Back to Risk-Off

Back to Risk-Off

S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.

The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.

On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gainsand more good calls are in the making, naturally:

Back to Risk-Off - 1

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

Back to Risk-Off - 2

S&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.

Credit Markets

Back to Risk-Off - 3

HYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.

Gold, Silver and Miners

Back to Risk-Off - 4

Precious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.

Crude Oil

Back to Risk-Off - 5

Crude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.

Copper

Back to Risk-Off - 6

Copper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Back to Risk-Off - 7

Crypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.

Summary

  1. S&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...

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Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial markets analyst. Checking dozens of charts daily, she integrates their messages with economics and in-depth experience. Trade calls and writing are her cup of tea as much as studies in market histories. Having been at the financial markets when the Great Recession arrived, she experienced many bull and bear markets - be it in stocks, bonds, gold and silver. Check her out at https://www.monicakingsley.co