Taxes, UK Equities, Global Shipping and Pandemic in "Charts of 2021: Honorable Mentions" by Callum Thomas

A Look At Markets Around The World: US CPI, Sweden Riksbank EU Yields And More

Last week I shared with you some of my Best Charts of 2021 (as well as my Worst Charts of 2021 and then also my favorites!) -- so this week I wanted to follow up with what I would say are the "honorable mention" charts of 2021...

 
 
 

These charts were worthy of mention but didn’t quite fit into any of the previous categories -- but were definitely worth including and highlighting both due to how they proved useful in the past year or so, but also in terms of the outlook into 2022.

 
 
 

These charts were featured in my just-released 2021 End of Year Special Report -- check it out (free download as a holiday treat!).

 
 
 

Enjoy, feel free to share, and be sure to let me know what you think in the comments...

 
 
 
 
 

1. Expect Higher Taxes: This chart arguably points to higher tax rates ahead given that government debt as a % of GDP has doubled over the past decade while effectively economy-wide tax-take has gone sideways.

 
 
 
chart of developed economy fiscal outlook - higher taxes forecast
 
 
 
 
 

2. Global Food Crisis? Stagnant capex by food producers contributed to a perfect storm for food prices (along with actual storms, pandemic disruption, rising costs).

 
chart of agri food prices and food producer capex - global food price crisis
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

3. UK Equities: In the wake of Brexit & pandemic woes, UK equities moved to decade-low valuations vs their European peers. From crisis to opportunity?

 
chart showing UK vs European equity valuations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

>>> These charts were featured in our 2021 End of Year Special Report.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

4. Global Shipping Capex: Shipping sector investment stagnated for a decade – contributing to the global supply chain chaos. Ironically it likely rebounds after banking windfall profits from the surge in freight rates.

 
chart of global shipping costs vs shipping sector capex investment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

5. Global vs US Earnings Cycles: A key driver of the long-term cycles of relative price performance of global vs US equities has been the cycles in relative earnings. That cycle will need to change for the price cycle to change.

 
graph of global equity earnings cycles
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

6. Pandemic Progress: the global rollout of vaccines, rising immunity, societal adaptations, and therapeutics have helped result in a series of lower highs in deaths – I like the look of that trend. The light at the end of the tunnel, though flickering at times, does seem a little brighter now…

 
chart of covid cases vs deaths vs vaccination rates
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Thanks for reading!

 
 
 
 
 

This is an excerpt from my 2021 End of Year Special report - click through to download a free copy of the report.

 
 
 

Best regards

 
 
 

Callum Thomas

 

Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts

 
 
 

 

 

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A Look At Markets Around The World: US CPI, Sweden Riksbank EU Yields And More

Callum Thomas

Head of Research

Callum is the founder and managing shareholder of Topdown Charts. His career background is in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia, with a focus on investment strategy and economics.  

Callum has a passion for global economics and asset allocation strategy and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes.  Callum's approach is to deploy a blend of factors to build out a holistic picture and raise conviction. This includes valuations, monetary conditions, cyclical indicators, sentiment, and technicals.  Callum believes innovation is vital to maintaining an edge through investment research and is on a constant mission to uncover and develop new datasets, indicators, and new ways of looking at the world to drive sensible and profitable decision making by portfolio managers.

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas