and in recent weeks the destruction in market value has intensified at a blistering pace. The tailwind from the pandemic that has benefitted many technology companies is easing faster than expected and the worsening inflation outlook is making many growth investors wary of the future direction for interest rates which play an important role in equity valuations of growth stocks. We touch on DocuSign and its Q4 revenue miss last night which caused a 30% plunge in its shares underscoring the fragility in growth stocks with high expectations.The fallout in bubble stocks show importance of balanceIn yesterday’s equity note, we discussed bubble stocks and how this group of stocks have been under pressure since February as the pandemic tailwind on growth has eased and the inflation outlook has worsened causing markets to readjust their interest rate outlook. Low interest rates have been the key driver of excessive valuations in this bubble segment and now as the tide is turning investors are readjusting their exposure. As we move into 2022, we will reiterate our view on equities that we like semiconductors, commodity sector, logistics, cyber security, mega caps, financial trading companies (a play on interest rates and volatility), and battery, which most of them are plays on the physical world making a comeback against the digital world. In a rising inflationary environment our preferred themes can make growth portfolio with exposure to bubble stocks more balanced in terms of risk.Momentum crash and Danish equities under pressureLike our bubble basket, Morgan Stanley has their own most crowded stocks basket which has just dropped more than 10% relative to the S&P 500, the most on record since 2013 underscoring the massive destruction that is currently taking place. While Tracy Alloway from Bloomberg calls it a new “quant crisis”, our view is that it is more a classic momentum crash as momentum strategies sitting on fat gains over the past 18 months are drastically reducing positions. When we reach the bottom is very uncertain but if we are in a momentum crash then it is the illiquidity that drives the explosive price action.Source: TwitterIn our recent string of equity notes on interest rate sensitivity and bubble stocks we also mentioned Danish equities as being interest rate sensitive together with other equity markets such as the Netherlands, Switzerland, United States, and India. But given the recent weeks price action it seems there is an overlap to the bubble stocks selloff suggesting the readjustments in equities are more profound. Source: Saxo GroupDocuSign shares plunging 30% show fragility for growth stocksAnother sign of the stress in the bubble stocks segment of the equity market is the 30% plunge in DocuSign, the leader in electronic signature, following a Q4 (ending 31 January 2022) revenue guidance missing estimates; the revenue guidance was $557-563mn vs est. $574mn. The price reaction shows how fragile these stocks are to a small change in revenue expectations and clearly the risks associated with bubble stocks. We should point out, that DocuSign does not fit all criteria for being added to our bubble stocks basket because the 12-month forward earnings expectations are positive whereas we require those to be negative to be called a bubble stock. The revenue miss has caused sell-side analysts to drastically cut the median price target to $275 from around previously $330 against a close of $164 in extended trading yesterday.Source: BloombergSource: Saxo Group
Shockingly slow job growths Vs unemployment dive

Shockingly slow job growths Vs unemployment dive

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.12.2021 15:15
In November, The US economy created 210K jobs, a shockingly low number compared with the expected 550K. And this is the weakest increase since January.This indicator noted a close correlation with the dynamics of new coronavirus cases, which are also at their highest since the beginning of the year in the USA.Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, maintaining the annual rate of 4.8% and falling short of expectations of a rise to 5.0%. It will not be surprising if policymakers comment in the coming days to raise the question of whether the recovery is losing steam. This is a negative surprise for the dollar as it reduces the pressure on the Fed with accelerated unwinding and faster rate hikes.The unemployment rate and the share of the economically active population, measured differently, contrasting sharply with the data above, marking a significant improvement. The unemployment rate has collapsed from 4.6% to 4.2%. This is a return to the multi-year norm, indicating a full labour market recovery. Notably, however, the economically active population has risen to 61.8%, indicating that the fall in unemployment is not the result of a shrinking labour force.Traditionally, markets pay more attention to month-on-month changes in employment numbers, but in this case, the effect of this extremely weak NFP data is balanced by a healthy, low unemployment rate.
Polkadot price ready to breakout after DOT forms double bottom

Polkadot price ready to breakout after DOT forms double bottom

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.12.2021 17:39
Polkadot price is hovering above a support level at $35.47, hinting at the start of a new uptrend. A bounce off this barrier is likely to trigger a 20% ascent to $42.77. If DOT fails to hold above $32.23, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Polkadot price began turning around and moving higher on November 28. It is currently resting on support after a brief pull-back, with the potential for using this floor as a launchpad higher. A resumption of the bullish impulse will provide fresh confirmation for the new uptrend. Polkadot price eyes higher highs Polkadot price rallied 72% after bottoming at $32.18 on October 12. This upswing soon began stalling, however, due to profit-taking, knocking DOT back down by roughly 41% in about three weeks, creating the second swing low at $32.18. This development has led to the formation of a double bottom reversal pattern, hinting at the potential for more upside. So far, Polkadot price has rallied only 22% and is likely to provide another ‘buy’ opportunity before it enters an ‘up only’ bullish mode. In fact, DOT is currently in a buy zone as it retests the $35.47 support floor. A bounce off this level will likely trigger a 20% surge to $42.77. Polkadot price needs to pierce through the $37.55 hurdle to confirm the start of this new uptrend, however. DOT/USDT 12-hour chart Regardless of the bullish outlook, if Polkadot price fails to hold above the $35.47 support level, it will suggest that investors are not done booking profits. In such a situation, DOT is likely to revisit the $32.23 demand barrier. While there is a chance Polkadot price might sweep below this level to collect liquidity, a daily close below it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a situation, market participants can expect DOT to continue its descent to the next platform at $29.74.
Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint

Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.12.2021 15:57
S&P 500 sharply rebounded, and signs are it has legs. My key risk-on indicator to watch yesterday, HYG, turned up really strongly. No problem that the dollar didn‘t decline, it‘s enough that financials and energy caught some breath. We‘re turning to risk-on as Omicron didn‘t cause the sky to fall. What a relief! Seriously, it doesn‘t look that hard lockdowns would be employed, which means the market bulls can probe to go higher again. What I told you on Wednesday already in the title It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron, today‘s non-farm payrolls illustrate. Such was the game plan before the data release, and this refrain of bad is the new good, is what followed. The Fed is desperately behind the curve in taming inflation, and its late acknowledgment thereof, doesn‘t change the bleak prospects of tapering (let alone accelerated one) into a sputtering economy. What we‘re experiencing currently in the stock market, is a mere preview of trouble to strike in 2022. We‘re in the topping process, and HYG holds the key as stated yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 returned above the 50-day moving average, the volume wasn‘t suspicious – the bulls have regained the benefit of the doubt, and need to extend gains convincingly and sectorally broadly next. Credit Markets HYG successfully defending gained ground, would be a key signal of strength returning to risk-on assets and lifting up S&P 500. There is still much to go – remember that the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness looks deceptive and prone to reversal to me – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets doubted with bets placed against its narratives. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is getting slowly reversed, about to. Beaten down the most lately, black gold is readying an upside surprise. Copper Copper is turning higher, taking time, but turning up – it‘s positive, but still more of paring back recent setback than leading higher. I‘m reasonably optimistic, and acknowledge much time is needed to reach fresh highs. Bitcoin and Ethereum The bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t get too far – crypto consolidation goes on, no need to panic or get excited yet. Summary S&P 500 is in a recovery mode, and the bulls look ready to prove themselves. The keenly watched HYG close presaged the odds broadly tipping the risk-on way, just as much as cyclicals did. It‘s a good omen that commodities are reacting – not too hot, not too cold – with precious metals in tow. In tow, as the Fed isn‘t yet being doubted – the NFPs are a first swallow of its inability to carry out tapering plans till the (accelerated or not) end. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The Trade Entry Has Been Triggered – How to Secure Profits?

The Trade Entry Has Been Triggered – How to Secure Profits?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 03.12.2021 15:34
  Entry… triggered! The price rallies to the Moon, but you don’t want to cash out “just yet” - am I right? So, let’s see how to prevent hard landing. There are obviously several methods to assess risk and thus to manage it, depending on one’s risk appetite or what is also more commonly known as risk profile. One method I use on swing (longer-term) trades is to manually lift my stop once – at least – 50% of the first target has been reached on a swing trade. I provide such trades on Sunshine Profits based on the projections I draw. Let’s take a practical case: in my last trade position on WTI crude oil provided on Nov-30, the market found a floor around $66. Then after being pushed up by the bulls, it rebounded onto that support level ($65.70-66.21), and rallied up to $69.49. So, if we take our reference entry in the middle of the yellow band at $66, the market moved up exactly 70% of the total distance to the target 1. At this point, to avoid giving profits away, an option would be to lift the stop to net breakeven ($66 + commissions/fees) so that the risk for that trade could get offset once 50% of the distance to the target 1 is passed. Following that, if, for example, the market pursues its rally further – let’s say up to 60% – then the stop will be lifted to net breakeven + 10% of the distance to the target 1. In our case the market rallied up to 70% of the distance to the target 1, so the stop should be lifted to net breakeven + 20% of the distance to the target 1. From my experience, this may represent a good way to manually trail your stop. Of course, there are many different methods to do so, but I haven’t heard of many investors or traders mentioning that one, therefore I wanted to present it here. The following chart is the one I posted in my trade review published on Wednesday, the 1st of December: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart from Dec-1) To better visualize the price action that occurred, we zoomed into the 4-hour chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart from Dec-1) As you can see, the level provided was optimum given its function to act as a floor for rebounding prices. Then, the market was up to 70% of the total distance to reach the target 1, and finally reverted back down to the stop level. Now, this is today’s chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) Again, a zoom into the 4H chart lets us see more details of the price action that occurred: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) In summary, using such a method of risk management to keep intermediate profits before the trade reverts strongly to the downside might be a good idea, particularly during high volatility periods. Are you interested in seeing this strategy in action? Make sure to check my Oil Trading Alerts! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Weekly Close Out

Weekly Close Out

Luke Suddards Luke Suddards 04.12.2021 17:45
Omicron: In today’s weekly I’ll be dedicating some digital ink for the latest information on the new variant omicron. Ok so what are the major points of importance. New admissions to hospitals in Gauteng increased by 144% last week (hospitalisations lag cases by around 1-3 weeks). So far the early data shows the majority of these hospitalisations are from the unvaccinated (if that trend remains that’s positive). However, a recent study released from South Africa indicates reinfection risk is 3 times higher than previous variants. In terms of the deadliness of this variant, the early data looks good with Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly stating that of the 300 cases recorded worldwide all were very mild or had no symptoms at all. However, the sample size is too small so we can’t draw solid conclusions at this stage. The major vaccine makers have offered timelines of two to six weeks for assessing the vaccine escape properties of omicron via in-vitro lab tests. Interestingly, Moderna is less optimistic than Pfizer about expecting current vaccines needing to be tweaked to fend off the omicron variant. Volatility will remain high as the market remains on tenterhooks as new information drips through. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is flat on the week, with many quite perplexed by the lack of gains (particularly against the euro) given the hawkish Fed pivot and risk sentiment remaining on edge. The dollar coming in flat is a combination of gains against high-beta cyclical companies offset by losses against traditional safe haven currencies. Just take a look at the charts of USDJPY and AUDUSD. In terms of the euro, I’ll chat more about that below in the EURUSD paragraph. The big domestic news for the dollar this week was Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric. The word transitory is to be retired as he admits the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown. On the QE purchases side of things, he remains open to it being wrapped up earlier than originally expected with a discussion on a faster pace taking place in 2 weeks at their December meeting. He elucidated his thoughts on the employment side of their mandate, stating that a great labour market requires a protracted expansion and in order to achieve this price stability has to occur. I see this as inflation now taking primacy over employment goals, indicating a shift in the Fed’s thinking with regards to inflationary pressures. The hawkish commentary from FOMC members this week such as Daly, Quarles, Barkin and Bostic would certainly suggest this is the case. STIRs are showing rate lift-off for practically June 2022 (96%) and over 2.5 hikes through December 2022. All attention now falls to the Non-Farm Payrolls number out today. The preliminary indicator such as ISM manufacturing index, ADP and jobless claims all pointing towards decent numbers from the jobs report today disappointed as NFP numbers missed expectations by a significant amount. Price moves have been muted as traders may be reluctant to place any fresh positions on and chase with the risk of adverse news over the weekend regarding omicron. Bottom line - traders should expect cross-asset volatility to remain higher over December. Next week we’ll receive November US inflation data, which is expected to remain elevated. DXY has regained the upper trend line of its ascending channel, putting some distance between price and its moving averages. The 21-day EMA continues to provide some dynamic support to price dips. The RSI has held above the key 55 level of support. Targets wise keep an eye out on the 96.5 on the upside and to the downside the 21-day EMA and former support around 95.5. EURUSD: So why did EURUSD strengthen on the market sell-off due to omicron on Friday and has remained fairly defensive throughout this week? It’s certainly not because the euro is a safe-haven currency in times of risk aversion. This price action has more to do with its use as a funding currency. Traders borrow euros to search for higher yield globally which is a decent strategy when risk conditions are favourable, however, when that risk dial flips in other direction we see the typical carry trade unwind, leading to flows back into the euro. Additionally, because expectations for rate hikes with regards to the eurozone are already significantly low, it’s at much less risk of a dovish repricing working favourably in terms of spread differentials with the dollar. Political pressure is rising on the ECB to act, particularly from Germany. A Reuters article out mid-week pointed towards some members wanting to rather hold off declaring their asset purchase intentions at this December meeting due to uncertainty caused by omicron. However, the ECB's Muller stated that he doesn’t think omicron is a reason to shift the scheduled end date for PEPP. Following this line of thought just today Madame Lagarde expressed that she feels certain that PEPP will cease in March as planned, saying markets require clarity in December. On the data front we had better than expected inflation prints from Germany (5.2% YoY) and the eurozone (4.9% YoY). It’s quiet in terms of economic data next week with the ZEW survey out as we lead up to a crucial ECB meeting in two weeks. EURUSD is drifting lower from its 21-day EMA. The RSI has stalled around the 40 level. Looking at the technicals clearly EURUSD is in a downtrend. Rallies in my opinion should be short lived with sellers coming in. Key levels to monitor in both directions are 1.135 (21-day EMA) and on the downside 1.12. GBPUSD: With a vacuum of economic data for the UK, the words of central bankers took centre stage. Bailey didn’t provide much meat at his speech this Wednesday. However, Saunders (leans hawkish) who spoke today has caused a repricing lower in the probability of a 15bps rate hike come December (only an additional 4bps now from around 8bps pre-speech). He expressed the need for potentially taking a patient approach with the uncertainty from omicron. Cable is lower as a result. On the virus front, the UK regulator has given the green light for booster doses to be offered to all adults. Additionally, the government has signed a contract for 114 million vaccine doses from Pfizer and Moderna, including access to modified vaccines if they're needed to tackle omicron and other future variants of concern. On the political front, domestically the Tories held the seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup, however, with a reduced majority. On Brexit, it’s been quiet of late with some optimism around the granting of additional fish licences to French fisherman in Guernsey, Jersey is the more important zone though prone to flare ups in tension. However, temperatures remain high between France and the UK on issues related to immigration. Next week sees UK October GDP data released. EURGBP has been moving higher on the back of dovish commentary (given he’s a hawk) from Saunders as well as benefiting from any souring in risk-sentiment. The 200-day SMA isn’t far aware, which has previously capped price gains. Cable continues to -plumb fresh YTD lows and is now nearing 1.32. The RSI is near to oversold territory but with some room remaining to eke out further losses. Moving averages are all pointing downwards. Targets wise, on the upside the 1.335 and above there former support around 1.34 (21-day EMA too). USDJPY: This pair continues to trade on US 10-year yield moves and now it’s status as a safe-haven currency has kicked back in. Early Friday morning has seen a bid coming in, which could be some pre NFP positioning on expectations of a move higher in the back end of the US yield curve. Put EURJPY on your radar, price is at a key support level around 128. USDJPY is finding support around its 50-day SMA, 113 round number and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price is trying to overcome resistance from the 50-day SMA. The former range support is providing some resistance around 113.5. The RSI is trying to get back into its range support around 46. Targets wise on the upside, 114 will be important and on the downside 112.5 (this week's lows). Gold: Gold has slipped below the $1775 support level as the hawkish fed leads to higher short term rates, kryptonite for the shiny yellow metal. Fears over inflation have failed to help gold stay propped up as well as risk-off fears from omicron. Inflation data out from the US next week will be a risk event for gold traders as well as the Fed meeting the following week. Today’s NFP hasn’t ignited much excitement in gold markets. Gold is trying to reclaim the $1775 support level. The 50-day SMA has made a very minor cross above the 200-day SMA. The 21-day EMA has been capping further gains. The RSI is in no man's land around 38. Targets wise, if $1775 is cleared then $1800 opens up (moving averages just below there). On the downside, $1750 comes into view. Oil: Crude fell sharply into a bear market this week as risk-off, Fed tightening, fears over further lockdowns and travel bans from the new omicron variant led to a repricing on the demand side of the equation. OPEC+ the main event for crude traders this week, decided to stick to their scheduled 400k bpd for January, but caveated this with the meeting remaining in “session”, meaning changes to the supply side could be made before their 4 January meeting if omicron causes a further deterioration. This led to yo-yo style price behaviour. Until there is more clarity regarding omicron, I expect oil’s price to remain choppy without a solid price trend. Backwardation spreads have narrowed, indicating a more balanced supply and demand equation. Iranian Nuclear Negotiations began the week positively, but sentiment turned pessimistic towards the end of this week, providing further short-term bullish tailwinds to crude’s price. JPM has some very bullish forecasts with the bank expecting crude to hit $150 by 2023. Oil is having a run at its 200-day SMA. The RSI has moved out of overbought territory and is a fair distance below its 50-day SMA (some mean reversion). Right now price will remain choppy within a range as omicron news flow prevents a trend from forming. Targets wise, on the upside the 200-day SMA and $73.50 dollar mark will be key. On the downside $68 support is important.
Gold's 1780s Are Driving Us Crazy!

Gold's 1780s Are Driving Us Crazy!

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 06.12.2021 08:31
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 629th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 04 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com In completing its 48th trading week of 2021, Gold settled yesterday (Friday) at 1784. 'Twas the eighth week this year that Gold has settled in the 1780s (the first occurrence being on 19 February). Indeed, Gold's median weekly settle price year-to-date is 1788. Yet as anybody engaged in the Gold Story knows, Gold first traded in the 1780s a decade ago on 09 August 2011, the U.S "M2" money supply that day at $9.5 trillion; (today 'tis $21.5 trillion). So to reprise that from the "You Cannot Be Wrong Dept.": should anyone ask you "off the cuff" what is the price of Gold, your instantaneous response of "1780" shall (so 'twould seem for the foreseeable future) not only be correct, but enhance your dazzling intellectual image. To reprise as well "The M Word" crowd, clearly their parking place of preference is Gold's 1780s. Of the 233 trading days year to date, 27 of Gold's closures exceeding 1800 have -- within the five ensuing trading days -- found price settle in the 1780s, or lower. "1800? SELL!" Sheesh... Gold's 1780s are driving us crazy! Regardless, Gold -- and moreover Silver -- are doing what markets do when their technicals turn negative: price goes down. Per our Market Magnets page, Gold from 1861 on 18 November found price then pierce down through its Magnet: "SELL!" From our Market Trends page, Gold from 1847 on 19 November found the "Baby Blues" of trend consistency begin to plummet: "SELL!" From our Market Values page, Gold from 1805 on 22 November crossed below its smooth valuation line: "SELL!" More mainstream technical signals have since followed to "SELL!" And recall -- just prior to it all in our anticipating near-term selling -- we nonetheless deemed the 1800s as "safe": "WRONG!" Having thus now driven you crazy, we obviously deem holding and buying Gold as "RIGHT!" especially as the stock market -- be this another false signal or otherwise -- finds the S&P 500 doing its dance of a snake in death throes. To be sure we've seen such before, only to see the Index magically survive, indeed thrive. You veteran readers of The Gold Update may recall some six years ago (on 23 January 2016) our characterizing the S&P as being in such "death throes", the ensuing three weeks then finding the Index fall 5% from a "live" price/earnings ratio of 43x; (today 'tis 47x). "But don't forget it's now time for the Santa Claus Rally, mmb..." Yet another conventional wisdom notion there, Squire, via your appreciated "leading comment". Irrespective of what "everybody says" and expects, Santa Claus doesn't always come to Wall Street. Since 1980, as measured yearly from 01-to-24 December, Santa has skipped gifting the stock market 11 times. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. For those of you scoring at home, the S&P recorded net losses across that festive stint in '80, '81, '83, '86, '96, '97, '00, '02, '08, '15 and '18, the latter being a 409-point (-14.8%) loss. (Advice to the stocking stuffer: buy coal ... nudge-nudge, wink-wink, elbow-elbow). Moreover, have you been monitoring the major market dislocations of late? Talk about the maligning of conventional wisdom! In yesterday's session, the €uro, Swiss Franc, ¥en -- and yes the Dollar Index too -- all closed higher. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. Still, even as there is Dollar demand given the prospect of it paying a positive interest rate, the yield on the U.S. Treasury Bond continues to fall: 'twas 2.177% on 08 October, but is down now to 1.678%. In fact across our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500), the price of the Bond is the only component with a positive 21-day linear regression trend. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. And then there's Oil: by our Market Values page, Black Gold settled yesterday 15 points below its smooth valuation line (66.22 vs. 81.51), even as Oil Inventories fell. "WHAT?" 'Tis true, (albeit OPEC is gonna keep a-pumpin'). Still, by that measure, Oil's price is massively, -- indeed deflationarily -- dislocated near-term from value. Too as noted, the Price of the S&P continues to be ridicously dislocated from the support of its Earnings; but if you get your dumbed-down P/E of 28.1x from the media, when 'tis honestly 47.4x, go ahead and say it: "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, the ongoing and most overwhelming dislocation is the price of Gold vis-à-vis our Scoreboard Dollar-debasement valuation (1784 vs. 4008). Say no more, Igor. A December to remember? Early on, 'tis the season to be dislocated. To which naturally (as subtly stated) we find Gold located in the 1780s. Why expect it to be anywhere else? So spot-on is Gold in the 1780s that per the following graphic of weekly price, the rightmost close is right on the dashed regression trendline. So are the 1780s driving you crazy, too? At least Gold's parabolic trend still is Long, although the aforementioned negative technicals have kept on the lid, (to say nothing of "The M Word" crowd?). Note as well the 79.1x reading of the Gold/Silver, ratio, essentially at a two-month high, the white metal having been terribly on the skids of late: Anything but skidding these last couple of months has been our Economic Barometer, it now having reached its highest oscillative level in better than three years. Whilst nominally last week's 13 incoming metrics were quite mixed, their overall effect net of prior period revisions and consensus expectations was to launch the Baro higher still as we here see: Amongst the improvers were November's Unemployment Rate and Average Workweek, plus both the Manufacturing and Services readings from the Institute for Supply Management, along with October's Construction Spending, Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales. However: November's ADP Employment data, Labor's Non-farm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and the Conference Board's read on Consumer Confidence were all weaker. Therein, too, is the red line of the S&P 500, its aforementioned snaky death throes throwing the Index all over the place this past week. The S&P's intra-day runs were as follows: Mon +48, Tue -86, Wed -143, Thu +91, Fri -113. Want some perspective for that? The entire trading range of the S&P 500 for the year 2004 was less than this past Wednesday's session alone. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, back in 2004, 'twas a greater percentage range, but at least the average P/E for that year was a "reasonable" (vs. today) 26.4x. Thus again is begged the question: "Has the S&P crashed yet?" Obviously not, but we're feelin' very leery 'bout January. "As goes January..."(although you regular readers know we've demonstrably debunked that conventional notion as well). BUT... As for the Federal Reserve's removing of the punch bowl, Atlanta FedPrez Raphael "Ready to Raise" Bostic again says its time to step up the Taper of Paper Caper, whilst FedGov Randal "Have No" Quarles says 'tis time for The Bank to prepare to raise. And as noted in last week's missive: were it not for the "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we could well see a FedFunds rate hike in the FOMC's 26 January Policy Statement. So just keep wearing your masque such that everything's great, and in turn let the Fed increase its rate! Here's another positive from the "Good Is Bad Dept.": the StateSide government shan't run out of money this time 'round until 18 February. Low on dough? To Congress you go! Just ask TreaSec Yellen, for she's in the know! Ho-ho-ho... Either way, west of The Pond "inflation" remains the watchword -- or if you prefer the real word -- as the word "transitory" is being transited away. East of The Pond, the EuroZone (just 23 years young) sees its inflation level hitting record high levels; but should it be peaking, 'tis thought any European Central Bank rate rise shan't next year materialize. And lacking any upside mobility of late (duh) are our precious metals, the following two-panel graphic bearing along as butt ugly. On the left we've Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date, their cascading "Baby Blues" reinforcing price's downtrend, (although price never really departs the 1780s, right?). On the right similarly is the same story for Sister Silver, who clearly is suffering the ravages of DDS ("Dangerfield Disrespect Syndrome"), by which she's none too happy. For from the precious metals' respective highs of just three weeks back, Gold has dropped as much as -5.8% ... but Silver more than double that at -12.6%! "WHAT?" 'Tis true: Meanwhile, still dwellers in their Profile cellars are Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). Here is the entirety of their trading across the last two weeks, the high volume price apices as labeled. And that is a lot of overhead work to do: So after all of that, are you ready to tune out? You can't be so blamed. Gold's 1780s have got us all crazy! Puts us in mind of that iconic glamour rock hit by Sparks from back in '83 -- supportive of the film by the same name -- "Get Crazy"Tune it in on your radio dial: sure to bring a you a Golden Smile! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Shows Weakness

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Shows Weakness

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.12.2021 10:44
USDCHF struggles to bounce The US dollar softened after November’s nonfarm payrolls missed the mark. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at 0.9270, a former support that had turned into a resistance. The bullish RSI divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off though there is no confirmation yet for a sustainable bounce. 0.9120 is a key demand area on the daily timeframe and a bearish breakout would invalidate the November rebound. Buyers may switch sides as sentiment further deteriorates, exacerbating volatility to the downside. CADJPY breaks higher The Canadian dollar surged after November’s unemployment rate fell to 6%. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart still indicates a pessimistic mood. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart caused a limited bounce as short-term traders took profit. Sellers are eager to fade rebounds with the latest being at 89.20. 87.20 at the base of the October rally would be the next support. A deeper correction may send the loonie to 85.90. The bulls will need to lift said resistance before they could initiate a reversal. UK 100 attempts to rebound The FTSE 100 recouped some losses bolstered by a weaker US jobs report. The index saw buying interest over the psychological level of 7000 which sits in the daily demand zone. The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in this congestion area. A close above the immediate resistance at 7150 is an encouraging sign of a bullish attempt. 7310 is a major hurdle ahead, its breach could short circuit the correction. 7060 is the closest support in case of weakness in the rebound.
Awaiting US CPI And Speaking Of Disney and Uber. SEK And PLN As Central Banks Moves

COT: Specs exit commodities on Omicron and Fed worries

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 06.12.2021 12:33
Commodities 2021-12-06 10:50 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. A week that encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell's increased focus on combatting inflation. While global stocks and US long end yields dropped, a 7% correction in the Bloomberg commodity index helped trigger the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. The reporting week encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell confirming inflation is no longer being transitory. His comments to the Senate banking committee raised expectations for faster tapering with the first full 0.25% rate hike now priced in for July next year. The US yield curve flattened considerably with virus related safe-haven demand driving down the yield on 10-year US treasury notes by 22 basis point. Global stocks slumped with the VIX jumping 8%. Hardest hit, however was the commodity sector after the Bloomberg commodity index slumped by 7%, thereby triggering the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Commodities Hedge funds responded to heightened growth and demand concerns related to the omicron virus, and the potential faster pace of US tapering, by cutting their net long across 24 major commodity futures by 17% to a 15-month low at 1.8 million lots. This the biggest one-week reduction since the first round of Covid-19 panic in February last year was triggered by net selling of all but three livestock contracts. Energy: Hardest hit was the energy sector where renewed demand concerns sent the prices of WTI and Brent down by more than 15%. In response to this, hedge funds accelerated their pace of futures selling with the combined net long slumping by 90k lots to a one-year low at 425k lots. The loss of momentum following the late October peak has driven an eight-week exodus out of oil contracts, culminating last week, and during this time the net length has seen a 35% or 224k lots reduction. Potentially setting the market up for a strong speculative driven recovery once the technical and fundamental outlook turns more friendly.Latest: Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades higher following its longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018. Today’s rise apart from a general positive risk sentiment in Asia has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike their official selling prices (OSP) to Asia and US next month. Thereby signaling confidence demand will be strong enough to absorb last week's OPEC+ production increase at a time when mobility is challenged by the omicron virus. For now, both WTI and Brent continue to find resistance at their 200-day moving averages, currently at $69.50 and$72.88 respectively.  Metals: Gold was net sold for a second week as speculators continued to reduce exposure following the failed breakout attempt above $1830. With Fed chair Powell signaling a change in focus from job creation to fighting inflation, sentiment took another knock, thereby driving a 13.7k lots reduction to a four-week low at 105k lots. Industrial metals also suffered with the net long in HG copper slumping by one-third to a three-month low at 13.4k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior since July has sapped hedge funds involvement with the current net length a far cry from the 92k record peak seen this time last year.Latest: Gold (XAUUSD) received a small bid on Friday following mixed US data, but overall, it continues to lack the momentum needed to challenge an area of resistance just above $1790 where both the 50- and 200-day moving averages meet. Focus on Friday’s US CPI data with the gold market struggling to respond to rising inflation as it could speed up rate hike expectations thereby putting upward pressure on real yields which are inverse correlated to gold's performance.  A full 25 basis point rate hike has now been priced in for July and the short-term direction will likely be determined by the ebb and flow of future rate hike expectations. Agriculture: The whole sector with the exception of livestock took a major hit, just one week after funds had increased bullish bets on grains and softs by the most in 15 months. Both sectors suffered setbacks of more than 5% with recent highflyers like wheat and cotton taking big hits. As mentioned, selling was broad and led by corn, soybeans, sugar and cocoa, with the latter together with palladium being the only two contracts where speculators hold an outright short position.This week the grain market will be focusing on weather developments in Australia and its potential impact on the wheat harvest, as well as the monthly World Agriculture Supply & Demand report (WASDE) from the USDA.  Forex In forex, speculators reacted to renewed virus concerns by increasing bullish dollar bets against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index to an 18-month high at $27.9 billion. Speculators were buyers of JPY (18.4k lots or $2 billion equivalent) but sellers of everything else, including euros (6.8k) and the two commodity currencies of AUD (16.9k) and CAD (10.9k). These changes resulting in the aggregate dollar long rising by $2.3 billion. In terms of extended positioning, a euro short at 23k lots was last seen in March 2020, the GBP short at 39k lots was a two-year high while the 60k lots MXN short was the highest since March 2017. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Topping Process Roadmap

Topping Process Roadmap

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.12.2021 15:43
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.In spite of decreasing yields, the dollar continues acting on the bullish argument introduced 2 weeks ago. Seeing antidollar plays struggle (part of which is the function of inflation expectations drifting lower on the Fed‘s turn – let‘s see when the central bank breaks something, which is a story for another day), is truly a warning of downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction‘s low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals. In a series of two tweets yesterday, the warning is in regardless of a smooth Monday ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears are looking a bit tired here, and the room for an upswing is getting evident. The surge late on Friday concerned both tech and value, thankfully – overall, the market breadth isn‘t though much encouraging.Credit MarketsHYG did successfully defend gained ground, and strength appears very slowly returning – the gains have to continue to sound the all clear, for considerably longer. As said on Friday, the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking fairly stable at the moment – not ready to decline, and still taking time to rebound. The accelerated taper idea didn‘t take them to the cleaners – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets really close to choking off growth.Crude OilCrude oil could keep the intraday gains, but appears base building here – similarly to natgas, this is a medium-term buying opportunity as prices would inevitably recover.CopperCopper prices reflect the combined Fed and (to a lesser degree) Omicron uncertainty – it‘s casting a verdict about upcoming real economy growth, and the red metal is still looking undecided, and merely gently leaning towards the bulls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum was reserved for the weekend, and the bleeding hasn‘t stopped so far.SummaryS&P 500 looks to have reached the low, but the jury remains out as to whether that‘s THE low. I highly recommend reading today‘s analysis for it lays out the key metrics to watch in its opening part. The nearest days and weeks will be of crucial importance in determining whether the worst in the stock market and commodities correction is behind us, or whether we still have some more to go.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Still Above 4,500 – Have Stocks Bottomed?

S&P 500 Still Above 4,500 – Have Stocks Bottomed?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 06.12.2021 15:31
  The S&P 500 index broke slightly below the 4,500 mark on Friday, but it bounced from that support level again. Is this a bottoming pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The broad stock market index lost 0.84% on Friday following Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. On Friday the index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546 again. Overall, it lost 5.24% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Stocks fluctuate since last week’s Wednesday, so is this a bottoming pattern? For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within a downtrend. This morning the broad stock market is expected to open 0.4% higher and we may see some more short-term consolidation following the recent declines. The nearest important support level is still at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Broke Below the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market recently but on Friday it broke below the support level of 16,000 and it was relatively weaker than the S&P 500 index that day. The tech stocks’ gauge fell below the early September local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Conclusion The S&P 500 index slightly extended its downtrend on Friday and it was 5.24% below the November 22 record high. So it is still just a downward correction and not a new bear market. But we may see some more downside. For now, it looks like a consolidation within a downtrend, as there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting an over 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light

US Dollar Still Has the Green Light

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 06.12.2021 16:13
  The dollar looks poised for another rally, to gold’s dismay. So, what’s the price target for the greenback over the winter months? While the consensus across the financial markets (especially at the beginning of the year) was that the U.S. dollar was destined for devaluation, I warned that the greenback would rise from the ashes. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, the latter’s ascent helped make the precious metals one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2021. Moreover, after more dollar doubters emerged in October – and the precious metals rallied hard – the USD Index eventually cut through 94, 95, and then 96 like a knife through butter. And with the precious metals reversing sharply once again, I expect another rally to push the USD Index to ~98 over the medium term. Perhaps quite soon. And the implications for the precious metals sector, are bearish. On top of that, while overbought conditions elicited a short-term pullback, end-of-month turnarounds and / or rallies are commonplace for the greenback. For context, I warned that a consolidation was likely overdue by highlighting the USD Index’s overbought RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings with the red arrows above. Conversely, the blue vertical dashed lines above demonstrate how the USD Index often bottoms near the end of each month, and rallies often follow. And while the current consolidation may need some more time to run its course, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. To explain, after the USD Index recorded sharp rallies in June and July, consolidation phases unfolded before the uptrends continued. And while the secondary uprisings occurred at more moderate paces, the USD Index still managed to make new highs. As a result, ~98 should materialize during the winter months. Furthermore, if the forecast proves prescient, the USD Index’s strength will likely usher gold back to its previous 2021 lows. Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line below would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. And while very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon), mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks have reversed sharply in recent weeks. And though the trio tried to ignore the USD Index’s recent uprising, I wrote on Jul. 23 that the time-tested relationship of ‘U.S. dollar up, PMs down’ will likely be a major storyline during the Autumn months. To that point, with the theme likely to continue over the medium term, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water - 07.12.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water - 07.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.12.2021 09:00
GBPUSD attempts to rebound The sterling consolidates as BOE officials stress due to inflationary pressure from a tight labor market. So far, rebounds have been an opportunity for trend followers to sell into strength. The pound is testing last December’s demand zone around 1.3200. An oversold RSI may help lift bids momentarily as sellers take profit. 1.3300 is the immediate resistance. Then the bulls will need to clear the origin of the latest sell-off at 1.3370 to attract more buying interest. On the downside, a breakout would send the price to 1.3100. NZDUSD sticks to downtrend The US dollar edged higher thanks to a rally in Treasury yields. Increasing divergence between the 20 and 30-day moving averages suggests a deterioration in market sentiment. On the hourly chart, a short-lived rebound has struggled to stay above 0.6780. And that is a sign that the bears are still in control of the direction. 0.6700 is the next support. Its breach would extend the sell-off to November 2020’s lows near 0.6600. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound with 0.6810 as the closest resistance. US 30 breaks higher The Dow Jones recoups losses as the omicron variant may have less impact than feared. The index bounced off last October’s lows around 34000. An oversold RSI in this demand zone has attracted a crowd to buy the dips. A break above 34950 and then 35300 would prompt short-term sellers to cover, paving the way for a sustainable rally. 35950 would be a key hurdle and its breach may turn the cautious mood around and resume the bullish trend. 34700 is the first support when the bulls try to catch their breath.
Bitcoin, going from strength to strength

Bitcoin, going from strength to strength

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.12.2021 14:07
Like a whale diving deep to gorge on krill to emerge even more empowered shortly after. When catching these cycles right, bitcoin is ever rewarding. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, up and up and up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2021. Typically, fortunes are slowly acquired and quickly destroyed, not so with bitcoin. Bitcoin’s up moves can be as dramatic as their declines. In addition, bitcoin seems bulletproof to fundamental attacks. With China’s ban on mining, its share of the global hash rate sank from 75% held in September 2019 to zero by now. Miners migrated to the US and had its 2019 4% hash rate rise to 35%. It is essential to remind oneself of facts like these, when emotions overcome one with doubt and confidence falters at these steep declines in bitcoin. At times when opportunity knocks and self-confidence is critical for accurate trade execution. The monthly chart above shows the roller coaster moves that can make even the stern trader doubtful, yet bitcoin rose closer to the sun after each cloud. We find six figure bitcoin prices to be likely within the next few months, as indicated in the very right green up arrow in the chart. Gold in Bitcoin, Daily Chart, measuring true value: Gold in Bitcoin, daily chart as of December 7th, 2021. Where we see bitcoin going from strength to strength, as well, is the relatively rare occurrence of fiat currencies being endangered by inflation to the level that we are right now. Fortunes can change hands quickly. Typically, procrastination is fueled by the belief of a rise in the cost of things. In reality, currency is less valuable. We, as such, encourage you not to measure everything in your country’s currency. We find measurements towards a gold price or a bitcoin price a more realistic view of price/value changes. The chart above shows how the relationship between gold and the bitcoin price changed over the short term, with bitcoins’ recent sharp decline.   BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, in the not to distant future: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2021. A six-sigma event risk in the overall market environment is always present. Such a market crash would temporarily drag bitcoin to lower prices and needs to be reflected in your money management. Other than that, we see prices right here as a good starting zone for the next push-up which should exceed all-time highs in the not-too-distant future, as portrayed in the above chart. Bitcoin, going from strength to strength: No matter what we tell ourselves, when prices decline, we feel fearful. It is always hard to step into such selling pressure for a low-risk entry spot based on the action/ reaction principle to be part of the next cycle up.  Moreover, practice and planning are required to be part of these upswings and to ride the wave. Our quad strategy aims to reduce initial risk quickly after an entry has been made. Last Friday’s entries near the lows of the day allowed for a more than ten percent profit-taking on half of the position size, a target we call “financing.” Unheard of in any other liquid, low-risk market. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 7th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Alibaba Stock Price and Forecast: Why is BABA stock going up?

Alibaba Stock Price and Forecast: Why is BABA stock going up?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.12.2021 15:59
BABA stock rallies over 10% on Monday in broad rally. Chinese names have suffered as DIDI delisting hits sentiment. BABA and others rally on Monday as China cuts commercial bank reserve requirements. Chinese stocks are nothing if not volatile, and this continued on Monday with huge rallies in most names. The reason was that China cut the reserve requirement for commercial banks in an effort to try and pump liquidity into the system. This can be taken two ways, and investors chose to see the positives. China is struggling to contain problems in the banking and property sectors from spreading, and the travails of Evergrande Group have been well documented. Evergrande was due to pay $82.5 million on Monday, but we are still in the dark on whether it met this latest payment or not. Bloomberg is reporting that another Chinese developer, Kaisa Group Holdings, received a forbearance proposal from bondholders on Tuesday. A forbearance proposal would be a form of an agreed delay or reduction in repayments. If agreed by both bondholders and the company, it averts a formal debt default. BABA chart, 15-minute Alibaba (BABA) stock news BABA stock has been under pressure throughout 2021 as a wave of negative sentiment hit Chinese equities and in particular Chinese tech names. This was kickstarted by BABA itself as it had to shelve the proposed spin-off IPO of ANT Group late in 2020. China then began taking a more cautious approach to its tech sector as worries over the huge amounts of data generated by them escalated. Didi Group (DIDI) did manage to get its IPO off the ground in New York but now plans to delist to Hong Kong. Alibaba stock is down 47% so far in 2021 and 22% over the last month as the sell-off has accelerated. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Investors may rejoice at the current bounce in Chinese tech stocks, but this has all the makings of yet another dead cat bounce. Take a look at the monthly chart below. BABA has broken the huge $130 level, which was really the last hope of support. Now it is lookout below until $100. The longer-term view is strongly negative until $169 is broken to the upside. Alibaba chart, monthly Shorter-term traders will be aware of the 9-day moving average offering resistance at $127.56. The MACD, stochastics and RSI all remain in bearish territory. The 15-minute chart does show short-term support at $112 with a large amount of volume at that level on Friday that provided a base for Monday's rally. This may carry on for Tuesday as risk assets are due to bounce, but $130 will likely cap any further gains. Alibaba daily chart above and the 15-minute chart below. The 15-minute shows the large support volume at $112.  
Oil and more...

Oil and more...

Luke Suddards Luke Suddards 07.12.2021 17:07
Oil: Crude has been rocketing higher after positive news flow with regards to omicron. Early evidence from South Africa indicates that ICU and oxygen usage are lower than previous waves at similar points on the timeline as well as those in hospital being largely unvaccinated. Based on this small sample size of evidence (which makes me still cautious) this leads one to believe omicron seems more transmissible, but less severe. Fauci (Biden’s Chief Medical Adviser) also shared optimism over the weekend stating that early signals show not a whole lot of severity. GlaxoSmithKline Plc also announced from their recent research that their Covid-19 antibody treatment is effective against mutations in omicron. Risk assets, which oil is falls into got a boost from this and current price action indicates some hot money has flowed back into the black liquid. Adding fuel to the bullish fire we had news that Iran-US Nuclear talks have stumbled a bit. Looking at the daily chart, technicals are strong with an oversold bounce having taken place with $68 support holding. Price is now above its 200-day SMA. Targets wise, on the upside the 21-day EMA around $76 and $78 will be important. On the downside $73.5 (just above the 200-day SMA) will be key. AUDUSD: The RBA left their policy settings unchanged as expected by the market. On the technicals, looking at the 1-hour chart here we can see price is facing some resistance in the form of the intersection of the 200 period SMA, downtrend line and 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI is in overbought territory. Could we see a dip lower towards the 0.705 area between the 21 period EMA and the 50 period SMA. On the upside 0.715 would be important. EURJPY: EURJPY on the 1 hour chart has been fluctuating between the 128.5 and 127.5 range bounds. Keep this one on your radar if you like playing the range.
Market Quick Take - December 8, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 8, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.12.2021 09:06
Macro 2021-12-08 08:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Equity markets blasted sharply higher yesterday as the market rushed to erase the concerns triggered by the omicron virus outbreak, as well, perhaps as due to the recent clear shift into a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve. Overnight, the Chinese renminbi strengthened to match its strongest level this year versus the US dollar as China has been sending stronger signals that it is set to stimulate growth next year. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - global equities were significantly lifted yesterday due to more positive evidence over the Covid-19 variant Omicron with Nasdaq 100 futures up 3.1% and extending the momentum today in early European trading hours. This was the biggest single day rally in US technology stocks in nine months. The key resistance level is at the 16,435 level which was the local resistance level a couple of times back in late November. USDCNH – The USDCNH rate has plunged to match the lows of the year just above 6.35 after yesterday saw the USD weakening sharply on a resurgence of risk sentiment. A break of the lows would shift the focus to the post-2015 foreign exchange regime shift lows of 2018. It is notable that China has maintained a strong renminbi policy even as the USD has strengthened recently amidst the more hawkish Fed shift and despite weak EM currencies elsewhere. The stronger price action since yesterday may be on hopes that China’s growth is set to pick up on its new apparent shift toward more stimulus and as omicron covid news has eased some of the initial uncertainties. USDCAD – the USD has turned lower on the resurgence of risk appetite after initial blows from the omicron variant news, that particularly hit oil prices hard, taking CAD and other oil-sensitive currencies down with it. The last two sessions have seen a sharp repricing of USDCAD from above 1.2800 to well below 1.2700 yesterday, ahead of today’s Bank of Canada meeting (previewed below). Whether USDCAD can continue to erase the rally off the sub-1.2300 lows will likely depend on the degree to which global markets can get back on track with pricing a stronger economic outlook and a full return of the commodities bull market, led by oil prices. The Bank of Canada will likely fulfill market expectations of hawkish guidance as it is likely warming up for a January hike. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher for a second day but has so far found resistance at the 200-day moving average, currently at $1792.50. A general improvement in risk appetite has supported a steady but so far unimpressive recovery from last week’s slump. Focus on silver (XAGUSD) which is also trying to establish support at $22 following its recent 13% drop. Focus on omicron developments through its indirect impact on bonds and the dollar. Copper (COPPERUSMAR22) meanwhile remains stuck in a relatively tight range, but supported by Chinese trade data which showed a strong pickup last month. The metal’s loss of momentum during 2H-21 has seen the speculative long being cut to near an 18-month low. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) trades lower after an industry report pointed to the biggest gain in US stockpiles of oil and products since February. Overall, the market has put in a strong performance since last week's slump in the belief the omicron variant is unlikely to derail the global recovery. Flare-ups around the world resulting in temporary lockdowns is however likely to prevent the market from returning to pre-omicron levels at this point. The API last night reported a 3.1-million-barrel build in oil stocks with a 2.4 million rise at Cushing helping send the WTI prompt spread down to just $0.2/b after trading close to $2 in early November. The EIA in its Short-term energy outlook lowered its 2022 Brent average price to $70 as the agency still sees a surplus emerging next year. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). The front part of the US yield curve rose yesterday, with 3-year yields breaking above 1% ahead of the US treasury auction. The move helped to attract high demand from investors. The 3-year note sale was priced at 1%, the highest auction yield since February 2020. Following the auction, yields fell slightly with news concerning the debt ceiling contributing to this trend. The house passed a bill that makes the debt ceiling faster to raise, it will be necessary to have a simple majority vote at the senate. It decreases the chances of default in mid-December easing the compressing forces on long-term yields. However, the expectations of tighter monetary policies continue to put upward pressure on short-term yields, while long-term yields remain compressed by Covid distortions. Therefore, we continue to see scope for a bear flattening of the yield curve. Today, the focus is going to be on the 10-year US Treasury auction. What is going on? Pfizer covid vaccine offers partial protection from omicron variant, according to early study. Researchers in South Africa saw a very large reduction in the production of antibodies for patients who had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine who were infected with the omicron variant of covid, suggesting that immune protection is far lower, but not completely lost. US President Biden warns Russian President Putin on Ukraine attack – in a video conference call lasting some two hours yesterday, Biden said that the US and its allies would support Ukraine with “strong” measures if attacked, both in the form of “defensive material” and economic measures while Putin blames NATO and its overtures to Ukraine for the tense situation. Sources indicate that the US could push to have the Nord Stream 2 pipeline shut off if Russia invades Ukraine. US House Approves Bill that would allow Senate to raise debt ceiling with a simple majority vote. This avoids the prospect of brinksmanship over the debt ceiling issue, as the Democrats can pass the vote in the Senate without Republican help. The debt ceiling issue was set to hit crunch time as early as next week and could theoretically have raised the specter of a US default. How high the Democrats could raise the debt ceiling via this process is not yet known. HelloFresh warns of lower operating profit in 2022. The fresh meal-kit company says that it sees FY22 adjusted EBITDA of €500-580mn vs est. €630mn expected by analysts driven by rising input costs. What are we watching next? Today’s Bank of Canada meeting, which is likely to tilt hawkish. With the US Fed having made a clear switch to focusing on inflation fighting, and after Bank of Canada governor Macklem penned an op-ed in the Financial Times on the need for a being ready to respond with the appropriate tools if inflation proves more sustained, the market is leaning for more hawkish Bank of Canada guidance at today’s meeting at minimum, with a minority of observers actually looking for a rate hike at today’s meeting, though most expect a “set-up” meeting for a rate hike in January. This week’s earnings: Today’s focus is UiPath which is part of the bubble stocks segment and the meme stock GameStop as both stocks are a good barometer on risk sentiment. Analysts expect UiPath to deliver 42% revenue growth in Q3 (ending 31 October). Wednesday: Huali Industrial Group, GalaxyCore, Kabel Deutschland, Dollarama, Brown-Forman, UiPath, GameStop, RH, Campbell Soup Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0815 – ECB President Lagarde to speak0830 – ECB’s Guindos to Speak1310 – ECB's Schnabel to speak1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision1500 – US JOLTS Job Openings survey1530 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories2130 – Brazil Selic Rate Announcement2205 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak0001 – UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance0130 – China Nov. CPI / PPI   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Edges Lower

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Edges Lower

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.12.2021 09:07
EURUSD seeks support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s Q3 GDP beat expectations. A previous rebound was capped by the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the bearish sentiment still prevails. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area has prompted short-term buyers to take profit. The pair has met support above 1.1240. The bulls will need to lift offers around 1.1330 before they could attract momentum buyers. A bearish breakout would send the price to the floor at 1.1190. Its breach would trigger a new round of sell-off. AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar soared after the RBA remained optimistic about the economic recovery. The pair saw strong buying interest at the psychological level of 0.7000, which also sits near November 2020’s lows. An oversold RSI on the daily chart compounds the ‘buying-the-dips’ behavior. An initial pop above 0.7070 forced bearish trend followers to cover their latest bets. 0.7170 would be the next target though the RSI’s overbought situation may limit the surge. 0.7040 is the first support for buyers to regroup and accumulate. USDJPY attempts to rebound The yen stalled after Japan’s GDP showed an unexpected contraction in Q3. A break below the daily support at 112.70 has put the bulls on the defensive. The latest consolidation is a sign of indecision as to whether the correction would continue. The greenback found support over 112.50 and a close above 113.95 could help the bulls regain the upper hand. Then the psychological level of 115.00 would be the next step before the uptrend could resume. On the downside, a fall below 113.10 would retest the key support at 112.50.
Who Wants to Buy Bitcoin Now?

Who Wants to Buy Bitcoin Now?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.12.2021 08:40
Since yesterday, Bitcoin has gone from almost $52K to $50.7K. On Tuesday, the crypto market was green on nearly all fronts, including ETH, ADA, XRP, etc. And although the Fear Index continued to remain in the horror zone with 26 points, everyone was buying altcoins. However, BTC did not gain a foothold above the resistance at $51,800, so it is premature to talk about conquering the heights and completing the correction. Perhaps this is not even a correction now, but a search for the actual price without rose-coloured glasses and excessive optimism. Whether there are still those who want to ride up at their own expense on the market, we will only find out when Bitcoin rises above $56K. A Grayscale poll found that 26% of American investors have already bought BTC. So, apparently, we just need the remaining 74% to join in. But do they have any motivation? Moreover, the United States has introduced cryptocurrencies into its anti-corruption strategy, although exactly how this will affect the market is unclear. Aside from the local downward trend in Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market remains bullish, rapidly changing sentiment and moving from correction to growth. Based on the posts on Twitter, the popularity of cryptocurrencies is only growing. Thus, in partnership with the Gemini crypto exchange, the largest bank in Colombia, Bancolombia, added transaction services with BTC, ETH, LTC, and BCH to its list. Video game developer Ubisoft has launched an NFT platform, and blockchain project Spiral, a division of Jack Dorsey's Block, will improve Bitcoin's Lightning Network. Among the small altcoins, the hot class of projects related to the metauniverses remains. This topic is so popular that almost any new project considers it its duty to point out the potential for the development of this topic. It seems that investors are recruiting all newcomers to their portfolio, hoping to get an impressive profit if at least one project hits. However, you should be extremely careful. At the end of November, it seemed that the Covalent coin, issued six months ago, recovered relatively quickly from the traditional drawdown in the first months of its life. However, since the beginning of December, its value has been rapidly decreasing, colouring the first eight days of the month in red and confidently remaining below the offering price. At the same time, this cryptocurrency suits well for intraday trading: for yesterday's session, for example, it grew by 3.62%, although this did not affect the overall “red” result.
FX Update: Risk sentiment comeback with a few twists

FX Update: Risk sentiment comeback with a few twists

John Hardy John Hardy 08.12.2021 15:14
Forex 2021-12-08 14:45 4 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment is well on its way to erasing the reaction to the news of the omicron variant of covid, with most reactions across FX adjusting as one would expect on an improved outlook, with commodity currencies performing best, while safe haven JPY and CHF trade weaker and the euro is unable to figure out what it wants to do. Adding to a more hopeful stance and a weaker US dollar overnight was China allowing its currency to push to new highs for the year, beyond the highs established back in May. FX Trading focus: CNY new highs for the year, strong resurgence in risk sentiment The US dollar has pushed lower this week on a resurgence in risk sentiment, led by fading omicron fears – particularly yesterday – but also on hopes that China is set to support the global growth outlook and signaling confidence by allowing the renminbi to push to new highs for the year versus the US dollar. The weaker US dollar elsewhere this week explains the timing of the large move to new lows in USDCNH, as the CNH has actually underperformed resurgent commodity FX and some EM FX this week even while it outperformed the strong US dollar this year on balance. If the USD is to weaken further from here, it would be no surprise to see CNH continuing higher versus the US dollar – perhaps even beyond the 2018 lows in USDCNH – while keeping it somewhat weaker versus other currencies against which it has appreciated so aggressively this year. China is clearly interested in defending the stability and purchasing power of the CNH versus the USD and its basket, but the extent of the revaluation is getting stretched if we look at the official CNY basket. In G10 FX, the resurgence in risk sentiment has boosted the usual suspects and weighed against the other usual suspects, although a couple of unusual situations stick out: GBP and SEK: Sterling is in danger of breaking down versus the euro here after testing new lows for the year this morning in GBPUSD despite sterling’s former correlation with risk appetite, perhaps as a lot of air has been taken out of Bank of England expectations as the market has shifted the expected lift-off meeting to February of next year after pricing as early as November a couple of months ago. Late last week, the BoE’s normally hawkish Saunders sounded cautious on lifting off next week, while the day before yesterday Deputy Governor Broadbent advised looking “a couple of years ahead” in predicting that “these pressures on traded goods prices are more likely to subside than intensify”, although he did say wages could be an inflation driver. Chart: EURGBPEURGBP is poking at the 200-day moving average from the downside for the third time in recent months, and the less hawkish BoE may help trigger a further squeeze higher, especially if the 0.8600 prior pivot high falls. Next focus higher still comes in at the range highs from April-May near 0.8720. Source: Saxo Group SEK has traded sideways today rather than rallying, as one would expect, on the strong comeback in risk sentiment. The krona is historically one of the most highly risk sensitive currencies. Sure, the euro is largely stuck in the water here and the EU growth outlook has plenty of clouds over it with covid shut-downs etc, but EURSEK looks “wrong” relative to other reaction to the improved mood across markets, and should be lower. A statement today by Riksbank dove Jansson that it is hard to justify rate hikes and that a more active fiscal policy is the way forward likely held back SEK, as perhaps NOKSEK buying, judging from the last couple of session in that cross. In other developments, AUDNZD has cleared the important 1.0500 level, EURCHF is trying to pull higher but is still some way from challenging the important 1.0500 level. The CHF has not behaved anything like the JPY in recent months, failing to show sensitive in EURCHF, at least, to large shifts in safe haven years. Likely, to get EURCHF off the mat, we’ll need to see a broader EUR rally that includes EURUSD on a brightening outlook for EU growth. Hard to see how it gets much worse, on a relative basis, at present (covid shutdowns, energy crunch, etc…) The Bank of Canada is out just after pixel time for this article. The market is leaning for hawkish guidance for a sure rate hike at the January meeting, which is very likely what it will get. The degree to which CAD can continue to rally will also depend on whether the now suddenly very CAD-supportive backdrop extends. USDCAD needs to bash back below 1.2500 to suggest a full reversal of the rally move off the sub-1.2300 lows in October is in the cards. Looking ahead, the next critical event risks are the Friday US November CPI print, and then the exercise next week in seeing how the market reacts to the crystallization of the now hawkish Fed’s adjustments to its new monetary policy statement and to the “dot plot” of its policy forecasts. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthStill mean reverting from the prior trends in most currencies, but far more upside needed from commodity currencies to fully reverse the prior trends. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.A strong move higher in EU yields taking EURJPY back well above the important 128.00 level of contention lately – watching whether the trend can flip positive in the week ahead. Elsewhere, note again that AUDNZD has pulled above the important 1.0500, that USDCHF flipped positive (even if it is mid-range after surviving another test of the 200-day moving average), and that NOKSEK is trying flipping positive after a very sharp rebound from recent lows. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1500 – US JOLTS Job Openings survey 2130 – Brazil Selic Rate Announcement 2205 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak 0001 – UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance 0130 – China Nov. CPI / PPI
Market fear evaporates for now

Market fear evaporates for now

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.12.2021 10:07
Podcast 2021-12-08 10:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  Today we look at the incredibly strong rebound in the major equity indices, in part on the lifting of omicron concerns, but practically speaking probably also on the lifting of downside hedges or gamma risk. A rundown of key FX developments, including the very strong Chinese renminbi, a look at where crude oil will focus next as only a portion of the huge recent slide has been erased, still positive roll curve for commodities, US political developments of note and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
The Pound: will the bears win the market without news?

The Pound: will the bears win the market without news?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.12.2021 09:27
The pound was down against the dollar on Tuesday. However, the very nature of the movements, as in the case of the euro rate, was far from ideal and straightforward. The mixed dynamics is clearly visible on the 30-minute timeframe, where the rate consolidated above a strong downtrend line with four pivots. The chart first crossed this line and then decided to resume the downward movement. It was as if the obvious buy signal turned out to be false, and it was possible to exit from it by the downward reversal of the MACD indicator. In general, it turns out that the downward trend of the pound has continued, but at the same time, the annual lows set on November 30th have not been updated so far. It should also be noted that during Tuesday, neither the UK nor the US saw a single important event or publication of economic data. They will not be there today either. Despite this, the volatility increased yesterday, and today, during the session, more calm movements are expected. On the 30-minute timeframe, the pound continues to have a downward trend. Earlier today, the downtrend line was broken, so both the continuation of the fall and a rematch, in which traders will try to return the rate above it, is possible. In general, the worsening epidemiological situation and the introduction of quarantine by the authorities of European countries make investors expect a drop in activity and sentiment by the end of the week.
New Year Resolutions: what to watch in 2022? | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Fireworks to Go On?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.12.2021 16:01
S&P 500 sharply extended gains, and credit markets indicate some continuation even if by pure inertia. A trend in place, stays in place until reversed – and yesterday‘s upswing was sufficiently supported by the credit markets. The late day retreat in HYG is an obvious warning of a pause possibly coming next, but not of a reversal – the improvements in market breadth speak for themselves. So, I‘m looking for a lean day today, and I‘m keenly watching bonds and cyclicals such as financials for further short-term direction clues. While yesterday‘s upswing was driven by tech, the daily rise in yields and inflation expectations (however modest) was balanced out by still more yield curve compression. The risk-on turn in credit markets isn‘t over, and the key question is whether HYG can extend gains or at least go only sideways for a while. Today‘s key premarket news propelling risk assets up, was about Pfizer extolling its three-dose alleged efficiency against Omicron – even though the news was sold into shortly thereafter, it has the power to buy more time and provide fuel for stocks and commodities. The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way. Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 gapped higher, and is once again approaching ATHs. Hold your horses though for it would take some time to get there. I would prefer to see broader participation within value, which isn‘t totally there at the moment. It‘s improving, but still. Credit Markets HYG upswing was considerably sold into, and that spells some consolidation ahead. The degree to which it spills over into stocks, remains to be seen. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still looking stable, and ever so slowly improving after the Fed hawkish turn hit. The central bank and real yields projections hold the key, but the countdown to higher prices is firmly on. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing indeed continued, and black gold looks set to consolidate gains unless value stocks spring some more to life later today. Anyway, the medium-term chart remains bullish. Copper Copper is another reason why I‘m not overly bullish for today – the red metal‘s base building looks to need a bit more time to play out. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still base building, and looking vulnerable. While a downswing isn‘t guaranteed, it can come and turn out to be sharp. Summary S&P 500 is likely to consolidate recent strong gain, not accelerating the surge today. The bulls within risk-on assets look to be slowly gaining the upper hand, and the opening part of today‘s analysis describes it‘s not a one-way street to fresh highs as the Fed has turned from a tailwind to a headwind. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Market Quick Take - December 9, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 9, 2021

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 09.12.2021 09:48
Macro 2021-12-09 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  Global markets tried to gin up additional enthusiasm yesterday on the announcement yesterday from Pfizer that three shots of vaccine may offer far more protection from the omicron variant, but the market traded largely sideways as the sharp rally from the prior day was consolidated. The US dollar is showing signs of consolidating lower ahead of arguably the last two major event risks for the year for the currency, the Friday US November CPI data and the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities momentum waned a bit yesterday and trading flat in early European trading hours. In Nasdaq 100 futures the 16,420 is the key resistance level to watch in today’s session. While Nasdaq 100 futures are flat this morning, Bitcoin is trading 2% lower which if it continues could spill over into US technology stocks as these pockets of the market are connected in terms of risk-off. Bubble stocks were the biggest gainers yesterday and provide another opportunity for retail investors to reduce exposure in bubble stocks ahead of the new year. EURUSD – The EURUSD rallied sharply yesterday as the US dollar was generally on its back foot, but a solid jump higher in EU sovereign bond yields and the official handover of power to the new German government coalition yesterday may have been elements supporting the rally. The move rose as high as 1.1350, just ahead of tactical resistance near 1.1375, the last hurdle ahead of more major trend resistance near 1.1500. In many past cycles, the calendar roll has proven a major inflection point for EURUSD. The December 15 FOMC meeting and December 16 ECB meeting both look important for the provision of new guidance, with the FOMC already having made a clear hawkish shift, while the ECB will have to deliver revised inflation forecasts and guidance on balance sheet policy after its emergency “PEPP” form of QE is set to end in March. AUDUSD – The Aussie has undergone a significant sentiment shift from one of the weakest G10 currencies to one of the strongest in recent sessions, in part on the reversal in risk sentiment, but also aided by China signaling a willingness to ease policy. Speculative positioning in the US futures market suggest a very heavy short position that, if similar to positioning in the OTC market, could provide significant fuel for a squeeze higher in the currency if the backdrop of improving risk sentiment and a focus on inflation risks further boosts the price action in key commodities like iron ore, coking coal and other metals. At any rate, AUDUSD has reversed up through the first resistance near 0.7100 and is now staring down the next pivotal area into 0.720-7250, needing to blast through this and then some to suggest an attempt to put in a bottom after touching the huge 0.7000 level within the last week. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) trades higher for a fourth day as omicron demand concerns continue to ease and speculators accumulate length following last week’s washout. Flare-ups around the world resulting in temporary lockdowns is however likely to prevent the market from returning to pre-omicron levels at this point. The EIA reported a small 240k barrels weekly decline in crude stocks while inventories of fuel rose by a combined 6.6 million barrels. Next level of resistance in Brent being the 21-day moving average at $77.20 followed by $77.60. Gold (XAUUSD) remains stuck below the 200-day moving average, currently at $1793 with the market struggling for direction ahead of Friday’s key US inflation data. Support from a softer dollar continues to be offset by worries that a succession of expected US rate hikes in 2022 will drive up US real yields, thereby reducing a key source of support for gold. Ahead of Friday’s CPI data, the market has priced in three rate hikes next year with the first potentially coming as soon as May. Focus on silver (XAGUSD) which following its recent 13% slump is trying to establish support at $22, thereby supporting a lower XAUXAG ratio has stopped rising after finding resistance above 80 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Haven bid for bonds faded as news hit the market that a third vaccine dose gives coverage for the omicron strain. Ten-year US Treasury yields rose above 1.50%, and yesterday’s 10-year US Treasury auction wasn’t as good as the 3-year auction the previous day. It tailed 0.4bps pricing at 1.518%. The bid-to-cover rose to 2.43x, a little lower than the past six auctions average. The yield curve bear steepened. Yet, we expect long-term yields to remain compressed if Covid infections still are an issue and lead to more restrictions. Today, the Treasury is selling 30-year bonds. If the selloff in the long part of the yield curve continues, we might witness a weak auction. What is going on? China PPI falls less than expected in November as it rises 12.9% year-on-year. The PPI number is widely considered a global inflation barometer as China is “the world’s factory”. The rise was higher than the 12.1% year-on-year expected, but lower than October’s 13.5%. The November China CPI number came in slightly cooler than expected at 2.3% year-on-year versus 2.5% expected and 1.5% in October. Pfizer says three shots of its vaccine offer more significant protection against the omicron covid variant. This news from yesterday sounded more promising than the news from just yesterday from a preliminary South African study that patients vaccinated with two shots showed some, but heavily reduced, production of antibodies in patients with the omicron variant. Pfizer found the same, but says that a third shot can bring the antibody response to similar levels as for the prior covid variants. Pfizer also said an omicron-targeted version of its vaccine could be ready in March. Buffett-backed digital lender Nubank to start trading today. The Brazilian-based digital bank Nubank is raising $2.6bn in its IPO becoming of the biggest IPOs this year with shares priced at $9 and first day of trading today on NYSE. This will mark one of the biggest publicly listed fintech companies in the world and provide a glimpse into the feasibility of running a large digital only bank. Bank of Canada upgrades language on inflation, likely set for January rate hike. The new Bank of Canada policy statement dropped a reference from the prior statement on “temporary” inflation forces, though it still maintained the expectation that inflation would drop toward 2 percent in the second half of next year. The strength in the jobs market was noted. Overall, the hawkish language changes were clear, if relatively small relative to rather aggressive market shift in expectations, and Canadian yields eased a few basis points lower at the front part of the yield curve, though a January rate hike from the bank remains likely, according to market expectations. Brazil hikes policy rate 150 basis points, BRL sees sharp gains. The rate hike to 9.25% was in line with expectations, but the central bank delivered hawkish guidance for another hike of the same size at the February meeting as the bank has clearly gone into aggressive inflation fighting mode. The Brazilian real responded strongly, gaining some 1.4% versus the US dollar yesterday. The EU gas and power market went from bad to worse yesterday after an unplanned outage temporarily cut supplies from Norway’s giant Troll field. Coming on top of geopolitical risks related to Ukraine, low winter supplies from Russia, freezing cold weather and rapidly declining stocks, these developments have driven Dutch TTF one month benchmark gas back above €100 per MWh or $34 per MMBtu. With rising demand for coal driving the cost of EU emissions to a fresh record above €90 per tons, the cost of power has surged as well. In Germany the one-year baseload contract reached a record €189 per MWh, or 5 times the long-term average. What are we watching next? WASDE on tap - Ahead of today’s monthly update on world supply and demand, the grains sector has seen a slight drift lower during the past week as the market tried to gauge the impact of the omicron variant. Today’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand report (WASDE) will primarily focus on ending stocks with expectations pointing to a relatively quiet update. US corn stockpiles are expected to have fallen slightly from November while wheat and soybean stocks are both expected to be higher, both in the US and globally. The EU is set to decide by December 22 whether investments in gas and nuclear energy should be labelled climate friendly. The design of the EU green investment classification system is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition, especially given the need to reduce the usage of coal, the biggest polluter. This week’s earnings: Today’s focus is Oracle which is still struggling to find an attractive growth trajectory in the age of cloud applications, SaaS business models, and more open-source software on databases with flat revenue over the past four fiscal years. Lululemon has been one of the big winners during the pandemic gaining tailwind from home exercising, but generally the company taps into a longer-term trend of personal health. Analysts expect Lululemon to report 29% y/y revenue growth in Q3 (ending 31 October). Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Hungary Rate Announcement 1200 – Mexico Nov. CPI 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims 1530 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 1700 – USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) 1800 – US Treasury 30-year T-Bond auction   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto markets recover, but BTC could ruin the party

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto markets recover, but BTC could ruin the party

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.12.2021 09:24
Akash Girimath Bitcoin price continues to stride with $53,687 and $56,276 as its short-term targets. Ethereum price pauses before retesting the $4,659, followed by the $4,777 hurdles. Ripple price to face a declining resistance level before it retests $0.956. Bitcoin price has been on a steady recovery phase after the recent flash crash. Ethereum and Ripple follow big crypto and are on their trajectories of retracement. The upswing for BTC is likely to continue, but investors need to note that a downswing might emerge such that a range forms. Bitcoin price eyes higher highs Bitcoin price is recovery from its December 4 crash and is currently hovering around $50,000 psychological level. This ascent comes as BTC tries to flip the inefficiency left by the bears during the recent sell-off. While $53,687 is still the short-term resistance barrier BTC wants to tag, investors need to know that BTC might sweep the swing low at $46,698 and set a trading range. Although this might result in a brief correction, it can serve as an opportunity to accumulate for sidelined buyers. Clearing $53,687 will open the path for Bitcoin price to tag the next level at $56,276. In total, this run-up would constitute an 11% ascent from the current position. BTC/USD 4-hour chart On the other hand, if Bitcoin price retraces to the extent that it produces a lower low below the December 4 swing low at $40,867, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Ethereum price promptly follows BTC Ethereum price has rallied roughly 30% from its December 4 swing low at $3,370 and shows signs that it wants to go higher. The $4,493 resistance barrier is the first level ETH will encounter. Clearing this level will place $4,659 and $4,777 hurdles in its path. Ethereum will easily tag these levels, but the holders should keep a close eye on the all-time high at $4,878, as ETH might revisit. In a highly bullish case, Ethereum price could extend beyond its record level and set up a new one at $5,000. ETH/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Ethereum price, a failure to breach through the $4,493 hurdle could indicate a weakness among buyers. If ETH retraces lower and produces a lower low below $3,890, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Ripple price faces two hurdles Ripple price has seen a considerable recovery, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. As it stands, the XRP price looks ready to tackle the bear trend line extending from November. Any uptick in buying pressure pushes the remittance token toward this barrier. A decisive 4-hour candlestick close above this trend line at roughly $0.87 will set a higher high and confirm an uptrend. This move could attract sidelined buyers and propel XRP price to retest the $0.956 barrier. In total, this climb would represent a 15% gain from the current position. XRP/USD 4-hour chart On the contrary, if Ripple price fails to slice through the declining trend line, it will suggest that the sellers are not done offloading. In this situation, the XRP price will knock on the $0.764 support level. A breakdown of this barrier that produces a lower low will invalidate the bullish thesis for XRP.  
Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

EUR/USD Forecast: Further near term gains in the docket

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.12.2021 09:24
EUR/USD Current price: 1.1300 Valeria Bednarik Stocks markets are giving mixed hints on sentiment heading into Wall Street’s opening. US Treasury yields recovered from an early dip, challenging weekly highs. EUR/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, needs to clear the 1.1310 resistance. The EUR/USD pair recaptured the 1.1300 level heading into the US opening, although so far, there has been no follow-through. The market´s mood is unstable, as investors are still struggling to price in the latest coronavirus developments and the latest from central banks after the Fed announced it might speed up tapering in their next meeting. The American currency managed to advance during European trading hours, following softer US government bond yields and as stocks traded with a sour tone. Equities bounced, putting mild pressure on the greenback, but as government bond yields remain strong, the dollar’s decline is modest. The EU did not release relevant macroeconomic figures, while the US published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended December 3, up 2% from -7% in the previous month. The US will publish October JOLTS Job Openings. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades near a daily high of 1.1307, mildly bullish in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is currently extending above its 20 and 100 SMAs, both converging flat a few pips below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators crossed their midlines into positive territory, maintaining their bullish slope. The pair needs to break through the 1.1310 resistance to have further chances of advancing. Support levels: 1.1265 1.1220 1.1185 Resistance levels: 1.1310 1.1345 1.1380
What Happens After a Bullish Stampede?

What Happens After a Bullish Stampede?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 08.12.2021 15:14
  The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag. With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19: While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days. On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic. To that point, after volatility erupted on cue, the DAX 30 suffered an intraday peak-to-trough decline of 7.8%, the CAC 40 dropped by 7.3%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 5.2%. Please see below: However, with overzealous equity bulls back at it again on Dec. 7, the PMs benefited from the risk-on sentiment. However, with the fundamental problems still present, investors may have set themselves up for more disappointment. To explain, with hedge funds increasing their short bets a little too late, Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage reported that last week, “US equities on the GS Prime book made up more than 85% of the global $ net selling (-1.4 SDs), driven by short sales and to a lesser extent long sales (9 to 1).”  In a nutshell: hedge funds increased their short bets at the worst possible time. Please see below: Thus, with the Dec. 7 rally driven mainly by a reversal of these positions, the profound short squeeze helped uplift the PMs. For example, Bank of America data shows that last week’s corporate buybacks were the highest weekly total since March. And by repurchasing nearly $3.4 billion of their own stock (focus on the first blue column from the left), their bids helped calm the S&P 500’s selling pressure. Please see below: What’s more, while Bank of America said that hedge funds and retail investors somewhat bought the dip last week (though, they’re still net-sellers over the last four weeks), corporations did much of the heavy lifting.  As a result, with retail investors running out of gas and hedge funds mainly closing out their shorts on Dec. 7, the S&P 500 should resume its correction. More importantly, though, mining stocks’ recent strength should wilt away as the drama unfolds.  Please see below: And now for the grand reveal: corporations' buyback blackout period begins on Dec. 10. And since they can't repurchase more shares until the New Year, the elephant in the room won't be able to support the S&P 500. Likewise, after hedge funds covered their shorts on Dec. 7, short-covering won't be able to support the S&P 500 either. As a result, mining stocks should suffer if the negativity resurfaces over the next few weeks. Please see below: To explain, the red line above tracks the hourly movement of the S&P 500, while the gold line above tracks the hourly movement of the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners often follow in the S&P 500’s footsteps. And with the S&P 500 setting itself up for another drop, the GDXJ ETF likely won’t be far behind. To that point, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Dec. 10 and the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 14/15, sources of volatility will arrive at a time when corporations are stuck on the sidelines.  For context, I wrote on Nov. 12: I’ve highlighted on several occasions how the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) often leads the following month’s headline CPI. And after the former increased by 2% month-over-month (MoM) on Nov. 9 – which is a material MoM increase – and by 22.2% YoY (a new 2021 high), it implies a headline CPI print of roughly 5.75% to 6.25% when the data is released on Dec. 10. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the commodity PPI, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair have a close connection. In addition, after expectations for September were pulled forward to July, and then expectations for July were pulled forward to June, now, the probability of a Fed rate hike in May 2022 has reached ~69%. Please see below: Also noteworthy, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Dec. 3 that “the danger now is that we get too much inflation.... It's time for the [Fed] to react at upcoming meetings.” He added: “the inflation numbers are high enough that I think [ending the taper by March] would really help us to create the optionality to do more if we had to, if inflation doesn't dissipate as expected in the next couple of months.” For context, Bullard reiterated that he expects two Fed rate hikes in 2022. The bottom line? While the bulls stampeded through Wall Street on Dec. 7, things aren’t as rosy as they appear. And while the PMs benefited from the renewed optimism, their tepid rallies are even more fragile. Moreover, with another inflation print on the horizon and the FOMC’s Dec. 15 decision including its Summary of Economic Projections, the hawkish revelations could rattle the financial markets. And with corporate buybacks starting their holiday vacation on Dec. 10, stock market investors are on their own to navigate what comes next. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Dec. 7, as risk-on sentiment reigned supreme. However, with the S&P 500 rallying by more than 2% and WTI rallying by nearly 4%, the PMs’ daily upswings were relatively muted. As a result, precious metals investors sense that caution is warranted. And with their trepidation a sign of heightened anxiety, they likely realize that going long the PMs involves much more risk than reward. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
US yields repositioning for eventual lift-off?

US yields repositioning for eventual lift-off?

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.12.2021 11:35
Podcast 2021-12-09 10:00 20 minutes to read Summary:  Today we look at the US treasury yields in the wake of yesterday's action as omicron variant concerns fade further, especially whether the longer end of the yield curve is set to set considerably higher as the Fed moves into a hiking regime next year, as has been the case in cycles past. Thoughts on credit, key equity stories, whether EURUSD can make a turn here, the remarkable dispersion in equity market and energy market forecasts for next year, Europe's ongoing energy crunch and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Continues To Soften

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Continues To Soften

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.12.2021 10:14
USDCAD tests key support The Canadian dollar inched lower after the BOC left its interest rate unchanged as expected. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 1.2850, a triple top on the daily chart. A drop below 1.2720 has forced out short-term buyers. 1.2580 is the next support and it sits on the 30-day moving average. A bearish breakout would deepen the correction to the psychological level of 1.2500. On the upside, the bulls will need to clear 1.2770 before they could have another attempt at the supply zone. USOIL rebounds from demand zone WTI crude bounces back on signs that the new virus strain has a limited impact on demand. Price action met strong buying interest near last August’s lows at 62.00, a major support from the daily chart to keep the uptrend intact. A bullish RSI divergence in this congestion area indicates a loss of momentum in the bearish drive. Then a rally above 69.30 forced the sellers to exit, opening the door for an extension towards 79.00. The initial surge has pushed the RSI into the overbought territory. 68.00 is an immediate support. GER 40 to test major resistance The Dax 40 recoups losses as fears of the omicron variant start to subside. Last October’s lows near 14900 have proven to be a solid support. The rally above 15520 stirred up volatility as the last sellers rushed to the exit. The bulls are pushing towards 15920, where the index took a nosedive in late November. A bullish breakout could attract more buying interest and turn market sentiment around. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI has caused a pullback, giving time for the bulls to accumulate. 15300 is the closest support.
Nubank to test fintech appetite; Umicore signs JV with VW

Nubank to test fintech appetite; Umicore signs JV with VW

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 09.12.2021 13:56
Equities 2021-12-09 13:30 8 minutes to read Summary:  Nubank is set to start trading today on NYSE after closing one of the largest IPOs this year raising $2.6bn. Nubank is a digital first and Brazil's fastest growing bank expected to grow net revenue by 100% in 2021 and backed by Berkshire Hathaway, and will be seen as a major test of the fintech business model and investor risk appetite for this type of businesses. We also take a look at the Belgian-based Umicore which is an unique company set to gain from the green transformation and especially the adoption of electric vehicles. The company has just signed a major JV with Volkswagen. The most valuable bank in Latin America Nubank is a Brazilian-based digital first bank with 40 million accounts and net revenue growth of almost 100% expected in 2021. The bank lists Berkshire Hathaway, Sequoia Capital and Tencent as its shareholders, and is raising $2.6bn in its IPO after reducing its valuation by 20% last week a demand was weaker than estimated. The shares were priced yesterday at $9 and will start trading today on NYSE with the Saxo ticker code NU:xnys. The bank is still not profitable but will still get a market value close to $42bn making Nubank the most valuable publicly listed bank in Latin America ahead of Itau Unibanco. This is a major milestone for the fintech industry and if the IPO turns out to be well-priced and Nubank delivers on expectations in the coming years then it will pave the way for many more fintech companies going public. The overall industry is still lacking to become profitable on a broad scale and Nubank will be the first test. What is interesting about Nubank is that it is rare to see a bank with revenue of $1.04bn in the last 12 months going so fast as investors are used to look at banks being low growth. The deal also highlights that Berkshire Hathaway is slowly changing its behaviour as it was also part of the Snowflake IPO (pure cloud infrastructure play) showing that the investment company famous for not investing in digital technology companies is increasing exposure in these newer technologies. Source: Bloomberg Umicore signs long-term supplier contract with VW The Belgian company Umicore is likely unknown to most but with a market value of €10bn and a very green transformation oriented business strategy, it is a company investors will get used to hear about in the future. Yesterday, Umicore shares were down 9% because the company downgraded its outlook for its battery materials unit, but at the same time it announced a joint-venture (JV) with Volkswagen on supply of cathode materials to Volkswagen’s battery production. The JV expects to ramp up production from an initial output of 20 GWh to 160 GWh by the end of the decade, which is equivalent to power 2.2mn electric vehicles. Volkswagen has planned to build six battery factories in Europe to control the supply chain of the most key component of electric vehicles as the German carmaker drastically ramps up EV production. Back in October Umicore signed Lithium supply deals with Ganfeng Lithium, one of China’s largest producers, and Vulcan Energy Resources from Australia. Source: Saxo Group With the JV, Umicore is positioning itself as gaining a lot growth from adoption of electric vehicles which is expected to deliver very growth rates this decade. Besides its battery materials unit, it also has business units within emission control for traditional cars and materials recycling. Umicore is well positioned to grow with the green transformation and for a better understanding of Umicore’s business the June 2021 investor presentation gives a good overview. In the short-term the business is facing headwinds from lower production and new car registrations across key markets in North America, Europe, and China. Like our Green Transformation basket, Umicore is up 4% following a strong start to the year up 55% by August as the company had the right green profile, but green transformation has suffered lately in terms of sentiment as many green companies have difficulties lifting profitability. Umicore is expected to deliver €1.17bn in EBITDA in 2022 which means that the company is valued at 10x on EV/EBITDA 1-year forward, which is roughly a 25% discount to the MSCI World Index. The consensus sell-side target price is €46. As we wrote in our recent equity note Things are not adding up any longer in the car industry, the valuations on EV-makers have reached levels where expectations are likely exceeding what can be achieved in the coming years due to supply constraints. In our note, we suggest that investors might indirect ways to get exposure to the electrification of the transportation sector such as getting exposure to semiconductor manufacturers to the car industry, lithium miners, battery manufacturers, and Umicore also fits this group of alternatives for investors.
Frontrunning CPI

Frontrunning CPI

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.12.2021 15:50
S&P 500 rose as VIX retraced over half of its recent spike, but tech and value have a short-term tired look. Cyclicals turning down while utilities with staples barely budge in spite of a surge in yields? That looks really risk-off to me, and together with commodities and precious metals going nowhere, represents your usual setup before tomorrow‘s CPI announcement. So, count on some headwinds today.A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red. While I would prefer to see more copper strength for confirmation (almost as much as no question marks creeping into the crypto land), this is what we have – and it indicates that the path higher won‘t be steep. Neither in stocks, commodities or precious metals – as I wrote yesterday:(…) The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way.Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks ripe for a brief breather – the volume is drying up, and consolidation in the vicinity of ATHs shouldn‘t be unexpected.Credit MarketsHYG held up quite well on the day, but the stock market mood it translated into, was risk-off one as rising yields couldn‘t help cyclicals.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, positioned for the coming brief decline that has pretty good chances of being reversed right next. The countdown to higher prices and Fed mistake is firmly on, and the risks of being out of the market outweigh the patience now required.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, which I look to be resolved to the upside perhaps as early as tomorrow‘s regular session (I‘m not looking for CPI to send real assets down).CopperCopper is still quite lukewarm, and doesn‘t indicate a commodities surge right ahead. Some consolidation wouldn‘t be surprising now that half of the CRB Index downswing has been erased. Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum keep looking vulnerable – the yesterday discussed downswing possibility looks to be progressing, unfortunately for the bulls.SummaryS&P 500 is still likely to consolidate recent strong gain, and at the same time not to tank on tomorrow‘s inflation data. The (almost classical, cynics might say) anticipation is playing out in commodities and precious metals today, but I‘m looking for the downside to be reversed tomorrow as the yields vs. inflation expectations duo hint at. Fed fears this early in the tapering cycle will likely look to be a blip on the screen in the topping process hindsight.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Market Digest Friday 10 Dec; hold your breath, big elements to watch inflation, volatility and iron ore

Market Digest Friday 10 Dec; hold your breath, big elements to watch inflation, volatility and iron ore

Jessica Amir Jessica Amir 10.12.2021 10:34
Equities 2021-12-10 00:00 4 minutes to read Summary:  Markets are facing speed bumps again as investors await key inflationary numbers and the Feds meeting outcome, key catalyst that will ultimately change market dynamics, with fiscal stimulus being taking away. The US benchmark the top 500 stocks fell from record high territory, falling for the first time in 4 days, while the ASX200 fell for the second day, dipping below its 50 day moving average. Growth names are being sold down and safe haven assets, bonds, the USD, the JPY, are gaining appeal. It is for three important reasons. Here is what you need to know and consider, plus the five elements to watch today. Firstly, investors are holding their breath ahead of key events: Friday’s US inflation data (tipped to show inflation rose 6.8% YOY in November), plus we are also seeing investors pre-empt that the Federal Reserve next week, will map out tapering and interest rate hikes for 2022. A poll by Reuters showed that 30 of the 36 economists expect the Fed to hike rates sooner than thought, rising rates four times from the third quarter of the year 2022 to the second quarter of 2023 (expecting rates to be 1.25-1.50%). This explains why investors took profits from nine of the major 11 US sectors overnight. So growth stocks and sectors that thrive in low interest rates; consumer discretionary, real estate and information technology, saw the most selling as a result. From a stock perspective Tesla fell 6%, Semiconductor giant Advanced Micro Devices, and Etsy-the e-commerce vintage store, both fell 5%, and chip maker Nvidia fell 4%. If you look at Saxo Markets themes that we track, you can also see the most money on a month-on-month basis, has come out of semiconductors, while the other themes we track are posting monthly gains. Secondly, it’s critical to be aware, the UK Prime Minister announced restrictions to curb Omicron’s spread -  so the UK entered new work-from-home guidance, that could cost the UK economy $2.6 billion a month (according to Bloomberg). Meanwhile, a study by a Japanese scientist found the new variant to be 4.2 times more transmissible in its early stage than delta. As such some companies are responding like Lyft saying their workforce can work remotely in 2022, while Jefferies asked staffers to WFH. This means, travel and tourism stocks could see short term pressure, Australian and US stocks that are exposed to the UK could also see pressure, while oil could see demand weakness here. Plus, it could be time to again rethink exposure to the office property sector, as it’s a likely to remain squeezed, while industrial and logistics real estate remain supported given the likely new shift to WFH. Thirdly – be aware of volatility. A measure of this, VIX CBOE Volatility Index rose for the first time in four days, rising back above the 50 day average. Volatility has fallen from its 12-month high and remains contained right now as Pfizer said its vaccine can neutralize the new COVID strain Omicron after three doses (two doses offer protection again severe disease). However, keep your ears to the ground. If tomorrow’s inflation data from the US is worse than expected, expect volatility to spike, and growth stocks to see further selling and expect safe haven assets (USD, bonds, USDJPY) to gain more attraction. Aside from the above – here’s 5 things to watch today; Firstly - let's go over Fortescue Metals (FMG) 1.FMG’s CEO, Elizabeth Gains just announced she is standing down, right in the thick of iron ore having a murky outlook. It’s not been an easy 12 month for FMG holders. FMG trades 7% lower this year, but it’s a far cry from its all-time high, down 30% from its peak as iron ore price remains in a bear market (down 40% from May). 2. FMG’s trading range has been restricted for two weeks as the world holds its breath to learn more about China’s property sector. FMG shares have broken out above their 50 day moving average but its trading has been even more so restricted over the last three days as its stock hit a key resistance level awaiting news from China. If good news comes, FMG could break out higher. But it looks murky. Majority of FMG revenue (94%) comes from iron ore, and its majority sold to China (90%) (unlike BHP that now diversifies its sales to other countries). And now… we are getting mixed signals from China, making iron ore’s outlook look hazy. 3. On the positive side; week-on-week Australian iron ore exports are up. China has increased its monthly imports of Australian iron ore in November, more than expected. This has supported the iron ore price rising 8.9% this week. 3. But on the negative side - Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers was just officially downgraded -labelled a defaulter by Fitch Ratings after failing to meet two coupon payments after a grace period expired Monday. This may now trigger cross defaults on Evergrande’s $19.2 billion of dollar debt. Also at the same time JP Morgan downgraded its outlook for iron ore expecting the iron ore to fall 7% to $92, while Citi expects seaborne iron ore prices to fall 60-$80/t in 2022 on Chinese policy changes. 4. However, Fortescue has been in the news this week, for its shift to a green future. Was this a tactic? A smoke Bomb? Yesterday FMG announced its Future Industries department signed a pact with the Indonesia to explore hydrogen projects. The day before Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) and AGL Energy (AGL) teamed up to explore repurposing NSW coal-fired power plants and turning them into green hydrogen production facilities – to hopefully create renewable electricity production, 250 megawatts (which will generate 30,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year). AGL and FMG will undertake a feasibility study to repurpose AGL’s Liddell and Bayswater power stations, that both accounted for 40% of NSW’s carbon dioxide emissions. Sheesh. Secondly  – Australian analyst rating changes to consider ANZ AU: Reiterated as a Bell Potter BUY, PT $30.00, RRL AU: Regis Resources Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT A$2.50 EBO NZ: EBOS Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT NZ$43.14 FMG AU: JPMorgan downgrades FMG from Overweight to Neutral, dropping its PT from $22 to $20. RIO AU: JPMorgan downgrades RIO from Overweight to Neutral, dropping its PT from 113.00 to 102. MIN AU:  Reiterated as JPMorgan hold/neutral, dropping its PT from $47 to $40 Thirdly  - what else to watch today Annual General Meetings: HMC AU, PDL AU, PH2 AU, SOL AU Other Shareholder Events: AOF AU, HMC AU THL NZ: Tourism Holdings Halted in NZ Pending Proposed Transaction ADPZ NA: APG Buys 16.8% Stake in Ausgrid from AustralianSuper EBO NZ: Ebos Successfully Raises A$642m From Share Placement Fourthly - Economic news out 8:30am: (NZ) Nov. Business NZ Manufacturing PMI, prior 54.3 8:45am: (NZ) Nov. Card Spending Total MoM, prior 9.5% 8:45am: (NZ) Nov. Card Spending Retail MoM, prior 10.1% Fifthly - Other news to keep in mind: Australia Seen Facing Steeper Borrowing Costs If Slow on Climate RBA Likely to Stick With QE Until Election Over, BofA Says      ---   Markets - the numbersUS Major indices fell: S&P 500 -0.7% Nasdaq -1.7% Europe indices closed lower: Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.6%,London’s FTSE 100 lost 0.2% flat, Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%Asian markets closed mixed: Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1%, China’s CSI 300 rose 1.7%. Yesterday Australia’s ASX200 fell 0.3% Futures: ASX200 hints of a 0.14% fall today Commodities: Iron ore rose 1.3% to $110.50. Gold fell 0.4%, WTI crude fell 2% to  $70.94 per barrel. Copper fell 1.4% Currencies: Aussie dollar trades 0.4% lower at 0.7146 US. Kiwi down 0.3% to 0.6788 per US$ Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield fell 3.5bps to 1.4871%,Australia 3-year bond yield fell 0.8bps to 0.95%, Australia 10-year bond yield rose 6bps to 1.68%
Bitcoin investors seem keen to capitalise on a very successful year

Bitcoin investors seem keen to capitalise on a very successful year

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.12.2021 09:40
For the third day in a row, bitcoin is hovering around $56.7K with a slight downward bias. The pressure from traditional financial markets is already hard to speak of as there has been some rebound. This time around, the stability of bitcoin dynamics is not a balance between a furious tug-of-war and a tight spring. Instead, we see neat selling on growth attempts, with bitcoin sellers turning the price around each time from ever-lower levels. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index lost another point, dropping to 31. However, its reading seems somewhat outdated, as the top coins have been trending in green so far today. Over the past 24 hours, the total capitalisation of the crypto market has risen by 0.85% to 2.62. During the week, a whole cycle of market sentiment shifted with a sharp dip, followed by recovery and a local renewal of highs. Still, already on Thursday, it was noticeable how enthusiastic buying was met with selling pressure. It seems that retail and short-term investors in cryptocurrencies are keen to capitalise on a very successful year. That said, it is hardly fair to speak of any fundamental break in the bullish trend. The market's optimism is also supported by ETHUSD. It picked up on Thursday on a drawdown below 4500. We have yet to find out whether this was a sign of the end of a mini-correction. This Friday promises to be very turbulent for the financial markets, which are near key levels ahead of the publication of the labour market data. It used to be the most unpredictable and meaningful market news, although now the Fed's interpretation of the published data sets the tone.
Apple (AAPL) Stock Price and Forecast: Can Apple take a bite out of $200 before year end?

Apple (AAPL) Stock Price and Forecast: Can Apple take a bite out of $200 before year end?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.12.2021 15:54
Apple stock powers on to more all-time highs on Wednesday. AAPL shares breach and close above $175. Is $200 a conceivable year-end target for Apple stock? Apple (AAPL) stock just continues to power on like a juggernaut. A powerful combination of momentum and fundamentals is pushing this one higher. Despite the market sell-off last week and earlier this week due to Omicron, Apple still found buyers. The stock has both defensive and offensive qualities. "Defensive" in terms of the huge cash pile it sits on and "offensive" in its entire business. The stock added another 2% on Wednesday, closing at $175.08. Apple is now up over 7% in just over a week, impressive when you consider the market background. Apple (AAPL) chart, 15-minute Apple (AAPL) stock news Apple was granted a motion to delay App Store changes that had been in the offing after the Epic Games ruling. Apple is appealing the so-called "Fortnite" issue as Epic Games is the creator of Fortnite. The ruling meant Apple would have to change some rules in order to allow links to outside payment systems. Because Apple is appealing the "Fortnite" ruling, it does not now have to make any App Store changes until that appeal decision. This likely means a multi-year-long reprieve for the App Store as the appeal will take time. A definite positive in our view. "Apple has demonstrated, at minimum, that its appeal raises serious questions on the merits of the district court’s determination," the 9th Circuit Court wrote on Wednesday-Reuters. Separately, Apple has lost more engineers from its car project to startup companies in the space, according to a report from Bloomberg. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast No resistance is in sight, obviously, when AAPL at record highs. The pivot level for short-term support is $167. Here we have some volume from last week, and also it is a breakout level for the move this week. The 9-day moving average will also likely track to this level today. Below the medium-term pivot is at $157, so Apple remains bullish above there. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain bullish, and volume has been strong behind this recent rally, indicating its health. AAPL 1-day chart
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price and Forecast: Will Tesla fall to $900?

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price and Forecast: Will Tesla fall to $900?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 06.12.2021 19:29
Tesla (TSLA) stock continues to slide as Friday sees 6% loss. Tesla (TSLA) now nearing key $1,000 support and pivot. Tesla (TSLA) is likely to move quickly to $910 if the stock breaches $1,000. Tesla stock continues to remain under increased selling pressure as markets take a risk-off approach in the current environment. The emergence of the omicron covid variant appears to have put the brakes on the latest rally but the move had become overdone anyway and some correction was necessary. While 2021 has been the year to buy dips, is this one different? We think not and reckon now is the time to wade back in but we take a differing approach here with Tesla (TSLA). The stock has had a standout 2021 and is likely to suffer from now into year-end. The temptation of profit taking is just too strong here. Technically $1,000 is key. Holding will put in place a bullish double bottom and make us change our call but we, for now, remain bearish and see $1,000 breaking, leading to a sharp acceleration to $910. Our daily chart for Tesla (TSLA) above shows just how much pain the stock has taken this past couple of weeks. Tesla was nearing gains of 80% for 2021 in early November but now is back to a gain of 45% for the year so far. Still a strong outperformance against the benchmarks. Tesla (TSLA) stock news The most anticipated of product launches, that of the cybertruck, has been delayed to the end of 2022 according to a Twitter post from CEO Elon Musk. He gave more details about the proposed cybertruck saying it will have four motors, one for each wheel, and will be able to crab sideways. Elon Musk will give more details on Tesla's next earnings call. China sees a recall for some Tesla cars with a report in Electrek stating "According to a statement from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), Tesla Shanghai filed a recall plan for 21,599 Model Y EVs manufactured in the country. The automaker cited issues pertaining to the strength of front and rear steering knuckles, stating they may not meet the automaker’s design requirements". Also of note is Elon Musk selling another $1 billion worth of stock, while Cathie Wood of ARK also is still trimming her funds holding in the name. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast $1,000 is huge, break and it is likely straight to $910. Hold and we would expect more all-time highs before year-end. It is that simple in our view. This one is big. $910 closes the gap from the whole Hertz parabolic move and markets love to fill gaps. Holding on the other hand confirms a double bottom which is a powerful bullish reversal signal. We would need some confirmation with either a stochastic or MACD crossover or a bullish divergence from the RSI. So far we have none of these, making a break lower more likely in our view.
TSLA Stock Price and Forecast: Why Tesla will break $1,200 on Wednesday

TSLA Stock Price and Forecast: Why Tesla will break $1,200 on Wednesday

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.12.2021 16:20
Tesla emerges unscathed from another equity sell-off on Tuesday. TSLA is likely to break higher on Wednesday as buyers return. Tesla CEO Elon Musk takes a bite out of Apple. Tesla (TSLA) stock can do no wrong in 2021, and it avoided another market meltdown on Tuesday. While panic ensued following Powell's remarks about the taper and inflation, TSLA held firmly in the green. Equity indices finished nearly 2% lower on Tuesday, but Tesla shares closed at $1,144.76 for a gain of 0.7%. This was another strong outperformance for a stock that is up 62% year to date. Contrast that with the Nasdaq, up 25 % for 2021, and the S&P 500, up a similar amount. 2021 has been the year of the electric vehicle, and Tesla paved the way for others to follow, notably Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Our chart above shows the strong correlation between Tesla and Lucid with both stocks putting in a stellar second half for 2021. Tesla (TSLA) stock news Elon Musk is nothing if not entertaining, and on a slow news day for Tesla he livened things up by taking a pop on Twitter toward Apple. Don’t waste your money on that silly Apple Cloth, buy our whistle instead! — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 1, 2021 The Apple cloth he is referring to is a polishing cloth available from Apple for $19. Tesla recently launched a Cyberwhistle for what reason? Who knows, but it is currently sold out. At $50 for a whistle, it is not exactly cheap. It seems people just love a Tesla product. Apple was no slouch either on Tuesday as the stock set all-time highs. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast The triangle formation still holds and a breakout is awaited. A triangle pattern is usually a continuation pattern, and Wednesday could provide the catalyst to break higher. The stock has consolidated well despite some strong headwinds: notably, Elon Musk selling a Cybertruck load of stock, and Tesla not performing well in a recent reliability test. It did however score highly on customer satisfaction, and investor satisfaction is also high given the strong performance. We expect more all-time highs this week even with the surrounding Omicron volatility. Our view will change if Tesla cracked below key support at $1,063. TSLA 1-day chart
Eyes on US consumer data and CPI inflation

Eyes on US consumer data and CPI inflation

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 10.12.2021 12:17
While stock markets started the day trading lower, with several indices down between 1-2%, many traders will be awaiting today’s key data releases from the US which include preliminary university of michigan consumer confidence as well as CPI inflation. Both these reports could have a noticeable impact on stocks, particularly in the US, as fears of rising inflation have pushed the FED to announce it’s tapering recently and could lead to further action taken by the US central bank while consumer sentiment has been on a steady decline for several months. A better than expected outcome from today’s data could reassure markets that despite growing fears related to the new variant the economy continues to recover which in turn could encourage the FED to change its approach in the near term. On the other hand, worse than expected reports could further incentivize the central bank to take action, something which may be closely followed by its peers around the world. UK GDP report leaves investors concerned Today’s GDP report showed an estimated growth of 0.1% in October 2021 and a return to 0.5% below its pre-pandemic levels. Services seem to be outperforming with an increase of 0.4% and a return to pre-covid levels while production output decreased by 0.6% in October 2021 and construction contracted output dropped by 1.8%, the largest fall since April 2020, partly due to rising costs and supply concerns. Overall today’s report could be considered positive by some, while on the other hand it may raise some concerns regarding the state of the economic recovery as we await the upcoming Bank of England decision.
All’s Well That Ends Well, But Gold Is Far From Finished

All’s Well That Ends Well, But Gold Is Far From Finished

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 10.12.2021 13:51
  Fundamentals are as strong as ever, but gold has to go some way down before it can resume its uptrend. Think of Moria from The Lord of the Rings. While inflation has soared, the S&P 500 has soared, WTI has soared, and copper has soared, 2021 has been extremely unkind to the precious metals. Gold has declined by 6.25%, silver by 16.66% and the GDX ETF by 14.83% YTD – not to mention the GDXJ ETF (our short position), which is down by 24.91% (all as of the Dec. 9 close). Moreover, investors often assume that material underperformance provides them with buying opportunities. I mean, why not position for a reversion to the mean? However, the harsh truth is that bearish technicals predicted these drawdowns well in advance. And while 2021 has been rough, the charts signal more downside in 2022. To explain, while gold prices, silver prices, and mining stocks rallied hard in October, their price action was more of a trick than a treat. And with the trio becoming part of the bears’ Thanksgiving dinner in November, only Santa Clause can save them now. However, while the S&P 500 had uplifted sentiment, the GDX ETF closed the Dec. 9 session one cent below its Dec. 3 close and the senior miners gave back all of their early-week stock-market-induced gains. As a result, investors aren’t showing much faith in the GDX ETF’s medium-term prospects. Please see below: As further evidence, the GDX ETF’s 4-hour chart is also sending ominous signals. For example, after running into its declining resistance line (the red dashed line on the right side of the chart below), the senior miners’ momentum fizzled, and a sharp decline followed. For more context, I wrote the following on Dec. 7 and updated the analysis on Dec. 9: After verifying the breakdown below its rising support line, the GDX moved lower, just as I expected it to. Now it’s after a breakdown below its previous (November) lows, and it seems to be verifying that breakdown just as it verified the breakdown below the rising support line in late November. The black dashed line in the above chart shows the resistance provided by the previous lows. It wasn’t invalidated. At the same time, the GDX is well below its declining red resistance line, and even if it moves close to this line but then declines, it will not be viewed as something bullish. What happened yesterday (Wednesday) and on Tuesday is exactly what I put in bold. Gold miners moved to their declining red resistance lines and then they moved back down. As far as the November lows are concerned, while it might not be 100% clear based on the above chart, it is the case that the lowest daily close in November was $31.53, and yesterday, the GDX ETF closed the day at $31.49. As the daily closes are more important than the mid-session candlestick closes, I don’t view the breakdown below the November lows as invalidated. Showcasing similar weakness, the GDXJ ETF also reversed sharply after slightly breaking above its declining resistance line (the black dashed line on the right side of the chart below). The invalidation of the breakout served as a strong sell sign, and it’s no wonder that junior miners declined by almost 3% yesterday. Moreover, investors rejected the junior miners’ attempt to rally back above their November lows. As a result, whether big or small, the gold miners have struggled mightily. Please see below: To that point, with more negativity likely to commence in the coming weeks and months, I wrote on Dec. 2 that the selling pressure may persist until the GDXJ ETF reaches its September lows: One of the previous situations that’s similar to the current one is what we saw right before the mid-year top. I marked mid-year declines (from the start to the first more visible correction) in both charts: GDX and GDXJ with orange rectangles. If the history repeats itself, both proxies for mining stocks could move back to their previous 2021 lows before correcting. Please see below: Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the ratio has fallen precipitously in 2021. Interestingly, the ratio is still moving lower, its RSI was previously overbought, and similar periods of excessive optimism have preceded major drawdowns (marked with the black vertical dashed lines below). For example, the ratio showcased a similar overbought reading in early 2020 – right before the S&P 500 plunged. On top of that, the ratio is still near its mid-to-late 2020 lows and its mid-2021 lows. As a result, the GDXJ ETF will likely underperform the GDX ETF over the next few months. It’s likely to underperform silver in the near term as well. Furthermore, a drop below 1 in the ratio isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. In fact, it’s actually quite likely – that’s what happened in 2020 as well, and that’s why I’m shorting the GDXJ ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, it’s my belief that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners remains the most prudent strategy, in my opinion. In conclusion, while the seasons have changed, gold, silver, and mining stocks’ downtrends have remained the same. With a cold winter likely to culminate with new lows, the precious metals should embark on a tumultuous journey over the medium term. However, as Shakespeare told us: all's well that ends well. And with gold, silver and mining stocks poised to soar in the years to come, the bulls should have the last laugh over the long term. In the meantime, patience is prudent, as sharp drawdowns will likely materialize before the precious metals resume their secular uptrends. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Another 4 Years of Gold’s Tricky Romance With Jay

Another 4 Years of Gold’s Tricky Romance With Jay

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.12.2021 16:45
  “Do you love me?”, asked gold. “Of course, my dear”, replied Jay, but his thoughts were with others: asset purchases tapering and interest rate hikes. “It’s complicated” – this is how many people answer questions about their romantic lives. The relationship between gold and Jerome Powell is also not a clear one. As you know, in November, President Biden announced that he would reappoint Powell for the second term as the Fed Chair. It means that gold will have to live with Jerome under the same roof for another four years. To say that gold didn’t like it is to say nothing. The yellow metal snapped and left the cozy living room of $1,850, slamming the door loudly. In less literary expressions, its price plunged from above $1,860 on November 19 to $1,782 on November 24, 2021, as the chart below shows. The impulsive gold’s reaction to Powell’s renomination resulted from its failed dream about a love affair with Lael Brainard. She was considered a leading contender to replace Powell. The contender that would be more dovish and, thus, more supportive of gold prices. However, is a hawkish dove a hawk? Is Powell really a hawk? Even if more hawkish than Brainard, he still orchestrated an unprecedentedly accommodative monetary policy in response to the pandemic-related economic crisis. It was none other than Powell who started to cut interest rates in 2019, a year before the epidemic outbreak. It was he who implemented an inflation-averaging regime that allowed inflation to run above the target. Right now, it’s also Powell who claims that the current high inflation is transitory, although it’s clear for almost everyone else that it’s more persistent. I wouldn’t call Powell a hawk then. He is rather a dove in a hawk’s clothing. So, gold doesn’t have to suffer under Powell’s second term as the Fed Chair. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows gold’s performance in the period of 2017-2021. As you can see, the yellow metal gained about 34% during Powell’s first term as the chair of the Federal Reserve that started in February 2018 (or 40% since Trump’s November 2017 nomination of the Fed). Not bad! Actually, gold performed much better back then than under Yellen’s term as the Fed Chair. During her tenure, which took place in 2014-2018, the yellow metal was traded sideways, remaining generally in a corridor between $1,100-$1,300. I’m not saying that Yellen despised gold, while Powell loves it. My point is that gold’s performance during the tenures of Fed Chairs varies along with changes in the macroeconomic environment in which they act and the monetary stance they adopt. Gold suffered strongly until December 2015, when Yellen finally started hiking the federal funds rate. It then rebounded, only to struggle again in 2018 amid an aggressive tightening cycle. However, at the end of that year it started to rally due to a dovish shift within the Fed, and, of course, in a lagged response to unprecedented fiscal and monetary actions later in 2020. I have bad and good news here. The former is that the macroeconomic environment during Powell’s second term could be more inflationary, demanding more hawkish actions. The Fed has already started tapering of its quantitative easing, and bets are accumulating that it could start hiking interest rates somewhere around mid-2022. What’s more, the continuation of Powell’s leadership ensures more stability and provides markets with more certainty about what to expect from the Fed in the coming years. This is bad news for safe-haven assets such as gold. Last but not least, the composition of the FOMC is going to shift toward the hawkish side. This is because some strong doves, such as Daly and Evans, are out, while some notable hawks, such as George, Mester (and also Bullard), are among the voting members in 2022. Gold may, therefore, find itself under downward pressure next year, especially in its first half. On the other hand, the current FOMC expresses clearly dovish bias. With mammoth public debt and elevated asset prices, aggressive tightening would simply be very risky from a financial and political point of view. So, the Fed is likely to generally remain behind the curve. By the way, Biden not only reappointed Powell for the second term as Fed Chair, but he also appointed Brainard as Vice-Chair. We also can’t exclude that Biden agreed to Powell’s second term only if he conducts “appropriate” monetary policy. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren once called Powell “a dangerous man.” Well, in a way, it’s true, as powerful people can be dangerous. However, history shows that Powell doesn’t have to be a threat to gold. After all, he is not a hawk in the mold of Paul Volcker, but merely a hawkish dove, or a dove that will have to normalize the crisis monetary policy and curb inflation. In the upcoming months, gold may struggle amid prospects of more interest rates hikes and likely strengthened hawkish rhetoric from the Fed. However, precious metals investors often sell the rumor and buy the fact. So, when the US central bank finally delivers them, better times may come for the yellow metal, and gold and Jay could live happily ever after. The End. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
TSLA Stock Price and Forecast: Why is Tesla is going to break below $1,000?

TSLA Stock Price and Forecast: Why is Tesla is going to break below $1,000?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.12.2021 16:09
Tesla stock underperforms strongly on Thursday as continued profit-taking strikes blow. Equity markets remain nervous as VIX inches up again on Thursday and indices lose ground. TSLA also feels pressure from more sales by CEO Elon Musk. Tesla (TSLA) shares lost a lot of ground on Thursday as investors cashed in recent gains ahead of the year end. TSLA has to be included in practically all indices, passive and active funds, and the temptation to book some strong profits ahead of the new year is just too tempting. Added to this is the strong retail investor base who will also be much more inclined to sell out before the holiday season, and the stock has been coming under heavy selling pressure. Call options have been a strong feature of the rise in Tesla this year, especially the last six months. Call option volumes have been steadily decreasing. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, 15-minute As we can see from the chart above, December has not been kind to Tesla stock so far, and we see this continuing. Tesla (TSLA) stock news Added to profit-taking and Elon Musk selling stock was news yesterday that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is scrutinizing a feature in some Tesla versions that allow users to play video games in the car. Obviously, this would be a distraction to the driver. We are assuming it is a passenger feature but nonetheless still distracting. Elon Musk sold another $963 million worth of Tesla this week, and Cathie Wood of ARK is still selling small amounts. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast Somehow $1,000 is still holding in there as support, but surely today is the day when that will finally break. Then it is a pretty clear path in terms of support straight to $910. $1,000 is psychological, but it has been tested quite a few times and the more a level is tested the weaker it becomes. Tesla is putting in a series of lower highs and knocking on the door of $1,000 each time. So the bounce from $1,000 can be said to be weaker each time. We also have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirming the price action. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, daily
New Profitable Call on Natural Gas: “The Yoyo-Trade” Is Back

New Profitable Call on Natural Gas: “The Yoyo-Trade” Is Back

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 10.12.2021 15:42
  What will next week bring us? Hopefully, another profitable trade! The entry has been triggered, and we are on track to reaching our first target. The fundamental question is: are we witnessing a resumption of bullish factors on natural gas? The price of gas hit its highest level since February 2014 in early October. Tight supplies and concerns about a rougher than expected winter in the northern hemisphere were the main propellants for natural gas. However, quite suddenly, a dip took place over the past week. Since exiting the key $ 5.00 per Million British thermal units (MBtu) support zone a week ago, it has fallen by more than 25% – more than 40% drop from its highest level in October. Meanwhile, at the pre-open last Monday, I told our subscribers to get ready to go long around the $3.604-3.716 support zone (yellow band), with a stop placed just below the $3.424 level (red dotted line) and targets at $4.009 and $4.355 (green dotted lines). As a result, gas prices contracted in stride while trading just into the provided entry area before the bull crowd woke up to push them back up in the following days. In fact, with gas prices picking up momentum from Wednesday, the proposed trade entry on the Henry Hub futures is turning profitable (and getting closer to target #1). Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart, logarithmic scale) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports, as this dip on natural gas offered a great opportunity for the bulls to enter long whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium section. By the way, for those of you who are interested in trading biofuels, please note that I recently wrote an article on this topic to diversify your portfolio. Alternatively, you can have a closer look at my selection of stocks and MLPs through our public dynamic stock watchlist. Stay tuned – and happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Silver is moving up

Silver is moving up

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.12.2021 10:45
So, what are the facts: Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In 2020, silver broke a multiyear sideways range and moved strongly up. It has now consolidated for over a year in a sideways range again. This is a bullish setup! As much as emotions might be weary, from a probability perspective, a general rule is that the longer a congestion is from a time perspective, the more significant will be the subsequent breakout from that range. Statistical probabilities are also clearly pointing to the upside rather than returning into the prior range. Not to forget, buying near the lows of such a range box guarantees the lowest entry risk and highest risk/reward-ratio play to be taken for the long side, even if emotions might tell you otherwise. 2021 silver trades performance: 2021 silver trades performance. Another fact is that one does not need to know when and if a breakout is happening to extract money from the markets consistently. The above chart is this year’s silver trades that we posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The systematic approach focuses on low-risk entry points with a risk reduction method through our quad exit strategy. Sideways markets provide an income-producing aspect of one’s trading, and a possible breakout of a range would give a significant bonus. An approach like this keeps emotions in check since one’s labor gets rewarded and allows for significantly higher rewards once ranges do break. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, silver is moving up: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In short, while waiting is strenuous, and one might feel doubtful, from a probability perspective, silver is an even likelier success story now than it has been six months or a year ago. What should also not be underestimated is the fundamental situation of this wealth preservation play. The extensions of governments playing the inflation game to such length are like adding fuel to the silver play. Widespread problems that are the pillars to this insurance play have, if anything, increased. Consequently, supporting a good likelihood that silver prices go up. When? Well, that is hard to say since no one knows the future, but maybe this question gets proportionally in weight too much attention since insurance isn’t just bought for the next storm to come but in principle acquired to make one feel good and to protect one’s wealth long term. The quarterly chart above shows how silvers inherent volatility can sustain, in times of market turmoil, extended phases of extreme standard deviation levels. Price moves far away from the mean (red line). We are trading near the mean as of now, and the very right green line is a projection of a possible price move up.   S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, Quod erat demonstrandum: S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. Still, some doubt left? Have a look at the above S&P500 chart, representing the broad market. Does that look like a healthy chart? Baby boomers and general stock-market participants might be in for a rude awakening once they realize how little their fiat currency is still worth when they cash in those stock portfolio investments. Just compare your total living cost from 2020 with 2021. All positions from food to health insurance, from car gas to electricity bills. Calculate the percentage difference from those two numbers and add this percentage to the average acquisition cost of your physical silver, and you have the real value of your silver already now. How does homelessness double to a half million people per day sleeping roofless factor in? Does this chart represent great times when we face supply chain disruptions? Or is it all smoke and mirrors, and once the music stops, there will be countless chairs missing for everyone to sit down? Silver is moving up: The essential principle in play is that markets are counterintuitive. Meaning your feelings might have switched from enthusiasm to uncertainty, even frustration, but probability facts are in direct opposition to one’s feelings. This principle is the underlying reason why moves out of extended congestion zones can result in substantial moves. Once emotionally weak hands are washed out, these breakouts come from an emotional perspective surprising. Bears step aside and bulls chase prices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC might dive below $40,000

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC might dive below $40,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.12.2021 16:09
Bitcoin price has penetrated below the $53,000 support level and is currently exploring the $48,000 to $50,000 foothold. BTC needs to rise above $57,845 to flip bullish, failing could leave it open to retest $40,000. On-chain metrics are indicating a wide array of emotions, painting the indecisiveness of the crypto markets. Bitcoin price is currently hovering around a crucial barrier as bulls and bears hash it out. This fight for control shows indecision among the participants and is often formed before a volatile move. Short-term investors need to be cautious about the next move, therefore, so as not to be caught off guard. Bitcoin price at crossroads Bitcoin price has slipped below the $50,000 psychological level five times over the last six days. Although the first four times BTC recovered back above it, the December 9 crash produced a daily close below it. Price action for the next few days is crucial as it will determine or establish a directions bias. In some cases, Bitcoin price could consolidate before it violently explodes. While it is difficult to say in which direction BTC might head, let’s assume, it is a bullish move. In that case, Bitcoin price needs to produce a daily close above $57,845 to indicate that the bulls are back in control. Doing this will establish a higher high and eventually, a higher low, which will confirm the start of an uptrend. Even after flipping the $57,845 level, BTC needs to wade through a thick consolidation area up to $61,000. Beyond this level, the big crypto will then have to tackle the $65,509 hurdle and eventually the all-time high at $69,000. To trigger this scenario, BTC needs to consolidate or reverse the downtrend and produce a higher high above $57,845. BTC/USD 1-day chart Supporting this scenario is the daily active addresses chart, which shows that DAA is above the 30-day average of 944,000 and is currently at 1.11 million. This data reveals that despite the recent flash crashes, investors are still interacting with the bitcoin blockchain, suggesting that they are optimistic about BTC’s performance. BTC DAA chart Further implying that an uptrend is likely is the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, which has reset and is currently at 1%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. There is a chance this index might dip into the negative territory, but there is also the possibility that long-term holders might start accumulating, kick-starting the uptrend. BTC 365-day MVRV chart Lastly, the stable coin supply reserve on all exchanges has hit a new all-time high of $21.3 billion as of December 9. This uptick seems to have picked up pace around November 25, indicating that investors could be preparing to buy the dip if we ever get one or using the stablecoins as collateral for their existing positions. BTC stablecoin supply reserve chart BTC bears are not far behind While the bullish scenario does not seem out of the realm of possibility, the breakdown of the $50,000 psychological level and $48,326 support level suggests that bears are in control. If buyers fail to rescue the pioneer crypto at these levels, there is a high chance the downtrend could deepen, knocking BTC down to $40,596, the next support floor. If this were to happen, the market makers will likely collect the liquidity resting below this area, allowing BTC to revisit the $30,000 levels again. In an extremely dire case, Bitcoin price could head below the July 20 swing low at $29,763 to collect the sell-stop liquidity. Supporting the bearish side of arguments is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model, which shows that the next stable support level extends from $45,615 to $23,046. Here roughly 5 million addresses purchased 3.35 million BTC at an average price of $36,730. Even if BTC might head to $30,000 or lower, there is a high chance it might revisit $36,000. BTC GIOM Moreover, the large transaction volume worth $100,000 or more has also dried up from 12 million on November 16 to 5.4 million on December 6. This 55% reduction indicates large institutions or whales are uninterested in BTC at the current levels. BTC large transactions volume chart Investors need to be cautious, therefore, and observe how Bitcoin price reacts around the $50,000 psychological level. A consolidation followed by a pump to $57,845 will suggest that the bulls are trying to make a comeback. In which case, market participants need to wait for confirmation. If Bitcoin price continues to sell-off, then a revisit of $40,000 or lower seems plausible.
Gold Stays Sedentary Whilst Silver (a Steal!) Skids Senselessly

Gold Stays Sedentary Whilst Silver (a Steal!) Skids Senselessly

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 13.12.2021 09:18
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 630th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 11 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com Without looking... Think quick! What is the price of Gold right now? (HINT: If you read last week's missive, you already know the answer). "Uhh gee, mmb... in the 1780s?" Spot-on there, Squire, for the simplest reason that the price of Gold is always in the 1780s. Don't believe it? Feel free to verify the following, (you cannot make this stuff up): 'Twas in the 1780s ten years ago; 'twas in the 1780s ten months ago; 'twas in the 1780s ten weeks ago; 'twas in the 1780s ten days ago; and 'tis today in the 1780s -- 1783 to be precise -- as portrayed in the above Gold Scoreboard. That is just 44% of Gold's Dollar-debased value of 4015, even as honestly-adjusted for the increase in the supply of Gold itself. No kiddin'. Indeed should Gold have just died, an epitaph of solely "1780" is perfectly apt. "Charles, is this Gold's gravestone?" ... "That, my dear Dysphasia, is a rhetorical question." For just as the price of Gold was relatively "fixed" post-Issac Newton in the $18-to-$20 range, then again relatively "fixed" post-Bretton Woods in the $34-to-$35 range -- until 1971 upon Richard Nixon nixing such Gold Standard -- today we might say Gold is relatively "fixed" in the 1780s by "The M Word" crowd. Indeed, the "manipulation" motif is gaining more and more mainstream mention of late, the market depth of bids and offers rotating marvelously around 1780 as a centerpiece price. And it never being wrong, the market is what 'tis today: 1780. But broad buying sway can this allay: for Gold remains extraordinarily under-owned, an understatement at that. 'Course, the day to sell your Gold is the day everybody wants it, even at a five-figure price. But for now, why own a dense, ductile lump of rather incongruous rock when with a mere tap of the mouse one benefits many times over from an increasing array of shiny objects permeating the markets, be they earningless stocks or cryptocrap or even non-fungible tokens? Certainly they make one and all cocksure and feeling fine! (Until suddenly the objects vanish, but we're not supposed to say that). And how about Sister Silver of late? Hardly does she feel very great. Whilst Gold has been ad nausea sedentary in forever wallowing 'round the 1780s, and more accurately being -3.0% month-over-month, Silver senselessly has skidded -10.9%! Quite obviously, Silver has not been adorned in her precious metals pinstripes. So it must instead be that she is sporting her industrial metal jacket, right? For Cousin Copper clearly must be going over the cliff. But no, 'tisn't. Rather for the same stint, Copper is off but a mere -0.5%. What To Figure, eh? Last week we wrote of market dislocation: Silver has become so dislocated as to have been left naked! Here are the percentage tracks of our BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate from one month ago-to-date (21 trading days): Further, guess what just crossed above 80x for its first occurrence since 29 September? Exactly right: the Gold/Silver ratio, which now is 80.3x. Its millennium-to-date average is 66.4x. Thus were Silver today (22.215) priced at the average, she'd in fact be +24.6% higher at 27.690. (Think means regression). Either way, by our math, Silver right now is a steal (!!!) So as Silver sinks even as Copper remains buoyant -- which makes no sense -- Gold sedentarily sits. In settling out the week yesterday at the aforementioned 1783, price on a points basis traced its narrowest week (since that ending on Valentine's Day 2020) in the last 22 months, and the narrowest week on a percentage basis since that ending nearly two years ago on 22 December 2019. So narrow was last week's trading range that it barely shows as the rightmost nub on the graphic of Gold's weekly bars from one year ago-to-date: Economically, the past week of incoming metrics were inflation-persistent. There was an upward revision to Q3's Unit Labor Costs along with a downward revision for the quarter's Productivity: that's Classic Stagflation, right there! Too, November's CPI remained stubbornly high with an +0.8% reading, (which for those of you scoring at home is an annualized pace of +9.6% ... are ya gettin' that with all the dough you've got sitting in the bank? Oh right, you put it all in the stock market). October's Trade Deficit backed off from that for September, whilst Consumer Credit eroded and Wholesale Inventories somewhat bloated. December's University of Michigan Sentiment Survey regained the 70 level, but remains below the COVID-era average of 77. Put it all together and the Economic Barometer lost of bit of tether: With further respect to rising everything ('cept the metals), Dow Jones Newswires during the week ran with "This Inflation Defies the Old Models. Neither supply or demand by itself is increasing prices; it’s an unusual combination of both." True enough: we've tons of money chasing not enough stuff, the cost of which to produce and supply is ever-increasing. This is what happens when the system is flooded with money. Everybody's loaded, so why the heck seek work? Especially given your shiny object investments see you retiring at 35. (Or as a French friend oft texts to us: "So gréat!") Meanwhile come 21 December (that's Tuesday a week), some 40% of StateSide obligations shan't be payable (per analysis from the Bipartisan Policy Center) given the debt ceiling then being reached. "Hey Shinzō, that you? Joe here. Hey listen: we may have to skip that next interest payment. My Janet who? Hello Shinzō? Hey! Are you still there, buddy?" Or something like that. Which leads us to three critical, succinct questions: â–  "Got Gold?" â–  "Got Silver?" â–  "Has the S&P crashed yet?" Just askin'. In fact speaking of the latter, our "live" S&P 500 price/earnings ratio is now 48.6x, (another of our honest calculations that the FinWorld elects not to perform). In fact, the "in" thing these days is to value a company -- should they not have earnings -- by revenues. (This is referred to as "Dumbing-down beyond stoopid"). For example, we read this past week that such valuation method is apparently touted for a shiny object called "Snowflake". Last year this object's top line was +$592M and its bottom line -$539M, a truly symmetrical snowflake swing of -$1.1B. Moreover, we read (courtesy of NASDAQ) that negative swings are to be again seen in '22, '23 and '24. And snowflakes do melt. (See 2000-2002). Just sayin'. 'Course to be fair, Gold's price as a function of valuation continues to melt. The U.S. money supply continues to rise, yet Gold's price remains hardly wise, (except in the guise to load up on this prize). To wit, our two-panel graphic featuring on the left Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date and on the right price's 10-Market Profile. The good news per the "Baby Blues" having just ceased their fall right at the -80% axis is that price's recent freeze in the 1780s may be the consolidative haunch from which to launch. And obviously, those incessant 1780s clearly dominate the Profile: Silver's like graphic shows both price and the "Baby Blues" (below left) clearly more skittish than Gold, whilst her Profile (below right) sees her singin' the blues. (But grab some Silver whilst you've nuthin' to lose!) Grab a glimpse too at The Gold Stack: The Gold StackGold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 4015Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 2089 (07 August 2020)Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 2075 (06 August 2020)2021's High: 1963 (06 January)The Gateway to 2000: 1900+The 300-Day Moving Average: 1815 and fallingThe Final Frontier: 1800-1900The Northern Front: 1800-1750Trading Resistance: 1785 / 179510-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1783Gold Currently: 1783, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 22 points)Trading Support: 1777 / 177310-Session directional range: down to 1762 (from 1811) = -49 points or -2.7%On Maneuvers: 1750-1579The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 17282021's Low: 1673 (08 March) The Floor: 1579-1466Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466The Support Shelf: 1454-1434Base Camp: 1377The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr '18 preceded by 1362 in Sep '17Neverland: The Whiny 1290sThe Box: 1280-1240 And then there's next week. 15 metrics are scheduled for the Econ Baro. And the mid-week cherry? A policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. "Oh no, not again!" Kinda like those radio hits: good or bad, they just keep on comin'! So c'mon and get yourself some Gold, and don't forget the Silver too! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
Omicron, USDJPY, Gold, DXY highlighted in this Luke Suddards' piece

Omicron, USDJPY, Gold, DXY highlighted in this Luke Suddards' piece

Luke Suddards Luke Suddards 10.12.2021 15:15
Pfizer and BioNTech released the results of their recent laboratory study which found that their vaccine’s antibody response is capable of neutralizing omicron (levels similar to 2 doses against previous strains) after three doses. There was a more than 25-fold reduction in the efficacy of the vaccine however, showing the 32 mutations in omicron does certainly have an impact. The vaccine induced T cells are not affected by omicron and should therefore still provide protection from severe symptoms. To finish off a Japanese study showed that omicron was 4.2 times more transmissible than delta in its early stage. We know that omicron was far more transmissible already so this isn’t a major shock, however, the issue with higher transmissibility is the opportunity for further new variants to arise which (hopefully) will not increase in lethality. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is basically flat from where it started the week as traders remain hesitant to push price in a new direction until today’s CPI result is out the way. Omicron news as mentioned above has been on the positive side so risk-off flows derived from that side of things has been non-existent. However, where we could see more safe haven bids for the dollar is from any escalation in the Russia Ukraine tensions, with an invasion very likely seeing risk-off ensconcing markets. This would clearly benefit the dollar on the lhs of the smile (risk-off). Data wise, job numbers filled the rather quiet calendar throughout the week with vacancies reaching new records as well as jobless claims breaching the 200k mark, coming in at 184k. We also had bond auctions coming to the fore, beginning with the front end of the curve, 3-year auctions showed strong demand despite today’s inflation numbers; moving to the back end of the curve the 10-year also showed relatively robust demand. It was the 30-year bond which was very weak with yields spiking higher leading to fears over today’s inflation numbers being the main driver. Inflation numbers were smack bang in line with consensus at 6.8% YoY (highest since 1982) and 4.9% YoY for core. The initial market reaction saw the dollar softer as short term rates fell (clearly the market was positioned for 7%), but that initial dollar weakness is now being retraced as it's still a solid number (Fed won't change path) with prices increases broad based.  Next week the focus will be on the Fed meeting where the risks are definitely tilted towards the hawkish side for the dollar. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The dollar is ever so slightly above its upper trend line and the 21-day EMA has provided good dynamic support. The RSI has bounced off the 55 support level too keeping the uptrend momentum in tact. There is some resistance at 96.5 to monitor and on the downside the 21-day EMA would be important to watch if price slides. EURUSD: The euro continues to tread water as it faces headwinds on multiple fronts. The week began with fairly positive ZEW sentiment reading with current conditions missing (expected with covid restrictions), but the main index reading more positive than expected. Olaf Scholz has now been inducted as Chancellor of Germany with the end of Merkel’s reign officially coming to an end. European gas has been soaring again as tensions between Russia and US led to reports than Biden could implement sanctions on Russia. Europe is highly exposed to the price of natural gas so this could be one to watch for sure. Next week sees a very important ECB meeting with a fresh set of economic projections out (I’ll be watching their inflation forecasts particularly) as well as insights into how they’ll navigate the completion of their PEPP programme and transition. I’ll be providing a preview next week.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURUSD moves sideways with a slight tilt towards the downside capped by the overhead 21-day EMA. 1.135 resistance has formed as the one to watch. The price support at 1.125 should be on your radar too. The RSI has rolled over a touch and pointing lower. The former low around the lower trend line at 1.12 could be very important over the next week. GBPUSD: Sterling has been under pressure as multiple factors line up against it. The week began with centrist Ben Broadbent’s speech which didn’t drop any hints on what the BoE may do at their December meeting. UK GDP data was disappointing with missed expectations on a monthly time frame as well as YoY and 3-month average. Plan B restrictions have now been implemented - guidance to work from home from Monday, and an extension of face masks to most public indoor venues (public transport etc). Mandatory Covid-19 passes will now be needed for entry to places such as nightclubs and venues with large crowds. With Plan B restrictions and softer GDP data, markets are all but certain a BoE hike will not happen at next week’s meeting, opting to rather wait until February for a move. I’ll be providing a preview for this event, but we shouldn’t be getting any curve balls as expectations are widely baked in for no hike, leading to very muted reactions in GBP crosses if any. UK opinion polls have moved against Boris Johnson after the uproar caused by allegations of his rule breaking Christmas party. Labour is now ahead in a variety of polls, which hasn’t occurred for a long time. If the fallout continues the Conservative MPs may decide to trigger a vote of no confidence in him which may inject some political instability. Article 16 could be used as a deflection and distraction tactic to turn the spotlight away from himself. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) GBPUSD looks technically weak as it trades below the lower trend line of its descending channel. The RSI hovers just above oversold. 1.315 on the downside would be key for a move lower while 1.32.5 - 1.33 on the upside just below the 21-day EMA would be key. USDJPY: The yen continues to come under pressure as the US 10-year yield moves higher and risk sentiment leans on the positive side, reducing the need for risk-off hedges. Tensions over Russian invading Ukraine will need to be monitored though as this could see flows directed towards the yen. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) USDJPY continues to be bid around its 38.2% Fibonacci level and mini range support around 113.5. The 50-day SMA and 21-day EMA are bunched up right together on the price candles. The RSI edges above the 46 level of support. Targets wise, on the upside 114-114.5 will remain key while on the downside 112.5 will be important to watch. Gold: Omicron variant positive news flow is taking the allure away from gold for safe haven flows, however, rising tensions between the US and Russia is helping to offset that. Real yields have also been rising higher of late which will pressure gold as well as a stronger dollar. Gold is a tad stronger on the inflation release as traders had most likely positioned for a 7% print and this not being the case has led to some bids flowing through.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Gold remains trapped in a tight range with today's inflation data a potential catalyst for a more directional move. Price is now just above the $1775 support level. The RSI has turned back upwards, but remains in no-man's land. The important level on the upside will be $1800 just above all the key moving averages. Oil: Oil certainly saw some new hot money coming back in to drive the recent recovery up from the $68 support area. Beginning the week we saw Saudi Arabia decided to hike their selling price to Asia and the US, indicating that they believe demand will remain robust despite omicron restriction fears. So far omicron news has been positive enough not to lead to expectations of serious demand destruction. Plan B work from home guidance has probably led to some slight weakness in crude, but we’ll need to watch what airlines decided to do in the next few weeks for jet fuel demand. Official US inventory data showed a modest reduction in inventory levels, but nothing to get excited about. Iranian talks are continuing ahead with nothing of anything major to report back on (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Oil now between its 200-day SMA and the 21-day EMA, is looking for its next direction. Support comes in around $73.50 with the 200-dauy SMA just below there. On the upside $76 provides resistance aided by the 21-day EMA. The RSI, has turned upwards and will need to continue in that direction for bulls to be satisfied.
XAUUSD (Gold) And XAGUSD (Silver) - A Technical Look

Daily Gold News: Monday, Dec. 13 – Gold Extends Consolidation

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 13.12.2021 13:44
  The gold futures contract gained 0.46% on Friday, as it retraced its Thursday’s loss of 0.5%. The market continues to fluctuate following the late November decline and a breakdown below the $1,800 level. It sold off in a reaction to strengthening U.S. dollar and volatile stock prices, among other factors. This morning gold is trading slightly higher, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data): Gold is 0.3% higher this morning, as it gets closer to the $1,800 level again. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.1% higher, platinum is 0.3% lower and palladium is 0.8% lower. So precious metals’ prices are mixed this morning. Friday’s Consumer Price Index release has been slightly higher than expected at +0.8% m/m. Today we won’t get any new important economic data announcements. The markets will be waiting for series of data releases on Tuesday and on Wednesday, including the important Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release. Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days: Monday, December 13 12:00 p.m. U.K. - Bank Stress Test Results 12:30 p.m. U.K. - BOE Governor Bailey Speech All Day - G7 Meetings Tuesday, December 14 6:00 a.m. U.S. - NFIB Small Business Index 8:30 a.m. U.S. - PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.Sign up for our free gold, stock, and oil newsletter today! * * * * * Disclaimer All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
On a Knife-Edge

On a Knife-Edge

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.12.2021 15:04
S&P 500 recaptured 4,700s on little change in market breadth and ever so slowly coming back to life HYG. Credit markets made a risk-on move, but HYG isn‘t leading the charge on a medium-term basis in the least – it‘s improving, but the stiff headwinds in bonds are being felt. Given the CPI discussed at length on Friday, it‘s still a relative success. Make no mistake though, time is running short in this topping process, and trouble is going to strike earliest after the winter Olympics. Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 advance continues, and I‘m looking for ATHs to give in. It will take a while, but the balancing on a tightrope act continues. Credit Markets HYG strength didn‘t convince, but it didn‘t disappoint either – the constellation remains conducive to further stock market gains. So far and still conducive. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are stronger than miners, and the lackluster, sideways performance is likely to continue for now – fresh Fed policy mistake is awaited, and it‘s actually bullish that gold and silver aren‘t facing more trouble when the consensus expectation is faster taper. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing is still struggligh at $72, and remains favored to go higher with passage of time as excess production capacity keeps shrinking while demand isn‘t being hit (no, the world isn‘t going the lockdowns route this time). Copper High time copper stopped hesitating, for its sideways trading is sending a signal about future GDP growth. The jury is still out in the red metal‘s long basing pattern – a battle of positive fundamentals against shrinking liquidity and possibly slowing growth. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, and I suspect at least a test of Friday‘s lows is coming. I don‘t see too many signs of exuberance returning right away as Ethereum hasn‘t yet started to outperform. Summary S&P 500 bulls continue climbing a wall of worry even if credit markets don‘t confirm entirely. Risk-on and real assets rally is likely to continue, and the road would be getting bumpier over time. The Fed won‘t overcome market expectations, and the last week of Nov (first week of balance sheet contraction) pace wouldn‘t be consistently beaten without consequences down the road. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Cardano Price Prediction: ADA eyes 40% rise with on-chain metrics backing the claim

Cardano Price Prediction: ADA eyes 40% rise with on-chain metrics backing the claim

FXStreet News FXStreet News 13.12.2021 16:09
Cardano price is undergoing a retracement that will likely set the stage for a 38% run-up to $1.75. ADA needs to flip the $1.60 resistance barrier into support to reach its destination at $1.75. The transaction data and the recent uptick in average transaction size support the bullish thesis for the so-called “Ethereum killer. Cardano price has set up liquidity pools that are likely to be taken advantage of going forward. The most probable direction for ADA seems to be bullish, with on-chain metrics providing a tailwind to the claim. Cardano price to collect buy-stop liquidity Cardano price set up a double top at $1.75 on December 2 and retraced 32% to $1.13. A few days later, ADA created a double bottom at $1.13 and surged 18%. However, the recent upward correction will likely set the stage for the incoming bullishness to be sustained. A bounce off the $1.26 support level that sets up a new swing high above $1.47 will confirm the start of an uptrend. In this scenario, Cardano price will encounter the $1.60 resistance level. Flipping this barrier into a support floor will suggest that the buyers are taking control. This move will open the path for collecting the buy-stop liquidity resting above the $1.75 hurdle. In total, the climb would constitute a 38% gain. ADA/USDT 4-hour chart Supporting the bullish outlook for Cardano price is the recent uptick in the average transaction size from $23,877 to $83,704. This 250% spike in transfer size indicates that investors are interested in the price of ADA at the current levels and are actively pouring money into it. ADA average transaction size Moreover, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model is another contributing factor to Cardano’s bullishness, and it shows that ADA will face little-to-no imminent resistance. Two significant clusters of underwater investors appear at $1.42 and $1.60. Here, roughly 381,000 and 441,000 addresses purchased nearly 4.32 billion and 5.25 billion ADA tokens, respectively. Therefore, an uptick in buying pressure that propels Cardano price into these clusters is likely to be met with selling momentum from holders trying to break even. Hence, ADA bulls need to clear these two levels to reach their destination at $1.75. ADA GIOM While things are looking good for Cardano price, there is a high chance ADA might retrace below $1.19 to collect liquidity. Investors can scoop the so-called “Ethereum killer” for a discount in this situation. However, if Cardano price produces a lower low below $1.12, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, ADA could slip down to retest the 1.02 support floor.
We Might Say Next FED Moves Are Not Obvious As Some Factors Differentiate Circumstances

Will Inflation Look Different in 2022?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 13.12.2021 17:04
One swallow doesn't make a summer, but when it comes to slower inflation pressure, there have been several. Will the narrative change soon? While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had been preaching his “transitory” doctrine for months, the thesis was obliterated once again after the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 6.8% year-over-year (YoY) on Dec. 10. Additionally, while the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) – which will be released on Dec. 14 – is likely provide a roadmap for inflation’s next move, signs of deceleration are already upon us.  For example, supply bottlenecks, port congestion, and rapidly rising commodity prices helped underwrite inflation’s ascent. However, with those factors now stagnant or reversing, inflationary pressures should decelerate in 2022. To explain, Deutsche Bank presented several charts that highlight 2021’s inflationary problems. However, whether it’s suppliers’ delivery times, backlogs of work, port congestion, bottleneck indices, or the cost of shipping and trucking, several inflationary indicators (excluding air cargo rates) have already peaked and rolled over.  Please see below: To that point, global manufacturing PMIs also signal a deceleration in input price pressures. With input prices leading output prices (like the headline CPI), the latter will likely showcase a similar slowdown if the former’s downtrend holds. Please see below: Source: IIF/Robin Brooks To explain, the colored lines above track the z-scores for prices paid within global manufacturing PMI reports. In a nutshell: regions were experiencing input inflation that was ~2 and ~4 standard deviations above their historical averages. However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that all of them have consolidated or come down (the U.S. is in light blue). As a result, it’s another sign that peak input inflation could elicit peak output inflation. As mentioned, though, the commodity PPI is the most important indicator and if the data comes in hot on Dec. 14, all bets are off. However, the monthly weakness should be present since the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) declined by 11.2% in November.   Also noteworthy, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, Ellen Zentner, also sees signs of a deceleration. She wrote: “We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China's inflation data, the Fed's Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.” To explain, the green, gold, and blue lines above track Morgan Stanley’s core inflation estimates for emerging markets, developed markets, and global markets. If the predictions prove prescient, the 2022 inflation narrative could look a lot different than in 2021. However, please remember that inflation doesn’t abate without direct action from the Fed, and with a hawkish Fed known to upend the PMs (at least in the short- or medium run), the fundamental environment has turned against them. For example, when the Fed turns hawkish, commodities retreat, and with U.S. President Joe Biden showcasing heightened anxiety over inflation, more of the same should materialize over the medium term. To explain, Morgan Stanley initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Now, Zentner expects “2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023.” She wrote: “Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC's final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.” Furthermore, upping the hawkish ante, Goldman Sachs initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Then, the team moved to three rate hikes in 2022 (June, September, and December 2022). Now, Goldman Sachs expects the FOMC to hike rates in May, July, and November 2022 – with another four hikes per year in 2023 and 2024.   The Fed’s Time to Shine “The FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March,” wrote Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. “We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.” Speaking of three hikes, the market-implied probability of three FOMC rate hikes in 2022 has risen to 96%. Please see below: For context, I’ve been warning for months that surging inflation would force the Fed’s hand. I wrote on Oct. 26: Originally, the Fed forecasted that it wouldn’t have to taper its asset purchases until well into 2022. However, surging inflation pulled that forecast forward. Now, the Fed forecasts that it won’t have to raise interest rates until well into 2023. However, surging inflation will likely pull that forecast forward as well. More importantly, though, while the PMs have remained upbeat in recent weeks, the forthcoming liquidity drain will likely shift the narrative over the medium term. The bottom line? While inflation shows signs of peaking, there is a vast difference between peak inflation and the Fed’s 2% annual target. As a result, even if a 6.8% YoY headline CPI was the precipice, it’s nothing to celebrate. Thus, the Fed needs to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, and anything less will likely re-accelerate the cost-push inflationary spiral.  To that point, with the precious metals extremely allergic to a hawkish Fed, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions how the GDXJ ETF suffered following the 2013 taper. With 2022 Fed policy looking even more hawkish than in mid-2014, the latter’s downtrend should have plenty of room to run. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Nov. 10, and the scorching inflation print was largely ignored by investors. However, with the Fed poised to provide another dose of reality on Dec. 15, the recent volatility should persist. To that point, it’s important to remember that the S&P 500’s volatility increased materially after the Fed tapered in 2013. With stock market drawdowns bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, there are plenty of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors brewing that favor the theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ over the medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Brief Consolidation

Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Brief Consolidation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.12.2021 09:42
USDCHF looks for breakout The US dollar consolidates ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The pair is grinding for support above 0.9160 after it gave up most gains from the November rally. Overall sentiment remains positive as long as price action stays above the daily support at 0.9100. The current consolidation is a sign of accumulation from the long side. A close above the immediate resistance at 0.9270 would propel the greenback to the previous peak at 0.9360. On the downside, between 0.9160 and 0.9195 lies an important demand zone. US 30 to test previous peak The Dow Jones 30 inches lower as investors look ahead to Fed’s aggressive tapering. By lifting offers around the psychological level of 36000, a major resistance on the daily chart, the bulls may have turned sentiment around. As the index falls back in search of support, the RSI’s oversold situation may catch buyers’ attention. A break above 36350 may resume the uptrend. Otherwise, 35620 is the closest support where buyers could jump in for fear of missing out. Further down, 34800 would be a second line of defense. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 treads water as major central banks are set to update their policies. An initial surge above 15500 has prompted the bears to cover. Then the index found support at the 38.2% (15550) Fibonacci retracement level while an oversold RSI attracted buying interest. And that is a sign of underlying strength in the rebound. A bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration on the upside. A break above 15840 may send the price to the all-time high at 16300. In case of a deeper pullback, 15300 is a critical level to keep the rebound relevant.
Market Quick Take - December 14, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 14, 2021

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 14.12.2021 11:57
Macro 2021-12-14 08:35 6 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment soured yesterday, with some attributing the market nervousness to uncertainty on how hawkish a pivot the Fed is set to make at the FOMC tomorrow, although Fed rate expectations for next year as expressed in the most liquid futures have eased from recent highs. That meeting is the most significant major macro event risk for the 2021 calendar year, although important ECB and BoE meetings are set for Thursday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday was a very disappointing session for US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures looking to push higher early during the session but ended on the lowest close in four trading sessions. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 16,110 level this morning with the 50-day average around the 15,810 level as the key support level to watch on the downside should risk-off continue. EURUSD – the EURUSD supermajor continues to coil in a tight range ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow and ECB meeting on Thursday, both of which are set to bring refreshed forecasts for the economy and policy. The FOMC meeting is likely to carry more weight in terms of the market reaction, especially if the Fed waxes more hawkish than expected (more below) and takes Fed rate expectations for next year to new highs for the cycle. The lines in the sand on the chart include the 1.1186 lows of November, while the recent pivot highs of 1.1355 and 1.1384 bar the upside, with 1.1500 a more structural resistance/pivot zone. AUDUSD – watching the US dollar closely over the next couple of sessions, particularly in the wake of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and what it brings in the way of a crystallization of the Fed’s hawkish shift (more below) and in the market reaction. If the meeting brings a spike in market volatility, traditionally risk-correlated currencies like the Aussie could show high beta to swings in the US dollar in either direction (I.e., if the Fed waxes more hawkish than expected and this triggers risk-off and a stronger USD). AUDUSD recently broke down through the prior 2021 lows near 0.7100 and tested the huge 0.7000 level before staging a sharp bounce. That 0.7000 level could serve as a kind of “bull-bear” line from here. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) has settled into a relatively narrow range with Brent finding resistance at $76, the 21-day moving average while support remains the 200-day moving average at $73.15. OPEC in its monthly oil market report maintained their 4.2 million barrels per day demand growth outlook for 2022 with current omicron-related weakness being offset by a strong recovery during Q1. The Saudi energy minister said the energy transition will cause an oil-price spike later this decade while also warning traders against shorting the market at a time where large speculators have reduced their Brent crude oil long to a 13-month low. On tap today we have IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report. Gold (XAUUSD) remains stuck just below its 200-day moving average at $1794 with focus on what 20 central bank meetings this week will deliver in terms of inflation fighting measures at a time where the omicron variant continues to cloud the economic outlook. With US inflation rising at the fastest pace since the 1980’s, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting remains the top event. The market is currently pricing in three rate hikes next year with the first one due around June. The other semi-investment metals of silver (XAGUSD) and platinum (XPTUSD) both struggling with the latter’s 850-dollar discount to gold, near a one year high, potentially deserving some attention. US Treasuries (TLH, TLT). The US yield curve bulled flatten yesterday with 10-year yields falling by 7bps to test support at 1.41%. To contribute to this move was news of the first omicron death in the UK, and the winding done of short US Treasury positions before the end of the year. Price action will remain volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where Powell is expected to announce an acceleration of the pace of tapering. The focus is going to be also on the Dot plot, where longer term projections might be moved higher, pushing up the long part of the yield curve. However, long-term yields can move higher only that much, as omicron distortions will continue to keep them compressed. It looks likely that 10-year yields will continue to trade rangebound between 1.40% and 1.70% until the end of the year. European sovereign bonds (IS0L, BTP10). The Bund yield curve bull flattened yesterday led by safe-haven buying amid concerns over omicron. Italian BTPS gained the most as the market pushes back on interest rate hikes in 2022. The focus, however, continues to be on the ECB meeting on Thursday. An announcement of the end of the PEPP program in March 2022 is widely anticipated. What’s not clear is whether it will be announced that bond purchases will be compensated by another scheme, such as the APP. It is likely that the ECB will stall as members are torn between inflation and a new wave of Covid infections. If investors feel the support of the central bank is fading, European yields might resume their rise with the periphery and Italian BTPS leading the way. Yet, the move will be contained as yields will remain compressed by covid concerns. UK Gilts (IGLT, IGLS). The BOE might not deliver on a 10bps interest rate hike this week as members are divided concerning Covid restrictions. Michael Saunders, one of the most hawkish MPC members, said that he will need to think about it twice before voting for a rate hike. As expectations for interest rate hikes in the UK are the most aggressive among developed economies. It is possible that if the central bank does not hike, the Gilt yield curve will be steeping with short-term Gilts gaining the most as the market pushes back on next year’s rate expectations. What is going on? China reports first omicron variant case of covid - bringing fears of supply chain disruptions due to the country’s zero tolerance policy on virus cases that can mean profound shutdowns in response to outbreaks. Chinese property developers under new pressure, with the focus this time on Shimao Group Holdings, whose Hong-Kong listing is down over 75% this year and down over 30% over the last week on concerns that a deal between the company’s business units is a sign of financial stress for the company. The company’s 2030 USD-denominated bonds lost almost 13% overnight as the yield rose above 10%. Other Chinese property developer shares were also under pressure overnight. Tesla shares down 5% as growth stocks are under pressure. Tesla shares pushed below $1,000 yesterday adding further pressure to related assets in the Ark Innovation ETF and Bitcoin is also seen lower this morning. Elon Musk sold $907mn worth of shares yesterday according to a filing overnight in order to pay taxes on another round stock options that were exercised. Toyota finally pushes into EV. Japan’s largest carmaker wants to compete with Tesla and Volkswagen announcing $35bn of investments into battery electric vehicles showing the first sign that Toyota is acknowledging that this is the future of the industry. Toyota has so far pursued hybrids on the ground of being more economical, but this push into BEV with 30 new models validates BEVs once and for all, even though Toyota is still saying that it does not know which technology will win. US Harley-Davidson set to spin-off EV motorcycle unit – the plan to spin off Harley’s EV business via a SPAC saw Harley-Davidson shares spike 19% before surrendering most of the gains. Harley’s LiveWire EV business unit will combine with SPAC AEA-Bridges Impact to form a new publicly traded company. The move is meant to take advantage of the premium the market is willing to pay for pure-play EV companies. EU diplomats suggest time running out on Iran nuclear deal - as Iran is progressing rapidly toward enriching uranium for potential use in nuclear weapons. The diplomats worry that without a breakthrough soon, the original 2015 agreement “will very soon become an empty shell.” What are we watching next? The Wednesday FOMC as the year’s final major macro event risk. The FOMC meeting tomorrow is set to bring a very different monetary policy statement from the prior statement after the Fed’s clear pivot to inflation fighting mode. As well, the meeting will see an update of economic forecasts and interest rate policy forecasts (the “dot plot” in which 19 Fed members forecast where the Fed funds rate will likely be in 2022-24 and in the longer term). Most interesting will be the degree to which Fed members have raised their policy rate forecasts relative to what the market is predicting, which is for just under three rate hikes through the end of next year. Prior forecasts have generally come in lower than market expectations. The baseline expectation for the pace of QE “tapering”, or slowing of purchases, is that the Fed will double the pace of tapering, which would mean the Fed’s balance sheet is set to stop growing by the end of March. Anything that suggests a faster pace of tapering than this doubling (for example, a promise to wind down before March) and that hints that a hike at the March FOMC meeting is possible would be a hawkish surprise. The European Council meets on Thursday, and apart from having to deal with Covid-19 and the Russian threat on its eastern borders, the council is also set to decide whether investments in gas and nuclear energy should be labelled climate friendly. The design of the EU green investment classification system is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition, especially given the need to reduce the usage of coal, the biggest polluter. Earnings Watch – the earnings calendar is getting very thin this week and no major earnings expected today. Wednesday: Inditex, Toro, Lennar, Heico, Trip.com, Nordson Thursday: FedEx, Adobe, Accenture Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Nov. CPI 1000 – Euro Zone Oct. Industrial Production 1100 – US Nov. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1300 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1330 – US Nov. PPI 1900 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr before parliament committee 2130 – API Weekly Report on US Oil and Fuel Inventories 2330 – Australia Dec. Westpac Consumer Confidence 0200 – China Nov. Retail Sales 0200 – China Nov. Industrial Production During the day: IEA’s Monthly Oil Market Report   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Market Quick Take - December 10, 2021

Market Quick Take - December 10, 2021

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 10.12.2021 12:10
Macro 2021-12-10 08:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment has consolidated after sharp gains earlier this week as the market nervously eyes the US November CPI release today from the US and whether this will trigger a more hawkish FOMC meeting next week. The US White House has already been out attempting damage control from the inflation headlines today, saying that the data will not reflect recent declines in gasoline and other prices.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities and particularly tech stocks consolidated a significant chunk of the sharp gains from earlier this week, with speculative sectors getting the worst of it on the day, although most stocks were down on the day. A high US November CPI release today could spook investors as it would raise the anticipation of an even more hawkish FOMC meeting next week. EURUSD – The EURUSD rally attempt from Wednesday faltered in what now looks a mere tactical squeeze ahead of today’s US November CPI report (more below). Given that the slide in EURUSD has largely tracked with the rise in Fed expectations, the degree to which those expectations are adjusted higher or lower in the wake of today’s US CPI data and then next week in the wake of the FOMC meeting Wednesday and ECB meeting Thursday will likely correlate with EURUSD direction, where the focus is on the cycle lows just below 1.1200 for a possible run at 1.1000 on a break lower and the tactical pivot high near 1.1380. USDJPY and JPY crosses – the omicron variant news of some two weeks ago triggered a huge slide in USDJPY just after it was trying to engineer a break above multi-year highs near 114-50. Similar to developments in crude oil and longer US yields, USDJPY has failed to get back to the upper reaches of the recent range since that sell-off, which bottomed out near the 112.50 area – the current trigger zone for a possible further sell-off wave (most like in a scenario of cratering risk sentiment and US treasuries serving as a safe-haven) that could poke at the important 111.00-50 downside pivot zone. Elsewhere, JPY crosses backed up very sharply this week on hopes that the omicron variant will prove mild and won’t impact the growth outlook, but the scale of the rally or squeeze has been modest relative to the prior sell-off. Watching areas like 127.50-128.00 in EURJPY and 79.00 in AUDJPY in coming sessions for whether another wave of JPY strength is in the cards. Crude oil’s (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN22) week-long rally hit the buffers yesterday with Brent and WTI retracing back towards support at their 200-day moving averages at $73 and $69.80 respectively. A study finding the omicron variant is 4.2 times more transmissible than the delta combined with new restrictions among several nations helped weaken the sentiment, and with end of year approaching many traders are increasingly becoming more risk adverse, potentially leading to more fluctuations. Focus today on omicron news, US inflation data and whether the mentioned support level can be maintained. Wheat (WHEATMAR22 & ZWH2) trades near five-week low following three days of losses which accelerated yesterday after the USDA raised its outlook for global stocks. The 3% drop in Chicago also helped drag down the recent highflyers futures for Kansas and Paris milling wheat. Global stock levels at the end of the 2022-23 season received a boost from production upgrades in Russian (1mt) and Australian (2.5mt) while US export slowed with high prices curbing demand. US Treasuries (TLH, TLT).  Yesterday’s 30-year auction showed that the market is not willing to buy long-term US Treasuries at current low yields. The 30-year auction was priced with a high yield of 1.895%, tailing by 3.2bps. Although the tail was smaller than last month’s 5.2bps, it would have been enough to cause a selloff in long-term Treasuries. However, covid distortions kept yields compressed, hence volatility in rates was avoided. Today’s CPI numbers are in focus as a high number is likely to contribute to more upward pressure in the yield curve. What is going on? The US White House was already out attempting damage control on inflation before today’s CPI release. A White House official, economic adviser Brian Deese, was out late yesterday saying that today’s US November CPI release won’t reflect recent drops in the price of key commodities, especially gasoline and natural gas as it is “backward looking”. China property developers formally declared to have defaulted - as Fitch Ratings noted missed interest payments on Evergrande and Kaisa Group Holdings USD bonds as it downgraded these issues to restricted default. USDCNY and USDCNH bounce sharply a day after posting new low for the year - China fixed the USDCNY level at a far weaker level than expected and announced an FX reserve ratio increase to 9%, forcing domestic banks to maintain higher reserves of foreign currencies.  These are rather obvious signals that China would like to avoid a further rise in its currency after a powerful and broad rally that saw both the offshore and onshore yuan posting new highs for the US dollar for the year just this Wednesday. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies close sharply lower – with Bitcoin closing at its lowest levels on a weekday since September. Technically, the 40-45k zone looks important for avoiding a more significant capitulation lower after the recent weekend meltdown that took the price some 20% lower to below 43k before support was found. According to coinmarketcap.com, the market cap of the nearly 15.5k cryptocurrencies is currently near $2.26 trillion after peaking near $2.93 trillion in November, a drawdown of over 22%. What are we watching next? US November CPI data release today, expected at 6.8% year-on-year for the headline number and 4.9% at the core, both of which would be the highest readings in decades. Given that expectations are so high, would a slightly hotter than expected number move the needle on a Friday ahead of next week’s important FOMC meeting? A significant beat to the upside just might make a difference, given that the Fed has clearly made a shift toward fighting inflation and would probably need to bring a March 2022 rate hike possibility into its forward guidance. Fed rate expectations for next year are poised near the high for the cycle, suggesting a 0.8% Fed Funds rate (vs. currently 0-0.25%) is priced in through the December 2022 Fed meeting. The EU is set to decide by December 22 whether investments in gas and nuclear energy should be labelled climate friendly. The design of the EU green investment classification system is closely watched by investors worldwide and could potentially attract billions of euros in private finance to help the green transition, especially given the need to reduce the usage of coal, the biggest polluter. Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0905 – ECB President Lagarde, others speaking at panel discussion1300 - Poland National Bank of Poland meeting minutes1330 – US Nov. CPI1500 – US Dec. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Gold – Recovery ahead

Gold – Recovery ahead

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.12.2021 13:26
https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
UK jobs data

UK jobs data

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.12.2021 13:18
British jobs data came out stronger than expected, supporting the British currency and helping the FTSE100 partially counter the market pressure from the start of the day on Tuesday. Wage growth has been slower than expected, adding 4.9% in the last three months to the same period a year earlier, vs expected 4.6%. The rate of wage growth is declining due to a move away from the low base effect, and current data leaves earnings above inflation (4.2%). This is a noticeably stronger performance than in Europe and the USA, where wages are not keeping up with price rises. Furthermore, the number of jobless claims has fallen for the ninth month in a row, although there are still 722K more claims than before the pandemic hit in March 2020. On balance, strong wage growth and a recovery in employment give the Bank of England more room to tighten monetary policy. Later this week, the BoE will likely give transparent hints of an imminent rate hike, further supporting the contrast of the pound against the euro.
Chart of the Week - Global vs US Corporate Earnings

Chart of the Week - Global vs US Corporate Earnings

Callum Thomas Callum Thomas 14.12.2021 14:51
Global vs US Corporate Earnings: On the topic of US vs global equities, a key reason for the extended trend of US beating global equities has been the long-term cycles in relative strength of *earnings*.   The chart below shows that US earnings have outgrown global peers substantially over the past decade. Interestingly enough it follows a previous decade of global earnings outgrowing US earnings.   Basically this lens presents a glimpse of the fundamental trends underpinning the price trends that have been fairly extensively documented.   Thus one takeaway is that this long-term cycle in fundamentals will need to turn in order to reinforce any turn in price. But also of significance is value: I would argue that the superior profitability and earnings growth of US companies is already in the price - and then some. So there is some nuance to this puzzle…Key point: US corporate earnings have outgrown global peers over the past decade.       NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/       Best regards, Callum Thomas Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts   Follow us on: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
Three ways to buy bitcoin

Three ways to buy bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.12.2021 13:15
With more than a trillion-dollar market cap, bitcoin is now in an echelon where regulation would be fearful to intervene harshly, since a bitcoin crash would affect other markets. In a way, the last pillar is cemented for there to be little risk to think of a world without bitcoin. That being said, even if only minor, some bitcoin exposure is now widely accepted as a wise decision of portfolio management. We share three ways of purchase that we find conservative. We aim to demystify the saga of bitcoins acquisition risk due to its volatility. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, zooming out, away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Risk is related to size. Suppose you buy a small enough amount alongside your overall market exposure, small enough that you can afford assets even to go to zero, then the risk is minimized. Would it be nice to have picked up a few thousand bitcoins when it was available at five dollars or a few hundred at fifty, certainly! Nevertheless, thinking long term and with volatility now being much less, the more bitcoin had settled in and is more widely accepted, even buying here now at US$47,000 is just fine. What we find less attractive is not owning any. And after that initial purchase, to add at price dips in bitcoin to grow a position size over time would be a possible extension of such a strategy. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has always reached new all-time highs again, and there is no fundamental or technical evidence that this behavior should change. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, buy low and hold: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Another way to participate in the bitcoin market if you already have some exposure is buying in tiny increments when markets seem low. This means buying after one of bitcoin’s steep declines and add this way to your long-term exposure. The weekly chart above shows with a green box an approximated entry zone. We used ABC pattern recognition, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, action-reaction models, and inter-market relationships along with other tools to zoom into such a low-risk and high success probability zone. Once such a zone is established, we go a time frame lower. In this case, the daily time frame, to fine-tune entries. Therefore, it increases probabilities and reduce entry risk even further. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, low-risk entries with quad exit: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 14th, 2021. Our third option presented is a more active way in market participation. It is refined in its form to suit more experienced traders to soothe trading psychology. In addition, it keeps entry risk to a minimum and maximizes profits. We openly share the underlying principles in our free Telegram channel. Alongside, we post real-time entries and exits for educational purposes. This approach has a sophisticated exit strategy (quad exits). It allows for partial profit-taking and expansive position size building over time to maximize one’s bitcoin exposure without added risks. The daily chart above focuses on two supply zones (yellow horizontal lines). The zones got identified by volume profile analysis (green histogram to the right side of the chart). We want the price to build a double bottom price pattern at one of these levels to enter a long position. We have already retraced from recent all-time highs in a typical percentage fashion for bitcoins trading behavior. Consequently, a turning point here is highly likely. Three ways to buy bitcoin: Overwhelm often stems from a lack of choices. After reading this chart book, we hope that those readers who feel intimidated experience a sigh of relief. Like gold, bitcoin is a store of value. We find a good likelihood that bitcoin might surpass the ten trillion gold market cap. Consequently, your investment right now has a fair chance to grow by a factor of ten or more.  After acquiring bitcoin, you can store your purchase in a small cold wallet, the size of a USB stick. Tuck it away, just like you do your precious metal coins. Buying now for the long term is still stepping in front of most market players which have succumbed to their doubts and procrastination. Consequently, it allows for this investment to be early, anticipating a likely change of the future regarding payment methods and store of value vehicles. Therefore, an asset with significant growth potential (=attractive risk/reward-ratio). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|
No Turnaround Tuesday for Equities?

No Turnaround Tuesday for Equities?

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 14.12.2021 15:01
December 14, 2021  $USD, Canada, Chile, Currency Movement, EMU, Hungary, Japan, Mexico, UK Overview:  Activity in the capital markets is subdued today, ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting conclusion and the ECB meeting on Thursday.  The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index fell for the third consecutive session.  European bourses are heavy after the Stoxx 600 posted an outside down day yesterday. Today would be the fifth consecutive decline. Selling pressure on the US futures indices continues after yesterday's losses.  Australia and New Zealand bonds played catch-up to the large drop in US Treasury yields yesterday, while European benchmark yields are edging higher.  The 10-year US Treasury yield is around 1.43%.  The dollar is mixed against the major currencies.  The Canadian and Australian dollars and Norway are softer, while the Swiss franc and euro lead with around a 0.25%-0.35% gain.  Most emerging market currencies are little changed, though the Turkish lira is paring yesterday's intervention-fueled gains.  Led by the Hungarian forint ahead of the outcome of the central meeting, and helped by a firm euro, central European currencies lead the emerging markets.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is off for a second session after breaking a four-week slide last week.  Gold continues to consolidate and is within yesterday's range ($1782-$1791).  Oil is also trading quietly, with the January WTI contract in a $70.50-$72.00 range.  European (Dutch) natural gas is rising for the sixth session of the past seven, during which time it has increased by nearly a third.  US natgas has fallen by almost 30% in the past two weeks and is off for about 4.4% this week already.  Iron ore is paring yesterday's 6.5% gain, while copper is drifting lower and is extending its loss into the fourth consecutive session.   Asia Pacific Year-end pressures are evident in Japan's money markets, and the BOJ responded by arranging an unscheduled repo operation for the second consecutive session.  Yesterday's overnight operation was for JPY2 trillion (~$17.5 bln) after the repo rate rose to two-year highs.  The repo appeared to have been lifted by dealers securing funding for bill purchases.  Today the BOJ offered to buy JPY9 trillion of bonds under the repo agreement.   The US has offered to lift the steel and aluminum tariffs on Japan on similar terms as the deal struck with the EU.   A certain amount, based on some historical market share, can be shipped to the US duty-free, but over that threshold, a levy will be imposed.  Unlike the EU, Tokyo did not impose retaliatory tariffs.  Estimates suggest that Japan shipped around 5% of its steel to the US, though some might have made its way through Mexico.   The regional highlights for the week still lie ahead.  Tomorrow, China reports November retail sales, industrial production, new home prices, investment, and the surveyed jobless rate.  Retail sales are expected to have slowed, while industrial output may have firmed.  Investment in property and fixed assets may have stalled.  Japan has its tertiary index (October) tomorrow, a November trade balance on Thursday (it nearly always deteriorates from October), and the Friday BOJ meeting.  The BOJ is expected to extend some of its emergency facilities.  Australia reports its November jobs data first thing Thursday morning in Canberra.  After three months of job losses, a strong report is expected as social restrictions were lifted.   Today, the dollar is confined to about a quarter of a yen range above JPY113.50.  It has not traded above JPY114.00 this month so far.  Nor has it traded below JPY113.20 since last Monday.  An option for $760 mln at JPY1113.85 rolls off today.  The Australian dollar tested the session high near $0.7135 in the European morning but met a wall of sellers, perhaps, related to the nearly A$600 mln option at $0.7130 that expires today. It has traded down to a five-day low around $0.7090, which is the halfway point of last week's rally.  The next retracement (61.8%) is near $0.7065. The dollar continues to struggle to sustain upticks against the Chinese yuan. It is trading heavily today, its seventh loss in the past eight sessions.   Still, the greenback held above yesterday's low (~CNY6.3580).  It was unable to poke above CNY6.37.   The PBOC's dollar fixing was set at CNY6.3675, while the market (Bloomberg survey) anticipated CNY6.3666.   Europe The UK reported solid employment data.  The November claimant count rate eased to 4.9% from a revised 5.0% (initially 5.1%), representing a nearly 50k decline after the October decline was revised to 58.5k from -14.9k.  The pace of earnings growth slowed to 4.9% from 5.9% (three-month, year-over-year).  Employment rose by nearly 150k (three months) after a 247k increase previously.  Tomorrow, the UK sees November CPI and PPI.  Both are expected to have quickened from October.  Nevertheless, the BOE is now seen on hold until February.   Hungary's central bank is set to hike the base rate today.  A 40 bp increase would follow last month's 30 bp hike.  Today's move would be the sixth in a row.  The base rate began the year at 60 bp, and today's hike would lift it to 2.50%.  On Thursday, Hungary likely hiked the one-week deposit rate.  It has been hiked for the last four weeks.  It had been at 75 bp until June, when it was hiked by 15 bp.  It was lifted by 30 bp in July and again in August.  It reverted to 15 bp increases in September and October.  The one-week deposit rate was raised several times last month to 2.90%.  It is up another 40 bp so far this month, and it is expected to be lifted by another 20 bp this week.   In October, industrial output in the euro area rose 1.1% after a 0.2% decline in September.  The preliminary PMI will be reported on Thursday, ahead of the ECB meeting.  Activity likely slowed. The focus of the ECB meeting is on the guidance about bond-buying next year.  The emergency facility is expected to wind down at the end of Q1, but given that it will still be buying bonds, tapering may not be as necessary or pronounced as, say, with the Federal Reserve.  The ECB staff will also update forecasts, including a sharp upward revision to next year's while extending the projections to 2024.  There is also interest in what the ECB will do about its long-term loans (TLTRO).    The euro has firmed in the European morning but remains mired in a narrow range.  Indeed, the range over the past five sessions is a little less than a cent (~$1.1260-$1.1355). There is an option for nearly 500 mln euros at $1.1330 that expires today.  For the past month, the euro has been in a $1.12-$1.14 trading range, with the notable exception on November 24, when the low for the year was recorded (~$1.1185).   Sterling slipped below $1.32 in late Asian turnover but found bids lurking there, and Europe has extended its recovery toward $1.3235.  Resistance is seen in the $1.3260-$1.3275 area. Sterling has not traded above $1.33 since December 3, yet a move above there is necessary to lift the technical tone.   America The US reports November producer prices today.  The headline rate is expected to push above 9%, while the core rate pokes through 7%.  The market is understandably more sensitive to consumer prices than producer prices.  Tomorrow, ahead of the FOMC statement, the November retail sales (softer than the 1.7% headline increase in October) and the December Empire manufacturing survey will be released.   Although the Senate is expected to maneuver to lift the debt ceiling today, the Treasury is planning a large bill pay down (~$175 bln) to ensure it would have the space to settle the coupon auctions.  That said, the supply of bills is likely to improve through Q1 22, according to estimates.  By most accounts, the Treasury has overfunded itself, and this will allow it to cut back further on new supply, just as the Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate its tapering.   The Bank of Canada was told its inflation target remains 2% but that it can overshoot to support "maximum sustainable employment."  The central bank's language is important.  It said it would "continue" to support the labor market objective, suggesting that yesterday's adjustment to the mandate will have a minor operational impact.  In fact, with inflation (October CPI 4.7%, an 18-year high), Governor Macklem quickly indicated that this was not the situation when it could probe for the maximum sustainable employment.  Still, the new mandate requires that the central bank explain when it is using its new flexibility and how labor market outcomes are incorporated into monetary decisions.  Separately, Canada is proposing alternatives to the US proposed tax incentives for electric vehicles in the Build Back Better initiative.  Canada and Mexico claim that it violated the USMCA and throws a wrench in the 30-year auto integration.  The EU trade commissioner has also expressed concerns about whether the legislation would break the WTO rules too.   Late today, Chile's central bank is expected to deliver a 125 bp rate hike, the same as in October.  The overnight target rate began the year at 50 bp.  It was hiked by 25 bp in July and 75 bp in August.  With today's hike, it will stand at 4%.  More work is needed as November CPI was at 6.7%.  Chile holds the run-off presidential election this weekend.  In the first round last month, the conservative Kast drew 28% support while the left candidate Boris garnered 26%.  Chile's innovation during Covid was to allow people to withdraw funds from their pensions (yes, like a farmer eating their corn seed).  Three withdrawals were granted, but a fourth effort was rebuffed earlier this month.  The World Bank and the IMF expressed concern about the pension fund industry, which had been among the best in the region.  The Chilean peso is among the worst-performing emerging market currencies this year.  It has fallen nearly 15.5% and has only been "bested" by the Argentine peso (~17.3%) and the Turkish lira (-48%).   The Canadian dollar's retreat is being extended for the fifth consecutive session.  The greenback has largely held above CAD1.2800 and is drawing near the high seen after the employment reports on December 3 (~CAD1.2855).  We usually see the exchange rate is driven by 1) general risk appetite, 2) commodity prices, and 3) rate differential.  Here we note that Canada's 2-year premium has fallen from about 60 basis points at the start of last month to around 27 bp now.  Over the same time, the 10-year premium has wholly disappeared.  It was almost 20 bp on November 1 and currently is trading at a four basis point discount.  Meanwhile, the greenback is consolidating against the Mexican peso. For the fifth consecutive session, it has been mainly chopping in a MXN20.85-MXN21.08 range.   On Thursday, Banxico is expected to hike its overnight rate by 25 bp.  We continue to think it is more likely to hike by 50 bp than standpat.  Since June, it has lifted the target rate by 100 bp to 5%.   November CPI stood at 7.37%.     Disclaimer
GameStop Stock News and Forecast: Why did GME stock fall so much on Monday?

GameStop Stock News and Forecast: Why did GME stock fall so much on Monday?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.12.2021 16:01
GameStop stock fell nearly 14% on Monday to $136.88. Retail and meme stocks suffered quite sharp falls on Monday. AMC followed GME by falling to $23.24 for a 15% loss. The rise of the meme stock has been a unique feature of this investing year over any others with a special set of once-in-a-generation circumstances elevating many ordinary joes into stock trading stars. The first was GameStop (GME), which made possibly more headlines than any other stock in history. I confess to not doing a lot of research on this, but when you overhear numerous discussions in the local pub about the phenomenon, you know it must be serious. AMC then joined the party, and together the pair became the poster child stocks for the meme stock revolution. We even had the perfect pantomime villain in the Robinhood saga. Regardless, the retail investor is now a powerful force in the stock market, but that power has begun to wane as we approach the final finishing straight of the year. Now retail investors who got in early and held their nerve are being rewarded with yearly gains of 626% for GameStop (GME) and 996% for AMC. So any discussion of a collapse needs to be put into context. The fact does remain though that both stocks are actually well off their 2021 peaks. GameStop shed nearly 14% on Monday, closing at $136.88. There is a slight contradiction to the underlying trend with in-store attendance surely surging, definitely in my local store ahead of the holidays. GameStop (GME) chart, 15 minute GameStop (GME) stock news There was no underlying fundamental news. Rather a catalyst of market weakness and general risk aversion hurt this one. GME and AMC are both momentum names, and when that slows the results can be shocking. GameStop (GME) stock forecast The big catalyst was more technical in our view. In the absence of fundamental news flow, GameStop has been going through support levels like a knife through butter. $167 was a big level, marking the lows going back to September. Cracking below that level was the direct result of breaking the 200-day moving average. Monday saw a move to break $146, marking new six-month lows. GameStop now sits on the last key support before $118. GME shares closed at $136.88, though the volume-weighted average price for the year is $138. Below, the volume begins to strongly lighten, meaning less price discovery, meaning a likely move to $118. This amounts to a low volume fall. I know most readers do not like to hear bearish arguments, especially in some favourite name like GameStop and AMC, but we can only comment on the price action and trends we see. For now, bears are definitely in control. A break of $167 resistance would change the picture. GME 1-day chart
Inflation Beast Roars - Gold Only Modestly Up

Inflation Beast Roars - Gold Only Modestly Up

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 14.12.2021 17:09
  The inflation beast is growing stronger. Unfortunately for gold bulls, we cannot say the same about the yellow metal. Is sacrifice going on tomorrow? “Woe to you, oh earth and sea, for the Devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short (...). Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast,” says the Bible. The current number of the beast is not 6.66%, but 6.8% - this is how high the CPI annual inflation rate was in November. The number came above expectations and implies further acceleration in inflation from 6.2% in October. It was also the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982, as the chart below indicates. The latest BLS report on inflation also shows that consumer inflation rose 0.8% on a monthly basis after rising 0.9% in October. The core CPI rate increased 0.5% in November, following a 0.6-percent increase in the previous month. On an annual basis, it jumped 5% after a 4.6% increase in October (see the chart above). So, as , “hell and fire was spawned to be released”. Indeed, November readings clearly falsify central banks’ narrative about transitory inflation (which was already partially abandoned) and confirm my claim that inflation will stay with us for longer. As a reminder, my bet is that we will see the peak of inflation no earlier than somewhere in Q1 2022. Actually, it might be even a bit later, as the Omicron coronavirus variant could contribute to supply disruptions and add to inflationary pressure. What’s important here is to remember that current inflation is not merely a supply problem. It’s true that the energy index is surging, but the shelter index is also rising, and it has even surpassed the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. So, inflation has a really broad nature, which makes perfect sense, as it was caused by a boost in the money supply and strong demand. The BLS report confirms this view: “The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad increases in most component indexes, similar to last month.”   Implications for Gold The inflationary beast not only reared its ugly head, but it started roaring and growing stronger. The CPI inflation rate jumped to 6.8% in November, and it’s probably not the final number! Actually, it could have been even higher if the Omicron variant of coronavirus had not emerged, slowing down some expenditures. What does this acceleration imply for the gold market? Well, one week ago I wrote: “My bet is that inflation will stay elevated or that it could actually intensify further. In any case, the persistence of high inflation could trigger some worries and boost the safe-haven demand for gold.” Indeed, inflationary pressure intensified further, which pushed gold prices higher, as the chart below shows. However, I also expressed concerns about the Fed’s reaction to high inflation and its implications for gold: I’m afraid that gold bulls’ joy would be – to use a trendy word – transitory. The December FOMC meeting will be probably hawkish and will send gold prices down. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed is likely to turn more hawkish and accelerate the pace of tapering. The higher than expected inflation rate in November, and a very modest gold’s reaction to it, only strengthen my fears that tomorrow could be a great day for monetary hawks and a sad day for gold. Given such high inflation, the Fed has simply no choice and must accelerate the pace of the tapering and hiking cycle. So, to paraphrase Iron Maiden, sacrifice is going on tomorrow. On the other hand, gold often bottomed out in December historically (in recent years, it did so in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019). We’ll find out soon whether my fears were justified! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Crypto market clings to last line of defence

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.12.2021 08:47
Bitcoin continues to cling to its 200-day simple moving average, calming the entire crypto market. In the past 24 hours, the total value of all cryptocurrencies rose 3.3% to $2.19 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index rose 7 points to 28, which it was a week ago. Bitcoin has stabilised near the $48K level, keeping almost equal chances for gains and declines. A meaningful move away from the 200-day moving average line in one direction or the other promises to kick-start a strong momentum. Today the financial markets are wary of the words of the Fed Chairman and the comments of the FOMC. Deviations from expectations can affect the whole financial world, including bitcoin. And through it, the entire spectrum of cryptocurrencies. Ether has been showing close to zero momentum since the start of the day, remaining at $3850. On the chart, it is easy to see the activation of the bears near the 50-day moving average: a sharp breakdown in early December when this line became a resistance. The significant exception was the DOGE. The coin soared more than 40% after Musk tweeted that Tesla was considering selling merchandise for this coin. The explosive growth here is more of a secondary effect of its low liquidity and knee-jerk reaction to the message of Twitter’s chief influencer. Overall, there is also a downtrend here, which has taken 40% off the price from November 8th. However, taking a step back, it is still worth remaining cautious about expectations from the Fed and market dynamics after the announcement. Bitcoin’s technical support and Ether’s attempts to hold near $4000 are more likely to be buyers’ last hope of maintaining the illusion of a bull market. Overall, however, cryptocurrencies have been in a downtrend for more than a month now. These are not sharp dips and short squeezes but methodical selling by funds, as they are very similar to the dynamics of traditional markets. Other coins, where there are few market professionals, have a general downward trend.  
UK Consumer Inflation

UK Consumer Inflation

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.12.2021 09:33
UK consumer inflation accelerated to 5.1% in November, coming close to turning peaks in 2008 and 2014 of 5.2%. Higher levels were last seen in Britain only in the early 1990s. The figures exceeded economists’ average estimates of 4.8%. Overall, the entire inflation data package exceeded expectations, posting a 14.3% y/y rise in producer input prices. Producer selling prices show a 9.1% YoY increase. Meanwhile, producers continue to pass the increased costs onto consumers to a large extent, as producer input prices added 1% for November, selling prices added 0.9%, and consumer prices added 0.7%. Yesterday we saw employers broadly maintaining the pace of wage growth until October, indicating that the inflationary spiral continues to unwind. This is a significant signal for the Bank of England, which on Thursday could give a clear call of a rate hike early next year. And it’s good news for GBP, which gets support on the decline to 1.32 earlier this week.
When will the last Bitcoin be mined and where could BTC price be headed?

When will the last Bitcoin be mined and where could BTC price be headed?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.12.2021 16:01
There are less than 2.1 million BTC left to be mined. The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140. Analysts believe that the scarcity could propel BTC price to reach six figures. Bitcoin has recently reached a massive milestone, as miners have minted over 18.9 million BTC into supply, accounting for 90% of the 21 million maximum supply in the network. 90% of all Bitcoin have been created Less than 10% of the entire Bitcoin maximum supply now remains, and analysts are expecting the leading cryptocurrency’s scarcity to influence a supply shock which could propel BTC price higher. As the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are on the rise, analysts are predicting that the long-term price outlook for BTC will reach over six figures. As miners continue to mint new coins, the number of new Bitcoins entering into supply have steadily increased, reaching past the 18.9 million mark, resulting in 90% of all BTC to have been created and released into supply. After reaching this threshold, only 2.1 million BTC, or roughly 10% of the total 21 million Bitcoin remains to be mined. Additionally, there are estimates of three to five million Bitcoin that have not moved in the past decade, and a large portion could be permanently lost. The current block reward for miners is 6.25 BTC per block, and the rewards will decrease to half of the amount per block post-halving. Given the current rate of 900 BTC mined per day and 210,000 blocks are needed for every halving, the next reward halving is expected to be in May 2024. The current Bitcoin inflation rate fluctuates between 1.75% to 1.88% and after the halving event, the inflation rate is estimated to be around 1.10%. Until 2030, there will be two sizeable Bitcoin block reward halvings, after then, the rewards will be fractions of BTC. The inflation rate is expected to be around 0.50% by 2030, and 98.02% of all Bitcoin supply will be expected to be mined. The last BTC is expected to be mined in the year 2140. Given that Bitcoin hashrate surging to all-time highs, the network has accelerated the timeframe between halvings, as the daily issuance rate has rapidly increased than previously estimated. Bitcoin halvings occur every four years, allowing fewer coins to enter into supply, making the leading cryptocurrency scarce which increases demand. Marcus Soitiriou, analyst at GlobalBlock suggested that Bitcoin’s scarcity will lead to supply shock for BTC to overtake gold’s market capitalization over the next ten years, which stands at around $10 trillion. He estimates the bellwether cryptocurrency’s price to rise to $500,000 in the future. Bitcoin price awaits 12% ascent Bitcoin price has formed a falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating hope for the bulls. BTC has bounced off of the descending support trend line that forms the lower boundary of the governing technical pattern at $45,654. The leading cryptocurrency is now ready for a recovery. The first line of resistance may appear at the 21 four-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $48,501. Additional headwind may appear at the 50 four-hour SMA at $49,057. A break above the upper boundary of the falling wedge could put a 12% climb on the radar toward $55,435. BTC/USDT 4-hour chart If selling pressure increases, Bitcoin price will discover immediate support at the December 4 low at $46,131, before dropping toward the lower boundary of the prevailing chart pattern at $45,654.
How Supply Constraints Stole Christmas

How Supply Constraints Stole Christmas

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 15.12.2021 13:00
Equities 2021-12-15 10:30 Summary:  If you have tried to buy, well, basically anything, you've probably noticed that the shelves in the stores aren't as full as they used to be. With the Christmas shopping season approaching fast, there is a very real chance that Santa will have a hard time getting everyone what they want. In this article, we will look at how supply constraints will be this year's Grinch, how they will steal Christmas and how you can counteract them. It’s not news that the global supply chains are challenged, but how did it get here and what will it mean for your Christmas presents? In this article, we will look into how supply constraints came about and how they will impact Christmas shopping. “We’ve all become accustomed to the fact that when you order something online, you get it delivered within a few days. That system is broken down and we have to be much more patient now,” says Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategies at Saxo Group. Exceptional demand challenges the physical limits of the worldOne of the main drivers behind the supply constraints is a sudden imbalance between supply and demand, which is an effect of the COVID-19 breakout in the early 2020s. On one hand, a collapse of the global economy was expected, and on the other, governments across the globe started supporting both businesses and people by handing out money. The global economic collapse in large part didn’t happen and the world went into a lockdown, which meant that people suddenly had money on their hands but couldn’t travel or go to restaurants, so instead they started buying goods and commodities.“I normally tend to tell the Danish media that it all began when we got our holiday check paid out from the government, because then we all went on a spending spree. Restaurants and cinemas were closed, so we went online and went shopping for consumer goods. So, from having cancelled lots of orders, expecting a sharp decline in economic activity due to the pandemic, companies suddenly had to put in massive new amounts of orders and the system couldn't cope,” says Hansen.In a world where global activity was already historically high, an increase in demand like this puts a lot of strain on the physical parts of being able to supply people with what they want. “When you have such a big shift on the demand side, then when we talk about supply, it's about the physical world - ports, container ships, available containers - and its generally about infrastructure, which takes time to build out and thus can’t make as big a leap as the demand side, because we are talking about building big physical things,” says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategies at Saxo Group. The system, which Hansen is referring to is the logistics sector, where the physical limits of the world are challenged by rapid technological development. “I think what this whole supply chain issue has shown is that everything we're talking about is basically constraints we observe in the physical world, and if there's something we have seen during this pandemic, it’s a phenomenal rally in technology stocks and companies that operate in the online world. When I travel around and talk to clients, I show this chart where you can see that since the great financial crisis, technology companies’ revenue and profits have just taken off like a rocket relative to the physical world, the normal world, the one we are in, and these supply constraints are once again teaching us that a lot of the investment opportunities will be in the online world,” says Garnry. In essence, this means that because governments feared an economic collapse, they handed out money to people and companies who then used the money to buy more goods than usual, like e.g. technological devices and gadgets, which pushed the limits of the physical ships, ports, trucks and roads. In such a situation, the last thing you would want is to clog up the system, so the pressure on the physical limits will be even tougher. Enter Ever Given.The bottleneckWinding the clock back to March this year, one of the largest container ships in the world, Ever Given, was passing through the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important supply routes. Here it was hit by strong winds that forced the ship to turn, which resulted in the ship getting stuck across the canal. Some 400 container ships were queued up for six days, creating not only shipping delays but also further bottlenecks when the ships arrived at ports at the same time, increasing the pressure on the physical world. So now you had governments handing out money, a global population eager to buy goods, ports that are already overworked and a global trading route which is closed down, halting the usual flow of goods from East to West. A shortage of peopleIt’s probably fair to think that such bottlenecks shouldn’t take long to fix as long as everything is operating as it should. But here it’s necessary to understand two things. The first thing is that on the sea, transportation of cargo is constantly becoming bigger, but on land, this isn’t the case. “Containers ships are getting bigger and bigger, but you still need one truck to move the container to and from the harbour. So, it’s an increasing challenge that these ships roll in and need to be offloaded and loaded in a relatively short time. This has become a major obstacle, like we have seen in Felixstowe in the UK, in Los Angeles and even in Rotterdam,” Hansen says.At the same time, there’s a historic shortage of truck drivers around the globe. In the US alone, it’s estimated that 80,000 additional truck drivers are needed to handle the number of containers that could be delivered at the country’s ports. The reasons for this are many, but it’s an important factor in the supply constraints, and one that isn’t easily fixed.Generally, truck drivers have been in short supply since the mid-2000s. In addition, many economies around the world work at close to full capacity, which usually allows people with lower-paying jobs – like truckers – to move up to higher-paying and more attractive jobs, due to increased demand for workers. Also, governmental support during COVID may have provided some drivers with money they’ve been able to use to get better jobs. “You need a lot of truck drivers, which has been another issue, as there’s a shortage of truck drivers. This is mainly because some of them have found other jobs during the lockdown, where wages are rising in other industries as well, so it's difficult to find all the truck drivers needed to move all these containers. That means that you suddenly end up with a harbour full of empty containers stacking up, which takes space away from the filled ones that need to come in,” says Hansen. So, along with increased demand putting the physical world under pressure, and the blockage of an important trading route, there are also not enough people and trucks to handle the containers when ships do roll in, all adding to the delays and difficulties of moving things around the world.COVID closuresWhen trying to explain how we ended up with supply constraints, it’s impossible not to mention the COVID-19 virus, because it has had a significant impact. As previously mentioned, one reaction to the pandemic has been governmental stimulus, which has created a number of ripple effects. More concretely, COVID-19 has affected operations at ports around the globe – especially in China, one of the world’s key production hubs. “The Chinese zero-case policy on COVID-19 is making it difficult to keep supply chains efficient, because when there’s a new series of cases in China, they tend to close down pretty large parts of the particular region where the cases are happening,” says Garnry.The shortage to rule them allStruggling to ship goods around the world is a major challenge. But struggling to supply the most crucial component in today’s technology goods is arguably a much bigger issue. Semiconductors – also called integrated circuits or microchips – are used in a wide range of goods and products, including electronics. The semiconductor shortage – like the others we’ve described – has been caused by a variety of snowball effects, including bad weather in Texas, trade disputes between China and the US, and especially the COVID-19 pandemic. But this shortage is more significant, constraining sales of some of our most in-demand goods. In that sense, the semiconductor shortage is the real Grinch, which will steal the most popular Christmas presents even before they’re produced. “The semiconductor shortage is impacting everything from Nintendo to car production and PlayStations. iPhone production has also been cut by as many as 10 million units due to these constraints. So, even if you wish for it, and you want it and it's cool, you can't get it,” says Garnry.And if you’re wishing for a new car, semiconductors can also spoil the day. Car manufacturers, who buy lower margin semiconductors, were late in ordering chips after the economy didn’t collapse due to the pandemic. The semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers thanks to high demand for graphics cards for gaming and crypto, as well as chips used in data centres and computers. Car manufacturers were therefore put at the back of the line and have ever since scrambled to get priority, causing car production to be reduced due to lack of semiconductors, meaning that there are a lot of cars that are almost ready to be shipped, but can’t be because they are missing this one component,” says Garnry. Product centralisationLooking at the different reasons why supply chains have ended up in the pickle they’re in, one of them also points to a potential solution, which would be a massive shift in the production strategy that companies have pursued for a number of years. “If you're a large consumer goods company today and your main markets are the US and Europe, you must be contemplating whether you should have production closer to your end markets,” says Garnry. He adds:“Not too long ago, we had a very engaging conversation with Jens Bjørn Andersen, CEO of DSV, and we talked about this situation. In the financial industry, we always suggest that investors should make sure to  diversify their portfolio. But for whatever reason, this concept seems to have escaped the manufacturing industry when you look at their portfolio of production. Said in another way – production companies have sent huge amounts of their global production to China and that really hurts when you have disruptions like these. This could lead us to see more fragmented production and that manufacturing companies begin to diversify their supply chains. My bet is that in the future, we will see some production come back to main consumer markets in the western world.” How to un-steal Christmas from the supply GrinchWhile Garnry’s point about production closer to main markets is relevant, it’s a long-term solution that won’t help this year’s Christmas shopping. For now, we’ll just have to get used to it being more difficult to get what we want.“We need to get the balance back in terms of supply and demand. Until then, we're going to have to live with some disruptions for a number of years and that will create these temporary obstructions in various places in the world,” says Hansen. Garnry adds that the bottlenecks will solve themselves: “We will get there, but it will take some time,” he says.So, what do we do this Christmas? While the Grinch may steal your car, iPhone and PlayStation, Hansen thinks we should look at our wish list and wish for something the Grinch can’t steal – and where we can do good. “Regarding Christmas, think a bit alternatively. The global economy came back very strongly, but there was a whole area which was left in the dark and that was the service sector. So, spare a thought for them if you can't get the goods you are looking for. Wish for a gift card to the cinema or to a restaurant or to some local experience. They're not going to run out of supplies and could use it,” he says.If you want to read more about how to invest in the logistics sector during these challenges, take a look at this article. If you want to get inspiration for more investments in the logistics sector, take a look at Garnry’s theme basket here.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

FOMC helped Cryptos to hold important levels

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.12.2021 08:33
Over the past 24 hours, total crypto market capitalisation rose by 2.1% to $2.24 trillion, recovering to the levels at the start of the week. Yesterday, the figure was close to the $2.0 trillion mark, but demand for risk assets recovery supported cryptos, providing around a 12% rise from the bottom to peak in the following four hours. On balance, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index reclaimed another point, rising to 29. The bulls seem to be putting in the necessary minimum effort to keep the positive picture on the charts of the major cryptocurrencies. But there isn’t much more to do now. Bitcoin is up 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $48.7K. The bulls managed to push BTCUSD into the area above the 200-day moving average but are not getting away from it. Etherereum is adding 3.5%, clinging to the $4K. The strong market reaction after the FOMC pushed ETHUSD above this round level, but we saw some selling pressure in the morning. Short-term traders should closely watch whether the former support has turned into resistance. The pair of major cryptocurrencies appear to have been supported by a general increase in risk appetite in the markets following the FOMC announcements. However, investors should keep in mind that this upward move in traditional financial markets was more of a “buy the rumours, sell the facts” style reaction. Fundamentally, news about the faster QE tapering and greater willingness to raise rates has already been priced in during previous weeks. But at the same time, long-term investors should not lose sight of the natural tightening of financial conditions because of these moves, which will slowly but persistently reduce demand for risky assets. The main risk for the crypto market is that we have seen a monetary regime switch in the last couple of months, which promises to take some of the demand for crypto away..
Tough Choices Ahead

Tough Choices Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.12.2021 15:51
S&P 500 declined on poor PPI data, with financials virtually the only sector closing in the black. Rising yields and risk-off credit markets, that‘s the answer – markets are afraid of a more hawkish Fed than what they expect already. While the central bank will strive to project a decisive image, I‘m looking for enough leeway to be left in, and packaged in incoming data flexibility and overall uncertainty. Good for them that the fresh spending initiative hasn‘t yet passed. Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt. I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate). As I wrote in yesterday‘s summary: (…) Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 had a weak day, but the dip was being bought – there is fledgling accumulation regardless of deteriorating internals, and tech selloff continuing. Credit Markets HYG even staged a late day rally – bonds are in a less panicky mood, not anticipating overly hawkish Fed message. And that‘s good for the markets that sold off a bit too much. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside appears limited here, and today‘s premarket downswing has been largely erased already. Much catching up to do on the upside, just waiting for the catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is on the defensive now – the weak session yesterday didn‘t convince me. I‘m though still looking for higher prices even as today‘s premarket took black gold below $70. Still not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper Copper upswing didn‘t materialize, and worries about the economic outlook keep growing. The sideways trend keeps holding for now though, still. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, but the bottom (at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH) might not be in just yet. Cryptos remain in wait and see mode. Summary Bears aren‘t piling in before today‘s FOMC – the Fed‘s moves will though likely be interpreted as not overly hawkish. Given more incoming signs of slowing economy, the window of opportunity to tighten, is pretty narrow anyway. Why take too serious a chance? Yes, I‘m looking for the weakness in real assets to turn out temporary, and for stocks not to be broken by inflation just yet – as argued for in the opening part of today‘s analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
MSFT Stock News and Forecast: Why Microsoft is on target for $300

MSFT Stock News and Forecast: Why Microsoft is on target for $300

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.12.2021 16:08
Microsoft stock falls over 3% on Tuesday ahead of Fed. Tech stocks suffer as rate hikes hit high growth names. MSFT is close to all-time highs, volume remains elevated. Microsoft (MSFT) is pausing for breath near all-time highs as the market awaits Fed taper talk Wednesday. While high growth stocks may wait in trepidation, more established names such as Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) have continued to attract fresh investors. High growth usually means low profits, but this is certainly not the case for Microsoft or Apple. Indeed, recent research from Goldman Sachs demonstrated the divergence between mega tech names this year versus unprofitable tech names. Unprofitable tech names are down circa 20% for the year, while mega tech is up nearly 30%. The logic is sound – higher rates disproportionally hit high growth rates. By comparison, established mega tech are cash cows that offer huge profits, huge leverage, huge purchasing power and operate in a quasi-monopolistic stance whereby inflationary pressures can be passed on to consumers. GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT outperformance versus Nasdaq since the start of the year Microsoft stock news It used to be the case that consumer staples were the de facto defensive stocks that investors retreated to in times of stress. After all, we all need food for survival. Utility stocks also were well-used defensive mechanisms for much the same logic, basic necessity. However, with the advent of mobile technology, essentials are now seen as communication and news stocks. Big tech fulfills all these roles. Our smartphone is a means of communication, a means of news service, television, shopping, etc. We now view many big tech services as essential and ones we cannot live without. Combine this with huge revenue, in many cases monopolistic qualities, and piles of cash, and you have the perfect defensive stocks for the 21st century. This is why Apple actually appreciated during last week's Omicron sell-off. What we are currently seeing is high growth meme names taking a disproportionate hit ahead of the Fed. Think Tesla down again, and AMC and GME collapsing. The Nasdaq index was the underperformer on Tuesday. Microsoft stock forecast $318 is our key short-term pivot. Already MSFT has put in a lower high, albeit just below all-time highs. A break of $318 sets a lower low and puts a short-term trend in motion. We specify short term here. This is what most of you likely are interested in. The longer-term trend remains bullish, fundamentals are strong, earnings power is consistent and defensive qualities mentioned above can shield it from inflationary pressures. However, there are some bearish points to note for short-term swing traders. We have a decling MACD and RSI. We also have bearish divergences from both indicators, significantly so in the case of the RSI. Based on this we feel $318 is likely to break, and below we see support at $300. We base this not only on the round number theory but on the volume profile. Volume means price acceptance and support. MSFT 1-day chart
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Attempts Rebound - 08.11.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.11.2021 09:09
USDCHF struggles for bids The US dollar bounced higher on solid jobs performance in October. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off. Sellers have started to cover after a close above the immediate support at 0.9170. However, the initial momentum was held back after the RSI shot into the overbought territory. The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.9225, which sits on the 30-day moving average to attract more followers. On the downside, a break below 0.9100 may trigger a fall towards 0.9020. USDCAD tests supply area The Canadian dollar claws back some losses after Canada’s unemployment rate shrank to 6.7% in October. The US dollar’s break above 1.2430 has put the bears under pressure. An overbought RSI has put a limit on the upside as intraday buyers take profit. The bulls are making an attempt at 1.2500. This level was a key support on the daily chart and has now turned into a resistance. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a bullish reversal. A fall below 1.2375 would put the demand zone over 1.2300 at the test once again. US 30 rises as risk appetite grows The Dow Jones 30 finds support from the passage of the $1 trillion US infrastructure bill. The index saw an acceleration to the upside after it rallied above the previous peak at 35600. Sentiment remains bullish with short-term price action grinding up along a rising trendline. 36600 would be the next target. The RSI’s overbought situation has led to a temporary retracement which could be an opportunity for trend followers to stake in. 36070 on the trendline is the first level where we can expect a rebound.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Needs Catalyst

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Needs Catalyst

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.12.2021 08:38
XAUUSD awaits breakout Gold consolidates as traders await the Fed’s monetary policy update. The metal came under pressure after it erased all gains from the November rally. Price action is stuck in a narrowing range between the daily support at 1760 and 1806. This indicates the market’s indecision. A bearish breakout would confirm the bearish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger an extended sell-off towards the floor at 1680. On the upside, a rally would send the price to retest the previous peak at 1870. GBPCAD rises towards key resistance The pound bounced back after Britain showed strong wage growth in the three months to October. A bullish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum in the latest sell-off. A break above 1.6770 and then a bullish MA cross were the confirmation for a reversal. The pair is heading towards the daily resistance level at 1.7100. Its breach may lead to a broader rally in the medium term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI could temporarily limit the extension. 1.6900 is the closest support in case of a pullback. USOIL seeks support Oil prices struggled after the International Energy Agency said that the omicron strain may threaten global demand. WTI crude is hovering under the 20-day moving average after the RSI briefly shot into the overbought territory. 74.10 near the 30-day moving average seems to be a tough nut to crack for now. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and send the price to the daily resistance at 79.00. Otherwise, 68.00 from the latest rally is the support to keep the rebound valid.
BoE Preview: No rate hike to keep Santa happy?

BoE Preview: No rate hike to keep Santa happy?

Luke Suddards Luke Suddards 16.12.2021 12:57
GBP USD EUR 15 Dec 2021 Take a read below of all the essential details to know for this event. The Bank of England are back to deliver their interest rate policy decision tomorrow at 12pm GMT. No surprises like which unfolded at the November meeting are expected to be thrown the market’s way as the consensus clearly now expects a delay to the 15bps hike. The BoE have gone from one uncertainty to the next – labour data to now omicron. The announcement of Plan B restrictions was the nail in the coffin for any moves by the BoE come Thursday. If even one of the most hawkish members of the MPC (Saunders) stated there could be advantages to waiting for more data on how the omicron variant will impact the U.K. economy before raising rates then we can expect the more dovish/neutral members to be hesitant on the rate hike front. This is quite clearly a patient committee which sees “value in waiting for additional information”. It costs them less to wait and fall temporarily behind the curve as opposed to jumping the gun too early (remember monetary policy has a lag between implementation and visible effects). At the last meeting the interest rate vote was 7-2, with Saunders and Ramsden leading the hawkish charge, however, with the latest commentary by Saunders could we see this meeting’s vote at 8-1 instead? This combined with any softening in the policy statement tone could have dovish implications for money market expectations around February’s meeting, potentially applying some pressure on GBP. Some other historical precedents provide further support for a hold at this meeting – since gaining independence the BoE has never hiked at a December meeting with Christmas round the corner as well as preferring to take policy action at meetings that coincide with monetary policy reports and press conferences. Traders focus will be shifting to February’s meeting as they try to assess whether the BoE will hike by 15bps vs 25bps or hold again. This really does depend on the damage caused by omicron over the next 2 months. The UK with their higher natural immunity and the rapid ramp up in booster jabs (41% of population 12+ and 86% of over 60 population triple jabbed) should be able to avoid harsher lockdowns like we’ve seen previously, limiting the economic impact. This is very much dependent on the number of hospitalizations and deaths (busiest time of year for the NHS in Winter as it is). Case data should have peaked by the time of the next meeting (if it follows previous trends), with the BoE having more information at their fingertips to evaluate whether economic risks (how does the labour market hold up) from omicron will be on a downward trajectory. Continuing with the medium-term outlook, the SONIA curve indicates a bank rate of around 1% by end 2022. This is quite aggressive and creates the risk of a dovish repricing in those expectations if there are any speedbumps throughout next year. This would be a headwind for sterling. Labour, Inflation & GDP data: We received the first official employment report with the distortionary effects of furlough removed. It went fairly smoothly and I think bar omicron this would have been enough for the BoE to move. Average earnings (excluding bonuses) which feeds through to wage pressures was above consensus at 4.3% vs 4% exp, the employment gains of 149k was below the 225k anticipated, however, the claimant count showed a good decrease and the unemployment rate was lower than the 4.3% expected as well as tracking below the BoE’s forecast of 4.5%. Taking into account record vacancies and these figures the labour market looks healthy and is heading in the right direction. Moving onto the price stability side of the equation. Headline and core inflation both substantially beat the market’s expectations and with core (strips out volatile items) at 4% it is now the highest reading since 1992. The surge above 5% at a headline level has arrived earlier than many economist and the Bank themselves expected. Upon closer inspection, services inflation remains weak and price pressures are still largely being driven on the energy and goods components. The concern for the BoE of higher inflation is an unanchoring of expectations and second round effects such as wages rising – this would create more persistent inflation and could prove difficult lowering it back to the 2% target within the Bank’s ideal timeframe. Looking at OIS pricing post this inflation drop it seems rate markets have got a tad ahead of themselves with pricing for a hike tomorrow now at 74%. This could actually see sterling weaken if a hold is announced. GDP data out Friday almost was flat from a MoM perspective as it creeped up by a paltry 0.1%, this is quite significantly down from the 0.6% seen in September as well as the consensus of 0.4%. This leaves the UK economy 0.5% smaller than pre-covid levels. It remains to be seen how the economy will fare going forward as restrictions could be increased as key personnel involved in these decisions produce ominous warnings - CMO Whitty warned that UK hospitals could be overwhelmed in four weeks. Given the UK’s economy is heavily skewed towards services, tighter restrictions are a definite risk to the recovery. GBPUSD: GBPUSD found a pre-meeting bid after the inflation numbers and saw price move above both the mini descending channel and back into the main descending channel. I think a good upside target is the round number 1.33 around the 21-day EMA. Above that 1.335 (white horizontal line) would be the next go to. On the downside, a break of 1.32 would be key bringing the 8 December lows of 1.316 into play. The RSI flirted with oversold and has risen 10 points to around 40. Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURGBP: EURGBP has failed again to show proper follow through as it breached its upper trend line and the 200-day SMA. The RSI resistance line at 65 proved again to be a useful tool in guiding the sustainability of the move. Price is now hovering just above its 50-day SMA and right on top of its 21-day EMA. Targets wise on the upside again moves into the 200-day SMA and trend line would be important (around 0.855) and then on the downside the 50-day SMA will prove important with moves below there bringing 0.845 into play. Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.)
(WETH) Wrapped Ether Explained. What Is It?

This hedge fund poured over $456 million into Ethereum in a week as ETH price dipped

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.12.2021 16:08
A hedge fund has reaped the opportunity to buy the recent Ethereum price dip. Ether has recently dropped to a swing low of $3,675. Speculators believe the fund’s CEO caused fear, uncertainty and doubt to drive ETH price lower. While Ethereum price has risen significantly this year, the token has recently suffered several periods of volatility lately, reaching a swing low at $3,675. Ethereum fear and greed index is displaying a reading of 34, indicating fear which suggests that the token may be slightly oversold. A hedge fund has taken the opportunity to buy the ETH dip, pouring over $456 million into the cryptocurrency in less than two weeks. Hedge fund buys the Ethereum dip Cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has purchased $56 million worth of Ether earlier on December 14. Etherscan shows that the firm, founded by Su Zhu, has transferred 14,833 ETH from Binance and Coinbase to its wallet. This is not the first time the hedge fund has purchased a large amount of Ethereum. Last week, Three Arrows Capital transferred $400 million in ETH from crypto exchanges FTX, Binance and Coinbase to its wallet. Crypto reporter Colin Wu first spotted the transactions and Zhu stated that he will continue to “bid hard on any panic dump,” and that purchasing 100,000 ETH is “dust,” suggesting that more purchases in Ether are yet to be made. However, the founder of the crypto hedge fund has been involved in controversy in the crypto community, as he revealed in November that he “abandoned Ethereum despite supporting it in the past.” His statement attracted attention from the crypto industry, and he has since softened his stance and even turned it around and said, “I love Ethereum and what it stands for.” Speculators in the crypto market suggested that Zhu tried to create fear, uncertainty and doubt to drive Ethereum price down to buy more ETH at a lower price. Ethereum price struggles with major headwind at $3,900 Ethereum price has rebounded slightly after a major drop toward the swing low at $3,675 on December 13. ETH continues to be sealed within a symmetrical triangle but is struggling to battle with resistance at the 200 twelve-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,900 as buyers are slowly entering the market. An additional obstacle may appear at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,989, then at the 21 twelve-hour SMA at $4,112. A spike in buy orders may see Ethereum price tag the 50% retracement level at $4,139 then head toward the upper boundary of the prevailing chart pattern, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,289. ETH/USDT 12-hour chart If Ethereum price slices above the aforementioned line of resistance, a 26% bounce toward $5,404 is on the radar. If selling pressure increases, Ethereum price may discover immediate support at the lower boundary of the governing technical pattern at $3,712 before sliding toward the swing low at $3,675.
A quick story before we start

A quick story before we start

Brent Donnelly Brent Donnelly 16.12.2021 15:18
FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CONNECTICUT May 6, 2010 4:55AM The Connecticut air is cold and damp. The trader moves in silence. He steps quietly through the pitch-black darkness of his Victorian McMansion and toward the door. As he disarms the home security system, the BEEP BEEP BEEP of the keypad code he enters is impossibly loud in the quiet of the pre-dawn morning. He steps out of the house, closes and locks the door, and hops into his car. As he rolls down the driveway and into the foggy morning, he inserts a Deadmau5 CD and blasts it at high volume in an effort to wake up and get pumped for another day of trading. But this will not just be another day of trading. This will be one of the most insane trading days of his career. It has been a frustrating year so far. The Eurozone Crisis has been smoldering for months but the trader’s attempts to sell the euro have been met with massive countertrend rallies as the Fed embarks on another round of USD-negative quantitative easing (QE). They call EURUSD a collision of two garbage trucks. The trader struggles to steer clear of the wreckage. His strongest view recently has been lower USDJPY. There is risk aversion popping up all over the place as markets worry about a domino effect where Greece crashes out of the Eurozone, followed by Spain, Portugal, Ireland and then finally Italy. Everyone is bearish stocks as the S&P 500 rally from 666 in March 2009 to 1050 now is seen as a mirage; the side effect of a money printing magic trick performed by central bankers. Totally unsustainable. EURUSD opened the year at 1.4500 and now trades sub-1.25 so the short trade is hard to stomach. Even when you know it’s the right thing to do, it takes a lot of courage to sell something down >15%. So the trader has shifted his attention to USDJPY and he expects it to go substantially lower as global risk aversion remains elevated and safe haven currencies like the yen should find demand. USDJPY has been inexplicably well-bid given recent risk aversion and the Fed “money printing”. It just rallied from 90 to 94 on air over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the best leading indicator for USDJPY is always US bond yields and they have been plummeting for a month. USDJPY looks completely wrong. The trader stares at the following chart, which shows US 10-year bond yields and USDJPY. The black bars are USDJPY and the dotted line shows US bond yields. Note they usually follow in lockstep. The divergence is a strong signal to the trader that he should be short USDJPY. USDJPY vs. US 10-year rates November 2009 to May 5, 2010 The chart covers the period up to May 5. This story takes place May 6. Chart courtesy of Refinitiv. If you look in the top right corner, you can see that USDJPY is a bit off the highs, but not much. Two days in a row, the high has been 94.99 and USDJPY is now bouncing aimlessly around 93.80 as he rolls into the hedge fund parking lot. It is still early so there are only three Porsche 911s in the lot right now. More will arrive later. This USDJPY trade has been tiring and painful as the trader got short at 94.00 with a stop loss at 95.05 and those two daily highs mean he has come within a hair (6 pips, or 0.064%) of getting stopped out, two days in a row. Holding on to a trade like this is exhausting as his fight-or-flight stress system remains activated for long stretches. Cortisol overload. Now, he can relax a bit and let things play out. His target is 91.00. Average daily range has been about 1 yen (100 pips) lately so he figures we might get there in the next week or so. 10:45 AM It has been a boring morning with USDJPY in a tight range. The sun comes out and it’s almost shorts weather outside so the trader decides to go for a run before lunch. Less than a mile into his run, he gets his first indication that this is not a random, ordinary day. His Blackberry rings. Bank sales on the line to tell him that USDJPY has just dumped 100 points in 15 minutes. Trading 92.80 now… Odd. He turns around and sprints back to the office, Spidey-sense tingling. By the time he grabs a quick shower and returns to the desk, USDJPY is 91.50. He is short $100 million USDJPY so that puts his profit (aka P&L or profit and loss) around +$2.8 million on the day. That’s more P&L than this trader typically makes in an excellent month. A huge haul. He scans the headlines and Bloomberg chats and finds no good explanation for what is going on. The stock market is down, but not enough to explain the move in USDJPY. This makes no sense. When a trade shows a big profit that makes no sense, he likes to cover it and move on. The trader buys 100 million USDJPY at 91.50. He is back to flat with no position and nearly 3 bucks of P&L in the bank. He sits there calmly and processes what has happened. He allows himself to feel happy, just for a second. He stuck to his plan and had the patience to sit with a decent-sized position for three days. He relaxes and basks in the satisfaction of a job well done. Then… Some dumb voice in his brain says: 2.8 million dollars is an amazing day. But... Maybe I can make 5 million today? And his hands, as if possessed by some mischievous or evil force, move slowly toward the BUY and SELL buttons. For no reason. And like a moron… He goes long USDJPY. First, he buys $50 million at 91.50 and then another $50 million at 91.25. These are impulsive trades with no rationale. His planned stop loss is 90.85 but before he has time to input a stop loss order, he notices S&Ps lurch lower on a huge volume surge. He puts on his headset and fires up the S&P squawk to see what’s going on. [If you want to hear the soundtrack to what happens next, Google “Flash crash stock market 2010 squawk” and select one of the YouTube replay videos] The announcer’s voice is strained as he narrates an unexplained fall in stocks from 1150 to 1120. USDJPY skips through 91.00 and the trader’s P&L shrinks to $2.0 million. He tries to sell at 90.80 and whiffs. USDJPY is suddenly in freefall. 90.10 trades. 90.00 breaks. USDJPY has just dropped more than four percent in a few hours. A monster move. The trader’s eyes flick over to his P&L which has now shrunk back to six digits. Two-thirds of three days’ work, gone in 60 seconds. And then… Stocks sell off hard out of nowhere. Like… REALLY HARD. The S&P squawk guy is losing it. Screaming. 1100 breaks in the S&P. 1080, 1070, 1060. USDJPY is a waterfall. The squawk loses his mind as he yells: “We have some BIG paper sellers here… 7 evens are trading. 6 evens are trading! 5 EVENS ARE TRADING!!! New lows here…” USDJPY breaks 89.00 and the trader has still sold only 23 million USD, leaving him stuck with a position of 77 million USD. It is a fast market, nearly impossible to transact. He picks up a phone to two different banks and neither one answers. He tries to hit the 88.60 and gets a reject notice from the aggregator. The price feed is stale and crossed now; it shows 89.00 / 88.10, which is not possible. The trader is now down on the day. In the red. His face is hot and feels red like his P&L. Urge to slam fist on desk is rising. The trader feels like he is falling, falling::::::::::::::::::::in cinematic slow-mo. USDJPY stabilizes a bit even as the S&P squawk continues to go nuts. “65 even offered! 60 trades… 60 even bid, this is the widest we have seen in years,” his voice cracks, he’s yelling like the announcer at Churchill Downs as the horses turn for the stretch. “60s trading! 50s trading! 50 at 70 now! We are twenty wide!” 1060 trades in S&Ps now, down just about 10% today, on zero news. Nobody knows what the hell is going on and there is panic in the air. The squawk dude continues to scream. He is pouring gasoline on the trader’s agitation. The trader’s P&L is now six figures in the red. Sadness. Anger. He is furious with himself because he had the right trade, waited patiently for almost three days for it to work, caught the move perfectly according to plan … And then flipped the other way on a whim, for no reason and gave everything and more back in half an hour. $2.8 million is a good month for this trader. He just made and lost that much in less than two hours. I am an idiot. How did I get into this mess? He needs to make a decision here and quick but he realizes that he is flooded. It is impossible to make a good trading decision when you’re flooded. He needs a second to clear his mind. He tears off the headphones, drops them on his desk, and stands up. He walks over to the window and tries to find a moment of lucid calm. He has been through these emotional storms before and knows how to get back to shore. He stares over the waters of the Long Island Sound. Gradually, his heart rate lowers. Clarity slowly, slowwwwly returns. His lizard brain retreats and his rational mind takes over. He talks to himself: It doesn’t matter how you got here. What are you going to do about it? 88.00 was the low in March. It’s a massive level. The panic is fading. USDJPY is down 700 points in two days and now bonds are reversing lower. This is the place to buy USDJPY, not sell. He returns to his keyboard, puts his headphones back on. The squawk guy has stopped screaming. He is noticeably more composed. S&P futures have bottomed within a whisker of limit down. They are stable but have not rebounded significantly. The bid/offer is super wide so it’s hard to tell whether they are moving higher or just bouncing along the bottom. The trader looks around the room and sees the panic and electricity levels have dropped. Not as many phones are ringing. Voices in the room are no longer frantic. He buys 50 million USDJPY at 88.85. And another 73 million at 88.95. Max long now, long $200 million USDJPY. But this time it’s thought out, not random, and he feels good about what he is doing. He feels confident but fully in control. He calmly thinks forward: USDJPY could easily rally to 92.50 from here. When you catch a turn like this, you can be greedy. He leaves a stop loss for half his position (sell 100 million USDJPY at 87.94) and then sits back to let things play out. He has his plan and now he knows all he can do is watch and see if it works. There is one more frenetic whipsaw and USDJPY briefly prints to a low of 87.95. One pip from his 100 million USD stop loss. Amazing luck. Seconds later, stocks stabilize, and then it’s like everyone realizes all at once that whatever the heck just happened… It’s over. USDJPY is paid at 88.70, then up through 89.50. It breaks 90.00 and as it hits 90.40, the trader flicks his eyes to the P&L. It is almost exactly back to the level where it peaked earlier: $2.8 million. He praises the trading gods and squares up. NICE! Too bad he didn’t stick with his plan on the way back up, either. A few hours later, USDJPY hit the trader’s original target of 92.50. Here’s the chart of USDJPY that day: USDJPY May 3-7, 2010 (US stock market Flash Crash was May 6) The trader made a multitude of both good and bad decisions in the three hours around the 2010 Flash Crash. The trading described in this story is a microcosm of everything that can go right and wrong in trading. Traders make good, careful decisions and get rewarded, they make bad decisions and get punished … but then sometimes a good decision leads to a bad outcome … or a bad decision is rescued by good luck. Every trader is a steaming hot bowl of bias stew and must maintain self-awareness and lucidity behind the screens as the trading day oscillates between boredom and terror. That story of the 2010 Flash Crash, just like this book, is all about the razor thin line that separates success and failure in trading. Alpha Trader is written to help you understand markets but also, more importantly, to help you better understand yourself as a trader. It is about great decisions and dumb mistakes. It is about how to be rational and why smart people do stupid things. All the time. The book is written for traders at every skill level. I wrote it to be understood by noobs, but I also aimed to write something that will resonate with experienced trading professionals. Alpha Traders are smart, rational, disciplined, flexible, patient, and aggressive… They have the endurance to handle unending ups, downs, hills, and valleys. They come in fired up each day to solve the ultimate puzzle and they get paid incredibly well if they succeed. Alpha Traders work hard (even when they don’t feel like it), seek to continuously improve, and love markets more than they love money. Thank you for taking the time to read my book. I hope you find it entertaining and useful. I hope it helps you unlock your maximum trading potential. By the way, I plan to publish future updates, fresh trading stories and new lessons, tactics and strategies, exclusively for readers of Alpha Trader. If you are interested, please sign up at brentdonnelly.com. Enjoy. /Brent
Fed Accelerates Tapering, but Gold Shows Resilience

Fed Accelerates Tapering, but Gold Shows Resilience

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2021 15:33
The Fed begins to get up steam and has finally turned its hawkish mode on. Was it something the gold bulls wanted to hear?The Fed’s full capitulation and unconditional surrender of the doves! Yesterday (December 15, 2021), the FOMC issued) the newest statement on monetary policy in which it erased any description of inflation as “transitory.” It took them only half a year to figure it out, but better late than never. Additionally, the Fed practically rejected its new monetary framework called “Flexible Average Inflation Targeting”, which allowed inflation to run hot for some time. In November, we could read:The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.In the last statement, however, this mammoth paragraph was substantially altered.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment.What is missing is the reference to the Fed’s tolerance of inflation above its target. This means that the US central bank has turned the hawkish mode on. Indeed, in line with expectations, the Fed has accelerated the pace of tapering of its quantitative easing. The Committee announced a doubling of the monthly reduction in the purchased assets from $10 billion for Treasuries and $5 billion for MBS to, respectively, $20 and $10 billion. It means that the Fed will end its asset purchase program by March rather than by mid-year.In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities.Dot-Plot and GoldThese are not all December monetary fireworks we got, though. The statement was accompanied by fresh economic projections conducted by FOMC members. How do they look at the economy right now? As the table below shows, central bankers expect faster economic growth and a lower unemployment rate next year compared to the September projections. This is not something the gold bulls would like to hear.More importantly, however, FOMC participants see inflation as more persistent at the moment because they expect 2.6% PCE inflation at the end of 2022 instead of 2.2%. In other words: inflation is currently believed to reach this level only a year from now! Interestingly (at least for economic nerds like me), Committee members expect that core PCE inflation will be higher than the overall index in 2022, and will amount to 2.7%. It is an indication that the Fed considers inflation more broad-based now than just driven by rising energy prices.Last but definitely not least, more interest rate hikes are coming. According to the latest dot plot, FOMC members see three increases in the federal funds rate next year as appropriate. That’s a huge hawkish turn compared to September, when they perceived only one interest rate hike as desired. Central bankers expect another three hikes in 2023 (the same as in September) and additional two in 2024 (one less than in September). Hence, the whole forecasted path of the interest rates becomes steeper and the Fed is now anticipating eight 25-basis point rate hikes from 2022 to 2024, one more than they saw in September.Implications for GoldGiven the hawkish FOMC statement and economic projections, gold is doomed, right? Well, in theory, a more aggressive Fed’s tightening cycle should boost bond yields and strengthen the greenback, pushing gold prices down. However, what does gold say to the God of Bears? Not today!Indeed, the chart below shows that theory and practice are not the same. Initially, the price of gold declined from around $1,765 to around $1,755, but it quickly rebounded and even increased to $1,780.So, what happened and what does it imply for gold’s future? Well, gold didn’t panic, as hawkish statements and dot-plot were widely anticipated. They were probably a little more hawkish than expected, but, on the other hand, Powell’s press conference was deemed as more dovish than predicted. Since Powell’s earlier transparency and dovish heart rescued gold from falling down, gold bulls may breathe a sigh of relief.However, we believe that this wasn’t the Fed’s last word. Inflation is likely to increase further next year; so, the US central bank, which is terribly behind the curve, could be forced to tighten its monetary policy even more. Thus, although my worries about this FOMC meeting turned out to be unnecessary, they could materialize later.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Great Santa Rally

Great Santa Rally

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.12.2021 15:40
S&P 500 with pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.Yesterday‘s expectations panned out to the letter:(…) Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt.I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate).Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 reversal is to be trusted, and the advance was very solidly taken part in. With not too much willing sellers, the advance will likely moderate today, but still continue. The bull hasn‘t topped, has been my thesis for weeks.Credit MarketsHYG celebrations are ushering in the next risk-on phase – credit markets are confirming. The too hawkish Fed worry is in the rear view mirror, and many assets can run once again, the time is still right.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downside was indeed limited, and the solid upswing I called for, materialized. Now, let‘s wait for the reaction of this catalyst with more inflation, for the juiciest results...Crude OilCrude oil is once again readying the upswing – the conditions are in place for $72 to give in shortly. Similarly, oil stocks haven‘t peaked, and are merely consolidating.CopperKey vote of confidence is coming today from copper – the red metal would very willingly participate in a fresh commodities upswing. It‘s been ushered in already, actually.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum look to have found the bottom as well – what kind of corrective pullback would we get? I‘m not looking for one overly deep and testing yesterday‘s lows.SummaryBears have thrown in the towel, and rightfully so – another instance of the Fed crushing the puts. Being between a rock and a hard place, with midterms approaching, infrastructure bill birthing troubles, the central bank‘s room to act isn‘t really too large. FOMC has met market expectations, and still remained behind the curve on inflation. On top, I‘m looking for them to have to reverse course during 2022 – I‘ve argued the case macroeconomically in the opening part of today‘s report. Back to the inflation trades – long live real assets and the not yet having topped S&P 500 (don‘t look at me, Russell 2000)!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos ready for Christmas rally

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos ready for Christmas rally

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.12.2021 16:06
Bitcoin bulls consolidate above $48.760 and will be looking to test and break $50,020 to the upside. Ethereum has bulls banging on the door at $4,060, ready for a breakout towards $4,465. XRP sees buying volume picking up, as a return to $1.0 is in the making. Bitcoin price is seeing a lift in price action as supportive tailwinds emerge following a dovishly perceived US central bank decision, with investors buying cryptocurrencies across the board. Ethereum is seeing the same interest this morning, with buying volume picking up as the RSI nudges higher. Ripple is undergoing a tight squeeze against $0.84, with bulls pushing to break the downtrend and rally up to $1.0. Bitcoin price sees investors buying any offer insight as buying volume picks up Bitcoin (BTC) price is seeing a positive lift in sentiment as a backdraught emerges after a perceived dovish central bank decision from Jerome Powell and the US Federal Reserve. This morning, investors are taking a stake in risky assets with equities and cryptocurrencies on the front foot. With that, expect Bitcoin to rally on this sentiment throughout the trading day. BTC price will quickly face a critical hurdle at $50,020 with the psychological $50,000 level included and the S1 monthly support level. This trifecta will weigh on any possible upside potential. But as markets are rallying with risk-on across the board, expect this level to break sooner rather than later, with an intraday target towards $53,350. BTC/USD daily chart Investors should expect positive sentiment to be a major theme throughout the day. Two further major central banks are scheduled to announce their decisions today, however, the Bank of England and the ECB, and there is a risk these could cast a shadow on the current Christmas rally.. If one of these delivers a message that would break current sentiment, expect a quick nosedive correction in BTC back towards $44,088 or $43,030 in a quick rewind of the rally. Ethereum price sees bulls fighting bears at $4,060, ready for a landslide victory Ethereum (ETH) price made a perfect bounce off $3,687 on Wednesday, with investors pushing ETH price towards $4,060 around the monthly S1 support level and a pivotal historical chart level. As price opens again around the same level this morning, elevated buying from investors is putting bears under pressure to close their shorts, switch sides and join the buying camp. When this happens, expect a significant spike in buying volume with a quick break above $4,060 and a continuation towards the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,332. ETH price is just around $130 away from the monthly pivot level and a second technical element in the same area. Expect the rally to halt around that level as some short-term profit-taking will happen, and the price could fade a little back towards the 55-day SMA. Should current sentiment persist, with tailwinds in equities and cryptocurrencies, expect ETH price action to hit $4,646 by the end of the week, with new all-time highs in sight by next week. ETH/USD daily chart With the end of the year approaching rapidly, expect the volume to die down a bit, which could cause some sharp corrections as sellers will not always be there to match the profit-taking from investors. This could result in possible knee-jerk reactions with ETH price tanking in a matter of minutes. Expect with that, the $3,687 and $3,391 levels to be there as safeguards. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,000 to reignite ETH bull market XRP price sees investors coming in with breakout towards $1.05 Ripple (XRP) price sees investors returning as favorable tailwinds in cryptocurrencies are filtering through into XRP price action. Bulls opened the price this morning close to $0.84, and an initial resistance level is just above at $0.88. Expect a bit of a hesitant start because of this double belt of resistance. Once punched through, expect hesitant investors to pull the trigger and join the rally to move higher towards $0.95 at the 200-day SMA. XRP/USD daily chart Assuming a break above the 200-day SMA, expect a quick pop towards $1.05, but once hit, a quick fade will likely happen, with price action falling back towards $0.99. Should, however, these tailwinds start to fade as quickly as they come, expect a quick return to the downside with a push down on $0.78 and a break lower towards $0.62, with the blue descending trend line and the S2 at $0.58 as supporting factors. XRP price shows signs of incoming breakout
Intraday Market Analysis: USD Weakens Across The Board

Intraday Market Analysis: USD Weakens Across The Board

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.12.2021 08:56
EURUSD tests key supply zone The euro jumped after the ECB announced it will cut its bond-buying program. The pair’s latest retreat seems to have been an accumulation phase for the bulls. Strong buying interest lies in the demand zone around 1.1230. A break above 1.1320 has put buyers back in the control room. 1.1380 from a previously botched reversal attempt is a major hurdle ahead. Its breach may trigger an extended rally towards 1.1460. The RSI’s overextended situation has caused a brief pullback with 1.1270 as a key support. GBPUSD attempts bullish reversal Sterling surged after the Bank of England raised its interest rates to 0.25%. The pound has been treading water above 1.3170. The sellers’ struggle to push lower and the buyers’ attempts above 1.3260 suggest that the mood could be improving. A break above 1.3300 has prompted the bears to cover, attracting momentum traders in the process with 1.3440 as the next target. That said, an overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback as intraday traders take profit. 1.3260 has become the closest support. NZDUSD breaks resistance The New Zealand dollar rallied as risk sentiment made its return post-FOMC. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off momentum. The long candle wick from 0.6700 suggests solid buying interest. Then a break above 0.6800 has put the last sellers under pressure. An overbought RSI has limited the initial surge. A pullback may test 0.6755, previously a resistance that has turned into a support. 0.6860 near the 30-day moving average is the next hurdle, and its breach could trigger a bullish reversal.
Fading the Rally

Fading the Rally

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.12.2021 15:44
S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate. I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday: (…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course. Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board. The reason I quoted the above copper part, is the importance of its yesterday‘s move – not too hot, not too cold in pursuing the broader commodities. Keeping above $4.28 with ease today, would be an important signal that the bears aren‘t able to step in convincingly, including in stocks. Oil would sort itself out above $71 while gold and silver would extend their preceding gains today. All in all, stocks would join early next week, and apart from bonds not going more risk-off, Ethereum outperformance would be another confirmation of a broader risk-on upswing to happen. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 downside reversal isn‘t to be trusted on a medium-term basis – but the downswing hasn‘t run its course, looking at volume. Good Nasdaq showing is sorely missing. Credit Markets HYG retreat while the quality debt instruments stayed more or less flat, is concerning for today – and for Monday, should we get follow through in bonds later on. Given the volume comparison, it‘s not certain in the least, which would set up conditions for a broader rally early next week. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside is clearly over, and a fresh upswing well underway. Correction in equities is marginally helping, and the reaction of Fed‘s underwhelming move with more inflation news, would be the juiciest catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is building up the springboard once again – the current consolidation including in oil stocks, would be resolved to the upside next week. We haven‘t seen a genuine trend change in Nov. Copper Key vote of confidence has come from copper – more willing participation from the red metal is called for next (as a minimum, not losing momentum vs. CRB Index). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t kept Wednesday‘s gains, and could very well provide an early sign of buying appetite more broadly returning. Summary Bonds remain in wait and see mode, and aren‘t as bearishly positioned as stocks at the moment. Neither are precious metals or commodities, raising the odds of a bullish resolution to the S&P 500 rally that‘s been faded. The usual constellation is what‘s required – recovering bonds taking the pressure off tech, mainly. Ideally accompanied by solid HYG outperformance, value rising, copper extending gains, and Ethereum doing better than Bitcoin. Tall order, especially for today – but nothing unsurmountable for say Monday-Tuesday as argued for in detail in today‘s report. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
DXY remain in 96.00 – 97.00 ranges. Here are the pairs to look closely for the week ahead

DXY remain in 96.00 – 97.00 ranges. Here are the pairs to look closely for the week ahead

Surya Teja Surya Teja 20.12.2021 08:44
EURUSD re-tested 1.12 level. EURUSD was last traded at 1.12 level in 24th Nov 2021, before buyers quickly pushed the price back to above 1.13 within just 2 trading days, and since then the price remained consolidating between 1.1250 – 1.1350 for the past 15 trading days. In this weekly chart perspective the divergence is too obvious to ignore as RSI signaling oversold since EURUSD broke below 1.13 level in early November 2021. Despite the uncertainty from a macro-economic point of view, there are chances for 1.14 level to be the next bulls target, as long as sellers do not break below 1.12 level. AUDUSD re-tested 0.71 weekly engulf. Following the rise of Iron Ore in mid-November 2021, it has become a huge favor for the Aussie dollar to make a significant upside push just right after sellers reached 0.70 level, which then becomes the Q4 new low. Now buyers that has clear the 0.71 level which will expose 0.72 - 0.73 as the next bull target. However, this will be a tough job for buyers as both 100-200 weekly moving averages act as a strong resistance level, even though last week buyers managed to reach 0.72. After that the price quickly lowered toward weekly engulf neckline before the US session closed. Weekly engulf can be a good area to watch for buyers to look for upside continuation for the week ahead.
Creating silver wealth without fear

Creating silver wealth without fear

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.12.2021 09:32
Two weeks ago, we posted the following chart in our weekly silver chart book release, after representing a strong case for a bullish silver play: Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly chart from December 3rd, 2021: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We wrote at the time: “The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver. There is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September.” Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, creating silver wealth without fear: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2021. We were spot on anticipating how the market would unfold in the future. Furthermore, we followed the principles of consistent analysis of our surroundings, the market, and ourselves. We advanced confidently in the direction of likely probabilities and tried to keep doubt to a minimum. Hourly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, well positioned: Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of December 18th, 2021. This sequence allowed for a low-risk entry on December 15th, 2021 right at the lows. The entry-level of US$21.47 already allowed for a 2.75% partial profit-taking on half of our position size at US$22.06. As always, we use our low-risk quad exit strategy to reduce risk and, as such, fear of losing profits. Now we are well-positioned with the remainder of the position, and a stop raised to break even entry levels. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, worth the effort: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 18th, 2021. The monthly chart above shows our planned following two targets for this trade. With an entry at US$21.47 and an initial tight stop at US$21.22, our risk/reward-ratio towards our first profit-taking target was about 1:2.37. Now for the next target at US$27.35, it is 1:23, and for the final target at US$47.20, it is 1:103. In other words, with extensive planning and stacking of odds, we were able to identify a trade that had about a percent of risk at entry time. In addition, we quickly mitigated risk by early partial profit-taking. And yet, we still have a profit potential of the final 25% of position size, possibly maturing to a 120% profit. Taking only highly likely and highly profitable trades like these is also confidence-building and a fear eliminator. Creating silver wealth without fear: Michael Jordan’s achievement of playing in the present moment only is nothing short of the accomplishment of monks and so-called enlightened beings. It takes a long stretch of a career to achieve such a skill set. It illustrates that trading is more than just pushing a button or extracting a mathematical edge system. Trading is psychology and requires many skill sets combined to produce the necessary consistency to overcome the dilemma that you are only as good as your last action. Luck alone will get you nowhere in this game. It is not our intention to discourage you. Instead, it is quite the opposite. Often trading can be overwhelming and at times one can be down thinking: „Why can’t I do this, why did I betray my own rules again?” Trading is hard, it takes screen time and skill. Do not let fear and doubt dictate your actions. You can do this! Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 19th, 2021|Tags: bottoming pattern, Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, The bottom is in, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
SEC Rejects Valkyrie, Kryptoin Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications

The crypto market is melting before our eyes

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.12.2021 08:53
The crypto market's capitalisation has fallen 2.8% in the last 24 hours to $2.166 trillion. Methodical pressure on the significant coins persists along with wary trading in traditional equity markets. The bitcoin price has been losing 2.5% in the last 24 hours and is 5.6% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Ether is down 3.4% and 4%, respectively. Some other top coins are also under severe pressure, but we cannot say that the dynamics are unambiguous. For example, XRP is up 5.5%, AVAX is up 22%, and Luna is up 30.7% in the last seven days. At the beginning of the year, institutional and investment bank interest provided cryptocurrencies with overperformance but now lowered demand for safety is becoming their Achilles' heel. The most methodical, albeit relatively measured, pressure has been seen in Bitcoin and Ether, which have been under bearish control for the past month and a half. According to equity and commodity market definitions, BTCUSD and ETHUSD have crossed the bear market threshold, having lost more than 20% of their peaks in early November. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is not gaining meaningful support on the decline towards the 200-day average. These are all signs that the bear market is entering its rights, as enthusiasts can no longer buy out any drawdowns. Generally speaking, a modest downside amplitude is not typical of cryptocurrencies, so short-term traders should be prepared for an explosion of volatility on a decline below meaningful levels. We assume that crucial support is concentrated near $40K for Bitcoin, a resistance level in January and a support level in October. Falling below this level could dramatically increase the coin's volatility and affect the entire market. For Ether, relatively measured volatility could continue up to the level of the 200-day moving average (just above 3300), which coincides with the area of extended consolidation in August and September and the start of the latest rally in October. Suppose Ether and Bitcoin fail to find strong buying below these levels as well. In that case, we risk seeing a true capitulation of the entire cryptocurrency market and a revision of the outlook to a more bearish one.
Gold and Silver Takeoffff... uh, No..

Gold and Silver Takeoffff... uh, No..

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 20.12.2021 08:40
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 631st Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 18 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com 'Twas a week of hope for the precious metals, Gold therein rising low-to-high from 1753 to 1816 (+3.6%) and Silver per same from 21.41 to 22.69 (+6.0%). But given Gold is never really supposed to stray too far from the 1780s, let alone Silver be allowed to do anything material but decline, both precious metals eked out immaterial weekly gains. Gold settled yesterday (Friday) at 1799, +0.9% net for the week, and Silver at 22.36, +0.7% net. Indeed a net snoozer of a week: â–  Even as the Swiss Franc saw its linear regression trend (21-day basis) rotate further to positive... â–  Even as the Bond's price moved to a two-week high... â–  Even as the S&P's MoneyFlow for the week values the Index 120 points lower than 'tis... â–  Even (more broadly) as the U.S. money supply since March 2020 has averaged an increase of $1 trillion every 93 trading days... â–  Even as the Federal Reserve again alerted the world that 'tis preparing to raise rates; (they can't be outdone by the Bank of England having just so done, even as the European Central Bank remains hand-wringing): we're actually thinking the Fed terminates the tapering and pulls the trigger in its 26 January Policy Statement... "Sorry folks, but we had to do it, else your stick of butter is gonna cost ten bucks." BOOM! And with respect to the latter, as you regular readers well know, the increasing of FedFunds rates was very precious metals-positive during 2004-to-2006 and on balance Gold-positive from 2015-to-2018. Yes even as we've all these historically very Gold-positive events in play, 'tis low that the precious metals continue to lay. "Well mmb, the dollar refuses to die..." Duly noted there, Squire. As we've been saying, market dislocations are the "in thing" these days. Fundamentals have been flushed down the loo, but at least we've quantitative and technical analysis to see us through. For again we quip -- even as goofball-wacko as market correlations have become -- prices are never wrong, their ebbing and flowing still in play, which for the trader we hope leads the correct way: "Don't dare think, else you'll sink!" (That of course courtesy of "The Trend is Your Friend Dept."). Either way, these are extraordinarily challenging trading days! Did you know that the EDTR ("expected daily trading range") of the S&P 500 right now is 67 points? The average annual trading range of the S&P from 1993-1995 was 47 points per year with an average annual percentage tracing of 11%: this year the S&P is tracing a range that averages better than 5% per month! Again analogous to a snake in its death throes. And yet the precious metals remain a disappointment, (save to "The M Word" crowd). Recall "Gold Forecast High Goes Bye-Bye" penned back on 02 October per nixing our 2401 price forecast high for this year: "...The more likely scenario shall well be Gold just sloshing around into year-end, trading during Q4 between 1668-1849..." We'd hoped to have been wrong about that, but with just two weeks to run in 2021, 'tis exactly what's happened. Indeed you can see it "happening" (or better stated "not happening") here across Gold's weekly bars from a year ago-to-date. A snoozer indeed, be it this past week or past year, the current parabolic Long trend (blue dots) completely bereft of price actually rising: And as an added holiday treat (hardly), here is our like (rarely posted) graphic for Silver, unable to maintain her short-lived parabolic Long trend, indeed now Short (red dots). Rather, a truly tarnished treat, one has to say, her appearing none too festive: But as crooned Neil Young back in '70 "Don't let it bring you down..."as we've a ray of technical hope for Gold into year-end; ('course, fundamental hope for Gold springs eternal). This next chart displays Gold by the day from mid-year-to-date. In the graphic's lower panel is a favoured technical study of the trading community, the mouthful MACD ("moving average convergence divergence"). Of interest is the MACD having just confirmed a crossing to positive. And whilst hindsight isn't future-perfect, it is a useful predictor in forming a reasonable near-term target for Gold, as follows. This is Gold's 13th positive MACD crossover since 26 March 2020. The "average maximum" price follow-through of the prior 12 positive crossovers is +87 points within an average signal duration of 27 trading days, (essentially within five weeks). Thus from the confirmation price of 1799, an average 87-point rise would put Gold at 1886; (more conservatively, the "median maximum" price follow-through across those 12 prior occurrences is +57 points, which if met on this run would find Gold at 1856). So with no formidably recent structural overhead resistance -- plus Gold's penchant to have put in positive Decembers in four of the past five years -- a run up to test the denoted 16 November high of 1880 makes some sense, prudent cash management, as always, taking precedence: 'Course, the biggest "positive" (if you will) of the week was the aforementioned Old Lady of Threadneedle Street raising her benchmark interest rate by 150% from 0.10% to 0.25%. (Dare the 1st Earl of Halifax -- one Charles Montagu, who in 1694 devised establishing William Paterson's 1691 proposal for creating the BOE -- flip his wig). Meanwhile across the channel, the ECB looks to curtail its "emergency" asset purchases, but nonetheless is assessing other stimulus measures. No rate hike there. Certainly neither in China as economic consumption and the property market continue to weaken. "Got Dollars?" For indeed as you already well know lest you've been in a hole, the StateSide FedFolks look to bring their Bank's Funds rate up into the 0.75%-to-1.00% target range by the end of next year. And as noted, we think they'll initially move on 26 January, barring an excessive bout of "Oh my! Omicron!" Oh, and from the "Oh By The Way Dept." President "Jumpin' Joe" Biden just signed the $2.5 Trillion Dollar Debasement Declaration so that TreaSec Janet "Old Yeller" Yellen can keep paying the nation's debt obligations and bills through most of next year. For some perspective: the U.S. money supply from 02 January 1998 to 09 September 2005 grew by $2.5 trillion, (a pace of $1 trillion per 802 trading days) during which time the price of Gold increased by 55%. Today (as previously noted), the money supply is increasing at a an average rate of $1 trillion per just 93 trading days, but terrifically under-owned Gold basically "ain't done squat" (technical term). Just in case yer scorin' at home. Speaking of scoring, the Economic Barometer's strength through November has run out of puff thus far in December as we see here: Notable Baro improvements from last week's set of 15 incoming metrics include November's Capacity Utilization and Building Permits amongst other higher housing measures; but the month's growth in Industrial Production slowed significantly, as did Retail Sales. And whilst December's New York State Empire Index marginally gained ground, the Philly Fed Index more than halved what November's had found. And oh yes, there was also wholesale inflation for November, the Producer Price Index recording an annualized pace of +9.6%: which makes the old riddle about "How many zeros can fit on a Zimbabwean banknote?" not as funny as once 'twas. But 'tis not to worry, the FOMC having just stated that "...Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation..." As to how many rising Baby Blue dots does a consistent trend make, let's turn to our two-panel graphic for Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right. The respective rightmost up turns from the -80% axes are generally harbingers of higher prices, (and to wit the MACD study for Gold earlier shown). But Friday's rejective price action does initially breed some cause for concern: "The M Word" crowd? The quadruple-witch? Both? We display, you assay: Next we've the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). To be sure, by this view Gold's infinite 1780s appear supportive, whereas poor ole Sister Silver's array is a congested display: Let's close with three mentions of inflation: â–  Dow Jones Newswires "reported" this past week that a factor in determining the duration of inflation is how we feel about it, which in turn shall guide the Fed's interest rate decisions; (folks are well-paid to write this stuff). Here's what we feel: be it cost-push or demand-pull or both, when the money supply increases 33% in less than two years, 'tis game over; â–  From the same creative bunch also came the notion that because increasing inflation effectively makes for negative real rates of interest, the FOMC by not (yet) voting to raise rates is therefore actually stimulating the economy. Yeah, we get that, but such rationale may be the biggest infatuative policy-wonk hot-air crush ever; â–  Speaking of which, here's an inflation-induced blast: we read that the rather wealthy Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives is not supportive of a proposed ban on Congressional members from owning individual equities, her stating that "We’re a free-market economy": how's that for a 180° turn? (Maggie Thatcher, you don't know what you're missing). But don't you miss out in getting some Gold and Silver on the cheap before inevitably they leap. True, they had a rather feeble takeoff attempt this past week. But once they really get airborne, that'll be our kind of inflation, right there! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC to provide the biggest buying opportunity before $100,000

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC to provide the biggest buying opportunity before $100,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.12.2021 14:41
Bitcoin price is in a massive accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more. The bull run is likely to begin after a deep correction to MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860. On-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders are booking profit, adding a tailwind to the bearish thesis. Bitcoin price has been hanging around the $50,000 psychological level for quite some time. A breakdown of one crucial support barrier is likely to trigger a steep crash for BTC. On-chain metrics are also suggesting that long-term holders are booking profits, anticipating a nosedive. Bitcoin price and MicroStrategy’s accumulation Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $51,782 and the 50-week SMA at $44,730 for roughly two weeks. Although BTC pierced through the 50-week SMA on December 4 crash, it recovered quickly. As the sell-off continues, the big crypto is slowly slithering its way to retest the vital support level. A weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will indicate a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish. This development would also signal that Bitcoin price is due to collect liquidity resting below the $40,596 support level. While this liquidity run might knock BTC below $40,000, it is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to consolidate here before heading to $30,000 or the liquidity resting below it. Interestingly this downswing is necessary to trigger the stop-losses resting below a critical $29,860 level, which is the average buy-in price of MicroStrategy. To date, the business intelligence software company has purchased 122,477 BTC, which is 0.53% of the total BTC in existence. The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which indicates a profit of roughly 56%. It is fair to assume that many whales or long-term holders that are betting on BTC have an average price at roughly the same level as MicroStrategy or a bit lower. Therefore, a dip below the average price of MicroStrategy at $29,860 will indicate a ‘max pain’ scenario and is likely to be where many investors may panic and sell to prevent losses. Market makers are likely to drive Bitcoin price to retest this barrier, therefore, or just below it. While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market makers’ perspective due to the supply resting below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move would represent a 36% crash from the current position. Although unlikely, a worst-case scenario would be for BTC to fall by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935. BTC/USD 1-week chart IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reflects the levels mentioned above. This on-chain index shows that the immediate cluster of investors that are “In the Money,” extends from $28,350 to $46,636. Roughly 5.23 million addresses purchased 3.13 million BTC at an average price of $38,283. Therefore, a weekly close below this level will cause panic selling among investors that could drag the big crypto down to sub-$30,000 levels. Moreover, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face massive headwinds as a massive cluster of underwater investors are present from $55,302 to $67,413. In this range, roughly 6.65 million addresses that purchased 3.37 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Only a massive spike in buying pressure will be able to overcome the selling pressure from investors in this cluster trying to break even. Hence, the logical conclusion is that the outlook for BTC favors the bears. BTC GIOM The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that the long-term holders are booking profits. Willy Woo, a popular analyst stated, long term holders have been selling down and taking profits, but as a cohort they continue to be in a region of peak accumulation. Bear markets coincide when these holders have divested of their coins, despite the fear in the market, structurally we are not setup for a bear market. BTC supply shock chart Further supporting a sell-off is the 0.83% decline in the number of whales holding between 100 to 100,000 BTC. Roughly 136 whales have offloaded their positions as seen in the supply shock chart above. BTC whale distribution chart The only chart that shows hope and presents the possibility of a short-term bullish outlook is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, hovering around -1.8%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. A negative value represents that short-term holders are selling and is often referred to as the “opportunity zone.” This is where mid-to-long-term holders accumulate. So, there is a chance that BTC might see a potential buying spree that pushes it to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,776 or reach for the $57,845 resistance barrier, in a highly bullish case. BTC 365-day MVRV While the scenario outlined above is undoubtedly bearish for short-term holders, it will provide long-term investors with a perfect buying opportunity. A retest of MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860 will be where investors can expect a reversal of the downswing. The resulting uptrend will likely propel Bitcoin price to a new all-time high at $100,000. However, if Bitcoin price decides to skip the crash and produces a weekly close above the current all-time high at $69,000, then it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, investors can expect BTC to head to other psychological barriers like $70,000 or $80,000.
Hong Kong Siblings Arrested Over $50 Million Crypto Money Laundering Scheme

Alibaba Stock News and Forecast: Why BABA stock keeps falling

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.12.2021 14:41
BABA shares have fallen sharply on fears over delisting. Alibaba stock is now down at 5-year lows. $100 is the next major support as $110 is held for now. Alibaba (BABA) continues to suffer from repeated selling pressure as the original Chinese tech stock suffers backlash effects. Alibaba can be said to have set off the whole Chinese regulatory crackdown. Alibaba was due to spin off its payment subsidiary ANT Group about 14 months ago. The deal fell through, however, after Alibaba CEO Jack Ma appeared to question the Chinese hierarchy. This was the catalyst for a reexamination by China of its burgeoning tech space. Most notably, intense regulatory scrutiny focused on the huge amounts of data generated and stored by Chinese tech names. China saw this as a matter of concern over national security. DIDI was next in the crosshairs. It had IPO'd successfully in New York in early 2021. The stock had listed in New York in apparent defiance of Chinese officials. Once China set its sights on DIDI, panic soon ensued among Chinese tech investors, and BABA and others suffered contagion effects. The trend has been powerful with momentum completely vanishing. BABA shares are down 25% in the last three months, taking total losses for 2021 to 48%. Alibaba (BABA) chart, daily Alibaba (BABA) stock news Alibaba was once known as the Chinese Amazon, and for good reason. The company is still highly profitable. Revenues have grown from $158 billion in 2017 to $717 billion in 2021. This represents a growth rate of nearly 50% from 2020. Despite this, the share price is down a similar amount as mentioned. Gross profit grew 30% to March 2021. Revenue continued to grow as the Chinese tech bubble burst. Revenue is forecast to remain strong, growing by 22% in 2022 and 17% for 2023 and 2024. Revenue will, if those targets are met, have grown to $1.2 trillion by 2024. This represents a near doubling from current levels. Alibaba was hit with a heavy fine by the Chinese authorities after the ANT Group debacle. Investors had hoped the matter was finally settled, but the power of investor fear resurfaced once China restarted its scrutiny of US-listed names, this time with DIDI being the poster child. This fear is likely to remain elevated as Chinese and US tensions are unlikely to subside anytime soon. China is also not likely done with its crackdown and delisting plans for some of its tech names. This presents opportunities and challenges. BABA may be overvalued fundamentally with strong revenue growth, but momentum and fear are powerful factors. More important is uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty, and that is currently the main headwind for Alibaba and other Chinese tech names. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Breaking support at $130 has led to an obvious fascination with $100. Before that, there is a last chance saloon support at $110. This is the September 2016 high. The daily chart has registered an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also crossed into bullish territory. A close above the 9-day moving average is needed to get short-term traders interested. Long-term players will need to see a move above $170. The short-term trend is bearish until the 9-day moving average is broken. The stock remains bullish in the short term on a break of $130 in our view. This is high risk, so please use stops. BABA 1-day chart
Not Only Gold Lacks Energy – We All Do Now

Not Only Gold Lacks Energy – We All Do Now

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.12.2021 15:19
  First a pandemic, then inflation, and now an energy crisis. Should you buy gold when preparing for the winter? Brace yourselves, winter is coming! And this time I’m deadly serious, as there is a global energy crisis. Not only does gold lack energy to fuel its rally right now, but people from all over the world lack it to fuel their operations and to heat their houses. Apparently, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t enough, so we also have to deal with inflation, supply bottlenecks, and the energy crisis. I guess there is nothing else to do now but wait for the frogs to start falling from the sky. But let’s not give the gods ideas and focus on the energy crisis today. What is it about? A picture is worth a thousand words, so please take a look at the chart below, which presents the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe’s leading benchmark for natural gas prices. As you can see, future prices for European natural gas have skyrocketed to a record level in October 2021, surging several times from their low in May 2020. The persistence and global dimension of these price spikes are unprecedented, as natural gas prices have also surged in Asia and America (although to a lesser degree). What caused such a spike? Well, as a trained economist, I cannot resist answering that it’s a matter of demand and supply! Yeah, thank you, Captain Obvious, but could you be a little more specific? Sure, so on the demand side, we have to mention a fast recovery from the epidemic and cold fall that increased the use of energy. Oh, and don’t forget about the ultra-low interest rates and the increase in the money supply that boosted spending on practically everything. The increased demand for energy is hardly surprising in such conditions. On the supply side, there were unpredictable breakdowns of gas infrastructure in Russia and Norway that decreased deliveries. The former country reduced its exports due to political reasons. What’s more, the reduction in the supply of CO2 emission rights and unfavorable weather didn’t help. The windless conditions in Europe generated little wind energy, while drought in Brazil reduced hydropower energy. More fundamentally, the decline in energy prices in response to the economic crisis of 2020 prompted many producers to stop drilling and later supply simply didn’t catch up with surging demand. You can also add here the political decisions to move away from nuclear and carbon energy in some countries. Last but not least, the butterfly’s wings flapped in China. Coal production in that country plunged this year amid a campaign against corruption and floods that deluged some mines. Middle Kingdom therefore began to buy significant amounts of natural gas, sharply increasing its prices. China’s ban on importing coal from Australia, of course, didn’t help here. Great, but what does the energy crisis imply for the global economy and the gold market? First, shortages of energy could be a drag on global GDP. The slowdown in economic growth should be positive for gold, as it would bring us closer to stagflation. Second, the energy crisis could cause discontent among citizens and strengthen the populists. People are already fed up with pandemics and high inflation, and now they have to pay much higher energy bills. Just imagine how they will cheer when blackouts occur. Third, the surge in natural gas prices could support high producer and consumer inflation. We are already observing some ripple effects in the coal and oil markets that could also translate into elevated CPI numbers. Another inflationary factor is power shortages in China, as they will add to the supply disruptions we are currently facing. All this implies more persistent high inflation, which should provide support for the yellow metal as an inflation hedge, although it also increases the odds of a more hawkish Fed, which is rather negative for gold. It’s true that a replay of the 1970s-like energy crisis is remote, as today’s economies are much less energy-consuming and dependent on fossil fuels. However, the worst is possibly yet to come. After all, winter hasn’t arrived yet – and it could be another harsh one, especially given that La Niña is expected to be present for the second year in a row. Meanwhile, gas stocks are unusually low. You can connect the dots. So far, gold has rather ignored the unfolding energy crisis, but we’ve already seen that market narratives can change quickly. It’s therefore possible that prolonged supply disruption and high inflation could change investors’ attitude toward the yellow metal at some point. The weak gold’s reaction stems from the limited energy crisis in the US and from the focus on the Fed’s tightening cycle. But investors’ attention can shift, especially when the Fed starts hiking federal funds rate. Brace yourselves! Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Dollar‘s Warning Signal

Dollar‘s Warning Signal

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.12.2021 15:57
S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... Still, equities are poised to extend gains in 2022, and I‘m looking for a volatile but positive year. 5,200 in Dec 2022 isn‘t out of the question – with large cap tech, financials and energy doing particularly fine. Real rates would remain negative, and precious metals would love the Fed slamming on the tightening breaks, and bringing back the punch bowl somewhat. If you look at the flattening yield curve, it‘s clear evidence of market fears (I call that certainty as that‘s what they excel at – the 1995 soft landing was a notable exception) of the Fed overdoing the tapering & rate hikes. Given all the inflation still ahead, and the expected fiscal-monetary policies working against each other (yes, more handouts), commodities would have another great year. So much for the big picture 2022 predictions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 on the defensive, but the bullish case isn‘t lost. Some sideways trading of today‘s volatility is likely to preceed the upswing – we aren‘t rolling over to a 5-10% correction now. Credit Markets HYG retreat could have been a lot worse, and it‘s a good sign bonds aren‘t panicking. Just the junk ones would need to outperform the quality ones to drive a good stock market day. For now, bonds remains on guard. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals decided to make a measured upswing – this isn‘t a real reversal. Pressure to go higher is building up, and rates rising a little before the Fed moves, won‘t cut it. When liquidity conditions and corona fears ease a little, look for a much steeper upswing. Crude Oil Crude oil is trapped in the omicron uncertainty – quite resilient, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. Waiting for some fears to be removed before the fundamentals sink in again. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum – it certainly isn‘t disappointing. The low volume hints at little willingness to sell – an attempt to spike shouldn‘t be surprising next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness today is there, mirroring commodities – but the decline isn‘t in the disastrous category. Wait and see with a whiff of preliminary caution – that‘s all. Summary S&P 500 and oil are feeling the omicron response pinch – the worries boosted by Netherlands lockdown Sunday. Corona remains the wildcard, and markets are ignoring its relatively mild symptoms while focusing on case count. Tech is likely to do better than most of value while yields aren‘t pressured to rise fast. For a moment, inflation is receding from the spotlight, but I‘m looking for it to come back. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto market in shambles as BTC consolidates

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto market in shambles as BTC consolidates

FXStreet News FXStreet News 20.12.2021 16:10
Bitcoin price slides lower, hinting at a retest of the 50 weekly SMA at $44,778. Ethereum price prepares for a 16% breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Ripple price could see an 11% ascent to $0.96 as it prepares for a second leg-up. Bitcoin price is moving sideways, trapped between crucial weekly moving averages. This consolidation has had a positive knock-on effect on Ethereum price which is setting up a bullish pattern ready for a breakout. Ripple, on the other hand, has already embarked on a climb and is preparing for its second leg-up. Bitcoin price anticipates short-term losses Bitcoin price is in a slow downtrend and looking to retest the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $44,778. While this development will see BTC shed roughly 3%, it could result in a bounce, triggering a bullish outlook. A successful bounce off the said SMA will open the path to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,256 and, in a highly bullish case, the $53,709 resistance level. If the bid orders continue to pour in, the pioneer crypto is likely to continue its ascent and tag the $57,845 barrier. Regardless, investors need to note that this bullish outlook is contingent on a successful bounce off the 50-week SMA at $44,778. BTC/USD 1-day chart If Bitcoin price slices through the SMA at $44,778, there is a good chance it will continue its descent to $40,596 to collect the liquidity resting below it. A daily close below $44,778 will invalidate the bullish thesis detailed above. Ethereum price eyes higher highs Ethereum price has been outlining a falling wedge pattern since November 28. This technical formation is obtained by connecting the three lower lows and four lower highs formed during this period using trend lines. The setup forecasts a 16% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $3,912, which puts ETH at $4,533. Assuming Ethereum price can bounce off the 70.5% retracement level at $3,780, this run-up would constitute a 20% ascent. Therefore, investors need to keep a close eye on the reversal of the retracement. ETH/USD 4-hour chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price shatters the $3,780 and $3,740 barriers, it is likely to head lower to retest the range low at $3,669. A four-hour candlestick close below this level will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,200 as support to resume bull run Ripple price vies to keep going higher Ripple price consolidated around the $0.837 resistance barrier for more than a week. The increased buying pressure resulted in an 11% spike in XRP price, pushing it to set up a potential swing high at $0.917. While the initial surge was noticeable, investors can expect XRP price to retrace before triggering another rally. The 0.837 support level will likely be tagged again soon. Assuming this occurs, market participants can expect Ripple price to climb 12% to retest the $0.936 hurdle. In some cases, XRP price might extend this advance to collect the liquidity resting above $0.980 or $1.018 hurdles. XRP/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Ripple price, a breakdown of the $0.837 support level will indicate weakness among buyers. In this case, XRP price will probably dip below the $0.749 demand barrier to collect the liquidity resting there. A daily close below this level will indicate buyers are unwilling to push the price higher and invalidate the bullish thesis for the remittance token. XRP price looks primed for a break out to $1.75
Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Struggles To Bounce - 21.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.12.2021 07:56
AUDUSD sees limited rebound The Australian dollar softens over dovish RBA meeting minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the 30-day moving average (0.7220). On the hourly chart, a bearish MA cross and a break below 0.7100 indicate weakness in the latest rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a brief rally, but the bears may sell into strength around 0.7160. 0.7050 at the base of the initial breakout is an important support. A lack of bids could send the Aussie to 0.6990 with the reversal attempt at stake. XAGUSD to test demand area Silver drops as the US dollar inched higher across the board. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. Then the recent surge has broken above multiple levels of resistance, prompting the short side to cover some of their bets. However, the bulls may need to defend their gains after the initial push overextended. The demand zone between last September’s low (21.40) and 21.80 is critical in keeping the rebound valid. 22.65 is now a fresh resistance before a full-blown recovery could materialize. US 30 struggles for support The Dow Jones retreated as major countries imposed curfews ahead of the holiday season. Following a double top under 36200, a drop below 35450 has broken buyers’ attempt to resume the rally. The index is struggling to hold above the base of the December recovery (34800) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 34000. Buyers will need to lift 35620 before they could attract followers’ attention. 34000 is the daily support to safeguard the bullish bias in the medium-term.
Santa rally begins

Santa rally begins

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.12.2021 12:34
Most stock indices seem to have managed to get that much-needed support from buyers yesterday, which opens the possibility of a Santa rally in the coming days. Earlier this year, some commentators, including us, have repeatedly pointed out that this year, the bottom of the month is very often near the 20th. Often there are expirations of monthly and quarterly futures and options around that date. And around the last ten days of the month, we regularly see capital inflows into the markets. We saw exceptions in January and November, but then the S&P500 index was near all-time highs, and there was profit-taking in the last few days of the month. September was also an exception, when the bounce in the indices lasted only two days, finding support only with the start of the new month. The current momentum looks like this year’s typical case: Indices were well away from the highs by Monday, and we saw buyers interest at the end of the day yesterday. The positive sentiment also extended into the Asian session and the start of the European session. Although the European indexes lost much of their early day gains and traded near opening levels, they are still clinging to growth territory. In addition, Bitcoin and Ether, meaningful indicators of risk demand, are up 4%, indicating that bullish sentiment prevails in the markets. A moderately weaker dollar also helps, showing year-end risk traction. These sentiments may well persist until the end of the year. 2021 was not a quiet or particularly delightful year for US equity markets, but they managed to add around 20% on the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices, putting it in the top 10 best years since the turn of the twentieth century. History suggests that a strong year comes with a strong ending. Beyond that, it is worth looking at the performance of the various sectors in these final days of the year. In the last two weeks, the list of leaders and outsiders can shed light on the year’s trends ahead.
Powell Sent Gold Above $1,800 – But Only for a Short While

Powell Sent Gold Above $1,800 – But Only for a Short While

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 21.12.2021 13:34
Finally, Powell admitted higher inflation risks and gold jumped above $1,800. Before anyone noticed, however, it plummeted below the key level again. Who are you, Mr. Powell: a reptilian or a human? A dove or a hawk? Since we all know the answer to the first question, let’s focus on the second one. Markets decided that Powell’s last press conference was rather dovish, but a careful reading doesn’t support this view. The main dovish signal was Powell’s emphasis that quantitative easing tapering and interest rate hikes are separate issues, as the tightening cycle criteria are stricter. So, the first rate hike may not come immediately after the end of tapering, which is scheduled for mid-March. Even if they are separate, we shouldn’t expect a long break between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike. This gap will definitely be shorter than in 2014-2015. In the last tightening cycle, the Fed ended asset purchases in October 2014, while the first increase in the federal funds rate occurred in December 2015. Powell himself, however, pointed out that the economy is much stronger, while inflation is much higher, so a long separation before interest rate hikes is not likely: I don't foresee that there would be that kind of very extended wait at this time. The economy is so much stronger. I was here at the Fed when we lifted it off last time and the economy is so much stronger now, so much closer to full employment. Inflation is running well above target and growth as well above potential. There wouldn't be the need for that kind of long delay (…) The last cycle that was quite a long separation before interest rates, I don't think that's at all likely in this cycle. We're in a very, very different place with high inflation, strong growth, a really strong economy (…) So this is a strong economy, one in which it's appropriate for interest rate hikes. In fact, this delay may be very short. On Friday, Fed Governor Chris Waller said that the interest rate increase will likely be warranted “shortly after” the end of asset purchases, possibly even at the FOMC meeting in March 2022. Another hawkish message sent by Powell was his acknowledgment of stronger inflation risks, i.e., that inflation may turn out to be more lasting than expected now: There’s a real risk now, we believe, I believe, that inflation may be more persistent and that may be putting inflation expectations under pressure. And that the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased, it’s certainly increased. I don’t think it’s high at this moment, but I think it’s increased. And I think that’s part of the reason behind our move today, is to put ourselves in a position to be able to deal with that risk. Thus, the Fed has become more concerned about high inflation and has timidly started reacting to it. The acceleration in the pace of tapering was, except for the more hawkish rhetoric, the first step – but not the last one.   Implications for Gold The yellow metal responded surprisingly well to the last FOMC meeting, at which the Fed announced a more aggressive pace of tapering and rate hikes next year. As the chart below shows, gold rose almost $40, or more than 2%, from Wednesday to Friday last week, jumping again above the key level of $1,800. Perhaps investors expected even more forceful actions. After all, despite all the hawkish reaction, the Fed remains behind the curve and shows no hurry to become really proactive. Such a passive attitude is really risky, as history teaches us that high inflation doesn’t just go away on its own, but its stabilization requires a decisive tightening of monetary policy. The longer the Fed waits, the more severe reaction would be needed, which increases the odds of putting the economy into recession. All this seems bullish for gold prices. However, gold was unable to retain its position above $1,800 and declined on Monday (December 20, 2021), so gold bulls can only hope that the yellow metal will the find strength to rally next year. It’s possible if inflation wreaks more havoc in 2022, but a hawkish Fed’s rhetoric remains an important headwind for the gold market. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Santa Rally Time

Santa Rally Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.12.2021 16:05
S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook: (…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... For now, the year end squaring the books trading can go on, and positive Santa Claus seasonality can make itself heard still. The crypto turn that I had been looking for on the weekend, is happening with strength today. Likewise the oil and copper recovery spilling over into silver, and the reasonably good performance returning to many value stocks too. Very constructive action. In short, the bulls have a good rebound opportunity into Christmas. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is waking up, and odds are the move would bring it back above the 50-day moving average. Looking at the volume, it‘s as if fresh sellers were nowhere to be found. Credit Markets HYG made an attempt to come back, and comparing it to the quality end of the bond spectrum results in a good impression – one of risk-on return approaching. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswing isn‘t to be taken too seriously – odds are strong that gold and silver would ride the risk-on return with gains added. It‘s about liquidity not being withdrawn by the market players. Crude Oil Crude oil recoved from the omicron uncertainty – to a good degree, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. The $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week, if nothing too surprising happens. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum, driven not only by positive fundamentals and Chile elections. The low volume indeed hinted at little willingness to sell – so, let‘s look for a good attempt to rise next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness is being decisively rejected, mirroring commodities – the decline indeed hasn‘t been in the disastrous category. The bulls clearly want to move. Summary S&P 500 and oil are rebounding from the omicron response pinch – and it‘s good we see cryptos doing the same. Corona wildcard has calmed down a little, and market breadth is making baby steps to improve. In this environment, high beta assets look poised to erase prior setbacks a little faster today, and can keep those gains unless a fresh bad headline strikes. One more tailwind – at least when it comes to real assets, for sure – is inflation coming back to the spotlight, which is what we‘ll have to wait for some more time still. But it‘ll happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment

Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.12.2021 09:32
Typically, various time frames perform better or worse for a trader at different times due to cycle overlaps. Having multiple trades on simultaneously from different time frames is typically an excellent hedge. This way, one can catch the specific trading instruments’ various shorter and longer-term trends. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, patience pays: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 21st, 2021. Typical mistakes are either an early entry or a chased trade and getting out too early of a steady trend. These behaviors have to do with pleasure-seeking and pain avoidance motivation. With the chart above in mind, most pass if presented with an opportunity where rewards are paid out in ten years. Wealth preservation, which we are after, should have nothing else in mind—long-term protection with a low-risk profile and a solid performance. The chart presented above is our most conservative view of the future for bitcoin, both in price and time. Meaning, it would come as no surprise to us if much higher price levels are achieved in a much shorter period of time. Yet, we tend to estimate typically very conservative to keep emotions like greed in check. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 21st, 2021. The percentage gain numbers of the previous chart assume the worst possible purchase price, which is an all-time high. If we purchase bitcoin right now or prices below recent trading prices, these numbers already drastically change. Meaning, while our pain-avoiding emotional motivators direct us in declining markets to sell, it is principle-based if you have statistically high probability models over the long term to instead think about purchasing bitcoin. As indicated in the weekly chart above, we see a window of opportunity for entries based on our quarterly chart exit time horizon. Scenario A, the more aggressive position-taking, is in a process already at the release of this chart book. Nevertheless, there is a probability that prices could decline as far as US$40,000, and low-risk entry spots within the price decline to such lower levels would be as a scenario B welcome just as well. Should prices penetrate below the US$40,000 level, a regrouping would be required before new entries could be discussed. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Position building in motion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 21st, 2021. Assuming entries here in our entry zone between US$47,000 and US$40,000 and exits in our first chart of this chart book, a bitcoin investment next to be an insurance play against troubled fiat currencies could provide a profit near a thousand percent. The daily chart above has marked days and entry prices of three trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel in the last five days. We took partial profits based on our quad exit strategy within hours of entry. Consequently, eliminating the original stop risk of less than a percent to zero risk. With a risk-reward ratio of 1:1000, we find it reasonable to sit through a few years with the remainder position size for sizeable rewards. Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Some of the worst mistakes in history were made based on the shortsightedness not to think long term. As creative and inventive a species, we cannot help but follow emotions that often do not have our own best interest in mind. One such emotion is instant gratification. It seems almost a burden to wait for being rewarded patiently. Yet, it is this discipline one needs to be a successful trader. First, you need the patience to not always be too early with one’s entry in a trade not to catch a falling knife. Then you require the patience not to chase a trade if you missed it.  Instead, wait for a later chance to get another low-risk entry spot or to pass up on the trade altogether. And foremost, once finding yourself in a good trade, it is imperative to sit on your hands and let the trade mature to full profits. The higher the time frame of your play is, the harder this test of your patience becomes.Remedies are good planning, consistent reviewing of a plan, rigorously following it, and employing an exit strategy suitable to your psychology (see our quad exit strategy). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 21st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver: Strong and Weak at Once. How Is That Even Possible?

Silver: Strong and Weak at Once. How Is That Even Possible?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 21.12.2021 16:01
  Gold is barely crawling up, while silver is boldly climbing the market ladder. When will its rungs turn slippery, causing the precious metal to fall?  Yesterday’s session was particularly uneventful in the case of the precious metals market, as crude oil and the general stock market stole the spotlight. Consequently, today’s analysis will focus on what’s happening in pre-market trading, as that’s what appears to be more important. At the moment of writing these words, gold is up very modestly – less than 0.2%. Consequently, after rallying to about $1,815 (in tune with my Thursday’s analysis) and invalidating the breakout above the rising resistance line, gold appears to be making another attempt to rally, but the strength of the move is very limited. Predicting higher gold prices might not be the best idea here, as the yellow metal was not able to even get to the red line, let alone to its previous monthly high. Silver, on the other hand, has moved quite visibly higher so far today. While gold moved higher by less than 0.2%, silver rallied by about 1.5% and is now trading very close to its previous monthly highs. This is very interesting, because silver is showing strength and weakness at once. How is that possible – one might ask. It’s the same as with trends or forecasts for silver. They can be bearish and bullish simultaneously, depending on the time frame that one focuses on. For example, I think that the very long-term outlook for silver is extremely bullish, but I also think that the medium-term trend is bearish. The short-term trend is also bearish, but the immediate-term trend is bullish. So, am I bullish or bearish on silver? Answering this without specifying the time frame is bound to create misunderstandings. Getting back to silver’s relative performance, it’s been weak when taking into account the last couple of weeks – please note how little of the recent monthly decline silver has corrected compared to gold. Gold recently moved to its October highs, but silver topped a few dollars below its October high. What does it tell us? Silver is likely to fall hard, also compared to gold, probably in tune with the general stock market – similarly to what happened in 2008 and 2020. That’s the same kind of performance that we saw in the very early parts of the huge declines. At the same time, silver is strong compared to gold on an immediate-term basis. This means that we’re likely at or close to a short-term top. Why? Because that’s what the precious metals market tends to do when it’s topping, and it’s one of the great gold trading tips to monitor the PM market for these situations. One could debate why this is really the case, and there are quite a few theories (the silver market is smaller, so more prone to sudden moves, etc.), but the point is that it simply works. Please note that some things – like the Pareto principle (a.k.a. the 20:80 rule) – can work and be very useful, even if it’s not clear why they work. Consequently, it seems that the days of this short-term corrective upswing are either over or about to be over, and that the precious metals sector will return to its medium-term decline any day now. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold In Limited Pullback

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold In Limited Pullback

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.12.2021 08:40
XAUUSD seeks support Gold softens as the US dollar edged higher. A surge above 1788 and then 1808 has prompted the bears to cover. The precious metal is looking for support after the breakout stalled with an overextended RSI. A bearish MA cross may weigh on short-term sentiment. The base of the initial breakout around 1770 is a key support. A deeper correction would lead to the daily support at 1753, a critical level to keep the rebound relevant. Gold may climb towards 1850 if the bulls succeed in pushing above 1814. USDCAD consolidates gains The Canadian dollar recouped some losses after better-than-expected retail sales. A break above the major daily resistance at 1.2930 has put the bulls back in control of the direction. The RSI’s repeated overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback. Trend followers would be looking to jump in at a better price. 1.2880 is the closest support. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action is above 1.2770. A rally above the intermediate resistance at 1.2960 may trigger an extended rally towards 1.3200. UK 100 makes a bullish attempt The FTSE 100 recovered some ground after the Omicron sell-off. The index has found solid buying at 7110. An oversold RSI has attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. A tentative break above 7300 suggests strong interest in keeping the market afloat. A bullish MA cross could lead to an acceleration on the upside. 7385 is a major hurdle on the daily chart. Its breach could cause a runaway rally and resume the uptrend. On the downside, 7250 is the first support, and 7110 is the second line of defense in case of weakness.
Apple’s Near a $3 Trillion Market Cap: Is it Right for You?

Apple’s Near a $3 Trillion Market Cap: Is it Right for You?

Dividend Power Dividend Power 22.12.2021 12:55
Apple’s Near a $3 Trillion Market Cap: Is it Right for You?   Apple (AAPL) is one of the best innovative tech companies around. However, its market cap is getting close to the $3 Trillion mark, and people must wonder if this is the right stock to invest in for your future.   Having a slice of the Apple company may do wonders to you. A couple of days ago, Warren Buffett’s stock holdings hit a record of $152 Billion in Apple stock. His investment of $31 billion continues to grow and surpass all his other companies.   Right now, Apple has the largest company by market cap in the world. When Apple’s stock price (AAPL) hits $182.86 per share, the company will have a market cap of $3 trillion. The next largest company would be Microsoft (MSFT), with a market cap of $2.43 billion.   Why Would Investors invest with Apple?   Since November 11th, Apple’s stock price has soared, and investors are trying to get a piece of the pie. This company is no ordinary company. It is a company that runs on innovation and excellence.   During the 4th Quarter, iPhone has increased in revenue 47% year over year to almost $39 Billion. The revenue has increased 29%, up to $83.9 billion. In addition, sales of the services Apple offers like Apple Music, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, and others have increased by over 25%.   For yearly revenue, Apple has reported combined sales of $365.8 billion, which is 33% higher than they took in 2020 at $274.5 Billion with gross margins up to 45%.   Most people think Apple is a company that has the iPhone and Macbook computers. However, this company always creates excellent products for its users that surpass most other companies.   A couple of years ago, Apple created the AirPods. AirPods are a simple Bluetooth earbud that can connect with your device. As of 2020, AirPods brought over $10 billion of revenue. That amount of revenue is more considerable than most tech companies. If you compare this with companies like Twitter (TWTR) or even Netflix (NFLX), you will see AirPods itself can bring in more sales. For instance, Twitter had revenue of $3.74 billion in 2020.   AirPods could be its own stand-alone sound company that brings in more revenue than Bose and JBL combined. That speaks volumes to Apple's products and how each product could be divested as its own company.   Apple is innovating, and you can see this through the new products they are getting ready to launch, such as the Apple Car and an augmented reality/VR set. These innovations give investors confidence that Apple is not just a phone company or computer software. Instead, they create and make more products that will dominate the new sectors.   Is Apple a Risky Investment?   With an almost $3 Trillion market cap and being the largest company in the world, you must wonder if it could all fall apart. That is not something you should worry about. Go to a coffee shop, gym, or mall and look at which devices people use.   Consumers usually use iPhones; they have AirPods in their ears and use MacBooks for business and work. So, it is hard not to see why the company brings in more revenue each year.   In the 4th Quarter of 2021, earnings have gone from $0.73 to $1.24 per share compared to the prior year. This company is working to bring in more revenue while creating value for its customers and shareholders.   If you think Apple is a bit riskier, there are ways to minimize the risk. You could invest in Microsoft (MSFT) as a less risky company. They have a stable subscription style business bringing them up as the second-largest company in the world. It is hard not to put these two companies together.   The other option is to find a nice index fund you can invest in, like VTSAX or VFIAX or another suitable Vanguard Index Fund. They can capture the stock market with less risk associated with owning a more significant portion of a single stock. Often, Apple stock is the number one investment for these index funds since they invest based on market capitalization. In this way, an investor can own Apple as part of a more diversified portfolio.   Is Apple Right for You?   Looking at the finances, you must wonder, is Apple right for me? The company continues to innovate and grow. Apple’s market cap is nearing $3 Trillion, and no one could have thought this was possible even a few years ago. Apple stock is not just a 10 bagger meaning that it is increased ten times but a rare 100 bagger twice over. If an investor had bought Apple stock in 2001 and reinvested the dividends, $10,000 would have turned into over $3.6 million.   In 2018, Apple hit a $1 Trillion market cap. It took two more years to double it. So far this year, the stock price has risen over 30% on top of the 80% the stock price rose in 2020. Now compare that to the S&P500, which has only increased 25%. In 2021.   Apple is a company to invest in at the right price. The company is innovative, has a solid balance sheet, and grows the top and bottom lines. Apple continues to grow behind a brand that means excellence and perfection. People may not always enjoy the price of the products, but you cannot deny they are built with quality and are in high demand.   Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.7% out of over 8,182 financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha.   Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money.   
When All Is Said and Done

When All Is Said and Done

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.12.2021 15:56
S&P 500 duly rallied on broad strength, and credit markets performance bodes well for all risk-on assets. Now a little consolidation after yesterday‘s steep gains is ahead, but I don‘t see it as derailing future gains. The stock bull run isn‘t over, and doesn‘t need the infrastructure bill for its further advance, price action shows. The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. Commodities remain in rally mode after the recent correction, and crude oil sending a bullish message (and not one of fear) is a welcome sign. The same goes for copper moving in sync with the rest of the commodities – and that has positive implications for silver too. Precious metals though still remain a patience trade, where the risks of being out of the markets outweight those of being in – it‘s a bet on the Fed making a wrong tapering / tightening move – with the market figuring out so beforehand. It sure would come as the compressing yield spreads reveal that is the greatest fear, but we aren‘t there yet. Finally, cryptos cautious mood today illustrates the certainly less exciting session just ahead than was the case yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 has woken up, and indeed surpassed the 50-day moving average. The lower volume isn‘t an issue, but a little consolidation is ahead today – not a steep rally continuation. Credit Markets HYG jumped higher in a giant risk-on nod that is further confirmed by the quality bonds performance. Again, I‘m looking for a little consolidation here today as well. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing isn‘t to be taken at all seriously – I‘m looking for more gains in both the yellow and white metals, at their own and relatively slow pace. The countdown to Fed policy mistake and inflation returning to the limelight, is on. Crude Oil Crude oil scored a nice upswing, oil stocks confirmed as well the return of strength into the stock market, and both black gold and S&P 500 can keep rising together over the next days. Chances are the $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week. Copper Copper keeps agreeing with the risk-on turn, and is certainly primed to go much higher over the nearest weeks and months. Similarly to uranium, I remain bullish on the sector, especially since copper, silver, nickel and lithium are all green economy preconditions. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum time to consolidate yesterday‘s gains, is here – and I‘m not looking for a bullish picture based on Ethereum performance. Sideways to a little down, that‘s the most likely outcome before the bulls move again. Summary Consolidation of yesterday‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains is ahead for today, but the Santa Claus rally is by no means over. Even if oil and cryptos hesitate a little, the constructive message from bonds and copper is overpowering that in my view. As explained in detail within the opening part of today‘s analysis, the bulls have to odds to keep moving – and will likely take advantage thereof before the year is over. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto markets might pause before the uptrend catches traction

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto markets might pause before the uptrend catches traction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.12.2021 16:07
Bitcoin price swept the liquidity resting above $49,527 and edged closer to retesting the $50,000 psychological level. Ethereum price could see a brief correction to solidify its breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Ripple price remains strong as it sets up a higher high, indicating a retest of $1 is likely. Bitcoin price is hovering around a crucial level after collecting liquidity above it. This development over the past 48 hours indicates that BTC will consolidate here before continuing its ascent. Ethereum and Ripple follow the pioneer crypto closely and show promise of gains soon. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price sliced through Monday’s high at $47,565 and collected the liquidity resting above $49,527. While BTC might head higher and retest the $50,000 psychological level, investors need to pay attention to the possibility that the big crypto might slide lower and sweep Monday’s low at $45,550. If buyers resist booking profits, there is a high chance BTC will retest $50,00 and make a run for last week’s high at $50,0835. In some cases, Bitcoin price might extend to the $53,618 resistance level. In total, this run-up would constitute an 8.6% ascent. BTC/USD 3-hour chart Increased profit-taking from holders could undo the gains seen over the past 48 hours. This development could knock BTC down to Monday’s lows at $45,550 or sweep last week’s lows at $45,438. Ethereum price needs to solidify its stance Ethereum price action since November 28 set up a falling wedge pattern. This setup is obtained by connecting the three lower lows and four lower highs formed during this period using trend lines. The technical formation forecasts a 16% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $3,912, which puts ETH at $4,533. So far, ETH has broken out of this pattern and crawled closer to retest the $4,155 resistance barrier. Initially, however, investors can expect a retracement to $3,912 or the 62% retracement level at $3,823. A bounce from these barriers will solidify the breakout and indicate that a 16% ascent to $4,535 is likely. ETH/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the bullish pattern, if Ethereum price produces a lower low below $3,669, coinciding with the low of the trading range, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, ETH could revisit the $3,415 support floor. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,200 as support to resume bull run Ripple price remains strong Ripple price pierced through the declining trend line on December 18 and has rallied 19% to set up a swing high at $0.971. This run-up, while impressive, could extend to retest the $1.015 resistance level. In a bullish case, the XRP price could tag the $1.102 hurdle and collect the liquidity resting above it. However, it is unlikely that the remittance token will continue this ascent, especially since BTC might undergo a minor retracement. XRP/USD 4-hour chart Due to the correlation between the two, XRP price might follow the big crypto and undergo a correction. Moreover, the 19% ascent seen so far has collected the liquidity in its immediate vicinity and is likely to undergo a minor retracement. If this downswing pushes Ripple price below $0.688, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. XRP price looks primed for a break out to $1.75
NVT Shows Legitimate Bitcoin (BTC) Growth — On-Chain Analysis

NVT Shows Legitimate Bitcoin (BTC) Growth — On-Chain Analysis

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 21.12.2021 21:00
In this article, BeInCrypto takes a look at Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicators, focusing especially on the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio.  What is NVT? The NVT (Network Value to Transaction) is an on-chain indicator which shows the relationship between transaction volume and market capitalization. It is simply the ratio between the market value and the daily transaction volume. A very high value is considered bearish, since it means that the increase in market value is not supported by an increase in transaction volume. For a more detailed explanation, click here. Current reading Since July 2019, NVT has been hovering between 13 and 40, with the exception of a few deviations above and below. Therefore, it is possible to say that the indicator has created a range between these two levels. On July 25, NVT reached an all-time high of 60.46. At the time, the BTC price was trading at $33,000.  Despite the fact that the price has been increasing, NVT has been falling since and is currently at 32.3, right in the middle of its long-term range.  Therefore, while the increase in the price of BTC was not supported by an increase in transactions in July, it is supported now. Chart By Glassnode This is more clearly visible when looking at the number of daily transactions. Transactions were at 195,248 in July, while they are currently at 255,488. This increase in the number of transactions is behind the drop in NVT. Chart By Glassnode NVT signal On-Chain analyst @Woonomic tweeted a NVT signal chart, which shows an oversold reading. Source: Twitter Since the 2018 bottom, NVT has fallen below 20 only four times (black circles). Each was followed by a significant upward movement. Therefore, if previous history is any indication, a significant upward movement is likely to follow. Chart By Glassnode For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here The post NVT Shows Legitimate Bitcoin (BTC) Growth — On-Chain Analysis appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2021 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2021 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 26.09.2021 04:43
Image Credit: All images courtesy of Aleph Blog || Lookout below! I’ll keep this brief, as I’ve said it so many times before. This market is on borrowed time. The only comparable period for this market is from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2000 — the dot-com bubble, which was another period of speculation fueled by loose monetary policy. Here’s a picture of what price returns were like from that era over the next ten years (but with a 2% dividend yield). And we are touching the sky at present. Though at the end of the quarter, the S&P 500 was priced to return -0.91%/year over the next ten years, at present that value is -1.41%/year. None of these figures are adjusted for inflation. At the recent high of 4,536.95 on September 2nd, the expected return was -1.73%/year for the next ten years. This graph shows how we are touching the sky: The actual line is touching the maximum line. The future line gives an idea of how valuations could normalize over ten years. The Dow 36,000 crowd will get their day in the sun, maybe even this year, or it might not happen until 2035. But even if it hits the level, it’s unlikely that it will stay above that level for most of the rest of the next 10 years. I’ll close with a quote from something I wrote recently: Though interest rates are low, they are not negative. 10-year investment grade bonds are competitive against domestic stocks at this point. Even if you are losing against inflation, you are losing less against inflation than the market as a whole. Same for cash. I don’t think that there is no alternative. Here are the alternatives: Investment grade bonds (market duration)CashValue stocksCyclical stocksForeign stocksEmerging market stocks and bonds So consider the alternatives, and consider hedging. I can’t nuance this anymore, as we are in uncharted waters. We are touching the sky. And I think even as the market falls, value should do well, as it did in 2000-2001. This piece from Bob Arnott at Research Affiliates makes a good case for it. So play it safe; it’s a messy speculative world out there. It wouldn’t take much for it to turn ugly.
Unforced Errors

Unforced Errors

David Merkel David Merkel 09.11.2021 04:40
Photo Credit: Paul Kagame || Hail Emperor Xi, the greatest since Qin Shi Huang! Ready for a cold winter? Much of the world is not. Many places have discouraged using hydrocarbons to produce power, ostensibly for environmental goals, whether those are valid or not. Whether by the fiat of the Chinese Communist Party, or because some Eurocrats push a green agenda, many people are facing a winter where power/heat may be limited. And even if there may not be absolute shortages everywhere, higher prices for all forms of energy, will pinch the budgets of many in the lower middle class and below this winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Part of this stems from central planning. China is the easiest example. Xi Jinping has arrogated to himself more and more power over time, changing the dynamics of the Communist Party, which once at least had some factions, to a unitary party that has only one leader, Emperor President Xi. Some of it came about by eliminating corrupt rivals, but the rest from instilling fear within the Party. Almost every evening, my wife and I read the Bible together. Recently we have been going through the post-exilic portions of the Old Testament where the Jews live under the rule of the Babylonian and Medo-Persian Empires. Those rulers were typically absolute monarchs: do what I say or die! In going through Esther, my wife commented that it was stupid to have laws that cannot be altered. (The same thing is stated in the Book of Daniel.) My comment back to her was if you were an absolute monarch in that era, you were God walking on earth, and could never be wrong. Thus no decree of an Emperor could be wrong. And so it is for President Xi: everything he says is right. He may be an atheist, but to the Chinese in Red China, he is “God walking on Earth” in at least the Hegelian sense. As such, he makes a decree, and those serving him are scared to do anything more or less than he wants. But with vague directives, what does he want? Unilateral authority is particularly vulnerable to making mistakes. In the intermediate-term, China is likely to get weaker because of the increasing concentration of power of President Xi. That’s not to say that capitalist democracies can’t run off the rails, but typically with enough dissenting voices, the worst outcomes don’t usually take place. There are exceptions though. The first exception is regulators with too much discretionary authority. By pursuing one limited goal in the short-run, such as long-term environmental objectives, they may harm the interests of ordinary people in developed markets by making it hard to get food, fuel/energy, and other necessities. And applying the same rules in foreign policy, they may well condemn the developing world to permanent poverty. The developing world thinks the developed world doesn’t care. They are right, and they will ignore what their current leaders have promised in order to curry temporary favor with the developed world. Now where there is the ability to self-correct, eventually societies will remove regulators, politicians, etc. That said, some things are more entrenched than others. I speak of the cult of stimulus. What is more untouchable than the central banks? It’s hard to think of anything more unaccountable. They may technically be beholden to the local parliament, but practically, no one ever messes with them aside from despots pursuing hyperinflation (Venezuela, Turkey, Lebanon, etc.). What gores me is that the unaccountable central banks never ‘fess up to errors. Listen to this: “Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stall,” the Fed said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report released Monday.Fed Warns of Peril in Run-Up of Risky Asset Prices, Stablecoins That serial blower of bubbles, the Fed, warns us about the height of risky asset prices. Fed policy works via encouraging economic actors to borrow less or more. They have been running a more aggressive monetary policy than they ever needed to, and in the process have inflated housing prices, stocks, bonds of all sorts, private equity, etc. This is not just true of the Fed in the US, but in most developed country central banks. This was an unforced error. Monetary policy could have been tightened in mid-2020, and I mean raising the Fed funds rate, not just stopping QE. When the equity markets race to new highs so rapidly, why should any stimulus exist at all? We don’t need stimulus from Congress either. When demand is so strong that supply chains creak, buckle, and seize up, it is not time to stimulate more, rather, it is time to balance the budget. I would like to think that supply-chain troubles, inflation, and growth are all transitory. But if in an effort to force growth higher than it should be in the short-run, the growth will still be transitory, but the supply-chain troubles and inflation will persist. Beware the experts that say they run things for your good; they likely don’t know what they are doing. ============= Ending note: one more thing, beware the inflation numbers, particularly on items in short supply. If the economists reduce the weights on those things in short supply, it will artificially understate inflation.
Breaking up is hard to do

Breaking up is hard to do

David Merkel David Merkel 10.11.2021 04:04
Photo Credit: Chris Blakeley || Always optimistic when things are growing, and in the dumps when it falls apart Over the years, I have suggested that two firms should break up on a number of occasions: AIG & GE. Both are now in the process of completing their breakups. The news on GE dropped today, and I was surprised that the media did not pick up on one significant question on the GE breakup. Who gets the insurance liabilities that have been a real pain to GE even after selling off Genworth. As I tweeted: General Electric to Split Into Three Public Companies – WSJ https://t.co/BR8uXhhDVJ Notably missing from all the $GE press coverage is who has to pay off the insurance liabilities: Aviation, probably the weakest of the three. Could gore those relying on the guarantee… pic.twitter.com/qhT0y4gfXL— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) November 9, 2021 How could they miss this? I think I first suggested that GE should break up in a comment in RealMoney’s Columnist Conversation sometime back in 2005, but that is lost in the pre-2008 RealMoney file system, and exists no more. In terms of what I can show I will quote from this old post from 2008: 5) File this under Sick Sigma, or Six Stigma — GE is finally getting closer to breaking up the enterprise.� It has always been my opinion that conglomerates don’t work because of diseconomies of scale.� As I wrote at RealMoney: David MerkelGE — Geriatric Elephant4/27/2007 1:16 PM EDT First, my personal bias. Almost every firm with a market cap greater than $100 billion should be broken up. I don’t care how clever the management team is, the diseconomies of scale become crushing in the megacaps. Regarding GE in specific, it is likely a better buy here than it was in early 1999, when the stock first breached this price level. That said, it doesn’t own Genworth, the insurance company that it had to jettison in order to keep its undeserved AAA rating. Which company did better since the IPO of Genworth? Genworth did so much better that it is not funny. 87% total return (w/divs reinvested) for GNW vs. 28% for GE. A pity that GE IPO’ed it rather than spinning it off to shareholders… But here’s a problem with breaking GE up. GE Capital, which still provides a lot of the profits could not be AAA as a standalone entity and have an acceptable ROE. It would be single-A rated, which would push up funding costs enough to cut into profit margins. (Note: GE capital could not be A-/A3 rated, or their commercial paper would no longer be A1/P1 which is a necessary condition for investment grade finance companies to be profitable.) Would GE do as well without a captive finance arm (GE Capital)? It would take some adjustment, but I would think so. So, would I break up GE by selling off GE Capital? Yes, and I would give GE Capital enough excess capital to allow it to stay AAA, even if it means losing the AAA at the industrial company, and then let the new GE Capital management figure out what to do with all of the excess capital, and at what rating to operate. Splitting up that way would force the industrial arm to become more efficient with its proportionately larger debt load, and would highlight the next round of breakups, which would have the industrial divisions go their own separate ways. Position: none, and I have never understood the attraction to GE as a stock Over the years, I continued to write about GE and Genworth (I grew bearish over LTC after analyzing Penn Treaty. I was always bearish on mortgage insurance). I never thought either would do well, but I never expected them to do as badly as they did. Optimistic accounting ploys from the Welch years bit into profits of Immelt, as he was forced to reset accruals higher again and again. Overly aggressive financial and insurance underwriting similarly had to be reversed, and losses realized. After today, all but the successor firm for GE (Aviation) has a chance to do something significant, freed from the distractions of being in a conglomerate. They can focus, and maybe win. As for GE Aviation, because of the insurance liabilities they will probably receive a valuation discount. Maybe they will sacrifice and pay up, selling the liabilities to Buffett with significant overcollateralization. American International Group I first suggested that AIG break up back in 2008. Only M. R. Greenberg had the capability of managing the behemoth, and once he was gone, lower level managers began making decisions that Greenberg would have quashed, which led to short-term gains, and larger long-term losses. After AIG was taken over by the Fed, bit-by-bit they began selling off the pieces — Hartford Steam Boiler, ILFC, AIA, Alico (to MetLife), and more. They were left with a portion of the international P&C business, and the domestic life and P&C businesses. They are now planning on spinning off the domestic life companies, which will leave AIG as a P&C insurer with relatively clean liabilities (They reinsured Asbestos and Environmental with Berkshire Hathaway). Where do we go from here? Is there a lesson here? Avoid complexity. Avoid mixing mixing industrial and financial. Avoid mixing life and P&C. (Allstate is finally splitting that.) That said, there may be another lesson for the future. What of the extremely large companies that are monopolies? Some of them aren’t complex; they just dominate a large area of the economy as monopolies. Governments want to do one of two things with monopolies. They either want to break them up, or turn them into regulated utilities. Why? The government doesn’t like entities that get almost as powerful as them, so they limit their size, scope, and subject them to regulation. So be aware if you hold some of the largest companies in the US or the world, because governments have their eyes on them, and want them to be subject to the government(s). Full disclosure: long MET
An Estimate of the Future

An Estimate of the Future

David Merkel David Merkel 19.11.2021 07:49
Photo Credit: eflon || All in all, you’re just another brick in the wall… In some ways, the Federal Reserve is the whipping boy of Congress. Congress can’t decide on anything significant, so the Fed fills in the blanks, and keeps things moving, even if it creates humongous asset bubbles in the process. That is what we are facing today. Overvalued stocks, housing, corporate bonds, private equity, and more. Inflation in goods and services may be transitory, but asset inflation is a constant. Whether by QE or rate policy, the Fed tries to end the possibility of recessions by making financing cheap, and blowing asset bubbles in the process. What of the future? The Fed will be dragged kicking and screaming to tightening. It will follow the stupid Alan Greenspan highway of 25 basis points per meeting. It will be all too predictable, which has little to no impact until it is too late, creating pro-cyclical economic policy, something the Fed specializes in. The Fed will be surprised (again) to see that the long end of the yield curve does not respond to their efforts. Are they stupid? Yes. the yield curve hasn’t worked in the classical way for over 20 years. In an overindebted economy, long rates are sluggish. Can the Fed abandon the dead orthodoxy of neoclassical economics to embrace the reality of overindebted economics? I doubt it. I asked two Fed governors three years ago when the Fed would abandon the failed Neoclassical economics. They looked like dead sheep for a moment, before they gave some lame defenses of the theory that can’t account for financial markets or marketing. What I expect is that the Fed will tighten the Fed funds rate to 1.5% or so, the long end sinking, and then something blows up, and they return to the prior policy of 0% rates, and QE… failed policies that inflate asset bubbles and increase inequality. We’re in a “doom loop” where there is no way to purge this system of its errors. We would be better off under a gold standard, with stricter regulation of banks. Would we have a recession? Yes, but eventually the economy would grow again organically, without the pollution of stimulus. That said, the Federal Reserve is not the main problem. The main problem is American culture that will not tolerate severe recessions. We need recessions to liquidate bad debts that hinder the economy from growing rapidly in the future. We need to accept the boom-bust cycle, and not look to the government or central bank to moderate matters. Bank regulation is another matter, as loose regulation of banks led to extreme booms and busts, particularly between 1870-1913, and 2004-2008. Conclusion The Fed will tighten and fail, returning us to the same morass that we are in now. Financial repression via the Fed will continue to create inequality with no smoking gun. Stupid people will finger other causes, when the real cause is the Federal Reserve. We need to eliminate the Federal Reserve, and cause Congress and the Executive Branch to take responsibility for their failed policies. PS — there could be a currency panic, but I doubt it. Too many countries want to export to the US.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2021 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2021 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 16.12.2021 04:35
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog This should be a brief post. At the end of the third quarter, the S&P 500 was poised to nominally return -0.64%/year over the next 10 years. As of the close today, that figure was -1.83%/year, slightly more than the -1.84%/year at the record high last Friday. The only period compares with this valuation-wise is the dot-com bubble. We are above dot-com level valuations. And if you view the 10-year returns from the worst time of the dot-com bubble to now, you can see that the results they obtained are milder than what I forecast here. Of course, a lot of what will happen in nominal terms will rely on the actions of the Fed. Will the Fed: Allow a real recession to clear away dud assets that are on life support from low rates? (Collapsing the current asset bubble)Change the terms of monetary policy, and start directly monetizing US Treasury debt? (Risking high inflation)Continue to dither with financial repression, leaving rates low, not caring about moderate inflation, with real growth zero-like. (Zombie economy — this is the most likely outcome for now) In some ways the markets are playing around with something I call “the last arbitrage.” Bonds versus Stocks. The concept of TINA (There is no alternative [to stocks]) relies on the idea that the Fed will be the lapdog of the equity markets. If stocks are high, the Fed is happy. Phrased another way, if the Fed maximizes wealth inequality, it is happy. And the Fed will be happy. They live to employ thousands of macroeconomists who would have a hard time finding real employment. These economists live to corrupt our understanding f the macroeconomy, justifying the actions of the Fed. The Fed just wants to scrape enough seigniorage to pay the staff, and keep Congress and the Administration mollified. All taken out of the hides of those who save. So with the last arbitrage… interest rates have to stay low to keep the stock market high, even if it means slow growth, and moderate and growing inflation. The likely change promulgated by the Fed today, raising the short rate by 0.75% in 2022 will likely flatten the yield curve, leading to a crisis of some sort, and push them back into QE and near-zero short rates. The stock market will have a pullback and a rally, but what of inflation? How will people act when there is no way to save for the short-run, without inflation eating away value? Brave new world. The Fed is stuck, and we are stuck with them. Gold does nothing, and would be a kinder mistress than the Fed. Better to live within strict limits, than the folly of an elastic currency. But as is true with all things in America, we are going to have to learn this the hard way. PS — As for me, I am living with value stocks, small stocks, and international stocks. Very little in the S&P 500 here.
GBPUSD arouses interest, EURUSD is consolidating near June 2020's lows

GBPUSD arouses interest, EURUSD is consolidating near June 2020's lows

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.12.2021 08:53
EURUSD tests resistance The US dollar stalled over improved risk appetite. The pair is consolidating near June 2020’s lows. A bearish breakout would further extend the downtrend. The euro so far has found buyers at 1.1235. The bulls need to lift offers around 1.1360, the upper band of the recent consolidation range, before they could hope for a reversal. An extended rally may send the price to 1.1460. In the meantime, the RSI’s overbought situation could briefly limit the bullish push as intraday traders take profit near the resistance. GBPUSD makes a bullish attempt The sterling surged after Britain’s economy showed solid growth in Q3. A previous rebound to the supply zone near 1.3370 has put pressure on the short side. Then the pound found bids at 1.3170. Four attempts at this key support suggest a strong interest in keeping the price steady. 1.3370 is a major hurdle as it coincides with the 30-day moving average. A breakout could initiate a bullish reversal and propel the pound to 1.3500. An overbought RSI may cause a short pullback with 1.3240 as the closest support. USOIL awaits breakout WTI crude found support from a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories. Price action saw active buying above 66.00, keeping the early December rally valid in the process. The latest rebound is testing the supply zone around 73.30, which sits along the 30-day moving average. A close above this area of interest would force the bears to cover, paving the way for a rally towards 78.00. On the downside, 71.00 is the immediate support. And 68.50 is a second line of defense in case of a deeper correction.
Gold along the year

Gold along the year

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 27.12.2021 09:49
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 632nd Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 25 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com Christmas Greetings to Everyone Everywhere. With but five trading days remaining in 2021, Gold -- as we'll show -- traditionally is the gift that keeps on giving into year-end. But first, we've this: The last time 25 December arrived on a Saturday was 11 years ago in 2010: â–  'Twas the date of Gold Update No. 58; today we're penning No. 632; â–  The price of Gold then was 1379; today 'tis 1810, (+31%) â–  The U.S. money supply ("M2" basis) then was $8.9 trillion; today 'tis $21.6 trillion, (+2.4x) â–  The supply of Gold then was 173.7 tonnes; today 'tis 202.8 tonnes, (+17%). Query, (courtesy of the "Fun With Numbers Dept."): Given across these past 11 years the +2.4x increase in the U.S. money supply, even as tempered for the duly noted +17% increase in the supply of Gold itself, ought its price nonetheless now be 2747? After all, currency debasement is the ultimate, primary driver of price, lagging as 'tis been. Further by the above opening Gold Scoreboard which comprehensively accounts for 41 years of currency debasement, more than double present price is Gold's valuation today of 4030! Thus analogous in reprising the infamous query of immortal football coach Vince Lombardi: "What da hell's goin' on out dere??" 'Course, you regular readers of The Gold Update know exactly what's goin' on out dere. 'Tis "The Age of the Shiny Object". Why purchase Gold -- as stated just +31% from this day of days 11 years ago -- when by merely owning the S&P 500 itself you've recorded a gain over same of +276%? Better still, how about your cryptocrap with its gains of +∞%? But wait, there's more: How are those NFTs workin' out for ya? (We think of them ultimately as "non-fundable tokens"). Then, too, is "The M Word" crowd: "Churn it and burn it, baby!" Or as Carly Simon might have sung it from back in '71: "Manipulation..." Regardless, with the S&P now at an all-time "Santa Claus Rally" closing high of 4726 (thank you record level of stock buybacks), Stoopid is sleeping securely because should the market dip from here, it always comes back, right? Arithmetically that's been undeniably true. Undeniably true as well by its historical track is the S&P's price/earnings ratio (our "live" read now 49.5x) having always returned to its median (at present 20.4x since the Index's inception nearly 65 years ago on 04 March 1957). So here's the crux: we've already accounted that year-over-year earnings' increases from a "shutdown 2020" to an "open 2021" were not sufficient enough to materially boost the "E" of the P/E such as to mitigate the ever-rocket-boosted "P". Therefore: the next reversion of the P/E to its 20.4x median essentially requires a move of the S&P from today's 4726 level down to 1948, (i.e. a -58.8% "dip"). But Stoopid worries not: "Been there, done that, it always comes back." Even as this time 'round rates rise, in turn ramping up that variably-priced interest on Stoopid's fully drawn credit cards. "Got Gold?" For which there is some good news, both aft and ahead. â–  Aft - Whilst during each of this past Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday Gold dealt with dilly-dallying 'round as usual in the 1780s, price finally saw its way clear to close on Thursday above 1800, its first weekly settle north of said number since that ending 19 November. â–  Ahead - Per this missive's title, 'tis time for Gold's annual finale rally, (our now pointing that out meaning it shan't occur). But it being a festive day, let's stay positive as traditionally is Gold's wont through the final five trading days of the year. For as the following table displays, Gold during this stint has risen in 17 of the 20 completed years thus far this millennium. We thus anticipate that for this 21st year of the 21st century, Gold shall be higher in a week's time than today's 1810 level: That is a statistical gift. Now here's one that is technical: The above graphic depicts Gold's daily "price oscillator" (a mainstay of the website's Market Rhythms page) during 2021's fourth quarter-to-date. The rightmost wee blue nub just crossed to positive, the trader's signal thus being to get Long Gold. The prior 12 such Long signals (dating back to 27 March 2020) saw upside price follow-throughs averaging as much as +77 points which in that vacuum from 1810 would be to 1887, the more conservative median being +31 points to 1841. No guarantees 'natch, but nicely on time to synch with Gold's annual finale rally should it come to pass. Meanwhile, unsurpassed for better than three years until just now is the current level of the Economic Barometer, which with but a week to run in 2021 saw this past week's set of 13 incoming metrics move the Baro to its highest oscillative level since 31 July 2018. Yes, there were a few weak links in the data: Q3's Current Account Deficit sagged to its worst level since Q3 2006; and although the quarter's final read on Gross Domestic Product increased to an annualized "growth" rate of +2.3%, that was more than double-mitigated by the party-pooper Chain Deflator being finalized at a +6.0% "growth" rate. (For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that basically means there is no real GDP "growth", but rather "stagflation"; look it up). Too, increases slowed in November's Personal Income and Spending. But highlighted were improvements in November's New and Existing Home Sales, Durable Orders and (not surprising should you follow the Baro) the Conference Board's Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators. 'Course the real stinker was the Fed's favoured inflation read of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures coming in at an annualized pace of +6.0%. But, perhaps folks "just don't get it yet" given the level of Consumer Confidence (also per the Conference Board) rising in December to a five-month high. Here's the whole view: With respect to the Baro's having re-attained the noted 2018 level, 'twas after that the S&P 500 then declined into the year's Christmas Eve by -16.5%. Not that history shall repeat same going into next year: we anticipate worse -- far worse -- either by our "Look Ma, No Earnings!" crash (per the aforementioned P/E assessment), and/or by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Nominee Lael "The Brain" Brainard's "Climate Change!" crash. Also there's now ever-increasing amount of "Oh My! Omicron!" Still, upward economic gains along with increasing inflation strains both serve justice for the Fed to commence raising its Bank's Funds rate as early as 26 Jan. Which in turn means you'll have somewhere else to park your dough when the stock market doth over the cliff go. Get ready for "The Return of the Savings Account!" In theatres next Spring. 'Course far better than that, again: "Got Gold?" And don't forget Silver too! All so stated, New York FedPrez John "It's All Good" Williams looks to the Fed's rate rises as an economic positive -- which to his credit -- has historically synched with the beginning of higher interest rates. And perhaps more costly money can be withstood, Dow Jones Newswires this past week having referred to U.S. household wealth as "vast". Indeed per a year-old survey from the Fed, the median StateSide household wealth level is $122,000. (Admittedly, we did not dig sufficiently deep into the data to divulge if that includes proceeds from the aforementioned fully-drawn credit cards). Next let's fully draw our two-panel graphic of Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right. Especially encouraging therein are Gold's "Baby Blues" penetrating up through their 0% axis in confirming the regression trend having rotated to positive. And the Profile shows the most dominant trading level of the past two weeks as (no surprise) 1787: With the same drill for Silver, we see her "Baby Blues" (below left) in accelerating ascent, albeit the low 23s may be a sticky wicket there. Still, her Profile (below right) appears supportive for the mid-to-lower 22s, (and happy winkies to you too there, Sister Silver): Time to wrap it up from here with this note: it again appears The World Elites' Economic Forum in Davos is being "deferred", the great convening over The Great Reset to instead take place toward early summer. Bit of an economic inflow delay there for little ole Switzerland, but we have it on well-vetted authority they'll manage. The small alpine nation may rank just 135th by size and 101st by population. But it ranks seventh in total Gold holdings and far and away first in per capita Gold wealth: there is one tonne of Gold for every 8,322 people which (in sparing you the math) is $7,672 per Swiss resident. (Italy is a distant second at $2,589). "And Season's Greetings to you, mmb!" Thank you, Squire, and our very best to you 'n yours, all the little Squires down the line, and absolutely as well to our star readers right 'round the world! Everyone take care, and don't forget the real star: Gold! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
Is the End of Transitory Inflation the End of Gold Bulls?

Is the End of Transitory Inflation the End of Gold Bulls?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 24.12.2021 11:18
The debate about the nature of inflation is over. Now the question is what the end of transitory inflation implies for gold. I offer two perspectives. Welcome, my son. Welcome to the inflationary machine. Welcome to the new economic regime of elevated inflation. That’s official because even central bankers have finally admitted what I’ve been saying for a long time: the current high inflation is not merely a transitory one-off price shock. In a testimony before Congress, Jerome Powell agreed that “it’s probably a good time to retire” the word “transitory” in relation to inflation. Bravo, Jay! It took you only several months longer than my freshmen students to figure it out, but better late than never. Actually, even a moderately intelligent chimpanzee would notice that inflation is not merely temporary just by looking at the graph below. To be clear, I’m not predicting hyperinflation or even galloping inflation. Nor do I claim that at least some of the current inflationary pressures won’t subside next year. No, some supply-side factors behind recent price surges are likely to abate in 2022. However, other drivers will persist, or even intensify (think about housing inflation or energy crisis). Let’s be honest: we are facing a global inflation shock right now. In many countries, inflation has reached its highest rate in decades. In the United States, the annual CPI rate is 6.2%, while it reached 5.2% in Germany, 4.9% in the Eurozone, and 3.8% in the United Kingdom. The shameful secret is that central banks and governments played a key role in fueling this inflation. As the famous Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises noticed once, The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God; inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy — a deliberate policy of people who resort to inflation because they consider it to be a lesser evil than unemployment. But the fact is that, in the not very long run, inflation does not cure unemployment. Indeed, the Fed and the banking system injected a lot of money into the economy and also created room for the government to boost its spending and send checks to Americans. The resulting consumer spending boom clogged the supply chains and caused a jump in inflation. Obviously, the policymakers don’t want to admit their guilt and that they have anything to do with inflation. At the beginning, they claim that there is no inflation at all. Next, they say that inflation may exist after all, but is only caused by the “base effect”, so it will be a short-lived phenomenon that results solely from the nature of the yearly comparison. Lastly, they admit that there is something beyond the “base effect” but inflation will be transitory because it’s caused only by a few exceptional components of the overall index, the outliers like used cars this year. Nothing to worry about, then. Higher prices are a result of bottlenecks that will abate very soon on their own. Later, inflation is admitted to be more broad-based and persistent, but it is said to be caused by greedy businesses and speculators who raise prices maliciously. Finally, the policymakers present themselves as the salvation from the inflation problem(that was caused by them in the first place). Such brilliant “solutions” as subsidies to consumers and price controls are introduced and further disrupt the economy. The Fed has recently admitted that inflation is not merely transitory, so if the abovementioned scheme is adequate, we should expect to look for scapegoats and possibly also interventions in the economy to heroically fight inflation. Gold could benefit from such rhetoric, as it could increase demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedges. However, the Fed’s capitulation also implies a hawkish shift. If inflation is more persistent, the US central bank will have to act in a more decisive way, as inflation won’t subside on its own. The faster pace of quantitative easing tapering and the sooner interest rate hikes imply higher bond yields and a stronger greenback, so they are clearly negative for gold prices. Having said that, the Fed stays and is likely to stay woefully behind the curve. The real federal funds rate (i.e., adjusted by the CPI annual rate) is currently at -6.1%, which is the deepest level in history, as the chart below shows. It is much deeper than it was at the lows of stagflation in the 1970s, which may create certain problems in the future. What is important here is that even when the Fed raises the federal funds rate by one percentage point next year, and even when inflation declines by another two percentage points, the real federal funds rate will increase to only -3%, so it will stay deeply in negative territory. Surely, the upward direction should be negative for gold prices, and the bottom in real interest rates would be a strong bearish signal for gold. However, rates remaining well below zero should provide some support or at least a decent floor for gold prices (i.e., higher than the levels touched by gold in the mid-2010s). Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Will Santa Give Us Interest Rate Hikes for 2022?

Will Santa Give Us Interest Rate Hikes for 2022?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 23.12.2021 17:28
If the Fed normalizes its balance sheet and markets freak-out, it will be a bridge too far. But interest rate hikes won’t crash a strong US economy. With Fed officials increasingly hawked up, the narrative shifted from a tapering of asset purchases to potential interest rate hikes. And now, with whispers of the Fed plotting to normalize its balance sheet, questions have arisen over the potential impact on the PMs. To explain, I wrote on Dec. 20: After admitting that inflation “is alarmingly high, persistent, and has broadened to affect more categories of goods and services,” Waller implored the Fed to sell some of its bond holdings. For context, tapering means that bonds are purchased at a slower pace or not at all. However, even zero purchases result in the Fed’s nearly $8.76 trillion in bond holdings remaining constant. Conversely, if the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling bonds to private investors, it’s akin to a taper on steroids. Waller said: “If we start doing some balance sheet runoff by summer, that’ll take some pressure off, you don’t have to raise rates quite as much. My view is we should start doing that by summer.” Source: Bloomberg However, is this a plausible path for the Fed over the medium term? In a word: no. While the prospect is profoundly bullish for the USD Index and profoundly bearish for the PMs, Chairman Jerome Powell will likely avoid quantitative tightening.   For one, if the Fed tries to reduce its balance sheet from 35% to 20% of GDP, the financial markets will freak out. Currently, the Fed has such a large stockpile of bonds that private investors can’t absorb that kind of supply. Thus, another taper tantrum will likely unfold if the Fed tries to ‘normalize’ its balance sheet through the open market. Second, the Fed’s only hawkish goal is to calm inflation. To explain, when inflation was running hot and most Americans bought into the “transitory” narrative, Fed officials exuded confidence. However, when consumer confidence sunk to a 10-year low and inflation became political, the Fed changed its tune. As a result, Powell wants to reduce inflation while tightening as little as possible (3% to 4% inflation may be considered acceptable in 2022). Thus, normalizing the balance sheet is likely a bridge too far.  However, please remember that if quantitative tightening is a ten on the hawkish scale, hitting a seven or an eight is still profoundly bearish for the PMs. To explain, I highlighted on Dec. 20 how San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly had a come-to-Jesus moment. I wrote: Daly – a major dove that urged patience in November – admitted on Dec. 17 that “I have adjusted my stance.” And conducting another interview with The New York Times on Dec. 21, Daly said: “My community members are telling me they’re worried about inflation. What influenced me quite a lot was recognizing that the very communities we’re trying to serve when we talk about people sidelined” from the labor market “are the very communities that are paying the largest toll of rising food prices, transportation prices and housing prices…. “I’m comfortable with saying that I expect us to need to raise rates next year. But exactly how many will it be – two or three – and when will that be – March, June, or in the fall? For me it’s just too early to know, and I don’t see the advantage of a declaration.” However, with her slip of “two or three” rate hikes offering a window into her thought process, it’s clear that more hawkish policy will materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Source: The New York Times To that point, many short and medium-term gold bulls support the narrative that “the Fed is trapped.” For context, we’re bullish on the PMs over the long term. However, we expect sharp medium-term corrections before their uptrends resume.  Moreover, the narrative implies that the Fed can’t tighten monetary policy without crashing the U.S. economy. Thus, Fed officials are “trapped,” and the PMs should soar as inflation runs wild. However, this hyper-inflationist theory is much more semblance than substance.    To explain, adopters assumed that the Fed couldn’t taper its asset purchases without crashing the U.S. economy. However, the Fed tapered, then accelerated the taper, and the U.S. economy remained resilient. Now, the new narrative is that the Fed can’t raise interest rates without crashing the U.S. economy. However, it’s simply misleading.  As evidence, anxiety has increased with U.S. monetary and fiscal spending stuck in reverse/neutral. For example, the Fed is tightening monetary policy and Americans are no longer receiving stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. Moreover, U.S. President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion stimulus package was torpedoed by Senator Joe Manchin. As a result, who knows if it will pass in 2022?  However, while “the Fed is trapped” crew cites these issues as reasons for an economic calamity, they often miss the forest through the trees. For example, while the fiscal spending spree may end, U.S. households are still flush with cash. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks U.S. households’ checkable deposits (data released on Dec. 9). In a nutshell: it’s the amount of money that U.S. households have in their checking accounts and/or demand deposit accounts. If you analyze the vertical ascent on the right side of the chart, you can see that U.S. households have nearly $3.54 trillion in their checking accounts. For context, this is 253% more than Q4 2019 (pre-COVID-19). Likewise, even though U.S. stimulus has disproportionately flowed to the top, the bottom 50% of American households (based on wealth percentiles) still have plenty of money to spend. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the checkable deposits held by the bottom 50% of U.S. households (again, data released on Dec. 9). And with these individuals sitting on nearly $243 billion in cash, it's 142% more than Q4 2019. Finally, it's important to remember that more than 75% of Canada's exports are sent to the United States. And with the former's exports to the latter hitting an all-time high in October (data released on Dec. 7), it's another indicator that U.S. consumer demand remains resilient. Source: Statistics Canada The bottom line? While some investors expect a dovish 180 from the Fed, they shouldn’t hold their breath. With U.S. economic growth still resilient and the U.S. consumer in much better shape than some portray, the Fed can raise interest rates without crashing the U.S. economy. As a result, Powell will likely stick to his hawkish script and forge ahead with rate hikes in 2022. Conversely, the only wild card is the Omicron variant. If the latest strain severely disrupts economic activity, the Fed could slow its roll. However, this is extremely unlikely. For one, the strain’s spread has been violent, but so far, the data shows it’s much milder than Delta. Second, the Fed needs to solve its inflation problem. And with the FOMC’s dot plot and officials’ rhetoric nodding in agreement, they likely realize that a continuation of 6%+ inflation will do more harm to the U.S. economy than raising interest rates. Also, please note that when the Fed called inflation “transitory,” I wrote for months that officials were misreading the data. As a result, I don’t have a horse in this race. However, now they likely have it right. Thus, if investors assume that the Fed won’t tighten, their bets will likely go bust in 2022.   In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Dec. 22, as an FDA approval of Pfizer’s coronavirus treatment pill helped uplift sentiment. However, the next several months will likely test their mettle. With the Fed hawked up and little stopping interest rate hikes in 2022, the pace of the current liquidity drain should surpass the precedent set in 2013/2014. As a result, more downside likely confronts the PMs over the medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold christmas tree?

Gold christmas tree?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 23.12.2021 12:25
Santa Claus is coming to town! What will he give gold: a gift or a rod? During the holiday week, not much happens in the marketplace. Investors focus on two things right now: whether Democrats will be able to pass Biden’s spending bill in the face of Senator Joe Manchin’s opposition, and whether the coronavirus Omicron variant will trigger new restrictions and hamper economic growth. After all, this strain has already become the dominant one in the US, but its effects are not yet known. Like most of 2021, gold has been rubbing against $1,800 this week but did not have the strength to permanently rise above this level. Despite a surge in inflation and very low real interest rates, the yellow metal didn’t rally. Thus, we could say that gold was rather naughty this year and doesn’t deserve gifts from Santa. However, maybe it’s not gold’s fault, but our too high expectations? After all, gold had to compete with cryptocurrencies and industrial metals (or commodities in general), both of which performed exceptionally well during periods of high inflation. Despite all the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing, gold didn’t break down. Hence, it all depends on the perspective. The same applies to historical analyses and forecasts for 2022. The bears compare the current situation with the 2011-2013 period. The 2020 peak looked like the 2011 peak. Thus, after a period of consolidation, we could see a big decline, just as it happened in 2013. On the other hand, gold bulls prefer to compare today with 2015, as we are only a few months away from the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As a reminder, gold bottomed in December 2015, so the hope is that we will see another bottom soon, followed by an upward move. In other words, the bears believe that the replay of the “taper tantrum” is still ahead of us, while the bulls claim that the worst is already behind us.   Implications for Gold Who is right? Of course, me! But seriously: both sides make valid points. Contrary to 2013, the current tapering was well telegraphed and well received by the markets. Thus, the worst can indeed be already behind us. Especially that the 2020 economic crisis was very deep, but also very short, so everything was very condensed. I mean: the Great Recession lasted one and a half years, while the Great Lockdown lasted only two months. The first taper tantrum occurred in 2013, while the first hike in the federal funds rate – at the end of 2015. We won’t wait that long now, so the period of downward pressure on gold prices stemming from expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle will be limited. Having said that, gold bears highlight an important point: real interest rates haven’t normalized yet. As the chart below shows, although nominal bond yields have rebounded somewhat from the August 2020 bottom, real rates haven’t followed. The reason was, of course, the surge in inflation. However, if inflation eases, inflation-adjusted rates will go up. Additional risk here is that the Fed will surprise the markets on a hawkish side. The bottom line is that Santa Claus may bring gold a rod this time. Although gold’s reaction to the recent FOMC meeting was solid, the overall performance of the yellow metal this month is worse compared to the historically strong action in December. I don’t expect a similarly strong downward move as in 2013, but real interest rates could normalize somewhat in 2022, given the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and possible peak in inflation. The level of indebtedness will limit the scope of the move, but it won’t change the direction. Anyway, whether you are a gold bull or a gold bear, I wish you a truly merry and golden Christmas (or just winter holidays)! Let the profits shine, even if gold won’t! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
USDJPY - an interesting pair, a few words about US 100

USDJPY - an interesting pair, a few words about US 100

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.12.2021 10:59
USDJPY breaks higher The US dollar inched higher after November’s core PCE jumped to 4.7%. A break above the supply area near 114.20 indicates that the bulls have gained the upper hand. As sellers rush to the exit, the pair may enjoy solid support above the former resistance at 114.05. An overbought RSI has temporarily limited the initial breakout range. After a short accumulation phase, the bulls may have an unobstructed path towards the psychological level of 115.00. That is a major hurdle right under the previous peak. USDCAD retreats to daily support The Canadian dollar bounces back as GDP growth gained traction in October. The US dollar is struggling for support after its tentative break above the August high at 1.2950. A retreat below 1.2900 has led traders to dump leveraged positions. The pair is testing the daily support at 1.2760 which lies along the 30-day moving average. And this makes it an area of interest for the bulls to attempt a rebound. 1.2920 is a fresh resistance ahead. A deeper correction may send the greenback to 1.2650 near December’s lows. US 100 completes V-shaped recovery The Nasdaq 100 continues to recover as improved economic data outweigh covid concerns. The index has met solid buying interest near 15600. This used to be a supply zone from last September. Since then it has recouped losses from the recent liquidation. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a brief pullback while short-term traders take profit. 16170 is the closest support and 15850 is another layer of defense. On the upside, a break above 16460 could extend the rally to the all-time high at 16770 and beyond.
S&P 500, Nasdaq and more...

S&P 500, Nasdaq and more...

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.12.2021 15:56
S&P 500 and risk-on assets continued rallying, pausing only before the close. Santa Claus delivered, and the final trading week of 2021 is here. With the dollar pausing and VIX at 18 again, we‘re certainly enjoying better days while clouds gather on the horizon – Thursday‘s inability of financials to keep intraday gains while yields rose, is but one albeit short-term sign. The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Importantly, bonds prices aren‘t taking it on the chin, and the dollar hasn‘t made much progress since late Nov. Both tech and value are challenging their recent highs, and the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, is improving. The same for new highs new lows – the market breadth indicators are picking up. We haven‘t seen the stock market top yet – the rickety ride higher isn‘t over, Santa Claus rally goes on, and my 2022 outlook with targets discussed that a week ago. Precious metals are extending gains, and aren‘t yet raging ahead – the picture is one of welcome strength returning across the board. The same goes for crude oil finally rising solidly above $72 as the omicron fears are receding in light of fresh incoming data including South African policies. It‘s only copper that‘s now reflecting the prospects of real economy slowdown. At the same time, the crypto rebound last week served as a confirmation of broad risk-on advance. Still more to come, as per Thursday‘s article title. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is within spitting distance of ATHs, and the bulls haven‘t said the last word in spite of the approaching need to take a rest. It‘s rally on, for now. Credit Markets HYG has finally overcome the Sep highs, but its vulnerability at current levels is best viewed from the point of view of LQD underperformance. Investment grade corporate bonds could have been trading higher compared to the progress made by TLT. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking up, and so are miners – the upswing isn‘t overheated one bit, and can go on as we keep consolidating with an increasingly bullish bias. Crude Oil Crude oil once again extended gains, and even if oil stocks are a little lagging, the medium-term bullish bias in black gold remains. The path of least resistance is once again up. Copper Copper at least closed unchanged – the fresh steep rally indeed seems more than quite a few weeks ahead. But the table for further gains is set. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering the final trading week of 2021 in good shape. The rising tide of liquidity is still lifting all boats in a rather orderly way. Summary Thursday brought a proper finish to the Christmas week, and we‘re not staring at a disastrous finish to 2021 across the board. Short-term extended, but overall very positive bond market performance is aligned, and we can look for positive entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike. Shrinking global liquidity, no infrastructure bill, and consolidating dollar complete the backdrop of challenges that would make themselves heard well before Q2 2022 arrives. I hope you had Merry Christmas once again, and will also enjoy the relatively smooth ride while it lasts – 2022 will be still a good year, but with its fair share of corrections. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
AUDUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY status explained

AUDUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY status explained

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.12.2021 08:43
AUDUSD falls back for support The Australian dollar pulls back as risk assets tread water amid low liquidity. A break above the previous high at 0.7220 reveals a strong bullish bias. However, the RSI’s repeatedly overbought situation may have prompted short-term buyers to take some chips off the table. In turn, this left price action vulnerable to retracement. 0.7200 is the closest support. Its breach would trigger a deeper correction towards 0.7120. A close above 0.7250 may resume the reversal and carry the Aussie to the daily resistance at 0.7360. USDCHF tests consolidation range The US dollar softens over weaker Treasury yields. The pair’s latest rebound has met aggressive selling at the upper bound of the consolidation range near 0.9250. That is a sign of lingering bearish pressure. The greenback is testing the lower bound near 0.9160. Range traders were eager to buy the dip as the RSI ventured into the oversold zone. 0.9210 is an intermediate hurdle leading to the upper limit where a breakout could trigger a bullish reversal towards 0.9350. Otherwise, a drop below 0.9160 may send the pair to 0.9100. EURJPY breaks higher The Japanese yen weakened after Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.8% in November. The long side has gained the upper hand after they pushed above 129.60. A bullish MA cross following a brief consolidation indicates an acceleration in the upward momentum. A break above the psychological level of 130.00 would set 130.60 as the next target, clearing the path for a rally to 131.30. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback. 129.20 from the previous supply zone has become a fresh support.
Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

EUR/USD Forecast: Near-term bullish bias stays intact above 1.1310

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.12.2021 14:54
EUR/USD seems to have settled above key technical level. Hot inflation data from the US helped the dollar limit its losses. Trading conditions in financial markets thin out on Christmas Eve. EUR/USD seems to have steadied around mid-1.1300s on Friday as the trading action turns subdued on Christmas Eve. The near-term bullish outlook remains intact for the pair but thin trading conditions are likely to limit the movements in the remainder of the day. The data published by the US Burau of Economic Analysis revealed on Thursday that the annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, jumped to 4.7% in November from 4.2% in October. This print surpassed the market expectation of 4.2% and helped the dollar stay resilient against its rivals in the second half of the day. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged higher toward 1.5% after the inflation report and according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 53.8% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in March. Bond and stock markets in the US will be closed on Friday and investors will keep an eye on technical levels when they return on Monday. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is moving sideways around 60, suggesting that sellers are showing no interest in the pair for the time being. Additionally, the last four candles on the same chart closed above the 200-period SMA; confirming the bullish bias in the near term. Static resistance seems to have formed at 1.1340 ahead of 1.1360 (post-ECB high on December 16) and 1.1380 (November 30 high). On the downside, support is located at 1.1310 (200-period SMA) and 1.1290 (50-period SMA).
Gold and inflation

Gold and inflation

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 28.12.2021 16:28
High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold. If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022: So high the price of wheat, That man is stirred His fellow man to eat in his despair Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority. Hence, let’s focus on inflation. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This measure of inflation surged 5.7% in the 12 months ended in November, which was the fastest increase since July 1982. Meanwhile, as the chart below shows, the core index, which excludes energy and food, rose 4.7%. It was the highest jump since February 1989. This is very important, as it shows that inflation is not elevated merely by rising energy prices. Instead, it’s more broad-based, which can make inflation more lasting. Indeed, there are strong reasons to expect that high inflation will stay with us in 2022. As the chart below shows, the shelter index – the biggest CPI component – has been rising recently, which should move the whole index up. In other words, surging home prices could translate into higher rents, supporting consumer inflation. Additionally, the Producer Price Index has also been rallying this year. The final demand index rose 9.6% on an annual basis in November, the largest advance since 12-month data was first calculated in late 2010. Moreover, the commodity index surged 23%, and it was the highest jump since November 1974. All this indicates that inflationary pressure remains strong. Implications for Gold To be clear, inflation will eventually peak, and this will probably happen in 2022. This is because a one-time helicopter drop (the surge in the money supply) leads to a one-time jump in the price level. However, inflation is like toothpaste. It’s easy to get it out, but it’s difficult to get it back in again. To use another metaphor, if you wait with your actions until you see the whites of the eyes of a tiger, you can be eaten (sorry for being monothematic today!). This was exactly the Fed’s strategy with the inflationary tiger for most of 2021. Yes, the US central bank accelerated tapering of quantitative easing in December, but it remains behind the curve (or, to continue the metaphor, it’s still holding the tiger by the tail). What does it all mean for the gold market? High inflation should support gold prices. The expectations of a more hawkish Fed probably prevent a big rally, but ultra-low real interest rates are supportive of the yellow metal. However, what is one of my biggest worries for the next year (except for the perspective of being eaten by hungry neighbors) is how gold will react to the peak in inflation. Although inflation will stay elevated, it won’t rise indefinitely. When it peaks, real interest rates could go up, negatively affecting the yellow metal. Of course, one would say that the peak of inflation would be accompanied by a more dovish Fed, so disinflation doesn’t have to hurt gold, just as rising inflation didn’t make it shine. However, this is not so simple, and if inflation stays above 5%, the Fed could still feel obligated to act and bring inflation to its 2% target. Anyway, US monetary policy (together with fiscal policy) will be tighter compared to 2020 and to other major countries, which (together with a likely peak in inflation) creates a rather challenging macroeconomic environment for gold in 2022 (at least until worries about the negative consequences of the Fed’s tightening cycle emerge). If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
PayRetailers joins the American Rugby Super League 2022 as a new Official Sponsor

PayRetailers joins the American Rugby Super League 2022 as a new Official Sponsor

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.12.2021 14:48
PayRetailers, Official Sponsor of the American Rugby Super League 2022 December 20, 2021 PayRetailers, a payment processor for emerging markets in Latin America, announces its partnership with Super League Rugby America (SLAR) as an Official Sponsor for 2022. The expansion and strategy of PayRetailers today allow the announcement that the company joins the portfolio of international companies that support the SLAR and its goal of promoting the further development of South American countries, supporting the sport and financial inclusion in the region. For PayRetailers, this alliance also represents a commitment to each of the countries in South America, guaranteeing speed and security in payments for the end consumers, being fans alike. In addition to continued support of the passion for sports that characterizes Latin Americans, it is also a company that identifies itself with the hobbies and consumption habits of its employees. "The addition of a Fintech (financial and technological company) in full expansion, which seeks to achieve greater financial integration in the region, is something thatfills us with pride," said Guillermo Altmann, Commercial Manager of South America Rugby. SLAR and PayRetailers, as official partners, will collaborate to develop platforms and services that provide benefits and efficiencies for the rugby family, includingticket sales and merchandising. The Superliga Americana de Rugby was founded in 1988 as the South American Rugby Confederation with the objective of promoting the dissemination, development and improvement of amateur rugby in South American countries. About PayRetailers Founded in 2017, PayRetailers is a payment service processor that supports a wide range of payment methods through a single API integration that allows global businesses to market to consumers and increase revenue in Latin America. For merchants looking to expand internationally across certain e-commerce verticals, a clear understanding of consumer behavior and spending in their industry will be the difference between success and failure. By accepting local payment methods, PayRetailers enables anyone to shop online, even if they don't have a credit or debit card. PayRetailers is headquartered in Spain, with regional offices in Malta, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. Contact our team to explore new opportunities: Learn more!
XAUUSD seeks support, NZDUSD consolidates recent gains, EURUSD tests important resistance

XAUUSD seeks support, NZDUSD consolidates recent gains, EURUSD tests important resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.12.2021 08:42
EURUSD tests important resistance The US dollar struggles as the Omicron scare subsides. The pair has been stuck in a narrow range between 1.1230 and 1.1360, because of a lack of liquidity and a catalyst. Following a bounce from 1.1260 price action is testing the upper band of the horizontal consolidation. A bullish breakout would pop up volatility as sellers rush for the exit. An extended rally would set 1.1450 as the next target. On the downside, a fall below 1.1260 may prolong the sideways action for a few more days. NZDUSD consolidates recent gains The New Zealand dollar softens over a limited year-end risk appetite. The latest surge above 0.6830 has put the bears on the defensive. Intraday traders took profit after the RSI showed overextension. The current flag-shaped consolidation could be an opportunity for the bulls to regroup and catch their breath. The demand zone around 0.6760 is a major level to support the rebound. On the upside, 0.6840 on the 30-day moving average is the closest resistance. And its breach may trigger a broader rally towards 0.6920. XAUUSD seeks support Gold edged higher as the US dollar slipped across the board. A close above the supply zone around 1815 is a short-term confirmation that sentiment favors the upside. A bullish MA cross on the hourly chart indicates that the recovery could be picking up steam. Above 1820, 1840 would be the target when momentum makes its way back into the market. In the meantime, buyers may see a retracement to 1803 as an opportunity to buy the dip after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 1790 is a second level of support.
Article by Decrypt Media

S&P 500 rally, comodities and precious metals

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.12.2021 15:49
Broad S&P 500 rally is spilling over to precious metals and commodities – Santa Claus leaves no stone unturned, apparently. Not that yields or the dollar would move much yesterday – it‘s the omicron response relief (thus far. yet APT has risen sharply to counter the bullish and wildly profitable oil message) coupled with the yesterday mentioned market friendly Fed: (…) The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Even though junk bonds retreated from intraday highs, the rally isn‘t over yet – VIX remaining around 18 is the best that the stock bulls can hope for today (i.e. a sluggish day still retaining bullish bias). Financials and industrials had a good day, but consumer discretionaries to staples ratio leaves more than a bit to be desired. The same goes for the financials to utilities ratio. Yes, the horizon is darkening, but further gains for weeks to months to come, still lie ahead. Remember, the topping process is about fewer and fewer sectors pulling their weight, about the market generals not being followed by the troops in the coming advance. We‘re not quite there yet. The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 market breadth again improved – the increasing participation shows that the bull run isn‘t clearly over. And it also reveals that this isn‘t yet the time to expect a new correction. Credit Markets HYG stalled a little, but doesn‘t look to have definitely peaked. One look at LQD reveals the nuanced risk-off turn yesterday, which might not interfere with further stock market gains today though). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver paused, but I‘m treating it as a daily pause in an otherwise developing uptrend. Once the inflation expectations stop being as steady as they had been yesterday, the metals will like that. Crude Oil Crude oil is strongly up, and oil stocks confirm. The $78 zone comes next, and could take a few days to be reached. Copper Copper still hasn‘t arrived at true fireworks – but the long consolidation is being resolved in a bullish way (of course). Broader commodities are showing that the path of least resistance is higher in the red metal as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are foretelling stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. I don‘t think this is a start of a genuine downtrend. Summary Santa Claus rally naturally goes on, and yesterday‘s steep gains are likely to be followed with deceleration today – at least in stocks. Precious metals and commodities are catching up, and we‘re looking at a very positive close to 2021 across the board. The same goes for optimistic entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike – in Bitcoin though, I would like to see today‘s lows hold, and Ethereum to spring higher faster than Bitcoin. On a very short-term basis, S&P 500 and oil are extended today, and some trepidation shouldn‘t be surprising. The medium-term trends remain unchanged, and lead higher. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Do you really need to understand economics to trade Forex successfully?

Do you really need to understand economics to trade Forex successfully?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.12.2021 10:14
The biggest financial market in the world is the forex market. To begin trading Forex, you must have a working grasp of the current state of the global economy. You need to be aware of the significance of this news and happenings in the forex market and how they will affect your transactions. If you want to be at the top of the list, you may invest some time studying what this economic news and activities truly imply in simple words.   Understanding the fundamentals of global economics may aid in your Forex trading success. A wide range of economic variables affects the exchange rates of different currencies all around the globe. The following are some of the factors:   Interest rate changes by a country's central bank Spending by both the government and the general public There is both public and private debt. GDP and CPI are two measures of the economy. a currency's supply of money and demand   The movement of currencies throughout the globe is affected by any change in money flows. Understanding the rules of trading is more important than being an expert in economics. But, having a fundamental comprehension of the economic principles that regulate the movement of money throughout the globe and a high-level understanding of Forex trading as well, would be ideal.   In order to build a strategy that fits your personality it is crucial to be familiar with the market structure, order flow and algorithmic movement. Those people who are new in this industry need to get more information about how to learn forex trading, to avoid losing money and being a victim of financial frauds. For forex traders, there is always a piece of economic data due for publication from at least eight major currencies that may be used to make smart bets. However, It is also worth noting that in reality, the eight most closely watched nations provide statistics on an average of seven days a week (excluding vacations). There are several prospects for people who trade news.   It's more difficult to trade the news than it seems. Both official and unofficial estimates (whispers) and adjustments to earlier reports are critical to determining a consensus figure. According to both the relevance of the nation providing the data and the importance of this release in comparison to other data releases, certain releases are more relevant than others. How To Start Forex Trading - Basic Guide If the value of one currency rises or falls relative to the other, then forex trading is successful.   Even if the price may rise tomorrow, a trader may decide to acquire a currency now and sell it for a profit at a later date. We call this "going long."   Another option is to sell a currency and then purchase it back later at a lower price if they believe its value will fall. Going short is a term for this.   Inflation, interest rates, and political events may all have an impact on the value of a currency. Find a forex broker first to obtain access to the market.   You may establish a forex trading account online after you've chosen a broker and are ready to begin trading.   Before making an investment, it is essential to verify that a broker is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).   The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) maintains an online database of all regulated brokers traders could trust. So, there is a risk that a broker that isn't listed is a fake company that is willing to defraud you for money. That’s the reason why you should always be vigilant and informed while making a choice.   Depending on whether you are buying or selling, the same currency pair will have somewhat different pricing.   There is a bit of a learning curve, but it's worth remembering that prices are always given in terms of the forex broker's viewpoint, rather than yours.   From the viewpoint of a broker, prospective purchasers must make an offer if you are selling currency. Consequently, When you purchase a currency, you'll have to pay the seller's asking price.   Using leverage, traders are able to borrow money from a broker so that they may trade higher quantities of money.   The broker will cover the remainder of your investment once you make a modest initial deposit known as a margin.   Depending on the broker, the amount of leverage available varies. If the investment is successful, leverage may help you enhance your profit, but it's crucial to keep in mind that trading higher quantities of currency can also raise your chance of loss.   Before employing leverage, make sure you understand all of the dangers and potential losses. This is because, unlike conventional investments, where you can only lose your original investment, leverage leaves you exposed to an almost limitless amount of risk.   As currencies fluctuate in value, it's difficult to maintain track of your transactions 24 hours a day in the forex market.   To minimize the danger of losing money if the market does not move in your favor, there are certain automatic methods that you may set up in your forex account   Stop-loss orders restrict the amount of money a trader loses if a currency's value rises over a specified threshold. An investor may select a minimum or maximum price at which they want to purchase or sell a currency pair. When you use limit orders, you don't have to keep an eye on currency rates and automatically purchase or sell a currency when the price reaches your target.   You need to exchange big amounts of money in order to see a profit on the forex market. However, even while leverage raises the amount of currency you trade, it substantially increases the chance of you losing money, so much so that you stand to lose more than your starting capital. So, before you start trading forex, make sure you do your homework and figure out whether you can afford to lose your money.
Are You an Options Buyer or an Options Seller?

Are You an Options Buyer or an Options Seller?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.12.2021 08:20
Options are an increasingly popular financial product that gives traders numerous ways to manage risk while significantly leveraging capital. They are a powerful trading “tool” that can be bought, sold, and combined in a seemingly limitless number of ways to achieve a specific objective. One of the bigger questions for new -- and even experienced traders -- is whether to be an options buyer or seller. Or both.   QUICK REVIEW The price of an option is the sum of intrinsic and extrinsic (time) values. Intrinsic value is the mathematical difference between the option strike price and the price of the underlying.  Extrinsic value is variably priced based on the expected volatility of the underlying and remaining time before the option expires.  Let’s go through some of the pros and cons of buying versus selling options. BUYING OPTIONS Buying options seems like a simple enough strategy. The trader picks a bullish or bearish direction and goes long (buys) a put or a call corresponding to the stock's anticipated directional move. Be sure not to confuse being long an option and being long underlying. For example, if a trader is long a put, due to inverse correlation that is akin to being short the underlying. But being long an option is not as simple or easy as it appears. The first challenge with a long option is being right about the direction of the stock. The underlying has to move in the expected direction for the option to go up in value and possibly generate a profit.  The option buyer also has to be correct about the magnitude of the underlying move. If a trader buys an option and the amount of the move is not greater than what was spent for the time value, the option won't be profitable. For example, if $2 is spent for options time value, but the stock only moves $1, it is quite possible to be right about direction but still not profitable.  Time Value The time value in options is a wasting asset as it will always approach $0 at expiration, so that works in favor of option sellers and against option buyers. Think of time value like an ice cube, melting away slowly at first and then more rapidly. Since all options have a fixed time when they expire, duration is a significant consideration. A trader could be right about the direction and magnitude of the underlying move, but perhaps that doesn't materialize sufficiently during the option's lifetime. So enough time value has to be purchased for the move to happen. And more time value, of course, costs more money. Implied Volatility (IV) There's also the effect of volatility. The time value portion of an option is priced according to the underlying's anticipated (Implied) volatility. If an option is bought when volatility is low, and there is an increase in volatility, that makes the remaining time value portion of the option price more valuable. That can work in the option buyer's favor. But there's also the opposite situation; when an option is purchased when volatility is high, and there is a contraction in volatility. It's important to be able to gauge if option premium is underpriced, overpriced, or "average" priced. Technical tools to do that include charting implied volatility itself and some version of IV Rank where current IV is evaluated as a percentile of the range of IV over some time period, typically one year. So the inherent disadvantages of a long option are the necessity to be correct about direction, magnitude, duration, and possibly implied volatility. These considerations can make the probability of profit with a long option relatively low, often far below 50%. So why buy an option? Simple – unlimited profit potential! Long options can generate outsized profits when the trader is right about direction, magnitude, and duration. When does it make sense to use a long option? When a significant move in a stock is expected. When there’s a trend. When there’s a reversal in a range. When there’s a breakout (up or down). Solid technical analysis and a keen sense of the specific market are key success factors. SELLING OPTIONS For every buyer of an option, there is a seller (counterparty). Option sellers take on an obligation to either buy or sell and stock in return for collecting a premium.  There are a couple of disadvantages to selling options. The premium collected is the maximum profit possible. Selling an option also comes with a possibly substantial obligation to buy or provide stock. There are ways to reduce and manage that obligation risk, such as structuring trades as either vertical or calendar spreads, and these and others will be the subject of many future posts. So why sell an option? Probability of profit! Depending on how an option selling trade is structured, it’s possible to have a very high probability of success, sometimes 80% or more. It can be quite a bit easier to generate consistent, albeit smaller, profits with selling options. So, in summary, buying options come with an inherently low probability of an unlimited profit. Selling options come with a relatively high probability of a modest profit.  What do I do? Both. But I tend to be an option seller much more often than an option buyer. That better suits my personal style in trying to generate consistent profits for income. Other traders and investors with different objectives may find a different approach works best for them. Want to learn more about Options Trading? Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.    If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to check it out, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com. Enjoy your day! Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Market StrategistTheTechnicalTraders.com
AM Market Digest: December 1, 2021

AM Market Digest: December 1, 2021

Jessica Amir Jessica Amir 01.12.2021 08:33
Equities 2021-12-01 00:00 7 minutes to read Summary:  Hello December...Traditionally the second most bullish month for equites with the ASX200 rising 1.7% on average in December (since 1993/inception), while the S&P500 index has risen 1.5% on average (since 1950). Now the question is, will this December be different? Probably yes, as there is much uncertainty; markets are weary of Omicron (awaiting vaccine makers to develop a new vaccine), while retail sales are growing slower than expected (going against the grain as sales generally ramp up this time of year). So what’s next? We cover what to watch today and potential trading considerations. So volatility is indeed picking up right? And add in the fact that US Fed Chair said overnight, that the bond-buying taper process could wrap up “few months sooner than expected”…which opens the door to interest rates hikes thereafter. Powell also said “it’s probably a good time to retire” the world “transitory” to describe inflation. While global equities remain on tender hooks, keep an eye on volatility, and consider possible hedges. Iron ore breaks above its 30-DMA for the first time since 26 October. Watch the Aussie dollar with GPD data ahead. Markets and what you need to know    Equites: In the US: The Dow Jones fell 1.8%, the S&P500 lost 1.9%. Apple rose 3.1%. Pfizer rose 2.5% Salesfore.com fell 4%. Travellers fell 3.6% In Europe: the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.1%, the FTSE 100 down 0.7%. Yesterday most Asian markets fell, with the Australian market being the exception, rising 0.2% Commodities: Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,775.45, erasing gains after Powell’s comments on Taper, Inflation Keep an eye on Newcrest (NCM AU), Northern Star (NST AU), Evolution (EVN AU), Regis Resources (RRL AU), Resolute Mining (RSG AU), OZ Minerals (OZL AU):  WTI crude down 5.4% Oil Falls Below $65 With Powell signaling faster end to tapering Keep an eye on Woodside (WPL AU), WorleyParsons (WOR AU), Oil Search (OSH AU), Beach Energy (BPT AU), Karoon (KAR AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Santos (STO AU):  Copper down 1.4% Iron ore fell 0.4% after rising 6.8% the prior day Keep an eye on BHP (BHP AU), Rio Tinto (RIO AU) and Fortescue (FMG AU) Currencies: Aussie down 0.4% to 0.7118 per US dollar (Australia, NZ dollars record biggest monthly drops since pandemic) Kiwi down 0.1% to 0.6817 per US dollar Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield fell 6.2bps to 1.4375% Company News: Volvo Cars shares rose 13.6%; The company released first quarterly property since listing on the stock market a year ago and confirm a dip in revenue and profit. Volvo also flagged the sector-wide semiconductor shortage would continue into next year Apple shares +3.1% after reported Best Apple Cyber Monday. The tech giant is also working on a charger that powers multiple devices, an iPhone, AirPods, and Watch simultaneously. Orocobre shares rose 6% to a record high. Trading volume quadruped. The company expects lithium demand to grow materially through to 2040 due to electric vehicle adoption amid the global transition to carbon neutrality. This is expected to lead to a widening deficit over the next two decades, with demand predicted to be more than twice as great as supply by 2040. Major news, in case you missed it; Australian borders won’t reopen today (1 December), they’ll reopen 15 December Moderna CEO says current vaccines are less effective against new variant and it may take months before a new variant-specific jab is at scale. The World Health Organization said Omicron presents as ‘very high global risk’. Latest economic news: In Australia: The Australian economy is slowing: Private credit grew less than expected; showing Aussies are businesses borrowing less (credit grew 0.5% in October, vs 0.6% expected). Consumer confidence fell on a weekly basis In Asia – China’s manufacturing unexpected grew in November. First rise in activity since Aug. Japan industrial output rose for first time in four months, auto production rebounds on an easing of supply constraints Considerations for today and what to watch Volatility: New information is driving the markets short term direction, so keep an eye out. We’re in an illiquid part of the season, so volatility is high at the moment with news dictating the market moves. Some fund managers are taking money off the table and increasing their hedging To minimise volatility you could consider hedging for the next couple of weeks; perhaps consider currency options which is what we are seeing some clients trade at the moment, they are Buying dollar yen. Iron ore:  The Iron ore price to surged to a one month high, rising back above $100. Also of note, we are seeing clients increasing buy iron ore stocks (Fortescue, BHP and Rio Tinto). What’s new: Brazilian iron ore giant, Vale lowered its production outlook for year, while Rio Tinto announced it sees demand stabilizing is 2022 and underlying demand remaining robust expecting, China to take action to avoid a property hard land. Basically it seems iron ore supply will be coming out of market (from Vale), and demand is picking up in China. From a technical perspective, the iron ore price has held above its 15 and 30 day average, while the MACD technical indicator suggest that buying could pick up again in iron ore. This is definitely something to watch. It appears the 15 day moving average could also cross above the 30 day moving average, which would trigger a gold cross event, a technical event that often results in a bull run forming/continuing as quant traders/investors typically buy into positions when such an event occurs.   Source: TradingView, Saxo Markets Events to watch today: Local: Australian GPD data out 11:30am - expected to show Australian GPD slowed YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 9.6%. QoQ, est. -2.7%, prior 0.7%. So keep an eye on the Australian dollar. If the data is weaker than expected the Aussie dollar would likely fall US tonight: November ADP employment, November MBA purchase index, November ISM manufacturing PMI, crude oil inventories, Federal Chair Jerome Powell testimony What else? OPEC meets on Thursday - we could see production cuts, which could cause a rally in oil   Australian analyst rating changes to consider: CKF: Collins Foods Cut to Neutral at Jarden Securities; PT A$14.16 FMG: Fortescue Cut to Neutral at Citi GNC: GrainCorp Cut to Sell at Bell Potter; PT A$6.15 HPG: Hipages Group Rated New Overweight at Barrenjoey; PT A$4.65 JHX: James Hardie GDRs Rated New Overweight at Barrenjoey; PT A$63 TPG: TPG Telecom Rated New Overweight at Barrenjoey; PT A$7.50 TSI: Top Shelf International Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord   Ex-Dividends today on ASX:  Incitec Pivot, United Malt, Aristocrat Leisure
Meaning Of The Bull Market - The Opposition To The Bear One

Thanksgiving bull market called off?

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 23.11.2021 17:15
Maybe the Thanksgiving week will not be so joyful on the Stock market this year.Yesterday the US Stock market started out bright only for Sellers to take control shortly after the opening bell. Buyers tried to lift Nasdaq 100 above the upper rising trend line but couldn’t hold it.A big bearish Engulfing candle yesterday formed under heavy volume on Nasdaq 100 taking out the previous two day’s of positive trading closing below Thursday open.We now have RSI divergence confirmed on RSI and MACD which indicates further sell-offs can be seen next few days. To reverse the correction picture a close above yesterdays’ high is needed.Support at 15.950 can be tested. S&P 500 peaked within few cents from the upper rising trend line the possible target I mentioned yesterday at 4.755. We should expect more selling pressure. Support at 4.630. A close below could fuel further sell-offs down to around 4.551
The battle for commerce with express deliveries

The battle for commerce with express deliveries

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2021 09:58
Warsaw, 15.12.2021 Several companies on our market are already developing their dark store networks, which allow for the delivery of food products within a dozen or so minutes from the order, and new shopping platforms announce their entry onto the Polish market. Things are getting very competitive in the quick commerce segment Quick commerce, which is a segment of express deliveries of basic food products, beverages, sweets, household chemicals and cosmetics, is a format that is now enjoying popularity, both in our country and around the world. Dark stores, distribution microcenters used only to handle orders placed on-line, already operate in the seven largest cities in our country. Due to the limited selection, covering from 1000 to 2000 products, they can’t compete with large retail chains and standard on-line shops offering a huge range of goods. However, they constitute direct competition to small local stores intended for quick, spontaneous shopping to meet the immediate needs. Even so, competition is difficult here due to the narrow range of products. - The development of this form of retail, which guarantees instant deliveries to the customer, favors the strong trend of convenience, related to the expectation of comfortable and easy access to goods. This trend became even more popular during the lockdown. The formula for deliveries within 10-15 minutes, however, requires the creation of a network of properly profiled distribution facilities scattered throughout the city. Dark stores resemble supermarkets measuring several hundred meters, usually from 200 sq m. up to 400 sq m, which are arranged in such a way that the individuals completing the order can efficiently move between the shelves and collect the products in the shortest possible time. They resemble shops, but act as warehouses for storing goods - explains Piotr Szymonski, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz. Free delivery up to 2:00 am Q-commerce on a larger scale began to develop in Poland only this year. The service is popular with a large group of customers. Dark stores offer goods at prices similar to traditional retail outlets. Orders are delivered 7 days a week, also on non-trading Sundays. Lisek, operating in Warsaw, Cracow, Wroclaw, Gdansk, Poznan and Katowice, ensures delivery up to 10 minutes. Completely free delivery is available at JOKR. At Jush, orders over PLN 35 get delivery free of charge. Recent months have brought not only a rapid development of this format in Poland, but also announcements of new large players entering our market. From week to week, companies operating in this segment are expanding their range of activities, providing their service to further city districts. Meanwhile, the express delivery market is already getting crowded. Dark store chains of the first platforms that appeared in Poland, such as Lisek, Jokr, and GetnowX, are growing. The number of Biedronka's distribution points for the Biedronka Express BIEK service, which from this October is being offered in collaboration with Glovo, is growing at a fast pace. This is the second platform that, just like the Lisek App, also functions outside the capital. Deliveries from dark stores scattered in Warsaw, Lodz, Cracow, Gdansk, Poznan and Wroclaw are made within a 2 km radius in a quarter of an hour. Distribution microcenters work throughout the week from 8am to 11pm, and in Warsaw on Fridays and Saturdays even until 2 am. Zabka Future Group chose the Lite E-Commerce start-up, which aims to create new modern convenience solutions. The company has recently decided to launch dark stores and fast food deliveries via the Jush app. This October, Zabka Jush launched in Warsaw. They also plan expansion into the other cities. New purchasing platforms are getting ready to take off in Poland Although the Swyft platform has temporarily suspended its operations after six months, the companies present on our market will soon gain considerable competition. Such companies as Gorillas and Grovy have announced their debuts in Poland. Gorillas, a German start-up specializing in instant deliveries from its own stores-warehouses, forms a project management team in our country. The company, with value that exceeding USD 1 billion just a few months after its establishment, is expanding in Europe. It operates in 15 cities in Germany, as well as in the Netherlands, Great Britain, France, Italy and Belgium. It also made its debut in New York, which will become a hub for the development of the network in the United States. Grovy is also getting ready to enter the Polish market. The platform has already been offering services in the largest cities in Germany and Romania. Now the start-up plans to enter the Polish, Czech and Hungarian markets. Glovo and Wolt specialize in deliveries from various stores. On our market, Glovo cooperates with Biedronka, and in its native Spain, Italy, Portugal, Romania and Ukraine, it operates on the basis of its own distribution facilities. Wolt, on the other hand, wants to launch its Wolt Market, a network of independent virtual supermarkets, in Poland, as it has in the Czech Republic, Denmark and Hungary. Wolt Market is intended to operate only as a dark store and fulfill online orders placed via the Wolt app. The company has launched their first virtual stores in Finland and Greece. One of the first Wolt Market stores also operates in the center of Warsaw. The market is open from 8 am to 11 pm, 7 days a week, and orders over PLN 150 are delivered free of charge within a 1.5 km radius. Soon, Bolt's dark stores are to open in Warsaw. Bolt is another company to offer delivery of goods purchased online within 15 minutes of placing the order. So far, the premiere Bolt Market has been launched only in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. Pyszne.pl, belonging to the Dutch group Just Eat Takeaway, is also considering extending its services to delivering groceries. However, they do not plan to create their own network of dark stores, but to cooperate with the other stores. Dark stores not in every location - Creating a network of distribution microcenters is a big challenge. The facilities must meet the appropriate location conditions that allow for the rapid shipping of goods. They have to enable express completion of the order from its submission to delivery to the customer's door. Developers of dark stores are looking for space located next to large residential areas in most districts of Warsaw, also in those more distant from the center and in other large cities. They are located not only in commercial buildings, but also on the ground floors of office buildings. The format's potential is best demonstrated by the interest shown by many companies that plan to implement projects on our market - says Piotr SzymoÅ„ski. - The selection of location for dark stores should be based on an analysis of the range and availability of the location, as well as the demographic and transportation aspect. Prospective regions for distribution networks are also those city areas where the implementation of a large number of residential projects is scheduled in the near future. Of course, the technical aspects of the premises should also be taken into account, such as the load-bearing capacity of the ceiling or the ability to charge electric vehicles, which are often used by couriers - adds Piotr SzymoÅ„ski. Market analysis concludes that the constantly growing popularity of online purchases will mean that by 2026, in just 6 years, the value of online sales in Poland will double. Forecasts indicate that the e-commerce sector is facing a period of regular growth. There is still a lot of space for the development of e-commerce in our country. The segment will increase its market share, not only by disseminating new sales formats, but also by increasing the number of online stores operating in our country. In Poland, there are even several times less of them per 1000 inhabitants, compared to some EU countries. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Warsaw office market with good prospects for the future

Warsaw office market with good prospects for the future

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.11.2021 15:53
More expensive offices in Warsaw, is it possible in a pandemic? - There are over 370 thousand sq m. of office space under construction in Warsaw. They are to be commissioned in the period between 2021 and 2024. This is less than half of the offices built in the recent years, before 2020. The Warsaw market slowed down significantly. Moreover, the level of new office construction is at a record low, while more than twice as much office space is being built on the regional markets. It should not be expected that this will change in the next 2-3 years. Developers have not been announcing the implementation of new projects - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Partner / Head of Regional Markets w Walter Herz. – According to our estimates, in 2021 in total almost 340 thousand sq m. of offices will be completed. In 2022, if the deadlines are met, the office resources in Warsaw have a chance to increase by just over 220 thousand sq m. of space. In the years 2023-2024, the first stage of Studio project by Skanska and The Bridge investment by Ghelamco are to be commissioned. They are among the few investments that investors have decided to build this year – adds Mateusz Strzelecki. Meanwhile, as Mateusz Strzelecki points out, in recent months we have been able to observe the resurgence of tenant activity, which in the third quarter of this year, resulted in a one third higher lease volume than in the same period last year. - This bodes well for the Warsaw market, the future of which looks bright. What is more, there is a noticeable increase in interest in renting by companies from the modern business services sector and those operating in the modern technology segment. The decisions of most companies to lease larger space than previously occupied are also a good prognosis. Only every tenth tenant has decided to reduce space this year - says Mateusz Strzelecki. The expert notes that if the demand continues in an upward trend, and developers continue to withhold further projects in the next two years, we can expect not only a decrease in the level of office vacancies in Warsaw, but also an increase in market rates. – In the upcoming quarters, we may have to deal with an increase in prices of flexible space operators due to their current high occupancy - adds Mateusz Strzelecki. Today, the Warsaw market offers 6.16 million sq m. of modern office space. As a result of its pre-pandemic, rapid growth, modern office buildings are now being completed. This year, over a dozen investments have been commissioned, including Warsaw Unit by Ghelamco (59 thousand sq m.), Skyliner by Karimpol (48,9 thousand sq m.), Generation Park Y by Skanska (47,6 thousand sq m.), Galwan and Plater office buildings in Fabryka Norblina belonging to Capital Park Group (40 thousand sq m.) as well as Widok Towers by Commerz Real and S+B Gruppe (28,6 thousand sq m.). Over 12 per cent of offices are awaiting tenants in Warsaw. The vacancy rate increased by less than 3 percent during this year. Noteworthy, however, is the high level of commercialization of modern facilities that entered the market. According to Walter Herz, three-quarters of space in the office buildings is secured with pre-let contracts, which indicates a high demand for work space of the highest standard. Companies are making decisions more and more boldly, as evidenced by the overwhelming share of new contracts in the total lease volume. In addition, as much as 60 per cent of space contracted in Warsaw in the first three quarters of this year, has been leased in buildings located in the very center of the city, which hosts top-class office buildings. This goes hand in hand with the increase in the social function of offices. Despite the consolidation of new work models, the offices retained the status of the central place of management. After a year and a half of experience with remote work, employers opt for a traditional, stationary model of work. It turned out that working in teams and exchanging knowledge between people is much more effective in direct contact than in a remote system. In addition, the office is irreplaceable when it comes to building relationships and community, as well as a sense of belonging to the team. In order to convince employees to return to their offices, companies must, however, remodel the space so that it provides the greatest possible comfort, friendly atmosphere and diversity, and is more flexible. The analysis shows that Warsaw offices are now about 40-50 per cent full. The next months will bring further changes in the way of using the workspace. Certainly, the is a visible trend to limit permanent workstations, so that one can use the entire office freely and stay in constant contact with other people. It will also become very important to use digital solutions to increase efficiency and support the well-being of employees. The key will be, among others, using appropriate applications and creating special zones dedicated to remote communication, which will guarantee high-quality, stable connection. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Financial Sector May Rally 11% - 15% Higher Before End Of January 2022

Financial Sector May Rally 11% - 15% Higher Before End Of January 2022

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 11.12.2021 10:25
The financial sector is poised for a very strong rally into the end of 2021, and early 2022 as revenues and earnings for Q4:2021 should continue to drive an upward price trend. The US Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low. At the same time, the US consumer continues to drive home purchases and holiday shopping. Strong economic data should drive Q4 results for the financial sector close to levels we saw in Q3:2021. If that happens, we may see a robust rally in the US Financial sector over the next 45 to 60+ days. The strength of the recent rally in the US major indexes shows just how powerful the bullish trend bias is right now. Some traders focus on the downside risks associated with the US Federal Reserve actions and/or the concerns related to inflation and global markets. I, however, continue to focus on the strength in the US major indexes and various sector trends that show real opportunities for profits. Comparing Sector Strength The following two US market sector charts highlight the performance over the last 12 vs. 24 months. I want readers to pay attention to how flat the Financial Sector has stayed since just before the 2020 COVID event and how the Financial Sector has started to trend higher over the past 12 months. This is because the shock of COVID briefly disrupted consumer activity. Yet, consumers are coming back strong, driving retail sales, home sales, and the continued strong US economic data. Therefore, it makes sense that the Financial sector should continue to show firm revenue and earnings growth while the US consumer is active and spending. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Over the past two years, Discretionary, Technology, and Materials drove market growth compared to other sectors. Remember, the initial COVID virus event disrupted market sector trends over the last 24+ months. (Source: StockChart.com) Taking a look at this 1 Year US Market Sector chart shows how various sectors have rebounded and how the Discretionary and Materials sectors have flattened/weakened. Pay attention to how the Energy and Real Estate sectors have been over the past 12 months. Also, pay attention to how the Financial sector is strengthening. I believe that the continued deflation/deleveraging that is taking place throughout most of the world will continue to drive global central banks to stay relatively neutral regarding rising interest rates. This will likely prompt an easy money policy throughout most of 2022 and drive continued revenues/earnings for sectors associated with consumers' engagement with the economy. If inflation weakens into 2022 while wage and jobs data stays strong, we may see more moderate strength in the Financial, Healthcare, Discretionary, and Technology sectors over the next 6 to 12+ months. Read more about Global Deleveraging Here: Delivering Covid Bubble Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Markets (Source: StockChart.com) Financials May Pop 11% Or More Over The Next 6+ Months This Weekly IYG, IShares US Financial Service ETF, highlights the recent sideways price trend in the Financial sector and the potential for a 9% to 13% rally that may take place as the markets shift into focus for the Q4:2021 earnings. Yes, inflation is still a concern, but as long as the US consumer continues spending and engaging in the economy, the Financial Services and US Banks should show strong returns. If the US markets rally into the end of 2021, possibly reaching new all-time highs again, this trend may carry well into 2022 and drive Q4:2021 and Q1:2022 revenues and earnings for the Financial sector even higher. This Weekly XLF chart shows a very similar setup to IYG. I firmly believe the recent fear in the markets related to the US Federal Reserve, the new COVID variants, and the global markets deleveraging process is missing one critical component – the strength of the US markets and the strength of the US Dollar. As the rest of the world struggles to find support and economic strength, the US markets continue to rebound on the strength of the US consumer, the recovering economy, and the growth of these sectors. As long as the US Federal Reserve does not disrupt this trend, I believe Q1:2022 could be much more robust than many people consider. I also think the deflation/deleveraging process will work to take the pressures away from recent inflation trends. What could this mean for 2022? Early 2022 may well work as a "rebalancing" process for the global markets – possibly taking the pressures away from the strength in energy, commodities, and staple products/materials. This means pricing pressures will decrease while consumers are still earning and spending. The Financial sector should benefit from these trends over the next 6+ months. Watch for the Financials to start to increase throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022. There are many ways to consider trading this move, but ideally, I think the rally will take place before the end of February 2022. Q1 is usually relatively strong, so that this trend may last well into April/May 2022. It all depends on what happens that could disrupt the current market sector trends. If nothing happens to disrupt the strength of the US Dollar and the strength of the US markets, then I believe the Financial Sector has a very strong opportunity for at least 10% to 11% growth. Want to learn more about the potential for a financial sector rally? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP - Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist
S&P 500's rally to be continued?

S&P 500's rally to be continued?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 29.12.2021 15:31
  Stocks slightly extended their rally yesterday and the S&P 500 reached new all-time high above the 4,800 level. But will the uptrend continue? The broad stock market index lost 0.10% on Tuesday, Dec. 28, as it fluctuated following the recent record-breaking rally. The broad stock market is now way above its local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a Santa Claus rally. The new record high is at 4,807.02. Now we may see a consolidation or a downward correction. The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower this morning. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following this year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level remains at around 4,800. On the other hand, the support level is now at 4,740-4,750, marked by the previous highs. The S&P 500 broke above its two-month long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Below the November High Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index is relatively weaker than the broad stock market’s gauge as it is still trading below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. The recent rally in stocks was driven by a handful of stocks and the technology stocks were just retracing their recent declines. However, the Nasdaq 100 broke above the resistance level of 16,400. Apple’s Market Cap Gets Close to $3 Trillion Again Apple stock got back close to its Dec. 13 record high of $182.13. The nearest important resistance level is at $180-182. The stock remains above its two-month long upward trend line. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, however, the market may be trading within a medium-term topping pattern. It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will most likely fluctuate following the recent record-breaking rally. We may see some profit trading action and a consolidation along the 4,800 level. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, there are some short-term overbought conditions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 will likely fluctuate following the recent rally. We may see a consolidation or a downward correction at some point. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBPUSD consolidates gains, GER 40 breaks above daily resistance, USOIL seeks support

GBPUSD consolidates gains, GER 40 breaks above daily resistance, USOIL seeks support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.12.2021 08:24
GBPUSD consolidates gains Growing risk appetite weighs on a safer US dollar. The rally above 1.3360 confirms that short-term sentiment has turned around. However, the push might have run out of steam as the RSI shows a bearish divergence. The deceleration indicates limited buying interest after the price went parabolic. 1.3400 is an immediate support. Its breach could trigger a correction and force the latest buyers out. Then 1.3300 would be the next support. 1.3500 is a major resistance from the daily chart. GER 40 breaks above daily resistance The Dax 40 climbed higher as investors favor value stocks in telecoms, transportation, and utilities. A break above December’s high at 15840 is a strong signal that the bulls may have had the last word. Trend followers would jump in, in anticipation of continuing above the psychological level of 16000. The RSI’s overbought situation could prompt intraday buyers to take profit. The previous resistance 15700 (now turned support) is the first level to evaluate buying interest. 15500 is the second support in case of a deeper pullback. USOIL seeks support WTI crude rallied after the EIA report showed a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. The bulls are looking to hold onto their recent gains after they cleared the 30-day moving average and daily resistance at 73.20. 79.00 from November’s sharp sell-off is a major hurdle ahead. A bullish breakout could put the rally back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a brief pullback. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is an area of interest as it coincides with the previous low at 72.60.
Rallying, singing "Jingle Bells", S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails

Rallying, singing "Jingle Bells", S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.12.2021 16:25
S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week. Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a significant risk-off turn (yet) – instead, we appear to be on the doorstep of another rotation, and its depth would be determined by how well tech is able to hold near current levels. Looking at precious metals, commodities and cryptos, the sellers of this risk-on rally have good odds of closing in the black for today. Earliest signs of stabilization would come from bonds, tech and cryptos – that‘s where I‘m mostly looking today. Keeping in mind the big picture – all eyes on upcoming Fed balance sheet data: (…) The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 saw a shot across the bow, and it remains to be seen whether the bears take advantage of a promising position to strike later today. Odds are they would at least try. Credit Markets HYG‘s hammer-style candle on rising volume doesn‘t bode well for today. Stabilization in junk bonds would be a most welcome sign once it arrives. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver aren‘t at all well positioned in the short-term – higher yields perhaps accompanied by consolidating inflation expectations, provide the bears with an opportunity. Crude Oil Crude oil is likewise stalling, but not too vulnerable unless fresh omicron fears return to the headlines. The $78 zone indeed looks to take a few days to be reached – I‘m still not looking at this week really. Copper Copper is taking a cautious stance – cautious, not panicky. Building a base not too far from yesterday‘s lows, would be most constructive now. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are feeling the pinch, and the Ethereum underperformance has foretold stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. Genuine downtrend hasn‘t yet developed – the bulls are being tested as we speak. Summary Santa Claus rally is getting the announced reprieve – the day of decision how far it reaches, is today. Unless bonds (I‘m looking at the junk spectrum mainly), tech and cryptos weaken inordinately much, today‘s move would come in the sideways consolidation category. Odds for that are slightly better than a coin toss, but regardless, I‘m looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds. It‘s also positive that oil remains well bid above $75.50, and copper above $4.40. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The FBS 2021 Year in Review

The FBS 2021 Year in Review

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 30.12.2021 12:49
FBS, an international trading broker, sums highlight of this outgoing year up. In 2021, the world was tested once again, demonstrating our resilience and ability to overcome challenges. Despite all difficulties, the FBS yearly results turn to be great. In this light, FBS has prepared a special video to share its achievements with everyone. The year of new heights It was a vivid year for FBS, which has become even more powerful thanks to its new traders and partners. Currently, 21 000 000 traders joined FBS. Also, FBS clients opened over 500 800 000 orders and earned $740 864 599 during 2021. The annual total trading volume of FBS is $8 974 589 830 000. The numbers are really huge and show the broker’s reliability and prosperity. The year of cooperation FBS has widened its collaboration with talented and outstanding people united by common goals and vision. In May 2021, FBS became the Official Principal Partner of Leicester City Football Club. The partnership commemorates the mutual vision of the two teams. The growing strength of Leicester City and the unique capabilities of FBS to make trading accessible to everyone yielded results. The various joint contests and interesting activities were held for FBS clients and LCFC fans. And it is only the start of this three-year journey. In addition, FBS found a new brand ambassador, Kan Kantathavorn in South East Asia. Famous Thai actor, host, and model has the same ideas and values. Thus, FBS and Mr. Kan aspire to give people more free time to do great things and be with family by earning on trading. A global media campaign started in September 2021 with fascinating videos devoted to the FBS products and promises to bring even more. The year of kindness FBS never stands aside when it comes to making the world a better place. That is why FBS donates money for charity every year. And 2021 was no exception. This year, FBS keeps fulfilling its traders’ dreams and gives people opportunities to grow themselves and help others in Dreams Come True. One of the FBS traders’ dreams was to support low-income mothers. And FBS sent special kits of clothes and necessities for newborns to its trader who helps those in need since childhood. He has already delivered the packages to several hospitals in the south of Bogota. Now the newborns are surrounded by care, and their moms can breathe a sigh of relief. This event showed how important it never stop dreaming. Thus, FBS share the greatest power of all. The power of helping others. The year of rebranding FBS keeps improving, becoming more digital and up-to-date to provide clients with the best service possible. Each fresh design element, such as logos, colors, fonts, or blocks, has its meaning to highlight every FBS product’s uniqueness and make them more recognizable and manageable for users. The renewed brand style marks the beginning of an even more client-oriented era in FBS history. The world is developing, more innovations come and go, but something stays unchanged – broker’s gratitude to each trader. The year of trendy features This year, FBS has strengthened the efficiency of its products. Just in 2021, 8 000 000 new traders joined FBS Personal Area while FBS Trader, an all-in-one trading platform, crossed 5 000 000 downloads and new traders. Being among the financial market leaders, FBS improved opportunities for stock traders. That is why the list of instruments was steadily updated with new stocks to diversify the portfolio easily. Recently added stocks are listed on London Stocks Exchange and Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Also, FBS Trader were updated with Economic Calendar to trade Forex in the most convenient way. Now traders can explore all economic events with no need to google news. FBS couldn’t ignore the growing crypto market. So, in the FBS Trader app, a Crypto account was launched to trade crypto anytime and try more than a hundred crypto assets. Also, the list is constantly updated with the new and popular crypto like Shiba Inu, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more. As per clients’ request, trading indicators, Moving Average and Bollinger Bands, were added to FBS Trader. This year pushed the app to a new level. In addition, FBS enhanced the learning section and educational materials. Now traders of any level can study trading basics or boost existing skills in the FBS website using special video lessons prepared by financial analysts. Also, FBS launched new Forex courses divided by levels to cover all topics in a few lessons. All the materials, which are articles and webinars, are published daily, and traders can get access to them free. The year of socializing FBS became more integrated into social media in 2021. This year Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube channels of FBS Europe were actively spread useful strategies, hot news that made the market volatile, and a variety of contests. The contest’s winners got signed merch by LCFC and more exclusive gifts. Next year promises to bring even more interesting activities and trading secrets to the FBS Europe’s subscribers. The year of awards Considering the fruitful year for FBS, new awards were not long in coming. Of course, the experts noticed these achievements. FBS came to the top once again and was awarded by Global Banking & Finance Review and The European Global Banking & Finance Awards with: Best Trading Platform Asia 2021 Best Forex Broker Thailand 2021 Best Mobile Trading Platform Europe 2021 Best Social Trading Platform Indonesia 2021 Best Mobile Copy Trading Application LATAM Best Trading Broker in South East Asia 2021 So, these awards are points of the broker’s reliability and versatility because FBS met all the professional judging panel criteria. The 2021 year brought a lot of events to the big FBS family, motivating a broker to hit new records!
2022 and Gold

2022 and Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 30.12.2021 17:54
  2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope… Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess. What about me? Well, I correctly predicted in January that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”. However, I expected more bullish behavior. I thought that rising inflation would be more supportive of gold prices. I’m fully aware that gold is not a perfect inflation hedge, but historical analysis suggests that high and accelerating inflation should be positive for gold prices. After all, inflation lowers the real interest rates, the key fundamental factor in the gold market. However, rising inflation has prompted the Fed to tighten its monetary policy and speed up the tapering of its quantitative easing. Expectations of hikes in the federal funds rate in 2022 also strengthened. In consequence, as the chart below shows, bond yields rose, especially those short- and medium-term, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Thus, we’ve learned two important lessons in 2021: don’t just count on inflation, and don’t fight with the (hawkish) Fed. As you can see, bond yields haven’t returned to their pre-pandemic level yet. Although they don’t have to fully recover, they do have room for further increases. The issue here is that when inflation peaks and disinflation starts, inflation expectations could decline, boosting the real interest rates. Actually, market-based inflation expectations already peaked in November, as shown in the chart below. This indicates that worries about inflation had calmed and investors had regained some confidence in the US central bank’s ability to contain upward price pressure.   Implications for Gold Will 2022 be better for gold than 2021? It’s possible, but I’m not an optimist. I mean here: macroeconomic conditions will turn more bearish for gold. Despite the spreading of Omicron variant of coronavirus, 2022 could mark the end of the global Covid-19 epidemic with a full economic recovery and a return to normal conditions. Fiscal policy will tighten, while the Fed will adopt a more hawkish monetary policy than in 2021. Supply shocks are easing, so inflation may peak, while real interest rates go up further. Moreover, the US dollar may strengthen against the euro, as the ECB is slower with its monetary policy tightening. On the other hand, there are also some factors that could support gold prices. In 2021, GDP rebounded greatly after the economic crisis of 2020, and financial markets also recovered robustly. 2022 may be more challenging for economic growth and the financial sector, though. One thing is the base effect, while another is central banks’ policy normalization and rising interest rates. With massive public and private debts, the Fed’s tightening cycle could deflate asset and credit bubbles and even trigger a recession, or at least a market correction. However, there are no signs of market stress yet, so a financial crisis is not in my baseline scenario for the next year. 2023 (or even later) is a more probable timeframe. Hence, I believe that the end of 2022 may be better for gold than the beginning of the year, as mere expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle could be replaced by worries about the consequences of interest rate hikes. Anyway, 2021 is (almost) dead. Long live 2022! I wish you a return to normalcy, shining profits and all the golden next year! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Crude Oil ahead of 2022

Crude Oil ahead of 2022

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 30.12.2021 17:54
  Omicron did a bit of a mess at the end of 2021, with oil too. Will crude oil break new price records in the New Year 2022? What do you guys reckon? Market Updates Yesterday, crude oil prices ended modestly higher after a volatile session with amplitudes increased by closing trades, as US crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels – more than expected – which is a positive sign for demand. Commercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell more than expected last week, recording the third consecutive significant decline on the back of strong demand, according to figures released yesterday by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). On the other hand, the overall volatility is mainly due to the possible impact of the Omicron variant on demand; projects, commutations, as well as trips are cancelled, and more severe restrictions are put in place in Europe and China. (Source: Investing.com) The oil market continues to be tight due to the increased demand for heating oil to replace natural gas, which has become very expensive, especially in Europe; the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark dropped almost 8% to €89 there. As you may know, one third of European gas supplies come from Russia. This explains why the energy market is also keeping an eye on the Russo-Western crisis around Ukraine. Russian gas exports could be affected if tensions rise, as Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to speak on the phone with his American counterpart Joe Biden later today. I bet they won’t talk about Russian caviar (which might also be considered Russia’s original black gold). RBOB Gasoline (RBF22) Futures (Continuous contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) WTI Crude Oil (CLG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Sector Themes In Play In The Markets For 2022

Sector Themes In Play In The Markets For 2022

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 31.12.2021 16:45
As 2021 closes, it’s time to consider how sector themes in the markets are likely to perform in 2022. Years like 2021 saw a solid broad-based performance in many stock market sectors. Relatively simple approaches such as Indexing and Sector Rotation did well. But with macro changes in play and many uncertainties for 2022, we may very well see broad indexes underperforming while individual sectors dominated by a few stocks really shine. Dips will continue to be bought unless something significant changes. But let’s not forget that we’re long overdue for a substantial correction. Significant risk catalysts are:Fed actions.International conflicts (i.e., Russia and China).Pandemic developments that are not currently known.There’s always the risk of the unknown – the literal definition of a “Black Swan” event. We shouldn’t get too complacent, knowing that we may need to get defensive to protect capital suddenly. When it’s time to be defensive, let’s not forget that CASH IS A POSITION!sector theme DRIVERS FOR 2022Many uncertainties about Covid and the lingering effects on the economy remain. Inflation has roared back to 30-year highs. Strong employment numbers and consumer spending are fueling significant growth in corporate earnings. We also have a shift in bias at the Fed on interest rates and quantitative easing. These are the “knowns” and are theoretically priced in.For these reasons and more, we should expect more of a “Stockpicker’s Market” in 2022. Certain sectors will do well and weather corrections better than the broader markets.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Even short-term traders can gain an edge by paying attention to what sectors are strongest. Traders tend to benefit most from playing the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors for bullish trades and choosing the weakest stocks in weaker sectors for bearish trades. That “tailwind” can make a significant difference in results.Let’s look at some sector themes and individual names to keep an eye on in 2022.ECONOMIC NORMALIZATIONA long-anticipated return to a “normal” economy will continue to be a theme -- we just don’t know if that will be Post-Covid or Co-Covid. Or when. Air travel, theme parks, hotels, cruise lines, etc., have all suffered in the persistent Pandemic. What does seem to be changing is the idea of a “new normal” where virus variants may be with us for years to come. We will adjust socially and economically to that for the foreseeable future. DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL are airlines to watch, and the JETS ETF may be a good way to play a general recovery in this sector.5G INTERNETThe much-hyped rollout of 5G network technology had its share of setbacks and technology disappointments. But 2022 should see the 5G deployment start to take off as technical issues are worked out, and the promise of widespread coverage with transformational performance becomes real. In the background supplying the 5G infrastructure are AMD, QCOM, ADI, MRVL, AMT, XLNX, and KEYS. Along with infrastructure and testing companies, shares of major carriers T, TMUS, and VZ languished for much of the second half of 2021 and looked poised for recovery in the coming year.ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEIn all its various forms (including autonomous vehicles), AI will remain a developing trend. Big players in the space to watch include MSFT, AMAT, GOOGL, NVDA, AAPL, and QCOM. EVs and AUTONOMOUS VEHICLESElectric Vehicles (EVs) are nearing an inflection point where widespread adoption is poised to take off. Technology and cost competitiveness has improved where some EVs will reach price parity with their traditional internal combustion counterparts.While there are many smaller players in the EV space, automotive stalwarts F, GM, and TM are investing very heavily. TSLA has been grabbing the headlines, but many others want to stake out their territory in the space, including whole tiers of manufacturers and infrastructure enablers like WKHS, XPEV, NKLA, and CHPT.MATERIALS and MININGGold, silver, and related miners underperformed for much of 2021 and now look poised for a recovery year as inflation, and monetary concerns grow. GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ look good as both longer and mid-term plays. Metals and miners may get hit initially with a significant downturn in stocks but could ultimately demonstrate their safe-haven potential. Specific to the growth in EVs, battery technology, etc., copper, lithium, and related basic materials should see stronger demand ahead. FCX looks particularly interesting as a dual play on gold and copper. LIT may be a good ETF play on lithium battery technology.SEMICONDUCTORSThe market for chips is primed for exponential growth. EV’s have about ten times the number of specialty semiconductors as conventional vehicles. AI, crypto, 5G, mobile devices, and ubiquitous computing should drive growth in the semiconductor sector for some time to come.REAL ESTATEReal Estate and Homebuilders should continue to do well while employment numbers remain strong and if interest rates don’t rise too quickly. The inventory shortage in most real estate markets will likely persist well into the new year.Storage REITs like PSA, LSI, and CUBE have been big winners in the Covid economy and still have room to run.SUMMARYMany sectors still look bullish after gains in 2021. But there are “storm clouds” on the horizon, and we must not take future performance for granted.Lastly, one of the simplest ways to assess how sectors are measuring up is to watch the charts for the S&P SPDR series sector ETFs and a few others. Here are some notable ones to watch:These can give us a good starting place to look for leading stocks in winning sectors as the year unfolds.Let’s remain vigilant for possible market corrections and may the wind be at our backs!Want to learn more about our Options Trading Service?Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to check it out, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!
Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback

Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.12.2021 15:49
S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. Given the continued risk-off turn in bonds, the stock market setback could have been more than a tad deeper – that would be the conclusion at first glance. However, high yield corporate bonds held up much better than quality debt instruments, and that means the superficial look would have been misleading. Likewise as regards my other 2 signs out of the 3 yesterday presented ones – tech held up fine, and cryptos have practically erased yesterday‘s hesitation during today‘s premarket. The Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, and the slighly better than a coin toss odds of us not facing more than a very shallow correction, look to be materializing. As I wrote 2 days ago – What‘s Not to Love Here – we‘re entering 2022 with great open profits in both S&P 500 (entered aggressively at 4,672) and crude oil (entered with full force at $67.60). Both rides aren‘t yet over, copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. We had a good year of strong gains, and I hope you have benefited. Thank you for all your appreciation and best wishes sent my way throughout all of 2021 and now by email or via Twitter – I would love to wish you a very Happy New Year – may 2022 keep bringing you happiness, success and good health. Enjoy the New Year‘s Eve celebrations, and see you again on Jan 03, 2022! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 consolidation is still shaping up finely – and does so on solid internals. Particularly the tech resilience is a good omen. Credit Markets HYG could have indeed declined some more, but didn‘t. While I‘m not reading all too much into this signal individually, it fits the (still bullish) mozaic completed by other markets on my watch. That‘s the strength of intermarket analysis. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver got on the defensive, but the bears didn‘t get too far – and the chance they could have, wasn‘t too bad. Rising yields were though countered by the declining dollar. Crude Oil Crude oil is likely to pause today, and will rally again once risk-on returns broadly, including into credit markets. For now, backing and filling above $76 is my leading very short-term scenario – Monday though will be a fresh day. Copper Copper is pausing, but the downswing didn‘t reach far, and was bought relatively fast. More consolidation above $4.40 looks likely, and it would come with a generally bullish bias that‘s apt to surprise on the upside. Similarly to precious metals though, patience. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback, and as long as mid-Dec lows don‘t come in sight again, crypto prices can muddle through with a gently bullish bias. Summary Santa Claus isn‘t willing to give much ground, and the table is set for this nice rally to modestly continue today – somewhere more pronouncedly (S&P 500, cryptos) than elsewhere (commodities and precious metals). I‘m still looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds – it has been great that the bears couldn‘t find more strength yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
USDCHF tests daily support, AUDUSD consolidates gains, EURGBP falls below daily support

USDCHF tests daily support, AUDUSD consolidates gains, EURGBP falls below daily support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.01.2022 09:59
USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar softens over increased risk appetite. A drop below the lower band of the consolidation range at 0.9160 confirms a lack of interest in the greenback. The pair is testing the major demand zone around 0.9100 from the daily chart. A bearish breakout could jeopardize the pair’s rebound over the past quarter. It could also trigger a sell-off towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The bulls may be tempted to buy the dip. 0.9180 would be the first resistance to lift before they could turn the downbeat inertia around. AUDUSD consolidates gains The Australian dollar finds support from rising commodity prices. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates improvement in underlying sentiment. The former supply zone between 0.7210 and 0.7220 has turned into a demand zone. Buyers may be eager to join the rally after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 0.7290 is a fresh resistance, and a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling could temporarily weigh on the Aussie. 0.7120 is a second line of defense in case of a deeper retracement. EURGBP falls below daily support The pound outperforms the euro over diverging monetary policies. The break below the daily support at 0.8380 is an invalidation of the rebound in late November. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has attracted some buying interest, but not enough to sustain a meaningful bounce. 0.8420 is now a fresh resistance. And only its breach could prompt sellers to cover. On the downside, 0.8365 is a fragile support. A breakout would further deteriorate sentiment and send the euro to February 2020’s lows near 0.8280.
"Gold is in the 1960s"

"Gold is in the 1960s"

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 31.12.2021 14:05
  Although your calendar may say otherwise, gold is in the 1960s. The question is whether we will move into the 1970s or speed-run to the mid-2010s. Did you go overboard with your time travel and lose track of time? Probably not, but just in case, I assure you that the current year is 2021. To be 100% sure, I fact-checked it on a dedicated webpage for time-travelers. However, the authority of science is being questioned, and there are people who say that, from a macroeconomic point of view, we are approaching the 1970s, or at least the 1960s. There are also voices saying that the gold market is replaying 2012-2013. Although appearances point to 2021, let’s investigate what year we really live in. The similarities with the 1970s are obvious. Just like then, we have high inflation, large fiscal deficits (see the chart below), and easy, erroneous monetary policy. Fifty years ago, the Fed blamed inflation on exogenous shocks and considered inflation to be transitory too. The new monetary regime adopted by the US central bank in 2020 also takes us back to the 70s and the mistaken belief that the economy cannot overheat, so the Fed can let inflation run above the target for a while in order to boost employment. The parallels extend beyond price pressure. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan reminded many of the fall of Saigon. The world is facing an energy crisis right now, another feature of the 1970s. If we really repeat those years, gold bulls should be happy, as the yellow metal rallied from $35 to $850, surging more than 2300% back in that decade (see the chart below). However, there is one problem with this narrative. In the 1970s, we experienced stagflation, i.e., a simultaneous occurrence of high inflation and economic stagnation with a rising unemployment rate. Currently, although we face strong upward price pressure, we enjoy economic expansion and declining unemployment, as the chart below shows. Indeed, the monthly unemployment rate decreased from 14.8% in April 2020 to 4.2% in November 2021. The current macroeconomic situation, characterized by inflation without stagnation part, is reminiscent of the 1960s, a decade marked by rising inflation and rapid GDP growth. As the chart below shows, the CPI annual rate reached a local maximum of 6.4% in February 1970, similar to the current inflation level. Apparently, we are replaying the 1960s right now rather than the 1970s. So far, growth is slowing down, but we are far from stagnation territory. There is no discussion on this. My point was always that the Fed’s actions could bring us to the 1970s, or that complacency about inflation is increasing the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and the materialization of a stagflationary scenario. In the 1960s, the price of gold was still fixed, so historical analysis is impossible. However, it seems that gold won’t start to rally until we see some signs of stagnation or an economic crisis, and markets begin to worry about recession. Given that the current economic expansion looks intact, the yellow metal is likely to struggle at least by mid-2022 (unless supply disruptions and energy crisis intensify significantly, wreaking havoc). Do we have to go back that far in time, though? Maybe the 2020 peak in gold prices was like the 2011 peak and we are now somewhere in 2012-2013, on the eve of a great downward move in the gold market? Some similarities cannot be denied: the economy is recovering from a recession, while the Fed is tightening its monetary policy, and gold shows weakness with its inability to surpass $1,800. So, some concerns are warranted. I pointed out a long time ago the threat of an upward move in the real interest rates (as they are at record low levels), which could sink the precious metals market. However, there are two key differences compared to the 2012-2013 period. First, inflation is much higher and it’s still accelerating, while ten years ago there was disinflation. This distinction should support gold prices. The peak in the inflation rate could be a dangerous time for gold, as the disinflationary era would raise interest rates, putting downward pressure on the yellow metal. Second, the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle are probably already priced in. In other words, the next “taper tantrum” is not likely to happen. It implies that a sudden spike in the interest rates similar to that of 2013 (see the chart below) shouldn’t repeat now. Hence, the answer to the question “what year is it?” should be that we are somewhere in the 1960s and we can move later into the 1970s if high inflation stays with us and stagnation sets in or if the next crisis hits. However, we can leap right into the 2010s if inflation peaks soon and the hawkish Fed triggers a jump in bond yields. It’s also possible that we will see a temporary disinflation before the second wave of elevated inflation. So, gold could continue its struggle for a while before we see another rally. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
A Look At Markets Around The World: US CPI, Sweden Riksbank EU Yields And More

Taxes, UK Equities, Global Shipping and Pandemic in "Charts of 2021: Honorable Mentions" by Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas Callum Thomas 03.01.2022 14:13
Last week I shared with you some of my Best Charts of 2021 (as well as my Worst Charts of 2021 and then also my favorites!) -- so this week I wanted to follow up with what I would say are the "honorable mention" charts of 2021...       These charts were worthy of mention but didn’t quite fit into any of the previous categories -- but were definitely worth including and highlighting both due to how they proved useful in the past year or so, but also in terms of the outlook into 2022.       These charts were featured in my just-released 2021 End of Year Special Report -- check it out (free download as a holiday treat!).       Enjoy, feel free to share, and be sure to let me know what you think in the comments...           1. Expect Higher Taxes: This chart arguably points to higher tax rates ahead given that government debt as a % of GDP has doubled over the past decade while effectively economy-wide tax-take has gone sideways.       chart of developed economy fiscal outlook - higher taxes forecast           2. Global Food Crisis? Stagnant capex by food producers contributed to a perfect storm for food prices (along with actual storms, pandemic disruption, rising costs).                 3. UK Equities: In the wake of Brexit & pandemic woes, UK equities moved to decade-low valuations vs their European peers. From crisis to opportunity?                     >>> These charts were featured in our 2021 End of Year Special Report.               4. Global Shipping Capex: Shipping sector investment stagnated for a decade – contributing to the global supply chain chaos. Ironically it likely rebounds after banking windfall profits from the surge in freight rates.                 5. Global vs US Earnings Cycles: A key driver of the long-term cycles of relative price performance of global vs US equities has been the cycles in relative earnings. That cycle will need to change for the price cycle to change.                 6. Pandemic Progress: the global rollout of vaccines, rising immunity, societal adaptations, and therapeutics have helped result in a series of lower highs in deaths – I like the look of that trend. The light at the end of the tunnel, though flickering at times, does seem a little brighter now…                     Thanks for reading!           This is an excerpt from my 2021 End of Year Special report - click through to download a free copy of the report.       Best regards       Callum Thomas   Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts           Follow us on:   Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/   LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts   Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
SEC Rejects Valkyrie, Kryptoin Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications

Bitcoin price eyes higher high, Ethereum price to revisit crucial barriers

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.01.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price bounces off the $45,678 support level, suggesting a higher high is likely. Ethereum price looks primed for a sweep of the $4,133 resistance level to collect the liquidity resting above it. Ripple price might head lower to retest the 3-day demand zone, ranging from $0.704 to $0.778 before it triggers a run-up. Bitcoin price has been stuck, ranging between two crucial levels since the December 3 flash crash. This consolidation is setting up the base for a long-term volatile move, but for now, BTC is likely to retest the range high of this sideways move. Ethereum and Ripple will promptly follow the big crypto and see short-term gains. Bitcoin price eyes higher high Bitcoin price bounced off the $45,678 support floor for the fourth time and is currently hovering at $46,921, just below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A surge in bullish momentum that overcomes this hurdle is likely to propel the pioneer crypto to tag the $51,993 resistance barrier, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. A sweep of this level will collect the buy-stop liquidity resting above it. This 13% upswing is likely to face profit-taking at this level, leading to a reversal. However, in some cases, the buyers could flip this level to a support floor, suggesting that Bitcoin price might head higher and retest the $57,030. BTC/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, a breakdown of the $45,678 support floor will reveal a weakness among buyers. This move will crash BTC by 9% to retest the December 3, 2021 swing low at $41,672. Here, Bitcoin price has another chance to make a comeback and will likely restart the upswing. Ethereum price to revisit crucial barriers Ethereum price revisited the $3,640 support floor for the third time on December 31, 2021, triggering a 5% ascent to where it currently trades - $3,800. Unlike the big crypto, ETH is comfortably trading above the 200-day SMA. A potential spike in buying pressure is likely to propel Ethereum price to retest the $4,113 resistance barrier, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. This run-up would constitute an 8.4% ascent and is likely to see the short-term upswing capped. If the buyers continue to pile on the bid orders, ETH might slice through the said hurdles and make a run for the $4,435 ceiling, representing a 16% gain. ETH/USD 6-hour chart In some cases, Ethereum price might revisit the $3,640 barrier before heading to the immediate resistance barrier. A breakdown of this level, however, will lead to a retest of the December 3, 2021 swing low at $3,456, where buyers have another chance to restart the uptrend. Ethereum primed for 50% breakout to $6,300 Ripple price could head lower Ripple price is hovering above the 3-day demand zone, ranging from $0.704 to $0.778 and is likely to retest it before it decides to head higher. A dip into this area will replenish the bullish momentum, allowing the XRP price to climb higher. The $0.892 resistance barrier will be the first hurdle the remittance token will tag, beyond which it is likely to collect the liquidity resting above the $0.939 ceiling. In some cases, Ripple price could extend its run-up to $1, where it will face immense selling pressure. XRP/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the recent run-up, if Ripple price slices through the 3-day demand zone, extending from $0.704 to $0.778, and produces a decisive close below it, the bullish thesis will face invalidation. In which case, the XRP price could slide lower to revisit the $0.656 support floor. XRP price to present long opportunity for Ripple bulls at $0.87
Let's have a look at S&P 500, Crude Oil, Nasdaq and Credit Markets. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows.

Let's have a look at S&P 500, Crude Oil, Nasdaq and Credit Markets. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows.

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.01.2022 15:57
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising. Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words: (…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. Finally, cryptos look to be in agreement with not reading too much to Friday‘s downswings – both Bitcoin and Ethereum are turning up as $46K in BTC held up once again. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Nasdaq got a little oversold relative to S&P 500 – this is not the start of a fresh downtrend. Once financials and consumer discretionaries turn up, the rally will be on better footing again. Credit Markets HYG could have declined some more, but tellingly didn‘t. Bonds aren‘t ready to turn to risk-off just yet. Upswing attempt next shouldn‘t be surprising in the least. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking at a much better year than was 2021. Stock market volatility, GDP growth challenges and persistent inflation would help the metals and commodities rise. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to move up again as gains were taken off the table on Friday. With the omicron response and related pronouncements coming in lately from the U.S., what else to expect – a great deal of destroyed demand doesn‘t look to be ahead. Copper Copper undid the prior pause, and looks ready to keep defending the $4.43 area. The long consolidation that started in May, would be eventually broken to the upside. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum may be short-term undecided, but don‘t look willing to decline. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows. Summary First trading day of 2022 is likely to extend prior gains, resolving the prior sideways move. As risk-on faltered on Friday, S&P 500 and cryptos are likely to catch up, and oil would probably outperform copper today while precious metals digest very solid New Year‘s Eve gains. We‘re nowhere near the good days ending just yet – turbulence would come once Fed tapering gets really noticeable (post Olympics), with VIX trending higher well before that already. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
NZDUSD can be ahead of consolidation, XAGUSD - silver declines as dollar strengthens, GER 40 goes up, "wishing" Omicron won't hit that much

NZDUSD can be ahead of consolidation, XAGUSD - silver declines as dollar strengthens, GER 40 goes up, "wishing" Omicron won't hit that much

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.01.2022 09:14
NZDUSD breaks support The New Zealand dollar tumbles against its US counterpart amid soaring Treasury yields. The pair is looking to consolidate its recent gains after it rallied above the 30-day moving average (0.6820). The December high at 0.6860 is a major resistance. A bullish close may propel the kiwi to 0.6950. In the meantime, the pullback below 0.6800 suggests a lack of further commitment from the buy-side as short-term traders took profit. 0.6740 is the next support and its breach may lead to a correction to 0.6700. XAGUSD seeks support Silver falls back as the US dollar strengthens across the board. Price action saw a strong recovery from the daily support at 21.50. A rally above 23.15 indicates interest in keeping the rebound valid, following a brief end of the year sell-off. The double top at 23.40 is an important resistance on the way to 23.70. This point lies in a supply zone from the late November sell-off. A break below the psychological level of 23.00 has prompted intraday buyers to bail out. 22.60 is the closest support and its breach could drive the metal to 21.80. GER 40 rises towards an all-time high The Dax 40 rallies in hopes that Omicron lockdowns can be avoided. A bullish MA cross on the daily charts indicates improved sentiment. The rally accelerated after it cleared the supply area around 15750. The bulls are pushing towards the all-time high at 16300. A breakout could resume the uptrend, attracting trend followers in the process. The RSI surged again into the overbought territory and may temper the bullish fever. 15840 is fresh support. 15680 from the previous resistance area would be a test for buyers’ resolve.
Does gold in the beginning of 2022 remind us year 2021? What about inflation this year?

Does gold in the beginning of 2022 remind us year 2021? What about inflation this year?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 04.01.2022 13:14
The start of 2021 wasn’t successful for gold: after a few days of rally, the yellow metal entered a bearish trend. 2022 looks uncomfortably similar. So far, so good – the first three days of 2022 didn’t bring a new catastrophe. It’s probably just the calm before the storm, but the new year started well. Even the price of gold has risen! As the chart below shows, the yellow metal managed to jump above the key level of $1,800 at the very end of 2021, but it still maintains its position (at least as of early January 3, 2022). It reminds me of the beginning of 2021. Gold also started last year with a bang, only to plunge later. Its price increased 3.5% during the first week of the year, reaching $1,957, and then began its big downward move. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal plunged below $1,700 at the very end of March. Hence, although January is historically a good month for gold, it might be too early to celebrate, and investors should exercise caution. However, luckily for gold bulls, there is one significant difference between 2021 and 2022. Last year, there were Georgia runoffs and Democrats took over both the White House and the full Congress (the House and the Senate). That was when the blue wave plunged the yellow metal. This year should be politically calmer for the US (so, we don’t count the odds of Russia invading Ukraine and China attacking Taiwan), but the major threat to the gold market remains the same: a rise in the real interest rates. In January 2021, it was the blue wave that triggered a rebound in rates, but it may be induced by many more factors in the future. It could be the development of a new cure against coronavirus and the end of the pandemic, a more hawkish Fed, or a decline in inflation. The spread of the Omicron variant keeps worries alive. After all, as the chart below shows, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases in the United States has hit a record high of about 405,000. When we are completely back to normalcy, risk appetite and bond yields may increase. Another risk for gold is the stabilization of inflation and even subsequent disinflation. As the chart below shows, we got a one-off boost in the money supply, so inflation is likely to peak this year. Inflation expectations should ease then, and real interest rates may rebound in such a scenario. What gives me some comfort here is that the pace of money supply growth hasn’t returned to the pre-pandemic level yet, but it stays at an elevated level (although much below the peak). It should support high inflation this year. Moreover, the Fed is likely to remain behind the curve and the peak in inflation may only strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC (although investors should remember that the composition of the voting members of the Committee has become more hawkish in 2022).   Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Will the yellow metal resume its long-term bullish trend in 2022? Well, this is what a majority of investors that took part in Kitco News’ annual outlook survey believe. Of nearly 3,000 retail investors, 54% said they see gold prices above $2,000 by the end of the year. This is also in line with Goldman Sachs’ call for gold in 2022. Other forecasters see gold prices trading in a range between $1,800 and $2,000. It’s certainly a possible scenario. After all, much of the Fed’s tightening cycle has already been priced in; and the last time gold bottomed was in December 2015, just around the first hike in the federal funds rate after the Great Recession. However, I expect more volatile trading with strong downside potential. As a reminder, my educated guess is that gold may plunge at some point amid a rebound in bond yields, but will rise later as worries about the next economic crisis accumulate. Indeed, it’s quite funny, but I haven’t even finished this article, and the price of gold has already started to slide amid rising US dollar index and Treasury yields, in line with my warnings from the beginning of this text. This is how I became a prophet. Now I can see that as soon as you finish reading this article you will continue surfing the internet! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Can't skip S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq

Can't skip S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.01.2022 15:53
Very good S&P 500 entry to 2022, and the HYG intraday reversal is the sight to rejoice. In the sea of rising yields, both tech and value managed to do well – the market breadth keeps improving as not only the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages shows. Likewise VIX refused to reach even 19, and instead is attacking 16.50. This is not complacency – the bulls were thoroughly shaken at the entry to the session yesterday – but a buying interest that convincingly turned the tide during the day. As I wrote yesterday: (…) thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. The only sector taking a beating yesterday, were precious metals. While inflation expectations were little changed (don‘t look for inflation to go away any time soon as I‘ve been making the case repeatedly), the daily rise in yields propelled the dollar to reverse Friday‘s decline, and that knocked both gold and silver off the high perch they closed at last week. Still, none of the fundamental or monetary with fiscal policy originating reasoning has been invalidated – not even the charts were damaged badly by Monday‘s weakness. As economic growth gets questioned while fiscal policy remains expansive unlike the monetary one, volatily in the stock market together with persistent inflation would be putting a nice floor beneath the metals. Even cryptos are refusing to yield much ground, the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio keeps trading positively, and I‘m not even talking the rubber band that commodities (crude oil and copper) are. Very good for our open positions there, as much as in the S&P 500 – let them keep bringing profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Really bullish price action in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq – that was the entry to 2022 I was looking for. Embellished with prior downswing that lends more credibility to the intraday reversal. Credit Markets HYG refusing to decline more, is the most bullish sign for today imaginable – let it hold, for junk bonds now hold the key, especially if quality debt instruments keep declining steeply. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to have reversed, but reaching such a conclusion would be premature. The long basing pattern goes on, and breakout higher would follow once the Fed‘s attempting to take the punch bowl away inflicts damage on the real economy (and markets), which is what the yield curve compression depicts. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to launch higher – and it‘s not a matter of solid oil stocks performance only. Just look at the volume – it didn‘t disappoint, and in the risk-on revival that I expect for today, black gold would benefit. Copper Copper swooned, but regained composure – the stop run is over, and we‘re back to base building for the coming upswing. Broader commodities certainly agree. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are very gently leaning bullish, but I‘m not sounding the all clear there yet thanks to how long Bitcoin is dillydallying. Cryptos aren‘t yet out of the woods, but their posture has improved thus far noticeably. Summary First trading day of 2022 extended prior S&P 500 gains, and the risk-on appetite is improving as we speak. Commodities are reaping the rewards, and we‘re looking at another good day ahead, including in precious metals taking a bite at yesterday‘s inordinately large downswing. Nothing of the big factors ahead for Q1 2022 as described in today‘s analysis (I wholeheartedly recommend reading it in full for the greatest benefits – there is only so much / little that I can fit into a one paragraph summary), and that means we‘re looking at further stock market gains as the bull runs (including in commodities and precious metals, yes precious metals), aren‘t over in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold and silver - The beginning of the year 2022 may not satisfy

Gold and silver - The beginning of the year 2022 may not satisfy

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 04.01.2022 16:10
  Gold, silver, and mining stocks started 2022 with a bang. However, this wasn’t the kind of fireworks investors were hoping for. While gold, silver, and mining stocks partied hard into year-end, the trio woke up to massive hangovers on Jan. 3. Although I’ve been warning for some time that mining stocks would stumble in 2021, the New Year is still filled with old problems. For example, the GDX ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs for months, and when its RSI (Relative Strength Index) approaches 70, the senior miners often run out of gas. For context, I highlighted the events with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the senior miners’ current price action following the ominous paths of 2000, 2008, and 2013, and their stochastic indicator still signaling overbought conditions, Monday’s weakness may be a sign of things to come. Please see below: Please also consider the implications of year-end tax-loss harvesting. With the general stock market rallying to start the New Year, losing positions that were sold to offset capital gains near the end of 2021 were likely repurchased on Jan. 3. However, gold, silver, and mining stocks didn’t benefit from the phenomenon. As a result, while the GDX ETF may have outperformed gold, the relative strength was immaterial within the overall picture. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish forecast is present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As a result, we’ve entered a consolidation phase, and the implications are not bullish, but bearish. Making three of a kind, the GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021. Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term and predicting higher prices might be misleading. Finally, while my short position in the GDXJ ETF proved quite prescient in 2021, the junior miners continue to underperform the senior miners. With the GDX/GDXJ ratio likely to confront new lows in the coming months, the GDXJ ETF should remain a material laggard in 2022. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks started off 2022 with a bang. However, it wasn’t the kind of fireworks that investors were hoping for. With each new celebration shorter in magnitude, it’s likely only a matter of time before their parties are canceled. As a result, the precious metals still confront the same bearish technical outlooks that plagued them in 2021. While mean reversion remains undefeated over the long term, the wait may prove longer than many expect. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is definitely worth watching as a rally may happen

Dogecoin (DOGE) is definitely worth watching as a rally may happen

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.01.2022 15:55
Dogecoin price is setting up a triple bottom setup on a 4-hour time frame, suggesting a reversal is likely. Investors can expect DOGE to rally 13% and retest the $0.191 resistance level. A breakdown of the $0.20 support floor will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. Dogecoin price has been stuck trading below a vital resistance level and hovering around a crucial support floor. While a breakdown of this foothold could result in a massive downswing, DOGE has not done it yet. As of this writing, the meme coin eyes a minor upswing. Dogecoin price looks to contest significant hurdles Dogecoin price has set up a triple bottom pattern after tagging the $0.168 support level thrice over the past week. This price action could result in a short-term increase in buying pressure, leading to a 13% ascent to $0.191. Due to consolidative price action between December 24 and December 27, 2021, there is now pent-up buy-stop liquidity resting above $0.191, and market makers are likely to push DOGE higher in the short term. Traders can open a long position from the current level at $0.169 and take profits at $0.191. Interestingly, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) coincides with $0.191 lending credence to the target for Dogecoin Price. DOGE/USDT 4-hour chart On the other hand, if the Dogecoin price fails to bounce off the $0.169 support floor due to increased selling pressure, DOGE will likely revisit the $0.159 demand barrier. A breakdown of this foothold will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, Dogecoin price could crash 5% to tag the subsequent support level at $0.151.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Crude Oil are ones you're likely to watch

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Crude Oil are ones you're likely to watch

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.01.2022 15:55
Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome. The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end. That‘s all constructive for stock market bulls, and coupled with the fresh surge in commodities (and precious metals), bodes well for the S&P 500 not to crater soon again. Another positive sign comes from the dollar, which wasn‘t really able to keep intraday gains in spite of the rising Treasury yields. Cryptos though remain cautious (unlike precious metals which moved nicely off Monday‘s oversold levels – on a daily basis oversold), so we‘re in for a muddle through with a generally and gently bullish bias this week… until non-farrm payrolls surprise on Friday (and markets would probably interpret it as a reason to rise). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps respectably treading water, waiting for Nasdaq to kick in – odds are we won‘t have to wait for a modest upswing in both for too long. Credit Markets HYG is the key next – holding above yesterday‘s lows would give stocks enough breathing room, and so would however modest quality debt instruments upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are leading miners, but the respectable daily volume makes up for this non-confirmation. The table is set for the floor below gold and silver to hold, while a very convincing miners move has to still wait. Crude Oil Everything is ready for the crude oil upswing – even if oil stocks pause next, which can be expected if tech stages a good rally. Until then, it‘s bullish for both $WTIC and $XOI. Copper Copper is keeping the upswing alive, and any pullbacks don‘t have good odds of taking the red metal below 4.39 lastingly. Still, copper remains range bound for now, and the pressure to go higher, is building up. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum lost the bullish slant, but didn‘t turn bearish yet – this hesitation is disconcerting, but it would be premature to jump the gun. It‘s still more likely that cryptos would defy the shrinking global liquidity, and try to stage a modest rally. Summary S&P 500 internals reveal tech getting hurt yesterday, and at the same time getting ready for a brief upswing of the dead cat bounce flavor. And if HYG kicks back in, odds increase dramatically that the tech (and by extension S&P 500) upswing won‘t be a dead cat bounce (please note that I‘m not implying vulnerability to a large downswing) – that‘s my leading scenario, which should materialize by Friday‘s market open. Yes, I‘m looking for non-farm payrolls to be well received once the dust settles. Till then, commodities are paving the way for further stock market gains, with precious metals turning out not too shabby either. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Will 2022~23 Require Different Strategies For TradersInvestors Part II

Will 2022~23 Require Different Strategies For TradersInvestors Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 06.01.2022 00:19
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? Part III started this article by highlighting how difficult some 2021 strategies seemed for many Hedge Funds and Professional Traders. It appears the extreme market volatility throughout 2021 took a toll on many systems and strategies. I wouldn't be surprised to see various sector ETFs and Sector Mutual Funds up 15% to 20% or more for 2021 while various Hedge Funds struggle with annual returns between 7% and -5% for 2021.After many years in this industry and having built many of my own strategies over the past decade, I've learned one very important facet of trading strategy development – expect the unexpected. A friend always told me to "focus on failure" when we developed strategies together. His approach to strategy design was "you develop it do too well in certain types of market trends and volatility. By focusing on where it fails, you'll learn more about the potential draw-downs and risks of a strategy than ignoring these points of failure". I tend to agree with him.In the first part of this research article, the other concept I started discussing was how traders/investors might consider moving away from strategies that struggled in 2022. What if the markets continue trending with extreme volatility throughout 2022 and into 2023? Suppose your system or strategy has taken some losses in 2022, and you have not stopped to consider volatility or other system boundaries as a potential issue. In that case, you may be looking forward to a very difficult 12 to 14+ months of trading in 2022 and 2023.Volatility Explodes After 2017Current market volatility/ATR levels are 300% to 500% above those of 2014/2015. These are the highest volatility levels the US markets have ever experienced in the past 20+ years. The current ATR level is above 23.20 – more than 35% higher than the DOT COM Peak volatility of 17.15.As long as the Volatility/ATR levels stay near these elevated levels, traders and investors will likely find the markets very difficult to trade with strategies that cannot properly adapt to the increased risks and price rotations in trends. Simply put, these huge increases in price volatility may chew up profits by getting stopped out on pullbacks or by risking too much in terms of price range/volatility.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The increased volatility over the past 5+ years directly reflects global monetary policies and the COVID-19 global response to the crisis. Not only have we attempted to keep easy money policies for far too long in the US and foreign markets, but we've also been pushed into a hyperbolic price trend that started after 2017/18, which has increased global debt consumption/levels to the extreme.2022 and 2023 will likely reflect a very strong revaluation trend which I continue to call a longer-term "transition" within the global markets. This transition will probably take many forms over the next 24+ months – but mostly, it will be about deleveraging debt levels and the destruction of excess risk in the markets. In my opinion, that means the strongest global economies may see some strength over the next 24+ months – but may also see extreme price volatility and extreme price rotation as this transition takes place.Expect The Unexpected in 2022 & 2023The US major indexes had an incredible 2021 – rallying across all fears and COVID variants. The NASDAQ and S&P500 saw the biggest gains in 2021 – which may continue into early 2022. Yet I feel the US markets will continue to transition as the global markets continue to navigate the process of unwinding excess debt levels and potentially deleveraging at a more severe rate than many people expect.Because of this, I feel the US markets may continue to strengthen as global traders pile into the US Dollar based assets in early 2022. Until global pressures of deleveraging and transitioning away from excesses put enough pressure on the US stock market, the perceived safety of US assets and the US Dollar will continue as it is now.(Source: www.StockCharts.com)Watch For Sector Strength In Early 2022 As Price-Pressure & Supply-Side Issues Create A Unique Opportunity For Extended Revenues/ProfitsI believe the US markets will see a continued rally phase in early 2022 as Q4:2021 revenues, earnings, and economic data pour in. I can't see how any global economic concerns will disrupt the US markets if Q4:2021 data stays stronger than expected for US stocks and the US economy.That being said, I do believe certain sectors will be high-fliers in Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 – at least until the supply-side issues across the globe settle down and return to more normal delivery expectations. This means sectors like Automakers, Healthcare, Real Estate, Consumer Staples & Discretionary, Technology, Chip manufacturers, and some Retail segments (Construction, Raw Materials, certain consumer products sellers, and specialty sellers) will drive a new bullish trend in 2022.The US major indexes may continue to move higher in 2022. They may also be hampered by sectors struggling to find support or over-weighted in symbols that were over-hyped through the end of 2020 and in early 2021.I have been concerned about this type of transition throughout most of 2021 (particularly after the MEME/Reddit rally phase in early 2021). That type of extreme trending usually leads to an unwinding process. I still don't believe the US and global markets have completed the unwinding process after the post-COVID extreme rally phase.(Source: www.StockCharts.com)Will The Lazy-Bull Strategy Continue To Outperform In 2022 & 2023?This is a tricky question to answer simply because I can't predict the future any better than you can. But I do believe moving towards a higher-level analysis of global market trends when the proposed "transitioning" is starting to take place allows traders to move away from "chasing price spikes." It also allows them to position for momentum strength in various broader market sectors and indexes.I suspect we'll start to see annual reports from some of the biggest institutional trading firms on the planet that show feeble performance in 2021. This recent article caught my attention related to Quant Funds in China.I believe we will see 2022 and 2023 stay equally distressing for certain styles of trading strategies while price volatility and an extreme deleveraging/transitioning trend occur. Trying to navigate this type of choppy global market trending on a short-term basis can be very dangerous. I believe it is better to move above all this global market chop and trade the bigger momentum trends in various sectors and indexes.Part III of this research article will focus on Q1 through Q4 expectations for 2022 and 2023. I will highlight broader sector/index trends that may play out well for investors and traders who can move above the low-level choppiness in the US and global markets.WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE TECHNICAL INVESTOR AND THE TECHNICAL INDEX & BOND TRADING STRATEGIES?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may begin a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to take a few minutes to visit the Technical Traders website to learn about our Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies and how they can help you protect and grow your wealth.Have a great day!
Game of Chicken

Game of Chicken

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.01.2022 16:18
FOMC minutes didn‘t reveal fresh hawkish tunes, but markets were caught off guard – unlike 3 weeks ago during the statement and press conference. It‘s as if S&P 500 and pretty much everything else woke up to the hawkish reality only now. In spite of the new liquidity powered Santa Claus rally, the sudden realization that the March Fed meeting might very well bring in a first rate hike, forced a sharp downturn across the board.The dollar wasn‘t too affected by the daily rise in yields that hit junk bonds particularly hard. The yield curve keeps being compressed, and is getting closer to the point of inversion. The likely good employment data on Friday would provide the Fed with a convenient cover to embark on and keep pursuing the tightening route. Not that it would have the power to break inflation (even at the professed very accelerated tapering pace – let alone the relatively measly hikes when CPI, PPI or PCE deflator are considered) – this game of chicken with the markets risks a tantrum that could bring up the „fond memories“ of Dec 2018.Yes, the risks of crashing the airplane would grow up over the coming weeks and months – the Fed is walking a very tight rope indeed. Markets are spooked, and the coming days would show whether this is already the start of something worse, or whether we can still shake it off and continue upwards till the Olympics. I‘m still leaning towards the latter.Anyway, good to have closed the profitable S&P 500 and crude oil positions in time.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTech understandably declined more than value – thanks to yields. S&P 500 bottom might not yet be in really. Bonds and tech need to stabilize first.Credit MarketsHYG is still holding the key, and would provide an early turnaround sign. The plunge in LQD isn‘t looking short-term encouraging in the least – the dust hasn‘t yet settled.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver still haven‘t left the sideways consolidation pattern – the white metal would be more affected through the inflation taming fears. That‘s though a premature calculation as inflation might turn out less amenable to be put down fast.Crude OilUnlike practically everything else, crude oil recovered strongly from the FOMC-induced setback – and certainly looks like the strongest of the pack at the moment.CopperCopper gave up advantageous position, and isn‘t really following (energy-led) commodities up yet. The long sideways consolidation is testing the bulls‘ resolve even as the pressure to go higher is building up. The same for silver, by the way.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum clearly lost the remainder of the bullish posture – it‘s turning out they aren‘t ready to defy the shrinking global liquidity.SummaryS&P 500 bulls look to get under some more pressure before the repeated hawkish message gets absorbed. The bond markets coupled with the dollar would reveal just how serious the bulls are about buying this dip and now. My bet is that they would remain shaken, and looking hesitantly for a floor. If there is one overarching message from yesterday, it‘s that the hawkish Fed appreciation has been woefully misapprehanded, and if followed through on in its entirety, would lead to a dangerous game of chicken with the markets (we aren‘t there quite yet).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Why Successful Traders Make More By Trading Less

Why Successful Traders Make More By Trading Less

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 06.01.2022 18:20
During my 25 years of trading and mentoring others, I have been dragged through the coals a few times. And by that, I mean I have; blown up a few trading accounts; had some massive gains only to watch them turn into worthless penny stocks, and; I even had one trade based around the volatility index blow up and become worthless the day after I bought it. I've had many other painful and costly trading experiences between those as well, and I know there will be more in the future. This leads me to the first topic I would like to talk about – learning through experience.#1 - Learned Through Expensive ExperiencesI help a lot of traders each year from all walks of life. They range from 18 to 85+ years of age. Some are total newbies, financial advisors, money managers, all the way up to billionaires. What is apparent is that the most successful traders (those who make money year after year) have the same things in common with how they trade. They all: walk a straight and somewhat unemotional line outside of learning from losses and trading mistakes.  focus on managing their capital because they understand just how quick and easy it is to lose money, which is why they focus and follow strict rules. follow very specific trading strategies/rules and do not trade on emotions. protect their capital ALWAYS with stops and position management only trade specific trade setups that put the probabilities in their favor focus heavily on index and bond positions say their trading feels slow/boring most of the time trade multiple strategies#2 - Ignore High Flying, News, Manipulated, and Hype Based MovesIt's hard not to participate in some of these wild rallies and stock crashes we have seen over the last couple of years. It's a natural tendency to want to take part in what everyone else is doing, and the lure of instant oversized gains is powerful. But, unfortunately, most individuals who get involved in these trades lose money for a good reason. They are trading based on greed/emotions with no real measured trading plan.Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying, "don't trade these stocks." In fact, many of these are incredible opportunities for experienced traders. These types of stocks generally become ideal for day traders and even momentum and aggressive swing traders. They can provide some quick extra cash. But that's what these types of trades are - small, fast, higher risk trades that only a seasoned trader should trade.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!For some reason, traders come into this business thinking it's a game and believes these are the types of trades that should always be traded. They take oversized positions only to experience significant damaging losses to their account.I conducted a survey a little while back, and the survey results blew my mind. Most people want to trade the volatile media-driven hype stocks and commodities. People fall in love with specific assets and want to trade only those, even if there are better assets and more efficient ways to pull money out of the market.The results below frustrate the heck out of me because, to me, it makes no logical sense if you are in the market to make money.Trader Survey Results Confirm Why it is Hard To Make MoneyThe above results make sense as studies have proven that humans react seven times more based on emotions versus logic. This is why the stock market has such wild price swings with Euphoric blowoff tops and Panic washout lows.People are highly addicted to riding their emotions (adrenaline/dopamine), and they love the rush of fast-moving stocks and gambling, which is why the markets are regulated, along with casinos, for that matter. Simply put, people lose control of common sense and logic when they are on tilt with emotion.Fast-moving assets with extreme volatility act as a bug-zapper light, which attracts bugs, only to kill anything that gets too close. In this case, new traders think they can make quick and easy money from hot stock in the news.Trading is a numbers game, and it requires logic, rules,and a proven strategy to win long-term.Based on the survey we did with thousands of traders, you can see that making the same amount of money with fewer trades and lower risk is not that exciting. Instead, traders prefer high volatility assets like metals, and natural gas, which are manipulated and have large wild price swings.Also, from a trading statics point of view, those two are among the most difficult to trade.As a pilot, I know the importance of keeping calm, having checklists/rules, and systems in place. Without them, you will eventually crash and burn; it is just a matter of time. The same holds true for trading and investing in that you need to trade what makes the most money, trade only the best setups, and have the lowest risk.Hottest Symbols vs Biggest TrendsBottom line, I don't care about trading every day or trying to catch the hottest symbols everyone is talking about. Instead, I care about catching and riding the biggest trends in the US stock index and the Treasury Bond ETFs. These are highly liquid sentiment trends that produce oversized gains each year. This is also the reason ETFs have taken over the mutual fund market and why financial advisors and hedge funds primarily trade/own stock index funds and bonds.Through the Technical Index and Bond ETF Trading strategy, I help individuals and advisors trade more efficiently. This strategy trades SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, QLD, TQQQ and TLT, TBT, TMF, which generate large, compounded returns as shown in the chart below:This proprietary ETF trading strategy is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year. Most traders dislike this type of strategy because it lacks lots of action and volatility. If you noticed, you won't find many professional advisors telling you to jump into the fast-moving hype stocks, and for a good reason - they know better and want to protect your hard-earned capital. #3 - The Power Of Slow & Steady Gains Are Mind-Bending!As I learned a long time ago (and this holds true for almost everything across the board), learning something new, like mastering how to trade slower, consistent strategies, can take some getting used to. Everything new will always be a challenge, but once you master something, it becomes simple, low stress, and you will experience more consistent results.Take a look at this data from an Atalanta Sosnoff report. This should get my point across about how powerful slow, boring, consistent returns pack a powerful punch and why thousands of traders from 82 countries follow my index and bond trading signals.Source: Eagle Asset Management.The Technical Index & Bond ETF trading strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% - 51% depending on ETF leverage, only 7 - 21% max drawdown). If you traded with the 2x or 3x ETFs, you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year and experienced that rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides but within a safer/smarter way.Passive trading styles like this are a bit different from those you may have traded in the past. My objectives consist of four very important concepts:Protect Capital At All Times.Trade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable).Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.Move to cash or money market fund when the index and bonds are both out of favor.Concluding Thoughts:In short, I hope this has helped confirm your thinking of trading less and focusing on more solid trade setups. Or maybe it has opened your eyes to the world of slow and steady gains wins the race, with much less stress and effort.If you are interested in learning more about TIBT – Technical Index & Bond Trader, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/twa 
Santa comes on a roller coaster this year! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Taking XAU/USD and NFP into consideration...

FXStreet News FXStreet News 05.01.2022 15:57
Nonfarm Payrolls in US is forecast to increase by 400,000 in December. Gold is likely to react more significantly to a disappointing jobs report than an upbeat one. Gold's movement has no apparent connection with NFP deviation four hours after the release. Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAU/USD’s pair reaction to the previous 18 NFP prints*. We present our findings as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets ready to release the December jobs report on Friday, January 7. Expectations are for a 400,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 210,000 increase in November. *We omitted the NFP data for March 2021, which was published on the first Friday of April, due to lack of volatility amid Easter Friday. Methodology We plotted gold price’s reaction to the NFP release at 15 minutes, one hour and four hours intervals after the release. Then we compared the gold price reaction to the deviation between the actual NFP release result and the expected result. We used the FXStreet Economic Calendar for data on deviation as it assigns a deviation point to each macroeconomic data release to show how big the divergence was between the actual print and the market consensus. For instance, the August NFP data missed the market expectation of 750,000 by a wide margin and the deviation was -1.49. On the other hand, February’s NFP print of 536,000 against the market expectation of 182,000 was a positive surprise with the deviation posting 1.76 for that particular release. A better-than-expected NFP print is seen as a USD-positive development and vice versa. Finally, we calculated the correlation coefficient (r) to figure out at which time frame gold had the strongest correlation with an NFP surprise. When r approaches -1, it suggests there is a significant negative correlation, while a significant positive correlation is identified when r moves toward 1. Since gold is defined as XAU/USD, an upbeat NFP reading should cause it to edge lower and point to a negative correlation. Results There were ten negative and seven positive NFP surprises in the previous 17 releases, excluding data for March 2021. On average, the deviation was -0.93 on disappointing prints and 0.47 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $3.87 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold gained $0.03 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a disappointing print. However, the correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above don’t even come close to being significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the releases with the r standing at -0.4. One hour after the release, the correlation weakens with the r rising to -0.23 and there is virtually no correlation to speak of four hours after the release with the r approaching 0. Several factors could be coming into play to weaken gold’s correlation with NFP surprises. Several hours after the NFP release on Friday, investors could look to book their profits toward the London fix, causing gold to reverse its direction after the initial reaction. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields’ movements have been impacting gold’s action lately and a decline in the benchmark 10-year T-bond yield on an upbeat jobs report could make it difficult for the USD to gather strength against its rivals, limiting XAU/USD’s downside.    
Shiba Inu price could surge 30% if SHIB can overcome this hurdle [Video]

Shiba Inu price could surge 30% if SHIB can overcome this hurdle [Video]

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.01.2022 15:56
Shiba Inu price bounces off the daily demand zone, extending from $0.0000269 to $0.0000293.Increased buying pressure could propel SHIB by 31% to sweep the range high at $0.0000399.A four-hour candlestick close below $0.0000269 will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis.Shiba Inu price is at an interesting point in its journey since it has produced two areas of liquidity in the opposite direction. Adding to this exciting development is one hurdle that blocks the path for SHIB and might hinder the bullish outlook.Shiba Inu price prepares for a rallyShiba Inu price set up two swing lows at $0.0000283 on December 20, 2021, and January 5, creating the double bottom setup. Interestingly, this setup took place inside the daily demand zone, extending from $0.0000269 to $0.0000293.While SHIB has recovered above this area, it needs to rally 12% before it faces the trading range’s midpoint at $0.0000341. Clearing this barrier will lead the meme coin to face $0.0000349, which harbors the buy-stop liquidity resting above it. Shiba Inu price needs to clear $0.0000349 before it can reach the range high at $0.0000399, completing its 31% ascent.SHIB/USDT 4-hour chartDepicting the importance of the hurdle at $0.0000349 is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model. This on-chain metric shows that roughly 110,570 addresses that purchased 82,785 billion SHIB tokens at an average price of $0.0000350 are underwater.Therefore, Shiba Inu price needs to flip this barrier to reduce the selling pressure from holders trying to break even.Beyond this area, the resistance barriers thin out until $0.0000680, supporting the bullish outlook detailed above.SHIB GIOMFurther indicating the oversold nature of Shiba Inu price is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased SHIB over the past month.Currently, 30-day MVRV is hovering at -11.53%, an opportunity zone, suggesting that SHIB holders are at a loss and are less likely to sell their tokens. Moreover, long-term holders tend to accumulate in this area, which could serve as a significant source of buying pressure and could be the reason to kick-start an uptrend.SHIB MVRVWhile things are looking up for Shiba Inu price, a four-hour candlestick close below the daily demand zone’s lower limit at $0.0000269 will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. This development could trigger a crash, knocking Shiba Inu price to retest the $0.0000237 support level.
Honeymoon Is Over?

Honeymoon Is Over?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.01.2022 16:03
S&P 500 didn‘t shake off the post-FOMC minutes selloff in the least – and credit markets don‘t offer much short-term clarity either. Probably the brightest sign comes from the intraday reversal in financials higher – but tech still isn‘t catching breadth, which is key to the 500-strong index recovery. Bonds remained in the count down mode, as in not yet having regained composure and risk-on posture.The bottom might not be in, taking more time to play out – if we see a really strong non-farm payrolls figure, the odds of Fed tapering and rate hiking seriously drawing nearer, would be bolstered – to the detriment of most assets. So, we could be looking at a weak entry to today‘s S&P 500 session. But as the data came in at measly 199K, more uncertainty is introduced – will they or won‘t they (taper this fast and hike) – which works to drive chop and volatility.We‘re looking at another risk-off day today – and a reflexive but relatively tame rally in quality debt instruments. Crude oil is likely to be least affected, followed by copper as the red metals takes a second look at its recent weakness going at odds with broader commodities strength. Precious metals look to be a better bet in weathering the tightening into a weak economy storm than cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNeither tech nor value offered clues for today‘s session – the downswing overall feels as having some more to go still, and that‘s based on the charts only. Add in the fundamentals, and it could get tougher still.Credit MarketsHYG upswing solidly rejected, and not even high volume helped the bulls – the dust doesn‘t look to be settled here either.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver feel the heat, and it might not be yet over in the short run, miners say. Still, note the big picture – we‘re still in a long sideways consolidation where the bears are unable to make lasting progress.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are enjoying the advantage here – firmly in the driver‘s seat. Pullback are being bought, and will likely continue being bought – the upcoming maximum downside will be very indicative of bulls‘ strength to overcome $80 lastingly.CopperCopper‘s misleading weakness continues, and similarly to precious metals, it‘s bidding its time as no heavy chart damage is being inflicted through this dillydallying.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are in a weaker spot, and the bearish pressure may easily increase here even more. This doesn‘t look to be the time to buy yet.SummaryS&P 500 still remains on edge and under pressure until convincing signs of turnaround develop – yesterday‘s session didn‘t qualify. With further proof of challenged real economy, a fresh uncertainty (how‘s that going to weather the hawkish Fed, and are they to listen and attenuate, or not?) is being introduced – short-term chop would give way to an increase in volatility. In the non-farm payrolls aftermath, markets haven‘t yet made up their minds – it‘s the riskier end of the asset classes to take the heat the most here (starting with cryptos). Don‘t look though for a tremendous rush into Treasuries – tech decoupling from the rising yields would be a first welcome sign of a local bottom.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Financial Sector Starts To Rally Towards The $43.60 Upside Target

Financial Sector Starts To Rally Towards The $43.60 Upside Target

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.01.2022 22:13
Near November 24, 2021, I published a research article suggesting the Financial Sector, XLF in particular, may bottom and start to move higher, targeting the $43.60 level. After watching XLF rotate lower and form multiple bottoms near $37.50, it appears to finally be starting a new breakout rally phase ahead of Q4:2021 earnings. Will it rally up to my $43.60 target level before the end of January 2022? And how far could it rally beyond my $43.60 target?Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension allowed me to target the $43.60 level. Duplicating that range and applying it to the top of the $43.60 target level will enable me to see a higher target range of $49.55. This upper target level would result from a 200% Fibonacci price rally from the original price range I identified back in late November 2021.Could it happen? Sure, it could happen. Financials are uniquely positioned to benefit from higher consumer engagement in almost all levels of the economy. Housing, consumer spending, credit/loan origination, fees and services, trading, and other services – they all combine into Banking and Financial Services. I expect Q4:2021 to show robust consumer engagement and housing data, likely prompting many financial firms' strong revenues/earnings results.My original financial sector (xlf) research article included (below) for you to review:The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Sector (XLF) may have frightened some traders, but my research suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60 – a more than +11% move. The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations strongly into the first quarter of 2022. Unless something big breaks this market trend, traders should continue to expect a “melt-up” bullish price trend through at least early January 2022.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The Financial Sector continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue data each quarter. The way consumers and assets prices have reacted after the COVID market collapse says quite a bit about the ability of financial firms to generate future profits. Financial firms actively engage in financial services, traditional banking, real estate, and other investments, and corporate financing. The rising inflation trends and consumer spending activities suggest the US economy is still rallying after the COVID stimulus and recovery.Financials May Rally 10% to 15%, or more, by January 2022My analysis of XLF suggests this recent pullback in price may stall and start a new bullish price rally targeting the $43.60 level – a full 100% Fibonacci Price Extension of the last rally in XLF.This Daily XLF chart shows the extended rally in early 2021 and the brief pause in the price rally between June 2021 and early September 2021. Now that we've entered Q4:2021 and the US economy appears to be strengthening in the post-COVID recovery, my expectations are that most sectors, and the US major indexes, will rally throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022.This recent pullback in XLF sets up a solid buying opportunity for traders targeting a +10% rally that may last well into January/February 2022 – or longer.Longer-term Financial Trends Suggest Another Rally Above $44 May Start SoonOver the past 6+ months, moderate rally phases in XLF have shown a range of about $4.00 to $4.50. I've highlighted two recent rally phases in XLF on this longer-term XLF Daily chart below with gold rectangles. I believe the next rally from the recent pullback will be similar in size and prompt a moderate upward price move targeting the $43.60 level – or higher.Although there are some concerns related to the continuing recovery in the US markets, I believe the momentum of the US recovery and the strength in the US Dollar will push many US sectors higher over the next 60+ days. Closing out Q4:2021 and starting Q1:2022 with a fairly strong rally that may surprise many traders.The Financial sector is likely to present very strong Q4:2021 revenues and earnings data as long as the global markets don't push some crisis event or other issue that could detract from the US economic recovery. Right now, the biggest issues seem to be China and Europe.Concluding thoughtsMy opinion is that any moderate price weakness in the Financial sector will be short-lived and will resolve into a bullish price rally, or "melt-upward" type of trend, as we move into early December 2021. Once the US Debt Ceiling issue is resolved, I believe the Financial sector will begin a very strong rally pushing prices above $44 or $45 as Q4:2021 earnings expectations drive investors' focus into Technology, Consumer Retail, Financials, and Real Estate.The strength of the US Dollar is driving large amounts of capital into US assets and stocks right now. Based on my research, it is very likely that the US major indexes and certain sectors will continue to rally into early January 2022. If my analysis proves accurate, we may see a +11% to +18% rally in XLF before the end of January.If you are interested in learning more about how my strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Will 2022~23 Require A Different Strategy For Traders/Investors? Part III

Will 2022~23 Require A Different Strategy For Traders/Investors? Part III

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 08.01.2022 13:50
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - Part IIIThis last part of our multi-part article compares trading styles amidst the increasing price volatility and extended hyperbolic trending. We'll explore what we've witnessed in the US markets over the past 5+ years and highlight what to expect throughout 2022. Additionally, we'll highlight and feature the strategic advantages of our advanced Lazy-Bull strategies.Lazy-Bull Rides Big Trends & Avoids Excessive RisksMany people are inherently opposed to the Lazy-Bull strategy because they've been conditioned to think trading requires actively seeking various opportunities every week. We don't quite see it that way. Instead, we see the opportunity for growth and consistency existing in taking 4 to 12+ strategic trades per year while the markets set up broad momentum moves/trends. Our objective is not to trade excessively just for the sake of trading. Instead, we want to take advantage of when the markets enter opportunistic periods of trending and ride those trends as far as they go.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!This example Weekly SPY chart showing our TTI trading strategy highlights the growth phases in various trend stages. Notice the GREEN and RED sections on this chart where our system has identified directional changes in the major price trends. Over the past 11+ years, there have been numerous bullish price trend phases resulting in 12 months to 36+ months bullish price trend trends. These major price cycles make up part of the advantage of the Lazy-Bull strategy.We are not actively seeking the strongest stock symbols throughout these trends. Instead, we are simply relying on the strength of the US major indexes to carry our trades further into profits as the market's trend. The TTI strategy is a "set it – and forget it" type of strategy until the strategy generates a new entry or exit trigger.Volatility & Price Rotation Make 2022 More Dangerous Than 2021 – What Next?Our research shows 2022 will likely continue to exhibit increased price volatility and bigger price rotation. Meaning 2022 could be very dangerous for shorter-term strategy traders as volatility levels may disrupt traditional stop boundaries or other aspects of their defined strategies.It is important to understand how and when these issues creep into a strategy and attempt to move above these issues.Looking at the Q1 through Q4 data using our proprietary Data mining utility, I'll give you my insight related to the data and what I believe is likely to happen in 2022. Remember, this data consolidated the past 28-29 years of trends in the SPY to present these results – going back to 1993. That means that this data is compiled through several various price trends, major market peaks, major market bottoms, and various volatility levels along the way.Q:2022 AnalysisQ1 data suggests an overall positive/upward price trend is likely in 2022, with the Total Monthly Sum across 29 years totaling 37.94. Broken into annual gains, that translates into an expected $1.30 gain in the SPY in Q1:2022.The Total Monthly NEG (negative) range appears to be more than double the Total Monthly POS (positive) range. However, we may see some price volatility in Q1:2022 that surprises the markets. For example, maybe the US Fed makes surprise rate increases? Perhaps it relates to some other foreign market event disrupting the US markets? I don't know what it will be, but I feel some market event in Q1 is likely, and this event may prompt a fairly large downward price rotation in the SPY.Overall, I believe Q1:2022 will end slightly higher than the end of Q4:2021 levels and may see the SPY attempt to break above $490~500 on stronger earnings and continue the market's bullish price phase.Q2:2022 AnalysisThe second quarter seems a bit more stable in overall price appreciation trends. The data shows a shallow NEG value compared to a moderately strong POS value for Q2. Because of this, I believe the second quarter of 2022 will slide into a relatively strong upward Melt-Up type of trend after a potentially volatile Q1:2022.The Total Monthly Sum value is higher in Q2 than in Q1, suggesting Q2 may exhibit a stronger upward momentum as a more apparent trend direction sets up after the Q1 volatility.The US Fed will likely attempt to aggressively reduce its balance sheet throughout Q2 and into Q3:2022 if my expectations are accurate. This may create some additional market volatility in Q2 and Q3:2022 – but I suspect the US Fed will attempt to conduct a lot of this activity relatively quietly – almost behind the market strength/trends.Q3:2022 AnalysisQ3 shows data that is somewhat similar to Q1 overall. I interpret this data as showing moderate bullish trend strength within the typical mid-Summer US market stagnation in trend. Mid-Summer trends tend to be a bit more sideways in nature. Many traders are vacationing, enjoying the Summer weather, and/or not paying attention to market trends and dynamics. Because of this, I expect the July through September months of 2022 to be relatively quiet and mundane.Additionally, we have the mid-term US elections set up in November 2022. The July through September months will be packed with political posturing, campaigning, and various events filled with antics to distract the markets from focusing on real issues. As a result, election years tend to be somewhat quiet – especially in the 2 to 5 months leading up to the actual election date.The end of Q3:2022 and the start of Q4:2022 could see some bigger, more aggressive price trending. The elections, ramping up of the early holiday/Christmas seasons, and the end of Summer may prompt traders to move into undervalued assets or other opportunist trades seeking to ride out an end-of-year trend. Right now may be a great time to identify strong swing/position trades to close out 2022 with some nice profits.Q4:2022 AnalysisQ4:2022 shows a very strong bullish trend potential, with the POS results greatly surpassing the NEG results. Historically, this is because of the traditional Santa Rally phase of the US markets and may play a big role in 2022 if the US economy stays strong throughout 2022.Overall, I expect the US Fed to act in a manner that supports the "transitioning" of the global markets away from excessive risks while attempting to nudge inflationary trends lower. There is talk that the US Fed may take aggressive action to combat inflation, but I see the Fed's actions are more subtle than brutal at this stage.I believe the US Federal Reserve is keenly aware of the fragility of the global markets after many years of excessive easy-money policies. In my opinion, the current market environment is more similar to the late 1960s and 1970s than the 1990s and early 2000 time frame. We've seen a massive influx of capital in the global markets – push all traditional economic metrics "off the charts" after the COVID event. That capital will work itself throughout the global economy, disrupting more at-risk companies and nations' capabilities, but still prompt a moderate growth component for many years to come.Volatility, Trading, And Profiting From Bigger TrendsThe entire point was to discuss the opportunities of moving above the current excessive price volatility and adopting a trading strategy that is more suited to bigger, broader market price trends. In 2019, I warned that 2020 was likely to be very volatile.In February 2021, I warned that 2021 was likely to be very volatile for certain market sectors: WILL 2021 PROMPT A BIG ROTATION IN SECTOR TRENDS? – PART IIIn early January 2020, I warned the US markets may be set up for a "Waterfall Selloff": ARE WE SETTING UP FOR A WATERFALL SELLOFF?Today, I'm suggesting that price volatility will likely peak sometime in 2022 or 2023 and begin to subside as the excesses of the past 8+ years continue to process through what I'm calling the "transitioning phase" of the markets. This market phase is more of a deleveraging and revaluation phase which started in February 2020 – in various sectors. It has now extended into many global economies where excess risk factors are being addressed and revalued (think China, Asia, and other areas).This transitioning process will likely continue in 2022 and 2023, meaning traders need to be prepared for the increased price volatility and adopt a style of trading that will allow them to profit from these bigger trends. This is why I'm suggesting taking a higher-level approach to trade over the next 24 to 36+ months.Certain market trends will still allow traders to pick up some fantastic profits as sectors and various undervalued symbols gain momentum. Overall, though, I feel that 2022 and 2023 will be moderately difficult for shorter-term trading strategies and that a higher-level, longer-term approach may be a much more beneficial approach.Want To Learn More About My Long-Term Investing Strategy?My Technical Investor strategy is uniquely suited toward this type of trading style. It is simple, longer-term, and rises above the moderate price volatility that disrupts many shorter-term trading strategies.Get ready; 2022 will be an excellent year for traders with big trends and bigger volatility. We have to stay ahead of these trends to protect our capital and allow it to grow more efficiently. The risks of more traditionally moderate volatility systems getting chewed up in this extreme environment will continue. So be prepared to move towards a more protective trading style to survive the next 12 to 24 months.If you are interested in learning more about how my Technical Investor (and other trading strategies) can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition, I invite you to visit  www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Miners Should Prepare a Pillow: Gold's Hard Landing Can Hurt

Miners Should Prepare a Pillow: Gold's Hard Landing Can Hurt

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 07.01.2022 15:54
  As in sports, a weak market streak can reverse in the next season. However, the precious metals team looks like it’s about to drop out of the league. While gold, silver, and mining stocks were in the holiday spirit during the final weeks of 2021, I warned on Jan. 4 that the GDXJ ETF’s sleigh was headed for an epic crash. I wrote: The GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021 (early August). Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term. After the junior mining stocks ETF proceeded to decline by more than 6% in two days, my short position rang in the New Year with solid gains. What’s more, with the GDXJ ETF likely to break below its 2021 lows over the medium term, winter woes should materialize before a long-term buying opportunity emerges. Please see below: Likewise, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling an ominous outcome for the senior miners, I warned that a sell-off was likely on the horizon. For context, I highlighted the historical similarities with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the GDX ETF’s weakness accelerating on Jan. 5/6, the senior miners have declined sharply in recent days. In addition, the current price action mirrors the senior miners’ ominous performance in July/August 2021 – just like I’ve been describing it for a few weeks now. As a result, the previous corrective upswing is likely over, and the GDX ETF should confront lower lows sooner rather than later. For context, a breakdown below the 2021 lows should materialize over the medium term, and the forecast for gold, as well as gold stocks, is bearish for the next several weeks / months. However, the milestone may not occur over the next few days. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish signals are present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because the price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As such, while we’ve entered a consolidation phase, this week’s selling pressure has been quite ferocious. Thus, the implications are not bullish but bearish. Finally, the GDX/GDXJ ratio continues to perform as expected. For example, I warned throughout 2021 that the ratio was destined for devaluation. ith the metric kicking off 2022 with another decline, the GDXJ ETF continues to underperform the GDX ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners offers a great risk to reward trade-off. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks began 2022 with the same weakness that plagued them in 2021. While the worst performers one year often become the best performers the next, the charts signal more weakness ahead. As a result, while the precious metals are poised to soar over the long term, lower lows will likely materialize before their secular uptrends resume. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500: Consolidation and a Mild Reaction to the Jobs Data

S&P 500: Consolidation and a Mild Reaction to the Jobs Data

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 07.01.2022 15:54
  Stocks extended their downtrend yesterday, but the index closed virtually flat. So was it a short-term bottom? The S&P 500 index lost 0.1% on Thursday, Jan. 6, as it fluctuated following the Wednesday’s sell-off of almost 2%. The market reached new local low at 4,671.26 before bouncing back closer to the 4,700 level. So it traded almost 150 points below the Tuesday’s record high of 4,818.62. The recent consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern. And the market got back to its November-December trading range. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,700-4,720, and the next resistance level remains at around 4,750. On the other hand, the support level is now at 4,650, marked by some previous local highs. The S&P 500 remains close to the November’s-December’s consolidation local highs, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Price Broke Below the Trend Line Apple stock broke below its two-month long upward trend line on Wednesday after reaching the new record high of $182.94 on Tuesday. So far, it looks like a downward correction and the nearest important support level is at $165-170, marked by the previous highs and lows. Is this a medium-term topping pattern? It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower today. So the volatility is on the light side after the mixed monthly jobs data release from this morning. We may see some more short-term fluctuations and possibly an intraday upward correction. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 fluctuated following its Wednesday’s sell-off. Jobs data release was mixed and rather neutral for the markets. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Fed Hawks Grow Stronger. Will Gold Stand Its Ground?

Fed Hawks Grow Stronger. Will Gold Stand Its Ground?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 06.01.2022 16:43
  2022 may be the year of Fed hawks. After tapering, they may hike rates and then start quantitative tightening. Will they tear gold apart? During the Battle of the Black Gate in the War of the Ring, Pippin : “The eagles are coming!”. It was a sign of hope for all those fighting with Sauron. Now, I could exclaim that hawks are coming, but that wouldn’t necessarily give hope to anyone fighting the bearish trends in the gold market. Yesterday (January 5, 2022), the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting, held in mid-December. Although the publication doesn’t reveal any revolutions in US monetary policy, it strengthens the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed. Why? First, the FOMC participants acknowledged that inflation readings had been higher, more persistent, and widespread than previously anticipated. For instance, they pointed to the fact that the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, which trims the most extreme readings and is calculated by the Dallas Fed, had reached 2.81% in November 2021, the highest level since mid-1992, as the chart below shows. It indicates that inflation is not limited to a few categories but has a broad-based character. The Committee members also noted several factors that could support strong inflationary pressure this year. They mentioned rising housing costs and rents, more widespread wage growth driven by labor shortages, and more prolonged global supply-side frictions, which could be exacerbated by the emergence of the Omicron variant; as well as easier passing on higher costs of labor and material to customers. In particular, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages could likely last longer and be more widespread than previously thought, which could limit businesses’ ability to address strong demand. Second, the FOMC admitted that the US labor market could be tighter than previously thought. They judged that it could reach maximum employment very soon, or that it had largely achieved it, as indicated by near-record rates of quits and job vacancies, labor shortages, and an acceleration in wage growth: Many participants judged that, if the current pace of improvement continued, labor markets would fast approach maximum employment. Several participants remarked that they viewed labor market conditions as already largely consistent with maximum employment. The consequence of higher inflation and a tighter labor market would be, of course, a more hawkish monetary policy. Although the central bankers didn’t discuss the appropriate number of interest rate hikes, they agreed that they should raise the federal funds rate sooner or faster: Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated. Additionally, Fed officials also discussed quantitative tightening. They generally agreed that – given fast economic growth, a strong labor market, high inflation, and bigger Fed assets – the balance sheet runoff should start closer to the policy rate liftoff and be faster than in the previous normalization episode: Almost all participants agreed that it would likely be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. However, participants judged that the appropriate timing of balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to that of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee's previous experience. They noted that current conditions included a stronger economic outlook, higher inflation, and a larger balance sheet and thus could warrant a potentially faster pace of policy rate normalization.   Implications for Gold What do the recent FOMC minutes imply for the gold market? Well, referring once more to the Lord of the Rings, they are more like the Nazgûl that wreak despair rather than the Eagles offering hope. They were hawkish – and, thus, negative for gold prices. The minutes revealed that after tapering of quantitative easing, the Fed could also reduce its overall asset holdings to curb high inflation. In December, the US central bank accelerated the pace of tapering and signaled three interest rate increases in 2022. The minutes went even further, signaling a possibility of an earlier and faster rate hike and outright reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet: Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate. Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures. Hence, the price of gold responded accordingly to the FOMC minutes and declined from about $1,825 to $1,810, as the chart below shows. Luckily, there is a silver lining: the drop hasn’t been too big, at least so far. It may indicate that a lot of hawkish news has already been priced into gold, and that sentiment is rather bullish. However, the hawks haven’t probably said the last word yet. Please remember that the composition of the Committee will be more hawkish this year, but also that the mindset is changing among the members. For example, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the Committee’s most dovish members, said this week that the U.S. central bank would have to need to raise interest rates two times this year. Previously, he believed that the federal funds rate could stay at zero until at least 2024. Thus, although inflationary risk may provide support for gold, the yellow metal may find itself under hawkish fire in the upcoming weeks. We will see whether it will stand its ground, like the soldiers of Gondor. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Commodities - Crude Oil and Natural Gas in times of Omicron and low temperatures

Commodities - Crude Oil and Natural Gas in times of Omicron and low temperatures

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 05.01.2022 17:19
  Happy new year, everyone! We hope that 2022 will be a prosperous one for all our readers. However, will it be successful for oil? Energy Market Updates Yesterday, crude oil prices ended higher, after a volatile session as US inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels – more than twice the previous week – which is another positive sign for demand. US inventories levels of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates stocks are again forecasted to fall by about 3 million more than expected last week. That would be another significant decline on the back of greater demand, according to estimated figures released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday. (Source: Investing.com) Crude oil prices stabilized near their 6-week highs following the OPEC+ group meeting, which maintained a limited increase in production of 400k barrels/day (no surprise). It is therefore a matter of maintaining an increase in production for the seventh consecutive month. This also shows that the organization was confident and believed in the resistance of global oil demand despite the recent restrictions implemented by several governments scared by Omicron, even though those travel restrictions may likely delay the resumption of aviation demand. RBOB Gasoline (RBG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) WTI Crude Oil (CLG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the Henry Hub (US benchmark) is slowly climbing as temperatures are dropping in many regions, while the European benchmark, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), rallied 3.5% as European gas prices remain extremely volatile due to reduced exports from Russia (notably via the Yamal pipeline) but also via Ukraine. The upward momentum is also linked to weather forecasts, such as colder temperatures and frost encountering the European continent in the coming days and weeks, which may obviously have a stimulating effect on gas demand. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold: No Cheer in the New Year

Gold: No Cheer in the New Year

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 06.01.2022 12:22
  What a way to start a year! Gold just faked its comeback before moving to new yearly lows. That’s a very bearish way for a market to start the year. Given that miners underperformed gold and silver briefly outperformed it, we have a very bearish storm brewing for the next couple of weeks / months. On Jan 3, I wrote the following: The year 2021 is over, 2022 has finally arrived. However, why does the current price action look “sooo last year”? Because the patterns appear to be repeating and the clearest similarity is present in the key precious metal – gold itself. Gold prices moved higher in late December, and it happened on low volume. The rally caused the stochastic indicator to move above 80 and the RSI above 50. That’s exactly what happened in both: late 2021 and late 2020. What does it mean? Well, it means that we shouldn’t trust this rally, as it could end abruptly, just like the one that we saw a year ago. Besides, gold corrected 61.8% of the preceding decline (so it moved to its most classic Fibonacci retracement), which means that – technically – what we saw in the past two weeks was just a correction, not the beginning of a new rally. And what happened next? Gold declined, faked its comeback, and then declined again to new yearly lows. 2022 continues to be a down year for gold, and this is particularly revealing, because early January is the time when the buy-backs should – theoretically – happen. I’m referring to the tendency for investors to exit losing positions (and – in tune with my expectations and against expectations of almost everyone else – 2021 was a down year for gold, silver, and mining stocks, after all) close to the end of the year, in order to harvest the tax loss, and then to get back into the market in early January. Despite the above tendency, gold is down, silver is down, and mining stocks are down as well. This shows that the precious metals market is weak (which has been clear since gold invalidated its breakout above the 2011 high in 2020) and is unlikely to soar significantly (in terms of hundreds of dollars) unless it slides first. Besides, at the beginning of major rallies, gold stocks tend to lead the way up. And right now, it’s exactly the opposite. The upper part of the above chart features the GDXJ ETF – proxy for junior mining stocks, the middle part features the GLD ETF – proxy for gold, and the bottom part features the S&P 500 Index. The red lines compare the previous stock market highs to what happened in junior miners, and the dotted lines show what juniors did when gold formed its recent highs and lows. In short, junior gold mining stocks are underperforming both: gold, and other stocks. This is as bearish as it can get, given the current situation regarding the USD Index (which is in a medium-term uptrend) and the situation in the interest rates, which are not only about to go up, but the expectations of them going up are becoming more and more hawkish. And that’s no accident either, as it’s in tune with the current political narrative in the U.S. – inflation is currently presented as the major enemy that needs to be dealt with. In other words, as the situation in interest rates is likely to become even more hawkish and the USD Index is likely to move higher, gold is likely to go down, and so – eventually – will the general stock market. And since junior mining stocks have already proven over and over again that they magnify declines on both markets, they are likely to fall particularly hard, when the above markets decline. We gained quite a lot based on the decline in the juniors in 2021, but it seems that the gains that could be reaped in 2022 (of course, I can’t and I’m not promising any kind of specific performance for any market) based on junior miners’ decline (and then their revival) could be breathtaking – but as always, only if one is positioned correctly for both major moves. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USD to CAD chart is (probably as expected) linked with jobs stats

USD to CAD chart is (probably as expected) linked with jobs stats

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.01.2022 10:30
EURUSD tests key resistance The US dollar retreated after December’s nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. The pair has been in a narrowing range between 1.1270 and 1.1365. The previous fall below 1.1280 added pressure on the buy side, though it turned out to be an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate at a bargain. A break above the resistance could end the sideways action and trigger a runaway rally towards 1.1460. The RSI surged into the overbought area and may cause a brief pullback above 1.1295. USDCAD tests daily support The loonie rallied after Canada added twice as many jobs as expected in December. The year-end sell-off met strong bids near the daily support at 1.2620. But the rebound came to halt at the supply zone around 1.2810, which used to be a support from the previous consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone has restrained the upward momentum. 1.2730 is a fresh resistance as price action is about to retest the critical level at 1.2620. A bearish breakout could trigger a plunge to 1.2540. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 edged lower as rising CPI in the eurozone argues in favor of tightening. The index saw stiff selling pressure right under the all-time high at 16300. A bearish RSI divergence in this major supply area indicates a lack of commitment from the bulls as buying slows down. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has led to a drop below 16100, a warning sign for a steeper correction. 15800 is the next key support. A breakout could send the index to 15500 at the base of the latest rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto in general became even more appealing recently

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto in general became even more appealing recently

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.01.2022 10:37
The cryptocurrency market received moderate support from retail buyers over the weekend. Over the past 24 hours, the capitalisation of all coins rose 0.22%, according to CoinMarketCap, approaching $1.97 trillion. The top altcoins lost 11-19% over 7 days but found buyers over the weekend. The $2 trillion mark in total crypto valuation turned into local resistance last week, from where pressure has intensified. However, a strong buy-the-deep mood has kept the market from forming a downward spiral. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was stuck at 23 over the weekend, indicating extreme fear. The index has been hovering at the lower half of the scale since November 18th. Optimists, however, may note that the indicator has bounced back from the 10 level. The dip here in May and July coincided with the lows within the impulse, hinting at the potential for some technical rebound. Technical analysis also suggests a rebound in BTCUSD, with the RSI on daily charts showing attempts to move up from the oversold area below 30 and the price hovering near the reversal area in September. A longer-term view of the cryptocurrency market makes one more cautious about its prospects. Bitcoin has been in a downward corridor since November last year, having fallen to its lower boundary by the end of last week. Local overselling is a chance for a rebound, but the overall trend is still downwards. Cryptocurrency investors should not dismiss the idea of 4-year cycles in Bitcoin affecting the entire sector just yet. According to this hypothesis, 2022 could turn out to be a repeat of 2018 and 2014 - bear market years after a surge in the previous two years. Thus, it is worth paying increased attention to whether the crypto market manages to return to growth in the coming days and weeks. A strong start to the year will put these fears to rest.
Looking for stability in EU, awaiting next moves of FED

Looking for stability in EU, awaiting next moves of FED

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 10.01.2022 14:46
After what appeared to be a mixed Asian session, European indices started Monday's trading session attempting to regain some ground after significant fluctuations seen last week. While there is a lack of major data releases today, this week could be very important for investors as the US earning season begins and as we await Powell’s testimony related to his renomination as FED chair which has proven to be quite positive for markets this far. In addition, news regarding the ongoing spread of the Omicron variant could continue to significantly impact both stocks and commodities, which as of late have been increasingly uncertain assets. Oil traders focus on OPEC production as prices fluctuate As mentioned previously, oil prices have been increasingly volatile as uncertainty grows regarding the balance between supply and demand with OPEC on one side determining the production and rate of increase, while we’ve seen a situation of significant fluctuation in demand in the short term as news continues to noticeably impact prospects for oil. On the other hand, traders await reassurance from oil producing countries as some doubts have emerged regarding their ability to maintain an adequate supply as demand continues to rebound as a result of the post pandemic recovery. While there is also the possibility that the Iran nuclear talks could bring an increase of oil supply to the market, most traders are focusing on whether or not there could be actual shortages which could cause significant increases in price volatility and ultimately lead to a domino effect across various sectors.
BTC (Bitcoin) price moves beetween 40 and 50k levels

BTC (Bitcoin) price moves beetween 40 and 50k levels

FXStreet News FXStreet News 11.01.2022 16:04
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $40,000 in Monday's trading. BTC price sees a sharp recovery and a break above Monday’s high. As a broad recovery looks to be underway, expect bulls to target $50,000 in the first phase. Bitcoin (BTC) saw sellers squeeze out their final drop of gains on Monday after demand briefly dipped below $40,000. This level is in line with the low of the September 21 decline last year and BTC price bounced off the monthly S1 support level and a longer-term red descending trend line. Expect a turnaround from here, with demand switching to the buy-side with risk-on back on the front foot. BTC price set for a 180-turn back towards $50,000 Bitcoin price has given market participants quite a lot of pain at the start of 2022. Investors that came on strong out of the gate saw their investments devalue by 17%. On the horizon, however, the clouds start to evaporate, and during the European session, a global risk-on tone across assets is set to soothe and possibly erase the negative headwinds that were dictating price action these past ten days of the new year. Technically, BTC is set for recovery with an entry at around $39,800 and a bounce off the September 21 low, the monthly S1 support level and a rejection by the red descending trend line that formed since November 10. With the turnaround currently in global markets, cryptocurrencies are seeing a tailwind emerge that is set to break the high of Monday and could see it hit $44,088 later today. If markets can hold on to this momentum, expect that by Thursday bulls will attack the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the historical $48,760 level, which is then just inches away from $50,000, potentially within sight by the end of the week. BTC/USD daily chart With this turnaround, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will likely see a bounce off the oversold border and start to drift towards the mid-50 area. This could open the door for short sellers to try and enter with sizeable short positions once $44,088 has been hit, and to seek to push BTC price further below $40,000, with $38,073 as the first price target. This will, at the same time, firmly disappoint investors who hoped to reach $50,000. Such a move, however, would most probably go hand in hand with global market sentiment returning to a depressive move.
Would they sell S&P 500 (SPX)?

Would they sell S&P 500 (SPX)?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.01.2022 15:41
S&P 500 reversed sharp intraday losses, and credit markets moved in a decisive daily risk-on fashion. Turnarounds anywhere you look – HYG, TLT, XLK… but will that last? VIX having closed where it opened, points to still some unfinished job on the upside, meaning the bears would return shortly – but given how fast they gave up the great run yesterday, I‘m not looking for them to make too much progress too soon. Good to have taken yesterday‘s short profits off the table. Assessing the charts, it‘s great (for the bulls) that tech liked the long-dated Treasuries reversal to such a degree – and that value closed little changed on the day (its candle is certainly ominously looking). As a result, we‘re looking at a budding reversal that can still go both ways, and revisit 4,650s in the bearish case at least. Remember that tech apart from $NYFANG lagged, and financials aren‘t yet broken either, meaning that the credit market upswing better be taken with a pinch of salt. True, rates have risen fast since the New Year, and the pace of yield increases has to moderate. I‘m of the opinion that yesterday‘s good Nasdaq showing hasn‘t yet turned tech bullish, and that we still face a move lower ahead. As written yesterday: (…) This is part of the flight from growth into value, which we will see more of in 2022. The same for still unpleasantly high inflation which won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed – not even if they really allow notes and bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds already in Mar. The train has left the station more than 6 or 9 months ago when they were pushing the transitory thesis I had been disputing. We have truly moved into the persistently high inflation paradigm, and it would be accompanied by wage inflation and strong precious metals and commodities runs. We‘re looking at very good year in gold and silver while the turbulence in stocks is just starting, and we have quite a few percent more to go on the downside. Oil and copper are set up for great gains too. This will be a year when monetary and fiscal policy work at odds, when they contradict each other. Inflation would catch up with the economic growth in that inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise. Signs of real estate softening would also appear – it‘s all about housing starts. While rates would rise (2.00% in 10-year Treasury is perfectly achievable), it won‘t catch up with inflation in the least – hello some more negative rates, and financial repression driving real assets. Rhymes perfectly with the 1970s. Stocks aren‘t yet out of the woods, the yesterday opened oil position is already profitable, cryptos likewise maintain a gainful slant to the Sunday-opened short – meanwhile, precious metals are once again catching breadth to rise, and the same goes for copper. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bid arrived, and the bottom may or may not be in – in spite of the beautiful lower knot, I‘m leaning towards the hypothesis that there would be another selling wave. Credit Markets HYG reversal looks certainly more credible than the S&P 500 one. LQD though didn‘t rise, which is a little surprising – on the other hand though, that‘s part of the risk-on posture, which would have been made clearer by LQD upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver position is improving, and I like the miners coming alive. The stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation. Crude Oil Crude oil looks to have declined as much as it could in the short run – I‘m looking for another run to take out $80 – see how little ground oil stocks lost? Copper Copper didn‘t outshine, didn‘t disappoint – its long sideways move continues, the red metal remains well bid, and would play catch up to the other commodities – the bears aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months. Bitcoin and Ethereum Just as I wrote yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading on a weak note, and the sellers are likely to return soon. This certainly doesn‘t look like a good time to buy. Summary S&P 500 turnaround has a question mark on it – one that I‘m more inclined to think would lead to further selling than a run above 4,720. The tech and bonds progress would be challenged again – we‘re still way too early in the Fed tightening cycle when the headwinds are only becoming to be appreciated. The room for negative surprises and kneejerk reactions is still there (the job market isn‘t standing really in the Fed‘s way), and it would likely take stocks (and cryptos) down while being less of an issue for real assets – be it commodities or precious metals. Wage pressures and unfilled vacancies are likely to last, meaning the inflation would be persistent – the staglationary era coupled with inflation-induced economic slowdown surprise I mentioned yesterday, awaits. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold - Fed moves are likely to reveal the shape of the future

Gold - Fed moves are likely to reveal the shape of the future

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 11.01.2022 15:10
  Job creation disappointed in December. However, it could not be enough to counterweight rising real interest rates and save gold. On Thursday (January 6, 2022), I wrote that “the metal may find itself under hawk fire in the upcoming weeks”. Indeed, gold dropped sharply in the aftermath of the publication of the FOMC minutes. As the chart below shows, the hawkish Fed’s signal sent the price of the yellow metal from $1,826 to $1,789. This is because the minutes revealed that the Fed would be ready to cut its mammoth holdings of assets later this year. Previously, the US central bank was talking only about interest rate hikes and the ending of new asset purchases, i.e., quantitative easing. Now, the reverse process, i.e., quantitative tightening, is also on the table. What is surprising here is not the mere idea of shrinking the Fed’s assets – after all, they have risen to $8.7 trillion (see the chart above) – but its timing. Last time, the central bank started the normalization of its balance sheet only in 2018, nine years after the end of the Great Recession and four years after the completion of tapering. This time, QT may start within a few months after the end of tapering and the first interest rate hikes. It looks like 2022 will be a hot year for US monetary policy – and the gold market. Consequently, markets have been increasingly pricing in a more decisive Fed, which boosted bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates (10-year TIPS) jumped from -1.06% at the end of 2021 to -0.73 at the end of last week. The upward move in the interest rates is fundamentally negative for gold prices.   Implications for Gold Luckily for the yellow metal, nonfarm payrolls disappointed in December. Last month, the US labor market rose, adding just 199,000 jobs (see the chart below), well short of consensus estimates of 400,000. This negative surprise lifted gold prices slightly on Friday (January 7, 2021). The latest employment report suggests that labor shortages and the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus are holding back job creation and the overall economy. However, gold bulls shouldn’t count on weak job gains to trigger a sustainable rally in the precious metals. This is because the American economy is still approaching full employment. The unemployment rate declined further to 3.9% from 4.2% in November, as the chart below shows. The drop confirms that the US labor market is very tight, so weak job creation won’t discourage the Fed from hiking the federal funds rate. As a reminder, in December, FOMC members forecasted the unemployment rate to be 4.3% at the end of 2021. What is crucial here is that disappointing job gains reflect labor shortages rather than weak demand. Additionally, wage growth remains pretty fast, despite the decline in the annual rate from 5.1% in November to 4.7% in December. The key takeaway is that, despite disappointing job creation, the US economy is moving quickly towards full employment. The unemployment rate is at 3.9%, very close to the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. Hence, the latest employment situation report may only reinforce arguments for the Fed’s tightening cycle. This is fundamentally bad news for gold, as strengthened expectations of the interest rate hikes may boost real interest rates further and put the yellow metal under downward pressure. Some analysts believe that hawkish sentiment might be at its peak. I’m not so sure about that. I believe that monetary hawks haven’t said the last word yet, and that the normalization of the interest rates is still ahead of us. Anyway, Powell will appear in the Senate today, so we should get more clues about the prospects for monetary policy and gold this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
We might say interest rates became Topic #1

We might say interest rates became Topic #1

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 11.01.2022 14:10
  The imminent interest rate hike by the Fed is almost certain. Are investors' concerns justified and will it mean trouble for the precious metals?  While the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite recovered from sharp intraday losses on Jan. 10, investors’ mood swings signaled heightened anxiety. With the PMs whipsawing alongside the general stock market, more volatility should materialize in the weeks and months to come. To explain, with the Fed on a hawkish warpath to fight rampant inflation, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Jan. 10 that a resilient U.S. economy could prove problematic for the financial markets in 2022. “The consumer balance sheet has never been in better shape; they’re spending 25% more today than pre-COVID,” said Dimon. “Their debt-service ratio is better than it’s been since we’ve been keeping records for 50 years.” As for inflation and the Fed: “It’s possible that inflation is worse than they think and they raise rates more than people think. I personally would be surprised if it’s just four [interest rate] increases [in 2022],” he added. How would the financial markets react? Source: CNBC Singing a similar tune, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Jan. 10 that the Fed’s rate hike cycle could slaughter emerging markets. Its report revealed: “For most of last year, investors priced in a temporary rise in inflation in the United States given the unsteady economic recovery and a slow unravelling of supply bottlenecks. Now sentiment has shifted. Prices are rising at the fastest pace in almost four decades and the tight labor market has started to feed into wage increases.”   Volatile Days Ahead While I warned for all of 2021 that inflationary pressures were bullish for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields and bearish for the PMs, the IMF stated: “Faster Fed rate increases in response could rattle financial markets and tighten financial conditions globally. These developments could come with a slowing of US demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets.” As a result, even the IMF is anxiously bullish on the USD Index: For a good reason. With September, July, June, and May all gone by the wayside, now, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in March has risen to nearly 83%. For context, the probability of a March liftoff was less than 10% in early November. Please see below: Likewise, the market-implied probability of four rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 has risen to nearly 87%. Again, the probability was less than 50% in early November. Please see below: Why the material shift? Well, while I’ve been warning for months that rampant inflation would elicit a hawkish about-face from the Fed, investors are finally coming around to this reality. With inflation still running hot, market participants understand that pricing pressures won’t subside without policy responses from the Fed. As a result, the “transitory” narrative is dead, and investors have lost one of their staunchest allies. This means that predicting silver and gold at higher levels in the medium term might not be the best idea. To that point, Bank of America’s dove-hawk spectrum shows that the dovish brigade has lost several soldiers. With the hawks now on the offensive, the officials preaching monetary patience are few and far between.  Please see below: For context, Bank of America still places San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in the dovish bucket. However, I noted on Dec. 23 that she has materially shifted her stance in recent weeks: Source: The New York Times Furthermore, with inflationary pressures still bubbling, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit another all-time high of 236.2 in December, as “wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.6% month-over-month.” Please see below: On top of that, the cost of shipping from Shanghai, China, is still increasing. With the U.S. importing more goods from China than any other nation, the inflationary impact on the U.S. economy is material. Please see below: Finally, while the GDXJ ETF benefited from the NASDAQ Composite’s intraday reversal on Jan. 10, I warned on Oct. 26 that monetary policy tightening would eventually upend the junior miners. I wrote: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2015. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at tapering on May 22, 2013, the GDXJ ETF declined by 32% from May 22 until the taper began on Dec. 18. Moreover, the onslaught didn’t end there. Once the taper officially began, the GDXJ ETF enjoyed a relief rally (similar to what we’re witnessing now), as long-term interest rates declined and the PMs assumed that the worst was in the rearview. However, as the liquidity drain caught up to the junior miners over the medium term, the GDXJ ETF declined by another 36% from when the taper was announced on Dec. 18, 2013 until the end of 2015. To that point, with part one already on the books, the second act will likely unfold once the Fed formally begins its taper in “either mid-November or mid-December.” Thus, history implies that the GDXJ ETF still has plenty of downside left. While the junior miners' ETF has declined by more than 11% since Oct. 26, Goldman Sachs has come around to our way of thinking. Please see below: To explain, Goldman Sachs told its clients last week that the yellow metal has been following its ominous path since 2013/2014 (as you may recall, I’ve been writing about the 2013-now analogy for months). For context, the red line above tracks gold’s price action from July 2010 until December 2014, while the blue line above tracks gold’s price action from July 2019 until now. If you analyze the symmetrical overlay, you can see that the pair have been in sync for some time. Moreover, if you focus your attention on the red line’s plight as time passes, it’s clear why Goldman Sachs is warning its clients about “further downside risk”. To that point, with the investment bank forecasting a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate regime change in 2022, gold is poised to suffer along the way. To explain, the various bars above track gold’s monthly returns when the real U.S. Federal Funds Rate (dark blue), the real U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (green), and the real U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (light blue) begin with positive/negative values and then increase/decrease. If you focus your attention on the bars furthest to the right, you can see that when the real U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield and the real U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield are negative and then rise, gold suffers its worst monthly performances. Moreover, with the current fundamental environment presenting us with precisely that, similar results will likely materialize over the medium term. The bottom line? While investors desperately bought the dip on Jan. 10, the more than 2% intraday swing in the NASDAQ Composite screamed of monetary policy anxiety. With another hot inflation print poised to hit the wire on Jan. 12, the reprieve will likely be short-lived. Furthermore, with the PMs suffering from a similar fundamental affliction – as both the PMs and technology stocks are extremely allergic to rising interest rates – volatility is likely here to stay. As a result, the Fed should continue to break investors’ hearts over the medium term. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Jan. 10, though their fundamental outlooks remain profoundly bearish. With interest rates poised to rise and the USD Index still undervalued, more headwinds should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. As a result, long-term buying opportunities are likely still a ways away. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GOLD might be boosted with some factors

GOLD might be boosted with some factors

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.01.2022 09:56
An active reassessment of the outlook for monetary policy continues in the financial markets, but these changes have so far not moved gold from its position near $1800. The latest gold performance shows that it remains a portfolio diversification instrument, with little correlation to stock indices. Gold has gained for the third consecutive day, almost hitting the $1810 level. Last week the price came under pressure along with stocks, as US government bond yields rose as investors preferred them over precious metals paying no dividends or coupons. Gold also decreased intraday on Monday on a sharp fall in equities. However, buying on declines towards $1785 is well notable in gold. This is another jump around sustained buying. Previously, the areas of notable buying were $1760 in November and December and $1720 in August and September. Even earlier, in March 2021, gold got strong demand on dips to $1680. It is important to note that the higher support levels in gold at the end of last year occurred at the same time as the bond yields were rising, so the correlation between these assets is not direct. Historically, gold is vulnerable to rising long-term government bond yields only in case of a massive risk-off in the markets, which we witnessed in the epicentre of the last two global crises in 2008 right after the Lehman bankruptcy and in 2020 in the first weeks of the official pandemic. If the Fed and other central bankers manage to rein in inflation without causing major market turbulence during the policy normalization period, it could be a good springboard for gold. We have seen a similar example in the last tightening cycle. The first rate hike at the end of 2015 ended a corrective pullback in gold, becoming the starting point for a new six-month-long growth wave. Now the approach of a rate hike could draw attention to gold as a hedge against declines in growth stocks, which have a high sensitivity to interest rate movements. On the technical analysis side, if a new upside momentum in gold forms, it will lead the path to the $2500-2600 area after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the August 2018 to August 2020 growth wave.
Ether (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market with some ups and downs. BTCUSD looks as if it follows Nasdaq (NDX)

Ether (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market with some ups and downs. BTCUSD looks as if it follows Nasdaq (NDX)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.01.2022 09:05
On Monday, we saw colourful confirmation of how much stock market dynamics are affecting Ether and Bitcoin. Following the intraday fall of more than 2% in the Nasdaq, the top two cryptocurrencies surrendered their psychologically important levels, retreating at $ 3K and $ 40K, respectively. However, in all cases, the fall was redeemed. The Nasdaq closed with a nominal decline, and Bitcoin very quickly returned to levels near $ 42K. Ether is currently trading at 3100, gaining over 1% since the start of the day. The broader technical picture has not changed, indicating locally oversold, which puts buyers on the run who have been waiting for a discount in recent days. The crypto market as a whole has been losing 0.6% over the past 24 hours, but since the beginning of the day, it has been adding 1.6% to $ 1.96 trillion against the dip to $ 1.86 trillion at the peak of the decline on Monday evening. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index lost 2 points in a day, dropping to 21. This is still in extreme fear, just like yesterday and a week ago. In our opinion, bitcoin and ether are bought locally by enthusiasts and a number of long-term strategic investors, while investment funds trade them based on bursts of demand or risk aversion. By and large, this puts cryptocurrencies on a par with growth stocks, sensitive to the dynamics of interest rates: the rise in profitability causes a sell-off of risks. At the same time, we must not forget that cryptocurrencies are more mobile, that is, they sometimes lose twice or three times more than Nasdaq. If so, then cryptocurrencies are far from the bottom, since the process of normalizing interest rates in financial markets is far from complete.
APPL holds on tight, even if the rest struggle to

APPL holds on tight, even if the rest struggle to

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.01.2022 15:59
Apple (AAPL) iPhone turned 15 yesterday, January 9. Apple (AAPL) shares so far have not been in a celebratory mood. Apple (AAPL) stock still languishing at around $170 as tech suffers. Apple shares closed out Monday just in the green, registering a modest gain of 0.1% to close at $172.17. While tech names have struggled so far in 2022 due to higher yields and an aggressive Fed, apple remains poised near all-time highs. Apple stock chart, 15 minute Apple (AAPL) stock news The iPhone splashed onto the global stage 15 years ago with a humourous launch by then CEO Steve Jobs. He has actually announced that Apple was launching three products. A widescreen iPod with touchscreen, a breakthrough interest browser, and a phone. Eventually, the audience saw the joke and that this was actually what the iPhone was, three products rolled into one. The modern iteration of the smartphone was born and the industry would never be the same again. Nor would many other industries who benefitted enormously from handheld internet access. Social media companies such as Twitter (TWTR) and others owe a lot to the smartphone as do many online retailers. While Apple (AAPL) is the biggest company in the world it has dragged many other tech titans along with it. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast Apple has now broken below the key short-term moving averages, the 9 and 21-day. We have also put in place a double top which is a bearish formation. The triger is breaking the valley support at $167.46 which gives a target of $15 lower at $152. Along the way there will be support at $157. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) are now in bearish territoy. The MACD crossed over and the RSI is below 50, with both trending lower. Apple should outperform other high growth tech names but it is not immune from contagion. Apple (AAPL) stock chart, daily
XRP went down a bit, but forecast is probably quite optimistic

XRP went down a bit, but forecast is probably quite optimistic

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.01.2022 15:59
XRP price has been massing losses since Christmas, already accounting for 33%. Price action sees a pick-up in buying volume as a floor is created around $0.31. As bulls start to reclimb from the lows, a squeeze looks to unfold with a possible break of the downturn in the coming days. Ripple (XRP) has been in a downtrend since Christmas and has investors worried at the beginning of 2022. The sell-off, sparked by worries about rising interest rates in the U.S., has formed a solid downtrend, highlighted by the red descending trend line, and supported by the cross of the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day (SMA).. Bulls could turn the tables in coming days, however, as they push higher (green trendline) and press up against the red ascending trend line. A change in market risk sentiment towards risk-on could then see a breakout and return towards $0.78. XRP will start recovery once market sentiments shift back to risk on XRP price has been hammered by a broad sell-off that has pushed the stars out of favor of any bullish reaction. The most significant weight comes from the downtrend since Christmas, marked by the red descending trend line. The crossing of the 55-day SMA below the 200-day SMA is called a death cross that will keep big investors out of the trade given how bearish it is.. A floor appears to be forming, however, as the lows slowly grind higher forming a floor from January 5 and brave bulls do have some incentives to now start entering at an extended position. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the oversold area but starting to flatline, which indicates bulls have a good window of opportunity to enter as more short-sellers will refrain from entering the market right now, as any possible profits will be expected to be minimal. Once global markets start to shake off their current turmoil, expect XRP to quickly see a bullish pick-up of buying volume that could help it break above the red ascending trend line, and move towards the first target at $0.78. XRP/USD daily chart XPR price is likely to further increase buying volume once it reaches $0.78 and push higher up to the monthly pivot at $0.84. A further continuation could be on the cards if markets rally and have a few consecutive days of gains. As all this depends on global market sentiment, expect a break of the green ascending trend line to push price further to the downside in search of any support, which could not be seen until $0.62 or even $0.58 with the green longer-term supporting level and the S1 monthly support level.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Under Pressure

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Under Pressure

John Benjamin John Benjamin 12.01.2022 09:05
GBPUSD rally gains tractionThe US dollar fell after the Fed Chair’s remark that no decision has been made on quantitative tightening. The pair showed some weakness near the daily resistance at 1.3600.The RSI’s double top in the overbought area led some buyers to take chips off the table. However, a follow-up close above the resistance indicates that the bulls are still in control of the direction.Sentiment remains upbeat and 1.3700 from the start of the November sell-off would be the next target. 1.3570 is a fresh support in case of a pullback.NZDUSD bounces off major supportThe New Zealand dollar recovers as risk appetite returns following Jerome Powell’s testimony.The previous rebound towards 0.6830 met strong selling pressure. Its failure to achieve a new high suggests that the bearish bias lingers. The drop below 0.6740 further weighs on the kiwi. A bounce could still be an opportunity to sell into strength.The bulls need to clear 0.6835 in order to turn the tide, and 0.6730 is a fresh support. A bearish breakout may test the base of December’s bounce at 0.6700.EURJPY maintains uptrendThe euro recoups losses as traders dump safe-haven currencies. The fall below 130.80 has shaken out some weak hands.Nonetheless, the upward bias remains intact after the single currency saw solid demand over the psychological level of 130.00. The RSI’s oversold situation compounded the attractiveness of the discount.A rise above 131.60 would bring in momentum traders and clear the path for an extended rally to 132.55 near last October’s peak. 129.10 is the second line of defence in case of a deeper retracement.
Gold Market in 2022: Fall and Revival?

Gold Market in 2022: Fall and Revival?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 07.01.2022 16:46
  2021 will be remembered as the year of inflation’s comeback and gold’s dissatisfying reaction to it. Will gold improve its behavior in 2022? You thought that 2020 was a terrible year, but we would be back to normal in 2021? Well, we haven’t quite returned to normal. After all, the epidemic is not over, as new strains of coronavirus emerged and spread last year. Actually, in some aspects, 2021 was even worse than 2020. Two years ago, the pandemic was wreaking havoc. Last year, both the pandemic and inflation were raging. To the great surprise of mainstream economists fixated on aggregate demand, 2021 would be recorded in chronicles as the year of the supply factors revenge and the great return of inflation. For years, the pundits have talked about the death of inflation and mocked anyone who pointed to its risk. Well, he who laughs last, laughs best. However, it’s laughter through inflationary tears. Given the highest inflation rate since the Great Stagflation, gold prices must have grown a lot, right? Well, not exactly. As the chart below shows, 2021 wasn’t the best year for the yellow metal. Gold lost almost 5% over the last twelve months. Although I correctly predicted that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”, I expected less bearish behavior. What exactly happened? From a macroeconomic perspective, the economy recovered last year. As vaccination progressed, sanitary restrictions were lifted, and risk appetite returned to the market, which hit safe-haven assets such as gold. What’s more, a rebound in economic activity and rising inflation prompted the Fed to taper its quantitative easing and introduce more hawkish rhetoric, which pushed gold prices down. As always, there were both ups and downs in the gold market last year. Gold started 2021 with a bang, but began plunging quickly amid Democrats’ success in elections, the Fed more optimistic about the economy, and rising interest rates. The slide lasted until late March, when gold found its bottom of $1,684. This is because inflation started to accelerate at that point, while the Fed was downplaying rising price pressures, gibbering about “transitory inflation”. The rising worries about high inflation and the perspective of the US central bank staying behind the curve helped gold reach $1,900 once again in early June. However, the hawkish FOMC meeting and dot-plot that came later that month created another powerful bearish wave in the gold market that lasted until the end of September. Renewed inflationary worries and rising inflation expectations pushed gold to $1,865 in mid-November. However, the Fed announced a tapering of its asset purchases, calming markets once again and regaining investors’ trust in its ability to control inflation. As consequence, gold declined below $1,800 once again and stayed there by the end of the year. What can we learn from gold’s performance in 2021? First of all, gold is not a perfect inflation hedge, as the chart below shows. I mean here that, yes, gold is sensitive to rising inflation, but a hawkish Fed beats inflation in the gold market. Thus, inflation is positive for gold only if the US central bank stays behind the curve. However, when investors believe that either inflation is temporary or that the Fed will turn more hawkish in response to upward price pressure, gold runs away into the corner. Royal metal, huh? Second, never underestimate the power of the dark… I mean, the hawkish side of the Fed – or simply, don’t fight the Fed. It turned out that the prospects of a very gradual asset tapering and tightening cycle were enough to intimidate gold. Third, real interest rates remain the key driver for gold prices. As one can see in the chart below, gold plunged each time bond yields rallied, in particular in February 2021, but also in June or November. Hence, gold positively reacts to inflation as long as inflation translates into lower real interest rates. However, if other factors – such as expectations of a more hawkish Fed – come into play and outweigh inflation, gold suffers. Great, we already know that 2021 sucked and why. However, will 2022 be better for the gold market? Although I have great sympathy for the gold bulls, I don’t have good news for them. It seems that gold’s struggle will continue this year, at least in the first months of 2022, as the Fed’s hiking cycle and rising bond yields would create downward pressure on gold. However, when the US central bank starts raising the federal funds rate, gold may find its bottom, as it did in December 2015, and begin to rally again. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

At the moment, contrary to ETHUSD and other altcoins, BTCUSD isn't increasing that much

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.01.2022 09:02
The crypto market has again surpassed $2 trillion, adding almost 2.7% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has not kept pace with the rise in altcoin prices: BTC strengthened by 1.45% against a 4% rise in ETH, while other leading coins added between 3% and 7%. The purchase of altcoins has intensified after the first cryptocurrency defended the $40K mark. This was like a sign of faith in the sector's short-term prospects, which again allowed enthusiasts to invest in potentially more undervalued coins and projects. The crypto Fear and Greed Index added 1 point to 22 overnight, but we can see that investors took the recent plunge as a buying opportunity. On the chart, bitcoin rebounded from a psychologically important support level for the second time since September. In addition, the RSI indicator on the daily charts came out of the oversold area, signalling a pause in the bearish momentum. However, it is too early to say that we are seeing the beginning of a new growth wave. There are several reasons for that. In this wave of decline, the RSI indicator reached lower lows than earlier in December and markedly lower levels in September and July, marking more persistent and prolonged selling than in previous episodes. Bitcoin's consolidation attempts this week is only a wobble near the bottom. A bullish reversal will be indicated by solid upward momentum in July or September. The mini rebound in December was quickly eaten away by the bears. BTCUSD is consolidating near the lower boundary of the descending channel. To say that we see more than just a bounce within this trend is only possible if it grew above 45k - where the previous local lows and the downside resistance line are concentrated. If bitcoin fails to develop an uptrend, it will seriously spoil sentiment for cryptocurrency traders, creating a toxic environment in the sector and putting selling back on the agenda, despite the prospects of individual projects.
Fed and OPEC possibly affects Oil - WTI and Brent. Holidays in 2022 in times of COVID-19

Fed and OPEC possibly affects Oil - WTI and Brent. Holidays in 2022 in times of COVID-19

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.01.2022 09:26
WTI crude oil surpassed the $80 mark in Tuesday's trading, near two-month highs and solidly above the 2018-2021 pivot levels near $75. Oil's fall in November-December by more than a quarter from a peak in late October probably served as a reset for oil. Interestingly, oil rose yesterday against plainly bearish news. The WHO warned of a sharp rise in omicron cases in coming weeks, and Oman's oil minister said OPEC+ did not want to see oil at $100 and overheat the market. However, traders were reading between the lines. The rapid spread of omicron is coming closer to the point of reaching collective immunity, raising the chances that summer travel and the holiday season will this time be much more pre-pandemic like. While initially causing some pressure on quotations, Oman's comments on oil did not present anything new in substance. As before, the cartel intends to stick to its plan to raise production by 400K per day every month. This is more than enough to shift the balance in the market towards surplus at the start of the year, but not enough to avoid causing excessive overheating of oil and provoking a new shale boom in the US and elsewhere. Producers in developed countries complain that banks are reluctant to finance new crude projects, requiring companies to become 'greener'. This raises the breakeven price of production projects, giving OPEC+ a head start. In addition, oil was probably positively impacted by Powell's confidence in the economic recovery, which is not threatened by either omicron or several rate hikes this year. Locally, investors interpreted this as confidence in a surge in oil demand in the coming months, which boosted the price. It will not be surprising if oil goes off to retest October highs near $85/bbl WTI and $87/bbl Brent in the next couple of weeks. If the demand for risky assets remains in place by then, we would expect a start of a rally towards $100 and an entrenchment in the $80-100 range through 2022. However, we cannot rule out that the speculative optimism in oil will fade as the Fed's tough stance on the economy is realised.
(WETH) Wrapped Ether Explained. What Is It?

Feyyaz Alingan talks NFT, Bitcoin (BTC), ETH, Tezos and Aave

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 12.01.2022 15:22
Every week Feyyaz Alingan looks at the most important cryptocurrencies and discusses the most important developments in the crypto space to share his thoughts in the Crypto Market Talk. Which coins could go to the moon and which could go bust? What is behind the hype of the different blockchain technologies and how can YOU participate? If you don’t want to miss the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies and want to stay up to date with Bitcoin and co. - Crypto Market Talk is the best place to stay subscribed! Feyyaz Alingan founded Blue Alpine Research and regularly publishes analysis & news on the topic of cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFTs on YouTube and via Podcast.
Real estate with a breath of fresh air

Real estate with a breath of fresh air

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 12.01.2022 14:30
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 11.01.2021 Commercial real estate market in Poland has come a long way since the spring of 2020. Never before have so many changes been made in such a short time. Adaptation to new conditions turned out to be the most difficult for hotels and retail. For the warehouse market, in turn, the reshuffling of sales and deliveries became a springboard for a series of records. The offices returned in a new form. Nowadays, the new trends that will shape the market in the upcoming years, lead the way for the real estate sector. Experts from Walter Herz consulting company comment on what is changing. Offices in demand - Despite the popularization of home office and the hybrid work system, we cannot speak of a revolution on the office market. The situation in the sector is quite stable. However, the way the space is used is changing. Tenants decide to extend contracts and change the arrangement of space, adapting it to the needs of employees in the new market environment. Some companies reduce space and maximize its use. Co-working is trending. Companies create more space for team work, integration and meetings - informs Mateusz Strzelecki, Partner / Head of Regional Markets at Walter Herz. Mateusz Strzelecki expects an explosion of relocation to flexible offices this year. - This tendency was already visible last year, but we expect an increase in the activity of companies this year. This is due to the fact that nowadays, tenants need more time to decide on the new office, even a year or a year and a half - admits Mateusz Strzelecki. Mateusz Strzelecki also points to a positive symptom visible on the market related to the return of foreign companies that have been actively looking for locations for their headquarters in our country since autumn last year. Strzelecki also speaks of the great boom seen on the flex space market segment. - Tenants now prefer shorter, flexible contracts with different options of space. Hence, the growing demand for instant offices and co-working spaces is growing. They offer a full range of services and short lease terms, which attracts tenants. They are most often complementary to traditional spaces. The resources of flexible space are growing rapidly and are already provided by the majority of the most modern facilities. In 2022, the potential of this segment will increase – predicts Mateusz Strzelecki. Frozen projects However, Mateusz Strzelecki no longer speaks of an increase in the resources of traditional office space on the market with such great optimism - The amount of space under construction, especially on the Warsaw market, is the lowest in a decade and there are no signs that this will change in the near future. The situation is better on the regional markets, while in Warsaw most of the large office investments have already been completed, and the remaining construction projects are nearly finished. Almost half of the space in the projects under construction already has tenants. Over time, the free space will shrink and the market offer will become smaller. There is a supply gap on the horizon in the next two years, as only a small number of projects is under implementation. Low supply with higher expected demand may translate into optimization of lease terms on the part of building owners, and even an increase in rental rates in the best buildings in central locations, which are currently the most popular. Increasingly higher utility prices will, in turn, affect the increase in service charges - notes Mateusz Strzelecki. - The growing construction costs related to high inflation and an increase in interest rates do not encourage investors to act. Prices for building materials, services, land and wages are rising. We can expect this trend to continue this year. Estimates show that the cost of delivering an office building to the market has increased by over 30 per cent, since the beginning of the pandemic. In addition, there are difficulties related to the timely delivery of materials - says Mateusz Strzelecki. Warehouse sector is hot BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO of Walter Herz, points out that thanks to the large-scale office buildings that have been commissioned last year and which constitute attractive assets, this year's value of transactions on the investment market may reach the level seen in Poland before the pandemic. - In 2021, the transaction volume will probably be similar to the one recorded last year. The warehouse and industrial sector will account for almost a half of the total value. The demand for logistics real estate is breaking records not only on our market. In Poland, convenience-type facilities, retail parks and local daily service centers providing access to everyday goods are also gaining importance. Investors also appreciate more and more projects offering flats for institutional rental, student dormitories, retirement homes and nursing homes, which guarantee lasting capital security and an attractive level of return - informs BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik. - The pandemic has significantly boosted the development of the warehouse real estate market. A record amount of space is under construction all over the country. The historically high new supply is followed by an equally high demand, which was a third higher in the first three quarters of 2021 than in the corresponding period a year earlier. This is a trend that will continue also this year due to the further development of e-commerce and nearshoring, locating production closer to the outlet zone and striving to shorten the supply chain – explains BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik. New concepts BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik points out that more and more warehouses built in the new standard will enter the market. They will reach the height of 12 m. - Developers are also noticing great interest in last mile logistics facilities, located close to large urban agglomerations, and will implement more such projects. These types of facilities are particularly popular among distributors and delivery companies, which are associated with the boom in the e-commerce sector. This year, the dark store concept, which debuted on our market in 2021, will also be popularized in Poland. Networks of distribution microcenters, resembling shops, but created exclusively to handle online orders with express delivery in several minutes, will be expanded, which are already operating in the seven largest cities in the country – informs BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik. Walter Herz specialists agree that commercial investments in Poland have chosen the multiple functionality course. Among the projects prepared for construction, mixed-use complexes implemented in several stages predominate. The purpose of designing part of the investment is also to supplement the development with additional functions, as is the case with the office building in SÅ‚użewiec in Warsaw. - We could observe the implementation of investments with residential, commercial, service, entertainment and hotel functions in major cities in the country even before the pandemic. Now, such facilities have dominated the sphere of new investments. Projects built in line with sustainable development meet not only the expectations of today's investors, but also the needs of office users who appreciate the advantages of the local area even more, but expect a comprehensive offer - says Piotr SzymoÅ„ski, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz. - In Warsaw, the implementation of new, large-scale mixed-use investments is scheduled, among others, in the districts of Bielany and Å»eraÅ„. Complexes of this type will also be built in Kabaty and OkÄ™cie – says Piotr SzymoÅ„ski. More and more green - When outlining outstanding trends, it is impossible not to mention the ESG (Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance) standards, which are becoming an increasingly important criterion in assessing the value of commercial real estate. The building's efficiency, emissivity and the comfort it provides to its users, confirmed by certificates, have become a key issue for investors. The environmental aspect related to projects in the face of climate change is already as important as the financial profit and, in the context of EU directives, to a large extent influences business decisions. Sustainable investments achieve higher market valuations and are better rated by financial institutions - says Piotr SzymoÅ„ski. Piotr SzymoÅ„ski expects further, more and more detailed regulations on ESG. - We are observing an increasing desire to reduce operating costs and minimize the impact on the planet through the use of energy-saving solutions. Facilities that take into account the convenience of users are also more popular among tenants. Companies pay attention to how the space in which they work affects the natural environment. Some organizations only work with entities that represent similar standards in this field. Therefore, it can be expected that year to year there will be more "green" buildings on the market. We can also expect an increase in market competitiveness in this respect – adds Piotr SzymoÅ„ski. Aboout Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
US Fed Playing With Fire - Bubbles May Burst While Bond Yields & Metals Rally

US Fed Playing With Fire - Bubbles May Burst While Bond Yields & Metals Rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 12.01.2022 16:59
The US Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy from a historically low-interest rate has slowed the US stock markets. As a result, traders quickly attempt to adjust their capital allocation levels as risk assets, technology, and US major indexes roll lower because of expected Fed Rate Hikes and other Hawkish activities.We will explore how the US Fed's comments and potential future actions may prompt significant market trends in 2022 and beyond. We'll also attempt to identify how and when the US Fed may disrupt the US markets. We know the actions of the US Fed will prompt some significant trends over the next 12 to 24 months. We know certain assets will likely rise in value as fear settles into the markets because of rising interest rates and deflating asset bubbles. It is just a matter of understanding how the speculative asset bubble of the past 8+ years and how the US Fed may move to pop these speculative bubbles soon.Asset Bubbles Everywhere, The Global Markets Continue To FrothAsset bubbles, such as those created in Cryptos, the US stock market, US Real Estate, and the art/collectible market over the past 5+ years, have visualized the US Fed's easy money results in terms of bubbles.Take a look at this chart showing the growth in certain asset classes since the start of 2019. It is incredible to think that these asset classes have rallied so far and so fast in just over 35 months: The Grayscale Bitcoin ETF rallied more than 1200%. The Technology sector rallied more than 200%. Real Estate rallied more than 85%. The S&P 500 rallied more than 94%. The US Federal Reserve's move to lower interest rates after the 2018 market collapse, which resulted in a December 24, 2018, Christmas Bottom, prompted an incredible rally phase where traders followed the US Fed in piling into assets. As long as the US Fed continued buying assets and kept interest rates near zero, global traders had no reason to fight the US Fed.(Source: StockCharts.com)Is The US Fed About To Pop The Bubble From The Stratosphere?Our research suggests the US Federal Reserve is changing its policy a little late into the game. However, it appears the US and global markets have already "rolled over" in terms of growth trends and expectations. This SPY to QQQ ratio chart highlights that the US markets entered a peaking phase in late July/August 2020 and reached an ultimate peak in February 2021.(Source: TradingView.com)S&P 500 PE Ratio Suggests Investors Are ALL-IN For The Next 90+ YearsIn other words, it appears traders have reached their ceiling in terms of what they believe the US Fed is capable of doing at this stage in the rally. For example, the PE Ratio of the US Stock market ending in 2021 ended just below 30, with a historical high for 2021 near 37. The historical mean is 15.96 – which is still relatively high for the US stock market.Remember, a PE level of 15.96 means any investor buying in at those levels would need a minimum of 15.96 years of a company handing over "every penny of revenue" to the investor (excluding all costs, payrolls, taxes, fees, and other operating expenses) to cover the PE multiple of the investment. So a PE level of 30, as we see at the end of 2021, suggests that stock price valuation levels are at least 60 to 90+ years ahead of real returns.The only thing that can change this historic level of speculation in the markets is a deleveraging/revaluation event.(Source: multpl.com)From the US Fed's Actions To How Traders Should Prepare For Shifting MarketsThis first part of our ongoing research into the US Fed's actions and where they are telegraphing their intents will continue. Part II of this article will investigate how traders should read into these shifting markets and where we're attempting to highlight what has taken place over the past 3 to 5+ years.We've managed to live through an incredible event in history. I can only think of one other time when a global superpower extended this type of credit and support for the worldwide economy. That was the Roman Empire many thousands of years ago.What we experience over the next 20 to 40+ years could be the biggest and most incredible opportunity of your lifetime. The process of deleveraging all this debt and working all this capital through the global markets over the next few decades may present one of the most incredible investment/trading opportunities anyone has ever seen in over 1500 years.Look for my Part II to this article, and we'll continue exploring the current shifts in the US and global stock and asset markets.Finding The Right Strategies That Will Help You Navigate Through Bulls & BearsIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio - Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
USDCHF a bit down, XAUUSD not changing much and we might say USOIL steadily goes up

USDCHF a bit down, XAUUSD not changing much and we might say USOIL steadily goes up

John Benjamin John Benjamin 13.01.2022 08:54
USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar plunged after December’s CPI slowed down to 0.5% from 0.8% in November. Despite a swift recovery from the daily support at 0.9100, price action came under pressure once again at December’s supply area (0.9280). The dive below 0.9180 then 0.9140 is a sign of liquidation as buyers rush to the exit. As the greenback revisits the critical support at 0.9100, an oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The former demand area around 0.9200 is now the first resistance level. XAUUSD looks to break out Gold edged higher as the US dollar softened across the board. The precious metal has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1830. This level used to be a support from last November’s sell-off. The recovery above the psychological level of 1800 shows the bulls’ commitment to keeping the price afloat. A break above the supply zone would force the sell-side to cover and trigger an extended rally towards the previous peak at 1870. On the downside, 1800 has turned into a fresh support. USOIL continues upward WTI crude climbed higher after a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. A close above the daily resistance at 79.00 was a strong bullish sign. Following a brief pause, the rally accelerated above 80.40. Sentiment remains upbeat and the bulls are keen to buy the dip during a pullback. A breach above 82.20 would clear the path to the peak at 85.00. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary retreat. In that case, trend-followers could be looking to jump in near the closest support at 81.20.
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Price and Forecast: Why do dead cats bounce?

Moderna (MRNA) Stock Price and Forecast: Why do dead cats bounce?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 12.01.2022 15:58
MRNA shares slump on Tuesday after a strong bounce on Monday. FXStreet had called the Monday bounce as likely to fail. Moderna needs to find a new revenue source as covid likely to fade. Moderna (MRNA) shares failed to rally on Tuesday despite Fed Chair Powell talking calmly to Capitol Hill and soothing most equities in the process. Risk was back on and rate hikes are also likely on, this time in March. Powell has carefully mapped out the strategy so as not to surprise markets, and despite yields rising slightly, tech continued to bounce on Tuesday. However, Moderna shares slumped. Moderna (MRNA) stock news Shares in Moderna closed over 5% lower at $221.39 on Tuesday. Many traders are asking why, when all major indices closed higher. Mainstream media have been trotting out the rotation line, which is a neat excuse for, "We don't really know why that happened, so let us just compare it to something else." The fact as always is to do with momentum and trends. Moderna has been falling, and this latest fall is symptomatic of waning investor interest as covid looks to fade. Moderna is hugely over-reliant on its covid vaccine for income. Yes, it has a decent pipeline, but nothing else can come close to matching the revenue generation of its covid vaccine. This is the big problem. Pfizer is much more diversified and a larger company with multiple revenue streams. Moderna (MRNA) is not in this league. It may get there one day, but in the meantime it will face revenue generation challenges. Take a look at the Moderna development pipeline here. It is impressive but nothing that looks either imminent or significant in terms of replacing covid vaccine revenue. Covid is/was a once-in-a-century event (fingers crossed). Moderna (MRNA) stock forecast There is nothing significant in Monday's move despite MRNA shares closing 9% higher. We outlined this in our article earlier in the week and remain bearish on Moderna. The trend is in place as Monday failed to break above $259, so we remain with lower lows and lower highs. $259 is the pivot for the short term. $188.41 is the first target with $200 a big psychological level along the way. There is a pattern here: declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), declining Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and declining stock price. We have a volume gap from $200 until $180. There is more downside in our view unless MRNA shares close above $259. Moderna (MRNA) chart, daily
All Eyes on Copper

All Eyes on Copper

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.01.2022 15:36
S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick. Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500. The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there! The red metal has defied base metals intraday consolidation yesterday, and that has consequences for inflation trades – silver is waiting in the wings. To give you an idea how mispriced the risk of persistently unpleasant inflation is, yesterday‘s CPI coming only in line with expectations, caused inflation expectations to decline… At least the dollar took a rightful breather – its prior sideways consolidation has been broken to the downside. Currencies are starting to figure out inflation, and just how far and inadequate Fed‘s promise to take on it, has been... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Daily consolidation of prior strong gains that‘s likely to go on today – stocks are making up their mind as to where next in the very short run now that the bears had been repelled. Credit Markets HYG is likewise looking to need some time to move higher next – volume is declining, and a brief sideways move is most likely now. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still sideways to up – not down. The pressure to go higher is building up, waiting for the Fed miscalculation, or perception of the consequencies of its upcoming action. The faith in the central bank isn‘t yet really shaken. Crude Oil Crude oil finds it easiest to keep rising – the technical and fundamental conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be the leading S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper is starting to play catch up to the other commodities finally – it‘ll be a rocky ride, but the red metal has waken up, and cast a clear verdict on inflation that has to seep into other markets next. Will take time, but we‘ll get there. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now. Summary S&P 500 turnaround is getting cemented, and worries about the hawkish Fed or inflation look to be momentarily receding. Not even the PPI is waking up the markets – the focus seems to be on measly 0.1% undershoot. Ironic, pathetic. While stocks keep on moving in a tight range, and still want to keep on appreciating modestly, the real action is happening in the commodities, to be followed by precious metals. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
We Will Probably Review All Of Inflation Indicators Around The World This Weekend

The USD Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 13.01.2022 15:22
  “It’s my party and I’ll fall if I want to”, sang gold and kept its word. Although the dollar weakened, gold seemed reluctant to take advantage of it. Now that was a big decline in the USD Index! What made gold yawn and why is it declining today? Because it doesn’t want to rally. I’ve been writing this over and over again, and yet I’ll write it once more. Markets don’t move in a straight line up or down, and periodic corrections are natural. However, the way markets interact during those corrections tells us a lot about what’s likely to take place next, at least in the case of some markets. The USD Index declined quite visibly yesterday and in today’s overnight trading. The key questions are: so what, and if that was completely unexpected. Starting with the latter, it wasn’t unexpected. It’s something in tune with gold’s long-term chart. When the weekly RSI (based on the weekly price changes) for the USD Index hit 70, I wrote the following: Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle, and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. Consequently, the current decline is not unexpected, it’s rather normal. I marked additional situations on the above chart with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. I marked those declines in the RSI with blue rectangles, and I did the same thing for the current decline. As you can see, the size of the move lower is currently analogous to previous short-term corrections that were then followed by higher prices. This means that it’s quite likely over or very close to being over, and the medium-term rally can return any day now. Moving back to USD’s short-term chart, we see that the USD Index just (in overnight trading, so the move is not even close to being confirmed) moved a little below USDX’s rising support line based on the previous June and October 2021 lows. At the same time, the USDX is slightly below its late-2020 top and slightly above its November 2021 top. In light of the situation on the long-term USDX chart (as discussed above), this combination of support levels is likely to trigger a rebound and the continuation of the medium-term rally. At the beginning of 2021, I wrote that the year was likely to be bullish for the USD Index, and my forecast for gold (and the rest of the precious metals sector) was bullish – against that of almost every one of my colleagues. The USD Index ended 2021 about 6% higher, gold was down about 3.5%, silver was down almost 12%, the GDX ETF was down by about 9.5%, and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks, my primary tool for shorting the precious metals sector in 2021 – I wasn’t shorting gold at any point in 2021) was down by about 21%. What about this year? It’s a tough call to say how the entire year will go, but it seems to me that the USD Index will move higher, and we’ll see both in the PMs: a massive decline, and then a huge rally. It’s very likely to be a year to remember for anyone interested in trading gold, silver, and/or mining stocks and/or investing in them. Let’s get back to the current situation. The USD Index declined to fresh 2022 lows – well below the previous January lows, and also below the December and late-November lows. How did gold respond? Gold rallied – but just by a mere $8.80. While gold got close to its early-January high, it didn’t manage to move above it. 2022 is still a down year for gold. Also, gold is clearly below its November 2021 highs, when it was trading close to $1,900. Is gold showing strength here? Absolutely not. Gold is showing the opposite of strength. It’s weak and unwilling to react to the USD’s weakness. That’s exactly what I want to see as a bearish indication if I plan on entering a short position in the precious metals sector or when I’m timing an exit of a long position, or as a confirmation of a bearish narrative in general. So, yes, of course I want to say that yesterday’s rally in gold was a bearish development. That’s the case, because gold should have rallied so much more, given what happened in the USD Index. Today’s overnight action makes the bearish case even clearer. The USDX is down a bit, but gold is down too, anyway. It simply doesn’t want to rally. Gold wants to decline instead. Mining stocks and silver behaved similarly to gold yesterday – they didn’t move to, let alone above, their previous 2022 highs. Consequently, they confirm the indications for the gold vs. USD dynamic – they don’t point to something else. Summing up, the outlook for silver, gold, and mining remains bearish for the medium term, and this week’s rally seems to be nothing more than a counter-trend breather. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dandelion's Journey Is Now Live In GWENT! Love Event Starting Soon!

GameStop Stock Price and Forecast: Is this game over for GME stock?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 13.01.2022 15:56
GameStop stock continues to edge lower with little momentum. GME shares slide to $128, nearly 2% lower on Wednesday. GME stock is down 30% over the last three months and 13% this year. GameStop (GME) is reaching a key juncture. Now that the Fed has seemingly performed its magic act of raising rates and keeping markets happy, it is time to see if meme stocks can benefit from a more risk-on tone in equities. Meme stocks are all about momentum, not valuation, and there have been worrying signs for the last quarter. Small lot trades have been decreasing, and these are often used as an indicator of retail activity. Call option volumes have also decreased, another meme stock feature used widely by retail traders. Finally, the economy is nearly fully open, and the Omicron variant is milder. Will meme stocks ever recapture their preeminence of this time last year when they ruled the airwaves? GameStop (GME) was the number one topic on CNBC, and every other major financial news outlet. This year, so far, it barely warrants a mention. Momentum is worrying, and that is all meme stocks have to support them. GameStop (GME) stock news Today, January 13, marks the exact one-year anniversary of the first huge pop in the GME stock price. On January 13, 2021, GME stock spiked 57%, having been near 100% intraday, and set in motion the saga as we know it. That took GME shares from $20 to nearly $40 before closing back at $31.40. Many of us, myself included, thought this was madness when we took a close look at the company. Now if you got the chance to buy stock in GME at $40, you would jump at it. This is an example of how price alters the perception of value and why retailers have constant sales. Technically, the double top has been the problem here. GME put in a double top on November and December last year that has played out perfectly. The slide though has continued past the target. $118 is now key, and breaking below sees volume dry up and a likely move to $70. Breaking $160 to $167 is needed to change the view to a more bullish stance in our opinion. GameStop (GME) chart, daily
Dogecoin (DOGE) allowed by Tesla (TSLA) in some way. BTC and ETH with decreases

Dogecoin (DOGE) allowed by Tesla (TSLA) in some way. BTC and ETH with decreases

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.01.2022 10:05
Pressure on US tech stocks was a significant theme in US trading yesterday, dragging cryptocurrencies down. The Crypto market capitalisation adjusted 1.1% overnight to $2.05 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 2% overnight, down to $42.8K, and ether is losing about 1.5% to $3.3K. Other top coins are declining with much less amplitude, as investment fund darlings rather than crypto enthusiasts have been hit the hardest. The Doge, which has become accepted as a means of payment for some (inexpensive) Tesla goods, deserves a separate story. Some have noted that goods for Doge are selling out even faster than for dollars. On this news, the coin is adding 18% today at $0.20, near the highs for the month. This news is a good illustration of crypto's continued penetration of corporate culture. On the other hand, Tesla won't necessarily hold these coins forever. People will be more active in spending their investments in DOGE. The technical view of the ETHUSD is disappointing because the selling intensified earlier in the week while it tried to break the 200 SMA again. The dip and consolidation below suggest a break of the bullish trend formed in May 2020, when the pair consolidated above this line. In a worst-case scenario, it could be a road to $1300-1700, about half of the current levels. It is doubtful that in this bear market cycle, the price of ether will lose 95% of its peak, as it did in 2018, which could completely nullify the rise from 2020. Bitcoin's disposition is no less worrisome. A death cross forms in it as the 50-day dips below the 200-day. At the same time, the price is below these averages, which reinforces the bearish signal. Attempts earlier in the week to form a rebound are encountering more substantial selling, further indicating seller pressure. The bearish picture in Ether and Bitcoin makes the entire cryptocurrency sector appear cautious in the near term. Individual growth stories, like DOGE, run the risk of quickly losing strength today when the overall backdrop turns negative.
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

US 100 doesn't go really high, XAGUSD seems to feel quite good

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.01.2022 08:38
US 100 revisits major support The Nasdaq 100 faltered after an unexpected rise in US initial jobless claims. The tech index bounced off the demand zone around 15200 which used to be a resistance on the daily chart. A bullish divergence revealed a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. The latest break above 15820 prompted some sellers to cover but came under pressure at 15980. After intraday traders took profit, 15200 is a critical support to keep the rebound relevant. A deeper correction would send the price to 14900. EURGBP stuck in bearish trend The euro rose after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the inflation spike may last longer than projected. Nonetheless, the bearish sentiment still prevails after the pair failed to hold on to 0.8370. The former support has now turned into a resistance. The current consolidation could be a distribution phase and a drop below 0.8325 could send the price to February 2020’s lows near 0.8290. On the upside, the bulls have the challenging task of lifting offers around 0.8370 and then 0.8415 before they could attract more followers. XAGUSD tests major resistance Silver extends its recovery on the back of a weak US dollar. The metal saw support at the psychological level of 22.00. A break above the resistance at 22.80 and then an acceleration to the upside indicates strong buying interest. An overbought RSI has temporarily held the rally back. The bulls are testing the daily resistance at 23.40. A breakout could shake sellers out and trigger a reversal above 24.00. On the downside, buyers could be lurking around 22.60 in case of a pullback.
US Federal Reserve - Playing With Fire Part II

US Federal Reserve - Playing With Fire Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.01.2022 22:49
The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big downside price moves in the US major indexes. As a result, the US markets' volatility levels (VIX) have moved to a recent average between 17~21 – nearly 3x historical normal levels.US Fed Likely To Move Very Slowly On RatesOne thing that I believe has become evident to many people is that we have moved past the COVID stimulus conversations of the past 24+ months. Inflation, rising prices, constricted supply-chains, and an excess of capital throughout many global markets appear to have shifted how the US Fed interprets future risks. The Fed is telegraphing these concerns to investors very clearly right now, which means traders/investors are shifting their focus away from high-flying Growth stocks.Even though traders are attempting to shift capital away from certain risky sectors in the US and global markets, I still believe we have about 60 to 120+ days before the bigger market shift takes place.The US Federal Reserve will likely start addressing inflationary concerns by reducing their balance sheet assets – not by aggressively raising interest rates. I feel the US Fed will navigate Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 by reducing balance sheet assets while allowing the global supply-chain issues to attempt to resolve themselves. By June/July 2022, or later, I believe the Fed may start to consider rate increases as a means to slow inflation.Fed Comments Shift Investor Sentiment – Metals In Focus For Later 2022This move away from Dovish/easy-money policies will push traders to consider more traditional hedge investments – like Gold and Silver. I'm sure you've read some comments over the past 24+ months about Gold being an extremely undervalued asset as the US Fed poured trillions of stimulus dollars into the economy? These comments were made concerning the fact that Gold rallied from $1450 in 2019 to almost $2100 in 2020 – over 12 months (over +43%). Could a big move in Gold/Silver happen again in 2022 or 2023?My research suggests a Double Pennant/Flag formation in Gold suggests the $1675 support level becomes critical soon. It also indicates a Breakout/Breakdown move may start to happen before March or April 2022 – near the APEX of the current Pennant/Flag formation.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The key APEX range is currently between $1785 and $1830. This represents a very tight price range where Gold may attempt to consolidate as we move towards the March/April Apex. My research suggests a move to levels near $1740 to $1750 may happen just before the Apex Breakout/Breakdown initiates. So, watch for a bit of downside price volatility in Gold before the end of February 2022.Junior Gold Miners May Rally +45%, Or More, On A Gold Price RallyThe Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Weekly Chart shows a firm support level near $37.35 that should act as a floor for price. My research suggests the next 45+ days will see GDXJ prices stay below $44 to $45 – trading in a reasonably tight range before starting to rally higher near the end of February 2022.I believe Metals and Miners are aligning for a late February 2022 or Q2:2022 rally. The reason is that I believe the positioning by the US Fed, and expectations related to later 2022 (a mid-term election year), may prompt quite a bit of concern for the US and global equities. This will likely push investors and traders into “old-school” hedge instruments – like Gold and Silver.That means Junior Gold and Silver Miners maybe about 55+ days away from an explosive upside price trend.SILJ May Rally +70% to +100%, Or More, On Fed ActionsNear the end of 2022, I published a research article highlighting the incredible opportunity in Silver – focusing on how the Gold/Silver ratio had recently reached another peak level and had started to decline: Fear May Drive Silver More Than 60% Higher In 2022. This move suggests the disparity between the price of Gold to the price of Silver shows Gold is appreciated (and holding greater value) than Silver over the past few years.The COVID virus event, and the subsequent Fed/Government stimulus, shifted investors/traders focus away from precious metals and into the equities market speculative rally. Now that the US Fed is starting to warn of more aggressive rate increases and other actions, precious metals are suddenly much more important as a hedge against future risks.This SILJ Weekly Chart highlights the incredible base level, near $12, that continues to offer traders a fantastic hedge against a sudden Fed move. Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see a $20 target level (+61%) and a $25.64 target level (100%). If the $12 level holds as a base/support, SILJ may be one of the easiest and best hedges against a sudden Fed move right now.The US Federal Reserve is, in my opinion, playing with fireThe COVID Virus Event pushed global debt levels higher by more than $19.5 Trillion Dollars (Source: Bloomberg ). The rush to attempt to save the global economy has created a massive surge in global debt levels – pushing the global debt to GDP level to well above 356% (Source: Axios).Why is this so important right now? Because the US Federal Reserve is talking about an attempt to move interest rates and Fed decision-making back to near-normal levels. In my opinion, this was the one fault of Alan Greenspan in 2006-07. The thought that we can raise rates to “near normal level” at any time when we have grown debt levels excessively throughout the world is failed thinking and ignorant, in my opinion.The US Federal Reserve is trapped and almost backed into a corner. I believe the US Fed will find any rate increases above 1.00 before the end of 2023 will significantly disrupt the global speculative bubble. Any attempt to move rates to levels near or above 2.00 would represent a nearly +2000% rate increase in less than 12 to 24 months. If you want to see a shock to the global markets where global debt to GDP is closing in on 400%, try raising the FFR by more than 2000% over a short period of time. That is what I call “playing with FIRE.”.(Source: Axios)2022 and 2023 will be filled with significant market trends and increased volatility. Right now, traders and investors need to understand the global markets are attempting to quickly transition away from a speculative/growth phase as the US Federal Reserve attempts to telegraph future rate increases. So it's time to start thinking about how to prepare for unknowns and how to protect your capital more efficiently.Growth sectors and US major indexes may continue to move higher for the next 30 to 60+ days, but my research suggests Q2:2022 may represent a "change in thinking" related to a late-2022 Fed shift. We are starting to see the markets move away from the speculative bubble-type trending we saw in 2020 and early 2021. Keep your eyes open and learn how to prepare for the big trends over the next 3+ years. The Fed is playing with fire right now. One wrong move and the markets could start a drastic price correction/reversion.Finding The Right Trading StrategiesIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio – Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Gold Wars: Revenge of Supply and Inflation

Gold Wars: Revenge of Supply and Inflation

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 14.01.2022 16:53
  Inflation! The Republic is crumbling under attacks by the ruthless Supply Lord, Count Shortage. Dearness is everywhere. Will gold save the galaxy? If George Lucas were to make a movie about 2021 instead of Jedi knights, he would probably call it Revenge of the Supply. After all, last year will be remembered as the period of semiconductor shortages, production bottlenecks, disrupted value chains, delayed deliveries, surging job vacancies, rising inflation, and skyrocketing energy prices. It could be a shocking discovery for Keynesian economists, who focus on aggregate demand and believe that there is always slack in the economy, but it turned out that supply matters too! As a reminder, state governments couldn’t deal with the pandemic more smartly and introduced lockdowns. Then, it turned out – what a surprise! – that the shutdown of the economy, well, shut down the economy, so the Fed and the banking system boosted the money supply, while Congress passed a mammoth fiscal stimulus, including sending checks to just about every American. In other words, 2021 showed us that one cannot close and reopen the economy without any negative consequences, as the economy doesn’t simply return to the status quo. After the reopening of the economy, people started to spend all the money that was “printed” and given to them. Hence, demand increased sharply, and supply couldn’t keep up with the boosted spending. It turned out that economic problems are not always related to the demand side that has to be “stimulated”. We’ve also learned that there are supply constraints and that production and delivery don’t always go smoothly. The contemporary economy is truly global, complex, and interconnected – and the proper working of this mechanism depends on the adequate functioning of its zillion elements. Thus, shit happens from time to time. This is why it’s smart to have some gold as a portfolio insurance against tail risks. Evergiven, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal, disrupting international trade, was the perfect illustration. However, the importance of supply factors goes beyond logistics and is related to regulations, taxes, incentives, etc. Instead of calls for injecting liquidity during each crisis, efficiency, reducing the disincentives to work and invest, and unlocking the supply shackles imposed by the government should become the top economic priority. Another negative surprise for mainstream economists in 2021 was the revenge of inflation. For years, central bankers and analysts have dismissed the threat of inflation, considering it a phenomenon of the past. In the 1970s, the Fed was still learning how to conduct monetary policy. It made a few mistakes, but is much smarter today, so stagflation won’t repeat. Additionally, we live in a globalized economy with strong product competition and weak labor unions, so inflation won’t get out of control. Indeed, inflation was stubbornly low for years, despite all the easy monetary policy, and didn’t want to reach the Fed’s target of 2%, so the US central bank changed its regime to be more flexible and tolerant of inflation. It was in 2020, just one year before the outbreak of inflation. The Fed completely didn’t expect that – which shows the intellectual poverty of this institution – and called it “transitory”. Initially, inflation was supposed to be short-lived because of the “base effects”, then because of the “supply bottlenecks”. Only in November, the Fed admitted that inflation was more broad-based and would be more persistent than it previously thought. Well, better late than never! What does the revenge of supply and inflation imply for the gold market? One could expect that gold would perform better last year amid all the supply problems and a surge in inflation. We’ve learned that gold doesn’t always shine during inflationary times. The reason was that supply shortages didn’t translate into a full-blown economic crisis. On the contrary, they were caused by a strong rebound in demand; and they contributed mainly to higher inflation, which strengthened the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and expectations of higher interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, we could say as well that gold prices were supported by elevated inflation and didn’t drop more thanks to all the supply disruptions and inflationary threats. After all, during the economic expansion of 2011-2015 that followed the Great Recession, gold plunged about 45%, while between the 2020 peak and the end of 2021, the yellow metal lost only about 13%, as the chart below shows. Hence, the worst might be yet to come. I don’t expect a similarly deep decline as in the past, especially given that the Fed’s tightening cycle seems to be mostly priced in, but the real interest rates could normalize somewhat. Thus, I have bad news for the gold bulls. The supply crunch is expected to moderate in the second half of 2022, which would also ease inflationary pressure. To be clear, inflation won’t disappear, but it may reach a peak this year. The combination of improvement on the supply side of the economy, with inflation reaching its peak, and with a more hawkish Fed doesn’t bode well for gold. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Powell Sends a Smile to Gold

Powell Sends a Smile to Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 14.01.2022 16:27
  Powell testified before the Senate. He didn’t say anything new, but gold rallied a bit. “We have totally screwed up inflation and now we are in deep trouble,” admitted Jerome Powell during his appearance before the Senate. OK, he didn’t formulate it exactly that way, but it was the message of his testimony. Powell admitted that the Fed wrongly expected a faster easing of supply disruptions and thought that price pressures would be much lower by now. As a consequence, inflation was believed to be only ‘transitory’. Unfortunately, that’s not what happened. “The supply-side constraints have been very durable. We are not seeing the kind of progress that all forecasters thought we’d be seeing by now. We did foresee a strong spike in demand. We didn’t know it would be so focused on goods,” saidPowell. As a result of the Fed’s inaction, inflation has risen 7% in 2021, the fastest pace since February 1982, as the chart below shows. After conducting very complicated calculations, Powell admitted that “inflation is running very far above target.” Bold deduction, Sherlock! Such high inflation is indeed a troublesome and even central bankers realize that. This is why Powell stated that “the economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place,” and that “we will use our tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.” However, there is a problem here. The main tool the Fed has to fight inflation is raising the federal funds rate, but hiking interest rates may hamper economic expansion and even trigger the next financial crisis. As Powell admitted, “if inflation does become too persistent, that will lead to much tighter monetary policy and that could lead to a recession.” Thus, the central bank is between a rock and a hard place, between high inflation and the risk of slowing economic expansion or even of an economic crisis.   Implications for Gold What does Powell’s testimony imply for the gold market? Well, theoretically not much, as it didn’t include any major surprises. However, Powell sounded quite hawkish. For example, he downplayed the economic consequences of the current surge in coronavirus cases, and said that it’s likely not changing the Fed’s plans to tighten its monetary policy this year. These plans are relatively bold for this year: “We are going to end asset purchases in March. We will raise rates. And at some point this year will let the balance sheet runoff,” Powell said. However, it seems that Powell sounded less hawkish than investors were afraid of. Given such worries, the lack of any surprises could be dovish. This is at least what gold’s performance suggests. As the chart below shows, Powell’s testimony triggered a small rally and revived optimism in the gold market. That’s for sure encouraging. After all, gold jumped above a key level of $1,800, catching some breath, but it’s too early to call a major reversal in the gold market. The yellow metal would have to sustain itself above $1,820 and then surpass $1,850, or even higher levels, to trumpet a bullish breakout. There are still several headwinds for gold. First of all, the monetary hawks haven’t struck yet. They are growing in strength, as several regional bank presidents have recently called for a rate hike as soon as in March. Such calls may strengthen the expectations of rate increases, boosting bond yields, and creating downward pressure for gold prices. We’ll find out soon whether it will happen or not, as the January FOMC meeting is in two weeks, and it could be a groundbreaking event in the gold market. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
New Profitable Call on Natural Gas: The Yoyo-Trade Is Back! - 14.01.2022

New Profitable Call on Natural Gas: The Yoyo-Trade Is Back! - 14.01.2022

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 14.01.2022 16:22
  Gas prices surged in stride and then the market plunged back down like a yoyo thrown from a balcony. What caused such a reaction? At the beginning of the week, Henry Hub natural gas futures closed above the $4 psychological mark on the NYMEX for the first time this new year as a result of robust US LNG exports and weather-driven demand. Overall, the prices on the February contract were still trading on a longer-term downtrend, which is why I was especially looking for the best spot to initiate a short-selling trade rather than jumping on a galloping horse. Meanwhile, some of our subscribers – always free to scalp the market (or to take more aggressive counter-trend trades towards our suggested entries) – were just getting ready to go short around the $4.876.5.079 resistance zone (highlighted by a yellow band), with a stop placed just above the higher $5.400 level (represented by a red dotted line) and targets at $4.568 and $4.213 (also marked by two green dotted lines), according to my last projections. As a result, gas prices indeed surged in stride (performing a high-speed rally up to the 4.879 that got almost immediately stopped by the yellow band – thus triggering our entry). It was just before the market plunged back down like a yoyo thrown from the third floor and wheeling on the first-floor balcony, considering our targets to be located on both the second and first floors. This sudden reversal move was certainly triggered on the one hand, technically by aggressive traders taking profits, but also , more fundamentally, by a slowdown in gas demand as the purchases for colder weeks were already anticipated by the commercials (large MNCs hedging their risk, oil and gas majors, utility companies, etc.); the latter having undoubtedly more impact and weight than we, or larger speculators, on those markets. Thus, I would say the key is trying to think like them to get some understanding of trading energies. Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some short trades around potential key resistances since this sudden surge in natural gas offered a great opportunity for the bears to enter short whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. Some of you – more aggressive traders – may also enjoy jumping on galloping horses. However, for such trades, the timeframe would be much shorter and difficult to make everyone take advantage of them, due to the volatility in the markets and the fact that I always try to provide trades with optimal entry levels meeting a profitable risk-to-reward ratio. You are always free – at your own risk and time schedule – to scalp the markets in a more aggressive way (counter-trend trading) towards a projected entry area if you feel comfortable doing so. However, sometimes, the “FOMO” (Fear-Of-Missing-Out) voices might tell you to trade when you shouldn’t, so just be aware that over-trading could also lead you to take more risky positions – refraining from trading all the time is also part of trading – a mind game that you will have to rapidly master! If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium section. Stay tuned – have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
BTCUSD Moving Down In General, ETHUSD Not So Far From November Tops

BTCUSD Moving Down In General, ETHUSD Not So Far From November Tops

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.01.2022 08:33
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has been cruising between 21-23 for the past seven days - in the extreme fear territory, finding itself in the middle of that range on Monday. Meanwhile, the value of all coins tracked by CoinMarketCap fell 0.5% in the last 24 hours to $2.05 trillion. By and large, a sideways range, $2.0-$2.1 trillion, has also been prevalent here for the past seven days, marking a lull in bull and bear fighting. It remains to be seen whether this signifies fatigue from the past months' turbulent moves or preparations for a new strong momentum. The local victory is on the bears' side, dominating the top coins now, where losses range from -0.8% for Bitcoin to -5.7% for Polkadot over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin failed to build on last week's upside momentum and is back in the $41-42K consolidation area, approaching it from above. A decline from these levels in the coming days will be a development of the downtrend since November, reversing the BTCUSD from the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. A bearish scenario suggests a dip towards $31K by the end of this week to close the July gap. But the door for such a decline will only open after the bulls surrender the $40K level they managed to hold in September and earlier in January. Ether has also encountered a sell-off in its attempts to rise above $3.3K. The 200-day moving average level is now acting as significant resistance. Bitcoin and Ether, which have a combined capitalisation of almost 60% of all cryptocurrencies, show worryingly negative dynamics. At the same time, their share has been declining since late last year. We are seeing either a shift in investor attitudes towards the sector leaders or certain inertia of altcoins compared to the flagships. Right now, it seems that crypto enthusiasts are not at all opposed to the changing landscape. However, as is often the case in nature, such changes rarely go smoothly.      
SAND not sure where to go?

SAND not sure where to go?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.01.2022 15:58
Sandbox investors are not returning to the scene as bulls refrain from erasing Thursday’s fade SAND price action enters a squeeze with bulls being pushed against the $4.72 level and stopped out on a break below. Expect a possible dip further to the downside if no help comes from global markets. The Sandbox (SAND) looked to be starting an uptrend after the perfect technical bounce off the monthly S1 support level at $4.19. Instead, the rally was short-lived and underwent a fade yesterday with investors reluctant to pick price up off the floor of the $4.72 historical level. If global markets don’t rally today, expect a dip to the downside with bulls getting stopped out and a nosedive back towards $4.19. Pressure is mounting with bulls cut short and pushed back at the entry This week, the Sandbox was on the same page as most other cryptocurrencies, having found support and delivered promising signs of a new rally that could set the tone for 2022. But instead, markets and participants are having issues reading between the lines on central bank tightening from the FED – and what that means for equity investments and portfolio rebalancing. With that, cryptocurrencies took a step back yesterday, and SAND failed to pare back yesterday’s incurred losses. SAND bulls look to have fled the scene as bears push price-action back down against the $4.72 level that holds some historical importance in SAND’s brief existence. A break below would trigger another sharp sell-off as stops run, and sell volume gets enlarged. A test or break below the monthly S1 at $4.19 could then follow.. SAND/USD daily chart Although European equities are red, US futures are mildly green, so sentiment could quickly shift once the US cash trading session starts. This will see a bounce off the historical level and a swing to the upside, touching the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $5.60 or the monthly pivot just above. That would preposition SAND bulls for an attack on the red descending trend line in the week to come.
S&P 500 (SPX) Chart Looks Like An Interesting Mountain Trip. Oil keeps moving up

S&P 500 (SPX) Chart Looks Like An Interesting Mountain Trip. Oil keeps moving up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.01.2022 15:18
S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels. That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening. Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year. Both yellow and black gold would rise in tandem, and the rising open crude oil profits (heavy long positions opened at $78) are part of the reason behind permanently elevated inflation ahead. The commodities upswing is also no longer tempered by the rising dollar. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The tech reversal could carry the daily weight of S&P 500 upswing – the daily weight only. I‘m not looking for this modest show of strength to hold. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t close strongly either – rising yields are taking their toll, and will continue doing so. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver downswing needn‘t be feared – while the metals are still sideways, the pressure to go up is building, and the dollar woes would be but the first catalyst (challenged faith in the Fed taming inflation would be next). Crude Oil Crude oil still finds it easiest to keep rising, and black gold could pause a little on the approach to $90 – the technical and fundamental upswing conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be among the best S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper catch up was postponed a little – that‘s all. The decline wasn‘t a true reversal, and the red metal would take on $4.60 before too long again. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum still can‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now – today‘s session definitely confirms that. Summary S&P 500 upswing isn‘t to be trusted, and its defensive nature out of tune with bonds, is part of the reason why. The stock market correction has further to go, and while tech overall would do well in 2022, it has to decline first – that would set the stage for a good 2H advance. The early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
(TSLA) Tesla Stock with +1.75% There are many factors which can influence its price.

(TSLA) Tesla Stock with +1.75% There are many factors which can influence its price.

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.01.2022 15:56
Tesla gains on Friday as Nasdaq finished in the green. TSLA stock closes at $1049.61 for a gain of 1.75%. Tesla shares are still in a downtrend but holding above the key pivot. Tesla (TSLA) returned to the green on Friday as the NASDAQ took the crown for best performing index, while the Dow suffered a bank burnout. Bank stocks reported on Friday in the form of Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and the results were decidedly mixed. Citigroup and JPMorgan fell heavily and dragged the Dow down with them. Yields though remained under control, allowing the Nasdaq to breathe lighter and make some headway after recent losses. This helped Tesla back into the green, but the stock remains choppy and sideways in motion. Tesla Stock News The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP, an international law firm, to fire one of its lawyers who had previously worked at the US SEC. The lawyer in question had supposedly interviewed Elon Musk in the SEC investigation in 2018 into Musk after he claimed on Twitter that he had gotten funding in place to take Tesla private. The SEC investigation led to Elon Musk and Tesla each paying $20 million fines. According to the WSJ article, a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP to fire the attorney late last year, but Cooley did not follow through on the request. Tesla has used alternative law firms on several cases since December. Tesla and Cooley LLP have not yet responded to CNBC requests for comment. This may add to pressure on the stock despite Friday's rebound. Earlier in the week, investors and Cybertruck fans were left disappointed with a further delay to the truck's production timeline release, which has now been pushed to 2023. Tesla Stock Forecast Irrespective of the news, we have an indecisive chart here. TSLA stock's most recent high was a lower one than the previous and has put in a series of lower lows. This means it is currently in a short-term downtrend. $980 is the key pivot that will signify more losses. Breaking $980 makes the target $886. Holding above $980, and the target is $1,200. However, we have a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The MACD has also crossed into negative territory. Tesla chart, daily
(BTC) Bitcoin with a rise, (ETH) Ether gains as well, (XRP) Ripple probably doesn't feel that well today

(BTC) Bitcoin with a rise, (ETH) Ether gains as well, (XRP) Ripple probably doesn't feel that well today

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.01.2022 15:56
Bitcoin price rejuvenates its uptrend as it bounces off a 4-hour demand zone, extending from $41,843 to $42,707. Ethereum price produces a higher high, signaling a continuation of its uptrend. Ripple price revisits the demand zone, ranging from $0.694 to $0.753, as bulls fail to kick-start a rally. Bitcoin price reveals a bullish outlook albeit a slow one, providing altcoins with an opportunity to run free. The past week is a testament to the recent gains witnessed among many altcoins. While Ethereum continues to remain bullish, Ripple struggles to hold on. Bitcoin price pushes forward Bitcoin price produced a lower low after the January 13 swing high at $44,439 but managed to set a higher low, keeping the uptrend somewhat intact. As BTC bounces off a 4-hour demand zone, extending from $41,843 to $42,707, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to make a run for the previous week’s high at $47,609. This hurdle is present below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) At $48,590. BTC’s upside potential, though, at least in the short-term, seems to be capped at the aforementioned level. BTC/USD 4-hour chart If Bitcoin price fails to see a bullish reaction off of the $41,843 to $42,707 demand zone, it will indicate weakness among buyers. This lack of interest could allow bears to take control and push BTC down to $41,762 – a four-hour candlestick close below there will then invalidate the bullish thesis. This development could lead Bitcoin price lower, to retest the $39,87 support level. Ethereum price shows strength Ethereum price is in a similar situation to Bitcoin as it produced a higher low but failed to set up a higher high. As long as BTC remains bullish, ETH will follow suit. Market participants can, therefore, expect the smart contract token to make a run for the 200-day SMA at $3,475. Clearing this hurdle will open the path for Ethereum price to revisit the daily supply zone, extending from $3,675 to $3,846. The upper limit of this hurdle coincides with the 50-day SMA, indicating that a further uptrend is unlikely. ETH/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the optimistic scenario, Ethereum price needs to hold above the weekly support level at $3,061 to see a meaningful uptrend. A breakdown of this foothold will remove confidence and instill doubt among buyers. A four-hour candlestick close below the demand zone’s lower limit at $2,927, however, will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. Ethereum price finds stable support as ETH targets $4,000 Ripple price lacks motivation Ripple price has been teetering on a daily demand zone, stretching from $0.693 to $0.753 since the December 4, 2021 crash. One can assume that this barrier has been weakening. Due to its correlation with BTC, however, XRP price is likely to rally 12% to retest the 50-day SMA at $0.844. The weakened demand zone could face destruction by a short-term bearish momentum, however, so investors should exercise caution with the remittance token. In some cases, Ripple price could overcome the immediate hurdle and make a run for the 200-day SMA at $0.954. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ripple price produces a daily candlestick close below $0.693, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. This development could trigger a crash, where XRP price could revisit the $0.604 support level. XRP price looks bullish, targets $1
Holiday Jubilations Take Over GWENT!

Holiday Jubilations Take Over GWENT!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.12.2021 12:28
CD PROJEKT RED announces that the annual Winter Event has started in GWENT: The Witcher Card Game, with festive rewards and offers up for grabs for all players. GWENT's Winter Event is live right now and will end on January 11th at noon, CET. During this time players will be earning a special in-game resource called Pine Cones, acquired for logging in every day, completing daily quests, as well as winning matches in Standard, Seasonal, and Draft game modes. Once obtained, Pine Cones can then be exchanged for a swathe of themed vanities, including cardbacks, avatars and borders, titles — as well as both a leader and a coin skin! — via a dedicated page in the in-game Reward Book. Watch the Winter Event Trailer Additionally, owners of the Geralt leader skin will be able to take on two special contracts during the event, awarding those who complete them with the equippable Red Hat and Candy Sword trinkets for Geralt. Furthermore, for a limited time players can claim a Geralt-leader-skin-exclusive sword inspired by Netflix's The Witcher series — available for free to all until January 13th, in celebration of the second season's release.The holiday spirit has also spilled into the in-game store, where Shupe the Troll is currently hosting a special sale featuring the Midwinter Bundle and Frozen Bundle, both filled with merry items, as well as the Yule Board. Those who would also like to deck out Geralt with the Winter-Event-only trinkets, but don't yet have him in their collection, can purchase the witcher's legendary neutral leader skin, as it is up for grabs right now in the shop, too. Learn more about the Winter Event GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com. Source: CD Projekt
A New Journey and Saovine Event Kicks Off in GWENT! - 03.11.2021

A New Journey and Saovine Event Kicks Off in GWENT! - 03.11.2021

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.11.2021 15:59
CD PROJEKT RED today announced that the 7th season of Journey and the Saovine live event are available in GWENT: The Witcher Card Game right now. This newest installment of Journey brings over 80 rewards across more than 100 levels for players to unlock. In addition to battling in GWENT's Standard, Seasonal and Draft modes, weekly quests can be undertaken to provide more opportunities to progress through levels, while new chapters of this latest Journey's story will also be available each week — centering around two higher vampires: Regis, an old friend and companion of Geralt of Rivia, and Dettlaff van der Eretein, known from The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt expansion Blood and Wine. Watch the Journey Season 7 Trailer As with previous seasons, the 7th season of Journey is available in two tiers. The free tier is available to all GWENT players and offers avatars, borders, and reward points to unlock — while Journey's Premium paid tier offers all that and more, with cardbacks, coins, music tracks, and titles to unlock, alongside the Regis neutral leader skin as well as alternative outfits and trinkets for Regis to equip during battles. Journey Season 7 begins today and will run for three months. Learn More About the Latest Season of Journey Also available from today in GWENT is Saovine — an annual Halloween-themed event, where this year players must complete special quests given by the three Crones: Whispess, Brewess, and Weavess. Once a player completes all quests from one of the three Crones, they will unlock a title, avatar, and border — and will then be free to accept quests from the remaining Crones. Players will also receive a special coin for doing the bidding of two of the Crones, and a border trinket for completing every task for all three of them. All brand new 11 Saovine rewards can only be gained during this event by fulfilling the Crones' demands. During Saovine, a number of Halloween-inspired ornaments will also be on sale in the GWENT in-game store, including two brand new items: the Saovine gameboard and the Bat Wings trinket for Shupe's leader skin. Saovine will come to an end at 12:00 noon, November 4th CET. Watch the Saovine Event Trailer GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com.   Source: CD Projekt
(WETH) Wrapped Ether Explained. What Is It?

ETH Price (ETH To USD) To Decrease Even More Than Recently?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 19.01.2022 16:02
Ethereum price is still under pressure from the red descending trend line. ETH price is set to break $3,018, bringing the price below $3,000. Expect a further continuation to go hand-in-hand with current financial market sentiment. Ethereum (ETH) price is cracking under the strain and targeting $3,000, with the last line of defense at $3,018 under tremendous pressure from bears. The overall downtrend, dictated by the red descending trend line, and current global market headwinds are only contributing further to downside momentum. Expect a break towards $2,695 before analysts start to speak about a break below $2,000. Ethereum price needs to defend $2,695 to avert a 45% decline Ethereum price is flashing red warning lights all over the place as bears prepare to bomb the $3,000 barrier and price action starts to drill down on the last line of defense at $3,018. Although the area is a historical level and the monthly S1 support level falls in line with this area, it is set to probably break anyway as the mix of the established downtrend and global market headwinds is likely to be too much to bear. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to being oversold; it could still firmly push beyond this level as it already traded around the area back on January 08. The next level of interest for bulls, which they are likely to defend tooth-and-claw, is $2,695, which provided support around September 21 and acted as entry-level for a 75% rally. With the RSI firmly in the oversold area, this should see some pickup in demand on the buy-side. If demand is not there and bulls are reluctant to engage with large demand sizes, expect a break that would see a rapid flood of selling pressure, with the target set to $2,000 as not many elements are in between to provide solid support. ETH/USD daily chart Bulls could sweat out the current market correction and easily make a U-turn once global markets start to return green numbers. A shift in sentiment would easily see Ethereum price bounce off $3,018 and touchback at $3,391. In case ETH should close above that level, it would be set to break out of the red descending trendline, reversing the downtrend, with even more investors and bulls then joining the rally, back up towards $4,000.00.
UK inflation reaches 30 year high

UK inflation reaches 30 year high

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 19.01.2022 12:08
While the government and Bank of England have attempted to deal with the rise in prices and creeping inflation, today's figures continue to show that the path forward may be longer than expected. While a slight adjustment in monetary policy may contribute, today’s data showed the highest level in 30 years as the economy is still recovering from the pandemic and could take a significant amount of time to return to normal levels. Ultimately, this situation continues to impact everyday consumers who may see some very noticeable changes to their lifestyle and expenses if the ongoing trend continues. Crypto markets retreat as investors worry about increased regulation and central bank decisions Crypto markets along with other traditional risk assets continue to feel the pressure of incoming fiscal and monetary policy changes from central banks which is due to remove some of the excess liquidity from markets after the unprecedented support received by them, However, crypto is currently dealing a wide variety of negative news and potential increases in regulations which have contributed to the recent pullback across assets as Ethereum continues to hover above the key $3000 psychological level. While fundamental factors may have changed slightly, the second biggest coin is trading at the lowest level in several months and as traders await a catalyst, the situation remains potentially quite volatile. Activision Blizzard acquisition by Microsoft could be a game changer This $68,7 Billion deal could prove to be a turning point for Activision Blizzard, who has seen its share price drop more than 44% in the last year on the back of disappointing results and a number of corporate as well as internal issues. Microsoft announced it will be offering as many Activision Blizzard games as possible within Xbox Game Pass and PC Game Pass, which just reached 25 million subscribers, and might provide the much needed boost in player base. Furthermore, a more direct input in general operations decisions could aim to rectify decisional issues and bring a more united direction for the company moving forward. Investors already reacted to this news favourably with Activision Blizzard stock price gaining over 30% on Tuesday while Sony stock actually fell as shareholders consider the risks associated with this acquisition.  
Another One Bites the Dust

Another One Bites the Dust

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.01.2022 16:36
S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and credit markets confirm the grim picture. There is a but, though – quality debt instruments turned higher, and maintained much of their intraday gains.And that could be a sign – in spite of the bearish onslaught driving the buyers back to the basement before the closing bell – that more buying would materialize to close this week, with consequences for S&P 500 as well. I would simply have preferred to see rising yields once again, that would be a great catalyst of further stock market selling. Now, the wisest course of action looks to be waiting for the upcoming upswing (one that didn‘t develop during the Asian session really), to get exhausted.Remember my yesterday‘s words:(…) The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line.Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking.And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job.With SPX short profits off the table, crude oil consolidating, and cryptos having second thoughts about the decline continuation, it‘s been precious metals that stole the spotlight yesterday – really great moves across the board to enjoy!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen – what kind of reflexive rebound would we get next? The odds aren‘t arrayed for it to be reaching very high – yields are catching up even with financials...Credit MarketsHYG is likely to pause a little next, and the degree of its move relative to the quality debt instruments, would be telling. Rates are though going to keep rising, so keep looking for a temporary HYG stabilization only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver keep catching fire, and are slowly breaking out of the unpleasantly long consolidation. The strongly bullish undertones are playing out nicely – these aren‘t yet the true celebrations.Crude OilCrude oil looks like it could pause a little here – the stellar run (by no means over yet) is attracting selling interest. The buyers are likely to pause for a moment over the next few days.CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up – the red metal will be dragged higher alongside the other commodities, and isn‘t yet offering signs of true, outperforming strength.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum really are setting up a little breather, but I‘m not looking for bullish miracles to happen. Still, the buying interest was there yesterday, and that would influence the entry to the coming week (bullishly).SummaryS&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only. Not until there is a change in the credit markets, have the stock market bulls snowball‘s chance in hell. Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously, and the time for another position opening, looks slowly but surely approaching. Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold: Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Macro Influences - The Latest "As Good As Gold" Is Here!

Russian Bear and Inflationary Hydra Sent Gold to $1,840

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 20.01.2022 17:24
  Gold soared as investors got scared by reports of an allegedly impending military conflict. Was it worth reacting sharply to geopolitical factors? Gold has been performing quite nicely in January. As the chart below shows, its price increased from $1,806 at the end of December to around $1,820 this week, strengthening its position above $1,800. Yesterday (January 19, 2022), gold prices went sharply higher, jumping above $1,840, as one can see in the chart below. What happened? Investors got scared of the Russian bear and inflationary hydra. President Biden predicted that Russia would move into Ukraine. The threat of invasion and renewal of a conflict weakened risk appetite among investors. To complete the geopolitical picture, this week, North Korea fired missiles again (on Monday, the country conducted its fourth missile test of the year), while terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones. The heightened risk aversion could spur some demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The yellow metal tends to benefit from greater uncertainty. However, investors should remember that geopolitical risks usually cause only a short-lived reaction. Investors also recalled the ongoing global inflationary crisis. Some news helped them wake up. In the U.K., inflation surged 5.4% in December, the highest since March 1992. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation jumped 4.8%, also the fastest pace in 30 years. Additionally, crude oil prices have jumped to around $86.5 per barrel, the highest value since 2014, as the chart below shows. The timing couldn’t be worse, as inflation is already elevated, while higher oil implies higher CPI in the future. Gold should, therefore, welcome the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, it could prompt the Fed to react more forcefully and aggressively to tighten its monetary policy.   Implications for Gold What does the recent mini-rally imply for the gold market? Well, it’s never a good idea to draw far-reaching conclusions from short-term moves, especially those caused by geopolitical factors. Risk-offs and risk-on sentiments come and go. However, let’s do justice to gold. It hit a two-months high, more and more boldly settling in above $1,800. All this happened despite rising bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates have increased from about -1.0% at the end of 2021 to about -0.6%. Gold’s resilience in the face of rising interest rates is praiseworthy. Having said that, investors shouldn’t forget that 2022 will be a year of the Fed’s tightening cycle, rising interest rates, and also a certain moderation in inflation. All these factors could be important headwinds for gold this year. However, investors may underestimate how the Fed’s monetary policy will impact market conditions. After all, the Fed’s hawkish stance also entails some risks for the financial markets and the overall economy. Practically, each tightening cycle in the past has led to an economic crisis. As a reminder, after four hikes in 2018, the Fed had to reverse its stance and cut them in 2019. The Fed signaled not only a few hikes this year, but also a reduction of its balance sheet. Given the enormous indebtedness of the economy and Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, it might be too much to swallow. Importantly, when the Fed is focused on fighting inflation, its ability to help the markets will be limited. I thought that such worries would arise later this year, supporting gold, but maybe the gold market has already started to price in the possibility of economic turbulence triggered by the Fed’s tightening cycle. Anyway, next week, the FOMC will gather for the first time in 2022, and it could be an important, insightful event for the gold market. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

Gold Price Chart Might Make Some Investors Happy, US 30 With Reds

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.01.2022 08:59
XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine. Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877. The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December. A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420. US 30 tests major support The Dow Jones 30 retreats as traders take profit ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term. The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.
Gamestop (GME) Stock Price and Forecast: Any pop from Activision (ATVI), Microsoft (MSFT) deal?

Gamestop (GME) Stock Price and Forecast: Any pop from Activision (ATVI), Microsoft (MSFT) deal?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 20.01.2022 15:58
GameStop stock fails to ignite despite the gaming sector being in play. GameStop is a bystander retailer, while the big activity is game makers. GME stock remains bearish in our view despite a mid-week short squeeze attempt. GameStop (GME) stock surged in early January but has since slumped consistently. At least some volatility returned to the name. GameStop was the original meme stock but has been suffering of late as investors turn their backs on high growth and high-risk names. GameStop Stock News A pop of 7% on January 7 has been about as good as it gets so far this year for GameStop (GME) holders as the stock exhibits more signs of dwindling interest in the meme stock space. The Wall Street Journal did report on January 7 that GameStop was entering the NFT and cryptocurrency market. This has echoes of another meme stock, AMC. It may smack of desperation or even bad timing given the crypto and NFT craze has also retreated in line with meme stocks. Or it may be a shrewd move. Time will tell, but so far the shares have not given the news much traction. Interest did spike in GME on the back of the mega-deal from Microsoft (MSFT) offering up $69 billion in cash to buy Activision (ATVI), but GameStop is merely a powerless bystander in the acquisition fervor sweeping the gaming sector. GameStop (GME) jumped to the top of WallStreetBets mentions, but this has not seen the correlated share price uptick. In fact, GME shares are down 17% in a week. That takes losses so far for 2022 to nearly 30%. One year on and it does not look like history is going to repeat itself. Video game sales data out yesterday was not exactly comforting with the figure in December down 1% following November's 10% fall. GameStop Stock Forecast The chart is still highly bearish, which was triggered after the double-top formation. This played out and reached our $150 target and then some. Now GME has broken the $118 level, which brings $86 firmly into focus as the next major target. Obviously, $100 along the way will generate headlines, but this is purely psychological. We also note the volume gap from $110 to $70 that could accelerate the move. Bearish unless $160 is broken. GameStop (GME) chart, daily
Hotels increase their accommodation base

Hotels increase their accommodation base

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.01.2022 11:08
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 17.01.2022 The growing interest in domestic tourism is conducive to the development of accommodation facilities in resorts. Interesting city hotels are also opening. The current year should bring stabilization in the hotel industry as more countries move from treating the covid as pandemic to endemic - Speaking of the current shape of the hotel sector, it is difficult to treat the market as a whole. Today we are dealing with two markets. The first of them - the city hotel market, considered safer before the pandemic, due to a more balanced structure of guests, as well as less seasonality than the second hotel market, that is tourist hotels. Currently, it is the latter market that is doing much better and is recovering from losses. City hotels, on the other hand, largely focus on maintaining the current profitability, however, in the fall, there was a recovery in demand from business guests and MICE. The results that the industry finished 2021 with are far from those before the market changes, but last year we could already see a recovery in demand and average prices on the market - says Katarzyna Tencza, Associate Director Investment & Hospitality at Walter Herz. Although there were fewer foreign guests, the hunger for travel and the uncertainty associated with overseas travel meant that in July and August last year, about 190 thousand more Poles stayed in hotels than in the summer of 2019. Demand accumulated in the summer as a result of, among others, the restrictions that hotels were subject to in the winter and spring months. The summer season in the resorts was very successful. The beginning of autumn in the resorts brought a sustained high demand for leisure and group stays. In November and December, the situation was clearly worse, with the exception of the holiday season, which was another opportunity for hotels in holiday destinations to increase revenues. - Good results obtained by resort facilities during the summer do not mean that the entire year 2021 can be considered successful by the industry. The turnover in the entire sector was lower than that achieved before the pandemic. The year 2022 should bring a continuation of the recovery in demand in the city markets - says Katarzyna Tencza. Ownership changes Despite the difficulties faced by hotels, so far we have not dealt with many transactions on our market. Especially that the largest market players mostly refrain from acquiring assets in this segment. The mass bankruptcies which were to happen in 2021, did not take place. Hotels for sale are not very attractive to investors due to location or other factors. The transactions took place mainly on regional markets. For example, NK Rysy company purchased Hotel Rysy, located in the very center of Zakopane. The unfinished Ewerdin hotel in Swinoujscie was also sold. In the second half of the year, a 100-room hotel located in the center of Cracow was also sold. We could also observe transactions concerning hotel facilities intended for other functions. Orbis has signed a preliminary agreement for the sale of the Ibis Hotel in Kielce, which is to be transformed into a different function facility. The deserted Astoria hotel in Klodzko was sold to a developer from Cracow, who after the renovation, will probably offer retail and service space. Polkomtel bought the Ossa hotel located in Ossa near Rawa Mazowiecka, in order to build a rehabilitation center. Polski Holding Hotelowy is also active on the market, which carries out the process of consolidation of facilities providing hotel services, owned by state-owned companies. PHH concluded a conditional agreement for the purchase of Geovita SA, part of the Polish Oil and Gas Mining Group, which manages several recreational facilities throughout Poland. The holding has also signed a conditional agreement with PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna for the purchase of ten hotels and facilities belonging to Elbest, one of its companies that owns hotels, including in Krynica, MiÄ™dzyzdroje, Myczkowce nad Solina as well as facilities in Krasnobrod and Szklarska Poreba. Polski Holding Hotelowy has also signed conditional agreements for the purchase of a controlling stake in Interferie and shares in Interferie Medical SPA, companies belonging to the KGHM Group, thanks to which it will receive another six properties. New, high-class facilities in resorts In 2021, holiday resorts expanded their offer of high-quality hotel facilities. The recent openings are, of course, the result of investment processes initiated before the market turmoil. Tourist accommodation resources in the country increased, among others, thanks to the opening of the Radisson Resort hotel in Kolobrzeg with 209 rooms and an aquapark, the five-star Crystal Mountain hotel in WisÅ‚a with almost 500 rooms and an aquapark, and the 124-room Tremonti Ski&Bike Resort complex in Karpacz. Despite the difficulties, the hotel market continues to expand its resource base. New seaside hotel investments, as in previous years, are mostly located on the line between Swinoujscie and Kolobrzeg. Hotel investments in this region are mostly condo hotels. The largest projects include the Wave MiÄ™dzyzdroje Resort & SPA hotel with 393 suites, Aqua Resort in Miedzyzdroje with 300 rooms and an aquapark, 435-room Radisson Blu Resort in Miedzywodzie, Hotel GoÅ‚Ä™biewski in Pobierowo with approximately 1400 rooms, PINEA Resort & Apartments in Pobierowo with 138 apartments, 266-room Mövenpick in Kolobrzeg, Baltic Wave in Kolobrzeg which is to offer 468 suites. Polish mountains offer interesting hotel investments, also largely sold in the condo system, Among the most interesting projects are Elements Hotel & SPA in Swieradow Zdroj with 289 rooms, Sanssouci Karpacz MGallery Hotel Collection with 110 rooms, Movenpick in Karpacz with 126 rooms, Mövenpick Zakopane Imperial Hotel with 130 rooms, Infinity Zieleniec Ski & SPA in Duszniki Zdroj with 328 apartments, and Linden Hotel & Resort in Szklarska Poreba with 137 rooms. New city hotels - Hotel chains previously focused mainly on municipal investments, are now very active also in the holiday destinations. In addition, smaller regional cities are gaining in importance. Unfortunately, high prices of investment plots and fierce competition in the fight for land from investors developing apartments for rent and dormitories, as well as rising construction costs make it more and more difficult to budget for the new hotel projects. Banks are still very cautious about financing hotel investments - informs Katarzyna Tencza. The investment interest in the sector is mainly in tourist destinations, but urban locations can also offer visitors new, interesting facilities. Last year saw the opening of such facilities as the ibis Styles Kraków Centrum hotel with 259 rooms, NYX Hotel Warsaw of the Leonardo Hotels chain with 331 rooms, located in the Varso Place complex near the Warsaw Central Station, Tulip Residences Warsaw Targowa hotel with 110 units, and Mercure Katowice Centrum with 268 rooms. In addition, the 195-room Mercure Kraków Fabryczna City hotel appeared on the Cracow market, 300-room AC Hotel by Marriott Kraków and Courtyard by Marriott Szczecin City hotel was opened in the Posejdon complex in Szczecin. It offers134 rooms. In WrocÅ‚aw, guests were welcomed by the Jazz aparthotel with 62 rooms and Hotel Herbal with 66 rooms, and at the end of last year, Dwór Uphagena Arche Hotel GdaÅ„sk with 145 rooms was opened in Gdansk. The Olsztyn market welcomed the 105-room Hampton by Hilton Olsztyn hotel. This year, the city hotel market will be supplied with a dozen or so new facilities under the brands of international and Polish brands. Most of them are hotels for which investment decisions were made before the pandemic. The Warsaw market is to be supplied, among others, by 238-room Focus Hotel Premium Warszawa located in Mokotow, 192-room Staybridge Suites Warszawa Ursynów, 448-room Royal Tulip Warsaw Apartments in Unique Tower building on Grzybowska Street, 96-room Autograph Collection by Marriott International in Warsaw's Old Town, or 66-room Flaner Hotel WorldHotels Crafted Collection. In Cracow, a 216-room Hyatt Place Kraków hotel, 125-room Autograph Collection by Marriott International, 116-room Curio Collection by Hilton Hotel Saski Kraków, 53-room Garamond Boutique Hotel Tribute Portfolio, and 173-room Hampton by Hilton Krakow Airport hotel are to open next year. A 130-room B&B hotel is to welcome guests in Lublin, and a 122-room Hampton by Hilton BiaÅ‚ystok is to be commissioned in Bialystok. The 201-room Q Hotel Plus WrocÅ‚aw Bielany will open in Wroclaw and the former Sofitel Wroclaw Old Town hotel with 205 rooms will reopen under the Wyndham brand. More challenges The rapidly changing market conditions mean that the industry is facing new challenges. The greatest difficulties that hotels will have to grapple with in the near future are the rising costs of living and the lack of employees. Problems are also related to the recovery of demand from corporate guests, the MICE sector and foreign tourists. Rises in energy, gas and garbage disposal prices, and rising labor costs, are making it difficult for the sector to recover. Growing inflation driving the costs of maintaining facilities is forcing a rise in accommodation prices. We can expect an increase in accommodation prices in the upcoming months, both in holiday destinations and urban locations. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
NASDAQ: NFLX Stock Price Decreased, Crypto Market Changed

NASDAQ: NFLX Stock Price Decreased, Crypto Market Changed

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 21.01.2022 12:35
Yesterday’s Q4 earnings report from Netflix was seen as a major disappointment with forecasts pointing to weaker subscriber growth amid rising competition, particularly when compared to the first part of 2021. While the company referred to increased competition as a major cause of this uncertainty, rising prices of plans may also be deterring some customers who now have access to a wide range of streaming services including Disney+ and HBO Max. The company’s stock dropped around 20% in after hours trading and could be set to begin today's trading in the $400 area - the lowest level since May 2020. Despite there being a general risk-off mood in markets, which has seen many other stocks also retreat, it remains to be seen if Netflix will manage to rebound or if it will continue heading lower. Crypto markets tank as risk-off moods dominate While it may appear that the crypto market has taken a big hit today, with the majority of top 100 coins down by around 10%, it is important to note that the general sentiment across markets is quite negative when relating to risk assets. This is in part due to the increasing prospects of fiscal and monetary policy changes from central banks, in particular the FED, which would remove a significant amount of liquidity from the market and that ultimately could lead to a significant fund reallocation. Furthermore, while we have seen major cryptos like Ethereum and Bitcoin drop below key levels like $3000 and $40,000, and reach the lowest level in several months they are both testing key support areas which previously preceded significant upward moves. While the global situation may be slightly different, it is worth keeping in mind that recent negative performance is not limited to the cryptocurrency market but is being seen across many different types of asset classes, albeit on a somewhat smaller scale. UK Retails sales decline and worry investors The 3,7% decline in retail sales illustrated by today’s report continues to indicate rising prices and economic uncertainty as some of the key reasons for the slowing down of sales. Despite Non-food stores sales falling noticeably in December, food store sales managed to only drop by 1% and retail sales as a whole were able to remain above pre pandemic levels. As the situation grows more uncertain and as inflation continues to be a key factor, it remains unclear whether central banks and governments will decide to take action or if they will wait and see if things improve naturally.
S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip?

S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 21.01.2022 15:38
  The S&P 500 index broke below its early December low. Are we in a new bear market or is this still just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 1.10% on Thursday following its Wednesday’s decline of around 1%. The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,500 level and it was the lowest since mid-October. Investors reacted to quarterly earnings releases and further Russia-Ukraine tensions. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning the market is expected to open 0.4% lower and it will most likely extend the downtrend. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,500-4,525, marked by the recent support level. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 4,450. The S&P 500 broke below an over month-long upward trend line this week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Below its Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market broke below its previous local lows along the 4,520 level. There was a chance that entering a long position would be justified here, but any short-term bullish scenario seems invalidated now. On the other hand, it may be too late to enter a short position right now, because of some clear technical oversold conditions. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning, so it will likely extend a short-term downtrend. We may see another intraday rebound, but there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Yesterday we’ve seen a convincing rally, but it failed and the market sold off to new lows. The coming quarterly earnings releases (next week we’ll have MSFT, AAPL, TSLA among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached yet another new low yesterday and it was the lowest since mid-October. Stocks will most likely bounce at some point, but any rally may be short-lived. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Still Pushing for More

Still Pushing for More

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.01.2022 16:23
S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. Tech investors are selling first, and asking questions later, with consumer discretionaries, financials, and also energy hit. The washout S&P 500 bottom is approaching, and our fresh short profits are growing...Talking profits, after a one-day consolidation in precious metals, time has come to cash in on crude oil gains before the decline questioning $86 – that‘s second outsized gains trade in a row there. Black gold won‘t likely be held down for too long, and the same goes for copper knocking on $4.60 for the third time shortly. Excellent for the bottom line.This is the season of real assets (commodities and precious metals), and of the stock market correction still playing out, and driving open crypto short profits alike. Much to enjoy across the board as my fresh portfolio performance chart (check out my homesite) reached a solid new high yesterday – it‘s one year today since I launched my site. Tremendous journey building on prior own strength – thank you very much!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers still can‘t get their act together – the momentum remains to the downside until credit markets turn and tech bleeding stops. This can happen as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take.Credit MarketsHYG pause didn‘t last long, and the volume keeps being elevated without credible signs of buying interest. What‘s more, the credit market posture is decidedly risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are likely to pause a little, the miners say – but the propensity to rise is there, even this early in the tightening cycle. I‘m looking for dips to be eagerly bought.Crude OilCrude oil looks like seeing the bullish resolve tested soon, and odds are the dip would be relatively quickly bought. Still, the pace of steep upswings is likely to slow down next, I say so even as I continue being medium-term bullish ($90 is doable).CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up, and it‘s good the red metal managed to rise even if quite a few other commodities stalled. Waking up alongside silver, finally?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum little breather is over, the bears did strike again – and it may not be over yet, really not.SummaryThe opening sentence of yesterday‘s summary proved very true, and even faster that I thought possible - „S&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only.“ With the bears in the driving seat overnight – on the heels of a risk-off turn in the credit markets – we‘re likely to witness today another selling attempt.Another yesterday mentioned conclusion remains true as well - „Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously... Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.“ Let‘s just add that cryptos are making us smile today, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish?

Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 21.01.2022 16:06
  The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it. With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine? Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom. To explain, I wrote on Jan. 20: From the technical point of view, we just saw another day similar to the other days that I marked with vertical dashed lines and black arrows. Those days were either right at the tops or not far from them. As much as yesterday’s (7%!) rally looks bullish, taking a look at the situation from a broad perspective provides us with the opposite – bearish – implications. The zig-zag scenario is being realized as well. The GDX ETF moved to the upper border of the rising trend channel. Also, doesn’t it remind you of something? Hint: it happened at a similar time of the year. Yes, the current price/volume action is similar to what we saw in early 2021. The RSI was above 60, a short-term rally that was preceded by a bigger decline, and a strong daily rally on huge volume at the end of the corrective rally. We’ve seen it all now, and we saw it in early 2021. Please see below: What’s more, the senior miners’ fatigue is already present. For example, the GDX ETF declined by 1.40% on Jan. 20, and the index ended the session only $0.30 above its 2021 close. Likewise, the senior miners failed to rally above the upper trendline of their ascending channel (drawn with the blue lines above). As a result, the price action resembles an ABC zigzag pattern, and while the short-term outlook is less certain, the medium-term outlook is profoundly bearish. As further evidence, the HUI Index’s weekly chart provides some important clues. For example, despite the profound rally on Jan. 19, the index’s stochastic indicator still hasn’t recorded a buy signal. Moreover, the HUI Index dropped after reaching its 50-week moving average, and the ominous rejection mirrors 2013. Back then, the index approached its 50-week moving average, then suffered a pullback, and then suffered a monumental decline. As a result, is this time really different? Remember – history tends to rhyme, and this time the analogies from the past favor a bearish forecast for gold stocks. Turning to the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners were off to the races on Jan. 19. However, the size of the rally is actually smaller than what we witnessed in early 2021. Moreover, when the short-term sugar high ended back then, optimism turned to pessimism and the GDXJ ETF sank to new lows. Thus, with the junior miners’ 2021 story one of lower highs and lower lows, 2022 will likely result in more of the same. Please see below: Finally, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now at 30. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 20 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows. Likewise, when the BPGDM hit 30 in 2013, the HUI Index was already in the midst of its medium-term downtrend (similar to what we witnessed in 2021). However, the milestone was far from the final low. With material weakness persisting and a lasting bottom not forming until the end of 2015/early 2016, further downside for gold (and silver) likely lies ahead. For context, it’s my belief that the precious metals will bottom when the BPGDM hits zero – and perhaps when it remains there for some time. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks put on quite a show on Jan. 19. However, with their bullish rhythm known to turn bearish in an instant, investors should proceed with caution. Moreover, the data shows that when investors rush to buy the precious metals, their over-enthusiasm results in medium-term weakness, not strength. As a result, the trio’s declines likely have more room to run before long-term buying opportunities emerge later in 2022. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The Price Chart Of Crude Oil Shows An "Ascending" Peak

The Price Chart Of Crude Oil Shows An "Ascending" Peak

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 21.01.2022 14:45
  Recently, oil prices hit their highest levels in 7 years. Despite this, we are witnessing a surprising increase in US inventories. Why is that? Energy Market Updates Crude oil retreated this morning in the pre-US trading session, after another volatile day on Thursday. It was followed by the weekly release of US inventory figures that surprised the market with an increase in stocks published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, market participants were expecting a drop close to 1 million barrels, which implies a slowdown in demand. This imbalance has led to soaring prices for petroleum products and distillates, which will add pressure on households and businesses already struggling with higher levels of inflation. Also, as I mentioned in more detail on Wednesday, there are also geopolitical tensions in various regions carrying some uncertainty, which is an additional turbine to propel oil prices. (Source: Investing.com) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Do you think that black gold will be worth three figures ($100) anytime soon? In the first quarter of 2022, maybe? Let us know in the comments. That’s all folks for today. Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Despite market sell-off, TSLA finished Thursday in the green

Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Despite market sell-off, TSLA finished Thursday in the green

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.01.2022 16:06
TSLA finished Thursday in the green, gaining 0.06% to $996.27. Equities had gyrated sharply but fell as the close approached. Tesla stock outperforms as Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fall sharply. Tesla (TSLA) managed to hold onto intraday gains but only just barely on Thursday. Stocks (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) had opened well and were up some 1% for the main indices at the halfway stage of Thursday, but jitters resurfaced as the finish line approached. Investors began dumping positions, and the main indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, the Dow closed 0.89% lower and the Nasdaq closed down the most at 1.34% in the red. Tesla however just held onto a green day, up 0.06%. Given that it is a volatile name and a high beta one, this was a strong outperformance. Tesla Stock News: bearish Bank of America forecast a worrying sign Tesla (TSLA) stock may have held its ground in anticipation of its Q4 earnings, which are due out next week. Bank of America and Piper Sandler fought it out with conflicting analyst reports. Bank of America took a dim view of Tesla's market share forecasts, saying it would drop from 69% to 19% of the EV market due to legacy automakers ramping up EV production. However, Piper Sandler noted that it sees Tesla beating delivery estimates for the year due to factories in Texas and Berlin ramping up production. For now, it appears investors are putting more focus on those delivery numbers and anticipating a strong earnings report. The Bank of America report is more alarming, but it does have a longer term outlook with the market share fall predicted for 2024. Tesla Stock Forecast: $886 is a futher downside target Yesterday's move has kept Tesla above the key short-term pivot at $980, but note that yesterday's high price was stuck at the 9-day moving average and Tesla failed to break through. This gives us more belief in an imminent break of $980. If this level does go, then the move to $886 will likely be quick due to a lack of volume. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily
Shiba Inu price set to crash by 70% as critical support weakens

Shiba Inu price set to crash by 70% as critical support weakens

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.01.2022 16:06
Shiba Inu price sees bears drilling down on an important area of support. SHIB price could see a nose dive reaction later today should the US session see accelerated selloffs. A break below the 200-day SMA could hold 70% of losses before plenty of support is found. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues to be controlled by bears after the dead-cat bounce in stock markets yesterday evening. With the Nasdaq closing sharply lower, giving up earlier gains, cryptocurrencies are being dragged into a selloff on its coattails, and bearish headwinds persist. Expect a further continuation of downside tests, with $0.00002576, up next, and a break below that opening up the possibility of SHIB price being decimated towards $0.00000655 – a 70% devaluation. Shiba Inu hanging by a thread before price action could collapse Shiba Inu price is in a vortex along with other financial market assets, after the US session saw a180 degree U-turn to the downside. The ASIA PAC and European sessions are also sharply lower and with risk assets being slashed across the board. This is being reflected in cryptocurrencies where a selloff is also taking place. At the moment, SHIB price is drilling down to $0.00002482, a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the monthly S1 support level intersect.This should offer plenty of support, but with current market sentiment so negative, it is not a given that investors will want to step in and support the trade. A break lower would see price next pause at $0.00001623, the S2 monthly support. The level of the S2 does not hold any historical relevance, however, making it relatively weak, and the only key level further down looks to be $0.00000607, just above the S3 monthly support, and the starting point of a Fibonacci retracement. Depending on how the US session will unfold, expect this to be on the cards in the days to come if markets enter into correction territory or even into a recession. The result would be SHIB shedding 70% of its market value from where it is currently trading. SHIB/USD daily chart Often enough, markets see an uptick after a gloomy negative day like yesterday. Investors start to come in and pick up interesting assets at a discount, and markets finally get to a point where a revaluation trade is made. This could be the same for Shiba Inu, with the 200-day SMA holding its ground, supporting price action, and a bullish candle starting to form with a test at the 55-day SMA around $0.00003395.
USDCHF, CADJPY And UK 100 - All Of Them Got Some Gains

USDCHF, CADJPY And UK 100 - All Of Them Got Some Gains

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.01.2022 09:51
USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.
Nike Stock News and Forecast: NKE just does it again with earnings beat on top and bottom

Nike Stock News and Forecast: NKE just does it again with earnings beat on top and bottom

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.12.2021 15:54
Nike reported earnings after the close on Monday. NKE stock is higher after a beat on revenue and earnings per share. Nike says Vietnam production levels are now back to 80% of prior volumes. Nike (NKE) seems to have yielded to its longtime trademark – "Just Do It". The company certainly did that on Monday as it unveiled another strong set of results. Not only that, but concerns over supplies from Vietnam were quieted, and the shares are likely to open higher on Tuesday. Nike stock news Earnings per share came in at $0.83, ahead of the $0.63 estimate. This was a significant beat. Revenue was also ahead at $11.36 billion versus estimates for $11.25 billion. Nike shares popped over 2% on the earnings release. With global equity markets looking a bit healthier on Tuesday morning, expect more gains for NKE stock price as the session progresses. Recent concerns over Vietnam supplies had held Nike stock back. Vietnam is a major textile supplier globally, and it was not just Nike that was affected. A covid outbreak had forced numerous closures. However, Nike outlined in the earnings release that Vietnam production levels were now back up to 80% of preclosure levels. The company said it expects revenue to grow in the low single digits for Q3 in line with consensus at just over 2%. Nike has mentioned that input costs are rising and is planning for supply chain costs to rise. Nike did say that it expects margins to rise 150 basis points. This margin gain is being driven by a direct selling online model that Nike has been adopting. Nike stock forecast Nike is not cheap. The stock I mean, not the sneakers! The company trades on a relatively high price/earnings multiple of 45. This is a significant premium to its peers and reflective of Nike's leadership position. Technically, things do not look too positive in the longer-term outlook either. We have a very clear double top in place from August and November. It remains to be seen if Nike shares will be able to hold above resistance at $164-$166 from the 9 and 21-day moving averages. We doubt it and would be fading any rally. Longer term we have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. There is big support coming from the 200-day moving average. Look how well that worked in late September. Currently, the 200-day is at $152. A solid break of that and Nike stock will look to fill the gap created by earnings on June 24. That support is at $134. Failure to fill that gap will be a sign to get back in again, just like in late September. Retracements are opportunities to identify a longer-term trend at play. A retracement that does not create a new significant low is obviously bullish. How to identify one is the tricky part. Given that this is a longer-term time frame, the trick is actually to be slightly late to the party and wait for confirmation. NKE 1-day chart
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Price Of Bitcoin Below $36k And Price Of Ether Below $2.5k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.01.2022 09:39
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 11 on Sunday and slightly up to 13 by early Monday. Crypto market capitalisation lost another 1.1% overnight to $1.61 trillion, the lowest since August. As is often the case with prolonged sell-offs, altcoins are falling with acceleration to the first cryptocurrency, causing BTC's share gains, which already stands at 41.3% against lows of 39.3% in mid-January. Bitcoin's share of 40% seems like a turning point, twice triggering a correction in the crypto market. This level stood like an informal threshold that optimism about altcoins had gone too far. However, the rise in bitcoin's share does little to help its price. We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area. Alarmingly, the sharp reversal on Friday was not followed by any meaningful bounce. Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation. Without capitulation, the markets will remain with an overhang of sellers. The price of ether has fallen to $2400, which is less than half of its peak price in November. Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether. We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.
Price of Gold Hasn't Increased a Lot Since the Beginning of the Year

Price of Gold Hasn't Increased a Lot Since the Beginning of the Year

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 24.01.2022 14:47
  You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear. What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices. The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy. It needs to be said, though, as that continues to be an important factor for the future of the precious metals market. To be clear – the implications for the PM sector are bearish. What about gold, the key precious metal? Gold is so far almost unchanged this year, despite the initial decline and the subsequent rally. Overall, gold is up by $3.20 so far in 2022, which is next to nothing. Gold rallied on a supposedly dangerous situation regarding Ukraine, but it failed to rally above the combination of resistance lines and very little changed technically. On a side note, I would like to remind you that, based on our own reliable source in Ukraine (one of our team members is located there), the risk of military conflict (in particular, a severe one) is low, and it seems that the market’s reaction was greatly exaggerated. Anyway, moving back to technicals, let’s keep this $3.20-up-this-year statistic in mind while we take a look at what’s going on in silver and mining stocks. Silver declined on Friday, but it’s still up by $0.97 so far in 2022. This means that on a short-term basis, silver greatly outperformed gold. What’s up with mining stocks? The GDX ETF – a proxy for generally senior mining stocks – is down this year by $0.38, which is 1.19%. At the same time, the GDXJ ETF is down by $0.87, which is 2.07%. In other words: While silver is outperforming gold on a short-term basis, gold mining stocks are underperforming it. Junior mining stocks (our short position) are declining more than senior miners, and in fact, they are declining the most out of the entire precious metals sector. Silver’s outperformance, accompanied by gold miners weakness, is a powerful bearish combination in the case of the entire precious metals sector. If the general stock market is going to slide, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) are likely to decline in a rather extreme manner. The thing is… We just saw something in the general stock market that we haven’t seen since early 2020 – right before the massive decline that triggered the huge declines in the precious metals sector. The RSI Index just moved below 30 for the first time since pre-slide moments. Just like what we saw back then, the S&P 500 is now declining on increasing volume. Yes, RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold territory, but the direct analogies take precedence over the “usual” way in which things work in markets in general. In this case, the situation could get from oversold to extremely oversold. Let’s keep in mind that stocks declined very sharply in 2020. One could say that times were different, but were they really? The key difference is that the monetary authorities are now already after the bullish money-printing cycle and are handling inflation by aiming to increase interest rates, while they had been preparing to cut them in 2020. The situation regarding the pandemic is not that different either. Sure, back in 2020, it was all new, we had massive lockdowns and there was great uncertainty regarding… pretty much everything. Now, the situation is not entirely unexpected, but given the explosive nature of new COVID-19 cases (likely due to the Omicron variant), it’s still quite new and uncertain. The uncertainty is not as great as it was back in 2020, but then again, now we’re facing monetary tightening, not dramatic dovish actions. Thus, I wouldn’t exclude a situation in which we really see a repeat of the early-2020 performance, where the declines are sharp and huge. The technicals in the precious metals market have been pointing to that outcome for months anyway, especially the long-term HUI Index chart that I’ve been discussing previously. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Tech Stocks: (MSFT) Microsoft Stock, Facts About Microsoft

Tech Stocks: (MSFT) Microsoft Stock, Facts About Microsoft

Dividend Power Dividend Power 24.01.2022 15:51
As stocks have trended higher, especially the tech stocks, soared in 2021, we must be reminded that Microsoft is once again one of the top companies in the world by market cap. Apple is number one in the world by market cap, and Microsoft continues to be right behind them. In October of 2021, Microsoft had bypassed Apple as the largest company by market cap globally, but Apple soon passed them once again. Microsoft is not the same old company we had known back when Bill Gates was in charge. They have changed and have created a more diverse brand and product portfolio leading that change. Bill Gates stepped down as CEO in 2000 and officially left his full-time role in Microsoft in 2008. Since then, Microsoft has diversified its portfolio to include many more products, including gaming, cloud services, and making Office more business-friendly. Microsoft under Gates was known for two big things: Microsoft Office and Windows; that was the entire portfolio. Satya Nadella, the current CEO of Microsoft, has revolutionized the software company and has made it a software company with a vision of working with businesses, making gaming a priority, and expanding Azure, its cloud network. How Does Microsoft Make Money? A diverse portfolio of many more products allowed Microsoft to branch out from only MS Office and Windows software and adapt to software technology's future. Microsoft has adapted to the world of sales in its subscription-based software model. They sell their Microsoft Office products to businesses and consumers, creating a pay-as-you-go subscription-based business model. Productivity and Business In 2020, Microsoft Office made a significant amount of their revenue from subscription-based software compared to 0% in 2000. MS Office at one point brought close to half of the revenue in 2000, but Office is not even 25% of the revenue that Microsoft takes in now, having over $35 billion in revenue each year. The new software has been revolutionizing businesses. First, they pay for Microsoft Office, and with that, they get Microsoft OneDrive, Teams, and Dynamics. Teams is just a fancy business video chat software like Zoom Video Communications (ZM), but you can only have Teams with Microsoft business accounts. Dynamics is another software that helps with business computing. It helps with business efficiency and works with customer relationship management or CRM, but it is not one of the top competitors to Salesforce (CRM). However, it has over $3 billion in revenue. Windows continues to be one of the most widely used software globally. That domination is starting to penetrate other parts of their customers giving them opportunities to dominate other businesses. With the subscription-based model, they will continue to bring in significant revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Before the proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI), LinkedIn was Microsoft's largest acquisition. It came in at $26 billion in 2016. Today, LinkedIn makes over $8 billion annually in revenue, up from the $3 billion pre-acquisition. LinkedIn has no major competitors and creates most of its money from job offer advertisements, other advertisements, and cash for LinkedIn premium. The Cloud Cloud software has become a bigger space for companies. It has led Microsoft to enter the space and business opportunities through the Azure Cloud system. Microsoft has thus gained a foothold in the cloud space. Azure Cloud system by Microsoft came out in 2009, and in 2021 the platform had become the second-largest cloud-based service in the world behind Amazon Web Services (AWS). With the cloud service, Microsoft's revenue grew by 48% in quarter 3 of 2021. It has reached a 21% market share and continues to gain more traction in the cloud space.   Azure consists of public, private, and hybrid cloud service products that help to power modern businesses. Dynamics and Azure are contributing to over 31% of Microsoft's revenue. In addition, customers are reaping many benefits through the cloud as it enhances the user experience with Microsoft products. The Gaming Industry Microsoft is becoming one of the leaders in the gaming industry. The Xbox is leading the charge with gaming, and Microsoft just made a deal to acquire Activision Blizzard for $69 Billion; if government regulators approve the sale, this acquisition will occur in 2023. The purchase would make Microsoft one of the largest gaming companies in the world. They would then own games like Call of Duty, War of Warcraft, and Candy Crush. In addition, making the deal would put them behind Sony and China's Tencent as a top-three gaming company globally. Microsoft is putting their company in a position to take on the Metaverse. Apple (APPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (FB), and Microsoft are creating technologies for the Metaverse. Satya Nadalla has emphasized that gaming technologies are part of the Metaverse. Is Microsoft a Good Stock to Buy? If we look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, we end up with an overvalued stock compared to Apple and Google. The P/E ratio is 32.0X, making it a bit more overvalued than Apple, which is trading at a valuation of 28.5X, as of this writing. They are close in the P/E ratio, but you would like to see the P/E ratio lower as an investor. Microsoft is a dividend growth stock that has raised the dividend for 19 consecutive years. The most recent quarterly dividend increase was $0.62 per share from $0.56 per share. The forward annual payout is now $2.48 per share with a conservative payout ratio of about 27%. The question is whether the hype of Microsoft is worth a buy as this company continues to create a diverse portfolio moving from one business to another. You can see the company dominating competitive markets like gaming and cloud systems. It has also innovated different types of software to help other businesses. Microsoft's future looks excellent if you are an investor, but the stock is likely overvalued based on the P/E ratio. In addition, the dividend yield is low at 0.84%. This value is less than the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. Suppose individual stocks are too risky for you. In that case, an alternative is to try an excellent ETF or even a tech ETF to gain exposure to Microsoft and other overvalued tech companies. In many cases, ETFs are market cap-weighted, and Microsoft is one of the top holdings. You can always own a piece of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Meta through an excellent ETF like an S&P 500 ETF. Microsoft is also a top 10 holding in some of the best dividend growth ETFs. These index funds will help you own a selection of some of the most profitable and most prominent companies in the US. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Entrepreneur, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.5% (126 out of over 8,212) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits

The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.01.2022 23:01
Many companies regularly distribute a portion of their profits in the form of a dividend to attract investors and incentivize them to remain long-term shareholders. But most companies, ETFs, and commodities don’t pay a dividend at all. When there’s no dividend, the only opportunity for income or a profit comes from a capital gain (or loss) from selling the position.Wouldn’t it be nice to get regular payouts from “no dividend” investments? As a dividend, these payouts could be used for income. Or, if left invested, our cost-basis could be further reduced with every payout.A Commodity ETF ExampleWhile the strategy presented here can work on any stock or ETF that has options, it works best with relatively lower-priced products under about $25. A commodity ETF such as SLV – currently trading around $22 a share -- is an ideal candidate.Like gold, silver has historically been used as a physical store of wealth and a hedge against inflation. But long-term charts on gold and silver show that these products often go sideways for a long time before having a significant move. Historically such investments have required buying, holding, and waiting – sometimes for a very long time.One way to compensate for the lack of a dividend on silver is to purchase shares of SLV and write Call options against those shares.  This is a relatively simple options strategy of writing “Covered Calls”.   Two Ways to Open the TradeWe want to buy low and sell high by purchasing shares on weakness and selling Calls on strength. We can also sell Puts on weakness as an alternative to purchasing shares. The Profit and Loss graph of selling a Put is the same as for selling a Covered Call.If we sell Puts, we’ll likely have shares “Put” to us at some point and will then own the shares at the strike price we sold minus the premiums collected. Having shares put to us at a reduced cost basis is part of the plan. When we sell an Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Put, we’re methodically nudging the statistics in our favor by “buying low” when there is a pull-back in the underlying. We can alternately think of selling a Put as a Limit Order to buy shares with the limit price equal to the strike price we sold.When shares are “Put” to us, we then sell Calls against the shares we now own. And the cost (or basis) of the shares we purchased will have been reduced by the cumulative option premium collected by selling Puts.Trade ManagementWe may not have a great opportunity to sell option premium in every possible cycle. There will likely be times where the underlying will be in a pullback, and we may want to wait for the price to recover before selling Calls. Actual expiration cycle outcomes are likely to be a mix of having Calls expire worthless in some cycles and having shares called away in other cycles.Writing Covered Calls is a relatively low-maintenance strategy that doesn’t have to be watched continuously. Once we write Calls, the shares will either be called away or not. But we do have to be patient and let time decay in the options we sold work for us.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! If the Calls we sold expire worthless, we still own the shares. In this case, we sell Calls again for some future expiration cycle and collect more option premium.If our Calls expire In-the-Money (ITM), the Calls will be exercised, and the shares will be called away. The shares are purchased by our counterparty at the strike price we sold, and we no longer own the shares. As the Call seller, we keep the premium and any gain on the shares. In this case, we start the process again by buying shares or selling Puts.Upside and Downside RisksWriting Covered Calls (and selling Puts) is a neutral to bullish strategy. There can be sustained downtrends, price shocks, and changes in volatility that can affect strategy performance. As with any strategy, it’s important to ask and understand “What could possibly go wrong?” before getting involved.There’s always a tradeoff when selling Covered Calls. In exchange for collecting option premium, profit is limited to the amount of premium collected plus any appreciation in shares up to the strike price. For that reason, I tend to sell Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Calls.Keeping probability in our favor and letting time decay work for us are benefits of selling a Covered Call (or Put). As option sellers, we don’t need large up moves to make a profit. We have the statistical odds in our favor and option time decay working for us. The underlying share price can go up, sideways, or even down a bit, and we can still profit. The “Synthetic Dividend” is one of my favorite ways to generate repeatable profits.What Else Is There To Know About Options Trading?Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!
Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.01.2022 09:05
The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance. At one point on Monday, Bitcoin was down to $33K, but at the late US session, and now trades near $36.4K. Yesterday's drawdown almost closed the gap in July and also came from the lower boundary of the downward channel. The latter indicates that despite the prevalence of bears, the market is not yet ready to accelerate the decline. Bitcoin is gaining 2.8% in 24 hours, but most altcoins are losing ground. So, yesterday's rebound in bitcoin and the positive dynamics of the crypto market are more correctly attributed to technical factors: crypto investors are exiting altcoins to more liquid BTC, forming temporary bounces, but nothing more. The nearest target for BTC downside is $32.3K to close the gap entirely. However, it is worth being prepared to retest the July lows of $29.5-30K. Without support from the stock markets, these levels may not hold for long either. Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.
GME Is Plunging Recently, GameStop Stock Price Is Currently ca. $94

GME Is Plunging Recently, GameStop Stock Price Is Currently ca. $94

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.01.2022 16:27
GameStop stock stages a dead cat bounce on Friday. GME stock closes up nearly 4% on Friday as market freefalls. More losses are likely on Monday as momentum fades and meme is massacred. GameStop (GME) managed to outperform the market significantly on Friday. The meme stock king closed nearly 4% higher at $106.36 despite the main indices closing sharply in the red. However, this was merely a dead cat bounce, and we will outline our reasoning below. GameStop Stock News Nothing too significant behind Friday's outperformance. GameStop (GME) shares had suffered eight consecutive days of losses. Statistically, an up day was becoming more and more likely. GameStop passed a few milestones without much fanfare or reaction from the stock price. Social media traders attempted to play up the one-year anniversary of the GameStop pop, and CEO Ryan Cohen joined in. However, the stock slid. An announcement of a pivot into the NFT space was also met by indifference after a quick surge from the share price. Despite GME spending much of last week near the top of social media mentions, it failed to hook any buyers. The market has little time for risk at present, and speculative meme stocks are getting hit hard so far this year. As we have mentioned, this may be a good thing and avert a full-blown bubble bursting, akin to 2000. The NFT announcement did see a brief pop, but that merely presented a fresh selling opportunity. Year to date, GME is now down nearly 30% and is likely to get worse. The main trading lesson of momentum trading is to get out quickly when momentum stops or stalls. This is not investing or buy-and-hold. This is the realm of quick scalping and risk control. Momentum has collapsed in retail names. Witness falling volumes, falling single share volumes, lower retail sentiment, and drastically lower call option volume: all signs of falling momentum. GameStop Stock Forecast $100 will be broken soon, possibly today or Tuesday. That will lead to some stop-loss triggering as people are herd animals and love round numbers. There will be plenty of stops sitting just below $100. $86 is the target thereafter. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has more room to run before being overbought. Breaking $86 is big. That was the retest following the power surge higher back in February pf last year. Below $86 volume thins out, and there is a volume gap until $50. GameStop (GME) chart, daily
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

Crypto Prices Reviewed - 25.01.2022 - by Korbinian Koller

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.01.2022 11:02
Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Netflix - Fall of the king?

Netflix - Fall of the king?

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 24.01.2022 16:38
Netflix (NFLX.US) had humble beginnings. The company started as a mail-based DVD rental business in 1997 when DVDs were becoming mainstream in the United States. It operated with such a model until 2007 when its business focus switched to media streaming via the Internet. While Netflix continued to rent DVDs, its new services gained traction. A deal with major film production studios was reached in 2010 and in the same year the company started to expand beyond the United States by beginning to offer its services in Canada. Expansion accelerated from there and the company got involved in movie and series production. Netflix is now one of the world's best-known entertainment companies, offering services in more than 190 countries and having more than 220 million paid subscribers at the end of 2021 End of pandemic - end of growth? As Netflix increased its subscriber base, so has the company's sales and earnings soared. Netflix generated just slightly below $30 billion in annual revenue in 2021. The company's business benefited greatly from the coronavirus pandemic, with revenue increasing 24% in 2020 and 18.8% in 2021. Stay-at-home mandates boosted demand for various types of at-home entertainment products, including streaming services. However, as the pandemic started to be contained and countries no longer imposed as strict restrictions as they used to, Netflix growth started to slow. The company expects a big slowdown in new subscriber growth in Q1 2022, citing increased competition as the prime reason. Streaming business gets more difficult While Netflix warned that growing competition within the streaming industry makes the outlook for further growth in subscriber numbers bleak, it should be noted that it is not the only company in the business to have doubts about the future. Disney also said that maintaining high subscriber growth rates became difficult as the market became saturated following the Covid-19 boom. While some customers subscribe to multiple streaming services at once to get access to exclusive content, not everyone can afford that and has to decide which one to use. This is even more important now as high inflation causes consumers to be more cautious with spending. What's next? As costs are increasing and subscriber growth is faltering, streaming companies face a difficult decision on what to do next to preserve growth of their business. Streaming companies could boost spending on new productions in order to enrich their portfolio and attract new customers. However, they can also target existing but not "official" customers and this seems to be the decision Netflix decided to take by increasing crackdown on illegal account sharing. This is a risky play - barring such customers from Netflix' service could encourage them to start paying fees but it can also discourage them from using the company's services all together and switch to competition. Another approach to boosting sales in times of rising costs and slower subscriber growth could be boosting plan prices, which is also what Netflix has decided to do with prices for its services in the United States and Canada increasing in late-2021. Investors now have to decide if these steps can keep the bottom line growing or if they are just desperate moves to maintain the status quo. The stock is down more than 30% this year so many investors may see this as a bargain. But this will only be the case if the company finds a path to strong growth again.
Crude Oil is Rapidly Climbing, the Rest Is Moving Down or Not At All

Crude Oil is Rapidly Climbing, the Rest Is Moving Down or Not At All

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.01.2022 16:05
S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next. Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet. The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen, volume isn‘t yet at capitulation levels – rebound off increasingly oversold levels is approaching. Tech melting down faster than value is to be expected – look for consumer staples to do fine too, not just the sectors mentioned above. As written on Friday, the turn in bleeding in credit markets and tech may stop as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take. Credit Markets HYG paused for a day while quality debt instruments rose – that‘s still risk-off, but symptomatic of the larger battle and buying interest at these levels already. Could presage a respite in stocks during the regular session next. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver indeed paused a little – in spite of the miners weakness, that‘s no reversal. Most likely only a temporary correction within a developing uptrend. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are finally getting tested, and by the look of oil stocks, it‘s not going to be a test reaching too far. Not even volume rose on the day – look for price stabilization followed by another upswing. Copper Copper had actually a hidden bullish day – a good consolidation of prior gains. While the volume isn‘t pointing the clearly bearish way, the amplitude of the move can be repeated next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum Sunday rally fizzled out, and the downswing doesn‘t look to be yet over as another day of panic across the board is ahead. No signs from cryptos that the slide is stopping now. Summary S&P 500 bulls are readying a surprise – the long string of red days is coming to a pause. Credit markets turning a bit risk-on coupled with a tech pause and financials revival (not to mention consumer staples and energy) would be the recipe to turn the tide. We‘re in a large S&P 500 range, and got quite near its lower band at around 4,300. The short rides are to be wound down shortly, and that will coincide with another commodities run higher. Look to precious metals likewise not to disappoint while cryptos continue struggling at the moment. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBPUSD To Visit 1.3440? AUD Recovered, GER 40 Went a Few Steps Up To Slightly Decrease a Moment Later

GBPUSD To Visit 1.3440? AUD Recovered, GER 40 Went a Few Steps Up To Slightly Decrease a Moment Later

John Benjamin John Benjamin 25.01.2022 08:47
GBPUSD remains under pressure The sterling struggles as global markets remain risk-off. A limited rebound has fought to hold above 1.3570 and the sell-off accelerated after a bearish breakout. The pair is testing a previous low at 1.3440 which sits along the 30-day moving average. There could be buying interest in this congestion area after the RSI plunged into the oversold band. 1.3570 is now a fresh resistance, then the bulls will need to lift 1.3660 before they could turn sentiment around. On the other hand, a deeper correction may send the price to 1.3400. AUDUSD in bearish reversal The Australian dollar recovered after the Q4 CPI beat expectations. However, the latest rally took a bearish turn after the price slipped below 0.7170. The lack of commitment to hold onto recent gains suggests a weak risk appetite. A fall below the daily support at 0.7130 further weighs on the Aussie and prompts buyers to bail out. The RSI’s oversold situation helped lift the pair temporarily. Nonetheless, the bears might be eager to sell into strength near 0.7210. 0.7080 would be the next stop as the trend turns south. GER 40 tests critical support The Dax 40 plunges amid rising tensions in Ukraine. The index has given up all gains from the rebound in late December and cut through the major demand zone around 15070. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. Nevertheless, there is no sign of improvement in the market mood. And price action has not stabilized yet. A grind of last October’s low at 14820 would test the bulls’ resolve in the medium-term. On the upside, 15600 is the first hurdle to lift.
Everybody Talks About Stocks, In Fact, There's Much To Watch, As MSFT and Others Release Their Reports

Everybody Talks About Stocks, In Fact, There's Much To Watch, As MSFT and Others Release Their Reports

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 25.01.2022 15:51
  The S&P 500 index was trading 4% lower yesterday before closing 0.3% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just another temporary bottom? The broad stock market index accelerated its sell-off on Monday, as it reached the new local low of 4,222.62. The market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. Investors reacted to further Russia-Ukraine tensions. We are also waiting for series of quarterly earnings releases, tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release and Thursday’s important U.S. Advance GDP release. Overall, we had a big increase in volatility yesterday. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see more short-term volatility. Will it reach yesterday’s low again? Probably not – we’ll likely see a consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,420-4,450, marked by yesterday’s daily high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350. The support level is also at 4,220-4,250. The S&P 500 remains below a steep short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Microsoft Stocks Ahead of the Earnings Release Microsoft (MSFT) will release its quarterly earnings today after the session’s close. It’s an important stock, as it weighs 6.0%, just after the Apple’s 6.7%. So, the S&P 500 traders will be watching that release very closely. Microsoft accelerated its sell-off yesterday and it fell to the local low of $276.05. It was 21% below the Nov. 22 record high of $349.67. The stock remains below the downward trend line, but we can see some clear short-term oversold conditions. Let’s take a look at the Microsoft’s monthly chart. The stock broke below its multi-year hyperbolic run marked by the thick blue curve. The chart is logarithmic, and we can see an enormous rally that took place since 2013. The breakdown may lead to a change in trend or some medium- or long-term consolidation. It looks like a multi-year bull run is over. Futures Contract Got Close to the 4,200 Level Yesterday The S&P 500 futures contract accelerated its downtrend yesterday, as it fell close to the 4,200 level. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far, however there are some downtrend exhaustion signals. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index accelerated its sell-off yesterday and at some point it was 4% lower! But the market rebounded sharply following a “V” pattern reversal and it closed 0.3% higher. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see some further volatility. The coming quarterly earnings releases (MSFT on Tuesday, TSLA on Wednesday and AAPL on Thursday, among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Investors are also waiting for tomorrow’s Fed release and Thursday’s U.S. Advance GPD number release. If you want to be in the loop about any future market changes (with instant mail notifications!) sign up for the newsletter here. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open lower again; we may see a consolidation. Opening a speculative long position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500 Declined, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Isn't Far From November's Levels

S&P 500 Declined, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Isn't Far From November's Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.01.2022 15:55
Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around). VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable. Credit Markets HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium-term. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday. Copper Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline. Summary S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GME Stock Chart - We Might Believe $86 is the Current Support

GME Stock Chart - We Might Believe $86 is the Current Support

FXStreet News FXStreet News 25.01.2022 15:55
GameStop stock crashes but recovers in the afternoon. GameStop shares close nearly 6% lower on Monday. GME shares remain top of WallStreetBets interest list. GameStop (GME) stock likes volatility, and meme traders should certainly be used to it by now, but perhaps not the type that was evident yesterday. GameStop shares crashed below $100 and kept on going before a broad-based afternoon rally helped GME stock recover to close just above the psychological $100 level. GameStop Stock News Again we find ourselves writing about a stock with significant movement based solely on price action. There is little in the way of actual hard news flow. GameStop stock has not had a good start to the year, but despite this it remains one of the top trending stocks across most social media platforms. This has partly to do with loyalty and partly to do with the one-year anniversary of the GameStop saga. However, for the most part traders are fixated on the big picture theme of us versus them that captured the whole argument. GameStop is now down over 30% so far in 2022. GameStop Stock Forecast We remain bearish on this one, which I know many loyal holders may not want to hear. We have to focus on the chart and what we can take from that. Loyalty, if not profitable, is pointless to a trader. Emotion should always be controlled. Breaking $100 was psychological and led to some stops likely triggering. We had identified $86 as strong support for the last few weeks, and GME shares more or less bounced perfectly from it yesterday. GME stock bottomed out at $86.29, so we can take some kudos for that. But now where? Holding $86 was actually pretty important as below is a big volume gap that would likely see an acceleration toward $70. Holding gives some hope of a rebound, but $118.59 remains the short-term pivot for us. Below here bears are in charge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both still following price lower, so there is no sign of any divergence or oversold conditions just yet. GameStop (GME) chart, daily
BTCUSD Chart Don't Show Us Any More Than $36.7k As Fed is About to Meet

BTCUSD Chart Don't Show Us Any More Than $36.7k As Fed is About to Meet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 25.01.2022 15:55
Bitcoin price is not yet ready for an uptrend as bulls cannot keep price above $36,709. Although BTC price posted a bullish candle yesterday, investors are still concerned and cannot look beyond the FED meeting tomorrow. BTC could shed another 10% towards $32,649 before investors go in massively for the long. Bitcoin (BTC) price is still not yet set for a rebound as bears can trip bulls and push the price back below the pivotal level at $36,709. As markets are trying to catch a breather, it does not look like bears will be going away that easily and could pressure BTC price action to the downside. Expect a nervous session to unfold with price swinging back and forth at that pivotal level, but ultimately likely to break to the downside towards $32,649, with a loss of 10% on the day. Bitcoin price is set for a nervous session Bitcoin saw bulls coming in strong once price action slipped briefly below the monthly S2 at $33,742. Bulls bought everything in sight and pushed price action back up above $36,709 but failed to safely position the trade for a further uptick in the coming trading session. As BTC price is already undergoing some profit-taking, it looks as if investors are still awaiting confirmation that the pain trade is over. BTC price will probably trade a nervous session today, as markets will want to wait for the FED meeting later tomorrow and will not want to preposition for the possibility the FED disappoints or delivers an even more hawkish message. Expect choppy price action around $36,709, and possibly another leg lower towards the monthly S2 at $33,742. A test and break below yesterday's low at $32,649 is not an impossibility if Nasdaq sheds multiple percentages points off its value again. BTC/USD daily chart If global sentiment changes and pushes US equities in the green later this afternoon, expect a bullish flood to come into cryptocurrencies. That would see BTC price testing $39,780 to the upside with the monthly S1 support as resistance from any upside. If the rally is large and broad, expect even $44,088 to be on the cards, and for that to erase a large part of the downturn since the beginning of this year.
Will FOMC Moves Let Us Prepare Kind of Gold Price Prediction?

Will FOMC Moves Let Us Prepare Kind of Gold Price Prediction?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 25.01.2022 16:28
  The World Gold Council believes that gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year. Well, I’m not so sure about it. Have you ever had the feeling that all of this has already happened and you are in a time loop, repeating Groundhog Day? I have. For instance, I’m pretty sure that I have already written the Fundamental Gold Report with a reference to pop-culture before… Anyway, I’m asking you this, because the World Gold Council warns us against the whole groundhog year for the gold market. In its “Gold Outlook 2022,” the gold industry organization writes that “gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year.” The reason is that in 2021, gold was under the influence of two competing forces. These factors were the increasing interest rates and rising inflation, especially strong in operation in the second half of the year, which resulted in the sideways trend in the gold market, as the chart below shows. The WGC sees a similar tug of war in 2022: the hikes in the federal funds rate could create downward pressure for gold, but at the same time, elevated inflation will likely create a tailwind for gold. The WGC acknowledges that the ongoing tightening of monetary policy can be an important headwind for gold. However, it notes two important caveats. First, the Fed has a clear dovish bias and often overpromises when it comes to hawkish actions. For example, in the previous tightening cycle, “the Fed has tended not to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as members of the committee had initially expected.” Second, financial market expectations are more important for gold prices than actual events. As a result, “gold has historically underperformed in the months leading up to a Fed tightening cycle, only to significantly outperform in the months following the first rate hike.” I totally agree. I emphasized many times the Fed’s dovish bias and that the actual interest rate hikes could be actually better for gold than their prospects. After all, gold bottomed out in December 2015, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession. I also concur with the WGC that inflation may linger this year. Expectations that inflation will quickly dissipate are clearly too optimistic. As China is trying right now to contain the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, supply chain disruptions may worsen, contributing to elevated inflation. However, although I expect inflation to remain high, I believe that it will cool down in 2022. If so, the real interest rates are likely to increase, creating a downward pressure on gold prices. I also believe that the WGC is too optimistic when it comes to the real interest rates and their impact on the yellow metal. According to the report, despite the rate hikes, the real interest rates will stay low from a historical perspective, supporting gold prices. Although true, investors should remember that changes in economic variables are usually more important than their levels. Hence, the rebound in interest rates may still be harmful for the precious metals.   Implications for Gold What should be expected for gold in 2022? Will this year be similar to 2021? Well, just like last year, gold will find itself caught between a hawkish Fed and high inflation. Hence, some similarities are possible. However, in reality, we are not in a time loop and don’t have to report on Groundhog Day (phew, what a relief!). The arrow of time continues its inexorable movement into the future. Thus, market conditions evolve and history never repeats itself, but only rhymes. Thus, I bet that 2022 will be different than 2021 for gold, and we will see more volatility this year. In our particular situation, the mere expectations of a more hawkish Fed are evolving into actual actions. This is good news for the gold market, although the likely peak in inflation and normalization of real interest rates could be an important headwind for gold this year. Tomorrow, we will get to know the FOMC’s first decision on monetary policy this year, which could shake the gold market but also provide more clues for the future. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
EURUSD, EURCHF and US 30 Chart Don't Show Spectacular Fluctations

EURUSD, EURCHF and US 30 Chart Don't Show Spectacular Fluctations

John Benjamin John Benjamin 26.01.2022 08:44
EURUSD grinds daily support The US dollar inches lower as traders take profit ahead of the Fed meeting. The euro’s struggle to stay above 1.1360 indicates buyers’ weak interest in holding onto previous gains. The latest rebounds have failed to clear the former support that has turned into a resistance. A break below the previous consolidation range and daily support (1.1280) could send the pair to 1.1235. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted some buying interest. But the bulls will need to lift 1.1360 first before a reversal could become a reality. EURCHF attempts reversal The safe-haven Swiss franc retreats as global panic selling takes a breather. A bullish RSI divergence shows a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. Then a rally above 1.0355 has prompted some sellers to cover, taking the heat off the single currency. A bullish MA cross is an encouraging sign for a reversal. 1.0400 is the next hurdle and its breach could be a turning point for traders’ sentiment and a launchpad towards 1.0480. On the downside, 1.0340 is fresh support and then 1.0300 a critical floor to safeguard the rebound. US 30 hits last major support The Dow Jones 30 recoups losses as traders await details on the Fed’s monetary tightening. Breaks below daily supports at 34700 and 34000 have forced buyers to liquidate in bulk. The index saw bids at last June’s low (33200) while the RSI sank into the oversold area on the daily chart. As the quote stabilizes, traders may be looking to buy the dips. A close above 34500 may lead to 35500 which is a key supply zone from a previous breakout. A break below the daily support could trigger a broader correction in the weeks to come.
Polkadot (DOT) Explained - A Pinch Of Origins And History

Polkadot Price +2.3%, LUNA Price -7.4%, ETH Price 1.1% and BTC -0.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.01.2022 09:33
Bitcoin decreased 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $36,600 while Ethereum lost 1.1%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a 7.4% decline of Terra to a 2.3% rise of Polkadot. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank 1.1% to $1.74 trillion over the past day. In total, the crypto market broke the recent days' decline after bitcoin hit lows of the last six months on Monday, dropping below $33,000. This was followed by a sharp rebound upwards to $37,500. The US market was the reason. Throughout January, stocks are falling in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. The decline in risky assets also had a negative impact on bitcoin, which has already lost about 20% since the beginning of the month. A correlation between the benchmark cryptocurrency and Nasdaq has reached a new all-time high, according to Bloomberg. On Wednesday, all the attention will be riveted to the FOMC meeting. If the regulator tightens its rhetoric and announces the upcoming rate hike as early as March, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, could suffer significantly. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged El Salvador to move away from bitcoin as a legal currency. MicroStrategy has stated that it would continue to buy BTC despite its decline in recent months. Its worth noting that a week ago, crypto funds recorded the first inflow of funds into their assets in the last six weeks.
Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 26.01.2022 12:20
Today’s highly anticipated FED decision could have wide ranging implications across markets as it could alter the current state of economic policy and ultimately favour some markets over others. While there are several scenarios of what’s expected today from the US central bank, the most likely one seems to be a rate increase in March while maintaining QE for the time being , which many investors could see as a slight step back compared to the tone used by the FED recently. On the other hand, if the FOMC decides to surprise investors with a more hawkish than expected approach, it could lead to significant reactions across stock markets and cryptocurrencies even after the recent corrections we have already seen so far. The FED must be very cautious today as it appears to be stuck in a challenging situation, unable to ignore record inflation levels while also having a market that relies heavily on its fiscal policy and any misstep could have greater than expected consequences. Cryptocurrencies attempt to recover ahead of FOMC decision Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have seen the majority of the volatility and pullbacks from recent uncertainty noticed across a wide range of markets to different extents. However, due to their exceedingly volatile nature, cryptocurrency prices moved significantly with the total market cap falling around $1 Trillion as the majority of top 100 tokens dropped around 20% reaching the lowest level in several months and shaking investor confidence in the sector. On the other hand, we are seeing an attempt to recover today with most tokens trading slightly higher ahead of the FOMC decision as some investors expect the US central bank to back off after seeing the massive reaction it’s recent announcements have had. While it remains to be seen whether the FED will go through with its plan, it is clear that a significant increase in volatility has the potential to scare many investors who may not be interested in projects for the long term and are mainly attempting to speculate on their prices for short term gains. Investors await Tesla earnings report While many investors will be focusing on the FED’s key decision today, earning season has also been a main topic of discussion with several major companies already publishing their reports. We have seen a variety of contrasting results with some exceeding expectations while others disappointed and ultimately reflected that in a significant share price drop. Tesla will be publishing it’s results today and investors will be looking closely to ascertain if the company is living up to the forecasts or if it also appears to be struggling with rising inflation and supply chain issues. A better than expected result could renew investor confidence in the company that has been able to impress many since being listed on the S&P 500 not long ago, while a disappointment could impact future prospects in addition to share price in the short term.  
Apple Stock Price and Forecast: AAPL earnings preview

Apple Stock Price and Forecast: AAPL earnings preview

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.01.2022 16:22
Apple reports earnings after the close on Thursday.With the Fed out of the way, the road is cleared for the stock superpower.AAPL could help turn the entire market sentiment after Microsoft beat. Apple is due to report earnings after the close on Thursday. With the Fed meeting ending today, investors will then focus on the tech sector to hopefully end the bearish mood currently hitting markets. Tech names along with a not-too-surprising Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) could turn things around. Sentiment is beginning to look overdone, but it is imperative to get solid earnings from the tech sector. So far the bank sector has disappointed, while the energy sector looks like it should outperform. This week as we mentioned in our preview note is key with 104 of the S&P 500 companies reporting. Apple Stock NewsApple reports after the close on Thursday, January 27. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at $1.89 on revenue of $118.28 billion. Wall Street analysts also expect Apple to have sold 80 million iPhones in the last quarter. Bank of America certainly is looking to the upside as it outlines in a note out this morning. The bank sees iPhone sales coming in at 81 million and sees a strong revenue number of $121 million, well ahead of forecasts. Analysts have been active this week on the name ahead of earnings. Earlier we reported on Goldman Sachs maintaining their $142 price target ahead of earnings, while Morgan Stanley expects strong iPhone deliveries to maintain bullish earnings.As ever the commentary around earnings will be as important as the earnings themselves. Last time out the dreaded supply chain and chip issues came to light, so we will look for more clarity around these areas.Apple Stock Forecast$157 is big, very big. A break and it likely heads to $148, which is a huge volume profile support and the point of control. But breaking $157 does put in a new lower low and so continue the downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both look quite stretched, but the RSI is not yet oversold. The MACD, meanwhile, is at its lowest since March of last year, and the histogram is also at its widest in a year. Earnings then could be the catalyst to turn this trend around. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily
Rushing Headlong

Rushing Headlong

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2022 16:34
Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is what a tradable S&P 500 bottom looks like – just as it was most likely to turn out. After the 200-day moving average, 4,500 point of control is the next target.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – this is how a budding reversal looks like, especially since the selling hasn‘t picked up ahead of the Fed. Turning already.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver pause was barely noticeable – it‘s a great sight of upcoming strength in the metals while miners unfortunately would continue underperforming to a degree, i.e. not leading decisively.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are back, how did you like the pause? The ride higher isn‘t over by a long shot, and I like the volume of late being this much aligned.CopperCopper looks to be catching breath before another (modest but still) upswing. The buyers aren‘t yet rushing headlong.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum reversed, and are participating in the risk-on upturn, with Ethereum sending out quite nice short-term signs. From the overall portfolio view and upcoming volatility though, I would prefer to wait before making any move here.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood yesterday‘s test, and are well positioned to extend gains, especially on the upcoming well received FOMC statement and soothing press conference. It had also turned out that a tech upswing is more likely to be continued today than yesterday – the Fed‘s words would calm down bonds, and that would enable a better Nasdaq upswing.As I wrote yesterday, the table is set for an upside FOMC surprise – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals – and I would add today once again in a while that real assets upswing would coincide with the dollar moving lower later today (check those upper knots of late). So far so good in risk-on, inflation trades – and things will get even better as my regular readers know (I can‘t underline how much you can benefit from regularly reading the full analyses as these are about how I arrive at the profitable conclusions presented & how you can twist them to your own purposes).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Binance Coin price bound for 15% upswing as bulls make a comeback

Binance Coin price bound for 15% upswing as bulls make a comeback

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.01.2022 16:40
Binance Coin has been range trading for the past four days between $335 and $389. BNB price shows bulls pushing bears against the high of this week, ready for a breakout. Expect bears to be stopped out and open momentum for bulls to run the price up to $452. Binance Coin (BNB) price was able to find a floor at $335 with the monthly S2 monthly support level as an area where bulls were interested in getting involved in the price action. BNB price is now quickly ramping up and squeezing bears out of their entries at $389, which is acting as the weekly high. With the squeeze, a pop is set to unfold towards $452, the first significant level of resistance that could halt the rally near-term. BNB price set for a bullish breakout Binance Coin sees bulls trading away from the monthly S2 support level at $335 tested twice and bulls jumping on the buying volume to get involved in the price action. Backed by the green ascending trendline, a bullish entry makes sense as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just exited oversold territory. As such, sellers do not have much incentive to stay further in their short positions as further gains look limited for now. BNB price thus offers a solid entry point, and bulls are now ready to break above $389, the weekly high and short-term cap that has kept BNB price limited to the upside this week. As bears are being pushed against that level, expect their stops to be run once bulls break above it, which will trigger a massive demand for buying volume and squeeze price action even higher. The monthly S1 does not hold much historical reference, so $452 makes the most sense with the 200-day Simple Moving Average just above as a cap, that needs to be broken to start speaking of an uptrend. BNB/USD daily chart In the wake of the Fed meeting later today, most investors will be holding their breath further into the afternoon. If the Fed delivers a hawkish tone or even hike today, that will set a negative tone for global markets and see a sharp decline in risk assets led by equities and cryptocurrencies. Expect BNB price action to result in bulls being pushed against the monthly S2 support and the green ascending trend line around $320-$335.
Financial Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities

Financial Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 26.01.2022 23:16
Recent volatility in the US markets ahead of the Fed comments/actions have prompted a relatively big pullback in almost every sector. Many traders are concerned the Fed may take immediate action to raise rates. Yet, a small portion of traders believes the Fed may be trapped in a position to act more conservatively in addressing inflation going forward. I think the Fed will continue to talk firmly about potentially raising rates. The Fed is more interested in decreasing the assets on their balance sheet before they risk doing anything to disrupt support for the global markets.Suppose my analysis of the Fed predicament is correct. In that case, the recent collapse of the US markets represents a fear-based emotional selloff of many sectors that may still represent a strong opportunity for a recovery rally in 2022. One of those sectors is the Financial sector – particularly XLF.I wrote about this on January 7, 2022, in this article: FINANCIAL SECTOR STARTS TO RALLY TOWARDS THE $43.60 UPSIDE TARGETI also wrote how the US Fed might be playing with fire regarding their stern positioning and statements recently in this article on January 14, 2022: US FEDERAL RESERVE - PLAYING WITH FIRE PART 2Critical Components Of Recent Inflationary TrendsIf you attempt to follow my logic as I read into the Fed's intentions. There are three critical components to navigating the rise of inflationary trends recently.The COVID-19 virus event created several disparities in the global markets. First, the disruption to the labor and supply-side markets began an almost immediate inflationary aspect for the global economy. Secondly, the US's stimulus and easy money policies have stimulated demand for products, technology, houses, autos, and other real assets. These two factors combined have increased inflationary pressures on the global markets.Rising consumer demand for real and virtual assets such as Cryptos, NFTs, and others has pushed the speculative investing cycle into a hyper-active rally phase. This was clearly witnessed in early 2021, with the Reddit/Meme rallies became the hottest trades, then quickly dissipated after July 2021. This speculative rally has pushed the post-COVID rally well beyond reasonable expectations over the past 16+ months.Excessive debt levels push a deflationary process to the forefront. Consumers are now starting to pull away from the excesses of the past 16+ months. The Fed's tough talk and recent deeper declines in various sectors over the past 12+ months show that inflationary trends are subsiding. Despite the supply-side issues being resolved, consumers continue to pull away from hyper-speculative activities. The markets will naturally revalue to support more realistic price levels, deflating excessive P/E ratios and recent extreme price peaks in assets.Possible Next Steps for the US FedMy interpretation of the global markets is that excess speculative trending and rising commodity prices, combined with excess debt levels and consumers who have suddenly become very aware of global market risks, are already acting as a deflationary process. Because of these underlying factors, which I believe are currently in play throughout the globe, the US Federal Reserve may be forced to wait things out a bit. The Fed may have to navigate these natural deflationary processes while attempting to provide monetary support for what I believe will be a downside/deflationary trend over the next 3+ years.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The US Federal Reserve may not have to take any aggressive action right now. Instead, it may decide to watch how the global markets contract as consumers pull away from inflated price levels and higher risks and attempt to navigate these natural deflationary price trends. If the Fed were to act aggressively right now and raise rates, they could push the global markets into a steeper collapse. This process would likely burst numerous asset bubbles very quickly and push many foreign nations into some type of debt default.This presents a new problem for the US Fed – going from inflationary concerns to global economic collapse concerns very quickly. So when I suggested the Fed is playing with fire – maybe I should have said “playing with the nuclear economic football”?Financial Sector ResilienceStill, I believe the US Financial sector is showing tremendous resilience near $37.50. I think it has a powerful opportunity to rally back above $42 to $44 if the Fed takes a more measured approach to let the global markets deflate a bit before taking any aggressive actions.The US Financial sector will likely continue to benefit from price volatility and consumer demand as these deflationary trends prompt consumers to engage in more normal economic activities. The Financial sector also has continued to stay under moderate pricing pressure since the 2008 highs. XLF is only 25.46% higher than the 2008 highs, whereas the NASDAQ is more than 575% above the 2008 market highs.The Financial Sector may be one of the strongest market sectors over the next few years. Deflationary trends push consumers and global markets away from excess debt levels and towards more traditional economic activities/trends.Want To Learn More About Financial Sector ETFs?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Gains Bullish Momentum

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Gains Bullish Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 27.01.2022 08:26
USDCAD breaks higherThe Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.NZDUSD continues lowerThe New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.XAUUSD pulls back for supportGold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.
Gold Plunged but Didn’t Knuckle Under to the Hawkish Fed

Gold Plunged but Didn’t Knuckle Under to the Hawkish Fed

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 27.01.2022 14:17
The FOMC set the stage for a March interest rate hike, which was an aggressive signal. Gold got it and fell – but hasn't capitulated yet.The Battlecruiser Hawk is moving full steam ahead! The FOMC issued yesterday (January 26, 2022) its newest statement on monetary policy in which it strengthened its hawkish stance. First of all, the Fed admitted that it would start hiking interest rates “soon”:With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.Previously, the US central bank conditioned its tightening cycle on the situation in the labor market. The relevant part of the statement was as follows in December:With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment.The alteration implies that, in the Fed’s view, the US economy has reached maximum employment and is ready to lift the federal funds rate. Indeed, Powell reaffirmed it, saying:There’s quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market. This is by so many measures a historically tight labor market — record levels of job openings, quits, wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades.Powell also clarified the timing, stating that “the Committee is of the mind to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting.” This is not completely unexpected, but does mark a significant hawkish change in the Fed’s communication, which is negative for gold.Second, the FOMC reaffirmed its plan, announced in December, to end quantitative easing in early March. It means that in February, the Fed will buy only $20 billion of Treasuries and $10 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, instead of the $40 and $20 purchased in January:The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month.Third, the FOMC is preparing for quantitative tightening. Together with the statement on monetary policy, it published “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”. The Fed hasn’t yet determined the timing and pace of reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet. However, we know that it will happen after the first hike in interest rates, so probably as soon as May or June. After all, as Powell admitted during his press conference, “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be (...). There’s a substantial amount of shrinkage in the balance sheet to be done.”Implications for GoldWhat does the recent FOMC statement imply for the gold market? The end of QE, the start of the hiking cycle, and then of QT – all packed within just a few months – is a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls. The Fed hasn’t been so aggressive for years.Of course, maybe it’s just a great bluff, and the Fed will retreat to its traditional dovish stance soon when tightening monetary and financial conditions hit Wall Street and the real economy. However, with CPI inflation above 7%, mounting political pressure, and public outrage at costs of living, the US central bank has no choice but to tighten monetary policy, at least for the time being.It seems that gold got the message. The price of the yellow metal plunged more than $30 yesterday, as the chart below shows. Interestingly, gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness. What is also disturbing is that gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.On the other hand, gold didn’t collapse, but it dropped only by thirty-some dollars, or about 1.6%. Given the importance and hawkishness of the FOMC meeting, it could have been worse. Yes, the hawkish message was expected, and some analysts even forecasted more aggressive actions, but gold clearly didn’t capitulate. Thus, there is hope (and turbulence in the stock market can also help here), although the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
One More Time

One More Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.01.2022 15:53
Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation – as the Fed just stood pat, open oil profits are rising.But stocks took a dive before recovering, carving out a fourth in a row lower knot – the bulls are invited to participate, and open stock market profits are moving up again. Also note the divergence between HYG trading at its recent lows while S&P 500 clearly isn‘t. The immediate pressure would be to go higher, and that concerns also copper, and to a smaller degree cryptos. All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity.That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSetback and reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is though still carving out a tradable bottom. I‘m looking for the index to return above 4,400 and then take on the 4,500 point of control next.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, the panic is there – higher yields across the board without a clear risk-on turn holding. Today is a time for reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge. The metals are anticipating the upcoming liquidity squeeze, which won‘t be pretty until the Fed changes course. Not that it truly started, for that matter.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have confirmed they were back, and are ready for more – clearly not daunted by the Fed messaging, and that has implications for inflation ahead. It would really be more persistent than generally appreciated, I‘m telling you.CopperCopper is still in the catching breath phase – not yielding, and that‘s still saying something about inflation and real economy.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are on guard, and ready to move somewhat higher next – for now, lacking conviction, there is no Ethereum outperformance either.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to come back, and prove that the first FOMC move, is the fake one – no, I don‘t mean the moonshot to 4,450 in the first moments. That would be the move I‘m looking for still, and it would be led by the coming tech upswing. Check the commodities resilience to the rising rates prospects – gold and silver need a reprieve in bonds badly to catch breath again, and it would come at the expense of the dollar. For now, markets are afraid of the looming liquidity crunch and Fed policy mistake as the yield curve continues compressing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US GDP Analysis: America is stocking up, how that boosts the Dollar and equities in tandem

US GDP Analysis: America is stocking up, how that boosts the Dollar and equities in tandem

FXStreet News FXStreet News 27.01.2022 15:59
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 6.9% in the last quarter, beating estimates. Inflation eroded another 7% of growth, indicating the Fed's hawkish stance and boosting the dollar. Fast growth in inventories is a sign of easing supply-chain issues, supporting stocks.Finally, some straightforward responses – the dollar and US stocks rise together in response to strong US data. Good news for the economy is also positive for traders, who now have an easier path to trade. The safe-haven dollar trade is gone, or at least suspended.Gross Domestic Product figures help shape this new correlation, but it builds on top of the Federal Reserve's decision. Starting from the data release, Washington reported an annualized growth rate of 6.9%, far above 5.5% expected, and an encouraging figure in absolute terms. That came despite higher inflation, 7% annualized in the fourth quarter. In nominal terms, the economy expanded at a whopping rate of 14.3%, or 10% for the entire year – far above 5.7% in real terms. Fast growth and strong inflation justify the Fed's decision to tighten its policy, kicking off with a rate hike in March – one of many. It also vindicates the words from Chair Jerome Powell, who said that the labor market can handle higher borrowing costs. The strong economic figures point to employment growth.While tighter policy supports the dollar, shouldn't stocks suffer? Apart from the easy explanation – economic growth means higher company profits – one detail in the report also provides hope. Inventories added no fewer than 4.9 percentage points to GDP growth. What does inventory data mean? In normal times, when companies replenish inventories during one quarter, they tend to deplete them in the next one. However, these are times when supply-chain issues dog the US and global economies. This leap in inventories is a sign that supplies are moving along. When there is merchandise in storage, it is easier to fulfill consumer demand. Moreover, it should help ease inflationary pressures as well. That is a win for stocks.At the moment, price increases remain rapid and the labor market is tight – meaning higher rates and a stronger dollar. This tandem increase in the dollar and stocks is set to continue, assuming no geopolitical shock.
Gold Is Bruised but Can Show Strength – By Doing Nothing

Gold Is Bruised but Can Show Strength – By Doing Nothing

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 27.01.2022 17:59
  The Fed finally said it: the rates are going up. The USD Index and gold heard it and reacted. The former is at new yearly highs, while gold slides. The medium-term outlook for gold is now extremely bearish. The above might sound like a gloom and doom scenario for precious metals investors, but I view it as particularly favorable. Why? Because: This situation allows us to profit on the upcoming decline in the precious metals sector through trading capital. This situation allows us to detect a great buying entry point in the future. When gold has everything against it and then it manages to remain strong – it will be exactly the moment to buy it. To be more precise: to buy into the precious metals sector (I plan to focus on purchasing mining stocks first as they tend to be strongest during initial parts of major rallies). At that moment PMs will be strong and the situation will be so bad that it can only improve from there – thus contributing to higher PM prices in the following months. Most market participants have not realized the above. “Gold and (especially) silver can only go higher!” is still a common narrative on various forums. Having said that, let’s take a look at the short-term charts. In short, gold declined significantly, and it’s now trading once again below the rising support / resistance line, the declining red resistance line, and back below 2021 closing price (taking also today’s pre-market decline into account). In other words: All important short-term breakouts were just invalidated. The 2022 is once again a down year for gold. Is this as bearish as it gets for gold? Well, there could be some extra bearish things that could happen, but it’s already very, very bearish right now. For example, gold market could catch-up with its reactions to USD Index’s strength. The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. Gold has been consolidating for many months now, just like it’s been the case between 2011 and 2013. The upper part of the above chart features the width of the Bollinger Bands – I didn’t mark them on the chart to keep it clear, but the important detail is that whenever their width gets very low, it means that the volatility has been very low in the previous months, and that it’s about to change. I marked those cases with vertical dashed lines when the big declines in the indicator took it to or close to the horizontal, red, dashed line. In particular, the 2011-2013 decline is similar to the current situation. What does it mean? It means that gold wasn’t really showing strength – it was stuck. Just like 2012 wasn’t a pause before a bigger rally, the 2021 performance of gold shouldn’t be viewed as such. What happened yesterday showed that gold can and will likely react to hawkish comments from the Fed, that the USD Index is likely to rally and so are the interest rates. The outlook for gold in the medium term is not bullish, but very bearish. The above is a positive for practically everyone interested in the precious metals market (except for those who sell at the bottom that is), as it will allow one to add to their positions (or start building them) at much lower prices. And some will likely (I can’t guarantee any performance, of course) gain small (or not so small) fortunes by being positioned to take advantage of the upcoming slide. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USD To JPY Chart - What an Upswing! SPX Doesn't Go Really High

USD To JPY Chart - What an Upswing! SPX Doesn't Go Really High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.01.2022 08:39
USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.
NASDAQ, Non-Farm Payrolls, GBPAUD, Gold and More in The Next Episode of "The Trade Off"

Stock Market in 2022: Momentum on the Stocks in the Market Are In a Solid Footing

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.01.2022 10:51
The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.
Many Factors to Affect XAU This Year. What About The Past?

Many Factors to Affect XAU This Year. What About The Past?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 28.01.2022 10:38
  Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country. Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year. Indeed, based on very simple monetarist reasoning, I expect the peak to be somewhere in the first quarter of 2022. This is because the lag between the acceleration in money supply growth (March 2020) and CPI growth (March 2021) was a year. The peak in the former occurred in February 2021, as the chart below shows. You can do the math (by the way, this is the exercise that turned out to be too difficult for Jerome Powell and his “smart” colleagues from the Fed). This is – as I’ve said – very uncomplicated thinking that assumes the stability of the lag between monetary impulses and price reactions. However, given the Fed’s passive reaction to inflation and the fact that the pace of money supply growth didn’t return to the pre-pandemic level, but stayed at twice as high, the peak in inflation may occur later. In other words, more persistent inflation is the major risk for the economy that many economists still downplay. The consensus expectation is that inflation returns to a level close to the Fed’s target by the end of the year. For 2021, the forecasts were similar. Instead, inflation has risen to about 7%. Thus, never underestimate the power of the inflation dragon, especially if the beast is left unchecked! As everyone knows, dragons love gold – and this feeling is mutual. The Saxo Bank, in its annual “Outrageous Predictions”, sees the potential for US consumer prices to rise 15% in 2022, as “companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970’s”. Actually, given the fact that millions of Americans left the labor market – which the Fed doesn’t understand and still expects that they will come back – this prediction is not as extreme as one could expect. I still hope that inflationary pressure will moderate this year, but I’m afraid that the fall may not be substantial. On the other hand, we have the Fed with its hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing. The US central bank is expected to start a tightening cycle, hiking the federal funds rate at least twice this year. It doesn’t sound good for gold, does it? A hawkish Fed implies a stronger greenback and rising real interest rates, which is negative for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession, with the infamous “taper tantrum”, was very supportive of the US dollar but lethal for gold. However, the price of gold bottomed in December 2015, exactly when the Fed hiked the interest rates for the first time after the global financial crisis. Markets are always future-oriented, so they often react more to expected rather than actual events. Another thing is that the Fed’s tightening cycle of 2015-2018 was dovish and the federal funds rate (and the Fed’s balance sheet) never returned to pre-crisis levels. The same applies to the current situation: despite all the hawkish reactions, the Fed is terribly behind the curve. Last but not least, history teaches us that a tightening Fed spells trouble for markets. As a reminder, the last tightening cycle led to the reversal of the yield curve in 2019 and the repo crisis, which forced the US central bank to cut interest rates, even before anyone has heard of covid-19. Hence, the Fed is in a very difficult situation. It either stays behind the curve, which risks letting inflation get out of control, or tightens its monetary policy in a decisive manner, just like Paul Volcker did in the 1980s, which risks a correction of already-elevated asset prices and the next economic crisis. Such expectations have boosted gold prices since December 2015, and they could support the yellow metal today as well. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Why did TSLA fall despite beating earnings estimates?

Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Why did TSLA fall despite beating earnings estimates?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 27.01.2022 15:59
Tesla stock swung around violently post the earnings release. TSLA shares quickly dropped 6% despite beating earnings estimates. Tesla then recovered to trade down 2% as buyers stepped in. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly in the after-hours market on Wednesday following its earnings release. The stock dropped 6% fairly rapidly despite beating on the top and bottom lines. Buyers then went bargain hunting as the market struggled to grasp what metric to focus on. By the time things settled down, we were nearly back to where things started. At the time of writing, Tesla is back to $930 in the premarket on Thursday, so only $7 or less than 1% lower from where Tesla stock was trading at the close of the regular session and before the earnings drop. Tesla Stock News Tesla beat on earnings per share (EPS), coming in at $2.54 versus the $2.26 average estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts, coming in at $17.72 billion versus the $16.35 billion estimate. This was a pretty strong performance beat on both top and bottom lines. Margins also held up well, coming in at 30.8% versus estimates for 30%. So far so good. However, Tesla then mentioned that its factories were not at full capacity and it saw this continuing into 2022. Supply chain issues were to blame, and investors took a dim view of this and sold the stock sharply lower. However, buyers then stepped in as arguments over demand versus supply issues surfaced. The demand profile remains strong and Tesla stuck to its strong outlook for demand going forward. If it can address supply issues and with new factories in Texas and Berlin coming on line, it may be in a position to drive more supply to meet demand. It is certainly better to have a problem meeting demand than it is to have a lack of demand. This is a case of "if you build it, they will come" for Tesla going forward. Tesla Stock Forecast TSLA bottomed out at $879 after the release, but in reality it spent very little time down there. This is interesting to us on a technical view as it prints a higher low than Monday's sell-off and puts in place the potential for a bottoming formation. From the 4-hour chart below we can see this price action in play. The lows from Monday at $855 are our short-term pivot. Above there things have a chance to turn bullish in a more medium-term view. Below and it is on to $813 to test the 200-day moving average. Tesla chart, 4 hourly
Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Market Expectations

Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Market Expectations

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.01.2022 14:59
The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.Foreign Markets Struggle For Support Before US Fed Monetary TighteningIn a continuing downward slide, global market equity indexes continue to move lower after the US Fed comments this week. In this article, I wrote about this dynamic on August 3, 2021: US Markets Stall Near End Of July As Global Markets Retreat - Are We Ready For An August Surprise? At that time, I suggested the US markets were stalling while the global markets continued to decline.Now, nearly five months later, we've seen the US market trend moderately higher, attempting to struggle to new highs and exhibit deep downward price trends, while the global markets have continued to trend lower. As we move closer to the US Fed pushing interest rates higher, I expect these trends to become even more volatile and pronounced.US Equities May Find Support After The Fed Raises RatesThe current dynamic in the global markets is that capital is seeking investments where safety and profitable returns dominate over risks. As the global markets transition ahead of the Fed rate increases, I believe the US markets will continue to dominate global assets in opportunities, safety, and returns. Once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, a brief period of volatility throughout the global markets may occur. Still, that volatility should quickly settle as traders chase a stronger US Dollar, US Dollar-based Dividends, and a potential “melt-up” of the US Equity market (particularly the Dow Jones, S&P500, and possibly the Russell 2000).Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Unless the US Fed takes very aggressive action in raising rates too quickly, I believe, at least initially, the US equity markets will continue to benefit from perceived strengths compared to many global equities/indexes.This means there will be many opportunities for traders and investors in 2022 and 2023 – we have to be patient in waiting for the chance to profit from these big trends. Jumping ahead of this volatility could be dangerous if you are on the wrong side of the price trend. Instead, wait for the right opportunities while you protect your capital from extreme risks. Let the markets tell you when opportunities are perfect – don't try to force a trade to happen.On December 28, 2021, I published this research article showing how my Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system expects price to trend in 2022 and early 2023: Predictive Modeling Suggests 710 Rally In SPY And QQQ Before April 2022. I strongly suggest taking a look at the recent downside price trends in relation to the lower range of the ADL Predictive Modeling expectations. If my ADL Predictive Modeling system is accurate, we may see a relatively strong recovery in the US stock market throughout the rest of 2022 and beyond.Strategies To Help You Protect And Grow Your WealthLearn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
As Fed Is Acting, Is The DXY The Most Interesting Chart For Now?

As Fed Is Acting, Is The DXY The Most Interesting Chart For Now?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 28.01.2022 15:42
  Despite death wishes from the doubters, the dollar took to the skies on the Fed’s hawkish wings. Gold and silver can wave from the ground for now. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell threw fuel on the fire on Jan. 26, it’s no surprise that the USD Index has rallied to new highs. For example, while dollar bears feasted on false narratives in 2021, I was a lonely bull forecasting higher index values. Likewise, after more doubts emerged in 2022, the death of the dollar narrative resurfaced once again. However, with the charts signaling a bullish outcome for some time, my initial target of 94.5 was surpassed and my next target of 98 is near. As such, it’s crucial to avoid speculation and wait for confirmation of breakdowns and breakouts. In its absence, the price action often pulls you in the wrong direction. Remember the supposedly bearish move below 95 when the USD Index moved even below its rising support line? It’s been just 2 weeks since that development. On Jan. 14, I wrote the following: In conclusion, 2022 looks a lot like 2021: dollar bears are out in full force and the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has resurfaced once again. However, with the greenback’s 2021 ascent catching many investors by surprise, another re-enactment will likely materialize in 2022. Moreover, since gold, silver, and mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, their 2022 performances may surprise for all of the wrong reasons. As such, while the dollar’s despondence is bullish for the precious metals, a reversal of fortunes will likely occur over the medium term. Given yesterday’s reversal in the USD Index, it’s likely also from the short-term point of view – we could see the reversal and the return of the USD’s rally and PMs’ decline any day or hour now. Fortunately, if you’ve been following my analyses, the recent price moves didn’t catch you by surprise. What’s next? While the USD Index still needs to confirm the recent breakout and some consolidation may ensue, the bullish medium-term thesis remains intact. More importantly, though, the USD Index’s gain has resulted in gold, silver, and mining stocks’ pain. For example, the dollar’s surge helped push gold below its short-and-medium-term rising support lines (the upward sloping red lines on the bottom half of the above chart). However, since the USD Index hit a new high and gold didn’t hit a new low, is the development bullish for the yellow metal? To answer, I wrote on Jan. 27: The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. The Eye in the Sky Doesn’t Lie Moreover, if we zoom out and focus our attention on the USD Index’s weekly chart, the price action has unfolded exactly as I expected. For example, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, the USD Index consolidated for a few weeks. However, history shows that the greenback eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon) Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index’s ascent has surprised investors. However, if you’ve been following my analysis, you know that I’ve been expecting these moves for over a year. Moreover, with the rally poised to persist, gold, silver, and mining stocks may struggle before they reach lasting bottoms. However, with long-term buying opportunities likely to materialize later in 2022, the precious metals should soar to new heights in the coming years. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
If It Had Been Basketball, We Might Say S&P 500 Had Been Blocked!

If It Had Been Basketball, We Might Say S&P 500 Had Been Blocked!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2022 16:01
S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Unforced Errors - 31.01.2022

Unforced Errors - 31.01.2022

David Merkel David Merkel 09.11.2021 04:40
Photo Credit: Paul Kagame || Hail Emperor Xi, the greatest since Qin Shi Huang! Ready for a cold winter? Much of the world is not. Many places have discouraged using hydrocarbons to produce power, ostensibly for environmental goals, whether those are valid or not. Whether by the fiat of the Chinese Communist Party, or because some Eurocrats push a green agenda, many people are facing a winter where power/heat may be limited. And even if there may not be absolute shortages everywhere, higher prices for all forms of energy, will pinch the budgets of many in the lower middle class and below this winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Part of this stems from central planning. China is the easiest example. Xi Jinping has arrogated to himself more and more power over time, changing the dynamics of the Communist Party, which once at least had some factions, to a unitary party that has only one leader, Emperor President Xi. Some of it came about by eliminating corrupt rivals, but the rest from instilling fear within the Party. Almost every evening, my wife and I read the Bible together. Recently we have been going through the post-exilic portions of the Old Testament where the Jews live under the rule of the Babylonian and Medo-Persian Empires. Those rulers were typically absolute monarchs: do what I say or die! In going through Esther, my wife commented that it was stupid to have laws that cannot be altered. (The same thing is stated in the Book of Daniel.) My comment back to her was if you were an absolute monarch in that era, you were God walking on earth, and could never be wrong. Thus no decree of an Emperor could be wrong. And so it is for President Xi: everything he says is right. He may be an atheist, but to the Chinese in Red China, he is “God walking on Earth” in at least the Hegelian sense. As such, he makes a decree, and those serving him are scared to do anything more or less than he wants. But with vague directives, what does he want? Unilateral authority is particularly vulnerable to making mistakes. In the intermediate-term, China is likely to get weaker because of the increasing concentration of power of President Xi. That’s not to say that capitalist democracies can’t run off the rails, but typically with enough dissenting voices, the worst outcomes don’t usually take place. There are exceptions though. The first exception is regulators with too much discretionary authority. By pursuing one limited goal in the short-run, such as long-term environmental objectives, they may harm the interests of ordinary people in developed markets by making it hard to get food, fuel/energy, and other necessities. And applying the same rules in foreign policy, they may well condemn the developing world to permanent poverty. The developing world thinks the developed world doesn’t care. They are right, and they will ignore what their current leaders have promised in order to curry temporary favor with the developed world. Now where there is the ability to self-correct, eventually societies will remove regulators, politicians, etc. That said, some things are more entrenched than others. I speak of the cult of stimulus. What is more untouchable than the central banks? It’s hard to think of anything more unaccountable. They may technically be beholden to the local parliament, but practically, no one ever messes with them aside from despots pursuing hyperinflation (Venezuela, Turkey, Lebanon, etc.). What gores me is that the unaccountable central banks never ‘fess up to errors. Listen to this: “Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stall,” the Fed said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report released Monday.Fed Warns of Peril in Run-Up of Risky Asset Prices, Stablecoins That serial blower of bubbles, the Fed, warns us about the height of risky asset prices. Fed policy works via encouraging economic actors to borrow less or more. They have been running a more aggressive monetary policy than they ever needed to, and in the process have inflated housing prices, stocks, bonds of all sorts, private equity, etc. This is not just true of the Fed in the US, but in most developed country central banks. This was an unforced error. Monetary policy could have been tightened in mid-2020, and I mean raising the Fed funds rate, not just stopping QE. When the equity markets race to new highs so rapidly, why should any stimulus exist at all? We don’t need stimulus from Congress either. When demand is so strong that supply chains creak, buckle, and seize up, it is not time to stimulate more, rather, it is time to balance the budget. I would like to think that supply-chain troubles, inflation, and growth are all transitory. But if in an effort to force growth higher than it should be in the short-run, the growth will still be transitory, but the supply-chain troubles and inflation will persist. Beware the experts that say they run things for your good; they likely don’t know what they are doing. ============= Ending note: one more thing, beware the inflation numbers, particularly on items in short supply. If the economists reduce the weights on those things in short supply, it will artificially understate inflation.
Breaking up is hard to do - 31.01.2022

Breaking up is hard to do - 31.01.2022

David Merkel David Merkel 10.11.2021 04:04
Photo Credit: Chris Blakeley || Always optimistic when things are growing, and in the dumps when it falls apart Over the years, I have suggested that two firms should break up on a number of occasions: AIG & GE. Both are now in the process of completing their breakups. The news on GE dropped today, and I was surprised that the media did not pick up on one significant question on the GE breakup. Who gets the insurance liabilities that have been a real pain to GE even after selling off Genworth. As I tweeted: General Electric to Split Into Three Public Companies – WSJ https://t.co/BR8uXhhDVJ Notably missing from all the $GE press coverage is who has to pay off the insurance liabilities: Aviation, probably the weakest of the three. Could gore those relying on the guarantee… pic.twitter.com/qhT0y4gfXL— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) November 9, 2021 How could they miss this? I think I first suggested that GE should break up in a comment in RealMoney’s Columnist Conversation sometime back in 2005, but that is lost in the pre-2008 RealMoney file system, and exists no more. In terms of what I can show I will quote from this old post from 2008: 5) File this under Sick Sigma, or Six Stigma — GE is finally getting closer to breaking up the enterprise.� It has always been my opinion that conglomerates don’t work because of diseconomies of scale.� As I wrote at RealMoney: David MerkelGE — Geriatric Elephant4/27/2007 1:16 PM EDT First, my personal bias. Almost every firm with a market cap greater than $100 billion should be broken up. I don’t care how clever the management team is, the diseconomies of scale become crushing in the megacaps. Regarding GE in specific, it is likely a better buy here than it was in early 1999, when the stock first breached this price level. That said, it doesn’t own Genworth, the insurance company that it had to jettison in order to keep its undeserved AAA rating. Which company did better since the IPO of Genworth? Genworth did so much better that it is not funny. 87% total return (w/divs reinvested) for GNW vs. 28% for GE. A pity that GE IPO’ed it rather than spinning it off to shareholders… But here’s a problem with breaking GE up. GE Capital, which still provides a lot of the profits could not be AAA as a standalone entity and have an acceptable ROE. It would be single-A rated, which would push up funding costs enough to cut into profit margins. (Note: GE capital could not be A-/A3 rated, or their commercial paper would no longer be A1/P1 which is a necessary condition for investment grade finance companies to be profitable.) Would GE do as well without a captive finance arm (GE Capital)? It would take some adjustment, but I would think so. So, would I break up GE by selling off GE Capital? Yes, and I would give GE Capital enough excess capital to allow it to stay AAA, even if it means losing the AAA at the industrial company, and then let the new GE Capital management figure out what to do with all of the excess capital, and at what rating to operate. Splitting up that way would force the industrial arm to become more efficient with its proportionately larger debt load, and would highlight the next round of breakups, which would have the industrial divisions go their own separate ways. Position: none, and I have never understood the attraction to GE as a stock Over the years, I continued to write about GE and Genworth (I grew bearish over LTC after analyzing Penn Treaty. I was always bearish on mortgage insurance). I never thought either would do well, but I never expected them to do as badly as they did. Optimistic accounting ploys from the Welch years bit into profits of Immelt, as he was forced to reset accruals higher again and again. Overly aggressive financial and insurance underwriting similarly had to be reversed, and losses realized. After today, all but the successor firm for GE (Aviation) has a chance to do something significant, freed from the distractions of being in a conglomerate. They can focus, and maybe win. As for GE Aviation, because of the insurance liabilities they will probably receive a valuation discount. Maybe they will sacrifice and pay up, selling the liabilities to Buffett with significant overcollateralization. American International Group I first suggested that AIG break up back in 2008. Only M. R. Greenberg had the capability of managing the behemoth, and once he was gone, lower level managers began making decisions that Greenberg would have quashed, which led to short-term gains, and larger long-term losses. After AIG was taken over by the Fed, bit-by-bit they began selling off the pieces — Hartford Steam Boiler, ILFC, AIA, Alico (to MetLife), and more. They were left with a portion of the international P&C business, and the domestic life and P&C businesses. They are now planning on spinning off the domestic life companies, which will leave AIG as a P&C insurer with relatively clean liabilities (They reinsured Asbestos and Environmental with Berkshire Hathaway). Where do we go from here? Is there a lesson here? Avoid complexity. Avoid mixing mixing industrial and financial. Avoid mixing life and P&C. (Allstate is finally splitting that.) That said, there may be another lesson for the future. What of the extremely large companies that are monopolies? Some of them aren’t complex; they just dominate a large area of the economy as monopolies. Governments want to do one of two things with monopolies. They either want to break them up, or turn them into regulated utilities. Why? The government doesn’t like entities that get almost as powerful as them, so they limit their size, scope, and subject them to regulation. So be aware if you hold some of the largest companies in the US or the world, because governments have their eyes on them, and want them to be subject to the government(s). Full disclosure: long MET
An Estimate of the Future - 31.01.2022

An Estimate of the Future - 31.01.2022

David Merkel David Merkel 19.11.2021 07:49
Photo Credit: eflon || All in all, you’re just another brick in the wall… In some ways, the Federal Reserve is the whipping boy of Congress. Congress can’t decide on anything significant, so the Fed fills in the blanks, and keeps things moving, even if it creates humongous asset bubbles in the process. That is what we are facing today. Overvalued stocks, housing, corporate bonds, private equity, and more. Inflation in goods and services may be transitory, but asset inflation is a constant. Whether by QE or rate policy, the Fed tries to end the possibility of recessions by making financing cheap, and blowing asset bubbles in the process. What of the future? The Fed will be dragged kicking and screaming to tightening. It will follow the stupid Alan Greenspan highway of 25 basis points per meeting. It will be all too predictable, which has little to no impact until it is too late, creating pro-cyclical economic policy, something the Fed specializes in. The Fed will be surprised (again) to see that the long end of the yield curve does not respond to their efforts. Are they stupid? Yes. the yield curve hasn’t worked in the classical way for over 20 years. In an overindebted economy, long rates are sluggish. Can the Fed abandon the dead orthodoxy of neoclassical economics to embrace the reality of overindebted economics? I doubt it. I asked two Fed governors three years ago when the Fed would abandon the failed Neoclassical economics. They looked like dead sheep for a moment, before they gave some lame defenses of the theory that can’t account for financial markets or marketing. What I expect is that the Fed will tighten the Fed funds rate to 1.5% or so, the long end sinking, and then something blows up, and they return to the prior policy of 0% rates, and QE… failed policies that inflate asset bubbles and increase inequality. We’re in a “doom loop” where there is no way to purge this system of its errors. We would be better off under a gold standard, with stricter regulation of banks. Would we have a recession? Yes, but eventually the economy would grow again organically, without the pollution of stimulus. That said, the Federal Reserve is not the main problem. The main problem is American culture that will not tolerate severe recessions. We need recessions to liquidate bad debts that hinder the economy from growing rapidly in the future. We need to accept the boom-bust cycle, and not look to the government or central bank to moderate matters. Bank regulation is another matter, as loose regulation of banks led to extreme booms and busts, particularly between 1870-1913, and 2004-2008. Conclusion The Fed will tighten and fail, returning us to the same morass that we are in now. Financial repression via the Fed will continue to create inequality with no smoking gun. Stupid people will finger other causes, when the real cause is the Federal Reserve. We need to eliminate the Federal Reserve, and cause Congress and the Executive Branch to take responsibility for their failed policies. PS — there could be a currency panic, but I doubt it. Too many countries want to export to the US.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2021 Update - 31.01.2022

Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2021 Update - 31.01.2022

David Merkel David Merkel 16.12.2021 04:35
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog This should be a brief post. At the end of the third quarter, the S&P 500 was poised to nominally return -0.64%/year over the next 10 years. As of the close today, that figure was -1.83%/year, slightly more than the -1.84%/year at the record high last Friday. The only period compares with this valuation-wise is the dot-com bubble. We are above dot-com level valuations. And if you view the 10-year returns from the worst time of the dot-com bubble to now, you can see that the results they obtained are milder than what I forecast here. Of course, a lot of what will happen in nominal terms will rely on the actions of the Fed. Will the Fed: Allow a real recession to clear away dud assets that are on life support from low rates? (Collapsing the current asset bubble)Change the terms of monetary policy, and start directly monetizing US Treasury debt? (Risking high inflation)Continue to dither with financial repression, leaving rates low, not caring about moderate inflation, with real growth zero-like. (Zombie economy — this is the most likely outcome for now) In some ways the markets are playing around with something I call “the last arbitrage.” Bonds versus Stocks. The concept of TINA (There is no alternative [to stocks]) relies on the idea that the Fed will be the lapdog of the equity markets. If stocks are high, the Fed is happy. Phrased another way, if the Fed maximizes wealth inequality, it is happy. And the Fed will be happy. They live to employ thousands of macroeconomists who would have a hard time finding real employment. These economists live to corrupt our understanding f the macroeconomy, justifying the actions of the Fed. The Fed just wants to scrape enough seigniorage to pay the staff, and keep Congress and the Administration mollified. All taken out of the hides of those who save. So with the last arbitrage… interest rates have to stay low to keep the stock market high, even if it means slow growth, and moderate and growing inflation. The likely change promulgated by the Fed today, raising the short rate by 0.75% in 2022 will likely flatten the yield curve, leading to a crisis of some sort, and push them back into QE and near-zero short rates. The stock market will have a pullback and a rally, but what of inflation? How will people act when there is no way to save for the short-run, without inflation eating away value? Brave new world. The Fed is stuck, and we are stuck with them. Gold does nothing, and would be a kinder mistress than the Fed. Better to live within strict limits, than the folly of an elastic currency. But as is true with all things in America, we are going to have to learn this the hard way. PS — As for me, I am living with value stocks, small stocks, and international stocks. Very little in the S&P 500 here.
APPL (Apple) After Release of The Reports. How Will It Affect The Market?

APPL (Apple) After Release of The Reports. How Will It Affect The Market?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.01.2022 16:11
Apple stock surges after a strong earnings release. AAPL popped 2% on the numbers, and this move has continued. Apple could turn the entire market sentiment around. Apple (AAPL) dropped earnings after the close last night, and they amounted to a blow out. There had been some talk of record numbers and iPhone sales prior to the release, but this set of earnings surprised even the most bullish previews. The stock immediately popped 2% and stabilized but has since added another 2% to its after-market gains and is currently at $165.79 in Friday's premarket. This marks a 4% gain on the regular session close from Thursday. This big question is whether Apple (AAPL) can turn the entire market sentiment around. It is after all the biggest company in the world with the highest weighting in the main S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. It certainly has the potential to call a bottom to this miserable start to 2022. Apple Stock News Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.10 versus the average estimate of $1.88. Revenue also beat estimates, hitting $123.9 billion versus $118.28 billion. The closely watched iPhone revenue number hit $71.63 billion and represents just under 58% of Apple's total revenue. Gross margins increased from 39.8% to 43.8% yearly. On the conference call post earnings, CEO Tim Cook said he sees this margin remaining strong in Q2 2022 to 43% at the midpoint of projections. However, the March quarter is traditionally the slowest of the year earnings wise due to the post-holiday season lull in sales activity. CFO Luca Maestri addressed the key question of supply chain issues, saying chip issues are only a problem for mostly older models and that problems have eased. Tim Cook said the supply chain is doing well. Overall, this was exactly what the market needed: blowout earnings with a significant beat. The earnings call offered strong revenue and most importantly positive commentary around the supply chain and semiconductor chip issues. We will likely see multiple analyst upgrades as the day progresses. Apple Stock Forecast This now becomes a key barometer for the broad market. AAPL should stabilize and appreciate further from here based on these results. If this current rally fails and fades, then truly we are entering a correction phase. For now, $157 remains key support. This is the high from September and also the 100-day moving average. Hold here and we can then target $167.63 and then onto record highs. Also note how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold by traditional metrics at 30 (we prefer to use 20) and how the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also at lows with the histogram at the widest we have seen for some time. All of these are indicators of oversold conditions. Everything looks set up for a turnaround. The only caveat is the overall market sentiment. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily
S&P 500 (SPX) A Very Tight Sequence of The Latest Candles In The Chart

S&P 500 (SPX) A Very Tight Sequence of The Latest Candles In The Chart

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.01.2022 15:53
S&P 500 left the 4,270s - 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. The sizable open long profits can keep growing. Only the market internals would be poor, so better don‘t look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, and similar metrics. Enough to say that Friday‘s advance was sparked by the Apple news. When it‘s only the generals that are advancing while much of the rest remains in shambles, Houston has a problem – we aren‘t there yet. Fed‘s Kashkari also helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Couple that with resilient oil – more profits taken off the table Friday at $88.30 – and you‘ve got a pretty resilient inflation. Not that inflation expectations would be shaking in their boots, not that commodities would be cratering. It‘s only copper (influencing silver) that has to figure out just how overdone its Friday‘s move had been. Not that other base metals would be that pessimistic. Similarly to precious metals and the early tightening phase, commodities would be under temporary pressure as well, but outperforming as we officially enter stagflation. Not too tough to imagine given the GDP growth downgrades. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Great finish to the week, but S&P 500 bulls have quite a job ahead – it continues being choppy out there. I‘m still looking at bonds with tech for direction. Credit Markets HYG finally turned around, and Friday was a risk-on day. The question remains how far can the retracement (yes, it‘s retracement only) reach – can the pre-FOMC highs be approached? Could be, could be. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreated, but no chart damage was done – things are still going sideways as the countdown is on for the Fed to either tighten too much and send markets crashing, or reverse course (again). Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and why should it be given that it can‘t be printed. Some backing and filling is ahead before the uptrend reasserts itself. Copper Copper is the only red flag, and seeing it rebound would call off the amber light. This is the greatest non-confirmation of the commodities direction in quite a while, and that‘s why I‘m taking it with more than a pinch of salt. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Summary S&P 500 bulls finally moved in an otherwise volatile and choppy week. For the days ahead, volatility is likely to calm down somewhat, but chop is likely to be with us still – only that I expect it to be of the bullish flavor. 10-year Treasury yield has calmed down, and that would be constructive for stocks – watch next for the 2-year to take notice likewise. The 2-year Treasury is quite sensitive to the anticipated Fed moves, and illustrates well the rate hike fears – coupled with the compressed 10-year to 2-year ratio, we‘re looking at rising expectation of the Fed policy mistake (in tightening too much, too fast). For now though, stocks can recover somewhat, and most of the commodities can keep on appreciating. Precious metals keep being in the waiting game, very resilient, and will turn out one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

BTC +7.3% (ca. $37k), ETH +7%, LUNA -25% - Last Week On Cryptomarket

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.01.2022 09:48
Bitcoin gained 7.3% over the past week, ending last week near $37,700. Ethereum added 7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 25% over the week (Terra) to a rise of 4.6% (Binance Coin). Terra's collapse is linked to the scandal surrounding the Wonderland DeFi protocol. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.7% to $1.79 trillion for the week. The week didn't start encouragingly for bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency updated six-month lows below $33,000, but BTC sharply redeemed the short-term fall amid an equally sharp rebound in US stock indices. The US stock market interrupted last week's decline and rose for the first time after three weeks of decline. Apple's stock price jumped on Friday after a positive quarterly report and on Tim Cook's statements about the great potential of the metaverse. The rise in the stock market also contributed to the rebound in the cryptocurrency market, which again points to the strong correlation of stock and digital assets in recent times. This trend could continue at least until the end of this year. Despite stabilisation, the situation in the crypto market remains very fragile. Bitcoin could end up falling for the third month in a row. The decline in January is over 17%, and the first cryptocurrency has already lost 45% since the highs in November. The US Treasury Department plans to revisit the controversial FinCEN proposal for mandatory verification of bitcoin wallet users in 2022. If adopted, the proposal would require cryptocurrency exchanges to collect personal data from their users.
Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.02.2022 13:18
Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Tesla (TSLA) Price Also Has Its Ups and Downs. It's Below $920 Currently

Tesla (TSLA) Price Also Has Its Ups and Downs. It's Below $920 Currently

FXStreet News FXStreet News 31.01.2022 15:49
Tesla stock tumbles after beating earnings estimates TSLA shares hit by concerns over supply chain issues. Apple and big tech could turn the market next week. Tesla (TSLA) staged a modest recovery on Friday, but the real damage was done on Thursday when the stock shed nearly 12%. Friday's move was not even that impressive given Tesla's high beta, a fact that would usually see it bounce significantly more than the major indices. As we know well by now high, growth is not the sector of choice this year, and Tesla does straddle this space. Investors are moving back to more traditional sectors and metrics for their portfolios, and the era of high flying growth is coming to an end, for now at least. We view this as a positive event, stretching too far would have resulted in an ugly snapback or bubble popping most likely. This stabilisation should continue for the year with one or two speculative dead cat bounces along the way. We may just get one of those next week as the remainder of big tech gets a chance to continue on from where Apple led. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are all reporting earnings this week. Positive earnings should steady sentiment, and this would then also likely spread to some high growth names. However, in the longer term, we expect balance sheets rather than growth to outperform this year. Tesla Stock News Tesla is not just pure growth, although it is managing to do that rather impressively if the latest results are anything to go by. It will stay with the pace, while other start-up EV manufacturers are more likely to fade away. Tesla created the EV space and remains the brand leader. This will likely not change since it has positioned itself as a premium brand. It will likely face more competition, but we do not see it losing quite as much market share as that forecast by Bank of America. Forecasting a drop from 69% to 19% market share in the space of two years does seem a bit headline-grabbing. The problem for Tesla is its valuation got too ahead of itself, so it is likely to underperform in this new environment despite continued strong earnings and revenue growth. Tesla Stock Forecast The bearish trend is now well-established. Thursday's losses only followed on from what we identified back in early January. The spike higher failed, and then it created a lower low, which confirmed the mid-December low. Even Friday's price action set a lower low than Thursday before the bounce set in. Resistance at $987 is last week's high and is first up. A close above that is significant and a new bar above that will signify a small short-term uptrend. Otherwise, the medium-term downtrend remains in control with support at the 200-day moving average, which sits at $814 currently. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily
SolScan - Many Of Investors Probably Don't Know This Term

(SOL) Solana Price Is Quite Far From End of 2021 Tops

FXStreet News FXStreet News 31.01.2022 15:49
Solana price keeps hovering above the monthly S2 support. SOL price sees RSI slowly climbing out of the oversold area on the RSI. Expect a pickup in bullish sentiment once Nasdaq confirms risk-on will be the central theme for this week. Solana (SOL) price saw its bullish reversal stop short on Sunday and is now nearing the monthly S2 support level again at $89.28. Although ASIA PAC equity and European indices are firmly in the green, the sentiment has not spilled over to US futures and cryptocurrencies yet. Expect a bounce off the monthly S2 support level and look for a first test at $100 to the upside before continuation this week towards $130.70. Solana bulls are pushing the RSI away from the oversold area Solana price action saw bulls in good shape on Friday and Saturday, erasing a part of the games and trying to reach $100 to the upside. Instead, the sharp uptick stopped on Sunday as cryptocurrencies again looked heavy, with trading starting on Monday. Strangely enough, the most critical Asian indices and European indices are firmly in the green, where US futures are somewhat mixed and relatively flat during the European trading session. Expect for SOL price to stay hovering around this S2 level as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at or in an oversold area, limiting any potential downside for bears. This should help bulls to use this window of opportunity to go long and make a bounce off the S2 level at $89.28. Once US futures kick into gear and take over the sentiment from Europe, expect some bullish uptick again, targeting $100 intraday and $130.70 for this week. SOL/USD daily chart On the downside, a break below the S2 support level would see a dip towards the low from last week, around $82. If European indices give up their gains and turn red, together with US futures firmly in the red, expect to see another wave of selling, with a possible nosedive threat towards $58.84. With that move, the RSI would overshoot firmly into being oversold.
XAU Stays Strong, But Went Below The "Iconic" Value

XAU Stays Strong, But Went Below The "Iconic" Value

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 01.02.2022 16:30
  Gold fought valiantly, gold fought nobly, gold fought honorably. Despite all this sacrifice, it lost the battle. How will it handle the next clashes? Have you ever felt trapped in the tyranny of the status quo? Have you ever felt constrained by some invisible yet powerful forces trying to thwart the fullest realization of your potential? I guess this is what gold would feel like right now – if metals could feel anything, of course. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, January looked to be quite good for the yellow metal. Its price surpassed the key level of $1,800 at the end of 2021, rallying from $1,793 to $1,847 on January 25, 2022. Then the evil FOMC published its hawkish statement on monetary policy. In its initial response, gold slid. That’s true, but it bravely defended its positions above $1,800 during both Wednesday and Thursday. There was still hope. However, on Friday, the metal capitulated and plunged to $1,788. Here we are again – below the level of $1,800 that gold hasn’t been able to exceed for more than several days since mid-2021, as the chart below shows. Am I disappointed? A bit. Naughty goldie! Am I surprised? Not at all. Although I cheered the recent rally, I was unconvinced about its sustainability in the current macroeconomic context, i.e., economic recovery with tightening of monetary policy (the surprisingly positive report on GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 didn’t probably help gold), rising interest rates, and possibly a not-distant peak in inflation. In the previous edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I described the Fed’s actions as “a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls” and pointed out that “gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness.” I added that it was also disturbing that “gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.” Last but not least, I concluded my report with a warning that “the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.” My warning came true very quickly. Of course, we cannot exclude a relatively swift rebound. After all, gold can be quite volatile in the short-term, and this year could be particularly turbulent for the yellow metal. However, I’m afraid that the balance of risks for gold is the downside. Next month (oh boy, it’s February already!), we will see the end of quantitative easing and the first hike in the federal funds rate, followed soon by the beginning of quantitative tightening and further rate hikes. Using its secret magic, the Fed has convinced the markets that it has become a congregation of hawks, or even a cult of the Great Hawk. According to the CME Fed Tool, future traders have started to price in five 25-basis-point raises this year, while some investors believe that the Fed will lift interest rates by 50 basis points in March. All these clearly hawkish expectations led to the rise in bond yields (see the chart below), creating downward pressure on gold.   Implications for Gold What does the recent plunge in gold prices imply for investors? Well, in a sense, nothing, as short-term price movements shouldn’t affect long-term investments. Trading and investing should be kept separate. However, gold’s return below $1,800 can disappoint even the biggest optimists. The yellow metal failed again. Not the first and not the last time, though. In my view, gold may struggle by March, as all these hawkish expectations will exert downward pressure on the yellow metal. In 2015, the first hike in the tightening cycle coincided with the bottom of the gold market. It may be similar this time, as the actual hike could ease some of the worst expectations and also push markets to think beyond their tightening horizon. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4 earnings blowout before the end of 2021?

Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4 earnings blowout before the end of 2021?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.12.2021 21:50
Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022 Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4:2021 earnings blowout before the end of 2021? Let’s take a look at what predictive modeling can help us understand. The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing up expectations of a Santa Rally. Yet, here we are with only five trading days before the end of 2021, and the US major indexes are nearing all-time highs again. PREDICTIVE MODELING SHOWS A CONTINUED MELT-UP TREND THROUGH JAN/FEB 2022 Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system may hold the answers you are looking for. Let’s look at a few charts to prepare for what may unfold over the next 60+ days. First, this SPY Weekly ADL chart highlights the range of potential outcomes going forward into March/April 2022. The further out we attempt to predict using this technique, the more opportunity exists for outlier events (unusual price trends/activity). Yet, the SPY ADL predictive modeling system suggests a very strong upward price trend in January/February 2022, with a possible narrowing of price in late February – just before another big move higher in March/April 2022. There is an outlier trend that appears below the current price trend. So far, this outlier trend has not aligned with price action over the past 5+ weeks and shows an alternate support level near $430. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The ADL predictive modeling system suggests a broad market uptrend is likely in the SPY, with an initial target near $490 possibly being reached by early February. If Q4:2021 earnings come in strong and revenues continue to impress the markets, we may see a rally above the $490 level before the end of February 2022. After the tightening of price near the end of February 2022, it appears the SPY will consolidate near $480, then enter another rally phase and attempt to rally above $500. This type of price action aligns with solid Q4:2021 expectations and continued Q1:2022 economic growth. ADL PREDICTS QQQ WILL RALLY ABOVE $430 BY MARCH/APRIL 2022 This Weekly QQQ ADL Chart highlights a similar type of price trend compared to the SPY. The QQQ appears to have a more consistent upward trend bias with a fairly solid upward price channel trending through the first four months of 2022. It appears the QQQ will rally to levels above $420 by mid-February 2022, then stall for a few weeks, then resume a rally trend through most of March 2022 and into early April 2022. After mid-April 2022, it appears the QQQ will consolidate, again, near the $420~$425 level. This ADL prediction suggests Technology, Healthcare, Consumer stables/discretionary, Real Estate, and other sectors will continue to do well in Q1:2022 and beyond. A rally of 7% to 10% in the first few months of 2022 may send the US markets dramatically higher throughout the rest of 2022 if economic growth stays strong. The ADL predictive modeling system has proven to be a valuable tool in understanding what lies ahead for the markets. Not only does it show a range of potential outcomes and price targets, but it also helps us understand if and when price breaks beyond these ADL predictive ranges (which translates into a unique price anomaly). Price anomalies happen. The COVID-19 price collapse represented a unique price anomaly in 2020. This event, somewhat like a Black Swan event, hit the markets hard and quickly sent prices tumbling. It is important to understand that these events can still happen in the future and can dramatically disrupt expected price trends. Still, if the ADL predictive price trends continue to be accurate, it looks like Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 may continue to see moderate upward price trends with bouts of sideways volatility taking place. The range of the ADL predictive levels (the MAGENTA LINES) shows the type or expected volatility in the markets for Q1 and Q2. It appears volatility will stay elevated over the next 6+ months – so get ready for some big, explosive price trends. Watch for the markets to continue to melt higher over the next few weeks as traders prepare for Q4:2021 earnings to start hitting in early January 2022. We may see the US markets start another big upside price trend – possibly breaking to new all-time highs soon enough. WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PREDICTIVE MODELING? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. We’ve built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results. Have a great day!
5 Interesting Energy Stocks added to our Watchlist this Quarter

5 Interesting Energy Stocks added to our Watchlist this Quarter

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.12.2021 10:12
December 1, 2021 The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately two-thirds over and we wanted to highlight some of the Top Energy Companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. Our QuantStock system is a proprietary algorithm that takes into account key company fundamentals, earnings trends and other strength components to find quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. The QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price or technical price trends so one must compare each company idea against the current stock prices. There are a plethora of professional studies that continue to show stock markets are overvalued and this is always a key component to consider when researching any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Suncor Energy Energy Stock | Medium Cap | 5.42 percent dividend | 15.22 P/E | Our Grade = C+ Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU) is one of Canada’s biggest energy stocks. It is an integrated energy company engaged in producing synthetic crude from oil sands. Suncor last announced its financial results for the third quarter on October 27. It came up with earnings of 56 cents per share and revenue of $8.11 billion for the three months ended September 30. The results showed significant improvement from the comparable quarter of 2020 but missed the consensus forecast of 58 cents per share for profit and $8.5 billion for revenue. Despite missing expectations, Suncor Energy stock climbed to a new high of $26.97 earlier this month. Matador Resources Co. Energy Stock | Small Cap | 0.51 percent dividend | 16.78 P/E | Our Grade = C- Matador Resources Co. (NYSE: MTDR) is an energy company based in Texas, United States. The company last month announced impressive financial results for the third quarter. Matador earned $1.25 per share during the three months ended September 30, beating the consensus forecast of 96 cents per share. Moreover, it generated revenue of $472.351 million during the quarter, ahead of analysts’ average estimate of $387.950 million. In addition, Matador stock has also performed exceptionally well so far in 2021. The company’s share price has skyrocketed more than 200 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.16 – $47.23, while its total market value stands close to $4.5 billion. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. Energy Stock | Small Cap | 0.84 percent dividend | 11.29 P/E | Our Grade = C- Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: MGY) is another Texas-based oil producer. The company posted solid financial results for the third quarter earlier this month. Magnolia reported adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share on revenue of $283.58 million. The results easily surpassed analysts’ average estimate of 61 cents per share for earnings and $274 million for revenue. If we quickly look at its key financial metrics, Magnolia stock is currently trading around $18.82, against its 52-week range of $18.38 – $19.07. Moreover, the company’s market value is just over $3.4 billion, while its P/E ratio stands at 11.03. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. Energy Stock | Medium Cap | 10.26 percent dividend | 3.71 P/E | Our Grade = C China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (NYSE: SNP), commonly known as Sinopec, is a leading oil and gas company based in China. Besides its listing in the New York Stock Exchange, it also trades in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Sinopec last month announced mixed results for the third quarter. Its reported earnings of $2.64 per share, representing a sharp decline from $5.54 per share in the comparable period of 2020. On the positive side, its revenue for the third quarter grew over 52 percent to $114.58 million. If we look at its share price, Sinopec stock has struggled to gain value so far in 2021. The stock has only increased nearly one percent on a year-to-date basis. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. Energy Stock | Medium Cap | 19.49 percent dividend | 2.71 P/E | Our Grade = C Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE: PBR) is one of the leading energy stocks based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The company, also called Petrobras, is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Petrobras last released its quarterly financial results on October 28. The company reported earnings of $5.9 billion for the third quarter, down 26.9 percent from Q2 but significantly higher than the comparable period of 2020. In addition, its quarterly revenue of $23.3 billion was also well above $13.15 billion in the year-ago period. If we talk about its share price movement, Petrobras stock hasn’t performed well this year. The stock is still down nearly six percent on a year-to-date basis. Article by InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.
Challenges in the Philippines: Rising Rice and Energy Costs Threaten Inflation Stability

Market Shrugs Off Chinese Signals and Keeps the Yuan Bid

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 22.11.2021 13:35
November 22, 2021  $CHF, $USD, BOE, China, Currency Movement, FOMC, Japan, Philippines, Russia Overview:  The US dollar has come back bid from the weekend against most currencies following the talk by a couple of Fed governors about the possibility of accelerating the tapering at next month's FOMC meeting.  The weekend also saw protests against the social restrictions being imposed by several European countries in the face of a surge in Covid cases.  The Swedish krona, yen, and sterling are the weakest, while the dollar-bloc currencies are resisting the greenback's tug. Most of the freely accessible and liquid currencies among emerging market currencies, including Russia, Hungary, South Africa, and Mexico, are heavy. At the same time, the Turkish lira recoups a little of the ground lost last week, and the Chinese yuan shrugged off apparently warnings from the PBOC to post its first gain in three sessions.  Equity markets in the Asia Pacific area mostly fell, though China and South Korea were notable exceptions.  Europe's Stoxx 600 snapped a six-week advance last week but has begun the news week with a small gain through the European morning.  US futures are trading higher.  The bond market is heavy, with the 10-year US Treasury up about three basis points to around 1.58%.  European benchmark yields are 2-3 bp higher.  Gold finished last week on a softer note and edged lower today to trade below $1840 for the first time since November 10.  Resistance is around $1850.  News that Japan may join the US to release oil from reserves saw January WTI slip below $75 but recover back above $76.  It met the (38.2%) retracement of the rally from the late August low near $60.75.  European natural gas (Netherlands) is lower for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has fallen around 11%.   Iron ore extended the 5.6% gains before the weekend with another 4% gain today.  On the other hand, copper rose 3.3% in the past two sessions and has come back offered today.  Lastly, the CRB Index eased less than 1% last week and is off two of the past three weeks.  Its seven-month rally is at risk.   Asia Pacific Despite China's economic success, it remains clumsy and heavy-handed.   As the US and some other countries were considering a symbolic diplomatic boycott of the winter Olympics in Beijing, the tennis star Peng Shuai is being censored or worse for allegations against a former Politburo member.  Meanwhile, at the end of last week, three Chinese coast guard vessels launched water cannons against two Filipino boats sent to resupply a garrison on the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal), which is within the Philippines' Kalayanan Island Group.  The aggressive harassment brought a rebuke by the US, which reminded Beijing of its mutual defense agreement with Manila.   The Philippines will attempt to bring provision again this week.  Separately, note that after being notified by the US of the military nature of the Chinese construction project in the UAE, the project has been halted.   With the yuan at six-year highs against a trade-weighted basket, Chinese officials have begun expressing more concern about the one-way market.  The FX Committee, composed of industry participants, wants members to do a better job monitoring prop trading, and it follows the PBOC works of caution about risk management at the end of last week.  In its quarterly monetary review, the PBOC made a few tweaks that suggest it could ease policy.   Japan's Prime Minister Kishida acknowledged that releasing oil from its strategic reserve was under discussion.  China indicated it would tap its reserves last week for the second time since September, while it is still under review in the US.  Currently, Japan keeps reserves that are intended to last 90 days, while the private sector must hold reserves to last 70 days, according to reports.  Japan is considering selling oil and using the funds to subsidize the rising gasoline prices.  It may also reduce the duration of the reserves.   The dollar is straddling the JPY114.00 level as its hugs the pre-weekend range (~JPY113.60-JPY114.55).  The JPY114.30 area offers initial resistance, while the focus in early North America may be on the downside.  Still, it appears to be going nowhere quickly.   The Australian dollar finished last week at its lowest level since early October.  That low, just below $0.7230, held, and momentum traders covered shorts, helping lift the Aussie back to session highs near $0.7260.  A move above here allows gains into the $0.7270-$0.7290 area.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3952 today.  The market (Bloomberg survey median) had projected a CNY6.3931 fix.  Although the dollar is softer today, it held above last week's lows as consolidation is evident.  It remains within the range set last Tuesday (~CNY6.3670-CNY6.3965).   Europe With the Swiss franc appreciating to six-year highs against the euro, it would not be surprising to see the SNB intervene.  The first place to look for it is in the weekly domestic sight deposits.  They rose by CHF2.58 bln, the second-most in the past three months.  Recall the mechanics.  The SNB buys euros but just sitting on them distorts the allocation strategy.  So it needs to either sell some euros for dollars or Swiss francs for dollars.  If it does the latter, its overall level of reserve growth accelerates.  Many suspect it will do the former, i.e., sell some euros for dollars.   The US continues to warn that Russia's troop and equipment movement is consistent with a rapid large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple spots simultaneously.  The suggestion, according to reports, is that the operation could take place early next year.  Both Ukraine and Georgia are seeking more US assistance.  Recall Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014.   Bank of England Governor Bailey has toned down his rhetoric, though he blames the market for misconstruing his remarks last month.  He warns now that next month's decision is finely balanced and that the price pressures are emanating primarily from supply-side disruptions for which monetary policy is less directly effective.   The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures contract is slipping for the fourth consecutive session.  Today's yield of about 21 bp is the lowest since early October.  The yield peaked in mid-October near 62 bp.  Lastly, while progress on the UK-EU talks has been reported, the two sides are still far apart.  Talks between Frost and Sefcovic will resume at the end of this week.   The prospect that a new German government could be announced this week has not helped the euro very much.  The single currency, which was sold through $1.14 and $1.13 last week, is struggling to find a base.  It has held above the pre-weekend low near $1.12560 but only barely (~$1.1260), and the attempt to resurface above $1.1300 was rebuffed. A move above $1.1320 may suggest some near-term consolidation, perhaps ahead of Wednesday's US PCE deflator report.  That said, tomorrow's flash PMI composite reading for the eurozone is expected to have weakened for the fourth consecutive month.  Sterling could not rise 15 ticks from its pre-weekend close (~$1.3450).  The downside was also limited (~$1.3420).  It caught a bid in the European morning that could extend into the US morning.  Still, the $1.3460-$1.3480 band may be a sufficient cap.  The market does not appear inclined to see trigger the $1.3395 option that expires today for about GBP425 mln.   America President Biden's announcement on the Fed's leadership could come as early as tomorrow, as he is set to deliver a speech on the economy tomorrow.  But it probably would be a separate announcement.  Given the expiration of the terms of the two vice-chairs, changes among a few of the regional presidents, and the challenging situation, President Biden is likely to follow Treasury Secretary Yellen's recommendation to re-appoint Powell.  Moreover, a tradition goes back to Volcker of one party making the initial nomination and the other party approving of another term.  This helped "depoliticize" monetary policy.  Trump broke with that tradition, and as Biden has done in a number of other areas, is restoring some traditions.  Lastly, we suspect that if Bernanke or Yellen, or Brainard were at the helm of the Fed, there would not be substantive monetary policy differences.   Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Waller joined regional Fed President Bullard to suggest that Fed may consider accelerating the pace of tapering at next month's FOMC meeting.  We suspect others will be sympathetic after this week's October PCE and deflator news.  The economy is rebounding in Q4 from the disappointing 2% annualized pace in Q3 (which is likely to be revised higher on Wednesday), and a critical part is consumption.  Personal consumption expenditures are expected to rise by 1% after a 0.6% increase in September.  The headline PCE deflator, which the Fed targets 2% on average, which Governor Brainard reportedly helped devise, is expected to jump above 5% from 4.4% in September.  The core rate is expected to exceed 4%.  No Fed officials are slated to speak this week, but the minutes from the November 3 FOMC meeting will be released on November 24.   El Salvador caught the crypto world's attention again.  It is the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender.  It announced plans to issue a $1 bln bond, and half the proceeds will be used to buy Bitcoin (~2000 coins).  The other half will be used to fund infrastructure projects to build the infrastructure of more Bitcoins.  It will offer a 6.5% coupon, which is lower than current dollar issues.  It looks like one pays a lot for BTC exposures.  El Salvador is rated BB+ of the equivalent by the top three rating agencies.  This makes El Salvador bonds risky, to begin with, and adding Bitcoin on top of that would seem to preclude most retail and institutional investors.  It seems like a desperate act that only an impoverished country can try.  The idea that other countries will quickly follow seems to be a stretch.  There is a good reason why Tesla had few corporate followers to buy Bitcoins with reserve funds.  The same principle would seem to apply to countries.   The economic calendar for North America begins off slowly this week.  Today's main feature is the US existing home sales report.  A pullback after September's heady 7% gain is expected, the strongest in a year.  After a weak start to the year, existing home sales have recovered.  They averaged 5.66 mln (seasonally adjusted annual rate) last year and have averaged more than 6.0 mln for the past three months.  The Canadian dollar has weakened for the past four weeks.  It briefly poked above CAD1.2660 ahead of the weekend to reach its best level since early October.  The greenback is in about a 15-tick range on either side of CAD1.2645 today.  Support is seen in the CAD1.2600-CAD1.2620 area, but it may take a break of CAD1.2585 to boost confidence that a high is in place.  The US dollar rose 1.5% against the Mexican peso last week.  It was the third weekly gain in the past four weeks.  The greenback is trading above last week's high (~MXN20.89) and looks set to test the high set earlier this month near MXN20.98.  Lastly, the Chilean presidential election will go to a run-off next month, as widely expected between the far-right and far-left candidates.   The dollar snapped a five-week pullback against the Chilean peso last week, rising 3.6%, the most in three months.  Year-to-date, the peso is off nearly 14.25%.   Disclaimer
S&P 500 Is Almost At New Record High, Will The Uptrend Continue?

S&P 500 Is Almost At New Record High, Will The Uptrend Continue?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 17.11.2021 16:15
S&P 500 got close to its all-time high, as market mood turned bullish again. But the index retraced some of the rally. So will the uptrend continue? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch The S&P 500 index gained 0.39% on Tuesday, Nov. 16, as it closed slightly above the 4,700 mark. The market reached the daily high of 4,714.95 before retracing some of the intraday advance. It got close to the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50. Last week it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the record high. The early November rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and it traded within a topping pattern. Then the index retraced some of that advance, as it fell the mentioned 88 points from the record high. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Extended Its Short-Term Uptrend Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level recently and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But last week it retraced some of the advance and it got back to the 16,000 level. Since then it has been advancing and yesterday it got back closer to the record high, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Above $150, Microsoft at New Record High Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple broke above the $150 price level yesterday. However, it remains well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock retraced all of its recent decline and it reached the new record high of $340.67 yesterday, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open virtually flat this morning. We may see another attempt at breaking above the 4,700 level. However, the market will likely continue to fluctuate along that level following mixed economic data releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 bounced from its last week’s local low and it got back above the 4,700 level yesterday. It still looks like a short-term consolidation. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Will Oil Go Down In Following Weeks?

Will Oil Go Down In Following Weeks?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 01.02.2022 16:23
  While last week's geopolitical tensions have eased a bit, the OPEC+ members’ meeting knocks at the door. How will it affect crude inventories? Crude oil prices paused this morning in the European trading session, the day after a new technical increase linked to the expiration of futures contracts. OPEC+ members, including Russia, are due to hold a meeting tomorrow in which speculative talks suggest that OPEC+ could announce a quicker increase in supply. On the other hand, US crude inventories should be scrutinized this week, with the first figure to be released later today by the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 2130 GMT / 1530 Chicago Time. Therefore, we could see a new rise in crude stockpiles of 2 million barrels. As a result, the oil market could be set to start a pullback down to previous support – $ 85.80 could represent a level that would attract more bulls, eventually. Regarding OPEC+ output, Saudi Arabia could decide to add barrels on top of its quota, as the kingdom is one of the only members of the cartel able to ramp up production, if necessary. On the US dollar side, the recent rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil. The overall inverted/negative correlation between the USD and black gold could catch up now as we have a greenback sliding after less hawkish comments from the Fed than expected and a barrel located in overbought territory. On the geopolitical scene, the slight ease of tensions from the past week – or, at least, the diminution of anxiety inducing news in the mainstream media headlines – is characterized by decreasing volatility. The latter is thus marked by a volatility index (VIX) – aka “Fear Index” sliding just below 25 today. WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) In summary, after such a rally in January 2022 on crude oil prices, we may start to see a weakening of the momentum, which could result in correcting oil prices, if such a scenario of supply and demand dynamics is followed on both sides (input rise / stockpiles accumulation) of the market. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Markets Situation, Federal Reserve, Crude, EURJPY, Gazprom And More - "The Trade Off" Is Here!

It Won't Be A Surprise, If We Say S&P 500 Is Moving Like APPL (Apple) According To These Charts...

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 01.02.2022 15:38
  Stocks extended their Friday’s rally yesterday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the 4,500 level. Is this still just an upward correction? The S&P 500 index gained 1.89% on Monday, as it extended its Friday’s gains and broke above the 4,500 level. It retraced more of its recent declines after breaking above the last week’s consolidation along the 4,300-4,400. On last Monday’s low of 4,222.62 the market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it reached the new local high of 4,516.89. It still looks like an upward correction within a downtrend, however, the market may be also trading within a new uptrend. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. On Friday it broke above a steep short-term downward trend line. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher following an overnight consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,500-4,550, marked by the previous local lows. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450, marked by the recent resistance level. The S&P 500 is now back above its early December local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Rallies Again Recently, Apple stock fluctuated along the support level of $155.0-157.5 following mid-January downtrend ahead of its quarterly earnings release. The stock reversed the downtrend after breaking above a short-term consolidation and since the earnings release it gained more than 10%. The resistance level is at around $180.0-183.0, marked by the Jan. 4 record high of $182.94. Conclusion The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s advance yesterday and it broke slightly above the 4,500 level. It still looks like an upward correction following mid-January declines and a rebound within a new medium-term downtrend. Stocks may further extend their uptrend, but there’s a risk of a short-term downward reversal. Today the index is expected to open 0.3% higher, and we may see some uncertainty and a consolidation along the 4,500 level. The market will be waiting for the quarterly earnings releases (AMD, Alphabet today after the session’s close, Meta tomorrow and Amazon on Thursday, among others) and Friday’s monthly jobs data announcement. There is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. We decided to close our profitable long position that was opened on Tuesday, Jan. 25 at the 4,335 level - S&P 500 continuous futures contract. The details of that position (stop-loss and profit target levels) were available for our subscribers in the premium Stock Trading Alerts. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 broke above the 4,500 level again; it still looks like an upward correction. We decided to close our speculative long position from last Tuesday (4,335 level) at the opening of today’s cash market’s trading session – a gain of around 175 index points. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Pairs With American Dollar: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD - Update

Pairs With American Dollar: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD - Update

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.02.2022 08:31
AUDUSD recoups losses The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA signaled an end to its bond-buying program. The recent sell-off below the daily support and psychological level of 0.7000 further weighed on market sentiment. As the RSI dipped again into the oversold territory, short-term sellers’ profit-taking has driven the price higher. The bears could be looking to fade the current rebound unless the bulls succeed in pushing past 0.7180. 0.7030 is a fresh support and 0.6970 a major floor before June 2020’s lows near 0.6800. USDCAD tests support The Canadian dollar advanced after November’s GDP exceeded expectations. A break above the supply zone at 1.2730 has put the US counterpart back on track. Nonetheless, the rally came to a halt at the daily resistance at 1.2790. The greenback needed a breather as the surge prevented buyers from chasing after volatility. 1.2580 is a key support and an oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest again. A close above the said resistance could propel the pair to December’s high at 1.2950. NZDUSD sees limited rebound The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the Q4 jobless rate dropped to 3.2%. The pair saw bids over September 2020’s lows around 0.6530. The RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught bargain hunters’ attention. However, the directional bias remains bearish. The kiwi could find resistance at 0.6700 near the 20-day moving average as trend-followers look to sell into strength. 0.6400 would be the next target if the US dollar makes a comeback across the board.
BTC +0.6%, ETH gains 3.7%, Solana (SOL) Increases By 12.8%

BTC +0.6%, ETH gains 3.7%, Solana (SOL) Increases By 12.8%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.02.2022 12:42
Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $38,700. Ethereum added 3.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are growing: from 0.5% (Binance Coin) to 12.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.5% to $1.86 trillion overnight. Bitcoin hit a week-and-a-half high above $39,000 on Tuesday but then pulled back, offsetting almost all of the gains. The first cryptocurrency was boosted by positive stock indexes and a weakening dollar, but sellers began taking profits on long positions. Over the last eight days, BTC gained almost 20%, recouping more than half of the failure of the second half of January, and buyers decided not to take risks. Ahead is solid psychological resistance at the circular $40,000 level, which supported the first half of January. Technically, Bitcoin has stalled its gains as it approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel. Traders are waiting for new signals about whether the recovery in risk demand will continue or whether the latest rebound will soon be choked off. The result of this struggle will determine whether we will see a break from the downtrend or whether the downtrend will continue again. El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is confident that bitcoin will still show tremendous growth. It's all about the fact that there are 50 million millionaires in the world. If they wanted to buy a coin, there wouldn't be enough for everyone, as the entire bitcoin issue wouldn't exceed 21 million. MicroStrategy added another 660 BTC on the recent market decline. In total, MicroStrategy already has more than 125,000 bitcoins. Russian government officials told Bloomberg that Russians own $214 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. That's about 12% of the total crypto market capitalisation.
Ripple (XRP), Ether (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) - Video Analysis

Ripple (XRP), Ether (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) - Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 02.02.2022 14:11
Bitcoin edging very slowly higher but I am not convinced this is the start of a bull trend. Ripple seeing consolidation & narrowing ranges but I do not think this is a base building exercise. Same levels apply for today. Ethereum however is seeing a push higher. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin edging very slowly towards strong resistance at the 500 day moving average at 40400/40600. Above here meets 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 41400/500. Minor support levels for scalpers are at 37900/700 & 36900/800. Further losses target 36200/36000. Ripple held first resistance at 6560/90 last week as predicted & holding 6300 so far this week. A break below the 100 week moving average at 6000/5900 obviously adds pressure for a retest of the low at 5600/5500. I would not bet on this holding on the next test & a break lower is an obvious sell signal. Look for a test of the last big swing low at 5100/5080. Again I doubt this will hold for long & a break below here is a disaster for bulls. Prices could go in to free fall!!! Gains are likely to be limited & I doubt we will beat resistance at 6560/90. A break higher however meets a sell opportunity at 7350/7450. Stop above 7550. A break higher is a nice medium term buy signal. Buy & hold!! Ethereum tests first resistance at 2800/2820 & holding here as I write. Shorts need stops above 2870. A break higher targets 2920, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3000/3050. Shorts at 2800/2820 target 2660/20, perhaps as far as 2570/50. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Shiba Inu price consolidation set for a bullish breakout with 28% appreciation

Shiba Inu price consolidation set for a bullish breakout with 28% appreciation

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.02.2022 15:56
Shiba Inu is seeing lower highs and lower lows compressing price action around $0.00002179. SHIB price is next set for a bullish breakout with several tailwinds present in equities. Expect for SHIB bulls to lift price action back above the 200-day SMA, potentially gaining 24%. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been stuck in consolidation since January 22 with lower highs and higher lows, punching in both buyers and sellers towards each other with the scene set for a breakout. From the looks of it, that will be a bullish breakout, supported by tailwinds from global equities being on the front foot, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Expect bulls to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the process, and try to reach $0.00002782, the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SHIB bullish breakout holding 28% gains Shiba Inu price may have had its low for the year after hitting $0.00001730 on January 22. Since then, the price has shifted a bit sideways around $0.00002170, with lower highs and higher lows going for consolidation between buyers and sellers. The price in SHIB is so condensed now that a breakout is due. As global markets are on the front foot and risk assets are leading the charge, these tailwinds will spin-off towards cryptocurrencies and set the stage for a bullish breakout towards $0.00002782 as target. SHIB price will, in that process, take out the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002562, which does not hold much importance seeing it only got breached on one occasion. Bulls will instead want to look out for $0.00002782, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level and is an essential indicator that there might be an uptrend in the making. More upside will depend on how the tailwinds behave as the 55-day SMA looks quite heavy around $0.00003000. SHIB/USD daily chart Alternatively, the consolidation could still see a bearish breakout, with bears trapping bulls and running price action back to $0.00001730, or possibly even $0.00001500 back down onto the monthly S1 support level. The reason for the bearish breakout could come from very choppy economic data that could start to point to a global recession with elevated prices and job numbers worsening again. That would trigger a global risk-off wave that could put cryptocurrencies on the backfoot.
Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) About To Make Decisions...

Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) About To Make Decisions...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.02.2022 08:36
The Bank of England and the ECB will announce their monetary policy decisions today. They could reinforce the contrast in policy between these central banks and trigger a significant reassessment in the FX market. The ECB is expected to confirm its plans to halt its emergency balance sheet buying programme in March. But it will keep the refinancing rate at zero and continue with 'regular' balance sheet purchases. The ECB is likely to try to save face after yesterday's new inflation record and show more hawkish rhetoric than we are used to. Even so, the eurozone will fall seriously behind the US and UK in its fight against inflation, which can dent the euro. The Bank of England is expected to raise its rate for the second time in this cycle from 0.25% to 0.5%. And we would not be surprised if there are hints in the official comments of a willingness to raise the rate at every subsequent meeting in the coming quarters. The overall situation could resemble the early 2000s when the Bank of England acted more aggressively than its Fed and ECB counterparts to suppress inflation. Tight monetary policy will provide the pound with a chance to get out of extreme lows where it found itself due to Brexit and the pandemic, consolidating this year in the 1.42-1.60 area in GBPUSD and a move into the 0.70-0.80 range for EURGBP.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

S&P 500 Tops The Chart, Gold Finds His Way (?), USOIL On A Straight Way?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.02.2022 09:01
XAUUSD attempts to bounce The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January. A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance. A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index. The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750. The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490. USOIL consolidates gains WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00. The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again. Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.
(FB) Meta Shares Decreases by 20%, Netflix (NFLX) Shares Goes Down As Well (-30%)

(FB) Meta Shares Decreases by 20%, Netflix (NFLX) Shares Goes Down As Well (-30%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.02.2022 14:47
Meta (FB) shares lost around 20% post-market, which appears to be an overreaction and shows how wary buyers have become of the former growth leaders, the so-called FAANG stocks. The sharp declines of former crowd favourites could result from a reassessment of the medium-term outlook, for example, due to changes in monetary policy. But they could also be the next domino effect in an impending bear market. Netflix shares lost more than 30% in a few days following a disappointing report late last month and fell 50% from their peak in late November before fumbling for support from bargain hunters. PayPal was not technically in the FAANG big league but was punished just as much, losing around 25% intraday yesterday. After Facebook, Snap (-15%) and Twitter (-7%) also took a tangential hit. In our view, these are not isolated corporate stories but manifestations of broader underline currents. And in the coming days, we will have to determine whether we see a change in the bull market leaders or the first signals of a prolonged bearish trend. In a bear market, the weakest stars are the first to fall, and then the vortex of decline attracts more and more strong participants. The first domino is meme stocks, which had fallen methodically since June when the first signals emerged that the Fed was starting to prepare the markets for a wind-down. Then we saw a peak in many high-tech stocks in November when the Fed started cutting back on buying. By this logic, the downward spiral could pull more strong stocks into a downward spiral by the time interest rates rise, which is expected in March. Looking more broadly at the Nasdaq100 index, there is a rather worrying tech analysis picture. It is once again below its 200-day moving average. The high-tech-filled Meta retreated 2.4% after the report. The S&P500 and DJIA, however, look noticeably stronger on the technical analysis side. But it is worth watching closely how the trading will go this week and whether the buyers will reverse the negative trend of the former Nasdaq favourites. If so, we see a change in the leaders in the form of a rotation in value stocks and other names affected by the pandemic. But fears that the Fed is preparing to take money out of the financial system could force market players to take money off the table by selling blue chips.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Bitcoin (BTC), (XRP) Ripple and Ethereum (ETH) Analysed

Jason Sen Jason Sen 03.02.2022 10:23
Bitcoin we wrote: edging very slowly higher but I am not convinced this is the start of a bull trend. Yesterday we reversed from the trend line - see the video. Outlook remains negative in the bear trend. Ripple seeing consolidation & narrowing ranges but I do not think this is a base building exercise. Same levels apply for today. Ethereum however is seeing a push higher. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin 3 month trend line around 39000 held the bounce - although I had thought we could make it as far as strong resistance at the 500 day moving average at 40400/40600. Above here meets 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 41400/500. We have reversed to 36900/800. Further losses target 36200/36000 then 34300/34000 before a retest of 33000/32950. Ripple held first resistance at 6560/90 last week as predicted & holding 6300 so far this week. A break below the 100 week moving average at 6000/5900 (tested as I write this morning) obviously adds pressure for a retest of the low at 5600/5500. I would not bet on this holding on the next test & a break lower is an obvious sell signal. Look for a test of the last big swing low at 5100/5080. Again I doubt this will hold for long & a break below here is a disaster for bulls. Prices could go in to free fall!!! Gains are likely to be limited & I doubt we will beat resistance at 6560/90. A break higher however meets a sell opportunity at 7350/7450. Stop above 7550. A break higher is a nice medium term buy signal. Buy & hold!! Ethereum shorts at first resistance at 2800/2820 worked perfectly as we target 2660/20, perhaps as far as 2570/50 today. Further losses are certainly possible eventually to 2520/00 & 2400/2380. On a bounce & retest of resistance, shorts at 2800/2820 need stops above 2870. A break higher targets 2920, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3000/3050. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Deer in the Headlights

Deer in the Headlights

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.02.2022 15:56
S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data keep surprising those policy makers who had been already surprised throughout 2021. Commodities though aren‘t freezing as a proverbial deer in the headlights, and once the scare of the Fed‘s short tightening cycle gets done away with, precious metals would join. In the meantime, look for silver to act on copper‘s cue, and for gold to do relatively better in risk-off settings.As for stocks, my gentle selling bias while on the lookout to enter short towards the session‘s end, hasn‘t changed since yesterday, and the new position is already profitable:(…) the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls prevailed yesterday, but would get under pressure relatively soon. The ominous lower knots say a consolidation is knocking on the door.Credit MarketsHYG repelled selling pressure, but that won‘t last – I‘m looking for lower values across the bond spectrum, coinciding with (temporary) dollar upswing. Risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersAll this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up, just waiting for a (Fed, inflation, stagflation) catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t yet wavering, but remain perched pretty high – I‘m looking for sideways to down consolidation as the bears get emboldened by the rising volume. Trying their luck soon.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. Commodities are pointing in the right direction – note the absence of sellers yesterday. How far would the USD upswing compress the red metal today? Not much, not lastingly.Bitcoin and EthereumThe narrow crypto trading range is over, and the bears are on the move – look for them to take some time before they get going towards BTC $35K.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are about to meet the bears again, and higher yields won‘t save value stocks, let alone spawn a rush to tech safety. The pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is building up, and 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and stocks will feel it. Unlike precious metals, which would reverse prior hesitation once the rate raising starts in earnest, and start going up. And commodities? These aren‘t waiting for anyone‘s greenlight. And neither should you in life – what I would like to bring to your attention, is that volatility is rising, and it thus makes sense to pare back the overall portfolio exposure and position sizing while taking only the strongest of opportunities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Seasonality favors another wave up

Seasonality favors another wave up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 03.02.2022 21:05
However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
AMC Entertainment Holdings Stock News and Forecast: AMC nearly doubles debt raise

AMC Entertainment Holdings Stock News and Forecast: AMC nearly doubles debt raise

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.02.2022 16:35
AMC stock slumped yesterday as debt raise news was digested. AMC now nearly doubles the raise from $500 million to $950 million. AMC is down over 40% in the last month and 43% for 2022. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) stock is back on the news wires the last few days, but unfortunately for holders it has not been well received. AMC stock put in three consecutive green days before slumping over 8% on Wednesday. Risk aversion returned, but AMC also announced it was raising more debt to refinance its existing debt. The stock closed at $15.42 for an 8.5% loss on the day. AMC Stock News This morning AMC has nearly doubled its debt offering from $500 million to $950 million. There is also see a bit more detail on the offering. It is to carry a 7.5% interest rate and expires in 2029. The funds will be used to retire existing debt at 10.5% expiring in 2025. The extra $450 million sees AMC also redeeming some notes at 15-17% due in 2026. So AMC is basically remortgaging at a lower rate. This will reduce its interest payments. AMC needs to do this, however, as it carries too much debt. The company has $5.4 billion in long-term debt. AMC has about $1.6 billion in cash, but it spends nearly $100 million per quarter on debt repayments. So remortgaging makes sense, but it is not exactly comforting. CEO Adam Aron has been looking for ways to improve the financial position of the company, and investors baulked at more share issuances. This was the obvious next step but comes a bit later than optimal. Junk bond yields had reached a record low during the summer. The rate of 7.5% is more or less in line with the sector. CCC high yield corporate bonds are currently yielding on average 8.3%. This is up from 6% during the summer. Moody's reacted positively and changed its outlook to positive. AMC Stock Forecast For now, AMC shares are holding the support at $14.54, but risk aversion is growing after FB earnings last night and a suprisngly hawkish Bank of England this morning. Equity markets will suffer with high risk names getting hit the most. Expect $14.54 to break with the next support at $12.22. A break here and the lure of $10 will be obvious. Only beaking $21.04 ends this curent bearish trend. AMC daily chart
Gold Ended January Glued to $1,800. Will It Ever Detach?

Gold Ended January Glued to $1,800. Will It Ever Detach?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.02.2022 16:57
  Gold didn’t shine in January. The struggle could continue, although the more distant future looks more optimistic for the yellow metal. That was quick! January has already ended. Welcome to February! I hope that this year has started well for you. For gold, the first month of 2022 wasn’t particularly good. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost about $11 of its value, or less than 1%, during January. This is the bad side of the story. The ugly side is that gold wasn’t able to maintain its position above $1,800, even though geopolitical risks intensified, while inflation soared to the highest level in 40 years! The yellow metal surpassed the key level in early January and stayed above this level for most of the time, even rallying above $1,840 in the second half of the month. But gold couldn’t hold out and plunged at the end of January, triggered by a hawkish FOMC meeting. However, there is also a good side. Gold is still hovering around $1,800 despite the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and all the hawkish expectations about the US monetary policy in 2022. The Fed signaled the end of tapering of quantitative easing by March, the first hike in the federal funds rate in the same month, and the start of quantitative tightening later this year. Meanwhile, in the last few weeks, the markets went from predicting two interest rate hikes to five. Even more intriguing, and perhaps encouraging as well, is that the real interest rates have increased last month, rising from -1% to -0.6%. Gold is usually negatively correlated with the TIPS yields, but this time it stayed afloat amid rising rates.   Implications for Gold What does gold’s behavior in January imply for its 2022 outlook? Well, I must admit that I expected gold’s performance to be worse. Last month showed that gold simply don’t want to either go down (or up), but it still prefers to go sideways, glued to the $1,800 level. The fact that strengthening expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle and rising real interest rates didn’t plunge gold prices makes me somewhat more optimistic about gold’s future. However, I still see some important threats to gold. First of all, some investors are still underpricing how hawkish the Fed could become to combat inflation. Hence, the day of reckoning could still be ahead of us. You see, just today, the Bank of England hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points, although almost half of the policymakers wanted to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. Second, the market seems to be biased downward, with lower and lower peaks since August 2020. Having said that, investors should remember that what the Fed says it will do and what it ends up doing are often very different. When the Fed says it will be dovish, it will be dovish. But when the Fed says it will be hawkish, it says so. This is because a monetary tightening could be painful for asset valuations and all the debtors, including Uncle Sam. The US stock market already saw significant losses in January. As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 Index lost a few hundred points last month, marking the worst decline since the beginning of the pandemic. Thus, the Fed won’t risk recession in its fight with inflation, especially if it peaks this year, and would try to engineer a soft-landing. Hence, the Fed could reverse its stance relatively soon, especially that it’s terribly late with its tightening. However, as long as the focus is on monetary policy tightening, gold is likely to struggle within its tight range. Some policymakers and economists have argued that the emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic is more like a postwar demobilization and conversion to a civilian industry than a normal business cycle. White House economists have compared the current picture to the rapid increases in 1947, caused by the end of price controls in conjunction with supply chain problems and pent-up demand after the war (“Historical Parallels to Today’s Inflationary Episode”, Council of Economic Advisers, July 6, 2021). The problem with this analogy is that it is only one instance from more than 70 years ago. More recent and more frequent inflation episodes have generally been ended by a recession or a mid-cycle slowdown. Price pressures have an internal momentum of their own and tend to intensify rather than lessen as the business cycle becomes more mature and the margin of spare capacity shrinks in all markets. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

How the Fed Will Affect Gold? Let's Take A Look Back...

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 04.02.2022 14:47
  Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements. First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay. Second, quantitative tightening. Soon after the end of asset purchases, the Fed will begin shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. As the chart below shows, it has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, reaching about $9 trillion, or about 36% of the country’s GDP. It’s so gigantic that even Powell admitted during his January press conference that “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be.” Captain Obvious attacked again! In contrast to tapering, which just reduces additions to the Fed’s holdings, quantitative tightening will shrink the balance sheet. How much? It’s hard to say. Last time, during QT from 2017 to 2019, the Fed started unloading $10 billion in assets per month, gradually lifting the cap to $50 billion. Given that inflation is now much higher, and the Fed has greater confidence in the economic recovery, the scale of reduction would probably be higher. The QT will create upward pressure on interest rates, which could be negative for the gold market. However, QT will be a very gradual and orderly process. Instead of selling assets directly, the US central bank will stop reinvestment of proceeds as securities run off. As we can read in “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”, The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account. What’s more, the previous case of QT wasn’t detrimental to gold, as the chart below shows. The price of gold started to rally in late 2018 and especially later in mid-2019. Third, the hiking cycle. In March, the Fed is going to start increasing the federal funds rate. According to the financial markets, the US central bank will enact five interest rate hikes this year, raising the federal funds rate to the range of 1.25-1.50%. Now, there are two narratives about American monetary policy in 2022. According to the first, we are witnessing a hawkish revolution within the Fed, as it would shift its monetary stance in a relatively short time. The central bank will “double tighten” (i.e., it will shrink its balance sheet at the same time as hiking rates), and it will do it in a much more aggressive way than after the Great Recession. Such decisive moves will significantly raise the bond yields, which will hit gold prices. However, in this scenario, the Fed’s aggressive actions will eventually lead to the inversion of the yield curve and later to recession, which should support the precious metals market. On the other hand, some analysts point out that central bankers are all talk and – given their dovish bias – act less aggressively than they promise, chickening out in the face of the first stock market turbulence. They also claim that all the Fed’s actions won’t be enough to combat inflation and that monetary conditions will remain relatively loose. For example, Stephen Roach argues that “the Fed is so far behind [the curve] that it can’t even see the curve.” Indeed, the real federal funds rate is deeply negative (around -7%), as the chart below shows; and even if inflation moderates to 3.5% while the Fed conducts four hikes, it will remain well below zero (about -2%), providing some support for gold prices. Which narrative is correct? Well, there are grains of truth in both of them. However, I would like to remind you that what really matters for the markets is the change or direction, not the level of a variable. Hence, the fact that real interest rates are to stay extremely low doesn’t guarantee that gold prices won’t decline in a response to the hiking cycle. Actually, as the chart above shows, the upward reversal in the real interest rates usually plunges gold prices. Given that real rates are at a record low, a normalization is still ahead of us. Hence, unless inflation continues to rise, bond yields are likely to move up, while gold – to move down. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Smelling Blood

Smelling Blood

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.02.2022 15:58
S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates – the sentiment called for a bad non-farm payrolls number today. Understandably so given Wednesday‘s preview, and the figure would just highlight how desperately behind the inflation curve the Fed is, what kind of economy it would be tightening into, and shine more light on its manouevering room for Mar FOMC.Fun times ahead for the bears, and the S&P 500 short profits can go on growing – the ride isn‘t over: If tech – in spite of the great earnings Amazon move – gets clobbered this way again on the rising yields, then we could very well see even energy stocks feel the initial selling wave. Not that value stocks would be unaffected, to put it more than mildly – just check yesterday‘s poor showing of financials. Something is going to give, and soon.Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are getting slaughtered, and the downhill path is likely to continue, thanks to tech. Brace for a volatile day today.Credit MarketsHYG selling pressure made a strong return, predictably. Credit markets are leading stocks to the downside, certainly.Gold, Silver and MinersAs written yesterday, all this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up. The downswings are being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls in the end didn‘t waver, and are pushing higher already – the upside breakout can really stick.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. It would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bears didn‘t get far, and it looks like we‘re back to some chop ahead. SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting rightfully challenged again – the Fed hikes are approaching. See though how little are commodities and precious metals affected. Meanwhile the S&P 500 internals keep deteriorating. Today‘s analytical introduction is special in talking the non-farm payrolls and Fed tightening dynamic, and explains why the pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is still building up, and that 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and today‘s surprisingly strong data gives the Fed as much justification as the quickening wage inflation. I hope you enjoyed today‘s extensive analysis and yesterday‘s risk exposure observations. Have a great day ahead!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH targets $3,000

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH targets $3,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.02.2022 16:06
Ethereum price made a false break below a short-term trend line yesterday.ETH price breaks above $2,695 and is set for a run towards $3,018.This would mean 13% gains for ETH and a more favourable outlook for next week.Ethereum (ETH) price is set to book the best gains it has made for the whole of 2022, as a bullish candle has now formed on the back of a significant support level. With that move, many bears are getting hurt as they probably fell in the bear trap with the false break below the supportive short-term trend line. Expect more upside to come with global markets enjoying the rally in Amazon shares, which is spilling over into cryptocurrencies and lifting sentiment in ETH towards $3,018.ETH bulls are stabbing bears in the back with a trapEthereum price was dangling below a short-term trend line and looked quite heavy after the slippage (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-sentiments-rolls-over-as-meta-shakes-nasdaq-202202031412) from META earnings. But that markets can change their minds overnight is proven yet again, after Amazon’s earnings fueled a booster rally which we are seeing today. This has spilled over into cryptocurrencies and is lifting sentiment in ETH prices with a firm break above $2,695, squeezing out bears in the process, who went short on the false break of the trend line, and it is now just a matter of time before they close out and take their losses.ETH price is thus set for a second rally today as those bears will need to revert to the buy-side volume (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) to close and cut their losses. This will add a boost to ETH prices and could see Ethereum bulls hitting the price target at $3,018, taking out the $3,000 level, and setting the stage for next week. With that move, the red descending trend line could be broken, and with that, the downturn since December, finally (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) breaking the chances for bears and setting the stage for a possible longer-term uptrend.ETH/USD daily chartNevertheless, there are still some earnings on the docket for today that could surprise to the downside and see those tailwinds (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-markets-to-favor-bears-soon-202202020838) as quickly fade as they came. Expect that with that lack of support, ETH price will collapse back to $2,695 and start to weigh further on the bulls. Should that spiral into equities, pushing them firmly in the red, and impacting safe haven flow – expect a dip back towards $2,600.
Ukrainian Tensions and Oil - Is Russia Really the Bad Guy?

Ukrainian Tensions and Oil - Is Russia Really the Bad Guy?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.02.2022 18:04
While everyone is criticizing Russia, it’s easy to follow the US ‘savior’ narrative. However, what if we looked at what’s happening with oil in mind?Disclaimer to today’s article: I’m providing this analysis from a pure energy-focused perspective. I do not claim it represents THE right view, but rather one of those that won’t be as visible in the mainstream. It is interesting to add different views as pieces of the same puzzle. I am looking forward to reading yours in the comments!Picture Source: MemedroidSeveral port facilities in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have been the target of cyberattacks, prompting the judicial authorities to investigate the suspicions of extortion of funds at the expense of German operators in the oil sector. Indeed, it would appear that this series of computer hackings that began several days ago primarily concerns oil terminals. This is disrupting deliveries in several major European ports against a backdrop of soaring energy prices.After jumping the day before, thanks to the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar induced by ECB President Lagarde, oil prices continued to rise during the European session on Friday. Consequently, the fall in the greenback came on top of the recovery in demand, the fall in US crude inventories and the disruptions in supply to boost the price of black gold on the climb, the two crude benchmarks evolving above the psychological mark of 90 dollars a barrel, galvanized by solid demand and tensions on the offer coming from (geo-)political risks.Who is Provoking Who?The situation is rather complex on the geopolitical scene, with the US claiming that Russia is planning an invasion in Ukraine, whereas the US under NATO cover sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. The question that may arise here is: who is provoking who? So far, we haven’t seen Russia placing troops in Mexico, on the border with the United States. On the other hand, the Biden administration may encounter difficulties in accepting that the Kremlin can agree to various partnerships with its European neighbors, especially regarding more favorable energy supplies. Instead, it’s in the US interest to weaken those diplomatic relations, potentially leading to additional partnerships that may arise between the EU and Putin.And as we see the US-led narrative getting through the Western mainstream media with more aggressive, suspicious, and tense tones towards Russia, this obviously has the effect of pouring some oil on the Russian-Ukrainian fire. Furthermore, the US needs reasons to demonstrate that NATO is still alive and relevant while a number of countries are now questioning their own participation in the US-led military organisation created in 1949, even going so far as to show some doubts regarding its current motivations.Isolating the Russian BearBy maintaining a hostile tone towards Russia’s intentions, the US is consequently trying to isolate the Russian bear and push their European partners to blindly follow the “official narrative” (as the EU being part of NATO), which could possibly lead to new sanctions on Russia, the latter being able to retaliate by using its energy assets and capacities to deprive the EU of the Russian supplies, which currently on the gas side represent between 30% and 40% of total gas imports for Europe. Then, as a result, the Americans could start exporting more gas into Europe via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping – which again could benefit their energy-led commercial balance – the Europeans thus becoming the losing players in this game.As an example, we saw this week that a tanker loaded with LNG from the US will arrive at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) at the end of this month, since Poland has LNG import capabilities which could be used to deliver US gas to Ukraine. Apparently, this is the second time (after the first one took place two years ago) that such gas deliveries are made by PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, in cooperation with ERU (their strategic trading partner on the Ukrainian market).Actually, Ukraine suspended imports of Russian gas at the end of 2015. After relying on Russian gas imports for decades, they currently increasingly depend on imports from Europe. Since Ukraine has no LNG import capabilities, such US gas deliveries have been organized via a pipeline from the Polish terminal (through re-gasified LNG).WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Brent Crude Oil (BRJH22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart)In summary, geopolitics is always complex because it relies on individual economic and strategic interests of countries. The readings also depend on different views, and since there is always a lot of noise, it often helps to take some steps back in order to analyze the global situation from a different angle.Have a nice weekend! And remember to chime in on the conversation.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bitcoin is gaining momentum

Bitcoin is gaining momentum

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.02.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is up 9% over the past week, ending at around $41,700. Ethereum is up 15%. Altcoins also woke up from hibernation and grew stronger than the market: from 5.8% (Binance Coin) to 17.3% (Solana).Over the same period, the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 11.2%, up to $1.99 trillion.The primary growth of the crypto market last week came on Friday when bitcoin at the end of the day soared by 10% in a few hours. The increase was not prevented even by strong data on the US labor market, which came out a couple of hours before the jump.It is worth noting that the Nonfarm Payrolls can force the Fed to move faster to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, the yield of 10-year Treasuries jumped above 1.93%, hitting new two-year highs, and this could soon lead to sales in the stock market. If cryptocurrencies manage to resist and continue to grow, this will be a serious trend reversal order. Just like on Friday, when investors decided to buy BTC in order to protect investments from inflation.Since then, Bitcoin has already added 17%, moving into a phase of an active uptrend. Technically, the first cryptocurrency broke the resistance of the descending corridor. Accelerating growth and steady buying throughout the weekend indicate a strong bullish momentum. Cautious investors are now looking at the test of the 50-day moving average. Previously, repeatedly fixing above this line preceded a multi-month uptrend.Potentially, this will also be lost now. Therefore, some players consider this impulse as an important first signal of a recovery in demand for risky assets, despite fears of a rate increase.Meanwhile, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that a number of governments could outlaw cryptocurrencies. The government of the Russian Federation is considering introducing a tax on miners of at least 15%. According to the authorities, the tax on all participants in the crypto market can bring up to 1 trillion rubles to the treasury. In the meantime, the Fed has presented the Digital Dollar White Paper, but the issue of its future launch has not yet been resolved.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Regains Momentum

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Regains Momentum

John Benjamin John Benjamin 07.02.2022 09:10
USDCHF bounces higherThe US dollar rallied after January’s nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The latest pullback found support near the previous low at 0.9180.A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. A close above 0.9275 would force short-term sellers to cover and pave the way for a broader rebound.Then the double top (0.9360) on the daily chart would be the next target. On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the pair to 0.9110.USDCAD awaits breakoutThe loonie weakened after a rise in Canada’s unemployment rate in January. The greenback has previously come to a halt at the daily resistance (1.2800).The retracement then found bids at the resistance-turned-support at 1.2650, suggesting traders’ strong interest in keeping the two-week-long rally intact. The RSI has inched into the overbought territory and may drive the price lower with short-term profit-taking.A bullish breakout may extend the uptrend to December’s peak at 1.2950.GER 40 lacks supportThe Dax 40 drifts lower after the ECB’s hawkish turn. The recent rebound met stiff selling pressure at 15740. Then a fall below 15350 indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side.A bearish MA cross suggests an acceleration to the downside and may attract more bears. The demand area around 14850 is a critical floor on the daily chart. Its breach could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls need to reclaim 15500 in order to turn sentiment around.
Rally Time

Rally Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.02.2022 15:59
S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC bears to go extinct beyond $53,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.02.2022 16:06
Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    
Are You Thinking the Dollar Will Collapse? That’s False Hope

Are You Thinking the Dollar Will Collapse? That’s False Hope

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 07.02.2022 15:49
  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bubble stocks...

Recovery Of Gold (XAUUSD), Will NZDUSD Meet The Sell-off? UK 100 Keeps Quite High Values

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.02.2022 08:48
XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.
Bears Are Watching Crude Oil (WTIC) Carefully As It's Very Close To $91

Bears Are Watching Crude Oil (WTIC) Carefully As It's Very Close To $91

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.02.2022 15:34
S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. Bonds are in the driver‘s seat, and the dollar is also cautious – unless these move profoundly either way, the yesterday described S&P 500 reprieve can still play out even if: (…) The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations. As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. The 4,460s are still holding while commodities look to be consolidating today. As the dollar is up somewhat, bonds would have to face opening headwinds – the effect upon tech would be telling. I‘m still looking for downswing rejection in stocks while precious metals would hold up better than commodities today. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook As stated yesterday, S&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future. Credit Markets HYG gave up the opening strength, and the bulls are likely to get under pressure soon – it‘s that yesterday‘s session lacked volume, thus interest of the buyers. The clock is ticking. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep refusing to make lower lows – that‘s the most important aspect of their tempered ascent. And price gains would accelerate later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – oil stocks would have to turn decidedly down first. Copper Copper is getting cautious, and would probably decline should the commodities pause continue – no matter what other base metals would do at the same time. Still, that‘s internal strength in the waiting, similarly to the precious metals strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum The crypto break higher ran out of steam, warning of a rickety ride ahead – not just in cryptos. Things can still get volatile. Summary S&P 500 bulls haven‘t lost the opportunity to force higher prices, but need to repel the upcoming intraday flush that can come today, and possibly even continue tomorrow. Yes, instead of seizing upon the chance, bonds have merely paused, creating a perfect environment for whipsawish trading today – I‘m still expecting Friday‘s lows to hold on a closing basis, but I‘m not ruling out a fake breakdown first. The very short-term outlook is simply choppy until the bond market upswing kicks in in earnest. And that would provide more fuel to precious metals and commodities while pressuring the dollar – seems though we would have to wait for a while to see that happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Payrolls Release: Gold Reacted Quickly And Decreased... And Got Back In The Game A Moment Later!

Payrolls Release: Gold Reacted Quickly And Decreased... And Got Back In The Game A Moment Later!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 08.02.2022 16:42
  The latest employment report strongly supports the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Surprisingly, gold has shown remarkable resilience against it so far. What a surprise! The US labor market added 467,000 jobs last month. As the chart below shows, the number is below December’s figure (+510,000) but much above market expectations – MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted only 150,000 added jobs. Thus, the report reinforces the optimistic view of the US economy’s strength, especially given that the surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls came despite the disruption to consumer-facing businesses from the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.9% in December to 4% in January, as the chart above shows. However, it was accompanied by a rise in both the labor force participation rate (from 61.9% to 62.2%) and the employment-population ratio (from 59.5% to 59.7%). Last but not least, average hourly earnings have jumped 5.7% over the last 12 months, as you can see in the next chart. It indicates that wage inflation has intensified recently, despite the surge in COVID-19 cases that was expected by some analysts to dent demand for workers. Hence, the January employment report will cement the hawkish case for the Fed. Rising wages will add to the argument for decisive hiking of interest rates, while the surprisingly strong payrolls will strengthen the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.   Implications for Gold What does the latest employment report imply for the gold market? The unexpectedly high payrolls should be negative for the yellow metal. However, while gold prices initially plunged below $1,800, they rebounded quickly, returning above its key level, as the chart below shows. Gold’s resilience in the face of a strong jobs report is noteworthy and quite encouraging. After all, the report strengthened the US dollar and boosted market expectations of a 50-basis point hike in the federal funds rate in March (from 2.6% one month ago to more than 14% now). Such a big move is unlikely, but the point is that financial conditions are tightening without waiting for the Fed’s actual actions. In the past, gold disliked strong economic reports and rising bond yields and showed a negative correlation with nonfarm payrolls, but not this time. More generally, although long-term fundamentals have turned more bearish in recent months, gold has remained stuck at $1,800. However, last week, two factors could have supported gold prices. The first was rising volatility in the equity market. The S&P 500 Index dropped almost 500 points, or 10%, in January, as the chart below shows. Although it has recovered somewhat, it still remains substantially below the top, with the tech sector experiencing weakness. On Thursday, the shares of Meta, Facebook’s parent company, plunged more than 20%. The second potentially bullish driver was last Thursday’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council. The central bank of the Eurozone was more hawkish than expected. Christine Lagarde acknowledged inflationary risks and said that she had become more concerned with the recent surge in inflation. According to initial estimates, the annual inflation rate in the euro area amounted to 5.1% in January 2022, the highest since the common currency was created. Lagarde also backed off her previous guidance that the interest rate hike was “very unlikely” in 2022. The ECB’s pivot – the central bank opening the door for the first rate increase since 2011 – boosted the euro against the greenback. The bottom line is that gold has made itself comfortable around $1,800 and simply doesn’t want – or is not ready – to go away in either direction, at least not yet. The battle between bulls and bears is still on. I’m afraid that, given the relatively aggressive monetary and financial tightening, the sellers will win this clash and gold will drop before the bulls can regain control over the market. However, recent gold’s resilience indicates that there is an underlying bid in the markets and bulls are not giving up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

February 8th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.02.2022 20:48
Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Will Sandbox (SAND) Reach $5 In The Near Future?

Will Sandbox (SAND) Reach $5 In The Near Future?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.02.2022 16:08
Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Did Cryptocurrencies Need A Rest Yesterday? Bitcoin Increased By 0.3%, ETH Lost 1.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.02.2022 08:27
On Tuesday, Bitcoin showed a growing momentum at the beginning of the day and reached five-week highs above $45,000. After a short-term rise above this level, a corrective decline began in the middle of the day. The benchmark cryptocurrency was losing more than $2,000 despite the rise in stock indices. There was a sharp rebound towards the end of the day and closed the day almost unchanged as a result. Recovery in institutional demand for stocks late in the day on Tuesday helped Bitcoin stay above the 50-day moving average as well. Continued buying on the decline to this level will keep the technical picture bullish as upside momentum develops to $49-50K. A sharp dip lower today or tomorrow will raise the issue of a false break and bring the sellers back into play, heading for $37-38K. It became known that at the end of last week, the Canadian exchange fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF bought 1.75 thousand BTC in two days, which could lead to a sharp increase in prices. In addition, Valkyrie Investments has received approval from the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the shares of companies that receive at least 50% of their profits through mining. At the same time, the US authorities confiscated bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex crypto exchange in 2016 for $3.6 billion and detained those involved in the hack. The Russian Federation government approved the concept of the Ministry of Finance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies: a joint bill should be ready by February 18. Overall, Bitcoin gained 0.3% on Tuesday, ending the day around $44,200. Ethereum was down 1.3%, while the other leading altcoins in the top ten were mixed from a 5.7% decline (Binance Coin) to an increase of 5.4% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 1.2% over the day to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index increased by 0.8% over the day, to 40%.  
Stocks: Is $4,500 The Current S&P 500's "Target"

Stocks: Is $4,500 The Current S&P 500's "Target"

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 08.02.2022 15:33
  The S&P 500 index remains close to the 4,500 level following last week’s retreat. Was this just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 0.37% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its recent rally, as it fell to the local low of 4,451.50 on Friday. The market found a short-term bottom after reversing from last Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower. We will likely see more consolidation along the 4,500 level. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,540, market by the recent local highs. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 continues to trade below the November-January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Weaker The technology Nasdaq 100 index followed a similar path last week, as it retraced some of the rally. It remains relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The support level is at 13,800-14,000, and the resistance level is at 15,000-15,200. Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line a week ago before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. It’s trading along the 4,500 level after backing from the Wednesday’s high of 4,586. The market remains close to the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the decline from last week’s Wednesday’s local high. The market will likely extend its consolidation, as investors will be waiting for the Thursday’s Consumer price index release. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely trade within a consolidation ahead of the important Thursday’s consumer inflation number release. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

EURUSD Keeps Plain Line, US 30 With A Bounce, GBPUSD Gains A Bit

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.02.2022 08:51
EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.
NIO - Will It Support The Rise Of Chinese Tech Stocks?

NIO - Will It Support The Rise Of Chinese Tech Stocks?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.02.2022 16:08
NIO stock gets a strong rating from latest Barclays research. NIO remains bearish and is down 25% year to date. NIO and other Chinese EV names remain in growth mode as the latest delivery data showed. NIO stock remains mired as it ended Monday virtually flat. The stock is down over 40% from three months ago as Chinese names see international investors flee on regulatory concerns. NIO Stock News It has been a turbulent time for holders of Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba's ANT Group spin-off set things off. Then the DIDI delisting not long after its IPO added to woes. Then a host of regulatory crackdowns was the final straw for international investors who bailed out of the names en masse. This is despite the EV names in particular remaining on track from a growth perspective as all have posted strong delivery data. While January deliveries slowed from December, the yearly growth rates still are impressive. January is traditionally the slowest month of the year in China though due to the lunar new year. NIO for example delivered 7.9% fewer vehicles in January versus December. On a yearly basis, January deliveries were 33.6% higher. This was replicated across many other Chinese EV names. Now Barclays has picked up the theme as it issues a bullish note this morning. "We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage." Barclays put a $34 price target on the shares. This does highlight the potential growth potential of Chinese tech stocks and the EV space in particular. We question whether investors will reenter, however, having been let down previously. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... Ok, let's not have another George W. Bush moment! The point is a valid one. It will likely take more than analyst upgrades to tempt investors back to the space. Goldman, the king of investment banks, has previously been strongly bullish on NIO and to no avail. It will take a series of strong earnings and relative calm in terms of regulatory concerns to eventually tempt investors back. NIO Stock Forecast The recent spike lower did fill the gap from back in October 2020. The market just loves to fill gaps. We also note this spike lower created a shooting star candle, a possible reversal signal. There is already a bullish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as shown. The area around $27.34 is the first resistance. Getting back above indicates the bearish trend may finally be slowing. That would then bring NIO into a range-bound zone from $27 to $32. Only breaking $33.80 from January 3 ends the downtrend. Support is at $14 from the strong volume profile. Look for an RSI breakout as that could signal more gains. The RSI has been shrinking in range and may test an upside breakout. NIO 1-day chart
Brent (Crude Oil) Has Gained 20% Since The Beginning Of The Year. The Brent Price For Today - The 7-year High

Brent (Crude Oil) Has Gained 20% Since The Beginning Of The Year. The Brent Price For Today - The 7-year High

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 09.02.2022 12:30
While Oil prices have seen significant movements in recent times, with Brent gaining over 20% from the start of 2022 and reaching the highest level since october 2014, we are beginning to see a slight pullback despite an unexpected inventory drop shown in yesterday's API report. Talks surrounding the Iran nuclear deal, which could bring around 2 mpd supply into the markets, have helped prices retreat while easing of tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation have also boosted sentiment. On the other hand, while these are positive signs the situation remains uncertain as any further escalation could see supply significantly disrupted and as the Iran deal remains slightly out of reach for the time being. OPEC appears to be nearing production capacity and optimistic forecasts point to a rise in demand throughout the year so unless some progress is made among other producers, those supply concerns could translate into record prices and subsequent impacts on a variety of sectors. Today’s EIA inventory report could prove to be important for short term price action as a confirmation of the API report could potentially increase concerns regarding short term price stability.   Stock markets continue to recover as investors await earning reports from Uber and Disney European stock markets are extending the upward move after a positive Asian session and following a higher close of US indices despite some general uncertainty seen across markets. Stock prices have been increasingly volatile on the back of recent geopolitical tensions and some surprising earnings reports released during this earning season. Fiscal and monetary policy has also greatly impacted investor sentiment but many appear to be reassured for the time being as we see a continuation of the recent rebound across global markets while investors await today’s key earnings announcements from major companies like Uber technologies and Disney among others. While it remains to be seen whether these will manage to meet expectations, the situation remains quite fragile with many markets experiencing significant volatility and as several central bankers are also due to speak today.   Barratt Developments strong results boost investor confidence Barratt Developments report exceeded expectations and pointed to a stronger recovery from covid levels with over 18,000 home constructions and strong revenue figures. The company expects this positive performance to continue throughout 2022 and despite some uncertainty surrounding the global economic environment, the general market situation appears to favor such optimistic performance. It remains to be seen if the company will manage to successfully implement its strategy or if it will encounter issues driven by record inflation and potential supply chain disruptions.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos to retrace before the bull run

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.02.2022 16:19
Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition
Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock News and Forecast: And just like that, it's back

Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock News and Forecast: And just like that, it's back

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.02.2022 16:19
Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

More Profits Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.02.2022 15:54
S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields – it seems that the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. We have quite a way to go still on the upside – 4,600s are waiting, and it remains to be seen how far in the 4,600 – 4,700 range stocks make it. Consumer discretionaries are outperforming staples, and energy isn‘t cratering – the brief commodities reprieve (don‘t look though at copper, which seems preparing a nice upside move, or crude oil‘s shallow dip) supports the stock market advance. Precious metals are rising strongly – both thanks to inflation expectations not budging much, and the expected copper upturn. Not even cryptos are plunging. The open S&P 500 and oil profits can keep on rising. Looks like the markets are slowly positioning for yet another hot inflation number tomorrow. How many times lately have there been expectations that high CPI data would sink stocks – but these rallied instead? Thursday is likely to turn out similarly – I‘m not looking for the stock market rally to top out tomorrow. The Mar FOMC is still quite a few weeks away, 50bp rate hike fears notwithstanding. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have made the opening step, and look ready to extend gains. Even volume has returned a little, but importantly, sellers were nowhere to be seen – and that‘ll likely be the case today as well. Credit Markets HYG couldn‘t keep the opening gains, but junk bonds still did better than their quality counterparts. Anyway, the HYG weakness looks likely to be reversed (to some degree) today. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – and miners strength is confirming that. When inflation turns out more stubborn than generally appreciated, and bond yields don‘t catch up nearly enough, precious metals would like that. Love that. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – this correction is more likely to be in time than in price. Copper Copper is clearly refusing to decline – its upswing looks to be a question of shortening time only. Likewise the commodities reprieve would be reversed shortly. The red metal‘s price action coupled with precious metals one, is very nice to see – for the fruits it would bring. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t weakening – they look to be pausing in the upswing only. How long would they need to consolidate before continuing the attempt to go higher? Summary S&P 500 bulls have a firm grip on higher prices – we‘re looking at another green day today. And if it‘s accompanied by the turning bonds, then all the better. Tech has risen, oil is a little down while sectoral breadth improves – the conditions are in place for S&P 500 to overcome 4,600. The risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run out of time, and the Mar FOMC is still far away. Upgraded rate hike prospects are being increasingly absorbed by the markets, and stocks don‘t look spooked at the moment. The bears‘ time would still come though, but let‘s first enjoy the gains our timely positioning is bringing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
What Will US CPI Trigger And How Will Fed Deal With It?

What Will US CPI Trigger And How Will Fed Deal With It?

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 10.02.2022 12:32
Inflation has been a key topic in the markets in recent times with several readings reaching the highest levels in decades and central banks trying to find a balance between adjusting their monetary and fiscal policy while stimulating the post pandemic economic recovery. One of the consequences of these policies has been a staggering increase in prices of most goods, which has become a serious issue of concern for central bankers as well as regular consumers who have seen their everyday expenses increase noticeably. Today’s CPI and Core CPI readings from the US could be highly impactful as they may dictate whether the Federal reserve will decide to take action in the upcoming meeting since as of now, five rate hikes are expected and several other central banks have already taken measures to contrast general inflation. Clearly there is a fine balance between sustaining the economy and exacerbating widespread inflation which may ultimately hinder stability across markets and today’s report could play a crucial role in that process of analysis. The US Dollar may react favorably to a higher than expected reading as it could almost seal the deal on an upcoming rate hike, while stocks could be impacted by prospects of less liquidity.   Watches of Switzerland report paints optimistic picture Watches of Switzerland's report showed a continued growth of its revenue and return on capital with significant gain in market share as the company plans to continue investing for growth and to enhance its leading position in the UK and as it attempts to become a clear leader in the US. The easing of restrictions and improving economic conditions have certainly helped but with potential supply issues and record inflation levels, we could be seeing a slowdown in the short-mid term if these issues are not approached carefully. Astrazeneca posts strong results but remains cautious Astrazeneca's results showed a total revenue increase of 41% to $37,417m including COVID-19 vaccine revenues. The company managed to achieve 14 positive Phase 3 readouts across nine medicines in 2021, and 22 regulatory approvals and authorisations in major markets which further boosted its market dominance in the field. Furthermore, the company expects CER of a high-teens percentage increase in total revenue and a mid-to-high twenties percentage increase in Core EPS for 2022. Despite this, while it will certainly benefit from a variety of innovations it provides, it may see a decline in its profits as revenue from vaccines potentially declines throughout the mid to long term.  
Crude Oil: WTI Fluctates A Bit, Now It's Slightly Above $90

Crude Oil: WTI Fluctates A Bit, Now It's Slightly Above $90

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.02.2022 12:13
WTI crude oil has lost around 3% since the start of the week, bouncing back to $88.4 from $91.2 at the beginning of the week. The observed pullback looks like a technical correction to remove local overheating. This correction comes against a relatively bullish background. Yesterday's data marked a new drop in inventories, both commercial and strategic reserves. The Biden administration has said it may accelerate sales from reserves. Perhaps these comments were a formal excuse for profit-taking in the market. However, the start of these sales came with a two-month rally. The government's intention to sell off reserves may even have contributed to the rise in prices. The desire to bring prices down is hurting US production ramp-up plans. Aggressive support for alternative energy has made the hydrocarbon industry unattractive to banks. As a result, we are seeing a much slower production recovery than in the recovery periods of the last decade. The number of rigs in operation is rising methodically, but it seems that new wells are only marginally offsetting spent ones. Also, OPEC has repeatedly suggested that the industry's severe underinvestment during the pandemic makes it impossible to ramp up production quickly now. Despite a favourable price environment, the cartel has not picked up quotas in recent months. It is also worth mentioning that countries are not imposing new travel restrictions but are loosening them more and more, supporting energy demand. Also, commodity prices are supported by political pressure on Russia, which threatens gas supplies to Europe and further fuels price increases. Locally, oil remains vulnerable to a corrective pullback after a more than two-month rally with potential targets at $84.5 for WTI - a 23.6% pullback from the rally and the October peak area. A deeper retracement scenario suggests a pullback to $80.3. For Brent, the near-term target is $86-87, with a deeper retracement to $83.
AUDUSD Gets Rid Of The Recent Resistance, EURGBP Flows Calmly And USOIL Hovers Around $90

AUDUSD Gets Rid Of The Recent Resistance, EURGBP Flows Calmly And USOIL Hovers Around $90

John Benjamin John Benjamin 10.02.2022 08:47
AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar climbs as traders wager on a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the daily chart, a break above the 30-day moving average suggests improved sentiment in the short term. The pair extended its gains after it broke the supply area around 0.7170. As sellers scramble to cover their bets, driving up bids, the rally is heading to the next resistance at 0.7210. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback with 0.7110 as the first support. EURGBP seeks support The euro consolidates gains amid mixed messages from the ECB. The pair found support at February 2020’s low at 0.8290, and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential turnaround. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8405 has put the single currency back on track. An overbought RSI led momentum traders to take profit. The current pullback is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8405) which used to be a resistance. 0.8475 is the main hurdle for the reversal to gain traction. USOIL tests support WTI crude bounces higher after the EIA reported a sharp drop in US inventories. Price action is looking to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 90.00. Sentiment remains upbeat though the bulls need to take a breather after the latest vertical ascent. 88.00 on the 20-day moving average is the immediate support. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest. A deeper retracement would test 85.00. A recovery above 92.30 could trigger momentum buying once again and resume the rally towards 95.00.
Fed Acted, Now It's Markets' Turn. What's The Next Step Of Crude Oil?

Fed Acted, Now It's Markets' Turn. What's The Next Step Of Crude Oil?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.02.2022 15:58
S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude oil is still pausing, but at the same time the bulls are readying a response. I‘m looking for continued trading in the recent range, followed by a break higher. Copper Copper is finally on the move, and the high volume speaks plenty about the buying pressure. I‘m looking for dips to be bought – I‘m not expecting a stampede of the bears taking advantage of a „shorting opportunity“. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t plunging, but the test of the bullish resolve is arriving today – let‘s see what kind of reversal it turns into. The volume looks solid, so I count on more than a daily setback as a minimum. Summary S&P 500 meets unpleasantly high inflation, which is forcing the hand of the Fed. Stocks are going to have a hard time recovering, and the bullish window of opportunity may be drastically shortened. Good to have taken profits off the table automatically through the trailing stop-loss – commodities would be more resilient. That‘s where real gains are – in real assets, as inflation is returning to the spotlight. Rightfully so as the Fed is desperately behind the curve, and precious metals need to fully get that. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The Question Is How Will Price Of Gold Act In Times Of ECB Meeting

The Question Is How Will Price Of Gold Act In Times Of ECB Meeting

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.02.2022 16:22
  Lagarde opened the door to an interest rate hike, which gave the European Central Bank a hawkish demeanor. Does it also imply more bullish gold? The ECB has awoken from its ultra-dovish lethargy. In December 2021, the central bank of the Eurozone announced that its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program would end in March 2022. Although this won’t also mean the end of quantitative easing as the ECB continues to buy assets under the APP program, the central bank will be scaling down the pace of purchases this year. Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s President, admitted it during her press conference held last week. She said: “We will stop the Pandemic Emergency Programme net asset purchases in March and then we will look at the net asset purchases under the APP.” She also left the door open for the interest rates to be raised. Of course, Lagarde did not directly signal the rate hikes. Instead, she pointed out the upside risk of inflation and acknowledged that the macroeconomic conditions have changed: We are going to use all instruments, all optionalities in order to respond to the situation – but the situation has indeed changed. You will have noticed that in the monetary policy statement that I just read, we do refer to the upside risk to inflation in our projection. So the situation having changed, we need to continue to monitor it very carefully. We need to assess the situation on the basis of the data, and then we will have to take a judgement. What’s more, Lagarde didn’t repeat her December phrase that raising interest rates in 2022 is “very unlikely”. When asked about that, she replied: as I said, I don’t make pledges without conditionalities and I did make those statements at our last press conference on the basis of the assessment, on the basis of the data that we had. It was, as all pledges of that nature, conditional. So what I am saying here now is that come March, when we have additional data, when we’ve been able to integrate in our analytical work the numbers that we have received in the last few days, we will be in a position to make a thorough assessment again on the basis of data. I cannot prejudge what that will be, but we are only a few weeks away from the closing time at which we provide the analytical work, prepare the projections for the Governing Council, and then come with some recommendations and make our decisions. It sounds very innocent, but it’s worth remembering that Lagarde is probably the most dovish central banker in the world (let’s exclude Turkish central bankers who cut interest rates amid high inflation, but they are under political pressure from Erdogan). After all, global monetary policy is tightening. For example, last week, the Bank of England hiked its main policy rate by 25 basis points and started quantitative tightening. Even the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and start raising the federal funds rate in March. In such a company, the ECB seems to be a reckless laggard. Hence, even very shy comments mean something in the case of this central bank. The markets were so impressed that they started to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, probably in an exaggerated reaction.   Implications for Gold What does the latest ECB monetary policy meeting mean for the gold market? Well, maybe it wasn’t an outright revolution, but the ECB is slowly reducing its massive monetary stimulus. Although the euro area does not face the inflationary pressure of the same kind as the US, with inflation that soared to 5% in December and to 5.1% in January (according to the initial estimate), the ECB simply has no choice. As the chart below shows, inflation in the Eurozone is the highest in the whole history of euro. Additionally, in the last quarter of 2021, the GDP of the euro area finally reached its pre-pandemic level, two quarters later than in the case of the US. Europe is back in the game. The economic recovery strengthens the hawkish camp within the ECB. All of this is fundamentally bullish for gold prices. To be clear, don’t expect that Christine Lagarde will turn into Paul Volcker and hike interest rates in a rush. Given the structural problems of the euro area, the ECB will lag behind the Fed and remain relatively more dovish. However, German bond yields have recently risen, and there is still room for further increases. If the market interest rates go up more in Europe than across the pond, which is likely given the financial tightening that has already occurred in the US, the spread between American and German interest rates could narrow further (see the chart below). The narrowing divergence between monetary policies and interest rates in the US and in the Eurozone should strengthen the euro against the greenback – and it should be supportive of gold. As the chart above shows, when the spread was widening in 2012-2018, gold was in the bear market. The yellow metal started its rally at the end of 2018, just around the peak of the spread. On the other hand, if the divergence intensifies, gold will suffer. Given that Powell is expected to hike rates as soon as March, while Lagarde may only start thinking about the tightening cycle, we may have to wait a while for the spread to peak. One thing is certain: it can get hot in March! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Bear Came And Drove Out Gold Enthusiasts, Will Silver Decrease As Well?

Bear Came And Drove Out Gold Enthusiasts, Will Silver Decrease As Well?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 10.02.2022 15:14
  The market was up, but mining stocks chose to reverse. Meanwhile, gold sent a clear signal to investors. So, when everyone buys, what happens? The gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have reversed, even though gold didn’t. The top for the former is likely in. Most developments regarding the precious metals and their immediate surroundings were a continuation of what we had seen in the previous days, but one thing was different. That one thing is particularly informative. It has trading implications, too. Without further ado, let’s jump into mining stocks. Gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of yesterday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. It’s fairer to compare GDX to GLD than to compare GDX to gold continuous futures contracts, as the former have the same closing hours, so let’s take a look at what GLD did yesterday. There was no reversal. GLD simply stopped at its declining medium-term resistance line. Also, the general stock market was up yesterday. Consequently, gold mining stocks had no good reason to decline. In fact, they “should have” rallied. They didn’t – they reversed instead. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Let’s focus on the GLD ETF chart one more time. As I wrote earlier, it approached its declining medium-term resistance line. Any small breakout here is likely to be invalidated just like what we saw previously in November 2021 and January 2022. This time, however, the volume is low, so gold might not have enough strength for a breakout, and it could decline right away. Junior mining stocks provide us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish narrative. I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, AND the situation in the USD Index together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. By “the situation in the USD Index”, I’m referring to the fact that it’s after its early-month reversal and right above its rising medium-term support line that was not successfully broken. Since the USD Index remains above its rising medium-term support line, the trend remains up. Therefore, higher – not lower – USD Index values are to be expected. All in all, it seems that gold, silver, and mining stocks are going to decline in the coming weeks (quite possibly days) and that we won’t have to wait too long for the next big decline to start. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Ripple (XRP) And Solana (SOL) Decreased, However XRP Is Still Trading 32% Higher Than A week Ago

Ripple (XRP) And Solana (SOL) Decreased, However XRP Is Still Trading 32% Higher Than A week Ago

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 11:02
XRP and Solana have both lost around 6% over the past 24 hours, falling amid a general reduction in risk traction in the markets and the two largest cryptocurrencies. Despite the apparent depth of the pullback, XRP remains 32% above levels from a week earlier, and the current retreat is well within Fibonacci technical correction from the rally of the past eight days. A drop below $0.78 would signal a deeper correction and open a quick path to $0.75. If all of February's gains are entirely nullified in the coming week and quotes pull back to below $0.60, it would be safe to speak of a new depressed period with a long-term downside potential of 50% to $0.3. The technical picture in Solana and Polkadot is worse, as a shadow hangs over them. The rise from January 28th to February 7th looked like a technical rebound after being oversold since November. But this growth momentum is quickly fading. We can say for this coin that without positivity for the overall market, it will continue to lose ground faster than BTC and ETH.
Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 08:53
Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%
XAGUSD And US100 Slides Down, USDJPY Near 116.00

XAGUSD And US100 Slides Down, USDJPY Near 116.00

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.02.2022 10:06
USDJPY to test major resistance The US dollar surged after consumer prices hit a 40-year high. Higher lows and then a close above the recent peak at 115.65 is an indication of strong bullish pressure. This breakout has propelled the greenback to January’s high at 116.35. Its breach could trigger a runaway rally and resume the uptrend in the medium term. An overbought RSI on the hourly chart may briefly restrain the bullish fever. 115.30 is the closest support and the bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. XAGUSD seeks support Bullions fell back after US Treasury yields soared over hot US inflation data. The psychological level of 22.00 has proven to be a solid demand area. A break above 23.00 has forced sellers to cover, paving the way for an upward extension. 24.00 from a previous rectangle consolidation is the next resistance. A bullish breakout would bring silver back to this year’s high at 24.70. On the downside, the resistance-turned-support at 22.80 could see buying interest in case of a retracement. US 100 hits resistance The Nasdaq 100 struggles as record-high US inflation exacerbates rate hike concerns. The previous rebound has eased selling pressure but hit resistance under 15350. The subsequent pullback bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (14400), which suggests buyers’ strong interest in keeping the index afloat. Sentiment is still a tad cautious unless the bulls clear the said hurdle. Then the psychological level of 16000 could be within reach. 14500 is a key support in case of an extended consolidation.
Mining Stocks Don't Stay As Strong As Gold

Mining Stocks Don't Stay As Strong As Gold

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 11.02.2022 15:41
  In line with bearish bets, miners have thrown a match. Gold, however, doesn’t want to leave the ring without a fight. How long will it stay high? While gold remains relatively firm despite stock market turbulence, rising real yields, and bearish technical indicators, even a confluence of headwinds hasn’t been able to knock the yellow metal off its lofty perch. However, mining stocks haven’t been so lucky. With my short position in the GDXJ ETF offering a great risk-reward proposition, the junior gold miners’ underperformance has played out exactly as I expected. Moreover, with major spikes in volume preceding predictable sell-offs (follow the vertical dashed lines below), I’ve warned on several occasions that the GDX ETF is prone to tipping its hand – we saw this volume spike in January, which was the 2022 top (as of today). In addition, with mining investors’ power drying up by the day, the medium-term looks equally unkind. Please see below: On Wednesday, gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of Wednesday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Yesterday’s big daily decline confirmed my above comments. Gold miners declined much more than gold did, and they did so at above-average volume. The latter indicates that “down” is the true direction in which the precious metals market is heading. To that point, the HUI Index provides clues from a longer-term perspective. When we analyze the weekly chart, it highlights investors’ anxiety. For example, after hitting an intraweek high of roughly 260, the HUI Index ended the Feb. 10 session at roughly 250 – just 3.99 up from last Friday – that’s an intraweek reversal. Furthermore, with the index still in a medium-term downtrend, shades of 2013 still profoundly bearish, and sharp declines often preceded by broad head and shoulders patterns (marked with green), there are several negatives confronting the HUI Index. As such, a sharp drawdown will likely materialize sooner rather than later. Please see below: Finally, the GDXJ ETF is the gift that keeps on giving. For example, with lower highs and lower lows being part of the junior miners’ roughly one-and-a-half-year journey, false breakouts have confused many investors. However, while I’ve been warning about the weakness for some time, more downside is likely on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 10: I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, outperformance of silver, AND the situation in the USD Index (the medium-term support held) together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. All in all, if the weakness continues, I expect the GDXJ ETF to challenge the $32 to $34 range. However, please note that this is my expectation for a short-term bottom. While the GDXJ ETF may record a corrective upswing at this level, the downtrend should continue thereafter, and the junior miners should fall further over the medium term. In conclusion, gold showcased its steady hand throughout the recent volatility. However, mining stocks have cracked under the pressure. With the latter’s underperformance often a bearish omen for the former, the yellow metal’s mettle may be tested over the medium term. As such, while the long-term outlooks for gold, silver, and mining stocks remain profoundly bullish, a final climax will likely unfold before their secular uptrends continue. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Hitting $2.000? Metal Seems To Feel Good

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.02.2022 07:34
Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
US 30 Is On A Slightly Low Level, Which Way Will GBPJPY Choose?

US 30 Is On A Slightly Low Level, Which Way Will GBPJPY Choose?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 14.02.2022 08:48
USDCHF to test resistance The US dollar rises as traders seek safe haven amid tensions in Ukraine. The pair is grinding up along a rising trendline from support at 0.9180. A series of higher lows suggests strong buying interest. A break above the intermediate resistance at 0.9275 may boost buyers’ confidence further. 0.9310 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the greenback to the double top (0.9370) on the daily chart. On the downside, the trendline is the closest support, and then 0.9180 is a critical level to keep the short-term rally intact. GBPJPY tests demand zone The pound may find support from Britain’s upbeat GDP in Q4. A break above January’s high at 157.70 suggests that the bulls have reclaimed control of price action. The next challenging task is to push above last October’s peak at 158.20. This would resume the uptrend in the medium term. In the meantime, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling is driving the price towards 155.20. Sentiment would remain steady as long as the sterling met bidders in this demand area. US 30 seeks support The Dow Jones 30 struggled as white-hot US inflation fanned fears of aggressive rate hikes. Nonetheless, a break above the 30-day moving average on the daily chart indicates improved market sentiment. An overbought RSI prompted momentum traders to exit. A fall below 34820 would suggest lingering hesitation among market participants and shake out weak hands. The bulls may see a pullback towards 34500 as a buying opportunity. The rebound may only resume if the price lifts offers around 35400.
The Swing Overview - Week 6 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 6 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 13.02.2022 23:00
The Swing Overview - Week 6 The record inflation rate in the US over the past 40 years sparked another wave of volatility in the markets on fears of more aggressive Fed action against an overheated economy. Unexpectedly strong US labour market data also came as a shock to markets. As a consequence, yields in the US 10-year bonds rose and broke the 2% mark. Equity indices, on the other hand, weakened towards the end of the week and we will see whether strong supports will be tested again under the influence of these fundamentals. Rising bond yields are not good news for gold either, which has so far responded to the strengthening dollar and rising yields by weakening. The macroeconomic data from the US Inflation and labour market data were clearly among the most anticipated macroeconomic events last week. Year-on-year inflation in the US rose to 7.5% in January 2022. This is the highest reading since February 1982 and is also higher than analysts' estimates, that had expected inflation to be around 7.3%. The reasons for the higher inflation are rising energy costs, a tight labor market and disruptions in supply chains, which are multiplied by strong demand in a recovering economy. The biggest contributors to rising inflation were energy prices, which rose by 27%, and fuel prices, which rose by 40%. Figure 1: The inflation in the US In terms of the labour market, the US economy created 467,000 new jobs in January. This was much more than the analysts' forecast, who estimated that, given the spread of the Omicron variant, only 150 thousand new jobs would be created in the US in January. Figure 2: The US jobs growth (NFP) This very strong data means one thing. The Fed will tighten the economy and probably at a much faster pace than the market expects. And this is also the reason for the further rise in the US 10-year bond yields, which have surpassed the 2% mark and reached their highest level since August 2019. Along with this, the dollar index, which had made a correction last week, has also started to strengthen.   Figure 3: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and the USD index on the daily chart A strong dollar, rising yields and the economy tightening at a faster pace than the market expects are clearly negative news for equity indices and also gold.   The NASDAQ and the SP500 Earnings season continues in the US. Of the well-known companies, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) reported results last week. While the company's earnings were higher than expectations, the pharmaceutical giant also reported that it expects revenue for 2022 to be USD 32 billion, below analysts' expectations, who were hoping for growth of around USD 33.8 billion.  Facebook continues to lose ground after last week's washout, causing the share price to drop from USD 320 to USD 220 in one week.   Figure 4: The NASDAQ index on H4 and D1 chart The NASDAQ started last week with a rise and the price approached the resistance according to the H4 chart. The information about record inflation had a strong negative impact on technology stocks and the price was moving near the support at the end of the week, which is in the range near 14,392 - 14,530 according to the H4 chart. Significant support is in the area at 13,750-13,950 according to the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 15,050 - 15,080.   Figure 5: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   There has been a very similar pattern on the SP 500 index to the NASDAQ. The price got to the resistance which is defined by the horizontal resistance area at 4,580 - 4,600. At the same time, there is a confluence with the broken trend line of the rising channel below which the index is moving. Support according to the H4 chart is at 4440 - 4454. According to the daily chart, significant support is at 4,225 - 4,300.   German DAX index Figure 6: The DAX on H4 and daily chart There is no clear direction on this index recently. We can probably say that the index is moving in a sideways trend which according to the daily chart is defined by the strong resistance at 16,300 (all-time high) and the support which has already been tested several times in the area between 14,850 - 15,000. The current move shows that the rising channel has been broken to the downside and also that the moving averages on the H4 chart EMA 50 and SMA 100 are in a bearish constellation. This together with the higher inflation data and also the recently announced hawkish ECB policy would suggest more of a move down to the aforementioned support. The nearest horizontal resistance according to the H4 chart is at 15,532 - 15,620. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is at 15,727 - 15,757.   The EUR/USD near strong resistance The EURUSD approached the strong 1.15 level but after the US inflation data was announced, the pair started to fall strongly. Thus, according to the H4 chart, a false break of the resistance arose, which is in the band around 1.1480 which tends to be a strong signal for further weakening. Figure 7: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The possibility of a weakening is also indicated by the development of the interest rate differential that is present in the yields between the 10-year bonds of Germany and the US. This has recently been very strongly correlated with developments on the EURUSD. Figure 8: Correlation of the interest rate differential between German and US 10-year bonds with the EURUSD currency pair on H4   The interest rate differential is starting to decline and this should suggest that the EURUSD might weaken. The nearest resistance is at the 1.1460 - 1.1480 band. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 1.1360 - 1.1370. The next one is at 1.1270 - 1.1280.   Gold Gold is taken by many investors as a hedge against inflation. But lately, gold seems to be losing in the battle for inflation protection to US Treasuries, which carry some yield, while gold does not deliver any yield. Gold is most responsive to the value of the US dollar. If the dollar rises, gold tends to depreciate and vice versa. Recent developments in the USD index suggest that the dollar could strengthen again this week, which should mean a test of support for gold. Figure 9: Gold on H4 and D1 charts   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the area of 1,835 - 1,841. Then the next resistance according to the daily chart is at 1,847 - 1,852. The nearest support is at 1 788 - 1 795 and then 1 780 - 1 784 USD per troy ounce of gold.  
The shopping spree on the investment land market continues

The shopping spree on the investment land market continues

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.02.2022 14:32
The battle for investment land is still going on, and the lack of attractive assets feels more and more severe. This applies to all large cities in Poland. For a long time, no matter the place, the investment land has not been easily available. In contrast, there are both plenty of people willing to buy land, as well as free funds to finance these purchases. The money surplus is enormous. Investors are trying to invest their capital in land as soon as possible, for fears of inflation. Although the peak shopping spree, often associated with really risky decisions, has already passed, the situation continues to bear resemblance to the one we remember from the years 2007-2008, when everything was selling like hot cakes, at rapidly rising prices. The appearance of new investors has shortened the sale process of attractive lands, which now usually closes within 3 months. In turn, the difficulty is the highly overestimated value of many plots of land or the unregulated ownership status of the property. The owners of land are also very reluctant to reserve the land through conditional or preliminary purchase agreements without deposit (earnest money). Maximizing profits through investments in land There are many companies willing to invest in land, despite the prices of land in some locations are growing in a blistering pace. The greatest shortage occurs in case of large plots for housing development in well-connected parts of cities. When the interesting plots of up to 5,000 m2 of residential and usage space appear on the market, even several companies compete for it. The larger the plot, the lower the number of competitors. Over the last two years, rates on the investment land market have increased by several dozen percent, depending on the location. Prices for 1 m2 of residential and usage space in attractive places in Warsaw or Krakow jumped by as much as 60 percent. Investors, for fear of further increases, buy land to increase their future profits. They are not deterred by soaring construction costs and time-consuming administrative procedures. The purchase of land can be financed in a number of ways. Many transactions are based on loans, many is financed from ongoing development activities, and some from issuance of bonds.   The pro-ecological, high standard housing estates, in unique location, turned out to be a hit among housing investments in the last year. The recent changes have translated into the demand for flats in recreational and tourist-attractive locations. The demand for land for residential buildings is further increased by the investments into premises for institutional quality lease. More and more development companies are involved in this type of projects, despite the lower margin. The share of the Private Rented Sector (PRS) in the sale of apartments as registered in 2021 by listed entities has already increased to over a dozen percent. Warehouses, warehouses everywhere As in case of housing developments, we can talk about very high demand for land for the planned warehouse and industrial investments. Wherever we see changes, road infrastructure improvements or express roads planned for construction, the land is immediately secured with preliminary contracts. It is easier to find plots for logistics projects, as investments in this sector are also carried out in greenfield areas located outside the administrative borders of cities. Therefore, both the greater supply and less competition from investors looking for land for investments in residential or service and commercial sectors. The land in required for both large-format investments with an area of ​​several dozen or over 100 thousand m2, as well as the so-called last mile warehouses and smaller municipal facilities. Investors from the warehouse sector are primarily interested in plots located near logistics hubs and in the vicinity of the largest cities, as well as plots located in smaller towns due to the rapidly growing online sales. The warehouse market is currently experiencing a period of the development of speculative investments. The companies are not afraid to perform such projects, as the demand for warehouse space has never been growing so fast as now, and there is practically no free warehouses space available. This is largely related to the growth of the e-commerce market, which is expected to grow further in value in the coming years, at the average rate of several per cent per annum. Moreover, the change of the transport structure, shortening the supply chains or the growing demand for buffer areas, where inventories are stored, also affect this demand. Similarly, the warehouses generate over half of the transaction volume on the investment market in Poland. Year by year, the logistics and industrial sectors are increasing their market share, reaching new highs. Our market is the point of interest of foreign capital from Europe, mainly from Germany, as well as North American and Asian companies. Shares of small shopping centers are going up Developers also share a keen interest in the construction of retail parks. The format now brings together as many as three-quarters of new investments in the retail sector. Retail parks, just like warehouses, have attracted more and more attention of funds and capital groups as investment assets. Although in Poland in 2021 the retail space has increased by 300,000 m2, with the same amount currently under construction, 70 percent of which being the retail parks, unfortunately there is still a shortage of this commodity. Hence, one-third of transactions for the purchase of commercial real properties from the last year concerned older-generation properties, dominated by properties owned by Tesco. The recent popularity of retail parks and convenience centers has resulted in the increased interest of the investors to perform such projects. Investors often enter into these investments in order to diversify their real properties portfolio. However, of course there are also entities on the market that specialize only in this format. The advantage of projects related to the construction of retail parks is that their construction process can be completed within 18 months, and the entry threshold is much lower in comparison to larger projects. In case of these projects, investors are looking for land mostly in smaller cities up to 100,000 or even 50,000 residents, in which market saturation is not too high. Land in such locations is much cheaper than in the largest cities, which also translates into higher investment profitability. The most attractive plots of land for new projects are located in areas which can potentially be visited also by residents of the surrounding boroughs. In case of retail parks, the key to ensuring satisfactory returns on investment is to include in the list of tenants a popular foodstuff chainstore. This is not only one of the most important reasons for visiting a shopping center, but also influences the image of the facility. An interesting trend that we can observe recently is the appearance of new brands in retail parks, often boutique brands, that have never been present in such facilities before. Land - the star of the investment market The high activity on the investment land market is also evidenced by the transactions carried out in 2021 by LBC Invest, most of which concerned land real properties. In WrocÅ‚aw and Kraków, we have supported our clients with comprehensive customer services for contracting of land in the implementation of development projects in the residential segment for over 45.000 m2 of residential and usable area. Some of them are under construction, and some are in the phase of obtaining building permits. We also closed a few speculative transactions last year. We are currently performing activities on over 70 ha of land. In the last quarter of 2021, we also signed contracts for the performance of comprehensive investment processes, including commercialization for retail parks located in Krakow and two smaller cities – in Lesser Poland and Pomeranian regions, with investors both from Africa and Poland. Last year, we also managed transactions for the purchase of commercialized land, together with construction designs and a building permit, and at the same time concluding general contracting agreements with previously selected companies. Concluding the contract of sale in this form was a condition for the purchase of investment areas, especially those for retail parks and located in attractive locations, with a built-up area of ​​2,500 to 8,000 GLA.
Alphabet (GOOGL) To Split Its Stocks (20:1) The Simplest Question Is... Why?

Alphabet (GOOGL) To Split Its Stocks (20:1) The Simplest Question Is... Why?

Dividend Power Dividend Power 14.02.2022 15:34
Recently, Google (GOOGL) announced that it would conduct a stock split. Inspired by an excellent 4th quarter earnings report and a high share price, Google has decided to split the stock to help more new investors acquire shares. The split would be a 20-for-1 stock split. How Has Google Grown Over the Years? In 2015, Google rebranded itself into the Tech giant Alphabet. Larry Page sought to make Google something more than a search engine. The company had ambitions of working on healthcare, hardware, and drones, which was a bit different from having a search engine-focused business. It would help create something more than the internet. So, Google changed its name and vision to the holding company Alphabet, allowing them to create, experiment, and invest in new opportunities. People continue to see the growth in a stock like Alphabet. After the 4th quarter, Alphabet announced their earnings, which grew over 32%. This revenue growth sent the stock soaring another 7.5% in after-hours trading. Due to the continued growth of Alphabet, their stock has become too pricey for everyday retail investors. A split can solve the problem. For instance, both Apple (AAPL) and Telsa (TSLA) split their stock allowing more investors to buy at lower prices. In addition, splitting their stock to lower the cost enables new investors to jump on board and become owners of the company. Alphabet has three classes of stock, class A, B, and C. Class A gives each shareholder one vote. Class B is for some of the founders and early investors into the company, and they have ten votes per share. Lastly, Class C has no votes. Each of these classes will conduct a stock split. One of the great things about Alphabet is that it continues to grow. Since May of 2020, Alphabet's value has doubled. Earlier this year, Alphabet posted a 62% revenue growth for the 2nd quarter. Right now, the company is worth just shy of $2 trillion, making it one of the world's largest companies by market cap. So naturally, investors want to be a part of a growing company. A stock split allows more people to be invested for the long term with Alphabet. What Exactly is a Stock Split? A stock split is when a company splits a stock dividing it up and giving the shareholder additional shares. For instance, if a share of stock was worth $1,000, a company could do a 10-for-1 split. This split would give each shareholder ten shares for every share they currently own. Each share would now be worth $100 apiece. However, the total market capitalization does not change before or after the split. Companies may split the stock when the share price rises too quickly, making it unattainable for new customers to hold that share. The price gets too high. Why is Alphabet Splitting Its Stock? Alphabet is the most expensive stock on a per share basis in Silicon Valley, and there are other opportunities to explore as an investor. Alphabet's stock is nearly $3,000 per share. At this stock price, many new investors cannot own a part of Alphabet unless they go the route of fractional shares or do index investing. Other authors have speculated that Alphabet is seeking to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted index, and with the high price of Alphabet stock, the Index would not want to bring them on board. In August of 2020, Apple did a 4-for-1 split of their stock, and it lowered their weight by about 3% in the Dow 30. Companies like Alphabet and Amazon are too large to be added into the Dow. Their stock prices would have an uneven weight due to the high cost. If those companies split their stock to lower prices, it gives them more advantages, and they can join the Dow 30. As Alphabet wants to continue to grow, it will want to add new investors and reach broader audiences. By potentially joining the Dow 30, Alphabet can make this happen by going through the various index funds and mutual funds that track the Dow Jones. Will the Split Affect the Value of the Stock? What happens when a split is announced? The total value of the shares will not drop. Instead, the new stock price will fall by 1/20th of the old stock price. Typically, shares increase in aftermarket trading like we saw the day after Alphabet announced the split. The total value will not be reduced in any way after the stock split. Each Class A and Class B shareholder will now have more votes but in the same proportion as before the split, and the Class C shares will continue to be the cheapest avenue to owning a piece of Google. When Will This Stock Split Take Place? Alphabet has announced that everyone that owns sarees on July 1st will receive their new shares on Friday, July 15th. That price should be around $150 per share, which is 1/20th of the cost of $3,000. The trading at the new stock price will take place on July 18th. What Does This Mean for the Regular Investor? Typically, a stock split is neither good nor bad. The stock will usually rise with the new interest from investors, and eventually, the buzz will fade away. However, if this is a worry for you as an individual shareowner, then maybe owning an index fund or ETF is the way to go for you to improve diversification. As Alphabet grows, it will continue to grow its revenue streams and bring more value to the shareholder. Growth is an excellent thing for an investor. We see many companies declining, like GE (GE) or even AT&T (T). For instance, AT&T (T) cut its dividend due to continued weakness and a change in strategy. As companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet continue to innovate and create, investors will want to be a part of the journey as shareholders. Should you worry about Google's stock split? Again, there is nothing to worry about; just keep to your investing strategy and keep investing. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Entrepreneur, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.5% (126 out of over 8,212) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 
Dogecoin price prediction: DOGE to first tank 7%, before rallying 40%

Dogecoin price prediction: DOGE to first tank 7%, before rallying 40%

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.02.2022 15:59
Dogecoin price action is under pressure as global markets are nervous about a possible escalation between Ukraine and Russia. DOGE looks set to break the low from the previous week and dip towards $0.1357 Expect once DOGE price reaches that level to see a rally into the weekend that could hold 40% gains. Dogecoin (DOGE) is set for a solid rally but first needs to face the most vital forces with global markets pressing on all assets with a mood of risk-off, as today and tomorrow could be the tipping point in the escalation towards a war between Russia and Ukraine. As tailwinds are just too big a force to face, DOGE will dip further towards solid support at $0.1357. Once bulls enter, expect a big rally that could swing up to 40% towards $0.19. Time for the bulls to stake a step back and look at the bigger picture Dogecoin is under pressure as the overall cryptocurrency space joins global markets rattled by a crucial moment in the Russia-Ukraine development. As Russian army exercises near the Ukrainian border are set to end tomorrow, the crucial moment for a possible invasion to take place before then. This is putting markets on edge with risk-off across the board and EU equities down more than 3%. This risk sentiment is weighing on DOGE price action with the low of last week being tested, and bears using the entry-level from Sunday at $0.1594 where the 55-day Simple Moving Average and the pivotal historical level delivered a firm rejection to the upside. With that, expect this downtrend to continue today and dip towards $0.1357, which already proved its support at the end of January. Once there, expect bulls to jump on the opportunity and lead a rally that could jump as much as 40% towards $0.19 once the geopolitical rhetoric dies down and cools off. DOGE/USD daily chart Should Russia engage in war with Ukraine and invade, expect this to pull the trigger for investors to flee the markets and cause a fire sale across the board. For DOGE this would mean that it could tank another 24% on top of the 7% forecasted for today. That would bring DOGE price action down to around $0.1030, where the monthly S1 support level is situated, the red descending trendline and the $0.1000 psychological level – providing three elements that could catch the falling price action.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart - There's A Big Red Candle On The Right Hand Side

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.02.2022 16:24
S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and gave up the opportunity for a tight range trading on Friday all too easily. The prospects of war were that formidable opponent, against which the S&P 500 didn‘t really stand a chance. So, the downtrend has reasserted itself, and HYG doesn‘t look to have found a floor – junk bonds are leading to the downside, with energy, materials and financials standing out, which isn‘t exactly a bullish constellation. The other key beneficiaries of the safe haven bid were gold, miners and oil. Silver lagged as copper retreated all too easily, but I‘m looking for that to change. As for Monday‘s session in stocks, the odds of a countertrend move to the upside, at least intraday, are good. Just a quick glance at the dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin would reveal the extent of possible stabilization. Stabilization, not a reversal, because HYG is unlikely to turn up, and I‘m not looking for stocks to start moving up again. Thursday marked a high point in the countertrend rally, which was cut short after some 5 days only. Sideways to a little up is the best the bulls can hope for on Monday. Funny though how with all eyes on Eastern Europe, the inflation and steep rate hike bets receded? What a Super Bowl! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Whatever backing and filling there could have been, the S&P 500 didn‘t hesitate, and is pointing to the downside. The bears are back, and aren‘t yielding. Credit Markets Credit markets went decidedly risk-off, and a little sideways reprieve wouldn‘t be surprising. But it would change nothing as the bets on rising rates, are on, and the 2-year Treasury is forcing the Fed‘s hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold came alive on the tensions escalation news – the uptrend is alive and well indeed, even without these geopolitical developments. The upswing wasn‘t really sold into. Crude Oil Crude oil correction came to an abrupt close, and it‘s unlikely black gold would dip in the current environment. The upcoming corrections would be bought as much as the previous one, and given the oil stocks performance, wouldn‘t likely reach far to the downside. Copper Copper is under pressure, and not holding up as well as other commodities. Base metals though are breaking higher, which is why I‘m looking at Friday‘s red metal trading as a temporary setback only. Bitcoin and Ethereum The floor in cryptos is heralding a tight range day – it‘s good for risk-on that Friday‘s downswing isn‘t immediately continuing, it‘s buying some time. Summary S&P 500 bears are back in the driver‘s seat, and the rush to Treasuries took the spotlight off rate hikes – to a small degree. Not that the Fed would be changing course on geopolitics, we aren‘t there yet. To the contrary, credit markets are pressuring the central bank to move – as decisively as possible in the overleveraged system – and Powell would find it hard not to deliver. Come autumn latest, the strain on the real economy would be hard to ignore – real estate is feeling the pinch already. Stock bulls can‘t expect higher prices unless tech recovers, and we look to be still far from that moment. Real assets with safe haven appeal are likely to do best, and the same goes for the dollar temporarily too. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Should I buy TSLA, RIVN or LCID?

Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Should I buy TSLA, RIVN or LCID?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.02.2022 15:59
TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Goes Up! Heading To Two Thousand Dollars?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 10:07
Since the end of last week, the price of gold has risen by more than 3%. With a high of $1879, it was temporarily rose to highs since last June. Biden's warning that Russia could invade Ukraine "at any moment" triggered a broad sell-off in Europe and several emerging markets and tangentially affected the US equity market. Recent events have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from decades of tension: gold has risen as insurance against currency destabilisation, and oil has risen on fears of a surge in demand and a shortage of supply. Geopolitics give a shaky ground behind this growth, so investors should be wary of joining gold's rise. It is impossible to predict whether the next move will escalate or de-escalate. Now, there are far more signs that the peak of tension is behind us, yet gold continues to gain today. Likely, the fundamental demand for gold is now driven by a desire to preserve the purchasing value of capital amid inflation and ongoing price shocks across a range of commodities. Also, tech analysis is now on the side of the bulls. A trend of higher local lows has formed since the end of September, with the last anchor point in late January. In addition, the 50-day moving average is again above the 200-day moving average, giving a bullish "golden cross" signal. This signal coincided with a solid upward momentum on Friday, strengthening the bullish signal. In January, the former retracement resistance line became support, indicating a break in the trend. If gold stays above $1865 - the area of the November peaks- despite the reduction of the geopolitical premium - we can speak of a bullish momentum development. In this case, the nearest target of this impulse will be the area of $1900-1910. In general, we can say that the long period of correction and sluggish dynamics of gold is over, and then its price can move from one local top to another, potentially exceeding $2000 by August.
Will USDJPY Find Its Stability? XAUUSD Is Trades Higher And Higher

Will USDJPY Find Its Stability? XAUUSD Is Trades Higher And Higher

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.02.2022 09:04
USDJPY hits double top The US dollar recovers as hot CPI fuels bets of a 50 basis points hike in March. The rally came to a halt at January’s high (116.35). Profit-taking compounded by new selling triggered a liquidation below 115.50. The medium-term trajectory remains upward and the bulls may be eager to buy the dips. 114.90 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract bargain hunters. Further down, the daily support at 114.20 is a major demand zone in case of a deeper correction. A close above the double top could resume the uptrend. XAGUSD tests resistance Bullion rallies over investors’ flight to safety. Silver continues to climb from the daily support at 22.00. Following a brief pullback, a break above the recent high at 23.70 indicates strong buying interest. A bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration to the upside. The psychological level of 24.00 is the next hurdle and a breakout would bring the price to January’s peak at 24.70. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited fallback; if so the previous low at 22.90 would be the closest support. GER 40 tests critical floor The Dax 40 remains under pressure over Russia-Ukraine tensions. The last rebound’s failure to achieve a new high showed that the bears were still in charge. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength as sentiment remains wary. The index saw bids in the critical demand zone around 14900 which has been tested several times in the last four months. A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off and put a serious dent in the medium-term rally. The bulls will need to reclaim 15500 before they could turn things around.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

BTC Wants To Let Us Forget About January's Lows. On Monday: BTC Decreased By 0.2%, ETH And LUNA Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 09:28
The first cryptocurrency returned to growth on Tuesday morning, adding 3.3% and rising to 43,500. Technically, BTCUSD held above the 50-day moving average and received support from buyers after another touch of this level. At the same time, however, this average is directed downwards, emphasizing the general downward trend. Cryptocurrencies seem to be once again trying on the role of a safe-haven asset, becoming a little more like gold and a little less like stocks. Although US stock indices were under pressure on Monday, they decided to stop the sharp decline at the end of last week. However, the high-tech Nasdaq ended the day unchanged. European stock indicators showed a noticeable drop under the influence of tensions around Ukraine. On the same background, gold shot up 3% to highs since June last year. It should be understood that in the event of a massive sale of shares, only short-term government bonds will be the protective asset of last resort. Institutions invested $75 million in crypto funds last week, according to CoinShares. Over the past four weeks, net inflows to crypto funds amounted to $209 million. The head of Uber said that the company would definitely start accepting cryptocurrencies in the future. A British crypto investor has announced the creation of a city for crypto investors in the Pacific and expects thousands of supporters from around the world to join soon. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to limit the investments of unqualified Russian investors in cryptocurrencies to 50 thousand rubles. The agency estimates tax revenues to the budget from the legalization of the cryptocurrency market at 10-15 billion rubles, and the main amount of payments will fall on the miners. Overall, Bitcoin was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day at around $42,200. Ethereum added 0.1%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decrease of 1.6% (XRP) to a rise of 2 .2% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.5% per day, to $1.97 trillion. The BTC dominance index did not change during the day, remaining at the level of 40.7%. The Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 46 and is in a state of fear.
Indices: Russia-Ukraine Tension Eased? GER 40 On A Way To A Stable Price?

Indices: Russia-Ukraine Tension Eased? GER 40 On A Way To A Stable Price?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 15.02.2022 10:32
We’re seeing a solid momentum shift today as news hit that some Russian troops have been returned to bases. This ease in tentions is driving risk buying after what has been a sorry few days for buyers as prices plunged on worries Russia was close to invading Ukraine. Friday GER30 returned to LT support a level that held for buyers since May 2021. Above that, we are also watching a shorter-term level of support seen at 15,030. On top of the levels, we can also see a double bottom and the Williams %R has crossed the mid-point range. While these technical indicators look great the meat in this sandwich is the continued ease in tentions, this fact in our opinion is key to seeing this current rally turn into something more. If we do see a continuation of buying as the European situation improves we would look for the GER30 to continue tracking higher and we would look at 15,601 as possible resistance if reached which lines up with the longer-term 86ema. GER30 D1 Chart  The post CFD Update: GER30 on the recovery trail as tensions ease appeared first on Eightcap.
Should Someone Tell The Price Of Gold It's Time To Review Its Incoming "Oponents"?

Should Someone Tell The Price Of Gold It's Time To Review Its Incoming "Oponents"?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 15.02.2022 16:00
  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

Mean Reversion

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.02.2022 16:32
S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Ripple (XRP) Increases By 1.7%, AVAX By 12%, (BTC) Bitcoin Gains 4.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 08:40
Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.
Speaking Of nVidia Stock, S&P500 (SPX), The Conflict In Eastern Europe And GBP State

Look At This XAUUSD Slide. Did GBPUSD Find Its Straight Line?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.02.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.
Stumbling Again

Stumbling Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Binance Coin set for pop above significant resistance as relief rally takes a short halt

Binance Coin set for pop above significant resistance as relief rally takes a short halt

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.02.2022 16:18
Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA, RIVN or LCID stock, which is the best buy?

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA, RIVN or LCID stock, which is the best buy?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.02.2022 16:18
Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart
NYMEX Gas Prices Catapulted Like Fighter Jets from an Aircraft Carrier

NYMEX Gas Prices Catapulted Like Fighter Jets from an Aircraft Carrier

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 16.02.2022 16:56
  The Natural Gas flight has passed its first goal and is on its way to the second target. Here is a map showing the route to Natgas’ new destination. In today’s edition, I will provide some updates on recent market developments for Natural Gas futures (NGF22) following my last projections published on Friday, Feb. 11, for which the stop was also updated on Wednesday. Trade Plan We all love it when a trade plan comes together! The market has to cope with stronger demand to fuel increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Therefore, you can see that the rebounding floor (support) provided was ideal for the Henry Hub, which is also supported by unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to turn its momentum back up. The recommended objective of $4.442 was almost hit yesterday. However, it was achieved this morning (during the European session) and the $4.818 level is now the next goal. As I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, my recommended stop, which was located just below the $ 3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), was recently lifted up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven). Now it could be lifted one more time up to 4.180, which corresponds to the 50% distance between the initial entry and target 1. By doing so, the second half of the trade would become optimally managed. Alternatively, you can also use an Average True Range (ATR) multiple to determine a different level (above breakeven) that may better suit your trading style. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: DHenry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) That’s all folks for today. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
AUDUSD And NZDUSD Charts Looks Quite Similar... SPX Trades A Bit Lower Than A Few Days Ago

AUDUSD And NZDUSD Charts Looks Quite Similar... SPX Trades A Bit Lower Than A Few Days Ago

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.02.2022 08:51
AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.
Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022?

Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.02.2022 16:29
  Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high. Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC. I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows. According to the report, “gold drew direction chiefly from inflation and interest rate expectations in 2021,” although it seems that rising rates outweighed inflationary concerns. As the chart below shows, the interest rates increased significantly last year. For example, 10-year Treasury yields rose 60 basis points. As a result, the opportunity costs for holding gold moved up, triggering an outflow of gold holdings from the ETF. As the rise in interest rates is likely to continue in 2022 because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, gold investment may struggle this year as well. The end of quantitative easing and the start of quantitative tightening may add to the downward pressure on gold prices. However, there are some bullish caveats here. First, gold has remained resilient in January, despite the hawkish FOMC meeting. Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle could be detrimental to the US stock market and the overall, highly indebted economy, which could be supportive of gold prices. Third, as the report points out, “gold has historically outperformed in the months following the onset of a US Fed tightening cycle”. The second publication released by the WGC last month was “The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset 2022”. The main thesis of the report is that gold is a strategic asset, complementary to equities and bonds, that enhances investment portfolios’ performance. This is because gold is “a store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation, and inflation.” It is also “highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.” Gold is believed to be a great source of return, as its price has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 1971, according to the WGC. Gold can also provide liquidity, as the gold market is highly liquid. As the report points out, “physical gold holdings by investors and central banks are worth approximately $4.9 trillion, with an additional $1.2 trillion in open interest through derivatives traded on exchanges or the over-the-counter (OTC) market.” Last but not least, gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress. The WGC’s analysis suggests that investors should consider adding between 4% and 15% of gold to the portfolio, but personally, I would cap this share at 10%.   Implications for Gold What do the recent WGC reports imply for the gold market? Well, one thing is that adding some gold to the investment portfolio would probably be a smart move. After all, gold serves the role of both a safe-haven asset and an insurance against tail risks. It’s nice to be insured. However, investing in gold is something different, as gold may be either in a bullish or bearish trend. You should never confuse these two motives behind owning gold! Sometimes it’s good to own gold for both insurance and investment reasons, but not always. When it comes to 2022, investment demand for gold may continue to be under downward pressure amid rising interest rates. However, there are also some bullish forces at work, which could intensify later this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors spooked by renewed geopolitical tensions

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.02.2022 16:10
Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case
Gores Guggenheim Stock News and Forecast: Is GGPI a better bet than LCID or RIVN?

Gores Guggenheim Stock News and Forecast: Is GGPI a better bet than LCID or RIVN?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.02.2022 16:10
GGPI Stock has rallied after a Superbowl ad. GGPI stock surges another 4% on Wednesday as momentum remains high. GGPI may struggle as markets turn negative and growth stocks struggle to hold gains. Gores Guggenheim (GGPI) stock is probably more commonly referred to as Polestar stock now that the SPAC will take electric vehicle maker Polestar public this year. The deal is due to complete some time in the first half of 2022. Polestar is an electric vehicle maker backed by Volvo and Chinese company Geely. So what is different about this one compared to the others? Gores Guggenheim Stock News Polestar looks merely like Volvo's EV division. We know this is not the case as Volvo has its hybrid and EV models planned. However, the companies certainly have strong links. Rivian (RIVN) went public in a blaze of hype and publicity due largely to its links to Amazon (AMZN) and Ford (F). Both companies had stakes in Rivian. However, from what we know, Rivian will have to build out its manufacturing and distribution network. It will not piggyback on Ford for this. Polestar uses the Volvo service network in the UK, and Polestar will utilize Volvo's South Carolina plant to manufacture Polestar models in the US. Previously, Polestar said it will have its showrooms in the US but use Volvo for servicing. Polestar will look to do as much sales work as possible online and use Volvo then for manufacturing and servicing. This gives it an obvious advantage over LCID and RIVN. Gores Guggenheim Stock Forecast On Wednesday, the stock spiked again, closing nearly 5% higher at $12.02. The company has been in charge since the Superbowl ad brought more attention to the stock and the cars. Both seem well received. Now GGPI stock has ramped up to a strong resistance area. Above $12 and as high as $12.36 is the previous spike high from December. This will be tough to break given that high risk stocks are likely to suffer as we close out the week. Geopolitical events are dominating and high growth names are still not favored. SPACs generally hold $10 cash until the deal goes through, so this is obvious support. The best strategy with SPAC trading is to try and buy as close to $10 as possible. GGPI 1-day chart
Commodity Currencies Explained (Part I)

Commodity Currencies Explained (Part I)

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 15.11.2021 16:26
Ever think of commodities when trading currencies? Or vice-versa? What do Brazilian reals have to do with soybeans, or Indian rupees with diamonds? Let’s start by defining what could be called a commodity currency (or commodity pair). Generally, a commodity currency represents a currency from a country or geographical zone that produces specific commodities which will account for most of its exports. Some examples of currencies which could be considered as commodity currencies are presented in the following table: Currencies Top Material Exports Argentine peso (ARS) Soybean meal ($8.81B), corn ($6.19B), delivery trucks ($3.83B), soybeans ($3.47B), soybean oil ($3.38B), bran ($292M), other vegetable residues and waste ($232M), and ground nut oil ($131M) Australian dollar (AUD) Iron ore ($67.5B), coal briquettes ($51.5B), petroleum gas ($34.1B), gold ($25.4B), aluminium oxide ($5.6B), sheep and goat meat ($3.07B), and wool ($2.26B) Brazilian real (BRL) Soybeans ($26.1B), crude petroleum ($24.3B), iron ore ($23B), corn ($7.39B), sulfate chemical wood pulp ($7.35B), poultry meat ($6.55B), frozen bovine meat ($5.67B) and raw sugar ($5.33B) Canadian dollar (CAD) Crude petroleum ($67.8B), cars ($40.9B), gold ($14.6B), refined Petroleum ($12.3B), vehicle parts ($10.8B), sawn wood ($6.35B), raw aluminium ($5.45B), potassic fertilizers ($5.27B), rapeseed ($3.23B), and rapeseed oil ($2.6B) Indian rupee (INR) Refined petroleum ($39.2B), diamonds ($22.5B), packaged medicaments ($15.8B), jewellery ($14.1B), cars ($7.15B), Rice ($6.9B), Crustaceans ($4.67B), and Non-Retail Pure Cotton Yarn ($2.86B) Indonesian rupiah (IDR) Coal briquettes ($20.3B), palm oil ($15.3B), petroleum gas ($8.32B), cars ($4.52B), gold ($4.01B), lignite ($2.91B), stearic acid ($2.76B), uncoated paper ($2.37B), and coconut oil ($1.9B) Malaysian ringgit (MYR) Integrated circuits ($63B), refined petroleum ($17.8B), petroleum gas ($11.5B), semiconductor devices ($9.65B), palm oil ($8.91B), rubber apparel ($4.37B), other vegetable oils ($1B), copper powder ($873M), asphalt mixtures ($417M), and platinum clad metals ($127M) Mexican peso (MXN) Cars ($53.1B), computers ($32.4B), vehicle parts ($31.2B), delivery trucks ($26.9B), crude petroleum ($26.6B), tractors ($10.7B), beer ($5.07B), tropical fruits ($3.6B), and railway freight cars ($3.57B) New Zealand dollar (NZD) Concentrated milk ($5.73B), sheep and goat meat ($2.62B), rough wood ($2.31B), butter ($2.29B), frozen bovine meat ($2.09B), casein ($613M), and honey ($237M) Nigerian naira (NGN) Crude Petroleum ($46B), petroleum gas ($7.78B), scrap vessels ($2.26B), flexible metal tubing ($2.1B), and cocoa beans ($715M) Peruvian nuevo sol (PEN) Copper ore ($12.2B), gold ($6.76B), refined petroleum ($2.21B), zinc ore ($1.65B), and refined copper ($1.62B), animal meal and pellets ($1.54B), lead ore ($1.01B), fish oil ($434M), and buckwheat ($139M) Russian ruble (RUB) Crude petroleum ($123B), refined petroleum ($66.2B), petroleum gas ($26.3B), coal briquettes ($17.6B), wheat ($8.14B), semi-finished iron ($6.99B), coal tar oil ($4.49B), raw nickel ($4.03B), and nitrogenous fertilizers ($3.05B) South African rand (ZAR) Gold ($16.8B), platinum ($9.62B), cars ($7.61B), iron ore ($6.73B), and coal briquettes ($5.05B), manganese ore ($3.16B), chromium ore ($1.92B), titanium ore ($583M), and niobium, tantalum, vanadium, and zirconium ore ($480M) Swiss franc (CHF) Gold ($59B), packaged medicaments ($46.2B), blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins, and cultures ($32.9B), base metal watches ($13.6B), jewellery ($10.9B), precious metal watches ($7.32B), and hydrazine or hydroxylamine derivatives ($501M) US dollar (USD) Refined petroleum ($84.9B), crude petroleum ($61.9B), cars ($56.9B), integrated circuits ($41.4B), vehicle parts ($41.2B), medical instruments ($29.5B), gas turbines ($28.1B), aircraft parts ($16.3B), and orthopedic appliances ($12.1B) Vietnamese dong (VND) Broadcasting equipment ($42.3B), telephones ($18.2B), integrated circuits ($15.5B), textile footwear ($10.6B), and leather footwear ($6.43B), coconuts, Brazil nuts, and cashews ($3.16B), fuel wood ($2.05B), cement ($1.39B), metal-clad products ($1.37B), and cinnamon ($175M) West African CFA franc (XOF) Gold ($11.66B), cocoa beans ($3.84B), refined petroleum ($2.64B), rubber ($1.08B), raw cotton ($1.04B), and crude petroleum ($941M), cocoa paste ($795M), other oily seeds ($407M), Phosphoric Acid ($346M), coconuts, Brazil nuts, and cashews ($280M), ground nuts ($192M), zinc ore ($173M), raw zinc ($155M), electricity ($141M), cocoa shells ($115M), calcium phosphates ($95.7M), radioactive chemicals ($59.6M), rough wood ($59.5M), raw copper ($49.4M), Petroleum Gas ($42.5M), non-fillet frozen fish ($356.1M), other vegetable residues ($25.4M), and aluminium ore ($3.17M) Data: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) (Bold: products which the country/economic area was the world’s biggest exporter in 2019) For active trading purposes, the ones highlighted in yellow would be characterised as freely floating and more liquid currencies. Thus, they would also be more accessible and less costly (with lower fees) to trade. For hedging purposes, the others would present some advantages to the commercialisation of their associated natural resources, even though they would rather be considered more exotic currencies. Charts: Here is a representation of some key commodity currencies presented in the above table on a weekly timeframe against the US dollar (reference currency): Each chart was represented within 2-standard deviation Bollinger Bands based on a 20-period simple moving average (in orange), a 50-period simple moving average (blue curve), a 200-period simple moving average (the black curve) and in the pane below is a 14-period relative strength index (in blue) to which was applied a 9-period simple moving average (red curve). All those charts are displayed over a 2-year historical period. In the next article I’ll focus on highlighting some correlations which may exist between key natural resources and the currencies in which they are usually traded. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Fed And BoE Ahead Of Interest Rates Decisions. Having A Look At Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Charts

Mid & Small Cap Indexes May Surge Higher

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 16.02.2022 21:32
As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events. As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment. IWM May Rally 12 to 14% - Targeting $238 to $240 This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles. I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240. The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets. These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur. WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Our Attention Should Be Drawn To Fed As Well, An Increase Of Interest Rate Is Likely To Come

Our Attention Should Be Drawn To Fed As Well, An Increase Of Interest Rate Is Likely To Come

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 15.02.2022 15:31
The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Bonds Not Reflecting Risks Like They Usually Do – Where's The Beef?

Bonds Not Reflecting Risks Like They Usually Do – Where's The Beef?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 11.02.2022 21:46
I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
We Will Probably Review All Of Inflation Indicators Around The World This Weekend

The Taxman vs Traders - How To Minimize His Cut Of Your Profits

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 10.02.2022 21:27
While the reality is hopefully not quite that bad, as Traders and Investors, we need to consider our silent partner, the "Taxman," and how to minimize his cut of our profits. Having a "tax problem" can be a good "problem" to have. But we're not obligated to pay any more in taxes than tax laws and regulations in our jurisdiction require. As George Harrison of the Beatles famously penned… “Let me tell you how it will beThere's one for you, nineteen for me'Cause I'm the taxmanYeah, I'm the taxman” Are there strategies we can use to significantly reduce our tax bill, even to as low as $0? You bet! Before we dive in, here are a few caveats… We're not tax advisors. You absolutely should review any taxation questions, strategies, or issues with a tax professional that is well-versed in your tax jurisdiction and familiar with your circumstances. Much of the following pertains to those in the USA. But there's some information here that may be useful to those outside the USA as well. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Tax strategies can range from simple to complex. Some have rock-solid legal standing, while some of the more aggressive strategies may invite unwelcome scrutiny from tax authorities. Personally, I prefer simple strategies that are easy to maintain and not subject to “debate” with the IRS. Lastly, laws and tax codes are subject to change. You need to continually educate yourself and have a good tax advisor to stay on top of any changes. Traders Tax-Free Accounts PayPal Founder Peter Thiel famously used the Roth IRA to turn a small investment in Founder’s shares into more than $5 billion tax-free. Google it. It’s a fantastic testimony to the power of the Roth IRA. Hands-down, the Roth IRA (first created in 1997) is a simple and powerful tool for legally avoiding taxes. Why? Because any gains in the account are not taxed. Not now, not ever! Reporting individual trades on your tax return in a Roth IRA is super simple. Why? Because none is required! Maintenance and reporting for a Roth IRA couldn’t be easier. The tradeoff is that - like a Regular IRA - you generally cannot withdraw funds tax-free until age 59 ½. (There are ways around that with a 72t Plan, for example.) And contributions to a Roth IRA are not tax-deductible like they are with a Regular IRA. If you have Earned Income in the United States, you should seriously consider maximizing contributions to a Roth IRA. Even if you currently don’t have Earned Income, but you have a regular IRA, there are ways to convert all or part of those funds into a Roth IRA should you choose to do so. Typically, you’d have to pay taxes on the converted funds. But once that’s done, the taxes are paid in full. This is commonly known as the “Backdoor Roth IRA,” which is also a way around the income-based annual contribution limits for a Roth. Tax-Deferred Accounts Second-best to the Roth IRA is a Regular IRA. Contributions are tax-deductible in the year made. Capital gains in the account are not taxed until funds are withdrawn. Distributions after age 59 ½ are taxed as regular income when they are made. It used to be that the investment vehicles and strategies that could be used in both Regular and Roth IRAs were somewhat limited. Now there is an extensive range of asset classes and strategies permitted. For example, as an options trader, almost any defined risk strategy is permissible in either a Regular or Roth IRA at most options brokers. Special Tax Treatment Section 1256 contracts were created to eliminate a tax avoidance where contracts were sold near year-end to show a loss, and like-kind were repurchased in the following tax year. Section 1256 contract rules were created to require “marked-to-market” at year-end whether the contracts are sold or not. The big side benefit of Section 1256 contracts is the 60/40 tax treatment, where 60% of gains are treated as long-term capital gains and taxed at a lower rate. The other 40% are treated as short-term capital gains and taxed as ordinary income. If you’re trading in a taxable account, it can be very beneficial to choose Section 1256 contracts where those happen to fit into your strategy. Section 1256 contracts include futures, options on futures, and certain indexes like SPX and VIX and options on those indexes. Be sure to verify Section 1256 treatment and report with your broker and tax advisor. State Taxes An additional layer of the tax burden is at the state level. One way to avoid that is to live in one of the states with no income tax for individuals. These are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. You generally must file a federal tax return in those states. Keep in mind that the “tax-free” states tend to have higher excise, sales, and property taxes. You should consider your overall tax burden and affordability ranking if you’re thinking about moving to one of those states. Some traders live in multiple states and claim their “residency” in a tax-free state. That can get a little tricky as rules and enforcement will vary. You’ll need to keep good records of your time spent in the tax-free state and be sure to comply with all regulations for both states. Tax Splitting Regardless of where you live, it can be possible, legal, and common to create a separate entity, such as a C Corporation, that is domiciled in a tax-free state such as Nevada. Instead of capital gains bumping you into a higher marginal tax bracket as an individual, you could “tax split” and have the entity pay taxes on its gains at a lower Federal level and with no state taxes due. Typically, there are tax implications in your home state if you take income out of the entity for your use as an individual. But be aware that you can create and control a separate entity from yourself that has its own P/L for taxation purposes and that can reduce the overall tax burden. Summary Roth IRA.  If it’s available to you, think about maximizing it.  Outside of that, consider tax-deferred accounts, Section 1256, income splitting, and tax-free residency strategies as may be advantageous to your situation. Now That You Know About Lessening Your Tax Burden, Read On To Learn More About Options Trading Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.    If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com. Enjoy your day!
In Contrary To Others, DXY Is Likely To Feel Stable

In Contrary To Others, DXY Is Likely To Feel Stable

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 18.02.2022 16:25
  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Wondering How Inflation And Fed Reaction Will Affect Gold

Wondering How Inflation And Fed Reaction Will Affect Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.02.2022 16:05
  Not only won’t inflation end soon, it’s likely to remain high. Whether gold will be able to take advantage of it will depend, among others, on the Fed. Do you sometimes ask yourself when this will all end? I don’t mean the universe, nor our lives, nor even this year (c’mon, guys, it has just started!). I mean, of course, inflation. If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982, as the chart below shows. Now, the key question is how much higher inflation could rise, or how persistent it could be. The consensus is that we will see a peak this year and subsequent cooling down, but to still elevated levels. This is the view I also hold. However, would I bet my collection of precious metals on it? I don’t know, as inflation could surprise us again, just as it did to most of the economists (but not me) last year. The risk is clearly to the upside. As always in economics, it’s a matter of supply and demand. There is even a joke that all you need to turn a parrot into an economist is to teach it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’. Funny, huh? When it comes to the demand side, both the money supply growth and the evolution of personal saving rate implies some cooling down of inflation rate. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad money supply peaked in February 2021. Assuming a one-year lag between the money supply and price level, inflation rate should reach its peak somewhere in the first quarter of this year. There is one important caveat here: the pace of money supply growth has not returned to the pre-pandemic level, but it stabilized at about 13%, double the rate seen at the end of 2019. Inflation was then more or less at the Fed’s target of 2%, so without constraining money supply growth, the US central bank couldn’t beat inflation. As the chart above also shows, the personal saving rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 7-8%. It means that the bulk of pent-up demand has already materialized, which should also help to ease inflation in the future. However, not all of the ‘forced savings’ have already entered the market. Thus, personal consumption expenditures are likely to be elevated for some time, contributing to boosted inflation. Regarding supply factors, although some bottlenecks have eased, the disruptions have not been fully resolved. The spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and regional lockdowns in China could prolong the imbalances between booming demand and constrained supply. Other contributors to high inflation are rising producer prices, increasing house prices and rents, strong inflation expectations (see the chart below), and labor shortages combined with fast wage growth. The bottom line is that, all things considered – in particular high level of demand, continued supply issues, and de-anchored inflation expectations – I forecast another year of elevated inflation, but probably not as high as in 2021. After reaching a peak in a few months, the inflation rate could ease to, let’s say, around 4% in December, if we are lucky. Importantly, the moderate bond yields also suggest that inflation will ease somewhat later in 2022. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, I don’t have good news for the gold bulls. Gold loves high and accelerating inflation the most. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold peaks coincided historically with inflation heights. The most famous example is the inflation peak in early 1980, when gold ended its impressive rally and entered into a long bearish trend. The 2011 top also happened around the local inflationary peak. The only exception was the 2005 peak in inflation, when gold didn’t care and continued its bullish trend. However, this was partially possible thanks to the decline in the US dollar, which seems unlikely to repeat in the current macroeconomic environment, in which the Fed is clearly more hawkish than the ECB or other major central banks. The relatively strong greenback won’t help gold shine. Surely, disinflation may turn out to be transitory and inflation may increase again several months later. Lower inflation implies a less aggressive Fed, which should be supportive of gold prices. However, investors should remember that the US central bank will normalize its monetary policy no matter the inflation rate. Since the Great Recession, inflation has been moderate, but the Fed has tightened its stance eventually, nevertheless. Hence, gold may experience a harsh moment when inflation peaks. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
GBPUSD Chart - Green Candles On The Right Hand Side, USDCAD Moved Down A Little

GBPUSD Chart - Green Candles On The Right Hand Side, USDCAD Moved Down A Little

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.02.2022 08:53
GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart And Credit Markets Candles Nears Quite Low Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.02.2022 13:33
S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Pinterest (PINS) Stock News and Forecast: Earnings see shares rise, but can it continue?

Pinterest (PINS) Stock News and Forecast: Earnings see shares rise, but can it continue?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.02.2022 16:06
Pinterest shares rise over 12% in the premarket on Friday. PINS stock surges down to an earnings beat on the top and bottom lines. Pinterest shares remain in a long-term downtrend. Pinterest (PINS) reported strong earnings after the close Thursday night that saw the stock move up over 18% in afterhours trading. So far, most of those gains are holding early on Friday with PINS at $27.70. This represents a gain of 13% from Thursday's close. Pinterest Stock News Earnings per share came in at $0.49 versus consensus estimates for $0.45. Revenue hit $846.7 million versus consensus estimates of $827.2 million. The shares immediately jumped on the news. (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) "We took important steps in 2021 with the launch of our foundational technology to deliver a video-first publishing platform. And, I'm proud to say that for the first time, we surpassed $2 billion in revenue for the year — growing 52% over the previous year — and reached our first full-year of GAAP profitability," said Ben Silbermann, CEO and co-founder of Pinterest. PINS was set up for outperformance and the risk-reward was clearly to the upside. PINS stock had closed the regular session on Thursday down over 10% as the read-across from Facebook saw investors dump the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Just like Amazon, a surprise to the upside offered a better risk-reward profile, and so it proved with investors rushing to cover positions. Pinterest Stock Forecast Pinterest remains mired in a long-term downtrend. Paypal (PYPL) had been rumoured to be in discussion to acquire PINS back in October of last year. PINS shares had spiked to $65 on the rumour, but supposedly Paypal shareholders resisted and nothing ever happened. This led PINS shares on a steady downweard path ever since. The shares are down nearly 70% in the last year and 26% already this year. This move does not really do much to turn that trend around in our view. The big damage was done in the break of $32.34. That remains the bullish pivot. The first support is at $24.08. Pinterest (PINS) chart, (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) 20 hourly
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.02.2022 16:08
Gold hit fresh multi-month highs near the $1,910 on Monday but has since dropped back under the $1,900 handle. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices hit fresh multi-month highs near $1,910 on Monday during Asia Pacific session, but have again failed to hold north of the $1,900 handle. In recent trade, the precious metal has been caught going sideways in the mid-$1,890s, with the prospect for a fresh push higher again on Monday limited by the lack of market volume stateside. US markets are shut on Monday for Presidents Day so it is likely to be a very quiet US session. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. The Russian rouble has been coming under significant pressure on Monday, indicative of rising fears of a Russian invasion/military incursion into Ukraine that would trigger a round of sanctions from Western countries against Moscow. Violence between pro-Russia separatists and Ukraine’s military in the contested Donbass region continued on Monday, the former group upping the inflammatory rhetoric by accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling and planning a full-scale assault. This is keeping gold underpinned close to recent highs. At current levels in the mid-$1,890s, the precious metal trades close to flat on the day and only about 0.75% below earlier session highs. One bearish risk to note for gold is whether a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden goes ahead this week following recent chatter. The meeting could be a good opportunity to ease tensions somewhat. Otherwise, US data and Fed speak will be worth watching, but will, for the most part, still play second fiddle to the Ukraine crisis.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Altcoins unpause rally as BTC bounces

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Altcoins unpause rally as BTC bounces

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.02.2022 16:08
Bitcoin price is likely to retest $42,748 after bouncing off the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone. Ethereum price follows BTC and eyes the retest of $3,200. Ripple price kick-starts another consolidation, foreshadowing an explosive breakout to $1. Bitcoin price has retraced after failing to make it over a crucial hurdle. The downtrend was cut short, though, due to the presence of a demand zone. A bounce off this zone is likely to provide Ethereum, Ripple and other altcoin traders a brief opportunity to go long. Bitcoin price to attempt a relief rally Bitcoin price faced intense rejection as it approached the weekly supply zone extending from $45,550 to $51,860. This encounter resulted in a 17% drop to a daily demand zone, extending from $36,398 to $38,895. A retest of this support area is crucial as it will allow Bitcoin price a chance to retry, invalidating the weekly hurdle. From a conservative standpoint, this relief rally is capped at $45,550. In some cases, the uptrend could preemptively stop at $42,748. BTC/USD 1-day chart If Bitcoin price produces a daily candlestick close below $34,752, it will invalidate the bullish thesis and suggest the possibility of further descent. In this case, BTC could slide lower and retest $29,100, collecting the liquidity resting below it. Ethereum price barely survives Ethereum price is in the same boat as BTC as it was rejected by a daily supply zone, extending from $3,188 to $3,393. The resulting correction pushed ETH to an immediate support area, ranging from $2,608 to $2,812. Ethereum price came close to breaching this barrier but managed not to invalidate it. Going forward, ETH will continue to follow BTC’s footsteps and attempt a relief rally. The upside for the smart contract token is capped at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,973 or the lower limit of the supply zone at $3,188. A daily close above $3,393 will forecast a possible retest for Ethereum price at the $3,600 level. ETH/USD 1-day chart The breaking point for Ethereum would come with a daily close below the $2,324; this development could crash ETH price to $1,730 to collect liquidity resting below. Ethereum continues to face massive resistance cluster near $3,300, ETH consolidation likely Ripple price coils up again Ripple price has been consolidating since February 12 and is primed for another explosive breakout. An upside move seems likely considering the recent bullish outlook for bellwether influencer BTC. Market makers are likely to push the XRP price to retest the $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. However, if the bullish momentum flags, the remittance token could produce a local top below at $0.855. XRP/USD 12-hour chart A twelve-hour candlestick close beneath the $0.746 support level will indicate a bearish breakout is underway. This will invalidate the bullish thesis and likely see Ripple price knocked down to $0.679, thereby filling the fair value gap. XRP develops bullish continuation pattern before breakout to $1
UK100 Price Trades Below Levels Of The Week Before, Silver Price Raised Noticeably

UK100 Price Trades Below Levels Of The Week Before, Silver Price Raised Noticeably

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.02.2022 08:59
USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.
Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.02.2022 09:33
Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.02.2022 11:48
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD underpinned above $1900 as Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD underpinned above $1900 as Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.02.2022 15:58
After hitting fresh multi-month highs at $1914, spot gold is consolidating above $1900 as the Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates.As traders worry about the rising risk of a full-scale Russian military incursion into Ukraine, gold will likely remain supported.As the Russia/Ukraine crisis continues to escalate, most recently with Russia recognising the independence of and moving troops into two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, prompting NATO nations to announce/prepare new sanctions on Russia, gold has moved back above $1900. Spot prices (XAU/USD) hit fresh multi-month highs at $1914 on Tuesday and, though pulling back from these highs printed during Asia pacific trade as dip-buying facilitating an intra-day rebound in global equities markets, has remained above the key $1900 level.With market participants nervous that Russia/pro-Russia separatists in Eastern Ukraine could initiate further hostilities against Ukraine, thus further escalating the risk of an all-out Ukraine/Russia conflict, gold is likely to remain well underpinned this week. Brent oil spiked to close to $100 per barrel on Tuesday and EU natural gas prices were up sharply as Germany pledged not to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring gas directly to Germany from Russia. The upside risks posed to global inflation from any continued spike in energy prices as a result of further Russia/Ukraine crisis escalation is likely boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge.Recent Fed speak and US data releases have not had much of an impact on gold in recent days as price action takes its cue from geopolitics. Hawkish commentary from Fed’s Michelle Bowman on Monday, who essentially said she was still undecided as the whether the Fed should hike rates by 25 or 50bps in March, was roundly shrugged off. That suggests that other Fed speak this week is also likely to be ignored, or, at least, play second fiddle, with this also likely the case for Friday’s January US Core PCE inflation data. Ahead of that, traders should keep an eye on upcoming US PMI and CB Consumer Confidence surveys, both the flash readings for February.
Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2022 15:36
S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Terra (LUNA) Price Went Up And The Most Popular Crypto Increased By 3.6% On Tuesday

Terra (LUNA) Price Went Up And The Most Popular Crypto Increased By 3.6% On Tuesday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.02.2022 08:35
The rebound of bitcoin began along with the growth of European stock indices at the beginning of the day. They corrected up after three days of decline on the crisis around Ukraine. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with which BTC has been highly correlated lately, also showed gains on Tuesday. So far, the rebound of risky assets, which includes cryptocurrencies, can be considered as a movement within a downtrend. Bitcoin has been trying to correct from levels close to the lows of February, but this is probably not the bottom yet. Expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on all risky assets. Despite the rather low levels of the Cryptocurrency Fear Index, the history of the indicator suggests that the best moments to enter were periods of falling into the 10 area. Meanwhile, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest Mexican billionaires, called for not selling bitcoin during the fall. In his opinion, BTC will rise in the long term. Overall, Bitcoin is up 3.6% over the past day to 38,100, closing Tuesday higher after five days of decline. Ethereum gained 6.1% over the same time period, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from 4% growth in XRP to 13% in Terra. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the day to $1.79 trillion. Altcoins grew worse than the first cryptocurrency, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 40.3%. The index of fear and greed turned back again, losing 5 points to 25 and remaining in a state of "extreme fear".
How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 23.02.2022 12:11
Over the last several weeks, traders would have heard of and watched the unfolding Ukraine crisis. Russia built up a mass of troops and military hardware on the border, which started sending shockwaves through the markets that an invasion and new European conflict could be developing. This is not the first time we have seen Russian aggression towards Ukraine. In 2014 we all watched as Russia annexed Crimea after Moscow said it supported the liberty and backing the people’s free will as they wanted to rejoin Russia and break away from Ukraine. During this round, the situation felt and looked different due to the sheer build-up of the Russian military. Ukraine requesting to join NATO and the possibility of U.S./NАТО bases being built in Ukraine look like a flashpoint for the Russian side. Despite talks and negotiations, Russia continued to amass military close to the border, feeding invasion fears. Reasons continued to put out by the Kremlin, scheduled military exercises with Belarus. These failed to settle nerves as Western leaders continued to put forward prosed crippling sanctions that would be imposed if Russia invaded. The worst seemed possible late last week, and reports emerged of explosions and fighting in the two eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian tank numbers also increased, and we all thought it was just a matter of when we would see a Russian invasion. Biden offered Putin a summit only if he hadn’t invaded at the final hour. This is off the table now that Russia has once again pulled off another Crimea to a degree. Yesterday we heard that the two Eastern areas of Ukraine had voiced their right to become independent. The Kremlin supported them immediately and advised it had crossed the border to support a peaceful transition with a peacekeeping mission. In other words, a proxy invasion. President Biden has called this an invasion of Ukraine and announced sweeping sanctions on the Russian bank VEB and its military bank and cuts them out of any USD transactions. Individual sanctions, Biden said the adult children and members of Putin’s inner circle “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.” The sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt expand upon Biden’s existing restrictions set in 2021 and prohibit American banks from trading shares in and or lending to several significant Russian sovereign debt funds. Prime Minister Johnson also made good on his threat of sanctions. The first tranche of sanctions would target Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. The new sanctions also include three “very high net worth” individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. Germany has halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to Russia’s actions, and the EU has agreed on sanctions to hurt Russia. The crisis had a significant impact on the markets. As you would expect, we have seen plenty of movement away from risk markets, but it hasn’t been totally black and white. Energy, oil has been driven higher during the crisis, and we’ve watched USOUSD (WTI) jump by 28% in the last three months. Price trading at $96 this week. Spot gas surged this week, hitting 6.70 but has pulled back to 4.31. Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe. This is a major card they hold. Traders will be watching oil and gas as any new aggression could cause oil to spike. We could even see $100 or higher reached again. The markets are a funny beast, and if they see the situation as calm, don’t be surprised if we continue to see price pullback. Sky-high oil prices could impact the FED. Crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. A surge in oil could cause the Fed to rethink its pace of hiking due to growth concerns. FX, the USD and JPY have seen phases of demand during the crisis, but they have been far from dominant. Looking at this month’s trade so far, we can see that mainly the EUR has been most affected with falls to the two safe-havens. The GBP has been flat, and the AUD has been stronger. The AUD rallied yesterday as the situation developed and so far looks to be ignoring the situation. If we had seen an all-out invasion and this could still be a possibility, we would expect a traditional reaction on FX with the USD and JPY rallying on safe-haven demand. Gold has seen strong demand during the crisis. Traders jumping back into the metal as it moves back to a safe haven. This is not strange. Gold has always had multiple functions in the market, and in times of war or crisis, traders can look to it over fiat. Looking at the current month on the monthly chart, we can see this clearly in action as price has jumped by over 5%. The weekly shows a triangle breakout, but we will need to watch ongoing developments to see if buyer momentum remains. The Ukrainian crisis has hit stock indexes that could have been seen as overvalued. The Dax, in particular, has been hit hard. U.S. and Asian indexes haven’t been spared with heavy selling over the last two weeks. Markets fought back yesterday after the SP500 touched correction territory, and as mentioned above, traders will be focusing on the escalation of the crisis. If the situation intensifies, we would be looking for further lows, and if things continue to calm down, we could see counter-rallies and ranges set up. Cryptocurrencies have traded mainly lower during the crisis. Clearly, we can see at this point that they’re viewed as risk assets and are acting accordingly. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic, Kyber has added 38% YTD and so far has resisted the falls we have seen on the top 10 and top 25 indexes. Coins have been firmer since Tuesday’s updates, following other risk markets higher. Polkadot, Cardando were two top ten coins that hit new lows for 2022 before value buying returned this week. Again, we see the fortunes of most coins tied to risk demand. If things escalate, we will be looking for further declines across the top 10 and 25. The post How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far appeared first on Eightcap.
Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration is moving the headquarters of the Customs Department VI and two organizational units of the Masovian Customs and Tax Office to Żerań, to the OKAM investment

Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration is moving the headquarters of the Customs Department VI and two organizational units of the Masovian Customs and Tax Office to Żerań, to the OKAM investment

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.02.2022 15:53
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 23.02.2022Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration has leased over 640 sq m. of office space with a 2000 sq m. square located next to the office building for its subordinate unit in the OKAM investment in Warsaw district of Żerań.The Chamber was looking for a location that would allow for the lease of both office space and a suitable area for customs clearance for the Customs Department VI in Warsaw, currently located in the Targówek district.These conditions were met by the warehouse, production and office complex located on the site of the former car factory at Jagiellońska Street in Warsaw.- The Chamber planned to relocate to a new office. However, the property also had to guarantee efficient logistics related to the customs clearance of goods. The infrastructure of the mixed-use complex in Żerań, its unique character on the scale of the entire Warsaw agglomeration, made it possible to fully meet the tenant's requirements. The profile of the investment allowed for a full consolidation and concentration the activities of the institution and its administration in one place - informs Piotr Szymoński, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz, the company which represented the landlord during the transaction.The new headquarters of the Customs Department VI in Warsaw and two organizational units of MCTO, they plan to move into next month, is located in a four-storey building, with a total of over 3100 sq m. of space.- Warsaw market offers many attractive spaces, which is why we feel all the more distinguished by the choice of our investment in Żerań by the Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration. We hope that the office space leased by the Chamber along with the adjacent square will meet all of the current and future expectations of the organization. Our project in Żerań will also actively develop with our tenants and their needs in mind – says Arie Koren, CEO of OKAM City.OKAM investment in Żerań provides both office, retail and commercial space, as well as warehouse space, the height of which exceeds even 20 meters. It also has paved areas of high load capacity, intended for exhibition squares and parking lots.Most of the lease space in the complex is characterized by a great variety in terms of the offered parameters. - This makes the location a great choice for customers looking for space with different functions and non-standard dimensions in one investment - says Piotr Szymoński. The location provides direct access to the S8 route. The center of Warsaw can be reached within 20 minutes from the OKAM investment. Bus and tram stops as well as bicycle paths are located 250 m from the entrance to the complex. About Walter HerzWalter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects.In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice. About OKAMOKAM Capital has been a leader among the real estate development companies for over 17 years. The company specializes in residential and commercial construction. OKAM portfolio includes 25 projects in 7 cities in Poland, such as Strefa PROGRESS in Łódź, INCITY and CITYFLOW in Warsaw district of Wola, MOKKA, VISTA and CENTRAL HOUSE in Mokotów, ARLET HOUSE in Ochota, ŻOLI ŻOLI in Żoliborz, BOHEMA - Strefa Praga in Praga Północ and 62 ha in Warsaw district of Żerań. In Katowice, the company is implementing investments in Dolina Trzech Stawów: DOM W DOLINIE TRZECH STAWÓW and INSPIRE. The assets of OKAM also include historic tenement houses in the center of Katowice as well as in Cracow.At the end of 2018, OKAM introduced the New Quality Policy as an expression of corporate social responsibility. Starting with the CENTRAL HOUSE investment, all OKAM residential investments will be equipped with pro-ecological and functional solutions supporting climate protection and improving the comfort of living, such as electric vehicle rental, bicycle rental, air purifiers, solar panels, systems for reusing rainwater, etc.
Let‘s Try Again

Let‘s Try Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Miners for Breakfast, Gold for Dessert: Bearish Fundamentals Will Hurt

Miners for Breakfast, Gold for Dessert: Bearish Fundamentals Will Hurt

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 23.02.2022 15:59
  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Final Target Hit on NYMEX Natural Gas!

Final Target Hit on NYMEX Natural Gas!

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 23.02.2022 16:59
  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USOIL (WTI) Increased As Expected. NZDUSD And AUDUSD Went Down

USOIL (WTI) Increased As Expected. NZDUSD And AUDUSD Went Down

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.02.2022 09:02
USOIL continues to climb WTI crude surged after Russia launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine. The latest market jitters met support over 90.70 which sits next to the 20-day moving average. Sentiment would stay optimistic as long as price action is above this demand zone. A previous horizontal consolidation allowed the bulls to catch their breath and accumulate for the current push. A close above 95.50 would send the price towards the landmark 100.00. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pause if momentum traders take profit. NZDUSD hits resistance The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ raised rates for the third time in a row. The pair met selling pressure in the supply zone (0.6810) from the sell-off in late January. An overextended RSI led short-term bulls to take profit in that congestion area. However, the rebound trajectory may attract buying interest with the current pullback seen as an opportunity. 0.6680 is the next support after a drop below 0.6730. A deeper correction may test 0.6600, which is important support from the daily chart. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats amid cautious market sentiment. A break above the recent peak at 0.7245 suggests a strong bullish commitment. The pair is heading towards January’s high at 0.7310. A bullish breakout could turn things around in the medium term. After the RSI ventured into the overbought area, the bullish impetus stalled as intraday buyers took profit. 0.7165 is the next support as the RSI swings into the oversold area. Further down, 0.7100 is a key floor to keep the rebound intact.
(WETH) Wrapped Ether Explained. What Is It?

Crypto Update: Ethereum returns to support after a horror day

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 24.02.2022 11:34
Today the worst-case scenario happened, Russia invaded Ukraine. This set off another round of heavy selling on the Crypto markets. The top 10 suffered badly with just over 11% taken off their value at the day’s low. Ethereum was one of the worst-hit in the top 10, price plunged just over 12% to its new low. Currently, we’re watching the 2,350 support as this level did show plenty of demand back in January on the last key low set by sellers. Price so far, for now, has continued to see some demand at this point but let’s be honest these are not normal times. Crypto at this point is far from an alternative store of wealth. Coins are not in a safe-haven class at the moment, they’re flat out risk assets and are being treated that way. Gold on the other hand has resumed its safe-haven status. This is not a knock or attack on Crypto just the reality of the situation. Back to the Ethereum d1 chart. While I’d love to back in the current support level it’s hard under the current circumstances. Escalations could send prices lower and a break of support could set up a move back to the Jan low and a move through that point could suggest 2,000. If support can hold and things in Europe start to stabilize a little we could see a recovery rally. We will be looking for long tails showing exhaustion and fresh demand emerging. But we stress any longs will need to be quick-thinking if sellers return en masse. Ethereum D1 (ETHUSD) The post Crypto Update: Ethereum returns to support after a horror day appeared first on Eightcap.
It Begins

It Begins

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Will War Change How We Spend Or Invest Our Money?

Will War Change How We Spend Or Invest Our Money?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.02.2022 22:23
I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form?

Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.02.2022 06:30
Today we’re starting to watch what could be a developing reversal pattern on the NDX100 D1 chart. I’m sure we’re all aware of the disaster that the markets faced yesterday. The script went to que as we watched stock indexes plunge after news that Russia had invaded Ukraine hit the markets. This continued what had been a long sharp downtrend on the NDX100 and other major stock indexes. But what a lot of us may not have seen coming was a risk recovery late in the US session. Not only did stock indexes reverse losses but other risk markets followed and safe havens plunged, refer to gold. Why did we see the change in momentum? Could markets have simply reached a value point and shaken off the news? Could news of Russia offering to sit down and talk with Ukrain spurred buyer interest? Regardless of the reason it happened, now we are looking at levels and patterns being formed to start trying to form some opinion of the current picture. Firstly, we can see that the low stopped in a demand area and for now price closed firmly above the test. Another pattern we are starting to watch is in early development but has started to show some shape. That pattern is an inverse head and shoulders and these can be reversal patterns. Yes, we have the first shoulder and a head but we still need a second shoulder and a break of a neckline to fully confirm a completed pattern. It’s definitely something to keep in mind but as mentioned it’s still a fair way off. For now, we want to see buyers continue to post gains to show control, traders still need to keep the macro situation in mind as any escalations could resume the selling. NDX100 D1 Chart The post Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form? appeared first on Eightcap.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors fleeing cryptocurrencies as residents flee Kyiv

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors fleeing cryptocurrencies as residents flee Kyiv

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.02.2022 16:16
Bitcoin price drops 7% on geopolitical news but is close to offering a nice entry-level. Ethereum price deteriorates 10% for the day and still has 7% to go before some solid support is present. XRP price sees early price bounce-off but might be too soon as better entry levels are present further down the line. Cryptocurrencies are waking up to a shocker this morning as the whole Eastern border of Ukraine is under siege of missile attacks by Russia and Belarus. This afternoon, NATO and the EU are scrambling for emergency meetings to further retaliate with sanctions cutting off Russia entirely from the financial system. In the meantime, investors are hoarding cash and pulling out their money into safe havens, but in the process, offering some lovely entry levels for the longer term. Bitcoin price breaks below $36,709 and looks to test support at $32,650, below $33,000 The Bitcoin (BTC) price got slaughtered this morning as the Russian offensive started in early trading hours, shedding 7% of its market value. As it is looking for support, it will be vital for market participants to await the right time to execute any trades. It is too late now for both bears and bulls to get in as markets will or could go either way, and both parties are better off waiting for the right entry-level. BTC price will favour bulls with an entry below the $34,000 key-level as above, for now, no actual entry points are offered. At $32,650, a solid entry-level is offered, going back to June 25. With this, BTC price would need to shed another 5% on top of the 7% it has already lost in early morning trading. Expect this to unfold once the US sessions kicks in and further deterioration of asset prices happens across the board. BTC/USD daily chart Should Putin step up military action, expect to see further deterioration of price action in several asset classes, certainly when civilian casualties are reported. Expect $32,650 to be breached and see BTC further deepen its losses towards $31,322. Following that, the famous distribution zone will have been entered, and short-term bulls and long-term investors will be buying up bits and pieces of the price action for a rebound once the situation stabilises. Ethereum bulls should open up their wallets as price action is set to offer some great entry points Ethereum (ETH) price is nearing some interesting levels as price action dips to the downside in an accelerated move as Russian troops are attacking several important cities in Ukraine. Whilst Europe tries to deal with the situation, more reports have come in of several critical Ukrainian military installations being fired upon by missiles and mortars. Putin proclaimed conducting a military surgical operation to demilitarise the country and succeed. ETH price gets under pressure as investors hoard cash and kick out any risky asset in the process, as Ethereum already lost 10% in early morning trading. Expect more downside to come towards $2,148, losing 18% of its value in the process. At the same time, this is an excellent window of opportunity for investors to buy ETH coins at a very lucrative discount once the situation stabilises. ETH/USD daily chart As this story develops further into the trading day, expect to see a deterioration of ETH price action towards $1,928 or even $1,688 – breaching $2,000, should more reports come in from Russian troops entering mainland Ukraine and taking over control of key cities. That would mean that ETH is set to lose another 17% to 25% in the process as the US session will be expected to deepen the loss intraday. In the meantime, Ethereum price action has entered a distribution zone, offering an excellent opportunity for investors to start building a stake in for any upside potential to come. XRP price is at risk of losing another 25% as first support is being tested Ripple's (XRP) price sees an initial bounce off the $0.6264 level this morning as Europe awakes to some severe military threats spilling over into global markets with risk assets being slashed across the board. XRP price action already shredded 10% at the time of writing and is seen bouncing off technically and recovering back to more moderate levels – but still holding heavy losses. As the situation further develops, expect cryptocurrencies to react instantly in both directions as more headlines and news hit the wires today. Expect $0.6264 not to withstand further selling pressure since the situation remains fragile. As possible combat headlines start to accelerate, expect to see another dip lower in XRP to $0.5852 or even $0.5231, adding another 6% to 16% of losses to the price action. With this, the Relative Strength Index will be diving deeply into oversold territory, making this area an excellent entry level for investors going long once the situation dies down and the market falls back to a more normal level. XRP/USD daily chart In the worst case, XRP could dip below $0.50 and tick $0.48 in the process, the lowest level since June 2021. Depending on the situation expect to see bulls either waiting and holding, or taking the bounce off the historic $0.48 level and the monthly S1 support level, which they may use as a point of entry for going long if the situation calms down in the near future.
Crude Oil (WTI) Doesn't Hit THAT High Levels, SPX And Credit Markets Trade Quite Low

Crude Oil (WTI) Doesn't Hit THAT High Levels, SPX And Credit Markets Trade Quite Low

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.02.2022 15:56
S&P 500 recovered the steep losses as the shock was replaced with relief over the international response. Safe haven bids largely disappeared, and can be counted on remaining pressured – this concerns precious metals and crude oil. Credit markets – for all their downswing and forcing the Fed‘s hand through higher yields – have turned risk-on yesterday, but that got reflected just in the tech upswing as value didn‘t close the opening gap. But that would happen today as money flows out of the dollar hiding, and VIX can be counted on to stay much calmer than it was yesterday, in the days to come – that‘s what I tweeted late yesterday. Today‘s inflation data (core PCE) is going to take a backseat to geopolitics as uncertainty about where these tensions could lead, is getting removed in the markets‘ mind – especially as regards the international ramifications. Good to have taken sizable gold and oil profits off the table yesterday, well before the risk premiums were gone – fresh portfolio high has been reached. Remember that in times of high volatility, dialing back your exposure, your risk, is essential to proper risk management. Please have a good look at my style of open trade and money management if you haven‘t already so as to make the most of what I‘m doing. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Now, this looks a lot more as an S&P 500 bottom – volatility appears to be staying elevated but headed down next. Neutral to bullish outlook for today but downswings are likely to be repelled. Credit Markets HYG is marking the risk-on turn clearly, and volume was also solid. Credit markets won‘t be standing in the way of stock market upswing today, I think. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals ominous lower knot would have consequences for the days to come – but we have seen upswing rejection only, not a downside reversal. When miners catch their breath again, the move higher can continue. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing has been rejected, but the long base building goes on, and black gold can be counted on to extend gains even when the dust settles down. Copper Copper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving – yesterday‘s words are still true today, but I am looking for a longer base building here than in crude oil. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning the corner, and the worst looks to be in here as well – yesterday‘s attempt to put in a low was successful. Summary S&P 500 turned around, and the bottom appears to be in. Unless a fresh and entangling escalation materializes (not likely), the markets are willing to shake it off, and erase yesterday‘s downswing. As chips (and international response) fall where they may, the tense air is being removed as markets abhor uncertainty the most. Risk premiums are evaporating, and until the Fed and yields come back into the spotlight, the odds favor risk-on muddying through ahead in the days to follow. The inflation chickens haven‘t though come home to roost, and that has continued bullish implications for real assets. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Reviewing Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP) And Ether (ETH)

Reviewing Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP) And Ether (ETH)

Jason Sen Jason Sen 28.02.2022 08:36
Bitcoin doing very little after holding 300 pips above my next target of 34000. Ripple trying a break above 7270/7370 for a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. Ethereum tests resistance at 2790/2810. Shorts need stops above 2870. A break higher is a buy signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin beat first resistance at 36300/400 to test second resistance at 39400/450 but struggling here. Bulls need a break above 40000 to target the 500 day moving average at 42000/200. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 44100/400. Holding second resistance at 39400/450 targets 38000/37800. If we continue lower look for 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34400/34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of very strong support at 100 week moving average at 33000/800 (today's value). Ripple unexpectedly beat strong resistance at 7270/7370 for a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. If we continue higher look for quite strong resistance at 8000/8100. Shorts need stops above 8200 for a buy signal. Minor support at 7300/7280 but below here can target targets 7090/70, perhaps as far as support at 6890/6870. Ethereum runs as far as resistance at 2790/2810. A high for the weekend possible here but shorts need stops above 2870. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 2900/2920 & probably resistance at 3025/55. Strong support from 2660 down to 2560 should now hold the downside. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.02.2022 16:02
Bitcoin price is behaving very well this stormy Monday morning as global markets are under pressure from sanctions against Russia. BTC sees elevated interest as people in Russia dive into Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment. Expect this interest to add to more popularity for Bitcoin as long as the current sanctions are imposed on Russia and its ruble. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding it together all-in-all quite well as price action dipped lower over the weekend but is back up for the day as Bitcoin sees an uptick in demand at the start of the week. That demand comes from Russian people using Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment as the local currency has devalued considerably, and several sanctions are making it impossible to use FX alternatives. With this renewed interest, expect to see BTC price action rise towards $39,780, holding a 10% profit potential. Bitcoin regains the needed attention it deserves Over the weekend, price action got rejected to the downside and saw a 7% devaluation. Yet with the introduction of several sanctions onRussia, significant demand is being seen for Bitcoin as Russians seek alternative payment methods as their own currency has devalued sharply by 20% on Monday morning, and foreign currencies are forbidden as a form of payment. This is the perfect background for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to get renewed positive attention. Several Russians will be opening a crypto wallet and buying into Bitcoin price action, which could propel price action towards $39,780 in the first phase.once Bitcoin becomes the standard form of payment in Russia, and as the Relative Strength Index still has plenty of room to go, expect to see a further move to the upside, hitting $41,756 in the near term. BTC/USD daily chart Depending on the current peace talks underway this afternoon between Russia and Ukraine, expect to see a possible dip back towards $38,073 or even $36,709 as the supportive baseline in these past few days. Should the situation deteriorate again and see renewed attacks – and even the use of Russian nuclear weapons – expect to see a sharp nosedive move towards $32,650, nearing the distribution zone from a few months ago. With that move, the Relative Strength Index will have entered the oversold area, however, suggesting an increased likelihood of an eventual recovery.
S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 08:31
Bitcoin made a powerful leap up after assurances from the owners of the largest crypto exchanges, Binance, Kraken, KuCoin and AAX, that they do not intend to block the funds of individual Russians. However, the head of Kraken warned that they would abide by the regulator's decision if it comes.Overnight, the United States noted that they would stop attempts to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent personal sanctions. So, retail clients of large crypto exchanges are not yet afraid for their funds. This probably explains the latest growth momentum.Technically, Bitcoin broke through the upper limit of the four-month descending channel at the close of the month. Moderate optimism of Asian and US indices is also on the side of buyers.February was confirmed to be a growing month for bitcoin. However, March is not so favourable. Over the past 11 years, BTC ended this month with growth only in two cases.Disabling Russia from SWIFT will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, says Jiang Zhuer, CEO of the BTC.TOP pool. In his opinion, Russia can use various methods to circumvent restrictions, including digital assets, to make payments. Bank of America does not see the prerequisites for a large-scale crypto winter, as evidenced by the dynamics of the movement of cryptocurrencies between private and exchange wallets. The level of acceptance of crypto assets by users is also growing, as well as the activity of developers.Bitcoin jumped 10.8% on Monday to $41,600, the highest gain in five months. On Tuesday morning, the momentum continued with a jump to $44,000 at the start of the day. At the time of writing, prices have stabilized around $43,200. Ethereum added 7.9%, while other top-ten altcoins rose from 6.3% (XRP) to 15.3 % (Terra).The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 11% over the day, to $1.9 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 43% due to the smaller strengthening of altcoins.The crypto-currency fear and greed index soared 31 points to 51 on the day, moving out of fear into neutral territory.Although Bitcoin showed negative dynamics for most of the month, the shock growth at the end of it allowed BTC to end February with strengthening (+8.6%) after three months of decline.
What to do with your free capital in Russia

What to do with your free capital in Russia

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 13:30
The main question that ruble traders ask themselves is whether the Central Bank managed to prevent a collapse in the exchange rate? At the moment, the euro is officially worth 104.4, and the dollar is 93.5.According to a leading analyst at FxPro, the ruble is recovering from the second shock wave that hit on Monday, when the Central Bank was unable to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. The dollar and the euro declined somewhat, but these levels still can hardly be called sustainable. An increase in the interest rate has a relatively long-term effect, while a liquidity crisis affects quotes "here and now".A steady reversal to growth in the Russian currency should be expected no earlier than when we receive reliable signals from the EU and the US. Until then, downward impulses may alternate with relatively short pullback periods. In our opinion, some stabilization of the exchange rate may occur in the range of 100-110 since this is a low enough level for traders to start picking up the ruble in the short term. Of course, this is only if we exclude the scenario of further tightening of sanctions.There is another issue that worries the consumers who are now in Russia. We are talking, among other things, about foreign citizens who came to Russia to do business or for personal reasons. Many of them have free balances in the region of 100 thousand rubbles in their bank accounts. As a rule, businesspeople short-term invest capital or acquire their own currency. The question arises of what to do with this capital now.In our opinion, it is better to save free money for force majeure, since in the current circumstances, it is worth increasing the capital and abandoning all unplanned purchases. If you are in Russia, then it is better to keep your savings in rubbles since it is not profitable to buy currency in banks now, as the exchange rate difference is too large.Of course, in the coming weeks and months, equipment, and all imported goods in the territory of the Russian Federation will rise in price significantly. At the same time, the value of cash soon may manifest itself more than ever. This is confirmed by queues at ATMs and multiple increases in cash in the hands of Russians.Many right now are looking towards buying a new car from a showroom with the prospect of selling it in a few months at a higher price (considering the sanctions).If your capital is even larger, it perhaps remains only to wait since the withdrawal to foreign accounts is limited. Thus, Russian residents will not be able to credit foreign currency to their accounts and deposits in foreign banks and brokers. The ban takes effect today.
Told You, Risk On

Told You, Risk On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.03.2022 15:45
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Important Releases - US Crude Oil Inventories And CPI Of EU Amid Military Events

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Important Releases - US Crude Oil Inventories And CPI Of EU Amid Military Events

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 01.03.2022 18:51
Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM - 02/03/2022 Europeans may stay awake as shortly after midnight Australian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) is going to be announced. The previous indicator hit -1.9% Heading to Europe – at 8:55 a.m. we get to know German Unemployment Change (February) which previously reached -48K. About one hour later Europeans will be provided with the CPI indicator wondering whether it will go back from the level of 5.1% According to Investing.com, we can expect that British Annual Budget Release will be known tomorrow and what we’re sure of, there are many events to watch in the United States. Even if we don’t care about ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which will be released at 1:15 p.m., many will follow the testimony of Fed’s Jerome Powell at 3 p.m. followed by Crude Oil Inventories (prev. 4.515M) to be released half an hour later. In Canada, at 3 p.m. Bank of Canada will release its Interest Rate Decision. The previous Interest Rate was 0.25% Wednesday (2nd March) is a day free for Brazilians, so don’t expect any news coming from this country in LATAM. Time: GMT Data: Investing.com
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Jing Ren Jing Ren 02.03.2022 09:06
XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.
Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Getting Rid Of Russian Commodities Affects And Will Affect Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 10:04
Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.03.2022 21:33
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                            Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish         Total Change 14570 6383 9330 -2947     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 11,551 contracts, having fallen by 2,218 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,580 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 7,580 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar continues. Total net positions have declined by 2,947 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 9,330 short positions and adding 6,383 long positions. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 7,469 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. This upward movement is forming a channel pattern, which may be a correction in the current downtrend trend that we can see on the daily or weekly chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:34
The S&P 500 index topped the 4,400 level yesterday despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Will the uptrend continue?The broad stock market index gained 1.86% on Wednesday following its Tuesday’s decline of 1.6%, as it fluctuated following last week’s rebound from the new medium-term low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. So the sentiment improved recently, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Yesterday the index went slightly above the 4,400 level and it was the highest since Feb. 17.For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.6% higher following better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number release. However, we may see some more volatility.The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above the downward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Futures Contract Trades Along the Local HighsLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. And since Friday it was trading along the 4,300 mark. This morning it is trading along the local highs.We are maintaining our profitable long position, as we are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index will likely open 0.6% higher this morning. We may see more short-term fluctuations and obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high.We are maintaining our profitable long position.We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:44
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Surging Commodities

Surging Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See

S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 03.03.2022 21:38
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 08:28
The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.03.2022 09:19
USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.
Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Silver is consolidating close to multi-month highs not far below $25.50 as markets remain intensely focused on the Ukraine conflict. Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle. Upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services on Thursday, NFP on Friday) will play second fiddle for geopolitics. Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are consolidating close to multi-month highs with the $25.50 per troy ounce mark for now acting as resistance, but ongoing nervousness about the ongoing Ukraine conflict and its economic impact underpinning the safe-haven metal for now. At current levels in the $25.30s, spot silver trades broadly flat on the day, with focus for now on talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the hopes that some sort of ceasefire might be in the offing. Given maximalist demands still being made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, demands which the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to accept, hopes that a broad ceasefire agreement can be reached are slim. That suggests no end in sight for the rally in the prices of commodities exported by Russia (oil, gas, various agricultural products and base metals), which will likely keep assets deemed as offering inflation protection in demand (like silver). Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle, a pattern that is more often than not indicative of a bullish breakout. Technical buying on a break above the $25.50 could dovetail nicely with the fundamentals if the Ukraine conflict continues to intensify and Western nations are expected to continue tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Silver can move aggressively and some bulls likely have their sights set on mid-2021 highs in the $28.00 area. With focus so heavily on geopolitics, upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services PMI on Thursday and the official jobs report on Friday) and the second day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress will take something of a back seat. Powell explained on Wednesday that current uncertainties regarding the impact of the Ukraine war would not deter the Fed from getting moving regarding removing policy stimulus. An expected strong jobs report on Friday should support this stance and probably won’t dent silver’s near-term appeal much.
Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 03.03.2022 16:10
  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Strong jobs growth refreshed Dollar's boost 

Strong jobs growth refreshed Dollar's boost 

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 15:20
The US labour market added 678K jobs outside the agricultural sector in February. This is higher than the expected 400K. In addition, last month's estimates were improved, which also adds strength to the fresh data.Hourly earnings were virtually flat over the month, with year-on-year growth slowing to 5.1% vs. +0.6% and 5.5%, respectively.The slowdown in wages while hiring accelerates seems due to the economy re-opening on the easing of coronavirus restrictions, which is bringing more low-paid workers back into the market.The FxPro analyst team, mentioned, that the publication of the employment data accelerated the dollar's gains, bringing it to 1.15% today and 2.4% so far this week. The EURUSD, which started the day near 1.1060, has slipped below 1.0900 at the time of writing, hitting lows since May 2020 and almost erasing the gains from the sharp pandemic phase.Next, Europe, as after the global financial crisis, could face a severe recession, which would increase the interest rate differential in the eurozone and the USA and encourage a flow of investors to the US dollar in addition to capital flows on the back of military action. 
Back to Risk-Off

Back to Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.03.2022 16:07
Red flags for Shiba Inu as three bearish strikes are putting SHIB on track for a 17% loss. Markets, in general, are moving into hibernation mode to overcome the rising tensions in Ukraine.Expect the downtrend to continue until the floor is reached at around $0.00002100.Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is under the scrutiny of bears as bulls have given away their upper hand and are falling over each other to get out of SHIB price action as it tanks for a third consecutive day. With three bearish signals on the technical front and failed peace talks again between Russia and Ukraine, the background looks set for more downturns to come. From the opening price today, SHIB price action is set to correct another 17% before the current intermediary floor is reached for a test of $0.00002100.SHIB price action is going along with global markets and sees safe-haven bids outweigh the upside potentialShiba Inu price action is under siege by bears after a series of bearish coups overtook price action. On Wednesday, the first negative signal came from a false break and bull trap, at $0.00002707 and the monthly pivot. Bulls broke above but got washed out of their positions by bears, pushing price action below the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002600. The SMA in its turn again triggered a rejection at the top side on Thursday with bulls being squeezed out of their positions.The pain for SHIB bulls looks far from over as in early morning trading during the ASIA PAC session, strike three was delivered with a break below the low of yesterday, leading to price action dangling above an abyss of around 17%. The first and only real solid support to the downside is at around $0.00002100, with the green ascending trendline holding five solid tests proving that it is a line in the sand where bulls will engage in full force to uphold price action from falling further. The psychological $0.00002000 should add to the strength of the level, but an eventful weekend could see a further crackdown towards $0.00001883 at the monthly S1 support level.SHIB/USD daily chartAs said in the introductory statement, all this results from the Ukraine situation and global markets further going into safe-haven mode. All it would take are just some flairs of positive news alluding to a solution in Ukraine that would trigger a quick and smooth turnaround back towards $0.00002800. With that move, not only would the red descending trend line at the top side be broken, but as well the 78.6% Fibonacci level would come into play, opening the door for more upside to come.
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.03.2022 16:14
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
What Are Airdrops?

What Are Airdrops?

Decrypt Media Decrypt Media 04.03.2022 00:50
Airdrops are a method of distributing tokens to users. They are commonly used to generate buzz around a project, reward users for certain behaviours and or create a community. They are popular with projects big and small, but US regulatory authorities are concerned they circumvent tax laws.
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.03.2022 15:47
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with. If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 setback was repelled on Friday, but I‘m looking for the subsequent upswing to fizzle out – we still have to go down in Mar, and that would be the low. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects. This doesn‘t bode well for the S&P 500 bulls. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – my Friday‘s sentence is still fitting today. I‘m looking for further price gains – the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing still hasn‘t lost steam, and still can surprise on the upside. Slowdown in the pace of gains, or a sideways consolidation, would be the healthy move next. Jittery nerves can calm down a little today. Copper Copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals, which are one of the key engines of commodities appreciation. The run is respectable, and happening on quite healthy volume – if we don‘t see its meaningful consolidation soon, the red metal would be finally breaking out of its long range here. Bitcoin and Ethereum While I wasn‘t expecting miracles Friday or through the weekend, cryptos are stabilizing, and can extend very modest gains today and tomorrow. Summary S&P 500 is likely to rise next, only to crater lower still this month. It may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Cryptocurrencies Won’t Help Russia Evade Sanctions

Cryptocurrencies Won’t Help Russia Evade Sanctions

Decrypt Media Decrypt Media 05.03.2022 17:01
Contrary to the warnings of Senator Elizabeth Warren, crypto is actually a bad tool for hiding money and skirting sanctions.
Dolphin Entertainment to Produce TV Shows, Games, Music With Flower Girls Ethereum NFTs

Dolphin Entertainment to Produce TV Shows, Games, Music With Flower Girls Ethereum NFTs

Decrypt Media Decrypt Media 06.03.2022 20:18
The female-led NFT collection boasts Gwyneth Paltrow, Eva Longoria, and Gary Vaynerchuck as holders.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 21:35
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell 1,310 contracts last week. This change is the result of 35 contracts increase in long positions and a 1,345 contracts increase in short positions. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Decreases in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.   Following Russia's invasion to Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. This means that especially the euro and the pound are weakening. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strengthening due to rising prices of commodities that these countries export. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish         Total change 28093 16484 -23871 40355     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 64,939 contracts last week, which is an increase by 5,633 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,190 contracts and an increase in short positions by 8,557 contracts. These data suggest continued bullish sentiment in the euro. Open interest, which has increased by 23,293 contracts in the last week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. The euro is weakening sharply under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. In a strong downtrend it is very risky to try to catch the bottom and open bullish long positions.  Long-term resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1010. Next resistance is near 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.0640-1.0700 The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish         Total change 28635 7919 8009 -90     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to -337 contracts, having increased by 5,472 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,430 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 42 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment, but it is weak as the total net positions of large speculators increased. Open interest, which rose by 23,426 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3270-1.3300.  Next resistance is near 1.3420 – 1.3440. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3150 – 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish         Total change 8531 3669 -6449 10118     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 78,336 contracts, up by 5,744 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,167 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,577 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. However, last week we saw a decline in open interest by 2,912 contracts. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week in the AUDUSD was weak because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar has been strengthening strongly recently, which is explained by the rise in the prices of commodities that Australia exports. These commodities include coal, gas and gold.  Long-term resistance: 0.7520-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish         Total change 5662 -1127 4714 -5841     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached a value of - 14,172 contracts, having fallen by 2,621 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,858 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,237 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the NZD continues. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 6,247 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the price action was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and risk off sentiment. What helped the NZD rise are rising prices of commodities  such as milk, which New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 07.03.2022 16:45
  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

Jing Ren Jing Ren 08.03.2022 09:29
USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.
The Internet of Money - Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) & Seesaw Protocol (SSW)

The Internet of Money - Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) & Seesaw Protocol (SSW)

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 07.03.2022 15:18
Humanity has reached a time where you can literally create your own financial success. The Crypto metaverse has created a revolutionary impact by providing individuals with the opportunity to multiply the money that they have significantly. If you’re ready to dive into the internet of money, be sure to keep your eyes on these three goldmines: Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) & Seesaw Protocol (SSW). For millenia, institutions, democracy, banking and education have all been organised around hierarchical structures. In these hierarchies, these bureaucracies of people, all of our social relationships were organised by appeals to authority. The internet, on the other hand, brought about a change which led to us transitioning from institutions to platforms. To summarise, we use money to communicate value to one another, to express how much a product, a service, or a gesture means to us. – it’s an ancient technology. Decentralised Finance (DeFi) is a system that is completely international and borderless at the same time – and we've never had a money system like this before. It's a money system that moves at the speed of light, and is accessible to all. Firstly, a DeFi coin worth investing in is Ethereum (ETH). ETH officially launched in 2015 and managed to achieve a soaring 425% increase in value last year. Currently, it remains as the second biggest Cryptocurrency after Bitcoin (BTC). Ethereum can be used for more than just making payments – it's a marketplace of financial services, games and apps that won't steal your information or censor you. According to Coinpedia, ETH can potentially end 2022 between the value of $6,500 and $7,500 if the bullish trend that began in mid-2021 continues. Moving on, Ripple (XRP) is another noteworthy investment. XRP is a Crypto designed for business use that aims to provide a rapid and cost-effective way to move money across borders as tokens can be transferred without the use of a central middleman. Launched in 2012, Coinpedia now predicts that XRP will reach a value between $4 and $6 by 2025, which will illustrate a record level. In the past week, the price of XRP has increased by 8.69%. Furthermore, there's a good chance that market makers will continue to increase XRP’s price due to buy-stop liquidity above $0.85 and $0.91. The Game Changer Lastly, a coin that is highly recommended is Seesaw Protocol (SSW). SSW is a Fully Decentralised and Multi-Chain DeFi Platform that can be used for everyday transactions. The Seesaw Protocol (SSW) token can be swapped across several chains with a commission of less than 1%. Therefore, allowing all users to greatly benefit from this. In addition, users will be able to receive up to 5% pre-sale referral bonuses. Within the last month, the price of its value has increased by an incredible figure of 2000% and reached a spurt of 32% in the last 7 days alone. If you’re yet to invest, don’t worry as it’s not too late, because although we’re passing through pre-sale Phase 2, it’s still early to hop on board and invest in SSW – since it’s still in pre-sale! Investing early, even with a little initial commitment, can yield remarkable benefits. So now is an excellent time to purchase SSW tokens to receive the rewards the token could bring. Furthermore, experts estimate that by the end of the Pre-Sale in April this year, the price of Seesaw Protocol (SSW) will have risen from $0.11 to $0.40-0.45 – illustrating an outstanding expansion of 7000%! Thus far, it is logical for one to conclude that the value of SSW can only grow from here as it has already reached astonishing levels during pre-sale. Overall, the internet of money symbolises a technological innovation that many people fear because it involves such a fundamental change in money. However, it should be perceived with an optimistic approach as DeFi bridges the divide between those who are fortunate enough to have financial privileges and those who do not – there are no entry requirements to join the world of Crypto. Start creating your own financial success by investing in the rising star SSW, receive the bundle of benefits and watch the figures continue to boom. Enter Presale: https://presale.seesawprotocol.io/register Website: https://seesawprotocol.io/ Telegram: https://t.me/SEESAWPROTOCOL Twitter: https://twitter.com/SEESAWPROTOCOL Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/seesaw.protocol
XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.03.2022 10:21
Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:16
While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.
S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.03.2022 15:41
S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 08.03.2022 16:02
  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily
Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Bitcoin price action sees bulls storming out of the gate, with BTC bouncing off a $38,073 historical pivot. BTC price set to tick $39,780 intraday in a range-trading profile. Expect to see more upside, should BTC continue its rally from positive signals out of Ukraine, and punch through the 55-day SMA. Bitcoin price action is back on the front foot today as global markets surf positive news of a ceasefire and fresh round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The lift in positive sentiment spilled over into cryptocurrencies and saw positive prints across the board. Bitcoin was no different, with the price up 2.30% for the day at the time of writing and a possible tick of over 4% profit going into the U.S. session this evening. Bitcoin sees bulls taking over in ceasefire setback for bears Bitcoin price action is whipsawing between $45,000 to the upside and $34,000 to the downside, in a bandwidth that has been drawn since January. With global markets remaining stressed and on edge, today is set to give a sigh of relief and blow off some steam out of the pressure cooker that is Ukraine. Expect to see further decompression going into the U.S. session as this positive news gets picked up and translated into another round of bullish uplift for the cryptocurrency. BTC price is set to tick $39,780 and will try to break the high of last weekend. But bulls will immediately face another level of resistance, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $40,250, and the $40,000 level in the way. Add to that the monthly pivot at $41,000 – so within a $1,000 – and there are three bearish elements capable of cutting short any attempts for further upside if no additional relief catalysts are added to the current headlines. BTC/USD daily chart Over the weekend, a ceasefire was already tried but failed after just a few minutes. Should that be the case again, expect this to break the fragile trust that has been in place now since recent talks yesterday. Expect BTC price action to be pushed back to $38,073 a drop of around 4%.
Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 08.03.2022 17:37
  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.03.2022 08:47
USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.
EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

Jing Ren Jing Ren 10.03.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.
DAX (GER 40) Has Lost About 3% Over last 24 hours. Mercedes (MBG), Delivery Hero (DHER) And BMW Have Decreased.

DAX (GER 40) Has Lost About 3% Over last 24 hours. Mercedes (MBG), Delivery Hero (DHER) And BMW Have Decreased.

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 10.03.2022 14:39
Five-day DAX Price Chart shows it went up after a significant decline few days ago. However, today’s daily chart shows there’s a small downtrend and many companies have decreased since yesterday. Significantly affected - two major automotive industries and Delivery Hero. All of presented charts are courtesy of TradingView.com GER 40 has caught the ‘ground level’, but still trades Ca. 8% lower than before warfare in the Eastern Europe as chart shows: But what about last 24 hours what triggers us mostly? A decline amounts to ca. 3%. Many of stocks have decreased by these three – BMW, MBG And DHER have done it significantly. Mercedes-Benz AG has declined by almost 6% BMW has neared the -7% level. Delivery Hero (DHER) has plunged by almost 6.5%, have a look at the chart below: Source: TradingView.com, Investing.com, Capital.com
It’s Expected That EU Leaders Meet Tomorrow To Discuss The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It’s Expected That EU Leaders Meet Tomorrow To Discuss The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 10.03.2022 15:28
The Summit is not the only one to follow tomorrow… as British officials begin the weekend very early in the morning by publishing Manufacturing Production and GDP related indicators. German economists and investors are probably going to follow the release of their country’s CPI. Great Britain Great Britain’s GDP indicators (YoY and MoM) are presented tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. Previously, Month-to-Month indicator amounted to -0.2% and Year-to-Year one hit 6.5%. At the same time there are two other important indicators released. We’re talking about Manufacturing Production (MoM) (0.2%) and Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (1.0%). It will be a definitely productive beginning of the week. Germany At the very beginning of Friday there’s something to follow in Spain and Germany as well. These countries release their CPI tomorrow. European Union Three hours after events in Great Britain, there is one which takes place in Brussel, where EU Leaders meet at the Summit. It’ll be surely connected with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Canada At 1.30 p.m. Canadians receives information about Employment Change, which previously amounted to -200.1K Source: Investing.com Time: GMT
NZDUSD Trades Higher, XAGUSD Nears $25.50-26 Range, US 30 Chart Shows Fluctuations

NZDUSD Trades Higher, XAGUSD Nears $25.50-26 Range, US 30 Chart Shows Fluctuations

Jing Ren Jing Ren 11.03.2022 07:40
NZDUSD consolidates gains The New Zealand dollar inched higher supported by roaring commodity prices. A break above the daily resistance at 0.6890 has put the kiwi back on track in the medium term. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an acceleration to the upside. As sentiment improves, the bulls may see the current consolidation as an opportunity to accumulate. A close above 0.6920 would extend the rally to 0.7050. 0.6800 is the first support and 0.6730 over the 30-day moving average a key demand zone. XAGUSD seeks support Silver consolidates amid ongoing geopolitical instability. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally. A tentative break below 25.40 has prompted some buyers to take profit. While sentiment remains optimistic, a correction might be necessary for the bulls to take a breather. The psychological level of 25.00 is a major demand zone. Its breach could send the precious metal to 24.30 which sits on the 30-day moving average. A rally above 26.90 could propel the price to last May’s highs around 28.50. US 30 struggles for buyers The Dow Jones 30 turned south after talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled again. A rebound above 34000 has provided some relief. Nonetheless, enthusiasm could be short-lived after the index gave up all recent gains. The prospect of a bear market looms if this turns out to be a dead cat bounce. A fall below 32300 could trigger another round of liquidation and push the Dow to a 12-month low at 30800. On the upside, 33500 is the first resistance. The bulls will need to lift offers around 34100 before they could attract more followers.
The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 17:21
  With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days.   Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? - 10.03.2022

S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? - 10.03.2022

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 15:40
  Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend? The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,300, and the next resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, among others. On the other hand, the support level remains at 4,150-4,200. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – More Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the short-term consolidation. On Tuesday it fell to around 4,150, before bouncing back to the 4,200-4,250 level. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index bounced yesterday, but this morning it is expected to open lower. We will likely see some more news-driven volatility. For now, it looks like an upward correction but it may also be a more meaningful upward reversal. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index retraced some of the recent decline, but we may see more volatility. We are maintaining our long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 08:37
Bitcoin fell 5.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.6K, and further to $38.9K on Friday morning, down 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the same time (-0.3%), while other leading altcoins from the first are changing in different directions, from a 1.6% increase (XRP) to a 1% decrease (BNB). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.2% over the day to $1.74 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index continues to decline, falling from 42.7% yesterday to 42.4% due to the greater stability of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 6 points in a day to 22, again entering the territory of "extreme fear". Bitcoin fully returned the growth of Wednesday, which was caused by the adoption in the United States of the first document on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. The decline in stock indices and the growth of the dollar also did not favour the purchases of the first cryptocurrency, which often moves in unison with the general demand for risks. The first decree on cryptocurrencies signed the day before can become the basis for future US legislation on regulating relations in the crypto sphere. Against this background, the shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies have noticeably risen in price. One of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is going to expand its offering for trading digital assets. The bank is exploring the possibility of launching bilateral crypto-currency options. World-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki has warned that the world economy is now on the verge of hyperinflation and advised to "stay away" from the stock market. Against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the financial system of the Russian Federation and restrictions imposed on the circulation of the dollar and the euro, the demand of the population for cryptocurrency has increased sharply. Now it is primarily used for the transfer of capital abroad or for parking in "hard" currency. Analysts believe that regulators are unlikely to be able to effectively prevent such transactions. But the state is helped by crypto-exchanges, which block the Russians on their own initiative. There remain the possibilities of p2p platforms, that is, transfers between individuals. However, there are significant risks of fraud associated with such transactions.
UK100 (FTSE 100) 24H Chart: Top 3 Losers: Coca-Cola HBC (CCH), FRES (Fresnillo PLC) And Associated British Foods (BF)

UK100 (FTSE 100) 24H Chart: Top 3 Losers: Coca-Cola HBC (CCH), FRES (Fresnillo PLC) And Associated British Foods (BF)

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 11.03.2022 11:42
It would be good to end this week with some positive news like stock rally. In general UK100 perform quite well, but one popular brand has lost ca. 1.5% over last 24 hours. All charts are courtesy of TradingView.com Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) Chart Fresnillo (FRES) Has Plunged deeper – the loses amount to ca. 3% Associated British Food (ABF) chart also shows a decline. The price has declined by ca. 1.5% as CCH has done Source: TradingView.com
Blockchain Gaming - Where NFT, RPG And Layer 2 Meet

WAVESUSD Has Noticeably Increased Since The Beginning Of The Russia-Ukraine Warfare

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 11.03.2022 13:03
At this point, we have a flat end to a choppy week. Markets continue to deal with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine that’s been chopping up risk markets. The top 10 and 25 started the week with a solid move lower. Before buyers flooded back into coins on Tuesday. Feverish buying continued on Wednesday, and it came as a real surprise as markets were flat till lunchtime AU time. Gains reminded us of past times as many of the top ten jumped to 8% plus gains, and some coins hit 10-15% gains. The reason was unclear at the time, but news soon hit that Biden’s executive order was leaked. Traders have been nervously awaiting the details of this order as it was set to show how the US government was going to treat and regulate crypto assets. Cameron Winklevoss, president of crypto exchange Gemini Trust, wrote Wednesday that Biden’s executive order is a “watershed moment” for the industry. “It paves the way for thoughtful national crypto regulation that will allow builders to build onshore and ensure that the US remains a leader in crypto,” he wrote. “It is important for various agencies (federal and state!) and Congress to work closely together,” Winklevoss added. “The WH recognizes the importance of overarching public policy and national interest rising above narrow jurisdictional battles to best develop a coherent and cohesive framework.” The crypto world saw the bill as a win, and that was definitely reflected in prices in Wednesday’s session. This was short-lived as sellers came back with a vengeance on Thursday, and most of Wednesday’s solid gains were all or close to being erased. Buy the rumor, sell the fact, combined with failed proposed talks between Russia and Ukraine, could be some of the influences that sent prices lower. Traders made late recoveries on Friday as futures, and other risk assets gained traction during the London session. The top 10 and 25 turned positive last in the session. Waves was a real standout during the week, and it paid little attention to a lot of the external influences we saw during the week. Price started the week at 16.88 and hit a high of 30.88. A gain of 45%. 29.40 is presented as resistance on the weekly chart, but we will be watching to see if price can respond to a new pullback and retest resistance, suggesting the current rally has further to go. The post Your Crypto Focus: 12th-18th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Now, That‘s Better

Now, That‘s Better

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.03.2022 15:59
S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.03.2022 16:24
From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Jing Ren Jing Ren 14.03.2022 07:50
USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar surged after a sharp drop in February’s unemployment rate. A break above the recent peak at 1.2875 has consolidated the US dollar’s lead.The RSI’s repeatedly overbought condition has led to some profit-taking. As the indicator swung into the oversold area, a pullback attracted bargain hunters in the demand zone between 61.8% (1.2700) Fibonacci retracement level and 1.2680.A rally above 1.2840 may resume the rally and send the pair to December’s high at 1.2960.EURJPY attempts reversalThe euro continues upward after the ECB left the door open to an interest rate hike. A pop above 128.60 has prompted sellers to reconsider their bets.However, traders can expect strong bearish pressure in the supply zone around 129.20. This level overlays with the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area.An overbought RSI has tempered the initial comeback and the bulls need to consolidate their positions before they could push further. 126.50 is key support and 124.40 a second line of defense to keep the pair afloat.UK 100 bounces backThe FTSE 100 recoups losses as Britain’s GDP beat expectations in January. The rebound has gained traction after it broke above 7200.After a brief pause, the index met buying interest over 7050 and a bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Sentiment remains cautious from the daily chart perspective though and the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.7450 at the origin of the latest sell-off is a major hurdle as its breach could turn the mood around. Otherwise, there could be a revision of 6800 soon.
Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.03.2022 13:09
S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Tuesday's EUR/USD Analysis: Chaotic Movements on 30M Chart

DAX (GER 40) Has Increased By Ca. 3% Since Friday. Deutsche Bank (DBK), Porsche (PAH3) And Volkswagen (VOW3) Have Gained The Most

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 14.03.2022 15:53
It’s a quite good day for German most popular index. Charts - courtesy of TradingView.com There are three brands which should be definitely satisfied as shortly before markets closes… Deutsche Bank (DBK) has gone ca. 7.4% up: Porsche (PAH3) has added ca. 6%: Volkswagen has increased by ca. 5.2% Source: TradingView.com  
Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL likely to see more supply chain disruptions, $120 price target

Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL likely to see more supply chain disruptions, $120 price target

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.03.2022 15:57
AAPL stock closed lower on Friday as fears over Ukraine escalation hit.Apple is likely to see more supply chain disruptions due to Chinese lockdowns.Inflation will also cause significant headaches for Apple's top brass.Apple's stock (AAPL) closed lower on Friday as initial optimism on peace talks was quickly washed away by reports of an escalation of the Russian conflict in Ukraine. The market closed lower for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and most sectors were dragged lower. Apple was not immune to the selling pressure. Apple Stock NewsApple did stage a mid-week product release called Peak Performance. The company unveiled a lower-cost iPhone and some other products in the Mac and IPad space, but the show failed to generate much investor enthusiasm as geopolitical events remain dominant. The analyst community was reasonably impressed with the launch though with Loup stealing the show as they slapped a $250 price target on Apple."Apple remains our Top Pick in IT Hardware given durable fundamentals, predictable cash flows, additional 2022 product launches, and platform stability in an otherwise uncertain and volatile market backdrop," Morgan Stanley said as they put a $210 price target on the stock.However, we note the situation in China over the weekend where lockdowns are back in the cards as the country tries to contain the latest covid surge. According to Reuters, Foxconn has had to close its Shenzen factory, and that will be a hit to Apple's supply chain. The closure is expected to be brief, but the situation is fluid. Assuming this is the Omicron variant, then it is extremely transmissible compared to earlier versions where China was able to contain the circus using strict lockdowns. This is not a good look for Apple.Apple Stock ForecastApple stock is now likely to break the key support at $153.17 today as the market will take the lockdown news negatively. But more importantly, breaking this support at $153.17 means Apple will also break the 200-day moving average, which is set just above at $153.60. This adds yet more negative momentum to the picture. The move will likely slow as there is a lot of volume down here as we can see from the volume profile bars on the right of the chart. It does bring $138.31 as the next target though. The declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are confirming the bearish trend.Apple chart, daily
Increase Of Whales Wallets And California's Digital Financial Assets Law

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto markets in disarray

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.03.2022 15:57
Bitcoin price loses momentum as it slides back into consolidation along the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone. Ethereum price slides below a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a move below $2,000. Ripple price remains bullish as bulls eye a retest of $1 psychological level. Bitcoin price continues to tag the immediate demand area, weakening it. Despite the sudden bursts in buying pressure, BTC seems to be in consolidation mode. Ethereum price has triggered a bearish outlook while Ripple price shows signs of heading higher. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Lower lows hinting at a steeper decline Bitcoin price moves with no sense of direction Bitcoin price dips into the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone for the fourth time without producing any higher highs. This price action is indicative of a consolidation and is likely to breach lower. A daily candlestick close below $36,398 will invalidate the demand zone and knock BTC to retest the weekly support level at $34,752, which is the last line of defense. A breakdown of this barrier will open the path for bears to crash Bitcoin price to $30,000 or lower. Here, market makers will push BTC below $29,100 to collect liquidity resting below the equal lows formed in mid-2021. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look inauspicious for Bitcoin price, a strong bounce off the said demand zone that retests the weekly supply zone, ranging from $45,550 to $51,860, will provide some relief for bulls. Ethereum price favors bears Ethereum price action from January 22 to March 4 created three lower highs and higher lows, which, when connected via trend lines, resulted in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 26% move obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point. On March 6, ETH breached below, signaling a bearish breakout, which puts the theoretical target at $1,962. A breakdown of the weekly support level at $2,541 is vital; a breakdown of this barrier will expedite the move lower. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the recent onslaught of bearishness, Ethereum price needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $3,413 to invalidate the bullish thesis. Such a development will also open the possibility of kick-starting a potential uptrend. https://youtu.be/-U0QTf_NwnI Ripple price maintains its bullish momentum Ripple price traverses a bull flag continuation pattern, a breakout from which hints at a continuation of the uptrend. This technical formation contains an impulsive move higher followed by a consolidation in the form of a pennant. The 55% rally between February 3 and 8 formed a bullish flag pole continuation pattern, and the consolidation that ensued in the form of lower highs and higher lows created the pennant. Together, the bullish setup forecasts a 31% ascent for XRP price, obtained by adding the flag pole’s height to the breakout point from the pennant. On March 11, Ripple price broke out from the pennant, signaling the start of the 31% uptrend to $1. So far, the retest seems to be holding up well, so investors can expect the remittance token to continue its journey higher to the $1 psychological level. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close below the immediate demand zone, ranging from $0.689 to $0.705, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple price. In such a case, XRP has the twelve-hour demand zone, extending from $0.546 to $0.633 to support any residual selling pressure. https://youtu.be/rCFQmMHWJZ4
Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.03.2022 16:14
Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Binance Academy: "How to Add Fantom to MetaMask?"

FANTOM - TO RISE BY 65% TO 1.74

Peter Adepoju Peter Adepoju 14.03.2022 16:27
This is the continuation of my previous analysis on fantom here Price is approaching the lower trendline which is a potential support zone to push price ahead to the upper trendline. For investors, you can buy and pick a long position from $1.02 - $1.10 and take profit at $1.60 & $1.74. What do you think? Share your opinion in the comment section You can also demand for analysis of your preferred coin Happy Trading https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FTMUSDT/VAMApInG-FANTOM-TO-RISE-BY-65-TO-1-74/ Join my FREE Telegram Channel for daily updates and signals https://t.me/Petrock_Signals
The Swing Overview – Week 10 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 10 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 15:05
The Swing Overview – Week 10 The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than two weeks and there is no end in sight. However, the markets seem to have started to adapt to the new situation and the decline in the indices has stopped. Meanwhile, inflation in the Czech Republic rose to 11.1% and the ECB left rates unchanged as expected. There is extreme volatility in oil. After reaching 2008 price levels there has been a larger correction. The conflict in Ukraine   The high-profile meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba did not bring a solution to end the war.  Russia continues to expect Ukraine to recognise Crimea as part of Russia, to recognise the independence of republics declared by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and not to join NATO. Kuleba commented that Ukraine will not surrender. So, unfortunately, the war continues.   The sanctions, which have caused the Russian economy a shock and which are being extended, should help to end the war. The US announced that it stopped taking Russian oil. However, European leaders have not agreed to stop taking Russian energy because of their current dependence on it. As a lesson from this war, the EU is preparing a plan to stop taking Russian gas by 2027.   Meanwhile, the markets have calmed down a bit and although a resolution to the conflict is nowhere in sight, the markets seem to have come to accept the war as a regional issue that will have a negative but limited impact on global economic growth. This can be seen in US 10-year bond rates, which have started to rise again.   Figure 1: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart   The US inflation at highest levels in 40 years Annual inflation in the US for February was 7.9%, the highest since January 1982. The biggest contributor to inflation is energy, which saw inflation reaching 25.6%, while gasoline prices were up 38%. These figures do not include recent developments in Europe. Continued supply-side logistics problems and strong demand, together with a tight labour market mean that higher inflation will last for a longer period. Figure 2: The inflation in the US   Next week, the US Fed will meet to respond to rising inflation. Interest rates are generally expected to rise by at least 0.25%.    The SP500 index Long-term investors in the SP 500 index track an indicator of the number of companies whose stock prices are above the 50-day average. Figure 3: The SP 500 Index and an indicator of the number of companies in the SP 500 Index above the 50-day moving average   This indicator has recently fallen to a value of 20. In the past, as the figure shows, reaching a value of 20 was mostly followed by an increase in the index. It is therefore likely that investors will now start buying the shares. Amazon shares gained significantly after the company announced a 20:1 stock split. The stock can thus be afforded by more retail investors. As for the current trend in the SP 500 index, it has been moving down recently. This may be a correction to the overall uptrend shown in Figure 3. In Figure 4 we have a short-term view.     Figure 4: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   From a technical analysis perspective, the moving averages suggest that the index is moving down. Investor interest in buying a dip has slowed this decline, which can be seen on the H4 chart where a higher low has formed.  Support is at 4,140 - 4,152. Resistance is at 4,288 - 4,300. The next resistance is at 4,385 - 4,415. The moving averages also serve as resistance.   The inflation in the Czech Republic has surpassed 11% Annual inflation in the Czech Republic for February 2022 was 11.1% (9.9% in January), higher than market expectations (10.3% was expected). This is the highest inflation in the Czech Republic since 1998. The largest contributors to inflation are housing (16%), electricity (22.6%) and gas (28.3%). This figure is likely to force the CNB to raise rates further. The Czech koruna has stalled against the euro at resistance around 25.80 - 25.90. The reason for the weakening of the koruna was geopolitical uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine. Now it seems that the markets have absorbed this situation and this may be the reason for the appreciation of the koruna that occurred last week. If the war in Ukraine does not escalate further into new unexpected dimensions (such as the disruption of gas supplies to Europe from Russia), then the interest rate differential could again be an important factor, which, due to higher interest rates on the koruna, could lead to the koruna appreciation towards January levels.   Figure 5: EURCZK on the daily chart   Resistance: 25.80 - 25.90.  Support: 24.50 - 24.60 and then around 24.10   ECB and the euro The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0%. At the same time, it surprised the market by ending its bond buying program in Q3, earlier than previous forecasts. The reaction to the news was a strong appreciation of the euro and it jumped to 1.1120 against the dollar. Eventually, however, the euro ended the session at around 1.10. The reason for this reversal is that tightening at a time when the economy is slowing could lead to stagflation. Strong US inflation data also contributed to the euro sell-off. The US is also much less vulnerable to sanctions against Russia than Europe.   Figure 6: EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts   From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD has stalled right at the resistance band, which is at the 1.11-1.1130 level. The nearest support is 1.08-1.0850.   Crude Oil Brent crude oil reached $136 earlier this week, the highest level since July 2008. This was due to fears of a shortage of black liquid due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, Russia , which produces 7% of global demand, has announced that it will meet its contractual obligations. At the same time, Chevron said there was no shortage of oil and some other producers were ready to increase production if necessary. The EU has also announced that it will not impose an embargo on Russian oil imports, which would otherwise shock the market at a time when oil stocks are reaching multi-year lows, and will not join the US and the UK. Following this, oil began to retreat from its highs.   Figure 7: Brent crude oil on monthly and daily charts Resistance is in the 132-135 range. The nearest support is 103 - 105 USD per barrel. The next support is then in the band around USD 85 - 87 per barrel.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 16:01
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 730 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,270 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,000 contracts. The decrease in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.     The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish         Total Change 56038 29275 1991 27284     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 58,844 contracts last week, down by 6,095 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,198 contracts and an increase in short positions by 20,393 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which rose by 19,015 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward price action movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was  therefore a strong trend. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. The ECB's announcement last week to end the bond purchases in 3Q 2022 also contributed to the euro’s weakness. This hawkish statement at a time when economic growth is slowing sparked fears of stagflation in the market and therefore the euro weakened following the ECB announcement.   Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish         Total Change 64272 14316 19079 -4763     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 12,526 contracts, having fallen by 12,189 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,303 contracts and the growth in short positions by 15,492 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net speculators positions  are negative while there has been a further decline as well. Open interest, which rose by 34,443 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and it was therefore a strong price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish         Total Change 7074 4400 -678 5078     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached 78,195 contracts, up by 141 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 6,801 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,660 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar. Last week we saw an increase in open interest of 7,427 contracts. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by volume as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar weakened quite significantly last week. This may be explained by the fact that there has been a fall in prices in commodities that Australia exports (e.g. gold, coal). The decline in commodity prices also reflects efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine.  Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish         Total Change -66 -173 1433 -1606     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 12,379 contracts, having increased by 1,793 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,290 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,497 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar has weakened over the past week. Open interest rose significantly by 2,861 contracts last week. The downward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The weakening in the NZDUSD that occurred last week can be explained by the decline in the prices of commodities that New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6920 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Price Of ETH (ETHER) - What Is The Next Level That Matters?

Fierytrading Analysis Fierytrading Analysis 15.03.2022 10:49
// 🔥 Ethereum In A Downward Channel by FieryTrading on TradingView.com Since early December, ETH has been trading in a strong downtrend. During this period, a downward channel has appeared on the chart. Apart from the January capitulation, we've been following this channel quite well. Especially the upper resistance of the channel.With the macro environment not looking great at all, I think we're going to see more downside in the coming weeks. As it looks now, we're moving back to the capitulation lows around $2150. In case of a total stock market capitulation, we could even go back to $1750, which is the summer-21 lows.Happy trading! Source: TradingView Idea by FieryTrading
So... Will The Bank Of England (BoE) Raise The Interest Rate?

So... Will The Bank Of England (BoE) Raise The Interest Rate?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 09:07
The UK economy continues to show strength in the January-February economic reports. A fresh batch of data noted a fall in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits of 48.1k last month. The January statistics have improved and now show a fall in those receiving benefits from -31.9k to -67.3k. Wage growth continues to gain momentum to 4.8% against 4.6%. This data reinforces the view of the UK finance minister. Rishi Sunak expressed confidence that the labour market is in good shape and that the economy will cope with the challenges ahead. The confidence of UK officials should also be taken as a signal that the Bank of England might decide to accelerate its tightening. Market participants, on average, expect the third hike of 25 points on the coming Thursday. However, in light of the strong labour market and wage growth figures, combined with actual and expected price rises, the Bank of England could decide on a move of 50 points at once. The central bank had previously warned that it might take such a step. If the Bank of England hikes the rate from 0.5% to 1.0%, it could support the Pound markedly. Its appreciation would further reduce inflationary pressures from import prices and stabilise the economy as quickly as possible.
(XAUUSD) Price Of Gold And Price Of Silver (XAGUSD) Decreases...

(XAUUSD) Price Of Gold And Price Of Silver (XAGUSD) Decreases...

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 15.03.2022 14:12
  In line with predictions, gold is ceasing to benefit from war-fueled uncertainty. Meanwhile, silver faked another breakout. Could it be more bearish?  Last week’s powerful, huge-volume reversal in gold was likely to be followed by declines. It was – but that’s just the beginning. Yesterday’s $24 decline might seem significant on a day-to-day basis, but compared to last week’s enormous reversal, it’s really tiny. The modest extent of yesterday’s decline is by no means bullish – my emphasis on the small size of the decline so far should be viewed as an indication that much more is likely on the horizon. Besides, gold was down by about $20 in today’s pre-market trading. As I wrote yesterday, gold’s breakout above $2,000 was officially invalidated, and given the weekly reversal, it seems that the war-uncertainty-based rally is over. The decisive move below 70 in the RSI indicator after it was trading above 70 clearly confirms that the top is already behind us. Just like it was in 2020 and 2021 when similar things happened, history appears to have rhymed. On Friday, I wrote the following: Gold’s move of $0.40 (yes, forty cents) above $2,000 is not important as the breakout above this level was just invalidated the previous day. Technically, this is another attempt to break above this level, which is likely to be invalidated based on what we see in today’s pre-market trading. The fact that I would like to emphasize today is that this kind of small rebound after the initial slide is common and perfectly normal for gold. We saw exactly the same thing right after gold’s 2020 top and after its 2021 top, and also two more times in 2021 (as marked on the above chart). This means that yesterday’s upswing is not particularly bullish. It’s a normal post-top reaction. Lower gold values are to be expected. Silver declined yesterday, and it closed the day below its late-2021 high. In other words, the breakout above this level was invalidated. This is a strong bearish confirmation from the white metal. The white metal just invalidated the move above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. That’s bearish on its own, but let’s keep in mind that it happened right after silver outperformed gold. Last Tuesday, the GDXJ ETF was up by less than 1%, gold was up by 2.37%, and silver was up by 4.57%. Silver’s outperformance and miners’ underperformance is what we tend to see right at the tops. That’s exactly what it was – a top. Silver declined profoundly, and the attempt to break above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level will soon be just a distant (in terms of price) memory. On a medium-term basis, silver was simply weak relative to gold, but we saw short-term outperformance. In short, that was and continues to be bearish. As far as silver’s big picture is concerned, please note that it also provides us with a confirmation of the analogy between 2012 and now. At the turn of the year in 2011/2012, there was a cyclical turning point in silver, and we saw a sizable decline in silver shortly thereafter. The same happened in 2021, after silver’s cyclical turning point. Back in 2012, silver declined more or less to its previous lows and then rallied back up, but it didn’t reach its previous top. It more or less rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping. Recently, we saw exactly the same thing. After the initial decline, silver bottomed close to its previous lows, and most recently it rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping – below the previous high. Thus, the situation is just like what it was during the 2012 top in all three key components of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks. We have a situation in the general stock market that points to an even quicker slide than what we saw in 2012-2013. If stocks slide sharply and significantly just like in 2008, then the same fate may await the precious metals sector – just like in 2008. In this case, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) would be likely to fall in a spectacular manner. All the above was confirmed by silver’s invalidation of its breakout above the late-2021 high. Not only has the medium-term outlook been bearish, but now the short-term outlook for silver is bearish too. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 15.03.2022 14:13
  It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again?  The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West.   Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

Bitcoin Price Charts: BTC/XAUUSD And BTCUSDT - 15/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.03.2022 14:39
Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Kishu Inu, A Meme Coin, Promotes Growth And Development Through Its Transparency

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price - How Will Be The Altcoin Affected?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.03.2022 16:27
Shiba Inu price action sees price pressure against the technical triangle base at $0.00002140. SHIB price action set to test the low of its existence. As global markets threaten to drop into a recession, investors will flee cryptocurrencies in the coming days. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is on the cusp of breaking out of a bearish triangle that has dictated price action over the past two months. With a break to the downside, room opens up for an almost 70% drop towards the lowest levels in its existence as investors flee cryptocurrencies overall, following more and more reports that global markets are going into recession. With this dire projection in mind, expect to see further bleeding of SHIB price action as it falls back to $0.00000655. Shiba Inu price action bleeds as investors flee from recession fears Shiba Inu price action is seeing a massive squeeze building from bears trying to break out of the bearish triangle as more and more headwinds combine each day. The situation in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China are spelling supply chain issues again, and banks are starting to use the word recession more often in their reports about the future. This weighs on investor sentiment as cryptocurrencies are put on the backfoot and witness a daily outflow of cash from investors pulling the plug on their positions. SHIB price looks to break below $0.00002140 any moment now, with considerable momentum behind it from the death cross with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA. Next to that, the Relative Strength Index is nowhere near being oversold, opening the door for short sellers to pick up some more gains in the downtrend. Expect to see a sharp drop in the coming days towards $0.00001000, breaking the monthly S1 and S2 support levels along the way, only to find a floor near $0.00000607, which is near the lowest level in SHIB’s. SHIB/USD daily chart Although red flags are popping up all over financial markets, investors could still be working on a turnaround in an attempt to look beyond the current crisis at hand. If central banks can steer economies out of this dire situation, expect investors to start buying into cryptocurrencies to take advantage of lucrative discounts. This could spill into a turnaround and see price action first pop back above $0.00002500, breaking the bearish 55-day SMA and hitting $0.00002787, above the 28.6% Fibonacci level.
USDCHF Nears 0.940 Levels, EURGBP Keeps Its "Stability", USOIL Is Like A Benchmark For Geopolitical Situation

USDCHF Nears 0.940 Levels, EURGBP Keeps Its "Stability", USOIL Is Like A Benchmark For Geopolitical Situation

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.03.2022 08:11
USDCHF breaks major resistance The US dollar continues upward as the Fed is set to increase its interest rates by 25bp. The rally sped up after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9360. The bullish breakout may have ended a 9-month long consolidation from the daily chart perspective. The rising trendline confirms the optimism and acts as an immediate support. Solid momentum could propel the greenback to April 2021’s high at 0.9470. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to jump in. 0.9330 is the closest support should this happen. EURGBP tests key resistance The sterling found support after a drop in Britain’s unemployment rate in January. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8400 has prompted sellers to cover, easing the downward pressure. Sentiment remains downbeat unless buyers push the single currency past 0.8475. In turn, this could pave the way for a reversal in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the bears might double down and drive the euro back into its downtrend. A fall below 0.8360 would force early bulls to liquidate and trigger a sell-off to 0.8280. USOIL drops towards key support WTI crude falls back over a new round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, a bearish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum as the price went parabolic. Then a steep fall below 107.00 was a sign of liquidation. Buyers continue to unwind their positions as the price slides back to its pre-war level. The psychological level of 90.00 is an important support on the daily chart. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest in this demand zone. 105.00 is the first resistance before buyers could regain control.
KOG Report – FOMC, what can we expect on Gold?

KOG Report – FOMC, what can we expect on Gold?

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 16.03.2022 20:02
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/E41DqfO0-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ FOMC – 16/03/22 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to use the 1H chart for todays FOMC Report and will say that we’ll stick with this for the remainder of the sessions, unless anything changes. As usual we’ll give our daily updates and levels with our latest thoughts and ideas. We can see the market reacting to any news coming out of Russia/Ukraine which is causing traders difficulty in trying to swing trade this to the upside. We expecting this to give a push up at some point, whether that’s today or not remains to be seen. The key levels here are 1889 and 1870 below with the higher levels being 1937-40 and above that the 1950-60 level which would fill the imbalance. So as usual we’ll look at this with 2 scenarios in mind with our bias being to the upside at the moment! Scenario 1: They push the price down, we’ll wait for the levels of 1880 and breaking that 1860-65 before testing the long trade back up to target the 1920-30 price point initially. We feel it will go higher if it comes back up so we’ll look to protect any trades we get good entries on and take partials along the way. We have a KOG target at 1885 which we’re not far from so there’s a chance we may hit that. Scenario 2: They push the price up, we will only be looking for extreme key levels in this scenario to short the market. There is a chance they will want to test at least that 1950-60 level so we’ll wait there to short the market back down. It’s facing difficult and extreme market conditions which are being driven by fear. We’ve maintained we will take it easy and trade this level to level which has worked very well for us this month. What we don’t want to do is get stuck in trades if this decides to move and give any profits back to the market. For that reason we would say please trade this safely, reduce your lots sizes and give yourself time to think about your entry and exit. Always have a risk strategy in place and if you’re not comfortable with it please stay out. Cash is also a position, the markets won’t be like this forever. There is of course the case that this is likely priced in and we don’t see much movement so please also keep that in mind. It all depends on the question and answer session which will be after the release. As always, trade safe. KOG
Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 16.03.2022 16:43
  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.03.2022 08:15
XAUUSD stabilizes Gold struggles as the Fed maps out aggressive tightening. The precious metal has given up all its gains from the previous parabolic rise, which suggests a lack of commitment to support the rally. The price is testing the origin of the bullish breakout at 1907 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI attracted some buying interest. 1961 is the hurdle ahead before a rebound could materialize. Further down, 1880 is key support on the daily chart and its breach could reverse the course in the weeks to come. NZDUSD attempts rebound The New Zealand dollar found support from a rebound in commodity prices. The pair saw solid bids in the demand zone around 0.6725 and right over the 30-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the pullback, which would have caught buyers’ attention in this congestion area. A close above 0.6800 has prompted short-term sellers to cover and leave the door open for a rebound. 0.6870 is the last major resistance and a bullish breakout could propel the kiwi past the recent peak at 0.6920. CADJPY breaks key resistance The Canadian dollar shot higher after February’s CPI beat expectations. A break above last October’s high at 93.00 could be an ongoing signal to end a 5-month long consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may temporarily hold the bulls back. As sentiment turns overwhelmingly upbeat, buyers may be eager to jump in at a discounted price. The supply-turned-demand zone near 91.60 is an important level to safeguard the breakout. The psychological level of 94.00 could see resistance.
The Commodities Feed: Anticipating LNG Strike Action and Market Dynamics

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 08:29
AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.
Walter Herz is expanding Tenant Representation department

Walter Herz is expanding Tenant Representation department

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.03.2022 12:26
2021 was a period of intense work, development of a new organizational structure and expanding the team for Walter Herz. The company is operating in the commercial real estate sector, providing comprehensive consulting services across Poland. Consistent expansion of services and the need to provide clients with integrated service and comprehensive support, resulted in a new role emerging in the company. Mateusz Strzelecki, a long-term market expert who has been associated with Walter Herz for 9 years, was appointed Head of Tenant Representation. The promotion opened up even greater opportunities for him to further develop the spectrum of consulting services provided by the company to its clients and to vastly expand its operations in the area of office tenant representation on the largest business markets in the country. - The office market is still the primary focus of ​​Walter Herz's operations. However, the sector has become more demanding due to the intense process of changes and the emerging new directions of its development. Contrary to some predictions, stationary offices have kept their position. A lot is happening in the office market and clients need comprehensive support. Companies still invest heavily in workspace, some even more than before. In order to ensure the highest standard of consulting and full process security in the context of the constant evolution of the market, we must constantly develop. This is what makes our job very interesting, and customer satisfaction is a great motivation for us. Tenant's rights are a field I specialize in. I am pleased to share my knowledge with our business partners and clients, as well as with the participants of Tenant Academy, where I am a lecturer - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Head of Tenant Representation/Partner at Walter Herz. - We have been providing consulting for clients investing in the commercial real estate sector in Poland for a decade. This past year, despite the difficult situation on the market, brought progress for the company, both in terms of the scale of operations and employment growth. We focused on the development of the Office Tenant Representation department. Mateusz Strzelecki, who has been promoted to the position of Head of Tenant Representation, has been responsible for managing the team of advisers and for providing comprehensive support to clients – says BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO at Walter Herz. An important event for the company was the recent opening of a branch in Lodz. Apart from Warsaw and Cracow, Lodz is the third stationary Walter Herz branch in the country. Therefore, Magdalena Góra has joined the Lodz branch as a Senior Business Development Specialist. - Magda will support our Tenant Representation team in acquiring customers. He has been working in the commercial real estate market for many years. So far, she has advised office tenants, working in the furnishing industry. At Walter Herz, she will have the opportunity to see the market from a different angle. We believe that the combination of our diverse experiences and competences will allow us to raise the standard and comprehensiveness of our consulting, thanks to a broader view of the entire process - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Head of Tenant Representation / Partner at Walter Herz. - We are expanding the scope of strategic consulting services, flexibly changing the employment structure. The expansion of the team allowed us to improve our qualifications in all areas of the commercial real estate market. Last year, employment in the company increased by 30 per cent. We are constantly investing in the development of our organization, including through regular, personalized training that allows to improve the expertise and skills of the employees. We care for the development of our staff and professional fulfillment of all people in the team. Among them, we have numerous long-term employees who take up new functions and are successively being promoted. The company is still actively looking for specialists with experience in consulting concerning all sectors of the real estate market for project teams, in order to be able to effectively develop partner relations with clients and provide them with the necessary knowledge - says Magdalena Zagrodnik, Head of HR & Business Partner at Walter Herz. In everyday work with clients, the company’s motto is - We care & We share. This goal is also a guideline for the further implementation of Walter Herz’s Tenant Academy - a proprietary training project designed to educate tenants of commercial space across the country. Last year, during the fifth edition of the event, we organized five specialized webinars and one hybrid panel. Almost 1000 participants signed up for it. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For ten years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners across the country. Walter Herz experts assist investors, property owners and tenants. They provide full service, to companies from the private as well as public sectors. Walter Herz advisors support clients in finding and leasing space, and provide consulting in the implementation of investment projects in the warehouse, office, retail and hotel sectors. The company is based in Warsaw and runs regional branches in Cracow and Łódź. Walter Herz has created the Tenant Academy, the first project in Poland, which supports and educates commercial tenants from all over Poland by organizing specialized training meetings. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
FX Daily Update: Treasury Slide Sparks Market Nervousness

(DPZ) Domino's Pizza Stock Price - Fluctuations

Richard Nasr Richard Nasr 17.03.2022 12:13
WEEKLY: Right Chart DPZ is overall bullish trading inside the blue rising broadening wedge , and now approaching the lower blue trendline so we will be looking for trend-following buy setups on lower timeframes. DAILY: Left Chart DPZ is forming a channel in red but the upper trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. Trigger => Waiting for that swing high to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, DPZ would be overall bearish can still trade lower. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
The Real Damage This Year Has Been In Real Estate. The European Real Estate Sector Is Down

The office market is getting back on track

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.03.2022 12:26
There are still fewer leased and built offices than two years ago, but there is an upward trend in the office sector. Last year, some regional markets saw a sizable increase in demand, even compared to 2019 In 2021, 325 thousand sq m of office space was delivered on the Warsaw market. Such a high result was last seen in 2016. Several spectacular buildings, the implementation of which began before the pandemic, have been commissioned. Skyliner, Warsaw Unit, Generation Park Y and Fabryka Norblina have been completed in the vicinity of DaszyÅ„skiego roundabout. The construction of X20 building and Moje Miejsce II in the district of Mokotów have been completed. Warsaw office resources, which already exceed 6.15 million sq m. have also gained two office buildings in Centrum Praskie Koneser complex, as well as the EQ2 building and Baletowa Business Park. Warsaw with a negligible amount of new projects On the other hand, there is over a half less offices under construction in Warsaw than in recent years, when about 700-800 thousand sq m. of space was commissioned annually. According to Walter Herz, almost 330 thousand sq m. of offices is currently under construction. The last time there has been so little of them built in the city was a decade ago. Most of the projects will be completed this and next year. The office buildings under construction include, among others, Varso Tower, SkySawa, The Bridge, P180 and Bohema. The high level of new supply in 2021 and lower demand caused the vacancy rate to increase in the Warsaw market by 2.8 pp. to 12.7 per cent and become the highest in six years. - The activity of tenants in the office market is still lower than before the pandemic, but its gradual increase is noticeable. The total volume of lease in the office sector in Poland in 2021 was several percent higher than in the previous year. In Warsaw, the volume of lease transactions increased by over 7% year on year. Over 646 thousand sq m. of space has been leased. This result is significantly lower than in 2015-2019, when tenants leased an average of about 830 thousand sq m. of offices - says BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO of Walter Herz. - However, offices still remain an important element of companies' business activities and interesting assets for investors. So far, rental rates are at the same level as before, but a significant increase in construction costs is putting pressure to increase them – adds BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik. The Tri-City with the largest number of new offices In the regions, the highest increase in resources was recorded in the Tri-City. The offer of the Tri-City office market, which is the fourth in the country, will soon reach 1 million sq m. of space, due to the completion of construction of 73 thousand sq m. of offices in 3T Office Park, Palio, LPP Fashion Lab and Gato projects. Cracow, the second largest office market in Poland, increased its offer last year to over 1.6 million sq m. of space. The supply increased by over 60 thousand sq m. of space, due to the completion of Equal Business Park D, Ocean Office Park A, Tertium Business Park B and Aleja Pokoju 81. Over 37 thousand sq m. of offices has been delivered to the office market in Poznan in Nowy Rynek D building. As a result, the resources exceeded 620 thousand sq m. of space. In Wroclaw, Krakowska 35 and Nowa Strzegomska projects were commissioned, offering a total of 22 thousand sq m. of space. As a result, the offer increased to 1.25 million sq m. In Katowice (600 thousand sq m.), over 13 thousand sq m. of space entered the market last year, and in Lodz (583 thousand sq m.) - 3.6 thousand sq m. Katowice market with the largest development Katowice clearly stands out in the regions with the number of offices under construction. There are as many as 200 thousand sq m. of space under construction on the Katowice market, which accounts for nearly a third of the city's current resources. Most of the projects are to be completed this year. The Cracow market is also growing, with 165 thousand sq m. of office space under construction. - If the macroeconomic conditions and the economic situation are favorable, this value may increase in the upcoming quarters with projects that are being prepared for implementation in Cracow - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Head of Tenant Representation/Partner at Walter Herz. - Another office market that is also expanding is Wroclaw with 150 thousand sq m. of space under construction, among others in the Brama OÅ‚awska project, Quorum Office Park and another building in the Centrum PoÅ‚udnie and Tri-City complex with 120 thousand sq m. of offices that are implemented mainly in Gdansk - informs Mateusz Strzelecki. Nearly 80 thousand sq m. of office space is under construction in Poznan and almost 90 thousand sq m. of offices in Lodz. The largest investment on the Poznan market is Andersia Silver, which upon completion will deliver the tallest building in the city. In the near future, Lodz will offer modern space in Manufaktura Widzewska, Fuzja and React projects. Demand in the regions is at a fair level According to Walter Herz, the lease level in regional markets was over a dozen per cent lower last year than in 2019. - While the office sector has seen a significant recovery in the second half of 2021, the annual transaction value is still below the pre-pandemic average. However, the high demand for offices registered last year in Wroclaw, the Tri-City and Poznan, where more space was contracted than in 2019 is noteworthy - says Mateusz Strzelecki. Last year, we could observe the greatest demand for offices in Cracow, where approximately 156 thousand sq m. of space was leased and in Wroclaw, which showed absorption at the level of 153 thousand sq m. While the demand on the Cracow market was slightly lower than in the previous years, in Wroclaw the result was several per cent higher, both in comparison to 2020 and 2019. The Tri-City and Poznan markets also showed an increase in demand last year. The rental volume in the Tri-City amounted to 108 thousand sq m. of office space and was 23 per cent higher than the year before, and nearly 7 per cent higher than in 2019. Poznan, on the other hand, where lease agreements for 73 thousand sq m of offices were signed, recorded over 80 per cent increase in demand for offices, compared to 2019. The demand on the Katowice market dropped to 53 thousand sq m. of space, that’s 16 per cent lower than a year earlier. In Lodz, 51 thousand sq m. of offices were contracted, which is also less than in previous years. Over the last year, the vacancy rate in regional markets increased slightly. Only in Poznan, due to the jump in demand, it slightly decreased. It is currently at the level of 10.5 per cent in Katowice to 16.7 per cent in Wroclaw. Experts point out that the model of arranging office space is changing. More rooms for meetings and videoconferences are now being designed. A larger number of desks also function as workstations, which, depending on the needs, can be used by various people in the hybrid system. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For ten years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners across the country. Walter Herz experts assist investors, property owners and tenants. They provide full service, to companies from the private as well as public sectors. Walter Herz advisors support clients in finding and leasing space, and provide consulting in the implementation of investment projects in the warehouse, office, retail and hotel sectors. The company is based in Warsaw and runs regional branches in Cracow and Łódź. Walter Herz has created the Tenant Academy, the first project in Poland, which supports and educates commercial tenants from all over Poland by organizing specialized training meetings. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Has Increased Significantly Yesterday

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 13:08
THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets. Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.” ETFs CAN BE USED SPECIFICALLY FOR SEASONS AND DIRECTION! According to Statista www.statista.com on January 11, 2022, the assets managed by ETFs globally amounted to approximately 7.74 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. With more than 8,000 ETFs to choose from, you can find just about any flavor you need or are looking for. A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle that consists of four sub-cycles or phases that are also known as Kondratieff Seasons. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff 1892-1938 (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodities and metals experienced long-term cycles. The following graph illustrates both the inflation cycle as well as the best investments for each season. The Kondratieff Seasons act as a general guide and each investment has their own specific bull or bear market cycle. ETFs CAN OFFER YOU PROTECTION AND AGILITY IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET!  The following ETFs are not a recommendation to buy or sell but simply an illustration to emphasize the utilization of selecting an ETF for capital protection or potential appreciation in either a rising ‘BULL’ or falling ‘BEAR’ market. YINN – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BULL 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022 the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF ‘YINN’ lost -90.78%. Target Index: The FTSE China 50 Index (TXINOUNU) consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as determined by the FTSE/Russell. Constituents in the Index are weighted based on total market value so that companies with larger total market values will generally have a greater weight in the Index. Index constituents are screened for liquidity, and weightings are capped to limit the concentration of any one stock in the Index. However, one cannot directly invest in an index. According to Direxion’s website www.direxion.com, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. YANG – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BEAR 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022, The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF gained +418.38%. The rates of return shown for the YINN and YANG ETFs are not precise in that they are an estimation as displayed on a chart utilizing the charts measurement tool to emphasize my talking point. Sign up for my free Trading Newsletter to navigate potential major market opportunities! ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE WAS RASIED A QUARTER POINT! In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was still the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points. However, investors are speculating that due to the Russia – Ukraine war, the FED may be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS with US and CHINA STOCKS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe-havens. UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE OUR VOLATILE MARKETS! GET READY, GET SET, GO -I invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.03.2022 15:57
S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.03.2022 07:58
GBPUSD attempts to rebound The British pound stalled after the BOE failed to secure a unanimous vote for higher rates. A bullish RSI divergence suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, and combined with the indicator’s oversold condition on the daily chart, may attract buying interest. A tentative break above 1.3190 led some sellers to take profit. The bulls will need to push above the 1.3250 next to the 20-day moving average to get a foothold. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound valid. USDJPY takes a breather The Japanese yen struggles as the BOJ pledges to stick with stimulus. Sentiment turned extremely bullish after the pair rallied above December 2016’s high at 118.60. The RSI went overbought on both hourly and daily charts, and the overextension could refrain buyers from chasing bids. Trend followers may be waiting to buy at pullbacks. 117.70 is the first level to gauge buying interest and 116.80 is the second line of support. A rebound above 119.00 would extend gains beyond the psychological level of 120.00. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 bounced higher after Russia averted a bond default. Price action has stabilized above last June’s lows around 4140 where a triple bottom indicates a strong interest in keeping the index afloat. A previous attempt above 4350 forced sellers to cover but hit resistance at 4420. A bullish close above this key level on the daily chart could trigger a runaway rally. 4590 would be the next target when sentiment turns around. Otherwise, a lack of conviction from the buy-side would send the index to test 4250.
Dogecoin Could Start The Next Impulsive Rally

Dogecoin price could tank as India’s central bank closes the doors to cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 16:34
The Indian Central Bank came out this morning with firm rejection against adopting cryptocurrencies in the country. Dogecoin price action undergoes firm rejection against a double technical barrier. DOGE set to tank by 8% as bears see opportunity fit to pair back gains from Wednesday yet again. Dogecoin (DOGE) price action saw bulls being hit by ice-cold water this morning as two headlines made the sky drop on their heads. These were the Kremlin coming out saying that talks are nowhere near as positive as markets are frontrunning, and the Indian Central Bank (RBI) giving a firm rejection to the adoption of cryptocurrencies. The RBI branded cryptocurrencies as a tool that will wreck the currency system, monetary authority and government's ability to control the economy. This is a significant blow and setback for cryptocurrencies that saw bulls coming up yesterday for a catch of fresh air but are now again submerged underwater with negative prints today. Dogecoin price gains short-lived Dogecoin price action is not currently in a sweet spot as in just 5 minutes, two separate comments unrelated to each other trashed bulls’ game plan to target $0.1357 next week. Instead, DOGE price action fell back to its opening price and took a step back as bulls reassessed the situation – due to some unforeseen tail risks that caused headwinds overpowering the tailwinds that emerged the day before. Expect to possibly see DOGE price action tumble again to the downside, in a similar scenario to last week. DOGE price action got a firm rejection from negative headlines at $0.1197 with the green ascending trend line and that intermediary top-line proving too big for bulls to take on. Instead, price action collapsed back to the entry-level and looked heavy and dangling, as if poised to drop at any moment to the downside. A possible downside target is set at $0.1137 and $0.1100 with the last one making a triple bottom – although there is also the risk of a break even further to the downside if more tail-risk materialises. DOGE/USD daily chart Once the US session takes over, it could well be that investors look beyond these very short-term headlines, considering them as partial hiccups before moving on. That would mean a pickup in buying interest which could lead to a punch through $0.1197 to the upside. This would open the door towards $0.1242 intraday and possibly again on track for $0.1357.
Despite Ultra-Hawkish Fed’s Meeting, Gold Jumps

Despite Ultra-Hawkish Fed’s Meeting, Gold Jumps

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.03.2022 17:29
  The FOMC finally raised interest rates and signaled six more hikes this year. Despite the very hawkish dot plot, gold went up in initial reaction. There has been no breakthrough in Ukraine. Russian invasion has largely stalled on almost all fronts, so the troops are focusing on attacking civilian infrastructure. However, according to some reports, there is a slow but gradual advance in the south. Hence, although Russia is not likely to conquer Kyiv, not saying anything about Western Ukraine, it may take some southern territory under control, connecting Crimea with Donbas. The negotiations are ongoing, but it will be a long time before any agreement is reached. Let’s move to yesterday’s FOMC meeting. As widely expected, the Fed raised the federal funds rate. Finally! Although one Committee member (James Bullard) opted for a bolder move, the US central bank lifted the target range for its key policy rate only by 25 basis points, from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50%. It was the first hike since the end of 2018. The move also marks the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle after two years of ultra-easy monetary policy implemented in a response to the pandemic-related recession. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate from 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. It was, of course, the most important part of the FOMC statement. However, the central bankers also announced the beginning of quantitative tightening, i.e., the reduction of the enormous Fed’s balance sheet, at the next monetary policy meeting in May. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting. It’s also worth mentioning that the Fed deleted all references to the pandemic from the statement. Instead, it added a paragraph related to the war in Ukraine, pointing out that its exact implications for the U.S. economy are not yet known, except for the general upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on GDP growth: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity. These changes in the statement were widely expected, so their impact on the gold market should be limited.   Dot Plot and Gold The statement was accompanied by the latest economic projections conducted by the FOMC members. So, how do they look at the economy right now? As the table below shows, the central bankers expect the same unemployment rate and much slower economic growth this year compared to last December. This is a bit strange, as slower GDP growth should be accompanied by higher unemployment, but it’s a positive change for the gold market. What’s more, the FOMC participants see inflation now as even more persistent because they expect 4.3% PCE inflation at the end of 2022 instead of 2.6%. Inflation is forecasted to decline in the following years, but only to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, instead of the 2.3% and 2.1% seen in December. Slower economic growth accompanied by more stubborn inflation makes the economy look more like stagflation, which should be positive for gold prices. Last but not least, a more aggressive tightening cycle is coming. Brace yourselves! According to the fresh dot plot, the FOMC members see seven hikes in interest rates this year as appropriate. That’s a huge hawkish turn compared to December, when they perceived only three interest rate hikes as desired. The central bankers expect another four hikes in 2024 instead of just the three painted in the previous dot plot. Hence, the whole forecasted path of the federal fund rate has become steeper as it’s expected to reach 1.9% this year and 2.8% next year, compared to the 0.9% and 1.6% seen earlier. Wow, that’s a huge change that is very bearish for gold prices! The Fed signaled the fastest tightening since 2004-2006, which indicates that it has become really worried about inflation. It’s also possible that the war in Ukraine helped the US central bank adopt a more hawkish stance, as if monetary tightening leads to recession, there is an easy scapegoat to blame.   Implications for Gold What does the recent FOMC meeting mean for the gold market? Well, the Fed hiked interest rates and announced quantitative tightening. These hawkish actions are theoretically negative for the yellow metal, but they were probably already priced in. The new dot plot is certainly more surprising. It shows higher inflation and slower economic growth this year, which should be bullish for gold. However, the newest economic projections also forecast a much steeper path of interest rates, which should, theoretically, prove to be negative for the price of gold. How did gold perform? Well, it has been sliding recently in anticipation of the FOMC meeting. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal plunged from $2,039 last week to $1,913 yesterday. However, the immediate reaction of gold to the FOMC meeting was positive. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal rebounded, jumping above $1,940. Of course, we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from the short-term moves, but gold’s resilience in the face of the ultra-hawkish FOMC statement is a bullish sign. Although it remains to be seen whether the upward move will prove to be sustainable, I wouldn’t be surprised if it will. This is what history actually suggests: when the Fed started its previous tightening cycle in December 2015, the price of gold bottomed out. Of course, history never repeats itself to the letter, but there is another important factor. The newest FOMC statement was very hawkish – probably too hawkish. I don’t believe that the Fed will hike interest rates to 1.9% this year. And you? It means that we have probably reached the peak of the Fed’s hawkishness and that it will rather soften its stance from then on. If I’m right, a lot of the downward pressure that constrained gold should be gone now. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

Bitcoin Price Prediction - $500k Level In A Few Years Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 09:00
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. Should we believe in that? No sharp movements According to the Santiment team, Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year in recent days. Therefore, one should not expect sharp movements in the market soon. In confirmation of this, Bitcoin is down only 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $40.7K. Ethereum has added 1.5% over the same time, other leading altcoins from the top ten are changing from -2.0% (Terra) to 5% (Avalanche). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.3% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index decreased by 0.4% to 42.4% due to the better dynamics of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 2 points to 25 in a day and again found itself in a state of "extreme fear". In searching of the bottom Despite the outstripping dynamics of altcoins, a sequence of lower and lower local highs continues to form in Bitcoin. In early February, the upside lost momentum as it moved above $45.5K. In the first days of March, the bears already dominated on the way to $45K, on the 8th already near $42.5K, and in the last two days they are trying to form a downward reversal at $41.5K. At the same time, the bulls manage to form a strong support near $38K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that in terms of technical analysis, BTCUSD remains close to its 50-day moving average, clearly indicating the absence of any trend now. However, a consolidation in a descending triangle is usually a respite before the next decline. We will see the implementation of this scenario if BTCUSD fixes under $38K. An alternative scenario and a new upside momentum should be expected if the bulls manage to push the price above the previous highs of $42.5K, or close the day/week above $42K. News to consider Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. The State Russian Duma urged to speed up the launch of the cryptoruble in order to better bypass Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks strengthen control over the operations of clients related to cryptocurrencies.
Gold Is Showing A Good Sign For Further Drop

Can Disinflation Support A Decline Of Price Of Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.03.2022 15:13
  Inflation continues to rise but may soon reach its peak. After that, its fate will be sealed: a gradual decline. Does the same await gold?If you like inviting people over, you’ve probably figured out that some guests just don’t want to leave, even when you’re showing subtle signs of fatigue. They don’t seem to care and keep telling you the same not-so-funny jokes. Even in the hall, they talk lively and tell stories for long minutes because they remembered something very important. Inflation is like that kind of guest – still sitting in your living room, even after you turned off the music and went to wash the dishes, yawning loudly. Indeed, high inflation simply does not want to leave. Actually, it’s gaining momentum. As the chart below shows, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 6.0% over the past 12 months, speeding up from 5.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 7.1% in December to 7.5% in January. It’s been the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. However, at the time, Paul Volcker raised interest rates to double digits and inflation was easing. Today, inflation continues to rise, but the Fed is only starting its tightening cycle. The Fed’s strategy to deal with inflation is presented in the meme below. What is important here is that the recent surge in inflation is broad-based, with virtually all index components showing increases over the past 12 months. The share of items with price rises of over 2% increased from less than 60% before the pandemic to just under 90% in January 2022. As the chart below shows, the index for shelter is constantly rising and – given the recent spike in “asking rents” – is likely to continue its upward move for some time, adding to the overall CPI. What’s more, the Producer Price Index is still red-hot, which suggests that more inflation is in the pipeline, as companies will likely pass on the increased costs to consumers. So, will inflation peak anytime soon or will it become embedded? There are voices that – given the huge monetary expansion conducted in response to the epidemic – high inflation will be with us for the next two or three years, especially when inflationary expectations have risen noticeably. I totally agree that high inflation won’t go away this year. Please just take a look at the chart below, which shows that the pandemic brought huge jumps in the ratio of broad money to GDP. This ratio has increased by 23%, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2021, while the CPI has risen only 7.7% in the same period. It suggests that the CPI has room for a further increase. What’s more, the pace of growth in money supply is still far above the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. To curb inflation, the Fed would have to more decisively turn off the tap with liquidity and hike the federal funds rate more aggressively. However, as shown in the chart above, money supply growth peaked in February 2021. Thus, after a certain lag, the inflation rate should also reach a certain height. It usually takes about a year or a year and a half for any excess money to show up as inflation, so the peak could arrive within a few months, especially since some of the supply disruptions should start to ease in the near future. What does this intrusive inflation imply for the precious metals market? Well, the elevated inflationary pressure should be supportive of gold prices. However, I’m afraid that when disinflation starts, the yellow metal could suffer. The decline in inflation rates implies weaker demand for gold as an inflation hedge and also higher real interest rates. The key question is, of course, what exactly will be the path of inflation. Will it normalize quickly or gradually, or even stay at a high plateau after reaching a peak? I don’t expect a sharp disinflation, so gold may not enter a 1980-like bear market. Another question of the hour is whether inflation will turn into stagflation. So far, the economy is growing, so there is no stagnation. However, growth is likely to slow down, and I wouldn’t be surprised by seeing some recessionary trends in 2023-2024. Inflation should still be elevated then, creating a perfect environment for the yellow metal. Hence, the inflationary genie is out of the bottle and it could be difficult to push it back, even if inflation peaks in the near future. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
What Is Going On Financial Markets Today? Russia Will Not Resume Deliveries Of Gas

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 18.03.2022 17:14
  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Kishu Inu, A Meme Coin, Promotes Growth And Development Through Its Transparency

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price Has Lost The Gains From The Recent Past

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.03.2022 16:02
Shiba Inu price action falls back to Monday’s opening levels, making it a week of hardly any gains or losses. SHIB price action looks a bit bearish as another broader support test is set to kick in later today. SHIB price is still set to tank to $0.00001500 as bearish momentum continues. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action retook a step back and pared almost all the gains from Wednesday’s rally. Investors are swinging back into bearish mode as tail risks emerge and are put at the top of the agenda going into the weekend. Conflicting rumours and contrary remarks from what is going on in Ukraine are keeping investors puzzled and refraining them from continuing to open risk-on bets. Shiba Inu price sees puzzled investors turning their back on crypto Shiba Inu price action is set to erase its gains from earlier this week. SHIB price rose after the news that peace talks were making good progress. Yet this all looked to be thrown in the bin overnight as several headlines came out about Russiabeing not at all optimistic, and the US even putting the threat of nuclear weapons back on the table, as it sees Russia possibly trying to squeeze out a peace agreement that meets all of its demands but none of Ukraine’s. Shiba Ina and other cryptocurrencies saw bulls repeating the same mistake as last week when they got squeezed out by the weekend. SHIB price action is again dropping back to the baseline of a longer term triangle with the green trend line as its base. Multiple tests up until now have been held, but with the meeting between Biden and Xi this evening, it looks clear that the US wants to get a clear answer from China as to whether it is with the US against Russia, or with Russia – offering no middle ground. The tail risk from this meeting going into the weekend could trigger a break at $0.00002111 and see a drop towards $0.00001708, the low of January, which could well overshoot towards $0.00001500. SHIB/USD daily chart Of course, a truce or ceasefire would help turn the current sentiment around. If that were to happen expect a big pop in price action, capped at a max 13% gain, to where the red descending trend line and side of the triangle intersect with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) . Yet at the moment this seems an impossible hurdle to break through seeing the weakness of bulls currently at hand.
The Week On Markets: Bitcoin Has Added 10%! Price Of Gold Decreased, But It Could Be Worse.

The Week On Markets: Bitcoin Has Added 10%! Price Of Gold Decreased, But It Could Be Worse.

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 18.03.2022 20:15
BTC/USD Bitcoin has added a lot over that week. A 10% gain has remained despite the fact Fed raised interest rate. Gold Gold plunged after the Fed decision, but didn’t crash ending the week with a not so big decline. S&P 500 SPX rally was caused, among others, by Chinese stocks which are said to be back in the game. UK 100 (FTSE 100) The British had its ups and downs this week, but all in all gained ca. 4% at the end of the day (week!)
Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.03.2022 10:13
Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 21st – 25th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 21st – 25th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.03.2022 21:19
As expected, The Fed came out last week and approved a quarter percentage point interest rate rise,  its first since December 2018 and possibly one of many more to come as the U.S. faces up to rampant inflation. With that big decision now priced into the markets, all eyes will be on whether stocks will be able to sustain last week’s fresh gains into a second week. There are still many headlines to be written and with the Ukrainian conflict entering its second month, there may be many more twists and turns. In today’s Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead, we look ahead at potential moves in equities, oil, gold, Bitcoin and also discuss why forex might now be an interesting play. Watch the video below to get this week’s latest insights. REGISTER FOR THIS WEEK’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE WITH BORIS AND KATHY Join us at 10 PM AEDT (11 AM GMT) this Wednesday as Boris and Kathy once again take you through another midweek live market update, discussing the key assets and price points to be looking at as the weekend approaches. It’s the perfect session to get valuable insight into what’s currently hot in the financial markets, as well as an opportunity for you to ask your own questions to the experts in a live Q&A. Registration is free. Click below to secure your seat. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks Tuesday USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks Wednesday EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks GBP CPI GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks Thursday USD Crude Oil Inventories CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Assessment, SNB Press Conference EUR German Manufacturing PMI GBP Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI EUR EU Leaders Summit USD Core Durable Goods Orders USD Initial Jobless Claims Friday GBP Retail Sales EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index EUR EU Leaders Summit The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 21st – 25th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Precious Metals: What Can We Expect From Gold In The Near Future?

20/03/22 KOG Report – The week ahead for Gold

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 20.03.2022 18:12
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/bgv5PchS-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ KOG Report: In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we wanted to see the price test the lower support region to give us a good entry for the long, which we got. What we didn’t get though was that aggressive push to the upside, instead FOMC moved the price towards the 1950 level giving traders over 300pips on the move. We managed to trade the longs and the shorts in Camelot with a total of 18 targets completed last week, which was a fantastic result for Excalibur. In all we played the defensive on the markets trading this the KOG level to level way making sure we were not over exposing ourselves. So what can we expect in the week ahead? Something is telling us there is a big move on the way and its going to catch a lot of traders out! What we will say is that we will be looking for extreme resistance levels on this to add to the short positions we’re holding from above. That’s not to say we won’t be going long; we will take long trades into immediate resistance levels. We can see am immediate resistance level at the 1930 level and above that around 1945. That 1945 level is important for as long as the price remains below that level its likely we will see some lower targets being achieved in Gold in the coming week. On the downside we have the key level here of 1890-80, that’s where we will be waiting this week to go long on the market. We’re not concerned and don’t want to get involved in the immediate range unless we’re taking quick scalping trades level to level using Excalibur to guide us. So, we will look for the following scenarios on Gold this week: Scenario 1: Price opens, pushes to the upside and finds resistance at the 1930-35 level, we feel this level would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the immediate support levels of 1910, 1903 and below that 1895-90. We will be waiting just below to take a long position to target the 1930, 1940 and above that 1960 level. IF we reach 1950 we will take a majority of our trade of the table and let the rest run with the stop to entry. This will be a great swing trade if it works out! Scenario 2: Price opens negative, we have an Excalibur target just below around the 1910 level, we would expect a potential test on that wick or just below it. We will wait for our support levels of 1902, 1885-80, this is where we will want to test the long trade into the levels we have mentioned above! Again, around the 1940-50 level we will take a majority of the trade of the table and leave the stop at entry with an open target above. What we will be looking for is resistance above where we will want to short the market again. Its been a difficult month for traders with a lot of news driving the markets, the candles look small but the pip capture is very tempting for traders who are trading large lots. The market knows this and will create the swings and choppy price action to make sure its not as easy as it looks. Try not to be roped into the orchestration. We’re still playing the defensive here, even if that means we continue to do so for another month. We would rather trade a natural market than trade in the volatility being created by the fundamentals and geopolitics. Hope this helps traders, as usual we will be updating the analysis, levels and charts as we progress throughout the week. We’ve been doing these reports and analysis a long time, please do give us a like on our ideas, it does motivate us to keep going. As always, trade safe. KOG
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

🔥 Ethereum (ETH) Price Successful Break Out: Re-test Before Bounce

Fierytrading Analysis Fierytrading Analysis 21.03.2022 10:27
  // 🔥 Ethereum Successful Break Out: Re-test Before Bounce by FieryTrading on TradingView.com A little while ago I made an analysis on ETH and the bearish channel it was trading in. In this analysis I talked about the $3000 being my short-term bullish target, and that a minor correction was to be expected after reaching this area. The $3000 area indeed ended up being an area of resistance, as ETH is currently seeing a rejection from that area.From what I'm seeing, there's a decent probability that ETH will re-test the bearish channel's resistance. It would be incredibly bullish if we can see a nice bullish bounce from that area.Naturally, the $3000 area functions as strong area of resistance, so that's our first target. In case we can continue this break out, I'm expecting ETH to move back to $3300 in the next week or so.Happy trading!
Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

Ether (ETH), AVAX, Solana (SOL) And Other Layer 1&2 Projects - Weekly Update

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 16.03.2022 15:27
ETH investment funds reach record-high inflows in 13 weeks. EU parliament votes against ban on Proof-of-Work consensus. Layer 2 solution developer StarkWareLtd raises $100M at $6B valuation. Key Takeaways Ethereum (ETH) investment funds recorded their largest inflows in 13 weeks against a discouraging investment backdrop. In addition, the Eth 2.0 deposit contract crossed the 10M ETH mark as the community continues to support the network’s transition. The European Parliament voted against a proposed ban on proof-of-work (PoW) mining under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) legislation, which would have blocked member states from mining PoW cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). Layer 2 solution developer StarkWare raised USD 100M at a $6B valuation. StarkWare provides two layer 2 solutions, StarkEx and StarkNet. Recently, the developer launched StarkNet at the end of February. Cronos (CRO) saw a +8.07% increase in total transactions to 21.55M, while its TVL grew to $2.73B (+14.51% week-on-week). The total number of wallet addresses now stands at 442,534, up +3.94% from last week. Highlights Ethereum ‘Merge’ edging closer with final Kiln testnet launch Ethereum gas fees drop to lowest levels since August 2021 Block’s wallet will have a fingerprint sensor, not a screen Now You can try ‘teleporting’ bitcoin for greater privacy with CoinSwaps How El Salvador is fixing Chivo Wallet, trying to get Bitcoin adoption back on track Polygon network back up with a ‘temporary fix’ after eight-hour stoppage Cosmos’ Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol (IBC) surpassed 11 million transfers in February Fantom Foundation issues clarification statement about departure of Andre Cronje and Anton Nell         Tags CRYPTO CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTO.COM WEEKLY REPORTS CRYPTOCURRENCIES LAYER 1 LAYER 2 MARKET Source: crypto.com
The (SPX) S&P 500 Price Way Up Likely To Make Many "WOW!"

The (SPX) S&P 500 Price Way Up Likely To Make Many "WOW!"

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 21.03.2022 14:19
  The S&P 500 extended its short-term uptrend on Friday after breaking above the early March local high. Will we see some profit-taking action soon? The broad stock market index gained 1.17% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.2%. Stocks extended their rally and since last Monday’s low of around 4,162, the index has already gained over 300 points. The market accelerated higher after the Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, however, investors were jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower. We may see a consolidation or some profit-taking action following the mentioned 300-point rebound from the last Monday’s low. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,415, marked by the previous local high. The S&P 500 index trades just below its early February consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Above the Previous High Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Friday it broke above the early March local highs of around 4,400. It’s the nearest important support level right now. We may see a correction following the recent run-up. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion Stocks extended their uptrend once again on Friday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the previous local high. It rallied over 300 points from its last Monday’s local low, so we may see a consolidation or some profit-taking action soon. This morning the broad stock market’s gauge is expected to open 0.1% lower. The war In Ukraine is still a negative factor for the markets. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index rallied over 300 points from the last Monday’s local low; we may see a correction at some point. We are maintaining our profitable long position. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Blackberry Stock Price & News: BB bounces as company says Jarvis to be rolled out

Blackberry Stock Price & News: BB bounces as company says Jarvis to be rolled out

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.03.2022 16:05
Blackberry stock is back trending on retail investment sites after a long break.BB stock was one of the old meme stock favorites from last year.The stock also catches a major investment bank upgrade on Monday.Blackberry shares are back. The BB ticker is once again trending all over social media and retail trading sites after quite a long hiatus in the wilderness. That's break to you and me but my editor likes the fancy words! But Blackberry (BB) is definitely back. It was one of the original stocks caught up in the frenzy of short squeeze speculation last year but dropped off most people's attention lists as the stock was unable to push on and gave up all of its gains. BB stock fell from $20.17 in June 2021 to $5.80 in February 2022. Also read: AMC stock starts Monday with more gainsBlackberry (BB) stock news: Announces 13 channel partners for Jarvis 2.0Blackberry was the go-to business phone in the early 2010 decade before being totally outmaneuvered by the emergence of the smartphone. Holding a Blackberry was a sign that you had made it in the business world but the company and phone went the way of Nokia, totally demolished by Apple and other smartphone makers. But both companies Blackberry and Nokia have struggled along with varying degrees of success. Blackberry caught some renewed attention on Monday as it announced its Jarvis 2.0 testing tool will be offered by 13 partners to companies in the Asia Pacific region. “Asia-Pacific is at a tipping point in how it protects infrastructure and industries against growing IoT security threats as digital automation continues to advance,” said Dhiraj Handa, vice president of BlackBerry QNX for the Asia-Pacific region. Jarvis is a testing tool that allows companies to look for potential branches of security in their systems. "BlackBerry® Jarvis® 2.0 is a software composition analysis and static application security testing solution that is designed to analyze binaries within complex embedded systems. It lets you identify security vulnerabilities in products that have software from multiple sources, without the need for source code. It’s a powerful tool that provides you insights into your binaries and helps you catch potential security issues with the click", from Blackberry. This is timely given the heightened security and hacker issues surrounding many systems and companies are spending increasing amounts of their IT budgets on security issues. Blackberry (BB) stock forecastThis certainly reads positively but it is early days in the process. BB stock price has recovered but remains in a powerful downtrend. The recent spike up to the 50-day moving average is encouraging but only a break of $9.47 would really get momentum back towards bulls. Breaking above $48.50 is the first target and would put BB back in a neutral stance. Above $9.47 BB stock is bullish. The first resistance is the 50-day moving average at $7.41. Blackberry (BB) chart, daily
S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.03.2022 15:37
S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Central Banks in the 21st Century: Independence, Credibility, and Interest Rate Challenges

UK100 (FTSE 100) Added Ca. 0.5%. Who Gained? AAF, AAL And BP In Focus. The Latter Linked With Rising Crude Oil Price

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 21.03.2022 19:11
The most popular British index begins the week in a delicate manner. The amplitude is not that high and we’re to wait a bit longer for more exciting fluctuations. Antofagasta, BP and Anglo American all companies linked with commodities and they all rise. These stock prices fluctuate mostly as the global situation seems to be unsure with the tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep going on. BP and Shell gains as crude oil price increase so expect next uptrends coming, as the 'black gold' keeps rising. UK 100 Chart [UPDATE: 17:30 GMT] BP – British Petroleum Gained Ca. 4%  AAF – Antofagasta Added Over 8% AAL – Anglo American PLC Increased By Over 7% Data/Source: Investing.com, TradingView.com
Hawkish Fed „Surprise“

Hawkish Fed „Surprise“

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out aggressive inflation before it‘s too late (anchored inflation expectations, anyone? I talked that in the run up to the Sep 2021 P&G price hikes and how the competition would be following in a nod to high input costs, with heating job market on top of the commodities pressure pinching back then already), sent stocks and bonds down.Add the recession fears that were assuaged during the Wednesday‘s conference, and you get the S&P 500 bulls having to dust off after Monday‘s setback. Given how early we‘re in the tightening cycle, and that the real economy isn‘t yet breaking down no matter what‘s in the pipeline geopolitically as regards various consequences to commodities, goods, services and money flows, the stock market bulls are still likely to take on the 4,600 as discussed already.Only this time, the upswing would be accompanied by a more measured and balanced commodities upswing, joined in by precious metals. Great profits ahead and already in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is consolidating above 4,400, and the relative strength in value as opposed to tech, is boding well – the bulls are pushing their luck a bit too hard as a further TLT decline would pressure growth stocks.Credit MarketsHYG is getting under pressure again, but its decline would be uneven in the short run – as in I‘m looking for quite some back and forth action. First, higher in taking on yesterday‘s selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t turning lower in earnest – the miners‘ leadership bodes well for further gains, and is actually a very good performance given the hawkish Fed „surprise“ (surprise that wasn‘t, shouldn‘t have been).Crude OilCrude oil strength returning is a very good omen for commodities bulls broadly, and the rising volume hints at return of bullish spirits. The upswing is far from over – look how far black gold got on relatively little conviction, and where oil stocks trade at the moment.CopperCopper is acting strongly, and the downswing didn‘t entice the bears much. The path of least resistance remains higher, and the red metal isn‘t yet outperforming the CRB Index. Great pick for portfolio gains with as little volatility as can be.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin went on to recover the weekend setback – Ethereum upswing presaged that. They‘re both a little stalling now, but entering today‘s regular session on a constructive note. I‘m looking for modest gains extension.SummaryS&P 500 is bound to recover from yesterday‘s intraday setback – the animal spirits and positive seasonality are there to overcome the brief realization that the Fed talks seriously about tightening and entrenched inflation. While not even the implied readiness to hike by 50bp here and there won‘t cut it and send inflation to the woodshed, let alone inflation expectations, the recession fears would be the next powerful ally of stock market bears. For now though, we‘re muddling through generally higher (I‘m still looking for a tradable consolidation of last week‘s sharp gains), and will do so over the coming several weeks. The real profits are to be had in commodities and precious metals, as I had been saying quite often lately… Enjoy!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
US Dollar (USD) Amid Fed's Rhetoric And Tomorrow’s Powell Speech. EUR/USD, GBP/USD And USD/JPY In Focus

US Dollar (USD) Amid Fed's Rhetoric And Tomorrow’s Powell Speech. EUR/USD, GBP/USD And USD/JPY In Focus

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 22.03.2022 18:48
The last raise of Fed’s interest rate seems to be tip of the iceberg as hawkish rhetoric is vivid in following Jerome Powell’s testimonies. Inflation is still here and according to Investing.com Goldman Sachs predicts that Fed’s next moves are 50bps raises in the two following months. As we’re waiting for tomorrows midday (GMT) which is the time Fed Chairman speaks, let’s review how have most traded, dollar-based pairs traded over last 24 hours. EUR/USD Morning declines appear to be only temporary, USD has weakened in the afternoon and slightly decreased as the pair gained 0.1% until now. GBP/USD The pair has gained ca. 0.6% and can be threated as a ‘trailer’ of the dollar strengthening later this week. USD/JPY After today’s news about Russian-Japanese end of negotiations considering official truce of World War II (!) and ongoing hawkish Fed’s rhetoric Japanese yen has weakened and the pair has gained ca. 1.1% USD/PLN Exotic pair shows an interesting performance once again after an increase of over 0.4% USDPLN has decreased by over 0.5% as the pair seems to be affected by many factors as the country lies close to Ukraine and had its interest rate increased two weeks ago. Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com
Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

WTI drops back below $110 amid profit-taking with EU split on Russia oil ban

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.03.2022 16:18
WTI has eased back from APac session highs in the $113.00s to under $110 amid fresh profit-taking. The EU is reportedly split over whether or not to press ahead with a Russian oil import ban. After rising as high as the $113.00s during Asia Pacific trade as oil market participants responded to chatter about a potential EU ban on Russian oil imports and weekend news of disruptions to Saudi energy infrastructure, front-month WTI futures have eased back somewhat. Prices are now back to trading beneath $110 per barrel, down about $3.50 versus Monday’s closing highs in the upper $112.00s. That still leaves prices higher by more than $15 versus last week's lows, though still some $20 lower versus earlier monthly highs. Reports that EU foreign ministers are split over whether to press ahead with the Russian oil embargo likely prompted some profit-taking, with Germany reportedly still of the view that the bloc remains too dependent on Russian energy to take such a step. “The proposed ban is still some way from becoming policy because a significant number of EU nations oppose the ban... Still, the fact that the ban is being discussed at all is a significant shift” said analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Looking ahead, geopolitical developments remain in the forefront, though traders will also be focused on the latest weekly Private API crude oil inventory data release at 2130 GMT. Oil traders continue to fret about uncertainty regarding the extent of loss of Russian supply at a time when global oil reserves are at multi-year lows.
Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

Shiba Inu (SHIB), Dogecoin (DOGE) And… PancakeSwap (CAKE) – Daily Crypto Price Report

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 22.03.2022 21:11
In the new series we focus on some interesting, meme and other… non-typical coins. Today we highlight fluctuations of popular SHIB, DOGE and tasty PancakeSwap. PancakeSwap (CAKE) Price has risen by 5% today what’s probably not so surprising as it seems to be very activating project with loads of announcements on Twitter. Dogecoin (DOGE) The project which is, let’s say, “supported” by Elon Musk keeps arousing interest. Price has risen by ca. 2% until now. The price has reached but declined suddenly… Shiba Inu (SHIB) Another iteration of Doge-inspired coin has declined recently as well, ranging between 2-3% gain at the time I’m writing. Source/Data: TradingView.com, coinmarketcap.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com
CZK: Koruna's Resilience Amid Global Influences - 16.08.2023

Price Of Gold, Silver And Crude Oil Price Ahead Of Powell Speech And Amid Ongoing Russia-Ukraine War

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 23.03.2022 00:28
All the markets’ old boys like crude, gold and silver are still vulnerable for the mix of the factors shaping the prices. Naturally, stocks seems to be more dynamic as the recent events show. China stocks have been fluctuating recently as, among others, COVID-19 and negotiations with the USA were topping the headlines. Global sanctions affect WTI/BRENT price – the supplies from Russia are about to be limited in Europe so the price is to rise again. Going back to gold - Hawkish rhetoric of Fed keeps precious metals investors uncertain. There’s no doubt safe-haven must be watched all the time to decide if it’s the best moment to sell or buy. Crude Oil – WTI Luckily crude oil price has decreased by 3% over last 24 hours and it’s probably ‘waiting’ for the next significant geopolitical updates. According to Reuters, some countries of the EU are still hesitating to stop importing crude oil from Russia. Gold – XAUUSD Yes, price of gold has decreased by almost 1%, but… it could be worse as Powell doesn’t hesitate to present hawkish comments. Silver – XAGUSD Silver price chart shows a significant decline which has helped it to decrease by 1.7% over last day. As wrote above, Powell testimony will let us visualise a more detailed outlook. Source/Data: Reuters, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

March 22nd, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.03.2022 19:44
Bitcoin´s time to go   Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth.  Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from.  The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting.  Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly.     Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Tepid BoJ Stance Despite Inflation Surge: Future Policy Outlook

Inflation Rises In Great Britain, GBP May Weaken, What Is Bank Of England Going To Do

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:37
After the traditional January reset, UK consumer prices continued their flight. Morning data showed that CPI rose by 0.8% last month and 6.2% year-over-year. This data is 0.2 percentage points above market expectations, indicating that prices rise faster than initially forecast. Last week the Bank of England indicated that inflation could peak near 8% but failed to vote unanimously to raise rates. In contrast, it would be much more logical to speed up rate hikes with inflation accelerating. The Central Bank's more dovish stance than circumstances requires turns the market reaction to solid inflation figures upside down. The British currency is under pressure to release stronger-than-expected figures as investors overestimate real bond yields. This currency reaction to inflation is mainly a characteristic of emerging markets, where confidence that the situation is under the control of the Central Bank is not too strong. So far, we are only witnessing a cautious distrust of the Bank of England by Forex traders. However, the example of Japan, whose currency has lost over 6% in 3 weeks, clearly shows signs of a loss of confidence in central banks in developed countries which remain on the side of the economy and have not entirely switched over to fighting inflation.
Gold To Go Head To Head With Fed And Inflation

Gold To Go Head To Head With Fed And Inflation

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 23.03.2022 15:17
  The Fed's hawkish alerts seem like a voice in the wilderness to gold investors. However, a carefree attitude can backfire on them – in just a few months. An epic battle is unfolding across the financial markets as the Fed warns investors about its looming rate hike cycle and the latter ignores the ramifications. However, with perpetually higher asset prices only exacerbating the Fed's inflationary conundrum, a profound shift in sentiment will likely occur over the next few months. To explain, I highlighted in recent days how the Fed has turned the hawkish dial up to 100. Moreover, I wrote on Mar. 22 that it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Yet, prices remain elevated, investors remain sanguine, and the bullish bands continue to play.  However, with inflation still rising and the Fed done playing games, the next few months should elicit plenty of fireworks. For example, with another deputy sounding the hawkish alarm, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Mar. 22: "Inflation has persisted for long enough that people are starting to wonder how long it will persist. I'm already focused on letting make sure this doesn't get embedded and we see those longer-term inflation expectations drift up." As a result, Daly wants to ensure that the "main risk" to the U.S. economy doesn't end up causing a recession. Please see below: Source: Reuters Likewise, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his position on Mar. 22, telling Bloomberg that “faster is better,” and that “the 1994 tightening cycle or removal of accommodation cycle is probably the best analogy here.” Please see below: Source: Bloomberg   Falling on Deaf Ears To that point, while investors seem to think that the Fed can vastly restrict monetary policy without disrupting a healthy U.S. economy, a major surprise could be on the horizon. For example, the futures market has now priced in nearly 10 rate hikes by the Fed in 2022. As a result, should we expect the hawkish developments to unfold without a hitch? Please see below: To explain, the light blue, dark blue, and pink lines above track the number of rate hikes expected by the Fed, BoE, and ECB. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light blue line has risen sharply over the last several days and months. For your reference, if you focus your attention on the material underperformance of the pink line, you can see why I’ve been so bearish on the EUR/USD for so long. Also noteworthy, please have a look at the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield minus the German 2-Year Bond yield spread. If you analyze the rapid rise on the right side of the chart below, you can see how much short-term U.S. yields have outperformed their European counterparts in 2021/2022. Source: Bloomberg/ Lisa Abramowicz More importantly, though, with Fed officials’ recent rhetoric encouraging more hawkish re-pricing instead of talking down expectations (like the ECB), they want investors to slow their roll. However, investors are now fighting the Fed, and the epic battle will likely lead to profound disappointment over the medium term. Case in point: when Fed officials dial up the hawkish rhetoric, their “messaging” is supposed to shift investors’ expectations. As such, the threat of raising interest rates is often as impactful as actually doing it. However, when investors don’t listen, the Fed has to turn the hawkish dial up even more. If history is any indication, a calamity will eventually unfold.  Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the U.S. federal funds rate, while the various circles and notations above track the global crises that erupted during the Fed’s rate hike cycles. As a result, standard tightening periods often result in immense volatility.  However, with investors refusing to let asset prices fall, they’re forcing the Fed to accelerate its rate hikes to achieve its desired outcome (calm inflation). As such, the next several months could be a rate hike cycle on steroids.  To that point, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dropping the hawkish hammer on Mar. 21, I noted his response to a question about inflation calming in the second half of 2022. I wrote on Mar. 22: "That story has already fallen apart. To the extent it continues to fall apart, my colleagues and I may well reach the conclusion we'll need to move more quickly and, if so, we'll do so." To that point, Powell said that “there’s excess demand" and that "the economy is very strong and is well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy." As a result, while investors seem to think that Powell’s bluffing, enlightenment will likely materialize over the next few months. Please see below: Source: Reuters Furthermore, with Goldman Sachs economists noting the shift in tone from “steadily” in January to “expeditiously” on Mar. 21, they also upped their hawkish expectations. They wrote: “We are now forecasting 50bp hikes at both the May and June meetings (vs. 25bp at each meeting previously). The level of the funds rate would still be low at 0.75-1% after a 50bp hike in May, and if the FOMC is open to moving in larger steps, then we think it would see a second 50bp hike in June as appropriate under our forecasted inflation path.” “After the two 50bp moves, we expect the FOMC to move back to 25bp rate hikes at the four remaining meetings in the back half of 2022, and to then further slow the pace next year by delivering three quarterly hikes in 2023Q1-Q3. We have left our forecast of the terminal rate unchanged at 3-3.25%, as shown in Exhibit 1.” Please see below: In addition, this doesn’t account for the Fed’s willingness to sell assets on its balance sheet. For context, Powell said on Mar. 16 that quantitative tightening (QT) should occur sometime in the summer and that shrinking the balance sheet “might be the equivalent of another rate increase.” As a result, investors’ lack of preparedness for what should unfold over the next few months has been something to behold. However, the reality check will likely elicit a major shift in sentiment.  In contrast, the bond market heard Powell’s message loud and clear, and with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hitting another 2022 high of ~2.38% on Mar. 22, the entire U.S. yield curve is paying attention. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Finally, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Mar. 22. With the headline index increasing from 1 in February to 13 in March, the report cited “increases in all three of the component indexes – shipments, volume of new orders, and number of employees.” Moreover, the prices received index increased month-over-month (MoM) in March (the red box below), while future six-month expectations for prices paid and received also increased (the blue box below). As a result, inflation trends are not moving in the Fed’s desired direction. Please see below: Source: Richmond Fed Likewise, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Mar. 22, nd while the headline index decreased from 13 in February to -3 in March, current and future six-month inflationary pressures/expectations rose MoM. Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Fed is screaming at the financial markets to tone it down to help calm inflation, investors aren't listening. With higher prices resulting in more hawkish rhetoric and policy, the Fed should keep amplifying its message until investors finally take note. If not, inflation will continue its ascent until demand destruction unfolds and the U.S. slips into a recession. As such, if investors assume that several rate hikes will commence over the next several months with little or no volatility in between, they're likely in for a major surprise. In conclusion, the PMs declined on Mar. 22, as the sentiment seesaw continued. However, as I noted, it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps them uplifted, for now, the Fed's inflation problem is nowhere near an acceptable level. As a result, when investors finally realize that a much tougher macroeconomic environment confronts them over the next few months, the shift in sentiment will likely culminate in sharp drawdowns. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Tilray Stock Forecast: TLRY $6, $6.50 calls expiring on Friday jump 200%

Tilray Stock Forecast: TLRY $6, $6.50 calls expiring on Friday jump 200%

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.03.2022 15:52
Tilray stock rose 6.8% on Tuesday and is up double digits in Wednesday's premarket. High level of call contracts expire this Friday. Tilray stock is down 23% so far this year and 76% in the past year. Tilray stock is trading up 4.2% at $5.92 about 45 minutes into Wednesday's session. Shares spiked up to $6.30 at the open but have steadily lost ground as the session has progressed. Due to the large-scale call buying that occurred on Tuesday, with some 30,000 contracts being traded that expire this Friday with strike prices of $6 and $6.50, Breaking above either of these levels will receive intent focus from the market. The cost of buying call contracts at those strikes – $6 and $6.50 – are up 175% and 216%, respectively, this morning. Tilray Brands (TLRY), the massive Canadian cannabis conglomerate, is riding high in Wednesday's premarket. It appears that an unusually large volume of call options were purchased on Tuesday that is driving the price higher. Tilray stock saw a volume of 13,500 March 25 call contracts at the $6 strike price exchange hands and nearly 17,000 for the $6.50 strike. Both exceeded open interest. TLRY stock closed up 6.8% to $5.68 and up another 10% near $6.25 in Wednesday's premarket. Tilray Brands Stock News: Despite dwindling share price, expansion continues Similar to its Medmen deal last summer, Tilray announced earlier this month that it had acquired $211 million in convertible notes from Hexo, another major player in the Canadian cannabis arena. If exercised, Tilray would own about 37% of Hexo. This is unsurprising as Tilray has been on a mad tear to acquire as much of the pot industry as possible. Its deal with Medmen last summer gives it access to the US market, and its merger with Aphria around the same time created the largest cannabis company in the world. Profitability is less important to management at this stage, since their stated goal is to raise current annual revenue of $600 million to $4 billion by 2024. Not much time left guys! Tilray Brands Forecast: $6.23 is key A descending top line that began one year ago back in March and connects to highs on June 9, 2021, and November 14, 2021, has been calling the resistance shots for a long time. Despite Tuesday's spike, shares are still down 76% in the past 12 months. To break out of the long-term bearish trend, TLRY needs to close above $6.75. Resistance comes first at $6.23, where there was a shelf in late February. Then $7.30 shows resistance from the swing high in mid-February. Support is at $4.81. TLRY 1-day chart
The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

EUR/USD Loses 0.15%, GBP/USD Loses 0.35%, USD/JPY Gains 0.35%! You Hawkish Fed! Dollar Strengthens!

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 23.03.2022 20:27
Yesterday we were following forex pairs with dollars. Everybody follows dollar index (DXY) to check market’s reaction to Fed rhetoric which is verbalised by Jerome Powell (Chairman) again. Next rate hikes are highly expected. EUR/USD Chart GBP/USD Chart USD/JPY Chart USD/PLN Chart - exotic pair has gained this time, dollar seems to feel better Source/Data: Investing.com, Goldman Sachs, TradingView.com
What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 19:52
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 5,664 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 6,264 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The decline in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. The significant growth in positions of large speculators in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD can be explained by the rising prices of commodities exported by these countries. A large number of options and futures contracts expired last week, which explains the large decline in open interest for each currency. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Býčí         Total Change -19421 -11523 -601 -10922     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 18 794 contracts last week and they are down by 40 050 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 40,643 contracts and an increase in short positions by 593 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment in the euro. The open interest, which fell by 72,980 contracts in the last week, shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by a volume and it is therefore a weak price action. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine. Last week it returned to a resistance level which could be an opportunity to trade short in the event of a downtrend.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish         Total Change 4316 2845 8301 -5456     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -29,061 contracts and they are down by 16,535 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 18,540 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,005 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there is also their further decline. Open interest, which fell by 57,989 contracts last week, means that the rise in the pound price that occurred last week was not supported by volume and it is therefore a weak price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Although the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% last week, it also warned of a decline in economic growth as a result of the war in Ukraine. The change in central bank rhetoric is a bearish signal for the pound. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish         Total Change -72392 5446 -29527 34973     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 44 856 contracts, having increased by 33 339 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,706 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 28,579 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week we saw a decline in open interest of 72,573 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and it was therefore a weak move as new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440 Long-term support: 0.7160-0.7180.  A strong support is near 0.7080 – 0.7120.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish         Total Change -19267 2288 -13063 15351     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 3,653 contracts last week and they are up by 16,032 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,718 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 10,314 contracts. This data suggests that there was bullish sentiment on the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell significantly by 14,050 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.690 – 0.6930 Long-term support: 0.6730-0.6740 and the next support is at 0.6590 – 0.6600.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Fed Expectations Amid Mixed Data: Wishful Thinking or Practical Pause?

Natural Gas Price Rises As Triggered By Putin’s Rhetoric That He Will ‘Demand Rouble Gas Payments’

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 12:47
According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  
US Close – A brutal week on Wall Street ends on a positive note, Fed reiterates commitment to restoring price stability, Oil plummets on outlook, Gold lower on strong USD, Bitcoin’s danger zone

Crypto Express - Smooth Love Potion (SLP) Price, PanCake Swap (CAKE) And Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Charts

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 14:08
PanCake Swap shows a good performance ending the previous day with a sharp rise and keeping the uptrend. Smooth Love Potion was really, really high but has decreased losing almost all 10% gain. Doge (DOGE) Price doesn’t look like the recent optimistic Elon Musk’s dance as memecoin trades below 0. PanCake Swap (CAKE) Price (CAKEUSD) – 24h Chart Smooth Love Potion (SLP) Price (SLPUSD) – 24 Chart Doge Price (DOGEUSD) – 24 Chart Source/Data: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com
Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23
The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.
Nvidia Stock News and Forecast: NVDA shares up after unveiling $1 trillion market opportunity

Nvidia Stock News and Forecast: NVDA shares up after unveiling $1 trillion market opportunity

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
NVDA stock dropped 3.4% on Wednesday trading.Nvidia CEO says focus on software gives chipmaker $1 trillion market.Nvidia could reshore chip fabrication using Intel.Nvidia stock (NVDA) is up 3.2% to $264.42 on Wednesday after management announced a broader focus on software that could give Nvidia a total addressable market of $1 trillion. Additionally, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Reuters on Wednesday that he was in discussion with Intel to use the legacy chipmaker's semiconductor foundries to produce Nvidia's chips in the United States.Nvidia Stock News: $1 trillion opportunityAt an investor day presentation earlier this week, Nvidia executives walked analysts through a much larger strategy that entailed a total addressable market (TAM) for Nvidia's various business segments of $1 trillion per year. The larger market for Nvidia products than earlier estimates stems from Nvidia's new focus on software platform offerings. The bigger TAM breaks down to $150 billion from omniverse enterprise software, $150 billion from artificial intelligence software, $100 billion from gaming, $300 billion from the existing semiconductor chip business, and $300 billion from the automotive segment. A solid section of the automotive opportunity also comes from software.Evercore ISI's C.J. Muse found the large figures hard to fathom but said his investment colleagues are, “firm believers in the company’s hardware and software strategies that should deliver world-class organic growth for years to come.”Evercore and Bernstein both have recently reiterated outperform ratings for Nvidia stock. Evercore has a $375 price target on NVDA shares, a solid 44% upside, while Bernstein has a price target of $350. Bernstein pointed out in a letter to clients that Nvidia only makes a few hundred million dollars in annual revenue now from software but sees well over $300 billion in opportunity for that segment.In separate news, CEO Jensen Huang said he was quite willing to work with Intel to produce Nvidia chips onshore in the US. Currently, the company has Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) producing much of its catalog. He told reporters that it could take years of discussions to finalize a fabrication deal, however, as it is an extremely detailed process. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief the US Senate's Commerce Committee on his company's plans to utilize funding from the $52 billion CHIPS Act to reshore and expand US semiconductor fabrication.Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA bulls hope for $284Monday and Tuesday of this week both saw Nvidia stock break above the February 10 swing high at $269.25. Right now in the $264s, Nvidia is at support. If it falls below $255.50, volume pressure may push NVDA down to $240, where there is support from both February and the 50-day moving average. To keep the rally going, bulls will try to make a play for $284.22. This level acted as resistance in early to mid-January.Back on March 16, Nvidia shares broke out of a descending trend that began on November 22, 2021. For the rally to continue, the 20-day moving average needs to break above the 50-day moving average fairly soon, possibly by the end of next week at the latest. Long-term support continues to sit at $208.90.NVDA 1-day chart
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8
Russia's Active Production Cuts Could Be Grounds For A Bullish Shock

Oil Has Increased By 20%! How Have Crude Oil Price Fluctuated Since The Beginning Of The Russia-Ukraine War? It’s Over $112 Now…

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 15:45
While everybody was wondering about the end of the COVID-19 pandemy and Russia invaded Ukraine what started affecting the markets. Obviously natural gas and crude oil price are volatile recently. EU leaders accompanied by Joe Biden discuss outlooks and most probably next sanctions. As we wrote in the report about natural gas price the rise started to confuse the world few days after the invasion. It seems that all sanctions and fail of ceasefire negotiations made the crude oil price rise gain momentum. In the middle of March prices got back to the levels of the beginning of the month, but aggressive rhetoric of Russia made BRENT and WTI trading higher again. Let’s have a look at the Crude Oil Price monthly chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) 5-days chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) of Crude Oil Price shows a significant rise in recent days Data/Source: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com
Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2022 16:46
Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April

Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.03.2022 09:47
This week, we’ve seen another mainly firmer week on the crypto boards, with the top 10 adding over 5% and the top 25 gaining over 5.5%. It wasn’t all smooth sailing as sellers tried to get things going lower early in the week before buyers returned and set the direction for the remainder of the week. Looking at the top 100, Qtum was one of the leaders this week, adding 45% and Looping had a fantastic week, climbing over 58% in the last seven days. ApeCoin failed to catch weekly buyer momentum, dropping over 18% during the week. One of the week’s stories to watch is reports Russia is looking at bitcoin as a payment form to settle energy transactions. Western sanctions continue to hit the Russian economy hard and effectively locked out of the USD FX market. The Kremlin is looking at other payment options, including Bitcoin. Putin has changed his tune on bitcoin. In 2021, the Russian leader told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble that while he believed bitcoin had value, he wasn’t convinced it could replace the U.S. dollar in settling oil trades. Now, the Kremlin’s top brass is weighing it as a form of payment for major exports. It’s unclear, however, whether bitcoin’s relative lack of liquidity could support international trade transactions of that magnitude. – CNBC This week we are focusing on a favorite that has, like many, seen a rough run over the last few months. Cardano started the year with two months of sharp declines that saw the price drop back to 0.7440. Since then, we’ve seen a fightback that’s produced two higher weekly bars, the first time since November 2021. This week’s price broke out of its long term downtrend, another firm sign that demand is back on track, which is what we want to see from here. If buyers can break 1.206 resistance, that would be another win, but we would like to see a new reaction in lower form. A new higher low that sets up a break and closes above that resistance point could send a firmer signal that this new run higher might actually turn into something more. The post Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April appeared first on Eightcap.
Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.03.2022 12:15
Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 27.03.2022 20:13
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/2YHOJMDX-XAUUSD-KOG-Report/KOG Report:In last weeks KOG Report we said we were expecting a big move on the horizon which may throw a lot of traders of course. Instead, we got majority of the week in the range and then a break just slightly above towards the end of the week. We got the push up into the 1930s price level which gave a great short into one of the targets we suggested being 1910. We managed to guide trades through the range and managed a fantastic week netting over 300pips on Gold alone. Not to mention the other pairs that hit targets at Camelot.So what can we expect in the week ahead?We’re going to keep it short this week with a plan to go long but, we want to see how the market opens. We have an area in mind which is around the 1985 price mark, but we want to see if this pushes up in the early sessions and tests that 1960-65 region first! We can see here that we have broken out of the range but only slightly, that previous resistance level has now become support, a strong test on that support is needed and this needs to hold for this to go higher and challenge that 1985 level as the first target and above that 1997. So we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind.Scenario 1:Price come down on opening sessions and tests that lower support region which is also the top of the previous range between 1945-50. We don’t want the price to close and hold below this level, we want to see a quick visit and rejection here. IF we do get the support, we want then we will be looking to go long up towards the 1965 region first and above that 1985. The higher region and target of 1997 is where we want to see a reaction on price and depending on that reaction, we may test the short trade there! If we hold below that support level and it becomes resistance again we will be waiting lower around the 1930-25 price point where again we will look for support and attempt to go long. We will update you as we go along during the week.Scenario 2:Price pushes up into 1960-65. We want to see it resist here and then hold above the 1950 level. As long as we get that retest we will then attempt the long trade back up into those levels. This scenario only works on the retest as we don’t want to short for 100pips back down into major support. So please wait for confirmation on the trade. Again, breaking and closing below that level and we will wait lower to go long which we will update you on. Both these scenarios are effective if the price stays above the support level which was previous resistance. This week is going to be really important, it’s the end of the month, financial year and the quarter. There is going to be a lot of volume in the markets with institutions covering positions and wanting to close out of positions. That move we were anticipating last week which will throw traders off may happen this week. Please tread carefully and control your lot sizes, always have a risk strategy in place and allow yourself time to manage your position. Before we go, we would like to wish all the mothers a happy mothers day and all our followers a great end to the weekend. We’ll be back tomorrow with an update.As always, trade safe.KOG
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls in the Spotlight as Risk Turns Positive

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls in the Spotlight as Risk Turns Positive

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.03.2022 19:55
We wrap up this month’s Trade Zone Week Ahead coverage with a final look ahead at what’s in store this week as markets open. Last Friday ended on a positive note as Wall Street finished on a high, with both the Nasdaq and S&P500 posting positive gains for one of the best weeks of the year so far. All eyes this week will be whether this turn in sentiment continues. With the Ukraine conflict heading into new territory with talks of Russia wanting to divide the country in two, there are still plenty of headlines to keep traders on their toes, not to mention another Non-Farm payroll reading looming this coming Friday. With the Fed now pushing for further interest rate rises in the coming months, against a backdrop of a buoyant job market and rampant inflation, Friday’s result might just shed some further light on what Fed policy might look like in the months to come. In today’s Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead, we discuss the present scenarios in FX, indices, oil and gold. Watch the video below to get this week’s latest insights. REGISTER FOR THIS MONTH’S FINAL LIVE MARKET UPDATE WITH BORIS AND KATHY Join us at 10 PM AEDT (11 AM GMT) this coming Wednesday as Boris and Kathy complete their monthly takeover of our Trade Zone series. Register to attend the final midweek live market update for March, as we analyse the key moves of the week and look ahead at all the potential trade set up as the weekend approaches. It’s the perfect compact session to give you valuable pointers into what you should be watching out for as the month ends, and you also get the opportunity to ask experts the questions you have on your mind right now in a live Q&A. Registration is free. Click below to secure your seat. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday GBP BoE Governor Bailey speech Tuesday AUD Retail Sales, Wednesday EUR Inflation Rate USD JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, GDP Thursday USD Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims GBP GDP CAD GDP Friday EUR CPI USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing PMI The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls in the Spotlight as Risk Turns Positive appeared first on Eightcap.
S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 28.03.2022 15:55
  Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,550-4,600, marked by the previous local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 index trades closer to its January-February local highs along the 4,600 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It is trading close to the new local high. Potential resistance level is at around 4,585, marked by the previous highs. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term. However, to protect our gain, we decided to move the stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat this morning. However, the futures contract retraced its overnight advance, so we may see more uncertainty and a potential profit-taking action. The war In Ukraine remains a negative factor for the markets. The global markets will also be waiting for this Friday’s monthly jobs data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index extended its uptrend on Friday; this morning the futures contract retreated from its new local high. We are maintaining our profitable long position (opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340), but we moved stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute
Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.03.2022 17:25
With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.The latter is indeed currently switching its energy supplies from Russian natural gas (pipeline-transported) to the much more polluting and much more expensive US shale gas. The reasons are much higher extraction (fracking) and transportation costs since it requires additional processes such as liquefaction/degasification and the deployment of more port terminals that are able to provide such steps – also much more energy-consuming – linked to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.(Source: ResearchGate.net)By doing so, the European Union is going to increase its dependence on the US whilst a new and stronger block (including Asia) emerges on the east side.As a result, we have already started to witness dedollarisation in international trade, with the petroyuan set to dethrone the heavily-printed petrodollar.No wonder that the US dollar supply surge has ended up triggering uncontrollable and probably still underestimated inflation. As a result, this monetary virus is spreading through the global economy at a faster pace than any other variant! WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.” – Dr Karl Otto PöhlThat’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.03.2022 21:32
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Indonesia's Inflation Slips, Central Bank Maintains Rates Amidst Stability

Intraday Market Analysis – JPY Struggles For Bids

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.03.2022 08:40
USDJPY seeks support The Japanese yen recouped some losses after a drop in February’s unemployment rate. The pair surged to August 2015’s high and the psychological level of 125.00. An overwhelmingly overbought RSI may cause a pullback if short-term buyers start to unwind their bets. As the market mood stays upbeat, trend followers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. 122.20 is the closest level if the greenback needs to gather support. A break above the current resistance would propel the pair to new highs above 127.00. AUDUSD hits major resistance The Australian dollar stalls as caution prevails ahead of major economic data. The rally slowed down at last October’s peak at 0.7550. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on the Aussie. The bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate in hope of a new round of rally. 0.7400 from the latest bullish breakout would be key support should this happen. On the upside, an extended rally could propel the pair to last June’s highs around 0.7770 and pave the way for a reversal in the medium-term. US 100 to test major resistance Growth stocks rose amid a sell-off in the bond market. Short-term sentiment remains bullish after a series of higher lows which indicates sustained buying interest. The Nasdaq 100 is heading to the daily resistance at 15050. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally, foreshadowing a potential retracement. 14600 is the support and its breach may trigger a sell-off towards 14200 which sits at the base of the recent breakout. A close above the said hurdle may put the index back on track in the weeks to come.
CFD News: US30, Have bulls started a new leg higher?

CFD News: US30, Have bulls started a new leg higher?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 29.03.2022 10:26
As traders continue to watch the situation between Ukraine and Russia, we continue to see certain risk markets pull back losses seen on the outbreak of the conflict. The US30 is one of the indexes that have pulled together several solid weeks after setting lows in February. Since that low, we have seen just under 9% added back to the index after it hit its 32,215 low back in February. Oversold or the fact that the conflict may have been overdone in terms of selling or with both countries continuing to meet for talks, could be feeding the fightback. Let’s not sugarcoat it, this is a war, and there have been catastrophic repercussions on the Ukrainian people and the country due to the Russian invasion. Representatives from both countries are currently meeting in Turkey, and let’s hope they can find some common ground and bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Not that that will just fix the carnage that the country has gone through and bring back all the needless casualties seen since the start of the invasion. The US30’s fortunes might be intertwined with the talk in some aspects as if we see a peace agreement, and it is respected by the Russian government, this may continue to feed hopes of recovery. We can see the breakout this week that cleared 34,830 resistance. This has continued to confirm the overall V reversal pattern, and we’re looking for the breakout to maintain the idea we are seeing a new leg higher in the current trend. A failure strong as first thought. If the leg continues, we will be looking at 35,835 to show possible resistance if reached. Data wise, there are a few things traders will be watching this week. Today we have consumer confidence and Jolts job openings. Thursday, PCE price and index and Friday US employment data, including non-farm employment change. US30 D1 Chart The post CFD News: US30, Have bulls started a new leg higher? appeared first on Eightcap.
The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Charts - Daily, Monthly, BTC/GOLD - 29/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.03.2022 11:35
Bitcoin wins the race   While Russia accepts hard currencies like gold, a move like this shows that the efficient attributes of bitcoin come to the forefront in times of crisis and are accepted for large business transactions between nations. Bitcoin, daily chart, price breakout: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 29th, 2022. Shortly after, president Putin confirmed this new way of doing business. In addition, China and Russia agreed to a thirty-year contract in the gas sector, transacted in Euros. We can see that we find ourselves in times of currency warfare and that it is essential to pay close attention to where and in what form we store our values. The daily chart above reflects this recent news in a price advance of bitcoin from US$37,567 to US$47,701. A 28% advance in just two weeks. Bitcoin broke through the sideways range, and this week shall show whether this breakout will be a successful one or not. In this case, the bulls have their odds much in favor over the bears.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, price left the station: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2022. We have now left the entry zone (green box) compared to last week’s chart book and the published weekly chart. While the crowd now chases a trade, struggling with the typical inefficiencies of volatility breakouts (bad fills, slippage, being late), we are established in our positioning with the sum of 9 accumulated runners. The runners being the last 25% of each initial position. A fully de-risked or more precisely no-risk venture (see quad exit)! Looking at the weekly chart, we find the resistance distribution zones at around US$49,650 and US$52,430. We place additional entries if the price returns to the entry box top. Bitcoin, monthly chart, if March closes strong: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 28th, 2022. The price has entered the confirmed buy zone from a monthly perspective. The dual chart shows the progression from last week’s anticipation to this week’s chart book release. Should prices within this week stay within the green box, all-time frames are in alignment. A picture of a confirmed bullish bitcoin trend. It is a rare occurrence and confirmation for larger time frame traders and a call to look for low-risk entries, if no sufficient exposure is at play yet. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin wins the race: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 28th, 2022. Another split-screen view of a chart (a daily chart of the bitcoin/gold ratio) shows the progression of last week’s chart book publication and the situation right now. We had a triangle breakout last week and a substantial advance since then. The suggested rotation out of gold and into bitcoin was/is a successful one. The overall move was 30% in just two weeks. One can use this relationship as well to indicate bitcoins’ recent gain in strength and direction. Bitcoin wins the race: Change is never accepted lightly. We typically resist change and prefer an existing state of affairs as human beings. Nevertheless, we find ourselves in less than average circumstances with a worldwide pandemic, a never-ending war, and a general divide in opinions. Russia’s recent move towards approval of bitcoin shows that when the rubber meets the road, what works and is practical in times of crisis and need, wins the race. While governments around the globe feverishly try to get their electronic payment systems developed, bitcoin already finds its use spreading, and successfully so.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 29th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

Crypto Market Talk Is Back And Chainlink, AVAX, Bitcoin, ETH And Litecoin Are Analysed!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 29.03.2022 18:58
You'll soon be able to pay your taxes with Bitcoin in Rio de Janeiro! What is up with Chainlink, why is there such a big discrepancy between the price and the Total Value Secured (TVS) numbers? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:56 BTC 10:23 ETH 15:56 Litecoin 18:34 Chainlink 22:40 Avalanche 26:14 Sandbox 29:40 Solana 32:31 Good bye & subscribe Every week Feyyaz Alingan looks at the most important cryptocurrencies and discusses the most important developments in the crypto space to share his thoughts in the Crypto Market Talk. Which coins could go to the moon and which could go bust? What is behind the hype of the different blockchain technologies and how can YOU participate? If you don’t want to miss the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies and want to stay up to date with Bitcoin and co. - Crypto Market Talk is the best place to stay subscribed! Feyyaz Alingan founded Blue Alpine Research and regularly publishes analysis & news on the topic of cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFTs on YouTube and via Podcast.
DYDX AT BREAKOUT POINT

DYDX AT BREAKOUT POINT

Peter Adepoju Peter Adepoju 29.03.2022 19:46
We have DYDX in a descending channel. We also have an inner trendline serving as support for the price movement. I expect the price to retrace back to this trendline before takeoff out of the trendline. But if price should break the inner trendline downward, then price will fall more. What do you think? Share your opinion in the comment section You can also demand for analysis of your preferred coin Happy Trading https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DYDXUSDT/4C2zwETr-DYDX-AT-BREAKOUT-POINT/ Join my FREE Telegram Channel for daily updates and signals https://t.me/Petrock_Signals
USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 30.03.2022 07:41
USDCHF tests support The US dollar edged lower as traders ditched its safe-haven appeal. The pair met strong support at 0.9260 over the 30-day moving average. A break above the immediate resistance at 0.9340 prompted short-term sellers to cover their positions, opening the door for potential bullish continuation. A break above 0.9370 could bring the greenback back to the 12-month high at 0.9470. 0.9260 is major support in case of hesitation and its breach could invalidate the current rebound. XAUUSD struggles for support Gold struggles as risk appetite returns amid ceasefire talks. A fall below 1940 forced those hoping for a swift rebound to bail out. On the daily chart, gold’s struggle to stay above the 30-day moving average suggests a lack of buying power. Sentiment grows cautious as the metal tentatively breaks the psychological level of 1900. A drop below 1880 could make bullion vulnerable to a broader sell-off to 1850. An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters, but buyers need to lift offers around 1940 before they could expect a rebound. UK 100 heads towards recent peak The FTSE 100 continues upward as Russia promises to de-escalate. A bullish close above the origin of the February sell-off at 7550 has put the index back on track. Sentiment has become increasingly upbeat over a series of higher highs. The lack of selling pressure would send the index back to this year’s high at 7690. A bullish breakout may resume the uptrend in the medium term. As the RSI shot into the overbought zone, profit-taking could drive the price down temporarily and 7460 would be the closest support.
Another Avalanche (AVAX) drawdown? | Crypto Market Talk | Swissquote - 25/05/22

Ethereum, AVAX, Terra, Solana And Other Layers 1 & 2 Projects Updates - Week 22/03-28/03/22

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 30.03.2022 08:50
ETH’s Shanghai upgrade will boost EVM, reduce Layer-2 fees. BTC’s Lightning network completes it first stablecoin transaction. Polygon unveils a new token burn mechanism. MAR 29, 2022     Key Takeaways Ethereum (ETH)’s latest AllCoreDevs updates talked about the highly anticipated next upgrade named Shanghai, which will incorporate Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) upgrades, Beacon Chain withdrawals, L2 Fee reductions, and more.  Bitcoin (BTC)’s Lightning network completed its first stablecoin transaction. Layer 2 solution Polygon (MATIC) introduced a new token burn mechanism called ‘Mobile burn’ to move towards deflationary tokenomics and more predictable gas prices. Cronos (CRO) saw a +8.07% increase in total transactions to 25.04M, while its TVL grew to US$3.67B (+12.83% week-on-week). The total number of wallet addresses now stands at 489,967, up +6.31% from last week. Highlights BNB Chain to launch application-specific sidechains to reduce network strain Top 10 Ethereum wallets now hold 23.7% of total ETH supply: Santiment Bitcoin miner Iris Energy secures $71 million in equipment financing Avalanche bridge to add native support for Bitcoin, expanding opportunities for BTC in Avalanche DeFi Introducing Core: the new operating system for Web3 users Tether (USDT) Issued on Avalanche (AVAX) hits $351 Million Avalanche Foundation, OP3N launch $100M Web3 culture fund Terra’s LFG among largest new Bitcoin (BTC) holders: IntoTheBlock Algorand upgrades will boost speed and privacy, founder says Axie Infinity launches fee reform to scale transactions on Ronin sidechain Cardano set to hit major interoperability milestone as EVM compatible Layer 2 launches Blockchain middleware Pocket Network adds support for L2 solution Boba Layer 1 Project Metrics     Layer 2 Project Metrics    
Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

It's Not A Surprise Many Investors Wonder Which Altcoins To Buy

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.03.2022 08:53
Bitcoin has been losing 0.7% in the last 24 hours to $47K. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose from 0.3% (XRP) to 8.6% (Solana). BTC is going lower According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.7% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The dominance index immediately fell by 0.6 points to 41.5% due to the strengthening of altcoins. Cryptocurrency index of fear and greed by Thursday rolled back from 55 to 52 points and is now in a neutral state. Solana led the way with news from NFT platform OpenSea, which announced in April that they would add support for tokens on the SOL blockchain. Bitcoin continues to cautiously retreat lower from its 200-day moving average at $48,200, building up strength ahead of a likely move north. The decline in US stock indices on Wednesday after four days of growth also did not contribute to the positive dynamics. Investors are searching for new ideas The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised the outstripping growth of altcoins: it is worth paying attention to in order to understand that among cryptocurrency traders there are no fears for the sector, but there is a search for new ideas, away from institutional capital and the eyes of politicians. There is an influx of stablecoins to centralized platforms, which may indicate the interest of investors in the upcoming purchases of cryptocurrencies. According to a survey by blockchain company StarkWare, 50% of Americans see cryptocurrencies as the future of the financial system. According to Morning Consult, more than 91% of Americans have already heard about cryptocurrencies, of which 19% are owners of digital assets. Bitcoin miners made $3 billion in three months, according to Coin Metrics. ETH miners earned more in the same time period, about $3.7 billion.
Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling

Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 01.04.2022 10:10
This week got off to a similar start as last, with buyers controlling momentum for the first four days of trade. Friday saw a heavy fade set up with half of the week’s gains cut on the top 10 and top 25 indexes after seeing just over 10% of gains to the week’s high. Some headlines have come out where Bitcoin has briefly moved back above 48K. Ethereum is set for an upgrade, and it’s being called a merge. This will be a joining of mainnet and the beacon chain proof-of-stake system. The ‘merge’ will mark the end of proof-of-work (PoW) for Ethereum in favour of the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism. This is due in the second quarter of 2022. Ronin hack, around 600 million was stolen from the Ronin network. A blockchain associated with the popular pay-to-earn game Axie Infinity. This was one of the largest hacks in Crypto history. Around 173,600 Ether and 25.5 stable coins were taken. Looking at this weekend and next week’s session, we are wondering if the current fade is short term or if something deeper is happening here. This is the third straight week of solid gains before heavy selling developed. Following on from the fade, Ripple is in an interesting position. Price failed at key resistance and has made a breakthrough the fast uptrend. Price bounced off the main uptrend but, for now, sits in no man’s land. A hold after the test of the main trend line could set up a new continuation higher, but if we see a break of the main trend line, this could suggest that a deeper correction could be underway. The post Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling appeared first on Eightcap.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Is There Any Chance Of A Positive Ethereum Price Prediction? Cryptocurrency Ripple (XRP) Price Has Plunged!

Jason Sen Jason Sen 01.04.2022 12:27
Bitcoin bulls held prices above the 500 day moving average at 43600 for a buy signal targeting 46600/800 & the 200 day moving average at 48100/300. A high for the day exactly here & shorts here worked perfectly on the collapse from 48226 to 45800/600 & support at 44200/44000 for an easy 4000 pips. Ripple collapsed from just below very strong resistance at 9140/9160 & broke first support at 8450/00 yesterday to hit the next target of 8050/8000 before a low just 100 pips above support at 7700/7650. Ethereum made a high for the week exactly at key resistance 3450/3500. Shorts worked perfectly on the collapsed as far as support at 3210/3190. Longs need stops below 3150. Update daily by 06:00 GMT Today’s Analysis Bitcoin tests the best support for today at 44200/44000. Longs need stops below 43500. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 42000/41500. This is the last line of defence for bulls – a break below 41000 is a medium term sell signal, initially targeting 40000 & the March low at 37500/37000. Strong resistance at the 200 day moving average at 48100/300 over the weekend. Obviously bulls need a break above 48700 for a buy signal. Ripple holding above 8100 today allows a recovery to first resistance at 8400/8500. If we break higher look for 8730/50, perhaps as far as 8850. Further gains retest very strong resistance at 8950/90. Holding below 8050 tests support at 7700/7650. Longs need stops below 7600. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7400/7350 then 7000/6950. Ethereum tests support at 3210/3190. Longs need stops below 3150. A break lower targets 312010 then very strong support at 3050/10. :ns 2950. A break below 2850 is a medium term sell signal. Key resistance at 3450/3500. Shorts need stops above 3550. A break higher is another buy signal targeting 3620/30 & 3710/40. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.04.2022 21:41
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,355 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 3,794 contracts and an increase in short positions of 2,539 contracts. There was a significant decrease in the total net positions of large speculators in the Canadian dollar last week, which fell by 22,690 contracts. At the same time, total net positions of large speculators moved from bullish to overall bearish sentiment for the first time in 10 weeks. The rise in total net positions of large speculators occurred only in the euro last week. There was a decline in total net positions in the other currencies monitored. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish         Total Change -41281 -11922 3077 -14999     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 23,843 contracts last week, up by 5,049 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,011 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 38 contracts. These data suggest bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest fell by 7,193 contracts last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and is therefore a weak trend. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. It returned to a resistance level last week, which could be an opportunity to trade short.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0650-1.0700. The support can b also a value around 1.0900.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish         Total Change -2236 -11956 16743 -28699     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish         Total Change -68636 6424 -28128 34552     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 51,189 contracts, down by 6,333 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 534 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,799 contracts. This data suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week there was an increase in open interest of 3,246 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a significant resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                               Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A strong support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish         Total Change -19621 -12 -12898 12886     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 2,520 contracts last week, down by 1,133 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,337 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,204 contracts. This data suggests that there was a weakening of bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell by 3,944 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6920 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Can BTCUSD Reach Ca. $5M!? It's Approaching $50k At The Moment...

Can BTCUSD Reach Ca. $5M!? It's Approaching $50k At The Moment...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.04.2022 08:43
Bitcoin rose 0.6% over the past week, ending it at around $46,400. Ethereum added 8%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose in price from 0.1% (XRP) to 30% (Solana). BTC found a balance According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1.3% over the week, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index over the same period of time sank by 1.5% points, to 40.7% due to the growth of altcoins. At the beginning of the new week, the cryptocurrency index of fear and greed rose from 48 to 52, remaining within the neutral range. Bitcoin has corrected down since Thursday along with the decline in stock indices. Noticeable resistance was provided by the $48K level with the 200-day moving average passing close to it. Over the weekend, the first cryptocurrency found a balance near $46K. Bulls are preventing Bitcoin from falling The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised that buyers manage to keep bitcoin from falling to the area of previous peaks near $45, turning the former resistance into effective support. However, a breakout of the 200-day moving average is still required to confirm bullish sentiment. Breaking out of the $45-48K range could signal the start of a broader trend in the direction of the breakout. In early April, the commemorative 19 millionth coin was mined in the bitcoin network. At the moment, more than 90% of the total emission of the first cryptocurrency has been mined, which is limited to 21 million coins. Bitcoin can reach $4.8 million if it acquires the status of a global reserve asset, according to VanEck investment company. However, this scenario is unlikely. The top contender for the status of world reserve currency is now the Chinese yuan.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Crypto Market Capitalization Update. Bitcoin, ETH And Solana News And Prices

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 04.04.2022 12:08
Nearly $200M flowed into crypto the last 3 months, with BTC, SOL and ETH as the biggest gainers. Axie Infinity experienced a $625M hack. Trezor cold wallet users targeted with phishing emails. APR 04, 2022     Key Takeaways Crypto funds saw US$ 193M of capital inflow – the largest in 3 months. The top 3 cryptocurrencies according to the CoinShares report, were Bitcoin (BTC) at US$ 97.8M, Solana (SOL) at US$ 87.1M, and Ethereum (ETH) at US$ 10.2M. Popular Play-to-Earn blockchain game Axie Infinity saw its layer 2 bridge compromised and hacked totalling over US$ 625M worth in ETH and USDC. A detailed breakdown of the hack can be found on Ronin network’s substack. The hacked funds are being held at this address. Cold wallet provider Trezor is looking into a potential data breach which targeted users with phishing emails. Trezor followed with a Twitter update citing the breach could have been from a newsletter hosted on MailChimp. TradFi Gold Industry participants are looking to utilise blockchain technology to create an immutable record for physical deliverable gold across the globe. The Gold Bar Integrity Programme is aimed at improving transparency for consumers, investors and market participants. The general price, volume, and volatility indices were positive at +5.17%, +24.44%, and +105.07% respectively. Highlights Fed’s preferred inflation gauge up 6.4% in February to four-decade high US adds 431K jobs in March, as unemployment rate nears pre-pandemic level From taxes to electricity, blockchain adoption is growing in Austria CME group ‘looking at’ offering Solana, Cardano futures Tesla taps MakerDAO-powered lender for $7.8M real estate deal New funding round values Blockchain.com at $14B South Korea’s SK Square will spend $1.6B on semiconductors, blockchain Eldridge, A16z lead $620M financing round for fintech Cross River Bank Nasdaq-listed Microstrategy obtains $205M Bitcoin-backed loan to buy more BTC Sequoia, FTX Ventures and A16z lead $135M investment in LayerZero labs breaking down barriers between blockchains Blockchain security firm CertiK just raised $88M, SEC docs show Check the latest prices on Crypto.com/Price. Market Index Tokens   Metrics Price Volume Volatility Top Gainers ATOM (+12.83%)LINK (+10.73%)ETH (+9.86%) ATOM (+64.66%)EOS (+48.68%)XLM (+39.71%) ATOM (+154.73%)ETH (+136.16%)EOS (+93.54%) Top Losers – ADA (-21.85%) ADA (-40.58%)XMR (-9.99%) Benchmark BTC (+3.22%) BTC (+24.71%) BTC (+63.39%)       * Market index tokens: BTC, ETH, XMR, LINK, EOS, XLM, XTZ, ATOM, ADA, DOT DeFi Tokens   Metrics Price Volume Volatility Top Gainers FXS (+99.42%)AAVE (+48.80%)JOE (+42.89%) FXS (+694.82%)AAVE (+240.63%)COMP (+222.87%) FXS (+364.18%)ANC (+318.18%)YFI (+294.64%) Top Losers – SPELL (-12.32%)LDO (-0.07%) SPELL (-39.24%)LDO (-11.80%)LINK (-6.74%) Benchmark ETH (+9.86%) ETH (+28.81%) ETH (+136.16%)       *DeFI index tokens: AAVE, ANC, BAL, CAKE, COMP, CRV, CVX, FXS, JOE, LDO, LINK, MKR, OSMO, REN, SNX, SPELL, SUSHI, UNI, VVS, YFI Other Tokens   Price Change (%) NFT Gaming Meme Top Gainers THETA (+10.16%)FLOW (+8.32%)WAXP (+7.8%) MBOX (+53.96%)POLIS (+12.21%)DAWN (+8.54%) SHIB (+3.9%)DOGE (+0.1%) Top Losers OGN (-3.82%) ATLAS (-3.59%)AXS (-3.44%)SAND (-1.55%) HOGE (-18.67%)MONA (-3.54%)       *NFT tokens: THETA, CHZ, ENJ, FLOW, FET, WAX, OGN, UOS, OMI*Gaming tokens: AXS, MANA, SAND, ALICE, YGG, MBOX, ILV, ATLAS, POLIS, DAWN*Meme tokens: DOGE, SHIB, MONA, HOGE, PEPECASH
Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

Tezos, Cardano, Aave - Crypto Market Talk | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 05.04.2022 19:43
Why is Greenpeace against Bitcoin? What type of environmental discussions are important when it comes to trading Bitcoin, Ethereum and could Ethereum Classic be the alternative trade or is Ethereum possibly the trade of the year? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:57 BTC 06:28 ETH 09:48 Ethereum Classic 11:08 Tezos 13:18 Cardano 16:02 Aave 17:52 Polkadot 19:40 DeFi Kingdoms / Avalanche 21:16 Good bye & subscribe Every week Feyyaz Alingan looks at the most important cryptocurrencies and discusses the most important developments in the crypto space to share his thoughts in the Crypto Market Talk. Which coins could go to the moon and which could go bust? What is behind the hype of the different blockchain technologies and how can YOU participate? If you don’t want to miss the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies and want to stay up to date with Bitcoin and co. - Crypto Market Talk is the best place to stay subscribed! Feyyaz Alingan founded Blue Alpine Research and regularly publishes analysis & news on the topic of cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFTs on YouTube and via Podcast.
The Recent Rally Of Bitcoin Had Been Capped, The Digital Yuan (eCNY) Has Received Upgrades

Crypto Update: Bitcoin minor correction or something more?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 06.04.2022 12:09
Looking at Bitcoin, we are seeing a few things to keep an eye on. So far, crypto markets look to be following equities lower after yesterday’s Fed shock around inflation worries and policy adjustment to try and correct it (rate rises). Today has seen a second straight day off losses for Bitcoin as sellers continue to hold sway. Fed members shocked risk markets yesterday after reports showed US inflation had climbed to 40-year highs. Their comments came in aggressive and suggested they’re ready to take action to try and rein in the current inflation problem. That normally means rate rises, and comments suggested a more aggressive approach could be coming soon. Bitcoin has been patchy at best over the last 5-trading days, with more of a range forming after the late March first leg lower. That leg broke the fast trend, and we saw an LH form after that break. These one-two patterns can be a good sign of further weakness coming. Selling continued (yesterday and today), confirming the pattern. That brings us to the level/area we are watching, and we have marked it with a green box on the D1 chart. This level is a demand area, and we can see this when buyers held firm on a few occasions. This area is important to us moving forward. If buyers can hold, we are looking at a possible minor correction in play which could turn into a new continuation higher. A move through the area and we could have a deeper move lower on our hands, and we will have to look and wait for when or if price can set a new higher low above or around the new trend line. Bitcoin D1 Chart The post Crypto Update: Bitcoin minor correction or something more? appeared first on Eightcap.
How Will NEAR, BALANCER And RAMP Move In The Near Future?

How Will NEAR, BALANCER And RAMP Move In The Near Future?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 08.04.2022 15:43
At this stage, it looks like we are set for a decline in the top 25 coins, snapping a three-week winning streak that has seen just over28% added in the last three weeks. So far, the top 25 index is down a touch over 6% late in the week. The major coins started the week with gains but found it hard to hold momentum. Selling really ramped up on Tuesday as risk markets reacted to further inflation worries. US inflation hit 40-year highs and set up a quick response from the Fed. Members said that policy adjustments would be made swiftly to try and rain in the worrying inflation. This set off the USD. The USD index quickly broke back above 99 and continued to push higher, trading up to 99.71. As traders moved quickly out of risk assets, this looks to have been a strong factor for sellers of crypto. Tuesday was the worst day so far in the week, with over 5% taken off the top 10 and 6.5% taken off the top 25. Sellers tried to get another move going on Thursday but were rejected by buyers. Friday’s trade saw a fightback, but many coins share a similar pattern of a counter-rally after a trend break. Friday’s session gave us a few surprises, with NEAR and BALANCER both trading over 15% higher during the session. RAMP was another strong mover, adding over 30% during Friday’s session. Looking to next week, attention will have to remain on the inflation and policy situation of the Fed as it looks to be having an influence. We are also keen on seeing if some of Friday’s counter-rallies can become something more. This week, due to some mixed-signal price action-wise, we’re going to break down what we see on the daily top 25 index chart. Yes, with Eightcap you can trade an index CFD over the top 25 coins. Let’s not what we’re watching. Clearly, we can see the descending triangle pattern that buyers broke out of, which also broke the long-term downtrend. All nice bullish signs so far. We’ve seen the first leg up that could be seen as a stage one. In the short term, we’ve seen resistance and supply develop, which has stopped the trend for now. The leg lower has beaten the fast uptrend, but it’s started to find demand and support off the 50 and 38.2fib points, which show a healthy retracement area. Where does that leave us? With mixed price signals in the short and medium-term, we want to see if buyers can maintain the fib points and make a new move to test resistance. A break of resistance and the trend should be back on. A fail at or below resistance that sets up a new lower high is a warning and could signal further seller momentum to come. If price moves back below the 50 or 61.8%, we would start to worry about the buyer’s control on the current leg high. The post Crypto Focus: Top 25 Coins Set for a Decline? appeared first on Eightcap.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:40
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,306 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,409 contracts and an increase in short positions by 103 contracts. Growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In the Japanese yen, in particular, the decline in total net positions of large speculators has been very strong. Over the past five weeks, total net positions have decreased by 38 944 contracts. The total net positions of large speculators are the most bearish for the yen in the last 20 weeks. This may be due to the Bank of Japan's continuing dovish monetary policy to support Japanese economic growth. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish         Total Change -39632 -17856 8351 -26207     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 21,374 contracts last week, down by 2,469 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,008 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,539 contracts. This data indicates weak bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 3 598 contracts in the last week. This shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and is therefore strong price action. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week it returned to the resistance level from which it bounced downwards. Long-term resistance: 1.1160 – 1.1180 Support: 1.0950-1.0980 and the next support is at 1.080-1.0850.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish         Total Change 29063 -19527 22780 -42307     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish         Total change -49571 22268 -14820 37088     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 49,606 contracts last week, having grown by 1,583 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 10,213 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,630 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but they increased last week. There was an increase in open interest of 15,240 contracts last week. This means that the sideways movement that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar moved near a strong resistance level last week. If it is validly broken then a further bullish movement may be seen.  Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish         Total Change -29224 -9419 -17885 8466     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 867 contracts, having fallen by 3,387 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,652 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,735 contracts. This data suggests that there was a bearish sentiment for the New Zealand dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators got negative. Open interest fell by 375 contracts last week.  Therefore, the sideways move in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and got to the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6880 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
ETH – Top-Down Analysis!

ETH – Top-Down Analysis!

Richard Nasr Richard Nasr 11.04.2022 13:07
DAILY: Left ChartETH is overall bullish trading inside the orange channel, and now approaching the lower orange trendline acting as non-horizontal support. So we will be looking for trend-following buy setupsMoreover, the zone 3000 is a strong resistance turned support. H1: Right ChartETH is forming a channel in red but the upper trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => For the bulls to take over, we need to see a break above the upper red trendline and last high. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, ETH can still trade lower inside the horizontal green support. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!~Rich
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 22:12
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 911 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,932 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,843 contracts. The growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Interest rate decisions will be made by the central banks of New Zealand and Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB on Thursday this week. The published monetary policy of these banks will be the decisive driver for the NZD, the CAD and the EUR this week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Apr 05, 2022 31852 27370 -41758 -37513 -1569 -103829 6923 -12393 Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 663589 210914 183544 27370 1174 10871 4875 5996 Bullish Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish         Total change -33093 -3281 28655 -31936     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of large speculators reached 27 370 contracts last week and they were up by 5 996 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 10,871 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,875 contracts. These data indicates a bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 1,174 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The euro keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it again reached a strong support in the area around 1.0850. Long-term resistance: 1.0950 – 1.0980.  The next resistance is in the zone 1.1160 – 1.1180. Support: 1.080-1.0850   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 238266 35873 77631 -41758 13901 5249 6937 -1688 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish         Total change 49823 -6376 29573 -35949     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached 41,758 contracts and thez were down by 1,688 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,249 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,937 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been their further decline. Open interest rose by 13,901 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it is therefore strong. Long-term resistance: 1.3050 – 1.3070. The next resistance is in the zone 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000. The next support is near 1.2900   The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 148898 34871 72384 -37513 5891 911 -11182 12093 Weak bearish Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish         Total change -43681 23318 -23249 46567     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,513 contracts, growing by 12,093 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 911 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,182 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there was an increase in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 5,891 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar formed a strong bearish pin bar last week. This could indicate further weakening of the AUD/USD pair. However, the pair is in a support area, so to speculate in the short direction it is necessary to wait for the pair to break this support and for a valid retest of the break. Long-term resistance: 0.7580-0.7660                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 35788 15428 16997 -1569 907 -76 626 -702 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish         Total change -20848 -1915 -11897 9982     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 1 569 contracts, falling by 702 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 76 contracts and an increase in short positions by 626 contracts. This data suggests that bearish sentiment has set in in the New Zealand dollar over the past week, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative and they continue to fall Open interest rose by 907 contracts last week.  It means that the downward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week was supported by a volume and therefore this price action was strong. Long-term resistance: 0.6860 – 0.6880. The next resistance is near 0.6980 – 0.7030 Long-term support: 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Movie Review: Belle

Movie Review: Belle

David Merkel David Merkel 24.03.2022 04:59
I don’t watch movies much. Usually I think they are a waste of time. Recently I watched the movie Belle with my wife, and we both enjoyed it. This was the first film we had watched in a theater together in 35+ years. Anyway, here is my review of the movie Belle. ========================== There are a number of reasons why the reviews for Belle are all over the map.  I saw both the Japanese version with English subtitles on a small screen, and the English dub at a theater.  I read a lot of manga and manhua, and occasionally I watch anime, but less so because it eats up too much time. The reason I think the reviews vary so much relates to personality differences and willingness to think deeply.  If you ever look at comment threads on manga sites, you will run into a lot of shallow people who only can appreciate action-packed manga, don’t understand what the victory conditions are for the main character, and cannot wrap their minds around people who don’t act the way they would act. The plot of Belle revolves around two people, Suzu (Belle) and Kei (The Dragon), who have been hurt so badly in their lives that they have cut off as many people as they possibly can in order to avoid future hurt.  Now, is this an attractive pair to build a movie around? No, and that is the design of the movie, to make you sense the alienation.  Another aspect of the alienation is the characterization of rural Japan, where transportation options are becoming scarcer; travel to school is arduous for Suzu.  The movie implicitly asks a bunch of questions.  Is what you are assuming true or not?  Suzu assumes that the beautiful and talented girl Luka is happy, popular, and stuck-up.  Suzu assumes her Dad doesn’t care, and also Shinobu, whom she wishes would be her boyfriend.  She assumes that Luka likes Shinobu. She assumes that people would not like Belle if she openly revealed who she was.  Yet later in the movie she realizes that all of those assumptions are wrong. The most fundamental question of the movie is “Who are you?” Who is Belle? Who is the Dragon?  Everyone wants to know who they are in the real world.  So, does the metaverse U create a new you?  Though Suzu gets fame, and Kei gets infamy via U, if anything, U intensifies their problems, which need to be solved in real life. U seems to work at the beginning, but it doesn’t truly pay off. One theme for both Suzu and Kei is that their mothers died.  Suzu’s mother died rescuing an unknown girl from drowning, saying, “I have to go or she’ll die,” and then drowns after saving the girl. There is a parallel near the end of the movie, where Suzu knows that she has to find Kei or he might die, and saves him at the risk of her own life. She gets hurt in the process and does not die.  This is a story of becoming brave enough to love. The Dragon saves Belle in U.  Suzu saves Kei in the real world. The final theme is singing.  When Belle sings in U it affects people, as many have felt loss and rejection.  This is a change for Suzu, who loved to sing with her mother, but could not sing after her mother died. A turning point of the movie comes when Shinobu says to her when she wants to rescue Kei, “How can you get through to them if you are not yourself?” She then realizes that she needs to sing inside U not as the beautiful Belle, but as ordinary Suzu.  And after that she once again can happily sing on her own wherever she is. It is well-known that when the Japanese version of Belle (w/English subtitles) premiered at Cannes, it received a 14-minute standing ovation, which is rare.  If the international film community thought it was that good, it probably is stupendous.  To that end, ignore the shallow comments of those that did not understand the movie.
The Rules, Part LXXII

The Rules, Part LXXII

David Merkel David Merkel 26.03.2022 05:21
Picture Credit: Kailash Gyawali || There are times when despair is rational “There are two hard things in trading — buying higher, and selling lower.” Currently I am selling out my position in an illiquid stock. I am patient, but I can tell that my selling is having an impact on the market. Back when I was a corporate bond manager, I quickly learned that I had to scale in and out of positions. Even for the most commonly traded bonds, the market isn’t that liquid. While not lying to the brokers, learning to disguise your intentions, or at least frame them properly took some effort. One method I commonly used worked like this: “We need some cash. If you have someone wanting to buy $2-5 million, we will offer these at the 10-year Treasury + 150 basis points, $6-10 million T10 + 140 bps, and if they want to buy the whole wad (say 20-30 million), T10 + 125 basis points. Prices would ascend with size in selling. Prices would descend with size in buying, particularly for troubled bonds that we liked. Usually the brokers appreciated the supply or demand curves that I gave them. Frequently I ended up selling the “the wad,” which we were usually selling because our credit analyst had a reason. But life is not always so happy. Sometimes you have an asset that either you or the organization has concluded is a dud. Many people think it is a dud. How do you sell it? Should you sell it? There are options: you could hold an auction, but I will tell you if you do that, play it straight. Your reputation is worth far more than if the auction succeeds or not. You can set a reservation price but if the auction doesn’t sell, you will lose some face. Or you can test the market, selling in onesies an twosies ($1-2 million) seeing if there is any demand, and expand from there if you can. What I tended to do was go to my most trusted broker on a given bond and say, “I don’t have to sell this, but we need cash. Could you sound out those who own the bonds and see what they might like to buy a few million?” If we get an interested party, we can sound them out on buying more a an attractive price. But life can be worse, imagine trying to sell the bonds of Enron post default. Yes, I had to do that. And I had to sell them at lower and lower prices. (Kind of like the time I got trapped with a wad of Disney 30-year bonds.) And there is the opposite. You want to have a position in an attractive company, and you can’t get them at any reasonable price. You could give up. You could “do half.” Or you could chase it and get the full position, only to regret it. If you invest with an eye toward valuations, this will always be a challenge. All that said, if you focus on quality, these issues probably won’t hurt you as much. In any case, do what must be done. If something must be bought, buy it as cheaply as possible. If something must be sold, sell it as dearly as you can. Hide your intentions, while offering deals. In doing so, you may very well realize the most value.
When I was a Boy… (2)

When I was a Boy… (2)

David Merkel David Merkel 05.04.2022 04:51
Photo Credit: House Photography || I always read a lot when I was young This a is follow-up to When I was a Boy… which I wrote ~5 1/2 years ago. It is also a response to an article posted by Jason Zweig, who I have talked with once or twice, and emailed a little more than that. In that article, he asks the question: How did you learn how to invest? Did you take a class, play a stock-market game in school, have a friend or family member as a mentor?How Should Kids Learn to Invest? If you read the original article, you would know that my original start was from two gifts of stock that male relatives in my extended family gave me in the 1960s. They picked two high-fliers — Litton Industries and Magnavox. Bought and held, by the mid-1970s both generated >80% losses when they were bought by another company. Did I ever play the stock market game in school? Yes, once when I was in seventh grade (early 1973). Our school decided to play around and do an intersession between the two semesters. It was a two week course called “Bulls and Bears. How this Little Piggy Went to Market.” My favorite science teacher was teaching it. I realized that the game was utterly short-term and so I put all of my play money into AT&T warrants, knowing that if AT&T stock rose, the warrants would zoom up. Was I a smart kid, or what? What. Well, AT&T when nowhere for those two weeks, and the same for the warrants. They were at the same price at the contest end, thus losing the commissions on both sides, and this was when commissions were high, prior to deregulation. The three main things that taught me about investing were watching Wall Street Week with my Mom, borrowing books on investing at the Brookfield library, and reading the Value Line subscription that she purchased. I probably read 10 books on investing before I was 18. Louis Rukeyser was an affable guide to the markets, including the elves, the guests, etc. (As an aside, Frank A. Cappiello, Jr. was a founding member of the Baltimore Security Analysts Society, and a frequent guest on his show. After all, where is Owings Mills, Maryland?) With Value Line, I began to understand how corporations worked. The one-page descriptions of companies were just big enough to give me a good idea of what was going on, while not over-taxing a kid 12-21 years old. I remember as a student at Johns Hopkins earning 16% on my money market fund in my freshman year.  I was only at Hopkins for three years 1979-1982, but those were tough years, particularly in the Midwest “Rust Belt.”  My father’s business earned little, but my Mom’s investing paid off.  Though not “working” she was making more off the family portfolio than my Dad was earning off his business.  As it was, to help my family then, I paid the last semester of tuition.  (My Mom later paid me back for that.)  I came back home in 1982 with $5 in my pocket.  Then I learned that I overdrew my bank account, costing me $10. Oh, one more thing the clever and distinguished Carl Christ, who signed my Master’s Thesis at Hopkins, taught a class on investing in my junior year. I learned a lot, but the main thing I remember was writing a research report on a firm that made specialty paper — James River. My mother had owned it for a long time, but had sold her stake at an opportune time. When I wrote the report, she did not own it, and the stock had fallen from where she sold it. Dr. Christ had never heard of James River, an was fascinated at what was at that time a midcap firm in a underfollowed industry. I got an “A.” When I showed the report to my Mom, she bought it again, and made money of it. Also, in my senior year, I wrote my thesis on stock splits. As I said there: This brings me to my conclusion: stock splits are a momentum effect, but it is larger when companies are still have a cheap valuation. Perhaps splits have no effect on stock performance — it is all momentum and valuation. To me, that is the most likely conclusion, and my thesis anticipated quantitative money management by 10+ years.On Stock Splits In the summer of 1982, I remember sitting down with Value Line in my family’s living room (quiet place, no TV) and selecting a paper portfolio of 40-50 stocks. I went through all 1700 stocks. I recorded the prices in the Milwaukee Journal, and then went to Grad School at UC-Davis. Over the next year the stocks in my “portfolio” appreciated at double the rate of the market. At that time, I was a TA for a Corporate Financial Management class. I showed it to the professor, and he said, “Oh, you have a beta of two.” I said, “No, this portfolio has stocks that are not as risky as the market. This is alpha, not beta.” Several years later, I participated in the Value Line Investing Contest. I placed in the top 1%, but not good enough to win. When my dissertation committee dissolved, I was forced to abandon my Ph. D. I took three actuarial exams on the fly in early 1986 and passed. I had an informational interview at Pacific Standard Life which sponsored the exams, and they hired me on the spot. (My boss’ secretary told me that the boss said, “No one can pass the first three exams on the first try.” Then a fellow employee told me later, “You didn’t negotiate hard enough. They would have hired you regardless.”) When I worked for Pacific Standard Life, and later AIG, I got investment-related projects, because I was the one actuary that understood investing. During this time, I was managing my own portfolio, sometimes better, sometimes worse. I bought stocks, and mutual funds investing outside the US. I had a CTA in my portfolio. I tried investing in spectrum with the FCC, but that was a bomb. I settled on small cap value investing in the mid-1990s, which was a bad era for small cap value. Still, I managed to keep pace with the S&P 500. In 2000, I had an email exchange with Kenneth Fisher (yes, the big guy of Fisher Investments). This led to he creation of my eight rules. As I wrote on portfolio rule three: Let me give you a little history of how the eight rules came to be. In 2000, I had an e-mail discussion with Kenneth Fisher. I explained to him what I had been doing with small-cap value, and how I had done well with it in the 90s. He told me to forget everything that I’ve learned, especially the CFA syllabus, and look for the things that I can do better than anyone else. We exchanged about five or so e-mails; I appreciate the time he spent on me. So I sat back and thought about what investments had worked best for me in the past. I noticed that when I got the call right on cyclical industries, the results were spectacular. I also noticed that I lost most when investing in companies that didn’t have good balance sheets, no matter how “cheap” they were in terms of valuation. I came to the conclusion that size and value/growth were not the major determinants of my investing success. Instead, industry selection played a large role in what went right and wrong with my investment decisions. So, I decided to formalize that. I would rotate industries with a value bias. But that would have other impacts on how I invested. One of those impacts is rule number three. Over the next ten years, I tore up the pavement, and would have been in the top percentile of mutual fund managers. And so I opened my own shop in 2010, to find for the next eleven years that value investing was overrated. My life is bigger than my little company. I am a happy man. I know Jesus Christ; I have eternal life. Have there been disappointments? Of course. The one main positive I can say about my investing is that I rarely have big losses on any security. This is not due to stop losses; I pay attention to balance sheets and the cyclicality of markets. Even at the age of 61, I am still learning. I am not a boy, obviously, but I am still absorbing new ideas. To all who read me, be life-long learners. I am closer to the end to my life than my beginning, but invest! Take your opportunities to learn and capitalize on them! And remember, Judgement Day is coming. Are you ready? Investments will help you for now, but will be useless in the hereafter.
CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area

CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 21.04.2022 11:50
Today we are looking at the ASX200 on the daily timeframe. Price has once again returned to a key supply area. Will we see another rally stopped, or could this be a push into new records? The ASX200 has put together three solid months after a shocker to start 2022. Price 6.81% in January before buyers got back hold of things and put over 8% back on to the current point in April. So far this week, we have seen 1% added by buyers. This takes us back to a key area of supply. From roughly 7590 to 7640, we have seen two major trend reversals once price has moved into this area. 13th of August 2021 was the first rejection, and we saw the latest on the 4th of January, which led to a 9% pullback. Buyers once again have a robust medium-term uptrend in play that got going in March. Earlier this month, buyers broke out of consolidation setting up the new push back to the supply area. Will this run be different and finally break and close above 7640-7652, setting a new all-time high? The ASX has a lead on US indexes as it sits close to all-time records atm. US indexes are pushing higher despite inflation and treasury worries. Their continued momentum might be the lead that ASX buyers need to get to that next step. Australian inflation is rising as the RBA has already hinted at higher rates, but for now, that doesn’t look to be causing too much worry to the short term price. We will be watching with interest if buyers can continue to push higher or if we will see sellers flood back in once again, holding the supply area. ASX200 D1 Chart The post CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area appeared first on Eightcap.
The Developments In The Crypto Sector Made It Into The Record Books (The Guinness World Records)

(BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.04.2022 08:43
Bitcoin declined by 2.3% over the past week, ending it at around $39.5K. Ethereum lost 3.9%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 2.2% (Solana) to 10.5% (XRP). The exception was Terra (+12.9%). On Monday, the pressure on cryptocurrencies continued, taking another 1.3% off bitcoin to 38.9k, sending it to test March lows. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.2% to 41.2% over the same period. Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, changed little over the week, remaining at 1.8 trillion, as a wave of buying in the first half of the week turned into a strong sell-off in the second. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.2% to 41.2% over the same period. Read next (by FXPro): What Moves Forex Rates? Strong US Dollar Affects British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And CNH | FXMAG.COM Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose from 24 to 27 and returned to its starting point during the week. By Monday, the index had lost another point to 23, remaining in the extreme fear territory. Bitcoin has declined for the third consecutive week, along with stock indices. BTC tried to rise, renewing its highs in a week and a half, around $43,000. Thursday and Friday saw a sharp pullback along with the stock market, and bitcoin fell below the circular $40,000 level. Changpeng Zhao, the Binance's chief executive, said the adoption of cryptocurrencies would rise as geopolitical tensions escalate and the use of the dollar as a sanctions tool grows. He believes the US will lose out to the rest of the world if it continues to suppress bitcoin. Read next (by FXPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM A group of US congressmen have spoken out against mining cryptocurrencies using the environmentally damaging Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus algorithm. They said that cryptocurrencies of particular concern are BTC, ETH, XMR and ZEC. The EU has discussed banning BTC trading because of its energy and environmental impact. Bitcoin's energy consumption continues to increase and is attracting the attention of environmental organisations and regulators.
CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 28.04.2022 04:55
Looking at the US30 on the 8H we can see some signs that counter-rally is stalling. Price remains range-bound between 33,485 and 33,170. With inflation white-hot and the talk of recession and possible heavy rate hikes, could this be a pause before we see a new push lower by sellers? All three major US indices are showing similar patterns, but the US30 definitely looks the weaker of the three for now. After yesterday’s choppy end to the session that saw an 8H range of 602 points, price continues to sit midway at the moment with little direction. Price sits in a fast downtrend with one lower high, but this week buyers have started to put up some defence with the start of a consolidation starting to form between support and res 1. This may also be a pause before sellers try to get going again. Res 2 is another point of resistance holding for sellers currently and if we are to start thinking buyer recovery we would like to see both points beaten with a new higher low to show demand. If sellers are able to get the show back on track we would be looking for a break of support to show that they have beaten buyers for now. The market looks to be waiting on something to give it direction and that might just come later this week with US advanced GDP due at 8:30 EST today and US core PCE price index which is a primary inflation measure for the FED. With the current climate around inflation, this could be key data. It’s due out Friday at 8:30 EST. US30 8H Chart The post CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback appeared first on Eightcap.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Ethereum Price (ETH/USD) – Building Block!

Richard Nasr Richard Nasr 28.04.2022 11:53
The picture is self-explanatory ETH is still technically overall bullish trading inside the brown channel. and it is currently sitting around the blue floor 3000 and lower brown trendline, so we will be expecting a bullish reversal from here. (of course we need to zoom in to lower timeframes and look for buy setups to confirm the shift in momentum Unless the blue floor / support is broken downward, then our green zone 2500 would be the next floor and so on... Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? Which floor is more likely to hold? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04
The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  
Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.05.2022 07:19
Well, what can we say about this last week? It was a horrific week on the crypto boards, with most coins plunging. The selling got going last weekend and peaked with a real market crash on Thursday. 200 billion of value was wiped off just on Thursday’s session alone. Bitcoin hit 25,338 USD at its lowest point on Thursday, and Ethereum touched $1702, setting new year lows. The rout wasn’t just about those two. The top 25 index coin index we quote cashed by 45.18% to its low on Thursday. Why did this happen? As the week went on, a few stories started to emerge. UST was the main influence, and it had a catastrophic effect on Terra Luna, which we will get to later. UST is a stable coin; these coins are meant to be pegged in value to the USD and, in theory, should be at the 1:1 value. UST is a little different as it’s an algorithmic stable coin under-pinned by code rather than cash held in reserve. This is where the trouble began. As UST fell under $1 the cracks opened and fear set in. Selling accelerated, and its value slipped down to .41 cents. This had disastrous consequences for its sister currency Terra Luna which has a floating price and was designed to absorb UST price shocks. Terra crashed on UST failure to hold value and ended Thursday’s session under 1 US cent. We’re talking at 99% plunge! This was catastrophic for traders and investors that owned LUNA as many exchanges slowed to craw trying to deal with the mass of sell orders hitting the exchanges. Pressure on bitcoin, the Luna Foundation owned a mass of bitcoin used to shore up terra in times of crisis. Talk suggested large amounts had been sold to deal with the terra issue and this compounded/added to the panic selling that session. The story continues, tether the world’s largest stable coin, also dipped below $1 US, sending a shock through the markets of a contagion. This added to the panic. It’s difficult to tell what may happen next, but from watching the events this week, it’s important you remain vigilant as this volatility continues. I’m not an industry expert, but from watching the events this week, it’s something that came to my mind.This week’s focus is a sad one, but we can’t skip over Terra Luna. I’m not going to say much more on it as the meat is above. It’s a terrible event as, yes, some might think it’s cool to see markets destroyed, but there’s a personal loss in there as many investors believed in terra and now may face very unfortunate situations. The post Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Market Crash: Can (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Reach Less Than $10K!? Dogecoin (DOGE) Hasn't Fluctuated Much! ETH Has Decreased By 1.2% | FxPro

Crypto Market Crash: Can (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Reach Less Than $10K!? Dogecoin (DOGE) Hasn't Fluctuated Much! ETH Has Decreased By 1.2% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.05.2022 08:37
Bitcoin has been hovering around the 30K mark for a second day, forcing the rest of the crypto market to balance declines and gains. Ethereum has lost 1.2% in 24 hours but remains near 2,000. Altcoins from the top ten are mostly declining, losing between 0.7% (DogeCoin) and 3.8% (Polkadot). Tron is gaining 1.7% but has been little changed since the end of last week. Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined 1.1% overnight to $1.29 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 44.3%. Bitcoin has stalled at the psychologically significant 30K level The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 4 points to 12 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. The index’s recovery from lows since 2019 is due to a waning selloff but not a market reversal to growth. Bitcoin has stalled at the psychologically significant 30K level and has also lost the momentum of the rebound at the 76.4% Fibonacci line from the downward move from late March to last Thursday’s lows. This is a typical shallow counter-trend correction. The inability of the market to develop the offensive from the current levels would raise the question that the final target for the downtrend would be the 161.8% area of that move, which is near $11.3K. Such a setback would cancel out all upside momentum from October 2020. So far, this scenario looks exceptionally pessimistic and needs to converge the disappointment of crypto-neophytes on top of an actual collapse of the global economy and stock market. Such a dip would leave Bitcoin’s price at only 16% of its peak, which has happened several times in its history. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM However, a significant drop below previous cyclical highs ($20K) would be unusual, although Bitcoin was previously repurchased on similar drawdowns. Perhaps a more cautious scenario would be a dip into the $20-23K area to close the gap at the end of 2020 or a return to the 2017 highs. The realist-optimistic scenario points to the possibility of cautious buying by long-term investors from current levels. Following TerraUSD, another stable coin - DEI - lost its peg to the US dollar However, it does not suggest a new wave of explosive growth, as financial conditions and a return to the area at the start of 2021 are disappointing for those investors who have been buying cryptocurrencies as a way to make a quick buck. Moreover, inflation has weaned 10% off the dollar’s purchasing power over this period. Among the news that caught our eye were: According to CoinShares, institutional investors invested $274 million in crypto funds last week, a record since the start of the year. Following TerraUSD, another stable coin - DEI - lost its peg to the US dollar. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the stable coin market needs strict regulation. Because of the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, investors need more protection, or they could lose confidence in the markets, SEC chief Gary Gensler said. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The Portuguese authorities are considering introducing a tax on income earned from investments in digital assets. Dogecoin co-founder Billy Marcus called 95% of crypto-assets “trash” and suggested that 70% of investors don’t even understand the fundamentals of the crypto market.
Bitcoin (BTC) is now better than the stock market but still in decline. Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By Over 4%, So Does Cardano (ADA) | FxPro

Bitcoin (BTC) is now better than the stock market but still in decline. Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By Over 4%, So Does Cardano (ADA) | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.05.2022 15:26
On Wednesday, Bitcoin was down 3%, ending the day around $29,200, remaining near that mark on Thursday morning. Ethereum lost 4.3%. Other altcoins in the top 10 fell from 1.8% (BNB) to 9.8% (Cardano). The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 13 by Thursday and remains in ‘extreme fear’ territory The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 3.6% overnight to $1.24 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.4% to 44.7%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 13 by Thursday and remains in ‘extreme fear’ territory. Bitcoin resumed its decline on Wednesday amid a sharp weakening of US stock indices, which fell even more than BTC. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost more than 4% on Wednesday. The impressive oversold strength accumulated by the crypto market after it collapsed 40% from late March levels (versus 16% for the S&P500) temporarily limits the declining scale. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Nevertheless, the overall negative market sentiment has prevented the bulls from turning out in full force. So far, it isn’t easy to see reliable signs of oversold or rebound formation. We should be prepared for the cryptocurrency market to test support at last week’s lows again in the near term. We consider the area near 20K the final target for a potential selloff, which corresponds to Bitcoin’s long-term support line. Billionaire Bill Ackman said one of the main reasons for Terra’s collapse was a pyramid scheme of business Among the news that caught our eye were: Former US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke called Bitcoin a harmful currency. He lashed out at cryptocurrencies, calling them “a great tool for extortionists”. Binance lost $1.6 billion due to the collapse of Terra tokens on the exchange’s balance sheet. Billionaire Bill Ackman said one of the main reasons for Terra’s collapse was a pyramid scheme of business. Investors were promised a 20% yield backed by a token whose value was determined by demand from new investors. Microsoft has warned crypto investors of an increase in the activity of a new type of malware called Cryware South Korea’s Financial Services Commission, amid tensions in the Stablecoin market, is proposing to register cryptocurrencies based on their level of risk to investors. Microsoft has warned crypto investors of an increase in the activity of a new type of malware called Cryware, which allows the theft of assets from hot cryptocurrency wallets. Birgit Rodolph, executive director of the German BaFin, called for universal regulation of the DeFi industry across the EU. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Crypto News: Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) is range-bound. Will we see a break today? | 8cap

Crypto News: Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) is range-bound. Will we see a break today? | 8cap

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 04:05
Hi traders, today we’re seeing a similar pattern across several coins. After yesterday’s failed lower break attempt, ranges have developed. We’re seeing this pattern on a few, BTC, BNB, ETH, SOL, ADA, and XRP. We’ve zeroed in on Bitcoin as on the 4-hour chart. The range is quite symmetrical. We saw 29K come in yesterday as a demand point, and for now, price continues to hold above. The range can be broken down into inside action and overall action. On the side, we are looking at two possible directions. One, we see price maintain the pattern and move back to the bottom of the range. Two buyers regain momentum as we see a test or break of the range roof. If number two occurs, that will line up with the overall action idea of a new breakout due to steady demand seen yesterday rejecting seller attempts to break lower. We can also see a trend break on the four-hour chart and a fast trend break on the daily. If sellers can not only move back to the range base but break through it, we would look at the 27,600 area to possible offer buyer resistance If buyers clear the range, we could see resistance develop from 32,200. On the other side, if sellers can not only move back to the range base but break through it, we would look at the 27,600 area to possible offer buyer resistance. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM It will be interesting to see which side wins this battle. Hoping all of our readers have a wonderful weekend. Bitcoin 4H Chart The post Crypto News: Bitcoin is range-bound. Will we see a break today? appeared first on Eightcap.
Changing correlation of Bitcoin and US stocks. Brazil: Lower house of Congress approved crypto regulation bill

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Entrenched At $30K, Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP) Have Gained! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.05.2022 11:17
Bitcoin fluctuates around $30K and has crossed that line daily in one way or another over the past 12 days. A 3.5% increase in the day’s results on Thursday turned into another pullback on Friday morning. Ethereum has strengthened by 3.5% in the past 24 hours, finding itself pegged at $2000. By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is unchanged at 13 points (“extreme fear”) Other altcoins in the top 10 gained between 0.4% (Solana) and 5.5% (XRP). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinGecko, rose 3.1% overnight to $1.28 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1% to 44.8%. By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is unchanged at 13 points (“extreme fear”). Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said his company would buy bitcoin at any price until it reached a million dollars Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market’s protracted tug-of-war promises to resolve with a strong move in one direction. However, there is hope for both bulls and bears. The latter has a minor advantage, as we saw this area touch down from above in January and June-July 2021. But now, all the fighting is concentrated below. Among the crypto news that caught our eye: MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said his company would buy bitcoin at any price until it reached a million dollars. Bitcoin’s drop below $30,000 last week came after a large volume of the cryptocurrency entered exchanges. According to IntoTheBlock, traders have sent around 40,000 BTC to exchanges since May 11. According to an audit report by accounting firm MHA Cayman, USDT stable coin issuer Tether Holdings Limited reduced its reserves in the commercial papers by 17%, improving the quality of its funds. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM The Ethereum development team said it would migrate the Ropsten test network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm on June 8 2022. According to the legislation, SEC chief Gary Gensler has warned that the regulator is ready to take new measures against unregistered cryptocurrency companies. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) believes that amid a rise in cryptocurrency crime, the watchdog must strengthen regulation of digital assets to crack down on fraud and manipulation. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 15:34
Let’s just say things have been a lot more settled this week than last week’s bloodbath. The top 10 and 25 indexes remain positive on Friday. But it’s very little pulled back compared to the damage done over the last 6-weeks. A few headlines that caught our attention this week, Ripple partnered with a Lithuanian firm for cross-border payments. Attention remains on Ethereum as it prepares to merge and just hangs on to the 2000 USD level. Tether is said to be partially backed by non-US government bonds. Is this meant to give us confidence after the stable coins fiasco last week? Talk emerging around debt defaults by El Salvador. The country famously made Bitcoin legal tender and was reported to have bought large parcels on the coin. The pressure continued this week as BTC fell below 29K. Price has moved back above 30K, but pressure remains on the country after this move. Ranges are the topic of a lot of the top ten at this point in the week. We discussed this in detail in our Bitcoin report earlier today, and it’s not really a surprise based on last week’s trade. We want to point out the weekly demand areas and support areas we are seeing holding on several coins. Definitely take a look at some of the top 10 on their weekly charts to see the areas and levels we have brought up. Continuing on from this, we want to show an example of this. As you can see below, Bitcoin weekly has held for now from the 28,600 – 30,000 area. Last week’s plunge failed to break this level, and it remains key weekly support for now. While this level remains in play, we will look for buyers to continue to consolidate.   The post Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery appeared first on Eightcap.
Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is In Tight Consolidation! Which Direction Will It Strike? | Geco.one

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is In Tight Consolidation! Which Direction Will It Strike? | Geco.one

Geco One Geco One 23.05.2022 14:45
Bitcoin fell between 5-12 May 2022 by over $13,000, i.e. over 33%. It increased the range of the ongoing from 28 March 2022 depreciation to over $21,000, i.e. 44%. In turn, counting from the peaks of November 2021, BTC decreased by over $42,000, i.e. 61%. Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Such a significant sale caused the exchange of the oldest virtual currencies to drop from $69,000 to below $27,000, which was the lowest level since December 2020. It is noteworthy that this trend did not stop around the critical level of support of $29,000, where various types of demand reactions have occurred many times in the past. It was no different now. This time, however, the rebound turned out to be extremely modest, and as a result, Bitcoin found itself in a horizontal trend. Considering that the consolidations are corrective formations, statistically, more often, the market will push out of this type of system in the direction consistent with the earlier move. This particular case increases the risk of a potential bottom breakout, which could signal a potential for further declines to the $24,000 region or even below $20,000. This scenario may also be supported by the fact that the upper limit of this system coincides with the measurement of 38.2% Fibonacci correction from an earlier downward impulse. Ethereum Price (ETH/USD)  The current situation on the Ethereum quotes is also identical. The price of this cryptocurrency fell between 3 April and 12 May this year by 52%, dropping to the Tech Support area of $1,750, the lowest level since July 2021. However, taking into account that the demand response that appeared around this support was much more modest than the rebound observed in this area already in May, June and July 2021, one can assume that in the end, it will turn out to be only a correction, after which the ETH rate will return to around $1,750. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM A permanent drop below this price level could open the door for further declines to $1,400. There is another significant support around which we could expect a greater demand response. It is worth mentioning here, however, that although the consolidations are corrective formations, there is no rule determining when the market should break out of the system. This fact means that, although the statistics favour further declines before they happen, the ETH exchange rate may remain in the range of $1,900 to $2,150 for some time. (XRP) Ripple Price Looking at the XRP quotes, we can see that the price of this cryptocurrency fell between 28 March and 12 May this year by over 63%. This sell-off led to the breach of several important support zones and did not stop until around $0.36, where on 12 May this year, there was a demand response. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM However, the subsequent rebound did not last too long. As a result, the XRP price has remained in the horizontal trend for several years. It assumes a return to the vicinity of $0.36 seems more likely. If, however, this support was permanently defeated, then the quotations of this cryptocurrency could even move towards $0.20. Binance Coin (BNB) The current situation on Binance Coin's quotes is also very interesting. The price of this cryptocurrency fell between 7 November 2021 and 12 May 2022 by over 67%. This sale only stopped around $260 technical support - on Thursday, 12 May this year, there was a demand response. Due to the rebound that has continued since then, the BNB price has risen by more than 51%, thus returning to the area of ​​previously defeated support (now resistance) of $330. If a larger supply relationship is around this level, signalling its potential rejection, the BNB price could return to around $260 or even drop further to the $200 region. It’s finally time to get down to business. Start serious trading with Geco.one - top 20 cryptocurrencies, 1:100 leverage, staking, low fees, intuitive design, no KYC. Trading on derivatives has never been easier. Join us https://app.geco.one Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Bitcoin Is Showing The Potential For The Further Downside Rotation

Declining Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD)!? Ether Price (ETH/USD) Has Increased, AVAX Gone Down. Be ready for (BTC) Bitcoin to end consolidation with a drop | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.05.2022 09:00
Bitcoin’s fluctuations continue to shrink, meaning the spring is being compressed further. The lower bound of the trading range has moved to $29K, from where the BTCUSD has received support since the start of active trading in New York. The upper bound of the formed triangle has moved to $30.5K against current prices at $30.0K, reflecting a 1.8% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum has added 0.3% in the past 24 hours, with other altcoins in the top 10 from a 2.9% decline (Avalanche) to a 1.0% rise (BNB), but all faring worse than the crypto flagship. Total coin capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.1% to $1.28 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index up 0.4% to 44.7%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point to 11 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. The bitcoin price is in consolidation mode, equally dangerous for both bulls and bears. Both gain liquidity over time and get used to the current prices. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM On the market cycle side, the chances are higher than the current consolidation will culminate in a breakdown of the lower boundary and liquidation of stop orders, reinforcing the initial downside momentum. Behind the pessimistic outlook is a tightening of monetary policy with slowing economic growth, which puts retail investors in the mode of withdrawing capital from cryptocurrency in favour of consumption. It does not help that the expectations of getting rich fast through cryptocurrencies are not paying off, as bitcoin is worth as much now as it was in early 2021. The ECB warned that the high correlation between cryptocurrency and stock markets... Investing in the industry is becoming more professional, moving beyond naïve attempts to buy and hold. According to CoinShares, investors are withdrawing money from bitcoin and investing in blockchains that support smart contracts, such as Cardano and Polkadot. Net capital outflows from crypto funds last week amounted to $141m. The ECB warned that the high correlation between cryptocurrency and stock markets is usually seen in times of dire economic conditions and will no longer allow the diversification of investment portfolios with digital assets. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 24.05.2022 22:00
Welcome trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Join him this coming Monday, as he starts the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then shares his perspective on potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 1st June 2022! Would like you to receive more support and guidance around your trading activity? Then Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community this coming Wednesday at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the weeks earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight about the moves and progression that have been made and shares his beliefs in the market as we approach the weekend. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be a live Q&A for you to ask all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions and get the answers needed to unlock the secrets to trading CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So join the Eightcap Trade Zone this week as we explore the markets together, and please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto: Extreme Fear!? Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is Stable, But Ether’s (ETH) Performance Reflects The Pressure. What About Ripple And Stellar? | FxPro

Crypto: Extreme Fear!? Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is Stable, But Ether’s (ETH) Performance Reflects The Pressure. What About Ripple And Stellar? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.05.2022 09:34
Bitcoin ignored the positive dynamics of US stock indices on Wednesday, further reducing the amplitude of its fluctuations. The first cryptocurrency has been moving in a $29.5-30.0K range since the start of active trading in New York. We caution that this reduction in volatility risks turning into an explosion in the near term, potentially setting off momentum for a few days or weeks. BTC Price A formal break of consolidation would be considered a consolidation beyond the previous local extremes, which are located at $30.2K and $29.3K. Going beyond those limits in a sharp move promises to trigger a wave of liquidation of positions that the bulls and bears have brought closer to the current price due to low volatility and bored speculators in recent days. Outside of Bitcoin, the situation is more worrying. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, has fallen 1.6% in the last 24 hours to $1.25 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index is 0.4 points to 45.1%. Ether Price (ETH/USD) Ethereum lost 3%, dropping to 1915, the lower end of a steady trading range for the past two weeks. The daily candlestick chart clearly shows a sequence of increasingly lower local highs. This dynamic is a sure sign of a sustained sell-off in crypto, temporarily covered by Bitcoin’s stability. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Bitcoin’s stability against such an external backdrop may be nothing more than a temporary consolidation of capital in the most liquid cryptocurrency and is supported by improved sentiment in stocks. Crypto Fear And Greed Index The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 12 by Thursday and remains in “extreme fear”. Ripple lawyer Stuart Alderoty criticised the stance of US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and the SEC’s desire to seize administrative control of the cryptocurrency market. Stellar will provide its technology to the Central Bank of Brazil to develop the digital currency. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Bitcoin Price Reaching $20K Is Still Possible, Even If The Crypto Market Crash Is Believed To Be Over | Geco.one

Bitcoin Price Reaching $20K Is Still Possible, Even If The Crypto Market Crash Is Believed To Be Over | Geco.one

Geco One Geco One 30.05.2022 14:22
After a fall of more than $13,000 that we saw between 5 and 12 May, Bitcoin stopped in the area of ​​$28,500 technical support. There have been many different kinds of demand reactions in this area. It was no different now. Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) This time, however, this rebound turned out to be highly modest; as a result, Bitcoin has been moving in a horizontal trend for three weeks. The rebound from the lower bound of this formation observed last weekend may drive an increase towards its upper limit, i.e. resistance of $31,500. However, it seems highly probable that the increases observed since Saturday will not lead to a permanent change in the market attitude and the return of BTC to the path of long-term gains. For this to happen, the quotations of the oldest virtual currencies would have to break above $31,500. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Price Of Bitcoin Reaching $20K!? Considering that consolidations are corrective formations and, statistically, more often, the market breaks out of these systems in the direction consistent with the previous move, there is a high probability that there will be a more significant supply response in the area of this resistance. It could signal a potential for further declines in the region of $28,500, even further toward $24,000, or even below $20,000. This scenario supports the fact that the upper limit of this system coincides with the measurement of 38.2% Fibonacci retracements from an earlier downward impulse. This prediction can change if Bitcoin breaks above the technical resistance of $31,500. Then we could expect a continuation of increases towards $34,500, or further to $37,000. Ether Price (ETH/USD) Looking at the Ethereum quotes, we notice that, in line with our last week's projection, the cryptocurrency's rate in the second half of last week broke below the technical support of $1,900 and slipped as much as $1,730. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM It is where the demand reaction reappeared last weekend. As the new week starts, it has led to a re-test of a previously defeated support (now resistance) of $1,900. The immediate future of ETH will now depend on what happens around the level currently being tested. Its permanent defeat, i.e. a break above $1,900, could open the way to further increases towards $2,150 or further towards $2,350. However, the emergence of a more significant supply response at this point, signalling a potential rejection of the resistance currently tested, could, in turn, indicate a potential for a further decline to $1730 or even further toward $1400. Polygon (MATIC) Looking at the MATIC quotations, we can see its price has been in the horizontal trend for almost three weeks between the technical support of $0.57 and the resistance of the $0.75. If the increases observed since last Saturday will continue, the MATIC quotations could return to $0.75. However, considering that this resistance coincides with the measurement of 38.2% Fibonacci retracements, it seems highly probable that more supply pressure will reappear in its vicinity. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM It is also worth remembering that consolidations are corrective patterns, which in this particular case increases the probability that the market will try to break out of this pattern with the bottom and further decline even towards $0.45. It’s finally time to get down to business. Start serious trading with Geco.one - top 20 cryptocurrencies, 1:100 leverage, staking, low fees, intuitive design, no KYC. Trading on derivatives has never been easier. Join us https://app.geco.one
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.06.2022 01:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.06.2022 09:12
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios? Why rather click on an ad from a brokerage firm that states that 70% of their clients' accounts are loss-making than an ad from a broker that does not disclose this statistic at all? Come with us to delve into the ins and outs of broker licensing and learn what protections you are legally entitled to as a client. Broker's licence The operation of a brokerage company involves many minor acts anchored in legislation. From the operation of the broker as a firm with employees; arranging the opening of client accounts to handling client deposits and managing the online platform through which clients trade. For all of this, a broker needs a license. While this can be issued by almost any state authority, licences of some states are more desirable than that of others. And that is due to variety of reasons. Licenses issued in so-called offshore states allow brokers to provide their clients with very attractive trading conditions. For example, the financial leverage that allows a client to multiply his or her trading position and with it also potential earnings (as well as losses) can often go as high as 1:1000 for offshore licenses. However, when it comes to client protection, offshore licenses fall somewhat short. Client protection takes many forms and one of them is the wording of the mentioned disclaimer. Thus, if you see a disclaimer below the image of an advertisement that does not state the percentage of loss but only somewhat vaguely warns of the potential risk, it is very likely that the broker to whom the advertisement belongs has an offshore license. Image: Purple Trading banner ad (see disclaimer below the button) What is a disclaimer The short phrase "XY% of client accounts lose money" and its other small permutations, which you can see for example under our online advertisements, are part of the so-called disclaimer. The disclaimer takes many forms, from a single sentence under a banner ad on Facebook to a multi-paragraph colossus in the footer of the broker's website. The purpose of the disclaimer is simple - to highlight, to those interested in trading on financial markets, the potential risks of this activity and to disclaim broker’s responsibility for their client’s eventual failure. However, the overall message of the disclaimer might be written differently. Because sometimes we see loss percentages under the advertisement of Broker A, while Broker B's disclaimer merely tells us that trading is risky. No percentage, nothing more. Image: Sample of a shorter disclaimer on the broker's page Offshore vs EU license The European Union's legal environment is characterized by a much stricter regulatory approach. This applies to the control of pharmaceuticals, and foodstuffs, but also, for example, to the control of brokerage companies. This sector is dealt with by ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), to which the regulators of all countries within the EU have to answer (including the regulator of Purple Trading, the Cypriot CySEC). It is ESMA that takes it upon itself to protect consumers (in this case, investors and retail traders in the financial markets). And it does so in all sorts of ways. The aforementioned client account loss ratios on brokers' marketing materials are one of them.   Other ESMA protections include:   Reduced financial leverage Financial leverage is the ratio of the amount of capital a trader puts into an account to the funds provided by the broker. In simple terms, it is essentially borrowed capital from the broker, which is not reflected in the balance of money in your account, but allows you to trade a greater volume of transactions than you could with your own money. More experienced traders can use leverage to increase their profits many times over. However, as well as profits, leverage also multiplies losses, so less-experienced traders should be wary of using leverage generously. That's also why ESMA capped leverage limit for retail clients at 1:30 in 2018, and higher leverage (up to 1:400) can only be provided by brokers to clients who have met a number of strict criteria to qualify as a so-called Professional Client.   Protection against negative balance A key aspect of client protection. If a client's trade that he had "leveraged" fails and the multiplied loss puts him in the red, the broker will pay the entire amount that is "in the red" from his pocket. Thus, the client can never lose more money than he has deposited in his account and consequently become a debtor. Negative balance protection is compulsory for all brokers operating in the EU. It is not compulsory for offshore brokers, which, combined with the high leverage offered there, can lead to very unfortunate situations.   Segregation of client deposits Forex and online trading, in general, has come a long way since its beginning in 2008. Especially in the early days, the online trading environment was highly unregulated and it was not uncommon for brokers to use capital from client deposits to fund their operations. More than that, there were also cases where the client’s capital was outright misused to enrich a select few. Brokers operating in the EU are obliged to secure clients’ funds in many ways. One is depositing client capital in accounts segregated from the capital brokers use to finance their operations. What if the broker fails to provide his clients with these guarantees? Brokers subject to such strict regulatory authorities as CySEC (cypriot based regulator under ESMA) must undergo regular audits. As part of these audits, the regulator monitors whether all the measures resulting from the licence granted by the regulator are being complied with. Should this not be the case, the broker is usually subject to a hefty fine and often even the suspension of its licence. This means that broker cannot really afford not to comply with the client protection principles of the EU regulatory environment. Conclusion Voluntary disclosure of client account loss rates under broker advertisements may seem odd. However, it is a positive signal that lets you know that the broker in question is highly regulated. Therefore, if you choose to trade with them, you are protected by a number of legislative regulations that the broker will not dare to violate. See which EU broker has the best disclaimer number
Concealing Volatility

Concealing Volatility

David Merkel David Merkel 05.06.2022 05:24
Photo Credit: Marco Verch Professional Photographer || With some private investments, you can’t tell what the value truly is. Third party professional help occasionally assists dishonesty Part of my career was based on concealing volatility. I sold Guaranteed Investment Contracts. I helped design and manage several different types of stable value funds. Life insurance contracts get valued at their book value, regardless of what the replacement cost of an equivalent contract would be like presently. Anytime an investment pool with no current market price has a book value above the underlying value of the investments that it holds, there is risk to those holding the investment pool. The amount of risk can be small yet significant with some types of money market funds. It can be considerably larger in certain types of pooled investments like: Various types of business partnerships, including Private REITs, Real Estate Partnerships, Private Equity, etc.Illiquid debts, such as private credit funds, and notes with limited marketability, whether structured or not.Odd mutual funds that limit withdrawals because they offer “guarantees” of a sort. That applies to Variable Annuities with riders offering guaranteed benefits, if the life insurer becomes insolvent.One-off investment liquid partnerships that are secretive and unusual, like Madoff. The underlying may be illiquid, but the accounting may be fraudulent. Or, the accounting may be fine, but the assets listed are not what is in custody. (With small funds, analyze the auditor, trustees, and custodian.)The value of a company touted by a SPAC promoter may be worth considerably less than what is illustrated.Any investment in public equity or debt pool where the positions are concentrated, and they own a high percentage of the float, or a high amount of the securities relative to the amount that gets traded in an average month. Think of Third Avenue Focused Credit, or Archegos. I have consistently encouraged readers to “look through” their pooled investments, and consider what the underlying is worth. If you only have a vague idea of what the underlying investments are, look at their public equivalents. A rising tide lifts almost all boats, and a falling tide does the opposite. There is a conceit within private equity, private credit and private real estate funds that they are less risky; there is no volatility, because we cannot produce an NAV. They have the same volatility as the publicly traded funds, but the volatility is concealed. If trouble hits the public markets 50-75% of the way through the life of a private fund, it will have difficulty selling their investments at levels anywhere near the book value previously claimed by the sponsors. With consent of the limited partners, perhaps they extend the life of the fund to try to recover value, but that also imposes an opportunity cost on holders who were expecting proceeds from the fund on schedule. Remember as well that in a scenario like 1929-1932, private funds will be wiped out with similarly leveraged private funds. Aleph Blog has consistently warned about the possibility of depression, plague, war, famine, bad monetary policy and aggressive socialism. We have gotten plague, war, and bad monetary policy. Famine in a sense may come from the Ukraine war and trade restrictions on Russia, at least for the African countries that buy from them. Thus I encourage readers to avoid private investments that promise no volatility, like the stupid ads for Equity Multiple that run on Bloomberg Radio. All investments involve some type of risk. Just because you can’t or don’t measure the risk doesn’t mean that there is no risk. Don’t listen to investment sales pitches which tell you to avoid the volatility of the public equity and debt markets, when they are taking the exact same risks in the private market, and they cannot or will not measure the risks for you, no matter how thick or thin the “disclosure” document is. There is no significant advantage in the private market over the public market. Indeed, the reverse may be true. (Yes, I meant all of the ambiguity there.) Look to the underlying, and invest accordingly. Look at fees, and try to minimize them. Prize transparency, because it reduces risk in the long run. Those who are honest are transparent.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 05.06.2022 20:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 08:55
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty.   How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them.   Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways.   Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations:   Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 11:30
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice At Purple Trading, we are expanding our offer of CFD futures symbols by 2 more. The first one is the notorious S&P 500 index, followed by the futures contract for frozen orange juice concentrate. S&P 500 as a tradable futures symbol: US500.f This is a derivative contract that allows you to speculate on the price of the S&P 500 index. US500.f is therefore a continuous CFD futures symbol which price is based on the underlying asset. Of course, it should be noted here for the sake of argument that, since it is a CFD instrument, you do not become the owner of the US500.f when trading it. Rather you only speculate on its price. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. These contracts are split by quarter, specifically March, June, September and December. Trading methods US500.f   As with every CFD instrument, with US500.f you can speculate on either rise and/or fall in its price. It can also be a valuable alternative to other CFD futures products we offer at Purple Trading (for example, the VIX volatility index, with which the S&P 500 has an inverse relationship). Furthermore, clients do not pay swap fees for holding a position on this instrument, but only the standard $10/lot fee as with all other CFD futures instruments. However, they must not forget about rollovers. Clients can also use this instrument to hedge stock portfolios or effectively expand client’s exposure to the US market. US500.f specification:   US500.f specification Name in Platform US500.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.01 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50 Frozen orange juice concentrate - Orangej.f If you're a fan of the movie Trading places with Eddie Murphy, you'll remember the scene with the shorting of the orange juice concentrate futures. Guess what, now you can find exactly the same product among our CFD futures instruments! Orangej.f specification   1 lot = 2000 pound of frozen concentrated orange juice market (taken directly from GBE) Contracts every two months (Jan, March, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) Traded on ICE (US) exchange   Orangej.f specification Name in Platform Orangej.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 15:00 – 21:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.2 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 15:38
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Ethereum (ETH) Merge Is Coming! What Does It Mean?

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.06.2022 18:45
Summary:  In August, Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake known as the merge is expected to take place, and the first public test of the merge is set to occur tomorrow. The merge might be one of the most influential events in the history of crypto by impacting Ethereum both technically and economically. We look into the ways that the merge changes Ethereum. Since releasing the first Ethereum whitepaper in 2014, Ethereum’s developers have explicitly mentioned their desire to eventually adapt proof-of-stake instead of proof-of-work, but due to technical difficulties, it has not previously been feasible. Yet, Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake - known as “the merge” - is now closer than ever. On the 8th of June, the first public test of the merge is set to occur subsequent to seven other minor tests. On this day, the existing test network Ropsten is set to perform a merge. If the Ropsten merge is successful, Ethereum will merge two other existing test networks, ahead of the actual merge. With this knowledge and insight from the Ethereum Foundation, it seems reasonable to consider that the merge will take place in August, considering that the tests turn out well. With the merge taking place in the near future, we look at the ways it changes Ethereum both technically and economically. From miners to stakers The most substantial change is the transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, fundamentally changing by what method the network verifies transactions. Instead of tremendous computing power put at the network’s disposal by miners, holders of Ether are those to verify transactions. This means that holders have the option to lock their Ether as collateral to be able to verify transactions, in other words, stake their Ether. In return, they receive the transaction fees alongside the security cost. The latter is the newly issued Ether to financially encourage miners at this point in time, but it later goes to stakers for verify transactions. With proof-of-stake, the main security feature is that stakers can be slashed. In case the network determines that a staker has behaved unethically, for instance, tried to reverse transactions, the network can take some or all of their staked Ether. More environmentally friendly When adapting proof-of-stake, Ethereum reduces its energy consumption by around 99.95%. To understand why we must again consider the differences between the consensus mechanisms. With respect to Ethereum, a new block is currently finalized around every 13th second. In these 13 seconds, every miner fights to be the one to finalize the block. This involves applying computing power and thus requires electricity. However, in the end, it is solely one miner that finalizes the block and verifies the transactions, even though other miners have spent a tremendous amount of energy on the same block. In terms of proof-of-stake, one validator is randomly chosen to finalize a block based on one’s amount of Ether staked. This happens prior to the block, so no other staker is trying to finalize the same block, ultimately reducing Ethereum’s energy consumption by around 99.95%. Improved and fairer economics Because the energy required to verify transactions on Ethereum drastically decreases, the security cost can likewise decline massively. With proof-of-work, Ethereum’s security cost amounts to around 5.4mn Ether yearly. This means that 5.4mn new Ether gets issued yearly to the present supply of around 120mn Ether to encourage miners to verify transactions. At the time of the merge, the security cost declines to around 0.5mn Ether yearly being compensated to stakers. This is an extensive reduction in the inflation of Ethereum, which might even make Ethereum deflationary since the paid transaction costs are expected to outpace Ethereum’s security cost. With respect to transaction fees, a substantial part of these get burned, hence removed from the supply. Over time this might result in a supply shock because the market is used to absorbing 5.4mn newly issued Ether yearly but suddenly only around 0.5mn Ether is to be issued.One might also argue that proof-of-stake is economically fairer for holders of Ethereum than proof-of-work. With proof-of-work, you can technically verify transactions without holding Ether as long as you invest heavily in computing power. This means that holders are not compensated for the inflation and transaction fees, effectively diluting them. In the case of proof-of-stake, stakers are compensated fairly for the inflation and transaction fees. Not significantly more scalable, though By default, the merge does not make Ethereum significantly more scalable. If the merge turns out well, the merge decreases the block size from around 13 to 12 seconds but maintains the same block size. This ultimately leads to an increase in transactional output of 7.5% but not much more than that. Based on the present schedule, Ethereum will first significantly improve scalability sometime in 2023. It is intended that shard chains get implemented around here, which will massively improve Ethereum’s scalability and possibly require even less hardware to verify transactions. 12.8mn Ether to be unlocked later On December 1st, 2020, the proof-of-stake version of Ethereum went live, known as the Beacon Chain. The Beacon Chain is technically the one to be merged with proof-of-work based Ethereum when the merge occurs. The Beacon Chain has been finalizing empty blocks since it went live to ensure that it works as intended. To verify these blocks, Ethereum holders have been able to stake Ether on the Beacon Chain. Over 10% of the total supply of Ether, around 12.8mn Ether, is now staked on the Beacon Chain.However, by staking Ether on the Beacon Chain, the Ether has been locked. It was originally planned to unlock the staked Ether when the merge occurs, but to simplify the merge from a technical point of view, Ethereum’s developers have chosen not to unlock the staked funds at the time of the merge. The unlocking will likely follow 6 months after the merge, in which the 12.8mn Ether alongside the afterward staked Ether will be unlocked. The compensated security cost and transaction fees to stakers are likewise locked in these months. This means that presumably until next year no newly issued Ether nor transaction fees are expected to hit the circulating supply, potentially limiting selling pressure. On the other hand, when the staked Ether is unlocked, which is not unlikely to be above 15mn Ether at that time, it might result in severe selling pressure. More of the same The merge will not impact Ethereum by other substantial means. First, it is not planned to impact or require holders of Ether to take an active stance. The merge will occur without them noticing. Secondly, it should not influence tokens or decentralized applications presently utilizing Ethereum. This means that deployed tokens and smart contracts on Ethereum are planned to work like before the merge.Although Ethereum’s developers have worked on the merge for years, it can turn out bad or be further delayed. Just like everything else in crypto, there are simply no guarantees.   Source: What you need to know about the Ethereum merge | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

ETH/USD: What's Going To Be Ether Price (USD)? What Does TA Say About 1 ETH To USD? | BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 07.06.2022 21:01
Since breaking down from a long-term consolidation pattern, Ethereum (ETH) has struggled to sustain an upward movement and create a bullish structure.       ETH has been falling since reaching an all-time high price of $4,868 in Nov. After bouncing this Jan, the price created a lower high in March (red icon) and has been falling at an accelerated rate since.        The downward movement has so far led to a low of $1,700 on May 12.  An important development is that the price has broken down from an ascending parallel channel which had previously been in place since May 2021. A breakdown from such a long-term structure could cause a similarly long-term drop. Furthermore, the RSI has decreased below 50, in what is considered a sign of a bearish trend. ETH/USD Chart By TradingView Mixed readings The daily chart provides a mixed outlook. On May 8, the price broke down from a descending parallel channel.  Afterward, it validated it as resistance twice, more specifically on May 31 and June 7 (red icons).  However, the RSI has generated a bullish divergence (green line), whose trendline is still intact.  So, while the price action is bearish, the readings from the RSI are bullish.  ETH/USD Chart By TradingView A closer look at the six-hour time frame shows that ETH is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. While this is considered a neutral pattern, it is occuring after a downward movement.  As a result, it is possible that it will lead to the continuation of the downward movement. ETH/USD Chart By TradingView ETH wave count analysis Cryptocurrency trader @TheTradingHubb tweeted a chart of ETH, stating that the price could soon complete wave A of a long-term A-B-C correction. Source: Twitter While this is a possibility, it is not yet certain of the A wave is complete.  If the short-term A:C (white) waves have a 1:1 ratio, this would lead to a low of $876 prior to the reversal.  Furthermore, the exact shape of the ensuing retracement is not yet determined. ETH/USDT Chart By TradingView For Be[in]Crypto’s latest bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here Disclaimer All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.   RELATED TOPICS Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum Analysis Ethereum Price Ethereum Trading Source: Ethereum (ETH) Generates Bullish Divergence Despite Bearish Price (beincrypto.com)
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 09.06.2022 01:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss

Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss

Purple Trading Purple Trading 09.06.2022 12:19
Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss On the markets, it is used by both professional traders and big players such as banks, investment funds, and others. No wonder, because if you master hedging, it can help you to significantly reduce potential losses and keep you profitable. In this article, we'll show you how to hedge and which instruments are suitable for that. What is hedging? It is a kind of insurance in the form of a trading strategy. It is designed to mitigate potential risks. In hedging, traders (and also financial institutions) hold positions on assets/contracts that have an inverse relationship to each other and thus develop inversely. When one instrument falls, the other rises and vice versa.   Benefits There is one significant advantage to being "hedged". Namely, traders, with this form of insurance, are able to reduce the risks on their opened trading positions and thus better respond to adverse market developments that threaten these positions. At the same time, they have the comfort of being able to guess in advance the value of the maximum potential loss in the event that something goes wrong in the markets. Hedging is thus a really important tool in risk management.   Disadvantages Hedging is essentially a form of insurance. And as it happens, you have to pay for insurance. The same is true for investing in opposing instruments. By having one investment grow while the other declines, you lose a certain amount of potential profit. A theoretical example of hedging We have a trader who buys stock XY for $1000. He decides to hedge and to do so he chooses to buy a six-month put option for $100 with a strike price of $850. This means that our trader has half a year until the option expires to sell his stock at 850USD in case the market is unfavorable for him).   If the share price rises A six-month put option is about to expire and the share price is higher than 850 USD (e.g. 1150 USD). The trader will therefore logically not exercise his option, thus losing 100 USD (the original price of his option). However, by keeping XY stock, which is now worth 1150 USD, his net profit is 1050 USD (1150 - 100). As we wrote above, the hedging in this case reduced the trader’s overall profit, but that is a tax he needs to pay for being “insured”. The following example will show you what would have happened if the trader had not hedged.   The share price plunges In an alternate universe, our trader did not do well and the market gave him a slap in the face in the form of a drop in XY's share price to $600. However, our trader has hedged and exercises his still unexpired option. He can then sell his stock at the option price of the announced 850 USD. In this case, his total loss is 250 USD (850 - 600). If we would take a look at our trader in yet another alternative universe where he has not hedged, his loss would be 400 USD (1000 - 600). CFD hedging: the S&P500 and VIX index The current market developments, influenced by high inflation and the war in Ukraine, are not good for the markets. According to the VIX index, nervousness in the markets will continue to rise and stock indices like the SP500 are currently heading in exactly the opposite direction. However, did you know that these 2 mentioned indices can now be traded in Purple Trading to get a rather effective hedging tool? At Purple Trading, traders now have a unique opportunity to hedge using CFD futures contracts. Namely, we are now launching CFD futures symbols in the form of the VIX index and S&P500, which traders can find in their Purple Trading MT4 platforms. Both symbols have a highly inverse relationship with each other, which is why they are widely sought after when it comes to hedging. Chart 1: Six-month S&P500 price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the VIX chart below; source: Googlefinance.com) Chart 2: Six-month VIX price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the SP500 chart above) Relationship between VIX and S&P500 The VIX index is often called the fear or nervousness index. Its chart indicates the estimated future nervousness in the markets. This manifests itself in the form of volatility, i.e. sharp and seemingly random price fluctuations caused by nervous investors who are buying/selling more than usual. Thus, if the VIX index shows an increase, volatility/nervousness in the markets can be expected to increase. The exact opposite is true for the S&P500. It outright hates volatility and nervousness in the markets and if it is announced, the S&P500 usually starts to fall. This is due to nervous investors withdrawing from the stock markets to seemingly safer havens, which is gold for example. Thus, if the VIX index (hence volatility) rises, the S&P500 falls and vice versa. Effective hedging is one of the reasons why Purple Trading clients are among the most profitable in the EU FAQ
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 9, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.06.2022 15:27
Relevance up to 14:00 2022-06-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: The Bermuda government continues its ambitious plans to become a cryptocurrency hub despite the huge slowdown in the market in 2022. According to Bermuda's Economy and Labor Minister Jason Hayward, a small territory known for its pristine pink sand beaches and attractive tax policies has been actively developing its crypto sector since 2017. On June 3, he noted that the government remained unmoved by the recent crash caused by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, as the market had survived a lot since 2017. In an interview with the media, Hayward identified the experience of the economy and local regulators in dealing with foreign businesses as a key factor that will help Bermuda become a cryptographic hub. He also stated that the stock market crash would not prevent the plans from being implemented: "We are aware of the recent devaluation of cryptocurrency prices and we are convinced that this does not threaten the island's ability to become a cryptocurrency hub," he said. So far, the Bermuda Monetary Authority has awarded a total of 14 licenses to crypto companies to operate outside the British Isle, four of which were approved in 2022, noted Crag Swan, chief executive of UMB. Technical Market Outlook: The down trend on the ETH/USD pair is still intact as the bears are approaching the last week low located at the level of $1,701.The bearish pressure increases, so in a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,420. In order to terminate the down trend, the bulls must break through the key short-term technical resistance located at the level of $2,199. The nearest technical resistance is located at $1,863 and $1,916.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,200 WR2 - $2,120 WR1 - $1,939 Weekly Pivot - $1,827 WS1 - $1,666 WS2 - $1,570 WS3 - $1,388 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames had broken below the key long term technical support seen at the level of $2,000 and bears continue to make new lower lows with no problem whatsoever. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,420.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279283
Best Crypto To Invest In? Cryptocurrencies: Are BTC And ETH "Best Long-Term Investments"? Ethereum (ETH/USD) Decreased By 0.4%, Cardano (ADA) Lost 2.5% | FxPro

Best Crypto To Invest In? Cryptocurrencies: Are BTC And ETH "Best Long-Term Investments"? Ethereum (ETH/USD) Decreased By 0.4%, Cardano (ADA) Lost 2.5% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.06.2022 09:06
Bitcoin was down 0.3% on Thursday, continuing to hover around $30K. This mild decline was a bonus of last month's loss of correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Ethereum lost 0.4%, settling near $1800. Other top-10 altcoins showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 2.5% decline (Cardano) to a 3.6% rise (Solana). Financial market veteran Peter Brandt believes Ethereum is in a downward triangle and could fall to $1268 within a month. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 0.2% overnight to $1.24 trillion. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were up 2 points to 13 by Friday and remains in "extreme fear" mode. Bitcoin has crossed the $30K mark almost daily over the past month, with no significant preponderance of buyers or sellers to form a clear trend. Generally, the correlation gap between cryptocurrencies and stock markets is long-term good news as it attracts the attention of professional investors. Weakness in equity and bond markets, sagging gold and the murky outlook for the real estate market are turning their eyes to cryptocurrencies as another tool in a diversified portfolio. CNBC's Mad Money host Jim Cramer has changed his mind about investing in cryptocurrencies, calling BTC and ETH the best long-term investments. However, they should not account for more than 5% of a portfolio. PwC, an audit firm, reported that most hedge funds invest less than 1% of their assets in cryptocurrencies because of regulatory uncertainty in the industry. According to a Deloitte survey, 75% of US retailers will implement support for cryptocurrency payments within two years. USDT, the world's most prominent staple by market capitalisation, will be available on the Tezos blockchain powered by the Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. The USDT ecosystem is now open on 12 networks, including Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Tron and Algorand.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

ETHUSD: Ethereum May Update A Two-Year Low Despite Transition To PoS (Proof Of Stake)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.06.2022 14:13
Relevance up to 11:00 2022-06-11 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The summer of 2022 becomes the key for the future of the main altcoin Ethereum. On the one hand, the asset is approaching a historical event and the transition to Proof-of-Stake. On the other hand, the asset is trading near the dangerous level of $1.8k, and risks updating the local bottom near the level of $1.3k. This development is indicated by both fundamental factors and technical metrics. The coin largely echoes the movement of Bitcoin and is approaching a defining moment. The asset is completing the formation of a "wedge" figure on the daily chart. This indicates an increase in volatility, as well as a likely momentum out of the narrowing range. The technical indicators point to an ongoing period of consolidation. However, the RSI and the stochastic oscillator are gradually dropping to the lower border of the bullish zone, which indicates a slight dominance of sellers.   In addition, there is a constant influx of ETH coins to exchanges, which is a negative factor in anticipation of the transition to PoS. At the same time, it should be noted that there are impulsive withdrawals of coins from cryptocurrency exchanges, but they are local in nature and do not occur on an ongoing basis. In many ways, this situation was formed due to the growing level of Bitcoin dominance. Ether failed to become a full-fledged deflationary asset, including due to the transition to Proof-of-Stake.     The Ethereum team has already migrated the Ropsten testnet to the PoS consensus algorithm. The first transactions have already been included in the testnet based on the new algorithm. The merge did not go smoothly, and the developers noticed problems with the proposal of new blocks by the validators. The team is currently working on a solution to this problem. In the long term, as the ETH network migrates to PoS, Ethereum's influence on the crypto market should increase. However, in the current environment, investors are not very enthusiastic about everything that happens, and there are two reasons for this. Both of them are directly related to the bear market and its consequences. The total cost of funds in DeFi applications has decreased by 55% since the beginning of 2022. This indicates a low level of liquidity, and many projects have to adjust in order to survive. Transactions on the ETH network have also dropped to a minimum, as decentralized applications are the main source of transactions on the main altcoin network. A bear market will significantly "cleanse" this market, which will negatively affect the Ethereum ecosystem and the capitalization of the coin.     The second reason is the current macroeconomic situation. The main altcoin is not an important tool in the current environment, when the main goal of investors is capital protection and related investments. CoinShares notes that more and more VCs are opting for Bitcoin-based products due to high inflation rates. Similar forecasts are given in the central bank of the EU and the USA. In the current conditions, ETH completely loses the competition to Bitcoin.         In the current situation, the further movement of the ETH price will largely depend on Bitcoin. The main digital asset increased its dominance level to a six-month high, due to which the correlation of the altcoin with BTC increased significantly.     And if Bitcoin makes a downward breakdown of its own triangle, then there is every reason to believe that the ether will follow a new local bottom, which runs in the $1.3k–$1.4k area.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313098
Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.06.2022 00:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

BTC/USD Hitting $20K!? Bitcoin Price Is Going Down! ETH/USD, Solana (SOL) And Tron - They All Have Decreased! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.06.2022 08:36
Bitcoin is losing for the seventh consecutive day, at one point on Monday morning, falling below $25K. The loss in seven days of selling is approaching 18%, bringing the rate to its lowest since December 2020. Ethereum has lost 28% in seven days. Altcoins in the top 10 fell in price from 14.5% (Tron) to 32% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 20% for the week, approaching the 1 trillion mark and crossing it at some point in the morning. As the price falls, so does trading volume, meaning we see investors fleeing the crypto market. However, the traditional market is suffering from the same symptoms. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dipped to 11 points by Monday. Two similarly prolonged swings of this index in the 10-20 range were in December 2018 and March 2020. In the first, it was the end of the crypto-winter; in the second, it was the final chord of the sell-off. However, it may be too early to rush to redeem the drawdown. Bitcoin does not seem to have closed the gestalt yet, having not tested the 200-week moving average as it did in the previous two cases. It is now passing through 22K. A more ambitious target for the bears would be an attempt to push Bitcoin back to the 2017 highs region, above $19K. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called cryptocurrencies a ‘very risky’ option for retirement savings. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned investors of a prolonged phase of market consolidation amid tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Cardano blockchain founder Charles Hoskinson believes there are positives to be found even in the current market situation, as a bearish trend opens new opportunities for the crypto sphere. The Central Bank of Canada reported that the share of its citizens owning BTC almost tripled to 13% in 2021. The Swedish Central Bank has called for a ban on bitcoin and other Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies because of the environmental impact.
Market Crash: Are Ethereum (ETH) And Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price "Very Close To Their Bottom"!? | FXStreet

Market Crash: Are Ethereum (ETH) And Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price "Very Close To Their Bottom"!? | FXStreet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.06.2022 16:46
Analyst who predicted the bear market of 2018 believes Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are very close to their bottom. Kevin O’Leary of Shark Tank detailed his crypto holdings include Ethereum and scaling solution MATIC. Analysts argue that a drop below $1,070 could push Ethereum prices lower. The cryptocurrency analyst known for accurately predicting crypto bear markets believes Ethereum is close to printing cycle lows. Analysts believe Ethereum price could continue to plummet lower. Ethereum price could hit bottom soon? The crypto strategist Smart Contracter accurately called the bottom of Bitcoin and Ethereum during the 2018 bear market. The analyst is now back with his prediction for the two largest cryptocurrencies and believes BTC and ETH are close to their cycle low. The analyst told his 208,000 followers on Twitter that Ethereum has gone through a capitulation phase and is now trading at a level that offers strong support. Smart Contracter is quoted in his recent tweet: BTC and ETH are both at their weekly respective 200-week moving averages. Bottom is very, very close in my opinion, maybe marginal new lows on lower timeframes but this is the spot to start accumulating in my opinion. This is pure unadulterated capitulation. ETH-USD price chart Kevin O’Leary is bullish on Ethereum Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian entrepreneur and investor at Shark Tank, recently revealed the cryptocurrencies in his portfolio. O’Leary has shared his investment strategy when the crypto market is hit by massive volatility. The Shark Tank star and billionaire investor abide by the general rules of portfolio theory when allocating capital to cryptocurrencies. In an interview with the Bankless podcast, O’Leary shared the rules of capital allocation in his portfolio, implying a bullish outlook on Ethereum, one of the cryptocurrencies he holds. Ethereum price drop below $1,070 could push the altcoin to new low Analysts have evaluated the Ethereum price trend and argue that $1,070 is major support for ETH, and a drop below this level could put a lot of pressure on bulls. The altcoin’s price could slide to support at $1,000 in the near term. ETH-USD price chart Ethereum price could enter the three-digit territory FXStreet analysts believe Ethereum price could decline and plummet lower, entering the three-digit territory. For more information, watch this video:
Crypto News: Bitcoin stalling after yesterday’s recovery?

Crypto News: Bitcoin stalling after yesterday’s recovery?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 16.06.2022 09:25
After a long period of heavy selling, crypto markets saw a small respite yesterday. The Fed raised rates higher than expected yesterday and advised they will do whatever is required to get inflation back around the 2% level. Whether it was a point of oversold value or market confidence in the Fed’s message of action, the result was a recovery in risk markets. From FX to indexes and crypto buyers pushed back, posting higher closes after days of selling. This morning the script continued on from yesterday as buyers continued to hold sway, but this changed into the LON session as a wave of new sellers moved in, knocking the wind out of buyer sails. Bitcoin is the focus of today’s report. After 8 hours of buying, sellers stepped in, re-holding 22,670 resistance. Since that point, we are now seeing three straight bars lower. From here, the 4H show’s a V pattern which could become a reversal but  the trends are definitely lower at the moment, and price failed to break 22,670 resistance. We see two paths from this point. One, buyers manage to break resistance extending the current recovery. Two, we see the current selling expand with a new move back to support. If we see a break of support, this could set up a new extension of the current downtrend. Bitcoin 4H chart The post Crypto News: Bitcoin stalling after yesterday’s recovery? appeared first on Eightcap.
Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 16.06.2022 13:30
Watch Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, this Monday for more analysis and market support in his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Join him as he begins the week by sharing his market approach, potential trade ideas, and opportunities that are in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 22nd June 2022! Would you like some more support in understanding the mid-week performance and trajectory of the markets? Register for next week’s Live Market Update and join Stuart on Wednesday 22nd June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he shares his review of the market progression made and summarises his predictions as we approach the weekend. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the chance to ask Stuart all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions in a live Q&A. Learn how to approach the markets and what you need to trade CFDs safely. If you are looking for that extra bit of support and guidance, the Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help you need to improve your skills and understanding. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Fluctuating Crypto: (ETH/USD) Ethereum Price Has Gone Down! Trading plan for Ethereum on June 17, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 15:31
Relevance up to 14:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped through the $1,012 low early this week before finding interim support. The crypto is seen to be trading close to the $1075 mark and is expected to resume its rally towards $1,920 initial resistance soon. Bulls are looking poised to hold prices above the $1,000 mark to keep the near term structure intact and constructive. Ethereum has carved a meaningful downswing between $4,850 and $1,012 levels as seen on the daily chart. Ideally, prices need to retrace the above drop before the next leg lower could resume. Immediate price resistance is seen through the $1,920 mark and a minimum push towards that is expected in the near term. Ethereum might have terminated its decline around the $1,012 mark and could be preparing to resume its rally. A push above $1,244 will be required to confirm that bulls are back in control and further acceleration towards the $1,920 mark. Aggressive traders might be preparing to initiate fresh long positions against $1,000. Trading plan: Preparing to resume higher through $1,920 mark against $1,000 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280641
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 10:30
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee - 19.06.2022

Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee - 19.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 19.06.2022 10:00
Watch Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, this Monday for more analysis and market support in his Trading Week Ahead Live. Join him as he begins the week by sharing his market approach, potential trade ideas, and opportunities that are in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 22nd June 2022! Would you like some more support in understanding the mid-week performance and trajectory of the markets? Register for next week’s Live Market Update and join Stuart on Wednesday 22nd June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he shares his review of the market progression made and summarises his predictions as we approach the weekend. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the chance to ask Stuart all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions in a live Q&A. Learn how to approach the markets and what you need to trade CFDs safely. If you are looking for that extra bit of support and guidance, the Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help you need to improve your skills and understanding. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

ETH Price May Be Surprising! Ethereum - Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 20, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2022 09:36
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: Tether, the largest stablecoin and the third largest cryptocurrency in the world, fell victim to a massive DDOS attack on June 18. According to a tweet by Paolo Ardoino, the company received a ransom note from hackers who attacked its system. He explained, however, that this was by no means new. Tether has dealt with similar situations in the past. As a result of the attack on the stablecoin site, 8 million queries were recorded in 5 minutes. On a normal day, she only receives 2 inquiries per 5 minutes. The company first reported the attack about 2 hours after it was launched. While tether has been losing market share in the past few weeks, other stablecoins, such as USD Coin (USDC), have been gaining in value. USDC's market capitalization has risen from approximately $ 48 billion in mid-May to $ 55 billion today. The dwindling market cap of the tether is taking place in the face of ongoing panic in the market. The aggregate value of the entire cryptocurrency market has recently dropped below $ 1 trillion for the first time since February 2021. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had made the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the H4 time frame chart and is continuing the up move. The recent local high was made at the level of $1,156, however, it is still not enough to terminate the down trend just yet. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,233, which is the technical resistance. The intraday technical supports are seen on the levels of $1,048, $1,008 and $1,000. The larger time frame chart trend remains down and as long as the key short-term technical resistance is not clearly violated, the outlook remains bearish.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,249 WR2 - $1,737 WR1 - $1,420 Weekly Pivot - $1,161 WS1 - $818 WS2 - $551 WS3 - $206 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames had broken below the key long term technical support seen at the level of $1,420 and bears continue to make new lower lows with no problem whatsoever. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Please notice, the down trend is being continued for the 11th consecutive week now.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280793
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Trading Signal for Ethereum (ETH/USD) on June 20-21, 2022: buy above $1,045 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray) | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2022 18:04
Relevance up to 16:00 2022-06-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Ethereum (ETH/USD) fell to new lows at $878 on Saturday, this level was last seen on Jan 3, 2021. Since this level, Ethereum has been bouncing and has recovered over 30%. It is currently trading at around 1,125 about 1/8 Murray. Cryptocurrency market sentiment has stabilized. Bitcoin has bounced from the low of 17,566 to $20,970 with a gain of more than 20%. Retail buying, profit-taking on short positions and strong overselling have all acted as support for a strong bottom which is likely to see the market recover some of the losses of the last few weeks. Another fact that sets the stage for the recovery of cryptocurrencies is the change in market sentiment. Risk assets such as the Nasdaq-100 index are bouncing and this could favor the recovery of Ether in the coming days. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that Ether reached the -1/8 Murray line at 875. This level represents extremely oversold conditions which were proven when the eagle indicator reached the 5-point level. Since June 18, the eagle indicator has been giving a positive signal. So, any pullback in ETH is likely to be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at the strong resistance of 2/8 Murray located at 1,250. Seeing that Ether broke the 21 SMA and is now consolidating above this level adds a positive outlook. As long as it keeps trading above $1045, a recovery is likely in the next few days. If the bullish trend persists and the price breaks sharply and closes above 2/8 Murray at 1,250 on the daily chart, we could expect an upward acceleration. The price could reach the EMA 200 located at 1,774, which would mean a recovery of more than 80% of ETH /USD. On the downside, if ETH consolidates below the 0/8 Murray located at the psychological level of $1000, we could expect a sharp drop and it could reach the area of -1/8 Murray at $875. Our trading plan for the next few hours is buy ETH/USD above 1/8 Murray located at 1,125 or wait for a technical bounce from 1,045 (21 SMA) with targets at 1,250 and 1,574. The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal which supports our bullish strategy.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280907
The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 16:54
The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed.   The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation.     But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend.   German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be.    Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980.   The euro has rejected lower readings  Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart.   The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%.  Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend.   The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000.   Central Bank of Japan still dovish   In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.  
Analysis Of The Ripple (XRP) Price Movement

Trading plan for Ripple on June 21, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2022 14:04
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Technical outlook: Ripple grew above $0.33000 intraday on Tuesday in line with our projections. The crypto is seen to be trading close to the day's high at this point in writing and is expected to push through $0.41000 going forward. Bulls are now poised to hold prices above $0.28700 to keep the structure intact. Ripple seems to have completed/terminated a larger-degree corrective drop from around $0.28700. The crypto has been dropping since the $1.91600 highs registered in April 2021 and might have completed a potential standard flat correction. If the above structure holds well, prices will resume the rally from current levels and will take out immediate price resistance at $0.41000. A price break above $0.41000 will confirm that bulls are back in control and that the potential trend might have reversed. Potential targets for Ripple are around $0.65000, followed by $0.92700 and up to $1.31800. Traders might be preparing to initiate fresh long positions from current levels with risk below $0.28700. Trading plan: Potential rally through $0.4100 and $0.65000 against $0.28000 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281081
ETH/USD May Scare Many! Market Crash: Can 1 ETH To USD Reach $750!?

ETH/USD May Scare Many! Market Crash: Can 1 ETH To USD Reach $750!?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.06.2022 16:34
Ethereum collateral position set a new record as 71,863.47 ETH were liquidated on June 18. Independent market analyst told his followers that latest Ethereum price rally would make for a clean fakeout. Analysts believe Ethereum price could plummet to $750 in the bear market, an 85% drop from all-time high. Ethereum price has rebounded from its recent slump, outperforming Bitcoin. Experts believe the recent rebound could end up being a “clean fakeout” as liquidations hit large Ethereum collateral positions. Some analysts are projecting a bearish outlook on Ethereum price. Largest Ethereum collateral position liquidated Based on data from Dune Analytics, a crypto data intelligence platform, the wallet with code 0x2291F52bddc937b5B840d15E551e1DA8C80c2B3c liquidated a 71,863.47 ETH collateral position on Liquity at $927.13, at 19:39 GMT on June 18. This set the largest single liquidation record for Liquity. Liquity is a decentralized borrowing protocol that allows users to draw loans at 0% interest against an Ethereum collateral. Loans are paid out in LUSD, a USD-pegged stablecoin on Liquity protocol. The chart below represents the hourly total value locked (TVL) change over the past week on Liquity and the largest ETH liquidation is represented on June 18. Hourly TVL Change (7 days) Liquity Ethereum price gained 30% in two days, outpaced Bitcoin After its massive recent slump, Ethereum price has bounced back, rallying 30% within 48 hours. Experts noted that this ETH recovery has outpaced Bitcoin as the altcoin made a comeback above $1,100 within two days. Experts noted that Ethereum is currently the best-performing asset in the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Ethereum started a short-term uptrend after dropping to the support zone at $880 on June 19 and climbed above $1,100 moving into a short-term bullish zone. The altcoin now faces major resistance near the $1,150 and $1,160 levels. ETH-USD price chart Analyst calls “clean fakeout” in Ethereum price PostyXBT, a crypto trader and analyst, told his 79,900 followers to be careful of the recent rebound in Ethereum price. The analyst argued that the move “would make for a clean fakeout.” The analyst was quoted in a tweet: [Ethereum]... stopped out on the reclaim of the level. It looks like an opportunity to flip long towards $1250 but $btc still hasn't reclaimed it's like for like level. Would make for a clean fake out. Be careful. Justin Bennett, co-founder of Cryptocademy, supports this fakeout prediction. Bennett noted that fakeouts to one side of the pattern trigger extended moves in the opposite direction. He considers $900 and $780 as support levels for Ethereum price. Ethereum price could drop to $750 for this reason Wendy O, the host of the O show and a leading crypto analyst, believes Ethereum price could plummet to a $750 low. Wendy argues that the current price of Ethereum is close to the beginning of 2021. Typically in bear markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices can drop up to 85%. If this holds true, an 85% drawdown from Ethereum’s all-time high of $4,800 would lead to $750 and this is the level that Wendy is watching out for. Wendy told NextAdvisor, Ethereum hit an all-time high in November 2021 at roughly $4,800, so an 85% correction would lead to around $750. However, it’s not going to be a straight shot down. Key investment strategy before next Ethereum bull run Analysts at FXStreet have recommended dollar cost averaging (DCA) as the ideal investment strategy before Ethereum’s next bull run. They consider $900 the bottom for Ethereum price and recommended $500 investments when price hit $1,000 and again when it hit $1,100. For more information, watch this video:
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Will We Pay Less For 1 ETH!? Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 22, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 09:16
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-06-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Tether, announced that the company will undergo a series of audits involving several large specialized companies. In a tweet, Tether announced that it intends to conduct a series of talks with top consulting companies in the coming days. Immediately there was speculation that the recent market crash and the collapse of Terra's stablecoin may have put the company in a difficult position and that it is trying to rectify its mistakes. On the other hand, in just one week, stablecoin faced record payouts of its currency. As much as 12% of USDT evaporated from circulation. This is one of the largest withdrawals in history. Perhaps even second to the $ 16 billion payout by Washington Mutual that led to its bankruptcy in 2008. On May 12, Tether lost its link to the dollar for several hours. Then its rate fell to $ 0.95, triggering panic in the markets. Doubts have arisen over Tether's cash reserves for some time. Apparently, the next scheduled audits are to focus on this issue. Ardoino, who has been trying to assure the solidity of the company's reserves for some time, said Tether had reduced commercial paper holdings from $ 40 billion to $ 15 billion in the past eight months. In addition, there has been a greater shift in reserves towards securities with maturities ranging from zero to three months. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken below the short-term trend line support after the second Pin Bar candlestick was done at the level of $1,191. This recent high is still not enough to terminate the down trend just yet. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,233, which is the technical resistance. The intraday technical supports are seen on the levels of $1,048, $1,008 and $1,100. The larger time frame chart trend remains down and as long as the key short-term technical resistance is not clearly violated, the outlook remains bearish.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,249 WR2 - $1,737 WR1 - $1,420 Weekly Pivot - $1,161 WS1 - $818 WS2 - $551 WS3 - $206 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames had broken below the key long term technical support seen at the level of $1,420 and bears continue to make new lower lows with no problem whatsoever. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Please notice, the down trend is being continued for the 11th consecutive week now.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281209
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ETH: End Of Crypto Crash!? Is Ethereum (ETH/USD) Going To Increase By 45%!? | FXStreet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.06.2022 16:36
Ethereum price sees momentum building for a pop towards $1,243.89. With several central banks this week signalling near the end of the rate hike cycle, markets are finding equilibrium. Expect that space ETH price to rally higher and could return to $1,688.39. Ethereum (ETH) price is technically set to make a killing with a possible 8% intraday gain in sight and, in the near term, a whopping 45% gain forecast. The sudden change comes after a few central banks signalled that the end of their monetary tightening is near, and comments from Powell make clear that the FED will push the US into a recession deliberately to cut short inflation and, by doing so, could trigger a massive weaker dollar. That opens up massive room for ETH price action to manoeuvre in, return to the base of the triangle at $1,688.39 and book 45% gains. ETH price gearing up for 45% gains Ethereum price opens quite bullish this morning in the ASIA PAC session after bulls faced headwinds this week but look to survive and eke out weekly gains going into the weekend. As grim and dire as last week's outlook, the background is changing this week with different rhetoric as markets assess the new information from central banks. As it stands, the congressional hearing of Powell revealed that the FED is planning to push the US into recession to tame inflation deliberately. ETH price could trade off this information as a recession in the US would mean a weaker dollar, and several other central banks have notified markets that they are near ending their tightening path, which means that money conditions could start to normalize again with cash inflow set to restart for cryptocurrencies. On the back of that, ETH price could jump above $1,243.89 and have the field wide open to rally in, with sight set on the base of the bearish triangle from May at $1,649.37. ETH/USD daily chart The delicate equilibrium currently playing with the situation in Ukraine and Russia could easily break down again with the cut-off from supply chains to the Russian enclave Kaliningrad. That could see a Russian military response and ramp up tensions again on the geopolitical stage. That would come with a wave of risk-off again and smash ETH price back to $1,000 and possibly see it slip back below $900 for support. Do not even rule out a test at $830.93 at the pivotal historic level already marked up.
What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability?

What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 27.06.2022 12:31
What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability? The layout of a broker's trading infrastructure is usually not something that would capture the attention of too many traders. However, did you know that a surprisingly large number of brokers do not send their clients' trade orders to the real market, but rather create an artificial counterparty themselves are market makers? This creates motivation for order manipulation, which, on the other hand, is indeed something that traders should be interested in. What is the broker infrastructure model? The broker model refers to the way in which a broker's trading infrastructure is built to process the trading orders of its clients. While it may seem that way, when trading, an order entered by you into the platform may not always travel to the interbank market where it is then expected to be paired with an order from another trader or institution. In fact, there are models that do not send your trade orders to the interbank market. Instead, they form a counterparty to your order immediately, on their side. Market maker model (MM) Brokers of this type are usually among the larger ones on the scene. In order to act as a counterparty to all their clients' trades, they need to have a really high level of liquidity. However, this could lend them a fair amount of motivation to meddle with the trading results of their clients. If it is a proven broker without a dark past, there is probably no reason to worry. However, there are known cases where even larger brokerage firms have artificially increased slippages, set minimum stop loss intervals, or influenced their clients' transactions in other similar ways. The reason for this behavior is quite clear. In the MM model, all losing client trades go back to the broker (not to the interbank market, where they would end up in other broker operating models). Thus, brokers built on the MM model may have a vested interest in the loss-making performance of their own clients.   Figure 1: Schematic of the MM broker's operation STP model From the "straight-through processing", brokers of this type have their infrastructure set up in such a way that they can only match their clients' orders with orders from so-called liquidity providers in the interbank market. The broker in this case charges a commission on each trade in the form of a slightly higher spread and matches clients with entities in the real market. Liquidity providers (LP) The quality of an STP broker is largely shaped by the nature of the liquidity providers with which it works.   Another broker operating on a market maker model or a bank. MFT - multilateral trading facility - a type of exchange on which different participants are linked together. Prime of primes - this provider collects prices from the interbank market and combines them with other offers from financial institutions. This LP thus has the ability to provide the best prices to the broker's clients.   Figure 2: Difference between STP and MM broker model Hybrid model Combination of STP and MM models. A broker based on the hybrid model has the ability to send a certain part of client orders to the interbank market and act as a counterparty for the rest. The broker thus has the ability to "get rid" of profitable clients by sending their orders to an external entity. How to find out which model is broker built on? Recognizing a broker's model may not be easy at first as it requires at least a partial orientation on the broker's website. The safe bet, however, is to check the broker's license directly on the Regulators website. The information about the infrastructure model is listed there in black and white. Just look up whether the broker is authorised to "deal on own account". STP model brokerage will not have it there. Figure 3: An example of the types of services Purple Trading can perform under its license (source: https://www.cysec.gov.cy/en-GB/entities/investment-firms/cypriot/72454/) What role does the broker model play in your profitability? While there is no way to equate a broker's model with the profitability of its clients, there are certain things that cannot be overlooked. While an STP broker has the same rate of earnings whether your trade is successful or not (because it profits from spreads), the MM and hybrid models can already benefit from your potential failures. Let's also mention the fact that by forming a counterparty to your trades on their side, these brokers potentially have the motivation to manipulate the market to their advantage. So as a trader, you logically have to wonder whether a broker who has such tools in his hand is not abusing them to enrich himself at your expense.
The Swing Overview – Week 25 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 25 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 27.06.2022 13:52
The Swing Overview – Week 25 There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar. Macroeconomic data We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.   In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held steady last week, reaching 229k. Thus, compared to the previous week, the number of claims fell by 2 thousand.   The US Dollar took a break in this quiet week and came down from its peak which is at 106, 86. Overall, however, the dollar is still in an uptrend. The US 10-year bond yields also fell last week and are currently hovering around 3%. The fall in bond yields was then a positive boost for equity indices. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been gaining since Monday, June 20, 2022. However, this is probably not a signal of a major bullish reversal. Fundamental reasons still rather speak for a weakening and so it could be a short-term correction of the current bearish trend. The rise is probably caused by long-term investors who were buying the dip. Next week the US will report the GDP data which could be the catalyst for further movement.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The index has currently reached the resistance level according to the H4 chart, which is in the region of 3,820 - 3,836. The next strong resistance is then in the area of 3,870 - 3,900 where the previous support was broken and turned into the resistance. The current nearest support is 3 640 - 3 670.    German DAX index The manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.0. The previous month's PMI was 54.8. While a value above 50 indicates an expected expansion, it must be said that the PMI has essentially been declining since February 2022. This, together with other data coming out of Germany, suggests a certain pessimism, which is also reflected in the DAX index. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX broke support according to the H4 chart at 12,950 - 12,980 but then broke back above that level, so we don't have a valid breakout. Overall, however, the DAX is in a downtrend and the technical analysis does not show a stronger sign of a reversal of this trend yet. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,130 - 13,190. The next resistance is then at 13 420 - 13 440. Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,600.   Eurozone inflation at a new record Consumer inflation in the Eurozone for May rose by 8.1% year-on-year as expected by analysts. On a month-on-month basis, inflation added 0.8% compared to April. The rise in inflation could support the ECB's decision to raise rates possibly by more than the 0.25% expected so far, which is expected to happen at the July meeting.  Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart From a technical perspective, the euro has bounced off support on the pair with the US dollar according to the daily chart, which is in the 1.0340 - 1.0370 range and continues to strengthen. Overall, however, the pair is still in a downtrend. The US Fed has been much more aggressive in fighting inflation than the ECB and this continues to put pressure on the bearish trend in the euro. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.058 - 1.0600. Strong resistance according to the daily chart is at 1.0780 - 1.0800.   The Czech National Bank raised the interest rate again Rising inflation, which has already reached 16% in the Czech Republic, forced the CNB's board to raise interest rates again. The key interest rate is now at 7%. The last time the interest rate was this high was in 1999. This is the last decision of the old Bank Board. In August, the new board, which is not clearly hawkish, will decide on monetary policy. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how they approach the rising inflation.   The current risks, according to the CNB, are higher price growth at home and abroad, the risk of a halt in energy supplies from Russia and generally rising inflation expectations. The lingering risk is, of course, the war in Ukraine. The CNB has also decided to continue intervening in the market to keep the Czech koruna exchange rate within acceptable limits and prevent it from depreciating, which would increase import inflation pressures. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and The EUR/CZK on the daily chart Looking at the charts, the koruna hardly reacted at all to the CNB's decision to raise rates sharply. Against the dollar, the koruna is weakening somewhat, while against the euro the koruna is holding its value around 24.60 - 24.80. The appreciation of the koruna after the interest rate hike was probably prevented by uncertainty about how the new board will treat inflation, and also by the fact that there is a risk-off sentiment in global markets and investors prefer so-called safe havens in such cases, which include the US dollar.  
Neither a Crypto Borrower nor a Lender Be

Neither a Crypto Borrower nor a Lender Be

David Merkel David Merkel 30.06.2022 08:49
Image credit: Diverse Stock Photos || Would that those shiny coins were the real thing. Metal coins are real. Code, not so. As I have said before, look at the underlying economics of an investment rather than its external form. It doesn’t matter whether it is public or private. The form of an investment does not affect its returns, for the most part. I grew up in investing as a risk manager within life insurance and fixed income. We faced three main risks: credit, liquidity, and duration. We had lesser risks as well, like FX, sovereigns, convexity, etc. My main goal was to see the firm survive under all reasonable circumstances. My secondary goal was to improve profitability over those same circumstances. In doing that, we could make some small “side bets.” Buy an underpriced Canadian dollar bond. Buy a broken convertible bond of a beaten down company. Buy underpriced MBS where the models are overstating refinancing risk. Things like that. We could not make those side bets too large, but we could put a few on to try to make some money for the firm. We would match assets against our likely liability cashflows. We knew that 99%+ of the time, we would be fine. I can’t imagine what the so-called crypto banks are thinking. Much as they deride banking generally, they don’t have the vaguest idea of what they are doing. They should hire an investment actuary to limit what they do. Imagine a world where banks don’t care about currency risk, and some fail because the temptation to reach for yield causes them to buy asset in currencies that are weak… leading them to lose capital on net. This is the nature of crypto lending and borrowing. As Aristotle might have said, “Crypto is sterile.” It doesn’t produce anything. So don’t lend out crypto for a return… you may lose you principal in the process. There is no good reason why you should earn a return exceeding Treasuries plus 1% in lending crypto. But no one in crypto considers risk control. In one sense, I’m not sure how it could be done, unless you limit yourself to one major cryptocurrency — Bitcoin or Ethereum. The grand questions should be: Can I be sure of making payments over the next three months?Is my leverage low enough that the mélange of assets that I own will be able to cover my liabilities? Is there anything I can do to promote long-term survival? With cryptocurrency banks and stablecoins these concerns are ignored. They take risks that no bank or insurance company would take and with far less capital than would be reasonable. I encourage you to sell your crypto and buy gold, stocks, bonds, and other dollar-denominated assets.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 30.06.2022 13:01
Join our first Trading Week Ahead Live of the month, as ForexAnalytix give you access to their morning market analysis platform, ‘The Flow Show’. Watch Ryan littlestone this coming Monday, 4th July, at 7.30PM AEST (10.30AM BST), as ForexAnalytix delivers their market insight, potential market ideas and opportunities they feel are in play for the upcoming week JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 6th July 2022! Have trouble deciding what to trade? Join Ryan as he delivers his first live market update as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ takes over the Trade Zone for July. Join Ryan Littlestone, an accomplished trader with 30+ years of trading experience, for a 30-45-minute live stream on Wednesday 6th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST) as he guides you through the trading week. Set a Reminder The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 04.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 04.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 03.07.2022 13:01
Join our first Trading Week Ahead Live of the month, as ForexAnalytix give you access to their morning market analysis platform, ‘The Flow Show’. Watch Ryan Littlestone, as he delivers market insight, potential market ideas and the opportunities he feels are in play for the upcoming week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 6th July 2022! Have trouble deciding what to trade? An accomplished trader with 30+ years of trading experience, Join Ryan as he delivers his first Live Market Update, as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ takes over the Eightcap Trade Zone for July. Join Ryan, for a 30-45-minute live stream on Wednesday 6th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST) as he guides you through the trading week. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Oil pulling away after testing key demand area

Oil pulling away after testing key demand area

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 07.07.2022 08:39
Hi traders, welcome to today’s update. We can see demand and support developing for oil on the weekly and daily charts. In today’s update, we will concentrate on the weekly chart. Overall price remains in an uptrend; this trend is long-term as it has been running since April 2020. Since the last spike to 130, we have seen price become choppy, with resistance at $119 – $124 and a new LH confirmed last month. A fast decline occurred after the LH and price briefly broke below the $100 round number. It’s what’s happening below $100 that has our attention at the moment. We can see a strong area of demand from 97.50. Since February this year, each attempt from sellers has failed to break this area. This week so far has been no different. Once again, we have seen a move into this area rejected by buyers in that area. With this in mind, we will see a new rally set up that could end up retesting the resistance area at 122? This all rests on the premise that the demand area can continue to hold. If we did see a break, we would be looking for a new move lower that tests the main trend line. Some of the factors at the moment. Global recession fears, this could continue to drive the USD higher and put pressure on oil due to future demand. Further lockdowns in China could also weigh on demand due to China’s oil demand. Obviously, any new developments regarding Russia could also have a direct impact on supply. Demand increasing or holding firm with price holding above the demand area could be a positive for buyers, but if factors swing against and we see a break of demand, the reaction could be turning into something more significant. Finally, it’s pretty hard to believe right now that oil traded at $7.27 just over 2-years ago! OIL W1 Chart The post Oil pulling away after testing key demand area appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 08.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 08.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 08.07.2022 15:06
Join us this coming Monday for another instalment of our Trading Week Ahead Live in partnership with the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, to deliver you more expert market insight. Watch Ryan Littlestone, Managing Director and market expert at ForexAnalytix as as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asia and early European sessions, and looks to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S FOR OUR SECOND LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 13th July 2022! Be inspired by our expert! Watch Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ takes the Eightcap Trade Zone helm this July. Join Ryan, ForexAnalytix Managing Director and a veteran trader with 30+ years of trading experience, as he hosts a 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he takes you through his mid-week review. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 10.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 10.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 10.07.2022 15:06
Join us for another instalment of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as we deliver more expert market insight. Watch Ryan Littlestone, Managing Director and market expert at ForexAnalytix, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and looks to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S FOR OUR SECOND LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 13th July 2022! Be inspired by our expert! Watch Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ takes the Eightcap Trade Zone helm and provides your mid-week Live Market update. Join him as he hosts another 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he updates you with the news and moves made since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 14.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 14.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 14.07.2022 14:45
Join us for the penultimate episode of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix, as we look to finish off the month strongly and deliver more expert live market analysis. Watch Ryan Littlestone, market expert, Managing Director, and host of the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and continues to help you to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 20th July 2022! Secure your place to see how an expert prepares for the week’s market activity! Join Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ continues to take control of the Eightcap Trade Zone and provide you with his penultimate mid-week Live Market update of the month. Watch his 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he explores the news and moves, seeks trade ideas, and analyses the market progress since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

Altcoins: ETH/USD - Technical Analysis (Ethereum To US Dollar)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.07.2022 10:26
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-07-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: Navin Jain, director of Mastercard Indonesia, said Mastercard will support Fasset's efforts to promote financial integration in the country. Financial services company Mastercard has partnered with crypto gateway provider Fasset to jointly develop digital solutions that can drive adoption in Indonesia. The cooperation is aimed at expanding financial integration in the country and expanding the possibilities of the local economy. In a release, Navin Jain, national director of Mastercard Indonesia, said the collaboration would support Fasset's efforts to foster financial integration in the country. According to Jain, the partnership will help residents gain greater access to digital technology. Hendra Suryakusuma, director of Fasset, said there are 92 million people in Indonesia who do not have a bank account. Fasset and Mastercard will fill this gap, according to Suryakusuma, to ensure better access to digital financial services. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair is back inside the channel and the bulls really want to test the supply zone located between the levels of $1,255 - $1,281. The momentum is at the level of 50 points already, so the bulls might soon break back inside the positive territory as well. The intraday technical support is seen on the level of $1,071 and $1,114. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the key short-term technical resistance, located at the level of $1,281, is not clearly violated, the outlook remains bearish.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,466 WR2 - $1,412 WR1 - $1,321 Weekly Pivot - $1,181 WS1 - $1,090 WS2 - $950 WS3 - $718 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames had broken below the key long term technical support seen at the level of $1,420 and bears continue to make new lower lows with no problem whatsoever. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the levels below $1,000, like the last swing low seen at $880. Please notice, the down trend is being continued for the 12th consecutive week now.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/284644
Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 14:23
5 must-watch series from the world of finance With the boom of streaming services, investors are presented with often exciting opportunities. But today, we'll try to move away from looking at the world through the eyes of an investor and focus more on the content that streaming services offer. More accurately, we will take a look at the series that can be found on these platforms. But don’t worry, we won’t get too far from our beloved world of finance either. Financial world has always been an attractive subject not only for Hollywood screenwriters. Classics such as Wall Street (1986) and Wolf of Wall Street (2013) have not only grossed millions of dollars world-wide but even managed to convince many viewers into starting their own careers in finance. However, with the rise of streaming services, finance has also taken centre stage for a number of series. Some of the most well-known are the HBO-produced series Billions (2016) and Succession (2018). Today, let's take a look at a few lesser-known, but definitely not inferior series from the world of finance that are simply a must-watch. Devils (Sky, 2020) - a probe into investment bank’s speculation during global crises Produced by Italian broadcaster Sky, Devils is one of the most interesting European series in years. The plot follows Massimo Ruggero, who has risen from rags to riches as a head of the trading desk of the New York London Investment Bank (strikingly reminiscent of Goldman Sachs).   Massimo and his team speculate on the financial markets during the biggest events of the last 12 years. This gives viewers an insight into the behaviour of investment banks during the mortgage crisis, the Greek debt crisis and the Brexit vote, for example. The series is enriched with real time footage of international financial institutions meeting, mixing fiction with reality.   The second season premiered a few months ago and is of equal quality. With the main roles being masterfully played by Alessandro Borghi (known from the Suburra series and the film) and Patrick Dempsey (known from the Surgeons series).     Industry (HBO, 2020) - a series written by the bankers themselves Industry provides a grim and realistic look at what it's like to start a professional career in the financial sector in the heart of London. Here we follow a group of young bankers as they are trying to work their way up to a full-time position at one of London's investment banks, having to navigate this cutthroat and competitive environment as quick as possible.   The series captures well how depressing a given career can be and partially subverts any standards that may have been ingrained by titles such as Wall Street or Billions, taking off the rose-colored glasses of the viewer. Industry simply shows how challenging and competitive a career in finance can be.   As we watch the story of two main protagonists, experiencing their first successes and failures we simply have to wonder - will the desire for success and money prevail, or will the young bankers realise that there is more to life than the pursuit of money? The series, created by two former bankers, has completed its first season, with a second to follow later this year (2022).     Black Monday (Showtime, 2019) - when crisis meets satire   Welcome to the 1980s! A decade full of extravagant hairstyles, clothes and one of the biggest stock market crises in history. We're talking about "Black Monday", a single day in October 1987 during which world stock indices fell by tens of percent. As bleak as it might sound, Black Monday is the most light-hearted series on this list.   The series follows a group of traders from a second-rate Wall Street firm called the Jammer Group and uses satire and fiction to reveal the events that led to the aforementioned stock market crash. Don Cheadle, known from the Avengers franchise, stars in the lead role. The series ended after three seasons, all of which are currently available on HBO.   The Dropout (Hulu, 2022) - based on true events Enron, Worldcom and Theranos. Three of the biggest investor scams in decades. The Dropout series follows the story of Theranos - a company that promised to revolutionize blood testing. Founder Elizabeth Holmes managed to create an aura of success around herself and Theranos, fooling the biggest investment banks and the most famous investors. The company's market capitalization gradually climbed to $9 billion, which was almost unbelievable given the lack of a fully functional product.   The series reveals the rise and fall of the company and its founder, who went from being a female copy of Steve Jobs to an outlaw. However, If you're not too keen on dramatization of real events, we recommend watching the HBO documentary The Inventor: Out for blood in Silicon Valley. It also deals with this topic.   WeCrashed (Apple TV+, 2022) - when the marketing strategy goes too far   Investors who have followed the events of the US stock markets in recent years will immediately know that behind the title of this series lies the story of WeWork, a company that operates a network of co-working offices around the world. However, comparing WeWork to Theranos would be rather harsh, but there are several similarities.   The company's founder, Adam Neumann, has used a great marketing strategy to attract several major investors, most notably Softbank founder Masayoshi Son. Investors then valued the company at a hard-to-believe $47 billion ahead of its planned IPO. As the title of the series suggests, things did not go quite as planned. You can look forward to seeing well-known actors Jared Leto and Anne Hathaway in the lead roles.   Are you tempted by the world of stocks and even more so by shorting them?   At Purple Trading, you now have the opportunity to speculate on the rise and fall of more than 100 of the world's most famous companies and ride the current trend. And if you don’t feel like risking your own money, you can try it with virtual ones on our free demo account.  
Crypto: Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC/USD) - What Do We Learn?

Crypto: Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC/USD) - What Do We Learn?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 15.07.2022 12:08
Another mixed week traders. We started the week with declines that started last weekend and dragged into the week as sellers looked to have taken control. In a positive twist, buyers emerged on Wednesday and stopped the move lower. We saw an average-looking spinner bar that day, but it shifted momentum, and buyers set up a nice day on Thursday with just over 7% added to the top 10 and 7.90% to the top 25. The week centred on the continuing fallout from what’s been dubbed “the Crypto Winter” and the collapses of Three Arrows and Celsius. These two were big players in the industry, and their failures are still sending jitters through the industry. Things look bleak for leaders of TAC, as with last reports suggesting outstanding loans won’t be able to be repaid. Reports also noted the directors of TAC could have gone into hiding. Both were reported by articles on CNBC this week. Continuing to move on with the positive, today we’re seeing price continue its rebound with new two-day highs on the CRYPTO10 and CRYPTO25 indexes. As usual, opinions are divided on whether we will see a new extension lower or if we could be in a technical pause that could turn into a rebound. We are going to break down bitcoin and put forward or ideas on what we would like to see happen, to say yes, we could have a rally or the warning signs that we could see a new extension lower. There is talk from other analysts that Bitcoin could still have to make one more leg lower before it could find a bottom. The general lower price area is seen from 15,000 – 13,000. This is a slightly longer outlook for Bitcoin, but we feel that the current position and pattern is important not only for the next step in BTC but also for Crypto, as we all know that Bitcoin still drives most of the top caps in the market. Incorporating some of the points above about one more leg down this can be seen in the chart with price currently sitting in a consolidation pattern in two downtrends. We can see a triangle around the current consolidation, but we can also see two clear key levels of support and demand holding the current price action. Price has also lined up nicely with a return to the faster downtrend. The OBV also shows a pattern we have seen in the recent declines. And like price the OBV has also returned to its downtrend. So it is rather simple for us, break the triangle and break support. We could be seeing the start of a new extension lower. If buyers can break above resistance and through the fast downtrend, we could be looking at a deeper move higher. The post Crypto Focus: We’re seeing price continue its rebound appeared first on Eightcap.
What Does Inflation Rates We Got To Know Mean To Central Banks?

What Does Inflation Rates We Got To Know Mean To Central Banks?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 13:36
The Swing Overview – Week 28 2022 This week's new record inflation readings sent a clear message to central bankers. Further interest rate hikes must be faster than before. The first of the big banks to take this challenge seriously was the Bank of Canada, which literally shocked the markets with an unprecedented rate hike of a full 1%. This is obviously not good for stocks, which weakened again in the past week. The euro also stumbled and has already fallen below parity with the usd. Uncertainty, on the other hand, favours the US dollar, which has reached new record highs.   Macroeconomic data The data from the US labour market, the so-called NFP, beat expectations, as the US economy created 372 thousand new jobs in June (the expectation was 268 thousand) and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. But on the other hand, unemployment claims continued to rise, reaching 244k last week, the 7th week in a row of increase.   But the crucial news was the inflation data for June. It exceeded expectations and reached a new record of 9.1% on year-on-year basis, the highest value since 1981. Inflation rose by 1.3% on month-on-month basis. Energy prices, which rose by 41.6%, had a major impact on inflation. Declines in commodity prices, such as oil, have not yet influenced June inflation, which may be some positive news. Core inflation excluding food and energy prices rose by 5.9%, down from 6% in May.   The value of inflation was a shock to the markets and the dollar strengthened sharply. We can see this in the dollar index, which has already surpassed 109. We will see how the Fed, which will be deciding on interest rates in less than two weeks, will react to this development. A rate hike of 0.75% is very likely and the question is whether even such an increase will be enough for the markets. Meanwhile, there has been an inversion on the yield curve on US bonds. This means that yields on 2-year bonds are higher than those on 10-year bonds. This is one of the signals of a recession. Figure 1: The US Treasury yield curve on the monthly chart and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index Apart from macroeconomic indicators, the ongoing earnings season will also influence the performance of the indices this month. Among the major banks, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley reported results this week. Both banks reported earnings, but they were below investor expectations. The impact of more expensive funding sources that banks need to finance their activities is probably starting to show.   We must also be interested in the data in China, which, due to the size of the Chinese economy, has an impact on the movement of global indices. 2Q GDP in China was 0.4% on year-on-year basis, a significant drop from the previous quarter (4.8%). Strict lockdowns against new COVID-19 outbreaks had an impact on economic situation in the country. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The threat of a recession is seeping into the SP 500 index with another decline, which stalled last week at the support level, which according to the H4 is in the 3,740-3,750 range. The next support is 3,640 - 3,670.  The nearest resistance is 3,930 - 3,950. German DAX index The German ZEW sentiment, which shows expectations for the next 6 months, reached - 53.8. This is the lowest reading since 2011. Inflation in Germany reached 7.6% in June. This is lower than the previous month when inflation was 7.9%. Concerns about the global recession continue to affect the DAX index, which has tested significant supports. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,500, which was tested again last week. We can take the moving averages EMA 50 and SMA 100 as a resistance. The nearest horizontal resistance is 12,950 - 13,000.   The euro broke parity with the dollar The euro fell below 1.00 on the pair with the dollar for the first time in 20 years, reaching a low of 0.9950 last week. Although the euro eventually closed above parity, so from a technical perspective it is not a valid break yet, the euro's weakening points to the headwinds the eurozone is facing: high inflation, weak growth, the threat in energy commodity supplies, the war in Ukraine. Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart Next week the ECB will be deciding on interest rates and it is obvious that there will be some rate hike. A modest increase of 0.25% has been announced. Taking into account the issues mentioned above, the motivation for the ECB to raise rates by a more significant step will not be very strong. The euro therefore remains under pressure and it is not impossible that a fall below parity will occur again in the near future.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.008 - 1.012. A support is the last low, which is at 0.9950 - 0.9960.   Bank of Canada has pulled out the anti-inflation bazooka Analysts had expected the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 0.75%. Instead, the central bank shocked markets with an unprecedented increase by a full 1%, the highest rate hike in 24 years. The central bank did so in response to inflation, which is the highest in Canada in 40 years. With this jump in rates, the bank is trying to prevent uncontrolled price increases.   The reaction of the Canadian dollar has been interesting. It strengthened significantly immediately after the announcement. However, then it began to weaken sharply. This may be because investors now expect the US Fed to resort to a similarly sharp rate hike. Figure 5: USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart Another reason may be the decline in oil prices, which the Canadian dollar is correlated with, as Canada is a major oil producer. The oil is weakening due to fears of a drop in demand that would accompany an economic recession. Figure 6: Oil on the H4 and daily charts Oil is currently in a downtrend. However, it has reached a support value, which is in the area near $94 per barrel. The support has already been broken, but on the daily chart oil closed above this value. Therefore, it is not a valid break yet.  
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 18.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 18.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.07.2022 14:45
Join us for the penultimate episode of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix, as we look to finish off the month strongly and deliver more expert live market analysis. Watch Ryan Littlestone, market expert, Managing Director, and host of the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and continues to help you to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 20th July 2022! Secure your place to see how an expert prepares for the week’s market activity! Join Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ continues to take control of the Eightcap Trade Zone and provide you with his penultimate mid-week Live Market update of the month. Watch his 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he explores the news and moves, seeks trade ideas, and analyses the market progress since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

How Much Energy Does Proof-of-Stake Crypto Need? ETH/USD Technical Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.07.2022 11:00
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-07-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: The European Central Bank has expressed concerns about the significant carbon footprint of PoW mining, while pointing to a possible ban on such assets. In an article published earlier this week, bank researchers argued that Bitcoin and Ethereum both have a significant carbon footprint. Reportedly, they consume similar amounts of energy every year as medium-sized countries, including Spain and Austia. Experts also talked about Proof-of-Stake. According to the report, a PoS-based cryptocurrency would require as much energy as a small American town with around 2,100 homes. The article notes that the benefits Bitcoin brings to society is "questionable" while blockchain may have potential benefits. Using analogies, ECB experts described PoW as a cryptographic version of fossil fuel cars and PoS as electric vehicles. Blockchains like Ethereum are already working on the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake, where the process is expected to be completed by 2023. Meanwhile, ECB experts believe it is "unlikely" that Bitcoin will soon migrate to PoS. Nevertheless, the article states that the transition to renewable energy requires political and social initiatives regarding energy sources and consumption. According to experts, such decisions would favor certain actions and pose a risk to the value of crypto assets. The report also argued that PoW-based crypto assets are inconsistent with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. Therefore, investors need to research whether investing in specific cryptocurrencies is in line with their ESG investment strategy. This is why Tesla has not accepted Bitcoin as payment for goods and services as of May 2021. According to Elon Musk, the company will resume BTC payments when Bitcoin miners start using more than 50% of green energy for their operations. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had broken above the supply zone located between the levels of $1,255 - $1,281 and made a new local high at the level of $1,462 (at the time of writing the article). The momentum is at the level of 65 points already, so the bulls are now controlling the market. The intraday technical support is seen on the level of $1,319 and $1,281. The larger time frame trend remains down, however the recent breakout might be a beginning of a bigger bounce even towards the level of $1,750.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,617 WR2 - $1,509 WR1 - $1,470 Weekly Pivot - $1,401 WS1 - $1,362 WS2 - $1,294 WS3 - $1,185 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames had broken below the key long term technical support seen at the level of $1,420 and bears continue to make new lower lows with no problem whatsoever. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the levels below $1,000, like the last swing low seen at $880. Please notice, the down trend is being continued for the 13th consecutive week now.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/284844
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 21.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 21.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 21.07.2022 09:42
Join us for the last Trading Week Ahead Live of the month with the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, hosted by Ryan Littlestone. Watch the live stream as Ryan provides you with news updates and market insight from the earlier Asian and early European sessions to help you plan your upcoming trading week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 27th July 2022! Prepare for the week’s market movements with an accomplished industry expert. Tune into the last Eightcap Trade Zone Live Market update of the month. Join us on Wednesday 27th July, at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST) for a 30-45 minute live stream as Ryan delivers his final mid-week update. Reviewing the news, moves, and market progress made since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Crypto: Altcoins - Technical Analysis Of ETH/USD (Ether Price) - 22/07/22 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.07.2022 10:25
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-07-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: Dubai - one of the largest innovation hubs and the host of Expo 2022 is not slowing down in its efforts to become the most open to blockchain country in the world. In a recently published development strategy, Dubai strongly focuses on one of the most popular trends today - the Metaverse. Prince bin Mohammed's roadmap for the coming years aims to set the standard for other countries willing to engage in the development of Web 3.0. Currently, Dubai is home to over 1,000 companies operating in various branches of blockchain technology, which together contribute to the emirate's budget with a significant amount of USD 500 million annually. The ambitious plan assumes that Dubai will achieve three milestones by the end of 2027: 1. Creation of 40,000 new jobs in the blockchain sector, mainly in the development of Metaverse. 2. Increasing the number of companies operating in the crypto sector to at least 5,000. 3. Contribution to the emirate's budget with revenues of $ 4 billion from the cryptocurrency sector. One of the proofs of how seriously Dubai is taking its plans is the announcement of the opening of the world's first Metaverse Hospital. Thanks to the applied 3D and Virtual Reality technologies, patients who are permanently or for a longer period of time in bed will be able to take virtual walks or even participate in sports activities, which is to positively affect the rehabilitation process. According to the assurances of Prince bin Mohammed, Dubai intends to expand its infrastructure and refine its laws and regulations so that investing in this emirate becomes an obvious choice for companies from the blockchain sector. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had paused the rally at the level of $1,631, just ahead of the key short-term technical resistance located at $1,710. The momentum is at the level of 70 points already, so the bulls are now fully controlling the market, however the market conditions are now extremely overbought. The intraday technical support is seen on the level of $1,319 and $1,281. The larger time frame trend remains down, however the recent breakout might be a beginning of a bigger bounce even towards the level of $1,750.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,617 WR2 - $1,509 WR1 - $1,470 Weekly Pivot - $1,401 WS1 - $1,362 WS2 - $1,294 WS3 - $1,185 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames had broken below the key long term technical support seen at the level of $1,420 and bears continue to make new lower lows with no problem whatsoever. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the levels below $1,000, like the last swing low seen at $880. Please notice, the down trend is being continued for the 13th consecutive week now.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/285556
Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) - What Is It? The Merge Explained

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) - What Is It? The Merge Explained | KuCoin

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 05.08.2022 12:25
Table of Contents: · What is Ethereum? · What milestones has Ethereum achieved since its 6th anniversary? · What is the Merge? · Why is the Merge important? · What might happen in the future? · Closing thoughts Ethereum ushered in a new era in blockchain technology. Unlike Bitcoin, which serves as a distributed ledger for peer-to-peer transactions, Ethereum features smart contracts. Smart contracts provide the building blocks for decentralized applications (dApps).   Through dApps, the blockchain went from being just a decentralized, immutable, and transparent ledger to becoming a global network that supports a wide range of use cases. For instance, there are dApps for lending and borrowing cryptocurrencies, gaming, and exchanging tokens, to mention a few.   The Ethereum network primarily supports ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency capitalization. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum currently relies on a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus model to verify transactions. To this end, Ethereum miners that validate transactions get mining rewards.   However, the PoW consensus mechanism has, over the years, come under fire for being energy intensive. Environmentalists argue that PoW mining takes a toll on the climate, especially when miners use fossil fuels to power their rigs.   As a result, Ethereum began transitioning to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model. PoS relies on a user’s stake instead of power. This feature makes it 99% more effective than PoW. By transitioning to PoS, Ethereum seeks to become more sustainable and eco-friendly.   What Milestones Has Ethereum Achieved Since Its 6th Anniversary? Following Ethereum’s sixth anniversary on July 30, 2021, Ethereum has implemented four upgrades on its journey to becoming a PoS blockchain. These are London, Altair, Arrow Glacier, and Gray Glacier.   London came first on August 5, 2021 on block number 12,965,000. This upgrade introduced EIP-1559, which changed the transaction pricing mechanism to include a fixed per-block fee, which the network burns. This pricing mechanism also expands or contracts block sizes to deal with congestion, thus increasing mining speed.   Altair was the first scheduled upgrade for Ethereum’s Beacon Chain, and it shipped on October 29, 2021. This fork added support for sync communities. It enabled light clients, which helped reduce the overhead needed to determine the head of the chain, thus increasing the network’s decentralization.   Arrow Glacier shipped on December 9, 2021. This upgrade postponed Ethereum’s difficulty bomb for several months, offering developers more time to develop ETH 2.0. The difficulty bomb forces the Ethereum PoW network to stop issuing blocks, making mining disadvantageous for miners and discouraging network users from using the PoW mining when the network switches to PoS.   Gray Glacier shipped on June 30, 2022, and it delayed the difficulty bomb by three months.   In between the upgrades, ETH recorded a significant milestone in its price history. On November 16, ETH set a new all-time high (ATH) of $4,891.   Additionally, the number of unique Ethereum addresses soared from 164.73 million to 201.37 million as of July 21. This denotes an average growth rate of 144.1 million.   What is the Merge? The Merge is the most significant update in Ethereum’s history. This upgrade represents when Ethereum will transition to a PoS network. Following this upgrade, the current Ethereum mainnet will merge with its new PoS consensus layer, dubbed the Beacon Chain.   The Beacon Chain shipped separately from the Ethereum mainnet in December 2020. Since then, it has been running parallel to the mainnet as a different blockchain network. This means the Beacon Chain has not been recording mainnet transactions. Instead, it reaches a consensus by agreeing on active validators and their account balances.   Why is the Merge Important？ When the Merge ships, the Ethereum mainnet and Beacon Chain will become one, marking Ethereum’s transition to a PoS model. The update is expected to ship in Q3 or Q4 2022. Ethereum has carried out extensive testing to ensure the network seamlessly transitions to PoS when the Merge ships.   After the Merge, the Beacon Chain will become Ethereum’s consensus engine. This means the role of generating valid blocks will shift from miners to PoS validators.   It is worth noting that Ethereum’s history will remain intact even after the Beacon Chain becomes the consensus engine. As such, ETH holders don’t need to worry about funds disappearing from their wallets after the network shifts to PoS.   What Might Happen in the Future? After the Merge, Ethereum’s developers plan to continue developing the network until it is powerful enough to help all of humanity. According to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, the Merge would only make Ethereum 55% complete.   The network’s future upgrades include, but are not limited to, a four-part fork that developers have dubbed “surge, verge, purge, and splurge.” This upgrade is set to introduce more security and decentralization to Ethereum after it shifts to a PoS model.   Buterin believes the end of Ethereum’s roadmap will result in a more scalable blockchain network. He projects that Ethereum should be able to complete 100,000 transactions per second by the end of its development journey. This will be a massive milestone for the blockchain, which currently processes about 15 transactions per second.   Closing Thoughts By transitioning to PoS, Ethereum will undergo significant changes. While scalability comes as a perk, Ethereum will become less decentralized, meaning the network’s security will also take a hit. However, by embracing careful design choices, Ethereum can minimize the impact of drifting from what it initially set out to become; a decentralized and open blockchain network.   Find The Next Crypto Gem On KuCoin! Download KuCoin App>>> Sign up on KuCoin now>>> Follow us on Twitter>>> Join us on Telegram>>> Join the KuCoin Global Communities>>> Subscribe to YouTube Channel>>> Source: Ethereum Celebrates Its Seventh Anniversary And the Coming Merge| KuCoin
Kucoin: Wrapped Tokens (i.a. WBTC, WETH) Explained

Kucoin: Wrapped Tokens (i.a. WBTC, WETH) Explained

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 05.08.2022 14:02
Table of Contents: What is a wrapped token? How do wrapped tokens work? Examples of wrapped tokens Wrapped tokens on Ethereum Benefits of using wrapped tokens Deposit, Withdraw & Trade Wrapped Tokens Closing thoughts Decentralized finance (DeFi) is rapidly disrupting the financial sector by offering trustless banking. However, it also faces multiple challenges that hinder its mass adoption. At the moment, one of the most significant obstacles is insufficient liquidity.   For instance, Bitcoin (BTC) has the largest market cap in the crypto market - (around $420 billion). However, its blockchain does not support smart contracts and hence does not support DeFi. On the other hand, the Ethereum blockchain supports the highest number of DeFi protocols. Nonetheless, the market cap of its native token, ETH, currently sits at $186 billion.   With DeFi relying on users to provide liquidity, it is imperative to have cross-chain interoperability, a necessity that has proven a tough nut to crack.   Thus far, efforts to make blockchain networks interoperable have seen developers create wrapped tokens. These tokens can function on different blockchain networks, introducing some aspect of cross-chain interoperability.   What is a Wrapped Token? A wrapped token is a cryptocurrency pegged to another cryptocurrency in a 1:1 ratio. Simply put, the price of the wrapped token always equals that of the underlying coin. To this end, wrapped token holders can redeem them for the original asset at any given time.   The wrapped token and the original token run on different blockchains, with the prior running on blockchains that support DeFi. This feature ensures that wrapped tokens create a bridge between incompatible blockchain networks. Consequently, this interoperability helps introduce more liquidity to DeFi protocols, boosting the utility of cryptocurrencies.   How Do Wrapped Tokens Work? To get wrapped tokens, users can create them by wrapping them on their own or purchasing them from centralized or decentralized crypto exchanges.   Wrapping tokens involves finding merchants for a specific token and transferring the tokens to them. The merchants then transfer the digital assets to a custodian who mints their wrapped versions in a 1:1 ratio and stores the underlying tokens in a digital vault.   After putting their wrapped tokens to use, a user can redeem them by requesting the merchant to send the custodian a burning request for a given amount of the tokens. Finally, the custodian destroys the wrapped tokens and returns the original assets to the user.   The custodian records all minting and burning transactions on-chain for transparency, ensuring that wrapped tokens always maintain their 1:1 peg to the underlying asset.   Examples of Wrapped Tokens The need to bridge the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks saw developers team up to create wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC), an ERC-20 version of BTC. wBTC is the most popular wrapped token and is currently the 18th-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, with a market cap of over $5 billion. Needless to say, wBTC is the largest wrapped token.   The second largest wrapped token is renBTC, an ERC-20 token, which is part of the Ren Protocol. renBTC has a market cap of over $80 million. renBTC serves the same purpose as wBTC.   Wrapped NXM (wNXM) is the third-largest wrapped token by market capitalization. The token allows users to trade NXM, the native token of the Nexus Mutual platform, outside the protocol.   There are over 20 wrapped tokens in the crypto market, and they have a market cap of $5.31 billion.   Wrapped Tokens on Ethereum An interesting example of a wrapped token on Ethereum is wrapped Ethereum (wETH). Although creating a wrapped version of ETH seems to defy logic, it is worth noting ETH arrived before the network introduced the ERC-20 standard for issuing tokens. As such, ETH is not ERC-20 compliant.   To this end, developers created wrapped Ethereum (wETH) to simplify using ETH in DeFi. With the bulk of DeFi activity being on Ethereum, most dApps require users to swap ETH with ERC-20 tokens, and wETH streamlines this process.   Other wrapped tokens on Ethereum include wBTC, wNXM, wDGLD, and wCRO, among other ERC-20-compliant tokens that run on blockchains other than Ethereum.   Benefits of Using Wrapped Tokens Wrapped tokens increase the utility of cryptocurrencies by expanding the number of blockchains they can run on. As utility increases, the value of crypto networks rises, helping to expedite the maturity of the nascent asset class.   Through wrapped tokens, crypto holders can put their digital assets to use by lending them out through DeFi protocols to earn interest. Crypto holders can also stake the tokens and provide the DeFi sector with liquidity. In return, DeFi protocols offer stakers high yields.   Wrapped tokens also help minimize the transaction costs and times. For instance, using a wrapped version of BTC on a scalable blockchain network would significantly cut costs and ensure faster transaction times.   How to Deposit, Withdraw & Trade Wrapped Tokens Deposit and withdrawal functions are available from exchanges that support the wrapped tokens. For instance, KuCoin supports some wrapped tokens deposit and withdrawal, such as WBTC.   ​​In general, a wrapped token may not have a separate trading pair. For the purpose of consolidating liquidity, centralized exchanges will credit tokens based on different blockchains as its native token, similar to USDT on Tron and Ethereum are both credited as USDT. However, there are exceptions like WBTC, which has separate trading pairs like WBTC/BTC.   Closing Thoughts Wrapped tokens play a significant role in creating bridges between various blockchains. Furthermore, this interoperability helps provide DeFi and the broader crypto space with ample liquidity because networks can easily share the amount of capital locked in them.   Although wrapped tokens currently run on the centralized models, which require users to trust merchants and custodians, the future might present completely trustless options, helping the crypto space put the power back in users’ hands.   Find The Next Crypto Gem On KuCoin! Download KuCoin App>>> Sign up on KuCoin now>>> Follow us on Twitter>>> Join us on Telegram>>> Join the KuCoin Global Communities>>> Subscribe to YouTube Channel>>> Source: What Are Wrapped Tokens and How Do They Work?| KuCoin
What Could Boost ETH/USD!? Ethereum - The Merge Is Close! US: Shocking Unemployment Rate. In The Past Month S&P 500 And Nasdaq Increased

What Could Boost ETH/USD!? Ethereum - The Merge Is Close! US: Shocking Unemployment Rate. In The Past Month S&P 500 And Nasdaq Increased

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 08.08.2022 10:29
Strong US jobs data revived the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks on Friday. The US 10-year yield jumped, and the US dollar gained. Gold gave back a part of gains, and US stocks closed in the negative, although the three major US indices closed the first week of August in the positive. S&P 500   Now, the S&P500 is nearing an important technical level near 4180 level, the peak reached in June, and the short-term direction will mostly depend on this week’s inflation data, due Wednesday. Crude oil kicks off the week slightly upbeat, below the $90 level. News that China started mass testing in the Hainan beach resort comes as a warning that China is still not done with its fight against Covid.    Crude Oil Last week, OPEC increased the production outlook by a laughable, and a completely meaningless 100’000 barrels per day. That’s about 0.1% of the global oil output. But the recession fears and the slowing demand will likely continue driving the market; we could see a further downside pressure on oil prices. On corporate front, Coinbase, Disney, Honda, Coupang, and Rivian will be revealing their latest quarterly earnings. On political front, the US Senate passed a landmark tax, climate and health-care bill, which includes tax credits for EV purchases & green energy incentives. In cryptocurrencies, Ethereum prepares for its final test before the Merge update! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 Confusingly strong NFP data 3:23 Why the markets rallied in July? 4:54 Inflation is key for direction 5:55 Crude oil under pressure 7:01 Earnings calendar 7:20 US Senate passes bill to support EV & green energy 8:33 Ethereum’s final test before Merge update Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #NFP #Fed #hawks #USD #XAU #Gold #inflation #data #crude #oil #Coinbase #Honda #Coupang #Rivian #earnings #US #climate #bill #Tesla #green #energy #Ethereum #Merge #test #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Could ETH/USD Reach $2800!? Crypto Prices - What's The Difference Between Ethereum And Bitcoin?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2022 13:13
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum remains the main conductor of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has been showing a steady upward movement that has been going on for five weeks in a row. At the same time, it is important to note that over the past three weeks, a negative downward trend in buying activity has formed. This is displayed on the body of a bullish candle, which closed at parity between buyers and sellers between August 1 and 7. It is likely that after a period of a long upward movement, the asset will need a correction.     Unlike the situation with BTC, Ethereum's on-chain metrics point to a strong upward trend foundation. The number of unique addresses in the asset network continues to grow, and the fall over the weekend was not significant. This suggests that retail investors are actively participating in trading on the ETH network. This is partly due to the general hype around the coin, but to a greater extent, it is the merit of the fallen commissions in the cryptocurrency network.     The main difference between ETH on-chain metrics and BTC metrics is that the trading activity in the network of the main altcoin remains at a high level. The growing number of unique addresses in the cryptocurrency network is underpinned by a steady increase in intraday trading volumes. Therefore, the upward trend of the ether is more stable and justified. This is exactly what we see on the weekly timeframe, where the price has been continuously rising for five weeks.     Another important signal for the continuation of the upward movement of Ethereum is the completion of the "cup and handle" pattern. The asset managed to break through the $1700 level and thus complete the formation of the pattern. If the current market situation persists, the potential for the upward movement of Ethereum reaches the level of $2800. However, there is a possibility that before the pattern is realized, ETH/USD will go to a local correction.     If you look at the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency on the daily chart, you can see that dangerous borders are being reached. The RSI index ended the previous trading week above the level of 60 and continues its upward movement. The stochastic oscillator reached 80 in the previous week. As of August 8, the metric formed another bullish crossover above 80, which is a sign of overheating of the Ethereum market.     Given the readings of the main metrics, we can conclude that the asset has reached or is approaching the overbought state. This usually happens when the metrics are above 80. However, in the case of Ethereum, it is also important to consider the asset's significantly increased inflation rate due to the influx of users and low transaction fees.     Considering the options for a possible correction in ETH/USD, several targets need to be identified. The first target is located at the level of $1600, and taking into account the minimum amount of time that the asset spent here, this milestone will be broken. The next target is the range of $1400–$1450, and judging by the long period of consolidation, this is where the main stage of the correction will end.     However, it is important to take into account external factors, including the dynamics of the movement of BTC, stock indices, and macroeconomic events. Taking this into account, it is not possible to suggest a probable level of completion of the correction. But there is no doubt that the ether needs a pause to maintain the current trend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318304
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

Altcoins: ETH/USD Chart Shows Impressive Levels! How Many Transaction Per Second Would Ethereum Handle?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.08.2022 12:39
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. With each passing week, Ethereum is getting closer and closer to the key mark of $2000. Despite a certain decrease in buying activity and the realization of most of the bullish potential, Ethereum continues to maintain leadership among the major cryptocurrencies. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has risen in price by 2%, and the weekly increase was 11%. At the same time, the ether approached the lower border of the $1800–$2100 resistance area. The asset will have a serious trade in this range, which will certainly lead to increased volatility and wandering between support and resistance zones.     The main catalyst for the upward movement of the altcoin is the institutional audience, actively fed by the representatives of the project with rosy promises. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that after the transition of the ether to the PoS algorithm, the popularity of crypto payments can grow significantly. The entrepreneur attributes this to the improvement in transaction per second throughput since the final Ethereum upgrade. Buterin is sure that the main altcoin can process more than 100,000 transactions per second. This was big news, which strengthened the position of Ethereum in the eyes of institutional players.     The current position of Bitcoin is also one of the reasons for the increased interest in Ethereum. The main cryptocurrency is stuck near the $24k level and cannot overcome it, also due to low trading volumes. Institutions are also well aware of the dependence of BTC on inflation and stock indices. The combination of these factors makes Bitcoin less attractive to big capital, as the asset does not have the fundamental support for a meaningful bullish rally. The transition to PoS is the very ETH argument that allows the asset to win the competition in terms of attractiveness from Bitcoin at the current stage.     The Ethereum update also provokes far-reaching and positive forecasts from the main representatives of the crypto industry. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that by the end of the first quarter of 2023, ETH/USD will reach $5000. In addition to switching to PoS, Hayes highlights the Fed's monetary easing as the main benefit of the altcoin. The entrepreneur is confident that after the PoS update, Ethereum will temporarily take the place of Bitcoin in terms of investment attractiveness. Hence, the conclusion that easing monetary policy will have a better effect on ETH, not BTC.     To develop Hayes' idea, it is worth adding two important theses that allow us to argue that Ethereum will go up in the fall. The first factor concerns the US elections in November. The government will probably try to create an appropriate economic climate. The technical recession of the economy due to the hawkish policy of the Fed clearly does not apply here. The second factor is based on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that the rate will reach a neutral level by the end of 2022. Given these two factors, it is likely that following the final migration of the network and the transition of dApps to PoS algorithms, Ethereum will receive investment fuel from the US government.     In technical terms, the asset took a break after an unsuccessful assault on $1800. The bears defended the level and pushed the buyers to the nearest support at $1750. The RSI index and the stochastic oscillator are becoming flat, which indicates the need for local consolidation. There is also pressure coming from Bitcoin, which failed its $24k assault. The combination of these factors indicates that the next stage of strong growth will begin after the publication of the CPI report. Until then, the asset is likely to continue consolidating.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318420
Eurozone PMI Shows Limited Improvement Amid Lingering Contraction Concerns in September

Ethereum: What Did Help ETH/USD To rise? We're Talking About A 12% Rise!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.08.2022 13:14
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. As expected, Ethereum became the primary beneficiary of fundamental positive news. The cryptocurrency took advantage of the general euphoria and rose by 12% over the past day. The weekly increase in ETH/USD quotes reached 15.5%. The main altcoin finally consolidated above the $1800 level and rapidly jumped to the $1900 mark. It is likely that if the current bullish momentum continues, ETH will be able to reach the $2000 level for the first time since May 2022.     Ethereum continues its upward movement, taking advantage of positive inflation statistics, which fell below expectations to 8.5%. A gradual decrease in inflation in annual terms indicates the likelihood of curtailing aggressive monetary policy as early as autumn 2022. It is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market since, after tightening, a pullback to neutral positions will begin. This process will facilitate access to liquidity and, accordingly, will help the birth of a bullish rally. However, in most cases, the main benefit from monetary easing is given to Bitcoin.     In the current market situation, everything has changed dramatically. Bitcoin is fading into the background, and Ethereum is becoming the main driving force behind the cryptocurrency market. The main altcoin has been the main investment target of large funds over the past months. This is due to the transition of the coin to the PoS algorithm and the positive changes that will follow. In other words, Ethereum has fundamental growth reasons that provide continued investment interest. Bitcoin cannot boast of this, and therefore grows exclusively on positive fundamental news.     The growing interest in Ethereum can be seen in the level of Bitcoin dominance in the market. The indicator is in a downward trend, indicating the interest of investors in other digital coins. The indicator began to seriously decline at the end of July and peaked in August. During this period, the informational hype around the transition of Ethereum to PoS reached its maximum. Over the same period, the level of ETH dominance has grown significantly and, as of August 11, reached 20.24%. This is direct evidence of the flow of investments from BTC to ETH.     It also indirectly indicates that the main altcoin will become the primary investment target of the market in the coming weeks. Ethereum received macroeconomic positives in addition to the upcoming update, which will also affect the bullish movement of the cryptocurrency price. The largest issuers of stablecoins, Tether and Circle, have declared full support for the transition of ETH to the Proof-of-Stake protocol. There are also several testnet mergers planned for August, including the successful migration of Goerli to PoS, which should reinforce the fundamental positive for ETH.     In technical terms, the asset has again reached the overbought level. The stochastic oscillator formed and realized a bullish crossover, due to which the indicator reached the level of 100. The relative strength index came close to 80 and maintains an upward direction, which indicates an increase in buying activity. Ethereum entered a strong resistance area for the first time, and you should not expect its bullish breakdown on the first try. Most likely, we are waiting for a local correction and a short period of consolidation before a full-fledged assault on $2000.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318679
EURUSD Short-Term Trend: Bearish Channel Persists with Potential Bottom Ahead

S&P 500 Gained 2.1% Yesterday, Bitcoin Increased By Over 3%, Nasdaq Added 2.9% - Yesterday's US CPI Print Helped Various Assets

Daniel Kostecki Daniel Kostecki 11.08.2022 14:11
Yesterday, the US inflation report was released, which came in at 8.5% in July. The market did not expect such a large drop, estimating a level of 8.7% before the data was released. The stock markets reacted positively, and the major equity indexes rose significantly. The S&P 500 gained more than 2.1% during yesterday's session and the Nasdaq almost 2.9%. Bitcoin And Ethereum Cryptocurrencies, however, reacted most noticeably - on the Conotoxia MT5 platform, Bitcoin gained around 3.3% yesterday. And today, it continues its rise, breaking through the local peak of $2,485 on 30 August 2022. At 11.30 am GMT+3, the price of BTC is $24,471. The ETH price has risen even more strongly after a surprisingly low inflation reading. Ethereum gained more than 8.5% yesterday, and at 11.30 GMT+3, it is already up more than 2.3%. The token already costs $1,887 - its highest recorded level since 6 June this year. Reaction The market's reaction has a lot to do with expectations of interest rate hikes, which fell after the US inflation reading. However, it is still a long way from calling it a permanent decline. Inflation is still at its highest level in decades and the economy is operating in an environment of negative real interest rates. According to CME Group data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to push rates even higher. Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is at just 2.5 pp, the level before the Covid pandemic. The CME Group estimates that we will still reach the 3.25 pp level this year, and peak in 2023 at 3.5 pp. However, as for the 2023 projections. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides them, is already much less unanimous and a lot may still depend on the information coming out of the economy. US Economy - Most metrics - such as the yield curve, consumer sentiment, and economic growth - point to a recession Information on its state in the US is not pleasing. Most metrics - such as the yield curve, consumer sentiment, and economic growth - point to a recession. The labour market, which is surprisingly strong at the moment, is reacting last and is likely to become further evidence of a crisis soon. The cryptocurrency market has never been in such a severe recession, so it is hard to determine exactly how it will behave. For now, the data shows a relatively high level of correlation between it and the stock market. This is not good news, as the latter almost always loses in a crash. Polygon (MATIC) Polygon (MATIC) is an Ethereum token that powers the Polygon network, which is a protocol for building Ethereum-compatible blockchains and decentralised applications (DApps). Polygon is also referred to as a 2nd level (2nd level) solution to help Ethereum to scale faster, by increasing the efficiency of the network. On Wednesday, Polygon shared data on user growth. Their total number in July was 11,800, gaining 47.5% since March and up 400% year-to-date. Interestingly, according to the project, "74% of teams integrated exclusively on Polygon, while 26% deployed on both Polygon and Ethereum,". This shows a very high level of confidence in the new technology, which can be the new foundation for the development of DApps. Since the local low on 19 July this year. MATIC has risen almost 172%. Trading on CFDs is provided by Conotoxia Ltd. (CySEC no. 336/17). CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

ETH Steals The Show! Ethereum Price (ETH/USD) Gradually Moves To $2K Level. BlackRock Capital Has Started A BTC Fund!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.08.2022 14:18
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum is getting closer to the key resistance level of $2,000 every day. It is important to reach this psychological level during the ongoing uptrend. Institutional investors add fuel to the growth. Their inflow has increased significantly amid the transition of ETH to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm and the recent news.     The ETH/USD pair has fixed above $1,800 and formed a strong support area near that level. After forming the bullish engulfing pattern on August 10, the asset dashed to the level of $1,950 but rolled back because of the bearish activity. As a result, bulls were forced to retreat and the candlestick acquired a long upper shadow. Nevertheless, ETH is holding above $1,850, and as long as this level is not broken through, the asset may reach the area of $1,900-$2,000.     Eventually, ETH formed a bullish large-scale cup-and-handle pattern. This pattern may drag the price to the area of $2,700-$2,800. Taking into account the presence of the fundamental positive background and the successful mergers of the test ether networks, it is likely that the cup and handle pattern will be worked out by the middle of September. With this in mind, we can conclude that it is Ethereum that will be the main driving force of the crypto market during the next few months.     As for the technical picture, the asset started a consolidation after failing to touch the area of $1,950-$2,000. The RSI is moving near 70, indicating high buying activity. However, after testing 70, the metric has flattened. The stochastic oscillator managed to break through the level of 70 and enter the overbought zone. This means the asset is overbought and this state will increase with the positive sentiment in the market. The MACD indicator has gained an upward direction after a long flat period. As a whole, from the technical point of view, ether demonstrates the demand but prepares for a correction.     Most likely, this is where the market will face the first full-fledged correction due to the long upward movement. On the weekly chart, the ETH/USD pair is likely to close the sixth bullish week. If we compare it to the cryptocurrency's recent uptrends, we see that for the most part, the altcoin goes for a correction after forming six or seven green candlesticks in a row. Ethereum is close to the sixth one and we are likely to see a correction already next week.     Dependence on Bitcoin may hamper the cryptocurrency's uptrend. In recent months, the level of BTC dominance was falling, while ETH, on the contrary, was growing. Mostly, it was due to the Fed policy and the presence of fundamental reasons for the growth of ether. It is likely that soon the situation will change since the rate of inflation began to fall.     Investments in BTC will gradually begin to increase, which will be a deterrent to the growth of ETH. Among the latest news related to these processes is the announcement of the BlackRock Capital fund. The largest $10 trillion asset management company has launched a new BTC fund for its clients. In the medium to long term, this bodes well for a significant increase in institutional investments in Bitcoin.     All of these factors can negatively contribute to the future growth of Ethereum, but they have no fundamental effect. With this in mind, Ethereum is very likely to remain the main cryptocurrency in the coming months. However, in the short term, we should expect a correction, which the altcoin needs after a prolonged six-week rally.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318802
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

When Is The Ethereum Merge Introduced? This Update Is A Crypto Market Changer!

Daniel Kostecki Daniel Kostecki 12.08.2022 14:58
How will the upcoming Ethereum Merge affect linked tokens?  After long years of preparation, Ethereum will soon become a token operating fully on the Proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. So far, no delays are expected for the Merge, which is scheduled for 19 September. In addition to ETH, many other tokens are gaining in utility and price through the upcoming transition, which will enable them to be more widely and quickly adopted. Ethereum's plan is to replace ETH miners with validators, a kind of 'node' of the proof-of-stake system. They will be responsible for storing data, processing transactions and adding more chain blocks. Each validator is expected to hold a min. 32 ETH - at the current price, this is approximately $60600. Lido Dao  An important part of this network is to be the Lido DAO, which is the main project offering staking services within Merge. So far, Lido has funded ETH 2.0 with approximately 4.15 million ETH. Since the local bottom on 18 June 2022. LDO has gained almost 530%.    Source: Glassnode Accounting for almost half of the staking on ETH, the Lido is an important part of the chain with great growth potential if the trend in this service adoption continues. However, currently after surging 500%, the price may be too high and a great deal of caution is advised for bulls.  Ethereum Classic (ETC) Despite the transformation, Ethereum Classic (ETC) is still an important part of the crypto scene. The token was created as a result of a split of the Ethereum blockchain in 2016 and has most of the functionality of the current ETH, but is slower in handling transfers and less flexible in creating DApps. However, it still plays a significant role and is considered by traditionalists to be a combination of the best features of Bitcoin and ETH.  The token through its reliance on mining provides a natural refuge for miners who will be excluded by the Ethereum blockchain change. This is probably why it has gained more than 215% in recent weeks since its local low on 14 July.  The influx of miners is bound to have an impact on the increased supply of ETC in the short to medium term, which typically drives the price down. However, with a maximum of 210.7 million coins to be mined, ETC is deflationary in nature, and the market seems to be pricing that increased mining will translate into a faster increase in the token's price due to limited future supply. ETC, like BTC, mainly has been used as a store of value. Merge will have an impact on the entire crypto world. It surpasses the ETH split of 2016 by its scale and points to new areas such as proof-of-stake, energy efficiency and lower commissions. The transformation in addition to the above-mentioned LDO, ETC affects most ETH-related projects giving some new significance.   
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

Crypto: (ETH) Ethereum's Success. Better Than (BTC) Bitcoin?

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 16.08.2022 09:01
Summary:  The last test of the highly anticipated Ethereum merge was a success. The real merge has now been scheduled for either the 15th or 16th of September. Whereas the latter was a success, Coinbase’s Q2 result was arguably not a success compared to the market’s consensus. The Ethereum merge has been scheduled following the final test On Thursday, the final public test of the highly anticipated Ethereum merge occurred successfully as the test network known as Görli successfully adopted a proof-of-stake framework. One day later, the developers of Ethereum announced that the real merge is likely to take place on either the 15th or 16th of September next month. This is in line with what we estimated earlier this month, assigning a 95% chance of a merge in September in case Görli occurred flawlessly, as it did. This means that one of the most significant events in the history of crypto is only around a month away. It seems that traders are likewise anticipating the merge. Ethereum hit a local high against Bitcoin since January of 0.0816 (ETHBTC) this weekend alongside hitting a new 3-month high in dollar terms of over $2,000. This is rather remarkable because Ethereum has previously decreased against Bitcoin during bear markets with Bitcoin behaving somewhat as a safe haven within the highly speculative crypto market. At present, the pair trades at 0.0793. Coinbase releases Q2 2022 result On Tuesday, the largest US-based crypto exchange NASDAQ-listed Coinbase reported its second quarter result. The result was, however, not encouraging for shareholders. The company’s revenue declined by nearly 64% compared to the same quarter last year, while the company noted a loss accurately exceeding $1bn. Yet, $377mn of that was caused by depreciating its crypto holdings, with the latter taking a severe hit during the quarter. Coinbase laid off around 18% of its workforce in Q2 while enforcing a hiring freeze. The major issue for Coinbase in Q2 and not least going forward is the fact that its retail trading has decreased substantially, although its volume from institutional clients is fairly more stable. The challenge with the latter is that Coinbase earns significantly less on institutional rather than retail trading. As a consequence, institutional clients’ volume is over three times as much but pays overall 15 times less in trading fees than retail clients. So, unless retail trading surges, the fundamental of Coinbase is likely not improving. Making matters worse, Coinbase is encountering further competition on retail trading from, for instance, Robinhood, potentially over time pushing Coinbase’s high margins on retail trading down. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. Alongside 21 other companies, Coinbase is a part of our Crypto & Blockchain equity basket for investors wanting to get exposure to the crypto market through crypto-related companies (the basket should not be considered as a trade recommendation, only as an inspirational list). Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Source: Crypto Weekly: Ethereum, it is time to merge
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

Ethereum Price (ETH/USD) - Technical Analysis | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2022 10:19
Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: On August 11, 2022, Ethereum developers notified the community during the Consensus Layer Call live stream that the Merge update is likely to occur between September 15-16. The next day, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin confirmed that The Merge is likely to take place on September 15th. Since then, everyone has been asking where the current Ethereum hashrate will go after the update goes live. There has always been a lot of speculation that most of the ETH hashrates will be redirected to Ethereum Classic (ETC), however this is not the only opinion. There was one significant drop in ETH network hashrate that started on June 6. Statistics show that on that day 1.23 petahashas per second (PH /s) or 1,230 terahashas per second (TH /s) was dedicated to the Ethereum network. The data shows that around 230 TH /s have left the network, but none of the chains supporting Ethash have recorded hashrate accumulation on such a scale. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has hit the level of $1,990, which is the 100% Fibonacci extension of the wave A. The local high was made at the level of $2,029, nevertheless the upside is limited due to the key technical resistance located at the level of $2,040. The momentum had violated the level of fifty already and it points to the south indicating a strong bearish activity. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,915 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located lower, between the levels of $1,785 - $1,756.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,132 WR2 - $2,042 WR1 - $1,986 Weekly Pivot - $1,953 WS1 - $1,897 WS2 - $1,864 WS3 - $1,775 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next key psychological level for bulls is located at $2,000 and needs to be clearly violated before any extension higher.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/288599
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) Is Getting Closer And Closer To The Merge!

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 16.08.2022 11:47
ETH options open interest at a high as traders pile on leveraged bets. Asset managers’ net-long position in CME BTC futures climbing. ETH enters short-term overbought territory Chart of the Week: In the Mood for Leveraged Bets ETH options open interest has reached a new high at around US$8B. Options are a leveraged play on ETH and traders are likely piling up the bets in anticipation of the mainnet merge in September. Last week, the final testnet merge, Goerli, was successfully completed, giving traders an extra confidence boost.     Fund Flow Tracker No significant movements in aggregated exchange balances for both BTC and ETH over the past week.         Derivatives Pulse Implied vols and skews (puts minus calls) are subdued. 1-week implied vol currently stands at 58.7% (vs. 63.1% a week ago) and 84.8% (vs. 91.9% a week ago) for BTC and ETH, respectively. Put-call ratios remain at low levels.                     Perpetual futures funding rates remain mainly in positive territory for both BTC and ETH over the past week.         Asset managers’ net-long position in CME Bitcoin futures continues to crawl up, and leveraged traders’ net-short position keeps on reducing. Other reportables’ (which includes corporate treasuries) net-long position has flipped to net-short.     Leveraged traders are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including commodity trading advisors and commodity pool operators. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading, and trading on behalf of speculative clients. The asset manager category consists of institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds, and those portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional. The dealer category consists of participants typically described as the “sell-side” of the market. These include large banks and dealers in securities, swaps, and other derivatives. The other reportable category consists of traders mostly using markets to hedge business risk, and includes amongst others corporate treasuries. Technically Speaking BTC and ETH both have momentum in their sails, reclaiming key levels US$24K and US$2K, respectively. However, the surge has driven ETH into short-term overbought territory based on the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), with BTC closing in as well.     Price Movements         News Highlights Ethereum’s final testnet merge on Goerli was launched. Crypto.com obtains Electronic Financial Transactions Act and Virtual Asset Service Provider registration in South Korea by acquiring PnLink Co., Ltd and OK-BIT Co., Ltd. Coinbase’s credit rating gets cut by S&P to BB from BB+. BlackRock launches a spot Bitcoin private trust for U.S. institutional clients. Catalyst Calendar             Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters    Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET PULSE MARKET UPDATES
"Ethereum remains highly attractive for investors, and interest in it will grow even more after the move to PoS"

"Ethereum remains highly attractive for investors, and interest in it will grow even more after the move to PoS"

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.08.2022 10:21
Market picture Bitcoin is losing 3.7% in the past 24 hours, falling to $23.9K%. Ethereum is down 5.2% to $1870. Other top altcoins are down 2% (BNB) to 6.4% (Solana). Total capitalisation of the crypto market The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 3.6% to $1.14 trillion overnight. Bitcoin on Monday failed to claw its way above $25K, after which short-term buyers rushed to lock in profits and returned the price to the $24K area. The pressure on BTC was exerted by the rising US dollar amid weak data from China, indicating a slowdown in the economy. However, so far, Bitcoin's decline is more appropriately seen as a corrective pullback within an uptrend. It would only be appropriate to discuss a break in this trend if it moves below $22.5K-23.0K. Sluggish and uncertain growth at the first stages is typical after a strong sell-off that prevailed since last October. News background Notably, the positive dynamics of the crypto market last week coincided with a net $17 million outflow, the first net withdrawal in seven weeks, of which $21 million came from investments in BTC. At the same time, investments in bitcoin short funds increased by $2.6 million. The Wall Street Journal reports that US pension funds remain optimistic about investing in cryptocurrencies, despite a significant pullback in prices and a wave of defaults by crypto companies. Raul Pal -- Real Vision CEO -- believes that Ethereum remains highly attractive for investors, and interest in it will grow even more after the move to PoS. Michael Saylor: BTC is not suitable for everyone, "you should invest for at least four years. Ideally, it's an intergenerational transfer of wealth." Michael Saylor, former head of MicroStrategy, called the company's decision to buy bitcoin a good one. He said, BTC is not suitable for everyone, "you should invest for at least four years. Ideally, it's an intergenerational transfer of wealth."
Maker DAO launched Spark Protocol. SushiSwap rolled out its v3 concentrated liquidity pools

Crypto: Acala Was Attacked. Exploit Made aUSD Price (Acala's Stablecoin) To Decrease

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 17.08.2022 13:19
Acala Network suffered security breach, aUSD depegged. Curve Finance’s website hacked. Crypto users were hit with “dust attack” after being sent a small amount of ETH from Tornado Cash. Weekly DeFi Index This week’s price index dropped by -7.26%, while volume and volatility indices were positive at +11.26% and +3.16%, respectively.     DeFi Index Tokens     News Highlight Acala, the “DeFi hub” of the Polkadot network, suffered a major security breach. The exploit allowed the attackers to mint an additional 1.2 billion aUSD, the native stablecoin of the network, in its iBTC/aUSD liquidity pool. Following the exploit, aUSD depegged and plunged to a low of US$0.009 on 14 August. In response to the incident, Acala passed a proposal to burn US$1.28 billion aUSD to regain the peg. At the time of writing, aUSD is trading around US$0.88.  Decentralised exchange Curve Finance experienced a frontend attack on 10 August. Hackers compromised the Curve website to redirect unwitting users or their transactions to a malicious destination. The thieves made off with US$570,000 of ETH and part of the stolen funds were frozen. DeFi protocols banned users following OFAC sanctions on Tornado Cash. However, this derives a so-called ‘dust attack’. Crypto users reported being blocked by major DeFi protocols after attackers sent a small amount of Ether (usually 0.01 ETH) via Tornado Cash. More than 600 addresses were hit with the same 0.01 ETH ($19.25) ‘dust attack’, including crypto exchanges and public figures. Ethereum’s third and final testnet merge was completed on Goerli. This is one step closer to Ethereum’s mainnet upgrade, which is expected to happen this year. DEX Protocols Metrics     Lending Protocols Metrics     Charts on Layer 2 Projects Overall, the L2 market saw +6.99% growth over the past week. Optimistic rollup projects rose +4.15% and zero-knowledge rollup projects dropped -4.61%. Sidechain projects gained traction with +18.02% growth, mainly driven by Polygon (+20.50%). Ethereum’s TVL rose +1.17%.     The TVL for almost all of optimistic rollup’s projects were negative last week except Arbitrum (+7.75%) and Optimism (+0.04%).     Although the overall TVL of ZK rollups fell, StarkNet was under the spotlight as its TVL grew +14.07%.     Further Reading Arbitrum launches gaming and social App-focused layer 2 chain Arbitrum Nova DeFi protocols Aave, Uniswap, Balancer, ban users following OFAC sanctions on Tornado Cash Tornado Cash DAO shuts down as it “can’t fight the US” and keep contributors safe BlueBenx fires employees, halts funds withdrawal citing $32M hack Interlay launches Bitcoin-backed stablecoin iBTC on Polkadot network DeFi firms Iron Bank, Yearn Finance join layer 2 protocol Optimism Cross-chain bridge RenBridge laundered $540M in hacking proceeds: Elliptic Authors Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters    Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES DEFI L1 & L2 Source: DeFi & L1L2 (Week 32, 10/08/2022 – 16/08/2022) (crypto.com)
There Are Many Ways To Join A Crypto Community

Crypto: Livepeer. Video Protocol Built On Ethereum Blockchain. Is It Worth It?

Binance Academy Binance Academy 17.08.2022 13:50
TL;DR   Livepeer is a decentralized video protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain. It was designed for anyone to seamlessly integrate video content into applications in a decentralized manner and at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions. Decentralization of video processing is accomplished by distributing the transcoding process to a network of node operators. Transcoding is an essential step in ensuring smooth delivery of video content to end users. It involves taking raw video files and converting them to the optimal state for each end user, based on factors such as device screen size or internet connection. Livepeer processes video content reliably and inexpensively using blockchain technology that utilizes game theory, cryptoeconomic incentives, and smart contracts to foster positive stakeholder interactions. Its native asset, the Livepeer token (LPT), is used to coordinate and distribute video processing tasks among network participants securely and reliably.    Introduction   With the increasing reliance on social media, especially amid the recent pandemic, as well as the massive growth of the creator economy, video-related content used more than 82% of the internet’s bandwidth in 2021.  The Livepeer network, powered by thousands of distributed nodes, gives video app developers and creators access to a secure, high-quality, affordable encoding architecture without a hefty price tag. Since its inception in 2017, the Livepeer network has processed over 150 million minutes of video.   How does Livepeer work?   Livepeer, built on Ethereum, is essentially a network that connects anyone seeking video processing with suppliers that provide this service. It uses its native token, LPT, to incentivize network participants to keep this video transcoding process reliable, secure, and affordable compared to current centralized solutions. There are two main stakeholders in the Livepeer network: orchestrators and delegators.  Orchestrators Anyone who owns video mining equipment can stake their LPT and perform video processing work on the Livepeer network. In exchange for providing this service, they receive a share of the video processing fee in the form of LPT and ETH. These network participants are called orchestrators.  Delegators Those who don’t have access to video mining tools or video processing experience can still participate in the network by delegating or assigning their LPT to a node operator with the right tools and expertise to process video via the Livepeer Explorer. These network participants are called delegators.   What is LPT? The network’s native asset, the Livepeer token (LPT), is an ERC-20 token used to provide security, distribute video processing tasks among network participants, and incentivize their active participation in the various roles on the Livepeer network. The more LPT tokens are committed to the network’s functioning, the more stable, secure, and robust it becomes.   Orchestrators are allocated work according to the amount of LPT they have staked — their own or those of delegators — along with their geographical location and reliability. Since more delegated tokens lead to more work, and more work equals more rewards, orchestrators compete to attract as many delegators as possible. At the end of each round, i.e. end of every day, the Livepeer protocol mints new Livepeer tokens according to a designated inflation rate. Livepeer is a “stake-based” protocol, which means rewards are allocated to each participating user in proportion to their contribution. Participants who have been active in a given round — either by running nodes or by staking tokens — receive a proportionate amount of the issued reward. Those who did not actively participate in a given round do not receive these rewards.  Orchestrators also earn an added benefit: they receive a portion of their delegators’ rewards as a commission for running the decentralized infrastructure.  With this system, active participants can grow their stake in the network. Meanwhile, transcoding rights of inactive users shrink with every round in which they do not participate. In other words, a larger LPT stake results in more allocated work, ultimately leading to more rewards.  The inflation rate used to determine the size of the issued rewards also motivates users to be active. The percentage of new LPT in each compensation round is determined by how many total LPT are committed to the network’s successful functioning. The higher this proportion, the lower the inflation rate and the more value existing tokens will retain. Thus, token holders are naturally motivated to stake more to earn more.   How to buy LPT on Binance?   You can buy LPT on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Trade] -> [Spot].  2. Type “LPT” on the search bar to see the available trading pairs. We will use LPT/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of LPT you want to buy. In this example, we will use a Market order. Click [Buy LPT] to confirm your order, and the purchased LPT will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts Livepeer has designed a solution to delegate video processing tasks to reliable parties. With a  decentralized video protocol, Web3 projects and companies can avoid high, arbitrary video processing fees and censorship to provide better video content for their audiences.   Source: What Is Livepeer (LPT)?
The Sandbox Is Available On GitHub, The Norway's CBDC Based On Ethereum Technology

ETH - The New King Of Crypto World? Ethereum Price (USD) - Technical Analysis - 17/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.08.2022 14:46
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: The ICO Ethereum whale address carries 145,000 ETH to various accounts in the weeks before Merge Such a large number of ETH carried over just a month before the merge sparked the curiosity of the crypto community. Some say it is for selling, while others say it is for betting. The Ethereum whale wallet, which participated in the initial coin offering (ICO) and acquired 150,000 Etherum (ETH) in 2014, was reactivated on August 14 after three years of sleep. From its address, the whale shifted 145,000 ETH to multiple wallets as Etherum's price soared to a new three-month high of over $ 2,000. The transfers were made in batches of 5,000 ETH, with several transfers of over 10,000 ETH. The total value of Etherum transferred is over $ 280 million and the wallet address currently has a balance of 0.107 ETH. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has hit the level of $1,990, which is the 100% Fibonacci extension of the wave A and a perfect target for the wave C of the overall ABC corrective cycle. The local high was made at the level of $2,029, nevertheless the upside is limited due to the key technical resistance located at the level of $2,040. The momentum had violated the level of fifty already and it points to the south indicating a strong bearish activity. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,915 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located lower, between the levels of $1,785 - $1,756.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,132 WR2 - $2,042 WR1 - $1,986 Weekly Pivot - $1,953 WS1 - $1,897 WS2 - $1,864 WS3 - $1,775 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next key psychological level for bulls is located at $2,000 and needs to be clearly violated before any extension higher.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/288843
Summer's End: An Anxious Outlook for the Global Economy

Crypto Market Is Dependent On Stock Market. The Correlation Between Nasdaq 100 And BTC

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 17.08.2022 15:27
Michael Burry is a well-known US investor who became famous for betting on the collapse of the US real estate market and the burst of the bubble in 2008. On 15 August, he filed a 13F form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), revealing the positions of his fund, Scion Asset Management. To the surprise of many, the investment portfolio turned out to be almost completely empty. Burry held shares worth 165 million at the end of the first quarter. These included companies such as Google, Meta and Stellantis. However, the latest report filed with the regulator revealed that all of it had been sold and the glorified investor's only long position is in GeoGroup, a company involved in running private prisons, but the value of the position is negligible at just under $3.31 million. The investor has recently been posting a number of tweets suggesting the end of the bear market rally. This has sent shock waves across the market, as the investment manager has usually been successful in predicting the market moves, famous for his incisiveness. If there were to be large declines in the broad traditional market, e.g. equities, what could this mean for crypto? The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 seems to be apparent, but after the last all-time high reading of 0.84 in May, it dropped to around 0.48 at the end of June. What is unfortunate, however, is that the correlation has been rising with subsequent waves of declines and peaked near local lows. If the stock market were to actually experience a crash, a strong reaction from the crypto market can be expected. The recent increase in correlation may be due to the increasing participation of token trading institutions. Michael Burry's attitude was addressed by Mati Greenspan CEO of Quantum Economic, stating that predicting the timing and scale of a crash is almost impossible. "Predicting a stock crash is a lot like predicting an earthquake. You know one will happen every so often but you can never tell exactly when or how severe it will be" - Greenspan said. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, BTC is seeing its fourth day of decline, losing more than 0.7% at 10:30 GMT+3, while ETH is gaining less than 0.3%, drawing its first upward candle in three days. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Michael Burry closed almost all his positions - what could another stock market crash mean for crypto?
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

Crypto: Ethereum Price - Is It Correction Time!?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.08.2022 15:30
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum ended its upward spurt, failing to retest $2,000. As a result, the price began to decline and hit a support area near the level of $1,900. At the same time, the overall situation in the market remains tense due to low liquidity and trading activity. On top of that, there were alarming rumors about ETH's transition to the PoS and the US sanctions policy. These factors, as well as altcoin's dependence on Bitcoin, give rise to opinions that ether is about to start a correction.     From the technical point of view, the asset remains bullish and is likely to make another attempt to break through $2,000. The RSI resumed upward movement after a brief consolidation. The stochastic oscillator is also preparing to form a bullish crossover. Technical metrics indicate that buying activity remains high, and fundamental reasons for growth are pulling the price upwards. At the same time, the MACD continues to move flat, which indicates that there are no significant bullish signals in the long term.     Another important problem with Ethereum's technical metrics is their positioning. The stochastic oscillator is moving near 75 and the relative strength index is at 65. These are bullish signals, indicating continued buying sentiment. However, the indicators have been above 60 since July 25, and the metrics have moved into the overbought territory several times during that period. This is normal for an asset that is one step away from an important update but it also indicates that it is overheated. Recent evidence of record ETH inflation due to low online fees confirms that the market is overheated.     If we evaluate the main onchain metrics reflecting the number of active addresses and the volume of daily trading, we can conclude that there are no clear signs of positive factors. We see a correlation between the growth of the number of addresses and trading volumes, but the co-dependence manifests itself impulsively rather than consistently. This is also a normal situation for an asset that is one step away from an important merge. Fundamentally, it suggests that interest in ether, though high, is not consistent. This increases volatility, reduces institutional interest, and negatively affects the formation of a long-term trend.     In addition, more than 66% of ETH validators on PoS are going to comply with US sanctions and block illegal transactions. There would be no problem if the majority of validators supported this initiative, but we see more than 35% are disagreeing with this policy. As a result, Ethereum's move to PoS could create a conflict with far-reaching consequences. There is no doubt that the situation will be closely monitored by institutional investors, for whom validation and transaction security issues are paramount.     Overall, the PoS update will be revolutionary and will greatly strengthen Ethereum's position in the market. Ethereum issuance will drop from approximately 13,000 coins per day to 2,000-3,000. In this respect, the asset will approach Bitcoin in terms of its capabilities and attractiveness. The merger is exactly one month away, and the altcoin needs a recovery correction to conduct a consolidation period before the main Merge update starts. At this stage, the ether retains bullish potential, high but erratic investor interest, and is preparing for another $2,000 retest.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319150
The Sandbox Is Available On GitHub, The Norway's CBDC Based On Ethereum Technology

Crypto: Ethereum Foundation Reminds Of Important Facts About The Merge! | 1 ETH To USD - Technical Analysis (18/08/22)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.08.2022 12:11
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: The Ethereum Foundation wants the public and ETH investors to be aware that The Merge is a transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), not a reduction in gas charges: "The gas charges are the product of the network's demand [for services] in relation to its capacity," the organization said. The foundation explains that it is about changing the algorithm to PoS, which, however, "does not significantly change any parameters that directly affect the network capacity." While the transaction fees on the Ethereum network will not change after The Merge, users who want a lower fee for transfers will be able to take advantage of Tier 2 scaling solutions or wait for further updates in the Ethereum chain. After The Merge, the Ethereum Foundation will roll out The Surge, The Verge, The Purge and finally The Splurge. And it is the latter that aims to improve scaling with sharding technology. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has fell out of the channel around the level of $1,880 and is testing the technical support located at $1,819. The momentum had violated the level of fifty already and it points to the south indicating a strong bearish activity. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,915 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located lower, between the levels of $1,785 - $1,756.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,132 WR2 - $2,042 WR1 - $1,986 Weekly Pivot - $1,953 WS1 - $1,897 WS2 - $1,864 WS3 - $1,775 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next key psychological level for bulls is located at $2,000 and needs to be clearly violated before any extension higher.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289046
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Crypto Market: Ethereum Price Could Be Affected By BTC/USD Decline

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.08.2022 15:32
Relevance up to 11:00 2022-08-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. ETH/USD has changed little in the short term only because BTC/USD seems undecided. Ethereum turned to the downside after failing to confirm a larger swing higher. Technically, the price action signaled a larger drop in the upcoming period. In the last 24 hours, ETH/USD has gone down by 2.59% and by 2.09% in the last 7 days. Ethereum tried to rebound but the immediate upside obstacles stopped the rally. BTC/USD's deeper drop should push ETH/USD towards new lows. ETH/USD Downwards Movement Underway     The price dropped below the uptrend line, signaling that the leg higher ended and that sellers could take the lead. It has tried to come back above the broken uptrend line but it failed to stabilize above it showing strong downside pressure. It has retested the 1,858 static resistance and now it could approach and reach 1,820 again which represents critical support. ETH/USD Outlook Dropping, closing, and stabilizing below 1,820 could activate more declines and could bring new short opportunities.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289061
Crypto: Shocking Forecast! Could (ETH) Ethereum Price Fall After The Merge!?

Crypto: Shocking Forecast! Could (ETH) Ethereum Price Fall After The Merge!?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.08.2022 10:03
Market picture Bitcoin was almost flat on Thursday but started Friday with a 6% plunge, momentarily dropping to $21.5K. Ethereum is losing 4.5% overnight to $1760. Leading altcoins are down 7% (XRP) to 12% (Solana). Total crypto market capitalisation is down 4.2% to $1.07 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin's fall below $22.5K is a formal break of the upward corridor of the past two months, as a sequence of increasingly higher local lows is broken. Currently, BTCUSD is testing the 50-day moving average, which could act as an uptrend indicator. The current dip has made the fight for the 200-week average, which is now near $23K, relevant again. Closing the week below this level risks triggering another round of liquidation. Altcoins are losing even more significantly, reflecting a dramatic shift in enthusiast sentiment from cautious buying to simultaneously locking in quick profits across a wide range of coins. Additionally, the weakening of global equity indices and the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop is worrying factor. At the same time, the crypto market is no longer oversold but not yet attractive to long-term investors. We believe we will see similar sharp market movements again in the coming months. News background Arthur Hayes, former head of crypto exchange BitMEX, talked about two scenarios after Ethereum moves to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mining algorithm. If the fork is unsuccessful, ETH could fall sharply but hold above $800. If the merger is successful, an ETH rally should be expected, although it may be delayed, as in the case of bitcoin halving. Korean authorities are investigating 16 crypto exchanges that are accused of breaking local laws and providing digital asset trading services to Korean citizens. Tether, the issuer of the largest USDT stablecoin by capitalisation, has announced a partnership with accounting firm BDO Italia. Tether plans to move from reporting quarterly financial results to monthly reporting.
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Breaking: You Can Pay For Fuel With Crypto At Some Gas Stations In Australia! Technical Analysis Of ETH/USD - 19/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.08.2022 13:05
Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-20 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: The well-known Australian gas station brand On The Run (OTR) has today launched a cryptocurrency payment service at its 175 points. They are located in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. This is a consequence of establishing cooperation between the OTR company and the Singapore cryptocurrency exchange and DataMesh - the national provider of payment systems. The stock exchange is responsible for providing the Pay Merchant service as a payment settlement layer, and Datamesh supplies the points of sale with terminals. The next steps that OTR's parent company, Peregrine Corp, intends to take are the introduction of cryptocurrency payments at another 250 retail outlets in Australia. We are talking about places such as Subway, Oporto and Krispy Kreme. Mohan also announced that Crypto.com does not charge additional fees for transactions carried out in this situation. However, a top-down fee will be charged on the part of the seller who will set the rates for the products and services himself. It looks like the transaction costs will be equal to the cost of paying with a fiat card. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has fell out of the channel around the level of $1,880 and is broke below the technical support located at $1,819. At the time of writing the analysis, the new local low was made at the level of $1,805. The momentum had violated the level of fifty already and it points to the south indicating a strong bearish activity. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,915 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located lower, between the levels of $1,785 - $1,756.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $2,132 WR2 - $2,042 WR1 - $1,986 Weekly Pivot - $1,953 WS1 - $1,897 WS2 - $1,864 WS3 - $1,775 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next key psychological level for bulls is located at $2,000 and needs to be clearly violated before any extension higher.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289174
The Close Relationship With BTC Does Not Allow The Altcoin To Move On Its Own

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) And Bitcoin (BTC) Start Losing? Filecoin (FIL) Sheded Almost 18%!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 19.08.2022 14:57
Since the beginning of July, the crypto market seemed to be on the rise. The largest tokens (BTC and ETH) at the local peak, gained around 35% and 101% respectively. However, today at 11:30 GMT+3 BTC is losing around 7.3% and ETH around 8%. Today, ETH broke through its price channel and the 20-day moving average. If the price does not return to the channel in the next couple of days, we will be able to say that a possible reversal of the short-term trend we mentioned in previous articles has taken place. Especially if this is confirmed by indicators such as the Wilder directional indicator. BTC has also moved far out of its price channel and is currently below the 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. The directional indicator has already shown a potential trend reversal and the MACD is approaching the negative zone. Today on the Conotoxia MT5 platform at 11:00 GMT+3, Filecoin (FIL) is down the most. It is experiencing a loss of almost 18%. According to Coinmarketcap, it has a capitalisation of almost $1.8 billion and a daily volume of over $511 million. Filecoin was launched in 2020 to decentralise data storage, providing an alternative to industry giants such as Amazon and Alibaba at a cost reduction of almost 99%. The project's network connects storage providers with customers looking for a place to keep their data. Those offering their storage from laptops to server rooms after verifying data integrity and security can obtain a FIL token as a reward. This creates a highly diversified and low-cost database network. However, the characteristics of the project are inherently inflationary, unlike BTC. The declines described are attributed to a broad market correction, the exit of 'big money' and growing pessimism about the increasing supply of FIL tokens. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: The crypto market falls as profits are realised
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

🟥Watch Out Crypto Fans! Ethereum Price May Catch You By Surprise!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2022 10:46
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Crypto Industry News: About six years after Ethereum Classic miners excavated the first ETC block at block 1,920,000, the ETC hashrate reached the new ATH on August 20, 2022. The Hashrate ETC was 38.37 TH / s at block height 15 776 674. Hashrate joined the ETC chain over time, Ethereum is getting closer and closer to the Merge update scheduled for September 15, 2022. Four days ago, on August 17, the ETC hashrate was 27.56 TH / s and has increased by 39.22% since that day . The largest ETC mining pool is Ethermine, controlling 8.05 TH / s, and the next with 8.02 TH / s is Poolin. The combined hashrate of Ethermine and Poolin of around 16 TH / s is over 40% of the global ETC hashrate. The Ethereum Classic was launched after the 2016 DAO hack and the first ETC block was excavated on July 20, 2016. ETC supporters believe this is the original unchanged Ethereum Blockchain as the DAO hard fork wiped out the Blockchain event. Committing to proof-of-work, the developers of Ethereum Classic removed the "difficulty bomb" from the ETC chain at a block height of 5,900,000. While Ethereum Classic saw a significant jump in its hashrate rate, other Ethash-based token networks such as Ravencoin, Ergo, and Beam saw no significant increases in hashrate. The Nora's Ethereum Classic hashrate level record is thus in line with many predictions that the ETH hashrate would transfer to the ETC. Last week, JPMorgan's market strategists predicted ETC would likely be one of The Merge's main beneficiaries. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has fell out of the channel and the sell-off accelerates rapidly towards the technical support seen at the level of $1,559. The market conditions on the H4 time frame chart are extremely oversold, however the bearish pressure is still strong. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,666 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,559 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,358.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,703 WR2 - $1,649 WR1 - $1,615 Weekly Pivot - $1,595 WS1 - $1,560 WS2 - $1,540 WS3 - $1,485 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289418
Oh My! Crypto Market Decreased By $150 Billion! CME Group Is Said To Launch (ETH) Ether Futures

Oh My! Crypto Market Decreased By $150 Billion! CME Group Is Said To Launch (ETH) Ether Futures

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.08.2022 13:03
Market picture Bitcoin has declined 12.2% in the past seven days, trading at $21,500. Ethereum has lost 17.8%, down to $1560. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 have fallen from 7.8% (BNB) to 22% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, dipped below $1 trillion over the weekend, losing $150 billion over the week. Near this level, the crypto market lingered in mid-year and early 2021. Bitcoin's inability to develop growth above $25K showed that in the previous two months, we had only seen a rebound in a falling market, but not the start of a rapid recovery. BTC is showing negative technical signals, having fallen below its 200-week moving average, now passing around $23K. Most of Bitcoin's decline came on Friday, and its catalyst may have been a drop in stock indices. After four weeks of gains, the S&P 500 began a correction, with its biggest fall in almost two months. Pressure on risky assets came from the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July meeting published on Wednesday, which showed the regulator's determination to fight inflation. Having broken the upward channel support, BTCUSD is now stomping around $21K, where the price direction has reversed four times in the past four months. News background The recent announcement by the US House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee that lawmakers are "deeply concerned" about the popularity of Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency mining may have affected the negative market dynamics. The members of Congress requested four mining companies to provide data on the environmental impact of their activities. The European Central Bank (ECB) outlined its plan to license cryptocurrency activities and create a regulatory framework governing the industry in the EU. On 12 September, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will launch options on Ethereum futures ahead of The Merge. This will happen after regulators approve the initiative. Finally, the Accounting firm BDO Italia has provided an opinion on the adequacy of Tether Holdings' reserves to collateralise the USDT stablecoin fully.
Soybean and Wheat Markets React to USDA's Latest Crop Projections

Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum (ETH) Are Losing In Value!?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.08.2022 17:20
The average bitcoin payment fee recently fell below $1 for the first time in years. Transaction fees are needed to enable crypto intermediaries to operate, but they are hampering the adoption of payment solutions, affecting small payments in particular. Because the network is expensive to maintain due to its energy-intensive nature, commissions have been able to shoot up many times, for example, Ethereum commissions during the NFT hype. This is even more painful for transfers of small sums. This is why new technological solutions are so important. Here comes ethereum's Merge and payment solutions for bitcoin (Lightning Network and Taproot overlays), which are already revolutionising the world of crypto payments. They allow settlements to be faster, less energy-intensive and less expensive. The current average transaction fee for BTC payments has fallen below $0.825 - the lowest since 13 June 2020, ETH below $0.64, and is likely to be even cheaper. Their decline is not only a reason for the ever-improving technology, but also the recent crash of tokens, NFTs and an increase in the ease of mining in the long term. However, current energy and cryptocurrency prices may cause a short-term decline in mining activity. Many have already suspended operations or exited the crypto world. This can be seen in particular through the massive sale of mining rigs and used computer hardware (especially graphics cards). ETH, BTC and most tokens seemed to continue their declines. ETH and BTC prices are below the price channel and in the absence of a return above its bottom line, we can probably already speak of a short-term trend reversal. ETH has found its support on the 50-day moving average for now, while BTC has already crossed it. Moreover, the technical indicators (RSI, MACD and ADX) do not indicate a reversal of the short-term trend either. Declines in the major stock market indexes, hawkish announcements from the FED and further pessimistic data from the economy seem to be putting a lot of pressure on crypto. RafaÅ‚ Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: BTC and ETH payments getting cheaper. Will Cryptocurrencies experience further declines?
Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum (ETH) Situation. Is It Just An Run-Up?

Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum (ETH) Situation. Is It Just An Run-Up?

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.08.2022 19:15
Summary:  On Friday, crypto long positions worth north of $500mn were liquidated, as fatigue spread in the crypto market. Not helping was speculation that exchanges may be forced to censor certain transactions on Ethereum in the future. Speaking of transactions, the demand for them on Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased significantly, weakening the fundamentals of particularly Ethereum. Traders standing in line to be liquidated The crypto market, notably Ethereum, recovered partially in July and August until last week. From a low of 17,600 (BTCUSD) and 880 (ETHUSD) in June, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged to a local high of 25,200 and 2,030 on the 15th and 14th of August, respectively. Following new local highs, the market was seemingly becoming exhausted last week. Since then, Bitcoin has plunged by 15.6% to 21,270, whereas the Ethereum price has declined by 23.3% to 1,565. On mainly Friday, crypto derivative exchanges saw red. On this day, long positions were liquidated worth a combined $562mn in 24 hours. This is almost as much as the day in June, when Celsius halted withdrawals, even though the market movement to the downside was larger in June. This means that the crypto market has been extremely leveraged to ride the uptrend the past month and that party came to a halt on Friday. It seems that traders have particularly leveraged Ethereum trades going into the merge. Can exchanges censor certain Ethereum transactions? Two weeks ago, the US sanctioned the most used mixer on the Ethereum network called Tornado Cash. The latter has often been linked to money laundering; however, it was frequently used by private individuals to engage with the Ethereum network privately. The Tornado Cash protocol cannot by default be shut down, since it is a smart contract, so the sanctions involve that no US person or entity is allowed to engage with transactions originating from Tornado Cash. Afterward, speculation arose about what could possibly be next in line to be sanctioned. The ultimate sanction could be to censor certain Ethereum transactions, thus possibly shutting down the Tornado Cash protocol for good. At the moment, it would not be possible for governments to directly censor such transactions, however, it might be possible for them, as soon as Ethereum adopts proof-of-stake instead of a proof-of-work framework in the middle of September, known as the merge. This is because the majority of the Ether staked, hence Ether used to verify transactions, is done through exchanges or other intermediaries by clients handing over their Ether to these companies for them to verify transactions on Ethereum. For instance, Coinbase handles close to 15% of the total amount of Ether staked. Governments can technically make Coinbase adhere to such sanctions by ensuring it does not verify transactions related to Tornado Cash on a network level. Without going into too many details, in our opinion, it is very unlikely that this will occur, both from a societal and technical point of view. Yet, if it in reality occurs, then everything in the industry is at risk since the main selling proposition is full decentralization without intermediaries. In case certain transactions are ruled out from the network, we need to look ourselves in the mirror and ask if this industry has then anything to offer at all. The speculation in this matter did arguably contribute negatively to the price development of Ethereum in the last week. Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s co-founder and CEO, commented on this on Twitter last week. Here, he said that Coinbase would possibly exit its staking operations if governments came to enforce the sanction of transactions on-chain, as Armstrong stated, “to focus on the bigger picture” by keeping Ethereum decentralized. If all staking providers do this, then it will presumably not be a problem, as the network will be kept online by solo stakers. When prices drop, fees follow suit For the majority of the year, the crypto prices have been on a downward trajectory. Transaction fees paid on particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum have followed suit. In November last year, Bitcoin generated around $500,000 - $1mn in fees daily, while Ethereum set at around $50mn - $80mn in transaction fees daily. Now, Bitcoin averages around $150,000 - $300,000 daily, while Ethereum sits at around $2mn - $3mn daily. This emphasizes that most activity on Bitcoin but primarily Ethereum is highly speculative and strictly linked to the prices of cryptocurrencies. Source: Token Terminal For Bitcoin, there are no direct consequences of lower total transaction fees in the near term. However, it might have consequences in the next decades, since the network might not be able to sufficiently compensate miners. For Ethereum, the lower transaction fees result in less Ether burned, effectively meaning less is removed from the supply. This makes the fundamentals of Ethereum weaker. For instance, Ethereum has for the past year burned 4.71 Ether per minute from transaction fees, whereas it has only managed to burn 0.89 Ether per minute in the past 30 days. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group   Source: Crypto Weekly: Leverage is the language of crypto
Crypto Market Survived A Dramatic Loss! Guo Seems To Prefer PoW Ethereum To Proof-Of-Stake!

Crypto Market Survived A Dramatic Loss! Guo Seems To Prefer PoW Ethereum To Proof-Of-Stake!

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 23.08.2022 12:57
Most of the cryptocurrencies ended up in the heavy red over the past week, with most reaching double-digit losses. The overall cryptocurrency market volume in the past 24 hours came up to $60.83 billion - a drastic drop of over $17 billion from the past week. The overall crypto market cap decreased slightly compared to the previous week, coming up to $1 trillion, a slight decrease from the previous week’s $1.15 billion.   Let's delve deeper and take a quick look at the latest crypto market news and BTC's technical outlook.   Crypto Market Overview Bitcoin's dominance has remained below the 40% mark but increased slightly to 39.31%. This came as a result of BTC outperforming the top cryptocurrencies by making a smaller downturn. The most valuable cryptocurrency pair, BTC/USDT, is currently trading at $21,293.62, while Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fallen to $1,570.88, down 18.92% in the last week.   The top performers from the previous week were EOS (EOS) and Chiliz (CHZ), while the rest ended their week in the red. EOS has increased by 19.74% to $1.51, while CHZ gained 7.54% in the past seven days.   Cryptocurrency Market Heatmap | Source: Coin360   On the other hand, Lido DAO (LDO), Near Protocol (NEAR), and Curve DAO Token (CRV) were the worst performers of the week. LDO is down 31.27% to $1.91; NEAR is down 26.63% in the last seven days; CRV is down 26.17% to $1.   Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers Top Altcoin Gainers: EOS (EOS) ➠ 19.74% Chilliz (CHZ) ➠ 7.54% Top Altcoin Losers: Lido DAO (LDO) ➠ 31.27% Near Protocol (NEAR) ➠ 26.63% Curve DAO Token (CRV) ➠ 26.17%   News Highlights Here are some of the events that made the previous week's crypto news section stand out:   Ethereum 2.0 Merge in the Limelight, PoW Ethereum the Talk of the Town The Ethereum blockchain is on track to make its highly anticipated transition from its current Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) one. The Merge date is officially scheduled for Sept. 15–16 after the successful final Goerli testnet integration to the Beacon Chain on Aug 11.   However, not everything is going smoothly, as a group of miners and PoW supporters have announced that they will opt to hard fork Ethereum and continue operations on the new version. Chandler Guo, a Bitcoin (BTC) miner, was among the first to bring out a case for the PoW Ethereum chain post-Merge. In a tweet on July 28, Guo shared with the public a screenshot of Chinese miners saying that PoW Ethereum is coming soon.   However, Vitalik Buterin has denounced those who are in favor of PoW Ethereum, claiming that the move is just a ploy for miners to make easy money without benefiting humanity - especially after them declining to move to ETC, a Proof-of-Work Ethereum fork from 2016.   Cardano Testnet Critical Bug a Controversy? Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, has come out to speak about how the issues surrounding the Cardano Vasil hard fork have been “incredibly corrosive and damaging.” After a rumor broke out that Cardano’s testnet is “catastrophically broken,” Hoskinson stated that there’s been an “unfair narrative” floating around Cardano and its testnet issues, which he called “incredibly corrosive and damaging.”   He spoke about how people can and should not conflate a failed testnet with the mainnet, because testnets are constructed and destroyed all the time in this industry. He then added that “They are in no way, in any way harm Cardano itself.”   The Vasil hard fork has already been delayed several times this year, with the most recent delay being announced at the end of July due to issues identified on the testnet. Hoskinson, however, remains optimistic that the Vasil hard fork will ship “imminently.”   USDC Records a 22-Month Low Whale Holding Percentage The percentage of USD Circle (USDC) stablecoins held by the top 1% of wallet addresses dropped to its lowest point in almost two years as the crypto market downturn continues. While the real reason or reasons for this are unknown, various commentators have suggested that some users shifted their stablecoin holdings from USDC to USDT. This claim was made given the correlation in the decline and growth of the respective stablecoins’ market cap.   Data from Glassnode, an on-chain analysis firm, shows that the percent of USDC held by the top 1% of addresses is currently at a 22-month low of 87.667%.   However, even though the market cap of USDC ended up reducing somewhat, the stablecoin reached a three-year high in terms of weekly mean transaction volume, surpassing the previous high it registered in June of this year.   Tether Decreases Commercial Paper Holdings by 58% An announcement from USDT issuer Tether Holdings Limited revealed the results of the independent Q2 attestation performed by the top accounting firm BDO Italia.   Tether had previously made an announcement that they intend to reduce their commercial paper holdings to 0% by the end of October 2022. Data from this report revealed a 58% decrease in commercial paper exposure since the previous quarter. When translated into dollar value, this is a decrease from $20 billion to $8.5 billion.   The CTO of Tether, Paolo Ardoino, tweeted that Tether plans to continue to decrease its commercial paper holdings to $200 million by the end of August, and to ultimately reach zero by the following October.   The Fear & Greed Index at 29, Market Turning More Bearish The fear and greed index continues to signal "fear," with an index indicating a 29 score. Fear levels have increased greatly since the past week, with the market now being much more fearful than on Monday past week, when the Index showed 45.   Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week ➺ 22/08/2022 - JEWEL - DeFi Kingdoms AMA ➺ 22/08/2022 - DFI - BitMart Listing ➺ 23/08/2022 - TRX - Telegram AMA ➺ 24/08/2022 - SAND - Alpha Season 3 Begins ➺ 25/08/2022 - Crypto - CoinFest Asia ➺ 26/08/2022 - ICP - BTC Testnet AMA   Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart Bitcoin has had a very bad week, with its price slowly recording double-digit losses and dropping below several support levels. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has seemingly failed to maintain the uptrend it kept for over a month, while also falling below the 21-day moving average level.   This downtrend has led BTC from a little over $25,000 all the way up to a high of $20,760, which it hit on Saturday. However, the price bounced back above the $21,000 mark, and it’s fighting to stay above this level.   BTC/USDT Chart on the Daily Timeframe | Source: KuCoin   Analysts are predicting an even further drop due to worldwide uncertainty, with long-term lows possibly hitting the low teens.   Bitcoin’s immediate support level stays at $21,000, while its immediate resistance level lies at the 21-day moving average, currently sitting at $23,100.   Did you know that KuCoin offers premium TradingView charts to all its clients? With this, you can step up your Bitcoin technical analysis and easily identify various crypto chart patterns.     Sign up on KuCoin, and start trading today! Follow us on Twitter >>> https://twitter.com/kucoincom Join us on Telegram >>> https://t.me/Kucoin_Exchange Download KuCoin App >>> https://www.kucoin.com/download Also, Subscribe to our Youtube Channel >>>Listen to 60s Podcast Source: Weekly Crypto Analysis: BTC Testing $21K Support; Crypto Market Losing its Upward Momentum| KuCoin
The Canadian Dollar Gains Momentum as Crude Oil Prices Surge

Wall Street: The Worst Day Since June. Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum (ETH) Can Feel The Tension In The Air

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 23.08.2022 14:35
According to Coinmarketcap data, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen to nearly $1 trillion, showing a major shift in sentiment among traders and investors in recent days. The last time market capitalization was at this level was in late July. The possible trend reversal does not only apply to cryptocurrencies. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen from their local highs of August 16 by 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively. This is a significant change for such large indexes. Interest rates on U.S. 5-year Treasury bonds, after recording a local low of 2.55% on August 1, have risen to 3.17% in recent weeks, as Fed policymakers' statements proved more hawkish than expected. These are potential signs of a deteriorating outlook again, which should not be ignored. A chart of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index may show a decline in crypto market sentiment and an increase in investor fear. As recently as last week, the index showed a reading of 44, and now it is 28 points. Despite the partial decrease in the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500, it still seems to be high. Especially since it has historically risen during crashes - the last peak in the correlation was reached in mid-May, when both markets were down. BTC and ETH, despite finding support at $20,700 and $25,300, respectively, could be more exposed to the downside due to deteriorating economic data and market sentiment.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform as of 12:00 GMT+3, one of the strongest falling tokens is EOS, which is losing nearly 9% after a 7-day gain of 48%. EOS is the native token of the EOSIO network. In practice, the project provides blockchain developers with a set of necessary tools and services to build and scale decentralized applications. The project's first whitepaper was released in 2017, and the team conducted an ICO, securing more than $4 billion in investment. It was one of the largest crowdfunding events in the history of cryptocurrencies.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Does data signal more short-term declines in the crypto market?
Scottie Pippen (Basketball Player) Received A Personalized NFT

(BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Lingers Around $20,000. Crypto Traders May Be Vigilant As Powell's Is Said To Speak In Jackson Hole

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 23.08.2022 16:26
It’s been a choppy day of trade, with much of Asia and Europe treading water while the US is expected to open marginally higher. It’s clear that investors already have an eye on the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week and we’re perhaps seeing some apprehension and anxiety ahead of that. I’m not entirely sure where that has come from because they’ve been perfectly happy to bat away hawkish warnings in recent weeks and if anything, the data has turned slightly in their favour. It may simply be a case of profit-taking after a good run in case the message finally gets through and causes a wobble in the markets. Equally, we could just be seeing markets being set up for a strong end to the week if Chair Powell says anything remotely dovish that excites traders once more. Positivity in PMIs not going to last Outside of the US, it doesn’t seem there’s much to be optimistic about. European PMIs this morning, while marginally beating expectations in some cases, were pretty poor. The flash services PMIs for France and the euro area just about remained in growth territory but the trend suggests that’s only a matter of time. The UK services PMI was a positive surprise, falling only a touch from 52.6 to 52.5 against expectations of a much steeper decline. Unfortunately, not only was the manufacturing PMI frankly appalling, the performance of the far more important services sector is highly unlikely to last. A recession is coming, regardless. Steady after Friday’s tumble Bitcoin has stabilised a little in recent days following Friday’s sharp plunge. It appears to have run into support just above $20,000, around the same level it did back in late July. It’s also around the 61.8% retracement of the June lows to the August peak. As appears to be the case elsewhere, we may be seeing traders adopting caution ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance. A break below $20,000 could be a major blow. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Choppy trade - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) Situation Is Changing Everyday

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2022 16:50
Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: General Bytes is one of the three largest producers of crypto ATM in the world. The company announced on August 19 that their devices had been hacked in a zero-day vulnerability. This term denotes a software security bug that has not been identified by the developers. Hackers used it to modify settings for their own benefit. As a result of Thursday's attack on servers supporting the operation of bitomats, criminals carried out an operation to obtain administrator privileges. Then, they changed the address of the wallet of recipients of transactions, so that device users lost access to the flowing funds while buying or selling them. The manufacturer did not disclose to the public how many devices were affected by the hack and how many funds were stolen. However, the company advised operators to update the software immediately. It was established that the vulnerability has been functioning since Thursday's modification of the CAS software, as a result of which hackers managed to activate its new version with the number 20201208. General Bytes suggests that customers refrain from using their devices until the server is updated. The company hopes to fix the vulnerabilities and restore old settings with some tweaks. Before reactivating its terminals, General Bytes advised customers to review their "cryptocurrency sales settings" again. This is to make sure that hackers have not tweaked their settings so that the funds being sent go directly to their wallets. GB said several security audits have been carried out since the inception of their systems in 2020. However, never once has a similar vulnerability been discovered. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has fell out of the channel and the sell-off accelerates rapidly towards the technical support seen at the level of $1,559. The market conditions on the H4 time frame chart are extremely oversold, however the bearish pressure is still strong and the local bounces are very shallow. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,666 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,559 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,358. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,703 WR2 - $1,649 WR1 - $1,615 Weekly Pivot - $1,595 WS1 - $1,560 WS2 - $1,540 WS3 - $1,485 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 23, 2022
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

ETH/USD - Ethereum Price - Technical Analysis - 24/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2022 15:11
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Crypto Industry News: The chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - Gary Gensler - says there is no reason to treat the cryptocurrency market any differently from the rest of the capital markets just because it uses a different technology: "Recent market events show why it is so important for cryptocurrency companies to comply with securities laws. In recent months, some cryptocurrency lending platforms have frozen their investors' accounts or have gone bankrupt. As for bankruptcy, these investors now have to fight in court. " - added. The head of the SEC emphasized that no matter what the financial product is, whether it is an application, a lending platform, a cryptocurrency exchange or a decentralized financial platform, the regulations must be followed. "For decades, the Supreme Court has explained that the economic realities of a product - not a label - determine whether it is a security [or not]," he explained. He added that he knew that "there are costs of compliance with securities laws." He likened it to "car makers bear the cost of fitting seat belts." Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support seen at the level of $1,559, however, the bears hit the trend line support located around the level of $1,530 as well. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,666 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,559 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,358. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the ETH market remains under the bearish pressure.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,703 WR2 - $1,649 WR1 - $1,615 Weekly Pivot - $1,595 WS1 - $1,560 WS2 - $1,540 WS3 - $1,485 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289757
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) Stops Its Development After The Drop?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2022 23:29
Relevance up to 17:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red line- resistance trend line Blue lines- trading range Green line- short-term support trend line Since the recent low on August 21st around $1,524, Ethereum bounced towards $1,665 but remains trapped inside a trading range with no real progress. The sharp decline from $2,030 ended at $1,524 but price shows no sign of strength for a big bounce higher. Short-term support is found at $1,630, by the green upward sloping trend line. Resistance is at $1,665 by the upper boundary of the trading range. Ethereum is expected to make another move lower at least towards $1,550.I do not expect Ethereum to move higher than $1,750 at this point in time.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum continues moving sideways
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

Crypto: ETH/USD Trying To Recover. Ethereum Gained Almost 10%!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2022 23:40
Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum rebounded in the short term but the current growth could be short-lived. After its amazing sell-off, the altcoin could try to recover. ETH/USD increased by 9.44% from Monday's low of 1,529 to yesterday's high of 1,673. It was trading at 1,644 at the time of writing. Ethereum has gone up by 1.25% in the last 24 hours but it has been down by 10.82% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin tried to rebound, that's why ETH/USD turned to the upside. ETH/USD Temporary Rebound? ETH/USD found support right above the 50% (1,519) retracement level and now has managed to pass above the 38.2% (1,640) retracement level. Still, as long as it stays under the downtrend line, the bias remains bearish. Also, the weekly pivot point of 1,718 represents an upside obstacle. Only a valid breakout through the downtrend line and above 23.6% (1,790) could announce that the downside movement ended. ETH/USD Forecast Testing and retesting the pivot point and the downtrend line and registering only fasle breakouts could announce a new sell-off. A larger downside movement and a great short opportunity could appear only after a valid breakdown below the 50% (1,519) retracement level.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum struggling to rebound
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Crypto: ETH/USD Ether Price - Technical Analysis - 25/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2022 10:10
Crypto Industry News: The upcoming transition of the Ethereum blockchain to the Proof-of-Stake consensus model is on the final straight. The network's developers have given the exact date of this event, which was named the Merge. As is the case with such advanced activities, certain complications are inevitable. This is where web programmers play a key role, reacting quickly to errors that occur. Peter Szilagyi, one of the developers of Ethereum (ETH) software, reported on Twitter that he ran into a bug that could damage the network system. He explained that it was probably a request to accept changes that were attached to create a new retention model or shrink the current one. Some time later, the developer indicated that the caught bug will affect people who are running the version 1.10.22 it was related to. He added that the problem of data loss appears after turning off the devices, hence their tests were not able to catch the error. Nevertheless, the programmers managed to fix the observed error quite efficiently. The Go Ethereum team created a patch that eliminated it. He then instructed users to upgrade backwards and go back to the previous version to check if everything was working properly. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support seen at the level of $1,559 and is currently approaching the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave down located at $1,719. The next technical resistance is seen at $1,756 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,559 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,358. The momentum is currently strong and positive, so the short-term outlook is bullish up to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,836.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,703 WR2 - $1,649 WR1 - $1,615 Weekly Pivot - $1,595 WS1 - $1,560 WS2 - $1,540 WS3 - $1,485 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289930
The Date Of The Merge Is Confirmed. Ethereum (ETH) May Have Good Days?

The Date Of The Merge Is Confirmed. Ethereum (ETH) May Have Good Days?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2022 14:42
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The Ethereum Merge is one of the most anticipated events for the crypto community in 2022, with the end of the multi-year plan to shift to a Proof-of-Stake protocol now in sight. Alas, all technology-related things are not free from bugs. Earlier this week, Peter Szilagyi, an Ethereum software developer, tweeted that his team had found a regression that resulted in a corruptive state. In the later update, the developer explained the problem will likely affect those who are running the release in terms of corrupting their database and resulting in the loss of data. A solution to the problem was found after a day of work. The date of the Merge is confirmed. The Ethereum Foundation provided evidence that this latest bug had not derailed the planned launch of the Merge. On Wednesday, the Foundation posted a blog, saying that developers had officially confirmed September 6 as the transition date to a Proof-of-Stake protocol. This will be a two-step Merge: the Bellatrix stage and the Paris stage. The Bellatrix update will take place at 11:34 AM UTC on September 6. The Paris transition to Proof-of-Stake will occur between September 10 and September 20. These dates could change plus or minus five days due to shifts in block time and hash rate fluctuations.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum Merge coming soon
Crypto: Ethereum - Altcoin Correction Completed?

Crypto: Ethereum - Altcoin Correction Completed?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2022 16:14
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum is on the eve of a key event in its history, but even this did not keep the altcoin from falling. The cryptocurrency fell along with the entire market and tested the support level at around $1500. ETH managed to stop the fall and realize a local bullish momentum, gaining 4.5% over the past day. However, the asset has lost 7% of capitalization over the past seven days. As of August 25, Ethereum reached $1700, but should this be regarded as the end of the correction? On the daily chart, we see the full viability of the altcoin's local bullish momentum. Ethereum formed four uncertain candles in a row, indicating a decrease in overall trading activity and an advantage for buyers. The altcoin has reached a key support zone, which is on par with the final part of the bullish cup and handle pattern. Keeping the bullish pattern intact indicates that strong buying sentiment continues, suggesting a continued rise in the price of ETH. Technically, Ethereum also looks poised for a renewed upward trend. The main metrics of the asset indicate the activation of buyers and the presence of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index fell below 40 but then reversed upwards and crossed the 50 mark. The movement of the RSI directly indicates growing buying volumes and the presence of bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator also confirms the price reversal and forms a bullish crossover near the oversold zone. The MACD also reverses and does not enter the red zone, which is an important bullish signal. Ethereum technical indicators indicate the final price reversal and the completion of the corrective movement. The main on-chain metrics also show an upward movement, which indicate a fundamental confirmation of the price rebound. The number of unique addresses on the ETH network has been showing strong growth since mid-August, suggesting an influx of new users and investments. This fact is confirmed by the growth in transaction volumes in the Ethereum network, which indicates a growing interest in the altcoin network. In other words, after a local correction, which was of a healing nature, Ethereum again attracts investors due to the fundamental factor for growth. In addition, there is an active accumulation of ETH coins by large buyers and miners. This creates a shortage of ether coins, which is especially valuable after inflation peaks in early August due to low fees on the ETH network. Active accumulation by long-term investors and a local decline in the overall trading activity in the Ethereum network had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency. According to the New supply on-chain indicator, the number of new coins is decreasing, creating an additional shortage of ETH in the open supply. However, despite all the positives, it is important to consider the correlation between ETH and BTC. In the coming days, there will be a Jerome Powell symposium, and statistics on unemployment and US GDP growth will also be published. This data can significantly affect Bitcoin, which, in turn, will pull Ethereum along with it. Therefore, if the medium-term prospects of ETH are not in doubt, then everything will depend on Bitcoin regarding the short-term situation.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum holds above $1500: altcoin correction completed?
A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) - The "Migration" Is Expected To Begin

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 25.08.2022 16:29
After many years of announcements, the Ethereum Foundation yesterday set an official date for the complete transition to the Proof-of-Stake (POS) blockchain. As previously anticipated, there have been no delays, so the 'migration' is expected to begin as early as 6 September. The upgrade, known as 'Bellatrix', involves replacing ETH miners with validators, a kind of 'nodes' of the Proof-of-Stake system. They will be responsible for storing data, processing transactions and adding more chain blocks. Each validator is expected to hold a min. 32 ETH - at the current price, this is approximately $60000.  The Ethereum Foundation expects to activate the Beacon Chain as early as 6 September. This is expected to be the first test connection to begin the complete transition to POS. The activation is scheduled for 11:34:47 UTC. After the initial activation, the Terminal Total Difficulty (TTD) triggering the Merge is expected to reach a value of 5875000000000000000000000000000. This is nothing more than the level of synchronisation of the blockchain, which will become a Proof-of-Stake (POS) chain once the threshold value is exceeded. The timetable is for this to be achieved between 10 September and 20 September. According to CoinDesk, Ethereum developers estimate that this moment will occur on 15-16 September. Merge could have an impact on the crypto world and its prospects. Its scale seems to surpass the ETH split of 2016 and could point to new areas of growth such as a Proof-of-Stake solution, energy efficiency and much lower commissions.  In addition to its impact on the development of technology and ETH, the transformation may also affect other tokens that are heavily influenced by the changing ETH blockchain. We are talking primarily about LDO, ETC and OP tokens. These are projects to which an upgrade could give new meaning.  Additionally, yesterday Vitalik Butterin, founder of Ethereum, published a post on Twitter in which he stated, "People continue to underrate how often cryptocurrency payments are superior not even because of censorship resistance but just because they're so much more convenient,". By this, he seems to be referring to the fundamentals of crypto and the changes to come.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Merge receives official start date - what do you need to know?
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Could Crypto And Gold Profit From The De-Dollarization Trend!? ETH/USD - Technical Analysis - 26/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 10:53
Crypto Industry News: According to analysts, with the accelerating global de-dollarization trend, two assets that could benefit from it are gold and crypto space. Earlier this summer, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) were developing a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies. "The issue of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of our countries' currencies is under development," Putin said in the BRICS business forum at the end of June. "We are ready to openly cooperate with all honest partners." Five countries are also trying to create an alternative international payment mechanism, he added. BRICS can also see its membership expand, with Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia considering joining the group. This is not the first time that something like this has been mentioned, as the BRICS countries are already starting to introduce more local currencies into payments in mutual transactions. According to the Deccan Herald, India and Russia held discussions about the mutual acceptance of RuPay and Mir local payment systems during the summer. Analysts see this new BRICS reserve currency proposal as an alternative to the US dollar and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair bounce had been capped at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave down located at $1,719 and the market is reversing lower. The next technical resistance is seen at $1,756 and must be clearly violated in order to continue the up move. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,559 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,358. The momentum is currently strong and positive, so the short-term outlook is bullish up to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,836.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,703 WR2 - $1,649 WR1 - $1,615 Weekly Pivot - $1,595 WS1 - $1,560 WS2 - $1,540 WS3 - $1,485 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/290117
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Price Of Ethereum Got Rejected At The 38% Fibonacci Retracement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 15:25
Relevance up to 14:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red line -resistance Green line - support In our previous analysis on Ethereum we warned traders that price was challenging important Fibonacci retracement level at $1,720. Price got rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and broke below the upward sloping short-term support trend line. Ethereum has pulled back towards $1,620 forming a higher low. If bulls manage to break above recent highs at $1,720, then we could see Ethereum move higher towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Until then, price remains vulnerable to a move lower.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum rejected at Fibonacci resistance.
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

How Could NFT Be Introduced To The Music World? Ethereum To US Dollar (ETH/USD) - Technical Analysis - 29/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2022 10:45
Crypto Industry News: The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly changed our lives. In March 2021, as many as 43% of respondents said that they visit brick-and-mortar stores less frequently. At that time, it was probably influenced by the fear of contracting the coronavirus. Then the situation normalized in May this year as this percentage has dropped to 20%, which is still a considerable value, however. It can be considered that the pandemic has permanently changed our habits and helped us learn to use the Internet in a new way. The number of consumers who choose to shop online is growing. In May 2022, as many as 33% of Poles declared that they prefer to order products this way rather than go to stationary stores for them. This is as much as 9 percentage points (an increase from 24%) more than in March 2021. However, 37% of survey participants mentioned high delivery costs as a barrier when shopping online, 36% - lack of trust in online retailers.The 16% of respondents declared that they intend to buy fewer physical items in the future. "It is expected that with the development of platforms such as the Metaverse, this percentage will increase," the authors of the report add. This means some opportunity for the NFT market. Consumers may in the future buy not a CD of their favorite artist, but digital music along with tokens that confirm the originality of the files. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen making new lower lows as the price is approaching the technical support located at $1,358. The nearest technical resistance is seen at $1,530 - $1,559 and must be clearly violated in order to trigger the up move. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,358 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum remains weak and negative, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,532 WR2 - $1,486 WR1 - $1,468 Weekly Pivot - $1,444 WS1 - $1,424 WS2 - $1,400 WS3 - $1,355 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/290334
The Close Relationship With BTC Does Not Allow The Altcoin To Move On Its Own

Crypro: Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum (ETH) Are Losing A Lot After The Speech In Jackson's Hole!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 29.08.2022 13:50
The crypto market could have collapsed after Jerome Powell's heavily hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. That day, the leading tokens, bitcoin and ethereum lost 4% and 9%, respectively, and continued their declines over the weekend, reaching levels not seen in two months. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, bitcoin is losing 0.5% today at 10:30 GMT+3. After breaking through the likely support level of $20750 on Friday, the token may have entered a short consolidation phase. However, given the potentially high level of pessimism in the market, it may be expected that this will not last long, with possible further downward movements ahead.  The BTC price is far below the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. The nearest possible support levels are around $19300 and $18600. The MACD indicator and the directional indicator seem to indicate the continuation of the downtrend. The RSI oscillator may foretell its reversal, slowly entering the overbought area. However, since oscillators can usually give signals well ahead, one should be very cautious about this signal.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, ethereum is losing 2% today at 10:30 GMT+3. The token tested the likely support level of $1530 on Friday, then broke through it on Saturday. Unlike BTC, ETH has had a much more intense series of rises, and the potential for continued declines maybe even more tremendous. That's probably why the cryptocurrency hasn't even entered a short consolidation phase like BTC, and instead is set lower and lower on successive daily candles.  ETH is also below the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. Popular technical indicators (RSI, directional indicator and MACD) seem to point to a continuation of declines. Even the RSI, which may look optimistic for BTC, has yet to reach the overbought area for ETH.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, the Cardano project's native token (ADA) is losing strongly today, falling nearly 2.5% at 11:00 GMT+3. Cardano is an ecosystem that allows developers to create tokens and decentralized applications (dApps) within DeFi. ADA uses the Proof-of-Stake (POS) blockchain. For a long time, the project has been considered one of the 10 best projects in the crypto world, according to a Forbes ranking. Currently, the token is most likely following the market and seems to be recovering from the increases over the last two months. The current declines in the crypto market may continue after the Fed chairman's hawkish speech. The expected pivot in monetary policy is likely to happen, but much later than investors anticipated. In the short to medium term, the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and optimism about blockchain technology could be stifled by the recession, high-interest rates and lower disposable income.    Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Crypto on fire - ETH and BTC are approaching price levels last seen in June
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) Price Reached The 50% Fibonacci Retracement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2022 17:07
Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Red line -resistance Black lines- Fibonacci retracements Ethereum made new lower lows earlier today at $1,423. Price has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement which was our next target after the rejection at $1,720 and the break of the support at $1,660. There are indications that price is preparing another bounce towards the important resistance trend line at $1,630. Price is making lower lows and lower highs after the top formation around $2,025. Price will remain vulnerable to more downside as long as it trades below the red trend line. Next downside target is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1,310. However first we should prepare for a bounce towards $1,600. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on Ethereum for August 29, 2022.
Crypto: Naturally, Fed's Jerome Powell Affected Cryptocurrency Market

Crypto: Naturally, Fed's Jerome Powell Affected Cryptocurrency Market

Geco One Geco One 29.08.2022 20:01
Bitcoin (BTC) In line with market expectations, the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve chairman last Friday contributed to a significant decline in the cryptocurrency market at the end of last week. This fact caused Bitcoin to increase the scale of the depreciation lasting from August 15 to over 22.5%, slipping to the lowest level since mid-July this year. If this sale continues, BTC could soon return to the June and July lows, that is, to the region of USD 19,000. However, it is possible that, due to the relatively calm start of the new week, Bitcoin will see a slight upward recovery soon before it returns to the downward path. The catalyst for another sell-off may be the Wednesday and Friday data from the US labour market, which will undoubtedly significantly impact the Fed’s decision on the September federal funds rate hike scale. Ethereum (ETH) Looking at the Ethereum quotes, we notice that the price of this cryptocurrency fell by over 17% in the second half of last week, increasing the range of the depreciation that has been taking place since August 14 this year to a low of 30%. This sell-off plunged the ETH price below $ 1,780 technical support and below $ 1,575. The market is currently testing another $ 1,400 support. However, if this barrier is also overcome, then Ethereum could drop to USD 1,250. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Over the past few days, Bitcoin Cash has slumped by over 20%, increasing the extent of the depreciation that has been ongoing since July 29 this year to nearly 33%. It also pushed the BCH back to $ 112, one of its lowest levels since mid-July. If the downward trend continues and the cryptocurrency drops below the currently tested support, it could continue its rally toward $ 97, which is another crucial support zone. Litecoin (LTC) Litecoin fell by 20% between August 14 and 20, breaking the bottom from an extended bullish wedge formation. This sell-off stopped at $ 52.50 technical support, where a demand response surfaced on August 20. Due to subsequent gains, the LTC returned to the ​​previously broken support (now resistance) area of $ 57.50, measuring a 38.2% Fibonacci correction from an earlier downward move. In the area of ​​this resistance, the supply response reappeared, and the quotes of this cryptocurrency once again fell to $ 52.50. Therefore, one can conclude that the LTC rate has stalled in the past few days in consolidation between the support at $ 52.50 and the resistance in the area of ​​$ 57.50. Given that the consolidations are corrective patterns and that the market had a downward move earlier, Litecoin is statistically more likely to break the bottom from the current layout, which could drive a further depreciation toward $ 42. Solana (SOL) We notice Solana’s quotations that the cryptocurrency has been moving from mid-June inside the bullish wedge formation. The last increases stopped in mid-August this year, near the upper limit of this system, where a supply reaction appeared again. The declines since then caused the SOL price to drop by almost 38%, breaking the bottom out of the wedge formation and beating the horizontal support of $ 32.50. If this trend continues, the quotations of this cryptocurrency could soon return to the region of the June lows, i.e. to USD 26. Polygon (MATIC) The Polygon cryptocurrency fell by more than 28% between August 14 and August 20 this year, slipping below technical support of $ 0.87. This sell-off stopped around the following support in the $ 0.75 region. The MATIC course has been in the horizontal trend for over a week. So we have a similar situation here as in the case of Litecoin. So if the currently tested support is permanently defeated, the MATIC could drop further to ​​$ 0.61, $ 0.45, or even $ 0.32. Ripple (XRP) Looking at the XRP quotations, we will notice that the price of this cryptocurrency has remained within a parallel growth channel since mid-June this year. After rebounding from the upper limit of this system at the end of July this year, the XRP rate stuck in a horizontal trend just below the local resistance of USD 0.39. The supply pressure observed on August 18 and 19 contributed to breaking the bottom out of this system. Moments later, the upward trend line was also broken, which was the lower boundary of the entire growth channel. This sale stopped only in the vicinity of the technical support of $ 0.3330, where there was a slight demand response on August 20 this year. However, the subsequent rebound only contributed to a re-test of the upward trend line and the previously defeated support (now resistance) of $ 0.36, which was the lower bound to the earlier consolidation. In reaction to the hawkish speech of the Fed chairman last Friday, the XRP rate rebounded from this resistance, and on Sunday, it fell even below the support of USD 0.333. If the downward trend continues, the price of this cryptocurrency could return to USD 0.30. Nem (XEM) We could also expect a continuation of declines in the Nem cryptocurrency quotes. Its price has dropped by more than 30% since August 11 this year, beating technical support of USD 0.048 and USD 0.043. If this trend continues, XEM could return to the May, June and July lows to the technical support of USD 0.037. Chainlink (LINK) We could also expect further declines in the Chainlink quotation. The LINK exchange rate rebounded on August 13 this year from the technical resistance of USD 9.30, the upper limit of the consolidation lasting from the first half of May this year. The recent sell-off contributed to the defeat of local support around USD 7.20, which may naturally drive a further depreciation towards the lower limit of the said consolidation, i.e. to USD 5.90.
Inflation Resurgence in Australia: RBA's Rate Cycle Uncertainty

Crypto: ETH/USD. Fans Of Sweets Are Becoming Fans Of Crypto

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2022 10:38
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Crypto Industry News: Mars Incorporated has signed an agreement with Universal Music Group. The latter company handles image licenses from NFT collectors who make up the virtual metaverse team - KINGSHIP. It's about graphics from BAYC and MAYC. As part of the new collaboration, there was a fairly original promotion of the NFT. Mars has released a limited edition of its sweets under the sign of two "MM". A gold gift box from M & M's hit the market. The number of such boxes was limited to only 100 pieces. According to the company, the series has already been sold out. The cost of one package was $ 99.99. However, this is not the end. Fans of sweets will also be able to buy brown boxes, which are a continuation of the "golden" ones. These will be numbered 101 to 4,000 and are still available. We encourage you, if you think it's worth spending $ 59.99 on candy. On top of all this, there are jars from M & M's printed with the image of the characters from the BAYC and MAYC series by KINGSHIP. Expense? Only $ 39.99. The jars were numbered from 1 to 6,000. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance seen at $1,530 - $1,559 and the bounce continues higher towards the level of $16,54. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,358 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,532 WR2 - $1,486 WR1 - $1,468 Weekly Pivot - $1,444 WS1 - $1,424 WS2 - $1,400 WS3 - $1,355 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 30, 2022
Mt. Gox's Recovered Bitcoins Seems Not To Be Paid Back To Creditors This Month

Mt. Gox's Recovered Bitcoins Seems Not To Be Paid Back To Creditors This Month

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.08.2022 15:06
Summary:  Since the largest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox was hacked in 2014, the trustee has managed to recover around 141,000 out of 850,000 Bitcoins. The recovered Bitcoins were rumored to be paid back to creditors this August. Yet, it seems that it will not occur in the next months, making the market wait in fear of potential imminent selling pressure. The market anxiously awaits 141,000 Bitcoins from Mt. Gox In 2014, the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time called Mt. Gox leaked a total of 850,000 Bitcoins through a hack. Out of a maximum supply of 21mn Bitcoins, the hack is the most consequential in the history of crypto, although there have been many other hacks. Though, the trustee managed to recover around 141,000 Bitcoins, which have to date not been paid out to creditors; that is clients with Bitcoins deposited to Mt. Gox back in the days. With a recovery plan approved by creditors last year, the payout is undoubtedly coming closer. It was rumored in July to take place this August. However, it now seems that it is still months away, as the repayment system is not yet live. Although the Bitcoins are likely not to be repaid in the coming months, it is expected to take place at some point. The market has been severely anxious with respect to the 141,000 Bitcoins potentially flooding the market immediately following the payout, since creditors may see it as a race in liquidating the Bitcoins before everyone else. Since Mt. Gox was hacked, the value of the Bitcoins has increased by a factor of 35, so the creditors might want to secure some profit. What speaks against this race to liquidate the Bitcoins is that the trustee is likely to repay the Bitcoins in installments one at a time. Likewise, these creditors are mainly strong Bitcoin advocates soon having been around for a decade. A substantial portion of them have already made life-changing money, so they are less prone to sell the Bitcoins. As the past has often proved, the anticipation of imminent heavy selling pressure is often more powerful for a potential downward trajectory than the selling pressure itself. Strictly speaking, we do not expect the repayment to pose heavy selling pressure, particularly if it occurs in relatively minor installments at a time. Yet, we have our eyes on the market’s anticipation of the repayment, because it might spread fear across the market since it is predominantly dominated by retail more inclined to fear. See you on the other side, dear NFT hype The crypto trend of 2021 was arguably non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The biggest winner of this trend was the largest NFT marketplace OpenSea, facilitating a volume worth $14bn in 2021. While OpenSea started the year nicely with an all-time high monthly volume of over $5bn in January, it has since seen its volume decline massively. OpenSea has recorded a volume worth $480mn in August so far, in which its volume barely exceeds $10mn some days. The declining volume is mainly a result of a less speculative market combined with diminished prices denominated in Ether and even more in dollar terms. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Source: Crypto Weekly: Anxiously awaiting 141,000 Bitcoins
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Week Full Of Important Economic Events That Directly Affect The quotes Of ETH. Ethereum in an upward trend?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2022 16:34
The main altcoin continued its downward movement following Bitcoin, which broke through the $20k level amid disappointing statements by the head of the Fed. The situation around the altcoin looks more alarming given the presence of fundamental grounds for growth. However, the market is seeing signs of declining trading activity on the ETH network. A lot of questions are raised by the strategy of "whales," who are actively transferring ether coins to crypto exchanges, emptying cold wallets. Market participants regard this as an intention to sell large amounts of ETH and collapse the price.     The fundamental background in the form of the Merge update failed to save Ethereum from a direct correlation with stock indices. According to Santiment data, Ethereum closely follows the S&P 500 stock index. This proves the high level of Ethereum's dependence on macroeconomic events and also indicates that the upward movement of the cryptocurrency is limited by correlation with stock assets. Another negative factor was the announcement of the major crypto mining pool AntPool. The Bitmain subsidiary will not support client assets in Ethereum after the Merge update.     The resonant statement of AntPool is justified and goes far beyond the statement of one mining company. The fact is that the crypto community is seriously concerned about the issue of Ethereum censorship after the transition to PoS. This is largely dictated by the US sanctions policy regarding Tornado Cash. The position of Ethereum as one of the alternatives to the classical financial system, free from outside influence, has been significantly shaken. Investors are evaluating the risks of moving their assets to Ethereum 2.0 due to the chance of being censored and losing their funds. All these factors have become a catalyst for the decline in ether quotes last week.     However, the wide discourse around the ETH merger has favorably influenced the current position of the cryptocurrency. A temporary decrease in activity in the altcoin network led to a significant drop in fees. As of August 30, the transaction fee on the Ethereum network is $0.39. This provoked a lot of interest in the Ethereum network, due to which the number of addresses with a non-zero balance reached a new record at around 85,456,864. After a local pause, the Ethereum network also recorded an increase in trading volumes, which fully corresponds to the technical picture of what is happening with ETH.     Technically, Ethereum is showing resilience to selling pressure. The coin again fell to $1,500 but subsequently successfully defended this frontier. Following the results of August 29, a strong buying signal formed on the altcoin's daily chart. After testing the $1,500 level, Ethereum formed a "bullish absorption" pattern, suggesting the activation of buyers. It is important to note that the size of the bullish candle is twice the volume of the red candle for August 28. This is a positive signal that may indicate the emergence of an upward trend.   Just as importantly, thanks to the integrity of the $1,500 mark, ETH keeps the cup and handle pattern relevant. Therefore, the potential for an upward movement with a target up to $2,800 also remains relevant for the coming months. Despite the formation of a strong bullish signal, the technical charts do not look encouraging. The MACD indicator continues its downward movement in the red zone, which indicates that only a short-term upward trend is likely to form. The RSI index and the stochastic oscillator tried to develop an upward spurt during the formation of the "absorption" but subsequently acquired a flat direction.   Ethereum ends the last month of summer in uncertainty. Buying activity and institutional attention remain at a decent level, but this process does not find a significant reflection on the cryptocurrency charts. However, on the daily chart of Ethereum, we see clear signs of a decrease in correlation with the S&P 500. This is an important part of preparing for an upward movement before the confluence, as a drop in the level of correlation makes the altcoin more independent. As for the short term, ETH is able to reach the $1,700–$1,850 area. However, this week is full of important economic events that directly affect the quotes of ETH, SPX, and Bitcoin. For example, PMI data and non-agricultural employment data in the US economy will be released. These indicators play a key role in shaping Fed policy. With this in mind, we should expect increased volatility, in the coming days, rather than systematic growth towards certain targets. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320276
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

The Down Trend On The Ethereum. The ETH/USD Pair Has Broken Above The Technical Resistanc

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 09:32
Crypto Industry News: Cryptocurrencies continue to face varying responses from governments around the world as some have accepted an emerging asset class while others try to ban certain aspects of their use to protect their financial interests. Japan sits firmly in the camp of promoting the benefits of cryptocurrency, as evidenced by a new proposal from the Financial Services Agency (FSA), a national financial regulator, which aims to ease the corporate tax on cryptocurrency profits to help bolster the economy. Based on a proposed revision, the FSA is trying to exclude companies from paying taxes on the paper-based cryptocurrency profits they hold after they are released. It also calls for the improvement of the scheme that gives tax credits to individual investors. The agency is taking this step to support Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's "New Capitalism" vision, which aims to revive the world's third largest economy. As part of his goal, Kishida is committed to helping Web3 businesses grow in the country and double the wealth of households. The current corporate tax rate of 30% is applied to profits from cryptocurrency holdings, including unrealized gains, prompting some companies to relocate to Singapore or other jurisdictions. This move by the FSA aims to combat this problem and encourage these companies to stay in Japan. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance seen at $1,530 - $1,559, is up 13,67% and the market is consolidating the recent gains around the upper channel line. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,654. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,358 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,532 WR2 - $1,486 WR1 - $1,468 Weekly Pivot - $1,444 WS1 - $1,424 WS2 - $1,400 WS3 - $1,355 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/290943
Scottie Pippen (Basketball Player) Received A Personalized NFT

The Cryptocurrency Market Expects The Worst Decline In Bitcoin

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 14:31
Bitcoin price plunged below $20,000. It was another day of disappointing activity in the crypto market as prices dipped in the absence of any major events, which is typical of a crypto winter. The bulls should show more strength to break the downward trend, which is still evident on the daily chart. The bears still have a small overall short-term technical advantage. As for where the price could move next based on the current state of the market, analysts warn of the possibility of a decline to $11,000 at worst, while noting that at the moment, at best, support is at the 2017 high. Boring day in the altcoin market: Activity in the altcoin market largely reflected the performance of bitcoin, with most tokens trading flat the day after an early decline. Ethereum (ETH) staking platform Lido DAO (LDO) leads altcoins for the second day in a row, gaining 11.3% as the Ethereum merger date approaches. Other notable indicators include a 9.75% increase for MXC (MXC) and a 9.54% increase for the Curve DAO (CRV) token. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently stands at $985 billion, with a Bitcoin dominance rate of 39.3%.     Relevance up to 12:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320565
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

The Merge Plans To Support Only NFTs That Are Based On The Ethereum Blockchain

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 11:09
Crypto Industry News: OpenSea, the world's largest NFT market, after The Merge enters into force, plans to support only those NFTs that are based on the proof-of-stake version of the Ethereum blockchain. "First and foremost, we are solely committed to supporting the NFT in the updated PoS [Proof-of-Stake] chain"- said OpenSea in a series of tweets published at the end of August. This is important information because the platform is a tycoon when it comes to NFT trading. So far, Ethereum-related NFTs have been sold on it for around $ 31 billion, The Block reports. All of this sum - which eclipses the volume of NFT transactions linked to other blockchains - is for NFT trading, which is backed by the current version of Ethereum, which is based on Proof-of-Work (PoW). The aforementioned The Merge - the final stage of Ethereum's transition from PoW to PoS - means that Beacon Chain and its validators will become the new foundations of the ETH blockchain network. This will affect many different cryptocurrency projects that are already busy preparing for the switch. An example of the above would be the Ethermine mining pool. As of this writing, there are 222,657 active miners on Ethermine, totaling 261.1 terra hash per second (TH / s). After September 15, the pool will still support PoW mining, but only ethereum classic (ETC), ravencoin (RVN), ergo (ERGO) and beam (BEAM) will be affected. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance seen at $1,530 - $1,559, is up 13,67% and the market is consolidating the recent gains above the upper channel line. The local high was made at the level of $1,618, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,654. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,358 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,532 WR2 - $1,486 WR1 - $1,468 Weekly Pivot - $1,444 WS1 - $1,424 WS2 - $1,400 WS3 - $1,355 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the Ethereum might have been terminated at the level of $880. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Ethereum for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291135
Maker DAO launched Spark Protocol. SushiSwap rolled out its v3 concentrated liquidity pools

The Uniswap Company Is Interested In Solving The Problems

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 02.09.2022 11:19
 Compound launches Compound III, a more streamlined version of the protocol. Arbitrum set for a major upgrade on 31 August. Uniswap eyes NFT financialisation with talks of NFT lending protocols. Weekly DeFi Index This week’s price, volume, and volatility indices were negative at -11.84%, -11.68%, and -25.42%, respectively. Check the latest prices on Crypto.com/Price DeFi Index Tokens News Highlight Compound, a borrowing and lending protocol on Ethereum, launched a new version called Compound III. It’s a streamlined version of the protocol with an emphasis on security, capital efficiency, and user experience. The biggest change is that the collateral remains the borrowers’ property and nobody else can borrow or withdraw it. Additionally, borrowers won’t earn interest on their collateral, which could enable them to borrow more with less risk of liquidation. Ethereum layer-2 scaling solution Arbitrum is set for a major upgrade on 31 August. Referred to as the ‘Nitro’ upgrade, it alleges to increase transaction throughput, slash transaction fees, and simplify cross-chain communication between Arbitrum and Ethereum.  Decentralised exchange Uniswap engaged in talks with multiple NFT lending protocols to build NFT financialisation. According to a social post from Uniswap’s head of NFT product, the company is interested in solving both liquidity issues and the “information asymmetry” surrounding NFTs. DEX Protocols Metrics Sources: CoinGecko, DeFi Llama, Nomics, Crypto.com Research Lending Protocols Metrics *LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio) = Total Borrowed / TVLSources: CoinGecko, DeFi Llama, Crypto.com Research Charts on Layer 2 Projects Overall, the L2 market continued the downtrend, dropping by -8.41% in the last week and the TVL of all L2 categories fell. Optimistic rollup projects dropped by -7.61% and zero-knowledge rollup projects decreased by -3.50%. Ethereum’s TVL fell by -4.69%. The TVL for all major optimistic rollup projects were negative last week, and Boba Network plunged the most at -16.50%. Similarly, almost all ZK rollup projects’ TVL declined except dYdX, of which its TVL kept stable and grew +0.21%. Loopring plummeted the most at -10.27%.
Cross-Chain Interoperability Solutions Have The Potential To Significantly Improve

Will September Be A Challenge For Cryptocurrencies Market?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 14:26
The cryptocurrency market came under pressure on Thursday along with global financial markets as the US dollar index surged to its highest level since September 2002, at 109.96. As the dollar rose, few assets were retained: the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ were all in the red, down 1.03%, 0.45% and 1.81%, respectively. History shows that September can be challenging for the financial markets. As for when volatility will subside, it may continue for some time as bullish traders are still overwhelmed by bears. Further evidence that Bitcoin sentiment remains negative was provided by crypto analytics firm Santiment, which showed an increase in average BTC funding rates. According to the average BTC funding rate on Binance, BitMEX, DYDX and FTX, the reaction to Friday's drop was the most aggressive since May, as repoted by Santiment. Ethereum shorts are accumulating. One of the biggest stories in cryptocurrency right now is the upcoming Ethereum (ETH) merger, projected to happen on September 15. At a time when many expected a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event, it starts to look like the merger has already been booked, prompting investors to position themselves ahead of a potential price drop. Santiment did warn to go along with the expected Ether price pullback, highlighting the fact that price increases have historically been more common under such conditions. In general, it was a negative day for the crypto market. A quiet day in the altcoin market: Of the top 200 coins listed on CoinMarketCap, Decred (DCR), which added $11.7, was the best performer for the day, followed by an 11% gain in Balancer (BAL). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently stands at $967 billion, with a 39% Bitcoin dominance rate.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320663
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

Ethereum's Merge Is Almost Here. What Is Ethereum Name Service (ENS)?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 03.09.2022 23:08
The impending Merge (transition from POW to POS) of ethereum seems to be affecting ENS domain sales. Major crypto companies are not staying idle in the face of the chain transition and are becoming big stakeholders in the test "Beacon Chain". Ethereum Name Service (ENS), is a project that offers naming and recognition services for ETH wallets, in an operation similar to Internet domain naming, or DNS (domain name service). August became the third-best month in its annual history after ENS domains accounted for 2744 ETH or around $4.3 million in revenue.  According to ENS data for the past month, as many as 301,000 new .eth domain registrations were made and 34,000 new accounts were opened using at least one ENS name. The total of all .eth registrations now stands at 2.2 million names. The biggest convenience of the Ethereum Name Service is the ability to identify an ETH wallet by a short unique name in the .eth domain, instead of by an approximately 42-digit code. This simplifies token and NFTs transfers, as well as facilitates payments. In addition to these benefits, .eth domains, like .com, .net or .org internet domains, could be sold and may have their own unique NFTs.  The mentioned Merge involves ethereum moving from a proof-of-work blockchain to a proof-of-stake which, in a nutshell, means a different system of validating (confirming) transactions that are more energy efficient and cheaper, due to the use of economies of scale. ENS address registrations appear to be accelerating steadily. The record to date was set in July, when some 378,000 new names were registered. Although the role of domains in Merge itself is rather small, their increasing number may be a sign of the growing interest in ETH and the move to a cheaper and more efficient proof-of-stake (POS) infrastructure. The inevitable centralisation of DeFi? According to data from Dune Analytics and Nansen, crypto companies provide more than 66% of the staked ETH. This means that most companies such as Lido, Coinbase and Binance are likely to be responsible for a large proportion of transaction validation on the new ethereum system. Such entities, called validators, are supposed to be a kind of 'thread' of the new POS system. They will be responsible for storing data, processing transactions and adding more blocks to the chain. Each validator is expected to hold a min. 32 ETH - at the current price, this is approximately $51,000. Holding tokens makes such entities large depositories across the blockchain. This news has raised discussion on social media regarding the centralisation of the new blockchain, because with so much validation of POS transfers from institutions, can we really talk about DeFi? It seems that the ETH developers are aware of this drawback, but in order to make ETH efficient, reduce costs and further develop the ecosystem, they have decided to move towards a proof-of-stake blockchain. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, ETH is gaining around 0.5% today at 11:30 GMT+3, already drawing its sixth daily bull candle. The consolidation seems to have put the token's price above the 10 and 100-day moving averages. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: The Ethereum Name Service reports third-best month ever (conotoxia.com)
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Lost Almost 0.5%, ETH/USD Gained Ca. 6%

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Lost Almost 0.5%, ETH/USD Gained Ca. 6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 05.09.2022 08:56
Market picture Bitcoin declined 0.4% over the past week, ending at around $19,900 without experiencing any significant movement during that time. For now, we can only say that the crypto market is wagering on the strengthening of the dollar, and to a markedly lesser extent than other markets. Ethereum added 5.9% to $1570, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 1.3% (BNB) to a growth of 13% (Cardano). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 2.5% over the week to $976bn. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index lost 8 points over the week to 20, returning to "extreme fear" status. Read next: ECB Will Continue To Hike Rates To Slow Inflation? | FXMAG.COM Bitcoin stood aloof from key market movements last week, moving on a short leash around $20K. Meanwhile, tectonic shifts were taking place in the markets as the dollar continued to renew multi-year highs and stock markets returned to a sell-off. Cardano rose sharply at the end of the week on the back of the news. IOHK, the company behind the Cardano project, has set a date for Vasil's update - the largest and most important hardfork in the project's history will take place on September 22. News background According to analytics service TipRanks, HODLers are refusing to sell the cryptocurrency. 62% of wallets hold bitcoins for more than one year. 32% of addresses control BTC for 1 to 12 months, and only 6% of investors hold cryptocurrency for less than 30 days. At the same time, both profitable and unprofitable addresses have a 48% share. Bitcoin miners' revenues in August amounted to $657 million and increased for the first time since March. The growth in revenues was helped by the growth of the first cryptocurrency's network hash rate. Despite the crisis, investor confidence in cryptocurrencies increased slightly over the quarter. 65% of retail investors and 70% of institutional investors trust digital assets, according to a survey by cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp. Read next: Rising Interest Rates. How High Can They Rise?| FXMAG.COM Cryptocurrencies are helped by the aura that, in the long term, they are more promising than stocks and other risky assets, as they are at an early stage of adoption and still undervalued by the market. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin called the current bear cycle expected. In his view, Terra's collapse and market decline are a boon for the crypto industry, as they help identify problems and unsustainable business models well. With the rising capitalisation of the crypto market, the DeFi sector could pose long-term risks to financial stability, according to the US Federal Reserve.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

FIFA Is Preparing To Open A New NFT Token Platform. The ETH/USD Pair Move To The Upside

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 11:06
Crypto Industry News: The International Football Federation (FIFA) is gearing up to open its new NFT token platform later this month. To start with, FIFA + Collect will release a number of initial token collections and reveal details of its upcoming exclusive and limited collections, the organization said in a published press release. The digital collections will represent unforgettable moments from soccer matches and feature iconic art and photos from the FIFA World Cup and the FIFA Women's World Cup. "This exciting announcement makes FIFA collectibles available to every soccer fan, demonstrating the possibility of owning part of the FIFA World Cup. [...] Fandom is changing and soccer fans around the world are engaging in new and exciting ways ... Like sports memorabilia and stickers, this is an opportunity available for fans around the world to connect with their favorite players, moments and more "commented Romy Gai, Chief Business Officer of FIFA. FIFA + Collect will be available on FIFA +, the federation's digital platform that provides access to live soccer matches from around the world, interactive games, news, tournament information and other original content. FIFA + Collect will initially be available in three languages - English, French and Spanish - with more coming soon, as well as on web and mobile devices. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had extended its move to the upside, was up 15,76% at one point during the weekend, however, the bulls were having problems with the technical resistance located at $1,654. The immediate technical support is seen at $1,530, but the key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,425 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive, but not that strong and is hovers very close to the level of fifty. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,624 WR2 - $1,598 WR1 - $1,581 Weekly Pivot - $1,572 WS1 - $1,555 WS2 - $1,546 WS3 - $1,520 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been doing the lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291355
2022: The office market in transition

2022: The office market in transition

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 31.01.2022 15:40
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 31.01.2022 Bartłomiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO of Walter Herz In the upcoming time, modern workplaces, full of new technologies and creating a friendly environment for users, will gain more and more importance. Office buildings operating in accordance with ESG principles, new environmental, social and corporate governance, especially those located in the city centers will take the leading position. Further changes on the office market will be largely determined by the pace of adaptation of the hybrid work model in companies. If we look at today's market, we can see that hybrid work is slowly becoming the norm. Companies are open to this model, which is related to the preferences of employees, who more and more often expect employers to be more flexible in the choice of the form of work and working hours. Many young people base their interest in the job offer and the willingness to take part in the recruitment on it. Therefore, in the upcoming years, offices will evolve into spaces adapted to the rotational work model. Clearly, it is not possible to introduce a division into remote and office work in all sectors. However, for example, in the area of IT, finance, administration and accounting, or services for business, marketing, customer service and HR, we can expect a gradual spread of the hybrid work model. Flexible rental option In the upcoming years, some companies will probably decide to reduce the amount of office space they occupy. Although the scale of this phenomenon so far, contrary to appearances, is not as large as it may be assumed, the tendency is visible. Certainly, tenants will also look for increasingly flexible solutions, thanks to which they will be able to use office space in many ways, adapting it on an ongoing basis to the changing needs of the company. The number of companies that will decide on the core & flex option, assuming a combination of traditional space and the use of flexible space, will increase. This direction in the selection of space for work by entrepreneurs is noticed by the owners of office real estate, who include flexible spaces in the pool of amenities in their buildings. It is also grist to the mill to the companies offering flex space. The segment is systematically growing. This year, more coworking spaces are scheduled to be opened all over Poland. It is likely that an increasingly popular option will also be subscriptions to access coworking networks with space available in various locations. It should be noted that buildings located in central parts of the cities are now even more popular than before. This is visible in, for example, last year's lease structure in Warsaw, where most of the leased space was located in the city center. The offices themselves are also changing. Their space is even more adapted to interactive group work. It gains open space, which, with low office occupancy, gives employees a sense of greater comfort. At the same time, access to quiet working areas and social areas is also important. New investors We are glad that many entities are planning to enter the Polish market. It will result in spaces potentially reduced by some industries, gaining new occupants. One of the main sectors that has been dynamically developing in Poland for years, and is the tenant of a large part of offices is the industry that provides modern services for business. Growing employment in this segment is related to the constant influx of new investors to our country and the development of organizations already present on the Polish market. Large-scale recruitment is taking place in the sector. Most jobs are offered today by companies from Great Britain, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, which have recently decided to transfer their services to our country. Sector companies are constantly opening new recruitment processes, but there are fewer candidates than job positions. Also in this industry, the expectations of employees and employers differ. Most of the employees, who are generally flooded with job offers, expect to work in a hybrid or fully remote system, while the employers want to return to the offices. I believe that this year we can expect more tenant activity, which will translate into a decline in the office vacancy rate in the country. Across the world, we can already observe a great return to offices. Symptoms of the reversal of the downward trend in the office sector could already be observed on our market in the last quarter of 2021. In Warsaw, in the last three months of last year, tenant activity returned to the level seen before the pandemic. Only the fourth quarter of last year was responsible for as much as 40 per cent of space leased on the Warsaw market throughout all of 2021. Last year, the demand for Warsaw offices reached almost 650 thousand sq m. of space, while almost 325 thousand sq m. of new offices were launched onto the market. Almost 80 per cent of the commissioned space is located in the center. Similarly, most of the contracted offices are located centrally. Demand is rising, supply is dropping Unfortunately, most office investments are still frozen. Developers are cautious about building new projects. In Warsaw, half as much office space is under construction compared to 2019. Investments are being slowed down by the rapidly growing costs of real estate development, amidst unstable market conditions. If the situation does not change and new projects are not launched in the next 2-3 years, we may have a shortage of space in the main office markets in the country. On the other hand, the activity of investors is growing, but they have more and more requirements in terms of the quality of buildings, including ESG. There is a growing demand for modern office buildings that meet restrictive requirements related to ecological parameters, located in the largest cities in the country. The estimated value of the transaction volume on the investment market in Poland in 2021, is similar to the level achieved in 2020. However, we expect an increase in the dynamics of the investment market in the upcoming months and a greater inflow of capital to Poland. There are many transactions concerning projects from the office segment that have recently entered the market that are being negotiated nowadays, therefore this year should bring an improvement in results. Critical ESG ESG issues will be of key importance for investors' decisions. It is not only about the growing general awareness of sustainable development and the impact of construction and buildings on the environment, but also about the adopted requirements and the related need to report on ESG activities. Investment strategies will be closely connected to the acquisition of assets and cooperation with companies that offer a product that meets environmental requirements. It will have a significant impact on the real estate market in the upcoming years and the value of assets. Investors and tenants will expect low-emission office buildings, or plans to achieve that goal. Facilities offering solutions in the area of ​​climate technologies will gain a competitive advantage. Trends related to the certification of buildings in terms of user-friendly impact and guaranteeing their full safety, will also become stronger. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Meitu Reported An Loss, In CME Bitcoin futures Dropped To The Lowest Level

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 05.09.2022 13:58
ETH perpetual futures funding rates at record lows. BTC options skews spiking as puts are being bid up. BTC hovering around short-term RSI oversold levels. Chart of the Week: Perps Funding Rates at New Lows There has been a flurry of activity in ETH derivatives markets as the expected mid-September date of The Merge closes in. Perpetual futures funding rates are printing at record negative levels, potentially implying caution from traders as they look to hedge downside risks. Previous issues of Market Pulse highlighted record open interest in options and record negative futures basis.  Fund Flow Tracker Aggregated exchange balance of ETH fell sharply to new lows during the past week, while BTC’s saw a bounce. Derivatives Pulse The BTC put-call ratio and skews (puts-minus calls) rose over the past week, implying increased cautious sentiment. Implied vols for both BTC and ETH were mostly flat during the past week. 1-week implied vol currently stands at 60.3% (vs. 65.3% a week ago) and 89.1% (vs. 98.9% a week ago) for BTC and ETH, respectively. Asset managers’ net-long position in CME Bitcoin futures dropped to the lowest level since February 2022, and leveraged traders’ net-short position continues to reduce.  Leveraged traders are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including commodity trading advisors and commodity pool operators. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading, and trading on behalf of speculative clients. The asset manager category consists of institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds, and those portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional. The dealer category consists of participants typically described as the “sell-side” of the market. These include large banks and dealers in securities, swaps, and other derivatives. The other reportable category consists of traders mostly using markets to hedge business risk, and includes amongst others corporate treasuries. Technically Speaking The drop in BTC price has it hovering around short-term oversold levels based on the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). Price Movements News Highlights Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, has launched Euro-denominated Bitcoin and Ether futures. Meitu reported an impairment loss of over US$43M on its crypto holdings. Credit Suisse disclosed that it held US$31M in “digital assets” for clients as at the end of Q2 2022. Stacked, a Web3 streaming platform, has completed a US$12.9M Series-A funding round led by Pantera Capital. Catalyst Calendar Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

The ETH/USD Pair Move To The Upside. The Faster Implementation Date Of Vasil Hard Fork

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 09:21
Crypto Industry News: The organization that builds the Cardano blockchain (ADA) Input Output Global has confirmed the date of the long-awaited Vasil hard fork. It will be carried out on September 22, which is roughly a week after Ethereum Merge. Cardano's price response looks quite lethargic despite the positive news, which perfectly illustrates the terrible sentiment on the cryptocurrency market. The quick deadline of the fork is all the more surprising because in the past developers reported postponing the event due to a significant amount of bugs and ambiguities during testing. At the same time, Cardano developers with Charles Hoskinson are rather meticulous, so the faster implementation date is rather a glove to Ethereum, because according to the developers it is Vasil's hard fork that is the most significant update of Cardano in history, which will ultimately increase network bandwidth and ensure lower transaction costs thanks to which it will increase the competitiveness against the recently popular Bitgert. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had extended its move to the upside again. The bulls had managed to rally 17.62% so far and are currently testing the technical resistance located at $1,654. The immediate technical support is seen at $1,530, but the key short-term technical support is located at the level of $1,425 and if clearly violated, then the next target for bears is located at $1,281. The momentum is positive and very strong, however the overbought market conditions can be seen on the H4 time frame chart. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,624 WR2 - $1,598 WR1 - $1,581 Weekly Pivot - $1,572 WS1 - $1,555 WS2 - $1,546 WS3 - $1,520 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been doing the lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.           Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291532
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

The Ethereum Crypto Is Currently Testing The Fibonacci

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 13:33
Technical outlook: Ethereum climbed through the $1,675 high during the early trading hours on Tuesday as was projected earlier. The crypto is seen to be trading close to $1,665 at this point in writing and is expected to push through $1,745 and up to $1,800 in the near term. As projected on the 4H chart here, the resistance zone is seen through the $1,800-05 area. Ethereum has already carved a meaningful downswing between $2,031 and $1,423 since August 14. The above drop is being worked upon and might retrace up to the Fibonacci 0.618 levels seen at about the $1,800 mark. Immediate price resistance is seen at $1,722 and a push higher will test $1,750 and above. The bears might be poised to come back in control thereafter. Ethereum is currently working to carve a counter-trend rally since printing lows at $1,423. The crypto is currently testing the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the above downswing and might correct lower. ETH is expected to resume towards $1,800 thereafter. Keep a watch at around $1,540 for intraday support. Trading plan: Potential rally through $1,800 against $1,400 Good luck!     Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291596
Ethereum Prices Should Hold Above Interim Support To Keep The Bullish Structure Intact

The Situation Around ETH/USD Is Becoming More And More Bullish

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 14:38
The cryptocurrency market is approaching a controversial period—autumn. On the one hand, the market has cheered up due to the upcoming Merge update and the likely easing of monetary policy due to the US congressional elections in November. At the same time, Bitcoin has historically had a bad September. The probability of maintaining this trend increases significantly, given the high probability of a 75 basis point rate hike. Despite all the inconsistency of the situation, Bitcoin and Ethereum still have chances to spend September on a bullish note. Bitcoin remains within the narrow range of fluctuations of $19k–$20k. The area formed after the breakdown of the key support level at $20.8k. Bearish pressure forced the cryptocurrency to move to the consolidation stage, but the process is moving very slowly. Glassnode experts note that BTC network activity is at a local low. Given the volatile nature of the upcoming economic events, the probability of an increase in trading volumes increases significantly. The current lull is also fundamental. Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in September, according to BBG analysts. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Cato Institute conference. Given the market reaction to the official's previous speech, there is every reason to believe that Powell will give the market clues about the Fed's next steps. Given the pessimistic expectations of the market, hints of a rate hike within 50 basis points could have a positive impact on the short-term prospects for the cryptocurrency market. The ECB meeting will be the second major event on Thursday. The meeting of the Bank will consider the issue of the level of the key interest rate and the interest rate on the deposit line. Most experts are inclined to increase the indicator by 100 and 50 basis points, respectively. For the cryptocurrency market, this will be a negative signal, as it will untie the hands of the Fed and allow you not to look back at the position of the euro against the US dollar. For the most part, Thursday will show which direction the stock and crypto markets will move in the coming weeks. Technically, Bitcoin continues to trade sideways for the tenth day in a row. Trading volumes remain low, which does not allow one of the parties to take the initiative. Technical indicators continue to move sideways without the presence of impulse movements in any of the directions. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator once again tries to enter the green zone, forming a bullish crossover. However, given the trading volumes, this attempt will not be successful. With regard to BTC/USD, the bearish idea remains relevant with a gradual breakdown of the $19k–$19.5k support zone, after which the asset may retest the local bottom. As of September 6, Bitcoin does not have the potential to be bullish and consolidate above $20.5k. The long-awaited transition of Ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm begins today. Ethereum's bullish potential could increase significantly if the cryptocurrency manages to successfully complete the merger of networks as part of the first stage of the Merge. Against the backdrop of the process that has started, investor interest in ETH is starting to grow again. The cryptocurrency has successfully broken through the $1,600 level and continues its upward movement. Given the nervousness surrounding Ethereum's transition to the new algorithm, the importance of today's merger phase cannot be underestimated. If everything goes according to the planned scenario, then we can expect the continuation of the bullish movement to the $1,800–$2,000 range. Ether's technical metrics support the thesis that the recent drop in Ether was a healing corrective move. As of September 6, the bullish mood of ETH investors is again showing an upward trend. The Relative Strength Index crossed 40 and continues to move upward, indicating growing buying power. The stochastic oscillator indicates a high level of bullish sentiment and a fast implementation of bullish patterns. The situation around ETH/USD is becoming more and more bullish, and among the immediate targets of the asset, it is worth highlighting the range of $1,650–$1,700. If this area is broken, the price will go to the final resistance line for the last six months at $1,800–$2,000. These are the short-term goals of Ethereum with a favorable development of the situation. In the long term, the target of $2,800 remains relevant.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320933
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

Ethereum's Merge May Make ETH Officials-Friendly

ING Economics ING Economics 07.09.2022 09:21
The Ethereum blockchain is on the verge of a major and risky upgrade. This upgrade, if successful, would greatly reduce electricity use. This, in turn, would increase Ethereum’s acceptability to policymakers and financial institutions An ambitious upgrade to the world's second most important blockchain After a long period of anticipation, and if final tests go well, the world’s second blockchain Ethereum will probably transition from “proof of work” (PoW) to “proof of stake” (PoS) later this month. This means that transactions on the Ethereum blockchain will no longer be recorded by miners that spend a lot of computing power to prove they worked hard to verify transactions. After “the merge”, transactions will be processed by validators, that have staked Ether (in other words, put collateral in escrow) that can be forfeited if it turns out they were acting in bad faith. The discussion about the pros and cons of PoS vs PoW is almost as old as Bitcoin, and we can’t represent all arguments here. What we’re interested in, is that this transition to PoS may over time increase the acceptability of Ethereum, and all of the apps built on top of it, for policymakers and regulators. This in turn may provide a boost to traditional financial institutions' willingness to develop Ethereum-based services. Ethereum is not the first blockchain to adopt PoS. But it is generally considered the most important blockchain after Bitcoin, and Ethereum is a key building block of the decentralised finance universe. Moreover, Ethereum won’t go down for scheduled maintenance over the weekend to upgrade the network. Instead, as ethereum.org describes it, the new PoS-engine will be hot-swapped in mid-flight. A flight which hosts a variety of apps, tokens and platforms. What could go wrong? The stakes for the upgrade are high Indeed, while the Ethereum community has spent a lot of time testing PoS (the PoS testing ground called “beacon chain” has been running since December 2020), implementing such a fundamental upgrade while the network keeps running, is ambitious. As anyone who has ever tried to quickly upgrade the operating system on their computer will know, there are almost always unexpected hiccups that end up taking much more time than anticipated. We expect leading Ethereum developers to be pulling all-nighters glued to their screens during the upgrade. Another question during the upgrade is how Ethereum miners will respond. They have invested in dedicated hardware, typically GPUs, that can no longer be used for mining Ethereum after the upgrade to PoS. Some miners may decide to continue the PoW-based blockchain, creating a “fork”. Such a duplication of the blockchain with all its tokens creates a variety of problems e.g. for exchanges and traders. Luckily, the crypto community has gained experience managing such forks over the years. A successful upgrade would make Ethereum much more acceptable... Describing all these challenges, you may start to wonder why Ethereum embarked on this project at all. Apart from improved scalability, the main reason is a drastic reduction in electricity consumption. Ethereum.org claims a 99.95% reduction in electricity consumption following the switch to PoS. An important non-technical consequence of this great reduction in electricity need is that it may render Ethereum more palatable to policymakers and regulators. When the European Parliament discussed the EU’s incoming Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation earlier this year, sustainability was an important topic. Policymakers are uncomfortable with the PoW consensus mechanism’s high electricity use. To be sure, the pros and cons of PoW vs PoS are food for a fundamental and often heated debate, which has many more nuances than the –admittedly impressive– kWh figures suggest. We cannot do justice to this debate in this short piece. It is clear though that the switch to PoS removes power consumption as a problem for regulators. This, in turn, removes one stumbling block for traditional financial institutions and other companies to offer Ethereum-based services, although other obstacles may remain. ...though Proof-of-Stake is not the answer to life, the universe and everything either So what’s not to like about PoS? Apart from migration risks, PoS has its own challenges. For example, its code is much more complex than PoW. This may create new vulnerabilities. Hackers will certainly be exploring the new infrastructure for flaws. Another issue is that PoS creates a new form of inequality. With PoW, there once was a sense that everybody can join in and start mining. With PoS, in contrast, the “wealthy” can stake a lot of Ethereum and reap most of the validation rewards, further increasing their wealth. Yet the reality is more nuanced. PoS staking pools do provide opportunities for those with less Ether to spare. And with PoW on the other hand, the days that an old laptop was sufficient for mining, are long gone. Some people worry about increased possibilities for censorship by PoS validators. Yet in principle, PoW miners could apply censorship as well. It is also not evident that PoS will lead to a more concentrated validator landscape than PoW, where miners have been cooperating in mining pools for a long time. In the end, it’s less the technology that makes the difference, but rather the attitude –and regulation– of those using it. More generally, there is a tradeoff between censorship resistance and the application of anti-money laundering and sanctions policies which are required to render cryptocurrency acceptable to regulators. In the end, compromises need to be struck here.   Ethereum’s upcoming migration from PoW to PoS may be the biggest planned event in cryptoland this year. The migration itself and its aftermath carry risks, and will be closely watched within the crypto community. A successful migration would be a compliment to the Ethereum community’s ability to manage big events. It would also remove an important obstacle to acceptability of Ethereum to regulators and hence development of Ethereum-based services by traditional financial institutions. Read this article on THINK TagsSustainability Regulation Cryptocurrency Banks Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

How Does The Ethereum Market Look Like Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 09:50
Crypto Industry News: The Ethereum merger could force many cryptocurrency miners to give up and abandon their expensive mining rigs in the midst of a profit race. The transition of the Ethereum network from Evidence-of-Work (PoW) consensus is likely to flood the crypto industry with idle Etherum (ETH) miners, causing severe disruption to all PoW tokens. Andy Long, CEO of White Rock bitcoin mines, said in an interview that the upcoming Ethereum merger will force PoW miners to look for more profitable ways, such as other PoW blockchains, and thereby "flood" other coins - increasing the difficulty of mining and reducing profitability: "The hash rates will flow to alternative coin PoW GPUs, and many miners will simply give up and try to sell their graphics farms," he said. However, there are still many cryptocurrencies that will continue their PoW path, including BTC, Litecoin (LTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), as well as Ethereum Classic (ETC), Monero (XMR), Zcash (ZEC) and Ravencoin (RVN) . Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had managed to rally 17.62% before the rally was capped at the level of $1,685 and the Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern was made on the H4 time frame chart. The market reversed almost all of the recent gains and broke below the technical support located at the level of $1,530. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,476 and at the last swing low located at $1,425. The momentum is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,624 WR2 - $1,598 WR1 - $1,581 Weekly Pivot - $1,572 WS1 - $1,555 WS2 - $1,546 WS3 - $1,520 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been doing the lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291735
Maker DAO launched Spark Protocol. SushiSwap rolled out its v3 concentrated liquidity pools

Turning DAI Into A Free-floating Asset, The Bellatrix Hard Fork Was Activated

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 07.09.2022 11:42
Bellatrix goes live on Ethereum’s Beacon Chain. MakerDAO’s co-founder Rune proposes ‘Endgame Plan’ to free-float DAI. KyberSwap suffers front-end hack and attacker moves US$265,000 worth token. Weekly DeFi Index This week’s price and volume indices were negative at -4.42% and -15.98%, respectively, while the volatility index was positive at +30.46%. Check the latest prices on Crypto.com/Price DeFi Index Tokens News Highlight The Bellatrix hard fork, the last major upgrade before Ethereum’s The Merge, was activated at epoch 144896 on the Beacon Chain. The purpose of this upgrade is to ensure validators are producing updated Beacon Chain blocks that will set up the codebase ahead of The Merge. Now, the last step is Paris, which will trigger the migration from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake upon hitting a specific Terminal Total Difficulty of 58750000000000000000000 (expected between 10 to 20 September 2022). Following the sanction on Tornado Cash in August, MakerDAO Co-founder Rune Christensen proposed an “Endgame Plan” to save DAI from regulatory capture. The plan would gradually reduce the real-world assets exposure, with the eventual goal of turning DAI into a free-floating asset. The proposal has received divergent opinions from the MakerDAO community. Kyber Network, the liquidity protocol on which KyberSwap is built, confirmed a front-end hack on 2 September. The attacker compromised the app’s front-end through the Google Tag Manager (GTM) script, which is generally used to track user activity and data for analytical purposes. Although Kyber identified the malicious codes and fixed them in a few hours, the hacker managed to move US$265,000 worth of Aave Matic interest-bearing USDC (AMUSDC) tokens in four transactions. Charts on Layer 2 Projects Overall, the L2 market TVL downtrend narrowed down, dropping by -2.38% in the last week. Optimistic rollup projects dropped by -1.37% and zero-knowledge rollup projects decreased by -4.36%. Ethereum’s TVL increased by +1.71%. The TVL for all major optimistic rollup projects were negative last week, and Metis Andromeda declined the most at -4.28%. In ZK rollup projects, StarkNet was under the spotlight as its TVL grew by +4.49%, followed by ZKSwap 2.0 (+0.8%). Loopring and dYdX saw a decline in TVL at -4.95% and -4.97%, respectively.
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

The Ethereum Provide Us With An Important Bearish Signal

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 13:23
Blue line- neckline support In a previous analysis we noted the formation of a potential Head and Shoulders pattern in Ethereum. Price made a lower high yesterday and is turning lower towards the important short-term neckline support. Support is found at $1,717-10 area. A break below this level will activate the H&S pattern and provide us with an important bearish signal. Price continues making lower highs which is a sign of weakness. Ethereum remains vulnerable to more downside as long as price is below $1,720. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291786   Relevance up to 13:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291786
A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

Ethereum Classic (ETC) Saw Its Token Value Increase

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 09:23
Crypto Industry News: Industry experts warn of the potential consequences of the Ethereum merger for other cryptocurrencies that run on Proof of Work (PoW) consensus algorithms. With Ethereum moving to the proof-of-stake Beacon Chain, many miners will have a problem. Those who have secured the Ethereum blockchain will look to continue mining in other PoW chains. Ethereum Classic (ETC) saw its token value increase by more than 10% in early September when blockchain explorer and mining pool operator BTC.com launched the zero-fee ETC pool over a three-month period. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had reversed almost all of the recent losses and is currently back below the last local high seen at the level of $1,685. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $1,513 and $1,475. The momentum is strong and positive again on the H4 time frame chart, so the bulls are ready to break above the local high from $1,685 and test the nest technical resistance located at $1,722. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,624 WR2 - $1,598 WR1 - $1,581 Weekly Pivot - $1,572 WS1 - $1,555 WS2 - $1,546 WS3 - $1,520 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been doing the lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291899
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Ethereum: The Bulls Are Looking Poised To Remain In Control

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 14:22
Technical outlook: Ethereum has rallied through the $1,657 highs after recovering from the $1,489 lows on Wednesday. The price action is in line with our projection as the bulls prepare for another push towards $1,700-10 in the near term (intraday). The bulls are looking poised to remain in control holding prices above the $1,489 interim lows going forward. the price is looking higher towards $1,750 and $1,800. Ethereum has carved a larger-degree downswing between $2,031 and $1,423 as seen on the 4H chart here. Since then, the crypto has been unfolding a corrective rally, which seems to have completed two waves at $1,722 and $1,489. Further, the bulls are now progressing into the final wave towards $1,800, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the earlier drop. Ethereum is currently working on its first lower-degree upswing between $1,489 and $1,657-1,700. Once the price action is over, prices could drop lower in a corrective manner but they still stay above $1,489. The bulls will be poised to be back in control thereafter and push through $1,800 before giving in to the bears. $1,489 should remain intact for the above structure to hold. Trading plan: Potential rally towards $1,800 against $1,489 Good luck!     Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291999
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

Swiss SEBA Bank Announced The Introduction Of The ETH

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 09:39
Crypto Industry News: Swiss SEBA Bank announced the introduction of the ETH staking service for institutional clients. This will happen exactly when Ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus model is achieved. The bank today published a press release in which it informs that this move is a response to institutional demand. They show interest in such services as cryptocurrency staking and DeFi. The bank's platform to manage staking options will give its users the ability to use a variety of protocols, including Ethereum, Polkadot and Tezos. In the future, the Swiss company intends to launch similar services for additional protocols. Commenting on the growing demand from their customers for this type of service and the upcoming the Merge, director of technology and customer solutions at SEBA Bank, Mathias Schutz said: "The Merge Ethereum is an anticipated and significant milestone for the world's second largest cryptocurrency, providing users with improvements in the areas of security, scalability and sustainability. Launching our Ethereum staking services will enable institutional investors to play a key role in securing the future of the network through a trusted, trusted, secure network. a safe and fully regulated counterparty ". SEBA Bank is a cryptocurrency financial institution that is fully regulated by government institutions. It offers a wide range of solutions, including trade and credit services. By directing its activities towards Ethereum, the bank counts on acquiring new institutional clients who want to help secure the network. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen trading at the level of $1,720, which is abive the 100 DMA already. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1.722 (technical resistance), $1,785 and $1,819. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $1,513 and $1,654. The momentum is strong and positive again on the H4 time frame chart, so the short-term outlook for ETH remains bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,624 WR2 - $1,598 WR1 - $1,581 Weekly Pivot - $1,572 WS1 - $1,555 WS2 - $1,546 WS3 - $1,520 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been doing the lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9 Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292120
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Ethereum Confidently Maintained Its Bullish Positions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 11:29
While Bitcoin fell below $19k and was on the verge of falling to the local bottom, Ethereum confidently maintained its bullish positions. After a local recovery impulse of the first cryptocurrency, the main altcoin resumed its upward movement. The asset has reached the upper boundary of the resistance zone and, as of this writing, is trying to gain a foothold above the $1,700 level. In general, the altcoin successfully implements the bullish market momentum ahead of the Merge update. However, should we expect a full-fledged upward movement of the cryptocurrency shortly before the merger? From the fundamental point of view, the answer to this question seems not so obvious. Two days ago, the Bellatrix update took place on the Ethereum network, which became the final chord of preparing the altcoin for the transition to PoS. The upgrade was successful, but investors had some doubts. They were dictated by a significant increase in the number of missed blocks in the ETH network after the Bellatrix update. The indicator increased by 1,700%, and the number of blocks that did not pass the check on the first attempt reached 9%, against the norm of 0.5%. The Ethereum developers said that the problem was related to nodes that did not install new software. It is reported that about 25% of the nodes are using the old collateral, but even a small percentage caused failures in the ETH network. Questions about the decentralization of Ethereum are also gaining momentum, because more than 50% of all ETH nodes are made up of the United States and Germany. Amazon is the end user of more than 50% of Ethereum nodes, and the Geth open source project remains the main enabler for most of the nodes. However, judging by the growing volumes of trading and the increase in addresses, the market is not very worried about the possibility of transactional censorship. The situation with the update of Ethereum remains stable and interest in the main altcoin is growing. Given the fundamental interest of investors in Ethereum, a similar situation should be observed in technical metrics. On the daily chart, Ethereum remains bullish. The price managed to hold the key support level at $1,400. Thanks to this, the "cup and handle" pattern remains relevant and, consequently, the bullish potential of the price movement to $2,700-$2,800. Technical indicators also confirm the bullish market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index crossed the 50 level and continues to move up, which indicates growing buying volumes. The stochastic oscillator is also successfully implementing bullish impulses and is approaching the overbought zone. Given the proximity and fundamental nature of the Merge update, the metric will remain close to this zone until the merge is completed. An important and positive signal for the ether was the fall in the level of Bitcoin dominance to 36%. Subsequently, the metric recovered to 39%. However, this is direct evidence that Ethereum is temporarily at a higher investment preference than Bitcoin. In other words, the main flows of investments, including institutional ones, are directed to the main altcoin. This thesis is also confirmed by colleagues from Chainalysis, who are sure that ETH has taken on the burden of temporary leadership. Experts report that due to the improvement in the technical characteristics of ETH, including staking, altcoin will become even more popular among large players. This thesis is confirmed by the on-chain metric showing the number of addresses with 1000+ ETH. A significant increase in the number of addresses with this amount of ether coins indicates a high level of confidence in the upcoming update. However, it may also indicate investors' plans to take advantage of the staking feature after the merger. For ETH, this is doubly positive news, as profitable staking will allow the asset to avoid a sharp and massive sell-off. However, we should expect a slight drop in the price of Ether after the update due to market conditions. Ethereum on-chain metrics also show positive dynamics. Trading volumes have taken a sharp upward direction, but still do not reach the levels of mid-July, when the altcoin was at its peak of growth. The number of unique addresses in the cryptocurrency network remains high, but practically unchanged. The indicators of the main on-chain metrics indicate the initial stage of the emergence of an upward trend. It is likely that the numbers will continue to rise ahead of the merger and will peak on September 15–16. It is then that we should expect a peak in the growth of ETH/USD quotes. Given the fundamental reasons for growth and investors' faith in a successful upgrade, there is no doubt about the local bullish trend of ether. On the eve of the merger, the asset will consolidate and gradually approach $1,800–$2,000. Given the successful movement in this area a few weeks ago, one can be sure of ETH/USD consolidation above $2,000. The main targets of Ethereum within the bullish movement due to the Merge update are the $2,000-$2,100 and $2,400-$2,500 areas. Most likely, the price is able to go higher and stab higher levels, but the main potential ends in the $2,400-$2,500 area. Ethereum update will have a positive effect on the cryptocurrency and DeFi/NFT market, but given the macroeconomic background, fundamental shifts should not be expected.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321260
ECB press conference brings more fog than clarity

Events From The European Continent At The Center Of The Podcast

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.09.2022 14:55
Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York.  This week they talk about Queen Elizabeth II’s legacy, the ECB policy decision, the UK energy plan, and Ethereum’s Merge.  They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

What Is Wrapped Ether, Has It Much Utility And Efficiency?

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 10.09.2022 15:05
If you have ever used the Ethereum blockchain, you must have noticed that most of the tokens used in trading and investing are ERC-20-based tokens. This token standard has become the most used option in decentralized applications (dApps), wallets, and crypto protocols due to its many functions. However, Ethereum blockchain’s native token, Ether (ETH), in a tough position as it doesn’t align with ERC-20 token standards. Regardless, users continue to demand to use Ether in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and crypto space. This is where Wrapped Ethereum (WETH) comes in. Wrapped Ether has become one of the favorites of investors and developers on the Ethereum blockchain as it presents a lasting solution to the use of Ether in the DeFi sector. WETH is pegged to Ethereum’s price and is an ERC-20 token. Users can easily convert Wrapped Ether back into Ether. This article is an in-depth introduction to everything Wrapped Ethereum. Keep reading to find out more! Welcome to our brand-new educational series on Ethereum, which is a consumer awareness initiative to help understand everything about the inner workings of the Ethereum blockchain, Ether token, and much more. What are Wrapped Tokens Before we get into the nitty-gritty of Wrapped Ether, let us start with understanding the wrapped token concept. Wrapped tokens are digital assets that allow for the movement of value from one blockchain to another, a form of blockchain interoperability. The most popular wrapped token is the Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), which is pegged 1:1 to the price of Bitcoin (BTC), giving 1 WBTC the same value as 1 BTC. WBTC solves the interoperability limitation of Bitcoin by allowing BTC holders access to other blockchain ecosystems through its ERC-20 or TRC-20 functionality. Wrapped coins have been compared to Stablecoins, and they fit this description in a way. Stablecoins, such as the USDT, track the value of a real-world asset like the dollar, making $1 the same as 1USDT. What makes wrapped tokens fascinating is not the fact that they are pegged 1:1 to the value of another asset. Instead, it is the technology behind these assets, and the way value is backed and preserved. Classification of Wrapped Tokens Broadly speaking, there are two kinds of classes that all wrapped tokens fall into, including cash-settled and redeemable. The former, cash-settled wrapped tokens, cannot be redeemed for the underlying asset after conversion. This makes cash-settled tokens a permanent one-way street kind of token. On the other hand, redeemable wrapped tokens — as the name suggests — can be converted back into the original asset. Meanwhile, blockchains determine the functionality of a token being wrapped, by playing host. For example, wrapped privacy tokens are hosted in the Monero or ZCash blockchains. Usually, the wrapping process is done to tokens with notable utility outside their native blockchains. Here’s a quick look at some of the types of wrapped tokens available on the market: Centralized/Custodial Wrapped Tokens One of the most popular examples of a centralized or custodial wrapped coin is the wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), an ERC-20 token. The value of this token class is sustained by two parties: a custodian and a merchant. Both parties validate transactions on this wrapped coin class using the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism and ensure the underlying coin is stored securely. To convert a coin into its wrapped form in this setting, the coin will be delivered to a merchant. This merchant stores the said coin as collateral with a custodian that supplies the desired wrapped coin. Non-Custodial Wrapped Tokens As the name suggests, this wrapped token class does not involve any third-party custodial services. Minting of non-custodial wrapped tokens is handled on a DAO. Hybrid Wrapped Tokens Hybrid tokens operate with both a centralized custodian and a DAO, infusing the best of both custodial and non-custodial wrapped token types. Hybrid tokens affect the most interoperability and flexibility across chains. However, this wrapped token type is relatively unknown and not acceptable or compatible with many DeFi projects and decentralized applications. Wrapped Ethereum (WETH): The Basics Drawing the meaning from wrapped tokens, Wrapped Ether is the tokenized version of Ether and is pegged 1:1 to the price of ETH. Unlike Ether, WETH cannot be used to settle gas fees. Thanks to its ERC-20 functionalities, WETH is suitable for advanced blockchain transactions in the DeFi space. Despite being the progenitor of the ERC-20 token standard, the ETH token was created too early before the advent of the ERC-20 idea, cutting it out of many functions. Creating and Minting Wrapped ETH Creating (minting) Wrapped Ether rests in the hands of the users of Ethereum and is a seamless and quick process. ETH holders simply have to send their tokens to a specific smart contract, which automatically generates WETH and credits it to the user’s wallet. The smart contract serves as a custodian and locks up the ETH, thereby ensuring every single WETH in existence is backed by ETH reserves. To maintain the WETH peg to the value of ETH, all WETH is burned (destroyed) whenever it is exchanged for ETH. An easier method of acquiring Wrapped Ether is to swap another token, Ethereum, or any other tokens in your possession, using coin exchangers. Some popular options for swapping your tokens for WETH include Uniswap or Sushiswap. How are Wrapped ETH (WETH) and Ethereum (ETH) Different? Some traders grapple with understanding the difference between ETH and WETH. Let’s start by understanding what Ethereum is. Today, many crypto projects prefer to create unique native tokens for facilitating transactions on the blockchain. In this sense, Ethereum created Ether (ETH) as the native cryptocurrency for its network. That said, customers interested in facilitating transactions directly on the Ethereum blockchain must use ETH to complete the process. Ether has grown into a massive asset and is used in several settings, such as for payments of goods and services on the Ethereum network, settling gas fees, and speculation. Now that we know what Ethereum is, Wrapped Ethereum is the wrapped version of Ethereum. Think of a candy wrapped in a plastic wrapper; the candy is ETH while the wrapper is WETH. As mentioned at the outset, Ethereum is not an ERC-20 token, limiting its use in the DeFi and crypto world. This is the primary solution WETH offers, as it is an ERC-20-standard token, allowing ETH holders access to previously restricted niches of the market. Wrapping ETH WETH tokens are created by depositing ETH into smart contracts. These smart contracts act as a custodian and lock the deposited ETH in a secure address, which can be exchanged back into WETH on request, given the wrapped tokens are backed 1:1 by the ETH deposited. That said, converting WETH back to ETH essentially destroys or burns the tokens. Wrapping and unwrapping Ethereum comes at a small cost which varies across conversion platforms. Meanwhile, users can choose to swap ETH for WETH through a decentralized exchange (DEX). Users can also swap their tokens for the value equivalent in WETH using Uniswap, OpenSea, and MetaMask. Described below is a step-by-step guide to wrapping ETH through MetaMask: If you don’t already have a MetaMask account, create one and sign into your wallet. Confirm that you have funds available in the wallet. If you don’t, you can buy ETH using your credit or debit card, or you could send ETH from an external wallet. Log on to a decentralized exchange, such as Unswap, and link your funded MetaMask wallet with it. Then, you need to choose the Ethereum mainnet as the preferred platform before clicking swap. Once this is done, a prompt bearing the options of tokens is displayed. Select WETH from the drop-down option in the ‘Swap to’ box. Select the amount of ETH on your MetaMask wallet you want to wrap and select ‘Review Swap.’ After this, a prompt bearing the details of the final transaction is displayed. Confirm that the displayed amount is what was originally chosen and other conversion details. The transaction will not go through if you do not have enough funds. A prompt to add more funds will be displayed. Once confirmation is settled, complete the transaction by clicking the ‘Swap’ icon. The newly-minted WETH will be credited to your MetaMask wallet. Unwrapping ETH Say you want to convert your WETH back to ETH after the transaction you needed the ERC-20 token for is done, all you need to do is unwrap your WETH. Unwrapping a coin is the process of burning the wrapped coin and receiving the original version in your wallet. As for wrapping Ethereum, there are several ways to unwrap WETH, including: The manual process through interaction with a smart contract. Exchanging WETH for ETH on a DEX. Unwrap WETH on MetaMask on OpenSea. In this article, we’ll focus on the third option for unwrapping Ether. The process is as follows: Open the OpenSea website and log into your account. If you don’t have an account, create one and continue with the described process. Locate and click on the wallet icon. Though it varies for some devices, it should be at the top right corner of your screen. A prompt will appear requesting you log in using your wallet. Select MetaMask and proceed. You should already have a MetaMask wallet from wrapping Ethereum. If you don’t, create one and proceed. Sign into your wallet using your password. After that, you should see your fund details displayed on the screen. If you have insufficient funds, deposit more WETH and proceed. Click on the ‘option’ icon (usually represented by three bold dots) that appears under your WETH details. Select ‘Unwrap.’ Another prompt with the transaction details would be displayed on your screen at this point. Carefully examine the details of the transaction and ensure everything is correct. Click on ‘Unwrap.’ Once this is done, click on ‘Confirm’ to transfer the original token (ETH) to your wallet. You should be credited shortly after this. This is the best and fast and best way to unwrap and wrap ETH. Pros and Cons of Wrapped ETH (WETH) DeFi Activity Enhancement The Ethereum network is the broadest DeFi ecosystem on the block today, with the most compatibility. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s functionality is not limited to registering and validating transactions on the blockchain. WETH further improves Ethereum’s unparalleled functionality and reach by increasing its usability, leading to more advancements and innovations in the decentralized finance ecosystem. Interoperability Wrapped Ether delivers interoperability with standardized coins, allowing for the seamless flow of resources between blockchains innovatively. This inevitably improves blockchain processes and reduces the margin for errors substantially, creating room for more innovation and improvements in Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem. Elimination of Third Parties Another critical benefit WETH renders is that it allows for decentralized transactions without the need for any third-party facilitator or mediator. Transaction Efficiency It needs no mention that wrapped coins like WETH allow transactions to be facilitated more efficiently, thanks to the immense compatibility and interoperability they have. Risks Associated with Wrapped ETH Custodial Risks As mentioned earlier, smart contracts — that serve as custodians — are needed for the process of wrapping or unwrapping Ether. That said, issues arising from the underlying WETH smart contract in a transaction could put users’ funds at risk. A smart contract is only as good as its host blockchain, making it advisable to always use more reliable exchanger platforms. Centralization Risks The primary function of the DeFi space is in its name: decentralization. The reliance on platforms to hold, mint, and burn tokens brings about some form of centralization, which defeats the whole purpose of decentralization. For example, say $2 billion worth of WETH is domiciled in a centralized entity or smart contract provider. This gives the custodian in question some degree of control over these funds. Associated Transaction Fees The wrapping and unwrapping process of Ethereum is not free; there are transaction fees associated with it. It requires gas fees, which could be exorbitant sometimes. Transaction fees and slippages from frequent wrapping and unwrapping processes can snowball into large sums and eat at funds. Will WETH Always Remain Pegged To Ether? Short answer: yes. It has to. As mentioned earlier, wrapped Ether works similarly to a Stablecoin, as it has to remain as close as possible to the price of the original asset, or else it all falls apart. This is the reason for the minting and burning of WETH on every transaction; to make sure demand and supply are tamed. In a scenario where WETH loses its peg, even if only slightly, and becomes cheaper than ETH, investors will immediately capitalize on the arbitrage opportunity and purchase more WETH and sell for ETH to make a quick profit. This would trigger a massive demand for WETH, which would, in turn, boost the price of the instrument, returning it to the peg. The same is true when the price of WETH becomes higher than Ether, with investors purchasing Ether and converting it to WETH coins for profits, lowering the price of WETH. This primary demand and supply principle is the sustaining factor in ensuring a relatively stable peg between these assets. Final Thoughts WETH brings so much utility and efficiency to the Ethereum network users. Because of its ERC-20 quality, WETH can essentially be used across most blockchains, a feature lacking in Ethereum. As discussed in the article, switching between ETH and WETH is a straightforward process that requires no technical knowledge or skills. Also, both wrapping and unwrapping processes adhere to the 1:1 rule, meaning you will always get the number of tokens desired outside transaction costs. With Ethereum — the largest DeFi and smart contract ecosystem — constantly reinventing itself, more use cases for WETH in staking, NFT auction bidding, providing liquidity, yield farming, and crypto lending will continue to emerge.
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Ethereum Is Struggling With Its Impending Merger, The ETH/USD Pair Has Been Seen Trading Above The 100% Fibonacci Projection

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 09:48
Crypto Industry News: Ethereum is struggling with its impending merger. This time the problem is with miners. Among them is a group that believes that switching to Proof-of-Stake may prove to be a threat to them. Chandler Guo, who spearheads efforts to maintain the current Proof-of-Work mechanism, believes that after the transformation, miners will be "broke" because the "multi-billion dollar" industry will disappear overnight. Despite this, the Ethereum Foundation remains optimistic about the upcoming changes. According to her, such a move will reduce blockchain energy consumption by 99.95%. This would be a step that could make this technology more environmentally conscious for companies. But Guo said the miners, who are "the community's largest stakeholder," are being pushed out of the business. He further stated that he knows that critics like him outnumbered major crypto companies including OpenSea, Tether, and Circle that back The Merge. Justin Sun, founder of the Tron ecosystem, also believes that Ethereum should remain in the PoW model. In a media podcast, he stated that the ETH was heading into uncharted territory. It could therefore turn out to be a catastrophic event given what happened to the "foundation of the crypto industry." However, Sun believes the transition to merge will work fine: "We can be 99% sure it will be a good start". Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen trading at the level of $1,785, which is above the 100% Fibonacci projection located at $1,753. The rally had ended with a Pin Bar candlestick pattern on the H4 time frame chart, so a pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $1,722 was done. The momentum is coming off the extremely overbought conditions, but is still strong and positive, so the outlook remains bullish for ETH on the short-term time frames. The next target for bulls is located at the level of $1,819 and $1,825. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,875 WR2 - $1,807 WR1 - $1,765 Weekly Pivot - $1,738 WS1 - $1,697 WS2 - $1,670 WS3 - $1,601 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9 Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292309
The Commodities Feed: China's 2023 growth target underwhelms markets

Power Producers Need To Buy Carbon Permits, In China Loans To Households Remained Sluggish

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.09.2022 10:01
Summary:  Ukrainian success in taking back significant territory from Russia over the weekend has driven a cautious further recovery in the euro and sterling at the open of trade this week. Elsewhere, yields have jumped higher, helping drive new yen weakness and taming risk sentiment as the US 10-year treasury benchmark trades near the cycle highs since June. Focus this week is on tomorrow's US August CPI release, the most important data point ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities Friday on a strong note up 1.5% and S&P 500 futures have extended their gains overnight touching the 4,100 level because before receding to around the 4,085 level in early European trading hours. The US 10-year yield continues to move higher trading at 3.34% and if it sets a new high for the recent cycle it will probably cause headwinds for US equities so watch the US bond market. Next big macro event is tomorrow’s US August CPI report which is expected to print –0.1% m/m suggesting inflation is beginning to cool. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are closed today for the mid-autumn festival holiday. Last Friday, Hang Seng Index soared 2.7%, snapping a six-day losing streak following China’s August inflation data surprising to the downside and raising hope for more monetary easing to come from the Chinese policymakers. Chinese property names rallied on market chatters about unconfirmed stimulus measures from policymakers to boost the ailing property sector. Ahead of the mid-autumn festival, catering stocks gained. CSI 300 climbed 1.4%, led by property, dental services, infrastructure, and digital currency.  Northbound inflows into A-shares reached USD2.1billion equivalent last Friday, the largest inflow in a single day since the beginning of the year. Ukrainian success on the battlefield drives EUR and GBP strength The surprise offensive and the re-capture of a key transport hub in the northeastern sector of the front after recent focus on operations in the south caught the market by surprise and has seen the euro and sterling rebounding versus the US dollar in early trading this week, with EURUSD trading to new local highs well clear of 1.0100 briefly overnight before edging back lower. Likewise, GBPUSD pulled north of 1.1650 before treading water back toward 1.1600. It will take some time and further developments to assess whether Ukraine can capitalize on its gains and this in turn triggers a new stance from Russia on its energy policy. JPY crosses back higher as yields rise The USDJPY correction on Friday inspired by somewhat stern language from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda has mostly faded, as USDJPY bobs back above 143.00 overnight on US treasury yields challenging cycle highs. EURJPY pulled back close to the cycle high well above 144.00 overnight on hopes that the war in Ukraine is turning in the Ukrainians favour. New highs in USDJPY may bring more two-way volatility again if Japanese officialdom backs up its concern on the situation with market intervention (buying JPY). Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) Crude oil starts the week in defensive mode with the focus staying with demand concerns amid continued lockdowns in China hurting demand from the world's top importer and a rapid succession of interest rates from major central banks negatively impacting the global economic outlook. Into the mix a US-backed plan to cap prices on Russian oil sales from December 5, a stranded Iran nuclear deal, strong demand for fuel products such as diesel at the expense of punitively high gas prices and a softer dollar. In addition, the collapse of Russian defenses in Ukraine and the response from Moscow will be watched closely. Monthly oil market reports from OPEC tomorrow and IEA on Wednesday should provide some further guidance on the supply/demand outlook. Brent’s current range: $92.75 and $87.25 US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) The 10-year US Treasury benchmark edged higher toward the local range high north of 3.3% overnight, with only the June peak at 3.50% remaining as the focus to the upside (this was the highest yield for the cycle since early 2011 and the run higher in yields in June coincided with the major low of the equity bear market this year. Tomorrow’s US August CPI number is the next key test for sentiment and yield direction, while the US Treasury will also auction both 3-year and 10-year treasury notes today and will auction 30-year t-bonds tomorrow. What is going on? France’s manufacturing production contracted in July According to the latest estimate released by the French Institute of National Statistics (INSEE), the manufacturing production decreased by a stunning 1.6 % month-over-month in July. It remains in expansion on a yearly basis (+0.2 %). Without much surprise, the drop is mostly explained by higher prices, especially higher energy prices. The INSEE does not forecast a recession in France this year. Nonetheless, growth is likely to decelerate very sharply in the coming quarters. The institute forecasts that growth will be around 0.2 % in Q3 and will be stagnant in Q4 2022. India’s rice export ban risk aggravating global food crisis After a ban on wheat exports earlier this year, India has now announced restrictions on rice exports, aggravating concerns of a global food crisis. Bloomberg reported India imposed a 20% duty on white and brown rice exports and banned shipments of broke rice. The new curbs apply to about 60% of India's rice exports and go into effect Friday. India’s rice output has been depressed due to the severe heatwaves, but also possibly to cap domestic price pressures. If these measures are duplicated by other key rice exporting countries like Thailand and Vietnam, there could potentially be a severe grain shortage globally, especially weighing on poor rice importing nations. We continue to see a threat of climate change to global agricultural output, which along with a prolonged energy crisis, suggested price pressure will stay in the medium-to-long term despite some cooling off from the recent highs. European carbon price drops as EU considers sale of permits from reserves The December ECX emissions contract (EMISSIONSDEC22) has fallen by around one-third since hitting a record high last month above €99 per tons. Given the current energy crisis, EU energy ministers are moving towards a deal to sell surplus permits from its Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in order to support a reduction in the cost of producing power and heating within the region. Power producers need to buy carbon permits to offset the polluting impact of using coal and gas over renewables. Occidental Petroleum shares rise on Berkshire accumulation In a filing on Friday, Berkshire Hathaway announced that it has lifted its stake to 26.8% in Occidental Petroleum. The move comes after the investment firm got regulatory approval for increasing the stake to over 50%. Berkshire’s move in Occidental Petroleum shares is seen as a move of confidence in the oil and gas industry as a much-needed industry for bridging the gap during the green transformation. Semiconductors are in focus as the US is expected to announce more curbs on exports The US Commerce Department is expected to publish new regulations curbing exports of semiconductors to China with companies such as KLA, Lam Research, and Applied Materials likely being impacted by the upcoming regulation. The move by the US further confirms the deglobalisation under the rule of self-reliance applied by increasingly more countries. China’s medium to long-term corporate loans picked up in growth  Over the past months, Chinese policymakers instructed policy banks and gave window guidance to commercial banks to extend credits to support infrastructure construction and key industries of the economy. Some results showed up in the August loan data which recorded a growth of 16% m/m annualized in the outstanding medium to long-term loans to the corporate sector. The amount of new medium to long-term loans to corporate was RMB 735bn in August versus RMB 346bn in July and RMB 522bn in August 2021. Loans to households remained sluggish. PBoC issues a list of 19 systemically important banks The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a list of 19 systematically important banks.  These 19 banks will face between 0.25% and 1% higher minimum capital requirements and additional leverage requirements. They are also asked to prepare contingency plans for major risk events. These 19 banks are Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Hua Xia Bank, Ningbo Bank, China Guangfa Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Bank of Shanghai, Bank of Beijing; China CITIC Bank, China Postal Savings Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank. The CPC is set to amend the party constitution at its upcoming national congress The Political Bureau of CPC Central Committee said in a readout last Friday that the Communist Party of China (CPC) is set to “work out an amendment to the Party Constitution that facilitates the innovative development of Party theories and practices and meets the need of advancing the great new project of Party building in the new era” at the CCP’s national congress to convene starting on October 16.  It further elaborates that “the latest adaption of Marxism to China's context and new circumstances will be fully epitomized and so will the new ideas, new thinking and new strategies of governance developed by the CPC Central Committee since the Party's 19th National Congress in 2017. What are we watching next? The Bank of England (BoE) will need to go big on 22 September The meeting initially scheduled for this week is postponed following the Queen Elizabeth II. Last week, both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank hiked their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points. All eyes are turning to the BoE now. Pressure is mounting for the BoE to go big this week – meaning a 75-basis points hike. In August, the central bank hiked rates by 50 basis points to 1.75 %. Despite prime minister Liz Truss’s new anti-inflation plan (which will likely lower the peak in inflation), we think the BoE will need to show its commitment to fight inflation. The Bank forecasts that UK CPI will increase to 13.3 % year-over-year in Q4 2022. But the peak in inflation is only expected in 2023. This means that the cost of living will continue increasing in the short term, anyhow. Fed speakers stay hawkish before the blackout period begins and ahead of US CPI release tomorrow Fed rate hike expectations have picked up strongly since Jackson Hole, and we have heard an extremely unanimous voice from the Fed speakers since then. Some of them have clearly made the case for a 75bps rate hike in September, with Bullard on Friday even saying that Tuesday’s CPI report is unlikely to alter the incoming 75bps rate hike in September. Governor Waller leaned hawkish as well, but did not specify the size for September’s decision, but a “significant” hike still points to that. Esther George stayed away from guiding for individual meetings but made the case for sustained rate hikes. Ethereum merge The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is scheduled to undergo a major upgrade this week (estimated on Thursday) which, if successful, will fundamentally change the way the cryptocurrency is working. It will go from the computationally intensive proof-of-work consensus to the more energy-friendly proof-of-stake, as well as introducing a mechanism to limit the inflation in Ethereum. The crypto community is looking very much forward to this upgrade, although some are concerned about the security in the new framework. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings release is Oracle which a better-than-expected earnings result on 13 June surprising the market on EPS by 12% as the legacy database and software maker is gaining momentum in its cloud offering. Analysts expect FY23 Q3 (ending 31 August) revenue growth to accelerate to 18% y/y, which includes its recent acquisition of Cerner in the health care sector, which is impressive for the previously low growth company despite some of the growth being driven by acquisitions. If the outlook remains strong a longer-term repricing of the company’s valuation could be in the making. Today: Oracle Tuesday: DiDi Global Wednesday: Inditex Thursday: Polestar Automotive, Adobe Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – ECB's Guindos to speak 0800 – Switzerland Weekly SNB Sight Deposits 1200 – ECB’s Schnabel to speak 1530 – US 3-year Treasury auction 1700 – US 10-year Treasury auction 2100 – New Zealand Aug. REINZ House Sales 0030 – Australia Sep. Westpac Consumer Confidence 0130 – Australia Aug. NAB Business Conditions/Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean engraver Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-12-2022-12092022
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Ethereum Is Down, The CBDC Infrastructure In Norway Is Based On Ethereum Technology

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 09:02
Crypto Industry News: Norway's Central Bank has reached a milestone in its digital currency effort by releasing open source code for the Central Bank's Digital Currency Sandbox (CBDC). The sandbox available on GitHub is designed to offer an interface for interacting with the test network, enabling functions such as knocking out, burning and transferring ERC-20 tokens, according to the official partner of Norges Bank at CBDC, Nahma. Nahmii emphasized that the current version of the code does not support the main Ethereum MetaMask wallet and is only available privately to users with appropriate credentials. In addition to implementing appropriate smart contracts and access controls, Norges Bank's sandbox includes custom frontend and network monitoring tools such as BlockScout and Grafana. Nahmii noticed that the interface also shows a filterable summary of transactions on the web. Norges Bank announced on Twitter that the prototype CBDC infrastructure in Norway is based on Ethereum technology. The central bank referred to Ethereum in a blog post on CBDC back in May. Norges Bank said the Ethereum cryptocurrency system is expected to provide a "core infrastructure" for issuing, distributing and destroying central bank digital money, also known as DSPs. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen pulling back from the 100% Fibonacci projection located at $1,753. The rally had ended with a Pin Bar candlestick pattern on the H4 time frame chart, so a pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $1,685 was done. The momentum is coming off the extremely overbought conditions to the level of fifty, so the outlook remains bullish for ETH on the short-term time frames. The next target for bulls is located at the level of $1,819 and $1,825. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,875 WR2 - $1,807 WR1 - $1,765 Weekly Pivot - $1,738 WS1 - $1,697 WS2 - $1,670 WS3 - $1,601 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9 Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292498
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

What Could Ethereum Be, Bullish Or Bearish?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 13:50
Technical outlook: Ethereum pushed through the $1,790 highs over the weekend, rallying over 350 points from its recent swing low at around $1,423. The crypto might have completed a corrective rally and hit resistance just below $1,800. Also, note that the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the bearish drop is seen around $1,805, hence the token will face strong resistance if prices manage to reach there. Ethereum had earlier dropped from the $2,031 highs through the $1,423 lows, carving a meaningful downswing as seen on the 4H chart here. A pullback rally was expected thereafter, which could potentially reach up to $1,750 and the $1,800-10 area before prices turned lower again. The bulls have managed to produce a corrective wave and push prices up to about $1,800. The Ethereum bears might be keen to come back in control from here or after hitting $1,800-10 in the near term. Also, note that prices have tested the Elliott Channel resistance line from just below $1,800 and turned lower. The crypto is trading close to the resistance zone. A drag lower from here remains a high probability. Trading plan: Potential drop from the $1,750-1,800 zone against $2,050 Good luck! Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292573
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PoS Security Will Continue To Increase, The Ethereum In Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 10:10
Crypto Industry News: In an online interview, a security expert requesting anonymity explained that, unlike Proof-of-Work (PoW) based systems, systems based on Proof-of-Stake (PoS) inform the node validators in advance which blocks they will check, thus enabling them to plan attacks. The cybersecurity expert quoted by the portal is a blockchain developer working on a second layer PoS blockchain. The researcher explained that an exploit could theoretically be more easily exploited in the post-merge chain on the Ethereum network (any unethical or illegal attack that exploits vulnerabilities in an application, network or hardware. Typically an attack is carried out using software or code trying to take control of the system or steal data stored in the network): "If you control two consecutive blocks, you can run an exploit on block N and end it on block N + 1. (...). From an economic security point of view [this vulnerability] makes these attacks relatively easier to carry out." - he said. The expert said that while miners could also check two more blocks on PoW networks, it comes down to "pure luck" and does not give them time to plan an attack. However, he reassured ETH investors by saying: "PoS [still] has sufficient practical security [and] it doesn't really matter that in theory it is not as secure as PoW. It's still a very secure system," he added. In addition, "PoS security will [continue] to increase", as Ethereum developers are working on solutions that will mitigate the above-mentioned threat. The Merge on the Ethereum network is set to take place on September 15 at 2:30 UTC time (according to Blocknative's Ethereum Merge Countdown). The switch to PoS is expected to make the Ethereum network much less energy-intensive. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had reversed from the level of $1,785 aggressively and drop towards the level of $1,552. In this situation, the levels of $1,689 and $1,722 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,513 and $1,473. Please notice, the momentum is very weak and negative and the market conditions are now extremely oversold, so an intraday bounce is expected. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,875 WR2 - $1,807 WR1 - $1,765 Weekly Pivot - $1,738 WS1 - $1,697 WS2 - $1,670 WS3 - $1,601 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9 Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292687
The Sandbox Is Available On GitHub, The Norway's CBDC Based On Ethereum Technology

The Sandbox Is Available On GitHub, The Norway's CBDC Based On Ethereum Technology

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 11:52
Norway's central bank has released the source code for its central bank digital currency (CBDC) sandbox based on Ethereum technology. The sandbox is available on GitHub and allows testing basic token management use cases, including minting, burning, and transferring ERC-20 tokens, the Norges Bank's official CBDC partner Nahmii said in a blog post. In addition to using the appropriate smart contracts and access control, the Norges Bank sandbox also includes custom frontend and network monitoring tools, like BlockScout and Grafana. According to Nahmii, the front end also shows a filterable summary of transactions on the network. Nahmii stressed that the current version of the code is only privately accessible by people with the necessary credentials. The official announcement about plans to conduct CBDC testing came from Norges Bank in April 2021, stating that it expected to find a preferred solution by trailing different designs for two years. In the working paper released on November 2021, the central bank mentioned possible CBDC designs, including those based on blockchains like Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Bitcoin SV.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321664
Eurozone Bank Lending Under Strain as Higher Rates Bite

Bank Of England Is Expected To Choose Between 50 and 75bp, Ethereum Arouses More And More Discussions As Merge Is Around The Bend

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 14.09.2022 16:28
Stock markets have stabilized a little after Tuesday’s rout which saw risk assets pummelled across the board. There appears to have been a tendency in recent months to front-run certain releases in the hope that it’s going to prove to be the “pivot” moment when everything starts to look up, central banks can ease off the brake and risk assets will have bottomed. That certainly looks to have been the case over the last week as investors were lured into a false sense of security following the July CPI release only to be brought back down to earth with a bang with the August report. Unfortunately, 2022 has delivered some harsh truths when it comes to inflation and yesterday was the latest in that series. The run-up to the peak was far more aggressive and severe than anyone anticipated and, it would appear, the move back towards 2% is not going to be easy either. Markets are now fully pricing in at least a 75 basis point rate hike next week and almost a 40% chance of it being 100, a far cry from the 50 investors were hoping to see following that CPI data. Not only that, the policy rate is expected to peak at 4.25-4.5% early next year and if the data doesn’t improve soon, that will increase further. Despite the economy’s resilience to this point, a recession may still be on the cards as the tightening cycle potentially pushes it over the edge. BoE seen hiking by 75bps even as inflation eases UK inflation is back into single digits, with the headline rate falling back to 9.9% last month. That’s not exactly cause for celebration, nor is it likely the peak, but you have to take your wins where you can these days. And as we’ve already learned once this week, nasty inflation surprises are not yet a thing of the past, with the UK looking more susceptible to them than most. The data also won’t in all likelihood change the outcome of the BoE meeting next week, with 75 basis points now heavily backed but 50 also possible. The UK still has a major inflation problem and the central bank has a lot of catching up to do after dragging its feet for much of the year so far. A lot of talk and a little bit of action The FX intervention warnings are coming thick and fast since the release of the US CPI data on Tuesday, which saw the dollar surge and come within a whisker of 145 to the yen. The move reportedly prompted the BoJ to conduct a rate check overnight, widely seen as a precursor to intervening in the markets for the first time since 1998. Since then, the USDJPY pair has fallen well back towards 143 and we’ve been flooded with warnings of urgency and willingness to act. The line in the sand has been drawn and speculators may now feel that 145 is viewed in Japan as a step too far. With the Fed and BoJ meeting in the middle of next week – among many others – it promises to be a fascinating seven days. PBOC desperately trying to support the yuan It’s not just Japan that’s fretting about the weakness of its currency, the PBOC set the yuan fix at its strongest bias on record versus expectations. The move is the latest in a series of attempts to stabilise the currency against fierce headwinds while at the same time attempting to ease financial conditions at home. The road ahead is full of potholes for the world’s second-largest economy and confidence is continuing to deteriorate. Will the Ethereum Merge support crypto prices? Bitcoin was probably at the top of the list of instruments that got carried away at the prospect of fewer rate hikes ahead of the CPI data and it, therefore, got hit the hardest when the number dropped. Of course, there are other things happening in the crypto space right now with a huge focus on the imminent Ethereum Merge, with some suggesting that may have contributed to the rebound we’ve seen. Of course, that could equally compound the sell-off if it becomes a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” event. Time will tell. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. A harsh lesson - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

The ETH/USD Pair Tried To Rebound After The Decline And Wallet Selector In Opera Crypto

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 09:54
Crypto Industry News: The Opera Crypto browser, a special version of the popular Opera, has added support for crypto wallets such as MetaMask. All thanks to the Wallet Selector function. The Norwegian software company behind Opera intends to increase the usability of the Opera Crypto version for the Web3 application. Exchanges: Gate.io In January this year. The beta version of Opera Crypto appeared, and the company explained that it wanted to meet the growing interest of users who expect browsers to support the web3. Before Wallet Selector was introduced, the browser only supported the wallet built directly into the application. Now that is changing and it will be possible to pin third-party digital wallets with the latest feature. Wallet Selector in Opera Crypto will allow you to install extensions to your preferred crypto wallets - primarily to the most popular MetaMask, which is necessary if you use, for example, decentralized exchanges. The latest feature only extends the capabilities of the Opera Crypto browser. Currently, its users can count on e.g. Crypto Corner, a news hub with news from the world of cryptocurrencies, support for numerous dApp applications (decentralized) and convenient switching between wallets. The company emphasizes that Opera Crypto allows you to log into the dApp application without installing any extensions, and its own Opera Wallet wallet supports ETH, ERC-20 and ERC-721 tokens, as well as other blockchains. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen trying to bounce after the drop to the level of $1,552. The market is still trading inside the ascending channel, so in this situation, the levels of $1,649, $1,689 and $1,722 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,513 and $1,473. Please notice, the momentum is very weak and negative and the market conditions are now extremely oversold, so an intraday bounce is expected. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,875 WR2 - $1,807 WR1 - $1,765 Weekly Pivot - $1,738 WS1 - $1,697 WS2 - $1,670 WS3 - $1,601 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9 Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292870
Stocks to keep an eye on in the second half of 2023

Energy Prices Remain Very Volatile, Activities In The Markets

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 15.09.2022 10:31
US equities eked out small gains yesterday as dip buyers timidly came in, but risks remain tilted to the downside with the disappointing inflation figures, and the risk of the largest rail strike in the US since 1992. Crude Oil Prices Released yesterday, the US producer price data didn’t enchant investors. The headline figure fell for the second consecutive month but the core PPI strengthened, hinting that most of the easing in producer inflation was due to cheaper energy prices – which however remain very volatile, and which, more importantly carries a decent upside risk. The barrel of American crude flirted with the $90 mark yesterday, without however being able to clear resistance at this level. Energy companies gained despite news that Europeans are looking to raise $140 billion euros from energy companies to help households and businesses survive through winter. The situation on the stock market The S&P500 recover a part of losses yesterday, as Nasdaq gained 0.84%. But the risks remain clearly tilted to the downside. The US dollar remains relatively strong near the 20-year highs, the EURUSD consolidates below parity as gold slipped back below $1700 per ounce. The USDJPY retreated on expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could intervene to stop the yen’s depreciation. Ethereum trades around $1600 as Merger Upgrade is now imminent! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro0:24 Dip buyers return to a risky market2:31 US crude flirts with $90pb3:41 US rail strike risk weighs on sentiment4:55 Energy stocks rally despite EU measures to cope with crisis7:07 Gold under pressure7:50 BoJ could intervene to strengthen the yen8:52 Ethereum Merges today! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #PPI #inflation #rail #strike #USD #EUR #JPY #BoJ #rate #check #Gold #XAU #crude #oil #BP #XOM #Chevron #Coterra #windfall #taxes #energy #crisis #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Merge #update #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Crypto: What Is EDX Markets? Mike McGlone Shares His Thoughts On Crypto Market And Ethereum's Transformation

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.09.2022 09:22
Bitcoin won't give up $20K Bitcoin has lost 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $20.1K. The plunge below a meaningful round level late Wednesday afternoon did not last long. Ethereum pulled down 0.3% to $1610 while the crypto community awaits the market's reaction to The Merge (move to PoS algorithm). We can describe sentiment across the crypto market as a cautious wait-and-see. Short-term Bitcoin momentum indicates that sellers wanted to swing the market at the end of the day yesterday and snap stop orders, taking advantage of a period of reduced liquidity on Wednesday. As we see, it failed, and BTCUSD returned precisely to where it started its local decline. However, the balance of power is now on the bears' side, as the global risk demand is suppressed, and critical technical levels (50- and 200-day MA, 200-week MA) are above the price. Read next: GDP Growth In New Zealand. Australia Unemployment Rate And Waiting For Initial Jobless Claims Report| FXMAG.COM News background Major US companies Charles Schwab, Citadel and Fidelity have announced the launch of digital asset exchange EDX Markets (EDXM), which will be available to retail and institutional investors. Another recalculation resulted in a 3.45% increase in bitcoin mining complexity to 32.05 trillion hashes, the highest in the network's history. Network service provider Cloudflare announced that its gateways support the upcoming transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm on September 15. Bloomberg Intelligence expert Mike McGlone believes the crypto market will begin a bullish trend after The Merge update. In his opinion, ETH's move to PoS will have a revolutionary impact on cryptocurrencies and the entire financial system. Changpeng Zhao, chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, said the EU's crypto-asset regulation principles could become the global standard for the entire industry.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Ethereum’s Merge Is The Most Influential Events, The Change The Way In Verifies The Transactions

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 15.09.2022 10:20
Summary:  This morning the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum successfully underwent its merge from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. From consuming around 0.2% of the world’s electricity, Ethereum now consumes a fraction of that. This morning at around 06:44 AM UTC, the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum successfully underwent its merge. The shift from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake has fundamentally changed the way Ethereum validates transactions on its blockchain. Instead of massive computational power known as mining, the holders of Ether can verify Ethereum-based transactions by becoming a staker. Proof-of-stake consumes around 99.95% less energy compared to proof-of-work, which consumed the same amount of electricity as the whole country of Chile or equal to 0.2% of the total electricity consumption globally. As stakers are rewarded in newly issued crypto, the lower amount of required energy allows a lower issuance of new Ether, thereby minimizing the dilution of existing Ether holders. You can read more about the Ethereum merge from one of our earlier analysis to be found here. A new chapter not only for Ethereum but crypto in general In our view, Ethereum’s merge is one of the most influential events since the genesis block of Bitcoin in January 2009. It is a first for a cryptocurrency of that size to change its consensus framework. This was done without disrupting the network, which secures over $410bn of value across its own native crypto, stablecoins, tokens, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). For the past years, the discussion of whether it is appropriate for proof-of-work to consume so much electricity has constantly intensified. Today, Ethereum steers away from this discussion once and for all, while it leaves Bitcoin in the dust. The latter consumes around 0.42% of the total electricity consumption globally equal to the country of Kazakhstan, so while this discussion is no longer valid for Ethereum, it is as valid for Bitcoin as it has ever been. Yet, although Ethereum’s successful merge stresses that it is possible to ditch proof-of-work for good, there is no plan for Bitcoin to adopt a proof-of-stake framework. Can Ethereum prove unbroken stability? Although Ethereum’s developers have worked for years to prepare its transition towards proof-of-stake, the latter has not yet proved long-term consistency in terms of decentralization and resistance under authentic conditions. The only way to adequately do this is without having severe issues in production under various distinct market conditions. This can only be sufficiently proven as time passes and that clock starts counting today. This is not a sprint but a marathon. Only time will tell whether Ethereum’s proof-of-stake framework can demonstrate stability in line with its former but mature proof-of-work framework.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/cryptocurrencies/ethereum-merge-post-15092022
The Bitcoin Fall Will Likely Continue In The Future

The Main Topic Of The Cryptocurrencies Market: Bitcoin vs Ether And The Problem With The Ethereum Merge

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 12:13
ccording to market expectations, the transition of Ethereum from Proof-of-work to Proof-of-stake should take place today. Some say that this may lead to the fact that the second cryptocurrency will begin to take market share from BTC. Famous Bitcoin supporters have criticized the update and urge those who prefer the main cryptocurrency to prepare for war. Michael Saylor Criticizes "Misinformation" About BTC Energy Uses MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor argues that bitcoin mining can become a clean, profitable, and modern industry that generates hard currency for remote places in the developing world. Ahead of Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake, Saylor spoke out against what he calls "misinformation and propaganda" about the environmental impact surrounding proof-of-work (PoW) BTC mining. On September 14, he shared a lengthy post on his Twitter account detailing his seven "high-level thoughts" on BTC mining and its impact on the environment. One of his key arguments was against PoW BTC mining being energy efficient. Instead, Saylor claims it is "the cleanest industrial use of electricity and is improving its energy efficiency at the fastest rate in any major industry." He backed up his argument with numbers taken from the Global Bitcoin Data Mining Review for the second quarter. The one was published in July by the Bitcoin Mining Council, a group of 45 companies that claim to represent 50.5% of the global network. Saylor emphasized: "Our metrics show ~59.5% of energy for bitcoin mining comes from sustainable sources and energy efficiency improved 46% YoY." An attempt to distract the authorities from the "inconvenient truth" Saylor's argument comes from the fact that the BTC mining industry has come under a lot of pressure due to its perceived environmental impact. This has even led some US states to take steps to ban cryptocurrency mining. Saylor claims that the continuous improvement of the network and the "relentless improvement in the semiconductors" make mining much more energy efficient than big tech companies like Google, Netflix or Facebook. "Approximately $4-5 billion in electricity is used to power & secure a network that is worth $420 billion as of today," Saylor said. "This makes Bitcoin far less energy intensive than Google, Netflix, or Facebook, and 1-2 orders of magnitude less energy intensive than traditional 20th century industries like airlines, logistics, retail, hospitality, and agriculture." Saylor also stated that 99.92% of the world's carbon emissions come from industrial uses of energy other than bitcoin mining. Looking at the numbers, Saylor doesn't think environmentalists' arguments condemning PoW mining are fair. Rather, in his opinion, this is an attempt to "focus negative attention on Proof-of-Work mining" and distract authorities from the "inconvenient truth that Proof-of-Stake crypto assets are generally unregistered securities trading on unregulated exchanges." Saylor concludes by saying that all the negativity about PoW mining is detracting from the potential benefits for the world. "Bitcoin mining can bring a clean, profitable and modern industry that generates hard currency to remote locations in the developing world, connected only via satellite link." Jack Dorsey Questions Ethereum Merge Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey also chose his side in the Bitcoin vs. Ethereum debate. Dorsey, a well-known supporter of the main cryptocurrency, questions the Ethereum merge. On Twitter, he posted a popular post by another popular Bitcoin maximalist, Scott Sullivan. In the very first line, Sullivan calls Ethereum a shitcoin and asks Bitcoin supporters to prepare for war. Sullivan believes that after the Ethereum merger, a narrative war will begin between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Sullivan believes that bitcoiners should be prepared to fight back in the event of such a war. While Sullivan's post is now a month old, Dorsey's timing is definitely surprising. What is the problem with the Ethereum merge? The Ethereum merge will change the Ethereum consensus mechanism from Proof-of-work to Proof-of-stake. Proof-of-Work, which is the consensus mechanism used by the top cryptocurrency, is considered to be extremely energy intensive. A recent White House report went so far as to consider a total ban on BTC mining. The Proof-of-stake model reduces PoW power consumption by 99%. However, Dorsey and Sullivan have serious questions about this model. Sullivan believes that PoS is based on the principle of disincentives. PoS cuts staked funds from validators in case of dishonest behavior. He also has claims that PoS is a permissionless system without rules that relies on subjective truth. He also believes that in PoS, money is power and the threat of centralization is a real problem. Sullivan and Dorsey point to OFAC's censorship of Tornado Cash as one such example. On the other hand, they believe that a PoW system is the answer that solves PoS problems. Dorsey is at odds with several influential figures because he believes Proof-of-work is the only correct system. Right now, Bitcoin dominance is at its lowest level in a very long time. Ethereum supporters believe that the second cryptocurrency has the potential to bypass Bitcoin after the merge. Dorsey's comments indicate that there is likely to be a major redistribution of power between the two largest cryptocurrencies. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321778
Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

US Inflation Report And Its Impact On The Cryptocurrency Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 13:03
While the whole world is discussing the Ethereum Merge update, it is important to finally deal with the consequences of slowing down the rate of decline in the inflation rate. CPI reporting had a negative impact on the crypto market and caused a reduction in total capitalization to the level of $998 billion. However, this is only an impulsive reaction of investors to bad news. The consequences of this process in the medium term may be more disastrous. Inflation, the position of the Fed and the crypto market In the summer, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the agency was changing its strategy for raising the key rate. The regulator abandoned the predictive indicator planning model and decided to focus on actual data. The Fed also said that it plans to end the current year with a neutral rate. Powell's statements removed the element of surprise, made Fed policy more transparent and gave investors hope. Markets took the theses of the head of the Fed as a transitional moment to the gradual easing of monetary policy. The peak of such sentiments occurred at the beginning of August, when the inflation rate fell above expectations. A glimmer of hope amid the endless fog of the liquidity crisis provoked other positive rumors. One of the initiators of the positive statements was Arthur Hayes, who believes that as we approach the November Senate elections, the markets will pump up the money supply. The slowdown in the rate of decline in the inflation rate put a bold dot on the likelihood of a change or easing of the Fed's current policy. After the publication of the CPI for August, an increase in the key rate by 75 basis points in September is a settled issue. In addition, the current order of movement of the price of Bitcoin and other financial instruments remains. New Rules for Bitcoin Price Movement Insufficient rates of inflation reduction are forcing the Fed to maintain the current level of influence on world markets. The withdrawal of liquidity and the increase in the key rate to strengthen the USD will continue. Considering this index, DXY remains the main financial instrument for the coming months. Bitcoin continues to maintain a close correlation with stock indices. Considering the macroeconomic situation, high-risk assets remain a single category of low-value investments at this stage. It follows that with active trading of BTC/USD, other cryptocurrencies and stock indices, the rule of mandatory DXY analysis remains. With a high degree of probability, when the US dollar index rises, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies go down or move flat. The publication of CPI reports caused opposite reactions from BTC and DXY. The inverse correlation of the two assets is obvious and should be a key element of active BTC/USD trading. BTC/USD Technical analysis Bitcoin managed to hold on to the $20.1k–$20.2k support area. The cryptocurrency successfully defended the $19.1k line following the results of yesterday's trading day, and moved to the stage of consolidation. In the coming days, we should expect a stabilization movement in the BTC/USD price without significant impulse movements. Technical metrics confirm this scenario. On the daily chart, the RSI index and the stochastic oscillator made a sharp reversal to the side. The MACD indicator has also completed an upward spurt and started moving in a flat direction. The publication of the CPI had a significant negative impact in both the short and medium term. Given the successful upgrade of Ethereum, we can soon expect a decrease in investment activity and a drop in the level of Bitcoin dominance. The main focus of the market will be on the altcoin, which may cause BTC to be undervalued. Demand and scarcity After a short consolidation, Bitcoin may resume its upward movement due to its growing scarcity in the market. Long-term investors continue to actively buy up BTC coins, reducing their volumes in the public domain. In addition, Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked at 32.045 trillion hashes. This means that mining a BTC block has never been so difficult. Accordingly, in the coming weeks, we can expect a local upward movement of Bitcoin to the $24k–$25k area due to its underestimation and growing scarcity. Medium-term prospects for Bitcoin Despite the rising inflation, the situation will begin to improve closer to winter. Most likely, the reason for this will be a significant reduction in liquidity and the aggravation of recession in the US economy. The combination of these factors will force the Fed to resume filling the markets with money, which will positively affect Bitcoin. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321796
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Australian Dollar (AUD): Reserve Bank Of Australia May Choose Less Aggresive Varaint As Unemployment Increased A Bit

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 15.09.2022 13:43
On Thursday, financial markets seem to be characterized by less volatility than in the first half of the week. Investors may continue to delve into the Fed's latest actions after the latest inflation reading from the U.S. and ponder how any rate hikes could affect stock, bond, dollar or cryptocurrency quotes. Situation in the markets and mixed data from the Antipodes This morning, the DAX was up 0.17 percent at 6:52 a.m. CET, while the CAC 40 was unchanged from its previous day's position at the same time. The FTSE 100 rose 0.49 percent. The euro fell 0.13 percent against the dollar to 0.99680 at 7:06 a.m. CET, while the pound lost 0.17 percent against the U.S. dollar to 1.15204. From macroeconomic data overnight, we learned that unemployment in Australia unexpectedly rose to 3.5 percent in August from 3.4 percent, the first increase in 10 months. This result may support the Reserve Bank of Australia's earlier signal of a potential move to smaller interest rate hikes. New Zealand's economy, on the other hand, grew more than expected in the second quarter (0.4 percent year-on-year), avoiding recession after a surge in Covid-19 cases caused the economy to contract in the first three months of the year. Read next: China May Need Less Crude Oil - IEA Report Finds. The European Union Considers Limitations On Power Demand| FXMAG.COM Source: Conotoxia MT5, AUDUSD, D1 The Ethereum Merge The world's two largest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), fell on Thursday after the ethereum exchange rate earlier posted an intraday gain of more than 4 percent. This time, the second-largest cryptocurrency fell more than 2 percent, with the entire cryptocurrency community expecting a transition to a proof-of-stake model with proof-of-work (known as The Merge) to take place in the next few hours, BBH reported. The years-long, system-wide upgrade of the ethereum blockchain will mark one of the most historic events in the cryptocurrency sector, according to CNBC. Katie Talati, head of research at asset management firm Arca, said in an interview with CNBC: "we believe that after The Merge Eth bullish sentiment towards ethereum will be much stronger for a number of reasons." The main factor is expected to be a decrease in supply, which will make ETH a more scarce and harder-to-access token, which could translate into price, Talati added. Source: Conotoxia MT5, ETH/USD, D1 Merge ETH, and what's next for BTC? From the point of view of the chart of the world's largest cryptocurrency, the price of BTC remains in a fluctuating range between $18343 - $25016. In addition, in recent times, the BTC/USD exchange rate may be capped by the trend line drawn after previous peaks. It seems that only overcoming this place could be more favorable for the bulls. In turn, overcoming the support could open the way towards $12582. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTC/USD, W1 Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Read article on Conotoxia.com
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Is More Likely To See A Pull Back

Ethereum Might Turn Bullish From The Current Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 14:16
Technical outlook: Ethereum rose through the $1,654 intraday high on Thursday before pulling back sharply through $1,580. The crypto is again gaining ground. It is seen to be trading close to $1,595 at this point in writing. A push above $1,654 will open the door for a further advance as the bulls target the $1,800-10 zone in the next few trading sessions. Ethereum has already carved a meaningful larger-degree downswing between $2,031 and $1,423 as seen on the 4H chart. Furthermore, the counter-trend rally remained just shy of the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement seen around the $1,800-10 zone. The possibility remains for yet another attempt to test the $1,800 handle and also up to $1,900 before giving in to the bears. Ethereum might turn bullish from the current price action until $1,423 and $1,480 interim supports are in place. Prices have retraced from $1,790 through $1,560 in a corrective way and have found support around the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally between $1,480 and $1,790. A push above $1,675 will potentially confirm a test of the $1,800 handle. Trading plan: A potential rally back towards $1,800-10 against $1,423 Good luck!   Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292959
Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA) And Employment Report, Crypto: The Merge As A Stimulant?

Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA) And Employment Report, Crypto: The Merge As A Stimulant?

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 15.09.2022 16:26
Stock markets are a bit mixed on Thursday following a rollercoaster week in the run-up to, and aftermath of, the US inflation report. Safe to say, investors got ahead of themselves in a desperate attempt to board the peak inflation train early. The collapse on Tuesday – carrying into Wednesday in Asia and Europe – looked quite severe on the face of it but it was simply an unwinding of positions built on the anticipation of a good set of numbers in the days leading up to it. While the Fed is now almost certain to hike by 75 basis points next week and more in the months that follow than previously anticipated, the view still seems to be that Tuesday was a setback rather than a game changer. Confidence that we are at or near peak inflation is dented but not broken and this week serves as a reminder that as was the case on the way up, the path back to 2% will likely be littered with nasty surprises. RBA will likely welcome labour market report This will likely be the case for most central banks, not just the Fed, with the RBA seen to be in the early stages of its pivot towards slower tightening. After hiking rates by 50bps, markets are now pricing in a 25bps hike next month although as we’ve seen so often this year, that could quickly change with the data. The labour market figures today could support such a move, as employment rose a little less than expected while participation also rose, unexpectedly lifting the unemployment rate to 3.5%. The Aussie dollar rose after the release but has since given the bulk of that back. PBOC leaves MLF unchanged and supports CNY The PBOC’s battle to support the yuan continued on Thursday as it left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.75% and set a stronger fix on the currency. The result was around 200 billion yuan being withdrawn from the banking system, with the central bank stating that it would “keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample”. The dual threat of a slowing economy and tumbling currency against the dollar is posing quite the challenge for the central bank which is continuing to try and push back against both, with limited success. Yen steady amid intervention warnings The yen remains a key focus after a slew of intervention commentary yesterday which accompanied reports of a rate check by the BoJ. While officials have been keen to state that no warning of intervention will be forthcoming, nor perhaps even confirmation of it, the line in the sand around 145 against the dollar appears to have been drawn. The message was loud and clear and now it’s just a case of whether markets will respect it. That’s not always the case and we could see its resolve tested after 24 years without such action. Will it be a “sell the fact” event? Bitcoin has stabilised once more around $20,000 after Tuesday’s bruising encounter with the US inflation data. As we saw elsewhere, the cryptocurrency had rallied in anticipation of something more favourable but it wasn’t to be. With that now behind us, the question will become how the crypto space reacts to the Ethereum Merge. It’s been a long time in the making and the question on traders’ lips right now is will it be the next bullish catalyst for cryptos or a “sell the fact” event. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil steady, gold vulnerable - MarketPulseMarketPulse
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

The Ethereum Market Remains Under Strong Bearish Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.09.2022 10:31
Crypto Industry News: Megadeth, pioneers of thrash metal, continue their adventure with Web3. They prepared "Rattleheads", a collection of digital art whose main theme is the group's mascot, Vic Rattlehead. Megadeth and NFT Produced by Five To One Collective in collaboration with Upper Echelon Studios, the collection is inspired by the band's long-time fan club, Cyber Army, and the mascot, Vicio Rattlehead, a ghoulish character that features on most of the band's album covers. The project is to be expanded with additional tools that will be revealed in the near future. Megadeth leader Dave Mustaine emphasized in his statement that his group has always been a pioneer - and not just in terms of art: "Our first album set the standard for thrash metal. We were the first band to have a website. The Cyber Army Club was founded in 1994. Our 2016 album" Dystopia "featured VR descriptions. And now, as technology advances. Web3 and its ability to connect us directly with our fans - this moment is perfect for Megadeth. It is the ultimate bond with our community (...) "- he wrote. It is worth recalling that the band's first approach to the NFT market took place in 2021. Then the NFT project "Vic Rattlehead: Genesis" appeared on the market, containing the band's logo and its iconic mascot rotating in opposite directions for six seconds. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair is trading out of the channel and the bearish pressure is still high. The market is slowly approaching the last mont's low seen at the level of $1,423. The levels of $1,513, $1,649, $1,689 and $1,722 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,424 and below. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,875 WR2 - $1,807 WR1 - $1,765 Weekly Pivot - $1,738 WS1 - $1,697 WS2 - $1,670 WS3 - $1,601 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,358. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9 Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293053
EM Index Inclusions and Exclusions: India Thrives, Egypt Faces Challenges

The Markets Are Concentrated On Inflation, Crude Oil Is Down

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 16.09.2022 10:24
US railroad companies and the unions representing their workers reached a tentative agreement early Thursday to prevent a rail strike in the US. Avoiding a rail strike is good news, but not good enough to give a smile to investors. The markets remain too focused on inflation. Increases and decreases The S&P500 closed the session more than 1% lower, as US retail sales and jobless claims – which both hinted that the US economy remains relatively resilient to the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes - didn’t help keeping the Fed hawks at bay. The US 2-year yield spiked to 3.90%, the mortgage rates in the US topped 6%, the US dollar consolidated a touch below the 110 level, Ethereum lost 10% and gold dived to $1660 per ounce. US crude took a good 4% dive. But this time, it wasn’t just the recession talk, it was because the Americans rectified a beginner’s mistake that they have made earlier this week, saying that they will refill their strategic oil reserves if prices fall below $80 per barrel. Waiting For Reports We will likely close this week on a sour note. Next on the economic calendar are the final European CPI read, which will confirm that inflation spiked to 9.1% in August, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which will hopefully not print a significantly positive number, because the Fed hawks got strong enough the week before the Fed decision. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 US rail strike will likely be avoided! 2:08 But sentiment remains sour on strong US data 3:57 World Bank points at recession 5:04 Crude oil down as Americans understand their mistake 6:41 Strong dollar weighs on major peers 6:55 Joke of the day 7:09 Ethereum down 10% post Merge upgrade 7:51 Adobe dives 17% on Figma acquisition 8:44 Watch EZ final CPI & UoM Consumer Sentiment today! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #rail #strike #inflation #USD #EUR #GBP #Gold #XAU #crude #oil #natgas #energy #crisis #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Merge #update #Bitcoin #Adobe #Figma #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Crypto: The Merge - 45% Nodes Managed By Two Addresses!? Paolo Ardoino (Bitmex, Tether) Comments On ETH's PoS

Crypto: The Merge - 45% Nodes Managed By Two Addresses!? Paolo Ardoino (Bitmex, Tether) Comments On ETH's PoS

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.09.2022 08:57
Market picture Bitcoin has lost 1.6% over the last 24 hours to $19,777 amid renewed pressure on risk-sensitive assets. BTC remains just under the critical $20K round level, where it got support for the past three months. Ethereum lost the speculative support it received before the move to PoS. Over the last day, Ether lost 8.6%, more than three times more than the 2.6% reduction in overall crypto capitalisation. Weakness of this kind is an almost inevitable consequence of a previous period of overperformance, much of the gains of which have yet to be erased. Trading at $1500, Ether is now almost 50% above the area of the June-July lows, while Bitcoin has rolled back to its lows of that period. News background Tether and Bitfinex technical director Paolo Ardoino said the move to PoS will not help the second cryptocurrency catch up to Bitcoin. The Merge will not lower transaction fees or make ETH more decentralised, nor will it increase network capacity. Ethereum cannot compete with BTC as a form of money because it has no maximum issue limit. According to Santiment, more than 45% of Ethereum nodes launched after The Merge update are managed by just two addresses, raising concerns crypto community concerns about centralisation. Read next: Asia: Chinese Retail Sales Rose | Does Weaker CNH (Reminbi) Support Chinese Economy? | FXMAG.COM According to Chainalysis, developing countries are leading the world in cryptocurrency adoption. Vietnam and the Philippines lead the rankings due to the popularity of cryptocurrency and NFT gaming projects. Of the developed countries, only the US and China are in the top 10, ranking fifth and 10th, respectively.
Cryptocurrencies A Better Version Of Payment For Travel

Cryptocurrencies A Better Version Of Payment For Travel

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 17.09.2022 08:47
It happened seamlessly. On Thursday, The Merge fused Ethereum’s PoS testnets, cutting the chain’s energy consumption by a whopping 99.95%. Ethereum fans joined the online watch party, and even Google celebrated the event with a live countdown on its site. We honour the crypto milestone with an ETH giveaway, and take our hats off to everyone who made The Merge happen. Markets Spotlight Note: Market prices captured in US$ at the time of reading. Explore more on Crypto‌.com/Price. News Snaps Starbucks will offer an NFT-based loyalty program. CoinDesk reports that Starbucks recently announced an NFT loyalty program running on the Polygon network. Customers will be able to purchase collectible stamps in NFT form that offer immersive experiences and other benefits. DBS, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, set to enter the Metaverse. Singapore bank DBS is set to explore the Metaverse. DBS announced a partnership with The Sandbox, and its aim is “to create DBS Better World, an interactive Metaverse experience showcasing the importance of building a better, more sustainable world, and inviting others to come alongside.” Check out Bitcoin.com for more. The Merge just made Ethereum a whole lot greener. With the recent successful merge, Ethereum is now much more energy efficient. Moving from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake has reduced Ethereum’s blockchain energy consumption over 99.95%. Vitalik Buterin tweeted that it would reduce worldwide electricity consumption by 0.2%. Visit CNN for the full story.   GameFi experiences a 135% jump in fundraising for the month of August. The crypto market as a whole may still be facing a downtrend, but interest in Web3 games and Metaverse projects continues strong. Over US$748 million in funds have been raised in the month of August, Cointelegraph reports. NFT collection Doodles raises US$54M. The well-known NFT collection Doodles recently received US$54 million in funding and a US$704 million valuation. Doodles plans to use this investment to focus on monetising its intellectual property globally in order to scale its growth. See CoinDesk for more details. What’s Ahead Keep an eye out for the Vasil hard fork for Cardano that will take place on 22 September. If the upgrade is successful, it will improve Cardano’s scalability and lower the transaction costs on its network. NFT Spotlight From “Making Dollars” in 1988 to perhaps “Mining Dogecoin” today, Erick Sermon of iconic hip-hop group EPMD launched an NFT collection with renowned Canadian-Indigenous artist, record producer, engineer, and longtime collaborator David “Gordo” Strickland. The hip-hop luminaries also donated a portion of the proceeds from the collection to an organisation that supports Indigenous residential school survivors. “Gordo was at the studio doing these abstract hip-hop legends paintings on his down time. […] He was doing paintings of all of us, and Snoop, and Dre, and Redman and so on. […] I let him do his thing and magic happened.” Sermon, on the origins of his collection Read Crypto.com’s full interview with Sermon and Gordo or browse the collection. Product Picks Six More Tokens Added to Recurring Buy ZRX, GNO, GRT, NEO, and more have been added to the growing list of over 70 supported tokens for Recurring Buy. Crypto.com App users can now access the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) investment strategy for more tokens and to automate purchases, with as little as US$15.  DeFi Wallet Now Supports Nine Languages  Users can now easily and securely manage 700+ tokens across 20+ blockchains, seamlessly swap tokens, earn token rewards, manage their NFTs, and connect with the most popular dApps in seconds in their preferred language.  US$10,000 Prize Pool for the ETH Merge Trading Competition To celebrate this historic event, we’re giving Crypto.com App and Exchange users an opportunity to earn a share of US$10,000 in ETH. Competition ends 30 September. Join now on the Crypto.com App and Exchange. Crypto Level Up What is a DAO? Decentralised autonomous organisations (DAOs) embrace everything that traditional organisations don’t. Here are the values that define a DAO. Flat. No CEOs. No executive committee. No hierarchy. All DAO-related decisions are made collectively by the stakeholders or members of the DAO. Decentralised. A DAO uses smart contracts, not a third party, for execution. But sometimes, members of a DAO may decide to get outside help to fix issues like bugs or updates. Transparent. A DAO hides no secrets. Anyone is welcome to inspect the public smart contract that manages its operations and the full transaction history on the blockchain. Accessible. From chef to bioscientist and yourself, anyone can join a DAO — as long as they fulfil the predetermined requirements, such as holding its governance token.Democratic. Once the voting is done, and a decision made, no single party can veto it. Learn more about DAOs and how they work Crypto IRL Happiness often comes in pairs. Cheers, @Rutger_B79. We hope you enjoyed the moment with your pal, and the Crypto.com Icy White Visa Card, too, of course! Featured Merchant Juan Otero, CEO of Travala.com, tells us how crypto is changing the game of international travel. What can travellers buy with CRO on your site? Travellers can use CRO to book 2,200,000-plus accommodations, flights with over 600 airlines, and more than 400,000 activities across 230 countries and territories. Every booking also receives a 2% giveback in $AVA, Travala.com’s travel utility token, which can be increased to up to 10% by becoming a Smart member. Poor foreign exchange rates are the bane of international travel — can crypto do away with them? Absolutely — the borderless nature of crypto makes it perfect for international travel. When you book online with foreign travel providers, you’re usually hit with foreign exchange fees in addition to credit card processing fees, which on average, add up to around 3%. By booking travel with crypto, both these fees are avoided. The only fee you pay is the network fee, which in most cases is just a few cents. What’s the swankiest trip someone has paid for in crypto on your site? Our luxury travel division, Concierge.io, has organised some incredible recent experiences for crypto enthusiasts — and when we say experiences, we don’t just mean flights and hotels. We’re the exclusive payment provider for Rare Vibes AVClub when it comes to their events in Miami. Earlier in April, RVAC’s BTC Miami Event was the talk of the town, with musical acts such as Diplo, ATrak, Bassjackers, and several others at MAPS Backlot in Wynwood. Have you paid for a flight or hotel in crypto yet? Where to?Of course! My most recent crypto booking was for flights and accommodation for the upcoming Singapore Grand Prix. My co-founder, Steve, and I will be catching up with the previous Travel Tiger Club giveaway winner in June. Decoder Bagholders are individuals who do not sell their assets, even if the price drops significantly or ends up at zero. There are many possible reasons for an investor to become a bagholder. For one, sometimes investors believe so strongly in a project that they are unaffected by short-term price action.  Another reason is that they missed out on the crash, with the asset price dropping so quickly they didn’t have time to sell it. Finally, some investors become bagholders because they became disinterested in a project and forgot about their investment. Once they do check, they feel there is no point in selling, as it is worth a fraction of their initial investment. This Week in Crypto History Vitalik Buterin in Time magazine’s top 100 most influential people. This time last year, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was featured as one of the top 100 most influential people of 2021. Buterin ranked among the likes of Elon Musk, Alexis Ohanian, and Billie Eilish. That’s it for this week’s Snapshot. Want more? Head over to our Insta feed for bite-sized crypto lessons.    
Epic Games and Lego Group are collaborating to build a metaverse. Ubisoft is partnering with Reality Labs to create a NFT collection

Disney On NFT Market, Starbucks brewing NFT Customer Loyalty Platform And More

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 17.09.2022 08:57
Disney is exploring and developing plans for the metaverse. ConsenSys launches free NFTs to commemorate Ethereum’s Merge. Gods Unchained is teaming up with GameStop. Key Takeaways Disney revealed that it is continuing to explore and develop plans for the metaverse. The company has also been active in the NFT space. Collaborating with NFT marketplace VeVe, it launched the “Golden Moments” collection, which includes Spiderman, Mickey Mouse, and more. “Regenesis”, an NFT collection launched by ConsenSys to commemorate Ethereum’s Merge, is available to claim. The NFT is free to mint, and the claim window will be open for 72 hours starting from the day of The Merge. Gods Unchained is teaming up with GameStop to welcome GameStop customers into the card game’s ecosystem. GameStop PowerUp Pro members will receive a unique code that can be used to redeem Gods Unchained expansion packs containing NFT trading cards. X2Y2 recorded a -17% decrease in sales and a -6% decrease in transactions. Meanwhile, OpenSea‘s sales were positive at +51% and its transaction count also increased +38%. The total market cap for GameFi tokens now stands at US$8.43 billion, down -6% from last week. Crypto.com NFT in the Spotlight Luca De Massis is dropping his very first PFP collection, “TMK”, on Crypto.com NFT. It includes 3,000 NFTs with over 250 traits and unique moods. TMKs are not only highly intelligent but also very sociable, likeable, and fiercely protective of humans. “7 Paintings of Heaven and The Lost Artwork” is an art collection by MACHADOXLEAO that is inspired by John Bunyan’s 1678 allegory “The Pilgrim’s Progress”.  This drop features utilities for collectors, such as original design files and Zoom calls with the creator. NFT Highlights Reddit’s Ohanian leads $54 million Doodles capital raise Paradigm unveiled variable rate gradual Dutch auctions mechanism for Art Gobblers Y00ts mint t00b Is the 7-day biggest NFT collection, surpassing $7.9M in SOL Cardano’s first NFT lending platform announces $25,000 in bounty ahead of mainnet launch Automobili Lamborghini’s “The Epic Road Trip” announces its September NFT utilities Starbucks brewing NFT customer loyalty platform, so are smaller coffee shop chains LG embraces NFT tech with new ‘LG Art Lab’ smart TV application GameFi Highlights Guild of Guardians teams up with top names in esports to grow Web3 game How GameFi contributes to the growth of crypto and NFTs Gala Games launches Superior alpha playtest Over 40% of GameFi users are using the WAX blockchain Web3 gaming still growing despite economic woes, according to DappRadar report GameFi and NFTs set to be first to recover from downturn as venture funds flow in NFT Transaction Benchmark The following chart shows select top NFTs and their historical floor prices: Top Collections The following table shows select top creators (by sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Sample Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $106,800 Minted VVS Miner Mole $86,800 Magic Eden Y00ts: mint t00bs $2,778,000 OpenSea CryptoPunks $3,476,000 Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Loaded Lions Sales Volume (USD) $106,800 Sample Platform Minted Collection VVS Miner Mole Sales Volume (USD) $86,800 Sample Platform Magic Eden Collection Y00ts: mint t00bs Sales Volume (USD) $2,778,000 Sample Platform OpenSea Collection CryptoPunks Sales Volume (USD) $3,476,000 Sample GameFi Top Gainers & Losers Top Games Metrics Daily Gamers by Blockchain Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters  Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags crypto research cryptocurrencies GameFi NFT Ready to start your crypto journey? Get your step-by-step guide to setting up an account with Crypto.com By clicking the Get Started button you acknowledge having read the Privacy Notice of Crypto.com where we explain how we use and protect your personal data.   DOWNLOAD APP
"From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside"

Over The Weekend The Ethereum Price Has Clearly Broken And Back Tested

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.09.2022 08:25
Blue line- neckline support In previous posts we warned traders that Ethereum was most probably forming a head and shoulders bearish pattern and a break below $1,500-$1,450 would accelerate selling and provide a new bearish signal. Over the weekend price has clearly broken, back tested and got rejected at the blue neckline. This was once support and is now key resistance. Price is now under pressure and we are looking for a move lower towards $1,000. The head and shoulders pattern target is at $850. However our first target and next important support is at $1,200-$1,180. Short-term trend remains bearish. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-20 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293191
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

Ethereum Is The Most Preferred Option For Smart Contracts, Etherscan What Is It?

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 19.09.2022 10:41
Unarguably the “poster image” for blockchain, Ethereum is one of the biggest and most important names within blockchain circles and discussions. However, many beginner, intermediate, and even expert blockchain users might have encountered difficulty, occasionally or frequently, navigating the Ethereum blockchain. If this sounds like you then this article is just what you need. While the information in this article will not magically wave all your confusion about the Ethereum blockchain away, it definitely will go a long way in making your blockchain experience more enjoyable. Welcome to our brand-new educational series on Ethereum, which is a consumer awareness initiative to help understand everything about the inner workings of the Ethereum blockchain,Ether token, and much more. What are Blockchain Explorers? Because blockchains, such as Ethereum, are open-source and decentralized, anyone with an internet connection can examine its contents whenever necessary or desired. This is where blockchain explorers come in. This platform can offer the best foundation for learning about the fundamentals of a blockchain. That said, blockchains that prioritize privacy above decentralization, such as Monero, might limit spectators’ access to information. Outside of that, most blockchains are open to dissection on request. One popular yet underused tool for peering into or dissecting network activity is ‘Etherscan.’ Etherscan: The Basics This blockchain explorer, as it is fondly called, allows users to evaluate anything and everything on the Ethereum blockchain, such as observing transactions in real-time, viewing wallet activities, and many other interesting use cases. For a simpler understanding of Etherscan, think Google but for blockchain. Etherscan Homepage This easy-to-use and trusted blockchain tool mandates no sign-up required for users to access the ever-increasing depths of the Ethereum blockchain, rightfully earning it the Google for Ethereum analogy. The Origin Story of Etherscan Etherscan is a not-for-profit platform created by a small team of developers led by Mathew Tan, the current CEO, to make Ethereum more open and accessible to the public. “Our mission is to facilitate Blockchain transparency by indexing and making searchable all transactions on the Ethereum Blockchain in the most transparent and accessible way possible,” the team states. The blockchain explorer was launched in 2015, around the same time as Ethereum, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Etherscan boasts of having 5 million users per month, who use the platform as the “source of truth” for events and occurrences on the Ethereum blockchain. Etherscan also serves as an archive for Ethereum and stores historical data for newer generations of Ethereum and blockchain enthusiasts. The network is completely independent and is not funded or managed by the Ethereum Foundation, allowing it to maintain an unbiased stance on Ethereum. Understanding Etherscan The basic functionality of Etherscan is similar to any other blockchain explorer. It allows users to look up transactions, wallet activities, smart contracts on the blockchain, and so much more. Etherscan brings all this functionality to the fingertips of the user, through a search bar or by navigating the menu options on the homepage of the website. Blockchain technology provides transparency for all activities, giving users an avenue to query data. Etherscan simply acts as an aggregator and visual interface to this data; a search engine. Not only that, its use case has expanded over the years to include more data and services as it evolves with the general blockchain ecosystem. As mentioned earlier, users can choose between creating an account or using the platform without one. Not having an account does not limit the amount of data users can access in any way. Also, developers can easily access the API services to build decentralized applications (dApps) or serve as a data feed. More on this later. Due to its support for user accounts, some people think Etherscan is a wallet service provider; it isn’t. Also, wallet addresses cannot be integrated on Etherscan. However, users can input and verify their Ethereum address on Etherscan and track transactions and activities. Why Use Etherscan? Now that you know the basics of Etherscan, the question “why” might have crossed your mind. Answering why you should use the blockchain explorer is necessary to becoming an independent-thinking blockchain user. Gaining more knowledge on how to explore and analyze the blockchain will give you a better perspective as a blockchain user or enthusiast. Beyond that, knowing how to use Etherscan can save you from making wrong or costly decisions and even set you ahead of the curve. For instance, monitoring whale activities will keep you updated with the movements of large amounts of cryptocurrency to and from exchanges. Most times, this knowledge or information can be used to preempt market rallies or sell-offs in the crypto market, allowing you to position strategically. You can also use the information from Etherscan to conduct in-depth due diligence on the founders of a token and what they are doing with the underlying token. This insight can allow you to identify potential scams or rug pulls. How To Use Etherscan Blockchain or Ethereum enthusiasts can simply log on to the Etherscan website and begin exploring, it’s that easy. To view specific wallet details and transactions, however, the user will need to provide the specific wallet address or the transaction ID. Etherscan allows users to quickly search the desired address, transaction ID, block, token, or the Ethereum Name Service (ENS). As noted earlier, think of it the same way you would input a term into the Google search bar. Users can also browse or search transaction history and examine the existing state of the Ethereum network from the Etherscan homepage. Additionally, users can create watchlists of accounts to track, make notes, and turn on notifications on their favorite or desired metrics or accounts. Described below are some of the ways users can decide to use Etherscan. Looking Up Transactions On Etherscan One of the most common uses of Etherscan is to view and track specific transactions. To look up specific transactions on the blockchain explorer, simply input the transaction ID on the search bar. Users can also open the transaction tab of a contract page, which would display every transaction related to the contract. This could include minting, transfers, sales, burning, settings on a wallet, and so much more. As one would expect, all this data and activity is time-stamped on the blockchain. Monitoring a Transaction Hash A transaction hash is used to track or trace the progress of a transaction on the blockchain. To monitor a transaction, simply copy the transaction hash in question and paste it into the search bar on Etherscan. Once you do this, a flurry of transaction details will be displayed. The displayed information would include transaction status (failed or successful), the block height in which it was sent, transaction costs, gas prices of the transaction, sender and recipient wallet address, and so much more. Examining a Wallet Address On Etherscan Users can easily view the transaction activity on a wallet and how the wallet’s balance changed over time. Wallet information can be gotten by inputting the desired wallet address and selecting “Analytics.” Once done, the user can see the data analytics on a wallet, such as existing and past balances, transaction history, and fees paid. Looking Up the Gas Fees Using Etherscan Etherscan can also be used to track gas prices, measured in Gwei, on the Ethereum network. Gas prices are a crucial part of transaction fees on Ethereum and allow users to trace a transaction up to the block it was confirmed. Every block on the network features specific gas prices, which varies based on existing network traffic or other conditions. Gas Tracker Apart from monitoring gas fees on other transactions, users can track gas fees through the “gas tracker” option, and track or review existing gas prices to make more informed decisions on transactions. Also, the gas tracker tool serves as a metric for predicting network congestion and, as a result, possible price dynamics. Users can also use the gas tracker to determine gas prices required for interacting with certain smart contracts. Viewing NFTs On Etherscan Etherscan released a new feature in 2022 to allow users to view NFTs directly from the platform. In a typical Etherscan fashion, this new feature allows users to get a breakdown of all the information on the underlying NFT, allowing for better trading decisions. This new feature also makes it easier for newbies or beginners to navigate the NFT space and boosts the transparency of NFT ownership and transactions. This makes it easier to verify that an NFT seller is the original owner of an NFT and not a scam. NFT holders can also view their collections on one page. They can do this by opening the Etherscan homepage and inputting (copy and paste) their wallet addresses on the search bar. On the transaction bar, click ‘ERC721 Token Txns’ and instantly have the list of your NFTs displayed on your screen. Take it up a notch by clicking on the ‘Details’ column and clicking ‘View NFT>’ to view the NFT details and properties. Reviewing Token Approvals for dApps Interacting with a dApp automatically gives out some wallet information and access to the dApp in question. This makes it imperative to know exactly what dApp you’re interacting with and if you want that project to have access to your wallet. Token Approval While vetting a DeFi project before interacting with it would save you from several potential pitfalls, you want to be sure the trusted project remains true to its goals and mission or has not been compromised. Etherscan has you covered. Apart from providing the necessary information on a dApp, Etherscan allows users to revoke wallet access to decentralized applications. Users can revoke wallet access by going through the Token Approval Checker portal, which gives the option of blocking a specific dApp the user no longer trusts. Simply search your wallet address on the Token Approval Checker option, review the list of approved smart contracts on the wallet, and click on the ‘Revoke’ icon to end a dApp’s access to your wallet. Viewing Smart Contracts On Etherscan Ethereum remains the king of DeFi and the broadest blockchain ecosystem, making it an integral part of the decentralized finance space. As such, Ethereum is the most preferred option for smart contracts. Smart Contracts Search Page Using Etherscan to search smart contracts and their interactions is a good way to avoid losing funds by sending to the wrong contract. Etherscan Contracts This blockchain explorer makes it easier to research the history of smart contracts and verify ownership. Finding Airdrops On Etherscan Etherscan recently got updated with functionality that provides airdrop details and support. While users cannot capture every airdrop as they are launched, Etherscan allows users to see an overview of which airdrops are active or not, thereby helping the user maximize their possibility of capturing airdrops. This feature also works well for those trying to confirm their eligibility for certain airdrops. Tracking DEX Activities Users of Etherscan can look up information about their favorite decentralized exchanges. Etherscan provides a statistical representation of DEX activities and performance. DEX Pie Chart Charts on DEXs can be customized to include preferred metrics and format and can be downloaded. DEX Tracker Viewing ERC-20 Token Activities Etherscan allows users to keep track of their favorite ERC-20 and ERC-721 tokens in the market. Simply by typing the name of the token into the search bar, users can get in-depth token information, such as the current price, current market capitalization, total number of token holders, number of transactions, contracts listed on the token, and every single transaction involving that token. Token Tracker ERC-721 Page Such utility comes in handy when a user is trying to decide on interacting or investing with a new crypto asset. Users can see the token distribution structure of the project by viewing the holders, which is useful when trying to assess if the token is susceptible to whale manipulation or uneven distribution. Minting NFTs On Etherscan Etherscan can be used by NFT enthusiasts to mint their favorite non-fungible tokens. This is especially useful in times when the hype surrounding the launch of a token causes massive traffic on minting websites, which could cause the website to slow down, be unresponsive, or crash. Etherscan NFT Minting Users can mint the NFT in question directly from the projects’ smart contracts on Etherscan. Several NFT projects, such as Loot, have been minted exclusively through the contract. To mint NFTs using Etherscan, start by making sure you have enough tokens in your wallet, then search the smart contract address through the search bar on Etherscan. You would have to connect your wallet to the platform using the ‘Connect to Web3’ icon. After this, you can click on ‘mint,’ input the transaction details, confirm the transaction, and get the NFT deposited to your wallet. Using Etherscan’s API Another important feature of Etherscan is its application programming interface (API) services. This feature is useful to expert blockchain users and developers and also useful to beginner and intermediate blockchain users for educational purposes. Developers can create an account on the blockchain explorer and use its APIs to create decentralized applications. NFT enthusiasts can also benefit from creating dApps on Etherscan as the dApp would have a dedicated NFT tracker page, where it tracks all NFT transactions and activities on Ethereum. Etherscan also allows developers to integrate its services into their apps or website, which would allow them to display information and statistics directly from Etherscan. Etherscan API Integration Some of the information the API can allow users to display on their websites include specific account information, contracts, transactions, blocks, event logs, Geth/Parity Proxy APIs, and other blockchain statistics. Tracking the Ethereum Blockchain One of the most common uses of Etherscan is to view information about Ethereum. The blockchain explorer can be used to view charts and statistics and derive overviews of the entire Ethereum ecosystem, including market metrics such as daily transactions, unique addresses, and average block size. Ethereum Statistics Information like this is invaluable for Ethereum experts and enthusiasts, especially as the behemoth blockchain transitions from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) system to a Proof-of-Stake verification method. Ethereum Data Limitations of Etherscan While Etherscan provides immense benefits to its users, it is not without its drawdowns. For one, the information provided by the platform can be overwhelming for some, especially newbies or beginners. Another drawdown experienced by most traders is that Etherscan does not provide active trading charts. Users would have to toggle between screens to access active trading charts and view Etherscan statistics. Also, trades on digital assets cannot be executed from the platform, making it unsuitable as a standalone investing or trading service. Final Word Etherscan is an easy-to-use, detailed, and free blockchain analytics tool, making it almost indispensable for those who have grown accustomed to using it. Most of the tools on the platform can be learned and mastered within a short period, as they are basic and explanatory. This makes the platform perfect for users looking to improve their blockchain analytics skills. While there are other blockchain explorers on the market today, Etherscan remains ahead of the pack in many ways, considering it was the template used by most competitors. This makes your acquired Etherscan skills easily transferable to other analytics platforms.   Source: https://www.kucoin.com/blog/what-is-etherscan-and-how-to-use-it
The Previous Week Was Definitely Dominated By The Ethereum's Merge, Now Cryptocurrency World Is Likely To Focus On Fed And Macroeconomy

The Previous Week Was Definitely Dominated By The Ethereum's Merge, Now Cryptocurrency World Is Likely To Focus On Fed And Macroeconomy

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 19.09.2022 14:27
Table of Contents 1. Crypto Market Overview 2. Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers 3. News Highlights This Week: 4. Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week The previous week was optimistic for the crypto market as enthusiasts cheered the Ethereum Merge, marking the transition of the leading smart contract blockchain to a proof of stake consensus. Although, the optimism didn’t translate to the market’s performance, with Bitcoin and altcoins, including Ether, trading in the red through the period as the focus shifted to Fed’s rate hike concerns.   The total cryptocurrency market volume has spiked by 47.73% in the past 24 hours to $70.93 billion, an encouraging sign suggesting high interest in this asset class among investors. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by 6.53% to $908.72 billion in the past 24 hours, falling under the key $1 trillion mark.   Let’s take a look at some of the biggest news from the crypto market and how they can impact digital currencies in the coming week:   Crypto Market Overview After rising to a high of $22,673.82 in the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen under the critical $20,000 level and is going further down following a weekly loss of more than 13%. At press time, the crypto king by market cap trades under the $19,000 level but bounced slightly higher than its weekly low of $18,644.47.   Cryptocurrency Market Heatmap | Source: Coin360   A few days after the Merge successfully saw Ethereum (ETH) transition from a proof of work (PoW) to a proof of stake (PoS) network, ETH/USDT gave back its gains after reaching a high of $1,745.78. Ether is down by 24.71% as the optimism over the ETH Merge event fades, and the bearish sentiment engulfs the second largest crypto.   The only altcoin that traded in the green over the past week was Chiliz (CHZ), strengthening by 11.17% in seven days. The altcoins that fared the worst in the market include Terra (LUNA), which was down by 48.08% for the week, followed by Terra Classic (LUNC) and Gnosis (GNO), which registered weekly losses of 31.90% and 26.81%, respectively.   Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers Top Altcoin Gainers Chiliz (CHZ) 11.39% Dai (DAI) 0.14% Binance USD (BUSD) 0.07% Top Altcoin Losers Terra (LUNA) 48.08% Terra Classic (LUNC) 31.90% Gnosis (GNO) 26.81% News Highlights This Week After much excitement in the previous week surrounding the landmark Ethereum Merge event, this week’s on the quieter side regarding fundamentals as far as the crypto market is concerned. The focus will remain squarely on factors outside the market, including Fed rate hikes, inflation worries, and the possibility of a global economic recession.   Here are some of the biggest headlines you need to know before trading cryptocurrencies this week:   Crypto Market in Bear Mode - Fed’s Rate Hike and Recession Fears Weigh Macroeconomic factors continue to dominate the minds of crypto investors as all attention turns to the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who could announce a 75bp rate hike this month. Tesla CEO and crypto influencer Elon Musk has already cautioned that a steep hike in interest rates by the Fed and peak Fed hawkishness could bring about deflation in the market, further impacting riskier instruments like digital assets.   Despite the cryptocurrency market enjoying strong fundamentals and increasing adoption, the sentiment continues to experience bearishness due to fears of a recession in the global economy. Rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks increase the cautious mood among international investors and send them towards safer instruments and away from riskier instruments like cryptos and equities. This is one of the significant reasons the market exhibits signs of weakness into a new week.     Analysis of Social Trends in Crypto | Source: Santiment   To make matters worse, the risk-averse mood is further boosted by the World Bank’s warnings about a possible global economic recession in 2023. With central banks worldwide set to follow in the Fed’s footsteps with aggressive rate hikes to offset inflation against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, a slowdown is inevitable. Will Bitcoin and other digital assets hold up and thrive through their first-ever global downturn?   Crypto Fear & Greed Index Signals Extreme Fear According to analytics firm Alternative, the Fear & Greed Index signals Extreme Fear among crypto investors. The indicator considers multiple factors to provide sentiment analysis of the crypto market. The index’s score of 21 is lower than last week’s 25 and a sharp drop from yesterday’s 27, signaling a more bearish bias among crypto investors.     Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative   Analysis of social trends in the crypto market from Sentiment also includes a bearish mood among crypto traders and investors. The most popular terms associated with BTC/USD include bottom, sell, bear market, rekt, and inflation.   On a somewhat positive note, however, there is considerable chatter on social media over the Ethereum Merge, keeping ETH/USD and the Ethereum ecosystem trending. Another digital asset doing well as far as social dominance in crypto markets is concerned is Cardano, but more on that later.   Institutional Investor Interest in ETH Grows After the Merge Analysis of ETH futures trading indicates a strong interest in the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency among investors through the week of the Merge. A comparison of the CME futures trading charts of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum shows higher activity in ETH, suggesting growing interest in Ether among institutional investors, thanks to the critical event.   BTC vs. ETH Futures | Source: TradingView   However, now that the Merge has happened and Ethereum has transitioned to PoS consensus, we’ll have to wait and see if the institutional investor interest in the crypto continues to grow and strengthen. The futures trading charts offer the most promising insight into the level of interest institutional investors have in a particular asset.   Cardano Gets Ready for Vasil Hard Fork This Week Moving beyond the market sentiment, Cardano (ADA) is getting ready for its next major network upgrade on Sep 18, 2022. The Vasil hard fork event was initiated on Sunday, 18 September, and will go live per schedule.   The Vasil era is the most ambitious upgrade to the Cardano blockchain and will usher in significant improvements in its scalability. Plutus V2 scripts will also improve the smart contract capability of the network, making the blockchain an even more attractive platform for decentralized applications (dApps) in the future.     ADA/USDT H4 Price Chart | Source: KuCoin TradingView   Ahead of the hard fork, Cardano’s social activity is on the uptick. This has also translated into higher buying activity in the ADA/USDT crypto pair in the near-term. Santiment’s Social Dominance chart analysis shows a higher volume of social traffic around Cardano even as the enthusiasm over Ethereum Merge fades online.   Will SEC vs. Ripple Case Close Soon? There may soon be light at the end of the tunnel for Ripple (XRP) holders in the lawsuit. Ripple Labs and the US SEC have filed motions for summary judgment in the Southern District of New York, asking the judge to pass a ruling on the case with the information presented.   The move could expedite a ruling, ending the prolonged uncertainty Ripple’s XRP has faced about its status as an unregistered security. Irrespective of whether the judge rules in favor of Ripple Labs, the end of the lawsuit could bring significant relief to holders of the XRP cryptocurrency, which has suffered immensely due to the uncertainty and delays in the case.   Norway’s Central Bank Plans CBDC on Ethereum More potential good news for the crypto market is the Norwegian Central Bank’s decision to explore the nation’s digital currency based on the Ethereum blockchain. Earlier this month, Norges Bank - the central bank of Norway, announced on Twitter that the Nordic nation’s CBDC (central bank digital currency) would be based on Ethereum.   Ethereum will provide the core infrastructure to manage the issuance, distribution, and destruction of Norway’s CBDC. As of July 2022, nearly 100 countries worldwide are in various stages of experimenting and adopting CBDCs as the future of money, with Nigeria and The Bahamas leading the way by fully launching their projects to date.   Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week 20 September 2022 - Metarun (MRUN) - Metarun Public Launch 20 September 2022 - Secret (SCRT) - Mainnet Upgrade 20 September 2022 - Youclout (YCT) - Landsale Launch 21 September 2022 - EOS (EOS) - Antelope Leap V3.1.0 22 September 2022 - Cardano (ADA) - Vasil Upgrade 25 September 2022 - HyperonChain (HPN) - Mainnet Launch Sign up on KuCoin, and start trading today! Follow us on Twitter >>> https://twitter.com/kucoincom Join us on Telegram >>> https://t.me/Kucoin_Exchange Download KuCoin App >>> https://www.kucoin.com/download Also, Subscribe to our Youtube Channel >>>Listen to 60s Podcast Source: Weekly Crypto Analysis: Week After Ethereum Merge, Crypto Market Weighed Down by Rate Hike and Recession Fears | KuCoin
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

Ethereum Is In Upward Trend And Is Still In Bullish Mood

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.09.2022 09:38
Technical outlook: Ethereum climbed through $1,392 during the New York session on Monday before pulling back. The crypto is seen to be trading close to $1,365 at this point in writing and is projected to target up to the $1,800 initial resistance in the near term. Ideally, prices should stay above the $1,279 interim lows to keep the near-term bullish structure intact. Ethereum has bounced off the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the larger-degree upswing/rally between $800 and $2,031 as seen on the 4H chart here. Furthermore, it is also the past resistance-turned-support zone around the $1,270-80 mark that has provided the bounce. The bulls seem to be under control for now and are targeting at least $1,800 to go past initial resistance. Ethereum's drop between $2,031 and $1,279 has been in three waves and hence corrective. A continued rally from here towards the $1,790-1,800 levels will confirm that the bulls are poised to push above $2,031 before giving in to the bears again. Only a sustained break below $1,250 will delay matters and might bring back the bears to the market. Trading plan: Potential rally towards $1,800 against $1,279 Good luck! Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293361
Ethereum Market Is Showing Bullish Signals

The Bears Have Taken Full Control Of The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.09.2022 09:55
Crypto Industry News: Last week we witnessed one of the most anticipated developments in the cryptocurrency industry, ie Ethereum switched to Proof of Stake. At the time of the update, the ETH price was around $ 1,600 and a few hours later it had risen to around $ 1,650. However, it was then that the bears took full control of the market and brought prices down to a 2-month low, i.e. below $ 1,300. At the time of writing, ETH costs around $ 1,340, down almost 8% in the last 24 hours and about 20% from the event mentioned. This has made many believe that the update has turned into what transactions refer to as "buy the rumor, sell the news." In other words, investors bought ETH when the merger date was announced earlier this year and sold it when the actual event took place. Another possible cause of the drop could be that many people may have purchased ETH while waiting for the ETHW airdrop. It is also worth noting that the macroeconomic situation remains difficult and the market is waiting for the last Fed decision on interest rates, which is due later this week. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had broken below the last month's low seen at the level of $1,423 and made a new weekly low at the level of $1,281 before a shallow bounce occurred. The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267, $1,255 and below. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,460 WR2 - $1,386 WR1 - $1,346 Weekly Pivot - $1,312 WS1 - $1,272 WS2 - $1,238 WS3 - $1,164 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293369
Further Development Of Ethereum, The Momentum Of Ethereum Remains Weak And Negative

Further Development Of Ethereum, The Momentum Of Ethereum Remains Weak And Negative

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.09.2022 11:55
Crypto Industry News: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared his vision of Layer 3 protocols. While Layer 2 protocols focus on "scalability", the next protocols would serve different purposes. Further changes to Ethereum While Ethereum-based Layer 2 solutions focus on scaling networks, Buterin believes their Layer 3 counterparts will serve a completely different purpose - providing "tailored functionality". He shared his thoughts in a post from September 17th, outlining three "visions" of what Layer 3 solutions will be used for in the future. Ethereum co-founder said that the third layer in a blockchain only made sense if it provided a different functionality than layer two. "The 3-tier scaling architecture, which is to lay down the same scaling scheme on top of each other, usually doesn't work well," he said. Except that "a three-tier architecture in which the second and third layers have different goals, can work" he added. One use case for Layer 3 would be what Buterin describes as "customized functionality" by referring to privacy-driven applications. Another use case would be "customized scaling" for specialized applications that do not wish to use an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) to perform computation. Buterin also added that layer 3 can be used for scaling with the Validiums tool. This can be beneficial for enterprise blockchain applications by using a "centralized server that runs validation checks and regularly shortcuts the chain." However, Buterin also noted that since interchain transactions can be performed easily and cheaply between two tiers 2, building tier 3 does not necessarily improve network performance. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had broken below the last month's low seen at the level of $1,423 and made a new weekly low at the level of $1,281 before a shallow bounce occurred. The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267, $1,255 and below. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,460 WR2 - $1,386 WR1 - $1,346 Weekly Pivot - $1,312 WS1 - $1,272 WS2 - $1,238 WS3 - $1,164 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293567
Bearish Sentiment Also Dominates The Cryptocurrency Markets

Bearish Sentiment Also Dominates The Cryptocurrency Markets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.09.2022 14:03
Bearish sentiments predominate in both crypto and regular markets as investors worldwide await the FOMC meeting and the following interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Currently the US central bank is expected to increase the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points. However, some believe that a 100 bps hike could be on the table, as inflation remains a constant issue. Bitcoin was under pressure throughout Tuesday's session. Bearish traders now have a short-term technical advantage as BTC fell below the low of early September. While the situation might seem bleak, it is not hopeless, and Bitcoin could recoup its losses, independent market analysts Michael van de Poppe said. Ethereum continues its attempts to gain momentum after The Merge successfully concluded last week. ETH decreased slightly by 0.25% and hovered at $1,327 at the moment of writing. According to CoinMarketCap, out of the 200 top tokens, the best performing cryptocurrencies over the past day were Helium (HNT), which jumped by 10.48%, Render Token (RNDR), which gained 8.43%, and Syscoin (SYS), which rose by 7.11%. The market capitalization of the crypto market currently stands at $929 billion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is at 39.3%. Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322264
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Ethereum Charts Are Still Indicating A Long-awaited Bullish Reversal

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 08:40
Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped through $1,220 during the New York session on Wednesday. Most risky assets were under pressure after the Fed raised an interest rate by 75 bps to tame inflation. Fundamentals might affect a short-term price action but technically, charts are still indicating a long-awaited bullish reversal to resume from here. Ethereum has completed three waves between $2,031 and $1,220 as seen on the 4H chart here. The above drop seems corrective and is bouncing off the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the early rally between $800 and $2,031 as seen on the 4H chart here. If the above structure holds well, the bulls will be back in control soon. Also, note that the RSI has produced a bullish divergence as prices dropped to a fresh swing low at $1,220. A combination of a bullish divergence, the past resistance-turned-support zone and the Fibonacci 0.618 bounce offers a highly probable set-up. A push above $1,412 will confirm a meaningful low in place and the bulls are back in control. Trading idea: Potential rally through $1,800 against $900 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293756
"From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside"

Ethereum Is Still In The Short-term Down Trend, The Draft Law About Stablecoins

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 12:01
Crypto Industry News: A bill on algorithmic stablecoins has appeared in the US House of Representatives. If it is passed, it could in practice lead to a ban on this type of cryptocurrency. The law criminalizes the creation or issuance of new "endogenously secured stablecoins". So, in practice, it is about creating algorithmic stablecoins. However, officials want to give their creators a chance. If the new law comes into force, they will have two years to change the security models of their coins. The definition in the draft law states that these are stablecoins, the price of which depends on the value of another digital asset, which is backed by the same creator, and which were created to maintain the price of that stablecoin. It is not known how officials will approach, for example, synthetix USD (SUSD). The project is now protected by a native asset of the same protocol. Other unclear stablecoins include BitUSD, which is backed by bitshares (BTS). In terms of competences, the bill authorizes the US Treasury Department to carry out analyzes on stablecoins. This one would cooperate with the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Currency Controller. It turns out that the future of the algorithmic stablecoin market may be decided by a vote that is to take place next week. According to the media, the draft act was developed by Democrat Congresswoman Maxine Waters and her Republican colleague Patrick McHenry. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has extended the post-Merge sell-off below the key technical support located at $1,281 as the new swing low was made at $1,219. The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. Moreover, the bullish divergence between the price and momentum indicator is seen on the H4 time frame chart, so the bounce might be triggered any time soon. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,460 WR2 - $1,386 WR1 - $1,346 Weekly Pivot - $1,312 WS1 - $1,272 WS2 - $1,238 WS3 - $1,164 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293818
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

JPMorgan's CEO's Reluctance To Digital Assets, The Ethereum Market Is Still In The Short-term Down Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 09:50
Crypto Industry News: Jamie Dimon - CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. - he reiterated his unfavorable position towards the cryptocurrency market. This time, in his statement, he described bitcoin and the rest of the digital assets as "decentralized Ponzi schemes." Aside from JPMorgan's CEO's open aversion to digital assets, the international investment bank has been offering its clients some services related to this market for some time. The company has recently announced that it will continue to provide this type of service, despite the downturn on the market. JPMorgan's executives are known for their hostility to cryptocurrencies and especially for their criticism of bitcoin. Dimon spoke about the first cryptocurrency for years, describing it as "worthless". Additionally, he warned investors to stay away from BTC. In his last speech, the 66-year-old banker once again highlighted his negative stance by calling bitcoin and the entire digital asset market "decentralized Ponzi schemes." He argued that criminals use digital currencies to carry out illegal operations, including money laundering and sex trafficking. Despite many examples of attacks on the cryptocurrency industry, especially from the banking sector, the reality shows that it is a bit different. This is because many banks face accusations of involvement in mass money laundering. During this time, the blockchain technology on which the entire cryptocurrency sector is based is completely transparent, which gives everyone the ability to track the flow of funds. To this day, cash remains the most common form in which criminals carry out drug and other drug transactions. According to various studies, it is estimated that from 34% to 39% of all cash in circulation is involved in such activities. Interestingly, Jamie Dimon, despite his aversion to bitcoin, is not at all critical of blockchain technology and stablecoins. He believes that they can benefit the financial system if a number of comprehensive regulations are introduced. A few months ago, the CEO of JPMorgan once again spoke warmly about blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi). At the time, he said that these technologies were "real" and could be "implemented both publicly and privately, with or without consent." Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has extended the post-Merge sell-off as the new swing low was made at $1,219. The bulls are trying to bounce, so the corrective cycle is ahead of us. The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. Moreover, the bullish divergence between the price and momentum indicator is seen on the H4 time frame chart. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,460 WR2 - $1,386 WR1 - $1,346 Weekly Pivot - $1,312 WS1 - $1,272 WS2 - $1,238 WS3 - $1,164 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293960
Ethereum Market Is Showing Bullish Signals

Ethereum (ETH) Has A Chance For Potential Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:48
Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped through the $1,270 lows over the weekend before finding support again. The crypto might have bounced from the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its recent upswing between $1,220 and $1,328 respectively. The crypto is seen to be trading close to $1,295 at this point in writing and is expected to push higher towards $1,800 at least. Ethereum earlier found support around $1,220 which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $800 and $2,031. Furthermore, $1,220 is also the past resistance-turned-support zone as projected on the chart here. Also, note that an Engulfing Bullish candlestick was produced on the daily chart last week. All the above facts are hinting at a potential rally against $1,200. Initial resistance is seen through the $1,790-1,800 area and the bulls might be targeting the same levels. Only a break below $1,220 will be considered to be bearish as prices might drop towards $1,000 which is initial support as seen on the chart here. Trading plan: Potential rally towards $1,790-1,800 against $1,000 Good luck! Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294128
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Ethereum Co-Founder Buterin Has Urged Zcash To Switch To PoS

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 12:05
Crypto Industry News: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes other blockchain such as Dogecoin and Zcash should follow the same strategy once the Ethereum fusion has ended. When asked during Messari Mainnet 2022 if all networks should go proof-of-stake (PoS), Buterin said yes. Zooko Wilcox-O'Hearn, founder of Zcash, was also present at the conference. Vitalik said: "I predict that as the proof of stake evolves, its credibility will grow over time." This is not the first time Buterin has urged Zcash to switch to PoS. He suggested the same idea in 2018. Ethereum switched to PoS on September 15, following The Merge update. Buterin said the event went smoothly, even though each test network connection encountered "some form of staircase." Buterin identified scalability as the most important challenge for the next 18 months, adding that the ecosystem must "deliver" this. The merger made it possible to drastically minimize the impact of blockchain on the environment. Dogecoin overtook Bitcoin as the second largest proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency. Technical Market Outlook: The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for Ethereum bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. So far the bulls were able to stay inside the narrow zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,358 as the market had been trading inside the zone all the weekend long. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. The momentum is neutral-to-negative on the H4 time frame chart, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294179
China's Deflationary Descent: Implications for Global Markets

Kiyosaki's Statement On The End Of Fake Dollar And Points To A Safe Haven For Investors

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 13:52
Over the weekend, the rate of ether and bitcoin traded quite calmly within the side channel. However, there is still not enough optimism about a larger upward correction of these trading instruments. But before we talk about the technical picture, I would like to say a few words about the recent advice of the well-loved Robert Kiyosaki—the famous author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad." Kiyosaki recently said that fake money has come to an "end" and gave three tips to help investors succeed in market crashes. Kiyosaki tweeted why, in his opinion, the end of "fake" money has come. "End is here. Called Jerry Williams, my trusted gold and silver dealer. He said: 'I can't get gold or silver coins. The mint will not sell me anymore.' To me, this means the end of fake $ is here." The well-known author echoed his recent recommendation: "As stated in earlier tweet silver going to $100 to $500." His advice was immediately followed by another statement in which he claimed that gold is expensive, calling silver the best investment value to date. Kiyosaki's reasoning is very simple: when President Richard Nixon decoupled the US dollar from its peg to gold, the so-called gold standard, in 1971, the US dollar simply became fake money. The author also recalled three lessons of investing: 1: Your home is not an asset. 2: People who save money are losers. 3: The rich don't work for dollars. Last week, Kiyosaki urged people to "invest in real money," naming bitcoin, gold and silver. He stressed that the Federal Reserve is now doing everything to destroy the U.S. economy amid the interest rate hikes. Kiyosaki urged subscribers to buy cryptocurrency now, ahead of the biggest crash in world history. The well-known author has been claiming for months that he is waiting for the price of the cryptocurrency to bottom out before entering. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, nothing much has changed since the weekend. The focus is now on the immediate resistance of $19,000, the return of which is "like air" needed in the near future. If this area is broken, you can see a push up to $19,520 and then to $20,000. To build a larger upward trend, it is necessary to break above the resistance of $20,540 and $21,140. If the pressure on Bitcoin returns, and most likely it will, the bulls should make every effort to protect the $18,600 support that has already been tested several times. Its breakout will quickly push the trading instrument back to $18,100 and open the way to update the $17,580 level. Ethereum remains above $1,270 after the recent crash that occurred immediately after the switch to PoS. The most important task for buyers in the current environment is to get back under control of the $1,350 resistance, which will be quite difficult to get above. Its breakdown will lead to stabilization of the market direction and a slight correction to the $1,440 area. The further target will be the $1,504 and $1,550 areas. If the pressure on the trading instrument continues and the rather important $1,270 support is broken, this will push the Ethereum to $1,210 and $1,150, where the big players will again appear in the market. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322638
Ethereum Prices Should Hold Above Interim Support To Keep The Bullish Structure Intact

Ethereum Prices Should Hold Above Interim Support To Keep The Bullish Structure Intact

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 09:02
Technical outlook: Ethereum climbed through $1,380-90 during the Asian session on Tuesday after reversing from $1,280-85 over the weekend. The crypto is seen to be trading close to $1,385 at this point in writing and is heading towards $1,450 and $1,550-70 in the near term. Ideally, prices should hold above the $1,270-80 interim support to keep the bullish structure intact. Ethereum had earlier dropped from the $2,031 highs through $1,220, carving a meaningful downswing. Please note that the drop was in three waves and hence corrective in nature. Furthermore, prices found support through the past resistance-turned-support zone and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $800 and $2,031. A high probability remains for a push above $2,031 in the next several weeks. Initial resistance is seen through $1,790-1800 and a break higher will confirm a further upside. A minor rally is expected to reach up to the $1,550-80 zone, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent downswing between $1,790 and $1,220. Trading plan: Potential rally through $1,790-1,800 against $900 Good luck!   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294334
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

The Emergence Of Virtual Australian Currency|Situation On The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 09:19
Crypto Industry News: The Reserve Bank of Australia started cooperation with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center and presented the technical details of the CBDC to be launched on the market. We learned that the work on the pilot version of the digital currency of the country's central bank will be completed by mid-2023. According to a recent announcement, the RBA released a white paper titled "Australian CBDC Pilot for Digital Finance Innovation" which investigates use cases of an upcoming financial product. To create CBDC, the institution teamed up with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center (DFCRC). All this within the framework of a research project that investigated all the technological, legal and regulatory aspects of CBDC. In addition, the RBA enabled financial industry participants to express their views on the interaction of the digital currency with the national monetary network. Ordinary non-institutional test participants could also evaluate the product and test its application. The entire research process is expected to end in early 2023, and the results are expected to be announced by the middle of next year. Recall that in September 2021, the Reserve Bank joined forces with the central banks of Malaysia, Singapore and South Africa to test cross-border transactions using CBDC. The Innovation Center of the Bank for International Settlements also participated in the project, supervising the activities of the above-mentioned financial institutions. Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia - Fraziali Ismail - argued that the joint multi-CBDC program "has the potential to leapfrog past payment arrangements and serve as the basis for a more efficient international clearing platform." Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum bulls are trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. So far the bulls were able to break out from the narrow zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,358 and made a local high at the level of $1,393. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the bounce might extend towards the key short-term technical resistance located at $1,407. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294354
GBP/USD Analysis: GBP Maintains Growth Momentum, Market Awaits US Inflation Report

The Entire Cryptocurrency Market Are At Risk Of Going On A Local Bull Run

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 12:52
The Merge did not have a significant impact on Ethereum quotes, as a full-fledged transition to PoS is just beginning. A significant part of the DeFi sector is in transition and the main altcoin is waiting for several updates before the migration is fully completed. The maximum value from switching Ethereum to PoS will become clear during the next bullish rally. Until then, the altcoin continues to fluctuate in the $1,200–$1,800 range. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency managed to slightly improve the situation and rise in price by 7%. Ethereum Gives Bullish Signals As of writing, Ether is trading at $1,380 and continues to be bullish. ETH ended the last trading day with a bullish momentum and a small green candle. Most of the buying volumes in the Ethereum network were already formed on September 27. The cryptocurrency has come close to the $1,400 level, which is a key resistance zone. The asset has every chance to gain a foothold above this level at the end of the current trading day. However, it will be possible to talk about a local price reversal only if it successfully consolidates above $1,450. ETH/USD Technical analysis On the daily chart, ETH/USD is showing serious bullish signals. The RSI index has acquired an upward direction, indicating the formation of buying volumes. The MACD indicator is one step away from forming a bullish crossover and resuming upward movement. A strong bullish signal is shown by the stochastic oscillator. The metric has been unable to overcome the oversold zone since September 14 but has subsequently realized a bullish momentum. The indicator has reached the level of 26 and keeps its upward direction. From a technical point of view, the cryptocurrency is approaching the birth of a local upward trend. If it successfully consolidates above $1,450 at the end of the current trading day, the asset has every chance to develop success in the direction of $1,600–$1,800. Reasons for the likely upward trend The main reason for the likely upward trend of the cryptocurrency may be the correction of the US dollar index. The indicator reached a peak value of 114.5 for more than 20 years, after which it began to correct. Given that the DXY technical metrics are in a state of excessive overbought, a deeper correction should be expected. There is also a gradual increase in trading activity. The number of unique addresses and transaction volumes are growing, which may indicate preparations for a local bullish movement. However, it is most likely that a clear jump in indicators will occur if the price successfully consolidates above $1,450. The positive news was the publication of Stanford researchers with the concept of new standards for Ethereum tokens. The study involves the creation of standards for conducting reversible transactions. Management will be carried out by a decentralized system using a voting system. Conclusions Ethereum, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are at risk of going on a local bull run due to the DXY correction. The gradual influx of funds into crypto funds hints at an improvement in the investment situation in the market. However, to confirm bullish intentions, Ethereum needs to gain a foothold above $1,450 at the end of the current trading day.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322758
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

The Mood And Future Of The Ethereum Market| Statements By Ethereum Miners

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 09:43
Crypto Industry News: We are almost two weeks after the historic moment of the Merge, i.e. the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake model. Due to the abandonment of ether extraction with the existing PoW model and the failure to take off the ETHPoW blockchain resulting from the fork, many former ETH miners complain that they have no idea what to do next. Following the merger, many ETH mining professionals began discussing their future on Twitter. Internet services have contacted several former Ethereum miners to find out what their plans are. The information obtained shows that the mood in this community is currently gloomy, as for many miners nothing is clear about the next steps. Former miner Christian Ander told the service: "Honestly, I don't know which way to go yet. Selling GPU power to other compute-intensive services isn't as profitable as mining ETH. I'm researching myself, and my colleagues are looking for new options for themselves." The former miner recalls that "GPU owners are researching and selling their devices' computing power to another cryptocurrency project, and when energy prices are very high, they shut down and sell excess power to the grid." Ander admitted that he is not mining any cryptocurrencies at the moment and is only observing the market. Another former Ethereum miner, Kevin Aguirre, said he sold his equipment to a person who is now using it to mine other coins. However, it states: "I have a little bit of regret about how the adventure with my mining machine ended, but it finally supported me and my family during the pandemic." At a time when Ethereum used the Proof-of-Work algorithm, GPUs were quite popular. After the Merge almost two weeks ago, GPU manufacturers began to record heavy losses. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had reversed all the recent gains made after the bounce to the level of $1,399 and is currently trading around the demand zone seen between the levels of $1,288 - $1,257. After the aggressive and dynamic reversal, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294546
RBA Pauses Rates as Australian Dollar Slides; ISM Manufacturing PMI in Focus

Powell Touched On The Topic Of The Digital Dollar And The Crypto Industry

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 11:56
Yesterday, the next speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, took place. In his speech, he touched on the topic of cryptocurrencies and, in particular, decentralized finance (DeFi). Coincidence or not, bitcoin and ether reacted with a sharp decline to the statements, which led to the return of trading instruments to quite dangerous levels. But before we discuss the technical picture, let's deal with the statements. At a panel discussion on digital finance organized by the Bank of France, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about the planned regulation of decentralized finance. "The normalization of monetary policy worldwide is very important for the future. We must deal with structural problems in the Defi ecosystem and conflicts of interest." First, one of the most important problems that Powell drew attention to is the structure of transparency. "The good news is that, from the point of view of financial stability, the interaction between the Defi ecosystem, the traditional banking system, and the traditional financial system is not so great at the moment. The recent sharp collapse of DeFi has not significantly impacted the banking system and financial stability in general," Powell said. According to the official, it is necessary to do a lot of work with regulations, but it should be done carefully and thoughtfully. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve System warned that the uncontrolled situation in the crypto industry would not continue indefinitely. There is now a real need for more substantive regulation so that as Defi expands again and begins to cover more and more retail customers, there will be appropriate regulation. It is worth noting that Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Agustin Carstens, Director General of the Bank for International Settlements, also participated in the discussion. The head of the Fed also noted the risk of using stablecoins in a broader sense and the need to develop legislation in this direction. Powell also touched on the topic of the digital dollar, saying that it will take several more years of research before the Fed decides to issue it or not. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, the failure of the trading instrument and the return to the framework of the side channel took place quite quickly. This indicates that investors have no interest in risks. The focus is now on the $19,000 resistance, the return of which is necessary to build a new upward correction in the pair. In the case of a breakthrough in this area, you can see a dash up to $19,520 and into the $20,000 area. To build a larger upward trend, you need to break above the resistances: $20,540 and $21,410. If the pressure on bitcoin increases, and all the prerequisites for this, the bulls should make every effort to protect the support of $18,625, just above which trading is now underway. Its breakdown will quickly push the trading instrument back to the lower border of the $18,100 side channel and pave the way for an update of the $17,580 level. Ether has again failed to reach the significant support of $ 1,275, and now there is a risk of building a new bear market. A breakdown of $1,275 can lead to significant changes in the market. Only a fix above $1,343 will somehow calm the situation and return the balance to the ether. Consolidation above $1,343 will stabilize the market direction and push the ether to another correction in the area of $1,402 and $1,457. The further targets will be the areas: $1,504 and $1,550. If the pressure on the trading instrument remains and at the breakdown of $1,275, we can see a new movement of the trading instrument down to the support of $1,210. Its breakdown will push the ether to $ 1,150, where major players will manifest themselves in the market again.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322886
LFG Has Not Created Any New Wallets| Do Kwon On The Interpol Wanted List

LFG Has Not Created Any New Wallets| Do Kwon On The Interpol Wanted List

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:11
While bitcoin and ether are rapidly falling and returning to their annual lows to break through and collapse even lower, South Korean prosecutors are trying to freeze 3,313 bitcoins on two cryptocurrency exchanges, allegedly associated with the founder of Luna, Do Kwon. The coins were moved shortly after a South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for the Terraform Labs co-founder. It is reported that the South Korean authorities have asked several cryptocurrency exchanges to freeze 3,313 bitcoins allegedly associated with the co-founder of Terraform Labs. The coins were transferred to trading platforms shortly after a warrant for Kwon's arrest was issued in South Korea. Yesterday, a representative of the Prosecutor's Office of the Southern District of Seoul said they have evidence that 3,313 BTC belongs to Kwon. The coins were transferred to trading platforms from a wallet allegedly linked to the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), which was created on September 15. Cryptoquant, the company that handled the investigation, said that the new bitcoin addresses belong to LFG. This conclusion was made based on transaction patterns, related flows, and significant non-public information. By yesterday evening, the Luna foundation rejected the involvement of this cryptocurrency. On Twitter, the company published the bitcoin address of its wallet, adding that LFG has not created any new wallets and has not moved BTC or other tokens that it owns since May 2022. Meanwhile, the location of the founder of Luna is unknown, and he no longer gets in touch. He was believed to be in Singapore, but earlier this month, Singapore police said he was currently out of town. Back on Monday, Kwon tweeted that he was not on the run. Let me remind you that on September 14, a South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for Kwon. He is accused of fraud after the collapse of the Luna cryptocurrency. In addition, it is reported that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country plans to cancel his passport. Yesterday it became known that Interpol had put the co-founder of Terraform Labs, Do Kwon, on the wanted list. The "red notice" that has been issued allows South Korea to receive assistance from law enforcement agencies around the world in finding and arresting a person awaiting extradition, extradition, or similar judicial action. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, the failure of the trading instrument and the return to the framework of the side channel took place quite quickly. This indicates that investors have no interest in risks. The focus is now on the $19,000 resistance, the return of which is necessary to build a new upward correction in the pair. In the case of a breakthrough in this area, you can see a dash up to $19,520 and into the $20,000 area. To build a larger uptrend, you need to break above the resistances: $20,540 and $21,410. If the pressure on bitcoin increases and all the prerequisites for this, the bulls should make every effort to protect the support of $18,625, just above which trading is now underway. Its breakdown will quickly push the trading instrument back to the lower border of the $18,100 side channel and pave the way for an update of the $17,580 level. Ether has again failed to reach the significant support of $ 1,275, and now there is a risk of building a new bear market. A breakdown of $1,275 can lead to significant changes in the market. Only a fix above $1,343 will somehow calm the situation and return the balance to the ether. Consolidation above $1,343 will stabilize the market direction and push the ether to another correction in the area of $1,402 and $1,457. The further targets will be the areas: $1,504 and $1,550. If the pressure on the trading instrument remains and at the breakdown of $1,275, we can see a new movement of the trading instrument down to the support of $1,210. Its breakdown will push the ether to $ 1,150, where major players will manifest themselves in the market again.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322892
"From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside"

Ethereum Is Seen To Be Working On Its Recent Bearish

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 14:09
Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped close to $1,250 intraday on Wednesday before finding some support. The crypto bounced through the $1,305-10 zone thereafter and is seen to be easing off a bit towards $1,290 at this point in writing.The bulls might be inclined to push through the $1,540-50 levels at least before giving in to the bears again. Also, note that the backside of the support trend line would offer resistance at around $1,550. Ethereum earlier dropped through $1,220 after reversing from $2,031 seen on the 4H chart here. The possibility still remains for a strong rally to carry prices above the $2,031 resistance in the next several trading sessions. The bulls need to break above the $1,800 initial resistance to confirm a further upside thereafter. Ethereum is seen to be working on its recent bearish swing between $1,800 and $1,220. The potential resistance zone is seen towards $1,550 which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop (not shown here). Only a break above $1,670-1700 will confirm that the bulls are back in control. Trading idea: Potential rally through $1,550 at least against $1,000 Good luck!   Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294640
Popular crypto bridges and the ways they work - Avalanche Bridge, Polygon Bridge and more

Swissquote's Crypto Market Talk - Feyyaz Alingan Talks Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana And More!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 28.09.2022 23:19
After talking through some interesting crypto news we will look specifically into Solana and how they are planning to go mainstream. 00:00 Intro 00:21 Preview 00:39 Cryptonews 03:07 Bitcoin 05:50 Ethereum 13:03 Cardano 15:01 Solana 17:55 ApeCpoin 18:59 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote  ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:50
Crypto Industry News: The Cardano network has always been a competition to the Ethereum blockchain. Of course, this has translated into competition between communities centered around the two chains. This time, however, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson surprised everyone. He proposes a truce. In a Twitter thread, Charles Hoskinson shared his thoughts on Ethereum and its community. Let us recall that he cooperated with Ethereum (although only for six months and almost ten years ago). Perhaps because of his personal animosities, Hoskinson is sometimes critical of Ethereum. Then he founded Cardano. Today, he seems to be pained by the fact that the Ethereum community continues to ignore the advances Cardano has made over the years. "I've pointed out repeatedly that the top engineers of Ethereum have completely ignored Ouroboros in the last five years," Hoskinson wrote in a tweet. He further argued that this only harms the entire cryptocurrency and blockchain community. He urged users to refrain from falling into this trend, writing that "this means many users are now being forced to make design decisions that are detrimental to them, rather than helping them." "I think that's human nature. But at least we can make a choice not to give in to [the harmful trend]," he added. He further stated that "We don't need to hate anyone or develop bizarre, conspiratorial thinking to achieve our goals. In fact, Cardano does not need cryptocurrency to be successful. " The conciliatory attitude of Cardano's creator comes at an interesting moment when his network went through Vasil's hard fork. However, the project was criticized for a 3-month delay in implementing this change. At the same time, the Merge passed the Ethereum chain, but Vitalik Buterin's team waited for almost 2 years. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had bounced from the demand zone seen between the levels of $1,288 - $1,257, but the bounce was capped at the nearest technical resistance located at $1,358. After the aggressive and dynamic reversal around the level of $1,400, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294769
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

The Fall Of Terra And Luna Cryptocurrency Investors| Trade The ETH/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:56
Crypto Industry News: The CEO of Galaxy Digital - Mike Novogratz - during his speech at the Token 2049 conference, spoke about the fall of Terra and Luna cryptocurrency investors. He stated that many retail investors had lost their investment in the project because they had failed to take into account the risk of volatility. He also accused them of holding their tokens for too long. "It was painful when it all came crashing down," he said. "When a token goes from 20 cents to $ 100 and you are not making a profit, that's crazy." He then pointed to the problem of the lack of a "risk management methodology" by many retail investors who were emotionally buying tokens because they were gaining in value. Speaking at a Singapore conference, Novogratz seemed to be trying to warm up the image of Do Kwon, who is currently being wanted by South Korean authorities on charges of fraud. The Korean prosecutor's office also asked the exchanges to which Terraform Lab's CEO transferred his bitcoins to freeze his assets. Galaxy Digital was one of the investors in the Terra project. What's more, the company's CEO even tattooed the symbol of the Luna cryptocurrency. Novogratz stressed that everything Kwon and Terraform Labs built was fairly transparent and publicly available, which is related to the nature of blockchain technology. Technical Market Outlook: After the aggressive and dynamic reversal around the level of $1,400,The ETH/USD pair has been trading inside a narrow range as the liquidity dries up. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294961
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

Meta Platform Users Can Combine Wallets And Share NFT Tokens In 100 Countries| The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Making Lower Highs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 10:35
Crypto Industry News: Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has announced another expansion in its digital arts initiative. From September 29, all users of both platforms can combine wallets and share NFT tokens in 100 countries. As part of the feature, which is being tested since May, users will be able to tag creators and collectors, as well as transfer digital collectibles between platforms at no cost. In August, Meta began allowing users to publish their digital collectors' items on Facebook and Instagram, and announced its international expansion to countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and the Americas. The company also added support for third-party wallets such as Rainbow, MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Coinbase Wallet, and Dapper Wallet, as well as support for Ethereum, Polygon, and Flow Blockchain chains. Several Twitter users at the time expressed concern about the security and privacy of data sent by linking digital wallets to the Meta platform. In April 2021, confidential personal data of more than half a billion Facebook users was leaked on a frequently visited hacking forum. According to Statista data, Facebook and Instagram have 2.9 billion and 1.4 billion monthly active users, respectively. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been moving lower over the weekend and is currently tradin g just above the demand zone. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295177
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

Kim Kardashian Will Pay To The SEC To Pay Fees Related To The EthereumMax Promotion

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 10:01
Crypto Industry News: Instagram star Kim Kardashian will pay $ 1.26 million to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pay fees related to the EthereumMax promotion. According to a SEC release, the Commission blamed the star for non-disclosure of the $ 250,000 impact it received for promoting EthereumMax. Kardashian also agreed not to promote any cryptocurrencies for three years. The celebrity took part in an action called "pump and dump". Received a lot of money for promoting a cryptocurrency of no greater value. It was only "recommended" by famous people, greedy for money. How does pump and dump work? Well, the cryptocurrency creators who have the most of it spend a lot on promotion. The internet users then invest and raise the price of the asset, and then the authors sell all or most of their coins. In this way, we have a "pump", that is, pumping the valuation, and then "dump", that is, getting rid of an asset that has obtained a high valuation due to earlier promotional activities. An unaware investor thinks that he is allocating money into something attractive, and then it turns out that he will not get back what he spent. In 2021, Kim Kardashian shared promotional content on her Instagram. The celebrity has one of the largest amounts of followers on social media. Kardashian has approximately 331 million Instagram fans and nearly 74 million Twitter fans. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the demand zone and is heading higher towards the nearest technical resistance located at $1,358. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295322
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Staking Etherum Is Too Hard And The Ethereum Market Continues Previous Movements

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.10.2022 09:49
Crypto Industry News: Following the proof-of-stake (PoS) transition of the Ethereum network, Ether (ETH) stacking now plays a central role in block validation and network security. However, some community members find the betting process too difficult, especially for the common people. Staking Etherum is too hard, community members say. On the Ethereum subreddit, a community member raised the topic of ETH betting and its difficulties. According to the user, it took him an entire weekend for everything to work. A user said this might be something that people with "tight" schedules cannot accept. In response to the thread, another community member also shared his ETH betting experience and mentioned the origins of Ethereum. The user noted that in those days, interacting with the blockchain was also difficult before more user-friendly options appeared. The community member also stressed that setting up the node requires "more effort than we might expect the average person to put into it." In addition to configuration difficulties, the issue of bandwidth consumption was also raised. Due to the high bandwidth consumption, the user said there was a risk of ISP shutdown. Another user mentioned that the costs of exceeding your internet data cap could possibly kill any staking gains. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the demand zone and is heading higher towards the nearest technical resistance located at $1,358 - $1,378. The momentum is strong and positive, so ETH bulls are getting ready to follow the recent BTC rally. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295499
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Altcoins: You May Be Shocked With The Expectations For Ethereum Price (ETH/USD)!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 05.10.2022 15:51
Ethereum price enters a dangerous technical setup as price action fails to make new highs for October. ETH price is at risk of dropping back to $1,243 later this week. Expect to see pressure building on $1,243 with another leg lower towards $1,100. Ethereum (ETH) price action has been printing some nice gains with 7% on the docket in just two trading days this week. This third trading day indicates a change in sentiment that could see bearish pressures mounting. There is a risk that all gains from this week will be lost, and no new highs for the month will be printed. Further, bears may have an opportunity to break back below $1,200 by the end of the week if dollar strength kicks in. ETH price says goodbye to $1,400 forecast and instead welcomes in $1,200 Ethereum price takes a step back this morning with already -1% on the quote board as markets are rolling over in sentiment and seeing risk assets sold-off. The shift in sentiment comes from geopolitical tensions in Asia, where the US and South Korea have held joint exercises, including several missile attacks in response to North Korea after it launched a missile again on Tuesday. With the emergence of this new tail risk markets are worried that the US is poking the Chinese bear a bit too much. ETH price thus slips 1% for now and looks set to drop back to $1,300. From there, it is not that far to hit $1,243 and challenge that level as bears rush into the price action to drive it into the ground. This is because Ethereum bulls cannot make new highs for the week, which could point to a false bounce off support at $1,243. If that level breaks, $1,100 comes into play with the monthly S1 support level as nearby support to underpin the price action. ETH/USD Daily chart On the other hand, it is quite normal that markets would take a small step back as a three-day-winning streak is quite exceptional unless a big positive catalyst comes into play. If so, and a more bullish catalyst comes into play, expect this to be a phase purely of profit taking, and a small step back before further advances in price action. If so, a rally could materialise and pick up speed again by Friday towards $1,400.
A New Ethereum Index Fund And The Ethereum Market Continues Its Trend

A New Ethereum Index Fund And The Ethereum Market Continues Its Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.10.2022 10:38
Crypto Industry News: Institutions continue to expand their offerings in the cryptocurrency realm as global regulators increasingly seek to establish a working framework to deal with an emerging asset class as adoption surges. Recently, Fidelity Investments launched a new Ethereum Index fund that will provide its clients with Ether (ETH) exposure, according to a document filed by the company with the SEC on September 26. The new fund accepts a minimum outside investment of $ 50,000, and has already recorded over $ 5 million in reported sales. The multi-million dollar asset manager originally launched its cryptocurrency-focused institutional depository and trading platform Fidelity Digital Assets in 2018. The company now offers two exchange-traded crypto funds that are dedicated to digital payments and the metaverse market. This latest change follows a disclosure last month that Fidelity Investments is considering the idea of allowing all its retail clients to access Bitcoin (BTC) trading directly through its brokerage platform. Fidelity Digital Assets is also part of a group of institutions that support the launch of EDX Markets (EDXM), "a first-of-its-kind exchange that will meet the hidden demand for digital asset trading by enabling safe and compliant digital asset trading through trusted brokers." Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair keeps heading higher towards the nearest technical resistance located at $1,4017. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so ETH bulls are getting ready to follow the recent BTC rally. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,372, $1,358 and $1,345 and the technical resistance is located at $1,402 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295699
Residents Of Brazil Will Not Be Able To Use Cryptocurrencies As Legal Tender

Canada Cryptocurrency Adoption Report| In The Ethereum Market Downtrend May Be Extended

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.10.2022 11:00
Crypto Industry News: Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) chief executive Grant Vingoe said Canadian authorities planned to publish a report in October that will include data on cryptocurrency adoptions in Canada. Reportedly, over 30% of Canadians plan to buy cryptocurrencies in 2024, he adds. Grant Vingoe, CEO of the Ontario Securities Commission, echoed Canada's technology-neutral stance on cryptocurrencies, while saying that many Canadians plan to become HODLers in the near future. In an inaugural address to the Economic Club of Canada on October 6, Vingoe said the stock and bond regulatory base also applies to "cryptocurrency contracts" with "the vast majority of cryptocurrency-backed entities" falling under the jurisdiction of the OSC. "As securities regulators [we must work to ensure that] none of the characteristics of cryptocurrency assets or their underlying technology, neither positive nor negative, determine our regulatory approach. We are not here to pick winners and losers from our investments. We are cautiously and technology-neutral to all new products that come to our market, and we use the same reasoning to evaluate them. " Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair made a Shooting Star candlestick at the level of $1,348 and started a pull-back. The nearest intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,317 and the intraday technical resistance is located at the level of $1,358 and $1,372. The larger time frame target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. Nevertheless, the bears would have to break below the demand zone located between the levels of $1,255 - $1,281. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295860
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

Cryptocurrency Trading Volumes Will Remain Near The Lows

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.10.2022 13:09
The market capitalization of the cryptocurrency is actually stuck near the level of $955 billion. Even despite the increase in bullish signals, there are no significant changes in the price movement of the entire market. Why is the crypto market worth it? The main reason for the lack of significant price movement is the DXY index. The indicator peaked at 114, after which it began to decline. However, the corrective movement has not yet passed into the phase of a full-fledged downward trend. And this stops the growth of capitalization of high-risk assets. In 2022, most central banks launched an aggressive monetary policy aimed at fighting inflation by reducing the availability of money. Due to the decrease in financial opportunities, the level of interest in risky assets also falls. The main indicator of interest in high-risk assets is the DXY index. The indicator is gradually starting to decline, while the SPX has shown growth for three days in a row. In the short term, this may mean the emergence of a local bullish trend for major cryptocurrencies. ETH/USD Analysis The main altcoin continues to move within the framework of consolidation in the range of $1,200–$1,400. The cryptocurrency cannot go beyond the zone due to the downward trend line. As of October 7, ETH trading volumes are not enough for a full breakout. Technical metrics continue to point to the continuation of the flat price movement. RSI and stochastic are moving in the bullish zone but without hints of bullish signals. However, given the low trading volumes, if the price breaks out of the range, then this will be an impulsive movement. At the same time, Santiment analysts point to the active growth of new ETH wallets. Glassnode also noted that the number of ETH addresses with a balance of 1 Ether reached an absolute maximum of 1,580,000. This is a positive signal indicating a growing interest in the altcoin, and as a result, an increase in trading volumes. For the past two weeks, ETH has stood still without significant attempts to break out of the range. Given the approaching DXY correction, as well as the growing interest in Ethereum, we should expect the emergence of a local bullish trend. However, it is unlikely that the trading volumes needed to move up will appear over the weekend. BTC/USD Analysis The main news regarding BTC was the increasingly obvious uncorrelation with the S&P 500 stock index. Formally, assets retain the similarity of the dynamics of price movement. However, Bitcoin does not come close to implementing the upward jerks that SPX makes. This may indicate a worrying trend that the upcoming DXY correction will be a bullish leg for the stock market. Throughout the week, the US markets have been talking about the high potential of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Jones. As a result, BTC formally follows SPX, but most of the investment is concentrated in the stock market. If this fact is confirmed, then the potential for the likely upward movement of Bitcoin will be much less. Despite the disturbing news about the "relationship" between cryptocurrencies and stock indices, there are also positive signals. Glassnode analysts noted that more than 45% of all BTC have not moved for two years. This is an important signal indicating a high level of long-term investors, who are the main fuel for the fundamental value of the asset. In addition, CryptoQuant shed another ray of light on Bitcoin's commitment to the $20k level. Experts believe that the price of the cryptocurrency is at the level of the aggregate breakeven of institutional investors. This could be another reason for the strong support zone near $20k. Miners continue to be the main suppliers of BTC to crypto exchanges. One of the major American miners, Core Scientific, produced 1,213 in September, which is not 9% less than in August. At the same time, the company had to sell 1,576 BTC, which negatively affected the price of Bitcoin. Conclusions One by one, Fed officials have announced low chances for monetary easing in 2023. Powell has adjusted his inflation forecast for 2023, and now the acceptable figure is at the level of 3%. It's an admission that part of inflation is out of control. With this in mind, cryptocurrency trading volumes will remain near the lows. Therefore, the main stages of price growth will be the correction of the US dollar index. In the medium term, the forecast remains valid—cryptocurrencies will start to grow, and the first visible signals for this may appear next week.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323708
The EU Will Move Forward With The Implementation Of The Digital Euro

The Main Motivator For Issuing CBDC In India Is To Reduce The Operational Costs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.10.2022 11:31
Crypto Industry News: The Indian Reserve Bank listed the advantages and disadvantages of a digital e-rupee. He also provided more details about his CBDC in a 51-page note released on October 7. The Central Bank of India is working to increase awareness of CBDCs, which are developed by many central banks around the world, and to clearly define the goals as well as the potential positive and negative aspects of the digital rupee launch. The bank's document summarizes the key motivations for the issuance of the Indian CBDC project, emphasizing trust, security, liquidity, as well as the finality and integrity of the settlement as key elements of a sovereign digital currency. The main motivator for issuing CBDC in India is to reduce the operational costs of managing cash in the country. In addition to an increasingly resilient, efficient and innovative payment system, the bank also touts the improved financial integration that CBDC can guarantee. On top of that, the system of cross-border payments and settlements may be improved. However, the document also contains the bank's view that cryptocurrencies pose a significant risk to Indian consumers due to exchange rate volatility. "These digital assets undermine India's financial and macroeconomic stability due to their negative impact on the financial sector," it wrote. The central bank also highlighted its concerns that the continued spread of cryptocurrencies would diminish its ability to regulate monetary policy and the monetary system, which it sees as a threat to financial stability in India. The digital rupee has been touted as providing the same benefits as cryptocurrencies while "providing consumer protection" by avoiding what has been termed "harmful social and economic consequences." The note below presents the differences between retail and wholesale CBDCs, the former serving the public sector while the latter serving financial institutions. Authorities suggested that it might be appropriate to bring both forms to the Indian market. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair made a Shooting Star candlestick at the level of $1,348 and started a pull-back. The nearest intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,317 and the intraday technical resistance is located at the level of $1,358 and $1,372. The larger time frame target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. Nevertheless, the bears would have to break below the demand zone located between the levels of $1,255 - $1,281. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,369 WR2 - $1,346 WR1 - $1,333 Weekly Pivot - $1,322 WS1 - $1,309 WS2 - $1,299 WS3 - $1,275 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-11 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296076
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Digital Assets: Ethereum And BTC Correlation. Fidelity's ETH Index Fund

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 10.10.2022 15:56
BTC and ETH correlation dips. MakerDAO allocates US$500M to bonds. Fidelity launches Ethereum index fund. Chart of the Week: BTC and ETH Still the Perfect Pair? The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, had been moving very much in lockstep, with a correlation (rolling 90-day) of around 0.9 or above (1 would be a perfect correlation), for most of the year. However, since mid-July, the correlation dropped sharply, reaching a low of 0.6 in September. It has since started to crawl back upwards.   The Merge was an idiosyncratic factor specific to ETH back in September and intensifying risk-off sentiment brought about in large part by macro risks (e.g. interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions) might also have favoured BTC over ETH for some traders, causing the two to move less in lockstep. Our recent report Alpha Navigator (Sep 2022) provides a more in-depth analysis of macro trends and correlations between different crypto coins. Crypto Fund Flow Tracker The aggregated exchange balance for BTC dropped sharply over the past week, perhaps a sign of increasing investor inclination to hold. No significant movements were seen in OTC (over-the-counter) desks’ balance for BTC. OTC desks are typically used by larger investors. Crypto Derivatives Pulse Following ETH, the put-call ratio for BTC is also now at a yearly low, potentially implying less cautious sentiment. Additionally, implied volatilities (vols), another often used measure of risk, are at their lowest since June; 1-month implied vol currently stands at 59.3% (vs. 65.0% a week ago) and 73.0% (vs. 82.7% a week ago) for BTC and ETH, respectively.  Perpetual futures funding rates continue to print positive (longs pay shorts) for BTC, while ETH’s are close to neutral after streaking negative (shorts pay longs) for the past 2-months. Leveraged traders’ net-short position in CME Bitcoin futures appears to have reversed course and has been increasing recently.  Leveraged traders are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including commodity trading advisors and commodity pool operators. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading, and trading on behalf of speculative clients. The asset manager category consists of institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds, and those portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional. Crypto Price Movements     Crypto News Highlights MakerDAO, issuer of the stablecoin DAI, has allocated US$500M for investing in U.S. Treasury and corporate bonds, to diversify its reserves. The funds will come from its overcollateralised stablecoin, with 80% going to short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and 20% to investment-grade corporate bonds. Fidelity Investments is launching the Fidelity Ethereum Index Fund, which currently has US$5M in assets. The fund will track the Ethereum price, is available to accredited investors, and the minimum investment is US$50K. Marathon Digital, one of the largest stock-exchange listed Bitcoin miners by market cap, revealed an exposure of US$81.3M in the now-bankrupt Compute North, which was one of the biggest operators of crypto-mining data centres. Crypto asset management firm Grayscale is launching Grayscale Digital Infrastructure Opportunities (GDIO), a private co-investment product focused on Bitcoin mining hardware. GDIO will invest in mining equipment at what Grayscale expects to be discounted prices due to the crypto winter. The equipment will then be used to mine and sell Bitcoin, generating income for investors. BNB Chain, the blockchain of Binance, suspended all deposits and withdrawals after its cross-chain bridge was exploited. It is estimated that the attackers made off with US$100M worth of cryptocurrency.  Catalyst Calendar             Author Research and Insights Team Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Tags CRYPTO CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET Source: Market Pulse (10/10/2022) (crypto.com)
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

How Lower Ethereum Protocol Revenues Affects Ether Price (ETH/USD)?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 10.10.2022 19:53
According to Token Terminal data, Ethereum protocol revenues are down a whopping 86% in the third quarter, alongside the falling price of the token itself. Declining Ethereum network revenues At its peak last year, revenues generated in November were as high as $1.6 billion. However, the amounts have dropped significantly in previous months. They stood at $82.1, $65.6 and $52.4 million in July, June, and September this year respectively. These sums cannot be considered as revenue for Ethereum's founders and administrators, as there is no centralized company as such. Instead, these revenues were mainly due to the miners and validators of the network, who were de facto responsible for its operation. Will this have an impact on the price of ETH? Revenue from the Ethereum protocol comes primarily from fees charged by the ETH protocol (gas fees). These depend on the demand for Ethereum, which ultimately translates into the token price and fees. Therefore, a strong correlation between the ETH price and revenue is apparent. When the price of the coin fell this year, so did revenues.  Ethereum's protocol revenue may remain low for a long time because the move to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain has reduced the energy consumption and thus the cost, which for the other side of the transaction is the protocol revenue.  After merge, the token may no longer generate as much revenue as it once did through the current lack of cryptocurrency digging, which absorbed a large part of the cost. In theory, increased demand even with PoS blockchain could translate into increased commissions and network revenue, but it would have to require a gigantic influx of buyers. Ethereum Price, daily candles Source: Conotoxia MT5 Ethereum has been moving in a sideways trend for almost three weeks. Today at 16:00 GMT+3 ETH is losing around 0.3%. Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? CFDs allow you to open buy and sell positions, and thus invest when quotes rise as well as fall. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs on more than 5,000 financial instruments, including more than 140 CFDs on cryptocurrencies. Wanting to find a CFD on the cryptocurrency of your choice, all you need to do is follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art center for financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section. Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 or cTrader platform, search for the CFD cryptocurrency you are looking for and drag it to the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Read next: Elon Musk Is Getting Into Geopolitics| Russia And Another Attack| FXMAG.COM Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Look At Comments On Bitcoin Prices, Ethereum Market And If The CEO Of Polkadot Is Resigning

Over A Year Ago, El Salvador Decided To Accept Bitcoin As A Means Of Payment| The Situation On The Ethereum Market Remains Unchanged

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.10.2022 11:58
Crypto Industry News: It's been over a year since El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender. In late September, the country's president, Nayib Bukele, wrote an article in which he defends his decision regarding the cryptocurrency. According to the President of El Salvador, if his country's bitcoin experiment is successful, many other countries around the world will go in the same direction and start accepting BTC. In an article titled "Stop Drinking the Elite's Kool-Aid", which was published on September 30, 2022 in English and Spanish, Bukele criticized his critics who continue to attack him for his pro-bitcoin policy. . "The most vocal critics are those who fear and pressure us to change our policies, they are the powerful elites of the world and the people who work for them or benefit from them," Bukele explained in his article. "They used to have everything and in a way still have their hands on the media, banks, NGOs, international organizations and almost all governments and corporations in the world," he adds. Bukele also denies reports by "Bloomberg, Forbes, Fortune, Financial Times, Deutsche Welle, BBC, Al Jazeery, The Guardiana, The New York Times, and The Washington Post" claim that "the country's economy has been devastated by a loss of $ 50 million. dollars "that El Salvador has incurred as a result of investing in BTC. The president adds that his country has lost nothing because it has not sold a single bitcoin. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen penetrating the demand zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,255. The larger time frame target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical resistance is seen at $1,305. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,369 WR2 - $1,346 WR1 - $1,333 Weekly Pivot - $1,322 WS1 - $1,309 WS2 - $1,299 WS3 - $1,275 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296278
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

Trailers For An Upward Move Have Appeared On The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.10.2022 12:56
The cryptocurrency market and Ethereum continue to move within a narrow range of fluctuations. The main altcoin attempts to leave the area of movement, but rests on a strong area of resistance and fundamental factors. The main altcoin remains dependent on Bitcoin, and, accordingly, on the state of stock indices and Fed policy. Given that the state of the main cryptocurrency leaves much to be desired, Ethereum is moving within a narrow range. Any bullish attempt to exit the corridor ends in failure due to BTC pressure. Markets expect the key rate to rise to 4.5% by early 2023. This means that in the medium term, the growth of Ethereum will be possible with a correction in the US dollar index and a parallel bullish trend in Bitcoin. In the short term, the probability of going beyond the current range of $1,200–$1,400 is unlikely. Ethereum on-chain activity Ethereum network indicators show bullish signals, which is usually a harbinger of an upward movement. Santiment notes a sharp increase in the number of unique addresses in the altcoin network. This may indicate a growing interest in ETH and a likely increase in trading volumes. However, after peaking in mid-September, Ethereum trading volumes continue to fall. This is a negative signal indicating low purchasing power and lack of interest in the asset. Also, low volumes indicate a divergence between trading volumes and the number of unique addresses. This means that an increase in the number of addresses does not provoke an increase in trading activity and, as a result, does not entail an increase in the price. The trading volume metric will likely start to catch up with the growing number of addresses on the ETH network. However, as of October 11, the surge in new addresses does not lead to an increase in trading activity and an increase in ETH/USD quotes. The Net Realized Profit/Loss on-chain metric also indicates low trading activity and a lull in most addresses. On the one hand, this confirms the fact that the growth in the number of unique addresses did not drastically affect the state of ETH. On the other hand, NRPL says that most of the investors have shifted to long-term ownership. ETH/USD technical analysis As of October 11, Ethereum is trading near the $1,300 level. The asset has fallen in price by 5% over the past seven days and continues to move in a narrow range of $1,200–$1,400. As we have already understood, the current volumes of the altcoin will not be enough to independently exit the price fluctuation corridor. Technical metrics confirm the absence of prerequisites for the emergence of impulses. The RSI and the stochastic oscillator are moving flat with no signals for a bullish momentum. The MACD indicator is also moving flat below zero, which indicates that there are no prerequisites for growth in the medium term. ETH/USD will likely continue to fluctuate within the specified range. There are no obvious prerequisites for the formation of an important figure in technical analysis. The coin is still unable to break through the downward trend line, and therefore, when planning active trading actions in relation to ETH, it is important to look first of all at BTC, SPX, and DXY. Moreover, the presence of certain signals on the charts of other financial instruments does not guarantee price movement. In the current stage of the market, trading volumes play a decisive role when trying to leave a range or realize a bullish momentum. Given the minimum volumes of ETH with a growing number of addresses, there is no reason to expect a significant increase (out of range) this week.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323969
Now The Ethereum Market Is On The Monthly Highs Trying

The Ethereum's Transition To The Proof-Of-Stake Mechanism Is Rated Negatively

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.10.2022 10:47
Crypto Industry News: Ethereum's transition to the proof-of-stake mechanism has opened blockchain to criticism from crypto fans. Many believe that because of this, Ethereum has become more centralized and the risk of censorship has increased. So is Ethereum (ETH) really more centralized and prone to censorship now? Noah Buxton, head of blockchain services at Armanino, answered this question to the online media: "It seems to me, and I can see it also from our clients, that when choosing a blockchain and where we launch a project or where we will create an NFT, the most important thing is the cost of the operation and the current share of blockchain in a given market and retail sales. The decentralization of a given network is a secondary, if not forgotten factor in the decision-making process " First of all, customers want low fees for sending and transactions, as well as be sure that a given blockchain has a lot of users. Therefore, the most important thing is the service price (to be as low as possible) and the size of the market (to be as large as possible). Ethereum, on the other hand, has actually become more centralized after switching to proof-of-stake. Blockchain now relies on validators, not miners, to add new transactions to the network. Validators decide which transactions go to each block and in what order. Electricity consumption has dropped by 99.99% after switching to staking, but hardly anyone realizes that much of the ETH that secures the grid is now in centralized entities. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen bouncing again from the demand zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,255 after the level of $1,267 was hit. The larger time frame target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical resistance is seen at $1,305 and $1,326 (30 MA). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,369 WR2 - $1,346 WR1 - $1,333 Weekly Pivot - $1,322 WS1 - $1,309 WS2 - $1,299 WS3 - $1,275 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296471
Age Is The Dominant Factor In Cryptocurrency Investing

Binance Academy: Ethereum Merge - Important Facts, Pros And Cons

Binance Academy Binance Academy 12.10.2022 14:42
TL;DR Ethereum’s Merge is part of a transition Ethereum from a Proof of Work blockchain to a Proof of Stake. In general, Proof of Stake offers numerous benefits to scalability and sustainability.  As Ethereum moves to its new sharded structure, the original mainnet’s state will be transferred. This means that ETH holders won’t need to do anything with their coins and should be wary of scammers telling them they need to “transfer” their tokens.    Introduction Ethereum’s long-anticipated move to a Proof of Stake consensus mechanism has, for many HODLers, raised an important question: What do I need to do with my ETH? The question is a good one, as the safety of your funds can be at risk if you don’t fully understand the situation. First, let’s look at the reasons behind Ethereum’s move to Proof of Stake (PoS). Read more on Binance.com  What is Ethereum’s move to Proof of Stake? Since Ethereum’s (ETH) creation, it’s used the same system as Bitcoin (BTC) to generate consensus on new blocks of transactions: Proof of Work (PoW). This consensus mechanism allows miners to reach an agreement without a central authority, even in the face of malicious actors working against them.  Proof of Work, as implemented by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin network, created an effective, reliable method for achieving consensus on decentralized networks. To this day, the Bitcoin network still hasn’t been successfully attacked. However, PoW has fallen out of favor with some developers and users. It is often seen as: Energy inefficient. PoW disincentivizes bad actors making large-scale attacks by making it costly in terms of energy. While this is one way of securing the network, staking is now seen as a more sustainable alternative. Inefficient for smart contracts. Using smart contracts can require a large number of network interactions. These have to be added to a block and confirmed to the network. PoW often experiences longer block times and higher transaction fees, making interacting with smart contracts often slower and more expensive. Difficult to independently mine. Becoming a miner on a popular PoW system can be challenging for an individual as the mining landscape is often dominated by a few large mining pools. This may lead to a centralization of mining power, making it hard for individual miners or smaller pools to compete. Difficult to scale. As the network becomes more popular, the number of pending transactions increases. PoW networks will have a limited block size that can only include so many transactions. Periods of high traffic can leave users waiting for hours and even days for their transaction to be added to a block and processed. With Ethereum 2.0, the network will move to PoS and remove the need for mining coins. The goal is to improve Ethereum’s scalability, as well as create additional benefits for users.   Why Proof of Stake? Proof of Stake has proven to be the most popular choice for new blockchain networks. It has several discernible advantages and leads the way in accessibility and scalability. Its drawbacks, while there are a few, are in most eyes minimal compared to the benefits gained.     Benefits Drawbacks An average PoS network user can take part in the validation process with just the network’s native token. Power can still be centralized around large token holders.  Less energy intensive.  Damages a profitable mining industry. Quicker transaction times and finalization. To some critics, PoS is less secure than using cryptographic puzzles to generate consensus.   The road to PoS Ethereum  Moving to PoS can’t be done in one go. Over a few years, Ethereum began a transition to move to its new sharded structure successfully. The journey can be split into a series of phases. Note that the Phase structure is no longer officially used by Ethereum, but is often referred to in this way by other media outlets. The Beacon Chain launch (Phase 0) Phase 0 will see the launch of Ethereum’s Beacon Chain, a PoS blockchain that will manage all Ethereum shards. More specifically, it will organize validators and the staking process, create validator committees, manage consensus generation, and run other key operations. Introduction of sharding (Phase 1) Phase 1 will take the single Ethereum blockchain and split it into 64 sharded blockchains. These blockchains will then be managed by the Beacon Chain launched in Phase 0. However, over time, Ethereum has instead concentrated on the Merge, which now will happen before sharding implementation. The Merge (Phase 1.5) Phase 1.5, also known as The Merge, will bridge the state of the Ethereum mainnet to the new Proof of Stake system. Smart contracts from the old Ethereum mainnet will be available on the new Ethereum network, and the Beacon Chain will be the official organizer of block production. Phase 2 Phase 2 will let shards create new transactions and smart contracts, meaning they’re fully functional. Phase 2 is the last phase with a predefined plan, as Phase 3 will be used to iron out any issues occurring from the launch of Ethereum 2.0   What will happen to my ETH? In short, your funds will be safe, and you won’t need to do anything. The complete Ethereum state will be transferred over to Ethereum 2.0. If you’re holding BETH because you’ve locked ETH in Binance’s Ethereum 2.0 staking product, you’ll soon be able to redeem it for ETH after the Merge. Vitalik has mentioned that the unlocking will take place roughly six months after the Merge. BETH is a wrapped token pegged 1:1 with ETH, distributed to users who locked their ETH with Binance. This gave stakers a liquid, ETH-like asset to use while their funds were locked. For users who wish to, they will be able to swap their BETH back to ETH.   Expectations from users and the community For many, Ethereum’s move to PoS has been eagerly anticipated. With almost every new blockchain now using PoS, there has been immense pressure on Ethereum to catch up. The network is also free from its previous limitations with the benefits of its new consensus mechanism. As PoS is more environmentally friendly, Ethereum will also remove the stigma associated with its previous energy usage. Overall, this may help improve the image of the blockchain world in general.     Closing thoughts The key message to take away from The Merge for HODLers is that you don’t need to do anything with your ETH holdings. So, be wary of anyone telling you that you need to “transfer” or “bridge” your ETH to the new network. Aside from this important fact, Ethereum’s move to Proof of Stake looks to have various benefits for users.
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

JP Morgan And Visa Partnership | The Ethereum Market Unchanged

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.10.2022 10:10
Crypto Industry News: Two giants in the traditional world of finance and payments, JPMorgan and Visa, have announced a new partnership that will focus on improving cross-border payments by leveraging their private Liink and B2B Connect blockchain networks. Liink is a network created by JPMorgan that has been designed specifically for cross-border transfers. It is offered as part of the Onyx bank's blockchain and payments initiative, which provides institutions with a platform to validate transactions and share financial information. B2B Connect was created by Visa to serve as a cross-border payment product for financial institutions and corporate clients. B2B Connect is also integrated with Onyx's Confirm, which is an account information verification product that verifies that the information provided by users is correct and valid. According to Onyx, Confirm is able to verify over 2 billion bank accounts from 3,500 financial institutions. The main goal of the platform is to help reduce unsuccessful payments that are costing the global economy $ 188 billion a year. It is estimated that 66% of failed payments are the result of incorrect account information. B2B Connect has integrated with Confirm to assist with the account verification process. This company was launched in a pilot mode by JPMorgan in 2021. The company recently registered Deutsche Bank as a product founder member in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen bouncing again from the demand zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,255, however this bounce was terminated just under the 30 periods moving average. The larger time frame target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical resistance is seen at $1,305 and $1,326 (30 MA). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,369 WR2 - $1,346 WR1 - $1,333 Weekly Pivot - $1,322 WS1 - $1,309 WS2 - $1,299 WS3 - $1,275 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296662
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Ether Price (ETH/USD) May Decrease According To FieryTrading

Fierytrading Analysis Fierytrading Analysis 13.10.2022 16:40
// 🔥 Ethereum Falls After Bad CPI: More Selling Ahead by FieryTrading on TradingView.com Trend Analysis Technical Indicators Chart Patterns   Yesterday I made a short-term analysis on ETH and the fact it was trading in a bearish triangle pattern . Both targets have been hit, congratulations if you took the trade. In this analysis, I want to zoom out a bit. Now that we're trading below the September lows, supported by terrible macro news, I think the bearish trend will continue for a while. I think that we're going to revisit the capitulation lows of last summer at the very least. Potentially even lower, but we'll see by then. 💰Lower Your Trading Fees: https://taplink.cc/fierytrading📈Try my Premium Signals for 🚨FREE🚨: https://t.me/FT_Futures_free🔥Premium channel & 💎Contact: http://www.fierytrading.com🎯Crypto Signals & EXCLUSIVE analyses: https://t.me/FieryTradingChannel Website Source: 🔥 Ethereum Falls After Bad CPI: More Selling Ahead for KRAKEN:ETHUSD by FieryTrading — TradingView
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Is More Likely To See A Pull Back

The Portuguese Plan For Taxing Cryptocurrencies | Will The Downward Movement In The Ethereum Market Extend?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.10.2022 11:42
Crypto Industry News: The Portuguese authorities recently announced plans to introduce a 28% tax on cryptocurrencies from the beginning of 2023. The published (in Portuguese) report revealed that the group of government representatives led by the minister of finance really strongly wants 2022 to be the last year in which cryptocurrencies are tax free. Everything points to the end of the Portuguese tax haven for crypto enthusiasts. Pursuant to the provisions of the proposed act, 28% of the tax is to be applied to all digital assets that have been purchased and stored for a period of less than one year. What's more, lawmakers are also pushing to tax all "free cryptocurrency transactions", i.e. primarily crypto received under airdrops - here the tax would be 10%. Conversely, all assets held for more than one year will still retain their status and will not be subject to the new tax. The drafters' plan also provides for 4% taxation of fees charged by brokers. According to the application, any profits resulting from the sale or mining of cryptocurrencies will be considered income and will be subject to the new tax. When tracing the history of such government movements, expect an exodus of cryptocurrency companies outside Portugal - especially mining companies. Already, many people are also wondering whether government interference in the current state of affairs will not be counterproductive and will cause cryptocurrency holders and companies from the industry to flee abroad. Then, not only will they not pay a penny of tax, but they will also stop spending their cryptocurrencies and support the Portuguese economy. It is worth noting that this is not the first time that some Portuguese parliamentarians want to tax digital assets. The last such attempt took place in May 2022 - the idea, however, failed the vote of confidence and was rejected. But observers say this time is different - Portugal is said to be desperate to save falling GDP and a shrinking economy, and terrified by the specter of recession, it may resort to new taxes. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had made a new swing low at the level of $1,191 and ten reversed aggressively back above the demand zone and the middle of the old trading range. The local high was made at the level of $1,341 (at the time of writing the article), but with the strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart, the outlook remains bullish and a target for bulls is seen at $1,358 and $1,372. The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,369 WR2 - $1,346 WR1 - $1,333 Weekly Pivot - $1,322 WS1 - $1,309 WS2 - $1,299 WS3 - $1,275 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296827
WOOFi DEX Facilitates Spot Trading Of Popular Blue-Chip Assets (BTC,ETH)

WOOFi DEX Facilitates Spot Trading Of Popular Blue-Chip Assets (BTC,ETH)

Binance Academy Binance Academy 14.10.2022 12:15
TL;DR   WOOFi is an all-in-one decentralized application (DApp) built by WOO Network. The main goal of WOOFi is to enhance users’ experience with decentralized finance (DeFi) by providing reduced slippage, competitive swap fees, and other useful features. WOOFi users can swap popular digital assets and access income-earning opportunities like staking and providing liquidity to the network. One of the platform’s main value propositions for DeFi users is deep liquidity. Introduction Since 2020, decentralized exchanges (DEXes) have experienced rapid growth. In August 2022 alone, the monthly DEX total trading volume exceeded $66 billion. To meet the ever-growing demand for low-fee on-chain trading, WOO Network launched WOOFi in October 2021 and WOOFi DEX in June 2022. Together, WOOFi and WOOFi DEX offer a suite of tools from those enabling simple swaps all the way to professional trading interfaces. Learn more on Binance.com How does WOOFi work? WOOFi’s product offerings are designed to help DeFi users access competitive prices, low fees, tight bid-ask spreads, as well as a variety of yield-generating opportunities. The platform offers three main use cases: Swapping  By paying a minimal 0.025% fee with WOOFi Swap, users can swap popular, financially-sound, blue-chip assets within or across chains supported by WOOFi. Earning Anyone can deposit digital assets to earn competitive APYs through WOOFi’s single-sided staking solution, Supercharger Vaults. Single-sided staking requires users to stake only one type of token. This model incentivizes asset holders to provide liquidity to WOOFi, in turn enabling WOOFi to offer better liquidity to traders. Staking Token holders can stake their WOO tokens on the WOOFi platform to earn revenue from WOOFi’s minimal 0.025% swap fee. WOOFi Swap Unlike other DApps, WOOFi simulates the deep liquidity from WOO Network’s centralized exchange, WOO X, meaning users can enjoy DeFi services with more affordable, CeFi-grade prices. Other advantages of using this model include reduced slippage and increased resistance to sandwich attacks. Slippage refers to the difference between the asset’s market price and its actual price upon order execution. It is more likely to get wider when market conditions are volatile or when trading with low-liquidity assets, causing traders to buy or sell their assets for more or less than expected. WOOFi DEX Launched in June 2022, WOOFi DEX is WOO Network’s decentralized exchange powered by Orderly Network. The platform was designed to bring high liquidity, advanced trading tools, a customizable user interface (UI), and a transparent order book to NEAR protocol. WOOFi DEX helps connect traders with a platform that offers faster execution and lower fees, in addition to allowing traders to maintain custody of their assets.  WOOFi DEX facilitates spot trading of popular blue-chip assets like BTC, ETH, and NEAR. In the future, the platform is expected to expand its services and implement functionalities like margin trading, perpetual swaps, lending, and even borrowing. Bootstrapped by leading market makers like Kronos Research, AGBuild, and Ledger Prime, WOOFi DEX is positioned to deliver an improved DeFi trading experience that has the look and feel of a centralized exchange.  WOOFi Supercharger vaults WOOFi enables users to deposit a single token and earn competitive yields while maintaining complete exposure to their favorite assets. Up to 90% of the assets in the Supercharger vault can be borrowed by WOOFi’s liquidity provider at a fixed rate to provide liquidity to WOOFi. The remaining assets are deployed to third-party DeFi protocols for external yield farming. By hedging on WOO Network’s centralized exchange, WOO X, and therefore remaining market-neutral, WOOFi’s liquidity providers can ensure that there are always sufficient funds for users to withdraw upon request. This dual strategy enables depositors to directly benefit from two separate sources of revenue while providing liquidity to WOOFi. Users can request to withdraw their deposited assets with no fee or limit (except when the vault is under settlement) once the 7-day settlement cycle is complete. Ten percent of each Supercharger vault’s Total Value Locked (TVL) will be set aside each week for instant withdrawals, though a 0.3% withdrawal fee will be charged to prevent abuse of this system. What makes WOOFi unique? sPMM liquidity model Instead of adopting an automated market maker (AMM) model like most other DEXes, WOOFi leverages an innovative synthetic proactive market making (sPMM) approach to achieve deeper liquidity. The sPMM model aims to simulate the deep liquidity from WOO Network’s centralized exchange, WOO X, allowing the WOOFi Swap to offer lower slippage and competitive DeFi prices while staying decentralized. Protection against sandwich attacks A sandwich attack occurs when a malicious trader places one order before and one after a pending transaction on a DeFi protocol to manipulate asset prices. An exploiter thus pushes an asset price up by placing a bid at a higher price than a victim’s pending bid price. When the victim buys at the higher price, the attacker can sell their asset at the new, artificially inflated price.  Sandwich attacks are common among large traders who swap assets with AMM-based DEXes. Since AMM price discovery is driven by the token balances in the liquidity pool, attackers can take advantage of this transparency to inflate prices. In contrast, WOOFi’s sPMM price discovery is determined by the parameters of on-chain price feeds instead of pool liquidity. Bad actors will not be able to predict prices based on token balances. The DEX that pays for order flow Currently, WOOFi has a broker program in place, where it pays 0.5 basis points (bps) on the volume sent by third-party DApps as a rebate.  What is WOO?   WOO is the native token used by WOOFi and the larger suite of WOO products. It provides staking rewards, fee discounts, and governance rights across the WOO Network ecosystem.  How to buy WOO on Binance?   You can buy WOO on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Trade] -> [Spot].  2. Type “WOO” on the search bar to see the available trading pairs. We will use WOO/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of WOO you want to buy. In this example, we will use a Market order. Click [Buy WOO] to confirm your order, and the purchased WOO will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts   The unique liquidity model that WOOFi uses was designed to mimic a traditional exchange’s order book to offer key benefits like deeper liquidity, more competitive prices, and overall a better DeFi trading experience. Those looking for reduced slippage can check out WOOFi and the larger WOO ecosystem for more information.
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Tether Take Action To Eliminate Commercial Papers From Its Reserves

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2022 09:44
Crypto Industry News: Tether, the company responsible for issuing the largest stablecoin in terms of USDT market capitalization, announced that it has completely eliminated commercial papers from its reserves, a long-sought target in its first attempts to strengthen treasury reserves. "The communique is part of Tether's continued efforts to increase transparency, with investor protection at the heart of Tethers' reserve management," reads the Tether announcement. CTO of Tether, Paolo Ardoino, was quoted earlier this year saying the company intends to reduce its exposure to commercial papers by the end of 2022. Achieving this required the elimination of over $ 30 billion in commercial assets, which Tether said were achieved "without any loss", which the stablecoin provider says is "evidence of how Tethers reserves are conservatively and professionally managed". Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had made a new local low at the level of $1,267 in the form of a Pin Bar and ten reversed aggressively back towards the middle of the trading range. The local high was made at the level of $1,314 (at the time of writing the article), but with the strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart, the outlook remains bullish and a target for bulls is seen at $1,358 and $1,372. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (market orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,333 WR2 - $1,318 WR1 - $1,311 Weekly Pivot - $1,302 WS1 - $1,295 WS2 - $1,286 WS3 - $1,270 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297024
Bitcoin is trying to resume its upward movement

Wow! MetaMask To Allow Customers From The US To Buy Cryptocurrencies Easier

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.10.2022 09:07
Follow us on Google News Price of Bitcoin decreased, so did ETH/USD Bitcoin declined 0.8% over the past week, ending near $19,300. The start of the new week brought no significant changes in price. Aside from big market moves on Thursday and Friday, the exchange rate remains chained to the current price. Ethereum lost 0.9% to $1310. Other top altcoins in the top 10 fell in price from 1.8% (BNB) to 12.5% (Cardano). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 2% over the week to $925 billion. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was down to 20 by Monday versus 22 a week earlier and 24 a day earlier and remains in a state of "extreme fear. Despite the negative external backdrop, BTC has successfully attempted to hold its September lows against much more worrisome sentiment in the stock markets. We view the idea of cryptocurrencies as safe-haven assets as untenable and see this stability in the prices of major cryptocurrencies as a manifestation of solid internal demand for risk. DBS Bank of Singapore points advantage of the leading cryptocurrency Despite high price volatility, DBS Bank of Singapore called Bitcoin an effective tool for clearing transactions. The BTC market operates 24/7, so investors can get money and liquidity when needed. Cryptocurrency wallet MetaMask will launch a new option allowing U.S. customers to buy cryptocurrency directly from their bank accounts. China has floated the idea of a pan-Asian digital currency to reduce the dependence of the region's economies on the U.S. dollar. Tether completely removed the shares of commercial companies used to back USDT Stablecoin. Meanwhile, digital asset management company CoinShares unveiled a new experimental solution to determine the fair market value of non-transferable tokens (NFT) based on artificial intelligence.
Age Is The Dominant Factor In Cryptocurrency Investing

Cryptocurrency Market: Ethereum (ETH/USD) Price Analysis - 17/10/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2022 15:41
In this article: Ethereum price Read next: JP Morgan Net Income Over $9B | Kanye West Is Buying Parler| FXMAG.COM Red lines- bearish channel green lines- trading range Ethereum is trading around $1,314. Price continues to respect on a daily closing basis the key horizontal support of $1,270. Price continues to move sideways since mid September inside the trading range of $1,270-$1,400. Ethereum remains vulnerable to the downside since it still inside the red downward sloping channel. The market has remained stable over the last few weeks with no clear direction. Traders better remain patient and wait for a break below $1,270 or above $1,400 in order to act. Aggressive traders will look to buy near key support of $1,270 and sell near resistance of $1,400. Relevance up to 14:00 2022-10-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297103
Age Is The Dominant Factor In Cryptocurrency Investing

Age Is The Dominant Factor In Cryptocurrency Investing

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.10.2022 09:39
Crypto Industry News: Bank of America found that rich young Americans are 7.5 times more likely to have cryptocurrencies in their wallets than investors 43 and older. "If the youngest cohort is unsure of the stock market, where does it see opportunities for investment growth? Alternatives, including cryptocurrencies, are their # 1 choice, "wrote the bank. Bank of America released this week's study of wealthy Americans' investment preferences. The report was prepared on the basis of an Internet survey conducted in the period from May to June, among 1,052 people over the age of 21 with assets allocated for investments worth over USD 3 million. What were the results obtained? As it turned out, "the age group 21 to 42 has only a quarter of their equity portfolio, compared with 55% for investors aged 43 and over." "While 29% of younger people say cryptocurrencies are the leading wealth-generating opportunity, only 7% of the older group agreed," he added. Bank of America stressed that age is "the dominant factor when it comes to interest in cryptocurrencies," explaining: "While the overall use of [cryptocurrencies] is low, younger people are 7.5 times more likely to hold cryptocurrencies in their wallets and five times more likely to say that they understand them quite well." Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen trading just below the last week high located at $1,344. The local high was made at the level of $1,342 (at the time of writing the article), but with the strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart, the outlook remains bullish and a target for bulls is seen at $1,358 and $1,372. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (marked orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,333 WR2 - $1,318 WR1 - $1,311 Weekly Pivot - $1,302 WS1 - $1,295 WS2 - $1,286 WS3 - $1,270 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 06:00 2022-10-19 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297196
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

The Ethereum's Upward Movement Depends On Signals On BTC And S&P 500

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.10.2022 11:49
Ethereum continues to fluctuate within the narrow range of $1,150–$1,400 for exactly a month. The main altcoin made attempts to go beyond the range, but low trading volumes did not allow the asset to realize impulses. Despite this, the situation is changing for the better in the short term. Ethereum managed to successfully gain a foothold above $1,300, which opens up the possibility of an upward movement to $1,500 and $1,600 for the altcoin. However, for the final resumption of growth, the asset needs to gain a foothold above $ 1,340. After the formation of the second bullish candle in a row on the daily timeframe, the asset takes a pause. The RSI index and the stochastic oscillator remain in the bullish zone, but are turning sideways. The MACD is also moving flat, which indicates the absence of strong bullish momentum. Therefore, the current increase in ETH should be considered in the short term. Ethereum on-chain activity The main on-chain indicators of Ethereum are at below average levels. However, there is a tendency to increase trading volumes and the activity of unique addresses in parallel with the upward movement of the asset price. This is a positive signal indicating the probability of the continuation of the upward trend of the cryptocurrency. Analysis of BTC, SPX, and DXY A full-fledged upward movement of Ethereum is impossible without positive signals on BTC and S&P 500. On the daily chart, we see a similar upward movement of the stock index and Bitcoin. Thanks to this, the entire crypto market took a small step upward and the market capitalization grew by 1.5%. At the same time, the US dollar index has moved to a phase of local decline, which gives the stock market and Bitcoin additional fuel for growth. Given this, high-risk assets will continue to grow as the DXY index corrects. However, the current state of the global economy and the Fed's policies lead to the conclusion that the current upward movement in assets is short-term. Crypto Market and ETH News After the Merge update, Ethereum lost about 20% of its market capitalization, which led to the leveling of some of the new features of the altcoin. For example, ETH stopped being deflationary after a massive drop in trading activity on the cryptocurrency network. Ethereum also has problems with censorship, as about 50% of validators can block transactions in accordance with US sanctions. The volatility of the cryptocurrency market has fallen to a minimum, which indicates a significant decrease in investment interest. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching the 2018 cycle low. The asset has been at the bottom of 886 since the halving. In 2018, the duration of being at the bottom was 891 days. Given the propensity of bear markets to lengthen, we expect to be within the current ranges for at least a month. 98% of leaders of large companies expect a recession in the US economy in the next 12–18 months. It is these terms that should be used when analyzing the likelihood of a radical change in the situation in the crypto market and in the global economy. Conclusions Ethereum made a successful but insignificant maneuver in the overall price dynamics. Altcoin can reach the $1,500–$1,600 level if on-chain activity continues to grow with the price. However, this will not fundamentally change the situation on the market. This is a great opportunity for active traders, but the only thing left in the long-term strategy is to buy and accumulate.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-10-19 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324590
Commotion Around Ethereum. "Most Favorable Crypto Economies" - Germany, Switzerland And Australia

Commotion Around Ethereum. "Most Favorable Crypto Economies" - Germany, Switzerland And Australia

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 18.10.2022 22:58
Table of Contents Crypto Market Overview Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers News Highlights This Week Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart   The crypto market remains fairly stagnant to slightly positive in the past week, with most top100 coins staying within the single-digit profit/loss mark. The slightly positive outlook came as a response to a positive start of the week for the US equities market, which managed to jump up 2-3% week-over-week.   The overall cryptocurrency market volume in the past 24 hours came up to $50.23 billion - just $30 million less than the previous week. The overall crypto market cap has remained above the $900 billion mark, now totaling $935.89. This ended up being an overall decrease of about $40 billion compared to the previous week.   Let's delve deeper and take a quick look at the latest crypto market news and BTC's technical outlook.   Crypto Market Overview Bitcoin's drop below the $20,000 mark is still proving to be a tough pill to swallow, as the slow market can’t seem to approach this price level with enough confidence. BTC’s dominance is solidifying near the 40% mark, now standing at just over 39%. The most valuable cryptocurrency pair, BTC/USDT, is currently trading at $19,582.28, while Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has increased to $1,326.73, up 2.69% in the last week.   The top performers from the previous week were Huobi Token (HT), Casper (CSPR), and Quant (QNT. HT has increased by 46.70%, while CSPR gained 36.48% in the past seven days. Finally, QNT gained 32.09%.     Cryptocurrency Market Heatmap | Source: Coin360   On the other hand, TerraClassicUSD (USTC), Klaytn (KLAY), and ApeCoin (APE) were the worst performers of the week. USTC is down 32.92%; KLAY is down 18.69% in the last seven days; APE is down 13.67%.   Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers Top Altcoin Gainers: Huobi Token (HT) ➠ 42.70% Casper (CSPR) ➠ 36.48% Quant (QNT) ➠ 32.09% Top Altcoin Losers: TerraClassicUSD (USTC) ➠ 32.92% Klaytn (KLAY) ➠ 18.69% ApeCoin (APE) ➠ 13.67% News Highlights Here are some of the events that made the previous week's crypto news section stand out:   Ethereum Community Debates Over OFAC Compliance Ethereum validators have come to the public’s eye after a report has shown that over 51% of Ethereum blocks are now complying with the US TornadoCash sanctions after transitioning to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus algorithm.   Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin expressed his belief that solo validators can choose what they do and don’t comply with, and that this behavior should be tolerated.   Vitalik Buterin made the comment in reply to a Twitter poll, discussing a hypothetical scenario whereby a validator censors a transaction just because it may not align with their beliefs.   Adding to that, Ethereum bulls have stated that “not even a single” transaction has been censored on the network. Cyber Capital founder and CIO Justin Bons argued that not a single transaction on Ethereum has been stopped as a result of Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions. In fact, all non-compliant transactions have been processed in around 30 seconds as well, he stated.   KuCoin Exchange Expands its 0-fee Campaign KuCoin Exchange has announced the extension of its 0-fee BTC & ETH trading event. This means that, until Nov 02, 2022, traders can trade their favorite ETH and BTC pairs with no fees whatsoever.   Updated Event Duration: 10/19/2022 10:00 — 11/02/2022 10:00 (UTC)   As a result of its user-focused business approach, and boosted by incentives such as this promotion, KuCoin Exchange has briefly climbed to the spot of the second-largest spot exchange in the world.   European Union Commissioner Pushes for Faster Crypto Regulation The European Union has been processing and passing its landmark crypto framework for quite some time now. However, according to the European Commission’s financial services commissioner Mairead McGuinness, global crypto regulation needs to happen faster.   The remarks were made during McGuinness’s visit to Washington DC, where the commissioner stated that the regulatory efforts should take a global character and that she wants to see the regulation happen in other countries as well.   Germany Becomes the Most Favorable Crypto Economy Germany has managed to become the world’s most favorable economy for crypto in Q2 2022, according to a Coincub report. The United States, on the other hand, lost the first place and is now stationed as the seventh-most favorable.   The list also includes Switzerland at 2nd place, Australia at 3rd, UAE at 4th, Singapore at 5th, and Malaysia at 6th.   The crypto economy rankings took at look at numerous factors, including a favorable crypto outlook, clear digital asset tax rules, and more transparent regulatory communications.   The Fear & Greed Index at 22, Market Sentiment Bearish The fear and greed index has stabilized near the previous week’s levels after a huge drop from three weeks ago, when the number that represents crypto sentiment dropped from 45 to 24. The indicator now indicates “extreme fear” with a mark of 22, caused by the sudden drop of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.     Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative   Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week ➺ 18/10/2022 - AVAX - Avalanche Banff (V1.9.0) ➺ 20/10/2022 - ZIL - YouTube & Twitter AMA ➺ 21/10/2022 - LTC - Litecoin Summit 2022 ➺ 23/10/2022 - AVAX - Avalanche Creates   Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has been trading sideways for the past week, with its price ranging from $18,121 to $19,952. Unfortunately, BTC bulls haven’t been able to break the $20,000 barrier, which has proven to be a strong resistance level.   At the moment, Bitcoin is trading under the 50-day moving average (MA), which sits at the $19,672 level. If it manages to break the moving average level, this line could prove as a strong support point. However, BTC’s upside is still bound by a strong resistance zone between $20,000 and $20,500.   On the other hand, some analysts are showing that the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has been creating a triangle formation since its Sep 13 drop and that its push toward the upside indicates a slight positive sentiment.     BTC/USDT Chart on the Daily Timeframe | Source: KuCoin   When it comes to support and resistance levels, Bitcoin is likely to encounter resistance to the upside at an area between $20,000 and $20,500. On the other side, analysts state that traders should watch out for $18,135, as this is the only level separating Bitcoin from the $17,550 level.   Did you know that KuCoin offers premium TradingView charts to all its clients? With this, you can step up your Bitcoin technical analysis and easily identify various crypto chart patterns.     Sign up on KuCoin, and start trading today!   Follow us on Twitter >>> https://twitter.com/kucoincom   Join us on Telegram >>> https://t.me/Kucoin_Exchange   Download KuCoin App >>> https://www.kucoin.com/download   Also, Subscribe to our Youtube Channel >>>Listen to 60s Podcast Source: KuCoin
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Making Lower Highs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.10.2022 12:28
Crypto Industry News: In March 2021, Jack Dorsey's historic first tweet was sold for $ 2.9 million. Today it is only worth $ 132. This shows a certain negative phenomenon: during a bull market, investors are able to pay for certain assets completely detached from the realities of the price. In the spring of 2021, Dorsey put his first tweet up for auction. It was significant that the post represented the NFT. It was almost the middle of the bull market on the token market. As a result, the founder of Twitter received as much as USD 2.9 million for it. He converted the dollars into bitcoins and donated to the NGO Give Directly. NFT has acquired Sina Estavi, CEO of Bridge Oracle cryptocurrency. It was not just about helping in a just cause, because the businessman posted a tweet (NFT) on the stock exchange a few days later. He wanted to get as much as $ 48 million for it. Half of the amount was to be spent on charity. The problem is that the highest bidder was around $ 280. So Estavi fielded the NFT again. This time, the most wanted to pay $ 132.72 for it. So he canceled the auction again. The most interested himself also has other big problems. In May 2021, he was arrested for "disrupting the economic system" in Iran and charged with misleading investors. He is now free and probably returned to the topic of selling the NFT. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been continuing trading just below the last week high located at $1,344, so the market is range bounded. The local high was made at the level of $1,340 and then the market reversed lower towards the middle of the range The nearest technical support is seen at $1,281 and $1,267. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (marked orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,333 WR2 - $1,318 WR1 - $1,311 Weekly Pivot - $1,302 WS1 - $1,295 WS2 - $1,286 WS3 - $1,270 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-20 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297457
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

It All Started With Bitcoin, This Is Why BTC Indicates The State Of The Entire Cryptocurrency Market

Binance Academy Binance Academy 19.10.2022 14:07
TL;DR Bitcoin dominance is the share of the original cryptocurrency, BTC, in the entire crypto market’s capitalization. For quite some time since its inception in 2009, bitcoin remained the only digital asset in existence and thus, naturally, solely accounted for all the crypto market’s capitalization. However, over time, things started to change. The year 2013 saw the first wave of altcoins that added their value to the crypto market cap’s formula. 2015 was the birth of Ethereum — Bitcoin’s closest rival that spawned the currency ether — and then, in 2017, the ICO boom resulted in BTC dominance further diluted and hitting an all-time low, only to recover to above 50% in a few months. Today, BTC dominance faces its heaviest competition in DeFi, NFT and metaverse tokens, and over 20,000 non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies. Introduction Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency, was launched to the public in 2009 by an anonymous developer or group of developers known as Satoshi Nakomoto. Since then, despite the emergence of competition, bitcoin has remained the world's largest and most valuable cryptocurrency. Its underlying technology has also inspired the development of thousands of new cryptocurrencies collectively known as alternative coins, or altcoins.  Bitcoin’s standing against the rest of digital assets continues to be hugely important and indicative of the state of the overall crypto market. To measure bitcoin’s market cap relative to the larger crypto market, traders and analysts use a ratio called bitcoin dominance, also known as BTC dominance. Learn more on Binance.com What is BTC Dominance? BTC dominance is the share of bitcoin in the crypto market’s overall value. It is calculated by dividing BTC’s market cap by the total cryptocurrency market cap.  But why is it important? Historically, traders have used BTC dominance to help understand whether altcoins are on an up or downtrend against bitcoin. For example, one popular theory is that the crypto market is heading into a bull market if altcoins are trending up. In 2017, for instance, a significant decline in BTC dominance signaled altcoin prices skyrocketing (rather than BTC price declining), coinciding with the entire market entering a bull phase. From One Cryptocurrency to Thousands In 2011, the first altcoin, litecoin, was born, and in 2013 — dubbed “the year of the bitcoin” by Forbes magazine — the number of new altcoins entering the market began to rise quickly. By May 2013, the crypto market counted at least ten tokens, including litecoin (LTC) and Ripple’s XRP.  Concurrently, bitcoin’s price skyrocketed as more investors discovered the digital asset space for the first time. Yet, even with a few newcomers to compete against, BTC dominance remained at around 95% during this period.  The birth of Ethereum In 2015, Vitalik Buterin and a team of developers launched the Ethereum (ETH) network. It set to rival Bitcoin as a blockchain that allowed more use cases beyond financial services like the transfer of money. Unfazed by the competition in Ethereum’s native token, ether (ETH), bitcoin continued to account for around 90-95% of the crypto market. Things only started to change in 2017 — the start of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom. ICO fever  Initial coin offerings (ICOs), a popular crowdfunding method for early-stage crypto projects, became a prominent trend from 2017 to 2018. There were around 2000 unique ICOs during this period, with over $10 billion raised cumulatively. Funds began flowing from bitcoin into many of the newer altcoins that surfaced at that time. Some investors believed in the compelling, yet unproven, use cases, while some were more interested in profiting off dramatic price swings.  The unprecedented influx of altcoin competition resulted in bitcoin dominance experiencing its first major decline, dropping to an all-time low of around 37% in January 2018.  2018’s crypto winter While it had generated considerable attention toward crypto, the ICO boom was ultimately short-lived. Investors realized that many ICO projects lacked core fundamentals or had questionable business practices. Some projects even became the target of regulatory scrutiny by the U.S. and other authorities. This increase in negative sentiment eventually overtook the industry, sending the entire crypto market into a prolonged period of price decline and stagnation. Bitcoin’s recovery With many altcoins’ value tanking and investors’ general disillusionment in ICOs, BTC dominance gradually climbed back to over 50% by the final months of 2018.  In 2019, bitcoin’s price experienced a slight resurgence, trading at around $7,000 by the end of the year, while BTC dominance peaked at about 70% in September. The digital asset, however, would remain relatively still until the COVID-19 pandemic struck the world in 2020. The COVID market Beginning in 2020 — in the aftermath of a short, COVID-fulled dip — the crypto market would enter a record-breaking bull run. Simultaneously, BTC dominance would reach 72% in January 2021, its highest tally since 2017, before collapsing to 39% by mid-2021.  With the looming pandemic, many people, bored and stuck at home, turned to day trading and investing to pass the time. Meanwhile, to offset the pandemic’s economic downturn, governments around the world issued cash handouts to stimulate their struggling economies. Retail traders invested a considerable portion of these funds in stocks, forex, or the crypto market for the first time. Now, following all the media attention to crypto during the latter half of 2020, altcoins became an increasingly attractive, albeit risky, choice for retail investors, especially newcomers looking for quick gains. For example, shiba inu (SHIB) saw its price go up more than 40 million percent in 2021.  Further, the rapid growth of innovations like decentralized finance (DeFI) and NFTs, which primarily exist on competing blockchains like Ethereum and Solana (SOL), contributed to bitcoin losing more of its market share. Solana’s price, for example, increased from $1.50 to an all-time high of $250 in 2021 after gaining significant institutional and retail interest in its underlying technology.  Since then, BTC dominance has struggled to climb over 50%. BTC dominance’s recent slow growth may have something to do with ETH 2.0, Ethereum’s long-awaited switch to proof-of-stake, and the ongoing bear market.    Clothing Thoughts In recent years, the growth of the altcoin market has diluted bitcoin’s market share. Unlike the early years, when there were very few competitors, bitcoin now competes against DeFi tokens, the increasingly popular NFT sector, and thousands of other cryptocurrencies.  Even so, bitcoin is still the leading cryptocurrency in terms of market cap, with BTC dominance unlikely to go away anytime soon. For starters, many investors see bitcoin as a store of value because of its finite supply — hence the nickname “digital gold.” But most importantly, bitcoin’s status as the industry’s first-ever cryptocurrency has given it a competitive edge in the digital asset market. However, history has shown if something better comes along, that first-mover advantage won’t last very long. It remains to be seen if there’ll ever be another cryptocurrency to dominate the crypto market as much as bitcoin has so far.
Scottie Pippen (Basketball Player) Received A Personalized NFT

Another Ethereum's Update Is On The Horizon

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.10.2022 08:34
Crypto Industry News: We've barely forgotten about Merge, and another Ethereum update is on the horizon. This time, developers want to focus on, among others on lowering gas charges. The new trial version is now available. The Pre-Shanghai test network was named Shandong. This means that developers can prepare for deployments. The update is to take place in 2023. Most likely in the second half. This will be the first Ethereum cryptocurrency update since the transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, Merge, which took place in September 2022. There will be many changes, and depending on the sources, different priorities are indicated. The most common talk of a few updates: EIP-4895 - is to enable users to pay out setH and won prizes via Beacon Chain. EIP-4844 - to offload the main Ethereum network and process operations in layer 2 networks. This is expected to increase network capacity and potentially also contribute to reducing gas bills. EIP-3540 - Separates encoding from data, which improves performance and allows easier changes to the Ethereum Virtual Machine. All these changes are expected to positively affect the performance and bandwidth of Ethereum. In addition, at least some of them may also have a positive impact on the experience of ordinary users - you would certainly appreciate the reduction in gas fees. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair moves lower again as the momentum on the H4 time frame chart is now weak and negative. The local high was made at the level of $1,340 and then the market reversed lower towards the middle of the range The nearest technical support is seen at $1,281 and $1,267. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (marked orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,333 WR2 - $1,318 WR1 - $1,311 Weekly Pivot - $1,302 WS1 - $1,295 WS2 - $1,286 WS3 - $1,270 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 07:00 2022-10-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297563
Maker DAO launched Spark Protocol. SushiSwap rolled out its v3 concentrated liquidity pools

Concerns Around The Lack Of Publicity Of Aptos Tokenomics | New Version Of Flashbots Ethereum Software

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 20.10.2022 10:01
Weekly DeFi Index This week’s market cap, volume, and volatility indices were positive at +3.29%, +13.50%, and +73.12%, respectively. Check the latest prices on Crypto.com/Price DeFi Index Tokens News Highlight Uniswap, a decentralised exchange protocol operating on Ethereum, will soon be deployed on privacy-focused Layer-2 tool zkSync. The proposal was put forth by Matter Labs, the developer behind zkSync, and was passed following a 100% community vote in favour of the move. According to Matter Labs, deploying to zkSync will allow Uniswap to offer lower transaction costs compared to the Ethereum blockchain without compromising security. This also follows Uniswap Labs’s latest announcement that it raised US$165 million in Series B funding led by Polychain Capital.  Aptos finally hit the mainnet after years of development, but the rollout so far has been met with criticism. Months prior to launch, Aptos claimed that it can handle 130,000 transactions per second (TPS) — significantly more than other layer-1 solutions like Ethereum and Solana — but it was observed to only have reached a speed of 4 TPS at launch. A pseudonymous user tweeted: “majority of these transactions are not actual transactions, they are merely validators communicating and setting block checkpoints and writing metadata to the blockchain”. There were also concerns around the lack of publicity of its tokenomics, despite the fact that most centralised exchanges already announced listing Aptos’s native token on their platforms.  On Friday, The Ethereum Foundation announced the launch of ‘Shandong’, an early pre-Shanghai testnet that will serve as a testing ground for numerous Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). Shanghai is Ethereum’s next major upgrade post-Merge, and will introduce code that will allow network validators to withdraw their staked Ether. DEX Protocols Metrics Lending Protocols Metrics Charts on Layer-2 Projects The overall L2 market saw positive growth last week, as its TVL rose by +0.78%. Optimistic rollup projects jumped by +3.29%, while zero-knowledge rollup projects fell by -5.63%. Ethereum’s TVL change was positive at +0.61%. The TVL changes for all optimistic rollup projects were all positive except for Layer 2.Finance (-0.45%). Metis Andromeda surged the most at +12.90%. ZK rollup projects’ TVL movement was a mixed bag: StarkNet saw the highest growth at +8.24%, while Loopring plummeted the most at -9.09%. Further Reading Flashbots reveals new version of its key Ethereum software BlockTower launches $150M fund to Invest in blockchain infrastructure and DeFi Tether ditches commercial paper reserves for T-Bills Crypto market maker Wintermute pays off $96M TrueFi debt weeks after being hacked Mango Market’s DAO forum set to approve $47M settlement with hacker Moola Market exploited for $8.4 million Moran Hard Fork: BNB Smart Chain set to execute a hard fork as temporary patch fix for its $100 million exploit Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
The Crypto Market Is Also Highly Volatile, So Drastic Price Swings Require Traders To Think Fast

We're past The Ethereum Merge, now we start to think about next Bitcoin halving which may happen quite shortly

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 20.10.2022 14:00
Recently, investors and speculators in the cryptocurrency market seemed to focus on Merge ETH and the transition from PoW to PoS. This event is now behind us, and for the moment it does not seem to affect the ETH price particularly. Meanwhile, after a deep bear market, the topic of bitcoin halving may soon come to mind. This event may take place in April 2024. Halving bitcoin About once every 4 years, or more precisely every 210000 blocks, the issuance of new bitcoin is halved. This is due to the BTC algorithm, which was created in 2008, where every 4 years or so the reward to miners halves. The process should continue until there are no more than 21 million BTCs in the world, which could be around 2140. By now, more than 90 percent of the total supply of bitcoin is already on the market, while by 2030, at this rate of new coin creation, there could already be 98 percent of the total supply on the market. The halving phenomenon, in turn, is supposed to be responsible for controlling the deflationary nature of this cryptocurrency. With each successive halving, BTC becomes a rarer good and its inflation rate decreases. Today, bitcoin's inflation rate is 1.78 percent. After the next halving, in April 2024, this inflation rate will drop to 1.1 percent, etfstream calculates. What has been the history of BTC halving? As already mentioned, every 4 years or so, there is a processing of 210000 blocks, which halves the amount of reward miners receive. Bitcoin went public in January 2009. At that point, the incentive given to miners for supporting the blockchain and verifying the network was 50 BTC. The first halving of bitcoin took place when 210000 blocks were successfully mined, and this occurred on November 28, 2012. At that time, the reward dropped from 50 to 25 BTC. Another 210000 blocks were processed on July 9, 2016. The reward halved from 25 BTC to 12.5. In 2020, the reward was already only 6.25 BTC, and in 2024, according to the algorithm, it will be 3.125 BTC. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTC/USD, MN Bear market vs. time after bitcoin halving Why are we writing just now about an event that will not take place until April 2024? The reason may be the potential cycles of the BTC market, which has seen spectacular increases and massive corrections. Nevertheless, after the halving, the BTC price reached its bottom in a correction for about 29 months after the event. The last halving took place in May 2020. So now it is just 29 months since the reduction of the miners' reward, and the market seems to be in a strong correction. If history and the cycles of BTC were to repeat itself, it seems that the current fall could be significant for this market. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

Investor Jim Rogers Believes The Current Bear Market Will Be Much Worse

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.10.2022 09:56
Crypto Industry News: Investor Jim Rogers, who founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire George Soros, expects the current bear market to be much worse than we think. He adds that the recession ahead will be the worst of his life. "We will probably have our last rally, but that will be the end," he predicts. The famous investor Jim Rogers shared his view on the state of the US economy in a press interview published on Monday. Rogers is a former business partner of George Soros who co-founded Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. He was asked if right now was "the beginning of an impending recession, the worst some have predicted". Rogers replied: "Well, (...) yeah, this is going to be the worst [recession] of my life. "In 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt, but since 2009 debt has increased sharply everywhere," he added, explaining why he believes that we are in a very tough crisis. In July, Rogers had already warned that the worst slump of his life was coming. He also predicted the end of the US dollar. It is still unknown how cryptocurrencies would react to such a long bear market. There is a chance that they would break away from the stock market and function as safe haven. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had been rejected form the 30 periods moving average after the Pin Bar candlestick was made at $1,309 and moves lower again. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart is now weak and negative. The local high was made at the level of $1,340 and then the market reversed lower towards the middle of the range The nearest technical support is seen at $1,281 and $1,267. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (marked orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,333 WR2 - $1,318 WR1 - $1,311 Weekly Pivot - $1,302 WS1 - $1,295 WS2 - $1,286 WS3 - $1,270 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297768
Epic Games and Lego Group are collaborating to build a metaverse. Ubisoft is partnering with Reality Labs to create a NFT collection

Magic Eden Is The Latest NFT Marketplace | The World Of Football And Skateboarding At The NFT (PSG x Clown Skateboards)

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 21.10.2022 11:03
Key Takeaways Solana-based Magic Eden has become the latest NFT marketplace to shift to an optional royalties model, following in the footsteps of X2Y2 in August. Under this model, buyers can make the decision on how much royalties to pay. Playing card brand Bicycle bought a Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT for US$187,000. The brand plans to create and sell physical playing cards based on the Ape. Bicycle specifically chose an Ape with a joker playing card in a helmet — only 2% of the 10,000 Apes have this attribute. NFT fantasy sports gaming platform Sorare is launching a free-to-play digital collectible-based fantasy basketball game in partnership with the NBA. Players can collect NFT trading cards featuring NBA basketball players, as well as assemble and manage teams. X2Y2 recorded a -30% decrease in sales and a -10% decrease in transactions. Meanwhile, OpenSea‘s sales were positive at +39% and its transaction count also increased +66%. The total market cap for GameFi tokens now stands at $7.2 billion, down -7% from last week. Crypto.com NFT in the Spotlight The “Halloween Bash – Create Your Own Halloween Monster” NFT collection allows users to explore endless combinations in pursuit of creating their completely unique creature. A collaborative effort between seven prominent NFT creators, this drop is cementing itself as a major show of artistic excellence. “PSG x Clown Skateboards” features the worlds of football and skateboarding, as well as the two beloved cities of Paris and London, with accompanying easter eggs. This NFT collection is created by Clown Skateboards‘s Jeff Boardman and Vikas Malik, in collaboration with the Paris Saint-Germain football club. NFT Highlights Azuki reveals physical backed tokens for on-chain ownership of physical items Shopify users get their hands on Tezos NFTs with new partnership Digital real estate platform sells house as an NFT Coinshares launches experimental new NFT pricing tool Latin American exchange Lemon integrates with NFT marketplace TravelX to allow airline ticket purchases GameFi Highlights GameFi platform Arcade raises $3.2M led by Crypto.com and other prominent investors DappRadar says Decentraland has 650 daily active users Major League Baseball is hiring to expand its NFT, digital games and metaverse presence Web3 infrastructure firm ChainSafe raises $18.75M as attention shifts to GameFi Japan’s Konami seeks to hire talents to advance Web 3, metaverse, and NFT efforts NFT Transaction Benchmark The following chart shows select top NFTs and their historical floor prices: Top Collections The following table shows select top creators (by sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Sample Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $99,000 Minted VVS Miner Mole $59,000 Magic Eden DeGods $2,235,000 OpenSea CryptoPunks $3,623,000 Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Loaded Lions Sales Volume (USD) $99,000 Sample Platform Minted Collection VVS Miner Mole Sales Volume (USD) $59,000 Sample Platform Magic Eden Collection DeGods Sales Volume (USD) $2,235,000 Sample Platform OpenSea Collection CryptoPunks Sales Volume (USD) $3,623,000 Sample GameFi Top Gainers & Losers Top Games Metrics Daily Gamers by Blockchain Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile.
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) - The British Financial Market Regulator Has Published A Supervisory Strategy For The Cryptocurrency Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.10.2022 10:43
Crypto Industry News: The amendment to the Financial Services and Markets Act, which is currently being processed by the UK Parliament, will expand the powers of the authorities to regulate various activities in the digital asset market. The amendment was written by Andrew Griffith, MP and Financial Secretary of the Treasury. The 335-page bill was introduced into legislative circulation in July and had its second reading in the House of Commons on September 7. According to the justification accompanying the said amendment, this one is intended to "clarify" the "rights related to the promotion" of financial services and other cryptocurrency related activities. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the British regulator of the financial market, published an open letter on August 9, which describes in detail the supervisory strategy for "alternative" financial companies, i.e. those from the cryptocurrency market. Let's add that most of the cryptocurrency companies in the UK are not now under the control of the FCA, although they have the option to apply for a special license to operate. Anyway, they will have to do the latter next year at the latest. The registration process currently only covers anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing measures. However, it turned out to be too difficult for many applicants. The FCA also took action in August on advertising high-risk financial products and made it clear that cryptocurrency assets could be risky. In March this year. FCA also announced that it is looking for employees with experience in the field of cryptocurrencies. As it was then reported, the authority is preparing to launch a new department responsible for regulating this sector. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had been rejected form higher price levels after the failed breakout above the trend line. The local high was made at $1,369 and then the market reversed back under the trend line again. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart had hit the extremely overbought market conditions, so the pull-back is imminent. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,344 was broken, so the next are seen at $1,318 and $1,299. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (marked orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,413 WR2 - $1,379 WR1 - $1,357 Weekly Pivot - $1,345 WS1 - $1,323 WS2 - $1,311 WS3 - $1,267 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298009
Craig Erlam And Jonny Hart Discuss Crypto Situation And The US Election Results

CipherTrace And Its Help In Investigating Illegal Transactions Involving Cryptocurrencies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.10.2022 12:36
Amid a lull in the crypto market, Mastercard has announced the release of new software that would help banks detect and block transactions with fraud-prone crypto exchanges. The new system, called Crypto Secure, uses complex AI algorithms to determine the risk of crime associated with crypto exchanges on the Mastercard payment network. The company said that the system relies on data from the blockchain, a public record of crypto transactions, as well as other sources. Startup Mastercard The service is powered by CipherTrace, a blockchain security startup Mastercard acquired last year. CipherTrace helps companies and state institutions investigate illicit transactions involving cryptocurrencies. Its main competitor is the New York-based firm Chainalysis, as well as Elliptic. Mastercard noted that the service was launched due to growing crime in the nascent digital asset market. According to Chainalysis, the amount of crypto entering wallets with known criminal connections surged to a record $14 billion last year. Furthermore, 2022 saw a wave of high-profile hacking attacks and scams targeting crypto investors. On the Crypto Secure platform, banks and other card issuers are shown a dashboard with color-coded ratings representing the risk of suspicious activity. The decision on whether to turn away a specific crypto merchant is down to the card issuers themselves, and not Crypto Secure. Mastercard Mastercard already uses a similar technology to prevent fraud in fiat currency transactions. Crypto Secure extends this functionality to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In an interview with CNBC, Ajay Bhalla, Mastercard's president of cyber and intelligence business, said that the move was about ensuring its partners can stay compliant with the complex regulatory landscape. "The whole digital asset market is now a pretty large, substantial market. The idea is that the kind of trust we provide for digital commerce transactions, we want to be able to provide the same kind of trust to digital asset transactions for consumers, banks and merchants," Bhalla said. Bitcoin On the technical side, Bitcoin has recouped losses it sustained during an earlier slump. The market is now balanced once again, suggesting that risk appetite of investors is low. The key level for BTC at this point is the resistance at $19,500. The cryptocurrency needs to regain this level to begin a new upward correction. If BTC breaks above this level, it would then need to break through the resistance at $20,540 and $21,410. If BTC ends up under increased pressure, which is quite possible, bulls would need to defend the support levels of $19,100 and $18,625. A breakout below these levels would quickly push the instrument back towards the lower boundary of the sideways channel at $18,100, opening the way towards $17,580. Ethereum Ethereum has rebounded from the strong support level of $1,275 upwards and is currently moving sideways. A breakout through $1,275 could change the situation in the market significantly. However, ETH would need to settle above $1,343 to stabilize the situation and return balance. From there, Ethereum could rise towards $1,402 and $1,457, with more distant targets being $1,504 and $1,550. Continuing pressure on the instrument and a breakout below $1,275 could send the instrument down towards the support at $1,210. If ETH breaks through this level, it would slide down to $1,150, where major market players would come into play once again.     Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325108
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Cryptocurrency Volatility Continues To Decline | The European Union And Energy Efficiency For Blockchains

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 24.10.2022 13:42
Crypto volatility in freefall. Ethereum launches Shandong testnet. Europe to develop energy efficiency label for blockchains. Chart(s) of the Week: Crypto Volatility Freefall Crypto volatility continues to fall, as seen in the options implied volatilities (vols) downtrend for both BTC and ETH. Implied vols are derived from the options market and are typically used as forward-looking measures of risk. 1-week implied vol for BTC currently is at 43.7%, the lowest level this year.  While one interpretation of the low volatility could be less cautious sentiment, it could also be seen as a somewhat dull environment from a short-term trading perspective as the price is essentially stuck in a narrow sideways range. The low implied vols potentially also indicate relatively cheap prices for downside protection via options. Crypto Fund Flow Tracker The aggregated exchange balances for both BTC and ETH continued to fall over the past week, potentially implying weakening sell pressure. No significant movements were seen in OTC (over-the-counter) desks’ balance for BTC. OTC desks are typically used by larger investors. Crypto Derivatives Pulse No significant movements in BTC and ETH put-call ratios over the past week. BTC perpetual futures funding rates remain positive (longs pay shorts), while ETH funding rates continue to hover around neutral levels. Crypto Price Movements Crypto News Highlights Ethereum (ETH) launches Shandong, a testnet to prepare for the Shanghai upgrade. Shandong will be a testing ground for numerous Ethereum Improvement proposals (EIPs) for selecting to include in the later Shanghai upgrade, one of which could potentially be allowing those that hold staked ETH to withdraw it.  The European Union is set to develop an energy efficiency label for blockchains. This is part of wider plans to control energy consumption of the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector.  Aptos (APT), a Layer-1 blockchain, launched its mainnet. Aptos was created by ex-Meta developers and includes among its investors Andreessen Horowitz. Following the launch, there has been some controversy about its tokenomics and transaction speed being slower than claimed. Fidelity’s crypto platform, Fidelity Digital Assets, will allow its institutional clients to trade ETH starting on 28 October. This follows Fidelity’s launch of an Ethereum Index Fund for accredited investors back in late-September. A single miner managed to capture a large portion of the Bitcoin SV (Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision) blockchain by accounting for as high as 80% of the hashrate. The miner has been mining near-empty blocks, making the blockchain unusable for long periods of time. Catalyst Calendar Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners.  
The leading cryptocurrency may fell because of inflation and Fed – Weekly Crypto Market Analysis by Geco.one

The leading cryptocurrency may fell because of inflation and Fed – Weekly Crypto Market Analysis by Geco.one

Geco One Geco One 24.10.2022 15:26
Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin has been running since mid-September this year in a horizontal trend between the support of $ 18,500 and the resistance in the region of $ 20,650 and measuring the 50% Fibonacci retracement from an earlier downward impulse. Considering that the end of October promises to be relatively calm on the global financial markets regarding important macroeconomic data releases, it seems highly probable that BTC will remain in the range mentioned above for the next 1.5 weeks. The catalyst for higher volatility may be the meeting of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations (FOMC) scheduled for November 2nd. Given the positive US labour market data presented in the October 7th Nonfarm Payrolls report and last week's inflation readings, it seems highly probable that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row by 75 basis points in November. The report published October 13th this year shows that consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States in September amounted to as much as 8.2%, which means it decreased by only 0.1 percentage point from 8.3 per cent reported in August this year. As if that were not enough, core inflation, which the Fed pays special attention to, increased to 6.6% from 6.3%, which speaks for a further aggressive tightening of monetary policy, which could ultimately contribute to the renewed depreciation of BTC. The assumptions of classic technical analysis also support this scenario. Consolidation, i.e. the pattern that we have been observing on Bitcoin for over five weeks, is perceived as a correction system from which the market breaks more often in the direction consistent with the earlier move. So, if, in this case, we had previously seen declines, statistically, there is a greater probability that BTC will fall below $ 18,500, which in turn could drive further depreciation. Ethereum (ETH) The current situation on the Ethereum quotes is also very similar, the price of which has been in the horizontal trend for a long time. In this case, its lower bound is at the support of around USD 1,250, and the upper resistance is around USD 1,425. Considering that this is a pattern seen as a form of temporary rebound after previous declines and that the upper bound of this pattern coincides with measuring 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement from an earlier downward move, it seems highly probable that after this correction is completed, the ETH exchange rate will return to the downward path and will slide down to the region of USD 1,000, or even further to USD 800. It is worth mentioning here, however, that there is no rule for how long a market can remain in consolidation. One can estimate that the ETH rate will remain within this consolidation until November 2nd when the next Federal Reserve meeting will occur. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash has been operating since mid-October this year in a horizontal trend, the upper bound of which is marked by the recently broken support (now resistance) of $ 112. If only the market rebounds from this level, the price of this cryptocurrency could return to the downward path and slide even to the  â€‹â€‹June and July lows, i.e. to USD 97. Potential declines are also supported by the fact that the current consolidation is in the form of a correction after previous declines, which naturally increases the probability that BCH will slide even lower after the rebound. Litecoin (LTC) Litecoin's quotations have been held since September 18th in the ascending right-angled triangle formation, from which the market is still knocked down in the first half of October this year. Over the last few days, however, the LTC rate has increased by over 12%, thus re-testing the previously broken upward trend line, which is the lower boundary of the above triangle. However, a rebound from this resistance could drive further declines, for which the USD 47 and 42 seem to be the actual ranges. It is there that the two closest support levels are located. Solana (SOL) The re-test of the recently defeated support (now resistance) is also currently observed on the Solana quotes. In this case, it is in the $ 29.50, close to the downward trend. A rebound from this ceiling could trigger another downward impulse towards USD 26. It is also worth noting that it would be one of the lowest levels since July 2021. Avalanche (AVAX) Looking at the Avalanche quotes, we notice that, in line with our last week's projection, the cryptocurrency rate has recently rebounded from technical support by $ 14.50, then increased by 12.5%, thus returning to the area of ​​previously defeated support (now resistance) in the region of USD 16.50. If the currently tested resistance is discarded in the near future, the AVAX price could nevertheless return to the path of decline and slide back to the region of $ 14.50 or even further below $ 10. Binance Coin (BNB) Binance Coin has been trading since the second half of August this year. In a horizontal trend between the support of $ 262 and the resistance in the region of $ 297. It is worth noting that within this consolidation, a second, smaller one has recently emerged, the upper limit of which is marked by local resistance around USD 276. The common features of both of these systems are their lower bound, marked by the support of $ 262 and the fact that both of these consolidations are corrective formations after previous declines, which increases the likelihood of a breakout from them down, which in turn could naturally drive a further BNB sell-off in towards USD 244, or even USD 214. EOS Looking at the EOS quotes, we notice that the price of this cryptocurrency fell between October 1 and 13 this year by almost 24%, reaching $ 0.94 at one point. Over the last few days, however, there has been a slight demand reaction here, and if only these increases continue, the EOS rate could return to the area of ​​earlier made support (now resistance) in the amount of USD 1.15. However, the small dynamics of this rebound may indicate that it is only a temporary correction, after which the price of this cryptocurrency will return to the downward path. If that happens, it could fall as low as $ 0.88. Chainlink (LINK) Chainlink's quotations have recently slipped to an upward trend line and horizontal support of USD 6.65. A slight demand reaction appeared a few days ago in the vicinity of this support. It is worth noting, however, that each of the last three rebounds from this level, which we observed in the second half of September this year and in the first half of October this year. And now it was getting smaller. This may indicate a weakening demand pressure, increasing the probability of overcoming this support. If that happens, LINK could fall as low as $ 5.90.
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

Failed Breakout Of The Ethereum (ETH/USD) Above The Trend Line

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.10.2022 11:35
Crypto Industry News: Rishi Sunak has become the new leader of the Conservative Party in Great Britain. This means that he will also head the British government. This may have an impact on the cryptocurrency policy of the Albion government. Rishi Sunak will replace Liza Truss, who has headed the British government for just over a month, as Prime Minister. Sunak himself competed with her for the office of head of government immediately after Boris Johnson's resignation. It didn't work then. He won 60,399 votes, while Truss 81,326. Now, however, this former finance minister is taking power in the party and thus in the country. Sunak was elected leader by members of the Conservative Party on Monday. Truss was forced to resign after her plan to fight the crisis proved impossible to implement. While serving as Finance Minister in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government, Sunak announced that he wanted to turn the UK into a cryptocurrency hub. He helped prepare, among others The Financial Services and Markets Act, which, if enacted, could give local regulators broad power over the cryptocurrency industry - starting with the inclusion of asset-linked cryptocurrencies such as stablecoins within the scope of the payment market regulations. Under his leadership, the Royal Mint was entrusted with the task of creating the NFT collection, which, however, is yet to be realized. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had been rejected form higher price levels after the failed breakout above the trend line. The local high was made at $1,369 and then the market reversed back under the trend line again. Currently, the bulls and bears are consolidating in a tight range, between the trend line resistance and the technical support. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart had hit the extremely overbought market conditions, so the pull-back is imminent. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,344 was broken, so the next are seen at $1,318 and $1,299. Please keep an eye on the market behavior close to the local trend line (marked orange on chart). The demand zone is now located between the levels of $1,191 - $1,1219. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,413 WR2 - $1,379 WR1 - $1,357 Weekly Pivot - $1,345 WS1 - $1,323 WS2 - $1,311 WS3 - $1,267 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.       Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298197
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

Spain Is A Leader In Europe In Terms Of The Number Of Crypto ATMs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.10.2022 10:22
Crypto Industry News: Spain is currently a country where as many as 260 crypto ATMs have been installed, which pushes El Salvador - where there are 212 such devices - to the fourth position in the CoinATMRadar ranking. The data confirms that the country is behind 0.6% of the world's cryptocurrency ATM installations. Moreover, it means that Spain is the market leader in Europe. In second place we have Poland (205 devices), followed by Switzerland (152 ATMs) and Romania (139). In 2022 alone, more than 40 ATMs were installed in Spain. This year, a total of over 100 ATMs will be installed. MediaMarkt, a German electronics retailer, and Confinity are working to install devices in Austria, Germany, Greece and Spain. Interestingly, Spain is going against the tide when it comes to the global trend. There is a net change in crypto ATMS installation around the world. New data confirms that 796 devices were withdrawn from the global network in September. Nevertheless, calculations based on data from the past 60 days show that around seven devices are installed worldwide every day. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had broken out from the consolidation zone and made a new local high at the level of $1,525. It took only two H4 time frame candles (8h) to rally over $184 (14%), so the breakout is strong and might extend higher. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart had hit the extremely overbought market conditions, so the pull-back is imminent. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,473 and $1,449 and the next target for bulls is seen at $1,645. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,413 WR2 - $1,379 WR1 - $1,357 Weekly Pivot - $1,345 WS1 - $1,323 WS2 - $1,311 WS3 - $1,267 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-10-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298353
Look At Comments On Bitcoin Prices, Ethereum Market And If The CEO Of Polkadot Is Resigning

Look At Comments On Bitcoin Prices, Ethereum Market And If The CEO Of Polkadot Is Resigning

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 26.10.2022 13:10
What happens if the CEO of a famous protocol is resigning? What could it mean for the price action of the token? We'll discuss it in detail when looking at the recent developments of Polkadot... 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:36 CryptoNews 02:41 Bitcoin 04:48 Ethereum 08:42 MaticPolygon 10:29 Polkadot 12:17 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Technical analysis of Ethereum (ETH) price - 27/10/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2022 12:46
Crypto Industry News: Merge Ethereum was a landmark event. Many people agreed that this is undoubtedly one of the key events in history - not only Ethereum, but all cryptocurrencies. Some expected the mechanism to change from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Many people also expected increases, and some thought that changing the mechanism could cause Ethereum to dethrone Bitcoin. However, after Merge, we saw declines instead of increases. And since around September 20 it has been in consolidation, only yesterday we could notice a bigger move. The transition to the proof-of-stake mechanism was to reduce the daily supply of ETH by approximately 90%. Inflation was supposed to be close to 0, and some expected deflation. The smaller supply combined with low inflation made the market expect increases. Some expected a "supply shock", ie a situation where there are many buyers but a shortage of resources in the market. Why has there not been and will not be (at least for now) huge increases? Above all, cryptocurrency prices are also influenced by market expectations for the future. And in front of Merge, the market was red-hot - expectations were enormous. With such moods, it is very easy to get disappointed and cause declines. Additionally, it is worth noting that the macroeconomic sentiment is not conducive to growth. Raging inflation and rising interest rates are reflected in on risky assets, and this group includes cryptocurrencies. Moreover, we observe an increased interest of politicians in regulations. Both the United States and the European Union are working on introducing cryptocurrency laws. And regulations have already been introduced by many countries, including South Korea, India, China. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had broken out from the consolidation zone and made a new local high at the level of $1,593 (at the time of writing the article). The Ethereum rally made so far over $254 (19%), so the breakout is strong and might extend even higher. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart had hit the extremely overbought market conditions, so the pull-back is imminent. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,473 and $1,513. The next target for bulls is seen at $1,645.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,413 WR2 - $1,379 WR1 - $1,357 Weekly Pivot - $1,345 WS1 - $1,323 WS2 - $1,311 WS3 - $1,267 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298593
Epic Games and Lego Group are collaborating to build a metaverse. Ubisoft is partnering with Reality Labs to create a NFT collection

Horse Racing At The NFT-DeRace | OpenSea Sales Were Positive, GameFi Saw An Increase

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 28.10.2022 09:28
Key Takeaways Crypto.com signed an MOU with gaming software development studio ACT Games. The Cronos blockchain will soon be powering ACT Games’s NFT trading card game “Zoids Wild NFT Arena”. Crypto.com will issue an NFT collection based on A Story produced Korean drama “Extraordinary Attorney Woo”. Four whale artworks produced by top Korean illustrator Chul-min Lee were also showcased at Blockchain Week in Busan. Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT holders have access to a new merchandise drop. The BAYC x McBess x The Dudes drop contains apparel, accessories, and artwork. Amongst the items are t-shirts, jackets, prints, and stickers with monochromatic designs. Reddit brought half a million or more newcomers to the world of NFTs, using a jargon-free approach to presenting digital collectibles. Around three million wallets have been created to acquire Reddit’s Collectible Avatars, and sales volumes have exceeded US$6.7 million. X2Y2 recorded a -19% decrease in sales and a -15% decrease in transactions. Meanwhile, OpenSea‘s sales were positive at +21% and its transaction count also increased +9%. The total market cap for GameFi tokens now stands at $7.83 billion, up +9% from last week. Crypto.com NFT in the Spotlight The “Visa Masters of Movement” NFT collection is a fusion of football, art, and technology. To celebrate FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, Visa has taken some of football’s most iconic moves from five legendary players and transformed them into digital art. Proceeds from the sales of this collection will also benefit the charity Street Child United. DeRace is an NFT horse racing metaverse based on blockchain technology and it allows players to race, equip, breed, and rent NFT horses. Each “DeRace Mystery Box” contains one wearable NFT for your virtual horse, including saddles, horseshoes, and stirrups.These can be used to unlock the performance of the NFT horses or traded on NFT marketplaces. NFT Highlights NFT marketplace LooksRare switches to optional royalties OpenSea revises OpenRarity Protocol to reflect market dynamics Twitter will allow users to buy and sell NFTs through tweets Over $1M worth of ETH and NFTs stolen in phishing attack Apple to allow in-app purchase of NFTs, subject to 30% tax rate Swiss Seba Bank launches NFT custody despite market decline GameFi Highlights Gaming and NFTs will drive Web3 growth: Crypto.com COO Blockchain game Alien Worlds launches in-game DAOs Nissan to launch game NFTs Axie Infinity drops 22% over the week amid fears of token unlock GameFi-focused network Oasys Blockchain launches mainnet with support of Sega, Ubisoft, and Bandai Namco NFT Transaction Benchmark The following chart shows select top NFTs and their historical floor prices: Top Collections The following table shows select top creators (by sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Sample Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $234,000 Minted Cronos Cruisers $291,000 Magic Eden y00ts: mint t00bs $1,711,000 OpenSea CryptoPunks $6,566,000 Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Loaded Lions Sales Volume (USD) $234,000 Sample Platform Minted Collection Cronos Cruisers Sales Volume (USD) $291,000 Sample Platform Magic Eden Collection y00ts: mint t00bs Sales Volume (USD) $1,711,000 Sample Platform OpenSea Collection CryptoPunks Sales Volume (USD) $6,566,000 Sample GameFi Top Gainers & Losers Top Games Metrics Daily Gamers by Blockchain Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile.  
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

More Institutions Now Invest In Cryptocurrencies Than A Year Ago

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.10.2022 09:43
Crypto Industry News: One of the biggest topics that has been debated in the cryptocurrency ecosystem for years is how the emergence of institutional investors will transform the sector and take it to new and higher levels. What will change when the world's largest asset managers enter the crypto scene. The severe crisis of 2022, which wiped out more than $ 2 trillion from the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, put an end to the expectations of many. However, new Fidelity data shows that institutions are still interested in getting exposure to an emerging asset class. According to the 2022 Institutional Investor Digital Assets Study conducted by Fidelity Digital Assets, which surveyed 1,052 institutional investors in Asia, Europe and the United States. It found that more institutions are now investing in cryptocurrencies than a year ago, when the cryptocurrency market was rising. "Despite the difficulties in the market, the adoption of digital assets among the surveyed institutional investors increased in both the US (42%) and Europe (67%), a 9-point and 11-point change year-on-year, respectively," Fidelity wrote in the report. Institutional investors in Asia have seen a slight decline in popularity over the past year, but are still the most accepting of digital assets of all regions surveyed, with 69% of respondents reporting an allocation to digital assets. Overall, 58% of those polled reported having digital assets in the first half of 2022, a 6% increase year on year. Both Bitcoin and digital assets as a whole were positively rated by 51% of respondents. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen making a local pull-back on the H4 time frame chart after the 19% rally hit the level of $1,594. The breakout was strong and might extend even higher when the pull-back is done. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart had hit the extremely overbought market conditions and is currently coming off this levels. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,473 and the level of $1,513 will now act as the intraday technical resistance. The next target for bulls is seen at $1,645. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,413 WR2 - $1,379 WR1 - $1,357 Weekly Pivot - $1,345 WS1 - $1,323 WS2 - $1,311 WS3 - $1,267 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298769
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

The Ethereum Community Is Working On Various Solutions

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.10.2022 11:51
Summary:  Following the Ethereum merge six weeks ago, we take a look at whether it has honored its promises. As expected, the merge has drastically decreased the issuance of Ether, however, it has also initiated fear over censorship of certain transactions on the Ethereum network. On the 15 September, the Ethereum merge occurred. At the merge, Ethereum’s consensus mechanism transitioned from computationally hungry proof-of-work to energy-friendly proof-of-stake. The merge was the most anticipated update of the Ethereum network since its inception, if not for all cryptocurrencies. Now, around six weeks later, the merge has impacted Ethereum positively but also in negative ways. Ethereum functions as before the merge The Ethereum merge occurred instantly and flawlessly without any interruptions to the network such as a network halt. This is positive for Ethereum’s ecosystem and for the world’s perception of the network. Likewise, for users and developers, the experience when interacting with the network is the same as before the merge. From 500,000 to 1,000 Ether As proof-of-stake demands much less computational power along with electricity, it can sustain a higher degree of security by compensating validators in proof-of-stake much less than miners in proof-of-work to verify transactions, also known as security cost. By lowering the security cost, the dilution of existing Ether holders is likewise reduced. Prior to the merge, the Ethereum network issued around 5.4mn new Ether yearly, whereas it currently issues between 600,000 and 700,000. As Ethereum burns the majority of paid transaction fees, its supply has nearly been fixed since the merge just as the amount of burned fees nearly offset newly issued Ether. Following the merge, the Ether supply has alone increased by around 1,000 Ether, whereas it would have increased by slightly more than 500,000 Ether without its transition to proof-of-stake. This is of much importance to Ether investors since they are now barely diluted. On the contrary, with proof-of-stake, they may choose to receive the newly issued Ether and the non-burned part of the transaction fees by being a staker. With only around 14.5mn staked Ether of the 120mn supply, being a staker entails a reward of up to 7% yearly. As such, Ether is now a non-diluting asset with a potential high yearly reward. This is in sharp contrast to before the merge, at which point Ethereum had inflation north of 3.5% with no compensation to investors because the inflation was paid to miners. This makes Ethereum more appealing to investors, particularly to non-crypto advocates, for whom Ethereum may serve as an example of how crypto can generate something similar to dividends. Still, validators are not yet able to withdraw from staking Ether. This prompts uncertainty and risk because investors have no clarity about when they will be able to withdraw from staking. While the risk is extremely minimal, the consequence must be mentioned. Ultimately, this implies that 14.5mn Ether can never be unstaked, possibly abolishing any faith in Ethereum. Taking into account that it may take a year until you can unstake Ether, this is a severe obstacle for Ethereum in the short term. Are we about to censor on the protocol level? The merge has made it conceivable that censoring of transactions on Ethereum’s protocol level could happen which is a concern. Following the merge, an increasing number of validators have outsourced the production of blocks to so-called MEV-boost (maximal extractable value) relays to increase staking rewards from non-burned transaction fees. By outsourcing block production to relays, validators may include transactions in its block that are not part of Ethereum’s public mempool, with the latter being the place, where transactions normally go prior to being verified and included in a block. Transactions that are not broadcasted to the mempool often include a much higher transaction fee, since the person in question is, for instance, executing arbitrage on decentralized finance protocols. By not broadcasting the transaction to a public mempool, it is assured that no one can front-run the original transaction before it is verified. However, the dispute with MEV-boost relays is that they are largely not yet properly decentralized. This means that the majority are subject to sanctions, so they are e.g., not allowed to include transactions from US-sanctioned mixer Tornado Cash due to Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions. As we speak, 64% of blocks censor transactions by outsourcing block production to OFAC-compliant relays. At the time of the merge, purely 9% of all blocks were subject to OFAC sanctions. In the case that 99% of blocks will be OFAC-compliant in the future, it will not be impossible to execute non-OFAC-compliant transactions, however, it will take up to 20 minutes to verify such a transaction and likely be more expensive, ultimately leading to a worse user experience for those transactions. Although the present amount of transactions affected is very limited, the potential implication in the future is substantial. In the case that censorship gets more widely exercised on the protocol level and the intensity of sanctions increases, Ethereum is likely doomed to fail long-term. This is not about being against regulation but ensuring that Ethereum’s protocol level continues to be neutral and decentralized, which are the key selling propositions of any blockchain. If Ethereum can no longer guarantee neutrality and full decentralization, users and developers are likely to choose another blockchain that can. It must be stated that the Ethereum community is working on various solutions, for instance, by concealing the content of transactions, so validators cannot censor transactions to the same extent. After all, these solutions are likely years in the making, so this issue will not be solved in the near term.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/cryptocurrencies/after-the-ethereum-merge-the-supply-is-stuck-28102022
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

A Local Pull-Back Has Been Seen In The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 31.10.2022 08:50
Crypto Industry News: Merge, which is considered to be one of the most important Ethereum updates to date, immediately reduced the power consumption of the network by 99.9%. On September 15, Blockchain Ethereum switched from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) to turn into a greener Blockchain. The result was an immediate and sharp decline in the total energy consumption of the Ethereum network. Before the Merge update, in 2022, Ethereum's energy consumption ranged from 46.31 TWh to 93.98 TWh per year. The lowest energy consumption for Ethereum was recorded on December 26, 2019 and was 4.75 TWh per year. Ethereum's energy consumption has dropped by more than 99.9% since October 15, and is still very low. As a result, the network's carbon footprint is now 0.1 million tones of CO2 (MtCO2) per year. On a per transaction basis, the electricity consumption is just 0.03 kWh and the carbon footprint is 0.01 kgCO2, which is comparable to the energy used while watching YouTube for two hours. Despite the celebration of Ethereum's transition to PoS, community members have raised concerns about chain centralization and higher regulatory scrutiny. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen making a local pull-back on the H4 time frame chart after the 24% rally hit the level of $1,663. The breakout was strong and might extend even higher as long as the pull-back will not drop more than 7% (price and time overbalance could be made if price drops more than 7%). The momentum on the H4 time frame chart is currently coming off overbought conditions and is approaching the level of fifty. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,513 and the level of $1,593 will now act as the intraday technical resistance. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,647 WR2 - $1,1612 WR1 - $1,596 Weekly Pivot - $1,578 WS1 - $1,561 WS2 - $1,543 WS3 - $1,509 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298991
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Is More Likely To See A Pull Back

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Is More Likely To See A Pull Back

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 31.10.2022 13:43
Blue lines- Fibonacci retracement levels Ethereum has most probably completed the rise from $1,191. I believe that the most likely scenario is for price to make at least a pull back towards $1,490 from current levels of $1,618. Short-term support is at $1,563. Price is most probably forming a lower high and a new downward move will come soon. Upside potential is limited. The RSI has already provided us with a bearish divergence and that is why I think it is more likely to see a pull back than a continuation of the up trend. Downside target is at $1,490 and at $1,370. A break below $1,370 would be a bearish signal that bulls do not want to see. We are neutral Ethereum if not bearish.     Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299056
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

The First Digital Indian Rupee (INR) Pilot Program | The Ethereum Is Currently Testing The Technical Resistance

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.11.2022 08:41
Crypto Industry News: The Reserve Bank of India announced on Tuesday that it will launch the first digital rupee pilot program "to be used on a case by case basis", starting with the broadly understood wholesale sector. The wholesale sector includes financial institutions such as banks and interbank transactions such as securities settlement and inter-currency payments. The aim of the pilot program is to start testing the settlement of transactions on the secondary market on government securities. Central bank officials are testing whether the integration of the central bank's digital currency (CBDC) with the domestic financial system can help increase the efficiency of the interbank market and reduce the associated transaction costs. According to the bank, having a digital rupee system "would anticipate the need for a settlement guarantee infrastructure for collateral to reduce settlement risk." After the system has been tested, additional pilots will be launched to test other types of wholesale and cross-border payments using the knowledge gathered during the trials. A total of nine banks will participate in the pilot test, including State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, IDFC First Bank and HSBC. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a 7% pull-back from the rally high located at $1,663. The market is currently testing the technical resistance located at the level of $1,571 and in a case of a breakout, the next target is the rally high. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart had bounced from the level of fifty and points to the upside already. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,513 and the level of $1,593 will now act as the intraday technical resistance. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,647 WR2 - $1,1612 WR1 - $1,596 Weekly Pivot - $1,578 WS1 - $1,561 WS2 - $1,543 WS3 - $1,509 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-02 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299169
Now The Ethereum Market Is On The Monthly Highs Trying

Vitalik Buterin's Statement That Crypto Is Better Than Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.11.2022 08:51
Crypto Industry News: As digital assets continue to fight crypto after a massive sell-off across the crypto space, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said crypto is still a better investment than gold. Many industry pundits expected gold to do much better amid stubbornly high global inflation. However, the precious metal has been under pressure from the strong US dollar and higher government bond yields, which are rising in light of the aggressive tightening policy pursued by the Federal Reserve. In a recent tweet, Buterin criticized gold as a decentralized asset touted as a replacement for traditional money, stating that cryptocurrency is a better investment option. Co-founder Ether said gold is "incredibly inconvenient", "difficult to use" and "doesn't support secure storage options like multisig." Buterin said the precious metal is especially difficult to deal with "transactions with untrusted parties." According to him, "gold has less adoption than crypto, so crypto is a better option." Buterin's comment was in response to New York Times bestselling author Soonish, Zach Weinersmith, who questioned the superiority of cryptocurrencies over gold. Weinersmith asked why not choose gold, looking for an alternative to centralized power for money. The discussion on the size of cryptocurrencies in relation to gold has been going on since Bitcoin's debut in global salons. And it was not finally settled by either party. Gold supporters hold out bravely, and central banks around the world prefer to accumulate gold in vaults over Bitcoin. Buterin seems to have forgotten one big advantage of gold over BTC. Gold can be transferred without a trace, but not Bitcoin. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a 7% pull-back from the rally high located at $1,663. The market keeps trading below the technical resistance located at the level of $1,594 and below the local trend line as well. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart has broken below the level of fifty and points to the downside. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,513 and the level of $1,594 will now act as the intraday technical resistance. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,647 WR2 - $1,1612 WR1 - $1,596 Weekly Pivot - $1,578 WS1 - $1,561 WS2 - $1,543 WS3 - $1,509 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299348
Scottie Pippen (Basketball Player) Received A Personalized NFT

MoneyGram Allows Users To Access Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) And Litecoin (LTC)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.11.2022 09:14
Crypto Industry News: MoneyGram International, a global peer-to-peer payment company, announced the launch of a new service that allows US users of the MoneyGram mobile app to buy, sell and store cryptocurrencies. Users can use the MoneyGram app to access Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC). The company indicated that it intends to add support for additional tokens in 2023. It also signaled that it will seek expansion into markets, which is allowed by global regulations. This announcement is the latest cryptocurrency initiative adopted by the company as part of its vision to increase cryptocurrency adoption by reviving "real-world cryptocurrency and blockchain use cases." Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a 10% pull-back from the rally high located at $1,663 and keeps going lower. The market keeps trading below the technical resistance located at the level of $1,594 and below the local trend line. The bulls tried to rally, but made only a false breakout above the local trend line and the market reversed lower. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart has broken below the level of fifty and points to the downside. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,513 and the level of $1,594 will now act as the intraday technical resistance. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,647 WR2 - $1,1612 WR1 - $1,596 Weekly Pivot - $1,578 WS1 - $1,561 WS2 - $1,543 WS3 - $1,509 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299533
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

Instagram Will Enable The Sale Of NFT | The Ethereum Has Been Seen Bouncing

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.11.2022 09:26
Crypto Industry News: The social media giant - Instagram - announced that as part of its partnership with Polygon, it will launch a market dedicated to trading in non-exchangeable NFT tokens. The marketplace will allow users to mint and sell the tokens they have created. Instagram joins forces with Polygon On Thursday, November 3, the social media giant announced that it would soon enable its users to mint NFT tokens on its platform. The platform will also launch a dedicated market for trading this type of tokens. Initially, Instagram will allow NFT to be sold through its app. Later, users will be redirected to an external market where they can sell their digital works. Moreover, Instagram will release a new toolkit that will aim to help users navigate the newly launched market. They will be used to knock out and sell NFT. As part of this, the platform joined forces with Polygon, a network that scales transactions taking place in the Ethereum blockchain. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the technical support located at $1,513, but the bulls keep trading below the technical resistance located at the level of $1,594 and below the local trend line. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart has broken above the level of fifty, so the bullish attempt to break out higher is being supported by the momentum increase. The first target for bulls is seen at %1,663. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,513 and the level of $1,594 will now act as the intraday technical resistance. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,647 WR2 - $1,1612 WR1 - $1,596 Weekly Pivot - $1,578 WS1 - $1,561 WS2 - $1,543 WS3 - $1,509 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299717
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

There Are No Positive Signs For The Cryptocurrency Market

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 04.11.2022 13:02
Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency market seems to have been in a cyclical downturn. According to data from the Statista portal, the capitalization of the entire market has fallen by about 58% since the beginning of the year, from $2.3 trillion to $0.97 trillion. Still, in terms of capitalization, bitcoin tops the list, accounting for about 40% of the cryptocurrency market's turnover, according to Coingecko statistics. Additionally, more than 90% of all 21 million bitcoins have already been dug up. The biggest winners since the beginning of 2022 among the TOP 200 according to the current capitalization of the Cryptorank portal are: BinaryX (116% YTD) Trust Wallet Token (57% YTD) ABBC coin (31% YTD) Bitgert (15% YTD) UNUS SED LEO (14% YTD). Green cryptocurrencies? After numerous votes and statistics regarding the CO2 emissivity of the system for digging cryptocurrencies, of which bitcoin is one, many projects have decided to change their computing architecture to "Proof of Storage" or "Proof of Stake." The largest project that has done this is Ethereum. It is estimated that ETH's energy consumption has decreased by 99.99%. Additional examples of green cryptocurrencies include: Cardano (-81% y/y)., Stellar (-67% y/y), and IOTA (-80% y/y). The most volatile cryptocurrencies since the beginning of 2022, according to the Cryptorank portal, are:  Bankera (OLD) (41990% YTD) Tierion (15588% YTD) Insolar (12286% YTD) smARTOFGIBING (4890% YTD). AREON (4027% YTD) As it turns out, the current year has been extremely difficult for the broad market. Someone could get the feeling that cryptocurrencies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of low interest rates and global additions. Presently, they seem to appear as one of the biggest casualties. Additionally, this seems not to be helped by the damaged confidence towards stablecoins. Until countries change their monetary policies and attitudes towards the cryptocurrency market, there seem to be no positive signs for them. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Weekly What might 2023 bring? According to current interest rate market assumptions, 2023 could see stabilization in U.S. interest rates above 5 percent. At that time, inflation could also fall below the interest rate. This could, in theory, bring calm to the financial markets. Meanwhile, bitcoin could begin a new halving cycle, which will take place in 2024. Perhaps the current cyclical downturn comes to an end by 2022, and 2023 may be more kind to cryptocurrency holders. Grzegorz Drozdz, Junior Market Analyst at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Epic Games and Lego Group are collaborating to build a metaverse. Ubisoft is partnering with Reality Labs to create a NFT collection

Top Creators In The NFT Market | Instagram And NFT | The Expansion Of GameStop

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 04.11.2022 11:56
New Project Spotlight NFT Collectibles [LIVE] The “Visa Masters of Movement” auction on Crypto.com NFT features digital art inspired by iconic goals from five legendary footballers that have been minted as unique NFTs. Fans can create their own personalised collectibles on a digital pitch at the FIFA Fan Festival™ in Doha, Qatar. [COMING SOON] Crypto.com signs an MOU for NFT collaboration with A Story. With this agreement, the two companies will cooperate on promoting NFT projects based on productions by A Story. [COMING SOON] “Dimensions of Perception” features Igor Martins’s impressions on reality, dreams, visions, memories, and sensations. Martins seeks to create relationships between the physical and metaphysical world. The drop will go live on 10 November in Crypto.com NFT. Blockchain Games [LIVE] Cronos game Defira allows players to earn Fira while becoming a Defiraverse legend. The main character, Fiera, needs an army and is looking to recruit players’ heroes. [COMING SOON] The Frontier test for Cronos game Zoids Wild NFT Arena will begin on 10 November. Players who sign up for the Frontier Test are able to play for $20,000 in prizes. [COMING SOON] The Cronos Labs Accelerator Cohort 2 has opened its registration until 28 November 2022. The Accelerator will be supporting projects across the verticals of Web3 gaming, SocialFi, and NFTs with investments, mentorship, and workshops. NFT Metrics The following table shows select top creators (by weekly sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Floor Price (USD)Sample OpenSea Art Gobblers $15,300,000(31 Oct launch) $15,290 Crypto.com NFT Art Blocks $6,500,000(+49%) $163 OpenSea CryptoPunks $5,818,000(-12%) $101,450 Crypto.com NFT Bored Ape Yacht Club $2,500,000(-24%) $113,000 Minted VVS Miner Mole $94,000(-13%) $333 Minted Argonauts $65,000(-72%) $89 Platform OpenSea Collection Art Gobblers Sales Volume (USD) $15,300,000(31 Oct launch) Floor Price (USD) $15,290 Sample Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Art Blocks Sales Volume (USD) $6,500,000(+49%) Floor Price (USD) $163 Sample Platform OpenSea Collection CryptoPunks Sales Volume (USD) $5,818,000(-12%) Floor Price (USD) $101,450 Sample Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Bored Ape Yacht Club Sales Volume (USD) $2,500,000(-24%) Floor Price (USD) $113,000 Sample Platform Minted Collection VVS Miner Mole Sales Volume (USD) $94,000(-13%) Floor Price (USD) $333 Sample Platform Minted Collection Argonauts Sales Volume (USD) $65,000(-72%) Floor Price (USD) $89 Sample Blockchain Game Metrics The following table shows select top games by weekly Unique Active Wallets (UAW): GameBlockchain(s)UAWVolumeLogo Splinterlands Hive, Wax 291K(-3%) $5K Trickshot Blitz Flow 115K(-30%) $79K Farmers World WAX 95K(-5%) $17K Axie Infinity Ronin, ETH 62K(-2%) $14M Game Splinterlands Blockchain(s) Hive, Wax UAW 291K(-3%) Volume $5K Logo Game Trickshot Blitz Blockchain(s) Flow UAW 115K(-30%) Volume $79K Logo Game Farmers World Blockchain(s) WAX UAW 95K(-5%) Volume $17K Logo Game Axie Infinity Blockchain(s) Ronin, ETH UAW 62K(-2%) Volume $14M Logo Source: DappRadar Gaming Token Performance The total market cap for gaming tokens now stands at US$8.42 billion, up +17% from last week.  From 14-18 November in Bonifacio Global City, Metro Manila, the Philippine Web3 Festival will see founders, developers, and gamers convene in the NFT gaming space. The festival is organised by Yield Guild Games (YGG) and BlockchainSpace (BSPC). News Highlights The Minted launchpad is now live, enabling creators to mint NFT collections on both Ethereum and Cronos. Collectors can discover the latest and diverse array of NFT collections on both networks. Instagram users will soon be able to mint and sell NFTs. The latest update will enable creators to make their own digital collectibles and sell them both on and off Instagram, giving them a toolkit for creating, displaying, and selling NFTs. GameStop extends its NFT Store to ImmutableX, granting access to collectibles on an additional network. The expansion is expected to reach tens of millions of customers and will allow access to major Web3 games such as Gods Unchained, Guild of Guardians, and Illuvium. Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile.
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

The Ethereum Market Has Made A New Local High

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.11.2022 09:45
Crypto Industry News: Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin has unveiled a new version of his project's development plan. Other milestones on the Ethereum Roadmap include: The Surge, The Scourge, The Verge, The Purge, and The Splurge. It aims to improve resistance to censorship and network decentralization. Ethereum's new plans were revealed in a Twitter post on November 5. After Ethereum's transition to the proof-of-stake (PoS) algorithm on September 15, Ethereum entered the second stage - The Surge, with the goal of producing 100,000 transactions per second. The updated technical roadmap now introduces The Scourge as a new third stage, followed by the previously known phases: The Verge, The Purge, and The Splurge. According to the Ethereum roadmap, The Scourge's goal is to "provide a reliable and credibly neutral transaction enablement system and avoid centralization and other threats associated with the MEV [Miner Extractable Value] protocols." Buterin previously described a credibly neutral mechanism as one that "does not discriminate against any specific individual." He also confirmed the update "The Verge" which will now include the integration of Succinct Non-Interactive Argument of Knowledge (SNARK) technology with Ethereum. The addition of SNARK will add much-needed privacy features to the Ethereum network while allowing anonymous transactions to be tracked. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $1,665, made a PinBar candlestick and immediatley reversed towards the technical support seen at $1,594 (now it will act as a technical resistance). The bearish pressure is still high and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,502. The momentum is weak and negative already on the H4 time frame chart, so the down move might continue lower. In order to extend the recent impressive rally and reverse the trend to the up trend the market must break above the last swing high seen at $1,785. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,635 WR2 - $1,605 WR1 - $1,587 Weekly Pivot - $1,575 WS1 - $1,557 WS2 - $1,544 WS3 - $1,514 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-08 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299888
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

How To Manage The Risk Of A Cryptocurrency Portfolio

Binance Academy Binance Academy 07.11.2022 10:05
TL;DR Risk management is an essential part of investing and trading responsibly. Risk management strategies can reduce your portfolio's overall risk in various ways. For example, you may diversify your investments, hedge against financial events, or implement simple stop-loss and take-profit orders. Introduction It's a well-known fact that investors and traders look to minimize risk. Even if your risk tolerance is high, you'll still, in some way, weigh the risk of your investments versus the payoff. However, there's more to risk management than just choosing less risky trades or investments. A comprehensive toolset of risk management strategies is available, many of which are suitable for beginners, too. Learn more on Binance.com What is risk management? Risk management entails predicting and identifying financial risks involved with your investments to minimize them. Investors then employ risk management strategies to help them manage their portfolio's risk. A critical first step is assessing your current exposure to risks and then building your strategies and plans around them. Risk management strategies Risk management strategies are plans and strategic actions traders and investors implement after identifying investment risks. These strategies reduce risk and can involve a wide range of financial activities. Some examples include taking out loss insurance and diversifying your portfolio across asset classes. In addition to active risk management practices, it is important to understand general risk management planning. There are four general planning strategies you can work with. Risk Management planning stratergies Acceptance: Deciding to take on the risk of investing in an asset but not spending money to avoid it as the potential loss isn't significant. Transference: Transferring the risk of an investment to a third party at a cost. Avoidance: Not investing in an asset with potential risk. Reduction: Reducing the financial consequences of a risky investment by diversifying across your portfolio. This could be within the same asset class or even across industries and assets. Why is a risk management strategy important in crypto? It's common knowledge that crypto, as an asset class, is one of the higher-risk investments available to the average investor. Prices have proven to be volatile, projects can crash overnight, and the technology behind blockchain can be challenging for newcomers to understand. With crypto moving rapidly, it's imperative to employ sound risk management practices and strategies to reduce your exposure to potential risks. This is also an essential step to becoming a successful and responsible trader. Strategy #1: Consider the 1% rule The 1% rule is a simple risk management strategy that entails not risking more than 1% of your total capital on an investment or trade. If you have $10,000 to invest and want to adhere to the 1% rule, there are a few ways to do so.  One would be to purchase $1,000 worth of bitcoin (BTC) and set a stop-loss or stop-limit order to sell at $9,900. Here, you would cut your losses at 1% of your total investment capital ($100). You could also purchase $100 of ether (ETH) without setting a stop-loss order, as you would only lose a maximum of 1% of your total capital if the price of ETH were to drop to 0. The 1% rule doesn't affect the size of your investments but the amount you are willing to risk on an investment. The 1% rule is especially important for crypto users due to the market's volatility. It can be easy to get greedy, and some investors may put too much into one investment and even suffer heavy losses expecting their luck to turn. Strategy #2: ​​Setting stop-loss and take-profit points A stop-loss order sets a pre-determined price for an asset at which the position will close. The stop price is set below the current price and, when triggered, helps protect against further losses. A take-profit order works the opposite way, setting a price at which you want to close your position and lock in a certain profit. Stop-loss and take-profit orders help you manage your risk in two ways. First, they can be set up in advance and will be executed automatically. There's no need to be available 24/7, and your pre-set orders will be triggered if prices are particularly volatile. This also allows you to set realistic limits for the losses and profits you can take.  It’s better to set these limits in advance rather than in the heat of the moment. While it can be strange to think of take-profit orders as part of risk management, you shouldn't forget that the longer you wait to take profit, the higher the risk the market could fall again while waiting for an  additional upside. Strategy #3: Diversify and hedge Diversifying your portfolio is one of the most popular and fundamental tools to reduce your overall investment risk. A diversified portfolio won't be too heavily invested in any asset or asset class, minimizing the risk of heavy losses from one particular asset or asset class. For instance, you may hold a variety of different coins and tokens, as well as provide liquidity and loans. Hedging is a slightly more advanced strategy to protect gains or minimize losses by purchasing another asset. Usually, these assets are inversely correlated. Diversification can be a type of hedge, but perhaps the most well-known example is futures. A futures contract lets you lock in a price for an asset at a future date. Imagine, for instance, you believe bitcoin's price will tumble, so you decide to hedge against this risk and open a futures contract to sell BTC for $20,000 in three months. If bitcoin’s price does indeed fall to $15,000 three months later, you will profit from your futures position.  It's worth remembering that futures contracts are settled financially, and you don't have to deliver the coins physically. In this case, the person on the other side of your contract would pay you $5,000 (the difference between the spot price and the futures price), and you would have hedged against the risk of bitcoin’s price falling. As mentioned, the crypto world is a volatile one. However, there are still opportunities to diversify within this asset class and use hedging opportunities. Diversification in crypto is much more crucial than in more traditional financial markets with less volatility. Strategy #4: Have an exit strategy ready Having an exit strategy is a simple but effective method for minimizing the risk of heavy losses. By sticking to the plan, you can take profits or cut losses at a pre-determined point. Often, it's easy to want to keep going when making gains or to put too much faith in a cryptocurrency even when prices are falling. Getting caught up in hype, maximalism, or a trading community can also cloud your decision-making. One way of successfully implementing an exit strategy is to use limit orders. You can set them to automatically trigger at your limit price, whether you want to take profit or set a maximum loss.  Strategy #5: Do Your Own Research (DYOR) DYOR is an integral risk-reduction strategy for any investor. In the Internet age, it's easier than ever to conduct your own research. Before investing in a token, coin, project, or other asset, you must do your due diligence. It's key that you check essential information about a project, such as its white paper, tokenomics, partnerships, roadmap, community, and other fundamentals. However, misinformation spreads quickly, and anyone can submit their opinions or online as facts. When conducting research, consider where you're getting your information and the context in which it's presented. Shilling is commonplace, and projects or investors can spread false, biased, or promotional news as if it were sincere and factual. Closing thoughts With the five risk management strategies outlined, you'll have an effective tool kit to help reduce your portfolio's risk. Even employing simple methods that cover most areas will help you invest more responsibly. At the other end of the scale, there's potential to create risk management plans with more advanced, in-depth strategies.  To dive deeper into the topic, refer to the following articles: How to Manage Risk and Trade Responsibly | Binance Support What Is the Risk/Reward Ratio and How to Use It | Binance Academy  3 Reasons Why Binance Futures Is The Preferred Hedging Venue For Traders    
There Are Many Ways To Join A Crypto Community

Active Cryptocurrency Wallets Increased In October

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.11.2022 11:25
Bitcoin and Ethereum picture There is a little bit for everyone in this move. The bulls record new, higher local highs and higher lows. On the other hand, the bears see that the recovery in Bitcoin is by no means gaining strength, and the rate remains tightly below the 200-week average. Ethereum added 0.9% over the week to $1610. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 rose from 3.1% (Cardano) to 11.9% (BNB). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 2.8% for the week, to $1.05 trillion, but by Monday, had rolled back 1.9% to $1.03. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 6 points for the week, to 40 and remains in "fear" mode. Cryptocurrency Market News  Decentralised application tracking platform DappRadar reported that the number of active cryptocurrency wallets increased by 7% in October compared to the previous month, which may indicate the end of the crypto winter. According to ForkLog, trading volume on leading cryptocurrency exchanges fell 25% in October to its lowest level since December 2020. Bitcoin miners' total revenue in October was up 7% compared to the previous month. The share of public miners in the BTC hashtag reached 25%. The European Parliament has postponed until February next year a final vote on the MiCA cryptocurrency regulation bill. The extensive and technically complex document must be translated into 24 official languages. Goldman Sachs is partnering with Coin Metrics and MSCI to introduce a tool called Datonomy that allows investors to track cryptocurrency market movements and quickly analyse the digital asset ecosystem.
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

The Bearish Pressure Is Still High In The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.11.2022 11:48
Crypto Industry News: Jack Dorsey, one of the founders and former CEO of Twitter, is preparing a new social networking site - Bluesky Social. It will be a place for those who do not like the fact that the first platform was bought by Elon Musk. According to the creators, Bluesky Social is to be the first decentralized social network. What does this mean in practice? This is not known yet. It is possible, however, that it will mean a continuation of Dorsey's experiments with blockchain and cryptocurrencies. When will the portal be launched? You won't have to wait very long for this event. The Bluesky Social app is currently in a test version. Its capabilities are tested by a limited group of users. However, is talking about "new Twitter" justified? In addition, is such an application valid today? First of all, remember that similar attempts to beat Twitter's nose (back in the reign of Dorsey) have already taken place. Rather, they ended in failure. At this point, it is enough to mention Truth Social, the project behind which is Donald Trump, the former US president, whose Twitter account has been blocked. The Polish Albicla, which was supposed to be a social networking site for the right, also belongs to the group of not very successful clones of Twitter or Facebook. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $1,665, made a PinBar candlestick and immediatley started a dynamic sell-off that terminated at the level of $1,533 after 14% drop. The bearish pressure is still high and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,502. The momentum is weak and negative already on the H4 time frame chart, so the down move might continue lower. In order to extend the recent impressive rally and reverse the trend to the up trend the market must break above the last swing high seen at $1,785. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,635 WR2 - $1,605 WR1 - $1,587 Weekly Pivot - $1,575 WS1 - $1,557 WS2 - $1,544 WS3 - $1,514 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.       Relevance up to 11:00 2022-11-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300085
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum(ETH) Prices Are Being Pushed Closer To New Lows

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.11.2022 09:41
Crypto Industry News: Cryptocurrency rates are dropping quite sharply as investors' concerns about the solvency of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange and the state of customer funds are pushing BTC and ETH prices closer to new lows, and the potential possibility of spilling into other markets negatively affects the entire cryptocurrency market. Earlier that day, Bitcoin BTC, the Binance BNB cryptocurrency, Ethereum ETH, FTX FTT token, and Solana SOL experienced a spike in the news that Binance would take over FTX, but the rebound was short-lived and ended quickly. After the Binance FTX news came out, BNB looked like the winner of the day, but the overall market crisis did not spare the stock token, which is currently $ 328, reflecting a loss of 2.6%. Concerns about the FTX stock exchange saw the market plummet after Binance's initial LOI for FTX spurred the markets to rise. According to reports, FTX was apparently trying to raise $ 6 billion in funding to fill a gap on its balance sheet, potentially putting the deal at risk. The cryptocurrency industry and regulators have long disagreed due to various misunderstandings or distrust of the actual use case of digital assets. Without a working framework for regulating the crypto sector, different countries and states have tons of conflicting rules about the classification of cryptocurrencies as assets and exactly what constitutes a legal payment system. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $1,266 in form of a Pin Bar candlestick and immediately started a dynamic bounce. Nevertheless, the bearish pressure is still high and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,191 (yearly low's). The momentum is weak and negative already on the H4 time frame chart, so the down move might continue lower. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,343. In order to extend the recent impressive rally and reverse the trend to the up trend the market must break above the last swing high seen at $1,785. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,635 WR2 - $1,605 WR1 - $1,587 Weekly Pivot - $1,575 WS1 - $1,557 WS2 - $1,544 WS3 - $1,514 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300258
Anyone can become a validator without specialized equipment - FXMAG.COM explains The Ethereum Merge

Anyone can become a validator without specialized equipment. What is The Ethereum Merge? - our team explains

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 07.11.2022 15:18
The biggest blockchain platform, Ethereum as well as the highest capitalized altcoin (ETH) received a groundbreaking update called The Merge. Under it, the Ethereum network now no longer needs to rely on the work of digital miners mining ETH tokens, in addition the platform has also changed its consensus algorithm to Proof-of-Stake.   What does this really mean for the average network user, what does this process involve and will Ethereum change as a result of the upgrade? Could such a wide-ranging change to the network go wrong?     Why did the ETH mining have to stop?   The Ethereum network was launched exactly on July 30, 2015 and only a dozen or so days later, in August of the same year, one of the first source code updates was introduced, which implemented the so-called Difficulty bombs . It is an algorithm that, at a specific moment of "detonation", is to rapidly raise the difficulty of mining in the Ethereum network to a level where further mining of ETH will be completely unprofitable, or even impossible. This moment has been described as a symbolic "Ice Age", after which miners will have nothing to look for in the Ethereum network, which is tantamount to abandoning the Proof of Work consensus algorithm. Today, hardly anyone remembers that the original bomb of difficulty was supposed to explode in the middle of 2017, thus starting the process of transitioning the Ethereum network to Proof of Stake using a protocol called Casper. As you know, nothing like that happened, because changing the consensus algorithm in such a complicated protocol as Ethereum was then turned out to be much more difficult than the developers expected. So it was necessary to make a change to the source code that delayed the activation of the Difficulty Bomb. The first such update, called Byzantium, took place in mid-October 2017. Ultimately, the bomb of difficulty was delayed four more times (including twice last year). This time, however, the moment has come - the bomb of difficulties, after five years of delay, was finally detonated on Thursday, September 15 in the early hours of the morning. Thus, the Ethereum network has now switched to a completely new consensus algorithm, operating in the Proof of Stake model. This is an important change because so far Ethereum was the second Proof of Work network after bitcoin in terms of computing power.   Of course, the departure from mining ETH is no surprise, the Ethereum network was designed from the beginning to eventually switch to a Proof of Stake algorithm. However, many miners had found a sort of "comfort zone" in Ethereum over the years and were opposed to changing the consensus algorithm. Sam Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, when asked about what the miners of ETH should do once The Merge had occurred, replied that a great alternative for them will be, among others, Ethereum Classic.   A certain threat to the integrity of the Ethereum network may be art nouveau projects such as Ethereum PoW, which brings together miners who oppose the transition to Proof of Stake and want to continue digging ETH, thus separating from the main Ethereum chain (the Ethereum PoW hard fork took place in Wednesday morning).   Why is Ethereum's transition to Proof of Stake so important?   It is already known that the change of the Ethereum consensus algorithm was inevitable and - despite many years of delays - it finally happened. But why was Proof of Work not future-proof for the Ethereum network?   First of all, it concerns issues related to scalability, which in the Proof of Work model is simply too low (depending on how it is calculated, it is determined at approximately 25 transactions per second). It is worth remembering that the Ethereum network is completely different from, for example, bitcoin itself. Ethereum is much more extensive, and on the Ethereum blockchain (in addition to the ETH itself) there are thousands of large smart contracts and decentralized applications and tokens that generate network traffic and need more and more bandwidth. The problems of Ethereum clogging and growing transaction fees resulting from low bandwidth have been occurring in the entire ecosystem for years, although the first real stress-test for Ethereum was the explosion in popularity of the decentralized application with NFT CryptoKitties, which at the end of 2017 was able to "clog up" the entire network. Staying with the Proof of Work consensus algorithm would greatly reduce the potential for future network scalability enhancement. However, that's not the only problem.   Proof of Work for a project of such a large scale would be more and more difficult to maintain over time, mainly due to the systematically increasing electricity consumption. Earlier this week, the Ethereum network recorded an annual electricity consumption of almost 84 TWh (terawatt hours), which puts it on a par with Finland. The high dynamics of the increase in energy consumption of the Ethereum network is evidenced by the fact that a year ago it amounted to less than 52 TWh per year, and at the peak of the boom at the turn of 2017/18 it was less than 17 TWh per year. And it is not only about environmental issues - in the environment of more expensive energy resources and the growing threat of electricity shortages, maintaining such a power-consuming and ineffective network is also not very prospective and socially irresponsible. In fact, all these problems are solved through the switch to Proof of Stake, which reduced the energy consumption of the entire Ethereum network by over 99% overnight.   What is The Merge about?   The very moment referred to as The Merge marked the transition from the Proof of Work consensus algorithm to the Proof of Stake. But how did this come about? The very process of changing the rules of consensus in such an extensive network as Ethereum is very complicated, hence many years of delays and extensive tests. In December 2020, the so-called Beacon Chain , an independent Ethereum test network based on the Proof of Stake consensus algorithm, which currently houses over 427,000. validation nodes, called validators, which secure the network of over 14.445 million ETH units. At the moment of The Merge, the aforementioned difficulty bomb "detonated", which made the miners stop digging ETH. The next transaction blocks will already be added to the Ethereum network based on the consensus between the validators, i.e. based on the Proof of Stake. The Merge process itself is therefore an amalgamation of the main Ethereum network with the Beacon Chain, which has previously acted as a test network.   Proof of Stake in Ethereum 2.0   After updating The Merge, the aforementioned validators were responsible for approving transactions and creating new ETH units, which are a reward for their work. It is no longer a  digital spoil, but a reward for staking funds on your approval node. Anyone can become a validator without specialized equipment. The condition is to freeze at least 32 ETH and run a full node in the Ethereum network, of course, there are other ways to staking without this amount and without having to set up a full node, such as putting funds into a smart contract with a staking pool or doing it on a centralized exchange. Importantly, the validator's locked amount itself can be seized if the validator tries to break the rules of consensus and acts dishonestly (e.g. by trying to validate invalid transactions), in line with the principle that honestly running a node gives more benefits than trying to break the rules. This 32 ETH is the minimum threshold to launch your own approval node - the more funds we stack, the greater our rewards for block approval will be. However, the rates of return for staking will be lower than for mining ETH. After miners stop securing the Ethereum network, staking is expected to bring an annual rate of return close to 7% of the value of the frozen capital.   Read next: Facebook’s plan for large scale layoffs, the US dollar rally halted on Monday, Corporate America under investigation| FXMAG.COM   Will Ethereum upgrade reduce transaction fees and speed up the network?   One of the more frequently asked questions about The Merge is the amount of the transaction fees on the Ethereum network, which has always been a problem for the entire ecosystem. The question is absolutely justified - since the entry of Ethereum into phase 2.0 was such an important event, the question is whether or not it had a positive impact on the use of ETH? Unfortunately, The Merge itself did not introduce any changes that could lower the prices of Gas, which is used to cover transaction fees in the network. So the answer is simple - after The Merge and Ethereum's transition to Proof of Stake, trading fees did not drop on their own. The good news, however, is that this is only the first stage that opens the way to further network development - in 2023, sharding is to be introduced in the Ethereum network, i.e. a solution that allows the network of blocks to be divided multiple times into smaller fragments, which will rapidly increase the scalability of the network. According to Vitalik Buterina, sharding can increase Ethereum's throughput by up to 100 times. The implementation of sharding will also reduce transaction fees. From the perspective of transaction costs, an update (hard-fork) called Shanghai, which is planned for the first quarter of 2023, will also be important. It will introduce significant improvements to smart contracts, which should noticeably lower gas prices. However, the Shanghai hard fork itself is associated with the risk of a decline in ETH quotations. This is due to the fact that validators in the network will be able to withdraw their stacked funds only after its implementation. Their ETH (at least 32 for each validating node) will therefore be frozen for the next few months.   As for the reduction of transaction approval time after The Merge, the change was rather cosmetic. The update introduced a fixed block time of 12 seconds, while it is currently around 12-14 seconds, so it is not much of a noticeable change for the average Ethereum user.
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Meta Will Begin Cutting 11,000 Employees | A New Local Low In The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2022 10:19
Crypto Industry News: Facebook's parent company Meta will begin cutting 11,000 of its 87,000 employees on Wednesday morning, the company said on Tuesday. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg released a statement explaining why the company is making the cut and what went wrong in the development of the tech giant and social media: "We are basically making all of these changes for two reasons," he wrote. "Our revenue forecasts are lower than expected earlier this year, and we want to make sure we're operating efficiently with both Family of Apps and Reality Labs." Zuckerberg said he believed the prediction that the massive pandemic-induced rise in e-commerce would represent a lasting shift in consumer behavior, and invested the company's resources accordingly. "Unfortunately, it did not go as expected," he said. "Not only has online trading failed to return to previous trends, but the macroeconomic slowdown, increased competition and loss of ad signal have resulted in our revenues being much lower than expected." I made a mistake and I take responsibility for it. The company announced that the layoffs will affect every organization in Family of Apps and Reality Labs, but recruiting staff will be "disproportionately affected" by the company's extended job freeze, and that business teams will also be "cut more significantly." In addition to the layoffs, the largest in the company's history, Zuckerberg outlined several other austerity measures, including reducing budgets and benefits and reducing the company's presence in the real estate market. Zuckerberg said the company will focus its resources on "fewer high priority growth areas," including the AI engine, advertising and business platforms. The meta lost more than $ 80 billion in market value in October after it reported a profit of $ 4.4 billion, down 52 percent in the third quarter. On February 3, the company saw its biggest one-day slump in U.S. history, shedding $ 230 billion in market value after exceeding targets for Q4 2021. But despite investors and tech experts pointing to the company's exaggerated virtual reality hopes and investment as the main reason behind Meta's underperformance, Zuckerberg listed his "long-term meta-universe vision" among his top priorities for the future. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $1,077in and immediately started a dynamic bounce towards the level of $1,191. Nevertheless, the bearish pressure is still high and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $886 (yearly low's). The momentum is weak and negative already on the H4 time frame chart, so the down move might continue lower. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,191 - $1,219 (old demand zone, now will act as the supply zone). In order to extend the recent impressive rally and reverse the trend to the up trend the market must break above the last swing high seen at $1,785. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,635 WR2 - $1,605 WR1 - $1,587 Weekly Pivot - $1,575 WS1 - $1,557 WS2 - $1,544 WS3 - $1,514 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300443
WTI Oil Shows Signs of Short-Term Uptrend Amid Medium-Term Uptrend Phase

The US Dollar (USD) Suffered Heavy Losses | UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Grew

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 11.11.2022 09:05
The upbeat market mood remains intact on the last trading day of the week as investors cheer the soft inflation data from the US and news of China easing the Covid-related restrictions. The US Dollar Index continues to edge lower below 108.00 after having lost more than 2% on Thursday and global stock indices push higher. Bond markets in the US will be closed in observance of the Veterans Day holiday but Wall Street will operate at the usual hours. The US economic docket will feature the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey (preliminary) for November and investors will keep a close eye on central bank speakers ahead of the weekend. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Thursday that inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 7.7% on a yearly basis in October from 8% in September. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 6.3% from 6.6% in the same period. With both of these readings coming in below market expectations, the CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability of a 50 basis points Fed rate hike in December jumped above 80% from 50% earlier in the week. In turn, major equity indexes in the US registered impressive gains, the US Dollar suffered heavy losses and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declined toward 3.8%, losing nearly 7% on the day. US Inflation Analysis: Hiking is hard in the fog, Dollar set to decline (until the next CPI). Earlier in the day, China's National Health Commission announced that they have decided to reduce the required quarantine times for travellers and people who had close contact with identified Covid cases. The Shanghai Composite Index was last seen rising nearly 2% on the day and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up 6.8%. Reflecting the risk-positive market environment, US stock index futures are rising between 0.5% and 0.7%.  The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the third quarter, compared to the market expectation of 2.1%. Other data from the UK showed that Industrial Production expanded by 0.2% on a monthly basis in September. GBPUSD largely ignored the latest data and was last seen moving sideways slightly above 1.1700. EURUSD registered impressive gains on Thursday and continued to edge higher during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair was last seen trading at its highest level since mid-August slightly above 1.0200. USDJPY lost more than 400 pips on Thursday and touched its weakest level in seven weeks near 140.00 before staging a rebound on Friday. At the time of press, USDJPY was up 0.5% on the day at 141.65. Fueled by plunging US Treasury bond yields, gold price rose nearly 3% on Thursday and registered one of its largest one-day gains of the year. XAUSD is currently trading above $1,750 and it's up nearly 5% since the beginning of the week. Bitcoin gained 10% on Thursday after having lost more than 20% in the first half of the week. BTCUSD, however, seems to be having a difficult time gathering bullish momentum early Friday as markets keep a close eye on developments surrounding the FTX drama. As of writing, Bitcoin was down nearly 2% on the day at $17,250. Ethereum trades in negative territory at around $1,250 early Friday following Thursday's 17% gain. California financial regulator announces FTX investigation. Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos bounce as FTX CEO vows to do right by investors.
DPX Token Registered A 24-Hour Return Of 11.11%

The Venus Protocol Is Completely Controlled By The Community

Binance Academy Binance Academy 12.11.2022 10:52
TL;DR Venus Protocol is an algorithm-based money market system on the BNB Chain. It aims to allow users to lend and borrow cryptocurrency in a decentralized and secure way. The protocol is permissionless, so anyone can start using it by connecting crypto wallets like MetaMask. Venus Protocol's community owns and controls the protocol through its native governance token, XVS, which can be staked in the Venus Protocol Vault to earn token rewards. Introduction Decentralized finance (DeFi) has begun to offer an increasing number of services typically associated with traditional finance. With Venus Protocol, users can permissionlessly lend or borrow from a pool of assets, and suppliers of collateral can benefit from their passive funds. However, instead of a centralized player handling transactions, the protocol automates the process using technologies such as smart contracts. Learn more on Binance.com What is Venus Protocol and how does it work? Venus Protocol is an algorithmic money market and synthetic stablecoin protocol. Traditionally, the money market is an essential part of the economy that deals with short-term loan needs. Now, however, Venus is bringing decentralized finance (DeFi) lending and borrowing onto the BNB chain. It also allows collateral suppliers to mint the platform's native synthetic stablecoins (VAI) by over-collateralizing positions. Venus Protocol is a fork of Compound and MakerDAO. Both are Ethereum-based, with the first being a money market protocol and the second, a stablecoin minting protocol. Venus integrates these functions into one, allowing users to utilize the same collateral within one ecosystem, regardless of which function they use. You can think of the Venus Protocol as a permissionless lending environment. Firstly, it allows BNB Chain users with idle cryptocurrency to supply collateral to the network. Secondly, users who need more can borrow by pledging over-collateralized cryptocurrency. Lenders then receive compounded annual interest rates, while borrowers pay interest on their respective loans. The interest rates for lending and borrowing are set by the protocol in a curve yield that varies based on utilization. These rates are automated according to the demands of the specific market, such as BNB or ETH. However, the protocol’s governance process also sets minimum and maximum interest rate levels. Synthetic stablecoin minting takes place using vTokens, from the collateral users provide to the Venus Protocol. vTokens represent deposited collateral — for example, users receive vUSDT for supplying USDT, which they can later redeem for the underlying collateral. Users can also borrow up to 50% of the collateral value they have on the protocol from their vTokens to mint VAI. Venus Protocol determines stablecoin interest rates differently from how it does lending and borrowing interest rates. The interest rates for minting are fixed and only the protocol’s governance process is allowed to lower and raise these rates. The history of Venus Protocol Venus Protocol was founded by a project development team from global cryptocurrency credit card issuer Swipe, with Venus (XVS) launching in 2020. From the beginning, it aimed to bridge the gap between traditional finance and DeFi on the BNB Chain and provide users with an alternative application free from the issues they’d experienced on Ethereum. Though Swipe supported the development of the Venus Protocol, there were no XVS token pre-mines for developers, or founders. As such, XVS holders have complete control over the protocol and token. Venus Protocol redefines its rules according to community preferences. For example, the Venus V2 upgrade included higher VAI liquidation penalties. It also introduced fees for VAI minting and platform withdrawals, both of which were added to the Venus Reserves Treasury. Additionally, the upgrade included an airdrop of the native Venus Reward Token (VRT) to current XVS holders as a reward. What is possible on Venus Protocol? Venus Protocol enables users to permissionlessly lend and borrow from a pool of assets. Users can also mint stablecoins (VAI) with over-collateralized positions and participate in the protocol's governance. Lending Users can lend and earn changing yield on the assets they supply. Venus Protocol creates pools of these loaned cryptocurrencies using a smart contract and periodically distributes vTokens to them. This way, the protocol unlocks unused value that is already on the BNB Chain but doesn't have a lending market like Bitcoin and Litecoin do. Borrowing Venus Protocol utilizes an over-collateralized loan system that requires borrowers to pledge collateral before borrowing. For example, if Ethereum has a collateral value of 50%, users can borrow up to 50% of the value of their own ETH. They can then have a say in the collateral ratio through the protocol’s governance process. However, according to Venus Protocol’s white paper, the collateral value is typically around 40% to 75%. Users must exercise caution because if the collateral value falls too low, their position will be liquidated.  Minting stablecoins The minting and redemption of the synthetic stablecoin VAI is fixed at 1 USD, though its price can still fluctuate according to the supply and demand.  Venus Protocol users can mint the stablecoin using remaining collateral from previous vToken deposits. Furthermore, anyone can mint stablecoins without central authorities and use newly minted stablecoins for purposes such as earning yield on other DeFi projects. Governance Users can also influence the future of the Venus Protocol. The protocol is completely controlled by the community through its governance token XVS, which is a BEP-20 token that can be used for voting. Users can vote on a number of protocol-related issues, including improvements, adding new tokens to the protocol, adjusting interest rates, and reserving distribution schedule delegations. Venus Protocol also plans to build a product called Venus Vault that will enable users to lock governance tokens to improve the protocol’s anti-risk ability and distribute staking rewards. What makes Venus Protocol unique? Venus Protocol helps to bring common financial lending services to blockchain-based decentralized protocols, though it is not the first to do so — there are Ethereum-based DeFi applications with assets worth billions of dollars locked into them. However, these applications have their pain points, such as high costs, low network speed, and a lack of cryptocurrencies from other blockchains (e.g., XRP and Litecoin). Venus Protocol differs from many other money market protocols in that it enables the use of supplied collateral for not only borrowing, but also for minting stablecoins. In addition, users can earn yield from minted tokens, as opposed to other protocols that lock such tokens up in smart contracts, with no benefits from underlying assets. Venus Protocol eliminates the need to remove one’s own assets from a money market to mint stablecoins. Unlike many prominent stablecoins, Venus Protocol’s synthetic stablecoins are not backed by traditional financial assets or fiat but by a basket of other cryptocurrencies. Moreover, BNB Chain makes transactions fast and low-cost while providing a network of wrapped tokens and liquidity. Closing thoughts Venus Protocol combines the money market and stablecoin generation within the same protocol, which can benefit the crypto ecosystem by unlocking collateral. Furthermore, BNB Chain's speed and low transaction costs open these financial products to anyone who owns a cryptocurrency wallet. Now, people worldwide can borrow against, earn interest on, and supply collateral, as well as mint stablecoins on demand. Further reading What Is Qtum (QTUM)? What Is Band Protocol (BAND)? What Is NEXO (NEXO)? What Is BNB?
Epic Games and Lego Group are collaborating to build a metaverse. Ubisoft is partnering with Reality Labs to create a NFT collection

Bank Of Korea's Experiment About The Use Of Its CBDC To Purchase NFTs

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 13.11.2022 09:18
NFT Collectibles [COMING SOON] “Altered States” is a creation of Fran Rodríguez, a digital artist based in Barcelona. Fran is known for his striking images, depicting his interpretation of humanity’s place in the universe. This collection drops on 15 November, taking place at Crypto.com NFT. [COMING SOON] In Ali Jardine’s NFT collection, “Lucid State of Dreams”, she explores different types of consciousness along with birth, death, joy, fear, love, and earth magic. This drop on Crypto.com NFT includes 11 meditative animated pieces, and will begin on 22 November. Blockchain Games [LIVE] AstroGator: Reborn is a blockchain-based game by a veteran of the gaming industry—Game Hours. Starting on November 7, this newly launched play-to-earn (P2E) game will feature NFTs first launched by Crypto.com. [LIVE] CroSkulls, a game on the Cronos blockchain, has launched Seasonal Pet — Season 3. This new season features a water element pet (crab). The SkullCrabs will come in three different variants: Baby Crabs, Crabs, and DemonCyborg Crabs. NFT Metrics The following table shows select top creators (by weekly sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Floor Price (USD)Sample OpenSea CryptoPunks $5,134,000(+9%) $84,600 OpenSea Bored Ape Yacht Club $4,340,600(+104%) $77,300 Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $470,000(+93%) $2,200 Minted VVS Miner Mole $116,800(-2%) $399 Minted Argonauts $29,800(-1%) $84 Crypto.com NFT Cyber Cubs $17,100(+3%) $258 Platform OpenSea Collection CryptoPunks Sales Volume (USD) $5,134,000(+9%) Floor Price (USD) $84,600 Sample Platform OpenSea Collection Bored Ape Yacht Club Sales Volume (USD) $4,340,600(+104%) Floor Price (USD) $77,300 Sample Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Loaded Lions Sales Volume (USD) $470,000(+93%) Floor Price (USD) $2,200 Sample Platform Minted Collection VVS Miner Mole Sales Volume (USD) $116,800(-2%) Floor Price (USD) $399 Sample Platform Minted Collection Argonauts Sales Volume (USD) $29,800(-1%) Floor Price (USD) $84 Sample Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Cyber Cubs Sales Volume (USD) $17,100(+3%) Floor Price (USD) $258 Sample Blockchain Game Metrics The following table shows select top games by weekly Unique Active Wallets (UAW): GameBlockchain(s)UAWVolumeLogo Splinterlands Hive, Wax 278K(-4%) $4K Trickshot Blitz Flow 134K(+16%) $86K Axie Infinity Ronin, ETH 54K(-14%) $17M Solitaire Blitz Flow 43K(+36%) $63K Era7: Game of Truth BNB Chain 42K(+27%) $98K Game Splinterlands Blockchain(s) Hive, Wax UAW 278K(-4%) Volume $4K Logo Game Trickshot Blitz Blockchain(s) Flow UAW 134K(+16%) Volume $86K Logo Game Axie Infinity Blockchain(s) Ronin, ETH UAW 54K(-14%) Volume $17M Logo Game Solitaire Blitz Blockchain(s) Flow UAW 43K(+36%) Volume $63K Logo Game Era7: Game of Truth Blockchain(s) BNB Chain UAW 42K(+27%) Volume $98K Logo Source: DappRadar Gaming Token Performance The total market cap for gaming tokens now stands at US$7.0 billion, down -17% from last week. News Highlights OpenSea launches an on-chain tool to enforce NFT royalties. The royalty enforcement tool currently only applies to new NFT collections, while a decision will be made on existing collections on a later date. The Bank of Korea tested NFT trading during a 10-month-long experiment of a digital South Korean won. During the project, the bank tested the use of its CBDC to purchase NFTs. South Korea also plans to allow its citizens access to blockchain-powered digital IDs in 2024. Paris Saint-Germain forward Lionel Messi is joining the NFT trading card game Sorare as an investor and brand ambassador. In Sorare, players can trade digital player cards and manage teams of five in fantasy soccer tournaments. Recent Research Reports     Research Roundup Newsletter [October 2022] In this issue, we cover our recent Bloomberg Terminal integration, special research report for the Singapore Fintech Festival, and feature articles on NFT financialisation and utility. NFT Financialisation and Utility: An Overview As NFT utility grows, so does the potential to make money from them. Financialisation could help to achieve greater liquidity for and unlock the value of NFTs. NFT Utility: A Multifaceted Overview and Use Cases For NFTs to increase in value and be deemed viable economic and financial assets, they have to go beyond collectability and aesthetics. One way to tackle this is through utility.         Research Roundup Newsletter [October 2022] In this issue, we cover our recent Bloomberg Terminal integration, special research report for the Singapore Fintech Festival, and feature articles on NFT financialisation and utility.   NFT Financialisation and Utility: An Overview As NFT utility grows, so does the potential to make money from them. Financialisation could help to achieve greater liquidity for and unlock the value of NFTs.   NFT Utility: A Multifaceted Overview and Use Cases For NFTs to increase in value and be deemed viable economic and financial assets, they have to go beyond collectability and aesthetics. One way to tackle this is through utility. Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile.
Scottie Pippen (Basketball Player) Received A Personalized NFT

Scottie Pippen (Basketball Player) Received A Personalized NFT

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.11.2022 09:46
Crypto Industry News: Basketball player Scottie Pippen, who won six NBA championships with the Chicago Bulls in the 1990s, has his NFT. It resembles graphics associated with the cult CryptoPunks series. Scottie Pippen received a personalized NFT that works based on Arbitrum. The athlete tweeted a photo of himself wearing the number 33 jersey with an NFT avatar added next to it. The token was created via the Smolverse platform. The basketball player added that he is ready to test the next generation of NFT products. NFT graphics resemble images from the CryptoPunks collection, which were sales hits in 2021. Scotty Maurice Pippen, more commonly known as Scottie Pippen, is an American basketball player who plays as a small forward and is a six-time National Basketball Association champion. He played for the Chicago Bulls. In 2010, he was included in the Basketball Hall of Fame. James Naismith. He was also honored with a bronze statue unveiled at the United Center on April 7, 2011. Technical Market Outlook: The bulls had managed to retrace 38% of the last wave down on Ethereum and made a new local high at the level of $1,347. Nevertheless, the bearish pressure is still high and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $886 (yearly low's). The market has been seen moving down all weekend long as the momentum is still weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,343. In order to extend the recent impressive rally and reverse the trend to the up trend the market must break above the last swing high seen at $1,785. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,247 WR2 - $1,237 WR1 - $1,231 Weekly Pivot - $1,227 WS1 - $1,221 WS2 - $1,217 WS3 - $1,207 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-15 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300859
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

The Bearish Pressure On The Ethereum Market Is Still Strong

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.11.2022 09:40
Crypto Industry News: Recently, the market was informed that a wallet allegedly linked to Vitalik Buterin sold 3,000 ETH worth approximately USD 3.75 million on Saturday, November 12. ETH was converted to stablecoins via Uniswap. This quite fresh story has already been commented on by Evan Van Ness, one of the most important developers in the Ethereum community. Van Ness denied the reports and said Vitalik Buterin had told him that the wallet in question did not belong to him. Internet portals tried to reach Buterin directly for independent confirmation, however, still failed. Technical Market Outlook: The bearish pressure on Ethereum is still strong and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $886 (yearly low's). The market has been consolidating in a narrow range as the momentum is still weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,343 and the intraday technical support is seen at $1,191. In order to extend the recent impressive rally and reverse the trend to the up trend the market must break above the last swing high seen at $1,785. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,247 WR2 - $1,237 WR1 - $1,231 Weekly Pivot - $1,227 WS1 - $1,221 WS2 - $1,217 WS3 - $1,207 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301047
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

The Fundamental Interest In Ethereum Is Much Higher Than In Bitcoin

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.11.2022 13:18
Last week was one of the worst stretches for the crypto industry over the past two years. The main assets have updated local lows, and the market capitalization has decreased to $740 billion. Ethereum last week Quotes of the main altcoin also sank significantly following the results of the previous trading week. Ethereum fell in price from $1,650 and updated the local bottom around the round $1,000 mark. However, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has managed to attract the attention of big business. Ethereum was falling down to the level of $1,200, where stability appeared, which indicated the activation of buyers. Santiment confirm that the buying sentiment of the big business towards ETH has increased significantly during the market crash. Analysts noted that addresses holding 100,000–1,000,000 ETH bought more than 650,000 ETH at the peak of the market decline. In part, it was the activation of big capital that allowed Ethereum to slow down the fall near the $1,200 area and maintain the $1,000 level. A massive buyout of ETH/USD near $1,000 indicates the market's readiness to defend this frontier. In the medium term, this may mean that the local bottom of the main altcoin is formed precisely in the range of $1,000–$1,200. ETH/USD analysis The second key moment, showing the stability of ETH in comparison with Bitcoin, is a powerful attempt to form a bullish engulfing pattern on November 10th. The bulls failed but allowed the altcoin to gain a foothold above $1,200. Subsequently, Ethereum continued its local decline, following Bitcoin, but managed to maintain the $1,200 support zone. In the short term, the main target of the altcoin will be the line of $1,280–$1,350. If it breaks out of this zone, ETH will follow to the resistance level near $1,450. On the daily chart, the situation looks uncertain, as the potential of the bulls was exhausted after the retest of the $1,300 level. At the end of the current trading day, ETH is trying to storm the upper border of the $1,350 area, but technical metrics indicate the weakness of buyers. The MACD indicator on the daily chart is moving in a downward direction in the red zone. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator has formed a bullish crossover near the level of 35, and the RSI shows an increase in buying activity. The probability of a breakdown of $1,300 at the end of the current trading day is small since, before that, Ethereum had been moving near the $1,300 level for more than a month. In addition, the market is not in optimal conditions to maintain an upward momentum. Daily ETH trading volumes barely reach $13 billion. Results Ethereum needs a local pause to stabilize the situation and reduce the level of volatility. The fundamental interest in Ethereum is much higher than in Bitcoin at the current stage. Given this, it is likely that it is the altcoin that will resume the recovery movement towards the $1,500–$1,600 levels. In addition, do not forget that Glassnode experts record the largest increase in stablecoins on exchanges in history. Historically, the growth in the volume of stablecoins indicates the readiness of large capital for mass purchases. Given the growing open interest of "whales" in ETH, there is every reason to believe that altcoin will be the priority target for buying.     Relevance up to 10:00 2022-11-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327160
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Work On The CBDC Pilot Program Is In Full Swing

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2022 12:16
Crypto Industry News: While the eyes of the entire cryptocurrency world have recently turned to the stench caused by the demise of FTX, the work on introducing the biggest nemesis of supporters of financial freedom and anonymity, the infamous Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is in full swing. According to information published by the media, the largest banking giants (including Citigroup Inc, HSBC Holdings, Mastercard, Wells Fargo) in partnership with the New York branch of the FED are just starting a 12-week pilot CBDC program. According to information from representatives of the Innovation Center at the New York branch of the Federal Reserve Bank, the project is referred to as a working "regulated accountability network" and will be carried out in a test environment using simulated data. The official goal of the pilot program is to test whether banks will be able to accelerate payments using digital dollar tokens in a common database. Recently, the head of the New York Fed's market group, a certain Michelle Neal, admitted that the possibilities of speeding up the time of settlement in the foreign exchange markets thanks to CBDC look "really promising". Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen consolidating in a narrow range located between the levels of $1,219 - $1,281 as the traders await for a trigger of the next wave up or down. So far the bulls retraced above 38% of the last wave down and been capped at the local high seen at $1,347. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,219, $1,191 and $1,170 (H4 Pin Bar low). The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,281 and $1,343. Momentum on the H4 time frame chart remains bouncing up and down around the neutral level of fifty. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,247 WR2 - $1,237 WR1 - $1,231 Weekly Pivot - $1,227 WS1 - $1,221 WS2 - $1,217 WS3 - $1,207 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-11-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301241
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Discussions Whether Crypto Platforms Do Falsify Their Reports

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.11.2022 10:02
Crypto Industry News: The bankruptcy of the FTX exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried and the mysterious events related to it have recently electrified the cryptocurrency community from around the world. Once again, thousands of investors have lost their funds, and more bankruptcies are looming on the horizon, as both FTX and Alameda Research have sponsored many smaller, but also leading projects in the digital asset industry. To ensure the transparency and security of user funds, the largest crypto exchanges publish audits and reports of their portfolios en masse. The platform founded by CZ is one of the main drivers of the recent turmoil. Now, as one of the first, she decided to introduce clients to the complexity of her portfolio. How does he present himself? The funds are located in 65% on the Ethereum chain, and in 19.12% on the TRON network. Next are the Bitcoin blockchain (10.65%) and the popular BNB Chain (5.15%). The total amount in dollars is over 64.3 billion. The allocation of tokens seems to be very well thought out, because the list below shows only fundamentally strong projects. We could write for hours about the current state of the largest crypto exchanges. Currently, there are discussions whether the platforms do not falsify their reports, helping themselves temporarily in shaping the portfolio. Regardless of how honest their current movements are, it is worth at least diversifying the location of your funds for your own peace of mind, among other things, into hardware wallets that are generally considered safe. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen consolidating in a narrow range located between the levels of $1,219 - $1,281 as the traders await for a trigger of the next wave up or down. The volatility is very low, however the bulls retraced 38% of the last wave down and were capped at the local high seen at $1,347. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,219, $1,191 and $1,170 (H4 Pin Bar low). The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,281 and $1,343. Momentum on the H4 time frame chart remains bouncing up and down around the neutral level of fifty. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,247 WR2 - $1,237 WR1 - $1,231 Weekly Pivot - $1,227 WS1 - $1,221 WS2 - $1,217 WS3 - $1,207 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301387
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Consolidating

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.11.2022 09:10
Crypto Industry News: His entry was mostly warmly received by people and speculators talking about whether we have finally reached the long-awaited Bitcoin (BTC) low and we can talk about creating the foundations for a new bull market. Bukele's statement was also referred to by the creator and CEO of Tron (TRX), who also announced that his company, like El Salvador, intends to buy 1 BTC per day from tomorrow. Recall that El Salvador currently owns 2,381 Bitcoins (BTC), in which it has invested a total of $103 million. The value of Bukele's Bitcoin investment fell to $39.4 million. This will be the first Bitcoin (BTC) purchase made since June 30. The strategy of buying BTC announced by the president of El Salvador and the founder and CEO of Tron (TRX) is widely known as DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging), or "averaging the purchase price" and if you watched YouTube guides on investing in cryptocurrencies (and not only), and there are certainly such people among you, then you have certainly met the term described many times. Currently, the average price at which El Salvador purchased BTC is $ 43,000. Starting purchases at the time of the lowest Bitcoin quotations in the current cycle (so far) should help Salvador compensate for some of the, quite substantial, losses. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen consolidating in a narrow range located between the levels of $1,219 - $1,281 as the traders await for a trigger of the next wave up or down. The volatility is very low, however the bulls retraced 38% of the last wave down and were capped at the local high seen at $1,347. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,219, $1,191 and $1,170 (H4 Pin Bar low). The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,281 and $1,343. Momentum on the H4 time frame chart remains bouncing up and down around the neutral level of fifty. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,247 WR2 - $1,237 WR1 - $1,231 Weekly Pivot - $1,227 WS1 - $1,221 WS2 - $1,217 WS3 - $1,207 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301588
The Crypto Market Is Also Highly Volatile, So Drastic Price Swings Require Traders To Think Fast

Cryptocurrencies After Bitcoin - Altcoins And Meme Coins

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 19.11.2022 16:33
Cryptocurrencies are certainly an area that has become increasingly popular in recent years. However, it requires some familiarity with new terms and understanding how the modern investment market in this industry works. Altcoin Definition At the very beginning, only Bitcoin was known as the first cryptocurrency in the world that was based on blockchain technology. But the question arises, what is an altcoin? It is primarily a term for an alternative coin, built from the combination of the English words alternative and coin. An altcoin is any new currency that was created after Bitcoin, even if it uses the same software. Altcoin vs Bitcoin Altcoins are referred to as cryptocurrencies or tokens - regardless of the name, they share similar keys used to transfer currency between owners' virtual wallets. Many types of altcoins are built on a similar system as Bitcoin, but each has distinctive features - some focus on improving features that Bitcoin was less than perfect. Altcoin is a lower value currency, which makes it perfect for smaller transactions. There is also a difference between Bitcoin and altcoin in terms of the number of cryptocurrency units in circulation or determining the maximum number of coins. More and more cryptocurrencies are becoming serious competition for Bitcoin, and Altcoins worth attention are primarily those that use ready-made platforms or create their own with a specific specificity. Thanks to this, several of the largest Altcoins stand out on the market, such as: Ether, Ripple and Litecoin. Memecoins What is it? Meme coins are cryptocurrencies inspired by memes or jokes on the Internet and social media. Meme coins are usually very volatile. They are mostly community driven and can go viral overnight with online community endorsements and FOMO. Still, their price may also drop unexpectedly as investors turn their attention to the next meme coin. Another feature of meme coins is that they often have a huge or unlimited supply. Since meme tokens generally do not have a coin-burning mechanism, the huge supply explains their relatively low prices. For just $1, you can buy millions of meme tokens. The first The first meme coin created was Dogecoin (DOGE). Released in 2013 as a parody, DOGE was inspired by the popular Doge meme, which is a Japanese Shiba Inu dog with a rather funny expression. Other meme coins Shiba Inus (SHIB) is DOGE's rival and is often referred to as the "Dogecoin Killer". The main difference between DOGE and SHIB is that the latter has a limited supply of 1 quadrillion tokens. Dogelon Mars (ELON) closely follows the dog duo in terms of popularity. As the name suggests, ELON is named after Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his passion for SpaceX. ELON is a fork of Dogecoin and has a supply of 557 trillion tokens in circulation. The risk As with all cryptocurrencies, trading and investing in meme coins involves high financial risk. Compared to BTC, most meme coins tend to be inflationary with no maximum supply. Their ecosystem, uses, and foundations are often defined by collective community jokes. Only a few meme coins have been built on big cryptocurrency technology. Another potential risk is that meme coins are heavily community-driven and more speculative than larger market cap cryptocurrencies. This instability constantly leads to unexpected ups and downs. The life cycle of meme coins is generally short-lived. FOMO Discussing meme coins, FOMO appeared as a factor affecting the situation of cryptocurrencies, but what is it? FOMO is short for "Fear of Missing Out", so it's also a psychological term. In practice, the FOMO phenomenon can be illustrated with a simple example in which you learn about a new coin with huge potential. Everyone is talking about it, and the media is starting to present it as the new Bitcoin. Everything indicates that its price will increase rapidly and rapidly, so in fear of missing out, you decide to buy it without much thought. This is FOMO, i.e. taking action not based on analysis and reason, but emotions related to the fear of missing the "opportunity". FOMO also can be a marketing strategy to use by creating investor fear of losing out as a way to encourage investors to act. Source: investing.com,
The EU Will Move Forward With The Implementation Of The Digital Euro

CBDC As Evolution Of Settlement Forms | DeFi - financial services of Ethereum

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 20.11.2022 19:54
Centuries ago, money was associated with various values, mainly precious and semi-precious metals. In modern times, they can be in the form of coins or banknotes, but also accounting entries in accounts. But what is digital money? It does not necessarily have to be identified with cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the market of digital coins is constantly developing and thus financial services that are based on blockchain technology. It is worth getting acquainted with the famous one - DeFi. DeFi - Decentralized finance What is it? DeFi is a term for financial services that are based on blockchain technology (primarily Ethereum). They allow you to perform traditional transactions: purchase, sale, you can also trade assets or take out loans. In other words, they offer practically everything that traditional banks offer. The difference is that DeFi is decentralized – it is peer-to-peer. Transactions take place directly between two people, so there is no need for an intermediary such as a bank. Strengths Decentralized finance has undoubted advantages that traditional financial institutions cannot boast of. When using DeFi, you don't have to enter your full details: name, surname, home address, and the transaction is almost instantaneous. Speed and privacy protection can be considered as the main advantages. To use DeFi, you don't have to submit any applications or fill out documents to, for example, open an account. However, the exclusion of intermediaries means that costs such as commissions disappear. Disadvantages Decentralized finance has the potential to revolutionize the financial market, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't have flaws. Among the most important ones, it is worth mentioning that blockchain technology is complicated and still available only to a small group of people. Many DeFi applications also have bugs and need optimization, which is due to, among others, from the early stages of product development. What's more, there is no 100% guarantee against hacking. CBDC What is it? Giving up the physical form of money in circulation and introducing only digital money is a postulate put forward by economists around the world. It is related to the concept of CBDC. an abbreviation of the English phrase "Central bank digital currency". It is a monetary policy tool already used by central banks around the world. It is used to carry out transactions between commercial banks. The accounts of such entities, which are kept by central banks, have been using the aforementioned digital currency for years. CBDC and cash are not the same CBDC should be treated as a modern, completely different form of central bank money, different from cash and money available to selected entities on accounts maintained at the central bank. CBDC differs a lot from money in the form of cash. Among others: digital form, possibility of programming - thanks to the use of automatic transaction execution after meeting the set conditions, easy to use for payments, anonymity, universal availability. There is no one, always-proven, universal model of CBDC emission. Everything depends on the conditions and socio-economic goals Consequences of the introduction of CBDC There is no doubt that serious consequences of the introduction of CBDC await us. Digital currency may become the basic and only means of payment. Its implementation will have a specific impact on the functioning of: banking system, countries in terms of financial stability, the country's monetary policy, payment system. Economically, central bank digital money carries many potential risks. The introduction of CBDC will have numerous consequences from the point of view of the society and the banking sector, which will concern the sources of financing of the undertaken projects. The importance of deposits may be marginalized, which will result in an increase in the importance of issuing securities of a certain type. Another consequence of the introduction of CBDC may be a reduction in the importance of banks as intermediaries in payment systems. As a result, their financial results may decrease. If the central bank's digital money is introduced, the natural consequence will be a change in the current banking business model. The social consequences should also be emphasized. It should be remembered that changes must also take place in financial education from the earliest age. And speaking of age, also in developing economies or developed societies, the society is getting older, and thus there is no willingness of older people to change or difficulties in educating new technologies. There are other social consequences that central banks have to consider before introducing CBDC into circulation.
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

Officials May Want To Create Strict Regulations For The Cryptocurrency

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.11.2022 09:06
Crypto Industry News: Former US presidential candidate Andrew Yang warns that the collapse of FTX will make officials want to create strict regulations for the cryptocurrency exchange market. In his opinion, this is not conducive to making the US a blockchain center. Speaking at the Texas Blockchain Summit in Austin on November 18, Yang acknowledged that the bankruptcy of FTX and Alameda Research will likely make it harder to pass common-sense regulations for the cryptocurrency market. "I've always been in the camp [that] some sensible regulation was a good thing. I think it would help the industry mature and become more mainstream," he said. "Because of [FTX's [collapse] and other issues, headlines and people who have suffered [as a result of FTX's bankruptcy], there will be an appetite for regulation that I think may miss the mark," he added. Yang admitted that the path to clarity on digital asset regulations is more difficult due to the politicization of the US two-party system. Therefore, the collapse of FTX will only embolden the biggest opponents of cryptocurrencies to try to destroy this industry. The politician admitted that he is working with the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank based in Washington, to educate congressmen on blockchain technology. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has broken out from the narrow range located between the levels of $1,219 - $1,281 and is only $36 from the sell-off lows. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,073 as well, no other support was made. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,191 and $1,1219. The market has hit the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart again, however, the bulls are still in control of the market and keep making pressure to test the sell-off low at $1.073. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,198 WR2 - $1,151 WR1 - $1,143 Weekly Pivot - $1,125 WS1 - $1,110 WS2 - $1,092 WS3 - $1,059 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301795
Weekly Crypto Market Analysis by Geco.one – November 21st

Weekly Crypto Market Analysis by Geco.one – November 21st

Geco One Geco One 22.11.2022 08:38
Bitcoin (BTC) After the first half of November this year, Due to the panic sale caused by the collapse of FTX, the third largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, Bitcoin has stabilized in the last few days in the range between $16,000 and $17,000. However, there are many indications that this is only a form of correction, after which the quotations of the oldest virtual currencies could return downward. One must remember that the BTC exchange rate has been in a downward trend for over a year, and this trend has stayed the same at any time. Therefore, from a purely technical point of view, there is no reason to forecast a more significant rebound. In addition, it is also worth noting that the last fall was highly dynamic, which may indicate that it was an impulsive move. At the same time, the rebound observed for several days is exceptionally calm, which suggests that it is only a form of another correction. Given all this, the bankruptcy of FTX has already been officially announced. As a result, its further negative impact on the cryptocurrency market may be limited; the scale of bankruptcies of subsequent companies associated with this exchange will be of crucial importance. There is already talk that the BlockFi cryptocurrency lending platform is preparing for potential bankruptcy after the collapse of FTX, and there may even be over 150 similar companies. So it is far too early to open the champagne and announce another bull market. In practice, there is still a high probability of further sales of BTC and the vast majority of cryptocurrency projects. According to the popular opinion that "after every storm, the sun comes out", and just like in previous years, when after each of the previous bubble bursts, the cryptocurrency market returned to the path of growth, breaking new ATH, one can expect that this time it will be similar. However, we'll have to wait a little longer for that. Several factors may account for this: First, every topic, including every problem, becomes commonplace, and the financial markets pass over it daily. This was the case with the collapse of Mt.Gox in 2014 (the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world at that time) or QuadrigaCX in 2019 (the largest cryptocurrency exchange in Canada, about which Netflix even made a documentary). Second, the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary policy tightening cycle. While Fed interest rates are likely to remain high for most or even all of 2023, in 2024, the Fed is likely to embark on an easing cycle that, like in 2020, could contribute to the growth rally on risky assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies. Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum's quotations fell between November 4 and 9 by over 36%, and then, driven by a highly optimistic report on CPI inflation in the US, they rebounded by almost 26%, thus leading to a re-test of the previously defeated support. However, this increase lasted only one day, from November 11 this year. The ETH rate is falling again. If this trend continues - and there are many indications that it does - the price of this cryptocurrency could fall to around USD 1,000 in the near future. Only there is another valuable support in the vicinity of which a more significant demand response could appear. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash fell by nearly 31% between November 5 and November 9, falling to the lowest level since December 2018. Similarly to BTC and ETH, in reaction to the US CPI inflation report published on November 10, it went up by over 22%. It is noteworthy that this rally led to a re-test of the previously broken support (now resistance) of $106 and measured a 50% Fibonacci correction from the earlier downward impulse, where the BCH rate has been holding until now. However, considering the supply reactions that have appeared in the area of ​​the currently tested resistance, it seems highly likely that this zone will be rejected soon, which in turn could initiate another downward impulse towards the recent lows or even lower. Litecoin (LTC) Litecoin's quotations collapsed between November 7 and 9 this year by more than 35%. This sell-off stopped only in ​​technical support, around USD 50, where apparent demand pressure appeared on November 10. As a result of subsequent increases, the LTC exchange rate returned to the area of ​​previously defeated support (now resistance) around USD 64.50, where supply pressure reappeared last Sunday. If this resistance is rejected, the price of this cryptocurrency could fall back to around USD 50 or even fall to USD 43. Polygon (MATIC) After bouncing off the $1.30 technical resistance, the Polygon (MATIC) cryptocurrency fell more than 41% between November 5 and November 9. Although on November 10, the cryptocurrency made up for it. While the majority of these losses increased by over 52%, today, it is again listed at the levels from November 9. It is noteworthy that the MATIC exchange rate slipped below the local uptrend line last Sunday, which could drive further sell-off towards USD 0.70, USD 0.61 or USD 0.45. XRP XRP fell between November 5 and November 9 by more than 38%. This sell-off led to the breaking of two horizontal support levels at USD 0.4450 and USD 0.3950, respectively, and stopped only at the next significant level, around USD 0.32, where an apparent demand reaction appeared on November 10. Since then, the XRP price has alternately fallen and increased, staying at USD 0.32 to USD 0.3950. Therefore, taking into account its rebound from the upper limit of this range, observed last Sunday, we could expect another drop towards USD 0.32 in the coming days or possibly even to USD 0.30, where the next support level is located. Binance Coin (BNB) Looking at the Binance Coin quotes, we will notice that the price of this cryptocurrency has fallen by almost 36% since November 8. Such a significant depreciation meant that we are currently witnessing an attempt to break the technical support of USD 260. If the BNB rate permanently drops below this level, we could expect it to depreciate towards USD 244 or even USD 214 soon.
It Is Time To Take Action On Cryptocurrency Regulation

It Is Time To Take Action On Cryptocurrency Regulation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.11.2022 10:58
Crypto Industry News: United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Summer Mersinger has suggested that it is time to take action on cryptocurrency regulation. She voiced her opinion on November 18, speaking at the Texas Blockchain Summit: "We're clearly at a point where we need to stop, we need to gather the facts, we need to understand what's going on [...] to move regulation forward. Action is needed now"- she said. She says the CTFC will work with the Securities and Exchange Commission in this process. But what would these regulations look like? One of the proposals would be to introduce a "proof of reserves". "We expect that from our regulated entities. We don't ask for it every day, but we can [request it]. And I think that's fair," Mersinger said. "Maybe control is decentralized but you take customer funds and put them in some central location that they need to know about and be checked by regulators" - she added. In the meantime, however, "until a decision is made at the federal level, the states are the first line of defense." "Sometimes in Washington we forget that the states were the first actors and the first regulators here and that they play an important role. I think a lot of times the states are left out of the [federal regulation] talks, and that's unfortunate [a phenomenon]," - she said. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has broken out from the narrow range located between the levels of $1,219 - $1,281 and is testing the the sell-off low seen at $1,073 (at the time of writing the article). The bearish pressure is still strong, so in a case of extension to the downside the next target is seen at $999. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,191 and $1,1219. The market has hit the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart again, however, the bears are still in control of the market and keep making pressure. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,198 WR2 - $1,151 WR1 - $1,143 Weekly Pivot - $1,125 WS1 - $1,110 WS2 - $1,092 WS3 - $1,059 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302010
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

The Crypto Market Capitalisation Has Gone Sharply Down

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.11.2022 12:22
Outlook Of Crypto Market Bitcoin went below 15,500 at the end of the day on Monday, rewriting two-year lows, and slightly retreated from those extremes by the start of trading in Europe, trading around 15,700 (-2% in 24 hours). Ethereum is updating lows from July at the time of writing, falling to $1072 (+3.5% in 24 hours). The crypto market capitalisation is down 1.75% overnight to $782bn, its lowest since January 2021. Although this indicator is very tentative and synthetic, we have seen a tug-of-war around $1 trillion for a long time. For a while, the market lingered near levels just above 830 - the high at the peak in January 2018. Now another belief that the previous peak of the last cycle would work as insurmountable support has been broken. The crypto market capitalisation has gone sharply down, failing to develop an offensive above its 200-week average by early November. The 200-week (4-year) period is consistent with the notion of cycles in crypto, and the situation now looks like the exit of leveraged speculators who thought crypto had bottomed out in June-October. Although we believe that squeezing the weak hands out of the sector is almost complete, we are now seeing nothing more than speculators deleveraging, which is generally healing the market. Technical analysis suggests capitalisation could fall as much as 400-450bn, nullifying the rally, before returning to growth. However, this technical picture looks excessively pessimistic, and the stingiest speculators might not wait for that entry point, as is often the case in the markets.   Possible problems at another major company According to CoinShares, investments in cryptocurrencies rose by $44m last week against inflows of $42m the week before. Bitcoin investments rose by $14m, while Ethereum fell by $1m. Investments in funds that allow shorts on bitcoin increased by $18m, while shorts on ETH increased by a record $14m. Inflows to "short" products were 75% of the total, suggesting a deeply negative sentiment amid the FTX collapse, CoinShares noted. According to IntoTheBlock, the share of unprofitable bitcoin addresses exceeded 51% (24.56 million addresses out of 47.85 million BTC holders). The last time a similar situation was observed was after the market crash in March 2020. Rumours have emerged in the cryptocurrency community about possible problems at another major company. The failure of digital asset manager Grayscale Investments to disclose reserves and the suspension of crypto lending operations by OTC platform Genesis Trading have raised concerns about the entire Digital Currency Group (DCG) sustainability. According to experts, the collapse of Grayscale would be more severe than the collapse of Three Arrows Capital.
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

Crypto: DCG's Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Might Be Under Attack

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 22.11.2022 14:12
After the FTX crisis, we could potentially see the next crisis incoming: DCG's Grayscale Bitcoin Trust might be under attack, due to liquidity problems from the sister company. Could this be the end for GBTC? 00:00 Intro 00:19 Preview 00:41 FTX bankruptcy 03:13 Bitcoin 08:14 Ethereum 09:43 Ripple 11:40 Solana 14:23 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote ___  Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

The FTX Hacker Siphoned Nearly $447 Million | The Ethereum Market Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2022 09:42
Crypto Industry News: The hacker who attacked the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX began to transfer his Ethereum resources to a new wallet address. The attacker was the 27th largest ETH holder after the hack, but fell 10 places after the weekend's ETH dump on exchanges. The FTX hacker siphoned nearly $447 million from numerous FTX global and FTX USA exchange wallets just hours after the crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy on November 11. Most of the funds stolen were ETH tokens, making the hacker the 27th largest ETH whale. Two hackers were active at the time of the FTX hack, one in a black hat who managed to steal $447 million and one in a white hat who managed to transfer $186 million worth of FTX assets to a cold wallet. However, when the Bahaman Securities and Exchange Commission released a notice suggesting they were trying to move assets out of FTX, it raised a lot of suspicion, with many claiming that the securities regulator was actually the hacker behind the hack. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has made a Double Bottom price pattern on the H4 time frame chart and is bouncing from the sell-off low seen at $1,073. The bearish pressure is still strong, so in a case of extension to the downside the next target is seen at $999. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,191 and $1,1219. The momentum is moving away from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart, so the odds for a strong bounce are high. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,198 WR2 - $1,151 WR1 - $1,143 Weekly Pivot - $1,125 WS1 - $1,110 WS2 - $1,092 WS3 - $1,059 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-11-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302174
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

Hard Time Fore Crypto Market: Genesis Trading Is Potentially Facing Bankruptcy

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.11.2022 11:58
Bitcoin and Ethereum picture Bitcoin is adding 5.1% over the past 24 hours to $16.5K on Tuesday after updating two-year lows below $15,500. The rate rose in two powerful bursts, one at the start of trading in the US and the other at the beginning of trading in Asia. It's unlikely we will see a start of a promising move on high volumes. So far, as a reflex, investors are trying to follow the stock indices, where risk appetite is increasing. Ethereum is adding 6.7% in 24 hours as traders are encouraged by its ability to defend the $1,000 level. Top altcoins are adding from 4.6% (Cardano) to 30% (Litecoin) over the last 24h. The latter is rising on signals that the SEC may recognise the coin as a digital commodity, like Bitcoin, rather than an asset like almost all other cryptocurrencies. Despite the rebound, Bitcoin is still below the level it started the week, so we characterise the current move as a rebound rather than the beginning of a recovery. Bitcoin first needs to consolidate above $17K as a first reversal signal. More chances are that we are still seeing another mini rally in the bear market. The crypto lending platform's Binance will not invest in Genesis Trading amid the crypto lending platform's search for $1bn in emergency funding, The Wall Street Journal reported. Without an additional cash infusion, Genesis Trading is potentially facing bankruptcy. According to Glassnode, miners this year have sold the most significant volume of bitcoins since 2016. Capriole fund founder Charles Edwards noted that miner sales had soared 400% in the past three weeks. According to him, if BTC does not rise soon, we will see a massive bankruptcy of mining companies. The crypto market has seen a noticeable drop in liquidity following the collapse of FTX, Kaiko noted. Trading volumes on crypto exchanges more than halved to $100bn every week. The US House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture will hold a hearing on December 1 on the crypto-exchange FTX and measures to mitigate the impact of its collapse. The hearing is expected to feature remedial proposals from the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam.
The EU Will Move Forward With The Implementation Of The Digital Euro

In India Preparations Are Now Underway To Pilot A Digital Rupee Program

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.11.2022 10:15
Crypto Industry News: The race to bring the world's first CBDC to full scale is in full swing. One of the leading countries in this is India. Others are, of course, China, or recently Australia. In the case of India, however, we are talking about a potential addition to the financial system with a digital rupee, not a full replacement of its traditional, physical form. Some time ago we received information that the said country is keenly interested in introducing the digital currency of its country. After extensively testing the new currency system of the Central Bank of India, preparations are now underway to pilot a digital rupee program for retail customers. According to media reports, the CBDC is already at the final stage of preparations for its introduction. Among the main stakeholders are, for example, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India or HDFC and IDFC Banks. Currently, there are discussions about whether all commercial banks will eventually be covered by the new system. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has made a Double Bottom price pattern on the H4 time frame chart and is bouncing from the sell-off low seen at $1,073. The bulls has managed to extend the bounce towards the level of $1,198 and are still moving higher. Nevertheless, the bearish pressure is still strong, so in a case of extension to the downside the next target is seen at $999. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,213 and $1,1219. The momentum is moving away from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart, so the odds for a strong bounce are high. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,198 WR2 - $1,151 WR1 - $1,143 Weekly Pivot - $1,125 WS1 - $1,110 WS2 - $1,092 WS3 - $1,059 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302349
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

Crypto Market Rose Upon The Release Of FOMC Minutes

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 24.11.2022 14:48
Chart of the Day  US stocks notched gains for a second day after the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes revealed that most officials support the moderation of the pace of rate hikes soon. Some analysts highlight a dovish undertone, as the minutes recognize tightened international financial conditions and softened consumer demand. Others believe that the minutes didn’t convey anything new, and markets may be overreacting to the perceived shift in tones.  The broader crypto market rose upon the release of FOMC minutes. As of the time of writing, BTC has established a stronger footing above the $16.5k handle, after posting a 1% increase in the last 24 hours. ETH outpaces BTC with a 3.6% jump in the same period, and is now changing hands above the $1,200 level. Mid-to-large-cap altcoins saw mixed performances, with SOL leading the pack on a double-digit percentage in a similar timeframe. Top gainer LTC trimmed its recent gains, but still managed to capture a 32.5% gain in the past week, eight months ahead of the network’s third mining rewards halving.  Amid the FTX unraveling over the past weeks, the aggregate market cap of stablecoins briefly overtook that of Ethereum. The top 4 stablecoins in the market, namely USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI took up over $138 billion in total, during a period marked by high unrealized loss and strong stablecoin purchasing power.    Talk of the Town  DeFi management platform Llama and risk management outfit Gauntlet have submitted a governance proposal on Aave to cover a $1.6 million bad debt brought on by a publicized short attempt on Tuesday. The short attempt at CRV tokens was linked to the Mango Markets exploiter Avraham Eisenberg, who borrowed 92 million CRV from the DeFi lending platform and proceeded to sell them on a centralized exchange, causing an initial decline in the price of CRV. However, the short seller suffered a squeeze after CRV rallied above $0.60, and was eventually liquidated, leaving a $1.6 million hole in the DeFi protocol. The proposal calls for the use of Gauntlet’s insolvency fund and the Aave Treasury to cover the bad debt, as the debt coverage process could help to optimize the Aave DAO treasury. The community will discuss the proposal in the coming days, and more detail on how the process unfolds will be released if the DAO favors the proposal. 
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

The News About The New MetaMask Privacy Policy | The Outlook Of Ethereum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.11.2022 09:55
Crypto Industry News: The company behind MetaMask, namely Consensys, has updated its privacy policy. As part of the new provisions, their popular wallet will collect the aforementioned IP addresses and addresses of their customers' ETH wallets from today when they perform transactions. Specifically, the update affects users who use Infura as a "Remote Procedure Call" (RPC) provider in MetaMask. Infura is an affiliate of Consensys and is the default RPC provider on all MetaMask wallets. What is very important - according to the published information, MetaMask users have the option to change the RPC from Infury to another provider - then their data will not be collected by Consensys. However, they will still be subject to any information collection policies of the new RPC provider of their choice. According to a statement from Consensys: "When you use Infury as your default RPC provider in MetaMask, Infura will collect your IP address and Ethereum wallet address when sending transactions. However, if you use your own Ethereum node or a third-party RPC provider with MetaMask, then neither Infura nor MetaMask will collect your IP address or Ethereum wallet addresses." The news about the new MetaMask privacy policy quickly spread around the web and caused a very just, collective indignation of Internet users. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum bulls has managed to break the trend line resistance, extend the bounce towards the level of $1,215 and are still moving higher. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,231 and $1,1288. The momentum is moving away from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart, so the odds for a strong bounce continuation are high. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,198 WR2 - $1,151 WR1 - $1,143 Weekly Pivot - $1,125 WS1 - $1,110 WS2 - $1,092 WS3 - $1,059 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302530
"From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside"

"From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.11.2022 22:32
ETH/USD retreated a little in the short term after its strong rally. The retreat was natural and now it has developed a bullish pattern. It was trading at 1,185 at the time of writing. It has increased by 2.33% from today's low of 1,170 to 1,198 today's high. In the last 24 hours, ETH/USD is down by 1.23% and by 1.27% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin accumulates more bullish energy. An upside movement could help Ethereum to extend its growth. ETH/USD New Flag Formation!     From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside. In the short term, it has developed a flag pattern. 1,170 stands as a downside obstacle. The flag's resistance and the 1,215 represent upside obstacles. ETH/USD Prediction! ETH/USD could resume its growth if it makes a valid breakout through the flag's resistance. Still, a larger upside movement could be activated only by a new higher high, after it makes a valid breakout through the 1,215. Relevance up to 18:00 2022-11-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302622
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

The Ethereum (ETH/USD) Retested The Major Broken Downtrend Line

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.11.2022 12:57
ETH/USD retreated a little in the short term after its strong rally. The retreat was natural and now it has developed a bullish pattern. It was trading at 1,185 at the time of writing. It has increased by 2.33% from today's low of 1,170 to 1,198 today's high. In the last 24 hours, ETH/USD is down by 1.23% and by 1.27% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin accumulates more bullish energy. An upside movement could help Ethereum to extend its growth. ETH/USD New Flag Formation! From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside. In the short term, it has developed a flag pattern. 1,170 stands as a downside obstacle. The flag's resistance and the 1,215 represent upside obstacles. ETH/USD Prediction! ETH/USD could resume its growth if it makes a valid breakout through the flag's resistance. Still, a larger upside movement could be activated only by a new higher high, after it makes a valid breakout through the 1,215. Relevance up to 18:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302622
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

Metaverse Can Achieve The Title Of The 2022 Oxford Word Of The Year

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.11.2022 10:34
Crypto Industry News: "Metaverse" is one of the main contenders for the 2022 Oxford Word of the Year, the Oxford University Press (OUP) announced, in a sign that this particular word is becoming concrete in the public mind. Oxford University Press, the publisher of the Oxford English Dictionary, announced three final words or terms for 2022 on Tuesday: Metaverse, #ISstandWith and Goblin Mode. "In the word 'Metaverse', we see a conceptual future brought into the vernacular in 2022," OUP wrote. Metaverse occupied a prominent place in public discourse this year. The renaming of social media giant Facebook to Meta, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg's subsequent doubling of the company's focus on virtual reality, even as stocks crashed and the company laid off thousands, kept the metaverse in the first place for both investors and the general public. Meta also spearheaded the creation of the Metaverse Standards Forum, which includes tech giants Microsoft, Sony, Intel, and nearly 200 others as core members to "support interoperability standards for the open metaverse." This means that the metaverse has been in the announcements of virtually every tech company in the last 12 months. Notably absent from the list of Forum members is Apple, which seems to be hiring to build its own meta world to compete with Meta. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD bounce had been capped at the level of $1,231 and the market reversed back inside the range. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,231 and $1,1288. The momentum is weak and negative, so the move down might be continued towards the level of $1,104 or $1.073. The intraday technical support located at the level of $1,174 had been broken as well. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,253 WR2 - $1,213 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,173 WS1 - $1,150 WS2 - $1,133 WS3 - $1,093 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-11-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302753
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

Price of Ether declines as COVID reality in China discourages investing in risk assets

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.11.2022 16:10
Ethereum price slips over 1.5% in ASIA PAC trading on Monday after riots and protests across China. ETH gets global selling pressure as financial markets are dipping as well. Expect to see another leg lower in search of support together with all other asset classes. Ethereum (ETH) price saw a lackluster weekend regarding its price action and performance. On Saturday, some hopes were there that the pivotal level at $1,243 could get a test, but bulls never made it up that far. Instead, prices slipped lower on Sunday, and this morning, on the back of widespread social unrest in China that is hardly ever seen, overall markets are choosing to go with a risk-off tone for today. Read next: Farmers In China Suffer From Covid Restrictions| FXMAG.COM ETH slips below an important line in the sand Ethereum price is playing a dangerous game this morning as it came under pressure from a global risk-off tone triggered by pictures and videos on social media from China. Several cities have reported social unrest and called Xi to step down as the lockdown measures are starting to hit people’s morale. As this is very rare in China, this form of rebellion could start to weigh on several performance numbers from producers that are very dependent on local production in China. Apple has already come out this morning with a statement that it is falling behind on its delivery promises for its most recent iPhone. ETH currently flirts with the red descending trend line in the sand, refraining from ETH to make lows again toward $1,074. Unfortunately, if markets do not change sentiment throughout the day, the risk is that it will dip lower toward that mentioned level. The trade becomes a bearish triangle again, with $1,074 as the base and set to break lower to $1,014, which would carry a 15% loss. ETH/USD daily chart Although sentiment at the beginning of this week looks bearish, some social unrest in China may not immediately trigger a sell-off in the US later today or in the coming days. The same goes for the situation in Ukraine, which is showing fatigue and does not cap equities from rallying anymore. Expect later this week to see Ethereum price hit $1,243 and get ready for a pop higher toward $1,337 at the 55-day Simple Moving Average.
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

In the previous week Ether gained more than the leading cryptocurrency

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 28.11.2022 23:53
Written By: Marcus Wang and the Crypto Insights Team Edited by: Charmyn Ho Macro and Overall Risk Sentiment   The FOMC minutes released last week may have offered some hope for the eventual slowing down of the interest rate hike. The dollar is heading towards its steepest monthly decline since 2009, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is down more than 30 basis points in November. Optimism is resurfacing across a range of assets as investors begin to pivot towards embracing more risks. Moving forward, insights into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hike path will be tipped this week when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Brookings Institution coming Wednesday.    The crypto market saw a rare, quiet holiday weekend. Over the carnage, titans of the industry rose as they came together to set up a rescue plan to aid troubled projects. However, there is still too much uncertainty in the market for the collective effort to be a catalyst that turns things around. Major cryptocurrencies made attempts to stabilize in their respective ranges. BTC closed the week with a marginal increase of less than 1%, while ETH jumped 4.5% week-on-week.   BTCUSDT Perpetual     BTC price has shown early signs of stabilizing in the past week as selling pressures moderate. BTC rebounded to $16k after re-testing $15.5k, facing immediate resistance at the 20-day EMA of $17k. The rebound was likely due to a technical adjustment after RSI reached the oversold zone, while trend reversal is not on the table as the unraveling FTX saga continues to strain investors’ confidence. From a technical perspective, Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), a technical indicator that identifies changing trends and breakouts, has diverged further in the past week, suggesting an imminent break is not on the horizon.   Regarding Bitcoin’s bottom price, the maximum drawdown at 84.5% from previous bear cycles in 2013 and 2017 points to a $10.7k bottom. On the other hand, the fixed range volume profile saw strong support at $16.5k, where the price range between $16.5k and $21.5k has been traded with the highest volume since 2020. Nonetheless, if BTC, unfortunately, broke below $16.5 and took hold, the next support level at $13.5k would be relatively weak due to low historical trading volume, pointing to a possibly lower bottom price.    The 7-day moving average of the BTC funding rate has turned slightly positive in a few exchanges, indicating a relieving risk-off sentiment. However, the spread between BTC spot and futures remained deeply negative, which reveals a dim outlook for investors in the near term.   Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for BTCUSDT!   ETHUSDT Perpetual     As BTC clings to near-term $15.5k support, Ether has seemingly found support at the level of $1,080. Ether seems to stay above a trendline connecting price tops after FTX’s collapse, flagging an early sign of bullish price action. Ether has hovered around $1,200 in the past few days, facing immediate resistance at the 20-day EMA of $1,230 and a 50-day EMA of $1,320. Furthermore, the Parabolic SAR indicator on a 4-hour chart, an indicator used to determine trend directions and potential reversals in price, once turned bullish as SAR dots stayed below the current price level. However, as of the time of writing, the bullish signal freshly flipped to a bearish one, dashing hopes of a turnaround.    On another note, the open interests of Ether options set to expire by the end of November have been mostly closed, leaving significant volatility induced by option activity unlikely in the coming week. Meanwhile, Ether’s open interests in call options that expire by the end of December are still five times of put options. However, the strike prices of December’s call options are way higher than the current price level, unlikely to add up to the price volatility as well.   Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for ETHUSDT!   Altcoin Outperformer   While major cryptocurrencies stabilized over the past week, several altcoins outperformed the broader market with staggering double-digit gains. Celo Network’s native token, CELO, is up 54.2% week-on-week, with a major technical-driven pump on Sunday. The jump came a few days after the launch of Curve Finance on the Celo network as well as a partnership announcement between Consensys and Celo to improve multichain support and scalability. Network fundamentals are improving, with the number of active developers doubling in the past month. The total value locked on the protocol, too, has surged by nearly 50% to $121 million since a week ago.     CELOUSDT Perpetual     On the 1-day chart, CELO recently broke out from weeks-long resistance near the 50-day EMA and is now testing the next resistance level near the 100-day EMA. The trading volume has reached the level last seen in May, suggesting the outperformance is well supported by speculative capital. Meanwhile, RSI on the daily chart is on the high end but remains within the neural territory.    Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for CELOUSDT!   Market Movers (Week-on-Week) CELOUSDT (+54.2%) CRVUSDT (+25.6%) DOGEUSDT (+22.5%) CHZUSDT (-19.8%) DYDXUSDT (-12.7%) ALGOUSDT (-10.9%) New Derivatives Listings — What’s New on Bybit? Trade with up to 25x leverage on our new trading pairs: TWTUSDT SWEATUSDT Source: Bybit Blog | BTC and ETH Prices Cling to Key Support Levels as Negative Sentiment Persists
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

The Economic Committee Of The European Parliament Approved The Cryptocurrency Markets Act's (MiCA) Framework

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.11.2022 09:48
Crypto Industry News: In June, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said that MiCA II, or additional European regulations of the cryptocurrency market, "should regulate activities involving staking and lending of cryptocurrencies." Now she's back on the subject. Christine Lagarde wants MiCA II Christine Lagarde once again called the regulation and supervision of cryptocurrencies an "absolute necessity". In her opinion, this process - i.e. market regulation - should accelerate especially after the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange. During a November 28 hearing before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Lagarde cited Facebook's Libra as an example of the ECB's commitment, which "helped to stop some players" from entering the cryptocurrency market. However, she said that the situation with FTX was more about "stability and reliability of the stock exchange. He adds that the ECB needs to strengthen its role as a regulator to respond to people's growing interest in digital assets. "At least Europe [on regulation] is ahead of the rest," the ECB president said. "But as I said before, it is one step in the right direction. It's very much needed," she added. The Cryptocurrency Markets Act (MiCA) is undergoing legal and linguistic verification. The economic committee of the European Parliament approved its framework and assumptions in October - this happened after trilateral negotiations between the EU Council, the European Commission and the European Parliament. Many expect the new EU cryptocurrency policy to take effect from 2024. Technical Market Outlook: Despite the fact, that the intraday technical support located at the level of $1,174 had been broken, Ethereum has reversed all the yesterday's losses and is trading back close the recent local high around $1,231. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,231 and $1,1288. The momentum is back to the positive territory, so the move up is backed up by bulls. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,253 WR2 - $1,213 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,173 WS1 - $1,150 WS2 - $1,133 WS3 - $1,093 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-11-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302941
Bitcoin Has Fallen Past The $22k Level Which Is A Bearish Signal

Investments in crypto funds slid noticeably - Coinshares. The leading cryptocurrency suffers from situation in China

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.11.2022 10:06
Bitcoin suffers from China's realties Bitcoin declined on Monday along with stock indices, testing six-day lows near $16K, following a decline in demand for risky assets due to unrest in China. Near this round level, the first cryptocurrency saw a demand, and in early trading on Tuesday, cryptocurrencies rose more actively than traditional markets, bringing the price of Bitcoin back to $16.5K. According to CoinMarketCap, total capitalisation rose 2.2% overnight to $835bn, while the top coins add between 2% (Cardano) and 9% (Dogecoin), and Ethereum is again hovering around $1200. Read next: Meta fined by Irish regulators amidst privacy concerns| FXMAG.COM The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of buying on the downturn and has been performing better than stocks for the past 24 hours, bolstering buyers' hopes. Major players continue to go bust, adding the BlockFi platform to the list, and Hong Kong exchange AAX is having problems. The market seems to be taking this news as part of the sector's recovery process, with weaker projects leaving. According to Glassnode, traders with less than 1 Bitcoin have bought over 96K BTC, since FTX collapse  Santiment notes that wallets with large balances (100-10,000 BTC), after three weeks of net sales of 1.36% of total volume, have accumulated 0.24% in the last five days. It looks like the whales may be about to stop selling. Meanwhile, Glassnode claims smaller players are increasingly buying bitcoin on the dips. Investors with less than 1 BTC balance have added 96,200 BTC to their total holdings since the FTX crash. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $23 million last week, with the outflow of funds the highest in 11 weeks. Bitcoin investments decreased by $10m, and Ethereum by $6m. Investments in funds allowing shorts on bitcoin increased by $9m. Negative market sentiment persists after the FTX collapse, CoinShares noted. Regulators could take years to catch up and successfully control the cryptocurrency industry, so the industry needs to learn how to do it independently, says billionaire Bill Eckman.
US Treasury Rates Hold Strong as Inflation Report Looms, Dollar Resilience Continues

Metaverse Is Providing Opportunities For Both Its Users And The Virtual Economy To Proliferate

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 29.11.2022 13:34
The metaverse has transitioned from fiction to reality virtually right before our eyes. Metaverse Index stands poised to capitalize on the excitement surrounding this growing trend. By providing traders with exposure to several tokens rather than just one, Metaverse Index has forged a novel way to participate in the expanding metaverse and profit from the rise in virtual economies as a whole. In this article, we dive deep into MVI (Metaverse Index) to explain what it is, how it works and where its average price is expected to go today, tomorrow and a decade from now. What Is Metaverse Index?   Metaverse Index is a cryptocurrency index product consisting of a basket of tokens designed to track social, economic, business, entertainment and sporting trends as they shift toward virtual environments.   The metaverse is a boundless interactive cosmos that’s designed to provide opportunities for both its users and the virtual economy to proliferate and flourish. Investing in the metaverse can be done in any number of ways, the most common one being the purchase of The Sandbox, Enjin Coin and other metaverse-related tokens. However, much as savvy investors choose ETFs and index funds that track the S&P and other stock markets for relatively stable long-term gains, investors can take the same “basket” approach with the metaverse and crypto markets by investing in Metaverse Index, or MVI. Introduced by Index Coop in 2021, Metaverse Index is a liquidity-adjusted, root capitalization–weighted index, developed to capture and capitalize on the increasing trend shift toward virtual reality via its MVI token. This ERC-20 token represents the index, which is a collection of various Ethereum-based tokens chosen according to a strict set of metrics. In other words, Metaverse Index aims to tokenize the virtual worlds of the metaverse by providing a single investible token, MVI. Representing 16 tokens tied to the metaverse in one form or another, MVI can be viewed as a representation of the strengthening or weakening of virtual reality and crypto trends. Rather than forcing investors to place all of their hopes on the performance of a single token, Metaverse Index allows them to spread their risk across several tokens and potentially profit from their cumulative overall performance. As such, MVI and other metaverse index funds, such as DeFi Pulse Index, can be viewed as viable entry points for metaverse newcomers. What Is an Index Fund? Metaverse Index is one of many products developed by Index Coop, a DAO specializing in the creation of cryptocurrency index tokens. Crypto index funds (tokens), such as Metaverse Index, provide traders with broader exposure to crypto markets, the metaverse and specialized industry segments, allowing them to engage in trading in a simpler, more streamlined fashion. Index Coop offers a number of different index fund tokens. Tokens for each index are selected according to specific criteria. The Metaverse Index fund captures 16 metaverse-related tokens, including Enjin Coin (ENJ), Illuvium (ILV) and Decentraland (LAND), among others. By grouping these tokens into one single token in the form of MVI, Metaverse Index aims to offset the volatility inherent to investments in individual tokens. In addition to greatly minimizing volatility, an index fund also greatly reduces gas fees, commissions and trading fees for stocks and traditional investments. Rather than paying fees for each individual token, traders can maximize profits by paying much less in fees for the same amount of exposure. This is the beauty of index funds. By allowing traders to invest in baskets of tokens, stocks or other securities, they minimize the risks and volatility associated with trading individual assets, while simultaneously creating savings in the form of fewer gas or trading fees. Considering the significant short- and long-term growth forecast for the crypto/DeFi/metaverse space, it’s a win-win, depending on the tokens selected for the fund. Index funds take market capitalization, liquidity history, security features and more into consideration when deciding which tokens they’ll include. Origin of Metaverse Index Metaverse Index was launched in 2021 by Index Coop, short for Index Cooperative, as a means for traders and investors alike to profit from the rise in metaverse popularity as it continues to permeate all aspects of society and create new cultural norms. With the financial backing of Sequoia Capital, White Star Capital, Blockchain Ventures and other venture capitalists, Metaverse Index was collectively launched by Index Coop’s founders, without any third-party involvement. How Does Metaverse Index Work? Since the Metaverse Index token is an index fund product, it has no tokenomics or issuance/supply schedule, as typical tokens on the crypto market do. The token represents not one, but an assortment of 16 tokens with varied allocation. Let’s take a look at how it works. Constituent Weighting The folks at Index Coop use constituent weighting when selecting which tokens to include in the Metaverse Index fund. This means each individual token (constituent) in the fund is weighted according to its market capitalization. The weighted aggregation of all constituent prices is used to help calculate MVI’s value. Each constituent must meet certain requirements regarding market exposure, market capitalization and liquidity in order to be selected for the index. The basic criteria include: The token must exist on the Ethereum blockchain, and have consistently reasonable DEX liquidity on Ethereum as well. Total market capitalization must exceed $50 million. Protocol must belong to the NFT, VR, Entertainment or Music category on CoinGecko. Protocol must have a minimum of three months of operational, price and liquidity history. Token must undergo and pass an independent security audit. Index Calculation Metaverse Index uses a combination of liquidity weighting and root market cap to determine the final index weights. For all of the math lovers out there, here is the formula: TW = (75% × RMCW) + (25% × LW) TW = token weight LW = liquidity weighted allocation RMCW = square root of market capitalization–weighted allocation Index Maintenance Metaverse Index is maintained every three months in two separate phases, the determination phase and the rebalancing phase. During the first phase (determination phase), the protocol must be listed as belonging to specific token categories on CoinGecko. Once the outcome of the determination stage is published, and the token has been confirmed as belonging to an appropriate category, the index will enter the rebalancing phase where the index composition will change to reflect the new weights. The change in weighting as a result of this maintenance is reflected during the following quarter. Which Tokens Are Included in the Metaverse Index? The investment universe of Metaverse Index includes a variety of tokens within CoinGecko’s NFTs, entertainment, music, augmented reality and virtual reality categories, each one with at least 90 days of trading history and a market cap of $50 million or more. The following is the complete list of tokens that meet these requirements and are included in the Metaverse Index. Audius Audius is a music streaming blockchain protocol designed to bridge the gap between content creators and their fans. Axie Infinity   Axie Infinity is a popular game leading the play-to-earn (P2E) revolution. The game’s governance token is AXS.   Decentraland Decentraland is the very first completely decentralized metaverse universe. MANA is the native currency used throughout the game. Decentral Games Decentral Games is a metaverse casino located within Decentraland that players can own and operate via the DG governance token. Enjin Enjin is an important piece to the Metaverse Index puzzle. Its utility token, ENJ, is responsible for driving Enjin’s NFT economy, and within Enjin’s ecosystem, businesses can use ENJ to develop and monetize gaming NFTs. Ethernity Chain The Ethernity Chain token (ERN) is used to farm rare, limited-edition trading cards and NFTs created by popular NFT artists on the community-oriented Ethernity Chain platform. Illuvium Illuvium is a well-known metaverse gaming system that’s based on the Ethereum blockchain. At the moment, Illuvium is working on what many expect to be the very first truly playable AAA metaverse game project — one that includes a 3D virtual reality setting, with over 100 Illuvials sprinkled throughout the virtual cosmos. NFTX The ERC-20 protocol known as NFTX is used for creating tokens backed by a variety of NFT collectibles, resulting in instant liquidity for an asset class with well-known liquidity issues. NFTX is the governance coin that allows new proposals to be voted on by token holders. Rally The Rally network is powered by the RLY Ethereum token, giving token holders the ability to collectively create cryptocurrencies known as social tokens, and launch them on the crypto market. With Rally, creators can unlock new revenue streams while giving fans access to merchandise, unreleased content and several other benefits. Rarible Rarible is a popular NFT marketplace included in the Metaverse Index. With Rarible, virtually anyone can buy, sell and mint one-of-a-kind digital goods like game items, artworks and collectibles. Using the RARI governance token, community members can participate in the governance of the Rarible marketplace and treasury. REVV REVV is an Ethereum-based token used to support P2E motorsport blockchain games, like F1 Delta Time (now closed), Formula E, MotoGP™ and other titles developed by Animoca Brands. The Sandbox As its name suggests, The Sandbox is a community-centric metaverse network where anyone can develop and monetize on-chain games using voxel NFT assets. The vibrant gaming economy of The Sandbox is a top performer in driving the average price of MVI and a major contributor to the gaming industry. Terra Virtua Kolect Virtua is an immersive platform where collectors can purchase and display digital collectibles in the virtual reality space known as the “Fancave.” The utility token for the platform is TVK, Terra Virtua Kolect, which collectors can use to participate in the thriving collectible economy, unlock extra features and earn additional rewards. WAXE WAXP is the utility token for the WAX protocol, an e-commerce blockchain built to facilitate NFT value transfer. Partnering with Atari and other major gaming studios, WAXE (the Wax Economic Token converted from WAXP) currently plays an integral role in the Metaverse Index, and has growth potential. Whale WHALE is a virtual social currency backed by some of the rarest NFTs and digital assets on the market. The basket of NFTs supporting the currency include rare digital assets from Avastars, Gods Unchained, Cryptovoxels and several other coveted digital art. Yield Guild Games Yield Guild Games is a DAO that uses the YGG governance and utility token, which can be staked for specific rewards and used to pay for transactions within the Yield Guild Games community. Buying MVI vs. Individual Tokens The metaverse is an open digital space designed to seamlessly integrate endless aspects of the real world, including entities such as identity, ownership and financial value. This open, shared digital space is made possible by advances in virtual reality and blockchain technologies. User-focused tokens play a key role in the metaverse’s operational and economic design. With tokens, anyone can own a slice of the metaverse, along with the value they unlock. However, even for seasoned crypto traders, investing in any single token can result in exposure to high levels of volatility. While volatility can drive up the average price of a token and create significant returns, it can also result in significant losses in no time at all. Much like a traditional mutual or index fund, Metaverse Index and the MVI token aim to minimize volatility while supplying stable returns. By representing a variety of hand-picked tokens rather than a single one, MVI turns the growing trend of virtual reality into a single token anyone can invest in. Advantages of MVI Tokens MVI tokens let crypto traders profit from developments in metaverse technology by investing in several various metaverse protocols, rather than focusing on a single token, asset or platform. This provides several key benefits for traders and investors alike. Risk Management Since holding MVI or another index token offsets the volatility associated with individual tokens, by its very nature Metaverse Index acts as a risk management tool. Cost Effectiveness Buying or selling individual tokens requires gas fees for each transaction. Buying or selling MVI, on the other hand, allows you to trade and profit from over a dozen different tokens and protocols while only paying a single gas fee, rather than several. Simplicity Metaverse Index makes capturing broad market trends simple. Explicitly based on the concept of the metaverse, MVI offers a simplified, straightforward approach to capturing trends without the need for constant research and portfolio rebalancing. Transparency There’s nothing worse than flying blind as a crypto trader, so when it comes to investing your hard-earned money, transparency is a must. Recognizing this need, Metaverse Index employs a transparent set of rules for evaluating tokens for inclusion and exclusion. MVI Tokenomics Since MVI is an index product, it lacks tokenomics and there’s no supply or issuance schedule. The token directly represents a mixture of 16 tokens individually allocated according to a specific formula for liquidity weighting and root market cap. Additionally, although MVI doesn’t follow an issuance or supply schedule, it has a maximum supply of 39,602 coins. Metaverse Index Price Prediction The current price of MVI is $18.59, marking a 2 percent increase in the past 24 hours. However, the price is down 0.5 percent over the past seven days and 34.9 percent over the past 30 days. These price swings are even more eye-opening when looking at longer time frames. For example, MVI is down 94.7 percent on the year. At this time last year, MVI was trading at $355.13. Nonetheless, the question remains: Where will the price of MVI go from here? Currently, the overall sentiment is bearish on the short-term prospects for MVI. In fact, WalletInvestor’s forecast rates the token as a poor investment for at least the next year. The trading volume for MVI, however, remains strong and healthy. When coupled with the undeniable growth of the metaverse trend, the argument can be made that MVI’s current slump is exactly that — a slump. In fact, DigitalCoinPrice and many other crypto forecasters have the price of MVI rising consistently over the coming years. According to their analysts, MVI is expected to reach a minimum price of $39.92 in 2023 and a maximum price of $47.13. By 2025, MVI is predicted to reach $82.03, and by 2031, MVI is predicted to hit $358.92.  If these figures are at least somewhat accurate, the trajectory of MVI appears obvious. While it will likely take several years before MVI once again reaches its peak price of $372.65, which it reached in November 2021, the outlook is promising and the price of MVI should climb consistently in the years to come. Where to Buy Metaverse Index Investing in Metaverse Index doesn’t take much work. You can purchase MVI directly through Index Coop, the DAO responsible for maintaining some of today’s top crypto indices. As a developer and manager of crypto index funds, Index Coop makes investing in crypto and digital assets easier and less costly than building a crypto portfolio on your own. As with other tokens, you can purchase MVI with Ether (ETH). It can also be purchased with DAI, USDC, stETH and WETH. If you do not have any of these, you’ll need to buy some from an exchange that accepts bank or debit card deposits, such as Bybit. Once you have the necessary amount of ETH, you can then connect to your digital crypto wallet and exchange it for MVI. That’s really all there is to it. Is MVI a Safe Investment? Based on present data and all of the information above, Metaverse Index (MVI) — and the greater market environment — have been trending downward over the past 12 months. According to several sources, however, MVI’s future outlook is positive, with steady gains expected over the next 10 years. That said, given the drastic falloff from its all-time high of $372.65 just a year ago, it’s difficult to view MVI as a safe investment, especially for the short term. As a long-term investment or value play, on the other hand, MVI may be worth a look. The Bottom Line Metaverse Index has demonstrated the ability to completely change the way people engage and interact with the concept of the metaverse. The platform combines several of the top metaverse platforms and tokens into a single basket, allowing crypto traders and metaverse enthusiasts to invest in the metaverse trend rather than in a single token. Its methodology just makes sense. If you want to take a hands-off approach to the crypto markets and potentially profit while mitigating risks, Metaverse Index is worth checking out.    
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

Bitcoin And Ethereum Have Managed To Retain Their Positions As The Top Two Cryptocurrencies

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 29.11.2022 13:39
Interest in cryptocurrencies has fluctuated over the past few years as wealth flows into the cryptocurrency market with every bull cycle, creating millionaires. What has remained constant despite the surge of new cryptocurrencies is the market dominance of Bitcoin, still the most valuable crypto since its launch. In recent years, Ethereum has become the strongest competitor for market share, grabbing the reins and overtaking Litecoin. As cryptocurrencies vie for market share, Litecoin has managed to remain within the top twenty in terms of market capitalization, even after a decade. To learn more about these three cryptocurrencies, please refer to these following articles: What Is Bitcoin? What Is Litecoin? What Is Ethereum? In this article, we’ll be looking at the differences between these three cryptocurrencies, particularly regarding consensus mechanism, hash algorithm, distribution, transaction speed and use cases. Growth of the Cryptocurrency Market Bitcoin was founded in 2009. Since then, the cryptocurrency market has arguably gone through three bull markets, specifically in 2013, 2017 and most recently in 2020, a particularly prominent year with various altcoins reaching all-time highs alongside Bitcoin’s ATH of $69,000 in November 2021. Other crypto market catalysts have included the DeFi Summer of 2020 and the market adoption of non-fungible tokens (NFTs). In addition, the periodic emergence of meme coins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu (in 2013 and 2020, respectively) has expanded the crypto market. The expectation of widespread crypto adoption is also a major factor in the growth of the cryptocurrency market. International firms have incorporated cryptocurrency into their operations in recent years, including payment giant PayPal. With such developments, the market adoption of cryptocurrency has grown, with consumers’ awareness increasing. Why Is Bitcoin So Popular? Cryptocurrencies have existed for well over a decade. Yet, through all of the rapid developments in the crypto market, Bitcoin still remains the dominant cryptocurrency. It runs on a blockchain, a decentralized publicly distributed ledger that contains encrypted records of every transaction that’s ever been made on the network, thus ensuring data security. Bitcoin’s underlying blockchain technology enables peer-to-peer transactions and eliminates the need for control by governments or other centralized financial institutions.  The surge in Bitcoin’s popularity is also attributed to the profits it’s brought about for its investors. With a stunning 69,000% increase in price from $100 in 2013 to $69,000 in 2021, Bitcoin successfully captured the market’s attention. At the same time, altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) have also begun gaining bigger market share, the most prominent one being Ethereum, which has risen in the ranks to claim second place in overall market cap.  Litecoin, previously ranked second in market cap right behind Bitcoin, has been overtaken by multiple new cryptocurrencies, but has still managed to remain within the top twenty cryptos by market cap. In addition, its token, LTC, has recently gained the market’s attention once again as its price rose by 35% in just one week in the midst of an ongoing bear market. Litecoin vs. Bitcoin vs. Ethereum Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are all open-source software platforms, and their codes are publicly accessible. Despite all three cryptocurrencies being blockchain-based, there are certain underlying differences between them. Details Let’s start off with some specific details pertaining to each of these cryptocurrencies. Consensus Mechanism Since blockchains are publicly shared ledgers, they require an effective, fair, real-time, dependable and secure mechanism to ensure that all transactions taking place on the network are genuine. The consensus mechanism is essentially a set of guidelines to determine the validity of contributions made by the participants of the blockchain. In a blockchain’s dynamically changing environment, all participants have to agree on a consensus on the ledger’s status before transactions can be confirmed There are two main types of consensus mechanisms: Proof of work (PoW) and proof of stake (PoS). Using PoW, Bitcoin and Litecoin rely on miners, who solve complex mathematical equations using specialized hardware to add blocks to the networks. On the other hand, the Ethereum blockchain uses PoS, whereby validators stake their currency to validate new blocks on the blockchain. PoS requires significantly less computational power than PoW, which lowers both hardware requirements and energy consumption. Hashing Algorithm A hashing algorithm, which determines how incoming data is incorporated and verified on a blockchain, differs for the three cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin makes use of the SHA-256 algorithm and Litecoin uses Scrypt, while Ethereum previously relied on Ethash, no longer relevant since the network has switched to PoS as a part of its Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. The SHA-256 algorithm utilized by Bitcoin uses the computational power of GPUs (graphics processing units) and, to a lesser extent, CPUs (central processing units) to verify transactions and blocks. The most common method for Bitcoin mining consists of the use of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), a hardware system that can be tailor-made to mine Bitcoins. However, many people prefer not to use ASICs because they’re expensive, challenging to maintain and necessitate specialized knowledge. Bitcoin mining has become more centralized and exclusive, as fewer people have the skills, resources and time to buy, set up and maintain ASICs. This compromises the security and resilience of the network. Scrypt is a modified version of SHA-256, but is more memory-intensive, which is reputed to lessen its reliance on GPU arithmetic logic units (ALUs) and, consequently, ASIC mining equipment. Scrypt aims to make mining more accessible to individuals, as not all users can afford hardware equipment such as ASICs. This contributes to the decentralization of a network. Nonetheless, ever since Scrypt ASIC mining machines were built in 2021, Litecoin mining has once again fallen under the control of a few dominant players. Distribution Bitcoin (token: BTC) and Litecoin each have a supply cap on their number of tokens, with Bitcoin’s set at 21 million and Litecoin’s at 84 million. Since Litecoin has four times the supply of tokens, its network possesses greater liquidity as compared to Bitcoin. However, the scarcity of Bitcoin makes it more valuable. Ethereum, on the other hand, doesn’t have any ceiling for its supply of ETH. Nonetheless, its rate of growth is limited to 4.5% per annum. Mining Rewards Miners are rewarded for their efforts in the form of a blockchain’s native currency.  In 2009, Bitcoin started off with a 50 Bitcoin reward per block mined. After going through three halvings, the reward is now set at 6.5 BTC. Similarly, Litecoin began with a reward of 50 LTC per block mined. Following two halvings, the current reward stands at 12.5 LTC per block, with a third halving scheduled for 2023, which will reduce the reward to 6.25 LTC. These rewards are halved in order to limit the quantity of each cryptocurrency released into the circulating supply, thus creating scarcity. Bitcoin block rewards are halved every 210,000 blocks, while Litecoin block rewards are halved every 840,000 blocks. This difference is due to the different supply cap. Since Ethereum now utilizes a PoS consensus mechanism, there are no rewards for block mining. Instead, participants are rewarded by staking their Ether on the network to participate in block validation. Depending on the staking program in which users choose to participate, their rewards can fluctuate anywhere from 2% to 20%. Transaction Speed Another significant difference among the three cryptocurrencies lies in their transaction speeds, or TPS. Bitcoin processes approximately 5 TPS, and takes about 10 minutes to create a new block. In addition, Bitcoin software limits the size of a new block to 1MB. Not all Bitcoin transactions are processed within ten minutes. This is especially the case when the network is congested, due to a large number of transactions. Litecoin processes 54 TPS, taking approximately 2½ minutes to create a new block. Transactions on Litecoin are roughly four times faster than Bitcoin’s. As a result, Litecoin is often regarded as a currency for day-to-day transactions, while Bitcoin is considered to be more of a store of value. With its recent upgrade (The Merge), the Ethereum network is now able to handle up to 100,000 TPS.  Transaction Fee Bitcoin: ~$1 Litecoin: ~$0.012 Ethereum: Ethereum employs a different mechanism, called gas, in place of transaction fees. The amount of computational work necessary to complete a transaction is measured in gas. On the Ethereum network, users must pay gas fees in order to complete a transaction. They’re correspondingly assessed a gas fee for each individual transaction. Network Scalability One of the biggest issues for the Bitcoin network is scalability. The more users trying to send funds over the network at a given moment, the more congested it becomes. Since transaction fees are defined on the basis of an auction, those who make higher bids get their transactions confirmed first. This leads to high network fees and longer confirmation times. Though Litecoin has much lower fees, its network experiences the same problem. To speed up transaction time and lower transaction costs, Bitcoin and Litecoin have implemented some improvements. Among these are SegWit, which increases the block size limit by pulling signature data from transactions, and Lightning Network, which keeps transaction data off the blockchain. Since Ethereum has switched over to PoS, problems with scalability aren’t as prominent. However, scalability has been a major issue for the popular Ethereum network while it was using a PoW consensus. Layer 2 solutions were implemented as a partial remedy for Ethereum’s former transaction rate of 12–15 TPS. Use Case The use cases for each of these three cryptocurrencies differ quite drastically. Bitcoin: Bitcoin was created as a form of technology to allow for decentralized peer-to-peer (P2P) payments. However, its slow transaction speed makes it impractical for daily use, and it’s been referred to as digital gold, serving primarily as a store of value. Litecoin: Litecoin was forked from Bitcoin’s code to tackle issues of cost and scalability. These differences make Litecoin more favorable for merchants, since payments and transactions can be carried out quickly at a cheaper rate. Ethereum: Ethereum focuses on smart contracts, transfer of asset ownership and DApp (decentralized application) production. Smart contracts are software programs that take action when specific criteria are met. This procedure makes sure that every Ethereum transaction is secure for the user. Additionally, exchanges like the transfer of property or the exchange of money may be included in the contracts. Ethereum’s unique feature is that it allows programmers to directly interact with its underlying network, a capability that Bitcoin and Litecoin do not support. Should You Invest in Any of These Coins? The cryptocurrency market changes very rapidly, making it difficult for investors to choose the best investment options. With all the hype around the industry, many people are wondering if they should invest in either Bitcoin, Litecoin or Ethereum. New currencies are created in the market every month, and there’s no guarantee they’ll remain popular. Still, the three dominant currencies compared in this article have a strong user base, experienced developing teams and are available on most exchanges. All three of these currencies have already proven to be profitable for investors, and to have a good chance of growth in the next few years. Closing Thoughts The cryptocurrency landscape has changed drastically since its inception. Recently, more attention has been brought to the regulatory environment surrounding crypto. Despite all of this change and uncertainty, Bitcoin and Ethereum have managed to retain their positions as the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap. Litecoin, on the other hand, is no longer within the top three, but still holds its position among the 20 largest cryptocurrencies.  The crypto market is indeed an exciting one, with great potential despite its volatility and associated risks. If you’d like to take part in the market, sign up with Bybit today.
According To Cory Klippsten Etherum and Solana are "bad coins"

A dive into the second largest cryptocurrency platform in the world - Ethereum

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 30.11.2022 10:20
Which cryptocurrency made its creator a billionaire 8 years after its creation? Why will Ethereum jump to the Ice Age? What's the deal with the ticking bomb hidden in the code? I invite you to the next lesson in which we will explore the secrets of the second largest cryptocurrency in the world. The Ethereum platform Ethereum is a decentralized open-source platform that is built on blockchain technology and supports peer-to-peer contracts (smart contracts) and decentralized applications (Dapps). Its native crypto token is Ether, i.e. ETH that allows transactions between users and or applications and the payment of related fees, that result from the computing power needed to process them. Read next: Crypto exchanges - what are they and how do they work? | FXMAG.COM Thank you for your attention. You already know what Ethereum is but perhaps you don't know or don't understand. After reading the definition above, I also had to think for a moment, so let's tackle this topic one by one, from the perspective of a beginner. The idea of creating Ethereum was born in Vitalik 's head Buterin, a Russian-born Canadian developer in 2013, which resulted in a briefing paper titled "Ethereum: The Ultimate Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform". Vitalik had 19 years and a pen when he created the Ethereum white paper. You can find a link to this document in the video description - https://ethereum.org/en/whitepaper/ Buterin was interested in programming based on the Bitcoin source code, but he quickly saw new opportunities that the Ethereum technology could offer, which BTC does not offer. This was due, among other things, to the lack of use of a scripting programming language. Generally, it is about the possibility of creating smart contracts and decentralized applications. Fundraising for the project Using the so-called ICO (Initial Coin Offering), i.e. collections where contributors receive tokens in return. The public sale of tokens lasted 42 days. It started on July 22 and ended on September 2, 2014. The tokens were sold for BTC, with the initial price being 2,000 ETH for 1 BTC, which was about 30 cents for one token at the time. Yes, this is the place where you can divide the current ETH rate by 30 cents and check how much you would have earned if you had already invested in the idea of a 20-year-old. The sale was carried out by a company registered in Switzerland. They managed to collect over 31.5 thousand BTC, which then meant a collection of around USD 14 million. It is worth adding that Vitalik Buterin did not act alone, and it would be really wrong if Gavin Wood was not mentioned, CTO of Ethereum, who had a huge impact on the development of the network. Attention! The official name of this cryptocurrency is Ether (ETH), and the blockchain of this cryptocurrency is Ethereum. Although on exchanges and various crypto listings you will meet the name Ethereum, which is a fairly generally accepted simplification. Launching of the Ethereum network The Ethereum network launched on July 30, 2015 with a 6-month delay. Now, what exactly is Ethereum ? First of all, it is a separate blockchain from the blockchain Bitcoin, so it is a new separate cryptocurrency. If you don't know what a blockchain is, I encourage you to watch a video based on it or read up more on the concept. In simple terms, Bitcoin is compared to a ledger in which subsequent transactions are recorded. If we would like to use a term or comparison adequate to that of Bitcoin, Ethereum can be compared to, for example, Excel, i.e. a program for performing various types of calculations. Read next: Anyone can become a validator without specialized equipment. What is The Ethereum Merge? - our team explains | FXMAG.COM In Ethereum, we are able to write a formula in a single cell (an analogy would be a single key in Bitcoin) that determines what should happen to the money that will flow in there. These are just smart contracts, of which there are a lot. Hence, these smart contracts can be analogous to, for example, notarial contracts. Ethereum is a proposal to build a block chain that has its own scripting language that allows you to write programs, although not like computer games, but such as, for example, various types of economic systems. In Bitcoin, nodes process transactions, while Ethereum network nodes process programs. Ethereum can therefore be described as a decentralized and distributed computer that can perform calculations and execute computer programs. The Ethereum blockchain system The programming language on which Ethereum is based allows for a lot, basically everything, but what is possible can also be inherently problematic. In October 2016, the network was divided into two blockchains, known as the hard fork. Why did it happen? It was due to the problem of The Dao organization based on the Ethereum smart contract. This organization raised $150 million and just 3 days later it was stolen. More than 1/3 of the collected funds were lost, due to hackers that took advantage of a minor bug in the code. If the system is decentralized like Ethereum, a smart contract once written cannot be changed. So if we transfer funds to such a smart contract, such an error can be exploited, but we are unable to fix such an error. The fraud caused a split in the cryptocurrency society - some users wanted to return the Ethereum network to the state before the theft, thus recovering the victims' funds, but others preferred not to interfere with the course of blocks and stay with the current state of the platform. This led to a split in the network, the so-called Hard fork. The cryptocurrency now known as Ethereum is the blockchain that brought the network back to its pre-fraud state. The cryptocurrency known as Ethereum Classic continued without intervention. But what is the ticking time bomb and ice age mentioned in the introduction? Ethereum was to strive to develop technological possibilities that would allow resignation from mining in favor of a consensus algorithm, the so-called Proof-of-Stake. In short, instead of mining, an inflation model is to be introduced, or otherwise a model based on a classic deposit. So we deposit funds that generate new ETH for us. For this purpose, an algorithm was implemented to gradually increase the difficulty of mining ETH (mining difficulty) until it becomes completely unprofitable. This algorithm was called Difficulty Bomb, and the moment when the difficulty of mining reaches a level too high for miners - Ice Age. It is possible that by the time you watch this video, the Ethereum network is already operating based on the aforementioned consensus. Bitcoin vs Ethereum Finally, let's compare Ethereum to Bitcoin, both cryptocurrencies are open source and give us a degree of anonymity. The main use of Bitcoin is to store value and conduct transactions within the digital currency. In addition to these activities, Ethereum also allows you to create and run decentralized contracts and applications. Bitcoins will be 21 million units, the number of Ethers is unlimited.
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

Ethereum Follows Bitcoin And Actively Develops A Recovery

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.11.2022 12:13
The events of November finally plunged the market into an abyss of fear and mass capitulations. According to a report by Glassnode, whales sold more BTC and ETH coins in November. A similar position was taken by miners because of the enormous losses. Despite this, investors continue to believe in cryptocurrencies and actively increase their investments. Analysts at Santiment note that euphoric moods have peaked in the last three months. First of all, this can be seen in the "shrimp" (> 1 BTC), which are actively buying out the current price drop. For the first time in the past two months, wallets with balances up to 100,000 BTC have joined them. It is also reported that the ETH network has set a staking record for the main altcoin in the region of 15.39 million ETH. ETH/USD Analysis Ethereum, like the entire market, is heavily dependent on Bitcoin at the current stage, and therefore the movement patterns are almost identical. During the current trading week, the market cooled down and moved to the phase of active accumulation. This allowed the market to move to the stage of recovery movement. Ethereum has become one of the coins that has benefited the most from the current recovery movement. The asset has risen in price by 9.5% over the past seven days, and the daily gain was 5.5%. The upward movement is also accompanied by an increase in on-chain metrics activity. Ethereum has come close to the upper border of the "triangle," within which the altcoin has been trading since the beginning of November . The cryptocurrency formed the second confident green candle in a row and consolidated above $1,250. Technical indicators on the daily chart indicate that the altcoin's upward trend continues. The RSI index continues to rise, which indicates the superiority of buyers and the development of bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator and MACD have formed a bullish crossover and are moving in an upward direction. The identical movement of the two indicators indicates the formation of a short-term upward trend with gradually increasing trading volumes. ETH/USD on-chain analysis Ethereum on-chain metrics do not show such an iron bullish trend as technical indicators. The formation of upward dynamics is observed only in the indicator of the number of unique addresses in the ETH network. For further growth of ETH/USD quotes, the volume of daily trading should also increase beyond this indicator. There is an active accumulation of cryptocurrency by large investors with wallets up to 100,000 ETH. At the same time, "shrimps" and "sharks" continue to sell their stocks or remain neutral. As of writing, on-chain activity does not confirm the strength of technical metrics, which may prevent the final assault on the upper border of the $1,080–$1,300 channel. Results Ethereum follows Bitcoin and actively develops a recovery movement. To begin the implementation of a short-term bullish movement, the altcoin needs to gain a foothold above $1,300. As of writing, ETH hit $1,270 and faced bearish resistance. The asset retains chances to continue its bullish movement, and in case of consolidation above $1,300, ETH may reach the level of $1,350–$1,450. However, in case the storm of the $1,300 level is unsuccessful and the price falls below the level of $1,150, the bullish idea is cancelled. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328573
According To Cory Klippsten Etherum and Solana are "bad coins"

According To Cory Klippsten Etherum and Solana are "bad coins"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.11.2022 14:38
Crypto Industry News: Etherum is a 'fraud' that will eventually 'explode' like FTX as Bitcoin becomes the primary global form of money According to Cory Klippsten, CEO and founder of Swan Bitcoin, in the long run, BTC will become the primary form of money in the world, replacing the US dollar and other fiat currencies and beating altcoins: "It is very likely that Bitcoin will continue to grow in size, market capitalization, price and purchasing power for decades and become the world's money, which is likely to replace the US dollar in the long run," he said. 30 years, but it could also be something that won't happen until the next century." Suggesting that altcoins like Etherum and Solana are "bad coins", Klippsten stated that unlike Bitcoin, they cannot hope to become a form of money. He also said that Ethereum is a "scam" that will eventually "go up in the air." "Someone can issue and control the money supply in these altcoins and change the code whenever they want," he stated. . Klippsten, who correctly predicted the fall of Celsius, Luna/UST, and FTX, spoke to Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief at Kitco News. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has been seen moving higher as the bounce continues above the level of $1,231. The recent local high was made at the level of $1,280 (at the time of writing the article), however, the market has entered an extremely overbought levels. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,1288. The momentum is strong and positive, so the move up is backed up by bulls. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,253 WR2 - $1,213 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,173 WS1 - $1,150 WS2 - $1,133 WS3 - $1,093 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303166
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Several US States Are Investigating Several Major Crypto Companies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.12.2022 08:59
Crypto Industry News: Alabama and several other US states are investigating several major crypto companies, including Genesis The investigation is allegedly into potential securities breaches and links with retail investors. According to November 25 reports, lending firm Genesis Global Capital and other crypto firms are under investigation by US securities regulators. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities and Exchange Commission, confirmed that his state and several other states are involved in investigations into Genesis' alleged ties to retail investors, and whether the platform and other cryptocurrency companies may have violated securities laws. This information was provided by Barron's. It is not yet known which other companies have also been taken under the scrutiny of administrative authorities. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has been seen moving higher as the bounce continues above the level of $1,288. The recent local high was made at the level of $1,308 (at the time of writing the article), however, the market has entered an extremely overbought conditions. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,1288, but the next target for bulls is seen at $1,343. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the move up is backed up by bulls. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,253 WR2 - $1,213 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,173 WS1 - $1,150 WS2 - $1,133 WS3 - $1,093 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-02 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303325
Maker DAO launched Spark Protocol. SushiSwap rolled out its v3 concentrated liquidity pools

Ledger Wallets Also Now Support CRO Holdings | MakerDAO And Increasing The DAI Savings Rate

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 01.12.2022 12:59
Ethereum staking withdrawals enter the testnet stage. Gas usage on Ethereum L2 networks reaches record monthly high. Aave proposes governance changes after failed US$60M short attack. Weekly DeFi Index This week’s market cap and volume indices were positive at +8.02% and +5.48%, respectively, while volatility index was negative at -4.55%. Check the latest prices on Crypto.com/Price New Project Spotlight Crypto.com announced Ledger support for its Crypto.com Wallet Extension. Users can now import and confirm transactions using their Ledger hardware wallet, allowing for a more secure experience when interacting with dApps. Ledger self-custodial wallets also now support CRO holdings on Cronos (in addition to the Crypto.org Chain). Users can easily manage their CRO through the Ledger Live app from the security of their Ledger wallets. News Highlight Ethereum staking withdrawals have entered the testnet stage. Developers have launched a multi-client devnet to test the unlocking of Ether staked, and the withdrawal will be part of the Shanghai upgrade.  Gas usage on Ethereum Layer-2 networks just hit a record all-time monthly high, seeing over 103 billion gas used — a huge leap from 33.2 billion at the start of the year. The fees were mainly used to validate transactions and operate bridges in Layer-1.   In light of the recent failed US$60 million short attack on Aave, the project’s contributors proposed governance changes to cover $1.6 million in Aave’s bad debt. Another separate proposal has been drafted, calling for temporarily freezing certain assets on the platform to prevent further market attacks.  Compound Finance users have also passed a proposal to impose new borrow limits on 10 of its assets, with the goal to reduce risks relating to liquidity, market changes, and price manipulation and exploits, among others.  MakerDAO‘s governance forum has voted to hike the DAI savings rate up to 1%. The proposed changes aim to ensure liquidity to maintain DAI stability and to take the staking yields to be on par with yield offered by other DeFi protocols such as Aave and Compound.  DEX aggregator 1inch releases Rabbithole, a new feature that will protect users from ‘sandwich attacks’ — a type of crypto front-running that involves controlling asset prices by placing two orders and surrounding pending transactions. Rabbithole works by sending swap transactions directly to validators while avoiding the mempool, where it is vulnerable to sandwich bots’ attacks.  Ethereum software firm Consensys updated its privacy policy, outlining how it  “collects, uses, shares, and stores personal information of users of its websites” through its on-chain wallet service Metamask. Recent Research Reports     Argentina 2022 Survey: Argentines Are Increasingly Keen to Adopt Cryptos and NFTs: Crypto.com recently commissioned a survey of more than 2,000 Argentines to find out more about their investment preferences, knowledge, and opinions on crypto and NFTs. Research Roundup Newsletter (October 2022): In this issue, we cover our recent Bloomberg Terminal integration, a special research report for the Singapore Fintech Festival, and feature articles on NFT financialisation and utility. Alpha Navigator (October 2022): We look at crypto industry performance in October, including ETH’s short-term correlations with equities reducing. Is the Fed pivoting on rate tightening policy?         Argentina 2022 Survey: Argentines Are Increasingly Keen to Adopt Cryptos and NFTs: Crypto.com recently commissioned a survey of more than 2,000 Argentines to find out more about their investment preferences, knowledge, and opinions on crypto and NFTs.   Research Roundup Newsletter (October 2022): In this issue, we cover our recent Bloomberg Terminal integration, a special research report for the Singapore Fintech Festival, and feature articles on NFT financialisation and utility.   Alpha Navigator (October 2022): We look at crypto industry performance in October, including ETH’s short-term correlations with equities reducing. Is the Fed pivoting on rate tightening policy? Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Spotify Is Testing Playlists With NFT Integration In Its Latest Pilot Program

Porsche NFT Collection Will Hit The Market In January 2023

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.12.2022 10:08
Crypto Industry News: The German manufacturer has prepared the NFT collection, which is to consist of over 7,000 items tokens. This one will be inspired by the classic model - the Porsche 911. The tokens will hit the market in January 2023. The initiative is led by a designer and 3D artist from Hamburg, Patrick Vogel. We know that every NFT buyer will be able to personalize their token. It is about the so-called "route" that will include "lifestyle, performance and heritage". Each such "route" is intended to reflect individual "aspects of Porsche's premium brand identity". Sounds mysterious, but that's not all. The data collected in this way will be needed by Vogel, who is then to prepare NFT as a special 3D resource based on Unreal Engine 5. In addition to personalizing their NFTs, buyers will also be able to participate in brand experiences in the virtual and real world. Porsche, however, does not intend to stop at NFT. The company is also working on integrating blockchain technology with its systems. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made the recent local high at the level of $1,308 into extremely overbought conditions. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,1288, but the next target for bulls is seen at $1,343. The upside might be limited due to the fact, that the level of $1,300 is the upper channel line, so a pull-back towards support is welcome. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart and is coming off the overbought levels. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,253 WR2 - $1,213 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,173 WS1 - $1,150 WS2 - $1,133 WS3 - $1,093 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303493
The Close Relationship With BTC Does Not Allow The Altcoin To Move On Its Own

The Close Relationship With BTC Does Not Allow The Altcoin To Move On Its Own

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.12.2022 13:29
The cryptocurrency market meets Friday in a lazy mood, which is reflected in the quotes of the main cryptocurrencies. Over the past day, the market capitalization of all digital assets has decreased by almost 1%, which is a significant decrease in the current conditions. Inflation triggers bullish momentum Despite this, the fundamental news background remains positive and neatly spoils the market, where we should expect the next bullish impulse reaction. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the main signal to reduce inflation will be the PCE Price Index statistics. According to the released data, the economic indicator rose +6% in October. In September, the metric reached 6.3%. The presence of a downward trend in the PCE metric indicates a continuation of the downward trend in the inflation rate. This means that the next inflation report could trigger a boom in high-risk asset markets. Given this, we should expect increased volatility and attention of crypto investors to the next inflation report. Read next: Steen Jakobsen: ECB strategy is praying, hoping and waiting... not exactly action which gives hope for real economy| FXMAG.COM Negative factors With all the positive developments in the fight against inflation, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remains at the local bottom. This provokes huge losses of related industries, which, in turn, negatively affect the upward potential of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's hash rate has reached 300 EH/s again, while the price remains near $17k. This provokes one of the largest sell-offs among miners in history. Over the past day, the reserves of mining companies have fallen by 10,000 BTC. In addition, miners sell BTC mining equipment to cover running costs. There have also been reports that mining firms are using hardware as collateral for the loans they need to stay viable. BTC/USD Analysis Given the miners' concerns above, Bitcoin's upward movement has stalled near the $17k–$17.1k resistance level . Despite the slowdown in growth rates, the bears failed to seize the initiative and absorb the volumes of the bulls in the last days of November. As a result, Bitcoin failed to completely leave the "triangle," which means that the probability of a period of local accumulation before the beginning of next week is greatly increased. Technical metrics also point to a pause: the RSI is moving flat, while the stochastic is forming a bearish crossover. Given the divergence of technical metrics and the possibility of a decline, BTC needs to hold the $16.7k level. Otherwise, the price will go to retest $16k and below. However, in general, the activation of buyers, the growing correlation with stocks and a positive fundamental background can provoke a new monthly high. ETH/USD Analysis On the daily chart of ETH/USD, a situation similar to Bitcoin has formed. The price is near the border of the fluctuation range and has every chance to make a bullish breakout and storm $1,400 and $1,450. However, the close relationship with BTC does not allow the altcoin to move on its own, and therefore the main signal for the growth of the ETH price will be the bullish momentum of Bitcoin. Ethereum technical indicators are also echoing BTC and are in a consolidation pause. At the same time, Ethereum on-chain activity is growing, which may indicate an attempt to finally go beyond the $1,050–$1,350 range. It is also worth noting the low activity of sellers in the ETH network, which may indicate a high probability of a successful attempt by the bulls to break through $1,300 over the weekend.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328817
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Institutional Money Is Slowly Replacing The Funds Of Retail Investors

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.12.2022 10:01
Crypto Industry News: Sandy Kaul, a senior manager at Franklin Templeton, a $1.5 trillion wealth management company, believes that ETH staking opens up significant opportunities for institutions looking at the cryptocurrency market. In her opinion, this feature can become a trigger for mass adoption among institutions: "Let me say this, keep your eyes peeled for this area because he has seen some powerful products that will fill exactly the niche you are talking about." The asset management expert further says that the growth of the cryptocurrency industry reminds her of the area of hedge funds in the 2000s. Then the institutions literally rushed to market sell-offs to take the best positions and take control of the market. "I believe what happened in the hedge fund industry up to and after 2008 can be very illuminating in this situation (regarding the cryptocurrency market). We saw $2 trillion worth of assets flowing in over 3 years. That is a huge influx of money, bringing the industry closer to $3 trillion, which is roughly the level that the digital asset industry reached during the last bull market," says Sandy Kaul. According to the expert, what is happening now is a real revolution of the basic investment base. What was happening in the hedge fund market then and what is happening in the cryptocurrency industry now is the same kind of upheaval. You can also see that institutional money is slowly replacing the funds of retail investors that the latter are pulling out of the market. Thus, funds and institutions are slowly but steadily responsible for an increasing percentage of the cryptocurrency market. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made the recent local high at the level of $1,308 in extremely overbought conditions, so a pull-back towards the level of $1,236 was made. Currently, the bulls are again trying to resume the rally. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,305, but the next target for bulls is seen at $1,343. The momentum is again strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the short-term outlook remains bullish. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,345 WR2 - $1,317 WR1 - $1,305 Weekly Pivot - $1,289 WS1 - $1,277 WS2 - $1,261 WS3 - $1,233 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-06 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303690
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

The Ethereum Cryptocurrency Has Broken Below The Trend Line

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.12.2022 10:01
Crypto Industry News: In the US, there is a debate on the regulation of the cryptocurrency market. The bill currently being drafted by Senator Elizabeth Warren aims to transfer control of the industry to the SEC. Politicians want to impose new obligations on centralized exchanges. According to Jeffrey Sprecher, president of Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE), this will be good for investors. After the collapse of the FTX exchange, many American politicians and officials turned to cryptocurrencies again. Digital currencies have also returned as a topic for public debate. Speaking at a December 6 conference on financial services hosted by Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Sprecher said that cryptocurrencies should be "regulated and treated like securities." - What does it mean? Greater transparency, security of customer funds - he explained. He also argued that in the case of cryptocurrencies, new regulations would not necessarily be needed. He pointed out that the legal framework that applies to securities can be applied. These "will just be implemented more strongly." Senator Elizabeth Warren seems to think so too. It is known that he is working on a law on cryptocurrencies. This would give power over the market to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the media, the document also includes issues regarding taxes, national security in the context of using digital assets and the impact of mining on the environment. Warren also wants to impose new obligations on market entities by means of the act. It is about audits, financial statements and capital requirements similar to those known from the banking market. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has broken below the trend line seen around the level of $1,254 and made a new local low at the level of $1,1219. As the momentum is negative on the H4 time frame chart, the short-term outlook remains bearish with a target for bears located at $1,150 (28th November low). Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,345 WR2 - $1,317 WR1 - $1,305 Weekly Pivot - $1,289 WS1 - $1,277 WS2 - $1,261 WS3 - $1,233 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304187
We predict that nothing radical will happen in the crypto market by the end of the year says Geco.one COO

Ethereum gains from the hopes of Fed ending the tightening. According to FXStreet hodlers will massively sell their ETH sending the price to $1,073 area

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.12.2022 15:54
Ethereum price is set to slip further to the downside as the realization kicks in that the Christmas rally is a no-show. ETH is valued at $1,014 as global market dynamics are breaking down. With red lights flashing again, a massive snowball is rolling toward the markets and is set to cause many casualties. Ethereum (ETH) price was still pronged for a rally earlier this week as the situation in financial markets started to clear up. However, since Tuesday, reality has kicked in that the Christmas rally will not happen, similar to plenty of workers hearing that there will be no Christmas bonus or wage increase to pair the inflation spikes. Currently, correlations are breaking down in global markets as the US Dollar weakens, equities still sell-off and bond prices decline massively as investors exit markets in all asset classes. Read next: BMW Was Fined 30,000 Pounds By CMA, Google Wants To Become More Productive| FXMAG.COM ETH is in trouble and it could get ugly on the way down Ethereum price was riding a wave of hope as markets seemed to have factored in several elements that pointed to the Fed soon ending its hiking cycle, having a moderate recession or even missing out on that, and tying up with growth somewhere in the fall of next year. Markets realize it has been too easy and too quickly priced in as investors are backing away after several economic data numbers pointing to a toxic cocktail for global markets. Higher unemployment, massive layoffs, low to no growth and possibly contraction of several economies, mixed with a possible house pricing crash and sticky elevated inflation, make investors cash in and choose cash as their favorite place. ETH will see massive selling pressure, which will easily bring price action down to $1,073, testing the low of November. From there, it is just a few US Dollars towards $1,014, an intermediary limit aligned up that could do the trick for now. If selloffs start to accelerate in the Dow Jones with over a 1000 points loss on one day and weekly jobless claims in the US rising, expect ETH to exit $1,000 and start trading at $830.93 near the low of 2021. ETH/USD daily chart Markets could still return to their senses and start trading higher once the eventful week of next week is done. Markets will eagerly watch the Fed on Wednesday for any hopes or supportive messages from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cling in the remaining calm weeks of the year to still make some bucks. ETH, n that scenario, would be closing the year near $1,688.
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

PayPal And The Opportunity To Use Digital Assets For New Customers

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.12.2022 11:22
Crypto Industry News: PayPal has been focusing heavily on virtual tokens for some time now and is now announcing its entry into one of the European Union countries, namely Luxembourg. Recently, the company revealed that it is expanding its services, taking as its destination a small country in Western Europe, i.e. Luxembourg. According to the electronic payments giant, new customers will be able to buy, sell and, above all, store their digital assets on the company's accounts (platform). Initially, the list of tokens will include Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH) and, interestingly, Bitcoin Cash (BCH). These assets can be stored via a website or a mobile application on smartphones. The aforementioned service will be launched in the tax haven in the next few days. After that, eligible customers will be able to buy cryptocurrencies, starting with a minimum amount of 1 Euro. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has broken below the trend line seen around the level of $1,254, made a new local low at the level of $1,1219 and then bounced right back up towards the same trend line to test the breakout from below. As the momentum is negative on the H4 time frame chart, the short-term outlook remains bearish with a target for bears located at $1,150 (28th November low). Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,345 WR2 - $1,317 WR1 - $1,305 Weekly Pivot - $1,289 WS1 - $1,277 WS2 - $1,261 WS3 - $1,233 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-12-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304347  
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

The Ethereum Cryptocurrency Has Broken Below The Trend Line | Kazakhstan May No Longer Be The Center Of Bitcoin Mining

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.12.2022 10:15
Crypto Industry News: Kazakhstan may no longer be the center of bitcoin mining, which it was relatively recently. All because of the new mining regulations. The deputies passed the law "On Digital Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan" and other regulations regarding cryptocurrency mining. Recall that after China banned mining, Kazakhstan became one of the BTC mining centers in the region. All because of cheap electricity. But that may change now. Didar Bekbauov, co-founder of Xive, a cryptocurrency mining platform, notes that a total of five bills passed introduce a new scheme for purchasing electricity for miners, as well as updated licensing and taxation systems. BTC miners will only be able to buy surplus electricity from the public grid. Purchase of electricity through the Kazakh Exchange of the Energy Market Operator may also be carried out by them, but not everyone will be able to make this type of purchase, because electricity will be sold in the form of an auction. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has broken below the trend line seen around the level of $1,254, made a new local low at the level of $1,1240 (at the time of writing the analysis). As the momentum is negative on the H4 time frame chart, the short-term outlook remains bearish with a target for bears located at $1,150 (28th November low). Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-13 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304499
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Goldman Sachs may be buying crypto companies, Ethereum amid further updates

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 12.12.2022 14:27
Crypto.com releases audited Proof of Reserves. Ethereum’s developers prioritising staked ETH withdrawals. Starbucks testing customer loyalty programme with NFT collecting. Weekly Market Index Last week’s crypto market prices were flat at +0.51%, while volume and volatility dropped by -20.09% and -48.99%, respectively.     Weekly Performance Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) were down -0.9% and -1.8% in the past seven days, respectively. Other selected top-cap crypto tokens also mostly fell.         News Highlights Crypto.com released its audited Proof of Reserves, enabling users to verify that their crypto assets are fully backed (1:1) on the platform. Ethereum’s developers are prioritising staked ETH withdrawals for the network’s next major upgrade, Shanghai, delaying the implementation of The Surge, the network’s sequel to The Merge.  Goldman Sachs is reportedly looking to buy crypto firms amid current lower valuations. Starbucks launched a beta test of its Odyssey program, which combines customer loyalty rewards with non-fungible token (NFT) collecting and other gamified elements. Recent Research Reports Decentralised Social Networks: An Overview Social Graph and Digital Identity in Web3 Alpha Navigator (November 2022)  Research Roundup Newsletter (November 2022): In our latest Research Roundup, we feature trending market insights and our research reports on SocialFi and the decentralised social network landscape. Decentralised Social Networks: An Overview: Decentralised social networks aim to enable participants to take back ownership of and better monetise their content and data. We explore the project landscape. Social Graph and Digital Identity in Web3: Relationships and identities are key elements that make up social networks. In this report, we put a spotlight on the roles that decentralised social graphs and digital identity play in Web3 social. Alpha Navigator (November 2022): Risk assets were up in November, with the exception of crypto. Could potentially slower rate hikes provide some Christmas cheer? Catalyst Calendar             Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters   Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET Source: crypto.com
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

Arrest Of Sam Bankman-Fried, Former FTX President, In The Bahamas

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 13.12.2022 10:26
Crypto Industry News: What almost the entire cryptocurrency community expected has happened. Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested by the authorities in the Bahamas. This is the result of pressure from the US authorities. Information about the arrest of the former CEO of FTX was announced by the Bahamas Attorney General's Office and the country's Minister of Justice, Ryan Pinder. Bankman-Fried ended up in the hands of the Royal Police Force. This was demanded by the US authorities. The allegations against the businessman include securities fraud and money laundering, It is almost certain that ex-CEO FTX will now go to his homeland. US authorities are demanding his extradition. Pinder said the Bahamas would "promptly" consider any such request. A December 12 tweet from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York said authorities in the Bahamas had arrested Bankman-Fried on a sealed indictment due to be opened "in the morning." A few days earlier, New York prosecutors and FBI agents met with FTX lawyers. It was about discussing what documentation the investigators wanted to obtain for the trial. The U.S. Department of Justice is also "thoroughly" investigating whether FTX improperly transferred hundreds of millions of dollars around the time the company filed for bankruptcy (on November 11). Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has broken below the trend line seen around the level of $1,254, made a new local low at the level of $1,1240 and then got stuck inside a narrow trading range seen between the levels of $1,239 - $1,293. As the momentum is negative on the H4 time frame chart, the short-term outlook remains bearish with a target for bears located at $1,150 (28th November low). Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-14 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304677
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

The SEC Accuses Bankman-Fried Of Violating The Securities Act

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 14.12.2022 09:47
Crypto Industry News: On December 13, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and former CEO of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, which declared bankruptcy in early November. The SEC accuses Bankman-Fried of violating the Securities Act, which has been in effect since 1933, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The indictment from the SEC seeks to deprive the SBF of its right to participate in the issue, purchase, offer and sale of any securities except its own personal account. In the filed complaint, the SEC accuses him of developing and implementing a plan to defraud capital investors in FTX Trading Ltd. (FTX). The regulator notes that Bankman-Fried concealed the diversion of FTX client funds to cryptocurrency trading company Alameda Research. What's more, the defendant during this time raised funds from investors in the amount of over $ 1.8 billion. "We claim that Sam Bankman-Fried built a house of cards on the foundation of a scam, telling investors it was one of the most secure buildings in crypto" - SEC chairman Gary Gensler said. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has broken out to the upside from the consolidation zone and made a new local high at the level of $1,347. This is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through towards $1,400. The level of $1,308 will act as the technical support, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the odds for another leg up are high. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-15 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304868
Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Authorities In Australia Have Announced Their Intention To Regulate Cryptocurrencies In 2023

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 15.12.2022 09:58
Crypto Industry News: The global pressure to regulate cryptocurrencies shows no signs of abating. Authorities in Australia have announced their intention to establish a framework for licensing and regulating crypto providers in 2023. The move to regulate cryptocurrencies is part of the Australian government's broader goal of modernizing the financial system. This is according to a statement issued by Hon Stephen Jones MP, Deputy Treasurer and Finance Minister. In addition to its goal of establishing a framework for regulating cryptocurrencies, the government also plans to "update and strengthen the Australian payment system; strengthen its financial market infrastructure; and establish a regulatory framework for Buy Now, Pay Later. Cryptocurrency regulation has been an Australian focus since the collapse of FTX made headlines, with the Australian government stressing the importance of ensuring greater consumer protection as soon as possible. "These reforms are designed to ensure we have a financial system that works for consumers, businesses and investors - one that benefits the Australian economy and Australian people," Jones said in a statement. The finance minister went on to say that the previous government had "sat back" when it came to keeping up with market developments, especially when it came to new digital products and services. Accelerating regulatory action following recent events will be the goal of the Albanese Prime Minister's government. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has broken out to the upside from the consolidation zone and made a new local high at the level of $1,350. This is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through towards $1,400.So far the bulls are being rejected from this level, but during the pull-backs the market still trades above 100 SMA. The level of $1,308 will act as the technical support, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the odds for another leg up are high. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305053
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

Merkle Trees Have Proven To Be Highly Useful For Cryptocurrency Platforms

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 16.12.2022 12:21
Merkle trees are used in computer science applications as a data structure for data verification and synchronization. Merkle trees are also used to more securely and efficiently encrypt blockchain data in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.  With cryptocurrencies, a Merkle tree database is used to securely split the block's data and ensure that it is not lost, damaged, or altered. This method of data management makes it possible to validate specific transactions without downloading the entire, terabyte-sized blockchain. It is a reliable, secure, and cryptographic method of running the blockchain. As a result of the fall of the Centralized Exchange (CEX) giant, FTX, many CEXs have built and implemented Merkle Tree as a form of Proof of Reserves (PoR) to assure users that their funds are safe. In this article, we will be discussing what are Merkle trees, their role in blockchain and how a user can validate their funds using the Merkle tree. Who is the Founder of Merkle Tree? Ralph Merkle, a computer scientist renowned for his work on public-key cryptography, proposed Merkle trees in the 1987 paper "A Digital Signature Based on a Conventional Encryption Function". Cryptographic hashing was also invented by Merkle. What Is a Merkle Tree? Merkle tree is a hash-based mathematical data structure that compiles the summaries of all the transactions in a block. It is a method for quickly checking the accuracy of data in a decentralization manner. As a result of its functionalities, Merkle trees are utilized more effectively and securely to encrypt blockchain data.  Merkle trees are often used with peer-to-peer (P2P) networks because of the need to have information shared and independently validated. Let’s understand more about Merkle trees and how they work. Merkle Tree Structure The Merkle tree, also known as a hash tree, has a binary tree structure, with the hashes of the transactional data on the bottom row being referred to as "Leaf Nodes," the intermediate hashes being referred to as "Non-Leaf Nodes," and the hash at the top being referred to as the "Root." Even though the majority of hash tree implementations are binary (each node has two child nodes), they can also have a lot more child nodes. Source: Simplilearn When looking at the structure of a Merkle tree, all transactions are grouped in pairs. Each pair has a computed hash that's stored directly in the parent node. These nodes are also grouped into pairs, after which their hash is stored on the next level up. This process continues until reaching the root of the Merkle tree. Let’s take a look at each of the nodes: Leaf Nodes These are the hashes of each cryptocurrency transaction in a block, also referred to as transaction IDs (TXIDs). You view the transaction hash when you search for a transaction on a block explorer. Non-Leaf Nodes Then, to create a layer of non-leaf nodes above the leaf nodes, these leaf nodes are hashed together in pairs. They are known as non-leaf nodes because, in contrast to leaf nodes, they merely store the hash of the two leaf nodes that it represents and don't contain transaction IDs (or hashes). As a result, there will be half as many hashes (or nodes) in the non-leaf node layer above the leaf nodes as there are in the leaf node layer. As the tree narrows as it ascends, these non-leaf node layers continue to be hashed together in pairs, resulting in half as many nodes per layer. Two nodes will be present in the final non-leaf node layer. This creates the Merkle root and is the location of the last hashing in a Merkle tree. Merkle Root With Bitcoin, the hashes of all transactions are combined into a single hash and stored in the block header. The Merkle root, also known as the root hash, is this particular hash. The leaf nodes (transaction IDs/hashes) at the base of the Merkle tree can be verified using this Merkle root. When used for cryptocurrencies, the Merkle root makes sure that data blocks are unaltered, undamaged and whole. A Merkle tree is binary, which means that the total number of different leaf nodes must be even for the tree to be properly constructed. When an odd number of leaf nodes exists, the previous hash will be duplicated to provide an even number of nodes. Source: Techskill Brew How Does a Merkle Tree Work? A Merkle tree is essentially designed to break large pieces of data into considerably smaller chunks, which ensures that all the transactions can be verified promptly. The tree summarizes every transaction by creating a small fingerprint of a specific set of transactions, which makes it easier for users to verify the availability of transactions in a block.  Merkle trees are formed by hashing different pairs of nodes until just one hash remains, which is referred to as the Merkle root. These trees are built from the bottom up, with each transaction consisting of hashes. Every leaf node is a singular hash of data. As for non-leaf nodes, these are hashes of previous hashes. Let's say that a Merkle tree consists of four transactions which are labeled D0, D1, D2 and D3. Each transaction is hashed before the hash is stored directly on the leaf node. When this occurs, hash N0, N1, N2 and N3 are created. Any consecutive pair of leaf nodes will then be summarized in a parent node via the hashing of hash N0 and hash N1, which results in hash N4. If hash N2 and hash N3 are hashed together, hash N5 is created. Both of these hashes, N4 and N5, are hashed once more in order to create the Merkle root. This process can be used with extensive data sets. The Merkle root is responsible for summarizing the data that's present in specific transactions, all of which are stored directly in the block header. This technique results in data integrity being properly maintained. In the event that one detail within the transaction is changed at some point, the Merkle root will automatically change alongside it. Benefits of a Merkle Tree There are many benefits for blockchain technology and cryptocurrency platforms when using a Merkle tree to verify transactions, which include everything from efficient verification to easy tampering detection. Efficient Data Verification Process It's easy for transaction integrity to be verified in practically no time at all. Because of how the data is structured, very little memory needs to be used during the verification process and the computing power required is significantly reduced.  Because blockchains typically consist of hundreds of thousands of blocks, each of which can contain up to several thousand transactions, validating the data poses two major challenges: memory space and computing power. Every node on the network would have been required to maintain a complete copy of every transaction that has ever taken place on the blockchain if Merkle trees were not a concept in the blockchain. A node would have had to compare each entry line by line when verifying a transaction to ensure that its records exactly match the network records. The network's security could be jeopardized if there was any discrepancy between the records. As a result, to compare the records to make sure there had been no changes, the computer used to validate the data would have needed much more processing power.  Merkle trees, on the other hand, offer a solution to this issue by drastically reducing the amount of data that must be kept on hand for verification needs. They hash every entry in the ledger, effectively separating the data itself from the evidence supporting it. Without knowing every single TXID in a block, you can check a TXID using the Merkle root with a Merkle tree. A Merkle tree is essentially a great way to demonstrate that something is present in a dataset without having to download the entire set. Consequently, less computing power is needed to validate the transactions. Faster Processing Speed As a result of the distribution of the transactions on the block among the validators, each validator is working on a different transaction at the same time. Compared to a method where each transaction is sequentially validated after another, this is much more effective. Usage of Crypto Wallet Simple Payment Verification (SPV), which enables you to confirm a transaction without downloading an entire block or blockchain, is made possible by the Merkle tree. This enables the use of a light-client node, more formally known as a crypto wallet, to send and receive transactions. Detection of Any Tampering The hash structure makes it easy for miners to identify if tampering has occurred with transactions.  A distinct hash value is generated for each block using the Merkle root. The block links one block to another in the blockchain by including the hash of the preceding block. The hash of any transaction changes whenever that transaction is modified. The block becomes invalid as a result of this change because it cascades up to the Merkle Root and alters its value. This then causes a change in the hash of the following block, rendering the remainder of the Blockchain invalid. As a result, the Merkle tree creates an immutable record of the block's transactions. Double spending can also be prevented as a result. If an individual tries to double-spend his digital currency, a hash will be generated for that transaction. If that hash matches the existing records present on the Blockchain, that transaction is rejected. Why Are Merkle Trees Important in Blockchains? Merkle trees have proven to be essential for blockchain technology because they facilitate quick and easy verification in a manner that's not possible with other techniques. These Merkle trees provide developers with the ability to compress exceedingly large sets of data by getting rid of all unnecessary data, and turning the data that remains into hashes. The various features provided by Merkle trees include: Very lightweight structure Effective scalability Fuel efficiency Verification that transactions are included in a specific block Basic payment authentication Merkle Tree Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) As mentioned in the beginning, following the downfall of FTX, users have been concerned as to whether their funds are actually kept safe in CEXs. As a result, multiple CEXs have come forth to develop a Merkle Tree Proof-of-Reserve mechanism. In this section, we will be looking into Merkle proofs and how our users can validate their funds. Merkle Proofs A Merkle tree proof is a cut from a Merkle tree, not the actual tree. And be represented as an array or sequence (shown by the orange portion in the diagram below). All of the leaf nodes and the balance information for a particular single user of our company are represented by the figure's last level nodes. Assuming that the pink people in the figure represent the intended recipients of the proofs, we extract the orange portions of the figure level by level and present the proof documents to the users in order of height. It's significant to remember that the Merkle proof has two main components The direct parent nodes (i.e., B and D) of this user are not extracted. Provide the root node, i.e. Merkle root. Taking the volume of 10 million users as an example, the height of the tree can be calculated as Log2(10,000,000) = 23.2534966642 based on the mathematical formula, which gives the height of the tree as 24 levels. Therefore, the nodes in the graph that are intentionally not provided to users will be 24 - 2 = 22. Merkle tree is a complete binary tree, which allows us to calculate all of the information about its parent node by simply knowing the left and right nodes. Two parts make up this complete information: the balance data and the hash data. Balance Data: The parent node data can and can only be split to its lower left and right nodes. Hash Data: Only balance data, tree hierarchy data, and child node hash data will be present for each node (each node keeps summary data of the left and right nodes below it). The validation of the Merkle tree is computed by deriving the B and D and verifying that the balance is in accordance with the splitting principle; and the hash is legal. By utilizing a hash summary function, the Merkle tree enables users to determine whether they are a part of the entire tree without having to be aware of every purple node in the graph. The Merkle proof is exclusive to that user. For instance, a 24-level Merkle tree requires an array of 23 elements to verify the user's balance information, and this array can only confirm that the user's balance proof is accurate. The user cannot reconstruct the entire tree based on his or her fragmented information as long as they do not obtain more than half of the total number of users. As a result, the Merkle tree protects both user privacy and the company's ability to prevent the leak of information about the company's overall assets. Validating Your Bybit Account There are 2 methods available for you to validate your Bybit account and to check the validity of funds. Platform Validation Tool This method is the first and only one in the entire network, and it will show the node derivation process of Merkle Tree validation in an intuitive graphical manner on the company's platform. Self Validation Tool The company's Merkle tree generation source code and validation code are openly available on github to assist users in programming their own validation. The Merkle tree calculation process involves a huge amount of user calculations, which are usually implemented by big data and Java.  *An open Java code means that it is open to users without holding back any information. Bybit has open-sourced the following code for professional users to validate their own Merkle Tree proof file by copying it from their proof of reserves page to their own "sticky" version of the system via the Copy Data button and storing it as a file named myProof.json to local disk. Applications of Merkle Trees in Blockchain Merkle tree and Merkle root structures have already been widely adopted across many different blockchains and cryptocurrency platforms. The following details three such applications. Bitcoin Bitcoin uses Merkle trees in several ways, which makes these trees integral to the entire Bitcoin platform. In fact, these trees are present in every Bitcoin block header. The hash for every transaction that's available within the block is placed in the header. When it comes to Bitcoin, the Merkle root is important for mining as well as verification. Mining Bitcoin blocks consist of headers that contain metadata as well as an extensive list of transactions. This list is usually larger than the block's header. Miners hash data to create an output that adheres to specific conditions, which is necessary when validating a block. The miners can make trillions of separate attempts before they find a valid block. Every attempt requires a number in the header of the block to be changed. Even though thousands of separate transactions can exist in a block, each one must be hashed. Merkle roots allow miners to make this process much more efficient. When the mining process begins, all that's necessary is for the transactions to be made into a Merkle tree, after which the root hash can be placed within the block header. At this point, the miner is only required to hash the header of the block, as opposed to the entire block. Verification Another aspect of the Merkle root that's used with Bitcoin involves leverage, which focuses on light clients. When a node is being operated on a relatively weak device that has limited resources, users won't be able to download and hash every transaction in a single block. Instead, a Merkle proof can be requested, which is confirmation that a transaction is present in a block. By reducing the number of hashes that need to be performed during the verification process, verification can occur without using as many computing resources. Ethereum Ethereum is based on a somewhat modified version of the Merkle tree, which is why it's referred to as the Merkle Patricia tree. Every block within the Ethereum blockchain consists of three Merkle trees, as opposed to one binary tree — which is what happens in Bitcoin blocks. Each of the three roots has its own purpose. The initial root is considered to be the root of every transaction. As for the second root, it shows the state of the transaction. The final root is the receipt of the transaction. A user can look at a Merkle root to determine if a transaction is found on a specific block, as well as determine what their account balance is. Hyperledger Fabric When looking specifically at Hyperledger Fabric, this blockchain platform uses a Merkle tree to compute block data as a hash. The hash value identifies the width of the Merkle tree. Merkle trees on the Hyperledger Fabric platform work just like the ones on the Bitcoin platform. The Bottom Line Merkle trees have proven to be highly useful for cryptocurrency platforms that want to make sure their transaction verification process is as easy and efficient as possible. Without this structure in place, verification would be a time-consuming process because the data would need to be transferred throughout the entire network for verification. The platforms that use Merkle trees benefit from less bandwidth and computational power requirements.   Source: What Is a Merkle Tree & What Is Its Role in Blockchain? | Bybit Learn
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Microsoft Does Not Allow Cryptocurrency Mining On Its Online Services Without Prior Approval

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 16.12.2022 12:48
Crypto Industry News: Microsoft has updated the terms of its policies to highlight that it does not allow cryptocurrency mining on its online services without prior approval. The update went live on December 1 and applies to all users, including paid Microsoft customers. In the "Terms of use" section, Microsoft wrote that it requires users to obtain the company's written pre-approval in order to use any Microsoft Online Services for cryptocurrency mining. It seems that the only time a company would give written approval is for the "Testing and Investigating for Security Detection" purpose. The update prohibits users from mining and adding transaction records to proof-of-work blockchains on Microsoft's online services, largely related to the Microsoft Azure platform. Microsoft has reportedly said that its latest cryptocurrency mining restrictions are designed to protect online services from threats such as cyber fraud, attacks, and unauthorized access to customer resources. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made a new local high at the level of $1,350. This is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through towards $1,400. The bulls were rejected from this level towards the 100 SMA on the H4 time frame chart. The level of $1,308 will act as the technical support, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the corrective cycle might extend towards the technical support located at $1,240. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-12-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305226
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

When is the Ethereum Shanghai hard fork scheduled? According to Ritesh ETH may reach $1,312

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.12.2022 13:18
Ethereum Shanghai hard fork is scheduled for March 2023, after which the fork stakers/ validators can withdraw ETH from Beacon chain. Experts have estimated that 15 million Ethereum tokens, representing 12% of the total ETH supply can be withdrawn. Ethereum price is facing resistance at the $1,278 level, a break past this could push ETH towards the $1,312 level. Ethereum Shanghai hard fork’s tentative deadline is March 2023. Developers are working on an upgrade to introduce proto-danksharding to the Ethereum network through Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 4844 in May or June 2023. The outlook on the second-largest altcoin by market capitalization remains bullish and a Santa Claus rally is expected. Ethereum Shanghai hard fork precedes mass ETH token unlock Ethereum Core Developers Meeting on December 8 set a tentative deadline for the Shanghai hard fork. The Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade is set to introduce a bunch of critical updates and elemental changes to the blockchain’s Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) functionalities. In preparation for the Shanghai upgrade, the Ethereum Foundation released a pre-Shanghai testnet on October 14. ‘Shandong,’ the testnet was used to finalize the Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) that are expected to be rolled out in the actual update. EIP 4844 will go live post the Shanghai hard fork and introduce a new kind of transaction type to the altcoin. It is hoped the new type of transaction will free up space, increase transaction speed and lower gas fees. The upgrade involves a kind of interim sharding where "blobs" of data persist in the Beacon node for a short period of time. Blobs are small enough to keep disk use manageable. The changes that EIP 4844 will introduce are forwards compatible with Ethereum's scaling roadmap. Ethereum unloading made possible by EIP 4895 Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4895 will follow the Shanghai hard fork, this would allow users who participated in staking ETH into the Ethereum 2.0 contract to withdraw funds and staking rewards. The original plan was to implement a set of proposals – EVM Object Format (EOF) – including EIP-3540, EIP-3670, EIP-4200, EIP-4570, and EIP-5450 prior to token unlock. However, developers finally confirmed that the evaluation process could delay unlocking, therefore staked ETH can be withdrawn soon after the Shanghai hard fork. Shanghai therefore gives investors the first opportunity to unlock their ETH, some of which has been staked since 2020. After two years, the amount locked is over 15.5 million ETH, worth around $19 billion. Does this imply a massive sell-off in the largest altcoin? The ETH2 deposit contract has amassed 12% of the altcoin’s total supply. The increase in staked Ethereum coincided with the decline in exchange balances. Cryptocurrency balances have declined to 15% of the altcoin’s supply, while volume of staked Ethereum increases. Crypto intelligence tracker CryptoQuant presents the two below: ETH exchange and staked supply statistics A total of 15.5 million ETH has been staked in the deposit contract. Total value staked in ETH2 deposit contract There is a relationship between Ethereum’s exchange balance and staked ETH. As exchange balance decreases, volume of staked ETH increases. Ethereum’s exchange reserve is currently in a downtrend, this implies selling pressure on the altcoin is declining, there is room for a bullish breakout in the second-largest cryptocurrency. Ethereum exchange reserve Interestingly, the total supply of Ethereum started declining post the successful transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. The supply and demand dynamics are expected to shift further post the Shanghai hard fork and volatility in ETH price is imminent. It remains to be seen whether mass token unlock will see investors flooding exchanges with the second-largest cryptocurrency or continue staking it to earn higher rewards. In the former scenario a mass sell-off is expected to follow as selling pressure on the altcoin intensives with excess supply hitting exchanges. Higher liquidity is an opportunity to exit their position as well as scoop up more ETH at a discounted price. Experts are watching the Shanghai hard fork closely to determine Ethereum’s next move. Ethereum price outlook is bullish Ritesh, a crypto analyst and trader believes Ethereum is currently facing resistance at the $1,278 level and a successful breakout past this could push ETH to $1,312. In the chart below, the expert has identified a long-term downtrend in Ethereum. ETH/USDT perpetual futures Once Ethereum price crosses the $1,312 level, the next target is $1,350. This level has served as resistance for ETH this week, therefore it is key to a confirmation of the altcoin’s uptrend.
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

The Wider Community Around The Cryptocurrency Market Responded With More Amusement Than Enthusiasm To Donald Trump's NFT

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 19.12.2022 10:42
Crypto Industry News: Former president of the United States and billionaire Donald Trump is probably a person who needs no introduction. Recently, he decided to publish his own collection of non-replaceable NFT cards, decorated with his image. His collection of "baseball cards" sold out in less than 24 hours, which makes it a great success, considering the market sentiment of investors, in terms of the last few cold months. The wider community around the cryptocurrency market, however, reacted with more amusement than enthusiasm, because those who have been in the industry a little longer remember Trump's statements about digital assets, in which he simply called them a simple "scam". The collection was realized in various cards, some of which represented particular interests or sectors of the eccentric president's life. These included images of Trump dressed as an astronaut, a cowboy or a racing driver. Interestingly, "Trump Digital Trading Cards (NFTs) are for personal enjoyment only, not for investment purposes," the collection page explains. Despite this, individual cards, as a result of the draw, offered lucrative prizes to the winners, such as a zoom with the former president, or even a personal meeting and dinner. The collection had a total of 2,533 NFTs sold for $99 each, bringing the sale to over $250,000. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made a new local high at the level of $1,350 and then retraced more than 61% during the corrective cycle. The level of $1,350 is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through it on their way towards $1,400. The bulls were rejected from this level towards the 100 SMA on the H4 time frame chart and are consolidating around the level of $1,200 inside a Triangle pattern. The level of $1,217 will act as the technical resistance, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the corrective cycle might extend towards the technical support located at $1,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,222 WR2 - $1,201 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,181 WS1 - $1,169 WS2 - $1,160 WS3 - $1,139 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-20 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305414
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Faces A Steady Decline In Value

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 20.12.2022 09:46
Crypto Industry News: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust CEO Michael Sonnenshein in a letter to investors said that if the trust fails to convert into an exchange-traded fund (ETF), potential moves could include a call for a 20% stake (120,000 BTC) in a $10 billion trust fund. The fund, or rather its shareholders, currently owns approximately 633,000 BTC. A tender offer would in fact mean an appeal to shareholders to get rid of their shares within a strict time limit, effectively returning the value invested in the fund. Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust was originally planned as an exchange-traded alternative to buying BTC. It also intensively applied for the status of an ETF fund, engaging a discount or premium to the net asset value (NAV). The premium or discount describes the difference in value between the shares in the mutual fund and the value of the underlying asset held, in the form of Bitcoin. When the value of the trust shares is higher than the underlying bitcoin, this is considered a bonus. When the value of the stock falls below the underlying bitcoin, it is considered a discount. Currently, the fund is traded at a discount of almost 50% to the underlying asset. Investors have had to consider various options recently as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust faces a steady decline in value, extending losses to record lows and fueling the fears of already nervous investors. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made a new local high at the level of $1,350 and then retraced more than 61% during the corrective cycle. The level of $1,350 is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through it on their way towards $1,400. The bulls were rejected from this level towards the 100 SMA on the H4 time frame chart and are consolidating around the level of $1,200 inside a Triangle pattern. The level of $1,217 will act as the technical resistance, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the corrective cycle might extend towards the technical support located at $1,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,222 WR2 - $1,201 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,181 WS1 - $1,169 WS2 - $1,160 WS3 - $1,139 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305577
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

Ethereum Will Continue Its Upward Movement Today

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.12.2022 12:09
The past week has been just as tough for Ethereum as it has been for Bitcoin. The altcoin formed the biggest bearish candle since the beginning of November and made a bearish breakout of the $1,250 support level. The next target for sellers was the $1,200 level. Over the weekend, trading activity subsided, which allowed ETH to move into a consolidation phase and absorb free coin volumes. As a result, as of December 20, the cryptocurrency began testing the $1,200 support level. In case of a downward breakdown of this level, the asset risks going to a retest of $1,000. BTC and ETH It is impossible to consider the price movement of Ethereum at the current stage of the market without comparing it with the dynamics of Bitcoin. Assets move head to head and show similar signals on technical metrics. On Bitcoin, we have seen buying activity leading to a defense of the $16.6k level. We see a similar situation on the Ethereum charts, however, unlike BTC, there is an activation of bears near the $1,220 level. However, in general, the bulls managed to accumulate solid volumes at the very start of the trading day, which happens infrequently, given the strategies of the Asian region. Given the bullish morning, it is likely that with the opening of U.S. markets, the situation will improve. Ethereum on-chain activity As of writing, the sharp activation of buyers is not supported by the growth of on-chain activity for several days. This may indicate manipulation by the market maker, who needs to keep the price above the $1,200 level. At the same time, it is quite acceptable that the on-chain activity of the cryptocurrency will begin to grow with the upward movement of ETH/USD. However, if the price of ETH continues to rise without a parallel increase in activity in the altcoin network, then the altcoin price increase should be considered manipulation and a bull trap. ETH/USD Analysis There is reason to believe that Ethereum will continue its upward movement on December 20. The technical metrics of the asset indicate the emergence of a local upward trend. On the daily chart, there is an increase in sales volumes and reversal of the RSI metric upward. The stochastic oscillator formed a bullish crossover near the green zone and also turned up. These signals confirm the presence of active buyers, and therefore we should expect a retest of resistance levels. The price of ETH/USD is moving towards the $1,220 level, which is a key resistance zone. The bulls have already managed to absorb some of the bearish volumes, but sellers have stepped up near the $1,200 level. On the 2-hour chart, we see a gradual expiration of the bullish potential, which was more likely a reaction to the $1,150 level spike. Moreover, we see a flat RSI and stochastic, which indicates a weakening of the bullish momentum and a gradual decrease in buying activity. Results Ethereum managed to defend the $1,200 mark, but the bears tested the $1,150 level. This triggered a backlash from buyers and buying back bearish volumes, which prevented the price from gaining a foothold below $1,200. However, as of wriritng, the bullish momentum begins to fade, and the advantage gradually shifts to the bears. Despite this, the altcoin has chances for further growth with the corresponding BTC price action and bullish sentiment in the stock market. ETH will not be able to gain a foothold above $1,220 without additional market maker moves and before the opening of U.S. trading. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330282
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Ethereum has not reached its swing low for half a year. However, it does not indicate that the asset will see a promising future

Vladislav Tyumenev Vladislav Tyumenev 20.12.2022 14:49
Have Bitcoin and Ethereum hit their bottoms? Will BTC and ETH hold above support levels after FOMC decisions? During turbulent times, every FOMC meeting may become crucial for investors and speculators, giving hope for a bright future. On December 13-14, the Fed raised the key rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.5%. It has been the seventh rate hike since the beginning of 2022 when the rate stood at 0.25%. Date of meeting Rate December 14, 2022 4.50% November 2, 2022 4.00% September 21, 2022 3.25% July 27, 2022 2.50% June 15, 2022 1.75% May 4, 2022 1.00% March 16, 2022 0.50% January 26, 2022 0.25% The pace of rate hikes slowed down in December but the market has barely noticed this. As a rule, such news boosts prices in financial markets but this time, we witnessed the opposite reaction. What did go wrong? Firstly, economists expected a slowdown in Fed’s rate hikes back in the fall. Secondly, the regulator adjusted its forecasts for future rate hikes. By the end of 2023, the key rate may reach 5.1% against the previously forecasted figure of 4.6%. Besides, the outlook was adjusted for 2024 and 2025. The Fed remained hawkish and markets plunged. Markets at the moment: NASDAQ100 -2.5% S&P500 -2.0% BTCUSD -2.5% ETHUSD -2.0% Investors' fears were reasonable as the regulator confirmed that it did not plan to halt rate hikes in the near future. High interest rates may remain for a long time. This fact is likely to limit the growth potential of the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market. At a recent press conference, Jerome Powell said that the regulator would continue combating high inflation. Powell also confirmed that the key rate would not be lowered in September 2023. The main points of Jerome Powell's speech: We have covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment It will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path What we're writing down today is our best estimate of what we think that peak rate will be based on what we know Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data The strong view on the Committee is that we'll need to stay there, you know, until we're really confident that inflation is coming down in a sustained way What should investors be ready for? If the Fed continues monetary policy tightening, the US stock market is unlikely to turn bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, if stocks move sideways or plummet, it may damage the crypto market as it is strongly correlated with US tech stocks. Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts Overall market picture: Bitcoin has not reached a new low for 25 days Ethereum has not reached a new low for 181 days BTC gained 14% from the swing low on November 21 ETH gained 24% from the swing low on June 18 The Fear & Greed Index stands at 31 points, indicating bearish market sentiment Bitcoin analytical review The price returned to $18,000. It should be perceived as a bounce from the low of the downtrend. The level of $15,000 offered support. Despite the fact that the price soared by almost $3,000, a reversal is unlikely to occur. The asset is still trading within the downtrend and may hit a new low. Thus, BTC may still hit a new bottom. The Fed and its monetary policy significantly affect the market trend. Developments in the crypto industry have an influence on the crypto market too. The ongoing FUD has been amping up the downtrend since the beginning of the year. The market has not recovered from the collapse of one of the largest crypto exchange, FTX. Thus, investors are raising concerns about the largest crypto-exchange, Binance, which is accused of possible money laundering and violation of sanctions. Read next: The Bank Of Japan's Decision To Allow 10-Year Government Bonds Caused Turmoil In The Financial Markets, USD/JPY Trading Below 133| FXMAG.COM This news background harms the entire industry, as a result, it limits the possible growth of the crypto market. In this connection, if BTC dips to $15,000, the downtrend may continue. This is likely to open the way to $13,000 and $10,000. Ethereum analytical review Ethereum has not reached its swing low for half a year. However, it does not indicate that the asset will see a promising future. In fact, ETH has been declining since mid-August when it touched the resistance level of $2,000. Since then, the asset has already lost 35%. As a result, the price returned to the swing low. The psychological level of $1,000 still acts as support. In June, this strong level put strong pressure on bears and prevented the price from falling below. Traders bet on a trend reversal near this level. Meanwhile, if ETH drops below $1,000, the medium-term downtrend may continue.
Cross-Chain Interoperability Solutions Have The Potential To Significantly Improve

All You Should Know About MakerDAO, Uniswap, Compound, Curve, Aave And Yearn Finance (YFI)

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 21.12.2022 09:05
Decentralized applications (DApps) have been growing in popularity since 2020, with web3 projects such as Uniswap and Illuvium causing widespread ripples in the markets. Many of these projects are hosted on the Ethereum blockchain, and they run through DApps. In this article, we’ll look at some of the best DApps and web3 projects to use with your Bybit Wallet. What Is a DApp? A decentralized application (DApp) is a software application that runs on a blockchain. Unlike internet-based applications, DApps don't need a centralized database to function. They run on Ethereum, but they also operate on other blockchains that generate smart contracts, such as EOSIO and TRON.  There are many types of DApps. Some include decentralized finance (DeFi), GameFi and NFT.  What Is the Bybit Wallet? Bybit Wallet is a web3-compatible custodial wallet that aims to provide users with easy access to various DApps on the Bybit Web3 Portal.  With the Bybit Wallet, you can discover all sorts of DeFi DApps, NFT collections, GameFi programs and more. To create your own Bybit Wallet, sign up for a Bybit account, and click on Connect Wallet. As a trusted crypto exchange that prides itself on next-level reliability, Bybit aims to provide a seamless experience that doesn’t require you to have a seed phrase. Bybit will hold the private key to your wallet, and with Bybit’s industry-grade security, rest assured that your funds will be kept safe. Some of the benefits of having a Bybit Wallet are: Cross-chain compatibility Private key management Airdrop management (digital assets collected automatically for you on the blockchain) Access to NFT marketplaces Access to DeFi products (swaps, earning and lending) Decentralized identity management After your Bybit Wallet is set up, head over to the Bybit Web3 Portal to view all compatible DApps. As Bybit aims to equip its readers with web3 knowledge, they can click on each DApp and view its respective background information. Bybit also offers guides and tips to read up on for web3. Now that you know how to create your Bybit Wallet, let’s explore the best DApps that will be compatible. Best DeFi DApps to Use With Bybit Wallet MakerDAO MakerDAO was launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017. It’s a lending platform on which users can borrow the stablecoin Dai, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar. The key to MakerDAO's success as a lending platform has been its decentralization. As with all DApps, MakerDAO has no borders. People around the world can use it. No one is subject to identity or credit checks, as they would be if they used a lending service through a bank. As its currency, Dai (symbol: DAI) uses cryptocurrencies as collateral, including ETH and any other Ethereum-based asset approved by MKR holders.  The cryptocurrency is locked until a user repays the loan and any incurred fees. Once they do, the collateral, ETH for example, will be released. However, if the ETH price drops below the price at which it was acquired, it will be sold off to pay the Dai that has been borrowed, plus any penalties. These liquidations, or the threat of them, help to stabilize the governance of the MakerDAO system.  Uniswap Uniswap, a decentralized exchange (DEX), allows anyone to participate in the transactions of ERC-20 tokens without the governance of a centralized body or intermediary. It gives permissionless access to financial services, thus staying true to the decentralized ideals of the Ethereum blockchain.  Since Uniswap is based on the Ethereum blockchain using smart contracts, it replaces traditional exchange functions — for instance, order books with their own automated and permissionless liquidity pools executed by algorithms. These liquidity pools are pairs of ETH and ERC-20 tokens exchanged by traders. On Uniswap, users are incentivized to provide liquidity to these pools by being rewarded with a trading fee share. In other words, when users supply liquidity, they’re given liquidity provider (LP) tokens that track how much liquidity they contributed. This method of providing liquidity eliminates the need to rely on market makers. One advantage of using Uniswap, or other DEXs, is that they're inexpensive. They also require minimal maintenance because they’re hosted on a blockchain.  Compound Compound, another borrowing and lending DApp built on the Ethereum blockchain, allows users to borrow and lend cryptocurrency from each other. All transactions are conducted through a smart contract protocol. Lenders can earn interest from cryptocurrencies by adding to the liquidity pool. To do so, users must first connect an Ethereum wallet, such as MetaMask.  Compound tokens are called cTokens. If a user deposits ETH, they’re given cETH in return. Likewise, if a user deposits USDT, they receive cUSDT in return. The cTokens allow users to track the value of the assets they’ve lent, as well as the interest accrued. While interest from each token will fluctuate, depending on the supply and demand of its native cryptocurrency, it’s still more than the interest offered by a traditional savings account. And Compound, like other DApps, doesn’t require identity checks; it also offers lower transaction fees. Moreover, the risks in borrowing are minimal, as assets are overcollateralized (a security measure in which borrowers put forward more assets than is needed as collateral).  Curve Curve is a DEX that quickly became popular. Like Uniswap, it uses automated liquidity pools. But unlike Uniswap, it’s explicitly designed to exchange stablecoins and Bitcoin-backed ERC-20 tokens, such as Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC). Therefore, its maintenance costs are lower, and so are its fees.  Curve’s interface isn't designed for the mainstream user, as its use is so specific. Hence, not too many investors or traders want or need to exchange stablecoins. Just as with Uniswap, users can earn rewards for adding to the liquidity pool. Curve is also popular with yield farmers because of its high use of stablecoins in yield farming.  Although Curve's creators claim the lack of assets that can be exchanged increases its operating efficiency, the fact that you can only exchange stablecoins (and Bitcoin-backed ERC-20 tokens) can also be a disadvantage, at least from a user's standpoint.  dYdX Unlike other DEXs based on the Ethereum blockchain, dYdX lets you lend, borrow and trade cryptocurrencies on margin. The two types of margin trading are isolated margin and cross-margin.  Besides margin trading, users can lend assets to accrue interest and conduct regular asset trading. Some minimal miner-taker fees apply to trading.  Furthermore, users can earn interest by lending assets to other users. As with other lending DApps, the risk to the lender is low because of over-collateralization. For borrowing, the minimum collateralization ratio on dYdX is 125%. Aave Aave is another borrowing and lending DApp built on the Ethereum blockchain. Its users can lend their assets, and earn interest in the process. To do this, they must connect their Ethereum wallet to the DApp in a process similar to Compound’s.  However, Aave distinguishes itself from the rest through its additional flash loan feature. Practically speaking, these loans are valid for one blockchain transaction, allowing for uncollateralized debt. How is this possible? The transaction is reversible at any time if the loan isn’t repaid. Assets for flash loans are sourced from smart contract pools. The interest rates on Aave for flash loans are at only 0.30%. And flash loans pave the way for arbitrage opportunities. The way it works, traders can get a loan, make an arbitrage trade, then pay back the loan and any accrued interest.  Yearn Finance (YFI) Yearn Finance, launched in July 2020, is one of the newer kids on the block, and one of the most popular DeFi DApps. Yearn is a yield aggregator that automatically searches DeFi DApps on the Ethereum blockchain for the best yield returns. The YFI token saw remarkable price rises after being launched at $739. Over the course of two months, its price shot up rapidly, reaching over $43,000 by September 2020. Analysts chalked it up to the confidence those in the DeFi space have in Yearn Finance, which has an expanding array of products.  Vaults, its main product, enables users to deposit their cryptocurrency and earn yields in return. It employs more complex strategies to get yields than Earn, the first product of Yearn Finance, which is how the term (“yEarn”) was born.  Synthetix  Synthetix allows users to speculate on the price of real-world assets — currencies, stocks and precious metals — as well as other crypto assets, with ERC-20 tokens. The tokens, known as synthetic assets (or “synths), can track the assets' prices. As with MakerDAO, whose users need to lock up ETH as collateral to create its stablecoin, Dai, users on Synthetix need to lock up Synthetic Network Tokens (SNX) as collateral to create the platform's native stablecoin, Synthetic USD (sUSD).  To acquire the real-world information of the assets' prices, Synthetix has teamed up with Chainlink and its oracle technology to provide decentralized price feeds.  Source: 18 Best DApps & Web3 Projects to Use With Bybit Wallet | Bybit Learn
DPX Token Registered A 24-Hour Return Of 11.11%

Azuki - Anime-Themed NFTs, CryptoPunks, NFTfi And More NFTs Noteworth

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 21.12.2022 09:06
Best NFT Collections/DApps to Use With Bybit Wallet Ethereum Name Service (ENS) Ethereum Name Service (ENS) is a naming system launched in 2017 that runs on the Ethereum blockchain. ENS essentially translates crypto wallet addresses that are usually complex and filled with strings of alphanumeric characters into much simpler, more readable wallet names. ENS domains are built on Ethereum smart contracts which makes them more secure than traditional DNS. As a decentralized, open-source service for the community, ENS focuses on providing a trustworthy domain name for Web3 users of the Ethereum blockchain. Although ENS domains end with .eth, each one is unique, which results in them being NFTs. And since they’re ERC-721-compliant, you can trade these ENS domains on many NFT wallets and marketplaces. This is also one of the reasons why ENS is one of the best DApps — it’s compatible with many wallets, including the Bybit Wallet. Bored Ape Yacht Club  Almost everyone has heard of Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) — regardless of whether they spend time in the crypto space — because that’s how popular this NFT collection is. BAYC is a collection of 10,000 unique NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain, featuring profile pictures of cartoon apes with varying accessories and styles. It’s garnered such a strong fan base that celebrities such as Snoop Dogg, Justin Bieber, Madonna and Paris Hilton are in on it. Additionally, the BAYC team has created an entire ecosystem around the original collection featuring a Mutant Ape Yacht Club (MAYC) collection, Bored Ape Kennel Club (BAKC) collection, Otherdeed as land for their metaverse, and even an ERC20 token known as APE. BAYC NFTs don’t just make good profile pictures, they also double as a membership card to the Yacht Club, granting holders access to exclusive benefits. As of May 2022, BAYC surpassed $2 billion in sales. BAYC remains one of the most popular NFT collections to date, making it one of the best NFT collections to invest in. CryptoPunks CryptoPunks is another highly popular NFT collection built on the Ethereum network. It features 10,000 unique characters in 8-bit style. As one of the first NFT projects on the Ethereum network, CryptoPunks grabbed the attention of investors who wanted to be part of the hype. Furthermore, it was CryptoPunks that introduced the concept of ERC-721 tokens — a standard that dictates each token is unique and non-interchangeable — to the world.  Due to the NFTs’ singularity, demand for them quickly exceeded supply, driving prices up. This resulted in many CryptoPunks holders making windfall profits from trading their NFTs. CryptoPunks gained even more attention following its collaboration with Tiffany & Co. in August 2022, with the latter turning the NFT collection into physical pieces of jewelry for crypto enthusiasts to purchase. A custom collection of 250 NFTs in this NFTiff collection, priced at 30 ETH each, sold out within 22 minutes. Successful buyers could redeem their NFT for a physical pendant and chain. Although they launched back in 2017, CryptoPunks NFTs remain in demand and high in value, and are still one of the best NFT collections to consider. Azuki Azuki is a collection of anime-themed NFTs launched in January 2022 that quickly amassed $300 million in sales by February 2022. Just like BAYC, Azuki NFTs grant their holders access to an exclusive metaverse called The Garden. This virtual world is where members can look forward to streetwear collaborations, NFT drops, live events and other activities. Azuki’s popularity is also attributed to its strong relationship with anime, which has gained increasing international attention over the years. As mentioned, Azuki has plans to release streetwear collaborations. Azuki NFT holders can purchase Azuki clothing, merchandise and accessories. This ties in well with existing anime fans, who love purchasing anime collectibles. Furthermore, Azuki has a strong focus on community ownership. It believes in maintaining a vibrant community for its project to thrive. As such, it provides well-moderated online social channels for fans to interact and discuss the project, to which they all belong. With its art style, real-world merchandise and emphasis on community ownership, Azuki remains one of the most popular NFT DApps in the crypto market. OpenSea OpenSea is the largest peer-to-peer NFT marketplace in the world. The platform was launched in 2017 and allowed users to exclusively buy and sell rare digital collectibles in a quick and trustless manner. The NFT marketplace managed to close 2020 with roughly $21 million in trade volume but was quickly surpassed within the first two months of 2021, soaring to over $14 billion in the next year. Additionally, OpenSea is integrated with multiple blockchains like Ethereum, Polygon, Solana and Klaytn which could eventually drive even more volume toward the NFT marketplace. With the launch of Seaport, an open-source smart contract created for OpenSea and NFT fanatics, users can now transact NFTs in bundles even if they are in different token standards (ERC-20, ERC-721, etc). Listings may also choose to support partial fills of offered items or even opt for auction mechanics such as English and Dutch auctions. Despite the emergence of other NFT markets after OpenSea, the platform continues to hold the title as the greatest NFT marketplace due to its unrivaled trading volume, overall revenue and sheer number of users on the platform. OpenSea will soon be compatible to use with Bybit Wallet. Blur Blur is a brand new NFT marketplace that rose to fame after raising $11 million from renowned investors such as Paradigm. The newly launched platform saw an all-time high volume of $18.8 million in 24 hours within just two months of its release. The team behind Blur is focused on targeting professional NFT traders and has created a different mechanism compared to other NFT marketplaces. Blur allows traders to set their own royalties easily and does not charge any fees when transacting on the platform. This is great for traders as they get to earn a portion of every sale transacted even after selling the initial NFT while avoiding platform fees from eating into their profits. The NFT marketplace also has an aggregator that allows you to analyze and purchase a group of NFTs at once from different marketplaces. This allows professional NFT traders to sweep the floor of any collection with a single click rather than buying them up individually on various platforms. Apart from saving time and effort, the aggregator feature will also save them a huge amount of fees as individual purchases come with many hidden costs on top of the gas fees they would have to pay per transaction. Blur has the ability to expand its user base as NFTs become more widely adopted. The team will also need to find a way to maintain its commitment to NFT traders while making its platform more user-friendly for a larger audience in order to challenge OpenSea in the future. As with OpenSea, Blur is an NFT DApp that will soon be compatible to use with Bybit Wallet. LooksRare LooksRare is one of many NFT marketplaces that run solely on the Ethereum blockchain. Launched in 2022, LooksRare prides itself as a “community-first” NFT marketplace that actively rewards platform users and token stakers with its native token to incentivize participation on the platform. Since then, LooksRare has managed to gain market share on OpenSea and is averaging around half of its competitors daily volume, amassing more than $26 billion in total trading volume. This was due to several factors: lower fees, a highly incentivized reward system and revenue sharing which allows the NFT marketplace to stand out and differentiate itself from its competitors. While LooksRare currently does not have an NFT minting function, the platform does offer other interesting features such as the ability to purchase entire collections, purchasing an NFT with specific traits instead of filtering them out, and the option to cancel multiple open orders in a single transaction. With such an impressive entrance into the NFT space and a solid reward system, LooksRare has been able to scale massively in such a short period. It is worth keeping a lookout as the platform has huge potential to grow, filling the gaps created by OpenSea and maybe even outperforming them one day. Users can expect to use their Bybit Wallet with LooksRare soon. NFTfi NFTfi is a decentralized marketplace for users to make the most out of their NFTs by collateralizing them to finance transactions through liquid assets. Due to the illiquid nature of NFTs, the team has combined the idea of DeFi and NFTs to increase the liquidity among NFT traders while trying to attract new users into the space. Following in the steps of popular lending platforms like Aave and MakerDAO, NFTfi allows for NFT lenders to leverage on their collections to earn yield. Borrowers can also take up loans and borrow ETH or DAI by putting up their NFT as collateral. NFT lending provides the much-needed liquidity to increase activities and volume in the ecosystem. Additionally, NFTfi provides other features such as NFT fractionalization and NFT derivatives. NFT fractionalization is the process of sharing ownership of an NFT among thousands or millions of users, allowing retail investors to gain exposure to blue-chip NFT collections like BAYC or CryptoPunks. On the other hand, NFT derivatives represent tradable contracts that provide leverage and let users place directional bets on future NFT prices. With these new instruments offered by the platform, NFTfi remains one of the biggest NFT lending platforms in the space that has helped to unlock a whole new world of liquidity for NFTs for existing and future users. Do take note that while NFTfi cannot be used with Bybit Wallet at the moment, integration will soon be available. Source: 18 Best DApps & Web3 Projects to Use With Bybit Wallet | Bybit Learn
After consolidating between $73 support and $81 resistance for more than three weeks, Litecoin broke out of this pattern by breaking its lower limit

After consolidating between $73 support and $81 resistance for more than three weeks, Litecoin broke out of this pattern by breaking its lower limit

Geco One Geco One 21.12.2022 12:38
Bitcoin (BTC) Increasingly optimistic macroeconomic data and rising expectations for the Fed's pivot have seen Bitcoin rise by nearly $2,900 or 18.7% recently, returning to the previously defeated support (now resistance) of $18,500 and measuring 50% Fibonacci retracement from the earlier downward impulse observed in response to information about the collapse of the FTX exchange in the first half of November. However, a more hawkish than expected tone of the announcement and statements by CEO Jerome Powell after the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC) meant that there was a slight supply reaction during Wednesday's trading, which, combined with concerns about liquidity problems that may affect the Binance exchange contributed to BTC falling below USD 17,000. In the near future, Bitcoin may return even to the November lows of USD 15,600. However, this does not necessarily mean its permanent return to the downward path. Financial markets are still pricing in that the Federal Reserve will make just two more rate hikes of 25 basis points each at its meetings in February and March next year before moving from tightening to normalizing before the end of next year (September and December 2023). year) to make the first interest rate cuts. However, there are many indications that the near future of Bitcoin (and not only) will depend not on economic data and monetary decisions of the Federal Reserve but on reports on the financial condition and state of reserves of the Binance exchange. Because it is the world's largest virtual asset exchange platform, its possible collapse could cause an actual collapse, the scale of which would be at least several times greater than the sale caused by the collapse of the FTX exchange in the first half of November. For the entire cryptocurrency market, it would be a blow that would contribute to the loss of investor confidence, resulting in extending the cryptocurrency winter that has been going on for over a year, not by weeks or months, but by years. Therefore, until Binance proves that the state of reserves reflects the actual balances of exchange users' accounts and does not effectively repel concerns about possible liquidity problems, the cryptocurrency market will be dominated by horizontal and downward trends. Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum's quotations have recently increased by almost 26%, overcoming the horizontal resistance in the region of USD 1220 and returning to the previously defeated uptrend line, where a supply reaction appeared last Wednesday. The persistent rejection of this level led to a clear downward move, with ETH falling below the technical support of $1,220. If the sale continues, the cryptocurrency could move towards USD 1,100 in the near future or even further to USD 1,000. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash recently fell below the technical support of $106. Since breaking one support usually signals the potential for further declines to the next, in this case, we could expect further depreciation towards USD 97 or even below USD 90 in the near future, which would be the lowest level since November 2022 one the lowest since December 2018. Litecoin (LTC) After consolidating between $73 support and $81 resistance for more than three weeks, Litecoin broke out of this pattern by breaking its lower limit. A dynamic downward rally made the LTC exchange rate quickly find itself in the area of the next support between USD 61.30 and USD 64.50. However, if this barrier is also broken, one should prepare for further depreciation towards USD 56.70 or even USD 50. Polygon (MATIC) The price of the Polygon cryptocurrency has fallen by almost 17% over the past few days. This sell-off brought the MATIC exchange rate back to the uptrend line, from which it has bounced several times in recent months. It is worth noting, however, that the demand reaction around this support this time is definitely weaker than those we have observed. This also increases the chances of breaking this level, which in turn would threaten further declines. If the currently tested uptrend line is broken, the MATIC could continue to rally south towards the $0.74-0.76 zone or even further to $0.70 or $0.61. XRP The supply pressure observed in the broad cryptocurrency market is also visible on XRP quotations. After a slight upward correction, the exchange rate of this cryptocurrency rebounded from the previously defeated support (now resistance) of USD 0.42, and for some time, we have been observing its decline again. There are many indications that XRP will soon return to the August, September and November lows of USD 0.32. However, if that support is broken this time, the sell-off could continue to the $0.30 mark, which would be the lowest level since July 2022 and one of the lowest since January 2021.
The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 22.12.2022 14:20
Crypto Industry News: Despite the ongoing cryptocurrency crash, the number of "dead" coins has decreased 3 times in 2022 compared to 2021. A new study has revealed the number of cryptocurrencies that have fallen short of expectations since their launch in 2022. The CoinGecko website counted about 950 cryptocurrencies in 2022 that were considered "dead" or "failed projects", according to a study published on November 29 this year. Determining the number of dead cryptocurrencies, the study highlighted that it reviewed cryptocurrencies that may have been off-site due to lack of trading activity in the past two months. At the same time, tokens were declared dead after being tagged for fraud or deactivation requests. The study shows that the number of dead coins in 2022 is significantly lower than in 2021. In 2021, over 3,000 such cases were counted, and this year "only" 951. The study found that the large number of dead coins in 2021 can be linked to a large influx of Doge and Shiba coins. It is worth noting that most "meme coins" had no significant value to the anonymous developers, and also required more involvement in their development. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to the level of $1,227. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The intraday volatility is very limited. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,222 WR2 - $1,201 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,181 WS1 - $1,169 WS2 - $1,160 WS3 - $1,139 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305976
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Could Extend Its Downside Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 10:35
ETH/USD rebounded after its sell-off. The rebound was natural as the price could test and retest the immediate resistance levels before dropping deeper. It's trading at 1,222 at the time of writing below yesterday's high of 1,236. In the last 7 days, ETH/USD is down by 4.21% but it's up by 0.85% in the last 24 hours. BTC/USD's rebound helped the price of Ethereum to rebound as well. ETH/USD Natural Growth! Technically, the rate plunged after taking out the dynamic support represented by the uptrend line. Staying below the pivot point of 1,230 could announce a new sell-off. On the contrary, a bullish closure above this immediate obstacle could announce further growth in the short term. The descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) represents a dynamic resistance. Testing and retesting this line could announce a new downside movement. ETH/USD could extend its downside movement as long as it stays below this line. ETH/USD Forecast! False breakouts above the weekly pivot point could announce a new sell-off. This could represent the first short opportunity. As long as it stays under the upper median line (uml), the rate could still be attracted by the median line (ml) Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306139
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

The Ethereum Has Retraced 38% Of The Last Wave Down

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 23.12.2022 10:46
Crypto Industry News: The world of cryptocurrency has been informed that the court, specifically the US justice of the peace, Gabriel Gorenstein, approved the release of Sam Bankman-Fried on bail of $ 250 million. Samuel will be placed under house arrest and will live with his parents in their home in California. According to the information, the possibility of bail and being under house arrest was a condition of Sam's voluntary extradition, which he made a deal with federal prosecutors. On release, the SBF agrees to abide by 'strict' rules, namely not being able to hold a passport (very surprising), agreeing to undergo regular mental health checks and must wear an electronic monitoring device. What's more, he will also not be able to open new lines of credit during this time. Following Samuel's appearance in a Manhattan court yesterday, where he was charged with one of the largest financial frauds in US history, the SBF pleaded not guilty and completely denied all charges against him. Read next: According To The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Cities In Europe And Canada Are The Best To Live In| FXMAG.COM Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to the level of $1,227. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The intraday volatility is very limited. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,150. On the higher time frame, like weekly, there is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,222 WR2 - $1,201 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,181 WS1 - $1,169 WS2 - $1,160 WS3 - $1,139 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306144
Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

Now you can view Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) prices on Twitter

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 23.12.2022 22:15
Daily Top Mover — Mask Network (MASK)   U.S. equities whipsawed, reversing all their gains on Wednesday, with tech stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia being the loss leaders. No significant economic data were released overnight, while investors are waiting for the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index out on Friday. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has experienced extraordinarily low volatilities recently, with Bitcoin and Ether moving sideways and up 0.1% and 0.74%, respectively, in the past 24 hours. The top mover for today, MASK, which registered an 8.7% increase in the past 24 hours, has clearly underperformed the market in the wake of its acquisition of Mastodon Server, Pawoo.net.     MASK is the native token of Mask Network, a software to allow users to encrypt their messages on Twitter and other Web2 social media platforms. Mask Network, founded in 2018, rose to fame following Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter. MASK was included in the Bluebird Index, which consists of tokens that may benefit from Twitter’s acquisition. On this note, Elon’s friendly attitude towards crypto and Web3 may likely lead to more integration in the future, spurring investors’ interest in the lesser-known MASK. Furthermore, Mask’s acquisition of Pawoo.net, a server on the decentralized social media platform Mastodian, has likely contributed to the recent outperformance, as Pawoo.net has 800k users, the vertical integration between Pawwo and Mask may create positive synergy.     Market Check   Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for MASK/USDT!   Talk of the Town     Twitter has added Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price indexes to its search function, allowing users to easily check the current prices of these two popular cryptocurrencies. This update was announced on Dec 22, 2022, by the Twitter Business account and is one of the latest moves by the social media platform to expand its crypto features on the platform. This function is not only limited to crypto, and users will also be able to see price support charts for other major listed assets. The social platform’s account also revealed that they would be refining their user experience and coverage of symbols in the coming weeks.    Check out what else is buzzing in the crypto scene today:   U.S. Senate introduces a new stablecoin bill. (Link)   Former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX co-founder Gary Wang have pleaded guilty to criminal charges. Sam Bankman-Fried is now in FBI custody. (Link)   Brazil’s crypto regulation takes effect. (Link)   SEC Chair Gary Gensler claims the crypto crackdown is just getting started. (Link) Source: Bybit Blog | MASK Rises Following Pawoo's Aquisition; Twitter Expands Twitter Features
Residents Of Brazil Will Not Be Able To Use Cryptocurrencies As Legal Tender

Residents Of Brazil Will Not Be Able To Use Cryptocurrencies As Legal Tender

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 27.12.2022 08:41
Crypto Industry News: Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's president, who is due to leave office on December 31, has signed a bill to legalize the use of cryptocurrencies as a payment method in the country. In a December 22 publication of the official journal of the Federal Government of Brazil, Bolsonaro's office reported that the president had signed Law 14,478 after being approved by the Chamber of Deputies. The Legislature sent the bill to the president's desk on November 29 as the final step to recognize crypto payments. Under the bill, residents of Brazil will not be able to use cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as legal tender in the country, as is the case in El Salvador. However, the newly passed law includes many digital currencies as part of the definition of legal payment methods in Brazil. It also establishes a licensing system for virtual asset service providers and sets out penalties for fraud with digital assets. Bolsonaro's announcement did not suggest which federal agency might be responsible for overseeing crypto payments. However, as in the United States, digital assets considered securities fall under the regulatory umbrella of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission. The law also included provisions, likely introduced in response to FTX's demise, requiring exchanges to distinguish between user and company assets. The cryptocurrency law will come into force in 180 days, probably in June 2023. Bolsonaro is expected to leave office in a few days, after which Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will assume the presidency on January 1. Luiz was the president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and has previously spoken out in favor of cryptocurrency and blockchain adoption. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to this level, consolidating the recent gains. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The intraday volatility is very limited. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,150. On the higher time frame, like weekly, there is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,240 WR1 - $1,230 Weekly Pivot - $1,221 WS1 - $1,212 WS2 - $1,201 WS3 - $1,184 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306402
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

The Crypto Industry Will Need Some Time To Fully Recover From The Collapse

Paolo Greco Paolo Greco 28.12.2022 08:25
On the 4-hour TF, it is evident that bitcoin has deviated below the ascending trend line, but overall, since the most recent collapse, it has been mostly moving sideways, which is exactly what we anticipated. Remember that the "collapse-flat-collapse" trading strategy will be used in 2022 when bitcoin is traded. As a result, despite crossing over the trend line, a long flat can now be seen. There are additional unfavorable projections from reputable market participants in addition to the statements made by JP Morgan, which we discussed in the previous article. Remember that individuals like Mark Cuban have a personal stake in the success of the first cryptocurrency ever created, so it stands to reason that they will exert every effort to increase demand. The rise in demand for bitcoin will determine how much it grows in the future. No demand, no expansion. Kuban's viewpoint is therefore undoubtedly very interesting, but we have grown accustomed to bitcoin owners only predicting the currency's future growth. I have a valid concern: why would Cuban and others advise someone to purchase a good that will "unquestionably increase in value"? Wouldn't it be simpler and better to purchase every coin available yourself to make the most money later? The truth is that for bitcoin to experience explosive growth, as many investors as possible should purchase it. Now, nobody wants to purchase it. The crypto industry will need some time to fully recover from the collapse of the FTX exchange, according to the analytical firm CryptoCompare. The company's experts also claimed that numerous other businesses were linked to the bankrupt exchange through loans and the FTT token, which is now, of course, worthless. As a result, CryptoCompare concludes that there may be new bankruptcies in 2023. Additional failures of significant market participants might cause "bitcoin" and other cryptocurrencies to fall even further. Therefore, even the internal fundamental background does not justify purchasing bitcoin. This is in addition to the general fundamental background that is currently working against cryptocurrencies in the face of the Fed and other Central Banks. The decline, in our opinion, will eventually continue. Anyhow, there isn't even a single buy signal at the moment. The first cryptocurrency ever traded with very little volatility and only moved sideways over the past few days. The quotes for "bitcoin" very quickly completed the formation of an upward trend on the 4-hour time frame and consolidated below the trend line. As a result, we are currently anticipating a new cryptocurrency drop with a target of $12,426. It might take place right now or in a few months. There are still no indications that bitcoin will experience rapid growth in the near future.   Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330915
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Big Institutional Investors Continue To Largely Stay Away From The Crypto

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 28.12.2022 10:42
Crypto Industry News: Big institutional investors continue to largely stay away from the crypto market as asset class volatility challenges money managers, Jared Gross, head of institutional portfolio strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in an interview: "As an asset class, cryptocurrencies are virtually non-existent for most large institutional investors. [...] Volatility is too high, no internal return to point to makes it very difficult," noted Gross. Gross believes that most institutional investors "breathed a sigh of relief that they did not jump into this market", which is unlikely to happen in the near future. The bear market also put an end to the idea that Bitcoin could be a form of digital gold or serve as a hedge against inflation, Gross noted, stating that it is obvious that this is not the case. The year coming to an end was a period of dramatic declines in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin fell from $47,700 in January to below $17,000 at the end of December, while Ethereum fell from $3,700 to $1,200 over the same period, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell from $2.2 trillion to nearly $810 billion. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to this level, consolidating the recent gains. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The intraday volatility is very limited., nevertheless the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,150 and if the level of $1,183 is broken, this will be the next target for bears. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,240 WR1 - $1,230 Weekly Pivot - $1,221 WS1 - $1,212 WS2 - $1,201 WS3 - $1,184 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-12-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306569
According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

According To Dmitry Medvedev, Cryptocurrencies Will Gain In Importance

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 29.12.2022 10:30
Crypto Industry News: Dmitry Medvedev, one of Russia's most important politicians, believes that the traditional fiats - the US dollar and the Euro - will lose their importance. The reverse process will take place in the case of digital currencies. Dmitry Medvedev - a Russian politician who was the country's president in 2008-2012 - believes that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank may collapse in 2023. He suggested that such events could reduce the impact of the Euro and dollar and increase the use of digital currencies. Tron founder Justin Sun agreed with Medvedev's "revelatory comment". He also maintains that China's cryptocurrency adoption is gradually increasing and that "the best is yet to come." Medvedev also claims that the Bretton Woods system, which is the foundation of US power, may eventually be destroyed. "The Bretton Woods money management system will collapse, leading to the collapse of the IMF and the World Bank. The Euro and dollar will cease to circulate as global reserve currencies. Digital fiat currencies will be used instead," he said. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to this level, consolidating the recent gains. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The intraday volatility is very limited., nevertheless the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,150 and if the level of $1,183 is broken, this will be the next target for bears. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,240 WR1 - $1,230 Weekly Pivot - $1,221 WS1 - $1,212 WS2 - $1,201 WS3 - $1,184 Read next: The US Will Require PCR Testing For Travelers From China, BRF Agree To Pay $111 Million To The Government| FXMAG.COM Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306735
Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Ethereum Could Drop Deeper As The Bias Remains Bearish

Ralph Shedler Ralph Shedler 30.12.2022 08:53
Ethereum is trading in the red at 1,192 on the H1 at the time of writing. You knew from my previous analysis that the price developed a bearish pattern. Still, the altcoin moved somehow sideways in the short term, so we'll have to wait for a fresh opportunity. ETH/USD is down by 0.30% in the last hour and by 2.26% in the last 7 days. It tried to rebound in the short term only because BTC/USD bounced back. ETH/USD Rising Wedge Violated! As you can see on the H1 chart, ETH/USD escaped from the Rising Wedge pattern but it found support on the 1,182 former low. It retested the weekly pivot point of 1,201 which stands as an upside obstacle. Technically, as long as it stays below the upper median line (uml) of the major descending pitchfork, ETH/USD could drop deeper as the bias remains bearish. ETH/USD Forecast! Ethereum seems undecided in the short term. Still, a valid breakdown below 1,182 could open the door for more declines.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306845
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

The Microstrategy Company Sold A Batch Of BTC For The First Time

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 30.12.2022 09:51
Crypto Industry News: Microstrategy currently holds approximately 132,500 bitcoins. In December, the company bought another batch of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, however, it turned out that it had sold some digital assets for the first time. Michael Saylor, founder and CEO of the company, tweeted: "MicroStrategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by approximately 2,500 BTC. As of 12/27/22, MicroStrategy has approximately 132,500 bitcoins purchased for approximately $4.03 billion at an average price of approximately $30,397 per bitcoin." In its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Microstrategy explained that 2,500 coins were acquired between November 1 and December 24 by its subsidiary Macrostrategy. The subsidiary purchased approximately 2,395 BTC at an average price of $17,871 per coin. This happened between November 1 and December 21. She then sold around 704 BTC at $16,776 per BTC (this happened on December 22). On December 24, she bought around 810 BTC at $16,845 a coin. It is worth noting that the company sold a batch of BTC for the first time. However, it is not about exiting the market, but about "generating tax benefits". Everything is to be based on "current federal income tax rules." Michael Saylor, the company's founder, said in an interview last week that "the most positive thing this year" is that bitcoin has been recognized as an "institutional grade digital asset." Added to this is "the clarity that there is one cryptocurrency asset that is a digital commodity." He noted that both the SEC chairman and the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have confirmed that bitcoin is a commodity. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to this level, consolidating the recent gains and testing the intraday supports seen at $1,180. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The intraday volatility is very limited., nevertheless the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,150 and if the level of $1,183 is broken, this will be the next target for bears. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,240 WR1 - $1,230 Weekly Pivot - $1,221 WS1 - $1,212 WS2 - $1,201 WS3 - $1,184 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306859
Technical Outlook Of The Further Movement Of Bitcoin

Bitcoin And Ether Have Not Shown Signs Of A Trend Reversal

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 30.12.2022 13:49
Macro and Overall Risk Sentiment In a week without major economic data releases, the outlook for U.S. equities remains dim as concerns over a possible recession in 2023 and declining earning projections from major index heavyweights dampened investors’ sentiment. It’s noteworthy that the focus in the mainstream media has shifted from inflation worries to recession woes.  Interestingly, the broader cryptocurrency market has experienced extraordinarily low volatility as equities experience large price swings, with BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT pairs ending the week with decreases of 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.   Learn more on Binance.com BTCUSDT Perpetual Bitcoin broke down from a consolidation channel that has formed since November and has since moved in a narrow range between $16.5k and $17k. A bearish pennant, which features a shoot-down followed by an ascending triangle, has been forming after the breakdown. However, there are still bright spots indicating that a downside is limited as professional traders have turned cautiously optimistic. With open interests in terms of BTC at a stable level, the funding rate weighted by open interests has persistently remained positive, indicating an absence of widespread bearish bets on the largest cryptocurrency. Furthermore, the daily basis between the BTC spot and the nearest quarterly futures has flipped to positive, changing from a deep backwardation to a contango, painting a positive near-term picture. The long-short ratio of top trader accounts in centralized exchanges showed the bull has persistently taken the upper hand, suggesting an improved trader sentiment.  Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for BTCUSDT! ETHUSDT Perpetual A downward trend has been observed in Ether’s 4-hour chart, facing an immediate resistance level at a 20-day EMA of $1,218. From the technical point of view, RSI remained within a neutral area on the daily chart and the Average Directional Movement Index, a technical indicator that measures the overall strength of a trend, remained below 20 in the past week, indicating a lack of direction in the market.  The bright spots are a stable and positive reading of the perpetual funding rate, while the daily basis of Ether between spots and the nearest quarterly futures is close to the neutral level in centralized exchanges. Similar to BTC, Ether has not shown signs of a trend reversal, but the downside may be limited.  Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for ETHUSDT! Market Movers (Week-on-Week) BITUSDT (+16.5%) LDOUSDT (+7.2%) ICPUSDT (+5.6%) XCNUSDT (-32.9%) LPTUSDT (-21.7%) WAVESUSDT (-20.2%) New Derivatives Listings — What’s New on Bybit? Trade with up to 25x leverage on our new trading pairs: MAGICUSDT BTCUSD0630 ETHUSD0630 Source: Bybit Blog | Market Turns Cautiously Optimistic After BTC and ETH’s Breakdowns
The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

The Central Bank Of India Became The Most Vocal Critics Of The Cryptocurrency Industry

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 02.01.2023 10:21
Crypto Industry News: Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank, announced on December 29 in its report that cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and show a high correlation with equities in a way that casts doubt on claims that virtual digital assets are an alternative source of value due to their alleged inflationary gains. India's central bank has warned that policymakers around the world are concerned that the cryptocurrency sector could become more aligned with mainstream finance and "divert attention away from traditional finance with a wider impact on the economy." The Central Bank of India is one of the most vocal critics of the cryptocurrency industry. Last week, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das warned that private cryptocurrencies will cause another financial crisis if their use is not banned. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 38% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading close to this level. The 100 SMA is seen at the level of $1,246, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,183. Please notice the spike in the momentum indicator on the H4 time frame chart to the positive territory. Read next: Walmart Has Ambitions To Become An E-Commerce Leader| FXMAG.COM Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,232 WR1 - $1,220 Weekly Pivot - $1,205 WS1 - $1,191 WS2 - $1,178 WS3 - $1,152 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306990
It seems that less-than-expected Ether hodlers want to unstake

According to experts, Ethereum "has a better underlying economic model"

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.01.2023 15:34
Ethereum network outperformed Bitcoin more than fourfold with 408.5 million ETH transactions in 2022. Bitcoin still remains the most searched cryptocurrency in 2022 and reported steadier transaction volume in its network. Ethereum's diversified ecosystem and web3 investment opportunities set it apart from the largest asset by market capitalisation. The Ethereum network surpassed Bitcoin in total transaction volume in 2022. While the largest asset by market capitalization managed to retain its dominance in online search interest and steady transaction Experts compare large market cap cryptocurrencies in web3 like Bitcoin and Ethereum and conclude that ETH has a better underlying economic model, compared to other assets. Projects and protocols in Ethereum’s ecosystem with the token economics (real value) and right product market fit could add new features and earning opportunities and continue to garner interest from investors. Ethereum network takes the lead with higher investment opportunities than Bitcoin Ethereum network outperformed Bitcoin in total number of transactions on its blockchain in 2022. ETH network tackled 408.5 million transactions against 93.1 million on Bitcoin’s blockchain. Based on data from Nasdaq and Yahoo charts, the average daily transactions were around 1.1 million for ETH and 255,000 for BTC. Ethereum and Bitcoin transaction count in 2022 The transaction volume on Bitcoin was steadier and more periodic than Ethereum. Data reveals higher volatility in transaction volumes on Ethereum’s blockchain was due to spikes in demand at NFT launches and minting of blue-chip digital collectibles. Read next: 2023 Predictions: Natural gas prices in Europe and the US may in the nearterm struggle to find upside momentum with inventories staying elevated due to mild winter weather and consumers curbing demand| FXMAG.COM Interestingly, Ethereum’s higher transaction volume can be attributed to a higher number of investment opportunities in the altcoin’s ecosystem. Ethereum offers massive web3 investment opportunities, unlike Bitcoin Fred Wilson, a Venture Capitalist in New York argues that web3 firms are likely to react to the 2023 recession similar to traditional finance firms. Typically, traditional finance firms raise funds to tackle the negative impact of recession and sustain their business. Large capitalization cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum could attract more interest from investors, however, of the two, the outlook on ETH is more bullish. Wilson argues that ETH has the best underlying economic model of any web3 asset. Web3 sector is expected to go through a triage and projects with no product market fit, weak or no token economics could fail in 2023. While there is a large overhang in web3, the VC expects a spike in selling pressure on web3 tokens for at least the first quarter of 2023. The Ethereum ecosystem has several digital collectibles, art, and real-world utility projects in web3 that continue to garner attention from investors. This tilts the scales in favor of ETH as the altcoin offers massive investment opportunities in web3 to investors, through crypto winter, the spreading FTX contagion and the anticipated recession in 2023.
Headwinds which have overshadowed Solana - "the Ethereum Killer"

Headwinds which have overshadowed Solana - "the Ethereum Killer"

Kucoin Blog Kucoin Blog 03.01.2023 23:17
Crypto Market Overview According to Glassnode data, long-term Bitcoin holders have an unrealized loss of 6,057,858 bitcoins this year. From being touted as a revolutionary solution to Ethereum’s scalability issue to being a part of a larger domino effect, Solana has been one of 2022’s worst-performing assets, losing around 96% from its all-time high. However, Solana still has many things to offer, including a vast array of blockchain projects. The rapid decline in the price of Bitcoin has harmed both short-term and long-term investors. According to Glassnode data, long-term holders lost 6,057,858 bitcoins as of December 26 compared to short-term holders who lost 1,889,585.   Also, the correlation between large transactions of $1 million or more and overall BTC price strength are now at their lowest levels since December 2020.     Whale to BTC Price ratio | Source: Santiment   Additionally, the Oregon Division of Financial Regulation (DFR) issued a press statement warning cryptocurrency investors that phony websites and applications set up by con artists are intended to steal their money and provide nothing in return. Before transmitting money to cryptocurrency trading platforms, the DFR advised traders to "do their homework."   The DFR cited as an example a website claiming to be run by the US Department of State. The website stated that it was attempting to assist FTX customers in recovering their assets, according to the DFR. As a result, the website obtained data from an investor, including usernames and passwords.   It will be interesting to see how much fuel the bears have in their tank in 2023 with the current underwhelming microeconomy in their favor.     Source: Coin360 | Crypto Heatmap   Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers Top Altcoin Gainers Internet Computer (ICP) ➠ +8.44% Terra Classic (LUNC) ➠ +6.19% Lido DAO (LDO) ➠ +5.85%   Top Altcoin Losers Chain (XCN) ➠ -33.07% Solana (SOL) ➠ -23% Axie Infinity ➠ -16.15%   Fear and Greed Index at 28, Market Sentiment Remain Bearish The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is ending the year in the fear zone (28) as investors prepare for a shaky 2023. There are lots of things to deal with; inflation, recession, the FTX saga, rising mortgage rates, and increasing personal debt.     Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative   What Is Happening to Solana? From being touted as a revolutionary solution to Ethereum’s scalability issue to being a part of a larger domino effect, Solana has been one of 2022’s worst-performing assets. On December 29, the price of the Ethereum Killer hit its lowest levels since February 2021 and is suffering from a scarcity of developers, as many of them are fleeing to competitors. How did this high-flying, VC-loved cryptocurrency fall from its exalted position?   There are three distinct reasons for Solana’s fall from grace. Let’s look at each.   FTX Exposure At this point, it is starting to get fishy. How was FTX able to gain the trust of even prominent players in the crypto space? Well, we’ll probably answer that next year; but for now, we will look at how Solana got exposed to FTX.   A Solana statement released in November showed that FTX controlled over 50 million SOL. This is through a linear monthly unlock system which saw the Solana Foundation give FTX 4 million SOL on August 2020, 12 million SOL from September 2020, and nearly 34.52 million SOL from Jan. 7, 2021.   Although the SOL tokens are vested, with the last unlock due by January 2028, The FTX bankruptcy hearing might see a freeze on the Solana tokens.   Security Breaches This year, over $8 million has been lost to hacks across Solana-based hot wallets and Solana-based smart contracts. The latest was seen in August 2022 when users reported on Twitter that their hot wallets had been drained. The 10-minutes window of draining saw over $6 million lost from about 8000 wallets.   According to blockchain researcher PeckShield, the widespread theft is most likely the result of a "supply chain flaw" that has been exploited to steal user private keys from affected wallets on August 2.   Solana’s Achilles Heel - Network Outages Since its launch in 2020, the Solana network has seen a number of network disruptions that have been caused by a variety of various congestion and spam events. The network has experienced at least seven outages this year alone, with the longest lasting for 17 hours. While the culprit has been low transaction fees, digging deep reveals a bigger foundational flaw.   Surprisingly, the co-founder claimed Solana is primarily a communication protocol, and SOL is not money. This is perhaps why several protocols and developers are fleeing to other networks like Snowfall, Polygon, and even Cardano.     Daily Active Developers on Solana | Source: Token Terminal   Solana's Potential With all that being said, Solana is still one of the most popular projects for builders and blockchain projects. Its transaction speed and cheaper gas cost is still more than a valuable asset for protocols that require speed and numerous transactions to execute their smart contracts.   On top of that, when it comes to pricing, some analysts have been comparing this drop to Ethereum's drop in 2018-2019, when ETH dropped 95% before soaring again.   Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week ➺ 28/11/2022 - MMO Coin AMA ➺ 28/11/2022 - Orbs AMA with Kucoin Japan ➺ 30/11/2022 - Badger DAO Community Hall ➺ 2/12/2022 - Step App Conference 2022   Solana (SOL/USDT) Technical Analysis Solana’s price action in 2022 has been less than optimal to say the least.   2022 has been one hell of a year for the Solana project. SOL’s price has been incredibly volatile, with the crypto reaching $121 in March 2022. This impressive rally was largely driven by the announcement of several major partnerships that enabled Solana to become one of the world's most widely used blockchain platforms.   However, with the overall bearish crypto market pressure, the token plummeted ever since, with its price closing in June at $30. Following this downtrend, the token started to consolidate for the next four months, and its price remained at $30 till the end of October.   Then came the FTX collapse, where SOL lost 50% of its value in a single week - the first week of November. Remember Sam Bankman-Fried (FTX founder) was an active advocate of the Solana project? That negatively impacted the token’s price and the overall project’s reputation. This Thursday, the token again saw a sharp drop in its value (10.4%), with the project losing its protocol. Overall the value of SOL got dropped by ~95% this year.     SOL/USDT Chart on the Daily Timeframe | Source: KuCoin   On the weekly timeframe, all the major technical indicators and oscillators suggest a strong sell for the SOL token, with RSI reaching 30 and beyond. However, the 5-min and 15-min timeframes show a few green candles as buyers try to take advantage of the sudden price drop. If you are scalping SOL, keep a keen eye on the 8.7 & 8.9 support levels.   All that said, Solana has proved its fundamental strength before and the innovation it brings to the blockchain world. So it could be interesting to see the SOL’s price action in 2023.     Sign up on KuCoin, and start trading today!   Follow us on Twitter >>> https://twitter.com/kucoincom.   Join us on Telegram >>> https://t.me/Kucoin_Exchange   Download KuCoin App >>> https://www.kucoin.com/download   Also, Subscribe to our Youtube Channel >>>Listen to 60s Podcast Source: KuCoin
Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

Another Blow To The Cryptocurrency Industry, Ferrari Removal Of Velas From Its List Of Partners

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 04.01.2023 10:02
Crypto Industry News: The uncertainty caused by the decline in the cryptocurrency market and a series of turbulent bankruptcies is also spreading to the Formula 1 industry, one of the most important cryptocurrency partners. The declining value of NFTs (Non Fungible Tokens) in F1 has caused Ferrari, one of the well-established F1 teams, to drop support from its crypto-sponsor Velas. By announcing on its website that it had removed Velas from its partner list, Ferrari became the second F1 team after Mercedes to terminate its sponsorship deal with the cryptocurrency company. Ferrari's removal of the cryptocurrency brand Velas from its list of partners marks another blow to the cryptocurrency industry, which continues to lose ground in F1. The Italian team announced a partnership with Velas at the end of 2021, at a time when F1 teams seemed eager to make deals with cryptocurrency companies. However, the landscape has changed dramatically over the last twelve months and cryptocurrencies have significantly lost value in the eyes of Formula 1 teams. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 50% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading above to this level. The technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,259, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278 and 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,274. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,183. Please notice the spike in the momentum indicator on the H4 time frame chart to the extremely overbought market territory. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,232 WR1 - $1,220 Weekly Pivot - $1,205 WS1 - $1,191 WS2 - $1,178 WS3 - $1,152 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307298
The Momentum Of Bitcoin On The Daily Time Frame Chart Remains Positive

Bitcoin is fourteen year old! PricePrediction forecast BTC exchange rate in a month at $15,532

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.01.2023 09:41
Bitcoin lost 0.5% on Tuesday but started Wednesday with a substantial gain, adding more than 1.3% to $16.8K. The current levels are one-week highs and send the price to the area above the 50-day moving average. These are new signs that the prolonged sideways slide is ending, and one should be prepared for higher volatility, and this time it may be the altcoins that come to life first, not the first cryptocurrency. Ethereum is adding over 3.5% since the start of the day, making a solid move above its 50-day moving average and testing the highs of the last three weeks. Here we see a large amplitude of gains, which increases the chances of a break of the downtrend. At the same time, traders with a more distant outlook would prefer to wait for confirmation in the form of a rewrite of the previous highs near $1350. Despite the bear market, the level of fraud and hacks in the cryptocurrency industry will not diminish in the new year, according to CertiK Crypto-asset monitoring service PricePrediction predicted the bitcoin exchange rate in a month at $15,532, which is about 7% lower than the current value of BTC. Last year was more of an ice age than a crypto winter, said Circle's head of strategic development Dante Disparte. However, he is optimistic: bankruptcies and industry clean-up could be a boon for the crypto market in the long run. Despite the bear market, the level of fraud and hacks in the cryptocurrency industry will not diminish in the new year, according to CertiK, a blockchain security-focused analyst firm. Fraudulent schemes and techniques have been worked out, and the market is vulnerable. Fourteen years ago, on January 3, 2009, a person (or group of people) under the alias Satoshi Nakamoto launched the leading bitcoin network by mining a genesis block of 50 BTC. The first transaction occurred on 12 January 2009 - Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney.
Serum Was Once The Largest Decentralized Exchange On Solana But Now Serum Drop Due To FTX Collapse

Serum Was Once The Largest Decentralized Exchange On Solana But Now Serum Drop Due To FTX Collapse

ByBit Analysis ByBit Analysis 04.01.2023 13:17
Daily Top Mover — Serum (SRM) Major U.S. equity indices started the first 2023 trading session on a sour note. Tesla’s stocks plunged by 12.24% in the wake of poor December delivery numbers, dragging down the Nasdaq Composite index to round off the day with a -0.76% return. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market behaved unimpressively, with Bitcoin and Ether both down 0,05%, in the past 24 hours. The top mover for today, SRM, which registered a 24-hour return of 30.9% as of the time of writing, has outperformed the market, likely due to FTX’s unfolding saga and the praise from Vitalk on Solana.  Learn more on Binance.com SRM is the native token of the decentralized exchange Serum built on Solana. Before FTX’s collapse, Serum was once the largest decentralized exchange on Solana, whereas other DeFi protocols lean on its liquidity to build innovative products. Serum was backed by Sam Bankman-Fried, and therefore leading to the plunge of SRM following FTX’s fallout. The outperformance of SRM overnight was likely due to revived hope that the FTX situation was less serious than claimed by current CEO John Ray III, where $3.5 billion worth of FTX assets may be safely kept by Bahamian authorities. However, as an investment project, Serum is not a creditor to FTX’s bankruptcy, and positive news from FTX’s unfolding saga is unlikely to improve Serum’s fundamentals.  What’s more, SRM surged, together with other tokens in Solana’s ecosystem, in the wake of praise from Vitalik on the Solana developer community in the past weekend. However, this is unlikely to continue in the long term as the Solana community is working on a Serum fork, OpenBook, to replace the original Serum project.  Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data for SRM/USDT! Talk of the Town ( Source: https://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/news/2023/html/a_new_years_letter_from_the_president_3.html ) Amidst the current bearish conditions in the crypto scene, popular Japanese firm Square Enix remains focused on the development of multiple blockchain games. In November 2022, the company behind popular Web2 franchises such as Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest announced its first Web3 game in the form of a digital collectible art project, Symbiogenesis, where players will decide whether to share or keep unique data and attempt to uncover a story. The game is set to be launched in Spring 2023. Meanwhile, President of Square Enix, Yosuke Matsuda, revealed in this annual 2023 letter that the company is preparing to release more Web3 project titles this year. Matsuda also emphasized his confidence in Web3, stating his hopes “that blockchain games will transition to a new stage of growth in 2023”.   Read next:Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM Check out what else is buzzing in the crypto scene today: Gemini accuses DCG’s Barry Silbert over frozen funds on Germini Earn. (Link) Italy approves 26% tax on cryptocurrency gains. (Link) The Bahamas Securities Commission claims the current FTX CEO has made “material misstatements” when alleging collusion between FTX and the Bahamian government. (Link) SBF pleads ‘Not Guilty’ to all Charges as Judge grants redaction of bail signers’ identities. (Link) December was 2022’s lowest month in terms of hacking proceeds. (Link) Source: Bybit Blog | FTX’s Unfolding Saga Buoys SRM Token; Square Enix Continues Focus on Web3  
On Wednesday morning total crypto market capitalisation was below $800bn

On Wednesday morning total crypto market capitalisation was below $800bn

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 17:10
Wednesday morning saw a small rise in the price of digital gold. The price of one bitcoin is equilibrating at $16,836 at the time of writing. Despite registering consistent gains and setting seven-day highs during the previous two trading days, the cryptocurrency ended Tuesday's trading session in negative territory. The minimum price of Bitcoin for the past day was $16,622, according to CoinMarketCap, a website for tracking the prices of digital assets. By the way, the coin's value dropped 3.3% in December 2022. The value of the BTC has decreased by roughly 65% since January of last year. At the same time, the cryptocurrency's price has dropped by more than 70% since November 2021, when it updated the historical record. Many other virtual assets have also fallen significantly from their previous levels at the same time. Crypto Market The primary rival to Bitcoin, Ethereum, also saw a slight increase on Wednesday. The price of the coin is $1,226 as of this writing. Except for the Tether stablecoin, all cryptocurrencies from the top 10 by market cap were traded in the green on the previous day. Ethereum (+0.91%) experienced the best results at the same time. The cryptocurrency Ethereum (+1.01%), one of the top ten strongest digital assets, led the growth list according to last week's findings, and XRP (-5.14%) dominated the decline list. The Solana token took the first spot in the list of the rise among the top 100 most capitalized digital assets over the last day, according to CoinGecko, the largest global aggregator of data on virtual assets, and the OKV coin performed the worst (-2.57%). Read next: We are preparing to see the S&P500 decline in the first weeks of the new year down to 3600 | FXMAG.COM According to the previous week's results, the digital asset Chain (-15.81%) had the worst performance among the top 100 most powerful digital assets, while BitDAO (+37.46%) had the best. According to CoinGecko, as of Wednesday morning, the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $772.008 billion, failing to cross the crucial $800 billion threshold. The indicator increased by 1.57% over the previous day. Since November 2021, when it surpassed $3 trillion, the entire market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has more than tripled. Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331465
Coinbase, Microstrategy, Block and cryptocurrencies rose despite market uncertainty

Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, talks cryptocurrency regulations, Coinbase to be fined

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 05.01.2023 10:43
Bitcoin failed to break the $17K mark on Wednesday and has rolled back to $16.77K at the time of writing. Price fluctuations remain more than subdued. BTC remains slightly above its 50-day moving average (50-DMA). As capturing a critical trending level has yet to encourage more buyers, it is worth looking cautiously at the dynamics of the coming days. Bitcoin was able to touch a bottom at $16,000, signalled by a rise in the number of losing addresses on the network, which exceeded 50% by the end of December, according to a Coinbase report. The situation was similar in January 2015 and 2019, which saw BTC bottom in previous cycles of decline. The situation in Ethereum is more optimistic, as it rallied powerfully yesterday on a break of its 50-day average and is maintaining most of those gains on Thursday morning. In addition, in ETHUSD, the 200 and the 50 SMA have already turned upwards, which is one of the signs that the trend is changing. However, we still need confirmation. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has refused to plead guilty to eight charges Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed hope that US regulators will achieve regulatory clarity on cryptocurrency regulation in 2023. In his view, the main problem is that the US reference various past bills, but it is better to start from scratch. Read next: Samsung Suffers From Weakening Demand, Amazon Will Increase The Total Number Of Layoffs To Over 18,000| FXMAG.COM Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has refused to plead guilty to eight charges. Bloomberg notes that refusing to plead guilty will give Bankman-Fried more information about the evidence against him. A trial is set for October. The world's second cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase will pay a $100 million fine. Regulators note that the KYC requirement was followed formally by the exchange and that the information provided by the user was not correctly verified when registering a new client.
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

The Ethereum Has Retraced 61% Of The Last Wave Down

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 05.01.2023 11:18
Crypto Industry News: The World Economic Forum (WEF) has reviewed what happened in the cryptocurrency market in 2022. In addition, it has prepared forecasts for this industry. Dante Disparte, CSO of Circle, in an article published for WEF, states that while 2022 was a time of crisis for cryptocurrencies, the building blocks of the industry will continue to be "integral parts" of the modern economic toolkit. He added that "[blockchain] experimentation at the core of financial services continues unabated." It also encourages you to watch "what the big banks and financial services companies do, not [listen to] what they say." He cites as an example JPMorgan, a company that has publicly gone from explicitly opposing cryptocurrencies and blockchain to adopting the technology in several of its experimental products and offering cryptocurrencies to select customers. Disparte compares cryptocurrencies to other ubiquitous technologies today, such as the internet and email, which have also been used for illicit purposes and criminal activities. However, he emphasized that it is crucial to pay attention to the fact that people with bad intentions are behind all this, not the technology itself. It is important to "compensate for the harmful effects [of cryptocurrencies] by putting the technology in the hands of responsible actors and encouraging its responsible use." The author of the article believes that cryptocurrencies, no matter what, are still part of the financial world, and while regulation of this market is a necessity, countries that are able to provide them while maintaining a competitive approach will shape the future of the industry. Disparte concludes that cryptocurrency technologies will continue to be mainstreamed. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has retraced 61% of the last wave down on the H4 time frame chart and is currently trading below this level after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made. The technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,259, so bulls need to break through this level in order to continue the bounce towards the technical resistance seen at $1,278. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,183. Please notice the spike in the momentum indicator on the H4 time frame chart to the extremely overbought market territory. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,258 WR2 - $1,232 WR1 - $1,220 Weekly Pivot - $1,205 WS1 - $1,191 WS2 - $1,178 WS3 - $1,152 Read next:Samsung Suffers From Weakening Demand, Amazon Will Increase The Total Number Of Layoffs To Over 18,000| FXMAG.COM Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-06 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307484
Pound Sterling: Short-Term Repricing Complete, But Further Uncertainty Looms

European Inflation Fell, US Jobs Data Pleased Investors

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 09.01.2023 11:38
Friday’s jobs data in the US, and more specifically, the market reaction to Friday’s jobs data helped stock markets to record their best boost since more than a month on Friday. Friday’s jobs report However, Friday’s jobs report was rather… mixed, and spurred a lot of discussions and debates regarding whether the data was soft enough to convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that the inflation battle is over, or it was strong enough to make them further scratch their heads. US markets US markets, however, gave a strong positive reaction to Friday’s jobs data. Both the US 2 and 10-year yields fell more than 4% after the data, pulling the US dollar index lower along with them. The S&P500 jumped around 2.30%, while Nasdaq 100 rallied near 2.80%. Gold Gold reached our $1880 per ounce medium term target, boosted by lower US yields, which made the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold lower, and increased appetite. Fed, US CPI data and Jerome Powell speach Activity on Fed funds futures now price in a 25bp hike at the next FOMC meeting at around 75%, but the Fed has not hesitated to disappoint markets since last year to cool down the optimism and send the stocks to turmoil. So the dovish pricing in Fed expectations make the latest gains a bit bitter-sweet, as the slightest news, or hints that the Fed would not step back from its hawkish tone could vanish the latest rally. So, this week’s US inflation data will be key in either giving the bulls a further boost or bringing back the bears with revenge. Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday, and the US CPI data will be released on Thursday. On the corporate calendar, the earnings season will kick off with big bank earnings due Friday. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Strong NFP, soft wages… US jobs data pleased investors 03:36 But did it please the Fed? 4:59 Thu’s US inflation data is crucial for market mood 6:02 European inflation fell, but… 7:21 Crude oil flirts with $75pb 8:18 Bitcoin, Ethereum advance 8:36 Earnings season kicks off ! Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #jobs #NFP #wages #unemployment #inflation #data #dovish #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #XAU #Bitcoin #Ethereum #earnings #season #banks #JPMorgan #WellsFargo #Citigroup #Blackrock #Tilray #BBBY #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Many Cryptocurrencies Use US Employment Data, Australia Ranks Fourth Crypto ATM Hub

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 10.01.2023 15:11
Latest U.S. jobs data released; crypto performed well last week. Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade public testnet planned for Feb. Hong Kong gearing up to provide retail virtual asset trading services Weekly Market Index Last week’s crypto market prices rose slightly by +3.98%. Volume was flat at -0.53% and volatility increased by +36.36%. Weekly Performance Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) were up +3.4% and +8.1% in the past seven days, respectively. Many cryptocurrencies have been gaining over the last several days after the latest U.S. jobs data released last Friday sparked a Wall Street rally. News Highlights Many cryptocurrencies have been gaining over the past several days after the latest U.S. jobs data release sparked a Wall Street rally. Non-farm payrolls rose by 223,000 jobs in December, which was higher than expectations, but wages grew less than expected. Financial services providers in Hong Kong are already taking the first steps to provide virtual asset trading services to retail investors. Brokers and fund managers have reportedly asked for advice on licensing requirements ahead of the new virtual asset trading legislation. Ethereum developers aim to release a public test network for the Shanghai upgrade by the end of February. Australia overtakes El Salvador to become the fourth largest crypto ATM hub. Australia records 216 ATMs stepping into the year 2023.     2022 Year Review & 2023 Year Ahead: 2022 has been a ride for the crypto industry. In this report, we curate the top ten crypto events and trends of 2022, followed by our outlook for 2023. Decentralised Social Networks: An Overview: Decentralised social networks aim to enable participants to take back ownership of and better monetise their content and data. We explore the project landscape. Social Graph and Digital Identity in Web3: Relationships and identities are key elements that make up social networks. In this report, we put a spotlight on the roles that decentralised social graphs and digital identity play in Web3 social.         2022 Year Review & 2023 Year Ahead: 2022 has been a ride for the crypto industry. In this report, we curate the top ten crypto events and trends of 2022, followed by our outlook for 2023.   Decentralised Social Networks: An Overview: Decentralised social networks aim to enable participants to take back ownership of and better monetise their content and data. We explore the project landscape.   Social Graph and Digital Identity in Web3: Relationships and identities are key elements that make up social networks. In this report, we put a spotlight on the roles that decentralised social graphs and digital identity play in Web3 social. Catalyst Calendar Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties.
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

Trading Volumes In The Cryptocurrency Market Have Soared By 90%

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.01.2023 14:29
The starting point of the thaw in the market can be considered the first of January, when Bitcoin began an upward movement. In 11 days, the cryptocurrency reached the $17.4k level and confidently consolidated above the $17k psychological level. Among the nearest targets of the asset are the levels of $17.8k and $18k. Despite the positive developments, the daily chart of the cryptocurrency shows an uncertain price growth at low volumes. A similar situation was observed in mid-December, when the cryptocurrency made a false breakout of the $18k level and began to decline. However, judging by the latest news, the current local upward trend differs from the price movement at the end of 2022. Trading volumes in the cryptocurrency market have soared by 90% over the past day. The indicator reached the usual levels in the region of $30–35 billion. Recall that during the period of protracted consolidation, the volumes did not exceed $10 billion. Another positive signal was another purchase of cryptocurrencies from large international companies. Google purchased large volumes of Solana at $10 and was one of the top 13 owners of the asset. In addition, Morgan Stanley began actively buying shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. As of January 11, the firm had invested more than $3.5 million in crypto assets. Gradually we move on to neutral news, namely the long-awaited speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the state of the market, we can conclude that the official was cautious in his remarks and did not provoke volatility spikes. Powell's key thesis was the acknowledgement that the global economy has become much more resilient. Read next: Pietro Beccari Will Be The Louis Vuitton’s CEO, Departures Several Top Executives At Rivian| FXMAG.COM This statement can be seen as a homage to the labor market and an effective inflation policy. The next key event for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market will be the publication of inflation reports. Data are expected on Thursday, and analysts predict a slowdown in inflation to 6.5% from the current positions at 7.1%. Given the established dynamics of slowing inflation, we can assume that the publication of financial statements is already included in the price of financial instruments. At the same time, the forecasts have become much bolder, which increases the likelihood of their fallacy. Also, we must not forget that Bitcoin is locally overheated, therefore Thursday can be the starting point of a local correction of the asset. BTC/USD Analysis The cryptocurrency has been in continuous upward movement since January 1, 2023. The asset successfully overcame the downward trend line and the 0.236 Fibo level. The next targets for the coin will be $17.8k–$18k. Bitcoin technical indicators are approaching the overbought zone, especially the stochastic, which broke through the 60 level. The RSI is also close to entering the overbought zone. At the same time, there is no increase in buying volumes on the daily chart, which may indicate the completion of the bullish impulse. A similar uncertain move can be seen on the daily chart of the S&P 500. One day, the asset forms the largest candle since the end of November, but subsequently loses to buyers near $4,000. Given this, it can be concluded that the SPX price movement is an impulse surge of trading activity or manipulation by a market maker. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Maintains A Steady Upward Trend, The Aussie Pair Keeps Close To 0.69| FXMAG.COM Results Bitcoin is gradually passing the peak point of the upward movement as buying volumes are falling. Support from the SPX index looks unconvincing, as does the on-chain activity of the cryptocurrency. Given these facts, the asset needs a new impetus for growth, or a local correction. The publication of inflation reports can be a key moment in determining the further dynamics of the price movement of Bitcoin. With a favorable outcome and an increase in buying volumes, the asset will go to the $17.8k–$18k area..     Relevance up to 11:00 2023-01-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331984
It seems that less-than-expected Ether hodlers want to unstake

USD Coin popularity has increased. According to Michael Novogratz, significant decreases of cryptocurrency prices are unlikely

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.01.2023 13:49
Bitcoin rose on Wednesday on the back of stock gains and strengthened further on Thursday morning. In the low-liquid morning market, stop-loss orders were triggered, pushing the price up 4% within an hour and a half. At the peak, the price climbed to $18.3K but then retreated to $18.0K. Santiment estimates that crypto whales resumed buying in early January. In five days, addresses controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 coins increased their reserves by more than 20,000 BTC. Realised volatility in bitcoin and Ethereum fell to extreme lows, which historically preceded explosive moves in either direction, Glassnode said. Registering its 9th consecutive trading session of gains, Bitcoin is testing the downtrend resistance line and the area of previous local highs. Therefore, today's bitcoin momentum will likely be decisive for the next few days and may even register a long-term reversal, returning the market to the active buying phase. Read next: GM, Ford, Google And Solar Producers Would Work Together To Set Standards For Increasing The Use Of VPPs| FXMAG.COM On the other hand, the RSI on the daily charts has entered overbought territory as a long lull preceded the last rally. Are the bulls getting tired? We will find out in the next couple of days. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone said he believes in the future of the first two cryptocurrencies Galaxy Digital founder Michael Novogratz said that we shouldn't expect cryptocurrencies to fall significantly, but it's too early to talk about a broad recovery. According to him, the cryptocurrency industry needs time to lick its wounds and restore confidence. But BTC and ETH have stabilised in recent months and have even risen in recent days. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone said he believes in the future of the first two cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum will perform better than other assets, but they will still come under pressure when the stock market falls. McGlone is confident that ETH will hold support at $1,000. According to Glassnode, the popularity of the stable USD Coin (USDC) has risen sharply since the collapse of FTX. Users are more likely to choose this stablecoin because of monthly audits by accounting firm Grant Thornton on USDC and the collateral of short-term US government bonds.
Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Societe Generale Took Out A Loan In The Form Of The Stablecoin DAI, A Digital Form Of The Pound Is Being Considered

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 16.01.2023 11:50
El Salvador passes bill to sell bonds backed by BTC. Societe Generale taps MakerDAO for US$7M DAI loan. Polygon blockchain to undergo a hard fork. Weekly Market Index Last week’s crypto market prices rose significantly by +23.12%. Volume and volatility also increased by +99.69% and +238.74%, respectively. Weekly Performance Cryptocurrencies continue to gain momentum across the board. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) were up +23.6% and +22.0% in the past seven days, respectively. News Highlights El Salvador has passed a bill that will allow the country to sell bonds backed by Bitcoin. US$500 million of proceeds from those bonds will be put toward a proposed plan to build a “Bitcoin City”.  U.K.’s Economic Secretary to the Treasury said that a digital pound currency is being considered and a public consultation on the attributes of a digital pound would be launched in the coming weeks. French investment bank Societe Generale took out a loan of US$7 million in the stablecoin DAI from MakerDAO, in what is seen as a significant direct transaction between a TradFi firm and a DeFi project. The bank used home loan bonds as collateral. Polygon (MATIC) announced a proposed hard fork to its blockchain. If approved, the upgrade is set to occur on 17 Jan. It will address gas fee spikes and chain reorganisation. Read next: Lowering The Price Of Electric Vehicles Is Supposed To Be Tesla's Unusual Strategy To Generate Demand In The US Market| FXMAG.COM Recent Research Reports     2022 Year Review & 2023 Year Ahead: 2022 has been a ride for the crypto industry. In this report, we curate the top ten crypto events and trends of 2022, followed by our outlook for 2023. Alpha Navigator (December 2022): The new year sees crypto outperforming equities and gold. BTC options implied volatilities are subdued while perpetual futures funding rates are positive. Social Graph and Digital Identity in Web3: Relationships and identities are key elements that make up social networks. In this report, we put a spotlight on the roles that decentralised social graphs and digital identity play in Web3 social.         2022 Year Review & 2023 Year Ahead: 2022 has been a ride for the crypto industry. In this report, we curate the top ten crypto events and trends of 2022, followed by our outlook for 2023.   Alpha Navigator (December 2022): The new year sees crypto outperforming equities and gold. BTC options implied volatilities are subdued while perpetual futures funding rates are positive.   Social Graph and Digital Identity in Web3: Relationships and identities are key elements that make up social networks. In this report, we put a spotlight on the roles that decentralised social graphs and digital identity play in Web3 social. Catalyst Calendar Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
It seems that less-than-expected Ether hodlers want to unstake

Bitcoin retreats for reset

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.01.2023 10:18
Bitcoin has lost 2% over the past 24 hours, pulling back to $20.77K, almost $1K below Wednesday's peak. The first cryptocurrency followed stock indices, which turned sharply lower on Fed officials’ continued hawkish rhetoric simultaneously with growing signals of weakness in consumer demand and business activity. Technical analysis suggests that the latest pullback is a legitimate correction to the accumulated short-term overbought conditions after the rally since the beginning of the year. The correction can only be reclassified as a new downturn only after the BTCUSD consolidates below $19.5K, as the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the rally since the beginning of the year pass just above that level. According to the latest report from consulting firm Cornerstone Research, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will continue to increase pressure on the cryptocurrency market According to research from infrastructure company Alchemy, Web3 development activity has increased over the past year, despite the severe challenges faced by the crypto industry. The number of smart contracts on the Ethereum core network deployed during the fourth quarter of 2022 increased by 453% to 4.6 million compared to the previous quarter. According to the latest report from consulting firm Cornerstone Research, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will continue to increase pressure on the cryptocurrency market, including through lawsuits. Last year, the SEC imposed a record number of enforcement actions against the industry, bringing 24 cases in US federal courts and six administrative proceedings. Read next: Elon Musk Is Facing Trial In Fraud Trial Over 2018 Tweets| FXMAG.COM Experts at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have proposed three main options for regulating the cryptocurrency industry. These include banning certain cryptocurrency transactions, isolating the industry from traditional finance and the real economy, and regulating cryptocurrencies like traditional markets. The collapse of FTX was the first in a "long line" of collapses of unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges, said investor and star of the TV show Shark Tank Kevin O'Leary. He said all unregulated exchanges now face a massive outflow of customer funds. The refusal of some accounting firms to work with cryptocurrencies is also telling.
National Australia Bank Is Driving Digital Economy Innovation By Creating The AUDN Stablecoin

National Australia Bank Is Driving Digital Economy Innovation By Creating The AUDN Stablecoin

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 19.01.2023 13:20
National Australia Bank has become the second largest bank to create a stablecoin called AUDN to enable its business clients to settle blockchain transactions in real time using Australian dollars and highlighting the role of banks in driving innovation in the digital economy. Moreover, events in Davos continue to surprise and are constantly in the spotlight. In this article: Greta Thunberg accuses the political and business elite Another difficult year for the construction industry? AUDN- Stablecoin Created By National Australia Bank Greta Thunberg accuses the political and business elite Greta Thunberg is a Swedish environmental activist who is known for challenging world leaders to take immediate action for climate change mitigation. Now she has presented her activities in Davos. The four climate activists arrived in Davos after writing an open letter to the CEOs of fossil fuel companies via the Avaaz non-profit website. Thunberg, Nakate, Gualinga and Neubauer called on the leadership of the energy giants to immediately stop opening new oil, gas or coal extraction sites. Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg accused the political and business elite at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday of putting their own interests and short-term profits ahead of people and the planet. Greta Thunberg says Davos prioritizing greed and short-term profits over people and planet https://t.co/DEyzDTN6jv — CNBC (@CNBC) January 19, 2023 Another difficult year for the construction industry? The construction industry was and is one of those most affected by the fight against inflation. The prices of raw materials grew at a significant pace. As a result, sales increased. Expectations are not too good for this year either. Geberit expects 2023 to be a challenging year for the European construction industry. Rising interest rates led to a decline in sales in this market, as most preferred to renovate rather than buy a new home. Pipemaker Geberit sees tough 2023 for Europe's builders after sales dip https://t.co/HstnO8Ork6 pic.twitter.com/xrJ2lIgFBL — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 19, 2023 AUDN- Stablecoin Created By National Australia Bank The continued interest of banks in blockchain technology to improve financial markets infrastructure comes despite the 2022 horror for crypto markets, culminating in the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving. New ones appear. Now one of Australia's major banks, National Australia Bank, has announced the launch of the AUDN stablecoin. According to information, AUDN will be based on ethereum and blockchain algorithm. The stabeecoin will enable users to make real-time payments in blockchain technology, using the country's currency - the Australian dollar. AUDN will probably be rolled out in the middle of this year. Furthermore, NAB and ANZ work closely with financial regulators when stablecoin rules are developed. Reserve Bank Chairman Philip Lowe said last month that stablecoin regulation must be a priority and should be treated like bank deposits.The government is considering a cryptocurrency regulation regime, but it is unclear whether stablecoin regulation will be part of the original law. NAB and ANZ are not the only local players developing Australian dollar stablecoins. Another cash-backed stablecoin, AUDE, was created by non-bank company Ettle and was also introduced late last year, including to the retail market. NEWS: National Australia Bank (@NAB), one of the largest Australian banks, has created a stablecoin called AUDN.📰 https://t.co/iJVTndtwvR pic.twitter.com/8wpzFzA8Jg — CoinGecko (@coingecko) January 19, 2023
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 26.01.2023 10:39
Crypto Industry News: After the meeting in Brussels, the finance ministers of the Euro area countries issued a statement on the introduction of the digital Euro. The Eurogroup meets regularly to discuss the political dimensions of a potential digital currency. The January 16 statement coincides with the release of an inventory document from the European Central Bank (ECB) detailing the progress made in designing a digital Euro. The Eurogroup statement referred to the need for the European Central Bank and the European Commission to inform the Eurogroup and EU Member States about the progress of the digital Euro, which is under investigation. The Eurogroup believes that the introduction of the digital Euro, as well as its main features and design choices, requires policy decisions that need to be discussed and taken at political level.' The group listed the issues it was observing, including the digital currency's impact on the environment, privacy, financial stability, and related issues. It also expressed interest in the plans of European Union Member States outside the Euro area with regard to central bank digital currencies. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency rally had been capped at the level of $1,664 after the bulls hit the extremely overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The market is in the pull-back mode now and the nearest technical support is seen at $1,487. The key technical support is located at $1,350 and only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,834 WR2 - $1,702 WR1 - $1,628 Weekly Pivot - $1,570 WS1 - $1,496 WS2 - $1,438 WS3 - $1,307 Read next:Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310158
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Good Moment On The NFT Market Influenced The Revival Of Ethereum

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 27.01.2023 08:57
Crypto Industry News: According to data from the Dune analytics platform, OpenSea processed over $320 million worth of NFTs on the Ethereum network in January 2023. This figure makes the month better than its predecessor, as in December 2022 the value was $283.5 million. These two months were the first since April 2022 in which the NFT market showed some sort of increase in the number of sales. In November, for example, sales totaled $253 million. The news comes amid a period where the cryptocurrency market as a whole is starting to show signs of recovery after the long period of downtime it faced in 2022. The very resurgence of Ethereum (ETH) is related to the good moment of the NFT market. The cryptocurrency is up 30% in 30 days. At the current exchange rate, Ethereum costs $1618. Despite this, the volume of sales on OpenSea continues to grow, even when measured in ETH. Values are 228,000 ETH in January, 227,000 ETH in December, and 191,000 ETH in November. Much of this return to form can be attributed to Yuga Labs, creators of the Bored Apes Yacht Club and Mutant Apes Yacht Club collections. The company launched a new series a week ago called Sewer Pass where NFTs can be minted for free by third-party token holders and gives you exclusive access to Dookey Dash. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency rally had been capped at the level of $1,664 after the bulls hit the extremely overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The market continues the pull-back cycle and the nearest technical support is seen at $1,487. The key technical support is located at $1,350 and only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,834 WR2 - $1,702 WR1 - $1,628 Weekly Pivot - $1,570 WS1 - $1,496 WS2 - $1,438 WS3 - $1,307 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310336
The Ethereum Is Currently Approaching The Monthly Highs

The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Making Lower Highs And Lower Low

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 01.02.2023 09:04
Crypto Industry News: Even though non-fungible tokens had an unfavorable year in 2022, the trend may reverse with the news that the NFT-funded film Calladita won an award at the Sundance Film Festival. The production was funded with approximately €750,000 thanks to successful adoption in the field of NFT. The Miguel Faus film began to be written in 2018, and in March 2022, the planning and subsequent release of the non-fungible tokens was completed. Faus assured that he decided to focus on the audience of NFT collectors, so that they would be the buyers of stills from the film "Calladita". "There is a revolution going on beyond crazy people buying pictures of kittens. This is a paradigm shift that I was deeply convinced would change the form of digital property." The Spanish-born filmmaker began writing the script for the film in 2018, but it wasn't until March 2022 that NFT's planning and release process was completed. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency rally had been capped at the level of $1,664 after the bulls hit the extremely overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The ETH market has been seen making a potential Triangle price pattern on the H4 time frame chart. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,525 and $1,487. The key technical support is located at $1,350 and only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,834 WR2 - $1,702 WR1 - $1,628 Weekly Pivot - $1,570 WS1 - $1,496 WS2 - $1,438 WS3 - $1,307 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-02-02 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310961
The Ethereum Is Currently Approaching The Monthly Highs

The Ethereum Had Broken Out From The Triangle Price Pattern

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 02.02.2023 10:45
Crypto Industry News: Asset management firm Devere Group says 82% of millionaires surveyed have asked their financial advisers to add cryptocurrencies like bitcoin to their investment portfolios. Devere Group, a global financial advisory and asset management firm with $12 billion worth of assets traded worldwide, has released the results of its cryptocurrency survey. She found that among her millionaire clients with $1 million to $5 million in investable assets, 82% sought advice on investing in cryptocurrencies. "In 2022, the cryptocurrency market hit its worst performance since 2018, with bitcoin down around 75% in a year," Nigel Green, CEO of Devere Group, commented on the report. He explained that the declines in cryptocurrency prices were due to investors reducing their "exposure to risky assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, due to increased concerns about inflation and slower economic growth." Devere Group survey participants are not the only ones who are positive about bitcoin. A recent study published by Nickel Digital Asset Management found that institutional investors expect 2023 to be a good year for bitcoin, with 65% of surveyed institutional investors agreeing that BTC could hit $100,000. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH market had broken out from the Triangle price pattern on the H4 time frame chart and made a new local high at the level of $1,695. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,788 (September 2022 high). The nearest technical support is seen at $1,525 and $1,487. The key technical support is located at $1,350 and only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,834 WR2 - $1,702 WR1 - $1,628 Weekly Pivot - $1,570 WS1 - $1,496 WS2 - $1,438 WS3 - $1,307 Read next:India's Adani Group May Have Passed A Key Test, Positive EU CPI Report| FXMAG.COM Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311141
ByBit calls Aragon today's outperformer. Ethereum validators earned a record $46 million in staking rewards

Santander Bank Polska Shareholders Can Expect A Solid Dividend, The ETH Liquid Staking Narrative Is Already Going Strong

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 02.02.2023 12:50
Summaries of the last quarter come from companies. Shareholders are waiting for dividends. After a solid profit, Santander Bank Polska is ready to share it with its shareholders. What's more, the ETH market is constantly evolving. In this article: Share the profit with shareholders UBS is sponsors New terms Share the profit with shareholders The Polish branch of the Spanish Banco Santander posted a net profit of PLN 2.8 billion (USD 654.3 million) in 2022, up 152% year-on-year, driven by high interest rates. This optimistic result made Santander Bank Polska plan to share the profit with its shareholders through a solid dividend. The bank is in talks with the Polish financial regulator KNF regarding a possible dividend payment and is waiting for its decision. Santander Bank Polska plans to share profit with shareholders - CEO https://t.co/eFRmKIWnMe pic.twitter.com/2kQvht46vI — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 2, 2023 Read next: Resumption Of Cooperation Between Airbus And Qatar Airways| FXMAG.COM UBS is sponsor A foundation is a non-governmental organization established to achieve social and economically useful goals. Like any foundation, it needs funds. In order to obtain them, foundations often organize collections or look for disputes among large companies or famous people. One of the most attractive sponsoring areas for companies is certainly sport. This is the effect of the high return that companies get thanks to the strong connection of fans with the brand, identified with their favorite club or athlete. The attitude of fans' loyalty towards clubs influences their attitude towards sponsors and purchasing decisions. The 43 OAK Foundation is a organization based on the development of young athletes who are either minorities or underprivileged. They provide transportation, equipment, ice time, funding for travel hockey leagues and tournaments and other vital resources for the players. One of the sponsors of this organization is a multinational investment bank and financial services company - UBS. UBS is a proud partner of @43OakFoundation, helping young players reach their athletic goals and mentoring them, on and off the ice. Together with the @NYIslanders and @UBSArena, we’re promoting diversity and inclusion through the sport of hockey. #BlackHistoryMonth #shareUBS pic.twitter.com/OPJUbFuaa8 — UBS (@UBS) February 1, 2023 New terms New terms come along with development. The cryptocurrency market is one of those that is full of new concepts. ETH liquid staking, Lido staking and Liquid staking derivatives may seem foreign to many novice traders. So it's not worth getting behind and immediately familiarizing yourself with these concepts in a special guide, because the cryptocurrency market is developing very quickly and now is the best time to develop yourself and your finances and investments. The ETH liquid staking narrative is already going strong but that does not mean you are necessarily late. Ethereum upgrades and scaling will be one of the main narratives in 2023. Another intriguing project on the horizon is Eigenlayer. #ETH liquid staking! Lido staking! Liquid staking derivatives!So many buzzwords, so little time... 😱Let #CMC help you dive into this overall definition and the details of #Ethereum liquid staking 👇https://t.co/IwVIY997Mj — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 2, 2023
Bitcoin amid recent banking sector situation: simply put, it is no longer a question of yield but safety

Cryptocurrencies: Only Trust Wallet Token Has Gained A Positive Return

Santa Zvaigzne Sproge Santa Zvaigzne Sproge 02.02.2023 14:31
Cryptocurrencies on the brink of a nervous breakdown Cryptocurrencies have been in retreat for the last quarter of 2022. For the 75 largest of these (excluding stablecoins), the average decline since the beginning of the year has been as much as 65.09%. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has fallen by 63.22% in that time. Interestingly, in this pool, only one cryptocurrency - Trust Wallet Token - has gained a positive return of more than 240% since the beginning of the year. However, let us recall the structure of this market. The value of all cryptocurrencies, according to MacroMicro data, is currently around 860 billion USD and has fallen by 69% (2.82 trillion USD) since its peak. Currently, Bitcoin accounts for 38% of the capitalisation, with the second largest digital currency Ethereum accounting for 18%. The average correlation of all currencies against Bitcoin was 0.71. It may indicate a high dependence of this market on the valuation of just this one cryptocurrency. Therefore, with elevated volatility, increases or decreases in Bitcoin, we could expect similar reactions in other cryptocurrencies. The correlation of Bitcoin with the S&P500 (US500) index was 0.56, which appears to be a significant correlation. Additionally, the cryptocurrency volatility was noticeably higher than the stock market, measured by an annualised standard deviation of 58.5% compared to the S&P500’s 21.7%. The average deviation of the market for the largest digital currencies was 91%, and the record holder was Synthetix (SNXUSD), whose annual volatility was as high as 141%. This shows us how this asset class had increased risk relative to the equity market. Read next: Resumption Of Cooperation Between Airbus And Qatar Airways| FXMAG.COM Cryptocurrencies the babies of cheap money Previously, central banks’ monetary policies may have been behind the success of the cryptocurrency market. Measures to stimulate post-pandemic economies by providing cheap money in the form of low interest rates have historically led to local speculative bubbles. It appears to be no different in this case. We can see a correlation with regard to changes in the size of the M2 monetary base and the Bitcoin price, whose growth rate has slowed considerably this year. Therefore, as we are currently in a cycle of ever higher interest rates and monetary tightening, it seems that we may not see increases in this market any time soon. „Only when the tide goes out that do you discover who’s been swimming naked” - the consequences of the FTX stock market collapse Since we saw the bankruptcy of the 3rd largest cryptocurrency exchange FTX, the digital currency market has pierced in recent support levels. Currently, the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is hovering around 17,000 USD. To answer the question of which exchanges may be at risk of insolvency, we should assess the level of coverage of positions taken. The Coinmarketcap website has introduced such a feature. However, it seems that the lack of transparency in this case could be one of the first clues to warn investors. The exchanges currently characterised by relatively high turnover and, at the same time, a lack of transparency are Ecxx, MEXC, IndoEx, Upbit and BitCoke. Increased liquidity could be linked to investors’ willingness to withdraw funds and close positions, so that these entities need to be particularly watched. Good to watch cryptocurrencies Read the full Yearly Outlook 2023 by Conotoxia here!
A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

The Key Technical Support Of The Ethereum Is Located At $1,350

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 03.02.2023 10:01
Crypto Industry News: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) Vice Chairman and staunch skeptic of the crypto market, Charlie Munger, has called on the US to follow China's lead and ban cryptocurrencies altogether. In an opinion the billionaire expressed to a widely read financial journal, Munger claimed that the growth of cryptocurrencies was due to a loophole because crypto assets are not currencies, commodities or securities. In addition, he said this: "Instead, this is a nearly 100% house edge gambling deal made in a country where gambling deals are traditionally regulated only by states that loosely compete with each other." He further added: "The United States should now pass a new federal law to prevent this from happening." This is not the first critical statement by the vice-president of BRK towards the crypto industry. In 2021, Charlie Munger described Bitcoin's success at the time as "disgusting", after referring to how it is being used by criminals, scammers and hackers. We have recently prepared a report about these third parties, in which we summarize their activities in the crypto industry in the last year - we strongly encourage you to read it. A year later, the 99-year-old called BTC an "investment in nothing," reaffirming his skeptical stance on the "new digital gold." Munger even went so far as to say that he wished cryptocurrencies had "never been invented." But perhaps that was what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. Technical Market Outlook: After the fake breakout from the Triangle price pattern on the H4 time frame chart and a new local high at the level of $1,695 the ETH/USD pair reversed sharply lower. The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the H4 time frame chart yesterday, so the outlook remains bearish now. The nearest technical support is seen at $1,525 and $1,487. The key technical support is located at $1,350 and only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,788 (September 2022 high). Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,834 WR2 - $1,702 WR1 - $1,628 Weekly Pivot - $1,570 WS1 - $1,496 WS2 - $1,438 WS3 - $1,307 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311312
Crypto: according to Craig Erlam, there seems to be a gap between reality and prices

If Retailers Continue To Withdraw Capital From Brokers The Cryptocurrency Market May Suffer The Most

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.02.2023 10:25
Summary:  From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges. The genesis of crypto: a post-GFC liquidity bonanza On December 16, 2008, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed with a stroke of the pen the interest rate to near zero amid the Great Recession. This was the first time in history that the Fed imposed an interest rate below one. To get the economy back on its feet, the Fed followed up with hefty quantitative easing in March 2009 to flood the economy with fresh money and liquidity. Throughout the 2010s, the Fed retained a low interest rate, aside from a few minor interest rate hikes and cuts, while other central banks even enforced a negative rate. To put it frankly, this formed a near-perfect environment for speculative assets to thrive for years to come. As a peculiar circumstance, hardly two weeks after the Fed slashed interest rates to zero for the first time, the most speculative asset of this epoch – namely Bitcoin – emerged, following its genesis block on January 3, 2009. It was largely a coincidence that Bitcoin mined its first block that close to the Fed imposing zero rates and quantitative easing. However, this environment has been of great significance to make Bitcoin and later crypto as a whole the darling of retail investors it slowly but surely became. Retail supremacy In its first decade, crypto derived little if any recognition from the lion’s share of institutional investors and financial intermediaries, other than a few strong advocates. Although the financial establishment would simply not touch crypto with a bargepole, retail participation grew exponentially, making crypto a key playing field for retail investors along with meme stocks and other r/wallstreetbets favourites. The near zero or even negative interest rates in some countries have drawn in retail investors to investable assets, including greatly speculative markets such as crypto to perchance achieve some return on their capital, during times at which interest rates have not given any yield. The absence of institutions and frequent fear-of-missing-out retail investors have fuelled excessive volatility and various bubbles such as in 2017 and 2021, causing countless cryptocurrencies to unsustainably pump to sky-high prices before dropping like a stone. This volatility has arguably reinforced the desire of institutions to stay away from crypto. A great business to serve retail Serving the trading needs of retail in crypto has been an extremely lucrative business for the exchanges that were early movers in the space. In fact, the majority of Coinbase’s revenue is a product of retail trading, although the company has various other revenue streams such as staking, interest rate earnings, commerce gateway, developer tools, and institutional trading and custody. Retail trading of crypto may not pay as many bills at zero-commission broker Robinhood relative to Coinbase, yet, it is still a sizeable part of the firm’s revenue, particularly considering that it offers trading in other assets such as equities and options. This stresses that retail rather than institutions keeps crypto-trading enablers afloat. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. & Saxo Group Source: Robinhood Markets, Inc. & Saxo Group Will retail stick around just as interest rates rise and liquidity dries up? In what felt like a flash in 2022, the macro environment transformed from a near-perfect environment for speculative assets on pandemic-induced liquidity to an ugly reversal. To tame soaring inflation, the Fed raised interest rates from near zero to above 4 percent in the span of less than a year, causing other central banks around the world to follow suit. To make matters worse, the Fed initiated quantitative tightening to decrease the liquidity in markets by shrinking its balance sheet. The rate hikes in 2022 reduced liquidity and further deflated the frothiest speculative markets of 2021. In hindsight, in early 2021, retail hands had started running dry of fresh ‘free’ pandemic stimulus money to plough into crypto. Note, for example, the first huge peak in Bitcoin and other crypto assets was within several weeks of the last and largest US stimulus check, after which the subsequent volatility saw many crypto traders burning out. From this point forward, if retail continues to withdraw capital from brokers, the crypto market is likely to be hit the hardest, as crypto has never existed in such a macro environment and because of weak participation from professional and institutional investors. In our view, retail will not likely pull out of the market immediately, as the almost 15-year perception that money is cheap must be erased from the dominant, younger generation of retail crypto traders. If liquidity stays tight as central banks fight inflation, the model of retail supremacy to not only keep the crypto market afloat but also the model of crypto brokers selling shovels in a gold rush will break down. From retail to institutions In the past few years, crypto market advocates have touted the impending arrival of serious institutional participation. Relative to the ‘don’t-touch’ attitude that institutions largely held towards crypto until 2020, some respected institutions have dipped their toes into the space, trading the market themselves, offering it to clients, and in some cases executing various transactions directly on-chain. While this is a step in the right direction, the institutional interest in crypto has been relatively modest, as it is still dominated by relatively few institutions. As a consequence, institutions are not likely set to arrive in sufficient force in the near-term to offset retail’s crypto exit, particularly for the smaller and less liquid cryptocurrencies. Nonetheless, less retail activity may lead the market to a less speculative but more robust and sustainable model long-term, although most cryptocurrencies may not survive the wash-out of speculative activity. To bring about a sustainable model for the market to thrive in the future, crypto must return to its roots by offering unique decentralised use cases and mature into more economically sustainable assets. On the latter, last year was encouraging in demonstrating that cryptocurrencies can be economically sustainable assets by generating dividend-like returns, following Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake last year. During the transition, Ethereum drastically decreased its issuance of new Ether, so it nowadays offers holders a reward of up to 7 percent yearly by verifying transactions but without increasing its supply, as the reward is fundamentally funded by transaction fees. Hopefully, other cryptocurrencies and tokens follow in Ethereum’s footsteps in turning into more economically sustainable assets, altogether leading the space to become less speculative.   Source: Can institutions save crypto before retail vanishes? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)  
Senator Elizabeth Warren's Digital Assets Anti-Money Laundering Act, Ethereum Shapella upgrade and more

The Ethereum Has Bounced From The Technical Support

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 08.02.2023 11:17
Crypto Industry News: The New Year's 40% rebound in Bitcoin's price charts led to the largest influx of funds into the market from institutional investors since June 2022. The last week of January alone saw an influx of funds amounting to USD 117 million. On January 30, the CoinShares group published a report called "Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly", from which we learn what the investment situation on the bitcoin market looked like recently. It seems that the first cryptocurrency is still recognized by institutions as an attractive investment opportunity. Last month was one of the better Januarys for the bitcoin market in years. Bitcoin shot up by 40% at that time, which affected investor sentiment and reduced losses suffered by this sector as a result of the tragic end of the year. Last week's US bears seem to have changed their minds after $117m inflows, including $26m from the US. An interesting fact is that investors from Germany account for 40% of the result from the last week of January. The second largest group are Canadians. Moreover, although the altcoin segment also saw a nice price rally, the interest of the institution is dominated by BTC. In the meantime, after a noticeable rebound in early 2023, BTC's largest institutional investment vehicle has fallen into a lower correction that continues to deepen its discount. As of Feb. 7, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is trading at 43% off Bitcoin's spot price after it jumped 36.2% in mid-January. However, GBTC has been struggling with some problems for some time. Grayscale is trying to force US regulators to approve the conversion to the country's first bitcoin-listed fund. The foundations of the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization may be strongly affected by the recent announcement of Visa Vice President Cuy Sheffield. Well, during the event, StarWare announced that his company is testing large transactions using this Ethereum blockchain. It was mentioned that Visa is exploring ways to accept payments in stablecoins through this blockchain. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support seen at $1,603 and is approaching the last swing high. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,788 (September 2022 high). The intraday technical support is seen at $1,603 and the key technical support is located at $1,350, so only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,630 WR2 - $1,625 WR1 - $1,623 Weekly Pivot - $1,620 WS1 - $1,618 WS2 - $1,614 WS3 - $1,609 Read next: The Decline In Tech Valuations Continues To Hit SoftBank| FXMAG.COM Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311853
ByBit calls Aragon today's outperformer. Ethereum validators earned a record $46 million in staking rewards

Super Bowl LVII Without Any Crypto Ads, The Ethereum Has Reversed From The Level Of $1,700 Again

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 09.02.2023 11:03
Crypto Industry News: Fos Sports TV station has decided that during Super Bowl LVII there will be a rule of banning all crypto ads. After the devastating crypto winter of 2022, which saw many high-profile bankruptcies, Fox Sports decided to effectively ban cryptocurrency-related ads. This decision is to help protect Fox Sports viewers from financial losses. Fox Sports has sold out all available ad space for the upcoming top game - the Super Bowl - scheduled for next Sunday between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. No crypto company has purchased the advertising rights on the day of this major American sporting event. Read next: Disney Plans To Cut Costs And Jobs, Google Is Now Rolling Out AI Chatbot| FXMAG.COM Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the level of $1,700 again, so the next target for bulls, seen at the level of $1,788 (September 2022 high) is moving away. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,603 and the key technical support is located at $1,487, so only clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish. Please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support as any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,630 WR2 - $1,625 WR1 - $1,623 Weekly Pivot - $1,620 WS1 - $1,618 WS2 - $1,614 WS3 - $1,609 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312057
Cryptocurrency Mining Facility Will Be Launched In Russia In Eastern Siberia

Cryptocurrency Mining Facility Will Be Launched In Russia In Eastern Siberia

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 13.02.2023 10:27
Crypto Industry News: The Russian Federation intends to launch a cryptocurrency mining facility worth over $12.3 million in the coming months. According to a local Russian media report, this huge data center will be located in Buryatia, a Russian republic in eastern Siberia. The facility is expected to house 30,000 mining equipment and the projected total power consumption is 100 megawatts. The mining project is managed by the JSC Corporation and the Plenipotentiary of the President in the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation. According to a press release from KRDV, Bitriver-B, the operational arm of Russia's largest mining company Bitriver, has started construction by establishing critical infrastructure and providing the necessary energy equipment. The construction of the enterprise will be completed in the first half of 2023, where approximately 100 new jobs will be created. The main objective of KRDV is to drive the economic and infrastructural development of the Russian Far Eastern Federal District by supporting investment projects in several fields, including tourism, energy, health, etc. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the level of $1,700 again, so the next target for bulls, seen at the level of $1,788 (September 2022 high) is moving away. The intraday technical support seen at $1,603 had been violated and the key technical support located at $1,487 is about to be tested by bears. Only a clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,569 WR2 - $1,541 WR1 - $1,532 Weekly Pivot - $1,513 WS1 - $1,503 WS2 - $1,484 WS3 - $1,456 Read next: Amazon Is Slowly Dismantling Tony Hsieh’s Version Of Zappos, Louisa Vuitton Doubled Sales| FXMAG.COM Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-14 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312416
A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

The Key Technical Support For Ethereum Bulls Was Broken Already

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 14.02.2023 09:30
Crypto Industry News: According to American media, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will sue Crypto Trust Co. Paxos for supporting the BinanceUSD (BUSD) stablecoin issuance. Additionally, Paxos is facing an investigation by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), which urged the company to stop further BUSD issuances, which Paxos has already done. What is BUSD? It is a Binance-branded stablecoin previously issued by Paxos, a New York-regulated custodianship that is temporarily licensed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal banking regulator. However, this is probably not the only problem, because last week the company received the so-called Wells notification, which means that regulators have identified irregularities in its functioning. The news actually comes just after the SEC imposed a $30 million fine on the Kraken exchange, alleging that its staking services were an offer of unregistered securities. Kraken did not admit or deny the SEC allegations as part of the settlement, but closed all of its US staking programs and paid the penalty. So we see that SEC chief Gary Gensler intends to enter the cryptocurrency industry with the door and the current investigation may be a broader operation. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the level of $1,700 again, so the next target for bulls, seen at the level of $1,788 (September 2022 high) is moving out of sight. The key technical support located at $1,487 was tested by bears already and now the market is trying to bounce. Only a clear and sustained breakout below this level would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,569 WR2 - $1,541 WR1 - $1,532 Weekly Pivot - $1,513 WS1 - $1,503 WS2 - $1,484 WS3 - $1,456 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-02-15 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312600
ByBit calls Aragon today's outperformer. Ethereum validators earned a record $46 million in staking rewards

The Bulls Of Ethereum Continue To Move Higher

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 15.02.2023 10:41
Crypto Industry News: Coinbase has been in the spotlight of the crypto world over the past few days as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigates Coinbase's biggest competitor. The suspicions against the Kraken were confirmed and bore fruit in the form of a fine. For this reason, now Coinbase is in the spotlight and FUD affects the mood of Coinabse investors and customers. However, according to Coinbase, staking is not a violation of the Securities Act or even the Howey test. More importantly, Coinbase stated that forced staking under the Securities Act will be detrimental to users. This form of regulation through enforcement could push US users into unregulated offshore markets. Although new developments are taking place ahead of the Shanghai update, Ethereum validators and the ETH network remain undeterred. And according to Staking Rewards, so far the number of validators on the Ethereum network continues to grow. More specifically, the ETH network has seen an increase of 3.5% in the last 30 days. Growing revenue generated is one of the reasons why the number of validators continues to grow despite the negative press around staking. Only in the last month, validators generated an increase in revenues by 32.81%. Additionally, the overall ETH rate also increased. Currently, around 14% of all ETH is staked, and this number may change after the Shanghai update. Most ETH is staked through Lido and other centralized exchanges. Read next: Airbnb Posted A Profit Of $1.9. Billion, Air India And Largest Commercial Aircraft Deal In Aviation History| FXMAG.COM Technical Market Outlook: The key technical support on ETH/USD pair, which is located at $1,487 was tested by bears already and now the market is trying to bounce. The bulls had broken above the local trend line (orange line on the chart) and continue to move higher towards the 50 MA ($1,576). Only a clear and sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,569 WR2 - $1,541 WR1 - $1,532 Weekly Pivot - $1,513 WS1 - $1,503 WS2 - $1,484 WS3 - $1,456 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-16 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312814
The Ethereum Is Currently Approaching The Monthly Highs

Ethereum Plans To Implement A Type Of Sharding That Will Help Lower Transaction Costs

Binance Academy Binance Academy 15.02.2023 13:36
EIP-4844, also known as proto-danksharding, is a proposed upgrade to the Ethereum protocol meant to reduce fees and increase transaction throughput. It intends to achieve these objectives by introducing a new transaction type that accepts “blobs” of data. A simple way to understand EIP-4844’s function is the following alliterative phrase: “EIP-4844 bolts blobs onto blocks”. It is a transitional upgrade that will ultimately lead to full danksharding in the future, thereby enabling Ethereum to manage the capacity for a global transaction network.  Introduction For years, Ethereum developers have been seeking solutions to cater to a growing user base. Through what’s known as The Ethereum Upgrades, major improvements like The Merge and rollups have been proposed. These changes have helped Ethereum increase transaction throughput and lower transaction costs. However, fees remain too expensive for many and throughput is not where it needs to be, which slows down the pace of mass adoption. To address this issue, Ethereum has made data sharding its long-term solution. Since deploying data sharding is a long and complex process, EIP-4844 is being proposed as a transitional solution. As such, it will prepare Ethereum for full danksharding that will reach a throughput of around 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) without compromising decentralization or security. Learn more on Binance.com What Is EIP-4844? EIP stands for Ethereum Improvement Proposal, a protocol that allows developers to propose new features and solutions to the Ethereum protocol. Proto-danksharding is named after two Ethereum researchers, Proto Lambda and Dankrad Feist.    To understand EIP-4844, it’s necessary to first understand what sharding is. Simply put, it’s a way of partitioning databases into smaller ones that manage specific data segments, thereby improving the efficiency and performance of these databases.  When applied to blockchain — and Ethereum in particular — sharding takes on some unique features. Ethereum plans to implement a type of sharding, called danksharding, that will help lower transaction costs and increase throughput. Labeled the “scalability killer”, danksharding is expected to increase Ethereum’s TPS to around 100,000.  In comparison, the Ethereum base layer processes around 15 TPS and its layer 2 rollups process around 100 TPS as of Q1 2023. While these numbers are rough estimates, the effect of danksharding is clear: it will allow Ethereum to increase scaling by an order of magnitude. Some of the main differences between danksharding and previous Ethereum and non-Ethereum sharding proposals is that danksharding will attempt to provide more space for blobs of data, rather than for transactions (more on this later).  Another innovation of danksharding is the so-called merged fee market, where only one proposer chooses transactions for all shards, instead of each shard having its own proposer.  To make this merged fee market work and to alleviate the issue of maximal extractable value (MEV), a method called proposer/builder separation will also be implemented. A proposer is a validator of the Ethereum protocol (called a miner before the Ethereum Merge) that chooses which transactions to include in the next block.   EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding) is the step that will come before full danksharding and will increase TPS to approximately 1,000. Most importantly, EIP-4844 will introduce a new transaction type that accepts “blobs” of data — an important element of making full danksharding possible. EIP-4844 is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2023, though there may be delays. How Does EIP-4844 Work? At its core, EIP-4844 will introduce a new transaction type called blob-carrying transactions, which are like regular transactions but with added pieces of information known as binary large objects or “blobs”.  Ethereum contributor Ben Edgington summarizes EIP-4844 with the memorable alliterative phrase, “EIP-4844 bolts blobs onto blocks”. It succinctly describes how blob-carrying transactions entail “blobs” attached to blocks, which increases the amount of data blob-carrying blocks can handle.  This may be confusing as it seems akin to increasing block sizes — a contradiction of Ethereum’s stance against arbitrarily large blocks that would require greater computing power and could thus lead to centralization.  However, there are some critical differences between blockspace and blobspace. Blobs: bounded storage costs and no execution costs, but every node bears a bandwidth cost. Source: Ben Edgington Blobs are large in size but unlike blocks that are stored forever and visible to the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), blobs are only available for a short period of time and are not visible to the EVM. Additionally, blobs reside on the Ethereum consensus layer instead of on the computation-heavy execution layer. Most importantly, blobspace is much cheaper than blockspace.  Aside from introducing blob-carrying transactions, EIP-4844 will also implement execution-layer logic, verification rules, multi-dimensional fee markets, and other system changes required for full danksharding in the future. One thing to note is that even though EIP-4844 will implement most of the logic of full danksharding, it won’t implement any actual sharding. Nevertheless, apart from getting Ethereum one step closer to achieving the cost and throughput levels needed for mass adoption, EIP-4844 can still offer some scaling and cost-saving benefits.      How Will EIP-4844 Benefit Users? EIP-4844 is a protocol upgrade that’s part of Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap. Preparation for the implementation of EIP-4844 is moving rapidly, with some devnets having already been run and the specs for the upgrade almost finalized.  Users will see noticeable improvements after EIP-4844’s implementation, mainly in the form of faster transactions and lower fees. The successful implementation of EIP-4844 will also make Ethereum more competitive in the cryptocurrency space. Some users may wonder what they should do if they want to access old blob data that has been deleted. As explained earlier, blobs reside on the Ethereum consensus layer, whose purpose is to provide a highly secure real-time bulletin board for other protocols’ longer-term storage. So, even though blobs are deleted after weeks, their data should still be available in longer-term storage elsewhere. Closing Thoughts EIP-4844 is a highly complicated Ethereum protocol upgrade that’s part of a larger roadmap and that’s connected to other system upgrades, such as proposer/builder separation (PBS) and EIP-1559 blob fee adjustment. While an understanding of EIP-4844 will better prepare average users for the coming changes, one should note that most of that change will come in the form of lower costs and faster transactions. The Ethereum protocol is constantly evolving and improving. EIP-4844 is one of the critical near-future upgrades meant to enhance the network’s capabilities. Successful implementation of EIP-4844 will make Ethereum highly competitive as a global transaction network. Further Reading What Is the Ethereum Arrow Glacier Upgrade? The Merge Ethereum Upgrade: All You Need To Know What Is the Ethereum London Hard Fork? What Is the Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade and How Will It Affect Me? Disclaimer and Risk Warning: This content is presented to you on an “as is” basis for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind. It should not be construed as financial advice, nor is it intended to recommend the purchase of any specific product or service. Please read our full disclaimer here for further details. Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance Academy is not liable for any losses you may incur. Not financial advice. For more information, see our Terms of Use and Risk Warning.
EOS Offers Its Users Nearly Free Transactions

EOS Offers Its Users Nearly Free Transactions

Binance Academy Binance Academy 15.02.2023 13:42
TL;DR EOS is a Layer 1 blockchain designed to address scalability issues first-and second-generation blockchains face. As the longest-running blockchain after Bitcoin and Ethereum in the industry, it has been used by developers to build blockchain applications and ecosystems. This has, in turn, unlocked use cases in the supply chain, decentralized finance (DeFi), and gaming finance (GameFi) sectors, among others. Learn more on Binance.com Introduction EOS was launched in 2018 using open-source technology from Cayman Island-based company B1. In its early days, EOS was known to outperform other projects, thanks to its technical innovation. However, development slowed, and the venture capital pledged to community projects building on EOS fell through. Faced with these challenges, projects on EOS no longer had the resources needed to continue operating on the network. In solidarity, EOS Block Producers reached a consensus on creating a new entity called the EOS Network Foundation (ENF), which is now responsible for efficiently deploying capital and moving EOS forward. EOS Block Producers also passed a proposal to stop locking up tokens — or token vesting — for use by B1, and the EOS Network became a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO).  On September 21, 2022, to achieve absolute code independence, community engineers led by the ENF shifted away from EOSIO 2.0 to Leap 3.1, the C++ implementation of the new Antelope protocol. Today, with its new features, EOS continues to tackle scalability challenges faced by blockchains. What Is EOS? EOS token EOS uses Delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) as its consensus mechanism. Its native token, EOS, is a utility token used on the network to purchase system resources, participate in EOS governance, transfer value on native applications, and account for value by investors and speculators. Token holders can also stake their idle EOS tokens to receive a percentage of the fees collected by users who wish to use EOS system resources through the EOS PowerUp Model. Introduction to the EOS Blockchain In many real-world situations, scalability is the most significant barrier to establishing public blockchains. Blockchains’ scalability issue typically emerges when a network grows and its transactions increase.  Commonly debated blockchain performance measures such as swaps per second, transaction throughput, and latency are have yet to achieve a sufficient quality-of-service level in many blockchains. Through its aforementioned ecosystem features, EOS aims to address these limitations without compromising network security or developer freedom. A WebAssembly C++ engine At the core of the EOS blockchain resides a high-performance WebAssembly (WASM) engine that executes smart contract code. This engine is designed to meet the demands of blockchain applications that require far more from a WASM engine than web browsers do. High throughput, faster confirmations, and low latency A good user experience demands reliable feedback with a delay of not more than a few seconds. EOS achieves high transaction throughput because its DPoS mechanism need not wait for all the nodes to complete a transaction to achieve finality. This asynchronous style of validation results in faster confirmations and lower latency, i.e., the time taken for a transaction to be confirmed as accurate after it has been initiated.  EVM integration EOS has an Ethereum-compatible Virtual Machine (EOS EVM) that allows Solidity developers on Ethereum to enjoy the EOS blockchain’s scalability and reliability. This includes nearly free transactions for their users, as well as access to the open-source code libraries and tooling to which they are already accustomed.  Permissions through access keys The underlying design of the EOS blockchain incorporates a comprehensive and highly flexible permissions system to create custom permission models for various use cases. Account owners can grant specific authorizations to third parties while having the power to revoke these permissions at any time. EOS supports hierarchical account structures, which enable any user to manage multiple smart contracts under a single parent account. Alternatively, an account owner can divide the authority required to modify a smart contract across various accounts. Flexibility Due to its protocol design, applications deployed on EOS are upgradeable. This means developers can deploy code fixes, add features, and change the application’s logic as long as they have the necessary authority to do so. EOS also allows developers to deploy smart contracts that cannot be modified. These decisions are left to the discretion of EOS developers rather than at the mercy of the protocol. Programmable resource allocation and governance Developers can modify system smart contracts to create customized economic models and governance rules. Since the core layer of code does not always have to be updated for changes to occur, this on-chain mechanism can be modified using system smart contracts. What Makes EOS Unique? Human-readable accounts EOS leverages human-readable accounts to make it easier for users to remember their own accounts, as well as those with which they interact. Instead of long strings of random characters, EOS accounts usually use recognizable addresses such as “Alice.gm”. Affordable transaction fees EOS offers its users nearly free transactions, making it ideal for sending or receiving micropayments. This addresses one of Web3’s greatest barriers to entry, since gas fees on other chains can add significant costs to a single purchase.  Near-instant finality In cryptocurrency transactions, finality refers to the assurance or guarantee that the transactions cannot be reversed or altered after completion. The speed of a blockchain will impact its finality rate, as it determines how quickly transactions are confirmed and finalized. Currently, EOS’s finality is approximately three minutes — much faster than Bitcoin’s 60 minutes and Ethereum’s six minutes.  In contrast with Web2’s finality, however, three minutes is still slow. Therefore, the ENF and its key technology partners — known as the Antelope coalition — launched the Instant Finality initiative to offer users instant and irreversible transaction settlement. Energy efficiency EOS’ DPoS mechanism allows its nodes to validate transactions more quickly and with fewer network resources. Because it does not involve mining like proof-of-work (PoW) networks, the EOS Network is one of the industry’s more energy-efficient blockchains. Base layer insurance  Recover+ (R+ for short) is a cybersecurity portal and rapid incident response program designed to safeguard EOS DeFi projects and their users with bug bounties and white-hat incentives. With a response program, stolen funds can be recovered swiftly in the event of malicious hacks.  On November 5, 2021, blockchain lending platform Pando Rings was exploited for over $70m. While Pando Rings is not an EOS-based application, the attacker stole over $2m in EOS tokens. Thanks to this program, the Recover+ team was able to intervene and freeze the stolen funds, thereby protecting EOS DeFi users. EOS Working Groups Since the ENF was established in 2021, it has funded several EOS Working Groups for ecosystem improvements. It has also recommended a course of actionable items through “Blue Papers”, which offer suggestions for enhancements in several areas, including core infrastructure, APIs, SDKs, DeFi, and security analysis tooling. EOS Network Ventures EOS Network Ventures (ENV) is a $100m venture capital fund whose mission is to attract capital investment and deploy it to benefit the EOS Network. It also makes strategic equity and token-based investments into tech start-ups in the Web3 space. ENV’s scope includes — but is not limited to — GameFi, the metaverse, eSports, NFTs, and fintech. EOS Network Foundation The EOS Network Foundation (ENF) is a community-led non-profit founded by Yves La Rose in September 2021. Its mission is to identify opportunities for investment, seed funding, and collaboration in pursuit of Web3 innovation. To do so, the ENF coordinates public goods funding and non-financial support for the growth, development, and worldwide adoption of the EOS Network. Since its establishment, multiple public goods programs have been organized and funded, contributing to key EOS developments. On November 9, 2022, the ENF announced that it had initiated a proposal to launch a $100m ecosystem fund to be managed by ENV. Closing Thoughts As the longest-running blockchain after Bitcoin and Ethereum, EOS has overcome past challenges and adapted to present demands since its inauguration. It continues to move towards a robust system, using its performance, flexibility, and scalability to create native Web3 GameFi experiences for both developers and end-users. Further Reading What Is Layer 1 in Blockchain? Proof of Work (PoW) vs. Proof of Stake (PoS) What Is Proof of Work (PoW)?
The Crypto Market Is Also Highly Volatile, So Drastic Price Swings Require Traders To Think Fast

The Crypto Market Is Also Highly Volatile, So Drastic Price Swings Require Traders To Think Fast

Binance Academy Binance Academy 16.02.2023 09:09
TL;DR Trading psychology represents the emotional aspect of a trader’s decision-making process. Every trader, to a certain extent, has emotional triggers. The two primary emotions that affect traders are fear and greed — both can lead to poor decisions, such as going all-in on one asset or panic-selling out of fear.  Even if a trader knows how to perform technical and fundamental analysis at a high level, a weak or anxious mind easily swayed by emotions can be highly detrimental to their portfolio — especially in a volatile trading environment like crypto. Learn more on Binance.com What Is Trading Psychology? Trading psychology refers to the psychological factors that influence how people trade in markets like crypto or stocks. It is based on the idea that emotions can significantly impact a trader's decision-making process.  For example, greed can drive a trader to make a high-risk decision, like buying a cryptocurrency at its peak due to its rapidly rising price. In contrast, fear can result in a trader prematurely exiting the market. FOMO is particularly prevalent when an asset has appreciated significantly in value over a relatively short period of time. This has the potential to cause a person to make market decisions based on emotion rather than logic and reason. Every trader is affected by emotion. For most people, losing money is painful, while earning money is joyful.  Why It’s Important To Understand Your Mindset When Trading Fear and greed are the two primary emotions in trading.  Fear can drive a trader to avoid all risks and possibly miss out on a successful trade. On the other hand, greed can lead to excessive risk-taking to maximize profits, such as buying an asset at its peak because its price is rising rapidly.  Experienced traders know to strike a balance between fear and greed. Fear protects traders from taking unnecessary risks, while greed motivates them to capitalize on opportunities. Over-reliance on either emotion, however, typically leads to irrational trading decisions.  Learning to trade with the correct mindset is as important as performing fundamental analysis or knowing how to read a chart. By understanding and controlling their emotions, traders can make informed decisions and minimize losses. Making unemotional decisions is, of course, easier said than done. Traders deal with a variety of challenges every day that can invoke an emotional response. Here are a few examples. Unrealistic expectations: Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme. People who go into trading with this idea are in for a rude awakening. Like any skill, trading requires years of practice and discipline. Losing: Even the best traders have gloomy days. For new traders, losing trades is a tough concept to grasp and often leads to even more failed attempts to try and outwit the market. Winning: While winning feels good, the downside is that traders may feel a sense of over-confidence or invincibility, and may be under the false perception that they can’t lose. This can lead to riskier decisions and ultimately, losses.  Market sentiment and social media: Beginner traders are easily influenced by what people say on the Internet. Negative sentiment on social media can lead to fear, which can result in panic selling. It’s equally unwise for a trader to blindly follow an influencer’s advice to buy a specific token, especially if the influencer is sponsored by the token’s project and paid to promote it. How to Use Trading Psychology to Become a Better Trader Think long term Set achievable goals. A realistic plan of what you want to achieve helps prevent over-trading or getting too emotional due to unrealistic expectations. It will also help keep your focus on the long-term goal rather than short-term gains or losses. Take a break  Regular breaks can provide much-needed perspective and clarity on where things stand. If you hit a string of winning trades, step back before you get carried away into overtrading. Additionally, pulling all-nighters will cause you to burn out and as a result, make bad decisions. Breaks are beneficial not only for your portfolio but also for your own physical and mental well-being. Learn from mistakes Everyone makes mistakes when trading. Instead of getting angry at yourself or worse, trying to recoup your losses with even more capital, go back and analyze what went wrong. Implement new strategies based on what you learn from previous mistakes and you’ll be more prepared the next time.  Set rules   Create a detailed trading plan and stick to it. This plan will outline how you approach different situations and will help keep your reactions under control during times of stress. Some examples include using stop-losses and take-profits, limiting how much money you can gain or lose in one day, and a risk management strategy with which you’re comfortable.  With a clear plan in mind, you’ll know exactly what steps need to be taken without allowing an emotional response to derail your decisions, ensuring you don’t stray from the initial plan you set out for yourself before entering a position.  Is Trading Psychology Different In Crypto? Trading psychology holds true for any asset class, including crypto. Humans are all similar to a certain degree, particularly regarding money. Most people, for instance, don’t enjoy losing money and vice-versa. Additionally, traders of any asset feel excited when they’re on a hot streak.  However, there are a few unique psychological challenges crypto traders face. Unlike the stock market, which closes on weekends, the cryptocurrency market is open 24/7. As a result, crypto traders always have access to trading tools, their assets, and, most importantly, potential opportunities. For a trader who is prone to making emotionally charged trading decisions, having 24/7 access can be very costly.  The crypto market is also highly volatile. Coin prices have doubled before dropping back to where they started — all within a day. Such drastic price swings require traders to think fast while maintaining a strong sense of discipline.  For example, professional traders don’t jump onto a rapidly rising asset just because everyone is talking about it, nor do they decide to risk all their capital because the market closes green for a day. Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Closing Thoughts Emotions are one of the most common pitfalls in crypto trading. Learning to control your emotions by understanding your mindset and emotional triggers is an invaluable skill that will protect you from chasing gains or hitting the panic button and liquidating your portfolio.  Ultimately, becoming a good trader requires years of consistent learning and practice. There’s no shortcut or life hack to getting rich by trading. Follow a strategy that suits your financial situation, keep practicing, and don’t let fear or greed force you to make a decision you wouldn’t usually make.  Further Reading The Psychology of Market Cycles What Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index? What Are Behavioral Biases and How Can We Avoid Them? What Are Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels and How to Calculate Them? How to Trade Crypto Responsibly Disclaimer and Risk Warning: This content is presented to you on an “as is” basis for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind. It should not be construed as financial advice, nor is it intended to recommend the purchase of any specific product or service. Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance Academy is not liable for any losses you may incur. Not financial advice
Now The Ethereum Market Is On The Monthly Highs Trying

Now The Ethereum Market Is On The Monthly Highs Trying

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 16.02.2023 09:28
Crypto Industry News: According to the media, the president of the United States is to appoint Laela Brainard, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, as his chief economic adviser. The problem is that it is considered a staunch enemy of cryptocurrencies. He claims these could undermine US financial stability. On the other hand, she is in favor of issuing a digital dollar that would be highly centralized and monitored by the authorities. Brainard is not someone anonymous in the Democratic community. She had previously worked at the White House, serving as deputy director of the National Economic Council (NEC). It happened during the tenure of President Bill Clinton. In 2014, she was also nominated for the position of governor of the Fed by Barack Obama. But let's get back to her attitude towards cryptocurrencies. She had previously expressed concern about the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi), saying this new technology could be exploited by criminals. At the same time, she is delighted with the idea of creating a digital dollar. She acknowledged that the US central bank is already working on such a financial product, and said that a digital version of the dollar could provide better consumer protection and monetary stability. As a consolation, we can add that she is probably not a supporter of the cryptocurrency ban. Six months ago, she appealed to the authorities to quickly regulate this market. Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Technical Market Outlook: The key technical support on ETH/USD pair, which is located at $1,487 was tested by bears already and now the market is on the monthly highs trying to test the level of $1,713. The bulls had broken above the local trend line and continue to move higher towards the next target. Only a clear and sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,569 WR2 - $1,541 WR1 - $1,532 Weekly Pivot - $1,513 WS1 - $1,503 WS2 - $1,484 WS3 - $1,456 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-17 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313001
Senator Elizabeth Warren's Digital Assets Anti-Money Laundering Act, Ethereum Shapella upgrade and more

In The Next Few Days Ethereum Has The Potential To Appreciate Up

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.02.2023 08:14
Currently on the Ethereum Cryptocurrency weekly chart there are several things that we should pay attention to, such as: 1. Sidewinder (SI) indicator in green colour which means trending and volatile once. 2. Chopzone (CZ) indicator in cyan blue which means Bullish market condition. 3, Zero Line (ZL) is green which indicates market conditions are also being bull. 4. There is a Hook on CCI (20) histogram. 5. Histogram CCI has turned green, it means that the bull is ripe. Based on the five things above, it can be concluded that in the next few days Ethereum has the potential to appreciate up to the level of 247.42 as the first target and level 430.11 as the second target, but if on its way to the targets the levels that have been described suddenly Ethereum has been corrected downwards to break below the 136.54 level, so all the bull scenarios described above will become invalid and cancel automatically   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119681
A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

The Ethereum Market Is Now In A Pull-Back Mode

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 17.02.2023 09:36
Crypto Industry News: The European Union is working on groundbreaking legislation to protect the privacy of citizens' data. Last week, the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy included zero-knowledge proof in an amendment to the Digital Identity (eID) project. Does the EU want to protect the privacy of citizens' data? On 9 February, the European Committee on Industry, Research and Energy presented amendments to the regulatory framework in the context of digital identity. Importantly, the amendment to the regulations includes a zero-knowledge proof standard. In terms of formalities - it is a cryptographic procedure in which one party can prove to the other that it is in possession of certain data without disclosing it. The committee voted to update the rules. In total, 55 votes were cast in favor and only 8 against. Subsequently, the relevant authorities will discuss the project during trilogue negotiations. Details of the project have not been made public. Despite this, the press release assured that EU citizens will be given full control over their data. In theory, they will therefore be free to decide what information can be shared and with whom. As we read in the published memo: "The new eID would enable citizens to identify and authenticate online (via a European digital identity wallet) without having to resort to commercial providers as is the case today - a practice that raises trust, security and privacy concerns." In mid-December 2022, a special research report was published on this topic. It explains in detail how zero-knowledge proof can be combined with the European electronic identity system eIDAS. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market reversed from the monthly highs and is now in a pull-back mode. The local high was made at $1,721. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,617 (100 MA) and $1,579 (50 MA). Only a clear and sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,569 WR2 - $1,541 WR1 - $1,532 Weekly Pivot - $1,513 WS1 - $1,503 WS2 - $1,484 WS3 - $1,456 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-18 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313205
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

All Cryptocurrencies From The Top Ten Showed Strong Gains

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.02.2023 14:01
On Friday, the flagship cryptocurrency started the trading day with an increase. At the time of writing, the price of BTC is trading at $23,749. In the past 24 hours, the value of the asset jumped by 8.37%. According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was trading between the low of $23,460 and the high of $25,134. On Thursday, the asset tested $25,200 for the first time since mid-June 2022. The key reason for bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market was the permanently declining volatility of securities and bonds, oil prices, as well as the weakening US dollar. Meanwhile, crypto investors continue to analyze the data published on Tuesday on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Thus, according to the US Department of Labor, the index rose by 6.4% from last month compared to January 2022 level. Experts on average predicted the January figure to fall to 6.2% from December's 6.5%. Despite the fact that the final result was worse than analysts' expectations, the US stock market began to increase followed by the crypto market. Yesterday, an important support factor for the cryptocurrency market was also the strong results of the last trading session in the US stock market. Thus, on Wednesday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average index rose by 0.11%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.28%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.92%. Since the beginning of 2022, analysts have emphasized the high level of correlation between the US stock market and digital assets against the background of the tense expectations of both the consequences of the geopolitical conflict in eastern Europe and the further steps of the US Federal Reserve. Earlier, the experts of the investment company Arcane Research have already stated that the correlation between BTC and technology securities has reached the highest level since July 2020. In addition, economists of TradingView said that the relationship of the cryptocurrency market with the US stock market in the fourth quarter of 2022 reached 70%. Read next: EUR/USD And AUD/USD Are In Downward Trend, USD/JPY Hit 135.00, GBP/USD Is Below $1.20| FXMAG.COM Altcoin market Ethereum, Bitcoin's main competitor, also started Friday with growth. At the time of writing, the asset is trading at $1,665. As for the cryptocurrencies of the top 10 by market cap, in the past 24 hours, Polygon showed the best performance, gaining 4.41%. Meanwhile, Dogecoin was the top loser and lost 4.07%. At the end of last week, all cryptocurrencies from the top ten, with the exception of some stablecoins, showed strong gains. Polygon added 13.35% and topped the rank. According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of digital asset data, over the past 24 hours, among the top 100 most capitalized digital assets, first place in the rise list went to Filecoin token, which grew by 16.18%, while Frax Share lost 10.31% and hit the bottom of the rankings. At the end of last week, Frax Share, dropping by 15.03%, was also the worst-performing digital asset in the top 100 strongest digital assets, while Astar increased by 48.61%, demonstrating the strongest growth. According to CoinGecko, as of Friday morning, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was able to consolidate above the important key $1 trillion level and stands at $1.039 trillion. Despite this, it has fallen by more than three times since November 2021, when the figure exceeded $3 trillion. Relevance up to 10:00 2023-02-18 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/335449
Senator Elizabeth Warren's Digital Assets Anti-Money Laundering Act, Ethereum Shapella upgrade and more

The Ethereum market is currently approaching the last week highs again

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 20.02.2023 11:28
Crypto Industry News: The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is looking for software engineers to work on developing and implementing central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems. On February 18, the San Francisco Fed published a job offer for a "senior application developer - digital currency." The candidate is expected to assist the Federal Reserve in designing and implementing systems critical to CBDC research. Within 24 hours of the job posting, 45 candidates expressed interest in joining the federal government to build an internal CBDC. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (informally called the San Francisco Fed) is the federal bank of the Twelfth District of the United States. The 12th District consists of the nine western states - Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington - plus the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, and Guam. The San Francisco Fed has branches in Los Angeles, Portland, Salt Lake City and Seattle. It also has a cash processing center in Phoenix. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco opened for business on November 16, 1914 to implement reserve regulations under the Federal Reserve Act. Read next: Twitter And Elon Musk Faced A Growing List Of Claims| FXMAG.COM Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market had made a local high at the level of $1,721, pulled-back lower and is currently approaching the last week highs again. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,617 (100 MA) and $1,579 (50 MA). Only a clear and sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,774 WR2 - $1,726 WR1 - $1,709 Weekly Pivot - $1,678 WS1 - $1,661 WS2 - $1,630 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 10:00 2023-02-21 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313331
A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

The Ethereum Market Is Consolidating The Recent Gains

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 21.02.2023 08:50
Crypto Industry News: According to Cameron Winklevoss, an American investor and co-founder of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, the next cryptocurrency boom will start in Asia. His comments come amid increased enforcement actions and looming crackdowns from U.S. regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission. "My working thesis is that the next bull run will start in the East. It will be a humbling reminder that cryptocurrencies are a global asset class and that the West, and indeed the United States, has always had only two options: embrace them or fall behind," Winklevoss wrote on Twitter. According to Chainalysis, Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) was the third largest cryptocurrency market in its 2022 index. Citizens of these areas held $932 billion worth of cryptocurrency between July 2021 and June 2022. CSAO was also home to seven of the top 20 countries in the 2022 index: Vietnam (1), Philippines (2), India (4), Pakistan (6), Thailand (8), Nepal (16) and Indonesia (20). In his Twitter thread, Winklevoss said that governments that don't offer clear rules and candid guidance on cryptocurrencies will be "left behind" and miss "the greatest period of growth since the advent of the commercial internet." Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market had made a local high at the level of $1,721 and is consolidating the recent gains close to the last week highs again. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,617 (100 MA) and $1,579 (50 MA). Only a clear and sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the short-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,774 WR2 - $1,726 WR1 - $1,709 Weekly Pivot - $1,678 WS1 - $1,661 WS2 - $1,630 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 08:00 2023-02-22 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313473
Senator Elizabeth Warren's Digital Assets Anti-Money Laundering Act, Ethereum Shapella upgrade and more

Hong Kong is aiming to become the world's cryptocurrency hub

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 22.02.2023 08:52
Crypto Industry News: Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China, is aiming to become the world's cryptocurrency hub. Despite the negative and even hostile attitude of the authorities of the People's Bank of China towards digital assets, the city-state constantly focuses on the adoption of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the regulatory framework that the region's authorities are working on could be crucial for the sector. Can Hong Kong's actions fuel another cryptocurrency boom? Why can the adoption of digital assets by Hong Kong, and not some other jurisdiction, be the catalyst for the next bull market in the cryptocurrency market? Yesterday, the HongKong Securities and Futures Commission announced that under the new legislation, cryptocurrency exchanges will have to apply for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) licenses in order to legally operate in the Chinese Special Economic Zone. Moreover, according to the commission statement, both institutional and retail investors will be able to trade digital assets such as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH). "As long as the basic principle of not threatening China's financial stability is violated, Hong Kong can pursue its own goal of 'one country, two systems'," said Nick Chan, a member of the National People's Congress and a cryptocurrency lawyer. What does the above news mean? To a large extent, the re-opening of Hong Kong to the digital asset sector creates huge potential for the influx of new funds. It is worth noting that Hong Kong is the fourth largest financial center in the world. Only New York, London and Singapore are ahead of it. It is also very important that capital from China may start to flow into this economic zone. According to estimates, mainland Chinese capital is about USD 500 billion. The regulations prepared by Hong Kong do not mention anything about opening up fully to the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector or self-storage of digital assets. Nevertheless, the aforementioned injection of foreign capital to this region may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. It is worth remembering that the times when China was responsible for the majority of the volume of trading in digital coins are not that far away. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market had made a local high at the level of $1,721 and then reversed lower towards 38% Fibonacci retracement level seen at $1,636. The intraday technical support is seen at $1,630 (100 MA). The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,774 WR2 - $1,726 WR1 - $1,709 Weekly Pivot - $1,678 WS1 - $1,661 WS2 - $1,630 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-02-23 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313601
ByBit calls Aragon today's outperformer. Ethereum validators earned a record $46 million in staking rewards

The Ethereum Market Made A New Local Low At The Level Of $1,596

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 23.02.2023 13:37
Crypto Industry News: The CEO of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) was critical of stablecoins during his recent speech. In his opinion, this type of asset has no chance to become "money of the future". On February 22, BIS Director General Agustin Carstens appeared at the Asia Conference as a guest of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). During his speech, he devoted a lot of attention to the topic of stablecoins and CBDC. In his opinion, last year's turmoil on the cryptocurrency market resulted in the loss of confidence of the Bank for International Settlements in this sector. Moreover, he believes that stablecoins do not have the appropriate predispositions to become "money of the future". Still, central bank digital currencies and tokenized deposits are a key aspect of financial innovation, Carstens said. The head of the BIS announced that stablecoins tied to the value of other assets, such as fiat currencies, do not operate under regulatory requirements. He added that this type of assets lack collateral, which is covered, for example, by bank deposits. Supervisory authorities and regulators from around the world have repeatedly emphasized their skeptical view of stable cryptocurrencies. Their concerns about the fundamentals and use of these assets were voiced long before the Terry stablecoin crash. Recall that this event took place in May 2022. The algorithmic stablecoin - UST - then lost its rigid link to the US dollar, and its value fell to practically zero. This led to many losses in the market, which totaled about 40 billion dollars. This year, regulators announced that they intend to implement new regulations on stablecoins. They also indicate that many entities from this market, primarily issuers, will not be able to meet the new regulations. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market had broken below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level seen at $1,636 and made a new local low at the level of $1,596 before the bounce had happened (the level of $1,596 will act as the intraday technical support from now on). The weak momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,774 WR2 - $1,726 WR1 - $1,709 Weekly Pivot - $1,678 WS1 - $1,661 WS2 - $1,630 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 09:00 2023-02-24 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313794
Is the end of NFT flipping and speculation near? LiveArt announces an NFT membership card

RMS Titanic Inc will convert artifacts found on the famous ocean liner into NFT

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 24.02.2023 10:44
Crypto Industry News: The American company RMS Titanic Inc (RMST) has announced that it will convert artifacts found on the famous ocean liner into NFT. This is a step taken by the company responsible for the search for missing items after establishing cooperation with two Hong Kong companies. The company responsible for salvaging items from the ship that sank in 1912 indicated in a statement that the collection of non-fungible tokens will consist of more than 5,500 physical artifacts that will be preserved digitally. Thanks to this technology, the exclusivity and authenticity of the items sold can be ensured. In addition, the creation of this collection will mark the appearance of the first Titanic collection in Web 3. "As custodians of the wreck of the Titanic, we are determined to ensure that its artifacts are preserved forever and made available for future generations. We believe that entering the digital space will allow us to reach a wider audience with high-quality programming that educates and inspires," said RMS Titanic CEO Jessica Sanders. It was also announced that VSFG will take care of the transformation of real elements into digital. In turn, Artifact Labs will be responsible for launching a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (being an algorithm-based association) focused on a luxury shipwreck. This will make it possible to organize diving trips and other activities, such as the development of educational programs. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has bounced from a local low seen at the level of $1,596 and is trading back above 100 MA around the level of $1,652. The weak momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680 (50 DMA). Sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support. Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,774 WR2 - $1,726 WR1 - $1,709 Weekly Pivot - $1,678 WS1 - $1,661 WS2 - $1,630 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-02-25 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313951
DPX Token Registered A 24-Hour Return Of 11.11%

Spotify Is Testing Playlists With NFT Integration In Its Latest Pilot Program

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 28.02.2023 09:34
Crypto Industry News: Spotify, one of the largest streaming platforms in the world, is testing playlists with NFT (Non-Fungible Tokens) integration in its latest pilot program. This is another attempt to use NFT outside the art world, where tokens have become very popular as a form of collecting digital art and most likely a milestone for business and the entire cryptocurrency sector. This functionality would allow the creation of playlists that will only be available to users with the appropriate NFT token. To use it, the user would have to connect his cryptocurrency wallet such as MetaMask or TrustWallet with an account with Spotify Premium functionality (this is a paid option to subscribe to an account on this platform). This would ensure that selected playlists would only be available to a narrow, elite audience who had previously decided to purchase a given NFT (for example, belonging to a specific artist or group of artists). Among the projects taking part in the pilot program were such collection names as FLUF World (its avatars are very distinctive animated rabbits), Moonbirds (a project belonging to a well-known founder of Silicon Valley start-ups Kevin Rose), Kingship (a team belonging to the Bored Ape Yacht team Club) or Overlord. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum market has made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the level of $1,664 and reversed lower to trade between the 50 and 100 MA on the H4 time frame chart. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680. Sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,672 WR2 - $1,654 WR1 - $1,642 Weekly Pivot - $1,635 WS1 - $1,624 WS2 - $1,616 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314281
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

Ethereum Bulls Are Approaching The Last Local High Level Again

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 01.03.2023 09:33
Crypto Industry News: Daleep Singh, former US Deputy National Security Advisor in the Biden administration, spoke at the Senate Banking Committee. Like many politicians before him (and probably after him) he attacked cryptocurrencies. He stated that these facilitate ransomware attacks and contribute to the evasion of US sanctions. However, Singh believes that the US government can take some steps to help offset the negative impact of cryptocurrencies. He pointed to the need to create a central bank digital currency (CBDC), which "is the best step we can take [to protect national interests] because it would displace the cryptocurrency ecosystem." He's not the only one who thinks so. In an interview in May 2022, Franklin Noll — president of consulting firm Noll Historical Consulting — also suggested that CBDCs could displace cryptocurrencies. In his opinion, CBDCs can help "displace private cryptocurrencies", with particular emphasis on "stablecoins focused on retail payment areas". He added that cryptocurrencies will not disappear, but "will remain in the niches of the payment system." Singh and Noll's opinion, however, is something isolated in Washington salons. While China has already implemented its own CBDC - the digital yuan - the US is still only analyzing the issue. Only Project Hamilton has recently been completed. Its purpose was to explore the potential of the digital dollar. However, there is little indication that the results of these analyzes will trigger any CBDC issuance activities in the US. Critics of such a cautious policy point out that CBDCs can revolutionize e.g. international trade. Thus, China with the use of the digital yuan will be able to damage the position of the dollar as a currency commonly used for cross-border transactions. Technical Market Outlook: After the three wave down move from the level of $1,664, the Ethereum bulls manage to reverse and now are approaching the last local high level again. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680, so any breakout above this levels would open the road towards the February highs seen between $1,720 - $1,8742. On the other hand, a sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,672 WR2 - $1,654 WR1 - $1,642 Weekly Pivot - $1,635 WS1 - $1,624 WS2 - $1,616 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-03-02 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314467
The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

The G20 And IMF Are Already Preparing Their Crypto Regulation

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 01.03.2023 14:32
The G20 met last weekend to discuss many topics, one of which is crypto regulation. The G20, BIS, IMF and FSB are already preparing their regulation efforts. What's coming for crypto traders?   00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:42 Crypto-News 03:43 Bitcoin 07:59 Ethereum 11:02 Cosmos 12:18 Solana 14:21 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Is the end of NFT flipping and speculation near? LiveArt announces an NFT membership card

NFT Market Looks Like It Has Been Experiencing A Second Youth

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 02.03.2023 09:46
Crypto Industry News: Looking at the wear of the so -called 'Gas Fees' on Ethereum Glassnode indicated that the NFT market is the main increase in network activity. This market, despite the ongoing bear market and the return of uncertainty to the market, looks like it has been experiencing a 'second youth'. After a sharp decrease in user activity at the end of 2022, the total gas consumption of NFT transactions increased by 97% throughout January and February and is approaching the levels of euphoria from 2021. According to Glassnode, the main catalyst for the NFT market becomes the OpenSea, Blur platform and Ordinals on Bitcoin. The BLUR's interest led to an increase in demand for blocking space. This, in turn, caused an increase in fees for validators and more ETH burned via the EIP1559 protocol introduced in 2021. However, we are far from the fundamental, significant increase in the ETH network. Although there has been a noticeable increase in the total on-chain activity, both the growth and the number of new addresses are still 40% lower than in February 2022, and the monthly average remains below the annual signaling the maintaining negative momentum. On this basis, Glassnode formulates the conclusion that NFT's interest is more common among existing users, without a special participation of a tide of new users to the Ethereum network. This, in turn, leads to the conclusion that OpenSea competes for the share in the NFT market with Blur around the same base of users of the cryptocurrency sector. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the level of $1,677 after three wave up move had been terminated with a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on H4 time frame chart.The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680, so any breakout above this levels would open the road towards the February highs seen between $1,720 - $1,8742. On the other hand, a sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,672 WR2 - $1,654 WR1 - $1,642 Weekly Pivot - $1,635 WS1 - $1,624 WS2 - $1,616 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-03 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314649
Italy Eases Windfall Tax Impact Amid China's Deflation, Focus on US Inflation Report

Global Layoffs Are Affecting The Investment Banking Sector In Asia

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 03.03.2023 08:09
Employment has increased in many industries during the pandemic, but the situation has changed and many companies are announcing job cuts. Until now, mainly technology companies have significantly reduced employment, aloe has recently been joined by other industries such as banking. In this article: Layoffs in Asian investment banking The Fed renewed investors' hopes The long-awaited update of the Ethereum network in Shanghai Layoffs in Asian investment banking Global banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are in the process of cutting thousands of jobs. Several other financial firms have also slashed jobs in recent months, including major asset managers and fintechs, amid a turbulent macroeconomic environment that has pressured consumers and soured demand in several mainstay business units. Bank of America and Citigroup cut several jobs in investment banking in Asia, joining global partners in cutting jobs Bank of America (BofA) cut about half a dozen Hong Kong investment banking jobs on Thursday, and Citi on Thursday cut four jobs from its China investment banking team. BofA, Citi cut handful of investing banking jobs in Asia - sources https://t.co/QmatsCtb9a pic.twitter.com/vBgz0scq7B — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 3, 2023 Read next: Despite The Decline Euro Remains Above 1.06, GBP/USD Is Trading Below 1.20| FXMAG.COM The Fed renewed investors' hopes Although inflation is slowing down, the fight against it continues. Banks around the world last year raised interest rates to record levels not seen since 2008. The actions of the Fed are attracting attention. After the publication of inflation data and a series of other reports (GDP, PMI), the market expects that the Fed will decide to hike by 25 bp. Recently, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Raphael Bostic told the media that he favors lower – and slower – rate hikes. On top of that, the data suggests that the labor market, somewhat astonishingly, is still solid, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates when it meets later this month. Markets opened lower after this news. The situation of interest rates has an impact on the markets, especially currency, stocks and bonds. US stocks rose on Thursday with all major indexes closing in the green. A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that its members, for the first time in 25 years, do not consider China a top three investment priority. To boost sentiment, the Chinese government is courting potential investors and declaring a "Year of Investing in China". CNBC Daily Open: Markets rallied as Fed official renewed investors' hope for 25 basis-point hike https://t.co/Q5Ofm9iGOl — CNBC (@CNBC) March 3, 2023 The long-awaited update of the Ethereum network in Shanghai The eagerly awaited Shanghai Ethereum update, which will enable the withdrawal of staked ETH, is likely to happen in the first two weeks of April. Although the update was firmly scheduled for the March release, some Ethereum developers began to doubt it. Ethereum developers now plan to launch the Goerli testnet, essentially a comprehensive update dress rehearsal, in Shanghai around March 14. About a month later, if all goes smoothly, the actual Shanghai software update will go live in mid-April. LATEST: #Ethereum developers confirm Shanghai upgrade will likely occur in April instead of March. — CoinGecko (@coingecko) March 3, 2023
A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

The Bears Of Ethereum Has Manage To Push The Prices Towards The Key Short-Term Technical Support

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 03.03.2023 08:29
Crypto Industry News: Silvergate Capital's shares fell almost in half today as the cryptocurrency bank delayed filing its annual (10K) report with the SEC. The report was due to appear in the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16. Gary Gensler will definitely not be happy about this. The institution is still "assessing the impact of events" that have occurred since late 2022. The bank has informed investors that it may not survive the current financial turmoil. Its share price has fallen by more than 60% since the beginning of the year, despite the current wave of optimism on the stock exchanges and better moods of the cryptocurrency market itself. In February, the Department of Justice opened an investigation into Silvergate's dealings with FTX and its sister company Alameda Research. Given the growing (and costly) regulatory challenges and likely investigations by regulators, as well as business challenges (exacerbated liquidity challenges amid a crisis of confidence from customers affected by recent crypto events), the company is reassessing its business and strategy. Silvergate said it has reviewed the sale of investment securities to raise funding and is examining the impact that subsequent events may have on its ability to continue as a going concern. Preliminary unaudited financial results for 2022, filed on January 17, include a net loss of $948.7 million, compared to a net profit of $75.5 million in 2021. Silvergate's net loss in 2022 is now close to 450% higher than its total market capitalization. The company has faced many challenges since late last year, after the collapse of the FTX exchange. JPMorgan bank analysts downgraded Silvergate along with a number of other Wall Street institutions. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the level of $1,677 after three wave up move had been terminated with a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on H4 time frame chart. The bears has manage to push the prices towards the key short-term technical support seen at the level of $1,558 and made the new local low at the level of $1,542. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680. A sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,672 WR2 - $1,654 WR1 - $1,642 Weekly Pivot - $1,635 WS1 - $1,624 WS2 - $1,616 WS3 - $1,581 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-04 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314790
Discontinuation Of The Silvergate Exchange Network, What Does It Mean To Burn Crypto?

Discontinuation Of The Silvergate Exchange Network, What Does It Mean To Burn Crypto?

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 05.03.2023 10:33
The constant development and increase in popularity of the cryptocurrency market causes many changes. Changes in the cryptocurrency market appear as quickly as they disappear. In this article: The end of Silvergate Exchange Network A bad manager Burning cryptocurrencies The end of Silvergate Exchange Network Silvergate Exchange Network, one of the bank's most popular offerings, enabled 24/7 transfers between investors and crypto exchanges, unlike traditional wire transfers, which can often take days to clear. Silvergate Capital Corp said on Friday it had made a risk-based decision to discontinue the Silvergate Exchange Network, two days after the digital asset-focused bank expressed doubts about its viability. Coinbase Global Inc and Galaxy Digital have dropped Silvergate as their banking partner. Stablecoin issuers Paxos and Circle, digital asset exchange Cboe, and cryptocurrency exchanges Bitstamp and Gemini have also suspended cooperation with Silvergate. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plummeted, one day after a crisis arose around Silvergate Capital, one of the most influential banks in the digital asset industry https://t.co/pYGv8ZKSA3 pic.twitter.com/sQ30lzXs83 — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 5, 2023 A bad manager Many factors influence whether we want to work in a given company or not. The main factor is earnings, then working conditions and the composition of the team is also included in the working conditions. A Gallup survey of over 7,000 American adults found that 50 percent of people leave their jobs to get away from their boss to improve their overall life at some point in their careers. The same study found that for most employees, managers fail at developing their employees' strengths, providing consistent feedback, and setting clear performance goals. Many employees have been in this situation before: the projects are addictive and the co-workers are great, but the relationship with the boss makes you miss 5:00 So what behaviors of managers evoke the greatest ire of employees? The cardinal sin, according to their subordinates, is playing favorites. Staff were also keen to leave the bullying to the schoolyard. Bosses who informally threatened to fire employees were deemed as bad as those who chose favorites Bosses who exploit their position for monetary or sexual rewards are also highly disliked. 50% of people have quit because of a bad manager — here are the 10 boss behaviors workers hate most. (via @CNBCMakeIt) https://t.co/CzK6SO9buT — CNBC (@CNBC) March 5, 2023 Burning cryptocurrencies The cryptocurrency market is evolving and with it new methods and concepts will appear. Burning cryptocurrencies involves destroying project tokens or coins by sending them to the burning address. Destroyed tokens are usually removed from circulation and cannot be used or traded in the future. There are different ways to burn tokens, depending on the project's technology and community decisions. Burning tokens can increase the value of a cryptocurrency by reducing the supply of tokens in circulation. In general, when there are fewer tokens in circulation and the demand remains the same, the price per token is likely to increase. This is one of many reasons, but it may be the main one. Token burning is a popular mechanism used by cryptocurrencies to manage their supply and increase their value. The process consists in permanently removing part of the cryptocurrency tokens from circulation. While burning coins can have several advantages, including reducing inflation and increasing the value of the remaining tokens, it also has its disadvantages, such as permanently deleting assets and needing multiple tokens to make an impact. What does it mean to burn #crypto? 🔥 Here's a beginner-friendly guide on how it works, the pros and cons of burning tokens, and examples of token burns ⤵️https://t.co/3aUay2yFZ3 — CoinGecko (@coingecko) March 5, 2023
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 06.03.2023 09:15
Crypto Industry News: Supported by Warren Buffett Nubank based in Brazil, he announced the introduction of Nucoin's own cryptocurrency. The token, which is issued in the Polygon network, will be handed over to customers of institutions as part of Airdrop. According to media reports, Nucoin will be one of the foundations of the Cashback program, in which users will receive prizes in the form of tokens. In addition, the bank's internal lottery will also be used, which will also use the token. Importantly, Nucoin will not go to the cryptocurrency exchange, because all transactions concluded with it will only be available on the Nubank platform. It is not known how much the initial price of the token will be - as long as it is set at all. According to the media, Nubank will not stop at the activities listed above. He also examines other options for using cryptocurrencies, including staking programs that will allow clients to block their Nucoins to receive more units at a certain time or get more fate for a bank lottery. Apparently, in the future there will also be an option to replace Nucoins with cash via the platform. Technical Market Outlook: The bears on the Ethereum market has manage to push the prices towards the key short-term technical support seen at the level of $1,558 and made the new local low at the level of $1,542. THe market has been seen trading horizontally since then, however no major spike up was made yet. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680. A sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,597 WR2 - $1,577 WR1 - $1,568 Weekly Pivot - $1,560 WS1 - $1,550 WS2 - $1,542 WS3 - $1,524 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-07 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314988
There Are Many Ways To Join A Crypto Community

Different Scaling Solutions Of Crypto: Optimistic And Zk Rollups

Binance Academy Binance Academy 06.03.2023 11:36
TL;DR The increasing popularity of crypto and blockchain has led to developers seeking a way to scale by improving a system’s ability to accommodate the growing demand. Sharding, sidechains, state channels, and rollups are some approaches to scaling. Blockchain rollups offload certain transaction processes to a secondary chain while storing transaction data on the main Layer 1 blockchain. In this article, we explore the two types of rollups in the crypto space – optimistic and zero-knowledge. Introduction Due to rising crypto demand, some blockchains’ abilities are tested to their limits. This could lead to network congestion and expensive transaction costs. To address this, scaling solutions are being developed and tested to increase transaction throughput and speed. Such solutions can be categorized into two groups: Layer 1 and Layer 2. Layer 1 scaling solutions like sharding make changes directly to the main blockchain (also known as a base or Layer 1 blockchain). Layer 2 scaling solutions run on top of a Layer 1 blockchain. Examples of Layer 2 scaling solutions include state channels, sidechains, and blockchain rollups. Blockchain rollups are protocols designed to enable high throughput and lower costs. They aim to fix the problem many popular blockchains face by bundling transactions and reducing data size for more efficient transaction processing and storage. Learn more on Binance.com What Are Blockchain Rollups? Rollups are a Layer 2 solution that bundles up transaction data and transfers it off the main chain (or Layer 1 blockchain). Transaction execution is then performed off-chain, while assets are held in an on-chain smart contract. The transaction data will be sent back to the main blockchain upon completion. Theoretically, any Layer 1 solution can implement rollups to increase transaction efficiency in terms of throughput. With rollups, a blockchain can increase the number of transactions processed and recorded within a certain timeframe. Presently, there are two types of rollups – optimistic rollups and zero-knowledge (zk) rollups. What Is an Optimistic Rollup? Optimistic rollups are protocols that increase transaction output by bundling multiple transactions into batches, which are processed off-chain. After that, the transaction data is recorded on the main chain with data compression techniques that help lower cost and increase speed. According to Ethereum, optimistic rollups can improve scalability by 10 to 100 times. How do optimistic rollups validate transactions? Transactions are valid by default to increase efficiency. You may wonder if this would compromise security in favor of transaction processing speeds. However, optimistic rollups use a fraud-proving scheme, with a dispute-resolution period known as a ‘challenge period.’ Within this period, anyone monitoring the rollup can submit a challenge to verify if the transaction has been processed accurately through a fraud proof. If that batch is found to have errors, the rollup protocol will rectify them by re-executing the wrong transaction(s) and updating the block. Parties who approve incorrect transactions for execution will be penalized. Limitations of optimistic rollups While there isn’t a transaction validation process, there is a challenge period that zk rollups do not have, which increases the time taken for transactions to be finalized. The finality of chains with optimistic rollups is also lower than that of zk rollups. Finality is the measure of how long a user has to wait for a reasonable guarantee that the transactions will not be reversed or altered. Withdrawals on optimistic rollups are delayed as the challenge period needs to lapse before funds can be released. In contrast, withdrawals from zk rollup take effect as soon as the zk rollup smart contract verifies the validity proof. Some people also view optimistic rollups as less efficient than zk rollups. With optimistic rollups, all transaction data must be posted on-chain to finalize transactions. With the zk counterparts, only validity proofs are required on-chain. What Is a Zero-Knowledge (zk) Rollup? Zero-knowledge rollups are protocols that bundle transactions into batches to be executed off the main chain. For every batch, a zk rollup operator will submit a summary of the required changes once the transactions in the batch have been executed. Operators have an additional role in producing validity proofs to prove that the changes are accurate. These proofs are significantly smaller than transaction data; therefore verifying them is quicker and cheaper. On Ethereum, zk rollups reduce transaction data via compression techniques when writing transactions to Ethereum as calldata, effectively reducing user fees. How do zk rollups validate transactions? Zk rollups use zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) to validate transactions. ZKPs are used by someone called a prover who wants to convince another party, known as a verifier, that they possess knowledge, thereby verifying a transaction. This is how it works: The prover provides a mathematical proof that only they can generate. The verifier uses this mathematical proof to verify the validity of the transaction. The information can receive validity proof without revealing the contents to the verifier. Benefits of zk rollups Zk rollups can offer a high level of security for users if implemented properly. One key feature contributing to this security is the use of zero-knowledge validity proofs. They ensure that the network can only function in a valid state and that operators cannot steal user funds or corrupt the system in any way. Another benefit of zk rollups is that users don't need to monitor the network. Zk rollups store all data on-chain and require validity proofs. Therefore an operator can't cheat, and users don't have to worry about network misbehavior. Additionally, zk rollups let users withdraw their funds onto the mainnet without having to cooperate with operators by proving token ownership via data availability. Similar to optimistic rollups, zk rollups also implement an off-chain execution mechanism to increase transaction execution speeds. Differences Between zk Rollups and Optimistic Rollups Below is a summary of the differences between optimistic and zk rollups. What’s the Future of Zero-knowledge & Optimistic Rollups? The future of zero-knowledge and optimistic rollups is still a question mark. As more people adopt crypto and blockchain, rollups may play a vital role in improving blockchain efficiency. Blockchains will likely continue to test various scaling solutions, including sharding, rollups, and layer 0. We could also see new solutions being created and implemented, either along with or instead of rollups. Closing Thoughts Since the demand for crypto has increased and stretched the limits of current blockchains, many have proposed different scaling solutions. In this article, we examined the inherent differences between two varieties of rollups, optimistic and zk rollups. As rollups continue being battle-tested, we may eventually see a superior variety that could help us reach scalability for mass adoption. Further Reading Blockchain Layer 1 vs. Layer 2 Scaling Solutions zk-SNARKs and zk-STARKs Explained What Is Zero-knowledge Proof and How Does It Impact Blockchain? Disclaimer and Risk Warning: This content is presented to you on an “as is” basis for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind. It should not be construed as financial advice, nor is it intended to recommend the purchase of any specific product or service. Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance Academy is not liable for any losses you may incur. Not financial advice
A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

A Hard Fork Can Raise The Ethereum Rate

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 07.03.2023 08:29
Crypto Industry News: There is just over a month left until the ETH Shanghai update, so you can expect more investor movements on this cryptocurrency. Some Ethereum holders may want to sell their crypto while others are getting ready to buy with increased turnover. There are voices that a hard fork can raise the ETH rate, but there must still be a favorable atmosphere on the broad market. Sleeping whale - the holder of 10,266 pieces of Ethereum moved them from his wallet at Circle Internet Financial and began transferring them to other wallets, including exchanges. This situation has not gone unnoticed by careful researchers. According to a blockchain explorer, the whale's ported wallet was mined in 2017. The whale also sent 1322 ETH to the cryptocurrency exchange. As a result of Silvergate's problems, the price of Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, is under strong selling pressure. Investors are wary of re-entering the market after Silvergate's recent papers raised the specter of the company's collapse. Technical Market Outlook: The bears on the Ethereum market has manage to push the prices towards the key short-term technical support seen at the level of $1,558 and made the new local low at the level of $1,542. The market has been seen trading horizontally since then, however no major spike up was made yet. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680. A sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,597 WR2 - $1,577 WR1 - $1,568 Weekly Pivot - $1,560 WS1 - $1,550 WS2 - $1,542 WS3 - $1,524 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-08 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315150
An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

An Investigation Against Terraform Labs In Singapore

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 08.03.2023 09:24
Crypto Industry News: Law enforcement in Singapore has reportedly launched an investigation against Terraform Labs, co-founded by Do Kwon. The authorities also estimated that the 31-year-old developer is not hiding in the country. The collapse of the native token LUNA and its algorithmic stablecoin UST was one of the "darkest" events in crypto last year. The stablecoin, which was supposed to have a fixed price of $1, lost its exchange rate against the dollar in May 2022 and fell well below its target value. Realizing the turmoil, investors began selling their UST reserves. This resulted in the minting of more LUNAs to stabilize the free fall, greatly increasing the supply of the native coin. In the end, both assets lost virtually all of their value in a matter of days, resulting in multi-billion dollar losses for investors and a wide market decline that echoed for months. Affected investors and numerous institutions accused Do Kwon, co-founder of Terraform Labs, of complicity in the collapse. However, he was uncooperative and allegedly left South Korea to avoid the consequences of the alleged fraud. Technical Market Outlook: The bears on the Ethereum market has manage to push the prices towards the key short-term technical support seen at the level of $1,558 and made the new local low at the level of $1,542. The market has been seen trading horizontally since then, but the bearish pressure is increasing and traders might see the breakout soon. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680. A sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,597 WR2 - $1,577 WR1 - $1,568 Weekly Pivot - $1,560 WS1 - $1,550 WS2 - $1,542 WS3 - $1,524 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-03-09 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315318
Senator Elizabeth Warren's Digital Assets Anti-Money Laundering Act, Ethereum Shapella upgrade and more

The Bearish Pressure Is Increasing On The Ethereum Market

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 09.03.2023 09:08
Crypto Industry News: The Russian Association of Cryptoeconomics, Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain, an organization representing the Russian cryptocurrency and blockchain technology market, appealed to President Vladimir Putin himself for help in creating regulations for the industry. Experts fear that the Russian Federation may lag behind other countries in this matter. In a letter to the Russian head of state, members of the organization warn that the government's approach to regulating the digital asset market poses "serious risks" related to the economy's lagging behind "new financial technologies." The association argues that the current state policy does not allow Russian companies to use the potential of new financial instruments. Moreover, it forces them to relocate to other jurisdictions. This entails direct financial losses for the state treasury. This "extremely conservative and prohibitive approach" could cause Russia's "digital economy" to slow down. Such a turn of events, in turn, "will deprive the country of the opportunity to become a leader in the implementation of digital payment and accounting systems." The letter sent to the president also reminded about the meeting with IT associations that took place in 2019. New regulations were discussed at that time. Although there were plans to establish regulatory sandboxes, these ideas were not implemented. In turn, the proposed changes to the Russian law "On Digital Financial Assets" make it difficult to implement innovative solutions on the market. But what exactly do Russian experts demand? They ask the president to convene a meeting on all the issues mentioned. They also suggest establishing a working group that would prepare a pilot project to introduce digital financial technologies to the domestic market. Technical Market Outlook: The bears on the Ethereum market has made the new local low at the level of $1,525 as the bearish pressure is increasing. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680. A sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,597 WR2 - $1,577 WR1 - $1,568 Weekly Pivot - $1,560 WS1 - $1,550 WS2 - $1,542 WS3 - $1,524 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-10 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315472
Cross-Chain Interoperability Solutions Have The Potential To Significantly Improve

For Dexs Higher Revenue Can Attract More Users

Binance Academy Binance Academy 09.03.2023 10:55
TL;DR Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols offer decentralized financial services via smart contracts and charge fees for those services. When a DeFi project’s revenue increases, it attracts more users and liquidity. Introduction Choosing between different DeFi protocols can take plenty of time and effort. Many seem similar, so how do we know which one is the best for generating passive income from our crypto? An essential step is understanding a platform’s revenue and how much of it is shared with its users. You can then use this information to make an informed decision on where to invest your assets. Learn more on Binance.com How DeFi Protocols Function Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols offer a range of financial services that operate via smart contracts. For example, a DeFi protocol could offer decentralized exchange services, loans, and liquidity pools, all run via smart contracts on a blockchain. All you need to access and use these services is a wallet and some crypto to cover your transaction fees. There’s almost no limit to the financial services DeFi can offer. You can access exchange services, money markets, derivatives, and savings products in the DeFi world. All of these services are permissionless and disintermediated in nature. How DeFi Protocols Generate Revenue DeFi services’ operating costs come from the computing power needed to run smart contracts. Users typically cover this amount with the gas fees they pay. However, there are also other additional costs for services such as development and maintenance.  DeFi protocols charge fees for their services to cover these costs and generate a profit. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) Users swapping tokens on a DEX must pay a fee to utilize its services. For example, a trade may incur a 0.3% fee for the DEX operator's treasury or liquidity reserves. Lending protocols Users who borrow from a lending protocol must pay a borrowing fee. Some of this will go to paying the liquidity provider (other users who have provided capital), while the rest will go to the protocol. Why Revenue Is Important Beyond covering a protocol’s costs, improved revenue and profits can also benefit stakers. DeFi projects often maintain a revenue-sharing model via their governance token holders. They also may use revenues to increase APRs for stakers or liquidity providers on their platforms.  For DEXs, higher revenue can attract more users and in turn, improve liquidity. It can also boost APY for yield aggregators if they benefit from combining users’ staked funds for “bribes” as network validators. To summarize, we can describe a project’s inflows and revenues in a circular fashion: Popular projects attract liquidity, which attracts more users and forms a virtuous cycle. Higher trading traffic and liquidity lead to lower slippage and faster execution. More users improve legitimate trading volume, which leads to more revenue. Revenue is shared with staked users, which provides more liquidity. This loop also attracts users who want to engage in yield farming. Those looking to invest their money can increase their chances of maximizing their gains with compound interest. The more successful a project is, the more liquidity and, in turn, the more yield farmers it will attract. This process generates more revenue that can be used to improve a protocol’s offering. How to See How Much DeFi Protocols Generate DeFi operates on-chain, which means almost all transactional information — depending on the blockchain used — is verifiable. Blockchain explorer is easily accessible by everyone, but that doesn’t mean we can always understand the extent of a protocol’s revenue. There are a number of blockchain data aggregators that simplify the task so you can better understand each protocol’s revenue. With a Google search and some research from trusted sources, you should be able to find metrics, revenues, and stats on DeFi protocols’ revenues. These figures can help you make more informed investment decisions. Closing Thoughts Revenue is a crucial metric to study, whether you’re looking at a project’s real yield or basic fundamentals. You can wisely invest only if you understand how a protocol generates and shares its revenue. You can further understand the topic by diving into DeFi 2.0, yield farming, and general financial topics on Binance Academy. Further Reading What Is Yield Farming in Decentralized Finance (DeFi)? | Binance Academy What Is DeFi 2.0 and Why Does it Matter? | Binance Academy Introduction to DeFi | Binance Academy   Disclaimer and Risk Warning: This content is presented to you on an “as is” basis for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind. It should not be construed as financial advice, nor is it intended to recommend the purchase of any specific product or service. Please read our full disclaimer here for further details. Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance Academy is not liable for any losses you may incur. This material should not be construed as financial advice. For more information, see our Terms of Use and Risk Warning.  
The German Financial Supervisory Authority (Bafin) Has Confirmed That NFTs Are Not Securities

The German Financial Supervisory Authority (Bafin) Has Confirmed That NFTs Are Not Securities

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 10.03.2023 10:28
Crypto Industry News: Several jurisdictions around the world have stepped up their efforts to regulate the digital asset industry. Also in Germany, the financial watchdog has issued guidance on the regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies, including for anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing purposes. The German Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has confirmed that NFTs are not securities. In a recently released statement, officials argued that digital asset ownership tokens were for speculation only. Therefore, they do not qualify as an investment vehicle. They argue that NFTs have so far not exhibited characteristics similar to financial securities such as shares, which prevents them from being considered securities in the regulatory sense. So far, BaFin is not aware of any NFTs that could be classified as securities in the regulatory sense. However, the regulator also added that perhaps in the future, NFTs could qualify as a security: "If NFTs are to be classified as securities under the EU Prospectus Regulation or as investments under the Asset Investment Act (VermAnlG), a prospectus must always be prepared." In Europe, all eyes are on MiCA. The final vote on the long-awaited EU set of crypto rules is touted as the first comprehensive European crypto framework. It excludes provisions for NFTs. However, last summer, European Commission adviser Peter Kerstens suggested that NFT issuers could potentially be equated with crypto service providers. This will require them to regularly report on their activities to the European Securities and Markets Authority. Technical Market Outlook: The bears on the Ethereum market has made the new local low at the level of $1,391 after they broke below the technical support seen at $1,487. A sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, which is the next technical support for bulls. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,597 WR2 - $1,577 WR1 - $1,568 Weekly Pivot - $1,560 WS1 - $1,550 WS2 - $1,542 WS3 - $1,524 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-03-11 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315662
There Are Many Ways To Join A Crypto Community

There Are Many Ways To Join A Crypto Community

Binance Academy Binance Academy 12.03.2023 10:31
TL;DR The crypto and blockchain world can be intimidating for those wanting to start their journey. The ever-evolving nature of blockchain and the sheer amount of information often overwhelm beginners. Finding a community of like-minded people can be a great way to get you started in the crypto space. Introduction Web3 is a term describing the next iteration of the World Wide Web. It differs from its predecessor, Web2, as it’s built on fundamental principles of decentralization, trustless collaboration, censorship resistance, and ownership. Web3 applications allow users to interact or exchange data without the need for intermediaries. While we aren’t exactly living in a Web3 world quite yet, there’s a community of people that are aiming to make that happen. Developers, investors, influencers, and other crypto enthusiasts have been working on a variety of Web3 projects, from infrastructure to decentralized apps (DApps). Crypto communities are composed of people who are passionate about crypto. Community members could bond over their love for NFTs, DeFi, Layer 2 solutions, and all things crypto-related. Crypto communities are essential for sharing knowledge, and blockchains like Bitcoin, BNB Chain, and Ethereum typically have their own communities. Relatively technical concepts, such as mining or Proof of Work (PoW), have become common knowledge thanks to the efforts of these crypto communities in creating more accessible information. Through their collective advancement of knowledge and education, crypto communities have proven to be a significant driving force for the blockchain industry. Due to the borderless nature of crypto, communities often exist online and communicate through discussion forums, chat rooms, and social media. For example, the crypto Twitter community is a niche group of investors, developers, companies, and influencers, each championing their own crypto cause on the platform. Staying updated Joining a crypto community is an excellent way to stay updated on new trends, technologies, concepts, products, and tools. This allows you to make more informed decisions and participate in time-sensitive events. Finding a mentor Throughout your research, have you ever encountered complex technical papers or Web3 publications? Being in a community of developers, crypto entrepreneurs, and other experts can help make certain topics easier to understand and research. Gaining an edge As part of an active community, you are given an edge by having access to the latest information that is yet to be widely known. You can gain insight into developing trends and learn from people with similar experiences. Additionally, a community's collective wisdom can help you make better decisions, network with other professionals, and stay updated on industry developments. Customer service Some communities have official administrators and managers. Rather than struggle alone, investors can receive direct feedback and assistance from members and administrators alike. Starting a business Informal conversations between community members could be the driving force behind new innovations. You can share business insights, discuss opinions, and exchange information through casual chats. Within a community, you might even find your future team members or business partners. Sense of belonging Are you team Layer 1 or Layer 2? Do you have a favorite NFT artist? Even if you’re the only crypto nerd in your friend circle, you’re bound to find others like you. Explore projects and forums As mentioned above, most projects and blockchains have their own established communities. To be part of the action, visit their websites or socials – including Telegram, Twitter, Discord, or Facebook. Alternatively, if you’re entering the crypto space alone with no specific community in mind, Reddit could also be a place to start. Reddit is an online forum where crypto enthusiasts can read crypto news, view user-submitted analyses, and participate in discussions. Some of the crypto communities on Reddit include /r/bitcoin, /r/btc, /r/binance, and /r/cryptocurrency. Be vocal Engaging in online conversations with others through the comments section of relevant crypto posts can be an easy way to find like-minded people. Share your opinions and interests; start engaging in discussions and activities. Enroll in classes Look for a Web3 course that interests you. Online or offline, the classroom can be a great place to start meaningful discussions about Web3 and form new connections.  Meetups Attending a blockchain or crypto-related meetup, participating in an online discussion forum, or joining a social media group are great ways to connect with knowledgeable people. Some blockchain events facilitate networking parties, business matchmaking, and AMAs. Participating in these can help you gain exposure and meet new community members. Contribute to a project or cause Find a community that thrives on participating in the development of crypto. The blockchain ecosystem is collaborative by nature – its tenets of borderlessness, open-source, decentralization, and trustlessness all help to foster collaboration.  Many projects in the crypto space adopt an open-source approach, where the source code used to build their technology is available to the public and can be modified to a degree. This allows community members to provide solutions and innovations faster. One such community is GitHub, an online platform that facilitates collaboration between developers and users. It allows developers to share code and work together on open-source projects. Users can also discuss ideas, give feedback, and offer assistance. Platforms like GitHub also organize events such as hackathons and meetings to promote community involvement. It’s also not uncommon for projects to launch incentive-based events called bounty programs to encourage people to contribute to their growth. What Are the Risks in Crypto Communities? Like any other online community, crypto communities come with their own risks. One of the main risks associated with crypto communities is the potential for fraud. As mentioned, communities are often open to anyone. This means that scammers and bots can join the group. For example, you may receive a direct message from someone claiming to be a group admin. Do take extra care to verify that this is not a scammer trying to get your money. Scammers may try to get your personal information or private keys through a malicious link or other types of cryptocurrency scams. There is also the risk that the community will differ from what you initially expected. For example, the community may be based solely on hype to drive up token prices. This can create a culture of greed and speculation that may differ greatly from the original reason you joined the community. Similarly, crypto communities can be filled with misinformation, making it difficult to separate facts. Therefore, be careful when making investment decisions based on community conversations.   Conclusion Depending on your interests and experience, there are many ways to join a crypto community. Whether pursuing a personal financial goal, a new business venture, or an unfamiliar topic to learn, having a community to collaborate with can be helpful. Share insights, form a network of like-minded individuals, and grow from each others’ mistakes. You could even find your future business team! From bouncing ideas off each other to providing moral support, having people to help you is crucial for success. Further Reading How to Set Personal Financial Goals and Reach Them Crypto vs Stocks: What Is The Difference? Top 7 Technologies that Power the Metaverse What Is Web 3.0 and Why Does It Matter? Disclaimer and Risk Warning: This content is presented to you on an “as is” basis for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind. It should not be construed as financial advice, nor is it intended to recommend the purchase of any specific product or service. Please read our full disclaimer here for further details. Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions, and Binance Academy is not liable for any losses you may incur. Not financial advice. For more information, see our Terms of Use and Risk Warning.
The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

The Ethereum Has Located Just Above The Key Short-Term Technical Support

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 13.03.2023 11:03
Crypto Industry News: The executives of California-based Silvergate Bank, a financial intermediary for the cryptocurrency industry that recently filed for bankruptcy and went into liquidation, sold shares worth more than $103 million in total at the peak of the crypto bull market. Former CEO Dennis Frank "worked out" about 25% of that statistic by selling nearly 189,000 shares between March and November 2021. President Frank's average selling price was $140 apiece. Other insiders selling at the top include vice chief executive Derek Eisele, chief executive officer Alan Lane, chief strategist Ben Reynolds and chief operating officer Kathleen Fraher. According to data from the insider trading service OpenInsider, insiders were selling their shares for an average of $133 per share. The value of the shares cashed in at the top is 4% of the company's average market capitalization of $3.6 billion during the highs of the cryptocurrency market. It is worth noting that some insiders bought stocks at a time when the bull market was in full swing, such as CEO Lane and CEO Thomas Dircks. They spent a total of nearly $250,000 on stocks in November 2019. Lane later sold nearly 178,000 shares for $18.6 million between June 2021 and July 2022. Silvergate's leadership, however, was not alone in its action. Insiders at other leading cryptocurrency companies, including Signature, MicroStrategy, Block (formerly Square), and cryptocurrency mining companies like Marathon and Riot, sold around $661.4 million in stocks as markets peaked during the recent bull market . Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had bounced from the level of $1,369, located just above the key short-term technical support and is currently testing the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $1,633. The 50 DMA is seen at the level of $1,598, so any daily candle close above this level might be bullish in the short-term for ETH. The positive momentum on the daily time frame chart supports the short-term bullish bias for ETH. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,709 WR2 - $1,656 WR1 - $1,629 Weekly Pivot - $1,603 WS1 - $1,575 WS2 - $1,550 WS3 - $1,497 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.     Relevance up to 10:00 2023-03-14 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315834
The Ethereum Is Currently Approaching The Monthly Highs

The Ethereum Is Currently Approaching The Monthly Highs

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 14.03.2023 09:06
Crypto Industry News: The Ethereum-based non-trust lending protocol Eurler Finance faced a flash loan attack where the attacker managed to steal nearly $200 million in various cryptocurrencies. According to data on the chain, according to the last update, the attacker has carried out many transactions, stealing almost 196 million dollars. The ongoing attack has already become the biggest hack of 2023. According to the crypto-analytical company Meta Seluth, the attack correlates with the deflationary attack from a month ago. The hacker used a multi-chain bridge to transfer funds from BNB Smart Chain (BSC) to Ethereum and launched the attack today. ZachXBT, another prominent on-chain detective, added that the flow of funds and the nature of the attack seems quite similar to the black hats that used the BSC-based protocol last month. After using the protocol in BSC, the funds were deposited in the Tornado Cash cryptocurrency mixer. Euler Finance admitted to the hack and said it is currently working with security specialists and law enforcement to resolve the issue. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had bounced from the level of $1,369, located just above the key short-term technical support and is currently approaching the monthly highs seen at the level of $1,742. The last daily candle close was above the 50 DMA, so this is a very bullish indication. The intraday technical support comes with the help of 50 MA seen at $1,619 and 100 MA seen at $1,644. The positive momentum on the daily time frame chart supports the short-term bullish bias for ETH. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,709 WR2 - $1,656 WR1 - $1,629 Weekly Pivot - $1,603 WS1 - $1,575 WS2 - $1,550 WS3 - $1,497 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-15 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315991
Bank of England: Falling Corporate Price Expectations May Signal Peak in Rate Hike Cycle

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Adoption Soars Globally, US Lags Behind as Retail CBDC Stalls

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:17
The latest research shows that almost all countries are intensifying work on the creation of central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems, and some of them are close to completing this work. According to a report by the Atlantic Council think tank, based in Washington, 130 countries, which together generate 98% of the world's GDP, are exploring the possibility of introducing it. This is a huge increase compared to May 2020, when only 35 countries were considering implementing a CBDC.   The report shows that a record number of 64 countries are already at an advanced stage of exploring the CBDC system. They have implemented initial development, are conducting pilot tests or are even in the commissioning phase. Among them are 19 out of 20 G20 countries. Interestingly, the US seems to be the exception to this rule, with retail CBDC adoption progressing. This one seems to be stuck there at a dead end right now.     Technical Market Outlook: The bulls are clearly in control of the ETH market and they resumed the up trend again and made the last high at the level of $1,974. The market is approaching the key technical support located at the level of $1,930, so in a case of a bounce from this level the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,020. The momentum turned into positive on the RSI (14) indicator, so the short-term outlook for ETH remains bullish, however the market conditions on the lower time frames are now extremely overbought. The short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,777.  
Weak July Performance: Polish Retail Sales Disappoint Amid Economic Challenges

Tips for Trading Ethereum (ETH)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 14:24
Tips for trading ETH The price test at $1,677 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the negative zone, confirming the correct selling entry point for Ethereum. As a result, there was a drop to nearly the support level of $1,634, which was missed by a hair's breadth. It seems the pressure on Ethereum may persist, and we should anticipate further sharp declines in the trading instrument, given the decrease in buying incentives and market optimism since last week. The fact that ETH buyers missed out on $1,815 sooner or later had to lead to what we currently observe on the chart. It is better to be ready for the instrument's further decline, relying on scenarios 1 and 2.     Buy signal Scenario 1: One can buy Ethereum today at the entry point near $1,684 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward $1,707 (thicker green line on the chart). Near the level of $1,707, it is better to close long positions and open short ones. Ethereum is unlikely to grow today, especially following such a substantial sell-off that triggered numerous stop-loss orders. Important! Before buying ETH, make sure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario 2: You can also buy Ethereum today in the case of two consecutive price tests at $1,673. This may limit the downward potential of the trading instrument and lead to an upward reversal. We can expect ETH to grow towards the opposite levels of $1,684 and $1,707.   Sell signal Scenario 1: You may sell Ethereum today after $1,673 is breached (red line on the chart), leading to a swift drop in the trading instrument. Bears see their key target at $1,654, where it is better to close short positions and open long ones. Pressure on Ethereum may surge at any moment. Important! Before selling ETH, make sure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario 2: One can sell Ethereum today in the case of two consecutive price tests at $1,684 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This may limit the trading instrument's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. We can also expect a decline toward the opposite levels of $1,673 and $1,654.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument. Thick green line - assumed price for placing take-profit orders or locking in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument. Thick red line - assumed price for placing take-profit orders or locking in profits manually, as further decline below this level is improbable. MACD Indicator. When entering the market, adhere to overbought and oversold zones.   Important Novice cryptocurrency market traders must exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without proper stop orders, you can quickly deplete your deposit, especially if you're not using money management and are trading with substantial volumes.   Remember that successful trading necessitates a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.  

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