Silver, the race is on
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Official records show the US owns some 8,133 tonnes of Gold. While the official number of China’s holding is lower, a fair guesstimate is that China holds roughly 14,500 tonnes.
Fintech and IT Benchmarks 2021 research found that nine in ten central banks are feverishly working on digital currencies. Who will have immediate trust to exchange all their currency nest eggs in a brand-new technology? Even Bitcoin, which has proven itself in its ‘sector,’ is allocated not more than one to fifteen percent in the most progressive funds.
It can also be assumed that China, which has been working on digital currencies since at least 2014, has the most advanced development in its projects. Meaning, we could expect a possible shift in world power.
These and many more facts point towards a physical acquisition of Silver at recently reduced prices in the Silver market to be a good insurance play for wealth preservation.
Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, What has happened since last week?
Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 30th, 2021.
We posted the grey section of the daily chart above in last weeks chart book publication with the following text: “We have strong resistance above us (red horizontal box). In addition, the yellow line represents the simple 200-moving average. Probably the most observed moving average, and as such significant in technical analysis. Consequently, we expect prices to decline from there and providing a low-risk double bottom entry near the US$25 level. This would allow the reader ample time to compare their findings. Compare your charts and trading system with our approach to plan a possible trade setup. We are fully transparent and as such, feel free to ask questions in our free Telegram channel.”
Prices followed precisely our anticipated moves and allowed us to post real-time in our Telegram channel a daily trading signal at US$24.53 on July 27th and a weekly trading signal on July 28th at US$25.175 to go long the Silver market. Fear not; this doesn’t mean you missed the boat if you weren’t able to enter the Silver market just yet.
Let us have a look at the weekly setup and possible entry points:
Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Low-risk entry:
Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 30th, 2021.
If you look at the weekly chart above, you will find a trade entry near US$25, offering a long setup with enough room towards US$26 to get the trade financed (risk-free, see our quad exit strategy). Though the price struggles at US$26 (see the fractal volume analysis histogram showing a distribution zone near that price zone), we are confident this entry is worth a shot.
What can also be found is a very similar oscillator divergence (b) like last time price touched the up-sloping green trend-line (a). While price moved down, the turbo (yellow line on Commodity Channel Index) went up. In addition, the stochastic (with setting five) also shows similarly an oversold setup slightly below the 20 mark (green circles).
Evidence supports that price might retest the price zone near US$25 with the next weekly candle opening. This allows again for a low-risk weekly entry, should you not be positioned yet. Hence, it’s prudent to watch the early days next week for a possible low-risk entry spot.
Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The big picture, Silver, The race is on:
Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 30th, 2021.
A closer inspection of the monthly chart provides compounding evidence of the long-term bullish trend in Silver. Recent price development for a possible turning point is supported through multiple technical analysis facts:
- Price bounced from a harmonic Fibonacci level.
- Price bounced from the 15-simple moving average, which is a significant average for this time frame (bright green line).
- Bears are struggling to force prices lower after a significant double top near US$30.
- A sequence of higher price lows along the mid-line of the Linear Regression channel (blue line) warrants a bullish tone after the significant up-leg from US$11.64 March 2020 to US$30.09 this year.
With this much evidence of a possible second leg up being underway for much higher price levels than smaller time frames illustrate, we are aggressively buying into lower time frame low-risk entry opportunities.
Silver, the race is on:
We have no clue how governments will try to hold on to monetary control and power. History shows that they always had a trick up their sleeves like confiscation (this is why we prefer Silver over Gold since Silver is less likely to become an illegal commodity to be owned).
We rather avoid the risk based on “the early bird catches the worm.” Bitcoin carries the risk of becoming unlawful since it is relatively new in the mix. Gold is so highly priced that soon even small denominations will become less accessible for everybody. Silver, as of now, seems to fit the bill the best, both in wealth preservation and wealth creation.
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By Korbinian Koller|July 30th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments
About the Author: Korbinian Koller
Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
