COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

November 20, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-16-2021

OI

OI-Index

Spec-Net

Spec-Index

Com-Net

COM-Index

Smalls-Net

Smalls-Index

EUR

705,698

86

-3,826

34

-26,985

68

30,811

25

JPY

252,897

91

-93,126

10

115,758

94

-22,632

1

GBP

207,099

43

-31,599

51

41,182

54

-9,583

36

MXN

170,102

33

-47,655

2

46,127

99

1,528

50

AUD

166,688

57

-61,153

27

69,858

71

-8,705

31

CAD

148,955

30

8,709

62

-26,717

35

18,008

74

USD Index

59,387

88

34,908

86

-40,455

7

5,547

77

RUB

52,624

58

22,625

67

-23,936

31

1,311

70

CHF

49,320

27

-8,889

54

18,767

52

-9,878

34

NZD

42,945

30

13,965

95

-15,521

6

1,556

70

BRL

31,767

32

-15,698

48

15,743

54

-45

66

Bitcoin

13,648

78

-1,478

69

357

0

1,121

23

 

US Dollar Index Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 1The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

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US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

80.8

3.4

12.8

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

22.0

71.5

3.5

– Net Position:

34,908

-40,455

5,547

– Gross Longs:

47,959

2,000

7,621

– Gross Shorts:

13,051

42,455

2,074

– Long to Short Ratio:

3.7 to 1

0.0 to 1

3.7 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

86.0

7.4

77.2

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish-Extreme

Bearish-Extreme

Bullish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

5.0

-2.7

-13.6

 

Euro Currency Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 2The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

28.1

57.3

12.8

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

28.6

61.1

8.4

– Net Position:

-3,826

-26,985

30,811

– Gross Longs:

198,181

404,266

90,261

– Gross Shorts:

202,007

431,251

59,450

– Long to Short Ratio:

1.0 to 1

0.9 to 1

1.5 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

33.8

68.1

25.4

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bearish

Bullish

Bearish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

5.7

-5.2

-0.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 3The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

24.4

61.4

11.3

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

39.6

41.5

15.9

– Net Position:

-31,599

41,182

-9,583

– Gross Longs:

50,443

127,197

23,322

– Gross Shorts:

82,042

86,015

32,905

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.6 to 1

1.5 to 1

0.7 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

51.2

54.0

35.8

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish

Bullish

Bearish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

-8.3

9.2

-8.1

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 4The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

9.7

80.5

8.6

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

46.6

34.7

17.6

– Net Position:

-93,126

115,758

-22,632

– Gross Longs:

24,635

203,468

21,790

– Gross Shorts:

117,761

87,710

44,422

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.2 to 1

2.3 to 1

0.5 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

10.4

93.7

0.8

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bearish-Extreme

Bullish-Extreme

Bearish-Extreme

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

-18.4

15.5

-4.1

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 5The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

11.2

64.2

24.4

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

29.2

26.1

44.5

– Net Position:

-8,889

18,767

-9,878

– Gross Longs:

5,502

31,663

12,048

– Gross Shorts:

14,391

12,896

21,926

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.4 to 1

2.5 to 1

0.5 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

54.4

52.0

34.3

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish

Bullish

Bearish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

11.9

-12.2

11.8

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 6The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

29.6

42.1

27.1

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

23.8

60.0

15.0

– Net Position:

8,709

-26,717

18,008

– Gross Longs:

44,147

62,689

40,389

– Gross Shorts:

35,438

89,406

22,381

– Long to Short Ratio:

1.2 to 1

0.7 to 1

1.8 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

62.3

34.9

74.0

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish

Bearish

Bullish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

29.6

-26.4

10.0

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 7The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

18.5

67.2

11.8

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

55.1

25.3

17.1

– Net Position:

-61,153

69,858

-8,705

– Gross Longs:

30,760

112,044

19,744

– Gross Shorts:

91,913

42,186

28,449

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.3 to 1

2.7 to 1

0.7 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

27.1

71.0

31.2

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bearish

Bullish

Bearish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

27.1

-29.0

24.4

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 8The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

61.4

24.1

11.5

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

28.9

60.2

7.8

– Net Position:

13,965

-15,521

1,556

– Gross Longs:

26,388

10,349

4,923

– Gross Shorts:

12,423

25,870

3,367

– Long to Short Ratio:

2.1 to 1

0.4 to 1

1.5 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

94.7

6.5

69.7

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish-Extreme

Bearish-Extreme

Bullish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

9.9

-11.8

19.8

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 9The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

41.1

55.3

3.1

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

69.2

28.2

2.2

– Net Position:

-47,655

46,127

1,528

– Gross Longs:

69,984

94,074

5,245

– Gross Shorts:

117,639

47,947

3,717

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.6 to 1

2.0 to 1

1.4 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

1.5

98.8

49.5

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bearish-Extreme

Bullish-Extreme

Bearish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

-5.5

5.6

-1.5

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 10The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

26.7

64.6

8.0

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

76.1

15.0

8.2

– Net Position:

-15,698

15,743

-45

– Gross Longs:

8,468

20,507

2,545

– Gross Shorts:

24,166

4,764

2,590

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.4 to 1

4.3 to 1

1.0 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

47.6

54.4

66.3

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bearish

Bullish

Bullish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

-17.9

19.3

-12.9

 

Russian Ruble Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 11The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

57.7

37.7

4.6

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

14.7

83.2

2.1

– Net Position:

22,625

-23,936

1,311

– Gross Longs:

30,357

19,849

2,418

– Gross Shorts:

7,732

43,785

1,107

– Long to Short Ratio:

3.9 to 1

0.5 to 1

2.2 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

66.9

30.7

70.2

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish

Bearish

Bullish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

5.2

-3.3

-20.9

 

Bitcoin Futures:

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks - 12The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics

SPECULATORS

COMMERCIALS

SMALL TRADERS

– Percent of Open Interest Longs:

63.4

5.0

14.7

– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:

74.2

2.4

6.5

– Net Position:

-1,478

357

1,121

– Gross Longs:

8,649

678

2,008

– Gross Shorts:

10,127

321

887

– Long to Short Ratio:

0.9 to 1

2.1 to 1

2.3 to 1

NET POSITION TREND:

     

– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):

68.7

71.4

22.9

– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):

Bullish

Bullish

Bearish

NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:

     

– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:

0.9

-20.8

4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.