Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term

Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term

The market is struggling with further downward pressure, triggered by a stronger US dollar, and threats that the US and others will start using their strategic oil reserves.

Trade Plan Review

Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Saturday (Nov 20th) that his government was considering drawing on oil reserves in response to rising crude prices. Since Japan sources most of its oil from the Middle East, the recent surge in prices and the decline of the yen have pushed up import cost for the Japanese archipelago.

As a reminder, last week I anticipated a lower dip that would take place onto the $75.25-76.22 yellow band. The recommended objective would be the $79.37 and 82.24 levels. My suggested stop would be located on the $74.42 level (below both the previous swing low from 7-October and the previous high-volume node and volume point of control (VPOC) from September).

Alternatively, you could also eventually use an Average True Range (ATR) ratio to determine a different level that may suit you better. For now, that dip did happen Friday around that support area (likely to become a demand zone) where we might see some ongoing accumulation for the forthcoming hours. Now, we can observe a doji formation (candlestick figure), and more precisely a long-legged doji appearing on the daily chart, which is generally synonymous with indecision.

Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term - 1

WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart)

To visualize how the price action is currently developing, let’s zoom into the 4H chart, which illustrates a much clearer downtrend:

Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term - 2
WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart)

So, as you can see, even on that lower timeframe we have a doji pattern, where the bulls are trying to take over the bears to push the market towards higher levels. Will the current 4H downtrend extend lower, or will the longer-term (daily) uptrend resume its rally? Let’s see where this is going to end up.

Here is the latest chart from today (Nov 24th):

Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term - 3

Figure 1 - WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, monthly chart)

By the way, my trade target for WTI Crude Oil positions has almost been reached. Please check out more details on my latest oil targets in Monday’s article.

That’s all for today, folks. Happy trading!

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Thank you.

Sebastien Bischeri
Oil & Gas Trading Strategist

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The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Sebastian Bischeri

Sebastien Bischeri is a former Reserve Officer in the French Armed Forces (Navy), and began his career in computer science and engineering, prior to move into banking, finance, and trading. He has worked as a contractor with top banks, firms, government departments, MNCs, SMEs and start-ups over the past decade, where he’s gained extensive knowledge of commodities, economic intelligence, energy, financial markets, investments, risks, and strategy (both as a Trader and Analyst). In parallel, Mr. Bischeri never stopped learning: he holds an MSc in Oil & Gas Finance and Energy Economics from Dundee, Scotland, and a European Masters in Economic Intelligence (EI) from Versailles, France.