Bloomberg's forecast for the month of May said gold will outperform other commodities this year, including silver, platinum, and palladium. This is due to rising recession risks in the US. Most likely, the yellow metal will accelerate its rally during the latter half of the year, increasing the gold-to-silver ratio, which is currently around 80. In March 2020, the ratio peaked at about 124. Gold has always outpaced silver since 1717, when Isaac Newton, as the Master of the Royal Mint, adopted the gold standard. Therefore, it is not surprising that as the US enters a recession, the ratio approaches the historical high, with 80 acting as the lower limit. Of course, silver will have a chance to catch up at the end of the recession, when the electrification trends take effect. Gold also outperforms platinum and palladium during a recession. For the latter, the ratio usually hits its highest level whenever there is financial crisis. The forecast said the situation for both metals will be similar to that of 2008-2009. Relatively high palladium prices compared to platinum may make palladium the prime contender for the top spot in the event of an economic crisis. Read next: Ralph Shedler comments on Euro against US dollar. What's the forecast for EUR/USD?| FXMAG.COM Gold indicators have been encouraging over the past 12 months, showing an increase of around 9%. And in comparison to commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index for the same period has decreased by approximately 24%. The report also said that as the Federal Reserve is grappling with the consequences of its most aggressive tightening in recent decades, the forecast for gold remains bullish. Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/342872

The latest gold survey shows that bearish sentiment has a slight advantage among Wall Street analysts. Retail investors, on the other hand, maintain significant optimism. The mixed sentiment has arisen due to the fact that the gold market ended last week above $2,000 per ounce but dropped significantly from its test of historical highs. Analysts believe that the market continues to respond to fluctuating interest rate expectations. After raising interest rates by 25 basis points, the Fed shifted its monetary policy to a more neutral position, and the markets began to consider the possibility of a rate cut in July. Ahead of the weekend, good employment data was released, with 253,000 jobs created and wages increasing by 5%. Gold prices fell, dropping more than 2% for the day. Wage growth indicates increased inflation, which will force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy. In the near future, gold may face difficulties, as it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates during the summer. However, for investors looking to build a long-term position, such volatility creates favorable entry conditions. Last Friday, 22 Wall Street analysts participated in a gold survey Last Friday, 22 Wall Street analysts participated in a gold survey. Among the participants, seven, or 32%, were optimistic about the near-term outlook. At the same time, nine analysts, or 41%, predicted bearish sentiment, and six, or 27%, believed that prices would trade within a sideways range. Read next: Australian dollar against US dollar - upcoming inflation releases to be important| FXMAG.COM In online polls, 774 votes were cast. Of these, 500 respondents, or 65%, expect gold prices to rise. Another 163 voters, or 21%, stated that the price would drop, and 111 participants, or 14%, expressed neutral opinions. Retail investors also expect a confident recovery in gold prices, predicting that prices will be around $2,060 by the end of the week. According to some analysts, despite Friday's sell-off, since prices held the $2,000 per ounce level, such a price may attract investors this week. Moreover, the longer the debate over debt limits continues, the faster the U.S. approaches a government default. Such uncertainty will continue to support gold prices, as it did in 2011. Relevance up to 12:00 2023-05-13 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/342490

Gold is trading near an all-time high amid a decline in US bond yields and the dollar following indications from the US Federal Reserve that it might pause its rate hiking cycle. And the precious metal's momentum remains to the upside Source: Shutterstock Gold hits one-year high Source: Refinitiv Eikon, ING Research Banking crisis fuels gold ETF inflows Gold touched $2,062.99/oz on 4 May, the highest intraday level since March 2022, as renewed concerns about the US banking sector fuelled bets that the Fed may have to cut rates sooner than anticipated. The precious metal is nearing its all-time high of $2,075.47/oz made in August 2020 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gold has rallied from around $1,630/oz in early November to above $2,000/oz with investors betting the Fed is moving closer to ending its rate hiking cycle. The recent rally in gold prices began towards the end of the first quarter following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Nervousness over the banking system, along with the weakening of the US dollar and falling Treasury yields have seen the precious metal rally more than 10% since early March. Concerns over the US banking crisis fuelled gold ETF inflows in March. Global gold ETFs, led by European funds, saw US$1.9bn (+32t, +0.9%) of net inflows in March, putting a stop to a nine-month losing streak, data from the World Gold Council showed. Overall, global gold ETF total assets under management (AUM) rose by 10%, aided by both inflows and the gold price appreciation, to US$220bn by the end of March. Gold holdings increased by 32 tonnes to 3,444 tonnes. And that positive trend has continued into April. However, March inflows were not enough to reverse negative flows in January and February, resulting in a net outflow of US$1.5bn during the first quarter of 2023. Looking forward, we believe financial stability concerns following the failure of some large US regional banks and fading interest rate headwinds will provide a positive tailwind for gold demand. Read next: Monitoring Turkey: Focus on elections| FXMAG.COM Net long positioning strengthens Net long positioning has remained in positive territory so far in 2023, reflecting healthy appetite for gold. Speculators had already increased their positioning towards the back end of last year and the start of this year - on the expectation that the Fed is not too far from the peak Fed funds rate. March saw a sizable rebound in COMEX gold futures’ net longs, as the gold price showed strength. Total net longs amounted to 622 tonnes by the end of the month, surpassing the 2022 average of 527 tonnes. Speculators boost gold longs Source: CFTC, WGC, ING Research Central banks continue to boost gold reserves Gold purchases by central banks maintained momentum in the first quarter. Central bank demand hit 228 tonnes in 1Q, 34% higher than the previous 1Q record set in 2013, according to a report from the World Gold Council. This follows the record annual demand of 1,078 tonnes in 2022. Last year, central banks bought almost 1,136 tonnes of gold. Turkey and China were the largest known buyers, adding 148 tonnes and 62 tonnes, respectively. Although the 1Q figure this year was lower than the figures seen in the previous two quarters and down 40% from the preceding three months, this is the strongest first quarter on record, with buying reported by both emerging and developed market banks. Four central banks accounted for the majority of reported purchasing during 1Q: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was the largest single buyer during the quarter, adding 69 tonnes, the first increase in its gold reserves since June 2021. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was the second largest buyer during the quarter, adding 58 tonnes to its gold reserves. Turkey was again a big buyer of gold during the quarter - official reserves rose by 30 tonnes. We expect central banks to remain buyers, not only due to geopolitical tensions but also due to the economic climate.  Central bank buying remains at high level Source: WGC, ING Research Fed's rate path crucial to gold trajectory Fed policy will be key for gold over the medium term. The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp this week and signalled the threshold for justifying future rate increases is now higher than it was. With lending conditions rapidly tightening in the wake of recent bank stresses, our US economist thinks this will mark the peak for interest rates with recessionary forces set to prompt interest rate cuts later this year. The market is currently pricing the potential for rate cuts as soon as September, but our US economist James Knightley doubts that the Fed will respond quite as quickly given inflation is still likely to be around 4% by that point, double the 2% target rate. James thinks the Fed will wait until the fourth quarter, but will end up cutting interest rates more aggressively, at least in the early stages, forecasting 50bp rate cuts at both the November and December FOMC meetings with the Fed funds rate getting down to 3% by mid-2024. We would expect real yields to follow policy rates lower later in the year, which should prove supportive for gold prices. We see prices moving higher over the second half of next year, given that the Fed should start cutting rates towards the end of this year. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Green lines- bearish RSI divergence Blue rectangle- support Yellow rectangles- major tops with same overbought RSI conditions Silver made a new 2023 higher high yesterday. The RSI is not following. The RSI is giving bearish RSI divergence signals. This is an important warning. The last time RSI of Silver price was this overbought and turned lower, we were forming a major top back in 2022 and price decline from $26.90 to $18. Silver is under pressure today showing rejection signs when price tried to break to new highs. Silver trend remains bullish as long as price is above the blue rectangle support area at $24.50. A break below this level will confirm a top is in and that trend is reversing to bearish. Bulls need to be very cautious. Read next: According to InstaForex's analyst, Euro against US dollar is vulnerable to a move towards 1.08| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 15:00 2023-05-06 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322401

Conflicting macro news flow has capped gold in a short-term range-bound movement. 1-year rolling uptrend of gold versus most major fiat currencies remains intact. Lower 10-year US Treasury real yield may provide an impetus for gold bulls. The recent movement in the price of gold has started to falter from its recent 52-week high of US$2,048 per ounce reached on 13 April 2023. So far, it has staged a pull-back of -3.8% to hit a recent low of US$1,969 and faced a bit of a struggle to trade above $2,010 which is also around its 20-day moving average. There are a couple of reasons to explain the recent bout of short-term lackluster range-bound movement. Firstly, the current pull-back in gold from its US$2,048 recent high has taken shape right below the prior significant all-time high peaks of US$2,075 (7 Aug 2020) and US$2,070 (8 Mar 2022) which translates to lingering fear in the mindset of market participants that a failed third attempt to break above its prior significant peaks may lead to a potential major downside reversal for gold. Secondly, conflicting macro news flow; the positive narratives that support bullish bias on gold such as heightened geopolitical risks that arise from the economic realm (US-China High Tech War, ramped-up discussions on de-dollarization and deglobalization) and ongoing territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine plus more recent frequent “outbursts exchanges” between US and China officials on the status of Taiwan’s sovereignty. On the flip side, the negative narrative will be a switch of demand from safe-haven assets such as gold to risk-on assets when the dovish Fed pivot materializes to kickstart a fresh interest rate cut cycle as soon as July based on expectations from interest rates futures. Aside from these conflicting factors, other insightful elements are worth highlighting that may impact the prices of gold in the short to medium term. Gold has continued to trend higher against most fiat currencies & XAU/USD plays a catch-up Fig 1:  Gold vs. fiat currencies 1-year rolling performances as of 27 Apr 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The performance of gold against other currencies such as JPY, AUD, CAD, NZD, and SEK) has led other XAU pairs and trended higher since the end of September 2022. Interestingly, one of the laggards, gold against USD (XAU/USD) has started to play catch-up since early March 2023 and recorded a rolling 1-year gain of +4.90% as of 27 April 2023. Read next: Dow and S&P 500 decreased yesterday. Nasdaq benefited from Microsoft earnings| FXMAG.COM If one has a staunch belief in the principle of “trend-following”, follow the major trend as they will advocate. A further fall in US 10-year Treasury real yield may have a positive impact on gold Fig 2:  Correlation between Gold & US 10-YR Treasury real yield as of 27 Apr 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Gold is a zero-yield asset as it does not generate recurring streams of cash inflows such as dividends and coupon payments from investing in equities and bonds respectively. Hence, if one establishes a long position in gold and held for some time, there will be opportunity costs incurred such as interest income forgone on coupon payments if invested in bonds. Hence, a higher bond yield translates to a higher opportunity cost for holding gold. Based on a general correlation analysis since 2007 on the movement of a longer-term 10-year US Treasury real yield (excluding inflation effects) derived from the market price of the 10-year US Treasury inflation-protected securities with the price of spot gold (US$ per ounce), it has shown that prior significant up moves in gold have coincided with declines in the 10-year US Treasury real yield and vice versa when the real yield rallied. Since Oct 2022, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has continued to inch lower and traced out a series of “lower highs” which in turn may support a further potential up move in gold. Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – major uptrend intact, eyeing a retest at 2,075 all-time high Fig 3: Gold (XAU/USD) trend as of 27 Apr 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The recent -3.9% pull-back in gold (XAU/USD) from its 13 April 2023 high of 2,048 has managed to stall at the median line of the major ascending channel in place since the 3 November 2022 low. The 4-hour RSI oscillator has just managed to stage a bullish breakout from its former corresponding descending resistance at the 55% level and has yet to reach its overbought region of above 70% which suggests a potential revival of short to medium-term upside momentum. If the 1,955 key medium-term pivotal support holds and a break above the 2,012 intermediate resistance, XAU/USD may see a retest on its current all-time level of 2,075 printed on 7 August 2020. A clearance above 2,075 sees the next resistance coming in at 2,120 (upper boundary of the ascending channel & a key Fibonacci expansion level). However, a break with a 4-hour close below 1,955 negates the bullish tone to expose the next support at 1,890 (100-day moving average & the lower boundary of the ascending channel). Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. Gold has not lost its glitter - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Technical analysis: Gold has been trading upside yesterday and I found that market is making higher lows and there is potential for the upside continuation today. Due to the strong upside cycle in the background and the breakout of the inside day formation yesterday, I see potential for the further rally. Upside objectives are set at the price of $2.011 and $2.045 MACD oscillator is showing upside reading and increase in momentum, which is good sign for the further higher prices. Support is set at the price of $1.976 Read next: More declines of Bitcoin to US dollar should force the altcoins to drop as well| FXMAG.COM Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321189 Relevance up to 08:00 2023-04-27 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.

Gold rebounds despite a stronger US Dollar. Falling US Treasury yields are helping the yellow metal. XAU/USD remains under the 20-day SMA, keeps avoiding daily close under $1.980. Gold price rebounded sharply during the last hour, rising more than $10. XAU/USD bottomed at $1,975 and then jumped to $1,994. As of writing, it trades at $1,987 marginally lower for the day, on a volatile session. Despite the big swings, price remains in a recent familiar range. Gold price rebound is losing momentum as the US Dollar prints fresh daily highs across the board. The DXY is up by 0.35%, trading at 101.70. At the same time, US Treasury yields are falling again. The US 10-year yields stands at 3.43% and the 2-year at 4.03%, both at two-week lows. The combination of a stronger US Dollar and lower Treasury yields is favoring large swings in XAU/USD. Incoming economic data from the US, particularly Q1 GDP and consumer inflation on Thursday, could add fuel to volatility. On a wider perspective, Gold is showing some signs of weakness as it remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) which stands near $2,000. At the same time, it has avoided a daily close under $1,980. A close under the mentioned level would point to an extension of the bearish correction.

Blue lines- bullish channel Red lines- bearish divergence Gold price had a volatile day today Gold price had a volatile day today. Price made new lower lows at $1,968 briefly breaking below key short-term support of $1,990. Bulls stepped in and pushed price back above $1,990. A daily close below $1,990 would be a sign of weakness. As we mentioned in previous posts, the bearish RSI divergence suggests that there is limited upside potential and that price is vulnerable to a pull back. Our most probable target is the lower channel boundary around $1,900. Read next: Eightcap analyst after UK CPI: It is an interesting position now for the Bank of England., do they need to go back to a few 50-point hikes to cut into the CPI rate?| FXMAG.COM Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320527 Relevance up to 20:00 2023-04-20 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.