Timing Woes: Czech Koruna Faces Pressure Amid US Inflation Surprise

Money Matters: Times When a Loan Becomes Your Best Ally

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 06.12.2023 10:54
In the intricate tapestry of personal finance, there are moments when securing a loan becomes not just a financial transaction but a strategic move. While the idea of borrowing money may raise eyebrows for some, there are situations where a loan can be your best ally, offering a lifeline during challenging times. Let's delve into these scenarios and explore the ways loans can be a prudent financial choice. 1. Emergency Expenses and the Need for Quick Funds The course of life is uncertain, and unforeseen emergencies are expected. Whether facing an abrupt medical bill, a car breakdown, or home repairs, the urgency for immediate funds becomes paramount. In such cases, loans in minutes take center stage. Modern lending platforms and financial institutions have streamlined processes, allowing individuals to secure loans swiftly. This can make a significant difference in addressing urgent financial needs. 2. Capitalizing on Investment Opportunities In the realm of investments, timing is often key to success. There are instances when a promising investment opportunity arises, but the window for capitalizing on it is limited. In these situations, obtaining a loan to seize the moment can be a strategic move. Whether it's a real estate deal, a business venture, or a stock market opportunity, having access to quick financing can open doors that might otherwise remain closed. 3. Consolidating High-Interest Debt Managing multiple debts with varying interest rates can be challenging and financially draining. If you find yourself juggling credit card bills, personal loans, and other high-interest debts, consolidating them into a single, lower-interest loan can provide relief. This can simplify your financial obligations and reduce the overall interest burden, making it easier to regain control of your financial situation. 4. Bridging the Income Gap During Unemployment Unforeseen circumstances, such as job loss or career transitions, can lead to temporary income gaps. During these challenging periods, a well-considered loan can act as a bridge, helping you cover essential expenses until you secure a new source of income. It serves as a short-term solution to prevent financial strain and maintain stability during times of uncertainty. 5. Pursuing Educational Aspirations Investing in education is an investment in oneself. Whether you're considering further studies, professional certifications, or skill development courses, the cost of education can be a barrier. Taking out a loan to fund your educational aspirations can be wise, especially if it enhances your skills, opens new career opportunities, or increases your earning potential in the long run. 6. Home Renovation Projects Owning a home comes with the need for periodic maintenance and renovations. These projects enhance the quality of living and contribute to the property's value. When you’re low on cash, securing a loan for home renovations can be a strategic choice, as it allows you to make improvements that will pay off in the long term, both in terms of comfort and potential resale value. In conclusion, while the idea of loans may be associated with caution, there are circumstances where they become invaluable tools for navigating life's financial challenges. Whether it's responding to emergencies, seizing investment opportunities, or pursuing personal development, a well-managed loan can be a reliable ally. Remember, the key lies in thoughtful consideration, responsible borrowing, and aligning your financial decisions with your long-term goals. 
Advancing Sustainability: Key Measures in the EPBD Recast for Green Building Transformation

Elektrotim Q2'23 Earnings Report: Positive Surprises and Ongoing Challenges

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 11.10.2023 14:33
The Q2'23 period was another quarter of positive earnings surprise from Elektrotim. The earnings conference also highlighted the positive outlook for the next quarters, which implies a seasonal improvement in 2H and an increase in y/y results in 2023.   Sentiment towards the company was spoiled by the filing of Zeus' bankruptcy petition. At the same time, we note that the value of this entity was already written down to zero after Q2'23, and Elektrotim's current financial exposure is limited to ca. PLN 3-4m. The peri-election period translates into low decision-making in awarding new public tenders, but the company's portfolio already fills a large portion of its 2024 revenue forecast.   On the positive side, we note the BG's announcement in September of tenders for perimetry on border rivers with Belarus. Following the 1H'23 results, we are upgrading our modelled earnings forecasts (our previous EBITDA forecast was 57% executed after 1H'23, and management believes the next quarters should be better due to seasonality). We set our current target price at PLN 17.1, which implies reiterating a Buy rating. Elektrotim's Q2'23 results sustained the company's year-long positive earnings trend. In Q2'23, Elektrotim posted revenue of PLN 128m and net profit of PLN 11.2m, which is the best Q2 in the company's history. At the same time, at the end of Q2'23, the company recorded (as expected) a marked deterioration in its cash position (a significant increase in demand for working capital; we expect the situation to gradually improve in H2'23).   After Q2'23, the Group's backlog amounted to PLN 626m, about half of which, in our view, is still to be executed in 2023. Management's goal after 1H'23 is to at least maintain margins. Seasonally, we note that 2H is usually stronger than the beginning of the year; management believes there is no indication that the traditional seasonality will not be maintained this year. We currently assume the company will generate PLN 535m in revenue, PLN 50.5m in EBIT and PLN 37.7m in net profit in 2023. We take a more conservative approach to 2024 (the company is mainly pursuing contracts with deadlines <18m, the competitive environment for 2023 tenders is more challenging, and the situation on the cost side may turn around if EU funds are unblocked)
The AI Impact: Markets and the Inflation Surprise - 12.09.2023

From Burning Man to Wall Street: A Week of Unpredictable Twists and Turns

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 05.09.2023 13:26
In a world where the unpredictable often takes center stage, last week provided no exception. From the surreal landscapes of the Burning Man festival to the bustling stock markets, events unfolded that left people both exhilarated and perplexed. This rollercoaster ride of a week saw stranded festival-goers, restless investors, and soaring airline rankings, all while diamond prices took a dramatic plunge and another Binance executive bid farewell. Let's embark on a journey through the past week's fascinating headlines. Burning Man's Mud-Filled Exodus Thousands of adventurous souls set out for the annual Burning Man festival, eager to immerse themselves in a unique blend of art, music, and self-expression in the arid Nevada desert. However, nature had other plans. A fierce storm swept through the festival grounds, transforming the desert into a mucky quagmire. Festival-goers found themselves stranded in a surreal landscape, battling the elements in a quest to return to civilization. As the desert turned to mud, it was a stark reminder that even the most carefully planned adventures can take an unexpected turn.   Wall Street's Unease Meanwhile, on the bustling streets of Wall Street, investors were grappling with their own set of uncertainties. After a summer rally that saw markets surging to new heights, the fall season brought with it a sense of unease. The latest US jobs report became a focal point, with investors closely analyzing the data for clues about the economy's direction. The Dow led the indices with a 0.33% gain, showcasing its resilience amidst the fluctuations. Asian markets also experienced surges, particularly Hong Kong's HSI, proving that the global financial landscape remains as unpredictable as ever.   Delta's Soaring Success Amidst the turbulence, there was a beacon of success for Delta Airlines. The airline secured its place as the No. 1 domestic carrier in several categories, including on-time arrivals, service quality, and passenger comfort. In an industry often fraught with challenges, Delta's achievement serves as a testament to its dedication to passenger satisfaction and operational excellence.   Xi's G20 Summit Decision On the global stage, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a surprising decision. He opted to skip the upcoming G20 summit in India, instead sending Premier Li Keqiang as the country's representative. This move raised questions and sparked discussions about China's diplomatic strategy and priorities. As the world watches, it's clear that even international politics is not immune to unexpected twists.   Diamonds Lose Their Sparkle In the realm of luxury and glamour, there was a stark contrast as diamond prices experienced a significant and unexpected decline. While diamonds have long been a symbol of wealth and beauty, one key segment of the market saw prices plummet. This shift left industry experts and enthusiasts pondering the reasons behind this sudden change and its potential repercussions.   A Farewell at Binance To add to the week's intrigue, another executive bid farewell to the cryptocurrency exchange giant Binance. This departure is part of a larger trend of key figures leaving the company. Such transitions in the world of cryptocurrency can have far-reaching implications, leaving stakeholders and enthusiasts wondering about the future direction of the industry. In a world filled with surprises, last week's events served as a compelling reminder of the unpredictable nature of life, whether one is reveling in the desert at Burning Man, navigating the turbulent waters of financial markets, or witnessing shifts in global politics and industry dynamics. As we move forward, one thing remains clear: the only constant is change, and embracing the unexpected is the key to navigating the twists and turns that lie ahead.    
National Bank of Hungary's Shift: Moving Away from Autopilot Monetary Policy

Hidden Gems: Exploring Promising Stocks - Etsy, Tapestry Inc, Garmin Ltd, and More

Maxim Manturov Maxim Manturov 29.06.2023 14:09
Stocks worth taking a closer look at are fewer known companies such as Etsy (ETSY), Tapestry, Inc (TPR) and Garmin Ltd (GRMN).   For example, Etsy operates the top 10 e-commerce market operators in the US and UK, with significant operations in Germany, France, Australia and Canada. The company dominates the exchange of vintage and artisanal goods. In 2022, the consolidated gross merchandise volume exceeded $13 billion. And at the end of last year, the firm connected more than 95 million buyers and 7.5 million sellers on its sites. The fundamental potential for an average target price is $115.   Meanwhile, Tapestry, Inc owns clothing and accessories brands such as Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman. TPR has a strong brand, category, and channel mix at an attractive price. The stock is strongly undervalued and the fundamental potential for an average target price stands at $50.70.   Garmin Ltd. is a manufacturer of wireless devices. The company is particularly renowned for its wide range of products, including portable GPS devices for cars, aviation, marine and outdoor activities, as well as fitness trackers, smart watches and cycling computers. Four of GRMN's five segments showed double-digit revenue growth. For example, in the first quarter, revenues from the fitness segment grew by 11%, from the aviation segment by 22%, from the marine segment by 10% and from the automotive OEM segment by 11%. And the company's net profit is 19.94% of revenue. The stock is moving in a medium-term upward channel, testing resistance in the form of a local high, in case of a breakdown it could move to $119.50.   As for the IPOs, Freedom Finance Analysts expect two US companies to go public by the end of 2023: Fogo Hospitality and Turo Inc. The former is a chain of Brazilian steakhouses in the US called Fogo de Chao. In total, it has more than 75 locations, of which 67 are company-owned and eight franchisees. On average, 151,000 people visit one Fogo Hospitality restaurant a year.    Turo is a platform that connects car owners with renters. The platform offers registered car rental trips for hours, days or weeks. As of 31 March 2023, it had more than 165,000 active hosts, more than 330,000 cars and 3.1 million active guests.   Disclaimer: Capital is at risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Presented material is not meant to represent "Investment advice" or provide "Investment research" services. It is important to do your own analysis before making any investment in the stock market.   
Stocks to keep an eye on in the second half of 2023

Stocks to keep an eye on in the second half of 2023

Maxim Manturov Maxim Manturov 29.06.2023 14:08
Analysts at Freedom Finance Europe have highlighted several companies that investors should look out for in the second half of this year. One of them is Amazon (AMZN), which continues to grow revenues in key segments. "The company has too many positive catalysts to ignore, and the recent weakness provides an opportunity to enter into an attractive asset", says the speaker. In addition, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, AMZN's revenues in the latest quarter exceeded the forecast range to $127.4 billion and operating profit was $4.8 billion. These results are due to growth in e-commerce. North American region, for example, saw double-digit sales increases and a return to profitability, while the international segment also saw strong growth. On top of that, company's cloud business revenues, Amazon Web Services were up 16% year-on-year.  "Management forecasts sales growth of 10%, to $133 billion in the next quarter, with operating profit expected to remain stable, at between $2 billion and $5.5 billion. These results and forecasts look quite compelling. The company has also built an unrivalled logistics network for parcel delivery, sometimes with same-day delivery", said the speaker. These factors take Amazon’s potential to a maximum target price of $220.  Next up is the well-known coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX). As the speaker explained, the company is considered an attractive and long-term investment due to its commitment to shareholder value, revenue growth and higher earnings per stock. SBUX had a solid quarter. In Q2 2023, Starbucks had revenue of $8.7 billion, up 14% year-on-year. EPS increased by 36% compared to the same period in 2022. Even more impressively, Starbucks quarterly sales and EPS were 38% and 49% higher than the same period in 2019 (before the pandemic). The company also has a rewards programme that rewards customers for repeat purchases. For example, there are currently 30.8 million active loyalty programme members in the US. That's an increase of 15% over last year.   "Coffee is an integral part of society and it is hard to imagine a scenario where Starbucks ever disappears. The company has almost 37,000 shops and the goal is to have 55,000 outlets worldwide by 2030", the speaker added. The fundamental potential for an average target price is at $114. Another company that may be worth taking a closer look at is Booking Holdings (BKNG), which operates in the online travel industry. In particular, it offers services through its Booking.com, KAYAK, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com and OpenTable brands. Data from the Economist Intelligence Unit shows that the segment is expected to grow by 30% in 2023 as the number of Chinese tourists abroad may increase. "In previous years, the 'zero COVID' policy has held back tourism from China, which has recently been a major source of growth. As the situation changes this year, Booking Holdings could benefit from this. In addition, the number of trips remains below 2019 levels, which leaves room for growth and continues a solid recovery", explained the speaker. BKNG's revenue increased by $4 billion in the last quarter, and it continues to benefit from a network advantage that has allowed it to maintain its agency model rather than move to a vendor model where the online travel agency would be responsible for paying the fees. Fundamental potential for an average target price of $2800.  
Analysis of Q2'23 Results: Revenue Decline and Gross Margin Improvement

ATM Grupa's Core Business Remains Solid Despite Temporary Weakness in Premium Content Pipeline

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 29.06.2023 11:24
Core business remains solid. We remain fundamentally positive on ATM Grupa, as we still consider it as a relatively cheap and decent long-term premium content exposure. Despite the hopefully temporary weakness of the premium content pipeline (which offers no major direct triggers for the core business over the short term), we expect the core business to deliver 7% adj. EBITDA CAGR over 2023E-2025E.     We anticipate another strong contribution from the real estate segment only in 2026E with another tranche recognised within Swedish project (till then the project should consume additional working capital). We could see an improvement in cash generation in the years ahead after some changes in approach to real estate or the potential disposal of the Boombit stake. We assume a dividend of PLN 0.30ps (DY of 8.5%) in 2023E, which includes a PLN 0.12ps advance payment in late 2023E versus PLN 0.08ps paid in 2022.   Overall, we forecast revenues at PLN 250m/265m (-17%/+6% y/y) in 2023E/2024E (excluding the real-estate segment we forecast the 2023E/2024E adj. core business top-line dynamic at +7%/ +5% y/y) and net profit at PLN 35m/36m (-20%/+4% y/y), down from our previous assumption of PLN 37m/44m (mainly due to lower number of premium projects to be recognised in 2023E/2024E than we assumed earlier). We maintain our BUY recommendation but decrease our FV to PLN 4.30ps (implying 23% upside) from PLN 4.50ps.       On our forecasts, ATM Grupa trades at a P/E of 8.4x/8.1x for 2023E/2024E. Small cut in 2023E/2024E premium pipeline. We perceive the management’s comments on the outlook for the premium content pipeline in 2023E/2024E, or the reluctance to develop on its own book new movie projects (or TV series) as a bit uninspiring. With no new major announcements and focus on documentary TV series projects or artistic movies we see a risk that the premium part of the business may not live up to its potential.   Overall we have reduced the number of premium TV series to be produced from 1.3x/2.0x to 1.0x/1.5x in 2023E/2024E respectively. As the demand for Polish content from OTT platforms remains solid, we consider it as more temporary issue rather than structural problem. We do not exclude that with the improvement of attractiveness of ATM Grupa’s developed projects the number of produced premium projects may increase.       Boombit’s never-ending strategic options review process. In our view, with each passing month, the likelihood of concluding the potential disposal of stake in Boombit (4.0m shares, 29.54% of Boombit’s equity) is becoming lower, especially, as the strategic review process has started back in November 2021.   Given company’s cash position, and apparent reluctance to take risks within premium content area, it seems there is no immediate need for the company to convert Boombit’s stake into cash. However, in our view company’s minority shareholders would welcome one-off extraordinary distribution from the potential Boombit’s disposal, rather than maintaining the current level of Boombit’s contributions to the company’s bottom line and dividend inflows.
Analysis of Q2'23 Results: Revenue Decline and Gross Margin Improvement

Molecure valuation update: HOLD recommendation, Phase I trials progress, funding concerns, share issue scenario

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 29.06.2023 10:59
In this report, we update our valuation for Molecure. Our new FV is PLN 23.2ps, implying 8% upside vs. the current price. We maintain a HOLD recommendation. Molecure's OATD-02 immuno-oncology program successfully entered phase I clinical trials in early 2023, and we expect initial safety and efficacy data at higher doses in 4Q23. The company's lead program, OATD-01, appears on track to enter the phase II clinical trial in sarcoidosis later this year. After Molecure to filed an application with the FDA to start this program, we expect approval in 3Q23 and first dosing in 4Q23.   We believe the monetization of both assets is a key story for Molecure in 2024-25E, but first the company has yet to secure funding for development beyond 1Q24. In our opinion, the stock issue scenario is the most likely; recently the annual general meeting authorized the management to issue up to 2.8m new shares. Despite the positive development of the clinical program, we expect the share price to remain under pressure due to this upcoming potential share offering.     OATD-01 to start phase II trial in sarcoidosis in 2023E. Molecure submitted IND motion to the US regulator FDA to start phase II of OATD-01 in sarcoidosis. Molecure targets starting a phase II study in patients in the US and the European Union in 4Q23, while the results will be available in 1H25. As the start of phase II clinical trials is approaching, we removed part of the discount on the success rate due to the uncertainty surrounding Galapagos’ termination. We value OATD-01 at PLN 8.7ps, while with no discount it would be valued at PLN 16.5ps. OATD-02 started clinical trials, first partial results in 4Q23. In March, Molecure dosed the first patient in phase I clinical trials of OATD-02.     The company plans 5- 6 cohorts in a dose escalation study with 30-40 patients recruited in three Polish centers with advanced or metastatic solid tumors. Molecure says it will present data regularly after each cohort. We believe data from higher doses will be critical as it could show initial efficacy and safety data that could be a catalyst for a potential partnering on this program, which we think could take place in 2024E. We value the OATD-02 program at PLN 14.5ps. AGM authorized new share issue.   Molecure AGM authorized management to issue up to 2.8m new shares (20% dilution) implying an SPO value of up to PLN 60-65m. The company has cash secured until 1Q24. We believe that a new share issue is the most probable source of financing the development of OATD-01 and OATD-02; in our view it may take place in 3/4Q23.     We believe that a potential decision of the main shareholder to participate in the share issue would be a supportive factor for the equity story. Recommendation and valuation. We reiterate our HOLD rating for Molecure with a new FV set at PLN 23.2, implying 8% upside vs. the current price.  

Big Tech Companies with Their Stocks - Examples:

         
  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Adobe (ADBE)
  • Alphabet (GOOGL)
  • Metaverse (FB)
         
  • SONY (SONY)

In time of changes, some investors wonder if it's the time to invest in Metaverse.

Known medical Stocks:

Moderna (MRNA)

Known sport stocks:

Nike (NKE), Peloton (PTON)

Popular brands and their stocks:

McDonald's (MCD), Starbucks (SBUX), Coca Cola (KO), HP (HPQ), nVidia (NVDA), Pinterest (PINS)

Popular indices: 

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XETR:DAX/
    •  UK 100 (FTSE 100) Price Chart:
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/UKXGBP/

Some of investors might be interested in Emini Dow Jones and Emini S&P 500.

Ones to watch, role models: Warren Buffet, Jeffrey Bezos, Elon Musk, Bill Gates.

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