Jing Ren 05.12.2022

The Price Of Gold Could Fall Towards The Support Zone

The Price Of Gold Could Fall Towards The Support Zone

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.12.2022 08:24
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,798.81 with a bullish bias and it is likely that it could reach the August 10 high at about 1,807. Last week's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added 263,000 new jobs in November, above the consensus of 200,000. At the moment of knowing this data, the market reacted in favor of the dollar, which caused a fall in gold towards the area of 1,780. The market expects the Fed to soften its monetary policy in the short term. Thus, the market reacted against it and stopped taking refuge in the dollar, which benefited gold. Gold is likely to face a strong barrier this week, as it has strong resistance between the area of 1,807-1,812. According to the daily chart, we can see that gold is reaching extremely overbought levels, so we expect gold to have a strong rejection around the area of 1,807 - 1,812. The last barrier around 1,812 is located +2/8 Murray and acts as strong resistance and also represents the high for the month of June. In case gold falls below 1,812-1,807, we could have an opportunity to sell, with targets at 1,781 (+1/8 Murray) and the 200 EMA located at 1,760 (200 EMA). On the daily chart, we can see that gold has been trading within an uptrend channel since November 19. The metal is likely to find resistance around 1,810 and the price could fall towards the support zone of 1,750. In case this scenario occurs, gold could find a technical bounce around the 8/8 Murray and then resume its bullish bias. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for gold to reach resistance levels around 1,807-1,812 and wait for a consolidation to occur below this level to sell, with targets at 1,781 and 1,760. The eagle indicator is showing an extremely overbought signal which supports our bearish strategy   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303632
Central Banks Increased Their Buying Of Gold Significantly Over The Q3

Central Banks Increased Their Buying Of Gold Significantly Over The Q3

ING Economics ING Economics 03.12.2022 11:50
US dollar strength and central bank tightening have weighed heavily on the gold market in 2022. In the near term, there is room for more downside with further tightening expected. The medium-term outlook looks more constructive In this article US strength hits gold prices Record gold buying from central banks lifts global demand Chinese gold demand picks up, but Covid risks remain Gold to rebound slightly next year as Fed easing starts Shutterstock   US strength hits gold prices Spot gold is trading at its lowest levels in more than two years and has fallen more than 20% from its peak of above $2,000/oz in March as the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have raised rates to tackle inflation. The strengthening of the US dollar has hit sentiment across the commodities complex, including gold. The USD index has surged to a 20-year high. This strength is largely a result of the aggressive stance the Fed has taken in terms of monetary tightening to fight inflation. Real yields have also been climbing. Ten-year real US yields have reached their highest levels in more than a decade and are back in positive territory. Given the strong negative correlation between gold prices and real yields, gold has struggled in this rising yield environment. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which appears to be turning investors off the precious metal. Record gold buying from central banks lifts global demand So far this year central banks have continued to increase gold reserves. During times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation, banks appear to be turning to gold as a store of value.  The latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that central banks increased their buying of gold significantly over the third quarter. Central banks bought 399 tonnes in 3Q22, which is up 341% year-on-year and also a record quarterly amount. The data shows that Turkey, Uzbekistan, India and Qatar were the largest buyers of gold over the quarter, but a substantial amount of gold was also bought by central banks that did not publicly report their purchases. The WGC did not give any details on which countries these could be, although banks that do not regularly publish information about their gold stockpiles include China and Russia. The pace at which central banks have accumulated gold reserves this year has not been seen since 1967. Given the current environment is likely to persist, central banks are likely to continue to add to their gold holdings in the months ahead. The gold purchases made by central banks around the world constitute only a portion of the total demand for bullion, which also includes the consumption of jewellery, investments in gold bars, coins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and technology. Chinese gold demand picks up, but Covid risks remain Chinese gold demand suffered earlier in the year due to the Covid-related lockdowns, particularly over the second quarter of the year, which is when strict restrictions were in place across Shanghai and Beijing. According to WGC data, Chinese consumer demand was down 23% YoY over 1H22.  However, more recently, gold in China has been trading at a huge premium to international prices as improved demand exceeds the country’s imports, which are constrained by quotas. Only accredited banks in the country are allowed to import gold, with quantities set by the People’s Bank of China. The elevated Shanghai-London gold price spread has continued in October with the seven-day National Day holiday, a stable local price, weak renminbi and economic uncertainty supporting gold sales in Beijing and Shanghai, according to data from the WGC. However, fluctuating Covid-19 cases and subsequent lockdowns could weigh on gold sales in certain areas going forward.   For another key gold consumer, India, demand remained strong in October amid the onset of festivals and weddings season with both jewellery and bar and coin purchases boosted. Despite stronger consumer demand, gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by investment flows, for which the outlook is less constructive in the short term. Global gold ETF holdings saw their sixth consecutive monthly decline in October, standing at 3,490t (US$184bn) at the end of the month. North American funds led global outflows. In the third quarter, investment demand was down 47% year-on-year, as ETF investors responded to a challenging combination of markedly higher interest rates and a strong US dollar. Speculative positioning in COMEX gold further highlights the lack of investor interest – the latest COMEX exchange numbers showed that speculators in US gold futures were betting on lower prices, however, the number of the bets had declined. China's gold imports surge China premium/ discount to international gold ($/oz) China premium/ discount to internatational gold China's gold imports surge China non-monetary gold imports (tonnes)  China Customs, ING Research Gold to rebound slightly next year as Fed easing starts We expect gold to remain on a downward trend during the Fed’s ongoing tightening cycle. But while in the short term we see more downside for gold prices amid monetary tightening, any hints from the Fed of an easing in its aggressive hiking cycle should start to provide support to prices. For this to happen, we would likely need to see signs of a significant decline in inflation. We should see inflation coming off quite drastically over 2023 and this will then open the door for the Fed to start cutting rates over 2H23, according to our US economist.  Under the assumption that we see easing over 2H23, we expect gold prices to move higher over the course of 2023 with prices reaching $1,850/oz in 4Q23. ING forecasts ING research TagsGold Commodities Outlook 2023 Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Gold Market Posted A Significant Gain Overnight

The Gold Market Posted A Significant Gain Overnight

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.12.2022 13:18
Gold market is holding firm above $1,800 an ounce as recession fears continue to rise, and the manufacturing sector is on the verge of contraction, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Read next: If ECB policymakers should make a decision between fighting inflation and avoiding recession, they will likely choose fighting inflation says Ipek Ozkardeskaya| FXMAG.COM ISM said on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% last month, falling short of expectations from 50.2% in October. Economists had expected the value to be closer to the neutral level of 49.7%. Accordingly, the gold market posted a significant gain overnight, with recent disappointing economic data helping prices trade near session highs, adding 3.26% over the day. The report noted that activity in the manufacturing sector is now at its lowest level since May 2020. "With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous six months, the November composite index reading reflects companies' preparing for future lower output," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, in the report. The components of the report showed general weakness in the manufacturing sector. The New Orders Index fell below contractual agreements to 47.2% from 49.2% in October. At the same time, the Production Index fell to 51.5% compared to the previous figure of 52.3%. However, weaker activity also helps bring down inflation. The report said that the Prices Index fell to 43% from 46.6% in October. "This is the index's lowest reading since May 2020," the report says. Paul Ashworth, chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, said the data clearly shows the economy is stagnating and activity is expected to decline further. "Given the global economic weakness – particularly in China and Europe – we wouldn't be surprised to see the ISM manufacturing index decline further in coming months – leaving it consistent with a recession," he said.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/328807
Mood Ahead Of The US NFP Report Could Make The Silver’s Pullback

Mood Ahead Of The US NFP Report Could Make The Silver’s Pullback

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.12.2022 08:58
Silver price remains on pressured around intraday low after reversing from multi-day high. Overbought RSI triggered pullback but bears need validation from three-week-old horizontal support. XAG/USD bulls will wait for clear break of two-month-old resistance line for re-entry. Silver price (XAG/USD) snaps a three-day uptrend as it retreats from the highest levels since early May, marked the previous day, to $22.60 on Friday. Although the cautious mood ahead of the US employment report for November could be held responsible for the metal’s pullback, overbought RSI also teased intraday bears of the commodity. Furthermore, the failures to provide a sustained break of an upward-sloping resistance line from October add strength to the corrective moves. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since November 11, around the $22.00 threshold, restricts the short-term downside of the Silver price. Following that, a monthly support line near $21.25 appears the last defense of the XAG/USD buyers. In a case where the Silver price remains bearish past $21.25, the $21.00 and the late November lows near $20.60 should quickly return to the chart. Meanwhile, sustained trading beyond the two-month-old ascending resistance line, close to $22.75 by the press time, appears necessary to convince the Silver buyers. Even so, the $23.00 round figure and May’s high near $23.30 could act as extra filters to the north before giving control to the XAG/USD bulls. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  
Non-farm Payroll Data Is Likely To Generate Strong Volatility In Gold

Non-farm Payroll Data Is Likely To Generate Strong Volatility In Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.12.2022 08:13
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at 1,798, below the top of the bullish channel and showing some technical correction after a bullish rally during the American session on Thursday. Gold rose to 1,804.28, its highest since early August. XAU/USD was propped up by a prolonged dollar sell-off and falling Treasury yields. Gold started a bullish rally on Wednesday when it was trading at 1,750, after a dovish message from US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Currently, US Treasury yields continue to fall, keeping pressure on the US currency. In the next few hours, it is likely that Gold will have a strong technical correction and could fall towards +1/8 Murray located at 1,781. This level could trigger a new rally and the price could reach again the psychological level of 1,800 and even towards +2/8 Murray at 1,812. In case of a pullback to the top of the uptrend channel around 1,804 -1,812, it will be considered a signal to sell, with targets at 1,790 and 1,781. Below this level, we could expect a drop to the 21 SMA located at 1,760. In the 4-hour chart, we can see that Gold remains within an uptrend channel formed since November 18. Since it is reaching overbought levels, we can sell on the technical correction. A technical correction can be expected in the next few days towards the key area of 1,780, only if the asset trades below $1,812. Non-farm payroll data will be published early in the American session, this data is likely to generate strong volatility in gold and it could reach the resistance zone of 1,812. In case there is a rejection of this level, it will be the signal to sell with targets at 1,780 and 1,760.       Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-07 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303439
Crude oil gains on the back of hopes in China and OPEC+

Crude oil gains on the back of hopes in China and OPEC+

Ed Moya Ed Moya 01.12.2022 23:56
Oil Crude prices rallied as hopes grow that China will continue to loosen their COVID rules and on expectations that OPEC+ will do whatever it takes to keep oil prices supported. ​ Energy traders are eagerly awaiting an OPEC+ decision that could see them keep output steady or deliver a small cut. If China didn’t signal a slight covid easy shift, the probability of a production cut would have been much greater. ​ Oil should find a range as we await the OPEC+ decision. ​ Key levels for WTI crude include major resistance at $84.55 and key support at the $81.20 level. ​ Read next: There Is A Chance That The RBA Will Again Raise Rates By 25bp| FXMAG.COM Gold Gold prices catapulted above the $1,800 level as inflation cooled and on hopes that the Fed could soon be done tightening. ​ Tactical traders continue to send the dollar lower and that is good news for bullion. Gold had strong resistance at $1800 and if it can hold that post-NFP, bullish momentum could be strong. ​ Leading labor indicators have been mixed but overall support a weaker pace of hiring. ​ Unless the nonfarm payroll report shows companies are clearly still in hiring mode, gold could remain in rally mode. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil rallies as China eases covid rules, gold shines - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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