Our optimism for further advances is principle-based. The following analysis shows why we perceive a continuation in price advances with low-risk entry possibilities.
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, A healthy breath:
BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of March 1st, 2021.
A glance at the monthly chart above shows that as much as the trend is steep, it is in good health. The upper wicks on the monthly candles indicate a healthy breath. What expands must retrace. And Bitcoin does just that. It has strong pushes upwards but then gives profits partially back. It takes a deep breath up to be followed by harmonious breathing out. We see no indication from the most critical larger time frame why Bitcoin prices could not continue to advance soon, even to surpass their all-time highs within the next months. There is no blow-off volume plotted nor irregular fractal volume distribution of supply and demand zones. There are no warning signals of ill health. This athlete is fit for a marathon.
BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Most likely:
BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2021.
All trading instruments have their probabilistic personality. Bitcoin is volatile and has typically larger retracements in size. These personalities provide for a good mathematical guideline of what is most likely to happen. Of course, they can also change over time).
A closer look at the weekly chart above shows prices to sit right below a distribution zone indicated by a volume analysis showing resistance overhead at US$47,396. Bitcoin most likely gets pushed one more time to lower price levels before advancing. Therefore, we are buying into the market within a range center at prices of US$37,630 (+/-1k).
BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Bitcoin on the move:
BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 1st, 2021.
We see three possible scenarios. The daily chart shows in their most likely probability scenario: number one likely, scenario two the second likely, and scenario three the least likely. One should participate in all three events with entries and use our quad exit strategy to protect these events from costing any money. Instead, irrespective of their longer outcome, provide for at least a small profit.
Bitcoin on the move:
With larger time frames in mind, technical analysis isn’t the only factor pointing towards higher prices. The sustainability of Bitcoin and demand for this technology are more and more transparent. Some argue that Bitcoin’s anonymity creates crime. We find the true principle there to be an aspect of criminal behavior within humanity. Cash is used for some unlawful transactions. That doesn’t render cash transactions inherently to be illegal. In a world where excessive data eradicates privacy, one needs to be asking if the need for a payment system that allows for some of that privacy isn’t something necessary. That is to say protection of human potential that is born out of personal privacy.
Less philosophical, there is a need for wealth preservation right now. Worldwide monetary policy eradicates the value of fiat currency fast. For the short term, we find there to be a threat of further value dilution. Upcoming stimulus package payments require money printing again. For the midterm, we see the first signs of a different attitude towards the risk of the printing machine between European countries and the US. Ill-gotten behavior has an extended shelf life when the whole world dances the same waltz. Once opinions diverge, resulting in various diverging actions, the house of cards is tumbling fast. In this case, while Bitcoin might be dropping temporarily and take one of its deeper breathing out phases, it will be the first that takes an inhale on a level astounding even its fans.
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By Korbinian Koller| March 1st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments
About the Author: Korbinian Koller
Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
