More Chop Before NFPs, Or Not?
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Again, today's report will be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
Tuesday‘s intraday reversal looks to mark the meek bearish push I talked about on Monday – I‘m looking for the bulls to be today on the initiative. Today, that‘s a key word here, especially given the (a bit too one-way extended but still) risk-off credit markets, and tomorrows non-farm payrolls of course.
Credit Markets
- The plunge in high yield corporate bonds is going a bit too far in my view – and unless the 500-strong index joins, I don‘t see HYG as leading to the downside to usher in a sizable correction. HYG deceleration followed by stabilization and upswing would be the best the stock bulls can hope for.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Miners‘ strong showing was relegated to history yesterday, but we haven‘t seen a reversal to the downside – upswing rejection is all that happened. Silver weakness had more to do with yesterday‘s commodity (namely copper and oil) woes than anything else.
Crude Oil
The oil downside wasn‘t indeed over, and resulted in fresh oil short profits yesterday, taking my portfolio results to new highs. The rising volume shows that we‘re potentially approaching a reversal, but so far there isn‘t any proof thereof.
Natural Gas
Steady uptrend in the other key energy asset, natural gas. The break above the prior sideways to slightly lower flag / triangle approximating structure, happened on higher volume, and is thus more credible. Good that the fundamentals support the upcoming appreciation higher, too.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Yesterday‘s crypto gains haven‘t been entirely defended, but it would be premature to talk about downside reversal. Consolidation playing out with Ethereum‘s continued outperformance of Bitcoin, is the kind of surefire conclusion here.
Summary
In place of summary today, please see the above chart descriptions for my take.
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